Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:55
tolerant1 (aurator, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...these may help re: film curiosity) ID#373284:: http://www.pentax.com/pentax/discuss_archives/pentax-discuss.9610/0679.html

http://www.outsidethelines.com/CameraBody.html

http://www.nyip.com/ - look for article Digital Primer

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:47
oris (TYoung) ID#238422:: Hi, brother Tom. I feel you are still concerned...
You know, sometimes deerhunter watches a lot of deer tracks
and no physical deer, but everybody knows that deer is there.
So, you sit, try not to move and look through the scope
from time to time. A lot of trees prevents you from observing
the whole area...you got other hunters all over the place...
and some of them are real good and know where to sit.

Anyway, what I'm talking about? ..Let's just watch...
I know deer is there and deer hunting season is coming.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:47
newtron (ROR please don't bate the Bear Like that ! Rant WARNING !) ID#388209:: The dejavoodoometor just went off the scale !
In 1975 when Hanoi Jane's commie bastard friends were rolling their tanks into Saigon & Tip the bulbous nosed know nothing running the House & the pack of sniveling commie simps on the staff of the democratically controlled Judiciary committee ( a la Hillary ) lead by that rodent profile in courage Rodino brought down Nixon at the height of the cold war over a third rate botched case of political espionage there was no 2nd guessing from your liberal camp. in modern times operhaps only Ike, Peanut Man & Dumb Jerry did not do ten times worse than Nixon. The good of the country was not even on the radar screen. It was truly a silent coup by a vicious minority clicque of a popular sitting President who was elected by a land slide as opposed to Slick with his 40% socialist symp vote that put him in 1st place in a three way race with a Sr over the hill viagra addict non-entity & a loonatic.
One thing is for sure. Sentiment in favor of The Leading Sexual Predator of the Free World disapates rapidly from here. Do not underestimate the affect this will have on the major incremental marginal momentum factor holding up this market. Foreign money will hit the exits as this vulnerability becomes palpable. Slick's supporters in the House know three things : Klinton is a pathological liar ; he is lying & his fall is too big to run out from under so the only strategy for the moment is to sit tight, close your eyes & prey for a strategy of stone wall til after the November election. If not, the democrats will be a minority party or it could spell the end of the party as we have known it sinve Wilson. I still do not believe he will give his testimony on the 17th as promised. The S&P is more likely to hit 10,000 before the 17th ! If he gives his testimony without asserting a broad & virtual blanket claim of Executive Privledge it's game, set & match Monsieur Starr !
1/3 of the country are mezmerized by the Gantryesque nature of this rogue & could only be brought out of their trance by Gabrial's last trumpet blast ; 1/3 are as dumb as dirt & could't tell the difference between a soccer mom & Phyllis Schafly & 1/3 know the real Slick Willie as the evil little miscreant & criminal that he is, making Tricky Dick look like a virtual choir boy by comparison, no kidding.
But sentiment in the press has changed abruptly tonight as Monica has bared her soul before the Grand Jury. & Slick's rotttys go into full sutts & nutts attack mode. This will severely blow back this time ! Last night Dede Meyers rang the opning bell with a flip on Klinton exclaiming that the dna on the dress was for real, otherwise Klinton would already be ought front protesting that there was Zero possibility of a dna match. Tonight on that silly Washinton Week In Review the tone of all of fabian symp reporters was terribly negative in a way that has never been seen for the Boy Prez. The poison has reached a critical mass, even in these liberal & pseudosophisticated circles . His presidency is toast & for just cause other than infidelity & obstruction regarding it. I believe he will either stonewall the appearance, or start a war, or appear with a blanket asertion of or to announce a protracted appeal of bogus privledge, anything but answer the questions under oath.
ROR, my friend this a true test of the qestion of whether this once grat country is goverened by the rule of law or the Banna Republic laws of the jungle that prevail in the heart of darkness the way places like Arkansaw & the Congo are some times ruled.
Sorry for the Rant.

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:37
Spock (Beaming Up now...........) ID#210114:: Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:37
Spock (China Devaluation) ID#210114:: For those who thing gold will rise with China devaluation, think again. IMVHO gold will tank with the Asian currencies just as it has one in the past.

Furthermore, people will dishoard rather than purchase the noble metal.

Remember Korea

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:32
aurator (skrch... skrch....smile please....you're on candid aurator) ID#250121:: Bill2j
Thanks for your reply. Your observations square with mine. Digital is almost there in terms of quality, but there is still the high price barrier to equip oneself, and the need for electricity and poota/tv to view may delay universal acceptance for a while. Would appreciate info on relative dpi Silver Halide vs Digital or a url where I could discover same.

I can go to the corner dairy ( store ) and buy a throw away 20 picture cardboard camera for a couple of bucks.

Again, I appreciate the info, it is a piece of my latest project. How to up/download thousands of high quality images sufficient for reasonable printing at a thousand different sites. She's a head-scratcher..

.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:27
Bill2j (@Aurator) ID#259400:: Then after all that rambling I didn't answer your question. Long and the short of it is they look pretty good. In many cases better. The old way was to take a really good photo and make a negative of it and burn it to a metal plate. Each generation lost definition. The new way is to take a digital image and laser image it directly onto the plate. Basically no loss of definition. In many cases the results are as good. Top, top quality is still better with silver based mediums. The rest is easier, cheaper and better with digital and will only get better. Shoot, we have $249 dollar 25 color tv's.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:21
Jack (The sellers of gold have to) ID#252127:: show financial television why the arguments against gold are fallacious.
This can be done handedly on the boob tube, but the prime time brokerage advertisers supporting the stock market will not allow it.
It is a question of who has the deepest pockets.
The WGC is failing its job bigtime with their balanced approach toward gold by not castigating the system and is screwing its members.
Or is the WGC and its major members part of a cabal adjusting the price to their eventual profit.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 23:18
Bill2j (@Aurator) ID#259400:: Digital photography is almost there. It is too late on a friday night and have had too many Gins to discuss dpi and resolutions but the long and the short of it is that the future of photography will be on a 3.5 floppy and not a silver emulsion based piece of paper. Top, top quality, agency quality photos are still better on silve based paper. Acceptable, newsletter quality photos are here. The quality and resolutions of the floppy based photos will get better. The expectations and the levels of acceptability of the floppy based photography will come down. Sometime in the next 24=36 months the lines will cross and silver based photography will go the way of the dinosaur. Coffee table quality photograpy will be silver based for many years to come. All the rest will go digital. I can hire an 18 year old computer nerd type with no skill and he can be taught to manipulate images on a computer screen to meet the most exacting of demands. Can't do that with film. Whatever is there when the shutter is clicked is there. The end result rests in the skill and the eye of the photographer that clicks the shutter. Go digital and any amateur can alter the image to anyone's taste. Scary, but true. Another skill line of work passe away.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:58
dirt (Buckler is right ) ID#268404:: Why are the Australians, Japanese, Chinese, and South East Asians not buying gold ? Don't they see these Bullish Charts ?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:57
Spock (Tantalus Rex) ID#210114:: Correct. Your cure a depression with inflation. Not a problem if you are in a DEFLATIONARY depression, then INFLATION only takes you back up to the ORIGINAL PRICE LEVELS.

Secondly, its a matter of values. I think 1 million unemployed is a greater evil that 10% inflation, but as I have said, you won't egt 10% inflation if you are in a deflationary depression.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:57
Tantalus__A (Californicate, USA declares a $US4+Billion budget surplus. TV shows a couple) ID#374204:: w/6-12 children. Husband says i don't know who to thank.
ANS: The rest of us, you arse h**********************le.

GOLDENbear state is at the epicenter of the coming quake.
Surrounded by Pacific Rim, Canada, & Mexico.

Any economic concerns here, fellow GOLDEN state citizens?
ANS: Doan worry! Be happy! Life be goood! We in Jamaica, mon.

Gold is in the tank. Woe is me!
Despair!
But Capitulation? NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:54
Spock (RETIRED SOLDIER) ID#210114:: Thanx for the editing advice. No offence taken.

Live Long and Prosper

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:41
Spock (Why don't they advetise) ID#210114:: With gold at such relatively low prices, why don't gold and bullion companies advertise on TV etc

Picture of shining gold coins and bullion might very well boost sales.

The previous post's address was;

http://www.smh.com.au/news/9808/08/business/index.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:39
Spock (Despite the Title, This is a Good Article for Gold.) ID#210114:: INVESTING

The Ugly Stepsister

Has gold lost its shine? The market certainly thinks so. But
BARBARA DRURY reports there may still be opportunities for the
smart investor.

There was a time when as good as gold was as good as it got. But not any
more. In 20 years, gold has gone from being a prized asset to just another
commodity.

Will it ever regain its privileged status?

Like most commodities, gold is in a slump. Over the past 18 months the US
gold price has fallen from around $US370 to around $US285. However, the
slide in the Australian dollar means the Australian gold price has held up better.

Recent falls in the gold price have been linked to the fall of the yen against the
US dollar. But, Warwick Morris, head of bullion and commodities at
Macquarie Bank, says gold tends to respond to different benchmarks in
various markets quite quickly. So while it is vulnerable to the yen/US dollar
exchange rate today, it could be inflation or commodity prices tomorrow.

But these are short-term trends. In Morris's view, the main driver of gold
prices since the early 1980s has been the demonetisation of gold and its
relegation to the status of a commodity. A succession of central banks,
including our own, have sold down gold reserves. Even now, one of the
uncertainties overhanging the market is talk that the European Central Bank is
considering lowering its benchmark for gold assets and selling some reserves.

However, the central bank sales have been relatively small and the effect
largely psychological. In terms of supply and demand, only 2000 tonnes of
gold is produced each year and demand is strong, with 80 per cent going into
jewellery.

Morris sees some hope for gold in the narrowing of reserve ( or safe )
currencies, set to increase with European monetary union which will replace
currencies like the German mark, and a narrowing of reserve asset classes in
an increasingly uncertain world.

You can't just hold US dollars and there aren't that many assets to hold, says
Morris. He believes this may lead to a new role for gold as a financial asset,
especially in Asian economies whose currencies have been trashed.

So while the short-term trend for gold is probably downwards, it still deserves
a place in a diversified investment portfolio.

SHARES
Shares provide a low-cost entry into gold and traditionally show a multiplier
effect when the gold price is rising or falling. In recent years, the ASX gold
index has tracked the gold price down. From a high of 2500 in 1994, it hit
bottom near 850 last year and is now around 1025.

Geoff Bell of Prudential-Bache says Australian gold stocks have been oversold
relative to their fundamental value and to American goldminers. Australian
producers have used the downturn to increase production and cut costs while
takeover activity has further rationalised the sector.

Cathy Stern of Salomon Smith Barney says investors are focused on costs and
profitability rather than production levels. She says weak gold prices have
resulted in a lack of investment in the sector and exploration budgets have been
pared back, despite robust demand.

Bell takes a cyclical view of the gold sector, which he says is in the grip of a
bear market. While the short-term outlook is not good and there could be
further weakness in Asia, Bell says there is selective value for investors with a
long-term view.

Analysts agree that for gold stocks to improve, gold prices need to stabilise.
Increased corporate activity would also add some punch. Brokers' picks
include Normandy, Resolute, Acacia and Newcrest.

BULLION
For investors who find gold shares too volatile, an alternative is gold bullion.
Unlike shares, bullion can be held in your hand and admired, although it is best
stored in a bank safety deposit box.

A troy ounce of pure gold is about the size of a square of chocolate, although
the current price is a much richer $488. The buy-back price for a one-ounce
bar is about $468. Investors can purchase as little as a quarter-ounce bar up to
a 1kg bar, with the price per ounce decreasing slightly for the larger bar.

Jane Simpson, bullion manager for Australian Bullion Co, says investors can
buy bullion physically over the counter or on account where the company
stores the bullion on your behalf. The bullion can be sold back to the dealer,
hopefully when a profit has been made.

While bullion may look solid, its value is still linked to the vagaries of the gold
price.

Australian investors have the additional uncertainty of exchange rate
fluctuations. Over the past decade, an investment in gold bullion has provided
negative returns, although traders have been able to make short-term profits.

Previously investors could count on gold prices moving up when share prices
fell or war broke out. These days, revelations about President Clinton's sexual
peccadilloes move the gold price. So, unless you are a trader with nerves of
steel, bullion is best viewed as a long-term investment.

COINS
While bullion prices move with spot gold prices, gold coins offer a potential
premium for rarity and condition. But there are different types of gold coins -
not all worth hoarding.

Coins which sell for bullion value only - because they are in poor condition or
common - are called bullion coins.

Numismatic coins are valued according to rarity and condition. An 1870
Sydney Mint sovereign in good condition but slightly worn has a bullion value
of $120 and sells for $350. Its uncirculated equivalent sells for $5000.

There are also special edition collectors' coins such as the Sydney 2000
Olympic coins. These are produced with 10g of 24 carat gold and have a
bullion value of $152. But they are a limited edition of 30,000 and sell at a
premium, taking the issue price to $380. The first coin, released last October,
sold out. It now sells for $495, a return of 30 per cent over 10 months.

But before you rush to buy the next Olympic gold coin due for release next
month, Robert Jaggard of coin dealer Jaggard's warns only a small percentage
of these special edition coins prove to be good investments.

Jaggard says old rare coins are the best investment and you should look for
quality and rarity. He says at the top end of the market, rare coins have
averaged returns of 15 to 20 per cent a year over 20 years.

JEWELLERY
Gold jewellery's value is determined as much by fashion as gold prices. New
gold jewellery loses 32 per cent of its value the moment a buyer leaves the
store because of sales tax. The lack of an easily accessed second-hand market
makes it difficult to sell and get your money back, let alone make a profit.

David Bubb, head of jewellery at auctioneers and valuers Lawsons, says gold
jewellery is fetching $10 to $12 a gram at auction ( $310 to $373 per troy
ounce ) , plus a 10 per cent buyer's premium. But there are exceptions,
depending on the dictates of fashion. At present, the best sellers are curb and
gate pattern bracelets with heart-shaped clasps, gold hoop earrings and gold
bangles. Unfortunately, investors trying to find a bargain at auction tend to
make the same mistakes as many share investors. They pile in when gold prices
are high, and stay away when gold prices are low and jewellery can be bought
for a song. Which is pretty much the situation now.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:35
goldfevr (floating sinking currency god) ID#434108:: US dollar 'stabs up'
in its last
exhausting...dying..... 'hurrah!'

masquerade
in shades
of truth postponed

gold will rise again
triumphant
on honor's
eternal
throne

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:34
Spock (More Currency stuff) ID#210114:: Region fears new currency slide

By JASON KOUTSOUKIS

Fears that a renewed slide in the value of the yen could trigger a
damaging new round of Asian currency devaluations swept the
region yesterday as financial markets rejected Japanese Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi's economic rescue package as being too
lame.

Last night the yen fell through 145.5 to the US dollar from 144.5
on Thursday while, in Hong Kong, panicked investors dumped
stock, taking to more than 10 per cent the week's sharemarket
retreat.

The Hang Seng Index lost a further 3.4 per cent yesterday, to hit
its lowest point since January 1995 and is now more than 50 per
cent below its pre-October level when the region's markets went
into a tailspin.

The yen's slide also exposed the vulnerability of the Australian
dollar to events in Asia, with the currency plunging more than
three-quarters of a US cent to a low of 60.01 US cents - it's
lowest since 29 June.

In Tokyo the Nikkei 225 stock Average remained almost
unchanged despite the currency turmoil, dropping 47.05 points,
or 0.3 per cent to 15829 as Mr Obuchi offered no surprise
measures to boost the economy.

Mr Obuchi, as widely expected, said in his first policy statement
to parliament that the Government's tax cuts would considerably
exceed 6 trillion yen ( $A68.6 billion ) , and vowed to jump-start
the economy within two years.

He also repeated his pledges to push through an extra 10 trillion
yen spending package and shut down financially crippled banks.

In the recent upper house election, voters delivered a message
to us that they are very concerned about the economy, Mr
Obuchi said in yesterday's address. Responding to these
voices, I have made it the priority of this administration to repair
the economy, and will tackle the issue resolutely, he said.

Further signs of the tension building throughout the region came
as the Chinese yuan fell to a five-year low on Shanghai's black
market amid speculation Beijing will devalue the currency.

The yuan fell to 9.2 to the US dollar, about 9 per cent less than
its official rate and the weakest since China last devalued the
currency in 1993, according to black market traders.

And China's Jiji News reported People's Bank of China
governor as hinting a possible devaluation of the yuan.

The foreign exchange rate is fundamentally a result of the
market, and I don't rule out the possibility of a small adjustment
of China's currency peg system to the US dollar, Dai said.

He said the foreign exchange rate is determined by China's
macro-economy and trade balance ( but ) . . . pegging the
currency to the dollar is not something China does
unreasonably.

If China devalues the yuan to make the country's exports more
competitive, that could mean the Hong Kong dollar's
15-year-old peg to the US dollar would also be severed.

And that would almost certainly inspire a wave of further
devaluations in other Asian countries in order for their exports to
remain competitive with Chinese and Japanese exports.

Adding to the concern was the Vietnamese Government's
announcement that it had already devalued its currency, the
dong.

To spur exports, the State Bank of Vietnam lowered the rate
around which the dong is allowed to trade to 12,998 to the US
dollar from 11,814, according to foreign bankers in Hanoi.

Australian markets continued to trade with caution yesterday as
the All Ordinaries suffered its fourth consecutive fall, dropping
3.4 points to close at 2599 points.

The All Ords has lost more than 100 points since the start of the
week, shaken by the nervous Asian signals and Tuesday's
300-point fall on Wall Street.

Traders said the fate of the Australia dollar remained at the
mercy of the yen.

with AGENCIES

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:32
Leland (The U.S. is Buying, Asia is Selling. Not Just Goods, But Deflation, Too.) ID#316193:: http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr980807.html#STORY2

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:31
Spock (China to de-value a little bit'.) ID#210114:: Global gloom deepens
By PETER WITTS

08aug98

THE crisis of confidence gripping global financial markets worsened
yesterday after investors were left unconvinced that Japan's beleaguered
economy could be revived and speculation grew of another round of Asian
currency devaluations.

Talk of currency devaluations was also heightened after a report in a
Chinese weekly newspaper quoted a People's Bank governor as saying the
Government could adjust China's currency, the yuan, a little bit.

An address on economic reform yesterday by Japanese Prime Minister
Keizo Obuchi failed to convince investors the Japanese Government's
policies would drag the world's second largest economy out of its worst
recession in 50 years.

As a consequence, the Japanese yen fell heavily, dragging other regional
currencies lower with it, including the Australian dollar, which hit a six-week
low.

Analysts said there was disappointment that Mr Obuchi had merely
reiterated the reform measures known to the markets since early in the
week; most notably that the Government would cut income and business
taxes by more than 6 trillion yen ( $69 billion ) , embark on a Y10 trillion
spending package and close troubled banks.

Colonial State Bank chief economist Craig James said there was little more
the Japanese Government could do at this stage, and suggested currency
markets be patient. However, he admitted markets were unlikely to react
well, particularly as the tax cuts would not take effect until next year.

IBJ currency analyst Scott Lewis said there was little sympathy for the
Japanese Government's policies and the yen was sold heavily.

The US dollar touched Y145.27 before closing at Y144.98, up from Y144.65
previously and only Y2 below the eight-year high of Y146.78 seen in
mid-June.

Investors sold the local dollar as well, as Australia's export health is
dependent on Japan, our biggest trading partner. The dollar fell as low as
US60c before closing at US60.23c, from US60.65c on Thursday.

Mr Lewis said the market was nervous heading into last night's US session.
The yen is still weak and that is keeping pressure on the Aussie dollar.
There are bids at US60c but it could go below there, he said.

The Singapore dollar, the Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht also fell
because Japan is seen as a key player in the region, heavily involved in the
banking and financing sectors.

Westpac head of distribution Wayne Raven said the markets had erred on
the side of giving Japan the benefit of the doubt over the past few months,
but questioned how long their patience would last if the Japanese economy
remained sluggish.

He said there was a chance the US dollar would go higher still, and if that
occurred then there would be flow-on effects throughout Asia.

Another surge in the US dollar to, say, above Y150, would place pressure
on the Chinese Government to devalue its currency to keep its economy
competitive. That in turn would increase the likelihood of the Hong Kong
dollar � which is under selling pressure � being devalued.

And that would lead to another round of devaluations in the other Asian
currencies, Mr Raven said.

It was the devaluations of South-East Asian currencies in July last year
which acted as the catalyst for the region's rapid downturn as investors
pulled money out.

Yesterday the Hong Kong share market fell more than 3 per cent to a 3�
year low, but a spokesman for the Hongkong & Shanghai Bank in Hong
Kong, David Hall, said the bank had confidence in the Hong Kong Monetary
Authority, which continued to claim it would not devalue.

However, ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said he expected the US dollar
to rise above Y150.

He believed it was unlikely there would be another round of currency
devaluations in South-East Asia, as most of those economies � with the
exception of Indonesia and Malaysia � had policies in place to improve their
poor trade positions.

The prime casualty of further yen weakness would be Japan, he said.

Mr James said further weakness in Japan would limit the dollar's ability to
move above US62c during the next six months.

But he suggested there would be positives for the economy, particularly
exports, if that were to happen.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:29
aurator (Digital Photography) ID#255284:: Bill2J
I was going to challenge you on the quality of digital photography, having thought that the resolutions obtainable were still very inferior. Then I had a look at this site

http://www.kodak.com/digitalImaging/samples/majesticPix.shtml

astonishing, but these are not original digital images

I was pricing The latest Hanimex TR ( ? ) digital camera offering two days ago, it was NZ$ 1069 + GST ( @12.5% ) ( US$551.60 ) then you gotta have a puta and some connection devices to download the images.Add on a hundred bucks here and there...

The digital quality is first rate for a puta screen, but I have just now forgotten the usual resolution of a colour photograph of standard ASA.

As a professional photo-industry guy, how good do these digital images look when printed out? I was looking too at colour laser printers for printing good quality images until I found an astonishingly good Epson colour inkjet that, using a glossy special paper produced near photo quality prints at half the price of the laser, but again, the originals were digitised slides, not digital photos..

Please, just how good is original digital photography?

I should like to hear more on this. TIA.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:19
goldfevr (Bill BUckler @ 22:05, the-privateer) ID#434108:: Thank-you for an excellent summation & review,
and clarifying perspective...
on what is, and has been,
going on.

Your web-site,
is truely an excellent contribution,
to the students, investors, and concerned citizens -
of sound-money,
the world over.

Thank-you, sincerely,
David Blair Macrory

P.S.
In previous recent posts,
I've addressed the fact that:
'the volume'
in mining shares ( -XAU components/for example ) ,
is very low...vlv...
very low volume
...
this is a classic/ideal technical signal...
of impending change in trend,

in this case - in precious metals...

The bottoming formation in gold & silver,
which began late last year,
&/or - since January '98.....
... is completing itself

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:14
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (DANKE BILL BUCKLER!!) ID#431263:: For a most clear and illuminating presentation of THE FACTS!! Gold has been above its January LOWS for the past 7 MONTHS! And despite all the gloom and doom talk of gold in double digits by some here, it's building a huge double bottom base that will serve as a launchpad to multi-year highs once the ASIAN crisis BOTTOMS out and the Dollar/Yen crisis TOPS OUT!! PATIENCE is the name of the game now as gold appears to be locked in a narrow $20 trading range for the forseeable future!! NO RUN-AWAY BULL!! AND NO RUN-AWAY BEAR!! UNTIL.......THE BIG ONE which , of course, will let you in only at much higher prices, IF AT ALL!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:13
Spock (Beware the China Card) ID#210114:: Silver down sharply in Europe, gold holds in range
11:21 a.m. Aug 07, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, Aug 7 ( Reuters ) - Silver prices fell sharply in afternoon trade on Friday
on long liquidation by investment funds as gold remained in a range and faced
pressure from the yen, dealers and analysts said.

Gold was last quoted at $286.10/$286.60 an ounce from the previous close in New
York at $285.70/$286.20.

Silver dropped after U.S. investment positions liquidated their long positions. It was
last quoted at $5.29/$5.32 an ounce from the previous close at $5.42/$5.45.

Analysts said silver's downwards move came after the metal failed to break above
$5.50.

``It was unable to get there because of the negative influence of gold and indirectly
the yen...I think they ( funds ) just had enough and we saw long liquidation,''
Macquarie Equities precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

Dealers said gold edged higher in the afternoon but remained tied in a range.

Bullion remained under pressure from the weak yen -- which edged towards
145.70 to the dollar in Europe in the afternoon -- and fears of Chinese devaluation,
dealers said.

The Japanese unit has fallen amid disappointment at Japanese Prime Minister Keizo
Obuchi's much-awaited policy speech to parliament.

Obuchi said he would need one to two years to revive the flagging Japanese
economy.

Bullion dealers have used dollar/yen as an indicator for gold during recent weeks on
the grounds that falls in the Japanese currency dampen demand by making gold
more expensive throughout Southeast Asia.

Dealers said concern that China might devalue its currency also affected the bullion
market.

``If they actually devalue that would be quite frightening, that could cause a lot of
dishoarding of gold,'' one dealer said.

Traders said there were some concern that the market was too bearish.

``The thing that we have started getting a bit worried about on the New York
opening is that everyone seems to be very bearish about it. It seems to be possibly
linking up to a bear trap -- the pressure is still to the downside and it is going to
come off at some point,'' the dealer said.

He said gold might spike higher and then drop sharply.

``Fridays have that potential of being a bit mad,'' the dealer added.

Platinum was last quoted at $380.00/$382.00 against the previous close at
$381.40/$383.40.

Palladium was last quoted at $286.00/$296.00 versus the previous New York
close at $291.00/$301.00.

( ( Marius Bosch, London newsroom +44 171 542 8065, fax +44 171
542 8077. london.commodities.desk+reuters.com ) )
For those hoping for a collapse to boost gold price, read this re: chinese devaluation.

Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication and
redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written
consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the
content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:05
Bill2j (@Sweat) ID#259400:: Sweat my friend, not to worry. It is friday night and all's fair in love and war. Don't lose a moments sleep. We shall be friends till the cows come home. Or some such or other. No hard feelings.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 22:05
Bill Buckler (Gold NOT In A Bear Market) ID#256381:: Let me posit a heretical observation, to wit, that Gold is NOT in a bear market. Check out the Gold chart in any non $US or non European currency chart.

Absurd, you say. Well, on the face of it, and judging Gold solely in terms of $US, you have a good case. But look more closely. In $US terms, Gold's low ( spot future ) was $278, a level reached on January 12, 1998. That's almost seven months ago.

In reality, the $US Gold price declined relentlessly for almost two years, from Feb. 1996 to Jan. 1998. For the past seven months, since Jan. 1998, it has been going sideways. The January low has not been taken out. Gold has not changed direction, it has simply stopped falling.

Look at the mirror image of Gold, the Dow. Technically, the Dow has not changed direction decisively yet either, it has simply stopped rising.But look at the broader market indices, and a much bleaker picture appears. The Dow Transports and the Utilities ( despite the recent strength of US Treasury bonds ) , HAVE changed direction technically. Both indexes did not confirm the Dow's July 17 high. Both have since fallen below their lows of earlier this year. These indexes are, technically, in bear markets. And in classic Dow Theory ( with a tip of the lid to Mr Richard Russell ) , that bodes ill for the Dow itself.

In the middle of all this is the Dollar itself, and U.S. Treasury debt. The Dollar is approaching its June highs against the Yen while 30-year Treasuries are back down to a yield of 5.62% close to their 1998 lows. Why? Because capital is still flooding into the U.S. out of Asia. Japan's woes are in no way over. Hong Kong's market fell nearly 1000 points this week. Everybody in Asia is sure that China will devalue - SOON. And everybody in China and Hong Kong is trying to get into Dollars before the rug is pulled out. Ergo, climbing $US and lower bond yields.

As long as Gold remains above $US 278, all that is necessary is patience. If you think that the U.S. market is potentially in a lot of trouble, why buy Gold stocks? If the market caves in, a stock is a stock is a stock.

Finally, you are doing yourself a great disservice if you confine your attention to events inside the U.S.. Try and put yourself in the mind of a Hong Kong investor, it will open up a whole new perspective on things.

All chart and commentary now updated at The Privateer website.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:54
goldfevr (US trade deficit) ID#434108:: continues to confirm
the hemorrhage
of America's
life-blood

http://www.amshar.com/update/tupdate.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:52
IDT (APH, Aurophile) ID#228128:: My chart also shows a nasty bend in the 100 day moving average. It had been level but is now past the apex and pointing down. Bad things have happened to the POG when that 100 day MA turns down. Finally, the RSI has turned down from 40. If it can hold 40 when the the stochastics are oversold, there is a pretty good chance of a rebound in the POG. If it goes below 40, which it has, chances are good that more downside will follow. I'm short NEM.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:49
Bill2j (@Steve in to_A) ID#259400:: I agree totally. Central Banks have to get permission to sell gold. However bear in mind that gold is to government what oil is to water. They just don't mix. Any time a government sees an opportunity to dump gold without upsetting the apple cart they will do so. The goal of government is to do away with a gold, or pegged standard and to convert to a fiat standard. Do not ever lose sight of the fact that gold is the enemy and as such will be done away with.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:43
sweat (Bill2j) ID#28767:: I too apologize, for my sarcasm. I read what I have written and I think I am out of my mind. However, I have very limited trust in IOU's.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:41
ERLE (Which Kitcoite bought the ) ID#190411:: five tonnes that Canada sold?
Who did they sell to? 168,000 ounces.
Why are there foolish people that buy this commodity?
Don't they know the downside is to two digits?
I would think that there has to be a bureaurocracy somewhere in the Canadian gommint that has a psychological team that can counsel the wannabe buyer of his/hers delusion.
What if they unloaded this crap on a person of colour from a foreign nation.---- Doubleplusungood.
I think that Canadians are the most heartless people on our planet.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:39
aurophile (IDT/gold/yen) ID#201109:: You have it clearly pegged: as long as yen/dollar declines so will gold and CRB Index.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:34
Tantalus Rex (@rhody) ID#295111:: I think it's very possible to have the POG rise relative to other assets,especially dollars. That is, the 'only' inflation there would be is with the POG. In this case, the purchasing power of Gold rises.
But, how this rise in the POG is accomplished is up for debate.

I mean, we've been seeing the purchasing power of money rising relative to gold. Therefore, the opposite MUST hold true.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:33
Mtn Bear (SE) (Friday Nite Comments) ID#347267:: General comments: OK, heard all the bad news and complaints about the juniors. INMH ( humble ) O we all know the juniors are the most volatile! Don't we Gentlemen and ladies, this has been a gold BEAR; it aint quite over yet maybe. Today wasn't all that bad with the majors, wannabees, and the gold funds. See the first chart below. Up an eighth, down an eighth, come on!! KGC unchanged! Again IMHO this is what to expect in a bottoming market --- ACCUMULATION! The price must go down for the big dogs to get their shares lower than all us unknowing little guys!!
I too am smelling a BOTTOM, but I am going to pick my price targets and believe it or not hope for some more downside. Of course all I am holding is GOLDX and CEF, neither of which is below the January lows, so I am not feeling the pain of those into the juniors. I exorcised that pain some months back using money management, which I heartily recommend for all, even those who are accumulating NOW!
I am going to buy more CEF for my physical at 3 1/2 -3 5/8; more GOLDX on the next down move; and rebuy Kinross KGC also on the next down move, hopefully at around 2 1/2. Hey, that is less than I paid for some juniors awhile back!! It is GOOD!!! What is the saying -- Buy Low!! ( But try not to catch knives, look for bottoming patterns and if it keeps agoin down, SELL IT SO YOU CAN STILL PLAY.
Some charts to mull over:
http://quote.yahoo.com/p?v&k=pf_3
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=goldx&d=b
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=kgc&d=b

Ok, Friday nite sermon over; youse guys, gals and lurkers have a gudon!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:32
Bill2j (@TYoung) ID#259400:: Only thing wrong with that line of thought is the fact all the digital cameras come from the rest of the world. They don't make them in the USA that I know of. Trust me, silver for film uses is a dinosaur.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:26
goldfevr (really good buys) ID#434108:: eco
ssc
bmg

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:24
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (TODAY WAS A BANNER DAY FOR OIL STOCKS AND REITS!) ID#431263:: Must mean LOWER INTEREST RATES AHEAD!! AND A LOWER DOLLAR!! GOOD FOR GOLD!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:23
Steve in TO__A (Bill2j - Remember that selling gold . . . ) ID#287337:: by the central banks is ultimately a political decision. Almost all the central banks have to get permission from their respective governments to sell their gold holdings, even though many of them, such as the Fed and the Bank of England, are private corporations.

The reason leasing is so prevalent is that they don't need to ask permission to do it, since the gold stays on their books, and they can respond quickly to market developments. They sometimes make announcements of sales at key times to manipulate the price, but it takes months for a central bank to actually carry out a sale and deliver.

