- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:56
FOX-MAN (RJ; I'm certainly not an expert on technical analysis, but it sure seems like Platinum) ID#330280: - has re-tested the low 340's area recently, and is now rebounding from there! I would agree that this adds to the bullish future of PGM's in the new year. Any thoughts and/or agreements?
( To re-iterate what you have said, You can't hold prices down on a commodity that commercially demands higher prices! )
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:56
John Disney (volume ) ID#24135: - to all ..
the volume in gold and silver trading seems VERY
light. Perhaps we shouldnt draw too many conclusions
from price action over this period.. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:53
tolerant1 (Listening to some really wacked (ABC) out conversations about savings and how WE need) ID#20359: - to keep spending in the USA to help support the fragile world economy...I am amazed...geez Louise...we be goin down the tubes with their thinking...
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:44
RJ (..... JD .....) ID#411259: -
Indeedy, miners striking in SA is almost as common as the US bombing Iraq ( or anyone else that could divert attention ) and unlikely to benefit the POP unless it drags on for months. Previous strikes over the last few years have sparked mini rallies but the fundamental picture is still a strong one. Platinum needs to go up, its too damn cheap for what it does, and for what history has shown us it should be.
Maybe I should go on strike for a few days this week
I could use some more vacation
Yes
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:36
RJ (..... PGMs Truths .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
ArmGold -
Your post of 19:10 seems to follow some logic of sorts, but this logic has very little to do with reality. I am not trying to beat you down, but you assumptions concerning PGMs are misguided at best. Perhaps you could check out the Johnson Matthey Semi-Annual PGM report. The CPM Group and the Platinum Guild International could get you started of pretty well also. Ask for Aran Murphy at the Platinum Guild, he can give you some recent info. Tell him you had a disagreement with RJ about PGM fundamentals and you just want to get things straight.
Perhaps if you examined your arguments more closely, the inherent fallacies within would have been noticed by you before publication.. You speak of potential platinum underground reserves and others here have already addressed the difference twixt gold and platinum mining. I believe you spoke of 100 million ounces underground. An inconvenient place that, all that digging and moving of earth just to get at a few crumbs-o-platinum. There is, however, an enormous stockpile of gold hoarded into vaults. 37,000 tons of the stuff in central bank vaults alone. That is more than a BILLION ounces of gold in its purest and refined state. All of which could be sold with just the decision to do so. No digging here, its already been dug. Open the door and sell. And they have done this of late, yes?
Conversely, out of the just over 5 million ounces of yearly platinum production, only 8% ever finds its way into private investor's hands. The only stockpile that could be identified is a bunch of small piles in Japan amounting to about 8 - 10 months supply of the metal. Producers tend to sit on much less. Nobody knows how much the Russians have, but the last three years have shown the largest producer of palladium, and the second largest producer of platinum, unable to ship the stuff. Ostensibly, they are unwilling to sell because of bureaucratic snafus, but I find it hard to imagine a country on the precipice of a total bankrupt collapse passing up the highest prices in history for palladium. Sales of palladium would bring in desperately needed US dollars to shore up their economy. But no sales come, or they trickle in like a ghost of their former quantities.
Platinum is the rarest of all the noble metals and only in the rarest and briefest of times did gold ever rise above platinum. When gold has risen above platinum, a long platinum / short gold spread play has never failed. Platinum will always rise above gold, and do it faster. Last I checked, no government on earth was requiring their citizens to own gold, the violation of which is punishable under the law. Yet nearly half the world has laws requiring catalytic converters on cars. No converter, no sale. Platinum and palladium are the only two metals available in sufficient quantities to be used in this application. Since Johnson Matthey has reported a 1 million ounce shortfall in palladium supplies this year, and the entire auto catalyst industry uses slightly over 4 million ounces of palladium per year, this would put the industry in a bit of a bind, yes? Platinum is the only metal the could effectively replace the palladium. It is now the cheaper alternative, it is more effective ( with a much higher melting point ) , and it is available in great quantities from South Africa - who, quite apart from the Russians, know how to treat a customer. A shortage of 1 million ounces of palladium would amount to the equivalent use of just under 500K ounces of platinum. A ten percent increase in demand. This market cannot supply half that.
True…… SA mines are very good at getting the stuff up and refined and delivered, but they are producing at max capacity now. Increased production would take a couple of years to reach the market and would require vast new expenditures from the producers to dig new holes, buy new equipment, and pay more miners. This is not likely to be done within 9% of a historic low in platinum. Only much higher prices will increase production. Since the average low for platinum over the last 13 years is 378, and the average high is 512, one could say that platinum at 358 is way too low.
The whole of your post was filled with inaccuracies. Again, I am not responding to bash you, but this is a metals forum and some of your suppositions just don't hold water. I was impressed with your argument which, on the face, seemed to make a lotta' sense. But the facts conspire against you -- and thinking something is so does not make it so.
OK
PS
Here is a piece of trivia to match LGB's 25 foot square of platinum: The stuff is so dense that a 6 inch cube of the stuff weighs as much as the average man. I have no idea what the weight of the average man is these days, so somebody else can do the math.
I'm too tired
OK
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:31
FOX-MAN (Silverbaron; Wasn't it you that provided the temporary login to Market Projections?) ID#330280: - Well, it finally has expired. I was getting kinda used to reading the EWT
projections from Peter DeSario! He seemed to have a good handle on the S&P, T-Bonds, Silver, and Gold. I hope his projection of gold bottoming
around 285 to 288 holds before it's big countertrend move UP to the projected minimum of 325 or more...I realize others are still looking at
the 270ish level before gold moves up, but I'm not sure my confidence/nerves can handle it!! - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:22
Envy (China Economy Grew 7.8 Pct. in 1998) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - BEIJING ( AP ) -- Boosted by massive state spending on public works, China's economy grew by 7.8 percent this year but missed its official target, according to initial year-end figures released Wednesday. Growth was down from 1997, when the economy expanded by 8.8 percent. Chinese leaders had hoped for at least 8 percent growth to create jobs for the millions of workers who were laid off in a sweeping overhaul of state industry. The economy expanded by only 7 percent in the first six months of the year. That prompted Chinese leaders to implement a $1.4 trillion, three-year stimulus plan of spending on new highways and other projects, according to the State Statistical Bureau. The economy subsequently picked up, growing 9 percent in the final three months of the year, the Statistical Bureau estimated. Growth was also helped by China's efforts to loosen lending by state banks. Ye Zhen, a spokesman for the Statistical Bureau, declined at a press conference to give a growth forecast for 1999. He said it would be released by the National People's Congress early next year. Exports were almost unchanged from 1997 at $182 billion, while imports fell 3.8 percent to $137 billion. That left China with a trade surplus of $45 billion, up $4.7 billion from last year.
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1g.htm
--
When the Statistical Bureau of a Communist country estimates something for an internation press release, well, I just don't know. Hmm. I wouldn't bet the farm on it. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:21
FOX-MAN (Silverbaron & Tom; Speaking of getting looks at the check-out counter...) ID#330280:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - You think you're getting looks when you're buying large quantities of T/P at the check-out counter? How about the paranoid feeling I get? Picture this... I'm buying T/P, canned goods, etc, in large quantities, and I can't help but think the clerk see's that I'm single ( no ring on the ole hand ) ! She ( if it's a she ) probably thinks I have a helluva diahria ( spelled right? ) problem!! Oh well...
BTW, I've been collecting those new 20 doller bills ( for stashing ) lately.
Anyone having problems getting them? It seems the ATM from my bank still
spits out the old style bills...
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:14
Envy (Tokyo Stocks Close Lower) ID#219363: - TOKYO ( AP ) -- The dollar rose marginally against the yen Wednesday in thin, year-end trading. Share prices closed lower in the last trading session of 1998. The dollar bought 115.64 yen at late morning, up 0.28 yen from late Tuesday and also above its level of 115.53 yen in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 4.73 points, or 0.03 percent, to finish at 13,842.17 points. On Tuesday, the average closed up 137.84 points, or 1.01 percent.
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1h.htm
--
Has she hit bottom ? Nah ... - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:10
Envy (Today's Job Cuts) ID#219363: - Conoco Cutting Nearly 1,000 Jobs
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0b.htm
Nomura Securities To Cut 650 Jobs
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1f.htm
LA Times Finalizes Job Cuts
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1b.htm - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 23:01
6pak (Control Central phoney @ Russian citizen/worker/taxpayer accept such CONTROL EH!) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - RUSSIA 29 December 1998
FOUR OUT OF FIVE RUSSIANS SAY LIFE BECOMING HARDER
A December poll of 1600 Russians found that 82 percent believe that their lives have become more difficult over the past year, Interfax reported on 28 December.
Asked by the Public Opinion Fund to name the three most important events of 1998, 43 percent said the August financial crisis, 32 percent volunteered the murder of Duma Deputy Galina Starovoitova, and 30 percent indicated the growing inflation. PG
FYODOROV CALLS 1999 BUDGET UNREALISTIC...
Boris Fyodorov, the former finance minister and deputy premier, told a Moscow news conference on 28 December that the state budget given preliminary approval by the Duma on 25 December was based on phoney assumptions, Interfax reported.
He suggested that inflation would be at least double what the budget assumed, that the ruble-dollar exchange rate would fall much further than projected, and that there is no reason to expect any economic growth in 1999.
And Fyodorov said that the recent printing of at least 10,000 million rubles meant that the situation could get out of hand within the next few months.
The leader of the Forward Russia political party said his group will issue a detailed forecast in January 1999. PG
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/1-rus.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:50
Cmax (@BCIWNDate: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:48) ID#344205: - BCIWN: Do you have a source that can be confirmed for that quote from Greenspan? Boy I would love it if he really said that.
No sir, I was requoting the post from Africanminer, and ( indirectly ) directing the same question to him.
tolerant1: incoming
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:50
TYoung (Silverbaron...your slow on the paper products...) ID#370218:
Copyright © 1998 TYoung/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I have always done as you, bought the T/P, paper towels. tissue etc. on sale and in bulk. Say you need t/p...call me in 2001...I'll still have some if I stop buying now...wife just gives me that same look I got when I bought gold coins last January...Hmmmm.
I'm way behind you on canned goods...will catch up in February. If Y2k is a non-event we probably will not even see a store to shop for at least four or more months...except for cigs and beer...w/out permission. : )
Anybody for Jet Fuel for the kerosene lamps and heaters? Yes, it is just high grade kerosene. What the heck do you do with that stuff in 2000 if the lights stay on? Romantic evenings...not a bad idea. Glad I ( she ) thought of that....right.
Brother oris...thanks...again.
Tom
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:46
John Disney (strikes..) ID#24135: - for longj..
I wounldn't lose too much sleep over the
strike at amplat .. strikes in rsa at christmas
are normally to get a little extra holiday .. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:46
Charles Keeling (@ Oliver RE: Gold Manipulation) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - This subject has certainly had a lot af attention lately.
It is very real. AG has admitted the manipulation publickly.
The Hedge Funds need to unwind. Obviously they are too big to
fail. The Feds are helping them to do this. Hopefully a
target date has been set. SURELY.....this year end the hedge
funds will take their PROFITS that have been provided to them
by our government, and GOLD will again be free.
Remember that when things are controlled by the government, a huge
demand builds up. As soon as the controls come off, a surge of demand develops. ALL things governmentally controlled are sooner
or later released from control. The demand is apparent now.
Palladium higher than Gold? Silver at 5.00 and Gold at 287.00?
Things are just not right. It is obvious.
1998 was a bummer for GOLD manipulation. It can not last.
AG has given the hedge funds time enough in my books. They need
to take profits NOW and get out of the Gold Carry trade. Hopefully
the CB'S have learned a lesson, as if any one connected to the
government ever does learn a lesson. Any one short gold right
now who can not cover is in DEEP trouble. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:27
Oliver (Good night all) ID#242325: - Desesperado!
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:21
6pak (USofA and Euro and GOLD @ WWII AND MARSHALL PLAN --50 YEARS (FYI)) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Today, Americans think nothing of the fact that the dollar is universally accepted in all 50 states and its value is largely stable.
However, it is important to remember that the dollar is a fiat currency or a currency backed only by government decree.
As long as people believe that the government will continue to enforce sound monetary policy, the dollar will remain a viable currency.
S P E C I A L R E P O R T
Everything You Need to Know
About Europe's New Currency
The Euro
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Setting the Stage for the Single Currency
By Lionel Barber
European Central Bank to Play Leading Role
By Bruce Barnard
Countdown to the Euro
By Bruce Barnard
An Interview with European Commissioner Yves-Thibault de Silguy
The Euro: The View from America
By Martin Walker
A Brief History of the Dollar
By Peter Gwin
Welcome to our second EUROPE Special Report: The Euro: Europe's New Currency. This edition gives our readers the who, what, why, where, when, and how of the euro. We explain everything you need to know about Europe's single currency.
The trend is clearly toward a united Europe, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told reporters at the celebration of the fiftieth anniversary of the Marshall Plan in the Hague. The single currency may or may not happen. But I don't think this is a measure of whether there is a united Europe.
During the middle part of the century, gold remained the bedrock of international finance.
In the wake of the Allied victory in World War II, delegates from 44 countries, who had gathered near Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, signed an agreement setting in place a new world economic order.
According to the agreement, most of the world's currencies were pegged to the dollar, which was in turn backed by gold.
http://www.eurunion.org/magazine/eurospec.htm - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 22:15
Nocte Volens (Oliver) ID#39285:
Copyright © 1998 Nocte Volens/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - With respect, if we only discussed what might end the manipulation ( a very important subject I agree ) , many on this forum ( myself included ) would lose out on the vast knowledge available and so generously shared by many learned participants here at Kitco. I often feel lost and occasionally overwhelmed by all the factors influencing gold's price. When I first bought gold shares in 95/96 I did very well. After the share prices melted down 70-90% I bought back in thinking how much lower can they go...after all they're near all time lows...A lot lower as it turns out. In any case, if it were not for the wise voices here at Kitco, I might have dumped my shares and bought something stupid like internet stocks...wait, that would have worked out ok. Anyway, I for one find tremendous value in learning as much as possible about all aspects of gold and hope that the discussion here remains as varied as possible. IMVHO
: ) - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:56
squeezer (oliver is right...) ID#29036:
Copyright © 1998 squeezer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - for months i have enjoyed your collective lamenting over the price of gold and the factors contributing to it. traditionally, i make fiancial investments based upon past performance, especially performance linked to the last 24 months.
but every month, whether i want to or not, i write a check to the insurance company. the money goes down a black hole, usually never to be seen again, unless i really need it, perhaps in dire circumstances.
this is how i view the ownership of my paltry few ounces. i sleep better with this attitude.
happy new year to all! - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:55
Silverbaron (To ALL) ID#290456: -
Thanks for providing the suggestions, ideas, links, etc. for a website to contain SILVER info. Keep 'em coming - your input is very much appreciated. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:47
yellowcab (that greenspan article most likely a hoax) ID#18355: - imho, no source, poster hit the yahoo boards and hid. a joke.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:36
APH___b (Correct Quotes) ID#255226: - Which quote is correct? Kitco says pt is down $2.00 and Mrci says
it is up $2.50. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:28
Gazebo (Oliver..........) ID#432298: - I am in complete agreement in that we should discuss the root of Gold's
incarceration for so long. We need to discuss how to set it free from the restraints imposed on it by the policy makers and central banks in power. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:20
neer-do-well (Sorors?) ID#391172: - Afew days ago Soros made some remarks on the Charlie Rose show which indicated his view that the finnancial relationships globably needed an overhaul to prevent the very thing he was doing. Gold was the answer he suggested alto you had to listen carefully to get it.
He is a credible advisor on such matters, no? If it comes thru he should be rewarded with his hread on the first global gold coin. yes? Yes. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:18
robnoel (refer...the mint has stopped production of 98 Silver Eagles....99 Eagles) ID#413273: - both gold and silver will begin in January....DAH!.....however they will not ship to suppliers till Easter......some say they stopped minting silver and gold because they had to set up the pressers for the new quarters...take your pick.....IMHO get it while you can....
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:17
Cueball (Silverbaron, Maybe this will be of assisttance.) ID#344286:
Copyright © 1998 Cueball/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/text.html#silver
http://www.swiftsite.com/veritas/silver.htm
http://www.roskill.co.uk/silver.html
http://www.wire.net.au/~jsmith/
http://www.the-moneychanger.com/html/metals_commandments.html
http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-6423772
http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/silver.htm
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:14
tolerant1 (Clintler's poling of America...) ID#20359: - http://www.tahoe.com/appeal/stories.12.29.98/opinion/1ackefordec29Dec4470.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:09
Tantalus Rex (US BUYING GOLD TO SUPPORT THE DOLLAR) ID#295111:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus Rex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Anyone know the author and media source below?
