Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 23:13

Junior ( ANOTHER @ ) ID#248180:

Copyright © 1998 Junior/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

It appears to me that the strongest position of Oil Exporter Nations outside of the USA is the Threat or actually the Move to full production resulting in very cheap oil for an extended time period. Does this equal the Change or trigger the change?

I do not understand?

You state: “The USA/IMF and its'Hegemoney currency could not withstand cheap oil prices.”

Mr. Junior,

Be very sure to understand this: They can “stand cheap oil prices”. But, it is the loss of having the US$ removed as the “world reserve currency” that makes them “fight” a lower oil price, and the new “world oil currency” that it would bring!

Bring this thought into focus and you will inderstand why Iran and Iraq did fight so long. And why Iraq invaded. The warships are an attempt to keep prices from “falling”! You think long and hard on this!

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 22:44

clone ( Another - a different view... ) ID#269245:

Sir,

I respect your view as it makes much right. But, I ask you, what if? In response to a world wide currency crisis and possible depression, Oil offers to sell it’s reserves for a much lower price than today. For your eyes, I will say, they “drastically devalue oil, using gold”! One producer offers to accept a currency price of $8.00US and a tiny fraction/oz. gold. With all CBs holding much gold, the market dynamics would raise the reserves of many nations several thousand %. Would this not be a welcome to a cash strapped world?

All: I ask you, why did the world go off the gold standard in the early 70s? You have an answer, yes? For all the problems this created, could the countries not just revalue gold upward, to say $300 ( back then ) ? What was the real reason the world entered a period of “freely traded” “managed gold”?

Thank You

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 10:53

jonesy ( Re. Escapism / ANOTHER / Dow Bulls / Euro / Titanic / Sluts Endeared / Violins ) ID#251166:

Sir,

Your post was of much interest for me. The new country, “America” was also a fantastic dream for many. However, for some, this “dream of a great nation” did come true! For all you find to look down on her, she is still held as the “best of the best”. I find this to be a true feeling for myself, also. The greatest changes in history were always found with much confusion and anguish by the very persons that made “just history”,

“great history”!

“find our new world the same from before, as history will look back to see when men changed the perception of value”

thank you

( c ) The New Republic, March 30, 1998

In 1980 when Ronald Reagan divulged his plan to cut taxes, boost defense spending, and balance the budget, the candidate trotted out Greenspan to quell any accusations of voodoo economics. This is an exercise in reasonable budget making, said Greenspan, the a well-respected economics consult earning a living in the private sector. And also: To argue that Governor Reagan's program is irresponsible and nonsensical. In 1984, Charles Keating hired Greenspan to examine Lincon Savings and Loan. Greenspan did, and he then urged Congress to grant Lincon and other S&Ls a legal exemption that would allow it to make riskier investments. Keating, he wrote, is seasoned and expert in selecting and making direct investments and has a long and continuous track record of outstanding success in making sound and profitable direct investments. Greenspan's prestigious endorsement helped Keating win over Congress.

One might suppose that his bit parts in the two greatest economic fiascos of the last two decades--the huge deficits of the 1980s and the savings-and-loan debacle--would dull Greenspan's luster at least a little bit. Instead, he faces ever more pleas to oraculate.

...

The elevation of Greenspan has occurred during an historical moment when the Federal Reserve doesn't have a particularly clear understanding of its job. This is because the guideposts that traditionally steer monitary policy no longer hold much validity. The Fed used to pay a lot of attention to the money supply. The idea was to allow the money supply to grow at a slow but constant rate--fast growth would mean inflation, too slow growth might mean recession. But, because of new financial instruments like money-market accounts and ATM cards, the Fed has a hard time calculating the money supply. You can't base your decisions on the money supply if you don't know what the money supply is.

The Fed used to also follow the unemployment rate. Many economists belived that if the unemployment rate fell below about six and a half percent, inflation would rise. So, if unemployment fell below this point, the Fed would get ready to raise interest rates and slow things down before inflation broke out. But that notion, too, has fallen by the wayside. Unemployment is now below five percent, and inflation is dropping, not rising. The Federal Reserve used to be very confident of how to manage the economy. Now, nobody is.

