- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:58
arby (Envy) ID#72316: - Golds been tellin us for some time,,,, Deeeeeeeflastion
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:57
tolerant1 (Envy, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...your last post is scary...real scary...because) ID#20359: - within it...laced throughout it...is a severe message...a warning which foretells the financial destruction of the middle class...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:48
Envy (The New National Pastime) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - As Main Street merges into Wall Street, observers grow fearful of a crash
WASHINGTON -- The ritual starts at 6 each morning: Merle Rutenberg of Santa Monica turns on the television and watches avidly as Wall Street's daily drama unfolds, witnessing her personal wealth rise and fall, joining in what has become an extraordinary national pastime. Does a crushing correction beckon? I don't see history repeating itself, says the 46-year-old former garment industry employee, discounting chances of a crash. I think history's changed. Halfway across the country, at an investment firm in Minneapolis, Ronald R. Reuss offers a darker view of what awaits the many who envision a future of ever-rising wealth. I'm really worried about it, says the veteran economist at Piper Jaffray Cos. At some point these people are going to get trashed. Aided by technology and compelled by sobering arithmetic, the United States has become a nation of investors. More than ever, it is the middle class and not just a financial elite that is correlating retirement dreams with the Dow Jones industrial average, scouring the Internet for tips, executing trades online and dipping into profits for such short-term rewards as cars and vacations.
http://www7.mercurycenter.com:80/premium/business/docs/wealth17.htm - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:42
tolerant1 (strat, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...Credulity = Clintler...NOT...and the choice of) ID#20359: - Desert Fox...what was they thinkin...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:40
Envy (Soaring Stocks: Rational Investing In An Irrational World?) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - If you're a stock market bull, you might be interested in the fact that a growing number of investors are ignoring worsening fundamental events and simply buying stock. Already knew that, you say? Since the October low in stock prices, domestic and global fundamentals have been worsening but investors have nonetheless been buying stock at a quickening pace in a rally assisted by the Federal Reserve Board's easing of monetary policy. Never mind the fact that key Asian economies, including the world's second-largest in Japan, have recently seen their economies accelerate their economic contraction to an annual rate of -7% in Gross Domestic Product; that the Japanese Finance Ministry just admitted that Japan will be in recession for two more years; that the Brazilian stock market has plunged 23% this month; that the Russian Ruble just plunged to yet another all-time new low; that the United Kingdom just announced that its year-on-year rate of deflation at the wholesale level is a whopping 8.5%; that eight of the 30 companies that make up the Dow Industrial Average just announced that Wall Street's already downgraded earnings expectations are still too optimistic; that many key companies in the U.S. have announced intentions to lay off tens of thousands of workers; or that the President of the United States is about to be impeached by the House of Representatives. If you're a bull, take no stock in any of that ( no pun intended ) , just buy stock, as the common thinking goes.
http://www.golden-eagle.com/editorials_98/ascani121798.html
Remove the en in golden - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:27
strat (tolerant1) ID#93241: - Desert Fox...A Defense Department spokesman said the code name was picked not to honor Rommel but to reflect the surprise nature of the attack. Surprise attack?! Even Katie Couric knew this one was coming ....
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:20
Envy (@Arby) ID#219363: - I don't know what I was saying. Why, did I sound like I did ? *grin*.
Seriously though, I'm thinking gold might not be at the bottom. IF we are in deflationary period, isn't that bad for gold ? It's been discussed here before, doesn't gold rise with other commodities ? What do you guys think ?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:20
tolerant1 (Herr Clinter...yours colors...your true colors...please...show them to the whole world...) ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - “The people's demand for a profit- free national health program that propelled Bill Clinton into the White House in 1992 is resurfacing across the country.”
“The defeat of the right wing in the 1996 elections will lay the ground work for massive political, economic and social change in the United States.”
“The Health Commission of the Communist Party, USA, the author of this pamphlet, looks forward to hearing your ideas and responses to the ideas presented.” Write us:
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/cp-usa/docs/health.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:20
Gusto Oro (James...) ID#430260: - We got Clinton and Gore--isn't that retribution enough? --AG
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:12
tolerant1 (Her Clintler...your papers...where are your papers...) ID#20359: - http://www.warroom.com/natid.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:11
tolerant1 (clever...veeeeeery clever...) ID#20359: - http://www.seattletimes.com/news/nation-world/html98/altname_121898.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:07
tolerant1 (arby, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...un-stable...good grief...I am so far past un-stable) ID#20359: - most uprights walk out of the room to light a match...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:02
arby (OH ENVY) ID#72316: - What are you trying to say?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:02
HighRise (McCurry doubts Clinton's fitness for office. ) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Saturday, December 19, 1998 Published at 01:18 GMT
BBC News
McCurry doubts Clinton's fitness for office.
Mike McCurry: flabbergasted that he could be so reckless
The former White House press spokesman, Mike McCurry, says he has enormous doubts about President Bill Clinton's fitness for office.
Mr McCurry told the BBC's Newsnight
programme President Clinton's behaviour was
surely reckless and contrary to the way you
would expect a rational human being to behave.
Asked whether he thought Mr Clinton was fit to be president, Mr
McCurry, who had maintained his silence on presidential issues since
his resignation in October, said: I have enormous doubts because of
the recklessness of his behaviour.
The nature of this particular affair and then the way he did conceal it
really does raise some very profound troubling matters.
I feel the way most Americans and
probably his own wife do: Deeply
disappointed, and hurt and a bit
flabbergasted that he could be so
reckless, said Mr McCurry.
Reliance on denial
Asked about the president's sex life, he said people close to Mr
Clinton had spent a year relying on what appeared to be a direct
denial of scandal.
I did not believe that there was a tortured definition of sex lurking
behind that denial, said Mr McCurry.
I couldn't imagine that he would put himself in that kind of jeopardy
when there was a whole army of inquisitors out there, he added.
The former spokesman said that direct conversation on the Monica
Lewinsky affair had been avoided to prevent presidential aides being
subpoenaed.
But Mr McCurry said he had been assured by the president that
everything would turn out alright.
He said that he had preferred to remain unknowing rather than give
the press information that night be unreliable.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/events/clinton_under_fire/latest_news/newsid_238000/238314.stm - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 23:00
Envy (Evening News, The Trend Continues) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The deflationary trend continues on into the evening market news. The world markets are slowing down, but production isn't, and it's driving prices down as everyone and his or her brother dumps goods on the market to keep cash flow up. That's the usual reaction to a slow-down before people start cutting production. Prices for oil and its related products like gasoline have slumped to their lowest levels in more than a decade as demand from suffering Asian economies withers and as oil-producing nations continue to churn out crude despite a huge oversupply in world markets.
Source: Oil-Service Firms Face Tough Times
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0z.htm
And the government gets itself involved by doing everything from trying to subsidize industry, trying to put more money in everyone's hands, and imposing trade barriers, but it's not going to work, the trend will move on until completion. Trade barriers are a government favorite The ruling represented the latest win for a steel industry that says it cannot compete against foreign producers flooding the U.S. market with steel at prices dramatically below production costs.
Source: Illegal Steel Imports Cited
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn16.htm
And even though they won't work, they'll keep putting up barriers anyway, further crashing us into a deflationary cycle as one country after another protects it's own industries, hurting those countries that export products to the country trying to protect itself, and then they put up their own barriers, and that hurts someone else, etc, etc. the United States said the punitive tariffs will go into effect, probably on March 3. The EU has vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs on a matching amount of American goods if the United States makes good on its threat.
Source: U.S., EU at Stalemate Over Imports
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn15.htm
And in the end, we're still right back where we started, a slower world economy that gets devasted by people trying to tinker with things. The process might slow down the deflationary trend, but it won't reverse it, and industries will eventually have to throttle back to meet the new level of demand, in this case cutting production by shutting down oil rigs. The number of oil and gas rigs operating nationwide dropped by 25 to 642 this week [...] kept track of the count since 1940. The tally peaked at 4,500 in December of 1981 during the oil boom. It dropped to a record low of 596 in the summer of 1993, exceeding the previous low of 663 in 1986.
Source: Weekly Rig Count Down by 25
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1b.htm
And the deflationary forces will move further into the economy as industries that provide materials and equipment to the producers hurt by the financial crisis suffer. Of course farmers aren't going to buy farm equipment if they can't sell crops, and that's going to hurt people who make farm equipment, which is going to hurt their employees, which is going to hurt consumer confidence, etc, etc. will trim capital spending by 25 percent to $2.7 billion during 1999 as part of a cost-cutting program forced by low crude oil prices. In scaling back, the company will focus its resources on key geographic regions, including Alaska's North Slope, the North Sea and Venezuela, the company announced Friday. The plan is subject to board approval, but reflects a general cost-cutting plan announced in October. That plan includes the elimination of about 900 jobs and closure of about 20 small offices worldwide.
Source: Arco To Cut Capital Spending 25 Pct
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1d.htm
A slowing of the international markets is interesting. People usually look for the upside of things, that is, if someone is losing, someone else is winning. In this case, it's easy to see who will win from the slow-down. The winners will be people who have wanted to take some time off from work and are tired of having so much money in their pockets. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:58
SDRer (O?) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
This sort of thing fascinates me: downloading data from Zurich and look where they have Friday's gold:
Friday, December 18, 1998
1 Gold ( oz. ) = 290.900 US Dollar
1 US Dollar ( USD ) = 0.003438 Gold ( oz. ) ( XAU )
Median price was 290.400 / 290.900 ( bid/ask ) .
Minimum price was 288.400 / 288.900
Maximum price was 292.500 / 293.000
75% of the prices were above 289.600 / 290.100 and below 291.800 / 292.300
Computed from a sample of 544 prices on Friday, December 18, 1998
See? It is a very small sandbox. Got your little pail and shovel? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:55
cjk (More to Come) ID#340262:
Copyright © 1998 cjk/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Larry Flint publisher of Hustler Magazine said tonight on CNBC that Bob Livingston would make Clinton look like Mary Poppins also said there are more hypocrites are about to be exposed -few have mentioned that Livingston would have been in position to assume the presidency - this whole thing grows more interesting by the day -He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind The causalities are growing by the hour Clinton Burton, Hyde, Gingrich, Livingston, the war is even spilling over the borders Hillary Clinton asks when will the insanity end? Only time will tell but I fear the outcome will not be good for country - cjk -
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:54
arby (T1*) ID#72316: - Make sure you are stable,,, How's that chair ?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:49
tolerant1 (So let's see...the President is un--stable...the market is un-stable...the currency is un-stable...) ID#20359: - the polls are un-stable...Hmmmmmmmmmmm...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:43
summicron (Jude W's Analysis) ID#287247:
Copyright © 1998 summicron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Very interesting view of what causes the POG to move: it's not the cabal of hedgefunders ( from LTCM to Goldman Sachs ) who have shorted gold to raise speculative investment capital that keeps the POG down. It's the FED, making mistakes on liquidity! Gold is the tail that is wagged by the interest rates set by AG! How simple. How obvious. Supply and demand has nothing to do with it. Gold IS purely monetary, but only as a reflection of the supply of the real money, dollars. Ditto for oil.
We can all sleep easy tonight, and also forget about buying bullion or gold shares. Just buy interest rate futures. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:38
Gollum (Times really ARE bad...) ID#43352: - http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101t.htm
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:35
cherokee () ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
the nuclear football has been removed from
clinton....he cannot push the button...
russia has the ability to 'REMOTELY'
launch ALL their nukes....
russia has almost completed her deep
under-ground facilities....to be
utilized when they wage nuclear war...
they cannot pay their soldiers.....but they
have billions to spend on huge under-ground
cities......HUGE........all of the us
facilities have been moth-balled......TOTALLY.
they prepare for war.....klinton has dis-mantled and
negotiated our military into a much weakened status....
the wannabees know--- NOW IS THE TIME......what they have waited
for.......the west is weak.......and vulnerable.....and they
know...the dominos have begun to fall.....
'never should have built the wall'.......pink floyd....
cherokee!;..mike.sheller..where.are.you?..what.do.you.'see'.grasshopper? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:31
EJ (arby ) ID#45173: - Internet Tulips
http://www.itulip.com - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:24
Test (NY-Time Op-ed - Rosenthal) ID#374235: - AM Rosenthal in Friday's Times shares my opinion of Bill Clinton almost precisely. A very good read.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:17
Tantalus (@arby: I myself will not panic) ID#317211: - My FEAR is born of others' panic. Those with their fingers on the trigger, yes? The next upmove in Gold may not be worth its other
consequences. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 22:03
cherokee () ID#343449: -
more on n korea...
http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/crashl.htm
the war curve........violated... - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:59
arby (@ Tantalus,, Fear) ID#72316: - Is what went thru the west's heart when the Russians went on alert
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:57
cherokee () ID#343449: -
from the fin-who-shares.....
an astounding compendium of url's......
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm
he's had gigantus extremus as long as i've known of him.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:56
arby (@ James , weight) ID#72316: - The power has never had any problem with overweight Dictators... As long as they know who the Don is..
rb - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:56
Mole () ID#34883: - Gold is a commodity & money. Oil is a commodity.
it is not recollection that conveys to man the categories of change and of time, but the will to improve the conditions of his life. Ludwig von Mises, ( Human Action, p.100 )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:56
Tantalus (@cherokee: Thanks for the reply to my post in am today) ID#317211:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Looks like you were only premature in your war forcast by a couple of weeks. Price of oil projections are...your world, not mine.
Hindsight to my post exposes my first genuine acknoledgement of FEAR.
RAW FEAR.
Was attempting to drive from Camarillo ( North of Los Angeles ) to San Diego ( South of LA ) , and some trucker dumped a load of sand on I-5,
a main highway north-south. Stuck in traffic for two hours, moved only
two miles.
Carpool lanes were quickly filled by single drivers while police stood
by helpless. Rule of law destroyed in two hours by a f*cking load of sand! This after guns were drawn on a member of my crew the night before during a gang fight in Ventura.
While watching the tempers boil in the traffic jam, my thoughts drifted towards my family and what may happen soon when bad things cascade and I might be caught in a similar situation and may not be able to get home.
Then, on the radio, a report of boatloads of Chilean fruits and veges
arriving at the port of LA ( San Pedro ) to be sold for whatever US dollars
could be gained, as their original destination ( Asia ) , no longer had any
demand for them. The reporter chimed that this was a godsend for the people of LA. But I'll bet that the fruit & vege growers of Calif.'s
Central & San Joaquin Valleys aren't so happy.
Centralville USA will be a better place than here.
Regards
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:47
James (Old Gold@You may admire Saddam for defying the USG, but as you may) ID#252150: - have noticed, he never lost any weight after the gulf war & you can be sure that even if these attacks go on for weeks he will still eat well.
The real crime is against the innocent, helpless people who have been put thru a living hell for 7 years & will now have it prolonged for many more years.
The USG & indirectly the entire population is guilty of genocide & crimes against humanity, that have seldom been exceeded throughout written history.
If there is a higher power, then I really believe that a great retribution will be visited on your Country. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:37
cherokee () ID#343449:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved -
old gold....
if you had an ace up your sleeve.....you could take a pounding
all day......knowing the day would eventually be yours....
http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/j41.html
haggis.....
they are fixing to lose control of poo and pog....chaos and
flux have taken a 'free ride'--edgar winter--on the
'hellbound train'--savoy brown--into the dark ages
in the most modern of times.....
as it shapes up.....it appears that all the fuses were
lit at the same time.....and we're going to have one hell
of a bang.
!;..cyim....looking.in.from.the.outside..-savoy brown-
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:29
ravenfire (interesting graphs) ID#365190: - http://www.ntrs.com/rd/rd35/daily1998/daily_16dec.html
http://www.ntrs.com/rd/rd35/pos1998/pos_econ_18dec.html
might be worth having a gander. comments? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:25
Speed (SWP1) ID#29048: - My apologies for that link, I didn't realize it had degenerated into one large food fight. Here is the Silicon Investor TVX board, better by far.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-3819 - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:22
arby (@ Old Gold) ID#72316: - Good posts on Desert Feint...
Good hagglers those Arabs , Eh!,,, Yankees winning the battle but losing the war....If you don't think you are winning the battle, down in the right hand corner it says DJ+28 - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:17
Speed (SWP1 @ TVX) ID#29048: - Here is a free chat site with some good info on TVX:
http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=TVX - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:17
gert frobe (@ M. Sheller: Interested in the astrological analysis for your bold April Gold Prediction?) ID#42963: - What's the story?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:16
arby (tulips) ID#72316: - http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-24346
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:11
Greenstone Gold (Has the FED f**ked it up..................or.........) ID#428218:
Copyright © 1998 Greenstone Gold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
is Greenspan working in a Klingon straight jacket....
Is this Klingon's PROBLEM ?
Haggis
*************************************
BLACK GOLD, YELLOW GOLD
Jude Wanniski
It is safe to say very few people in the oil and gas industry realize that the dollar price of oil is now largely determined by the Federal Reserve Board. Which is to say that as the nation's central bank manages the supply of dollars relative to the demand for dollars, its accumulated daily and weekly mistakes have much more to do with the dollar price of oil than the supply and demand for the oil itself. In a world of floating
currency exchange rates, the price of oil in each country's currency is largely determined by its central bank.
By this reasoning, the price of oil has dropped over the last 18 months to a level that makes life miserable for oil producers almost entirely because of deflationary monetary errors by the Fed. That is, the central bank's fight against earlier errors it made in an inflationary direction -- by supplying the world with more dollars than it wanted -- turned into an enormous error in the opposite direction.
When the United States was on a gold standard, this could not happen. When the price of gold began to rise from the official dollar rate of exchange, the Federal Reserve had to restrain the creation of monetary
liquidity, i.e., currency and bank reserves. If it didn't, holders of the excess dollars could demand gold from Treasury's holdings at the agreed upon price. When the price of gold began to fall from that official rate,
even by pennies, the Fed was obliged to add liquidity.
Under that kind of monetary discipline, the price of oil fluctuated with all other prices around the gold dollar, rising and falling in narrower ranges within business cycles and national and international expansions and contractions. Prices in the Great Depression fell not because of insufficient monetary liquidity, for example, but because the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 and the Hoover tax increase of 1932 caused a worldwide decline in economic activity and surplus of oil and gas.
Gold is of course obsolete as a medium of exchange. Nobody wants to go back to using gold coins or gold dust to buy horses or houses. But it remains the market's truest measure of scarcity or excess money in the
financial system, even after Richard Nixon in 1971 suspended the dollar/gold link in 1971. Nixon did so thinking the Fed's ability to increase the money supply would help the economy and his re-election chances. Instead, in the next two years gold quadrupled in price to $140 from $35 as the Fed supplied liquidity to a market that wanted less, not more.
It was a Canadian, Robert Mundell, who alone among academic economists predicted in January 1972 that We will soon see a dramatic increase in the price of oil, and thence all other commodities. For two years, the
OPEC nations continued selling oil at the old price level, about $2.50 a barrel, but in increasing volumes. When the dollars lost 75% of their value against gold, OPEC quadrupled the price of oil. Americans blamed the sheiks when they should have blamed President Nixon and the economists who advised him.
When the gold price began its decline from a plateau around $385 in December of 1996 to as low as $272 earlier this year, it was inevitable that the price of oil would have to tumble by roughly the same amount.
Other commodities have followed in train, causing similar problems to farmers and miners. This also means that unless the Fed supplies more liquidity than the market is demanding in the future, neither gold nor oil will recover and prices of all other goods and services as well as the nominal price of wages and real property will come down as well. The Commodity Research Bureau index of prices has been following gold down almost in lockstep over the past year.
Why did this happen as it did? For several years, from 1985 until 1993, the Federal Reserve had more or less kept the gold price stable at around $350 an ounce. When it shot up to $415 in August 1990 in response to
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, as the market guessed the Federal Reserve would inject dollar liquidity to offset an expected oil shortage, as oil futures showed a climb from $20 to more than $35. The Fed did nothing, the gold price soon crept back to $350, and oil came back too.
In this period of relative dollar stability against gold, the world in general and Asia in particular became comfortable in the dollar realm. Their central banks could take their guidance from the Federal Reserve by
keying their own liquidity demands to the price of the dollar. The problems began with President Clinton's tax increase of 1993. The higher tax rates caused a decline in the demand for dollar liquidity. Because the Fed did not drain the liquidity be selling bonds from its portfolio to its member banks, the surplus pushed up the gold price. From its $350 plateau, it began to rise at year's end and by February 1994 settled at $385, a 10% increase. At that point, the dollar price of oil recovered from its lows of the previous year and followed gold up. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan worried that the gold price increase would be inflationary and tried to bring it down by raising interest rates. He should have been selling bonds, to take liquidity out of the system, but he feared that would lead to recession. Gold hovered at $383 or a few dollars above.
For the Asian banks to keep their currencies as good as the dollar, their central banks had to add liquidity in order to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar. Thailand was especially anxious to keep the baht linked to the dollar. Its banks were soon flush with reserves that they really did not need, but became available to borrowers who had only cross-your-fingers collateral.
All went well until the November elections in the U.S. in 1996. It was good news for Americans as the re-elected President Clinton and the returned Republican Congress vowed to work together to produce a
satisfactory budget. As the markets began to smell the tax cuts which eventually appeared -- the capital gains tax cut, the Roth IRA, and the higher exemptions on estate tax -- the demand for liquidity increased.
The real economy was gearing up for faster non-inflationary growth.
