- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:58
aurator () ID#25490: - kiwi
ex? Andy Smith is ex? Must have missed the news, do you have a URL?
A friend has a scanner and we're scanning a couple of gold kiwis, stay tuned mate. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:55
EJ (aurator) ID#45173: - Steadman is the man for the stamp. As for coin engravings, I dunno.
I'll scan in the beer label once I finish soaking it off. Maybe we can make it the national beer.
Before anyone else takes a grab at any cabinet posts, I'll let it be known that I plan to run the Dept. of Alchohol and Firearms, among other things...
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:48
sharefin (Snipped from the web) ID#284255:
- - Found this on a Y2K Bulletin Board and thought it was interesting.
Eric Holland
Although there's not panic, there's worry. Which gets us to the biggest
question raised by the ZDNN/Harris Y2K survey: Given their abiding
concern, what are our survey participants likely to do in reaction to
the millennium bug?
Clearly, they plan to do something. An overwhelming majority, 78.8
percent, told us they plan to prepare themselves and their families in
some way. By contrast, only 21.2 percent said they wouldn't do anything
at all.
That's vague. Not to worry. We also asked our respondents to be more
specific. And their replies aren't exactly great news for airlines and
banks.
Here's a rundown of some of the more concrete steps they said they'd
consider:
62.4 percent would avoid air travel.
61.5 percent would withdraw money from a bank for financial institution.
58.6 percent said they'd purchase extra supplies, such as batteries and
candles.
55.8 percent plan to buy extra food.
45.8 percent plan to purchase extra fuel.
Although Y2K-caused computer glitches could screw up traffic and freeway
metering lights, the threat isn't going to keep many of our respondents
off the roads. Only 17.2 percent said they'd consider avoiding auto
travel.
Heading for the hills
And, apparently, there are not many survivalists in our survey group.
Only 17.6 percent said they'd gather their families to a central
location -- presumably home. Only 7.8 percent said they'd head for
hills, by relocating to a remote location -- as computer consultant Ed
Yourdon did by selling his apartment in the Big Apple and moving his
family to the mountain town of Taos, N.M.
The most troubling insight here has to do with the banks. When we asked
our respondents how much money they'd withdraw from the banks, 20
percent said they'd take out all their dough. And as we point out in an
accompanying piece on the banking issue, as few as 5 percent of a bank's
depositors have to withdraw their money to cause a collapse.
Finally, it appears Y2K may be a factor in the investment plans of our
respondents. Of those who invest in stocks, 62.5 percent said they're
more likely to buy securities in a company that's proven
itself to be 100 percent Y2K compliant. A mere 1.1 percent said
compliance made no difference to their investment plans.
----------------------------
Got physical GOLD? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:48
cherokee (@...horrible.legacy.for.our.children.......'klinton.window') ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved -
oliver stone has been hired by hbo to make a film
depicting the founding fathers as having had affairs
throughout their political carrers......
this to trivialize klinton's lies and perpertrate the notion
that is was/is acceptable.
they are going to trash the very individuals who gave us
the freedoms we have today....all to shore-up the
yellow house and klinton.....a barbarous act........and
on hbo soon....oliver stone..the film-maker, just out of the
clear blue, decides to produce this film.....yar...
the machine is working overtime to keep the disgracius erectus
in office.....he will fiddle whilst the world bursts into
flames around him...how fitting that hollywood should participate
in this endeavour.....slime of a feather flocks together...yar by gar.
consider the time he has left in office....IF he completes his
full term....
the wannabees around the world know their window of opportunity
has opened.....the time for action now...before the klinton window
closes....
'the klinton window'....as it shall now be called......closes in
y2k.....14 months max........WAR....and the total collapse of
equities...gold shall soar...along with chaos and flux.
the pendulum swings sharply into the pit....it is covered with ink
from the peopleo who were wrent asunder, as they looked at it
in wonder...
cherokee!;..hoping.for.a.volcano.in.downtown.hollywood....
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:48
kiwi (Andy Smith ex-UBS gold meister (short-horn blower)) ID#194311: - Now that he has been set free to talk....how much does he know about UBS gold loaning activities?
Are they enough to be terminal or....?
Speak to us Andy, we know you lurk here. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:47
sharefin (Mounting a Defense Against Millennium Bug ) ID#284255:
- - http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/98/10/circuits/articles/15geek.html
The news that 10 percent of the nation's top executives are stockpiling canned goods, buying generators and even purchasing handguns cannot be all that good. Are they worried about the Russians coming, the collapse of the Dow, a wayward asteroid?
3rd article down
------------------------------------------
This one is a must read for the Pollyanna's
-------
Summary of Oversight Findings and Recommendations
http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/y2k_report/Isummary.htm
------------------------------------------
FYI: Viagra, African Style
http://www.naturalland.com/hrbv/hrbnews/fyi.htm
If you are a man who has not found glory with the anti-impotency drug Viagra, then you should try the indigenous Zimbabwean version, Vuka-vuka. The traditional Zimbabwean herb is reputed to cure impotence among men. Vuka-vuka, a Ndebele term for wake-up, wake up is currently the most popular and top-selling drug in Bulawayo.
Those who use Vuka-vuka say the drug has no known side effects and is only needed to be taken once for it to work for the whole month. There are times however when women complain about the excessive sexual appetites displayed by husbands who drink Vuka-vuka every week.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:47
EJ (@All, but especially Gollum) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Excellent analysis, in support of the rattlesnake market theory...
Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide.
Only a few short months ago, it was commonplace for investors to believe that they could expect double-digit returns year-after-year, without risk. Now though, capital around the world is no longer seeking big returns but is just trying to avoid losses: fleeing to wherever the investor believes he can find a safe haven for his money. That, it seems, is in to cash and short-term government bonds. But now there is little by way of safety even there: if the mighty US Dollar can fall 13% v. the Yen in two days ( and 20% in two months ) , I do not think any single currency can offer anyone any refuge now. The idea ( at least in its simplistic form ) that in times like these 'cash is king' is a leftover from the days when currencies were backed by gold and silver. Today, there are no gold-backed currencies. Whatever currency you are holding, it could collapse.
http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/current.html
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:43
morbius (@Reify) ID#35757: - Odds for panic and ensuing meltdown BEFORE Y2K - 100%
It's like 'the take' here in Vegas. Technically, 'the take' is the percentage the machine holds back over the long run of play. Local Casinos advertize 99% return ( 1% take - yea right! ) . This can be measured. Say, in reality, it is 75%. That means you put in a dollar and get $.75, You put in $.75 and you get back $.60. Measured another way, ie. how much money the chump has when he walks into the casino vs. how much he has when he walks out - 'the take' is 100% So it is with Y2K. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:36
aurator () ID#25490: - NTEOTWAWKI
Excellent gold golfbug post!
What kinda irons you recommend to use these suckers on the moon? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:36
Squirrel (gagnrad - in the story they did try torching off the methane) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Regarding Mozel's radiationless arguments...
Though he may have some wisdom on some subjects - maybe even Gold...
I've been ignoring his blatherings about moonwalk fraud & radiation.
You cause me to go back and figure out what he was trying to say.
Before I start - Let's ask Prof. Mozel one question.
Why is Earth not a parched, toasted surface at a few hundred degrees Celsius?
Because it has reached an equilibrium temperature which radiates heat ( as on clear nights ) as fast as it comes in ( on a global basis ) . White clouds and ice contribute to an albedo which increases our reflectivity.
Unradiated heat - unless trapped in a perfectly reflective ( inside coating ) cocoon there would be no such thing as unradiated heat.
If an object has a temperature above zero Kelvin then it has heat
AND it will radiate at it's black body ( oops - sorry about the technical term ) temperature ( less inefficiencies due to texture, color, etc. ) . The key is to keep the absorption surface as cool as possible and the radiative surface as hot as possible.
I believe the space program tried metallic surfaces first under the theory they would reflect the heat. But anyone who has grabbed a bright metal tool which has been laying in the sun knows better. Typical of government they spent mucho money learning the obvious. White reflects much better - thus the rockets and suits were changed to white.
A refrigeration unit with a radiative coil could dump the excess heat into black space - which would present a temperature near zero Kelvin to radiate into ( actually a few degrees above zero due to leftover radiation from the big bang ) . Actually into is incorrect but close enough - radiation out with next to nothing in ( except starlight ) .
If that was not enough then venting water vapor would be very efficient
but a waste of valuable water ( likely only an emergency backup ) .
I could go on, especially if I re-read material available to me. But this IS a Gold forum. And jousting with Mozel is a waste of time since he will never be swayed from his beliefs, regardless of evidence or experience ( such as living on a cool planet ) to the contrary. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:33
aurator () ID#25490: - EJ
Is that Ralph Steadman making the news again since the Fear & Loathing film was released? Always been a fan of his. I don't know if you've ever seen his illustration on the cover of the English edition of Funny MOney I'll see if I can scan it in a little while.
Do ya reckon he'll do stamps? How about a Steadman design on Kassim Bono's gold coin issue?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:23
EJ (aurator) ID#45173: - Let's do it! I'm drinking a Flying Dog Classic Pale Ale. Label art by none other than Ralph Steadman, and the beer ain't bad either. Good as any for hatching a nation.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:21
NTEOTWAWKI (@gagnrad) ID#390337:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gold golf balls and such. Let's see…
One regulation PGA golf ball has a nominal diameter of 1.680
The volume being equivalent to 1/6 Pi diameter cubed = 2.48271 cubic inches
The specific gravity of pure Gold is 19.03
Water at 60F ( nice balmy spring day to go duffing ) weighs out to 8.32823 pounds per gallon
One cubic inch is equivalent to .004329 gallons
2.48271 * .004329 = 0.010748 gallons/golfball
8.32823 pounds per gallon of water * 0.010748 gallons/golfball = 0.08951181604 lbs of water per golfball volume
sg of Au 19.03 * 0.08951181604 lbs of water per golfball gives us 1.7034098592412 pounds of gold per golf ball
1.7034098592412 pounds of Au * 16 oz/lbs = 27.25 oz of gold per golf ball
Take the low discount, never to be seen again in modern times price of gold at $300 USD
Then your gold golf ball will cost you $8176.37 USD ( plus tax, tags and dealer prep )
Gives new meaning the word PING!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:18
EJ (Consumer confidence correlates directly to age group. Gee, I wonder why...) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The composite reading, which includes both an assessment of current conditions and expectations of future conditions, has declined to 126.0 from June’s peak of 138.2. Consumer confidence has dropped most for households headed by someone older than 55. The confidence measure for this age group fell by nearly nine points in September. Interestingly, the gauge for those aged 35 to 54 has barely budged. By income, confidence has fallen sharply for households earnings between $15,000 and $35,000. These households may feel most vulnerable to a slowing in economic conditions. Confidence has also eroded for households earning more than $50,000, those most affected by eroding equity prices.
http://www.dismal.com/economy/releases/consumer.asp
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:15
aurator (Cry Freedom! Cry Independence! Sing Kassim Bono's National Anthem with Pride) ID#25490:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~KASSIM BONO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The free and newly independent island state of Kassim Bono was created over several jugs of Speights Best Bitter in the Captain Cook Hotel, Dunedin one autumn evening a score of years ago.
Those present can’t remember whose addled brain spawned the brave new island state, whose lips first begat her proud name, nor which alcoholic beverage was her sire. For an idea whose time has come will spread like wildfire across the deserts of desperation. That’s what happened to Kassim Bono that magic evening, the fires of freedom scorched the wastelands of impending winter and, to a man, in unison, those present repeated her name: Kassim Bono.
The founders of this fledgling nation immediately swore each other to secrecy and vowed to meet on the morrow in a small crofter’s cottage in the secluded hills above the peninsular at Waitati.
On that blesséd day and during the many that were to follow, our freedom loving conspirators developed a plan to generate a few buckaroos for their collective pockets, while having a great deal of fun and drinking a great deal of p!ss. In that wind-swept cottage of legend, they drank only home brew they themselves made: “Burton Bitter”, “Parish Priest Stout” and “Amber Widow”, their habitual sacraments.
It is suprisingly easy to mint a stamp, once you have a design. The raw material, paper, as our gobmints know, is very cheap. This makes for a respectable margin, a very respectable margin indeed in fact it is good business. Our privateers suffered no shortage of creative talent. A complete set of five stamps celebrating “Independence Day for Kassim Bono” was sketched, drawn, painted, perfected and perforated. Naturally, each stamp in the set had a different denomination. Funny how two pieces of paper of identical dimension can be worth different values.
Others were busy creating a history of an island nation, from its volcanic birth millions of years ago into an uninhabited Pacific Ocean right up to the “recent” proclamation of Independence from Gt Britain with whom relations remain cordial. Bureaucracies were built; island customs described; landmarks were given legends and heroes were worshipped.
Others were creating a multinational stepping stone bridge to skip the incoming dollaros around the world a couple of times. Playing ducks and drakes with other people’s money is fun and good for your financial health.
Stamp dealers and collectors around the world were contacted with the offer of mint sets and first day covers. Special Presentation Packs were printed to house the stamps. The dealers were hot with the idea.
When Captain Cook pirates set sail, they do it in style.
The Great Day arrived. Independence for Kassim Bono. A flag waving red letter day! A public holiday! Out went the stamps. In flowed the dollars. Paper of one kind was swapped for paper of another kind. In two weeks our swashbuckling heroes netted several hundred thousand dollars. It felt like a king’s ransom. It bought a lot of Speights and motorbikes, swimming pools and burgers. It was a very fine scam indeed.
Then, one day, the Kassim Bono embassy fell silent. Letters remained unanswered. Pleas for more stamps were ignored. It was as if the island of Kassim Bono had disappeared from the face of the world. Perhaps it did. For you’ll never find a reference to Kassim Bono in any of the world’s atlantes or charts.
The Free and Independent Privateers of Kassim Bono set sail for other lands and new opportunities.
How do I know this? Well, dear reader, I don’t, it was just a dream that’s never been had, a story that’s never been told.
I hope noone complains this post is diatrite.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:13
Boardreader (NTEOTWAWKI, aurator, All: The National Museum of American History, at) ID#20767:
Copyright © 1998 Boardreader/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
17th & Constitution, contains one of the finest coin collections in existence. It is located on the third floor.
Although the physical appearance of the displays has deteriorated through neglect ( along with the price of gold? ) , the coins on display are an amalgamation of donated collections which, each by themselves, are incredible.
The original 1849 $20 San Francisco proof ( of two ) . Complete sets dating back to American colonial times. Other sets dating back to the Mediterranean 6th century BC, back to the 'electrum' coins of gold-silver alloy.
Any goldbug visiting DC must not miss this one!
Bob in DC
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:13
Reify (My Hat's Off to the NEWCOMER--) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:12
morbius ( Leonit meteor storm ) ID#35757:
Copyright © 1998 morbius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Before we get carried away, some ‘back of the envelope’ calculations.
Now that's the reason I never did well in physics, or math,
and always had a lot of respect for those that had a handle
on those subjects.
Now, sir, or madam, could you do some similar calculations
with regards to prices of, say, gold, and tell us what are
the odds for an up-move from these levels over say the next
few weeks?
Or more impotantly, how much success can we expect from the
efforts of those involved with why to kay, especially the
utilities, as without them, the others are dead in the water?
Thanks, and looking forward to your replies. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:10
Caper (Walking On The Shoulders of Midgets) ID#300202: - Good background info/intelligence-Holy Blood, Holy Grail & Messianic Legacy Shaping the world as we speak. Cherokee's url-Pierre Trudeau & his marriage to a Sinclair ( blueblood ) orchestrated. Watch for Justin Trudeau!!!!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 23:03
silver plate (IMF funding) ID#234253: - All Kitcoites: Send Newt Gingrich an email. Tell him what you think about him caving in to the Stupidocrats.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:55
cherokee () ID#288231: -
more....
http://www.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/bildpres.htm
your eyes will scream....it will seem as though a dream. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:46
EJ (Global crisis forced Congress to fund IMF-Gingrich) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I am not prepared to take a riverboat gamble and decide let's just eliminate the IMF funding and see how things work for the next year. And by the way, if the world economy crashes and we end up in a great depression. That would be an interesting experiment.
By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON, Oct 16 ( Reuters ) - With financial markets around the
globe in turmoil, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Newt Gingrich
said on Friday the Republican-led Congress now had little choice but to
replenish International Monetary Fund reserves.
``I am not sure this is a very good time to take a big gigantic gamble with the world economy,'' the Georgia
Republican told lawmakers on the House floor, explaining why Republicans had reversed course on the issue.
Gingrich and other House Republican leaders had for months attacked IMF economic policies in Asia and the fund's
$23 billion bailout for Russia. They said U.S. funding would be squandered by the IMF and disparaged IMF
Managing Director Michel Camdessus as a ``French Socialist.''
Nevertheless, congressional leaders agreed this week to hand over $18 billion to the Washington-based lending
agency to refill coffers depleted by multibillion-dollar bailouts for Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.
House and Senate Republican leaders agreed to include the IMF funding in a catchall government spending bill,
which both houses are expected to approve early next week. President Bill Clinton must then sign the bill into law.
In exchange for the $18 billion, the Clinton administration has promised to work with other nations to push through
changes in the way the IMF does business.
Under the agreement, the IMF would be forced to charge some crisis-hit countries more for loans, to demand quick
repayment on some loans and to give the public and Congress more information about its policy decisions.
The agreement was a major victory for the White House, which has been desperate to shore up confidence in the IMF
at a time when world markets have been rocked by the worst financial crisis in decades. The storm has battered Asia
and Russia and has spread to Brazil and other Latin American nations.
``We worked and worked and worked for eight long months until finally we were able to persuade the Republican
majority to join with us in funding America's responsibility to the IMF so that we can protect the American economy
and fulfill our responsibility to stabilize the global economy,'' Clinton told reporters on Friday.
Congressional leaders said their requested reforms would make the IMF more accountable. Higher interest rates and
shorter repayment periods might also discourage countries from lightly turning to the IMF for bailouts.
``A year ago it would have been impossible to have imposed these kinds of genuine, deep, real reforms,'' Gingrich
said.
He said it would have been ``irresponsible'' to withhold the IMF funding any longer.
I am not prepared to take a riverboat gamble and decide let's just eliminate the IMF funding and see how things work
for the next year. And by the way, if the world economy crashes and we end up in a great depression. That would be
an interesting experiment.
``We have to fund the IMF because we are the leader of the world. No one else can lead the world,'' Gingrich added. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:46
Caper (Bully) ID#300202: - Methinks u r in Toronto Metro area. Statement issued by Ontario Hydro
translated to -We are Y2K ready but we are not sure if it will work. There could be problems. Two remaining generators at one of our two Wal Marts. Kindly remit cheque with 15% HST - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:44
cherokee () ID#288231: -
http://www.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/bild.htm
read on. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:41
cherokee (@....cfr...nwo...tlc......and. more..........much.more.) ID#288231: -
believe in the nwo?
http://www.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/quinn.htm
read this and realize things are not as they
appear. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:35
Obsidian (EJ: I still think B of A got more than their fingers burned.) ID#237299: - .
