- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:58
6pak () ID#335190: - Friday, August 14, 1998 Published at 17:21 GMT 18:21 UK
Business: The Economy
Russia tumbles and the world trembles
Victims
The first victims, and the ones hardest hit, would be the
people living in those emerging market economies.
Tens of thousands of jobs would be lost, and governments
would have trouble supporting the welfare system as the
collapse of their economies would result in lower tax
revenues.
The vicious circle of government cash shortage, economic
crisis and runs on the national currency, which is currently
troubling Moscow, would be repeated.
Next in line
Some countries have larger
investments in Russia than
others. German banks, for
example, are big lenders to the
Moscow government and
Russian companies. Companies
and financial institutions in
Finland and Austria are
similarly exposed.
If the rouble collapses, they all
will have to cope with drastic
losses and their shares will fall.
This could drag down the
whole stockmarket of these
countries.
Already, the Deutschmark is in poor health because of
worries about German investments in Russia.
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_151000/151056.stm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:58
blooper (Budweisened) ID#207145: - The market was overvalued 2 years ago. You won't believe your eyes when it gets right.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:57
Prometheus (@Crazytimes) ID#210235: - What? Me worry?
Happy Friday night, friend. And a gulp of fine Chilean Merlot to you!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:54
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Blooper -- Yupper. 10-4. 4-10.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:54
Wizened (@ Blooper) ID#242303: - Not recently, but then I'm also honest about it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:52
crazytimes (@ clone) ID#342376: - I agree with you but for different reasons. I don't think the fear or attentiveness was there in 29 either and they probably had faith the market would rise forever then. The PPT is IMHO, what would prevent the big one These people havn't lost money at all. As soon as they even stop making 30% returns a year or roughly 7% a quarter, they'll get attentive. And a loss? They'll get attentive real quick.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:52
weiser (mozel) ID#202123: - What you seek is in you and me--- by this neat form of communication. By that I mean---you ain't alone.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:51
sharefin (Strat - email chatter) ID#284255: - But I had this article sent to me from the Tech Web: ( and I feel it
relates to us being prepared.... although not a remedy, a coin
valuation, or a real estate question -- it does relate to our personal
preparedness -- if I am off base in posting it -- I apologize!
more info for you all to have -- while talking to future ex-friends who
are in denial about this whole thing - and good info for yourself to
have.
Ask yourself-- if not granted this immunity ( which is horse puckey -
because they knew about this for a long time-- ) if denied any immunity
: will it bankrupt the insurance industry - which is the common out
these days.
What will that do in itself to our system?
I mean with so many small businesses doing nothing to prepare for Y2K --
and so many others spending Billions - and not making the cut! ( and all
are going to go and file for a insurance claim if they can ~ ~ ~ )
get where I am going with this?
read below -- and ask yourself -- and your friends these questions
food for thought!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Insurance Companies Back Off On Y2K Coverage
( 08/05/98; 8:29 p.m. ET )
By Andy Patrizio, TechWeb
Nervous at the possibility of as much as a trillion
dollars in lawsuits, insurance companies are asking
industry regulators in the 50 states for permission to
exclude claims from businesses on losses resulting
from year 2000 problems.
The Insurance Services Office ( ISO ) of New York,
which represents the insurance industry to
regulators, said it's been given permission from 46
states for insurance companies to deny year
2000-related claims, and the remaining four --
Alaska, Texas, Maine, and Massachusetts -- are
considering granting permission as well.
The ISO sells products to insurance companies,
including the forms policies are written on. In order to
make a change to the policies, and thus the forms, it
needs to get endorsements from the state regulators.
Insurance companies are regulated at the state level,
not the federal.
The ISO is looking for approval on three proposed
endorsements, allowing insurance companies to
adopt any or all of the endorsements in each state.
The first endorsement would be to allow for total
exclusion for losses attributable to problems
associated with the change to the year 2000. The
second endorsement applies only to damages
resulting from products/completed operations
affected by Y2K. The third is an option for limited
liability, rather than all or no coverage.
The reasoning of the insurance companies is that the
companies have no idea what they are up against in
terms of liabilities, and no premiums have been
collected to cover these losses. We do projections
on potential liabilities, and we're usually pretty
accurate, but that comes from having historical data,
said Christopher Guidette, a spokesman for the IOS.
You need loss experience to get accurate
projection, but so far no one has lost a nickel on year
2000, he added. So far it's been what-if scenarios.
What-ifs aren't projections. That's the nature of this
particular peril. It's impossible to know what the extent
of the losses will be.
One software testing and certification company
executive thinks it's too late for insurance companies
to try to back out. The insurance companies have
known this was coming for at least the past
year-and-a-half, said Paul Strassman, CEO of
Software Testing Assurance, in Stamford, Conn.
Insurance companies could have, as they have
done before, gone out and warned their clients that
this is coming, we don't know what it's going to be
like, but they should take some precautions.
Blame also falls on the companies that will
undoubtedly cry foul at their insurance companies
trying to back out on coverage. I blame [corporate]
management for sitting around and hoping insurance
would bail them out, said Strassman.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
hmmmmmmmm
Where does that put me with my life insurance policies if they go
bye-bye?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:50
blooper (Wizened) ID#207145: - All I can tell you is I make money at this. Do you?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:49
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Oris -- Kitco 'gold-shot' duck hunt; What a concept! HAR!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:47
blooper (Eldorado) ID#207145: - It's coming. Secondary rallies can get back 62 % of what was lost. Lot of mutual fund cash lying around now. I will be cautious and pick off a little bit, to keep from being bored. Hell El. it's only money!!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:46
Wizened (@ Blooper..Sorry but) ID#242303: - I have heard over the last couple of years rather too often.. the gold price has shown a 'classical bottom' or equities are showing a 'typical head and shoulders'... which usually turns out to be BS.
The only thing one can say is that by any meaure the markets are over priced, but that does not preclude fools from throwing money at it. The market was over-priced two years and 40% ago.
As to Gold is it over ( even at these levels ) or under priced. Who knows? Typical, this is a classical case of pick your bias and then justify it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:45
clone (Do not be too quick to assume that there will be a crash like '29) ID#267344: - The fear and attentiveness just is not there. Faith is abound. I am expecting a long bear with many mini-crashes and bounces. -c
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:45
oris (Grizz (shotgun shells)) ID#238422: - #4 for duck hunting, it's now steel shot,
which is not as good as lead shot, but lead is bad for the
nature, so now we got tungsten shot, which is
a killer but kind of too scientific, so why not use
golden shot - golden pellets are heavy and completely
chemically inert... 1 shot, 1 oz. of gold, may be one duck...
Then you got an extra challenge ( at dinner table ) of looking
for gold in cooked duck meat - is that exciting or what?
Gold duck mining....or Kitco duck hunt...anyway, any duck
would be proud to get wacked by golden pellet...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:43
goldfevr (Henry David Thoreau) ID#434108: - The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:42
david__A (Barracks hedge book) ID#266156: -
Is Barracks hedge book all its made out to be?....I remember at a recent presentation that the company stated that they considered their hedge book to be an asset, a US$4b asset and that by playing various options, futures in the equity, currency etc markets they could enhance the returns on this book....Now would'nt it be ironic if they have been caught out with the recent downdraft in world equity markets? Is their book all its made out to be, and is this the reason the share tanked today...........BEWARE
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:42
Grizz (Another url for lots of survival stuff) ID#424394: - From fishing and game cookbooks to combat shooting - wowser!
http://www.booktrail.com/
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:41
blooper (Wizun is a youngun. Better listen to old stupid Blooper.) ID#207145: - You might not lose your smart ass.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:40
Savage (It can go DOWN?) ID#287223: - My ( bank manager ) baby sister said to me yesterday, I was looking over my 401k statement and I'm losing money! ( in shock ) . When I told her it's going to get worse, she cried You're kidding! Well, what do you think I should do? When I stared mentioning real goods like gold, silver, land, wheat.... she said, You're starting to sound just like my husband, that's what he's been saying.... ( My brother in-law is starting to GET IT )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:38
crazytimes (Holy Classical Conditioning Batman!) ID#342376: - Prometheus, Incredible observation! Rimibi when rising, yuan when falling. Smoke screens and mirrors to cover up the smoke screens and mirrors. That's why I get real scared when this thing really unfolds.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:37
blooper (Wizened) ID#207145: - Wise up. You talk like you never saw a bear. I refer you to Jerry Favors. Where did you get yhat name?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:37
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Blooper -- I too am expecting a hot rally. Oldman is expecting hot rallies. Expect them to be very nice opportunities to get very short!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:36
weiser (@Gollum) ID#202123: - What more could a person say.---except so true.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:35
blooper (No profit for the company; no profit for the stockholder.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:34
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Weiser -- Theres a joke/saying that says if you're not 'paranoid', you just ain't been paying attention. Probably quite a bit of truth in it. So, PAY ATTENTION good-time-Joe!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:34
Wizened (@ Bloopers predictions..) ID#242303: - What are these forecasts based on tech analysis, inside info, a hunch?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:30
blooper (Eldorado) ID#207145: - Nikki is at 15000. It will be supported. That will be the spark for a rally for suckers.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:27
blooper (Eldorado) ID#207145: - Nothing has changed. We are about to have a secondary rally of 350 points, maybe more. Then down hard into September. Everything is following bear market norms.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:27
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Grizz - Yup. Had that info on the slugs. Just was wondering if you had any personal experience with them. But they sure do sound like they'd be acutely devastating!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:27
mozel (@weiser @Eldorado) ID#153102: - Feel so much better after your assurance that my freedoms are very secure. Now, if I could just find where Security has put them.
Eldorado. Thanks. I hope some will go and read Kelso's book.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:23
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - crazytime -- Don't fade oldman/oleman. When HE says the characteristics of the market has change for this time, they have. At least for now. Dippy croud is going to lose in this current environment unless they too are day-traders. Quick day-traders!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:23
Prometheus (@dear pot o gold) ID#210235: - don't hold your breath till Clinton resigns.
nevermind the facts. They won't surface for the broad public for 25 years anyway. The Republican white paper ( as vocalized by Rush Limbaugh some months ago ) is plain. A weakened Clinton is superior to a newly empowered Gore. Given the heat wave of the recent past, with Gore's hollering, and you have that in spades. Consider the heat wave in Texas the trump card of the US democratic party. Sure, we've only got 120 years of statistics and it's just really noise. Doesn't matter. Perception is more important ( again ) than reality. Al would run with it and probably win. 'Specially given the $100 million dollar value of the free press time any sitting president is given just by being in the oval office.
So, Clinton is sitting pretty. Clinton doesn't think that the pubs are going to put him out for big Al. And he's probably right. That is more important to the pubs than reality and Clinton's record. And we're talking witness intimidation and collusion here, not personal sex life stuff.
What does that mean to the markets? Watch the Chinese rimibi/yuan ( rimibi when it's rising, yuan when it's falling - talk about media sophistication!0. Watch the Russian market - German banks are said to be highly exposed to the Russian ruble.
It does appear that one had only to read Donald in January and adjust one's portfolio - then take the rest of the year off.
La di da. And away we go.
Don't count on Abby Cohen or anyone else holding up the markets now. 1.4 million personal bankruptsies and a US 0% savings rate ( for the first time ever ) do lead us into new territory.
Looking forward to coming back to Kitco next month after the holidays - miss you guys terribly!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:23
kuston (crazytimes) ID#195260: - I wish someone would package all his posts and sell them on CD!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:22
Grizz (Eldorado - I haven't tried those copper saboted slugs yet.) ID#424394: - Reckon I should get some - several boxes - just in case.
Since Kitco reading takes so much time - I'll save ya'll some time.
cuz the first two Remington pages take too long to load.
http://www.remington.com/ammo/pages/AMMOFR.HTM
The slugs that deliver 2 1/2 groups at 100 yards from our fully rifled barrels. Precise nose cuts create four separate petals. On impact, they expand to over 2X slug diameter, then break off to form additional wound channels. The slug base continues to penetrate with devastating effects.
Anybody know the particulars {or a site therefore} for the performance of the different Buckshot sizes in perhaps a 200 pound critter?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:22
MC (Grizz) ID#350291: - I have a one ounce vial I saved from Nome that I show them. Great conversation peice.
You're right though, I ought to be moving the stuff. I got my dad out of the equity market in June, boy was that a relief.
MC
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:22
Gollum (@weiser ) ID#43349: - Absolutely! Some of the greatest fortunes in this country were made during the depression. Or thereabouts.
The Chinese charasters denoting catastrophe can be read as dangerous opportunity.
From chaos and uncertainty, came the Rothschelds, Kennedys, Rockefellers and others of great wealth.
Sometimes knowing what to buy isn't nearly so important as when to sell.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:21
crazytimes (@ JTF great post on Clinton) ID#342376: - I agree completely. There is no Clinton, no Clinton Administration, it's all based on polls and that's BAD. Remember Logic 101? Argumentum Ad Populum ( or something like that ) which is the wrongfull assumption that the majority is right. That's why I think he'll come clean, because the poll will show that the majority of American's will forgive him and keep his ratings up.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:19
TYoung (Brother oris...your as crazy as I...) ID#317193: - We watch this ne...never mind.
Tom
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:17
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - mozel -- nice posting. I believe the return of the days of the death penalty for usury are LONG overdue!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:16
weiser (@Tantalus Rex) ID#202123: - Take a rest, every one 50 and over isn't causing your problem.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:15
Gollum (Congress) ID#43349: - CONgress may indeed be the opposite of PROgress, but I understand they are debating a bill for the word Clinton to no longer be classified as a proper noun.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:12
crazytimes (@ Kuston re Oldman/Oleman) ID#342376: - He is amazing! I wish he'd post over here again. That man is brilliant and has incredible style. Here's one of his posts. I hope he doesn't mind.
oleman... Fri, Aug 14, 6:49AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Fear in the market, in the words of J livermore, is when the loser fears that the mkt will take back the profit he has in a position, ergo, he pitches it prematurely. Hope, OTH, is when he hopes the market will turn and salvage his losing position. The Good hope and fear is to fear that a loser will become a bigger loser, and hope that a winner will become bigger and bigger. If some sensed fear in my posts last evening, disabuse yourself on such notions. Remember that I said the rallies would be the most violent upcrashes you've ever seen . That endless string of UP bars on globex last nite being just a foretaste. My whole point last nite was that, based on a lot of years of observation, This market has changed. Fundamentally. Of course, if I AM right, I expect very little agreement. Recent posts are most heartening in that regard. Good luck and take care!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:12
weiser (@Gollum) ID#202123: - That tells me to look at the future and the options. Which are ENORMOUS!. People are looking at this from the wrong point of view. Whatever happens, there are going to be opportunities that we would never have thought of.
Hey!, Life will go on--- and without that much trouble.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:11
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Wizened -- Not I, said the cat! And not likely to be so.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:11
mozel (@Every Man A Capitalist) ID#153102: - Title of work by Louis Kelso. The father of Employee Stock Ownership Plans, IRA, and 401K.
Capitalism: Another chapter for the book Lost & Corrupted Heritage.
The original concept of capitalism is that of joint venture. Share the risk, share the reward. The reward is dividends. These origins were in the days when usury carried the death penalty in many parts.
Kelso was a self-taught thinker and self-made business success. He looked at two age old problems
1. Accumulating savings for old age and
2. The crash cycle
His conclusion was that the reason for the crash cycle was that demand dried up as the increases in production from invention and other economies flowed exclusively to the holders of capital.
His solution was every man a capitalist; that every participant in the work of making production more efficient share in the reward, the increase of earning from invested capital. Since the laboring man has not the wage to accummulate shares in a company, Kelso proposed that government put up the capital; hold the shares in trust until dividends paid for them; then put them in the name of the final owner.
Kelso found out that the rich objected to his proposal, because it resulted in the laborer receiving something for nothing, which was morally objectionable.
His proposals finally found a sort of home in the tax laws, where for a time, profits which companies used for ESOP stock was tax exempt. Other compromises of the concept led to IRA and 401K.
The government has destroyed the ethic of capitalism ( joint venture and reward for increase in production ) by double taxing dividends. This has led to retained earnings, the P/E as a stock price measurement, and stock price appreciation. Wall Street valueation by ratio instead of Main Street valuation by dividend check. The bubble market.
Somebody posted it was the roll of IMF in the world to discredit free markets and capitalism and I think that is so.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:10
MC (One Last one) ID#350291: - You are right Gollum. I got in before I found KITCO so didn't learn the lesson of stops until it was too late. So, I was hoping for the force. I have heard it said here that the cost of a good education in investing is about equal to what one would pay at an Ivy League school back East. I haven't arrived at near that amount and have learned some valuable lessons along the way so I guess I'm on the path.
MC
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:09
Grizz (So MC - if instead of just tellin' 'em -) ID#424394: - You pulled out a roll of 10-grain beauties and offered to sell 'em some.
At a measly US$10 each.
Bet you could hit each person for at least one sawbuck.
Shucks - a middlin' bottle of wine costs that much.
Even the 6pack crowd could come up with one ten-spot.
Maybe keep a spare roll for the big spender showin' off to his gal.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:07
Wizened (Are there any souls on this forum that are significantly long gold gold stocks..) ID#242303: - or are likely to do so ( and really do so-ie call their broker next week-rather than just boast about it on Kitco ) .
If so what logic have they got for the aurophilia. I would be most grateful to hear. I have only a small postion left having sold the remainder on the last up-tick but nevertheless with a big loss.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:07
sam__A (Deflation means reflation) ID#284275: - Been meaning to write something longer on this and will do so; but I keep seeing posts on how deflation is bad for gold - this is hogwash. Serious deflation will not be tolerated, it will not happen. How will it be averted? By printing. By flooding the market with cheap dollars. This is what they did in the 30's - the dollar here was devalued by 40% - and this is what they will do if it happens again.
Deflation means reflation. Say it ten times.
Aurator - off to the market...
sam__a.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:07
JTF (Similarities between OJ Simpson and WJC) ID#57232: - All: Ever notice how both OJ and WJC are more interested in how others perceive them, than they are in creating their own personal identity? I do not think OJ has a conscience -- why does he need one? He exists only in the minds of the public -- there is nothing substantial behind the public facade. WJC is the same -- why does he need anything outside his public image? How else can you explain Hillary supporting him? How many women do you know that would put up with his antics? All she cares about is the public image, too. WJC is the penultimate politician.
I remember reading some things about Abraham Lincoln. He was chosen as a dark horse -- as I recall because the leading figures in the presidential race had effectively neutralized each other, and because the 'powers that be' thought he could be manipulated. But he grew into the presidency because he had backbone, integrity and character, and confounded his supporters. Unfortunately, we are not that fortunate with our current president, who is the perfect puppet for whoever or whatever controls him.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:05
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Grizz -- You tend to make a good point with your 'reserve currency' posting. Shotgun shells too ought to be an excellent item. LOTS of families have shotguns about, but with limited ammo. Also might even recommend some MAG type cartridges. MO-POWER!!! Especially in areas where a lot of high power hunting goes on. Now, what do you know about those very nice Remington 12 gauge copper sabot slugs?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:01
MC (Pot o Gold) ID#350291: - I'm in gold because I believe it is going back up. I also feel that it is being manipulated big times and is being artificially held low. As an indicator of inflation which AG is most fearful of, it must be kept low but there is coming a day.... I just wonder if all of the poor folks who have so much invested in equities are aware of the inverted flat spin that the economy is in. ( To pilots, the inverted flat spin is the kiss of death. ) Keeping gold down is important for the short term, but why?
The current worldwide economy has so many macroeconomic events running parallel that it is pretty difficult to put a finger on the specific reason why gold is being manipulated to all time lows. But my poor mind has to believe that it has something to do with paper money gurus keeping the betting, speculating, investing public away from an economic indicator that has such importance to world history. Gold. People around me don't consider gold because they believe it to be so high priced. I tell people how much it is and they say really! When people start figuring out how low it is and where it will eventually go, then things are going to get exciting around here.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 23:01
Grizz (Gold will work just fine for such ballistics) ID#424394: - The local miners here used Silver in a pinch - a little hard but okay.
For VIPs it would be fitting for the firing squad to use Gold bullets.
Lesser crooks would rate only Silver. The bums would get lead.
But of course there would be a good backstop to aid recovery.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:59
Gollum (@weiser ) ID#43349: - No, but the continuing and accelerating pace of 401k contributions by same are having a most significant impact.
The bull market would not have lasted nearly as long, the peak have been so prolinged, nor the descent so painfully drawn out if it were not for the continual relentless flow of cash into the hands of the fund managers.
The Baby Boomers may not be the market, but it would a much punier market without them.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:58
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - mozel -- From one of your earlier postings, I agree that Clinton will NOT be impeached. I think though that he'll wind up stepping down for the 'good of' the democratic party and let Gore go into the elctions as a sitting president. That would be the only possibility of him winning.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:58
weiser (@Tantalus Rex) ID#202123: - This should be right up your alley. You seem to blame the market on the babies.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:58
goldfevr (Russia's economic hemorrhage & collapse - 'no big deal'..but about their missiles ...?) ID#434108: - Below, I have re-copied a cbs.marketwatch.com editorial opinion, that implies that Russia, is not so important, in the economic scheme of things.
I do not agree.
I believe that mother-russia..
could be/become..
the proverbial 'straw the breaks the camel's back' ...
as economic & political stability in our world-wide-civilization...
snaps at the one, delicate, crucial.... 'breaking-twig of fate' ...
that catapults humanity
toward
intensifying economic desperation and depression,
political re-alignment & subterfuge,
and threatened, impending social chaos and mayhem.
is any one listening
does any one care
while nero fiddles
as rome burns
if the individuals & peoples of the nations of the world
will not rise up
in indignation, and just in the nick of time.....
at the ravaging of:
their livelihoods,
their endeavors, their dreams, and
their communities & families...
sacrificed ...
on the altar of:
manipulated currencies --
rooted in the false promise,
& make-believe contract -
of paper-money
and artificial credit....
engineered and created
out of thin air
and held together & held on-to...
for one final moment
by & upon -- the thinning promise ...
of collapsing 'confidence'.
Is there, anywhere, any government,
that will pay to the bearer on demand,
in anything, other than...
-- ( along with their ) full faith a credit...
any-thing other than.... a promise to pay.....in: ______________________________- ....what?
What can any ruling governmental power...
anywhere on this God-given, ravaged earth, at this time...
in the collective evolution of humanity & civilization...
what can any .... powers-that-be ....any power...
ruling any nation of individual people... anywhere,
promise
and fulfill that promise.....with...., other than -
to pay... the bearer on demand....
with anything...but:
a paper currency...
a bouncing-check of legal-tender...
a fleeting, failing, careening, collapsing credit instrument...
all of them: built on:
political expediency,
lies,
wishful thinking,
and post-poned reality.
..............
The 'Titanic' is shuddering,
as it takes on more water;
the lights are flickering, and going out;
more & more 'passengers', increasingly worried,
are beginning to worry too much, even panic;
some are screaming,
some are about to push others out of the way.....
For their are not enuf 'golden life-boats',
to go around...but...but...
wait...wait a minute:
the 'party',
is still going on....
...................
9/27/97:
When the 'tent' collapses,
it will not be the center-post
that goes first;
it will be the side-posts,
and even the stakes...
( The above are my comments, words, only.
Sincerely, David Blair Macrory, goldfever@k-online.com>goldfever@k-online.com )
Back to the original subject - Russia/mother-russia...
--one of the stakes, or perhaps, even - a side-post....
For a realistic view of Russia's importance, and impact,
search for Steve Blizard's one or 2 month-old
post at kitco.com, on Russia,
per a url referenced post, & a posted interview with
a 'Nancy Spannaus' ( -sp? )
( of a -'The Economic Intelligence Review' ) ...
and then...
compare that opinion,
with the opinion of -
with the following, recent point of view,
of Mr. Paul Erdman, on cbs.marketwatch.com .
Best Reagrds to all of you, sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
goldfever@k-online.com
essene@k-online.com
P.S.
Personnaly, truth may perhaps,
live, somewhere, in between -
these two, different views.
----___________........ :: )
By Paul E. Erdman, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:03 AM ET Aug 13, 1998
StockWatch
SAN FRANCISCO ( CBS.MW ) -- This morning I got a call from a friend
asking whether it was true that the Russian stock market had to suspend
trading for 45 minutes Tuesday, seriously affecting U.S. markets. Further, I
was asked whether it would pose even more serious repercussions for
stock markets around the world if Russian stocks and bonds continued to
sink, and if the ruble is devalued -- mimicking the effects similar events
have had in Asia.
My reply: Russian stock market is basically an oxymoron.
Average daily trading is down to a total of $10
million a day vs. $28 billion on the New York
Stock Exchange. A 45-minute suspension of
trading in Moscow has about as much significance
for the rest of the world as the 45-minute rain delay
in Tuesday night's baseball game pitting the
Missoula Gophers vs. the Casper Prairie Dogs. In
fact, the stock market in Moscow could close
down completely and nobody in Russia -- except for the foreign
correspondents -- would care less.
But what about Russia's government bonds, which the market values at 30
cents on the dollar?
My answer: Anybody dumb enough to buy Russian paper -- stocks or
bonds -- deserves everything he gets. This includes Mark Mobius, the
self-proclaimed Russian financial expert who has run the Templeton Russia
Fund ( TRF ) from 65 down to 18 in the past year.
The big scare is that Russia at some point won't
be able to meet its foreign debt obligations when
they come due. True, it only has $18 billion worth
of U.S. cash in its reserves. But it also has an
untapped $20 billion credit line at the IMF, which is
now committed to keeping Russia afloat financially
no matter what.
Even if the ruble were devalued, it would have
basically zero effect on U.S. financial markets,
which have an infinitesimal financial exposure there.
Germany might be different, since their banks have
got their necks stuck way out in Russia.
This doesn’t mean we should not monitor events
there carefully. But the reason is geopolitical, not
financial. The last thing we need is for Russia to go
into a domestic financial and economic tailspin that
would lead to a political lurch to either the far left or
far right. That's why Washington and the IMF will continue to support the
young men now running Russia in times of temporary financial crises.
So scratch the Russian doomsday scenario.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:58
strat (aurator, Grizz) ID#93241: - I see your point...I learn something every day here.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:57
JTF (Time not right for surprise UN inspections of Iraq sites) ID#57232: - All: Perhaps you know already, but it appears that the spin doctors think it would be a bad time to confront Saddam right now, so they are backing off on 'immediate response' threats. Perhaps 'Wag the Dog' had an effect. On the other hand, I'll bet all international actions of WJC will be based on how the American public will perceive them. I wonder how our allies think of this -- a new twist to foreign policy -- feel out the public first before doing anything. I guess this is not all that new, but why is WJC doing this in his second term? This is usually when presidents mature and actually accomplish statesmanlike things, as they do not need to worry about being reelected. Isn't it odd that WJC seems unable to do anything other than get the votes? I guess for all his brilliance, and Oxford-grade education, he seems incapable of a sense of history. And -- why does that not surprise us?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-08/14/044r-081498-idx.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:56
Grizz (Sorry to break the Goldbubble) ID#424394: - But the only reserve currency left after the US dollar kicks the bucket
Will be 22 LR for small change to 30-06 & 30-30 for bigger denominations.
Hmmmm
Where do shotgun shells fit in?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:55
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Grizz -- Understood. BUT, might also be considered for 'emergency' purposes. I assume they'll still come out the hot end of a long rifle in decent form?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:54
weiser (@ Gollum) ID#202123: - One can't blame everything on a period of time,--- other factors are involved
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:54
Savage (Re your 21:56) ID#287223: - Bill2J: HOW would they ever get it ( gold ) out of the ground for $15 - $30 NEVER HAPPEN! ( You say, well, it was $35 and lower 1930s and before BUT, you could buy a loaf of bread for a penny then, and a new car for $700. )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:51
aurator (Huh?) ID#255284: - strat
can you see my eye-brows cocked over your slight ethnocentric exageration? My company has up till now sourced all programming here. We are now looking to India for more talent.
if i've told you once, i've told you a thousand times, don't eggsagerate.
Cock~eyed@_aurator
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:51
Grizz (We would have the last laugh - if we knew what we were doing.) ID#424394: - We wrote most all the software worldwide - except for the Indians.
Then most all that software goes belly up come Y2K.
We can't even do that right!
More for the foreigners to blame Yankees for.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:51
clone (Bill2J - sorry bud, but you are wrong...) ID#267344: - In the 30's, much of the world was suffering from deflation, yes? But in at least one country, Germany, inflation ran rampant. Now, if the US begins a major deflationary spiral, it will become unable to export and unable to repay its debt. After a default of US debt, the $US would be destroyed. The $US would be dumped back on the US as the Euro and gold would become the reserves of choice and the US would suffer from a massive inflationary dillema, rendering the dollar useless. What, then would happen to gold. Medium term, inflation of the dollar is the United State's only answer ( call it devaluation, whatever you want ) , unless the US starts selling its real estate or gold to foriegn countries - and we all know that will never happen. Do not expect deflation in the US, if it actually exists, to last long. The only future left for the creditor is dismay - either from loan default or inflation. Your cash, in the bank, is at serious risk. If I were you, I would buy precious metals or land. -c
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:50
strat (Grizz) ID#93241: - Of course, when you buy software, you ain't buying the software, only a license to use it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:49
kuston (Silverbaron) ID#195260: - The June/July issue of Launchspace had a great article about Unobtainium. Just wondering if you saw it - not likely if you aren't in the biz.
Great posting over at Avid last 2 days. Oleman/Oldman has flipped sidelines, now a bear. Called today perfect!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:48
Grizz (Ear-rings of Gold .223 cartridges - maybe still live) ID#424394: - Would that be a conversation stopper!
A lady sporting such equipment!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:47
weiser (@Gollum I din't think so) ID#202123: - Try again. The babies don't rock the market.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:46
Gollum (@MC) ID#43349: - The difference between speculating and betting is that with speculating you have a reason for taking your position.
If the reason is solid enough we would even call it investing.
With betting you are simply hoping the Force is with you.
The successful speculator is one who can recognize early that his reason isn't panning out and cuts his losses.
Too many fall in love with their illusions and are convinced that if it's not working, it is because they are not doing it hard enough.
They redouble their efforts.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:46
aurator (..Justice is done...) ID#255284: - Earl
Thank you for drawing my attention to Cage Rattler's earlier post. I had missed it, and, here I was thinking that I read everything on the board. But I was having mouse problems, well, actually dead mouse problems.
Contact with Cage Rattler has been made and extrapops is heading his way. Mooney's gonna get one anyway cos of his help tracking one of these here Korean pigs for BJ.
No, Mooney, I don't publish extrapops, it has been remaindered here and I have now given away more than a score of em. I am expecting/hoping to publish my first book within a few months though. Of course, it may just remain at the vanity press.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:46
strat (Grizz) ID#93241: - Take heart, we Americans do all the world's software now. Even the Chinese bootleg it...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:45
Grizz (Eldorado - nobody would buy Gold bullets to actually fire them.) ID#424394: - They are collectors items, showpieces, bragging rights.
Maybe they would be turned into jewelry, keyrings, & moneyclips.
I know a lady here who has a 30-06 shell on her keyring.
Moneyclips - now ain't that a study in contrasts?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:45
MC (Nitol) ID#350291: - It's been a great week. Thanks Bart
MC
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:45
pot O gold__A (pot O gold) GOLD 30.))$) ID#170196: - MC- If gold went to 30.00 or even 100.00 an ounce the US$ would have have to be would 30.00$ each. How can that happen with so many and not increase the price of gold.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:40
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Tortfeasor -- Once again, absolutely marvelous!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:39
Silverbaron (kuston) ID#288295: -
Nope - not in the space biz - the chemicals biz.
Unobtainium - a secret substance used in the transformation of other elements into GOLD.
If not available, you can use Donthavnium, or perhaps Cantfindnium - these work well too.
The last known quantities of these elements were lost with the Nazi GOLD at the end of WWII - perhaps are now stored in a CIA warehouse along with the Lost Ark of the Covenant.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:39
Grizz (FWIW - and it may be futile - like the gold mine executive) ID#424394: - I e-mailed Winchester my last few posts here
along with Gusto Oro's comment. I expect silence from them.
Does all of American Industry have its head up its butt?
We have fine engineering & drafting tools sold here that are
made in Europe where their labor costs can't be lower than ours!
Can't we 'Merkans do anything creative and quality any more?
If the answer is no? We deserve Y2K and WJC and GDII and WWIII.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:39
Gollum (@weiser ) ID#43349: - News Flash!
Baby bommers ARE the stock market!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:39
strat (goldfevr) ID#93241: - Sorry for that earlier post. I meant to elaborate. Saudi moves have me much more optimistic about oil than even yesterday. Apparently, they're trying to set Brent Sea crude at $14 as some kind of a benchmark for oil prices ( it's 12-something right now ) ( you can tell I'm not a trader by how I qoute prices ) . They got to be feeling burned by so few dollars for oil. That Noesis URL I gave you updates every friday but George is on vacation. It will be very interesting to see what he's got to say next week...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:38
MC (Gollum) ID#350291: - On CNBC sometime back Ron Insana said to a guest something to the effect How would you bet on this market. To which the guest replied I never 'bet' on the market, however I have been known to speculate regularly. I guess one tends to have to get all of those terms ( ducks ) in a row and what is speculation to one is a scary bet to another and perhaps a simple investment to a third. I am guilty thus far of betting because I'm not smart enough to claim speculation and certainly have a very long way to go to arrive at investment. I'm learning though.
MC
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:38
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#173274: - Grizz -- Might as well also ask if anybody makes gold plated caskets. Why do you want to rebury your gold for those purposes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:38
Gollum (@Tortfeasor ) ID#43349: - It must be clear that the price of goods and services are declining even though money supply is falling and wages are holding fairly steady.
High prices of equities can not explain low inflation, since a dollar spent on stock is just a dollar put back into circulation in someone elses pocket.
Where then have the dollars gone?
The high dollar has created a large and continuing foreign trade balance.
Cheap foreign goods come in, dollars go out.
Someday, they will come back.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:34
weiser (NEWS FLASH) ID#202123: - Baby Boomers save the stock market!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:34
crazytimes (The only thing good about investing in Gold in the last year has been...) ID#342376: - Kitco Gold Discussion Group. Thanks Bart
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:33
Tortfeasor (Joke for the evening) ID#36965: - My daughters are suggesting that men might be trying to call so I will sign off for now with a short story. Carry on.
n artist, a lawyer, and a computer scientist are discussing the merits of a mistress.
The artist tells of the passion, the thrill which comes with the risk of being discovered.
The lawyer warns of the difficulties. It can lead to guilt, divorce, bankruptcy. Not worth it. Too many problems.
The computer scientist says, It's the best thing that's ever happened to me. My wife thinks I'm with my mistress. My mistress thinks I'm home with my wife, and I can spend all night on the computer!
Too bad I'm a lawyer instead of a computer scientist
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:32
Tantalus__A (Tortfeasor, gracias usted. Yo mucho consajo.) ID#374204: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:30
Gollum (@MC) ID#43349: - I am not altogether convinced that investing in gold is not an oxymoron. Perhaps speculating in gold would be more accurate.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:28
Caper (B2J) ID#300202: - Albeit u have every right to be here, but if I had no interest in precious, it wud not be a consideration with myself to waste my time here. Wud waste my time elsewhere. Methinks u r stirrin' the pot.
Respectfully,
Tom
Ur transparency is becoming more transparent.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:27
Tortfeasor (@Tantalus__A) ID#36965: - Si
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:27
singlion (From Singapore to Allen (USA) with love) ID#284336: - From Allen ( USA ) what do you think China/Hong Kong will do next?
Devalue? How? What do people in Singapore think of all this?
Singapore:
Her high reserves come about through taxes from certificate of entitlements for ownership of
Cars, high property prices, asset enhancement scheme of various sorts.etc.This I call social
Engineering. Now the bubbles begin to burst and I pray hard that those reserves are safe for use.
The wealth effect begin to evaporate and people become less confidence and poorer.