- Steve

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:22
TYoung (Bill2j...the merit of gold over the last 20 years don't mean squat...it's the future) ID#370218:: You know...tops go to bottoms and bottoms go to tops thingie.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:20
sweat (bill too jay) ID#28767:: I am a two handed analyst. The OTHER hand feels an infinite supply of paper at decreasing value, at this present time. ( Read Donalds Yahoo on pulp ) . Not to mention digital fraud. By the way, I trust and like everyone I meet, and I've never been burned. Everyone always pays me what they owe me.
HEIL CLINTLER

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:20
Bill2j (@TYoung) ID#259400:: Shoot friend, we are talking about two different things here. I LIKE gold. I like making money better. I believe in gold and the gold standard and the gold system. I like making money better. I can't see any way to make money with gold other than shorting it. I will stand corrected and bow to better knowledge and facts if you can give me one good sound logical reason why gold should go up instead of down. I can think of many reasons for it to go down but can't think of one why it should go up. Bear in mind I am an advocate of the gold standard and am opposed to fiat currency. However I think discussing $30,000 an oz gold falls into the same category as the monks of the middle ages discussing how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:20
goldfevr (Long-term investors into Gold// Steve @ 21:16) ID#434108:: Confuse-ed suggests:
Perhaps the long-term investors,
have already been getting into..
positioning in-to .... gold...
for quite a while - now....

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:19
tolerant1 (Bill2j, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...most things I can think of, if you had a sixteen year) ID#373284:: supply, you would have to pay people to come and take it away...uh huh...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:17
truenorth__A (Sam_a/Bill2j CB Gold) ID#189268:: Central Banks have been selling on average about 300 tonnes a year for the last 10 years. This was mentioned by Bobby Godsell of Anglogold on CNBC this week. In recent years there has been extra supply due to Euro qualifications mainly from Belgium and the Netherlands. This year we saw the forced sale of 250 tonnes from South Korea. Having said this the Euro sales are just about complete but not quite I suspect. This should abate very soon. Companies have dramatically cut back on extra growth in supply to about 1% for the next 5 years. Demand is over 4000 tonnes. The Euro would not hold any gold if they intended to sell large quatities. I think you can fantasize all you want about double digit gold the facts are that at todays prices 70% of Gold companies are unprofitable. If Gold went down even $50 dollars from here there would be closures and defaults. Jwelery demand and Gold sales which double in the US in June would skyrocket. This cannot continue indefinately. Companies are mining the riches ore and there is virtually no exploration going on. Finally a question which never gets answered whnever someone makes this type of comment which is: Who will buy gold and why given your assertions? For any transaction you need a buyer and seller who are the buyers given your scenario?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:16
APH (IDT - Gold) ID#255226:: I'm not sure when a big drop would occur. If we get though the next 10 trading days without it, the chances of it happening become less amd less.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:16
Steve in TO__A (Rhody - to follow up on your thoughts . . . ) ID#287337:: You're right that the shorts are not taking the bait & leasing, and the commercials are net long.

Remember too that gold prices are very dependent on derivatives markets, and futures speculators are the ultimate trend followers. There are some fundamentalists among them, but almost all of them have a system that they follow mechanically ( most of the time- until their amygdala takes over during extreme market conditions, and they do something stupid : )

As soon as some key signal is crossed ( the Turtles, for example, take a position once a 10-day high or low is crossed on a trend ) they take their position. This means that price trends are discontinuous- a series of thresholds are crossed as a trend develops that causes the trend to acellerate- the momentum speculators create more momentum as they jump on board ( positive feedback. ) This could be what launches the POG out of the control of the CBs, and it means that the CB's have to make sure that no srong bullish trend develops.

This says to me that the long-term investor has to get into gold before the price takeoff, because once it moves, it could suddenly accellerate upward so fast that a lot of profit will be missed.

- steve

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:12
Bill2j (@Rhody) ID#259400:: I am not so sure about the CB's not wanting to sell. I see them as wanting to sell but are not able to sell too much without driving the price down too fast. In the meantime they compensate by leasing to try to make something on a pile of metal that goes down in purchasing power each year, year in and year out. I don't have the stats in front of me but I would like to see a chart with the price of gold adjusted for inflation for the last 20 years. I'd bet a case of beer it has gone down in purchasing power. I might be wrong and will retract my statement if proven so.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:11
ERLE (Bill2j) ID#190411:: The thousands of tons of gold that the CB's so desperately wish to divest themselves of can be had for considerably less than the cost of the US savings and loan fiasco of the 1980's.

The USGommint could say to all of the CB's, We'll buy your gold at 260. USD/oz. The non US CB's would then be holding the fabulous paper, and the US would be holding the gold. Then, the US would institute partial backing ( not convertibilty ) of the USD to gold at a price determined by the only significant holder of gold. ( US )
Presto, back to an historical level of, say, 365.00 ( the POG that AG held for so long as the benchmark to fight inflation of the USD. )

The immediate 40% Revaluation of the USD. Now all of the US transnational companies can buy the world.

This is preposterous because the sovereign countries will not sell.
No commodity can be a perfect backing for currency, but gold does it better than any other.

Cellulose is for cleaning your bum, gold is for money.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:08
goldfevr (T - time) ID#434108:: http://www.amshar.com/update/tupdate.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:08
TYoung (Bill2j...really...I LIKE gold...guess just different strokes for different folks...) ID#370218:: go short and enjoy...I'll do as I enjoy.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:07
kapex (ROR... It's not about Sex, K. Wiley, Paula Jones, Sally Perdue,or any of the ) ID#218222:: other women that have had the misfortune to be, Fondled by, Pants dropped
in front of, or had their hands placed upon him without their consent. ( You
know, in some states in THIS country, these types of actions are called Perversion, and people are sent to jail as well as notifying the general population as to beware of this individual. ) Most of this is about,...Abuse of power, obstruction of justice, strongarm tactics to keep people quiet, and not ot mention illegal Foreign contributions, Illegal gathering of files as well as having the most corrupt administration of any President EVER........But Sex, no it's not about Sex. Thats just what
his willing accomplices in the media want you to think that it's all about!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:05
IDT (APH: on timing of gold) ID#228128:: Earlier in the week you discussed a steep impending drop in gold. Do you have any thoughts on the timing of this. It would seem with the Yen over 146, next week might be that time.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:05
TYoung (Bill2j...do as you must...the rest of the word is only 20 years behind on camera's) ID#370218:: Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:02
rhody (@ Tantalus Rex: I am saying that coffee will be $100 per cup) ID#411440:: in the United States if gold goes to $30 000. A coffee in Berlin
will still be one EURO. The days of the American Monetary Oppression
are numbered.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:02
TYoung (goldfevr...i do read ad re-read to understand...Yes?) ID#370218:: Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:01
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (TODAY'S TWIN BOMBINGS) ID#431263:: were acts so cruel and so cowardly and so well-planned and so ruthless and in such a remote region of the world that it could only have been planned by one man--COL MUAMMAR QADDAFI!! He didn't do it, his Islamic Jihad stooges did, but you can bet your sweet Islamic gold dinar he paid for it! Whatever curses and invectives Tolerant 1 has for BC they GO TRIPLE FOR THIS COWARD!!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:00
Bill2j (@TYoung) ID#259400:: Tom, I don't like gold, except to sell short, but I like silver even less. I am employed in the printing industry. The printing industry has always been a large consumer of silver. We even had silver recovery units to process our chemicals. A couple of years ago we started hearing about digital cameras. A year ago customers started bringing us discs with photos on them to process in the printing process. They are not quite there yet but I can tell you right now I will never buy another camera that uses silver based film. Within a year or two I will be completely digital. What happens to the price of silver when they cease production of 35mm film? Short silver and short gold and most of all short Eastman Kodak.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 21:00
(STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS) ID#206230:: VIEW STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS AT http://www.strategicinvestment.com/

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:59
Steve in TO__A (Mtn. Bear - Thanks for . . . ) ID#287337:: pointing me to Silicon Investor. You're right that they're very much less free-wheeling than the Kitco group.

It's too bad that a gold newsgroup couldn't survive on Usenet without a moderator- it wouldn't have the immediacy of Kitco, but having to wait a few hours before your posts come up would perhaps make for lots of well-thought-out messages.

James - were you able to get ahold of Ole49r?

Thank you again, Kitco friends!

- Steve

BTW- extra thanks too to Sam_A for his info. on the carrying capacity of the Central Banks for gold leasing.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:58
goldfevr (One Recipe for Timing// DJ @ 20:20 - Channels) ID#434108:: Confuse-ed say:
Never swing on a single branch,
including channels;
for even they,
can over-flow
their banks.

Confuse-ed reminds:
every good technician,
including - even...
all other market-timing students...
of more inferior-fundamental type... ... :: )

Traders & Investors alike -
must never swing on a single branch,
lest it break;
and them too,
in-two. !

All, will ultimately learn,
that it takes many branches,
to make,
the tree of timing's
truth.

Confuse-ed's favorite model,
of this timing-tree of truth.....a potential money-tree...
for the wise & patient 'forester & forager'...
of frequent riches, or those more rare....
singles out, only,
several strongest limbs-of-branch...
in seeking the tree of timing truth.

Upon these - following -
Confuse-ed, suggests,
one consider, a 'collective swing'.

Perhaps here is a recipe of sufficient branches,
which offer an opportunity
of bountiful timing...
or at least a....
a risk & chance. ... :: )

C.P.R.O.O.F.S.

C = Commitment of Traders;
P = price patterns-trends/channels, head-n-shlders, pennants, etc.;
R = Rate of Change patterns, momentum/rhythm - every market/or stock, has it's own heart-beat;
O = On-blalance-volume, cumulative volume, and daily volume, and variations on this powerful cause, & 'theme';
O = Oscillators, charting tools, like MACD, RSI, and others, galore;
F = Family Group - price behavior, ex.: gold/silver & the precious metals 'family'; or D-Mark/Sw-Franc & the currency 'family'.
( When one of the metals goes to a new low, or high; and the other/s does/do not, a trend-change is often - portending. ) etc.
S = Social setting - price inter-relationships of different markets/different 'Family Grps.
( Ex. When For. Currencies are bullish,
the Precious Metals will often follow suit, as US stocks & Bonds, in contr-cyclical pattern,
will - then, often wane/decline. ... &/or visa-versa.
( Ex. When grains are bullish, meats are often bearish; & visa-versa. )

And so, Confuse-ed reminds each & all
market students:
Never swing on a single branch,
lest you are looking for,
a nasty fall.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:56
rhody (Re Bill2j's comments: Bill assumed that CBs would be willing to) ID#411440:: lease/sell all their gold reserves. This they would never do.
The present low lease rates suggest that they still want to lease,
but that speculators are not inclined to borrow even at these low
rates. Even speculators are sensing the bottom. The commercials
certainly do. They are net long. Present CB sales are at half the
rate of the last two years, so the supply is drying up. Demand
despite India's troubles is still strong, so the supply deficit
is growing. This is all very bullish before you add in the USD's
future troubles as the DOW tanks, and Joe 6 pack begins to
experience real fear. When Joe buys, he and the shorts can scramble
for all that gold in CB vaults that won't be for sale.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:55
TYoung (Brother oris...your back...how are you...got ammo:)) ID#370218:: Hope all is well.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:55
Tantalus Rex (@rhody) ID#295111:: I don't believe the 1 ounce for a suit rule holds in this day and age cause of productivity gains in the world today. So I don't believe that coffee would cost be a bundle.

One big difference from days of old has to be the growth of the worlds population and the growth of the money supply.

All I'm really saying is that if the US backs its paper with 100% gold, nothing really changes ( only minor changes ) EXCEPT that gold buys more.

It's a matter of perception. We need people to realize that gold is money, and paper is paper. Right now, there is a strong belive in paper.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:53
oris (ROR(America in crisis?!?)) ID#238422:: Let's see what you just said:

1. One MAD man with the gun

2. One Saddam

3. Two explosions in Africa

Opps, America in crisis?!?

I'll better buy nice Czech-made CZ-75B....

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:51
tolerant1 (Tantalus Rex, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...) ID#373284:: and at your insistance...sip...ahhhh, VIVA tequila...go gold! silver too, squeak...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:51
Gollum (Coming to a head) ID#43349:: Venezuela,Russia,Mexico,Canada,Japan,China,Korea,Thailand,Australia,Malaysia,......

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:47
APH (Silver) ID#255226:: Probing for a bottom is always stressful. Buying and selling as close as possible to support and resistance areas makes it a little easier. The dollar risk is less. If you're following these silver trades, stops were hit today with no worse then a $300-400 loss. If you watch the indiviual tics it's appaarent the market is very sluggish. Stops a half a cent away from the real time price are not being hit. Lack of interest and weak gold market are pulling silver down. The middle of nexxt week should bring a bottom. Buy Sept Silver next week anytime its trading under 5.05 and Dec under 5.10. From a wave view point the weekly chart hasn't changed. The Gold market is still in a down trend, a weekly close next Fri above $300 would change the trend

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:47
tolerant1 (ROR, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...now, are you kidding me or what pal, did you) ID#373284:: fall and hit your head...Saddam is doing whatever he pleases because Clintler is a weak and ineffectual zipperhead. The attacks in Africa can be handled far better by people that have a clue. As to Mr. Starr, Clintler and Janet the Inferno Reno can fire him at anytime. Yes, that is correct, at any time. The FBI has given the Inferno direct evidence implicating not only EnviroWhore Gore, but Clintler as well. Clintler is the one who has brought this on himself, plain and simple. Monica is merely another instance where the Liar in Chief is proving that not only can he not be trusted, but he will lie to the end to the detriment of the country...

Clintler has been single handedly responsible for gutting the military and I can assure you these are not the first Americans that have died nor will they be the last, due directly to Clintler's destroying our military and it's ability to defend the nation's security.

And to top it off pal you have a double standard problem with Clintler that JUST won't go away and that is the fact that individuals under his command in the military, remember, he is the Commander in Chief, have been whacked into oblivion for the very same thing he is frittering away his time with instead of taking care of business which is what he gets paid for in case you forgot that too, by having sexual relations with an intern on the People's time...

Yeah, gather around Clintler for the sake of the country...if Clintler wanted to help out the United States he would abort himself or invite Kevorkian over for a night-cap...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:46
Mtn Bear (SE) (@SteveinTO yr 19:40) ID#347267:: Gold thread at Sil Inv: http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-15208
You may be aware, but this is the Gold Price Monitor thread; different flavor, rather staid, regulars of course. Must pay to post after free introductory period on all of Sil Inv forums.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:44
TYoung (@Biil2j...RJ already taught me how to short gold...sorry not at this price level...) ID#370218:: Do what you gotta do bro...and so shall I. I got more physical gold and silver than I should because we are in a currency crisis. I know I'm early but late is to late.

You go short gold. I'll wait til $300 or $320 or $330 depending on the trend.

My investment perspective is longer than my di**. At least that's what the Oracle of OZ says.

Good trading to you .

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:43
rhody (@ sam__A: Yes I was using the mining costs, not full costs.) ID#411440:: The picture is indeed bleaker than I painted. I expect the BIS
also knows this, and I can't help but wonder if they may act
to support the POG and unravel this little game the CBs are
playing before irreparable harm is done to future gold supplies.

Highgrading deposits implies the necessity for even higher POG to
pay the costs to recover gold from inefficiently mined ore deposits,
dating back to this period of low POG.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:42
ROR (Sweat) ID#412286:: When the supply and demand on financials turn negative there is probably about 10000 years of supply. A couple a richies can buy all the gold but could hardly even micro nick financials. All it will take is a tiny change in capital flows and gold is thru the roof. Conversely only a constant and increasing flow of all the world's capital can support financials. Anyone heard of liquidity. Financials downside illiquidity conversely metals upside illiquidity ( Cover those leveraged shorts..forget any actual increase in demand ) .

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:41
Bill2j (@Sweat) ID#260389:: Ok, Sweat has provide an answer. Sixteen ( 16 ) years from now the lines cross and the CB's are out of gold and the laws of supply and demand take hold. Now, what is the true value of gold as jewelry? Add to that any industrial uses and we have the true price of gold. Two ( 2 ) digits. I'll bet on it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:37
Bill2j (@San_A) ID#260389:: Not to worry. I have a hide like leather. No offense taken. However I do believe that central bankers and governments hate gold with a passion. Almost all are saddled with huge reserves left over from generations ago. Back when gold was money and limited governments abiltity to create fiat currency. I believe that all these governments want to get out from under the Golden Rock. I also believe it is in their best interest to manage the long slippery slope down to gold's true value as a commodity. Having said all that I stand on my position of real demand, real supply and what the CB's can sell into that. When do we have a shortage?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:35
tolerant1 (Dutchman, Namaste' gulp to ya...) ID#373284:: email when you get a chance tolerant1@msn.com

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:34
sweat (bill two jay) ID#28767:: I am a too handed analyst. Some one here has calculated 16 years.
SIXTEEN YEARS til the banks run out of gold. That is one hell of a lot of time.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:34
Tantalus Rex (GREAT BILL CLINTON JOKE... read on for a good laugh) ID#295111:: President Clinton's Chastity Band

Bill Clinton ( BC ) was worried about leaving Monica Lewinsky ( ML ) alone with all those horny 'insiders' and close associates at the Whitehouse. Who knows what she might do, talk or what else?

So BC went to the CIA for some advice. After explaining his predicament to a CIA research wiz, the agent said that he'd see if he could come up with something, and asked the president to come back in a week.

A week later BC was back in a research laboratory where the inventor was showing him his latest invention. It was a chastity wand... except that it had a rather large hole in the most obvious place. This is no good! BC exclaimed, Look at this opening. How is this supposed to protect my mistress?

Ah, Great Great President... just observe. said the CIA researcher as he searched his cluttered work bench until he found what he was looking for. He then selected a strong thick solid oak drum stick.

He then inserted it in the gaping aperture of the chastity wand whereupon a small guillotine blade came down and cut it neatly in two.

Oh Man, you are a genius! said the grateful BC. Now I can leave and do what I want, knowing that ML is fully protected.

After putting ML in the chastity band, the President then set out upon his political endeavors, showing the American people how tough and resliant he is to any potential scandal. The guy has nine lives you know.

A few months passed when he summoned ML for some REAL work at the Whitehouse. He began to sense something was wrong after a quick session with ML.

Immediately he assembled all his associates into his private room and had them drop their trousers for an informal 'short arm' inspection. BC didn't even trust Greenspan or Rubin who were absolutely required to be present.

Sure enough! Each and every one of them was either amputated or damaged in some way. All of them except Greenspan and Rubin.

You wonderful two men, exclaimed BC. You're the best. You guys have made me look real good with all your economic wizardry!!

Only you two among all the rest have been true to me. So true. What is it in my power to grant you? Name it and it is yours!

Both Greenspan and Rubin wanted to respond, unfortunately they were speechless for the first time.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:33
ROR (I AM NO CLINTON FAN BUT...) ID#412286:: In the last two weeks we have had a mad gun man attack the Capitol, Saddam thumb his nose at arms inspectors and now two simultaneous attacks on US embassies in Africa. Is it time to tell Ken Starr to back off as we have to close ranks in this emergency unraveling situation. His actions are hurting the President in dealing with all these crises, surely something we all oppose. Should a mere tryst be allowed to affect America's security. We demand the investigation be scuttled and let America function in a united self confident front instead of having attacks on the President when crises abound and we can least afford it. KEN STARR STOP attacking America IN CRISIS.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:29
sam__A (@ rhody - Cost of production = $250?) ID#286284:: You are believing the cash cost numbers! Propaganda! Global production on a _full_ cost basis is more like $325. If $250 were the number, don't you think more companies would be making money? But they are not - red ink abounds. The industry is already underwater - high-grading their deposits and painting their books. This dip will take years to recover from.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:26
Donald (Fall of yen hurts commodity sales; prices drop in dollar terms.) ID#26793:: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980803/business/stories/commodities_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:20
DJ (Channels) ID#215208:: Must be near the bottom. I see gloom and capitulation. With some savvy players sniffing a turn around. The channels charts seem to say the bottom is near. However, the drop today in silver has an ominous overtone.

Gold - OK. I gave up on trying to define an up-channel. The best I could do now is a horizontal channel, and this would be no fun. So I deleted the up-channel, and we are left with the old down-channel. The bottom of this channel is currently around 282. It seems likely we will touch this bottom, but I doubt it would drop below it. However, given silver's action today, it may be possible. Even in this down channel, a rally could take gold back up to 310 or thereabouts. This would be a welcome break!

Silver - I was VERY disappointed when silver dropped back to the channel bottom this week. Not once, but twice. It closed in London right at the channel bottom, BEFORE the big drop below 5.30. So two things can happen. It can recover in London on Monday. This would be nice, as I wouldn't have to change my channel. Or not. In which case I must do some real soul searching, as I am still long silver - big time.

Platinum - Here I was equally disappointed that PL didn't reach the channel bottom. The big day we had in gold jerked platinum up. Palladium accomodated by dropping below its up-trend line, but PL just wouldn't respond drop the last few bucks to the channel bottom ( my target was 365 ) . So here I am. Still short. Current target is 370. PL is strong. I may be forced to revise my channel and make it even steeper, using the recent low to define the channel bottom. I'll let it cook over the week-end, and decide in the next few days what to do.

Palladium - Still behaving well.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:19
sam__A (@ bill2j - sorry for the agressive tone.) ID#286284:: in my last note. With respect, I find your analysis uninformed and ludicrous, but that is no excuse for a disrespctful tone. My apologies.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:16
sam__A (@ jims re your 19:41 - Silver stockpiles in Europe) ID#286284:: Yes - liquidity was returned to the markets; but A. It looks as though Buffet sold 20 mil ozs at the top to prevent defaults; and B. Buffet lent huge amounts back into the market.

But you miss my point -- why did rates have to get to _70%_ for liquidity to return? Don't you think this is a tad high? Imagine selling $1 billion of bonds and seeing yields increase by 4000%. I mean, if there were wads of silver on surface, why couldn't 15% bring them to market? Why not not 30% Why not 50% No - it took 70% to defuse the crisis. Don't you think this is a tad abnormal? If not, I must ask you what you would consider an abnormal lease rate? Was palladium scarce when those rates got to 300% Would 300% convince you there is not a lot of silver sloshing around?

Sorry for the aggressive tone. Thanks for the posts and have a good week-end.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:15
Bill2j (@Sam_A) ID#259400:: Sam, I'm not good at math during the day and I'm legendary for being bad on friday night but let's assume that the Central Banks of the world all decided to divest themselves of gold completely. Take the current rate of consumption, the current rate of production and throw in X amount of Central Bank gold for the next X years. When do we run out of gold to dump into the market? What is the annual shortfall? Divide the annual shortfall into the Central Bank reserves. When do we have a gold shortage. I don't know the answer but I will defer to your math calculations.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:13
Donald (Asian crisis brings deflation to pulp and paper industry) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980805/sodra_to_s_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:11
rhody (Bill2j: I'm afraid I can't agree with your 2 digit future for gold.) ID#411440:: the price of gold. The average world cost of production is about $250
and your figure means destruction of the world gold mining industry.
It further implies that the CBs want to destroy gold as a monetary
asset. Untrue. Gold is money. Paper is debt instrument based on
political whim.. The BIS will never let any CB destroy the present
system. Would the ECB back the EURO with 15% gold backing ( the USD
has no backing with gold ) if gold was unimportant? They will use
this backing and a doubling of the POG in early 1999 to crush the
USD as the primary world currency.

Gold under 100 dollars means a bottomless depression, and a value of
the USD ALMOST TRIPLE ITS PRESENT VALUE! The American economy is
staggering under the consequences of a USD which is only 30%
overvalued now. Do you think an American farmer would plant if
corn was only 80 cents a bushel? If he did produce corn, would
foreign markets buy it at $6.00 per bu?

No. I think double digit gold is just as silly as 5 digit gold.

Will anybody go for 4 digit gold? Compromise is good!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:08
Bill2j (@TYoung) ID#259400:: Lord, I sure you you get gold short and not long because it has a lot farther to go down than it has already come. There is nil to none on the upside potential in gold but a ton of downside potential. Ride it short down to two digits and make a ton of money.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:02
Donald (Blooper; a new one to worry about...Venezuela) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980806/d_p_downgr_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 20:00
sam__A (@Bill2j - Gold supply unlimited!!) ID#286253:: Gotta laugh. CBs hold about 31,000 tons. About 25% has _already_ been leased out leaving approx. 23,000 tons. ( The NY Fed used to hold 10,000 tons. Now down to 6000. ) 23,000 tons is about 200 billion dollars - the market cap of some software companies or a lowball estimate of this years trade deficit.

An unlimted amount of gold! Please! I gotta an idea: go away, do your homework and then come back with something intelligent to say.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:57
Speed (Steve in TO) ID#29048:: Gold mining discussion at Silicon Investor can be found at:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/~wsapi/investor/stocktalk-17

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:53
Gollum (Russia) ID#43349:: http://www.bloomberg.com/@@DHGdEAcA8uUO5azb/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=572326022>http://www.bloomberg.com/@@DHGdEAcA8uUO5azb/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=572326022

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:52
Donald (China blocks press from information about floods, economic damage.) ID#26793:: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/ap/international/story.html?s=v/ap/980806/international/stories/china_flood_media_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:50
Gollum (China) ID#43349:: http://www.hkstandard.com/online/finance/001/china/fina001.htm

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:50
rhody (@ Tantalus Rex: Do you really want gold to reach $30 000 per oz?) ID#411440:: If it does, your morning cup of coffee will cost you $100, and most
people on earth will be ruined. Thirty thousand dollar gold results
from utter collapse of the world economy. Gold prices would soon
return to the $300 level as the 500 to 1000 million people who
did not starve to death, found they had inherited all the world's
gold, and the per capita redistribution made it plentiful again.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:49
Bill2j (@jims) ID#259400:: jims, I hope you have a long life expectancy because it will be many years before precious metals have a bull ride, if they ever do. Remember, the supply is unlimited, but the demand is very limited. The CB's can sell into the market for generations before they run out. Two digits. As in 2. Gold will go to two ( 2 ) digits before it's over.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:48
blooper (Donald) ID#207145:: Economies, currencies are crashing all around us. Next week will be interesting. I am worried. The next few months are ominous.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:45
Donald (Brazilian stocks drop nearly 4% on worries over Chinese devaluation.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/brazil_sha_2.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:42
blooper (Steve in TO) ID#207145:: 10--4 Steve. That would just make things worse, and they know it. However, Clinton will find subtle ways to take our freedoms away.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:41
jims (Thank god its Friday) ID#252391:: Have enjoyed all the illuminating posts of this past week. Time for a break.

To Sam A - and so lease rates rose the supply necessary was found and the market fell. Same thing again with the rally to $5.85 that was so soundly turned back. Manipulation, maybe, leasing probably, plenty of supply to meet buyers demand YES.

$5.50 is only significant to me because it would represent a reversal, an indication the fundlementals you elude to are exerting themselves over the selling preasure. I tend to go along with Gollum: down then up, that's what's been hapening, when it occurs or there is some evidence that it won't, I'm sidelined as far as silver is concerned.

I'm sorry you don't find my post particularly insightful - maybe they are not. The market price for silver is challenging the conventional wisdom of deficits and falling inventories, I'm not.

Have a good weakend - looking forward to joining you on the great bull ride when it begins.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:41
Donald (Mexican stocks drop to 15 month low after Moody's negative comments on Mexican debt.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/mexico_sto_6.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:40
Steve in TO__A (Question) ID#209265:: Can someone give em the URL to look at SI? Is that the Strategic Investment website, or a gold discussion area?

ThanQ in advance,
Steve

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:38
Tantalus Rex (@Tolerant1) ID#295111:: Keep kickin ass you Camdessus Crusher. Have another sip of Tequila.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:38
Steve in TO__A (Blooper - concerning the sucker rally and . . . ) ID#209265:: crash-like days to follow.

There is a wild card in the equation that has never existed before: the Plunge Protection Team of the Treasury Dept.. Just as the behavior of gold prices has been thrown awry by CB intense manipulation, the behavior of markets has been skewed by government intervention.

We may find that steep drops are aborted by concerted intervention. Also, political considerations will come into play as the Democrats ( It's the economy stupid ) support Clinton in trying to prop the markets up until the Nov. elections. We may even find that the Treasury Dept. will take on the Bear itself and try to forstall the overall decline that is inevitable, as Clinton pulls out all the stops trying to regain congress for the Democrats. A democrat majority in at least one of the legislatures is Clinton's only hope for survival.

I think we are going to observe some very strange goings-on in the near future.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:35
Tantalus Rex (@PH in LA 15:30) ID#295111:: I liked your post too. 30K Gold is a long shot however. But when you think of it, 30K is what gold is really worth considering the large population in the world and when gold is rated on a per capita basis.

LONG SHOTS DO COME IN FROM TIME TO TIME!!!!

So then, 30K Gold is a real possibilty and DEFINATELY WORTH THE RISK OF INVESTMENT in this metal that never dies.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:31
Tantalus Rex (@Sam_A 13:09) ID#295111:: That was a great post Sam. You tell it like it is. ( Howard Cossell? )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:31
Gollum (The long end of the stick) ID#43349:: Sometimes people take too short a view. Say they see where they will be needing some money in a couple of years but not so much right now. So they buy a stock planning to get it out at a higher price later on.

So are they content to see it steadily grow year after year and become some industry giant by the time they are ready to sell?

No, they want it to pop up immediately. So it pops up just like they wanted but they aren't ready to sell yet, maybe buy more.

So it turns out that it popped up because some market manipulators wer hyping it for the big blowoff. Maybe the same hype that brought it to there attention in the first place.

Sometimes if the stuff you buy today rises immediately it means you bought the wrong stuff.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:24
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: I get withdrawl symptoms being in cash. I get to thinking too much, and the phone is right there. You know? It is hard work sittin in cash. And keeping powder dry. I will learn to like it. Till late September.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:23
Gollum (@ERLE) ID#43349:: Not gloomy, I just feel the seasonals are there, the world situation is there, the trends are there, the DOW is moving like a puppet on strings, and I think we are coming to a final resolution of the long bear market in gold.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:20
Gollum (@Dutchman) ID#43349:: That's not a bad plan. That way you cover both sides. Sort of like an insurance policy.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:17
Gollum (Optimistic me) ID#43349:: If we do get a big decline in the POG into September and it brings a final end to this years long decline, then so be it.

It hurts to pull a tooth, nut it is SOOOoo much better when the toothache is finally gone.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:12
Dutchman (Gollum) ID#268260:: Thanks for your advice. Maybe I will sell half and reinvest at a lower price. My strategy has been to buy and hold. I will consider your wisdom. Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:12
Gollum (@JTF) ID#43349:: Well, there is one threat to the US$ that could unfold fairly quickly.

There is a run on the Canadian dollar, pressure on the Yen, Thailand ( I think it was ) has just devalued and the Chinese are threatening to.

The balance of trade is already looking bad and the US economy being hit by it already.

If the Chinese DO devalue, it will bring a chorus of cries from US industry that Rubin and Greenspan will have to respond to.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:10
blooper (Dutchman) ID#207145:: I think that would work. You would buy a little insuranse. I will stand aside. I forgot that saying about the piano player. It is true. They sell it all, and ask questions later.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:06
blooper (Sam. Erle) ID#207145:: When they come, they usually get everybody, even the piano player.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:05
Gollum (@Dutchman ) ID#43349:: If it was me, I would go to cash and wait a bit to see if this will really unfold this way. September is only a month or so away and the way things are now with the Yen and all I don't think one would be missing much even if I am wrong.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:05
JTF (Thanks for your response) ID#57232:: goldfevr: There is a bit of the poet in you -- it must come naturally, like it does with sharefin, who claims all of the poetry comes from his dad. Even if it is true, I know that he ( and you ) could easily wax poetic.
You are probably right that the equity bull will return to suck the blood of some baby boomers before it falters. Also, I think you are right that the new gold bull will creep up on us, and only a few will see the pressure slowly build to a creshendo. And then all will see.
The only exception to this might be an unforseen event -- a war, a mishap -- something that blemishes the standing of the US in a big way.
Currently there is no serious threat to the US dollar. It will take years for SEAsia to recover from their financial collapse, and Europe is in no position to challenge us unless there is some y2k or derivatives related secret that makes trade shift to the EURO. It will be interesting to see how the ever-expanding derivatives situation, the y2k problem, and unforeseen events shape the millenium. It is human nature to expect something at the turn of the century -- so that will increase the odds of it happening. And most of us will see these events unfold.
It is hard being a gold investor, as the very existence of gold strikes anger and fear in the hearts of the fiat currency enthusiasts, who do not wish to see the Dorian Grey - like portrait of the world's financial system shown for what it is.
I did not realize that Thomas Jefferson so clearly saw the risks of fiat currency. And --- the Chinese had at least 3 episodes of runaway inflation over 3000 years of history -- all before T. Jefferson's time. Undoubtedly he too was a student of history.
Here's to truth and honesty as a way of life. Hopefully this economic cycle will make a more lasting impression on the annals of history than the many ones before this one. And, cycles of some kind -- hopefully less traumatic ones -- will always be a part of the human condition.
For some reason, I am now thinking of the fictional economist Hari Seldon of the Foundation Trilogy -- Isaac Asimov? Wasn't Heinlein, I think. At any rate, we are like the keepers of the truth and secrets of hard currency-based economics, to ease the transition through our difficult economic times to come. All neccessary, unfortunately, because of the nature of the human condition. At least for a few more generations.
I still hope to see us reach the stars before I am to old to look at the sky and wonder how there can be so many hundreds of billions of suns in the universe, millions at least just like ours -- with planets around 1/4 of them. Life elsewhere, and intelligent life elsewhere -- is a certainty. And -- it is the most precious thing in the Universe.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:05
Dutchman (Blooper) ID#268260:: I bought ECO below 2. I doubt it will retrace its low of 1 1/4. Would hate to be ought of the market when she blows. Perhaps another strategy would be to average in by buying more if the price drops below 1 5/8. Your take?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:04
blooper (Dutchman) ID#207145:: When they come, they usually get everybody, even the piano player.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:02
ERLE (I called Euro-Nevada today.) ID#190411:: to find out what the bad news is. Nothing other than all of the rest of the golds are down. They have taken a big hit this past couple of weeks.
TYoung and Tolerant1 convinced me to buy a bit more.