Unhappily, the Fed not only did not respond to the increased demand for liquidity with fresh supply, it actually raised the overnight interest rate it controls early in 1998. The gold price plunged through the $350 plateau and by midyear was at $325. Remember the folks in Thailand? In valiantly trying to keep the baht equal to the appreciating dollar, the Bank of Thailand was forced to starve its own economy of liquidity. When it could no longer handle the stress, in July 1997 it devalued the baht. In the months that followed, the chain reaction spread through the rest of South Asia.
Why is the yellow metal so important as a signal of the Fed's monetary errors? Why is black gold among the first commodities after gold to follow its lead, up and down? The reason is that gold remains the most
monetary of all commodities and that oil has many of the same monetary properties.
Even after all currencies floated free of a gold link in the 1970s, the central banks continued to hold gold as monetary assets. There are only about 120,000 metric tons of gold in the world. Because we know how much
there is and where it is -- almost a third held by central banks -- is one of the most important reasons it has such utility as a monetary commodity. It is why Alan Greenspan told Congress he puts it at the top of his personal list as an inflation signal -- saying its stock is so great relative to its flow. Less than 2500 tons are added to the total amount each year. Oil also has a relatively high stock -- a 40-year inventory of proved reserves --- relative to its annual flow. The value of a money has to remain as steady as possible because it must serve as a unit of account for long-term contracts.
It also has to be portable and fungible, which means each unit must be identical to every other unit. Gold refined a specific purity meets that requirement to perfection while oil comes close. The least fungible
commodity is land, in that each square foot is different than every other square foot merely by its place on earth. For that reason alone there could never be a land standard for money. A monetary asset also has to be easily divisible -- which leaves out diamonds, and immune to the elements -- which leaves out anything that oxidizes.
For thousands of years, gold and silver were the elements used by civilized people as big money, with the base metals used for small transactions. When France and the United States demonetized silver in 1873, its monetary functions declined and its industrial uses expanded. Almost the same amount of silver is produced each year as gold, but it is consumed by industry while gold goes into public inventories as a monetary asset and into jewelry as a private monetary asset. Silver's stock is now fairly low relative to its flow.
When there is a productive demand for dollars that is not being satisfied by the Fed, the dollar becomes relatively scarce relative to real things. The first real thing that signals the dollar's scarcity is the most
monetary of commodities, the dollar price of which will decline ( the beginning of deflation ) . When the Fed supplies more dollars than are productively demanded -- or fails to withdraw dollars suddenly in surplus for some reason, the dollar gold price will rise ( the first breath of inflation ) .
As the gold price rises or falls, prices of other goods and services may move in the opposite direction for a while. This is because in the first instance they are priced in terms of their supply and demand. The most
monetary commodities first rise or fall with gold and eventually all prices in the galaxy of prices readjust to the new price level established by the dollar/gold rate.
If you look at a chart of the gold price relative to a generic oil price, you will see that they also diverge, but eventually come back into balance. In the last two years, because the markets have become more sensitive to the gold/oil nexus, the two commodities have had less divergence.
There is nothing mystical about these relationships. If the U.S. government decided to manage the supply and demand for dollars on an Apple Standard, fixing a generic apple at $1 each by adding or subtracting from liquidity as the generic apple fell below $1 or above, the galaxy of all other prices would eventually adjust, but it would take much, much longer. Because of the uncertainties surrounding apple crops, the Apple Standard would be much less efficient than a Gold Standard, but oranges, for example, could not get much out of line by selling for a nickel or for $10 each.
It was this insight shared with me by Robert Mundell that led me 20 years ago to conclude that the world was not running out of liquid oil and natural gas.
Where does the oil and gas industry go from here? Of course that depends in the short run on what the Fed does. If it supplies enough liquidity to make gold scarcer than dollars, the gold price will rise and carry up oil
and the prices of other things that come out of the earth along with it. In the longer run, oil's future is dependent not on nominal prices but on economic growth around the world.
Jack Kemp, for example, says that if he runs for President in 2000 and wins he could fix the gold price between $325 and $350. If that were to happen, the rest of the world would be able to fix their currencies
to a dollar as good as gold, and the world economy and demand for oil would expand accordingly. A barrel of oil might not rise much above $23-$25, but a lot more of it would be demanded, produced and sold. Steve
Forbes has in the past made the same arguments.
In that scenario, independent oil entrepreneurs would once again win or lose because of their own skills in finding black gold, not because of errors one way or the other by the Federal Reserve.
Jude Wanniski
Originally written on December 11, 1998
*******************************
Jude Wanniski, president of Polyconomics, Inc., Morristown, New Jersey, is one of the leading political economists in the
United States. A prolific writer and profound thinker, it was Mr. Wanniski who, as Associate Editor of The Wall Street
Journal from 1972 to 1978, repopularized the classical theories of supply-side economics. His book, The Way the World
Works, published in 1978 to critical acclaim, and which brings a passion and eloquence to the supply-side model of political
economy, became a foundation of the global economic transformation launched by the Administration of President Ronald
Reagan. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:08
gagnrad (Old Gold. Well if they were one on one Saddam would be down on his knees too!) ID#43460: - He would be down there begging, Come out from under that bed and fight like a man, Clinton!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:04
OLD GOLD (Sadaam) ID#242326: - Have to admit it -- I am starting to admire Sadaam. Takes a lot of guts to defy the US with its huge arsenal of bombs, planes and missiles plus super advanced technology.. He may be an SOB but he is a mench. If the situation were reversed our noble President would be begging for mercy. And probably get down on his kness to boot.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:04
tolerant1 ('Desert Fox or Monica Fox?') ID#20359: - It is the most murderous fellation in history, France's center-left Liberation said in a crude reference to Clinton's affair with Lewinsky, a former White House intern.
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/meast/9812/18/iraq.press/
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 21:01
gagnrad (green tea, gunpowder tea question) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - This question isn't SO off topic for a Friday night so I will ask it. What ways are there to invest in Chinese green tea and gunpowder tea? ( Gunpowder tea is a type of green tea that is made of small green tea leaves rolled into balls that resemble the grains of black powder used in the old navel cannons in the last century or so I am told. It demands a market premium due to its convenience in use. ) IMHO
As you recall from your history lessons tea, tobacco, rum and other luxury commodities were once staples of overseas trade. For centuries legens have abounded as to its medicinal use, with the gunpowder type gbeing highly prized. But according to some of my friends in the cancer survivors newsgroups there has been a recent breakthough in cancer research which has found exactly why green tea ( specifically as opposed to fermented or black tea ) reduces cancer risk. IMHO
I anticipate, once this information gets out to the general public then tea will reemerge as a more important commodity than its second rank status the past few years. Possibly before the gold bull starts, but I frankly doubt that bit of prophecy. IMHO
I'm off to brew a cup of tea! - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:57
Earl (Haggis:) ID#227238: - I don't think the BIS is that sort of bank. I think they are a sort of Introducer. They introduce themselves to a transaction and liberate a slice from both sides. ...... In gold, of course.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:55
tolerant1 (Big Fisherman, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...ground troops?) ID#20359: - Where did you hear this?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:50
aurator (TVX) ID#257148: - SWP1
Hope this works...looks uggerly to me...
http://www.news.com/Investor/CompanyChart/0,212,0~3~2~Precious%20Metals~TVX~~~~LRG~
also I've uploaded some old postings from kitco on TVX click here:
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:47
OLD GOLD (Mike Sheller) ID#242326: - After your great stock market call last fall, glad to see that you feel we are close to bottoming in both gold and oil shares. Bearish opinion for both are at incredible levels -- hardly a bull left for either of them.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:46
Greenstone Gold (US National Debt and the BIS.......) ID#428218: -
Does anyone have any idea what, if any, of the US National Debt of US$ 5.6 trillion is owed to the Bank of International Settlements - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:44
BigFisherman (Ground troops?) ID#258273: - Whats up with this rumor that we are comitting ground troops to Iraq? Say it isn't so.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:44
EB (¿¿Is she Hungarian) ID#230216: - EJ - I ONLY go to see Hungarian Gypsies for Tarot card readings. And I *ONLY* throw my own chicken bones.........I've tried others.....never worked. If you use the dart board method try the wooden boards.........I use wood...........it's almost flawless............unless the market says otherwise ( wink ) . Seriously, what's there to sell now? Good luck.... ( ugh ) .
away....to lick those wounds
Éß
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:44
Greenstone Gold (IF and WHEN.........) ID#428218: -
........the Bank of International Settlements sell off their GOLD....
........that is when we ALL call it quits, not before.
The Swiss possibly selling off 1500 tonnes....robbing Peter to pay Paul ! I'm sure that the Swiss populace will be only too happy to join the Global Capital Market, and allow speculation of their currency.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:42
BigFisherman (Mike Sheller) ID#258273: - Agreed. Now, if I can just hold my fire until I see the whites of their eyes. Is that 280 or 270? Kaplan upgraded today. Maybe 280.
PS Just secured investment relationship with large Japanese firm for my start up. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:34
James (Mike Sheller@I hope you're right about 280 being the bottom, because that's) ID#252150: - when I'm going to start a serious buying program.
I still have this bad feeling about POG.
Ordered 2 mounties today from Bart for my wife. Way above spot, but what the heck, my wife always had this thing about mounties. *g* - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:31
SWP1 (Re: TVX) ID#286224: - Could someone tell me something about TVX or where to find out more.
Thanks....
swp ( 1 ) - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:29
EB (Mike............Buddy.................Pal.............Amigo....) ID#230216: - $370.00 by April.......is that 1999 And is that US Dollars And you are talking gold, right? That is a TALL........TALL............*TALL* order.....uh huh.
I say a new low ( WAY ) before $370.00.....the loser buys the first AND second rounds of 'martians' in Bryant Park.......I have swilled many-o-drinks there..........•¡ohmy!
away...........to end the workday and start the celebration ( of life )
ÉßFriday - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:27
Gusto Oro (Baal shem...) ID#377235: - If gold were $850 Clinton would still be a bozo.
Dr. Suess:
He would not, could not, to an Iraqi
but since he now did it sure seems tacky.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:27
Greenstone Gold (SPOCK.............) ID#428218: -
Spock ( Well May We Say God Save the Queen, because Nothing Will Save the Price of Gold )
*****************
Return to outer space, get yourself beemed up.........
****************
Haggis ( Scottie ) - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:26
EJ (Mike Sheller) ID#45173: - Hi, Mike. What's your take on XSYSC these days? What do the stars say? I was gonna check with a Tarrot card gal, but am afraid she'll pull up a Grim Reaper card.
-EJ - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:26
James (The little, rosy cheeked Swiss boy is crying wolf again--as I predicted a week or) ID#252150: - so ago. One of these days the neighbors will ignore his calls for help & & unfortunely the wolf will actually be there & devour the little bastard.
That will be the day, metaphorically speaking, when the POG takes off. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:14
Spock (Beaming Up Now...) ID#210114: - Forklift; I think you got it the wrong way around.
Live Long and Prosper. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 20:00
Forklift (Spock) ID#156161: - What double standard?
Democrats = Evil
Republicans = Stupid
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:58
SDRer (Orca-want to say, Whale of a tale Orca! (yr 18:18)) ID#290172: -
but hesitate, wondering what you might be able to do with
THAT homonym? LOL {:- ) )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:50
Forklift (mozel @ 04:22 Dec 17 1998) ID#156161: - I've always respected your postage, but what was THAT!!!
Are you having medication problems? ; )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:47
Spock (Double standards) ID#210114: - House Speaker had an affair..... but that's OK; he's a Republican
Reagan lied about Iran/Contra, but that's OK; he's a Republican.
Clinton lied about a blow job, HE'S GOTTA GO!! He's a Democrat. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:39
Old Soldier (Tolerant1) ID#185274: - I can’t imagine how the Democrats could make bigger fools of themselves. Those who thought even speaking of pubic hair on a coke can was a disqualifying offense; those who would withhold funds from soldiers on the ground in the Gulf War; those who tried to withhold confirmation of Ford so they could install Carl Albert; those same disingenuous lying scum now support an abusive harassing pervert, perjurer, in the name of our troops and say that merely replacing Clinton with Gore is a coup. Unbelievable audacity and stupidity.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:35
Mike Sheller (jims) ID#348257: - oil, gold, and copper are currently bottoming. The worst we will see is a retest of 280 on gold. This will set up a triple bottom. Take a good look at it. It is relatively rare and will make a nice foundation for the rise to 370-375 by April/May.
Oil and copper shares are as much an accumulate as gold stocks. The bottom is HERE. a few dollars up or down will not change things. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:35
Mike Sheller (jims) ID#348257: - oil, gold, and copper are currently bottoming. The worst we will see is a retest of 280 on gold. This will set up a triple bottom. Take a good look at it. It is relatively rare and will make a nice foundation for the rise to 370-375 by April/May.
Oil and copper shares are as much an accumulate as gold stocks. The bottom is HERE. a few dollars up or down will not change things. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:34
EB (Mooney.....I couldn't 'a said it better myself..........) ID#230216: - DUH.......
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:30
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - XAU/Spot Ratio = .224. The 233 day moving average is .248
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:30
Mike Sheller (aurator) ID#348257:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Maple Leaf Decals? I'd sooner root for the Montreal Canadiens! ( Actually, I DID root for them. Even watched them play in Montreal many years ago - you had to wait for someone to die to get a box-seat at the Forum ) ( ( too many years ago ) ) . Vive les Habitants! Bernie Geoffrion, Jacques Plante, Gilles Tremblay...oh what a world it was then...
sure, TRUE ...it's a damn shame that the only remedy to Saddam's despotism we can come up with is a horrible curse on the Iraqi people. I deplore it too! What IS the answer? I don't know. It is our human fate to suffer despots and buffoons. Sometimes it is hard to tell them apart.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:27
Spock (Well May We Say God Save the Queen, because Nothing Will Save the Price of Gold) ID#210114: - Yet another dismall performance by the yellow today.
War has broken out, President to be impeached.....
and gold falls another few dollars to break through the US$290 support.
Meanwhile Switzerland look well on the way to decoupling gold from its currency and sell 1300 tonnes of gold.
And there are still some who are silly enough to argue that we are returning to a gold backed currency.
Puh lease.....
Live Long and Prosper. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:25
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.82. The 233 day moving average is 29.33
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:25
jims (To Mike re gold 370 or 270) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I hope you are right about gold 370 as it would confirm my longer term fundlemental beliefs about the relative value of things. It is possible and not far from very likely that we will see a $100 range by April. However, I think the lower number will be approached first as deflation works its way through the system. With a marked weakness in the dollar following the Euro's arrival and falling bonds a rally that breaks the control of the CABAL of the $300 barrier may ensue, but we are seeing no signs of that beginning...in fact we see the opposite..and the Europeans may desire to maintain the dollar about where it is to maintain trade advantages for their exports.
The trend is down for gold and oil, up for at least the large cap stocks. While extrapolation of trends is dangerous it has proven less so than standing in front of the freight train.
Good weekend all . . the new year will certainly bring its share of surprises as has this. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:23
tolerant1 (aurator, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...have no fear...I read Harry Crumb's Guide) ID#20359: - How To Infiltrate and Order Take-Out in a Foreign Land...my whole life...no matter what country I am in the indigenes always think I escaped from a museum...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:19
Forklift ('twas the night before impeachment) ID#156161: - Is that a new, all time, low for bearx?
Campbell Resources ( cch ) is very low now, too.
Clinton testamony by Dr. Seuss! LOL
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:06
kiwi (Bottom line accounting in Irack attack) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - If the buildings being destroyed actually coat less than the bombs used to destroy them, is there any gain here?
Unless of course you are dumping bombs which probably wont work in a little more than years time anyway. In which case it's a little like dumping depreciated assets. More like throwing out the rotten apples before it ruins others in the barrel.
How many bombs does the DOD have that will need to be dumped in this way I wonder? More worryingly how many missles worldwide will be dumped before their electronic guidance systems render them useless due to Y2Ksion? Could be quite an active year in 1999 for missle dumping...not a pleasant thought. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:05
aurator (Your Flag decal won't get you into heaven any more....John Prine) ID#257148: - Tolerant1
I suspect what really matters here is the appearance of guilt. Any Merkans travelling overseas better get some Maple leaf decals for their suitcases, and learn how to say eh at the end of every sentence.
incoming missle..
camauflagaurator
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 19:02
EB (btw......*ANOTHER*.....) ID#230216: - sucky Friday for GOLD.......... ( ugh ) ........anyone see any patterns here Now gold will continue it's downward spiral next week.......a new low will be made......how low to go? Only the shadow knows.................. ( boo ) ........It still has a ways to go until it reaches oversold on Stoch's....... ( weekly ) ........ ( or Daily ) ......uh huh. Don't be discouraged bugs......you will have more time to accumulate more shares or ozer's..............
away...to take in some holiday cheer...
Éßlitzen.....or comet.........cupid?........¡giddyup!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:56
tolerant1 (Mike Sheller, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya... you write such poignant words and weave ) ID#20359: - them into a tapestry of what makes this country great...but as we all paid for the missiles that rain down on IRAQ I question the motive and still label it a repugnant shame...on this ledger sheet we are ALL accountable...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:55
Greenstone Gold (A Swiss Hedge Fund in TROUBLE ) ID#428218: -
Gold tests $290.00 support on Swiss jitters [Dec 18] Things must be getting really bad if the Swiss Gold Sale story is trotted out again... perhaps another hedge fund in trouble?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981218/uj.html
*********
extract from Colin's financial pages
*********
it would seriously suggest that there is NOT enough GOLD to go round
Haggis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:53
Greenstone Gold (A Swiss Hedge Fund in TROUBLE ) ID#428218: -
Gold tests $290.00 support on Swiss jitters [Dec 18] Things must be getting really bad if the Swiss Gold Sale story is trotted out again... perhaps another hedge fund in trouble?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981218/uj.html
*********
extract from Colin's financial pages
*********
Haggis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:52
ERLE (Stupidity on parade, again.) ID#190411: - I couldn't control myself, and bought some more goldshares today.
I bought Cyclist's NEM when he sold at 17.875, more Anglogold, more St.Helena, more TVX.
It's all Gollum's fault. If they go down, I'll blame him, and if they go up, I'll congratulate myself on my acumen.
Gollum, I tried to talk TYoung into buying at the end of August, to no avail.
Where the heck is Studio.R? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:51
James (What a farce@The media keeps talking about war with Iraq. CNBC has) ID#252150: - showdown with Iraq as their header. They are trying to imply that there is an opponent in their cowardly, criminal aggression.
This showdown would be like the gunfight at the O.K. corral, except Wyatt Earp, Doc Halliday & their buddies have 45s with live ammo & their opponents have cap pistols.
IMO, the insane criminal has disgraced America forever. Unfortunately, the average citizen by acqiescing with this criminal aggression, has forfeited the respect & goodwill of the rest of the world. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:48
FOX-MAN (Atta boy, Mike!(regarding your 18:39) AND: I hope your right!(regarding the 18:44)) ID#288186: - : )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:44
Mike Sheller (jims) ID#348257: - let me differ with you ( in a friendly fashion of course ) - gold at $370 by April.
OK? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:39
Mike Sheller (tolerant 1) ID#348257:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Oh tolerant One. There is no shame. Save for Mr Bill and his family. And that is a personal affair. As for the United States of America, beacon for the world despite its human imperfections, this impeachment trial, if nothing else, demonstrates the rule of law over the mob. The fact that the American people wish to have Clinton remain as their overseer is insignificant if he has comitted the kind of crime that would prevent ANY ONE OF US ( Americans ) from conducting our business as usual. A mob is not just or right, necessarily. America is a Constitutional Republic, not a mob-ocracy.
It must be stated plainly and clearly and loud - Bill Clinton lied about his adulterous doings with Ms Monica because he wished to avoid categorization as a philandering d*ck head in the Paula Jones case. By doing so, he denied an ordinary citizen the right to due process and any kind of fair evaluation of her charges that the man made unseemly advances to her. Charges that have banished others from public office, and sent civilians to jail.
Paula Jones is an ORDINARY citizen. It is the GLORY of the US CONSTITUTION that even the President is not above the law vis a vis an ORDINARY citizen. To have used his power and office to crush the obviously legitimate complaint of an insulted and degraded ordinary citizen is the act of a despot. What irony that at this very moment he is attacking another despot, Saddam Hussein, while his soul is blackened by the injustice he has done to an American citizen through his lies and deceit.
Who is the true trailer trash now?
This impeachment hearing is about the ORDINARY CITIZEN having SOME dignity, some legitimacy. America, for all its flaws, is still the beacomn of world civilization, and this miraculous event only demonstrates why. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:39
tolerant1 (pssst.......pssst...yeah...you...read this...) ID#20359: - http://www.usajournal.com/P-Pages/power_to_make_war.htm
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:39
Mooney* (@ EB - The Derivatives Trader.) ID#350194: - Didn't know what you were doing eh? Ignorance is no excuse! Duh!!!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:38
larryn (Jimmy Rogers) ID#318142: - His page is www.jimrogers.com but is under construction. He says he will be adding comments as he travels, starting in Iceland, where he said he had investments.
Has anyone figured out a way to package hot lava?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:36
FOX-MAN (baal shem; (Regarding Clinton) Even if Gold were at 850/oz, most of us here) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - that see this president for who he really is, would still hold him in low
esteem. Maybe you only pay attention to what the mainstream media
spins about this president, or maybe you just don't pay close attention
to what he has done politically, but there's no way, in my eyes, that
you can say he's done much of anything that's good for this country!
Clinton and his cronies have the American people dazzled with their
talk. But talk is cheap. DON'T LISTEN TO WHAT CLINTON SAYS! ACTIONS
SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS!!!
