What worries me is that a surgical removal of the head ( WJC ) may not clease our government of the body. The body could grow another head. It all depends on how influential these insiders really are.

Either way, I would not give 5 cents for WJC's future. The same shady group that launched his career could end it very quickly. There must be a reason they have not already done so. Perhaps they are heading for cover first.

I must admit I do not understand cyclic analysis to see ups and downs in the markets as some of our more august posters can. However, I can see the wave coming. No matter what, there will be a time for us gold bugs to move swiftly, and as some of us have pointed out, if we wait too long we will get caught up in the froth, and we will not be able to get off in time. We must not be greedy. The next few months are going to be busy ones for all of us. BC might actually survive to y2k, but I doubt it. The anti-Clinton newsbytes will not let up.

The real profits in gold stocks will be in investments purchased after the equity markets have dropped significantly. Gold will do fine regardless.

None of us loves MSFT, but they did it. Apple, Xerox, HP, TI, IBM: they ( and others ) all had a shot at it and failed.

Henry Ford suffered a similar campaign. If you have a decent product and are a marketing genius,and are immensely succesful with the public, you will be attacked mercilessly by the failures and their allies, the trial lawyers and politicians.

If only Bill Gates had been smart enough to donate heavily to the Democrap National Committee.........

Sat, 16 May 1998 5:42:47 PDT

Story from Reuters / Richard Jacobsen

Copyright 1998 by Reuters ( via ClariNet )

NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The mammoth corporate mergers that have given Wall Street stocks new reasons to rally could also be a sign

the bull market is in its twilight phase, the experts say.

At a time when incipient concerns over faltering corporate earnings and budding inflation appeared set to sap the market's momentum,

headline-grabbing deals have pulled buyers back.

But the mega deals could be just another sign of a tired market that is nearing a top, with companies using their inflated stock prices as

currency and searching to grow through mergers, analysts say.

For now, the billion dollar mergers and acquisitions are convincing investors that it is not the time to pull back from the roaring stock

market.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 40.85 points to 9,096 for the week, in part because of a wave of big mergers.

``For people who were on the fence wondering what to do, the merger talk gives them a push in the direction of buying,'' Bob Dickey,

technical analyst at Dain Rauscher, said.

Setting the tone, Baby Bell SBC Communications Inc. agreed to buy Ameritech Corp. for $61 billion in stock.

Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes Inc. said it will buy Western Atlas Inc. in a stock deal valued at $5.5 billion.

The deals follow the biggest industrial merger in history -- Daimler-Benz AG's acquisition of Chrysler Corp., unveiled this month.

In many cases the transactions have lifted whole groups of stocks as investors bet that the corporate marriages would lead to further

tie-ups.

The Daimler-Chrysler deal boosted auto stocks and financial shares rallied in the wake of last month's $70 billion stock merger between

Citicorp and Travelers Group Inc.

But there have been signs that the mergers have been providing only a narrow, short-term burst to the stock market.

Marshall Acuff, portfolio strategist for Salomon Smith Barney, said the merger activity reminded him of the late 1960s, when the bull

market of the 1950s and 1960s was petering out, to finally die in the early 1970s.

``This all sort of smells like late long-term bull market behavior -- when companies basically become concerned with future growth and

they try to build in more growth through doing deals,'' he said.

Mergers are most bullish for the overall market when they are done with cash, on the theory that bought-out stockholders will re-invest

their new-found wealth in other stocks.

But the high market valuation has meant that most of the rich deals have been done with stocks.

While one company's stocks are removed from circulation, potentially lowering the supply of shares in the market, the overall impact on

the market is weakened because the acquiring company often puts more stocks into circulation.

``Obviously, that's not as big an influence as being taken over for cash,'' Bruce Bittles, market strategist at J.C. Bradford, said. ``The cash

gives you an opportunity to buy something else.''

Dickey said he thought the latest batch of mergers was enough of a catalyst to stem a market downturn.

