If you went to the site of my earlier post, and downloaded that pdf file, you would see that the BOE had a footnote ( as follows ) stating that gold was valued at $261.11 for the year ending 3/31/98. Does this shake you up? I respectfully suggest that bigger brains than mine need to address questions raised in this Bank of England report.

Gold is valued at the average of the London fixing price for the three months to

end-March, less 25%; or at 75% of its final fixing price on the last working day

in March, whichever is the lower. The gold price in use during the year to

31 March 1998 is US$261.110 per troy ounce.

If you go to the site listed below, you can download a pdf file which lists the BOE gold holdings as of 9/30/97. I will try to figure out what these figures mean, but it would be helpful if other Kitcoites joined me in trying to decipher what all of this new transparency on the part of reporting authorities really means.

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/pub/html/docs/reserve/main.html

Have a look and see what you think!

I see the problem as being multi-faceted. Start with the bad loans for one. They should not have been made. Bad business practice should not be rewarded. IMHO These types of problems become linked to political and cultural differences and escalate into worse problems, rather than dealing with the up front problem of just poor business dealings. The organizations that are bailing out these countries have no money. It is created out of thin air ( printed ) and then loaned. The principle can never be re-paid, and the interest payments live in perpetuity.

Every time there is a problem the US taxpayer is bled a little more by the vampire bankers, government and other political entities/forces that try and enforce their particular brand of philosophy into a business environment. The debt in the US can never be repaid. Yet the government and the bankers keep creating money. The entire system is completely out of control and a patchwork fix here and there is not working. You cannot just create trillions of dollars out of thin air without dire consequences.

The people of Thailand share a burden with people all over the world in that they allow politicians to write checks and print money with their mouths and the stroke of a pen that the people in each country cannot support. Governments get bigger and bigger, never create anything but debt, war and famine, yet they all know what the fix is. Close up certain business entities, fire people, yada, yada, yada. How come you never hear governments say we need to get smaller, we are too big. They are constantly broke, yet they always get paid.

The people get screwed and governments grow, politicians get fat.

Thousands of years have gone by and people the world over are still gullible.

The fix, demand a system of money the politician cannot play with. Demand the governments of the world live within the confines of a budget like the people they govern. Work hard and try to live a life that allows you to look in the mirror in the morning and respect what you see.

You are one and the same!? huh? And you think gold hit bottom.

away...

Éßconfusedorlooneyorboth

Ted - the Can$ is on a tear!!!! UP 6 whole ticks.......yehaaaaaaa!! ;-0

go gold....ugh...

Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 12:49

Donald__A ( Bank of England reveals gold reserves ) ID#26793:

Bank of England: Opens books on forex and

gold reserves

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 3 1997

By Robert Chote, Economics Editor

The Treasury and the Bank of England, the UK central bank, yesterday

opened the books on the Britain's reserves of gold and foreign exchange,

revealing that the government has more in its war chest than earlier figures

suggested.

away...to w/w...hmmmmmmmm

Éß'sCBsales.oh.my

away...to search for clues.....

Éßw/w

away

Éßthankful

We approach production costs, therefore we come to the end

of this game. This is not lost to the oil states. They, along

with three CBs are buying as this is written! The size of these

orders could make the turn? We will see by way of a flat price

over several weeks. If yes, then those with orders of a month

delivery are to late. We approach unsettled times.

SDRer and 223 - You're welcome. Hope the analysis has value for you.

Some people have followed the gold market from 1970. Some

have followed it all their lives, depending on when you were

born. Some say they were right, as the market has fallen and

they held “no gold”. They council from experience and a short

life.

But, some have traded gold from times before.

Those who trade with the sun know we will never have

“Deja-Vu” again. This market is unlike anything from the past.

And those with a “short life” of investing will learn from this

coming future as gold will show their knowledge was limited

to where they stood on the mountain!

Unlike the past, this market has an end. And this end will not

be for those who have waited to buy! They see this bottom

at $100 or $200 or $250, and they will buy at the turn as no

fool should have held from $360! But, I say they will buy only

paper if lucky!

All should make ready and be holding metal only, as the turn

will move $100+ the first day and $200 the second day as

comex is closed! It will trade no more from the 3rd day on!

The gold market of your youth will be no more! For those

who were smart from experience not to buy at $400, will

look at $600 as “the deal of a lifetime”.

To close,

Try to live in this outcome and see how different the world

will be. It will not be the end of all things, only the changing

of most things in “western thought”. The “Digital Currencies”

will still trade, but we will value them as not before.