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:30
EJ (Chicken man) ID#45173: - Thanks for the encouragement. I'm pleased to have you here as well contributing your view of things.
I'm still looking for that dirty little doo-dah that's kicking around out there someplace, the motive for the sudden -- you might say panicy -- rate drop. Off to search some more...
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:29
OLD GOLD () ID#242325: - Anyone know what OLDMAN is doing these days?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:24
Caper (Ironic) ID#300202: - Dog tag chip scheduled for 2000. LGB wake up-it's here. Just don't take it on the forehead. Take it where the sun don't shine.Grin.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:19
gagnrad (Greenstone Gold re topics, Squirrel re clathrates, all re portfolios) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Haggis, I have it from the souce, Bart himself, from his post to the food fighters earlier this week, that this is a golf discussion group! With that in mind, I wonder if there would be a market for gold golf balls ( for display purposes only ) and if so could someone out there calculate the weight and cost of such an entity. Not playing golf I don't have a clue as their size.
One idly wonders whether such artifacts would be immune from government seizure or would they be sized as gold or worse yet seized as 'indiginous art objects of cultural value'? ( see enclosed modern antiquity pic )
Squirrel, your eruditeness amazes me. To actually meet someone who understands the clathrate risk boggles the mind! ( 8-^ ) ) Perhaps you will explain to me in layman's terms that I can understand how when I went into the altitude chamber during my military training that I didn't immediately fry from all that unradiated heat? According to our friend Mozel, such would have been the natural fate of one so exposed.
All, so not one of you ladies is willing to conjecture as to what is the optimum portfolio for the next 2 quarters? Shame
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:17
Caper (@Bully- U say Y2K no problemo. ) ID#300202: - Federal MP say Yay Problemo. EMO ( Emergency Measures Organization ) is co-ordinating. On another topic-local Wal Mart only have two gas generators remaining. Cannot get anymore. Asked why-STORMS IN THE U.S.
Again-just heard again-but-with this spin. Dog tags go digital-will we all be wearing them some day? Bully-wake up.
Marc of da beast. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:16
James (Then again--Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel--so disregard my ) ID#252150: - previous post. I sometimes enjoy putting people on. I wonder how many thought that I was serious about measuring the velocity of the golf shot on the moon? I think that even the mighty Mozel was a little perplexed.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:14
kiwi (Boom bust as natural as evolution itself?) ID#194311:
Copyright © 1998 kiwi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Many scholars will say that boom-bust business cycle is a bad thing. Why should a cycle that has it roots in nature, e.g. bouts of extreme weather
bring feast and famine since time immemorial, and is closely linked with the evolution of technology be considered bad? Is this not just a mindset derived from Greek/Western thinking that such events are either good or bad? Within a more holistic philosophical framework a boom or a bust is equally valuable. The boom times achieve great collective projects, cities, infrastructure, internet. The bust weeds out the evolutionarily weak of spirit, mind and body so that the human race will go on stronger for the experience.
The coming bust and depression cycle, which has now made itself plain for all to see, will only ruin those who cling to a Western way of thinking that the good times can go on for ever. Do not be afraid of the coming challenging times, they are full of opportunity.
Mother earth and the universe are impervious to us meaningless billions of humans scurrying around on this planet, and the cycles connected with these forces proceed regardless. After the mess of a myriad of bankruptcies, lawsuits, broken promises by one and all, there will be a few hardy souls left standing to begin anew.
Wouldn't you like to be one of these?
Your genes will form the basis for a new generation.
GOT GOLD? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:14
NTEOTWAWKI (@mozel , the never ending thermodynamic equation thread.) ID#390337:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Is there such a thing as an infrared telescope? Of course there is. You can choose materials and coatings ( Au, gold ) and layer them on low thermal expansion quartz or glass. These coatings will reflect the infrared energy with minimal absorbtion. These same infrared coatings are applied to metal surfaces as well. Plus the spam in the can is a cylinder and cone arangement which allows you to perform a rotate on the axis maneuver to not have a hot soak on any one area. A bar-b-que spit in space as it were. When the hot portion is rotated into the near zero degrees Kelvin background space ( pretty damn cold ) , most of the hot energy is reradiated back. Second subject is the insulating properties of various layers of material which have extremely low thermal conductivity properties. Take a look at that EL8 32 layer suit the astronauts on the Moon wore. Teflon/dacron/neoprene/mylar/aluminum/cotton, makes you wan't them to go back there so you can go long on DuPont % ) And get this, the helmets are coated with GOLD!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:10
James (Aurator@Perhaps you misunderstood me. I was referring to the politicians ) ID#252150: - not the drug dealers. I would'nt consider that to be fascism. IMO it's patriotism.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:09
Cowgirl (Louis Rukeyser----Kitco lurker? Dear Mr. Rukeyser, I see by the comments on your show that you ) ID#34191: - are a Kitco lurker. You said that when AG dropped the rates in such surprise it must mean that things are worse out there than we thought and I know I heard that HERE first. Then you said that all the global economic problems mean that GOLD WILL GO UP........ this is a recording. Cute, Lou, really cute. I ROTFLOLPMGO. Move over Leno, this Rukeyser is SO FUNNY it hurts.
Sincerely,
Cowgirl / W$W fan
PS The site works great. Thanks Kitco.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:08
Caper (Paralell to FITP-oka Frog In The Pot) ID#300202: - Don't know bout other parts of N.A. - but- microchips in cattle in
Cape Breton. No B.S. Replacing brands. Frog asleep. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 22:00
Obsidian (666: Medical Info, hah! Makes it sound benign, doesn't it?) ID#237299: - Step right up Mrs. Gullible. Little Suzie will sure be better off with this new medical info chip-implant, don't you agree?
They'll start it in the general population the same way they managed to fingerprint virtually everyone; with the kids in shopping malls- using the same inventive story that it will help if they are kidnapped.
Good story though; goes for the mother's jugular. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 21:57
Chicken man (EJ-Keep it UP!) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Thanks for those URLS....Keep it up,because that is the ONLY way any of us can hope to Stay Ahead of the Curve ...The secret of the success of this site is that information flows abundantly...if we don't try to stay informed ,we are lost,,,each of you think about when you first were a lurker....from that day forward I think each of us has to admit that we all are just a little bit wiser ( not bud wiser! ) ....I don't know about anybody else,but I appricate it a lot when our own Kitco news hounds take their time to search other sites for these precious gems!!!...let's face it this is one of sites ( my vote says the BEST site!! ) where we can find out the part Tom Brokaw,Peter Jenings or Paul Kasanga did not tell us ( or never will tell us ) ...come on now really,...do any us beleive that the boob tube will ever lay the cards on the table and tell about,lets say for instance The Rest of the Story ...HA..fat chance!!
So may the news FLOW....GO News Hounds....What's that that daddy use to say...A hungry dog hunts better!......Arf Arf...
Just a thought...Chicken man... - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 21:41
Caper (666) ID#300202: - Just heard CTV news preview ref U.S. Medical info/micro chip/dog tags.
One more drink & gone to bed. Hope to read in detail in the A.M. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 21:24
EJ (Got a copy of Socialist Worker handed to me in town today) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Actually paid $.50 for it. What, it's not free? I asked. No, there's a $.50 donation, said the college kid, who looked like he just got back from a track meet. Aren't socialists supposed to look working class?
Anyway, cover headline is, Bill Gates' fortune up to $58 billion
It goes on to point out from UN data that the combined wealth of the world's three richest men ( Gates, Buffet, and Allen ) is equal to the combined economic output of the world's 48 poorest countries. The world's 225 richest are worth $1 trillion, the same as the poorest 1/2 of the world's population. That's 225 rich guys are worth the same as 3 billion poor folk.
Cool.
The paper does a good job of covering the LTCM debacle as, The day the system almost collapsed and actually understated the true risks. They complained about how the gummit bailed out the fat cats ( several such quaint terms were used in most of the articles ) . Another article describes how the IMF comes in not to save a country but to preserve the capital of the wealthy. All true enough.
Reading this rag, you'd think you were on Kitco. Are we sure we aren't just a buncha socialists posing as libertarians? I mean, nowhere in this rag do they suggest the government ought to be taking care of folks, just that they bail out poor folks the same as rich. Maybe the socialists are putting an anti-gummit spin on their ideology.
I know that's a lot to infer from one copy of one newspaper, but I don't plan to donate to any more of them.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 21:15
mole (ERLE: a few more hints) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - one or two other things: you should consider subscribing to the northern miner. i also like juniors which are honest companies and which have both reserves and good exploration potential; and i like to invest in companies who are exploring good districts ( i.e. carlin, voisey bay and a lot of south america ) . most of the money i have made over the years has been through majors with wts in an up mkt, or with a good exploration hit. however, you have picked a good time to invest because we seem to be at the bottom of a cycle. a rising tide lifts all boats. just remember to take some profits and let some of your hits run. A couple of years ago arequipa went from pennies to around $36 bucks or more and we kind of knew ahead of time it was probably going to do well.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:54
Tantalus Rex (Darn, I have to sign off .... ) ID#295111: - Ciao for now!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:53
Caper (AMERICA THE BEAUTIFUL) ID#300202: - Tony Bennet sings the captionally noted in lieu of The Star Spangled @ Game # 1. And I was sad when we stopped singing Oh Canada in school. Can't remember the words anyway.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:48
Tantalus Rex (@Erle) ID#295111: - Erle, saw your post from last night now. I had signed off for the night. I got burnt too many times on Junior Gold Mining Stocks so I'm avoiding them this time around.
I think with the juniors, you have to diversify. With the large gold miners, you can stick to one, two, three companies and play it safer.
It all depends on your risk reward ratio, I guess. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:43
Tantalus Rex (Another FLECKENSTIEN gem ....) ID#295111:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus Rex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - An excerpt copied from ...
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/
We know that the Fed intervenes in the currency markets. We know that it intervenes in the fixed-income markets. We know that other governments intervene in the gold markets. And now we know that the Fed intervenes in the stock market. Once you begin to step in, there is no turning back - you have to keep going. So now the Fed is in the business of manipulating all markets. I don't think they are quite big enough but in time the markets might call the Fed's bluff.
Why did the Fed do this? Obviously some big banks are in big trouble, whether it is Citigroup ( CCI ) or Bankers Trust ( BT ) or whoever. What's so outrageous is that Greenspan created the moral hazard that allowed the banks to get into this predicament. He did it by bailing out Mexico ( really Wall Street - see Fiasco by Frank Partnoy, a book we have recommended before ) , and by bailing out banks the last time in 1990-1991. The reason they were in a jam in 1991 was because he provided too much liquidity in the late 1980s. This allowed the banks to make a lot of junk bond loans ( HLT - Highly Leveraged Transaction loans ) and too many uneconomical commercial real estate loans.
This guy's tenure at the Fed consists of allowing the banking system to get overextended ( by making stupid loans ) , then bailing it out and creating an ever-bigger bubble - and a greater moral hazard - each time. The Long-Term Capital bailout increased the moral hazard again.
Next the Fed says it isn't going to ease, and it eases at a time
that is guaranteed to produce an epic rally in the stock market ( 5
percent in five minutes ) .
Ultimately we will see the dollar weaken and the gold market rally.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:36
aurator () ID#25490: - mozel 2000
I could live in a land like that.
I could really live in a land like that.
A land of the free
and home of the brave.
indeedy.
Which is why, I guess, I'm just crazy enough to think we *can* mint our own coins.
Coming up, a brief unhistory of kasim bono.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:25
mozel (@NTEOTWAWKI) ID#153110: - If objects in space absorbed radiated heat absolutely without radiating themselves, their temperature would rise to a lot more than 245F. Is Hubble in earth orbit or contantly exposed to sun ? How would you propose attaching a heat sink to a human being ? Drawing conclusions about people in space from the operation of equipment in space is like saying its OK to go into Chernobyl because the robot survived.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 20:00
mozel (@Just in case anybody didn't hear, you have to have people passing gold coin) ID#153110: - from hand to hand in their pursuit of happiness in order to be able to own land and other things absolutely. And have constitutional states.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:55
mozel (@ERLE) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Government enforces ownership of the right to use land. And vehicles. And any other thing that is registered. I guess that includes securities, too, doesn't it ? ( Overlooked that before. ) Subject to their endless rules and regulations and fees. I agree the government here is National Socialist or fascist, but in addition all ten planks of the Communist Manifesto are statuatory law of the land by Act of Congress. And we have a Sovereign over us by way of English statuatory common law in court decisions. So, the kind of complete ISM mess are we in just exactly kind of defies one word description. The government appears to me to be infected with one or more strains of every political disease known to man.
There is nothing wrong with a committee of vigilance so long as those suspected are brought before a judicial officer and charged and tried. That is how common-law Law is administered and enforced. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:41
ERLE (NTEOTWAWKI, Got it ,thx) ID#190411: - I'll check it out later. ....Must go now.
Happy Trails..... - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:36
ERLE (aurator, Is it menorah?) ID#190411: - .
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:32
aurator () ID#25490: - Erle
What i mean is, the museum is on the net! thanks NTEOTWAWKI - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:31
ERLE (aurator) ID#190411:
Copyright © 1998 ERLE/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gianni D. said it well.
What gets to me is the incessant reduction of the God given rights of freemen, all in the name of the War on Drugs.
Newly enacted legislation in merka allows the fascist central gommint to view everything that you do. There is nothing to the word privacy anymore. All of this in the name of Keeping our kids safe.
The bastard leviathan is reading all of our words, now.
Test.......... Bomb........
I have just typed a word that will cause the beast to intercept this post.
The point is that the gommints allow all types of criminal activity to go on unfettered, yet monitor and punish the law-abiding types.
In the absense of a just system of law, I cannot fault the sentiments of James. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:31
aurator () ID#25490: - Erle
the museum is not on the www. They didn't even have a catalogue of the collection, there were some coins from antiquity, A thorough collection of modern English gold coins and dozens of nuggetts collected from the environs* by the donor a Mr Simon Cohen. One of the prizes of the collection was a solid gold candelabra. Forgive me, I do not know the Hebrew word for the 7 stick candelabra. It was especially manufactured from his gold to the specifications found in the ( ? ) on his death and is his memorial.
*delete the en before reading - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:26
NTEOTWAWKI (She That Cannot Be Ignored Has Beckoned. See You all Later.) ID#390337: - % )
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:24
NTEOTWAWKI (@ERLE this ones better) ID#390337: - http://www.sovhill.com.au/gold.htm snagged from Alta Vista
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:21
NTEOTWAWKI (@ERLE) ID#390337: - http://amol.org.au/
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:16
ERLE (aurator) ID#190411: - Is there a web site for your museum?
I tried to follow up on your golden pig that you got from Korea. The fabricator is a conglomeration of many companies. I couldn't nail down which one was responsible for that pretty porker, so I tried to e-mail the parent chaebol. Upon hitting the send command, all that I got were javascript errors. ( sort of like corresponding with South African companies. )
Do you know which company is the fabricator? I saw that there were other figurines that they produce. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:15
tolerant1 (TYoung, Namaste' back at ya...gulps and puffs...) ID#31868: - have to run...putting the suspension in some Italian Kit Car...I have no clue...Hope your day is great...
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:12
morbius (Leonit meteor storm) ID#35757:
Copyright © 1998 morbius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Before we get carried away, some ‘back of the envelope’ calculations.
Polar radius of the earth r = 6,378,000 m.
Surface area of the earth 4 pi r squared = 511,000,000,000,000 square meters
Cross sectional area of 500 satellites @ 30 ( very generous estimate ) square meters each = 15,000 square meters
Fraction of earth’s surface covered by satellites = .000000000029
Put another way, if you think of the satellites as the target, the earth as the paper, and the meteors as the bullets ( all bullets will hit the paper ) , then the paper has an area 34,482,758,620 greater than the target.
The chances of one meteor hitting a satellite 1 in 34,482,758,620.
The chances of 1,000 meteors producing a hit 1 in 34,482,758.
The chances of 1,000,000 meteors producing a hit 1 in 34,482.
The chances of 1,000,000,000 meteors producing a hit 1 in 34.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:12
Gianni Dioro (Erle, james, aurator Vigilantes) ID#384350: - You see that a bit here. Drug pushers get their kneecaps broken from time to time.
When the govt is involved in drug running, the laws are out there to do away with competition and to assure the supply of drugs, they do nothing to prevent drugs from reaching your town, schools and children. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:10
aurator () ID#25490: - Erle
me no slander. me don't see difference twixt committees of vigilance who, in James' words:
will take these bastards for a ride & blow them away.
and fascism. Would you kindly enlighten me?
Are you saying that is what you're gobmint does now?
Perplexed@Paradise
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:08
mole (gold stocks vs silver stocks) ID#350145:
Copyright © 1998 mole/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - it is interesting to note that whereas the gold stocks are making a pretty nice move, the silver stocks, both juniors and seniors are still right smack on the bottom. whereas i see a gradual moving up of gold and gold stocks - silver remains a mystery - low comex stocks and low stock prices. this could be a great play because it seems possible that silver could explode and the silver stocks would follow. last year when silver hit $7.50 junior silver stocks like united keno, san andreas royal silver, real del monte and even the big sleeper huldra just expolded, with united keno hitting $1.50 ( right now it is about .25 canadian ) . i don't know, but i keep a good inventory of silver stocks just in case. until i can figure out this apparent contradiction: low silver stocks AND low silver stock prices i am going stay in postion. i have always felt it is a good postion to be in when you are pretty sure you are on the bottom and you just do not know when things will go up, but are sure they are not going down. at least very much.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:06
EJ (@ALBRERICH, Squirrel, & Obsidian) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ALBERICH and Obsidian, the debt to asset ratio inversion indeed happened in Japan in the corporate sector because they rely heaviy on debt to finance industry, rather than equity as we do in the States, and equity financing of course has its own problems. But consumer debt was very low and the savings rate high which is one reason why they have survived so long. The debt/asset ratio inversion will happen to many, many individuals, my guess is quick rapidly and soon after the recession begins to create serious unemployment levels. Think about it. With savings rates so low, and the US economy is so reliant on consumer debt spending, can you imagine how quickly consumer spending will dry up as manufacturers compete for a rapidly shrinking pool of low-risk consumers that creditors will lend to? To hell with consumer confidence, what about consumer lender confidence? How can the gummit make banks lend to consumers to buy who can't pay back? And will consumers even want to?
Squirrel, the world is so different for these 20 year olds. I have a hard time imagining it through their eyes. Perception is experiential. They see the world as a safe place where just about everyone works and you always know where your next dollar and meal are coming from. I have friends whose children seem to have honed primarily a keen skill for shopping and spending money. How will they react to the new experience of having to use their wits to keep body and soul together?
-EJ
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:06
aurator (saliva) ID#25490: - NTEOTWAWKI
( try saying that with a mouthful of Graham crackers )
The curators at the Gold Museum in Ballarat are still wiping my paw marks off the display cases. Man! that was some collection of nuggets and coins.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 19:02
ERLE (mole) ID#190411: - Thanks. I signed up today for their service.