Last ¼ growth @1.5% slowing down rapidly into recession. First concern is employment for the people due to exposure to the property and other debts. Although my people have high savings, most of the mortgages are paid from compulsory Central provident contributions deducted directly from salary. Unemployment begins to rise due to the crisis first started in Thailand. I saw all on Teletext as Singapore tried in vain to help Thailand.It was sad that we failed and the contagion now spread to all corner of the world. In hindsight it was futile because this crisis is about supply and demand disequilibrium. The banker stops lending and capitals flow out. This is not unlike the old caravans in ancient silk route when everything died away when they left. The only resource that we have is our reserves, which can be use in this on going Currency wars. For the coming gold war, come 1.1999,I do not know. The people are happy and there is no hunger. But I fear for the people because of their exposure to very high property prices. Second concern is with the relationship we have with Malaysia due to our dependence on water supply from her. Personally I rather drink desalinated water; 50deg C and a vacuum will do it, then to go through all those pranks. I am an engineer by profession in a power plant. I always remember that the sea and hostile intent surround us. The Chinese in Indonesia were rape and butchered. Indonesia and Malaysia may export their trouble to us. The only love I have is Thailand.Rough maybe but good. Hope we can be sincere friends. So too with our ever-optimistic US.Here I hope she can return to her founding fathers.
Malaysia:
Paranoid! Religious zealot! She is blaming everybody from George Soros to tiny Singapore I have no respect for a bully, anyway you say it. Pl takes on someone your size. You cannot renege on your contracts signed by your representatives and afterwards say only the PM's will do. What happens in Malaysia is not our doing. They are yours only. If it so easy I will be the first to borrow until my eyeballs turn white.
Indonesia: VOLATILE
Japan:
TRAPPED! Structurally not much can be done. It's game-over scenario. Only way is to buy gold. Yen-carry trade has to be unwound and the economy recapitalises from returnees. If not yen will get cheaper and cheaper. Hard to do if you love America like I do.
China:
No need to worry about devaluation from a weakening yen in the first instant think her US$140billion reserves, which she says she has, has to be watched closely for quality. Her actions on FX will be telling. Of COs a weak yen spelt trouble for POG and what it stands for and Asian competitive positions via their currencies. Maybe the world is spiraling down to the abyss. Funny but true when Asia recovers, America tanks! She is only interested in $ denominated trade and investments. Of COs a weak yen spelt trouble to her competitive position think Hongkong's economy will be dollarised in the sense that $ will be used more often. This is not a problem. Something has to give! That something is the economy. It will contract fast and furious sending deflationary signal to all. This is no laughing matter. The H$ will be attacked. The only relief is for the US$ to tanks!
For now like the army says:watch your front It's a yen thing. Now @146.36.In the Russian front there is also unwinding of long Swiss franc positions. Come Monday Asia will tank if no intervention by the Japanese take place.
GOOD-BYE
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:27
MC (Gollum) ID#350291: - I bought gold stock before I found KITCO because I didn't think gold could go any lower. ( boy was I wrong ) I have learned a thing or two since by hanging around this august group. I have decided it is easier to make money mining gold than investing in it, and believe me that is a mouth full.
MC
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:26
Tantalus__A (Tortfeasor - Agreed) ID#374204: - But I will avoid further comment untill Monday pm.
MORATORIUM till then,yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:26
Tortfeasor (Gollum) ID#36965: - Please elaborate on your pithy comment.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:26
Gollum (@Grizz) ID#43349: - That was in regard to Mr. Paxton. As for WJC.
If he doesn't, he should.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:24
mozel (@Grizz) ID#153102: - The problem is these gold mine operators have some other game going than attending their foodchain. That is to say litening to and responding to gold people. I would like to receive a dividend from a gold mine paid in those little coins you mentioned. And be guaranteed that's is the dividend I would receive. I mentioned that several times on this site.
But, we got a gold mine executive on line here and you and I might as well be on the moon talking for all the good it does.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:24
Gollum (@Tortfeasor ) ID#43349: - The medias res is foreign trade balance.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:20
Gollum (@Grizz ) ID#43349: - If he didn't, he should have.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:19
weiser (Tantalus Rex) ID#202123: - Your freedoms are very secure.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:19
Grizz (Even 22 rimfire folks could have their Gold millenium cartridge) ID#424394: - An 80-grain 22 LR. One-sixth of an ounce -
about US$50 plus casting/reloading & marketing -
maybe US$99.95 - a great Christmas Gift
for the shooter who has everything.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:18
Tortfeasor (Grizz) ID#36965: - Grizz, those words would sooth my spirit as well like fine lotion.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:18
MC (Nome Gold) ID#350291: -
I lived in Nome, Alaska for 7 years. That is where I caught the gold bug. I worked the beaches up there. Wild stories from the Northern Frontier. I was a pilot at the time so had opportunity to have a sideline. Never worked so hard in my life, and never had so much fun doing it. There is something satisfying about coming to the end of the day and washing out the days take. Had a sluicebox and a 3 hp Briggs & Stratton and a shovel. There are guys that go up every year for the summer to mine the beaches. I came back to sub $300 dollar gold and thought heaven had come, now I realize it is only purgatory.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:17
Tortfeasor (moratorium indeed) ID#36965: - Lets take pause and see what the spin doctors can do for our floundering commander in chief. Its amazing what semantic tints and shades can do to fuzzy up unambigous words. Were it not so, we attorneys would be searching for work.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:17
Gusto Oro (golden gun...) ID#430260: - Wisconsin Cartridge Corp. makes some nice 9mm Lugar rounds. Try them if Federal balks. --AG
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:16
Grizz (I only want Mr. William J. Clinton to say one thing.) ID#424394: - I hereby resign from the office of President of the United States.
Effective immediately.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:16
strat (gold & oil) ID#93241: - Bill2J...weren't you long on gold last month?
goldfevr...are you watching the oil? Interesting Saudi moves yesterday...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:15
crazytimes (@ Bill2j and Skip) ID#342376: - Gold to two digits? It could happen I suppose but make sure you take off the last zero on your income, because the average income would drop 90% due to the severe deflation. Skip, I know how you feel. I'm holding though. Call me crazy, but I believe in the BIS won't allow gold to go lower the 280 stuff. Or is it 285? Well, 5 dollars won't make much difference. I also believe the launch of the EURO is what will turn the dollar down and maybe big time. Even if it has a poor start, it's still competition for the dollar and the EURO launch is only 4 1/2 months away. If gold doesn't move up in the first quarter of 99, I'll sell and take my loss. Aside from the blatant manipulation in Gold by CB's, it's the strong dollar that's holding it back. If the dollar continues to gain more strength, the more currencies will crumble and the world will crumble even more. I don't think the rest of the world will put up with that.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:13
Grizz (Since there a successful small private specialty cartridge makers) ID#424394: - Screw Winchester and Federal?
Are there any Gold casters out there who have reloading equipment?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:13
Tantalus__A (A moratorium on commentsabout the President of the USofA may be in order here) ID#374204: - Though I've certainly leaned into him since he was elected, perphaps
we should now all hear his side of things on Monday.
Let's Merkans only hope that he does not further degrade his office,
and the trust granted to him by those who voted him in.
I guess I'll shut my mouth when he finally opens his mouth.
My apologies to those who consider our personal and economic freedoms
a waste of time here.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:11
Tortfeasor (Roy Orbison) ID#36965: - I watched an Orbison posthumous concert on the educational chanel the other evening. I had forgotten the sheer purity of his voice. The man was the best. He could sing cirles around Elvis or most anyone of whom I am aware. Sort of like Buddy Holly; a pity he gone.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:10
Grizz (Anybody know a mover at Winchester?) ID#424394: - Could we talk 'em into a Millenium Gold 240-grain 30-06 cartridge?
Maybe a similar cartridge for most every caliber.
Even a 240-grain 44magnum cartridge.
If Winchester doesn't want to, how about Federal?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:09
Skip (@Bill2j) ID#287129: - If your prediction were to come true, that would TRULY be a VERY sorry day for almost all of the world's citizens, except for the few who have manipulated us into this situation. Frankly, I can't help but wonder whether ( 1 ) you have shorted the gold market, ( 2 ) you are a perma-bull for the DOW, or ( 3 ) a gold bug who has thrown in the towel. While I'm depressed over the possiblity that gold could go farther down before it goes back up, it is TOTALLY unrealistic to even consider it dropping into double-digits. In my opinion, it is far more likely to reach 4-digits than it is for gold to even get below 200/oz.
Have you been sent here by Ted Arnold and/or other Wall Street bulls to discourage all who hold gold stocks?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:08
Gollum (@MC) ID#43349: - There is no money in the equities market. The dollar spent on stock is gone from your pocket and put into circulation. You are left with a piece of paper.
A problem arises when everyone tries to get their dollar back.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:05
Tortfeasor (Skip) ID#36965: - I wouldn't put a lot of stock in gold going to the low double digets. Since recorded time gold has been the measure of value against which commodities and services are measured. As I see it the only reason the USA is not awash in inflation is that the dollar is so high that all the printed currency is sitting in a foreign bank somewhere. When the economy goes south, which it will, then confidence in the greenback ( the last bastion of paper worth ) will fall. Greenbacks will come home to roost causing inflation as it should when the paper press is nonstop. Paper and non gold currency has never been lasting. Paper is only as good as what backs it. Paper is worth nothing in and of itself. I like you continue to cost average down ( much to my constant dismay ) . However when the prospects for gold look the most bleak is when the trap is read to be sprung. Hang in there. If we live a while longer our patience will be rewarded.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:04
Grizz (Gollum and Mountain Goat) ID#424394: - Didn't Tom Paxton do a rendition of that?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:03
Gollum (@jims ) ID#43349: - Perhaps not as long as four months.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 22:00
Gollum (@weiser ) ID#43349: - This is a global, not a national serious situation.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:58
goldfevr (crazytimes@ 21:36 : the a,b.c's: The A 's, the 'b's, and the 'c's....) ID#434108: - Crazy-times,
thanks for your post...
But..
what about the 'C's....?!
I agree, that volume,
and the Big-Boys - that is the A 's..... are big/important...
But often, when a new bull market begins..
it is on very low volume..
over a considerable period of time:
as the big A's - that is the 'Big-Boys's - nibble, or
accumulate quietly & patiently,
while a majority of the 'little'.... 'b's
( -smaller investors/money ) , often
sell-out...painfully..
at the seemingly endless lows..... bleeding to death slowly....
{ ( But what about the mystical, eternal, abundant c's...?! ) }
Volume preceeds price....
according to numerous market-students...:: )
Granville,
Mark Leibovitz ( -sp-? ) & his 'Volume Reversal Survey,
and many others.....
acknowledge & use - the power & principle of
volume...
which is one of the components of,
and identifiable definitions of:
big-boys
and
'little-ones' .
Divergences between 'cumulative volume', or 'on-balance-volume' -
and prices..
can often be useful,
in identifying tops & bottoms,
in any given, studied market.
Very low volume,
in seemingly utter boredom & futility....
is often..
the calm
before
the storm.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:57
weiser (What's the bottom line for PM) ID#202123: - Anyone care to comment. I've seen a number of very serious situations in the USA, and world, and things have always come out OK. Is this time any different.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:57
Grizz (crazytimes - your 20:38 from/about Ole A- /49r) ID#424394: - Validates my point.
Each well-heeled Kitcoite maybe can buy up a few kilos of physical Gold.
There are not enough Goldbugs to make a difference.
BUT IF 100 MILLION PEOPLE WORLDWIDE EACH BOUGHT ONE OUNCE.
THEY WOULD ABSORB OVER 3,000 TONNES OF GOLD!
WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO THE POG?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:57
jims (XAU CHART - UGLY) ID#252391: - The attached chart of the XAU with Stocastics chart defines our problem. Good news: if you are long you don't have to worry about the mining stocks being over bought. New 52 week multi year low - least we're not buying a bubble.
Daily ranges are contracting, I have noticed this occurs at turns.
MY 2 cents worth: Trend is down, dollar index strong, bonds strong. WEaak XAU Friday close has portended weaker opening for metals in week past.Spike down in DOW stocks may prompt FED to ease rates topping out the dollar. That will probably be the defining event for a turn. KING Dollar commands its slaves: gold and silver. A revoluiton may be brewing but it is not at a boil. Devaluation, deflation will continue depress the metals until the dollar turns. Perhaps the buying opportunity of a lfe time in the next four months IF we don't go off into an economic abyss.
SEE CHART:
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&stochastics=y&symbol=%24XAU.X
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:56
Bill2j (@Skip) ID#259400: - Skip, I am sure from the sound of your posts you are hurting badly from your investments in gold. I do not mean to bring you bad news but the answer to your queation may well ne never. The questions you need to be asking yourself are what are some of the things that would cause gold to go up. A shortage would be one. Problem is that by all accounts there is something llke a 16 year of supply hanging over the market. Hard to see much hope there. Inflation would be another. With most of the world just entering a long deflationary period that may well last the better part of a generation it would be hard to picture the US having inflation. Especially while the rest of the world deflates. I read a lot of wishful thinking about a return to the gold standard but common sense tells you governments don't want to start up gold trains again to settle their international debts. I look for gold to go to the low two digits before it is all over. I have no problem imagining gold at $15-$30 an oz which is about what it's value would be as an industrial commodity.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:53
MC (The Fake) ID#350291: - I have read on this forum that inflation is what AG is most concerned about. I have also read that the dollar is inflated but the market isn’t feeling it because most of the “extra” dollars are in equities and so are not acting inflationary within the economy, just in the equity market. Several weeks ago I listened to Alan Greenspan tell the congressional subcommittee that inflation is not a problem as evidenced by the gold price. It seems to me that what is going on here is a “flea flicker.” Probably one of AG’s greatest fears is that the money in the equities market might start coming back out of the market and going liquid. Talk about an inflationary run! While everyone is watching the fake, ( depressed gold prices ) , the money is staying in the market and slowly but surely, money supply is decreasing through equity devaluation. It has to be a slow decrease, to use Gollum’s airplane analogy, if the thing crashes and burns, panic sets in and that money comes out of the market. If things can be deflated slowly, if the price of gold can be kept low, if people “stay in for the long haul,” then there will come a day when market forces might be allowed to resume “normal” trends. These are such interesting days because the books are being rewritten as we watch. Gold, a political metal? You betcha! It is so important that the world economy is in jeopardy if it gets away.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:45
STUDIO.R (@I leave you with this...........) ID#288369: - The camera will never compete with the brush and palette until such time as photographs can be taken in Heaven or Hell. Edvard Munch
g'niteyO
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:39
kuston (SilverBarron) ID#195260: - Unobtainium! You in the space business? It is the ultimate space material I read.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:36
crazytimes (the A's aka Big Guys) ID#342376: - Of course A's can have a dramatic affect on the price. The A's can affect both supply and demand. They have so much money they can easily affect supply with large purchases and once their purchases are known, the demand is affected too ( the B's following the A's ) It's been noted here that any of the big boys can purchase all the Gold in COMEX if they wanted.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:34
goldfevr (Gene @21:18:: the Fed. Reserve + U.S. Real Estate values/prices = 2 sacred cows) ID#434108: - Japanese & SE Asian Real-Estate values
have already collapsed, and China's, too.
Rapidly approaching the U.S.,
and our sacrosanct real-estate markets,
is
the 'Asian-Contagion', already spreading world-wide;
and this deflationary, sunami - tidal-wave,
is about to begin
to inundate, and deflate
U.S real-estate values, prices, and properties,
galore.
Ultimately confuscious's 'confuse-ed' says:
all 'sacred-cows',
must sooner or later,
surrender.....
to the meat-grinder,
of hamburger.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:30
STUDIO.R (@gustav klimpt.....) ID#288369: - eggsactly! i agree.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:28
Mountain Goat (@Gollum RE: your 20:55) ID#35087: - Thank you sir! It's been so long I had to reread
the lines twice before I remembered from my childhood.
I've got tears in my eyes from laughing so hard!
You are a man of few, but wonderful words.
MG. ( I'll be laughing all the way home!! Go Gold! Goodnight! )
MGhometogetdinneronahotFridaynight as EB would say.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:22
Spock (THANX Gollum and strat.) ID#210114: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:22
Gollum (Spot prices ) ID#43349: - SPOT PRECIOUS METALS PRICES:
Late New York London Late Tokyo
Gold ( KRCGL ) 283.80-284.30 285.20-285.70 284.70-285.20
Silver ( KRCSL ) 5.16-5.19 5.12-5.15 5.17-5.20
Platinum ( KRCPL ) 370.00-371.00 372.00-374.00 373.00-375.00
Palladium ( KRCPA ) 277.50-287.50 280.00-290.00 280.00-290.00
-- Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:18
Gene (Federal Reserve Letter to Banks. Can anyone confirm this information) ID#390275: - The Federal Reserve Board recently sent a formal letter to banks warning them to curb their real estate lending. The Federal Reserve cited a stock market that is creating inflated balance sheets. The Federal Reserve warned about equity on balance sheets that could vanish in a few down days. My information states that this letter was sent to all banks. Can anyone confirm this?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:17
STUDIO.R (@beyond words.........) ID#288369: - http://www.orbison.com/biog.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:17
Gollum (@Spock ) ID#43349: - 283.80
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:16
strat (Spock) ID#93241: - I think it closed about 285 or so in New York. Check this URL for close in London...I don't think New York was far off.
http://www.goldline.co.uk/
p.s.-this is my go-to site in the morning for prices
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:13
Gollum (@Skip ) ID#43349: - September
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:13
STUDIO.R (@bloOper.............) ID#288369: - that's why I use a big O now and then .........only when it is deserved. honor. Roy's gone now, and so is the Duke, all we got left is Ronnie Reagan. cryin' shame. it's over.....i was alright, for a..while........
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:08
blooper (StudioR) ID#207145: - Talkin bout Roy Orbison's 1962 London Tour.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:07
Skip (When will it ever end?) ID#287129: - I would dearly LOVE to be sitting on a large sum of cash right now to invest in these fire-sell prices of gold stocks. However, because I moved funds into gold stocks in 1996 and 1997, I'm hurting bad - blood in the streets, so to speak.
Every time I think that this gold bear HAS to hibernate, it keeps on going, and going, and going, and going, and going, and...did someone put Everready Battery stock into the mix of gold and PM's? In other words, let me ask one simple question regarding the f**king gold bear: WHEN WILL IT EVER END? Maybe Monday, after Clinton tries once again to work his way out of a jam...unless he successfully stalls as usual.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:07
blooper (Studio R) ID#207145: - Old Jeff Lynde ( ELO ) wrote wind surfer. He could Rock. Rock Auria.
The boy had rythm. In 1962 in London, the Beatles were his warmup group. WoW!!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:04
blooper (John Wayne/ Clint Eastwood) ID#207145: - The difference is Clint decided to kiss Hollywood's pink ass.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:03
STUDIO.R (@ernie...) ID#288369: - me too.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:03
Spock (Kitco down......) ID#210114: - What was the spot close for gold
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:02
blooper (Studio R) ID#207145: - Capatilize Roy Orbison, there wind surfer.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 21:01
clone (watch the news, understand the implications...) ID#267344: - The news has never questioned the constitutionality of Clinton testifying over closed circuit TV - or the freemen for that matter. They did not question why Starr withdrew his subpoena or the suggestion that Clinton might not honor a subpoena. Congress, as I presented to you last night, will not even consider the entire impeachment report due to the fact that there are consequences that they would rather avoid. Bill Clinton has made his deal. I doubt Reno will even persue appointing an independent council to investigate illegal campaign contributions. Whitewater, Lewinsky, campaign corruption, and impeachment are old news. It is time to move on. Justice is dead, control has won, few care and less will act. The Rupiah has more value than the US Constitution.
On another note: have a good time this weekend, to those who attend. I wish I were there. Have a big GULP for me. -c
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:59
clone (watch the news, understand the implications...) ID#267344: - The news has never questioned the constitutionality of Clinton testifying over closed circuit TV - or the freemen for that matter. They did not question why Starr withdrew his subpoena or the suggestion that Clinton might not honor a subpoena. Congress, as I presented to you last night, will not even consider the entire impeachment report due to the fact that there are consequences that they would rather avoid. Bill Clinton has made his deal. I doubt Reno will even persue appointing an independent council to investigate illegal campaign contributions. Whitewater, Lewinsky, campaign corruption, and impeachment are old news. It is time to move on. Justice is dead, control has won, few care and less will act. The Rupiah has more value than the US Constitution.
On another note: have a good time this weekend, to those who attend. I wish I were there. Have a big GULP for me. -c
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:57
clktech__A (@crazytimes) ID#338123: - I presume you are talking about gold stocks rallying before gold price rise. As far as I observe, they do. Bullion up usually means the gold stocks rise as well. I've noticed this in Aussie gold stocks. If the stockmarket tanked due to a hike in interest rates, the value of gold stocks would fall with them, irrespective of the bullion price. This is because the stock price is driven by earnings against what you can get in bonds.
P.S. What's a 49'er?
Cheers
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:56
blooper (Crazytimes) ID#207145: - A's dont know Gold will go up intrinsically. They are in on the ground floor. They may monopolize. They cannot make it go up. Fate does that, and we are quite capable of reading tea leaves ourselves.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:55
Gollum (Japanese Banking) ID#43349: - It went ZIP! when it moved.
And POP! when it stopped.
And WHIRRR! when it stood still.
I never knew just what it was.
And I guess I never will.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:53
Mike Sheller (sharefin, goldfevr) ID#347447: - SHAREFIN: I have enuf trouble figuring out financing and production on a handful of landlocked wells, let alone the tanker industry. You make a good point. Never thought of it.
DAVID: Worms in John Wayne's heart...ugh. Have you no decency sir? ( ;- )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:52
strat (Sharefin) ID#93241: - I got news for you. A number of insurance companies are already stating, for the record, that Y2K related damages will not be covered under standard business policies. Apparently, Y2K coverage will cost more ( probably a great deal ) . So a large number of companies will be operating with limited coverage and will be open to a lot of possible liabilities. There were some posts regarding that subject late last week or early this week, but I'll keep an eye out for any URL's. Any business owners here might be wise to check with their agents, who might be able to figure out what you're talking about after a month of complaining to 'em. What will happen to business with limited liability coverage? An old customer of mine had a gun wholesale business that had a $1 million dollar liability limit. He ( or rather his corporation ) got sued for $6 million in an accidental shooting lawsuit and he simply folded it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:52
STUDIO.R (@goldfevr.....) ID#288369: - that's a damn lie. His heart was transplanted into roy orbison...and roy wore it out. his liver wasn't worth a_shit, though.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:49
Mike Sheller (mixed baggette) ID#347447: - STRAT: No blasphemy taken, my friend!
GOLDFEVR: David, I see a monster move for silver 2003-2005, with concurrent indications for oil producers and gold miners. These years will be the eruption we have all ( well, maybe except for RJ ) been dreaming of. And there will be more afterwards. But this is what I am looking forward to, and building toward - 2003-2005 for oil, silver, and gold. You heard it here. I stand by gold in the thousands of dollars per oz. in the next century...and not too far in, either. This is the bottom. Dollar cost avaerage bullion for the next year.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:45
goldfevr (Studio.R @ 20:32 & John Wayne & memories.... & worms) ID#434108: - Studio.R,
My memory often fades me now, in my old age;
but seems I recall, that news-reports reported, that -
when 'god-John-Wayne' got his autopsy,
they found that his heart
was crawling with worms
i never verified this
never cared to
we all have feet of clay...
even the john-waynes among us
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:41
chas (Grizz re email) ID#147211: - Trying to send you one, but it's stuck?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:40
sharefin (Mike S) ID#284255: - One possible mover for oil could be the Y2k insurance dilema.
Insurance normally covers a one year span.
So any company who wants to take out insurance in Jan 1999
Will have to be Y2k compliant.
So that they can be covered when the roll over cuts in.
Many industries will feel the pinch of this when their insurer says,
No compliance - no insurance.
How many oil tankers will this effect?
How many other businesses will this effect?
A ship is not allowed to sail the seven seas plying for hire or charter or for profit unless it is insured.
If it is not Y2k compliant it can't be insured.
And insurance companies are getting a lot more nervous.
Will this effect 10% - 25% or 50% of the oil industry.
How many Y2k compliant oil tankers are out there?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:38
crazytimes (A good read from a thread on SI by Ole 49'r that some have mentioned here) ID#342376: - Could you give us a quick summary of why bugs think that stocks must rally before gold? Seems obvious to me that your stock is going to rise after your product's price rises, but so many sophisticated folks think otherwise that I tend to think there is something to it. Just haven't figured out what, yet.
First of all, your request for it to be a brief summary, leads me to putting my thoughts into simpliest terms. But then I find expressing my thoughts in simplist terms seems to require more words to explain 'what I mean.' Here goes : )
There are two kinds of people in the world:
A ) Those that make things happen
B ) Those that watch things happen
My Scientifically Observed Conclusion: There are more B's
In this simplistic postulation, I submit:
I unequivocally place the Rothschilds at the top o'the World of Gold,
WITH
their concretized creation, Bank of International Settlements, aka BIS,
and its intricate web of relationships, personnel and influence at Central Banks,
woven over decades and decades and DECADES,
as its chosen policy/implementation vehicle.
It is precisely because of the Rothschild's
PERSONAL holdings
of untold millions of ounces of refined gold,
that they are able to impute & thereby trickle down their influence
to & through the LBMA, COMEX, Hong Kong, Zurich, etc.
They and others,
sheiks, kings, queens, captains of industry, yes even despots,
unmistakably ALL holders of real physical gold,
these A's use ALL B's to megaphone their agendae
i.e., impose their views upon others.
A's influence B's by the creation of
contracts, i.e., paper gold if you please, to borrow the term ANOTHER uses,
equities, which if you stop and think about it is also paper... ( that is until the gold is brought up and refined and then safely tucked away again,,
and derivatives, both relatively simple Comex kind to archane derivatives,
which, for all practical purposes,
is a sophisticated paper entry.
Electronically traceable or jotted on linen table napkins...makes no dif. Derivatives are still one or several paper steps removed from physical gold holdings.
Therefore,
since there are so damn few A's
and multiplied millions upon millons of B's in this world...
the only thing B's can do,
is devine the paper runes of A's.
To this end, primarily, in my view,
great efforts at mastering paper runes' nuances via charting equities,
has been the B's only method, and why they defend it so vociferously! Yes, even the sophisticated B's you noted. Tis also the reason why I believe B's continue to promulgate their myth --that paper appreciations or depreciation leads gold prices---a myth so illogical, it is absurd!!!!
Now, make NO mistake...
I DO believe that A's telegraph, and quite effectively
the A's financial, political, yes even religious agendae
by forebearance in and manipulation of the world of paper gold.
But to chart/track the results of the A's is NOT my agenda.
It is like trying to determine the actual presence of the dreaded garden slug outhere in the Great Northwest, by observing only the slimy trail across the patio or paved driveway after his disappearance into the night.
To emulate A's modus operandi
by accumulation and distribution of physical gold,
even though NOT in proportionate amounts
is my personal financial goal.
For it is in what one truly physically possesses
that one can truly find the financial security,
NOT in what paper one holds that TALKS about physical possesion or manufacture/mining thereof.
Philosophically,
I differ from the B's of this world,
that are seeking to ferret out what the A's are doing
by tracking their paper shards, i.e. tracking paper slime.
While a profitable game to many,
and yes, also to me upon occasional exercise therein,
I prefer to accumulate the physical.
Therein lies the beneovlent power
to exercise my agendae
as I interact w/other B's of this world.
Not very egalitarian, I grant you.
But damned effective,
esp. since physical gold permits unlimited printing of Paper Gold
which the B's seem to ignominiously scramble
with limitless paper contango schemes
much like little children under a broken pinata
It is only pendulumatic swings of opinions by the B's of this world who chart/track/devine/interpret paper slime,
who think otherwise.
Ole A- /49r
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:35
goldfevr (Mike Sheller @ 20:19's ... Pig in the Python) ID#434108: - Prey-tell.....er - a- excuse me...:
Pray-tell, Dear Michael,
when do you honestly believe,
that this 17 ft. python
will finally.... 'lay'...
this 'pig' -- this 'golden egg' ?!
When, I say...but WHEN
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:34
oris (Dutchman) ID#238422: - Insider buying is generally good sign, but according
to the Kaplan's info, these were small purchases.
May be guys sat and decided to show some
confidence to the public - NEM/NGC stock is extremely
low, so it's a good business practice to say a word in
support of the company they work for...
I may be wrong, but it feels that way.
On the other hand, NEM/NGC seems to be not the worse
gold mining company around, although they also started
to complain about low gold price in the past few weeks...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:34
strat (sharefin) ID#93241: - Can't you just give us the URL on a post like your last? I'm bookmarking Y2K sites for future reference.
Or is that a book you're writing?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:33
Silverbear (Clinton's way out!) ID#290232: - Send this to Clinton's Lawyers quick! All Clinton has to say Monday is
that Monica was simply his personal urinal! Thus, it was not a sexual relationship!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:32
STUDIO.R (@Ima just sittin' here thinkin') ID#288369: - that I'll pump that dirty old oil until I die....'cause no lease, no grease. it's all that's left of John By God Wayne. And God above knows the Duke liked that oil, and hereford cattle, and land lots o' land, and women and whiskey and gold. and six shooters and winchester rifles, and whiskey and women.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:28
Earl (Scrolling up.) ID#227238: - Mozel: One of the few times you're found to be in error. But only on absolute numbers. ..... Mozel's odds for Clinton's Impeachment: Zero Chance of it.
In point of fact, it is less than zero. ..... Bordering on minus infinity. ...... If odds could be less than zero, that is.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:27
strat (Mike Scheller) ID#93241: - Frist and foremost, I watch oil as an indicator of gold prices. I won't rack my brains trying to figure out the financial finesses of CB's and Treasury Departments, although I appreciate the posts on such subjects. No blasphemy was inferred on my part...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:23
blooper (Strat) ID#207145: - As James Carville said, it's the economy stupid.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:23
ROR (Tautalus) ID#412286: - This is where it gets good.. BC will get away with it,,,and it wont help. The world wide depression is on a roll and will love resistance as an opportunity to make it worse. This is opportunity for Economically progressive people to come out for democracy which the corporatists hate. Markets NO Democracy Yes Ya gotta luv seein big cap US stocks lose value..Truth will rule!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:23
sharefin (Why be concerned?) ID#284255: - ------------ Case Study #1: The pharmaceutical company
The pharmaceutical company has global operations in 39 countries. In addition to their manufacturing systems, they have laboratory systems, along with their facility systems ( and their external dependencies ) . One fully integrated complex was done. 4,457 items were inventoried and of these 2,618 were unique. 392 were in the Lab, 980 were in the facility, 837 were in manufacturing, and 409 were found in external relations.
The results were that 18% of the more than 4000 items were found to be non-compliant and 17% would cause a plant shutdown or would affect production.
In the lab, 18% of the hardware was non-compliant and 27% of the software needed to be fixed. 36% of the custom code was non-compliant. 8% of the suppliers of these non-compliant systems were no longer in business and 11% of the suppliers would not supply an upgrade except with the purchase of a new model.
Of the manufacturing systems, 16% of the hardware and 22% of the software was non-compliant. 41% of the custom code wasn't compliant either. 9% of the suppliers were out of business and 18% would not provide upgrades except through new models.
In the company's facilities, 18% of the hardware and 33% of the software was non-compliant. 29% of the custom code was non-compliant. 11% of the suppliers were no longer in business and 21% wouldn't upgrade except for new models.
In the external dependencies, 12% of the hardware, 25% of the software, and 27% of the custom code was non-compliant. 5% of the suppliers were out of business and 9% wouldn't upgrade except through new models.
The chance of these facilities failing was 70% for the lab, 80% for manufacturing and facilities, and 90% for the
external dependencies. This means that without any remediation at all, total plant failure is a very good bet.
It was estimated that seven out of nine manufacturing lines would stop running within the first 3-4 days, and the network and telecommunications equipment wouldn't work. Security systems would admit anyone with any credit card and the in-plant power substation would fail along with municipal water.
For just one plant, the inventory is expected to take eight weeks and the analysis is expected to take five weeks. Risk assessment is expected to take two weeks. Inventory and analysis would cost $487,000. The estimated time to fix is 43 weeks and the estimated cost is $1,200,000. For all 125 plants, the inventory and analysis would take 39 weeks and the cost would be $11.5 million. The fix would take 31 weeks and the cost was estimated at 54.8 million.
------------ Case Study #2: The major beverage company
The major beverage company has global operations that include 47 plants in 21 countries. The company has
manufacturing systems and laboratory systems along with facility systems. There is also a lot of Eastern European and Russian equipment in the plants. Nine plants were done in a pilot project. 3,819 items were inventoried and 894 were unique. 210 were in the lab, 304 were in facilities and 380 were in manufacturing. 24% were non-compliant and 28% of them would affect production.
In the lab, 34 % of the hardware, 26% of the software and 39% of the custom code was non-compliant. 16% of the suppliers were out of business and 34% of the suppliers of non-compliant products did not offer upgrades except through new models. 35% of the equipment would have to be replaced.
In manufacturing, 26% of the hardware, 23% of the software and 33% of the custom code wasn't compliant. 15% of the suppliers were no longer in business and 21% offered no upgrades except for new equipment.
In the facilities, 9% of the hardware and 6% of the software was not compliant. There was no custom code. 19% of the suppliers were out of business but 40% of the technology was old and manually operated.
The inventory and assessment took 20 weeks and cost $893,000. Time to fix was estimated at 35 weeks and the cost at $2.9 million.
For all 47 plants, the inventory and assessment was estimated to take 25 weeks and cost $4.9 million with the
fix taking 29 weeks and the cost estimated to be $23.4 million.
------------ Case Study #3: A major automotive manufacturer
The major automotive manufacturer has global operations with 162 plants in 41 countries. Two plants were done in a pilot project. 1,389 items were inventoried with 435 of them being unique. 131 items were in the facility, 254 in manufacturing and 50 in external dependencies. 16% were found to be non-compliant and 6% could cause a serious plant shutdown.
In the manufacturing systems, 11% of the hardware, 19% of the software and 37% of the custom code was non-compliant, but this time all the suppliers were still in business. 18% of the suppliers would not provide an upgrade except through a new model.
In the facilities, 17% of the hardware, 19% of the software, and 42% of the custom code was non-compliant. 7% of the suppliers were no longer in business and 21% would not provide an upgrade except through a new model.
The greatest threat to this client was the supply chain with more than 60,000 suppliers. Of these, 7,500 suppliers are critical to the manufacturing process. 30 suppliers were investigated and only 6 had active and defined year 2000 programs. The other 24 maintained that they were already compliant. After testing, 46% of these were projected as non-compliant.
The inventory and analysis of the two plants took nine weeks and cost $221,000. The fix was estimated to take 12 weeks and cost $1.1 million. For all 162 plants, the inventory and analysis was estimated to take 31 weeks and cost $13.6 million, with the fix taking 58 weeks and costing $72.2 million. The risk assessment for the plant projected that 3 out of 4 of the manufacturing lines would stop running in the first 2 days. The networks and communications would fail, and the security systems would refuse to admit anyone. One of the two power substations would fail and the city's sewer removal system would fail and could not be upgraded.
------------ Case Study #4: The petroleum company
The final large client was a global petroleum company with 18 plants all located in the United States. The systems identified were quality systems, manufacturing systems and energy management systems. The pilot project was an inventory and assessment of a catalytic cracker and the co-generation plant. The tie-on system with the local grid was also included.
1,035 items were inventoried and 514 of these were unique. 365 were in manufacturing and 149 in external dependencies. 21% were not compliant and 6% would cause serious plant shutdowns or affect production negatively.
The results for the manufacturing systems were that 11% of the hardware, 14% of the software and 23% of the custom code was non-compliant. 2% of the suppliers were no longer in business and 12% of the suppliers would not supply an upgrade except through purchase of new models.
For the quality systems, 24% of the hardware, 29% of the software and 29% of the custom code was found to be non-compliant. All suppliers were still in business but 16% would not provide upgrades except through new models. The risk of failure was put at 60%.
