Did anyone look at the weekly gold and CRB/XAU charts that I posted earlier this evening? The latter chart is very informative.

Robnoel -- I called a guy a socialist today for his views that he expressed to me. His response? He agreed. Thinks $3 to $4 a gallon gas is good for us because it cost that much elsewhere. Also says that guns are bad, need to be banned. I asked if he ever heard of the former Soviet Block.... I was labeled one of those right wing loonies ( sorry Canadians ) who are trying to bring down BUBBA.. :- ) ) What a compliment!

Good night all...

http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/SOAFRAt.html?source=core/dbc

As much as I like DROOY, it is the only gold investment I have which hasn't gone up this week. All my funds look great, and BMG has jumped like a jackrabbit, but good ol' Durban just sits there. I'm ready for it to launch. Meanwhile, I love this market.

One way to play SA is with ASA on the NYSE. Puts and calls are available somewhere.

I also was able to find XAU going back to at least 1985. In addition, Van Eck International Investors, INIVX, a predominately SA investment fund, was started in 1955. US Global Gold Shares, USERX, was begun in 1969. Lexington Strategic Investors, STIVX, in 1974. Most of the early gold funds invested in SA. Now they're in North America and Australia, too. There's a lot of opportunity out there if you want a gold fund.

Gold fund info available at http://www.eaglewing.com

foreign exchange marketplace, according to a recent report from the

Computer Science Corporation ( CSC ) . Single day disruption costs could

reach into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Sustaining Stable

Financial Markets through the Millennium looks at the potential of Y2K

noncompliance problems to trigger systemic impacts. The research

examines the possible effects of failure at a major foreign exchange

player, a group of smaller institutions and a clearinghouse.

CSC based its findings on interviews with 90 representatives of

financial institutions, regulatory bodies, associations and

clearinghouses. In addition, company researchers examined the nature

and volume of foreign exchange transactions, past failure rates, and

failure rate changes as the result of three potential Year 2000

scenarios.

The CSC report identifies Y2K-noncompliance cost and risk categories.

Cautious trading, for instance, involves lost profits as a result of

trading slowdowns or trading limited to only those institutions

considered compliant. Non-compliant transaction costs will mount for

firms that can't satisfy their obligations. Backoffice bottlenecks

will cut throughput, increase operating costs and cause interest

penalties.

The tab for a big bank on a single day could reach upwards of $660

million and $3.3 billion in a 5-day period, according to the study. Big

numbers to be sure. Associated costs of a Year 2000 operational

disruption could be many times greater than the direct costs of the

failure itself, the report notes. ...bottlenecks caused by Year 2000

non-compliance could cause settlement failure rates to jump from the

current 1 percent to as high as 5 percent-a 400-percent increase.

Clearinghouse problems could pose the most expensive risks, with high

end costs projected at more than $1 billion per day or $5.2 billion over

five days.

If settlement failures begin to ripple outward on a large scale, the

study's respondents warn the system may be stressed to the breaking

point, causing significant liquidity or credit problems and threatening

the stability of the market.

If multiple institutions hit the Y2K wall, that could severely test the

ability or willingness of central banks to offer bail outs. The ability

of contingency plans to cope with such a circumstance are unclear, the

report notes, and the heavy demands placed on central banks by such a

contingency could lead to a liquidity crisis. If the central bank's

funds are tied up or unable to be distributed, the system may experience

gridlock.

The report notes that the current level of Y2K preparedness makes the

failure of a clearinghouse, major foreign exchange player or group of

small institutions a real possibility, and that there is no way to

assure that adequate prevention measures will be in place in time. It

appears unlikely that industry-wide risk control initiatives will have

the critical mass or acceptance within the next 2 years to mitigate the

systemic impact of Year 2000 non-compliance.

http://www.nntt.gov.au/

http://www.arts.uwa.edu.au/AnthropWWW/ntcases.htm

Native Title, in its basic form is the right for Indigenous persons to claim unhindered access to land to persue their traditional life style.

Any Aboriginal or part ( 10% ) Aborigibal person can make a Native Title Claim WITHOUT any tru and honest verification or validation of the claim. Essentially, it is Land Rights.

As applied to mineral exploration, in Australia there are three forms of tenements:

1. Mining lease

2. Prospecting lease

3. Exploration lease

Five years ago it was possible to convert from an Exploration lease to a Mining lease, and start mining, within a 6 to 12 month period.

TODAY, it is exceptionally difficult to convert to a Mining Lease. I would suggest that less than 20 have been granted in Western Australia in the last year - if that ?!

The reason for this is that one MUST negotiate with any given Aboriginal Group for the right to access the land. There

a neat little utility that displays all users that are currently logged on. It displays

the IP address, origin and length of time logged in. See it at

http://www.investor1.com/utilities/utilities_frame.html

May need to login to the site ( http://www.investor1.com/chat/chat_frame.html ) to use. Possible backup?

