Gee. What about the equity value I lost when East Asian markets turned south as some of these same banks began their various hedging operations in the region.

Maybe if I phoned Mr. Camdessus, he'd see that my losses would also be covered.

Wait. As a taxpaying U.S. citizen, that money he's handing-out is part mine anyways!

I'm getting confused. Something doesn't seem fair here.

If you owned an oilwell in your back yard and

noone could take control of it, then oil is the

best investment. But, most people use various

forms of western paper to trade oil and that

paper will burn in a currency fire. Make no

mistake, a currency fire is now in process and

it has much fuel remaining. Even Korea will

find out that oil is all that counts. Their paper

will die! Gold would have helped them in a

different world, but for now gold is in the

background as the IMF tries to add more

paper to this inferno. If one owns real gold

, it will be with ease to view the world currency

developments. They will be truly of biblical

proportions!

worldwide. It is important that this process of dollar backing

continue, as it is the only thing keeping this “digital currency”

alive! It is also important that all other currencies seek the US$ for

backing, as they would not survive on their own. Why would not

these countries just hold oil or gold for backing? Because oil is not

buried in their back yard and real gold would bankrupt them in a

minute. You see, a country can buy all the paper gold they want as

that gold

remains on deposit at the BIS controlled CBs. But, if they try to

buy real gold outside the LBMA system the price would explode

and the BIS would not come to rescue their currency. All real

bullion outside the system must remain available at production cost

prices ( in US$ ) for the cross trading of oil thru the LBMA. There

are only two threats to the world fiat currency system at present.

The oil states could stop buying US$ for oil and drop all paper gold

for real bullion. Or, the masses could buy up all the physical

supplies thereby breaking the OIL/GOLD/US$ bond.

The paper gold market controlled by the BIS/LBMA system is,

alone equal to more than all the gold in existence. This market

works like a hybrid currency using approximately twenty to forty

percent of all CB gold in leased form as backing. The paper behind

the lease is a form of CB/gold and is used as a “fractional reserve”

that has built this huge market. This system has worked and does

work well. You have but to look at the good value that is received

when dollar debt ( digital currency ) is purchased with oil. The

world works! But this system cannot continue. There is a limit to

how far gold can be inflated in quantity using “fractional reserve

leasing” as backing. The fatal flaw was found in the “forward sales”

of unmined gold. The whole system counted on the expansion of

cheap mining techniques to supply much more gold at a cheaper

price far into the future. This happened to a degree for a few years

but then just leveled off.

Now the LBMA continues to flood the market with paper gold as

if nothing has changed! But it has, we reached production cost!

That wasn’t suppose to happen until the mining industry had raised

supply many times what it is today.

To close:

Notice that we say “ they use oil to buy gold” and “they use oil to

buy dollars”. You should try to think in these terms as oil is the

real value here. Oil functions as the true gold for the modern

world. Indeed, it was only when the world started needing oil for

everything that gold was dropped as backing for the US$ and

replaced with oil!

The falling price of physical gold only hurts the mining industry

( and it’s stockholders ) and leveraged paper buyers. All others

benefit from a lower value of gold. Look now as even the western

public are buying coins. They help themselves even in the face

record Dow Jones.

Will the BIS try to settle this unbalanced market by destroying

LBMA? Or will they drive the CBs to lease another 20% in an

effort to inflate this “paper gold currency”. Just like the fiat dollar,

if inflated it loses value. This is not lost to the oil states.

Gold: By the end of last week, gold had broken out of the -15%/year downward-trending channel that had contained its price movement since the beginning of 1997. Since the beginning of October, gold has been in a tight channel that is steeply heading down at a rate of 80%/year! Hard to imagine the channel could get steeper. A small rally, still within this channel could take gold up to $290 ( if it happens soon ) . Otherwise, sideways or down. My first target will be to see gold break out of this channel to the upside. As of now, this is the trend, and it is vicious!

Platinum: With the quick drop this week, platinum has broken out of the -20%/year downward-trending channel that has contained its price movement for several months. Looking at the recent price movement, it is also now in a tight channel that is trending down at the same rate as gold, about -80%/year. I hate to say it, but this may get worse. The platinum/gold spread has been forming a pennant pattern going back to early June, with a base just under a spread of $80. This is approaching an apex in the next few weeks. It has to break one way or the other. To me it seems most likely that it will break downward, thus the price of platinum will start to approach that of gold again. Bad news for platinum longs if this happens ( including me! ) .