P.S. Character DOES matter!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:36
Mooney* (@ALL and @fergie@Fri Dec 18 1998 17:12) ID#350194: - In case some of the others don't point it out - ALL such posts are read and appreciated even if they aren't immediately acknowledged. Thanks - One and ALL for ALL the efforts and input!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:29
EB (I guess I was looking for something fancy.....) ID#230216: - with regards to derivatives......hell, I trade derivatives ( options/futures ) almost every day................I guess there are MANY forms of derivatives....................... ( duh ) ...
away.......to keep it as simple as possible......always.
Éßdimbulb - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:29
jims () ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - S&P vs Gold to go to approach 5::1 from 4
By April '99 if not sooner:
Gold at $270, DOW at 9999, S&P at 1300, oil at $8.50 and the CRB at 145.
Do note that the dollar is slipping, if the bonds turn over ( fat chance with deflation accelerating ) I'd change my mind about the direction.
Major firepower pulled to the sidelines as CRB, Gold and Metals' trends are down any way you want to look at it, other than upside down.
It may be crazy to think the January effect will occur again, especially when everybody else thinks it will, but then crazy is the name of the equity market. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:28
JTF (More cruise missles launched than during entire Gulf war) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - All: A little tidbit for you. I think Saddam is getting a bit annoyed. But -- I'll bet he doesn't have a scratch on him -- despite satellite guided missles with 3 meter absolute accuracy. Hope we will let up before Santa makes his tour.
http://www.yahoo.com.sg/headlines/191298/world/914001960-1218182652.newsworld.html
By the way -- don't forget -- Impeachment proceedings begin tommorrow at 9AM EST ( USA ) . Won't be long now, before WJC makes history. The second US president to be impeached. Last one 130 or so years ago. Looks like WJC will go down in the history books as the promiscuous president whe lied to the people, the grand juries under oath, Congress, and to his staff at the WhiteHouse.
I do not wish the markets to head south, but they will -eventually when the significance sinks in. And gold/gold equities will rise. We Kitcoites are always temporally out of sync a bit -- seeing events before they happen. But happen they will -- in their own time.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:26
tolerant1 (EB, ORCA, Namaste' gulps and puffs to ya...EB...back at ya...one at home as well...) ID#20359: - ORCA...an extra special gulp and a puff to ya...Brabo!...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:24
tolerant1 (Old Soldier, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I think this entire repugnant shame is) ID#20359: - due to one thing and one individual...WJC...no more...no less...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:22
aurator (Golden Beagles) ID#257148: - kiwi
interesting that the fly boys get Krands and not sovs, francs or eagles... It pays to know your market.
The market price ain't always the price in the market.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:18
OLD GOLD () ID#242326: - James: What is Jimmy Rogers' URL
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:18
jims (Envy and the Gold / S&P ratio) ID#252391: - Your sage words and reasoning coupled with the FACTS is turning me into a believer that it is too early to be in gold as, the deflationary cycle is not over, nor is the top in stocks IN. We may be close but being positioned too early has proven to espensive and the final wash out ( in metals stock ) and ramp up in general equities will likely be dramatic.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:18
ORCA (Did not !! DID not !! D-I-D N-O-T !!!) ID#231337:
Copyright © 1998 ORCA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - President Clinton's Testimony by Dr. Seuss
I did not do it in a car
I did not do it in a bar
I did not do it in the dark
I did not do it in the park
I did not do it on a date
I did not ever fornicate
I did not do it at a dance
I did not do it in her pants
I did not get beyond first base
I did not do it in her face
I never did it in a bed
If you think that, you've been misled
I did not do it with a groan
I did not do it on the phone
I did not cause her dress to stain
I never boinked Saddam Hussein
I did not do it with a whip
I never fondled Linda Tripp
I never acted really silly
With volunteers like Kathleen Willey
There was one time, with Margaret Thatcher
I chased her 'round, but could not catch her
No kinky stuff, not on your life
I wouldn't, even with my wife
And Gennifer Flowers' tale of woes
Was paid for by my right-wing foes
And Paula Jones, and those State Troopers
Are just a bunch of party poopers
I did not ask my friends to lie
I did not hang them out to dry
I did not do it last November
But if I did, I don't remember
I did not do it in the hall
I could have, but I don't recall
I never did it in my study
I never did it with my dog, Buddy
I never did it to Sox, the cat
I might have-once-with Arafat
I never did it in a hurry
I never groped Ms. Betty Currie
There was no sex at Arlington
There was no sex on Air Force One
I might have copped a little feel
And then endeavored to conceal
But never did these things so lewd
At least, not ever in the nude
These things to which I have confessed
They do not count, if we stayed dressed
It never happened with cigar
I never dated Mrs. Starr
I did not know this little sin
Would be retold on CNN
I broke some rules my Mama taught me
I tried to hide, but now you've caught me
But I implore, I do beseech
Do not condemn, do not impeach
I might have got a little tail
But never, never did inhale
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:16
baal shem (why klinton?) ID#261229: - A lot of hostility towards Mr. Bill. Is this because gold is so cheap? If gold were $850/oz would Bill be great ? Like the great Jimmy Carter? Forget about the yellow stuff. Check in 10 years or so.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:16
baal shem (why klinton?) ID#261229: - A lot of hostility towards Mr. Bill. Is this because gold is so cheap? If gold were $850/oz would Bill be great ? Like the great Jimmy Carter? Forget about the yellow stuff. Check in 10 years or so.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:15
OLD GOLD (tolerentl) ID#242326: - On the matter of the media. They will always lie about things like this. Iraq supposedly is such a threat but is helpless to defend itself against a murderous bombing attack. A big lie of Hitlerian scale.
This whole thing ia about the US and Israeli elites wanting a compliant government in Iraq similar to Jordan and Egypt. And Clinton's desire to head off impeachment. That is the nitty gritty. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:15
OLD GOLD (tolerentl) ID#242326: - On the matter of the media. They will always lie about things like this. Iraq supposedly is such a threat but is helpless to defend itself against a murderous bombing attack. A big lie of Hitlerian scale.
This whole thing ia about the US and Israeli elites wanting a compliant government in Iraq similar to Jordan and Egypt. And Clinton's desire to head off impeachment. That is the nitty gritty. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:06
James (Just caught Jimmie Rogers on CNBC. He left no doubt about the contempt & ) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - disdain he feels for Klinton. In his opinion the only thing that Klinton is accomplishing ( outside of his own devious motives ) is alienating the the U.S. from the rest of the world. He asked how long will they keep bombing? Even if they keep it going until they run out of missiles, saddam will still be there.
He leaves next week for a 3 yr trip around the world in his Mercedes, which he will pick up in Iceland. He was planning on going thru the ME, but may have second thoughts, although he says he will still be welcome in Iran where he sees some great opportunities.
He will be posting daily on his web site. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:04
Mooney* (@Envy) ID#350194: - I ENVY YOU! You are so good! AND I am NEVER going to listen to Envy for investment advice because Envy always says the weirdest things and never makes any sense at all. NOT! ;- ) ( Watch for the parabolic lift-off folks! )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 18:02
EB (thanks for the links gang.....) ID#230216: - Auric - couldn't get into SI sight......oh well, thanks anyway.
Auratorfunnytalkergnuzeelander - I spell it v-o-l-u-m-e. Must be some bad spellers around here......doesn't suprise me that it comes from the yanks ;- )
SDRer - not too dreadful......I usually read the good stuff over and over......thanks.
Kevan - A tommohawk missile/missle ( for aurator ) cruising your way....non lethal variety............BOOM!
away......to the charts
Éß
go golf.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:57
tolerant1 (The media is a joke...they keep saying we are at war...I ain't seen one of these filled out...nope..) ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Joint Resolution Passed by the United States Senate and House of Representatives
Effective ______ ________ _______
WHEREAS, The ___________ Government has committed repeated acts of war against the Government and the people of the United States of America; therefore, be it
Resolved, by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the state of war between the United States and the ___________, which has thus been thrust upon the United States, is hereby formally declared; and
That the President be, and he is hereby, authorized and directed to employ the entire naval and military forces of the United States and the resources of the Government to carry on war against the ________; and to bring the conflict to a successful termination all the resources of the country are hereby pledged by the Congress of the United States.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:38
kiwi (Now here's some real good gold press...) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Clipped from The Times of London.
Golden rule for survival
THEY fly daring missions in
state-of-the-art £20 million Tornados
carrying high-tech smart bombs costing
£22,000. But if forced to eject from their jets,
the RAF pilots and navigators in action over
Iraq may owe their lives to a handful of gold
coins.
In their survival waistcoats are ten
krugerrands, each worth about £180, for
bribing local people to help them to safety.
Also in waistcoats are notes in a dozen
languages - including Arabic, Persian and
Turkish - asking for assistance and
promising further rewards from Britain.
The coats contain radios and strobe lights for
attracting search-and-rescue missions,
Global Positioning Systems and a Walther
PPK handgun with two magazines of
ammunition.
Got survival? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:38
Envy (Equity Markets) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Will they crash ? Yes. When ? Dunno. The equities have a base under them, things that have to be in place for them to increase in value. People jump in the markets because they are optimistic and see increasing profits down the line, more efficiency, etc, and those things get reflected in the P/E ratios of the stocks. Right now, P/E ratios are extreme, in the 30's on average, and even when we dumped in summer we were still looking at the high 20's and 30's. The historical average is something around 12. P/E ratios are going higher, both because there is more money going into the markets forcing the prices up ( the P part of P/E ) , and because earnings are falling ( the E part of P/E ) . When will the P/E go non-linear and crash ? Who can say, but the end of a bull market like this will be spectacular and it will go into the history books, you can't bring a thing like this down gently. The day the bears finally give up, the day the market just blows the roof and looks like it can never be stopped, the day the graph goes vertical, that'll be the day to finally get short. It'll go vertical after a steady climb that increases before the end. I wish I knew when it would be because the people who bet against the climb will make a lot of money the day it crashes, a whole lot of money, and everyone else will leave the table holding a lot of equity paper.
NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:26
kiwi (LGB...I like it.) ID#194311: - Madeline Notat Allbright!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:15
FOX-MAN (Steve Kaplan's site is updated for Friday's closing. He has upgraded his) ID#288186: - level of bullisness due to the improvements in the Gold COT's...
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:13
tolerant1 (uh huh...yup...) ID#20359: - THE JANUARY EFFECT: Market analysts are virtually unanimous in their conviction that the stock market will rally in January, merely because it usually does. Anything that is so certain to happen usually doesn't, since buying has already been done in anticipation of its inevitable occurrence. The January effect has, in essence, been transformed into a December effect. Look for the unthinkable to happen: the stock market will drop in January 1999.
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:12
fergie (ANOTHER new high in the S&P/Gold ratio...) ID#14431:
Copyright © 1998 fergie/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Another new high all-time today in the S&P 500/Gold ratio: 4.112.
This is 20.9% over year-end 1997 ( 3.402 ) ;
46.8% over 1968's peak day ( 2.802 ) ;
165.8% over 1929's peak day ( 1.547 ) ;
and, 3,015.3% over 1980's bottom day ( 0.132 ) .
Stocks, relative to gold, have gone up by 19.8% a year for almost 19 years. That sure explains our pain.
Perhaps, in the midst of this, it would help to remember how stocks plummeted, relative to gold, from 1968 to 1980. From peak to trough, the ratio went from 2.802, to 0.132, a DECLINE in stocks of 95.3% relative to gold. How 'bout them apples? On an annual basis, stocks declined 22.5% per year relative to gold, for those 12 years.
An interesting phenomenon over the last 200 years or so is that S&P/gold ratio has gotten progressively higher at market tops, but that stock market bottoms haven't produced the same pattern. In other words, over time, the peaks have gotten higher with each cycle, but when stocks turn lower, they return to basically the same depths. With stocks now almost 50% higher than 1968's peak, it could get extraordinarily ugly when the market turns.
Here are the cyclical peaks and lows in the ratio, for the last 198 years:
PEAKS
0.167--1802
0.318--1881
1.547--1929
2.802--1968
4.112--12/18/98
LOWS
0.057--1857
0.184--1896
0.221--1942
0.132--1980
We certainly live in interesting ( and painful ) times.
FWIW, Fergie - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:09
JTF (Peeking over the edge) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Neer-do-well: I know that giddy feeling too -- from looking over a cliff. I think we can say with certainty that 1999 will be an eventful year. Perhaps we are seeing the final blowoff of the equities markets. Y2k will put up quite a barrier for all of those baby boomers to bounce against. Wish I were up in the Mountains where you are -- the Cascades are breathtaking -- though I like Glacier the best. Never got close to the Olympic National forest -- only got as far as Port Angeles before I had to return.
I am in the semi-rural MidWest -- will have little trouble with access to food/grains with all the farmers nearby -- assuming they are able to keep body and soul together before they are really popular again. I have a strong suspicion that there will be a major movement 'back to basics' in the next few years, as our goverment grinds to a halt. Less worried about our free enterprise system, which is far more adaptable.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:02
SDRer (EB re: reading twice…) ID#286249: -
That sounds like it is 'above the call of duty' and VERY dreary indeed…and one is bound to apologize for not being clearer…
However, please DON'T tell me that-in an effort to discover CB MO's, I've started to 'think/write' like 'em…
très depressing…{:- ( ( (
Here is an excellent risk/reward site:
Overview of foreign exchange settlement risk types of risk ++++++ many others…fairly straightforward language and good case studies
http://risk.ifci.ch/
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 17:02
kiwi (Disturbing THOUGHTS) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Be careful what you wish for goldbugs....do you really want a gold backed dollar....do really wish for a return to the gold standard? Perhaps this is exactly what Alan Greenspan has in mind. Right now it seems certain forces have been very succesful in maintaining gold in a narrow range between US$285-295 for almost a year, this constitutes a rather strong link between gold and the dollar. Can this link be maintained indefinitely is the next logical question.
Well if AG is prepared to open up the US gold reserves and start minting like there's no tomorrow, 8000 tonnes of circulating gold coins would go a along way to satisfying the world's appetite for gold backed dollars. Will it go far enough and will the US Fed reserve trust the people to hold there own gold responsibly? They must or else they wouldn't be doing their level best to sate gold demand with rocketing coin sales. Perhaps a golden era is already upon the US but those who bought in at above US$295 have paid a prememium price for a return to sanity. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:56
rhody (Impeachment: This is a tempest in a teapot. Clinton) ID#413307: - will not resign, because although he may be impeached, the
Senate will not vote to remove him from office. This is a
non-issue, and will be a yawn to the markets. Our boy
will just ride this one out, and so will the markets. IMHO - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:56
Envy (Friday 18 Dec 98's News, The Trend Continues) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Deflationary trend continued this week, likely to continue as the ultimate fundamental for some time to come, because it is accelerating. Prices are dropping due to over-production and decreasing activity, which leads to everyone in the world fighting for market share in an ever-smaller international market. What can be done ? Not much, the trend will continue until it is time for it to stop, and not before then. People are, and will, try to do something about it, but it's much better to follow the Tao of it and not get hit by a speeding train. Not much can be done, producers will continue to cut prices in an effort to get something for the goods they've produced and the market will set the price for most items,
Grain Futures Continue Down
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn09.htm
Chilean Fruit Floods U.S. Ports
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1o.htm
Companies will continue to lay off employees, cut costs, and do anything they can to increase market share or at least keep it the same by cutting prices. When companies are forced to, they'll start to cut back on production. Whole industries will begin getting together to put pressure on the government to do something about the situation,
Nissan To Cut Domestic Production
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn03.htm
Pork Producer Leader Urges Lobby
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0o.htm
And the government will listen to industry. The government can't do much, they can try to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates, pushing more money into the internation markets in an attempt to get people to borrow and purchase,
Hong Kong Banks Cut Interest Rates
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn1y.htm
And they'll start bringing together organizations to address the problem, discuss options with industries and that type of thing,
Mexican Official Discusses Oil
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0g.htm
But in the end, there's not much they can really do. One side-effect of the discussions with industry is always isolationism, that is, policies and procedures designed to cut down on imports and increase exports for a particular countries goods and services. We can expect to see increasing numbers of countries devalue their currencies and put up trade barriers to stop imports,
Japan Backs Imported Rice Tariffs
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn0e.htm
In the end, the trend will continue until it doesn't continue anymore. Better to be on the right side of things and not attempt to trade long term against the trend, as it will only lead to frustration.
NEVER LISTEN TO ENVY FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:53
FOX-MAN (CEI GOLD: COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS....) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 12/18/98--FWN--As of Dec 15,1998
( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES )
-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI
Non Commercial 8,951 -3,355 23,617 +6,161 11.0
spreading 20,417 -547 20,417 -547 13.8
Commercial 91,654 +9,055 77,427 -5,796 57.0
Tot lrg trader 121,022 +5,153 121,461 -182 81.6
Small traders 27,433 -2,084 26,994 +3,251 18.4
Total OI 148,455 +3,069
********************************************************************** - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:48
FOX-MAN (CEI SILVER: COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS...) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 12/18/98--FWN--As of Dec 15,1998
( CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES )
-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI
Non Commercial 27,150 -1,008 19,953 -1,345 29.2
spreading 3,340 +664 3,340 +664 4.1
Commercial 22,226 -1,117 42,980 -447 40.4
Tot lrg trader 52,716 -1,461 66,273 -1,128 73.7
Small traders 28,052 -76 14,495 -409 26.3
Total OI 80,768 -1,537
********************************************************************* - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:44
kiwi (How much in ounces Au does it cost....) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - to produce 1 ounce of gold?
It seems to me like there should be some sort of historical cost ( excluding funny money cost like interest, hedging loan fees etc. ) which gold will always oscillate around, hence the incredibly stable price of gold as a measure of labour. In fact this seems also to be at the root of the fallacy of pricing gold production costs in funny money at all. If you do then you will settle for producing gold at cost in funny money terms, plus a little profit. However as a producer you will have been duped into thinking that a fair price for producing 1 ounce of gold is nearly one ounce of gold!
Which would mean to say that as an investor you would take one ounce of gold invest it in a gold mine and expect to get back only a little more than 1 ounce of gold in return. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:44
Greenstone Gold (William Jefferson Clinton..............Klingon Clinton) ID#428218: -
Is to be refered to, by all members of the Kitco Club, as.....Klingon !
Will all members please adhere to club membership, and refer to WJC as Klingon.
Thankyou.
Haggis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:43
neer-do-well (JTF) ID#391172:
Copyright © 1998 neer-do-well/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Just buy organic hard spring or winter wheat and put it in plastic pails,get a ton. Start eating it right away, a vta-mix or corona hand grinder and fresh ground whole wheat bread and cereal, the only problem is gaining weight. It will keep forever as far as you are concerned. Corn, rice, beans can be handled the same way, plastic pails make it all possible, they are air-tight. Keep your eye out for a small, smallest generator the better, for a back-up, yard sale qaulity, I've run them for years with no trouble, lots of people don't know when to change a spark plug.
I spent some time working in the mountains of Washington State and sometimes went right on the edge of things. You get a certain hard to explain sense of yourself there, bnoth power and vuneralbility, some people find it addictive, not me. I'm getting that feeling again, and I don't see the edge? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:43
tolerant1 (Billions of dollars as Clintler spends OUR money with each missle launch...yup...) ID#20359: - http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_btl/19981218_xcbtl_6_years_an.shtml
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:43
FOX-MAN (NYMEX PLATINUM: COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS...) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 12/18/98--FWN--As of Dec 08,1998
( CONTRACTS OF 50 TROY OUNCES )
-- --- --- LONG CHG SHORT CHG %OI
Non Commercial 4,305 -413 2,876 +2 26.2
spreading 155 +130 155 +130 1.1
Commercial 5,457 +126 8,865 -1,016 52.3
Tot lrg trader 9,917 -157 11,896 -884 79.6
Small traders 3,777 -478 1,798 +249 20.4
Total OI 13,694 -635
*********************************************************************
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:42
JTF (Equities rally into January?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - All: Looks like a rally into the month of January is very likely now. Even if WJC is impeached, it will take some time for the turmoil to reach the markets. Probably nothing until well after Jan 6 when the trial begins in the Senate. I wonder how much more gold bullion will go down before it bottoms. Can't go much further without causing panic in the CB types around the world. As long as the financial gurus can keep a lid on the world financial system, we can rest assured that eventually gold will go up. But -- I am worried about those possible 'gold fire sales' that tend to preceed equity collapses.
Even after WJC is impeached, he is likely to have something up his sleeve -- another crisis. Korea this time? Or a continuation of the Saddam story. Jan 20 will be a pivotal time -- will WJC resign or won't he? I doubt it. He thrives on living at the edge, and this must be the ultimate 'high' for him. Probably a loose-loose situation for Al Gore. Either way -- resignation or no- some of the dirt will spatter on Mr 'Green'.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:38
FOX-MAN (COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS....) ID#288186:
Copyright © 1998 FOX-MAN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Dec. 18
-- TOTALS
Gold 811,471 - 195 troy ounces
Silver 76,638,215 - 230,903 troy ounces
Copper 91,286 + 1,062 short tons
********************************************************************
There was an adjustment in Gold warehouse stocks, as well! About
5,000 oz's were transferred from Eligible to Registered. If I remember
right, this is bullish for gold according to Arden. This means the
owner is less willing to leave their Gold as eligible as time goes
on! Yes, the Total Eligible Gold continues to decrease!
I'll post the Commitment of Traders Stats shortly.