The point of this is that the Federal Reserve--or at least its chairman--is now more inclined to let the economy run its course and see what happens. Think of Greenspan as a basketball coach: he doesn't strictly choreograph his team's every move; instead, he lets his players play. Since 1995, he has made just one tiny change in interest rates, and that came in March 1997. Essentially, he has done nothing. The strategy seems to work, and of course Greenspan deserves some credit--doing something might have messed up the economy. Nevertheless, it is true that we would have had the exact same monetary policies over the past year if, instead of Greenspan, the Fed had been run by a turkey sandwich.

Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 20:58

Logical ( ANOTHER ) ID#320219:

“ Your proposing an upheaval in international currency- is that why the EMU will be backed by so much gold or do we look else where for the future international currency? Your earlier posts had a much more urgent tone has oils plans been pushed to the right or is the increased gold backing of the EMU a workable solution for the interim? “

Sir,

The large gold backing for the Euro and the “much greater” gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US, is a precursor to an “new world oil currency”, then it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro as “the” “currency/gold” payment for oil. My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity. We will watch this, together, yes? I offer my past thought:

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 23:16

ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Copyright © 1998 ANOTHER/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Neophyte ( Another - ECB gold holdings? ) ID#390249:

Do you know how much gold the ECB will hold as part of its reserves?

Mr. Neophyte,

I do not know. I have knowledge of some discussion for 15% with a individual country holding that is very high. If this is as a final outcome, many CBs will be forced to call in lent gold and buy. I have reason to find this to be as fact!

Date: Sat Mar 07 1998 20:01

Mr. Psyched,

Please reread the most recent posts from Another. Your question should be: Why would the USA buy most of it’s oil from Venezuelan when it would be far cheaper to buy it from the ME using gold? It is possible that the new oil bid will come about with the inroduction of the EURO and give that currency the oil backing!

All:

If the EURO is backed with gold in a large way, oil may be purchased with EUROs and even a smaller amount of gold!

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 14:31, PH in LA ,

Part of the problem for last night was on my end. Two of my post held at one computer and were sent to europe. I will no longer try to “converse” on a “quick basis” as the thought is lost over time. Will address individual posts as able. Some writers offer much thought, but I am unable to speak of each. The “Peat” does do much!

Date: Tue Mar 24 1998 21:23 Thomas ( Doubts ) ID#372400:

“I would agree that the idea of oil-exporters demands to provide gold

as payment for oil is not impossible, provided that Another is right on a major assumption -- that oil-exporters have the control to dictate oil prices. he game looks rather plausible -- oil-exporters keep prices low to make stronger the future shock of huge price increases. “

Sir, Producers do not create the price for oil, the world economy does. Producers can and do “controll” one thing, “full production”! They hold the controll to offer “all out supply” and the $4.00 price that would bring! THAT “controll” is all that is needed to create “correct” political and economic conditions. What creates your “future shock of

huge price increases”? A currency system “that no longer values real things” on equal basis to preceived value of “economic trade”!

Also, you write,

“If some very simple minded people in oil-exporting countries decide to blackmail West with oil -- what would be the outcome?”

Sir, I offer you my posts of past, if this is “blackmail”, I should think your army would be sent to enforce such!

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:22 ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

REPLY:

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:06

Schultz ( ANOTHER ) ID#288349:

Schultz, Your view is a good one. The perception of the US is one of your

view from where you stand. Many do not hold America as a “taker without

cause”. At a low ratio of gold per barrel, with gold priced high enough, the USA would no doubt receive oil, relative to today at perhaps $8.00. The Us gold reserve and in ground reserve would last a great while. Also, the US gold reserve value would increase a great deal!

That, your Washington would understand, VERY WELL!

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 22:07

ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

REPLY:

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 21:35

Tyler Rose ( ANOTHER ) ID#373164:

If, as you say, a major oil producer were to say that they value oil at $x per barrel, and we will take payment 1/2 in dollars or eurodollars and 1/2 in gold, then it would be to the benefit of that oil producer to value gold aslow as possible, in order that they would receive more gold for the 1/2 of the payment in gold.

