Any news about China? Donald's posts today suggest that China will devalue very, very soon. Bad news, especially for Japan.

Take care -- hope all it well. By the way I'm convinced that the same financial 'flu' that hit SEAsia will eventually come to the US, though it may take several years to do do. The biggest problem is uncontrolled debt -- and the rest of the world has done nothing to fix it.

I think SEAsia will be the first to have a currency firmly backed by gold, and much stricter rules of credit.

Yes, most of the businesses will be kinda ready, however, that does not mean they won’t have a problem.

E.g., even if your bank is OK, your payment may not be processed correctly by some non-compliant entity and you may start receiving non-payment notices generated by dumb, non-compliant computer.

Even if your bank is not compliant, that does not mean that it’ll wipe out your balance to zero.

You most likely will still be logging to Kitco,

For you guys, who plan to convert all your paper money to gold, 7-11 won’t take it when you go to buy your six-pack.

Money will be made and money will be lost. Just like with bulls and bears in market.

I work exclusively on Y2K issue, I can say that I am pretty well known in Y2K area, however, I am not making more money that I was making before, however, I have to work longer hours that before.

For whatever it’s worth, for you people doing business with Fidelity, they finished their Y2K renovations, and are considered to be compliant.

Don't bother to offer solutions like lets convert everything 1900, it just shows missunderstanding of the issue ( though in a bit different and more complex form this time travel approach is used as one of the technical solutions. )

Away, getting ready for tomorrow, helping the big boys on Hill to be Y2K compliant.

And where would these bonds show up? In our national debt, I would guess.

% gain

RYPMX Rydex Prec Metals . 6.3

MNTGX Monterey OCM Gold . 4.0

BGEIX Amer Cent Global Gold. 3.8

USAGX USAA Gold . 3.8

PIGDX Pioneer Gold A . 3.7

GRFRX Van Eck Gold / Res A . 3.5

EVNRX EV Marathon Dev Res . 3.3

ASA ASA Ltd . 3.3

METBX Dean Witter Prec Mtls. 3.2

FKRCX Franklin Gold I . 3.1

Just wait for this week.

Medieval Persia - 1059 to 198 A.D. Ghaznavid Gold Dinars ( very fine to extra fine - last quote I saw was for $89.95 ea )

I like the Justinian I 527 to 565A.D. Byzantine Gold Solidus myself although the Tiberius II Constantine and the Maurice Tiberius and Phocas are wonderful coins as well.

In silver the Alexander the Great 336 to 323B.C. Greek Silver Tetradrachms is a coin to behold! Then there are the Roman Silver Denarius and the Silver Parthian Drachm as well as the Greek Silver Staters and the rare Armenian Silver Double Trams too. I guess we can't forget the Thirty Pieces of Silver ( as ref. in the bible that were paid to Judas for his betrayal ) - the 126B.C to 70 A.D. Shekel of Tyre. I would probably stay away from that one though : )

And for the hard pressed there are always the Widow's Mites...

I don't know how much of our debt has come from direct expansion of the money supply, and how much from increased government spending during recessionary times. Either way, a responsible Congress should have tightened their belt and cut spending so that deficits would have been less. As mosel has pointed out, credit expansion does have its value during hard times, but the debt needs to be paid back during good times.

I guess what I am saying is that I can live with inflation, as long as it is controlled. But -- I cannot live with spiralling debt, which ultimately will lead to catastrophe.

I will admit that even if Congress and the American people are ultimately responsible for our debt fiasco, it is the bankers that have given us so many clever ideas how they can make money while we borrow to buy things we cannot afford.

However, I differ with you in one respect. It is our tax and spend Congress that is the real threat to the future of the average American. You cannot blame AG for rising tax rates, rising National debt -- now 20 trillion with official and unofficial debts, and our dropping standard of living -- down nearly 15% in constant dollars from 1970. The Gini ratio bottomed in 1968, and has been rising ever since, showing the loss of wealth by the average American, and the shift of wealth to the wealthy few.

Just think of how things would be right now if AG was at the beck and call of Congress -- things would be much worse. So -- you can complain that AG answers more to world bankers than he does to Congress -- but strangely enough, that has been very fortunate in most instances, due to the rather poor performance of our Congress.

Now -- in one scenario I would agree with you -- if it turns out that our Fed is adding 1 trillion of new debt this year to bail out the rest of the world's SEAsia-induced debts -- I will be standing next to you, complaining just as loud as you! I am all for helping the world survive this crisis, but I don't think that means we ( the American people ) should be bailing out all the creditors of the world who have made sour investments. These assets can be put to better use.

Donald,All: What should we expect if China devalues? I'm not sure, but I would guess that SEAsia would plummet once again, but probably not as much during the last six months. Ironically, China will be the best SEAsian investment choice after the dust settles! The US markets would twitch short term, but nowhere near as much as Japan. I don't think this would trigger the big one in the US. The US dollar might actually go up due to flight to safety - short term. But if Europe goes later, that is another matter entirely.

Intermediate to long term, Japan could be in even worse shape, with a likely spread to South America and Europe. I think anyone in Gold equities intermediate to long-term will have to be nimble. If Europe deflates explosively, it will very likely pull down the US markets in a big way -- including the gold stocks, even if they have little left to fall. And, if the gold stocks explode like the way they did in 1987, all the more reason to be nimble a few months from now when you have a profit.

Beware the gold bug Tsunami -- the ride may be exhilarating, the rise stupendous, but the crash at the beach sobering.

aurator, Wanniski's Polaris, good stuff all V parts

and appendix.

