With vast new markets opening before us, 1 out of 3 people on Earth ( Eastern Europe, Russia, China ) will join the queue towards capitalism and consumption. These locals have vast natural resources with which to pay for the goods and services we will sell, They have oil, timber, uranium, silver, gold, nickel, tin, etc. all in the ground just waiting to be dug up to pay for their increasing standard of living.

If growth continues at more or less the same pace, and we could control government spending, we could grow out of the debt in 10 or 15 years. Most families in this country have a mortgage. The standard mortgage is 30 years. Are all these folks broke?

We have a 5 trillion dollar economy and a 5 trillion dollar debt.

This would be as a family with a 100K income, with a 100K mortgage.

Not broke, no.

Remember, I am a gold broker. I sell gold for a living. This is not some propagandist's ploy to undermine gold confidence. Everybody here knows where I work, so I am not proselytizing anti gold sentiments. I will turn raging bull one day, and that day may not be too far off. In the meantime, it is my job to trade the market for my clients. Long whites and short gold has paid off pretty well these last couple years. When I feel I can make profits in long gold, I will be all over it. Until then, is it not refreshing to hear a gold peddler bashing gold?

Instead of calling it as I see it, I have often been accused of some agenda. Yet, by and large, my views have held to be among the most accurate on this forum. This does not fit the party line, but it does work, yes?

As for this group, I stand in awe of the collected intellect and talent that abounds here, I keep coming back, don't I? Bart has created a world class site. If, however, one throws an argument at me, with inherent contradictions or flaws within, I will sometimes choose to point this out. Most here have not hesitated to point out my own foibles so I think I am not alone in the assumption that I am free to comment on a particular argument.

I believe that the character and motives of the folks on this site are noble in intent and earnest in their sentiments. That I call their arguments into question does not mean I impugn their person or integrity. I believe many here are trying their best to explain a world that seems perched on disaster. I believe these people are honestly trying to pass the message of safety and security. I believe their intentions are good. That I would find occasion to disagree with their logic is no impeachment of their selves.

I have many times offered the exact same argument as the one I am debating, only without the emotion and with a different outcome. Many here have told me they have never looked at it quite this way, and they see things clearer now. I have written on these pages before, that the highest complement I may pay to another, is to recognize this person as A Thinker of the next Thought. When you come up with an answer, ask the next question it brings. To avoid this is to use half the brain.

I am blessed, or cursed, with the constant asking of the next question. This is one reason I study physics. It always asks the next question, and even the grandest of theories are set aside when observation does not agree with prediction. Either it works or not. Answers are never even really answers, just closer approximations of what we perceive as the truth.

Many here are seekers of sorts, but when they find what they set out to find, they hold it aloft and bid all hail this great new knowledge. When the young boy in the back asks, Yes, but what if...., he is roundly cuffed and jostled by the mob until he is silenced. This is not seeking. This is mob rule and justification for one's own prejudice.

Like others here, I too have the right to speak the truth as I see it, or to not speak at all.

Yes

Indeedy

Malthus' postulate

http://mendel.genetics.washington.edu/~lab/malthusdoct.html

Malthus' essay

http://www.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/malthus/popu.txt

deconstructionists' essay

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98may/special1.htm

chart

http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~munro5/timecht2.htm

model ( just read the verbage as you don't have the program )

http://www.stolaf.edu/people/mckelvey/envision.dir/malthus.html

San Francisco. ( Also I escaped a few hangings and shootings elsewhere. ) My advice is to live somewhere be it city or country where you and your neighbors know each other to the extent that you look out for and would help each other in bad times. Don't have to be social friends but just like-minded in the sense of community protection. Not a commune or socialist enclave by any means, God forbid, just a place you know and where you are known. A place you could travel blindfolded. Could be suburban, urban or country. Doesn't even have to be spelled out or organized. You just know. They know. Not freaks. Just people. Probably where you already live.

Winston -

And the vast majority of those have never even seen an ounce of gold as most on this earth are poor or live at standards far below our own.