Gloomy Gus Gollum now shoves a stick into the front wheel of my gold bicycle.
Why do you predict such a grinding down of gold? Is it the imminent devaluation of Yuan? Or are you just mad that your airplane mechanic reversed the control cables of your silverbird?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:02
sam (bloopy) ID#286234:: I thought goldbugs were the only ones that have ANY gold in their portfolios, so why should gold shares get hurt when people panic and sell their entire portfolios?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:01
Tantalus Rex (@Tantalus_A) ID#295111:: So, how's my little cousin doing? I just saw your 2 posts this morning. Tell me, what does the 'A' stand for?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 19:00
blooper (Dutchman) ID#207145:: I would guess that one should keep his powder dry. I knew there was a risk of being swept away by the crapola, When it hits the fan. If you could buy back a lot cheaper, it would be worth it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:57
Dutchman (Tolerant I) ID#268260:: Sorry for posting my message to you as Aragon I. Brain fart. Must learn to stop blowing smoke rings.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:55
Jack (This is not a recommendation, just searching for thoughts) ID#252127:: Anyone with an opinion on Dayton Mining, its up 1/8 or 50% to 3/8 today.

When I look at its Q1 balance sheet financials, it seems that they might just squeeze by possible diaster, although I don't like the increased mining costs caused by lower grades and higher stripping ratios.

Are these stripping and lower grade problems going to continue?

Not to mention the potential lawsuit which probably has no teeth and could be a ploy to drive it down.

Also keeping me from a decision is that they had negative cash flow in Q1 while selling their gold production at over $400 oz.

I'm wondering if someone wants them down to get a big stake. The mine seems capable of producing 80,000 to 100,000 plus ounces annually.

Because of its production capability; and the possiblity of solving some of its operation problems it kinda looks interesting.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:53
Dutchman (Blooper & Gollum & Aragon I) ID#268260:: Blooper - I assume we are talking about Yvan Auger? I have also seen another chartist taking the XAU into oblivion.

Gollum - Good point! Will you hold, sell out now, or buy back later?

Aragon I - Thanks. I will research you suggestions.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:51
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: When the crap hits the fan, a stock is a stock.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:49
tolerant1 (Dutchman, Namaste' and a shot to ya from the Island that is Long...give me a little) ID#373284:: bit and I shall do my best to present you with a varied list so that you might best find that which you are looking for...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:48
pot O gold__A (Why not.) ID#170196:: Think I will get my poison, rope, gun and go to the river.

You guys got me in nowhers land.

Twister

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:48
tolerant1 (suspicious, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...that may very well be the understatement) ID#373284:: of this young month...my waters run deep, the Clintler pissant stirs up the mud down below...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:47
Mr. Mick (Tol1, by the way, all else on this front is doing very well indeed............) ID#345321:: thanks for your prayers. I'm off to smoke an expensive cigar on behalf of all Kitcoites!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:45
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: I am 90% cash, 10% gold. I may get 100% cash. I

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:43
Gollum (@Dutchman) ID#43349:: What is the XAU now? Maybe about sixty something. It would very easily get to 35....by September.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:42
Mr. Mick (Tolerant1 - just got back from a Japanese steak house...............) ID#345321:: the chef on the hot table was amazing with those knives! On the currency front, it might be time for me to sell yen and buy Swiss francs, no?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:41
blooper (Dutchman) ID#207145:: That guy sees a depression of huge proportions.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:41
Gollum (@blooper) ID#43349:: I noticed that, but silver hung in too earlier in the week as gold and the yen declined. Even went up a little.

Then came this morning.

Gold is just hanging there, but it's hanging there ominously.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:40
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: That's the wise council you are noted for.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:38
Dutchman (Bloopper & Gollum) ID#268260:: I tend to agree with both of you. But what do you make of the Elliot Wave theorists whose charts point to and XAU of 35? The technicians and fundamentalists have a definite conflict of opinion.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:37
blooper (10--4 Gollum) ID#207145:: That was one of my scenerios too. I believe you are right.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:34
blooper (Gold hung in today) ID#207145:: Considering the US dollar was up 2 Yen when last I looked. I do think the bottom is in for all practical purposes.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:32
Gollum (@blooper) ID#43349:: After the little rally is over next week, all stocks go down. Gold stocks turn around in September and go back up, but the DOW and such go on down till December.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:30
blooper (Dutchman) ID#207145:: Bonds have topped.. Utilities will fall. You've got cash and gold, and short term bonds. Thats it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:30
TYoung (The more negative the comments here the more I know the bottom is in...) ID#317193:: Thanks folks, I needed that.

Went gold.

Disney...put Ben on the computer video link so I can pick some RSA stocks...better than darts.

The sky is falling...said chicken little.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:28
sam__A (@ jims - Your logic is thus: Silver going down 'cause it has gone down. (?!)) ID#286253:: Not very insightful, but I will take you at your word. Question: How will you know when the trend is broken? A close above 5:50, you say? We've done that. Will the next close above 5:50 be more meaningful? If so, why?

But I might even question your contention that the trend is down - year-over-year silver has performed as well as anything. Trend certainly seems up to me.

Oh - and as far as your remark note we don't know and repeat don't know what's happening in Europe with reference to silver inventories. More spook talk, eh? Loads and loads of the metal waiting to hit the market. Hmmm. Then answer me this ( please do ) : Why did a _puny_ captital inflow into silver cause lease rates to increase by 4000%? Liquidity simply evaporated - what happened to the vaults of silver back then? 70% interest not good enough for 'em? I would take this as an indirect evidence that we do not have huge reserves of above-ground silver waiting to be dumped into a rising market. Do you believe otherwise? If so, please explain where it was during the Buffet purchase.

( Armstrong's explanation is that a conspiracy took place wherein everybody decided to lease silver at the same time. Says that backwardation proves this. Ahh Marty, dumber than a fence post, are ya? )

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:28
Dutchman (Market Psychology) ID#268260:: I am predicating my belief that Gold should have seen its bottom by the end of August upon the notion of market psychology. The fundaments look strongly positive. The technicals point to a lower XAU. But market psychology means something that seems to be overlooked. Sentiment appears to be turning everywhere I look. The bottom may not be in quite yet, that is beyond my knowledge, but less people are trashing gold and more are mentioning it is a viable investment that has been overlooked. That sentiment should grow as things grow worse abroad and at home. That's my humble take on things.

Off to search for the ring.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:27
blooper (I can see) ID#207145:: People selling their entire portfolio. Everything, just get me out, sort of thing, would possibly hurt gold shares too. It makes sense. It is a scenario.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:20
rhody (@ GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD: If the BIS will buy all gold under 280, and) ID#411440:: lease rates are near 0.5%, I feel confortable with a projection of
gold bottoming no lower that 277. Lease rates at under 1% are
an indication that the shorts ARE wary, and that demand for
short amunition is low. Any gold bought under 290 is OK.
If gold later goes to 280, you kick yourself, but if gold goes
to 400 - 800, what's $10? Personally, I expect gold at 1200 in
3 years or less.

I don't care, I AM buying more.

When the DOW does precipitously distribute, and AG lowers interest
rates, that really snuffs the gold carry, and one can buy at will.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:20
RLM (trader_vic__A) ID#409349:: Love your 13:51 post. Keep 'um coming!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:18
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: You thinking all stocks go bad in September?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:17
blooper (Garzarelli) ID#207145:: Runs a fund now. She is a talking head.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:16
Dutchman (Tolerant I) ID#268260:: Thanks for seconding Gold Dancer and Gollum. What other stocks might I consider? Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:15
Gollum (@GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD) ID#43349:: I guess we'll find out soon enough. Only got about five or six bucks to go.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:13
SteveIS__A (Garzarelli says buy) ID#287340:: Garzarelli says correction over time to buy. Last couple years you could make a lot of money using her as a contrary indicator.

This so called rally is weak. In three days of rallying the market couldn't even make up half of the 300 point drop. One of the rules of candle stick trading is when three days can't reverse a big move that the trend didn't change.

The VIX is still high. This suggests the rally has a few more days to go. When thats over the first 3rd wave down of the new bear market will start.

This could cause one last blip up in bonds. When Tbonds and dollar start to follow the market down the precious metals begin their bull market.

Got Gold!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:13
Gollum (@Aragorn III) ID#43349:: Yeah, it won't be too good for the stocks for awhile. But it doesn't last long and it signals the end of the years long decline. Things will be a little long faced in Sept but Thanksgiving and Christmas will be happy, happy, happy.

Unless you have a lot of DOW stuff.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:11
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: I've gotten really defensive about gold lately. Must be getting near a bottom. Ha, Ha. ( hollow laugh ) . Off to drink in serious way1!!!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:11
Aragorn III (The Bywater Inn beckons...) ID#212323:: Away...to contemplate the golden future, and raise a pint in honor of all those who wander the halls of Kitco. Thanks Bart K.!

got gold?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:08
Dutchman (Aragon III) ID#268260:: Please accept my most since apologies for overlooking you. I only assumed that you lived in Rivendell and would be there before us, so to speak, as you move much faster than hobbits. Sincerely, Bilbo Boggins

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:08
blooper (AragornIII, Gollum) ID#207145:: That makes three of us guys. I don't need that feeling in the pit of my stomach, that I've had 6,000 times or so.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:07
Gollum (@blooper) ID#43349:: I have always said mid September. That's about six weeks. I think it was Dutchman looking at end of August.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:06
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (A SERIOUS WARNING TO ALL GOLD SHORTS!!!-) ID#431263:: Any attempt by the shorts to drive gold down below $280 will be met with FIERCE BUYING BY THE BIS ( and goldbugs ) as ANOTHER has so eloquently stated!! The BIS will NOT allow gold to go below $280!! Anyone who wants to try and SHORT GOLD at $280 will get his head handed to 'em in a DOW basket!! The fact that Herr Disney's YEN/GOLD connection has now broken down and is on the verge of reversing, ought give anyone thinking of shorting gold SERIOUS PAUSE before destroying their financial health and wealth!! In the fullness of time!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:06
ForkLift__A (ALBERICH__A) ID#156161:: Over the past few days it has occured to me that
the USA owns Japan's fabled savings, although I
had not considered the mechinism by which it is
transferred. Thanks for leading me to these
potential explanations.
Now if the Japanese would back the Yen with full
gold convertibility and acquire a few dozen nukes......

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:04
Aragorn III (Dutchman...Excuse me!) ID#212323:: But you would rather blow smoke rings with Gollum than with Strider, himself
I've never been so insulted...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:04
Dutchman (Gold Dancer) ID#268260:: Thanks for your advice. I own a lot of Echo Bay shares. I've followed the company off and on for 18 years. Could you give me some reasons why I should purchase DROOY shares in lieu of more ECO shares? Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:04
Gollum (Gollum hopes Gollum's call does not materialize too.) ID#43349:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:02
Gollum (@Gold Dancer) ID#43349:: It's a real sideshow, isn't it? First there is the dress, then there isn't the dress. Then the dress with a stain. Now the dress but it's been dry cleaned.

It all started to point Starr away from Whitewater. Or, as you say, something bigger....

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:02
Aragorn III (Blooper...) ID#212323:: My comments on falling prices were part of a dialog that has evolved with Gollum over the past afternoon. Personally, I have no sense of where gold is going over the short-term besides into my possession and not out again. I hope Gollum's call does not materialize.

got it?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 18:00
rhody (@ blooper: your guess is as good as mine. I have lotsa ) ID#411440:: paper losses in trying to call the low. Try this: gold has
bottomed when lease rates go back up over 1% in a steep ascent,
after reaching the 0.5% environ. We will be able to see this
when .............. Bart begins to repost lease rates.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:59
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: What are your reasons for this mini--crash in gold. I thought you said 1 Sep.? Now it's 6 weeks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:58
Suspicious (Tolerant1 :) ) ID#287312:: Do I get the impression that you're not fond of our Prez.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:58
SILVERFOX (Place Your Bets) ID#113316:: jims 4:19 and 5:07 - suggest you look at the ten year chart for silver. POS bottomed in 1993 and has been in an uptrend ever since with higher highs and higher lows. In fact, POG is only PM that has not had a spike up in price over the past year or so. Conditions for these spikes to hold are not in place yet but we are nearly there. We need to see the following happen concurrently:

1. Decline in dollar;

2. Decline in US financial markets ( both equities and bonds ) ;

3. Collapse of Internet Stocks; and

4. Rally in all PMs.

We have yet to see all of this happen concurrently in a convincing manner but when it does happen, it will be obvious. I now believe the rally in PMs will be a spectacular event. If you are not already in, you will have a hard time placing your bets.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:57
Dutchman (Gollum) ID#268260:: On what do you base your gold bottom in mid September?

Great handle! - My precious - and may we someday blow smoke rings together in Rivendell.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:57
Aragorn III (Gollum....OUCH....) ID#212323:: That's gonna kill the mining stocks. I can see it happening only because this is not a rational world of investors we're dealing with here...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:55
blooper (Araghorn III) ID#207145:: Why do you thing gold is going to Hell next week? So theres going to be a small rally in equities. Brace yourself. No one can see the future. We can buy guess with whisdom.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:53
osh__A (I'm new around here so ) ID#65181:: tell me why the 144 day average is so important ? and your thoughts on silver

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:52
Gollum (@Aragorn III ) ID#43349:: Something on the order of about four bucks a week for six weeks. That gets us down to, what, about 260 something.

Not neccessarily linear. And the absoulute tippy tippy tip spike bottom doesn't last long.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:52
Gold Dancer (There goes the media again : lying) ID#430221:: Does anyone really think that the issue is sex? What Clinton
holds is the trump card. It is all he knows about the Raegan, Bush
Clinton drug running out of Mena. And all the dead bodies.

That is why he was elected. So they could try and keep it under
wraps. After all, just how did Bill get into the White House anyway?
I saw this when he was elected, I just didn't know just how bad it
was. It was just a feeling.

He will not be impeached. IF he is, he will not tell the real
truth because he would be dead in a minute. The newsmedia is in a
state of blackout about what really happened. So is the military.
This is not a free country. I wonder just how far Starr thinks he
can get or wants to get or will be allowed to get.

My guess? This is just a circus to keep the real story
under cover. And everyone is involved in it. Including Starr.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:51
Aragorn III (Gollum---I T) ID#212323:: OK, now about that future...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:48
Aragorn III (Gollum....My, that's an awfully big (and vague) ballpark!) ID#212323:: Do you see this downdraft as a final move to separate the weakest of the long's from their metal? I would agree that a severe spike down ( you DO see it as a spike, don't you? ) would result in hastening in the eventual run-up in price rather than a slow, dithering rise.

Care to stick your neck out a wee bit further? What is your best guess on the nature of the upcoming albeit short-term price drop?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:46
Gollum (Word game) ID#43349:: The word ax or axe can be spelled with either two or three letters. It can, however, always be spelled with only two letters neither of which is a nor x nor e.

What are the two letters?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:46
blooper (Donald) ID#207145:: Your post conflicts with Abby Josef Cohen. I'm kidding. This next dip could be a crash. Very eye opening post.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:41
Donald (The Dow calculated in pre-1933 dollars.) ID#26793:: The Dow closed today at 620.51, down 5.99% from the all time high of 657.72 reached on July 16, 1998. ( THe 1929 high was 386.10 reached on September 3, 1929 )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:39
Gold Dancer (Golden Cheeeshead) ID#430221:: Your post on what Bill Seidman said about US Banks taking
over Jappanese Banks is another vindication of what I mentioned
many weeks ago when I talked about the gold carry trade and gold
leasing. Also the Yen carry trade.

What is going on is the matching of two opposite trades. Yes, it
is a forced merger. But it is also the spoils of WAR.

And these markets are WAR. It is also why the huge short
positions in most currrency, gold and silver markets will not
really be there to force the price up to lofty levels. Yes, the
POG etc will rise. Due to increased demand from investors.

The good news is that after this news is out there will be no
more need for all these trades to continue. So that will mean the
markets can go back to a real supply and demand market.

All aboard, the train is leaving now, Thanks Bill.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:36
blooper (AG's worst fears are about to come true) ID#207145:: Gold will be bought for INVESTMENT purposes. Get back Jack, seeyou later alligator!!!!!!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:35
Gollum (Aragorn III) ID#43349:: Something bigger.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:34
Envy (Future) ID#219363:: Everyone is saying what they're doing with their money, so I kinda feel obligated to post what I'm doing to round out the mix. I'm middle-of-the-road. I sold out of the market before that big down swing and have been sitting in cash since then. It's peaceful here in cash. It's quiet here. It feel safe here. I like it. It makes me smile.

I'm exploring some of the potentials ( high and low ) in various things, but nothing has just grabbed me and said ya need to be doing this. My basic investment strategy right now is to sit quietly and wait with my over-valued $US until something intuitively obvious gets my attention.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:34
tolerant1 (So, Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, Clintler is going to use RECORDS/FILES to bribe) ID#373284:: embarrass/humiliate/ruin people...well that Arkansas pissant can kiss my American ass when it comes time to sign up for his national nazi info go to doctors that will kill you health card...f_ck him and the wife he rode in on...

Wake up people, there is a disease in Our House/White House...the way that aritcle in SALON read you would think Klintler was Jesus Christ uttering the words let he who has not sinned cast the first stone...

except with the demonized twist of Clintler being the sage who knows the sins of all...what a dirtbag...the liar lies and exposes others, what a crock of crap...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:34
ALBERICH__A (Silver: This movement today is nothing more than) ID#254112:: evidence for extreme volatility. Can be caused by somebody who brings the paper down temporarily in order to buy the physical stuff. Volatility is quite typical for silver, especially when the COMEX stocks are at a historical low.

I stay long december silver and go for two weeks with my family to the beach. And I stay short on my december stock index.
Sorry to miss all the excitement here at kitco.
Have a good time, my wonderful kitco friends!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:33
Donald (The numbers below are all 233 day moving averages) ID#26793:: Spot gold $301.46; spot silver $5.63; XAU 79.38; Dow/Gold Ratio 27.95.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:31
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Just got a campaign flyer from Alan Keyes 2000 election committee--) ID#431263:: If elected, he promises to ABOLISH THE INCOME TAX which he believes to be unconstitutional. I would be proud to see a principled conservative black man like Mr. Keyes run against Al Gore, and believe, that with the right running mate and the support of all true conservatives, he could defeat him, even if he is somewhat of a darker horse than most! GO ALAN KEYES!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:30
blooper (rhody) ID#207145:: It is possible gold would come out of the shoot OK., but I doubt it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:29
Donald (The numbers below are all 144 day moving averages.) ID#26793:: Spot gold $296.74; spot silver $5.90; XAU 75.22
.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:27
blooper (rhody) ID#207145:: Sucker rally starts next week.. When it fails, the Dow will roll over and go into crashh mode for a day or two. Gold stocks might go down also. Let them. When the smoke clears there will be a rush to gold as fear will grip.I think the coast is clear after 2 crashlike days. This would be the bottom for gold stocks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:26
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:: Gold/Silver Ratio = 54.45. The 144 day moving average is 50.71. A year ago the ratio was 73.46

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:24
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:: XAU/Spot Ratio = .221. The 144 day moving average is .253. A year ago the ratio was .303. There have been only 8 occasions where the XAU closed in the 63.XX range ( three of them this week! ) Ranked according to the gold price, today is #7. The #1 ranking has not changed.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:23
tolerant1 (Third in the House of Aragorn, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...) ID#373284:: details...details...details...we usually keep them immersed in lanolin to keep their skin soft cause we remember here at Cuervo Central when men were men and women were nothing like Hillary...uh HUH!!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:20
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:: Dow/Gold Ratio = 30.02. The 144 day moving average is 29.47. A year ago the ratio was 25.5

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:20
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (BILL SEIDMAN SEES THE US BANKS TAKING OVER TROUBLED JAPANESE BANKS!) ID#431263:: Just let a reference to the BEAR MARKET slip out by accident! ( Freudian Slip? ) Thinks FED'S next move will be to LOWER rates as US economy SLOWS DOWN! Doesn't think BC's troubles have anything to do with market slide!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:20
rhody (@ blooper: I'll bite. Is the low in when the dollar starts ) ID#411440:: to fall?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:19
Gollum (This could get interesting...) ID#43349:: Clinton's scorched earth plan: If impeachment is pursued he will expose the GOP's hidden dirty laundery.

Then I guess THEY retaliate and then.....

I never DREAMED they would go this far with the public's right to know.

http://www.salonmagazine.com/news/1998/08/05news.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:17
blooper (I think I know when to nail the low on Gold) ID#207145:: Anyone interested?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:17
Aragorn III (Gollum...ballpark...not holding you to anything or setting your prediction up for a fall...) ID#212323:: Just curious. The upcoming gold plunge you see is what, maybe 7 to 10 bucks per oz lower than current price, or something bigger.

Ballpark, if you would be so kind...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:14
RETIRED SOLDIER (Tol1) ID#347235:: I agree completely YEEEEEHAAAAA Shalom to you. I will insure you get address in Garmisch in case you get over.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:11
Gollum (Here's the kind of thing) ID#43349:: they'll be looking at all weekend from the other side of the fence:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/story.html?s=z/reuters/980807/business/stories/stocks_21.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:10
Aragorn III (Hey wait a minute...someone's been holding out!) ID#212323:: I knew of no Cuervettes. When did they arrive on the scene?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:09
tolerant1 (Dutchman, Namaste' and a gulp at ya...The previous advice is solid. You should) ID#373284:: NOT, and I mean NOT mess with options and futures if you are a novice, it would be folly. You are far better off purchasing DROOY or similar stocks for the reasons already stated. There are a great many fabulous gold mining stocks that can be had for pennies of what they are worth...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:07
jims (Fundlementals follow price) ID#252391:: Sam,m I read the silver bull stories that everybody else reads - it is a well advertised fact that inventories at Comex are going down and that there is a deficit between utilization and supply. You can also look at the price action which tells a differenct story - namely, that the buying and holding power of those that believe the story of vainishing supplies isn't great enough to equal the power of those that apparently see the picture otherwise.

Oh yes we hear leasing is the culprit - the leasing of silver will continue until the inventories and the price converge at zero, I guess.

I don't care what the fundlementals are supposed to be they don't make you money if they run counter to the trend which in this case they are - whether you get A+ on the fundlementals is not relevant - getting only C+ on following the trend will make you money.

The trend could change at any time - we'll know it has when the dollar index now takes out this weeks lows , similiar with the bonds and silver closes above $5.50 - a point of building resistance in the face of falling inventories in COMEX - note we don't know and I repeat we don't know what's happening in Europe.

Gollum, tend to think you are right - one little more DOW rally then down - washout coming in metals - if not, will reestablish longs as evidence of trend change manifests itself. I'm ready to be a silver bull but the biggest operative fundlemental now is that there are more sellers than buyers, and I strongly suspect those are informed sellers. The failed rally to $5.85 is the best evidence of that I can find.

Actually, the fact that gold didn't break more today is encouraging either a case of weekend concerns, silver gold spread unwinding, or something in the wind.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:03
Gold Dancer (Dutchman) ID#430221:: I don't mean to too my own horn or my own investments but...

the best leverage play is DROOY. At $2 it is the cost of an
option but has NO expiration date. That is where the smart
money is going. It is extremely leveraged to the price of gold.

There are other stocks but you get the drift....

I own a lot from 1 7/8 to 2 3/8.

It has taken a long time for gold to go up and it hasn't yet.
No matter I will wait. But options? Not for me when I can buy
great gold stocks at these prices.

Just my opinion.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:03
goldfevr (xau's vlv = very-low-volume//when the bear wakes up) ID#434108:: when the ( stock-market ) bear wakes up,
he/she doesn't do so
with a loud shout
..
but rather does so
with a silent reflex
and muffled and unseen
gesture and stretch

the XAU index's
collapsed volume numbers of late
hint of
one of the most important & valuable
timing indicators:

vlv = very - low - volume

'modern' technical charting
advisors & pundits
call this: volatility ratings ...

while they charge -
hook-line-&-sinker...

for it's value/interpretation --
bootie & boot...

But, simply,
it is - when -
prices die,
and volume dwindles & declines...
over time.

XAU volume numbers, values & patterns,
over this last 3 quarters,
and esp. this past quarter,
and esp. this last month or so...
in time

suggest,
that we are in -
the calm before the storm

arriving......

as XAU/gold/silver offer no excitement nor much interest...

while the DJIA claims headlines left & right ...

the many will maneuver themselves
over the cliff
401-k's & mutual-fund leaders of the blind leading the blind...
let's just shoot ...

so,
while the Dow offers it's last
fading smile
the gold-diggers
will sprout forth
eager
to begin

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 17:00
tolerant1 (sam_A, Namaste' and likewise back at ya...and of course not, we will just equip) ID#373284:: you with a Cuervo Central authentic funnel, all of which are high capacity, uh huh...and poured by the scantily clad, and completely politically incorrect Cuervo Central Cuervettes...uh huh...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:59
Gollum (@HighRise) ID#43349:: He has sent a memo to the pot asking it to hold off on using the kettle until they determine if the allegations of it's being black can be determined.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:56
tolerant1 (Boy I bet them folks in Mena is proud of Clintler...yup...uh huh...) ID#373284:: http://www.accessone.com/~rivero/POLITICS/ARCHIVE/CRIMES_OF_MENA.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:55
Gollum (@Dutchman) ID#43349:: I see the bottom mid September, but end of August might be good enough.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:54
Gollum (Recap) ID#43349:: http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/2333.1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:54
HighRise (Texas Drought) ID#401237:: Friday August 7, 1:41 am Eastern Time

Kansas Ranchers Donate Hay to Texas

Texas farmers have told the Kansas couple that hay sellers in Texas have increased prices so high they can no longer afford it. Some of the ranchers also are having to buy water because ponds and streams have dried up, she
said.

``It will never be enough. We need more hay,'' she said. ``This is kind of a drop in the bucket. You are feeding thousands of head of cattle that are starving.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/980807/farm_scene_2.html

Beef prices will be going up.

HighRise

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:50
Dutchman (Anybody?) ID#268260:: If my calculations are correct, the bottom in gold will be firmly in place before the end of August. I am already invested in gold stocks. Can anybody enlighten give me regarding a way to leverage gold futures? For example, can one purchase XAU calls?: how about spreads? I could use some insightful advice from those of you that are much wiser regarding trading the precious!

Thanks

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:48
PMF (@ALBERICH__A) ID#224363:: Very interesting article...

So if the US has a 'hidden agenda' vis-a-vis 'fixing Japan's problems', what happens if the Japanese Government figures it out and decides to sticks a pin in America's ballon.

( i.e. ) sell all those US-denominated investments owned by the Japanese Government and use the resulting funds to recapitalize the banking sector.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:43
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (BILL WOLMAN SAYS US SLOWING) ID#431263:: and that the next FED move will be to LOWER RATES NOT raise them! DEFLATION will rule till Asia begins to recover or the Japanese sell their US PAPER!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:43
HighRise (More of the Clinton Sleaze Team) ID#401237:: ``I cannot say whether Ambassador Richardson lied under oath, as this story asserts, but it is my responsibility to find out. For this reason, I have sent a letter today to President Clinton asking him to withhold confirmation of Richardson until we have had time to follow-up these allegations,'' said Murkowski, a Republican from Alaska.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/clinton_sc_1.html

HighRise

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:43
sam__A (@ tolerant1 - As long as neck braces don't get in the way of hoisting a pint) ID#286253:: Namaste and three gulps to ya!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:42
Gold Dancer (Leland) ID#430221:: Thanks for post on Bill Fleckenstein's aritcle. His comments
on Alan Greenspam vindicates everything I have said about that
patetic little man. Clinton is a knat on the wall in importance
compared to the power of a Fed Chairman.

However, some people love the circus.

The revenge will be the possible end of the Central Bank System
as we know it. Greenspam was that bad or was it good?

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:42
goldfevr (JTF@16:09//Commercials completing their buying) ID#434108:: Exactly;
you're exactly on the right track;
as are they - almost always...
and that offers pretty - good odds: almost always...

The trick is,
the COT doesn't always offer such an ideal/classic pattern...
but
often other times, it does...

so...
we can use this valuable tool of timing...

gold recently found itself
with a 'new-chapter' of commmercials
net-buying values
...
exceeding it's previously decline net-buying pattern

thuis suggests a new possibility...
of a whole-new bearish pattern for gold prices...

however,
the way is not clear...
in terms of this often powerful, reliable indicator...
( -remember: never swing on a single branch; including COT )

there are times
when COT values, when they reach new 'extreme' values...
are 'hinting'
of a last final
''hoooraw''
for what every primary trend, has last been 'dominant' ....
or
'the case' the trend - so to speak....

Thus gold's current price pattern,
and it's relevant COT/Commercial patterns,
may be signalling...
a final
last shake-out of the pre-mature precious-metals bulls..
just as the DJIA rallies..
to its final top.

I tend to agree today,
with my previous intuitive sense,
that the DJIA bull-market, birthed in 1982,
will not be over;
until a final suck of the suckers
devours them almost all
with accelerating drama
as headlines
lure even the last hesitant
in
at the devouring top
...
where DJIA at 10,000
is not beyond
the reach
of this
pathetic, miserable 'mop'

meanwhile,
I hope i'm wrong ...
on that possible hyperbolic spike & top...
because...
back down,
and low,
among the manure-filled fields
of the gold-diggers
digging deep

we may yet find gold
spiking down to final dramatic unbelievable lows...

but
a-las...
i don't believe it...
even so

i sense, rather - a seemingly meaningless lather:
where -
gold will continue to waddle, waffle,
and wiggle its way along

on this - it's boring bottom
and silent song
almost 3-quarter's year's long

yet unheard
by the heedless throng

and it will build momentum
rising slowly
at first

in the quarter we're now in
and the final, as well
of this year

thus,
while we shed another tear
we will, ultimately...
be of good cheer

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:39
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (GOOD ARTICLE HERR ALBERICH--) ID#431263:: Bottom line--SELL THE HELL OUT'A THE YEN AND WAIT IN CASH AND GOLD FOR CHINA AND THE TIGERS TO DEVALUE!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:38
tolerant1 (RETIRED SOLDIER, Namaste' and an Island that is Long afterDOW gulp to ya...) ID#373284:: The big difference though, they took a job, we vote for, then pay the governmental whores to rob us and we don't get the courtesy of a reach around...uh huh...what a racket they have huh...uh huh...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:34
Gollum (@tolerant1) ID#43349:: I agree. Neck braces will be in order.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:33
Avalon (hmmm..................how much does a lifetime to National Enquirer..........) ID#254269:: cost ? tolly's comments about mainstream journalists writing for N.E. blows me away !

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:33
Gollum (@Trinovant ) ID#43349:: Nah, it's next month's time magazine.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:33
tolerant1 (Mr. Mick, Namaste' and a giant gulp to you and yours, hope all is well on that end...) ID#373284:: Japan is a basket case...who knows what is REALLY going on behind the scenes in the Japanese banking system...they have spent so much time with their head up Uncle Sam's ah...Hmmmm...you get the picture, that there is no way to tell what the newly installed honchos may do.

With regards to Davidson and his comments, I refer to The Great Reckoning wherein he and Mogg speculated that if Japan's economic situation deteriorated to such an extent of absolute chaos there could very well be a military take over...now that would be interesting eh...and it would seem to me that they have been hovering over the chaos target for some time now...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:32
RETIRED SOLDIER (Tol1) ID#347235:: That just proves all the whores ar not in Govt.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:32
sam__A (@ jims re your 16:19 - Are you questioning silver fundamentals?) ID#286253:: Or simply making the observation that markets don't always follow the fundamentals? If the latter, then I thank you for your deep insight. If the former, then please: make your case.

And please - no fuzzy-wuzzy arguments like deflation will suppress the price. Be precise, be substantial.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:31
Gollum (@jims ) ID#43349:: Starting last week in response to Skip I said that if I were he I would be out of precious metals before Thursday. This was to see if they would do anything before next week. I didn't feel comfortable with waiting as long as today ( Friday ) since next week the PM's, gold in particular go very bearish at least until mid September.

I haven't changed my mind. Next week we get perhaps a one week DOW rally before it coninues to the depths of December. Gold heads dwown till September.