For the co-generation plant's results, 19% of the hardware, 36% of the software, and 24% of the custom code wasn't compliant. 13% of the products were no longer made. In this case, the energy management system tied into the local grid that was non-compliant and couldn't be upgraded. Some of the more interesting findings were that the catalytic cracker would fail and the refinery could no longer make gasoline. One of the more troublesome findings was that the analyzers would continue to work but would send erroneous data. The proprietary networks from the control systems to the analyzers would fail. The inventory and analysis would
take 7 weeks and cost $122,000. The conversion for two units would take an estimated 15 weeks and cost $760,000.
------------ In Summary
In an overview of all these facilities, problems were found in the sensors & analyzers, lab equipment, programmable Control Systems, embedded systems, SCADA systems ( Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition ) , distributed control systems, human-to-machine-interfaces ( HMI's ) , networks, computers, third party applications, and Operating Systems.
Mr. Heerman also noted that they had found that some of the vendor compliance statements were incorrect. Some pieces of equipment the vendor had claimed to be compliant had failed. One piece of equipment successfully made the January 1, 2000 transition and was allowed to continue. Just over a month
later, when checked again, the date on the equipment was January 34! This points out the need for continued testing, especially at the system level.
Mr. Heerman also indicated that Tava has found that the single most important thing that can make a year 2000
project successful is the degree to which executive management is involved.
The projected risk levels for failure of all the units of these companies was between 60% and 90% if the non-IT parts of the business were not found and fixed. I think the main difference between the Cargill and Tava plans is the level of thoroughness in the inventory and assessment phase.
Also, a company like Tava has access to a large database of compliant and non-compliant devices that might not be available to individual companies.
An open question is the same one I posed in my coverage of Cargill's approach. Is 90% assessment and inventory with work-arounds for the rest good enough? One person wrote me and said it was similar to a house losing 10% of its nails. I agreed with him because I used to make houses. If a house loses 10% of its nails over the entire house, it won't fall down. Other than some more squeaks, probably no one would notice any difference. That's because most houses are overbuilt by a factor of at least 50%. But what if the 10%
of nails were all in one corner of the house, or just in the floor joists? Then the house would fall down, or become uninhabitable. Some companies will fail because of this. For them, 90% won't be good enough because the nails they lost were the ones that held the place together.
Usually, one nail doesn't make that much difference. But sometimes it does. I'm reminded of the quote: For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost. For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
It will be really interesting to see what ultimately comes out of this.
Best practices, Jon Huntress
jon@year2000.com
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:22
Earl () ID#227238: - Aurator: Point of order! Point of order! ..... Mooney, though wise beyond common measure, was not firstest with the mostest. Please see Cage Rattler at 15:39 and judge accordingly.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:21
WDL (@gold) ID#235295: - Tantalus Rex...in response to your post...I've held gold for nearly a decade now...though as recently cited, I have dumped some of my shares...I still believe in gold, but I would suspect in years past...gold, under these circumstances, would be rising geometrically...as we all know --- it isn't! I just feel that the rules of the game have changed...the refrain I hear in lieu of buying gold is:
derivatives, foreign currencies, bonds, TIPS, etc. Until this changes...if it does, I'm still suspect.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:21
Tantalus Rex (signing off for a few good pints - CIAO) ID#295111: - !
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:20
blooper (Skinny) ID#207145: - Don't associate me with that Lucerferian House of Windsor. How dare you?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:19
strat (WJC & Lewinsky) ID#93241: - A number of people I've talked to about WJC and his liaisons react, as I do in part, with a certain discomfort that such subjects ( a man's illicit affairs ) are best not broached. People in the US are really a pretty decent lot and would just as soon overlook subjects that make them uncomfortable whenever possible. Now when the economy tanks ( a stockbroker I talked to chided me for using that term recently ) , Americans won't be able to avoid that discomfort and the economy is a far easier subject to complain about in front of your kids than some gal named Lewinsky...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:19
Mike Sheller (strat, WDL) ID#347447: - Oil vs gold is no blasphemy. Actually, they are quite compatible commodities. Clarity Resources, the company with which I am affiliated, has, and is accumulating, both kinds of properties. Right now a number of operations in the resources industry are seeking and buying properties of all kinds in a consolidation that indicates far sighted energy resource people recognize the steep discounts of today relative to a cyclical upturn tomorrow ( even if tomorrow is 2 or 3 years from now ) Businesses must act in this kind of time frame because there is a lot to do with a property obtained cheaply under duress for the previous owner. Investment and refurbishing must be done, wells must be cleaned out, vertical wells re-drilled horizontally where production increases would warrant, etc. This all takes time, money, sweat, and lots of fund-raising, etc. But this is now being done by wise operators at good prices for properties. Nowhere is this more true than in gold and silver properties, which are selling at discounts that will not be seen again...EVER...once the new gold and oil bulls get under way and take the price level to a band far above current fluctuations - for good! This will inevitably reflect the currency devaluations and fiat profligacy of the past decade, and the years to come. The increase of the US money & credit stock over this paper bull market has been monumental. Far out of kilter with natural growth rates and natural law. The readjustment will come in a few years. The pig in the python is still in transit. I raised a python from a pup to a 17 footer. I know whereof I speak.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:19
goldy88 (RHODY&FOX_MAN 18h16) ID#42039: - This was post to me some days ago.
ThiDate: Mon Jul 27 1998 17:16
Silverbaron ( goldy88 ) ID#288295:
My understand of registered vs elligible
stocks is:
Registered stocks - parked in the warehouse
for custodial purposes - owner registered &
not ( generally ) for sale
Elligible stocks - marked for sale against
COMEX delivery requirements
Scheduled for delivery stocks - stocks which
are sold now, to be delivered at a specified
future time
If supply and demand ( ECON 101 ) rules, when
the COMEX stocks go down, the price should go
up until a higher price brings forth more
supply, and equilibriium is reached. This
has not been the case for many years ( see Ted
Butler's articles on vronsky's site ) . When
COMEX stocks go to zero, and demand is
inelastic ( as it is with much of silver
demand ) the price should go up, a lot.
Return to Kitco Homepage
Date: Mon Jul 27 1998 17:
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:17
Mountain Goat (@Tantalus Rex) ID#35087: - I dunno, I suppose Clintler might draw the line at his own daughter.
I'll give him that much credit ONLY.
But yeah, where are the feminists? Where is the NOW?
What was the quote by that one liberal journalist? ( female )
something like: We ( meaning feminists ) should all have sex with
Clinton because he's protected our right to abortions.
Ugh. I'm sure Clintler had dreams for weeks about the endless
possibilities of that one. And still, his popularity is relatively
high. As you said, it's almost completely due to the ( once ) booming
economy. By the end of this year I think the economy will be in
shambles, people will be nervous, and Clinton will have all the
popularity of ear wax.
When will they all wake up? I keep wondering what it's going to take.
Regards,
MG ( Go Gold! Go Sheeple! [back to bed, nothing to worry about] )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:17
blooper (Bill, you weren't tapping Hillary, why did you get mad when Vince Did?) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:16
G-Nutz (Mozel) ID#433143: - as far as clinton, its a sad story. there is zero chance. The media has diluted the issue too far everyone thinks its about sex.. they keep conveying the idea that if he tells the truth hell come out, i think ive heard that about 100 times today! one would think they were trying to supplant that idea in my head! besides oral sex is not sex in clintons book, wonder how hillary feels about that? hrm wish i could get my girlfriend to think like that! heheh just kidding. i bet anyones wife would define oral sex is sex period, especially with another woman...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:16
Tantalus Rex (@Duchman) ID#295111: - Hope you're right. But I have a funny feeling the markets went down today cause of the age old story
... when it's going to be bad news as in this case
'SELL ON THE RUMOR ( today - friday ) AND BUY ON THE NEWS ( monday ) '
... if it was good news on monday, it would have been the opposite
'BUY ON THE RUMOR ( today ) AND SELL ON THE NEWS ( monday ) '
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:16
skinny (STRAT) ID#28994: - My negligence in not inviting Elvis to the meeting has caused great international tension. I was seriously reprimanded by BLOOPER and the House of Windsor. Elvis has replaced the Royal Scots Dragoon Guard Pipe Band. The Palace will never be the same.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:16
Grizz (Things ain't bad enough yet - for Gold to sell - yet!) ID#424394: - Folks are still BBQing fancy steaks in their back yards, watching TV, drinkin' beer, goofin' off and generally having a contented time.
This has got to get worse, much worse, for Gold to do anything but sink.
Sure there are some folks whose trouble antennae have been stimulated.
But there are always folks like that.
How long do we have before the things start to go down the toilet?
DON'T tell me we're there - too many folks are eating out tonight.
So when will the market for selling Gold to the masses really peak?
Will we be ready.
Or will the paper and cyber money be evaporated before we - each and every one of us - have a chance to sell Gold coins to the masses
AND MAKE MONEY AT IT!
Screw this paltry few dollar 1% up or down stuff!
Let's help the guys mint some $6 10-grainers and sell 'em for $10
- at least!
Then when things REALLY GET SPIRALING DOWN - sell 'em for $20.
We on this Kitco forum could be one of the biggest retail Gold sellers to the masses in the world - cuz nobody else is doing it.
So when am I going to have commonly circulating and accepted
Gold coin in my pocket to buy groceries and gas with?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:15
blooper (Strat) ID#207145: - Si, senoir. Bill got REAL jealous.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:13
blooper (Envy) ID#207145: - I asked about shorting..Next will enquire about simply buying puts. That's the way to go.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:11
Tantalus Rex (@WDL) ID#295111: - Oil is a good buy. ANy resource stock is a great buy. But to me, Gold has to be the best buy at this time. The down side risk is slow low. That is, you might lose by buying gold now, but your losses will be minute.
HOWEVER, AN UPSIDE MOVE IN THE POG IS MUCH MORE LIKELY AND A VERY MUCH LARGER MOVEMENT THAN A DOWN IN THE POG.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:09
strat (blooper) ID#93241: - ...must've been something she ate.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:09
blooper (Yes Hillary, it's either cream gravy or Vince Foster.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:08
Dutchman (Tantalus Rex) ID#215235: - Thanks for your insights. I agree with your scenario in part, however, I think the rise in Gold will before October and the events you mention will only add more fuel to the gold fire. Although the POG is currently trending lower, and may for another week or so, I believe we will see an turnaround into a bull market in the pretty yellow stuff. Clinton is a kicker in that Monday he will affect the markets and cause a downdraft in stocks. The bond market will reverse course that day or within days. People will start looking for undervalued investments - ie. AU, AG, oil, and other depressed commodities. That trend will strengthed into the introduction of the Euro. Dang, son, all us goldbugs are gonna get rich! Yippee!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:07
blooper (HILLARY HAS SPOT ON HER DRESS.) ID#207145: - Star's trusted lieutenants have sent the dress to the FBI. The results were positive. Vince Foster.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:04
Envy (@Blooper) ID#219363: - The broker guy must have not understood what you were talking about if you were trying to buy puts. If you were trying to short, that's different, you probably need an account. But I simply walked over to my broker, bought the puts, and paid in cash. They can't cost you more money than they do up front, so you don't have to cover if the stock goes up, they just expire worthless and you lose the money you put in. The broker, of course, has his or her fee for the transaction. I did have to sign a paper, but it was one of those waivers that said I understood the risk of options trading, gonna lose all my money, that kinda jazz so I wouldn't sue them. *grin*.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 20:03
Tantalus Rex (@Mountain Goat) ID#295111: - I don't think Americans will care too much Monday. That's cause all they're worried about the their investments in the DOW. Baby Boomers don't want the Dow to tank due to a BC impeachment. So all they care about right now is for BC to remain as the Pres.
I mean, I wound't be surprised if BC approached Chelsea and asked her own daughter for a bite cause BC's a pervert anyway. What if that were true?
Well, I believe most Amercians would care but deep down inside, real deep, they would still want BC to get away with it. What a sick society?
Where are all the feminists. They should be eating BC alive!!! MAYBE THEY ARE!!! Talk about a double standard.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:56
strat (Mike Scheller, WDL) ID#93241: - You guys are on to something with oil. Check the links for more info on oil industry:
http://www.oil-gasoline.com/links.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:55
clktech__A (Dow under 5000 before years end - AFR article) ID#338123: - http://www.afr.com.au/content/980815/market/markets1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:54
blooper (Envy) ID#207145: - I called Schwab. I don't like margin accounts much. That is what you must open. They put up half and get half the winnings. Does appear to be a gamble. As are stocks. I am not as excited, but will check further. They have a long way to drop in Sep. and Oct.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:49
Mountain Goat (@JP & all) ID#35087: - JP, did you have your Mr. Pibb yet?
Are you ready to come clean about ruining the world markets? Bad JP!
As Desi Arnaz would say, You got some 'splainin to do!
In other news, I believe I know exactly why we heard all about
what Clinton is going to say on Monday.
Because his team of handlers wants to cushion the impact of
hearing it from him, by giving it to us a few days early.
We can argue and discuss and rant and get all worked up about it...
And by Monday it's old news.
Joe Sixpack is already bored with it.
Yeah, so what... Simpsons re-run's are comin' on, so shuddap about it already!
Do you think after all the preparations for Clinton's clothing, manner,
voice, background, hair, etc. that this 'leak' was an unplanned
event? Not likely. We've been had by the liberal media ( again ) , who'll
take whatever is given to them by Clinton & Co.
Ahh well, I guess we'll hear on Monday what Clinton has planned for us.
A few tears, some sorrow and guilt, a public apology to the Hill
and Chelsea, and he'll be ok. There, there, Mr. President. Have a hanky.
Meanwhile, back to the global market meltdowns and Rome burning...
Regards,
MG ( Go Gold! Go *sexual relationships*! Go definitions! )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:48
WDL (@oil) ID#235295: - Mike Sheller...I agree with your post about oil...I'm not an expert on the astrological reasons...but I do believe that down the road oil stocks will appreciate markedly. Must admit that I've dumped some of my gold shares...waiting for a dip in oil stocks...would like to see XOI
drop to 400...good buying opportunity...I know this all sounds like blaspheme before a gold posting audience. Well, during the heyday of the stock market rise in the 1920's...even the illuminati dropped Freud for utility stocks.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:48
strat (Skinny 19:21) ID#93241: - You forgot Elvis....
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:47
strat (JP) ID#93241: - I wasn't inferring that gold mines might be nat'lized, but the Feds could pass regulations, for instance, licensing gold possession ( I hope I didn't give our overseeing FBI & Treasury agents any ideas ) . With lawyers, any thing is possible...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:46
Mike Sheller (And furthermore) ID#347447: - And one more comment - along with brother Arden, our Chief Geologist, Clarity Resources could not have gotten where it is today without the visionary and magnificent Chad C. Meek, CEO and President, and guiding light. This deal-maker extraordinairre had the foresight to start a program of gold property accumulation at the worst ( read: best ) possible time. There is only one caveat for the resources business: Buy low, sell high. My thanks to Chad & Arden for putting it all together. Now all we need is rising prices. That's what we ALL need.
Yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:45
Envy (@Blooper) ID#219363: - Some stuff I learned about puts, thought you'd be interested ( maybe others too ) . If you like it, thank EB, he's the one who explained how it worked to me. Here's a place you can get quotes-
http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeopt.exe
Anyway, so, say you wanted to buy puts against Citicorp, you'd just go to that site and put in cci ( stock ticker ) and you'd get sent to this page-
http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeopt.exe?ticker=cci&ALL=1
That page shows all the put and call prices if you're buying. I think someone on here said you could negotiate the prices, and there are bid/ask prices there, but I paid market because my broker was a doofus. The put prices are on the right, the calls on the left. Basically, if you purchase a put, you're saying that in the future you think the price of the stock will go down to that level. Puts that are for prices higher than the current price of the stock are expensive, because they're already worth something, or as EB said it, in-the-money. The ones that are priced ( strike price ) lower than the current value, they are out-of-the-money. Anyway, the puts are worth more as the price of the stock drops. You can see from the chart for Citicorp that if you had an August put with a strike price of 100 and the price of the stock dropped 10 points, the put would be worth more, quite a bit more, there's a lot of leverage in purchasing puts.
Here's the quote for Citicorp puts in January for 90$US-
http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeget.exe?TICKER=.CIWMR
The market price on that one would be 5/16, or, 31.25$US for the contract. If you had a September put for 140 in your hands right now, it would have a market value of 7, or 700$US. Anyway, that's all I really know about it. If you purchase puts that are really far out-of-the-money, they're cheap, but they're likely to expire worthless unless the stock drops a bunch. The puts also have less and less value the closer you get to their expiration date. Anyway ... looks a whole bunch like gambling to me, which is part of the attraction. Please note readers: Envy is not an options trader - you will no doubt lose lots of money if you play with options and don't know what you're doing, which Envy doesn't, so don't think I'm even remotely suggesting that you try this. I'm also not suggesting Citicorp as a potential target if you do try it, I just remember that stock ticker off the top of my head. That is all.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:41
pot O gold__A (pot O gold ) Mike Sheller:) ID#170196: - Mike:
Opossium is those things that you take your dog out to catch, which you never see. But' Boy do they taste good with gravy and biscuits.
Twister
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:40
Tantalus Rex (@Sheller) ID#295111: - Good work Mike and congratulations!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:38
Mike Sheller (spud, silverbaron) ID#347447: - SPUD: You sure have a poetic way with words!
SILVERBARON: that IS ugleeee!
The chart looks like the kind of final drop that MUST be bought right now!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:38
JP (Strat---You are right) ID#253153: - Many people have been calling for a stock market crash for a long time and have been proven wrong over time. But I think that today's circumstances are different than those in the past. We have got parts of the globe that are already deep in recession and it's spreading to South America, Europe, Australia, Canada and the US. The fact that we are in a confirmed DOW THEORY BEAR MARKET say's it all. The primary trend of our economy is down. Declining stocks are forecasting vanishing corporate profits. As far as gold confiscation by the US government, I guess anything is possible, but I doubt it. I believe the US government is using gold price weakness to accumulate as much gold as they can.The mining industry in North America employes 250,000 people and these are all tax paying citizens. I Can't see nationalization of our gold mines.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:37
Tantalus Rex (@Dutchman @Silverbaron) ID#295111: - Dutchman: I hear many reports of insider buying in gold stocks but I cannot substantiate. I think the real turnaround for gold will be October/November of this year cause of the ECB Gold Sale policy guidelines will be disclosed around this time. Most likely, The will restrict golds sales and gold leasing within the National Central Banks in the EMU. But I've been wrong on my predictions thus far. However, all I need is to be right once!!!!
Silverbaron: I follow Uranium somewhat as well. Cameco ( the largest U miner in the world ) is my favorite but has taken a big hit like all other resource stocks. I can easily see Uranium mining companys increasing 10 times in ten years. Cameco also produces gold. It owns the 10th largest gold mine in the world. But the penny stock you quoted could move up real quick if oil moves too.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:36
STUDIO.R (@SpudO.........) ID#288369: - During general riots, I do like Athens ( Texas ) ...or Nazareth ( Texas ) ...or China Grove ( Texas ) ....I got me a pretty good Farmall you we need it....and a brush hog. I ain't interested in growin' okra though. Got a draw the line somewheres.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:34
Mike Sheller (Tantalus Rex) ID#347447: - btw- speaking of our neighbors Placer Dome & Silverado, you'll be interested to note that Clarity Resources, Inc. has a placer mine operating right now, producing for the first time under the Clarity name right next door. The last North American frontier for gold is Alaskan placer. We are proud to have fulfilled our initial promise to shareholders to begin producing gold THIS YEAR. And we are now doing so. This is a project made possible by and through Kitco, and I salute Mr Kitner and the wonderful folks here for making this forum what it is. I just want to report to Kitcoites that the public corporation you saw materialize here, and get promoted at gold ( that wonderful website ) eagle.com, is now a producing operation. Onward and upward. Along with brother Arden, I am proud to be a part of it. North to Alaska!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:30
Spud Master (@JP re. fully invested in stocks) ID#28586: - Them's fight'n words, mista...
Spud is fully invested in metals. Rather beaten, dented and hurting metals. ( bigger grin ) . But that's OK -- there is no alternative to the collapse of the now extended con-game being plyed by Wallstreet, the FedRes and FedGov.
War is Peace
Ignorance is Strength
Freedom is Slavery
-- from Bill Clinton's Monday night speach
What does not destroy you makes your hair fall out.
Spud ; )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:28
Silverbaron (Mike Sheller) ID#273432: -
Opossium is more like Unobtainium. ( ;^ ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:26
Spud Master (@Mike Sheller) ID#28586: - Nothing would make me happier than to see that American youth have not sucked up the informational poison that has been so generously ladled out by Hollywood, the Press and TV -- thought-poison designed to disable reason, skepticism, to replace them with the retro-viral engineered emotional responses -- just yank the emotion chain & they dance: I feel your pain ... An investment in the children... ...For the mothers of our nation ... yes, we are in fine, fine shape.
Sorry if you are offended by the image of a wasted NYC -- power goes out for a few hours in the seventies and the place nearly went up. What can I say? The place is toast-in-waiting. a high-tech Balkan penninsula waiting to be carved up into scorched-out little sky-scraper gang-territories. good luck.
Of course, when the news of the Great Depression II reaches East Texas people there will say: ... oh. Is that so. Doesn't really seem like that much of a change ( grin )
Spud
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:25
Silverbaron (Mike Sheller) ID#273432: -
Here's a sample chart of one of the Uranium
producers I'm watching for a turnaround.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=URIX&d=2y
Ugly, yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:25
strat (JP's 18:08 post) ID#93241: - A lot of people have been calling for a stock crash for so long that it's starting to look like water ( a mirage usually ) in the desert. The continuing run-up of stocks in the last year and a half has been fueled by individual investors, many of whom may do little or nothing in the middle of a crash ( That 401k payroll deduction is for my retirement, not stocks...duh ) . I'm starting to wonder if a crash of the US$ will come before a stock market crash ( something more than a bear market ) . I haven't had time to do my homework on the relationship between Japanese stcoks and the Yen in '89 and wonder what the sequence of events was in their demise. Any one want to set me straight. Was the cart before the horse or the horse before the cart? Also, I fear that if gold goes up real hard and real fast, the Federales in DC will invoke the Roosevelt Rule. Any comments appreciated. Got platinum
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:24
Dutchman (ORIS) ID#215235: - Thanks for the correction. What is your take on the insider buying at NEM? It seems that a lot of wealthy people are accumulating AU all of a sudden. And the record high of commercial longs is saying something. Even the Pollocks are buying. I get the feeling we're near a turning point!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:23
Tantalus Rex (Why PDG was up today) ID#295111: - I guess this is why PDG was up today when the XAU was down.
Probably won't be a big find but you just never know.....
Placer Dome U.S. Inc. Continues to Report Good Drilling Results on its Ester Dome Project
FAIRBANKS, Ala.-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --AUG. 14, 1998--
Latest drilling results show gold mineralized intercepts up to 0.04 OPT over 60 ft.
Placer Dome U.S. Inc. has released new analytical results from its Ester Dome lode-gold exploration project located on mineral property optioned for purchase from Silverado Gold Mines Ltd.
The Ready Bullion-Silver Dollar gold deposit area represents one of the most likely lode sources for much of the 3 million ounces of placer gold that was mined during the early 1900's along Ready Bullion Creek and Ester Creek.
Given Placer Dome's positive drilling and trenching results, it currently appears there is significant development potential for additional Silver Dollar-Ready Bullion lode-gold resources.
Placer Dome is continuing its drilling and trenching program in addition to soil sampling and ground-based geophysical surveying on the majority of its Ester Dome property interest. Results of this ongoing work will be released as they become available.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:22
Mike Sheller (pot o gold) ID#347447: - is opossium anything like uranium?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:22
JP (Spud ---Master-- You sound like a man who is fully invested in common stocks) ID#253153: - Are you fully invested ?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:21
Mike Sheller (JP) ID#347447: - it IS you who is responsible for ALL the troubles in the world. ( ;- )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:21
skinny (blooper) ID#28994: - After Golden Cheesehead's many postings on world government, and the demise of paper currencies, I think in all seriousness it is time we took action to stop such an event. I phoned Dwight D. Eisenhower and explained my concerns with this problem. Because of his past experience I thought he would be the best man for this undertaking. After reading Cheesehead's 15.11 posting, he too thought immediate action was necessary. He wants me to contact you and his old ally, Winston Churchill, which I have done. President Clinton said he was far too busy to attend a meeting on this problem as he has more serious matters to deal with. Queen Elizabeth has offered the use of Buckingham Palace for the meeting tomorrow at 5:00 pm GMT. Churchill mentioned that Cheesehead seems distraught and perhaps suffering from some mental disturbances, so it would be best if he were not invited to the first meeting. Looking forward to meeting you at the palace so that we may report back to this forum tomorrow evening 8:00 pm EST.
Regards, Skinny
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:20
pot O gold__A (pot O gold) EMPTY SPACE AND) ID#170196: - With Clinton resigning sometime next week, The stock market in a down turn because ( wise men pick their pick their fruit when its ripe ) Greenspan ( between the devil and deep blue sea ) computer revenge barreling down like a freight train, Y2k,ers taking their money out of banks,
storing food, buying guns and we have not as yet determined what is sex and what is lieing. Boy, We are in the wheelbarror heading down the road to a hair onthe dog good time.Common sense has flown the coop and landed heaven knows where, It didn't land in washington.
Clinton will have to resign or he is either the stupidest person that God ever allowed to be born. If he don't resign and he is caught he loses all his goverment benifits, protection, office expenses, and presidents retirement money, plus he will be disbarred and unable to ever hold the office of dog catcher.Starr has boxed him into a corner and he has to resign. The democrats will not carry his load into the fall elections.If Clinton stays in office and continue this stalling tactic any longer the republicans will be elected by the handfuls.
I think today he and Hilary gave some hints. The concern over Chelsa,
The hint to democrats union that they had been a good team and the fact that the whitehiuse is priming for a speech sometime monday.
Now what can he tell us that we haven't known for the last seven months. I think a deal has been cut between AlGore, Clinton, and Hilary. Watch out for pardons after Gore is elected in 2000. The republicans will not have anything to talk about with Gore as president and republicans will probably loose some seats in the elections.
Now with Clinton out of the whitehouse, what then. The aforemention problems will still be among us.Name me one good leader that can lead this country. The fact is there is not one person that can handle foreign policy, domestic policy or curriencey problems all at the same time, in our hour of need, and if there was one it takes too much time to instill.
Like it or not we are going to turn into a bananna republic in the next few years, We finally elected into the highest office of our land a dictator that took no more than six years to bring us to this crisis.
In 1999 the euro will become the domoniant currency in the world. Dollars will flow into euro faster than anyone can think of ways to stop the flood. The dollar will start coming home to roost like blackbirds to their tree in the evenings. Inflation will become like russia's is now and a gallon of gas will cost ten dollars because the oil producing nation will not take another chance on the old US deals for years years to come. They know that US will purchase oil regardless of who tyhe throw in with. The US military might will become a lease agreement whenever needed.
On and on goes the dominoes, what will be the plan to survive. Forget the college your kids were planning to go,forget retirement in style unless you own real hard assets or natural resources. Plan on a hand on
eyeball to eyeball, show me type of buying and selling in the future.
The opussium is treed.
Twister
PS: you might buy some gold and silver, some thinks its still money.
IMHO
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:19
Mike Sheller (Silverbaron) ID#347447: - I'm not too familiar with the Uranium market. Actually, not familiar AT ALL. But I wouldn't be surprised if in the next oil bull, probably beginning in '99, exogenous factors arise to take crude above $30 once more. I see a new plateau coming in for oil that will rev this market up a notch into a new, higher trading range. Perhaps there will be a link to Uranium as well. Porque No? Another will prove to be right in many respects. Beginning with oil. And beginning in '99.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:17
JP (Spud Master--I'm NOT the person responsible for all the problems the world is having) ID#253153: - I present idea's as I see them . I have spent many years researching, studying trends and markets. You don't have to agree with me. I only present my opinion as I see it. Again, only time will tell if I'm right or wrong.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:14
Mike Sheller (Spud Master) ID#347447: - Spud...give us New Yawkers a break, will ya! Our yoot ain't no more desolute den anny udder. Hey, lighten up. Maybe the depression will get so bad that we will eat each other. I thought I was a prophet of gloom & doom. It's always the current young folk who don't measure up to the way WE were when WE were kids. Know what? I think the younger generation is going to surprise a lot of people when the sh*t hits the fan. They will eat us all!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:11
Spud Master (@JP) ID#28586: - a misguided nut. have a Mr. Pibb and think it over.
be thankful you're not called a potato.
Spud ( grin )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:10
Silverbaron (Mike Sheller) ID#273432: -
Same true for uranium? These producers are even cheaper than oil producers.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:08
Spud Master (A depression will present FANTASTIC investment opportunities...) ID#28586: - Loudspeaker blaring out over husk of burned-out post Great Depression II New York City:
Shoppers! Shoppers! Excellent value on isle six! Don't wait. Shoppers, Shoppers, excellent value...
In the 1930's Americans still had morals, decency and could withdraw to semi-agrarian lifestyle. Today, we have none of the above. Just legions of amoral inner-city youth, and somewhat less amoral outer-city youth. This is the stuff that Hitler made into the SS, the Gestapo ...
[t]he best lack all conviciton, the worst ( Clinton et al ) are full of passionate intensity..
you get the picture. it's time again, nothing more.
Spud
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:07
Mike Sheller (Oil's well) ID#347447: - I tell you what ELSE is cheap ( a decline to $5 oil as one Kitcoite warns, notwithstanding ) : Oil shares. Shares of independent small producers, drillers, servicers, etc. But the turn will come in January of next year. Remember, I had said in the BEGINNING of '98 that the Saturn opposition to NYSE Neptune would keep oil down all year! This aspect relents as the year turns into 1999. Accumulate now, slowly, on weakness, the shares of producers and servicers of black gold. You have a six month window now. Do not waste it.
Yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:05
oris (Donald, 18:18 post, very straight info.) ID#238422: - That is what going to cause a big trouble.
No money is provided for saving Russian economy ( which
needs much more than G7 can afford and can not be saved
unless... ) . Those big chiefs just try to plug the holes
in paper bag with the paper stickers to prevent red-hot
chunk of steel from falling out of the bag...Do they
know and do they care? Yes, but they got no hope.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:03
Mike Sheller (Brother Oris) ID#347447: - They are ALL cheap! Vodka & Pickles until the new bull commences!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:03
JP (Spud Master-- I thank you for ncalling me a NUT) ID#253153: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:02
MM (She left out mouth + Monday public address?) ID#350179: - ...In the Jones case, US District Judge Susan Webber Wright ruled that for the purposes of this deposition, a person engages in 'sexual relations' when the person knowingly engages in or causes contact with the genitalia, anus, groin, breast, inner thigh, or buttocks of any person with an intent to arouse or gratify the sexual desire of any person....
Clinton sex claims 'guesswork'
http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_151000/151124.stm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 19:01
Spud Master (Paying goverment employees with cash ... chuckle...) ID#28586: - last time I checked, they are payed by electronic deposit -- magic numbers!
last time I checked in Texas, welfare recipients use the Star Card -- the Fed's electronic welfare payment card ( endows self-esteem ) .
last time I checked people in California used debit cards to buy stuff.
Soooo, just trying to say fixating on physically printing cash as an impediment to hyperinflation is silly.
Now a days, we run around with fistfuls of numbers -- hard to tell who has a few hundred trillion of hyper-dollars ( grin ) .
Spud
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:59
JP (Blooper--In a depression, all of us will suffer, myself included) ID#253153: - But you must remember, after the night, comes the day. A depression will present FANTASTIC investment opportunities for those that have got a few dollars left over from the previous carnage.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:59
blooper (JP) ID#207145: - Asia won't be down forever. You assume Japan will never recover. I agree that we are headed for trouble. How much? Who knows. Check with Jerry Favors. I bet his guess would beat yours and mine
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:57
Silverbaron (Donald) ID#273432: -
I'm afraid you're right.....the juniors would likely get killed in a market crash because of liquidity problems, even though they may have already lost 90% of their value from the pre Bre-X days.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:55
Spud Master (@JP: stop inhaling, dammit) ID#28586: - crazy statement #1: can't have hyperinflation without lots o paper cash
that's nutty & you've already been slappe with the ruler. If people had credit cards without limits, they'd be buying up to that limit, and chasing finite amount of goods with INFINITE AMOUNTS OF DIGITAL CASH.
crazy statement #2: $5 barrel oil
smack! People may not consume, but they damn well HAVE to consume OIL. Period. The Arabs will get their act together ( by hook or by crook ) and tells the West We don't need yor stink'n paper dollar $5 barrel oil, senior -- we jes wan 5 ounces of gold per barrel. Now be a nice cold, hungry banckrupt Westerner and run along
Spud
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:54
oris (Dutchman) ID#238422: - I think you are not exactly correct. NEM, which
holds 90% of NGC stock, is not known to sell
a lot of production forward. It's ABX.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:53
Donald (@Silverbaron, Hopeful) ID#26793: - If you wait a few days they will all meet those specifications. ( grin thing )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:53
blooper (JP) ID#207145: - The sky is falling. OK. Maybe you are psychic, like many more suamis, myself included. You really don't know. If Japan turns around, things will be different. I know where oil is now times three would be highly inflationary. Our dollar won't be king. That is inflationary. If, as you say, the sky falls. Kiss your ass goodby anyway. Mine too.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:49
BUFFORD (@Aragorn III******postage cheaper than CAU) ID#253246: -
I never thought I would see in my lifetime a share of CAU cheaper
than a 32 cent stamp.
You better take another trip to Golden and straighten your pal
Devoto out *******how low can this go
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:45
JP (Aragon III--let me educate you) ID#253153: - Paying government employees with cash means vast printing of dollars to pay expenses. In the US we have a credit system and a HUGE bond market. The capitalization of the bond market is 50 times higher that all the combined stock values world wide. If the bond market was sensing the the US government is printing money to pay expenses, interest rates will soar, US bonds will collapse and the government will NOT be able to sell any more bonds to raise money. Now, look at the long yield today. It closed at 5.54 %, a new high on government bonds. The bond market is telling you loud and clear, A DEPRESSION IS AHEAD. As the US government sees the country slipping into a recession, they will lower short term interest rates via a discount rate reduction and reserves requirements. But that stimulation will not help as the rest of the world has already sunk into a depression.It's too late.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:44
MM (What?) ID#350179: - ... removing the need for some safe-haven buying of gold...
( You mean there still is such a thing after all? )
Stocks fall; bond yield at record low on overseas woes
http://www.foxmarketwire.com/wires/0814/f_rt_0814_25.sml
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:42
Dutchman (Insider buying at Newmont!) ID#215235: - Steve Kaplan reports that the CEO and two other Newmont executives announced buying shares. If I heard correctly on this forum: Isn't NEM supposed to be a bellweather in the XAU and haven't they contributed to the fall in gold and gold mining stocks by selling forward and holding large short positions? What could this mean? Hmmmmm.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:41
Silverbaron (HopeFull @ Dollar gold stock closed-end fund) ID#288295: -
Well, close to it - there is one ( the fund name escapes me at the moment ) which invests only in junior mining companies, and trades on the Toronto exchange.
The symbol is BPT.A
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:39
mozel (@Reuters) ID#153102: - Some of those people have GOT to be composing with tongue in cheek.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:37
jtaher (Hopefull - re: close-end gold mutual fund) ID#249409: - Try BGR Precious Metals - BPT.A on the Toronto exchange.
They mainly hold junior gold companies - typically sell
at a discount of 25-30% ( not sure where they are now ) .
Good Luck!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:36
oris (TYoung) ID#238422: - Brother Tom,
You are correct, those shares are so cheap, that
in a year from now you gonna kill yourself for not
buying... Guess what, I got the same idea and bought
some NGC at 20, I remember it was at 60-65 not a long
time ago. And so, it is now at 17 or so....7 days after
I bought. Is this cheap? It's f...cking ridiculously
cheap, but why in the hell it dropped from 20 to 17?