Of those with enough wealth ( fiat ) to buy gold, the vast majority are increasingly happy with numbers on their bank statement. The must hold gold sentiment is going the way of the Dodo. More gold is accumulated every year. Less people believe in it. History is proving this. Most of what appears on these pages supports my arguments; at least when the emotional gold lens is removed and gold is viewed without bias.

Tis true

Indeedy

It was my spell checker

It read Kitkat

As Kiwi

Yyyyyyeess?

Thanks...

I agree with you about APH and Preacher, I have not followed Cyclist posts but I will begin to do so.

May I add to the list, Oldman ( when he deigns to post ) , Mike Sheller ( astrology aside, his record is good and his TA is well grounded ) , and especially, D.A. who has the clearest vision of any goldbug I have ever seen. These are good folks to follow.

Yes

Actually Kiwi, that particularly fractured sentence of mine referred more to silver.

A flock of brokers gathered around the price screens to watch silvers gains evaporate. Tis a scene most often viewed on a Friday and always a grim sight.

Sorry Donald, I read the palladium part and skipped the gold part. For group edification the quote is:

Brokers GNI said in a report that gold appeared to jump on the Aurora news. In all our years of looking at the gold market, this is the first time that that we have seen an apparent gold price jump because of a supply shortage, GNI said.

Donald, this is a shortage do to civil unrest and cessation of shipments. This means there is a shortage in Indonesia. There are still massive amounts of gold - more than at any time in history - everywhere you point. It is sad the Indonesians cannot get gold now, but the rest of the world is awash.

It is

Donald ( Russia raises interest rates to 40% on 30 day money. Stocks drop 15% for week. )

What I find particularly amusing is that someone one these very pages reported that Russia bought mucho gold. If I may borrow from Eldo, HAR.

Russia is a gold producer. You need dollars to by gold. Russia is broke. From where the dollars? The reality is that Russia has sold its reserves to raise cash. Their mining infrastructure is broken down. A gaggle of Finlands would not begin to improve this picture. Only massive amounts of western $ will help. These $ are not forthcoming.

Yes

Once again: Consumption is Consuming.

Gold reported as consumed

That went into make up bullion coins

So that more gold may be hoarded

IS NOT CONSUMPTION!!!!!!

Calling it thus

Is disingenuous and an outright lie

Yes

Indeedy

What are you referring to?

As for scarcity of gold, you know my views.

Point all ten fingers in ten different directions

All will be pointing at enormous hordes of gold

There is no scarcity

Huh uh

The close today was extremely weak. Right up until the last ten minutes everything was flying, then all hopes were dashed and shattered in a heated and frenzied sell off that left us all exhausted and disoriented. ( pardon me, I am feeling a bit dramatic this eve ) .

Anyways…………………. This bodes not well for S and G. But DJ does still not see the fundamental reasons platinum must rise. A channel cannot be constructed that will tell you anything about a market in fundamental shortage. The potential for an explosive move is all there.

Yes

Regarding production statistics at Norilsk:

Baron's reported last year that scrap reclamation and small amounts of production from other mines on the peninsula were being included in Norilsk totals. This cooking of the books has been going on for some time. All reports from non-Russian sources indicate that Norilsk is operating at 25% efficiency and the ore is drastically depleted. Only the Russians say all is OK.

Seems palladium has a ways to go, yes?

Gold - If I ignore the January low, the price action since then fits a very narrow, but nicely upward-trending channel. The drop to 296 hits the bottom of this channel. However, I think this is deceptive. The channel width of gold in the past has been much wider. This implies that we will see this channel widened at some point. One possibility is a break through the bottom, hopefully stopping when the channel width includes the January low. This seems not unlikely to me.

Silver - Although I don't care for the downward-trending channel, the recent low allows a pretty decent channel to be constructed. The closing spot price shows silver breaking back towards the channel bottom. This may or may not be confirmed by Monday's London fix.