It is quite good from the little that I have seen. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:59
ERLE (aurator,) ID#190411: - Fascism is the system that we have now in the US, and Canada. The gommint allows ownership of the means of production, although mozel will rightly dispute this, but controls the usage, and steals most of the proceeds.
Vigilantism is sneered at and mightily suppresed by the central gommints because they will not tolerate any competition in their notion of justice.
Perhaps you should read some history on Commitees of Vigilance before you slander them.
James is right. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:56
NTEOTWAWKI (DC gold) ID#390337:
Copyright © 1998 NTEOTWAWKI/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Just got back from the Mall and visited the Museum of Natural History.
The lines were too thick with women to view the Hope diamond and all the set piece jewelery exhibits. Then out of the corner of my eye I saw it. With my lips pressed against the glass, the true goldbug came out. Dozens of placer gold specimens lovingly placed before me. After the guards tore me away from the display I found myself and my family heading towards the Air & Space Museum.
Inside was the Mercury capsule which never went into orbit, the Gemini capsule and Apollo which suffered the same fate. For as anyone who has studied physics knows that materials absorb heat absolutely and do not radiate back out. Funny how they manage to keep the CCD sensor in the Hubble Space Telescope near a few degrees Kelvin though. Why with all that solar radiation bombarding the craft for years we should surely only be viewing seens from Dante's Inferno, yes? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:55
mole (ERLE re sites for small mining stock info) ID#350145: - TRY http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/ - they have all the canadian stocks with tons of info. i use it constantly as i mostly invest in the juniors and pennies. with the bigger stocks i like wts and options.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:51
aurator () ID#25490: - James
I need learning. I know nothing of politics in your country. Where I come from this clip from your post implies that you want fascism in your country:
I think the only answer is a vigilante committeee that will take these bastards for a ride & blow them away.
I am confused@Paradise - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:46
aurator (Take me to a barroom, driver. Put me on a stool... (Tip of the Hat to one of Texas' bestballadeers) ) ID#25490: - jest ANOTHER dyslexic mexican, mois. I mean lexicon not lexican. Though probably lexican. Can't you?
diet right!
Dye a trite
Di et right
dire trite
which is, I guess, a diatrite?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:45
James (Canadian politicians@We have been cursed with some of the most corrupt & dumb ) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - politicians in the entire world. A lethal combination. Just this week in Vancouver the local TV stn ran 2 reports on Central American dope smugglers. There have been many cases lately of these vermin gaining entry to Canada as refugees & then getting arrested for selling Coke sometimes within 24 hrs of their arrival. They go to jail but are often released & on the streets again selling dope within 24 hrs. One of the B.C. Reform MLAs introduced legislation that would permit immigration to expel them immediately if charged with trafficing in dope. The feminatzi justice minister shot that bill down because it would infringe on their human rights. I think the only answer is a vigilante committeee that will take these bastards for a ride & blow them away. We can't trust our wimpy corrupt politicians to protect our young people.
No doubt about it-in B.C. the inmates are running the asylum - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:34
aurator (remove the en !!) ID#25490: - muse
9999 post. Brabo!
You even managed to add a new word to the kitco lexican
diatrite
and the more you play with the word, the more meanings you can wring from her willing sounds. Brabo!
go golf!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:25
TYoung (drunks...did someone mention drunks....I'm around...) ID#177105: - Especially for multiple personalities...w/out permission. But the gold calls have been good. Yes? Indeedyoooooo.
What an ego...no heart.
Tom - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:22
Obsidian (Has anyone else noticed a slowdown in server response?) ID#237299: - Greased lightning for the first inaugural 24 hours, then sporadic greased lightning, now I'm getting timed out again because of no response. ( sorry bart, had to ask )
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:21
snowbird (Don Wollanchuk--THE DOW CRASH IS OVER and GOLD to take off!!!) ID#220325: - The bottom is in and the up move has begun according to Don this a. m. on the Cdn Money Talks show. He states that gold will fly along with all gold stocks. The Vancouver stock exchange is to explode to the upside.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:19
Schippi (Fidelity Select Gold Charts) ID#93199:
Copyright © 1998 Schippi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts:
Six Year http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpmlt.htm
120 market days http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.htm
30 market days http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm30.htm
10 days Hourly http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
Overhead Resistance http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/gldresit.htm - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:18
skinny (? Question ?) ID#28994: - Was the gold standard in place when Roosevelt cofiscated gold.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:15
muse (RJ & drunks in the golden bar!) ID#346277:
Copyright © 1998 muse/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Delete the en after golden if you must. Short memory or what---- on this
very fine forum! Was it not RJ among the very few who called for 325 when
we were sitting at 360? and everyone wanted to run him out of town, oh yes, truth, first it pisses you off and then it sets you free, for the few able to gather wisdom from it. Drunken stupor galore in this golden bar anywhere from 5 to 30 000.00 an ounce,oh yes many ounces will be consumed
I am sure, shouting at the bartender IDCIBM for everybody!
I for one appreciate the more sober thoughts RJ has put forth in the past
and present and continue to value his contribution on this forum. I am
not interested in the intellectual diatrites put forth by some posters
in extraordinary lenghty posts [skip]. I prefer someone like RJ who shoots straight from the hips. RJ has never pretented to call the top
or bottom 20% but has given us consistently the 60% trading range.
If this is not good enough, let any man or woman come forth and match
these calls. Without RJ, this forum will be nothing more than an ostrich farm once again! indeed!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:14
Caper (Cdn Warships-both coasts-just a way of saying our Navy has two) ID#300202: - boats. Still have no Northwest passage covered. Will have to re-engage
the St Roch or maybe a Newfie lobster boat. Bully-re British Columbia
fiasco, interesting how directives went from the PM & the PMO normally
referred to as Prime Minister/Prime Minister's Office but was spun to read Phil Murray & Phil Murray's Office ( RCM Police Commissioner ) - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 18:14
Gianni Dioro (Goldfinger) ID#384350: - ...was on TV tonight. They said something like -
It depends where you buy and sell it.
You can buy it here for $35 an ounce and sell it in Pakistan for $105 and triple your money.
====================
I sometimes wonder if hypothetical ads in the paper wouldn't work. For example: Mapleleafs, $900 per coin, and see if any Y2K-worried people take up on it. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:54
John Disney (.. moles in space..) ID#24135: - .. it'll never fly ..
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:52
Bully Beef (Sorry Oak...) ID#260119: - I won't do it again. If you have gold you will be happy on Monday. I think.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:50
Bully Beef (While I'm on the soap box I just thought I would say...) ID#260119:
Copyright © 1998 Bully Beef/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Canada and the US propped up that lousy dicktatership in Indonesia and that lousy dictator SUHARTO and everything went to hell because of it. Bad US! Bad Canada! Let dictators rot in hell. Let democratic leaders who support them rot in hell! And let businessmen who lobby democratic leaders who support dictators rot in hell! And just so Americans know what I am speaking of... is that we had our version of 4 dead in OHIO in British Columbia when the RCMP sprayed pepper spray on idealistic children who spoke against SUHARTO while he was allowed in our country.We should have nailed his foreskin to a tree stump and pushed him over backwards. Well we didn't shoot our kids anyhow but... Go Gold!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:49
farfel (@HAGGIS...oops, correction to my previous post...) ID#339265: - ...make that about an extra EIGHT hour plane trip to good, ol' Aussie.
What exactly is the travel time, Hawaii to AU?
Thanks.
F* - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:49
Speed (History of Gold) ID#29048: - Vronsky has a good essay on the subject.
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest/history_gold.html
remember to remove the en from golden - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:46
Speed (Savage) ID#29048: - correction:
In 1834, the price of gold was raised to the $20.67 level which held until 1934 when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold to $35 per ounce. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:45
farfel (@GREENSTONE (HAGGIS)...how are you doing, Old Buddy?) ID#339265:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Long time, no speak. I miss our regular Q & A sessions, not to mention your unique, dry wit!
My wife and I will visit Hawaii for a week this winter and I am tempted to take an extra four hour plane trip to beautiful, exotic Aussie and look you up. I have some image of you as a Crocodile Dundee type and so my curiosity is killing me.
How have things been in the field? Any particular gold predictions?
As you probably know, I no longer make specific gold predictions. Every time I do, some guy named RJEALISTIC or LBGUGal immediately posts hundreds of my old posts designed to discredit my forecasts, not to mention my character. So, in deference to the constraints on bandwidth here at Kitco, I keep my predictions a little more nebulous in the hopes that the KITCO gold short patrol will leave me alone. You know how it is.
Anyway, keep the faith.
Thanks.
F* - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:45
John Disney (moles ..) ID#24135: - .. believe anything ..
.. and of course we spent the
money .. special effects aren't
cheap you know.. we can spend dough
and always could .. we just couldnt
put a man on the moon .. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:41
Speed (Savage) ID#29048:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Part of FDRs scheme was the exchange of gold at a fixed rate. After he was certain that all of the easily collected gold had come in, the government revalued gold upward. I think it was from 35 to 42 dollars per ounce. This revaluing by fiat made mining stocks soar and one of the big winners during the depression was Homestake Mining Co. It is interesting to note that many of the St. Gaudens and Liberty gold coins which are for sale today have come back from Europe, where they were sent to keep them away from the gangsters in government. They went out bullion coins and came back numismatic treasures.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:40
Oak (Bully Beef) ID#240241: - I agree with Greenstone, wish this site would stick to the topic of gold.
But the only way I know of to get people to quit talking about other stuff is to comment about it. Thus making myself one of those talking
about junk others have no interest in hearing ( becoming part of the problem ) . *grin* Alas, there is no cure except to leave & yet because
there is so much good information here, its hard to do. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:35
Bully Beef (Molson Gold... Thought I should say sumthin good about gold...) ID#260119: - Right snappin on DUDE! Got some? BETTER!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:31
Bully Beef (Dear Oak. Although I would like to agree with you I don't want to bring any unwanted attention to my) ID#260119: - self so... Waddaya gettin at?...SKYLAB...du du do, du du do, du du do do, do do, SKY...LAB,doooooo...
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:27
Oak (Greenstone) ID#240241: - LOL, a little biased are we?
Leonid Meteor shower
Moon Hoax
the Great State of Nevada
Melting Ice Caps
I sure don't remember talking about any of that, do you? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:26
Savage (just wondering......'AFTER confiscation, what will happen to the price of gold stocks?) ID#287223: - Or, do any of you guys know what happened to the price of gold ( shares )
stock ( s ) during the following year or two AFTER confiscation in 1933?
Also, will the public still be permitted to buy and ( perhaps more importantly )
SELL their gold mining shares?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:21
Greenstone Gold (Farfel...........) ID#428218: -
Have you been off making Wag the Dog...........
Haggis - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:20
Bully Beef (Caper... The RCMP have all got jobs with East Side Marios Food Franchise.) ID#260119:
Copyright © 1998 Bully Beef/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Pepper...Would you like some pepper? Pepper...No? Pepper...Yes? I'm the Pepper Man. The Parmesean man will be along later . Pepper Mam?
The thing about the RCMP being YK2 ready is prudent in my opinion.I don't think it will be all that bad. However if it is bad Maintnent le Droit. Remember we don't get the freedom and pursuit of happiness thing up here... only polite ,good government. I do know that you will be happy to know that I know that Revenue Canada is currently hiring YK2 helpers and those on contract are doing Tres Bon. What is your social security number? We have ways of making you talk! - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:19
Greenstone Gold (Oak.................) ID#428218: -
Sir, Please be informed that this is a GOLD discussion forum.
Your last two articles appear to be a biased comment against this forum, on a topic which has nothing to do with the price of eggs... sorry, GOLD !
So, GET BACK IN YOU BOX !!!!
Och aye the nooooooooooo.........
Haggis - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:18
Greenstone Gold (Oak.................) ID#428218: -
Sir, Please be informed that this is a GOLD discussion forum.
You last two article appear to be a biased comment against this forum, on a topic which has nothing to do with the price of eggs... sorry, GOLD !
So, GET BACK IN YOU BOX !!!!
Och aye the nooooooooooo.........
Haggis - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:15
Rob (RJ and Farfel) ID#412273: - RJ, I am even more dishartened that the US is becomming more facist over time that the fact that farfel thinks and says so.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:10
Oak (p.s.) ID#240241: - the polls show exactly the way I feel & most of the people I know. Every
one is sick of hearing about it. Slap his wrist, tell him he was a
bad, bad, bad boy & drop it. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 17:07
Oak (crap) ID#240241:
Copyright © 1998 Oak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - seems to me that the ones here who most like to see themselves in print,
when bored or no market action, let the sane part of their brains lapse
& let the crazy part spew forth. I'm assuming thats where all the moon
& clinton crap comes from. I still haven't figured out why those of
you who believe the moon walk was fake or hate Clinton because of the
tremendous wrong he has supposedly imposed on you don't go & create your
own sites so that others of your ilk can get together to spew your garbage. And by the way, Since most of the information about Clinton
came from government lawyers & government workers or employees, seems
odd to me that you believe that but not the moonwalk. So what you all
are saying is that you believe the government when it agrees with you
but call it a farce or conspiracy when it doesn't?
I could really care less about any of it. I feel tremendously lucky
to have been born in the US. I have always assumed that most politicians
used their officies to gain power & money. I have also assumed that most
of them are slightly crooked ( not evil, just taking advantage of opportunities that they can ) . Are all of you so naive that you think
Clinton has been the only bad boy president? I assume they all have
done at least as much or worse. We the people? just didn't spend 40 million dollars investigating each & every one of them. So please
quit acting like what he's done is going to destroy the nation. The
only thing that will come out of all this is that the TV watching public
had a little entertainment for a while. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:54
EJ (TYoung) ID#45173: - I cut-and-paste from Barron's all the time. I figure if they notice, which I doubt, or care, which I doubt even more, then they can complain to Bart and I'll knock it off. But I don't think a little goldbug site amounts to a hill of beans in this big ol' Internet to any commercial publication or site.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:53
farfel (@REALISTIC...thanks for the educational reality check...) ID#341227: - ...regarding silver. I am so flattered that you continue to single out Puetz and myself for your continued accolades.
It's nice to know I am as WRONG as LGB and RJ in my past silver predictions. I am in good company, right?
Thanks.
F* - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:43
mole (Mole and mole) ID#350145: - Please do not blame the other Mole ( Mole with a capital M ) for my political leanings. as mentioned, he seems more the libertarian type and very polite. i am definately a liberal. it seems to me every web site, and this one in particular, should have a token liberal and i was sort of born for the job. i am also, though, a hard core gold bug and very much appreciate the information and education i have harvested from this site. but when it comes to ideas regarding a moon landing hoax, i think i may be needed to say - balderdash.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:39
Obsidian (Mozel: thank you.) ID#237299: - I read Proclamation Executive Order 2039 and probably would have used the same language as the earlier post if someone had asked me to describe it in a sentence. That is why I was confused with your response. I'll suppose I'll crack the books a bit deeper now.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:31
TYoung (Barron's article...can I cut and pastew from a pay site?....) ID#317193:
Copyright © 1998 TYoung/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - October 19, 1998
Bourses in Americas Lead Global Rally on Fed's Surprise Rate Cuts
By Peter C. Du Bois
Stock markets in Asia and Europe were shut for the day Thursday when the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised traders by cutting two interest rates ( discount and federal-funds ) by a quarter-point. But bourses in the Americas had ample time to rally, and most did.
In local currency terms, benchmark domestic indexes rose 8.49% in Argentina, 6.66% in Brazil, 6.55% in Mexico, 4.79% in Canada and 1.41% in Chile.
The next day saw mixed results. Mexico was 1.75% higher Friday afternoon and Canada 0.19%, but other bolsas suffered profit-taking. Much of the rest of the world played catch-up Friday and closed strongly ahead. Measured by benchmark local averages, Indonesia rallied 10.74%, Singapore 9.26%, Hong Kong 8.99%, Thailand 8.14%, Philippines 7.04%, Japan 2.19%, Australia 2.12%, New Zealand 1.62% and Malaysia 0.77%.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow Jones Global Indexes | Emerging Markets | Global Stock Markets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At first glance, Tokyo's somewhat muted response is puzzling, all the more so in light of the final passage Friday of legislation to pump billions of dollars into the ailing Japanese banking system. However, it's not at all clear that sick banks will line up for handouts, nor is it known how their shareholders will fare in this scheme.
In Europe, which generally advanced Thursday ahead of the Fed's move, Finland tacked on 4.49% Friday, Italy 2.98%, Sweden 2.08%, Germany 1.76%, U.K. 1.52%, Netherlands 1.21%, France 0.83%, Switzerland 0.33% and Belgium 0.21%. In contrast, the dollar-based RTS index of Russian stocks, which had soared 38% through Thursday, gave back 15.83% Friday.
Nowhere to Hide From Asian Contagion
Looking ahead, William S. Kaye doesn't much care about one- or two-day rallies. The Hong Kong-based hedge-fund manager for Pacific Alliance Group is so bearish that, at a Grant's Asia conference in New York Thursday, his presentation was entitled The Approaching Nuclear Winter for U.S. and Global Equities.
Kaye believes that we're in the third and final stage of an Asian contagion that began in July 1997. In his view, the virus was caused by overinvestment in Southeast Asia and too much domestic debt. This led to rapidly falling investment returns, competitive currency devaluations, a mass exodus of foreign capital and collapsing regional stock markets. In its wake, massive domestic and external debt can't be serviced, creating enormous pressures to export deflationary problems to others.
The virus spread to other emerging markets, notably Latin America and Russia, resulting in substantial defaults and impoverishing most of the world's people. Now, says Kaye, 80% of the global population faces substantial wealth and income destruction and 40% of world gross domestic product is directly at risk of severe recession or depression.
The contagion was transmitted to the U.S. principally through trade and flight capital. The former brought lower prices, increased consumer spending and decreased household savings. The latter initially exacerbated a U.S. bubble, with inflows of cheap foreign capital fueling a surge in domestic borrowing and foreign speculation in U.S. equities. In Kaye's opinion, this euphoria masked a collapse in U.S. profit margins and rapidly falling profits, which are nonetheless overstated.
At the same time, the contagion reached Europe through its financial system, which is at risk from speculative froth linked to the launch of the euro in January 1999.
Next, the Asian virus infected the global banking system with the possibility of contract defaults. The upshot: Risk is being repriced sharply higher, money supply and credit availability are contracting abruptly, and U.S. and European equity bubbles are bursting. In reaction, consumption and investment spending are shrinking and U.S. and European central banks are engaged in coordinated interest-rate cuts.
In the third and final stage of this virus, the gains that global capitalism made in the 'Nineties are being reversed by capital controls ( Malaysia ) , market intervention ( Hong Kong ) and default on domestic debt ( Russia ) . In this climate, Kaye sees risk premiums for big multinationals remaining permanently higher, thereby depressing U.S. and European equity valuations.
In sum, he sees a protracted period of intensive illness for the global economy, with low economic growth, curtailed trade and higher risks. In this scenario, lower multiples of lower earnings equal lower stock prices.
