Merry Christmas, Seasons greetings & Happy Chanukah. I hope that covers everybody & you all prosper in 1998.

Meilleurs Voeux...Felices Fiestas...Frohe Festtage........etc, etc,.....that's all I know in other languages...so Season's Greetings ..............

AWAY....!!!!$$!! ho ho ho ~~~~~~~~~~ ;- ) }} ( santa grinnin' )

Éßcelebrating

hey Ted~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~merry-xmas dude.....go heavy on the nog...ohmy!

Just wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Happy Kwanza, and a Blessed and Holy Ramadan.

I really do appreciate your posts -- hope you don't mind the questions. Do you know werner? Precious metal miner too, I think. Hope we as a group didn't run him off. Most of us kitcoites are long term investor types, not options traders. Few real miners/geologists except you and a few others. Gold bugs are a strange but interesting group aren't they?

The URL is http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html

The $A Gold chart lead indicator has worked perfectly again, with the $A Gold P&F chart enjoying its best upmove in two years. The base formation on this chart is excellent, much better than the P&F chart of $US Gold.

$US Gold has now been below $US 300 for a month, its longest sojourn below that level since it first broke above it in July 1979. By way of comparison, in 1982, Gold spent one day below $US 300 - in 1985, it spent about three weeks below that level.

Also, in both 1982 and 1985, there were explosive upmoves which brought Gold back above $US 300 -and kept it there. So far this time, Gold has been rising gradually, on small volume and on persistently lessening open interest.

Obviously, Gold is going to have to get back above the $US 300 level and stay there for this move to have the potential to be the start of something BIG. I would go further. If Gold turns down below $US 300, it would be bad news. $US Gold hasn't done that in almost 20 years.

Personally, I am treating the gap between $US 280 and $US 300 as a potential trading range. I can only reiterate here what I say on my Gold commentary page http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html Gold is a POLITICAL metal.

I have seen only one legitimate buy signal on $US Gold since the beginning of 1996. that was in late September, when it climbed into the high $US 330s. That move pushed the P&F chart ABOVE its downtrend. It didn't stay there and the buy signal was aborted. This may be the start of the big move,but there is no confirmation of that yet.

That's all from me, it is Christmas Day here, after all. Merry Christmas to all, and especially to Bart, who makes this whole site possible.

The $A Gold chart lead indicator has worked perfectly again, with the $A Gold P&F chart enjoying its best upmove in two years. The base formation on this chart is excellent, much better than the P&F chart of $US Gold. The chart which shows when the $A signal was originally given ( on Dec. 16 ) is at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold1.html

$US Gold has now been below $US 300 for a month, its longest sojourn below that level since it first broke above it in July 1979. By way of comparison, in 1982, Gold spent one day below $US 300 - in 1985, it spent about three weeks below that level.

Also, in both 1982 and 1985, there were explosive upmoves which brought

Gold back above $US 300 -and kept it there. So far this time, Gold has been rising gradually, on small volume and on persistently lessening open interest.

Obviously, Gold is going to have to get back above the $US 300 level and stay there for this move to have the potential to be the start of something BIG. I would go further. If Gold turns down below $US 300, it would be bad news. $US Gold hasn't done that in almost 20 years.

Personally, I am treating the gap between $US 280 and $US 300 as a potential trading range. I can only reiterate here what I say on my Gold commentary page http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html Gold is a POLITICAL metal. I have seen only one legitimate buy signal on $US Gold since the beginning of 1996. that was in late September, when it climbed into the high $US 330s. That move pushed the P&F chart ABOVE its downtrend. It didn't stay there and the buy signal was aborted. This may be the start of the big move, but there is no confirmation of that yet.

That's all from me, it is Christmas Day here, after all. Merry Christmas to all, and especially to Bart, who makes this whole site possible.

If you have information available that would help me in forming my own opinion, I would very much appreciate your response either by post to this board or e-mail. My address is ISURE@aol.com. I am seriously considering increasing my position, and would like to know why you feel so negative on BEMA. Thanks.

P.S. I love the Maine coast. However, too far from the exended family, too liberal, and too many taxes. ( Might seem down right conservative to you, coming from Cape Breton ) . Wish we had some of that low-bank granite coastline out here, with the deep fiords that discourage traffic. Nothing but sandy bluffs that have a tendency to slide when they get soggy. Yes there are the San Juans, but these are quite touristy, and anything but cheap. Not your style, and probably not mine.

