My only point was that it is more likely that April Glaspie was given incompetent advice that she was dumb enough to follow. If she was doing some clever 'undercover' work misleading Saddam, why don't we hear anything about her anymore? My guess is that she has been sent to the equivalent of the South Pole for her brilliant statement.

With regard to the OTC derivatives and the Indonesian currency basket -- I still don't know how one connects with the other after thinking about your post. I do get the impression that the IMF has a complex agenda that is not necessarily in the world's or their own best interest.

Surely they must understand that their score is nearly 0 for 6 ( or so ) in SEAsia. If Suharto et al and South Korea have defaulted on some derivatives trades within their borders, I would think the IMF would want these countries to get back on their feet relatively quickly.

The IMF is right about one thing -- a currency board alone will not solve the problems of SEAsia, without alot of internal changes -- but I don't see the IMF lifting a finger to help.

Who writes these tax laws, and more to the point, does anyone understand the explanation given in these fine publications that are ostensibly put out to help us?

I think it's much easier to buy gold coins.....

The last half of 1997 witnessed one of the most devastating

stock market meltdowns and coincident currency chaos since

World War II. It's epicenter was and remains Southeast Asia.

And since all world economies have become inextricably

connected, and therefore dependent, the woes of Asia are

relentlessly exporting their destruction to other parts of the

globe.

Due to the continuing turmoil in the Asia in recent months,

financial media is plastered with stories of how the economic

plight of the Far-East may well reach Occidental shores in the

not too distant future. To keep abreast of what is occurring in

the Orient, and how it may affect the western banking,

financial and monetary systems, golden-eagle has created

an entirely new section devoted entirely to the Far-East. It is

called the Asian Corner.

The current crisis in Asia and its contagion effect - now known

as The Domino Effect - threatens to infect Western

economies. Therefore, the Western world has brought Asia

into sharp focus. Businessmen from Boston to Buenos Aires to

Bern to Berlin to Bahrain to Baghdad must necessarily concern

themselves of what is occurring in Asia - and what impact

currency devaluations and massive loan defaults will have on

Western economies from Wall Street down to Main Street.

Undoubtedly, the deterioration of Asia's economic and

financial sectors will us affect us ALL. Therefore, the Asian

Corner will try to cover the most important economic,

financial and monetary sectors to keep us updated on latest

developments. As Asia goes... so goes the West

ASIAN CORNER seen at following URL ( just delete the

letters “en” in the word “Golden”

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner.html

I really appreciated your comments about 'overhang' and OTC derivatives trading. I never understood how OTC derivatives trades where handled when they go sour, as there is no standardized market. I gather the claims go to court in the country where the derivative trade is set up -- so it is not standardized. Could you explain how Indonesia setting up a currency board is going to threaten the derivatives market? I would think that future trades, not previous ones would be affected.

Are you saying that the use of a currency board would encourage SEAsian countries to move away from the US dollar to other currencies, so that the derivatives market would dry up ( partially, at least ) ? I would think that the IMF would like this, as the derivatives trading is growing exponentially wordl-wide, and either this must be stopped voluntarily, or we will implode in a world-wide derivatives disaster someday when it all unwinds. Better to control the spigot up front, I would think.

On the other hand, perhaps the IMF is more concerned about keeping the status quo in OTC derivatives using the dollar. If so, that is a very disturbing thought. Comments?

By the way, I doubt that April Glaspie was actually told to tell Saddam that invading Kuwait was ok so that the US could move into the Middle East. I think another excuse could have been found if the US was truly alarmed -- look at what is happening now. Personally, I think Saddam will back down, and let us inspect the 'palaces'. That is his style to push everything to its limit. Notice that this time he has not really rattled a single saber?

commpany. With 37 million shares in the float, and a production of

2.7 million oz of silver ( +1000 oz au ) it is the purest of silver

plays. Each 1$ increase in silver generates a $0.07 increase in

cash flow. Cash flow X 6 should generate a stock valuation of

$0.42 per share. That translates to a 27% return on investment

based on a $1.55 stock price. Price earning multiple should be

about 13X, based on an estimate of $0.11 net.

