Date: Sun May 24 1998 15:16

OLD GOLD ( fear and greed )

RJ: Isn't the fact that investors have become oblivious to risk a key factor behind gold's lackluster performance? Seems to me that when fear replaces greed as the dominant investor emotion the gold market will be NASB

OG -

You and I have always agreed that the individual investor is the key to a gold bull. With the Dow soaring, interest rates low, and the economy humming along nicely, any rally in gold is doomed to be capped off by producer selling.

Yes

Bej wrote: …. Platinum is, I fear, like Gold, dead, especially given the financial conditions developing for most countries. Watch out for those that posit otherwise, most that I follow here have agendas that are certainly not on an altruistic nature.

Bej -

Comparing platinum to gold is useless. Your statement above is entirely groundless.

God’s mathematics and the fundamental laws of supply and demand will cause this true commodity to rise way far, way fast.

RLM -

You must have misunderstood the 295 figure. I hate to say it, but I’m still short gold, and I’m looking for below 290 to cover. Peeled off about half in modest profits at 297 - 298 ( which more than makes up for the shorts I covered above $310 when I got a little spooked ) I will not trade the long side of gold in the foreseeable future. Unless the trade is needed for balance, I will look to platinum for profits.

Gianni Dioro__A ( EJ ) ID#384350: @ Can you grasp the concept of 10 for 11?

Spinal Tap’s amps went to 11……

They did

My generation, my kids, will have other equally difficult, and even more confusing situations to confront. Did we ever really think it otherwise? If we did, why did we read them all those fairy tales about the monsters and evil players when they were kids? Bet you haven't read any in a few years. Every time someone gets a good thing going, someone else comes along and blows it apart or takes it away. A struggle against formidable odds, always. Has life ever been different?

We knew, you knew, it may become our turn to fight. The fight is just on a new playing field. Well, the big boys aren't the only ones who know how to play. Like I said, take heart. The fat lady has been on the Atkins Diet, and she's not piped a note.

Strange memories on this nervous night in Las Vegas. Five years later? Six? It seems like a lifetime, or at least a Main Era - the kind of peak that never comes again. San Francisco in the middle Sixties was a very special time and place to be a part of. Maybe it MEANT SOMETHING. Maybe not, in the long run….. but no explanation, no mix of words or music can touch that sense of knowing that you were there and alive in that corner of time and the world. Whatever it meant…..

History is hard to know, because of all the hired bullshit, but even without being sure of history it seems entirely reasonable to think that every now and then the energy of a whole generation comes to a head in a long fine flash, for reasons that nobody really understands at the time - and which never explain, in retrospect, what actually happened.

My central memory of that time seems to hang on one or five or maybe forty nights - or very early mornings - when I left the Fillmore half-crazy and, instead of going home, aimed the big 650 Lightning across the Bay Bridge a hundred miles an hour wearing L. L. Bean shorts and a Butte sheepherders jacket…. Booming through the Treasure Island tunnel at the lights of Oakland and Berkeley and Richmond, not quite sure what turn off to take when I got to the other end ( always stalling at the toll gate, too twisted to find neutral while I fumbled for change ) …. But being absolutely certain that no matter which way I went I would come to a place where people were just as high and wild as I was: No doubt about that….

There was madness in any direction, at any hour. If not across the Bay, then up the Golden Gate or down 101 to Los Altos or La Honda…. You could strike sparks anywhere. There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was RIGHT, that we were winning….

And that, I think, was the handle - that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or militaristic sense; we didn’t need that. Our energy would simply PREVAIL. There was no point in fighting - on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave….

So now, less than five years later, you can go on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost SEE the high water mark - that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.

HST - 1971

the L.A.Times..........Go Gold.....soon.....tick tock..tick tock...

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/BUSINESS/t000048669.html

The fat lady didn't sing yet. A new generation is growing with the internet as its primary source of information. Not the TV. Take heart.

We are seeing a huge contraction world-wide in salaries and payscales, standard of living, as the world adjusts to the opening of the East, of Russia, of India, where skilled, highly-educated engineers are available for a song, and will be for the forseeable future. It has already gone on for nearly a decade, but I think it will be several more years before it is finished. We must be careful not to blame this effect on other forces.

There is a separate situation of CEO's making rediculous salaries, such as when the CEO of Nike earned more than an entire Asian factory making shoes after closing one up here in the Pacific Northwest and moving the manufacturing abroad. This is not what I'm discussing here, just engineers and execs, ordinary people and how they live, where they're going. I saw a standard of living in Europe that doesn't begin to compare with our own, despite our corruption and angst!