Am I the only one who thinks that the EURO seems to be an entity that is being designed by 'a committee'? What I mean by that is that it seems to be run by consensus right now, rather than like the US or German central banks. I am willing to bet that the honeymoon may be relatively short, or that the implementation of the EURO on 1/1/99 may be initially little more than a show for the media. There was talk about emulating the US FED. I hope for the sake of Europe that this is what is done.

I think one thing we can watch is the volume of trade in EURO currency. If it is much less than the collective trade in the member countries, it is not really being used. Eventually this may lead to the downfall of the EURO if it is not fully implemented in a 'reasonable time', whatever that is.

As 'you know who' would say -- I will be gone for a time -- but I can't seem to make it sound mysterious.

Comments?

REF: John Disney ( Rudyard Disney RSA Bedtime story for Cheesehead and Robnoel )

I would like to add something to Disney's comment about RSA gold reserves, when he said:

10. On Gold mines .. there is nothing anywhere in

the world to match the gold deposits in RSA. If you

want to believe otherwise .. please do so.. just

remember that I told you ... Once.

Our GLOBAL GLOD COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS demonstrates the RSA gold stocks represent the CHEAPEST GOLD RESERVES per share in the world:

· Gold Reserves Per Share

RSA owns nearly SEVEN TIMES more gold reserves per share as North-America

RSA owns nearly FORTY-FIVE TIMES more gold reserves/share as Australian

· Market Price Per Ounce

North-America shares reflect a market price of $138.09 per gold reserve ounce

Australian shares reflect a market price of $172.00 per gold reserve ounce

RSA shares reflect a market price of ONLY $12.13 per reserve ounce

· Market Price Per Ounce - Expressed Differently

North-America gold reserves are more than 11 TIMES more expensive than RSA

Australian reserves are more than 14 TIMES more expensive than RSA

HERMANOS, it ain't even close!

1998's big market play will be in South African Gold Stocks

Re. Big Bang -- I'm seeing a glut of unwanted US$ in the form of off-loaded T-bills and bonds as a result of Japanese deregulation. Am I seeing straight?

Thanks! dj

One item I am not clear on is how EURO CB reserves will be used to buffer the value of the EURO relative to other international currencies. For example, how does the EURO CB decide who to call if reserves run low?

GNP based? Population based? What confuses me also is why the EURO can be supported by less gold resserves - percentage wise - than the member countries? Lastly why are EURO total reserves so low? Is this just because this is the beginning of the phase-in, and most trade will continue for a while in the member currencies? Probably.

What really should be done is outlaw bonds, treasuries, etc in Euros, and issue them only in member country currencies. Then the EURO would be as steady as a currency board, and would need less gold backing. But -- that is not in the cards, is it?

I wonder if member countries are ready for the Euro launch 1/1/99. My guess is that the launch will be 'in name only' so that the deadline will be met. Initial Euro trading volums will be relatively low for some time, with a gradual phase in over years -- so much of this will be for show only for some time to come. Since these comments are from a physicist and not a currency expert, hopefully I will stimulate some discussion, IMHO.

AT THE MOMENT.This has a history of change,like the seasons.Yes,the Mico

Economics ( read people ) are often left out of voting booth,but my post was

to bring to your attention the basic idealism that confidence begins at

home at the grass roots level.Ignoring this basic principal is suicide,

and the Central Bankers and Politicos are well aware of this.We must

take off our North American hat and look at things from a different

perspective.I would like to see more input from Europe here and folks

who have spent quite a few years there.

JAMES: 15% is still along way from what was being blathered about not

that long ago,eh?I'll stick with my 25% for now anyway.

RE:Strength of Euro....I just can't imagine the entire world wants a

weak currency in order to trade with the US.That sounds defeatist from

that countries' global perspective.May be short term..I dunno..but....

I get the feeling the USD being the only game in town is about to change.

ok..gotta run....

the issue,and as stated,I am not convinced they are as prepared as they

say they are.Germany calling this as reason for caution as well.But would

not a larger gold component add security against disaster in this case?

If not,the whole Y2K/gold argument is meaningless.Yes?

My post was trying to deal with the EURO strictly from the confidence

aspect of convincing the PEOPLE of it's sustainability in it's infancy.

This is no doubt the first big hurdle.The individual countries and their

position on who is getting the better deal is what is being tossed around

in the high level meetings.There may be many gripes,but the desire to

make it work will outweigh any one individual countries' stance that may

de-rail it.

Thanks for responding...gotta run....