Palladium - Having reached the apex of its pennant pattern, it had to break one way or the other. As I predicted, it did finally break downward, following the downward trending line of resistance, which seems to define the top of a new downward-trending channel. Given the currency and financial problems in the far east, IMHO, palladium may finally join platinum and drop into a steep down channel.

Silver :- ) - Saving the best to last, silver has shattered the upward boundary of the steep up channel that has contained its movements for awhile. What now? If this is the result of a real shortage as we saw earlier in palladium and platinum, we might look at their action has an indication of what might happen to silver. These both broke out of their respective channels and continued up a distance roughly equal to the channel width, then dropped back down into the channel. I have drawn a dotted line a channel width above the silver channel. If silver gets up to this level, I will be tempted to short it. Until then I will just watch.

I would appreciate any comments relating to the above.

Developing Markets

SE Asia & S Korea

Covers Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam & S Korea

Dishoarding exceeded purchases by a net 15 tonnes during Q3'97. This was prompted largely by the 40% depreciation of the Thai Baht against the US$, which meant sharply higher gold prices in local currency terms.

There was some profit taking, but the bulk of the volume reflected distress sales. The fact that consumers were able to convert this gold back quickly into cash highlighted, once again, gold's traditional role as a store of value and asset of last resort.

LGB2 Quote from 20:27 Dec: 12, 1997

Gold's value has declined in those Asian countries, not risen,

G'Day from Kalgoorlie, Western Australia

I was informed yesterday, from a very reliable source, that Pegasus Gold Australia Pty Ltd are being placed in receivership. Does not look good from Pegasus Gold Inc USA, who are at risk of defaulting on a mere US$353 million. Not good.

Aye, Haggis

What you have to do on this web site is to filter the gloom and doom. The US may have a market crash, and it may have a serious massive inflation problem, but it may be many years from now, even though the crises in the world are very real. The gloom and doom you are getting here are the possibles. You have to filter this and choose the reals. This takes time -- but is exactly the same problem you would have in believing the distorted information in our news media. Hang in there, and you will learn what to believe, and when to act.

I agree 100% with your answer, but I am truly puzzled that you answered something that I have thought about but never posted about on Kitco! How did you do that?

Unfortunately when we went off what was left of the gold standard in 1972, and the dollar fell to its true value, no longer supported by CB gold sales -- the world had its worst currency crisis since the great depression era. All because the dollar had inflated.

We are living the same lie now -- and gold is now worth much less in dollars than most commodities, just like it was in 1976. If you still don't believe us, and you wish to believe the hype of the popular media, just sit back and watch! I doubt that gold will rise above $2000/oz until well after the millenium ( perhaps 2010 ) , but we will have nice 200%-300% profits in gold stocks before year 2000. The only problem now is guessing on the bottom ( very near ) , choosing gold stocks in companies that don't go belly up, and hoping that the world's financial system does not melt down. Gold coins/bullion were invented for the faint of heart that don't want to ride the gold bug Tsunami!

Have you noticed that pre-1933 gold coins are already going up in price? Hope you keep your powder dry, and join the rest of us in a wild ride -- which will probably begin in a few months. Right now there are countries in the world where the price of gold is going down, but their number seems to be decreasing daily. Won't be long before the US will be the last holdout in the competitive deflations that are sweeping the world like sharefin's Tsnuami. Then what? The dollar stays up all by itself as we flood the rest of the world with dollars? Eventually all those reserve, etc dollars will come home to roost.

Even if there is not an official gold standard, gold has an effect upon the stability of a currency. If S Korea had a stockpile of gold, their currency would not be falling like a brick. It would hold most of its value. I don't find it odd that during this time of turmoil, the currencies of US, UK, Germany, France, and the Swiss are high value currencies, and Australia and Canada are plummeting to new lows, along with all of Asia.

CJS1_A.. Keep up the history lesson. One question. What was happening before OCT '29.

IMVHO mine closures, demand from India are essentially irrelevant in this market. ABX going broke is the least of anyone's problems here. Just look at the monthly LBMA statistics. That has nothing to do with traditional gold market dynamics - not unless they merged with martian gold markets.

To enable Germany to meet its formal obligations, reparations had been financed by short-term borrowing, much of it from the United States. [South Korea alleged to be in trouble with short term debt repayments due by end 1997, with IMF refusing to bring forward emergency loans] Suddenly this could not go on...

