Is it Japan selling dollars and buying gold, or is it something else?

Someone else selling dollars?

Any ideas why the Cry0 went up so much today? It might give us an idea why gold and silver are behaving the way they are.

I'm kicking myself for not buying silver stocks yesterday - - I was hoping it would go down one more day!

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html

MURRSTEIN ( ) ID#348295:

I have been long gold stocks for over 13 months, but enough

is enough. I have suffered long enough. I have a very large

position in a certain gold mutual fund, and I hate to do it,

but I totally give up as of today. They have given up it

appears to me, so I will too.

NO MORE...

/\

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++||+++++++++++++++++++++++

||

||

||

Quoth the raven...

Sunshine is THE silver mining company that most investors from the 70's think of when they look for silver shares ( Once traded for $30/share ) . There is lots of liquidity with all those shares, so institutions will be big buyers when they finally get the message.

Heaven knows, all these things are risky - PAASF and SSRIF have a sizeable portion of their silver reserves in RUSSIA, which could turn into a meltdown, or worse. It's all a crapshoot, but the odds are in our favor this time.

I

In a serious deflationary scenario, items of silver which carry a high ( luxury or collector ) premium over bullion might not be a good bet, as they would be in an inflationary environment where everyone has lots of money to spend.

Most of my personal silver is in ( non- proof ) eagles and junk silver, but I have hedged my silver bullion bet a little by buying some of the high- end stuff, just in case the radical appreciation theory turns out to be real.

depository, then it would be necessary to melt and recast his gold

bar before resale. Anybody know why is it not sufficient to

measure the density of the gold to determine the purity? One would

certainly detect a lead filler from this. Since any potential

filler except platinum would be lighter than gold, one can detect it

from density. Only a mixture with a high propotion of platinum and

a small part of another metal can match the density of gold- for

example, platinum and lead in roughly 6:1 ratio. But such a mixture

would cost more than gold ( at current prices ) , so there would be no

incentive to use it as a filler.

Global Intelligence Update

Red Alert

January 14, 1998

IMF Warns New Zealand

The IMF has warned New Zealand that external shocks, meaning the Asian

meltdown, have made the New Zealand dollar, the kiwi, vulnerable. This is

not surprising. As we have stated, the exposure of Australian and New

Zealand banks to the Asian crisis is difficult to quantify but is

undoubtedly substantial. However, the warning was not only about external

shocks. The IMF also stated that, Growth has slowed, the structural

fiscal surplus has been reduced, private savings is low, competitiveness

has deteriorated and the current account deficit has widened... Directors

generally believe that it would be advisable for the authorities to tighten

policies to minimize the risks, particularly in light of current regional

uncertainties, with a number of directors considering that fiscal

tightening could be achieved by scaling back medium- term expenditures.

This is easier said than done. The report points out that New Zealand has

an aging population, and the greatest pressure on the budget is retirement

benefits. The IMF explicitly calls for the imposition of cost controls on

retirement expenditures, which would limit both eligibility and pay- outs.

This is an explosive issue in any advanced industrial country. It is

particularly explosive in New Zealand where the Labor Party, with a long

traditional of social welfare programs, has a substantial lead in the

polls. The IMF advice is sound, but won't be followed for political

reasons.

Thus, the Asia crisis has entered its second phase in two ways. First, the

problem has now fully manifested itself in Asia as a political problem

rather than as a primarily economic problem. Second, the Asian meltdown is

now affecting other countries. The problem is not so much the effect that

the Asian crisis has had on New Zealand. Rather, the problem is that the

Asian crisis, added to fundamental structural weaknesses, has turned a

long- term issue into one that is quite pressing. New Zealand has lost

several of its export markets and its banks have made bad loans. By

themselves, this would not threaten New Zealand. But the Asian crisis has

served to turn what would otherwise be long- term issues into matters for

immediate attention.

