I think we need to watch Argentina -- there must be a reason why they sold all of their gold reserves.

sharefin -- where are you?

BC has charisma, and is a natural politician. Most Americans are mesmerized by him, and have voted for him. I wish you were both right, but it is not so. Most people do not think for themselves to the degree that both of you or I do. I was fooled for about a year after the first election. Panda -- did you really check his record in Arkansas?

What we are seeing is a grand cycle of some kind, and the dirty laundry items that you implied -- Panda -- will not become public knowledge until the economy worsens, or we have a mishap in the Gulf. Given what OldSoldier has told us, few competent senior military men are left -- so it is only a matter of time.

There is one good thing in our favor -- thank god -- and that BC is not another Hitler. He has the charisma for it -- but he fortunately does not have the desire for power. That must be coming from somewhere else, and I doubt we will ever find out from whom.

I really do wish he would step up to the plate and address the international finance problems -- as the other world leaders want the US to do -- but that is unfortunately not in the cards.

Now I am beginning to see part of what prophesy is all about. If you can assimilate enought information to see what the players can and cannot do -- you see what is very likely to unfold. There may be some prophets who can see the future -- but some things do not require any unusual skills.

Wars, or 'military actions in the name of the U.N.', cannot be won or enforced without the foot soldier. To use the other elements of our military might in the absence of the foot soldier is folly.

Any action that we take 'over there' had better be decisive. Anything less will not be pleasant...

Time to hit the sack, good night all...

I'm not sure 'the dollar bubble will burst' in 1998. The Euro does not look much stronger than the dollar. And -- if Russis is imploding, the political/economic uncertainty of who will have control of all the nukes might keep the dollar up for a time. But -- regardless, the fundamentals for a gold rally are in -- and it F Veneroso is right the POG will reach equilibrium at approximately $600/oz ( that is what he said in December 97 ) . It will be interesting if his book says more.

It is not easy to see through the facade to see the emptiness there. In fact, most American presidents mature in their second term when they realize they have nothing to lose by doing what they think is right. Thus, even when they falter in the first term, the aging process seems to help. But not BC.

BC apparently only knows one thing -- how to get elected. He seems to be rudderless when it comes to foreign affairs. He has been nominated for the Nobel peace prize, but instead of 'going for it' he is hinting at using nuclear weapons on Iraq, and Saddam has done nothing aggressive other than irritate everyone regarding the inspections.

I got thoroughly enmeshed into the 'what will happen to Iraq' bit most of today -- but then I realized that the really important problem right now is not the Middle East -- it is a real potential for worldwide financial collapse. BC should be actively organizing meetings with all world powers, getting relevant parties together before we have a worldwide meltdown. If he does this all the xxxgate problems will be ignored, and he will deserve the Nobel peace prize.

Did you see that the essence of the DAVOS converence is that the key to the future of the world's financial system is:

1 ) Leadership role of the US

2 ) Japanese resolution of their banking problems

3 ) Non-devaluation of the Chinese Yuan

( and Russia -- don't know if mentioned )

The Iraq problem can sit for a while -- the Middle East is a powderkeg, but the fuse is not lit, and we already have two Carrier groups there. There is no need for us throw the first stone. If we do -- we will live to regret it!

Now I am beginning to see how certain events are unstoppable. I don't like what I think is coming, because two many different cyclic events seem to be converging. You do not need to be psychic to see what is going to happen. And -- I would gladly give away my hard earned savings if I could be assured of peace and prosperity in the world for a generation. Because -- why would I need the gold or other similar assets for a rainy day?

SilverBaron -- do you know?

The other more serious issues do not need military assistance, but diplomatic ones. Here's the chance for BC to go down in history -- if he's up to it -- and Monicagate will be forgotten if he pulls it off.

If you want to sling something -- what about a duel -- Camel dung at 20 paces?

Seriously -- it is getting tiresome. We have enough trouble with H----t as it is.

Going back to more gold-related matters -- did you find anything more about the 400 tonnes of gold loans the South Koreans forgot to pay back, or the business about the IMF wanting to sell their gold to prevent a Russian implosion? And -- does Hashimoto have a chance at reforming the Japanese banking system before it implodes? Or - a China devaluation?

Sorry --- I know you can't answer all this, my friend.

It seems that the DAVOS consensus centers around watching China and Japan, and a plea for the US to provide a leadership role. The way I read this is that BC should be following this lead, and become an international statesman. He has the brains and voice for it, but I suspect he does not have the character or the sense of history. What was he doing during those years of education, and the period at Oxford? ( I can guess ) . I think the Iraq issue is secondary to the current real risk of worldwide financial meltdown. We can play with Saddam after we have resolved the other crises.

Take care - Miro

Glenn,

Thanks for posting Martin Armstrong's site the other day. It got me to pen a new piece on golden eagle, called The 800 Pound Gorilla. Would be interested in your comments. Thanks again.