I could easily be wrong. I often am.

We shall watch and see.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:30
Gold Dancer (John Disney -Thanks) ID#430221:: I know that made wave 5 down. That is why I bought 7000 more
at 1 7/8. A litle early, but only by a few hours. Up more next
week. There will be no more big corrrections. Fun time coming.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:28
ALBERICH__A (Dr. Michael Hudson about the US - Japanese Economic Power Struggle) ID#254112:: ---------------------------------------------------------------------
Truth in Media's GLOBAL WATCH Bulletin 98/8-2 5-Aug-98
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Topic: ASIAN AFFAIRS
----------------------------------

A Well-known Economist Explains Real U.S. Agenda in Japan's Financial Crisis

HARNESSING JAPAN'S EXPORTERS AND LIBERATING ITS AILING BANKS
By Dr. Michael Hudson

Foreigners Trying to Buy Control of Japan's Economy with Japan's Own Savings
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW YORK - As Japanese and foreign investors shift money out of the Nikkei stocks into U.S. and other foreign stocks and bonds, America and Japan are at loggerheads over whether the yen should continue to depreciate, or whether Japan should sell off its international reserves to support the yen ( and thus to prevent Japanese exporters from benefiting from a falling yen ) .

To understand this economic fight, one needs to cut through the fog of
euphemism being used by advocates of open markets and quick solutions. One needs a devil's dictionary to provide translations of the euphemisms being thrown about. For instance, dealing with Japan's banking mess is
becoming a euphemism for selling Japanese banks and their real estate
assets to vulture investors at a few cents on the dollar, that is, a
fraction of what the buyers expect the property to be worth upon economic
recovery.

Wanting Japan to sell off its banks to foreign white saviors, US
officials attribute any and all Japanese economic problems to the nation's reluctance to hurry up and sell its banks. The Japanese and US media duly record the anguished cries of American officials that the declining yen is a terrible thing for Asia ( meaning that Japanese producers may undersell other Asian exporters ) . They also complain that a poorer Japan means lower US exports. This conveniently blaming America's own declining living standards on Japan, rather than on the downsizing and flexible employment policies that are now troubling American labor.

Expanding the economy by borrowing more money is becoming a euphemism for buying more US exports. US officials have made it clear that this is the only kind of Japanese economic expansion they want to see, except for more Japanese loans to troubled East Asian countries to enable those debtors to pay US banks. Consumers and taxpayers, not banks, other financial institutions and real estate investors are to bear the cost of past mistakes.

As long as Japanese newspaper readers can be convinced that international
financial spokesmen are well-trained technocrats who know what they are
doing - rather than foreign vultures looking for a quick meal - there will be little questioning of the series of blunders that has depressed Japan's economy.

In sum, LDP ( ruling party ) politicians are trying to convince the public
that everything can now be fixed by following policies designed in America.
The Ministry of Finance ( and the LDP behind it ) have become conduits to
enact US-sponsored policies.

It is not Japan that is being helped, but America's own financial industry.
Japanese savers are to be squeezed more than ever to finance the US economy in this new scenario. That is the real meaning of open markets and the Big Bang.

In analyzing the dynamics at work that determine the yen's international
value, it is important to recognize that exchange rates in today's world
are determined by capital flows, not by relative product prices, e.g., the price of McDonald hamburgers or other living costs. Most currency
transactions are no longer associated with imports and exports of goods and services. Rather, as the world economy has become globalized, international investment by money managers buying foreign stocks and bonds has expanded to reach a much greater magnitude than foreign trade.

Since Japan's Big Bang, savings have been flowing out, mainly to the US
stock and bond markets. These capital outflows lead to falling currency
values. This typically helps the nation's exporters, as it does those of
Japan today.

America wants this money. Merrill Lynch and other money managers report
that they are getting rich off the commissions being earned from Japanese
savers who are taking their money out of the banks and postal savings
system and turning them over to America's global stock market firms. Stock prices for these companies are booming, carrying up other US stock market prices. International bond markets also are booming.

The problem is, what will the Americans buy in return? Certainly not more
Japanese electronic and automotive products, for this would eat into the
markets already targeted by US industrial firms. American industrialists do not want to see Japanese companies benefit from the falling yen ( which
makes Japanese labor priced lower in US-dollar terms. Raw materials prices, machinery prices and other basic costs are dollarized, and hence their dollar prices are unaffected by shifts in national currency values ) .
America may threaten to raise tariffs against Japan's depreciating
currency, and US trade negotiators have let the government know that they may insist on more voluntary export controls. They also may demand that Japan guarantee US exporters a larger stipulated share of its domestic market.

Most of all, however, US officials are now insisting that Japan create an
extraordinary investment opportunity to attract the Big Bang savings
outflows back to Japan. The US solution is for Japan to sell its capital
assets - its distressed banks, its distressed real estate, and its
distressed companies, all at fire-sale prices.

In other words, the US financial sector will turn around and recycle the
savings its institutions are collecting from Japanese consumers by lending it out to sophisticated vulture investors to buy Japanese assets. In this way, foreigners will be able to buy control over Japan's economy by using Japan's own consumer savings! This is the basic meaning of the diplomatic war now being waged over the exchange rate of Japan's yen vis- a-vis the dollar.

Until this alternative can be implemented, American officials are demanding that the Bank of Japan begin selling off its dollar reserves - that is, its holdings of US Treasury bills - month by month to offset ( finance ) the outflow of Japanese savings to the United States. This means that as Japanese private-sector holdings of US stocks and bonds increases, official Japanese dollar holdings of US Treasury securities will be sold off so as to maintain balance in the foreign exchange market, thereby holding the yen steady. This is the new meaning of equilibrium in today's diplomatic discussions.

At the end of this process, Japan's foreign reserves - the measure of its
international power and economic autonomy - will be stripped away. Japan
will have been reduced to the status of a third world country. That is now called being a good global citizen.

The United States also is demanding that Japan's government cut taxes so as to put more money into the hands of Japanese, knowing full well that they will save rather than spend most of it. In effect, Japan's government is to run deeper into debt so that Japan may finance more U.S. debt. In this way, debt in both countries can grow at a rate able to absorb the exponential growth in savings by the world's financial institutions -- pension funds,
insurance companies, banks and private investment funds.

As in most third world countries, a well-to-do class of cosmopolitan
investors may benefit from having placed their savings outside the country, safely in the United States. But Japan's own official reserves will be emptied out. At that point, further outflows ( flight capital ) will push the currency down, wrecking the economy and creating a chronic decline in living standards, Latin American style.

This is elementary international economic theory. Why is it not being
taught in Japanese schools and reported in the Japanese press? Is a
prerequisite for Japanese foreign service or Ministry of Finance position
that one is ignorant of these basic truths?

The above facts do not bode well for Japan's immediate future. They suggest that each month will bring a new crisis, which will be used to panic the Japanese public into pressing for action.

In sum, the crisis over the yen's fall over the past six weeks is NOT the result of Japan's inability to solve the problem of bad bank balance
sheets. The Big Bang resulted from a change in Japanese investment laws and practices, not from any sudden worsening in the bank situation. The Big Bang will continue - indeed, the US yelling and screaming over the crisis will catalyze Japanese fears, and consequently their desire to shift yet more savings into dollar-denominated assets.

So what is the Bank of Japan to do next month, and the month after that -
$25 billion after 25 billion, month after month? It has a choice. To do
NOTHING will simply let the yen decline, as yen savings are exchanged for
dollarized bonds and stocks.

This decline in the yen will help Japanese exporters somewhat. It will
increase the yen-value of US and other foreign assets of Japanese companies
and savers. It also will infuriate the United States, and may prompt other Asian countries to devalue THEIR currencies, so as to offset any
competitive advantage achieved by Japanese exporters as a result of the
fact that the yen's value is determined NOT by commodity prices, but by
capital flows.

The Big Bang has the makings of a chronic POLITICAL crisis. That is what
the Japanese public has not been told.

For decades, Americans have used opportunity as a synonym for crisis. US diplomats are hoping that the yen's decline may convince Japan that they have to save matters by selling their bank assets at distress prices to foreign investors.

Will this solve the problem? Indeed! Capital outflows by Japanese savers
into US bonds and stocks will be offset by capital inflows by US vulture
investors to buy undervalued Japanese assets.

Japanese savings will help push up US stock and bond prices ( while reducing Japanese securities prices accordingly ) . And the Americans will get capital gains on distressed Japanese bank assets - while pushing for an asset reflation that will make homes and office space even MORE expensive for most Japanese.

What this kind of recovery means for the average Japanese under these
conditions is rising housing prices. For Japanese industry, it means rising land prices for office space and factories - not exactly the way to increase Japan's competitive power in the world economy.

The American cure thus promises to erupt into a full-scale new disease, a re-inflated bubble economy. What is remarkable is that nobody seems to be suggesting any alternative policies. Perhaps Japan needs not only a new banking system, but a new educational system, above all a re-designed
economics curriculum.

Can anyone explain how Japan benefits from this?
------------
Dr. Michael Hudson heads up the Institute for the Study of Long-Term
Economic Trends ( ISLET ) in New York. He is also a research fellow at the
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, author of many books on
international finance, and editor of 42 books on economic history. He is a former balance-of-payments economist for the Chase Manhattan Bank and
Arthur Andersen & Co.; the chief economist of the Hudson Institute; and a
consultant to UNITAR, US, Canadian and Mexican government agencies and
corporate clients.
------------

TiM Ed.: Dr. Hudson's analysis squares fully with our own conclusions about the squeeze play the U.S. is putting on Japan. As reported in the TiM GW Bulletin 97/11-12 ( 11/14/97 ) , the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, warned his Japanese counterpart in a private letter, disclosed by the New York Times on Nov. 13, that the Japanese should not be tempted to export their way out of their troubles. Which is kind of like telling a drowning victim to keep gulping water instead of swimming, we said at the time.

----
Bob Djurdjevic
TRUTH IN MEDIA
Phoenix, Arizona
e-mail: bobdj@djurdjevic.com

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:27
blooper (Boo Hoo) ID#207145:: Me not like stocks any more. Me sell and go away for 5 years.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:25
blooper (1 more little rally then over the falls) ID#207145:: The descent will be straight down to 8184. Then straight down again to 7390. OH Hell.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:25
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Herr Sam--) ID#431263:: Count yer blessins! Be glad you ain't flyin' over to Kenya or Mozambique?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:23
Mr. Mick (Tolerant1, what ever happend to Davidson's comment about.........) ID#345321:: Japan having enough cash reserves to weather a financial storm? Do they still have it? I know they have been selling US treasuries for a while, but not in really big quantities, have they?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:22
Trinovant (Gollum... methinks you have a history book from the future) ID#359316:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:22
tolerant1 (all you boys and girls out their singing the death and near death of gold and silver) ID#373284:: I suggest you get neck braces, next week when they move it will be swift, sudden and to the upside...uh huh...I also bought extra eggs for those of you that miss me...NOT...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:22
Leland (If You Haven't Read Fiend's SuperBear Page Lately, Here's His Best One) ID#316193:: http://thegreaterfool.com/an_interview_with_bill_fleckenst.htm

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:20
sam__A (Am going to Korea next week) ID#286253:: Just found out. Last time there ( January ) we were actually refused entry to bars. Not a friendly place there for us white boys these days. Not looking forward to this.....

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:20
John Disney__A (woops..) ID#24135:: gold dancer ..
make that wave five down

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:19
jims (Another winning weeks in the PM pits) ID#252391:: So Kaplan is EX BULLISH gold, up from strongly bullish. Well have to give him one thing he's getting more bullish as the price falls not visa versa. So the DOW rally evaporated, going into the weekend I'm not to surprised. Gettin' to be nothing goes up anymore - its called deflation.

Now I was sure sivler would go up from $5.45. Heck aren't we running out of silver - where are those great fundlementals that matter - play them again SAM.

Seems the chart has this little down arrow - certainly soon we'll see those llimit up days. Gollum says beginning next week, or was that last week he said this week

Precious metals are in a bear market -

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:19
Gollum (Perfect) ID#43349:: See the cute little uptick? Like the hook on the end of the line. Next week, small DOW rally.

Unfortuneatly next week also does the big gold plunge. Ah well, it will be September soon enough.

For anyone who is bored with quiescent markets, you'll LOVE next week.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:17
John Disney__A (I like drooy now) ID#24135:: Gold dancer ..
That little shake out last
week did it a world of good ..
Cleaned out a little wave down
I think .

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:17
sam__A (Breaking the Disney Law of Gold) ID#286253:: is extremely significant. Want gold be to proxy for dollar, not yen. If we do, alas, we will have seen the remonetization of the noble metal.

sam the unhappy A.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:16
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Herr Tricky--) ID#431263:: My rotties inform me that DOW 5000 might be a bit too optimistic? Heh..heh..heh!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:14
tolerant1 (It may surprise some of you to know that some of the top journalists work for the) ID#373284:: Star and Enquirer, etc. because they pay one heck of a whole lot more money than the mainstream newspapers...a great deal more money...the truth is stranger than fiction...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:13
Monkee Person (@6Pak) ID#288105:: Thanks for that 6Pak. You know, a couple of months back the IMF saw fit to issue the U.S. a warning. Now, all of a sudden we're in a virtuous cycle.

What a ruse!

When's someone gonna hand these guys their heads.

See what their up to in Thailand. They're permitting Thailand to slide on the agreements. I believe there have been four ( 4 ) thus far. Latest issue of Far Eastern Economic Review even reports that the Thais are calling the shots now, because the IMF would like to make Thailand a model of success. A model that would call off the dogs. Take the heat off their policies.

They're a dangerous lot.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:12
tricky (A guy in the bond pit on cnbc said that there were lots) ID#304282:: of rumurs of a chinese devaluation this weekend. DOW 5000 isn't that far away.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:12
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (WHAT A YOKE!!) ID#431263:: A GOLDMAN who's BULLISH on the BIG CAPS and BONDS! What will they dream up next? And Al, What about investor psychology? Heh..heh..heh.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:09
JTF (COT -- commercial hedging) ID#57232:: goldfevr: Appreciate your comments about the commitments of the big commercial firms. Makes alot of sense that the buying of long positions tapers off just before the market rises -- should be perfectly countercyclical if the pros guess it right.
Am I on the right track? Thanks in advance.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:08
RETIRED SOLDIER (Avalon) ID#347235:: I didnt think you actually read N.E. but it must be a slow day for Drudge? Surely he could find better than they for a source? Shalom to you.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:05
sam__A (silver stocks flat) ID#286253:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:04
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (DOLLAR UP 2 FULL YEN!!--) ID#431263:: yet GOLD firmly closed above $290 @ $290.50!! Maybe Dizzy's gold/yen observation earlier today is spot on!! It takes a village by gar!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:04
JTF (Mexico down more than 3% today) ID#57232:: All: We worry about the US markets, but so far our problems are minimal, compared to Mexico for example. New lows today. Wonder where the vanishing money is going. And -- I think Brazil is behaving the same way as Mexico. The rolling market failures and market devaluations have finally hit our shores. How is Canada doing, marketwise?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 16:02
goldfevr (Revised Commandment:) ID#434108:: Thow shalt have no other gods...
except Moody's valuation of any nation's credit rating...

P.S.
Who is evaluating Moody's credit,
and rating
and track-record?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:58
Monkee Person (Well, at least someone's got their head above the parapet.) ID#288105:: Mexico stocks drop on Moody's comments

MEXICO CITY, Aug 7 ( Reuters ) - The Mexican bourse accelerated earlier losses in late trade on Friday due to abearish reaction to comments by Moody's Investors Service on Mexico's debt rating.

The leading IPC share index ( ^MXX - news ) was down 82.28 points, or 2.07 percent, at 3,899.45.

Although Moody's maintained its Ba2 rating for Mexico, it said that rating was constrained by Mexico's large debt and debt servicing burden.

Dealers said investors were unsettled by the rating agency's comments that the country was vulnerable to reversals in the U.S. economy, world oil prices, international interest rates and wide swings in investor
confidence.

``What's happening is that Moody's released a statement saying that even though its maintains its Ba2 rating ( of Mexican debt ) , it paints a very pessimistic outlook for the country,'' a desk trader said in Mexico.

Moody's statement said Mexico's situation was further complicated by its current account gap widening in recent months, ``not only as a consequence of the Asian crisis on export prices, but also because of rapid import growth due to a rebound in private consumption and investment.''

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:57
tricky (Favors was asked what he saw as support for the DOW and) ID#304282:: HE LAUGHED!! He sees a MINIMUM decline to 7390. I was mad Jerry didn't get to talk very much. It was almost like the interviewer was scared he would say something that would scare the viewers. They need to be scared.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:55
Gold Dancer ( My prediction of DROOY) ID#430221:: closing at $2 on Friday came true. Higher next week.

GO GOLD.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:53
tolerant1 (6PAK, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...after watching Japan for the last year or so as) ID#373284:: best I can figure it they have been colonized...plain and simple, nothing they do is in their best interests on the other hand, while doing nothing, they serve no interests...only aiding in sending the world into a massive deflationary spiral...I am not one of those that believes that printing money can avert deflation, in addition, with Y2K coming, by combining the two I see a mushroom cloud where the financial world used to be, hence worldwide bankruptcy...but that is the way of fiat paper, easy come, easy go...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:52
6pak (USofA @ Safeguard - IMF) ID#335190:: August 7, 1998

FOCUS-IMF sees virtuous cycle of U.S. growth

WASHINGTON ( Reuters ) - The International Monetary Fund praised Washington for building a virtuous cycle of strong growth and low inflation Friday and said interest rates were appropriate for now.

But IMF directors, in their annual review of the U.S. economy, said the United States might have to tighten monetary policy to safeguard hard-won anti-inflation gains. Domestic price stability and sustainable growth were the best possible U.S. contribution to the world economy, it said.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/IMF-USA.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:50
PH in LA ($30,000 introduction for RJ) ID#225408:: RJ:

Thank you for the invitation to have the first word. But mine are not really offered as first words because they contain nothing not published here already by others. They are intended to merely weave together a few threads to serve as a springboard and preface for your own remarks.

As I said in my last words, assuming a connection between gold at $30,000 and good men's suits at $30,000 implies that our financial system will go on creaking and groaning along much as it has done for the past several thousand years. Some would say that since it has done so, so will it continue to do so. Others disagree.

As I recall, the last good men's suit I bought cost over twice more than $286, the price of gold as I write. It was a very nice, medium-weight wool, double-breasted, black suit intended to be worn in some recitals I was playing in Europe at the time. It did not include necessary accoutrements such as shirt, tie or shoes, items which ought to be included in any respectable good men's suit of clothes as they certainly would have been in the 18th or 19th centuries, the middle ages or as I suspect sandels would have been included in Roman times. From this I conclude that: a. ) either the price of suits is skewed in this modern world, or, b. ) the value of gold is acting unnaturally.

A. certain Greenspan recently confirmed ANOTHER's assertion that the Central Banks use leasing to hold down the price of gold. Why would they want to do this? In the case of the US Central Bank ( who noone seems to aledge is even involved in leasing ) , one rationale would be to give the impression that the US Dollar is still as good as gold ( which it once was ) . The Europeans are preparing the introduction of the Euro, which they have said will be backed by gold ( several percentages have been bandied about; no definite commitment has been announced to date. ) However, anyone can surmise that by holding gold down now at a low price ( by leasing ) until the introduction of the Euro, the value of those holdings and resultant perception of strength of their currency would rise with a rise in the price of gold after its introduction. This leads us to suspect that the price of gold will rise ( perhaps precipitantly ) following Jan. 1, 1999. In fact, we should begin to see this rise as soon as investors realize what is happening, anticipate the unfolding of events, and factor them into the markets. Until then, we can expect to see from the CBs a rich mixture of leasing, sales, negative propaganda, announcements of minor players' sell-offs ( witness recent Portugese and Dutch sales ) and any other kind of deception available ( rumors of future Swiss sales, etc. ) to help hold down the price of gold and keep the situation under control. Exactly what we have been seeing for some time.

All this hardly looks like the kind of stability implied by the ounce of gold/suit of men's clothing school of thought. In fact, according to ANOTHER, we are actually standing on the brink of a momumental change in human monetary conventions unlike any other. One that has been brewing since the Bretton Woods agreement before the end of WWII, and further confirmed in the 1970s by the uncoupling of gold from the world's reserve currency and made necessary by the modern world's dependence on oil. The instability implied by the LBMA's derivitive trading also seems to confirm the need for some international readjustment which the introduction of the Euro ( with its gold backing ) promises to supply. Currency reserves in US dollars held by the new, gold-backed European Central bank would probably only serve for minor defensive currency actions and would likely eventually be sold off.

With this backdrop of world events, it has been suggested that gold and ( according to tradition ) suits could rise as high as $30,000/oz. Obviously, the disruption implied by such a precipitous rise in the cost of living ( a package of toilet paper could cost $806.52 ) would be overwhelming. For one thing, people on fixed incomes could not afford to wipe their asses. Pension funds would not function as intended. Taxes could not be collected. Civilization would be in even worse shape than in the worst of the Y2K ( Sky Is Falling ) predictions.

But just wait one darn minute, here!

In several third-world countries, where gold has risen 100's of percentage points lately, toilet paper is still ( barely ) affordable, so is food, and myriad other items necessary for life. Life does go on. People don't have gold, though. ( The S. Koreans supposedly turned it all in to their government. ) Do they miss it? Most probably do not.

Isn't it possible, that with major reorganization of the financial system, that only gold might be revalued to be used as money? Life could go on as before, except that gold watches would no longer be affordable. ( My present one is made of titanium, which is more durable and lighter that gold. ) People could still use toilet paper and wear suits. Only gold ( and perhaps other precious metals ) would be different. They would be money, again. Just as they have always been.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:50
goldfevr (PMF@14:02 - unhappy campers increasing) ID#434108:: the rising flood
keeps rising

paper money lets the blood
of once healthy men
and women

the flood of seething careening tide
of
hot-money capital
desperate to find
its next temporary home
in which to pretend
to abide

will imperial us dollars
continue yet much longer
to gobble up
canadian resources
and enterprises, and livelihoods
and lives

like the slaughter already perpetrated
across once and recent
triumphant tigers
of se asia's
cultures, nations, economies, and families,
and individual souls

who will be next
to bow their heads
in blind duty
sacrificing themselves, their livelihoods,
and their sacred honor...
to the gorge-ing gulliotine
of paper money & artificial credit aristocrats

who 'reside' in devouring interest-rates'
of orchestrated, exploiting-exploiters, and their
false-pride.

Until sufficient numbers, of sufficient individuals,
insist on the honor, integrity, and endurance,
of gold-based money & credit;
the swirling sea of hot-capital,
will continue
on its' flight
and 'flee'

from this temporary home
to that one
whatever - next one
happens to be....

till most of humanity
are left
seemingly destitute

and seemingly
all alone

in this old
dying
false-money
inequity

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:46
6pak () ID#335190:: August 7, 1998

- Under pressure to resuscitate Japan's
economy, newly elected Prime Minister
Keizo Obuchi pledged deep tax cuts and
bold action Friday to clean up debt-ridden
banks. His words, though, were met with
skepticism from skittish financial markets

TOKYO ( AP ) -- Under pressure to resuscitate Japan's economy, newly elected Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi pledged deep tax cuts and bold action Friday to clean up debt-ridden banks. His words, though, were met with skepticism from skittish financial markets.

I have a strong sense that without courage today, there is no tomorrow -- mark my words, Obuchi said in his first major policy speech, which, despite its forceful language, offered little in the way of new initiatives.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Japan-Economy.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:45
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (ROLLIN' ROLLIN' ROLLIN'!) ID#431263:: Keep those DUMPSTERS rollin' DOWSLIDE! My Favor ( s ) ite Jerry says 8524 was a key Gann quarterly chart support line and it got taken out on Aug. 4. Only way to stay bullish is to take out 9412! Now targeting 7390! Looking for one new rally next week to SHORT into! Just like March 10, 1937 and Jan.1, 1961 and Jan. 11, 1973 AND 1929!! GRRRRR!! Heh..heh..heh!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:41
Monkee Person (@ S.A. in the dumper.) ID#288105:: It's really something, how precious little has been said about the East Asian effect on S.A. corporates. Always Asian effect on U.S. equities.

How about Asian effect on S.A., then S.A. AND Asian effect on U.S. equities markets?

U.S. money center banks are up to their eyeballs again down there, both on and off the books. There was an article in Business Week a couple of years back on how lending had been regulated after the last debacle, but that lenders were circumventing the reg.'s.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:41
2BR02B? (woman.com- great program but no documentation) ID#266105:: Shelton/Beyond Bretton Woods

http://www.intellectualcapital.com/issues/98/0806/icbusiness1_b.asp

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:41
Avalon (Retired Soldier. Like you, I have no time for National Enquirier; however) ID#254269:: that story about Kendall doing work for N.E. was posted on Drudge's site.

I find it incredible that it was posted on Drudge.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:37
tolerant1 (JTF, Namaste and a gulp to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...I kinda figure) ID#373284:: he is on the COSCO pension plan...and the sad part it is probably our money...cynical, nah...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:35
JTF (It's possible) ID#57232:: tolerant1: I would not want to be in WJC's shoes. To his supporters, he is either an asset or a liability. And -- if even 10% of the Mena related stories are true -- his supporters are not about to keep a liability for any length of time.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:35
RETIRED SOLDIER (Avalon) ID#347235:: Surely no one here takes the National Enquirer seriously, I wont even buy iy for my Lhasa Apso to poop on, use the NY Times for that. Am glad to be going to Germany for at least 5 years to let things settle down while I ski in the Bavarian Alps!! Shalom to all when I am settled I will give address to friends privately to inform them they have a place to stay in one of the most beautiful spots on earth most of them have been
notified more will be.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:30
tolerant1 (Ya never know, ya just never know...if we get lucky Clintler will get the same) ID#373284:: travel agent as Ron Brown...the truth is stranger than fiction...nah...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:28
JTF (FBI file blackmail) ID#57232:: Spudmaster: You could be right. J Edgar Hoover did that too. Could effectively stymie an attempt at impeachment proceedings. The Janet Reno contempt citation was due to a small group of Congressmen that may not fear the consequences. Regardless, I sense a gradual weakening of WJC's support. At the very least, he is a lame duck a little earlier than usual.
When the people and the media start clamoring for justice -- as they eventually will as the US markets fade into the sunset -- Congress will regrow their bakcbone.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:22
John Disney__A (I feel GOOD..) ID#24135:: about gold ..
the gold/silver ratio broke 54 ..
now 54.44 and gold in yen
looks like in excess of 41,800 ..
if true it broke the most recent
high.. I hope it slipped its yen
link.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:22
PMF (SAM_A) ID#224363:: Low CDN dollar is definitely good for exporters that utilize CDN raw materials ( like programmers, lead, etc. ) PROVIDED THAT the market for those exports doesn't die. So far, the market for technology exports has held up much better than those based on basic commodities.

However, I think we have gone beyond the point of 'good' and are now well into the phase of 'dangerous'.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:22
2BR02B? (listen up you protein-based peripherals) ID#266105:: Hamilton on gold.

http://www.polyconomics.com/

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:18
JTF (The heat is too much for me - reduced long position) ID#57232:: blooper, gollum: Just sold my long term retail mutual funds ( effectively no commission cost ) . Regained most of losses over last two weeks. Could be that this market rallies more next week, but todays rally fizzled much too quickly. Would have like at least two days up. And I see too many storm clouds gathering. Didn't sell my gold mutual funds - will just grin and bear it as they will probably go down next week. I think it is just a matter of time before AG must come to grips with the dollar problem, as I do not think that talking the markets down will do it. Unless the worldwide financial situation stabliizes, he will eventually be forced to effectively 'buy' gold to bring the dollar down. Otherwise he faces financial oblivion if the dollar continues to rise -- we certainly cannot afford to lose our American trading partners -- Canada and South America.
gollum: I think you may be spot on -- that the turmoil is a sign of some sort of turning point -- perhaps in the US dollar. Clinton's slowly fading fortunes are part of the same package.
It will be interesting to see how much gold equities drop with what appears to be the Yuan devaluation. If we are near a gold equity bottom, gold equities should start to show strength relative to the regular equities, even if all go down next week.
Cry0 is looking good, and the JOC is still above its low for this year.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:18
tolerant1 (gunrunner, Namaste' and a howling gulp to ya...priceless...Avalon, Namaste') ID#373284:: and a gulp to ya for helping me on that...why did he apologize...I wouldn't have

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:13
sam__A (@ trader_vic re your 14:59 - Actually, I feel great about the coming doom.) ID#286253:: I just don't feel good about today's mrkts. When the day you describe comes, I will make money. But as for today, well, it was a sad day for sam__a. Didn't get flushed out, but didn't trade it well. Lightened up between 5.40-5:60. But then re-loaded a little back at 5:40, even though I thought the 5:20's would have to be tested to find bottom. So I am kinda p-ssed off at myself.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:12
Gollum (Levers) ID#35571:: Well, enough playing around. I'm going to turn the DOW levers up enough now so that the tail end up and out will suck a bunch of eager marketeers in for next week.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:04
John Disney__A ( Bens very political ...) ID#24135:: your cheesiness ..

He says he wants to woof with your Rotties .. he
says one woof from him and they'll turn around and
eat your liver ...
.. natural leader you see .. learned from Mandela..
heh ..heh ..heh .. woof

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 15:00
Gollum (Changing banners) ID#35571:: Out on the street they are taking all the buy on dips banners down. I think they are going to replace them with sell on rallies banners. I guess they have seen how much fun goldbugs have had these last few years, they want to have a go at it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:59
trader_vic__A (Sam_A:) ID#369352:: The reason you don't feel good about it, is because it is not a good thing for anyone really...the problem with high flying markets is that they become low flying disasters. The only way to feel good is to get out of the way of the freight train before it hits you. Pay off Credit Card debt, start saving cash on hand, buy gold in both numismatic and raw metal, put a plan together that allows you to live on what you have for as long as you can...and pray that you don't have to use it. Those best prepared will be able to enjoy the ride while others suffer...just as you as a gold bug are suffering now and the dippies are still at the party...what goes around comes around...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:54
Tortfeasor (Camel market) ID#36965:: The paper market looks like the hump on a camel today. Looked like gangbusters originally. Now it looks like it may be gangbanged by market sellers. Our friend gold seems to be inching out of its nasty posture of eary this morning. It become obvious that unless the markets fall considerably gold is going to stay in the financial gutter.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:54
sam__A (@ PMF, ORCA - Hi-tech brain drain) ID#286253:: I am a S/W engineer currently doing a job for a firm which exports 95% of its output. The lower dollar for us is fantastic. Margins are fatter. We are growing. We are hiring more people at better rates.

If the Americans are stupid enough to let us devalue against them, then I say - Right on, Dude. Meetcha at Whistler and we'll talk about it.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:53
gunrunner (Tol-1) ID#354133:: I meant that you might get a kick out of the article...

Flash Gordon, glad you're O.K.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:53
Cage Rattler (Rand crash doubles gold earnings) ID#33184:: THE South African gold mining industry's earnings have grown tenfold since the June 1997 quarter, with earnings more than doubling in the last three months to R552-million, industry analysts said on Thursday.
Should the weak rand continue to boost the export price of bullion, industry earnings are set to double again in the next three months to R1,1-billion.

This estimate is despite a drop in the quantity of gold produced, from 113 318kg in the first quarter to 110 100kg in the second quarter.
The restructuring in the industry over the past year has meant that earnings have grown tenfold from an overall loss of R156,8-million in the June 1997 quarter, to a profit of R258,8-million in the first quarter of 1998, to a R552-million profit in the second quarter of this year. Pretax profits for the industry rose R912,4-million in the March 1998 quarter to R1,246-billion in the second quarter, while production costs per ton fell from R137,21 to R127,28. Over the same period the gold price in rand terms rose from R1 681 an ounce to R1 1732 as the rand fell some 30% against the dollar.

This means that producers gained R200 more an ounce on the previous three months, and received an average of $299,63 an ounce.

Source: Weekly Mail

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:53
Gold Dancer (PMF) ID#430221:: Agree with what you say. The middle class on down get hit the
hardest. Your observations are the best reason to get the control of
money out of the hands of the Central Bankers, and that includes
Greeenspam!!

But, like I have said before, Alan et.al. are leaving before
the s*** hits the fan. Or so they think. Will they make it. They are
trying to keep the lid on. They are hurting millions of people.
They are traitors to human dignity. But wait until you see the
celebration party for Alan. Wall Street LOVES him.

The tumult and the shouting dies. The captains and the kings
depart. Still stands thine ancient sacrifice, a humble and contrite
heart.

History repeats. We all lose.

I'm getting depressed.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:52
trader_vic__A () ID#369352:: The Dow may be down, but the Nasdac is still +6...the little guy has not yet given up on the rally...time will tell.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:44
ORCA__A (PMF (@Gold Dancer)) ID#231337:: I want to augment and compliment what PMF is seeing in the High Tech Industry in Canada.