___________________________________________________________recommend the Gold Polaris series

http://www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/gp1.htm

Great URL, plenty of relevant info. Inquire for more info concerning Inca civilization : http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/amser/chrono6.html , seems as if this is the Central Planners utopia - I question it. Any related links/text references/etc.?

copyright 1994 ISBN 0-9643552-0-5. The quote is located in the Introduction, page 11

under the heading GOLDEN FINANCIAL REALITY.

Although I have just started to read it, it seems that the subjects that he writes about are a collection of his thoughts and beliefs. R.E. has many quotes in the book, from Fed Govs to Austrian economists. As you may be aware of, he publishes The Reaper newsletter. I'll try to contact his office and see if I can get his e-mail address and will then follow up on any more details that come to light.

I think I will keep my day job -- my job is complicated, but I do not envy AG. My hat goes off to him if he can keep 'the lid on'. But please -- lets not increase the national debt another trillion in the process.

Right now , I suspect all that is happening is that we are expanding the money supply to cover the treasuries that Japan is selling. Hence we are not adding to the stock market bubble, just to our national debt. I think it is reasonable to conclude that if our markets continue to rally, it will be because of the 'baby boomers' and not AG. Personally, I think AG considers the markets rather fragile right now with the SEAsia crisis, and Europe also on shakey grounds --so no interest rate increases. He may also be anticipating more dollar sales -- so that interest rate increases would be overkill.

Hope others have more insight into your questions.

I am not a trader, however, and most of us are not. The reason I am hoping you can give us more details about your concerns is simply that I am guessing that your comments regarding a paper disaster are premature. Please do not construe that as my not believing you -- I value your posts -- which seem sincere. But I also know that no one can accurately predict the future -- the precise when. As you may recall, ANOTHER has posted messages of disaster for more than 6 months.

So I repeat my plea -- as a gold investor -- not a trader! Please let us know what you know regarding what is coming -- are there any specifics you can give us -- web sites. Any central banks that have loaned gold, but cannot get it back. Information about when gold supplies at the LBMA, etc will dry up. I am talking about months to years.

You see, the disaster you speak of might actually wait till 2010-2015. That is also the approximate time for another 1980's type inflationary crisis in the USA, if you believe the long term cycles.

Respectfully, JTF

Our government/Fed reserve have acted in unison to prevent major recessions by stimulating the economy every time it has weakened ( inflating the money supply, or adding to the federal debt ) . The problem is that we have not eliminated the 'economic cycle'. We have just postponed it. Eventually all of the debt we have accumulated will come due, with a vengeance in a deflationary collapse, and then we will have the grandaddy of a depression. The circumvention of Gramm-Ruddman is an example of this.

Of course, the final reckoning may not be y2k, it may not be 2005. We may have a bumpy ride all the way to 2010-2015 when the baby boomers retire. I sincerely hope not -- because the longer we wait before we visit reality, the harder it will be.

I realize that the current message is that Germany and France will keep their gold in their respective countries. But if they do, who will believe that the EURO can compete with the US dollar? My guess is that there will be demand for gold to set up the EURO. Perhaps it is time for the 'powers that be' to sell dollars, and buy gold. True gold backing will come later, after the SEAsians force the issue.

Just a thought!

Here's another interesting thought! Why is our Federal debt going up, despite the fact that our budget is balanced? And -- why are we so adamant about Japan inflating their currency? My guess is that our debt is going up because we are buying the dollars that Japan is selling! What will happen when the Europeans do the same?

We need to watch our national debt.

We may not be too far away from an expected emergency situation. Even before the debt-laden 20th century reaches its end, you will all experience a gold market where people are no longer concerned about supply and demand, but on the contrary, will want to own gold at any price… Gold today is going over from weak hands into strong ones, mainly into the hands of the richest and the most liquid investors in the world, the central banks of the Far East. This is not any secret, but for the moment, the enormous meaning of it is being completely ignored. Sooner or later we will experience fireworks in the gold market, which hardly anyone would dare believe today… Forget the reports about climbing gold production. It is nothing compared to climbing paper money production.

I am uncertain as to when F. Lipps made this statement, but it does have a certain familiarity to it.

sas - thanks for the response, but I know what I read. Armstrong's mistake may have been a typo, but the point he was trying to make was that the expense of carrying silver, would seriously effect Mr. Buffett's results. That implies Mr. Buffett didn't factor that in before hand, which is preposterous.

As far as PEI/Armstrong's position, there is no way for me to know ( or care ) , so I accept you at your word ( if in fact, you would be able to know his entire position ) .

But his writing about silver would lead one to think he was short, because what other motive could he have?

His response to my assertion of silver having the largest short position of any commodity in history was classic Armstrong double-talk. Your question was much more to the point, that is, who holds the respective positions and why. A record long position would indicate to me that a lot of people thought it was cheap and that it would go up in price. That's the reason why anybody invests in anything from the long

As far as PEI/Armstrong's position, there is no way for me to know ( or care ) , so I accept you at your word ( if in fact, you would be able to know his entire position ) .

But his writing about silver would lead one to think he was short, because what other motive could he have?

His response to my assertion of silver having the largest short position of any commodity in history was classic Armstrong double-talk. Your question was much more to the point, that is, who holds the respective positions and why. A record long position would indicate to me that a lot of people thought it was cheap and that it would go up in price. That's the reason why anybody invests in anything from the long si