Microsoft and several other large US corps now have development groups in India. It is Microsoft's largest outside the USA. This is part of the rush to lower cost structure as they see the results of Asian slowdown impacting their markets. Eventually, skilled labor in Asia must nearly equalize in cost that in the US and Europa. We haven't seen the end of this. In Europe, also, we see the affect of low-cost competition from Spain and Europe going head-to-head with France & Germany. In busses and trucking, for example. The Italian driver was working for around 40% of the German, the equivalent of 8DM compared to 20DM for the German. They earned the right to compete on an even playing field back in 89 or 90, with obvious results. Has this settled yet?

It is possible that you are feeling the effects of currents that are greater than you think. What you have experienced in the US is what I am also hearing from abroad. It is a ratcheting-down of the standard of living of the middle-class. It is a shame. I am studying it with the sole intention of helping others to avoid the pit. Happily, I am on high ground, but for practical as well as altruistic reasons, want to bring as many people as possible up here!

A large part of the problem, both here and abroad, is people's tendencies to keep spending after their real income goes down, at the higher level to which they were accustomed. They spend into debt and we get a tremendous crisis when it happens a million times. Like our current bankruptsy rate.

In the US we have an amazing amount of refugees, economic if not political. We have, especially in California, a number of foreigners that is astonishing. I have heard, from teachers, that as many as 1/2 of all families in this state have another language as their first. And many languages are involved. This presents a chaos and the results in our education system are obvious. It is, nevertheless, our strength. These people are the salt of the earth, and we are blessed to have them. In the end, it will be our shared belief in our systems and freedoms, that will win the day.

When we all lose is when we attribute problems to wrong causes.

To me it seems that he gets all of his research info straight from Looters network. In his statement The preponderance of the mines 1,200 jobs held by local residents are menial suggests to the reader that they are nothing more than slave labor. Everything he wrote is a half truth. It is plain to see he is trying to get the readers to stay away from gold and gold mining shares.

But what should we expect from the New Era Hyping Clinton Loving Mutual Fund Pushing Radical Left Wing Ultra Liberal Debt is an Asset L.A. Times? ( By the way, the only reason I get the Sunday delivery is for my dog to do her stuff on it! )

You are calling me a liar. I can only say that you are either just plain ignorant, trying to generate alot of anti-socialist truths from the other members of this forum on a slow day, or another greedy gus who wants to get his hands on OPM. Whatever, I am out of this discussion. Your statements are so blatently false, I won't honor them with a response.

professionals take place in a camp-like setting?

Those photos just raised more questions. Who took them? Why would some passer-by take those two photos? Without some sort of documentation it just goes into the rumour basket. What's more important is why are we seriously examining and discussing this? The level of disbelief people have about ANYTHING that becomes the official word of the USG is almost unbelievable. Start with the Warren Commission Report and come forward through the Johnson/Nixon years. It's just downhill from there.

The internet is already leading the way - look at the influence of the Drudge Report! Already the heirarchical system of information control has exploded. Even if the internet stopped tomorrow, there is so much information transfer already, stored in millions of homes, there's no going back. Remember back in the 80's, when about 50 corporations bought out and achieved editorial control of virtually all the newpapers in the US? Harharharharhar! Build a better mousetrap, get a better mouse!

http://forums.stockhouse.com/forums/forums/viewmessage.asp?AutoNumber=97945

http://forums.stockhouse.com/forums/forums/viewmessages.asp?AutoNumber=97946

this is not what your looking for perhaps, but it is a pothole along the same road. alot to do w/FEMA as well

EJ -

Excellent article about derivatives.

The quote that struck me was, Whatever you call them, derivatives have been the source of immense profits for investment banks and massive, often little-understood, risk for investors.

There is nothing wrong with risk, as long as one completely understands the risk. The problem I find on Wall Street is that there is NO risk. Ask anybody. They will all tell you everything is rosy……. What, Me worry? Brokers give very little accurate information on the downside risk, and clients pay little attention to that.

The following pertains mostly to metals and I use the term you generically:

Investing in these markets is like a poker game. First rule is NEVER invest more than you can afford to loose, and I’m not talking about retirement money or the kids college fund either. If you want to trade the metals, apart from taking delivery for long term holding, use only speculative money. Investing more than you can afford to loose is playing with scared money.

In poker, you bet the hand, not the money. If you got the hand, you call and raise. If you already have it all on the table, your judgment will be clouded by the amount you stand to loose rather than the hand you hold. If you are in over your head and the market moves against you, unless you can afford to loose what is on the table, decisions will be colored by the money not the market.