Logical conclusion: wait for reversal, confirmed by
break above $305, then buy but watch the sucker every
minute until in gets to $340...then relax.
Hope, I helped you, my brother...PMSP.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:30
MM (I'm not an addict...) ID#350179: - O.K. maybe
Mooney - I thought Aurator was requiring the answer and the address in the same post is all. Congrats!
O.K. Nostradamus fans - could the first two lines be applicable to Y2K?
C-I Q-22
Ce que vivra & n'ayant ancien sens
Viendra leser à son mort artifice:
Austun, Chalan, Langres et les duex Sens,
La gresle & glace fera grand malefice.
Rough translation ( E. Cheetham ) :
A thing existing without any senses
will cause its own end
At Autun, Chalan, Langres and the two Sens
there will be great damage from hail and ice
Well, I guess that's a null question in that almost anything can be inferred from the Centuries - but it seemed applicable at first glance.
MG - I thought it was a notable coincidence ( Butler in Iraq + Islamic Jihad and ( Dune's Jihad against the machines that think ) . BTA, Dave was right - I need to seek help : )
Gratuitous newslink
Yeltsin Backs PM, but for How Long?
http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/news/02.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:29
Donald (Safe haven status of Swiss franc is slipping.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980814/dollar_end_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:28
Aragorn III (JP...18:08 (rats...I tried to get away, but had to deal with this)) ID#212323: - You said, Hyper inflation in the US is IMPOSSIBLE unless the federal government pays it's bills in cash instead of checks. So far they are paying their bills with checks.
You are always fundamentally correct with your messages. What happened this time, my friend? Where you interrupted and lost your train of thought? No harm done, unless you want to stick to this story...
There is NO DIFFERENCE when paying with checks vs. cash in regard to hyperinflation. Checks simply represent the paperwork for the ultimate transfer of dollars ( created by the Fed ) to another party in DIGITAL form. Paying with cash is the transfer of these same dollars ( created by the Fed ) to another party in PHYSICAL form.
Either way you look at it, hyperinflation is a result of very loose dollar-creation policy whereby the Govt engages in reckless deficit spending, pumping billions of dollars into the economy, swelling the accounts ( either digitally or physically ) of all those on the receiving end of the transactions. For example, to stop all taxation, but to continue to pay all welfare, employee salaries, and contractor services with direct deposit checks would lead to hyperinflation just as much as dropping the paper from helicopters. Money created with reckless abandon...that's the ticket for hyperinflation. And these days, most money is digital anyway...makes it MUCH more easy to hyperinflate...and saves ink and trees.
How do you see it otherwise?
( I may not be here when you reply, but will check back. If I am mistaken, I NEED to know. )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:28
mozel (Is There Bounce in the Rubble ?) ID#153102: - Mozel's odds for Clinton's Impeachment: Zero Chance of it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:27
HopeFull (GEORGE COLE>>>>if we get 1000 point dow spike up,) ID#402148: - will we get the blessed XAU spike with it as was the case in 1987, in anticipation of the end of the bull?
Thanks
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:26
HopeFull (CYCLST..what say you?) ID#402148: - HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:26
JP (Blooper--I disagree with you. ) ID#253153: - Even with the Euro becoming a reality I think that oil price will sink to less that $5 bbl when all said and done. I expect world wide depression to become visible even to the people in the US no later than 1999. In a depression, consumption of all commodities will evaporate. I have been to Japan and Indonesia recently and I have seen their populations and economies. They are already in a depression.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:24
HighRise (Will Clinton Testify?) ID#401460: -
One who thinks he will not. He will have a news conference instead. If he answers the questions the American people will loose all of their savings that are invested in the markets. As with the FBI files, he may try to blackmail the American People.
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a505739.htm
Note, Clinton has reserved network time for Monday night.
HighRise
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:19
HopeFull (Is there a closed ended mutual fund that invests in mostly dollar gold stocks?) ID#402148: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:18
blooper (JP) ID#207145: - Maybe you are dreaming if you see the Euro appreciating on the dollar, and that doesn't mean inflation for us. Oil will be denominated in Euros. If it is 3 to 1, our oil price will triple.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:18
Donald (Where does the money that has been loaned to Russia go? ) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980814/emerging_m_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:16
FOX-MAN__A (rhody; Yes, the way I undestand it, Eligible stocks are available for purchase) ID#288186: - or lease and registered stocks are owned. To be really sure, we may
need to consult RJ or A.Goose. It seems they have discussed this topic
in the past.
I also noticed that quite often the drawdown is roughly 600,000 or
a little more. My guess would be like you said. The delivery request
meets the consumer's demands for say, two weeks, so that is the amount
they withdraw. I have no idea if this is right. Just guessing as well.
Oh well, it's still real interesting! If I find out more I'll post it.
Likewise, any poster that can help us out, please do so. Thanks, Foxman
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:15
pot O gold__A (pot O gold) ) ID#170196: - With clinton resigning sometime next week and the stock market on a downward swing
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:14
aurator () ID#250121: - HEY, ALL YOU RUBES
Mooney* WON, sorry to keep you on tenterhooks, I had to go buy a mouse! Perhaps I should've bought Disney instead?
BTW, we don't use the word rube downunder, does it mean hick? Like country bumkin?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:13
blooper (Shortsellers talk to me. Ya doesn't has to be a Fleckenstein.) ID#207145: - Talk to me baby. How do I get started. Lucent? Cisco? Talk to me.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:10
gagnrad (Wehn there's blood in the streets the Cajuns make...) ID#43460: - ...boudin rouge! But alas I found no recipes for it so boudin blac will have to do. Goes really well with red habenero pepper sauce. Contains pork so not of everyone's taste, sorry ( 8-^ ( ) . With enough pepper it is a good way to stave off Wall Street blues and a good filler between the crawfish pie and squirrel, duck and rabbit gumbo. Goes well with beer, wine, Jack Daniels or other drink flavors but not with vodka unless the vodka is poured over watermelon slices. Costs less than 1/2 ounce silver per pound if you know where to look but doesn't ship well. IMHO
http://www.harborside.com/home/b/bigdave/french.htm
http://www.gumbopages.com/food/boudin.html
http://www.foodtv.com/remlive/02-13a.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:09
Aragorn III (Mooney*...thanks. I mean that.) ID#212323: - Always surprises me what thoughts on gold manage to assemble and pour forth from the frustrated bean I call a brain. Your support eases my pain...but only just a little. What I really need is aspirin and a nap.
Away...to an inn with a bed, and heavy curtains to keep out the light...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:08
JP (We are in a DOW Primary Bear Market) ID#253153: - The relentless decline in stocks is continuing and we probably will get a counter rally soon, but the trend is definitely down. So why is the XAU declining with the market? I have long maintained that for gold bull market to start we need a very traumatic event to trigger the move. That event WILL be a financial panic which I expect to occur within 6-8 weeks. Only after the financial panic, gold and the XAU will rise consistently for the next few years. I would also suggest that the best time to buy the senior gold stocks is when no one wants them. Now is the time. I would not rule out the possibility that the XAU may decline further, but look at the big picture. The XAU is down almost 95% from it's former high's in 1980. I truly believe that the senior gold stocks will reward their patient share holders when the move begins. As for stocks, they will go down ( with temporary rallies ) for the next few years. Interest rates may spike when defaults begin, but the long term trend is down and by the year 2000 the long bond will be around 2 %. As the depression sets in, cash, gold coins will be the primary vehicles for safety and appreciation. The dollar will decline after the financial panic against gold backed foreign currencies , but domestically, it's purchasing power will increase as all commodities except for Gold And Silver sink into the abyss. I know many of you are talking about hyperinflation, but I think you are dreaming. Hyper inflation in the US is IMPOSSIBLE unless the federal government pays it's bills in cash instead of checks. So far they are paying their bills with checks.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:07
STUDIO.R (@AragOrn3.........) ID#288369: - And may I hoist a fine Cuba Libre in your esteemed honor also! Wouldn't it be loverly to be with Kev and the Kitcos this weekend. WoW! we need to be there....next time fer sure. SaluD! GULP!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:07
TYoung (Brother oris...HELP me...I'm falling...again....) ID#317193: - Conversations with myself...my goodness mining share prices are way down...should I buy some now...don't you dare...why not...gold still falling...yes, but within a few dollars of almost 20 year lows...so what, gold still falling...catch the shares on the way up, not down...well...well...but they are so cheap.
Patience my son, patience. Oh, bullsh*t...I wanna buy some. No, wait. No, buy.
Seems I'm confused. Brother oris...talk me out of this.: )
Tom
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:06
Mooney* (@Aurator and Sheller) ID#350194: - Aurator - Thanks, commonwealth buddy! Mike - Sorry, just that your post this morning seemed to imply to me that you were one of those who spent 1/2 hour or more in traffic each way each day, ( easy to do in ANY big city ) , I should have known that you would not fall into that trap! Customer IS king to a certain extent, but there are limits! Have a great meeting tommorrow. Wish I could be there! If Reify brings out digital shots of the T.O. gathering take a look at my 'necklace'! Talk Soon.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:04
mozel (@ReEducation Facilities) ID#153102: - [ All of the really successful campaigns to move credits directly from the government's unaccountable credit account ( a.k.a. public debt ) to an accountable credit account from which it can be spent ( Whoopeee ) have involved Heath, Education, or Welfare. ]
Therefore, it is the conclusion of this committee, based on the testimony on the record that re-education has a medical, a scholastic, and a maintenance in the community dimension. Pilot results show that all three dimensions will require funding to guarantee a successful program. This committee will therefore recommend to the whole body funding for the American Medical Association, the American Education, Association, and the States Departments of Welfare and Social Services in the amount of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ to be allocated to institutions of heath, education, and welfare according the the guidelines prepared by committee staff.
{Ah, Mr Chairman, Harvard is on the list of approved institutions, is it not ? I'm sure it is, Mr Distinguished Representative. All your accredited re-education institutions are qualified. )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:03
Silverbaron (blooper @ short sales) ID#288295: -
Easiest way to sell short - buy the Rydex Ursa Fund ( $25K minimum ) or the Prudent Bear Fund. Ursa is an inverse-S&P fund - Prudent Bear is a short seller of high flyers.
Or, you could just buy put options on a major index. The further out-of-the-money, the more leverage ( also the most risk )
To short-sell directly, you need to find out if your broker can borrow the particular selected stock so that you can sell it short. You'll have to put up 50% cash margin on the sale, unless you hold marginable securities.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:01
STUDIO.R (@SilverBarOn.......) ID#288369: - I've never had so much fun droppin' a couple hundred thow...Salud!!! A Gulp....A Gulp....A Gulp...and a teeny little Puff to YA!!!
BTW, the cash I dragged outta' da bank this week....mostly hundreds...had never seen the light of day....brand new bills...and they all have a little B or a little airplane or a symbol that looks like omega on the backside upper right stamped in ink on them. huh?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 18:00
Aragorn III (Studio.R....have a good weekend.) ID#212323: - I'm much in need of rest...a long or short nap--whichever happens. Then shall raise a drink in your honor.
Tolerant1...enjoy the fine company you will encounter this weekend. Wish that I were there...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:58
crazytimes (Kitcoites, check out this chart!!!) ID#342376: - The DOW could fall to 1200 and STILL be in a long-term uptrend!!!
http://shahar.nets.com:2000/BK/bb.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:57
Mooney* (Aurator and MM and Aragon III) ID#350194: - Aurator - Tell the Rubes I WON! C'mon - be quick about it. Stop any further speculation as you know that that is the last thing taht we need about here, further SPECULATION. MM - What the hay you talkin' 'bout? You know my e-mail is public knowledge: moonstep@idirect.com IS my e-mail. Aragon III - your 16:44? was Very readable and Very enjoyable as are many of your interesting posts. Don't let us berate ourselves; there are enough simpletonic clowns in the world ready to step up to the plate, unasked, to perform that task, gratis.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:56
Mike Sheller (Catchup Ketchup) ID#347447: - MOONEY: Steve, baby, Are you on the Moon? the CLIENT is GOD in ANY business. My commute to the office is exactly 4 minutes by car, ( 7 with traffic ) and 20 minutes on foot ( 15 on 2 feet ) . This lets me get up at 5 am and work @ home for 2 1/2 hours before I leave the house. As for my appointment schedule, I am certainly working with the stars to attain the nirvana of not having to have any appointments ever again, except with my broker. But it's slow going these days. Wish me luck.
JOHN DISNEY: re your grocery list - You'll need some good recipes with that bag of vittles.
JAMES: 13:36 ( sounds like a quote from the bible ) Thank you so much for the compliment.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:54
Donald (The Dow calculated in pre-1933 dollars.) ID#26793: - The close tonight is 613.27. That is 7.25% down from the high of 657.74 reached on July 16, 1998.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:53
aurator (minnie. Mooney, aurphile & Humble1 GOLDEN NUMBER) ID#250121: - I had to go buy another mouse. THe last one ( minnie ) was bought in 1989, she had a long and illustrious mousey history, and today she died. Now cast away. The mouse for the 90's is slimmer, more athletic and is named Macally.
Mooney!
Marvellous mooney! The Golden number, Indeed. It will be my pleasure to forward ANOTHER extrapops to you. Was going to send one anyway for the kindness in assisting BJ with getting a Korean Pig. I tried to call notSam last night in Seoul, got his hotel then an engaged signal. I hope he emails me his bank a/c so I can Telephone Transfer funds to him.
Here is the complete answer. I hope aurophile & humble 1 take note of this magic number 19
Golden Number
The number giving the position of any year in the lunar or metonic cycle. Meton, an ancient Greek astronomer ( 5thCent BC ) found that the phases of the moon recurred at the same time and place in the sky approximately every 19 years. Each year has a golden number ranging from 1 to 19. The golden number is found by adding one to the given year and dividing by 19. the remainder in the division is the golden number. If the remainder is zero the golden number is 19.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:52
Donald (The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages) ID#26793: - Spot gold $300.67; spot silver $5.65; XAU 78.58; Dow/Gold Ratio 28.06
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:49
Mr. Mick (Tol1 - sorry can't be at the party, please lift a cold one for me................) ID#345321: - Also, I lost your email address. Salud!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:49
blooper (Thanks, Envy. There will be one more good rally first. Ther short.) ID#207145: - After Disney razzing, not sure EB will speak to me.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:48
Donald (The numbers below are all 144 day moving averages) ID#26793: - Spot gold $296.77; spot silver $5.88; XAU 75.01
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:48
Silverbaron (Aragorn III) ID#288295: -
You're in very good company on this forum.....who here hasn't taken a major hit or two? Hang in there, friend - just wait until November - we'll be cookin' with all these gold stocks.
IcantwaitIcantwaitIcantwait
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:46
Mountain Goat (@MM Re: your 14:50) ID#35087: - Butlerian Jihan...
Never to forgive, never to forget
I read the book so many times it's pages fell out.
Stilgar would know too.
MG
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:46
Aragorn III (Silverbaron...Yep, anything else wouldn't be gold.) ID#212323: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:45
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - Gold/Silver Ratio = 55.15. The 144 day moving average is 50.87. A year ago the ratio was 72.64
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:43
Envy (@Blooper) ID#219363: - If you can EB to comment on shorts, options, etc, it's well worth the effort - he knows a bunch about it. I look forward to seeing comments about shorts as well, though I'm still on the fence. They're made of steel, guy, I hope you make out big.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:43
Aragorn III (Isure...I'm in no condition to throw a punch...the blood in the street is mine.) ID#212323: - I'm content with my partial ownership of the company--it just troubles me to have missed this opportunity to attain those very same shareholdings at a small fraction of the price I paid. And used my saving to other purposes...such as buying gold, perhaps? Yep, that's the ticket.
Who knew the store would hold a fire sale?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:40
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - XAU/Spot Ratio = .211. The 144 day moving average is .252. A year ago the ratio was .315. There have been only three occasions where the XAU closed in the 59.XX range. Ranked according to the gold price, today is #3 and is the lowest XAU reading in 12 years and the third lowest in the history of the XAU. The #1 reading in this range was on July 25, 1986, with a gold price of $347.90; an XAU of 59.13 ( lowest in history ) and an XAU/AU ratio of .170 ( also the lowest in history ) The XAU began trading on December 19, 1983.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:37
Silverbaron (GOLDEN number) ID#288295: -
OK guys - Surely all of you REALLY know that the
only GOLDEN number that counts on this forum is
number 79.
That's the atomic number of ( what else? ) G O L D !
Atomic number = number of protons and number of
electrons in G O L D.
BTW, true throughout the universe.
So let it be written,
So let it be done.
Allrightythen.
Silverdolr@webtv.net
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:35
MM (Wow) ID#350179: - Kabila's whereabouts uncertain; rebels push for Kinshasa
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0814/i_ap_0814_78.sml
Bitterness toward U.S. mounts in Africa
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/bomb053.htm
Moonstep ( you forgot your email address )
The water-truck reference sounded familiar.
Hmmm, water-truck + explosive = big bomb.
So that's what those four-corners fugitives were after.
What would they try to blow up?
Hmmm, water + dam = hydroelectric generator ( Glen Canyon dam )
Destroys a section of the US power grid and flash floods the Colorado River Valley. ( Possible, no? ) gotta go BBL
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:33
ROR (To solve ) ID#412286: - the Problem we will eventually need reeducation facilities for financial services and the high touting high tech types to re orient society.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:32
blooper (SELLING SHORT. HOW DO I DO THIS?) ID#207145: - I feel a rally will start after a few days of angst. Would like to sell short then.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:32
Speed (Kaplan has posted the COT for today....) ID#28861: - http://www.investor1.com/writers/kaplan/index.asp
EXTREMELY BULLISH! ( so why is the price still falling? )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:32
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793: - Dow/Gold Ratio = 29.67. The 144 day moving average is 29.57. A year ago the ratio was 24.35 ( Closing prices from Monex of $284 and $5.15 were used for all calculations tonight )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:32
Isure (Aragorn ) ID#368244: -
Reference CAU, you really know how to hurt a guy.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:27
STUDIO.R (@wall street frenzy...........) ID#288369: - abby joe needs to turn down her energizer-powered love-a-matic-schtick a notch or two...her hair is gettin' real frizzy...just a little beauty tip from studio. GO GOLDBUGS!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:26
Aragorn III (Would anyone be so kind as to help carry the bull?) ID#212323: - Please...anyone? Fine, I thought so.
got gold?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:22
Mooney* (Golden Number AND Calculation AND Bananas) ID#350194: - Golden Number - The number of a particular calander year in the Metonic cycle used to fix the date of Easter. As established by the first Nicene Council, Easter is always the first Sunday after the Full Moon on or next after the vernal equinox, fixed as March 21 for this calculation. If the full moon falls on Sunday, Easter is observed one week later. Aurator - I hope that you are now going to send the exact same book TWICE to this adress. But this time send it economy! Disney, if adding these few lines to you costs me the contest you better have very nice digs ready for me when the wife and I go on our 'round the world tour. I WAS talking nice, and bananas DO fluctuate wildly in price in my part of the world. Anywhere from $.19/lb to $.79/lb. Amazing, eh?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:18
Nicodemus (Hello James, re your 15:36) ID#335379: - There in lies the problem. It seems that many politicians don't have a conscience.
See USA's top politician for examples!!
And then they say like Calvin ( Calvin and Hobbs comics ) ,yes but do I really have to have a good conscience, or can it be that I appear to do good.
OR maybe it's a phsycophantic type of consience...what kind of consience would you like me to have? OR... sociopathic consience I'll decide what kind of consience I'll have and the people be damned!
I pray we all excorsise good conscience.
Nicodemus, watching MT. St. Helens from a distance seeing if it will blow on Monday.
We watch MT. St. DC. together, Yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:17
ROR (ITS GREAT) ID#412286: - To see the welfare organizations for the rich investors fail...there is a God.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:13
G-Nutz (mouse) ID#433143: - aurator: get an intellimouse, or a genius netmouse.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:09
rhody (@ FOX-MAN: I have been reading your posts (and others) re.) ID#413307: - COMEX metals stockpiles with interest for months. Lately, I have
noticed a pattern. When there is a significant drawdown, it seems
to frequently be just over 600 000 oz. If you check back through
your records, the number in 600 thousands seems to recur with more
than random frequency. Is there any significance to the total
600,000+ oz of silver as a drawdown? IE, is there a large consumer out
there who is relying on COMEX to supply his day to day silver
needs?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:08
Aragorn III (I found a ten dollar bill lying on the ground.) ID#212323: - With it, I believe I will buy an entire gold company called Canyon Resources. Now, if I could only decide what to do with the change...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:05
Mooney* (Duhhh!) ID#350194: - Aragon III - Of course I got tolerance - he's in NY City! What I donne got is the Golden Number! Aurator - Did the Cage Rattler get the correct answer? And do you have an inexhaustable supply of those books - ie. are you the publisher? Mozel - You are getting too good for words. Later all.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:04
MM (Maskirovka?) ID#350179: - Yeltsin insists Russia economy should fare well
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/081498/world21_13155.html
farewell, bien fait.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 17:00
rhody (@ FOX-MAM: I wonder if you could clarify some things for us.) ID#413307: - Eligible stocks are available for purchase while registered warehouse
stocks are already owned, but are being held at COMEX, perhaps for
later delivery to their owners? Is this accurate?
If so, and if COMEX is the largest visible silver stockpile
left in the world, then at present drawdawn rates, we have
about 63 business days of silver supplies left, ( about 3 months ) .
Does this about sum up the situation?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:53
Envy (MM, Samhain) ID#219363: - Still plenty of time for my puts to pay off. I'm expecting a rally too, maybe Monday ?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:52
MM (Uncertainty) ID#350179: - These are the types of stories that activate my something is wrong synapses: ( RE Grizz @ 00:02 )
Indonesian Chinese are jittery as rumors of riots spread
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0814/i_ap_0814_74.sml
China plans to revise eugenics law, boost genetic research
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0814/i_ap_0814_75.sml
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:50
tolerant1 (Mooney, Namaste') ID#373284: - Consider it done...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:45
Trinovant (@aurator - it pays to read the question properly!) ID#359316: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:44
ForkLift__A (golden proportion) ID#324266: - one plus the square root of five, divided by two equals 1.618
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:44
Aragorn III (Failed national currencies...) ID#212323: - You can't simply and easily walk around with a fully grown bull on your shoulders...you don't have the strength, and the bull doesn't cooperate.
Once a country experiences lost confidence in their fiat currency, they cannot directly start with a clean slate and resume using a new fiat currency. A certain proving process is required. They must follow a specific economic evolution for their money to attain the lofty and ultimate goal of money by decree. ( Though this is doomed to be a losing and temporary state of affairs. )
We all know a friend or relative who, starting with a newborn calf, would walk around with the calf draped over his shoulders. The calf was young, light, and weak, so this was easily done. As the calf aged, our friend became stronger through this regimen, and the growing calf became accustomed to this routine, to the point where it had no need to walk on its own. In time, our friend would be found with a grown bull on his shoulders, and the relationship seemed perfectly natural as the bull had legs that were too weak and untrained to walk. Our friend would be seen as very capable and kind and generous to be helping this bull travel about.
So it is with money. When man decided to take an active and manipulative part in an otherwise natural system, constant attention was required to successfully reach the end result of a fully functioning fiat currency. Simply review the 200 year history of the American dollar and its slow ( and forced ) evolution/manipulation from silver and gold to paper backed by silver and gold, to paper with an empty assurance of gold backing, to paper alone. This progression was vital. Without following the necessary progession, the people will not carry the bull, and they would not accept paper as money.
When a currency fails, the telling signs are plunging exchange rates on the world currency market. The bull has died, and the man vows never again to become so attached. It is not possible to immediately replace this system similarly with a new man and a fully grown bull. I repeat...the new man is too weak ( plus he knows better ) and the new bull simply won't stand for these shenanigans. You must start it all over from the beginning. Or....let the young calf grow wild and free and let the man tend to his business, and money will naturally be what money will naturally be. And we all know what history and natural selection has concluded in that regard...
got gold?
We are at a point where too many currencies have failed. They must either restart the fiat-evolution from the beginning, or else gravitate toward a fiat system that has not yet failed.
The risk to the USDollar, as the last man standing, is that should any country try to properly reestablish their OWN currency, the starting point would be gold. And everyone would IMMEDIATELY see **the young calf running free with an unburdened man** as a system superior to ***man forever burdened with crippled bull***.
got bull?
got gold? !!!!!!!!!!
This is MY only post of the day worthy of reading...if even that.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:43
mozel (@Envy) ID#153102: - I don't have my right to the pursuit of happiness from Congress. Now, those souls and their posterity who were made freedmen by Congress and then citizens of the United States by the 14th amendment may agree they depend on Congress for the civil right to own gold. But, that ain't me and mine.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:40
aurator (Have Bad Mouse. Trinovant/Donald that is golden ratio, not golden number. please try agagin) ID#255284: - I must get ANOTHER mouse
Prize still open, so is my mouse
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:38
SteveIS__A (Boy Clinton Rally) ID#280339: - Monday Billary testifies. There's a lot of fear in the market because of the danger to his presidency this represents. But the only one who can talk about the testimony is CLit-tongue and his spin team.
The major media will help portray the events in the most positive way possible. The markets are already over sold. The Vix is showing a high level of fear on a moderately down day.
This smells like a bear market rally to me. Of course I'm bullish on gold so my advice is obviously dangerous.
Got Gold!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:38
George__A (John Disney) ID#433172: - Do you ever buy grain? Wheat-corn etc. Whats it cost? Whats your take on Drooy?
What do you feed your dog?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:37
FOX-MAN__A (On the Comex Silver, that 628,651 oz's removed was from the eligibles!) ID#288186: - !
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:37
MM (Almost done) ID#350179: - Mooney - will rent WTD this weekend.
Aurator - was that Golden Number or Golden Ratio? ( Still not gonna leave my email ; )
PS. Webcrawler returns very strange results for Golden Number ; )
MOA: An extremely large *extinct* flightless bird indigenous ( sp ) to NZ?
GC: Message understood. Go Broncos! ( sorry, I did have a C-Note on them...; )
ENVY: Enjoy your perspective - wait until Samhain, should be very interesting. I was expecting a final DOW surge to 9650, not nearly as sure now. Who stands to gain? I will think long and hard on that one.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:35
FOX-MAN__A (Comex Silver eligible vs. registered) ID#288186: - TOTAL REGISTERED
40,181,321 0 0 0 0 40,181,321
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
38,701,989 0 628,651 0 0 38,073,338
COMBINED TOTAL
78,883,310 0 628,651 0 0 78,254,659
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:34
Envy (Again) ID#219363: - I mentioned this early this morning but I'm sure some have forgotten and didn't see it. Take a moment to smile - on this day, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy four, Congress authorized US citizens to own Gold.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:34
rhody (@ FOX-MAN: Thank you for keeping us updated on COMEX warehouse) ID#413307: - totals in pms. I agree, it is extremely critical info.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:34
FOX-MAN__A (Comex Gold..Eligible vs. registered) ID#288186: - TOTAL REGISTERED
980,761 0 0 0 0 980,761
TOTAL ELIGIBLE
103,370 0 0 0 0 103,370
COMBINED TOTAL
1,084,131 0 0 0 0 1,084,131
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:33
EZ Believer__A (symbol and story on St. Judes) ID#173262: - Bob Bishop isn't alone. I just got a solicitation booklet from Doug Casey touting his fabulous recomendations. There must be another newsletter that I wasn't reading. Investors loading up on his Chase , Goldbelt and other recomendations sixteen months ago are nearly at zero. New crop of investors is right!
Anyone have the symbol and brief story behind St. Judes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:31
mozel (@moa) ID#153102: - What a common American citizen can do is identify the Enemy. See my previous post.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:30
FOX-MAN__A (COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS. SILVER DOWN SOME MORE!) ID#288186: - COMEX Metal Warehouse Statistics for Aug. 14
-- TOTALS
Gold 1,084,131 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 78,254,659 - 628,651 troy ounces
Copper 57,997 + 126 short tons
N/A= Not available.
********************************************************************
I still think this is relevant info to keep an eye on! If fellow
kitcoites don't mind, I'll keep posting this info whenever I'm in
the office. I'll also try to post the registered/eligible breakout,
as well. Foxman
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:29
mozel (@Sequin) ID#153102: - Oh, yeah, silly me. It's not like Mexico, I guess. Yeah, man, we need those structural reforms to restore confidence. ( see previous post on the Con Man's Lexicon ) Or at least talk about them.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:28
Trinovant (@aurator) ID#359316: - I exempt myself from your prize, since I already have a copy.
Go Gold
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:25
mozel (@Gold Dancer @The Enemy) ID#153102: - It's going to be a challenge for membrs of the silent generation to stifle themselves in the coming days, I think.
If you are acknowledging and paying a tax debt to a State in FRN, I have met the enemy and he is you. You want to impeach Clinton for treason to the Constitution. Impeach yourself first.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:24
SEQUIN (@ MOZEL) ID#25171: - Will they ?
I would have thought that the russian government and the IMF would agree that the money in the packages was to be spent on structural reform rather than on a western banks bail outs.
Anyway if they want to settle it by tuesday they will have to wake up camdessus.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:22
Trinovant (Golden Ratio) ID#359316: - The golden ratio number can be derived from the definition:
A rectangle with sides x and y such that the ratio of the
two sides ( x/y ) is equal to the ratio of the larger side
to the sum of the sides ( this has something to do with
classical architecture ) . Written down as an equation you
get x/y = y/ ( x+y ) or x^2 +xy -y^2 =0 which ( to cut a long
story short ) has the roots ( ( sqrt ( 5 ) +/- 1 ) / 2 ) , one of which
is given on the site quoted by MM; you can verify these roots
by substituting back into the formula.
These roots are approximately 0.618034 and 1.618034. Note:
the decimal digits are the same! And if you take the reciprocal
of either root you get the other one! This ratio of sides
is supposedly the most restful to the eye, hence its value
in architecture, and also in photography, which is where
I first came across it. The best ratio of sides for a TV
set would be 1.618034:1; when composing photographs
aim to place objects in the frame so as to bisect the horizontal
or vertical in the golden ratio ( approximately 5:8 which can
be estimated by eye ) .
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:22
Donald (@Aurator) ID#26793: - The golden number is .618. It is calculated by dividing a Fibonacci number into its next lowest Fibonacci number.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:22
aurator (Death of a Mouse) ID#255284: - Wee sleekit cowrin' timrous beastie
==
my mouse has just died, I have it in pieces before me, the vertical hold has karked it, but, I've had it since 89, and that's a good old mouse.
Time to bury it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:21
John Disney__A ( Tut tut tut - zie) ID#24135: - to all ..
How long does anyone think
Kabila will stay in Kinshasa
I heard he's already left town
for points south.. Tutzi comin
from east and west.
The congolese army wont last
long .. tutzi battle trained ..
congolese trained robbing civilians.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:20
moa__A (mozel, sequin; Money-go-rounds ) ID#281175: - If I didn't know better I would think you guys are implying the whole ( w ) banking system is a corrupt old boys club lining each others pockets. Everybody's in on it, all the way up to the World Bank and the much trusted IMF?
Somehow I agree.
What can a common citizen do?...take them to peoples court....Judge Judy?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:20
Envy (Winners) ID#219363: - I've been thinking for the past day or two about who would win on the collapse of Asia, Russia, etc. Let's face it, anything that changes in nature has an equal amount of good and bad - if a rock falls from a cliff into a stream, it lowers the mountain, and fills the sea.
So we've focused on who loses if Asia melts down, Russia follows, etc. That's easy, all kinds of financial markets lose along with other groups and organizations. People pull their monies out of equities, call in debt, all kinds of other stuff.
But who gains ?
One group of organizations I can think of that stand to gain a lot right now, and are probably feeling their oats at this point, are terrorists organizations. People tend to predict what they want to see happen. Goldbugs do it, talking about things and making predictions that line up well with the price of Gold increasing. But terrorists organizations, especially the ones in Asia, they want very much for there to be chaos, disorder, confusing, fear, etc. They stand to gain a lot from situations and environments like that. If anyone is having a good couple of months, I would think it would be terrorists organizations. If you were a terrorist right now and saw the west as your enemy, I'm betting you would believe that right now was the perfect time to pull out all the stops. Anyway, that line of thought coincidentally fits well with a rise in terrorist activity lately.
Who else stands to gain from world dis-order ?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:18
Gold Dancer (Mooney) ID#377196: - Appreciate your comments on my disjointed 13:08. However, I do
know that the IRS has approved community money which is non interest
bearing and that this money is being tried in various places around
the Country. I am going to Orcas Island in a few weeks and will
report back to the group.
Didn't take offense: I was also taken a-back when I heard this
was true. At the time I looked into it and found out it was REAL!
Thanks, GD THE key is that it is non interest bearing.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:13
mozel (@Sequin) ID#153102: - Of course, the Russian Banks will pay. What do you think the IMF is for anyway ? The intermediary banks will only get burned if they were not savvy enough to sell the options to banks which have no influence with the Wizard in Emerald City. Selling them to, say, World Bank would be pretty safe I would say.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:08
John Disney__A (you're goin bananas..) ID#24135: - Mooney ..
maybe YOUR bananas vary wildly..
my bananas are very consistent..
Now talk nice or Ill NEVER tell
you the straight scoop on Harmony.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:04
Gold Dancer (John Disney) ID#377196: - Harmony: I am talking about the ADR's. Still seems strange.
Drooy trades 100,000 shares a day. Harmony trades 1000 to 0 ?
It just seems strange. The bid and ask is 3 15/16 to 4. No trades.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:02
moa__A (aurator) ID#281175: - ki-ora, tin a cocoa, tin a cocoa, tin a cocoa ; )
The liberated chinese gooseberry is a loose cannon on deck.
Birds of like feather flock together, but what's in a name anyhow?
But I did so like to fly the flag.....flightless again.
And hey what about that gold, huh?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:02
SEQUIN (A little tale you will like) ID#25171: - One year ago , some Russian banks came to the FOREX derivative market with the intent of selling options on ruble non deliverable forwars ( it means that you settle the trade in US dollars ) As their credit status was poor they finaly ended up selling these options at a huge discount to the then current implied volatility ( 4 to 5 % lower )
The banks which traded against them hedged their trades by selling back the options they had bought to other US or European banks with a huge potential gain if all went well ( they had no exposure to the market but had to make sure that they would get paid at expiry if the options were in the money )
2 billion dollars were traded.
The Russian banks have lost hundreds of millions of $ on these trades.
Now , if they pay , the intermediary banks will have earned a few million $ ( the difference between the premium at which they bought and sold )
If the Russian banks don't pay they still will have to honor the other side of the trade loosing huge.
DO YOU THINK THE RUSSIAN BANKS WILL PAY ?
THE FIRST SETTLEMENT IS NEXT TUESDAY.
HOW LONG WILL THEY BE ABLE TO COVER IT UP ?
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE REVERSAL TODAY IN THE DOW?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 16:00
themissinglink (M3 growth slowdown, say goodbye Dow bull!) ID#373403: - M3
1997.08 5195.8
1997.09 5234.7
1997.10 5271.9
1997.11 5323.9
1997.12 5374.9
1998.01 5421.5
1998.02 5461.7
1998.03 5527.1
1998.04 5574.3
1998.05 5602.8
1998.06 5628.1
1998.07 5630.0
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:56
Mooney* (Bananas) ID#350194: - Disney - Everyone knows that bananas fluctuate wildly. C'mon. Haven't you ever heard of comparing apples to apples? This is definitely more reliable! MM - Check out the movie I mentioned this morning! The movie has the President's spin doctor's targeting Albania as a decoy. Amazing co-incidence? Life copying fiction? Selby, my friend, You're losing it? Avalon - I'm listening! Disney - cough up the goods on Harmony! Gold Dancer's disjointed 13:08 reminded me of a coffee shop conversation that I overheard in rural ( cottage country ) Ontario, ( Bobcaygeon ) a couple of weeks ago wherein the local middle adged matrons were discussing setting up a local currency. Weird eh? ( Also, Gold Dancer, I agree that $40-50 million for the stated purpose is a little excessive given the cirCUMstances. ) ( There he goes again - Reagan. ) tolerant1 - Thanks for news. say Hi to Reify and his lovely wife for me. Hope ( KNOW ) your NY Kitcoite meeting will go as well as the one we had in T.O. Cheers to all who attend! I know I missed a lot today, but its hard to keep up with this ever expanding group of knowledge. BTW- Someone wished earlier this morning that they could be enrolled in a course concerning behind the scenes manipulation. In addition to all the other facets and permutations of this group, this is the place to be baby, and donnnn youuuuu fergetttt it! ( Snagglepuss? ) Glenn - Where you at baby? And Byron at the Library? APH - I'm counting on ya! ALL - ITS Clobberin'TIME! Thing - FF. BBL.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:55
Gold Dancer (James) ID#377196: - A NEW crop of investors will come from the people now in the stock
market. It will take time to develop but the first run up should be
pretty good because of markets being so over bought and over sold.
