I think the most likely thing that will happen is that during the first year of the EURO launch the EURO will remain weak, but the US dollar will be pushed down relative to other currencies. It will not be until the european economies revive that european interest rates will be raised in earnest. The only wild card in this is gold -- the europeans could boost the EURO with large purchases of gold -- which they probably need to do now if they want cheap gold. My intuitive guess is that they do not have the reserves to do so with their weak economies, unless they sell dollars and buy gold. But I don't know if they have enough dollars to do this.

Interesting questions -- the only clear answer is that the dollar is going to go down, and the AG will not raise rates until it does, as he does not dare boost the dollar any more by raising rates now.

Mike Sheller -

Don't forget the several storage locations brimming with Russian platinum bars all bearing the likeness of the Czar. Rocco has made the rounds and quietly filtered some into the Japanese market to ease market tensions and to pay off his rather substantial Geisha bill. Have heard nothing further about Fireplug and his micturating cohort. Probably rotting in some Gulag.

Regarding the diameter of a square cube: Your thinking is too Euclidean here, Mikey. Think space-time. Think of the universe folded back upon itself, finite but without boundary. Think Einstein here, fella'. I believe there are truths to be found in the diameter of a square cube. If you really have some time on your hands, check out the square root of pi, which is a fanciful journey and end unto itself. Several trillion places to the right of the decimal will be found the answer to all your questions. The trick is to figure out which question fits which answer.

LGB -

Your factor of 20 of the rarity of platinum to gold is correct - for the stuff in the ground. Aboveground: the factor is several million times less platinum exists than gold. Pretty rare stuff. One can gesture in any direction and will be pointing at a whole lot-o-gold. We have only two directions to point for PGMs. SA seems disturbingly quiet. There is a lack of upheaval and bloodshed one would expect when an oppressed people suddenly find themselves holding the reigns of power. PGM production has managed to continue despite labor unrest. We will have to conclude that, barring societal upheaval in SA, PGM production will continue as before.

Russia is therefore the key. As virtually all of SA PGM production is under long term supply contracts, Russia is the wild card. They have to be careful here. They are very close to upsetting the apple cart. If palladium stays at these levels, industry will substitute other metals. The lid on palladium should be just shy of $300 - and then only in a squeeze. Platinum likes trading above $500. Spent a lot of time there in the late Eighties. I think it will go back to its traditional trading range ( post catalytic converter ) of $450 - $600. I'm holding my platinum, my clients are holding theirs, and I know you are holding yours - platinum that is. Platinum is a better buy and hold investment than gold in every scenario that does not include the apocalypse. Thanks for the attaboy, believe it or not, its nice to hear sometimes.

Hep -

Divine? Nay! Perhaps just Cardinal Prophetess.

APH -

Congrats on your 5.60 silver. Sweet day trade.

JTF -

Nay ANOTHER envy. It just seems sometime that many here are so wrapped up in next year and next decade, that they simply miss out on what is making money today. Regarding gold: The Belgium sale was a non-event. Further sales have been expected for quite some time with Belgium among the usual suspects. Will this trigger another round of CB sales? I think not. The pressures to sell are quite different this year than last, and not nearly as severe. I am hold some gold shorts as hedges, but would gladly loose on those trades, because the long silver and platinum will outrun gold five to one in the current environment. Thanks for the kind words.

All -

Tomorrow silver will act much the same as today. Volatility, tempers, and blood pressures will be high. They'll run it down on the open. I'd still like to see 5.50 but 5.60 would be fine. When the funds step in, we could actually close in the black. That was one hell of a bounce today. I still don't know how much was short covering and how much was new longs. I suspect, like DA has reported about in reverse, that they are rolling right out of the shorts directly into longs.

PS Mike Sheller -

I am recalled of your description of my short trades and short fiction. It occurred to me that it is important to understand which is which.

New dollars for old dollars, get um exchanged at your local bank, then watch the rush to buy precious anything. Trouble is, that door will be closed also.

I posted on this the other day, GOSH, thought I was paranoid.

