I rely a lot on the relative movement of metals to provide the hints for constructing the channels. Lately, the movement has been wildly divergent.

I did manage to construct a channel that predicted the reversal in silver. Actually was short at 5.39 for a couple of days. However, I was spooked by the strength of gold, and covered the short at roughly breakeven. Sigh ......

Gold - Broke through the top of long-term down channel. Barely. But no follow-through. And Friday's action is ominous. I took profits on 50% of my RSA gold stocks and will be watching next weeks action closely.

Silver - As mentioned, the channel very accurately predicted the reversal. It now predicts silver will break 4.50 before the decline slows or reverses.

Platinum - Some hope, as PL did not follow silver to new lows. Also, PA broke out the top of the wedge pattern it was in. Will watch next week's action with interest.

Wild and wooly!!

What I mean is it would seem a possible future will include pockets of dieout, genocide, invasion and replacement of one population group with another. While we may continue to focus our worry, money and attention on Europe, US and Russia, I'd think the big pattern will be the an increasing displacement of ethnic Chinese southward, until the population of Australia will be mostly Chinese or perhaps displaced southeast Asians. ( Present day 'Stralians may be kept on as house pets. They are very likable and easy to train. ) I suspect the same will happen in central Africa as well, but there will probably be more of the Semitic ,Indian and European peoples there, perhaps ending with up to 30% mixed European and Mid Eastern and 20% Indian. IMHO

The Japanese may well continue on the forefront of the world for a while longer but their insular and racist nature points more toward continued confinement to their island, another violent breakout like their 1930's style invasions and subsequent defeat. Defeat by China will be much more thorough than WWII, and I'd anticipate they will suffer a fate similar to the Etruscans 2000+ years ago. ( There may be a second alternative for the Japanese. Their human ant farm probably has the only society which could succeed in space colonization within the next 20 years. More on this later if you are interested. ) IMHO

In the end there may be a few hundred thousand racial Africans in Africa left but they are on the decline due to aids and numerous other health related reasons. I believe their biggest 21st century stronghold will be in the US and Brazil, so mixed with Europeans to lose their distinctive racial characteristics, ending up as merely an extreme end of an ethnic moulage. Europe will take on a more Semitic culture, probably Turkish if I read the tea leaves right. IMHO

Well, here are a few links to titillate historical interest:

Linkpage re Irish Famine: http://wwwvms.utexas.edu/~jdana/history/famine.html

Background for discussion re US native genicides of 1600's through 1900's

http://www.dickshovel.com/ind.html

One of many pages from the USC archives, discussing some social stresses of LA. As you know LA is the official US laboratory for social experimentation.

http://www.usc.edu/isd/archives/cityinstress/

Basic junior high level intro to dark age tribes, recalling the end of the Roman empire.

http://www.btinternet.com/~mark.furnival/darkage.htm

Malthus' Essay

http://www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/popu.txt

How does this apply to gold? Well I'm a firm believer that if society is truly falling downhill gold may be a crucial rappelling tool. But, as always pay no atention to Gagnrad. His musings are not meant as any sort of advice.

All: Just upgraded to a P166 with 10ns ram for $400 ( 86MHz memory bus ) -- posting is now a pleasure instead of a chore. Can't afford PII's for every one in family.

The dollar drop is almost certainly derivatives related -- everything is interconnected anyway. Wonder when the next liquidity crisis will turn up. The next one is likely to be more than a twitch.

The Gold bug Tsunami is getting more turbulent -- easier I think to get smashed against the sand.

Well -- if this is serious ( and it probably is ) there will soon be a massive sucking sound as any investors remaining in foreign countries exit to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the fence before the curtains come down.

I don't see any way free trade between countries can continue, if every one clamors for capital flow controls. As we know very well, the 'powers that be' do not understand that the problem is with the fiat/debt economic system -- they are defending something that is dying -- and exchange controls will probably hasten its demise. At best, the world's economic systems will become more severely distorted by 'well meaning' governments -- not less.

If the 'economic domino' proces that began in SEAsia contines, South America will be next, and then Europe. Somewhere in all of this we will hear more of India and Pakistan, and then the US will be last, once again. Wish there was some 'White Night' who could step to the fore and solve all the problems -- but there just isn't anyone out there with the 'right stuff'. Certainly not the IMF, whose track record is no wins no draws -- all losses.

But then -- we should be very careful to support just any White Night -- as he/she may be a Trojan Horse.