By the end of August this will begin. September should be better
still.
Thanks, GD All some need to so is start shifting money to the
gold funds from the stock funds. It will happen sooner than most
think. James Stack thinks that when the turn comes it is going to
shock most people just how fast the money changes direction.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:54
aurator (what's in a name?) ID#255284: - moa
Haere mai, haere mai, haere mai.
By free kiwi do you mean:
1. liberate the poster formerly known as kiwi from the dreadful 404?
2. Allow the NZ dollar to plummet to 22¢ US?
3. You want a gold kiwi coin for nothing?
4. You are a free kiwi?
5. I am a free kiwi?
6. MacDonalds should give a free kiwi with every Big Mac?
7. You can't undo your tin of shoe polish?
8. I am a fruitcake formerly known as a chinese gooseberry?
BTW, should we tell our kitco brethren snd sistren the meaning of your handle? It sits comfortably with discussions hereabouts some months ago on dinars and dinners, yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:54
moa__A (Gold morality.) ID#281175: - Surely, the morality of holding gold transcends petty debates involving political fads, e.g., socialism, capitalism.
It is a basic human right ( freedom? ) to have a sound store of value ( money ) . Any interference in this by any individual or group ( governments particularly ) is immoral.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:48
mozel (@The Morality of Taking) ID#153102: - Taking from the poor to give to the rich is no more or less morally reprehensible than taking from the rich to give to the poor. Robbery is robbery either way or not at all.
Socialists are people who are too stupid to realize that if the big house on the hill is not safe from government, the little house in the dale is not either.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:47
moa__A (aurator) ID#281175: - hello.
free kiwi.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:46
Gold Dancer (James) ID#377196: - Thanks for the warning on Bishop. He has been wrong a lot. But so
has every pro gold guy. Nobody, including this dude, ever thought
that gold stocks could go so low.
I own a few thousand shares of St. Jude and I think it looks
very, very good. Good luck. I could see new all time highs on that
one. If they have the goods. I they are honest and that they do
have the gold. Lots of it, and very rich grades.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:44
Envy (@James) ID#219363: - Yeah, I see where you're coming from and have read some of the other posts on the forum related to it all. And don't get the idea that I'm for the IMF or what the CNBC'ers were talking about today, that's not the case. But in their view, the view of world civiliation, I don't think they really feel bad about some people getting rich in Russia, or some poor people paying out money, etc, etc. To them, it's more a matter of, well, for the moment - sacrificing a few bees to save the hive. I'm sure they know that the markets are corrupt, but I seriously doubt it's one of their big priorities - they've got nuclear weapons, riots, and all kinds of other things to worry about and probably couldn't care less if some Russian mafia guys are purchasing diamonds with American money. At least, not for now.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:40
James (My 15.24@ should have read) ID#252150: - We need a NEW crop of investors.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:39
Cage Rattler (Golden Number) ID#33184: - The Golden Number can be calculated by taking the remainder of the year divided by 19 and adding 1 to it.
The Golden Number is notated using roman digits. So, possible Golden Numbers are I, II, III, IV, ... to XIX ( 1 to 19 ) .
For example: the Golden Number for the year 1997 is III [1997 mod 19 + 1 = 3].
The Golden Number is used to find epact dates - see below - ( new moon dates ) :
http://utopia.knoware.nl/users/eprebel/Calendar/Tables/Epact.html
----------
cagerattler@hotmail.com
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:37
MM (Party pooper) ID#350179: - http://www.rose-hulman.edu/~bonjouaf/gold_phi/gold_phi.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:36
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (MY FAVORSITE JERRY--) ID#394240: - Thinks we're getting close to a market low, followed by a secondary rally of 40-80% of the prior decline, followed by a much more dangerous wave down! Says we've put in A MAJOR DOUBLE TOP and will probably not again see the old highs! Says there's always been a secondary rally and after that secondary rally exhausts itself THAT will be the beginning of the REAL BEAR MARKET!! Looking for a rally around August 18-24 give or take 2 days!! Caveat emptor!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:36
James (Envy@IMF. It may be politically logical, but many crimes & travesties of justice) ID#252150: - seemed logical to the perpetrators at the time. When Hitler seized power evrything he did for many years seemed logical to him & the Germans & even his final solution seemed logical in his twisted mind.
What they are doing through the IMF is morally reprehensible--taking from the poor & giving to the rich. And any polititician/bureaucrat that is involved & has a conscience must be painfully aware of it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:33
Gold Dancer (Golden Cheeshead) ID#377196: - Thanks for the post on the big picture. This is what they have
planned. But will it work? I think it will because of the generations
in power. The real crisis won't come for about 10 to 15 years when
the Boomers children get into power. The won't take this s*** from
anyone!!!
Anyone read the book by Strauss and Howe called The Fourth Turning?
They also wrote a book called Generations.
I am from the silent generation. We didn't do much. And won't. We
just try and make everyone happy. We try and smooth things over and
so we make everything complicated. That's where all the govt. paper
came from. So we are worthless as far as changing things go.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:32
mozel (@Restoring Confidence) ID#153102: - A phrase describing the process of re-assuring the sucker while you are devaluing his savings, secretly expropriating his property, and enslaving him and his posterity. From the Lexicon of Con Men.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:32
aurator (-----A golden puzzle------) ID#255284: - Morning All
Finally found ANOTHER puzzle worthy of the esteemed gathering, prize is, of course, a copy of Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay. It shall be sent to the first one to answer BOTH limbs to this question and publishes an e-mail address:
What is the GOLDEN NUMBER and how is it calculated?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:30
PMF (Okay you guys...Just what are you up to ?) ID#224363: - I pop out a little after lunch to get some paint and both thw DOW and TSE are up a good 60-80 points. I come back one and a half hours later and they're both down. Nice Job !!!
Noticed that there seems to be a little bit of a pattern lately with the S&P on globex. Last few days it has been up a good number of points in overnight globex and the market shoots up in the AM. Then it runs out of steam and dies. Does that sound very bullish
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:27
Aragorn III (Mooney*...OK, with that I will assume that your daughter is alive and well, ) ID#212323: - And I shall continue to burden this site with my occasional posts.
got tolerance?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:24
James (I still get a kick out of Bob Bishop's comments a few months after Bre-x had) ID#252150: - crashed the Vancouver mkt. He said We need a crop of investors. He he he.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:23
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR MM--) ID#394240: - It will happen whether I cheer it on or not! It's all been prophesied! Nothing can change it! What more can one do when he sees the truth behind the illusion, but get him and his loved ones out of harms way as best he can and try to make as much lemonade as he can between the now and the inevtiable? There are no good alternatives! Those who are prepared and make some money on the folly of the masses will be in a much better position to help society than those who aren't and only contribute to the problem! DOW DOWN 76! AND THREATENING TO TAKE OUT 8300!!! LOOK OUT BELOW!! IT'S A LONG WAY DOWN TO SUPPORT!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:21
Mooney* (@ Aragon III) ID#350194: - You're a card Aragon, you're a card!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:20
Envy (@James) ID#219363: - Re: lying b*stards. They aren't _exactly_ lying, they're trying to restore confidence, it actually is a little different. If I'm standing out on the sidewalk talking to someone I know about building a new building in an empty lot, and someone else comes by who wanted to turn that lot into a city park, if they hear me say The building that's going to be here will do a lot for the local economy, provide a nice place for business, bring in new jobs, etc, they person who wants a park there may very well think I'm lying to the person I'm talking to. In their view, the new city park proposal has much more merit, they see the world very differently, and I'm just a bullsh*t artist trying to sell someone on something that shouldn't happen in the first place. In short, I'm a liar trying to deceive people with my far out dreams of silly things. In truth, we're probably both wrong and the person who owns the land intends to put a sewage treatment plant on the property and just hasn't told anyone yet.
Saying that they have talked with Yeltsin and are trying to restore confidence in the Russian markets, etc, only makes them lying b*stards if you don't agree with what they're trying to do. In their view, with the goal of restoring confidence, bringing Russia back from the brink, etc, it was a very politically logical move. They aren't ignoring the problems, but I don't think they see them as things that are definitely going to bring the Russian civilization to it's knees, they see them as challenges that stand in the way of Russia's continued growth. Like I said, in their eyes, they aren't lying. Not exactly.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:20
MM (Downdrafts) ID#350179: - XAU under 60
DOW under 8400
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:19
Isure (Dow -70) ID#368244: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:18
James (Gold Dancer@Good luck with Bishop, because IMO that's all it comes down to) ID#252150: - with the jrs. I was starkly reminded of that this morn when I noticed Arizona Star trading at a dollar something. I sold it at 17.50. If I had only been able to discern when Bishop's luck was about to run out. Actually it turned with Corriente. Right now I'm thinking of placing a small bet on St. Jude. I'll try to catch it on an increase in price & volume that could indicate that good results are about to be released.
OTOH, it's so low now I may just go ahead & buy a few 1000 & hope for the best.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:16
MM (Cheesehead) ID#350179: - That being the case, why do you cheer it on? In whose camp would you reside.
The VII & VIII circles are going to be packed.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:14
Aragorn III (All, I'm not sure I can continue posting on this forum...Mooney*'S 12:52 post was too troubling...) ID#212323: - Went out in the canoe last weekend. Caught a beauty 15.5 Bass. Ate it
with my 7 year old daughter...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:13
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Mozel -- Forgot to put ' around money as in 'money'.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:11
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (PREPARE FOR WORLD GOVERNMENT!!) ID#394240: - This whole currency, derivative, equity, paper, financial, social, political crisis has been orchestrated by the monied elite to abolish the nation state, destoy all currencies, destroy all governments, destroy all constitutions, deatroy all religions, buy up all the gold at give-away prices, and rule the world with the gentle glove of an all-wise, all-powerful, all-seeing, benevolent but malevolent fascist dictatorship--the secular humanist, socialist, fascist equivalent of GOD--Government Of the Dictator, by the Dictator, and for the Dictator, all in the name of love, peace, equity, egalitarianism and justice!! Vive the world Antichrist!! The great beast is now rising from the sea!! Woe to you and me!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:10
mozel (@Eldorado) ID#153102: - As I said in a previous post, it's absolutely necessary for government running on credit that people believe they are paying tax with real money. Just what is that money you refer to. It is a debt obligation which has been used on the books to buy another debt obligation accounted for in units of the original debt obligation. FRN : Bonds : payable in FRN. When you get your consciousness around this, welcome to the end of your mind as you knew it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:09
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Spud -- Yea, I know they spend it on current gov expenditures. They WOULD have to make an 'adjustment' in that. Thus, to gain pseudo credibility, all the talk about 'surpluses'. HAR! But I bet they manage to ram it through! ANYTHING for the bankers!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:09
John Disney__A (Screwup ) ID#24135: - To all ..
compare the last 2 numbers ..
ie bananas $0.17/lb versus 0.50/lb
etc..
to gold dancer
Have no clew .. you are looking
at ADR volumes .. Harmony volume
if off a little here but nowhere
near the extent of the ADR vo;ume.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:07
James (Mike McCurry is now on CNBC mouthing a bunch of platitudes about how) ID#252150: - Yeltsin has assured the President, new pledges,etc.,etc. What a lying buch of hypocritical b*stards. I need a beer & it's only 12.15 pm here.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:06
Spud Master (@Eldorado) ID#28586: - Ha! Investing Social Security funds in the stock market?
WHAT Social Security funds?
You and I both know they are spent up the INSTANT the FedGov gets hold of them.
Got any other fantasies?
WHEN do we stop believing that ANY MONEY is waiting for us in those ^@$ ( $@ ( %*@$ social safety nets, eh? THERE'S NOTHING.
Nothing except YOUR involuntary slavery to the corrupt, venal bureaucrats and politicians who are LIVING WELL NOW spending the moeny you have given them for YOUR FUTURE.
Spud, 1776 Now!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:05
Gold Dancer (James) ID#377196: - Agree with your post. And they will find more on the Costa Brava
of Spain. When I was there 27 years ago there were several Russians
that had just bought large mansions on the Costa Brava. The Swiss
man I was talking to ( who also owned a home there ) just shrughed his
shoulders. He wasn't concerned!!!
It is getting out of control and I agree with your conclusion.
Is there any other way? Not that these people would understand.
Why do we put up with it and what will be the catalyst to set
things off?
In the meantime I just called Bishop's hot line and his latest
update says that the next few weeks are the most critical in the
world of finance he can remember. I agree. August is the month.
I expect the deflation trade to get creamed. Yen up. Nikkei up.
Gold up. Silver up. Dollar down. All big time.
Thanks, GD What about Harmony? Anyone? No trades yet!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 15:04
John Disney__A (shopping Basket) ID#24135: - To all
I have taken the liberty of
posting the text of the email the
chap in question sent me .. I make
a mistake .. he said bread was
2 to 3 bucks for a 1.5 pound loaf.
Format .. item ,rand/kg,$/kg,$/lb
CAPE TOWN LOS ANGELES
bananas,1.99,$0.32,$0.15 $.69/lb
Bruss. Sprouts,6.99,$1.12,$0.51 not available
Onions ,2.29,0.40,$0.18 .50/lb
Potatos, 2.29, 0.37,0.17 .60-90/lb
Gr Peppers,3.99,0.64,0.29 .59/lb Bell pepper
Eggplant, 3.99, 0.64,0.29 not available
Tomatos, 2.99,0.48,0.22 2.00-2,50/lb ( 3type
Apples,3.99,0.64,0.29 1.00-1.50/lb 6type
Ruby Grapefruit 3.99,0.64,0.29 .79/lb
Item
Olive Oil French ( Amphora ) 750 ml bottle .. 19.99 = $3.22
Celery bunch 1.99 = $0.32 $1.00/bunch
Pineapples 2.50 = $0.40 .89/lb
Papaya large 2.99 = $0.48 .79/lb
Parsley bunch 0.99 = $0.16 .50
Coriander bunch 1.29 = $0.20 .59
Spinach bunch 0.99 = $0.16 .99
Mushroom packet 3.99 = $0.64 1.59=1/2lb
Cocktail tomatos 3.99 = $0.64 3.20/lb Cherry T
butter lettuce 0.99 = $0.16 .99/each
Bread brown loaf 2.50 = $0.40 $2.00-3.00 15 Brands
All 1 1/2 lbs
OLIVE OIL 8 brands 6 sizes all Italian ( EXTRA VIRGIN=the best
grade ) 750ml=$9.00 I'm sure the best grade is your choice!!!!.....
Appears your food costs average 4 to5 times less than mine!!!!!!!
L.A.is becoming more $$$$ Less middleclass more Rich and poor 3rd
world city!!!!!!!!
Im not trying to prove anything
one way or the other .. But the Rand
on this basis seems way undervalued
relative to the dollar.
Bt the way .. other surveys
indicate that CHEESE is pretty
CHEAP worldwide ... heh heh heh
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:54
crazytimes (@ James) ID#342376: - Martin Armstrong, of Princeton Economic Institute has a similar story. He was traveling in Greece and had hired a limo and chauffeur for the day. Half way through, the chauffeur got a call. He told Martin Armstrong that he needed to respond as this was his best tipping customer ( a few thousand dollar tip ) The chauffeur did give Martin Armstrong some information though. He told him that they were Russian and probably Russian Mafia. They spend millions of dollars every time they come. They buy lots of tangibles too. Jewels, real estate, etc.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:51
Leland (First it Was Banks in Japan That Failed, Looks Like Russia is Next) ID#316193: - At one SBS branch in Moscow, customers said they were allowed only to withdraw money in rubles, even from accounts that were established in
dollars. Those who wanted dollars were told to fill out a form and
return in five days.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpne1f.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:50
MM (hmmm) ID#350179: - Anybody remember a phrase Butlerian Jihad?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:50
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - mozel -- Buying stocks with S.S. funds will be the absolute worst thing that they could do with that money. But I DO expect that to happen before the 'real' crashing of the markets. It'll give the markets the final impulse leg up.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:38
mozel (@Spud) ID#153102: - They could buy Canada with the money liquidated from stocks, couldn't they ? Or Sony. Or Argentina.
Funny how nobody got much excited about the idea of buying stock with so-called Social Security so-called Trust Fund funds. Just shows how deep in the psyche the acceptance of the paper as money has embedded itself.
Funny Money.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:38
MM (mots) ID#350179: - U.S. shuts Albania embassy on Islamic threat
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/international/0814/i_rt_0814_45.sml
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:37
James (Just caught an interview re: IMF & corruption in Russia that made me choke) ID#252150: - on my coffee. Insana interviewed Arnaud De Borchgrave who heads the Centre For Strategic & Intl Studies. He is vehemently opposed to sending anymore money into that black hole of corruption. He cited one blatant example that he personally found out by chance when he was visiting Antibes on the French Riviera, a beautiful spot that I had the pleasure of visiting many years ago. It seems that A high ranking bureaucrat, a former memeber of the communist party in the former gov't recently bought an estate there on 50 manicured acres from a French industrialist for $70,000,000. As U.S. taxpayers, you could probably lay claim to a handfull of olives each.
This is truly a sickening state of affairs, that the USG is no doubt fully aware of. While that average Russian lives in abject poverty, thanks to the IMF a small % of them are living like Princes
I only hope that when Lebed takes over Russia that they hunt these bastards down & assasinate them.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:34
OLD GOLD (Golden Cheesehead) ID#242325: - You have the right take on the markets. We could get a decent oversold bounce anytime, but prices should be much lower by fall. I'm looking for something like Dow 7000-7500 before we can mount a sustained rally. The big cap darlings must catch up to the rest of the market on the downside before this thing can turn around.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:34
crazytimes (Question...) ID#342376: - If the PPT keeps throwing money at futures or even buying stocks, is there any thoughts as to how quickly inflation or hyperinflation would show up?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:18
Shlomo (Spud Master) ID#288399: - The rich are definitely handing over a hot potatoe ( sorry Dan Quayle ) to Joe Sixpack ( people like me ) and they are taking their money and buying remote real estate and getting ready for Y2K. I am in the process of relocating to Litchfield County, Ct. to the town where Henry Kissinger has his bug out place. A town of less than 3,000 people. Almost the entire northwest corner of Conn. is comprised of one yuppified 'farm' after another, many reclaimed and re-established fairly recently w/stock market money. ( There was a smaller, similar blip like this before the '87 crash ) . If the 'elite' are all prepared in Jackson Hole, Telluride, and Kent, what do they care if y2K takes everyone else by surprise. Oh, the PPT will complete the buying circle by forcing Joe's Social Security money into the stock market by decree. Dorothy
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:13
Avalon (Retired Soldier; You may be right, I did not know who to attribute it) ID#254269: - to.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:11
SEQUIN (S&P) ID#25171: - S&P futures need to close below 1071 to make a new low and at the same time a new friday low on this down wave .
The friday low is important as a lot of trading systems overweight the significance of the weekly close. Then they place the new orders on monday at the open . Thus a close below 1071 would IMHO trigger some selling on monday unless the PPT strikes again.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:10
tolerant1 (Just got off the horn with Reify...he got in safe and sound and is quite comfortable) ID#373284: - in Cold Spring Harbor...and yes we are meeting in the lobby at 12:30 on Saturday. The web address with all the info on where we are going to meet...
http://www.swanview.com/index.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:09
RETIRED SOLDIER (Avalon) ID#347235: - Not sure but I think it was Benjamin Franklin who said that, he also said free advice is worth what you paid for it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:02
JP (A URL address---) ID#253153: - Does anyone know of a URL address where I can get real time quotes on the Dow, bonds, dollar, gold, etc ?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 14:02
Avalon (Quote of the day; Re Advice) ID#254269: -
You should never give it; a fool won't listen and a wise man
doesn't need it.
Author unknown.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:57
Avalon (Studio. Actually, temperature last week or so has been in low 90's or so.) ID#254269: - Those few degrees make a HUGE difference.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:57
Selby (Hopeful) ID#286230: - I misunderstood. I though you had a quote from a non Kitco site and wanted a second to confirm it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:50
STUDIO.R (@Avalon.........) ID#288369: - I bet your ready for Fall..ing temperatures! Still DRY, a little cooler ( mid 90's ) here. what a summer. yikes! we gotta' hang in der!!
I would luv to watch T#1 manhandle the dog defiler camdessus.....just imagine how you would feel if a commie gave your dog v.d.? tol will set this record straight.
have a good weekend, pal...studio headed to baton rouge sunday.....
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:45
MM (soso) ID#350179: - Yeltsin calls special session on economy
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/nws20.htm
Isn't it about time for that rally to start?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:45
James (Also, kudos to Donald) ID#252150: - For his yeoman work, reposting articles of great interest & importance to all.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:43
Gold Dancer (Spud Master) ID#377196: - ON where the money is going to go from the PPT. How about T-Bills?
The goverment gets back the money or at least some of it. The rest
into other mutual funds: Gold, Bond, etc.
You make a good point. The government could buy up some big
companies but lets' be realistic. I wonder where the pension money
for the Congress and President are invested. Now that is something
I could believe.
Hyper inflation hell? It is going to be hell, that's for sure.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:40
Avalon (Studio,man; NYC gig is this weekend. Tolly told me he was sending a limo to ) ID#254269: - go get Camdesus. Camdesus is keynote speaker or main course, I'm not sure which. Hey, it's cool down here ( only 98 )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:37
STUDIO.R (@Aragorn3........) ID#288369: - Where the hey is T#1? Did he go to KY? I thought the NYC gig was this weekend....huh?
Thanks muchly for the los.locos compliment...........had been playing guitar only five years when that was recorded...talk about intimidated! but we learn through trying, eh? Would love to take ANOTHER.shot@it....ten years under the belt now.
studio.segovia.wannabee
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:36
James (Mike Sheller@Although you post infrequently, the quality of your posts) ID#252150: - compensates for the quantity.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:35
Spud Master (@Gianni Dioro__A ) ID#28586: - The result of the PPT's intervention in the stock market:
* The Federal Government & its PPT proxies will end up owning the Dow 30 companies; it's a nice bit of theft: everyone ends up with a bunch of worthless US dollars, and the Federal Government ends up legal owning the tangible physical plants of the Dow companies.
It can not be lost on the rest of the brokers, brokerages, mutual fund managers that they can sell-out completely and the PPT will almost *ALWAYS* step in and buy. Every now and then the PPT lets them burn a little to teach them to play along, but in the end the PPT HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP STEPPING IN FOREVER and the brokerages know this.
The PPT is on a one-way trip to hyperinflation Hell.
The one trillion dollar question, in the time between now and hyperinflation is this:
What becomes of the, in effect, newly created PPT money taken out of the market?
1 ) Buy US Bonds?
2 ) Buy stuff?
3 ) Invest overseas?
4 ) Stuff under matress?
Somewhere, the numbers MUST NOT BE ADDING UP!
I assert that it *must* manifest itself as tangible inflation -- the money taken out isn't going back into the market. So, they are buying stuff with it.
Spud.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:32
oldgoldpanner (Food Prices(jdisney)) ID#197289: - 3 bucks for a loaf of bread in LA!
Well I guess that must include valet parking
on Rodeo Drive.
John, could you give the day and time of your
shopping list. I will give comparison prices
from Toronto.
TIA
Steve
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:29
Gold Dancer (Harmony) ID#377196: - Yesterday it traded 1000 shares. The day before: 1400. Today
it has not traded. For 70 million shares outstanding this is NOT
NORMAL. What is going on with Harmony? I bet Disney knows and he
is not saying.
John, oh John, where are you?
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:28
Flash Gordon__A (dow) ID#326279: -
Crash index moved up to -6 today.
I'm seeing bears poking their heads round every corner I turn. Come on sharefin, get your swing index to confirm!!!
cheers
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:25
James (RJ@False fingernails , ketchup & pliers. A grisly business. I hope that that image) ID#252150: - does'nt pop into my head when I'm dipping my french fries.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:24
Mooney* (@ Mike S.) ID#350194: - Mike - Do you still REALLY waste that much time on a daily commuting routine? A smart cookie like you? You may be Kitco's numero uno astrologer extraordinaire but it sounds like you need to consult with some of the more 'down to earth' guys around here who may be more expert at time planning. Hint: Change your appointment schedule to suit yourself and not so much the client. YOUR time is more important as YOU have more than one important client. Simplistic Steve. Over and Out.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:20
Gold Dancer (Gianni Dioro_A The light just went on!!!!!) ID#377196: - Now the Fed has another way of expanding the money supply!!!!!
Of course, that's it. The missing link about why real deflation will
never take place. They can create all the money they want. They no
longer are restriced to the banking system making loans, or adding
to reserves or open market operations. The fastest way to add to
the money supply in a way that guarantees the money goes into
circulation in the fastest way posssible is to create the PPT.
But I wonder just how much they can do before the currency
holders panic SO far they are getting away with it.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:19
MoReGoLd (@Gianni Dioro: 13:08 ) ID#348286: - Right on. By buying Gold, you are implicitly shorting all the currencies of the world, except maybe the Swiss ( for now ) .
You can bet your bottom dollar ( or ounce ) that Camdessus/Ruben and thier ilk don't like us one little bit........
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:19
SteveIS__A (TBonds and treasury auction) ID#287340: - We just finished a treasury refunding. The major Bond trading houses always get short before they buy the new bonds. As they sell their new positions they cover their shorts. There is almost always at the end of the refunding. This one seems rather mild so far.
Are they having trouble with their new bonds?
Got gold?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:18
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (USA VS RSA--) ID#394240: - 4 Times as much for food is misleading cause the chap in LA probably makes 8 times as much money as he would if he lived in the RSA! ( What does the chap do and how much is he paid in the US to do it? ) It's all relative! 'Cept for the exchange rate! Heh...heh...heh!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:16
Avalon (Gold Dancer; I think that tolly man has a supply of scythes and pitchforks) ID#254269: - that he could rent out.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:16
tricky (More rioting in indonesia) ID#304282: - http://www.jvim.com/cgi-bin/update.cgi
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:16
Mooney* (@APH) ID#350194: - APH - BTW - What ever happened to the $4.85-4.90 Silver? Is that still on the predictive pages in next few months or has your prognosis changed for good? ( At this juncture AAR. ) Please e-mail me this weekend with the answer if you get the chance as I may miss it on these crowded pages. moonstep@idirect.com Thanks.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:14
Mike Sheller (Singapore Sling, RJ) ID#347447: - Newcomer SingLion worries about an Elliott Wave count that would bring gold down into the hundred and something level. This, as was noted, would presage a deflation of terrible proportions. But a deflation against what?
The crucible here is the 285 level for bullion. Where we are at currently. This rough band between 275-290 is the layer pass not. If we go decisively below current levels, the deflationists will likely win. But in any case, tho we goldbugs be pinned to the board for a while, the remedy will be inflation, as always.
RJ - I'm halfway thru. My absence can be explained by the fact that it takes a while to get to the end of my tunnel, and back, so it really eats into my day. Perhaps thru wireless internet I can post from beneath the East River?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:13
Avalon (Hong Kong PPT................We have a local stockbroker guy here in town who) ID#254269: - is always on our local radio and TV as a market guru, and this morning he was talking about HK goverment buying stocks and said it would be similar to Alan Greenspan and Bob Rubin buying ATT and IBM and he ( local analyst ) could never imagine that happening here .
Maybe they're just trying to calm the masses before the panic starts ?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:11
HopeFull (look at the top of the page) ID#402148: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:09
Selby (HopeFull ) ID#286230: - --Please post the URL
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:08
Gold Dancer (Clinton/Starr circus/Issue your own money) ID#377196: - It cost the American taxpayer $40 to $50 milion for Starr to issue
a report on the sex life of a President? And the people who paid for this
can't read the report?
This is, to say the least, a monsterous event. This Country needs
to hurt and hurt badly if anything is ever going to change. The
people are going to have to wake up and fast. They need to
Well, they need to? Throw the bumbs out? What will that do?
There will just be another set of bumbs let in. It will create the
confusion for the powers that run things from the sidelines to take
even more control.
So what to do? I say that politics is not the answere. Economics
is the path to over turning what is happening. I say destroy the
banking system by demanding your money back.If you put your money
into a money market they just buy the paper of the banks. So a credit
union is the only answer? Plus gold. Plus cold hard cash. T-bills?
I guess If you have A LOT of money you might have to do that. Gold stocks
and commodities are good. Just bankrupt the banks.
Maybe I should not say this but I am really beginning to understand
just how the French Revolution came about. Sometimes that is the
only way. But it is ugly. Although seeing some of these people lose
their heads might be fun. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Of course I am not preaching
revolution, just getting even. But economics IS the better way. Hit them where it hurts.
Does anyone know that the government actually allows you to issue
your own money and exchange it with out interest charges? I read about
this somewhere, and last year when I was on Orcas Island, WA. I ran
into someone who said that they has just issued their own money on the island to try and keep the money on the island and prosper.
Any one know about this type of thing
Detach from the banking system. That is the answer. PERIOD!!!!!!!!
Sorry this was so long.
Thanks, GD
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:08
Gianni Dioro__A (Is This What it Has All Come Down to?) ID#384350: - Yesterday, the Hong Kong government bought stocks and futures for the first time to fend off an escalating attack on the city's currency. The unprecedented step caused the biggest rally in six months. Two government funds made the purchases to hurt hedge funds which had sold a ``substantial'' amount of Hong Kong dollars and stocks while trying to break the currency's peg to its U.S. counterpart, said Financial Secretary Donald Tsang.
We should ask ourselves if the ruling elite should be allowed to continue to print ( counterfeit ) money with which it can buy up other people's property ( stocks, land, buildings ) . When people sell shares at overvalued prices, is it the PPT that is buying them with printed money? And if enough people sell, will the Govt and their cronies end up with all the wealth ( Socialist State ) . Let's see, recently many people have sold shares representing tangible wealth for intrinsically worthless paper. Should they feel vulnerable? Did they just get screwed? Is this the only way the govt can stop the markets from falling, i.e. to print paper and buy up other people's property?
Or even worse, should a private banking cartel be allowed to counterfeit money and buy your house, company, or property? And isn't that what the Fed is able to do? I believe Greenspan or some Fed document said something like the following: In certain circumstances, if the economy needs liquidity, the Fed can buy something, USUALLY a T-Bill.
Maybe that special Something might just be your house, business, or stocks. In sum, your property may have just been bought ( stolen ) by someone who counterfeits money for a living, or makes use of it.
This line of thinking has led me towards precious metals as a store of value ( at least in part ) , as they represent true money.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:05
John Disney__A (Something's gotta Give) ID#24135: - To All
A very nice chap named Vince sent me an email
responding to the list of grocery prices I had posted
a couple of weeks back.
It seems that in LA he pays about 4 times as much
for food as I do ( about 3 times as much for IMPORTED
Olive Oil ) . I forget exactly but he pays 3 bucks for
a loaf of bread ( is that possible ) .. I get 7 loaves
of bread for that ..
Point is the US is supposed to be a low inflation
economy and RSA is supposed to be a High inflation
economy .. Funny isnt it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 13:00
chas (Sharefin your 12:17) ID#147201: - And what did you say
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:54
HopeFull (sorry...NON-KITCO as in indepenant from KITCO) ID#402148: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:53
HopeFull (can i get a none KTIOC confirm quote showing gold and silver have done a key reveral to upside as ) ID#402148: - of a few mionutes ago?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:52
Mooney* (@ Grizz and Arden) ID#350194: - Went out in the canoe last weekend. Caught a beauty 15.5 Bass. Ate it with my 7 year old daughter who was with me in the canoe in the middle of nowhere when we landed it. She also had some 'rod-benders' that got away, but she didn't drop her rod. I guess my family is getting closer to being prepared for this 'bear' that Arden encountered. BTW, Arden, if I don't talk to you via e-mail in next few days, be sure to have a 'Golden' Anniversary, and many more!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:52
Gollum (@Aragorn III ) ID#35571: - Five weeks to go.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:51
lakshmi__A (US long bonds - most analysts are saying buy them) ID#26350: - Isn't it that the long bond is cheaply priced compared to the worldwide price of bonds? The conventional thinking that I'm hearing is that the long bond rate in the US is so much higher than the world's rate, that the equalization is predictably forthcoming, lifting the buying/selling price of the US bonds. ( Of course, let's say I lived in Japan or Korea and the dollar began to devalue--after my homeland currency reached bottom--that doesn't sound to me like any great bonus points. ) Hong Kong must really be feeling a squeeze. Gold will still be the great equalizer in the long run--it hasn't dropped so very much in price in foreign currencies--just the dollar is inflated. It isn't even the stock market that is a bubble as much as the dollar ( vs the world gold price ) . You can legislate against value, but the spontaneous worth of gold always is self-perpetuating as real money.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:48
TYoung (PS...I'd take the $15 jump to $300...fear ought to be there but is not...YET) ID#317193: - Tom
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:43
TYoung (Gold...Hmmmmm?) ID#317193: - Ever so slowly some are moving to the exits from the stock market in the US. Out of stocks and into bonds and cash? Where next? Not to gold until fear shows it's head. When the US$ starts to come home and it starts to sink.
Gold may meander to $300 but no bull here until fear.
Tom
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:37
vronsky (WHEN HONG KONG GOVERNEMENT OWNS ALL?) ID#426220: -
The ultimate ramifications of the HONG KONG GOVERNEMENT's action is pathetically funny.
Hong Kong Buys Stocks, Futures in Unprecedented Step to Bolster Currency The Hong Kong government bought stocks and futures for the first time to fend off an escalating attack on the city's currency, the last in Asia still pegged to the dollar.
-- which beggs the questions:
-----Who will buy HK shares when the hapless govt owns ALL?
-----In a DISTORTED WAY, is the developing situation in HK that unlike
what happened in the SOVIET UNION? Only difference is that
the SOVIET govt forcibly took control of all companies, whereas
the HK govt is buying up the shares.
Course, the HK govt will have no difficulty in buying up all the shares
listed on the Hang Seng because it just prints up the money needed...
no sweat ( :- ) )
So what does that do to the underlying value of their Chinese money?
... sounds crazy, eh?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:30
Aragorn III (Studio.R ....and Tolerant.One) ID#212323: - The House of Aragorn is a wall of sound...Kottke and Los Locos vying for time in the CD player. Actually, a pitched battle was averted owing in large part to my forethought in having purchased a 5-cd carousel player in days past. Equal time for all my men! And fresh horses, too!
Nice little project you got there, Studio! ...a G&P to ya!
Thanks. And thanks again!
Aragorn III
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:17
sharefin (oleman . .) ID#284255: - Son's father in law got a cash buyout from the phone co at end of '94. Gave $250k to Merrill broker first business day of '95. Account now worth just under $600k. Wife's brother died in late 95. Widow gave 400k of the ins $$ to Paine Webber broker. Now worth almost a cool big one. This is the first dip since '95 that has not caused ONE BIT of concern to either of them. During every dip of 5% or more from 7/96 to 4/98, they both called me several times, asking if they should take some of it off the table. This time, I had to call THEM! They were surprised that I was concerned. The sis-in-law said, I've FINALLY learned how it works. I just wish I had MORE to put in. It may be that fokes who dont know price/earnings from Paul Bunyan will continue to become richer and richer, while blissfully unconcerned and completely confident that they will always make at least 25% per year. If that's true, then it really IS different this time..............
