Your website is excellent and a must visit for everyone interested in gold. I'm sure a lot of people, myself included, would be interested in knowing when new articles appear on your site. If you keep us abreast of those URLs once as they occur I don't think anyone could argue that that's advertising.

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/7953/USLongRates6.gif

The URL is http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/irates.html

It's true that long bonds did go slightly below 3.0% in the 1930s, but those bonds have been discontinued. The modern long bond, the 30- year bond, a creature of the fiat currency ( post Nixon closing the Gold window ) age, hit their lowest yields ever two weeks ago, and that's a fact.

I've held onto a couple of old gold- stock dogs that I would love to let someone else have ( for a good price ) , and attached myself one of these South African rocketships which will be headed for Mars if XAU 250 comes to pass....... Maybe just a bit premature to be dreaming that, however......IMVHO

George Cole Post 11/04/97 07:30

Gold bear not over yet, but looks in final climatic stage.

Fifty- fifty chance that bullion could make a final dive below $300 before it's all over. If that happened XAU might drop to 70 or even lower. But that would be the buying opportunity of the century. Just like the Dow at 800 back in 1982. When this secular gold bear turns decisively, the upside potential will be staggering.

I remember someone criticizing his use of the words fifty- fifty chance and might drop among other things from other posts. It was about that time that George moved out of the group. I believe George now posts from time to time under the handle Old Gold.

I really like your work, but I always seem to find an insufferable error in it. Your post tonight says:

The signal will come ...when a firm bottom is seen to be in on long- term ( 30- year ) Treasury bond yields. These are at their lowest level ever, and offer no risk premium at all for holders of long term $US debt.

I am very much in agreement with the idea that gold and rates rise and fall together. It is part of my analysis of the very long waves. However, long bond rates, corporate and treasury, are well above their AVERAGE rates for this century, and therefore NOWHERE near their ever lows.

The absolute low for US long bond rates was at approximately 3% in 1946, while we are at 6% , a 100% difference in the imputed CBOT bond price.

The rates are twice as high now, at the beginning of supposed deflation, because in fact we are simply resting quietly in a very long term inflationary wave post 1932.

If your point was simply that the 30 year bond was not continuously offered, or your point was simply an eye getter I will accept it. But that is not the point actually made by your post.

Date: Thu Jan 22 1998 21:51

panda ( highrise @ 21:22 ) ID#30116:

Thank you for stating the facts of the latest Clinton fiasco. This time it's about more than Slicks wet willy. If the charges have merit, oh my oh my. Keep an eye

on Rubin. If he exits stage left, the show is over...

Second; The Canadian dollar at 140 year lows versus the U.S. dollar? Could it be that they sold off all of their gold reserves? Hmmmm... Fireworks must be in the offing. The Canadian Central banks efforts at intervention were a dismal failure. To those who think that the Central Banks are omnipotent, think again. Who knows, maybe they'll be the ones driving gold towards infinity as they bid for it? Nah, just another kooky goldbug thing.... :- )

That was published on The Privateer's History of Gold Bottoms page on January 9.

Two weeks ago, the idea that there was any inherent risk in holding Dollars and Treasury debt was, pure heresy. If we are going to have a global debt- based monetary system, then SOMEBODY'S debt has to be inviolate.

As the perceived risk of holding Asian currencies went up, the risk premium on holding U.S. Dollars shrank to the vanishing point. It has now re- appeared - AND HOW!

There is no other nation in the world who would sit a world leader in an ornate chair in front of their assembled media and then act like he doesn't exist. Your estimation of Yassar ( that's my baby ) Arafat is not likely to be lower than mine, but the fact remains that he is a world leader.

There are times when One can only feel a sense of acute embarrassment at the displays of one's fellow human beings. Such a time was the circus of Clinton's press conference with Arafat. The American media may think that the President's latest alleged pecadillo is the only thing that counts. The rest of the world most assuredly does not.

It is pitiful that this is what it took to push Gold back above $US 300. The fact remains, though, that US long- bond yields have now been rising for two weeks and the fall of the Dollar against the Yen and the European currencies is accelerating. The rest of the world is forming a very low opinion of U.S. leadership, at precisely the wrong time for that to happen.

All Gold pages at The Privateer are now updated. Because of the hyphen problem, you'll have to cut and paste the URL on the subject line to go to our website. Sorry 'bout that.

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 20:17

oris ( ANOTHER ) ID#238422:

Thank you for your reply.

Oris:

The world oil market is very, very hard to understand.