As near as I can figure, this is

the highest leverage of any of the silver stocks that have actual

production. Silver Standard and Pan American have big reserves but

they are either in politically 'difficult' regions or high cost, and

neither one of these companies is in a position to place ore

reserves into production in a hurry. Incidentally, TVX is a silver

play with a 8% return on investment per dollar rise in silver at

$4.10 per share. TVX reserves are 150 million oz and their prodn.

will be 7.8 million oz this year, rising to a possible 15 million

ounces in 1999. Interesting timing!

Date: Mon Feb 16 1998 20:19

mozel ( @ Silverbaron ) ID#153102:

Mr. Mozel,

Thru these “thoughts” I have made effort for many months, in haste, to make clear. My words are plain, but hard, and others have presented this truth in a western way. But, you sir, have made the best of it!

“make your path through the darkness, despair not, for one with direction and purpose, will read the map and complete the journey”

I make clear for you to lead!

thank you

tolerant1 - 28 MM FSR ( previously ) restricted shares were available for trading today in Vancouver....do you know if the price dropped? I'm looking for a dip to buy this one.

No guts, no glory!
No gold, no freedom!

In either case ( if it occurs ) it will be very interesting to find out whether our strategy of holding gold, silver, platinum metal is of any real and practical use - when the witch hunt begins.

a.w.a.y.

É.ß.

Contact those Miller Beer guys. They have a great campaign right now ( has anyone seen the new comm. w/ that dude in a beaver outfit eating the log cabin and then he goes after the guy with the wooden leg ) ...a riot...... ( belly laughing ) ...yuk ,yuk.

DO IT! Get Real! Get Gold! 1-900-555-1212... ( $9.90Can/minute ) . Operators 'standing' by. We can talk about gold one-on-one or in private. .... ( Hmmmmmm... ) ... Operators 'standing' by.

Go bart!

away

Éß

Date: Mon Feb 16 1998 18:09

STUDIO.R ( @Obsidian.... ) ID#93232:

I believe that the estimate should have read 10,000 Tons=sold position.

Thank you,

My good friend did not place three 0s. My thoughts come thru one computer, but move far thru time and ones in line. I will return.

Carl @18:00 Paper chasing the spot is really an element in the idea of Paper chasing the PHYSICAL POG that has been bothering me since last summer, and is being reinforced by people like yourself and ANOTHER...

The regrettable part of this riddle is ANOTHER gets more honor and respect than the author of the posts and we will never know which one of us is really him.

The derivatives market, and the gold and silver markets, were SUPPOSED to be zero-sum games. Not. I think there are some very nervous people in high places with all of these possibilities.

Midas & Haggis: Please take the time read the rules of engagement ( ) and then let me know if you think the nature of your messages are consistent with the guidelines set out on our netiquette page.

http://www.buycoin.com/perspect/news/1_98/standard.htm

“The Time Is Right For A CHANGE OF EVENTS”!

They traveled a long road to get here. Back in the early 70’s they ran out of gold after printing too many dollar commitments. If they couldn’t use gold anymore, what else could be used? You know and I know that the buck would have been dumped real fast without something behind it! All the talk back then and now, “everybody’s gona hold the greenback because of the USA economy and it’s military might”, yea, right. Didn’t see

any coverage on the TV, showing the behind the door financial rooms. Truth was, everybody was going to move straight to the hard currencies and gold! Dam the effects on the world economy, figure that out later.