NEW YORK - U.S. TREASURY TO BUY GOLD ON OPEN MARKETS. Allen Greenspan said Tuesday in
response to The EURO “There will have to be a new currency--a new dollar--with something behind it to
restore confidence. The one commodity, which has been a reliable, universally accepted basis for monetary
confidence for thousands of years is Gold. And so, gold will have to be used in setting up a new system of
stable international currencies, including a new dollar.” However, the Federal Reserve System was relieved of
any responsibility in 1971 by President Nixon, whom closed the international gold window, discontinuing
settlement of international debts in gold, as the U.S. Treasury Department was made physical custodian of all
U.S. gold stocks. With the EURO Dollar having a gold backing of 15% the U.S. is going to have to respond. It
hasn’t been since 1968 when President Johnson signed into law an act removing the final 25% gold backing
requirement from the dollar. The need for a strong world currency couldn’t be more evident. Talk in
Washington D. C. is of a growing need to return to a partial gold backing for the Dollar. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:06
tolerant1 (Cmax, Namaste', gulp and a puff to ya...Happy Holidays...) ID#20359: - email me when you get the chance...tolerant1@earthlink.net
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:05
Gollum (Charts) ID#43352: - http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/crb.gif
http://www.securitytrader.com/daily/zgold.gif - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:01
Oliver (I cannot understand) ID#242325: - Why nice peoples on this great forum still continue to monitor charts and
stories about Gold while the whole sheebang is Manipulated outright with
nothing left of a so called free market on the yellow matter..?
Please lets talk only about what could stop the MANIPULATION.
Otherwise I feel we are loosing our precious time here.
In God ...oops gold we trust...
Perhaps ....if the Chimere die. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:01
refer (golden eagles) ID#41247: - Was wondering if there is any news on golden eagles not scheduled for mint in 99. Was told by a dealer of a well known house about this, they stated that this is the first time that they have heard of this kind of annoucement, and that eagles were carring a $2 higher premium over other bullion coins.
Was curious if anybody has heard of this? ( Have a hard time believing salespeople when their lips move! ) - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:01
Selby (The Y2K Secret) ID#286230: - My 80 year old mother and an 83 year old uncle were quizzing me on Christmas day about what I knew about the Y2k issue. I think rather than being totally unaware they seemed unfamiliar with the proposed problems it may bring. No thought of shortages developing for food or other consumables. I expect the media will use the Y2K matter after the end of January to fill in the time now devoted to the Prez. Watch the hype rise and the tuna disappear when that starts.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 21:00
refer (golden eagles) ID#41247: - Was wondering if there is any news on golden eagles not scheduled for mint in 99. Was told by a dealer of a well known house about this, they stated that this is the first time that they have heard of this kind of annoucement, and that eagles were carring a $2 higher premium over other bullion coins.
Was curious if anybody has heard of this? ( Have a hard time believing salespeople when their lips move! ) - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:43
gagnrad (theme investor re your idea) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I like your idea except for one small detail, well actually a large idea. Do you have any idea how big is 5000 ounces of silver? Well, 1000 ounces weighs roughly 70 pounds and fits in a space the size of a milk jug, making it difficult to store in a bank drawer. 5000 ounces weighs about 350 pounds, which will fit nicely in your car trunk but weigh the springs down worse than if you had your mother in law in there. Maybe not as noisy, but probably just as inconvenient. 10,000 ounces would make a nice sailboat keel fin but then the screws would rust due to electrolytic action and it would fall off and disappear 10 feet into the mud at the bottom of the lake never to be seen again. IMHO of course.
I do like the idea I heard here a few days ago, to use the JM bars to tile the bathtub. Would work fine as long as the floor joists didn't give way. IMHO - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:39
Silverbaron (TYoung) ID#290456:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
And before the supermarket, I hit the Target store
for $70 worth of Paper towels and Toilet paper.
No comments or funny looks there....but then I
always buy this stuff in bulk when it's on sale.
Almost completed with my canned goods
stocking....have been working at this since
September or so. But I see no evidence that a lot of people are doing anything much yet. You're
probably right - 3 to 6 months and everybody will
be at it....by September the shortages will start
to be acute.
Heck of a yard sale, you say - maybe, but at least we won't have much of a grocery bill in 2000, eh? - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:36
Reify (Allen USA) ID#413109: - Re: yur comments y2k, would like to discuss these further with
you please email me so I may ask questions. Reify@sitcom.co.il
Happy New Year to all.
If gold and XAU continue up from these levels, my call on the
day was pretty good. Short term record had not been anything to
be proud of, but long term is the name of the game. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:18
kapex (.) ID#218215: - http://markets.tradingtech.com/Financials/SP/SPDaily/SPD/SPD_0.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:17
Snowball (@Silverbaron & TYoung (Y2K awareness)) ID#290213:
Copyright © 1998 Snowball/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I think the public is becoming more aware than most realize. They just aren't talking about it because they're not too sure what to think of it yet. All three of my son-in-laws brought up the subject this Christmas. I have mentioned it to them in the past, but not at great length. They all seem to be waking up. Considering the oldest is 25, and an aircraft mechanic, one is a cabinet maker, and one dropped out of school and works in a factory and none with computer skills or experience. I think that says much for how much the word is spreading.
I heard comments on I think gold and silver is going to be the only safe place to have your money and I wish I knew just how much preparation I should take for Y2K. The word is getting around as Tyoung stated, 3 to 6 mos and I think the picture will change considerably, whether Y2K is for real or not. Things will start to get scarce and expensive. Just my opinion. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:17
TYoung (Theme Investor...) ID#317237: - There were over 5,000 delivery notices each for both gold and silver on Comex for just December 1998. I don't know how this all works but I ran the numbers and either delivery is not made, the name just changes on the non-eligible, cash is used to settle or there is a whole lot more gold and silver out there than we know about.
Food for THOUGHTS.
Tom - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 20:06
Theme Investor (Silverbaron....Silver Web Page Suggestions) ID#372400:
Copyright © 1998 Theme Investor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - What is needed is 300 people who will commit to taking delivery on a silver contract, and also get 3 other people to do likewise, and then those 3 other people do the same....and then, one more time. In this way, you'd have 300 + 900 + 2,700 + 8,100 = 12,000 people buying 5,000 ounces of silver each = 60,000,000 ounces, taken delivery of, at a cost of approximately $25,000 to $30,000 per contract.
With the Comex inventory situation as it is on silver, we'd get the ball rolling ourselves, and probably save some silver miners, and maybe save our silver miner stock investments, as well as make some money on them.
I've been amazed that some rich person or entity hasn't followed up on Buffetts' purchase over a year ago of his 130 million ounces of silver.
For that matter, I've been amazed that Buffett hasn't bought more. The situation is ready to go, all that is needed is the spark. I know that demand is down somewhat for silver, but the 1998 deficit is still reported to be more than 150 million ounces anyway, and supply is not going to balance demand any time soon, it appears.
Someone has said that when the Comex silver stocks go below 50 million ounces, we should start to see some fireworks on the silver price.
So....Silverbaron.....if you do start a web page.....how about calling it Silver Challenge......or incorporate some form of such. I'm sick and tired of seeing silver and the mining stocks slowly wither away, in light of the fundamentals. The shorts can keep selling 'paper' contracts til doomsday, but if enough people take delivery of the metal, and don't lease it, I think we'll see some action.....short covering and producer buying for inventory. The risk on taking delivery is minimal....if silver goes down $1 per ounce, you lose $5,000....if you sell. If you hold it and don't sell it, you lose nothing, and in time will probably make some money on it, as well as on your other silver investments. The upside is pretty good it seems to me. When the Hunts did their thing, it ran pretty good, of course times were different then, with inflation taking off. I have no problem taking delivery of a contract, and believe I can 'sell' 3 other people to do the same, and so forth......if we can get 299 other people to COMMIT to do the same. Maybe someone can figure out how it could be done without taking delivery of the actual metal ? Here's the plan......you figure out how to implement it into your web page and make it work, if you think the idea has any merit, or if you can think of some other and/or better way of doing it. All it really is is a Silver Cooperative MLM plan, where people buy silver direct themselves, to affect and enhance their other silver investments also. Good luck........
( you could do a similar thing with Pt also, etc..... ) - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:49
MoReGoLd (@Kaplan is dumfounded) ID#348286: - PEOPLE ARE STRANGE: On Tuesday, December 29, 1998, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 closed at 32.60, a new all-time record.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:48
BCIWN (@CMAX) ID#206298: - Do you have a source that can be confirmed for that quote from Greenspan? Boy I would love it if he really said that.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:47
TYoung (Silverbaron...) ID#317237:
Copyright © 1998 TYoung/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - That is why you have three to six more months to buy necessities. Got T/P, tissues, paper towels, kerosene containers, food, water containers, ammo, deep cycle batteries.....and on and on.
BTW...buy your fuel containers early. Your friendly federal government has decreed that to get fuel, such as kerosene, you need a blue container, approved, and clearly marked...you guessed it, KEROSENE. Just so you don't drink from it by mistake.
Try buying an Aladdin lamp lately? Good luck! Food, you have some time, other things are a little tight.
Hell of a garage sale in 2000 if the lights stay on.
Tom - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:42
MoReGoLd (@Here's another direct casualty of the CB/hedge-fund manipulation-for-profit of GOLD ) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The honest hardworking guy ( Gal in this case ) Looses...
Royal Oak edges toward bankruptcy
WebPosted Tue Dec 29 13:59:49 1998
TORONTO - Royal Oak Mines is one step closer to bankruptcy. The troubled gold miner defaulted on a debt payment to a Vancouver creditor.
One of the company's main creditors, Vancouver-based Northgate Explorations Ltd., confirmed Tuesday that Royal Oak failed to make payments on $35 million in senior secured debt financing that was arranged earlier this year.
The money was lent to Royal Oak so that it could finance its Kemess Mine in British Columbia. But low gold prices have caused Royal Oak's cash flow to disintegrate.
Last week, the company warned creditors it was halting payments and said it hopes to refinance all of its nearly $320 million debt by a February 15th deadline.
Royal Oak operates the low-cost Kemess gold mine in British Columbia as well as several higher-cost gold mines. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:33
Spock (Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:30 Cage Rattler) ID#210114: - Very amusing story about the guy who drove his car into a river under the aid of satellite navigation.
It reminds me of economists; they get so caught up with their theories that they ignore the real world.
Live Long and Prosper. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:32
Speed (Web site with info on elements) ID#29048: - All you ever wanted to know about Au, Pt, etc. and more...
http://www.shef.ac.uk/chemistry/web-elements/Pt/key.html - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:25
Spock (farfel: I actually agree with this comment but............) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - @SPOCK....although I realize that you are one of the more prolific posters on KITCO with
respect to negative postings on gold's value, nevertheless, I think you would agree with me
that your last post of Dec.28 RE: European Central Banks to Sell More gold is somewhat
deceptive. The article from the Financial Review simply states that various European Central
banks will have gold reserves left over after they make their obligatory gold contributions to
the ECM's aggregate reserves. Based on that fact, the article assumes that European Central
Banks will sell more gold. However, what is logically absurd about the article is that
European Central Banks have known for many months now that they will have residual gold
reserves after their respective contributions...and there has been nothing to prevent them from
selling these leftover reserves to date. So, then why should they suddenly be more impelled to
sell them in '99 than in '98? Moreover, once again, the piece makes no mention of which
central banks would be buyers of the sold gold. So, essentially, the entire piece is little more
than another bit of anti-gold propaganda.
My point is this: while the ECB and others publicly declare their intentions towards gold, these sort of rumours are going to undermine the gold market. Till they declare their position, there will be no gold bull.
Live Long and Prosper. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:20
Silverbaron (A supermarket tale) ID#290456:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
In the checkout line at the supermarket........two
buggies filled to the top with canned goods.
Checker: What in the world are you going to do
with all these canned goods?
Me: Stock a pantry.
Checker ( Blank look ) You sure must like beans
Me: We cleaned out your shelves on a couple of
the items - you might want to ask the manager to
restock them.
Checker ( Incredulous look ) Don't you get tired of
eating out of cans?
Me: These aren't for now; just looking ahead to a
year from now.
Checker ( Dumbfounded look ) Waddayamean next year?
Why're you buying all this stuff now for next
year?
Me: 'Cause you might not have any for sale then.
Checker ( Eyes widen ) Huh?
Me: You know, Year 2000. When the computers will
create chaos because of a programming flaw. No
electricity - that sort of stuff.
Checker: ( Blank look returns ) ( Long Pause ) I
never heard of that one.
Me: You will, young lady. You will.
I rest my case....the public has no clue.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:12
Spock (Look out below................) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - http://www.afr.com.au/content/981230/market/markets1.html
Gold broke down through its $US290/oz
support level last week with a number of analysts fearing
a re-test of $US273/oz, its 18-year low hit earlier this
year.
Deflation and the demonetisation of gold, reflected by
steady central bank gold sales over the past two years,
have made gold the dog of the commodities complex.
And perhaps, with disinflation an overriding economic
fundamental of the 1990s, it will remain so. Few analysts
expect a recovery in this metal. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:10
ArmGold (Regarding Platinum) ID#247428:
Copyright © 1998 ArmGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - When I posted the ppb for Platinum I was trying to point out something. I did not come up with these figures they are figures by other sources. I'm using this as a practical guide. As some have pointed out in SA there is a lot of Pt but you have to have Pt at $400 before you see that stock come onto market. I understand all you chaps :- ) who pointed out that it's a bitch to recover. However if say you have Pt going for $1000 an ounce and Gold at $1000 an ounce. Would it not be resonable to state without getting flamed that you would see much more Pt hit the street?. Once the recovery cost is rewarded would it be safe to assume that Pt supply will be more then Gold at some point. Didn't someone else point out someting like 100 mil onces in Some mine area in RSA? That is a lot of Pt for some company in SA has 100 mil onces sitting there waiting to be plucked if the price reaches $400 an once. Does anyone else know of any other mining companies in SA that publish the amounts they have underground also available if the price reaches say
Most gold mines and strikes have been found by luck. Other gold areas have been found thousands of years ago. With 5,000+ years of mining and use Much more land has been prospected for gold then for Platinum. Much more data is available for gold producing area's then for Platinum. Platinum has been around for less then 2 hundered years. How much above ground can we expect? How many Platinum baring rocks do you think have been explored in comparison to gold? Some have stated that 2 places in the world is where Pt is really found in great numbers. This shows that there may be in my opinion much more Pt baring ore someplace out there yet not found.
In the year 3096 when we have become better humans. When Mining tech is at it's greatest, and they have the ability to get any mineral they want. When they take every last bit of Pt and Gold left in the world we would still have less gold in total then Pt. I'm looking at this with long range eyes. I'm assuming that we will advance and bring more Pt ore to market.
Yes the dynamics of the market and the recoverblity of that element today have drawbacks. Yes the total Platinum in the world at this point is less then gold. Yes I'm convinced that we will be alive past Y2K and prospect more in the future. When the timeline goes by the Pt and Gold gap will close. This is my opinion all flames are welcome :- ) .
Kind Regards
Armgold
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 19:03
Snowball (Off the subject, but.........) ID#290213: - Has anyone had any experience with Generac generators? Would appreciate any inputs. You can e-mail me at ( atytgat@flash.net )
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 18:57
Cmax () ID#344205:
Copyright © 1998 Cmax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Africanminer: Did Greenspasm REALLY say that
NEW YORK - U.S. TREASURY TO BUY GOLD ON OPEN MARKETS. Allen Greenspan said Tuesday in response to The EURO “There will have to be a new currency--a new dollar--with something behind it to restore confidence. The one commodity, which has been a reliable, universally accepted basis for monetary confidence for thousands of years is Gold. And so, gold will have to be used in setting up a new system of stable international currencies, including a new dollar.”
If so, not much else needs to be said…..ANYONE in the mainstream would be an idiot not to be in PM with that sold.
Columbia and region: Columbia is relatively tame compared to the bomb setting up in Venezuela…… things ARE NOT at all like they tell there.
All: Have not had time to post in the last few months, but do peak in once a week. Especially enjoy the venerable MOZEL, one of the few real thinkers left. Kudos and saludos!
Happy Holidays to all.
Cmax
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 18:48
longj (over) ID#30345: - and out
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 18:47
longj (Kitco speeding up) ID#30345: - Last few minutes are faster..
I was using the kitco backup....
http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~limweech/kitco.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 18:45
longj (Pt spike up related to strike in SA comb with RUSKI Pd shortage?) ID#30345: - Hope this does not heat up too much until next week...... I hear they will resume negotiations Jan 4. JD any comments?
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 18:39
ERLE (Kitco slow) ID#190411: - I see that the page will not stop loading.
Please hit escape key on your keyboard when you have loaded as much as you want. This is almost identical behavior as the old problems prior to Bart's ISP change. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 18:07
Gollum (The Falcon stirs it's wings) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/story2333.html
Mar silver climbed on short covering, primarily from funds, triggering
buy-stops at the $4.97-4.98 level, traders said. Silver's uptick is all
technical, but the fundamentals are very positive, noted one trader.
Traders also pointed to the over-the-counter options expiry as the
reason for the uptick in silver.