I am a Canadian working in the High Tech Industry ( West Coast version ) , and we are seeing an incredible brain drain to the US, a movement which the lower Cdn dollar is increasingly encouraging. On top of the Financials, which are all true, the US has increased it's preferred green card cap and green card lottery system to allow US firms to raid other countries of their brightest and best. Think of the benefit! 75,000/year new and highly trained professionals into their market, all contributing day 1, paying taxes, no crime, buy expensive houses, and virtually no net burden to society, while the country instantly collects huge monitory and social benefits. It's killing Canada, and our Government has been systematically marching down this slippery path in order not to offend our �largest trading partner�. SOME PARTNERSHIP !!!

But not all the blame to the Americans for our poor financial situation re the dollar. Canada, has systematically sold its gold, Mulroney did much of it, and to back up his conviction that gold was = to tin, and along with George Bush, joined forces with Barrick to �build the gold industry�. What a travesty! The present Government has not really dealt with either the deficit or debt problem. Their approach has been to shift the tax burden to the provinces, and then claim they have won the battle against the defect issue.

Much is wrong in this Country, and it will take the middle class to rise up and address it!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:43
John Disney__A (Ben said ..) ID#24135:: to all ..
every little cheerleader should
have a pair of rotweilers ....

They need all the backup they
can get...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:38
Avalon (Drudge says David Kendall works for National Enquirer;) ID#254269:: JTF; did you see this in Drudge story ?

David Kendall, the Clintons' personal lawyer, also works for the ENQUIRER.

NATIONAL ENQUIRER Editor Steve Cos has stated that Kendall was not involved in earlier Clinton
scandal stories. There is zero crossover, he has said.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:34
FOX-MAN__A (DOW now down 20! This was quite a fake out rally this morning!) ID#288186:: !!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:28
blooper (This rally is history) ID#207145:: What a yoke.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:26
Cage Rattler (EXPERTS SAY INDONESIA ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE) ID#33184:: Local economists in Indonesia warned that the country faces social and economic collapse as a result of the growing financial crisis. In a joint statement Thursday, 15 economists said, If there is no action, the situation will move towards a total destruction of the Indonesian economy, bringing along the collapse of the social and political life of the people and even the existence of Indonesia.

These warnings were echoed this week as we received reports from missionaries living in Indonesia who confirm that inflation is likely to hit 100% and the society is breaking apart. However, due to the hardships facing the nation and persecution of religious miniorities in the most populous Muslim nation on earth, the Church in Indonesia is growing.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:24
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:: Gold is not yet 'broke'. It HAS made a two-thirds correction of this past 6 dollar rally. That in and by itself can typically be expected. The biggest current problems are silver sinking and the continuing saga of the weak yen etc.

From my 'deflation' scenarios posted last night after midnight, don't anybody get the impression that I am anti-gold 'cause I ain't! I also have my 'insurance' buried about. The real item we HAVE to watch for though is HOW they handle the whole situation.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:24
Spud Master (@JTF -- why Congress might not have the stomach for impeachment...) ID#28586:: With 1000+ FBI files in Bills filthy hands, can anyone doubt that many members of Congress have been reminded quietly about the contents of those files and how such info might inexplicably be made public.

It would be blackmail on a mindboggling scale.

Spud

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:24
Gold Dancer (Could it be) ID#430221:: that Greenspan is not responsible for the high dollar ie. falling
foreign currencies?

Lets say I am a foreign country and I have borrowed dollars and
need to pay back, with interest, the dollars borrowed. How do I get
these dollars? I must sell something to US ( export ) to get the
US dollar. But because of the interest payment due I need to get
more and more dollars and so I am forced to keep selling my goods
to the US in order to get those dollars. Since the US made debtors
of ALL Nations I am in competition with these other Nations to get
a limited suppply of dollars. Hence competitive currency adjustments!

This has given the US a free ride so far. Alan has played a game
which he plans to fold early next year. I believe he will leave
when his term is up early ( April? ) next year. He doesn't want to
be around when the price has to be paid.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:23
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: I won't even trade junk like this.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:21
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: the Nasdac will be really rich by the end of next week. Don't think it's got the umth to go that long.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:19
Avalon (tolly man; As I heard it , he told a joke about Chelsea, which, if I'm correct,) ID#254269:: went as follows;
Question; Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly ?

Answer; Because she has Janet Reno for a father .

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:16
Avalon (JTF; If Monica was dangerous, why was she let into W.H.) ID#254269:: 37 times after she no longer worked there ?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:10
JTF (The Lewinsky trashing begins - from Matt Drudge) ID#57232:: All: How odd -- all of a sudden M Lewinski is 'dangerous'. Wasn't for nearly 6 months, but she now has an abrupt character switch in the eyes of the Whitehouse spinmeisters. Who do they think they are fooling? All of WJC's women get treated the same way -- they all seem to have the same personality defects -- if it is clear that they will say something bad about WJC. Why does he consistently choose such undesirables to be associated with? This time Kenneth Starr has 75 photos of WJC and Monica when Monica was 'safe' according to WJC -- was she so dangerous before she was asked to testify?
http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm
I think we know what he will say on Aug 17. WJC is challenging Congress to impeach him -- he is betting that Congress will not have the stomach for it. But no one would have guessed that Janet Reno would be in comtempt of Congress.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:06
gunrunner (ANOTHER Congressional Brainstorm - This is for you Tol-1) ID#354133:: WASHINGTON, DC--On Monday, Congress approved the Americans With No
Abilities Act, sweeping new legislation that provides benefits and
protection for more than 135 million talentless Americans.

The act, signed into law by President Clinton shortly after its passage,
is being hailed as a major victory for the millions upon millions of U.S.
citizens who lack any real skills or uses. Roughly 50 percent of
Americans--through no fault of their own--do not possess the talent
necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,
said Clinton, a longtime ANA supporter. Their lives are futile
hamster-wheel existences of unrewarding, dead-end busywork: xeroxing
documents written by others, fulfilling mail-in rebates for Black & Decker toaster ovens, and processing bureaucratic forms that nobody will ever see. Sadly, for these millions of nonabled Americans, the American dream of working hard and moving up through the ranks is simply not a reality.

Under the Americans With No Abilities Act, more than 25 million important-sounding middle man positions will be created in the white-collar sector for nonabled persons, providing them with an illusory sense of purpose and ability. Mandatory, non-performance-based raises and promotions will also be offered to create a sense of upward mobility for even the most unremarkable, utterly replaceable employees. The legislation also provides corporations with incentives to hire nonabled workers, including tax breaks for those who hire one non-germane worker for every two talented hirees.

Finally, the Americans With No Abilities Act also contains tough new
measures to prevent discrimination against the nonabled by banning
prospective employers from asking such job-interview questions as, What
can you bring to this organization? and Do you have any special skills
that would make you an asset to this company?

As a nonabled person, I frequently find myself unable to keep up with
co-workers who have something going for them, said Mary Lou Gertz, who
lost her position as an unessential filing clerk at a Minneapolis tile
wholesaler last month because of her lack of notable skills. This new
law should really help people like me.

With the passage of the Americans With No Abilities Act, Gertz and millions of other untalented, inessential citizens can finally see a light at the end of the tunnel. Said Clinton: It is our duty, both as lawmakers and as human beings, to provide each and every American citizen, regardless of his or her lack of value to society, some sort of space to take up in this great nation.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:06
FOX-MAN__A (An interesting reversal on the DOW and the S&P....The dow was up over) ID#288186:: 120 pts. Now it's only up about 12. The S&P500 is back to nearly
flat as well. Gold started to move up a little, but has retreated
again. Silver still in the dumps. As Gollum says, next week could
be an over-all up week for metals...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:06
tolerant1 (does anyone know what Sen. John McCain said about Chlesea Clintler that he) ID#373284:: apologized...I can't find anything, anywhere on it...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 14:02
PMF (@Gold Dancer) ID#224363:: I'm just calling it the way I feel it ( and see it !!! ) .

I'm located in Kanata, Ontario, Canada ( just outside of Ottawa ) . Own a business here in the middle of High Tech country with companies like Nortel, Mitel, Newbridge, etc. employing thousands of high demand s/w and h/w folks.

At today's $CDN to $US rate of $1.53, a typical engineer here in Ottawa earning about $75K CDN equals $49K US. In Silicon Valley you would be hard pressed to hire a junior s/w developer for $49K.

If this keeps up much longer, one of two things will happen:

1 ) Canadian talent will hurry south in even bigger numbers then they are right now. ( Consider, the marginal tax rate on $75K is 54% here ) . Go south, increase your salary by 50% and pay lower taxes. Lets see what that does do the Canadian High Tech industry.

or

2 ) US High Tech hiring will more out of the States ( just like low cost manufacturing did in the 70's and 80's ) . Not bad, hire programmers in Canada and cut your development costs by 50%.

Quite frankly...I'm getting very tired of walking up every morning to find that my feeble savings are worth less and less every day. So are a lot of other Canadians. The big players in the forex markets may be doing quite well in all of this but the Middle Class in Canada, Japan, etc. are not happy campers.

How can there be anything but a backlash ( economic and otherwise ) !!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:59
newtron (Donald,) ID#388209:: The YEN BEARS must be tricked into their dens before the door is shut.
Hey Booboo just one more picinic type basket, Mr Ranger sir before I sleep for the winter !
When the Japanese suddenly announce real bank reform, the short covering will be like a Grizzly Bear trying to negotiate a run straight down a mountain after a rabbit. Once he starts to tumble, he won't stop rolling til his mass reaches level ground or falls off the precipiece !

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:58
Gollum (@blooper) ID#35571:: See the chart? Up on Monday and Tuesday, peak on Wednesday and Thursday, down of Friday. More or less.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:57
truenorth__A (Gold Dancer) ID#189268:: The dollar move up about .4 of a cent on the intervention and has remained up about a third of a cent to .6572 US. More US dollars will start to be sold and more aggressively. If that does not happen you can forget about world growth. Do you think that countries are going to continue to build up thier US dollar reserves at the expense of their own economies? We are in a dangerous period right now and this strong dollar policy will have to be reversed. Waht happens when ( not if ) China devalues the renminbi and decouples the Hong Kong dollar from the US$?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:57
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Aw scheiss! Islamic Jihad drop a bomb on our beloved BOW WOW DOW or what?) ID#431263:: Must be gettin' close to that LOOOOOOONG WEEEEEAAKYYEND! PUMP AND DUMP!! DUMP AND PUMP!!! Heh...heh...heh! DOWN, BOY, DOWN!! THAT'S ENOUGH OF THIS BIG CAP BULL SCHEISS!! Ben, go fetch those meatless old DOW BONES over there and DUMP 'em over here next to Gollum and his great Gollum silver rally and over there by Dizzy and his great rand race! Good boy, Ben! You're not such a dumb dog after all! Heh...heh...heh! Now go fetch me some more GOLDEN NUGGETS before Islamic Jihad starts bombing the hell out of some place important, like Capetown or DC! You're learning old boy! You're learning! Might be time to introduce you to my rotties! Mean SOB's! Tear your head off if ya' bark at 'em the wrong way! Don't give a damn if you're blind or not! Heh..heh! Sick 'em, Ben, sick 'em! Heh..heh! Here rotties, come over here and play with Ben! But don't let any RSA animal rights activists see ya'! Heh..heh! They might take your gold collars away for cruelty to blind dogs or sue you for litterin' the landsCAPE! Heh...heh..heh! Gott im Himmel I love a good clean dog fight! Heh...heh..heh! DOWN 100 + points off the highs! Time to do some SERIOUS DUMPIN'!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:56
tolerant1 (FlashGordon, A, Namaste' and a gulp to ya, had a hurricane follow north once...) ID#373284:: I wanted to reference a comment you made earlier in your post:

So who did it?
Iraqis? Unlikely, they have plenty to benefit from not distracting the world from B.C's zipper.
Iranians? Blame the whole lot on Iraq? Possible.
Probably Clinton himself. Anything to get out of domestic trouble.

The last item is certainly sad commentary on the USA and I can assure you that you are not alone in that most cynical thought...instead of being railed you are joined in thought by a great many individuals. I would love to hear the banter in the newsrooms that we will never be privy to to...

One more gulp to ya, glad you were unharmed by the act of coward ( s ) and another gulp to those who were injured and a thought to their families...take care...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:56
sam__A (@ trader_vic - what a soothing thought) ID#286284:: You're right; next rate move is _down_, next duck in the pond is the $US. Right right right. So how come my brain isn't feeling better?

s.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:54
vronsky (M-Day ALERT #1) ID#427357:: Y2K BUG, MILLENNIUM MENACE, Computer Catastrophe� call it what you will - and in whatever language� the peril is universal and portends potentially grave consequences for everyone in the world� with the possible exception of those dedicated to GOD: the AMISH.

Ironically and biblically poetic, those who have never embraced the conveniences and pleasures of modern life and technology may be the only CHOSEN-ONES saved from the possible ravages of the Year-2000 danger. Their total self-dependence provides them a natural immunity. Their enclaves are purposely removed from the modern world to keep from being contaminated. Their way of life fosters total self-reliance for their day to day needs -- which brings me to a very disturbing discovery.

The G-O-L-D__E-A-G-L-E staff continued its survey of Mid-western distributors of food staples. The following is typical of our findings. This particular distributor ships to anywhere in the Continental US, Alaska and Hawaii. One of his Long-term Storable Food items is called the BREAKFAST COMBO. He advertises it as being ON SPECIAL for ONLY $199.00.

Here's what you get for the $199 SPECIAL.

Case #1
( 1 ) Can Bacon TVP
( 1 ) Can Egg Mix
( 1 ) Can Cheese Powder
( 1 ) Can Buttermilk Pancake Mix
( 1 ) Can Butter Powder
( 1 ) Can Non-Fat Milk Powder
Case #2
( 1 ) Can Granola
( 1 ) Can Hashbrowns
( 1 ) Can Brown Sugar
( 1 ) Can Golden Raisins
( 1 ) Can Quick Oats
( 1 ) Can 9-Grain Cracked Cereal

( AND that is ALL you get for 199 bucks! )

NOW COMES THE Y2K ALERT: THE BREAKFAST COMBO DELIVERY TIME IS
� AND I QUOTE:

All orders for specials must be placed and paid for by August 31, 1998. ALLOW 15 WEEKS FOR DELIVERY.

The Distributor cautions to Allow nearly FOUR MONTHS FOR DELIVERY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Where in God's name is this smallish BREAKFAST PACKAGE coming from�
from Outer-Mongolia� packed out by mules Or is there indeed an accelerating demand for staples� causing unprecedented scarcity?!

If it takes nearly 4 MONTHS NOW for a Breakfast Package, one may only fear what delivery times will be in the next six months for basic staples� indeed what it will be next year as we close in on the M-Day.

If you are still calm and collective in the face of this looming problem, while everyone around you is frantically running around in circles nad wringing their hands, perhaps you may not fully understand the situation. That being the case, you might do well to peruse our Y2K Index of reports at the following URL. BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY!

It will be necessary to delete the extra letters en in the word golden before posting the URL to the Internet.

http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/y2kndx.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:53
Gollum (@blooper ) ID#35571:: And a week it shall be. Remember this is this week, and the rally is next week. Today simply gives us a pointer into next week.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:51
trader_vic__A (To All: Asian Crisis) ID#369352:: As I watch the Japanese Yen fall continuously lower, I await the announcement that China will Devalue...they have no choice at this time. When this happens, All of Asia will be on a downward spiral and the only market will be the US for their goods, maybe Europe...as this progresses the US companies will suffer heavy profit losses...as they no longer will be competitive. The trade deficit will soar to over $20+ Billion/mo. At this point the stock market is sh*t and on its' way down...history in the making...EB looses his @ss on Disney...Bonds start to tank, but AG lowers rates to keep the bonds low..with no success. The dollar now starts to fall extremely fast as all the floating dollars are repatriated...now the gold shorts are sh*tting in their shorts...They can run, but they can't hide...now not even AG can contain the price of Gold...and there will be no help from Europe on this on...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:48
Spud Master (@Flash Gordon) ID#28586:: re. the two bombings this morning...

I though the same thing: Who had the most to gain from them?

BC

This creature and his minions would do *anything* to save their odius, noisome hides. No doubt we will shortly see the following on TV:

#1 Bill giving the tearful I feel your pain speach, with vows of retaliation against those responsible -- basically Hitler's Riechstag fire speach.

#2 News reports of US forces massing against Libya, Iraq or Iran -- ie. the Ususal Suspects.

#3 Bill annoucing on TV that we have identified and are righteously punishing them guilty, hence announcement of our armed forces attacking. This is the Argentinian Hunta's Falkland Islands invasion speach.

#4 Public attention diverted.

#5 Ken Starr quietly fired while everyone is watching the walnut shells.

Spud

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:48
Gold Dancer (Rody and True North) ID#430221:: So that is why Canada sold it's gold!! To Buy dollars so they
could sell them into the market driving the $ lower? GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:43
ravenfire (gold down, silver down? oh well...) ID#333126:: so who shorted the BIG truckload that I suggested?

now now... a few more dollars in the POG and a little bit more in the POS and I'll go out to my local coin dealer and go collect myself some more shiny 1 oz Au and one or 2 1kg Kookaburras :- )

and maybe even go get that long term gold call I've been thinking about for some time now...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:40
blooper (Gollum) ID#207145:: What is happening to the rally. I thought this was a one week deal here?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:40
newtron (Gollum) ID#388209:: Silver apparrently has one more swoon retest left in it, but there is virtually no downside risk ( IMHIPO ) to Gold. Don't get left without your E-Ticket for the jerk up on thUS Haunted House Ride.
Going Up ! ? Next stop $320 !

IMHIPO, I Remain As Before,

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:39
FOX-MAN__A (tolerant1; Sounds good. That's what I want to hear...Positive thinking whilst) ID#288186:: tending to the ole gut. A gulp back at ya! Soon..very soon!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:37
TYoung (Dow Transports...fear is starting to show...) ID#317193:: We watch this ne...never mind.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:36
FOX-MAN__A (trader_vic; Yep...alot of folks to be hurt on this stock market. Don't worry...) ID#288186:: I've been out for quite some time now. I don't know how far it will
retrace upwards, but I plan to short it if at all possible.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:36
tolerant1 (FOX-MAN, Namaste' and a gulp to ya...Hmmmmmmmmmm...what to do...I say no) ID#373284:: guts no gain...pick your favorite gold and silver stocks...one of each and then buy some...when this baby explodes, and it will shortly...it will snap all the day traders and experts necks...FWIW I have already put my money where my gut told me to put mine and then some...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:30
Donald (Deflation in oil prices will carry into next year.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/oil_iea_1s_2.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:28
FOX-MAN__A (OLD GOLD; Hmmm..Kaplan was on vacation the 1st part of this week) ID#288186:: wasn't he? I didn't think there would be an update at his site until
next Monday. Thanks for pointing out his update! EXTREMELY BULLISH
huh? Hmmmm. What to Do..What to Do...or is it...What to doodoo?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:27
trader_vic__A (The Stock Market) ID#369352:: As I stated earlier in Kitco, This leg up will be the Bull Trap that will catch the dippies by surprise...especially Abbey Cohen...a true dippy...I give this Bull trap run-up between 8850 - 9000...then it's history ( 50% - 60% retracement ) ...so for you who are looking for the chance to get out of those overvalued stocks, now is your last chance at these levels.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:25
Donald (The yen bears are not impressed.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/fx_in_euro_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:23
Gold Dancer (PMF: Currency Wars) ID#430221:: Your post of 7:49. That't the way I see it. GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:17
OLD GOLD (Kaplan) ID#242325:: Steve Kaplan has raised his gold outlook from strongly bullish to extremely bullish -- as high as it gets. Still looks lower short-terrm to me, but there is little doubt a powerful rally is not far off as Hepcat is telling us.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:15
Flash Gordon__A (bombs) ID#327313:: Yes, simply splendid. I was almost killed in the 1996 Manchester bombing when the IRA decided to plant the largest mainland bomb ever in the Arndale Centre, thereby successfully taking out the largest covered shopping arcade in Europe. And today some madmen decided to bomb a building only 5 minutes away from where I am staying here in Nairobi.
So who did it?
Iraqis? Unlikely, they have plenty to benefit from not distracting the world from B.C's zipper.
Iranians? Blame the whole lot on Iraq? Possible.
Probably Clinton himself. Anything to get out of domestic trouble.

It was a disgusting event with burned, charred and mangled bodies everywhere. Still, for all kenya's poverty and lack of preparation for such insane events, I have never seen a nation pull together in such haste and with such a sense of togetherness. Even matatu drivers ( the money hungry drivers of overloaded vehicles used as public transport ) threw out their customers and loaded their vans with the blood stained bodies of the injured, and helped transport them to the hospitals.

Now all kenya needs is good governance. If only some decent politicians would emerge who could bring out the collective good in kenyans ( as witnessed today ) , the whole issue of tribalism, which has divided the country and much of africa for so long, would be a thing of the past.

I have a question: why not Kampala? I can understand that Nairobi ( Kenya ) was targeted since it is one of the more forward looking capitals, but Dar-es-Salaam ( Tanzania ) is as backward as they come. Furthermore, Clinton made a visit to Kampala ( Uganda ) so I would have thought that a bomb there would have been a place for greater impact. Perhaps the security in Kampala was too tight?

Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:09
sam__A (@ JTF re your 12:44 - AG is terrified of a rising gold price.) ID#286253:: You are dead on. The sign of the times is currency decimation - the Baht, the Yen, the Aussie dollar and now the $C. Flight to safety is the order of the day. Fifty bucks on the gold price would send a clear signal that the $US is next. Can't/won't let that happen. Terrified indeed.

At the same time, I also think AG doesn't want the price too low. He does not want to shut down the entire industry so as to attrack scarcity-driven specs into the market. He wants a sleepy little gold market that nobody mays much attention too. Rigging might be the word.
My only thoughts are that he's rigged it too low -- on a full-cost basis, there is blood everywhere at 290. I have a friend at a metalurgical research center - they do milling tests ( grade, recovery, etc. ) on bulk samples as part of feasibility studies. It is a big and reputable shop and a good an indicator as any as to where production is headed over the next little while. THEY HAVE NO WORK! ( sorry for the shouting. )

Don't believe cash costs - the gold mining industry is dying out there. AG has rigged the price, but he has rigged it too low. And I think this will be his downfall.

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:08
newtron (Ben & his magic couch.) ID#388209:: It seems that Ben was standing at the door of Dizzy's fridg & woofing his magical incantation to the silver doors. But unbeknownst to Ben, his valle was dozing in the sealed Mood Room Chamber listening to the final aria of Broomhilda, dining on chicken bellies, Golden Cheese Wiz & drinking from a fine pipe of Chianti layed up by Hannible Lector & shared only on appointed days of high carnival feasts with his fellow canibals.
Much perplexed, as Ben is too senile to either remember that this failure of the corniacopia has progressed to some monotinous degree of frequency with the aging forgetfulness of his trusted valle & much too seasoned to remain long perturbed, Ben repaired to his magical couch for the usual nap. After a short dream of former amorous engagements & assorted conquests, Ben down shifted into Super Hyper Rim & he was off on a spin around to see what he could see in his early afternoon wonder lust.
Suddenly he arrived at what Ben thought must surly be the heavenly gates. Ben just glided by the avuncular figure garding the gate as if he were on a sled who handed Ben his VIP pass, & instantly he was in a blink of his crusty eyes ushered into the presence of the First Canine Buddy. Buddy hoped up on the Lincoln Bed & said to Ben I have a test to see who is the Greatest Dog in all the land ! My master has sent me to the finest obediance schools & I have taken an oath of silence so as to be immune from Grand Inquisitors. I have even mastered the art of speaking & spelling the Human's English language. If you can arrange these dog bone treats that I have placed before you in the true sign of the Twilight Bark, I will tell you all the secrets of the Arkansaw Mafia !

Ben paused ever so slowly & cocked his head in a knowing stare. Then he snapped up the bonnes like the fox did to the Ginger Bread Man, took carnal knowledge of Buddy in three different positions & was back on the couch before his master realized that Ben had put another 12000 miles on the magic couch. The valle emerged from his day dreaming sabattical in the Mood Room & wondered allowed to his Kimo Sabe why his appetite was off again !
And Ben Lives happy you betcha !

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:07
goldy88 (Noranda s stake in BMG) ID#42039:: To BMACD:thank you for your answer of aug 5th, 20h.
I hope the transaction will happen over the counter because 65millions represents 28% of the total shares.
Don t you think this hides a take over with BMG? ( no poisonpills,neither special protections with the floating... )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:06
goldfevr (Commitment of Traders: Commercials' buying - i.e. - 'net-long' etc.//Eldorado @ 12:11) ID#434108:: Deep pockets
and/or deep-patience,
for sure.

Commitment of Traders ( COT ) , w/ a focus on Commmercials'
'chart-patterns'
- buy & sell patterns -
- net long &/or net short .... patterns -

the trick is --
as I've invested millions of US dollars,
( -- a costly loss, in research till refined....-- )
of mine,
& of my 'past' clients' money ( -mostly my 'very-past' clients' ) ...
to attest to, test, & validate - if not prove...

is that -
there is a verifiable pattern, when Commercials'
net long values,
achieve, over time --
[periodic cyclical patterns -
.... - over weeks & preferably over months - ]
successively lower tops/highs/net-long values....
simultaneously with lower prices, of the given commodity.

I've described & explained this pattern/phenomenon,
many times before,
here at kitco:

If prices are cyclicallly going lower,
while net-long/buying values, of Commercials,
are simultaneously
going lower

this indicates/reveals/suggests...
that the Commercials - the big boys

have loaded - up
on all of the 'stuff' - that they could want for...
...
it signals that the Commercials
have completed establishing their long positions,
their commitments, their hedges.

What almost always follows such a
classic/ideal COT/Commercials - bullish pattern of buying....
is a new bull market of:
RISING PRICES.

This usually happens as
the
large-speculators - component of COT,
which are the drivers...
of almost all bull markets -
propel/move - into
net-long buying values/patterns....
simultaneously driving prices higher.
....
And meanwhile, as the 'new' bull market move takes place,
the Commercials,
simultaneously begin to cyclically
retreat
into increasingly net-short values...

Thus, almost any 'trade-able'
bull market move - whether long-term or short-term -
in almost any given commodity,
can be identified, in advance,
if COT/Commercials data/values/patterns are available. ...
and if one
is patient enuf, and with sufficiently 'deep-pockets'.

A footnote or two:
The Recent Barron's article/interview, a few weeks back,
with the Commodity brokers/analysts --
I believe they are out of Chicago...
the article was titled - The Next Wave

It/they were right....as far as 'it' goes.

With Bonds at extreme values for net-short Commercials...
this is potentially bearish for Bonds -
pointing toward higher interest rates...
ULTIMATELY - sonner or later.....

But to use the COT as a an effective timing indicator, it must be refined,
used only - in my experience--
when the classic/ideal pattern of periodic/cyclically lower net-longs - for bull market reversals..

or lessening net-shorts/Commercials....
for tiring/ending bull - markets

...only when this kind of relational-pattern develops,
either bullishly,
or bearishly,
can COT/Commmercials
be used reliably, for timing.

Thus, it is best, to wait for...
to look for...
a CLASSIC/IDEAL COT PATTERN
OF EITHER:

SUCCESSIVE - LOWER HIGHS --
WHEN NET-LONGS ARE FOUND IN COMMERCIALS,
AS A POWERFUL SIGNAL OF A MARKET BOTTOM -- AND -
A BUYING OPPORTUNITY;

OR OF -
REDUCING, LESSENING NET-SHORT VALUES, FOR COMMERCIALS,
( IDEALLY AS PRICES WORK THEIR HIGHER ) -
( -which has not happened yet for Bonds )
to reliably confirm/identify - a top, &/or selling opportunity.
( Here is a caution to the Barron's article interviewed party's interpretation of COT ) .

There are numerous, recent examples of the bottoming & buying opportunity, ( -for trading purposes/short-term, & at times - longer term ) ...
in various commodity markets,
using the concept of ideal/classic --
declining COT/Commercials net-longs,
as a primary timing indicator
for identifying such bullish,
turn-around/reversal opportunities.

Here are listed, a few examples, from the recent past:

#1.
Cotton's May/June advance,
was preceeded by, and signalled by:
it's
COT/Commercials' pattern of declining net-long values,
simultaneously with it's declining prices,
from Dec. '97, into Apr, 98....
this was a 'classic/ideal/ buying opportunity...
identified by this technical indicator.

Similar recent examples, include:

#2.
Soymeals recent rally,
predicted by -
COT/Commercials declining net-longs,
simultaneously,
with declining prices,
from March, into June, '98.

And:
#3.
US TReasury ( 10-yr. ) Notes..
and their 'compressed' version of this pattern,
this past May, '98,
signalling the June/July rally, with lower interest rates,
which immediately followed.

Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
goldfever@k-online.com
essene@k-online.com

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:03
Gold Dancer (Golden Cheesehead) ID#430221:: Re; your 1:55 post. Your the winner as far as I can see as to
the argument about when you need to own your gold. During a delflation
in the US interest rates will skyrocket because everyone will be looking
to buy dollars to stay ahead of the debt wolf. But there will not be
enough dollars out there. So the price ( interest ) will rise. It
will rise until things go bust. Gold will be unavaiable to buy during
this time and so its price will be expensive. Why pay off US dollar debt
with gold? Just go bankrupt.

The gold you have will give you a second chance in life. Your
mortgaged home will be reposessed, your car will be sold and your
furniture will go back to Sears. Your bank account is unavailable
or has attachments.

And your looking back wondering why you were such as ass to try
and time your gold purchase to save $50 an ounce.

Just personal opinion.

Thanks, GD

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 13:01
Jack (Canada) ID#252127:: Canada having sold most of its gold and having been brow beaten by its neighbor to the south, to indulge in competetive devaluations has indeed effected her national currency.
This makes her weaker down the road. Taking the easy way out she weakens her whole internal structure.
When she awakens and decides to compete with her natural strenghts using both the efficiency of her people, industry and her natural resources, she will have a strong currency.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:58
TYoung (Disney...can I borrow Ben for a few hours...need some help picking mining shares:)) ID#317193:: Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:58
PMF (What a fun day we have had today !!!!) ID#224363:: Gold down ( almost $2 )
Silver down ( way way down !!! )
CDN Dollar Down ( even after CDN Government spent $500M this AM buying it )
Gold Stocks Down
CIBC ( Big CDN Bank ) down after earnings warning
Dow Up ( what else on a Friday )

I think we are going to have a fun time next week

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:57
rube (to JTF) ID#333127:: I don't think AG has any gov. right or ability to buy gold?
I'm also under the impression the President can put us on a gold standard by executive order, overnight if he wants, no Congress involved?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:55
John Disney__A (you're never gonna believe this ..) ID#24135:: to all ..
but Bens in the other room with a braille edition
of ADVANCED FETCH..

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:54
Selby (Gollum) ID#286230:: Thats a relief. There were no Canadian bank losses just lower profits with share price declines.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:54
truenorth__A (Gollum Banks) ID#189268:: Earning $.50 instead of the expected 0.85 this quarter does not equal a loss. They still made money.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:53
rube (to JTF) ID#333127:: I don't think AG has any gov. right or ability to buy gold?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:49
Gollum (Canadian banks) ID#35571:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/cibc_cm_to_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:49
crazytimes (The good news) ID#342376:: is that despite the pronouncement of gold as dead, when the DOW tanked 300 points and the NASDAQ got decimated, POG shot up and gold stocks went up. Apparently, gold is not dead. The comment today of the Titanic's last party seemed very appropriate to me. We also didn't hear any convenient announcements from the Swiss or any other European CB during or before the fall. I think the CB's know that les jeux sont faits ( the game is up )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:45
TYoung (Negative on this site...dare I say I'm considering buying some RSA mining shares?) ID#317193:: Yep, I am. Today or Monday. You guys don't instill a lot of confidence, however. Harmony down around $4.

Tom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:44
Selby (tolerant1) ID#286230:: Great. My memory of high school history seems to retain just the main threads.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:44
JTF (Thoughts about gold and the dollar) ID#57232:: All: Perhaps AG is afraid to bring down the US dollar by buying gold, because he fears a gold rally that might get out of control. If COMEX gold stores are as scarce as we think they are, the shift from excess gold to a gold shortage could be a quick one. Could the lease rates be a clue to this? A sudden rise in gold leasing rates might indicate the supply is drying up precipitously.
I do think one of us was right that a gold rally might come quickly when it comes. Sure is hard to remember that when your gold investments are being decimated.
I think the answer is to keep some of your assets in gold stocks ( no margin ) -- but only assets you can afford to lose more than 10-20% ( 50%? ) . When the shift from gold bear to bull occurs it may be sudden -- how else can the US dollar be brought down or come down? I wish I knew how close the analogy with the 1929 scenario applies. Was the US dollar too strong going into September 1929 also? Certainly we have enough suspect currency devaluations around the world to suspect the 1929 scenario.
So -- we should be watching gold lease rates very closely, the value of the US dollar, and commodity index prices.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:43
tolerant1 (Selby, Namaste' thank you. I have my resident British slave commencing with the) ID#373284:: research of said court and will get back to you...gulp to ya...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:42
Selby (goldnbones) ID#286230:: It is possible I got lost in the zeros but I think the Can Gov got about $480 per oz in C$--not too bad from their point of view. Funny how some think that selling 55$ of gold has an effect on a currency. Of course there were lots of funny thoughts yesterday.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:42
John Disney__A (Ben's got the scent ..) ID#24135:: to all
He's looking for that dachshund
that said the dog bones average
was coming down .. He'll know him
by smell .. whiff of limberger ..
recognize it anywhere .... hiding
in the bushes somewhere probably.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:41
Gollum (@goldnbones ) ID#35571:: Yes. If you saw my little missives about free money earlier this morning you will see that I too suspect that a certain amount of gold's troubles comes from the way central banks value their gold reserves.

