The North Korean situation is less obvious, but I doubt that our military would be able to handle North Korea and Iraq at the same time, given the current lack of support by ( and lack of skill of ) the current administration. You don't fight wars just to get votes at home -- that may be a quick ticket to creating something that makes the risk of war even greater.

All of a sudden US - only firms may start looking better than US international firms, unless the US international firms are very nimbly managed.

What is the damage control doing? Is this like telling everyone that their money in the bank is safe, when more and more banks all over the world are failing?

I still don't know how all of that defaulted debt from the SEAsia crisis is to be rolled over. No evidence that much of it has been paid back yet. And -- our current correction of 20% or so has been sigficant. Mexico has gone down more than 50% -- sure looks to me that the SEAsia damage control has done little to prevent the Asian contagion from infecting South America. And don't forget Russia. If we were talking about an infectious epidemic spreading from country to country, the damage control experts would be lynched.

So -- gold equities will blip up for a time. But -- they may very well go down again within a few weeks. And AG etal will step in very soon and prop up the US dollar -- short term. Can't let it fall to fast, or we risk 1987 all over again.

I wish I had your insight at seeing the swing of the bat -- I am new at this and still tend to look only where the ball went. By then what I see is often old news. I also tend to buy and hold options like stocks -- but I do have a day job to consider -- and -- that keeps body and spirit together.

I would infer from your post that if bullion does not confirm the gold equities rally in a few weeks, that it would be a good idea to bail out and wait for the next equity rally.

I would have put more cash on the line had I not been concerned for another market meltdown very soon -- that thought may not be so crazy given the plummeting behaviour of the Mexican markets. The freezing of all loan activity in Mexico this afternoon is bound to be traumatic to the World's equity markets next week.

If WJC's fortunes take a significant turn for the worse, gold is sure to go up. Looking very likely.

Right now I am mostly on the outside looking in, except for some PAASF stock, some energy mutual funds, a small amount of Mexican index puts, ABX calls, and SP-500 puts. Only the Mexican index puts have been profitable so far -- 350% up. The options are funny money only.

My intuitive guess is that the market is not very superball-like. ( Ever throw a superball into a squash court while one of your friends is inside? ) A friend did that to me in college -- excellent lesson in what a 95% coefficient of restitution can do. I was lying on the floor with my hands over my head for about 5 minutes. There was no way I was going to hit that superball.

The coefficient of restitution of the markets is not very high. And its coherence length for the time period chosen is not very long, either, with a tendency to suddenly shift to a new paradigm.

I think all that fibonacci stuff, and Sharefin's pings, etc. indicate that the markets have a hidden coherence that comes out suddenly ( almost without warning ) at certain times. I still don't have a clear picture of this, but I think a wave model in a tank is probably closer to the truth -- you see chaos most of the time, but if the walls are flat, and there was a coherent wave at one time, you can envision an 'echo' at another time. After a time all the waves die out, and another stimulus is needed. Describing that hidden coherence in the market when it appears to be chaos is nearly impossible ( at the current time, anyway ) -- you must wait until the coherence shows itself, and try to come up with the wave components. Periodic referenc markers -- if you can find them -- help.

Somehow Zeil has done better in this that anyone I know -- problem is -- you won't know how long his model will hold before a completely new coherence model is needed. Whatever model you choose must include constant testing and retesting of the coefficients of the model -- to see if the rules have changed.

I have seen one web site years ago - by an engineer -- lost the address -- who showed analytically that if the markets are given a big enough shock, a strong rebound can occur -- 1.618 comes up. The reproducibility and precision was stunning in his example. Forgot how he analyzed the phenomenon. A major problem is -- knowing when the market shock is big enough to get a 'bounce'.

Another mind boggler is the logarithmic spiral of Fischer, which shows that the 1.618 ratio comes up both before and after major peaks in the market -- in time and space. I find this really hard conceptually, as it appears that the markets actually develop coherence before the triggering event you are observing. How do the markets know how to behave before ( underline before ) the event? Well they do appear that way. The simple ( and possibley incorrect ) assumption is that the coherence related to the coming event occurs before the actual event. This seems to violate the human concept of causality. Could it be that big events only occur if the markets have an underlying coherence building up at the time? Perhaps. I find this hard to believe, as causality would tell you that the coherence should only occur after the event. Does a baseball jump up in the air to be hit? How can it know that it will be hit before the bat hits it? How can the waves in the lake form before the rock falls in it?

There is a message here, but it is beyond my simple understanding. I have trouble with events that begin before they happen.

From a practical side, how do you know those little fluctuations in the market are precursors for a big event, before the big event happens, or something of no significance? I think this is the biggest problem with Elliot wave analysis -- there are so many ways to interpret the data, it is hard to discern what comes next. Really hard if you can find turning points, but not the direction and magnitude, as is often the case. Too many variables and not enough equations.

I will keep thinging about this -- interesting that market space and time behavior both show dependence on the fibonacci series. Sounds like something Einstein would have something to say about.

Thinking a bit more, what I suspect this is saying is that we must apply quantum mechanics to the markets. This type of analysis is in its infancy. We know alot about quantum mechanics on the microsopic level, but very little is known on our level of size. And we know that we can have macroquantization. The orbital periods of the planets are quantized, and two of Jupiters moons have orbital periods that show a quantum type relationship. Fascinating -- this should not be. This new fiend of macroquantum mechanics is intimately connected to fractal analysis, and the Fibonacci series.

uh huh

away.....to the crack of the bat

Éßaseballwhacky

Reason: He likes it where he is and his term is not over. That is all.

away...to a most excellent dinner bash

Éß

I wonder -- think there will be another request to the IMF for bailout funds?