Merry XMas!

By the way -- where can I get access to historical Canadian gold stock prices? The FT index of gold and silver stocks can be traced back to the great depression -- but so far all I have been able to to is copy microfiches of monthly prices at the Toronto public library. Daily prices must be available somewhere!

Channels comment: I'm not sure that channels really have meaning in this trading environment, but here goes.

Silver: Wow! I thought it was somewhat unrealistic to define a channel with a 130% per year upward slope. But silver has surged to the top of this channel. May blow the top off. And except for this last Christmas spike, the movement has been slow and strong. Not similar to the quick movements of platinum and palladium when they blew through the tops of their respective channels due to metal shortages. Looks like the momentum is strong.

Platinum: Has recovered back to the midpoint of the downward channel it was in previously. I haven't predicted that this upward move is the beginning of a new upward trend. The Yen is still weak, and demand could be weak due to the instability in Japan.

Palladium: Also has rallied back to the mid-point of the channel. It doesn't look particularly strong.

Gold: Yes gold! The steady upward movement seems to be following the trend line I defined last week. It certainly has broken out of the steep downward channel with conviction. Ironically, the reason I drew this upward trendline so early is because the Asian currencies had strengthened vs. the US$. I saw this as a good sign. However, this week the Asian currencies lost all they had gained last week and then some. This is extremely bearish for gold. With the rally in gold, the world gold price is now above its level at the beginning of 1996. For the last two years, whenever it was at or near this level, it soon dropped back. So unless something has dramatically changed, either the Asian currencies must rally soon, or gold will drop back to new lows. I'll post the Gold vs. Currencies chart next.

My question is this: Are there enough pure silver plays out there to keep the lid on silver prices, or must the silver be mined with the lead/ copper/zinc? That would be quite expensive I would think when there is no demand for the other metals! Is this part of the key behind the silver corner?

Haggis -- AuProducer? Others?

Merry Christmas! Signing off for now!

A cyclist by the name of P.R. Sarkar made some historical observations that have some relevance. He spotted four types of dominance in human behavior, which I need to learn about as well. Maybe Cyclist can help:

1. Warriors -- Stamina, courageous, enjoy risk, solve problems by coercion. Maintain law and order.

2. Intellectuals -- Develop mental skills, and solve problems by reasoning. Deveop progressive philosophies

3. Acquisitor -- strive for wealth and comfort. Money is the cure all.

Acquisitors manage the economy.

4. Labourers -- Those who actually do the work. Less driven than the other three -- more likely to be expoited than the others for various reasons.

My guess is that the acquisitors are still in power. P.R. Sarkar says something very interesting, clearly written before our current times:

The cycle goes like this -- The warriors gradually relinquish their power to the intellectuals, who finally relinquish it to the acquisitors. A social revolution occurs when a large majority of the population is reduced to poverty at the end of the reign of the acquisitors, and the age of the laborer begins the cycle again.

My comment is the following: It is clear to me where we are in this ( overly simplified ) cycle. What is now happening is not what we think -- we are not moving forward toward the wealth of the great society that some of our leaders have talked about in the US, but away from it. The US middle class has to work harder and harder each year just to keep up, and our wealth is being sucked away ( for whatever reason ) to the hands of the few, despite what our leaders are telling us. The instability of our cultural system is reflected by the hardship placed on the average member of that cultural system.

I think tolerant1 is alluding to this fundamental problem of human nature -- this cycle must be broken for the human race to advance. We can no longer tolerate this kind of exploitation of humans, regardless of the ideology or the type of exploiter -- be it big government or big business or big religion. I'm sure there are other exploiters that I have missed.

I would also like to add a few words to our discussion last night about where the US may go in coming years. It perplexes me that some of you may treat my view of the US using historical parallels with other powerful nations in the past as US bashing. That would be a total misunderstanding of my views. After all, I made this country my home by my own choice and while I made many mistakes in my life, I believe that my choice was a good one.

At the same time, it is my strong belief that any country and nation is a living organism, system which goes through the lifecycle just like any other systems. To identify parallels and similarities with other countries in the past is very useful. We made the biggest mistakes when we refuse to learn from the past, thinking that we are invincible, that we don’t need to change, that we can continue forever our prosperity without making adjustments to how we operate. It is part of life that we grow older, go to the top and eventually slide back, be replaced by new generation. There is nothing wrong with that, and if we adjust our behavior there is even a good chance that if we loose our dominance we can come back ( and maybe even stronger than we were before )

Unfortunately, this is not possible if we do not recognize that this is a part of natural cycle, close our eyes and behave like there is nobody who can take our position ( we are the best and will stay that way forever ) .