If I could speak in a future time on this? I must be gone now for some time. Know this, my knowledge of gold is for the simple ones, of small thought, such as I. Resist the traders mind, hold your wealth close. There are those that will take your worth at the very time you need it most. Most will not see the time or place, few are allowed!

thank you

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 19:35

A.Goose ( ) ID#20137:

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 19:26

ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:

Mr. A.Goose, In our present system, all currencies are backed by the US$. As long as the US$ is on an “oil standard” of backing, no other country can change. The BIS would destroy their economy in a second of storm. Many think that a country may sell or cut it’s CB/US debt backing at will! They cannot, they willnot! Oil will not accept another system as long as the oil/gold bond works and the world currency system is somewhat in order. If a crisis erupts and gold breaks the bond with oil, then a change must take place!

We will no doubt see a mass run of CBs into gold at ANY price! This I know! As for now, each person must protect worth, as the nation/state is locked from change.

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 19:19

aurator ( & c. ) ID#255284:

Another

Mr. Aurator, Silver will always be part of “gold money”. But, is far too small a market for large, modern economies. Silver will do far better than any paper asset, only it will serve better as a “personal holding” than as a major money. If it is of your way to balance wealth, then silver will show value.

Metals have not shown their true worth for many years as the world has done very well. This is very good. But, all things do change! As it is our time and place to live this change, our thoughts must view the future as it must be. Who can know the minds of men and countries as paper burns?

Well said.

Santa- Clause Economy, built now for generations on the really BIG LIE:

an economic foundation of artificially created money & credit, created out of nothing; empowering the power- centers of the world to contol the destinies of nations, and the fate of millions.

I have a chart in front of me, from 1973, when I first embarked on economic seminars in the SF Bay Area, entitled: What Makes the U.S. Economy Tick? - & Why It is a Ticking Time Bomb! It had a longer fuse than I'd figured/surmised, at that time. But now, the fuse is, indeed, running out.

Gold is money, pure, enduring, stable, and simple. Deflation happens to currencies and credit instruments, just as inflation does, because these are the artificial contrivances of contriving, manipulating men and their institutions that power- broker the fate of the world, ( meanwhile lining their pockets behind closed doors and in smokey corners ) .

Deflation is the rising value of false money, and its concurrent abandonment of use in exchange. Its slow but inexorable disappearance from circulation, commmerce, and trade, will spiral the spreading world- wide delation into a self- feeding cancer of no return.

As the paper money & electronic credit of the corrupted realm, begin to decline into their inevitable demise, a crisis of distrust and repudiation; the world will have to resort to real money to save itself from isolationism, trade barriers, trade- wars, and ultimate ruin.

Gold- based money is the only historically proven monetary & credit life- boat, in this spreading sea of red ink, an ocean- flood, awash in corrupted, careening, uncontrollable paper currencies from all over the world - - scripted in every image & writ imaginable.

Whatever their name & pedigree, they are empty i.o.u.s' of government's currency & debt paper promises - - nothing but promisory notes promising nothing, in return...if push comes to shove.....as the peoples of the Asian Tigers are rudely awakening, to discover the horror of this reality. And it is spreading, yes, even to our hallowed, salty shores. ( We Americans, are long overdue giving up our self- absorbed, insular, center- of- the- universe, ethno- centric perceptions of reality. )

There are many trillions of these i.o.u.s, swirling & swash- buckling around the world, for the control- centers and power- grabbers of the highest bidder, to slug it out, over. And billions more i.o.u.s are being electronically- and printingpress- produced, weekly.

Once upon a time, counterfeiting ws against the law, even for

governments, and their favored bankers.

These government currency and debt paper instruments - bills, bonds, etc.; are simply so many government issued checks to you and I, & to all other goverment paper buyers ( like the Japanese ) . We simply haven't discovered yet, except among the Asian Tigers, that these 'checks' can bounce. We haven'tv- YET - all turned them in, for collection, at the same time. Don't wait to be at the end of the line.

Used to be, you the bearer of the curency or Treasury debt note, could get paid, with the paper redeemed, at any time, anywhere, in real money, gold & /or silver.

Governments the world over, will ultimately, by the force of natural events as they unfold, return to sane, stable, unshakable foundations for their monetary and economic structures and institutions. ( It simply isn't nice to fool mother- nature. ) Sooner or later, the piper will

have to be paid; the debts will be honored and repaid, or reputiated with the corresponding pain thus unleashed.

One, inevitable, fine day, the peoples & powers- centers of the world, will at last return to the discipline & integrity of gold money & gold- based credit instruments, in an international economy ruled by a commitment to banking principles based on integrity, open books; and universal principles and standards, that will be the bedrock of world- wide, productivity, flourishing trade, and creative technologies that will build us into the new millenium, beyond our wildest imaginations.

