themissinglink: Silver is a lot of fun! One doesn't have to worry so much about every single grain of dust in the floor sweepings, they can afford to make bigger castings than gold ( like the anticipated 215 gram deer+sprue I'm trying to work up the courage to try ) and it allegedly keeps away vampires.

All: Golden dreams!

An alternative dx is more of the same for a while - since the Swing chart looks pretty tame. Any 'lockstep' patterns outside the computer stocks?

Part of the reason I don't expect a market crash earlier than this fall is because of the 'sunspot' effect. Another reason is the Oldman's comments that the market bull will not end without a real battle for a time. An interest rate hike would make me bail out of everything but gold equities in a hurry. One day regardless -- one of those swings on your swing chart will be the last one -- and the lock step indicator will be in synchrony for the last time.

By the way, did I mention that the Worden Brothers think that Japan is 'overbought' technically? Could be the final bottom for them. Depends on China, I think.

According to Gary North's most recent 'remnant review special report', the average Japanese has $50,000 in savings vs $4,500 for the average American. And -- the average American household has $70,000 debt ( the house, I guess ) . The next runner up is UK with $35,000 debt, Germany with $28,000, France with $28,000, Netherlands with $5,000, and Switzerland with about $2,000. Gary also said that US debt burdens of the $30,000 - $50,000/yr income household increased from 12% or so in 1983 to about 23% in 1995. Since this salary range is where about 43% of all US consumption occurs, this is especially ominous, given that interest rates have been dropping.

I do not know where Gary North gets his figures, but he has been generally reliable in the past, and they make alot more sense than the superficial debt figures of Harry Dent. His books would have been much more credible if he had honestly considered variables other than just the baby boomer consumption effect, and the 'S-curve'.

Good luck! Buy the way still have sp-500 puts that expire Dec 98, just in case.

Good night all..................

Remember one other thing, all of the 'stuff' in and on this planet, has always been here. Sure, we may have re-arranged a molecule or two, but I think that in the few billion years that the earth has been here, nature has already tried most of the combinations already... I don't presume to think that we are smart enough to know 'what's best' for the planet, seeing as how we are just a part of the grand experiment.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/entertainment/story.html?s=z/reuters/980422/entertainment/stories/online_notes_4.html

All: Let's not forget that 2yk is not the only computer-related problem we could have. Other possible problems include unexpected effects of unscrupulous computer hackers funneling our cybercash, or an unusually big solar flare knocking out power in large sections of the country.

You may ( or may not ) be surprised to learn that the tree huggers are largely ignorant when they are not downright and purposefully misleading.

You may also want to reread Genesis for a corporate statement of purpose on human uses of natural resources.

What I find especially significant is that this is probably what triggered our current gold rally of the last two days. Rumor -- not fact is all that is necessary. Not long ago, rumors of gold sales would make the gold price go down.

Do you have an actual news byte from the Bundesbank, or are you quoting speeds post from this AM?

By the way, right now, computer stocks are showing a stunning comeback, a bullish wave which I am riding for the next few weeks or so, before my natural gold buggish instincts get the better of me. I figure the current rally of these US market flagships merit waveriding -- good practice for the Gold bug Tsunami. Perhaps the computer bear is over for a time.

European equities are very bullish right now, as it appears that they are coming out of their recession. Looks like that 1 trillion of bad SEAsian debt is being rolled over as future inflation.

Personally, I think the craziness of the US equities market is not over, and I doubt a demise in the markets in 3 days. I would be very interested in seeing your reasoning for the demise of the US markets -- by next Tuesday, I believe. The markets will need an external shock of some kind to collapse -- we don't have that yet. Oldman predicts a ( mild? ) correction soon followed by a final blowoff with major bear market beginning this year. If Oldman is right, we goldbugs will have the times of our lives until this fall. But -- in the fall, we must be ready for a possible gold bug Tsunami crash, especially if we have had a good 2x+ gold equities rally.

DROOY.1.1472M

ECO......2.0709M

FCX......1.0924M

HM.......3.0102M

NEM.....2.0808M

BGO.....987K

CDE.....450K

HL.......465K

RANGY.440K

It is a fact that they may wish to sell against a 200 dma puncture, but it is also true that some folks only BUY when this event transpires. If this holds, we could be looking at $350-380 for this present leg up.