Many of you indicated that there are countries which may become superpowers of tomorrow. Many of you brush this idea as ridiculous saying who? China? Russia? Impossible!! ) Well, go back to history again. Every nation which grew to a superpower role were originally treated by the existing powers as barbarian, uncivilized, underdeveloped, there is no chance they would defeat us. However, over and over they were wrong and impossible happened.

No I am not bashing the US, I just think that the US as a superpower will be replaced and it is just a matter of time and if we do not adjust a behavior of our system in the US, and behavior toward the rest of world, it may be sooner than we would like.

Again, may we all have a peacefull holiday and coming year.

take care - Miro

Instead we have had a manipulated market ( with their remoras riding along - EB, LGB, Karlito99 ) , those in power unwilling to pay for their less-than-godlike behaviour and performance, have prevented the small corections ( and their losses ) from being realized. The house of cards they have built on a foundation of lies, painted with promises they can't deliver on, and mortared with the savings of citizens world-wide must collapse. They, the manipulators, the politicians, seldom suffer - no doubt they'll be off in the Bahamas with young boys, sipping chilled wine and snorting cocaine, while the common people in Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Phillipines, Mexico, Canada, and US suffer collapsing economies, loss of retirement savings and degraded standards of living.

After it's over in a few years, the manipulators will come crawling back, all smiles, and begin the scam again. A very Merry Christmas to you, Avalon.

Come to think of it, I don't think I did a real good job putting this in to words...

I understand your caution about this recent rally, but I disagree because of several indications:

1. Long term US bond rate has dropped as low as 5.85 and then leveled off for several days at 5.90%. In the previous 6 months, the rate kept dropping in fake rallies and eventually took gold back down with it. Without another crisis creating flight to the dollar or Fed intervention, the bond has peaked.

2. Almost every gold stock I watch has moved up substantially from its recent low and all show tendencies to move up instead of down.

3. XAU and stocks are moving slowly and steadily, which provides lots of time for sellers to sell and buyers to buy. They are still moving up, telling me there are more convinced buyers.

4. London gold is responding, today up $4.20. Jberg gold index up very nice this week. These are not overly-influenced by Comex trading and in the past fell back quickly. This time they are leading the pack, indicating the demand is international, not just another short covering on the Comex.

5. The rand is leveling against the dollar, and the UK pound and Dmark both are going up against the dollar. With major currencies, only the yen is losing. The dollar is losing its lead position, I believe because the Fed is pouring cash into the bond market, adding liquidity, and indirectly diluting the dollar.

6. These are all short term trends, and can reverse, but it would take another major new policy decision or crisis. Therefore I think the weaking dollar and increasing metal price trends will continue for awhile.

... Merry Christmas to everyone. Friday should be an eventful day.

New Zealand would be a thought, but in the scenerio of actually needing gold to flee ( like in the destruction of Jerusalem in the 1st century AD or the Nazi holocaust or the Pol Pot regime or the Rwanda massacres ) well if the US ever got to that point, chances are some big unfriendly Pacific Rim country would bulldoze NZ and convert it to a brothel and storage shed. Ditto for Australia. Its a large open country which could be repopulated easily by a determined and relatively ill armed army of Asian ( Chinese? ) immigrants. Both countries look really good on the surface, have nice people and good social structure, but appear lack the hardnosed belligerant street fighting savvy which could protect them if somebody tried to invade.

South America, particularly Peru or Argentina comes to mind, but for the Sindero Luminoso, still biding its time in the mountains. And neither country really has the resources to roll out the welcome mat for fleeing Americans.

The asteroid belt maybe?

Individuals that confront challenges, disabilities and disadvantages awaken each day with a sense of worth, becoming more valuable to themselves and society as a whole.

I do not pretend to be a master of the issues, nor do I believe that I alone have the collective wisdom and foresight to make responsible decisions that will effect our lives as well as generations of the unborn yet to come. We all need to actively participate in the decisions pertaining to the world we live in and share.