Market players said that most are buying silver and selling gold and
that Mar silver broke above a technical resistance at $4.96, despite the
selling in gold. It's a sign of gold/silver ratio play, said a trader. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 17:44
Gusto Oro (Hugo...coffee...) ID#430260:
Copyright © 1998 Gusto Oro/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Hugo, look at a long term chart of coffee. You'll see it has a tendancy to fall to 90 before making nice rallies. I've been watching coffee myself to see if that level comes around again. A couple different analysts a month or so ago said coffe might be a good buy in coming months, but to wait for it to strike 90 before getting in. Hurricane Mitch destroyed some warehouse supplies in Central America and probably accounts for the recent strength around 117 but I believe it's going to hit 90 before the bull action starts. The Colombian turmoil will help at that time. Hard to guess exactly when it might hit 90 but if this summer the weather is good all around I would expect it to then. --Al
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 17:29
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - XAU/Spot Ratio = .227. The 233 day moving average is .247
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 17:26
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.59 ( this is a new high ) The 233 day moving average is 29.47
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 17:20
fergie (The mania continues...) ID#284191:
Copyright © 1998 fergie/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
ANOTHER new high in the S&P500/Gold Ratio today: 4.344.
This is 27.7% up for the year to date ( from 3.402 ) ;
55.0% over 1968's peak day ( from 2.802 ) ;
180.8% higher than 1929's peak day ( from 1.547 ) ;
and 3,190.5% higher than 1980's bottom ( of 0.132 )
The ratio has gone up at an average of roughly 20% for almost 19 years now.
As I have mentioned before, the new highs in the five main cycles over the last 198 years have tended to get higher each time, but the lows seem to remain in the same neighborhood. The average low for the four main cycles for the last 198 years is 0.149. ( The average peak is 1.836. )
If the lows are approached when this manic and manipulated market finally turns and goes down, both gold and equities are in for one heck of a reversal!
IMHO, Fergie - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 16:46
Explorer (@Africanminer) ID#230243:
Copyright © 1998 Explorer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Hope the sources concerning your 13:51 are
accurate.
It seems with all the gold transactions going on
around the globe and the dearth of information from the LBMA; on who is buying the stuff, that your info may have creditability.
I think that gold transactions at the LBMA are key to todays gold price. We all know that the LBMA
controlled by the financial elites, but not all
consider that its hush hush nature is condusive to their aims.
If the US goes down the tubes, who will be the
world's sherrif and who will bomb the bad guys
-assuming that the bad guys are really bad. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 16:36
Explorer (@Africanminer) ID#230243: -
Hope the sources concerning your 13:51 are accurate.
It seems with all the gold transactions going on around the globe and the deart of information from the LBMA; on who is buying the real stuff, it may be creditable.
I think that gold transactions at the LBMA are key to todays gold price. We all know that it is controlled by the financial elite, but not all consider its actions to be condusive to their aims.
If the US goes down the tubes, who will be the world's sherrif and who will bomb the bad guys -assuming that the bad guys are really bad. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 16:30
kitkat (Caution Advised) ID#218389:
Copyright © 1998 kitkat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 1 ) Avoid gold investments until the POG has risen at least two days in a row.
2 ) Avoid Internet tulips despite being tempted by daily gains.
I just tried to get some info from www.gateway.com and got this...
Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80004005'
[Microsoft][ODBC Driver Manager] The server appears to be not available.
/dynarea.asp, line 4 Unusual? No! I also get these types of error messages regularly from my Internet broker. Just look at the problems that Bart has had with this page FOR OVER A YEAR. A determined hacker can bring down any Web server. What prevents them from shorting amazon.com and then blasting away at the site until it goes down? People are throwing money at a VERY fragile industry. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 16:20
Spud Master (That giant carbuncle bursting sound - or - Shall we dipster again?) ID#273112: - The Internet rockets sputtered today:
Amazon down $20 ( -5.69% )
Ebay down $13 1/2 ( -4.77% )
Yahoo down $7 3/4 ( -2.81% )
AOL down $3 1/2 ( -2.11% )
easy come, easy go ... sho hope ya'll sold 'em whiles theys wuz in the starz. Could this be the begining of The End for these grossly bloated tulips Stay tuned...
Spud, nibbling his almond croissant... uh ... buy gold. Lots of it.
T-minus 3 days untill the Euro kicks the snot out of the US Dollar. got gold?
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 16:19
Allen(USA) (Y2K-ness) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Pass this one by if you do not care for my ramblings. My latest on the Y2K at hand-ness.
In a post yesterday I said that all organizations are concentrating their work on the perceived 'mission critical' systems, leaving 90% or more of their systems to simply fail outright. I contended that this was being overlooked and that we must ask how an organization can operate at all when over 90% of its business applications are ruined outright.
Also wrote of the problem when a whole tier of businesses ( small and medium sized businesses ) plan on failing outright because they can not test in time. They will simply throw the switch and hope things work ( which they will not ) . This is fix on failure and a disaster in the making. These businesses feed the larger corps, and support the smaller companies, etc.
~~~~~
_Government will assist in halting the economy in order to minimize damage_
I am hearing more tidbits which lead me to believe that a primary strategy of the US government with regard to Y2K in this country is to ( 1 ) shut down the flow of goods and services, ( 2 ) weather the roll over as best as possible, ( 3 ) assess the damage and ( 4 ) try to centrally plan a recovery.
It is becoming clearer to me that retracting commitments and avoiding risk will become a way that corporations try to survive. Recent news regarding International Shipping suggesting that ships will stand off coast and out of port. Comments from officials about 'hunkering down', etc.
~~~~~
Retracting Commitments and Halting the Economy
Play this out in your mind. You are a bank, trading firm, insurance company, whatever. You have been banging on your systems people to fix this thing for 1 to 3 years. They are losing people left and right. You have exposures to customers and suppliers. But you think that you may be able to operate at some level after the roll over. The problem is all those *other* people out there. You have been working pretty hard on your internal systems, but have not done a thing with external interfaces. You recognize the risk that poses. What do you do?
You configure a minimum system, and you 'hunker down'. You are shy about committing and so begin to shorten contract periods. As the year progresses everyone is doing the same kind of thing, throttling back, hunkering down. This means a loss of business and you must begin to lay off workers. As the year draws to a close economic flow has been reduced precipitously. Martial Law was initiated and the government began to do rationing and restricting all sorts of activity. Certain economic sectors were brought under governemnt control and used in readying emergency management centers. Things slowly grind to a halt as the day arrives.
Assessment After the Storm
Once things have shaken out the assessment begins. Who and what is left? Try those external connections and test. Always test. Very slow work. This is not a economy that is running. It is a stained glass window that has been shattered into a million pieces, some still usable and others just powdery dust. Start sorting. The government begins to try to sort out the pieces. Who and what work?
The Command Economy
The economy and the financial community are ruined, but there is some material to work with. But you know that left to uncoordinated local efforts there will be no immediate recovery. There needs to be 'leadership' and a central authority to put some of the vital pieces back together again. Time is of the essence because the human capital of expertise is disapating with every passing day. People who know what needs to be done and how to do it are scattering to the winds trying to care for themselves and their families.
Recovery from National Disaster
A national emergency skills draft was initiated in which every working age adult was registered as to their skills and expertise. All computer related people were put into a catagory which prevented them from moving except under order by the local emergency management team. Corporations were used to speed this process of registrations. After the initial damage assessment these people would be drafted to work as conscripts to repair the information infrastructure.
~~~~~
Flow slows to a crawl.
Commitments are retracted.
Economy crumbles.
Financials fail.
Government secures resources.
Roll over.
Assessment begins.
Government tries to assert itself.
Things don't work out exactly as you planned.
~~~~~
Think about a cessation of economic activity.
A
cessation
of
economic
activity
How do I know ou are good for the money? What will we use for money? Assurances? Promises?
At a certain speed of economic flow an economy will slowly escalate into a productive, increasingly wealthy state. Like an airplane it ascends into the sky as its engines pull its wings through the sky fast enough to counteract the pull of gravity.
There is also 'stall speed' below which an aircraft simply will fall out of the sky because there is not enough lift to sustain it. Japan is in 'stall' right now.
What is the minimum speed of economic activity which can sustain a modern economy and nation?
What do you think will happen when currencies stop trading from 12/31/1999 through 1/3/2000? Do you think that ANYONE will leave themselves exposed to outstanding commitments or others' promises over that period of 4 days? No. They will settle ALL trades. This will take months to accomplish and will in and of itself destroy many financial organizations. This unwinding will start soon.
We are headed for stall. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 16:04
LGB (@ longj....re ArmGold.... Platinum vs. Gold rarity) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Re your 12:49, and 13:06...in response to ArmGold's posts. Precisely!
ArmGold's post is the quintessential example of a LITTLE knowledge becoming a dangerous thing. He takes a factoid.... Platinum ppb atomic distribution vs. Gold... and then draws conslusions. Without properly putting these isolated facts into any meaningful larger context. It;s this very type of thinking that leads so many astray in virtually every area of life, investment decisions included.
One might as well postulate that Boron is far more rare and valuable than diamonds. After all...
Boron = .1 ppb / Universe, and 17,000 ppb crustal rocks vs.
Carbon = 500,000 / Universe, and 3,100,000 crustal rocks!
To give these elemental facts meaning, one must consider elemental form, distribution, difficulty of recovery process into desired form, consumption recovery and recylcing rates, etc. etc. etc.
Some of the very properties that make Platinum so difficult to recover, are the same properties that make it so uniquely valuable in a number of industrial ( and even cosmetic ) applications.
And since my former post did not include the overused, tired, and boring cliche we all have grown to hate...I'd better include it here.
All the Platinum ever mined, would fit into a cube 25 Foot square! ( Or is that ..all the above ground supply? .... well...off to do my homework! hehehehe ) - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:59
FOX-MAN (COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS....(Another nice drawdown in Silver!)) ID#288186: - COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Dec. 29
-- TOTALS
Gold 811,239 - 100 troy ounces
Silver 75,207,477 - 692,710 troy ounces
Copper 93,208 + 350 short tons
****************************************************************** - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:58
africanminer (Bank of France who said “ they stand prepared to deal with any potential disruption in the gold ) ID#257313:
Copyright © 1998 africanminer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Markets My sources JP, Tolerant1, long1
So what has changed ? In this civilized technological age we live in what has come about that has resulted in the near non-existence of the traditional suppliers of “new” gold ( and the creators of “new” wealth ) .
A large portion of all gold mined still sits in the vaults of various central banks. Estimates of this amount run as high as 30%, which would put reserves at between 30,000 and 36,000 tonnes. About 15 years production from mining companies at today’s annual output. Gold is still regarded as wealth and as a backup for printed currency. The concept of gold being of value has not gone away. So what has changed ?
Many are the commentators that refer to the fundamentals of supply and demand for gold and quote figures that always suggest that the price of gold should be higher but they fail to see that historically its the Central Banks that create and control the supply/demand issue and as a result, set the price. The United States was very willing many years ago to assist in the creation of wealth by converting mined gold into paper currency and as a result created the largest reserve owned by any one country. Many years later they did the reverse and started to swap gold for their own paper currency ( not really a good deal ) until they went off the gold standard. But today gold is still readily convertible into paper currencies. So what’s changed? What are the gold “bugs” ( that strange breed of converts sometimes referred to as relics from the past ) complaining about ? Gold can still be mined, purchased, sold, delivered, “discovered” and nothing has really changed.
Central banks still own gold and gold can still be converted into paper currency with as much ease as there was one hundred and fifty years ago.
Historically the gold price has increased only when the Central Banks have wanted it to. And this usually has come about as the result of a paper currency going into the loss of confidence zone. When CB’s have no choice but to try and restore confidence in the coin of the realm they revert to gold to do it. All this does is remove the doubt that has crept in about the soundness of the particular currency. And countries that have large gold reserves usually have currencies that are deemed to be sound as opposed to “shaky”. The Swiss Franc comes to mind as an example of soundness. The Indonesian rupiah is an example of a paper currency that is nearly devoid of confidence and has nothing to back it up. And the Indonesian CB has no gold.
Gold has been referred to as “that barbaric relic” which suggests that we don’t need it anymore, but I have yet to see it being given away for free. So what is the problem ? People have forgotten that Central banks have a tendency to issue too much paper and to create excess liquidity which eventually causes a collapse in perception of confidence in the paper money. These collapses are now believed to be non existent and the power of the CB’s has gone unchallenged for many years. Paper currencies are universally accepted as being the medium of exchange and doubts about their actual value are few and far between. No CB is seriously called to task about their policies and the general public willingly accepts the words of the respective spokespersons as being complete and final. And as long as economies continue to steam ahead ( even though limping is common ) who cares ? This “who cares” attitude is the same attitude that keeps the gold price where its at and enables the CB’s to do what they do with no accountability. However once a CB panics the local populace panics as well. And the more traditional CB’s fall back position has always been gold ( which is why they still own it ) . Reconfirmation ( or revaluation ) of the “reserves” restores confidence in the currency. And gold is always trusted from the “is it real” point of view. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold. Gold and trust go together. But when trust is not required and the willing embrace of paper takes it’s place then it is not surprising that the “price” of gold weakens.
The growth of derivatives markets over the last twenty years has given the CB’s access to a market that allows them to make a return on their reserves by actively trading on their gold reserves and making a return on capital. It seems that they have forgotten as to why they hold reserves and to whom they are responsible to. But when you are part of a select goup that collectively owns a large portion of known gold reserves it is not hard to dictate ( with or without the knowledge of the other participants ) which way the market price should go. And when you are not held accountable by any independent body as to your activities, indeed when the confidence in paper currencies is such that you don’t need to justify your activities, then it’s time to be careful.
Recent calls for transparency in the gold market are interesting because obviously somebody did not wake up in the morning and come up with this idea. Perhaps a knowledge of behind the scenes activities could be the cause. The recently announced withdrawals from the trading of gold derivatives by several previously large players has not set off any alarm bells either. Are these withdrawals connected to the recent announcement of new trading rules on the LBMA which are designed to limit the use of derivative contracts ? What do these traders know that the gullible public does not ? Even more recent announcements by some large mining companies that they are offsetting their derivative positions because of potential counter party ( bullion bank ? ) risk seems to have also gone unnoticed. Previous comments from a senior official at the Bank of France who said “ they stand prepared to deal with any potential disruption in the gold market” also slipped quietly by. What “potential disruption” one could ask ? Comments by Alan Greenspan that CB’s stood ready to mobilize their gold reserves also went largely unnoticed. Why would they need to do that ? Other than try to maintain the myth ( re: the value of paper ) for a longer period.
What has changed is the fact that the activity of goldmining has become the victim of complacency. Gold and goldmining has always been an alternative for the average citizens protection against errant bankers activities and today this is ( apparently ) deemed not to be necessary. That, coupled with a lack of transparency in the gold market itself as well as no disclosure from Central Banks re their activities in the gold market has helped. But the goldminers dilemma is more the result of apathy, of a misplaced faith by the general investing public in the power of CB’s to print their way out of any situation and eventually bring about the destruction of wealth denominated in paper currencies. Only the realization that assets denominated in paper currencies eventually lose their value will shift the focus back to the only fallback position that exists. Those with well positioned gold holdings will do very nicely when this event occurs. And occur it will. But at what cost and to whom ?
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:54
EB (ˇNickO!.......ole bean....) ID#230216:
- - I'm glad you received the WINK and I am also glad that all at kitco know that I pay my bets off.....just like D.A. lived up to his word ( I wish we could hear more of his words here ) .
Enjoy that WINK for now 'cause I fully intend to see that back in North American territory........and soon!.... ( wink-wink ) ...even if I hafta plunder and pillage the 'Stralian coast.........I hear that those 'Stralian Beauts are a fine breed........... ( aaaaaaaaaaaaaargh matey! ) .
Enjoy the spoils mate............... ( G&P to ya ) .
away......
Éßgogold
btw......RJ - I called last week ( Dec24 ) to wish you happy holidays and some dude answered the phone and said you weren't there............I said something to the effect the if RJ ain't there then the whole gold trade thingy comes to a screeching halt......we had a laugh to which he said, when RJ leaves the building gold goes UP!..... ( i think he was referring to the fact that you like to play gold to the downside..........OK................we had a good yuk on that one as well...........go gold.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:54
Jack () ID#254288: -
I wonder how the guy predicting $180 gold over at Martin Weiss' SAFE MONEY REPORT feels about the Internet Stocks and those Booksellers on the net? - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:44
Cobra (Tulips Anyone?) ID#34459: - Looks like the DJAV might make a new intraday high but I think these tulips are not going to grow to the sky..........
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:36
General (Clinton, chief talking head and the Lyin' King,..) ID#365216: - says Social Security is now Y2K compliant. Notice how everyone
is jumping up and down in excitement ( NOT ) ; could it be that no
one believes him? Nah, it couldn't be that.
http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9812/28/soc.security.y2k/
God bless us everyone. T. Tim Cratchett - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:34
africanminer (Another Au sale rumor EXPOSED...SWISS SALES A LIE!!!) ID#257313:
Copyright © 1998 africanminer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gold Market and Precious Metals Commentary
Technicals -
Three, six, nine, the monkey drank wine. Gold moves higher. It is even trading like a monkey that does not seem to know where to go. Another price decline. Another bounce back. This does not surprise Midas followers. We know why this keeps happening. Bullish consensus is a very low 23. The open interest has gone up 6,000 contracts the past two days as the specs try the short side. They are meeting a brick wall laid out around $290 basis spot. Our opinion of the gold technicals has not changed in a very long time. An enormous base, that can support a very big move to the upside, is being formed.