- c

Thank You.

Actually, the first signal I got on any of my charts that Gold might be nearing a bottom was given back on December 16, 1997 when the $A Gold price jumped after having hit a low which almost precisely duplicated its low back in July 1997, just after the RBA Gold sale announcement.

Since then, every move on the $US Gold price with the notable exception of the actual Jan 12, 1998 low has been signalled in advance by the $A Gold chart. The latest signal came two weeks ago when the $A Gold chart formed a big breakaway gap.

Gold has now broken through its post 1996 downtrend on every major currency chart, INCLUDING the $US chart.

I have updated the $A-$US Gold comparison chart on my website.

I guess Another was talking about a one World Government! Heaven help us all!

Question to you all -- just what will be the price that Germany asks for? The official rate of about 310/oz US, or will it be much higher? If you want something really bullish, how about finding that Germany got $400/oz or similar price! That did happen at the end of the last gold war in the 70's ( forgot exact date ) and it could happen again!

We should all be on the lookout for details concerning this sale, and calculate the value per ounce. My guess is that it will be before the official launching of the Euro on 1/1/99, but I really don't know.

http://www.fame.org/research/library/mak-001.htm

a quote from that 1974 piece:

...the world's monetary affairs are likely to develop along one of the following lines: Upvaluation of gold by the major European countries as part of their efforts to establish an economic and monetary union....

thoughts from NightWriter:

With the disproportionate share of influence that LDNs ( less-developed nations ) hold in international fora, and their relatively low gold holdings, a world move toward gold would normally be unlikely. It is fortunate, however, for goldbugs ( and possibly for humanity ) that the coalescing of local transnational economic interests is occurring amongst those nations ( the EU ) that have significant AU reserves.

Concurrently, the gold-rich nations of Russia and South Africa have undergone internal political transformations in the past decade that have made them more politically acceptable to the body of nations, thus perhaps rendering more palatable the thought of migration toward a greater role for gold in international monetary affairs. The other gold-rich nation, USofA, politically acceptable or not, is for at least the time being the alpha dog.

Interesting times. Perhaps the insanity of a baseless international monetary system will turn out to have been as fleeting as the morally relative morass of communism.

{For other, more worried lurkers, no I'm not the government informant} :^ )

Here's a fun link for palladium. Remember Pons and Fleichman? http://world.std.com/~mica/cftsci.html

Fanaticism-- the redoubling of effort when sight of objective is

lost. George Santanyana. See: Tim McVey

I wonder if that translates to losing sight of objectivity as one's stock portfolio doubled and redoubled.

( annualized ) 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year

Ave. growth fund 43% 27% 19% 17%

Ave. gold fund -31% -11% -2% -2%

Source: Lipper as of first qtr. ( 3/31/98 )

http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/germgold.htm

Interesting related link: http://www.vwc.edu/wwwpages/gnoe/avd.htm

Disclaimer: Remember, I'm just an investor not a physicist. And if somebody decides to sue me over any of my opinions or discussion here both they and their lawyer can kiss my...er... donkey.

For the big demand usage ( catalysts ) , Pt and Pd are mostly interchangeable, and manufacturers will switch to the least expensive material. Palladium also has some electronics applications, & I don't know whether a switch to Pt is possible there.

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the prospects for further increases in information density; for now

BOOKs with more information simply use more pages. This makes them

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Each sheet is scanned optically, registering information directly into

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http://chart1.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=cobrand&onbad=cobrandsymb&site=avidtrader&symb=dell&time=3&x=36&y=10&sid=1564&sec=c&xyz=2494094&s=20579

¡ÖhM¥!......stock split short while ago and it's screaming.....I WANT TO GO OVER $100.00!!!!!!! Yahooooo!!

away..no really

Éß

-----------------------------

CURRENCIES: The dollar was bid against the mark at the New York

open after several Bundesbank officials quashed growing market

sentiment that German interest rates may rise sooner rather than

later, dealers said. Meanwhile, the dollar lost ground against the

yen as senior Ministry of Finance official Eisuke Sakakibara added

his voice to a growing chorus threatening possible central bank

intervention. Dollar/mark built upward momentum at the open and

started higher at 1.7940 marks, up from 1.7880 at Tuesday's close.

