The only thing that makes me wonder if I am wrong is the number of German concerns that are buying our American corporations. If this continues, we will have a strong clue that the EURO might succeed, and that the US is far weaker than it appears to be.

Like someone on steroids who suddenly runs out, or a manic depressive. The longer you are on the high, the worse the low. Better to have many shorter cycles.

That's what we get for messing with Mother Nature with our attempts to eliminate the business cycle. You might say that the FED, in its infinite wisdom to prevent recessions, has put us on long-term steroids.

But -- we are running out.

Part of the reason that it is still possible that I may be right is that our illustrious government may be able to hide more debt under the rug for years into the future.

The name of the worldwide game with fiat currencies seems to be -- how much debt you can accumulate secretly before someone ( the people ) refuse to pay the interest.

Actually, I would rather get it over with now -- near y2k. Can you imagine what it would be like if our 'day of reckoning' was postponed to 2010-2015? I shiver to think what it would be like then, if the excesses of now can continue another 20 years.

Just a thought -- if you are a FED chairman, and you don't know what to do with worldwide deflation looming -- you might be tempted to overinflate the currency rather than risk the oblivion of deflation/depression. Inflation is far more politically acceptable then depression -- and you can inflate away the debt.

We at Kitco will be years ahead of whatever happens. Some of us were 20 years to early -- like my dad.

Looks like the farmers will be hit first.

If we weaken the dollar to fend off deflation in this country, we will lessen the adverse effect of the above on our economy -- at the cost of a rising price of gold.

If various countries decide to set up major trade barriers, as they might despite competitive devaluations, then the 'gig' is probably up worldwide.

I agree that the IMF may just 'give' Brazil the cash they need -- this time around. If Brazil gets back on their feet their goods will be much cheaper. But the underlying problems will still be there. I don't have a clue how the IMF will deal with Mexico, given that their debt is comparable to that of Brazil, and their foreign trade is substantial, though not as much as Brazil.

My guess, however, is that we in the US will not have a full-blown drag-out depression until about 2010. Around that time gold is likely to skyrocket to over $1000-$2000/oz.

Builder- Lima Automotive Works

Cylinders - ( 4 ) 22 1/2 by 33

Weight - 1,098,540 lb

Steam Pressure -- 260lb

Fuel - 25 tons

Water - 25,000 gal

Dia. Drivers - 67

Tractive Effort - 110,200 lb

R.R Class - H8

I always enjoy the sound of these locomotives -- something stirs in the human spirit -- perhaps because they are so simple with all the accutrements of power where the whole world can see them. And -- each engineer seemed to have his own style with the steam whistle. The diesel never came close.

There are 2 UP Big Boys ( non operational ) at the St Louis Railway museum in Missouri. Worth the trip if you are in the area.

If you like operating locomotives, you might want to try out the Mt Washington Cog railway on the NH/Vt border in the White Mountains. Worth a trip -- though a little scary, given what seems to fall off on every trip up or down. And -- the view is spectacular if not foggy. Then there is the Strasburg Railway in Ahmish country between Paradise and Intercourse. In Calif, there is a little steam/diesel railway near Ft. Bragg -- forget the colorful name -- the 'Skunk' line, I think. Another in Bryson City in the Smokies about 15 miles west of Cherokee. Never been on the Narrow Guage Railway in the Grand Canyon, or the Reading 2124.

I have forgotten precisely which book it was, otherwise I would give a reference. In any case this is measure born of desperation. We will have ample advance warning before such steps are contemplated again.

If the EURO tanks, there will be a 'flight to safety' to the US dollar, and gold. So -- dollar and gold go up together. This is part of what happened to gold/dollar in 1993 when we had the European financial crisis, and England had to bail out of the European Union. The other part of gold going up in 93 was due to the fact that AG had no choice to expand the money supply to pull us out of a recession.