The final blow fell when Austria's oldest bank, Credit-Anstalt was faced with losses which exceeded its entire capital [Can you spell Yamaichi]. After failing to get help from the French [US and Japan], the Austrians [Koreans] turned to London [the IMF]. So did the Germans. The Governor of the Bank of England, Montagu Norman came to the rescue of the Austrians with an advance of GB Pounds 4.5 million [Make that 60-odd billion $]. The French were furious and joined sterling's attackers, selling pounds with unconcealed vigour...[hmmm] The pound's gold parity was suspended on 21st September.

Excerpt from Into the Upwave, Robert Beckman, Milestone Publications, 1988, ISBN 1 85265 110 5

I seem to remember that before FDR confiscated gold the international value of the dollar, tied to a low price of gold, was too high, and other govts were devalueing their currencies. This was killing US exports, and too many imports eventually produced the tariff bill blamed for the depression. ( Hoot-Hawley? ) When the dollar was re-evaluated in gold, it repositioned the dollar with other currencies, but it was too late. By that time, all of the economies were messed up.

Does this sound familiar, as the dollar keeps going up.

The market action is similar. One thing I've noticed is that a major event triggering a market response enhances the lock step ( herd-flock-school ) response in the market. After that event, echoes in market action follow for some time following the event, based on the Fibonacci ( fractal ) series, described by that mysterious ratio -- 1.618 -- that is also found in the Pyramid of Giza, as well as in one of the Central American pyramids. If you have read Fischer's book titled Fibonacci Series and the Spiral Curve ( I think I have the name right ) , you will see that the 1.618 ratio can identify time and price changes, before ( underline before ) as well as after the big event. Fischer has gone far beyond conventional Elliot wave/Gann/Fibonacci analysis by the way.

I find this time reversal symmetry somewhat disturbing, despite that this is a common event in Physics analysis. There is one logical explanation of why this happens: that the forces that allowed the event to occur had built up a hidden synchrony before the event -- hence the precursor event -- which may not have been appreciated at the time for what it was. Any other explanation is too much for my little human brain, since it involves market precognition.

Given our October ping as sharefin calls it, the above comments may be especially relevant. Only problem is, I don't have a clue when the next market ping will be. However, the third ping may be more predictable.

I wonder -- just how much of what we do in this world is actually truly independent? Another thought -- I wonder what contrarian type gold bug birds do -- since they don't fly with the flock!

One last mind boggler -- Just last week I tried out a new method of time series analysis, called Daubuchet ( sp? ) Wavelet analysis on one year of daily Dow Jones data. This is light years more advanced than Fourier analysis, because the transforming algoritm uses little packets limited in time, rather than infinite fourier analysis, so the ends of the time series don't create errors in the analysis. What you get are the time periods over which the market is correlated. To my amazement, out came the Fibonacci series in days, out to several months of correlation! I think only one number was missing in the first 8. This is the first time I have ever seen a direct proof that the Fibonacci series ( and fractal analysis ) really applies to a real-life market situation! We really do move like a flock of birds, and the durations of our flocking are given in days by the Fibonacci series, just as those investment Guru's first told us years ago!

London gold down; Comex gold down; Jberg index down; most S African gold stocks down all day.

Many other US stocks down. The XAU was up mostly due to ABX. For most of the day, PDG and BMG were down, and came up at the close.

It appears that funds are buying the obvious big mines, not the small. This is sometimes a good sign, but without a Jberg/London confirmation, the funds will stop after a day or two and XAU will come back down. Perhaps the buy-back promise by ABX has had an effect. In any case, I agree that we may be close to a buy unless gold rolls over again on Monday, taking XAU with it.

However, I do not believe gold is signaling deflation at this time. Very simply normal supply and demand dynamics are not the reason for the current gold price levels. If they were then gold would be signaling certain doom.

The current price levels are either due to monetary authorities driving down gold to present a deflationary picture in the face of huge surges in liquidity and/or due to hedge funds finding themselves in a pikle ( impending short squeeze in the physical metal ) and doing the only thing that seems to work at the moment ( keeping gold in a controlled downtrend ) until a miracle happens or gold reaches 0 ( which ever comes first ) .

TO ALL: Hope you bought your silver today. RJ--you are my hero.