Anyone who has sold gold they do not have will not be

allowed to cover that position. Anyone who has brought gold

they do not have will not be allowed to cover that position.

Many will lose all they have in a world without honor! Looking

back , one will ask, “how could I have thought that noone

wanted gold, when more of it was being brought than existed”?

Indeed, more gold than exists or will be produced in the next

ten years! And some say, “only a fool would say the market

was cornered”.

During that time, a gold stock in the hand will not trade on

an open market! And the government of the country, of the

land, of the mine, will no doubt speak with you of new taxes

on GOLD!

A year has passed as the winds of change have started to

blow. Waste no more time on paper gold, you have suffered

enough. Play paper games no more, as the future of your

family waits a decision.

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Gdt20/High20.htm

Our problem is that the US dollar is historically very strong relative to the currencies or the other gold buyers. Thus only in US dollar terms, and in other currencies that tend to move with the US dollar, is gold really historically cheap.

And who are the gold buying countries? The WGC deals with this as well.

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Gdt20/Keymarks.htm

For a better regional breakdown, try these links ( developed and developing markets ) .

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Gdt21/Deping21.htm

http://www.gold.org/Gedt/Gdt21/Deped21.htm

As you will see from the regional charts, India is the largest buyer, followed by SE Asia, then China. The US and Europe are 4th and 5th. Now look at the currencies of major buyers like India, S. Korea, Thailand, Japan, Taiwan. Especially look at the action in November and December.

http://www.djtelerate.com.hk/htmls/fixed/charts/FXChart_reg.html

Is it starting to make sense? Is it any surprise that gold is at record lows ( $US ) and the drop is accelerating?

Yes, of course this is not the whole story. Demand is increasing, at least according to the WGC. And, on the supply side, we have three factors:

1. Shorts, loans, and forward sales that have to be unraveled.

2. Producers costs are under pressure, as weakness of many producer currencies have not kept pace with the drop in the price of gold. Mines closing, etc.

3. Potential additional CB selling.

Nevertheless, the currency and exchange rate issue is perhaps the major factor affecting gold price in the near term. Don't expect gold to rally until the US dollar begins to weaken. I don't see this happening until the Asian situation starts to stabilize. EB is a currency trader. Perhaps this explains his good predictions re: gold price movements.

Hope you all find this useful.

Lonrho preparing bid for JCI -papers

LONDON, Dec 7 ( Reuters ) - UK-based mining and African trading group Lonrho Plc was preparing for a 450 million stg bid for JCI Ltd ( JHNL.J ) , the South African mining group, the Sunday Telegraph said.

The Sunday Times also reported a bid was in the offing and that Deutsche Morgan Grenfell was advising Lonrho and SBC Warburg was advising JCI.

Lonrho and JCI had held merger talks earlier this year.

The Sunday Telegraph said Lonrho was though to have made an informal approach to JCI, but an announcement of a deal was not imminent.

No one at Lonrho was available to comment on the reports.

The Sunday Telegraph also said rumours in Johannesburg suggested that Lonrho had grown tired of its ongoing discussions with JCI and was keen to set a quick end to the affair.

It said Lonrho would finance a bid for JCI from the imminent sale of its luxury Princess hotel chain, worth about 250 million stg, and its other financial resources.

Excellent ( ! ) .....oh seer...

away...to the charts

Éßgivemepaperacalculatorandalongruleroverfoodanydayhooyah

ssstthhp!----------whock!--------- ( open hand ) -----impressive...!

We had that nice move due to the tight channel it has been in AND the STRONG US$...right It is good to be carrying US$ wherever you are. AT THIS MOMENT.....

All...do not come undone here because I realize that things can and most likely DO change ( change is the ONLY constant ) . The Buck ( US$ ) will go down and the cycle will continue....sorry for the repetition. I just love cycles. Which reminds me, Nick I have yet to study your cycle page...am looking forward. JTF, I just now saw the other day where you dumped your XAU puts because I did.....hmmmmmmm.....I hope you don't make that same mistake ( doing what I do ) more than once....or twice;- )

away......to be humbled by the woman I love....oh my...they can do these things and we are HELPLESS to it......go gold...go Ted...go lakers...