Fox-man
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:34
aurator () ID#257148: - Éß
Here are some derivative link sites
http://www.wiso.gwdg.de/ifbg/derivate.html
http://apollo.netservers.com/~waldemar/f_info.html#5A
apologies for my spelling of fiancé. I am discovering more and more differences of spelling. Here's another one: I have often seen volumn written here, I must now accept this is how Merkans spell volume. Interesting.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:31
tolerant1 (EB, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...email me...) ID#20359: - tolerant1@earthlink.net
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:29
LGB (@ Old Gold....Clinton's timing) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Also interesting is that Clinton has SUDDENLY found it necessary to take a macho stand against Saddam, the day before impeachment debate..when just 4 months ago, the head inspector for Unscom resigned in disguest because CLINTON directed ( via Madeline AllNotveryBright ) the inspectors to STAND DOWN and cease doing their jobs effectively...cause it might be offensive to Saddam and all.
And then we have the very clear fact that the situation with Saddam violating the UN resolutions has been ongoing from day 1, and that there is absolutely nothing new that compels us to hit him now, vs. earlier.
The sanctimonious hypocritical liars in the Demo party who claim that impeachment hearings are such a terrible betrayal of our military ouoghta all be lined up and shot along with their cornered rat leader...but then...the electorate totally buys into each and every spoon fed piece of nonsensical crap that the Democrat controlled media slings their way...
so maybe we do indeed get the democracy we deserve..... - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:25
tolerant1 (DOW 10000 before GOLD $325 USA Dollars...) ID#20359: - No...not...won't happen...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:23
EB (*St Helena GOld Mines*) ID#230216:
- - Thanks CB for the info.
Hey KUSTON!! Where are you buddy? Didn't you tell me once that you had some shares of SGOLY in your portfolio I seem to remember when we were playing a little white-ball last summer. Or was it ANOTHER stok that paid some decent dividend........hmmmmmm...
I don't know if'n I can make it out this next year, I'll let ya know. We'll play the Kirsten course............uh huh. I'll spot you a stroke {;-^ ) ......or two....... ( yuk yuk ) . btw, we haven't heard from you in a while. We keep putting those birds up for you ( VAFB ) .....you still babysitting them What's up dude?
away....to find kuston
Éß
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:18
LGB (@ Gollum..... you have it all wrong) ID#269409: - You said
Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:23
Gollum ( Actually this may be the best day of all ) ID#424140:
Today one can jump in at the lows, and sell out in only a couple of weeks at a handsome profit, but not have to pay any taxes on the gain untill the year 2000.
No Gollum, actually......what you want to do is buy Amazon, Yahoo, Ebay, et al right now...ride them to 3000+ each, sell before Y2K, and then you'll NEVER have to pay a profit because no govt. agency will ever be able to track us ever again! ( hehehehe hohohoh hahaha ) - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:04
jims (Well going the wrong way on a one way street. ) ID#252391: - Deflation has gold and oil on the ropes....period. Beginning to think this is the only way to look at the future landscape. Euro will have effect on dollar but nobody seems concerned as might be expressed in gold or commodities. This may change but I've become more content to wait...Only PD which keeps SWC attractive seems a worthwhile speculation on a long term earnings situation..
Oil drillers....probably will loose another 25-50% as cut backs roll out one after another next year.
Holding growth stock mutual funds
DOW 10,000 before gold $315 - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:03
jims (Well going the wrong way on a one way street. ) ID#252391: - Deflation has gold and oil on the ropes....period. Beginning to think this is the only way to look at the future landscape. Euro will have effect on dollar but nobody seems concerned as might be expressed in gold or commodities. This may change but I've become more content to wait...Only PD which keeps SWC attractive seems a worthwhile speculation on a long term earnings situation..
Oil drillers....probably will loose another 25-50% as cut backs roll out one after another next year.
Holding growth stock mutual funds
DOW 10,000 before gold $315 - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:00
Auric (EB-- Derivatives) ID#257312: -
Good thread at Silicon Investors called
Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge. http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/S
ubject-22689 - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 16:00
trader_vic (CRB Index) ID#372228:
Copyright © 1998 trader_vic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I have been watching the CRB Index and can't help but notice that we are breaking thru 190 and oil looks like it could break thru $10 here soon...it should be interesting to see the faces of AG and RR when oil hits $8 or lower and all of Latin America decides to take a Banking Holiday sort of like Russia did...Both are very smart...they first take all the money that the IMF can get together, then they find a reason to let the economy collapse...meanwhile the politicians are banking those dollars in offshore accounts and buying one way tickets to some lonely island in the Carribean. I guess the only ones more stupid than we are, is the IMF for thinking that they do anything good in this world...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:39
mapleman (ON HANGING TOUGH) ID#350288:
Copyright © 1998 mapleman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
So many ideas out there on what is responsible for golds demise, and which one is the truth. To fully believe in something you must research it and come to your own conclusion. The most reasonable conclusion is your most likely cause is still true, but you must understand the underlying truths to get there. It is my belief that we are standing at the edge of a paradigm shift. Physical gold will be a player in the new system as it was in the past. Search out stuff like Dan Winters,Zacharia Sitchen and JJ Hurtak to get ready for whats a coming. I am not trying to be elusive on the subject. I just know that the truth is so bizare that you wouldn't believe it unless you discovered it for yourself. GO GOLD - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:37
mapleman (ON HANGING TOUGH) ID#350288:
Copyright © 1998 mapleman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
So many ideas out there on what is responsible for golds demise, and which one is the truth. To fully believe in something you must research it and come to your own conclusion. The most reasonable conclusion is your most likely cause is still true, but you must understand the underlying truths to get there. It is my belief that we are standing at the edge of a paradigm shift. Physical gold will be a player in the new system as it was in the past. Search out stuff like Dan Winters,Zacharia Sitchen and JJ Hurtak to get ready for whats a coming. I am not trying to be elusive on the subject. I just know that the truth is so bizare that you wouldn't believe it unless you discovered it for yourself. GO GOLD - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:35
EB (Foxman....that's a good question you ask....) ID#230216:
- -
Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:32
FOX-MAN ( glenn; I'm still new with options so I may be wrong or thinking wrong, but
is ) ID#288186:
possible that these professional options traders are selling/writing
these Dec '99 Gold calls at, say, 350.00, then waiting for the premium
to go down several tics, and then buying a Dec '99 Gold call at a lower
strike price, thus locking in a profit? ///Whew! That's a long sentence!
Hope it makes sense!
-------------------------------------------------
Since most ( 90%+? ) options bought expire worthless it would go to figure that selling them is more profitable than buying them. In the pits its ALOT easier to get in and out of a position. That is, as Glenn puts it, how they make a living......... ( scalping if you will ) .......and a good one for many........and not so good for others. Problem with 'writing' is that you tend to 'hang in the breeze' a little more than you would otherwise..........'tis not something for the timid or the less than nimble or those that lack having done his homework............................¡Tén cuidado!
SDRer - I have to stop and read your stuff a couple-o-times.......thanks for posting.....most educational. Can you post some URL's regarding Derivatives and such. I very well uneducated in this respect and also my Dad wanted to have some reading about such things......can anyone else lend a hand as well? TIA
away...to the weekend......after a little grind.....
Éß
wordaurator - fiancé is how we spell it in these parts.......but then again, we're not too bright ya know ;- ) ..........
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:35
OLD GOLD (Monica Math) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
MONICA MATH
Found on the Net
When one mentions the word coincidence, he is entering the field of statistics.
Two pivotal events: 1. Monica testifies. 2. House votes on impeachment.
These pivotal events are not related to bombing runs. In the same year as the
two pivotal events we have two bombing runs. Sudan-Afghanistan and Iraq.
Odds of one bombing run occurring on a pivotal event day: 91:1
Odds of both bombing runs occurring on pivotal event days: 66,248:1
Proof:
Odds of one bombing run happening on one of the pivotal days--
The first bombing run would have a chance of 2 in 365 or 2/365 and if it
missed the second bombing run would have the same chance of 2 in 365 or
2/365. the two chances add together 2/365 + 2/365 = 4/365. this reduces to
1/91.25 or odds of 91:1.
Odds of both bombing runs happening on the two pivotal days-- The first bombing
run has to occur on one of the pivotal days which is a chance of 2 in 365 or
1/182. The second bombing run then has to occur on the remaining pivotal day
which is a chance of 1 in 364 or 1/364. It is 364 because the first pivotal
day is now out of the picture ( n-1 ) . Since the two events depend on each other
happening to occur together, they multiply. 1/182 X 1/364 = 1/66,248 or odds
of 66,248:1.
FRIENDS OF BILL
Hustler publisher Larry Flynt is taking credit for coming up with the dirt on
Robert Livingston and promises more. He told the New York Post, When our
report comes out, Clinton's going to look like Mary Poppins compared to the
rest of these guys. Flynt says Hustler found four women who claimed to have
had affairs with Livingston over a ten year period.
We have an audiotape. He's having phone sex with one of the girls, and
it's pretty raunchy, Flynt told The Post. It's pretty kinky, his activity
with these women.
Of course, what Flynt and other Clinton apologists choose to ignore is that the
issue is not sex. As Christopher Hitchens point out, if it had been, Clinton
would have been impeached on his first day in office. The real roots of
Clinton's current problems lie in an attempt by the president to deny Paula
Jones her rights under the law by testifying honestly in her law suit. That's a
different type of scum, Larry.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:33
JTF (Free Willy? Logging off.) ID#254321: - TechTrader: Good one. My thought this moring that the best way to stop the action in Iraq was to Impeach WJC ASAP. Think Saddam is lobbying congress as we speak? Only fair, given the international flavor of Presidential campaigns these days.
Well -- I wonder how much Saddam made in the markets this time. He's certainly getting foxier -- let the journalists stay, leave on all the lights, and not a single twitch of agression from his military. He's not as dumb as some of us think.
When it comes to foreign affairs, I think WJC has met more than his match.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:17
Cyclist (correction) ID#339274: - 17 13/16,I wish : ) .Monday another day
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:17
JTF (Agreed) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Allen ( USA ) : You and I are on the same wavelength. The idea is to look with open eyes at what is coming, and identify the biggest problem areas, and prepare accordingly. I have already contacted Social Security about my and spouses contribution records, which will undoubtedly be lost next year. Now have official copies of the records. Expecially important since all government agencies will absolve themselves of any responsibility of losing records. Those who depend on federal paychecks for their survival will be at greatest risk. If you do -- make sure you keep all your paystubs. You will need them to prove you exist, and how much you are paid.
I really don't care if the IRS loses my records, but I expect they will keep active by downloading raw data from Lexis-Nexis, or similar database.
I find it amusing that 1984 is finally coming, complements of the information revolution. But 2yk is coming, too. When the dust settles, our stodgy government will be unrecognizeable. No wonder members of the government are worried -- they are ( most of ) the problem, not the solution.
By the way -- I have just bought a Generac 4000LT. Only $600. What is nice about it is that it will run for 13 hours on 1/2 power ( enough to operate for minimum comfort ) , it can be converted to natural gas, it has full pressure lubrication with provision for an oil filter, and it has cast iron sleeves. I still haven't identified a supplier of repair kits, but when I do, I will have something almost as good as the Honda/Onan/Kohler/Yanmar units at a fraction of the cost. With the current gasoline preservatives, I should be able to store gasoline for a year. No more dangerous than the 20 gallon tank in my antique Imperial that gets exercised every 6 months or so.
I have 1500 gallons of water in the back yard, in an exercise pool. Only need to think about food stores. Thinking about buying a nitrogen tank, and sealing grains, etc in an dry/oxygen free environment. Can't afford buying freeze dried food without incurring the wrath of spouse. Her ears did perk up when I said that the gold coin business was going out of sight this year.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:15
Cyclist (Nem) ID#339274: - Sold 18 13/16,have a good weekend
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:13
tolerant1 (Hillary Clinton...what a piece of work...she stays for two reasons and two reasons only...) ID#20359: - money and power...no more...no less...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:11
rube (amazed) ID#333127: - With gold off xau continues to amaze and hold above 65.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 15:11
Charleston Gold Bug (XAU Support 64) ID#344389: - If we take out 64 the XAU should spike down
and should lead the major stock indexes in a
wave 1 decline. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:53
Gollum (Got mail?) ID#424140: - 14:36 POSTAL TALKS BROKE OFF NOV. 20.
14:36 POSTAL OFFICIALS, CARRIER UNION TO RESUME TALKS JAN. 5. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:45
Allen(USA) (JTF) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - That is why I asked the reader to consider the problem multiplied by every city, county, organization,... Yes. Medicare/Medicaid amounts to from 1/3rd to 2/3rds of a public hospital's budget. Think: water, electricity, food, drugs, supplies, personnel, paper, etc. Health care organizations are really alot like GM in that they take alot of raw material/processed material, combined it with skill and application to provide a service/product. There are a tremendous number of dependencies. And these types of organizations are very slow moving and conservative by nature. Since they are tied together with government so very tightly they will fail as government fails, just based on the failure of government to provide the monies for reimbursement.
A real house of cards situation for 99.9% of us. Got preparations? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:44
Gollum (The year of darkness) ID#424140: - Three events shall come to pass. One major, one minor, and one hardly seen. The least of these shall be the most perilous.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:39
Gollum (The Falcon stands like a rock) ID#424140: - Selene has passed the nadir, now growing crescent moves toward gibbous. The Phoenix births midst ashes of ruin, and Selene turns full face at the coming of the year of darkness.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:35
JTF (Quo Vadis? Gold to go up or down?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gollum: What do you think? Is AG et al keeping a lid on gold to keep it from going up, or desperately preparing it from suddenly collapsing? I think the turmoil in the markets is going to increase before the dust settles, and a clear inflationary trend declares itself.
Right now, I am regretting my somewhat aggressive position in gold equities - based on anticipation of a long drawn out impeachment battle in the Senate. My guess is that this will override the bearish effect of deflation on gold.
Looks like the markets have already disounted the Impeachment of the president by the House. Congress is undoubtedly far more aware of the magnitude of the crisis -- both the markets and the American Public seem to be much more in the dark ( the darkness you refer to? ) .
I guess this is no surprise -- it is my guess that most people 'in the know' in our government would be more than happy to limit the WJC - related scandals to Monicagate. Alot of people will have egg on their faces -- democrats and republicans alike -- if all the dirt were to get out. My guess is only enough dirt to Impeach the president will surface -- for now.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:34
Gollum (@TYoung) ID#424140: - I've pushed her down all I can Cap'n. She's just won't go any lower.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:34
TYoung (Hmmmmmm) ID#317193: - Is this correct...volume on Central Fund Canada in the US today...zero. Strange goings on....strange.
Tom - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:27
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274: - Covered and long 17 7/8
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:26
tolerant1 (Whew, is the media flat out trying to keep Clintler in office or what...it is truly amazing) ID#20359: - to me that the media is still referred to as the FREE PRESS.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:24
TYoung (Gollum....) ID#317193: - But the sky is falling, the sky is falling....I'm scared to buy gold/silver and gold mining shares with gold ine the high $285 area.
Couldn't you get it to $285.....BIG SMILE....WINK.
I'll move a little more. I seem to have gotten close to investment rather than position already. You just have to love the game that's afoot.
Tom - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:23
Gollum (Actually this may be the best day of all) ID#424140: - Today one can jump in at the lows, and sell out in only a couple of weeks at a handsome profit, but not have to pay any taxes on the gain untill the year 2000.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:22
NTEOTWAWKI (Dow screaming past 8900) ID#389387:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Deflation proof Equities.
Gold banged down to the bottom of the channel.
Silver banged down.
Platinum down.
Oil reaching below $10 again.
Just got some Liberty 1oz. silver today from a major distributor.
Asked for recent mint date ( 1998 ) . Sorry were all out.
Asked for ( 1997 ) . Sorry were all out.
Saw where this was going. OK what DO you have? 1994.
Now stand up and recite the goldbug pledge with me. C'mon. Hold hands.
In complete defiance of logic I will buy and keep more of these beauties and not enter the Internet bubble. I will repeat the mantra of the 401Kers I am in it for the long haul. I will continue to indulge in the precious. I refuse to acknowledge and participate in the Lewis Carroll universe thrust upon me. I trust the good book implicitly. Replete with lessons of the past.
Eyes open now. quote.com screaming 8907.49. Arrrrggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:19
Gollum (Monday comes the rebound...) ID#424140: -
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:17
2BR02B? (TWO crises, one just isn't enough anymore) ID#266105: -
Robert Mundell on gold standard--
http://www.polyconomics.com/ - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:15
Isure (Gold) ID#421269: -
I have to ask myself, with impeachment and war in the wings why is gold going down. The only answer I can believe, is that as pressures increase fora rise in gold prices all stops are being pulled to keep it down. I only hope that I can live long enough to see these shorters suffer the pain I have felt over the last year.
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/murphy121698.html
Remove the en from gold - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:13
Gollum (Not much longer) ID#424140: - Just another five or ten minutes.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:10
CC (FSR) ID#334219: - Growing production and profitability. Something extremely rare these days in the silver mining business.
http://www.firstsilver.com/production.html - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:10
SDRer (Someone asked What is Herstatt? ) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 2.2.1 The failure of Bankhaus Herstatt ( 1974 )
On 26th June 1974 the Bundesaufsichtsamt für das Kreditwesen withdrew the banking licence of Bankhaus Herstatt, a small bank in Cologne active in the FX market, and ordered it into liquidation during the banking day but after the close of the interbank payments system in Germany. Prior to the announcement of Herstatt's closure, several of its counterparties had,
through their branches or correspondents, irrevocably paid Deutsche Mark to Herstatt on that day through the German payments system against anticipated receipts of US dollars later the same day in New York in respect of maturing spot and forward transactions.
Upon the termination of Herstatt's business at 10.30 a.m. New York time on 26th June ( 3.30 p.m. in Frankfurt ) , Herstatt's New York correspondent bank suspended outgoing US dollar payments from Herstatt's account. This action left Herstatt's counterparty banks exposed for the full value of the Deutsche Mark deliveries made ( credit risk and liquidity risk ) . Moreover, banks which had entered into forward trades with Herstatt not yet due for settlement lost money in replacing the contracts in the market ( replacement risk ) , and others had deposits with Herstatt ( traditional counterparty credit risk ) .
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:08
APH (Trading) ID#255226: - Reversed and went short March Silver at 4.97 stop 5.01. 4.40 silver still possible? maybe 4.85-4.80 more likely.
Sherman McCellan interviewed this morning looks for a near vertical rise in the stock mkt after xmas - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 14:06
TechTrader (Just Heard) ID#372180: - Operation Desert Fox has been renamed to...
Operation Free Willy - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:59
Gollum (@TYoung) ID#424140: - Now!! Get everything you can, man. I can't hold these prices down much longer. This is probably one of the best trading days of the year, except for a few back around the end of August or so.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:57
JTF (Y2k and Health Care) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Allen ( USA ) : The way I see it, the real problem is not the medical instrumentation, or the operations of the hospitals themselves, but reimbursenment. Medicare is changing their methods already, and if it is like the rest of the Federal Government, they will do a lousy job of it, and a lousy job of telling the health care providers how to adapt to the changes. It is very clear to me that the weakest links in the chain wrt to y2k are State and Federal agencies.
With regard to utilitites and y2k, I was amazed to learn that our local electrical cooperative is y2k compliant. But -- the riskiest place in North America will be the NorthEast Corridor, since so much of the power comes from Niagara Falls. Just imagine how much trouble the US and Canada will have working out y2k compliance between systems that are not designed exactly the same. Also -- according to one of the National Electric Spokesites on the WEB -- the Niagrara Falls is one of the few areas that is really hardwired, with little protection from failure. Apparently most other regions of the US ( outside the Northeast Corridor ) have distributed power grids so that a failure does not bring everything down at once.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:53
Cyclist (Theme Investor ) ID#339274: - #1 No ,#2 No ,#3 depending.: )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:44
JTF (Is Buddy tired of having his tail wagged?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - LGB: I think the Hillary barometer is the best indicator of WJC's troubles. She is/was the driving force behind him -- and only when she thought he could advance her career. She will drop him in a minute if she thinks he is no longer capable of boosting her.
I wonder if she is worried about those sealed criminal indictments -- to be opened after WJC steps down.
By the way, any idea what would happen if the Senate actually got a 2/3 majority, and tried to eject WJC from the White House? I'll bet that there is no protocol for that. Who does the ejection if it comes to that? Janet Reno? What do they do if WJC declares a national emergency and calls up the reserves?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:35
LGB (Indications Clinton Marriage is in trouble) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - * Hillary less affectionate and not her usual cold and distant self
* Dog Buddy filing a court motion to have his wishes considered in any potential custody battle
* Rumors Hillary has taken up with her old flame Martina Navratilova
* Bill taking a correspondence course on fending off open hand blows for upcming Bill / Hillary Jerry Springer show
* Chelsea CLinton filing orphan status
* Bill seen sleeping on White House lawn
* Hillary paying high consultation fee's to Lorena Bobbitt
* Bill considering taking a second shot at Paula Jones Now that she's had that nose job and her big Schnozz wouldn't get in the way..