By the way, I think the gold equity bottom was not far from that March Solar eclipse, which also turned out to be within one month or less of an 18.7 year tidal activity maximum. I back scanned tidal activity minima and maxima for 100 years, and discovered that they tend to be long term equity market turning points. That's my 'poor man's astrology' -- only moon-sun-earth -- something simple enough for a physicist.

LGB: I do not understand much of what Mike Sheller says, but I know Astrology does work, and that Mike S understands something I don't!

There are alot of skeptical investors like you out there, but J Paul Getty was not one of them. And -- one of the wealthiest Chinese in Hong Kong also has an astrologer.

I think J Paul Getty said that 'A smart investor can make millions, but an smart investor who uses a ( good ) astrologer makes billions'.

And -- I'm sure J Paul Getty was smart enough to use all of his convential methods as well -- the astrology part allowed him to choose the better of two choices -- so nothing lost. You can bet your bottom dollar that JP Getty checked out his astologer's track record, too!

Several times in the past a two tier system has been used when a currency was inflating, and the problem was not accepted by the 'powers that be'. This most memorable one was the period just before Nixon closed the gold window in 1972 ( ? ) . Another was the one used in South Africa until recently. Now, after yesterday, we suspect that there now a 2 tier gold price as well.

The punch line is this -- why not for oil too? Perhaps ANOTHER was right after all about the concept, but not the premium placed on oil. I must admit I thought ANOTHER's comments about the 'real' secret price for Oil were totally unrealistic, so I discounted his concept.

The story goes like this -- a currency ( the dollar ) is weakening, but the central banks that control the printing of dollars -- the FED,the BIS, and the Europeans ( EURO ) indirectly --- decide that they want to maintain the value of the dollar -- 'at any cost'. But the big players, the buyers and sellers of gold or oil say: 'Now wait a minute -- all of these studies indicate that gold ( oil ) is worth alot more. We realize that the spot price of gold ( oil ) is xxx right now, but since we know it will be going up this or next year, and you do too, we won't trade unless you give us a premium over the price that gold ( oil ) is on the open market.'

The point is that the 'big players' ( big trader?, ANOTHER ) can refuse to play by the CB rules, expecially if all the trading is done in secret at the LBMA where only the big players know what is going on. Presto -- two tier pricing system -- one for the big guys ( LBMA, BIS ) , and one for the little guys ( COMEX ) . But -- finally the system breaks down, just like that gold cartel did in the 70's. Both the price of oil and the price of gold went up soon after.

Interestingly, ANOTHER warned us about the time that gold/oil and the US dollar would go up together -- I'm not sure what he was referring to, except that a 'flight to safety' in the US markets with US market inflation fueled by AG's monetary expansion could parallel a rise in the price of gold. That may be exactly what is happening right now. Of course, a situation like this is unsustainable, once investors realize the craziness of inflating the stock markets with all of the dollars that can't seem to find a home anywhere else. All of those dollars that AG wants to use to reflate the worlds currencies seem to be coming home to roost.

Food for thought -- but disturbing.

What worries me is the implication to the world's 'fiat' currencies, and how this all plays out. My guess is that the price of gold will go up, until it overshoots, and reaches a new equilibrium price. My intuitive guess is that the failure of the LBMA gold trading will have little effect on the worlds's markets, given that the monetary trading volume is still infinitesimal compared to world dollar trading volume. But -- if the day ever comes that the LBMA funnels a major portion of the world's currency trade through gold, that would be a different matter altogether.

So -- I submit that the main effect of a LBMA crisis will be a rising price of gold. This has probably happened in that past -- when the gold selling 'cartel' failed in the 70's?

See you all later!

I will freely admit I do not know what natural events modulate the markets. However, I know that there is external modulation, and I will keep looking.

Amazing!!! All my gold stocks went up today. Hope its a sign of things to come.

Funny you should mention rail cars. At this time 5000 of em are backed up all over Texas. All rail shipments into that area are put on hold. I know because about 10 loads of lumber belong to me.

