I remember months ago learning about a secret defense treaty between Iraq, Iran, Egypt, and Syria. Apparently the pivotal most western country Egypt was coerced by implied terrorist activity. The problem with all of this is that it appears that the senior Israeli intelligence officer who reported this has recanted, and said that he manufactured most of the info about this, without proof. Unfortunately, justified or unjustified fears of war lead to defense proliferations, which tend to lead to war anyway.

I hope that cooler heads prevail, and we just have a war of nerves. Currently, a US attack on Iraq might be percieved as 'unprovoked', and precipitate someting worse. I think our presence has a stabilizing effect if there is a secret Iran, Iraq, Syria, egypt treaty -- just as much to prevent war on the arab side as on the israeli side. But only if we can withold from actually squeezing the trigger. As OldSoldier has said, the biggest benefit from a strong military is keeping the peace, not fighting a war. But that means that our leaders must be very disciplined, and make decisions based on world events, not for the need for distraction from local political crises such as Monicagate.

1 ) The US Federal Reserve can control short-term debt, but not long term debt, so if money supply will need to be contracted, short term rates can be pushed up by the Fed. Free market forces control long-term US rates.

2 ) Most of US debt is now short term -- a big mistake -- because if there is a 'run' on the dollar, or inflation fears return, there will be serious concern about a US debt default several years later. Our creditor countries must know this.

3 ) We saw that certain SEAsian countries have or are planning to convert short-term debt into longer term debt -- as a means of self -- protection. This clearly demonstrates that during times of crisis governments will do the very thing they should have done during better times -- but it is now at the expense of the creditor. What might happen if the US did that with Oil producer and other creditors? I don't like to think about what that would do to the dollar. Of course, they would do this first to the average American before they did that with foreign investors.

I have another question about SEAsia. You say that some sort of gold-related crisis contributed to the SEAsian currency implosion. Do you think that key banks sold off all their gold due to a crisis before the implosion? Another explanation is that the gold was sold when the crisis was in evolution -- so I am not clear on cause and effect without knowing the actual series of events leading up to the SEAsian crisis.

I have one last question. Why have you apparently changed you mind about imminent currency immolation? Is there some good news you have heard?

Always appreciate your posts -- thank you in advance.

Goldhawk ( Another Excuse my brashness ) ID#433286:

“ Just curious”?

Mr. Goldhawk,

Your life and times, it would fill a book I would read with much thought and intent! My book would be thin as compared to this history of gold. Together, we will read this book of gold and live it’s modern life. It is the truth of this life of gold that pulls our minds to gain knowledge, not my life.

Mr. Pete, another time, thank you

I will be gone for a time.

WetGold ( ANOTHER ) ID#243180:

“ How do Muslims in the Middle East and around the world reconcile this in their pursuit of GOLD with the New Paradigm ?

Sir, I do not know.

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 21:01

Preacher ( ANOTHER & Interest rates ) ID#225273:

“Thank you for that answer. Perhaps I'm dense, but I'm still not clear on how driving the gold from the HK traders collapsed the Pacific economies” ?

Sir,

These Pacific economies were “on the edge” for some time, that is why many peoples there were buying gold. As the financial systems approached resolution, “ the OPPORTUNITY was observed” to allow the currencies to plunge, without help! Much gold ( not all ) was driven from the Pacific rim, and the buying has slowed much. Many underestimate the need to keep gold in the low $300US.

“ Also, you are looking for lower short-term interest rates, but skyrocketing long-term rates along with a higher US$”?

Yes,

In an effort to maintain the dollar/oil bond. It is well to know that oil holds not long term US debt as backing for it’s currency. In the end the CBs will let the long bond plunge in price. That is why most of the US debt is not “long”, this change is for that time.

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 20:00

WetGold ( ANOTHER ) ID#243180:

This appears to be a monumental world crisis much worse than the

depression of the early 20th century. Could U expand further ?