I lived in Korea for about two years, while working on an industrial project in Pusan. Their society is incredibly stable. Extremely low rates of divorce, crime, illegal drugs, and unwed births. Very high emphasis on family values and education. These protesters portrayed by the US media represent an extremely small percentage of Koreans.

Here’s an analogy. If a family has a hard-working automobile mechanic as the bread-winner, and his wife maxes-out the credit cards, eventually the family will recover, no matter how bad the economy gets. Why? There is always work for a good mechanic. ( Okay, call the analogy police and turn me in... )

One interesting fact: arranged marriages are standard for about 95% of Koreans. They pay private detectives thousands of dollars to investigate the families of prospective spouses. This forces the families to take care of their own. If Uncle Joe was arrested for stealing a loaf of bread twenty years ago, your daughter may have to marry a janitor instead of a doctor!

Perhaps these banks have been selling their gold...

Heard these?- UBS = U Been Sacked, SBC = Sacked before Christmas.

By the way, John Disney__A, I've had those spaced-out lines, it seems some new lines are different to others especially when pasting. Probably a CR or LF. The edit box does its own new line when you type up to the end, which means to fix the problem you have to go through deleting every end of line, then putting back the character or space you just deleted. A case for a nice Perl script to tidy up the text, I would think.

I swear - I write first in notepad - then I paste with cntl-v.

then I preview before I send - In preview - it is singled spaced.

then hoopla - I send - and then I look and to my dismay - Ive been

DOUBLED SPACED.

Evil forces are at work here.

My comment: I keep forgetting that the dollar trade volume is so high that there is no way that R. Rubin can push the dollar down if it wants to go up. As you all probably know, there is concern that there might be another tsunami of competitive devaluations if the dollar continues to rise. The consensus from this post below is that Japan will not try to push down the dollar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971212/economy_dollar_sched_1.html

http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/charts32s.exe?chart=Orange+Juice+Futures&month=Jan+%2798

away...to find Anita B.

Éßfreshsqueeszzed

http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1997q4/1997_12/971212.141432.steadyeee.htm

Excellent job, Sir Steady....now go over to the side of the room with all the people who have 'snatched the pebble'...with the Sheller's and the Cherokees....and that Cape Breton snot nose.....Irvine's and OZ/NZ's alike. Oh master..................uh huh.........

away...to sneak back to work......possibly.....

Éß-ro-sham-bo

thanks Tol1...duly noted

hey nick fan - We play the Rockets 2-nite.....it couldn't be more bleak.....go vanExcellent! where is gold.......? go gold

Gold does not rust or decay. It doesn't tarnish. Gold is hard to destroy. Even most acids can be spilled in it and not hurt it. Gold reflects light and is a good conductor of electricity.

Gold is, indeed, a miracle metal.

Reading the Papers - News you wont get in the US Press.

1. RSA just had a ppi index of 4.9% year on year - Lowest

since 1971 !!!!!

2. Economist Intelligence Unit survey reports RSA

offers the cheapest operating costs of any country

likely to attract significant foreign investment.

Ahead of Indonesia,Malasia,Hungary. Germany was the

most expensive and the US the second most expesive

of the 27 countries surveyed. Data was from the

first of the year - recent collapse of some asian

currencies could alter the rankings.

3. Anecdotal department - while shopping today bought

Canadian salmon for 3$US/kilo - seemed cheap to me

when I thought about it. Lovely stuff.

ANYONE!? Need some info....if you can....thanks in advance.

away

Éßelooking into gold stockies

morning ( afternoon ) to Mr. Sheller ;- ) thanks for the new article. It is good. you da man...

More info . The s deep deposit is 199000 tons at

9.5 g/ton - which I make to be 59mill oz. MJ say the

project to develop it is estimated at 1.1 billion rand

or 225 mill US - ie 225mill$/59= $4 per oz.

Now Take Lihir = this deposit is 15 mill oz but

rather than being just out of joberg with wall to wall

black miners looking for a job, this deposit is a bit

east of woop woop in the New Ireland province of

Papua new guinea. I would guess that a short walk

from camp and you just might end up as someone's lunch.

713 mill us has been spent to date and at least 800

mill is fully committed. So we are looking at

800 mil/15 = 53$/oz in capital cost up front.

Maybe this is the part of ABX costs that they dont

like to talk about.

It seems to me that this tension in precious metals prices can't continue much longer, and gold must either rally rather explosively, or the price of silver must come down.

