It is nice to dream, isn't it, that one could be rich enough to afford $8,000/yr for investment expenses! I get grief for buying a computer!

Did you catch the $600/oz equilibrium price quote for gold once the CB's let go on their shorts? That is what I calculated about a year ago, based on the CPI for the last 100 years -- I posted this about 6 months ago, during a conversation with Mike Sheller about gold reaching $1000 or so in 2010+/-5, based on cycles.

I was beginning to think the $600 price was dreaming! This will probably take several years to unfold, and it requires that the deflationary 'scare' to end first. Since gold stocks go up 2x-3x times faster than gold, we should have a tidy 200%-300% profit.

As someone famous once said ( paraphrasing ) 'Whatever a man soweth, so shall he also reap'. What we sow will become very dear in the next two years, even without any inflation.

Undoubtedly Aurator will know the true quote, and who and when.

respectfully.

Al Gore, Bruce Babbit, & Bill Clinton absolutely

despise one US mining operation located in

Nevada that now has a huge SHORT position.

Do you suppose that they may choose to step

aside for a few months in order to deal a

crushing blow to that mining concern?

Bruce Babbit almost foams at the mouth when he

talks about how this company is

As you are no doubt aware it was the return of the AU standard to Britain after WW1 that precipitated the last depression.

As you stated, the wild card resides in the ME, which is why IMO, the U.S. needs a Saddam there.

Any idea why Cry0 is rising so steadily?

It is a shame that countries and politicians do not understand that while we are so different, we are all brothers on this ever shrinking ball that we call earth. In the months ahead I pray that that wisdom and forethought will guide them , and maybe a month or two on Kitco would not hurt.

Be kind today, for tomorrow is not guaranteed.

Greed turns to Panic

Panic turns to Greed

and assessed the royal oak venture while playing backgammon

with a brother from the desert. I offer my pitiful

findings.

I see reserves - 0.7 milloz at colomac and giant, 4 mill

oz at parmour and another 4 mill aT Kemess ( plus

considerable copper which I will ignore ) = call it 9 mill

oz of gold reserves. Its 9 month results as of sept 1997

were minus 0.45$ canadian.or say -0.30$US/sh on a production

of .284 mill oz. There are 139 million shares. Each

share represents 9/139 = 0.06 oz of gold per share

( little gold much paper ) .

Thus They lost ( 0.3$*139milshares ) / ( .284miloz ) = 146$/oz

( I can hardly believe this disaster my brothers it is

Satan's work ) .

Over that period I would assess the average gold

price at 340$ per oz thus by simple logic their average

cost per oz of gold would have been in the order of 146

plus 340 = $486/oz US.

Add to this the fact their reserves per share are

trivial and Al'lah must intervene directly to make

profits from this mine. Perhaps the shareholders

await his coming as well they should, enshal'lah.

They must be TRUE believers.

Al'lah O akbar

All of this makes sense -- doesn't it? The european central banks really weren't all that successful in working together, and the little ones probably precipiated most of the gold bear for the last 1 1/2 years by concluding that their gold was no longer of any value. And -- the big CB's added fuel to the fire by apparently selfishly claiming that they would control the EURO purchase and sale of gold.

As a very experienced Kitcoite said some time ago ( not me ) you don't need to think about international conspiracies most of the time, because most of the time the relevant countries of the world can't work together long enough to pull it off!

So -- our fledgling gold bull survives again! As far as I am concerned, the fundamentals are in -- just waiting for the gold bears to realize that the gold bear is over!

Of course -- investing these days is more like speculation anyway, unless all of ones assets are in physical gold.

I bet you are a fast thinker and talker -- am I right?

Thanks again!.

Phibro ( TRV.N ) named as defendant in silver case

NEW YORK, Jan 28 ( Reuters ) - New York law firm Lovell & Stewart filed suit in federal

court in New York late Tuesday against Phibro Inc and Phibro Energy Clearing Inc, units of the

Travellers Group ( TRV - news ) , alleging manipulation of the silver market, the law firm

confirmed Wednesday.