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hong Kong Buys Stocks, Futures in Unprecedented Step to Bolster Currency The Hong Kong government bought stocks and futures for the first time to fend off an escalating attack on the city's currency, the last in Asia still pegged to the dollar.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:17
vronsky (ECHOES OF MARCH 1993 - XAU) ID#426220: -
I seem to recall approximately the same technical picture in March 1993 - just before the gold bull in precious metals shares began:
http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&stochastics=y&momentum=y&symbol=%24XAU.X
who knows...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:15
Aragorn III (JP...I'm not sure that I can agree with your 11:45 conclusions) ID#212323: - They are indeed logical, but you are building upon the assumption that the bond buyers know what they are doing and why. I tend to think otherwise.
Warren Buffet know what he is doing and why, and he SOLD.
I believe the bond prices are rising because there are a lot of ma and pa's out there with money locked into retirement programs with limited options for investments...mutual funds that invest in stocks, or bonds, or money markets. The uninformed masses see that bonds pay higher interest than money markets, and therefore in an attempt at flight to safety out of stocks they shift their retirement accounts into bond funds...and the bond fund managers have no choice but to keep buying bonds with this money...even at these record high prices.
Not a prediction of things to come, just a result of the ongoing education process for the amateur investor. Expensive tuition at this college of hard knocks!
Possible?
Indeedy O
Yes
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:11
Spud Master (The IMF, the Federal Reserve, the World bank, and all other Central banks...) ID#28586: - People, let us not deceive ourselves about what is going on:
There is no longer anywhere on the planet honest money, that is money based on a fixed, unmutal medium, such as gold.
Without that barbaric relic, there can be no such thing as an honest accounting. Period.
Everyone of the institutions above can and do make-up ANY amount of money they desire and are currently POURING it into the world's economy.
This is PURE INFLATION.
Either they are managing to hide the inflation via convincing the masses to invest in the stock market ... or they have failed.
Currently, the US has succeeded in hidding it's inflation in the grotesque run-up in the stock market.
Russia, Argentina, Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia have failed in their inflation hiding, i.e. their people either woke up or got fried alive -- either way their currencies, not worth anything, are now treated as being NOT WORTH ANYTHING.
The US Dollar is no different -- we simply have a press incomplicity with our government to keep the deception & scam going longer.
The US Dollar too will experience the same hyperinflation.
Spud
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:10
2BR02B? () ID#266105: -
Sequin-- you're referring to the variance between
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles [GAAP] adhered
to and enforced in the private sector and the Creatively
Reprehensible Accounting Practices [CRAP] utilized by
government the world over.
Outta here...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 12:03
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Bonds up, dollar up, gold down a little but currently holding its own. Interesting! Perhaps a smallish flight to 'safety' in the offing? We'll see.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:56
SEQUIN (@ 2BRO2B?) ID#25171: - If such organizations as the IMF or the World bank had to comply with private sector accounting practices , they would have to provision their loans to the extent that write- offs would run the 100s of $ blns
As we all know , the very reason why western governments are so generous with this money is that eventually it will be worth its weight in scrap paper. That is a good reason to be generous to avert THE crisis as long as possible , as they know the people will come to get them once their lifetime saving are wiped out . ( except a few old fashioned gold afficionados )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:55
RETIRED SOLDIER (RJ) ID#347235: - I know this is bad...... would the opposite be a PENIS/testicilectomy?
or for those of less technical minded cutcherdickanballsofectomy.
HAR HAR
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:54
sharefin ( Can the U.S. Government Confiscate Your Gold Coins?) ID#284255: - http://135.145.5.70/confisca.htm
From
http://135.145.5.70/news.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:49
2BR02B? () ID#266105: -
Sequin-- one thing nice about Congressional IMF funding
to aid agricultural, manufacturing exporters etc is that it
is off-budget spending, not adding to the deficit figures
( or reducing the mirage surplus. ) That's because IMF funding
is technically classified as a loan to eventually be repaid.
I think one would quickly find out if those funds are loans
or expenditures by the response to a call for repayment.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:48
SEQUIN (Fly to quality) ID#25171: - The US $ hit a new high this week of 1.80 DM.
The FOREX markets are obviously anticipating new rounds of capital flights from ASIA and Eastern Europe.
The situation is quickly getting out of hand and the German D-MARK is hit by the Russian situation.
Expect some kind of package anytime between this WE and Clinton's visit in RUSSIA.
The volatility in FOREX and STOCKS derivative is on a 2 month high.
This shows that there is a lot of fear right now.
How long before somebody remembers GOLD as an hedge against toatl collapse of the financial system ?
The brainwashed crowd of investors is hopeless. Good for us , we can buy more!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:45
JP (Have you noticed ?--- The long bond is at a new high today with a yield of 5.54 % ) ID#253153: - The bond market is saying the following : We are about to sink into a very severe recession. Despite the huge demand for money, interest rates in the US are declining forecasting an accelerating deflation world wide. Since bonds always leads stocks in anticipating events ahead, the bond market is forecasting the recession to start in the fourth quarter of 1998.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:38
sharefin (How far from the truth?) ID#284255: - http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=380918220&CONTEXT=903108296.81854540&hitnum=0
http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=380918236&CONTEXT=903108296.81854540&hitnum=1
http://x6.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=380918334&CONTEXT=903108296.81854540&hitnum=2
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:38
2BR02B? () ID#266105: -
Sequin-- CNBC just confirmed that the Hong Kong Monetary
authority injected funds into the Hang Seng to trigger a short
covering rally. I'm not sure that sort of action comes under
the rubric of proper currency board operation.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:38
SEQUIN (test) ID#25171: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:17
sharefin (Spud Master) ID#284255: - That site requires registration.
Could you please post the article.
~~~~
Seems like the sellers are still there.
Not quite bullish confidence?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:03
SEQUIN (So is it a false relief ? Isay yes) ID#25171: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:03
SEQUIN (MISLEADING RELIEF?) ID#25171: - HONG- KONG up 8.5% , Russia about the same , brady bonds up 10% yesterday ( notably Brazilian C bonds ) , European and US stocks up !
Why would we see such relief in the markets when no notable improvement has been announced ?
Russia is still on the verge of a financial collapse . Same for the Japanese banking system , European banks ( mostly German and FRENCH have about 35 bln $ exposure to Russia ) are seating on a situation comparable to the early 80's south american debacle .
What happened ?
1 ) 2 hong-kong government pension funds bought all stoks composing the local index triggering a short covering for local speculators . They also bought stock index futures for the first time ever
2 ) China once more denied any likelyhood of a devaluation. ( however HK $ forward rates are still as high as yesterday despite a momentary easing this morning
3 ) Brazilian speculators short squeezed US and European banks which had heavily sold south american debt to cover their eastern european and asian exposure.
4 ) and this is what triggered the global relief and is a KITCO exclusive : a consortium of European banks went yesterday to MOSCOW to ask the RUSSIAN ministry of finance to substitute hitself to russian banks as counterpart to REPO contracts.
In exchange they pledged an undisclosed amount of loans probably running into $ billions ( which I think will be lost eventually ) which prevents them from liquidating the billions of $ of debt collateralized and would have the world financial system collapse in days.
Obviously , they prefer to loose twice as much later than collectively about 12 bln $ now .
Why ? Because they hope to be bailed out by the IMF , the world bank , the german , french and US governments which won't allow these banks to collapse and will spend good taxpayer money in this dry well.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:02
strat (Avalon) ID#93241: - It doesn't sound very healthy...but we knew that. I'll look up the article. Thanks.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 11:02
Leland (Kosares Deserves an A+ For His Gold Report Today) ID#31876: -
http://www.usagold.com/Daily_Quotes.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:50
Avalon (strat ; Japan is # 48. The rating system is based upon Moody's) ID#254269: - grading the big banks in various countries and calculating a composite national bank financial strength rating . The ratings are A, B+, B, C+, C , D+, D, E+ and E. No country got higher than a B.
Other top rankings;
4. Spain
5. Belgium
6. Canada
7. Singapore
8. Luxembourg
9. United Kingdom
10. United States
Very useful chart if someone can post electronically.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:49
Spud Master (Y2K problem? We ain't got no stinkin Y2K problem....) ID#28586: - probably the highest priority we have right now CBO Cohen speaking of DOD efforts to deal with Y2K software problems...
http://www.defensedaily.com/VIP/dd/current.htm#A1
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:36
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Charlie -- But I do agree that there is CERTAINLY a BIG bag of stuff they could otherwise go after him with. Unfortunately, I do not believe the 'justice' department would be toooo happy in agreeing with doing so.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:32
strat (Avalon) ID#93241: - Where's Japan & the Far East?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:31
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Charlie -- A__holes in the seats of power are UNACCEPTABLE!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:28
Avalon (World Bank Ratings by Moody's' Today's WSJ has a chart showing the) ID#254269: - ratings of world banks by country of origin ( Page A13 ) . Top of the list is 1. Netherlands, 2. Liechenstein, 3. Switzerland. The US came in # 10.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:26
Spud Master (@CharlieS & will stain our history...) ID#28586: - uh, Charlie, our history, though better by far than most nations, is already quite stained ... care to give back the land your and my ancestors took from the native American indians?
Why don't we start a reparations effort like the Swiss, eh? Let's see, right off the bat, let's give back ALL of New England to the surviving Mohawk, Iroquoi, Algonquins indians ...
and most of the states of Georgia and South Carolina to the surviving Cherokees..
( cough ) . Enough, you say?
Fine, then LET'S HAVE ONE HELL OF A LONG DRAWN-OUT IMPEACHMENT OF THE LYING SOBS AND CLEAN OUT THAT FILTHY CHARRNEL HOUSE CALLED WASHINGTON DC.
Spud: give no quarter!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:20
strat (Check this one out...) ID#93241: - ...if the Lewinsky thing bothers you, just wait.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-08/14/044r-081498-idx.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:17
vronsky (SECURITIES ANALYSIS 501 by Wayne Crimi) ID#426220: -
Wall Street analyst Wayne Crimi shares his considered opinion with us
about the stocks. He presents his Market View for August.
He poignantly points out Greed and fear are powerful emotions. The rosy
shaded glasses of today's investors won't be easy to shake off. On the plus side, there are some secondary issues that are starting to look a little more attractive. The broader market has taken a significant beating compared to the major indices.
As any scholarly person he teaches as he forecasts. Crimi generously shows us the meaning of What is Value Investing? It is a valuable short-course for us all. His method emulates the bible of ALL ANALYSTS, SECURITY ANALYSIS by Graham and Dodd - originally written in 1934.
In any highly-accredited university, his teaching would be a class termed
Securities Analysis 501.
Crimi's insightful Securities Analysis lecture at following URL - it will be necessary to delete the extra letters en in the word golden before pasting the URL to your Internet locator:
http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/crimi081398.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:11
sharefin (Speed) ID#284255: - It's not a big defense in a world crisis, he said. But gold is gold.
--
What crisis? What does he know?
Such beautiful words.
So aptly put. So simple and clear.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This rally stinks!!!
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/US_charts.htm
So many global indices at pivot points.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Global_charts.htm
So many indices in lockstep.
Put them in categories.
Who is playing whom?
This is a concerted effort.
The last rally?
But I doubt it will last long.
Time and price will be volatile.
The spring winds tighter.
Economies in tatters.
Currencies adrift.
Confidence abating.
A turning of the tide is upon us.
The bull sentiment has gone.
This rally will be sold - soon.
The bear is here.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 10:04
CharlieS__A (On the Clinton thing) ID#298380: - If there is an ounce of decency left in Washington, here is what ( INMHO ) should go down.
Starr should not even mention the sordid Lewinski affair and go after
Clinton on the more serious charges. I feel that exposing the nation,
and especially our children to a long drawn out impeachment process that
will stain our history forever with this disgusting incident, is totally
unacceptable.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:42
Shlomo (PPT/Clinton's testimony) ID#288399: - Looks like the PPT is in early to try to set the tone -- in fact, they probably coordinated with the CB in Hong Kong to start real early and maybe be a little less conspicuous. Yeah, HK up over 8% on its own bounce-back. Anyway, the Chief Prevaricator will come clean one way or another on Monday.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:27
RJ (..... James .....) ID#411259: - @ RJ@Ethel Merman & Liberace Surely to God that combo would be against the Geneva Convention.
James -
The above would only be preliminary Psyop
The coupe de grace would be found in
Bananarama’a first and only album
Played over and over and over again
If that did not bring them to their knees
I would personally belt out some blues
In my own rather off tune way
An begin to sing in a voice
Which is as horrid as can be
But is still the best I can do.
This would work.
One does not have to be born to this kind of callous treatment of fellow humans, it can be learned. I recall an in interrogation school, I sat a prisoner down at the table on which were placed a few items:
A copy of the Geneva Convention - torn in half.
A pair of pliers
A couple Lee Press-On Nails
A couple dabs of ketchup
I explained that if was not the question
But only the when was in doubt
But I tend to like to finish work early
An will book no overtime
I failed that test - the instructors believed a psychological approach would have been more effective than a threat of violence. I argued that loss of fingernails could be psychologically damaging, but they told me the US does not sanction that type of thing. I reluctantly changed my tactics and grilled the prisoner for hours and then turned in my report. We learned the next morning that US planes had swept in and destroyed my prisoners entire unit. Tis a tricky thing to get a man to flush all that he holds dear and betray, self, family, country, and comrades, but somebody’s got to do it.
I think I liked Psyop better, bad music or no.
Yes
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:20
sam__A (@aurator re Pigs (your 8:04(?))) ID#284275: -
Well, it turns out I am not in the field tommorrow so will go into the market and get more specifics ( weights, grades and prices. ) Will get these to you by demain soir. You can then choose and we can go from there.
Am not in room right now ( at bar instead ) so phone won't work ( at least for tonight. ) Let me get the details for you ( as per above ) and then we can work out the rest. It shouldn't be a problem ( notwithstanding my last note. )
I'll post what I know tommorrow eve and we can either arrange a call ( same number ) or do it via posts, etc.
cheers, and no problem. Hey - what's an international forum for?
sam__a ( notsam! )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:08
Allen(USA) (SingLion, The Singing Lion from Singapore) ID#246224: - Welcome to Kitco. We are looking for a few more Kitco contributors from your part of the world. We have Jin from Indonesia. I can't say who else except a the Aussies and Kiwis are abundant as rabbits and sheep respectively. Do you have any friends in other countries in SE Asian who are on the 'Net? If so ask them to drop in with news and views, OK? Thanks!
It seems the CB's are desperately trying to hold gold down. It is a threat to their control of the perception of the world financial situation. Japan is in a bad way. Your thoughts are echoed here by many.
You hold gold for the long term. What do you think China/Hong Kong will do next? Devalue? How? What do people in Singapore think of all this?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:04
STUDIO.R (@I feel not so good.....) ID#288369: - ...like an old whore in a freezin' rain. yea, sing those blues to me baby....let me hear that good part now. oh yes...uh huh.....
Gagazelli....had some kinda' thang go off in her face...she's outta' whack....man. stray away from a cock-eyed bitch....i tell ya now. iknow.
we now must enter the thermalregion of macroflux. slow down and smell the roses burn.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:03
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Oh yah, and ALL the gloomy recession speak being bandied about on the tube and all. FADE THE BS!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 09:02
RJ (..... I don't tell jokes but .....) ID#411259: -
In direct response to sharefin’s Mycoxifallin ( which made me giggle with glee ) , this is a bit off color,
Removal of tonsils is a tonsillectomy, yes?
Sterilization of a women is a hysterectomy, indeedy?
So what do they call a sex change operation from woman to man?
Addadictomy
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:55
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265: - Mike Sheller -- I too think another leg to the paper bull is a much greater than a 50-50 possibility. Especially since someone posted that Merrill-Lynch advertised that they had bought millions of put warrants on the S&P. Could take the Dow over 10,000. This one could go up mighty fast!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:53
FOX-MAN__A (Some bond traders think faster growth could lead to higher prices...) ID#288186: - Chicago-Aug. 14-FWN--HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED PRODUCER Price Index ( PPI ) and business
inventories data have pushed bond futures slightly lower and to new session lows here in Chicago.
The PPI rose 0.2%, more than the unchanged figure expected by an FWN survey of economists.
Business inventories were up 0.1%, also above the expected figure of down 0.1%.
Floor sources said that the small market move had been the result of the data, which indicates the
economy is still growing at a faster pace than that desired by bond traders. Faster growth puts
pressure on prices, which has a bearish effect on bond markets, and so we fell a little bit, one floor
source said.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:49
Mooney* (Wag the Dog) ID#350194: - Morning All! As old-timers around here will remember I don't usually like to encourage the endless stream of American political discussion that we often see here. ( Take no offense Carl and others - Your efforts are still appreciated ) Its just that for the most part it is a complete waste of everyone's time and space. Having said that I would also like to point out to everyone that all this recent Clinton chatter is much like we are stuck in a revolving door. It goes around and around, over the same old ground, never changing and getting us not one further step ahead. To get some of this endless nonsense out of your system I recommend doing what I did last night. Go out and rent the movie 'Wag the Dog' starring Robert De Niro and Dustin Hoffman. It says it all, better than all the chit chat we wade through here every day and is not merely political satire but almost a documentary about how the master spin doctors operate.
Speaking of chit-chat: sam_A - I thought you were one of those who were totally committed to the concept of staying strickly on topic around here ( As Rhody's my witness! ) and now I see you are giving traffic reports from Korea! ;- ) If this keeps up Sheller will be giving morning reports from the Brooklyn bridge instead of from beyond this mortal sphere! Aurator, you pig islander you, you should open that silk purse and check your incoming!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:49
singlion (My thanks to all for lurking) ID#284336: - I am from Singapore have learnt a lot from kitco. To the pro and con of this forum, PL accepts my thanks! Personally I own 10kg of physical gold and the rest in cash. Normally when the POG drops, I take it as US$ is strong in gold. Am I wrong? I keep US$ during such times. The Sing has been hovering at about S$16/gm inclusive of GST range: US$330~280/0z Most of my gold are bought at about S$16/gm. Needless to say I lost money in S$ term; loss of interest. I intent to carry my cross until the very end like to bear my soul to you all goldbugs. HERE goes
Japan's dilemma:
1. ) If she stimulates like what the IMF wants, they say she is burying her head in the sand.
2. ) If she starts to get serious about clearing her huge problems, she will cause a sever recession.
Her Asian neighbor's conditions will get worse.
3. ) Her only option left is to buy gold. With this, she will cause the house of cards of the US to unravel and at the same times recapitalising her economy. There is no other way. Whether we like it or not the overvaluation of the US assets will implode soon. She will try to preserve and enhance the yen asset value but of cos. this is easier said than done because the moment the markets know what she is up to, gold begins to rise.
In conclusion, living with $ system is a pain in the neck. Can we in our right mind, blame George SOROS? According to Elliot principal the ultimate bottom for gold is the 103~197 US$ range. If this come to past, I think this deflation that is going round now will be terrible! We goldbugs must remember that everything is relative. Russia is not unlike Indonesia and Euro may not succeed what with Y2K next year. This leaves the US$ as the only contender and sure enough she will be the last to fall. Physical gold is in short supply as a proportion of the derivatives in gold deals. What do you think will happen? Thanks YOU! Email: lawseow@pacific.net.sg
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:48
RJ (..... Sheller the until recently absent .....) ID#411259: -
Mikey!
Hi, very good to see you about
Things are well with you, indeedy?
Have you been working on that tunnel
From the Island which is Long
To underneath the New York Fed?
I still think we could take it
Tis a ripe berry ready for picking
We will liberate the gold therein
And watch these markets together, yes?
Righty O
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:48
Mtn Bear (SE) (Open Letter to Elaine G. and other perma-bulls:) ID#347267: - Also perhaps a help to those trying to convince family members to be a little more conservative with investments. Older family members should be able to remember some of the events of 1929-1934.
This is a partial repeat of a previous post.
-----As a companion to all of the above, ( a letter to my family ) I am including quotes from a chapter in a book by Benjamin Graham written in 1934; the words were written after the '29 crash but, in my opinion, have direct application to the current stock market. I call myself TFW - The Family Worrier
REMEMBER THAT GRAHAM WAS PERFORMING A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF
THE REASONS FOR THE 1929 STOCK MARKET CRASH, AFTER IT OCCURRED.
Benjamin Graham in the 1934 edition of his classic investment treatise, Security Analysis, devoted a whole section of the book to the theory of New-Era of Investing. What follows are excerpts from that chapter.
Investment in common stocks was formerly based upon the threefold concept of: ( 1 ) a suitable and established divided return; ( 2 ) a stable and adequate earnings record; and ( 3 ) a satisfactory backing of tangible assets.
Two of the three elements stated above lost nearly all of their significance, and the third, the earnings record, took on an entirely novel complexion ( in the months leading up to the '29 crash ) . The new theory or principle may be summed up in the sentence: The value of a common stock depends entirely upon what it will earn in the future. From this dictum the following corollaries were drawn: 1. That the dividend rate should have slight bearing upon the value.2. That since no
relationship apparently existed between assets and earning power, the asset value was entirely devoid of importance.3. That past earnings were significant only to the extent that they indicated what changes in the earnings were likely to take place in the future. Why did the investing public turn its attention from dividends, from asset values, and from earnings, to transfer it almost exclusively to the earnings trend, i.e., to the changes in earnings expected in the future? The answer
was, first, that the records of the past were proving an undependable guide to investment; and secondly, that the rewards offered by the future had become irresistibly alluring. The new-era concepts had their root first of all in the obsolescence of the old-established standards. During the last generation, the tempo of economic change has been speeded up to such a degree that the fact of being long established has ceased to be, as it once was a warranty of stability. A new conception was given central importance--that of trend of earnings. The past
was important only in so far as it showed the direction in which the future could be expected to move.
( The notion that the desirability of a common stock was entirely independent of its price seems incredibly absurd. Benjamin Graham )
If an attempt were to be made to give a mathematical expression to the
underlying idea of valuation, it might be said that it was based on the derivative of the earnings, stated in terms of time.
Along with this idea as to what constituted the basis for common-stock selection, there emerged a companion theory that common stocks represented the most profitable and therefore the most desirable media for long-term investment. This gospel was based upon a certain amount of research, showing that diversified lists of common stocks had regularly increased in value over stated intervals of time for many years past. The combination of these two ideas supplied the investment theory upon which the 1927-1929 stock market
proceeded. The theory ran as follows:
1. 'The value of a common stock depends on what it can earn in the future.
2. 'Good common stocks will prove sound and profitable investments.
3. 'Good common stocks are those which have shown a rising trend of earnings.'
The statements sound innocent and plausible. Yet they concealed two theoretical weaknesses which could and did result in untold mischief.
The first of these defects was that they abolished the fundamental distinctions between investment and speculation. The second was that they ignored the price of a stock in determining whether it was a desirable purchase. A moment's thought will show that new-era investment, as practiced by the representative investment trusts, was almost identical with speculation as popularly defined in pre-boom days It would not be inaccurate to state that new-era investment was simply old-style speculation confined to common stocks with a satisfactory trend of earnings.. The notion that the desirability of a
common stock was entirely independent of its price seems incredibly absurd. Yet the new-era theory led directly to this thesis. The impressive new concept underlying the GREATEST STOCK-MARKET BOOM IN HISTORY appears to be no more than a thinly disguised version of the old CYNICAL epigram: 'Investment is successful speculation.'
Pre-boom standard, the conclusion to be drawn was not that the stock was now too high but merely that the standard of value had been raised. Instead of judging the market price by established standards of value, the new-era based its standards of value upon the market price. Hence all upper limits disappeared, not only upon the price at which a stock could sell, but even upon the price it deserved to sell. This fantastic reasoning actually led to the purchase for investment at $100 per share of common stocks earning $2.50 per share. The identical reasoning would support the purchase of these same shares at $200, at
$1000, or at any conceivable price. An alluring corollary of this principle was that making money in the stock market was now the easiest thing in the world. It was only necessary to buy good stocks, regardless of price, and then to let nature take her upward course An ironical sidelight is thrown on this 1928-1929 theory by the practice of the INVESTMENT TRUSTS.
TFW: THESE WERE THE EARLY EQUIVALENT OF OUR MUTUAL FUNDS
These were formed for the purpose of giving the untrained public the benefit of expert administration of its funds But most paradoxical was the early abandonment of research and analysis in guiding investment-trust policies. However, since these financial institutions owed their existence to the new-era philosophy, it was natural and perhaps only just that they should adhere closely to it. Under its cannons, investment had now become so beautifully simple that research was unnecessary and statistical data a mere encumbrance. The investment process consisted merely of finding prominent companies with a rising
trend of earnings, and then buying their shares regardless of the price. Hence the sound policy was to buy only what every one else was buying--a select list of highly popular and exceedingly expensive issues, appropriately known as the blue chips. The original idea of searching for the undervalued and neglected issues dropped completely out of sight. Investment trusts actually boasted that their portfolios consisted exclusively of the active and standards ( i.e., the most popular and highest price ) common stocks.
TFW: THESE ARE NOW OUR INDEX FUNDS
The man in the street, having been urged to entrust his funds to the superior skill of investment experts--for substantial compensation--was soon reassuringly told that the trusts would be careful to buy nothing except what the man in the street was buying. IRRATIONALITY could go no further.
The self-deception of the mass speculator must, however, have its elements of justification. This is usually some generalized statement, sound enough within its proper field, but twisted to fit the speculative mania. In real-estate booms, the reasoning is usually based upon the inherent permanence and growth of land values. It is amazing and alarming to see that the investment techniques used then and now are identical, driven by the great investment oxymoron momentum investing. In the new-era bull market ( of 1927-1929 ) , the rational basis was the record of long-term improvement showed by diversified
common stock holdings
Hence in using the past performances of common stocks as the reason for paying prices 20 to 40 times their earnings,
( TFW: MANY MODERN STOCKS NOW HAVE P/E's OF 100+ )
the new-era exponents were starting with a sound premise and twisting it into a woefully unsound conclusion Considering the 1927-1929 period, we observe that since the trend-of-earnings theory was, at bottom, only a pretext to excuse rank speculation under the guise of investment, the profit-mad public was quite willing to accept the flimsiest evidence of the existence of a favorable trend. Rising earnings for a period of five, or four, or even three years only, were regarded as an insurance of uninterrupted future growth and a warrant for projecting the curve
of profits indefinitely upward The prevalent heedlessness on this score was most evident in connection with the numerous common-stock flotation's during this period. The craze for a showing of rising profits resulted in the promotion of many industrial enterprises which had been favored by temporary good fortune and re just approaching, or had actually reached, the peak of their prosperity.
Graham concluded the chapter on the new-era theory as follows:
This illustrates one of the paradoxes of financial history, viz., that at the very period when the increasing instability of individual companies had made the purchase of common stocks far more precarious than before, the gospel of common stocks as safe and satisfactory investments was preached to and avidly accepted by the American public.
END QUOTES
If just a few outdated phrases were changed, the above would pass for a completely accurate synopsis of investment practice in 1997-1998. It is amazing and ( should be ) frightening to see that the investment techniques used then and now are IDENTICAL!!!
I have said my piece; if all this seems opinionated and intrusive, I'm sorry, I do not wish to be. I just feel as if I owe you all something. And if you are already in money market funds, good for you; but if not, remember, in spite of what everyone is led to believe:
MARKETS DO NOT KEEP GOING UP FOREVER.
TFW ( The Family Worrier )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:40
Mike Sheller (Donald, and all shareholders of record) ID#347447: - I think you ( also the generic you at Kitco ) give too much importance to external affairs and their impact on the stock market. I have been saying all along that Russia is a basket case that will take 2 generations to reform. With all apologies to dear brother Oris. I have russky blood in some of my viens, so I can say this. This is to be expected. It will have NO impact on America save bleeding the taxpayers another 12 or 20 billion. Chump change!
Yes, there are nefarious economic forces afoot in the world, and some of this will come home to roost, but right now there is no sign that the force that historically dampens stocks - rising rates - is a problem. Will it be one in future? SURE. But not now. This market is either going to trace a major topping pattern and then become a classic bear, or has ONE MORE wave up left in it. Besides, I am long the kinds of stocks nobody has heard of because they are obscure astrological plays. Here is one for you so you can see what I'm up to - OPEN ( Open Route ) , Nasdaq. Hold this one for a year and if it doesn't triple within that time window I'll ferry across the sound and buy you lunch. It's around $1.25 and ready to rip, astrologically speaking, this Fall/Winter. I ain't selling no stock in this company. No matter what the overall market does. But for those who have a leaning ( not me ) I say the signal to buy long options on the indexes is NOW, TODAY, ESTE DIA!
Yes?
G'day All. later.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:39
Rack (Klintons legal bills) ID#402131: - I understand Klinton has spent over $10,000,000.00 on legal bills.
Seems to me to have been a big waste of money for someone who is supposed to be innocent. Yes? The big suprise could be when Star sends his finding to the Congress
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:36
Rack (Klintons legal bills) ID#402131: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:32
FOX-MAN__A (Producer Price Index info... PPI up .2%, excluding food/energy up .1%) ID#288186: - Washington-Aug. 14-FWN--THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX ( PPI ) rose 0.2% in July, with energy
and food prices contributing to the increase, the Labor Department said today.
July core PPI, excluding often volatile energy and food costs, rose 0.1% after increasing 0.2% for the
previous two months.
Economists surveyed by FWN were looking for an unchanged July figure and a 0.1% rise in the core.
Prices for finished energy goods rose 0.3% in July, following a 1.7% decrease in June. Prices for
residential electric power increased 1.1%, after a 0.9% decrease in June. Gasoline prices fell 1.3% in
July after showing no change in the previous month.
Also, residential electric power prices increased 1.1% while heating oil prices fell 1.0%.
Food prices were up 0.4% in July. The index for fresh and dry vegetables turned up 21.3%, after
falling 9.,0% in June. This was the highest increase since March, 1996 when the category increased
43.1%.
Pork prices moved down 10.9% after rising 7.0% in June. This was the largest decrease since falling
11.0% in October, 1976.
Prices for finished consumer goods other than food and energy rose 0.3%. This was led by a 0.8%
increase in the index for passenger cars and a 1.7% advance in prescription drugs.
Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in the pipeline remained non-existent last month, as the cost of
intermediate materials, which are partially processed, was unchanged following a drop of 0.3% in June.
Prices for commercial electric power turned up 1.2%. The index for jet fuels showed no change, after
falling a month ago.
Labor will release the August PPI report at 7:30 a.m. CDT Sept. 11.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:31
aurator (boom!) ID#255284: - nytol©glycerine
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:29
jims (For those that didn't see it Sharefin's contribution to our knowledge) ID#252391: -
( Global Intelligence Update )
Chinese Insistence on Supporting the Yuan Masks Deeper Problems
So, we have two facts. First, the Chinese government is doing everything
it can to convince non-Chinese that China is not going to permit the yuan to decline, in spite of the fact that foreigners have relatively little influence over that decision. Second, the Chinese unwillingness to devalue runs counter to the export obsessed Chinese economic strategy. Why defend an arbitrary value for your currency when it will undermine your core economic strategy? And why is China trying to convince foreigners that it will not change a clearly counterproductive policy.
At the core of their argument is a key assertion, made over and over again, that they hold $140 billion in foreign currency. It is this claim that convinces the world that China will float above the Asian disaster. It is this assertion that encourages U.S. companies to continue investments in China; to continue to finance Chinese commercial paper that is dollar denominated; that allows non-Chinese to do dollar denominated business with China. If that claim is false, then the infrastructure of Chinese export trade will begin to evaporate.
China is desperately trying to convince outsiders of its reserve level, not because of its currency concerns, but to persuade them to continue carrying out dollar denominated trade. The current campaign has little to do with the yuan and everything to do with the claim of massive reserves. Yet reports in the past two days report the Chinese selling yen fairly intensively, in spite of its depressed price. We think this has less to do with the Chinese evaluation of the yen and more to do with the need to sellforeign currencies in order to cover debts.
In other words, we are not at all convinced that China has reserves of $140 million. We do not know the true level of Chinese reserves, but we do know that the universal characteristic of the Asian crisis is that government claims on currency reserves, on banking liquidity and on bad loans and so on, have in every case proven to be false. We see no reason to believe that China is the exception. Indeed, China is perhaps the least transparent and least regulated banking system. We don't think that the Chinese have anywhere near $140 million in reserves. If they did, they would ignore speculators, they would carry out a modest devaluation, and they wouldn't give it a second thought.
We are becoming convinced that the Chinese are attempting to convince foreigners that they are in better shape than is actually the case in order to maintain the trade facilities they desperately need to maintain theireconomy's stability. Bellicose threats, inflexible currency policies, unrealistic growth targets, and obsession with exports even at losses, do not add up to the image China is trying to project. Countries with $140 billion in hard currency reserves don't behave inflexibly. Countries in financial trouble, trying to convince outsiders that there are no problems, do behave this way. That's why they are cracking down on every citizen holding foreign currency. Not because they are rolling in money, but because they are running out.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:25
aurator () ID#255284: - Fred
My pleasure! What fun we have! I salute you, and...
May this day be blesséd, for you, and yours..
Haere Ra! Haere Ra! Haere Ra!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:18
jims (The common man) ID#252391: - Behind the run in the stock market has been the broadening out of ownership to include the common man. I, like him, am subject to the use of some poor English from time to time though our desire for information is the same.
The interchange I encountered earlier today on a message board elsewhere gave me a chuckle , may be it will you.
To a previous post our common man responded and these are his exact words:
I thank your the best is hear. I like your advice the best. The others seem to be as dumm as me. And that don't help me non.
My wife needs to know if thank this new company is going help our stock? I hope you have time , the others seem to have alot of it. Your comments are few but we like em.
I agree with oilman1945 them others is sick.
Thanks alot
TO WHICH THERE WAS THIS REPLY
Don't take this wrong way...
but man, you need to brush up on your grammer.I am not saying this to be a jerk or anything. It's just a word of advice.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:11
Gollum (Dominos) ID#35571: - Several factors point to an up day for the DOW today despite uncertainties about the fortunes of WJC. If by some chance the DOW is down for the weekend, things could get very interesting. Overseas markets are influenced by movements of the DOW. The Nikkei is very near the critical 15,000 mark. Should it go much below this mark things would get very bad for the banks instead of just bad.
The last time it fell below this key figure the US and BOJ intervened in the currency markets to support the yen.
http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/80.1.html
IMF ON JAPAN: The IMF today sharply criticized Japan's efforts to bring its
economy out of recession, and revised its forecast for Japan's 1998 GDP
from unchangedanged to a decline of 1.7%. Also, the IMF said a failure by Japan
to reform its economy could spark further yen declines.
JAPAN STOCKS FALL: The Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed down 259 points, or
1.7%, at 15,123, recovering partly from the day's low of 15,049, thanks to
Hong Kong stock rallies and the yen's relative stability, along with some
buying support from public funds, traders said. Market players reinforced
caution about prospects for global stocks after US stocks fell on Thursday,
wiping out Wednesday's gains on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and as
uncertainties intensified over Russia's economic outlook, traders said.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:06
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448: - aurator
Your post - Roflmao. Needed some time to grasp the DACshonary. Wish my German was compareable to your French. Mois logginout - We canned.
Best wishes to you and the ones you love
Fred@escalopeviennoise
Gogol
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 08:04
aurator (this little piggie ) ID#255284: - notsam
hang up! I just tried your hotel and got a busy signal.
I got yor email. If I dont manage to talk to you, please, do what you can. I can send International Transfer in 38 hours ( when the banks open ) to any account you specify in an email to me.
BJ needs pigs!
a million don of thanks
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:54
aurator (Pigs, I can live with) ID#255284: - not sam
Sam_A
that's me on the phone to Korea right now!
ennivrez-vous sans Cesse
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:51
aurator () ID#255284: - Tort, your
If you live your life in a moral fashion you don't have to have all that good of a memory.
Dem's golden words. oh yes. RJ the rascally limey PM fella said something similar some time ago, was it from a grand-pappy? It was about how if lies were spread about you, you could hold your head high, because they were just lies...and anyone who knew you, could immediately see the falsehood.