* Marriage counseling session with Dr. Laura Schlessinger fails within a few seconds when Dr. Laura immediately recommends Impeachment therapy
* Rumors surfacing that Great Britains Tony Blair has offered to be Bill's new bitch
* Odd items showing up on White House budget procurement...23, steel re-inforced rolling pins
( Note, 2 of above stolen from David Letterman show, the rest are originals... ) - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:35
Chrisophilos (A Goldbug's Dream) ID#277302: - The seven lean cows
Have appeared on America's
Western horizon
To devour the seven fat
And over-exuberant ones
The swarms of locusts
Quietly hatching in the
Rain-soaked desert sands
Will soon take flight
And descend upon
The parched fields
To devour all
That has taken seed
Arable lands will turn to dust
And deserts will bloom
History is ever-repeating
Time is a Great Equalizer
The ones who are prepared
Will survive. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:29
Theme Investor (Cyclist) ID#372400: - Do you post on a daytrading board ?
Are these 2 stocks all you trade ?
What....10 to 20 trades/ week ? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:25
JTF (The EURO launch) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - SDRer: Any more thoughts about how Jan 1, 1999 will unfold? I hear stories about nervousness in Germany about going to the Euro, and fears of diluting the German mark. A European Dollar/gold buying frenzy coming up? Also I don't have a clear idea how the pro-Euro crowd will try to phase out the US dollar as the World's premier currency. What ever the game is, the Europeans don't want to weaken the US dollar too quickly, as then we will not be able to buy their goods. Also, at the same time they will be devaluing their currency ( like us in the US ) to avoid financial collapse. The battle between the EURO and the US dollar will be set with competitive devaluations in the background. Not the ideal situation for the launch of a strong currency, but certainly not inflationary.
My intuitive guess is that the Europeans will want to replace the US dollar with the EURO as their primary reserve currency -- over the next few years. They will try to convert most of their trade and debt into EUROs, rather than in dollar denominations. Even better if they can keep the US dollar strong while they strengthen the financial position of the EURO.
Another interesting thing I find about the EURO launch is that it offers a convenient time to roll over bad debt to expendible locations/countries ( ? ) . The EURO launch is a perfect opportunity to do alot of creative debt restructuring. I wouldn't be surprised to see that a number of sacrificial corporations with large debts default immediatly after the EURO launch, so that much of the debt incurred during the Oct 97 crash or in Russia can be written off or rolled over. One thing that puzzles me is why a number of German corporations are buying out US ones. That suggests German strength, and US weakness.
Any idea how long the honeymoon with the EURO will last? My guess is that a possible move to a gold-backed currency will be delayed until well after the deflationary phase has ended. Probably well after y2k.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:13
Cyclist (NEM&HAL for Theme Investor ) ID#339274: - I trade them daily.I use technicals,Size of trades,volume,
sometimes gut-feeling,and continually exploring new techniques.
5,10,and 30minutes chart.To set up strategy I use hourly,
daily and weekly with cyclical and seasonal influences.
Weekly cyclical and seasonal positive unless 64.8 breaks.
Negative daily until Tuesday morning.
Here you are.. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:10
Cage Rattler (LGB - Forex markets very thin) ID#33184: - Most European big names close off books today for year-end
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:00
longj (rhodium prices, what's up?) ID#30345: - Anyone got the Information as to what was behind the price jumps of late?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 13:00
Allen(USA) (Y2K-ness) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Just a little sketch to bring you into the REAL world of what is being ( or not being ) done in terms of remediation.
Company 'A', a health care provider.
Large regional healthcare provider has core system used in patient care. It is connected to 15 or so other systems within the organization which drive operations which support the provision of care. Six of the inter-system connections are considered fatal if failure occures. Another 6 connections are considered critical to operations but will not directly cause the failure of patient care.
At the end of spring and the beginning of summer 1998 all enterprise systems had been inventoried and assessed for issues of organizational importance ( prioritized ) . Plan for the core care system is to be tested with a battery of tests to determine a baseline of failures as they relate to dates .. in February 1999.
It needs to be emphasized that this is BEFORE any remediation efforts are begun. These testing results will be compared to data generated AFTER the repair processes is completed ( ?how long will that take, it must be done by hand ) to determine if the repairs worked. In other words, no actual repair work will begin until sometime after February 1999. Testing of repairs ( and repair of incorrect repairs/new errors ) will require at least half of the time ( time 5 months minimum if you assume that the repair and test takes exactly 10 months and no more ) . FTO ( figure the odds ) .
The core system has over half a million 'paths' which contain business rules and conditionals used to flesh out the system ( application level coding ) . The remediation will be done by a third party vendor. Each path link and its associated rules/parameters must be examined and corrected if applicable. If it only takes 5 months to do the intitial repair work then 100,000 paths per month or 3,300 paths per day or 138 paths per hour in 24 hours per day will need to be examined and corrected. FTO.
Systems changes orders have NOT been frozen yet.
~~~~~
It hasn't been until the past month or so that I have heard about companies running their 'Y2K' projects simply as 'showbusiness' for future courtroom defence against 'due diligence' lawsuits. If over half of small and medium sized businesses are willing to publicly express their plan to NOT TEST CHANGED CODE before slamming it into production .. what chances do YOU think we have here? ( de Jager has said that anyone who suggests this could be done successfully is an idiot )
The above example is real. Those involved have their noses firmly planted in a very narrow focus in which they can not imagine their beloved system's failure. Can't see the forest for the trees. No contingency plans are being developed to address the failure of this system or its parts. This organization will cease to function in 2000.
Multiply this by thousands of cities, counties, states, institutions, services, companies, corporations, militaries, buearacracies, etc. It will .. ALL FAIL IN ONE VERY NARROW TIME FRAME.
~~~~~
You have 8 more business days to prepare for yourself before significant systems failures begin to sharply focus and energize those you will have to compete with for everything you will want. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:57
LGB (Dollar transfixed by WHO again? ) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I thought traders realised this Bill C guy was irrelevant to any and all markets? That all these things are handled in back rooms....
Friday December 18, 12:22 pm Eastern Time
FX IN EUROPE -Dollar transfixed by Clinton, eyes
Iraq
LONDON, Dec 18 ( Reuters ) - Dollar activity dwindled in late European trade on Friday, but bearish sentiment dominated as the market braced for the U.S. House of Representatives debate on whether to impeach President Bill Clinton.
Traders were also set to prick up their ears at any news on Iraq, where air strikes by the United States and Britain were to continue for the third straight day. But for now, this was taking second place to developments in Washington.
``There's really nothing much you can do to the dollar at the moment, not until we hear what the House has to say about the impeachment issue. And that could take some time,'' said one trader at a Japanese bank in London.
The dollar was quoted at 115.30/40 yen at 1530 GMT after recovering from a six-week low of 114.55 reached earlier in the session as the market fretted about the impeachment debate.
``The moves in the market have been driven by very small trades today, so I wouldn't get too excited about it. People are just waiting for the impeachment debate,'' said Tim Fox, chief economist at Standard Chartered.
The dollar enjoyed a small boost against both the mark and yen in late European trade on news Iraqi president Saddam Hussein would make ``an important speech'' to the nation's people.
The gains were sustained when Saddam said in a taped television address that Iraq would not back down in the face of the air strikes.
``Financial markets have realised that this crisis is having only a minimal impact on the oil market supply, and they have become immune to Gulf issues,'' said Fox.
Apart from the Iraq crisis and Clinton's impeachment process, factors next week will include the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's regular policy-making meeting on Tuesday.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:52
Theme Investor (Cyclist......NEM Trades) ID#372400: - I've been noticing your trade postings for short moves/profits
for some time. Do you basically daytrade this one stock ?
Do you use timing indicators such as the 5 min chart of IQC, and indicators, etc., or do you just do it by feel, or when you get a quick profit ? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:52
Nicodemus (Hello Cage Rateler. It seems that both of the Klintons don't understand that people are) ID#388404:
Copyright © 1998 Nicodemus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - no longer taking things said from the top as information or truth, but are now suspiscious of being manipulated and suspiscious of hypocrisy.
Reconciliation? She least of all should even utter this holy word.
I do not believe a single word spoken by the first, well, Mrs. Klinton.
Ever since her Nationalised medicine debacle where she showed her true Major Controler, personality, I have wanted her and her hubby to LEAVE.
Just who do these people think they are anyway? Only in America can people come this far with such miserable beginnings. : )
Nicodemus,
What is truth? Pilate 0033
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:44
TYoung (SDRer...and my thanks also.....) ID#317193: - We should soon see if all this is a coincidence or concerted action...yes, you and I see a plan. Mayhaps the plan blows up...waiting....watching.
Tom - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:39
Cyclist (speech for itself) ID#339274:
Copyright © 1998 Cyclist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Confession Speech....
Members of Congress...people of America....I banged her. I banged her
like a cheap gong. Which is not news, folks, because if you think Monica
Lewinsky was the only skin flute player in my orchestra, you haven't
been paying attention. The only babes in D.C. I haven't tried to do are
the First Lady, Reno, Albright, and Shalala, mostly because they're a
little older than I like and they have legs that former Houston Oiler
Earl Campbell would envy.
Which isn't to say I don't appreciate Hillary...I do. If not for the ice
water coursing through her veins, I'd be pumping gas into farm equipment
in Hope, Arkansas, and she'd be married to the President.
So, let me set the record straight. I dodged the draft, hid FBI files,
smoked dope, flipped Whitewater property, set up a new Chinese wing in
the White House, fired the travel staff, paid hush money to Hubbell,
sold the Lincoln bedroom like an upscale Motel 6, and grabbed every ass
that entered the Oval Office.
Got it?
Good.
Six years ago, there's not a man, woman, or child who didn't know I was
as horny as Woody Allen. But, you elected me anyway, which turned out
to be a good move on your part. Your other choice was Bush, an aging
Nazi and part-time resident of some place called Kennebunkport who
thought he could bomb his way into the White House.
Before him, it was Reagan, who left the office with the same Alzheimer's
he came in with.
There was Carter before him who brought you a 17% prime interest rate,
smiling the whole time like his lithium drip had just kicked in.
Nixon before that coined, but never really understood, the concept of
'plausible deniability,' and almost got a one-way ticket to San Clemente
for his crackerjack style of governing.
Johnson was an inbred, power-mad war criminal whose major contribution
to American society was Agent Orange.
And John Kennedy, who was a little naughty himself, didn't hang around
long enough for America to spot that curious atavistic tic for
beaver-wrestling shared by at least a dozen former residents of the
White House.
Which brings me back to my point. Since I have been strumming the banjo
here at the White House, government is doing more for less. The budget
is balanced for the first time since JFK did a one gun salute to
Marilyn, a fact the press didn't seem to care about, evidently.
Unemployment is so low today a blind felon can get a job as a
night-watchman. And the stock market is higher than a D-student on a
full gram of coke, and anyone with a degree from a junior college who
can spell 'internet' has enough money to ponder the annual maintenance
cost of his boat, instead of where his or her next meal is coming from.
Bottom line: I'm running a country here and I'm doing it with my pecker
showing. What I'm asking for is your support, not a date with your
daughter... unless, of course, she's a hotty with thin ankles, and then
I'd like to discuss it.
In the meantime, think about where you are today and what kind of life
you're living before you get too interested in where I'm parking the
Presidential limo.
The eagle may soar, but the weasel never gets sucked into a jet engine.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:39
Selby (Bill'n Al) ID#286230: - If Gore ends up siting in the White House in the next couple of months---how would he be any different?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:37
LGB (Gold & Platinum gettin slammed) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - And here are 2 reasons why...
Crude slips amid bearish sentiment
Also: Russian sales drive palladium lower
By Cecily Fraser, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:53 AM ET Dec 18, 1998
Agriculture Outlook
NEW YORK ( CBS.MW ) -- After being knocked down with a serious punch in
the previous session, crude oil futures were attempting to get off the floor
Friday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February
crude oil fell 15 cents to $11.22 a barrel, after
dropping 11 percent Thursday.
News that Venezuela, Mexico and Saudi Arabia were
unable to offer salvation to the depressed market sent
crude oil prices plummeting. The oil ministers met in
Madrid, Spain to discuss the recent 12-year lows
prices have reached.
The outcome of the meeting, coupled with word that
Iraqi oil facilities hadn't sustained any damage cast a
bearish shadow over the market. Even as military
action against Iraq increased, the energy sector simply
shrugged off the events after the U.N. confirmed Iraq
was still shipping out oil as missile and bomb attacks
were underway.
It was reported Thursday that Saudi Arabia will
consult with OPEC colleagues while Mexico and
Venezuela will initiate talks with oil producers in their
region in attempts to boost the struggling sector. This may help the market to
edge up from Thursday's steep decline. See full story.
Palladium falls with Russian sales.
March palladium posted steep loses as the contract came under pressure from
Russian sales. Russia is the No. 1 producer of palladium, and reportedly sold
off between one and three tons of the metal. During the past week, the market
had been boosted by supply jitters after a Russian producer warned of export
delays in the first quarter. On the Commodities Exchange division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange, March palladium fell $15.90 to $311 an ounce. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:32
Nicodemus (Hello Alberich: ECU) ID#388404: - I have had similar concerns about the ECU.
It seems to me that the prices of goods and services might also be adjusted upward in a country where they feel devalued by the Euro....
So they don't have to print currency or play currency games, just price/value games. Sure makes one long for the gold standard...
Nicodemus
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:29
SDRer () ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Latest London Bullion Fixings
Gold AM Fixing ( 18 Dec 1998 ) : 173.997 Pounds Sterling
Gold AM Fixing ( 18 Dec 1998 ) : 292.350 US Dollars
Gold PM Fixing ( 18 Dec 1998 ) : 173.283 Pounds Sterling
Gold PM Fixing ( 18 Dec 1998 ) : 291.600 US Dollars
Silver Fixing ( 18 Dec 1998 ) : 2.9349 Pounds Sterling
Silver Fixing ( 18 Dec 1998 ) : 4.9350 US Dollars
---------------------------------------
Allen@USA.and.I.Thank.you.4.yours {:- )
Alberich@limitations.4.11 Oh indeed! They nailed that down very firmly! {:- ) )
Auric@BIS.all.powerful Never use universals...{:- ) ) ) - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:24
LGB (Bill C's New advisors) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Dear Bill:
I can sympathize with your predicament. Although when I was president I merely lusted in my heart, I have to admit that had I served another term, my lust might have broken free and moved down my body. Good luck, in this time of trial.
Jimmy Carter
Dear Bill:
OK, so I'll never be president, but at least Donna Rice was a babe!
( Monica Shmonica! )
Gary Hart
My Dear Chap:
This is a bit of a sticky wicket, but if I were you, I should ask that
charming Jay Leno fellow to see you through. Pop onto his show, admit
that you made an ass of yourself and all will be forgiven.
Bill:
They entrapped me, they framed me, they caught me in a motel with drugs
and a prostitute, but I bounced back and so can you! Bitch done set us up!
Mayor Marion Berry
Dear Bill:
Look at the bright side. At least you weren't caught wearing Monica's
thong underwear. By the way, did you catch my sports show? I'm back on
TV for the fall.
Marv Albert
Dear Bill:
Hang in there, pal! By the way, Kathie Lee sends Hillary her regards
and invites her to come on her show anytime.
Frank Gifford
Dear Mr. President:
Now I'm on the Supreme Court. I'm here for life! And there's nothing
anyone can do about it! So there!
Justice Clarence ( Long Dong ) Thomas
Dear Mr. President:
If you need to get away from it all, you're welcome to bring Buddy
and stay with me on my Wonderland Ranch for as long as you want. I'll move the Cub Scout Pack to a tent on the lawn and you can have their room.
Michael Jackson
Dear Bill:
Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.
Jim Bakker
P.S. Jessica sends regards and wants to get together with you sometime.
Dear Bill:
If I survived wanting to be a Camilla tampon, you can survive the cigar bit. Things were grim for a while, but now it looks like I might actually manage to marry my darling Camilla, and someday I'll be King!
Funny how life turns out. So keep a stiff upper lip ( or something ) ! And they say I don't have a sense of humor ) Ears to ya!
HRH Charles Windsor, Prince of Wales
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:23
panda (Gollum) ID#50148:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Technically, settlement is tomorrow, Saturday. The positions are closed by most on Friday though. As for the impeachment, apparently it is a fore gone conclusion. The will apparently vote impeachment on at least one article. Thus, Clinton will have been impeached. Trial in the Senate.
Without a doubt, these are strange times! Iraq under shell fire, a major Iraqi port is supposedly damaged, unrest in Palastine, China being vocal about Iraq, Russia recalls ambassador to the U.S., sitting President under impeachment, and the only things that are up, are OJ, bacon, steak, and oil is flat to down! Go figure!
Stocks really churning today under the triple witch. The close might be interesting as the House of Reps. wants to vote tomorrow, Saturday, on impeachment. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:13
Cage Rattler (Who said: If history books were the key to riches,) ID#33184: - the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:11
Gollum (Someone seems to have locked the levers in place) ID#424140: - I suspect it's those option traders in order to expire as many as possible worthlessly.
It's really hard to get things moving again once everything is stopped dead in it's tracks.
What time IS expiry, anyway? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:09
Rumpled (test) ID#411251: -
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:07
LGB (Anti POG / War pattern continues) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Started yesterday, more of the same today. GoldBugs, you think the foibles of sleazeball Bill C. will drive POG up? Think again....
Date: Thu Dec 17 1998 12:08
LGB ( War...Bad for Gold ) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bill C.'s war, has been bad for POG. I have noticed a phenomenon over the past decade and a half. Whether it's Argentina, Panama, the Gulf war, Bosnia, Somalia, or our several other skirmishes with Iraq.
The day and hour that someone starts firing weapons, Gold and the dollar both rise. Then there follows a Backlash effect as investor disappointment sets in over lack of follow through to panic buying. And
Gold settles lower than where it began.
It's been a consistent pattern. I hesitate to even mention market movements related to these things...It seems unseemly...as it makes me NAUSEOUS that the serious business of violence and killing is now
strictly a political tool in the hands of a dangerous, cornered, soulless rat.....
but it is a pattern nonetheless. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:01
BigFisherman (I love the smell of liberty in the morning) ID#258273: - Ah, the view of the mountains over the Sound is spectacular this morning. Just back from handing out Christmas presents to all my sons teachers. Home baked bread and apple butter. ( Thank you to the Kitcoite that gave me the link to Lehman's. )
Christmas is a time to get together with friends and family and show in little ways the path to liberty.
We will win out country back. Bit by bit. Battle by Battle. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 12:00
Allen(USA) (SDRer) ID#246224: - Thank you for your intelligence.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:59
ALBERICH (@SDRer: Euro- Question to You) ID#212197:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - When from the 1st of January 1999 on all 11 currencies which participate, are frozen in the exchange rate relative to the Euro, that must mean that also the volume of each frozen currency and therefore the creation of new money in each currency has to be frozen, respectively strictly exercised by the ECB. Is that right?
Or else one of the members could start doubling the volume of money in circulation and through this expansion of money supply devalue the individual currency but still enjoying the frozen exchange rate relative to the Euro. That would mean: creating limitless funny money. Do you know if this method of betraying the community is explicitely prohibited? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:56
Cage Rattler (Mrs. Clinton: ``Bring our country together'' ) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - WASHINGTON ( AP ) - The Capitol Dome framing her from a distance, first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton exhorted the nation ``to practice reconciliation'' today.
``We ought to bring our country together. We ought to end divisiveness because we can do so much more together,'' Mrs. Clinton said.
The first lady spoke to reporters clustered on the White House driveway just as the House debate on impeaching President Clinton was gaveled open on the opposite end of Pennsylvania Avenue.
There to promote the Mothers Against Drunk Driving ``red ribbon'' campaign, Mrs. Clinton looped trails of red ribbon to the antenna of a Ford Explorer and then readily addressed a question about the impeachment debate.
With a small, jeweled Christmas tree pinned to her jacket - and with words delivered in a measured, practiced manner - Mrs. Clinton began: ``Well, I think the vast majority of Americans share my approval and pride in the job that the president's been doing for our country.''
She noted the confluence of Hanukkah, Christmas and Ramadan, and said, ``At the time for reflection and reconciliation among people, we in our country ought to practice reconciliation. ... I would hope that we as a nation would turn our attention to what we can do together, what we can do positively, how we can build each other up.''
Before turning to leave with the Clinton family cat, Socks, for a holiday program at Children's National Medical Center, Mrs. Clinton concluded, ``So I hope that this holiday season is a very happy and blessed one for everyone. Thank you all very much.''
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:55
Allen(USA) (Aldebaran .. it is my opinion that) ID#246224: - a sane man is most at disadvantage in an insane world. Best to find a high and dry spot from which to watch the conflagration. Then go to pick up significant pieces afterwards.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:52
Gollum (One or two leaves tremble with just the slightest puff of air) ID#424140: - 11:35 DOLLAR LOSES 0.6% TO 115.590 YEN.
11:33 CRB INDEX GAINS 0.2% TO 191.26. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:39
Cyclist (short NEM) ID#339274: - 18 3/8
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:37
Gollum (I'm back.) ID#424140: - Gee, when I said for you guys to keep things quiet, I didn't mean THAT quiet.
Time to move some levers.
With the winter sun above, the new moon below, and earth in the middle the eastern seaboard is fast approaching syzygy. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:32
FOX-MAN (glenn; I'm still new with options so I may be wrong or thinking wrong, but is) ID#288186: - possible that these professional options traders are selling/writing
these Dec '99 Gold calls at, say, 350.00, then waiting for the premium
to go down several tics, and then buying a Dec '99 Gold call at a lower
strike price, thus locking in a profit? ///Whew! That's a long sentence!
Hope it makes sense! - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:23
SDRer (Jimms--re: bond redenomination) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...problem [the European governments have the treaty right to redenominate their debt as of 1 January 1999.