``I think we're off to the races,'' he said.

But analysts said it was anybody's guess how long the bull market's legs would hold out. Its stamina has fooled many who have predicted

its demise in recent years.

Bittles, however, said he was recommending investors sell into the current rally.

``With these valuations and this euphoria, that's the right thing to do right now,'' he said.

Among other market gauges, the Nasdaq composite index fell 17.6 points for the week to 1,846.77. The Standard & Poor's index of

500 stocks rose 0.59 to 1,108.73 and the NYSE composite index of all listed common stocks was at 574.40, down 1.32 for the week.

I challenge the spinmeisters to put a good spin on this one. I know the public has been lulled into quiescence, but a steady leak of news such as this should stir up the most jaded Americans.

Matt Drudge likens this to the Pentagon Papers ( Daniel Ellsberg ) . My memory is a little rusty on this topic, but I do not recall a paper trail ( or its equivalent ) directly to the presidential office. This time there apparently is one.

http://www.drudgereport.com/1.htm

There is more to this than meets the eye. Clearly there are high-level governmental insiders who want Clinton out of office. My guess is that he has stepped on too many toes. I must admit I suspected something along these lines, but I did not imagine the magnitude of the implications. My guess is that WJC's role in foreign affairs is over as of today. How long WJC stays in office now depends on the skill of his spinmeisters, but even James Carville will have trouble with this one. Does he take on the entire government as his adversary? Is the government to be attacked as inept, lying or corrupt?

Probably any president could be brought down in a manner like this if he has lost the loyalty of those who serve him.

GOLD

1997: 508,025 oz.

1996: 213,500 oz.

1995: 246,950 oz.

1994: 265,275 oz.

1993: 463,525 oz.

1992: 344,195 oz.

SILVER

1997: 2,531,000 oz.

1996: 3,466,000 oz.

1995: 4,590,000 oz.

1994: 5,540,500 oz.

1993: 5,890,000 oz.

1992: 5,544,000 oz.

the more reason to treasure this life for all it's

worth in the present NOW! Enjoy

My intuitive feeling is that we are at a major crossroads in gold, for several reasons:

1 ) The downtrend of two years is clearly broken,

2 ) the CB's are starting to wind down the gold loans post EURO launch deadline.

3 ) Political instability is on the increase ( complements of the US administration precipitating the India nuclear arms testing )

4 ) the XXXgate situation is winding up, not down,

5 ) the markets are running on vapor. Where are those rising computer stock earnings the markets are anticipating?. I know our information revolution firms are the flagships of our economy, and they may do well later, but probably not until europe comes out of their recession. That will not help this summer, at least.

By the way, I would be very interested in conversing with your associate at Lucent about the lunar effect on the markets. I too think there are positive and negative cyclic phenomena, but I'm not sure that it is simple ionospheric charge action. There is the matter of the other planets as well, and most lie outside the earth's magnetoionosphere. The solar wind matter is yet another story.

By the way, I am impressed.

I like the old chinese approach to medicine as an analogy. The doctor only got paid when the patient was healthy. He was expected to take care of everyone in his care when they were sick -- for free.

Profit motive is a strong incentive for human endeavor. But the rules must be such that no one can take unfair advantage of another.

If we cannot convince our own wives about the gold vs fiat currency situation, it is no wonder most of the human world thinks we are oddities, or gloomer and doomers. The fiat currency/bull market mania will end with a sudden crash, with little warning. And who knows when? Y2k? 2005, 2010, 2015? It will happen.

Of course, if you are trying to guess the timing of a major gold rally, like the one we are about to have sometime in the next 6-12 months or so, his fundamental information about CB gold sales may be quite useful.

The Roooooskies have NOT ( officially ) delivered ANY PGM's ALL YEAR! This is the same picture as last year......the same.....only this time I think it may be a little more desperate......YES.

ANYONE Please respond. RJ.....please add.

away...uh huh.