I guess they think they are being conservative, but look at what comes from it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:37
John Disney__A (Very Interesting !!) ID#24135:: To all ..
Not a word from anyone ... Gold in yen is trading
over 41,800 !!! A close here could change Disney's
LAW ..
The Gold silver ratio is 54 !! .. Gold is moving
UP against silver .. the people that said silver was
PROPPING IT UP were mistaken .. it was the other
way around ..
NOW WILL IT LAST or will gold collapse at
the end of trading

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:36
Selby (Gollum) ID#286230:: Which Can bank has taken a loss?

Gollum ( @JTF ) ID#35571:
Canadian dollar has a problem due to banking losses.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:35
truenorth__A (Gollum) ID#189268:: What Canadian banking losses are you referring to?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:35
SWP1 (@JTF) ID#233199:: Maybe it's time ( for anybdy with US dollars ) to buy a nice cottage in Muskoka..

...too bad my mining shares are worth less..

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:35
goldnbones (Canada sold 168,000 oz gold in July) ID#377196:: Canada has stated that it sold 168,000 oz gold in July. Some have said that this shows Central Banks will still sell despite what the World Gold Council says. But part of the reason must be the way in which the gold is valued. The article I read stated the gold was sold for a change in book of value of Canada's gold holdings of -$8 mil, but with an increase in foreign reserves of $55.4 mil. This means that the gold was valued on the books at approximately $48/oz, and sold for approximately $330/oz. Maybe if Canada changed the way it values its gold Canada would not be so eager to sell it.

LONDON, Aug 6 ( Reuters ) - Gold remained locked in a range on Thursday in late European trading, shrugging off news that Canada had sold 168,000 ounces, dealers said.

Gold was last quoted at $287.60/$288.10 an ounce, from the previous close in New York at $287.70/$288.20. Bullion remained in a range between $286.80 and $288.20.

Dealers said gold encountered difficulty breaking through $288.50.

``It is relatively quiet, there was a bit of selling pressure this morning but it failed to move the market,'' one European dealer said.

He said he did not see much potential for gold to move higher, adding that bullion shrugged off news that Canada had sold 168,000 ounces in July.

Canada's Finance Department said on Thursday the country had sold 168,000 ounces of gold in July, boosting its foreign reserves by US$55.4 million.

Its holdings stood at 2.9 million ounces as of July 31, the department said. It was the first sale of gold by Canada since October 1996.

The sale represented a reduction in the book value of Canada's gold holdings of US$8 million, and an increase in the country's foreign reserves of US$55.4 million.

Dealers said gold remained very muted and seemed to have ignored the weaker yen in later trading on Thursday. Weakness in the yen has directly hit dollar gold prices for weeks now, with bullion dealers using the yen as a pointer to Southeast Asian gold demand.

``The dollar/yen has done nothing today,'' one London dealer said.

Dealers said even though the bullion market was relatively thin at the moment, the news failed to make an impact.

``The price did not move at all. For a place like Canada which is a natural gold provider...It highlights the fact that no matter what the ( World ) Gold Council says, central banks will be quietly selling still,'' another dealer said.

Gold tends to be negatively correlated with other asset classes and fell to an 18 year low at $277.00 an ounce this year as the U.S. stockmarket and the dollar have risen steadily in the past eight years.

But gold prices are not far from the marginal cost of production for many mines and producer hedging and central bank activity has been light in recent weeks, allowing gold to consolidate around current levels.

Gold prices are not seen recovering much ground until the slow summer demand period passes for jewellery fabricators and until the September and October Hindu festivals revive demand in India.

Silver was last quoted higher at $5.44/$5.47 an ounce against the previous close at $5.40/$5.43, and dealers said the metal was struggling to go above $5.50.

``If gold does not stabilise at the area where it is now, silver will go down again,'' one dealer said.

Platinum and palladium moved higher in European trading. Platinum was last quoted at $381.40/$383.40 against the previous close at $375.50/$377.50.

Palladium was last quoted higher at $291.00/$301.00 against Wednesday's $287.00/$297.00 New York close.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:33
Selby (tolerant1) ID#286230:: The Star Chamber court in unmerry olde England was noted for its ability to force you to attend and to be questioned without a lawyer for as long as they felt like it and in complete secrecy. With no legal representation the Star Chamber was the last ( I think ) vestige of dunking accused into the village mill pond and pouring molten lead into the palm of the hand to prove guilt or innocence. The Grand jury system is not much better and way out of date --but maybe efficient eh?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:32
SWP1 (I guess we're finding out who's serious about holding on to what....) ID#233199:: I don't throw out my lottery tickets until after the draw and they are damn near worthless, so why should I dump my mining shares? I can't spend either one but those shares still give me a thrill.

Sort 'a like a perma lotto ticket - the money's gone but the hope lives on. Good thing I've got some canned goods stashed.

swp1

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:31
Gollum (@JTF) ID#35571:: Most of the conventional rules for investing are like the beginners books on how to play bridge. A good rough guide for the general case.

If every hand was an average hand, then things would be fine. But variances being what they are, we fairly often deviate from the mean. And occasionaly, though rarely, by large measure.

It is during the rare times, like these, that large fortunes are made ( and lost ) .

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:25
tolerant1 (Selby, Namaste' and a gulp to ya. Would you please be so kind...) ID#373284:: as to explaining your reference to archaic court. Thanks...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:22
JTF (Makes Sense) ID#57232:: Eldorado: Thanks -- I guess I am learning just how much far ahead the commercials look. Years, months? Must have really deep pockets. I guess we must always remember that such actions are hedges, rather than speculations.
Gollum: I warned my Canadian friends several times to diversify into non- Canadian currency. Didn't expect that things would keep getting worse. I think we all will not forget this time -- for the rest of our lives. Many of the conventional rules of investing seem not to apply during these chaotic times. My hat is off to anyone who can understand what is happening and avoid getting burned. There is alot to be said for battening down the hatches and let all of this blow over. And that assumes that we will know how long to wait before we take a peak.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:20
SWP1 (Gollum say cross currents will last through next week!) ID#233199:: Ugh!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:19
sam__A (@Eldorado re your 12:11 - Commercials are deep longs) ID#286253:: If the commercials are long, it doesn't mean the markets getting ready to go up, but rather that it is more difficult to push it down. Commercials are deep longs. They can take a five dollar hit and not press the ol' panic button. They don't need stops. As a result, you see far less dough sloshing across to the short side of the floor. There is a lot more risk in the silver market than the gold market for this very reason.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:16
Gollum (@JTF ) ID#35571:: The chop and cross currents will calm down after next week.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:13
Gollum (@JTF) ID#35571:: Canadian dollar has a problem due to banking losses.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:13
goldfevr (the final stampede, and the drowning horde) ID#434108:: DJIA to 10,000, here we come/go !

the final hook

that will ensare and trap
'the masses'

while precious few will be

in - 'the know'

........

prepare your life-boats,
gentle men & ladies

the 'Titanic' is throwing
one
last
party

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:11
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:: JTF -- Commercials can afford to be long for a VERY LONG time before the markets move in that direction. Anybody who uses those numbers for trading must have a lot of money to park in a loosing proposition for a long time. 'Eventually', it'll go in their direction.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:10
sam__A (@ rhody - Buffet is probably buying!) ID#286253:: And it now looks as though he did sell some at the top, so his average cost would be a little lower.

But he doesn't really care. He bought a little silver, it's tucked away, and now he wishes the media would stop paying some much attention to 2% of his portfolio.

cheers,

s.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:10
Selby () ID#286230:: The US A. G. threatened by Congress. The US Pres about to go before a an archaic Star Chamber court. The US on the road to pricing it self out of world markets. Any surprise that the guys with bombs and Saddam himself think this is a good time to cause trouble?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:08
gunrunner (MFs) ID#354133:: Tol-1 & Mtn Bear - Thanks for the info on mutual funds. Looking to transfer some IRA funds in near future...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:04
JTF (I thought the Yen was to head up, along with gold) ID#57232:: All: Didn't one of us post that commercial concerns had a very large long position on the Yen, in anticipation of a strengthening Yen, and a weakeing US dollar? What happened? Are we seeing the cracks forming in the world financial system? Perhaps there are so many weak economies out there that the US 'flight to safety' is continuing, despite the anticipated ( but as yet nonexistent ) rise in the Japanese Yen.
Could the commercials not have anticipated an imminent devaluation of the Yuan? And gold and silver are certainly acting as if another major currency is devaluing somewhere. The commercials can be wrong, at times, too -- most of us may be in incharted waters during these deflationary times. That is -- deflationary for the strongest currencies, and inflationarry for the weakest ones.
I get the impression that events are inevitably moving forward, and we are being swept along -- in mostly uncharted waters. This is a time to be in a safe harbour.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 12:01
rhody (Silver: Think Warren Buffett is regretting his silver position?) ID#411440:: We are right back down to where he bought in!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:52
Suspicious (I smell a Grizz !) ID#287312:: Skin this one pilgrim.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:52
JTF (Wow! What a day!) ID#57232:: gollum, All: Lots of cross-currents in the markets. Reminds me of the day I was canoeing in the Erie Canal and a big tugboat went by. Now, what you are supposed to do is head into the waves so that you don't roll over. What I did not anticipate was the reflections of the waves off the concrete walls of the canal -- there was no safe orientation! We didn't sink, but it sure was dicey. After a while the chop was so bad it actually got a bit better.
This market behavior is really too choppy for me -- regretting my small long position, even if the US markets are going up - for now. Probably 'flight to safety'. I don't like the looks of this at all -- we are being buffeted by Canadian problems, Mexican problems, and Chinese/Hong Kong/Japan problems.
It will not be good at all if we have more non-US devaluations, and the US dollar goes up even more. Since the dollar trading is 1.4 trillion US or so per day, it would seem that the only way to bring this mess down would be to buy gold, not sell it, since the gold market is so much thinner than the dollar market. But this does not seem to be what is happening. I wonder what is going through AG's mind right now. Retirement, perhaps before the chop in the canal gets too much? He has done well for many years -- but it cannot last.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:49
APH (Trading) ID#255226:: They don't all work! Stopped out of my silvers between 5.38 and 5.33. Currently short from 5.30 with very tight stops. Sell spu8 today at 1115 if it gets that high.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:48
sam__A (Hmmmm - worth a dip? ) ID#286253:: Looks like a lot of stops got taken out - will we see the bottom pickers out there this aft? Hmmmmm

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:42
Gollum (SIU8 5.295) ID#35571:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:42
chas (rhody financial crisis) ID#147201:: You nailed it. A G knew about this way back and I think that's why he enlisted the aid of the CB's in their gold leasing program. He knows that once gold breaks loose, the crack in the $ will be a flood and he's between a rock and a hard place

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:35
FOX-MAN__A (Ole Alan Greenspan and R. Rubin are in a real pickle aren't they? That's why) ID#288186:: this is the most exciting times to be trading! Yep, it's frustrating...
Yep, I have alot of losses. But I'm going to try my best to stay in this
game! Lets play this game together, shall we? Go Gold!! Go Silver!!
Foxman

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:34
DEJ (Current Account Surplus?) ID#270236:: The current account doesn't count capital flows. I think it's
the trade deficit plus investment income. The U.S. current account
deficit used to be smaller than the trade deficit because we had a
positive balance on investment income. Now the current account deficit
is larger because the investment account has turned against the U.S.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:32
Gollum (@rhody ) ID#35571:: AG can lower rates...but first, the market has to be trashed.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:29
Gollum (SIU8 5.290) ID#35571:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:29
rhody (financial crisis: as all world currencies fall against the USD,) ID#411440:: the US economy will simply shut down because of excessive
exchange rates. A strong currency is a good thing for
an economy, in moderation, but too much of a good thing
is lethal. Gollum thinks this will go on until mid-September.
Maybe, but it must end soon.

AG must know this. What can he do to shut off the influx of
foreign investment? Lower interest rates? But this inflates
the equities bubble, and does not generate visible inflation.
AG can do nothing.

Eventually Canada will be forced to raise interest rates. Exporting
flat out to the bloated US market has no affect on our currency.
Look at Japan. Why would any nation sell real goods to an American
consumer in exchange for paper that is 30% overvalued? INSANITY.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:24
Gollum (Now what?) ID#35571:: To me it looks like someone is playing games. Perhaps building up a large short position over the last many days, and now chopping the price down. If so we will begin to see some recovery, paritularly after the London market has closed in a little less than half an hour from now.

If not, well if not then somebody must have shown up at the COMEX doors with a trainload of silver. Maybe the same guy with all the shorts.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:21
chas (truenorth BOC et al) ID#147201:: Thanx for your post and PMF. I have to agree and also with the 8 points. There are also several hotspots in the Afghan area with one active. Add to this the 2 bombings in Africa and a wussy State Dept and it looks terrible. This reminds me of the break in 73-74 on the Dow. Not the heighth of the Dow, but the action. We have enough oil to forget the ME, but the spin has convinced Wall St that we need the ME. What a damn lie. Good luck, Charlie

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:18
Gollum (SIU8 5.280) ID#35571:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:18
FOX-MAN__A (jims; Thanks for your take....I plan to keep my one Dec silver(bought @ 5.15)) ID#288186:: and hold tight. I have a sell stop @ 5.05 I also have been trading
the S&P E-Mini ( 1/10th the actual S&P ) . I got a nice ride down from
1123 and got out at 1083. Now I'm thinking of shorting it again
real soon. I'll keep a close buy stop around 1110. Thanks, Fox-Man

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:17
jonesy (@ Gollum, Foxman, re. personal PM trading) ID#19870:: Liquidated everything. Broker said, Okay, Jonesy. Now take a deep breath. Still own ample physical ( some things we don't mess with ) . But my ventures into trading have resulted in wound-licking losses. Well, I replied, I've learned a lot about trading, and a lot about myself. And I've made some bad, typically novice mistakes, and gotten off much better than someone else might otherwise. Plus I've had some fun. All in all -- I've spent a lot more in my life for a lot less -- for what I got out of this, the money spent wasn't altogether out of line.

As ( Market Wizard ) Ed Seykota said, Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money. . . . I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it.

I don't understand it, although I admit it. I think I'm gonna have to step away for a piece and figure this thing out.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:16
ALBERICH__A (@rhody: Your Excellent Market Analysis Summary from 8:10) ID#212197:: Let me pick out one important aspect of your summary:

2. The US is working on a $300 billion trade deficit, but probaby
has a current account surplus becasue of the foreign investment
in US paper. Eventually the trade deficit will collapse the
US dollar and the current account will turn massively negative.

Basically, that says that the US market buys from the World market, ( in balance for around $200b this year alone ) more than the US market sells to the World Market. So far the trade deficit.
But the capital exchange of the US market with the World market acts the opposite way. The US exports T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds, and in addition, absorbes a lot of foreign currency into the stock market ( i.e., exports shares ) . The US exports paper values to the world in exchange for real goods and assets.

Why does this miracle work? You point to the facts very clearly. I wish this would be printed so clearly in the business section of....any News paper. I see the facts and wonder why does it work.

It reminds me of the flourishing sales of letters of indulgence during the middle ages, blessed by the popes and organized and I think even monopolized by the House of Fugger in Augsburg.

These letters of indulgence were a kind of after-life insurence against millenniums of purgatory. People perceived these letters of indulgence of buying themselves out of 10,000 years of burning in the purgatory fires and paid fortunes for it. The House of Fugger sold these papers, had very little expenses to produce them, and the pope blessed these trades, and the monks and priests did the selling talk by telling people how terrible the purgatory scenario was and how long they would burn for their sexual sins. That was an easy sell at this time.

Facts are reality. You are pointing to facts by balancing an enormous US trade deficit against the surplus of selling thin-air paper to the world.
Are facts irrational? Obviously yes. There is an irrational reality.
You captured it with your numbers.

The immensurable wealth of the House of Fugger in Augsburg was also a fact, built on irrationality. The Fuggers gave credit only to the highest levels of aristocracy: to the popes, to Kaisers and Kings. The whole Europe owed them lots and lots of money.

Another association comes up: the wonderful picture from the Chinese philosophy. Look at the fields and se how the wheat bows in the wind. That's how the invisible effects the visible world.

So far I have always loved this picture for it's aestetic purity, thinking that only beautiful things can come from the invisible, when it effects the visible world. Now I'm starting to have my doubts. The invisible world must have an incredibly terrible side. This part of the invisible, the irrationality, fed by fear, greed, selfdestructive energies, effects the world of visible facts as well, maybe even more than the winds, the messengers from the gods.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:15
Donald (Falling yen could cause Chinese devaluation, Asian depression.) ID#26793:: http://www.insidechina.com:80/china/news/98080525.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:09
Gollum (SIU8 5.275) ID#35571:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:02
strat (Mtn Bear 10:06) ID#93241:: I think you hit the nail on the head...

The thing I keep telling myself in this market is that patience is a virtue.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 11:00
jims (Foxman and Gollumn) ID#252391:: I find the fewer precious metal stocks I own when the metals are going down the better I feel. I'm starting to diversify into oil drilling and maybe even blue chip technolgy like Lucent.

I just have grown too tired of hanging on while stuff goes against me even though I think these metals will have their day - it is not yet at hand - witness silver today - sucked us right in and bam down she goes.. Gold will be making new contract lows soon, the yen has broken to new lows - gosh buy an oil stock and make yourelf feel better.Or go out on a limb and bull EWP the Spainish equivalent to the SPY or S&P 500 - look it up top performer.

Got to gete out of this gold ans silver till its going up - except that is for a few key special situations like SWC and HGMCY.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:55
truenorth__A (Donald BOC Intervention) ID#189268:: It was reported on a local radio business spot that the BOC sold more than half a billion US dollars to buy CDN$. Someone posted earlier this would start the unravelling of US$. When Japan starts their selling and other countries come to the same conclusion as Canada it will begin the downward move on US$. If AG raises rates the stock markets will be crushed, if he does nothing then Gold will rise as inflation will become more apparent. Also I will repost PMF's analysis @7:49 Currency Wars because it is excellent.

PMF ( Currency Wars ) ID#224363:
The steam-roller we all have come to know as the US dollar is charging across the currency landscape crushing everything in its past. Yen now above 145.5 per US dollar, CDN$ now above $1.53 per US dollar. Remember friends that Japan and Canada are the two largest trading partners and this will have extremely serious affects on the US economy over the next 12 months if it doesn't stop.

1. Flood of cheap imports which will keep inflation down but start to drive US producers out of business.
2. Huge decrease in Tourism. Watch for Florida to suffer the most as 250,000 Canadians stay home this coming winter.
3. Interest rates outside of the US will have to rise. The yelling and demands for higher rates have started in Canada already.
4. Asia will continue to erode ( Today Vietnam devalues 10%, watch for Thailand, Indonesia, and China next )
5. Unilateral action buy the Japanese to start dumping some of their US treasuries
6. Y2K costs will further hurt the world economy ( and the US in turn )
7. Unemployment will rise as plants shutdown and jobs leave the US
8. Don't look for Europe to help. Quite frankly they will have Euro problems and Russia to deal with.

Makes me kind of sad to see the dawn of new millenium occur with all of this going on.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:48
Gollum (The Depths of September) ID#35571:: Today will begin a one week DOW rally, precious metals descent into the depths of mid-September ( where begins the big PM bull market of the year ) . After the mini-DOW rally, the DOW plunges to its lows in December.

Thanksgiving will indeed be a time of great thanksgiving to those who buy into the PM's in September.

Remember, you heard it here first.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:47
Avalon (Goldman Sachs IPO; WSJ has front page story about why G.S. wants ) ID#254269:: tp go public. Partners want to spread the risk.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:46
Donald (Traders are shorting Canadian bonds as C$ plunges) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980806/canada_bon_3.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:43
Donald (Bank of Canada intervenes in support of slipping C$) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/bank_of_ca_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:38
Donald (Major Canadian bank slammed by stock market losses.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/cibc_cm_to_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:38
Gollum (@Skip) ID#35571:: Hey skip, did you get out yesterday or are you in for the ride?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:36
Will__A (Is anything ever clear?) ID#234427:: Greetings,

When looking at the bull market we have been in for the last several years and wondering whats going to happen it would be nice to have a logical basis for understanding what drove the bull in the first place. If you subscribe to the Harry Dent theory and look at the spending wave you would see that we are entering the third and final wave that is made up of the baby boom generation. You would see that there are three progressive waves, each larger than the last, that guarantee the flow of enormous sums of money into the market. Many other major foreign markets have similar demographic patterns and are definitely adding fuel to the fire.

This retraction we are seeing now would normally be a cyclical correction and we would resume an upward path to 21000 on the dow by around 2005.

There are some complications, however. And I think there may be some things happening that we are all familiar with. For example, if you know that a particular company is having a great quarter, the rise in price that you would expect to see with the quarterly earnings announcement is already factored in. Unless the report is other than a confirmation of the suspicion, nothing dramatic happens.

I think that in addition to a cyclical correction we are seeing the anticipated collapse of Japan and in preparation for that event markets around the world are discounting the effect and selling off in addition to the correction. Japan may be the worlds largest creditor but they have a bad debt situation that is 1.64 times their GDP. That is four times the size of our S&L problem in an economy that is one fourth the size of ours. When Japan goes, the world will feel a short sharp decline in all markets.

So we are far from through with the decline in the US market which has a ways to go between now and the elections in November. After that and the decline in all other markets from Japans demise ( probably before November ) we should see the resumption of the effect of our baby boomers and the other world demographics on markets everywhere which are very favorable. Japan won't participate because their demographics are very poor.

But there is another problem. Y2K looms. So we may get a temporary return to the upside starting in about January but it won't behave like it should absent the Y2K effect. The global economy is heavily interconnected by computers.

I wonder how many things that we have not contemplated will have a further dramatic effect on world markets. That US banks would begin pulling funds from foreign banks is totally logical, but it is one of those actions with enormous implications that had not occured to me and I am sure many others.

There have been some excellent articles on the logic for returning all currencys to a gold standard. Since all currencies today look to the strongest one as a basis for exchange rates would it not make sense that, knowing all major currencys will be disconnected by Y2K, that in order to survive and come out of the mess with a basis for value, that a renewal for the gold standard would make even more sense? I have also thought that it may be a path to a single global currency.

Ain't speculation fun

Will

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:31
FOX-MAN__A (I don't like the way things are going for me....tell it to STOP!) ID#288186:: silver down...gold...down....pa & pl down...Fox-Man down....

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:27
Mtn Bear (SE) (@gunrunner09:35) ID#347267:: I track most of the more widely known gold funds. Was gonna answer you last pm but had to catch some ZZZZ's: Vanguard is ok but charges a 1% redemption fee if shares held less than a year; can't abide this as others just as good or better which do not. for VG info see www.vanguard.com or specifically
http://majestic.vanguard.com/FP/DA/0.1.Overview/014473286707102103/1440.695737?FUND_ID=53 for gold fund info. Others I would recommend you check out when the REAL BOTTOM is confirmed: FGLDX - Invesco, BGEIX - Am Century, GOLDX - Gabelli, and of course FSAGX - Fidelity. My favorites: GOLDX ( still holding - has SA exposure ) and FGLDX Invesco ( at lows and cheap ) All have web sites, I believe ( not sure about Gabelli ) , and some can be purchased with no transaction fee from the likes of Schwab or J. White. Investigate Fee structures. Best Regards Mtn Bear

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:17
jonesy (re. Silver) ID#19870:: Hello? Whoa, where am I? Oh. Laying on a gurney bleeding, the sirens, red lights eminating from THIS ambulance. Out the window . . . blue skies. Dozing off again . . .

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:07
tolerant1 (gunrunner, Namaste' and a gulp to ya) ID#373284:: try this... EMGSX The Midas Fund http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=EMGSX&d=t

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 10:06
Mtn Bear (SE) (Kaplan) ID#347267:: Probably already posted but worth repeating anyway:
IT MAY BE EARLY AUGUST ON THE CALENDAR but it is mid-September in
the financial markets, with the first cool breezes of early autumn beginning to blow, and most baby boomers born in late April believing that a little morning frost is as cold as it will ever get, and that the overall direction is always toward higher temperatures. Our dear friend Goldilocks has exited the scene to make room for Baby Bear, adorably attired in the tatters of decreased corporate profits. According to Henry D. Mercer III, as of July 23, seven stocks-Cisco, Coke, Dell, Lucent, Microsoft, Prizer, and Warner-Lambert, were responsible for one third of the 1998 advance in the S&P 500, and all of them had P/E ratios above 50. It's the Nifty Fifty all over again-for those who forgot or who weren't around then, every six dollars invested in those large-cap can't-miss stocks in January 1973 were worth one dollar ( adjusted for inflation ) in December 1974. ---- This is not a correction in a bull market. It is the inevitable bear market that has followed the biggest stock market bubble in U.S. history.----
Last sentence really sums it up, eh?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:55
gunrunner (JTF) ID#354133:: I used to work for a JTF... What does your handle mean?

BUT, last night you spoke of some gold mutual funds. What were some of your better picks. I got no response from my Vanguard query...

Anyone?

Thanks in advance

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:54
Auric (This Forum Going to the Dogs) ID#255151:: But Siriusly folks, we got K1 and K2 for Gold investors. Bart, how about a separate forum for our 4 legged friends. Call it K9. BTW, I asked my Golden Retrievers how the Gold market has been for investors lately. They both said Ruff!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:47
jims (Another silver rally shot) ID#252391:: APH called it a low risk trade, buying silver at $5.41 stopping out at $5.30. Was indeed a low risk trade, probably not too bad a fill on the stops. Here we have silver the weakest of the group and it was doing so well.

Cleared out all my silver stocks two days ago. Would have to get back in if silver were to close above $5.50, the dollar index were to fall below 100.50 +/- ( this week's low ) or the bonds were to break below this week's low.

Confidence is returningto the European markets, and now the AMerican equitiy.

Maybe APH will tell us where to short the S&P - I'd say at 1130.

Do you feel lucky

Dow 10,000 before gold 315?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:44
tolerant1 (Thomas Paine ) ID#373284:: Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:32
Year2000 (Secret Y2K Government Conspiracy?) ID#182184:: So someone thinks that the government has an evil plan for the Year 2000. Did they put Elvis in charge of this effort?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:31
STUDIO.R (@Gollum) ID#288369:: What appears to be the wreckage of a DC3 has been spotted approximately 125 miles southwset of Denver. There does appear to be signs of survival. However, we will not be able to verify the condition of the craft and its crew until later in the day. Prayer is in order. Will keep you posted. vaya con dios mi amigo.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:30
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...mmm...mmm...mmm...) ID#373284:: Lethargy [is] the forerunner of death to the public liberty.
--Thomas Jefferson to William Stephens Smith, 1787.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:26
Allen(USA) (Garner Survey) ID#246224:: Gartner's year-2000 survey finds
widespread disruptions likely

By Nancy Weil
InfoWorld Electric

Posted at 11:46 AM PT, Aug 5, 1998
A new global survey of year-2000 readiness shows that many
firms do not plan to test new systems and up to two-thirds of
businesses in some countries -- particularly in Asia, South
America, and the Middle East -- are expected to have at least one
significant mission-critical failure.

However, the research by GartnerGroup did find that companies
worldwide are spending more of their IT budgets on fixing
computer systems to properly handle dates from Jan. 1, 2000
onward.

The United States continues to lead the way in preparedness
among businesses and government agencies, followed closely by
Holland, Belgium, Sweden, Canada, and Australia. Western European
countries are generally making good progress, with the exception
of Germany, which is quite a bit behind other nations in the
region, said Gartner research director Lou Marcoccio Wednesday
during a teleconference outlining the research.

Two-thirds of the companies in Russia, China, India, the Middle
East excluding Israel, Argentina, and Venezuela and half of the
companies in Japan, Germany, Mexico, and Malaysia are expected to
have one major mission-critical failure, Marcoccio said.

Gartner is surveying 15,000 companies in 87 countries worldwide
every three months to track their progress in making their
systems year-2000 compliant. Worldwide, 23 percent of all
companies have yet to begin dealing with year-2000 issues.

That sounds like perhaps a high number, and, yes, it is as far
as actual numbers of companies; however, one year ago 50 percent
of all companies had not started, Marcoccio said.

While some of the recent findings are startling, Marcoccio also
wants to alert companies that if they believe business insurance
policies will cover losses related to year-2000 problems, they
will likely be surprised to learn that is not so.

More than 40 U.S. states are allowing insurance companies to
exclude losses resulting from business interruptions owing to
lack of year-2000 compliance even though these policies were
sold under the assumption that business interruptions would be
covered, period, Marcoccio said.

Three large insurance companies that operate in various parts
of the world also have said they will not cover accidents that
result from year-2000 issues, he said, declining to name the
companies during the teleconference.

This can get very sticky in the future, Marcoccio said. It
can be said that, gee, if a plane crashes and that plane had to
carry 10 percent more cargo because a company was increasing
their stock to avoid a potential year-2000 crisis, ( the insurance
companies ) can say that was a factor in the crash and therefore
refuse to pay.

Most older software systems were written with two-digit date
fields that are expected to read the 00 in 2000 as 1900 and
consequently make incorrect calculations. Some industries such as
banking are fairly well along in making computer systems
year-2000 compliant, but others, including food processing,
agriculture and farming, some government services, construction,
law, and medical practice are lagging, Marcoccio said.

Insurance, banking, and investment services are ahead of other
industries. At the other end of the spectrum, two-thirds of the
companies in food processing, government services, farming or
agriculture, health care and education, and half of the companies
in chemical processing or manufacturing, construction, the oil
industry, power, gas and water utilities, and the legal industry
are expected to have one major mission-critical failure owing to
year-2000 problems. The semiconductor industry is similarly
ill-prepared, Marcoccio said.

Failures already have been happening and will continue over a
wide time span.

The failures are not all going to occur on Jan. 1, 2000, or
Jan. 2, 2000, Marcoccio said.

But there is increased awareness of and spending on year-2000
issues, the survey found. In 1997, just 5 percent of IT budgets
were being used to deal with the problem. That figure jumped to
18 percent for the first two quarters of this year and is
expected to jump to 29 percent by the end of the year.

While that might be viewed as good news in one sense, it's bad
news for other areas of IT budgets where companies are foregoing
spending.

More dismal still is the view apparently being taken by IT
professionals. A Gartner survey of 6,000 IT professionals found
in November of 1997 that 38 percent said they will take one
month to three month's worth of money out of the bank to cover
expenses as 2000 approaches. A recent revision of that survey
found the figure had jumped to 50 percent.

It has yet to be seen if that level of alarm will indeed be
warranted, but Marcoccio said that given the tenuous financial
situation in countries that are teetering on bankruptcy now,
serious worldwide disruptions could be in the offing. This could
have a considerable effect on the global economy and the world in
general, he said.

Gartner will provide additional survey results at its upcoming
Symposium/ITxpo 98 in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., Oct. 12-16.

Other year-2000 news out this week from researchers Meta Group,
Giga Information Group, and the Information Technology
Association of America ( ITAA ) includes the following:

Meta, based in Stamford, Conn., said that it has available
Y2K: A Practical Business Guide, which offers advice to companies
trying to prepare for 2000. Pricing information may be obtained
at http://www.metagroup.com.

Giga, based in Norwell, Mass., warned that enterprise
networks and the telecommunications infrastructure on which
networks depend are at risk of failure. Many companies have not
considered Internet connectivity in year-2000 plans, the market
researcher said.

A supply-side survey from the ITAA, in Arlington, Va.,
found that most IT companies that offer products or services
dealing with year-2000 issues say that business has been far from
brisk. The survey of 100 businesses found that 37 percent are
meeting year-2000-related sales and revenue projections and just
12 percent say that they have all of the business they can take
on for the next half year.

GartnerGroup Inc., in Stamford, Conn., can be reached at
http://www.gartnerweb.com.