Platinum - By including the absolute low last December in the channel, it is possible to construct a new upward-trending channel that contains platinum's price action. Its a bit of a stretch. However, despite PL's recent jump, it still seems quite anemic to me. There is absolutely no reason I can think of why PL should not have soared to a new high following PA up. In fact, at its current level, it is barely touching the top of the steeply downward-trending channel I had previously drawn. As PA backs off from its high, it seems to me that PL will back off as well. I'm going to stay on the sidelines awhile longer ( and will probably regret it ) .

Palladium - RJ was right about this one! Too bad it is too expensive to play.

http://www.drudgereport.com/

See you all later -- I need to exercise for a while before I blow a gasket. It takes a while for me to calm down when I read about things such as this. With one swift action, we have made a significant step toward nuclear holocaust. Who needs enemies when members of our own government conspire to give a foreign power nearly free access to our nuclear technology? And, gold is of no value when it is radioactive.

Who needs the Antichrist when we can do this to ourselves?

I am still shaking my head about all of this -- we ( certain US interests ) are responsible for a significant step forward to a potential nuclear holocaust. This is much worse than messing with the dollar and inflating it. Or excessive taxation. And the Clinton administration professes to be in favor of peace. I'm sure the Palestinians and the Israeli's know this too -- no wonder the peace baton has been passed to England.

I did not realize how quickly any one president could damage our reputation all over the world. What ever you say about George Bush, he did nothing like this -- or Ronald Reagan. I would need mozel to tell me what past president sold us ( and the world ) down the river like this.

1 ) 'Chinese Delivery', by Bill Gertz. Accelerated technology transfer by American interests to ensure that cheap Chinese 'Long March' missles could reliably launch American Satellites for savings of hundreds of millions of dollars. The problem: these 'Long March' missles are essentially identical to the nuclear ones, so we ( the US interests ) just advanced Chinese nuclear missle technology a decade or so. And those missles are aimed at us.

This was from an article by Bill Gertz in the National Review. Bill Gertz is the defense and national safety correspondent for the Washington Times.

Now if you were an Indian, what would you think ( or do ) if you found out about this? A: Modernize your nuclear program, and convince China you have a deterrent by detonating 5 nuclear weapons. As far as I am concerned, this is treason. Perhaps BC should impose those sanctions on himself, instead of India.

2 ) 'Blame the US for India's Nukes', by Micheal Ledeen, Wall Street Journal 5/15/98. Since 1995, we ( the US ) liberalized our nuclear policy, allowing India access to the technology that enabled them to develop newer nuclear weapons. The US interests ( with BC's Blessing ) also gave Beijing access to advanced machine tools, supercomputers, nuclear test simulation software,etc. permitting China to modernize its nuclear weapons.

And, I'm pretty sure that India has the hydrogen bomb as well. Can you blame them?

3 ) Drudge Report, 5/14/98. Johnny Chung bomshell on page one above the fold of this Friday's New York Times, by Jeff Gerth. In a nutshell, Chinese Communist leaders made illegal contributions to the Democratic party. What is new about this is that Jeff Gerth has two inside sources within the Justice department in coming up with this story: David Johnston, and Don Van Natta. As MD states, 'the sound of Pulitzer is ringing in the air all week at the TIMES Washington Bureau.'

My assessment is that the Communist Chinese were supporting BC's election, and in return they got the technology they needed for their unreliable missles. Why pay spies when you can pay the president?

Of course, I have only a hunch to come up with this conclusion, but read the rest of the article and come up with your own conclusions. I think this is why BC is strangely quiet these days -- it is not Monicagate that he is worried about. He is history if members of the Justice department would release something like this.

away...to play some hoooops

Éßßallin'

At the very least, any of us who have bought shares of gold producers with significant holdings in Indonesia, beware!

I do not mean that the rest of the world needs our collective Kitco paranoia and distrust of authority/world leaders. In an ideal world where all lies are transparent, paranoia and distrust might very well be a thing of the past.