I'm betting on the former.

My guess is that once silver rallies through the psychologically important $6.00 level, traders who aren't normally drawn to precious metals will HAVE TO sit up and take notice of a contradiction that is begging for resolution.

With fundamental forces seeming to favor both a rally in gold and sustained high silver prices, this seems to come as close to a no-brainer to me as one can possibly come, particularly when you factor in the attractive price of gold calls nowadays. But, of course, there are no guarantees. . .

Karlito 99 opened a pretty big can-o-worms. I bet he is sitting at home yukkin it up right now. I, personally, don't see gold at $100.00. But if it happens it will certainly be a BIG BUY!! OH MY!! Can you imagine selling a one OZ. Maple or Phil. at $100.00!? 3 for the price of one?!? Attention K-Mart shoppers! We have a blue light special in isle GOLD! No FU#&%N WAY!! sorry Tol1, I could only use gutter speak with this one. Excuuuuuuuuuuuuse Me! ( said in the best Steve Martin imitation )

go gold bugs!!! Tear him a NEW one.....aaaaarggghh mateys!!!!

away...to get to K-mart before opening

Éßuying the whole lot

Dear Mrs YEAR2000

It looks right when I preview and then whammo - I get double space.

I'll try to learn if you teach me, baby.

For Tolerant - here here - death to the IMF. I second that motion.

Why are the countries most at risk for economic crises the ones with little gold? Why do the countries with the highest standard of living the ones with the most gold? Would you rather live in Switzerland or Russia? You must not have heard the latest on the Euro bank is that it will have gold reserves, although details about who will keep the gold is not yet clear. For obvious reasons, Germany and France will refuse to let their CB gold out of the country.

In an ideal world where all national leaders could be trusted not to debase their currency you would be correct that an anchor in gold is not needed.

I rest my case. I am reassured that you post on this site. That can only mean one thing -- that at least you are not sure about what you are saying.

Dream on

It is

very

annoying

to read

your

posts

when

they

look

like

this.

Present ( last 5 years ) supply imbalance is due to CB dishording, has nothing whatsoever to do with valuation ( see my earlier post: Fool's Gold-When Central Banks Lose Their Lust For Gold, Gold Bugs Should Beware. That was an editorial run by the Economist in Jan 93 with gold at 330. Went straight to 405 in July.

Market fundementals, excluding CBs, are in great shape. When did you last see any free market product produced at less than the marginal cost of production for any length of time. You didn't. With current prices, production is already slowing. The longer the price stays around these levels, let alone falls further, the greater the attrition on the producers, the lower the supply, the greater the risks the CBs run.

Jan93 taught one or two CBs a lesson, the Dutch in particular. It is not the job of CBs to speculate in the long term.

Wes Areas South deep project will be at a final depth

of 2700 meters. Twin shafts commenced sinking in sept,

1995. Final depth and full production will be reached

in 2003. MJ states costs are 240$/oz - incusion of

Joel reduces to 226 $/oz by 2001. Big dough will be

needed for full realization - up to 200 mill $.

It is hard to compare cash costs between RSA

mines and NA mines. RSA mines cash cost include

everything but capital expenditure. They can be tied

directly to the p/l statement as in the excercise I

did on ABX. Barrick's cash costs dont seem to relate

to anything, and cannot be tied to their lousy

results. They say their cash costs are as low as 100

or 170 per oz but when you lump it all together it

comes out MUCH HIGHER.

I was unfair to abx in my prior diatribe. They took

a one off cost of some 385 mill $ in the 3rd quarter.

They say their revenue will hold 420$/oz through 2000

via hedging. So adding back the one -off cost of 385

mill means they should have made profits of $90/oz

with revenue hedged at 420. Says average costs are

330$/oz. This is in line with Western areas.

You ask what percentage of WA south deep could be

mined at a cash cost of below 100 $/oz - Id say zero

and Id say so what. If you look at a breakdown of

Abx production you see about half at 175$/oz

( betze-post-nevada ) and a quarter at 100$/oz ( meikle-nevada )

- BUT somehow through some strange transmogrification

their average costs are about 330$/oz when it hits the

p/l. Maybe the administrative cost of low cost mining

in far flung places on andean mountaintops is higher

than people think. Maybe its not as simple as going

a mile and a half deep in the ground just a short

drive from downtown joburg.

