Jan 80 $675 to Jun 82 $315 29 mo. -49%

Feb 83 $492 to Feb 85 $299 25 mo. -39%

Jan 88 $477 to Sep 89 $362 21 mo. -24%

Feb 90 $417 to Jan 93 $329 35 mo. -21%

Feb 96 $400 to Jan 98 $281 24 mo. -30% still going?

Earl - Yes, it does seem reliable. I finally stumbled on this method just before the last rally started. It helped me decide to exit all gold positions close to the peak. I must admit, its nice to be sitting out one of these declines, for a change. My only worry is that other factors such as a shortage of the physical will cause gold to diverge from the currencies and I will miss out on the start of the major turn around. For this reason I am looking into the feasibility of shorting the appropriate currencies at the same time I buy back into gold. This should give me an effective hedge against further weakening of the currencies, but will allow me to participate in rallies due to other gold-related factors.

Thanks for the opporunity to participate.

Yes, I pulled the rest of my money still residing in gold mutual fund money and put it back into that damned evil stock fund.

Yes, I believe that Dow will run up to around 8,300 before it will slide through the correction.

Yes, I believe that gold will have its run but, as many have already pointed out, not before the confidence in US$ evaporates and this will take some time.

No, I don’t believe that we’ll see a market crash which would wipe out all paper gains in one day and I hope I will be able to move my money back to PM investments to ride it up.

Why do I believe that I can do it? Because I am getting a good, diverse education about what is happening in markets from all Kitco participants. This makes me better that the average investor who does not have a clue.

Sorry guys, there are two things you need to have to participate in any rally: 1 - knowledge to know when it begins ( to get in early ) , and 2 - have some money left ( to be able participate ) .

I am just a small peanut, and if I did not do what I did, I would not meet the requirement # 2.

So, forgive me Father - I have sinned, in what I have done, and in what I have failed to do .....

It does not matter if some of his ideas sound totally off the wall. These information gatherers who scan LL's reports have other sources to confirm or deny the Larouche information. I gather LL is now very popular in SEAsia, in part because he does not sing the company line.

BTW, LGB, I heard that the second Arianne V didn't blow up. Good work, but try to get it fully into orbit next time. ;- )

-- in equity and real estate, especially -- that have held

the potential to be a virulently negative force in the

economy. I emphasize rapid declines because, in most

circumstances, slowly deflating asset prices probably can

be absorbed without the marked economic disruptions

that frequently accompany sharp corrections. The severe

economic contraction of the early 1930s, and the

associated persistent declines in product prices, could

probably not have occurred apart from the steep asset

price deflation that started in 1929.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980106/verbatim/verbatim1.html

I think a more important question than how much the South Korean people are willing to sell to help out their country, is how much is still hoarded.

I wonder -- just how many Americans would sell their gold to the American government if we had the same kind of currency crisis as the one in South Korea. If gold is really as worthless as Karlito99 and LGB are saying, why are the gold collector coins in such demand?

What we really are having as several very astute Kitcoites are saying, is that the dollar is appreciating as one of the last viable paper/electronic currencies. Since gold is commonly priced in dollars, of course it must go down as the dollar goes up.

The price of worthless gold has skyrocketed in nearly a dozen countries in the last few months. We will have our gold rally, we just need to be patient. I certainly hope it is a little one, and not to $3000 or $8000 in the next two years. I would be happy with a little rise to $400/oz this year, as I would easily double my money in gold stocks. Did in 1993. A rise to $3000-8000 this year would imply the total collapse of the world's financial system, and none of us want that.

Oh LGB - you all make such a contribution - where would we be

without you, sweetie

Oh LGB - you are SO cute and SMART too. But that Karlita - she's

nothing but a pretty face.

By the way, the long term cycles suggest gold in the $2000 range about the time we baby boomers retire and Social security goes belly up. That would be about 2010-2015.

I really think the two of you make the cutest

couple. Its wonderful when two people FIND each

other.

There’s an old story about Mr. Rockefeller in the late 1920’s. When his shoe-shine fellow started asking his opinion on particular stocks, Rockefeller knew that the market was over-sold, and it was time to get out. I think of this story every time I see an ad for Investment Services or Mutual Funds in places such as television, home decorating or cooking magazines.

In the past year, I have worked with four of the largest companies in the USA to assess their plans for resolving Year 2000 computer and systems problems. The best plan had identified perhaps 10% of their problems. The next 24 months should be very interesting!!!

which may not be so awfully distant from your own: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/Aurophile123197.html

IMHO, the drop in the gold price coincides directly with the rise in the dollar in the last three days, back to Friday, when the bond rate closed at 5.85%. I suspected then that gold was in for a bad day today, but took no action, much to my regret. However, it seems to me that the announcement that the Korean debt problem is owed primarily to Japan and Europe redirected the flow of scared money into dollars ( instead of Europe or Japan ) , starting on Friday. If so, this gold dip will be short lived unless more cash flows into US treasuries lowering the bond rate, which is certainly possible. At this moment, gold is setting a new seventeen year spot low near 282+. The future is exceedingly difficult to judge under these conditions, but if all were well ( gold dropping for sure ) , the Dow would be going up, and it isn't.

