There are longer term repercussions that come about as a result of this under investment. The low price of Gold itself will not encourage any new development. That will only ( as far a these Canadian Jr.s can affect ) hinder the securing and development of new Gold sources. That coupled with the Bre-X fear factor will in all likelihood result in a drop in the gold development activity, although I have not seen any numbers for 1997.

But at the same time, there are Jr.s that are securing and developing fine properties, and they probably have as much leverage and opportunity as any part of the gold sector given that they are at rock bottom.

Prechter has always maintained that gold will go to $103 before $600 and that cash will be king ( your dollar shortage ) . Largely Prechter's gold call was based upon an incorrect analysis of exactly when the top in gold occcured. Jack Frost correctly judged that the orthodox top was in September of 1980 at ~$720. This makes a major difference in Elliott wave terms as to where the preceding 4th wave bottom lies. But enough of that!

Marc Faber was wise enough 18 months ago to see that de-inflation would accelerate largely due to Asian overbuilding, but bonds have not risen dramatically as he had imagined. The reason for all these events is that demand has not contracted as everyone had thought. The Asian overbuilding has kept a lid

As far as publishing and royalties go I will be glad to share both when and f the time comes. But I wouldn't hold your breath for a The Best of Kitco in print. Being in the precious metals business the need for a sideline would materialize only in direct response to a major decline in the price of the metals. I don't think you'd want to see Kitco going into publishing.

EB: I anxiously await the epilogue to your drama.

To All: Our netiquette guidelines ask to avoid making insulting remarks aimed at other participants. As our group grows in size it's become necessary to enforce this rule more swiftly than in the past. Criticism is encouraged when it's eloquently directed at the idea, not at the person stating it.

mozel, ANOTHER: I think you both have spotted what the BIS has over the US. My guess - reading between the lines - is that traditionally the role of the BIS has been to send gold ( or its equivalent ) to certain CB's where it is needed. The BIS commands respect because of the wealth it represents. And -- there are probably 'unwritten' rules about what CB's/countries are to do with the gold they get from the BIS.

When the US/IMF started the 'War on Gold' in the late ( ? ) 60's, their antagonist was the BIS, suggesting that they had broken or wished to break the gold banking rules, and failed to return something that was not theirs. The US eventually lost the war, and we had the inflationary crisis that culmonated ( sp? ) in 1980. This process is happening again, with slightly different rules, as now the War on Gold includes gold derivatives, and the US dollar is 'floating'. But again the US/IMF is at odds with the BIS. Again the fiat currency countries will eventually lose, and the BIS will win.

I agree with our new poster that this process cannot occur overnight. The US dollar is the world's currency, so even the BIS can't pull the plug suddenly and let the worlds economic system go up in flames, regardless of what rules the US government has broken. Just as in the past, however, the BIS will eventually win. My guess is that we should expect something like the turmoil when the world came off the British pound sterling standard. Everyone eventually knew the UK was bankrupt, and the world shifted to the US dollar. But that cannot happen until there is a strong alternative currency to move to. I don't think we even have a second choice right now. Switzerland is too small.

On confiscation, I agree with Old Gold that we will have plenty of time to get gold 'windfall profits' before the government steps in. Instead of nationalizing the US gold equities, a more likely scenario is that the government fixes the price of gold to be sold to the US government ( all of it ) , or adds windfall taxes, just as they did for oil not so long ago.

One last item -- I finally understand what ANOTHER means when he says 'oil is currency'. He means it in the sense that any oil producer has collateral for future loans -- oil in the ground. Hence it is a form of reserves, even if the oil is really not a currency kept in a central bank.

Again I thank ANOTHER for his thoughtful posts. As I have said numerous times, I believe nothing until I have learned about it from many sources. What we have ANOTHER to thank for presenting fresh concepts -- without his ideas, we might not discuss all of the right topics.

Farfel, I agree with your comment re a new balance needing to be struck between the consuming world, namely the U.S. and the producing world. An Indonesian worker making sandals for Bata, can no longer afford to purchase a pair of those sandals for a days wages. This convenient game played since the 2nd WW, that of a US consumer turning over US $ for inexpensive foreign goods or labor, is coming to an end.

Oil is the potential spark, the massive discrepancy between the US consumer and the worlds working producer is another, and the new currency alignment, the Euro or a new Asian currency are all adding up to a massive assult on the current 'arrangements' as we know them.

If one uses a Tropical zodiac, you are correct about Mars/Aries. However if one use a Sidereal zodiac, the period that both planets are in Aries runs from 4/24 to 5/14. As you know, some astrologers feel Sidereal is more accurate. So let's wait until the ides of May before discarding any Nostradamus predictions.

mozel ( @ANOTHER ) ID#153102:

Was Gold Leasing by CB's an accidental mistake or an intentional mistake do you think?

Mr. Mozel,

This world of money, it is a fierce one! I ask all, does anyone know a money manager with money for loan at 2%? No? Does not even the bank of Canada sell gold outright and receive high interest on cash? Is a CB that sells/leases gold dumb? NEVER!

If they sell gold, a way is clear to bring gold back for the nation! Canada has local mines, Australia has local mines, Belgium has South African mines! If they lease gold, it is for a purpose to buy something for the new supply to the market! The interest on the loan is for public view, as a free gold loan is not acceptable!

It truly started with Barrick, in Canada in the 80s. It was a thin market, but grew big in oil. I think intentional mistake that was, as is said, trial balloon?

Thank You