Tyler Rose:

At this point of time the drive would be to make a usable currency. Thiswould require a high value for gold. For gold to trade with oil on a physical basis would also require perhaps a small fraction of gold/bl.

All would gain from this. The intent is not to destroy the oil market.

said that people are foolish not to be in the

stock market. He said it would be 10 to 15 years

before the market declined to any significant

degree. He said nobody was buying any gold or

silver these days.

Since this man was a coin dealer I was puzzled by

his remarks but when I discovered he wanted $325

for a k-rand his statements began to make sense to

me.

http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1997/971229/fir.html

- Plenty of articles to browse --

http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/

A bank run is 'in progress' in Japan.

Wow! Talk about news blackouts! That makes our news media look like 100% Matt Drudge types.

I think this explains the Japanese US treasury sales. If RD is right, the Japanese government will not be buying gold right now if they are desperately pumping money into any black hole they can find. However, the Japanese people could be buying gold or similar items -- over 100+ million of them. I would. I guess those home safe purchases were no passing fad.

Can anyone confirm this information? Also -- if so, Japan may be an 'ace' away from the final implosion. And -- if this is happening, Hashimoto must have failed at any meaningful banking, etc. reform. I wonder what it takes for the Japanese who loyally trust their government for eons -- decades at least -- to panic and withdraw their cash from the local bank. The average American or European would be much less trusting of their bank if trouble was in the air.

times on this board and others,all one needs do is grant the regular

contibutors a little levity and research the site before flying off with

the same old tired argument of.............

1 ) Goldbugs are ----------------------*

2 ) The Dow is-------------------------*

3 ) Gold is----------------------------*

4 ) The media are--------------------*

5 ) You should have--------------------*

6 ) Don't worry------------------------*

7 ) If you bought ( date ) ----------------*

8 ) If you sold ( date ) ------------------*

9 ) Buy low----------------------------*

10 ) Buy high--------------------------*

Anyone wish to fill in the blanks? Yawn............

And F*.........you are so right.Every time some hero wants to save the

GoldBugs from themselvs for the green green grass of Wally Street,it is

usually after a big rise after a near death experience.They never present

an argument which includes the risk factors and relate to the numbing

gut wrenching experience.They develope amnesia when asked where were

you when the markets hit the last ice berg.Were you on the upper decks

with a life boat waiting,or were you one of the lesser folks locked below

watching the ocean flood in ?

PS:Gee!I guess that was just the first little ice-cube the DOW-TANIC just

hit.Time to speed up me thinks.

BobM:You came with guns a blearing.What did you expect?I thought so.:- )

GoldBugs prepare...we will soon be there..in our little golden boats....

that will surely stay afloat...when the DOW-TANIC hits the berg...the

cries that will be heard.... Moms and Pops last....Gold going up fast!

Bob ...everybody here thinks the financial system is going to crumble. I have thought that way for two years. There are alot of people here who have got fleeced on gold. I've lost maybe 20% in since Sept.97. I don't care about the stock market.I believe the system is about to break...Somewhat. Not total social and economic disaster...but a correction that will burn the boomers.

I don't know if you've noticed but I don't agree with much that is said here but there is one thing I emphatically agree with these people and that is the great economic reckoning is coming.

So if you are a liberal please buy some gold so I'm not the only one to survive.

Remember that age old Chinese curse...May you live in interesting times.

Japan: RD is deeply pessimistic, giving reasons we have discussed many times -- the lack of transparency being one of the most serious matters. A key item I did not know is in regard to unfunded pension liabilities, reaching total levels of 200% of Japanese GDP. Japan has few baby-boomers like we do to subsidize government income, so these are probably due now, even if our unfunded liabilities are about 400% of GDP. Japan will probably try to demonetize their debt to cover all the retired Japanese. This explains the new Japanese interest in commodity funds.

Who's next according to RD? Brazil, he thinks. Nothing said about Europe -- worrisome if those German firms are so debt ridden, and an early Kitco poster mentioned earlier. Looks like RD thinks we are repeating the 1925-1929 scenario.