Tom
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:24
mozel (@Obsidian) ID#153102: - ...President Roosevelt made the possession of gold illegal in 1933 and confiscated bullion held by U.S. citizens.
1. An American President cannot make the possession of anything illegal
2. confiscation by the federal is prohibited by Amendment V, which prohibits taking without just compensation.
3. who were U.S. citizens in 1933 ?
4. in order to become a part of the federal reserve system of banks prior to 1933, what did a bank agree to ? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:24
Squirrel (Scito - for more Kitco news credits and on Leonid disaster) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - See Auric's post on Oct 14 1998 05:33 which includes this url
http://newscientist.com/ns/981003/nspace.html
and his post of Tue Oct 06 1998 02:24 which included
http://www.cyberpath.net/leonids/
and MM's posts of Wed Aug 05 1998 12:52
for more Leonid info than I wanted:
http://medicine.wustl.edu/~kronkg/leonids.html
and
Date: Wed Aug 05 1998 11:58
MM ( I was more concerned about the Leonid shower ) ID#350179: Once or twice every 33 years the earth passes through a dense stream of debris from periodic comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. The result is a spectacular display of 1,000 to 200,000 meteors per hour. The next severe Leonid meteor storm is due this November, and satellite operators are devising stretegies to protect their hardware. Antennas, cameras, and other delicate instruments will be be turned away from the expected stream of particles to minimize damage.
and
Date: Sat Aug 01 1998 11:41
Bingo ( Meteors worry industry....satellites at risk. ) ID#263254: Watch out for the Leonid Meteor showers November 17, 1998.
http://www-space.arc.nasa.gov/~leonid/hazard.html
and BillD back on Wed Jun 10 1998 16:38 posted
Another scientist at the American Astronomical Society's annual meeting, David Lynch of the Aerospace Corp., told reporters that between 500 and 600 satellites orbiting the earth will be sandblasted by a Leonid Meteoroid Storm due her November 17. Damage most likely will not occur he said but it can create electrically charged plasma that could short-circuit computers and damage other sensitive electronic equipment.
and lastly ( in my short list though maybe others were firstest )
NOTHING GETS PAST SHAREFIN!
Date: Tue Jun 09 1998 04:34
sharefin ( Y2K Preview? ) ID#284255:
- The world economy is dependent on nearly 500 space satellites for telephone service, navigation, TV and weather observation. In November the earth will be hit by the biggest meteor shower in 33 years. The Leonid storm is expected to damage or destroy an unknown number of satellites. Most of the meteors are the size of grains of sand but they move so fast they hit with the impact of .22 caliber bullets.
Shades of Y2k. A cloud of meteors this big has not hit in so long that no one planned for it. Military satellites are expected to come throught okay, they have armor, but civilian satellites are sitting ducks.
Building or launching replacements could take months or years, so here's a warning, too. If communications are seriously disrupted, it might trigger a stock crash. It's happened before. In 1929, phone lines into New York were knocked down by a snowstorm and investors who were cut off from their brokers became frightened. When the lines were reconnected, they sold, triggering the great 1929 crash.
:
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:14
Obsidian (Thanks, but were there factual errors, and if so what were they?) ID#237299: - .
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:14
WhisperingLow (Interesting Barron's article) ID#243415: - Expected rate cuts won't necessarily keep bubble afloat. Check out this article. http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB908581851675563500.htm
WisperingLow - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:12
mozel (@Obsidian All of it.) ID#153102: -
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:08
mozel (@caper) ID#153102: - Suspect Canada gov is rotten in parts or all of core. Reason 1: cocaine trade through Can to Montana via federal parks and reservations Reason 2: Imported diseased blood from Arkansas ( would there be interests in Canada that would actually want to create sick people to take care of ? )
Just wondering though, where would Canadian gov put its warships if not on both coasts ? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 16:06
Obsidian (Mozel: I beg some tolerance here...) ID#237299: - What in the refrence to Roosevelt @ gold did you take issue with?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:59
Caper (Aunt Annie(with no cyber papers) supports Mozel-Has from day 1.) ID#300202:
Copyright © 1998 Caper/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Has always insisted it was staged in Sudbury, Ontario. Sys the moon is
only suited for cybersquabbles. By now I must be red tagged by CSIS
& the Horsemen as I fail to get in my persistence with Cdn Members of
Parliament, any direct answers re the kind of Martial Law being imposed in Canada during 2000. Even if one accepts a martial law as imposed on
La Belle Province in 1969, WHAT IS THE NECESSITY of warships being posited on both coasts. The only answer supplied is in case of power outages. Our power companies state they are compliant. Can any Kanadian
Kitcoites supply me with an answer. This is not a fantasy conspiracy.
It has been provided to the press by the Feds, including an RCMP spokesperson who advises all their leave has been cancelled due to
expected chaos. Tasking all Canadians to call their MP's & MPP's. No one seems to give a sh*t here. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:56
mozel (@RAN CB on moon announces sales of gold ?) ID#153102: - Or something like that ? Noodle on the moon walk evidence for a while, and on the missing evidence, and the fraud will be exposed by your reason.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:47
Squirrel (oops - the most important part - the title & author) ID#287186: - MOTHER OF STORMS by John Barnes, copyright 1994.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:46
Squirrel (Gagnrad - of clathrates and apocalyptic fiction) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Postulate a trigger to TEOTWAWKI and write a story that explores the effects upon humanity and Earth. In this case some power emplaced missile launch sites on the Arctic seabed - nothing too bad so far. But another power launches a nuclear strike on those sites.
Now, Houston, we have a problem.
So energy form the cram bombs goes into the seabed and warms up ice that is just below the freezing point, releasing methine. Moreover, as the clathrates dissolve, they trigger landslides and collapses under the sea... Tonight the seabed is alive with avalanches, collapses and pressure waves. Methane deposited across thousands of years is bubbling up from all over...Within eighteen hours, the fify-foot-deep clathrate beds stretching along the outer edge of the North Slope, about sixty-five miles wide and running more than four hundred miles under the sea, are in collapse. Methane is a greenhouse gas, and the quantity of methane released, in a matter of a few days, is 173 billion metric tons. That's about... thirty-seven times what's in the atmosphere in 1992.
P.S. I devour such novels to learn what the authors ( many of whom have researched the science & sociology etc. to be as accurate as possible ) have considered regarding TEOTWAWKI and I have not, yet. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:45
Scito (To All: Leonid Meteor Storm) ID#247190:
Copyright © 1998 Scito/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Perhaps I've missed any postings here on this subject, but as of the past
few weeks I can't say that I've seen anything about the Leonid Meteor Storm being mentioned on this site or in the news for that matter. It seems that the potential disasterous affects of this storm which is only a month away ( Nov 14-20 ) are far more damaging than Y2K.
Unfortunate as this will be, This could/should have a positive affect on Gold. When you think that there are 500plus Satellites in orbit exposed to roughly 150,000 ( 10,000 per hour ) grains of sand travelling at 155,000 miles per hour each having the impact of a bullet plus the potential plasma which is said to be even more damaging then the sand blast itself.
When you consider all the confusion/panic that reigned a few months ago when just one Satellite went down. What do we think will happen when even just a few of these go down?
The government and military will cease control of any Satellites that remain operational.
The sand blast may very well pit out lenses and possibly put holes right through.
I'm just surprised we have not heard more talk about this. Probably would cause a run on the banks immediately which they are not prepared for.
Should be quite a light show for all to see. When it happened in 1833 people were awoken from their sleep, they thought the world was ending.
Last appearence was in the 60's when there were very few Sattelites.
We are scheduled for Nov 17 1998 & Nov99.
Y2K may be the least of our worries. The rate at which disasters strike any more have got to have people wondering what is going on.I believe we are beginning to see not just signs on the earth i.e., Mud Slides, Raging Fires, Flooding, Hurricanes, but now Signs in the Heavens as well with Haley-Bop and this Leonid Meteor Storm. I heard that the last time ( can't confirm this ) Haley-Bop was said to have past by the earth was during Noah's Day. As it was in the days of Noah, so shall also the coming of the son of man be.
Whether anyone on this site believes in such prohecy does not matter because there are a large number of people out there who do believe and will base their financial/investing decisions in life on such events.
Any thoughts on this? - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:39
RAN__A (Wether the moon is green cheese or Gold DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY PREDICTIONS ) ID#411271: - for POG monday close, friday close, October close?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:37
RAN__A (@mozel - well who knows, I'll keep an open mind to the possibiliites) ID#411271: - of a fake. It seems it would be more difficult to do and keep quite than the real thing however.
Hey maybe they did make it to the moon, discovered it was really made of gold, and they are using nasa as a mining company to flood supply and keep the price in its trading range! - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:34
GeoGeoff__A (Moon Hoax) ID#432136: -
You people who believe in the moon hoax are morons!
You probably believe Clinton too.
So typical of the 1990's to believe that everything is a conspiracy. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:31
Rumpled (MOON PHOOEY!!!) ID#411251: - The rate of tech advance, from orbiting the earth, to a moon landing and
return, would be the equivalent of the Wright bros first flight, and flying
747's a week later!!!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:27
mozel (@ALBERICH @Moon Walk had to be genuine) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Suppose I am correct that the moon walk show was a deception of war in the ideological cold war for men's minds. The first rule of such an operation is need to know: to make only known what must be known only to those who must know. The Need To Know Rule. Your German rocket scientist need never have known if the moon walk was a fraud. Tolerant1's hero scientist need never have known. No huge number of people need to have known. All of the problems of launching and so forth were real problems. Everyone doing any actual productive work would have been presented with specifications and problems. None of them would have been in the need to know category.
On the other hand, let's suppose your hero scientist decides to expose the moon walk fraud. Who would publish his statement ? National Enquirer ? ( I daresay National Enquirer has already published a story alleging the moon walk was a fraud. ) Kook of the Month magazine ?
A moon walk fraud would certainly be a State Secret. I say again that the creation in public opinion of the attitude that there can be no successful deceptions, no conspiracies to mislead, that anyone who credits the idea is a kook, is the most clever propaganda the spooks have ever gotten across.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:17
haulpak (@ John Disney) ID#402183: - Absolutely right about the moon hoax. It was all filmed in the Carson Sink. If you look carefully at the old films, you can see tire tracks from Goodyear Wrangler radials in the dirt ( probably mine ) .
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:17
gunrunner (Like I said,) ID#429121: - Mentally defective... Maybe you should try prozac.
Thanks for that fine market insight. Fine prose fiction writing there. You write much better than you call the market.
And for his next trick, customers...., or mostly EX-customers...
. . . Oh well, you get the picture.
So, what's platinum gonna do Monday, salesboy? We STILL wait...
.... For more babbling dissertations from spot
Go Platinum!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:16
mozel (@Mooned By Spooks) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - http://www.informamerica.com/The_Informed_American/Moon.htm
Good Unanswered Questions There.
But, the big unaswered question: what was the science of life support in the space between earth and moon and on the moon where objects can heat to 245F from radiation from the sun in a perfectly insulating vacuum.
The moon walk was a political achievement, a propaganda achievement, a diversionary deception of war, another Fraud that was necessary to Win the Cold War. Another fraud necessary to preserve government by war power which is against the Law. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:14
plaintalker (Moles) ID#225147: - Living underground, surfacing only to deficate!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:14
Realistic (Educational reality check!) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Silver price back then: 660
Started a multi-month decline on April 23rd 1998
Silver price today: 495 ( went as low as 460 in September )
Date: Wed Apr 22 1998 18:12
farfel ( F*'s Evaluation of the GOLD & SILVER MARKET... ) ID#340302:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I am maintaining my EXTREMELY BULLISH position on gold and am now formally declaring AN EXTREMLY BULLISH position on silver. On a micro level, I am most excited by the recently announced dramatic turnaround at the silver bellwether, Sunshine ( SSC ) , its tremendous future prospects, and the apparent million share volume consolidation that has occurred in it these past few days. On a macro-level, silver seems to have established its bottom, the COMEX silver inventories are holding nice steady levels, and gold's imminent hefty spike should pull up silver right along with it.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:14
haulpak (Some thoughts on Anglo American plc) ID#402183: - Anglo American will have completed assimilating Minorco by opening day of the '99 baseball season. The various Minorco gold producers in North and South America will have been transferred over to Anglogold by that time. How will this affect the Anglogold share price? Anglogold will then be on the prowl for some truly Anglo-sized aquisitions. Might they trade their majority position at Jerritt Canyon, Nevada to Meridian? Then go after Newmont Who knows, but I look for additional consolidation by the All-Star break, with Anglogold writing the check ( s ) .
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:06
RAN__A (The Apollo 13 mission must have just faked their difficulties purely) ID#411271: - for television ratings and a claim on Ron Howard's future movie for consultation rights- huh?
I distrust the government and buerocrats as much as the next guy,
really there have been far too many patents and innovations developed thru the space programs to assert they were faked. Get real. Do you have any idea how many people could blow that cover? & consequently how highly unlikely it is that it could be accomplished? A cover-up that is. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:02
bondsman__A (Moonlanding) ID#261102: - The moonlandings significance was primarily the enormous psychological effect it had impressing a deep sense of American technological superiority, that is, as a public relations feat.
In this sense it would be vastly more interesting, and would greatly increase my respect for the US as the world's largest power, if it did not actually occur but was indeed a fake.
The real story was the large investment the US made in research in basic science and engineering and the great accomplishments are on record AND CANNOT BE FAKED. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 15:01
ERLE (mole likes Clinton,) ID#190411: - Big Mole is not the same as little mole.
Big Mole is a libertarian type. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:53
John Disney (the great State of Nevada ) ID#24135: - .. looks good to me..
The more I think about it .. The less I believe it.
What were our chances of even getting a man out into
orbit and back without killing him ? one in 20 .. one
in 50
Now we have to do that .. then a long haul in deep
space .. then orbit moon .. then that lunar lander
bullsh!t .. THEN COME BACK .. cmon old beans ..
what were the chances ?
I prefer the Nevada desert alternative. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:52
farfel (@HIGHRISE...I found your Prudential Broker's statement warning ....) ID#341227:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...to be of significant interest.
In my own experience, I have encountered one new anomaly with my own brokerage firm.
I trade often and NEVER do margin trades. I have ZERO debt.
On two occasions recently, when I have made standard options trades ( and I do about an average of 50-60 a year ) , the broker has stated over the phone that I have enough cash in my account to do the trade. What is most interesting is that the trades are usually a very small percentage of my available cash. So, the broker's emphatic statement ( for the purpose of the phone recording ) to the effect that I have enough cash to do the trade seems like a defensive maneuvre initiated by the broker's firm.
My impression is that these brokers are taking more severe measures to protect their collective butts. By memorializing the state of the customer's account via a phone recording at the time of trade, then that appears to be one of those measures.
Thanks.
F*
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:40
John Disney (F for Fake ) ID#24135: - How did that lunar lander gizmo work who built it
Where is it ( are they ) now - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:30
John Disney ( Sometimes ..) ID#24135: - .. I even think MOLES are rigged ..
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:29
John Disney (Ah ....) ID#24135: - MOLE..
You speak for most people ..
what fun and how nice for you ..
Poor me .. I only speak for myself
and I think the polls are rigged. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:25
Gusto Oro (13:29) ID#377235: - Clinton is an ass, Mole. --AG
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:24
mozel (@Tom You're welcome.) ID#153102: - Watch for further installments.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:16
chas (Will re 10 grain coin) ID#147201: - I just found your post of 10/6. I don't know if I answered- I have been covered up ( ahlziemers ) but the size is 1 cm diamater about 1/2 mm thick with a rim. If you have any more questions, please let me know, Cjarlie
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:11
RAN__A (I make no prtenses of expertise in analyzing the gold market as my) ID#411271:
- - trading account balances of late will clearly testify. The Dec. futures
contract is I think approaching its 4th attempt to clear resitance @ 303-
305 as the short commercial interests have repelled it back down everytime. All convential bullish input has been present and summarily
dismissed. Does anyone still believe these convential factors alone can pressure the gold carry operatives into liquidation? ie. how many times would this run to resistance have to occur to deplete their rescources and don't they really have to much interest at stake to make this question moot?
The next question is what will it take to create the gold carry
unwind? Are all goldbugs waiting for more hedge fund collapsing whereby
complicated derivatives leave them scrambling for rescources so desperate that they will begin to unwind the gold carry? I guess I am asking that
it appears to me the gold carry is easy to defend cheap to maintain and lucrative to operate. What factors can change this?
It may seem to obvious to mention but instead of all extraneous factors being looked upon as bullish news for gold, what are the prospect for gold to create its own bull? What if Japan starts backing its banks
and currency with gold as Russia reports.
Will it take a market crash to bring buying demand to break the resitance level? I think so IMHO, as falling dollar values, orderly market retreats, collapsing treasuries have all been thoroughly unable to
to push us out of the tightly contained trading range of 296-305.
Go Gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 14:09
TYoung (mozel...and a thank you...) ID#317193: - TOM
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:58
Chicken man (@ Help wanted) ID#341297: - Forgot to mention-- Having the POWER to move markets is a must qualification
Rubin would be a pretty good bet too! - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:54
mozel (@The neat, but nefarious thing about disinformation is that, once properly launched,) ID#153110: - the uninformed just keep it going. example gratis:
Don't know if you realize, but President Roosevelt made the possession of gold illegal in 1933 and confiscated bullion held by U.S. citizens.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:42
Mike Stewart (How to speed up your internet access via phone.) ID#270253: - My friend is a PC wiz, and suggests the following source on easy tweaks to improve your internet access. I installed Tweakdun for $15 US and improved downloads by 20%.
http://www.cnet.com/Content/Features/Howto/Netspeed/index.html - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:40
Przytula__A (Chicken man) ID#227290: - How about Abby What's-her-name from Goldman Sachs, or even Greenspan ( he's going to need a new job soon anyways ) . = )
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:40
chas (Przytula re gold coins) ID#147201: - Read US Code Annotated. Since '72, any gold product that does not attempt to counterfeit or copy existing US coins is free as a bird. I wish I could find the reference, but it is not handy. It comes under Monetary Legislation. You can make them square, round or whatever. Charlie
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:29
mole (polls) ID#350145: - i do not think the polls are wrong nor are they rigged. most people do not want the president to resign, nor do they want him impeached. undermining a free election with partisan politics is not a good idea, and most people know this. clinton betrayed his wife, not the country.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:27
Chicken man (Help Wanted!!!) ID#341297: - Looking for finacial adviser for Kitco site....Must be accurate ( in price, timing and especially in direction! ) ....Kitcoites need not apply!
( your past records suck! )
Compensation will be in your choice of rubles, rupiah,or rumembi ( chinese )
Will expect 100% performance bond ( in gold ) to cover all losses of Kitcoites...
Please post resume as soon as possible...
Just a thought...Chicken man...
Don't laugh... it might just work!!!! - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:25
Przytula__A (Grizz) ID#227290: - Don't know if you realize, but President Roosevelt made the possession of gold illegal in 1933 and confiscated bullion held by U.S. citizens.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:24
Fordrik (2BOR2B good page fowarded) ID#271125: - To answere your question...from within the material the Japanese must print like hell....monetization..I felt that Morgan Stanleys econ. team has a pretty good assesment..Clearly not ruling out world wide recession but put the weight of the decision on the CB's.