Oh yes, I almost forgot: the '73 chart is an overlay chart of the per- centage changes in the stock of HM, overlaying the crashing DJIA, from 1929, to 1932. HM, after an early fall in late 29, rose in the early '30s, appreciating 500% ,as the stock market crashed, relentlessly, time and again.... - wiping out the livelihoods & fortunes of millions.

Granted, the private citizenry's gold was government confiscated and then arbitrarily revalued from about $20/oz to $33/oz. by none other

than good ole FDR himself. He was, afterall, caught between a rock & a hard place, indeed.

Even so, the deflationary spiral of the 30s' repeating now in the '90s, for many of the same reasons ( - we never seem to learn ) , will witness once again, a bull market in gold, that will surprise a world awash in wishful thinking, denial, mis- education, and manipulation.

The rule of the day continues to be: sell out to the charade of the blind who keep leading the blind - like so many leemings rushing headlong over the cliff of the coming stock market crash, and into the crushing, crashing sea of wiped out fortunes - - including their life- savings, their retirement funds, their investmentnest- egg to pay for the kids' college educations.

There is a current educational crisis alright - - a monetary, finanacial, and investment one - - that calls for immediate attention, and action.

Go DROOY!

Date: Fri Jan 23 1998 18:03

oris ( ANOTHER ) ID#238422:

Would you please explain today's action when

gold went up $9.00 and oil dropped $0.30.

According to your scenario gold and oil should

move in one direction.

Mr. Oris, Oil is by far a much larger market than gold.

Many times over. Oil may be taken to $12/US, but this

is not a trading move. Only business. $12 oil did not require

gold to drop below $320 or so, as gold must stay above

perceived production cost. The drive to $280 was by the

paper market outside. The intent is for long term asset balance

not destruction! However, the currency market is close to

taking extreme moves. That will over ride intended results.

Do you really hold dollars?

It is important to understand that few persons or governments hold US dollars! Look at any investment portfolio and what you will find “are assets denominated in US$”. This sounds simple, but it is not. You have heard the phrase, “money is moving into real estate, land, oil, stocks or bonds”. It is a bad meaning, as it does not what it says.

All modern digital currencies do not go into an investment, they move THRU it. The US unit is only an exchange medium to acquire assets valued in dollars. US government bonds are the usual holding. No CB holds any currency! They hold the bonds of that currency. The major problem today, is that digital currencies have erased the currency denominations of all government/nation debt holdings! Even thou a debt is marked as DM, USA, YEN, they are in “real time” / “marked to the market” and cross valued in all currencies! No currency asset, held by CBs today are valued in the light of a single issuing country, rather “all currencies are locked together”. To lose one large national currency, is to lose the entire structure as we know it!

There is an alternative. Gold! It is the only medium that currencies do not “move thru”. It is the only Money that cannot be valued by currencies. It is gold that denominates currency. It is to say “gold moves thru paper currencies”. Gold can be used to revalue any asset, and not be destroyed in the process!

Mr. JTF has asked: “ I would be very interested in your response to my comments regarding why paper gold trading cannot distort the price of physical gold significantly - “

Reply:

In times of plenty, people say one thing about physical gold, but in time of change they do the opposite. History has shown that when paper assets start to be revalued downward by gold ( gold rises ) , it’s physical supply dries up! People and governments “HOLD” the real physical and trade the paper, even gold paper. Never before in history have we had a

gold market such as today’s! It has cross currents from every direction.

You have CBs that highly value gold, but need it’s price in currencies to fall as a means of pricing oil.

You have merchant banks creating a huge “digitized paper gold” market for trading only.

You have other CBs holding gold in the form of “paper commitments” and calling it physical.

You have some CBs having nothing to do with any of this and buying in the off market.

And finally, we have the threat of gold becoming an “oil currency” with the risk of total nationalization by any country that is short of both oil and gold!

The Paper Gold Market today could completely destroy the physical market by shutting down all possible trading as the currencies are devalued by gold in a massive upheaval!

A regression analysis of Pan American Silver ( PAASF ) shares vs. nearby silver futures over 508 continuous trading days, in up and down markets, yields the following correlation:

PAASF ( $/share ) = 2.73 x silver price ( $/oz ) - $6.03

The correlation yields the following share price vs. silver price: $10.35 @ $6 silver, $13.08 @ $ 7 silver, $15.81 @ $ 8 silver, $18.54 @ $ 9 silver, $21.27 @ $ 10 silver, $48.57 @ $ 20 silver

Now, all we have to do is find out what price silver is going to go to.........