So RD's scenario is US inflation first before a crash. A key question is how many more times can gold spike down due to the turmoil in other countries before inflation engulfs us. My guess is not much below $280/oz. -- but a world threatening crisis of some kind coming out of Japan could still happen.

What does the U.S. dollar's recent sinking illness mean for your long-term financial health? Our dollar

recently hit record lows against the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark, and the Swiss franc. The Mexican

peso and some other third-world currencies fell even faster. Nevertheless, even the strong currencies

now have only a small fraction of their former purchasing power.

No matter what country may have issued it, paper money never has retained its value. Rising and falling

relative to other currencies like elevators on the Titanic, paper currencies nevertheless sink with the ship.

How can you avoid the money machinations of desperate governments? In the end, gold has been the

only enduring money; spendthrift nations return to gold-based money when their world credit dries up.

Politicians can manipulate the value of your paper money only as long as you believe in mere paper

I.O.U. nothings. To keep you from the facts about gold, politicians and the media have kept most

discussions about it from you. An entire generation knows little or nothing about the store-of-value role

that gold has played throughout history.

So -- the UK does not have all of the gold that they want, or they don't want to sell US dollars, just yet. My suspicion is that if the continental europeans decide that it is time for gold to go back up, England will have little say in the matter.

I have another point that may be important. The US is basking in the role of the world's reserve currency. If the EURO launch is to have any credibility at all, a major sale pitch must be made about how much better it is than the US dollar. Since the european economies are still weak, the EURO sales pitch will not be easy. So anything goes -- even talking about 30% backing by gold,IMHO Gold will become a featured asset to have in Europe, at least till the EURO is well-launched. Just like that new restaurant down the street, the ( EURO ) service will be first rate, for a while at least.

--------------------------------------------------

Date: Wed Mar 25 1998 10:51

The Hermit ( @ Allen ( USA ) - Making it Clear ) ID#374232:

Your post of Mar 24 22:15. Holding solid gold and silver, cash and food, free and

clear. AMEN TO THAT! Thank you.

--------------------------------------------------

if it comes down to it gold will not be too valuable in theses times. Foodstuffs will be of MUCH greater value. The barter system will reign king. My wheat for your apples, etc. Gold Hungry people will laugh. Can't eat it, can't grow it, can't do anything with it.

away....to ask 'clone' ( another kitco kop ) for permission to post off topic stuff

Éß ( scratchinhishead...again ) ©

oh yeah.....go gold.

Monex - Yes, they have since fixed the road only to have ANOTHER storm come and knock it out........ ( w/w ) . Thanks for knocking plat down a little. I needed to p/u some more. Perhaps a wait for retracement is in order ( the gap at 395ish? ) Now cover your limes.... ( can I say that in public? ) . And thanks dude. Vegas and scantily clad nubiles Summer ( ohmy?! )

Donald, how many times is your 'nose-for-news' gonna pull through for me Can I buy you a cold one A nice cup-o-coffee? A vacation in the Carribean?..... ( wait a second, I am getting a little carried....... )

AWAY!!! ( $ ) !

ÉßthankingbigDon©

Interesting -- I wonder how far away the LBMA is from York. Does anyone know if England or the US is buying gold? England will probably not be want to be left out of any new ballgames. If I were a UK central banker with access to the LBMA, I might have a private concern buy gold for me, and stash it somewhere -- so that it is not in the books -- until the right moment comes.

I've read most of ANOTHER's posts, as well as many of yours. What so enchants me, and maybe others, about ANOTHER's posts is that he presents a fantastic -- derived of *fantasy* -- view of gold. I enjoy thinking that what ANOTHER says might be true, just as I enjoyed daydreaming as a kid. It was escapist then; and, not discounting ANOTHER's interpretation of past and current events, his delightful conclusions stimulate escapism now, IMHO.

Goldbugs have been through -- are going through -- malaise, especially agitated by the success enjoyed by the Dow bulls. The sky is falling, we shout in our termite voices. It's all been heard before; Dow bulls know this time it's different. We harbor our hopes of vindication in ANOTHER scenarios. You'll see then! A one-day two-percent rise and we holler It's here. The bull rages forward without acknowledging our fundamentals.