Let us hope that someday what is happening at this little site happens all over the world, and the liars, the conspirators and the self deceivers are seen for what they are. I doubt that contrarian investment will ever be a thing of the past, but the magnitude of this deception by the 'acquisitor' class must stop. And -- these cycles from wealth to poverty and back are a tremendous waste of human resources.

All I can say is the I hope we are getting better -- generation by generation -- and that eventually we will reach our destiny -- in the stars.

Also, I doubt that the US markets will take off with the crisis in Indonesia, the nuclear crisis, or the Middle East situation -- an ideal situation for gold/gold equities to rally. A silver rally would certainly help, although some of our excellent cycle analyists have predicted nothing in silver till the fall.

This riding of the Gold Bug Tsunami is hard work! I would be quite happy to lose money simply because a world-class diplomat can guarantee world peace and harmony for the millennium.

Investment results not guaranteed.

away...to count my pennies....for the dollars count themselves

Éß

Writers: Revaux/Francois/Anka

And now, the end is near;

And so I face the final curtain.

My friend, I'll say it clear,

I'll state my case, of which I'm certain.

I've lived a life that's full.

I've traveled each and ev'ry highway;

But more, much more than this,

I did it my way.

Regrets, I've had a few;

But then again, too few to mention.

I did what I had to do

And saw it through without exemption.

I planned each charted course;

Each careful step along the byway,

But more, much more than this,

I did it my way.

Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew

When I bit off more than I could chew.

But through it all, when there was doubt,

I ate it up and spit it out.

I faced it all and I stood tall;

And did it my way.

I've loved, I've laughed and cried.

I've had my fill; my share of losing.

And now, as tears subside,

I find it all so amusing.

To think I did all that;

And may I say - not in a shy way,

No, oh no not me,

I did it my way.

For what is a man, what has he got?

If not himself, then he has naught.

To say the things he truly feels;

And not the words of one who kneels.

The record shows I took the blows -

And did it my way!

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

AG is not storing dollar reserves because they are all going to Japan in some form, and he cannot raise interest rates -- at least not until the Japan situation stabilizes, and the dollar drops on its own.

My intuitive guess is that AG would like the markets to swoon on their own without any help from him in the form of raising short - term rates. He may get his wish -- it all depends on how the US markets continue to react to the recent nuclear/SEAsia/Japan news.

One last question -- if all of those US assets are going to Japan, where is the real ( underline real ) money coming from?

Spudmaster -- Have you checked that Federal Debt page recently? I'm willing to bet it is up another 200 billion just in the last month or so. Where else could all that debt go?

Palladium is the impetus for Plat....as the great Lime-Dude has said MANY times........OK. The auto manufacturers are re-tooled. Thanks RJ for the clues.....who da man? ......you da man!

away...to feel the rush of wind......woooosh!

Éß

what a great day for the metals....the whites anyway ( big smile thingy )

good show Crystal B....yuk-yuk.

http://headlines.yahoo.com/Full_Coverage/World/India

Now, has anyone been watching a BULL-FLAG forming in June Crude? Is it my imagination or should we/will we see a nice jump in Crude Donald is right ( amongst others ) ......something seems to be brewing....and it's not just my beer. This here Crude has been tweedle-deeing ( new word ) around for a while. We have seemed to hit bottom in crude along with gold. If they are to move in harmony - gold and crude - then what will, finally, be the impetus to get it going. There has been sooo much discussion here regarding this that I have become jaded and have lost focus. I don't know exactly what it is I am trying to say.....I just know we could be at some crossroads......but I think we have been at the crossroads for a time. There is no more vacancy at the hotels at these crossroads and some must now leave. Or will they build more hotels.... ( ) HUH? I dunno....again.

-------------

Beware lest you lose the substance by grasping at the shadow

The lamb......began to follow the wolf in sheeps clothing.

While I see many hoof marks going in, I see none coming out. It is easier to get into the enemies toils than to get out again.