Now is the time to act, to help reshape common thought and let peace, tranquillity, wisdom and spirituality guide all of us as we enter an era when humankind can truly appreciate the integrity of creation.

The entire range of inter-cultural and international affairs is at an unprecedented point in human history. There is no question that as we hurtle towards the dawn of the 21st century a miraculous window of opportunity is opening. A new age renaissance, wherein all citizens of the world will come to truly understand their inter-dependence upon one another.

Business as usual is no longer the standard fare on the global plate, new methods, a new form of understanding and a true desire to communicate are quickly altering the self-imposed myths that have held back humanity from moving forward into the sun lit river known as the future.

Instead of acting like children that shy away from the dark, let us move together, step by step, hand in hand, into a world which is illuminated by sensitivity, intellect and compassion. Let the global populace embrace a universal sense of community through the individual gift that each member of humanity brings into the world.

We must strive for a world where there is freedom to access and access to freedom. A world in which people realize that communication and teamwork are essential for all of us to live in community.

We have the tools, let each of us learn how to put them to work.

Tolerant forever

Thanks so much for the encouraging remarks and for the information on Bema. I too have a substantial interest in this company. It is not easy to find out a great deal about Bema's internal affairs. I will now be adding more BGO to my portfolio as soon as ( or if ) the price declines below $2.

Hope you and yours enjoy a safe and happy holiday.

Thanks so much for the encouraging remarks and for the information on Bema. I too have a substantial interest in this company. It is not easy to find out a great deal about Bema's internal affairs. I will now be adding more BGO to my portfolio as soon as ( or if ) the price declines below $2.

Hope you and yours enjoy a safe and happy holiday.

123

Please keep in mind that this year is especially bad for colds and flu -- if you let your emotions get the best of you, you will get sick, and then you cannot help anyone, least of all yourself. Anyway, we don't really want to set up a collection for your legal defense ( grin thingy, as Donald would say )

I think the upsurge in our economy just came at the moment balancing the budget was beginning to be a hot topic of discussion. Too bad it faded. I wonder what will happen the next time the American people feel like rocking the boat and refuse to pay more taxes! Turmoil at the top at the very least!

Merry Christmas!

My take on how high gold goes this time has to do with how much inflation we have had since the authorities last gave up on pushing gold down. That will be the lower limit ( about $600/oz at the most conservative ) . The world deflationary crisis and the recent dollar flood will add to the gold price rise. Adding a fear factor, $1000/oz within a few years is quite possible.

Using what little I have learned about inflationary cycles, real inflation in the US may wait for the baby boomers to retire, and our deficit to snowball. Around 2010-2015 gold in the many thousands of dollars an ounce is a real possibility. Mike Sheller made similar conclusions, coming from a different perspective, and I think so did some others.

I wonder what Cyclist would say. Might get an interesting response!!!

Please take care and stay healthy -- too many viruses going around this year! Best of Holiday wishes to your family!

I'm impressed -- I'm nursing a cold, as well as my wife - who is on amantidine for the flu -- and you're posting up a snow storm! Amantidine was approved by the FDA for Parkinson's disease, I think, which means it can be used for viruses -- as originally intended if my memory is correct. Strange American world we live in where others have more ready access to modern medicines than we. I'm just happy we got the medicine.

I've just spent the last thirty minutes scrolling through last nights posts and this morning's early posts and there were several comments about what's right and what's wrong with America. Well, if anyone can stand a few more thoughts on the subject, I would like to throw in my two cents worth.

As an immigrant to the US and someone who has lived here for twenty five years, I probably have a broader view than many.I agree that there are a lot of things wrong with America, but I seem to recall saying the same thing about my native Australia. I have done a lot of reading about America and have had the good fortune to live in New York, Baltimore and now Texas as well as having the opportunity of travelling widely throughout the US. One of my favorite books is one called

The Glory and the Dream by William Manchester. This tome ( it runs 800 pages ) is a social history of the US from 1920 to 1970 and I recommend it to readers of all nationalities, because it provides an extremely interesting overview of the changes in the US between those dates, including the depression and WWII. If anyone thinks that the world is a bad place now, just try to imagine what it would have been like if America had NOT won the cold war.

It's like Winston Churchill once said; Capitalism is the very worst system ever devised by man, except for all the others.