I forgot to emphasize that last part. AG is forced to expand the money supply now too -- and lower rates. Unfortunately the inflationary aspects of this action are not as clear as they were in 1993. Now, if AG does not expand the money supply fast enough, deflation will nail us instead.

So -- after all that, all you can do is watch trends carefully, and trade accordingly. No hard and fast rules -- the chop is too big out there.

I think the best way of looking at this is that gold will go up if the US dollar tanks. Competitive devaulations through serial dropping interest rates will boost gold as well, unless deflation dominates the process. The EURO launch is likely to boost gold, either from US dollar sales and a successful launch, or with a flight to safety to the US dollar and gold if the EURO fails.

So -- for now all you can do is watch the US dollar, interest rates, commodity prices, etc -- and hope your timing is good.

After the last major market crash, or a clear return to an inflationary environment, then investment in gold/gold stocks will be a sure thing. Right now the Tsunami gold bug surfer has to be alert and nimble.

What really worries me is that we may be on the brink of another worldwide financial crisis, and panicked investors are very likely to throw out the good bathwater with the bad. I hope to jump back in at the bottom -- hoping for another v-bottom. But it is like catching a falling knife, isn't it.

Right now I am having doubts keeping my 10% gold stocks, 10% defense stocks position. Rest cash.

Also, someday the Brazilian people will eventually rise up and say 'enough', and refuse to subsidize the debts created by their political and business types. This may be the time.

That also applies to Mexico where there were congressional fistfights regarding who should pay for the $60 billion in USD that they still owe from the 1994 financial crisis. I have heard nothing about the IMF bailing out Mexico again.

I think there is a real possibility that we are entering another deflationary crisis similar to the Oct 97 one. This could be much more serious than the last one -- for the US and Europe.

The sudden nearly unanimous dropping of European interest rates today probably says more about the seriousness of what is happening than anything else. This does not look like what one usually does if you are to launch a strong currency. Good for gold if the markets don't collapse outright.

I wonder -- what will the European people buy if there is a financial crisis? German marks? No -- the mark will be pulled down by association with the weaker currencies. The US dollar -- perhaps not, this time, as that would weaken the Euro some more. Gold?

At the top of that takeover list is TVX Gold ( TVX ) on the New York

Stock Exchange. At 1 3/4, the stock is not far from a yearly low. The

company's stock market worth is tiny at $300 million. Doody says TVX

produces 500,000 ounces a year at a cash cost of less than $200 an

ounce. It has about 6 million ounces of proven reserves.

TVX also plans to build two mines in Greece, where mining costs are dirt

cheap. Doody estimates the Greek mines will produce 400,000 ounces a

year at a cash cost of less than $100 an ounce.

Alas, TVX needs money to grow, as much as $500 million. Banks have

told the company it needs another $100 million of equity and then they'll

finance the balance, Doody says. I think the whole package is so

attractive, that anyone who would joint-venture ( the Greek mines ) would

buy everything. I expect a bidding war.

Doody's other takeover possibilities include Greenstone Resources

( GRERF ) on Nasdaq, Canyon Resources ( CAU ) on the American Stock

Exchange, Venezuela Goldfields ( VENGF ) on Nasdaq and Crown

Resources ( CRRS ) on Nasdaq.

Thom Calandra is CBS MarketWatch's editor-in-chief.

http://www.insightmag.com/articles/story3.html

I doubt that there is any time in history that our military secrets are more easily obtained than now. No training necessary. Just a zerox machine accross the street, and a top secret security clearance approved without FBI review. And -- even better, whoever it is is not arrested for treason.

http://blacktusk.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/fxplot

( 90 day average over plotted )

The public has been blatantly misled. The official justification for the dollar's decline does not stand up; it fails to address the workings of foreign exchange markets. The speculative wave which has swept the World's currency markets is not limited to the former Asian tigers. It has also struck several western countries including Canada.

