- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:57
MJPL (EURO: Champion or Chump) ID#153111:
Copyright © 1998 MJPL/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I keep hearing about the EURO but IMHO I think the EURO is not going to be a strong currency for long. In the battle for world reserve currency status I see the EURO not as a true challenger but as a spoiler to the US$ crown.
The reason I say this is that all of the European Nations that are going to be using the EURO are socialist in nature. As bad as it is here in the US it is in Europe that the Progressives have accomplished the most toward womb to tomb social services. The ECB may be independent at first but when the different national government start feeling the heat from the trade unions ( who have been sold on the EURO by what it is going to do for them not to them ) and other Progressive elements that breed in a fiat currency environment, I don't think the ECB will keep its course. Weeks of rioting in the street will tend to focus the minds of the authorities.
The Mother Earth is torching the good faith and credit of all her national governments, the EURO will comply when the time comes. This is due not to the wishes of Evil Leaders, but the wishes of the people who vote them in. And the people in Europe have voted in candidates into office to trash money before, the EURO will go down to, just when I don't know. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:51
Steve in TO__A (Squirrel - the Internet has a few major arteries . . .) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - that could isolate whole continents if they were cut. There are some satellite links that are very important to NA & European traffic, especially transatlantic, and there are a few fibre optic cables that carry almost all the traffic from South America and places east.
For example, our Aussie & Kiwi friends communicate with this site through a cable that runs between Queensland & Los Angeles. ANZA was cut off for a few hours a couple of years ago when some geek launched a worm that overloaded the Aussie network and crashed a bunch of their nodes. More and more redundancy is coming on-line, so that crashes and cable failures and whatever just slow things down rather that cause a complete blackout, but if some fascist government decides to cut off the internet, and doesn't care about the economic consequences of doing so, it can certainly do it.
Just look at the Chinese. It took the bureaucrats a few years to wake up to what the internet was doing, but they now control it with an iron fist, and the fact that every packet can be tracked back to its original machine means that once you send a message the gov't doesn't like, they know where to find you- unless you use a laptop at a payphone, but only serious hackers will put up with the discomfort of doing that!
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:50
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Buddhist monk collects millions for Thai bailout
BANGKOK, July 6 ( Reuters ) - A Buddhist monk will visit the Bank of Thailand on Monday to hand over $1.8 million in donations from worshippers to help rescue the ailing Thai economy, officials said.
Phra Maha Bua Yanasampanno has collected 182.5 kg ( 403 lb ) of gold ornaments, 12 million baht ( $293,000 ) and $1.8 million in cash since he began asking his followers for money for the government on April 12.
On Sunday, thousands of people thronged his temple on the outskirts of Bangkok to hand in their valuables and jewellery.
This is the first lot of U.S. dollars to be given to the central bank to add to the government's reserve fund, said Colonel Therdsak Chaiyasith, a member of the Help the Country Project.
The committee will hand over the rest of the cash and gold at a later date. It aims to raise at least one tonne of gold.
The gold will be handed over to the central bank when the amount is big enough, Therdsak said.
Thailand has collapsed into recession since the devaluation of its currency, the baht, on July 2 last year and faces a foreign debt crisis.
The government has embarked on a radical reform of its financial and legal system to try to resolve the crisis and has accepted a $17.2 billion bailout fund led by the International Monetary Fund.
But the corporate sector is saddled with around $55 billion in foreign debt and government borrowings are estimated at up to another $30 billion.
The Thai army has had a similar campaign this year. It collected 150 kg ( 330 lb ) of gold in March, many in the form of medals and ornaments.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:39
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR SQUIRREL-) ID#431263: - Not to worry, mein Herr! Gold will ALWAYS rise FASTER than groceries in a true currency panic! Because then it will be recognized for what it really is, M-O-N-E-Y!
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:36
Suspicious (Re: Golden Cheesehead !) ID#285121: - It is my opinion that third quarter profits will take the market and the dollar to it's knees and the euro will deliver the death blow next year.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:36
6pak (FWIW @ FASCIST & PRESIDENT ROOSEVELT) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - On April 29 1938 the President told Congress
The statistical history of modern times proves that in times of depression concentration of business speeds up. Bigger business then has larger opportunities to grow still bigger at the expense of smaller competitors who are weakened by financial adversity.
American business might be forced to turn to some form of disguised Fascistic dictatorship, announced H. W. Prentiss, former president of the National Association of Manufacturers.
President Roosevelt took note of it by declaring that the liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism...
The people of the world were on the move and monopoly the world over was afraid. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was sworn in. Adolf Hitler came to power in Germany as the representative of German monopoly.
Immediately Hitler disbanded the trade unions, formed a monopoly-dominated government front of labor, moved against every people's organization with the charge that it was a Communist conspiracy.
Within a matter of months thousands of trade unionists, communists, jews, socialists, churchmen, and progressives were either executed or in concentration camps where they lamented the lack of unity that had brought Hitler into power.
During the long preliminary fight against the rise of Hitler, many had believed that German monopoly's attack against the communists would be limited to the communists ( 30,000 German communists had lost their lives in the fight against Hitler and reaction during the 1920's )
Hamstrung and paralyzed by Hitler's red scare, a campaign that went on day after day and year after year, almost every German newspaper filled with spy stories and allegations of communist conspiracies against the state, the German people had been unable to unite while the very Nazi-monopoly forces which had declared that communists were about to seize the country, took the country over themselves.
By a similar device, Mussolini had seized power in Italy in 1922. Now both Hitler and Mussolini, the latter about to assault Ethiopia, were eying democratic Spain, determined that it would be their first joint victim in the Fascist drive to save the world from communism by armed conquest.
Wages in both Italy and Germany plunged to unparalleled lows while speed-up and hours of labor reached new heights as the industries of both countries boomed with the profits of munitions and armaments.
They were necessary, the dictators said, for self defense against the Soviet Union.
1933 -During February, 1933, with Roosevelt elected but Hoover still in the White House, runs on banks, bank failures, and bank closings in state after state had brought the financial system of the country to a virtual standstill. Money was disappearing. Wages could not be paid. Purchases could not be made. Food could not be bought. Checks were not honored. Vast crowds, ruined by the bank closings, clamored, wept, and rioted before silent, vacant savings institutions in every large city, their life savings gone they knew not where.
Banker's, pillars of the community, were everywhere confessing, or being forced to confess by overwhelming facts, that they had lost their depositors' money in buying Wall Street's worthless securities and foreign bonds. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:34
MJPL (SpudMaster: Jam a potato down their wind pipe) ID#153111: - That is a great idea, input dirt and water into marketing computers so they get mud out.
As a matter of course, when I'm asked for a phone number I always give my fax number. At night while I doing something that I want to do and my fax number gets a ring I get a bit of a chuckle out of it. Let those marketers talk to my Fax machine. It is one hell of a firewall to those who just want a moment of my time.
Works good to! I get one to three calls to my fax each night. I might have to talk to those idiots otherwise. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:34
Squirrel (Pardon me guys) ID#287186: - If the dollar tanks and the POG ( as denominated in US$ ) skyrockets -
So what if I can then sell my Gold Maple Leaf for US$1000 when I bought it for US$300. Would not a ton of groceries at that time cost US$4000 and my earlier equivalence of 4 Maple Leafs to the ton still hold?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:33
Steve in TO__A (Grizz - There's another option I forgot to mention . . .) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - to get away from CTR's & Big Brother ( otherwise known as FINCEN. ) Remember that banks are exempt from CTR's. You couldn't start a bank in the US- it's a closed shop, the regulators only let in members of the club. There are offshore jurisdictions, however, that let you start yer own bank! If you have little or no experience, your bank can only deal with its shareholders. If you put out the effort to get some training, you can even open a serious commercial bank.
When you own and operate your very own bank you can do all sorts of nifty things- like wire money via SWIFT- and the gov't won't even blink an eye ( remember, money laundering laws are for the little people : )
How about mortgaging your US assets to your bank- and should some contingency-fee lawyer make a grab for your assets, your bank seizes them! How about your checking account both paying you prime interest instead of some measly 1.2%, and earning income for your own banking corporation. How about a bank that never gives you crummy service and can be guaranteed to write excellent banking references for you. How about a bank that can be counted on to send excellent information about to the credit bureaus. How about having your bank set up its own mutual fund in an offshore juridiction where there is no corporate income tax, and having your bank corporation buy the gold mining shares and physical PM's that you would have paid tax on if you had bought them yerself in the US of A.
I'm starting to get a deeper understanding of the meaning of that old expression, the rich get richer.
Having said all that- the US gov't is trying to set up all kinds of landmines for people who open offshore companies, so if you were to do such a thing, you should do it with an expert who knows how to keep Big Broother at bay.
- Steve
PS- I know what you mean about retail businesses with employees giving you migraines. Maybe the ideal retail business would be a very small shop that you could run by yourself that deals in hobby supplies and collectibles ( including, of course, numismatic gold & silver coins. ) As you mentioned, if you start dealing in bullion, including bullion coins, you open yourself up to all sorts of Big Brother problems. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:26
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD (HERR BILL2J-) ID#431263:
Copyright © 1998 GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - You hit the proverbial nail on the head with your last post, mein Herr!
That's precisely what is going on in Hashimotoland! ABER, SONDERN, BUT......What happens to this beautiful deal once the EURO starts to replace the Buck as the world's reserve currency to accomodate ME oil? You guessed it! THE DOLLAR TANKS 50% or MORE against ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES and that 5% spread which looks so good now, suddenly looks like the proverbial SCHEISS that it ultimately is!
So the game goes on.....UNTIL the day the EURO starts replacing the dollar as a central bank reserve currency! THEN, all hell's gonna' break loose as the strongest currency in the world, suddenly becomes the weakest currency in the world! That's when gold is gonna' make its run to glory! And I intend to be there with all my KITCO Freunden to cash in mein chips! Jawohl? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:23
Jack (Bill2j @21:57) ID#252127: -
Makes a heck of a lotta sense to me, dat is until da werld gits wise, especially the US taxpayer. Hopefully all get wise and make a run for the gold. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:20
Squirrel (There are some notable exceptions) ID#287186: - Mountain people have occasionally succumbed to overwhelming force which was also vastly more destructive than their primitive weapons and where a flood of settlers rooted them out valley by valley, village by village and one by one. But such operations are quite costly to the intruder.
Could the Chinese do that to us here in the Appalachians or Rockies?
I don't think they have the requisite technological advantage.
It would be easier for them to conquer us economically, especially if they or a pan-asian alliance end up owning most of the world's Gold. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:03
Squirrel (Mountain folk worldwide have been successfully resistant to conquerers) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - PAR - thanks for the url to Oceania
History has shown that mountains are bastions of sovereignty. The peoples thereof are difficult to conquer. Somewhere I read that coastal folk are easier to conquer both strategically and because they acquiese faster. Mountain folk are strategically difficult and the people are tough individualists - they assimilate the intruders rather than be conquered.
Now the difficult part is finding a mountain bastion - Andorra perhaps or the South Island of New Zealand.
Has anybody managed to link to this site? ( which I found on Yahoo )
Mountain Clan Home Page - Noble defense of any charge unto death Respect and honour for all peers Personal glory above all in battle Clan Philosophy and Page Explanation The Village Kesmai™ Links Page E-mail Service E-mail the Mountain Clan Council This Web site is...
-- http://publish.co.nz/mcclan/
I've run across it again and again in searches but the site does not respond. Adding www to it and/or deleting mcclan doesn't work either.
Steve - thanks for the url to Laissez-Faire City
The concept of geographically defined nations has for some time seemed to be unrealistic in light of the internet and communications in general.
The security of such a nation would depend heavily on maintenance of secure and stable communications. Y2K could wreak havoc with it. So could a determined effort on the part of the UN. I wonder if the Internet has grown so integral and pervasive that it can not be regulated, monitored or killed by national or international governments.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 23:02
Tantalus__A (tolerant1) ID#374204: - Sincerest thanks for your 18:08 post. Now I can vent on BC
without kluttering this site. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 22:59
Barney (Dollar stronger) ID#258269: - Click on: http://www.bloomberg.com/@@OIiBuAYASdDcFl@L/bbn/topww1.html>http://www.bloomberg.com/@@OIiBuAYASdDcFl@L/bbn/topww1.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 22:30
codeman (Claimstaker and Japenese Investment) ID#159145: - Does Claimstaker resources operate outside North America
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 22:10
The Hatt (Japan Buying Gold? Yes I Have Proof!) ID#294232: - A Japanese Company has just invested $2,250,000.00 in a VSE listed company that is about to reopen a mine in B.C. Canada. It would not surprise me to see further behind the scenes investing in Gold. The company i refer to is Claimstaker!
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 22:09
Grizz (Thanks Steve. Cuzz'n Mtn Bear - did you see Steve's post?) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - We each need to start a small cash-based retail business.
Don't even think about restaurants, bars or convenience stores.
I've been there and done that ( employee wise ) .
Too dad gum much work, long hours, gotta be open all the time
especially on holidays & weekends, food prep & losses.
It has to be a sole proprietorship - no employees!
No corporations cuz the paper trail gets horrendous.
Maybe buy & sell gold coins, bars, grain & dust.
Now they'll tell me that PM dealers have to register
with the feds or state or get some kinda special permit
and keep detailed records of all PM transactions. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:57
Bill2j (@Silverfox) ID#259400:
Copyright © 1998 Bill2j/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - If I understand what is going on vis a vis the Japanese it goes like this. The Japanese banks borrow 100 yen from their version of the fed. for this they pay .25% interest. They buy $1.00 worth of US treasuries that yield 5.75%. They are making over 500 basis points on the spread with no risk at all. In addition to that the currency is manipulated from 100 yen to the dollar to 140 yen to the dollar. When and if the Japanese bank redeems the US treasury they pick up 40% on the currency change. I don't know about you but the way I see it the Japanese government has figured out a way for the US to bail out their banks at the US taxpayer's expense. I doubt if they will raise rates any time soon. Not only that they have enhanced their competitive edge and increased their profit margins on goods they sell us. What is the incentive for them to change? +
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:49
6pak (FWIW @ 1994 & PROGRESSIVE) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Dr. Robert J. Shapiro is Vice President of the Progressive
Policy Institute
-----------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
1
Robert J. Shapiro, Cut-and-Invest to Compete and Win, A
Budget Strategy for American Growth, Progressive Policy
Institute, Policy Report No. 18, January 1994.
POLICY BRIEFING
May 31, 1994
CLINTONOMICS:
THE CASE FOR A MID-COURSE CORRECTION
Robert J. Shapiro
The economy is growing, the deficit is shrinking, trade is expanding. Yet President Clinton's economists forecast slower growth through the 1990s than in the 1980s, tacitly acknowledging that the U.S. economy's structural problems persist.
In addition, interest-rate increases and other economic evidence signal that the current expansion could well end by early 1996. The President has ample time, however, to combine good policy and good politics by adjusting his program to target these problems and promote strong sustained growth.
What should President Clinton and Congress do? First, they should understand why the great expansions of the 1960s ( which lasted 34 quarters ) and 1980s ( which lasted 30 quarters ) survived so long. The 1960s cycle, after nearly expiring when the Fed hiked interest rates sharply in 1966, drew new strength from persistent productivity gains, Vietnam War spending and rising trade surpluses.
Several factors contributed to the long life of the 1980s expansion.
The deep recession of 1981-82 left the economy with unusually high levels of unused factory capacity and unemployed labor, so the cycle could draw on large amounts of idle equipment and workers before hitting the wall.
Inflation also was checked for a while by competition from cheap imports. In addition, from 1986 to 1989, exports grew as the dollar weakened, and financial deregulation and falling interest rates supported massive credit expansion that offset declining budget deficits.
http://www.dlcppi.org/TEXTS/ECONOMIC/c'nomics.TXT - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:48
Lan Man (@New Article at ) ID#320108:
- - Clinton Bows to Red Chinese Demands at Tiananmen Square
A small part:
There are convicted spies serving lifelong prison sentences for helping the Soviets the way Clinton has helped the Red Chinese, which makes his trip to China even more disgusting. After allegedly selling his country out to boost his own political fortunes, the president goes to visit his benefactors for nine days, longer than any other state visit by a U.S. president. With Clinton's loyalty to his country in question, and the word treason sounding more appropriate by the hour, one wonders if Clinton and Chinese leader Jiang Zemin are laughing and sharing drinks while planning their next move.
See it all at: http://www.thewinds.org/archive/economy/clinton_visits_china06-98.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:25
3-cubed (NOTE FROM JAPAN) ID#344239: - http://www.economictimes.com/today/06worl1.htm
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:25
SILVERFOX (I have a YEN for the POG (and POS)) ID#113316:
Copyright © 1998 SILVERFOX/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The US has a huge trade deficit which might swell to the $300 billion/yr level if dollar continues to strengthen and has a $Trillion accumulated external debt. Keynes would say this is a prescription for a very weak currency. Recent economic report states the dollar is already overvalued by 30% against the yen. Capital flows from Japan to US, particularly since the big bang reforms of the Japanese capital markets, are the cause of the strong dollar ( note the strength in US financial markets and dollar since April 1st ) . Dollar will weaken when Japan takes steps to curtail the capital outflows and discourage yen carry trade. Simple suggestion would be for them to raise short term interest rates. Such a move would shock the markets, so I don't think much of an increase would be needed to be very effective.
Weak dollar would help the POG priced in dollars ( note POG is already in bull market priced in many other currencies ) . However, major bull will start when CBs stop the practice of gold leasing and producers stop the practice of excessive forward sales.
It is amazing to me in the midst of the most severe currency crisis that the world has ever faced that CBs still have not come to the conclusion of the wisdom of having adequate gold reserves. Obviously a currency is unlikely to fall by 70% if it is backed 30% by gold reserves. Dines said it best in a recent interview: his advice to CBs - get the message, gold reserves equate to stable currency!
If CBs have provided the gunpowder, producers have provided the guns. The artificial incentives to lease gold and sell it forward have led producers as a group to take actions that are very contrary to their own long term interests. Hopefully, since a reported 60% of all gold mines are not profitable at $300 gold, this activity has dried up.