The technicals in silver are very intriguing. Even with yesterday's healthy 9 cent rally the bullish consensus only rose to a piddly 22. Yesterday, silver closed above $4.87. This resistance level thwarted upward silver price movements 4 times in the previous weeks. Now, we have eased through this resistance and a bullish baton has been handed to the longs. In addition, silver also has a monster technical base with the same killer move down on the right side of the base that gold made when it took out the $278 area in August. Silver has no gaps to come back to fill either. This may seem trivial, but it is a big, big positive. Leaves room for a true breakaway gap some day. The final completions to the base will occur when silver first closes above $4.90 spot and then $5.00 spot. The price of silver is going uptown.
Fundamentals -
Thursday and Friday could be quite turbulent. Two big debates ( votes ) that can affect the price of gold in some way: The Clinton impeachment vote in the House of Representatives in the US and the lower house debate in the Swiss Parliament about Swiss gold sale proposals. Both a scheduled go for Thursday. Latest word is that any gold sales, if they are to occur at all in Switzerland, might be delayed. Bloomberg- Dec 14 - Bern - The government said some parliamentarians have suggested the gold sales, announced last year, require not only a constitutional amendment, but also a change of law, meaning the framework won't be ready before March 2000. Our sources say the countryside Swiss folk in the various cantons are not favorably disposed to selling gold and this amendment may not pass anyway if it reaches them for a popular vote in the year 2,000.
We are hearing more and more about a revised, increased gold backing for the euro that might come about in 1999. The number bouncing around is 30 to 35% up from 15%. Most hot on the idea are the French. There are two reasons for this sort of talk. The first is that a big portion of the euro reserves are denominated in dollars. Many high echelon Europeans think the dollar is tapioca for some time to come. They want a strong euro, not a soft euro. The French, among others, think a more significant gold backing for the euro would be a big plus.
The other reason for adding to the official gold backing for the euro is fear of future competition from an Asian block currency or Asian financial entity that will have a substantial gold backing. We continue to inform www.lemetropolecafe.com members that the Asian official sector is buying gold for this purpose. Again, that is why we have not seen follow through break downs in the gold price when it is knocked down to the $290 area. We know that the Asians are there with a big gathering bucket. We have also told you that the Asians were asked by our officials not to push up the gold price while we sort out the derivative mess. They have complied - so far, happy to purchase gold so cheaply. They may not be so patient if they get wind of this gold strengthened euro talk and feel it has teeth.
The gold and silver premiums in India remain firm. The Hindu marriage season in December is expected to fuel strong gold demand in that country on through January. Gold offtake in India was some 19% higher in India for the first three quarters of this year.
Potpourri and the Gold Shares -
The XAU closed at 66.33 up .58. A move above 70 is needed to bring some oomph back into the gold seniors.
Not quite Saturday Night Fever yet, but great to see Placer Dome making such a strong bid to buy a 100% stake in Getchell Gold. We have noted to you recently that it appeared that a buy the cheap asset trend may have begun in the gold sector. This confirms that it has, and bodes well for some of the share prices of the quality juniors that have the goods. Two of our juniors ( Greenstone Resources and Golden Star Resources ) are prime candidates to be swept away at healthy premiums to their depressed share prices of today.
Two aspects of the merger were of particular note. First was the price- some $34 per share, which was more than double what Getchell was trading for on Friday. This turned some heads. Second, was the publicity the merger received on CNBC. It was highlighted all day. Early next year, this will surely attract the attention of portfolio money managers looking to spot and accumulate the shares of asset laden junior gold companies that are likely takeover candidates. One more thing. It is a psychological plus for the industry. One does not pay such a premium for the assets of another company if there are serious thoughts of gold sinking to $200 per ounce.
Le Metropole member and new gold fund, The Toqueville Fund, is a substantial holder of Getchell Gold. It is one of their top ( first or second ) gold holdings. John Hathaway, manager of the fund, told me that there were two other bidders ( Homestake and Newmont ) for Getchell and that the bidding war may not be over yet as John feels the price offered by Placer for Getchell was a fair one. He also made note that Placer Dome is becoming quite the formidable gold company with properties in South Africa, Nevada, Venezuela among other locations. John would not be surprised to see Placer re rated by the analysts to a higher level.
The oil market, like gold and many other commodities markets, is a debacle. Prices have just rebounded from single digit numbers ( Brent crude is back above $10 per barrel ) . It is not psychologically helpful for gold players to see the price of oil be obliterated. Who and what can change that?:
Saudi Arabia. About ten years ago the price of oil was also collapsing like it has been recently. At the time I was involved in some oil dealings with Bam Bam Suharto. We took the number two oil minister of Indonesia, a Mr. Wuyharto, up to visit oil trading Phibro, in Connecticut. Wuyharto had just come from a contenscious OPEC meeting. Phibro was very short the oil market at the time. When Wuyharto told Andy Hall, honcho man at Phibro, that the Saudis had finished teaching their lesson to the rest of the oil world about cheating on production quotas and that they were going to curtail supply in a substantial way, his eyes grew as big as flying saucers. This commentary had not come out after the OPEC meeting and was the real story behind the scenes. Hall and Phibro covered, went long, the price of oil took off, and they made mucho denaro. Moral of the story, I think Saudi Arabia has made its point again. Look for the price of oil to move a good deal higher.
Reuters - Dec. 14 - London - London average daily gold turnover hit 27.5 million ounces in November, its lowest since the London Bullion Market Association began publishing data two years ago, the LBMA said on Monday. What does that mean? This fits right into the scenario that we have been laying out for you. The big gold lenders and derivative players are starting to pull back. Merrill Lynch and UBS are now history, yesterday's players. It tells us that there will be less gold supply to bomb the market in 1999 than was the case in 1998. This all fits into the general declining open interest on Comex and our comments, that in an overall sense, the trade does not want to be short at these price levels. The risk reward ratio of lending, shorting, and forward selling gold is not favorable any more.
Midas is on default alert that is leading to a credit vortex. Defaults will breed fear and fear will stimulate gold demand in a substantial way in 1999. Business confidence in Japan among manufacturers is a record low. Sentiment is at the lowest since the index was introduced in 1967. The Brazilian stock market dive bombed yesterday, down 7.4%. Argentina's economic performance is worsening. Rueters - Dec.14 - Buenas Aires - …it will ask the International Monetary Fund for a waiver after accepting it will not meet deficit targets for 1998 and 1999.
Goldman Sachs ( goon squad leader of the gold cap sellers ) reported its worst profit picture in 4 years today. Public reason given: poor bond trading. First we have J. P. Morgan come out and say they could not trade ( stocks ) their way out of a paper bag last quarter and now Goldman ( with its hot line to Secretary Treasury Rubin ) says it could not trade bonds worth a darn. Phooey on both of you. You are really caught up in the derivative mess and it is causing you big problems. You are the leaders of the gold capper selling cabal and are using cheap gold loans to help maneuver your way out of this mess.
It is clear that our Fed is orchestrating the formation of a Maginot Line around $300 gold. The Fed, by its own admission, had to bail out Long Term Capital. Has a Maginot Line been created so they will not have to bail out the Morgans, Goldmans and other Wall Streeters that are caught in derivative plays that have gone the wrong way and not resolved themselves yet? Goldman only reported a big drop in profits. What about the losing derivative trades that are still on the books that have not been reported yet? Could this have a great deal to do with the fact they have postponed going public?
I must say that anecdotal event after anecdotal event says that our theory about what is going on in the gold market is on target. In recent times the derivative markets have grown exponentially. The trading was fostered to a great extent by borrowing cheap yen and gold. Certain types of derivative tradinghad never been tested in a recession. Trades started to go awry ( Long Term Capital went bust ) . When the yen surged from 146 to 113, it caught the derivative community even more off guard. Many derivative trades went further south. Our own Fed was surprised by the extent of the moves ( probably why Goldman did so poorly ) . The Fed had to bail out Long Term Capital Management for fear of systemic risks if it did not do so.
Derivative trading in the financial community was then scrutinized by the Fed and top management of financial institutions. A horror show was probably revealed. It certainly is the case that the Long Term crew, who managed to suck in central bankers as investors, was not the only financial entity in trouble. Gold lending by UBS and Merrill Lynch helped foster derivative schemes over the years. They know what they helped wrought. They also know how big the gold loans have become ( probably 7,000 to 14,000 tonnes ) . It is important to remember that the gold loan area is a shadowy, secretive one. Very few really know what is what in this area. UBS and Merrill would have as good an idea as anyone would. Sensing serious potential danger that the gold loans have become to big to cover in a crises, they have recently said sayonora to the gold lending and derivative game.
Since some of the big lending players have pulled out and gold supply to the market has been reduced, Goldman Sachs was called on by our Fed to lead a goon squad of sellers to bash the gold market on rallies up to $300. The reason they are capping the gold market is to try and buy time so that losing derivative trades can right themselves. It is clear that the Fed knows the extent of these trades and what could happen to the financial system if they blow up ( they acknowledged this fact publicly when they bailed out Long Term Capital Management ) .
Credit is generally tightening in the financial community, so to foster the time game, the Fed is encouraging cheap gold loans to do what it can to ease financial stress. A gold move above $300 would put some gold loans at principal risk, might cause a rise in the lease rates ( thereby increasing costs ) , and certainly would bring in speculative buying which would exasperate the problem. A big move in gold at this time could jeopardize bullion bankers ( the lenders ) even more. Annual gold supply in only supposed to be 2550 tonnes for all of 1998. Therefore, our Fed is very fearful of a $300 plus gold price AT THE MOMENT and is pulling out all the stops to keep it from breaching this area.
Well you say, our Fed and its Wall Street cronies can do anything and can play this game forever. So why fight them and play gold? Very short term timing is difficult, true. However, the molten lava in this financial volcano is percolating and the heat is rising below the surface. The credit spreads are widening, not narrowing. In addition to Japan, Brazil and Argentina; Russia, Venezuela and Mexico have big problems that seem to be getting bigger. The dollar looks precarious. The Dow continues to falter. The official sector Asians are quietly accumulating gold. We have reiterated this fact to you over and over. It will not be too long that the Fed and its gold capping allies lose control of the situation. The ticking time bomb for the gold shorts is growing louder and louder.
Where have all the good bulls gone - long time passing? Many of them are missing the boat in their price forecasts, in my opinion. The price of gold will skyrocket next year to $400 plus as all this unfolds. Investors in the junior gold and silver shares will make mini fortunes. This will occur as the asset derivative plays become discredited and gold makes like Silky Sullivan, the famous race horse, that used to come from way behind and win championship stake races from 20 lengths back.
Bill Murphy ( Midas )
After graduating from Cornell University, Bill was a starting wide receiver with the Patriots of the old American Football League and has been around the financial and commodities markets ever since. He owned a futures firm in N. Y. that specialized in precious metals and was a contributor to Veneroso Associates, a global strategic investment firm and producer of the 1998 Gold Book Annual.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:18
2BR02B? () ID#266105: -
africanminer-- http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0812929918/qid=914962883/sr=1-1/002-3217753-7984406
yup, good book. Though probably not destined for the bestseller
list. : ) - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:14
Cobra (Platinum..) ID#34459: - A nice close in the January Plainum, ran up late in the day.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:05
africanminer ((Crystal Ball) who's jerking whom? 2bro2b,ect.) ID#257313:
Copyright © 1998 africanminer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Strap on your seatbelts, it's time for Mr. Gold's wild ride!! XAU to grasp for the gold ring at 80 by Jan options expiration.
Thinkers should read James Grant's The trouble with prosperity, a contrarian's view of boom, bust and speculation. Compare and contrast history with these new views of Soros. Loss of freedom is the price paid for more price and economic stability.
Soros is calling for a new economic system that will undoutedly benefit him and make it harder for him to lose. Soros pressuring Fed to adopt patial gold standard. ( price of gold stocks are up in-spite of continued depressed price ) . There is nothing wrong in wanting to make the rules. Just know who you are playing with.
When the wielder of the ecomomic mace dismounts from his horse and pleads at the walled gate for surrender, he does so only in order to make his conquest easier to accomplish. In other words he wants to reduce his costs and avoid risk ( of defeat ) .
Always be suspicious of a rich man who is trying to make things better for the little guy. democracy--free markets--boom and bust--and speculation make life fun. insurance from these freedoms is slavery in the form of socialistic cures run by the rich doctors who administer them. according to soros the patients all need bed rest, sedation and lots of it.
Soros gets in close to power holders in order to become a power holder. he is man of unbridled ambition. it will be interesting to watch Soros in the years to come. what fruit will be born on the branches of Soros' money and power tree?
I bet soros's face will eventually be on a coin. now there is something to consider.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 15:00
Realistic (@longj) ID#410194: - Exactly.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:55
Pete (Africanminer, a cruel joke-NOT!!!!) ID#222231: - Your post is very plausible. I believe that the FED and major CBs have been accumulating the yellow covertly while holding the POG down over these many years ( I might add at our expense ) . How else can the US$ compete against the EURO without taking this action? Why else the coordinated policy by and between CBs to sell gold? Their allocation of reserves must be near completion and this is just the first step towards a one world currency. IMHO.
Best regards,
Pete - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:54
longj (@realistic) ID#30345: - Agreed. I do value your opinion, and those of others, and the historical perspective. I suppose you are correct in separating the two types of posts as they might be considered inflammatory to those mentioned, if you were to express any opinion with them. Sometimes the facts are not enough to draw conclusions and interpretation is necessary to frame the supporting details. Do not get the impression that I don't like the history....I do. THX.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:47
John Disney (not so rare .. but costly to mine) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - to all you platinum rarity chaps ..
I guess it depends where you look for it .. If you
are in RSA it's not all THAT hard to find .. I spoke
with the CEO of northam platinum a few months back ..
.. I asked him his estimate of Northam's resources ..
.. he said 100 million oz minimum .. I said you
mean 10 million .. he reiterated 100 million ..
but you wont get it for under about $380/390 per oz.
... Northam is a small company .. Ive forgotten now ..
but their market cap is no more than 100 mill $ Im
sure.
.. so Plat IN THE GROUND is yours in RSA for a buck
an oz..
... rarity is arguable .. but INCREMENTAL platinum
supply is more costly than incremental gold supply. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:43
ORCA (Realistic) ID#231337: - Thank you. Its good to see your views, and I appreciate a good and open debate. I too do not wish to be 'told' what views to take. The facts and knowledge of the issues will allow me to come to my own conclusions.
Cheers. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:43
Realistic (@ORCA) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I agree with most of what you say and I repost past predictions in a fun way to make us smile and also so that we can learn the very hard lesson that the unthinkable can always happen in the markets and NOBODY knows for sure what will happen tomorrow.
Keeping an open mind for all possible scenarios do put odds on our side and by reviewing past messages I notice that those who put their eggs in the same basket by strongly encouraging others to adopt their own one sided views is a bigger risk ( proven here at Kitco many times ) than learning to respect the markets, no matter what they are doing and for what reasons!
Some people seem to be more willing to be right about the reasons to justify why some markets shoud adopt a certain behaviour instead of just focusing on what it does! Markets will always be right and starting to argue with them and to predict sure scenarios is rarely profitable.
We all contribute and learn in our own ways here at Kitco and one of my personal ways of learning is to stay away from those who encourage to get on board of their success train and to even contemplate the opposite ways of those who predict scenarios that they are so sure about.
Of course not everybody like my reposts ( which are limited and always polite by the way ) and I hope that they'll scroll past just as I do when I don't like reading the messages of some posters.
You're right, things may not carry on as they have..... or they may! We better remain as open minded as we can and the best possible way to come out winner is to have the greatest respect towards what the markets decide to do.
A trading account ( or an investment ) will not grow just by being right about fundamentals or by knowing some specifics about manipulation or solar positions.... it does grow when we learn to be on the right side of the markets though! ( Whether we agree with it or not ) .
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:32
General (Thanks Leland...) ID#365216: - for the excellent article on Y2K survivalists. I made copies and
plan to distribute to friends and family.
See here for commodity quotes:
http://exchanges.quotewatch.com/exchanges/nymex.html - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:30
John Disney (death in townships ) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - . some RSA horror stories ..
.. in a township near Durban .. a young black social
worker had contracted the AIDS virus .. and was open
about it and campaining vigorously for AIDS awareness ..
.. she was set upon by her township neighbors and
beaten to death for bringing shame to her neighborhood.