1.Under the logic of the *Gold Clause Cases, however, the provisions of the EU Council regulation on bond redenomination may be regarded as permitting an alteration of contractual terms that is closely
related to the introduction of the euro. The provisions on bond redenomination may therefore be regarded as having been enacted pursuant to the monetary sovereignty of the European Union over EU national
currencies. On this broader view of the State theory, issuers of bonds governed by New York law may rely on the EU Council regulation to redenominate outstanding bonds denominated in EU national currencies. [This regards PRIVATE institutions redenominate their bonds, which they are free to do as SOON AS their government redenominates]
2.In view of the decision of the Supreme Court in Bethleham and the decision of the New York Court of Appeals in Campania de Inversiones, it appears that American courts have taken a broader view of the monetary sovereignty of a country over its currency. Niall Lenihan, Legal Implications of the Euro, report commissioned by the EMI/ECBS
and why some folk are getting 'nervous'[and perhaps why the specs are at it again--see rhodium]
9. A Council Regulation entering into force on 1 January 1999 will provide the legal framework for the use of the euro. From that date, the euro will be 'a currency in its own right' and the official ecu basket will cease to exist. This Regulation will have the effect that the national currencies and the euro will become different expressions of what is economically the same currency. As long as different national monetary units still exist, the Council Regulation will establish a legally enforceable equivalence between the euro and the national currency units ( 'legally enforceable equivalence' means that each monetary amount is assigned, in a legally enforceable way, an unchangeable countervalue in terms of the euro unit...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:14
Cyclist (sold) ID#339274: - NEM 18 3/8
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:07
glenn (Re:Aurator - Dec 18, 04:19) ID#376309: - It is not possible to know who is buying the dec99 390 calls. An intelligent guess is that it is many, many different traders, not just one group. Who is selling them is the traders in the options pit. Not because they do not believe in it but rather they give bids and asks on all options at all time and try to manage there possition the best they can. You may think that is stupit but that is how they make a living. Also remember that $400 calls had a huge following when gold was $380-$400 for over 2 years and nothing ever became of them.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:03
Cyclist (NEM) ID#339274: - Long 18 1/8.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 11:02
Selby (St Helena Home page) ID#286230: - http://www.sthelena.co.za/
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:48
Cage Rattler (Mexico says further oil cuts discussed but dropped ) ID#33182: - http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101j.htm
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:47
cherokee (@...cusp-city........) ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved -
tantalus..
chaos and flux are in the drivers seat of the peopleo-mobile...
consider.....
'for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction'
sir isaac newton
what does this say for what the west has done to the rest of
the world? forcing our policies upon the entire world...if not
accepted, then through intermediaries that rape them again.
what does this say for the pog? the pressure applied has yet
to be released...
external pressure........sir isaac has dealt with this absolutely..
equal and opposite.......dare i say, that the us is going to have
the policies of the rest of the world imposed upon her?
dare i say, pog is going to the moon?
these things will come to pass........physics dictates cyclical
events.....war, and gold to the moon.........soon.
the us stands naked upon the shores of right and wrong...there
blows a gale from the east....the black waves thundering at
her feet....wind swept hair pelting the ocular devices....
the salt spray a bitter taste of the truth......
standing alone.....defrocked by the commander-in-chief at
the yellow house, and by the apathetic ones at the polls....
he was elected by a group non-represenative of the true
ba!!s of this country......what a price to pay...to lose
freedom....just simply by not practicing freedom......
BY VOTING! sh!t....what a legacy.
watching the fag barney frank......who ran male prostitutes from his
dc townhome......slobber on himself........i'm greatly sickened...
time to rev-up the ssm......will be squirting every-where...heading to the hills of the central us till this plays itself out...
this is a VERY dangerous time.......act accordingly.
!;...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:38
AUwolf (South Korea Sinks North Korean Vessel ) ID#254130:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - South Korea Sinks North Korean
Vessel After Shoot-Out ( Reuters )
South Korean naval forces sank a North Korean
submersible vessel in a predawn firefight Friday
after which the body of an armed North Korean
frogman was found, the Defense Ministry said.
- Dec 18 12:55 AM EST
Korea-North-Submarine Seoul ( Reuters )
The miniature submarine was first found in waters
off the southern port city of Yosu and was chased
east towards Koje Island, located near Pusan
about 70 km ( 45 miles ) from Yosu, the official said.
Local media reports said the vessel was sunk
about 100 km south of Koje Island, but the defence
ministry spokesman could not confirm the vessel
had been sunk.
- Dec 17 6:51 PM EST - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:33
Cage Rattler (Arab states condemn strikes on Iraq - (instant forex reaction)) ID#33182: - http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101f.htm
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:30
Selby (tantalus) ID#286230: -
I think only the EU launch is of any significance. The Y2K and the US Bubble are not believed or close enough in time to have the markets pay much attention to them. Clinton is of no lasting significance to the rest of the world except maybe Iraq and I doubt those starving folks count for much at the moment. So I'd forget about most of your list. While important on paper they are a long way from effecting anything. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:29
EJ (As T1 would say, Hmmmmmm) ID#45173: - U.S. Q3 Derivatives Volume At Banks Up 16 Pct To Record $32.6 Trln-Comptroller
and
U.S. Q3 bank trading revenues down sharply-OCC
WASHINGTON, Dec 18 ( Reuters ) - Trading revenues at U.S. banks fell
sharply to $614 million in the third quarter from $2.6 billion in the
previous quarter, reflecting unsettled environments in Asia and Eastern
Europe, a government regulator said on Friday. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:27
rhody (SWISS GOLD SALES: elevated one month lease rates, and more news) ID#408236: - about central bank gold sales are all signs of the continued
anti-gold campaign. Gold just sits there in the face of a middle
east war, and financial turmoil world wide. CAN WE NOT SEE
THE MANIPULATION!!!!!!? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:25
Cage Rattler (Saddam Hussein about to address Iraq on TV) ID#33182: -
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:20
Who Cares? (TANTALUS Worries About Future) ID#242214: - {long list of incredibly bad things happening... )
Yeah, but it's a dry heat. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:08
tolerant1 (Let's face it and say that RSA mining stocks will explode when gold makes its inevitable) ID#20359: - move upwards in US dollar terms...and in my albeit brief time on planet Earth...the RSA stocks suffer from nothing in actual reality but they are continually discussed in a form of financial bigotry as politics and safety of investment are constantly thrown in the face of investors...
Such is not the case...RSA mining stocks are a safe investment and believing otherwise simply means the investor who does not purchase RSA mining shares will miss out on their meteoric gains as the price of gold spikes upwards... - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:05
Tantalus (Am having some difficulty putting these thoughts into words,) ID#370236:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Russian Strategic Nukes on High Alert,
Bombs over Iraq,
US President being impeached,
Y2K problems unfolding,
Economies world-wide have tanked, causing
many others to follow suit,
EU launch in less than two weeks,
LTCM scandal gives just a peek,
Sudden Fed rate cuts,
Negative interest rate in Japan,
US stock market bubble about to burst.
These confluent malignant time lines are becoming overwhelming.
Frightening, yet wondrous, to be witness to History at this point
in time.
This crazy Kitco is sanest place to watch all of this.
I'm lucky to be here.
Twas the Gold that led me here. Regards to all. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:05
Mooney* (@Crystal Ball) ID#348169:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Crystal Ball's stock pick sure seems the best 'conservative PM investment' I've seen mentioned around here lately. If they have even 5 years of current reserves it seems an excellent buy.
Ad for Gold itself, checking the charts from the last few days it seems that the best day trading strategy would be to buy close to $291 ( spot ) and sell, ( your long position ) , close to $294.
AND, YES, it had been very slow around here for the last few days and I'm sure that is why we have so few posts as people are experiencing difficulty getting in, and also why some people have made the mistake of posting their message five or six times in a row. ( Most annoying. ) Have they stopped the bombs yet? I think three days is about enough for even the thickest of skulls to get the message. 'Told you so - WE do have a big stick and we will use it anytime we feel like it, so you had better play by our rules.'
Has anyone told the pentagon that it just may be hard to get the Palestinians and other Arab countries to believe in the peace process if bombing is all they see on their T.V. screens?
Looks like a sad way to celebrate Christmas and the other religious holidays around the world this year.
Soon we'll end up with a repeat of the sixties and Country Joe and The Fish will have to tour again! - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 10:00
SEQUIN (GOLD LEASING : IS IT LEGAL?) ID#25171:
Copyright © 1998 SEQUIN/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The question is interesting and it seems to me that the problem is not so simple:
Does a GOLD leasing operation qualify as a REPO or a lending ?
If it is a lending operation it is legal.
If it is a REPO operation , you could argue that it is a sale with a binding agreement between the 2 counterparts to unwind the sale at a price in the future which takes into account the carry over the length of the operation . Example : I buy 100 million ounces today for 300 M$ and sell it back to you in one year for 295.5 M$. Thus , I pay a 1.5% interest on my REPO.
If such REPO operations occur between bullion banks and hedge funds or mines , it is legal . Only if these operations occur, say, between the FED and a bullion bank , could it be illegal .
Only an act of congress can indeed authorize the FED to sell its GOLD.
However , every time there has been legal action about REPO , courts have considered that REPO operations were similar to lending as there was an agreement between the 2 counterparts to unwind the operation.
The most famous example was in the early 90s when a german bank which had REPOed billions of bunds to different counterparts refused to buy them back and decided to keep the money because the value of the bund had drastically plunged due to german reunification. Then , the court ordered them to buy them back and they lost serious money. Moreover , nobody traded ever again REPO with them until 3 years later when the management was fired.
BUY PHYSICAL GOLD. BUY NEM - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:56
John Disney (no big deal ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - for Nick ..
Surprised you still taken in by NA propaganda on
hi cost RSA mines .. Costs have been dropping
steaduly in RAND terms ..
Anglogold .. ( produces about 7 mill oz per year
before the recent Minorco purchase ) had cash costs
of about 210 $/oz in the third quarter and 237 $
TOTAL costs .. with RSA mines Total costs are about
1.15 times cash costs .. reason being .. exploration,
admin, and capital related costs are very low.
GoldFields costs are a bit higher but the bulk
of their total cost would be below 250.
Harmony is higher and would have to cut capex
if gold went to 250 for a long time ..
RSA reserves are pegged to a 50,000 rand per KG
gpld price .. at 6 rand to the $ that about $260/oz. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:47
trader_vic (Gold Movement) ID#372228: - Does anybody else find this suspect...obviously manipulated...but..everytime the price of gold spikes up, the next day someone comes in and slams it down almost the exact amount and then just leaves it there...normally if a bear is after a market, they continue with follow-thru and push it beyond the technical supports...but not gold, it could just sit there and as long as it doesn't get above $297/oz. there is no real action....very suspicious isn't it...don't they call that price fixing And isn't that illegal? Hard to prove when the Gov't is the one doing it isn't it...
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:40
TYoung (Tort....) ID#317193: - I checked my own portfolio....35-40% in physical gold/silver and gold mining. Must be easy to give advice...hard to follow........more in physical than anything. Envy is right...never take investment advice from.....me.
Tom - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:27
ALBERICH (The CRB Index was going south again yesterday;) ID#212197: - oil has lost at least 10% in recent weeks.
Gold kept trading in narrow, constant range between $292 and $297.
If gold would go hand in hand with oil it's price would be at around $265 right now. If gold continues to resist the downtrend in common commodities we can become very optimistic about the future role of gold in the financial markets and about the price of gold relative to paper currencies.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:21
Aldebaran (I can't believe it! ) ID#256365:
Copyright © 1998 Aldebaran/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I am looking at Feb Gold on comex. It just sits there, theres some volume, but it isn't moving at all. We got the news saying the swiss might sell gold. I know it's somewhat deceptive, but it should push the price down. We got Russia putting their Stratigic Nuclear command on high alert, and withdrawing their ambassadors form UK and US. That should push gold up. I do not believe that these two things are cancelling each other out. This is insane.
Prediction: if Russia shoots a missile over the north pole and tests an airburst stratigic nuke somewhere way off the cost of South America, Amazon dot com will break 400 and the DJIA will break 10000.
I'm going to take a nap. And that Clinton BS. Well someone wake me up if gold moves more than a dollar either way or if they start building a gallows in front of the Senate. my commodities broker knows I'm an idiot, and I'm starting to figure it out too. Good Morning, good night.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:16
Isure (To those on Kitco who are lawyers) ID#421269: -
I have contended for over a year that what is happening with gold leasing is illegal . Is a class action law suit possible? What are the chances this can of worms might be exposed to the light?
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/butler121798.html
Remember, as always, you must remove the 'en' from golden to access this site. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:10
tolerant1 (yup...) ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The impeachment and removal of Bill Clinton loom far larger for the future and destiny of this nation than many would have us believe. In the midst of the turmoil and confusion that surrounds these matters and the effort by the media to reduce the question of impeachment to a mere fight for votes, it is good to step back and keep our eye on the real scale of the stakes for America and the world. While there won't be any air-raid sirens sounding in Washington this week, the Congress will be engaged in the most important act of national self-defense in a long, long time.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_keyes/19981218_xcake_bill_clint.shtml
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 09:06
tolerant1 (yup...) ID#20359: - http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_doggett/19981218_xcjdo_its_time_b.shtml
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:59
tolerant1 (got no money in the bank...do-dah do-dah...what a novel concept...whose money is it anyway?) ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The answer to the question how to stop this unjustifiable intrusion into privacy and control over one's life inherent in the FDIC's Know Your Customer program is very simple -- take your money out of the bank. There are a limited number of dollars in circulation and held by the banks. If 10 percent of the population took 75 percent of their funds out of the banks, what would happen? Exactly what the banks are afraid of -- a run on the banks and no money. It would shut the entire corrupt system down without the help of Y2K. We the people have to stop asking for and seeking enslavement; we have to live life on our own two feet, working together to meet our daily life needs and get the work of living done. We don't need the benefits of all of these adhesion contracts, of which the bank agreement for signatories is one, in order to live. We particularly need to live without those benefits in order to be free. The price of the benefits is too high. Put a stop to it by claiming what is yours -- get your money out of the bank.
J. DARCY
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_e-mail/98.e-mail.shtml - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:58
Aldebaran (Cobra Access to kitco) ID#256365: - it can be a problem sometimes, there are backup sites, and alternative ways in. I have to type another line before I give the url or IE5 will cut off part of the url which is http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm
is a fantastic site run by sharefin, has several ways into kitco that may work better during slow access periods - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:47
Goldteck (Millennium bug jitters boost gold sales) ID#431200: - Buying linked to worries over money, bank cards Friday, December 18, 1998 DENNIS SLOCUM Investment Reporter
Canadians worried about economic chaos resulting from the year 2000 computer problem are buying gold coins and bars to pack with their cans of sardines and hardtack in their survival kits.Continued.........................
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19981218/ROBFront/RGOLD.html - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:46
Crystal Ball (@Tort) ID#287367: - How can you go wrong with SGOLY at $2.625 in 401K; pays 60 cents p.a. dividend, ( figure out THAT return compounded tax-deferred year after year ) unless you think they're gonna go broke, but they've been in business and paying dividends since the fifties. Check it out on the search engines, CBS Newswatch, Stockmaster, etc.... St Helena Gold Mines- they're legit and a steal at this price...was $41/share in 1985. Regards, CB
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:43
Gollum (Frown) ID#424140: - I have to go attend to some business. I hope you guys will keep things quiet till I get back.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:43
Cobra (Access To the KitCo Site) ID#34459: - Guy's, getting access to this site has for me been almost impossible. I would sure like for someone to inform the powers that be that some of us can not get on to the channel. This has been a problem for several days. It is not my equipment or computer either. I have clear access to everything else on the WWW, and fast.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:43
rube (gold) ID#333127: - I no longer think it forms the base of the monetary system. The powers that be have supressed it very well, maybe it's manipulation or maybe not. But when PDG spends bucks to buy more one has to at least keep an eye on things, but then again the Swiss may sell. If I knew I'd be rich.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:41
Gollum (Looking back with fond memory) ID#424140: - Comparing '86 to '98
http://www.mrci.com/correl/lbrc001.htm
It wouldn't be so bad to replay '86 and '87, would it?
http://www.bigcharts.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?sid=&o_symb=nem&symb=nem&time=20 - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:34
TYoung (Tort...) ID#317193: - Until gold confirms it is in a bull market...only a postion should be taken which is probably less than 20% of your porfolio. Never bet the farm unless your ready to lose...ugh...did I say that.
Gold...i think you will know which way it will go by March.
Tom
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:20
rube (GOLD) ID#333127: - Learn to live with no more than 25% in PM's. Don't put more than 25% in anything. Nobody has the answers so spread it out.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:18
Silverbaron (Y2K) ID#288466: - Send an email ( text unnecessary ) to the following address and you will receive a response in 30 seconds or so. It's information from Gary North on Y2K.
collapse@trapped.com - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:16
jims (To Lu jan=) ID#252391: - My best guess on silver and gold today is a small inside day following the volitility of the last two days. Gold currently up 50 cents, silver down 2cents with PT down $2 and PD down $7
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:05
Tortfeasor (jims) ID#37463: - jims, I think you are feeling muuch as I do, with kind of a blue funk about gold and oil. Didn't Cherokee promise us good times in oil. Maybe that was snake oil?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 08:02
Tortfeasor (Dilemna) ID#37463:
Copyright © 1998 Tortfeasor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I have sort of a dilemna. I will have about $4,000 in 401 ( k ) money to allocate. I can't see buying into the equities markets because I think it is foohardy to do so with the P/E ratios. However, gold has been a really nasty friend for the past two years. I am torn between buying into my regular gold mutual fund or setting it in a money market fund until the uptrend in gold is confirmed. In my heart of hearts I think the bottom is here but can't help from worrying when some begin talking of $250/Oz gold. I've been in this long enough to realize that there is no possibility of being too negative when it comes to an investment. What say you all? First kill all the lawyers? eh?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:59
jims (on the brink of a deflationary depression...) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - and the price of oil at this moment is dead flat unchanged and gold is up 80 cents.... have to admit I;ve almost given up on gold....for the time being at least.... this deflationary thing just seems to real to be denied....oil stocks.... are weak as well.....new year rally in both these depressed groups may just be the beginning of a new leg down.... we have to look at what we know and can see.....DEFLATION... is what I see and until bonds break along with the dollar... gold and oil are not going to rally any more than they did day before yesterday.....
PD down $9 SWC in for a little profit taking me thinks.....-- - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:57
Gollum (Took 'em a while) ID#424140: - 03:36 ARAB WORLD DETECTS U.S. DOUBLE STANDARD: FT.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:57
CPO@AU (Dale Hurd CBN Rooting for a depression) ID#329186: - sory if this has been posted I am having problems getting to kitco guess thereis lots of activity in PM's this link http://www.sightings.com/political/rooting.htm
go gold & Silver
ban subliminal messages on TV ( however they are dooing it
cpo
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:56
Lou_Jan (Kilts and things) ID#320136: - Sorry to stride off topic... but I was just wondering,
being Friday and all, third day into Iraqi bombings,
weekend ahead, XAU down over 5% yesterday, JGAI catching
up today, US buck slightly down, ... what do the chartists
see in POG/POS action today? Been trying to eek out a few
fiat dollars with the NEM moves... just wondering if anyone
has a crystal ball handy. TIA - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:53
Gollum (Another morning to be) ID#424140: - Looked I at the clock on the wall.
At seven all was quiet in the great hall.
Again I looked at half past eight.
Gloom was the norm and quiet was it's mate.
Then I heard a tremble, Some sort of sign.
The clock on the wall had just turned nine.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:42
tomo (aurator) ID#372214: - I get your drift on the i.what I meant with regards to placer dome WAS are they retarded paying that price for getchell or is their techology that good that the can find 7mill oz in new reserves and mill it for under 200/oz.Or is there something we are not expecting with pog.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:36
aurator (Corruption? No... We're The Aus. Cricket Board...) ID#255284: - Haggis
Ya tell a whopper
Ben'th th' kilt
is worn
shane warne
and, as a new australian {aka kilt_lifter} you should be suitably embarassed
wish I could stay to talk.. but I cannna...
nytol©Teddo
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:25
Greenstone Gold (aurator (benea' tha kil't) .....) ID#428218: -
nothing is worn, tis all in perfect working order.
Swiss gold, I really do not know wheither to laugh or cry. What was that old song....there's a hole in the bucket, with what should I mend it?.
At the end of the day, there can be no solution since the cause is the effect, or should I say the effect is the cause!
So, pray what are the Swiss to buy with their gold, US debt, I would not think so.
The year 2000 is still some way ahead.....a week is a long time in politics as Harold Wilson used to say.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:24
Speed (Greenstone @ Swiss gold sales) ID#29048:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The best reporting is at Kitco....
Date: Thu Dec 17 1998 14:45
truenorth ( Gold News ) ID#189269:
Copyright © 1998 truenorth/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I dont know if this has been posted. This news from Switzerland regarding
a vote by the Lower House of the Swiss Parliament combined with what Rhody discussed this morning about lease rates rising as gold is aquired from CB's to dump onto the market would be consistent with what we have seen in todays price action. The artcile does't explain this because the author Patrick Chalmers seeks out those bearish on Gold as a rule. However the lower house vote will be followed by a vote by the upper house in the first quarter of '99. If this vote is passed there will be a referendum sometime in early 2000 which requires a 2/3 majority to pass. The Swiss have also stated that if they achieve this mandate they will sell 500 of the 1300 tonnes of gold they consider surplus over a period of 10 years so tha tit has minimal impact on the Gold markets. This is what they said last year and I don't know if they will reiterate these viewpoints. Don't hold your breath on the mainstream media providing this info if last years coverage of this process is any guide.