The suit, filed in U.S. District Court in Southern District of New York, under the Commodities

Exchange Act, alleges Phibro forced up silver prices artificially in late 1997.

The class action suit was filed on behalf of Kerry Seale and his privately held company, Golden

Harvest Co, based in British Columbia, Canada, but the suit provides for more plaintiffs to be

added to the complaint.

The suit alleges that Phibro with the help of other parties, including Republic National Bank of

New York, bought or removed silver from the warehouses of COMEX, a division of the New

York Mercantile Exchange and moved the silver to bank vaults in London to give the

appearance of a fall in silver supplies and force up silver prices.

The suit claims that ``Phibro and/or other defendants, acting for their own accounts and/or other

persons ( including hedge funds or commodity funds ) have participated in, or aided, the buying

and removal from registration of supplies of silver at COMEX.''

COMEX warehouse silver inventories fell steadily last year to a 12 year low around 109

million ounces from 203,450,783 ounces at the start of 1997. COMEX silver inventories have

since fallen further to 103,996,120 ounces as of Tuesday.

Defendants acting for their own accounts or the accounts of other persons ``caused formely

COMEX silver to be moved from COMEX storage, including some from Republic National

Bank of New York to London, England,'' the suit said.

The suit alleges that the activity by Phibro was carried out with the assistance of Republic

National Bank of New York and claims that the commodity trader J. Aron & Co Inc and ``other

persons'' made enquiries in Europe about resmelting COMEX silver bars in order to make them

more acceptable for storage at the vaults of banks which are members of the London Bullion

Market Association.

J. Aron & Co Inc is the commodity trading arm of investment bank, Goldman Sachs.

The suit notes that, in contrast to COMEX silver inventories, silver supplies in London held by

members of the London Bullion Market Association, are not publicly reported on a daily,

weekly or monthly basis, and are not part of the world's visible silver supply.

The suit said that by participating in the buying or removal of the registered silver from visible

COMEX silver supplies and by shipping such silver to non-reporting locations in England

( including the vaults of J.P. Morgan ( JPM - news ) and Credit Suisse ) , the defendants caused the

world's visible inventories of silver to decrease dramatically.

The lawsuit said that ``the motives of defendants in tacitly or explicitly joining together with one

another for their foregoing manipulative acts have been to engage in the self-fulfilling prophecy

of forcing up silver futures and other silver prices, thereby creating profits on their large silver

positions.''

The claim says that the defendants manipulation of the silver market was ``so effective that,

while COMEX gold futures prices plummeted to their lowest point in 10 years, the defendants

forced up COMEX silver futures prices to their highest point in almost nine years.''

The suit claimed that the movement of COMEX gold and silver prices in opposite directions

was ``unprecedented.''

This is my ackhuman for the day.

away... for real now

Éßgrindingandselling

btw...I was joking. Long liver....not silver. But, I have been long silver for some time. I took profits ( capped my call ) and need a bigger move to close out and walk ( or run ) away......shoulda shorted when I had the chance ( shoulda-coulda ) . But I still see 7 dollar silver ( and liver for that matter ) as pie-in-the-sky.....and I will let the markets prove me silly...oh my. These markets can be tough on you when you try to squeeze out every dollar you can from them. They have a way of taking back what they so easily gave, no? This is why I consistently 'hedge' my 'bets'.....it takes away from big profits ( sometimes ) but it allows you to stay in the game.....and I love the game.

away!!!$!

Éßlongjohnsilver

Saddam is the problem and his power is based upon the military. The answer is to destroy the military, meaning everything that flies, floats, looks like a tank, or stands around with a rifle in his hands. At the same time, conduct airdrops of food and candy to the populace with 'made in US' printed all over it. This would be preceded by leaflet drops telling that aid was coming for Iraqis.

My problem is that a major terrorist attack in the US is very likely anyway in the next 20 years or so.

What we should do instead of using the 'big guns' to punish Saddam is to use intrigue to get at the bunkers - James Bond style. But these days, noone seems to be up to that fictional standard. Unfortunately in our infinite wisdom, we let Saddam finish off most of our operatives in Iraq only about 6 months ago. It will be hard now to get support from any Kurdish resistors.