Mr. WetGold,

In the past, nations and states have lost all as “ the world changed” and these entities lost the ability to trade, at a profit. It is as history, and happened many times. Today, it is not the same. The “wealth of nations” are held as “thoughts of value” not real value! And even these thoughts are “in debt” as they are owed to other nations. As it has always been, time moves the minds of people to change, and with this, the thoughts of value also change. In this day, as not in the past, the loss of paper value as a concept will destroy the very foundation of wealth that this economic system is built on. This drama has started and is well underway!

There are nations that will try to “resource a new currency” as the old financial system implodes. Oil or gold or both may be used. If it is done at the correct time, much will be gained by all! Fail this Attempt, and gold will never trade on an open exchange again, in our lifetime! We will see this end in our time.

thank you.

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 19:58

Heavy Hitter ( ANOTHER ) ID#403159:

“but maybe you have a hunch?”

Mr. Hitter,

The price of “hunch” is very to high for investment! It is the reason so many paper gold buyers take on appearance of “ to much sun”! I offer this, do not use the solid reasons for owning physical gold, as a purpose to trade it. Your profits from such trade, will, on the last day, in the heat of fire, burn as paper does! Sir, the world is going to change, and the rules of engagement will also change. Gold will be repriced, once! It will be enough for your time of life.

Date: Sat Feb 14 1998 19:34

Preacher ( ANOTHER; A Question ) ID#225273:

“free flow of oil is more important than the Pacific economies. Could you explain your view on that more clearly? “

Mr. Preacher,

A time ago, the Asians were buying great amounts of gold thru South Africa. This alone was enough to drive the price of physical very high. As cheap oil required low gold, this action was, not good. In addition, during this time, a person in Hong Kong was moving many wealths into much “paper gold” in London. The amount “leveraged” was so large, in physical terms, that delivery would not happen, as no CB would sell that much. This gold paper was purchased from $365 down with intent to buy all at production cost ( below $300US ) . Much of this paper was converted, but London had to sell so much new volume that it changed the paper market, forever! That is why the CB had been seen as selling to honor this paper. The BIS stopped the CB sales and drove physical gold from Asia as a last resort! Oil has locked the CB and IMF gold from sales of significance. What metal that trades worldwide, is all there is.

Perhaps, this has answered your first question, also. WW3? Wars are fought over oil, not gold!

thank you.

Thank you for your referral to the article. Physical everything is smart.

The Hermit

I would say, you are thinking well with this thought:

Date: Mon Feb 09 1998 18:20

SDRer__A ID#288156:

“derivatives EXIST because the system is broken”

To this I would add:

“ a broken system EXIST because oil still backs the US$”

It is good, this system, for the world economy is strong from the easy flow of oil. But, the economy is as living persons, and subject to the stress of real life! We do now reach high production of goods and service worldwide. But, in terms of our financial system, the ability to trade these goods, has reached it’s limit! Even as a mountain climber,

humans have limits, as we can move only “so high” and “so fast” at this altitude. Today, the derivatives start to fail because the world trading system is slowing down, even as products are produced faster and cheaper. The economy has reached “the top of the mountain” and noone can see this. As you read this, persons buy companies thru your Dow Jones at values that reflect “the supply of cheap oil” and it’s good effects for

business in general. What they do not see is the undoing of the currency world that “good business” must have to operate. The “oil standard” created and held this currency world intact, thru much abuse. Today, the “derivatives”, that require a long future of “good business”, are being “devalued”! Look far and wide as you are, now , at the top of

this hill! The world will head down this slope because it is not a machine and is subject to “thin air”. History has shown that as persons slip from a high stance, they grasp for items that are known to be secure! They do reach for real things! Derivatives offer not a solid

hold. It is well known that the modern gold market is fat with contracts derived from “intentions to supply”. It is also known that the US$ continues on the “oil standard” because of this paper. No doubt, oil will continue to flow, but what currency will take this supply as we “walk down the mountain”?