Éß

Perhaps I should adjust a sentence in my last post regarding the couple-o-buck down day Monday. It should read: If we see a small rise and small fall and it closes close to the day before 'settle' price than it will be ANOTHER piece to the PENNANT puzzle. But, of course, if we see a BIG rise in price-o-Plat on Monday then throw this Pennant Post out the window and sit back and enjoy the show......either way sit back and enjoy the show......for it will be wrought ( big pun ) with fireworks....UH....HUH.

away...to the charts

Éß

-------------------------------------

Platinum - By including the absolute low last December in the channel, it is possible to construct a new

upward-trending channel that contains platinum's price action. Its a bit of a stretch. However, despite PL's recent

jump, it still seems quite anemic to me. There is absolutely no reason I can think of why PL should not have soared

to a new high following PA up. In fact, at its current level, it is barely touching the top of the steeply

downward-trending channel I had previously drawn. As PA backs off from its high, it seems to me that PL will

back off as well. I'm going to stay on the sidelines awhile longer ( and will probably regret it ) .

-------------------------------------------

When making your channels it is only fair to include the Dec lows. I don't understand the stretch at all. It looks right. I think it would have been wrong NOT to include it. When you do this that chart looks AMAZING. You have outdone yourself. When you reversed yourself after the last highs I peeled off a few myself and thanked you for it ( many times over to myself ) . I trust you liquidated your shorts when you say you are on the sidelines, yes? The time is right to reverse yourself again. The fact that Plat has not soared in unison does not ( imo ) make it all that anemic. ALL attention has been on PA and PL has made good progress from those who sell it to the dirt. I believe they are waking up to what will be the inevitable rise of Plat. RJ and I talked at length on the phone and his theories/understandings of these two metals is quite expansive and LOGICAL ( i 'dig' logical scenarios ) . Perhaps he will be sooooo kind as to give a short explanation as to why PL will benefit from PA rise. ( he has already but perhaps for the peopleo not paying attention the first time ) .

And as PA backs off it's high's.........whoa ( ! ) stop right there. Why would PA back off it's highs? What has changed with the supply/demand equation to say that PA is going ANYWHERE but UP PA will trade at lofty heights for a time, yes. ( not to sound like an RJ clone, however, there ain't no PA to sell....... ) And from what I just read and posted in an 'after trading report' it is not likely to go down anytime soon. This has just started hotttttting UP.

I would also like to note with regards to Platinum. Using NYMEX charts I see the beginning of a wedgie/triangle being formed in Plat. If monday is a couple-o-buck down day then I will be even more convinced and will be the most raving Platinum BULL on this planet ( i am getting real close now ) .......I would love to see that triangle.....uh huh. YES. OK.

away...to w/w

Éßricklayinginbackyardweekend

------------------------

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554171322-683

------------------------

away...

Éß

Producers are traders like everybody else. If they see the price rising, they simply buy back some of their forward sales. They are pretty smart folks, yes?

Away........tochasetoofastthongsinanattempttostayyoungandvital

Indedy

Strangely enough, quantum mechanics is very similar to this. But -- I guess it should be, shouldn't it? The rules of our world ( reality ) seem to apply at all levels in a similar manner - from the atomic level to the galactic level. Amazing, isn't it!

Which work by Frank Veneroso are you referring to?

Toady = Today

Arden -

Your comment that,… not everyone on this forum is trading the wiggles and waggles of a COMEX chart. Cuts to the heart of the differences in how I approach this market. My view is tactical. My horizons are a month or two out. I have a lot of clients who believe in holding physical gold ( as do I ) and I have been happy to recommend gold for delivery at these levels. Gold is cheap now. If one wants to buy and hold, now is the time to do it.

Thanks for the compliment.

JD -

What did you download and from where to boost speed? I too tried the MTU search, but came up with nothing. I want to be speedy too, please help……

James 2 @ 6:00 -

With an outlook like yours, may I suggest a quick overdose of something? If we are all so doomed, why wait around for the ugly end?

