One key question -- who is going to get stuck with the bailout bill? The EMU, the US government, or the American people? And -- what has been done with the Brazilian infrastructure to indicate that the bailout funds will have any lasting effect? Is the Brazilian economy any more vibrant than the economies of the SEAsian countries before their financial crisis?

What I fear is that the G7 sets up the last line in the sand, but just delays the inevitable. But, in the process the American people get saddled with some more debt. Still don't know how they will get the money if the IMF can't get $18 billion US.

By the way, what happened to that 1.4 trillion US in debt that went sour when SEAsia folded? Mostly Japanese and European. Rolled over yet?

Auric - G'day. I think you are right. I was just making fun. I am waiting for the day when EVERYONE but 'little ole me' turns in their Mounties leaving ONLY ONE left. MINE! It will be worth SQUILLIONS!!!$$$$$$$$ YAHOOOOOOOOOO!$$$!$$!$!!$!$!$!$!$!$!$!

StudioR - I said he is waitin for the dereg thingy..............damn gubments......screwin the works again.........AGULP-o-rum to ya........sailin' on the good ship..........aaaaargh matey!

away...

Éß

Hillary smiles, waves and hides her pain

WASHINGTON ( CP ) -- The intensity of Hillary Clinton's smile seems to have become more fixed as her public humiliation deepens.

 If she is aching through some personal agony as the seamy details of her husband's dalliance with Monica Lewinsky are given continuous airing, she is hiding her pain behind a brick wall of smiles and waves during a whirlwind of public appearances.

 There have been no cracks in the wall and no public wallowing in misery.

 She doesn't wallow, said Marsha Berry, her spokeswoman.

 Hillary Clinton has not gone into hiding. Fundraisers, 4-H Club events, meetings of feminist Democrats -- she is only too pleased to appear at them all.

 While many Democrats have been shunning Bill Clinton, everyone wants to be with Hillary.

 I think it's remarkable that when you talk to Democratic candidates and consultants, almost to a person, they don't want the president to campaign with them, they do want the first lady, said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

 Hillary's crowds are uniformly adoring. But they also sift through her speeches for some hint of the domestic devestation her husband has wrought.

 The U.S. president has repeatedly referred to the painful work he needs to do to repair his marriage. His wife has never addressed the issue in public. So her body language, her demeanour and her public pronouncements are intensely scrutinized for some sign of turmoil.

 She hasn't given a waiting world a single hint.

 I think there's a lot you can help teach Americans about resilience and hope and grit and determination, she told children last week at the National 4-H Centre in Chevy Chase, Md.

 The remarks were aimed at the adolescents. Who could not have wondered if she were referring to herself?

 How can she absorb the sight of her husband admitting to a nationally television audience that he and Lewinsky enjoyed a series of clumsy Oval Office gropes, while she unknowingly sat one floor above in the White House residence?

 Her spokeswoman repeats a mantra whenever questions are raised about the Clintons' marriage.

 She has made it clear that she supports her husband, she loves him and she forgives him, Berry said.

 She has not only forgiven his indiscretions in the past, she has rescued his political career in the process.

 Her rock-solid support while braying I'm not some little Tammy Wynette during a 60 Minutes appearance with her husband saved Clinton's presidential campaign in 1992, when Gennifer Flowers decided the week before the New Hampshire primary was a good time to let the world know she and then-governor Clinton had been lovers.

 When the vaunted White House crisis machine was gasping and sputtering for days after reports of Clinton's assignation with Lewinsky were initially made public, it was Hillary again who took the wheel.

 She went on national television and blamed the latest threat to her 23-year marriage on a politically motivated prosecutor allied with a vast right-wing conspiracy.

 Her husband's standing in opinion polls soared.

 She hasn't said a word about her since Sept. 11 when Kenneth Starr first laid out the unvarnished details of her husband's latest infidelity.

 Her spokeswoman insists she didn't read the report or watch her husband's videotaped testimony broadcast Monday. She only watches television to catch her home town Chicago Cubs and Sammy Sosa's pursuit of the home-run record.

 Public sympathy has been overwhelming. But Internet sites dedicated to the Clintons are clogged with those who say her insistence on staying with a serial adulterer serves as a bad example to all wronged women.

 How could any real woman stay with a man who has jumped in other women's beds for many years? asked one woman who identified herself as Sue.

 An answer might be found in her childhood in Chicago, when almost all of her friends were rocked by their parents' divorce.

 My strong feelings about divorce and its effects on children have caused me to bite my tongue more than a few times during my own marriage and to think instead about what I could do to be a better wife and partner, she wrote in her book, It Takes A Village.