Those that say gold is headed down to $250 or $200 or less must believe that the CBs will continue to provide a virtually unlimited supply of gold to the market and producers will enter into hedging strategies that will guarantee an eventual loss for them. Although I have little faith in CBs, particularly outside of the US/Britain/France/Germany/Italy group, I don't believe either will happen.
Conclusion, gold has seen its bottom. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:24
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Abitibi and Norwegian company bid for large mill in Korea
MONTREAL ( CP ) -- Abitibi-Consolidated has joined a trek of Western companies to Asia where they are shopping for pulp and paper competitors who have fallen into difficulty.
The Asian companies are on their knees, said independent analyst John Duncanson. You're going to see a lot more of this.
One year ago all that capacity was a threat to the U.S. and Canadian producers, he said. Now it's not a threat at all, it's more an opportunity.
The big players are all there having a kick at the can. Abitibi's only mill outside North America is in England.
Asian pulp and paper mills, generally modern, world-class sites built during the last five years, are apparently going cheap but are currently in the doldrums.
You could say it's almost dead money for awhile because the Korean market will remain depressed, said Duncanson.
Abitibi is currently in a labor conflict, with 11 of its 17 North American mills shut down by a strike that started June 15.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Abitibi-Korea.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 21:06
Spud Master (@Steve in TO_A) ID#288235:
- - You can not stop Big Brother from collecting information on you.
You can, however, jam Big Brother by ramming vast amounts of bad/misleading/wrong/false information down his throat: when his databases are filled with inaccurate information, he falls apart.
Take every opportunity to feed Big Brother incorrect information. slighty wrong. a wee bit off. an honest mistake. over and over until those mailing list databases, those demographic profiles, those consumer preferences are nothing but useless piles of bits.
Spud, fighting back in his own informational way
1776 Now! - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:47
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Holbrooke returns to meet Milosevic, praises Rugova
PRISTINA, Yugoslavia ( AP ) -- U.S. and Russian envoys urged Kosovo's ethnic Albanians on Sunday to rally behind moderate leader Ibrahim Rugova, insisting he is the best choice to speak for their interests.
Holbrooke, nominated to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has been shuttling between Kosovo's capital, Pristina, and the Yugoslav capital, Belgrade, since Friday.
The German news magazine Spiegel quoted KLA spokesman Jakub Krasniqi as saying his organization would never accept Rugova as a leader because non-violence has failed to gain independence or halt the crackdown.
As part of the diplomatic effort to curb the crisis, Belgrade-based diplomats from the United States, Russia, Poland and the European Union are to visit flashpoints in Kosovo today.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.Yugoslavia-Kosovo.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:40
Steve in TO__A (Grizz - Never fear . . .) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - my post wasn't meant to imply that you can't escape the prying eye of Big Brother if you want to use lots of cash. There are several ways to be exempted from Currency Transaction Report requirements ( remember- money laundering laws are for the little people : )
Here is a summary from Orlin Grabbe's article on the issue:
'The Banking Secrecy Act allows your bank to exempt you from filling out currency transaction reports ( CTRs ) if your deposits or withdrawals of currency fall into any of the following categories ( see 31 C.F.R.
103.22 ( b ) ( 2 ) ( 1992 ) ) :
1 ) They are made from an existing bank account, and you are an established U.S. depositor who operates a retail type of business. This means that you sell consumer goods for which payments are substantially in the form of currency, just as long as you are not an automobile, aircraft, or boat dealer. ( Wal- Mart, for example, can get a bank exemption. )
2 ) They are made from an existing bank account, and you are an established U.S. depositor who operates a sports arena, race track, amusement park, restaurant, hotel, check cashing service licensed by state or local governments, vending machine company, theater, regularly scheduled passenger carrier, or public utility. ( The Oaklawn racetrack in Hot Springs, Arkansas, can get a bank exemption. )
3 ) You are a local, state or United States governmental agency or instrumentality. ( Both the National Programs Office and the Arkansas Development Finance Authority can get bank exemptions. )
4 ) They are made from an existing bank account, and you are an established U.S. depositor who regularly withdraws more than $10,000 to pay your employees in currency. ( The paymaster for the pilots at Mena airport can get an bank exemption. )
Also exempt from CTR reporting are currency transactions made with Federal Reserve Banks or Federal Home Loan Banks, transactions between domestic banks, or transactions between commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions.
Pretty neat, huh? Now I hear you ask: But what can I do if I am just Joe Blow, and I don't have a bank or a chicken franchise or a sports arena? The answer: Tough luck, Buster. The money- laundering regs were written for you. '
To read the whole thing, go to:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/part33.htm
The best way to deal with large amounts of cash, though, is to operate your own casino. Take a look at:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/casinoml.htm
There are drawbacks to owning a casino, of course, like visits from the Mob. There is a company here in Toronto that has become the premier developer of offshore Internet casinos, and average investors have been setting these up!
Operating a cash-based retail business is one way to get around CTR's with the blessing of the gov't, but of course, you have to put in a great deal of effort. Might work for you though.
- Steve
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:38
HighRise (Yen & $) ID#401460: - 7/5/98 -- 8:17 PM
Dollar higher against yen in Tokyo
TOKYO ( AP ) - The U.S. dollar was trading at 140.46 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange
market at 9 a.m. Monday, up 1.22 yen from its level of 139.24 yen as of 5 p.m. Friday. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:33
Spock (U.S. is the key........) ID#210114: - Several previous posters have stated that POG won't pick up unitl there is a crisis of confidence in $US and U.S. assetts. I agree. Only when there is flight away from these assetts will POG rise.
Time will tell.
Live Long and Prosper
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:32
tsclaw (Opening Asian Markets) ID#327123: - Japan down fractionally, China down a hugh 3.32%. If the china markets collapse gold is going up.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:32
Spock (ROR) ID#210114: - Solidarity forever!! Sorry I haven't been around to support you in your social democratic arguments.
Live Long and Prosper. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:31
Grizz (Steve - now to the larger problem facing all Goldbugs and Silverbugs) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - So the circulation of private Gold series will be taboo too.
I'd wonder if the circulation of ANY Gold or Silver coin for common trade purposes like buying groceries would be viewed as money laundering. So if I some old Silver quarters and tried to trade them for canned chicken and baby oil for my bald pate - I'd be thrown in the jug for evading tax laws or something. I best give my old car a real inside and out vacuum and steam cleaning. As noted elsewhere here by gunrunner on Mon Jun 29 1998 14:43 - none of us can afford to have a seed found by inquisitive gendarmes. But then they'd plant a few if they can't find one. Yes our Independence and Freedom is going into the toilet! - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:22
GoldnBoy (Gold is positive in early trading. Go Gold!) ID#417249: -
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:13
Grizz (Steve - Another escape tunnel crushed by the tanks!) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - What the hell is a guy to do who wants to liquify his assets?
Cuzz'n Mtn. Bear,
Think seriously then about paying by check for mucho trade goods.
Maybe now is a good time to open a small business with LOTS of inventory.
Diversify your merchandise. Since you can't afford a large retail floor you would of course then have to store most of your inventory in a secure warehouse/backroom.
Well fellow Kitcoites - will this idea work?
We keep tunneling while Colonel Klink's tanks keep rolling.
Stupid analogy - but all I could come up with since I have a headache from too little coffee and too much sun on a bald head. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:12
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - In bull market, risk doesn't go away
NEW YORK ( AP ) -- While investors in stocks and stock mutual funds are busy counting up the rewards they are reaping from a mighty bull market, they can easily lose track of the risks they are taking.
You can eliminate all apparent stock-market risk from your life by pulling all of your money out of stocks and stock funds, or never putting any of it there in the first place. But then you face the problem of where else to invest it.
Cash buried in your backyard may be safe from obvious risks like stock market crashes. But it is left unprotected from inflation. And since it cannot grow in its hiding place, it also puts you at risk of not meeting future needs and goals such as amassing an adequate retirement nest egg.
Since last October, the average mutual fund has gained less than half as much as the S and P 500, an indication of poor breadth in the advance to
new highs. A high level of caution is appropriate.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Market-Worries.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:09
gagnrad (EJ re depression) ID#43460: - There is an old saying among military men. You never hear the one that gets you. If 1929 starts again they'll supplement the flood of US Fed reserve notes coming home from overseas with lots of crisp new money. Plus they'd pump a few billion into the welfare machine. The people are like trained mice. Give them the money and they'll keep buying. IMHO
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 20:03
6pak () ID#335190: - GM strike talks remain stalled
Meanwhile, GM has one week to settle before the automaker's market rebound suffers permanent damage, the Detroit News reported Sunday.
Half of GM's remaining inventory of 850,000 cars and trucks probably will disappear by August if U.S. auto buyers continue their current buying spree.
GM must also address threatened strikes in Dayton, Ohio and Indianapolis.
http://www.freecartoons.com/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.GM-Strikes.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:59
HighRise (Japan) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
NO TAX CUT
Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
8:03PM
16377.12
-134.12
-0.81% - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:55
DJ (Buying gold at 294) ID#268233:
Copyright © 1998 DJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - EJ - I try to ignore this kind of input. I'm not astute enough to differentiate what is real and meaningful from what is intentionally released to mislead. However, I'm starting to find that my work regarding the channel charts sometimes provides early indications that something major is changing, even though no relevant causes are yet known. One of the latest was when I detected that platinum was not responding as it should to the mega-spikes in palladium. This saved me mucho bucks. ( If I had more confidence in this reading, I could have made a ton ) . Watching the action of silver relative to the other metals allowed me to define the new up channel early on and to buy at a good price. ( Knock on wood ... hope it really is an up channel! )
Getting back to your question, regarding gold, I am starting to see strength in gold that wasn't there previously. I haven't yet bet the farm on it, but it could well be that there is something going on behind the scenes that is very bullish for gold. Another week should give more clues.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:52
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - July 5, 1998
Slower U.S. economy shouldn't hurt Canada, analysts say
TORONTO ( CP ) -- A cold wind is blowing through the U.S. economy, but analysts say it won't cause much more than a few ripples across Canada's economic waters.
The troubles in Asia are already hitting the United States, pushing up the jobless rate, hurting orders for manufactured goods and widening that country's trade deficit with Japan and other battered Asian countries.
While a slowing U.S. economy will affect Canadian exports, it won't be enough to damage the robust Canadian domestic economy, which is headed for another year of strong growth and job creation, analysts say.
Short of a big recession in the United States, I don't think a slowdown in the American economy is going to have a huge impact on growth in Canada, says Mario Angastiniotis, a senior economist at Standard and Poor's MMS in Toronto.
Canada's economy should post the strongest expansion of the G7 industrial countries in 1998, with a growth rate that could rival last year's 3.7 per cent.
Remember, economies don't turn on a dime, he says. You don't get five-per-cent growth one quarter and one per cent the next.
a weak Canadian dollar continues to help exporters shipping to the U.S. market. And while shipments to Asia have dropped sharply -- trade with Japan is down about 50 per cent from last year -- shipments to Europe are growing.
You're getting some compensation here, he said. There's weakness in Asia, but you're getting strength in Europe offsetting some of that, so it's not really a one-way picture of doom and gloom.
http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.US-Economy-Canada.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:47
gagnrad (glenn, I may have found the lost gold!) ID#43460: - If the US treasury sells this amount of gold might they be selling it to another agency? Like maybe the mint? Look at the sales figures links. http://www.usmint.gov/Bullion/Bullion.cfm
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:43
robnoel__A (HEADS UP...there is a story in the international edition of the London Telegraph (reg.required)) ID#411112: -
warning from the would be King of France of
the coming Euro ......BIG BAD NEWS.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:41
glenn (My Two Cents) ID#376309: - My gut feeling is that Gold is going to make up it's mind on which direction it wants to go in the next 20 hours and the action will be obvious on the price charts. The COT report comes out Monday and everyone will know then what is going on anyway so the king will be exposed.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:39
Charles Keeling (@ The Scene RE: VIAGRA) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I have heard reports that a black market in VIAGRA now exists in the
Arab countries with the pill going for $80.00 a pop.
This makes me wonder about the viability about the US trading
Viagra for oil. ( just kidding )
I can't believe that the US public will go along with tax dollars
continuing to flow to the IMF while bailouts continue overseas.
Why would the taxpayers of America stand still while billions of
dollars are being spent trying to bail out Russia. Is Japan next?
Then what? China?
The only way to bail them all out would be to devalue the US dollar.
IMHO, the lofty value of the US dollar, in relation to other world
currencies is like high water backed up behind a dam. Sooner or later,
water will find it's level.
Then, of course, GOLD will soar in dollar terms.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:37
6pak (Worker's/Citizen's @ Communist's/Capitalist's - What the hell, it is about Tax & Power eh!) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - July 5, 1998
Russia miners pile on pressure by blocking railway
MOSCOW ( Reuters ) - Russian coalminers kept up pressure on the embattled government Sunday by blocking the key Trans-Siberian railway for a third day protesting their region's economic decay.
If taxes are not paid, the state cannot survive, Kiriyenko said, adding that the same hardline approach would be used against other enterprises who fell behind in tax payments.
Yeltsin has issued a veiled threat to dissolve parliament if it does not hurry up and pass the laws, which the government hopes will fill a big budget gap and help it to win a $10 billion to $15 billion emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund.
We are only letting passenger trains go, said a spokesman for the protesting miners in the Siberian town of Anzhero-Sudzhensk, where other workers are also demonstrating against the threatened closure of their indebted enterprises.
A senior controller of the railway ministry told Russian Television 18 freight trains had been held up, including 41 wagons filled with perishable goods.
Government officials flew to Anzhero-Sudzhensk over the weekend to try to stop the blockade spreading. They say a similar action in May cost millions of dollars.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/RUSSIA.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:33
tolerant1 (goldfevr, Namaste') ID#373284: - Your assessment is not understated.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:27
dirt (British Pound's turn) ID#215379: - I guess its the European currencies turn to devalue against the all-mighty US dollar. Whats happening to the British pound today ?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:26
glenn (EJ) ID#376309: - You are correct in that they did not sell much Gold but I do like ot point it out when ever the US Treasury does something with our Gold.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:23
EJ (The first point is to say that this depression is unavoidable.) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Since the beginning of this crisis, about $115 billion have fled out of the five major crisis countries - Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines. This is about 10 per cent of the GDP of these countries. In addition to that, credits banking credits have also been reduced by about $88 billion which is approximately another 8 per cent of the GDP. It means that about worth 18 per cent of the GDP of these countries has just vanished in terms of funding of the economies. This withdrawal of funds has had the tremendous impact that you are all aware of and have witnessed on the stock market and the exchange rate.
The impact on the loss of wealth in these countries as well as on the situation - the monetary exchange rate on the interest rates, etc, is absolutely tremendous ... In itself, this phenomenon that has happened has created a shock that cannot be avoided and we will feel the impact of this shock for many more months.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/9806/17/pageone/pageone2.html
-EJ - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:13
Selby (John Disney) ID#286230: - I don't know about you but reading the confused and incorrect views of what is going on around me puts the validity of the average post on Kitco in a clear if unfortunate perspective. Unlike other people communists cannot change their views and I'm living in a country that is at the same time booming expanding economically faster than all the other G7's and fearing a depression. Finding facts to fit your bias is one thing but making up the facts to fit your bias is CNN.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:12
HighRise (Gold) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gold ( CMX )
Aug
295.3
+0.3
7/5/98
16:00
296.1
295.3 - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 19:01
goldfevr (tolerant1 @ 18:08) ID#434108: - Thanks for the url;
it doesn't sound like your sympathies lie with...
'tolerance'
for the president. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:59
6pak (Question?) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - I noticed in the material I posted to JP, regarding, the House Democratic Leader Richard A. Gephardt Address to the Council on Foreign Relations Preserving World Capitalism for the Next Century:
Gephardt made note of Supporting the two parts of his request - the $3.5 billion for the New Arrangements to Borrow and the $14.5 billion for the IMF quota increase
I request of others, if anyone has knowledge of the words New arrangements to Borrow AND IMF quota increase .
I expect that there is great meaning in the use of these words, can anyone explain.
Thanks Take Care.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:58
EJ (DJ: what's your take on Euro banks apparently buying gold at 294) ID#45173: - possibly maintaining that bottom?
-EJ - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:52
EJ (glenn: maybe I'm wrong, but I read that statement to mean) ID#45173: - receipts from gold sales were $11M. That means they sold around 36,000 oz. Not much. Even at $42/oz, it's not a lot. Makes you wonder why they'd bother.
-EJ - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:42
goldfevr (DJ @ 18:04/channells/charts/sharing gems of wisdom - priceless pictures) ID#434108: - DJ, Thanks mucho for your continued charts;
and how do you do that:
How do you post your charts, here at kitco, like that?
Sincerely, I am very naive & slow when it comes to truely using the computer effectively, to share my charts/creativve interests.
Any software/image-transferring soft-ware, or simple commmands ( -Netscape 3/Win'95 ) that you can pass on to me, would be greatly appreciated.
thanks,
David
goldfever@k-online.com - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:41
6pak (JP @ 17:31 @ USofA House Democratic Leader Gephardt ) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - JP you stated and I agree : Politicians , who hate the gold standard, have sat back as **their ** central bankers sold off gold. Financial power results from fiscal and monetary prudence backed up by gold backed currency. If a country ignores that principle, it's financial power will be undermined and transferred to another country or in this case , a quasi central authority of the one world banking structure.
I found this political site, and consider the comments of Gephardt is a plea on behalf of the world banking structure. His remarks do not support the standards of the citizen of the USofA, or those citizen's of other nation's. He mentions worker's and democracy, but also references Global Capitalism and He Is A Progressive Internationalist and New Economic Order
Politicians, and Power's To Be, eh! ( Democratic International Corporations )
Take Care.
Remarks by Richard A. Gephardt
House Democratic Leader
at the Council on Foreign Relations
New York, New York, March 3, 1998
As released by the Office of Richard A. Gephardt
House Democratic Leader Richard A. Gephardt
Address to the Council on Foreign Relations
Preserving World Capitalism for the Next Century:
A Plan of Action New York, New York
March 3, 1998
As America's economy hums along at a bullish pace, economies on the other side of the world are on the precipice of collapse. Many Americans believe that our own economic progress -- low inflation, interest and unemployment rates, rising stock markets -- has insulated us from the turmoil occurring in world markets.