I don't know how this financial thing is going to play out ( there are may who post here who have vastly more experience with gold and trading )

but I think that it would be unwise to underestimate the energy, inventiveness and general good nature of the American people.

goo

For Steve - Unclear to me how the Intelligence Digest overlooked the

almost cetain bloody revolution coming soon to South Africa. These guys are not doing their honework. Only joking steve - good info.

for Boris Thanks for the info.

for all - the certain indicator that gold short covering has begun

lies in the gold silver ratio - 47 to one could be the floor ( I hope so )

- if gold moves up againt SILVER - there will be an explosion heard round the world - watch the ratio.

Gold broke out of its downtrend against stirling and the dmark

several days ago Its now about 522 dm and broke its channel arould

512 - 515 - It has been moving up in all currencies for about a week. WATCH THE GOLD SILVER RATIO. It may tell you if this is the start of a gold bull or a nice counter trend rally.Good luck

Lastly, I would like to thank Bart Kitner for putting up with us long enough to see another antipodean Christmas eve!

Has everyone seen what Santa has just brought us on Bart's 24 hour gold/silver site tonight?

Good to see that relative peace has returned to Kitco -- especially important to me since we are so close to the holidays!

I must say -- I don't understand all of your comments on Kitco -- but they are refreshing!

Good on yer, Nick

For Hatt - I have been thinking the same -

All the funds that are short trying to cover between Christmas and

New Years into a thin market that will be closed intermittently.

Mayhem fear panic madness terror - Couldnt happen to nicer guys.

A new breed of mongoloid subterrainnean has surfaced - These guys

like to argue about whether or not asians are buying gold - which I

dont know how to prove one way or the other. I offer this

1. ** people tend to buy things when they go UP not DOWN until they

reach concensus that the thing has gone UP TOO FAR - viz - US

stockmarket. I think Asians really are buying gold but neither I nor anyone else can prove it.

2. ** During the period of gold's decline, It was generally assumed that

asians WERE buying gold - BUT gold went down anyway.

Thus I dont give a happy ***** if asians are buying gold are not

and I think being concerned about it is a stupid waste of time. Gold

is going up - relax - lets dont psyche ourselves out - enjoy - lets

talk about the movies or baseball or cricket. One of the hardest

times to avoid screwing yourself is when the market is going in your

favor. I think the REAL problem is that sods that WRITE THESE POSTS

didnt buy gold and they are envious about it and wish to shake us

out of our position - up their kilts!

- World economies are closely interconnected ( e.g., impact of Asia crisis on the rest of the world economies )

- Most of the business transactions and information exchange is done through computer networks or somehow utilize computer technology.

- Failure of this infrastructure supporting worldwide economic activities would definitely slow down these activities ( sometimes REALLY slow down )

- I am not excited about progress in solving Y2K problem in the USA.

- Other countries are way behind the US in solving this problem ( from information I receive from my colleagues in different countries ) .

- You may be ready but if your business partner is not ( be it a supplier or buyer ) your business will suffer too.

- Your government may be ready ( ha, ha, ha ) , but if other countries are not your country is still in trouble.

- Failure of one bank brings unrest to financial markets, failure of few ( or incorrect processing of financial transaction ) banks makes financial markets tremble.

I was not interested in gold before I started dealing with Y2K issue. Once I’ve got deeply involved with Y2K, I was turning to investment in gold following the old rule that when there is a problem gold will shine. Well, now some of the poster try to tell me it’s not true anymore. It may have changed, however, while I am loosing some money, I believe that I make it back before this Y2K thing is over. Most of the other investments depends much more on properly functioning computers ;- )

BTW, how come that Asia stock markets are tanking but gold keeps going out ( mind you that the US and London market are still closed ) Oh well looks like some know it all were wrong ;- )

Yes, That is why we [you & I : ) ] are @ this site.

Yet, I expect when push comes to shove, as to the best way to resolve the issue of competing groups. I doubt we will agree. I believe these competing groups are designed by corporate interests ( central bankers ) to cause the disagreement between citizen's. Re: I can hire half the working class to kill the other half.

I understand that in 1986 USofA 5,000,000 welfare industry workers were employed to care for 50,000,000 welfare recipients. ( all inclusive welfare ie social safety net ) Canada is 32,000,000 people!

In addition, I believe that Corporate Welfare drains the wealth and spirit of a nation, not people welfare. *Balance*, and people's interests first, are the order of the nation, not profit at any cost. Profit is a by-product, of good business.