Here is the link:
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:20
aurator () ID#255284: - tomo
you are a kitcoite, amigo. So why the you in your last post:.......
you never fail to amaze me.that BIS thing gives new meaning to pog.so why is PDG
buying all those gold reserves, i wonder. it must be technology
,,,,when what you mean is I
welcome to the
mind meld
sloppyaur@tor_watchingthe_waterhole__Aren't_you? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:12
Silverbaron (Haggis @ Swiss Gold) ID#288466:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gold dropped more than a dollar during late European trade on news that Switzerland's lower house of parliament voted for a constitutional amendment to sever their currency's peg to gold and allow gold reserve sales.
The National Council in Berne adopted the amendment by a vote of 95 to 57, the latest step in a process which could lead to the eventual sale of 1,300 tonnes of excess reserves.
The amendment now moves to the upper house for a vote next year and could face a popular referendum in 2000.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981217/xy.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:10
aurator (benea' tha kil't) ID#255284: - Haggis
I always knew I liked ya, butt, ya know, I wasn't sure why {o'ur w'llie}
gimme, on hochmanae, a 12 days o' kissmouse carol to slap in the face of all those krazy merkin kristens.
( an' yer kner wha? thay tak thamselfs so serrously!! ha ha )
go kilt pins
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:09
Silas_Marner (Christmas song parody regarding Desert Fox) ID#285430:
Copyright © 1998 Silas_Marner/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Here's a nifty song that my friend Glenn Allen wrote yesterday.
I have it online as a real audio file at
http://205.245.201.1/freedom/silverbombs.ram
Silver Bombs ( sung to the tune of Silver Bells )
Ramadan
Kill Sadam
They're dropping bombs on the city.
Desert Fox
Nuke Iraq
Soon it will be Christmas day.
City sidewalks turn to crush rocks
As the bombs hit the ground
People dying, rubble flying
As the missles rain down
Bombs are bursting down in Bhagdad
With a fiercesome sound
In D.C. there's a hush over town
Ramadan
Drop a bomb
Nobody's talks of Lewinsky
Drink egg-nog
Wag the dog
There'll be no impeachment today
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:09
tomo (rude) ID#372214: - aurator-i actually meant that in a good way. yes i would like to consider myself kitcoite.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:00
Greenstone Gold (One the first day of Christmas.......) ID#428218: -
Sadam said to me......I would like twelve stealth bombers sent to drop in the Red Sea....... - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 07:00
aurator (mindfeck) ID#255284: - tomo
metaphysics
tomo ( kitcoites ) ID#372214
you never cease to amaze me.
Guess who is a {kitcoite}?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:54
Greenstone Gold (SWISS GOLD.......) ID#428218: -
Does anyone have additional news and updates ? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:54
Speed (Oleman from Avid Chat) ID#29048:
- - oleman... Thu, Dec 17, 9:48PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
We are on the cusp of a full-fledged deflationary depression. Very few have studied enough economic history to have any idea of all that portends. Today's action in gold, oil, currencies, etc. is a loudly clanging bell. But who the heck hears?
oleman... Thu, Dec 17, 9:54PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
it is somehat amusing. fokes come here and predict things like 626 Spoos and 140 CRB,without any idea of what they're really saying. I aint saying they're wrong---I think the odds are better than even that we'll see those numbers next year----just that i doubt if many of them have a clue. If they did, there'd be a lot more free\ze-dried food and ammo sold than
we're seeing. Any one who thinks the center will hold in the American Empire with SPX at 600 and CRB at 140 is a fool, imo.
oleman... Thu, Dec 17, 10:19PM CST ( -0600 GMT )
I wasn't calling the fokes who made the predictions fools. Cause one of em was swtrans, and his friends in Chicago dont let nobody call him a fool: ) What I meant was that those who do not realize the full effects of such a huge markdown thruout the economy, and cavalierly make such predictions, are being very foolish indeed. swtrans is probably gonna
be a prophet here. A couple more days like today and I'll openly proclaim him as such.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:52
tomo (kitcoites) ID#372214: - you never fail to amaze me.that BIS thing gives new meaning to pog.so why is PDG buying all those gold reserves, i wonder. it must be technology.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:44
Greenstone Gold (What is...........) ID#428218: -
The Clinton, or should I say Klingon, version of Twelve Days of Christmas.
Klingon Bill................ - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:41
aurator () ID#255284: - What a Hoot!
Vienna and Auckland and Canberra
Austria and Aotearoa and Australia
Fred and aurator and Nick
2 Continents
speaching for......a little while.....
quite a little while
preparing for Y2K
laughing
learning
reaching out
and
gaining more than words will say {ineffably}
the pleasure was all mine, Nick and Fred.
Tanks
thud....
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:39
Silverbaron (Email from Princeton Economics) ID#288466:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Those of you who are technicians and follow the CRB will no doubt have
noticed that we recently broke below a 12 year Triple Bottom at 195.
After breaking below this critical support level last week the CRB got
as low as 188, then retested former support ( 195 ) yesterday. Today the
CRB is plunging again. This is partly because US bombers did not touch
Iraqi oil facilities and partly because the Swiss are going to sell a
whole heap of gold. Hogs are also selling for $45 and that's no
heavenly ham to a farmer who probably spent twice that to produce it.
So golly, what has the CRB got to do with anything. I mean, you
probably don't care about the CRB. Well, you should. It represents a
sign that the Deflationary cycle is about to accelerate.
As the CRB plunges towards 160 or lower, bonds should do well. The
acceleration of Deflation also suggests that even if stocks get back to
New Highs, it will not be a sustainable move. New Highs into 1999 would
set up a bubble top.
For a deeper discussion of this topic check out our chairman's latest
article on the web,
The Fate of the Share Markets. For quick access to this article
click here:
http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/DANGER.HTM
If this link does not work, go to our web site and click on MAIN. At
the top of the White Page
you will see the title to this article: The Fate of the Share Markets
Subscribers can now access the latest issue of our Monthly Report, The
World Capital Market Review. WCMR issue #9 is now posted to the web.
If you have trouble accessing this issue on the web and you are a
subscriber call us ( 609 987 0600 ) and ask for JoAnn Flann. She will
give you access. Or send an email to: JFlann@mail.pei-intl.com Let
her know you are a subscriber and want access to the online version of
WCMR.
The printed version of the WCMR will be back from the printer on Tuesday
December 22nd.
We will send it out as soon as we get it, so hopefully you will receive
in time for Christmas.
If you are not a subscriber and would like to see a back-issue, go to
RESEARCH and click on
World Capital Market or click here:
http://www.pei-intl.com/Research/WCMR/WCM-MAST.HTM - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:39
Greenstone Gold (RETIRED SOLDIER (HAggis)...) ID#428218: -
...early compliments of the season. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:37
Donald (Placer, Bema, Arizona news) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981217/arizona_st_1.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:37
Gollum (The day of greatest darkness) ID#43349: - These are the dark days of winter:
http://riemann.usno.navy.mil/AA/faq/docs/faq11.html
This is also the new moon.
One might thus say this is the darkest day.
So would Bill Clinton. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:32
Gambler (Fireworks to come in late Feb / early March) ID#432223: - Are you ready? It's hard to pass up many of the bargain basement prices on pm stocks. There's so much negativity concerning them and POG. December will prove to be an incredible opportunity for those with the guts and knack for sensing a ripe entry point into these markets. Bema looks good at 75 cents. I got filled today to my delight. I remember when Bob Bishop and the likes were touting it at $6.00 and up. I'll stick with North American stocks thank you very much! Good luck to all!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:30
Aldebaran (yellowcab ) ID#240155: - It is good to see you here. Best Regards
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:25
Donald (Russia puts atomic forces on high alert over Iraq) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981218/ev.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:23
yellowcab (thanks (aldebaron)) ID#18355: - i was a little tense the other night. thanks for responding.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:18
Donald (London morning currency news. Prediction of 112 dollar/yen and more) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981218/eq.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:10
Donald (Japanese exporters bearish on the dollar) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981218/ed.html
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 06:03
RETIRED SOLDIER (HAggis) ID#399147: - Gut to see ya mon!! I agree one canna sook da gole, lead will cure him of it . REDNECK. Ret Soljers cusin, he lets me on from time to time.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:59
Nick@C (still talking to fred at vienna and aurakiwi) ID#386245: - .
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:38
Nick@C (i am now speaking to fred at vienna and aurator in nz ) ID#386245: - right now
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:37
Greenstone Gold (Rumpled...........) ID#428218: -
Ya cannie suck GOLD !
Do us all a favour, go and suck LEAD !!!!!!!
Haggis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:35
Greenstone Gold (Auric.....the BIS and the price of GOLD....) ID#428218: -
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finart1.htm
Haggis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:33
aurator () ID#255284: - Fred Nick & I
are talking alive - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:32
Nick@C (3 way conversation) ID#386245: - between nz, oz and austria being attempted as i type.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:28
Greenstone Gold (Rumpled (GOLD SUCKS!!---HAS SUCKED----WILL SUCK!! Anybody who doesn't agree can....) ) ID#428218: -
Rumpled........straighten yourself out !
Haggis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:28
aurator () ID#255284: - now, you're embarassing me with those thick rosettes .
Where is that oz4ian? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:27
Greenstone Gold (Rumpled (GOLD SUCKS!!---HAS SUCKED----WILL SUCK!! Anybody who doesn't agree can....) ) ID#428218: -
Rumpled........straighten yourself out !
Hagtgis - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:22
Nick@C (auraescheveria) ID#386245: - any of a genus of tropical american plants of the orpine family. with thick rosettes of thick fleshy leaves
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:12
aurator () ID#255284: - Nick@Echolalia
digital communication!! - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 05:09
Nick@C (talking to auracious) ID#386245: - as i type. one finger. gday mate.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:57
esotericist (NIck@C - Compliment taken) ID#224230: - Thanks for voting me No#1 - despite my 3 post faux pas.
And congratulations for your comments regarding whiners complaining when stock recommendations go down. If ANYbody here had an infallible crystal ball view of the future...they wouldn't hang on on Kitco would they...? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:54
aurator () ID#255284: - Éß
I hope that's fiancée, not fiancé - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:41
EB (this is true...) ID#187109: -
Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:17
aurator ( ) ID#255284:
Nick/Éß
that's fiancé...........¡ohmy!
---------------------------------
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:36
aurator () ID#255284: - nickle
You bought xysczwly corp twenty minutes after me, brother. Now, when ya gonna sell?
Where's that Fred@Vienna? I hope he ain't waltzing on a frozen Danube. Is it frozen, this Danube. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:34
EB (g'day....to the late/early squad...) ID#187109:
- - Nick-at-nite - nope........I haven't been yet ( to bed ) ...... Ya like those charts do ya? What does that silver say to ya? Not that I care what people at kitco say ( that's why I'm up at 1:30am ) .......... ( WINK ) ... Dang shiny silver is an evil one to try and figure........hmmmmm. Cheers mate............keep checking the post ;- )
Xsysaurator - You want to buy xsysc Well, it can still go lower than 9¢............but if you say BUY, well then................I am inclined to hold tight with it.........I don't have much choice............and it's only money anyway.............
btw, I'm done buying stuff through the internet ( for now ) . I did a bunch-o-xmas shopping here and the S/H killed me.......not to mention the motherboard ( the gift for myself ) I bought ended up being as good as the box it was shipped in........now I gotta send it back.......and wait for a new one to be sent..........and call my 'puta guru back ( at his usual hourly rate ) to help install ( I ain't too good with jumpers and bios and IRQ's and all that ) it again. damn 'putas...........but I do have EVERYTHING backed up.......TWICE..............¡ohmy!........I can't seem to lose that canobeeros address......... ( doggonit! ) ...
away....to count shee...............zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....... ( snore ) ...
Éßeddybye
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:32
Nick@C (Soooooooooooooooo) ID#386245: - Some of you bought this xsysc stuff, huh ( whatever that is ) ?
Now
anything that goes down 75% rapidement is either:
1 ) oversold
2 ) worthless
Without even knowing what it/they are ( silver standard--ok, nick--get your fingers off their butts and look it up!! ) , I would be buying right now.
Then again, I've got a million shares in Kern Corporation. Anyone want to trade me for their Bre-X certificates? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:24
aurator () ID#255284: - AUric™
Do you think we are witnessing a kind of moral panic in the Congress? A most unusal thing to confess. And, who cares? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:23
crazytimes (glenn...) ID#344326: - Isn't EVERYONE right about the DOW and S&P?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:19
aurator () ID#255284: - Glenn
Is it possible to know who sold and who bought?
please see my post below: Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:09 aurator ( Sword of Damocles )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:17
aurator () ID#255284: - Nick/Éß
that's fiancée. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:13
crazytimes (Just a late night hello....) ID#344326: - To my friends in KitcoLand. Crazytimes here, having a toke tonight and enjoying it. Kitco is still the most intelligent site on the web. No shortage of strong opinions which makes for the food fights but still a very intelligent site. Cycles, my friends, cycles....they must happen. It is the way. To not let the cycles play out as they should is only to create more disharmony once the transition comes. It's gonna be a beaut folks. Fasten your seltbelts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:12
Nick@C (Hi EB) ID#386245: - Girlfriend kick you outta bed, mate
Hope your silver prediction skills are better than your golf p.s.!!!!!
Your gold/silver/other charts are some of the best on Kitco. So are you, mate. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:11
aurator (Zenlike) ID#255284: - It's time to be this cwazy stock = it's time to BUY this......
dreamingIam@butterfly_aurator - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:10
Aldebaran (Goldbug23 Aldebaran property in Chile) ID#240155: - No, I've never heard of it. I don't follow the mining stocks.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:09
aurator (watching the waterhole) ID#255284: - Methinks
'tis time to be this cwazy stock xsysc
dunno what the feck it is. But the lamb and the lion have just popped up from behind a rock looking furtive, and, well sheepish, they've been up to some old tricks. Yup. xsysc for me.
Do ya see how Norman Jones, the goat {not the ghoti} helped me pick stocks? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:09
glenn (Dec99 390 calls) ID#376309: - Someone bought another 15,000 of the dec99 350 calls today and that is why the price went up even thou the price of gold went down. There are 50,000 of the calls out there. This is a joke. I am currently convinced that they will expire worthless simply because EVERYONE can not be right! Some how the market will ensure that.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:03
Auric (Starr Wars Update) ID#257312: -
Turns out the new Speaker of the House, the
Honorable Bob Livingston, has been unfaithful in the past. What's more, this all came out
on the eve of an impeachment vote. My take--
Big mistake by White House. Republicans now
see this as a blood feud. I think they are
going to go medieval on this administration's ass. And that includes Hillary's fat ass as well! http://www.drudgereport.com/ - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:02
Nick@C (Wake up Fred!!!) ID#386245: - We wanna talk to you.
JD---
Spin meisters won this round with their 17th Swiss gold sale story. How well are the RSA high-cost miners going to manage a gold 250 world ( if such a fate should descend upon us ) ? I have gained a great deal of respect for the PTB ( Powers That Be ) . They have done an amazing job of managing prices of precious to their own ends. A fine juggling act--well performed. I still think of the Dutch boy with his finger in the dike.
Cheers, Nick. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:01
EB (things...........er........stuff.......) ID#187109:
- - EJ - too bad 'bout that xsysc :- ( Nick is right.......I think I mentioned an EXIT point the other day. Oh well......ya live ya learn. btw, I am still holding some relatively worthless xsysc right now too. Let us cry in the collective beer together..........boo hoo. It'll either take a TOTAL crap......or it will come back........tick-tock, tick-tock...........shoulda bought OPEN ;- ) ......
Silver - the other day I write this excellent ( I thought so ) Haiku about silver saying that it would drop like rain........and the VERY NEXT DAY it zooooooms like a rocket.......hmmmmmmm. And the very next day after that it drops like rain............more hmmmmmmmm's. Now, if I was a betting man ( and I am......ask that sheepy fella down under ) I would STILL have to go AGAINST this silver rally.........my straight-edge still says DOWN.......aside from a small blip in the smooth trend-line............I hate those damn blips................yet more hmmmmmmmmmmm's....... tick-tock..... http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha80.gif ( the trend is your friend....despite stoch's...........
Gold - well.......one step forward.........two steps back........... ( the cha-cha ) ........that's right, gold is doing the cha-cha............cha-cha-chunk!......ker plunk!........ ( ugh ) ..... http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha70.gif ready yourselves for the final 1998 washout............going for new lows? will it be quick? must we be nimble? indeedyO.............. ( maybe ) ......... the Sheller disclaimer apply applies..........
Like, fer sure........
away........to the charts
Éßsold the rallies
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 04:00
Dabchick (Thursday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - For Thursday 17th Dec calculated from data published in Today's FT.
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
$LIBOR-------------5.56--------------5.22-------------5.06-----------------4.97
Mean GoldLR------3.94---------------3.93-------------3.71-----------------3.47
Gold Lease Rate---1.62---------------1.29-------------1.35-----------------1.50
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.03 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ------- ( - 0.01 ) ----------- ( - 0.01 )
Silver Lend Rate----4.05--------------3.35-------------2.35-----------------2.05
Silver Lease Rate---1.51--------------1.87--------------2.71-----------------2.92
( Change ) --------- ( - 0.05 ) -------- ( 0.00 ) --------- ( 0.00 ) ------------ ( - 0.03 )
$LIBOR = BBA London rate fixed at 11am
Mean Gold Lending Rates and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild
Lease Rate = $LIBOR minus Lending Rate .
( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day
For comparison with $LIBOR, the FT rates for US Dollar CD's ( mid rates ) are as follows:
Period------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
US$ CD's-----------4.90-------------4.77---------------4.76---------------4.72
( Change ) --------- ( + 0.08 ) -------- ( + 0.03 ) --------- ( + 0.04 ) ------------ ( + 0.04 )
Note the rise in rates for US$ CD's yesterday. Regards.............Dabchick - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:53
Goldbug23 (James - The Madness of Crowds) ID#432148: - Yes, your PM and our Pres can get away with what is happening and the flock will follow. All explained in the great book above. And to think our Sec. of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs here in the US said the timing was not connected to the impeachment vote. For Shame!
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:53
John Disney (books are good ..) ID#24135: - Whatta deal ..
5 books for ONE .. Amazon doesnt make money but boy do
they gain market share .. and that's the name of the
game ..
.. or was cash flow the name of the game
.. or was it cricket
.. do they have any books on divine guidance in
the commodities markets ?
.. I need a book like that . - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:48
Nick@C (Aurabookworm) ID#386245: - Yair, mate. Amazon packers sent me five books, when I ordered and paid for one.
They are going to have to put out a new edition of Pop Delusions, you know!?! The 401k bubble!!!! Will make tulipmania seem like a snowflake in a blizzard. What are 100 million middle class Merkins going to do with their worthless paper Probably shoot each other. Oh well, there is always a silver lining{:- ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) . Wink, wink, nod, nod.
Hey--did you see the one about the dead parrot ( budgie? ) . - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:45
Goldbug23 (Aldebaran) ID#432148: - Do you have any connection with the Aldebaran Property in North Chile that Placer Dome has an interest in? ;- )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:44
aurator () ID#255284: - Nick
Your last post gives a new meaning to digital communication.
And reminds me of a quote {though I can't really think why} of Nicholas Monsarrat
Progress in the Foreign Service is either vaginal or rectal. You marry the boss's daughter or you crawl up his bottom.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:34
Nick@C (Anyone who reads about a share on Kitco) ID#386245: - then goes out and buys some
then blames the share recommender for his/her losses
should follow this three-step program:
1 ) stand up
2 ) remove digit from back passage
3 ) go and wash hands
then go start a chicken ranch with a soul mate in the back woods
away from all communication with the outside world
Cheers, Nick - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:24
Auric (jims-- Redenomination ) ID#257312: -
I think that refers to the redenomination of all currencies in terms of the European Monetary Unit. They really are going to attempt to make the EMU fly! - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:23
aurator () ID#255284: - Nick
What do you mean, buddy, You got five books for the price of one? Were the other unordered?
Are they giving away money? That would explain their constant losses. Umm. How does a company that doesn't have the overhead of the large bookshops still lose {ok, loose} money each year?
Some imaginative PE ratios, what does a ratio mean if the denominator is a negative? rhetorically ( sounds like ret auric ally? )
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:12
aurator () ID#255284: - Auric
I thought the currency of the BIS was the Gold Franc.
Petronius
Norman Jones, rather like Mr Ed, just tapped out the Stock code in Morse on my but, butting my but, as it were.
Crusty
If gold doesn't go up, It'll like break out of the double head butt formation and go down. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:10
CPO@AU (James(John D@I agree that blair is a cowardly pervert. (ID#252150) 01:40) ID#329186:
Copyright © 1998 CPO@AU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - glad to see that you as well as tolerant1 ( ID20359 ~ 14 dec ) find the lap dog hyena repulsive and cowardly. its just a pity that like in the USA too many fools cannot see through Blair.
The one who also pretends to understand y2k sufficiently to lecture the europeans ( but either can't make his target or cannot delegate ,or both )
guess we are in the same boat.
TV offered a vote on yes/no to bomb Iraq. IMHO that is a poor way they should have asked further if you thought it was to delay klintlers hide roasting or not but then opinion pols on politik!!