In that day, “good money” will become “bad money” and “derivatives” will be paid to the holders of “derivatives”! In that day, a gold mine will also be paid in “derivatives”, for it’s gold will be for the benefit of all.

This is the way for you to see this modern gold market:

“Today, the paper gold market only affects the physical as the price is pushed down! It is the physical market that destroys the paper gold as price rises. In a falling market, paper can be settled in physical gold or cash! In a limit up market, paper can only be settled in more paper or cash!”

It is of this knowledge that wealthy ones and some CBs are taking in physical gold.

Look to LBMA, for currency looking for gold! Compare the Comex average open interest with it’s average daily trading volume. Now use average daily trading volume at LBMA and convert to open interest in London, using comex ratio. Here you will find “real currency” in “paid for” gold derivatives ( not futures ) ! This money is now looking

to convert to physical! It is caught in this paper with no way out! Know that this amount covers not CB gold moved by big trader! That wealth is safe, as it is for the good of all in those countries!

Mr. Bart,

Your fee, it is a good thing. I would be more open and bring the thoughts of others for all to see. “ all persons live for as one world and secrets are for the fools”

http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-3432713

Now pull up the KRY chart--what is the market telling you

To: Daniel Paloyan ( 5240 )

From: Frank Lostracco

Saturday, Feb 14 1998 9:47AM EST

Reply # of 5278

Hello Dan; And To ALL!!

People must understand that Roy lives in Venezuela, and he is on scene to do the best

reporting. He has the ability to find the facts as they exist in that country, his contacts are very

extensive, more so than any of Bloombergs, Reuters, or any other news service that is

there.Many of these services get many of their news from spoon fed statements. If any of you

will take the time and dig through many of their articles, you will find a great inconsistancy in

the facts that they have put forth to the public.

The major corporations have always had the ear of the mainstream press, it is a fact of life, it is

with great courage, that Roy has taken upon himself to get the truth out to people.

Everything that Roy has stated has eventually become facts The time frame is not the same

as we in North America have demanded, but none the less, he has been the most accurate.

The following was posted this AM by Roy Carson, I hope that he does not mind me posting it

here;

Roy Carson;

I received a long letter last night from a worried Crystallex shareholder who wrote:

Should Crystallex indeed be victorious in its litigation with Placer Dome

it will undoubtedly be headline news here in Vancouver, the corporate

headquarters of both companies,

My considered response WAS and IS:

============================

Firstly Crystallex is NOT in litigation with Placer Dome.

It has applied to the Political Administration Chamber of the Supreme Court to remove 11 final

bureaucratic obstructions that were placed there by the Ministry of Energy & Mines.

Three of those obstructions were first seen to be subject to a Statute of Limitations, but were

included

in the final and 4th ruling which can have no other conclusion that a full and final title to LC4&6

to

Inversora Mael.

It is totally wrong to tie PDG to the case, although they had arguments to present as a JV

partner of

the CVG in MINCA. Their arguments have, however, been rejected. Crystallex's legal

ownership of the

LC4&6 concessions through its subsiduary company Inversora MAEL have indeed already

been

confirmed on THREE previous occasions by the Suupreme Court of Justice.

Crystallex's new alliance with the Ministry of Energy & Mines now leads to a removal of any

further

cause for the 4th ruling.

Nevertheless, it remains a formality of issue out of respect for the CSJ and its ultimate

authority.

So please let's get the record straight -- there is NO LITIGATION between KRY and PDG!

What there

IS is an application to the CSJ to remove 11 bureaucratic hurdles to full and clear title ...

nothing more,

nothing less.

