I think we will find out in the next few weeks just how strong our gold bounce upward from approx $280 really is. Personally, I think we have bottomed and are going up the other side -- but my advice is worth just what it cost you!

And yes, Thursday or Friday ( ugh Friday ) will start the breakout. Do not 'hope' this market....but trade it.

Stox will be just one nail in it's coffin. Silver or Plat won't 'carry' it.

btw, who was it that bought Oracle at 18 ( early Jan ) Well.......now it STILL looks good at 26...ohmy! Buy and hold....buy and hold..... ( uh huh ) .

away...to Nagano

Éßgoldmedalbound

Any comments on the Japanese 'big bang' April 1 ( do I have the right date? ) . It is my impression that on that date the average Japanese is free to invest his/her money outside the country. Is that right? If so, knowing the Japanese, that would not change things very much, although it might finish off any remaining teetering banks. I think someone said that only 10 Japanese banks would survive. If so, I would not want to be in the Japanese market at that time. I don't think that will be bullish -- not yet anyway. And what about all of those other Japanese corporations -- or are only the banks on the brink?

My guess is that the IMF is more concerned about debt repayment than they are about civil unrest in Indonesia. Selfish considerations aside, Indonesia will be unable to pay anyone if it has been reduced to anarchy. This reminds me of the old English 'debtors prison' where debtors were jailed if they could not pay -- and then of course thay could never pay.

It certainly would be nice to have a 'fly on the wall' at that meeting, just to determine how much debt is unpaid -- the non-Asian debt must be considerable for an emergency meeting to be called. Didn't someone post not so long ago that Europe is more heavily invested in SEAsia than the US?

Wednesday February 18, 6:39 pm Eastern Time

Gold display highlights irony of rare yellow metal

LONDON, Feb 18 ( Reuters ) - The Bank of England is due on Friday to host an exhibition

showing hundreds of gold bars in the shape of pigs, frogs and even plain old rectangular bricks

intended to depict gold's past and present allure to mankind.

Doughnut bars from Hong Kong, Japanese Yin Yang bars, Thai bas-relief bars and Indian ten

tola bars will be among the 500 or so lumps of the precious metal on display during the

three-month exhibition at Britain's central bank.

``There is an incredible variety of gold bars, the variety is staggering,'' John Keyworth, curator of

the Bank of England museum, told Reuters ahead of the opening.

``People like gold because it's rare, because it's a beautiful metal. You can bury it in the ground

and if you dig it up 100 years later it's untarnished,'' he said.

Michael Barlerin of the industry-backed World Gold Council said the display was intended to

bring home to the general public the mystique and history of gold.

``Everyone would like to hold some gold. People feel better if they hold some gold,'' said

Barlerin, a self-confessed gold bug and holder himself of bullion coins and gold stocks.

Bank of England Governor Eddie George, newly confirmed for a second, five-year term at the

helm on Wednesday, is due formally to open the exhibition.

His opening remarks at an exhibition to promote gold should be interesting.

Last November, George told a European Parliament committee that he doubted gold would

figure high on the list of reserve instruments chosen by the planned European Central Bank.

``I would be surprised if that decision involved holding large quantities of gold because whereas

gold used to be seen as the most internationally usable and, in that sense, liquid asset in the

central bank's portfolio it is now seen as actually at the bottom of the pile and the least liquid of

the assets,'' he told Euro-MPs.

And that is the problem for gold, which only last month hit 18-1/2-year lows on the back of sales

by central banks and by gold miners themselves, which did for 1997's record demand.

With gold last bid at $297.50/$298.00 an ounce after the close of European trade on

Wednesday, the question is how much the more than one-million-dollars-worth of bars on

display will be worth once the exhibition ends next May.

Not that it matters, but i plan on making money either way, I buy physical!

I also said that if silver went much above 8.00 that there would be a huge influx of private silver unloaded. If the technicals on silver are as strong as they appear, an adjustment from 6.00-6.20 should be the lowest we see before a correction back to the 7.00-7.20 area. Judge the gold market and the silver market by one simple question--At what point do I become ( or not become ) a steady buyer of physical

I am not a professional trader by any stretch of the word. This should be taken as strictly one man's opinion. Time will tell.

