- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 20:13
farfel (@BILL2j...thanks for the compliment...) ID#17077: - ...I continue to enjoy reading your various posts.
THanks.
F*
- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 20:11
farfel (@MAX...responses....) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Farfel, is your scenario above sound? For example consider the probability of all these events actually happening sosuddenly that there would be no opportunity to react defensively:
1 ) What is the probability that both Rubin AND Greenspan would suddenly disappear and what would be the circumstance causing this?
( Thanks to Prez Hardon, we have attacked a group of Middle Eastern terrorists. Who knows who they may choose to target in retaliation? Anything's possible now ) .
2 ) Why would this cause populist panic? I can accept there would be an immediate strong negative reaction in financial markets, similar and short-lived as the reaction to Eisenhower's heart attack.
( Big difference between the Eisenhower years and today....we did not have the same absurd financial bubble back then....personal debt/leverage levels today are far higher than back then...a mutual fund industry controlling the stock market with a mere 3-5% cash level ( on average ) did not exist back then, etc., etc. Financial players regard Greenspan and Rubin as the primary foundation beneath this maniacal bull market. If they were suddenly out of the picture, the financial players would panic first, and their dumping would ultimately trigger a populist snowball ) .
3 ) Dollar plummeting and rise in interest rates? Why would the dollar have to plummet
( The American Dollar is the new ersatz GOLD in the global marketplace. If it suddenly plumments, then this new gold will prove to be a Fool's Gold ) .
- do you consider Rubin and Greenspan to be irreplacable saviours of some sort?
( Personally, I do not. However, Greenspan is regarded by Wall Street in Messianic terms...the guy that saved the Street back in '87 and most recently in '97. Rubin is considered Wall Street's Inside Boy in Prez Hardon's administration....someone who has and will always look after The Street's financial interests FIRST. Their sudden absence would cause massive coronaries all along The Street )
I'd like to believe that the POG would spike up somewhat, but given its past response to crisis events in the past year, an immediate stratospheric jump is illogical.
( Nonsense....POG has responded with huge spikes all over the world EXCEPT IN THE USA. Why? Because, as I mentioned before, the US Dollar is regarded as the New Gold. Therefore, at least for now, it has supplanted GOLD as the favored flight to safety in the hearts and minds of world citizens. This phenomenon is contingent upon Americans maintaining
unyielding Faith in both their economy and currency. THis Faith is based upon Americans' beliefs that world financial and currency crises are impossible here in America. When the American citizenry is finally confronted FIRST HAND with the economic contagion spreading across the world ( e.g., disappearing exports resulting in massive corporate layoffs, product shortages resulting from production shutdowns in foreign lands, etc. ) ...when ALL Americans become completely paranoid and suspicious of their political government, thanks to Prez Hardon's spate of duplicities and deceits... then and only then will Americans finally lose the Faith. When Americans lose it, then the rest of the world will also lose it. The US Dollar -- a currency based upon the good faith of the goverment -- will collapse in such a scenario and Americans, in an atavistic reaction, will desperately seek out the currency of last resort: GOLD ) .
Again I ask, shouldn't we try to check our fears of an immediate collapse that would prevent us from re-entering the gold market at a modest premium after a calamity ( assuming we can define a realistic one ) .
( Max, you have your strategy...and I have mine. I am a buy and hold guy where gold is concerned...in fact, if anything, I am a buy and buy more kind of guy based upon recent world developments. My strategy is based upon a fundamental belief that there will not be a good deal of time to act upon the initial gold thrust. You may be out at lunch one day and come back to find gold has moved limit up that day....with hundreds of thousands of buy orders preceding yours for the next day's open. If you doubt the plausibility of such a scenario, then I would suggest to you that gold is like a basketball pushed underwater, deeper and deeper these past few years. It has been held down by fiat currency governments who are hoping the general population will continue to regard bonds as the ONLY flight to safety. In other words, its natural equilibrium has been suppressed, most notably through gold leasing by Central Banks. Eventually, the controlling hand will slip and the ball will surge upward through the water, flying into the air.
I simply do not foresee a gradual movement upward in GOLD when its day finally arrives. GOld will announce its rebirth through a sharp, amazing spike never before seen.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 18:20
Bill2j (@Farfel) ID#259400: - Farfel, I miss your postings over on the other forum. Need to get a few to switch over here to liven things up a bit.
- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 18:19
Bill2j (Test) ID#259400: - Testing, testing
- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 16:01
farfel (Follow the Billionaires....Bass Purchase of 25% Freeport-McMoran...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...foreshadows a major disaster for gold shorts is just around the corner.
One of my only regrets in life is that I did not coat-tail the investment moves of the ingenious Bass Brothers. They have one of the most impressive investment records of any group of Billionaires. I imagine it must have something to do with their Yale pedigree ( yuk, yuk ) .
With their significant increase in the stock of Freeport-McMoran, I have no doubt we are about to witness a billionaire gang-bang on the gold shorts any day now.