PS:A close above 303 would have been great today,but looks like the

bears were loaded with ammo at the close.Back on the weekend maybe.....

dj

Does the blame for the recent Arkansas mass murders

lie on 1 ) the lack of gun control or 2} the southern

culture?

I would like to add or 3} an unadulterated criminal

personality behavior?

Talk about a rigged poll. My My My

Are you an investor in hard assets, gold, silver etc?

is straight ahead of them.The reason the ECU has....yes..thats HAS..to

hold a large percentage of gold is quite obvious..well to moi anyway.

The ECU has to have MAXIMUM confidence at its outset.In order to instill

confidence in any large undertaking where change is involved,a degree of

not too far too fast assurance must be conveyed to the PEOPLE.Yes,

the PEOPLE of those countries involved.If they are not confident,the ECU

will die on the streets of Europe,not by some New York country killer

hedge funds syndicate.

Europeans are much less brainwashed than the North Americans.Their past

is one of independent smaller geographical and geopolitical spheres of

influence.They question everything that may be considered a threat to the

individuality of each nation.This not like the forming of the US years

ago through violence.This is not like the forming of Canada's provinces

years ago though the English style court system.This is all taking place

in an era where through instant communication, opinion can change the

perception and confidence overnight during it's infancy.

Still with me?....OK....

The largest common denominator in the hearts and minds of all the folks

involved with this new currency is GOLD.If you endanger the psycological

positive that this denominator posses,you endanger the EURO itself.It

will be suicide to remove it,and the Central Banks know it.All we are

witnessing now is a magic act being played out on a very large stage.

Now you see it...now you don't.But in this case it will be a reappearing

act.First it was gone ( somewhere ) .....now it is back.Twenty-five percent

is my guess.We shall see.

Thank You

HMMH

This ( gold bear ) talk lately of POG rising only in the event of war -- let me ask: Could this Y2K bug be the very worthy opponent against whom ( or which ) we enter into war? True, the Y2K bug is hardly a conventional opponent. But it looms as intractable as any, and with consequences -- ON OUR SHORES no less -- as potentially upsetting as any conventional threat.

Look at the resources only now being mustered against the Y2K bug. ( Isn't that one byproduct of war, the unavoidable extra expenditure of resources? ) Figure the earnings impact on big corporations already showing signs of weakness ( cf. recent quarterly warnings ) .

Just some thoughts. Insights appreciated. Thanks!

dj

Opinions from the oil guru's -- who thinks Venezuela will be cheating again very soon?

Farfel: I think you have the cart before the horse if you have all of your money in gold/gold stocks -- rather than cash -- as that means that you can't buy on downturns -- which are invitable until all the 'shorts' give up. I cannot believe we will move to 340-360 without a royal fight soon.

I think the bullish forces are coming together for gold -- but we must all be very cautious not to buy on rallies and run out of cash. The APH approach works not just with 'day' trading, but works intermediate term. If one is good, the risk is less and the return is amplified almost x2.

If I knew the G Soros long Deutsch Mark/short US dollar scheme was fact, and that the Japanese were buying gold was fact, I would have 50% or more of my liquid assets invested in precious metals. Did everyone see the US Gold comments yesterday?

We all need to watch Japan carefully, because a Japanese implosion would be the end to a Japanese - induced gold rally. Also, the 'powers that be don't want gold to 'rise too fast' as that is a message of trouble in the markets. I don't think we need to worry about the US markets until September unless the US dollar crashes. Very unlikely.

However, stock valuation has become so irrational that any forecast based on macro is difficult ( I am sucking air on my short S&P )

Thus , I don 't think anybody would bank on a stock collapse to short the $.On the other hand , the current account deficit in the US is unsustainable at this pace ( 200 billion/year ) all the more as money flows into the US preventing a $ collapse are becoming very short term investment ( mostly deposit account in the last Q of 1997 - ) This added to a probable stock market crash and maybee more CLINTON stories could damage the dollar.

In Europe , the economic situation is comparable to the one of the US 4 years ago.Therefore there is a potential for rates hike even though enemployment is on the high ( we Europeans are so dumb at economic policy besides the Brits ) And on a relative basis , there is more potential for appreciation for European assets than for US.

Last, if the japanese have to repatriate some assets , it will hurt the $ more than european currencies

ECO..1.4778M

HM...1.3132M

NEM..1.7607M

How about 'back to the Salt Mines'?

Certainly there is a similar terminology between gold and salt. However, I don't think a salt currency would be of much value in or near Salt Lake City -- the US salt equivalent of Fort Knox -- with a twist.

By the way I will go by Fort Knox in a few days -- I will let you know if I see any unusual activity -- where is Goldfinger these days? I haven't noticed his posts in months!