But, look here, the oil states said, “we will settle all oil payments in US$” ! Buy the oil in any currency and rate, but when you make the check, dollars please. The US agreed to float gold up to $250 if they went along. At that time, oil agreed because they held a hunk of gold in the NY fed bank valts. Looking at it back then, 250 looked to cover anything! Well , anything happened and the Carter had to slam gold in 78 when it crossed 250! Guess the US thought oil would just stop buying gold with excess cash, per the “agreement back in 71”. Anyway, the rest is history through the 80’s. Everybody learned to “love the dollar and hate the Russians”!

Everything changed in a hurry during Desert Storm. Remember how gold got hammered, big time! War in the oil fields and gold down? Looked good on the TV news, “America is winning, the dollar is good” Gold? No need! Here’s what really happened.

In a very real way, the US dollar was inflated so much that even oil couldn’t back it! Yes! The US ran through the gold backing in the 70’s then went to a much larger oil backing in the 80’s. But, even oil couldn’t contain the huge expansion of dollar commitments that were created by the early 90’s. Back to the drawing board. This time

the US had to add gold to the oil backing mix, if the dollar was to remain on top!

A little political thought first, then we continue.:

Do you really think the US is the only country that will stand a military in the oil fields? What if they told the US, NO, we want someone else to defend us? You think there are no other takers? The truth is, everyone is lined up to offer defense. The price of “oil backing the defenders currency” is worth almost anything! All the deficit spending you want, goes to the defender! Even Russia, if you can believe it! As my friend would say, “you think long and hard on this”!

Now, back to gold. The deal: you may stand your army for us, in return, “ oil will back the dollar, if the dollar is made strong by gold” “in as much as our people may replace the lost value of oil with gold” “in as much as we will produce oil in amounts to equate a gold/oil/dollar ratio close to that which existed at out previous agreement in the 70’s” And, pray tell, how does the USA make the dollar strong in gold ? The BIS leads the creation of a paper gold market that will lower the world price of gold to the extent that it remains above “production costs”.

Guess what, it worked! Contrary to all expectations of oil shortages, inflation, debt collapse and what have you, It Worked! But, there is one small problem?

The BIS and other various governments that developed this trade ( notice I didn’t use conspiracy as it was good business, as the world gained a lot ) , thought that the paper gold forward market would have allowed the gold industry to expand production some five times over! Don’t ask where they got this, as they are the same people that bring us government finance and such. But, without a major increase in gold supply, the paper

created by this “gold control operation” will either be paid by, 1. new supply. 2. the central banks. 3. rollover existing. 4. cash? 5. or total default! As the Asians started buying up everything last year ( 97 ) , number 5 and 5 started looking like the answer! When the CBs started selling into this black hole of demand, the discussion of #5 started in their rooms also.

What is really interesting is how gold is being viewed and traded in some areas. Some people are using it’s future “reset price, in terms of oil” as a value discount. In other words, they use paper gold to buy things based on the new oil/gold relationship perceived as a given in two years or less! It is assumed that this proportion of paper gold held by oil, will be converted, no matter what? We are talking, many thousands an ounce here!

So where are we now? I’m’ not sure! How much gold paper is out there? If you look at the comex ratio of average daily volume to open interest, it’s sometimes around 8. Funny thing that ratio is close to the gold commitments traded in London. Multiply, say 40 million ozs by the ratio of 8 and we get 320,000,000 ozs. of gold. Now, the money is in

this gold paper, paid up. Just no gold yet, I think? That’s about 10 tons, I’ll be dam! That’s a lot of IOU gold, don’t you think? Add to this, that between the IMF and what CBs could sell, only about 1/3 of it is available at a much higher price, if at all! Then again, I’m not in any position to know this, am I?

Wonder if anybody else knows or thinks this? Sure could mess up a sweet deal for the world economy. Does anybody have a plan, a currency plan, if things change? But, then again, just like in the early 70s, nothing changes. Does it?

were $US 5.1 bn up 4% from previous years. Capitalization of mining

companies was $US 25.5.bn, 14 bn or 54.8% of which was Vale do Rio Doce

( CVROY ) . This company also heads the profits list with $US 415 million,

up 148% from 1996.