The New Zealand situation should be studied carefully because it provides

hints about possible future paths for countries not directly or massively

affected by the Asian disease. First, it provides us a sense of how

demographic and structural problems, when combined with banking and export

problems, can create a serious problem where neither alone would have done

so. Second, it shows that the Asian crisis can move up the timetable for

other longer- term economic problems, by magnifying issues that appeared

previously to be postponable. Finally, the general political tendency in

advanced industrial societies of late has been a backlash against the

process of deregulation that dominated the 1980s and early 1990s. This

means that the political configuration in New Zealand and other countries

is not now oriented toward rapid and effective solutions that impose

structural shifts or even short- term pain. All of this is exacerbated by

the business cycle in many countries. After several years of expansion,

the vulnerability to economic shock is increasing.

As the IMF report reveals that the problem here is not Asian exposure, but

structural weakness. This is magnified by the Asian shock and made

unmanageable by political factors. The danger now is a domino effect, with

the weaker and more politically constrained economies either being forced

to impose austerity or, even worse, being unable to tighten their belts.

This would project new effects outward. If New Zealand has a problem,

Australia won't be far behind. This won't have a massive effect on the

global economy, but it is not clear how many marginal effects the global

economy can absorb after Asia before buckling. Even the American economy

could not withstand too many dominos going down.

Current float is 5MM shares, but 28MM more ( currently ) restricted shares come on the market about Feb 15, which should crater the price - buy it on the dip then. That's my plan.

I believe it's a good company with 47 MM oz of silver reserve, low ( ~$2.00/oz ) production costs and an agressive exploration/expansion program in the works. And they actually make money!

Not for me, I am not ( yet ) convinced. We had these sucker rallies before and I need more established trend that one day spike. I'd like to see $US go down more than it did, as well as more stability in Asia than one day up- swing. If the trend has changed, we are in for a good rally and waiting on a sideline for a few days ( or weeks ) will be just a small price to pay for avoiding another disappointment ( and monetary loss ) . JMHO

Cyclist: I think you are right about the current gold rally. Gold/goldstocks are still in a intermediate term bear ( or just bottoming ) , and when they have gone up they tend to go up for about a month, and settle down for several months before the next rally attempt. Unfortunately we just had a rally attempt fail a few days ago, so all of this may be a premature flash in the pan as they say. Now - - silver I am not so sure. All depends on whether investors honestly believe an international lawsuit will smoke out all of the hidden stockpiled silver. I doubt any skilled international silver investors would believe that the silver corner was over, but then who said the market was always smart? Did I just miss my opportunity to jump into silver again? I don't know!

Indian Rupee against the US dollar over the last
5 years. Of course, this too can change in the
next two months, if the Rupee further
depreciates substantially, or gold does what
most people here are hoping for.

In gold terms, it is a clear gainer, since the
investors get their original gold, plus about 2
percent interest per year. Since a large part
of the investment came from gold that people
were going to hold anyway, they should have no
regrets.

The gold bonds were issued by India in 1993, as
a booster for its hard currency reserves, at a
time when they were low. It was vaguely similar
to the current mobilization of the citizens'
gold by S. Korea, although India's situation was
not desperate, and the minimum investment of
one Kg limited this to the affluent people.

When the gold bonds are redeemed in a couple
of months, I think it will be equivalent to a
sale of gold by Indian CB. Some of the gold
will be sold by the owners, while the rest might
reduce the amount they would otherwise buy.

The amount involved is not very large by global

standards- about a million ounces, I believe.

Whoa, Nellie on the gold bottom here folks. Seems each and every rally is a lifeline to desperate and drowning souls. The only drawback to drowning, is lack of air, the rest is actually quite comfortable. These friends deserve our support, and in some real sense, our compassion, but they do not deserve to be heard on their cries for a new bottom - we've heard all this before. We will need better than their voices to turn our heads. Look for another announcement of large gold sales and/or leasing to be announced soon. 1997 gold sales have not been completely accounted for yet. I am very near to becoming a buyer on gold, but not yet.