Nancy Weil is a correspondent in the Boston bureau of the IDG
News Service, an InfoWorld affiliate.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:25
Novice (Watch out, someone's makin' a run at silver...) ID#375108:: At 0923, Bart is showing silver ( spot ) at $5.32, down $0.10 or -1.85%.. Ouch!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:22
STUDIO.R (@Janet Reno.......) ID#288369:: I forgot to tell you that your duties at the library will include brief periods of having to lick a dog's butt. I trust you will find this not out of the ordinary. studio.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:21
FOX-MAN__A (rhody; So true...BTW, good post earlier. I agree with your bird's eye view.) ID#288186:: Fox-Man

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:20
rhody (@ Nick: I think that's a head and shoulders bottom.) ID#411440:: The trouble with that opinion is my pomeranians have been 100%
incorrect in calling the gold market.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:19
tolerant1 (STUDIO_R, Namaste' and an early morning gulp to ya, now on to my comment...) ID#373284:: I would not let Reno tend to the sores on my dog's butt from the infection left by Camdesuss...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:19
Nick@C (G'nite all. 11:30 pm here.) ID#386245:: My dogs say gold is going up today due to tension over the E.African bombings. We'll see if their bark is worse than their bite.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:16
Nick@C (rhody) ID#386245:: No, mate. Pomeranians are just fine. I'm sure they can pick the direction of gold better than any of us. Perhaps we can set up a conference bark between your poms, my rotties and Disney's Ben. Ben is blind. This is not a detriment when picking gold shares.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:14
rhody (@ FOX-MAN: the ONLY factor that will stimulate sustained) ID#411440:: buying interest in gold is a decline in the American Dollar.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:11
FOX-MAN__A (If we have conflicts brewing, as in Kenya(the car bombing) and Iraq, wouldn't) ID#288186:: that keep Gold at least stable? I've always heard wars generally
cause the metals to rise. Of course, we're not in any full blown
war....yet.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:10
rhody (@ Nick: I've been investing for the past two and one half years) ID#411440:: using pomeranians. Do you think I should switch breeds now?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:08
STUDIO.R (@Janet Reno......) ID#288369:: I am not sure, and I am presumptious, but I think I can get you a librarian job at the University of Oklahoma. There, you will be able to mingle and have lunch with other dignitaries such as Anita Hill and David Boren. Something to consider in the days ahead...just let my secretary know....I don't want to be overheard talking to you.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:07
rube (fri) ID#333127:: Don't forget, no reason for gold to go up today, nobody wants it over the wk.end

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:03
jims (Excellent Overview Rhody) ID#252391:: Think you are right.
The fall of the dollar will signal the turn in alternative investments: ie: gold and silver?

If so the 100 area on the US Dollar index should be watched. Also I think we have to subtract out the Asian currencies or the yen an watch the DM, SF, Pound, the Spainish Peso and the Lire.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:02
Nick@C (G'day rhody) ID#386245:: If this chart is a head and shoulders top, we are all in big trouble. We are just now at a sloping neckline. Whatever is the most logical is probably the opposite of what is going to happen. The heavy commercial accumulation of long Yen and gold positions will, however, eventually turn the tide. Just to be sure, I'll go and ask my rotties.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 09:02
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:: Nick@C -- You're right! That Aussie gold chart looks butt ugly!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:51
STUDIO.R (@gunrunner...........) ID#288369:: Oh Yeaa! muchas garcias. ;^ ) ~

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:51
rhody (@ Nick: do you think that aussie gold index graph is a head and ) ID#411440:: shoulders top or bottom?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:48
Tantalus__A (gunrunner - ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah - I luv am humor) ID#374204:

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:41
Nick@C (Try again--Aussie gold index) ID#386245:: http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:41
STUDIO.R (@reaching into the golden pot.......) ID#288369:: I find this. That I must be careful to diminish this inner need to be right, especially when it is in conflict with the welfare of others.

Auraticus......thanks for the number, I'll use it well.

EarlO, eat more tuna......think oriental.

T#1...peace that passeth understanding.

Ben....bark on.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:39
tolerant1 (ah...yeah...) ID#373284:: ��The President shall ... take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed. ...��
--U. S. Constitution

Visit THE FEDeralist at:
http://www.TheFed.com

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:39
gunrunner (Oh goody...) ID#354133:: I didn't get 404-ed... as much a few folks would LOVE to see it. Thanks Bart.

All - Apologies for the .44 Magnum comment... No body would be better off with that...

So, as a token JESTure of amends, ( and since Tort hasn't posted one yet ) here's a little funny for your amusement:

From a contest from the Island that is Long . The requirements were to use thewords Lewinski and Kaczynski in a limerick. Here are the 3 winners:

Entry #1:

There once was a gal named Lewinsky
Who played on a flute like Stravinsky
'Twas Hail to the Chief
On this flute made of beef
That stole the front page from Kaczynski.

Entry #2:

Said Bill Clinton to young Ms. Lewinsky
We don't want to leave clues like Kaczynski,
Since you look such a mess,
Use the hem of your dress
And wipe that stuff off of your chinsky.

Entry #3:

Lewinsky and Clinton have shown
What Kaczynski must surely have known:
That an intern is better
Than a bomb in a letter
Given the choice of how to be blown.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:38
Nick@C (Thanks to Bill Buckler for these charts.) ID#386245:: Gold is holding up well in A$ terms:

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozgold.html>http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozgold.html

But the Aussie gold share index is looking extremely ugly:

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/ozgold.html

Normandy ( the biggest component of the previous chart ) is at multi-year lows. I can't see much forward selling by Aussie producers at these levels. In fact--just the opposite. They should be buying back their forwards. The company pockets the cash and keeps a reserve for hard times, or pays off debt to keep the bankers happy. Some companies are talking about buying back their own shares.

Hang in there gold bugs. It is always the darkest at the bottom of the hole. Now where is that rope-ladder

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:37
Tantalus__A (newtron & Ersel - The National Organization for Women (NOW)) ID#374204:: will never vent any of their vitriolic rage against Bill Clinton because
NOW is controlled by lesbians, such as Patricia Ireland, and support
gay rights only. Many hetero women have bailed, as women's rights
are no longer on the NOW agenda.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:37
tolerant1 (Kennedy gave away Cuba...uh huh...) ID#373284:: Clintler is about to give away the world...expect to see alot of fine young men and women who are in the armed services of the USA lose their lives in the next several months...

Having a traitor as Commander in Chief is not the right way to go...

It is that simple...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:10
rhody (Comments: Kitcoites spent the last 8 hours discussing macro-financial) ID#411440:: trends in the world. Very interesting; thank you. Now for my
two cents ( all it's worth ) :

1. Alan Greenspan keeps hinting of an interest rate hike, but doesn't
actually do it. This implies that the FED thinks the real problem
will be inflation, not deflation.

2. The POG is telling us we are in a deflation. But the POG has
been subjected to gross manipulation. ( admitted by AG via lease
rates ) .

3. The USD has been manipulated upward by high real interest rates
in the face of the Asian Crisis ( competetive devaluations of
local currencies, lowering interest rates abroad, and a flight
to apparent quality in the USD partly because of the DOW boom,
and partly because of low apparent inflation in the USA. This
has allowed the US consumer/corporation to buy foreign assets
at firesale prices ( as intended ) .

RESULTS

1. The USD is upwards of 30% overvalued.

2. The US is working on a $300 billion trade deficit, but probaby
has a current account surplus becasue of the foreign investment
in US paper. Eventually the trade deficit will collapse the
US dollar and the current account will turn massively negative.

3. The overvalued USD is not only turning off American exports, but
is hurting American commodity production like food and minerals.

4. The CPI index in the US has been manipulated to show now inflation,
as this index is strongly weighted in food, transportation, and
products which are priced in overvalued dollars, hence deflated
artificially. There is massive asset inflation in the US:
real estate, equities, bonds.

So when the USD falls, it can only fall against the POG and massive
real inflation will become visible.

OR as was posted earlier: It's the dollar stupid

Will we go into hyperinflation, or a deflation, or something inbetween
called stagflation. I think it will be stagflation, but so severe,
we should call it depflation. The correction of the early seventies
caused a ten year stagflation instead of a depression, because the
Fed inflated in time. I think they can do this again, but the
market has been so parabolic for so long, has got so far above the
21/2% trend line, that the period of high inflation, zero growth, and
high unemployment will be deeper and longer this time, and aggravated
by Y2K. Hence depflation or a depression characterized by higher and
higher prices for goods and services.

That's the way I see it. or IMHO.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 08:07
Nick@C (Gonna let my two rottweilers...) ID#386245:: ...pick gold shares for me. Danged if I can figure 'em out. A few days ago gold jumps 5 bucks and my shares took a beating. Today gold was down and my shares went up 5k. Am gonna give this game away and let the dogs do all the work. Now--let's see: one bark = yes and two barks = no. A growl means the share is a 'dog' and a lick means 'buy'.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:58
Fred(@Vienna)__A () ID#185448:: no comment

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/top_stories/story.html?s=z/reuters/980807/news/stories/scandal_11.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:57
tolerant1 (If you doubt there is serious trouble brewing and or worry about the price of gold...) ID#373284:: Ms. Reno refused to release memos from FBI Director Louis Freeh and others at the Justice Department calling on her to appoint an independent counsel to conduct the investigation.

In testimony before the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee, Chairman Dan Burton asked Mr. Freeh about the targets of such an investigation: ��Does that include the President and the Vice President?�� Mr. Freeh replied: ��Yes sir.��

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:53
Donald (Bema, Placer gold news) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980804/chile_gene_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:49
PMF (Currency Wars ) ID#224363:: The steam-roller we all have come to know as the US dollar is charging across the currency landscape crushing everything in its past. Yen now above 145.5 per US dollar, CDN$ now above $1.53 per US dollar. Remember friends that Japan and Canada are the two largest trading partners and this will have extremely serious affects on the US economy over the next 12 months if it doesn't stop.

1. Flood of cheap imports which will keep inflation down but start to drive US producers out of business.
2. Huge decrease in Tourism. Watch for Florida to suffer the most as 250,000 Canadians stay home this coming winter.
3. Interest rates outside of the US will have to rise. The yelling and demands for higher rates have started in Canada already.
4. Asia will continue to erode ( Today Vietnam devalues 10%, watch for Thailand, Indonesia, and China next )
5. Unilateral action buy the Japanese to start dumping some of their US treasuries
6. Y2K costs will further hurt the world economy ( and the US in turn )
7. Unemployment will rise as plants shutdown and jobs leave the US
8. Don't look for Europe to help. Quite frankly they will have Euro problems and Russia to deal with.

Makes me kind of sad to see the dawn of new millenium occur with all of this going on.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:46
Donald (Gold falls in sympathy with weakening yen (London morning news)) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/markets_pr_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:41
John Disney__A (Advanced Gone !!) ID#24135:: To all
Just got ADVANCED GET .. all the fun has gone out
of my life .. its gonna be work work work ..
Ben will be posting for on my behalf .. he'll fit
right in ...

Ben speaks ..
DOWN DOWN .. YOU DOG-BONES AVERAGE .. JUST LOW
ENOUGH FOR ME TO REACH YA .. I CANT SEEYA BUT I
CAN SMELLYA .. IM THE GREATEST .. IM BEN .. BRING
ON YOUR GERMAN SHEPHARDS .. SCHEISS .. WOOF.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:37
Steve in TO__A (First Sony- now Toyota chairman issues a warning . . .) ID#287337:: Toyota President Warns of Global Stock Crash

the Japanese banking system at issue

Japan's economic woes could trigger a global stock market crash unless the country rapidly reforms the banking sector, the president of Toyota, the motor group, warned on Thursday.

There is a possibility of Japan triggering a worldwide financial crisis, such as a steep stock market plunge involving Europe and the US, Hiroshi Okuda said. To avoid that, [solving] the bad loan problem is an urgent task.

Mr Okuda, who was addressing Japan's Employers' Federation, where he is vice-chairman, has a reputation for being frank, but such an outspoken warning is still highly unusual for a business figure of his stature.

His appeal comes as some Japanese economists and western investors are expressing mounting concern that the country's ruling Liberal Democratic party may backslide on earlier commitments to take radical action to tackle the country's financial sector problems.

Such concerns have recently weighed on the markets. The Nikkei 225, the key stock market indicator, on Thursday closed 0.72 per cent lower at 15,876.22 - before Mr Okuda's comments were made public - pulled down by a sharp fall in bank shares.

The markets are likely to analyse carefully what Keizo Obuchi, Japan's prime minister, says to parliament on Friday in his first keynote speech since he was elected as LDP leader last month.

Mr Obuchi is expected to argue that the LDP is resolving the financial sector problems by presenting a bill to parliament next week which will create a bridge bank to wind up the affairs of insolvent banks. The Financial Supervisory Agency, Japan's regulator, is now conducting a two-month inspection of 13 large banks in an effort to boost international investor confidence in the banks and decide whether they should be closed.

However, a senior FSA official has said that the FSA cannot release the inspection results.

He said: Our [civil service] code prohibits us from publishing the outcome of the inspections. It is up to the Japanese banks to decide whether they would like to disclose the results or not.

The FSA argues that the only way this can be changed is through parliamentary procedure.

Some bureaucrats hope that market pressure will force the LDP to change the parliamentary procedure. The FSA insists that its inspection will be free from political pressure. It is my strong intention to protect the independence of the inspectors, a senior FSA official said.

However, Brian Waterhouse of HSBC Securities argues: The FSA will have no choice but to say that everything is fine. . . Nobody wants to declare a bank insolvent.

The Financial Times, August 6, 1998

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:32
Gollum (More free money) ID#35571:: So lets say the IMF decides to lease some gold at 1%. Since their book value of the asset being leased is $35 an ounce, they are getting an effective 8% back....

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:29
Gollum (Free money) ID#35571:: Does anyone know what the various central banks value their gold reserves at in dollars per ounce? I think the IMF carries theirs at the old $35 per ounce.

So when the IMF wants to pump up it's book reserves, all it has to do is sell some gold at open market prices and stick the cash in the vault. If for some strange reason they should wish to lower reserves they buy some gold.

Works great as long as gold stays above $35.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 07:02
ROR (gold) ID#412286:: If it stays down today that will be 12 out of 14 consecutive down days. The persistence is amazing especially when you consider that the small traders are short and the commercials substantially long. I guess the gold market is proof that the speculator and little guy are smarter than the big guy.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:32
Ersel (Y.O.S.) ID#230376:: Dittos ! and thanks........bbl

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:30
newtron (Ersel) ID#388209:: I got that sign off from the Phantom of the Opera. One kwel dooder.

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:28
Donald (Gold fund may shut its doors; return funds to investors.) ID#26793:: http://detnews.com:80/1998/biz/9808/06/08060087.htm

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:16
newtron (Ersel) ID#388209:: Y.O.S. = Your Obediant Servant, a quint conservative convention of polity. Sometimes I am Y.entirely ignorant.O.S. !

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:14
Leland (Let's Take a Moment For a Laugh) ID#316193:: http://www.aci.net/kalliste/

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:12
Donald (News on explosion) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/kenya_expl_2.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:07
Ersel (@ newtron.....) ID#230376:: The feminazis will not turn against BC because they ARE nazi-liberal pinko dumbkoffs. They should have gotten behind Paula, Monika, and the many other babes BC has or attempted to violate, but they are nowhere to be seen/heard. Dont forget that this pondslime president has been dorking around for many moons.....Otherwise I agree with you 99&44/100%.......BTW what does Y.O.S. mean?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 06:03
Cage Rattler (BREAKING NEWS - US EMBASSY BOMBS) ID#33184:: There have been large explosions at the US embassies in both Tanzania and Kenya resulting in many casualties. So far there is no information on who did it, but if Saddam is speculated to have a role in this a US retaliatory attack is sure to follow ( although this is all mere speculation the fact that it is in two countries at the same time will raise the eyebrows of any respectable conspiracy theorist )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:54
Leland (newtron) ID#316193:: All I can say, the Clinton era is over. It's done, and history
writers will have much to write about for years and years.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:49
newtron (Leland - Boy Prez musings.) ID#335184:: When will the femarad/nazies turn on Siick for the sexual predator & molestor of female soubordinates that he is ? The NOW nags have no shame & the Soccer Moms are as dumb as dirt !

He's married to a Black Widow Spider who has been his courage to the sticking post accomplice to most of his crimes, but at some point even her supporters would have to cut out on the palpable hypocracy that remaining mute entails ! Roberto durand's NO mas ! , comes to mind !

Remember that extraordinary scene from I Claudius when the Roman politician & his wife are hopelessly trapped in the intrigue of treason, but the family S lives & fortune, dignity & wealth can be preserved if the Husband can screw his honor & courage to the sticking post & fall on his sword like a true & noble Roman. The wife exclaims as she rips the sword out of her husband's cowardly hand & turns around that she will show her husband how a true Roman takes her own life with dinity & honor. And as her Husband lunges for her to prevent the deed, she whirls around & thrusts the blade squarely, deep into the belly of her incredulous coconspiritor !
What a scene. Unfortunately, Hillary will probably just get tired of getting screwed & being used as a beard for Bill's Marqi De Sade routine inject her poison of political viability & eat him later.

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:25
Donald (Asian jitters causing investors to abandon Mexico for safer havens.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980806/poll_mexic_2.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:23
Leland (Bill Clinton and Other Crumbling Towers of Babble) ID#316193:: http://www.reagan.com/HOTTopics.main

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:15
Donald (Russian debt problems draging down other countries.) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980806/emerging_m_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:14
CPO@AU (Re Euro Puzzled) ID#329186:: True I feel the euro is a disaster waiting to happen however can someone enlighten me,if the Euro has 10% gold reserve ( not backing ) as stated what will the other 90% be made up of ? US$ or YEN ?
very puzzled

go gold cpo-uk

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:06
Donald (Vietnam devalues 9.1% against the dollar and other Asian market gloom) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/markets_as_1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 05:06
Roebear (James) ID#412172:: James, did a quick search. It appears Ole 49r is on record for a capitulation low of POG $198, with some caveats I believe. She was on a web radio link Thursday, sorry I missed that. She has made some good calls like you say. Hope this ain't one of them.

http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5410019

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:49
Donald (Chinese and HK devaluation worries drag HK stocks down to 3 1/2 year low) ID#26793:: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980807/hk_stocks__1.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:47
newtron (Bloop, One last Godzilla Rant & one last caveat re Neutron Bomb !) ID#335184:: Tried to sleep, but your Newmont purchase has me worried . If I am right about the S&P falling sharply, any stock in the S&P index funds would get clobbered in the redemption Tsunami !

Also, as to the First President's cheating husband, ( stand By Your Scum honey & show the world you love him ) in spite of the relentless interviews on Hanoi Jane's Communist News Network of the dim wits & good hearted fools who blather that The Boy Prez ought not to be impeached for having sex or even lying about it, suborning purgery or engaging in the obstruction of justice to cover it up ! DUUUUUUUUGH !
He deserves to be impeached because he is a pathological liar of insane proportions & a sexual predator of weak subordinates that makes Bob Packwood look like Pinky Lee ! The crimes are : Having a nose like a vacum cleaner; invasion of privacy in filegate with criminal intent to commit blackmail & extortion; criminal abuse of prosecutorial authority to intimidate & destroy Billy Dale & his associates; sexually assaulting Kathleen Willey; criminal subversion of the civil disconvery process in the Paula jones civil suit in an attempt to avoid paying damages to another low level female subrdinate who he sexually assaulted while on the job; & accpting & soliciting illeagle campaign funds from the Chinese communists & their surrogates at Hughs Et al & the quid quo pros granted to China as well as his pre-empting the criminal probe into these nefarious matters. Let's just forget about the rape of Arkansaw & the plunder of millions of dollars of federally guaranteed S&L money. Don't forget that Starr also has Jim Guy Tucker in his back pocket & that guy will not go down alone with all the skeletons as a slutt or a nutt when his grand jury testimony hits the light of day.
ALSO THERE IS ONE MORE LOOMING WHOOPING PARALELL FROM WATERGATE. IF THE VICE STOOGE grants the FORMER BOY PREZ ( orThe First Prez ) A pardon, he can kiss the election good bye, A LA Jerry ( Wip Inflatioun now ) Ford !

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:35
Leland (John Crudele's THOUGHTS For Today (A Great Read as Usual)) ID#316193:: http://www.nypostonline.com/business/3106.htm

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:27
Cage Rattler (Spotlight on Asia - Internet Currency Trading News 4:15AM) ID#33184:: Asian markets have been rattled by increasing signs that the both Hong Kong and China might devalue. The Chinese Yuan has been under a lot of pressure lately with the central Bank supporting it twice this week. China's economy is seen as slowing sharply, and trade flows are turning negative. There is also the fact that China may have understated it troubles. When the Asian crisis began fears of a Chinese devaluation were based on the fact that 60% of exports go to Asia and 80% of foreign directly investment also comes from Asia. Since then the market has relaxed as analysts began to explain the relative resiliency of China as US and European companies making up for Asian weakness. Yet even though Chinese statistics have been showing a current account surplus the country's forex reserves have failed to grow. This has prompted us to question the validity of Chinese statistics, as the forex reserves levels show that the current account surplus has been wiped out. The black market is also pricing the Chinese currency 10% below its official level. Adding fuel to the fire Chinese statements of denying a devaluation have been getting scarcer, and today the governor of the Chinese Central Bank said that although a devaluation will not happen, a small adjustment in the rate cannot be ruled out. Fears of a Chinese devaluation are also prompting another test of the Hong Kong Dollar's peg against the US Dollar. The Honk Kong Dollar has been under attack by short sellers for the third straight day on the forward and spot markets. The significance of shorts on the spot market is that they would only do it if they thought that devaluation was imminent. dealers in honk Kong report that volumes are at the same levels as the October 1997 global market crash. This time around Honk Kong will have a hard time resisting a devaluation since its economy is contracting, and it will not be able to bear the high interest rates needed to keep the peg. The Hang Seng index closed at 7010 down 244 points or 3.36%. Although many analysts see Hong Kong's $95 billion in forex reserves as ample to hold off attacks the domestic deposits in Hong Kong Dollars total almost $800 billion, and if a small portion of that money panics seeking the US Dollar safe have then the peg will collapse. All This gloom and doom is unlikely to happen in the short run, but jitters will help $/Yen keep its bullish tone. $/Yen just off daily high of 145.61 after Mark/Yen broke 82 level. Key resistance is at 145.85 which would open the way to new multi year highs. Mark/Yen facing resistance at 82.50, but it is in territory not seen in six years and therefore all resistance points are weak.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:25
Squirrel (Since I just purchased several small Gold Maple Leafs) ID#280214:: That covers my monthly quota until November or so - about the time the Y2K fever really should get the media lathered up. I may wait until then to see what develops. In the meantime - I shall be squirreling away more guns and peanut butter.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:18
Squirrel (Cage Rattler - that post should rattle a few cages!) ID#280214:: I agree with many here that Gold is a foundation upon which to build
economic security in uncertain times. I agree that I should buy some.
BUT
Again I express the opinion that, though I may get on the boat late
or miss it altogether - depending on my ability to respond it time,
I may likely be able to buy more Gold later this year for less US$.

I would hate buying it now only to see it drop to half the present POG.
This would only exacerbate the injury inflicted by the recent drops.

Maybe investing a day's pay in Gold once each month in Gold would be
prudent insurance whichever way the POG turns. I can not justify more.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:06
Cage Rattler (NO BOTTOM FOR GOLD - Financial Mail, South Africa) ID#33184:: http://www.fm.co.za/98/0807/trends/bear.htm

NO BOTTOM FOR GOLD

The bears are gathering

In its gold pages of July 24, the electronic publication The Privateer predicted that the precious metal, which had been trading in a range of US$290-$300/oz for months, would fall below its $290/oz support level.

The prediction was based on a comparison of the movements in the gold price as bullion approached the four previous bottoms - in 1976, 1982, 1985 and 1993 - with its recent behaviour. The weekly lows on July 10, 17 and 24 were $290,80, $290,80 and $290,50. And on July 31 the precious metal was $288,85 at the London afternoon fix.

The Privateer sees no bottom.

The July issue of the International Bank Credit Analyst is equally bearish. The historic turning point in gold fortunes, it says, came when Fed chairman Paul Volcker declared war on inflation.

With inflation now returning to the levels of the early Sixties, it seems likely that gold will follow it down. This means a price of close to $200 in today's terms, says the publication.

The Banker, published by the Institute of Bankers of SA, discusses another constraint on the gold price - the introduction, next year, of a single currency in the European Community, to be managed by a European Central Bank.

Many currencies now held as part of foreign reserves by central banks in Europe will disappear. This will mean gold holdings will become larger as a percentage of total reserves. The implication is that gold now in the vaults of European central banks will find its way on to the market.

By: Ethel Hazelhurst

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:05
blooper (Enjoy this short rally) ID#207145:: For if you tarry past midweek, you shall lose money. Next stop 8350.
As Alfred would say Goooood EEEEVVVVVEEEENNNNNIIIINNNNGGGG.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 04:04
Squirrel (more on the male thing and Gold) ID#280214:: I do not foresee males being untied from the expectation by cultures, societies, institutions and females in general that males must provide and defend. As long as that is the case primitive expectations will continue to beget primitive results.

There are exceptions
where financially successful women do not expect men to provide for them. But even there - the expectation of defense still persists. Remove both needs and females are free to dispense with us - at least individually. They still demand police forces, militaries, and social services which are predominately either manned or payed for my males. One way or the other, males are still expected to bring home the Gold and to defend it - either to an individual family unit or to the society in general.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:54
blooper (Bull, Bull,and more Bull) ID#207145:: Tangents also. How in the world can we think clearly, in a fundamental way, with so many side shows going on. Voo Doo economics for sure. It's the dollar stupid.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:48
Squirrel (Lock&Lode re your 19:08 last evening.) ID#280214:: Your statement:
It must be a male thing -- seeing the potential danger of a cash meltdown.

Maybe it is. We are expected by most cultural mores and by most females {consciously or not} to be the providers. After eons of being selected for such traits we may be hardwired to be concerned about our ability to provide. This may explain our preoccupation with earning more ( a means to obtain resources ) , hoarding/saving {food, tools, and other property or resources}, and defense of the above ( with guns, ammo, swords, and hand to hand combat}.

Our sense of self-worth has been defined, by us and those who select us, in terms of how well we can provide. Regardless of how much we may rebel at the custom and how much others may downplay the importance of such primitive drives that is who we are because that is how we have been fashioned. Even today, when you look beyond the intellectual discussion about what females desire in a mate, they still place a lot of value on the male's ability to earn money, wield power, and control resources. Whether females realize it or not, they subtly or not so subtly give preferences for their attention to males who demonstrate their ability to provide and defend. Marriages still run into trouble over the perceived inability of the male to adequately provide. The entire social services mission is to force all males to provide for those females who have been inadequately provided for. Whether we like it or not, males are still held to that standard. Thus yes, it is a male thing to be concerned about the potential danger of a cash meltdown as you put it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:48
blooper (Golden Cheezewhiz) ID#207145:: Soros is doing the same thing as a devaluation. Check out Hang Sing.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:43
blooper (Gold bottoms before oil) ID#207145:: Is this correct Mozelle?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:41
blooper (Things are coming together for gold) ID#207145:: The CRB is strongest in the fall. We got a bear market. The dollar is weakening. The Yen is strengthening. So what does you butwipes say to that? Just kidding.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:31
mozel (@Perspective) ID#153102:: Could gold go to $196 or $140 ?
Well, what would be the POG if it were not trading officially anywhere ?
Even now POG is fixed.
Not quite so fixed as when FDR's official buying price was set at $42.XX per oz, but CB fixed nevertheless. Think of it. FDR said to South African miners, I will give you 42 pieces of green printed paper for one ounce of gold. And they jumped at the chance to ship their gold to America for 42 pieces of green printed paper. Why ? Because they could buy American products with those 42 pieces of paper, which were supposed themselves to be redeemable in gold. The impossibility of paying for gold with 42 pieces of paper and then redeeming all that paper for gold did not occupy people's atention at the time. But by 1972, of course, the last lie was exposed.

WWI bankrupted the world. Before WWI men worked for money. After WWI men everywhere eventually labored in peace and war for scrip. A century of collective slavery and insanity.

Now the CB's are buying gold with paper that carries not even a pretense of redemption for anything. And so am I.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:25
SWP1 (I noticed from Bart's Charts) ID#233199:: When only HK was open both Gold and Silver went up..?!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:24
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (BLOOP--) ID#431263:: When China devalues the Yuan and HK dollar is decoupled from the US dollar. That'll be the day to start thinkin' about buyin' HK! Till then, vergessen Sie es!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:22
blooper (Squirrel) ID#207145:: Gold and silver have sucked on their own. Fundamentals will always win out. Money talks and bull manure talks. There is a lot of bull at Kitco. Everything is a conspiracy.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:20
SWP1 (@Blooper) ID#233199:: A new society of bottom huggers?

Gives kissing butt a new meaning...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:19
blooper (I wonder when Hong Kong Will Be A buy?) ID#207145:: Soros is doing his evil again.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:16
Squirrel (Blooper) ID#280214:: I thought money was politics - or at least political.
Perhaps that impression is due to recent government shenanigans to manipulate the value of all currencies and Gold and Silver too.

Perhaps in older, simpler times money was apolitical.
Back when Gold and Silver were money and money was honest.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:15
blooper (Squirrel) ID#207145:: Gold goes up when foreigners sell bonds and stocks. It has already started. The bear that is. Gold has bottomed out. We are due some inflation this time of year also.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:10
Squirrel (A local trader - who is not online - pity him) ID#280214:: Keeps telling me that when the Goldbugs start sounding like bears,
when the most ardent supporters of Gold throw in the towel,
THAT is when to buy Gold!
I agree with him in that respect.
BUT I fear Gold has more down to go - at least until late this year.
Y2K could give it a kick. But I agree with James that if the Euro and European economies run into trouble - Gold will sink even further.
It may take a while before things get bad enough for the POG to rise.
It used to take merely a rumor of bad news on the horizon.
Now it seems it may take World War III plus Great Depression II
and maybe even the appearance of the anti-christ to kick the POG up.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:10
blooper (Squirrel) ID#207145:: The Yen is great for Gold..by the way.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:08
blooper (Squirrel) ID#207145:: Their Bubble is over, Ours is a big problem. Bet on the Yen. Money doesnt mix with politics.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 03:02
Squirrel (Gold, Yen and ANOTHER) ID#280214:: Blooper,
The Yen may be a good bet. There is much there we may be led to not see. All this concern about Asian troubles and a fragile Japanese economy may be covering a sleeping giant. I believe many Japanese would relish an economic victory over the sleeping giant that vanquished them in WWII.

P.S. a collection of ANOTHER's thoughts may be found at:
http://www.usagold.com/ANOTHER_PAGE.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:54
aurator (dust in the wind) ID#257148:: Eldo

You mean it's like betting WHEN the man is going to fall off the tight-rope?

It is reasonable to walk a tight rope for an hour, even 6 hours, but after 6 days, 6 weeks and 6 months you know he's gonna fall off someday.

Got the time?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:52
blooper (Squirrel) ID#207145:: The Yen is a good bet....Soon maybe the only bet.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:49
blooper (Eldorado) ID#207145:: Comforting, very comforting.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:49
Squirrel (James - your 00:33 makes sense unless OIL holds us over ANOTHER's barrel) ID#280214:: Gold vies with the Dollar, Euro, and perhaps Yen for safe refuge.

The US Dollar has many faults that we are aware of here. Y2K, the market bubble, impending drought, Clinton's destruction of our governments - from local to federal ( with Republicans aiding & abetting ) , etc. etc.

The Yen - not a good bet though there are many questions about their political arrangements with Washington and their US treasury holdings.

The Euro may be unstable for various reasons I have gathered from various international sources such the Economist and a general reading of human and European/Western history. Europe...
1 ) Is putting off Y2K repairs will savage them in 2000+
2 ) Will be unable to overcome millenia-old nationalistic rivalries
3 ) Is excessively vulnerable to Mid-East turmoil/missiles/oil supply
4 ) Is excessively burdened by economically destructive social programs

Gold? The political manipulations of this reserve have baffled us all. Meltdown of European economices and their inevitable entanglement with Mid-East turmoil may be force their CBs to liquidate Gold reserves to bail out their social programs and their defense. This will result in the POG dropping precipitously unless adequate bidders keep it up. Who will buy their Gold during such economic & military turbulence and sell them what they will need to economically & militarily survive?
One scenario could have Japan buying their Gold with US treasuries and Europe in turn using the dollars to buy what they need from the ever-resilient and productive US economy - EXCEPT that the US economy will also be in a shambles due to Y2K and a collapse of our bubble. In such a scenario US dollars may be worth little compared to Gold because the economy backing them would be in trouble. Yes the POG may reach five digits in US$ but a loaf of bread would cost US$100. That same loaf may be bought with less Gold then than today - due to deflation/depression.
Except...
What nation/economy could be the white Knight. With the rest of the world also be in bad shape there may not be adequate strong bidders to keep the price of Gold up. This may be where the Islamic nations ride to the rescue. They will kindly supply desperately needed oil at exhorbitant prices ( ounces of Gold per 1000 barrels ) . Many distressed national economies will be literally over a barrel.
This puts more support under ANOTHER's statement that:
'gold as a currency' will be backed by oil,
and his statement regarding Middle-East Gold purchases:
The answer is they don't buy the paper gold with cash!
The Bullion Banks take oil reserves as collateral for it.

Further into the future ( if civilization as we know it gets that far )
the massive Gold holdings accumulated by oil producers may be their hope of maintaining their economies after their oil reserves are depleted.
Gold will then buy them food and other products. If they find few who want to buy their Gold ( because of cybermoney, etc. ) the price of Gold may sink to historic lows. Their day in the sun will be over. Depending on how much oil is in the ground, that may be quite some time from now - far enough out to satisfy most long range planners in most cultures.