... in a township called Wallenstein about 20 km from
Paarl .. a white chap struck a young black girl who
ran out onto the highway .. the man stopped the car
to try to help the girl and take her to a doctor ..
he was set upon by a crowd of blacks .. they torched
his car and cut his throat.. he left a wife and two
kids.. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:30
Realistic (@ORCA) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I agree with most of what you say and I repost past predictions in a fun way to make us smile and also so that we can learn the very hard lesson that the unthinkable can always happen in the markets and NOBODY knows for sure what will happen tomorrow.
Keeping an open mind for all possible scenarios do put odds on our side and by reviewing past messages I notice that those who put their eggs in the same basket by strongly encouraging others to adopt their own one sided views is a bigger risk ( proven here at Kitco many times ) than learning to respect the markets, no matter what they are doing and for what reasons!
Some people seem to be more willing to be right about the reasons to justify why some markets shoud adopt a certain behaviour instead of just focusing on what it does! Markets will always be right and starting to argue with them and to predict sure scenarios is rarely profitable.
We all contribute and learn in our own ways here at Kitco and one of my personal ways of learning is to stay away from those who encourage to get on board of their success train and to even contemplate the opposite ways of those who predict scenarios that they are so sure about.
Of course not everybody like my reposts ( which are limited and always polite by the way ) and I hope that they'll scroll past just as I do when I don't like reading the messages of some posters.
You're right, things may not carry on as they have..... or they may! We better remain as open minded as we can and the best possible way to come out winner is to have the greatest respect towards what the markets decide to do.
A trading account ( or an investment ) will not grow just by being right about fundamentals or by knowing some specifics about manipulation or solar positions.... it does grow when we learn to be on the right side of the markets though! ( Whether we agree with it or not ) .
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:29
2BR02B? (Dr. Greenspan prescribes antidepressants for BGS) ID#266105: -
africanminer, your new year's resolution should you decide to
accept it, I will not jerk the legs of these poor, literally,
Kitco goldbugs suffering from BGS, Battered Goldbug Syndrome. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:24
longj (@T1-I know.....Here are other news bits from reuters on the EURO ...) ID#30345:
- - and russian debt...
Euro area sees slow down no recession
http://www.sportsweb.com/news_web/news/GLANCE-BIZ:REUTERS/GLANCE-BIZ:REUTERS-nFAT3602.18-42-32.html
Russian Default
Japan wants Forex zones in light of EURO http://www.sportsweb.com/news_web/news/GLANCE-BIZ:REUTERS/GLANCE-BIZ:REUTERS-nT22471.18-42-32.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:24
JP (africanminer) ID#249232: - Please don't spread rumors if you can't quote the source.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:23
hugo (gagnrad-colombia) ID#404312: -
I have a sister working in colombia. they're talking about direct us troop involvement down there. some foreign missionaries she knows are pulling out. looking precarious for the government with less and less territory under their control.
thinking about going long coffee - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:22
africanminer (Another Au sale rumor EXPOSED...SWISS SALES A LIE!!!) ID#257313: - Who do you think keeps planting these rumors
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/murphy121698.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:19
Charles Keeling (@ AFRICANMINER RE: Greespan remarks) ID#344225: - What a cruel joke. Perhaps Greenspan thinks that, but he
would never utter such heresy out loud. If he did make such a
statement, gold would move limit up. Of course retirement IS
looming in the immediate future for AG. But, no....he would bite his
tongue before uttering those particular words of truth.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:15
Lou_Jan (To Goldilocks, Speed) ID#320136: - Thanks for the referred sites. It seems that the
spot quotes ( not charts ) may be up and running soon.
@Bart - Thanks for your continued efforts in making
this the great site that it is! - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:07
Speed (Futures quotes are back up.....) ID#9337: - http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/curcommt.htx?SOURCE=htx/http2_mw
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:07
tolerant1 (longj, Namaste' gulp and a puff...there is no story...it never happened...it would be) ID#20359: - like Clintler handing over cancelled checks from the Chinese...
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 14:07
El Borak (SilverBaron - Silver Company Profiles) ID#230155:
Copyright © 1998 El Borak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - This could be as little as an address, or as much as descriptions of the history and properties ( I'd be willing to contribute some of my research ) for silver mining companies. Might be nice to have links to 10K/Q info, related companies ( X company is exploring Y's property ) . Links to web pages for those who have them. It might be a lot of work, but the nice thing about juniors is that they don't change much, no maintenance won't be too hard. Let me know.
Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of the Homely for the Holidays T-shirt. Yours free when you join the Janet Reno Fan Club. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:57
longj (@africanminer) ID#30345: - Who are you quoting and what is your source?
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:53
Cobra (My 2 cents worth.............) ID#34459: - Interest rates are holding the key, a minor relief rally in the March bonds has been in force the last few day's . Shortly the upward trend in rates will resume and the bond's will head down again. we have seen the low's in rates. When rates head up again stocks will suffer. Th PM group metals all look like they are going to move up from strong bases. If any one may be interest in some trivia, I posted a buy signal here on the XAU a week ago today. Check the archives on 12/23/98 @ 20:08 hrs.
CoBra - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:51
africanminer (NEW YORK - U.S. TREASURY TO BUY GOLD ON OPEN MARKETS. ) ID#257313:
Copyright © 1998 africanminer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - NEW YORK - U.S. TREASURY TO BUY GOLD ON OPEN MARKETS. Allen Greenspan said Tuesday in response to The EURO “There will have to be a new currency--a new dollar--with something behind it to restore confidence. The one commodity, which has been a reliable, universally accepted basis for monetary confidence for thousands of years is Gold. And so, gold will have to be used in setting up a new system of stable international currencies, including a new dollar.” However, the Federal Reserve System was relieved of any responsibility in 1971 by President Nixon, whom closed the international gold window, discontinuing settlement of international debts in gold, as the U.S. Treasury Department was made physical custodian of all U.S. gold stocks. With the EURO Dollar having a gold backing of 15% the U.S. is going to have to respond. It hasn’t been since 1968 when President Johnson signed into law an act removing the final 25% gold backing requirement from the dollar. The need for a strong world currency couldn’t be more evident. Talk in Washington D. C. is of a growing need to return to a partial gold backing for the Dollar.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:46
Goldilocks (@ Lou Jan, THe Kitco 24 hour spot gold chart is at) ID#377196: - http://www.kitco.ca/gold.graph.html - from there you can get to the other metals. These are 3 day charts and I find them wonderfully helpful if they are working - they occasionally seem to post nonsense for a bit but usually work nicely. Many thanks, Bart !!
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:41
ORCA (Farfel and Realistic) ID#231337:
Copyright © 1998 ORCA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Realistic: I appreciate your history postings that remind us that predictions can be very precarious. I too remember ANOTHER and the $320 outlook? But at the same time, I wish to remind you of what Farfel and others have been pointing out. The world is in a financial turmoil ( call it war ) and that charge is being led by the US Gov. A critical element of that warfare is to ENSURE that no other currency, or unit of exchange is allowed to challenge the US $$ dominance. That is clear.
So you are right to point out false predictions, ( made in a very unsettled world situation ) so in the same vein, don't be so sure, by your implications ( prediction ) that things will carry on as they have. There will likely be an event or events that will bring this warfare to a climax. Lets have you make a prediction. When all the major indicators are at the top... what normally occurs? Then also consider the increasing animosity against the US for its increasingly dominant political positioning and the role its seems to want to play as the school yard cop, bully, it's my toy so play the game my way attitude.
Chickens do come home to roost and so one can predict that the US and the $$ will be under increasing pressure, and that other currencies will occupy that void. Will gold play a role? I would bet that it will.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:35
gagnrad (Columbian news) ID#43460: - I thought this was an interesting twist of events. Considering the rebels have already taken the southern third of the country and the government is suing for peace. This is a war which has been going on since the mid sixties with little impact on the news. So no Columbian emerald mining stocks for me! http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/19981227/wl/u_s_columbia_military_aid_2.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:32
Lou_Jan (Help... anyone?) ID#320136: - Does anyone have the address to the Kitco continuous
quotes of gold, silver, plat and paladium? At one point
it was discontinued, and I wonder if Bart has it operating
once again... TIA - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:30
Crystal Ball (Yeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaaaa) ID#287408: - Strap on your seatbelts, it's time for Mr. Gold's wild ride!! XAU to grasp for the gold ring at 80 by Jan options expiration.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:25
hugo (double post double post) ID#404312: -
dang dang, must must have have faith faith that that a a too too busy busy to to use use note note doesn't doesn't mean mean the the mail mail didn't didn't get get through through sorry sorry - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:24
farfel (@REALISTIC...re: my old post, CHANGE THE PERCEPTION...) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Thanks for reminding people of my old post regarding the imperative of changing the perception with respect to gold in order to once again enhance its value.
Those words of mine are as true today as they were back in '97.
Gold has dropped greatly in value this decade since the dominant financial masters have succeeded in changing the perception of gold as a vital financial holding for people in times of economic chaos.
A mass perceptual change affirming gold's real value is necessary now in order for gold to regain its former lustre.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:21
rube (xau) ID#333127: - looking goood
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:20
longj (@silverbaron) ID#30345: - I would like to see links or descriptions of mining and refining processes for silver and other metals. Properties and market demands would also be interesting in graphical form. Spot prices and and production levels in graphical form against time. Relative ( normalized prices against other commodities ( Au,Pt, oil, and copper ) .
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:14
longj (@realistic) ID#30345: - I am interested in YOUR wise perspective on coming events, while posting the errors of others is somewhat relavent in maintaining perspective.. the events that are about to unfold represent investment opportunities, while those that have passed may serve to navigate the future...flog me if this is untrue...sharing your thoughts would be more beneficial...than pointing out the obvious.....IMVHO.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:08
Silverbaron (Anyone have suggestions for a SILVER web page?) ID#288466: - Please post suggestions and relevant links to the kind of things you would like to see in a web page devoted to silver. TIA.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:07
Leland (Here's an Excellent Reason for Gold Sales to Ramp in 1999 (Y2K Survival Kits)) ID#31876: - http://www.sacbee.com/news/news/local01_19981229.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:06
longj (@LGB) ID#30345: - You and I went off on the same angle there...@12:49...Pt may not be as rare as the price would indicate but it is definitely a bitch to recover....both in labor, energy and entropy terms.....JOPSCEO ( Just One Piddly, Silly, Chemical Engineer's Opinion ) Yep.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 13:05
Realistic (A year ago today (educational reality check!)) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Date: Mon Dec 29 1997 19:21
HepMeMoney_Hmm ( Happy New Year Kitco And Posters!! ) ID#402251:
From GoldBugs,and Realists,and those who predict their fate,
As gold's global value,will appreciate,in Ninety-Eight.
To where,and when,is speculation from the seers,
DOW 6000,Gold 360,Happy New Year,have some beers!!
Date: Mon Dec 29 1997 01:28
farfel ( HAR....HAR....HAR....THE BULLS ARE LAUGHING!! ) ID#28585:
There is probably nothing more pathetic than watching all the goldbugs on this kitco forum fantasizing about gold going through the roof in the short term.
The CB's continue to dump gold...the gold producers continue to flood the market with supply...the propaganda machine mounts against gold as a store of wealth...what Japanese person in his right mind would want to buy an ounce of this gold crap?
The only way to break from this pattern is dramatic, concerted action on the part of global gold producers. The CB's are never going to do it....so it's up to producers to change the market perception....not via hot air but through real, substantive actions!
Naturally, the gurus on this forum scoff at any radical change in direction. They're in such a rut...too busy fondly remembering the good old days when kids didn't take drugs and Leave it to Beaver was everybody's favorite TV show.
Well, Wall Street Bulls will scoff at the Vronskys, Producers, Hagiss's, and all the other gold lemmings when the metal tumbles to $220 ( or lower ) by year's end.
HAR...HAR...HAR... ( oh...that's the sound of Bull laughter targeted at
gold lemmings ) . HAR...HAR...HAR....
If you don't want to hear it, CHANGE THE PERCEPTION!
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:57
trader_vic (Tickets to the Blue Room - Off Topic) ID#372228: - I have two tickets to the Nicole Kidman play The Blue Room for tomorrow at 2pm in New York City...Court Theater - Mezz. level...$100/ea.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:57
Envy (@Oris) ID#219363: - Thanks so much for the response. If I happen to find out more I'll post it as a follow-up.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:53
farfel (@RJ...thanks for your 9:18...re: GOLD.) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - We continue to have philosophical differences in terms of defining gold.
You believe gold is a mere commodity whose price is determined solely by the marketplace. Furthermore, you believe the US government has NO control over the world price. On the other hand, I believe it remains a notable financial reserve...at least for those countries that can still afford to retain it as such. I suggest that the continual exchange of gold at a national level between various countries affirms my contention. Moreover, I contend that the US government has large indirect control over the POG owing to its influence on friendly central bank proxies. Finally, I submit that the obligatory spate of anti-gold propaganda in America that always follows or precedes any financial market turmoil here confirms the great importance placed upon the yellow metal by an American government constantly vigilant against the possibility that one day gold might soar, attract notable investment inflows, and subvert this decade's safe haven role of treasuries and bonds.
However, again, I will grant that your perspective is articulate and compelling. You are certainly NOT alone in contending that gold has devolved into a mere commodity.
So, we continue to agree to disagree.
I hope you are right about your upbeat views on gold for '99. However,
please note this particular post of mine for historical record.
I am willing to bet that if you are right, then it will be largely for reasons OTHER than Y2K. Furthermore, if you are right ( and no doubt your track record has been very good ) , then I suspect you are erring on the side of underestimation of gold's ultimate price target for '99. That is because I believe that the ONLY way gold will rise notably this year is if the US government dominated global financial status quo falls apart. In such an event, then gold to 340-370 by year's end seems to be a significant underestimate.
Anyway, good luck.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:49
longj (Pt Au Ag Pd info.) ID#30345:
- - http://www.platinumguild.org/periodic.htm
http://www.geology.wisc.edu/~jill/pt.html
Relative abundances of PGM and Ag/Au
http://www.scescape.net/~woods/elements/platinum.html
Ag Earth Abundance -1.2 log SolarSystem abund -0.313 log
Pt Earth Abundance -2.3 log SolarSystem abund 0.127 log
Pd Earth Abundance -2.0 log SolarSystem abund 0.143 log
Au Earth Abundance -2.4 log SolarSystem abund -0.728 log
Well there might be a bit more platinuim on the earths crust than gold. I do believe though that the abundance is but one small factor. The distribution and the inertness of Pt make it much more difficult to recover than gold. The analogy might be that of trying to recover the enormous quantity of gold in sea water. The addiditonal factor with Pt, however is that it is extremely inert, and difficult to work with ( hard, and high melting point ) leading to a high cost of recovery.
http://www.perthmint.com/precious/platinum/index.shtml
Though it has been treasured as an adornment for more than
3,000 years, it is only over the past two centuries that platinum
has been widely recognised as the most precious of the three
'noble' metals, gold, platinum and silver.
While largely overshadowed by the romance and the riches associated
with gold, platinum is in fact by far the rarest of the precious metals. For
every 17 ounces of gold and 120 ounces of silver, only one ounce of
platinum is produced and usually 10 tonnes of ore must be mined to
yield that tiny amount. Up until 1820 the entire quantity of platinum
mined around the world was only 30 tonnes. Between 1820 and 1914
only a further 200 tonnes were mined. It has only been in the past 50
years that sizeable and reliable supplies have reached world markets.
Palladium occurs naturally in association with platinum deposits.
It is one of the so-called platinum group metals - platinum,
palladium, rhodium, ruthenium and iridium.
Like platinum, it is a very rare precious metal. The total world supply in
1994 was estimated to be only about 164 tonnes, compared to about
141 tonnes of platinum and 2,296 tonnes of newly mined gold.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:49
LGB (@ ArmGold....) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Re your rather humurous 09:57 stating that Gold is much more rare than Gold ( Which I assume was intended to state that Gold is much more rare than Platinum ) .....
Before you go off into arcane subjects like how much Platinum might exist in the universe, ( which of course has nothing whatsoever to do with how easily human beings might get their hands on the stuff... ) you might do well to go a bit further in your rarity research, into such practical matters as how much supply is available, how much is mined annually, what is stockpiled, supply / demand fundamnetals, etc. Obviously you havn't a clue.
If Platinum were more abundant than Gold, why is it's price higher, and ESPECIALLY, why do 1998 mining estimate totals show 64.5 million ounces mined for Gold, and only 4 million ounces for Platinum?
With Platinum so abundantly available in ground, isn't the mining industry rather stupid to mine the much more rare Gold at 16 times the rate they mine Platinum, even though Platinum's current market price is much higher? ( Estimates of 98 production, 467 million ounces Silver, 64.5 million ounces Gold, 4 million ounces, Platinum ) .
A bit of info. on the subject, from the PGM group follows.... please, check your facts next time before doing the ignorant Dude, routine toward other posters who know this subject far better than you do,eh?
How Rare Is Platinum?
One of the many attractions of platinum is its scarcity. The extremes to which man must go to extract this metal from the earth range from delving beneath the frozen wilderness of Siberia, to plumbing the heated depths of the Merensky Reef. Gold and silver, long prized for their beauty and scarcity, are relatively abundant when compared to the small quantities
of platinum available for man's exploitation.