Silver is strong. Silver will fly again, and soon. A retest of the highs is a lock and I think the manipulators will run it to 6.80 - 7.00. They could run it much higher if it wasn't for the squllions of ounces of silver being hoarded throughout the world, some of which has been held 10 years or more. The high $6 range should shake a lot of that silver out. There is no way to estimate the amount of silver being held long term by private investors, but if we get close to $7, expect silver to start coming out of the woodwork. Downside risk it the obvious 5.40 and then 5.25 after that. I think it will hold. The gap was filled and the charts look rosy.

Platinum and palladium: Some of you will recall I called last June for palladium to rise above gold in price. It was an idle muse about seeing something we have never seen, but it is looking increasingly possible if not yet likely. Platinum will have to rise from here. The current problems in Asia seemed to have diverted funds or attention that would normally be directed at platinum. Platinum is $40 too low even now, and still has the potential to rise well beyond $500.

I have found this place to be the most exiting and informative spot on the web, with cartoon characters galore, with persons of unbelievable insight and knowledge, and some ( few ) of unimaginable stupidity. As gold climbs, I predict the mixture will get very much richer.

Note to LGB:

I think our investment philosophies are very much the same: Pragmatism.

Like location, location, location in real estate, it is fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals in precious metals that brought me here. The time has come, the bottom is in for silver, platinum, palladium, and now very likely in for gold.

Load up the truck !!

It’s official, the Lurker 777 contrarian indicator has a 100% tract record. I know now that I must short the gold market so all Goldbugs big and small can someday play together with the great golden Bull in the green pastures of money. Yes, I HAVE A DREAM.

A `Special' Delivery in W. Virginia

Postal Employees Cheat To Beat Rating System

By Bill McAllister

Washington Post Staff Writer

Saturday, January 10, 1998; Page A01

Since 1990, it has been one of the U.S. Postal Service's most

revered statistical measures - - the key index for how well the

agency delivers the mail. Every week, the accounting firm of

Price Waterhouse sends mail to selected households across the

country to determine how quickly individual post offices deliver

the mail.

But last month, postal officials discovered that West Virginia

postal employees had figured out a way to make themselves

look good: With inside information on where the test letters

were being sent, they organized an elaborate system to speed

the test letters to their destinations.

In this instance, no expense was spared to make sure the mail

got through - - the postal employees hired Kelly girls from a

temporary help firm to pick out the test letters from the bags of

incoming mail.

Their aim: to show postal service higher- ups in Washington that

West Virginia had one of the best mail systems in the nation.

That would entitle the West Virginians to good job ratings and

big bonuses. As improbable as the scheme was, postal officials

say it worked for months - - until recently.

This week, postal officials in Washington acknowledged that

11 postal supervisors - - including Appalachian District

Manager Diarmuid Dunne and Charleston Postmaster Rick

Esslinger - - have been suspended in what postal spokesmen

describe as the first suspected case of widespread cheating on

the U.S. Postal Service's external first- class measurement

system.

.........

http:///platinum.graph.html

At least the declining wedge worked for the gold rally. Hey this pattern recognition works!

.....now where did I put those charts?.......

Cherokanzai...that is too bad about the wrong way move. I liquidated my corn puts last week for a HEALTHY profit ( ohmy ) . I had been short since the EB/Eldo corn calls ( mid Oct ) . Eldo made it good on the way up...and I made it good on the way down. Now, I am on the outside looking in. good hunting indian friend...

I have always found that the more ya 'want it'....the worse it goes for you the OTHER way........damn markets!

away...to the charts hmmmmmmmmm...

Éßdrinkingojbythe15,000lbbarrels

oris...'tis my name...can't help it. It'll be my rally cry now...or to all my detractors....EB YOU!! ( smile ) .

Aye, and they looking for soem more PhD yuppies ( wet behind the years ) to solve the worlds problems........give me strength........

http://www.imf.org/external/np/adm/rec/recruit.htm

http://www.cnbceurope.com/redirect/redirect.exe?/video/naqwi.ram

Machf15

WASHINGTON ( MktNews ) - Reconsidering a debt management strategy more than five years old, U.S. Treasury

Department officials told Market News Service they may use the good fortune embodied in the favorable budget situation

and the lowest long- term interest rates in years as an opportunity to extend the maturity of the public debt.