In recent months, the Asian Tigers -- the Republic of South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and others -- have been battered and beaten as their markets have plummeted and their currencies devalued.
I am a progressive internationalist. I embrace the new internationalism, but I do so with a realistic understanding of the challenges and difficulties inherent in any radical transition to a new economic order. To ensure that the new global economy will create a broad based and widely shared world economic boom, we must create a new architecture for the new global economy.
Many of these so-called experts have now been stunned to learn that the primary base of support for the President's request to shore up the IMF comes from those who opposed the Republican fast track bill.
Congress should pass the President's supplemental appropriations request for the IMF first and foremost because it's in our best interest to stabilize investor confidence the world over. Supporting the two parts of his request - the $3.5 billion for the New Arrangements to Borrow and the $14.5 billion for the IMF quota increase will help restore confidence around the world that, if there is another wave of crisis, the international system has the ability to respond.
I agree with those who argue that the IMF should not insure investors against all risk. Investing in emerging markets entails risk - the job of the IMF is not to eliminate that risk. It is to be responsible for preventing the utter collapse of national economies.
Kim Dae-Jung, shortly after his election, said : I believe that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis, including here in Korea, is because of placing economic development ahead of democracy.
Our overall trade balance is beginning to worsen - reaching historic levels with red ink in growing amounts as far as the eye can see. Economic growth is expected to be lower this year -- as much as a full percentage point -- and job losses are expected.
I and the group of trade experts known as the revisionists - Clyde Prestowitz, Chalmers Johnson, Karel von Wolferen, Tag Murphy and others - have been criticized for years for trying to get action by Japan. Now our views are becoming mainstream as others begin to really understand the problem. Addressing the Japan issue must be an integral component of our policy program.
The IMF appeared totally unprepared and unaware of the roots of this crisis. Last year they gave their stamp of approval to the economies of Thailand and Indonesia.
http://www.foreignrelations.org/studies/conferences/gephardt.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:39
robnoel__A (John Disney....you can't escape a hit like that without my responce,you live in a fools paradise if ) ID#411112: -
you think a communist changes colours,the only one I know of is David Horwitz,Mandella and his crew of thugs are trying to hoodwink the west because their economic plan as with all communist plans is a failure,like I say brother keep your powder dry - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:35
glenn (US Gold) ID#376309: - Someone is selling Gold again. Guess Who
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/H41/Current/
Scroll down and look foR Gold stock and remember the gold is on the books at $42.22 22/100 per ounce. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:32
goldfevr (JD@ 17:33 Rand Fall... '& all') ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Thanks;
just saw this post of yours.
I believe it is always worth-while to ask:
why is this particular currency, collapsing in the....
...the... 'face of gold's truth' .....
at this particular time....
I believe there can be political/social upheaval - factors...
that can, at times trigger...
sudden volatility in a particular currency...
I do believe Australia & New Zealand....
as reflected in their respective currencies demise..
in the face of gold
...
are not only harbingers of what is to come,
for all paper-currency monies...
but they are also, perhaps ( -just my opinion/imho ) ...
harboring a more ominous, sinister....
unfolding...of world events...
these are the first ( two ) wasp societies...
to begin to buckle under -- at least as reflected in their currencies' collapse vis-a-vis gold...
since the Asian Contagion outbreak.....
This 'monetary/credit/economic' plague ....
of collapsing currencies ( -& economies ) ...
has, so far....
been largely 'relegated-to'...'assigned-to'...'blamed-upon'...
the 'excesses' of the SE-Asian nations/national governments...
themselves.
( for example, see the current, 7/6/98, Barron's piece,
by William Pesek Jr., entitled: Malaise-ia. )
IMHO: this is a perfect & pitiful example of the West's bias & condescending condemnation & scapegoating...
blaming the East for the economic travails that are troubling,
and undermining ... the world.
IMHO: The Australian & New Zealand currencies' declining...
in the face/light of gold... - in exchange for gold...
are following, in foot-step/goose-step...
to the declines/collapses ...
of the currencies of the SE Asian nations.
These are the first two, 'West'-ern nations currencies,
to begin to buckle.
Both nations are in close proximity to, and much more intimately-economically tied to...
the fortunes of Asia...
than we here in America/Europe, or even Africa,
including So. Africa.
Perhaps Aust. & N.Z. 's currencies decline,
in exchange for gold,
similar to So. Africa's ( -& so many others/SE Asia & more ) ,
are just added fuel on the fire...
of paper-money's conflagration.
The world-economy that has been fueled by all this,
is burning up.
Perhaps..... 'this' ....
is....
the fire next time .
are reflecting thatcurrency - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:29
Allen(USA) (cockroaches indeed!) ID#255190: - Another millenial bug to be reconned with.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:27
HighRise (YR 2000 problem) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Sunday July 5, 3:00 pm Eastern Time
Internat'l experts urge action on Year 2000 issue
BASLE, Switzerland, July 5 ( Reuters ) - The Joint Year 2000 Council, an international grouping of private and public sector experts, said countries must do more to prepare for computer problems expected at the turn of the millennium.
In a statement, it said ``the seriousness of the potential consequences of failing to adequately meet the Year 2000 challenges and the complexity of developing solutions to avoid major disruptions clearly demands a more coordinated effort across key industries than is currently underway in most countries.''
It ``strongly recommends'' that all countries develop a national strategy with respect to the Year 2000.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980705/internat_l_1.html
HighRise
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:16
Steve in TO__A (Grizz - If you put small amounts of . . . ) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - money in different banks and withdraw significant amounts close together in time, each less than $10,000.00, you can be charged with stucturing your cash transactions to avoid triggering the Cash Transaction Reporting requirements of the Bank Secrecy Act ( an Orwellian oxymoron if ever there was one! )
This is serious. I was flabbergasted by the case of a university student who was convicted of money laundering by a judge because he had made several $3,000.00 withdrawals over a period of a few days to pay for tuition, residence, etc.. The judge said that ignorance of the law was no excuse, and the student should have used checks to pay for those things. The student didn't go to jail, like a real money launderer hiding drug funds would have- as I recall the judge sentenced him to probation, or something. The student did end up with a criminal record, though.
On the day after Independence Day, all Americans should reflect on what their country has come to.
BTW- when Bill Clinton was proven to have authorized his campaign manager to make multiple $3,000.00 withdrawals to pay Arkansas black community leaders walking around money during his gubernatorial campaigns, nobody got charged, and in a few cases the fellow made $10,000.00 withdrawals, but pressured the bank manager to not fill out the Currency Transaction Forms. Why? Well, you don't mess with the Democratic Party in Arkansas if you want to keep your DA job or your judgeship, or whatever, and the bank manager was told that if he wanted to keep the large Democrat bank accounts at his branch, he'd better not fill out the forms. The Starr investigation looked into it, but hasn't followed up with any charges yet.
Money laundering laws are for the little people.
I expect money laundering to be the excuse governments will try to use to suppress circulation of private gold currencies, such as the Krugerrand series, when people finally have to resort to them.
- Steve
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:08
tolerant1 (scroll down a little on this one for the good stuff...) ID#373284: - http://www.webforums.com/forums/f-read/msa64.64.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:04
DJ (Channels) ID#215208:
Copyright © 1998 DJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Gold - Seems to have found a new line of resistance ... the long-term, up-trend line of palladium. Huh? Must be a coincidence. :- ) Getting back to real life, it seems to me that gold is holding up well. Silver has been slapped down hard. The scenario I favor is that silver will drop back and test its upward channel bottom again, then head for the stars. If gold holds strong, its price at that time should define the new bottom of an upward-trending channel. I like this theory! :- ) On the other hand, since silver bounced off the top of the old downward-trending channel, it could continue down to the bottom of this channel, thus invalidating the new up-channel. This could and probably would take gold back down to its channel bottom. :- ( Silver is the key. Watch it.
Silver - Discipline, discipline! I had promised myself that I would sell when silver hit the top of the old down channel, but it was heading up so fast, I decided it might well blast right through. So I didn't sell. I will really kick myself if the last scenario discussed above happens. Oh well, have to wait and see.
Platinum - A very strong week, considering it really didn't get a boost from palladium. I think something good is happening here!
Palladium - Wandering around in the vacinity of its uptrend line. Seems stable.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:04
goldfevr (John Disney @ 17:51) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr All rights reserved - Forgive my ignorance; so is it that Mandela, and the ANC, are for real; they are coming to grips with the reality of the situation, and disassociating themselves...from...
the more leftist/communist/statist ..tactics, and organizations..
and power-blocks....
that are 'para-siting ' ...
off of the more radical/desperate/gullible elements..
in the.....brewing.... South African...
crisis. ?
Is this 'tinder-box'...part of what has fueled...
the recent collapse in the rand?
Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
San Diego, CA
goldfever@k-online.com - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 18:02
Jeremy (@Squirrel (Freedom - how bad must it get before we demand it again?) 13:48) ID#248170: - I enjoyed reading your posting. I think FREE is a tricky one. It can mean so many things. But I reckon Pink Floyd might have said that free = no bricks in the wall.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:54
vronsky (COCKROACH THEORY APPLIED TO JAPAN'S BAD BANK LOANS) ID#427357: -
Just as the COCKROACH THEORY can be applied to the Y2K incidents, so may it be used to refer to Japan's Banking System Bad Loans:
For every $100 billion in Bad Loans the BOJ admits to ( which is seen ) , there are 10 more hidden in the walls.
Mr. Seidman, Mr. Seidman... OOOOH SEIDMAN - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:54
tolerant1 (some more excellent points...un huh.........) ID#373284: - http://www.nandotimes.com/newsroom/ntn/voices/070398/voices14_9224.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:51
John Disney__A (SA Communist Party) ID#24135: - For the last 3/4 days .. Mandela and
Thabo Mbeki have been blasting hell
out of the Communist party and
Cosatu, the big trade union. The
feeling is that ANC will end its
troubled alliance with them after
the next election.. That will be the
end of the CP.. and cosatu has been
losing membership at a great rate..
This is the kind of SA news that
never gets US press comment or
mention on this site by observers
such as Robnoel.. problem is ..
it does not fit preconceived
attitudes .. yes ? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:49
tolerant1 (Some excellent points in here...uh huh...) ID#373284: - http://www.nandotimes.com/newsroom/ntn/voices/070398/voices17_9542.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:47
Steve in TO__A (Hey Squirrell . . .) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - You were asking about whether there's a serious group of people trying to set up an economically free territory. There is. They are trying to identify a state that will let them set up a city ( Laissez-Faire City ) that will make Hong Kong look like an economic pipsqueak. They have set up a temporary community in Costa Rica. These are serious people- some big names from all over the world are involved, but of course, it takes serious money ( that would be better invested in PM at the moment, as far as I'm concerned ) to participate.
To find out more go to: http://www.lfcity.com/
- Steve
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:46
Mtn Bear (SE) (Swiss Banks and Gold) ID#347267: - Could it be that it is the interest of the Swiss banks to keep the POG down while they get out from under this Holocaust repayment thing? Could it be that the other CB's are helping them
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:33
JP (Where do we go from here ? ) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Over the last 50 years politicians have be using debt to pay the people insatiable demand for free lunch . That free lunch manifested itself in social programs, foreign aid, wars, etc. This can continue as long as the productive portion of a society can carry and service the load. When tha balance tips, and it has tipped, the bubble burst in a deflationary implosion that is caused by the need to reliquify in order to service both the private and public debt.That has occurred in Asia and it is beginning to arrive at our shores. One of the bi products of a payment of the free lunch is the debasement of currencies. Currently, all Asian currencies are being debased . Politicians , who hate the gold standard, have sat back as their central bankers sold off gold. Financial power results from fiscal and monetary prudence backed up by gold backed currency. If a country ignores that principle, it's financial power will be undermined and transferred to another country or in this case , a quasi central authority of the one world banking structure. Thus, individual national entities cease to exist because their financial structures , currencies, banks, etc, cease to have influence. All the Asian countries have lost their financial independence. The problem with this scenerio is two fold. First, centralized control ( IMF ) stifle the bloodlife of any economy. Examples are many and increasing in numbers. Second, the IMF denies the existence of the territorial imperative which are in our genes ever since the cave man stood in front of his cave with a club in his hand defending his cave against intruders. Currently, congress is refusing to provide the IMF with $18 B .The US is flexing its territorial imperative . As the buble burst, all countries will flax their territorial imparitives and try and protect their own economies. It will be every man for himself. The Asian countries will spread their insolvency to the US and European banks, who are holding their papers to the tune of $275 B. Notice that I have not mentioned South America ,Russia , Canada and Australia who has begun to sink economically and are in fear of a major depression. Enough for today, God bless.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:33
John Disney__A (Rand Fall) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - For Goldfevr
No political/social component..
1. Rand was targeted by a hedge fund.
This has caused most damage.
2. Planned replacement of Stals by
Tito Mboweni rumour MAY have also
been in the market .. Business here
seems to like him .. I really think
he is a fat jerk.
3. Maybe some pre-election nerves.
4. In actual fact the rand has only
fallen a bit worse than the Aussie
dollar.. Do you suspect social/
political/revolutionary developments
down under.
5. Some of the damage may have resulted
from BOE selling rands in revenge
for drubbing of English Cricket
team by RSA ..
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:33
6pak (We Need A QUIET and earnest discussion @ Revaluation of SOME Gold Reserves - Swiss Solidarity?) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - July 5, 1998
Swiss appeal to U.S. on Holocaust sanctions
ZURICH, Switzerland ( Reuters ) - The Swiss president appealed to Washington Sunday to block boycotts threatened against Swiss banks over Holocaust-era assets, amid fears such sanctions might provoke a tit-for-tat trade dispute.
Such actions, designed to force the banks to settle Holocaust-related class action suits, are seen as risking a wider boycott of more Swiss companies with major business interests in the United States.
Cotti said the Swiss expect a response from the U.S. government to demonstrate it is aware of its international responsibilities and will block steps like boycotts.
Switzerland also has proposed setting up a Solidarity Fund that would use money from a revaluation of some gold reserves held by the Swiss National Bank.
The Fund requires Swiss voters' approval. Some believe the present mood, soured by the latest impasse over banks, hurts any chance of the Fund's passing.
We need a quiet and earnest discussion. Further meetings would also be desirable with senior representatives of the U.S. government, Borer said.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/SWISS-HOLOCAUST-SANCT.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:27
Mtn Bear (SE) (NYPost Today!!) ID#347267: - http://www.nypost.com/news/news.htm
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:25
par (Squirrel(Freedom-how bad must it get........)) ID#222128: -
Oceania - The Atlantis Project the Atlantis project is dedicated to the goal of establishing a new country named Oceania. this country will be dedicated to the value of freedom. www.oceania.org thanks Bart and everyone else at this wonderful site from a long time lurker
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:24
Mtn Bear (SE) (Brazil's Auto Industry) ID#347267: - Can everyone hear that giant suckin' sound?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:20
goldfevr (Mtn Bear @ 17:14 - NY Post article/url) ID#434108: - Daer Sir, Would you be so kind as to include a date,
for this article, from the NY paper/site.
Thanks. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:14
Mtn Bear (SE) (Swiss Banks Blackmailed?) ID#347267: - US State sanctions against Swiss Banks.
http://www.nypost.com/news/3909.htm - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 17:04
goldfevr (the sons of liberty - last nite's TV show (- on CBS)(7/4/98)) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - On chan. #8, CBS, San Diego, CA, last night, 7/4/98,
there was this great ... 'impending-revolution' ... show/broadcast..
originating from -
.....from ( ?: ) Rysher Entertainmnet, Inc.,
and 'Salem College' ( -? ) ..
and the 'Winston-Salem Institute' ... ( -? )
I heartily recommend that all kitcoites..
see this broadcast, or video-thereof, if it is available.
I do not recall it's exact title, but it was a powerful,
wonderful... tv-broadcast --....it was a
.... 'capture'...or - depiction/portrayal.... or
informative/historical rendering ( -show ) ....
of the early revolutionary days in the U.S. ...
the early days of 'freedom's momentum'...building...
... in the time of the 13-colonies in No. America,
and in the time of ... 'Ben-Franklins'...
and others -- such as he...
You might contact your local CBS affiliate for more information. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:59
ChasAbar__A (Appreciating bills?) ID#340344:
Copyright © 1998 ChasAbar__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Currency, that is...
A five-dollar bill will never be worth more than ten. A ten will
never be worth more than a twenty. However, the larger the denomination of your currency, the more you may feel forced to buy stuff that you don't want, just to use up the balance especially if the vendor
has the por favor, no hay combio bien, sorry we do not make change sign displayed. Coinage... well, I am recalling an incident I had in France
when, upon counting my grocery-store change, I told the French-only
speaking clerk in my very poor French language, that the amount was not
correct. Upon seeking translation-help from several other patrons,
she finally told me escoubidou, ( or ) it is nothing. I think vendors will gladly accept your coins, but I doubt that they will ever offer
any back to you. That vendor will use the coins sparingly, only when
he must, to avoid ever over-paying. With that thought, I conclude that
the smallest currency denominations, plus the larger coins, will most
certainly be more valuable than an equal face value amount of large
bills. I am starting to accumulate a few $1.00's. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:58
OLD GOLD (Calling RJ) ID#242325: - EJ: Someone like RJ might be able to provide us with more details about this European bank buying.