Bay Street has joined the speculative bandwagon. Canadian financial institutions including the chartered banks are routinely involved in speculating against the Canadian dollar. The amounts of money transacted by these institutions ( using the gamut of speculative instruments ) are

staggering: more than Cdn$55.4 billion ( US$36 billion ) are transacted daily through Canada's foreign exchange market, i.e. 32 times the amounts paid to Canadians in the form of wages and salaries.

Of this multibillion dollar turnover, a meagre Can$2.5 billion ( US$1.6 billion ) constitute bona fide merchandise trade. And 97 percent of forex turnover is conducted in relation to the US dollar indicating the extent to which Canadian banks are part of the US financial landscape.

Some 36 Canadian financial institutions including the chartered banks, trust companies, brokerage houses and foreign exchange dealers, are the main actors in the speculative assaults on the Canadian dollar. Only a fraction of this business is undertaken on behalf of the clients of

Canadian financial institutions.

The loonie has been transformed into the northern peso: the same deadly instruments used to destabilize national currencies in Asia and Latin America, have been routinely used by Canadian and American financial institutions in their assault against the Canadian dollar.

The implications are far-reaching. The speculative attacks against the Canadian dollar have led to the demise of monetary policy. Politicians have failed to acknowledge the existence of currency speculation and its deadly impact. The devaluation is seen as a blessing in disguise: a weaker dollar is said to contribute to job creation. Countervailing measures to avert the

slide were not taken, let alone the imposition of a code of conduct on Canadian financial institutions. Political inertia provided an unequivocal green light to speculators.

The surge of speculative activity against the Canadian dollar has resulted in a dramatic drain of Canada's foreign exchange reserves. In recent months, the Bank of Canada has entered into multibillion dollar contracts in the forex market in a failed attempt to prop up the nation's currency: the vaults of the Bank of Canada have been assaulted by Canadian and American speculators; billions of dollars of Canada's central bank reserves have been transferred into private financial hands.

Wall Street Creditors to the Rescue of the Bank of Canada

Bailouts by global creditors do not solely apply to Mexico, Korea or Indonesia. Heavily indebted as a result of its failed attempts to prop up the loonie, the Bank of Canada was obliged to renegotiate a US $6 billion bailout ( $9.2 billion Canadian dollars ) with a syndicate of Wall Street banks ( including Chase Manhattan, Citibank, Morgan Guarantee Trust, Credit Suisse First Boston ) . Politely labelled in the banking jargon as a standby credit facility, the bailout is intended to restock the Bank of Canada's foreign currency reserves. The Central Bank ( defined in our banking system as the Lender of Last Resort ) is obliged to replenish its reserves on

borrowed money, an absurd situation.

In the present context, the lenders of last resort are the Wall Street creditors of the Bank of Canada. Since 1991, reserve requirements have been lifted, the commercial banking sector ( rather than the Bank of Canada ) fully controls money creation. In other words, privately held money

reserves in the hands of Canadian and US financial institutions far exceed the limited capabilities of the Bank of Canada. Together with Canada's largest chartered banks, Wall Street ultimately calls the shots. The banks --through speculative trade-- have triggered the tumble of the Canadian dollar and the demise of monetary policy.

Ironically, the same institutions which contributed to weakening the Canadian dollar have been called in --under the standby arrangement to help the Bank of Canada prop up the loonie on borrowed forex reserves. The latter constitute a large share of Canada's central bank reserves.

Speculation against the Canadian dollar marks the demise of central banking and the inability of the federal government through the Bank of Canada to control money creation on behalf of society. This signifies that monetary policy is in the hands of the Bank of Canada's Wall street creditors.

The modest budget surplus of Cdn$3.5 billion dollars ( fiscal year 1997-98 ) , announced by the Minister of Finance in October, will barely suffice to service the Bank of Canada's outstanding debt with Wall Street which has resulted from the short-term speculative assault on the Canadian dollar. No doubt, the government is also anxious to use part of the surpluses of the employment insurance scheme to reimburse the Bank of Canada's Wall Street creditors.