I believe that the AVERAGE south deep cost will

be under whatever barrick comes up with in the average

cost department.

I will make no furthur effort to explain abx. Buy

lots of it if it makes you feel warm and snugly -

OK by me. But pardon me if I dont join you.

btw

sorry Tol1...honest mistake. You two have some of the same style and elegance..........but gold is a commodity, like Platinum, imho. But then....I'm usually wrong at least twice in one day ;- ) .

away...to strive for perfection and achieve greatness...or fall on my face...bonk.

Éß

go platinum go silver go gold go to work

May his days be filled with joy and his nights filled with calm......ohmy!!!!! :- ) ) ) )

away...to buy diapers by the crate

Éßhappyforsteve&rowena

Tolerant1 - Were you the handle: 2weeks ( 2 ) ? YES? NO? ( circle one )

Ted - morning you ole dog.....my puta is still on the 2 day disabled list. I'll be damned if I can get a live one on the phones too. Once they got ya they think they can ignore ya'.....we shall see...

away

Éß

BREAKING STORIES:

Jakarta rattled over new health fears for Soeharto

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971213/pageone/pageone6.html

Jakarta's decayed ruling families hostage to crisis

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971213/world/world6.html

Shares slump on global angst

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971213/business/business5.html

Asia: the time is right, but proceed cautiously

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971213/business/business10.html

Red alert for Korea's banks - Korea is in DEEP TROUBLE NOW!

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971213/world/world1.html

ALSO - The latest from the Intelligence Digest:

US prepares for mass casualties in Korean war

The US has asked Japan to draw up contingency plans for receiving

120,000 casualties in the event of a new Korean war.

MIM ( Mt Isa Mines ) crashes to 18-year low as investors bail out

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971213/invest/invest1.html

Insurers refusing to cover Year 2000 Millenium Bug problems

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971213/invest/invest5.html

US locomotive on track for a long uphill ride - The Maverick

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971213/market/markets4.html

Too many eggs in an Asian basket case

No more Letters of Credit for Korean Manufacturers!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971213/market/markets5.html

IN REVIEW:

Crisis shoves Korea's giants to wall

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971211/world/world1.html

ASIAN BACKWASH HITS RUSSIA

http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557102.htm

ASIA'S NEXT CASUALTY? Bad banks could clobber China

http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557097.htm

Whistling past the graveyard in Asia

http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557052.htm

DEAR IMF: DON'T MAKE ASIA'S FLU WORSE

http://www.businessweek.com/1997/50/b3557152.htm

Rupiah now down 100% for the year

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971210/world/world1.html

Korean Won down by 10%. Down 70% for year.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971210/market/markets4.html

Clinton shifts strategy on nuclear war

http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971209/world/world8.html

Billion-dollar buyouts lead attack on bankruptcy

Korean Shipbuilding Group had 20 times debt to equity!

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971209/world/world1.html

Korean steel hits US & European production

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971208/market/markets11.html

The good, the bad and the ugly banks of Asia

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971204/world/world4.html

BOOKMARK Steve’s News Page:

( Courtesy of Colin Seymour )

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/blizard.htm

Rember the definition of inflation is MONEY SUPPLY not prices.

The definition of PRICE is demand.

More particularly can any of these reserves be mined at $50 to $100/oz. In comparison, according to Barrick's most recent studies, proven gold reserves at Pierina are around 6.5 million ounces and can be mined at production cost of between $50 and $100. What percentage of Western reserves can be mined at this cost?

Re ABX assets = Mining journal says = $9.63 per share. You are

close enough IMHO. But, I hate to see boyhood idols crumble - first

Peter Munk, next Superman, then Popeye the Sailor oh where will it

end. What have we started

Look shamus, we got some VERY SENSITIVE GUYS in dis area, know

whad I mean, and my advice to you is

- dont say nuttin about no peter munk

- dont ask no questions about no holocaust

- and dont mention da war.

Watch your back, gumshoe, ya seem like a straight up guy, see ya later

Look shamus, we got some VERY SENSITIVE GUYS in dis area, know

whad I mean, and my advice to you is

- dont say nuttin about no peter munk

- dont ask no questions about no holocaust

- and dont mention da war.

Watch your back, gumshoe, ya seem like a straight up guy, see ya later

1. Munk is not a loser and he is much more successful

than I am. Same goes for Bill Clinton. Im not talking

about Munk as you well know oh mighty snide and rude

one, im talking about mining investments. Didnt realize

Peter was a hero you worshipped - Maybe you'll outgrow

that one day.