Regression summary:

Multiple R 0.888123

R Square 0.7887625

Adjusted R Square 0.788345

Standard Error 0.5583664

Regression coefficients

X Variable 2.7292732 Std.Error 0.0627891

Intercept - 6.025643 Std.Error 0.3182666

Upper 95% confidence

X Variable 2.852636

Intercept - 5.400356

Lower 95% confidence

X Variable 2.6059138

Intercept  - 6.650929

There's always a risk that COMEX may default but it's like the same type of risk that banks for example won't honor their financial commitments. At the worst I would expect that they would just make you wait a little longer for delivery or maybe roll your contract forward to the next delivery month. When there were defaults in the OTC platinum market ( summer of 1997 ) they just ended up waiting an extra few days for deliveries. No big deal for the guys leasing it.

I will not argue, and to you sir , I say to each his own!!!

I love reading all forms of novels, in fact, I probably would enjoy your's.

That's the theory. In practice there are transaction costs you'd want to justify so it may or may not be worth it.

Others here have talked about defaults on the silver contracts. When somebody defaults it means they don't deliver your silver when they said they would. See my next post.

If the dollar drops precipitously, say more than several percent a day, for several days, the stock market might crash - - just as it did in 1987. Then gold stocks would be a very bad bet for two reasons - - the PTT might step in and push gold/gold stocks one more time - - or gold stocks might get sucked down just as they were in 1987. AG will use everything in his power to protect the dollar if it drops too quickly.

My point is that I think we should not jump into gold with both feet until after a significant stock market correction, or when we see steady accumulation into gold stocks. I think we will have plenty of opportunity to invest in gold stocks in the years to come without risking all of our assets right now. Some of us are experts with options, where the risk is much less - - this may be the best way to profit when we may be riding on the top of a gold bug Tsunami!

I have always had a spot reserved for some S.A. shares in my holdings. I find that when they perform, they perform well. My question was more along the lines of some un- reported news happening. I guess the 'un- reported' news was that gold was going to rise? :- ) )

complaint that Clinton was cheating on her with four other women during the 18 months of an affair, three of whom she

claimed were White House staff members. Attorney Ginsburg said that during hours of talks with Lewinsky last week,

while he was not present, FBI agents and U.S. attorneys working for independent prosecutor Kenneth Starr asked her

to be outfitted with a secret tape recorder to capture the comments of others. He said he was not permitted to say

whether Starr's potential targets were President Clinton and Clinton's confidant, Vernon Jordan.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1998_01/23/152600po.htm

paper. Players said hedge funds were big contributors to the selling in bond futures.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1998_01/23/163900ec.htm

I'm proud to say that I'm a Canadian, land of the northern peso.

What did you mean when you asked if I knew how to spell insight? You would'nt be trying to incite a fellow Scot into trading insults with you,

now...would you?

16. He also forced everyone, small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on his right hand or on his forehead, 17. so that no one could buy or sell unless he had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of his name. 18. This calls for wisdom. If anyone has insight, let him calculate the number of the beast, for it is man's number. His number is 666.

In our Christian religion this occurence signifies the beginning of the end of worldly existence, and those who bear this mark are damned.

So I ask you, can you really believe this is good ?

Go, baby, go!

Heard a rumor today about China lowering the country's internal price of gold. Don't have a clue what this means. Sounds a lot like the changes India made. Would appreciate any info about China's gold policies. Thanks.

The world is a funny place. You wake up one morning and everything has changed. As one of the most vehement gold bears on this forum, I have had plenty of harsh words for gold.

No more.

I like it. I think the downside is just a retest of the lows around $280. I think it is much more likely that gold will rally. I'm not calling for an explosion, but I would like to add my voice to those that say the bottom is in.

heEBee jeEBee boy….. Careful with those shorts. Today was short covering but I think new buying is going to enter the market. I would not get in front of this train, the risk/reward is all outta' whack. Lower your skirt.

LGB @ Yassirs Goat -

See my Jan 22 @ 21:49. Heard the goat thing on the radio.

Away……………..Go Gold!!!

Date: Sun Jan 18 1998 09:46

sharefin ( Worth a re- read ) ID#284255:

http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER3.html

ANOTHER updated plus a couple of old ones I found.

Mr. Sharefin, Thank you for saving these. There is much more to this.

________

REPLY:

Date: Sun Jan 18 1998 09:37

A.Goose ( ) ID#20137:

Date: Sun Jan 18 1998 06:17

Junior ( @ ANOTHER ) ID#248180:

“ The baseline I see from ANOTHER's comments set the final stage for fiat

currency, as we know it today. I believe that ANOTHER's thoughts spell the death of the U.S. dollar as we know it today.”