PDG spin doctors and corrupt political influences in Venezuela have WISHED to express

reality in

another ( untruthful ) way! The facts, however, speak for themselves and there is NO DOUBT

that

Crystallex's ownership and rights to Las Cristinas 4 & 6 are SOLID and

UNIMPEACHABLE!

best regards

Roy S. Carson

============================================

CURRICULUM VITAE

Roy S. Carson

PERSONAL DETAILS

Nationality : British / Irish ( dual nationality )

Place of Birth : Newry, Co. Down, Northern Ireland

Civil Status : married - wife, Victoria from Peru

British Passport No. : C-587526-D

Irish Passport No. : M 160283

Venezuelan ID No. : 82.143.478

Residente visa 013028

Valid up to and including 17/03/1999

Telephone & telefax : ( 02 ) 283.2758 ( also fax )

Electronic Mail : rsc@TRUE.net

Postal Address : Apartado 60.566

YV - CARACAS 1060

Venezuela - South America

_______________________________________________________________________

PROFESSIONAL DETAILS:

_______________________________________________________________________

1996- Editor and Publisher of VHeadline/VENews - Venezuela's

Electronic News - the first media vehicle on the internet

with news and views in English relating to Venezuela.

Distributed over the internet to approximately 35,000

readers worldwide ( latest estimate: November l 1997 ) and

on WWW at URL http://vheadline.com from December 1, 1996

1995- Internet List-owner: Correx-L - Foreign Correspondents'

Exchange Network - linking 200+ correspondents worldwide

1989- Founding director of the Venezuelan-Irish Association

of which presently co-ordinating director and liaison

with Irish Ambassador, Art D. Agnew in Buenos Aires,

Argentina.

1988- Foreign Correspondent covering Venezuela and parts of

Latin America for :

USA RADIO NETWORK NEWS, USA

INDEPENDENT RADIO NEWS INTERNATIONAL, London, England

INDEPENDENT TELEVISION NEWS, London, England

THIRD WORLD EEC News-features agency

NEWS INTERNATIONAL, London, England

UK PRESS GAZETTE, London, England

MIDDLE EAST PEACE REPORT, Jerusalem, Israel

various print/broadcast network media worldwide

1987 Network News Editor, INDEPENDENT RADIO NEWS, London.

1970 - 1987 Foreign Correspondent covering Scandinavia for most of

the above newspapers and magazines.

1962 - 1970 Editorial assignments in London, Manchester, Dublin and

Belfast with sidebar assignments in SE Asia/Australia.

_____________________________________________________________________

These are not rumors, these are the facts as being reported from a man on the scene, I have

learned in this business to not rely on the main press, and that has served me well. In fact

since I tempered my reading of such press, my success rate in the investing and speculating

game has increased, tremendously. I still glance through issues of the FP and the G&M, but

that is it. I now use information from many sources, and I have found myself, to not be as

clouded in my thoughts and have a better ability to quickly take advantage of a situation.

For any who have doubts, especially with the arrival on the scene of so many professed to be

here to warn us about the dangers of this play, you alone must decide what is fact or fiction,

and you alone must decide whether this situation is advantageous for you. You must be

wondering why we have such new faces, that are here crying wolf, and never have they been

able to provide a definitive argument. You must decide again for yourselves of what agenda

are they motivated

I am a shareholder of KRY, and of course I would like them to succeed, as anyone would

who has placed money on the line, should. But I ask why would anyone who claims to not

own a share in a company take up such an attack on it, there must be or is a reason, simple!!

To-day or tomorrow as time allows for myself, I will try to go through all of my files and find

the press releases that show inconsistencies in news coming out on this situation.

One more thing, last summer or early fall, when PDG announced that they had lined up 200

million financing for LC, I stated either here or on SH, that the financing was in place, YES,

BUT, they would not have access to it without title to the property. Just last month, when

PDG announced that they were suspending their operations they also mentioned, problems

with the financing how did I know that then, but it took five months for PDG to let their

shareholders know. This release came out shortly after I had stated that PDG would now be in

damage control and try to down play the course of events. PDG's financing is contingent to title

to the property, for those who believe that this final decision is in regards to title, I must say

that you are all sadly mistaken.