All -- I doubt that Aurator will stay away very long. Just got a little miffed by a single thoughtless post.

away...to w/w

Éßߣ©

go gold.....is Monex-Man feeling his undies bunching

I still think that ANOTHER is English and his aka is bbfisher... ( ohmy? )

You are so right my friend.

Aurator, you stay right here.

a very LOW opinion of MBAs {:- ) ) [which is rather interesting for a professor of finance!]

Experts predict financial software may go haywire if the Dow Jones

Industrial Average tops 10,000. Many software programs are designed to

handle only four-digit Dows, says one software designer, who says that

concern over the D10K problem soon will spawn the usual parade of

opportunists to fix the bug. ( Wall Street Journal 26 Mar 98 )

Dr. Wordsmith, my ( our ) friend - you are the bright spot in my morning each day as I read your posts....... You are needed here for your humor, your feelings for others, and your very special view of the world. I implore you to please reconsider leaving the forum. Please contact me at Silverdolr@webtv.net for some friendly persuasion and conversation.

If the XAU is forming a wedge, wouldn't it project prices lower

than just a test of the bottom? Always enjoy your input!

I began trading metals for a living in 1984. I have risen to the number three broker at Monex, the largest bullion dealer in the world. $880 million opening trades to individual investors in 1997. We have been here 30 years while the rest have come and gone. We are without peer anywhere in the world.

Only number three you say? Out of nearly 100 brokers, the only two guys that do better than I have at least a ten year head start on me. Forget false modesty. A carpenter may admire his cabinet, a plumber reveres a clean pipe, and I'm pretty damn good at trading metals.

Your response to these credentials, and the myriad of accurate calls I have made here over the months, is derision and scorn. Your prejudice is so deep that you somehow transformed me into a DOW moonie or something. You do not think before you write, I can only conclude you do not think before you buy.

If the latter is true, feel free to call me. I will sell you all the gold you want at a lower price than you can find anywhere else. Takes money though. Got any?

R. J.

800-949-4653 ext 2262

JD -

I have no serious argument as to the direction with our far flung fellow. Gentlemen may disagree. To find who was right, just count the $ at the end. The rest is obvious. My bone of contention was his post of all these Buyers of gold, when some are sellers, and some - China and Russia - are impossible to quantify.

I ask you. Who else on the forum has been as consistent, and correct about timing and amounts of CB gold sales? I still remember being called a fool last Summer when I told the world Germany was selling. When I arrived on this forum, gold was 350 and I announced gold would fall below 300 by the end of the year. I was roundly trounced by the same people that are calling for the big rally today. If they had the courage of their convictions, all their $ would be gone now by simply acting on their own market insights.

I do agree with you though, tomorrow is unknowable and I make no claims to such. But the forces behind the move; they may be seen with clear eyes. Most folks around here are looking for the power behind the moves to such an extent, the entire market passes them by and they are left with blank stares, empty wallets, and soulless eyes.

I simply think gold will retest the lows. Everything, and I mean absolutely everything, points to 280. Maybe a little limp up to 310 - 315, but 280 - 285 will happen before June. The only people seeing bulls in the near term future for gold are those that wish them there.

Been feeding the limes Miracle Grow, which may be the problem. Come spring, gotta' go to the citrus mix. I will save the crop, and I will save the farm. As God as my witness, I will never go without limes again!!!!!!!

OK

Farfetched -

Perhaps you have had head you head buried in the sand for the past months, or are not all that keen on observation. I trade precious metals for a living, for the largest bullion dealer in the world.. It is all I do all day long. I sell gold, pal. When I say don't buy it, I'm taking money out of my own pocket.

Perhaps, like an unhappy childhood, you have some wretched story about being sodomized buy some slick broker, and now rail against them all. How long have you been repeating your mantra? From 400? 380? 350? 300? All the way down? If you imagine yourself clever, read you words, contradictions reside within, and logic is nowhere to be found.

This will be our last exchange. I'm starting to get warmed up, and I'm a little cranky this late on a work eve so this is just the perfect time to flay some fledgling financial phillie, but the challenge you offer does not heat the blood, and I would rather just go to bed.

OK

Farfel -

Every fact I quoted can be found in the links of this site. If you are getting your facts from the Free Willy gazette, or the New Wave Elliot Wave, or The Lone Gunman, or Janet Reno's bathroom magazines. You are wrong. And now you are wrong at the top of your voice. If you choose to respond please make some attempt at actually saying something. If not, I understand, as I am done speaking with you.

I'm in agreement with RJ about the quality of the short term calls here lately. APH - awesome! D.A., I've been trading PAASF daily with the level II quotes I have - short term moves like the rollover one you made the other day are great.

...........hello

oh well.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz... ( opening/closing drawers ala Fred Flinstone )

away...

Éßcan'tplayalone

gogold...hi ted.