Let me begin by apologizing for the use of the word fool, but my point is that you can beat a dead horse all you want, it does not help. If we as a group can agree on some way, any way to get this valid point across to the idiots in power , than let us try. I think we all understand the dire implications of war [ any war] much less a nuclear war . But to post , post after post is a bit much. It is a very frightning thing, and I think most understand it's effect on the markets, in all likelihood there want be any.

Your friend, Isure

,

BTW, what that has to do with color of my skin? You keep amazing me. Keep doing it, if you are really black, you are disgrace to your many fine ‘brothers’ who are my friends.

That is my last response to your pitiful outbursts!

So now we have a racial problems on this forum?! I don't know about the rest of you but I am not able to determine a color of fingers touching a poster's keyboard!

And -- the last time the Israelis lined up for gas masks was years ago.

Of course the nonradioactive gold would become more valuable, and most paper would vanish in a puff of smoke. Lets hope we are able to resolve our differences in more rational ways.

I find it ironic that we now may risk nuclear war as a consequence of downsizing our military forces during peacetime. Downsizing is justifiable subsequent to the end of the cold war, but it seems that we should have been more selective, and not downsized our ability to wage a conventional war. BC considers entitlements more important that any thing else -- because of the vote factor, hence the low priority on the military. So here we are, about to fight Saddam Hussein, and our commander in chief is acting more aggressively than our former president, who is an ex-military man. And with minimal support from other countries.

All I can hope for is that our military commanders know what to do anyway.

By they way, as OldGold has said, we can safely say that anything that weakens US credibility in the eyes of the world will be bullish for gold long term, as gold is priced in dollars. Also any disruption of the Oil supply will be bullish for gold and oil. Decisive action in foreign affairs tends to be bullish for the markets, but it may be very short term if the flow of oil is hindered, or we experience a reversal of fortunes.

Do you think a flotilla of those small rocket-carrying speed boats could get close enough to the Eisenhower or the Nimitz to put a hole in one? That would be very bearish for the markets, and very bullish for gold, as well as being very bad, indeed.

Incidentally one of my friends has told me that after he retired from the Navy, he doubts there are many enlisted men like himself experienced in practical antisubmarine warfare. Lets hope those Irani missle subs don't get in the way. Also he told me that we got caught with out pants down during the Kuwait war, because we did not have many minesweepers. The only one was that fiberglass one. All the others were loaners from other countries, as I recall.

Thanks in advance for your comments!

Our whole approach has been to use nuclear weapons in a defensive role only -- with the exception of WWII. By using nuclear weapons in an offensive role against Iraq, we only encourage more use of nuclear weapons in the world, and we invite nuclear terrorism on our own soil! Did Russia use nuclear weapons on Chechnia? In Afganistan?

Is this the way we show the rest of the world how to settle differences between nations? Is this our high moral example? Did Saddam threaten to use Nuclear weapons?

This is why we need a strong conventional military. Otherwise, we risk escalation to WWIII unnecessarily. Do you think the Norwegians still are interested in giving BC the Nobel Peace prize after this? He is clearly not interested.

I wonder what our military experts say about those cheap little missle equipped speed boats that ran circles around our destroyers in the shallow waters near Iran and Iraq -- could a flotilla of these penetrate the defenses of one of our carrier fleets? I hope not!

My guess it that it will be just like the US post the 1929 crash -- no one will be willing to loan money, no matter how good the money supply terms are.

Now, what if the loans are guaranteed by the international banking community? We have been down that road before -- and that would probably lead to world - wide inflation.

This shows the folly of not having an effective troop presence near Iraq -- the potential escalation to the nuclear level is in, even before we start. This is the real danger we risk by downgrading troop strength and readiness.

I am worried for another reason in addition to our threat to use nuclear weapons -- which will not deter Saddam anyway. An -- that is that Saddam is in a 'no win' situation. If he persists in the status quo -- he will eventually be assassinated by the Iraqi's who are getting tired of seeing his supporters live well while the average Iraqi starves. So -- he has nothing to lose by an 'all-out' attack on Israel when the war of nerves with the US ends. I think he wants to make it look like the US is the aggressor in this next war, so he will go down in Arab History books as a martyr to the Arab cause -- the one who stood up to the 'great satan'. Anything less than self-immolation in this manner will mean that he will go down in history only as a 'madman'.

I hope I am wrong about this -- I think it is madness to go to the brink of Nuclear war to protect our oil interests, when most of our oil comes from other sources anyway. As someone on this site mentioned, our efforts in the Middle East would have been much better served promoting democratic moevements instead of 'supporting' strongmen like Saddam, even if that support is currently very subtle.

We should be trying to patch things up with Iran -- while it is still possible with the new moderate president. This opportunity will not last very long.

My guess is that we may have a major embarrassment from that part of the world -- what might happen if one of those little missle-equipped speed boats put a hole in the Independence or the Nimitz? Does Iraq have any -- or just Iran? And -- there may be a secret pact between Syria, Iraq , Egypt and Iran. This will not be the 'turkey-shoot' of the Kuwait war, so I hope we do it right, and quickly.

Do you know of any other situation where you as a mere human can predict the future with any uncertainty? I for one cannot.