Makes that nomination of Clinton for a Nobel peace prize look like a good idea -- doesn't it. If Clinton risees to the occasion, and finds out a better way to dislodge Saddam than a tactical nuclear strike -- and really does forge world peace -- he will deserve the Nobel peace prize. But -- I challenge him to do this because I don't think he has it in him. I will take back everything I have said about him if he becomes the statesman he is intellectually capable of being -- if he can somehow reform himself into an individual of high moral character. He does not seem to want to go down in history as a great president -- only one with alot of time on his hands ( other hands? ) to get himself in trouble.

away

Éßsearchingforsomeonions

I can understand the personal dislike that Clinton engenders in many people but I am

confused by the response on this forum to his economics. By most any reckoning his

policies have been more economically sound than those of his recent predecessors.

Some of this can be attributed to a congress which has kept him from blundering in

healthcare, but he has carried the ball on trade initiatives and has been pretty good on

the budgetary matters. The whole CPI game is partly of his doing and is a clever way

to trim entitlement spending when it would be politically unfeasable to do it any other

way.

go bill, go...go bill, go!!! go bill, go!!! btw, Bill, tonights our monthly poke ( her ) night....what should I bring hahahahahaha, yu still da man!! Ammend the laws to bring him back for a third AND fourth term!!!! Yahhhoooooooo!!!!........ ( crowd is cheering ) ......hands slapping...... ( EB 'learning' more 'ACKHUMAN' ) ....... ( yuk, yuk ) .....now going to work.....

players ( I.E. the Suharto kids & the big bankers ) in key positions , you are destined to relive the same problems. When BIG boys make

mistakes they should be allowed to fail...not propped up

to fail again and again. So much for capitalism and free

markets! However in the end, sadly, we will all pay dearly

for their incompetance.

Did you both see my post regarding the fact that CB's do not physically exchange physical gold to and fro for obvious reasons, but use gold certificates of some kind -- another form of 'paper' ( this was from my 1990 Univ. of Warwick book regarding going back to the gold standard ) . I don't know who goes around checking on the CB's to see if the gold is actually where it is supposed to be, or if the gold certificates are all valid -- and how reliable this inspectors are if they do exist. We all know that if the inspectors are not checked periodically, things can get very loose.

There is a second point - Haggis -- that I think you have addressed, and that is the EURO. Will it 'go live' firmly fixed to gold? My impression is no -- after reading the Warwick book. All that has happened so far is that Germany, France, ?Italy are hoarding gold, to support the EURO.

The currency most likely to be rigidly linked to the price of gold will be one coming out of SEAsia -- and that will be some time from now. Until the time some other currency is firmly linked to gold, the dollar will probably remain supreme -- barring some new financial catastrophe.

Hence we will not be protected from financial turmoil since there will be no gold-backed currency for some time.

Unless -- do you think I can open up a savings account at the BIS? Can I send off mail order to set up a central bank for a single user? Me? Until then some physical gold looks pretty good, doesn't it?

away

Éß

Yu da man, BILL!!!! GO MAN, GO!!!!

In the new monetary Europe, will it emerge with a soft currency. I have heard these type of speculations, and they seem to say that they will be a positive effect on the future price of gold.

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/980126/business/stories/commodities_2.html

For those of you who are interested in Fidelity sector funds ( notably the gold funds ) there is an artificial intelligence stock forecasting system on the web at

http://www.duke.edu/~dhp/

which has a predictive accuracy in the 80-90% range. The system also forecasts Dow 30 stocks, major U.S. stock indices, as well as the Fidelity Sector funds. Recommends long, short, or cash position, and % change from short-term trend reversal point. The professor is also a manager of small hedge funds and runs equity accounts for some major U.S. corporate clients

Wednesday became the first German bank to admit

the Asian crisis was causing it serious pain, warning

that its exposure to the region would cut 1997

operating profit by a third.