Mr. A.Goose, Thank you for all your thinking ( only part of post is above ) . It has long been a worry that the US$ and it’s oil backing would some day come undone. I will post tonight between your 6:00 & 7:00 US /EST. More thoughts and replies.

_________

REPLY:

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 23:55

JTF ( Areas of General Agreement ) ID#57232:

ANOTHER: I think there is much that we can agree on. I don't just mean myself, but fellow Kitcoites.

Here's to the future!

Mr. JTF, There is much more to your post. You always consider all things. We look to the future for change, to change is to live!

________

REPLY:

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 18:14

JTF ( I look forward to your comments! ) ID#57232:

ANOTHER: I would be very interested in your response to my comments regarding why paper gold trading cannot distort the price of physical gold significantly - - although price swings might be increased or decreased somewhat depending on the trading - - but not enough to shut down the gold trading market. My sources were D.A., a commodity trader who posts

JTF: I will discuss tonight! Thank you.

______

REPLY:

Date: Sat Jan 17 1998 13:53

Lurker 777 ( Another what? ) ID#317247:

Another:

Mr. Lurker 777, You honor me sir. I only ask that you consider my thoughts. “ a truth spoken is for the benefit of many and never a gain for only the one”

“Many outcomes can grow from earth, as nations cultivate the soil differently. To understand the climate, is to make ready for storm.”

______

REPLY:

Date: Thu Jan 22 1998 18:51

Cmax ( ANOTHER/GOLD/OIL ) ID#339320:

For all you doubting Thomas':

Mr.Cmax: Sir, Some think my thoughts are as “hogwash”? Several CBs use “agents” to buy gold. Some agents, small, some large, some “BIG”. They buy much from $365 down, all last year. Even today, it does not show. This world, it is strange, yes? I would say “Big Trader” has little time for “washing the hog”! But you sir have a large shovel and dig very

deep! It is written, “all holes in earth lead to china”!

Hey look old buddy -

DDeeps up 31% , st helena up 28 % , Kloof ( a dog ) up 21 % ,

My harmony up a crummy 10 % Even ASA up 10% - I wonder about

randfonts and my e- dagga ( which pays a 30% dividend ) are

doing - and My options on DD ohboyohboy and Rangy and

my avgold which had already doubled but freddy assinslop

er sassisfras - what was it had said was finished - where

are they - wont know till monday - ill have to live with that.

Why exactly was it that your followers who hang on your

every misspelled word were NOT supposed to buy these stocks.

Pray tell me master Zadeek .... Your humble servant wants

to know how one man can be SO WRONG - - - Where are you

Has daddy sent you to your room

To James - Thank you Sir James for that sideways

compliment - I think ? Who cares James - insult me

compliment me - Im making serious dough.

The trail has been long and dusty, now I am hoping for a golden pillow, on which to lay my weary head.

My impression of all this is that if a crisis in the world banking system is imminent, gold/gold stocks may not be a good investment, simply because the powers that be will suppress gold at the first hint of trouble. If the CB's have loaned out 1/2 of their gold, that means they still have the other half to loan out. There may be less than 1/2 of the CB gold to loan out if we exclude Germany, France and Italy.

Investment is really complicated these days, because the traditional rules of gold as a flight to safety do not necessarily apply.

We must be patient, and wait for the powers that be to shoot their wad. When there is no need to suppress the price of gold, then gold/gold stocks will be an excellent investment.

Ted, thanks for support for Japan post. Haggis & his buddies may be right in the long term...but will they still be around.

Thanks for all the great info you provide to the group here.

Having put 50% of my portfolio into Durban Deep and Randgold over the past two months, I owe you guys a BIG Domo Arigato Gozaimasu!

Make that up 37 % TODAY for Durban Deep - Now Why was it a

bad deal please

I really want to watch you misspell your way out of this one.

Polar bears are in the Black - congrats.

away

Éß

away...to shake my head at the feeding frenzy......dateline and 20/20 and Geraldo, and Koppel, and Rather, and Sam, and .... ( etc ) ....zzzzzz.....what a pile of crap to 'feed' the people because the 'newsanchors' think we want all this crap shoved down our throats and they need to get ratings to demand greater salaries.....etc, etc.......... ( duh ) ......how utterly sad......... ( yawn ) ...

Éßkeepinghisflyzipped

if the fall of the canadian $ has any connection to it.But i don't think

that all this merger activity is coincidental.We, the public are sure kept in the dark.Just don't rock the financial boat......

speaking of....

poorboys, yes the volume/oi will be important. It needs to get heavier. If on this next fight ( flight ) down by the bears' we don't see new lows I will consider going long. Hep has said that the bottom is in...I respect him as a market soothsayer ( and I don't need no explanations, just results ) ...go hep.