 So she smiles and buries her pain. She holds hands with her wayward husband at a state dinner for Vaclav Havel and laughs as he mouths the words to Mustang Sally as they rock on the dance floor.

 And when the Peace Corps director introduces her as someone who would make a great overseas volunteer, her response reveals a tiny crack in the brick wall: Maybe I'll just leave this afternoon. Point me in the right direction.

Caper - Ted lives in Swans Island, Maine. He is busting his ass daily building his new digs.....that is all. Put that baby to bed.

Glenn - ¿gold@2-2-5? whoulda thunk it? Hmmmmmmmmm......

away..to scratch my noggin...

Éß

The answer is simple -- she needs him to protect her from serious criminal charges of some kind.

It is also possible that resignation is not an option for WJC, because the shady group that launched him into power might then consider him expendable.

If the above scenario is correct, it is truly unfortunate that America and the American people will have to experience the trauma and disillusionment that could occur. Lets get it over with relatively painlessly, whatever happens.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/exclusiv/980922.exbre_drug_use_prob.html

This may explain why K Starr has only presented his report on Monica Lewinsky so far, hoping that WJC may step down. It is possible that WJC has already been confronted with a list of criminal activity ( such as drug use in the White House ) , and has refused to step down. WJC probably is betting that his popularity and charisma will protect him from anything his attackers can send his way. Reminds me of the Prince of lies.

It looks like the first KS blow has been parried -- now how about the next? And when? Or has KS run out of steam?

Gary Aldrich's comments are especially enlightening about WJC. 'I don't believe he ( WJC ) will go easily'. 'It's going to be a long, dirty battle that will be destructive to the country in many ways.'

Canadians: Please divert your course 15 degrees the South to avoid a collision.

Americans: Recommend you divert your course 15 degrees the North to avoid a collision.

Canadians: Negative. You will have to divert your course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.

Americans: This is the Captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert YOUR course.

Canadians: No. I say again, you divert YOUR course.

Americans: THIS IS THE AIRCRAFT CARRIER USS LINCOLN, THE SECOND LARGEST SHIP IN THE UNITED STATES' ATLANTIC FLEET. WE ARE ACCOMPANIED BY THREE DESTROYERS, THREE CRUISERS AND NUMEROUS SUPPORT VESSELS. I DEMAND THAT YOU CHANGE YOUR COURSE 15 DEGREES NORTH, I SAY AGAIN, THAT'S ONE FIVE DEGREES NORTH, OR COUNTERMEASURES WILL BE UNDERTAKEN TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THIS SHIP.

Canadians: This is a lighthouse. Your call.

I found another candlestick site for you - this is a good one.

http://www.litwick.com/glossary.html

In this context, $20 Billion PER MONTH shouldn't have much of an impact. Sort of like filling the ocean through a garden hose and looking for the effects on the waves. The only time it should show much of an effect is in an uptrending market, especially in times of low volatility.

Candlesticks: Japanese Candlestick Technical Analysis and Beyond Candlesticks by Nison.

Rangy news - Is this good or bad for the stock?

away...to lick wounds

Éßstoppedoutonlytowatchrise

My option strategies will make it ALL right again.......perhaps...eh Kuston?

PATHS - may the fleas of ONE THOUSAND camels infest your nether region............having such words with TOL#1 is not a good way to 'make friends and influence peopleos'.......uh uh. one more thing.......

http:///pub/discussion/FINGER.JPG

uh huh!

TUESDAY

SEPTEMBER 22, 1998

Drug use probed in White House

Reports say 25 percent of staff has history

By David M. Bresnahan

Copyright 1998, WorldNetDaily.com

As heads are still spinning over sex, perjury,

abuse of power and security scandals in the White

House, trained dogs brought in by the Secret

Service detected drug use in and around the Oval

Office, sources tell WorldNetDaily.

While Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr is said

to be aware of the drug problems in the White

House, no mention of such problems were in his

report to Congress. But reports indicate as many

as 25 percent of the White House staff have a

history of illegal drug use, say the sources.

According to security protocols, White House

clearance is supposed to be denied those with

significant illegal drug use. Past administrations

welcomed FBI checks to weed out applicants and

avoid scandal. But the Clinton administration has

stymied FBI efforts to keep known drug users off

the White House staff.

A security clearance is required to gain access to

various parts of the White House and to see

certain documents. Yet, even as an intern, Monica

Lewinsky had a top-level security clearance

which enabled her to gain access to the White

House at any time, day or night. Such access for

an intern was not unusual, just questionable, say

FBI sources. Several sources have reported

independently of each other that Monica

Lewinsky's dress not only had evidence of a

sexual encounter with Bill Clinton, but also traces

of cocaine.