We'll see
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:21
John Disney (Pinochet) ID#24135: - .. arrested in London travelling on a diplomatic
passport seeking medical help...
... Hmmmmm ... Maybe its safer to travel in Iran
than in some Western countries .. makes you wonder.. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:20
Przytula__A (For those of you looking for a chuckle . . .) ID#227290: - check out my post yesterday at 23:25. = )
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:19
Grizz (Gwyz @ 12:34 - Am I correct in reading you to say that) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The average feller and Goldbug won't be permitted to buy Gold - except as a jeweler or other authorized permittee come the day when Gold coins are again minted for general day-to-day circulation as money by governments ( as opposed to do-it-yourselfers rolling their own in the basement ) .
The outlawing of Gold possession may indeed occur.
But I do not foresee any government putting Gold back into circulation. They, and the powers pulling their strings, would rather hoard Gold in their vaults than ever see the common man using Gold as money again. They will outlaw it's possession to prevent that. Thus, just like guns, only outlaws will own them. Nobody here but us outlaws! - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:15
Obsidian (EJ @ your 1:55 post on debt relationships) ID#237299:
Copyright © 1998 Obsidian/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - When one studies these graphs the conclusions are chilling. The graphs of debt to assets, and total debt are both roughly 45 degree ramps upwards. In contrast, the graph of interest rate decline during the same period is almost a reciprocal ramp downwards. A third graph purports to show that in this same period of time assets have gone ballistic. The obvious conclusion is that most Americans are in deep sh*t.
The more subtle finding, is that the immense advertising campaign waged by Massa Card and the Detroit automakers has been wildly successful; It has managed to convince consumers that interest rates are the sole criteria by which one assumes debt- and that the total principal owed is a minor matter.
Anyone who has not looked at these, would find them educational. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:15
Tortfeasor (Disney) ID#37463: - I notice the same disparity between the CNN and ABC polls in which hundreds of thousands have participated and the official polls where 600+ have participated. I have found that rather interesting. I would like to meet those 600+ being polled. The people running for office here are taking to heart the polls and are boldly taking Hillary's endorsement. I hope that the 600+ are wrong.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:12
Tortfeasor (RJ) ID#37463: - Thanks for the info. I decided to take a visit there. Found nobody there slinging mud or otherwise. Truly a vast wasteland.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:11
John Disney (polls ..) ID#24135: - To all ..
All the polls Ive seen on the internet run roughly
80 % for impeachment or resignation with maybe 10 %
dont care ... YET the perception in the media is
65 plus % in favor of Clinton and Linda Tripp is more
hated than Bin Laden.
If the gomment can twist the interpretation of
public opinion to this extent .. it would have been
childs play to fake the moon landings .. and convince
90 % of the media fed sheep that it had taken place
without a shadow of a doubt.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:06
RJ (..... Torts .....) ID#411259: -
K2 = the Kitco version of the wild west. It is at:
http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/goldch2/display_shortch2.cgi
This is where Bart has asked people to take their negative remarks.
OK
Gone - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:05
gagnrad (squirrel re CO2, methane and clathrate formation, all re investment question plus mozel comment) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - One big message as I'm going out today!
Surely you are right about the density/temperature relationship of seawater but that provides a natural barrier as the colder water naturally sinks. IMHO the problem with bottom warming would not be CO2 release but the decomposition of the methane and natural gas clathrates which permeate the sea floor. If they ever bubble up all it would take to ignite them would be a match. Luckily all that is EXTREMELY unlikely. IMHO
All, back on the subject of gold/silver/pgm investment though, what do you think is a good strategy for the next 6 months. Presently I'm in 25% gold and pm stocks, 20% income stocks, 30% money markets and the remainding 25% in intermediate term government paper. This is of course a short term position, but ever since I converted so many stocks to MMF this June I've not known what to do next. IMHO
I have a friend who's in the process of liquidating $1.2 million worth of conservative stock portfolio in preparation for early retirement and what he terms will be the worst market in my lifetime but he's not telling me what he's buying. I suppose he doesn't want me to push the price up with my meager grubstake? IMHO
( Standard disclaimer applies. My investment are mine and yours are yours, et cetera. )
BTW, Mozel, I looked up the http://www.lexis-nexis.com site and they've removed reference to your project. But here is their express search site. http://www.lexis-nexis.com/express/ If you have a credit card you can send off for a reprint of any one of several exciting documents...IMHO of course! ( 8-^ ) )
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:05
Tortfeasor (Russian gold purchases) ID#37463: - This is probably old news, but I just read on a competing site that the Russian government is going to buy most of the gold mined this coming year to bolster its sick economy. This would appear to be rather bullish for gold. Maybe that fact has already been factored into the price. If I am reciting old history forgive my lack of prior research.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:02
Tortfeasor (K2) ID#37463: - Just a quick question. Many have referred to K2. Is this like telling someone to go to hell or is it another Kitco metals talk room? K9 ( dogs ) I know but not K2. Please enlighten me. I might want to go there to watch a good mud wrestling match. Thanks.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 13:01
RJ (..... .!.... .....) ID#411259: -
I will be gone for a time, yes?
Yes
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:52
RJ (..... Oooooops .....) ID#411259: -
I my overly sensitized, shell shocked, recipient of a constant barrage state, I failed to see that all of Gunny's posts are acutely directed at the farfel.
My mistake.
You can get off the roof now, Gunny.
Indeey O
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:49
2BR02B? () ID#266105: -
Where does Japan get 1/2tril in public funds for bank bailout?
Print it!
http://www.ms.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#xtocid240630 - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:47
RJ (..... Top of which world? .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Gunny, sweetie,
Have you not heard?
Bart has asked people to take your kind of garbage to K2.
There are advertisers on this page. I don't think Bart wants all this negativity around his advertisers. You offer no market insight on this forum, just mystery attacks and racist jokes. By the way, it does not matter where you found your slam against the Vietnamese. The truly telling insight into your psyche, is that you passed it on, you found it hilarious. Perhaps you would like to drop another $2 billion in bombs on the folks, but I would rather live in harmony with a vital and important part of our community.
The violence inherent in your posts is also all to plain to see, as is your barely controlled rage. One almost expects to hear of somebody who calls himself Gun Runner barricaded in a family house with women and children as hostages…
This is your mother, Gunny, please come out, wails the sweet gray haired lady.
Can't do it Ma, they are all out to get me. Gonna' have to take me out boots first!
This is Father O'Leary, Gunny. Think of you poor mother. Think of your innocent hostages.
I thought about all the, Padre, but I gotta kill the world with all my heavy guns. Why do you think I own so many guns, and brag about them all the time? I just gotta' shot someone, Father, so back off.
Oh Gunny, cries hid mother, Please, oh please give yourself up!
Top of the world, Ma. Top of the world!
These scenes never turn out well.
Watch the news, folks. We just might see a flash on CNN with shaky helicopter pictures of Gunny on the roof with a sniper rifle. I will probably just keep on channel surfing. I know how the Gunny scenario always turns out. No mystery there. I'd rather watch Jeopardy.
Until then, perhaps he will remember the wishes of Bart, and take all this garbage off this page and away from Bart's advertisers.
This site is about money. If somebody thinks differently, take economics 101.
OK
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:34
gwyz (Grizz...) ID#432130: - Gold will be back in circulation when paper money turns to feces. If you are saying that is as far as it will go ( reinstating the gold standard ) , and that gold will then not be sold to the masses, then I agree with your post.
go gold!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:29
Grizz (Incessant talk of Gold being a currency.) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gold has been replaced by cybermoney ( except in power plays among power brokers. ) The grand old days of Double Eagles and Gold Dollars are gone! Not even Kitco, the largest collection of Goldbugs on Earth, can muster the support to put Gold back into circulation. Without the support for this by even self-professed Goldbugs, Gold will now and forever be relegated to commemoratives, jewelry, dental fillings and industrial uses. Sad news indeed for we will need common Gold coinage in the next decade more than perhaps any time in history. But alas, the Gold will remain in vaults - never to see the hand of common man again - except as a wedding ring or novelty.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:27
gwyz (Chicken Man...) ID#432130: - Your post about walking on water was something that needed to be said. Thank you very much for saying it.
The end is near. got gold?
: )
Gregg - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:10
gunrunner (Oh great EX-pert, R-Clinton-clone*) ID#429121: - Spew forth your whines and propaganda. I'm glad to see more folks are seeing you for what you are. Wouldn't you all want to do business with such a mentally defective individual and incompetent salesman?
Your EX-customers are wondering why you don't know how to use stops...
Good words here, well except for U-no-Hoo....
Gunny
Indeed
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:04
STUDIO.R (@i'm back...........) ID#119358: - Is it good thinking to sell great quantities of gold, one of RAREST of all the earthlies, which you do not have? the answer: nope.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 12:03
EJ (@Oro (ALBERICH & Squirrel, I gotta run, I'll get back to ya later)) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - My rocket scientist, gearhead pal replies...
Your Respectful Interlocutor,
-EJ
Relating to the yen short situation. The trader's commitments on the
yen futures contract and yen calls from June onwards show a hedge
against a large short in the actual currency. Grants interest rate
monitor and Asia Monitor were talking about this issue back in June. It
was mentioned in Barron's ( I should write down the dates and authors,
but I didn't ) . BIS, in some articles quoted at this board voiced
their concern over this issue and they cited some numbers on the order
of $2 trillion in yen in net short positions and gold shorts on the
order of $1/2 trillion. This number was supposedly on the rise since
then.
Couple of points --
- It's very hard to imagine that the _entire_ world of currency traders,
perceiving a new and dangerous yen/dollar trend would just sit there,
idle? That's not how traders typically act, and it's very rarely how
their managers let them act. Serious operations all do realtime P&L and
risk analysis and they all read the same papers this guy does. I always
have trouble believing someone who believes they are the lone beacon-of-truth.
- *Lot's* of currency agreements are not exchange traded and neither Grants
nor Barron's nor anyone else knows how it nets out. Making it even
muddier, lots of derivatives have currency relationships as one of
several pricing inputs. So a particular contract might not center around
currency but definitely moves with currencies.
These inconsistencies may be used to arbitrage the situation, but in
checking this out, I found that the arbitrage was somewhat illusory,
since the imbalances occasionally got you into hair raising situations
as the arb opportunity became better but you were already in the hole
for more than you are worth.
Don't know if he's speaking as a small investor or a real player, also the
details are a bit fuzzy. A colleague was the chief computer nerd for a
Chicago company doing mispriced option trading, he has some really
fascinating stories. Their basic mechanism was: once they spotted a
mispriced option, they would buy/sell it, and very importantly hedge all
the other characteristics such as the underlying price. This let them make
a bet on the one very specific part of the option's mispricing, rather than
let a handful of other variables float uncontrolled. Their mechanisms made
it pretty likely that they'd make money and at least not lose much.
The continuity issues and the distribution ( non normal assymmetrical
variance behavior ) go so far as to cause your mechanical models to
make the 'wrong' decisions as apparent arb situations were behaving as
directional bets. The original BS model treats prior price b havior as
( moving ) ave age ( not used in the model ) with a standard deviation
( normal usa e-though any figure you specify could be used for variance
) and refers to current security prices and interest rates to calculate
theoretical option prices. It can be modified to treat volatility
differently - as having a directional element that may be excluded from
the calculation of the variance through a simle linear model,
exponential average or exponential line.
This is true, and there's lots of nerd research on how best to compute
volatility. But any one trader can compute volatility his own way but it
doesn't mean anything unless he can somehow predict *future* volatility
better than the market.
Reducing option pricing models to the bare basics, the key idea is that
you're trying to figure out how *likely* the option will expire in the
money ( staying with European options for simplicity ) . Once you know that
likelihood, you can multiply that probability by the strike price, discount
it to current dollars, and that's what the option is worth today.
That's where the volatility comes in and why it's so important. Since the
models strongly assume that you can't predict the future stock price, the
only thing they can use is the historical volatility to compute the future
price probability distribution.
An option's real traded price reflects the market's idea of that
probability distribution ( other stuff too, but for simplicity ) . Lots of
people have worked on the best models to compute that probability
distribution, but by definition, it's based on history. They're all
projecting a future probability on a historical distribution, and of course
there's no magic there.
At the close of each day, a settlement must be made on the basis of the
option quote at close. If you are stuck with naked options positions
you sold that have come into the money, the damage can be
horrific.
But I don't think many of the rocket scientist crowd trade this way because
it opens them up to tons of risk that they can mechanically neutralize.
Despite the cowboy reputation, these guys *really* don't like risk and
remove it whenever they can. Anyone playing an arb game on very subtle
option pricing errors simply can't live with other random variables
floating around. Especially if the mispricing is small, it increases the
quantity of options they have to trade to make any money, and therefore
those other risks really *have* to be eliminated to make the deal
palatable.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:58
GeoGeoff__A (?) ID#432136: - It sure seems like it is taking awhile for this deflationary/depression in the worlds economies to unfold. How long will it be before the Fed admits what is really going on?
By the way, what kind of backgrounds/education levels/ages of the average person in here. Obviously, some very intelligent people.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:57
STUDIO.R (@the world has flown too close to the sun............) ID#119358: - we are toast. goodbye.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:52
Squirrel (EJ @ 09:08 on feeling old and the passing of Gold's luster) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Your examples give me pause when considering women in their twenties as they are from another world. In my late forties those events as well as the beginning and end of our great space age {Vostok 1 in '61 through Apollo 17 in '72} and the Vietnam War forged my generation. But they are pre-history to those born since 1970.
Truly this generation will be devastated by the loss of the amenities they now take for granted. The hard-won wisdom and personal experience of The Great Depression now resides only in the minds of our elders older than seventy - an rapidly diminishing pool of essential guides to help us navigate through the coming decade. We will have much cause to regret not electing Bob Dole ( born in 1923 ) and re-electing Billy Goat and Göre instead. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:51
STUDIO.R (@With all other currencies precariously existing in a weakened state,) ID#119358: - against what will the dollar relationally depreciate? answer: gold.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:39
gagnrad (IDT Thanks for the tip!) ID#43460: - I tracked down the PEI names you mentioned and came up with a REALLY GOOD URL! ( As many people here know one of my hobbies is fishng for URLs ) Here are 2 good hits from the PEI site:
Princeton Economics International homepage
http://www.pei-asia.com/HMEFRAME.HTM
Another Armstrong article
http://www.inergy.com/ThePAWNBROKER/page2.html - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:20
IDT (New Article from PEI by M. Armstrong) ID#228128:
- - I'm not sure if its already been posted but here it is:
Lower Rates: Bullish or
a Bearish Omen of What is Yet to Come?
By Martin A. Armstrong
October 16th, 1998
Princeton Economic Institute
The Fed’s surprise move to cut not merely the Funds Rate but also the Discount Rate ¼ pt on the Ides of October has been hailed as a bullish signal by stock jockeys to rush back into the markets. However, it was also on the Ides of March that Caesar was warned Beware. Perhaps if Caesar had listened, we would never have known about Brutus, Marc Antony or Cleopatra. There would have never been a second Civil War; no love story and no smashing hit for Elizabeth Taylor. It is impossible to say how history might have been changed had Caesar just taken some precautions in his moment of triumph. Today, we are faced with the same choice. Do we rush back into the marketplace casting caution to the wind, or step back for a moment of reflection?
The above illustration provides an important view of reality when it comes to stock market and interest rates. The myth that lower interest rates are BULLISH for stocks and higher interest rates are BEARISH, is perhaps the single greatest lie of all time. As illustrated here, the Fed raised rates from 3.5% in 1927 up to 6% in 1929 and the Dow Jones DOUBLED. The Fed responded quickly to the debacle of 1929 and lowered rates from 6% to 1.5% within less than 2 years while the Dow Jones collapsed by 70%. In the 1994, interest rates were at the low. The Fed raised rates 8 TIMES between 1994 and 1998 and the Dow Jones again DOUBLED! Now that the Fed is lowering rates, take a look at the above chart one more time just for the hell of it. Ask yourself, Did the Fed lower rates in 1929 because of problems? Is the Fed lowering rates now because of problems?
The Russian default will go down in history as one of the major economic debacles of this century. The plain stupidity of pouring money into such an economy where there is no rule of law breaks every guideline for risk management in the book. The lack of professionalism among funds and banks that have cried for free markets on one hand and demanded IMF guarantees on the other has set our financial community up for a very serious fall. Add to this problem the refusal of the IMF and G7 to recognize their role in this debacle and one must question the outcome of future investigations that are surely on the horizon next year.
Then we have the convergence and market neutral traders that leverage $5 billion into hundreds of billions trying to squeeze out a quarter point between two markets and the financial cocktail becomes a lethal time bomb of unknown proportions. This dangerous mixture of bad loans to Russia and bad loans to highly leveraged convergence traders has all but taken down the interbank market in the course of two months. By wiping out dealing desks around the world, we are watching the functionality of global trade vaporize. At this point in time, there is no degree of an interest rate cut that will make this problem go away. We are rapidly approaching the point where to save the world, the US Treasury must NOW broker a deal between the banks, the Chicago Clearing House and the CFTC to somehow bring all the cash positions into a central place where we may achieve stability and above all transparency. We do not know the full extent of the derivative markets in the OTC world. We do know that they were in excess of $10 trillion. However, the majority of this amount was merely forwards to facilitate trade and capital flows, which do NOT represent speculative time bombs. Still, the precise proportion of serious problems is not known. This in itself is causing the rumor mill to spread concerning failures of three large financial institutions in the States, 2 big ones in Europe and half a dozen in Japan. We will not repeat those names here because nobody really knows and that’s why we need for transparency right now.
The relief rally is underway in the share markets. This is NOT an opportunity to rush back in. The worst is far from over. This is true for not merely the US market, but also Europe where the bounce is more likely to impress those who think new highs are around the corner. The global financial community has taken a very serious hit. This hit will be life threatening for some. In any event, look for rallies to provide selling opportunities – not the last train out of town headed to unprecedented wealth.
We must now be concerned that the reaction rallies could find their peaks next week. Only new highs beyond the week of 10/19 would raise the potential for a rally into the week of 11/02. Unfortunately, it appears that the share markets are prone to a decline going into year-end where the vast majority of indices will close 1998 below that of 1997.
We are clearly in a liquidity crisis and not a flight to quality crisis. While a flight to quality tends to produce less volatility due to assets moving from one sector to another, the liquidity crisis is marked by a drive toward cash ONLY. This trend has caused serious liquidations to take place in just about every market as we are now witnessing first hand. The contagion of today remains very much like that of the Great Depression. In fact, President Herbert Hoover wrote in his memoirs about the 1930s contagion… During this new stage of the depression, the refugee gold and the foreign government reserve deposits were constantly driven by fear hither and yon over the world. We were to see currencies demoralized and governments embarrassed as fear drove the gold from one country to another. In fact, there was a mass of gold and short-term credit which behaved like a loose cannon on the deck of the world in tempest-tossed era. While today we are not on a gold standard and hence there is no refugee gold, we do have electronic cash that is rushing back and forth in the same manner that Hoover observed during the crisis of 1931.