JTF -

I have much to respond to you about. I will do so later toady or tomorrow

I am having a hard time integrating your comments with those of Frank Veneroso's. Especially since our two year gold bear has clear signs of ending - to anyone with a transparent ruler.

Thanks in advance.

Rhody & All -

Why does the fact that gold is leased for forward sales always have to be some conspiracy? It is a commodity. Are farmers, selling forward grains or corn, part of a grand conspiracy to keep the price of grains down? No…. He is locking in prices so he has predictability of revenue. This is how it is done. There is no conspiracy. Forward sales are necessary to properly produce any commodity.

http://www.bionomics.org/

For an overview of chaos theory and how our ignorance of the chaos effect kept the blinders on, read James Gleich's Chaos: The Making of a Science. Reads like a good novel. Funny, but I feel that mystics and poets always realized that the chaos had to be addressed and respected, it was the scientists that missed it for so long.

To everyone: No matter what happens over the next few months, it is ( I think ) unanimous that gold will not go down below $280/oz. Also, the US dollar is rising right now -- probably 'flight to safety'. AG will not dare raise rates at this time with such a strong dollar and weak world markets, IMHO. And, AG will not pull out all the stops this time if the markets tank -- he is afraid of a popped market bubble on his watch. Lets also not forget that we had a gold rally in 1993, and AG did not try to 'trounce' the gold market then.

So -- it makes sense to be long gold. All we need to watch for is a 'gold fire sale' from a country that still has alot of gold, and goes into a financial criss. Not too many of these left.

It is highly significant I think that this time the names of anti- Clinton information sources within the Justice department are being released. This can only mean one thing -- that there are now outspoken individuals within our government who are fed up with the current administration -- and the ranks are probably growing. Highly sensitive defense information normally routed through the Pentagon has been rerouted through the Commerce department -- bypassing normal security channels, on BC's official approval.

I am not against exchange of knowledge with China -- but only if is not militarily related. I guess the current administration has forgotten whose missles are pointed directly at us ( and on Washington DC ) . I would like mozel's advice on what presidency was more damaging to the security of the US ( and that of the world ) than our current one. Wait till the historians get their hands on BC. He may avoid criminal proceedings just as OJ did -- but the entire world will be his prison.

they are aware of it or not:

What am I

What am I my friend and my foe?

All that I've learned has been taught to me

All that I know has been revealed to me

The breath I breathe, a gift to me

This body, this earth has loaned to me

What am I, my friend, my foe, but a simple, humble,

beggar of love

Saw your dad's poem this morning. My grandfather volunteered for WWI,WWII, and the Korean war. His comments about war can be summarized in the following words: 'Scratch the surface of a Human, and you will find an animal'. That is the negative side. But on the other hand, he was the most generous, kind, considerate person I have ever known. Took care of his invalid wife without complaint for nearly 15 years. Wasn't easy given her personality. There are many fine individuals in my life that I respect, so I know all is not lost. One of the best I know is a retired trolley conductor from Pennsylvania -- we have known that family for over 40 years.

I would like to make another positive point since things are not going well in the world right now. Our human reality is often not pleasant, but over the recent centuries and millenia, things have constantly gotten better, despite the reversals. Discussion of possible lost former civilizations is for another time. Our current information revolution is 'the awakening' so oft talked about. This is the human collective consciousness forming for the first time in our civilization -- our opportunity to evolve.

No matter what happens, our self awareness has spread throughout the universe, and our existence in the grand scheme of things is assured.

I suspect very strongly, by the way, that we have been having visitors.

We may actually have guardians of some kind to help us through our dark times -- but the assistance of the guardians, if they exist, must be subtle, as it must appear that we met our own problems and overcame them.

Even if there are no guardians monitoring us, our collective consciousness -- your dad's poetry -- the great works of music and literature will live on forever -- because the entire universe is connected -- past -- present -- future. The concept of time itself is a 3-dimensional human artifact.