I will sell this rally though. There is still some $$ to be squeezed from this market for the bears. Positioning oneself to go both ways ( ohmy! ) and profit from one of the moves is something that I am working on right now ( with some lovely options ) ...uh huh. :- 0 ( apologize for using alot of first person ( as someone here doesn't like ) , it is the nature of me as a beast ) .

.......These here currencies are a MOVING!! YAHOOOO!! God, I love 'moving' markets!

StudioR - now git yer dumb- ass back here ya' hear!?

good stuff Irvine...the ( our ) prez needs to shut his piehole.....and this 'new' rally STILL looks like short covering....as you said last week. And the sellers will circle the wagon trains...and break out the winchesters... ( bang! ) ..... ( ugh ) ...gold has been shot, again...

Bart, too much crap and not enough substance .....well....I guess you're right. go gold!

Aurator - I wish they would show cricket ( in US, I don't have a dish, like cable ) now and then. Not much interest here....too bad, I enjoy it. Similar to me baseyball...'tis that.

away...to lurk again...

Éß

You may be surprised to hear that DBN deep is UP about

30% TODAY. Please explain to all of your followers

exactly WHY we were not supposed to buy it. We await your

guidance oh mighty one from your beautiful home in

technicolour dreamland.

Your comparison of DDeep a highly geared high cost

un hedged mine BEFORE it merged with Buffles and

Blyvoor with ABX a Fully hedged low cost producer is

fairly typical of the way you analyze things.

Your comparison is worthless - obviously you want

to BUY an UNhedged HIGH cost mine If you think that

gold is going up. Its relative profits per share will

soar as will its price as a result.

If you think gold is going DOWN, you dont want to buy

either a high or a low cost gold mine. Buy something

else - or hold cash.

What is it with you You hold a lot of ABX and

afraid to be left holding the bag YOU know -

vested self interest - Why do you work so hard

to talk up overpriced NA stocks? What are your

motives

Cmon man - life is short - I hate to think of spending

mine trying to straighten up the sloppy trail of badly

spelled misinformation you leave in your wake.

Give us a break - talk about something that you know

something about - there must be something

Detailed results for Anglos follows

Elandsrand 0.33R/share versus 0.19 prior Quarter

ERGO 0.32 versus 0.29

Fregold 0.23 versus 0.51

Vaal Reefs 5.04 versus 3.71

Wstn Deeps 2.84 versus 1.98

for those that have the spreadsheet set up in

excel - you can plug this numbers in in $ and

calculate the avg per oz cost of gold for these

mines using a gold price of 305- 310 for the 4th

quarter.

To Mr zadeek

I think you should discontinue upur association with

the Mining anal- ist you mentioned a while back -

sounds like henry sassifras ? I forget exactly -

I wasnt paying much attention. Im sorry - He should be

too. He owes everyone an apology for spreading serious

misinformation.

Also to Mr Zadeek

The PW BOTHA trial today in George was adjorned for

30 days. There was a demonstration by about 350

rent a crowd ANC supporters and the paper reported a

handful of elderly right wingers supporting PWBotha.

As usual, the press was much better represented than

either the ANC or the right wing. If this is to

be the spark that sets off a revolution, I believe

the revolution may be somewhere else altogether.

Maybe a revolution of disguntled TV viewers in some

other country annoyed at having to watch such pointless

and irrelevent crap on their tv screens. ( Just

keeping you in the political picture ) . In future I

will stop reporting this boring political stuff about

RSA unless some outdated expert starts sprouting off

silly and misleading stuff.

To Oris

I finished off my first teboulleh today.

DEE- licious - I tried adding a little mustard and some

balsamic vinegar in addition to the other stuff Plus

black pepper and cumin seed. You would have liked the

cricket. I ate and watched. Next stop - shellers beans

and rice.

You say you are an agent If you are an agent for

sun glasses or sand shoes I hear the Chinese maybe

looking for one billion pairs of each for their new

Aflika Korps.

To Salty

That was some match - my god. RSA is a very spirited

side.

Some people go through life trying to pull down others - must be a complex of some sort. Sad way to live a life. Best to let them drift away to bite others.

Anyway I'm a Canadian and can put 20% of my RRSP stock plan in foreign issues. I was wondering about the dividend return of RSA stocks. Would you know what percentage of earnings are returned as dividends for Drooy or Deep Durban? Thanks.

I tried to post before, but it disappeared.....