The British pound fell from $4.86 to $3.12 and then turned around a moved up to $5.12 all within a 2-year period during the 1930s. We have been warning for years, that our computer models have projected a bull market in volatility extending into a final peak by 2003. Those who think that we have seen the worst of it will themselves become demoralized in the process. While the dollar has been hit due to liquidation of large hedge funds, ask yourself another question: Do you really want to own yen with an interest rate for deposits at 0.001%?
The liquidation crisis we are currently moving through has shaken out every dollar long on the books against the dmark and yen. Neither trend is fundamentally support by the underlying economic conditions or capital flows. While support for the dollar/yen lies at the 110.60-107.00 level, our computer model still shows that there is now an even HIGHER probability that we will see 200 long before we will ever see new lows the dollar. The 1995 low in the US dollar against Europe and Japan was a MAJOR low on a 62-year basis. The dollar rally between 1995 and 1998 was just the beginning of a bull market moving into 2003.
In Japan, we still have very serious problems ahead. The collapse in the dollar has now wiped out 2 years of profits on foreign investments. Japanese banks do not have much of a prayer to become profitable. With Phase II of Big Bang deregulation beginning December 1st, 1998, we have a new set of concerns on the horizon. Japanese brokerages house do not operate under a segregated account basis. This means that they have been able to use depositor’s cash for the own purposes for years. With the failure of Yamaichi, the old deposit insurance fund blew up. On December 1st, all brokerage houses in Japan must begin to prepare to implement segregated account practices and contribute to a new insurance fund. The implementation of segregated accounts will take place on April 1st, 1999. It is widely expected that many weaker Japanese brokerage houses will be unable to comply. However, reluctance on the part of foreign securities houses in Japan is now starting to emerge concerning the funding of a new protection fund. Most see this as another way for the government to shift the burden of bailouts to anyone other than itself. The foreign securities houses are now proposing to establish their own separate insurance fund that has strict guidelines compared to the vague government scheme. We may suddenly hear a very big thump coming from Japan and it will be more than just bank failures once the segregated account rules come into play.
The Euro has blown up in this debacle as well. The miracle convergence of the Euro interest rates was accomplished by the hedge funds and convergence traders like LTCM. We have seen the fixed income market destroyed. There is NO WAY Europe can now possibly implement the Euro currency at current levels without some white knight with a few trillion dollars to bet on convergence, or a surprise readjustment in currencies on Thursday night, December 31st, 1998. Given the fact that the driving force behind the Euro is political and NOT economic, we see little hope that the politicians will back off. It is more likely that we will now see a readjustment by December 31st and the launch of the Euro regardless of market conditions. This CANNOT possibly help stability next year. Each economy will be watched closely and at the first sign of trouble the ECB ( European Central Bank ) will be forced to pour in reserves from the stronger economies to support the weaker ones. This is Asia all over again – another fixed exchange rate mechanism that is politically driven.
There appears to be no rabbit coming out of the hat. We are not even sure the rabbit is still alive and as for the hat, it too might be missing for the moment. We need ABOVE all, transparency right now. We need to bring the cash OTC market into a central clearing organization or risk seriously damaging world trade flows as a victim in this liquidity crisis. To all treasuries we say this:
The time to act is NOW. If we wait to study such a proposal, time will NOT be on our side. The technology is there to do the job. We already have electronic systems such as EBS. Moving from that environment to a clearinghouse structure is not that hard today. To the Fed we say; Thanks for the rate cut, but we know you wouldn’t have acted unless there was a very serious problem in the wings. So let’s get down to fixing the problems rather than treating the symptoms. Lower rates too far, and you will spark foreign capital repatriation, more damage among convergence and fixed income positions, while raising the stakes in overall volatility.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:19
Squirrel (MM @ 18:15 and 18:51 yesterday re: auroras & x-rays) ID#287186: - Floods, fires, starvation, and disease paralyze the planet. In a blue aurora flash of gamma rays, all microchips worldwide are destroyed, leaving an already devastated Earth without communications, transportation, weaponry, or medicine.
Sound familiar?
This snippet is from the back cover of a book I found informative and can highly recommend: AFTERMATH by Charles Sheffield. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:12
Speed (ERLE) ID#29048: - South African ADRs sold in U.S. links to financial info are found via the blue underlined ticker symbols.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.htx?source=htx/dbc
Incidentally, if I am wrong in assuming that you are in the U.S., please post. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:08
Speed (ERLE) ID#29048:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Aussie gold stocks with some homepage links
http://www.the-privateer.com/goldprod.html
Any stock traded on U.S. exchanges has to file with the SEC. These filings contain detailed financial information. SEC filings can be found here: http://www.freedgar.com/
Also you can set up a watch list with free edgar and they will notify you by email of future filings.
Here is a link with tons of information on just about every gold stock.
http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/index.htm
Finally, if you want some message boards, I can post some of those too. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:04
Chicken man (Cherokee @ Great quotes) ID#341297: - Thank you for those gems....got another one...can't remember the author...think it was a Fed boy...it goes....what we learn from history is that we don't learn from history....something like that..hope you have a better memory than me...
Just a thought...Chicken man... - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 11:04
TYoung (Tol#1...Happy B day youngster...) ID#317193: - whenever the heck it is...seems I missed which day...anyway a gulp ( w or w/out permission ) and a puff ( only tobacco ) to you. Moreover...the N word to ya!!
Methinks some very big banks and brokerage houses may fail within weeks...My guess is THAT is what AG knows that everyone else does not. Got your derivatives...got a solvent counterparty...there will be none...if this is so. Hope AG can avoid this.
Tom - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:56
ERLE (@Knowledgeable goldstock buyers) ID#190411: - I have started to move away from the Majors because of the lower gearing that they offer.
I would appreciate some of the expertise of the posters that have done serious due diligence.
If you know of sites that have financial info on less well known companies, there are some of us that are looking. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:50
cherokee (@.....cusp.for.mankind......place.your.bets.accordingly.....bblwmmrs.) ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved -
alberich..
'Debt is ok as long as assets are growing faster than
liabilities. But when the recession hits full force next quarter, assets will shrink faster than liabilities. ej
the other critical factor is what has happened
to the money supply...........vastly inflated tambien...
coupled with falling assets...AND increasing debt........
i hear the death knell of the 'current' fiat curriencies around
the world....with it, the collapse of the 'semi'-orderly society
we call ours..read of asimov and heinlein's visions of psyco-history
and collapsing societal structures....they DID SEE the future.....
those who say you cannot know the future are the fools......
it is crystal clear if one would only 'open their eyes to 'see''
'the farther back you can look, the farther forward you can see'
winston churchill
it is only the timing of the impending events that is elusive...
'if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood
on the shoulders of giants' sir isaac newton...
'for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction' sir isaac...
use these 3 gifts from giants....coupled with patience...and the
day will be yours...
cherokee!;..riding.high..looking.back...seeing.forward...
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:19
ALBERICH (@EJ: Your 1:20; you made a very exciting statement:) ID#254112:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Debt is ok as long as assets are growing faster than
liabilities. But when the recession hits full force next quarter, assets will shrink faster than liabilities.
This is exactly what happened in Japan almost ten years ago. And they are in trouble until today because of the asset - liability imbalance, caused by evaporating asset values. The problem is that the assets are over-valued in fiat currency by the financial markets. Therefore, these thin air values can evaporate any time. But the liabilities do not evaporate.
It would be interesting to know why you think this imbalance will occur next quarter. It's always very hard for me to understand any kind of timing. But your prediction is valid also when it would happen a little later ( i.e., or earlier ) . - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:12
Chicken man (Walking on water) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I once saw a bumper sticker that said Next time you feel so perfect try walking on water...tough act to do ...Peter tried it.. worked..till he realized where he was. ( Matthew 14:28-33 )
Sooo...none of us here are perfect!!!! no not one!!..so if a poster or posters give their predictions as to where the market is going ( and ole Chicken man is guilty of this same crime ) and the market goeth not so what... the predictor would be the only one who would lose his money!!!...unless...you were not doing your OWN due dilagence...kind of like 'ole Joe 6-pak investing mindset as to mutual funds... let the other guy do the thinking... if it goes wrong one can always BLAME someone else!!!
So if one would like to express their opinion ..go for it!! Don't think for a moment that I'm going rub it in you that YOU were WRONG....I've been wrong so many times I stopped counting....Whew...Many...many times and I can't walk on water either...
So... let us lighten up on each other...as my kids say
CHILL..
Just a thought... Chicken man.. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:06
Dabchick (For John B @ 23:37 last Sunday 11th Oct) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - John -- Last Sunday you wrote:
............... - since Commercials are considered the most knowledgeable of gold demand and supply trends, their move to short is negative for the POG...........
I agree, but as I said in my previous post today under the Lease Rates posting, their shorts are not normally short-term and the current very low 1-month lease rates would seem to confirm this.
Borrowing gold is becoming a more and more archaic process, and their go-betweens in the Borrowing market are the Bullion Banks. The BB's have been introducing more and more instruments to match the ( reluctant ) Central Bank lenders who prefer very short-term lending, with their Commercial borrowers ( Fabricators - Refiners - Producers - Miners ) who require to borrow over much longer periods. I get the feeling that the Commercial shorting you mention is much more - somehow- related to financing six- and twelve-month Commercial activities, rather than pure speculation. It is probably associated with the fact that the Bullion Banks get most of their gold form the CB's on a short-term basis but have to accommodate their customers on a longer-term basis.
I would value your consideration and comment.
Regards...............Dabchick - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:03
Dabchick (Friday's Gold and Silver Lease Rates) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - For Fri 16 Oct calculated from data published in today's FT.
GOLD------------1- month--------3-month--------6- month---------12- month
LIBOR--------------5.22--------------5.22--------------4.94----------------4.69
MGLR--------------4.76---------------3.94-------------3.53-----------------2.92
Gold Lease Rate--0.46---------------1.28-------------1.41-----------------1.77
( Change ) ------ ( - 0.06 ) -------- ( - 0.02 ) ------- ( + 0.08 ) ------------ ( - 0.11 )
SILVER----------1- month--------3- month-------6- month----------12- month
LIBOR--------------5.22--------------5.22--------------4.94-----------------4.69
Silver Lend Rate----4.00--------------3.20--------------2.40-----------------2.00
Silver Lease Rate---1.22--------------2.02--------------2.54-----------------2.69
( Change ) ------ ( + 0.01 ) -------- ( + 0.08 ) ------ ( + 0.38 ) ----------- ( + 0.08 )
The lines labelled ( Change ) = change in lease rates since previous day's figures.
MGLR and Silver Lending Rates are supplied to the FT by NM Rothschild .
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Summary of Gold and Silver Lease Rates
Monday 12th Oct to Friday 16th Oct
GOLD
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month | 0.64,,,,,,,0.52,,,,,,,,0.52,,,,,,,,,,0.56,,,,,,,,0.46
3-Month | 1.50,,,,,,,1.46,,,,,,,,1.42,,,,,,,,,,1.30,,,,,,,,1.28
6-Month | 1.63,,,,,,,1.52,,,,,,,,1.58,,,,,,,,,,1.49,,,,,,,,1.28
12-Month| 1.93,,,,,,1.98,,,,,,,,1.99,,,,,,,,,,1.88,,,,,,,,1.77
SILVER
Period --- | Mon,,,,,,,Tues,,,,,,,Weds,,,,,,,Thurs,,,,,,,Fri
1-Month | 1.32,,,,,,,1.21,,,,,,,,0.91,,,,,,,,,,1.21,,,,,,,,1.22
3-Month | 2.11,,,,,,,1.99,,,,,,,,1.59,,,,,,,,,,1.94,,,,,,,,2.02
6-Month | 2.56,,,,,,,2.71,,,,,,,,2.41,,,,,,,,,,2.16,,,,,,,,2.54
12-Month| 2.76,,,,,,2.84,,,,,,,,2.69,,,,,,,,,,2.61,,,,,,,,2.69
For Nick@C........Note that the 1-month Gold Lease rates are very near their historical lows. This could indicate a lack of demand for Central Bank gold for speculative ( short ) transactions. If you combine this with a look at the Commitments of NON-COMMERCIAL Traders for 13th October when they are published by CFTC next Friday afternoon you will probably find confirmation that these NON-COMMS are LONG of gold ( like they were on 29th Sept and even more so on 06th Oct ) . Non-Comms going long in Comex Gold is a reversal of what we have come to regard as normal over the last couple of years. If continued into the future, it could be indicating ( IMHO ) that the speculators think their Bear Market is coming to an end. ( But they are not infallible as Black-Scholes of LTCM and Nobel Prize fame have amply demonstrated ) .
And if you look at the Commitments of COMMERCIAL Traders for 13th October, you will probably find that the COMMS are SHORT of gold ( like they were on 29th Sept and even more so on 06th Oct ) . Now these COMMERCIALS are also doing the opposite of what we have come to regard as normal over the last two years. But the difference is that the COMMS are not usually active in the 1-month Gold Borrowing market. They ( Fabricators/Refiners and Miners/Producers and their Bullion Banks ) are more active in the 6-month and 12-month and longer markets and judging by the fact that these longer-period Lease Rates are holding up well ( albeit LIBOR is now 0.5% lower ) it seems their borrowing of Central Bank gold over these longer periods has not abated. But by the nature of their ( longer-term ) borrowing, the COMMERCIALS are not likely to withdraw from the borrowing market as quickly as the speculators ( NON-COMMS ) . If they are going to do so, it will be a much slower withdrawal. So if we see a more gradual reduction in the 6-month and longer lease rates we can assume this results from the Commercials reducing their CB gold borrowing also. Combine this with them going over to the short side on Comex, and its possible ( and I'm only guessing ) to imagine that the COMMS ( who are supposed to have inside information ) are reversing their behaviour of the last two years ( in a 2+ year Gold Bear Market ) because they are expecting something to change.
The Go-Betweens ( the Bullion Banks ) are probably the only ones who could explain what's going-on ( if anything ) , and they are unlikely to say. We ordinary mortals cannot expect to understand the day-to-day process of what has become an extremely complex and sophisticated ( Gold Lending/Borrowing ) Market, involving as it does all the complexities of Swaps, Options, Futures, Deltas ( whatever they are ) Shorts, Longs, Hedges, Contangoes,Calls, Puts, Spot Deferreds, and goodness only knows what else to keep young men in red suspenders busy.
Regards............Dabchick - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 10:01
Dabchick (Valuing Gold independent of fiat currencies) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1998 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in currency debasement.
Date--- | Close | High | Low |
12 Oct | 68.18 | 68.67 | 68.08 |
13 Oct | 68.96 | 69.04 | 68.64 |
14 Oct | 68.61 | 68.88 | 68.39 |
15 Oct | 68.60 | 68.86 | 68.19 |
16 Oct | 68.47 | 68.97 | 68.15 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
The index has found support this week at the bottom of the 68 to 70 trading range which was established during the seven-week period which commenced 1st Dec 1997. A fall below these lows would probably herald recession in real economies ( or renewed efforts by Central Banks to prevent same. )
Note that since its high of 2nd October ( when this index stood at 72.73 ) the true value of gold has fallen by 6%. Because the US Dollar has also fallen at the same time by 5% against all other currencies, this has limited the fall in the dollar price of gold to 1%.
Regards................Dabchick - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:59
EJ (One man's opinion... From Bryan Poe, regular poster on The Prudent Bear) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Says, The fact that the 13/53 week NDX m/a lines have not yet converged is a major reason why the crash has not yet occurred.
Bryan Poe on Friday, 16 October 1998, at 6:22 p.m.
As of 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday, October 16, 1998, the 53 week moving average for the Eurotop 100 index is 254.84 ( 13,506.58 / 53 ) The 13 week moving average is 251.34, below the 53 week moving average! FYI, the EUR, or Eurotop 100 index, measures the collective performance of the most actively traded equities on Europe's major stock exchanges and is designed to representative reflection of the European stock market as a whole.
As of 4:00 EST October 16, 1998, the DAX's 53 week m/a is 4,832.35 ( 256,114.5/53 ) and the 13 week moving avg is 4,942.18 ( 64,248.30/13. ) Here's the all important formula. [64,248.30 - DAX 07/24/98
close + D ] / 13 = 4,832.35, where D = the DAX 10/23/98 closing index level. The answer is 4,607.55. The DAX closed today at 4489.1. If the DAX fails to close above 4607.55 next Friday, the 13 week m/a will be below the 53 week m/a, and technical analysts will be selling DAX futures in a big way on Monday, October 26, 1998.
As of today, the NDX 53 week m/a is 1,188.33 ( 62,981.70/53 ) and the 13 week moving average is 1,313.42 ( 17,074.4/13. ) When will the 13 week m/a fall through the 53 week moving average? In other words, when is the market really going to crash? Let's see. The NDX closed 12/26/97 at 956.1. I am about to make a very reasonable assumption. The assumption is that the average closing value of the NDX index between now and 12/25/98 will be around 956.1, if not lower. Therefore, I am going to use 956.1 as the weekly closing value for the NDX between 10/23/98 and 12/25/98, and determine where the 13 week and 53 week moving average for the NDX would be on 12/25/98. That's 10 weeks. The 13 week m/a would be at 1025.32 [10 x 956.1 + 3768.20]/[13]. The 53 week moving average would be 1,173.75. In this example, the 13 week m/a would be below the 53 week m/a on 12/25/98. The important point to realize is that the 13 week and 53
week m/a would have converged at some point in time between 10/23/98 and
12/25/98. That is when the waves of NDX futures would have started. I realize this is very crude, but you should take away one thing from all of this. As we the weeks go by, successively lower NDX closes will occur, and it will culminate in a wave of NDX futures selling. The fact that the 13/53 week NDX m/a lines have not yet converged is a major reason why the crash has not yet occurred.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:57
cherokee () ID#288231: -
why america thinks it has to run the world...
http://www.theatlantic.com/atlantic/issues/96jun/schwarz/schwarz.htm
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:56
cherokee () ID#288231: -
jorlin....
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:54
cherokee () ID#288231: -
the truth about the news-media..
http://www.fas.org/2000/conspiracy_commerce.htm
mouth-pieces for those who are name-less...... - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:53
cherokee () ID#288231: -
read what they would not print..
http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/j28.html - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:51
cherokee (@.....realistic.IS.KNOWN!) ID#288231: -
eliades and arch crawford...
archie speaks to realistic in his opening sentence!
incredible! they know of him too!!!
http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/petearch.htm
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:24
EJ (tolerant1) ID#45173: - Happy B'Day. Hope ya feel better.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:23
cherokee (@.......chop-asaki.city...........chop-asaki..kitco.......chop-asaki....ichibansan...yar.) ID#288231:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
the us$.........