Stories that may be let out from their corral crowd at the gates, ANOTHER time....
And, if I may be permitted to tell an off-colour joke, this is the one that BJ silences stuffed-shirted conferences with:
What's the difference between a blond and a mosquito?
A mosquito stops sucking when you hit it on the head.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:48
sam__A (@aurator re Pigs - you get my email?) ID#284275: -
Gotta work tommorrow so won't get to market. BTW, you're talking about quite the pig. A smaller pig and I could cover you and work things out later. A pig the size you're talking about however might get in the way of the margin calls that are sure to be piling up on me desk back home. Please contact me at pdmurray007@yahoo.com or at the Novatel Kangnam, Seoul, tel: ( 02 ) -567-1101, rm 924.
From the land of the traffic jam ( yes - even now with GDP dropping like a stone! ) ,
cheers,
sam__a.
sam__a.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:40
Speed (rhody) ID#29048: - The CRB report from yesterday, http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html and rumors from the Veneroso camp, both indicate that at least one CB is still selling into the rallys. Leasing is bad enough, but until the outright selling stops, I fear that gold will languish. Your work with lease rates is much appreciated.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:37
aurator (DACshunds R tasty!) ID#255284: - Merde!
Oui, c’est enivrez, pas eNNivrez
Pardon! Merde!
I canna spell in engrish, franglaise makes me ill!
Merde! C’est la Merde du Mort
pas la mal du mar.Ah Where is my DACshunary?
Asignats rule OK! OI!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:31
Tortfeasor (Clinton) ID#36965: - It's amazing the semantic gynastics that are being exercised and invented to try and make it look like Clinton is not the lying weasel ( no offense to you weasels out there ) he is plainly is. If his life were circumspect he would not have to have an army of spin doctors weighing and explaining his every lie and action. Truth would do. If you live your life in a moral fashion you don't have to have all that good of a memory. Go gold.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:29
rhody (Lease rates: Yesterday lease rates for one month gold were) ID#411440: - marginally unchanged at 0.84%, down from 0.85% on Wednesday.
Today one month gold is down again to 0.80%
IMHO, there will be no big move in gold until lease rates move
back up over 1% to signal a move by shorts to borrow gold
to head off any rise. In other words, a firming of gold prices
must face a short attack using leased gold that will show in
a rapid firming of lease rates. Lease rates are sliding, so
no gold bull in sight. But lease rates are so low, neither is
there a great inclination to short gold.
I wonder if the CBs wanted the POG this low? They may have been
more successful than they wanted with their strategy, and are now
worried that leasing, combined with the deflationary rise of the
dollar has resulted in overkill. In any case, POG this low may
attract unsavory attention by the general public, making the
control more difficult. There are no CBs selling gold these days
( except perhaps those idiots in the Bank of Canada ) , but more CBs
are entering the leasing game in order to derive some imcome from
a non performing asset.
If the CBs are worried, they will first terminate all selling, and
could just arbitrarily raise lease rates.
This is what I expect next January to herald in the EURO, but they
could do it now, if worried enough. I suspect the Americans would
be quite upset, although Alan Greenspan might emit a sigh of relief,
privately of course. If the POG goes much lower the BIS could step
in either with outright purchases, or simply order the leasing to
stop. They could easily do the former, but I don't know if they have
the power to do the latter. I wish there was a course I could take
in international finance and manipulation.
Gold has been actting volotile on the spot market just above its all
time lows, while the DOW has been acting volotile just below its all
time highs. HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM. And lease rates are near their
limits in capactiy to control POG. HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:28
Donald (@Mike Sheller, Rube) ID#26793: - On stocks being up for a while. You have to have a lot of guts to hold stocks long over this weekend. Russia, China, Japan et al could have some weekend surprise for you.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:25
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448: - Excusez moi,chèr monsieur, mais c´est eNivrer, pas eNNivrer. - says at least my Daktarionary.
As I humbly want to repeat - I heared,that persons under certain circumstances may spell it like ENNNNIVrez vous, ENNNNNivrez...
but thats ANOTHER story. I think.
Yours sincerest with all humbleness I´m able to
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:25
Donald (London morning precious metal news and comment) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980814/markets_pr_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:12
aurator (pas d'environs, mais ennivrons) ID#255284: - Mike/All
Perhaps Fred@Vienna and Baudelaire will forgive me if I translate, Fred's ennivrons as Let's get pissed
or
Let's watch us all get pissed together: Yes?
or
You gettin' salty, salty?
just watched Shindler's list on video for the first time ( slower than the average burgher ) agree with crusty: One of the best films of all time. Yar.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:07
rube (opinion) ID#333127: - IMHO the low is in for the US stk. mkt. for awhile. It will be interesting to see what commodities do, maybe gold has a chance. It wasn't hurt by Polish buying.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:04
aurator () ID#255284: - Evening Mike
I was wondering when I'd see ANOTHER post from you, not 30 seconds ago
Is it eclipsin time again?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:03
Mike Sheller (thoughts) ID#347447: - Morning All. The depression has turned out to be an Indeflation. That is defined by a situation of citizen impoverishment by legislators and bankers brought on by the depreciation of the people's money. Currencies are not increasing their purchase power through falling prices and imploding values, they are decreasing in purchase power through chronic inflation. Economies, households, and individuals are becoming depressed because of this, and the answer will be to increase the supply of liquidity. The process in Asia will spread to Latin America, Europe, and the US. Stagflation ahead. Remember, guys n' gals, this is the FIRST Kondratieff Wave in history where NO currency is tied to gold. ONLY gold will prove to be the true money by which EACH currency depreciates, one by one, uno por uno, as this process unfolds. When the LAST currency by which all others are weighed collapses ( the US Dollar ) then gold will be enthroned once more when the dust clears.
MEANWHILE...the Mercury retrograde station squaring NYSE Sun is retreating...NICE STOCK MARKET RALLY AHEAD! Traders man your calls! Gold will not rise until interest rates do. Period.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 07:00
Carl (NY Times story on Clinton strategy - trial balloon?) ID#341189: - ASHINGTON -- President Clinton has had extensive
discussions with his inner circle about a strategy of
acknowledging to a grand jury on Monday that he had intimate sexual
encounters with Monica S. Lewinsky in the White House, senior advisers
have said.
Although Clinton has not settled on this approach, discussions have
centered on a plan that would allow him to acknowledge a specific type
of sexual behavior while still maintaining he told the truth when he testified
in January that he never had sexual relations with the former White
House intern, the advisers said.
Clinton would say he based his previous denial, in a deposition in the
Paula Corbin Jones lawsuit, on a definition of sex approved by the judge
in the case. His advisers believe this definition does not cover certain
activities, including oral sex.
For months Clinton has publicly denied any sexual relationship with Ms.
Lewinsky. So politically, an acknowledgment of some kind of sexual
encounter poses considerable risk, particularly if it were linked to a legal
argument that rests on a narrow definition of sex.
But Clinton's advisers have said it poses a greater risk to tell anything less
than the truth to a grand jury about sex with Ms. Lewinsky. It is not clear
how precisely Clinton has described his relationship with Ms. Lewinsky
to his lawyers.
Once Clinton settles on what to say to the grand jury on Monday, he
must decide whether, and how, to explain his testimony to the American
public.
Several Clinton advisers said there was a consensus that Clinton should
speak out publicly, perhaps in a brief televised speech, after he testifies.
Several advisers said the feeling is that the President's testimony will
somehow be leaked to the public anyway, so he should portray it from his
point of view, which would oblige him to offer some specifics about the
relationship.
The advisers cautioned that preparations for the grand jury appearance
were continuing and that the strategy could still change as the President
continued to examine the legal and political implications of various
courses.
It could be that some of the President's advisers are discussing his
possible approaches with reporters to gauge the political reaction. The
President has been severely limited in his ability to take political
soundings, because anyone he talks to other than his private lawyers and
his wife, Hillary, is vulnerable to subpoenas from Kenneth W. Starr, the
Whitewater independent counsel.
The most crucial discussions have been confined to a small group of
advisers, all of whom have some recognized privilege that may be
invoked against prosecutors seeking to learn of their advice. They include
Mrs. Clinton, Clinton's lawyers Mickey Kantor and David E. Kendall,
along with other lawyers in Kendall's firm of Williams & Connolly.
Even as the President's advisers review his options, some have prefaced
their remarks by saying it is still possible that Clinton will say again, as he
has publicly, that he never had sexual relations with Ms. Lewinsky.
Rahm Emanuel, a senior political adviser to the President, declined on
Thursday to discuss Clinton's legal options. We're not going to speculate
on the latest theory of what the President is going to testify to, he said.
As the President said just the other day, he will testify completely and
truthfully.
Some See Merit In a Public Explanation
s Clinton prepares to navigate the most politically and legally
perilous moment of his Presidency, the argument for a public
explanation of some sort reflects the sense of many politicians that the
country wants to see an end to the Lewinsky saga. Democrats and
Republicans alike have suggested that even a mild and delicately worded
confession from the President might reduce the threat of impeachment
hearings based on a report to Congress from Starr.
Even if the strategy of acknowledging some sexual activities with Ms.
Lewinsky succeeds in inoculating Clinton from perjury problems, he may
still face other legal shoals. Starr's grand jury has also been investigating
whether Clinton may have obstructed justice if they discussed ways that
Ms. Lewinsky could conceal a relationship with the President and avoid
having to produce gifts that he gave her for the Jones lawsuit.
After Clinton testifies on Monday, what else he should say is a subject of
considerable debate. Some aides have argued that Clinton could blunt the
political repercussions by offering the public at least a brief explanation of
his relationship with Ms. Lewinsky. Other Clinton advisers, including
some outside the White House, have argued that he should say as little as
possible about his testimony -- that he should not do much more than
smile and announce that he is leaving on vacation.
Precisely Defining Sexual Relations
n option that is increasingly being considered would be for the
President to testify that he was telling the truth last January when he
followed a precise definition of sexual relations that the presiding judge
had approved in the Jones sexual misconduct lawsuit.
Under that definition, some advisers believe, Clinton could plausibly
assert that his contacts with Ms. Lewinsky did not constitute sexual
relations.
The issue of how to deal with Clinton's testimony in the Jones case in
January is such a critical matter that Kendall reviewed a videotape of the
testimony on Monday. He had already seen a transcript.
In that deposition, when the President was asked whether he had an affair
with Ms. Lewinsky, his response seemed to be straightforward: I have
never had sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky. I've never had an affair
with her.
But Clinton was responding to a definition of sexual relations that was
prepared by Ms. Jones' lawyers and then narrowed by Judge Susan
Webber Wright of Federal District Court.
Ms. Jones' lawyers asked Judge Wright to allow them to use this
three-part definition of sexual relations when it came up in the case:
For the purposes of this deposition, a person engages in 'sexual relations'
when the person knowingly engages in or causes --
( I ) contact with the genitalia, anus, groin, breast, inner thigh, or
buttocks of any person with an intent to arouse or gratify the sexual
desire of any person;
( II ) contact between any part of the person's body or an object
and the genitals or anus of another person; or
( III ) contact between the genitals or anus of the person and any
part of another person's body. 'Contact' means intentional
touching, either directly or through clothing.
Clinton's lawyer, Robert S. Bennett, objected, arguing the definition was
too broad and could include such benign activities as handshaking. Judge
Wright readily agreed and limited the definition to Part I, excluding the
other two.
Clinton was apparently attuned to the nuances of the definition of sexual
relations that remained after Judge Wright's ruling. When he responded to
a question of whether he had ever had relations with Gennifer Flowers, an
Arkansas singer and television personality, he replied, The answer to
your question if the definition is Section I, there in the first piece of paper
you gave me, is yes. He had never before publicly admitted to any sexual
relationship with Ms. Flowers.
When the subject was Ms. Lewinsky, Clinton, consulting the same
definition, denied a sexual affair.
There is no perjury here, one adviser to Clinton said, calling the
definition of sexual activity the President was working from
cockamamie. The President's advisers believe the definition used in the
Jones case may not cover oral sex. Under this interpretation, the definition
of sexual relations appears to be limited to whether he had contact with
certain parts of her body, but not others.
The discussions of this strategy have been extensive enough to include
consideration of its major political drawback: it would reinforce his critics'
notion of Clinton as a lawyerly manipulator of language used to evade
responsibility, as someone who may be technically truthful but not
fundamentally honest.
The President's advisers said they feared that this strategy would invite
charges that he is ducking and weaving, exploiting a definitional loophole
to muddy the truth.
They fear it would remind people of Clinton's careful weighing of his
words in 1992 when he and Mrs. Clinton appeared on the CBS News
program 60 Minutes after Ms. Flowers said that she had been sexually
involved with him.
Before the television appearance, a campaign aide said, the Clinton
campaign conducted focus groups with voters and learned that older
women would react negatively to any discussion of cheating or adultery.
As a result, the aide said, Clinton chose a more ambiguous phrase to use
during the program, that he had caused pain in his marriage.
I don't think there's a legal risk here, said one lawyer. The risk is really
sort of political and public relations.
Since polls show that many Americans believe that Clinton and Ms.
Lewinsky had an affair, some White House advisers hope that changing
the essence of the President's story would not be as damaging as it would
have been months ago.
But the advisers said neither they nor the President had settled on the
format in which he should make his case -- or on how far he should go in
discussing his involvement with Ms. Lewinsky. Part of the uncertainty
stems from the fact that many of the advisers who are debating political
strategy are not privy to the legal discussions.
Clinton's political advisers have not directly asked him about the nature of
his relationship with Ms. Lewinsky, although they do discuss the politics
surrounding it. And while they stand by his denials in public, some have
privately concluded that Clinton had some sort of sexual affair with her.
They express confidence that he found a linguistic loophole to avoid
perjuring himself.
If the President argues that he was using a narrow definition of sex in
denying an affair with Ms. Lewinsky, he will undercut several of his senior
aides, who assured the public in January that he was not splitting hairs.
Some White House officials told reporters in January that they had been
specifically told by the White House counsel's office that Clinton was not
playing word games.
Sex is sex, Ann F. Lewis, the White House communications director,
said on Jan. 25 on the program Fox News Sunday. Maybe only in
Washington is this considered something we ought to spend a lot of time
on.
But, no, a sexual relationship means what it says, and that includes sex.
In the seven months since the Lewinsky matter became public, Clinton
has flatly denied that he had an affair with the former intern in the White
House -- an assertion that he could, of course, still repeat to the grand
jury. But Ms. Lewinsky testified to the grand jury last week that she and
the President had had sex on several occasions, people familiar with her
account said. And she turned over to Mr. Starr a dress that is being
tested to determine whether there is semen on it.
Now, Clinton is working with his legal advisers on answers to potential
questions from Starr and his colleagues.
Perils in Contradicting Testimony of Lewinsky
he President could stick to his statement that he had no sexual
relationship with Ms. Lewinsky whatsoever -- though that would
directly contradict Ms. Lewinsky's testimony. If the grand jury believed
her, that would open the question of perjury on a much more serious level
-- in a criminal rather than a civil case.
Clinton could also resist questions about the nature of his relationship with
Ms. Lewinsky, claiming that they violate his right to privacy, or he could
try to use vague language in response to specific questions. Yet it is
unclear that the courts would sustain a Fourth Amendment claim to some
kind of privacy privilege. Moreover, there is a risk that he would appear
nonresponsive if Starr's team asks him very specific questions about the
nature of his involvement with Ms. Lewinsky.
In Clinton's practice sessions, his advisers said, his lawyers are
questioning him and designing answers that allow him to acknowledge a
relationship with Ms. Lewinsky without going into graphic detail.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 06:55
APH (Trading - S&P) ID#255226: - If the Sept SnP can open above 1085 and hold it for the first 30 minutes the market would have a chance to move up to the 1110 - 1120 area or higher. Hold silver with stops under yesterdays lows. Currently long SnP from 1078.50.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 06:48
Bingo (You too may cast your vote...) ID#263254: - T1...now don't go and plug up their email on this one, buddy. *grin*
http://www.impeachclinton.org/
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 06:26
Gollum (Mixed) ID#43349: - Some up, some down. Market futures are up, but is it a good thing to be buying in on the Friday of the week before Clinton's videotape?
Yen is up, but so is the dollar a little. Focus is shifting to Europe.
Oil is up, but prcious metals down.
A good day for stayong home or tossing coins.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 06:13
Speed (Polish gold purchase..this guy understands) ID#29048: - August 14, 1998
Polish Central Bank Bought 2.4 Mln Troy Ounces Gold In May
Dow Jones Newswires
WARSAW -- The Polish central bank bought 2.4 million troy ounces of gold in May, Krzysztof Majczuk, director of the bank's foreign operations department confirmed Friday. He said the bank increased its gold reserves to 3.3 million troy ounces from 907,000 troy ounces previously. It is our independent decision about the structure ( of our reserves ) and our strategy, Majczuk said. He said gold now made up 3.3% of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. Majczuk said the purchase would diversify the bank's foreign currency reserve, and provide the bank with some added support in times of global financial crisis.
It's not a big defense in a world crisis, he said. But gold is gold.
The Polish central bank last bought gold at the beginning of the year, when it increased its gold reserves to 907,000 troy ounces from 904,000 troy ounces.
-By Jennifer Laidlaw; 48-22 622-2766; jlaidlaw@ap.org
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:52
mozel (@Events) ID#153102: - America's default on foreign debt occurred in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. Between 1971 and 1977 the world tried to figure out how to cope with that. In essence the US got another chance at reserve currency status in 1977. But, Congress, corrupted absolutely by absolute power, abused the trust placed in it.
By the time of German reunification the justification for the Europeans to go along with American abuse of its position as reserve currency country had disappeared. Russia was no longer a military threat to Europe. A new reserve currency began to come into being. I think the delay has been due to Germany.
The Germans hugely overextended themselves to reunify. The credit demise of Russia will also cost Germany. There will be gold changing hands over this. And the other big gold nations in ECB, France and Italy, which also have live memories of German occupation, are going to make the most of it. Never forget that a gold lease for one party is a gold debt for some other party. Bundesbank is not going to dictate to ECB if the French and Italians have their way. They are the nations now calling for a ban on gold leasing. The English also are wary of Germany and that is why Soros got an article urging ruble devaluation published in FT.
The Europeans are attempting to have a Bank independent of national legislatures. Their aim is fiscal integrity. This seems odd for a continent of socialists, but necessity makes strange bedfellows.
I think the Polish Central Bank acquisition of gold speaks for itself.
I don't know who wanted to telegraph what to whom by publicizing this purchase. I do think it is apparent BIS is attempting to put in place a platform for international trade that can survive political and economic turmoil.
Compared to fiat paper which depends on armed force for acceptance, gold is civilized and civilizing.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:45
strat (spock) ID#93241: - You forgot #3...
3. The government uses middle class savings to underwrite corporations and financial markets.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:38
Spock (Paradoxes of the neo-liberal agenda) ID#210114: - 1. Financial markets undermine the actions of government and yet they expect the government to bail them out when they stuff up.
2. Savings of the middle class are used by the financial markets to undermine the policies that created the middle class.
What's wrong with this picture
Live Long and Prosper.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:35
Donald (Japanese corporate bankruptcies surge more than 28% in July.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980814/japan_bank_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:34
Spock (Nationalising Banks!!) ID#210114: - What a mob of COMMUNISTS!! ( sarcasm )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:33
strat (Where is...) ID#93241: - ...everybody? Weather report: overcast, chance of rain here in Shawnee country. So in that vein, I thought a little Y2K material might be in order. Check out PC Magazine's Y2K Resource Site:
http://www.zdnet.com/pcmag/special/y2k/index.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:33
Spock (Beaming in......) ID#210114: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:31
Donald (Volcker says Mexican bankers and businessmen who committed fraud must be jailed.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980814/asia_banks_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:31
jims (Well, here we go again . . . ) ID#252391: - With the rallies in the S&P 500 it looks like we'll have a repeat performance of yesterday in the sense that we'll be about back to where we stared to go down. SAilver and gold off a bit, yen now down a smidge, oil up or down depending where you look, European stocks up across the board. Real tough to be a silver bull, real tough to not short this stock market - looking at the SPY - look out everybody this may be the buy signal of the week - but I have to have confidence in what I see - these markets have peaked, they may rally more but I can not see the S&P above 113 unless we're back on our way to 10,000.
BEST POST OF THE DAY: in my opinion goes to Sharefin's find several hours ago posted about the Chinese not having the 140 billion in reserves they say they do. Lok back and read it
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:27
Donald (Nationalization of the Asian banks may be the only solution) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980814/asia_banks_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 05:23
Donald (Fears over the stability of the Mexican peso return.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980813/mexico_cur_1.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 04:28
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448: - Due to current weather conditions - and when this holds to at least the end of august, mid sept - you should add austrian wine, year 1998 as a gem to your collection. To fulfill kitco requirements: Consider it as liquid gold and see it as a long term investment. Enivrons!
Fred@vinegar
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 04:02
blooper (Dell would be a business computer) ID#207145: - Pick it up in October at the percieved lows. Everyone will anticipate 2nd quarter demand.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:57
blooper (Sharefin) ID#207145: - Buy the dip in 1st quarter, something like that?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:53
sharefin (Blooper) ID#284255: - If the power utilities are no better off
By march '99
Who's going to feel confident to buy new PC's.
I think a lot of potential buyers are going to be cautious.
9000 utilities in the US
30000 globally?
All looking at their systems.
Then mid next year they're going to want to start replacing.
Going to be one hell of a load on the suppliers.
Guess it'll be the same for compliant PC makers.
When the wave of buying hits
The laws of supply and demand will too.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:51
blooper (Aurator) ID#207145: - Batten down the hatches for all of 1999. Year 2000 is shot for most part. Maby 2001?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:47
blooper (Actually I consider Tech to dangerous to invest in. Am 100% cash) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:45
sharefin (Aurator - more of the above) ID#284255: - http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/news/19980813/cwcontainer.asp?name=C13.html
Threat of global crashes as firms skip post-fix testing
Failures of these industries could have major effects on the economies of countries further along the date bug road
Two-thirds of companies in Russia, China, the Middle East, Argentina and Venezuela will experience mission-critical business failures and half the firms in Japan, Germany and Malaysia.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A 2000 bugbear: law to lift the exchange rate
http://www.afr.com.au/content/980814/news/news1.html
The Government is having a look at what the US is going to do. There is the possibility of fast-tracking legislation,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Banks drained by date bug and euro spending
http://www.computerweekly.co.uk/cwarchive/news/19980813/cwcontainer.asp?name=C17.html
~~~~~~~~~~~
Chicken Little and Good PR
http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/98/0813/icbusiness1.asp
Despite the enormous sums businesses are spending to eradicate the Year 2000 problem ( alternatively known as Y2K or the millennium bug ) , their heads are in the sand about its potential effects on consumers. How consumers react to media coverage of Y2K and their day-to-day transactional experiences after it arrives could make or break the U.S. economy.
Gathering speed
What happens will depend largely on who influences consumers the most: doomsayers or industry. Right now, about the only message consumers are getting about Y2K is from the media, and it is not good.
What will consumers do?
One fear is that the scary reporting on Y2K will take its toll, prompting consumers to hedge their bets on the economy by reducing spending, dropping out of equity markets and withdrawing excessively from banks. How much the economy can bear before real damage sets in is anyone's guess.
It probably will not take much, perhaps not more than a 1% or 2% drop from how things work today, to send things into a tailspin. While a low-digit decline might otherwise be a normal economic occurrence, media coverage of Y2K will likely make it seem even worse. We know from other recent crises, minor in comparison to what we suspect about Y2K, that panic can set in very quickly.
Despite the media's drum roll on Y2K, many consumers will not take notice of it until the worst happens -- their lights go out, reservations get lost, phones go dead, cards fail in ATMs or billing errors occur. Their chorus of complaints inevitably would echo in the media and convert still others to distrust the marketplace.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:38
blooper (Correction) ID#207145: - One would buy tech the first of 99, or at percieved market bottom in say October?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:34
blooper (Aurator) ID#207145: - So the new bull market in technology could well start with the summer lows next year?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:29
aurator () ID#255284: - Bloops
Not stupid question at all.
Some of my crients have been putting off purchasing new pooters until 2/3 qtr 99. in the resigned belief that their 3-4 yr pootas are gonna be useless then.
But these are PCs, not mainframes and not embedded chips. I listen to Allen's dissertations on the medical industries, and wonder how much more reliant the US is on pootas than the rest of us.
When I asked my friends inside hospitals here they look in amazement that the ICU machines have date chips. Most of them are date independant, or so I'm told.
One of my crients has run a Y2K test and is buying a new poota, I could see more of a problem in US and Europe than down under.
Of course, the whole debate is academic if our hydroelectric power stations can't control the spillways....
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:23
aurator (Sophists-R-Us) ID#255284: -
I wouldn't have seen it, if I hadn't believed it
quoth iconoclarsetor@tor
in reference to:
UFO's
Stock Bear
Homestake Profits
Clinton's twisted little man
Fatima's vision
The Gold Bull
The stone rolled away
The lunar landing
The Rolling Stones
The Forbidden Planet
An honest lawyer
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:20
blooper (Aurator) ID#207145: - Will there be a net loss or gain in computer sales due to Y2K. I realize this is a stupid question, but will ask?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:15
blooper (Autator) ID#207145: - I see this man is using the Bill Clinton Y2K Method. Oh, it won't be so bad. The technology bear market will be caused by lack of funds, due to Y2K expenditures.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:11
blooper (A man hears what he wants to hear) ID#207145: - and disregards the rest.......The boxer.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:09
aurator (3 monkees aka the oxymoronic Information Technology Minister) ID#255284: - Allen/ Sharefin/Y2K
You gotta love this little gem in today's ( 14/8/98 ) NZ Herald
Information Technology Minister, Maurice Williamson told a company directors' conference in Wellington yesterday that the Government was waiting for its Year 2000 task force to 'give a clear, objective, picture of the situation' and recommend options on any steps to be taken.
in other words
we know nothing, and there are just over 500 days until millie whatsit comes around to dance de apo-calypso with you and me...
I ain't scared, but am thinking of askin' skwirl if he needs an opie to his Andy Griffiths ( ?durn memory ) , I shall pull on my general store overalls, and be happy to count the cans of beans, chewin' on a leetle piece of grass, in Springtime @ the rockies.
We'll watch the store together, yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:08
blooper (Garzarelli runs a mutual fund) ID#207145: - Before she was honest. Now she hhas a vested intrest in lying.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:06
blooper (James) ID#207145: - What happens when the Japaneese start to improve, and call in that Yen carry to put it into the Nikki Dow.?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:05
Who Cares?__A (Where will the money go?) ID#242328: - To refinance house loans at even lower rates, thus freeing up more
consumer dollars to keep the economy going.
To refinance government bonds at a lower rate, thus freeing up
more dollars for wasteful government spending that will boost the
economy. : )
Here's the equation -
Total Debt X Average Interest Rate = K ( some constant )
As Total Debt increases, the only way to maintain a stable monetary
system is to reduce interest rates accordingly.
K ( some Klintonian Konstant ) represents the real rate of growth in
the economy - which must equal total debt payments. At least,
to keep an orderly system they have to balance. Eventually.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:03
blooper (James) ID#207145: - Abby Josef Cohen loves you.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 03:00
James (Garzerelli@Her reasoning is so twisted & convoluted, & yet elegant in it's simplicity that she) ID#252150: - will probably turn out to be right. If the long bond goes below 5%, where will all that money go? I know we'd like to think that a lot would go into PMs, but that would be logical so it probably won't happen.
To bed to dream of Garzarelli & Cohen chastising Accumpura for being such a chickenshit spoilsport.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:59
blooper (Blooper is history. At least for tonight. Goodnight one and all. God bless.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:57
blooper (Hopeful, Don't hope for a depression to me) ID#207145: - You may talk as crazy as you wish to someone else.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:52
blooper (Hopeful) ID#207145: - Everybody lays people off when profits go to nothing. That is a recession. We shall see about the D word. Alarmism is for alarmist types.
I prepare for depression, and hope for recession. If you lose your job it's a depression. I wish you luck, and all Americans the same.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:49
Who Cares?__A (Inevitable depression?) ID#242328: - I no longer think a depression is inevitable, either.
That's the part that bothers me the most. The real money makers
during the 1930s were the average workers. The ones that stayed
employed benefited from the drop in commodity and real estate
prices. Ergo, the political and economic system became stable
again.
My biggest fear these days is that we will NOT have a depression.
Belief systems are more powerful than information systems.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:45
blooper (Envy) ID#207145: - I got the gist. We are not far away from being vulnerable. Thank God the Canadians are not only cicilized, but cool. The Rise and the Fall of America. I got the symbolism. Alaric will come.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:45
James (RJ@Ethel Merman & LiberaceSurely to God that combo would be against the Geneva ) ID#252150: - Convention. If you had been in charge of the horrible loud music crew at Waco, Koresh & his followers would have surrendered within 48 hours.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:44
aurator (spam?) ID#255284: - Aww that's just great. Not content with spamming me with encouragements to buy pheremones to attract the gurlz, now some kind asole just threw a liposuction without surgery spam in my mailbox.
I shall eat the people responsible with puha.
aurator, fat and unattractive in paradise.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:40
blooper (Who Cares) ID#207145: - We won't have it near as bad as the East. You betcha those will lay off, and many, many more Co. But I don't think depression is a sure bet. It does look that way. I am not shaking. I'm not a spoiled wus. I pity thoes people. Because it will be hard. I am waiting to buy gold. Want some of those Austrian coins. Very pure.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:37
Envy (@Blooper) ID#219363: - Nah, don't worry about me just yet, I ain't the superstitious type. *grin*
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:33
blooper (Japan is the key) ID#207145: - They will sell a shitpot full of cars to us. And Sonys. Problem is Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore Won't be buying.Europe will buy.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:33
Who Cares?__A (Leading Indicator of a Bear Market) ID#242328: - As explaining in postings from ten months ago... : )
I believe that a true depression in the United States will almost
certainly be preceded by major layoffs at Intel and Microsoft...
and throughout the computer industry in general.
i.e. there must be a *permanent* change in their future fortunes.
It's a poor bet to go against Greenspan after the track record of the
past eight years.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:28
blooper (Beamer. Thanks again. ) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:26
blooper (Envy) ID#207145: - We are still a very strong nation. Alaric is not due yet. Do not be misled. We have might. A depression would give us determination. Hard way to come by it.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:23
blooper (Their economy key to Euro start. I fear the Euro.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:22
blooper (Hopeful) ID#207145: - Europe is doing quite well. Early in their cycle. Gaining strength. Till this crap. Germany edgy over Russian loans, but strong market till our Bear.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:20
Envy (@Arden) ID#219363: - Actually, maybe it is a sign. 1998 ( the year ) + 14 ( the day ) does in fact equal the ascii total for Alaric 1 King of the Visigoths *grin*. Don't EVEN ask me why I just added that up, I haven't the faintest.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:18
blooper (Beamer, Thank you man!!! Holler if I can return it.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:14
blooper (Hopeful) ID#207145: - The Europeans have sucked hind tit to the dollar causing Oil in particular to be very expensive. If we drop from a 1 to 1 ratio, dollar to Euro to 2 to 1, our oil doubles. Think about that.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:12
Beamer (Blooper - Re: Currency Quotes) ID#260108: - Try Yahoo Finance for spot currency prices or http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm for futures prices. Also
Globex for futures...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:08
HopeFull (blooper, agree about our phase of the business cycle....) ID#402148: - but god help us if Europe and Asia don't kick in to carry the world.
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:08
aurator (Mr Universe.) ID#255284: -
One more HARD TIMES business is the get-fit jazzerzize, gymnasium, dance studio, if past HTs are anything to go by. There were fads of dancing: Foxtrots, Tangos Charleston, that all appeared in HTs, Charles Atlas made his fortune in the last depression. On reflcetion, because so much money has already been made in get-fit, perhaps we're already in a depression that we'll be reading about in the history books tomorrow.
Thing about Pawnbrokers & 2nd hand shops, at the moment, much stock was bought at inflated-eighties type pricing structures. Gotta wait till the second-hand dealers go outa business and then buy the stock. A friend just bought a MAMMOTH inventory of costumes/wardrobe from a theatre with 70+ years of productions for a penny in the pound, and will be hiring it for the next couple of decandes. He listened to auracious, ( I don't listen to auracious ) . There's two roads to riches paths. The last I canvass also recomended by a grandma hereabouts, be a fixit-man. If you can fix a toaster and a toilet, a video and a hole in the roof you'll never starve, cos people like me will pay you to fix stuff.
I shall start the Charles Aurator School of fitness. Buy 2 x 400 oz London Delivery from auracious. Hold one in each hand, star jump for 3 minutes. Then tie them to your ankles and star jump for 3 minutes more. There are 100 exercises you can do in the privacy of your own home with two Charles Aurator™ Gold Bars..
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:06
HopeFull (blooper, I hope are right! ) ID#402148: - Globex is back up and running for quotes.
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:05
blooper (Hopeful) ID#207145: - Jake Bernstein is calling for this also. We are nearing the end of our business cycle, or haven't you noticed?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:03
HopeFull (Gosh Jack, here in the USA we have cut military expenditures in half....) ID#402148: - while social welfare programs have tripled in size. Seems the socialist programs from JFK and LBJ just grew and grew and grew.
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:01
blooper (Hopeful) ID#207145: - The Euro may replace the dollar with regard to middle eastern oil producers, at a time when the dollar is peaking. Also look for Japan to improve next year. They will bring home their bond money. The Yen will be in a long term up trend, the dollar a long term down trend.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 02:00
HopeFull (Charles Keeling, black market Yuan at 10% discount already.) ID#402148: - If the devaluation already in tacitly executed, it's already in the market.
So what effects are we waiting for now?
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:56
blooper (How can I get currency quotes, Anyone, HELP.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:56
HopeFull (Blooper....was taking Macroeconomics in college i nearly '70s....) ID#402148: - There were 3 major contirbutors to the sudden jump in inflation, which undermined the paper markets:
1 ) A grain shortage;
2 ) An oil shock:
3 ) Stimualtive fiscal policy ( the gas ) while under wage/price controls ( the brakes ) .
How are we a gonna duplicate all that at once to get your scenario of and INFALTIONARY recession in current global enviroment?
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:55
Charles Keeling (@ blooper) ID#344225: - Yes...That is it....The UNFOLDING CHINESE DEVALUATION.
perfect. It is unfolding.
Just like we knew it would!
Puetz was right---He was just early. Buy those puts now.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:54
Who Cares?__A (Another conspiracy revealed. :)) ID#242328: - Eight months ago, I posted to this newsgroup about my personal
work with the Department of Transportation that was peripherally
associated with information systems to track U.S drivers, in
purposeful violation of privacy laws.
And now, the National ID card is on its way. : )
I TOLD you so. : )
Resposted from a nearby newsgroup ---------------------------
national id card update: What's going on here?
Last week Paul Weyrich, host of Direct Line with Paul Weyrich
and President of the Free Congress Foundation, updated viewers on the
truth behind what had happened in the fight to stop the Department of
Transportation from implementing a national identification card system.
In doing so, Weyrich expressed concerns on Congressman Bob Barr's ( R-GA )
midnight deal, resulting in the withdrawal of an amendment which would
have stopped the immediate implementation of such a system. Congressman
Barr appeared as a guest on America's Voice Tonight to defend his
actions. Following were Congressman Barr's comments from Wednesday,
August 5th:
Washington is full of pundits who like to think that they know
everything, and are prescient, and can see into the future. I prefer to
deal with reality. We've been working very, very hard to address this
issue of a national identification card. Legislation was introduced, I
don't think Paul Weyrich did that. We have been working on almost a
daily basis with some groups that really are very interested in working
with us, to see that this proposal to move toward a national
identification card is implemented. I'm working with a lot of our
colleagues up here, that may not be important to Paul, and I'm sorry
that it isn't, but we're moving forward on a number of fronts. Some
people, maybe Paul among them, feel it's more important to go down in
flames than it is to try and accomplish something. Had we moved forward
with that particular amendment, which was a very limited one, and
applied only to the next fiscal year, and would have been dropped
probably by the senate anyway, we probably would have lost the vote.