In addition, Germany's largest bank said it will

need to restructure its operations taking a charge of

2.5 billion marks ( $1.4 billion ) .

Deutsche said it was also setting aside 1.4 billion

marks ( $777.3 million ) to cover the risks of what it

said was a 9-billion mark exposure to South Korea,

Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

http://www.cnnfn.com/hotstories/companies/wires/9801/28/deutsche_wg/

away...to sleep with both eyes closed.....zzzzzzz...

Éß

and I haven't posted Jake in a long time....good reading here.

http://www.trade-futures.com/reports.html

away...to buy the dip?

Éß

Date: Wed Jan 28 1998 00:51

The Hatt ( EB SPEAKS WITH FORK TONGUE!!!!!!! ) ID#294232:

Come on be serious, it was three weeks ago that you said gold was going lower and

$300.00 was out of the question. Face it EB your investment accumen leaves

something to be desired. Rather than speaking before thinking how about trying a new

version called LEARNING!

well.....I'm not sure how to respond and I have given it much thought AND time. And I am still not sure how to respond. So I will say this.

I NEVER SAID $300 GOLD WAS OUT OF THE QUESTION. PLEASE DO NOT EVER MIS-QUOTE ME EVER AGAIN!

My 'investment' acumen is someting that you will NEVER know about, but my 'speculation' acumen is here for all to 'archive' ( good calls AND bad ) . How is that for acumen? ( and the next time you would like to post to me or use my handle in one of your posts, please check your spelling acumen ) . I have a better idea. Skip over ALL my posts and do not EVER respond to me again, please. I will respond in kind ( unless you spew more crap ) .

Face this Hatt....wake up and buy some more gold calls....way out of the money so you can get 'em cheap!!!! And you can watch them expire.......with great impecuniosity....stuff *that* ackhuman ( bless you ) down your pants! ( btw, your precious gold is not yet out of the woods, and I am prepared for it, either way....and you? )

away

ÉßthinkingANDspeaking

god help me...most goldbugs are quite smart.....it's just those few that ya run acssrose ( whoops ) now and then...

of these wonderful properties, and everyone forsaking them. If you have

Sorry -- I don't ususlly stoop this low -- but it is getting late and I couldn't resist.

By the way, public opinion really is shifting. Even spouse, who voted by BC, because of all the 'good he has done' has come around. This Monicagate stuff is shifting the tide. The ebb and flow will eventually get the gold markets, and the equity markets to go the way we expect them to go, IMHO. But -- as we painfully know -- the markets make their own decisions when they want to.

Gung Hai Fat Choy to you and Jin!

We had our Chinese newyears banquet two days early. Spent hours talking to a fellow born in Romania, spent early years in Isreal, later years in Orient -- knows 8 languages! Just spent 10 years in Japan and Hong Kong -- most recent visit 2 months ago. Many topics discussed -- thinks SEAsia will take years coming back -- Asian solution -- European help ineffective. Thinks China will devalue yuan because nothing to lose as biggest potential market in Asia. Thinks Japan in deep trouble -- as we do. Hope to talk to him some more as he lives nearby.

My Bartlett's has only one quote from PT Barnum [1810-1891] -- 'There is a Sucker born every minute'. However, they were contemporaries, weren't they!

away...to catch some of those signals

Éß

If we use a random walk-type approach to this, and assume on average noone player gets all the money, I would bet that market fluctuations would still increase the number of big losers in the pool -- especially the relatively conservative players using Black-Scholes rules to get small profits with big investments. During the fluctuations, the Black-Schole predictions would be invalid, and certain derivatives investments that worked well in quiet times would be a wipe out.

There would be big winners also if they could stay one step ahead of the crowd. The short term market manipulators? But -- as we reach critical opalescence even the pros will get singed, IMHO. Wish I know more about derivatives.

If you look at the daily chart it looks like a giant foot ready to

kick something. I don't know exactly what to call this formation,

but I would be happy if it kicked up to the 13 area where it normally

resides. At these price levels, not seen in a score of years, I would

prefer no preaching about