BTW: reading between the lines of his latest MONEX commentary, seems he does not expect POG to drop much further. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:54
chas (ChasAbar re rocks) ID#147201:
Copyright © 1998 chas/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Chalcopyrite ( copper iron sulfide ) will oxidize some and look almost exactly like gold. For a quick eye exam-1 ) take it out in the sun and if you can get a 10-16 power eye loop, focus on the suspect. Then take it to the shade and do the same. While focused, turn the piece slowly in both sun and shade- if it is gold, the sheen will not change. If it is a pyrite. the sheen will go dull. See if the suspect is flat or cubic or if it is stringy. Burnished chalcopyrite has a more brassy look and gold is more buttery. You could grind up the rock and pan it. If it is gold, on a careful wash by with water it will habg behind. If you want to mail it to me, I'll verify without harm and mail it back. Charlie
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:53
OLD GOLD (Amazon) ID#242325: - One of my major investment tenets -- Never short a surging high flyer just because it is ridiculously overpriced. It an get even more overpriced real quick. Hell Amazon was wildly overpriced at 70 and look at it today. Who is to say it won't go to 200 before collapsing/
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:42
goldfevr (Chas_Abar @ 16:30) ID#434108: - All true gold....
is invisible. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:42
James (How would all the GBs cope without Canadians--Bart provides this great forum) ID#252150: - & the UBC site is an invaluable source for currencies.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:38
goldfevr (Squirrel's 13:48...& ...) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - My sincere-sentiments,
and basic-inclinations,
and survival-instincts....
are exactly aligned with yours, my dear Sir, Squirrel.
And yet....
How 'do' we get 'there'... from ..'here' ...?
Who was that pretentious, would-be 'guru' who said:
'the answer is in the question'...?
For, what if there is no 'there'....?
What if there is only, always.....'here'...?
What if the carrot at the end of the stick...is...is... 'missing' .
What if... it just isn't there.
What if it's just a mirage?...a projection?
...an anticipate/projected....mind-created .... fear ?
We'd best have a few gold & silver coins in our pockets,
and in our hearts ....
right now ....
......wouldn't you-think?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:37
gagnrad (Tony Brown interviewed Andrew M. Gause on today's show!!!! Major Implications) ID#43460:
Copyright © 1998 gagnrad/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Tony Brown, America's number one Black news analyst/talk show host interviewed Andrew M. Gause. On the 5/7/98 edition of the Tony Brown Journal, the Public Television show which defines mainstream Black political thought, Tony was very receptive to talk about the Federal Reserve system, the national debt and the conjecture that the US will undergo an hyperinflation in the next 1 1/2 years. Also discussed was Mr. Gause's book, The Secret Nature of Money, Mr Gause's recommendations for implementing a hard money system and his high regard for gold and silver as an investment. IMHO
Standard disclaimer applies. Here is an URL listing the book, which I've never read. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0965658902/002-8280546-3635648
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:37
EJ (OLD GOLD: Good point. I'd assumed that if they were buying in sufficient) ID#45173: - quantity to be noticed, that it was gov't not private banks. If you're right, that's even more significant. I wonder how we might find out?
-EJ - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:36
Goldteck (Brazil's once-pastoral state of Parana is using a courtship with the auto ) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Sunday, July 5, 1998 Source: Salomon Smith Barney GYRUS
Copyright Los Angeles Times
Plowing New Fields
Brazil's once-pastoral state of Parana is using a courtship with the auto industry to reshape its economy. It's all part of the nation's push to become a top-tier global player.
By CHRIS KRAUL, Times Staff Writer
URITIBA, Brazil--A Dodge Dakota pickup truck will roll down Chrysler's assembly line near here Tuesday, inaugurating a $315-million plant and launching a new industrial age in this once-pastoral south Brazilian region. It is the first of three car factories going online here in coming months and is a milestone in the remarkably rapid economic development of a part of Brazil better known for coffee, soybeans and bureaucrats.
By offering an array of incentives and leveraging Brazil's newfound economic appeal to foreign manufacturers, the state of Parana has attracted some $12 billion in investment since 1995 from auto makers such as Chrysler, Renault and Volkswagen/Audi, as well as other industries such as dairy, carpet and wood products.
It's part of an ambitious plan spearheaded by Gov. Jaime Lerner to transform Parana's agrarian landscape into a more diversified, technology-based economy, lessening a reliance on agriculture that made it a perennial hostage to bad harvests and mercurial commodity markets. Its measure of success also illustrates Brazil's fever for investment as it tries to join the top tier of global powers. Second only to China in direct foreign investment last year, Brazil is pointing the way for all of Latin America in shaping broader-based economies.
To get there, Brazil is trying to exploit the globalization pressures on the world's major auto companies, which increasingly feel the need to leave mature U.S. and European markets to pursue sales in foreign lands where growth rates are high and car ownership is low. The auto industry has been a force in Brazil since 1919, when Ford Motor became the first manufacturer to launch operations, assembling the Model T here. Most of the world's giants, including General Motors, soon followed. In fact, Volkswagen and Fiat, which each have huge Sao Paulo factories, are now the leading suppliers, with 25%-plus market shares, followed by GM with 21% and Ford with 14.5% After two decades of inflation and instability that made its market unattractive, Brazil is now at the top of any globalizing car company's expansion list: With 19% annual unit sales growth since 1992, it is one of the most dynamic car markets on Earth.
But the nuts and bolts of economic development depend on local leaders such as Lerner, an architect and planning innovator who was once Curitiba's mayor. In the bitter competition with other Brazilian states, he's offered free land, tax breaks and vocational training, even equity dollars, to attract jobs and establish an industrial base in his state.
What better way to achieve an economic breakthrough than to create a mini-Detroit in your own backyard, an instant auto industry? That's what is happening. In addition to the three auto powerhouses, Curitiba and environs are getting dozens of auto suppliers--giant firms such as Dana Corp. and Detroit Diesel Corp. All told, the area will have about 12,000 auto workers by 2001. Though the bulk of Brazil's auto industry remains focused in Sao Paulo, this region could be churning out 20% of all new Brazilian cars, trucks and buses within three years.
I'm not saying we're a model, but we're a good reference point, Lerner said. Curitiba isn't the only city attracting auto factories. Porto Alegre to the south in Rio Grande do Sul state is getting major new GM and Ford plants costing more than half a billion dollars each.
But Lerner's state has had more than its share of success, selling the auto companies on the state's favorable geography, large work force and quality of life. He's framed it as a vantage point from which they can attack not only Brazil's booming car market but also the entire southern half of the continent.
The sheer speed with which Chrysler, Renault and Volkswagen/Audi are establishing operations here recalls the similar rush by Japanese auto makers such as Honda, Nissan and Toyota in erecting factories across the Midwestern United States during the 1980s.
Local critics complain that Lerner's program has been too successful, as evidenced by the increased traffic that is clogging highways and by a rising cost of living--especially rapidly escalating housing prices--that plague the citizenry.
Chrysler's plant, which will employ 400, and the Renault and VW/Audi facilities, which will each employ 2,000 or more, are on the outskirts or in the suburbs of Curitiba, a city of 1.5 million, a clean and orderly urban center surrounded by mainly farm communities.
It will be a bit crowded with the other manufacturers here, but a great opportunity for us, said Pierre Poupel, Brazilian head of Renault of France, which was the first auto manufacturer to commit to Curitiba.
Continental Tire, Sweden-based food processor Tetra Laval and Belgian carpet maker Baulieu are also building major factories in Ponta Grossa about 70 miles from here, investing a combined $200 million.
Cognizant of the risk of undermining its quality of life, the state has begun diverting new industrial arrivals away from the Curitiba metropolitan area, said Clemente Simiao, a Parana state economic development official. The Brazilian government also has taken steps to address another fear: that the country could be used as no more than an industrial way station or source of cheap labor to assemble imported components. It requires all manufacturers to meet 60% local content levels by the third year of operation or face onerous tariffs. That law, which means 60% of any product made and sold here must be Brazilian-made, is why auto suppliers are locating in and around Curitiba. Lear Seating of Southfield, Mich., chassis builder Dana of Toledo, Ohio, paint supplier PPG Industries Inc. of Pittsburgh and engine maker Detroit Diesel are just a few of the dozen or more Chrysler suppliers here.
Opposing politicians also express the fear that the state is giving away too much to lure the auto factories. One of the most controversial carrots: a four-year deferral of the 17% state taxes typically levied on manufactured products. Cognizant of the risk of undermining its quality of life, the state has begun diverting new industrial arrivals away from the Curitiba metropolitan area, said Clemente Simiao, a Parana state economic development official. The Brazilian government also has taken steps to address another fear: that the country could be used as no more than an industrial way station or source of cheap labor to assemble imported components. It requires all manufacturers to meet 60% local content levels by the third year of operation or face onerous tariffs. That law, which means 60% of any product made and sold here must be Brazilian-made, is why auto suppliers are locating in and around Curitiba. Lear Seating of Southfield, Mich., chassis builder Dana of Toledo, Ohio, paint supplier PPG Industries Inc. of Pittsburgh and engine maker Detroit Diesel are just a few of the dozen or more Chrysler suppliers here.
Opposing politicians also express the fear that the state is giving away too much to lure the auto factories. One of the most controversial carrots: a four-year deferral of the 17% state taxes typically levied on manufactured products. That incentive comes on top of a major break the federal government has given the car industry by cutting the sales tax paid by consumers who buy low-end subcompacts called popular cars that typically list for about $10,000. Those cars account for 60% of all unit sales in Brazil. The measure, part of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's economic recovery plan dating from 1994, is credited with helping kick-start Brazilian car sales after the country's long, hyper-inflationary dark spell. The auto industry is worth accommodating because it produces such a lengthy chain of favorable economic impacts beyond the direct jobs it creates, said economist Paulo Levy of the Institute of Applied Economic Research in Rio de Janeiro.
The car industry has strong backward and forward linkages--backward in the production of auto parts . . . and forward in the sales, service and repair sectors. That makes autos very important as employment creators, Levy said. All told, Brazil's auto industry represents 12.3% of total industrial output, reflecting the industry's unusual importance here, said Mauro Schneider, an economist with ING Barings investment bankers in Sao Paulo. In a country where rail and ocean transport are surprisingly underdeveloped, trucks, buses and cars have had to pick up the slack in moving goods and people around the country, Schneider said. Auto-based industrial networks have long been recognized as one of the most intensive technology producers a local economy can have, because producers must operate efficiently on a large scale in order to gain access to different markets. That benefits the host economy because, to achieve that efficiency, car companies must employ leading-edge technology, which in turn leads to higher productivity and real wages. In addition to the lure of the financial incentives, Chrysler sees the city of Curitiba, with its young and inexperienced work force, as a perfect laboratory for new cost-saving manufacturing processes involving just-in-time deliveries of modular components. Chrysler's plant, which will produce 40,000 Dakota pickups initially, will be the first in history to receive rolling chassis from supplier Dana. They consist of frames with axles, wheels, gas tanks and other components already built in, saving Chrysler the time and cost of assembling them. Much as the Japanese did in the United States, Chrysler has purposely hired young workers--average age 23--with no manufacturing experience so it could train them in the team methods that give line workers more authority, plant manager David Elliott said.
The traditional Brazilian work force is very hierarchy-driven, in which workers do only what they are told. It's an 'I'm not supposed to think' type of mentality, Elliott said. Our philosophy is different. Of course, Brazil isn't the only car market attracting big dollars. So are countries such as Mexico, China, Argentina, Turkey and India, which, combined with Brazil, will penetrate 47% of the world's vehicle sales growth through 2010, according to Mark J. Rowen, an auto analyst with Salomon Smith Barney who recently completed a study of the global auto market. But because of its exploding consumer economy, Brazil--despite the current slump produced by October's currency crisis and ensuing recession--is seen as the best near-term opportunity, said Nicholas Colas, Credit Suisse First Boston's auto analyst. Brazil is an emerged market, as opposed to an emerging one like China's, which, while potentially huge, is still an agrarian-based economy with low incomes, Colas said. Maryanne Keller, an auto analyst with Furman Selz investment bankers in New York, said Brazil represented GM's most profitable market in the early 1990s, although there is no guarantee that Brazil or any other foreign operation will always wear that mantle. Global exposure has brought greater balance and so, hopefully, the opportunity to capitalize on markets that are expanding while others are contracting, to create vehicles that can be sold in many countries and therefore create economies of scale in product development, Keller said. Meanwhile, the thirst for export dollars is great, and Cardoso's tax incentives for auto manufacturers to export seems to be working. Twenty-five percent of the 2 million vehicles made in Brazil in 1997 were shipped overseas last year, mainly to Europe and Argentina. And the export tide is rising; the dollar value of auto exports over the first four months of 1998 totaling $623 million was 2 1/2 times the export value for the same four months last year.
So far, Brazil has not been a significant source of vehicles for the U.S. market, unlike Mexico, where GM, Ford and Chrysler are accused by labor groups of exporting U.S. jobs. And GM and others insist their main objective in building or expanding Brazilian plants is to serve the Brazilian market. Which can only get bigger. Even after several years of booming sales, per-capita car ownership is still low in Brazil, fewer than 10 cars per 100 citizens, or 10% penetration, compared with more than 100% U.S. penetration, according to the Sao Paulo office of the A.T. Kearney market research firm.
Brazil is still behind, said Kearney's Rogerio Aun.
The world's leading auto producers, in estimated 1997 total units, including cars and light trucks.
Rank, Country, Estimated 1997 total units, in millions
1. United States: 12.0
2. Japan: 10.8
3. Germany: 4.4
4. France: 2.7
5. Canada: 2.5
( tie ) Spain: 2.5
6. Brazil: 2.0
7. Britain: 1.9
8. Italy: 1.8
9. Mexico: 1.2
( tie ) China: 1.2
Source: Salomon Smith Barney GYRUS
Copyright Los Angeles Times
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:34
EJ (REPORTS OF MILLENNIUM BUG BYTES ARE ON RISE) ID#45173: - http://www.nypostonline.com/070498/business/3862.htm
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:31
James (AKAU@I hope you have better luck shorting AMZN than I had. I think I'm really) ID#252150: - losing it & am thinking of buying Netscape tomorrow. I have this crazy idea that it will double in a few months.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:30
ChasAbar__A (Rocks) ID#340344: - friend of mine just came back from hiking in the Sierra. He brought back a couple of small rocks with what looks like visible gold.
Is there an easy way to check, given that I know nothing about it.
Please advise. Thanks. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:25
goldfevr (Bill2j's 16:14 & ... 'cash-less youth') ID#434108: - oh.... to be young again
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:20
OLD GOLD (CB Gold Purchases?) ID#242325: - EJ: You may be mistaken about European CB gold buying. That Reuters piece mentioned European BANK buying, This could mean private commercial banks buying for private clients or their own accounts.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:14
Bill2j (@Mtn Bear) ID#259400:
Copyright © 1998 Bill2j/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Nah, I wouldn't worry too much. The only reason the eyebrows were raised at all is that so few people carry or use cash, especially the younger generation. I have 21 employees, most of them young. I pay them at 5:00 on monday. They stop at the bank and put their whole check in. The next day they write checks to get lunch. They go the ATM machines 2-3 times a day and make small withdrawals. I have seen some of them write checks for $1.25 to get a pack of cigarettes. Long and short of it is with the banks though is that they only make note of large sums, say $10,000 or more. The only reason I am sure of that is I am friends with a banker ( god, that hurt to say that ) and he told me the underground economy is so large and pervasive that the feds only worry about the drug dealers and the big tax evaders. If you bought a $30,000 boat and paid cash I am sure that would raise some eyebrows but not the litte stuff. I am amused by all the talk about using gold for money. Young people nowadays don't even use money for money. I have three children and all three of them do not use money for anything. They write checks for anything they can or use credit cards if they can't. If I took the first 100 young people I found in the mall and took all their cash off them I doubt if I could buy lunch at Micky D's.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:14
Mtn Bear (SE) (Cuzzin Grizz) ID#347267: - Thanks, yu maybe right 'bout the synthetics... Sharefin said somethin ( this am I think ) about small bills appreciating. Re trade, my primary trade items are 12 ga. shotgun shells and .22 LR cartridges.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:12
tolerant1 (ALBERICH, Namaste'...) ID#373284: - I appreciate the kind words...one thing is CERTAIN...on the 4th of July the IMF was far from my mind...such a conversation on MY lawn would have brought about a heated dialogue to say the least...ah yeah...given the occasion...Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:12
goldfevr (Grizz/Cuzzn MtnBear @ 16:03.. it's ok... you can tell me) ID#434108: - It's ok, Mtn Bear.... you can tell me...
...What with all the suspicion of money laundering and drug
deals your transactions may indeed be tracked. How much have you withdrawn in cash so
far this year? Don't tell me! But might it be high enough to trigger a tracking requirement? ... - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:08
Grizz (Mtn Bear) ID#431366: - Did you say you were withdrawing your funds in $5's, $10's and $20's?
Dem thar are synthetic gold! Like Olestra - synthetic fat - goes right through you ( or your hands ) . - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:07
goldfevr (Grizz@ 15:45 Silky Gold) ID#434108: - Grizz, thanks for the url: could I look 'that' good ..
if wore silk? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:03
Grizz (Cuzzn Mtn Bear - their radar may have locked on you) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Perhaps it would be wise to open up accounts at different banks. Distribute your withdrawals so that no bank sees over $10K. What with all the suspicion of money laundering and drug deals your transactions may indeed be tracked. How much have you withdrawn in cash so far this year? Don't tell me! But might it be high enough to trigger a tracking requirement? My guess is anything over US$10,000 could be looked on as suspicious.
Please be careful. Your idea of small bills is good.
Convert some of it into high value trade items - like razor blades, sewing needles, thread, and wind-up watches. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 16:01
Mtn Bear (SE) (Gold@Grizz) ID#347267: - Ain't seen no synthetic gold hereabouts lately!
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:56
tolerant1 (Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.......) ID#373284:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Sunday July 5, 3:00 pm Eastern Time
Internat'l experts urge action on Year 2000 issue
BASLE, Switzerland, July 5 ( Reuters ) - The Joint Year 2000 Council, an international grouping of private and public sector experts, said countries must do more to prepare for computer problems expected at the turn of the millennium.
In a statement, it said ``the seriousness of the potential consequences of failing to adequately meet the Year 2000 challenges and the complexity of developing solutions to avoid major disruptions clearly demands a more coordinated effort across key industries than is currently underway in most countries.''
It ``strongly recommends'' that all countries develop a national strategy with respect to the Year 2000.
It expected that establishing coordinated national strategies would create efficiencies and accelerate the action necessary to address the Year 2000 problem in the short amount of time that remains before the millenium change.