There are several measures by which to measure platinum's scarcity: the quantity produced annually, the quantity mined throughout history, the quantity in above ground stocks, and the availability of platinum reserves for potential mining in the future.
Annual Production
Estimates are that in recent years annual production of silver is
over 115 times as much as what is annually produced for
platinum. Estimates are that over 15 times as much
gold is produced as is platinum.
In 1997, the price of silver averaged $4.90 per troy ounce, the
gold price averaged $333 per troy ounce, and the platinum
price averaged $394 per troy ounce. For 1997, the price ratio
of platinum to silver was roughly 80 to 1. The price ratio of
platinum to gold was roughly 1.2 to 1. The implication is that
when compared to the other metals the amount of platinum
produced is miniscule, while the price of the metal is not so
expensive as this disparity might imply.
Total Historical Production of Platinum
Estimates are that less than 200 million ounces of platinum
have ever been produced. The vast majority of platinum has
been fabricated and is not readily available for reuse. Unlike
gold, where the majority of above-ground stocks can be easily
brought back onto the market for melting and fabrication, most
above-ground platinum is in forms less likely to come back
onto the market unless the price for platinum increases
significantly.
Available Above-Ground Supplies
The US Defense Logistics Agency ( DLA ) holdings of platinum are 453,326 ounces as of September of 1996. This quantity is being drawn down at a rate of 10,000 ounces a year, providing approximately 1/500th of world annual platinum supply.
Outside of the DLA, there are no other known stockpiles of platinum of comparable size. Modest inventories of platinum are held by the main commodity exchanges where platinum is traded in Tokyo, London, Zurich, and New York. Variousindustrial consumers may hold small amounts of inventory as well. However these inventories have been largely drawn down over the past 18 months. Current levels total less than 1/50th of world annual platinum supply. Russia is believed to hold some platinum reserves: their holdings are a state secret and most analysts believe that these inventories are significantly reduced from the early 1990s.
CPM Group estimates that investors hold about 2 million ounces of platinum. The amount held in bullion coin form has not displayed a tendency to come back onto the market to meet industrial supply demands. This implies that the coin bullion sector is characterized by long term investors who are not generally sensitive to short-term price swings.
It is estimated that there are 3.38 billion ounces of gold readily available for use. Of that amount, an estimated 1.10 billion ounces are in official stocks held by central banks and about 2.28 billion ounces are estimated to be privately held as coin, bullion, and jewelry ( according to the United States Geological Services. )
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:47
lady_bug (silver) ID#320202: - .....now why is PAA down 0.30 to $ 7.70
what is the silver price
..look at SouthwesternGold swg/tse , now that is a well behaving gold stock, yup ah ha
l_b - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:41
MoReGoLd (@Whoa ) ID#348286: - Kitco finally back. Major problems accessing this morn.....
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:37
lady_bug (FWIW) ID#320202: - Gold up 0.60 to $ 288.40
XAU up 4.55% to 65.06
tlg up 0.40% canada is always behind
yup ah ha
l_b
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:30
Cage Rattler (Laugh of the Day) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - CAPUTH, Germany, Dec. 27 ( UPI ) -- German newspapers and television report on a Christmas day auto accident in Caputh, which has police shaking their heads in puzzlement.
A German motorist apparently following instructions from his car dashboard satellite-guided navigation system drove his BMW into the Havel River plunging vehicle and passengers 13 feet under water.
The news reports today did not name the 57-year-old man, but described him as oblivious to warnings from passengers, passers-by and flashing red lights that there was river in front of him.
The driver from Hamburg unhesitatingly continued on his journey, past a stop sign, down a ferry ramp and then into the Havel.
Germany's ZDF television channel says the BMW sank slowly in about 13 feet of water while driver and passengers were snatched safely from the river.
However, ship traffic on the river was stopped for two hours while divers fished out his car.
ZDF television interviewed a coastguardsman who said ``You can't always blindly rely on technology,'' with unusual Teutonic restraint.
Police say the accident took place when the couple and a friend went out for a drive and came to Caputh in eastern Germany, where a ferry operates across the river.
Police investigating the mishap say a crucial piece of information was not stored in the satellite-steered navigation system of their BMW.
The BMW's map showed the presence of a bridge when it should have indicated a ferry. The satellite accurately indicated the car's precise position, but signaled it could cross on a bridge.
Police say the driver placed his complete faith on the electronic system and drove straight into the water. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:24
hugo (charts) ID#404312:
Copyright © 1998 hugo/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
the bull with the silver ring in its nose has poked its head out of the barn. this one is for real
The bottom is in. look for a quick rise to the 520-530 area before the bums on vacation know what hit them.
looks like the chart of 85 plat wkly is confirming. similar action to last year's rise. look at the monthly chart and compare to weekly BO chart from 85 ff. if things verify silver should make a new high for the nineties by summer--8.00 range. high 5 dollar range in Jan
doesn't look like gold has any downside left. couple days here then up to 295.
1999 should be a very good year to buy and hold anything but paper - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:22
hugo (charts) ID#404312:
Copyright © 1998 hugo/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
the bull with the silver ring in its nose has poked its head out of the barn. this one is for real
The bottom is in. look for a quick rise to the 520-530 area before the bums on vacation know what hit them.
looks like the chart of 85 plat wkly is confirming. similar action to last year's rise. look at the monthly chart and compare to weekly BO chart from 85 ff. if things verify silver should make a new high for the nineties by summer--8.00 range. high 5 dollar range in Jan
doesn't look like gold has any downside left. couple days here then up to 295.
1999 should be a very good year to buy and hold anything but paper - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 12:14
Aragorn III (aurator --news from the watchtower...) ID#212323: - Half a spin later and all is Good as Gold.
got stars?
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 11:30
Cage Rattler (Russian Central Bank investigated for fraud by security forces) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - MOSCOW ( AFX ) - Security forces are investigating whether the Central Bank illegally channelled 1 bln usd into its own overseas accounts, Interfax said citing Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin.
We have probed the Central Bank's activities since 1992, due to the losses in question, Stepashin said. He added that interior ministry troops and prosecutor office investigators are investigating how the Bank was managing cashflows in the country, the news agency reported.
Central Bank officials denied any wrongdoing and called Stepashin's comments a political attack against Bank management.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 11:28
Mike Stewart (Technical Update) ID#270253:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Stewart/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Not much new here as trading numbers are limited by holidays.
The Toronto Mining Issue McClellan Summation Index is close to turning up. We will keep an eye on this going into Jan99.
The intermediate support line that rises at 2% weekly from the last major low is providing support right here, right now. It was at 5802 last week ( broken for one day and then a bounce ) , and is at 5919 this week. This is based on the Toronto gold index ( ^tgl on Yahoo ) .
Caution remains the word, but things are improving. It could be positive seasonal stuff, so watch what happens in January.
FWIW I bought Debeers and Randgold in the last few days. Hard not to bottom fish. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 11:24
Cage Rattler (The world is governed by people far different from those imagined by the public) ID#33184: - http://www.l0pht.com/pub/tezcat/Beter/0BeterIntro.txt
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 11:23
golddkm (What wild animal is entirely extinct, but not permanently extinct...?) ID#432148: - the North American Gold trader.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 11:21
trader_vic (rody - your post on Martin Armstrong) ID#372228: - I agree with you 100% on your views re:Armstrong...especially corp. taxes. We had better hope that the Euro succeeds, because if it doesn't, we all are in a world of hurt!! Not just Europe...
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 10:37
EB (*Perrier Jouët*) ID#187109:
- - ooh la la.........
( I am sending all ascii to Irvine.........post haste ) ........ˇohmy!
If that is all it takes to ransom fine JOE it is done........ ( grin ) .
away.......to use alt. 137
Éß ( alt144alt225 )
btw, goldy-boy and I are mates and we do talk on the phone and when I take the piss outta him it is ALL in good fun and I expect likewise from him. We have talked extensively on this gold thing and we agree ( apart from where the bottom lies;- ) ) that gold will do better in '99. I do think that after it has it's day it is time to SHORT it AGAIN ( it will be the mother of all shorts ) . It may very well be in the same boat come year after next when this whytwokay becomes nonevent...........or maybe not ;- ) .
now, if I only had a kookoobooraa in my collection ( wink ) ...........
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 10:32
El Borak (Cage Rattler - Draft the Geeks) ID#230155:
Copyright © 1998 El Borak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - There's probably no better way to ensure that the government *never* has computers again than to take a bunch of high-paid geeks from their cushy suburban jobs, forcibly move them to D.C., and then cut them loose on the government's computer system, guarded by Corporal Klinger ( hint: the first thing removed is the security software. )
Geek ( to himself ) : La, la, la, ...
PGM=IEFBR14
FILES DD DSN=DOD.PROD.FILES,DISP= ( OLD,DELETE,DELETE )
PROGRAMS DD DSN=DOD.PROD.PRODLIB,DISP= ( OLD,DELETE,DELETE )
C:\FORMAT C: ( Y )
Oh, Colonel?
GI: Corporal, and what is it this time?
Geek: I think we've got another virus, Colonel. Completely deleted the production libraries again. We'll have to send off to the cave to get the backups, two days. Looks like it affected the PC as well. I'm going to have to reformat the FAT, the VAT, and the GATT, apply a RAM, shave and buff the Scuzzy, then reinstall all the software. There might be some collateral damage to the hard drive, so I'll be using the disk cleanup tool 'Minesweeper' to mark the affected sectors ( those little red flags are bad spots ) . It could be Thursday, maybe Monday before we get it back into production. Then we start over.
GI: Uh...uh, all right, carry on
Geek: Hey, Colonel, can you get me another Mountain Dew? This coding is thirsty work...
Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of Macarena Al, the rhythm-challenged marionette. Don't just do something, stand there
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 10:30
THC (To RJ: Pd & Pt ) ID#367411:
Copyright © 1998 THC/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Hi RJ!
I understand and agree in principle with your statements regarding the fundamentals of the Pd & Pt consumption by catalyst manufacturers.
However, I keep looking at the Pt/Pd picture, and something seems to be very wrong with this fundamental understanding vs. the actual market movement.
Fundamentals:
In the case of auto catalysts, one must use about 2x as much palladium as -platinum. Palladium is not as efficient as platinum. The only reason they made the switch to palladium a few years back, was cost. Palladium was selling at $80 an ounce. Now that platinum and palladium are almost the same price, this would make palladium more than twice as expensive as platinum to use, yes?
In light of the above, it would seem that the commercials would be most aware of trends in usage of Pt & Pd, and that they would be able to anticipate a shift from Pd to Pt based on a cost advantage for Pt. However, if this is true, then:
*Why is the Pd price approaching Pt at high speed?
*Why does major catalyst manufacturer Engelhard have almost only long positions for Pd at TOCOM?
*Why is Engelhard heavily short Pt at TOCOM?
*Why are the US commercial COT long Pd and short Pt?
What is wrong here?
I am currently long Pt & have no Pd position, but something tells me that things are not as they appear to be. What do you think?
TIA & Happy Holidays,
THC
PS: Are you going to check out the Maverick's contest? Men who Surf Mountains? - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 10:29
Cage Rattler (Internet Stocks Surge As Web Frenzy Spreads) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The rally in Internet-related stocks continues, with the gains lifting shares in companies with ever looser ties to the World Wide Web.
New additions to the feeding frenzy include SkyMall Inc. ( Nasdaq:SKYM - news ) , a catalog company that mainly caters to airline passengers but does a small part of its sales on the Internet, and Active Apparel Group Inc. ( Nasdaq:AAGP - news ) , a sportswear company whose shares soared nearly 600 percent after a Web site debut.
The action was the latest sign that a company's quickest path to stock market favor is just a hint of a step toward becoming an Internet play.
``Right now, that seems to be all it takes,'' said Guy Truicko, portfolio manager at Unity Management. ``The stocks are going up like people aren't going to go to stores anymore.''
SkyMall early Monday said its 1998 Internet sales rose some 600 percent from last year, to $2.1 million, although such sales comprised just 3 percent of its expected overall sales of $65 million.
Active Apparel rocketed to $8.50, a gain of $7.25, or 580 percent, after the sportswear designer and marketer announced the debut of a Web retail site for its Everlast-brand clothing and a deal for the site to be linked to another Web site, Fashionmall.com.
World Wide Web retailers like Amazon.com Inc. again showed strength, with shares of the book, video and music online retailer surging $33.69 to $358.50. The gains extended a run for Internet retailers that lifted the group ahead of Christmas.
``Last week there was a positive feeling about Internet- related sales because people seemed to be getting more comfortable with making a purchase online,'' said Arthur Newman, an Internet analyst with Gerard Klauer Mattison in New York.
Online investment firms also staged fierce rallies, with E+Trade Group Inc. up $13.25 to $58.25. The broker said its financial services Web site, Destination E+Trade, had pulled in more than 500,000 members since its September launch.
``The rapid growth of membership on Destination E+Trade underscores recognition among investors of the power of the Internet and online investing,'' Christos Cotsakos, E+Trade president and chief executive, said in a statement.
Charles Schwab Corp. ( NYSE:SCH - news ) , another Internet brokerage powerhouse, gained $6.69 to $67.06, a rise that analysts linked to the rally in E+Trade.
Yahoo! Inc., the Web portal that is the most visited site on the Internet, was up $30 to $277.125, while America Online Inc. ( NYSE:AOL - news ) , the world's biggest online services company, was up $12. 375 to $149.
As with each furious leg in the Internet rally, temptation built among some on Wall Street to test the resilience of the Internet stocks by perhaps selling into the rise. However, that tactic has produced more than a few wounds in the past.
``We're getting to the place where you have to think about taking the other side of this trade,'' either by taking profits or selling stocks short, Truicko said. ``But by the same token, I'm certainly not going to try to call the top of this thing.''
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 10:22
Cage Rattler (Amazon vs Sears ) ID#33184: - At its recent price, Amazon.com ( AMZN ) has a market valuation worth more than Sears Roebuck Inc. ( Over $18 billion dollars. )
Per their last annual report, Sears had 344,000 employees. AMZN had 650 employees. 1/500 th as many.
Sears had $44 billion in sales. AMZN had $200 MILLION. 1/2000 as much sales.
Sears had PROFITS. AMZN had LOSSES.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 10:21
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274: - short 17 3/8
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:59
Cage Rattler (Are Americans going to be 'redeployed' by the government for Y2K ?) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - We are really asking industry to do something that I don't know if
the government has ever asked them to do, which is to work with us to
identify people within their industries who have very important skills
that could be brought to bear at other organizations who are in
trouble, or at other states, or potentially in other countries.
It reads that companies are too identify to the USA government their eggheads who could be used in foreign and domestic Y2K emergencies.
http://www.usia.gov/current/news/latest/98122301.glt.html?/products/washfile
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:57
ArmGold (RJ ) ID#247428:
Copyright © 1998 ArmGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Dude I don't know where you are getting your info from?. However this is what I have read many times and I just checked two sources. Both pointing to gold being much more rare then gold.
Once source you can check is Web Elements this is the data for Gold PT
Gold
.6 ppb by weight in univers .004 by atoms per billion ( ppb )
3.1 ppb in crustal rocks .3 ppb by atoms
Platinum
5 ppb in univers .3 ppb by atom
37 ppb in crustal rocks 4 ppb by atom
My Mindata shows that gold is a small amout smaller then Platinum.
Only reason I can find that gold may look to be more abondant is the fact that it has been around longer. Platinum was only discovered less then 2 hunderd years ago. How much above ground supply of Platinum can we expect?.
As far as cars ..I can't make a comment because I don't know about the process used. I'll give you a point on that and just say you are right, However looking at the Geoloical record Gold is much much rarer.
Kind Regards
ArmGold
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:56
RJ (..... Sippin' Stuff .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Badger -
Forget the Dom
I am very partial to Schaumburg
Although it is quite expensive
A more reasonably priced bottle-o-bubbly
And contained within a very pretty bottle
Is Perrier Jouet ( there are a couple of dots above the e in Jouet
But EB will not tell me how to make those symbols )
This is left over animosity from the time I refused to tell him
How I made one of those little accent marks in one of my posts
Thinking I was clever, I refused to say a word
So EB went ahead and discovered how to put all kinds
Of weird and confusing symbols on this page
And he will not tell me how he does it
If he did, two dots would appear where they should.
But they don't…. and it's EB's fault.
But that dotless Perrier Jouet is tasty stuff.
Almost as tatsy as the stuff with the dots......
Yes
PS to EB
Gimmie those DOTS, mon! I am still hold hostage 1 lb. of Jamaican Blue Mountain Coffee, in its sealed and whole bean form, and resting in a trendy burlap bag in my fridge. This is your coffee. There is a cost to be paid though……….. Gimmie my damn dots and the beans are yours.
Up to you
Sip…. Sip…….
MMMMMmmmmmmm……… Caaawwffeeeeee………
Righty O
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:55
Cage Rattler (Euro theory) ID#33184: - One theory is that the start of the euro will begin with some sales of the new unit. Right now, companies and institutions operating in Europe need to hold 11 currencies. The euro will reduce that to one. The theory goes that total amount of European currency that a company will have to hold at one time to do business in Europe will be reduced, as a result of not needing to hedge against the FOREX market fluctuations. Thus, at the beginning of the euro there will be some sales of un-needed euros.