By the way -- I try very hard to say only what is true -- if I say something misleading or untrue -- I would like to know.

What makes Kitco really special is that we try to get to the truth of all matters.

http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2552969718-c1d

but then....you've already heard all this ( FIRST ) on the pages of kitco... ( hoorah ) .

They used Donalds D word in there for color.....or whatever..... ( hmmm ) ...

away....to call the team

ÉßplungeprotectionANDgoldsuppresion

gone are the dark clouds that had me blind...

[Gold is going to finish poorly this week. ( duh ) . The charts always tell me..... ( eventually ) .......

Testing support.....perhaps breaking].

...it's gonna be a butt, butt, butt ugly day. ( ouch ) ! ( . )

away...to the broker to check my positions

Éß

The EURO is unconsciously ( I think ) moving in that direction, by demanding that gold support the EURO. That is nearly heresy for a Keynesian currency. The most likely scenario is that the EURO launch will not be without formal gold backing, and that it will falter. The dollar will continue to do well for a while, unless we have inflated ourselves to oblivion, or we have some sort of financial debacle.

The first gold-backed currency will emerge Pheonix-like out of SEAsia, because the Asians have a traditional respect for gold, and the memory of the current currency debacle is very recent ( right now ) . I would guess that this new Asian gold-baked currency might surface in two years or less.

away...to watch some grain fallage...... ( what do you think of the loonie now? ) ..EH?

Éßwaterbûg

There are also plenty of Iraqis who would like to see SH removed, so it would be to our benefit to find them.

This discussion would be more civil if you would restrict you adjectives. Imagine that your mother is listening.

Regards,

By the way you should review who works for whom. The US Federal Reserve is an independently chartered organization, separate from any part of the US government. I sometimes wonder if we work for the FED and not the other way around. I am exaggerating about us working for the FED of course, but just think if we had the Keynsian approach to unlimited credit right now, and the FED worked for Congress. I shudder to think what mess we would be in right now. Gold would probably be $1000/oz, and I would expect Fort Knox would be empty.

As you probably know, a number of countries are moving toward an ( essentially ) independent Federal Reserve bank like ours.

The FED may not always be doing what is in the best interest of the

American people, but they do a far better job of handling our credit than the US Congress. That would be like giving the chickens to the fox.

At no time did I say we should fight this war, especially for Clinton. Your brain is up and locked. I was discussing what we could do if a carrier were sunk, so I don't think SH is stupid enough to try.

By the way, if you will read your real history and not the NY Times, the Vietnam War ended after the bombing of North Vietnam in December 72 and January 73 when we did what we should have done years before. They sued for peace when they ran out of missiles and realized that we could do whatever we wanted. They signed a peace treaty and we quit bombing and most of us came home. By the way, there were fewer civilian casualties during this time of precision bombing from 30000 feet than bombs dropped. Only military targets were hit. TWO YEARS LATER, in 1975, the NVN army trashed the agreement and invaded SVN directly with a frontal attack ( similar to a German Blitzkreig ) over the DMZ with tanks and a large invading force after the US Congress refused to send any more aid to the SVN government. The war was militarily won in 1973, and given away by Senator Frank Church and his buddies in 1975. This version is not well known due to misconceptions maintained by idiots. Apparently one was your history professor.

Try and be rational if you want a serious discussion.

As I remember, gold went up after the fall of Saigon, because it was viewed as a loss by the US, which it was. The same will happen if we suffer a loss in this engagement.

I guess the next question is just how much damage one of these could do to one of our carriers, or a large cruiser. I bet it would have much more of a kick than an Exocet.

If soldiers can take out tanks with portable missles, it wont be long before our navy is at risk for such attacks. Perhaps we need Patriot missle batteries on our cruisers -- hope we already have them, and that they can take out a Yakhont launched at 25 miles.

Before I hit the links, I would like to add my 2cents to this debt debate. In D.A.'s example of the plow, the debt was used to create a productive asset - a plow. My fear is that most of today's debt is not being used to create productive assets or the correct assets. I've never believed the government can allocate better then the market, so the 5+ trillion in government debt is in question. Then we stop at the credit card debt, does anyone know anyone who uses a credit card to finance something productive? I don't. Let's stop at home mortages next, I'll wager almost every house in the country has been refinanced and the money wasn't spent on improving the house. I'm sure there are other examples, but I'm late. Be back later.