Cosmic rays of solar or galactic origin are a major mutagenic source for biological organisms through the millenia, with periods of high earth surface activity causing high mutation rates in the organisms that survive. Neutrons are are a major ( uncharged ) component of 'cosmic rays' hence their usefullness as a marker. Earth magnetic field inversions are a ( fortunately rare ) period of high risk to human life because the geomagnetosphere does not deflect the charged cosmic rays. Right now we are at a level of low cosmic ray activity -- one of the reasons we humans are now flourishing on this earth.

Solar activity and the strength of the solar magnetic field also modulate the flux of cosmic rays reaching the earth, and hence our general health. As I recall the effect of generally increased solar activity is beneficial because it tends to strengthen the geomagnetosphere, thus blocking charged cosmic ray activity. Thus, if I recall correctly we may be moving into a period of low cosmic ray activity. However, high energy solar flares are detrimental.

So, the cosmic ray question is a complex one to unravel, but it is highly relevant extraterrestrial modulator of human health and activity.

I agree with your post, except a couple things I would add to the mix:

( 1 ) Transportation.....one shouldn't overlook the importance of this, in view of our recent universal adoption of just-in-time delivery. A one-time scrambling of all the rail cars in the country ( so no one knows what is where, and where it should go ) would have all sorts of unforeseen effects.

( 2 ) Faith in the system.......this is probably the most important thing of all. If the public faith turns to fear, then your 1 in 8 scenario is very optomistic.

The key point is that ANOTHER made a comment about gold going to $310-320/oz about this time, and it appears that the LBMA price was about the same -- thanks to Allen ( USA ) 's digging, not mine. Also there was another ( forgive the choice of words ) Kitco post that a Rothschild had proposed that gold be sold at 'auction'. Now -- why do that if the Comex spot price is the correct price?

So -- by inference, ANOTHER may have told us something. However, as I have posted many times, I do not take any posts in this site seriously without confirmation, and I propose that you do the same with any of mine. All that being said, I do weigh more heavily posts from D.A., RJ, Oldman, and APH.

It is a waste of time to disagree whether ANOTHER said is right or not -- the point is that we were alerted, and something bullish for gold happened. That is all that matters. Think about it -- that is the only time ANOTHER has given a specific time for the event. Usually he is very vague.

I saw your interest in the neutron flux data. If you know where to find this, or long-term geoelectromagnetic field data ( preferably real time ) -- I am interested. I have monthly Sunspot data to 1750, but am looking for comparable ENSO,SOES,geoelectromagnetic,neutron flux, etc. time series data.

Colleen: Thanks for your neutron flux website - did not work when I tried it -- could have been a bad time in the day to try.

You too can have a copyright on your posts merely by exceeding 100 words. Quantity, not quality is the rule.

-----------------------------------------------

Buy 2 Oct Platinum

Sell oct Gold 3/18 to 4/16 93%

-----------------------------------------------

Hmmmmmmm... Congratulations on coming to the *exact* conclusion doing only chart work. WOW! My hat is off to you. Tell me, how did your charts tell you to buy 2 plat and not one or three and sell gold ( scratching his head ) ...

away...

Éß©

Silverbaron -

Sadly, I knew nothing.. Nobody knows what these markets will do, but I did suspect an attempt to slam silver down to at least the 5.50 gap. My posts last night were meant to be cryptic. Funny thing is: I spelled it out quite clearly two days ago and nobody seemed to notice. The following from Wed Mar 18, 1998 00:16:

Look for a SERIOUS spanking in silver tomorrow. The longs see the gap at 5.50 and they will wait for the fill to reload, leaving the funds free to sell our blessed silver into a black hole. I still have lots-o-silver in the mid $6 range, as do many, we will see those levels and higher before this whole thing is played out, but not before a bit more down. I too expect WB to buy more silver in the mid $5 range; he may end up with the 200 million oz he originally intended to buy.

After seeing the response to ANOTHER's posts, I figured that just telling it strait, without extraneous mysterious nonsense, gets little notice. If, however, one writes with cryptic and vague aplomb, all sorts of fellows will speak endlessly about possible meanings, and peer deeply for portends. This was on my mind last eve.

OK

Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want to sell silver right now, before the next big runup.