Source: ICT News - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:52
Gollum (The Falcon flies) ID#43349: -
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:46
GIBBOUS (@T1--HA HA--Good one!!!!) ID#432395: -
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:44
trader_vic (RJ) ID#372228:
Copyright © 1998 trader_vic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I agree with your analysis of palladium and platinum...very well stated...but I disagree with your thoughts on gold...with the extreme selling of gold by hedge funds/central banks, it has distorted the balance of supply and demand so much that it has altered the entire structure of the process....in particular, where gold is traded as paper contracts rather than physical...this inflates the available supply to the point where the only thing that will stop this is when we run out of physical gold or when those that own the paper contract convert it to physical....as far as the conspiracy....Alan Greenspan has come out and said that they are controlling the price of gold because of the hedgefund problems...to me, both of these make up a conspiracy against the true value of physical gold.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:41
rhody (We haven't seen this for a while (like all of Dec.).) ID#411440: - Gold moved UP at the opening of COMEX, about a buck before
trading off 50c. Do you get the feeling that the funds are
treading lightly around gold just before the EURO is born? - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:28
badger (RJ and all.... what is the final percent of gold backing the Euro, and is this ) ID#261118: - per unit or is the gold just ment to back reserves?
And to you RJ,you flambouyant fellow, I'm interested in
your choices for Champagne this New Years Eve...
badger
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:24
RJ (..... Speaking of .....) ID#411259: -
ZOOM
Yep - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:22
tolerant1 (Retired Soldier, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...regarding US citizenship...the best) ID#20359: - way to determine if someone is American is to ask them about America, if they fail the test it is a sure bet they are American...
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:22
rhody (@ all: Michael Norman, a contrarian is a guest ) ID#411440: - on CNBC this morning. He is very bullish on the EURO, and
bearish on the USD and stock market. ( What a surprise )
He has mentioned the elements in favour of the EURO over the
dollar, and added the recent changes in the Japanese bond market
as additional competition for capital flows that will be
negative for the USD.
He has not been popular with the grinnies on CNBC. This probably
means he will not be returning as a guest speaker in the near term. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:18
RJ (..... Indeedy .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
ArmGold -
You wrote So long as Palladium is selling as little as $1 below the spot price of Platinum, then it would still be cheaper to use then Platinum.
This would be true if one would use the exact same amounts of palladium as platinum in a manufacturing process. In the case of auto catalysts, one must use about 2 ˝ times as much palladium as -platinum. Palladium is not as efficient as platinum. The only reason they made the switch to palladium a few years back, was cost. Palladium was selling at $80 an ounce. Now that platinum and palladium are almost the same price, this would make palladium more than twice as expensive as platinum to use, yes?
More importantly, supply interruptions have forced manufacturers back into platinum to maintain continuity of supply. Either palladium is way too high ( it is ) or platinum is way to low ( it is ) .
You also wrote that platinum is as rare as gold. It is upwards of twenty times rarer than gold. Gold can be found in great abundance on any continent on earth,. PGMs are found in sufficient quantities in only two spots on earth.
PS to farfel
As I said, I do not buy your initial premise. The US does not control these markets. I don't know how to [put it more plainly. The US has even less influence over the PGM market - except in increased investor demand. I think you current position is built on a shaky foundation. Nobody cares about gold in the highest circles. It is way down on the list of things to worry about. There is no orchestrated effort to keep the POG low, or high, or right in the middle. It is a marketplace, and gold is a commodity. As such will respond to supply and demand. Supply has been plentiful these last few years, while demand has fallen - at least in terms of investor demand.
You paint some as being anti-gold. I think that gold bores them to tears and they could care less. Regardless, there is no anti gold conspiracy.
Remember, one should only consider a conspiracy if it is possible.
Watch PGMs go ZOOM in the next 30 days, with gold following hard on the heels by.
Just the way I see it.
OK
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:15
HighRise (EURO) ID#401460: -
Mike Norman on CNBC says that the EURO will negatively affect the US $ and economy. He makes a very good argument.
First time the $ has had competition.
EURO more liquid
EURO needs less $s than the separate European currencies have needed, therefore selling of US $s.
Plus, Japanese currency is stronger, Japan bonds now paying more - competition for US$ & US Bonds.
ASIA has already anounced that they are moving to the EURO.
BEARX is looking like a good buy, and GOLD was up over a buck a while ago.
HighRise
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 09:08
John Disney (the moving finger writes .. and writes ..) ID#24135: - for Farfel ..
let it be said ..
The mighty F* would never use ONE WORD where ONE
HUNDRED WORDS would suffice ...
for rhody ..
US CPI November year on year is at 1.5 % .. same as
October.. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 08:58
HighRise (BRAZIL) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Brazil
Bovespa Index
^BVSP
9:01AM
6651
-248
-3.60% - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 08:36
El Borak (Aurator - (Sorry about that) Here's the link) ID#230155: - to the Center for Millenial Studies: http://www.mille.org/
Copyright 1998 El Borak, inc. Makers of coonskin caps, sheepskin maps, and those little flaps that go on coffee lids. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 08:04
oris (Envy) ID#249244:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I slightly misunderstood you first time. If contract
between international COMPANIES is signed, it's a different
story, and I have no knowledge of details for such arrangments.
I was talking about bringing a few selected individuals from
overseas to WORK in the U.S. w/o official contract between
companies.
In any case, if NON-residents of the U.S. working in the
U.S. are paid by the source outside the U.S., it is fine
from the legal point of view. If they are paid by the source
inside the U.S., it is not legal. So, if foreign contract
workers are paid by the foreign ( not U.S. based ) company for
their work in the U.S., it should be no problem. That is
a general rule, but as I said before, I'm not familiar with
details.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 07:42
Selby (Bill in the Buff) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Saddam 1, Clinton 0
Since he didn't have anything to lose, the Iraqi dictator wins by default
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Contributing Foreign Editor
Irrepressible Saddam Hussein, the Energizer Bunny of Arab politics, popped out
from the smoking rubble of Iraq last week, beat his drum, and proclaimed yet
another victory over the American and British criminal imperialists.
The Clinton administration was also busy proclaiming victory over Great Satan
Saddam.
It was merely a coincidence, White House spin doctors assured, that Operation Desert Fox
was launched on the eve of impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton. Why the
operation was named after a German World War II field marshal remained a mystery.
Who won the latest war between the world's sole super-power and Iraq, a demolished nation
of 23 million, half of whom are in permanent revolt? The score: Saddam 1, Clinton 0.
U.S. forces fired 400 cruise missiles and dropped 600 precision-guided bombs. These
munitions alone cost U.S. taxpayers $1.1 billion. The Pentagon claims 85% hit their targets,
which is likely true. Alarmingly, U.S. warstocks of missiles and precision guided munitions are
now gravely depleted, just as the danger of an attack by North Korea's 1.2 million-man armed
forces is increasing.
Main targets: airfields ( Iraq's air force is grounded ) ; factories producing permitted short-range
tactical missiles; gaudy presidential palaces; TV stations; an oil refinery; AA defences;
command and control centres; office buildings; Republican Guard barracks. The British,
scorned by Iraq as America's attack poodle, claimed to have destroyed a hanger filled with
Saddam's drones of death, a lurid fantasy worthy of Fu Manchu.
Iraq, described by Clinton as a threat to the world, couldn't shoot down even one attacking
aircraft. It proved utterly defenceless.
Weapons of mass destruction sites - cited as the reason for bombing Iraq - were not
attacked, for fear of releasing clouds of gas and germs, said the U.S. More likely, there either
were none, or they were not located. UN arms inspectors certainly couldn't find them. Iraq's
cadre of biowarfare technicians remains intact.
62 soldiers killed
Iraq says the American attacks killed 62 soldiers and wounded 180, a figure not disputed by
the Pentagon. Killing each Iraqi soldier thus cost U.S. taxpayers about $18 million in munitions
alone. Dropping sacks of cash would have been cheaper. Thousands of civilians were killed
or injured, says Baghdad, though it offered no proof.
The U.S. did not manage to isolate Saddam in Baghdad or provoke an uprising. Nor did U.S.
bombing ravage the Republican Guard, Saddam's mainstay. Only their barracks were
destroyed. Most Iraqi troops and office workers moved out of harm's way before the bombing
began.
Iraq kicked out for good vexing U.S.-run arms inspectors. Their job was to keep discovering
violations to prevent sanctions against Iraq from being lifted.
The U.S. joint chiefs of staff, the weakest and least competent collection of political generals
and admirals seen in many decades, dutifully seconded the draft-dodging president's victory
claims But the point of war is to change the political situation, which the attack certainly did not.
America had loosed its vaunted, hi-tech thunderbolts against Iraq - including much-ballyhooed
information warfare - with scant results.
The total operational cost of Clinton's Impeachment Bombing, including ordinance, was at
least US$2.6 billion, not counting enormous stress on ship and aircraft crews and wear and tear
on equipment. On top of this, deployment of U.S. forces around Iraq costs $20 million daily.
All of these funds are being drawn from Pentagon operating budgets, meaning that readiness,
maintenance, and training of other forces are being gutted to pay for the endless, sterile
confrontation with Iraq.
The attack failed to isolate Saddam or provoke an uprising, but, ironically, it showed the
isolation from their own people of America's Arab allies. While the oil monarchs of Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, and the Gulf emirates allowed the U.S. and Britain to use their airfields to
attack Iraq, the voteless citizens of these American protectorates were demonstrating for Iraq.
Anti-American riots erupted across the Arab and Muslim world.
The pre-Ramadan attack outraged Muslims everywhere. Europe moved sharply away from
America's crusade against Iraq, demanding a new policy and easing of sanctions.
The Pentagon's fears about asymmetrical warfare were justified. America's hi-tech weapons
simply made the rubble in Iraq bounce. The wicked Iraqis were still shouting defiance and
mooning the frustrated American big stick strategists. Invading Iraq was out of the question:
fighting from urban areas, the Iraqis would be able to offer real resistance.
The Pentagon's Powell Doctrine strictly limits offensive military operations to those foes that
cannot cause the U.S. substantial casualties. Israel's American partisans, who have been leading
calls for the invasion of Iraq, declined to urge Israel itself to invade Iraq.
U.S. operations against Iraq bear great similarity to Britain's 19th century colonial small
wars, in which then hi-tech cannon, rapid-fire rifles, and Gatling guns were employed to mow
down mobs of spear-waving Dervishes, Zulus, and Pathans. Such massacres bring little glory
on the joint chiefs who direct these turkey shoots, or on the airmen and rocketeers who
conduct them.
After doing its worst to Iraq, the U.S. is back to square one. Iraq, by contrast, has
succeeded in seriously undermining U.S.-British sanctions, and even gained sympathy.
America's cruel, fruitless policy of starving and bombing Iraq is a glaring failure. A new policy is
urgently needed.
Bill Clinton is certainly no Erwin Rommel. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 07:25
Donald (Investor dollars still pouring out of Brazil (as taxpayer dollars pour in)) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981228/p3.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 07:20
Donald (London morning currency news) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981229/ck.html
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 06:53
jims (To Rhody re Armstrong) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The Euro just might not work for the reasons Armstrong enumerated. He may be allied with the FED and the AMerican hedge funds but he shows little fondness for the EURO managers.
The German's from his and othe accounts I have read seem to have a Socialist bent to tax capital and the wages of the working class to run an ever expanding welfare state. That will lead to their ruin and to the concentration of power in the hands of a few. Untaxed or lowly taxed capitalism spreads the power - HK is a good example of that as in Singapore.
I am increasingly of the opinion that the dollar will not fall, gold will stay stuck under $300 or rather be manipulated under $300 until there is a loss of control over the financial system by the Central Bankers. I am in no hurry for that to happen as it will spell economic and social chaos. I foresee a bear market in US stocks coming from a higher level - say about 10,000, coupled with a deflationary recession. Until your lease rate work signals a buy or I see a simultaneous drop in stocks, bonds and the dollar I'm in no hurry to add to my minimal precious mining holdings.
STillwater ( SWC ) is another story - and a happier one as the stock made a new all time high yesterday. The light volumn move suggests to me there are few sellers of that security as the holders are institutional ( 72% ) and informed about the positive earnings story that will unflod next year. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 06:27
rhody (@ Jims re Martin Armstrong's article:) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - This guy is the antithesis of everything I believe in:
1. He believes that the EURO will be a disaster. As gold bugs
we better believe he is wrong, as the EURO must provide
competition for the dollar in order to end the reign of
tyranny of that deflationary currency over the world economy.
2. He believes that taxes on the corporate sector are bad, and
will lead to a flight of capital from Europe to the US, further
inflating the bubble. If he believes that, then he must also
believe that taxing the poor is good, as there is no alternative
source of funding for government. Taxing the poor and the
middle class simply destroys the consumer economy, which of
course is supporting corporate output. Corporations don't
consume the products of corporations, ordinary consumers do.
Right now, the ultra rich in the United States own over 40%
of all the wealth. In 1929, they owned 36%. One cause of
the Great Depression was overconcentration of wealth in too
few hands, leading to a collapse of consumer demand for
goods and services. Corporations are already rich, and need
no govt assistance to increase their hold on the wealth of
nations. Taxation is the least onerous method of redistributing
income from the rich to the poor, who then actually spend it.
The other technique is inflation, but this is currently out of
fashion.
We better hope Armstrong is wrong. He is an agent of the
gold carry, a minion of Wall Street, and a representative of
everything that is wrong with the free market economy. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 05:50
Cage Rattler (No riots in the street, etc.) ID#33184: - LONDON ( AFX ) - Tens of thousands of homes are without electricity for the
third day after gales lashed the UK and Ireland, with warnings of more bad weather to come, the Metereological Office said.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 05:12
ArmGold (farfel) ID#197293:
Copyright © 1998 ArmGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I agree with you about the American goverment having the power to stagnate the POG and POS. However I must add an important note. In my understanding of geolgy no country in the world is gifted with all the natural resources. Columbia has some of the best Emeralds, Mines in Brazil are also very large. A Rubie from Sari Lanka is the best rubie period. Without having all of the stuff in your natural borders how can any one government put a holt on every resource on this planet?
As for Platinum and Paladium we clearly don't have the dominating position. So how do you think the American goverment can have a hand in play at keeping the Plat groupe from going up?
The Russian's as of late have holted all exports of Paladium. One look at the chart of Paladium will show that this summer we were in the lower 100's range and now we have Paladium selling at a higher price then gold. How could a metal that is 5 to 10 times more common in the earths crust then gold be worth more then gold?. Simple fact the Russians put up road blocks and they have no bond market to speak of. The Russians have nothing to lose and all and everything to gain from a high price in the Platinum groupe of metals.
I got another bit of news for you. So long as Paladium is selling as little as $1 below the spot price of Platinum, then it would still be cheaper to use then Platinum. Again this does not make sense when you think of the fact that Platinum is as rare as gold is. However from a manufactures point of view, if I were in need of metals and I needed the plat groupe I would use the cheaper of the two metals. For reasons of keeping the cost down I would grit my teeth and pay the price regardless of the dynamics of the element.
I'm just sharing my views and my idology with you. If you can counter this in some way or add too this it would be welcomed. Simple fact is that I don't understand a lot of the things that are going on becuase they just don't make logical and or geological sense. At this point my friend any ones point of view is a bonus.
Kind Regards
ArmGold
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 04:35
RETIRED SOLDIER (Cage Rattler) ID#399147: - I do not think renouncing your American citizinship would help, you cannot disguise the fact that you are American born and that is what they object to. You could say you were Canadian but if they ask questions about Canada that you couldn't answer you would be up the creek anyway.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 04:00
Cage Rattler (Bin Laden Urges Killing Of Americans) ID#33182:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Bin Laden, accused of masterminding the bombings of US embassies in Africa, said in Friday's edition of a London-published Arabic newspaper that the recent US/British air strikes on Iraq make it a duty of Muslims to confront, fight and kill Americans and Britons.
No matter whether you support the recent attacks or not, your life is in danger if you're British or American. In response to these threats, the US State Department issued a Public Announcement urging US citizens to observe worldwide caution. The text of the statement reads as follows:
The Department of State continues to remind American citizens of the need to remain vigilant with regard to their personal security practices during and after the holiday season and beyond. In light of the military operations against Iraq, the August 7 bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, the August 20 U.S. air strikes in Afghanistan and Sudan, and the apprehension of persons believed to have been involved in the U.S. Embassy bombings, the potential for retaliatory acts against Americans and American interests overseas continues to exist.
In addition, terrorists, including Usama bin Ladin ( who has been indicted for the Embassy bombings and for threatening to kill American nationals outside the United States ) , continue their threats against the United States and have not distinguished between military and civilian targets.
The Department of State continues to receive reports that make us concerned about the safety and security of both official U.S. Government and civilian targets. We take these threats seriously and the U.S. has increased security at United States Government facilities worldwide. A number of our posts have temporarily suspended or limited services to the public, and may have to do so in the future.