2. Latest Mining Journal has arrived - Lets look at

some data, lads.

ABX

Shares,mill - 373

Production, mill oz - 3.0

earnings/share year end sept. - minus 0.28$

Average annual gold price to sept - 353$/oz

Reserves - 51 mill oz

Market cap - 6000 mill,$

Cost/oz reserves = 6000/51 = 117$/oz

Company debt,mill = 500

so -.28$/oz * 373 mill = loss of 104 mill for year

so - 104 mill$ on 3 mill oz = loss of 104/3= 35$/oz

so - profit ( -35 ) = revenue ( 353 ) - cost $/oz

so - cost $/oz = 353 + 35 = 388 $/oz

Rather high for world beaters like yourself and Peter

wouldnt you say TED old bean. Above numbers are average

costs as cash costs can lie. P/L statements cannot or

somebody goes to the slammer. This of course gives no

credit for vaunted and hyped forward sales - which of

course would make the costs look WORSE.

For skylark - you must know that I cannot tell

you the future processing cost of the WA 71 mill oz

deposit. But I do believe that the AVERAGE cost will

be MUCH better than anything MUNK comes up with.

For TED please buy as MUCH ABX as you can and

morgage yourself to the hilt to do it. Forget I

suggested watching for insider selling. Im sure this

stock will make you rich and maybe even as famous as

peter and you will maybe even buy a building somewhere

like he did, hey bob.

Be nice if someone checked my numbers to see if I

made a mistake - did this analysis on the fly - not

you TED = you jes keep right on buyin - peter will

take GOOD care of you, you bet.

3 nyah nyah, ted and

4.my daddy can beat your daddy

The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, December 12, edition that Barrick

Gold chairman Peter Munk will speak at next month's World Economic Forum in

Switzerland, where he plans to debate the price of gold with the bankers.

The Globe's Allan Robinson writes that Mr Munk says the pronouncements of

pending bullion sales by various central banks have cost nine of Europe's

central banks US$32 billion during the past year because of the resulting

plunge in the price of gold. That loss represents an unacceptable reduction

in taxpayers' wealth, he says. The Swiss plan to sell gold has been a main

factor in the metal's recent decline. Mr Munk says right now the knee jerk

reaction of pessimism which has been accelerating during the past three

months hits every gold mining company the same way. Fear in the market

because of possible future central bank sales have cost Mr Munk and his

shareholders dearly. In the end, Mr Munk believes that the bankers won't

allow the value of gold to be debased at the expense of taxpayers.

Investors' net purchases of stock mutual funds dropped in

November to the lowest level since March, the industry's

main trade group estimated on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the main factor believed to be hurting stock fund

purchases--worries over Asia's economic mess--also helped boost

bond fund purchases to the highest level in nearly four years.

The Investment Company Institute estimated that net new cash

flow into stock funds totaled $13.5 billion in November, down 26%

from the actual $18.2 billion net inflow in October.

If the November estimate is accurate, it would be the lowest

inflow since March's $10.3 billion. Fund purchases dropped in

March as interest rates rose and stock prices sank.

http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/BUSINESS/t000112411.html

very confident that my extremely well-placed sources

will prove correct when they predicted recently that

the scandal-plagued President and the Mrs. will soon

come under intense legal attack.

On top of everything else, a President who is

weakened and unable to deal with problems like the

eroding financial condition of Asia could prove to be

too much for even Alan Greenspan and his secret

stock market Plunge Protection Team to fix.

HERE'S SOMETHING ELSE

TO WORRY ABOUT

BY JOHN CRUDELE

BACK in the spring, this column warned that the

Asian economies were showing signs of trouble.

Nobody cared.

The pundits on Wall Street went into their ugly

American routine, saying So what! We will survive

without them.

This column then warned that because of the

economic trouble the Japanese might start selling

some, if not all, of the $300 billion worth of U.S.

government securities they own. Again, nobody cared.

The well-paid know-it-alls on Wall Street figured the

Japanese would never sell because interest rates are

much better here. Today, the Japanese have officially

asked Washington to help them sell the bonds because

- high rates or not - they need the money to bail out

their companies.

When the Asian problem became too obvious a

couple weeks ago for even the perpetually optimistic

to ignore, I started to warn that the profits of

American corporations were in jeopardy. Nobody

cared - strike three.