As the violinist in *Titanic* said to the other musicians as the ship sank, Gentlemen, it's been a privilege playing with you. Then he went on playing, alone. And the others rejoined him. And the ship went down. But the music was beautiful.

ANOTHER's interest last night in your/our/Allen's view of the Euro struck me as vested and sinister; it recast my view of his reasons for all he's said from cameraderie to sales. Impressionable? Yes, I am. Gullible? More than I'd admit to myself. But if you're old fashioned and still believe you ought to leave the dance with the date you came with, then the dollar, weak and pimply and flighty as it is, still stands to enable all that we hold dear in this financially slutty nation. *Our* slut, America.

Ma'am, it's been a privilege playing with you. . . .

Thanks for reading. I'll go back to lurking now.

Respectfully,

Dean Jones

Eldorado ( @the scene ) ID#213265:

Interesting. I think I'm detecting some initial signs of a breakdown in the dollar and

signs of an upward breakout in the yen. Both currently of the very short term variety,

until/unless further moves prove otherwise.

-------------------------------------------------

99 ticks?! That equates to a LARGE breakout to me ( $1,200 per ) .....

¡ÖhM¥! I agree this will be short term so I am 'capping' my long and taking profit ( uhhuh ) and putting in another short right now. I love a two-day nicely profitable trade. Thanks Donald!!!!!! yu da man! Although this was an EASY one. Patterns and well placed commentary.....as I said it ain't about funnymentals anymore.......

Yahoo! Go ¥en!! ( Mark? ) ...... ( hello ) .......it's your turn.

Damn I love a good breakout in the morn.......!! ( $ )

away...to count the duckets ( $ )

Éßhotdiggitydog.

What I meant about 'Big Bang' being a non-event is that the Japanese markets will not crash due to Japanese investors pulling out of Japanese markets, although there may be some rearrangements. What I did not think of is that the Japanese love platinum jewelry, and may be enticed to buy more gold with their assets ( other commodities, too -- right D.A.? ) . Some Japanese got burned years ago with gold buying programs set up by Japanese banks, but I think that will be ignored. The average Japanese is much more asset conscious than the average Westerner -- I would do the same if I saw 1/3 of the world's economy go belly up right next door. Old Gold has repeatedly stated that a recovering or stable SEAsia would be good for precious metals ( I agree - commodities included ) .

I do not think Japan will trigger a world crisis, given that their balance of trade will probably be comparable to mainland China. I would guess that the US trade balance will be staggeringly negative this year, given the Japan and China situation. Just imagine what our balance of trade will be like if China devalues 25%.

SDRer, All: Windows 95. First - made tape backup of entire hard disk. Then bought Peter Norton's book on programming windows 95 -- excellent technical detail -- better that any other Win 95 book - because most are written by software people. PN is equally conversant in HW and SW, and he writes very well. PN says Win 95 is more backward compatibile than NT and WFW -- even for DOS programs. You will need PN's book to handle the inevitable screwup where the Install 'Wizard' acts very unwizardlike. Upgraded last night with a Quarterdeck partitioning program thinking that was the safest way, and crashed my computer anyway. Nearly destroyed my hard disks -- they apparently could not be low level formatted. Finally mostly up and running about 2AM.

Here is what I suggest: Install the Windows 95 ungrade, but set it up on a separate partition from the original software ( WFW or ? ) . PN says somewhere that you will automatically have access to old and new systems anyway. I did it the hard way and used OEM W95. Fortunately I had a tape backup for everything - still alot of work ahead manually retrofitting programs I want. Only problem was a hardwired modem that hung up a PNP modem. Will probably have to remove the hardwired modem until the PNP modem is properly installed. Then hard wire it to a different port, address, interrupt. By the way, make sure you have all the W95 drivers for your hardware before you proceed -- or you will not be pleased.

http://www.netmatters.co.uk/users/murabitun/The_coins.html

But -- the Japanese ( who unfortunately do not post on Kitco ) do things collectively. I would guess that most of their assets will move into Japanese or SEAsian markets -- because that is what they are being asked to do.