And that would have put us behind the eight ball.
I don't know quite what somebody means when they say we ought
not to compromise. What I'm trying to do is stop the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration from moving forward with this particular
plan. Now, if we can accomplish that in a number of different ways,
then I want to try and move on all of those different ways. Not put all
of our eggs in one basket that was likely to fail. I am not convinced
that Lamar Smith is an advocate of a national identification card. That
is not what I understand from talking with him, but if we have the
opportunity to work with some other folks to accomplish the result that
we want to, it strikes me as rather odd for people to say ' oh we
shouldn't do that'. I mean, the goal is to stop them from implementing
this national identification card through mandatory information on
driver's licenses. There are a number of ways we can do that. I'd be
happy to explain them to Paul, but there are a number of ways that we're
working on doing that. We had meetings today, we had meetings
yesterday, and will have more meetings on this.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:53
Jack () ID#252127: -
To say that Regan was just a scumbag would be putting it mildly, but then his predecessors were not better, all hacks and leaders of the same cabal whose intent is to control the globe; while the American people foot the bill for their own destruction.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:52
Flash (China) ID#301318: - Yuan devaluation? Eventually:
http://www.singapore-window.org/80606sc.htm
HK$ already devalued? From the streets of Hong Kong:
http://www.insidechina.com/china/news/25.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:52
blooper (At my age I don't even waste a pee hard. Roll Over Bethhovina.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:48
blooper (Me and my dad blame typos) ID#207145: - Saddest trip dick ever took was to Dublin.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:46
HopeFull (OK so the Chinese are out of USD, and have been selling Yen.....) ID#402148: - so?
They print Yuan?
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:46
blooper (SHAREFIN) ID#207145: - The saddest trip Dick ever too was to Dublin.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:44
blooper (73--74 Here we GO AGAIN.) ID#207145: - Clinton in the role of Tricky Dick. It suits him: TRICKY DICK Clinton, yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:42
sharefin ( Mycoxafailin) ID#284255: - All Drugs have a generic name.
Tylenol is Acetaminophen
Advil is Ibuprofen
And so on...
What's the generic name for Viagra?
Mycoxafailin
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:42
blooper (Charles Keeling, You mean the unfolding Chinese Devaluation.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:42
JTF (First PPT over one hundred years ago) ID#57232: - mozel: When I am less sleepy, I will post your a reference that shows that the concept of a PPT did not begin with R Reaganm, but predated him by almost 100 years. However, I would guess that the current PPT has alot more financial clout at their fingertips than they did years ago ----- G'Nite!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:41
John Disney__A (Wish it was true ..) ID#24135: - Wizened..
Jumped back in about a month ago
when came back to rand from $ ..
randslide extended .. I panicked
and jumped to golds seeing the
profits resulting from cheap rand ..
Much too smart for own good as
market has still not seen this and
will not apparently until after
third quarter results out.
Seems most US market analysts
are basket weaving majors .. no make
that .. drop outs.
Get and son tell me daily how
dumb I am .. not all bad ..builds
humility.. makes me a better person
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:40
blooper (Mozel, The scary thing is; both want to leave.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:39
Charles Keeling (@ ALL RE: COMING CHINESE DEVALUATION) ID#344225: - The black market already mirrors what is happening.
The Chinese don't have to declare a devaluation, the market
will do that for them. I believe that it is happening.
Watch out Hong Kong---then Japan---then the USA.
This from an alert received today:
We are becoming convinced that the Chinese are attempting to convince
foreigners that they are in better shape than is actually the case in order to maintain the trade facilities they desperately need to maintain their economy's stability. Bellicose threats, inflexible currency policies, unrealistic growth targets, and obsession with exports even at losses, do not add up to the image China is trying to project. Countries with $140 billion in hard currency reserves don't behave inflexibly. Countries in financial trouble, trying to convince outsiders that there are no problems, do behave this way. That's why they are cracking down on every citizen holding foreign currency. Not because they are rolling in money, but because they are running out.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:38
blooper (Sharefin) ID#207145: - I prepare so I won't be a total nut case. I wouldn't be a gentler soul at any rate. I attemp to hold between the ditches. If I am prepared, I can sleep well. Always a pleasure S.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:36
mozel (@American Market Crash) ID#153102: - Greenspan is not guilty. Greenspan and Rubin have performed the duty imposed on them by the Public Law Credit Control Act which in previous posts I have identified by statute number.
Does anybody dispute that the Congress regards the function, health, and stability of the American Stock Market as not being a matter of National Security ?
Puetz and many others, myself included, did not take into account that the rules of the game changed when the credit of the USG was authorized for intervention in markets that have been fraudulently represented to the world and to the public as free markets. The fictional dipsters are actually the insiders who knew the government had before and would again intervene. Will we one day learn that the administration of Reagan put this in motion. I, for one, would not be surprised.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:35
JTF (Got your post) ID#57232: - RJ: Comments appreciated though eyes barely open. When derivatives are being used both for hedging and speculation, it certainly does make it hard to unravel such activity for personal investment or speculative purposes. I must freely admit that I find it hard to read the COT's of speculators and large commercials. It is not obvious to me.
Interesting times we are living in. We are experiencing the information revolution as we speak, but we are also seeing serial fiat currency debt implosions, and much turmol in the world. It is hard to remember that in all cycles that there is the bad and good, and in the ashes of the old cycle are the seeds of the next.
I also have learned to respect the reflexive model of George Soros -- that markets are highly nonlinear. Their very nonlinear nature also makes turning points hard to predict, but once the trend shifts in a big way, trend continues for some time in the opposite direction. We are certainly nearing a turning point in the US dollar, and the fortunes of the dollar and gold are linked inversely.
Good night all -- upover and downunder!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:32
RJ (..... Georgette.... Makin Waaaaaves .....) ID#411259: -
Hurricane Georgette is a few hundred miles to the east of Cabo San Lucas at the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Rain and humidity will not find us here, but the storm is packing 105 MPH winds and is perfectly situated to give us a gnarly southern swell.
20 footers by Sunday
Not good kayak weather
Huh uh
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:32
blooper (John Disney) ID#207145: - Just too complicated for Ruskies to copy. Tool and Die nightmare.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:31
dirt (or should that be Goodbye Dollar ?) ID#215379: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:31
sharefin (Bloop) ID#284255: - Thanks Mate
I gotta prepare cause I have a beautiful family I care for.
Their survival comes before all else.
Their survival comes before myself.
Since I have become aware of this coming threat,
I have not done any trading.
My money is elsewhere needed.
For my families security.
Slowly but surely I'm extracting myself from my debts.
Clearing out of this banking system.
Stated last Oct and have almost got there.
Already organised my Y2k holiday retreat.
Then to the stockpile stage.
Nothing over the top.
No great inconvieniences.
Just some low key preparations.
I don't intend to exit stage right,
Rather just to move to one side.
Sort of like going to the pub,
And a great blue starts up.
To my mind I calmly walk back out the door.
I'm not one to join in.
Or sit it out as a spectator.
I abide disharmony and angst.
To me the gentler paths.
With which I walk with my family in hand.
Namaste to the gentler souls on this beautiful planet.
The ones who walk in peace.
There is room for us all.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:30
blooper (To be honest, Puetz does not bother me, and is welcome.) ID#207145: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:29
dirt (Hello Yen, goodbuy Dollar) ID#215379: - To my friends in the Ministry of Finance in Japan: You have the $US against the ropes, now you go for the knock-out. Sell US dollars and Treasuries, enough warning....
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:28
John Disney__A (I told you so..) ID#24135: - Bloops ..
Only justification for new plane
is old F-16 couldnt REALLY beat
MIG 29.. otherwise why build new
plane ? heh heh .. get my drift
bloops ?..
Dont feel bad .. you only poor
victim of US propaganda machine ..
I predict new plane will be
operated by Windows 2000 ..
will be VIRTUAL aircraft .. used
chiefly in computer games.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:27
blooper (Guru named Puetz?) ID#207145: - A guru named Tom Cruise, yes. A guru named puetz? I don't know. Put it on cruise control. Put it on puetz control? If the mountain wont come to Puetz, Puetz will come...... Well you know the deal. It's Puetzy.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:22
Wizened (@ John D.) ID#242303: - What are you selling- I didn't think you had anything left to sell?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:20
blooper (RJ) ID#207145: - Never owned a gold coin. Interested in Austrian coin. I need to buy some fairly soon, and can't wait. Gush.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:19
John Disney__A (Dirty Guy Greasepan) ID#24135: - For Wizened
Heah Ah Iz ..
I agree all the crap going on is
REALLY greasepan trying to make
Puetz look bad. I mean Really ..
Grow up Greasepan.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:19
Wizened (It's a pity there isn't a Fairy God Greenspan to prop up gold from time to time...) ID#242303: -
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:18
mozel (@Gianni) ID#153102: - Planting is a gamble. The best price is always had where there is freedom to open and operate markets without asking anybody's permission. Simple as that.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:16
Who Cares?__A (Wizened missed Greenspan's admission of guilt) ID#242328: - Greenspan admitted propping up the financial system late last year
in a public speech.
Been there, done that.
I can see that it's time for a refresher on conspiracies as a
function of information.. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:15
RJ (..... J T F .....) ID#411259: -
Don’t go yet. I read your posts and agree entirely that the marketplace is used for everything from pure business to pure speculation. In fact the major portion is speculative. It becomes impossible to distinguish one motive from another as the market offers opportunities for hedges to swap into a quick speculation when the market moves their way. Likewise a speculator could find herself wanting to take delivery of her contract rather than take the profits because the metal is soaring and she figures it will soon be worth much more. The motives you assign are valid, but they will tell us little about the whys of these markets. This is a case when understanding the nuts and bolts will arm your better than guessing at motives. It becomes impossible to define the dividing line.
Yes
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:15
Wizened (Someone wants gold..the polish central bank for eg.) ID#242303: -
http://cnnfn.com/markets/9808/13/commods/
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:14
blooper (Jon Disney) ID#207145: - Soon we have a brand new fighter. When will Russia?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:14
Envy (@Arden) ID#219363: - You're very welcome, and happy birthday to you! 50 is awesome, hope to be fit when I get there. I'm always love this time of year between Lammas and Hallow's Eve, it's an introspective time as the weather changes and gets a little cooler in the evenings. Actually, here's another quick story about the 14th of Aug, also relates to this group in a historical kind of way, hopefully not a sign though *grin* -
There was this guy, guy named Alaric. He was born sometime before 400AD, nobody really knows when, in Europe. Alaric was something akin to royalty if there was such a thing for the Goths, and was King of the Visigoths. Anyway, he worked for the Romans and lead the Gothic auxiliaries. Later in his mysterious history he turned his troops on Greece, and eventually on Italy and Rome. The Romans were lazy at this point in their history, prone to fighting with each other, etc. They decided to strike a deal with Alaric and offered him 4000 pounds of Gold if he'd leave them alone. He agreed, but they never did pay up. So he attacked Rome a few times, and finally, on the fourteenth day of August, in the year of our Lord four hundred and ten, Alaric, King of the Visigoths, sacked Rome. Legend has it he tried to keep his troops from pillaging Rome, but they did it anyway.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:12
Wizened (Who Cares/ Puetz .... whatever) ID#242303: - Calling a collapse two years early, just before a 40 run-up is....or maybe it was all a plan by Greenspan to discredit Puetz.
John Disney- are you still here/there?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:07
Who Cares?__A (Pawn shops) ID#242328: - People pawn items. Temporarily. When next they gain cash, they
buy their own stuff back.
Sometimes.
Check out the depressed parts of California. Like Victorville. I stayed
there for a few weeks earlier this year. One of the few remaining
industries are pawn shops. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:07
blooper (Sharefin) ID#207145: - What I was trying to say was, you prepare in the right ways. Then have a reasonable peace of mind amid the uneasiness.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:06
RJ (..... Grizz @ 00:02 .....) ID#411259: -
Your post made me think
More than once today
Good advice, warmly given
Now if I could just find the time
But I am growing to suspect
That my search for the time
May only find
That time has run out
The time is now, indeedy?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:06
JTF (Signing off) ID#57232: - Derivatives: Hedging vs speculating. Hedging is a clearly beneficial use of derivatives. Speculation, however offers a different dimension, since a big enough speculator can actually manipulate the market with a relatively small amount of capital.
I think the world-wide speculation in unregulated derivatives trades is a serious threat to the world economy. Doubling every two years. This can't go on forever.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:05
HopeFull (SWPI...PAWN SHOPS) ID#402148: - Better idea would be to start a upscale, large ticket pawn shop, AFTER it hits, then u are paying pennies on the dollar for things that have real value and would eventually appreciate.
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:02
Who Cares?__A (Puetz was right!) ID#242328: - Puetz was right in December. The crash should have occurred.
But. Everybody has computers and historical data now, so Greenspan
knew it, too.
And stopped it.
Puetz underestimated the power of Uncle Sam. I already made that
mistake in 1990 and 1994. We *should* have gone in the
whopper of all depressions in 1991, with the banking system
doing a complete collapse in 94.
Sam held it together. And I now believe he will hold it together
long enough to blame the end result on Y2K rather than his
own fiscal mismanagement and plundering.
I told you so, Puetz. : ) I TOLD you that you were underestimating
the predictive powers of Greenspan. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 01:00
blooper (Sharefin) ID#207145: - Look at chart of 1973--74. Tomorrow is no big deal. 50% haircut coming.
Am waiting to buy gold. Cash and gold. One may have a different perspective about things. Otherwise why do we beat our gums so much?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:56
Wizened (Peutz apologists) ID#242303: - Peutz has been calling for the crash for the last two years , if I remember correctly, on this forum.
Reports of my death may be premature, but EVENTUALLY they will be correct.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:55
RJ (..... Gianni Dioro .....) ID#411259: -
I am saying that the sale at $329 was made for whatever reason the Canadians decided was prudent at the time. If the POG had gone up, this option would not be open to them. They would then be required to deliver metal from stores or production. They would look like bumbling fools and would be run out on a rail like the greedy brazen wanton sodomites they are.
If, however, the POG drops, there is no need to go into inventories to deliver. I believe the deciding factor would be the cost of the gold in the vaults against the cost of buying it on the open market in addition to any associated convenience factors. If they deliver from the vaults, there is nothing preventing them from immediately replacing the gold they shipped with new gold at a much lower price. They buy and sell like the rest and, yes, they do speculate. I cannot label this latest Canadian move a speculation because I don’t know the inner workings of that particular deal. But many folks hereabouts don’t really understand how liquid the market is and how crucial to the equation forward sales are.
I know for a fact that the Russians were short palladium in 1997 preceding most of the news releases saying that palladium may not ship for awhile. Hell, the Russians were buying physical palladium from my company last year to complete deliveries
Forward sales are necessary and eternal.
As long as there is a marketplace
Forward sales will occur
PS
What about the long side of the contract? These are the true fools? These are the people who paid $329 up front. They could have simply waited and saved themselves 67 million dollars ( 101 million Canadian ) . But noooooooooooo, they had to lock in the price, yes? If the price had gone up, it is these who would be the anointed ones and ticker tape parades in their honor would be televised live.
For every seller of a contract, there is a buyer - two sides to every contract
It can even be said the net market sentiment in any given trade is zero.
How is it that the sell side of the contract became evil on the eyes of many
But its partner, the long, without which the sale could not be made,
Is held aloft as a shining example of wise and brilliant economic policy
Even when it is the longs who bought to high?
A long does not exist in a vacuum, it is only ½ of the equation.
This, friends all
Is how these markets work
No wonder they don’t make much sense to many
Tis a knavish biz at times
Peopled by dull wit
Highly polished
Only to be presented to us
As sage and noble and wise
But oft it seems to me
There is no nobility
In trading noble metals
Tis so
But I did not make it so
I just take the ride
OK
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:55
Gianni Dioro__A (mozel, JTF, smoothing of cycles) ID#384350: - Is that just another coined phrase they would have us believe. They say the price of a loaf of bread in London remained constant for a good 300 years. Of course this was during a time when usury was not practised in England.
There must be better ways for farmers to defend themselves, such as altruistic fraternity ( help thy neighbour ) or even crop insurance. I will always see the futures markets as gambling first, hedging second.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:54
SWP1 (RE: Pawn America) ID#233199: - I don't follow the stock but I do occasionally go into their stores searching for bargains. I guess that would mean I'm researching the fundamentals.
Fundamentally - they s**k.
No bargains, no brainer... They may offer value to persons in deperate need, but they can't keep taking stuff in if they don't sell what they alredy have. If they can't offer good prices in good times, what are they going to offer - and to whom in a depression / recession?
...swp1
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:52
blooper (John Disney) ID#207145: - Copy cats get an F in my school. AK is better. Fires dirty, more stable.
Communism is bankrupt except in the Media, NE liberal schools, others: Northwestern, Wisconsin, Cal. Berkley. And in politics, mostly deemicrats, Press ownership. Hollywood ownership, actors. I know the movement. It is led by Lucifer.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:50
arden (Envy - your sign?) ID#257344: - Envy, Thank you for your input, I am still reflecting upon it. Tomorrow as your clock goes, August 15, is my fiftieth birthday. I have always used my birthday as a starting point for new events and a measuring point for my past endevours. Perhaps I am sensitive at this time of year but it seems to me that one whole hell of a lot of 'stuff' is gong on at this time and that it is the pivot point of my life. Again thank you for food for thought!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:49
Who Cares?__A (Farmer's Rebellion = Wizard of Oz) ID#242328: - Regarding the farmer's rebellion in the late 19th century -
Wizard of Oz = Wizard of Ounces, as in gold and silver
Yellow brick road, Emerald City, Wicked Witch of the East.
Here's a link to a coherent story -
http://www.uncg.edu/psc/courses/jktullos/policy/oz.html
Come on, you guys. No crash yet. Gazarelli is right. Puetz is
still wrong. 30-year rates below 5.5% by Christmas. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:47
blooper (EJ Grizz) ID#207145: - We buy gold when it bottoms, yes?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:43
sharefin (Rally time?) ID#284255: - Hong Kong up 5.5%
Looking at the charts on these pages:
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/YEuropean.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/YAsian.htm
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/YAmericas.htm
Gives me the impression that we are now due for a relief rally.
Whether it's a bear rally or bull rally,
Still remains to be seen.
My swing chart is confirming that the temp bottom is in.
How long for who knows.
But one can notice a quickening in the movements in time and price.
Also many markets indices etc. are in very tight lock-step formation.
A great time to straddle the market.
Prepared for violent moves in both direction.
Whichever way it goes it'll be volatile.
One thing that bemuses me?
How all the European markets rallied together yesterday.
And now the same in Asia today.
It almost seems orchestrated.
Do we now have a Global PPT.
Security in numbers?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:43
crazytimes (@ Hopefull) ID#342376: - There is a Kitcoite, I can't remember who, that is fond of Cash America symbol PWN. A company that owns and operates pawn shops throughout the US.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:41
Savage (@ HOPEFULL re your 00:18) ID#287223: - My 96 year old ( razor-sharp ) gramma says ...klumpit ( junkyards ) , repair businesses, and hot dog shops............Also, VERY high- priced restaurants ( the RICH always need a special place ) ....NOTE: Middle of the Road non-essential businesses went DOWN...
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:40
JTF (I think the benefit of derivatives is to level out the cycles) ID#57232: - RJ: I think you and Gianni Dioro are both right. It all depends on the time scale. Derivatives are highly useful instruments, as you righfully point out, because they can be used to protect farmers or fishermen from financial disaster -- by hedging. I think derivatives trading goes back hundreds of years -- to the Dutch, IMHO.
But derivatives can also be used for speculation, or to control markets outright if enough wealth is available. So -- Gianni Dioro is also right. Certainly the CB's are intentionally manipulating the price of gold with derivatives, not just hedging prices.
Perhaps the best way to look at derivatives is to consider them a powerful tool, like nuclear energy. Nuclear energy can by used to irradiate blood products to make them safe ( cobalt ) . Or - it can be used to annihilate whole cities. Any powerful tool can be used constructively or destructively.
Here's something where you can help all of us. Lets assume that countries in currency crises start selling US dollar reserves, instead of gold reserves. That might end the gold bear in a hurry, wouldn't it? Is part of the problem the dollar/gold carry? If gold is considered a less attractive money maker than the US dollar, gold holders will sell or lease gold to buy dollars. But -- one day the tables will turn, and people will start selling dollars, not gold.
So -- when do you think the US dollar will start to drop? Soon? Given the extensive use of the dollar as a reserve currency, I would guess the process will have a positive feedback effect, accelerating the process once it begins. Things might move rather quickly, once the US dollar starts to drop in earnest. Wasn't too swift for the US FED in its infinite wisdom to remain the world's reserve currency.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:37
arden (RJ -Go to the wilderness for a sign.) ID#257344: - No my friend, the bear was only a symbol. I went into the wilderness to relax, get my thoughts collected and all of that. Our friend Cherokee would understand exactly what happened. I went to catch a few fish for dinner and to enjoy my new surroundings. That I did, but out of that came a sign, at least to some. It is the same kind of sign like your appropriately named aviary friends who will leave your nest only to fly higher and further and upward and onward! I have had my 'sign' and you shall soon have yours as your feathered friends fly away from the shackles of restraint and soar to their true value in the universe! What is the Wall Street Journal anyway?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:34
Flash (SE Asian muslims restless?) ID#301318: - A few hours ago on the BBC World Service Eastern news round-up it was
reported that:-
The US had asked the Philippine Government about security of the Embassy and the PI Govt had replied that it considered a risk of attack was pesent and was
putting on extra police presence.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:33
sharefin (Global Intelligence Update) ID#284255: - Chinese Insistence on Supporting the Yuan Masks Deeper Problems
As the Russian financial system crumbles, the focus of international
attention must remain on China. With Russia's economic future fairly
clear, the remaining major question in the global economy is whether and
how long the Chinese will manage to hold the line. The pivotal question
has become the future of the yuan. With the collapse of the rest of Asia's
currency structure, it would have seemed inevitable that China would be
forced to devalue its currency as well, in order to maintain a rough
competitiveness in the price of its exports. However, the Chinese
government has not only refused to devalue the yuan, but has made the
currency's defense a fundamental policy objective. Thus far, they appear
to have succeeded.
Appearances can, of course be deceiving. The yuan has already declined.
According to the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, the black market price in
of the yuan has fallen to 8.9 to the dollar, as compared to the official
rate of 8.6. This represents a decline of about 3.5 percent. Since the
Yuan is a controlled currency, there is a normal discount between the
street price and the official rate. But the rates began to gap last week,
amid rumors that the Chinese government would devalue the yuan in relation
to its coal exports. This rumor helped create the gap, since a partial
devaluation is hardly sustainable. The gap continued to widen, clearly
alarming the Chinese government.
In response to this, Beijing kicked off a vigorous campaign to stabilize
the yuan, issuing strong warnings to speculators. Officials reminded them
of the strength of the Chinese economy and of the willingness of the
Chinese government to defend the yuan. Liu Mingkang, deputy governor of
the People's Bank of China, warned speculators not to bet against China,
which he said still holds $140 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Hong
Kong's financial secretary warned that speculators attacking the Hong Kong
dollar would be similarly smashed, noting that the mainland's currency
reserves will defend the HK dollar. The Chinese ambassador to Tokyo took
up the cry as well. This warning was urgently repeated by other officials
and in the Chinese media in an orchestrated campaign.
One interesting question is who this warning was directed at. The yuan is
not traded on highly liquid markets, so arbitrage masters like George Soros
are hardly going to raid it. The mechanisms for a major move simply aren't
there. The real targets for this barrage of reassurances was not foreign
speculators but domestic Chinese, who have been scrambling to buy hard
currencies in anticipation of devaluation. Earlier this month, new
regulations were put into effect which stated that Chinese financial
institutions would have their operations suspended if they permitted
customers to illegally purchase foreign currency. Chinese citizens need
government issued permission to purchase and hold foreign currency.
The mystery here is: Why is the Chinese government waging an international
campaign to convince its own citizenry not to dump the yuan for dollars?
Given control mechanisms, foreign speculators can't force the yuan down
without the government's agreement. Speculators are not the major force in
the black market. So issuing statements in Tokyo is fairly pointless.
Vigorous enforcement of currency laws should be enough. Yet, facing a
domestic problem, the Chinese government is conducting an international
campaign.
Explaining this strange behavior requires us to consider a broader oddity.
What is the big deal in devaluing the currency? With the rest of Asia's
currencies slashed, devaluing the yuan would seem a logical and prudent
move. After all, China is an export oriented economy and the artificial
inflation of its currency relative to its competitors' and markets'
currencies places China at a disadvantage. Indeed, the Bank of China vowed
last week to increase its support of exports with favorable financing
arrangements, because China needed foreign trade to grow this year by 10
percent. Now, if that is the goal, then refusing to devalue seems not only
strange, but counterproductive. Again, what is the big deal? Chinese
explanations, including fear of inflation and a fear of weakening the rest
of Asia simply don't explain the refusal for even a modest readjustment in
currency levels.
So, we have two facts. First, the Chinese government is doing everything
it can to convince non-Chinese that China is not going to permit the yuan
to decline, in spite of the fact that foreigners have relatively little
influence over that decision. Second, the Chinese unwillingness to devalue
runs counter to the export obsessed Chinese economic strategy. Why defend
an arbitrary value for your currency when it will undermine your core
economic strategy? And why is China trying to convince foreigners that it
will not change a clearly counterproductive policy.
At the core of their argument is a key assertion, made over and over again,
that they hold $140 billion in foreign currency. It is this claim that
convinces the world that China will float above the Asian disaster. It is
this assertion that encourages U.S. companies to continue investments in
China; to continue to finance Chinese commercial paper that is dollar
denominated; that allows non-Chinese to do dollar denominated business with
China. If that claim is false, then the infrastructure of Chinese export
trade will begin to evaporate.
China is desperately trying to convince outsiders of its reserve level, not
because of its currency concerns, but to persuade them to continue carrying
out dollar denominated trade. The current campaign has little to do with
the yuan and everything to do with the claim of massive reserves. Yet
reports in the past two days report the Chinese selling yen fairly
intensively, in spite of its depressed price. We think this has less to do
with the Chinese evaluation of the yen and more to do with the need to sell
foreign currencies in order to cover debts.
In other words, we are not at all convinced that China has reserves of $140
million. We do not know the true level of Chinese reserves, but we do know
that the universal characteristic of the Asian crisis is that government
claims on currency reserves, on banking liquidity and on bad loans and so
on, have in every case proven to be false. We see no reason to believe
that China is the exception. Indeed, China is perhaps the least
transparent and least regulated banking system. We don't think that the
Chinese have anywhere near $140 million in reserves. If they did, they
would ignore speculators, they would carry out a modest devaluation, and
they wouldn't give it a second thought.
We are becoming convinced that the Chinese are attempting to convince
foreigners that they are in better shape than is actually the case in order
to maintain the trade facilities they desperately need to maintain their
economy's stability. Bellicose threats, inflexible currency policies,
unrealistic growth targets, and obsession with exports even at losses, do
not add up to the image China is trying to project. Countries with $140
billion in hard currency reserves don't behave inflexibly. Countries in
financial trouble, trying to convince outsiders that there are no problems,
do behave this way. That's why they are cracking down on every citizen
holding foreign currency. Not because they are rolling in money, but
because they are running out.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:33
Gianni Dioro__A (mozel, futures markets) ID#384350: - I saw somewhere on the web a page that talked about a farmers' rebellion in the US. I think it was around the 1880's. Maybe it was the La Grange movement. Anyway these farmers were convinced that the futures exchanges had been used ( intentionally or not ) to lower prices for agricultural commodities to the point where they lost their farms. One of the planks they had was to eliminate the use of futures ( forward ) contracts on grains.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:31
Envy (@arden - sign) ID#219363: - If you want a sign, here's one -
Today, the fourteenth day of August, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy four, Congress authorized US citizens to own Gold.
It's also the day, in 1846, that a man by the name of Henry David Thoreau was jailed for tax evasion.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:31
sharefin (It's old but it's good - CIA) ID#284255: - http://www.wired.com/news/news/politics/story/12122.html
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:30
Gene (Does W. B. Yates seem up to date?) ID#390275: - The Second Coming by W. B. Yates
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosened, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:25
mozel (@Gianni @Bingo) ID#153102: - @Gianni The Futures market has more liquidity than a market with just producers and users. The speculator prevents the well financed big users from depressing the price to unrealistic levels for extended periods. Not perfectly, I'm sure, but better so than in their absence. The regulated futures market may operate as you propose, however. Expand, if you will.
@Bingo I'll see what I can do.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:21
EJ (Hopefull) ID#45173: - The process has begun. But there's a lot of road between here and default. I need to think through the various economic and political moves the US might make along the way.
-EJ
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:20
crazytimes (Good to hear from you EJ) ID#342376: - About a year or so ago, I subscibed to a few permabulls like Mark Skousen and John Dessauer Newsletters. I cancelled subscriptions on them when it became clear they had tunnel vision. I happened to get out their card with the weekly update number, it was still good for Mark Skousen's. His tone was bleak but he didn't say sell on anything. He just got back from some money conference and to his surprise, there were quite a few bears there. He talked about a few stocks that have fallen out of bed but then said he still feels they are great buys now. Unbelievable. These permabulls will have no newsletters in a years time. I imagine these Permabulls are talking up gold just a little bit for insurance purposes.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:18
JTF (Thoughts about Dollar and Gold sales) ID#57232: - All: We know that Russia has been selling dollars and gold to stabilize the Russian Ruble. For the last two years or so, we have heard reports of countries selling gold, and gold goes down. The only time I can recall the US dollar dropping significantly because of dollar reserve sales was in 1994 during the previous Mexican crisis.
My point is this -- for whatever reason -- the time for gold sales to depress the price of gold may be at an end, because countries in crisis may be tempted to sell their dollar reserves instead. Selling dollar reserves, rather than gold reserves will clearly have a bullish effect on gold.
We do not need a dollar crisis for the value of a dollar to go down. All we need is a big international crisis of some kind where the primary reserve currency to be sold is US dollars, not gold.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:18
RJ (..... arden .....) ID#411259: -
Did the bear have a copy of the WSJ or Investors Business Daily tucked under one arm? ( leg, paw, hoof, member? )
This detail will help in discerning the true nature of your encounter and towards which great portends it points.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:18
HopeFull (Any ideas what businesses might be good to be in when all this hits?) ID#402148: - Debt collection? Vice? Pawn shop?
Who made all the money in the depression?
HB
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:17
John Disney__A (Keep the Golden Retriever..) ID#24135: - For all ..
Just read that stratfor thingy that says China is
Bull sh!tting about having 140 billion reserves .. they
may not have anything near that. oboyoboyoboy.
For Bloops ..
F-16 will always beat MIG-29 .... In the Movies
and only with TOM CRUISE pilot ..
Oh .. and also IN YOUR DREAMS.
We're talking about a GREAT depression type
aircraft here .. just like AK-47 .. CHEAP GOOD and
NOT for the MOVIES.
For Technical people..
Advanced Get .. says I should sell everything I have.
Except my dogs.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:17
EJ (Summer Daze -By Kathryn M. Welling) ID#45173: - Almost every bear market in the memory of investing man and woman has been heralded by rising interest rates. But not all. There is -- though we hate to mention it in a publication not routinely shielded from innocent eyes -- the awful example of the 'Thirties, when a truly depressing deflation in the economy and sinking interest rates proved no impediment at all to a string of nasty bear markets.
wsj.com/edition/current/articles/SB902529867460326500.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:16
Gianni Dioro__A (RJ ) ID#384350: - Your premise is that they never made delivery, that they were just speculating in the gold market.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:13
HopeFull (EJ) ID#402148: - When you think it starts?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:13
arden (Is this a sign? ohhhhhhh) ID#257344: - Today I went fishing, to clear my mind and get some perspective on what's going on. Caught too many trout. Including two big cutthroat trout. After bushing my way back to my truck through thick oak brush and grasses over my head, I headed home. Very quickly I saw a bear! I stopped my truck and backed up. It was a bear. We looked at each other for a minute or two, then we went on our seperate ways.
My friends, if you are inclined to view omens and visions and such as 'signs', of portending the future, then sleep on this one. I haven't seen a bear in the wild in thirty two years! I sleep well tonight.
And as somone here once said, Get Real, Get Gold!
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:12
EJ (High Anxiety) ID#45173: - As market gurus debate, investors watch nervously after last week's slide
http://interactive.wsj.com/edition/current/articles/BarronsCoverMain.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:11
RJ (..... Gianni Dioro .....) ID#411259: -
Tis more akin to the fisherman promising to deliver a boatload of fish for $100,000, and collecting the money today. Other fishermen do the same, so all have cash to outfit their boats and pay their deckhands and buy hooks and line and bait and fuel and food for all to eat.
When fishing season is over, the abundance of fish drives market prices down to $50,000 per boatload. No worries, our wise friends already collected their 100K, who cares what they sell for today? Can these fishy fellows make a profit at 50K per boatload? Some won’t and will die. The supply of fish will dwindle, prices will rise. Before long a boatload may be worth $150K and the whole process starts again.
Yes, I would say it is more like that.
PS
Canada has mucho gold-in-the-ground. Besides, they can go the open market, buy the gold for $285, and then deliver this gold to their buyers. With nary a single ounce of Canadian gold ever leaving the vaults or crossing Canadian borders. So they sold at $329, they buy at $285 = $44 ( less a buck or two in costs ) net profit per ounce. $42 x 1.6 million = 67.2 million dollars profit. Best part of this scenario is that they still end up holding their own gold.
Central Banks are traders too.
Would you say this is a wise move?
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:11
Gianni Dioro__A (JTF, Futures Markets) ID#384350: - In addition to what you said, I believe one of the main functions of futures markets is to depress commodities to the point where producers are run out of business. Then to pick up the pieces are the Big Banks, Trusts, Corporations and the people behind them. People like Soros, Bronfman, Von Finck, Buffett and the like.
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:04
EJ (crazytimes ) ID#45173: - Been constantly on the road. Just back from DC. Read today's Barrons on the plane. Very bearish. Editorial says ideal economic conditions like those we ahve today -- low interest rates, high employment, high equity and real estate prices, low inflation -- have existed only once before in history... just before the crash of '29.
But it's not '29. It's '98. The USA is run like a debt financed business. Yes it's producing a lot of revenue ( GDP ) , but it's growing more slowly than ever. What happens when deflation hits from Asia, corporate profits fall rapidly, tax revenues fall, and Asia and Europe pull out of US dollars, treasuries, and equities? I am now expecting what I have always before thought impossible. The US will default on foreign debt. The dollar will be crushed.
I know it sounds crazy, but that's what I see as the end result of a rapid deflation of assets and a calling in of foreign debt we can't pay.
The result, dollars with little buying power, even in a deflation. What's an American to do? Buy euro bonds and gold.
-EJ
- Date: Fri Aug 14 1998 00:02
Grizz (Many of the posters here gather information from all over) ID#424394: - We pick up clues from hither and yon. It all gets stored upstairs.
Behind our rational consciousness our mind is playing with patterns and trends, sifting through seemingly unrelated pieces of data.
For some people out of all this comes a feeling - a sense
that something terrible is about to happen.
When pinned down to explain why - they are at a loss.
All the little pieces that come to mind seem so inconsequential.
A critic can tear these feelings apart with cold rational analysis.
But the feeling is still there - brooding, persistent.
That is perhaps what defines much of our intelligence and our survival.
A hunch. A gut feeling. Woman's intuition. Call it whatever.
Our charts, graphs, computers and spinmeisters may minimize it.
But it has contributed to our not being extinct - yet.
Perhaps we should go camping by ourselves - solo.
No kids, friends, or other people to interfere.
And just listen.
I have found that it takes at least a week of solitude,
and sometimes if the previous stress was high enough, two weeks
before my mind quiets down enough to hear these other thoughts.
Then maybe all of this racket we have been subjecting ourselves to
subsides into the background and it doesn't feel so ominous after all.
We just had to get away for a while and relax and put some distance between the daily minutia and the larger perspective.
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