Title to LC 4&6 belongs to Inversora Mael,that has been determined long ago, who are

owned by Crystallex, don't confuse what this court situation is about

With regards,Frank

P.S. I would like to thank Roy Carson for his contributions to bringing this situation to light for

all, and I hope you don't mind me posting this here on SI for all to read.

With regards,Frank

http://www.canoe.ca/FPInvesting/feb14_moregoldju.html

Mr. Munk said he would be an idiot to try to guess where the

gold price would be by the end of the year. Could we have guessed

that silver, universally described as the most unwanted commodity

produced by mankind, would be doubling in price when every other

commodity, from nickel, copper, aluminum and gold, has dropped by a

third? ( Munk said ) Silver, of course, has made a comeback because of

a massive purchase by superinvestor Warren Buffett. It turns out that

Barrick has the largest proven reserves of silver in the world. We were

ashamed of it until yesterday, Mr. Munk quipped. It's amazing how

Mr. Buffett can change your feeling of embarrassment into a feeling of

pride.

grant - maybe they're on strike.

First - Full Text Mode: I have never used it. I have never seen a need to use it. There are certain posters on Kitco ( not as many as there used to be ) whose posts I will almost automatically expand. For the rest, I can get enough of an idea from the subject and first line ( in short text mode ) mode to see if I want to read further. If I want to read a posting, I expand that posting. The idea of downloading every word posted on Kitco every time I log on is not something I have ever contemplated doing.

No wonder your bandwidth costs are rocketing. I respectfully suggest that you do away altogether with the facility for logging on under full text mode. If someone wants to read a complete text, all they have to do is click the more link.

Second: To raise money for Kitco, which I hasten to add, you should have already earned by your efforts, I suggest this. Password protect the discussion group. Issue username/passwords with the payment of whatever fee you deem suitable. Stress to all paying participants that the guidelines for Kitco are there to be followed and request that they read them. Warn in advance that gross breach of these guidelines will result in that poster's password being disabled. Your decision on this matter should be final. Oh, and don't offer refunds either.

Third: Advertising? Got nothing against it. When it comes on TV though, I usually reach for the mute button. I probably see 100 banners on websites for every one I click through. But then again, I personally don't see the WWW as either a TV substitute, or an entertainment medium. I see it as having two major functions. First, information. Second, and far more important, dissemination of IDEAS! That is precisely where Kitco shone, and sometimes, still shines.

The great beauty of the WWW is that anyone can say anything they want about any subject they care to address. It takes some effort to put up a website, believe me, I know all about it. It takes less to post to a discussion group. The results can be even more valuable, though, because the facility is there for instant discussion and elaboration.

The downside of this is, of course, that many people don't have much to say. So it has always been. But, the freebie mentality that pervades many areas of the WWW notwithstanding - TANSTAAFL. Bart, Kitco's discussion group is costing YOU money. You are not, if your recent postings are anything to go by, getting a reasonable return, either in cash or in satisfaction. Let those who simply want to be disruptive vent their spleen using their own bandwidth. Let them put up their own discussion group or website.

Whatever you decide, I hope it works out for you. I would really hate to see the demise of this discussion group. Oh, and I hope it goes without saying, I stand eager to buy my own way onto your site, as a lurker and an occasional participant.

In an ideal world, they should be encouraged to move out of the big cities before anything bad happens -- life just isn't fair, is it?

This can't be done in a large city. I consider myself a bit too much of an idealist -- but in this case -- I am not at all optimistic that anything significant will be done until after the riots.

When do the 'powers that be' put up the street lights at the intersection? Before or after someone dies?

I saw some Ahmish at work last weekend -- the Pennsylvania Dutch. And I thought -- what we need is for them to offer refresher courses in self-sufficiency. Good thing they have survived without full integration into our society.

Thus -- regardless -- this site must generate some income for you.

Hope this helps. Good night to everyone!

I just hope that Jin is as clever at hiding himself and his family as he is at getting us the news about SEAsia about 24hours early.