Hope this helps. I find this weekend especially hard for me, after my discovery that unscrupulous members of our own government were the reason India was forced to detonate 5 nuclear weapons, moving the world closer to the brink again. I have spent my whole life with the belief that I will not work on the wartime uses of nuclear energy, only peaceful ones. That has made my life difficult at times as a physicist, as you might imagine. Friends at Los Alamos, and other National labs. But -- I have no regrets -- other than my concern about not being able to be more effective in preventing war.

If we can learn to use the 'free energy' ( ZPE -- Casimir effect ) that may break the bonds from our oppressors, since many wars are fought simply for natural resources. Once we are willing to give this knowlledge freely on the Internet ( already happening ) , it will no longer be suppressable. And -- once we have successfully colonized several planets/asteroids,etc., our future will be assured.

We must keep our faith in ourselves, no matter what happens, as that is more valuable by far than gold. We must all remember that that rare precious yellow material is nothing special, except that it forces our 'fiat' currency supporters into facing their own lies -- eventually.

It is not gold that is special. We are special.

trading I would like to digress a bit and share some

predictions. I hope this does not offend or bore anyone.

I apologize in advance if I appear to be redundant

or too simplistically obvious.

Without using doom and gloom scenarios of war, famine,

pestilence, and cataclysmic occurrence I will attempt to

accurately predict, with the possibility of slight variability,

the future outcome for all living animal organisms now existing

on this planet. I will do this without the use of theories,

beliefs, or imaginations. I will use only observable historical

and current factual information. My predictions are as follows:

25 years from now approximately 25 to 30% of all animal organisms

living today will cease to exist.

50 years from today approximately 50% of all animal organisms now

living will exist no more.

100 years from now approximately 98% of all current animal life will

no longer exist.

150 years from today all animal life alive today will have ceased to

exist.

200 years hence the only organisms, currently existing, will be various

forms of vegetation ( based on my meager observations ) .

So what does this indicate of the future that we can expect to occur?

More predictions:

CHANGE - CHANGE - CHANGE

To state this more succinctly, there will be many beginnings, progressions, and endings to everything we can conceive of i.e., belief

systems, governing factions, economic systems, educational priorities,

etc., etc., etc.

So what do the facts of the future indicate will not occur?

A utopian constant ( excluding supernatural intervention )

A permanence of any kind

The only permanent constant is CHANGE itself.

P.S. Many, many, many things will come, will exist, and then be no

more. However, as long as humans remain rational and have an aesthetic

appreciation I believe ( first belief ) gold will be highly esteemed

and sought after for both it's beauty and it's value. It has been so

to this day.

I think I confused everyone by mixing up CB gold sales with dropping gold prices. I think Vronsky has info on the length of gold bears.

Nite all!

Fact #1 The CB's have always had enough gold to swamp the markets for years. Historically they usually have stopped selling long before they ran out. This is due in part to the fact that whenever they sell their gold, it gives others to opportunity to buy it -- others being entities they could not control, such as foreign powers. Currently that is China, India, and the Middle East.

So -- the CB's cannot sell gold indefinitely without losing complete control of it, and that they will not do. Possibly bullish for gold now.

Fact #2 At some time, the CB's will shift from net selling to net buying. Historically, net CB selling has rarely lasted for more than 2 years, during times when the equilibrium price of gold was much higher than the spot price. Bullish for gold -- this gold bear is nearly two years old.

Fact #3 The CB's have loaned out 8000 tonnes of gold. This is a profitable undertaking as long as the dollar/gold carry is bullish for the dollar and bearish for gold. As soon as gold starts to rise in dollar terms, these trades will unwind, dollars will be sold, and the gold loans will be closed out. some gold loans have already defaulted. The dollar is currently also thought to be too strong for the rest of the world economy, so there is motivation to push the price of the dollar down. Bullish for gold.