One reason NA stocks may be lagging SA stocks is the cost of their gold reserves;

For example,

A NA gold miner -

ABX cost of reserves = total market cap in US$ divided by total ounces of gold reserves or about ( if my stats are correct ) $130/oz of reserves

vs. a SA gold miner -

DROOY cost of reserves = $2.38/oz of reserves

Go figure.....Even if one argues about the quality and accuracy of the reserve estimates, there is a very large difference in the way these companies are valued, in favor of the SA gold miners.

You are asking the wrong man - ever since I came on this

site Ive been saying that RSA stocks are cheap and NA stocks

are expensive. This is not my opinion - this is just numbers.

One guy in the group says that I am saying this because of

vested self interest - he says things like that because

he hasnt grown up yet and is not fully literate. I live in RSA

but my dough doesnt live here. If I want to I can buy NA

stocks but Id keep cash if that was my only option. I buy

RSA golds and plats, then Aussie gold juniors - I dont touch

NA stocks.

I dont CARE if people buy RSA stocks or not. I get nothing

either way. I dont want to write a newsletter. Im in this

group and I try to participate as best I can ( if its not too

much work ) .

I hope for your sake that your NA mines go up, BUT if

they do, I THINK that RSA mines will go up faster. One

man's opinion.

Your post from 21:41 yesterday concerning the formation of a triangle could prove to be a good call. Given that VIX is suggesting a decline ( short term indicator ) , and the insiders have shifted to the buy side ( intermediate term indicator ) , we could soon see an Elliott E of 4, with a final thrust to new highs as the Oldman is expecting. If so that fifth wave out of this triangle could be a sight to behold!

There's a turkish expression that I like a lot and it

goes like this -

Australia was rocking a cradle all evening and then

they found out that it didnt have a baby in it.

What a match - RSA's not a bad side, hey. That would

eaily be one of the most exciting sports events I've

even SEEN in my life.

for the last quarter, and said they expected improved results

for the next quarter.

http://www.stockscape.com

( you may have to subscribe electronically to
access the archives, but is well- worth the
money IMHO. ) I posted the earnings forecast for DROOY from this article into the buy- and- hold message board of

http://www.ragingbull.com

some time ago.

Some detailed company information on Durban Roodeport Deep is available in the company section of

http://goldsheet.simplenet.com

There is frequently information on SA gold mining companies at

http://gold.org
http://www.bday.co.za

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980123/gold_opens_1.html

European gold market opens

European gold market opens

Look winston - what can I say - Im not really a RSA salesman.

RSA stocks are cheap - NA stocks are overpriced by a HUGE

amount. Please try looking up my earlier posts - I want to watch

cricket and Jonty Rhodes.

US National Debt..........

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

FOOD FOR THOUGHT.............

1 ton = 1.016 tonne = 1.016 Mg = 0.0326 Moz

Worlds annual gold production = approx 2 500 tons

= 81.662 Moz

At US$290 per oz.........

Total US$ value of worlds annual production = US$23 682 000 000

Now say US National Debt per day increases by US$ 1 000 000 000

per annum = US$ 360 000 000 000

Now......... Debt per annum MUCH GREATER THAN annual gold production

Add on the actual outstanding Debt of US$ 5.3 trillion........

It would appear that even although gold is a political metal at this time..........WHAT SHOULD IT'S REAL VALUE BE PER OUNCE ?

Surely not US$290 per ounce..................

Ps hope I got my figures co

G'Day Mate,

I assume you are a YANK, hence the reference to Septic Tank.

The US National Debt is approx US$ 5.3 trillion, the US gross assets are valued at US$ 1.3 trillion. You are technically insolvent, and at some point something has to give ....

The Almighty Dollar, is a figment of your imagination, no ones else......

http://www.japanecho.co.jp/docs/html/240506.html

The Japanese, well they may be down but they are certainly not out. For example, IF the entire worlds' surface gold supply was put on the market, the Japanese could easily buy and aborb it......they are not going to absorb your debt in the long run.

Do yourself a favour and swallow some disinfectant !

Aye Haggis.

Your questions are good - too good -

Ill answer one -

Nothing happened before you were born. Because Life is

a hologram and you are the laser beam. Without you, I

cease to exist. There is really no GOLD, it's only a bunch

of numbers that you create. There is really no one on

kitco. Im just talking to myself. So are you. So dont get

too concerned over things. They arent there anyway.

Really - You seem to believe that it is BAD to save and

live frugally and GOOD to borrow a spend more than you

have - And that the Japanese are in trouble because of THAT.