I wonder -- could you make one liners and single url posts free for the lurkers? Then lurkers could still post and maintain the Kitco spontaneity that makes this site so great! Perhaps you already said this and I did not understand. The lurkers would thus otherwise get the same access they have now, except they could not post long posts.

To be honest with you, I'm not sure why I am willing to pay when there are others much more knowledgable about the gold markets than me -- I think it is because I learn better this way than with short posts. Hopefully others like my input.

Now with wavepacket analysis the forward transform involves multiplying the time series data with wave packets ( discrete little things that are zero everywhere except in a narrow region of time, instead of the fourier sine wave, which exists for all time ) . Each region of time might for example represent one fibonacci series time interval duration. Many wave packets must be carefully chosen so that the time intervals of these packets match the hidden signal within the noise -- the fibonacci series/elliot wave time intervals. Also the wave packets must be an 'orthogonal set' so that a forward transform of the data with these defined wave packets can be mathematically defined so that the reverse transform from 'wave packet space' always returns the original time series signal. Now this 'wave packet space' is much more interesting than fourier frequency space, as one can actually see how well or how poorly the data fits the fibonacci series. Also, one can reconstruct simplfied time series reverse transforms with some of the wavelets missing -- so that one can see cyclic or non-cyclic time trends normally hidden in the original data.

Now I have left out several other complicating features. First, there are criteria that the forward and reverse transforms must meet so that one can predict future trends ( what we really all want to do! ) , and secondly if one does not know the actual wavepackets one wants to use, iterative calculations must be made. One could actually devise a smart program that could 'learn' how to generate the wavepackets by using prior data. This would work very much like a neural network, the 'learning' process being the same as recalculating the wavepackets.

All the above work -- somewhat daunting -- is worthwhile if you see the fibonacci series fall out of a wavelet ( simplified wave packet ) analysis of the DOW -- something impossible with Fourier series analysis.

I will be honest with you -- right now I understand the basic concept -- which is clearly Nobel-prize worthy -- but I don't know what the formulas of the appropriate wavepackets should be. The ideal situation would be a set of wavepackets especially designed for market time series, so that you would not have to recalculate them every time -- and this would save much computer time. The system would then only need to 'learn' what the coefficients are for these packets.

Hope this helps.

As I've mentioned the reason for this is the ever increasing cost of bandwidth due to the quantity of text that's being sent from our ISP. Full text access represents 95% of the damage.

How much will it cost to use full text mode? A mere $9.95 a month. That's $9.95 Canadian Dollars which is only about $6.90 USD. Since Canada is one of those countries whose central banks sold most of their gold holdings, the cost in US Dollars may soon be closer to $2.00 monthly.

All revenues will be used to buy our own dedicated high-bandwidth internet connection ( cost:$2800 monthly ) and hopefully an additional programmer ( cost: $3600 monthly ) which together will yoeld the following benefits:

1. Faster & more reliable access to the discussion group. Fifty users can be concurrently downloading full text with their 28.8 modems and experience no slowdown.

2. Programming modifications to the discussion group become a priority since we're charging for it.

3. A squelch function will be added for full text subscribers. And a subscribe function can be added which will allow you to receive postings by email. Permission of each contributor would be required.

4. When we get messages like HEY, it's really sllooooooowww, are you guys on drugs or just asleep?!, we'll have to respond respectfully.

5. Many other enhancements to other parts of the Kitco site will be started. Expect improved charting for current and historical prices, easier to find news headlines, quicker price updates. Even those who pay nothing would benefit.

I'm aware that charging for access to full-text mode may spell the beginning of the end of the group. But it shouldn't. Other discussion groups on the net don't even have a full text and offer ONLY the equivalent of our short text mode. I guess they already knew what we had to learn.

This a risk that must be taken since it is no longer possible for Kitco to continue financing the data transfer requests. I'm hoping that most of you will go for the full text option so we can continue making improvements as outlined above. A poor showing might possibly cover our present costs, but provide for little else.

Once again, I invite your comments.