There was a significant amount of cocaine

residue, said one source close to the FBI. Another

source with ties to the White House Secret Service

confirmed the allegations and was astonished the

Starr report does not mention more about the

dress.

The dress is not the only evidence Starr has

regarding drugs in the Oval Office, said the

source.

Former FBI agent Gary Aldrich, who was

stationed at the White House during the Bush and

early Clinton years and who was responsible for

background checks of prospective employees,

confirmed reports that drug users have the run of

the chief executive's offices.

Allegations of drug use have long followed Bill

Clinton throughout his political career. He is

known to have had regular social activity with

Dan Lasater, a convicted cocaine dealer, in

Arkansas during the 1980s. Lasater was arrested

for illegal drug trafficking, along with Roger

Clinton, the president's brother. While Lasater

was in jail, Patsy Thomasson was given power of

attorney to run Lasater's investment business.

That business was suspected of laundering illegal

drug money, according to a former investigator

involved with that case. Lasater was later

pardoned by Gov. Clinton.

The fact that Thomasson was placed in charge of

the White House employee drug-testing program

alarmed Aldrich, who voiced his concerns of

White House security problems in his book

Unlimited Access.

Previous administrations used the FBI

background investigation as a type of screening

process for potential White House employees.

The Clinton administration looked at the FBI as an

obstacle to be overcome, charged Aldrich.

They took a totally cavalier attitude towards

security clearance investigations and totally

disregarded what the FBI brought to them by way

of evidence of serious wrongdoing in a persons

past, said Aldrich. They kept the Secret Service

from even knowing the results of these

investigations. Which of course is absurd. They're

the ones that are supposed to protect the White

House and the president from unsuitable people

in the first place. But they didn't want the Secret

Service to know that upwards of 25 percent of

their staff members had serious experience with

significant illegal drugs, for example.

Drug use was not just by low-level staff. It

included Cabinet-level people too, said Aldrich.

It was like a circus side show in the Clinton

White House, except it wasn't funny and it

certainly wasn't entertaining, he added.

His investigations turned up other problems that

should have also prevented a large number of the

Clinton staff from getting security clearances. He

found many violations of federal laws, failure to

pay student loans, previous employment

dishonesty that resulted in dismissals, refusal to

pay federal income taxes, and some had serious

mental disorders requiring medication to function

and maintain emotional stability.

Aldrich says his information and evidence points

to continued drug use and security problems in

the White House to this very day.

They treated drug use as a normal part of their

lifestyle activity, he said. This was the scary

thing. There was no evidence that they felt

inclined to stop using drugs once they became a

White House employee.

The use of drugs in the White House may be

shocking, but not as shocking as other evidence

Aldrich and other sources claim Starr has not yet

reported to Congress. There is evidence involving

abuse of power surrounding the White House

Travel Office scandal, and the misuse of FBI files.

National security may also have been

compromised when favors were done for Red

Chinese agents in exchange for

multimillion-dollar campaign donations.

Aldrich and other sources speculate that the

failure of Starr to release information on these

scandals may be a deliberate effort to spare the

country the agony of dealing with such difficult

subjects.

Perhaps as a country we would have difficulty

going there to determine that the president, or

some of his people in fact were involved in

treasonous matters, said Aldrich. So maybe it's

just easier to let him off the hook on a sexual

escapade matter. I don't know. Ken Starr's had

four years and lots and lots of FBI agents to look

into all these things, but I don't think Ken Starr's

empowered to make these kinds of lofty huge

decisions on how to proceed. If in fact these

reports are softballs on Travelgate and Filegate,

then I'm going to be suspicious that somebody or

somebodies have sat down and decided that it's

just not politically digestible to report what

Clinton has actually done.

Aldrich speculates that Starr may be hoping

Clinton resigns rather than face the music of more

serious wrongdoing. But the former FBI agent

does not believe that strategy will work. He says

Clinton thinks he can overcome such scandals.

I don't believe he's going to go easily, says

Aldrich. It's going to be a long, dirty battle that

will be destructive to the country in many ways.

David Bresnahan, a WorldNetDaily contributing

editor, hosts Talk USA Investigative Reports

and is the author of Cover Up: The Art and

Science of Political Deception. His email address

is David@talkusa.com.

© 1998 Western Journalism Center

Now, what would happen if those same attitudes were applied to the purchase of precious metals? 'I don't know why I'm buying it, but it's done good things...' Somehow, we've got to 'spin' an ad campaign out of this. Yes, I think this could be very good for what ails us. :- )

And the second group from the above could be the Central Bonkers?

The ossified organization responds to all current crises in the same manner, triggering a highly predictable unfortunate temporal sequence of events, hence the watch handcuffs.

Do you know of any country that has successfully followed IMF recommendations? This is much more than just the inherent problems with FIAT currencies per se.

I guess this cartoon could also represent the Japanese bureaucracy, or any bureaucracy that has had enough time to get set in its ways, like our own Merican Federal Government.

When you get to the point of trying to predict future events, an avaeraged composite of all previous cyclic events of that kind would be best. The idea would be to catalogue all repetitive events, either linear or nonlinear, in the hope that a predictive model can be created. This is presumably the essence of the MRCI model, and the Jeil model, undoubtedly created with similar, but different methods.

Analysis of such a model would need to be iterative, as the rules could change abruptly when major events shape the market response, such as the discovery the WJC might have been doing drugs in the White House, or the Bank of Japan discovers that they are insolvent due to a 'rogue' trader. Who knows what nasty surprises lurk out there?

Wouldn't it be nice if we could catalogue the nature of major surprise events so that we could predict new aperiodic outcomes? Catastrophe/Fibonacci theory would predict such a possibility, IMHO. Of course this requires that the analyst is sufficiently skilled to know the difference between a 'routine' event that does not disrupt former patterns, and a 'new, catastrophic' event that completely reshaps the market periodicity. Tall order, IMHO.

Rolly -

You're right - there are a number of books around on Japanese Candlesticks.

I'm sorry, but can't really recommend one over another as introductory texts, and I don't personally own any of them. Most of the candlestick information I know, was just picked up a little along.

The prices for the books are pretty high ( $50-60 ) and a couple are available at

http://www.amazon.com

but I would try to get one from the library if you can, before buying. I did find this additional site from iqc which looks pretty interesting:

http://www.iqc.com/analysis/candle/

By the way, I believe that among the services that iqc has available to subscribers, is an automated candlestick recognition program.

New York Futures:

Gold TURNING BEARISH

Silver, Copper BEARISH

Platinum VERY BEARISH

Palladium CAUTION

Click on Global Market View ( Left Menu )

then click on Item #4. ( Right Menu )

http://www.peicommerce.com/HMEFRAME.HTM

You might try a search of this site for some additional ideas on your cyclical pattern analysis problem.

http://www.traders.com/S&C_homepg.html

One problem with trial and error is that if you home in on the wrong periodicity, you may get fooled into missing something more significant than what you actually found. Something like using Newton's analysis manually but missing the most interesting signal peak.

Ever use wavelet analysis for signal extraction?

Hope all is well --Kitco hasn't been graced by your posts for a few days.

With regard to Brazil, it seems that Cordozo is very popular. My best guess is that he will try to tread water until the Oct 10 ( 8? ) elections before he does anything drastic. Think he can do it?

I am looking at gold bullion, commodity price indices, US treasuries ( 30 year ) , and the US dollar. There are clearly cyclical patterns relating all of these numbers -- 3 to 6 month cycles, and 1 - 2 year cycles.

If I multiply any two of the above indices together, I can see enhancement of some proportional cyclic behavior. And if I divide, the inversely proportional behavior is enhanced.

My question is this, what is the best way to analyse cyclical behavior to extract cycles or proportionality? Correlation coefficient? Autocorrelation? Multiple regression analysis?

My problem with these high-powered analytical techniques is that you must specify the time period of correlation ( or inverse correlation ) up front, and that is very time consuming if you use trial and error to choose the periods of interest. Easy to loose the cyclic information you are looking for if you choose unwisely.

Anyone know a way out of this dilemma? There must be something better than multiplication or division for analysis of market data when you do not know the appropriate time duration in advance.

Abrose Evans-Pritchard says WJC is a liar, and thinks the American public will eventually see him for what he is. Unfortunately, although AE-Pritchard has been able to see through the smokescreens for years, the American public has not been able to perceive the truth, until recently.

Even then, it is doubtful that the American public will ever see with the clarity of AE-P. Regardless, the seeds of doubt have been planted, and they will fester. WJC will never be the same, and neither will the US markets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000212128859152&rtmo=3uKqKwqM&atmo=99

999999&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/98/9/22/wamb22.html&pg=/et/98/9/22/wamb22.html

This was from Matt Drudge. Please paste together.

The Beatles

The Continuing Story Of Bungalow Bill

Hey, Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

He went out tiger hunting with his elephant and gun

In case of accidents he always took his mom

He's the all American bullet-headed saxon mother's son.