Officials said the favorable budget outlook is now on the table, as the White House has acknowledged that the FY1998

budget is likely to have a deficit that is smaller than the $22.6 billion of the prior year.

In the recent past, the favorable budget situation was simply implied in the Treasury's financing plans, officials said, as

the administration strove for agreement on what to do with the money flowing in. But inaction on additional spending plans

leaves the Treasury with the option of paying down debt and choosing the maturity sectors where new issuance will be

concentrated.

Tax receipts for the first three months of FY1998 through December appear to be running more than 10% ahead of the

comparable year- ago period, the Treasury's cash projectionists said. While the December 31 cash balance came in at

$31.9 billion, about $3 billion under the $35 billion target that the Treasury announced on October 29, the difference is

viewed as minor.

Meanwhile, long- term market interest rates have fallen to their lowest levels in about 20 years as a result of flight to

safety during the Asia crisis. Debt service costs, budgeted at about 17% of Federal expenditures, could fall as a result.

The Treasury's market financing strategy that was put in place about five years ago said that the steep structure of the

yield curve - - at more than 350 basis points at times in 1994 - - implied interest savings if the Department issued relatively

more short debt. But market analysis officials note that the shape of the yield curve has changed in last three months as

long- term rates fall to historic lows. The advantage of issuing shorter debt has eroded significantly, officials said.

In the past, the Department has avoided making interest rate calls one official said. But the continuing declines in

rates are tempting, this official said. The Department has attempted to achieve interest rate savings in the more distant

past, via early redemptions and securities swaps. The history is there for more creative debt management in an

environment of declining rates, the official said.

So far in FY1998, the Treasury has paid down about $7 billion in bills ( excluding Cash Management Bills ) and has

raised about $3.5 billion new cash in coupons. Lower issuance should be expected in the future, officials said.

Market speculation that the Department might eliminate a long bond offering at the November refunding appears

premature in this view. Rather, Treasury pay- downs could continue to be centered in the Treasury bills and the

Department might choose to concentrate its issuance in certain sectors. The 2- year, 5- year and 10- year notes and the

30- year bonds are seen as most important, officials said.

There is Street interest in the shorter notes for hedging against corporate deals and in the 10- year for comparison

against other international bonds. The 30- year is fairly unique to the U.S., but officials remain proud that the U.S. is the

only country with markets deep enough to deal with a long- term benchmark issue.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1998_01/12/102000pf.htm

Look at the following gold envelope chart: Indicates ( to me ) that the bottom is probably about $273, as the outer envelope is turning up. Look for a low THIS WEEK and a strong rally into Feb. Then sell if you wish.

http://www.intersurf.com/~vor/gold.html

Spewmonger - I really like that - Can I use it sometime?.

Yes and we cant blame it all on Clinton - the fact that

he is so popular means that there are a lot of Americans

just like him.

It must be nice not to have been born in 1965.

For Oris -

I like betting on horses a lot. Its predicting the

future and you dont have to wait so long to see if

you're right or wrong - maybe one to three minutes.

I hunted when I was young - potting squirrels. Once

I hunted deer in upper NY State. No deer but a brown

bear stumbled across me and a buddy of mine while we

were warming ourselves by a fire we made and drinking

a bit- Guns were resting on a tree - bear was BIG.

We all stared at each other for what seemed a long time

then the bear took off through the bushes. Fast man

Fast - and he left a scent so strong that you could

follow it.

He went in a swamp with about 100 thickets in it.

We were not about to go into those thickets to get

him - Score bears zero - Disney zero - we left it

like that. So I toast the bears and the deer of the

forest. Long may they live.

From The Wall Street Journal ( July 3, 1976 )

Official Gold Sales Hit Gold

Sentiment is for lower gold prices. A dealer cites the planned series of bullion auctions by the International Monetary Fund as a continuing depressing factor over- hanging the market.

From The Wall Street Journal ( July 20, 1976 )

The Journal quotes one banker who says, I don't know where we go from here. I'd hate to say $90 an ounce, but I suppose even that is possible.