I will feel alot more confortable about investing in gold equities after the dust settles -- doesn't look that way right now.

Amazing -- SEAsia last year, Japan and China this year with complete Russian financial collapse, and now South America. Now, there is alot of American investment in South America. I wonder -- just how stable is Germany and Europe? Are they next?

Sure looks awful familiar to the 1925-1929 scenario, ending with the United States, whose markets fell after the worst was over in the rest of the world. Hard times everywhere until WWII began. 1937, or 1939, I think. The cycle is repeating -- not exactly the same, but similar. Except this time we have a boatload of debt, so it will not be simple deflation in the US. May be more like Indonesia when the bubble finally bursts. Could be y2k, or later when the last country falls -- us.

As I posted, lease rates for gold are flat. Appears this is profit-taking by shorts -- NOT forced liquidation. Huge volume in gold stox today, but we've seen this before, too. Mini-rally to $290-292, then at least a re-test of lows in the near future. Although I'm a ANOTHER fan, I'm leaning toward $240-260 gold before this all shakes out. Too easy otherwise. Note the new rumor of Luxemborg CB selling gold. The start of the Euro appears to be a key for when gold will rise.

Kitco is following a consistent pattern: euphoria during the day ( THE GOLD BULL IS HERE ) , followed by other posters after the market closes with quiet reserve, followed in a few days by the market retreating, accompanied by gloom, doom, and conspiracy.

C'mon, ol' yeller! Prove me wrong! Things are NASB -- both LGB and RJ are bullish!

/////

ATTENTION: ALL POSTERS AND LURKERS: Your assignment is to check with your coin suppliers to determine if there really is a shortage of gold coins. Report within 72 hours. End transmission. /////

Stock Performance Apr. 6 - Sept. 4 ( inc )

Stock| Apr. 6 | Aug28 | Sept. 4 | %

MNG | 5.90 | 4.45 | 6.50 |+10

PRU |11.70 |10.00 |11.80 |+1

PDG |20.80 |13.75 |16.75 |-19

ABX |32.75 |20.90 |25.10 |-22

ORV | 1.85 | 1.00 | 1.05 |-43

GEO | 2.50 | 1.14 | 1.25 |-50

RNG | 5.45 | 2.00 | 2.75 |-50

SUF |13.60 | 6.05 | 6.05 |-56

GRE |10.30 | 1.94 | 2.75 |-73

But Disney could be right about his 'Egg Theory' too. Eventually....... It just can't stay this way.........maybe :- (

away... ( $ )

Êß™

btw...

the DOW - it will crash on Tuesday..........................UP! It is a buy Opp......check it out.

And the USdollar will resume it's climb. Profits are taken, correction is made.........uh huh.

And gold will sputter and cough....

I haven't played since the Packers won the super bowl..........he will getcha! ....¡ohmy!

Hey, I gottan idear! When you are 'cost averaging' those gold calls..........you should also 'cost average' some gold puts too.........just a few ya know ;- ) This is from your buddy EB ya know.........the guy who loves ya..........future ski buddy...........and dragon slayer.......................and definite SmokeMobiler......................... ( puff-puff ) ................ ( aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh ) ....................................now, what was my point? Oh hell, I forgot.................oh yeah, puts baby.....just a small amount. Call it insuring your 'insurance' ;- )

I can see clearly now the *haze* is here

I can see ALL obstacles in my beer

gone are the dark circles 'round my eyes

It's gonna be a funky-dunky end-o-year...... ( sung in my best rasta voice ) ........uh huh.

Have a gold weekend all! AGULP to ya! ...and puff

away...

Êß™

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Y2k/Toms_Take.html

Now gotta go get some dried food... several thousand pounds maybe.

I would also feel happier regarding a gold rally if gold bullion followed suit.

So -- I look at all of this activity as a sign that gold is waking up. But -- it is too soon to think this rally will last if next week is a repeat of the carnage of the last two weeks.

By the way, I have yet to meet anyone at work that thinks that WJC is doing well. It seems that that Aug 17 speech did him alot of damage that not even he can fix. I like Gianni Dioro's post regarding WJC in Dublin saying that nothing he does is due to his own thinking -- all he does is sign whatever it is. Now -- what is that group that directs his activities do when it is obvious to all that WJC is useless politically?

I would not want to be WJC right now -- and if I was, I'd be watching my back. Whatever that group is that got him in power may be looking around for a new figurehead.

85% compliance with their production cut pledge versus 55% in July.

The contract has next resistance at 15.00. Hope the world can keep

chugging along otherwise if we slowdown, all bets are off and deflation

patterns strengthen.Oil needs to reflate producer pockets, especially

Russia.

85% compliance with their production cut pledge versus 55% in July.

The contract has next resistance at 15.00. Hope the world can keep

chugging along otherwise if we slowdown, all bets are off and deflation

patterns strengthen.Oil needs to reflate producer pockets, especially

Russia.

Too bad our Government can't see the same value in them as does the ordinary person on the street.

http://www.researchmag.com/platinum/story.htm

Does anyone know where I could buy one of these?

I'm going to stand on the sidelines today -- option funny money only.