Éßhavinfunonasunday

Quote-Boy - You can quote me ANYtime.....I owe you a few coldies....or a Lexus, I just don't know how generous I'll be yet ( grin ) . Thanks for removing the obstacles in my way. I can see MUCH more clearly now, the rain is gone ( for now ) .....oh my....it gonna be a bright, bright , sunshiny day..........$$$

What I was referring to was the CB's selling gold. Not the dirty-oily people who call themselves politicians. And I don't think that the balanced budget ( thing ) that SDRer asked me about has much to do with the current ( and I mean CURRENT ) state of Gold. There is an agenda here and all here are trying to figure it out. I don't know what it is, YET. We will find out though. Some have said here that gold has 'uncoupled' itself from the other PM's. I agree, I agree, I agree. Gold is a dog on MANY peoples minds and on paper ( no pun intended ) . It is being 'treated' unfairly. It will act like a whooped dog and roll over for me to rub it's belly ( right now ) . I LOVE gold and think that gold should be priced higher than it is right now. I have stated this many times before. I will be LONGER than many here ( or maybe not;- ) ) when the time is right. And I will have more 'dry powder' too. Gold will get to 400oz some day. But I will NEVER estimate the time frame for that move. Now I'm rambling and it's time to go.....

away...

Éßugforeverohmy

Per Shuji Karasawa of the Japanese parliament: “Japanese gold holdings are far too low”

Dec 5 - TOKYO:

Per Head of Japanese LDP: “US Dollar dependence too great, we need more gold to offset excessive Dollar dependence.”

Financial Fairy-tale or Expedient Global Monetary Necessity: Global Gold Standard?! STARTLING IMF data demonstrate its feasibility. BOJ’s T-Bond holdings is the keystone for success. Japan would need to buy many tonnes of GOLD. EMU member participation essential.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle714.html

Mr Arnold says. Indeed, next year we would not be at

all surprised to see $US250/oz touched.

However, we do believe that much of the damage is

already in the stocks, said a hopeful Mr Cohen. But he

also says: The lowest we could see the gold price going

is to around $US260/oz, roughly equal to the average

cash cost of production.

At such a price, he says, gold would be trading with

virtually no premium for the role it has held for thousands

of years as a value store against unexpected inflation,

economic crisis and political instability.

Others are not so sure if gold should have this premium at

all. Analysts such as Mr Arnold and Andy Smith of UBS

in London suggest gold is losing much of its monetary

status and hence its price premium should disappear.

Mr Smith argues that what happened to silver in the latter

19th century is now happening to gold. Silver was

demonetised between 1870 and 1900. It then lost 65 per

cent of its value as European central banks liquidated

their silver holdings.

Although the history of gold and silver may not be

parallel, there are silver linings in gold's demonetisation,

says Mr Smith.

Gold is becoming more of a commodity every day in this

inflationless, globalised economy, they say. And like

any commodity with such a massive stock overhang,

prices must fall to bring balance back to the market.

http://www.afr.com.au/content/971208/market/markets9.html

Also would this calls be bought back in '98? since RYO costs in last qtr were $310 and presumably expected under $300 for the 4th qtr. according to a news release of a few weeks ago.

Thanks

It would appear that shareholders have paid an expensive price in her misread of the bullion market.

Having second thoughts.

..and can you be more specific in your forecast re: rally in early '98 ( Jan?Feb? )

thanks

Now...

I am confused at statements like this. How can this be said and believed if EVERY time the announcement of CB sales drives the price DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. Is this just something to say to make us feel better and to throw more good money at BAD!? I will ask Spud or whoever....who is writing dis-information on Kitco? ME?!? Or all who say things like what ROR said ( absolutely NO offense ROR ) . I guess some Kitcoites can believe this and waste their money.......who am I to argue...It ain't MY money.........ugh. I would be more inclined to understand and believe this if a time frame was put on the 'slow down' part. Say one month, one year, never...etc...

Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 09:13

ROR ( Fundametlist and RJ ) ID#35767:

CB sales are insignificant and their lending will slow down

once the demand for loans dissapates.

This gold market is SOOOOOOOOOO slippery weak and in such dire need of change that I guess anything will be said in the 'hopes' that this will make it turn around. This 'Bottom' is NOT in. And it WON'T be in for some time. And when the dust settles gold will be cheap and I will BUY, BUY, BUY!!! 'what goes down, must go....etc.'

Now here is something interesting for the option players ( with mention of gold ) to chew on. Eh, Savage I'm coming at ya, real soon. I had/have many honeydoes to do. But the house looks GREAT! oh my...

http://www.iepstein.com/mletters/options/options.html

this dude ( TimZ ) is okee dokee sometimes. I have a net-minder on this guys page ( and others ) to inform me when he writes new stuff...it's pretty cool stuff and here it is.

http://www.netmind.com/URL-minder/

Hey Ted, you are right. Have one....no two for me...

away...to bring on the cheer

Éß

Are there obvious and subtle forces for gold to continue this bearish slide? I don't know and am just asking.