All the children sing

Hey Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

Deep in the jungle where the mighty tiger lies

Bill and his elephants were taken by surprise

So Captain Marvel zapped in right between the eyes

All the children sing

Hey, Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

The children asked him if to kill was not a sin

Not when he looked so fierce, his mother butted in

If looks could kill it would have been us instead of him

All the children sing

Hey, Bungalow Bill

What did you kill

Bungalow Bill?

By MITCH STACY Associated Press Writer

LONDON ( AP ) -- Watching President Clinton in the videotaped

deposition on TV in a west London pub, Tony Charlesworth said

he already knew more than he wanted to about Clinton's sex life.

``I don't need to be seeing this,'' said Charlesworth, a 31-year-old

London businessman. ``They should only show it to people who

need to see it. They're just humiliating him.''

From Johannesburg to Jordan and beyond, many people who

watched Clinton's questioning seemed to share a similar opinion.

Some viewers said they felt sorry for Clinton. Many agreed the

tape never should have been made public as it was on Monday.

But in Kuwait, former oil minister Ali al-Baghli called it a historic

day.

``The head of the most important country is accounting for

breaking the law, just like any ordinary person. I hope this will be

a lesson to us in the Third World,'' said al-Baghli.

Early editions of some British newspapers on Tuesday gave mixed

reactions.

Rupert Murdoch's The Sun, a British tabloid, led its front page

with the headline, ``Greatest Humiliation in American History.''

But The Times, another Murdoch-owned paper in Britain, ran a

front-page column by a former Conservative lawmaker that

sympathized with Clinton.

``This was medieval. It was cruel. This was like bear-baiting. ...

The questions were more offensive than the answers,'' columnist

Matthew Parris wrote. ``It was humiliating even to the viewer.''

Sky TV showed the entire videotape of Clinton's deposition.

Charlesworth, watching in the Sir Christopher Hatton pub, said he

thought Clinton did as well as he could with the probing,

embarrassing questions.

``He seems like an ordinary man trying to keep his wife and kid

from hearing the facts,'' Charlesworth said.

In Italy, Clinton's testimony was broadcast on two channels with

Italian voice-over.

``Everything they're doing is ridiculous,'' said Andrea Amedeo, 19,

a student in Rome. ``He's the leader of America and the world. ...

Leave him in peace to worry about the real problems.''

In Hong Kong, where passers-by watched on a screen at a

shopping mall, Lisa Wong said she ``supposed most people would

lie to keep such an affair secret.''

Germany's rail system ordered televisions in waiting rooms tuned

to a nature program rather than the Clinton videotape. Rail officials

said they wanted to protect children, but many adult Germans

were outraged by the whole affair.

``I find the whole business extremely upsetting,'' German

Chancellor Kohl said. ``I can only repeat, in my blunt way of

saying it, that it makes me throw up.''

The private Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. appeared to be the only

station in the Middle East carrying the simultaneous broadcast. But

the region was not blacked out -- in Jordan and elsewhere,

residents watched Clinton on Cable News Network.

``I disapprove of broadcasting the tape because I think it is purely

an attack on the democrats and it will not serve any good for the

United States of America,'' said book publisher Usama Sha'shaa,

who was interviewed in the Jordanian capital, Amman.

In Lagos, Nigeria, civil engineer Ike Awokiora tuned into the CNN

broadcast.

``It's pathetic,'' he said. ``The tape is disgusting and it is a shame

that the congressmen opted to inflict such pain on people all over

the world by showing us this rubbish.''

Giorgos Dedemadis, a 42-year-old mathematics teacher in Greece,

contrasted the grilling of Clinton about Monica Lewinsky to the

affair between the late Premier Andreas Papandreou and a younger

woman, whom he married in 1989.

``They say the United States is a mature democracy and a serious

country and you have a spectacle like this,'' Dedemadis said. ``At

least in Greece we were sophisticated enough to separate a leader's

private and public lives. It's clear Clinton's political opponents are

just out to get him. It's sad.''

Swiss German Television showed the video on its second channel

for over an hour, with a voice-over in German.

The right-of-center watchdog Swiss Television and Radio

Association said, ``We cannot see what possible information the

Swiss public could get out of this broadcast beyond pure

voyeurism.''

In Amsterdam, 45-year-old barkeeper Ruud Knapp watched from

his post at the Cafe Kalkhover.

``It's a soap, it's just about private sexual relationships, it's crazy,''

he said. ``It's very sad for the man. It's embarrassing. He's not

strong anymore.''