Go Gold & Silver
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:09
John Disney (Oh yeah ..) ID#24135: - contrarian
...
if it IS divine guidance, Id be
very interested in anything else
the BIG GUY has to say .. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 03:05
John Disney (interesting) ID#24135: - Contrarian
..
Do you reach this conclusion by
TA or by divine guidance ? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:59
Aldebaran (Dec99 390 call options ) ID#240155:
Copyright © 1998 Aldebaran All rights reserved - Gold Dec 99 390 calls: Dec 17, 1998
Dec99 gold futures contract fell $3.70
call options on that futures contract below strike price $350 fell
for $350 calls and above the settle values increased
contract…….strike..exp.date…settlement..prev…..vol…….highest.lowest..
OG 12 99 C,,,350,,11/12/1999,,,,,,2.30,,,,,,2.10,,,,,,,276,,,,,,2.10,,,,,,1.90
OG 12 99 C,,,360,,11/12/1999,,,,,,1.80,,,,,,1.70,,,,,,,255,,,,,,1.70,,,,,,1.60
OG 12 99 C,,,370,,11/12/1999,,,,,,1.20,,,,,,1.10,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,1.40,,,,,,1.30
OG 12 99 C 380,,11/12/1999,,,,,,1.00,,,,,,,,.90,,,,,,,,17,,,,,,1.00,,,,,,1.00
OG 12 99 C,,,390,,11/12/1999,,,,,,,.90,,,,,,,.70,,,,15,209,,,,,1.00,,,,,,,.80
Open Interest on Dec99 390 call is 35051
sources:
http://www.nymex.com/futures/intnetco
http://208.230.184.164/inewf.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q4/1998_12/981217.222109.winstonee.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q4/1998_12/981218.000900.auratoree.htm
If you find any inaccuracies, please point them out to me. If you can offer an interpretation of this data, please feel free to do so. Can someone explain the term Herstadt risk, I gather it means risk of default or counter-party credit problems, but where does the name come from?
If you feel this data is of any value please post a link to it after 6:00 kitco time so that the daytime people can offer interpretation. My own unsophisticated view is that some very wealthy people are attempting to tear the temple down.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:59
Nick@C (Gday all) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - What an INTERESTING 24 hours worth of posts. Kitco is still THE BEST place to be on the net.
eso@tericist wins my award for the best post of the day ( Dog Waggers ) . In fact, it was so good that he/she posted it three times. Gotta watch that itchy trigger finger when Kitco is slow folks.
Skep@tic -- welcome to Kitco. Do not be disheartened that noone ( private joke ) responded to your first post. You need one of those convex mirrors for Kitco posts at the end of the day as they tend to get lost in never-never land. Hope to hear more from you.
EJ@Mike Sheller's recommendation down 75%. I feel for you mate. Just two little things. 1 ) Did Mike Sheller call your broker for you and order those shares Does M.S. spoon your cornflakes into your mouth for you in the morning Does he also wipe your...er...ahem ...for you To all Kitcoers. Take responsibility for your own actions!!! 2 ) There is such a thing as a stop-loss. It is probably THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ingredient to successful trading. Now I know that sometimes prices drop so danged quickly that SLs don't work. Life wasn't meant to be easy.
T@bone -- mate, I don't always get to every Kitco post. If there is an unanswered question, I would be pleased to answer it. BTW-- I sold my RSG long ago and have been in 'n out several times. I still consider RSG to be one of the very BEST gold shares in Oz. They will be triple the current price within 2-3 years ( IMHO ) . Also read the comments above.
Cheers, Nick.
ps--- All of you Amazon junkies. $300 a share!!!!!!!!!! I ordered a book from Amazon and received FIVE ( for the price of one ) . Such a deal!! I have got a blue tulip for sale. The first Kitcoer to deposit $500 000 into my account will get the tulip bulb plus a free book ( How to Develop A Low Cost Family Food-Storage Program ) .
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:58
Auric (jims 02:11) ID#257312:
Copyright © 1998 Auric/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
My 2 ƒlorrins worth-- The Bank for International Settlement is one of many factors that have a say so about the price of Gold in US$. The BIS is composed of North American, European, and a few Asian monetary big shots. Alan Greenspan, for example, sits on the board of directors at the BIS. He may be the F*ing chairman, for all I know: ) . The flagship currency of the BIS, the SDR, is a Gold backed currency. For reasons not entirely clear to me, the BIS will not tolerate Gold below $280. Also, I think they don't want Gold much above $300. The question is, does the BIS have the wherewithal to keep Gold from breaking loose from the BIS's decreed trading range. They have been pretty good lately. Will they continue to be so in 1999? Either way, you'll hear it first at Kitco. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:54
Petronius (@aurator) ID#225125: - but he knew which stocks to buy
Did he pick Amazon? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:49
contrarian (PMS Tanking) ID#203137: - PMS to tank BIG TIME today -- target Gold $280
Siver $4.60 then small rally before further downward spiral.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:21
aurator (Marionettes and Martinets......) ID#255284: - EJ
I once had a goat I named after a local politician Norman Jones. Sure was a dumb animal, but he knew which stocks to buy. Sure butted me whenever he could.
James
Yup and M Albright mentioned NZ & Aus as open supporters of the US/Klinton warmongering initiative. That's it for our PM Mother Shipley, IMO. But who are the puppetmasters?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:14
James (I'm also disgusted with our Cdn PM, Cretin. He is an oportunistic, carreer) ID#252150: - politician who never was encumbered with an ideal in his life and slavishly endorses everything his golfing buddy, Bill, does.
When he said that Canada supports the U.S. attack on Iraq, he sure as hell does'nt speak for me or millions of other free thinking Canadians, but I suppose he can claim to speak for the majority of our population who are almost as brainwashed as the U.S. sleepwalkers. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:11
jims (What is SDR talking about?) ID#252391: - I think that SDR has or is making a point but I've missed some of the earlier leasons - what does he mean by bond redenomination.
What is his point? Is it that a massive conversion is about to take place, about which nothing has been said by the Central Bankers and to which gold is a component along with the yen and Chinese RMB
I neeed a little tutoring on this
Can somebody up at this hour give a hand to my understanding of what sounds like a scholarly point. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:07
Auric (SDRer) ID#257312: -
Point taken. The BIS is just one of many forces affecting the price of Gold. I gather you think it is a big factor, but not all powerful. Is that correct? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 02:04
EJ (Mike Sheller, you out there?) ID#45173: - Wondering when you think XSYSC might get peeled off the floor. Down 40% today, 75% since you recommended it. Naw, a few thousand bucks ain't so much to pay to learn what I already knew, that one can discern as much about the future from astrology as from a talking goat. But at least you get to pet a goat, even while he's eating your shoes.
Now let's break out some charts and see what's coming up for gold. Hmmm. Ah! Head and Shoulders with Conditioner for Dry Hair Only! Gold is going up tomorrow, unless of course it goes down.
Bedtime.
-EJ - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:59
Jeil (Peace and government are inconsistent thoughts) ID#253228: - Liberals are advocates of big government, government is ( as any libertarian knows ) force, so it is only a logical extension that government will get around to using their force internationally. It shows the extent to which both Liberal and Conservative thinking are bankrupt philosophies.
That spike on the Kitco chart apparantly existed only in the mind of the Kitco computer as it has disappeared as quickly as it appeared. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:51
T-Bone (Guns?) ID#36829: -
I have been watching the posts of the last few months from afar. I hope the latest developments in the Gulf are are an example for those that contine to hold the belief that we should hold gold and GUNS!!
Yes, hold GOLD by all means, but guns aren't the answer to our problems.
Regards
T-Bone
PS, Nick I am still holding RSG and still awaiting your reply from several months ago. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:44
James (No hope for the Land of the sleepwalkers. The latest poll shows that the majority) ID#252150: - of Americans agree with the decision to attack Iraq & don't question Klinton's motives.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:41
aurator (Trojan horse and fish) ID#255284: - Obsidian
I am not familiar with the subtleties of options trading, so, if my question is ignorant, mea culpa, I'll go back to my Steinlager. However, I could understand your response in terms of a hedge position, but didn't Winston's post indicate a secondary market trading position? THat is, not between the writer and a purchaser, but between a seller and a purchaser?
Darn it, there is something fishy here....
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:40
James (John D.@I agree that Blair is a cowardly pervert. I watched him for a few seconds) ID#252150: - on TV defending his hero & fellow pervert & there is definitely something not right with him. His body language seemed uncoordinated & disjointed, almost like a puppet. Howdy Doody time.
Hard to believe that the Nation that produced Disraeli & Churchill could end up with such a morally bankrupt wimp as their leader.
I'm disgusted with the British. The Country that used to take such great pride in their good sportsmanship & doing the right thing, involved in the most cowardly war in history part2. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:38
HighRise (Gold Spike Up) ID#401460: - H
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:36
Jeil (Envy, The exercise of power does requrie good judgement.) ID#253228:
Copyright © 1998 Jeil/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - But when you are a sociopath your judgement runs only to what is your own best interest and you manipulate others to that end. Such is Billy Bob's problem, not to mention that he really does not have a fully functioning brain. This is not so much a condemnation as an observation. Appently he has a teriffic memory which developed at the expense of his logical abilities. He has no moral base ( which should be obvious ) so whoever has talked with him last has the most influence. He does not have the ability to make his own judgements.
He clearly is a dangerous man as he is now demonstrating. Killing other human beings for what amounts to no justification as self defense is murder. This is what we get when we have a person in power who lacks morals ( the same can be said for George Bush ) . - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:35
SDRer (Auric, my window...well, my peek-hole, is really) ID#290172: - focused on what the ECB and EMEAPs are about...one thinks
it astounding that they have held the lid down as long as
they have.
Platinum, as a PM, I respectfully leave to RJ and John Disney, either of whom can better assess plats 'where to' in a world were markets address real-world needs. This assumes, of course, that the market can resume
a 'real-world' aspect, recover from all the distortions and contortions, and serve as reliably as before. Sadly, that may be a moot point. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:24
Auric (SDRer) ID#257312: -
Good to see your posts again here. Re Platinum at $347-- Does your work say it goes to $347 and pretty much stabilizes there? What are the chances Platinum could break loose and head to $500 in the next 3 to 6 months? - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:19
Envy (Simple Thoughts) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Sleeping around on your wife is bad. Not telling the truth is bad. Having sex with someone who works for you is bad, not to mention extremely stupid. Blowing up people who don't have the capability to fight back is bad. Killing people when there might be other options is bad. Using force to make another country do what you want is bad. Killing people who haven't ever held a weapon is bad. Reporting that people have been killed on the news with a smile on your face is bad. Telling other elected officials that they have to vote the way you say or risk not being re-elected is bad. Attacking someone when they've already been humiliated is bad. Let us have the strength and the vision to tell the truth, see the big picture, set an example, forgive, seek peace over death, and exercise power wisely.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:16
CC (First Silver Reserves) ID#340286: - The only pure silver play that is profitable NOW!
http://www.firstsilver.com/ - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:14
Obsidian (Aurator: @Flying too close to the Arum) ID#237299:
Copyright © 1998 Obsidian/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I read that post when it originally appeared ( Crystal Ball's ) , and gave it some thought- went to the options board, looked it over, and thought some more. All this thinking has given me a headache- ( the math in the article does seem off doesn't it? Since 15,000+ contracts should be about 1.5 million ounces. Didn't the original source say there was 29,000 open interest contracts at that strike? ) , but errors or not, it seems the logical explanation is this:
Some hedge fund, or coalition of hedge funds, have borrowed a large amount of gold- be it 1.5 or 3 million ounces. This much we all knew. So their contract expires in November of next year- and it's time to pay the piper. If gold continues to decline, the game is still afoot and the gold carry trade gave them a profit- if gold starts to rise, well then things could get ugly very quickly- so they bought a hedge. If $390 is the magic number, then one could look backwards in time to when gold *was* at $390 and pretty much figure out *when* it was borrowed. Likewise by scanning news articles from the time it could probably be deduced *who* loaned it.
Now, if I was the counter party in said call, and some well dressed gentleman casually mentioned over lunch that he'd like to buy options for, oh, say- 3 million ounces with an absurd strike price- I would choke on my tea and run like hell. It's like someone taking out a billion dollars in life insurance before taking a plane trip; you'd not want to be on that flight. So, *someone* gave some high reassurances that this was insurance only and very unlikely to happen. ( An unnamed official..as they're so fond of quoting in the papers )
So, it looks like a standard stock hedging program- only this time it's hedging a hedge. Sound logical?
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:04
SDRer (Bits and pieces ) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ( 1 ) Twice ( 11/17/98 & 12/10/98 ) they've had everything lined up beautifully and each time a spike has been thrust into the wheel. On the 10th, the spike managed to freeze the system for a couple of days. They appear to be back on their EXPENSIVE track ( if fiat money meant anything which it does NOT-this project has supplied sufficient proof of that ) .
( 2 ) The CNY and the Euro beat as one heart; tick for tick, pm ratio locked to pm ratio, quite a remarkable love affair. Helmut Kohl's many China visits were obviously not wasted.
( 4 ) The CNY and the JPY are linked through the dollar and pm ratios…you don't want to see this…just consider the very REAL possibility of a very REAL relationship in that quarter.
( 5 ) Platinum has proved to be dancing the Reciprocal Gavotte. One feels confident Silver is another popular partner at the CB Ball.
( Although one has 'nigglings' that the troubles are coming from Versailles on the Potomac ( ! ) ( ? ) One needs to squiggle way down the rat hole to investigate that. Will try to assemble weekly totals for your shock and amusement ( it is, after all, just paper ) .
( 6 ) Where to from here? Gold up to 294.xxx [anything after the decimal they can change to suit their needs] and platinum must come down to the 347 level.
( 7 ) XEU & USD are at cross-over parity ( through the SDR ) at 1.18--1.19/.84xx level, and when platinum settles back to they will be in perfect formation for the GreatBond redenomination and clearance. oooh my We live in interesting times. Goodnight.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 01:01
Explorer () ID#230243: -
January Crude down $1.35 at $11.03 ( -10.9% ) .
I believe this Iraqi episode, when finished; that Iraq will lose its Oil Export Quota's.
Then the crude price will rise nicely - but only when they say it will.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:55
John Disney (.. dildos over Baghdad coalition ..) ID#24135: - to all
Mother tony blair seems devoted to the cause of
bailing clinton out ..
.. is it my imagination or does this guy seems a
bit shy of testosterone
.. so we have an cowardly pervert and a man of IMHO
somewhat fuzzy sexual orientation playing about with
cruise missiles ..
... could there be a phallic explanation to all this ?
.. am I being silly - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:55
Auric (Two Stock Market Theories Are Going To Be Put To The Test ) ID#257312: -
1. The Super Bowl indicator. Gave a bear market call with the Denver Broncos victory. 2. Impeachment. We will see what effect a presidential impeachment will have on this market in about 4 days. Impeachment looks highly probable now. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:54
aurator () ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Auric™
I think there is a great Herstadtt risk that those Dec 99 390s will ever settle. It's part of my Trojan Horse thinking see
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1998q4/1998_12/981217.203010.auratoree.htm
BART
I say, old bean, thanks for the sandpit. However, I could not link back to Crystal Ball's original post Date: Sun Nov 22 1998 22:47
Is this because you have changed your Server provider?
Please, please, please, restore the history of kitco so we can easily link from the past.
Failing which, Limey, could you burn a CD for mois, s'il vous plaît.
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:37
RJ (..... Cowabunga .....) ID#411259: -
And a Hearty HO ho hooooo.
Heees ridin' a wave
He's catchin' it twice
Always seems to know
If its gnarly or nice
Santa Surf is surfin' toniiiiight…..
Yep
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:35
Auric (aurator-- 00:09) ID#257312: -
Also curious about that Gold 390 option. Is it all a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing? Or do you think it might pan out: ) - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:28
Schippi (RJ Caught in the Act!) ID#105139: -
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/santasur.jpg - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:09
aurator (Sword of Damocles) ID#255284:
- -
Winston, your post seemed to have passed without comment:
Date: Thu Dec 17 1998 22:21
Winston ( ) ID#244446:
Usually, the liitle-traded Dec 99 390 gold call has a volume of a few hundred at most. Today's volume was 13,209
See http://www.nymex.com/futures/intnetco
You either made a typo or the volume changed to 15, 209 when I just looked. I am very puzzled with this whole business. I also noted from your link that the Dec 00 380 calls had a high volume, at 3,397 and the Jun 00 380 calls have a similar volume at 3,417
Is it ever possible to know who wrote the options?
A few weeks ago Crystal Ball {Date: Sun Nov 22 1998 22:47} alerted us to John Dizard’s article in the New York Post
http://www.nypost.com/business/7691.htm
in which Dizard said:
The December 1999 call will expire on
the second Friday in November of the
year. As of Nov. 18, the total amount of
gold call options for that 390 contract
was over 3,200,000 ounces, which is
over 90 tonnes of gold. The total gold
calls for the whole month is over 180
tonnes. That's a lot of gold.
To put that position in context, the
January 1999 call options total a little
over 660,000 ounces, or about 20
tonnes.
Said one gold trader on the Comex
floor, If gold comes in $30 an ounce
better ( it closed Friday at $296.05
spot ) it's going to be a T-Rex. Then it
would be unhedgeable. The whole thing
is weird. The date is all wrong. The
size is all wrong. It looks random,
erroneous.
By unhedgeable, our trader means that
it would not be practical to lay off the
risk on other gold market participants.
When market makers on the floor of the
exchange sell calls, they don't plan to
go into their private vault and take out
100 ounce gold bars and hand them over
to you if the price moves in your favor.
They buy some call options or futures
on their own from other dealers or
exchanges who can get the gold from
mines or central banks who have the
physical gold to sell.
But the Dec 1999 calls are such a big,
odd position that it would be difficult
to lay off the risk. Our trader has heard
the talk that this position has been
built up by individuals who are betting
on Y2K problems. But he's skeptical.
Maybe 10 percent of the volume on this
exchange represents retail, on average.
This is a professional market, not a
retail market. This just doesn't make
sense.
Because the Y2K position doesn't make
sense, right now it's created a lot of
inefficiencies in the pricing of gold
options before and after the Dec 99s.
And those inefficiencies are the source
of profit for the floor traders.
By the way, for their own account,
many if not most of them are dubious
about gold as an investment. It's been
the worst investment in the universe,
says our trader. The cash costs of
mining keep dropping, and the supply
goes up.
So where's the possibility of $390
gold? Do the Y2K paranoids know
something? Or is it just a small ring of
buyers. There is some talk that this is
a very small group doing this.
This isn't going away, says the trader.
It's going to get bigger and it could
become a magnetic issue.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
snipped from another newsgroup:
........Looks like the biggest short squeeze in gold's
history is upon us. I don't see any way that investors holding these
Dec 99 calls will ever see their potential profit. The gold market
would close way before the expiration. The speculative short position
in gold is huge. Now we've got a date certain, that investors seem to
have picked, where this short position must be unwound. My guess is
that this position is starting to unwind now. The new currency out of
Europe will put tremendous pressure on the US dollar. This can only
help the dollar price of gold in which most of these contracts are
denominated. Couple this with highly increased demand for physical and
we've got the makings of an explosive market. Unfortunately, it may
become 'too' explosive forcing the market to close from lack of
liquidity. Contracts entered into or held today are highly speculative
as to whether you'll get paid.
It will be interesting from this point forward to watch the more nearby
contracts for increased activity on the call side. The options market
generally leads all the other markets. If suddenly we see huge hedging
of short positions say in the February contract, then it's probably time
to count how much gold you've got in your pocket. This gold market at
the Comex is a very thin market compared with the currency markets.
Buyer beware!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I wonder if anyone can get a bead on what’s happening here? Who wrote the options? Who sold them? Who bought them?
Any thoughts
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:03
gagnrad (TheMissingLink re your post last night) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Sorry for the late reply but my wife went out to a dinner with our local school board so I spent the evening wandering around Riven ( the computer game, sadly lacking in mention of gold ) . I think, in response to the idea of civilian handweapons, the first priority is always to teach the children, by actually going to the range and letting them see and hear the damned thing in action, that it is not a toy. All the locks, childproofings, parental worry et cetera are meaningless unless they realize that it is painfully noisy, produces hurtful flashes of light and may only be looked upon in your presence under heavy penalty otherwise. Then comes the training drill ie Eddie Eagle says, 'Stop! Don't touch. Go tell an adult.' Plus a locking box just in case ones houseguests are less responsible in training their kids.
I believe the prejudice to which you allude to be less religious than cultural, comparing the English speaking world with Israel, Switzerland, Sweden and other civilized countries. I have theories as to the origin, too long for this forum.
Concerning missile diplomacy, it is just plain dumb. About on par with giving nuclear reactors to N Korea. It is a shame that they would waste so much, whether $700,000 or $1,000,000 a pop when the entire thing could have been bypassed with just a little more intelligent talking diplomacy. Henry Kissinger could have had Saddam giving guided tours and selling popcorn to tourists five years ago. I'm starting to really wonder though how much of the gold bear market is related to a desire in some quarters to reduce the value of Baghdad's gold holdings as counterpoint to the oil price deflation. If so it would be just another mark of clumsy powerbrokering, destined to backfire in a big way. - Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:03
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...) ID#20359: - http://www.post-gazette.com/headlines/19981218islam5.asp
- Date: Fri Dec 18 1998 00:02
John Disney (Spikes and crashes ..) ID#24135: - .. diamonds and ashes ...
.. ..
Kitco prices march to a different drum ...
.. attaching too much importance to them can be
hazardous to your mental health ..