The Department of State reminds Americans to maintain a high level of vigilance and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness to lessen their vulnerability. Americans should maintain a low profile, vary routes and times for all required travel, and treat mail from unfamiliar sources with suspicion. ( end of statement )
David Bergland, chairman of the Libertarian Party, is being quoted as saying the following:
Over the past five decades, Congress has granted the president de facto power to launch any military action, anywhere in the world, for any reason. Clinton has used that power for two previous missile strikes against Iraq; to launch military operations in Haiti and Bosnia; and to launch missile attacks on the Sudan and Afghanistan.
Congress has not only given away its Constitutional authority, it has also lost its moral authority to complain if President Clinton uses America's military might for venal politicalpurposes.
The Libertarian Party's strong opposition to the attack against Iraq is not a signal that the party is sympathetic to that nation's government, said Bergland.
Saddam Hussein is a ruthless, murderous, freedom-hating dictator -- just as he was when the United States government provided military support to him in the 1980s, he said. But Saddam poses a greater threat to his own people than he does to the United States. In fact, you can argue that Bill Clinton poses a greater threat to the well-being of the United States than Saddam Hussein does, since Clinton's military action puts American lives at immediate risk, increases the long-term chance of retaliatory terrorist attacks on this nation, and further undermines the Constitutional limitations that are supposed to prevent this kind of reckless presidential action.
CITIES AT RISK
Below you will find the official list of the 120 cities now being considered by the military as potential terrorist targets. Some of these cities are being stockpiled with Anthrax vaccines by order of the President ( from early 1998 ) .
http://www.sbccom.apgea.army.mil/ops/dp/fs_120c.html
SO WHAT?
The US Government does not only tax your income no matter where in the world you choose to live - they also endanger your life by trying to act as world police.
So why be American after all?
If you live abroad, have dual citizenship and have ever thought about renouncing your US citizenship, now might be the time. You now have a very good reason other than to avoid taxes ( which would result in additional punitive taxes ) . Why not claim that you're afraid of being attacked, assaulted, robbed or even murdered because of your nationality?
It used to be great to be American, however nowadays it is just outright dangerous. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 03:34
Cage Rattler (Japan keen on forex zones after euro) ID#33182:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - TOKYO, Dec 29 ( Reuters ) - Japanese policy-makers are growing keen to see foreign exchange markets regulated so as to rein in volatility among major currencies that is seen as potentially destructive to the real economy if left unattended.
Such volatility could be magnified after the January 1 launch of the euro, the policy-makers warn.
Japan's Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) has recently made clear its view that the world needs to regulate the market to some extent to help achieve market stability, and even stepped-up disclosure and better supervision are far from sufficient to that end.
``We have to consider putting in place better infrastructure for markets. In that sense, prudent regulations are necessary in addition to more disclosure and supervision,'' Takehiko Nakao, director of the International Organisations Division of MOF's International Bureau, told Reuters.
Last October 30, finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven nations agreed to step up disclosure and increase transparency of financial institutions to strengthen the global financial system.
But Japanese policy-makers said the G7 pact is insufficient to combat market volatility that has devastated many emerging economies in the past 18 months.
``The emerging market crisis brought home to many people the evil aspects of the floating exchange rate system, and an alternative currency order must be considered,'' another senior MOF official said.
Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa astonished markets in mid-December with a well-crafted but contentious call to revamp the world financial system, including his suggestion of launching a ``currency target zone'' among major currencies.
Miyazawa said the challenge was to attain ``managed flexibility'' among the yen, the euro and the U.S. dollar.
``It is our task to examine the possibility of creating an exchange rate regime that will bring about greater stability on the one hand and needed flexibility on the other among the yen, the U.S. dollar and the euro,'' he said.
Target zones are systems to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations. This could include an exchange rate mechanism by which currencies are allowed to fluctuate within a given band, such as the European exchange rate mechanism ( ERM ) .
Miyazawa's bid echoed a call by German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine to set bands in which the dollar, the euro and the yen would trade against each other. The plan is to promote greater currency stability and to prevent huge fluctuations.
Many traders, however, warned that setting exchange rate bands would risk setting targets for speculators to gun for, as was the case with the ERM in 1992 and 1993.
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said target zones may have been feasible 30 years ago, but the world has changed to the point where it is a quite unrealistic view of what can be implemented.
European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg has said: ``An exchange rate target for an area as large and relatively closed as that of the euro area could easily conflict with the maintenance of price stability, and could therefore be not sustainable.''
Kenichi Ohno, a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , told Reuters: ``It's high time that we got out of often popular but fruitless discussions of some system being good and others bad. Instead, we should focus on concrete measures to achieve better market stability.''
Ohno, a researcher at the Asian Development Bank ( ADB ) , said that in the past few decades the logic of the financial markets, represented by mutual funds and investment bankers, has greatly suppressed the logic of the real economy or the logic of manufacturers.
Scepticism towards currency target zones, expressed by markets and monetary authorities, is often based on the logic of financial markets or for their benefit.
``But the target zones can be a means to protect the benefit of the real economy, which has long been neglected under the relentless self-justification of the financial markets,'' Ohno said.
Former White House economic adviser Fred Bergsten said in December that he backed Germany and other advocates of a system of broad target zones for management of relations between major international currencies.
Bergsten, head of the International Institute for Economics, a Washington-based think tank, reiterated his belief that a system similar to one which has long been in use among European Union currencies could be used in a wider international context.
``The idea of target zones is not, and I stress this, is not an attempt to return to fixed exchange rates,'' Bergsten said.
``The idea would be to have very wide bands, let's say 20 or 30 percent, like in the European Monetary System,'' he said.
``With such a system ( wide bands ) governments can intervene when they see fit.''
He said failings in this regard in the past had usually occurred when targets for currency management were set too narrowly.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 03:29
Cage Rattler (Oil at $5 per barrel?) ID#33182: - An official from Kuwait said that if OPEC cannot reduce the amount of oil being produced, the price of oil could fall that low. Just the idea of $5 per barrel oil being mentioned by an Arab is amazing!
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 03:28
Cage Rattler (Collapse of Victor Niederhoffer's empire) ID#33182:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Very Interesting! Just watched a very interesting documentary on Japanese T.V. about Victor Niederhoffer and the collapse of his financial empire. Niederhoffer states in this interview... done by the Japanese interviewers that is was the first time he has discussed the final days with any interviewer. He was interviewed at his home and he showed them around, he even showed his now unused trading room. He really looked like a broken man and he stated he has had to sell nearly everything he owned and is still paying off his debt of nearly $100 million. He discussed how he underestimated the market in Oct 97...and lost everything... Very enlightening and depressing..
Source: Novi - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 03:19
Jack () ID#254288: -
The YEN is looking up and at 115.29 to the dollar. Considering a rising YEN with Japan's many problems, something could be up; perhaps a setup, or are the Japanese finally selling their treasuries.
Maybe something out of left field, like a major US problem; is looming.
With Goldman Sachs in Japan and now in Korea, expect that they will pitch US investments to them -at the top of the market. - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 03:11
farfel (@RJ...corollary to previous post...) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The one thing I feel certain about with respect to '99 is this...
both platinum and palladium are also precious metals.
If these metals should suddenly rocket upward dramatically, then they will likely exert a strong upward pull on both gold and silver. Since the American government and its friendly allies do NOT wish to see gold and silver attract notable investment flows that would be diverted from the de facto vertical stock and bond markets, then I feel it is inherently logical to expect that the government and its allies will do whatever is necessary to place a ceiling on the prices of plat and palladium.
So, therefore, I do not feel the extremely strong, positive fundamentals of plat and palladium are sufficient to break free of the anti-PM bias of the Clinton government and its friends.
I know you are a great fan of the white metals...and I know you resent my speaking thoughts against your favorite precious. However, please understand it is simply analysis and NOT prejudice against you personally. Nor is it anti-Americanism when I speak against the government's war against PM's; rather it is simply a call for a return to true responsible, free markets and a laissez-faire economy uncontrolled by special Wall Street interests.
Ultimately, RJ, it seems to me that if you really want to see your white metals soar, then you should hope that the Establishment's special, orchestrated war on gold is defeated.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 02:47
farfel (@RJ, SPOCK....Nothing has really changed...) ID#341226:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - RJ, you are somewhat mistaken to describe me as someone who believes that gold ( must ) stagnate or fall in '99. Rather, I continue to believe that the fundamental conditions exist in which gold ( might ) rise...and rise greatly.
However, I also realize that the American government pulls the economic strings of the entire world...and it is abundantly clear that Messrs. Rubin, Greenspan, and Clinton will do whatever is necessary ( subvert the free markets, etc. ) in concert with friendly allies to ensure the hegemony of the American dollar and ergo, the weakness of the price of gold. Furthermore, it is my impression that they have painted themselves into a corner and have no other option but to continue a permanent, negative campaign against the yellow metal...all because certain major hedge funds, major American financial institutions, etc., apparently have such huge short positions in the metal that their very existence would be imperiled by a surge in the POG. Since gold loans must be repaid in gold ONLY, the question remains: where will they get the gold to close their positions at a profit? Not possible.
So, please do not exult too quickly and assume that I do not believe in the fundamental merits of gold's value in '99. Nothing really has changed in my view that the gold price is a metaphorical slingshot drawn back tightly, ready to shoot upward like a rocket at any moment. However, unlike yourself, I do not believe that gold purchases inspired by Y2K are enough of a factor to overpower the vehement anti-gold stance of the American government and its anti-gold cohorts. There must be some other left field event...and although I believe '99 might be the Year of Left Field Events, I cannot yet imagine which left field event will spring gold free of its leash?
So, you best describe my attitude toward gold as Wait and See. I certainly do NOT categorically state that gold must stagnate or fall in '99. But, until I see the left field event that loosens Establishment control of the POG, then I really make NO predictions for '99.
@SPOCK....although I realize that you are one of the more prolific posters on KITCO with respect to negative postings on gold's value, nevertheless, I think you would agree with me that your last post of Dec.28 RE: European Central Banks to Sell More gold is somewhat deceptive. The article from the Financial Review simply states that various European Central banks will have gold reserves left over after they make their obligatory gold contributions to the ECM's aggregate reserves. Based on that fact, the article assumes that European Central Banks will sell more gold. However, what is logically absurd about the article is that European Central Banks have known for many months now that they will have residual gold reserves after their respective contributions...and there has been nothing to prevent them from selling these leftover reserves to date. So, then why should they suddenly be more impelled to sell them in '99 than in '98? Moreover, once again, the piece makes no mention of which central banks would be buyers of the sold gold. So, essentially, the entire piece is little more than another bit of anti-gold propaganda.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 02:08
aurator (Ooops) ID#251181: - IDT
My apologies, I did not check my figures properly, Italy has 66.7 moz of gold, ( not 66.7 tonnes ) which is 2,074 tonnes. Not so much a pimple, a bit of a lard arse, as gold reserves go. In the top 5.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 01:42
aurator (Italian Gold) ID#251181: - IDT
according to my records, Italy has 66 tons of gold. More than me, but probably a little less than Nick@C. A pimple on the backside of the golden buttocks. I am not sure how much gold go through the Italian jewellery makers' factories per annum. I know I've seen it somewhere...
During WWII Italy counterfeited the sovereign, as better heads than I have attested here.
Got soverinis? - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 01:34
aurator (Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the lore............) ID#251181: - Mooney
What made ya think I was talking of you? :- ) Pious! Vous? Indeedy? How'd ya know that stuff about pig islander? {We may have ventured this path before} And, of course, the Don't believe all you read admonition came from the Anarchists-R-Us Desk Calendar for 1999. Every day, a new way to commit mayhem.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 01:33
RETIRED SOLDIER (Baruch Ha Shem) ID#399147: - Your e-mai didnt make it yesterday, I got several from other people tho- so try again smithj@marshallcenter.org Shalom
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 01:11
Envy (@Oris) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I don't know a thing about international business, construction, visas, etc, and I can pass along your suggestion of checking with a lawyer who knows about these things. I do know that the US customer wasn't going to pay the workers as employees or anything like that, they wanted to pay the overseas construction company, how that company pays it's employees is it's own business as far as the customer is concerned. I think the idea was that the overseas company handles all the details, their own project managers and site people would run the show once they were on the site. The US customer would have a contract with the foreign company. But from the foreign companies perspective I don't know what it takes for them to perform work on US soil with their own folks, and I don't guess they would either as most of their work is no doubt domestic. Looking at it from the US perspective it seems simple enough. You've got a construction company here in the US and some company in South Africa wants you to build them something. The deal is sweet, you talk to your guys, they want to do it, so you pack them all up on a jet, send them to South Africa, get the required visas, equipment, etc, and get to work doing whatever you were contracted to do. It seems simple enough, but something tells me the US is probably harder to deal with from the outside, I don't know why. Anyway, appreciate any thoughts you might have on the subject, thanks a bunch for the response.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 01:10
jims (Armstrong ) ID#252391: - Recent writtings of Martin Armstrong....deflationary with possible swing of investment funds into the dollar and US stock market and '99 begins.
Very good read whether you agree with him or not.. some things to be on the look out for, like Dow 10,000 before gold $315.?
http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-7005453 - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 01:05
Mooney* (Pie In D Face For Bein' A Sleepyful Joe. (Lovin' Spoonful - '66?)) ID#348169: - aurator, mon chum, I rarely ( that would include the term 'if ever' ) believe 100% of what I read and that definitely includes taking Mackay's stories at face value. I even tried to verify the Nixon storey by cross referencing via Shakespeare, trouble is it appears the Bard skipped Henry V11, going directly from Richard 111 to Henry V111; now if THAT little aside didn't throw the rest of the world for a loop, pass the sauce, I'm eatin' pie! BTW - Where do you get off calling me Pious? Da_n Pig Islander/pion! P.S. - Does Your Mother Know You're Out? Goodnight Glenn wherever you might be.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 00:51
IDT (Italy) ID#228136: - Italy with pretty good gold reserves and a weak currency might be one of those European CBs offloading excess gold. My understanding is that individual ECU CBs can create money but will have to pay fines if they go over limits set by the ECU. It follows that they could raise cash in a pinch by dumping gold.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 00:47
oris (Envy, reg. INS and work in the U.S.) ID#249244:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Unless those guys have managerial status, and move to the
U.S. for the purposes of managing operations of the U.S.
company, and they can get L-1 visas, which are easy to get,
it will be a problem to pay them OFFICIALLY, because if
they do not SS numbers, they can not work OFFICIALLY.
But you can get business visas B-2 for them, arrange TRAINING
for them ( in science of construction, etc, ) but you can not
put them on payroll - although they may get a certain
compensation ( allowance ) , which is your private business with
them. If you want them to work OFFICIALLY, you must go through
Labor Certification for them - pain in the ...ss.
Contact immigration attorney...this is the best way not to
get screwed up with this stuff.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 00:24
gagnrad (The next thing you know) ID#43460: - the barsted will change his handle to McAurator! ( 8-^] ) Good night Aurator amd TheMissingLink too. I have dibs on 'Silverfish'!
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 00:18
aurator (wormholes and geysers, geezers and Krugers,.) ID#251181: - Aragorn III
Twelve hours {half-a-spin} ago you made this statement:
Date: Mon Dec 28 1998 12:33
Aragorn III ( aurator---twelve hours ago you made this statement )
--
Thank you IIIrd of the House of Aragorn, I had no idea who the old Geezer was: none other than Paul ( Stephanus Johannes Paulus ) Kruger, 1825-1904, statesman, and president of the South African republic from 1883-1902.
lsc
You are very right about. Hang around here some more. I'd like to hear of your trading systems, if you've a mind to post them.
- Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 00:15
TheMissingLink ((c)) ID#371380: - Well I am copyrighting the term goldbug so pay up all of you! Send me an ounce of gold each or I turn the lawyers loose.
Steve - Date: Tue Dec 29 1998 00:02
aurator (Good as Gold™) ID#251181:
- - El Borak
Oh holder of an hundred patents and owner of a thousand franchises, that URL you posted earlier didn't work, would you please repost. The 1588 Millennium info is from The Defeat of THe Spanish Armada by Garrett Mattingly. ( made a mistake with the date in my last post. )
Honestly, I wonder what my history teachers would think of me posting dates and history, always my worst subject.
Never take historical advice from Envy, I mean, aurator.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––Good as Gold™ ––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Note: The right to the expression Good as Gold™ is hereby claimed as a Trade Mark by aurator. Any person who wishes to use the expression Good as Gold™ can seek permission from aurator@moneybags.Midas.com. International Franchises are being offered for tender. Any unauthorised use of the expression Good as Gold™ will be punished to the full extent of the lore.
Well, if this schmuck can try it on with Show Me The Gold,
http://www.showmethegold.com/showme.html
I reckon Good as Gold™ will be ANOTHER spectacular E-Enterprise. Watch our Homepage for news of the IPO. I suspect Good as Gold™ will float the day the market melts. Yup.
Got language?