My impression is that your swing chart indicates a bullish pattern, not bearish. Since our AG doesn't dare raise interest rates, he will probably try to talk down the market if it rallies. My guess is that he won't let it go much above the 1997 high.

I sold most of my gold stocks today for a 5% profit -- I think the best way is to handle gold/gold stocks as if they are still in a long-term bear market. Hence -- buy on dips and sell on short-intermediate term rallies. Gold/gold stocks sure performed poorly during the silver rally, supporting the premise of a continued bear market in gold.

Haven't decided what to do with the silver stocks -- stellar so far. Think the silver short squeeeze if over?

Freegold is on the spreadsheet. It has a lot of flexibily

in that it can cut production a little and reduce costs

a lot. I like others better - also I believe it will

be absorbed into vaal reefs as part of the anglo

super company - It should pay about a $0.50 dividend.

away...to break a mirror in your name

ÉßadJosstoTed

and then they fall to the sixers...... ( ugh ) .

away...to enjoy the day off with a Bond flick

Éß007gettinthechicks

http:///gold.graph.html ...someone in NY doesn't like gold this a.m. It looks very planned and well backed ( $ ) . How is my wink case comming along? And it's taking silver with it, although it didn't need much help......... ( ugh ) ...

And how great is it to sleep in and wake to the US$ ( toilet paper?! ) soaring against other currencies. It will break new highs Donald....I'm counting on it ( cha-ching! ) . And so is more than half of the world...where else to put your money eh, KIWI go usa...ohmy...damn yankee arrogant bastards..........what would Bondaracious do?

away...to observe the slaughter

Éßcoveredingreenbackstoday

hey TAR-BABY. Does that mean you are a black man/woman or an Oil barron I am slow at times.......pray tell, baby.

a point of confusion......why is it that everytime gold dets KICKED HARD someone, invariably, comes on kitco and says, looks like this will be a great buying opportunity..........typical. Oh well...dry powder all wet.

( 1 ) Money supply is reportedly going up at near-record rates.

( 2 ) Conventional wisdom dictates that increases in the money supply are a leading indicator of inflation. ( the lead time is open to debate )

( 3 ) Yet everyone seems to be predicting deflation in the near future, if not already begun, possibly quite severe.

What is the contravening factor here? Is it that AG in his wisdom is attempting to offset the deflation with the printing presses ( or electron-generators, as the case may be ) ? Or something else that I have failed to read in-between those lines of fine print? E-alms for the clueless, please.

For Haggis

Yes you are missing something

Not the first time either

Ive been an Aussie for 15 years !!

The frequency of my mentioning this fact is in direct proportion to the

Australian Cricket score.

http://www.he.net/~netking/display.htm ( Courtesy of CJS - allows you to post as well )

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/display.htm ( Courtesy of CJS -

allows you to post as well )

http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/discussion/display_short_new.cgi ( allows you to view all of 1998, but not post )

http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi ( Refresh, rather than press Submit, to read current posts. )

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html

http://www.afr.com.au/content/980105/world/world3.html

http://www.ragingbull.com

for those who don't have it.

This one looks like a wonderful bottom-fish to me at US$ 1.50/oz for their reserves, paying about a 6% dividend, with a spectacular ( 20 to 1 ) possible gain if gold ever gets back to US$500/oz and stays there. Any comments on this one?

Up and down, but going down.........

http://satellite.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/stox/strend.html

Aye, Haggis

G'Day,

A little difficult tracking down info on this company.

Their telephone number: 0892217300

fax number: 0892217355

The Board is a mix of Aussie/Malaysian/Singaporian.

Resources at Banockburn are 6.7 Mt @ 2.1g/t. They raised AU$14 million through placement.

Main play appears to be in Papua New Guinea, where they have entered negotiations wiith Rio Tinto and Goldfields Ltd concerning the Hidden Valley and Wau projects in Morobe Province - identifed resources of 5.6 Moz gold and 63.6 Moz silver.

Give them a call and ask for their annual report.

Aussie stock brokers can be sourced via:

http://www.minmet.com.au/links7.html

Aye, Haggis

If we get say a couple of days ABOVE 49 to one on the gold/silver ratio, we MAY get some action that all you SILVER fans might not approve of.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was

convincing the world he didn't exist.

The second greatest was when he taught Shane Warne

spin bowling.

Poor Shane - sold his soul to Lou Cypher.

The FDIC, having info that organized crime is operating and controlling facilities within the U.S. banking industry, will not move on it for fear of their lives.

It's much larger than the instance in your post. But, that instance supports the information I've received.

Thank you for participating.

I'm not certain if AG etal can engineer a soft landing for the US economy, or for the world for that matter. I think the US economy ( despite our debt problems ) is still pretty strong, and would survive most shocks, with the possible exception of a financial one caused by the implosion of some key Japanese bank.

I wonder -- was that deflation talk by AG an attempt to keep gold down -- since reports of CB gold sale news are now ineffective? He certainly will not want a major gold rally if there is any possbility of a US market crash.

I have James Flannagan's newletter. He is a cyclist, though his track record is not stellar. Did predict the gold bear, however. Flannagan's predictions are not clear to me -- given that he expected an October market crash which didn't. He still thinks the 60year cycle is the most relevant, but no longer gives specific dates.

By the way -- I think there is something funny about my ISP mail -- can't send anything except ascii. No graphics files,etc.