Governments could help by raising awareness of the potential problems. They could also coordinate efforts between the public and private sectors, ensure major utility providers are ready, set preparation timetables, and evaluate resources which have been allocated to deal with the computer disruptions expected at the turn of the millennium.
The Council is developing a global databank of contacts within individual countries, and plans to publish policy papers on millennium-related topics.
The Council, headquartered at the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , is supported by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision, the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, the International Association of Insurance Supervisors and the International Organisation of Securities Commissions.
Further information on the Council can be found on the BIS's Internet website at www.bis.org.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:55
Mtn Bear (SE) (Amazon @AKAU) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Please be careful fellow Kitcoite!! Swords are sharp on the way up too. Had a friend who shorted Yahoo several months ago using the same rationale; he got hurt badly. IMHO you can make money on shorts once this thing turns without trying to catch the exact top; I say that having already started to use Rydex URSA as a hedge. Just remember this Internet thing is VERY POWERFUL. You are using it to post your messages!
One other thing to keep in mind: Unless you are very experienced, and have deep pockets, be cautious; this Market is now the biggest crap game in history!! Best Regards; Mtn Bear - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:45
Grizz (Gold is like Silk) ID#431366: - Both are anachonisms replaced for the most part by synthetics.
But at least Silk is useful!
http://www.wintersilks.com/
Gold is like Amazon with bid price far higher than intrinsic worth. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:45
EJ (More from Secular Trends in Financial Markets) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Here Bryan Taylor predicts two years ago the political and economic impact of the coming bear stock market. Yes, the indebted yuppy will get hurt, but Government policy will not change to help them because their wages have increased relative to other segments of population. Worst hurt will be the American worker, whose rising retirement and property wealth has countered negative wage growth for nearly twenty years. The retirement and property wealth of the American worker will diminish with the bear stock market. The American worker will put enormous political pressure on the government to change policies to promote wage inflation, such as protectionism, as in the 1970s. We'll have price inflation, increased taxes to cover pension liabilities, and a bear market in bonds. Gold may once again be the only way to keep up. This is not going to happen tomorrow. It will occur slowly over the next several years.
-EJ
--------
Many economists point to the increased competition from relatively cheaper skilled and
unskilled labor in emerging markets as a factor restricting wage inflation, and there are few
signs that this trend will reverse itself. One way of measuring the relative value of labor is to
look at how many hours of work it takes to purchase a share of the S&P 500. This ratio has
risen so dramatically in the past 15 years that even if real wages began increasing, the stock
market would remain overpriced relative to labor. Slower increases in share prices accompanied
by faster growth in wages could bring this ratio closer in line with historical levels. Even if
wages increase, wage inflation alone is unlikely to be the downfall of financial markets in the
future.
The real threat would be more likely to come from a combination of stagnant wages and
decreasing employment due to an inability to keep up with competition from abroad, or a lack of
foreign or domestic demand. Europe has been on the edge of a situation like this for most of the
1990s. There has been no growth in employment in Europe for over a decade because of labor
market rigidities. Whether Europe reduces labor market rigidity and becomes more like the
United States which apparently favors job growth even if real wages fall, or whether Europe
provides a preview for the United States in the next decade depends upon the government’s
policies.
Many economist and financial analysts have wondered why labor has been so complacent in the
United Statesduring the past decade despite stagnant wages. One reason has been that the
burden of stagnant wages has fallen on the least politically active groups—unskilled workers;
however, there is a second reason for this lack of militancy which stems from changes in
financial markets. Although wages have been stagnant, financial wealth has increased. Without
consciously acknowledging it, workers have exchanged current income for future income,
accepting lower wages which increase corporate profits, increase share prices, and the value of
their retirement pensions. At the same time, unemployment has fallen. Lower unemployment and
higher wealth have compensated for stagnant wages, but what if unemployment rose and/or
equity price increases stalled or reversed? Labor could become more restless, demanding that
government play a more active role in labor markets to insure higher wages.
Demographic Changes
Demographic changes, rather than changes in wages, are likely to have the greatest impact on
financial markets in the next ten years. The aging of populations in Europe and in Japan, and
the retirement of the baby boomers in the United States could be an important factor which
triggers changes in financial markets in the next decade. The pension liabilities of government
and the private sector are potential time bombs because of the stresses which they could create
for both the demand for government services and the relative demand for financial assets, as
opposed to real goods and services.
The introduction of the welfare state, first in Bismark’s Germany in the 1890s and in the United
States in the 1930s laid the foundations for demands on government services which could
exceed the willingness of the rest of society to meet those demands. In 1950 there were 16
people working in the United States for each individual receiving social security. Today there
are three people working and when the baby boomers retire the ratio will be two to one. The
pressures which these demands are creating are already becoming evident. Guaranteed federal
welfare programs ended in 1996, and defense spending continues to shrink in real terms. These
changes have occurred, in part, because government transfer programs have squeezed out other
areas of government spending. Social security taxes are now as great as personal taxes. These
demands have contributed to government deficits, higher interest costs on government debt, and
a reduction in the level of direct government services which are provided. Before the baby
boomers retire, the social security programs themselves will have to be attacked or taxes will
have to increase to unbearable levels.
Most individuals can foresee that their real retirement benefits will not be as great as they had
once anticipated. This has increased individuals’ desire to save on their own rather than rely on
the government. Although the overall savings rate in the United States has barely increased, and
baby boomers are beginning to save more, almost all of personal savings currently go into the
stock market. Individuals have chosen to invest in financial assets because they increase in
value.
This provides a perfect example of unintended consequences in financial markets. Workers have
been willing to tolerate low rates of wage growth because this has been accompanied by
increases in their personal wealth as a result of the bull market in stocks and bonds during the
1980s. Share prices increase when corporate profits rise, but one of the primary ways of doing
this is to reduce labor costs. This is little more than a Faustian bargain.
As long as downsizing, free markets, and other measures which are designed to increase
corporate profits increase personal wealth, workers are willing to tolerate low rates of wage
growth. But what would happen if stock and bond markets declined at the same time that wages
were stagnant or declined? The combination of reduced purchasing power and reduced wealth
would end investor complacency. The attraction of free markets and deregulation would end
among many voters. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:40
James (Harry Dent@ROR's kind of Capitalist--He's not greedy & will settle for) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - 50-100 million. He parrots the socialist warm & fuzzy, touchy, feely bs:
Although Dent is hoping to expand his personal wealth into the $50
million-$100 million range, his easy-going manner suggests he has no burning
desire to become super-rich. Instead, whenever he retires, he says he would
prefer to concentrate on philanthropy, principally in education and
environmental causes.
I would like to do something worthwhile for my family and the community,
Dent says. I don't believe in greed.
Yet another sign of his wisdom.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:37
Mtn Bear (SE) (Small bills) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Sharefin, Griz, Squirrel and others: For about three months now I have been moving money out of a money market fund in relatively small amounts and depositing in my checking account at the bank. I go in two or three times a month, and each time I get $200 to $500 cash back in 5's, 10's and 20's, to go in the Yr2000 stash as part of my preparedness regime. I usually go on a busy day when the local shops are doing their banking. Last week I had a teller raise her eyebrows at me and say What are you going to do with all these small bills? I told her I had a lot of business to do at the Flea market this weekend ( F. Market is big doin's around here ) . Now I'm wondering if they are tracking my withdrawals; you reckon I'm paranoid?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:24
AKAU (Amazon) ID#256217: - Amazon ( AMZN ) just added one billion in market capitalization the past two days. Total cap now represents over $6 BILLION. That's a lot of hype built into a company with a book value of $20 million. Personally, I shorted this stock near the close on Friday. Soon the trees growing to the sky will fall.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:23
ROR (TED) ID#412286: - Anyone know when that no nothin' SOB will be back?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:07
goldfevr (6-pak @ 14:08: Chip-makers ) ID#434108: - Thanks for the post; maybe they should go a digging under
lots of rocks....beneath the 'bad news'...
they just might strike...
GOLD !
( The ) June and September ( quarters ) will represent the real low point for the industry
and a more severe recession that people had anticipated, Cowen & Co. analyst Drew Peck
said. I don't need to be digging under rocks to find how bad business is.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:01
chas (Squirrel- How do we get there from here) ID#147201: - Send me an email. No guarantees, but some ideas. cdevoto@abts.net Thanx , Charlie
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 15:00
goldfevr (Grizz & Gulliver & Ft. Knox) ID#434108: - Grizz,
Could we get Gulliver un-tied long enuf to go
check-out Ft. Knox for sure;
or has some other verifiable, 'son of liberty', already
been there, and reported back...
....
that:
Thar'iz-n'deed - gold 'en dem thar hills.. at Ft Knox!
( Virginia asked me to asked you. )
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:55
Grizz (oops - I meant to say) ID#431366: - Yes, Virginia, there is NO Gold in Fort Knox.
Or in any other CB repository.
The BIS is a front for a paper chase
as are all the CBs.
Gold is an antique - worth about $5 per ounce
but bidded up by nostalgic collectors
who are each chasing each others tail.
There is as much air under the POG
as there is in the most overvalued stocks. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:54
chas (John Disney re the Goose) ID#147201: - Excellent deduction. Now days so many are so foreign to freedom that there is no standard. Individuals are usually so dependent that they have no perspective. Only clear eyes and gut wrenching decisions will come thru. Thanx for the post
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:49
Grizz (John Disney - what chaos and anarchy?) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The Chaos and Anarchy we get after Y2K of course.
And then there are famine and drought due the same time.
And the collapse of financial markets and paper houses.
And nuclear/BC terrorism and perhaps war.
And if that doesn't there are asteroids/earthquakes.
Given all of the above actually happens -
The price of Gold STILL doesn't go up!
Because you can not eat it or use it to buy groceries.
See the numerous posts below on concerns about
CBs and governments removing Gold from consideration.
And yes, Virginia, there is Gold in Fort Knox.
Bush & Clinton already paid China for the mercenaries
that will arrive via the Long Beach Naval Shipyard
after we have been softened up by our own missile technology - heck we probably will give them the missiles. This is no different than us giving Washington our money that they return to us with strings attached - strings and strings - like those that were used to tie down Gulliver. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:49
goldfevr (John Disney: Rand fall changes everything.) ID#434108: - How do you see the rand's collapse affecting stocks like ASA,
on nyse.
I've not heard...can you say if the rand's sharp drop
is the result of any recent political/social instability
in So. Africa; or is it just another one of the 'falling dominoes'
.... of paper currencies around the world collapsing,
one by one......or by legions....
Hope you'll take a moment to reply/either kitco post/or e-mail.
Many thanks,
David
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:45
John Disney__A (the goose is cooked) ID#24135: - squirrel ..
I concluded this in 1981 and left the USA..
went to Australia .. Hawke was elected
in 1983 .. I then concluded THEIR goose
was cooked .. came here .. ANC took power
.. Now another goose is cooked .. Europe
cooked theirs years ago .. freedom is
a scarce commodity .. the average guy
doesnt seem to be able to cope with it. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:35
John Disney__A (Rand fall changes Everything) ID#24135: - For TSClaw
Yes .. buying Deeps Harmony Randfontein
West Areas anything I can get ..
Screw $3.25 .. Gold would have to
crash to send it there now .. Rand fall
economics are astounding !!!!
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:24
tsclaw (@ John Disney) ID#327123: - Have you taken a position in Harmony again or are you still holding out for 3 1/2. Just curious. Your moves have been pretty good indicators compared to most.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 14:08
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - July 5, 1998
Chip makers bruised in weak second-quarter
SAN FRANCISCO, ( Reuters ) - U.S. chip makers, hit hard by overcapacity, economic doldrums in Asia and dramatic price cuts by personal computer makers, had a bruising second- quarter, amid one of the toughest years for the industry.
Starting next week, semiconductor makers will begin reporting their lackluster financials, many with restructuring charges due to layoffs, as companies continue to pare their operating costs to cope with the sluggish environment.
Both semiconductor companies and chip equipment makers have announced big rounds of job cuts, employee buyouts and layoffs in the past few months, cutting 30,000 to 35,000 jobs.
( The ) June and September ( quarters ) will represent the real low point for the industry and a more severe recession that people had anticipated, Cowen & Co. analyst Drew Peck said. I don't need to be digging under rocks to find how bad business is.
Last month, Motorola Inc. in Schaumburg, Ill., said it would take a whopping $1.95 billion pretax charge in its second-quarter and cut 15,000 jobs, due to problems in its semiconductor products business, particularly in Asia.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/COMPUTERS-SEMICONDUCT.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:54
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - July 5, 1998
Hashimoto seen backtracking on Japan tax plan
TOKYO ( Reuters ) - Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto Sunday said permanent income tax cuts were still just a debate, dashing world financial market hopes of swift measures to revive the nation's economy.
In a political embarrassment for the prime minister one week before July 12 national elections, Hashimoto was forced to put to rest campaign comments last week interpreted as meaning permanent income tax cuts were possible after the poll.
Hashimoto made the comments Friday, a day after Japan went some way toward answering global demands for action with a plan to clear 77 trillion yen ( $546 billion ) of problem loans through bridge banks that would take over failed institutions.
I never said permanent tax cuts, Hashimoto told Television Asahi on Sunday. I just said we would review the tax system to make permanent reforms.
Of course, I don't think as a result of the reforms, we would end up with a tax rise, but I can't guarantee a tax cut, it's possible it might also be neutral, he added.
The appearance, at least, of disarray was bad news for Hashimoto as Japan heads into the last week of campaigning for an election that will elect half of the 252 Upper House seats.
Hashimoto needs to win half of the seats -- 64 -- to keep economic policies moving and head off an LDP leadership battle.
If tax cuts are implemented, they would likely bring the maximum combined rate for national and local income taxes -- one of the highest in the industrialised world at about 65 percent -- down to some 50 percent, Japanese media reported.
However, it is unlikely the minimum taxable income would be lowered as it would draw fire as benefiting the rich at the expense of the poor, they said.
Frankly I would not be confident lowering the minimum taxable income, Hashimoto told Fuji Television.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/ECONOMY-JAPAN.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:48
Squirrel (Freedom - how bad must it get before we demand it again?) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The masses in America and elsewhere believe we are free. But there is lots of evidence to the contrary. We give our masters the whips with which they lash us. As I watched the fireworks last night I realized that we do not have an oppressive enough government to provoke revolt. And we do not have a remote, across-the-ocean government that can be demonized. Our government has infiltrated every aspect of our lives. Yes, POGO is correct, we have met the enemy and the enemy is us.
We are not as free as we believe and as our founders intended.
Often folks ( including me ) are deluded into thinking we are freer than
anywhere else - that it may be bad here but it is no better anywhere else. The perspective of Sharefin and others is vital to correct Americans' misperception. Is there ANY nation where people are freer than in the US - where they do not despise, hate or fear their guvmint - where their guvmint is a mere shadow of ours - where it limits itself to defense of nation, community and individual - period.
Is there any serious forum out on the internet which discusses the
mechanics of establishing a free nation - likley out of the ruins of chaos and anarchy? All of what I have found so far are extremist nuts who
would create a 3rd world monstrosity even worse that what they seek to
overthrow. All I want is to be left as alone as I see fit.
Free coinage of Gold and Silver are said to be a foundation of democracy.
How do we get there from here? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:45
6pak () ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - July 5, 1998
U.S. corporate earnings slow, reflecting Asia, GM
NEW YORK, ( Reuters ) - The economic turmoil in Asia has taken a toll on profits of U.S. corporations in the second quarter of 1998 although the effects have fallen unevenly across a range of industries, analysts and fund managers said.
They added that the impact of Asia is not so severe as to hurt U.S. companies that are mainly focused on the domestic economy.
I don't think it's going to be a big dent, said Michael Manns, a portfolio manager with the American Express Asset Management Group.
Metz believes the odds are that earnings will continue to be anemic beyond the second quarter, reflecting not only Asia but excess capacity outside of Asia. Capital spending growth will slow down not only in the Aisa but in the U.S. as well, he said.
He said the current lofty valuations of the stock market will come under pressure should the weakness in earnings persist.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/EARNINGS.html
July 5, 1998
Wall Street week ahead - Earnings season kicks off
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - Wall Street's bull run faces its next acid test amid Asia's turmoil this week when second- quarter earnings start to roll in.
Investors will also scrutinize events in Japan after Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto Sunday said permanent income tax cuts were still just a debate, dashing world financial market hopes of swift measures to revive the nation's economy.
First Call said. The GM strike will have trimmed the final results by just over 1 percentage point, Hill said.
Companies due to report this week include Motorola Inc. on Tuesday. The technology giant has already said the second quarter may produce its first quarterly operating loss in 13 years.
http://www.freecartoons.com/ReutersNews/STOCKS-OUTLOOK.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:41
John Disney__A (What Chaos and Anarchy ..) ID#24135: - Grizz ..
there will be LESS. Of course we KEEP
the legal establishment .. a privatized
version of the cops .. and some guys
to clean the streets .. privatised
postal system .. Do you need more - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:40
sharefin ( Mutant Cannibal Biker Gangs) ID#284255: - http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=368610458&CONTEXT=899656007.1838219285&hitnum=381
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:23
Grizz (What do we do if/when there is no national or state gov'ts?) ID#431366:
Copyright © 1998 Grizz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - When we are left to fend for ourselves amongst chaos and anarchy?
1 ) Establish numerous free states within the non-contiguous nation of Aurum - the government of which should have two roles:
a ) national defense - to settle arguments with externals
b ) judicial arbitration - to settle internal arguments.
Dats all folks!
Let individuals, families and local communities deal with the rest.
Blood-sucking parasites ( who want government to force you to part with your labor to support others ) shall be shot on sight ( recognition ) .
DAMN - does it have to get this bad? Can't this freight train be slowed down or run off on a siding? Can't we just get our Gold and eat it too? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 13:08
sharefin (Russia telecom and nukes.) ID#284255: - http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=368581634&CONTEXT=899656007.1838219285&hitnum=340
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 12:44
sharefin (Bank runs - buy gold and silver too...) ID#284255: - http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=368560592&CONTEXT=899656007.1838219285&hitnum=305
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 12:41
sharefin (Banter on bank runs - they're discussing this out there.) ID#284255: - http://x13.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=368560590&CONTEXT=899656007.1838219285&hitnum=299
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 12:23
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349: - One would think so, but the markets are fickle and when it looks like they really ought to be down is just the time they go up. Certainly if the markets were open today it would be a day of bearish sentiments, but tommorow is another day ( well maybe only half a day since they open in less than twleve hours ) .