Toward a Federal Reserve Bank of Toronto?

What is the future of central banking? With its hard currency reserves depleted, the Bank of Canada may become ( in the not too distant future ) a mere currency board in which the Canadian dollar would be pegged ( e.g. In a two to one split ) to the US dollar. Alternatively, the loonie would be withdrawn altogether; Canadian prices and wages would be converted into US currency. The loonie would be replaced by the greenback and the Bank of Canada would become a mere appendage of the US monetary system: the 13th regional Reserve Bank of the Federal Reserve system of which Canada's chartered banks would become the stockholders.

Dr. Michel Chossudovsky

Department of Economics

University of Ottawa

The public has been blatantly misled. The official justification for the dollar's decline does not stand up; it fails to address the workings of foreign exchange markets. The speculative wave which has swept the World's currency markets is not limited to the former Asian tigers. It has also struck several western countries including Canada.

Bay Street has joined the speculative bandwagon. Canadian financial institutions including the chartered banks are routinely involved in speculating against the Canadian dollar. The amounts of money transacted by these institutions ( using the gamut of speculative instruments ) are

staggering: more than Cdn$55.4 billion ( US$36 billion ) are transacted daily through Canada's foreign exchange market, i.e. 32 times the amounts paid to Canadians in the form of wages and salaries.

Of this multibillion dollar turnover, a meagre Can$2.5 billion ( US$1.6 billion ) constitute bona fide merchandise trade. And 97 percent of forex turnover is conducted in relation to the US dollar indicating the extent to which Canadian banks are part of the US financial landscape.

Some 36 Canadian financial institutions including the chartered banks, trust companies, brokerage houses and foreign exchange dealers, are the main actors in the speculative assaults on the Canadian dollar. Only a fraction of this business is undertaken on behalf of the clients of

Canadian financial institutions.

The loonie has been transformed into the northern peso: the same deadly instruments used to destabilize national currencies in Asia and Latin America, have been routinely used by Canadian and American financial institutions in their assault against the Canadian dollar.

The implications are far-reaching. The speculative attacks against the Canadian dollar have led to the demise of monetary policy. Politicians have failed to acknowledge the existence of currency speculation and its deadly impact. The devaluation is seen as a blessing in disguise: a weaker dollar is said to contribute to job creation. Countervailing measures to avert the

slide were not taken, let alone the imposition of a code of conduct on Canadian financial institutions. Political inertia provided an unequivocal green light to speculators.

The surge of speculative activity against the Canadian dollar has resulted in a dramatic drain of Canada's foreign exchange reserves. In recent months, the Bank of Canada has entered into multibillion dollar contracts in the forex market in a failed attempt to prop up the nation's currency: the vaults of the Bank of Canada have been assaulted by Canadian and American speculators; billions of dollars of Canada's central bank reserves have been transferred into private financial hands.

Wall Street Creditors to the Rescue of the Bank of Canada

Bailouts by global creditors do not solely apply to Mexico, Korea or Indonesia. Heavily indebted as a result of its failed attempts to prop up the loonie, the Bank of Canada was obliged to renegotiate a US $6 billion bailout ( $9.2 billion Canadian dollars ) with a syndicate of Wall Street banks ( including Chase Manhattan, Citibank, Morgan Guarantee Trust, Credit Suisse First Boston ) . Politely labelled in the banking jargon as a standby credit facility, the bailout is intended to restock the Bank of Canada's foreign currency reserves. The Central Bank ( defined in our banking system as the Lender of Last Resort ) is obliged to replenish its reserves on

borrowed money, an absurd situation.