I think Asia is in trouble because it accepted money pushed

on them by foreign banks and accepted US dumbo debt

as Reserves. They should have financed themselves by selling

their OWN debt rather than via bank borrowings, and used

gold as reserves rather that US treasuries. When they get out

of this, I dont think thet will make this mistake again.

I know its trendy to bad mouth Pinochet, and Im sure Jane

Fonda or B. Streisand would approve, BUT I dont think Chile

is a major exporter of either Coffee or Bananas. Chilenos

live fairly well too.

Someone is confused on Gold production. Suggest

write these numbers down somewhere- this is what I have.

If you have something else - please say so. Numbers

in tons for top 6 producers. I get a total of only

1570 tons - Can that be right

Rsa - 495

USA - 315

Aust - 300

Can - 160

China - 150

Russia - 150

For Earl

Regarding Areas - I see no point in messing with

West Areas - I know they had good results ( which I

seem to have misplaced ) - but I THINK ( ) they have

been sold to Anglos - in that case their price will

simply float as a percentage of the Vaal reef price.

On the other hand, the JCI/Anglo/Lonrho deals have

gotten so confusing that I dont think anybody

understands who is buying who. Seems like Kebbel

and Mzi just fight and screw things up and Lonrho

is brain dead or half asleep while Anglos circles like

a vulture waiting for someone to make a mistake -

which there seem to be plenty of.

If you want a solid blue chip take vaal - that way

you get West Deep and west Areas anyway ( I think ) .

For Oris

I cant see the Chinese fighting in the desert. But

a friend of mine in the spectacle trade says he's been

invited to quote on a billion pairs of sun glasses.

And another guy in the shoe business has an offer to

quote on a billion pairs of sand shoes. All destination

far East. If you send me your recipe for Mongolian beef,

Ill send you mine for a bedouin left handed camel grab.

Millions of people are living at a bare subsistence level in latin america, so that we can live well. Ever heard of Pinochet?

Sharefin: Please check the new netiquette rules. We're trying to cut out the ads. Thanks.

vronsky - Your website is excellent and a must visit for everyone interested in gold. I'm sure a lot of people, myslef included, would be interested in knowing when new articles appear on your site. If you keep us abreast of those URLs once as they occur I don't think anyone could argue that that's advertising.

ALSO..This a GOLD discussion group. The subjects of silver, platinum and palladium may also be broached.There is no question that presidential sexual harrasment is a lot more interesting than metal. That's why there's lots of discussion going on about it all over the internet. In an effort to get the bulk of the dialogue back to boring gold please continue the Clinton stuff at any of the following locations. In fact if you know of a better spot, please post it.

Excellent, excellent places to talk about Bill, Paula and the US administration: ( These are just a few )

alt.society.liberalism

talk.politics.misc

alt.politics.usa.republican

alt.society.conservatism

alt.politics.clinton

alt.current- events.clinton.whitewater

At least temporarily.

Re: Japan being a creditor nation & the U.S. being a debtor nation.

What good has it done the Japanese? They're living in rabbit hutches in polluted cities. They need to be a millionaire to join a golf club.

It's really strange how an intelligent people ended up in such a sad predicament. Who ever said life is supposed to be fair?

Night all.

Japan is screwed because they cannot consume their way out of this mess &

as you probably know the consumer is 2/3 of their gdp.

I have some insights as to why this is true. My daughter in law is Japanese & has been in Canada for 7 yrs.

The Japanese live in tiny houses & apartments. My son & daughtr in law live in an 700 sq ft apt here in Victoria. That apt would be considered an average size for a family with 1 or 2 kids in a large city in Japan.

If the Japanese had an inclination to start consuming & buying a bunch of junk like we do in N. America, where would they put it? Would they want a 60 inch TV in a 10 by 12 room. Only a very small % of the population own homes. Besides that, as you are no doubt aware the Japanese like minimalism. They don't like clutter in their lives, even if they had a place to put it. On top of all that, demographics is against them. They are the most aged population in the world & know the state won't be able to help them with medicare & social security.

Put all these things together & you have a recipe for disaster.

In the book Watership Down rabbits, caught in the beam of an onrushing headlight, would freeze and simply stare in terror. They went tharn, as this condition was called in the book.

At the photo op this am, Clinton looked like he was going tharn.

& figuratively speaking screwing the U.S. Don't you agree that the politicians in the senate & congress ( past & present ) are responsible for the multi trillion $ debt that will eventually destroy your Country?

As for adultery, I'm not sure what an accurate figure would be for men, but realistically would have to think 70% +. And it has been proven that the higher the education & income level, the higher the incidence of adultery. As for the other transgressions that Clinton has been accused of, I don't really have any idea of their veracity, but doubt very much if they have ever endangered the security of your Country.