-----------------

ya gotta love that Aesop *cat*.

away....to glance over my shoulder at times

Éß

btw...there she goes!!!

http://www.monex.com/prices.html hit reload

I think the anti-gold forces will have a hard time keeping a lid on things with the current rash of nuclear testing, and the planned demonstrations in Indonesia on the 20th of May. D.A.'s comments also support the end of deflationary events for a time -- and no US interest rate increases for at least two months. That will give us time for a nice quick gold rally - as it often is. I will leave the degree of the rally to the experts.

Just had a converstaion with a native Indian, who said that he understood the Indian position in favor of testing, because they did not have enough data to do all further testing by computer simulation. He did agree with me, however, that Pakistan would respond in kind. We both agreed that the 'new kid on the block' was really China, and India was not really worried about Pakistan. But -- if Pakistan sides with China and North Korea ....

We also agreed that sanctions against India might be counterproductive because a weakened India might not be a good thing with China next door. But we also agreed that the current events could eventually lead to undersireable consequences. Did you all know that India has the hydrogen bomb? News to me.

Interesting thing....last year the big spike happened in first part of June....you know the one to 460±. I am sooooo tempted to pick up a few more platties......naw. Greed will not bite my ass today.

away...to enjoy the show that will surely air.......and I ain't talkin about Shirley.

Éß

away...to w/w for the G7ers......looks as though the local-yocals are betting on the US$.....uh huh.

Éß

I use it to see the general trend of the market. The index is now squeezed with a low relative strength to the SP500 and it is sitting on its 50d MVA.

With India/Pakistan tension and Indonesia disaster, we are probably going to go lower, real soon... rather than up.

Just IMHO.

http://members.aol.com/gaston2/may98/ibd51598.gif

Good luck

Gaston

------------------

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554166838-792

------------------

can gold get moving hmmmmmmmmm.....what will be the impetus.....for it's impotence...........is there gold viagra Sharefin

away...to the gold pharmacist

Éß

http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi

Should we buy some more BP hmmmmmmmmmmm

away...to ponder the thought

ÉßuyingEngland

------------------------

Sell July Silver 5/21 to 6/28 13 of 15 years 87%

------------------------

It was wrong twice and can be wrong again......OK

away.....to watch Plat reach the moon soon

Éßastronaut

IMHIPO, your speculation that AG & Co. will stand pat on the 19th is most certainly correct. This is bullish for Au & may present that propitious window for a spurt in POG to $325/335. This non-action will be a non-inspirational event to the S&P, but will prevent a real May correction from turning into a general route. I look for the S&P to fully recover & nip at 1130 moving into July & meander from there into a September/October debacle. At this point, only cash, preferably in Marks or Swiss FC, & Precious Physicals will be spared substantial devaluation.

The Indonesian melt down will toast what is left of any semblance of solvency of Nippon Banks & by the time the US figures demonstrate real inflation, interest rate catch up will have to be painfully dealt out in quantum leaps.

I think the point that

IMHIPO, your speculation that AG & Co. will stand pat on the 19th is most certainly correct. This is bullish for Au & may present that propitious window for a spurt in POG to $325/335. This non-action will be a non-inspirational event to the S&P, but will prevent a real May correction from turning into a general route. I look for the S&P to fully recover & nip at 1130 moving into July & meander from there into a September/October debacle. At this point, only cash, preferably in Marks or Swiss FC, & Precious Physicals will be spared substantial devaluation.

The Indonesian melt down will toast what is left of any semblance of solvency of Nippon Banks & by the time the US figures demonstrate real inflation, interest rate catch up will have to be painfully dealt out in quantum leaps.

I think the point that

South African gold mine analyst John Disney has generously shared his report of the Fabulous Fundamentals of Harmony Gold Mines ( HGMCY on the NASDAQ ) .