Fact #4 The long term equilibrium price of gold is now about $600/oz ( I think Frank Veneroso said $650/oz ) . So, even though these are not inflationary times, we are far from equilibrium. Also, D.A thinks the deflationary period in SEAsia is over. Bullish for gold.

Fact #5. Historically, the CB's lose control over the price of gold during international crises, such as war, or the threat of war. Right now the international situation is bullish for gold.

Fact #6. During the financial collapse of a gold-owning country, there is a strong tendency to sell the gold during the financial turmoil. This is possibly bearish for gold -- short term.

So what do I conclude from the above? The gold bear is probably over.

My poker game is based on the gold bull beginning right now, given that the international situation may force the CB's hand. I think the only really bearish event for gold is the sudden collapse of a gold-rich country.

What do your floor trader friends say about gold?

I'll respond to the rest tomorrow.

I'm going out.

Uh Huh!

SDRer has no compunctions about finding flaws in my arguments.

And this is why China desperately seeks Most Favored Nation status from the US?

Their markets are the west and from the west they buy the technology and means to produce what they sell at home and abroad. No nation is an island. Well Britain maybe, and Cuba, and Bermuda, and…… well you get the idea.

The prospects for the future have never looked brighter.

Yes

Sorry about the hiccup. Must have gotten caught in the hour block changeover.

Winston -

I have never attended an Indian wedding, and who told you about my hair?

Huh?

If growth continues at more or less the same pace, and we could control government spending, we could grow out of the debt in 10 or 15 years. Most families in this country have a mortgage. The standard mortgage is 30 years. Are all these folks broke?

We have a 5 trillion dollar economy and a 5 trillion dollar debt.

This would be as a family with a 100K income, with a 100K mortgage.

Not broke, no.

Remember, I am a gold broker. I sell gold for a living. This is not some propagandist's ploy to undermine gold confidence. Everybody here knows where I work, so I am not proselytizing anti gold sentiments. I will turn raging bull one day, and that day may not be too far off. In the meantime, it is my job to trade the market for my clients. Long whites and short gold has paid off pretty well these last couple years. When I feel I can make profits in long gold, I will be all over it. Until then, is it not refreshing to hear a gold peddler bashing gold?

Instead of calling it as I see it, I have often been accused of some agenda. Yet, by and large, my views have held to be among the most accurate on this forum. This does not fit the party line, but it does work, yes?

As for this group, I stand in awe of the collected intellect and talent that abounds here, I keep coming back, don't I? Bart has created a world class site. If, however, one throws an argument at me, with inherent contradictions or flaws within, I will sometimes choose to point this out. Most here have not hesitated to point out my own foibles so I think I am not alone in the assumption that I am free to comment on a particular argument.

I believe that the character and motives of the folks on this site are noble in intent and earnest in their sentiments. That I call their arguments into question does not mean I impugn their person or integrity. I believe many here are trying their best to explain a world that seems perched on disaster. I believe these people are honestly trying to pass the message of safety and security. I believe their intentions are good. That I would find occasion to disagree with their logic is no impeachment of their selves.

I have many times offered the exact same argument as the one I am debating, only without the emotion and with a different outcome. Many here have told me they have never looked at it quite this way, and they see things clearer now. I have written on these pages before, that the highest complement I may pay to another, is to recognize this person as A Thinker of the next Thought. When you come up with an answer, ask the next question it brings. To avoid this is to use half the brain.

I am blessed, or cursed, with the constant asking of the next question. This is one reason I study physics. It always asks the next question, and even the grandest of theories are set aside when observation does not agree with prediction. Either it works or not. Answers are never even really answers, just closer approximations of what we perceive as the truth.

Many here are seekers of sorts, but when they find what they set out to find, they hold it aloft and bid all hail this great new knowledge. When the young boy in the back asks, Yes, but what if...., he is roundly cuffed and jostled by the mob until he is silenced. This is not seeking. This is mob rule and justification for one's own prejudice.

Like others here, I too have the right to speak the truth as I see it, or to not speak at all.

Indeedy