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha66.gif
realistic......
remember your re-posts of my posts on the us$, and where
it was headed? mexico? canada?
what happened? you ridiculed the position....
do you now? your allusions have deluded just
as many as others claim you enlightened...........
your aura reminds me of a yellow light bulb....dis-colored...
no offense aurator....and certainly no relationship...
let the chips fall where they may....somebody has cow-pie breath...
and nothing original....just a tactic of trying to make oneself look
good by making others look bad...an ineffectual tactic itself...
imm.......au and the crude one are the tickets...ALLABOARD!
cherokee!;...wearing.a.gasmask.around.the.smelly.one....
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:10
STUDIO.R (@kitcO........I'm still waxing..............rainy morn' (should be workin' on lyric).......) ID#119358: - The right to speak out is not God given: rather, it is Man taken.
studio.r - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:08
EJ (Off topic, sort of. In case you don't already feel old) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Consider:
The people who are starting college this fall across the nation were born
in 1980.
- They have no meaningful recollection of the Reagan era.
- They were pre pubescent when the Persian Gulf War was waged.
- Black Monday 1987 is as significant to them as the Great Depression.
- Their world has always included AIDS.
- Atari predates them, as do vinyl albums and cassette audiotapes; they may have heard of an 8-track, but probably never actually seen ( or heard ) one.
- From their earliest years, a camera was something you used once and threw away.
- Most have never used a typewriter, only a computer word processor.
- As far as they know, stamps have always cost about 32 cents.
- Few, if any, have lived without an answering machine.
- Few have used a TV set with only 13 channels.
- They were born the year that the Walkman was introduced by Sony.
- The expression you sound like a broken record means nothing to them.
Have a nice day, you old coot.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:08
Speed (Mike Sheller's CRK pick) ID#29048: - http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=CRK&d=t
up 32.73% yesterday.....on heavy volume... way to go Mike!! - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:04
Speed (Bulls charge but does bear trap await?) ID#29048: - http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/981016/bvd.html
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 09:01
Speed (TVX analysis) ID#29048: - This is pretty definitive.... and positive...target 2.75.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-6042385 - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:59
ptwoskool (RJ) ID#225369:
Copyright © 1998 ptwoskool/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Take whatever satisfaction you may in that those boys who hound you probably lost a bundle betting your way on platinum and silver.
You know,I am really suspicious of someone who is an expert on whatever subject happens to come along.I swear,I think a couple of the posters are my older brother in disguise.He knows everything.It's the tone and the inflection of his voice he uses to spin his yarn that drives me nuts.
Anyway,whether you make bad or good calls-whether you are reasonable or ebullient- I will listen.I have never detected swaggering in your posts,just confidence.I want to think you're trying to help us.Whenever you rail against those who persecute you,I think to myself: RJ must have a brother like mine.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:55
tolerant1 (I have a hangover the size of) ID#31868: - Alaska...my teeth are numb...
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:51
sharefin (Not waving but drowning) ID#284255: - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/finance/4199998.htm
--------------------------------------------------------------
In the 'Weekend Australian' in the 'Personal Finance' section on page 2 there is a great article on gold.
Unfortunately it's not available on the net.
For any Aussie goldbugs this is an excellant read. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:49
STUDIO.R (@ohmy..........) ID#119358:
Copyright © 1998 STUDIO.R/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Friends, know you that this has been MINIMALIZED by management ( and carefully considered by attorneys ) :
The majority of the Company's derivative transactions are short-term in duration, with approximately $67.1 Billion of notional or contract amounts maturing within one year of which approximately $64 Billion mature within three months.
.....which may impair the counterparties' ability to satisfy their obligations to the company
...may require the Company to pledge client securities as collateral in support of various secured financing sources such as bank loans, securities loaned and...
..these activities may expose the Company to off-balance sheet risk in the event a client is unable to fullfill its contractual obligations.
The above information was given to us by HighRise. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:37
STUDIO.R (@Bully Beef.O................) ID#119358: - I am sick to the pit of my stomach by the Prudebtial disclosure, I will not sleep for some time. To me, Highrise's post of 00:35 is the most important information I have been given by Kitco.
Think of all the thought given the careful wording of these statements by attorneys, managers, etc.. This is ominous...this is what Greenspan knows, and there is much more. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:31
Bully Beef (I don't think I would feel comfortable with with Prudentials statement either. ) ID#259282: - All my funds are with a large Canadian bank and they just incorporated the funds part of their organization. I am worried maybe they are exposed as well and want to separate these risks from the main part of the bank. This way the FUNDS could fail and the BANK remain in tact.Simply ...I'm not comfortable with this decision and declare my concern. Does anyone else deal with BANK of MONTREAL? In God we Trust...all others pay cash.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:24
STUDIO.R (@Oh me of little faith.) ID#119358: - Now as a man of fifty years, I am one of few faiths.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 08:05
STUDIO.R (@HighRise.OO............your double-0:35, this a.m...............) ID#119358: - If what is contemplated in Prudebtial's ominous disclaimers is true; and if the evolution described were to go to fruition; my family and I would be greatly indebted to you for bringing this to our attention.
We shall act Monday morning.
May the gods continue to bless you and yours. thank you.
studio.r - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 07:54
STUDIO.R (@my dear kitcOistas.............) ID#119358: - yes, KitcO is the light, and we are the Bugs drawn to it.
May the Light be eternal. salud!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 07:13
doormat (testing) ID#271182: - cant get it to work !?!?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 05:00
mozel (@private big brother; how to) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Lexis-Nexis, one of the largest online computer database services in the world. Their Ptrax database apparently contains personal information including address, phone number, SS # and mother's maiden name of just about everyone in the U.S. To remove your information from this database, you may write them at the following address:
LEXIS-NEXIS
PO BOX 933
DAYTON, OH 45401-0933
Provide them with your name, address and phone number, and ask that
all personal information be removed from Ptrax.
If you prefer, you may call them at 1-888-965-3947. They have a
large volume of calls, and the wait may be a long one on hold.
To write is to act in the law, but to call is not. It is wiser, therefore, to write and have witnessed the mailing of your request.
P.S. Requests do not work with Big Brother Government - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 03:34
Hedgehog (Welcome to the chaos we creatively visualised.....................) ID#39857:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Hi Goldteck, the truth is the truth isnt truth. I thought about half a dozen
regular posters had discussed the yen carry months and months ago,
and well when Hedgehogs hedge collapsed due to the forces of
Mother Nature and lolls all over the front garden, you have to
admit, Kitco has already been there every time the sh!t has hit the fan.
Scratch a little deeper grasshopper, hold your palms out, ask yourself
questions, feel the energy, and love will come rushing in.
I have been truly awakened at Kitco and have no doubts about the
abilities of many posters here.
T1, I hold my palms out to you, my sons are in the circle, we shout...
...HAPPY BIRTHDAY..... Ummm re your last question to me the answer
is a double yes, but I defer to you on form ....... - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 03:19
Petronius (Let us dream on!) ID#225236:
Copyright © 1998 Petronius/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - What is going on with the markets?
Let's go back to 1992. Dollar going to the toilet ( where it belongs ) , trade deficit soaring, people for the very first time starting to worry seriously about the DEBT, Perot's little infomercials gaining a lot support.
What was going on? Money printing, or rather E-magically creating out of nowhere. At one point dollar was worth less than 80 Japanese yen.
The dollar and the T-bonds should have become toilet paper then. Sure it would have been tough if they did then, but what was the alternative?
However, somehow, the US managed to talk Japan and other key countries into letting their money machines turned on as well to save the dollar. Add to it some hedge fund magic ( yen carry, gold carry, etc ) and voila - instant paradise was created. Dollar is king! The US stock market is in the sky! You say Japan committed suicide to save the dollar?! Who cares!
So what is wrong with all that from an American perspective? It is all insane, it is an act of desperation, a final stupid trick that postponed inevitable, that caused a very very bad situation to be traded for much much worse several years later.
Had we taken the medicine in 1992 it would have been bad. We would have food shortages and riots, probably a civil war. The fact that we did not only made sure that the resulting crisis that will eventually come will pound us all back to the stone age. It matters not if we have deflation or hyperinflation. Majority of the population will have no means to purchase the necessities. Mob that for years has been bread to support the big government will pound the US infrastructure into dust once the government stops delivering free lunches.
Make no mistake about it! We are past the point of no return! Every attempt will be made to keep the house of cards from falling a little longer.
But let us dream one week longer!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 03:17
RJ (..... Bart .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
If you again ask me to take it to K2, could you please direct others to do so as well? The ceaseless attacks by Gunrunner and the farfel are made on this forum, not on K2. How would you suggest I deal with them?
I am happy to take it to K2, it is these folks who insist on papering this site with their attacks. Do you suggest that they continue on with their mean ways and I should only respond on K2? This seems unfair.
I am always happy to cooperate, and am a great supporter of this site. I love the place when acrimony is thin. K2 is the perfect venue to blow off built up K1 steam. I believe you wrote that the farfel was aware of your wishes also. Although you granted him a banning pardon, he has not yet taken your words to heart. This site has once again dissolved into scorn and unkind feelings.
When these same things happen whenever certain posters arrive, one can draw the conclusion that they are, in some certain measure, creating the problems.
Anyway, I am happy to take it to K2.
I wish the rest would follow your instructions.
OK
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 03:04
James (A fascist State@Just because Waco & Ruby Ridge occurred there) ID#252150: - within 2 yrs. No. You live in a vertible utopia. Only 10% of your population is in prison & 5% of the population controls 95% of the wealth. No doubt about it, if you can keep several billion people living in abject poverty you will be able to maintain your highly vaunted standard of living & decadent lifestyle going for at least...oh, maybe another 18 months.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:51
MM (EJ not) ID#350282: - I meant RJ sorry.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:50
MM (EJ) ID#350282: - Damn, I scrolled past that one. Thanks.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:40
RJ (..... PS .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
If I had not myself, brought forth into the light my own two greatest miscalls in these markets, silver short last December, and long platinum this summer, I am convinced others would have done it for me. I prefer to live with the words I write and the decisions I make, not run from them.
Since the farfel had his epiphany, he has only shouted PLATINUM $400 at me a few dozen times. Sorry that I beat him to the punch and dragged my mistakes into the light before he did, otherwise, he just might have scooped me on the story.
Since I do not run, from my past, I stand here again to wait for the farfel's or the gunny's petulant words. They will again tell us who thought platinum was the buy of the year near $400 this summer. But they will not be as polite about it as Realistic has been.
So they practice the same tactics, but oh so much meaner.
THIS is the true difference twixt us all, just how mean can you get?
In the farfel's and the gunny's case, the answer is
DAMN MEAN!
One can never make you a target, if you have nothing to fear.
You are both very unpleasant people.
Yes
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:23
MM (Squirrel) ID#350282: - Hi, I had no idea what I was starting. Bergs & auroras
Hope things are going well in the shop.
Will be changing avocations soon.
Keep warm.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:21
RJ (.... Epiphany! .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
The most effective purveyor of hate on this site has weighed in again with his kind and encouraging words. While running at every turn from his own seriously wrong projections, he now wish pain and discomfort to another poster whose only sin is to ask questions regarding what is posted here.
When one comes to this site, and say in the most unequivocal terms possible, that the world will now end, so kiss our butt goodbye, and are again and again proven wrong, should we all just read the words and give them the same weight as others who repeatedly prove their market acumen? The farfel would like everybody to keep quite about it, particularly since his own projections so often turn out to be wrong. His recent words are but a mild dose of the farfel to come. The foam is dripping from his lips, and the biting will soon commence.
Added to my accurate record on gold, my record on the farfel meltdown is 100%. Folks, we are about to witness another one.
What drives this fellow to wish that people loose there fortunes and are hounded to death? Is it a search for honesty? Since this one rewrites history on a regular basis, honesty can hardly be the motive. Is it concern about the other posters on this site? If so, anybody who has followed his forcefully given advice, has lost major money. Are the farfel's horrible wishes for Realistic, the type of thing we wish to keep reading on this forum?
As he said,
Although you couch your attacks in the form of ever so innocent questions, your intention is to throw incessant ridicule upon the poster I only pray that when the market crash occurs, every single poster on this forum will write you a never-ending series of posts for days and weeks on end questioning your abject stupidity in holding bonds and equities point of disaster. As you sit in front of your brokerage statement contemplating the decimation of your financial worth, I only pray that there are numerous people ringing you on your home phone, mocking you for your unyielding faith in this financial bubble. I hope that there is no corner of this planet that you can hide, that people you have influenced to follow your misguided faith in bonds/equities will hound you until the day you die...AND THEY WILL BLAME YOU!
Farfel, please post your home telephone number. I would guess that, if you believe the words you write, you are deserving of the same treatment you wish on others. Since your own failed pronouncements have proven, many have cause to BLAME YOU!
Also, I would like to question your most recent flag waiving patriotism. It seems as if your hate of our country is again surfacing with the foam on your lips.
Any notion that America still maintains a level playing field in the markets is mere fantasy. The entire game is rigged. America is no longer a free enterprise nation any more. It has evolved into a fascist nation.
I take great offence at your calling the greatest nation on earth fascist. The only fascist philosophy I see on these pages, is your own. I know you hate America, as is evident in much of your writings, but please take you attacks on our great nation elsewhere. Love it or leave, pal. The real problem I see in our government, is the criminal president we now have. The same one you claimed to have campaigned for, and the same one you have defended for his numerous breaches of the law and the American faith. By the way, how's Al?
When I read the following words I had to stifle a laugh:
Although I acknowledge guilt in using excessively strident tactics against gold bears, PM technicians, etc., when I first posted on this forum ( a case of fighting fire with fire ) , I eventually arrived at an epiphany and realized that the tactic is both inappropriate and inhumane..
Just when did you reach this epiphany, fella'? Was it in the minutes after posting your last hate filled post. It certainly could not have been before, as your rabid attack mode is full swing. In the last week you have berated, with obscenities and hate, several posters, including myself. Is this part of the epiphany? I would have a hard time describing any of your recent writings as anything but inappropriate and inhumane.
Many here, including the farfel have complained that ANOTHER was treated unfairly. One argument, which was also made by the farfel, was that ANOTHER was so polite, such a gentleman. Forget that he comes to us under a false face, he was nice about it, yes?
Realistic has never insulted anybody on this site that I can see. His posts are polite and respectful. He is following up on poster projections. How is this not valid? The very folks who now complain about Realistic, shout with glee as good people loose money during market drops, and will rub another posters nose in each mistaken call. But now the farfel, freshly loaded with his noble epiphany, comes to us in his pious mode to say how unfair it all is.
The farfel's words are here for all to see. What truly makes me wonder, is how the fellow could show his face around here. How can he post a wish of destruction and hate and end the post with his holy epiphany? This is a mind that does not even know what it just said.
I think I finally have the guy figured out.
He never has read a word he has posted.
If he has, he would hide in shame, rather than continue to wish harm and losses on others.
We will watch the farfel meltdown together, yes?
Yes
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:19
Squirrel (Fire & Ice) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - GAGNRAD: Thanks for the climate links at 00:14. I bookmarked a few.
NTEOTWAWKI - Pinatubo, as you noted, blew 4 cubic km. of ash, much of it into the stratosphere where it didn't wash out for several years. I noticed this haze the first winter ( which was a whopper for snow here in the Colo. Rockies ) and this haze was still visible five years later. A volcanic eruption like Pinatubo injects greenhouse gases but also dust which cools. The net effect from Pinatubo was enough cooling to stall the medium-term rise within the long-term cooling that JTF noted. Overall I believe our fossil fuel consumption and other activities may eventually stall the long-term cooling and forestall an iceage. THUS GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD - just ask any of us living in cold, snowbound climates ( it snowed up here today ) . The often cited potential of a 5 degree celsius ( 9 degree F ) rise is more than welcome here. Summer days might get into the high 80's much of the time and winters would be a month shorter! }:- ) ) ) ) )
But those living within a few meters of sea level would not agree. And a few meter rise is only a fraction of the 75 meter rise if Antarctica thawed out.
GRANT:
Ocean volume = 2 x 10^9 cubic km, Ocean surface area = 361 x 10^6 sq. km.
Increase in volume from 10 deg.C to 11 deg.C is 1.000095 which yields a sea level rise of 0.526 meters or 1.73 feet.
A 5 deg. C rise from ( 10°C to 15°C ) = 1.0006 = a rise of 3.32 meters or 10.9 feet ( how would THAT affect coastal habitations? ) ( do the degree symbols display okay on Windows machines? )
P.S. Ocean water is a huge sink for carbon dioxide. A rise in its temperature would cause CO2 to come out of solution - a process which increases the greenhouse effect leading to higher temperatures and yet more dis-solution of CO2 - a positive feedback loop.
( If too many summer days got into the 90's I'd consider moving higher since hot air makes for short tempers. )
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:17
mozel (@Sheller) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - In the hyperinflation of the assignat which led to the fall of the monarchy in France, the cause was emitting bills while selling off the church land that was the original collateral. But, what is the collateral behind a federal bond ?
Since Social Security is not actually a liability of the government because there are no contractual rights and since the tax collected goes into the general fund of revenue like any other tax revenue according to the Supreme Court, the bond market rightfully considers the federal budget to be balanced. And the payment of interest to be secure. So far as I can tell this is the whole difference between USG and Brazil G debt.
A systemic risk to USG is default on payment of interest on its borrowings. Or a debt market which ceases to function because of corporate high grade bond default. The latter could precipitate the former and counterparty default in a foreign currency could precipitate the latter.
The very moment that the market perceives that interest on bond obligations of USG is in jeapordy, you have hyperinflation. But, its symptom could be 50% interest as is the case in Brazil as we speak.
The point that we do not know what things are worth is very profound.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:05
EJ (Zzzzzzzzz.) ID#45173: - G'Nite.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 02:03
MM (Well it's late here, so) ID#350282:
Copyright © 1998 MM/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Przytula__A Yes and no
Mozel god I hate to ask this, but what precisely is the issue with the moon walk? Seriously, you've piqued my interest. Perfect insulator?
Cyclist - thanks.
To all: should I apologize for throwing those bits of chum out on Kitco?
oh, here's what I was going to post this am ( but hitting the alt+### thing royally rogered it )
Predictions DOW 1998-10-16 to validate F*'s statement on predictions
9:30 to 10:00 hangover carryover up to 8347
[pretty close]
10:00 to 11:30 falling feather retrace to 8245
[very wrong - try pop to 8410 and slide to 8375]
11:30 to 12:30 slow momentum upswing to 8320
[wrong - how 'bout bottoming at 8350...]
12:30 to 13:00 short, sharp spike to 8410 ( hi Mike )
[well a spike, but only to 8400]
13:00 to 14:00 profit taking 8345
[wrong - a slide to 8380]
14:00 to 15:00 uncertainty slide 8320 ( boring )
[very wrong - rise to 8428]
15:00 to 16:00 IDCIBMS strength 8378 ( apologies to F* )
[wrong - dip & rise to 8416]
in sum, a modest up day ( 0.5 to 1.5% ) .