You take three or four billionaires purchasing gold and silver inventories all at once and taking delivery and you have the makings of a gold/silver short panic of untold dimension.
Buffett, Soros, Bronfmans, and now the Bass Brothers....the billionaires are preparing a major assault upon gold and silver inventories.
This latest revelation represents the final validation of our patience as goldbugs.
Our Day in the Sun is finally here.
Peace of mind at last.
THanks.
F*
- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 13:13
Max__A (Farfel) ID#173148:
Copyright © 1998 Max__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - There is some essence of a comon denominator I think that we both share. I suspect that PTSS greatly influences within me ( wrongly ) a fear of impending dread - a dread of being helplessly annihilated. This condition is largely neurotic but nevertheless causes me to endlessly search for defenses that will alleviate this deep concern and give me protection. The ultimate defense, rationale or not, seems to lie in being a goldbug.
I see similar foreboding in your recent response to my questions:
Max - Are you suggesting that this could reverse tomorrow or next week or next month?
Farfel - Yes, on the spin of a dime. I believe in an existential world...namely, just because today was almost an identical replicant of yesterday does NOT mean tomorrow will bear any resemblance to today whatsoever ) .
Max - What sudden event could make it possible that I wouldn't have time to buy back in?
Farfel - ( Just one existential example ( and there are many ) : imagine Treasury Secretary Rubin and Fed Chair Greenspan...suddenly GONE! The result: Sheer populist panic. Dollar plummetting. Sudden hike in interest rates to defend the Dollar. Ergo, collapsing equities and bond markets. Precious Metals immediately perceived as the ONLY flight to safety. Jammed phone lines....lengthy lines in front of brokerage houses...in front of gold outlets...all kinds of tumult )
Farfel, is your scenario above sound? For example consider the probability of all these events actually happening so suddenly that there would be no opportunity to react defensively:
1 ) What is the probability that both Rubin AND Greenspan would suddenly disappear and what would be the circumstance causing this?
2 ) Why would this cause populist panic? I can accept there would be an immediate strong negative reaction in financial markets, similar and short-lived as the reaction to Eisenhower's heart attack.
3 ) Dollar plummeting and rise in interest rates? Why would the dollar have to plummet - do you consider Rubin and Greenspan to be irreplacable saviours of some sort? I'd like to believe that the POG would spike up somewhat, but given its past response to crisis events in the past year, an immediate stratospheric jump is illogical.
Again I ask, shouldn't we try to check our fears of an immediate collapse that would prevent us from re-entering the gold market at a modest premium after a calamity ( assuming we can define a realistic one ) .
- Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 00:31
farfel (@MAX...responses...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - First, I must say I like the name Max. Reminds me of an old friendly neighbor I once knew.
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Date: Mon Aug 24 1998 23:10
Max__A ( Farfel ) ID#173148:
Copyright © 1998 Max__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sometimes you make sense and then suddenly you lapse into a fearful illogical state.
( Actually, it just seems illogical. In fact, what you are perceiving
is simply the result of neuron synapses firing at a super-elevated level ) .
The following earlier quote of yours today speaks of a panicky environment. If there is any panic today, its that a gold retailer may refuse to buy gold ( at the rate things are going ) !
( Then, you must not deal with my retailer. He HATES checks, much prefers cash, and always takes at least a week to deliver gold to me. Still, I like his prices ) .
You are aware for example that the decline in gold stocks has exceeded the general market decline of the past few weeks?
( NOT my gold stocks...they are generally even from a month ago. However, if you factor in the extreme XAU dogs such as Royal Oak, etc., then yes, I agree the XAU index is tremendously disappointing ) .
Are you suggesting that this could reverse tomorrow or next week or next month?
( Yes, on the spin of a dime. I believe in an existential world...namely, just because today was almost an identical replicant of yesterday does NOT mean tomorrow will bear any resemblance to today whatsoever ) .
What sudden event could make it possible that I wouldn't have time to buy back in?
( Just one existential example ( and there are many ) : imagine Treasury Secretary Rubin and Fed Chair Greenspan...suddenly GONE! The result: Sheer populist panic. Dollar plummetting. Sudden hike in interest rates to defend the Dollar. Ergo, collapsing equities and bond markets. Precious Metals immediately perceived as the ONLY flight to safety. Jammed phone lines....lengthy lines in front of brokerage houses...in front of gold outlets...all kinds of tumult )
I expect it will become readily apparent that, relative to the ensuing demand, there is absolutely NO abundance of gold and gold coinage in the land. Moreover, I can assure you that a gold retailer WILL NOT take your check and make gold available to you in such a panicky environment. No way! You better have a lot of cash on hand and a good relationship established with a gold outlet. At the same time, Gold stocks may slingshot upward with such force ( given the relatively tiny size of the entire investment sector ) that you might have to pay several hundreds percent more for a viable gold stock than what you would pay for it today. In other words, the aggregate demand should far outweigh the suppply.
( I like the preceding paragraph. It makes sense ) .
Thanks.
F*
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