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 11:50
EJ (Gollum: even a hint of European CB buying is significant, givin that even) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - a few weeks ago we heard that the only problem facing these CBs is the disposition of 11,000 tons of excess gold that France and others have after meeting their euro reserve obligations.
On the topic of Japan, the Nikkei opens in about 12 hours. This weekend, Japan has witnessed waffling and dissent among politicians and bureaucrats. This will throw cold water on last week's 1,500 point rally, and is in fact that market's greatest fear. Here the news is bearish. The Boston Sunday Globe business section has three cover articles: Troubles in Tokyo, The next recession, and After huge gains, blue chips disappoint investors.
I believe that pretty much sets the tone for the coming week.
-EJ - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 11:19
Gollum (@EJ) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - It is hard to say since we don't know if they were buying in their own behalf or in the behalf of some customer. If they were buying in their own behalf, though, we must feel that they thought under 294 was a good price. How could they know this if not that there has been some change in their strategic thinking. It has been a long time since we have seen anything about european banks buying rather than selling gold, even at lower levels. That is why we must atart paying closer attention to lease rates and other variables that the banks are in control of.
A few weeks ago we saw a rally in gold prices when some bank ( Swiss I believe ) bought about 400 tons of gold and we were led to believe it was in behalf of the Japanese although I have my doubts. The rally died after one of those negative central bank news items. Then we kind of lost track of things because of all this intervention business.
Now that things are a little more static again we see another glimmer of european bank interest in adding to their gold reserves.
Perhaps this all means nothing, but it is intrigueing and mighty oaks from small acorns grow. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 11:03
EJ (@All Exerpt from Secular Trends in Financial Markets) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - The whole essay is an excellent read, URL below. We are at the end of one financial cycle. In the next cycle, shall we hear pronouncements that equities are dead?
-EJ
Bryan Taylor II, Ph.D., President
Global Financial Data
A Theory of Long-term Financial Cycles
Why do these secular trends and cycles exist in financial markets? Here is one theory. When a
financial and economic crisis occurs, the government attempts to solve the economic problem
which is depressing the standard of living of many of its constituents. Doing so requires a major
shift in government policies, laws and institutions, shifts in income between groups within
society, and shifts in economic and financial psychology. These changes require a government
commitment to formulate, implement, and stick to new policies even though these policies will
come at the expense of some individuals in society. The new policies can be difficult to implement
because interest groups which have benefited from existing policies have gained influence over
time, and will do what they can to resist change. This is why it takes a crisis to change
government policies. Only when those who had benefited from past policies begin to suffer, and
others see their economic position grow worse in absolute rather than in relative terms, will the
demand for change become overwhelming.
The source of the crisis will change from one political-financial market cycle to the next.
Governments used inflation in World War I, but price controls in World War II to fight the war.
Governments considered unemployment a greater evil than inflation in the 1970s, but the opposite
in the 1980s. At some point in the 1930s, the lack of government intervention began to harm more
people than government intervention itself, while the opposite became true in the 1980s. Just as
investors change their financial portfolios, voters change their demands upon government.
These changes, however, take time. There are three reasons why long-term trends may take a
decade before they exhaust themselves. First, these changes adversely affect interest groups which
benefited from the previous economic and financial policies. These groups may temporarily
reverse these policies bringing into question the government’s commitment to the new policies.
Second, it is not always obvious what the solutions to the old economic problems should be. Some
policy changes will not work, and may cause economic recessions. Third, and most important,
inherent in the new policies will be the unintended consequences which sow the seeds of their own
destruction, and lead the way to new stresses and problems for the economy and financial markets
which require a new set of solutions.
The secular trend goes through three stages. In the first stage, the new policies are introduced into
the economy. Investors who realize how these changes will impact financial instruments will reap
profits; however, it will take time for the new policies to be implemented, for individuals to be
convinced that the changes will be permanent, and for those who benefited from the old policies to
adjust their expectations and behavior. As investors change their investment patterns in response
to the economic changes which are occurring, financial markets will persist in their trends. This
stage corresponds to the bull market phase within the stock market.
During the second phase, the unintended consequences of these policies begin to surface.
Controlling unemployment can lead to inflation. Free markets can lead to costly economic
dislocations. Growth in emerging markets can reduce the demand for unskilled labor in developed
markets. Even though the new policies are still creating profitable trends in financial markets, the
underlying problems and stresses of these policies increase volatility and/or reduce the strength of
the trend. This will cause the prices of some financial instruments to decline, even though prices
as a whole continue to increase. This stage corresponds to the topping out or blow off phase
in the stock market.
At some point, the stresses in the financial and economic policies become so large that they
overwhelm the financial system. At that point, the market crashes. Normally, there are several
corrections within a financial cycle rather than a single crash because the pain of the underlying
economic problems have to become great enough that the government is willing to change the
system rather than patch things up. Reaching this point takes time. This stage corresponds to the
bear market phase within the stock market. At this point, a new paradigm is introduced and the
cycle begins anew.
Let’s see how these cycles have worked since World War II.
The Post-World War II Keynesian Cycle:1949-1972
The pre-war economic and financial environment was one of deflation, unemployment, low or
negative economic growth, unstable interest rates, shrinking international trade and falling wages.
The new policies and institutions introduced after World War II addressed these problems. Bretton
Woods, the IMF, the World Bank and GATT were designed to provide a stable exchange rate
system in which international trade could grow without tariff wars and beggar they neighbor
policies. The Marshall plan bolstered European economies. The Full Employment Act of 1946 in
the United States committed the government to an active role in reducing unemployment while
unions received a greater level of government support. Price support programs were aimed at
stopping deflation. Low interest rates and credit rationing, five-year plans, and other policies were
all designed to foster economic growth. Given investors’ pre-war experience, there were grounds
for skepticism about these policies, but the economic stability of the 1950s gradually convinced
investors that financial markets would not return to the 1930s.
These policies, however, were not without their costs. The biggest losers were fixed-income
investors. During this period, bonds were in a bear market. Small losses in the 1950s could be
tolerated, but when bond prices began collapsing in the 1970s, investment attitudes changed.
Commodity prices and exchange rates were stable until 1970, but the lack of change in prices
created pent-up price pressures in these markets.
The problem with the Keynesian approach was that it was inherently inflationary. Unemployment
was reduced, but wages rose. Gold and oil prices were controlled, but supply fell relative to
demand. Interest rates were kept low, but this reduced the supply of capital to markets.
Nationalized firms provided services and charged fair prices, but they were neither efficient nor
innovative. Exchange rate stability created trade and capital flow imbalances. These pressures
could not persist forever.
http://www.globalfindata.com/august1.htm - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 10:46
EJ (Gollum: Do you have a theory why the CBs are buying gold under 294?) ID#45173: - -EJ
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 10:40
goldfevr (Silverbear@ 10:33: Martial Law ......& 'Chinese Language School') ID#434108: - Sign-up for Chinese Language School now, and avoid the rush.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 10:33
Silverbear (Y2K and Martial Law) ID#290232: - Clinton Y2K speach?:
Due to the impending Y2K crisis, I have decided to postpone elections. They would simply be to disruptive in such a time of crisis. Our main concern must be the children. Due to republican cut backs of the military I have grave concerns that we will have the ability to maintain
order during this time of crisis. In response I have requested the assistance of our allies the Chinese. As I speak, 1 millon Chinese troops
are currently being airlifted into major US cities to help maintain order.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 09:58
Mtn Bear (SE) (Taiwan assured no change in policy) ID#347267: - White man speak with forked tongue.
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/
Go to proper link if this doesn't work directly. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 09:53
Auric (Ersel) ID#255151: -
With a name like Auric Goldfinger, they wouldn't let me within a hundred miles of Ft. Knox! - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 09:33
Carl (Russian miners continue rail blockade) ID#341189: - http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/news/wires2/
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 08:42
ALBERICH__A (Two interesting people) ID#254112:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - First the bad guy: I met him yesterday at a baptism party. He is a former professor for economics in California and works now at the Treasury department. I guess about 38 years old. My wife introduced me to him by tesing me about my intrest in getting lost in analyzing financial markets and forgetting easily the major aspect about it: how to make money.
He knew of course everything about how money is created, about all the IMF activities, about gold, from his career viewpoint. It became very clear very quickly why he got this position at the Treasury Department, and the clearer it got, the tenser our conversation developed. Everything remained polite and friendly on the surface.
Here was the point when he kind of lost alittle bit emotional control. I said: Look at Indonesia. What kicked of the bloody riots? I observed very well that it wasn't Suharto's crony corruptin. It was the IMF imposed demand to raise the fuel prices and the bread prices. I added on: These guys are criminals. They are worse than the local dictators. At this point he yelled back with an angry voice: There shoudn't be any cheap bread at all.
That was it. We were lucky in this situation because of two reasons: first, we got interrupted at this point, and second, tolerant1 wasn't there. Hello, tolerant1, I must admit, I thought of you yesterday, and I think the truth is, I missed you. I enjoy such tense situations. But my wife doesn't.
I also had a visitor who tried to explain to me the concept of Universal Variable Life Insurance. He is a young guy, 29 years old, from Kambodia.
He came to America when he was about 8 years old. He had studied western and eastern philosophy and told me that he couldn't bring together his world of philosophy with the world of financial instruments. I thought about this for a while and suggested to him that the area where the two might meet is the area of finanial and political power.
What is power? how do we force somebody to do something what he/she doesn't want to do?
Imagine you are very hungry and thirsty. I have food and water. But I give it to you only if you listen to my orders. We humans have needs. And evry need can be used to exercise power. If we wouldn't have needs, if we would be needfree like angels, power wouldn't be a phenomenon in human society.
His answer completely surprised me, because I thought I had talked to him too abstractly. He said: Yes. The communists killed my father. We lived in a concentration camp. Three of my brothers died of starvation. We, the three younger children survived. I don't know how my mother got us through that. Now she is running her own grocery store. My two younger brothers still study.
I still don't have a very good handle on what Universial Variable Life Insurence means. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 08:34
sharefin (SCALE AND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE PROBLEM ) ID#284255:
- - http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm199798/cmselect/cmsctech/342ii/st0206.htm#n32
Taskforce 2000 told us that, left uncorrected, 80 per cent of computer systems of all kinds ... and something between 10 and 30 per cent of embedded systems will fail in one way or another
~~~~
From: UK House of Commons Y2k report
http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm199798/cmselect/cmsctech/342ii/st0202.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
US Senate Hearings On Power Grid/Y2K - 80% Chance of Regional Blackouts/Heavy Brownouts; 40% Chance of Grid Failure in 2000
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/news9806.htm#BM980614D
~~~~
From: Roleigh Martin
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/w9798idx.htm - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 08:13
Goldbug23 (International Financial Encyclopedia) ID#432148: - Here is a link that is a good reference and yes, it is FREE!
http://www.euro.net/innovation/Finance_Base/Fin_encyc.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 07:44
Trinovant (Beware of a fall on Wall Street) ID#359316: - Sunday Mirror ( British paper ) Sunday 5th July - Simon Read:
We are worried that the American markets could overheat,
warns Richard Hunter of NatWest Stockbrokers.
The financial problems in the Far East could yet have an
effect on other markets. I advise investors to approach
the US with caution.
His fears are echoed by Alexander Fitzalan Howard, who
runs Save & Prosper's United States Growth Fund.
The full impact of the Asian crisis and the strong
dollar have yet to be felt on corporate profits,
he says.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 07:36
OLD GOLD (Perils of the Dollar Standard) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Perils of the Dollar Standard
Jeffrey M. Herbener
Winter’s economic crisis in Asia was blamed on Ago-go capitalism@ and Acrony capitalism,@ but those explanations don’t get to the root cause. The
Asian meltdown stems from structural defects deep within the world monetary system itself. These are defects that no amount of bailouts, exchange
controls, IMF power, or even U.S. monetary discipline can repair.
Crushing price inflation in Indonesia most dramatically illustrates the monetary dimension. From the summer 1997 to early 1998, the rupiah lost 75
percent of its purchasing power against the dollar and domestic prices for basic necessities skyrocketed. Rice was up 36 percent, cooking oil 40
percent, milk 50 percent, and electricity 200 percent. This sparked runs on stores, a drought of investment, growing exodus of businesses, a collapse
of the banking system, massive layoffs, violence and riots, soaring interest rates, and sinking stock and real estate markets.
The Suharto regime froze prices for basic foodstuffs, mandated wage increases, allowed a few bank mergers, sent troops into the streets to quell
unrest, and suggested a debt moratorium. The IMF pressed Indonesia to raise taxes to balance its budget, adopt American-style bankruptcy laws, and
bail out bad debt to the tune of $43 billion. But this Suharto-IMF onslaught only aggravated a desperate situation by short-circuiting market forces.
If it hasn’t helped Indonesia, what is the point of the IMF plan? It is designed to enforce the international dollar-reserve system deemed essential to
U.S. interests. U.S. banks and companies will be relieved of some of their losses by the massive bailout. But more importantly, the IMF is part of the
attempt to maintain American monetary and economic hegemony by ensuring that the ravages of price inflation stay far from America’s shores.
This is no mean feat considering the massive monetary and credit expansion engineered by the Federal Reserve in the 1990s Aglobal@ boom. From
the end of 1990 to the end of 1996, the Fed used its open market operations to increase the monetary base ( MB ) , which is currency plus bank reserves,
by 55 percent. Currency itself increased 60 percent.
Only a corresponding increase in money demand can forestall price inflation once monetary inflation of this magnitude has been set in motion. But
growth rates of the American economyCnot high by historical standardsChave been insufficient to absorb this monetary inflation and bring about the
current low, and even falling, rates of price inflation. The greater money demand has come overseas as the U.S. has asserted the dollar’s status as the
world’s reserve currency.
The dollar-reserve system of the Aglobal economy@ of the 1990s is the resurrection of the Bretton Woods system without gold. Under the
Agold-reserve@ system of Bretton Woods, each country’s currency had a fixed exchange rate against the dollar and foreign governments could
redeem the dollar at the U.S. Treasury for gold at the fixed rate of $35 an ounce.
The arrangement forced a coordinated monetary and credit inflation among the member countries at a rate determined by the Federal Reserve. Any
rogue nation intent on excessive monetary inflation would be punished by devaluation and domestic price inflation, and the attendant problems now
being suffered by the Indonesians. Just the threat of such a catastrophe was normally sufficient to induce the profligate nation to curtail its liberal
monetary inflation.
The linchpin of the Bretton Woods agreement was the fixed rate of redemption between the dollar and gold. The Fed broke this link by accelerating
monetary inflation in the 1960s to help finance expenditures for the Great Society and Vietnam war. From the beginning of 1960 to the end of 1964,
the Fed increased the money base 3 percent per year, but from the beginning of 1965 to the end of 1970, the Fed more than doubled the rate of increase
to 6.3 percent. The average annual rate of price inflation went from 1.3 percent in the earlier period to 4.2 percent in the latter one.
Recognizing that the monetary inflation was reducing the purchasing power of the dollar sufficiently to make the fixed rate between the dollar and gold
untenable, foreign governments began to cash in dollars at the U.S. Treasury for gold.
When Nixon reneged on the U.S. promise to exchange dollars for gold to foreign governments at $35 an ounce in 1971, foreigners dumped dollars in
anticipation of an official devaluation to bring the dollar’s official exchange rate in line with its, much lower, market-determined purchasing power.
The sudden reduction in money demand brought devaluation and, as the dollars were repatriated, domestic price inflation. By 1973, the dollar had
devalued 18 percent and annual price inflation rates averaged 6.8 percent from 1971 to 1974. As the dollar lost its purchasing power, interest rates rose
to compensate lenders for the reduced value of dollars they would receive in the future. The 3-month Treasury bill rate went from 4.1 percent in 1971
to 7.9 percent in 1974; the 10-year Treasury bond rate jumped from 6.1 percent in 1971 to 8 percent in 1975.
Higher interest rates caused capital values to collapse and the ensuing losses led to bankruptcies and rising unemployment. From late 1972 to late
1974, the Dow fell 45 percent; unemployment rose from 3.5 percent in 1970 to 8.5 percent by late 1975. The Nixon administration responded to the
crisis with price controls, changes in bank regulations and bankruptcy laws, and more Fed inflation.
After increasing the monetary base 8.7 percent per year from 1971-1974, the Fed accelerated the rate to 10.4 percent from 1975 to 1981.But after the
debacle of the first half of the 1970s, it was difficult to convince foreigners to hold more dollars as reserve. Accelerating monetary and credit inflation
by the Fed led immediately to severe domestic price inflation ( average annual rates of 11.2 percent ) , soaring interest rates ( peaking in 1981 at a 14
percent 3-month ) , collapsing capital values ( from 1976 to 1982, the Dow lost 22 percent and stood at 774 in 1982 ) , and higher unemployment
( peaking at 9.7 percent in 1982, a rate not seen since 1941 ) .
This entire scenario is precisely the reverse of the American economy in the 1990s. From 1982 through 1990, the dollar began to regain its status as
the world’s reserve currency. The Fed expanded the monetary base 11 percent per year in the 1980s, but the demand to hold dollars overseas helped
soak up the monetary inflation and the American economy experienced economic growth with low levels of price inflation. The annual rate of price
inflation was only 5.9 percent. But the improved performance of the economy in the 1980s was only a foretaste of the renaissance of dollar dominance
in the world.
American supremacy in the wake of the collapse of communism allowed the Fed to fully exploit the international dollar reserve system. The new
system opened up a vast new vista for overseas dollar holdings. From Russia and Eastern Europe to China and East Asia, the governments of former
communist countries began to soak up dollars to hold as official reserves as they became part of the American, Aglobal@ system. From the beginning
of 1991 to the end of 1996, the Fed increased the MB 9.1 percent per year, while price inflation ran only 3.6 percent annually.