Any comments about gold? Agree with the Kitco assessment that the announcement of the sale of 300 tonnes of Belgian gold was the end of the gold bear? What remains to be seen is how much gold the europeans will need to back their new currency. Considering how weak Europe is relative to the US right now, it will take a big sales pitch to get people to shift away from the US dollar, IMHO.

different central banks, Verplaetse said, leaving it unclear if the gold had remained with the other central banks or been sold on.

It has not influenced prices on the gold market and neither the liquidity of the monetary market, Verplaetse told a news conference.]

This is of, course, the man who pledged to the Euro goldbug

CB's a year or more ago that they ( Belgium ) were through selling gold. But what does different central banks mean? This does not sound like idiomatic Euro-English. Was the statement released or made in English or translated by a reporter? In some American English idioms different can mean several or variable, but this is not the common meaning which is, well, different. A different CB in this sense could only be the BIS, or *possibly* an international agency bank ( WB, IMF ) .

Another aspect of this reminds me of Veneroso's remarks that some gold dealers have been stung by this Belgian and Dutch clearance sale over the past few years. The idea was that these low country bandits place some gold for sale by dealers while saying that's all there is, and then dump some more while the dealers are carrying the inventory ( bagholders ) . I'm thinking that the dealers are refusing to deal with them, and they had to use a CB trading desk ( BIS, NY FED ) to move the merchandise. This would make a private ( non-govt ) buyer a little more transparent to authorities which is not what they normally like. Of course NM Rothschild or someone like them ( is there anyone? ) could have acted as quiet agent for the buyer or for themselves.

We still do not know who bought the Australian gold, at least I don't. Rumors ranged all the way from Soros to China and Korea CB's. The latter seems unlikely in rerospect. Nevertheless these are two reasonably large deals totalling about $5 billion at market price, rather a paltry sum in these days. If this were a stock deal we wouldn't bat an eyelash. What will Merrill Lynch go for?

I think the main point is that the governments of the world have given further evidence, if any were needed, that they are an impoverished lot and getting more so by the month. By selling gold for US bonds, since that is where the proceeds end up, they are grasping for income. This is a bad or a good sign depending upon whether you would rather have your freindly, familiar local government rule you or large private corporations and individuals. Most western governments have been liquidating and distributing a liquidating dividend to their politically favored shareholders for some time in the form of social transfer payments. This may just be more of that long term project from the 1930's.

We think that the US, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, and the IMF have not been selling their gold, apart from coinage sales, and that they are holding still substantially what they have had since the 1970's disgorgements. We know that China and Russia have been buying some gold but we don't know how much. Middle Eastern government and private gold holdings ( not always separate ) have varied, but suggestions have been made that this is where some or much of the recent gold offered has been going. It is interesting to speculate that the massive pumping of oil recently by OPEC members may in some cases have been for purposes of funding gold purchases. I have no proof of this, only hearsay.

$5 billion is also well within the range of many wealthy individuals and corporations/funds.

Another possibility with the EMU looming on the horizon would be US gold purchases. In earlier times gold was bought at guaranteed price from our mines. Doubtless the Tresasury will want the US dollar to remain the primary reserves unit, a place of honor which has sometimes seemed threatened or compromised by the coming of the EMU unit. On the other hand if the EMU unit is to be backed by dollar bills and bonds, even if only as backing for EMU bond issues, is it really much of a threat?

Less so I would think if the Euro CB's are offloading gold with which to buy US Treasuries. ( Of course they may be buying German treasuries. This would partly explain the amazing bond rallies in Europe. )

The point is, however, that the US with its declining deficits ( budget, current account, not trade ) might wish to make a statement ( quietly ) by adding to gold reseves. $5 billion is really nothing of substance for US finance except as a political/economic statement.

These are some overnight thoughts, based not on insider ( or trade ) information.

aurator: Thanks for your input on the gold price situation. It sure does look like there is the 'public' price of gold on Comex for us ordinary people, and a 'black market' price of gold on the LBMA.

Someone once told us that the LBMA uses the Comex 'spot' price, and that is why the LBMA does not post spot prices. I think we now know the real answer, don't we?