Dollar/yen was lower at 130.55 from 131.25. See Full Story at

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2553837916-7b8

-------------------------------

can this be bullish for ¿POG?......i will be gone for a time....YES.

go gold...

away...to work

ÉßßM£uhuhiknow߃D

Incidentally, the Worden Brothers think that technically, Japan is 'overbought'. I think it is really hard for us to determine whether the Japanese are in real trouble, and won't act until they are at the brink, or whether they are about to fall into the brink. They may surprise us. Just think what it would be like if the US ( or Australia ) was at the brink. Would we have the savings reserves to bail ourselves out? Almost certainly not!

I would be interested in what your swing index says now. We may have a correction, but the baby boomers are not likely to give up yet. A european market rally seems more likely now -- any idea how much cash that will suck away?

I guess we need to keep close tabs on the money flow into mutual funds.

http://www.gold.org/Pages/Home1.htm

EMU and gold - they go together has dates and members etc.

There is a phase in May 98 to Dec 98.

Hope that helps.

( see MS 'NOTE' ) ........use above info at own risk...uh huh.

away...to watch in awe palladium's skyrocket.... ( wow ) .

Éßefuddled ( nonalcoholic ) befuddlemant ( stupified ) ( huh ) ( ? )

Bullion's and Gold Stock Indices performance in recent days herald the NEW GOLD BULL. Nearly all have decisively broken their 200 Day Moving Averages - and on volume. Consequently, it is obvious to everyone, all forms of precious metals investments will OUT-PERFORM the 'paper' markets in 1998. What we need to decide is WHICH securities will provide the highest rate of return. To address this concern I offer the insightful and very timely report authored by the POLARBEAR and John Disney - indisputably one of the world's most knowledgeable experts on South African Gold Stocks, and the political stability of those environs.

Although the incisive report is called RANDGOLD EXPLORATION, it contains abundant data on three of South Africa's best: Harmony Gold Mines ( HGMCY ) , Durban Deep ( DROOY ) and Randgold Exploration ( RANGY ) . All are traded in the US as ADRs - and are indeed enjoying a good day:

HGMCY…Up 7.7%

DROOY…Up 6.5%

RANGY….Up 4.4%

The entire report may be read at the following website. Pls notice it will be necessary to delete the space in the URL just in front of the word -eagle before pasting it to your Internet locator:

http://www.gold -eagle.com/editorials_98/polarbear031798.html

http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml

for spot use Barts page or Vronsky's, I don't seem to have problems with the chart page.

http:///gold.live.html

good stuff, EH?

away...to watch gold sputter and spit and kick and scratch and moan through MASSIVE resistence......bears will be out starting soooon... ( ? ) .

ÉßMountyAdmirer...¡ohmy!

that furrysteen thing seems to have...... ( poof ) .....gone...perhaps he's on the 'blower' to Johny Cochran.....EH? Hide the bloody gloves ( ! ) ...and clean off your Bruno's.....uh huh.

all EB's posts are subject to the, now, infamous MS disclaimer...

Gold bullion prices are indeed cyclic. In absence of extraneous influences ( war, political unrest in a major area, and/or other international calamities ) , there is a seasonal trend in gold prices.

According to a study made by an internationally recognized financial research organization, investors should be alert to the seasonality in gold prices. The study covered the 13-year period from 1982 through 19994 -- basically the major portion of the long bear market, which began in January 1980 when gold futures reached $850 per ounce.

The study results demonstrate bullion prices usually begin the year with first quarter weakness - which is worst in March. This is followed by increased strength in the price to August, when gold begins its second weakest month. Subsequently, the gold price trend strengthens to yearend.

