I also think the CRB is bottoming, but I wish to play the devil's advocate -- for the sake of my sanity. I fell like I need eyes in the back of my head.

For example, if you look at the trends of the available subindices that make up the CRB spot: Raw industrials, metals,textiles,foodstuffs,fat and oils,and livestock, you do see a strong deflationary downtrend with little evidence of a turnaround.

On the positive side, the CRB spot does have a 5-7 year cycle in it, and could very well bottom around this time -- like you I have bet on this. My sunspot work ( probably not really my own -- but I have convinced myself of the truth ) also indicates that US commodity prices tend to rise during rising sunspot periods such as now.

My question to you and gollum, and anyone else who thinks he/she can answer: How do we really know what we aren't at the edge of a deflationary cliff -- and we are just experiencing a bear market rally in commodities? My tentative answer to this -- and I am not completely sure -- is that the deflationary events of SEAsia have mostly played themsleves out, and as long as Europe and South America hold together, commodity prices ( for now ) are heading up. Also, historically the US Fed has stepped in and prevented 'wholesale' deflationary drops in commodity prices since we went off the gold standard.

If however, Brazil or Europe head south in a big way, worldwide commodity prices will continue their bearish slide. Or -- if AG etal become too fixated on preventing the next inflationary period -- they might not inflate the US dollar quickly enough to prevent a liquidity collapse, with similar catastrophic consequences.

Comments from those who are undoubtedly more knowledgable about such matters than I?

Lets understand this. Europe buys gold to top up to the 30%, and US Sells gold to keep it under $300!! Either Greenspan is too smart, or he is under some influence.

I realize this is too simple, so what am I missing?

I don't know for sure which is which, though I suspect that we should be looking at external reserves for the Euro, and internal reserves for all of the current non-Euro trade. I would guess that if we are able to decipher the mumbo-jumbo, we will find that total gold reserves ( internal and external ) are not that 43% or so. I suspect it will be closer to the 15% we have already heard about.

But -- if the Euro falters, they will bring up the reserves -- namely whatever is necessary to make the Euro launch a success. That might include 'buying' gold -- which would make the price of gold go up -- and boost the Euro at the same time, since the Europeans have such considerable gold reserves to boost their currency. It will be interesting to see what the US FED does in a down-and-out shooting matche between the Euro and the US dollar.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990106/V000774-010699-idx.html

Wm Rhenquist ( presiding ) is touted as being scrupulously fair, and I suspect the Republican Senators will be just as fair as the Republican House members. It is likely that the Dems will again be boisterous.

Just wait till WJC is labeled as a 'deadbeat dad' as AURIC ( I think ) predicted last Jan 1998. If the current child is not identified as his, the next one almost certainly will, since WJC's DNA is now public record. The tide is turning! Please beware a sudden market downturn, probably within the next three to six months. The suction then could bring down all equities. Until then -- likely good gold bug Tsunami surfing. And my opinion is worth just what you paid for it!

All: I hope everyone had a nice holiday -- without too much excitement! This year looks like many cycles are coalescing to make our favorite topic go up -- but we are likely to have a few deflationary bumps on the way. Still got dry powder? Paying off debt?

I don't know how much longer our equity rally will last, but it does look like the ( mini ) Gold equity rally is still intact. Commodities could be bottoming in the US -- for now, anyway.

If we can avoid an outright Oct 97 type market correction, gold equities should do well this year! A two year gold bear will turn around eventually -- with a vengeance.

We gold bug Tsunami surfers have to see in all directions -- like Quan Yin --- that aspect of Budda.

Still have some dry powder? Not the chilly white kind.

All: My heart goes out to these Russians. I nearly got stranded in Toronto during a snowstorm, only to find out that the power in MidAmerica hometown was off for 2 days. I was lucky -- neighbors were not -- frozen people and pipes. It seems that the Utility deregulation has reduced the service capability of our local companies.

And -- this is not y2k -- yet.

Russia is already having their y2k crisis -- I pray that they do not have mass starvations this winter.

I do not know how long this trial will last, and I do agree with our congressmen that the topic of sex is not a pleasant one to discuss publically -- even if the real issue is lying.

I think the Senate trial may develop a life of its own -- especially if WJC is dumb enough to fight the charges. If he does,he will only galvanize the Senate, just as he galvanized the House.

If the Senate falters, I would guess that a few more bombshells will be leaked to the press. Kenneth Starr does not have to do this -- after the Monicagate affair, the floodgates have opened. I am amazed that WJC apparently does not see the writing on the wall -- I suspect Hillary does. Perhaps WJC is hanging in there for the Al Gore Jan 99 deadline, or because he fears criminal prosecution. What a fitting trap that KS has set -- either intentionally or not!

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990105/V000258-010599-idx.html

All: I am honored to be able to post at this site, partially because so many of us understand why telling the truth does matter. My guess is that is one characteristic of a gold bug. The price of gold has always remained an indicator of the truth in the nature of fiat currency affairs. Even the information/computer/derivative revolution has not been able to alter the intrinsic value of gold, and no one has been able to subvert the price of gold by creating an unlimited 'supply', no matter how hard they have tried.

Too bad there is no 'gold standard' for politicians. All that we have is our own human internal sense of justice, and that is so easily subverted by cunning, pathological liars. We -- the human race -- are learning -- slowly. Perhaps I will still live long enough to see humans reach for the stars.

I don't think Matt Drudge jumped the gun on this one. If WJC is a 'dead beat dad' -- and the charge sticks, he is history. I find it interesting that one of the most talented, charismatic, versatile presidents we have ever had is being brought down by his own lies. It is reassuring to learn that telling the truth still matters, even for those who try to define 'truth' as it is defined in a court of law.

Perhaps humans are now sufficiently sophisticated that they can recognize an anti-Christ. Fortunately WJC is not quite there -- for our sakes, and for the sake of the World.

http://www.drudgereport.com/matt1.htm

This is something I never considered. WJC's DNA is now a matter of public record. It is only a matter of time before something like this happens -- If not the Williams boy, it will be another child -- with DNA analysis to confirm paternity. And -- WJC has denied having affairs with at least one hundred women -- all 'trash' too, according to his PR people.

It does not matter whether the Senate has the stomach to try and convict WJC. He will be convicted in the court of public opinion -- just like OJ Simpson. Yes -- I have ethical problems with this -- but strangely I do not care. I guess what really matters is still the truth.

Hats off again to Matt Drudge -- a man who answers to no media moguls -- only to himself. I hope other media professionals will see the message, and realize that they too must answer to their own consciences, and not just to their bosses.

I think we should invest accordingly -- this is too big for AG to contain -- Gold will rise, and the US markets will fall. Perhaps not tomorrow, or even a month from now -- but the writing is on the wall. After the dust settles and the WJC issues are behind us, the US markets will recover -- but probably not till well after y2k.