I still wonder whether we are actually interpreting the Japanese news correctly -- perhaps the flurry of bankruptcies in Japan reflects the bottom for Japan. The Japanese never do anything unless it is signed, sealed and delivered -- rather than the more impulsive Western approach. We must never forget how much money the average Japanese has saved, relative to the average westerner -- despite the real estate and market bubbles. And -- the Japanese yen does not need to be weak for their profits to be high. All they need to do is own factories in other ( much cheaper ) SEAsian countries -- hopefully functional ones. However, I do admit there is no evidence that the Japanese are rolling in cash to bail out other SEAsian countries.

So my vote is for the 'big bang' to be a non-event in Japan.

I think the real threat to world stability from that part of the world will come from North Korea, India or China.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpwh1c.htm

Loaded windows 95 -- up and running - mostly.

My understanding ( limited too ) is Canada is further ahead than any other

country at this time.Don't know where I read it.US second and the rest

sound right.Euro folks say they have things under control ..uh huh.

US is trying to steal all of our programmers.Offering golf in January

and trips to Dizzy Land.Gotta like it.

Newport Beach…… Lad!

Land-o-augmented breasts in neon tube tops. Lan-o-billion dollar derivative trades with taxpayer $, land-o-phonies and petty pretentious preenings. Land-o-Monex. Land-o-Me....................

http://www.ballard.com

RE:GOLD.....Stay tuned for a link or post from OLD GOLD in the next few

days on the Frank Veneroso teleconference today.Very interesting stuff.

Short term......a little weakness maybe...long term....look up to see

whats coming down.

As for silver, I am in the long camp. However, I have waited until it

seemed highly probable that the lows are behind us, to increase my

position. I will buy more on the next dip back to the 6.15 range.

D.A.-

Hey fella', give the fingers a well deserved rest. Your recent posts have exceed their customary excellence.

Somebody posted that we are now at odds on our positions. I think it is less a case of different views than different time frames. I admit to sometimes being the whore of the day, and will unabashedly sell any of my beloved metals into the dirt for some decent profits in a market that will go down with or without me. I still fear nothing lower than 280 gold. If that support is broken it will not be for long and the recovery, albeit modest, will follow hard on the heels by. On all this I think we agree.

I recall you explaining that your trades are entirely computer generated, please correct me if I am wrong. The market showed a buy for gold this week............ but it still doesn't feel right

Charts and inventories and macro economics and oil and the DOW and dojis and haramis and moving averages and all sorts of other indicators may say do this, but sometimes it comes down to a feeling. Something more than a hunch but less than knowledge. Kind of like watching the live price feed from the floor; some days you get a feel for the cadence and you intuitively know what the market is trying to do - even though this may run contrary to the technicals. After more ups and down than I could ever count, I have intimately traded almost every price range. Something still feels weak about gold. Silver has a lot of room, but it gets a little scary with a dollar downside in a heartbeat. Only in platinum am I convinced that the move will be soon and severe and up.

There is an old axiom is chess. Something like, When in doubt, take a pawn. More times than not, doubts about these markets are best followed by inaction. But I still lament those trades I felt were wise but the charts argued contrary.

Thanks for the posts, and the insights. A client faxed me one of your posts on silver last week, said, you gotta' read this guy, he knows his stuff. When he found I was already familiar with your work, his estimation of me rose by proxy. Thanks for the assist……..

All-

I read some very interesting numbers today about a $400 + million joint effort between Ford and Mercedes Benz to develop fuel cell technology. If this info has already been posted, let me know, otherwise I will dig up a link. I only saw a hard copy, but I believe it came off the Internet. I don't feel like typing the entire notice.

Arden -

Send boxcar of LLs post haste. I must experience this. Send bill to robnoel for he knows not what the limes are for.

Robnoel -

I drink four, maybe five bottles of Coronas per month. Each is swilled with RJ limes. It must be this way.

Pete -

As well you should.