I work a great deal with leverage and leverage is a double edged sword; it cuts both ways. People should always be made aware of the risk, and understand it completely. If one can only trade one side of the market, all trading decisions will be, where is the bottom? and, Where is the top?. The market moves two ways, trading only one side of it cuts you out of 80% of the game. The real money is to be made in that grand and glorious middle. Toss out the top 20%, same with the bottom 20%, just let me trade that beautiful 60% in the middle. Indeedy yes.

Imagine you could go to the local supermarket, a few miles away, but were not allowed to turn around to go home. No turning here fellow, we go only one direction here. Just continue on your way says the traffic cop who looks just like Chief Wiggins on the Simpsons.

25,000 miles later, you would have traveled around the world only to reach where you started, but now the milk is sour, the ice cream has long since melted away, and you are lost in some hallucinogenic haze caused by white line fever and sleep deprivation compounded by a constant diet of dry Froot Loops and stale Oreos. ( How do you spell Oreos? Oreoes? Little help from Dan Quayle please )

The point to the Sunday morning rambling is to know the nature of the beast. I cannot count the times I’ve seen someone sell at the bottom of a drop only to see it soar a short time later. Most here look at the fundamentals of the markets, and many argue the merits of investing by these fundamentals. The market will try and shake you off like a flea, but it is up to you to hang on or find another dog.

I believe gold is cheap here, although I have limited expectations for its near term performance.

Silver is way iffy, although the fundamentals are strong.

Platinum has some people worried. You all know what I think of Platinum.

Palladium if for adrenaline junkies.

Awaaaay……………Tothebeachtocontemplatethenatureofthethong

http://www.kcna.co.jp/index.htm

Finally, I found someone else who knows about this. A.J. - I was surfing online that night. I came across a posting with a link to the Norman online seismograph. There is was! Clear as day - 2 explosions took place within seconds of each other. The first was spikelike and the second was more bowl shaped. I didn't save the page that night - the next morning it was gone. The day before and the day after were online, but the day of the bombing was missing. That morning I understood the depths Clinton would go to to preserve himself. I haven't heard of of the 2 explosions again until I read your post tonight. I saw the chart - there were 2 explosions in OKC that morning!

Strangely enough, I think APH is right about the SP500 being ready to take off. Its nearing the end of the month, and all of that baby boomer money has to go somewhere, and so does all of that money fleeing Japan and Russia.

Date: Sat May 23 1998 23:14

Murrstein ( @aol.com ) ID#348141:

I know you guys are making fun of me.

If it doesn't stop soon, Swamp Boy, Griz, and Observer,

you'll be looking at lawsuits. One for each of you.

Murrstein

http://www.freeman.org/m_online/feb98/bodansky.htm

I have read this fellow several times now -- his prose is convoluted -- but plausible. I think he is legit -- but I am no George Smiley.

What worries me is the following: Just how far would WJC go to avoid an embarrassing confrontation between moslem extremists in Bosnia, and American forces that are now getting bogged down? And just why has he recently annouced the US stockpiling of anti-biological warfare meds?

Here is what I have surmised: First, has WJC offered up Egypt to the Islamic extremists in return for no interference in Bosnia? According to this article, Mobarak believes this, and this is part of the reason why he is making overtures to the Sudan, and to Iran. I find this appalling that we might even think about selling an ally like Egypt down the river, even if it has been forced into secret agreements with Syria. Hoever, it does make sense in a perverse sort of way that US interests might want to 'sacrifice' Egypt as that would also weaken the Arab forces which are now gathering around Israel. However, if this forces the Mubarak government ( along with Saudi Arabia ) into the lap of Iran, it would appear to me as rather inept, in addition to being morally wrong.

There is another matter even more disturbing in all of this. WJC is smart enough to know that only a genuine national emergency will deflect public interest away from him and the economy. Hence -- why not accelerate things a bit -- create unrest in the Middle East, or even encourage Islamic terrorism within US borders? He could silence all of his detractors during his declaration of a National Emergency. With his skills in foreign affairs, he is more likely to bungle whatever scheme he may be cooking up, to the detriment of the US, and world peace.

I know I am speaking to the choir here at Kitco, because conspiracy is a common topic on this site. I do not want to cause undue commotion with this -- but on the other hand, I sincerely hope that we have some lurking career members of our government who will see this. Hopefully the url I have found will be read by intelligence circles ( probably has by some ) , and a potential disaster worse than the ChinaSatelliteMisslegate fiasco avoided.

I did get a kick about what The Economist said about WJC visiting China in the next few weeks -- it gives him another chance to mess things up.