Allen -- I repeat aurator's comments -- great pickup yesterday, and as far as I am concerned, whatever ANOTHER told us seems to have come true.I do with whoever ANOTHER is would be more explicit, though. We don't need to know who is buying and selling, just that there will be a purchase or ? of some kind.

I'm not a trader, ( so it really doesn't matter to me what happens short term )

but I appreciate the insights that you, D.A. and others have who are inside the market.

Just curious - how didyaknow it was going down today?

http://www.gold.org

( a great site for news and research, if you haven't tried it - use the full menu option to find Research Studies )

Toward an Islamic Gold Standard

Final Call - February monthly edition

By forming an International Islamic Central Bank and issuing its own gold-backed currency notes, the Islamic world could establish the most stable money system on earth. But, would it be credible? Yes. The enormous mass of the Muslim nations - 10,450,000 square miles, a one billion member population, the combined Gross National Product of all of the Muslim nations and blessing of having much of the world’s oil supply running beneath its feet - would give the Islamic gold-backed currency all the credibility it would need.

Most people outside of political and economic circles do not realize that since 1945 it has only been possible to purchase oil with U.S. dollars. This creates a guaranteed demand for dollars that no other currency in the world can claim. The fact that oil is denominated in dollars ( meaning you have to use dollars to purchase oil ) means that people will always need dollars if they want oil. This is one factor that makes the dollar so unique.

The oil-producing nations ask for dollars because the dollar is the strongest currency in the world, but nothing is stopping the oil-producing nations from asking for another currency in exchange for oil. If the oil-producing nations with significant Muslim populations were to ask for their oil payments in the form of an Islamic currency, all the strength and purchasing power that the dollar gains from being the oil-producers’ currency of choice would now switch to an Islamic gold-backed currency.

You can get the free COMEX data ( with about an 8 hr time delay ) at

http://www.futuresource.com

( free Internet membership for delayed quotes )

click on Internet services

click on News

click on FWN Metals

COMEX stocks for gold and silver are listed separately; part 2 for silver has the totals.

away...to visit a Fräulein

Éß©

G'day salty ( i meant in prior post ) .

away

Éß™©

On your mark...

get set...

hmmmmm ( ... ) ...

Yes, I think the specific trade discussions were from Avid. I don't

surf over there daily, so I'm sure I've missed alot. What I have is

great.

Otherwise, I would think that to claim ownership of something that you don't own is innocuous unless you act on that claim. I can claim ownership of all the gold in fort knox. Nobody would really care until I show up at the front gate politley asking the guards to load it in my pickup truck.

To Aragorn III: Interesting post, but don't worry about the bullion dealers. Their profits can be made in gold, currency or any combination as they wish. Their inventories can be hedged or not. So even a dealer who wants all his corporate assets in gold can do so. If they sell their entire inventory for paper on any given day it's because they know they can immediately replace the paper for gold at a lower cost. That's the object of the game, to end the day with either more gold or dollars than you start with.

Speaking about bullion dealers .... You'll notice an advertisement soon for the Royal Canadian Mint Mountie Coin which they guarantee to buy back for USD$310 before Jan 1, 2000. Consider this our next effort in trying to generate enough revenues to maintain and improve this site. The ad is going up exclusively on our discussion group for a two week period during which time all profits from the sale will go towards maintaining this page. That's not to say that it's going to disappear if we don't sell enough. Charging for full text mode is still an option, but only as a last resort.

So if you feel you'd like to support our group AND invest in gold with a limited edition $310 guaranteed value 1 oz pure gold bullion coin ( count the adjectives ) here's a great way to do it. In the absence of a bull market the price will be only $325 + shipping.

soon. ( said EB whilst buying with his extremities{:-$ ) )

hey ted...g'day crusty...savage, did you like that buy two sell one? ( pl/gc ) ... ( ohmy ) ( ! ) ... ( $$ ) ....go plat. and silver to boot, this game is hotting up. Damn! I feel good. StudioR, I'm half inclined to sell this ( so called ) oil rally. She wants to go lower..uh huh. And so does gold. Nick@C, man you still kill me. yuk-yuk. Xavier!? Monex-Boy, let us ride this to the moon, EH?

away...

Éß™©