The new regime differs from Bretton Woods in the absence of a link between the dollar and gold. Without the fetter of gold reserves and redemption
commitments of dollars for gold binding it, the Fed has no objective constraint in determining the rate of dollar inflation.
But like Bretton Woods, the new regime depends on foreigners’ willingness to hold dollars and use them as the basis for their own domestic monetary
inflation and credit expansion. Only with harmonized monetary policies can the system survive.
Any country trying to take advantage of the fixed exchange rate of its currency against the dollar by excessive domestic monetary inflation and credit
expansion will be punished, as under Bretton Woods, with devaluation and domestic price inflation.
But therein lies the great danger of the system to the American economy. A rogue nation will be tempted to defend its currency, and stave off
devaluation, by spending its dollar reserves. Any significant disgorging of dollars would threaten to ignite price inflation in America if the dollars were
repatriated. Significant domestic price inflation would, at best, bring a repeat of the 1970s, and, at worst, a hyperinflation.
This danger explains the U.S. interest in promoting IMF austerity policies and bailouts. The bailouts are intended to soften the blow of devaluation and
price inflation. In exchange for taxpayers subsidizing banks and large corporations, and other key beneficiaries of the system, the IMF can use the
bailout money as leverage to impose conditions favorable for the future of the dollar-reserve system.
One condition the IMF has imposed across Asia is for the recipient country to establish an Aindependent@ central bank, i.e., one independent of local
political control, and therefore at liberty to harmonize monetary policy with the Federal Reserve. Other conditions concern fiscal policy consistent with
much lower rates of domestic monetary inflation, ones that allow stable exchange rates between domestic currencies and the dollar: raising taxes,
restricting spending, balancing budgets. The remaining conditions address the hemorrhaging bankruptcies and collapsing financial systems across
Asia.
In the last three years, the system has faced a $50 billion bailout of Mexico, a $57 billion bailout of South Korea, $43 billion for Indonesia, $18 billion
for Thailand, for a total of $118 billion in Asia ( some estimate that it will eventually rise to $160 billion ) to fend off its own destruction. But by
delaying the day of reckoning with bailouts, the international mountain of dollars and debt grows, making the inevitable collapse all the more
devastating.
Will the system be able to prevent disgorging of dollar reserves to fend off Asian-style financial debacles in China, South America, Russia, and a
repeat performance in Mexico? If the euro becomes the common currency of the EU, what will happen if its members replace their dollar reserves with
euros? And if Japan recovers, what will happen if the yen becomes the reserve currency across Asia?
The Fed has overseen the best of times for the American economy in the 1990s, a period of rapid monetary inflation and credit expansion with current
benefits of low interest rates, high earnings, soaring capital values, low unemployment, and steady economic growth. It has come courtesy of
foreigners who have absorbed enormous quantities of dollars and, in so doing, kept U.S. price inflation at bay.
If Fed and Treasury officials seem tired and hypersensitive about their every remark these days, maybe they realize the worst of times must be the
future cost to be paid when U.S. dollar hegemony wanes. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 06:06
sharefin (WindyLake) ID#284255:
- - I've seen some good articles on currency in stress situations.
Saw a recent one where the writer thinks small denominations could appreciate 200% - 600% come Y2k.
Price and availability I guess.
The perception will have ramifications few of us believe.
Wait till next year when the masses get a whiff of panic.
One would be well advised to prepare pre-panic days.
Even if it becomes a non-reality,
And I won't try to pre-guess those odds.
Y2k has better odds of being chaotic
Than gold going to $30,000.
But the one event could well lead to the other.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AllenUSA
99 brown bottles all tied together.
http://x10.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=368545148&CONTEXT=899622531.1229324424&hitnum=254
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 06:03
John Disney__A (Tito Mboweni) ID#24135: - .. has been announced as the new
Reserve Bank Chief when Chris Stals
retires next year ..
He's Black enough .. but is he good
enough
Business seems very pleased .. Im sure
I cant see why .. Ive always regarded
Tito as a total imbecile .. we will
see .. I think rand may fall some more
.. or was this info already in the
market .. Cant see it FIRMING on
this news .. could have been worse I
guess .. Idi Imin .. Mike Tyson ..
Bozo the Clown .. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 06:01
Ersel (Alone again.............) ID#230376: -
Is anyone there ? Auric ...you're probably the Kitcoite closest to Ft. Knox....why not take a drive down there to see for yourself if it has any gold ? I'll chip in for gas !
Regards,
Eddie - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 05:10
WindyLake (@Sharefin) ID#240266: - As squirel and you have stated store food ;maybe one will
need it or it'll be a good story to share in old age.Even the perception
of the enormity of the problem will be a problem in itself. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 05:04
WindyLake (@Sharefin) ID#240266: - Thanks for your response.I'm sorry I mistook the post as your own.
I think odds favour physical gold being in high demand,that being said,
I'm wondering how best to characterise the effects of Y2K on currency
given the tendency to use the currency of the realm? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 04:47
sharefin (To be or not to be......?) ID#284255:
- - http://www.sec.gov/news/studies/yr2000.htm
It is not, and will not, be possible for any single entity or collective enterprise to represent that it has achieved complete Year 2000 compliance and thus to guarantee its remediation efforts. The problem is simply too complex for such a claim to have legitimacy. Efforts to solve Year 2000 problems are best described as risk mitigation. Success in the effort will have been achieved if the number and seriousness of any technical failures is minimized, and they are quickly identified and repaired if they do occur.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 04:38
jims (Hashimoto (JP Prime Minister) throws cold water on tax cut plan)) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - See High Rise's 1:21 post for the moving element behind the markets in the week ahead. Seems the Japanese Prime Minister really didn't mean tax cut. I'm affraid that will pull all the pins out from underneath the US equity and metals market.
The banking bridge plan got a luke warm reception at best. The Yen was holding under 140 on Friday in the hopes the Japanese were going to do something about taxes - and now they aren't The guys who run that government have got to be so in the pocket of the rich who want the game to go on with the same rules that its beyond rational comprehension. What that country and the rest of Asia needs of it are tax cuts to promote spending, a new tax structure on real estate to get sales and liquidation happening and a bad debt plan for the banks that is real. Apparently other bridge banks put together for other financial instituions in Japan for liquidation of bad debts have yet to liquidate one property.
That just about does it for me - gold and silver may tank on Monday if the yen does a slide commenserate with disappointment over this latest policy shift by the Japanese.
The haves and the powerful in Japan have the politicans doing what is necessary to maintain the status quo for as long as possible while they make money as long as possible on the yen/US Bond trade. Those vested interestes the politicans are protecting have no desire to see reform or change and there probably won't be.
This may be the most telling sign that we are headed for a massive recession deflaiton in which gold and silver will not prosper.
Very negative development.
In the bitter end, in the dark of the coming depression, America will reconsitute a bankrupt and paralyzed Japan through a massive reliquification and inflation and that will be the time for gold to rise. That, however is years and may lost fortunes and small savings away. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 04:33
sharefin (The US is the best...) ID#284255:
- - http://x10.dejanews.com/getdoc.xp?AN=368519131&CONTEXT=899622531.1229324424&hitnum=239
~~~~~~~~~~~~
WindyLake
I never wrote that piece,
Just surfing the web and picking the bits out of it.
That piece was/is a bit extremist but makes one think.
It is true that the globe runs on computer interconnectivity.
Break that continuity and you have to rebuild it.
Now if there is no power for a while how are we going to fix it?
Specially if the shops have no stocks - except Squirrels Emporium.
There seem to be more speculations regarding Y2k
Than there is speculations regarding the POG.
And it's going to get worse
As the many catch on.
There are many advocates out there.
And quite a few of them are advocating holding gold.
As the public enter full swing into this mania.
The buying is going to be strong.
Go physical gold - but watch out for paper...
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 04:31
goldfevr (Nick@C@03:27 ::) Ft. Knox's empty larders (?)) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ACCOUNTABILITY is spellled g-o-l-d. Of course they want tohide the truth of Ft. Knox, and everything else in this legalized counterfeiting charade that is shredding civilization.
For if they would/could/cared to admit it: accounting for the
gold ....whether at Ft. Knox, or not, or - no-where...
would.......mean that they had no choice but to get honest
get real
and tell it ...
how it painfullly is....
but why should they do that....?
when they can postpone...
and accumulate...
till another day
with their
printing presses
pumping....humming..... - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 04:03
John Disney__A (Is England the Ointment Fly ) ID#24135: - For Kuston ..
.. I think it only makes sense
for a gold PRODUCER to do it ..
A non gold producer has to come
up with the gold .. IF they tried
to BUY it they would be screwed
good and proper ..
Perhaps the Northern Hemisphere
dreads the idea of gold convertability
for that very reason. England in
particular. Isnt it Eddie George
who frequently leads the anti
gold chorus.
Really puts RSA and Aussies on the
MAP BIG TIME .. Canadians too. Lets
do it !! - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:55
John Disney__A (Me, Mozambique, and Catch-22.) ID#24135: - For Salty..
Remember when Rosarian started the rumour about the
German mucilage gun that would glue planes together
in mid air .. they the rumour he had started came
back to him and he screamed .. My god it must be true.. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:46
John Disney__A (Waiting for Lefty ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - For Brother Oris ..
The Kitco left wing contingent pay no attention
to people who LIVED under socialism and hated it ..
Nothing stops these guys .. pointless to engage them
.. other than in a MIG..
Blooper will always be Bloomer to me .. I always
felt that he thought playing markets was like trying
to take off pretty girls bloomers .. then he confirmed
it ..
Most of the impressive stuff I got on MIGS is from a
documentary called Wings. It is excellent. It has
really interesting stuff .. ie the top gun program
was introduced to teach US pilots to dogfight
when Air Force planners have them conditioned to
stay beyond visual contact and shoot down big slow
bombers with missiles. So Phantoms met MIGs in NAM
and had to scrub all rules as without visual confirmation
missile were shooting down their own planes .. MIG
could also turn much tighter and phantoms unable to
dogfight .. took heavy losses against Vietmese and
maybe N Korean pilots.
Also another good show on the A-10 in desert storm ..
It was to be have been scrapped .. but it saved the
day ..
Watch for this documentary .. it goes on forever. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:42
WindyLake (@Sharefin) ID#240266: - I'm concerned about food and electrical supplies being
disrupted by Y2K problems and am stockpiling food,generators and
gold.I'm curious as to what reasoning you're using when you say that\
two weeks disruption of food,electrical and telephone services
will mean years of privation.Cheers and Regards from here. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:30
aurator () ID#257148: - Crusty
Mozambique eh? That's also what Blanchard of The Gold Newsletter says too.
Auric™
My sister thanks you deeply, she was quite moved. Fantails are heading auricwards now.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:29
kuston (Re: Early morning dreams) ID#273227: - John, That was one of the first questions I posted to Kitco, 2 years ago. Why couldn't any country do it? I still don't understand.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:27
Nick@C (I just did a Yahoo search...) ID#386245: - ...on Fort Knox.
There is F*-all to be found on what REALLY is 'in store'.
What are they trying to hide A very deliberate effort has been made to make sure that NO CURRENT INFO exists here.
Is the gold gone Has it all been moved to New York Does the total lack of accountability on the part of the US gubmint mean they have something to hide
Questions abound. ? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:21
John Disney__A (I love the Southern Hemisphere) ID#24135: - For Salty ..
A brilliant exposition .. By the way How about setting
up the republic of free kitco in Mozambique .. this
way we can have a maid .. I think I can find a land
mine free zone .. otherwise we gotta wear snow shoes ..
Mozambique is worlds fastest living country plus big
shrimps and cashew nuts .. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:14
Auric (PS, Nick) ID#255151: -
Save that writing and post it to Kitco when the time seems right. I am sure it will be read and appreciated. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:11
Nick@C (What would it mean...) ID#386245: - ...if Fort Knox was empty?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:08
Auric (Nick @ C) ID#255151:
Copyright © 1998 Auric/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Thanks for the good word, my friend. The sentiment is fully returned. Yeah, I know what you mean, I've never been one for introspection. That said, there is a time and place for such things. If things deteriorate, as sharefin, Eldorado, Earl, myself, and many others here expect, then we'll see Kitco take on a different tone. The best and worst in people emerge at such times of personal crisis. I look forward to the time when the masks fall and we can learn more about our fellow Kitcoites. I believe it was Earl who said that we are witnessing theater on a grand scale, and well worth the price of admission. We'll watch this together from Kitco, the best seat in the house. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:07
aurator (Knox. Knox. Whose there?) ID#257148:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Crusty
Oh, I agree! I could have expressed that differently, as I was composing that post it crossed my mind and shot off into space. I take it as a given to calibrate in the constant unit of 1 oz gold, just fell into the converse talking.
Here is something else I've been thinking too.
The only *facts* that can be trusted are the prices today and historically. Note that this fact itself may not be true at any one time ( Dont forget Comex screwing the Hunts ) and today's multi-priced market..
Everything else in this game is part fact and part fiction. So therefore my reading consists of both fact and fiction goldbuggery. I maintain a High Fact:Fiction ratio, what I like to call my F*A to F*it index.
I am currently reading a fictional account about the Great Gold Spike of 79/80. This is the account of why the price of gold went mad. It is a story of massive and cynical manipulation, which can only be told as fiction says the fly leaf. The Book is Bullion by John Goldsmith. There are some very interesting ideas of an inside wrought, and I may post about that later, anyway....FORT KNOX
Here is a small exerpt from that book
( In the Washington post ) of Friday July 1974. THere was a report that the Treasury Secretary, William E Simon, had agreed to allow a delegation of Congressamen, to inspect the gold in Fort Knox. .......Tuesday 24 September, a picture of Mrs Mary Brooks, the director of the Federal Mint, standing in fron of a stack of gold bars and grinning. The report, beneath the Picture Quoted Representative Crane as having said The gold is safe. THe gold is here. It also stated that the US Treasurer, Francine Neff, had announced that the bullion would be audited.
It never was, as far as I know.....
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:05
Nick@C (Try again...if a '4' appears...delete it.) ID#386245: - http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:02
oris (John Disney) ID#238422:
Copyright © 1998 oris/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Brother,can we do something to stop those adults
from talking about socialism? Our brother Miro and
me were living there but for some reason we landed
our MIGs in the U.S., although I started to believe
that if I've heard all these latest arguments years ago
I would personally stayed there and kept the USSR untouched..
Soviet Commies could not explain it to me as good
as some guys over here...
If those experts continue to talk socialism, I'll start
talking guns and nukes again...
By the way, why did you call blooper brother bloomer?
Did he sell his gold?...Should be a good sign...
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 03:00
Nick@C (I like touching bottoms...) ID#386245: - Go to the bottom of B.B.s bottoms chart. Would you rather buy at a top
http4://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:57
John Disney__A (Early Morning Dreams ..) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - To all ..
You know the ANC Government ( who we all know of a lot
of Commie rats and incompetent dorks ) are making
representation to the ECB to increase the level of
gold held in reserve.
Have any of the Governments of the other gold
producing countries done this .. Australia.. Canada..
US Dont think so...
Now a wild idea .. Suppose RSA declared it PLANNED
to make the RAND covertable to gold.. It would then
cease GOLD exports and BUY the mine production with
RANDS that it would PRINT .. NOW would the rand fall
with the market KNOWING that in a few years sufficient
gold would have been accumulated to enable
convertability.
I suggest that a gold backed rand would strengthen..
interest rate would FALL from the present 24% level
to more like 2% and the economy would BOOM.
Australia could follow suit.
Then we not only smash the Northern hemisphere at
Rugby and Cricket BUT in the exchange rate TOO.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:57
sharefin (Nick@C) ID#284255:
- - You let me down.
I'd a thought you'd a had a couple of semi's out the back full of Foster's, VB and XXXX.
Ya gotta do somethin come Y2k.
And a man of your talents would be good at trading stubbies.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Forums galore:
http://boards.pathfinder.com/@@i4LdxgYAic88JQKU/cgi-bin/webx?13@^173269@.ee7f8d2>http://boards.pathfinder.com/@@i4LdxgYAic88JQKU/cgi-bin/webx?13@^173269@.ee7f8d2
Even one on gold:
Gold Bugs Vs Modern Economics - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:48
Haggis__A (A Banker joke.............. ) ID#39862:
Copyright © 1998 Haggis__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
A Russian, a Cuban, an American and a Banker are in a train.
The Russian takes a bootle of the Best Vodka out of his pack; pours some into a glass, drinks it, and says: In USSR, we have the best vodka of the world, nowhere in the world you can find Vodka as good as the one we produce in Ukrainia. And we have so much of it, that we can just throw it away...
Saying that, he open the window and throw the rest of the bottle thru it. All the others are quite impressed.
The Cuban takes a pack of Havanas, takes one of them, lights it and begins to smoke it saying: In Cuba, we have the best cigars of the world: Havanas, nowhere in the world there is so many and so good cigare and we have so much of them, that we can just throw them away....
Saying that, he throws the pack of havanas thru the window. One more time, everybody is quite impressed.
At this time, the American just stands up, opens the window, and throws the Banker through it...........
No one batted an eye lid...........
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:35
Nick@C (G'day Auric...) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - You are wonna my favourite all-time posters, mate.Probably cause you work weird Merkan hours and are someone to talk to at ungodly Antipodean time. Plus the fact that you have got a sense of humour ( forgive the occasional extra 'u', mate. Ask Auracious--he knows all about extra ewes ) .
Mate--have you ever written a long involved post---wherein you revealed too much of yourself---then common sense took over and you deleted 1/2 an hour's work. I just did. Was a great post, too. Off-topic---but full of life!!! Kitco is a marvellous beast. We have it all here, mate. Pathos unlimited. Better go, before I get F*ed. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:34
John Disney__A (whats the price of baloney in Zlotys) ID#24135:
Copyright © 1998 John Disney__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - for Salty ..
I find conclusions like a rise in the aussie gold
price usually precedes a rise in the US price
strangely troubling ..
BECAUSE .. the price of gold in ANY currency is simply
the product of its exchange rate and the gold price
in dollars ..