I thank you sir!

Respectfully,

The Hermit

My guess is that Clinton's popularity bubble will burst, just like the market might -- suddenly and unexpectedly. And, perhaps at the same time.

So -- doing the right thing, and standing on high moral ground is a thing of the past. We must regain that high moral ground again if we wish to continue to play a leadership role in the mext century. Too bad we do not have a moral/ethical anchor like the fincancial anchor we have with real wealth --- gold. I find it interesting that when we are being pulled by the currents in the financial markets, it parallels our drift in moral/ethical issues as well.

What I have learned the hard way is that if you really want to make money in precious metals, you must be equally at home during bulls and bears. If you are perpetually bullish in any market, you will eventually lose. This will happen even in the general equities markets -- despite the fact that they go up much more than they go down. Have you read Vic Sperandeo's books about trading in the markets? His books are excellent, and clearly spell out when in the economic cycle markets are safer, and when they are not. Right now it is very clear to pros such as Trader Vic or Warren Buffett that the stock market is riding on 'vapor'. Now if you are a short term trader, you can ride the waves, even if the crash is near. But if you are one of us mere mortals, like myself -- an investor not a trader -- the safer thing to do is put most of your cash in treasuries and more secure assets, and wait for precious metals to rally.

If you get frustrated waiting for that precious metals rally, learn to short term trade, like Trader Vic, and learn how to invest in commodities. Also you should read Frank Veneroso's teleconferences posted on this site -- he is undoubtedly the most informed individual you will find on the fundamentals of gold investing. In a nutshell he believes the CB's have stopped selling ( loaning ) gold, and that the equilibrium price of gold is $600/oz. If you do some calculations based on the amplification effect of gold stock investments over gold bullion, and figure on an overshoot to $800/oz over the next few years, a 10x return on a well-managed investment in gold stocks is quite possible.

While you are waiting for gold to rally, you can read up on the history of gold/gold stocks reassure yourself that you did the right thing. You will find out that CB gold sales tend only to be for less than 3 years, and gold rallies tend to follow in a regular pattern. Also, when the Fed has no choice except to expand the money supply ( recessions, etc ) , gold tends to go up. You just need to see the cycles, just as you would need to do in trading commodities. Anyone who thinks markets only go up is at a severe disadvantage. These days, virtually everyone I know thinks that.

As a gold/gold stock investor, you can't just think in months, you must think years.

One last item, which I always enjoy thinging about when I get frustrated watching the equities market go up, defying gravity. Those gold coins have intrinsic value. That 1897 Liberty $ 20 gold piece -- even an average one -- is worth well over $400. The price of gold will always catch up to the value of paper goods -- it is just that we are at the extreme of the paper part of the long cycle. So -- it is no surprise that you should feel poorly about gold -- it is at the bottom. And we are at the top of the equities market -- where the euphoria is at its greatest level. Be patient, and you will make back every penny you did not make, as well as a little more.

And, when the equities markets bottom, you will be among the few who will will be able to buy paper at a fire sale, when the paper/hard assets cycle begins anew. But -- I cannot tell you when that will be, or whether the US equities markets will fall this year or next. Perhaps the US equities markets will continue for years to come -- but if so, we will have some severe contractions on the way to whatever awaits us.

Eventually we will be forced to come to terms with our debt: $15 trillion in federal debt plus entitlements, and another $15 trillion in private/corporate debt. We may not face the full weight of our folly -- but our children and grandchildren certainly will. Good Luck!

BTW - my friend's new Pentinum now is running Win3.1.

...or next..........or next...the charts don't lie......eventually.... ( chartz-schmartz ) ........... ( doh! ) ...go gold.

away...to the chartzzzzzzzzzzzz.... ( while dreaming ) ....

Éßeddybye

oh yeah....that silver consolidation looks promising.....but this is all stuff everyone knows, EH?

Big=decent