The report asserts there may be identifiable reasons for the regularity of the gold cycle. March celebrates the end of the Chinese New Years festivities, the end of the Indian marriage season, and commencement of the Islamic holidays. August weakness is attributed to traditional summer vacation time in Europe. Similarly, the 11 weeks ( three months ) prior to Christmas account for 40% of jewelry sales, meaning good levels of fabrication demand are experienced in September and October, allowing prices to strengthen. And price strength at yearend is also typically window dressing, since most producers and gold mutual funds use yearend prices for published statement purposes ( Annual Reports to the public ) - and therefore have a vested interest in higher prices, causing prices to be bid up.

Gentlemen, needless to mention the year's weakest month for GOLD just ended ( March ) - albeit bullion prices have ALREADY BEGUN TO RISE. Subsequently, based upon gold's 13-year seasonality study, we should be enjoying higher bullion prices for the next four months. OH, and an added gold price booster will be the announcement by the EMU in May as to amount of gold backing ear-marked for the new Euro. Expert consensus estimates the gold backing will be between 15% to 30% -- with most educated bets on the latter. For the Euro to see the light of day as a weak currency would ensure its STILLBIRTH. Frankly, I credit Europe's financial powers to be with more common-sense. Noteworthy to remember is the fact that Italy's currency is already 30% gold backed, France's currency is 50% gold supported, and if I'm not mistaken the ultra-conservative Swiss Franc 100%. All logic forces one to conclude the Euro will have a very strong gold backing.

CONSEQUENTY, gold mining stocks should indeed appreciate - perhaps even substantially.

History demonstrates that succeeding bull markets always take out its past highs. This one will be no exception. Consequently, when the looming gold bull market progresses to that stage, we will probably see each of the following three securities again reach their March 1997 highs. The expected per cent appreciation of these securities follow. You may verify my figures by going to the websites listed below - just set default parameters for 3-years/weekly and Stochastics for an 8 period, and a Simple Moving Average of 40:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/_charts/achart.htx

http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/R/RANGY.html

http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/g/D/DROOY.html

http://www.stockmaster.com/sm/trmf/F/FSAGX.html

XAU will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs:..Only …21%

FSAGX will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: …....80%

DROOY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: ….270%

RANGY will appreciate this per cent to reach 1997 highs: …..480%

Place your bets, Gentlemen…

http://WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM/wp-srv/WPcap/1998-04/22/027r-042298-idx.html

I wonder what the anti-gold spinmeisters will think of next in their counterattack.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/top_stories/story.html?s=z/reuters/980422/news/stories/microsoft_3.html

The part I have most trouble with, is that the strongest mini-gold bull is most likely just before the big equities bull's demise. It will take alot of agility for the Kitco gold bug to ride the 'big one' toward the beach. I know I will try.

aurator: Appreciate your big and little gold bull. The little one is more dangerous in real life, too, because it is the one before the market falls. And, the little one ( as Oldman is saying ) is likely to be strongest when the equities markets are at the end of their trend.

Beware the gold bug Tsunami -- in fact the higher it gets, the greater risk of a crash, when it hits the beach along with our old equities bull.

After the equities crash, whenever it comes - gold will shine even more. Then the big gold bull will reign.

Nonetheless, Ag is the best numbers buy around. If I was a pagan you might say I worship the god...Argentinus.

Yes! Way back when.

jab, jab...post, post...hook, hook. Then, BOOM! Sheller delivers the mommy punch. :-0

( hmmmm-aaah ) Just like the old days. Back at 400. :- )

A sign of better things to come.

I find it hard to believe that this bull market will crash in the fall, unless some major external events occur, such as a Japan crash, or oil crisis. I think you did say also that you expected considerable turmoil for a time, since the market bulls will not give up easily. Year 2000 seems to me a more likely convergence point of bearish factors, namely because a Clinton - Starr meltdown/Y2K/psychological confidence crisis might all come together.

I am curious about your opinion regarding being in precious metals stocks if the markets did crash -- in my opinion a market liquidity crisis with margin calls is likely to hit all equities, even gold stocks, though they probably won't have as far to fall. I will bail out of most of my gold equities if I see major turmoil ahead -- I am very mindful of the 1987 events with gold stocks.

It will be interesting if RJ is also long on gold. Incidentally when you say you are long gold, what percentage of your liquid assets are long? Currently I am about 15% long, and am awaiting the right time to add to my holdings.