The quote in my first sentence can be translated as
a fall in the value of the Aussie dollar usually
precedes a rise in the US price of gold
If that is true then the same goes for the Rand ..
hooray .. But does it make any sense
That says .. because it becomes cheaper to mine gold..
The price of gold will go UP
Really gee whiz I would never have figured that
out .
PS. England on the rack .. Kirsten got 210,
Kallis 137. Now the fun starts. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:32
Squirrel (Bill2J, the only way I see out of low POG is) ID#287186:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - Minting billions and billions of commonly circulating Gold coins.
Put them in everyone's pocket - even if only a US$20 1/20th oz coin similar to the old US$1 Gold dollar. That way any confiscation idea would reach into everyone's pocket from little kids to little old ladies. It wouldn't succeed, not in America - I hope.
Aurator had a few posts on the idea:
Tue Jun 23 1998 02:35 and Tue Jun 23 1998 07:07
The more I think about it, the more logical it is to form and independant free state populated by the freemen of kitco in noo zilundd?
No country on earth will manage to invade noo zilund. The Maori know that, and so do the pakeha. The NZ Reserve Bank hold less gold than Aurator I am thinking of issuing my own currency
So did Tolerant1
Date: Fri May 08 1998 17:02
tolerant1 ID#31868: Squirrel - I have been toying with the idea ( not joking here ) of writing to the folks at Cuervo. To get them to market the Gold and Silver Sombrero series coin. There could be a little hang-pamphlet on each bottle neck with the offer. Napkins, etc. 10s of millions of people would see it. Revolutions start in bars...
I know I have beat on this idea until the Gold is so thin you can see through it. But I do not wish to let it go since it is the only way I can see of DOING something about the POG rather than just watching the river rise and fall at the whim of the damN operators upstream.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:24
goldfevr (Austr$ & New Zeal $ in ...gold/aurator/URL://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot) ID#434108:
Copyright © 1998 goldfevr All rights reserved - Thanks to Carl, from July 4th, morning; I found my way to this site.
Both Austr. & New Zealand dollars are falling, in terms of gold....
they are among the most rapidly accelerating currencies-- or maybe I should say --
they are among the most rapidly collapsing currencies...
in terms of gold...
in relation to gold..
in exchange for gold
...
A-long with the Australian & New Zealand dollar, a few other
important nations/national currencies, that are/have been -
losing the battle against gold....
with the most accumulating momentum ....
over the last two years...
are:
the Turkish lira,
and
the Indonesian Rupiah
and
the So. African Rand.
In each case/country/currency, there are, no doubt, individual,
unique factors contributing to their flight into gold. And I would not pretend to know what they are, or might be.
Nevertheless, it is useful to ask:
#1. What underlying political/social crisis/upheaval might be contributing to this nation's currency's unfolding collapse,
in the face of gold.
#2. Is their a common thread.. a common factor.. in each national currency that is collapsing in the face of ( -in terms of ) gold values?
From a broader perspective:
of 25 national currencies, plus ECU's & SDR's.... that I copied charts of, each in it's exchange rate basis to an ounce of gold...
all 27 of these paper-money-currencies...
have been falling in value....
in terms of gold...
since the watershed-turning-point period.... of....:
December'97/January'98.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:21
SlingShot (staying up late) ID#105111: - You guys have been on-subject for the last hour or so. Looks like the trick is staying up late ( in my time zone ) . I learn more about gold at these hours. Thanks guys.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:21
Auric (Nick @ C @ 02:13) ID#255151: -
I think you're on to something there. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:20
Nick@C (Now Auracious...) ID#386245: - ...don't go quoting Chinese authors to me...Three Tracks in the Sand was one of my favourite books...
Trouble with your gold going up, mate...is that everything else you own in Kiwiland is goin' down. I'm gonna visit Merka soon...just as soon as I make a squillion to pay the hotel bill... - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:19
John Disney__A (Chilly African Morning ) ID#24135: - For James ..
That's the spirit ..
For Argent ..
That's also the spirit .. eat salad .. ignore
Socialists.
For Slingshot/Robnoel
Life is BRIEF .. Do you want your tombstone to
read ..
Spent lots of time arguing with childish Socialists
in Cyberspace
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 02:13
Nick@C (Jeeeeeeeez Finnie...) ID#386245: - ...I'm gonna go out and buy a coupla pallets of beer...
...and at least die with a smile on my face. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:54
aurator () ID#255284: - Nic_@One_Huang_Lo
Yeah, now what would be real interesting is a plot of Aus & NZ $ against gold. I know Bill Buckler has shown that the Aus$ price leads the US$ price. I wonder if there's any pattern between Aus & NZ?
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:53
sharefin (Nick@C - you've been reading too many articles like this one...) ID#284255:
- - Given that Y2K is gonna cause problems...anybody have any educated guesses as to the duration? Assuming a comet doesn't hit in the interim, I mean. ;- )
Look at it this way....
If you got stuck on a barren new world with a million other folks, how long would it take you all to develope even minimally sustaining agriculture? How many of your million would die before you were able to grow enough food to sustain life? The worst answer is none would survive because the growing time for those crops would be longer than you could go without food.
Now imagine a large city like NYC or LA. Multimillions of ppl all surviving on a section of land that cant possibly grow enough food to feed 1/10 the population in those cities....just not enough available growing land.
So if those cities all the sudden ran out of food, and there wasnt a guaranteed supply due in the next few days, where do they go? They move outward to the suburbs and live off of what you may have.
Now if you stockpile enough food for your family for 6 months, and the drain on that food is doubled by refugees from the city....you now have a 3 month supply and you all starve before you can grow a new
crop.
The worst part about the possible Y2k bug is that it effects so many varied things in all our lives that our present society cant function without.
If the power goes out, how do you work on a computer for the local supermarket to restock its shelves? If the phones go out, it cuts all cities and towns into small islands and you cant order more food. If the banks go out, then your next paycheck doesnt arrive, and you don't work. If you dont work for even two weeks, chances are the place you used to work will be bankrupt.
It gets back to the barren planet analogy.
If you and that million other folks were suddenly dropped there with absolutely no technology or supplies, and your first concern was food....how long would it take you to develope a working TV set or a computer?
I can just hear you guys asking what in the heck is he talking about?
Well if your food supply stops for even two weeks, you will be going out looking for food. Nothing else will concern you at that moment besides food. And while everyone in the world is out searching for food, NO ONE is planting the next year's crop. All the starving ppl will quickly eat up the world's supply of food, and they WONT be concerned with getting the power back on....or whether or not your check was direct deposited into the bank.
Bottom line....if the power goes out for two weeks, it wont be coming back on in our lifetimes. If the phones go out for two weeks, you wont ever be using them again in your lifetime. If the banks/stock exchanges close for two weeks, just about every business that is remotely involved with them wont ever reopen their doors.
If the Y2k bug hits as it is expected to, then your kids and possibly your grandkids will be living in small farming villages and communes, and using food stuffs for barter. They will eventually get localized power back online. They will eventually begin using the phones again. They will eventually develope the skills necessary to repair all the computers and other electronics they might find.
*IF* the Y2k bug hits, it will mean a 60-70% starvation rate worldwide....and chances are great that the ppl who *could* get society back to its current level wont be among the survivors.
If it hits as is expected, there wont be any duration.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:36
Nick@C (Looks like you'll have to plot it yourself...) ID#386245: - tick gold...
then tick NZ$$...look under K for Kiwi... - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:33
Nick@C (Why Auracious is smiling...) ID#386245: - http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot
When the worm turns...the US$$ goes down and all the others go up...how many of our 'Merkan friends will be smiling
How many will own REAL money? - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:31
Earl () ID#227238: - Salty: Thanks for putting up that URL. I missed it on the first go around. A most excellent site for currencies.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:30
tsclaw (@ gagnrad) ID#327123: - Don't take me serious. I did sell all my AU stocks last week but only because I wanted to invest the money in another high risk stock. I've been trading stocks since 1960 and haven't found one this good till now. Just a hunch, but I think I'll be back into AU stock before they move much.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:30
aurator (The earth is OK. No need to panic... we're still circling a G2 star. hooray!) ID#255284: - The earth passed aphelion a few hours ago, looks like we're all heading back closer to sun. Yee Haa.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:26
HighRise (Monday will be interesting.) ID#401460: -
The 4th Qtr could be really bad.
Good Night
HighRise - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:21
HighRise (Asia...looks bad, the party is over.) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - _____________________________________
Saturday July 4, 10:52 pm Eastern Time
ASIA FOCUS-No end in sight for Asia's suffering
By Raju Gopalakrishnan
JAKARTA, July 5 ( Reuters ) - A former millionaire is selling sandwiches on the streets of Bangkok, shop girls in Indonesia solicit strangers after work for quick money and 25 people commit suicide each day in South Korea.
``In the next six to 12 months, I see things getting worse in terms of social instability and people's livelihood,'' said Sandra Lawson, political strategist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong.
``Unemployment is going to continue...and I'm concerned about social unrest in all of the four crisis countries.''
NATIONS WHERE PEOPLE ARE HURTING MOST
These, said Lawson, are Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand -- all nations where until last year a willingness to work was usually the only requirement for a reasonably comfortable and sometimes prosperous life.
WOUNDED STILL HAVE TO BITE THE BULLET
Huge resources have gone into trying to ease the crisis in Asia. The International Monetary Fund has drawn up rescue plans totalling $120 billion for the battered economies of Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea.
But the message from Western government officials, local politicians and economists from the international institutions is chillingly constant -- the situation will get worse before it gets better.
Meanwhile, currencies are depreciating, more people are out of jobs and poverty is increasing.
POLITICS AND POLITICIANS
``If a government is not seen as clean and tells its people they have to suffer while its ministers are getting richer, then of course the people will not be willing to bear the burden.''
ROLE OF ASIA'S ECONOMIC GIANTS
As the crisis deepened this year, the role of Japan and China has given even more cause for worry.
Japan, the engine of growth for most Asian economies, is stalled and its economic problems are multiplying. Giant China, pressured by the fall of the yen, might have to devalue its own yuan currency and send Asia's beleaguered nations on yet another round of competitive devaluations to maintain exports.
``I think China will devalue in the last quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year by about 15 to 25 percent,''
David Folkerts-Landau, global head of emerging markets research at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, told Reuters last
week.
On Japan he said: ``In Asia you have the locomotive country exerting a very negative impact, so the difference
between Japan and the United States in the 1994 Mexican crisis and the 1998-99 Asian crisis is just stunning.
``You couldn't have had a worse financial environment for these countries.''
END OF THE IRON BOWL?
The economic reform and the restructuring that are now inevitable across Asia will bring much pain in its wake.
The suicides in South Korea, the turn to prostitution by Indonesian shop assistants and the millionaire making a living on a Bangkok street are only the early signs.
Now that security is all but wiped out, and it will be years before anything resembling it returns. What has made the situation worse is the relative absence in the region of formal safety net programmes that could have mitigated the suffering.
``Perhaps during a time of growth and full employment you don't think a lot about that ( social safety nets ) ,'' said Brian Atwood, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, during a recent visit to Jakarta.
``But I would suggest that the unemployment that has been suffered in Europe for many years now has not been as serious a political issue because the social safety nets were much stronger there.''
Management guru Peter Drucker sees a more worrying link between Asia and Europe.
``Fundamentally, the Asian crisis is not economic but social,'' he said in a recent interview.
``Across the entire region, the social tensions are so high that it reminds me of the Europe of my youth that descended into two world wars.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980704/asia_focus_1.html
_____________________________________
Sunday July 5, 12:37 am Eastern Time
Hashimoto seen backtracking on Japan tax plan
By George Nishiyama
TOKYO, July 5 ( Reuters ) - Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto on Sunday said permanent income tax cuts were still just a debate, dashing world financial market hopes of swift extra measures to revive the nation's economy.
In a political embarrassment.................
``I never said permanent tax cuts,'' Hashimoto told Television Asahi on Sunday. ``I just said we would review the tax
system to make permanent reforms.''
``Of course, I don't think as a result of the reforms, we would end up with a tax rise, but I can't guarantee a tax cut, it's
possible it might also be neutral,'' he added
``Frankly I would not be confident lowering the minimum taxable income,'' Hashimoto told Fuji Television.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980705/japan_econ_1.html
_____________________________________
7/4/98 -- 7:24 PM
Japan's Planet-B Mars probe roars into orbit
TOKYO ( AP ) - Japan's Planet-B probe to Mars has blasted into space beginning the first effort by a nation other than the two former Cold War superpowers to visit another world.
Once there, the $80 million probe will examine the Martian atmosphere to study how it reacts to solar winds and measure the rate at which oxygen escapes into space.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news101o.htm
HighRise - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:17
aurator (not there) ID#255284: - I mean here
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 01:15
aurator (just ANOTHER chart) ID#255284:
- - Thank you, thank you to whoever first posted the Exchange Rate service URL. I have said frequently that I am too lazy to record POG in NZ$ every day, but I do watch it just have a look at the NZ$ rates, and you will see why the aurator is a happy gabby chappy, My core gold purchases were made in the 3rd & 4th weeks in January, and been salting a little away since then. I remember posting here that I was Frustrated because the darned JM offices were on holiday in the first and second weeks.
That inspired ANOTHER act of kindness from a kitcoite, AuProducer who sent over a nugget from his Alaskan gold mine.
Anyway, point of this circumloquauration is: I have fortunately protected that part of my savings from the NZ currency devaluation.
But, as someone previously noted, Gold is quoted in US$ in the local papers, So this repricing is not obvious to the casual observer.
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/cgi-bin/xrplot - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:40
Myrmidon (CURRENCY DEVALUATIONS) ID#339212: -
The myth that you can create wealth by destroying it:
http://www.oz.net/~veils/veilsv2n4/economicsdevaluation.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:40
Gollum (Twilight zone, again) ID#43349:
- - London--July 3--Gold failed at a short-term uptrend line which has
turned from support to resistance around US $295 per ounce following
Thursday's falls and light producer selling from South Africa was seen as
the rand weakened further against the US dollar this morning, dealers said.
Spot gold slipped from an overnight high of $295.10 and failed to stop
at the 10-day moving average--today sitting at 294.45.
The market hit a low of $293.80 on the back of producer selling before
European bank buying at the bottom pushed it slightly higher to trade at
$294.10-294.60 by late morning, dealers said.
Does anyone know anything more about this european bank buying business? So why do they buy below 294? Do they know something we don't know?
http://cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/2270.1.html - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:39
Selby (Hope you had a great holiday) ID#286230: - Pete: Seems to me that Cromwell wouldn't have had a tri cornered hat anyway--he was a Roundhead I believe.
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:23
Nick@C (While I'm in survival mode...) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - ...here are a few more from our mate Tolerant 1
...................................................
Date: Sun Jun 21 1998 13:28
tolerant1 ( Argent, Namaste' Here are some links I think will give you a solid, well rounded ) ID#373284:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
approach on your way to seeing the eclectic information that is available. I have placed the first item as I find it to
be the most important. I may die, but I will go happy...Gulp to ya..........
http://www.reserva.com/
http://www.waltonfeed.com/
http://w1.2225.telia.com/~u222500171/survivalism/Survivalism.htm
http://members.aol.com/rafleet/survivalring.htm
scroll down on the above link for lots o links
http://www.hydroponics.com/
http://www.securefuture.com/
http://www.idir.net/~medintz/surv_faq/surv_faq_index.html
http://www.survival-center.com/home1.htm
http://emall.com/spice/Wok.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:21
gagnrad (Haggis, you're doing pretty good, you know.) ID#43460: - I just looked at the Australian dollar versus gold graph and its much better than US dollar versus gold. Goodnight. Busy day tomorrow. http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:12
2BR02B? (@mooney) ID#266105: -
I think that's pride Goethe before a fall.
: ) - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:10
Haggis__A (G'Day........) ID#39862: -
Gotta go and find a gold mine...........
My Mothers maiden name was - Murphy. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:07
Nick@C (G'day Kitco mates.) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved - After looking through Sharefin's latest 'survival' URL, I have decided to gather a few of my favourites together and post them here. I suggest you copy this post and save it for a lazy afternoon when you are feeling particularly vulnerable. If you have not started a 'survival' file, then you are doing a disservice to both yourself and your loved ones. The hope is always that 'being prepared' is never necessary. This is not a perfect world, however, so let's just say that you have done your thinking/shopping/training etc. in advance. Then have a good laugh about it in your old age. Who knows? This file may help you get there ( old age, that is ) .
SURVIVAL URLs
http://www.yesic.com/~john/tfiles/
http://www.survival-center.com/foodfaq/index.htm
http://www.survival-center.com/guide/index.htm
http://members.aol.com/rafleet/survivalring.htm
http://www.urbansurvival.com/
Add to this file as you go along.
cheers, Nick. - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:04
Haggis__A (Gagnrad.............) ID#39862:
Copyright © 1998 Haggis__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Is this...............
One of Murphys' Laws, or........
One of the First Principals of International Banking........
It's morally wrong to allow naive end users to keep their money.
Remember, always believe in miracles - you may have to rely on them !
Old Murphy did - he found a gold mine in the middle of the Australian Outback. Thought about it, and said to himself - Na, it would be easier to to go to America, open a printing business, and print US$.
Now, which would actually be easier
Och aye the nooooooooooooooo............... - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:04
Haggis__A (Gagnrad.............) ID#39862:
Copyright © 1998 Haggis__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved -
Is this...............
One of Murphys' Laws, or........
One of the First Principals of International Banking........
It's morally wrong to allow naive end users to keep their money.
Remember, always believe in miracles - you may have to rely on them !
Old Murphy did - he found a gold mine in the middle of the Australian Outback. Thought about it, and said to himself - Na, it would be easier to to go to America, open a printing business, and print US$.
Now, which would actually be easier
Och aye the nooooooooooooooo............... - Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:02
Gazebo (Mooney*..........) ID#432298: - I am a firm believer in fearing the worst and hoping for the best in that gold will escalate. TO THE MOON GOLD!!!
- Date: Sun Jul 05 1998 00:01
goldfevr (Laissez Faire Books - url for Murray N. Rothbard) ID#434108: - http://www.laissezfaire.org/mr6391.html