The only way out of our being extorted by oil producers for Gold will be:
1 ) development of fusion ( cold or hot ) or other energy supplies, or
2 ) an economic & demographic collapse that sinks us to pre-oil economies.

Hmmmm - I must come back to this train of thought.
Fellow Kitcoites - please pick it apart. I don't think it is done yet.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:46
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Damnation. HAD to get one more in on the evening....
IF the confidence in the dollar is badly shaken, OR those holders of US debt paper MUST dump because of their own internal problems, then the dollar goes into the dumpster. Holders of PYHSICAL metals at that point will definitely be ahead of the game; They will have maintained a good semblance of purchasing power. Being that most/all countries hold dollar reserves, and would be dumping them at some point along that scenario, the dollar would get pounded very very badly! Like pounding a nail into the ground with a ten pound sledge; Quick and easily! Might actually make S.E. Asia look like a pleasant summer day/a walk in the park.

NOW, goodnight.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:46
blooper (Aurator) ID#207145:: Just kidding. Brit cars are fine.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:45
clktech__A (ta aurator) ID#338111:: Would a Kilobar suffice? ;- )

Thanks

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:43
blooper (SWPI) ID#207145:: I would hug that bottom, if it would leave. Pullleeeaas

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:42
blooper (Aurator,) ID#207145:: Never liked the quality of the lights or the cars they were in.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:40
blooper (Soros killing another country) ID#207145:: Hong Kong--212 Who died and made him Godzilla?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:39
SWP1 (@Blooper) ID#233199:: Great! Here we are hugging a Bear's bottom!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:36
aurator () ID#257148:: blooper

But what about Lucas numbers? Do ya know them

stunned_in_the_headlights___ؗ�___

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:34
blooper (SWPI) ID#207145:: I think we may be near the bottom of this bear.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:33
aurator (7 step plan to riches.....) ID#257148:: clktech_
To change your handle:
1. click on The Mountie Banner above.
2. order an even number of mounties from Bart
3. send half the mounties to mois
4. keep half the mounties yourself
5. email Bart for request to change your handle bkitner@kitco.com
6. wait one week
7. like a butterfly emerging from a crysalis you will be transmogrified.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:32
blooper (Autator) ID#207145:: I remember the Lucasflamethrowers.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:28
blooper (This rally) ID#207145:: ain't tradeable for me. The next one at 8300 will be.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:26
aurator () ID#257148:: newtron
kind of you to pass on the felicitations of 2� and Hum, would you be good enough to return the compliment? They are right, I should peer into avid again, they have all been rather kind. 2� posts here as aurophile, that boy knows his fibo stuff, and I wish we could encourage Humble1 to post here. That fella is reputed to use no more than an old HP2C, some graph paper and an abacus he bought in Old Shanghai to spin some of the most wonderful TIMING signals I've seen. Lucas does not just make spotlights, eh?

But I am rather intrigued what Hum's take is in the next 3 weeks, just as I am intrigued by this cluster of eclipses, although I have statistically refuted a correlation between eclipses and crashes...

Got Numbers?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:25
SWP1 ( You know it's a BEAR when..) ID#233199:: Sopt gold down $0.40 is a rally!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:25
Snowball (Thanks to all!) ID#234218:: Tonight was enlightening. I appreciate the responses. Off to dream about my Yen for gold.

Happy prospecting,

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:25
blooper (Cheese Head) ID#207145:: God knows the dollar count, but he ain't tellin. I asked already.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:24
SWP1 (RE: Weaker Dollar and EURO) ID#233199:: Can anybody tell me if EURO bonds area available now?

swp1

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:23
blooper (I plan to accumulate) ID#207145:: Only caveat is these crashes we get. But gold has held up OK.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:20
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Achtung! 'Nuff fun for the evening....

onmywaytobedtowatchamovieonthebacksideofmyeyelids

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:19
blooper (Gold is close to rising guys) ID#207145:: Japan is hated, because when they improve, WE GO DOWN. But Gold goes up.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:19
aurator (she'll be right) ID#257148:: Fred

Huh? Wah?

Transpower admitting a Y2K glitch in your last URL?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4332306.htm

not seen this report down here, I think thestralian.com has, ahhemm, got its wires crossed? Although I do suspect we're in deep zoo do, and will lead the world into The Long Night A January of candles, barbecues, freedom from TV and WWW. A january of no ATMs, no banks, no tricity, no worries...

The Good Life? GreenAcres? What is your distopian vision? Will the stralians pick up arms and shoot their neighbours over a ham sandwich?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:19
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Who really cares about the value of the dollar?) ID#431263:: I don't think it matters a tinker's damn how many dollars AG creates, cause no one knows how many dollars are floating around the world anyway!
As long as the CB's and people of the world PERCEIVE these dollars as a worthy store of value and means of exchange they will hoard them. When that perception is changed for some reason ( BC impeachment, stock market crash, loss of reserve currency status, etc. ) they will DUMP THEM!

So the bottom line is not VALUE, so much as PERCEPTION OF VALUE! As long as AG and RR can keep the people of the world believing that the dollar IS a worthy store of value and means of exchange compared to any other, including gold, even if it ISN'T, this sickening ruse will continue. On the other hand, the day the people of the world begin to perceive that the dollar is OVERVALUED, or NOT a stable store of wealth, IT WILL BE DUMPED for something that IS PERCEIVED to be a STABLE STORE OF VALUE! Whatever that something is, it will, of necessity, have a close connection to gold.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:18
newtron (aruator) ID#335184:: I bring you greetings & tidings of great affection from Two Cents & Humble 1 from AVID !
They wish to convey their regards & wish your speedy return to their forum !
I told them they didn't have to be just voyer lurks on Kitco !
I get the impression that @ C is one of those stuff shirts who can't play here, but sure drops in from time to time for a nature tap to reality !

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:16
blooper (Mark Mobius) ID#207145:: Japan is on right track. Consensus has been built. Good things will happen.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:13
clktech__A (How do you change your handle?) ID#338111:: I was dumb and used my email login :- (

Corey

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:12
blooper (clktech) ID#207145:: You're very welcome. Good luck.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:11
newtron (Snow) ID#335184:: Thanks for your post by Armstrong !
It was the inspiration for my Massive Bull ( read missive, not ditritus of 01:34 ) & thanks for your encouragement. My nick name is tar baby because I can't stand it when folks don't react or talk back to something I've said !

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:11
blooper (clkteck) ID#207145:: A weak dollar is manna from heaven--to the yellow metal. Si.Affifmative.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:11
clktech__A (Thanks bloop) ID#338111:: It's a good way to think of it as scared money
Cheers

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:10
aurator (One hundred years ain't as long as it used to be) ID#257148:: La tete du fromage
Downunder, we too have noticed that the once in a hundred year floods/droughts/hurricanes/etc seem to occur more frequently these days, like twice in a couple of years. Either the stats are flawed ( most likely ) or we got more FLUX than we used to.

Thouroughly modern aurator

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:07
blooper (newtron) ID#207145:: That was a beautiful post, as I just bought Newmont.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:04
newtron (Erle, not earl !) ID#335184:: Thanks for pointing out my glitch !
Kaplan is reporting Commercials 2/1 long on YEN & Specs short 13/1.

My point is that Kaplan has got to be saying this is very bullish for YEN & there for GO GO for GOLD !
Thanks

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:03
blooper (clktech) ID#207145:: It just means everybody is in short term bonds. Scared money.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:02
Snowball (@ Newtron) ID#234218:: Thanks, now I see where he was going with it. Just like a seesaw with Yen on one side and gold on the other and Yen peaking at 150 or so. The COTs are saying long on both at about that point. The dollar drops, hence the dumping of T-bonds. Which should further fuel PMs. So when buffet dumped his bonds, chance he bought Yen, more silver

Helps clear some cobwebs, Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 02:00
blooper (Golden C) ID#207145:: Your damn straight. Dollars will be king. Sell your gold at a high price when you can. That's what it's all about.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:59
clktech__A (ta Blooper) ID#338111:: Understand that bond yield down implies lower rates, implies weaker dollar. ( People selling bonds presumably ) This what you mean by 'inverted yield curve'. A weaker dollar is presumably good for gold?

Greenspan put up rates? It's probably what he should do. But he'd make a lot of people very unhappy.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:58
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: ERLE -- I've always found it totally amazing how long the commercials can be on one side of the market and the specs on the other before the move actually happens in the market. I wouldn't use that as a timely indicator to wipe my a__!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:57
sam__A (@ RJ re Feynman books) ID#286253:: If you liked Surely you're joking pick up his best known biography:To the beat of a different drum. A little more serious, a little more science. Good read.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0198518870/qid=902469686/sr=1-2/002-3134092-4679017

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:57
blooper (newtron) ID#207145:: I second Erle. Are your facts straight on the Yen?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:55
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (ELDO-) ID#431263:: I believe it will be the Euro which accomplishes this. But as far as buying gold during a period of civil upheaval or depression--ain't gonna' happen. Gotta' have gold BEFORE you go into such a period, because as you so correctly point out, when cash becomes trash and currency becomes scarce, no one will be able to buy--'cept those who have a universally accepted store of value like gold!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:53
ERLE (newtron) ID#190411:: look again and tell me if I misread you.
kaplan is saying that commercials are long 2;1 and specs are 13/1 short.
He's saying go long Yen.

You don't seem too obedient to me, Mr. Tar Baby.
I do like your posts.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:52
newtron (Bloop) ID#335184:: The stock market topped in March/ April. Don't confuse the DOW with the market.
The 1st Q of a string of negative GDP actually began with the end of the 2nd Q, the USG just hasn't admitted yet that the 2nd Q was negative so Bill Slick could claim & exclaim the other day from the Rose Garden, I saved the economy STUPID ! &, oh by the way Ken Starr has me treed for Aug 17th & Don't impeach my crooked Peener !
The coming crash in the S&P/DOW will confirm the slide that began in 1st Q.

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:52
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Blooper -- Even leaving rates as they are, much less raising them is putting the nail wholely into the coffin lid! But they could do it to continue the current scenarios happening around the world.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:51
blooper (Dollar down, Yen up) ID#207145:: This is the future. When? Who the hell knows.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:49
Fred (Joe Six Pack) ID#341234:: My ex-boss called me tonight asking what he should do with his retirement fund. The market is starting to scare him, and he does not want to take any more big losses. He is a perfect example of Joe Six Pack. He was 100% stocks and has decided to go 50% stock, 50% bonds. One problem. His lame 401k will not allow him to transfer until the end of the quarter.

I think there are a lot of Joe Six Packs out there who are at least thinking about dumping some stocks. If they could only be convinced to buy some gold...

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:49
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: mozel -- Good to see you about! Your take on continuing competitive devaluations, outlook on POG, outlook on stox, etc. You seem to have a good handle on 'how things work'. Would appreciate your views. Thanks.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:48
blooper (clkteck) ID#207145:: Pressure to drop rates means a lower dollar. Bonds are great indicators.
They say Greenspan is lying about tightening maybe.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:43
blooper (cekcetk) ID#207145:: Our 10 year bond yields less than the Fed. Funds rate. That is an inverted yield curve. There is some pressure to drop intrest rates. Not a lot right now.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:42
newtron (Snow ball re Kaplan & addendum to Neutron Bomb) ID#335184:: WB/ Berkshire have sold their zeros, but retain their silver. The commercial COT's for the YEN are at an astronomical & all time long ( @ 13 /1 ) along with a multi year short in the Long Bond !
Kaplan is a guru, but he has missed his call on YEN. 150 tops & then look out below !

Y.O.S.,

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:41
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Golden Cheesehead -- Playing the 'devils advocate' I'd say it requires people WITH money to buy it. In a deflationary environment, people pay MORE on their past purchases; RE: debt. IF people even knew they were in a deflationary environment, they wouldn't be taking on ANY new loans since they would be paying it back with more 'expensive' money. WHY buy a commodity if you also knew it would be cheaper tomorrow? The reason the price of gold went up in the Asian nations was because THEIR currency is not THE reserve currency that trade revolves around. Their currencies became the first victims of the CONfidence game. SURE, that will more than likely happen here too, but a replacement must first come into being for our 'reserve currency' to be played against. Can/will it be a 'golden' currency, or more likely someone elses CONfidence game? Who's going to take up the 'fallen flag'?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:39
blooper (neutron) ID#207145:: The stock market turns down before the economy. It is called discounting of the future. So the recession would start 2nd quarter of 99.So far as commodities are concerned, we would be starting off very low compared to 73.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:36
clktech__A (blooper) ID#338111:: May I humbly ask what inverted yield curve means? What is the reasoning behind it forcing US dollar down?

Many thanks,

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:34
blooper (El Dorado) ID#207145:: At the end of this one you will be a slave to the one world government.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:34
newtron (Neutron Bomb ! APB ! SOS ! NOW HEAR THIS ! CALLING ALL CARS !) ID#335184:: JTF & All,
This is not 87, but a replay of April 73 to Dec. 74, except at that time Americans could not own Au & this time the S&P crash will be steeper. Stagflation will be the order of the day as a text book recession begins in 3rd Q after 2nd Q is adjusted or rather correctly assessed. The Gold bull market took off at this time. Let's apply our collective genius to analyzing this period to prepare ourselves for this BEAR.
Any thoughts how Gold Equities fared during this period ?

I was early into AU equities in April in erroneous anticipation that Gold Stocks wuold enjoy the run up to S&P blowoff a la 87. Wrong ! Au stocks have lost a nifty 30 to 40 % since then. Ofcourse you know that Au stocks have been caught in the deflationary under tow of as THE leading indicator & IMHIPO, it is sitting on the launching pad of stagflation fueled to the gills with the Dow Theory Sell signal, an inverted yield curve & the fact that 3rd Q negative GDP & pathetic corp prfits will signal a recession while the exploding Trade deficit in the 3rd Q will signal the death of the USD bull !
Believe me what ever year this is on the dejavuoodoo meter,
it ai't 1987 !
I do not share your opinion that Au stocks have not yet decoupled from the general market. We have been in a counter secular Bear market since 1982 which is ending now.

Rock Steady !

Y.O.S.

TAR BABY

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:33
ERLE (Rj+feynmann) ID#190411:: Part of my keyboard will not support caps, so, sorry about the Rj.
feynmann was a brilliant man, but the o-ring thingy is a tale.
I do recall when he dipped the cursed o-ring in the ice water to demonstrate the loss of elasticity. The ring in question is a fluorosilicone. Replace the hydrogen in a rubber with fluorine and you get an elastomer such as Viton.
substitute silicon for carbon and fluorine for hydrogen, and you get an expensive elastomer that can cope with wide temperature variations. Modern aircraft cannot operate without them. They fly at temperatures far lower than ice water.
The more interesting answer to the shuttle problem was the substitution of the original packing material, asbestos, with an inferior replacement.
The packing was there to protect the seal. The EPA had their hands all over this one.
What ever.
see TPher's URl at 00;13 for kaplan's site. He has been accurate as I told you earlier.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:33
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HARD COPY TONIGHT) ID#431263:: Has a frightening segment on the coming political insurrection! If you get to see it--by all means do!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:33
Snowball (? Kaplan Upgrade ) ID#234218:: Since POG is rising and falling with the Yen, and Kaplan is so emphatic about the Yen going to 150, 160 maybe 200, why would he upgrade his gold forecast? Dang, the more I think I learn the dumber I know I am. I should bought a chicken farm.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:31
Paul Gold__A (DROOY's Argonaut project) ID#21484:: Durban Roodepoort Deep is considering options to fund its Argonaut project - detail at http://www.drd.co.za/. Argonaut is a project to exploit Durban Deep's right to a 40 million ounce gold deposit below the city of Johannesburg.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:31
blooper (Golden C) ID#207145:: Bull manure. Give me inflation any day.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:31
blooper (Golden C) ID#207145:: Bull manure. Give me inflation any day.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:30
mozel (@Credit Control @Lawful Gold) ID#153102:: The redefinition of bank accounts into transcational and non-transactional aspects of the digital virtual reality that passes for money these days appears a precursor to a greater refinement of credit control. Confirmation postings on this topic would be a great service to us all. Of course, the power to do this has been dormant in the Credit Control Act of circa 1980.

Lawful gold cannot be made illegal in America and I don't think it ever was. FDR collected bank gold - bullion. Federal agents who stole gold from bank safety deposit boxes did so under color of law. Not as officers of government. Bullion was not gold money per se and is not today. Gold money is gold coin. When you back your paper with gold, when the government takes the backing it can deny taking money. Especially so if it gives you emergency currency under license in return. Which basically sums up the FDR Legal Bank Holiday Robbery.

Always read the fine print in legal documents and in legal history. A gold certificate is not a gold coin.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:29
blooper (Triple bottom on the XAU) ID#207145:: That says, BUY ME. I trust long term support and rising inflation. Too many dollars out there.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:28
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Would be nice--) ID#431263:: but GOLD doesn't need inflation to soar--a currency devaluation or crisis of confidence in the govt., political upheaval, social insurrection, terrorist activity or failure of the power grid, savings accounts, annuity payments, social security etc, due to Y2K--create enough uncertainty, incivility and fear and GOLD WILL SOAR even without inflation!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:25
blooper (Eldorado) ID#207145:: We have an inverted yield curve. That says dollar down.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:24
blooper (The Powers that Be) ID#207145:: Have no intrest in seeing gold drop below 16 year lows. It would say Deflation loud and clear.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:21
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: RJ -- It is not how high or low gold can go. It is how high or low the currency can go.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:21
blooper (RJ) ID#207145:: No one believes inflation can reappear. Donald ratajczak at Georgia State doesthe best inflation and growth performance in this cycle is over, but enough good remains to ensure continued expansion for the next 12 to 18 months. Inflation will inch up. So will gold.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:21
dirt (What are they thinking ?) ID#268404:: Don't these countries understand economics ? When your currency is losing its value relative to another currency, you don't sell your REAL reserve currency and buy inflated currencies......sell the inflated currencies and buy REAL currency ( GOLD )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:20
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: RJ -- $30,000 gold; Relatively speaking, one could find that having happened in Russia. But, an oz STILL only buys a decent suit, or thereabouts! Sure takes a whale ( SP? ) of a bunch of rubles though!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:18
Snowball (@ James re: 23:43) ID#234218:: Thanks for the reply. It's curious that KGC is making mergers, new aquisitions, looking for properties in Austrailia, unhedgeing their positions, and now talking buy backs. It seems they either know something, their the world's biggest gamblers, or they are practicing the Davy Crockett bear huntin' theory. You know make as much noise as you can then run at 'em screamin'. If your lucky, you'll scare them off. Guess time holds all answers.

Thanks

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:15
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Signs of deflation can be summed up as too few dollars chasing the goods, with bills and payments still being fixed. People and business' are likely to go broke chasing the fewer bucks available and still trying to make their payments. Something has to give. Sometimes it is chapter 11. Sometimes it is simply walking away. Bottom line is that debt is 'swallowed' by the debt holders. Lewinski will have nothing on the debt holders in this regard. Another bottom line is that towards the end of this, those WITH money can pick up assets at forclosure prices or less!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:13
RJ (..... PH .....) ID#411259:: I did not play the softball, not worth the ripping of tendons and scraping of flesh that is often accompanied by these macho matches. No this was the championship game twixt the Monex team and some other schmoes, I was there to witness the event. The schmoes won, in the last inning, with 2 outs, by 1 run. This was a disappointment to some, but I find it hard to really build up to much passion about a softball game.

Besides, I�m more of a hardball type.

Re: 30K gold, I would like to get back to the discussion of how high can gold go, or how low and economy can sink before comparisons of gold to any currency is useless. Further I would like to address whether any arbitrary POG would buy the same as it would in almost any other time - in term of goods and services, not currency. This is an important discussion which cuts to the core of the whole gold thingie in the first place.

But I�m tired, and tomorrow I need to be in the office B4 the open, so as you had the last word before, I offer you the first word now. I�ll respond tomorrow or Saturday.

OK

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:12
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Speaking of crisis--) ID#431263:: SE Wisconsin this evening just got dumped on with anywhere from 5-12 inches of rain during the last 8 hours! Basements are flooded all over the area and some even had their basement walls washed away and watched their homes collapse around 'em! The damage will total into the tens of millions! Hope they purchased FEMA flood insurance, but many believed that last year's floods were a 100-yr. event and didn't buy any thinking that they would never face another such disaster in their lifetimes. Guess what? The very next year they DID! Anecdotal evidence of what human nature is like and why people will stay fully invested in the stock market EVEN IF we have a market debacle? STUBBORN MAN, STUBBORN!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:06
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Golden Cheesehead -- Well, they took away their typical farm subsidies. Now they'll have to put at least some of them back. can't ween them off in a year! I expect there WILL BE a LOT of 'gone broke' farmers out there in the mean time.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 01:00
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (ELDORADO--) ID#431263:: We haven't heard much about this because of all the scandal in DC, but there is a very serious agricultural crisis in this country that the Democrats are gonna' have to address very soon if they intend to win the farm belt this fall--but with BC grabbin' all the headlines, it appears that the farm crisis ( and also the mining crisis ) has been placed on the back burner for a while. Farm Belt Senators and Congressmen are being pressured to do something to help farmers out NOW! And, of course, they will!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:59
Envy (Asia) ID#219363:: Red all over the place.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:53
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Golden Cheesehead -- Perhaps. Worst things have been known to happen. But what that scenario entails is that the Asian tsunami is working its 'majic' here; I.E. come ashore! DO NOT discount the possibility! Also means that the Fed ain't loosening, or loosening enough fast enough.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:51
RJ (..... Book Recommendation .....) ID#411259:: I just finished reading a book that I think most who post here would enjoy. It is called, Surely You�re Joking, Mr. Feynman by Richard Feynman, the noted Nobel Laureate in physics and significant contributor to the understanding of quantum theory with his famous Feynman Diagrams describing the sum over histories in which an accelerated particle travels all possible paths and only chooses a particular history when observed. ( now THAT was a long sentence ) . He was also an outrageous character, but in a very lovable way.

Now for the best part - for those of you who could care less about physics - there ain�t no physics in it! It is rather a autobiography of one of the most colorful, offbeat, and interesting characters this country has ever produced. From safe-cracking to strip joints to bongos to art to Los Alamos and Oppenheimer, this guy has lived a life I truly envy.

When the space shuttle Challenger exploded, it was Dick Feynman who cut through all the crap and focused on the O rings. This is quintessential Feynman, who never trusted an equation he did work out himself.

He liked the money that came with the Nobel Prize, it allowed him to buy a beach house, but he wishes he never won it. This a truly unassuming man, always honest, and never pompous. He felt the Prize made it impossible to be taken seriously in the future. All people see is the Laureate, and now overlook the person. He felt it leant his opinions too much weight because he can be wrong sometimes, just like everybody else.

The book is very funny and very personal, written as all Feynman�s books and lectures are written - by dictation, he speaks his stream of consciousness and others type, so the tone is conversational and very friendly. So, no worries, not an equation to be found, and nary a Feynman Diagram. This is a story of a man, and one of the best books I have read in years.

Yes

PS
The safecracking scams he did at Los Alamos while they were building the Bomb are worth the price of the book, which is $13.95 US. ISBN 0-393-31604-1 published by Norton. Every bookstore should have it, if not, it is a simple order. First published in 1985, printing began again in 1997. It is a very popular book. Anyway, you know a book is good if it keeps you thinking after you have put it down.

This does that

For a long time

OK

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:50
Fred (Power Company Testing) ID#341234:: Without testing, power companies cannot know if they are compliant.� Only 2 tests so far.� Results:�
Power grid in New Zealand -- Failed
Power station in Britain -- Failed

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/extras/007/4332306.htm

... the electricity industry has been reluctant to test for the problem.

... if the grid goes down for more than four or five hours because of the bug, then the power could, potentially, be off for at least several weeks until the problem is fixed.

The interconnectedness of the system means that a fault � just a few faults � could be enough to bring down the SCADA and, with it, the grid.

... some utilities do not appear to be adequately addressing the year 2000 issue.

Transpower is still determining what went wrong even though outside consultants had given that grid system the all-clear as being year 2000 compliant before it was tested.

He says he knows of only one power station that has been tested for millennium bug compliance by winding the date forward to year 2000. That was in Britain and the power station failed.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:49
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR ELDORADO--) ID#431263:: Since grains make up a large percentage of the CRB, and since the farmers I know around here in Wisconsin can't make a living with corn under $2.00/bushel and beans near $5.00/bushel, I believe that most farmers will simply quit producing and grain prices as a result will rise. They will put their land into the govt. set-aside program and collect gov.t subsidies rather than keep producing grain at a loss. Hence I fail to see how the CRB could plummet as low as 150! 185 perhaps, but any lower and farmers will simply pack it in and go play golf at govt. expense! We're very near a bottom in the CRB IMO.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:42
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: James -- I personally do not anymore find your posted scenario out of 'order'! Strange things happen. Deflation happens and sends ALL commodities down. Extreme competitive devaluations could easily do this to gold, as much as I would hate to see it happen. This is why we now see the CRB index near 200. Will we see it at 150 or lower? Gotta watch how THEY play the cards!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:42
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (For africanminer--) ID#431263:: Please post your e-mail address so I can speak to you privately. Danke.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:39
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (I ENVY YOU!) ID#431263:: Heh..heh..heh!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:38
Envy (@Golden CheeseHead) ID#219363:: You're right, that Asian chart looked a whole lot better a while ago ( when I was dreaming of oriental babes ) .

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:35
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Envy -- Good policy! Now, if one is an adept day trader.....

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:33
James (POG $196@I noticed many posters laughing about the possibility) ID#252150:: I guess I've lost my sense of humor, because I'm not laughing.

In late 96, when I was following BGO/AZS on SI a poster by the name of Ole49r posted that she felt the POG could go below 300 & possibly to 250.
I found out later that she is a broker in Portland + an actual placer au miner & has her own web page. Needless to say her posts were received with much ridicule & derision. When I asked her who would be selling @ 250, she answered the CBs, James. Thanks in large part to her I got out of all au stocks with sizeable gains at that time.

My own doomsday scenario has the Euro CBs being forced to sell off their au reserves in order to keep their social programs in place in the face of massive unemployment, which could result in riots in the streets. Much the same way that the aristocracy was forced to sell their family jewels & silver in order to keep up appearances.

I hope I'm totally wrong & POG goes back to 400, but I'm not dicounting the 196 possibility.

I must see if I can get in touch with Ole49r & see what her views are these days.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:33
Envy (Eldorado) ID#219363:: Which is EXACTLY why I'm not doing anything with it *grin*, because I don't know enough to keep from getting burned.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:31
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (Don't want to wake up Ben so I'll whisper really quietly--) ID#431263:: HANG SENG DOWN @ 200 PTS. AND ON THE VERGE OF CRASHING THROUGH 7,000!!!!!
Heh...heh...heh...!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:31
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: Envy -- Why would you think that the dollar would fall before the European currencies, being that the US dollar IS the worlds reserve currency at this time?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:28
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: SAM_A -- Clarification; Cash in the 'reserve currency' is king temporaily.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:26
6pak () ID#335190:: August 6, 1998

Government says it can't remove crosses outside Auschwitz

WARSAW ( AP ) -- Responding to a plea from Israel, the Polish government said Thursday it doesn't have the authority to remove dozens of crosses erected outside the Auschwitz death camp by Roman Catholic faithful.

More than 50 crosses have been put up over the last two weeks at the urging of a conservative Catholic radio station to protest efforts to remove a much larger, eight-metre cross that has stood just yards from the camp's wall since 1988.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Auschwitz-Crosses.html

August 6, 1998

U.S. Congress passes legislation to open up Nazi files

WASHINGTON ( AP ) -- Thousands of classified U.S. files on Nazi war crimes and criminals would be unsealed under legislation completed by Congress on Thursday and sent to the White House for the president's signature.

The Nazi War Crimes Disclosure Act would make it much easier for historians, researchers and the public to view the documents dating to the Cold War years that followed the Second World War. Several federal agencies, including the CIA, the U.S. State Department and the Department of Defence, previously refused to declassify the documents, citing national security.

Some of the information might prove embarrassing for the United States, said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who sponsored the bill in the House, which passed it Thursday by unanimous voice vote. But there are important lessons to be learned from some of those documents.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Nazi-Files.html

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:25
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: SAM_A -- Selling gold is what one does in a deflationary environment. That amongst selling anything else available. Cash is king temporarily.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:25
Envy (@TPher) ID#219363:: Check out Allen's 14:09 06 Aug 98.

In that post Allen set out to justify why he thought the Dmark was a good buy ( because of the EURO ) as well as the Yen. Made good sense to me. Said to buy calls instead of actually purchasing the currency. With such a high dollar, it seems intuitive to me that you could make money off the potential. Seems that Gold might rise at about the same time, however. I wish I knew more about it.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:24
Mtn Bear (SE) (More Sell Signals) ID#347267:: The mutual fund holders better be gittin antsy!! Charlie Hooper Goes To URSA: THIS SURE FITS WITH FAVORS et al.
Mutual Fund Strategist unscheduled hotline, Thursday, August 6.
Our timing model for U.S. Growth funds, MIRAT, has generated a sell
short signal to a bear market fund for those who wish to play the short
side of the market. Tomorrow, we will switch the 100% money market
fund position in our MIRAT-Rydex Growth Portfolio into Rydex Ursa fund.
Based on the significant deterioration in market breadth, the
odds favor the market moving lower after the current upward bounce, which
we believe is a counter-trend rally, is complete.

The current status of our timing models is as follows:

U.S. Growth funds - Sell short
U.S. Bond funds - Buy
U.S. High Yield Bond funds - Sell per Tuesday's hotline
International Growth funds - Sell per Monday's hotline
International Bond funds - Buy but very close to a sell signal
Precious Metals funds - Sell
Asian funds - Sell
European funds - Sell per Monday's hotline
Latin American funds - Sell per Tuesday's hotline
Im beaming up too.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:23
sam__A (@ RJ, APH - Glad you're on my side of the floor when it comes to silver) ID#286253:: Rather trade with you than against you. sam__A.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:22
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: RJ -- Curses perhaps, but one IS able to look past the minor to the major. If not, then the individual has a problem me thinks. I liken typos ( for the most part ) to what happens on a keyboard, not necessarily what happens on the mind.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:17
clktech__A (@Envy) ID#338111:: Poor Malaysia.

No shortage of Japanese weddings in Australia. They are quite the thing at the moment. Same car every time! ( Work next door to a church in the city ) I hope that it doesn't become our last viable export.

I really want to see what Japan is going to do. No major investments until I know they won't do a kamakaze.

All ords down 11 points.

Cheers

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:15
wombat (If only it was still true) ID#23941:: Abstract from Warren Buffets 1979 report to shareholders.

One friendly but sharp-eyed commentator on Berkshire has pointed out that our book value at the end of 1964 would have bought about one-half ounce of gold and, fifteen years later, after we have plowed back all earnings along with much blood, sweat and tears, the book value produced will buy about the same half ounce. A similar comparison could be drawn with Middle Eastern oil. The rub has been that government has been exceptionally able in printing money and creating promises, but is unable to print gold or create oil.

Does that mean gold should be worth $70,000 ( I wish )

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:15
sam__A (@ MoReGold re Canada dumping more gold) ID#286253:: The currency is going down the gutter and they're selling gold. Amazing!

sam__a.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:15
RJ (..... Edlo .....) ID#411259:: Typos are as losses
All here have experienced these
Easy to read past a mispelled word
Were it not for the spel cheker
I would be lost in the forest
I never could proofread
What I myself wrote
I know what I am writing, I wrote it
And if the words on the page don't agree
With what I know I wrote
My devious left brain
Sees them there anyway
It is a curse

It is

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:13
TPher (Steven Kaplan back from vacation) ID#372235:: Current outlook has been upgraded to EXTREMELY BULLISH.

Also, commercials are now LONG Japanese yen by greater that 2 to 1 margin.

http://www.investor1.com/gmo/

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:08
Envy (Asia) ID#219363:: Looks mixed. Some up slightly, more down, some 1-4 percent.

Poor Malaysia. It always seems to be down 3 percent.

I guess I won't get to see that Malaysian airline commercial on television for a while. That young lady, the one dressed up in asian garb with the pretty smile dancing in a circle with flowing silk.

Speaking of which, since that tourist shooting thing, I haven't seen an Egypt-air commercial either.

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:07
Eldorado (@ the scene) ID#226299:: RJ -- Any thoughts on continuing competitive devaluations happening out there?

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:05
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: And again, HAR! RJ, you're a riot!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:05
RJ (..... Eldo .....) ID#411259:: It was the damn Righty O
What done me in
You won fair and square
HAR! acknowledged

Sigh

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:02
RJ (..... Who wants to be last? .....) ID#411259:: Isn't first better?
I think it is
Indeedy I do

Cheep

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:01
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: OK! Now it can ONLY get better from here!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:01
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:: HAR!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:00
RJ (..... Read Last .....) ID#411259:: As bottom

Date: Fri Aug 07 1998 00:00
RJ (..... Yep .....) ID#411259:: I got the top

Righty O

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