Is it that the lustre of gold as a store of value no longer holds true, and that demand and consumption are equally depressed. Why should gold bounce here--because it can--because it would look good on the charts? Are such hopeful expectations ever satisfied; I don't know until I make my bet and see what the market price tells me.

Speculation seems the only play for a bearish market; investing and holding any depressed commodity is hard on your time horizon and discipline until such bullishness reappears, and as commented below, quoting Rogers, bearishness can exist a very long time below the production levels before any commodity price will bottom out, settle and market forces drive the price up again. Perhaps it is better to be selling a sinking commodity than buying it in hope for catching the bottoms--how many bottoms have there been these past sev

For Oris

Thanks for vodka tip - I lived in Istanbul for 4 years once. Used

to be able get great caviar pretty cheap - better than Iranian by far.

Recipe - for yummy vodka. Open bottle ( s ) - cut rind from lemon.

Stuff into bottle. Place bottle in deep freeze - wont freeze but

gets REALLY cold and almost viscous. Wait a month.

Drink in small shot classes with caviar - or whatever -

frankfurters, hard cheese, stale bread. DEElicious.

URL for data - god Im hopeless - can you refer me to post in

question.

One exception. in period in mid 1980's when oil price dropped

from 30 bucks to under 10 in a year, there was a coincident drop

in PPI/CPI. This effect cleared out in about a year and precipitated

a gold runup practically on the anniversary of the oil price

collapse.

At that time, I was following the CPI index numbers themselves

( from Barons ) rather than the rate of change of the index - which

I find pretty useless.

Problem is that now I cant find the CPI/PPI indexes ANYWHERE.

I think this info is now on a need to know basis, along with

Ron Brown and Vince Foster.

As an aside, we are truly in the information age. The secret

is to control, twist, distort, manipulate, and spin that

information to one's benefit. There's money in it.

Rumored today:

Heard a story that somebody bought 10 million oz silver today and will take delivery next week. If this is true, this would put a terrific strain on warehouse supplies. Silver would rise to $6 + in the next couple weeks.

I run across a couple stories like this every week. Most, of course are BS, but even those tend have a kernel of truth buried within. It is here that one may find forecast if the eye is keen and properly prejudiced but, more often than not, what sounds untrue, is untrue, and verisimilitude is the only window of true intent.

In my army days, during the early Reagan years, I was trained as an interrogator and schooled in the fundamentals of believability. Any story, to be true, must have certain elements and a defined structure lest it collapse under its own weight. Once recognition of these elements are taught, a student would then find herself viewing all life through this discerning lens. An interrogator, at his core, is a restless soul who holds all to the barometer of truth and judges which is fit to remain held aloft. This, like the ancient Chinese curse, May you live in interesting times., at first glance, appears a blessing, but often proves the reverse.

Noticeably lacking from the story of the rumored buyer of 10 million oz silver is the most important element of any piece of information: The source. Anything one may hear is meaningless without knowing the source. Also lacking are players in this warehouse grab……….. last week it was George Soros at the helm, who is it this week? Republic? J. Arron? The architects are all absent.

Some mention has been made about my theory of hidden silver stocks. I have never made mention of any stocks of silver that are being hidden or camouflaged in any way. Rather, many million oz of silver have simply found their way into storage facilities the do not report holdings publicly. This is the missing silver of which I suspect exists in sufficient quantities to fulfill any and all demands of delivery. I see no short squeeze on silver.

This said, and unequivocally so, let me acknowledge that I could be entirely wrong about this and the next couple weeks will tell. If silver flirts with $6, I will be surprised and quite willing to sell it into a black hole from those lofty heights.

PS

….. Groovy Goldbug Fellow …..

I think the Major CB's of the free world have a buttload of gold

May I quote you? You are very eloquent of late, and a continuing pleasure to read.

Awaytoemplythecolostomybagstoseeifthereisanygoldinthem

shorten your life span pretty quick hey bob. But why would

somebody shot somebody else on a plane just before it crashed

Seems like overkill to me. Or was he shot after the plane

crashed

Are we seriously saying here that Clinton is guilty of murder

That's serious - You can go to jail for that - I mean you can go

to jail for saying Clinton is guilty of murder.