Could someone direct me to the information on subscribing to Kitco. Where/how/when to pay.

You should read about the Univ of Warwick Economic Study in 1991 where the entire economic symposium was based on going back on the gold standard. I have the book with all the associated articles at home -- will give you the reference if you wish.

Credit was not a topic discussed in this Warwick Economic Symposium, but I'm sure that one can go on a gold standard ( more like a gold 'band' ) and still have credit. But -- 'unlimited credit' -- that should not be allowed. Donald has pointed out that one might place M1 on the gold standard, and still have M2 and M3 as we have now -- hopefully with internationally standardized rules.

Having more than my share of combat air time over North Vietnam, I think I understand the concept of war and its misery.

I also appreciate your anti-Clinton rhetoric, but the sinking of a carrier ( lets assume that it can be done, which I don't ) would be similar to the sinking of the 'Maine' or 'Pearl Harbor' to most Americans. It would be a call for serious blood. Please refrain form getting too personal here, because I don't think that way, but the American public would.

By the way, B-52's and B-1 could fly from Diego Garcia until we run out of bombs of gas, which might be several years. Only one runway in the entire country of Iraq would be left smooth ( so UN peacekeepers could land to accept SH's head on a platter and an unconditional surrender ) . Any aircraft flown to Iran would be bought from them and destroyed ( if the price is high enough, Iran would sell Iraqi aircraft in a second ) .

After the second carrier, and eventually third carrier task force, eliminated every palace and military complex in the country, we would land a force on the beach with food for those who cared to surrender. We would then drive inland with humongous amounts of food and medicine for our 'friends'.

We might even supply the Kurds and give them the northern 1/3 of the country. All we would want is the body of SH.

No nukes would be necessary or desired. After a few months, the Iraqis would be glad we won.

If a carrier were sunk, I think that the dollar would crash for several hours to days and gold would spike, possible to $350 or more ( only 17% ) . Over a few days, gold would probably return to normal as the dollar recovered.

It makes you wonder if the IMF knows what they are doing, doesn't it? Perhaps they are bureaucratically muscle-bound from being in existence too long without internal changes. Or, perhaps politicians have wrested control from whatever competent bankers they have in their employ. Hasn't the IMF been around since the 20's or earlier?

I think the matter in the ME is simply about maintaining political control over a major source of oil. Of course the real reason we should be there is to maintain the peace -- and not actually do anything except be there. If a confrontation between Iran/Irag/Egypt and Israel actually developed, with us in the middle, it could get really difficult. Just like the policeman that tries to stop the battle between husband and wife.

I'm sure the Arabs are not pleased with the message we are sending with our choice of Madeline Albright to represent us.

glenn ( My Two Cents ) ID#376309:

Spot Gold will break $280.00 before it breaks $320.00!

Glenn: I hope your prediction that Gold will see $280 before $320 is correct. I just bought some Dec. 99 280 puts for $600. each and I am hoping to buy more Philarmonic coins. If spot gold declines to $280 the Philharmonic Gold bullion coins will cost around $292.00 each. My downside loss risk for the coins and the put options is less than 6% for a 20 month position. Also, I am holding April 98 290 puts but time is getting short ( 17 trading days ) and the premium smaller.

All: We might get one more chance to buy bullion coins for under $300. each. Set your target price and keep your dealers phone number ready. We should be able to buy Maples and Phillies for $300.00 each if spot is $287. I have bought all my coins for under $300. each and now have maxed out ( mobilized ) all my credit to buy more.

I have read somewhere ( probably here ) that a 'skirmish' will not effect oil prices too much for it has been 'figured in'. I am not sure what this means or how it could be 'figured in'. And why would gold prices rise? I don't see that at all. Any comments? ( sorry if this has been hashed or re-hashed, I have not been able to read all of kitco with power outages and time constraints ) .... ( and sorry to Bart for off-topic Oil comments, but oil and gold ARE tied to each other in many ways, no? )

I have been waiting on this oil thing for a while now.....to go long here without confirmation of any trend is to throw money AWAY. And how much bottom is there? I just don't know. Too many doubts....this is a job for strategic option purchasing ( or selling, vols high, dangerous though ) . I will find a-way to exploit this mess and turn a buck or two.

away...to the planning table....hmmmm...

