The Federal Reserve announced a short while ago that he money supply is growing at a

phenominal rate of 16%. This is the highest growth rate since 1982. However, I believe the money

being created today is being used to purchase financial assets instead financing businesses to

foster growth. We are seeing assest inflation. Stocks are way too overpriced.

Even as the economy slips into a recession, stock prices keep rising because investors ( mainly

baby-boomers planning for retirement ) keep pumping money into them.

This is what I call a real stock market bubble. It will end in disaster one day. People just keep buying

these overpriced stocks thinking they will be able to sell them at higher prices.

Stock market analysts are well aware of the problem, but are not giving the public at large ample

warning especially at this critical time. I hear constantly that investors will not panic when a correction occurs in the

stock market. They say polls show investors will not withdraw money out of mutual funds. I hear

this line so often it is like a broken record now. The reason they say so is that the market will

collapse BIG TIME should even a ***small*** group of baby boomers start to withdraw money from

mutual funds.

The irony of it all is that these same baby boomers MUST eventually withdraw funds as they

approach the retirement years. The the market will ( 99.999% chance it will ) collapse anyway.

Stock markets never go up forever. It's not as easy as Wall Street would like you to believe. It

isn't typical for money to be given away on Wall Street, but with the Dow Jones average increasing

at a 19% rate since 1982, it seems like it.

If you can time the market, great for you. But only a select few will be able to bail out in time.

My advice, make sure you have at least 10-15% of your investments in gold and gold stocks.

It seems that WJC does not understand what makes a great statesman -- despite his first class education. Isn't it interersting that he is being compared to Nixon, and that he does not come close to Nixon on foreign affairs, and what he has done with xxxgate is much worse than what Nixon ever did?

What WJC has is the ability to mould public opinion like a master -- and he still controls the press. We can have a liar for president -- everyone knows that -- and it is still ok. Amazing.

.................................................................

Can anyone explain to me why curriencies are bought and sold . Why it is so important to defend a currency from attacks of shortsellers?How does one recognize that a particular currency is vulnerable---- overvalued?

If Saddam has no weapons of mass destruction, and no delivery system even by foot, my argument still stands. If we attack Saddam unilaterally, instead of it being a local Arab matter we will rue the day.

It is unlikely the Arab nations will ever 'punish' Saddam like we are about to, as Arab public opinion is now in his favor.

There is a real possibility that if we start a skirmish with Saddam that we could trigger Saddam's lobbing something into Israel. This time Israel is far less likely to sit by and do nothing, given that they know that we do not have the resources that we had during Desert Storm. Or the support from other local nations.

I thought the Russians were moving to the gold standard. I guess they decided that they would wait a bit -- let the gold go a little farther --if they wait long enough a few ounces might be enough for all of their rubles.

I should not make fun of the situation -- imagine what it would be like if we were Russians. This is like Germany after WW I -- the perfect breeding ground for a Fascist or similar government. I do not like this at all. We may be seeing the beginnings of something that will haunt our children -- a brand of Russian government possibly even less palatable than the former Communist one. Ronald Reagan may not have done our children and grandchildren a favor. And Star Wars did not work, anyway. Perhaps the Russian anger at us for creating this situation is partially justified. Just wait until the Russians start getting focused on foreign affairs again. How long did it take Hitler?

Donald: Have the Russians outlawed hoarding of American dollars yet? I'll bet that it is unenforceable, even by those who think they can do better than Yeltsin.

For all Gold bug Tsunami surfers -- Everyone looking over their shoulder at mainland China, Brazil and Mexico? Since Brazil is in the limelight, I would guess that the next big financial shock, if it comes, will be elsewhere. There must be a Murphy's law variant that surprises tend to come from sources least expected.

I certainly took to heart Nick@C's comments yesterday ( I think ) about goods for sale in Australia at 10 cents on the dollar. China and other countries have excess capapacity in certain goods - we have survived the computer chip bust.

We are told that Brazil is in pretty good shape with the attention of the IMF -- the markets think so. But -- I would like to know why automobile purchases in Brazil are down over 40% if this is so. Around 450 of Fortune 500 companies are heavily invested in South America -- and we hear that 'US?' automotive sales by GM, Chrysler, Ford, etc are better than ever. Perhaps the slump in South American auto sales has not hit the official balance sheets. When it does -- we may have some commotion in the markets.

Comments, anyone? We gold bug Tsunami surfers must all stick together. I have no intention of being part of another Oct 97 wipeout, even if that means another opportunity to buy gold at fire sale prices. Not too many fire sale shocks left, IMHO -- clear sailing ( surfing? ) after that.

Sharefin: Any sign of Ping III, or son of Ping II?

argue that sweden is the most advanced nation on earth, and it is a socialist democracy. i lean towards a compassionate capitalist democracy, but i would maintain we are still early in our evolution, so who knows what the right mix is of political and social systems....

I do. Freedom is the best solution, and libertarians/anarchists are the ones who understand that. The Republicrat party has monopolized the ballot box in this country for most of this century, by rigging the election laws to favor themselves, but their time is coming to an end. Y2K will take all of the current parties down along with their creature, the federal government.

P.S. I notice that you didn't answer my challenge to place all of those political positions on your one-dimensional circular chart. I understand why: it can't be done.

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/llyfr.html

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/government.html

Old Gold: Certainly we can inflate our way into the eye of a deflationary period, but everybody knows it's just gonna make it worse later *grin*. Better to let the markets work themselves out to some extent, and fix a small problem, than to manipulate yourself into a crisis for short term prosperity, in my opinion. The more fantastic the magician's tricks, the more curious people are about what's behind the curtain.

Date: Sun Nov 08 1998 10:25

SDRer ( Hello! Can't resist sharing some 'interesting news' re: currencies. ) ID#290172:

Copyright � 1998 SDRer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

There are currencies, and then there are GOLD currencies�

Play with this a bit- ........................

--------------------------

SDRer......you're heavy dude... ( grin ) .

away...to sharpen the lawnmower blade ( for real )

��chorebound.....then

@gogolf ( ing ) ( ! )

I am bringing golden-dimpled-golf balls to smack around up there too. With 432 dimples...........I've tried it with 482 dimples but the balls are just too lofty........perhaps I've got to 'adjust' the core a bit...............

got lead?

away...to the 'smith

��

don't touch the plasma coils 'bito.........it's a raunchy smell when that happens......smells like burnt seeds.........a major no-no in the ssm....

away....to prepare myself for the trip

��

go golf! ( ing )

I know that, however, the margin is less than in We all need to take all of our money out. I was just presenting some contrary arguments. BTW, I don't deal with banks, and my monthly cash flow at my Credit Union pretty much zeroes out ( what goes in goes out ) - not too much to take out or to loose. Just like for majority of poplulation ( which suppose to run to withdraw their money ) . Well, I can take it out and start sending my mortgage payments using money orders.

Standing in front of the bank with door closed? For how long? Day? Week? Month? Three months? That's what you should ask yourself if you are some source of income from your work ( in addition to money sitting in the bank )

@Mozel, I'm from Virginia! Sitting there now even, leaves are pretty.

@Cherokee, I likes the .380 Mac'rov.

@Bart's Policy, GO GOLD!

OK, your deposits. Do you really expect bank to have all deposits stashed in a bank vault? Now where the money for your ( and companies ) loans, mortgages, line of credits, etc. suppose to come from? If money sits in the vault is has no meaning.

Well, lets see. All of us take cash and we will conduct our business in cash. If all entities took the money out ( and paid all their obligations to banks ) there would not be the reason for banks � except for one thing, who is going to move money from end-point-of-sale to producer to supplier, etc.. Do you really expect a supermarket to deliver cash they receive from cash carrying citizens to all companies that have goods on supermarket shelves? � every day?

Do you expect all banks to fail? Well if that happens, I better mortgage myself well over my head because there won't be anybody left to collect on my loans. If only some of them fail, surviving banks will take over assets and obligations on deposits. Sure, some of the wealth will be redistributed, some of the money will be lost ( that's where FDIC is suppose to step in ) .

Remember that the majority of the US population has the following cash flow scenario with banks. Paychecks go in, some cash goes out, and majority of outflow from you account is in form of checks written to your mortgage companies. Car loans, grocery stores, etc. At the end of the month you break even. And that's what you should worry about in Y2K scenario. Go ahead, get some cash to carry your typical business transactions for a month.

Now, do you really think that Y2K will wipe out all records about your bank account? Come on ..We have computer failures every day and we don't loose it. That is the reason for daily back ups so we can recover it. Now, you will tell me how about all wrong transactions applied against my account, wiping it to negative balance. Sorry guys. It's pure accounting principle - debit to one account, credit to other account. Well, if everybody has money take out of his or her account, where that money ends?

Yet, we again take just one part of the system ( gloom where nobody wins ) , e.g.

- All of us will have money taken out ( but nobody's account will be credited )

- We loose our deposits ( but don't loose our obligations )

- Bank will fail ( but no other bank will take over assets and obligations )

- We all take cash out so we can go and buy, starting run on banks and eventual failure of the system ( but we expect the system go on and support the rest of the chain store-manufactures-supplier )

- Bank carry only 1.7% cash reserve ( but don't talk about that that is about max. of business transactions which can be conducted in cash, even in post Y2K scenario )

- FDIC can cover only 1.5 % of deposits ( but don't talk about the fact that most of the obligations will be handled not through FDIC but through take over by other entities )

I can go on. Again, I am not saying everything is fine, but this all of us are doomed and destined to loose everything tone is one-sided, not realistic, and does not describe complexity of the system ( just like Y2K ;- )

http:///history.leaserates.html

for a graph of lease rates vs spot gold prices vs forward rates

dating back to 1988 when leasing first began. You will find

the pattern interesting to say the least. There has never

been a spike in gold prices when lease rates were under 1% and

lease rates always spiked before spot did. Sorry I couldn't

upload this, but I think everybody should have a copy of this

graph ( s ) .

I am afraid they have only just discovered uranium.

Saddam is crazy enough to lob something bad in the direction of Israel -- for the 'Arab cause' -- even if it is his last action. If Israel retaliates, it will be different this time unfortunately. Iraq may not be the isolated nation of the Desert Storm period.

None of our conventional weapons can really affect him -- even the 'bunker busters'. I think only nuclear would get his bunkers, and that is certainly out.

If we have any sense at all -- we Americans should be letting the local nations deal with Saddam. Or wait until the threat is acknowledged by all. If you are right that Saddam has no weapons of mass destruction, and we attack Iraq because Saddam is our convenient target, then we will polarize even more Arab public opinion against us. Almost as bad as my predicted outcome.

To LGB, Bugal or whatever you are calling yourself these days, I have succumbed to your siren call and purchased the U.S. 1998 four coin Platinum Proof set, but only because I like the lighthouse, and I'm watching to see if ( hoping actually ) the seagull leaves a deposit on Clinton's head.

To EB, a thousand blessings on your head, may the Yen go your way, and I'm trying to help you with the Azucar ( stocking away sacks for Y2K )

To Greenstone Gold, do you know why Bill Clinton crossed the road? He heard the chicken was a good lay! Ach aye the noooooo!

Surely,they all have thought of it.