In the present context, the lenders of last resort are the Wall Street creditors of the Bank of Canada. Since 1991, reserve requirements have been lifted, the commercial banking sector ( rather than the Bank of Canada ) fully controls money creation. In other words, privately held money

reserves in the hands of Canadian and US financial institutions far exceed the limited capabilities of the Bank of Canada. Together with Canada's largest chartered banks, Wall Street ultimately calls the shots. The banks --through speculative trade-- have triggered the tumble of the Canadian dollar and the demise of monetary policy.

Ironically, the same institutions which contributed to weakening the Canadian dollar have been called in --under the standby arrangement to help the Bank of Canada prop up the loonie on borrowed forex reserves. The latter constitute a large share of Canada's central bank reserves.

Speculation against the Canadian dollar marks the demise of central banking and the inability of the federal government through the Bank of Canada to control money creation on behalf of society. This signifies that monetary policy is in the hands of the Bank of Canada's Wall street creditors.

The modest budget surplus of Cdn$3.5 billion dollars ( fiscal year 1997-98 ) , announced by the Minister of Finance in October, will barely suffice to service the Bank of Canada's outstanding debt with Wall Street which has resulted from the short-term speculative assault on the Canadian dollar. No doubt, the government is also anxious to use part of the surpluses of the employment insurance scheme to reimburse the Bank of Canada's Wall Street creditors.

Toward a Federal Reserve Bank of Toronto?

What is the future of central banking? With its hard currency reserves depleted, the Bank of Canada may become ( in the not too distant future ) a mere currency board in which the Canadian dollar would be pegged ( e.g. In a two to one split ) to the US dollar. Alternatively, the loonie would be withdrawn altogether; Canadian prices and wages would be converted into US currency. The loonie would be replaced by the greenback and the Bank of Canada would become a mere appendage of the US monetary system: the 13th regional Reserve Bank of the Federal Reserve system of which Canada's chartered banks would become the stockholders.

Dr. Michel Chossudovsky

Department of Economics

University of Ottawa

Mike Sheller ( Kitco Koan ) ID#348257:

what is the price

of one man trading?

SoooooWooOOPPP!

Every european nation involved in the new European Monetary Union reduced their discount rates in a unilateral statement that took direct aim at the US Dollar.

The timing was of particular interest because Brazil had just admitted that it cannot nor will not comply with IMF requirements, thus exacerbating the impact of the announcement on the US $.

The overall effect of these actions will require further reductions in the US Fed Discount rate. Can you say Easy Al?

That will require further reductions by the EMU. Which will require further reductions by ...............

The market reacted negatively at first, driving the DOW down by 60 points until the dipsters rushed into the market to take further advantage of the Dow stocks which are only selling at about 30 times earnings.

Future historians will no doubt describe this as the beginning of the end of free commerce and free market activity. The US government has been rumored to have manupilated the domestic US markets for over a year and Alan Greenspan admitted as much on several ocassions in July when he stated that the centeral banks will do what ever it takes to control the price of gold.

It appears that the europeans have used Greenspans success as a model and we will see even more competition between the US and Europe as the launch of the EURO gets closer.

The unknown commodity is the asian countries who are rumored to be establishing their own currency possibly also backed by gold.

With apologies to interesting and crazytimes.

This happens all the time very rapidly.

Now if this happens to happen preciesly at the event horizon of a black hole, then one of the particals will be ripped away from it's mate. It's mate now all alone finds no partner with which to couple and become not. So it is, and it is outside the event horizon of the black hole so it is not drawn in.

hence there is radiation from the event horizon of a black hole.

but then I could be wrong.

A friend of mine told me today that he saw 20 calves sell, recently, for 20 dollars.The seller could not conceive of keeping,feeding,medicating,and selling them later at a profit.A story like this was the most difficult to understand that I remember from my childhood lessons about the Great Depression.Lessons told to me by my father and my grandfather are real.They do not exist in the text of a book or on the lips of a market analyst.They mean something.They happened to my people and might happen to me.

Good nite all, and may our Gods watch over us all.

Source: Kitco History of the 98 Financial Crisis ISBN 0-00000-0000-0