ÉßlackGold,TexasTea...yum,yum.

Currency Boards and Indonesia: Although I do not get the impression that the IMF is doing all that it could do in getting the SEAsian countries back on their feet, it is only fair to place much of the blame for lack of progress on the Indonesian government. I believe for example that their FED president was fired for trying to close down family-run banks. Apparently he was well respected in banking circles.

I would guess that the IMF is worried that a currency board is set up in Indonesia without a serious effort at internal reform, and all of the IMF moeny goes 'down the drain' in a vain attempt to maintain fixed parity of their currency with a currency board.

D.A. I hope you will have time sometime today to tell us why you are excited about silver. Thanks.

However, there are several points that we have not really addressed. One is that a country can be highly industrialized ( like Japan ) with highly advanced real assets -- state of the art machinery, and still be up to their eyeballs in debt. Just imagine borrowing money off inflated real estate, and equity assets to build factories, only to have the real estate and equity assets plummet in value. This is essentially what happened in Japan ( and S Korea ) , and it could happen here, and much of our industrial capacity is not as modernized as the Japanese. We do have a hidden pearl in all of this as we are the source of the Computer/information revolution. That I think is one of the cornerstones of the strong economy that we have.

So -- modern industrial capacity does not immunize us from deflation or worse. It must be modern industrial capacity with minimal debt.

Point number two: The world economy seems to be in the 'acquisitor' phase when assets are being accumulated by a few owners. If the US for example is a net debtor, I would guess it is because these 'acquisitors' that own US debt have either moved out of the country, or have moved their assets to offshore sites. International corporations do this all the time, and I guess any large corporation in the US has diversified their assets. So, it is possible for the USA to have a negative balance sheet. It is just us mere ordinary mortals that have all of our meagre assets in the US.

Point Number three: What really matters in evaluating indebtedness is the typical debt of the average American ( the 'middle class' ) . The wealth of this 'class' is the backbone of the US economy, or any world economy. Unfortunately, creeping taxation, rising cost of living, and increased legal barriers reducing small business profits have seriously eroded the wealth of this group - passing the wealth to the 'acquisitors'.

So -- when we think of US debt, we should think of how much debt this group owes, not the wealthy few who have accumulated most of the wealth of the United States. Some will say that the only way to solve this problem is to take the wealth away from the wealthy few -- and that is often what eventually happens. But a much better way of doing this is to encourage the work ethic, saving, reduce taxation, and repeal all the nonsense laws that inhibit small businesses.

If we are not able to raise the standard of living of the US 'middle class', we will be asking for trouble. As the Sarkar model of human behavior states, the acquistor phase is followed by the brief revolutionary phase where the people rise up out of frustration from having their standard of living eroded, only to be followed by the Warrior phase.

So -- my conclusion is that the best indicator of how the US is doing is the relative indebtedness of the economic powerhouse of the US -- the 'middle class'. This is very similar to what has happened over thousands of years. If the 'inquisitors' amass all of the wealth, by subterfuge or other means, all they are doing is destroying their own powerbase when they impoverish the people. Any country/government that wishes to survive must address this issue.

A HUGE Domo Arigato Gozaimashita for fellow Kitcovite VRONSKY.

AS ASIA GOES....SO GOES THE WEST

GOLD ( en,en,en,en,en, ) EAGLE now has a whole new section dedicated to ASIA. I've just spent the last 2 hours there, and I'm grateful for all the new links!!! As this new ASIAN CORNER says:

Undoubtedly, the deterioration of Asia's economic and financial sectors will us affect us ALL. Therefore, the Asian Corner will try to cover the most important economic, financial and monetary sectors to keep us updated on latest developments. As Asia goes... so goes the West.

Gold:

Registered.... 297,112

Elligible......... 144,882

Total............. 441,994 +8311

Silver:

Registered.... 31,681,094

Elligible......... 60,258,280

Total............. 91,939,374 - 806,532 !

SPEED: Apparently there was a time delay on thislast night.

Silver: