All: This post needs all the analysis our Kitco sleuths can give it. We are talking about the 4th largest economy in the world. Could it be that all of those purported Japanese savings are about to run out? Disturbing thought.

No, friend Clone

You tend to think the next thought

You stand alone and tall

And are welcome here

No assimilation you

You join us of your own will

May gold have mercy on your soul

So it is written

So let it be done

OK

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/gingrich050898.htm

We shall take up a collection to save you from your intentions

Indeedy

You do not comprehend seems to be your favored phrase.

Or its gentle cousin, You do not understand.

Many here suffer that malady, yes?

Hmmmm

I do think more emphasis must be made on preventive medicine, and less heroics on the last year or two of life. If I had a terminal illness, I would not want the massive heroics, as I would not want my family reduced to poverty. Preventive medicine wisely chosen would probably add 10-20 years to our life expectancy, and inexpensively. Of course the public must be ready to follow the advice of their doctors. Took nearly forever -- over 30years -- for the public to realize that smoking was dangerous. Alcohol so far is still not given much serious attention.

I agree with you that carefully chosen words are needed for something such as the Constitution. But the spirit of the American Constitution is much more than just a piece of paper. There are hundreds of years of history behind it, maybe as much as a thousand.

For example, other countries have Constitutions written based on our Constitution. But -- without the unique mixture of human values passed on in our culture -- those pieces of paper have no real value.

If you are correct that everything is in that piece of paper, you should be able to go to Japan, Russia, or North Korea, and convince them that all they need to do is read that little piece of paper and set up a democratic government like the ideal one you and I speak of. I challenge you to try that.

I maintain that our Constitution is the fruition of generations of social history, reaching back to English law and the Magna Carta, as well as other aspects of our rich history that you know better than I. I am only a physicist.

America did not happen just with the creation of a piece of paper. That paper is precious to me because it sympbolizes much more than just the words or the parchment, but the spirit of the American people.

Mozel: do we understand each other any better? I hope so, because I suspect there really is little difference in out opinions. Mostly semantics. Your America and mine would still be a great improvement over the current one.

What I meant was that I and my ancestors should have been more outspoken.

I fear that mozel and I will be disagreeing for the rest of the night on the definition of one word that I should not have used. I hope the rest of my posts do not cause as much commotion. Hard to tell in advance what one word can do. Then the main point of the rest of the paragraph is lost.

Perhaps you underestimate the average American. I am talking about rural America where the trade is mostly by barter, the independence of the North Dakotan farmer, the self sufficiency of the Mainer to solve problems with almost nothing except muscle and nature itself, the occupants of Salt Lake city who understand the meaning of self sufficiency, the Oregoner and Northern Californian with their love of natural wealth -- given just by being close to the great outdoors. All people who live there are wealthy, and many know it, even if they have no money. The shrimp boaters in New Jersey ( hope there are some left ) , and their compatriots in Coos Bay or Puget Sound.

I think you and I are still talking about two different things. I am still proud to be an American, even if I do have my doubts at times -- the greatest when I go to Toronto for the annual visit, and then go back to the US. Canada is of course far more socialistic than we are, but it still is a step back nearly 10-20 years when things were better in the US -- when you could walk at night in the Golden Gate Park or Central Park without fear of being attacked.

Think of the political surge behind Clinton, when his supporters thought that he -- as an unknown -- would be the breath of fresh air that we needed. Think of H Ross Perot's supporters, who for a time had a viable third party -- much stronger than the Libertarians.

I think all is not lost -- we just have lost our direction for a time. Underneath that quiet American exterior is a dynamo -- that could be unleashed under the right circumstances, and even our current government could not resist it. The power is in the people, but they must be willing to rise up and take the challenge. The Russian people are similar to us in some ways -- but they lack our rich democratic social memory. A severe handicap they must overcome before Russia will be transformed. They may not make it.

That is my version of the US constitution, even if it is more social and vague -- not couched in as precise and impressive legal terms as yours. My version is an attempt at being one for all Americans -- not a piece of paper, but a social memory. God help us if we lose that too.

I'm sorry to say that I was wrong about Janet Reno. For at least one year she has done her best to impede Kenneth Starr's investigation. I think it is because she is afraid of losing her retirement for her medical condition -- Parkinson's, I think. Too bad the Republicans have no way of ensuring her retirement. Hard to believe they couldn't support her somehow. Unless, of course, the reasons for her actions are more complex than meets the eye. Either way, we don't have the strong firm leadership of the attorney general and the independent investigator of the Nixon era. And -- the apparent crimes committed are far worse than a relatively trivial breakin and coverup. In those days, a breakin was not considered trivial. Oh, for the good old days when good and bad were easier to spot.

http://www.abcnews.com/sections/us/DailyNews/clinton_wrap_050898.html

You will become part of the collective

Resistance is futile

You will be assimalated

My main hope is that when the chips are down, the American people will defend themselves within our political system. I do not wish the alternative, but that is still better than a dictatorship.

We are collectively all to blame if our democracy has weakened to the point where grass roots political change is no longer effective. During the thirties, such things were tried in the US, and they failed. Let us hope that we are not following the way of Rome after Caesar. I would rather not be part of the sunset of US democracy, but rather part of an eventual rekindling of its flame. That is more important to me than traveling to the stars.

It is sites like Kitco that make me think that all is not yet lost.

That 1.5 trillion may not look like much vs 40 trillion, but it is a highly liquid form of debt. And -- a run on US dollar reserves can occur any time there is a currency crisis anywhere in the world -- since dollars are the primary reserve currency everywhere. Everytime there is a major crisis somewhere , someone like AG must step in and put out the fire on our financial shores.

Are we going to keep doing this indefinitely until the day finally comes that the FED cannot put out the fire? Probably. This time we made it without interest rate turmoil. Barely, apparently.

If saner/wiser individuals were on the bridge, so to speak, we would phase out the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Then our risk for currency conflagration would be much less. Even then, I doubt we will ever get our debt situation under control, except the hard way. But at least we would have a fighting chance.

But -- you have a 'little' problem. The new debt that you created. Where does it go? The annual budget? No! BC et al would be livid, as that would imply that it is the President's problem, and he just balanced his budget for the first time in 'X' years. So, you roll it over into the official national debt -- it has to go somewhere -- because this is a real debt.

My guess is that our official national debt will increase nearly 1 trillion dollars or so over the next two or three years.

Very disturbing thought, isn't it? We do not just have social security and entitlements to worry about. We have all those dollars in foreign countries which don't bother us at all right now. Just wait till they come home and all those foreign firms want something substantial in return for their dollars. Lets hope the US markets do well for a while longer, if you get my meaning. Good thing we have something of value -- all of those electronics and computer firms. Without the information revolution, the US would be in much worse shape than it is now.

Food for thought ----

So the dollars can't really disappear, as they reflect our liability to that foreign country.

What are we giving Japan and Europe in exchange for those dollars that they want to sell us, now that gold is not the approved substitute?

What other item of value can we give them?

http://nationaldebt.com/

http://nationaldebt.com/balance_of_trade_with_japan_2.html

Read and enjoy!

As you probably know, the actions of Vit C and E are synergistic. Probably selenium, too. You want the natural kind -- selenium methionate 100 ugram/day -- not the inorganic kind, which you can more easily overdose on.

I wonder -- what would happen to the markets if interest rates went up two-three percent in a few days due to a dollar flood? Frightening thought!

Those little bitty trade deficits are going to get us sooner or later -- sort of like an irresistable force of nature. The US dollar is eventually going to go the way of the Pound Sterling, but it will take a major event to wean the world of their addiction to the US dollar -- more than just another Oct 97 SEAsian crisis -- it will need to be a world-wide crisis, IMHO.

65 million people ( just 1/3rd of adult Americans and more worldwide ) each buying one or two 1oz Eagles, Maple Leafs, etc. will likely SQUIRREL them away for posterity - FOR THEIR KIDS. These buyers would NOT usually sell them back - the coins will stay in circulation somewhere - even if in pawnshops.

65 million ounces would soak up 2,000 metric tons of GOLD.

Such demand would drive the POG up and make for HAPPY GOLD BUGS!

Instead of just reacting to market moves - can Kitcoites influence the market by selling such an idea to the right people who can implement it?

Maybe you can explain to me why the US reserves are dwindling if there is a flood of dollars back to the US. That does not make sense to me. Interest rates really haven't budged.

Clearly something is up, regardless.

Gold and Silver Index ( I:XAU )

Last

83.84

High

85.05

As of

03:48PM

Low

83.28

Change

+1.09 1.31%

SDRer -

What IS a trade deficit?

I submit that it is meaningless

I can argue this by cut and paste

Yes

RS-

I also, was an NCO.

We BOTH worked for a living, yes?

and a one and a two.......

-----------------------------------------

I smoke two joints in the mornin'

I smoke two joints at night...

I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints

and then I feel alright

....smoke two joints

that's what I like.....

-----------------------------------------

this is ANOTHER way to treat malaises ( sp ) ....or more commonly.....whatever is buggin ya'....EH! ;- ) Or it could at least help someones appetite after a full dose of *chemo*. Munchies, etc...

Don't think we are off subject here. A good oz of some *cronic* ( or so they say ) .... ( wink ) is the price of one oz of Platinum ( give or take, depending on El Nino years ) ......uh huh. I have been studying price charts and will be ready when CBOT or COMEX decide to trade *cronic* futures with OPEN OUTCALL. Go long Bud short Plat spread, etc. I am mailing Ted the Charts as I post.....he will compile the data and get back to us.......if'n it don't go up in smoke. ( just kidding lgb I don't inhale ) .... ( haven't exhaled in a while either ) .......ohmy ( ! )

( can one or ANOTHER guess the band who sings that one ) ....StudioR ( ? ) ....Ted probably could. It was a Friday night ritual at 4:00 on K-fog in Bay area.......LGB should know...

away...to work

EB40

Sorry, Bart -- I will stick more gold related topics for the rest of this quiet day.

Word from in the pits is that there is a huge order ( 50 million oz + ) waiting at 5.75 silver. This would seem to put a floor on this market, yes?

Yes

Thank you.

Now, may I offer the proper showing of respect to one who has served his country?

I salute you.

LGB: Did you actually read that stuff you posted? Will anyone else? Two years ago I read up on alternative medicine, and pulled references on Vit C, selenium, omega-3 fatty acids, Vit E, convinced myself they were worth taking and have never regretted the decision. I know you are a doubting thomas on such matters, so you should read Linus Pauling's treatise on Vitamin C. It does for me what he claimed -- I have not missed a day of work due to a cold or other infectious illness since I started taking these vitamins - even with other family members sick at home. It is likely that over the next few years we will learn more about the antioxidants, and find that some are much more effective than others. I feel like an idiot not realizing this twenty years ago when Passwater and others published the first work on such matters. I was much less well informed at the time.

Only you lose if you do not learn about antioxidants, and read the fringe stuff such as the Orgone and try to extract the facts. I must admit I do not believe most of what I have read about the Orgone, but even if 10% is true it is significant.

( 1 ) Resorting to ridicule can be a symptom of a subtle but irritating and perhaps nagging insecurity about the soundness of one's own position, or a frustration over the inability to clearly and finally rebut the opposing position with fair play. It invariably diminishes an argument, IMO.

( 2 ) If something works, it works, whether or not we understand how. I know of noone who understands gravity ( or the strong nuclear force ) , but most serious scientists accept both ( some explanations have been proffered ) .

I am no fan of homeopathy. But we cannot rebut it with ridicule or with our own inability to conceive of a mechanism for it.

We can say, There is no indication that it really works.

My biggest problem with the skeptic ( not that you are one exactly ) is the arrogance that does not allow for the existence of dynamics totally foreign to the skeptic's understanding. That is a difference, IMO, between the skeptic and the cautious, humble reasoner. The one instinctively rejects what he cannot fathom, as if to do otherwise were an admission that he is limited by his nature from understanding all things; the other allows for what may be while embracing what is.

If you would allow me, the one wishes he could devour the entire tree of knowledge, while the other knows he cannot, and is satisfied with the fruit of the other tree.

However, the reason behind the popularity of the National Front is mostly social and economical.

France as much or even more than any other country is an open country where multiple people from different origins and cultures mixed over centuries of invasions.

The invasion that french people are witnessing now is different.Hundreds of thousands of hatefull people enter FRANCE illegally each year with the blessing of a mostly socialist administration. They claim social benefits to the extent that the system is collapsing, they violently protest when FRANCE go to war in the gulf, they riot in suburbs , burn thousands of cars each year, raid supermarkets, organize drug dealing and get social housing when 6 million french or legal aliens are without a job or living at poverty level.

The introduction of the EURO will create massive unemployment in FRANCE which has the least competitive job market in EUROPE.

No doubt the National Front might size the power in the next 10 years.

As much as I appreciate your attempt to make sure no one here gets ripped off by crooked homoepaths, your mind appears to be as tightly clamped shut on this subject as those financiers who think gold is a barbaric relic.

In my case I tried a herbal drink seven years ago and it stops many minor ailments in this old body. Within two days, I noticed several beneficial effects not even promoted by the person selling the snake oil ( that's what my son called it because he wouldn't even try it ) .

Being a relatively logical and objective guy, I have gone off of the drink for two weeks several times to see what would happen and each time felt much better after drinking it again. I am satisfied spending about $30/mo and not getting sick.

If I were dieing from cancer and had participated in the doctor's remedy of near death chemotherapy, I would be willing to try just about anything instead of going home to die as my doctor suggests. It's obvious to me that the medical industry has many shortcomings. The last time I saw a doctor for a minor problem, it cost me $300 and I felt ripped off because he didn't help a bit. Aspirin kills more people than vitamins each year.

Me thinks you protest too much.

Last

84.48

High

85.05

As of

12:29PM

Low

83.28

Change

+1.73 2.09%

away....to buy England by the £

Éß

away.....from the phone

Éßtestinghismetal ( mettle )

and I'll be damned if I waited too long to pick up some mini-spoos ( I gamble less money ) ......I was waiting for today like Oldman said....it may have started a bit early, YES ( ? ) Had my prices studied, picked and purchased ( in my mind ) ......... ( oh hell ) .....there will be other times, OK.

go lakers ( ! )

The gold market is AB

Yes

It is

A friend ( who owns these, and was about to explode ) just threw this on my desk, from the current Oxford Club Newsletter:

WASHINGTON ENDS SWISS ANNUITY TAX DEFERRAL

The IRS recently ended tax deferral on most Swiss and foreign annuity contracts. The law affects all annuities issued since April 7, 1995. The admirable Swiss tradition of tax deferrment and non-reportable Swiss franc diversification has effectly been halted. As the annuity owner, you now have to declare all yearly anniuty interests, dividends and currency gains as personal income on your 1040 U.S. tax return.

CNN has a few interesting articles, try going to

http://www.cnn.com/SEARCH/

and putting in the word cancer. The one article in particular I was looking for is at

http://cnn.com/HEALTH/9805/05/cancer.everyman/

best wishes for you and your friend.

I would guess that the safest time to jump back in is just after the China debt situation surfaces in a big way -- devaluations, etc., and panic in Hong Kong.

Is the date on that article 1997

or is my screen busted

By the way, he stated in his will that his papers be sealed fo xx years -- don't remember how long -- so that the 'powers that be' could not burn everything. I think he succeeded. One of my many goals in life is to unravel the truths about his study of the 'Orgone'. Incidentally I think the Quantum Superfluid of the Aether ( ZPE ) may consist of two superfluids -- one positive and one negative. The atmospheric potential of the earth is negative, so that reflects an imbalance between + and -. What WR may have been talking about is the actual balanced Aether -- which is electrically neutral. This is much harder to measure, and to date the only device I can think of is a capacitive device based on the Casimir effect ( experimentally proven assay for the ZPE/Aether ) . Would be interesting to put one of these devices inside one of WR's boxes. His Orgone energy weather modifying cannons are beyond my comprehenion, however. A quantum superfluid could act at a distance from the cannon, so I cannot exclude his claims completely. The quantum superfluid Helium III does strange things, too.

My intuitive guess is that the next 3 months may be a period of market weakness, but I doubt a 20% drop as you predict. Perhaps you will find that your model works for a time, and then it doesn't -- just like the Bradley siderograph. Your model probably works best on time scales shorter then the temporal trend of your 5 th order polynomial you use to eliminate non-stationary behavior. Markets have a tendency to change their rules of behavior abruptly. I must admit I am struggling to make a dynamic model as good as yours appears to be.

All: I think the US markets may go up today -- that is what the SEAsia market pattern suggests.

OK.

away...........zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Éß

salty/jman.......we bottled last week and will taste some on Saturday. yum-yum. I will mail ya soon regarding.....this&that.

away...to enjoy this.....this kitco

ÉßfeelinGrooooovy

oh Ted......could you, would you witness the Sonic thrashing last night........ohmy.

Nay NNCL......

Keens eyes

Looking forward

Yes

I don't know the answer to your question. Perhaps gold, as before, will prove to be viewed as valuable. Perhaps we are entering into a new world where abstract symbols in cyberspace represent all wealth ( See my posts of last Saturday ) .

I don't know which way it will fall. I'm just a lowly gold peddler looking our troubled sister squarely in the eye.

I believe that most here are buying gold for the right reasons.

Some, however, may be buying too much, too soon.

Yours is a new name, or one I don't recognize.

You are now of Kitco blood

Yes

JIN -

Thank you for adding perspective

Good luck

RJ

RS -

Yours was called Vietnam

Mine was called Beirut

Both were noisy, yes?

Blood was the same color, yes?

Good men died, yes?

Yet we came back

Are we the heroes?

Take your sanctimonious crap elsewhere

Yes