Disney compares various Harmony statistics with those of Barrick Gold - the latter coming up most often on the short end of the stick. His exhaustive analysis discloses Harmony as an extremely undervalued investment relative to its market price. Subsequently, Harmony pregnant with gold reserves ( comparable to Barrick's ) is a prime candidate for take-over or merger by deep-pocketed North-American precious metals mining companies. Ironically, a much energized Harmony is aggressively seeking ITS OWN acquisitions in Canada and the very undervalued South Africa. It's a question of WHO is the hunter, and WHO will be the hunted.

In any case Harmony Gold Mines will soon command a much higher stock value in its ADRs on the NASDAQ, and in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. It's a must read. OH, remember to delete the extra letter b in word beagle.

http://www.gold-beagle.com/south_africa/regional_analysts/disney051498.html

Pressure builds on C$ as inflation eases

By DAVID THOMAS

Economics Reporter The Financial Post

Inflation took a surprise downward turn in April, with the

annual rate of change in the consumer price index dropping

to just 0.8% from an already low rate of 0.9% in March,

Statistics Canada reported yesterday.

The trend to lower inflation weighed on the C$. It continued

to reel yesterday after losing more than half a cent

Wednesday when the Bank of Canada signalled it plans to

keep interest rates steady through to November. Higher

interest rates tend to boost the value of the currency.

The C$ was down almost a third of a cent yesterday to

US68.90¢, but recovered somewhat to close at US69.06¢,

down US0.15¢.

Analysts had expected inflation to post a small gain and

several continued to call for a rebound in the rate, with

inflation heading toward 2% by the end of the year.

Overall, the rate is likely to edge up to 1% in May, rising to

1.3% by July and 1.8% by December, said John Lester, an economist with CIBC Wood Gundy

Securities Inc.

Randall Powley, senior economist at Scotia Capital Markets, said inflation should be on a clear

accelerating path by the third quarter and hit 2% by early 1999.

The core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, advanced at an

annual rate of 1.2%, down from March's 1.3%.

April's decline was led by a 0.9% drop in clothing prices and a 0.8% fall in new automobile

prices. Food prices were down 0.3% as fresh vegetables gave back some of the March

increases related to El Nino-plagued growing conditions in the U.S. and Mexico.

In a report released Wednesday, the Bank of Canada indicated it is ready to tolerate more

volatility in the value of the C$ without countering with an interest rate hike.

However, the bank said it would move if there were new monetary shocks. One such shock

could be a renewed slide in the C$.

Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Nesbitt Burns Inc., has been urging the bank to raise its

overnight lending rate to equal that of the U.S. Yesterday, she said if the bank doesn't act, it

will be pushed into doing so by further weakness in the C$.

It is only a matter of time before the bank is forced into hiking rates yet again to defend the

sinking dollar.

The C$ hit a record low of US68.25¢ in January, one day before the bank raised its rate by

half a percentage point to 5%.

Another concern for the C$ is the possibility the U.S. may raise interest rates first, increasing

the spread between the two countries' short-term rates. The Federal Reserve's overnight rate

is 5.5%.

Yesterday's inflation report in the U.S. showed its CPI was up 0.2% in April on a monthly basis

but the core rate actually declined to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.3% in March.

I think what is happening with North Korea, India, Pakistan, and possibly China would be a severe diplomatic test for the best of our historical world leaders. Israel and Palestine are going at it again, too. I am not confident that our BC will be able to deal with events like this this effectively, even without xxxxgate heating up. Even a Churchill or a Nehru would have difficulty. I hope also that Suharto has enough sense to resign. It is unfortunate that human nature is as it is. We are only capable of cultivating great leaders after great crises, not before.

I wish we were not having this kind of coalescence ( attractor? ) merging of events -- but it is indeed bullish for gold, and probably for the US dollar. The world does not need to emerge into the millenium with news like this, but we must not give up regardless. This gold bug will be riding the gold bug Tsunami with reluctance, but we have little choice, don't we? As long as the world markets do not crash outright, gold and gold stocks will do very well -- as long as the specific companies involved are not physically in the center of the violence.

I sincerely hope that the turmoil in Indonesia does not spread to Australia -- I would guess that at the very least you will have many refugees.