One genius on TV even said, in front of dozens of his

viewers, We don't sell much over there. Over the

past few weeks, company after company here has

reported financial problems because they do, in fact,

have a lot of business in Asia.

So that this isn't just an I told you so' column, I will -

for my next trick - tell you what to worry about next.

The Dow Jones industrial average is down just 300

points this week. I say just not to minimize the

decline, but to point out that stock prices could drop a

lot more without much provocation.

The next big problem for the stock market could be

seasonality. Stocks, especially small equities, typically

rise in price at the end of the year. This is in

anticipation of what's called the January effect, when

investors historically have favored small capitalization

shares.

The fact that small stocks aren't behaving as they

normally do should concern investors.

Problem two is next week's triple witching hour -

when stock index futures, index options and individual

stock options all expire at the same time.

This column noticed years ago that traders had a

tendency to boost stock prices during this week.

That's because cash is a bad word to most traders.

They'd either take the money from their expiring

contracts and purchase stocks, or roll the money over

into the next quarter's contracts. Either move helps the

market.

The trouble this time is that traders, portfolio managers

and mutual funds may decide that - with the escalating

problems in Asia - they should actually cash in the

derivative contracts. If that happens, next week could

be very ugly for Wall Street.

Third. Nobody really knows the extent of the

problems in Korea, Japan and the other Asian nations.

Each day seems to bring new surprises for Wall Street

to digest. And there's no reason to believe the news

will turn good anytime soon.

Lastly, there's the biggest problem of all, topping even

the Asian situation. And that's the Bill Clinton

scandals.

With grand jury activity picking up in Arkansas, I'm

very confident that my extremely well-placed sources

will prove correct when they predicted recently that

the scandal-plagued President and the Mrs. will soon

come under intense legal attack.

On top of everything else, a President who is

weakened and unable to deal with problems like the

eroding financial condition of Asia could prove to be

too much for even Alan Greenspan and his secret

stock market Plunge Protection Team to fix.

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/1610.htm

Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday.

Trichet declined to confirm the 5% gold holding suggested in a reporter's question, but noted that the figure did not

correspond to anything he had heard.

There had been preliminary exchanges among European monetary officials on the question, but there was no

agreement to make discussions public.

He confirmed, however, there will be gold in the ( ECB ) reserves.

http://www.economeister.com/news/1997_12/11/101700mo.htm

tanks salty for takin da pressha offa me wid dis gumshoe heah.

I tink a gottanodda diatribe somewhere. I gotta go and get

some eats now.

I'm getting the dreaded POP server error something or other.......I must learn to be more literate when it comes to these blessed things. Ted will not be able to get through either....I don't think.

hold your thought........

away...to sleepy sleep

Éßgonnaripanewaholetomorrow

go gold.............I think it will be time to collect ( friday ) .....just a gut ;- )

I will dig out an old diatribe on ABX - which understates costs,

has most expensive reserves of a $/oz basis and tried very hard to

buy bre-x - etc etc blah blah

But first I am dissatified with platinum - as my great prophesy called

for plat to hold 362, gold to hold 480 dm, and 395 swiss. My great

prophecy is falling apart as plat in yen broke a dreaded Gann line

and seems headed for old low of 352 ( ish ) and 45000 yen/oz.

Using Disney's univeral constant of 0.74 or Disney's awful constant of

0.69 would set gold much LOWER unless gold holds in currencies.

Brrrrrrrr

Believe silver has fixed top of up trend channel at 6 bucks - now

do we return to bottom of up trendy This may not be much fun.

What happened to Santa Claus

Learn the words to that song - Its not what you do it's the way

that you do it

Any friend of Aurator cant be ALL bad.

Or

As Father Flannagan might have said ( if he was into money games )

There's no such thing as a bad trader

Welcome to Boys Town - Girls too Coleen you little sweetie.

Like a tiresome Greek chorus, Ive been chanting warnings

about ABX for a long time. To see you begin to question

the merits of this outfit warms the old cockels ( ) of

my heart. Can I see 10 As I posted a few days ago,

I could see 8 ( US$ that was ) .

This share buy back is hype - which is what ABX does

best. If Im not mistaken, they lost money at a higher

gold price, and THEY think they cannot find a better

use for their shareholder's money Watch for insider

selling --- I smell rats. All the above IMHO.