From Barron's ( July 22, 1976 )

Gold's Intrinsic Value Is $5.00 An Ounce

Thanks to the latest IMF dumping of the stuff ( gold ) , the great rush of '76 - - to unload - - took on the makings of an old- fashioned panic. but take heart, gold bugs! Dick Donnely, from his privileged perch in the Commodities Corner, assures us that the intrinsic value of the metal is at least $5.00 an ounce.

From Financial World ( Fall 1976 )

Gold Is Distinctly Out of Fashion

...Gold, that fair- weathered friend, is distinctly out of fashion. Even to bring out the subject is to lay oneself open to sneers.

From The Economist ( September 11, 1976 )

There seems to be little to stop the price of gold going below $100 an ounce.

From Business Week ( September 13, 1976 )

Gold To Be Demonetarized

With gold down to $106.60, $3.40 from the low, Business Week said, The new low for gold in an indication that the central banks of the world, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the West German Bundesbank. are determined to press on with their plans to demonetarize gold regardless of what that does to its price.

From Money Magazine ( December, 1976 )

Gold's Move From $103 to $140 Is Not The Beginning of a Bull Market

The rebound in the gold price from the low of $103 per ounce in August to around $140 by mid- November probably isn't the beginning of another sustained boost because neither runaway inflation nor recession are immediate global threats. That's the view of gold watchers who aren't 'die- hard' gold bugs.

......And then gold went to $850 per ounce by January 1980.

& the pale rider as examples of what's in store for us, he makes Puetz's postings appear to be almost pollyanish in comparison.

short term lease rate rose abruptly yesterday

What does this mean

BUY THE DIPS.

away

Éß

The Economist is what LGB would write IF he had taste,

class, style, and could spell. In other words, it's well

presented crap ( imho of course ) .

But the last four pages are good.

The only value in the Economist Magazine lies in the 4

pages of fine print at the rear of the Magazine which contain

economic information. Sometimes they also have good book

reviews. Otherwise the magazine is trendy touchy feelie

crap dressed up in glib writing.

The Economist lists Japanese reserves as of last october at 227

billion excluding gold

I have a beautiful Golden Retreiver named Elektra,

along with a Ridgeback, and a stray hunter named

Benjimin that we brought from Europe who is now blind.

Elektra is the dog equivalent of Sharon Stone. They are

marvellous very personable dogs. I know you must miss

Lester.

The silver universe is all warehouse stocks now. Worldwide, lots- o- silver is here and thereabouts but the playful demi- gods will have their day. If COMEX stocks begin to rise, its all over for silver - for now……conversely, static or lower stocks will propel silver to newer lofty perches. A brutal dollar drop in the midst of the strongest rouge silver run in three years, has left the longs battered and anemic and the wretched surviving sodomites clinging to the rails of the last train out of this station for a long while. Silliest Primero: tall tales of litigations over manipulations of the most purely manipulated market on earth. Merrill started this story and Merrill was short…… a lot. The fix is in already - one way or the other. With sober, cynical eyes should silver be seen, and the coattails, while stout, will not be long and the opportunity to grab on will be briefer than the chance to chase. Either path it follows, its name will be spelled in COMEX stocks

Gold/silver ratio now 52 - we are in an open area

for added increase.

Gold has prior lows in currencies at about 502 dm,

405 sf, 171 pounds, 36,500 yen - We are only a shade

above those levels. ie 275,276.1,274.9,277.8. We are

entering the ZONE.

Now, you step on Plat tomorrow like a good broker dude. It won't need your help but give it a good goose anyway.....fer me.

I could not venture a guess for the KPY because the list of potentials is waaaay too long.

away...to be in good company

Éßlushing

I understand you Oris. You're just being nice to

K so you can coax him back and have him for lunch.

Im glad you spared ( missed ) that deer - too much

meat is bad for you and deer are beautiful. But you

can make an exception in K's case.

LGB would not be good to eat. If meat came from near

head it would be too fatty.