[on the button - but that was easy]
Now the XAU. hoping for a close in the 75.5 to 76.5 area
[O.K - closed at 76.35 BIG target]
What of spot? 302.2 to 303.0 at 14:30
[Extremely wrong closed at 299.80]
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:55
EJ (The Household Balance Sheet) ID#45173: - The overall growth of household assets, moreover, has exceeded the growth of liabilities. Primarily due to a rise in equities, household debt-to-asset ratios fell in 1995.
http://www.clev.frb.org/research/APR96ET/hsheet.htm
...due to the rise in equities... Ah, yes. And what happens to that debt-to-asset ratio when the market goes down, how many individuals become insolvent?
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:48
EJ (Brazil will not fall, says the IMF's Camedesus) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - But others say: BRAZIL: On a Course to Crisis
The crisis is being created by capital flight due to international financial turmoil, extraordinary amounts of short-term debt due in the coming weeks, and the high current account and fiscal deficits.
( snip )
If Lula da Silva gains unexpected strength before the first round, both foreign and domestic investors would sell into a bear market. The candidate’s constituency expects public spending to create jobs and restore job security. Cardoso reforms are in jeopardy if this occurs, and the currency and economic crisis would occur during October. This development has a high 40-60 probability because the economy will grow only about 1.0% this year, and a recession is anticipated for 1999-2000. Industrial production is stagnant, and the unemployment rate in mid-1998 was 7.83%, a high level for Brazil. This has become a central issue in the presidential campaign.
http://www.beri.com/ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:41
mozel (@Currency War part 2) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Suppose I am correct that the hedge funds are akin to privateers on commission to harass and capture the ships of the enemy. What then has happened recently ?
There has been a very successful ambush. There are many privateers sunk, many drifting without sails, many with decks awash in blood, many limping to a friendly port for repairs. Since many of these were outfitted at the expense of the Sovereign, there has been a defeat of the Sovereign by proxy.
The Sovereign is the greenback, of course. A story was leaked that the run up of the yen was a co-ordinated BOJ/US event. Maybe. But, to believe it, you have to also be willing to believe the Sovereign has betrayed his own privateers into ambush.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:39
GeoGeoff__A (People) ID#432136: -
The people of this country are just a bunch of sheep with a bad shepard running the flock! THey are about to make the same mistakes their grandparents did back in the 30's with the sucker's rally that Green spam and his buddies have cooked up. These must be the people that slept through History class. I guess history is doomed to repeat itself. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:38
James (GREENSPAM never accomplished anything in the private sector. He is) ID#252150: - nothing but a bumbling, vastly overrated bureaucat. And he will go down in history as the worst Fed Chairman ever.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:28
snowbird (Armstrong article copywright belongs to ) ID#285392: - Martin Armstong PEI not myself
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:27
snowbird (Martin Armstrong article) ID#285392:
Copyright © 1998 snowbird All rights reserved -
Subject: PRINCETON ECONOMICS: New article by Martin Armstrong; Seminar Info; tapes; etc
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 22:15:41 -0400
Thank you for registering to our web site. No doubt many of you were
encouraged when the FED unexpectedly lowered rates. The talking heads
on CNBC and CNN have soothed many nerves, but because you took the time
to register, we'd like to warn you that the worst may not yet be in.
The stock market is still vulnerable to a move to 6500 on the DOW or
844-757 on S&P Dec contract. Incidentally our Timing Models indicate
Weekly Panic Cycles for most major currencies. This will likely impact
the stock market.. In case you're wondering, a Panic Cycle is a model
that tries to predict in advance the probability of an Outside Day ( or a
day when the range is greater than that of the previous day ) . We see
Tuesday 10/20 and Friday 10/23 as the key days to watch next week.
Panic Cycles do not indicate direction, but given that the market is
rallying into this timeframe and given that we have a brick wall of 3
weekly bullish reversals at 1125.20 1127.90 1129.40 basis December
contract, we believe the upside is limited. Do you really want to
riska potential over 250 points down for a potential 50 points up?
Maybe you will want to hold off establishing a Short Postion until you
see more evidence of weakness, but you sure as heck don't want to be
long going into next week.
One broker told us that out of 350 clients he serves, not one person
wished to move money from the stock market into the safefty of a money
market fund. NOT ONE! If you consider yourself contrarian ( which of
course everyone does ) , what does that tell you?
It tells me that the proverbial frog is happy in his jacuzzi even though
the temprerature has been rising since July 20th, 1998. It will take a
lot of pain to cause the average investor to panic. The average
investor,having been long the market for over 3 years, is nowhere near
his pain threshold. Perhaps this will not be true for much longer.
For a more detailed discussion on the vulnerabilities of the stock
market see the new article on the web by our chairman, Martin Armstrong.
Go to our web site:
http://www.pei-intl.com
Click on MAIN
On the White Page click on the article title: Lower Rates--Bullish or
a Bearish Omen
For a discussion on the Reversal System, click here:
http://www.pei-intl.com/Publications/Y1991/M0891/REVERSAL.H
TM
It is still not too late to attend our Annual Seminar in Vancouver BC,
but you will have to act fast.
For information click here:
http://www.pei-intl.com/SEMINARS/1098CONF.HTM
If you cannot attend the seminar but would like to order the tapes
( $295 ) click here:
http://www.pei-intl.com/SEMINARS/1098conformb.htm
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:23
mozel (@EJ) ID#153110: - I have noticed a widespread lack of understanding of the substance of words. Orwell named it as well as anybody: NewSpeak and DoubleSpeak. AG is not immune to one of the public diseases of the mind of our time.
But, you can't fool Mother Nature with words. And I think we mean a natural force subject only to natural law when we use the word market.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:21
HighRise (Surprise, Surprise) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
LITTLE ROCK ( AP ) - President Clinton's deposition from Paula Jones' sexual harassment lawsuit is not on file with the court, the judge said Friday.
The federal court said it would not release copies of depositions from the case's principals when the court file is opened Monday because it discovered there is no record of the president's Jan. 17 videotaped deposition with the court.
U.S. District Judge Susan Webber Wright said a review of the sealed depositions show transcripts of Mrs. Jones' and separate defendant Danny Ferguson on file, but not Clinton's.
The court said it would be unfair to release Mrs. Jones and Ferguson's without releasing the president's.
A portion of Clinton's deposition was filed in Mrs. Jones' written pleadings before the court. Those excerpts already have been on the public record. There was no explanation for why the complete file wasn't among the 214 sealed documents at the court. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:20
EJ (TheMissingLink) ID#45173: - Yes! That's exactly the point. Debt is ok as long as assets are growing faster than liabilities. But when the recession hits full force next quarter, assets will shrink faster than liabilities. The frenzy of credit liquidation will cause the market for securitized consumer debt to implode. And then there's the question of debt/asset ratios for various income levels. I bet the folks with the lowest incomes have the highest levels of debt to income.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:16
mozel (@T1 Happy Cyber Birthday) ID#153110: - Many happy returns.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:15
EJ (mozel ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Greenspan actually thinks he can outsmart the markets. Once they have their way with him and the liquidation panic begins, Greenspan will go down in the history books as the most arrogant and foolish Fed chairman ever. He will be vilified and despised.
He makes a subtle intellectual distinction between the evils of Government intervention in markets when the HK government buys stocks and responsible monetary management when the Fed gets a bunch of obscenely wealthy guys together to figure out how to keep them from pulling down the world financial system with their stupid schemes ( Are we supposed to believe that AG was unaware of the LTCM before it blew up? ) and for an encore inflates the money supply by nearly 10% IN ONE YEAR, drops interest rates and gets a 7% stock market rally.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:09
NTEOTWAWKI (@gagnrad) ID#390337: - Here is a thought about the global climate and the World Bank and the IMF. The media is filled with the great gnashing of teeth over the destruction of the rainforest. In Brazil in particular this scenario would not have played out without the massive infusion of cash into Brazil. The government subsidies to farmers for slash and burn agriculture is probably ultimately derived from the above sources. So ... Why not set the eco-culture's sights on the IMF?
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:08
HighRise (HK Gold) ID#401460: -
Hong Kong-Gold
HONG KONG ( AP ) - Gold in Hong Kong opened at $299.95 an ounce on Saturday, down 20 cents from Friday's close of $300.15.
HighRise
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:07
TheMissingLink (EJ) ID#373403: - http://www.dri.mcgraw-hill.com/fofa05.htm
Consumer spending will slow in response to the fall in stock prices. The saving rate will edge up from its postwar low of 0.4%. Household debt is at a record level, hitting 99% of dis- posable income in the second quarter. Although liabilities are at a record high, assets have soared even higher. The question, however, is whether the households with the liabilities are the ones with the assets. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 01:00
EJ (Rack) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - You make good points. I'd add that 1998 isn't even like 1987.
1 ) When the Fed pumped liquidity into the markets after the '87 crash, the world was poised for a massive expansion as investment went into new productivity-increasing technologies and new fast-growth emerging economies and out of non-productive military applications, and capacity was low. Now all of these major expansionary trends are reversed.
2 ) US citizens were far less deeply in debt. Did you know that the AVERAGE adult in the US has not three or four but NINE credit cards? That's the average. The AVERAGE has a balance of $5,000 on those cards! I wonder what the average ratio of credit card debt to income is. No doubt a very scary number. I don't have any credit card debt, so some jerkweed has $10,000. My sister told me the other day she has $8,000 of credit card debt and asked me whether that was bad, this after she bragged about her recent stock market successes. I can't think of any long-term stock market investment that's going to compensate for the 18% interest she's paying on those cards. I told her to sell $8,000 worth of stock Monday and pay the things off.
Sheesh.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:56
Obsidian (Rack: some quick current figures:) ID#237299: - since 1980 to present, for ever dollar increase in disposable income we've increased spending by $1.25. Revolving credit represents 40% of all consumer debt. More money is now in mutual funds than in home equity. With the little invention of 125% mortgages this probably means Ma and Pa Kettle no longer have *any* real equity whatsoever either in their homes or the goodies inside it.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:47
Goldteck ( Welcome to the new world disorder) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Has the earthquake run its course? The truth is, no-one knows. Anyone who tells you they foresaw the events of the last two months is a liar. Anyone who predicts what will happen in the next few is a fool. Best Regards Goldteck http://www.afr.com.au/content/981017/perspective/perspective1.html ######Do you want the bad news .If Corby and Purchase are right, the conditions are in place for the worst global recession in 60 years. If they are too optimistic, the world will enter a depression to rival the Great one. I'm not a pessimistic person. My family can't believe it when I say I'm known as a doomsayer, says Corby, a clean-cut, white-shirted former Department of Finance operative.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/981017/perspective/perspective4.html
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:45
Goldteck ( Welcome to the new world disorder) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Has the earthquake run its course? The truth is, no-one knows. Anyone who tells you they foresaw the events of the last two months is a liar. Anyone who predicts what will happen in the next few is a fool. Best Regards Goldteck http://www.afr.com.au/content/981017/perspective/perspective1.htmlDo you want the bad news .If Corby and Purchase are right, the conditions are in place for the worst global recession in 60 years. If they are too optimistic, the world will enter a depression to rival the Great one. I'm not a pessimistic person. My family can't believe it when I say I'm known as a doomsayer, says Corby, a clean-cut, white-shirted former Department of Finance operative.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/981017/perspective/perspective4.html - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:43
Rack (the 1930's versus the 1990's) ID#411163:
Copyright © 1998 Rack/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Anyone have any thoughts on how the lack of equity will effect the average person today in a crash as compared to the 1929 crash? I believe that in the 1929 crash most people had little debt. This time even if the money was real, everyone I know is living with no savings at all. Its all debt. I think this time the drop will feed on itself so fast nothing will survive. The average guy is leveraged just like LTCM and unless he has several wives, all with good jobs, he will just give up as his net worth will disapear in the first week.Also,later I think we should be looking at the 1 oz of gold buying a good suit-with one exception I think that is true, the exception is a crash. If Homestake rose 600% from 1929 to 1932, the cost of living dropped 90% in many cases. So, would not 600% have to be multiplied by 10?
I think yes. This time that # could be many multiples of 1929.
Off to bed-have to go out of town tomorrow.
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:39
mozel (@DOW) ID#153110:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - We have lived for seventy years as a nation with the fiction that fiat credit paper is money. Can we live for seventy years with the fiction that these are free markets ? As long as I can remember, people have camped out on the doorstep of the federal reserve and read tea leaves to guess the direction of interest rate policy. All the while pretending that the markets were free. Because this is a free country. And on the other side of the iron curtain they were not free.
Well, thinkk of Alan Greenspan as Commissar of Money, if you please. It's closer to truth than to say the exchanges and markets are free.
What we have in the DOW is the effect when people see a risk free ride. And when there is a hint in the opposite direction, the move in that direction will be as magnified. These are the ever widening oscillations of an unstable system that can no longer be damped because the word is out. The word is The Fix Is In. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:37
Obsidian (EJ: I am going to print your response and repeat it 10 times) ID#237299: - every morning and every night. To heck with my prayers. It will be my new mantra. The market will dump...the market will dump. Got a nice ring to it. Thanks!
Yes, actually, I DO thinks it's a suckers rally, my guts been telling me that things are going to hell in a handbag for about two months- very strongly telling me. It's *exactly* the same feeling I had in 87. That same weird apprehension. That's whats left me so discouraged watching the crony capitalism. Money changers in the temple. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:35
HighRise (Your Broker's Statement of Financial Condition) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Have you read the disclaimers in their most recent statements. They are very bluntly stating that their trading partners may default on them.
The majority of the Company's derivative transactions are short-term in duration, with approximately $67.1 Billion of notional or contract amounts maturing within one year of which approximately $64 Billion mature within three months.
.....which may impair the counterparties' ability to satisfy their obligations to the company
...may require the Company to pledge client securities as collateral in support of various secured financing sources such as bank loans, securities loaned and...
..these activities may expose the Company to off-balance sheet risk in the event a client is unable to fullfill its contractual obligations.
No wonder Ralph Ackempora looked like he had a load in his pants the last few weeks.
From Prudential Securities Consolidated Statement.
If you read the SEC disclosure information for just about all of the Banks, Brokers, Insurance cos. etc. you will see that they are all over leveraged in the Derivative markets and are cross invested with each other, therefore no one has any idea of how severe the problem is.
HighRise
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:27
EJ (Obsidian ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - It is the collective belief that the Fed has created that the market cannot dump that will cause excessive risks to be taken that will eventually cause it to dump. The bulls have been saying that if you read on the cover of Newsweek that the market's gonna crash, then you should pour money into the markets. Conversely, if two weeks later the world believes that a half percent rate drop in the US is going to bring Japan out of a deflationary depression ( we are at the edge of disaster ready to make a great leap forward ) , and solve Brazil's currency problems, then we're in for a huge crash. Does this not have all the hallmarks of a true suckers' rally?
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:25
Suspicious (S&P's average P/E ratio must be something else ) ID#287312: - With profits having fallen so badly and this big rally. Does anyone know what it is now? 35 45 85 187.3
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:21
tolerant1 (Third in the Great House of ARAGORN...41 be me...) ID#31868: - Truly...a Friend...crying over runs me now...Namaste'gulps and puffs to YA!!!
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:20
EJ (TheMissingLink) ID#45173: - Where did the money go? Gollum thinks it went overseas as Treasuries and that we'll get bigtime inflation when foreigners cash them in.
It's very bearish that the Fed boys are patting themselves on the back two days after dropping rates and spurring a quick rise in the stock markets after months of decline. Another way to read the statement is that they are massively relieved to have averted a real catastrophe, for now.
-EJ - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:16
Obsidian (Since my puts got putzed today, I think I'll throw in the ) ID#237299:
Copyright © 1998 Obsidian/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - towel on Monday and by calls. Perhaps if I'm a good Sheeple and bahhh
with the crowd, I can make a little money. I remember in 87 I had been doing nicely in options. Strictly composit index, puts and calls, and a few days before the crash I went to my broker, ( back in the horse and buggy days, when one went to see one's broker ) , and I placed a large option order for puts. He talked me out of it. I need not say more.
In weak moments I fume over it still. Determined NOT to miss that little oportunity again this time. I have yet to let reality sink in that the world is a much changed place. And the government plays dirty with our market. It will probably never dump, because AG wills it thus. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:14
gagnrad (NTEOTWAWKI, Tortfeaser, et al) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - NTEOTWAWKI, nice handle! Must have cost you a lot! ( 8-^ ) )
Tort, IMHO comparing Gore to der Shlickmeister is like comparing Hess or Speer to Hitler. While the personality is different the politics are the same. I don't think a world with Gore's kind of platinum boom would be fun at all.
All, here is a copy of some of my notes re ice age and climatological URLs. Some are kindergarten level, others more difficult to understand or relate to. One will notice that they don't agree.
long wave climatological news page
http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/k101397.html
more interesting climate cycles page
http://energy.er.usgs.gov/products/abstracts/AAPG_97/climatic.htm
one theory of interest
http://www.california.com/~rpcman/stanley.htm
headlines re CO2 reclamation
http://naturalscience.com/ns/nshome.html
ice age links page
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ice/resources.html
another theory of interest
http://www.geocities.com/Athens/2707/palc.html
the most likely cause of global warming
http://culter.colorado.edu:1030/~saelias/glacier.html - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:06
TheMissingLink (Peter R. Fisher) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Manager of the System Open Market Account
and Executive Vice President
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
at the
Robert Morris Association's
Conference on Securities Lending
Boca Raton, Florida
October 15, 1998
First, we have learned again that markets depend on confidence, not just in the economic outlook of a firm or a country, but confidence in a core set of assumptions about how creditors and debtors will behave.
Second, we have learned another lesson about the commoditization of risk.
Third, we have learned again the importance of stress testing as a risk management discipline, of the importance of going beyond value-at-risk estimates based on recent historic data.
Fourth, we have learned once again that lending with no initial or minimum haircut -- no minimum excess collateral -- is not without risks.
And finally, we are learning right now about the difference between risk appetites and risk management.
In suggesting that we are learning these lessons over again, I don't think we should be too embarrassed. Everyone who works
for me at the New York Fed knows that I am fond of passing along a saying that my Uncle Leonard picked up from one of his
professors years ago that, the secret of education is redundancy -- and you can say that again. My uncle also recently
reminded me of the story of the man who was asked if he had learned from his mistakes. Yes he replied, I have learned from
my mistakes and now I can repeat them exactly. - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:06
Mole (again) ID#34883: - http://www.fame.org/research/library/Pubs.htm
- Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:04
Mole (=repost=) ID#34883: - Maybe the best online library of gold/money text.
http://www.fame.org/research/library/Pubs.htm - Date: Sat Oct 17 1998 00:00
TheMissingLink (EJ) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 9.57% increase in M3 last 12 months. ( $504B ) GNP growth rate is 5% and Inflation is 2%. Where did the other 2.57% increase in M3 go? It amounts to about $135 Billion.
Could it maybe have been used to inflate the prices of those things not measured by inflation statistics? Alan Greenspan is guilty of selling out the United States to the monied interests. We will all pay through asset deflation, market chaos, recession, and taxpayer bailout of depositors accounts. All because the rich got greedy and could not amass their fortunes in a measured orderly fashion. All because the Federal reserve became very short sighted in their mandate.
The ultimate targets of monetary policy are specified in law as maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.
Easy Al has engineered the greatest fiasco since the depression.
