- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:55
themissinglink__A U>(Hiding $US inflation by sending it overseas) ID#373403: - I am beginning to believe that the market makers can fool the majority of us forever ( not we the informed of Kitco though ) . Measures of inflation are rigged to not show up when it is dollars running around overseas. Gold prices are fixed by insiders. The stock market rises and falls by sentiment.
In this information age inflation figures, gold prices, and stock prices are still fixed in the centuries old smoke filled back room.
What will bring reality back, albeit harsh, is a supply shock such as oil shortage or crop failure which will bring real ( not manipulatible dollar ) inflation. Then the continuously rolled over debts of the world will become real. Then gold will have it's day.
Please don't bring up emotional cries that I am hoping for the end of democracy. The fundamentals are already there. The bulls hope I am wrong and lose all my money in gold. The bears hope reality returns to the weakened fundamentals and their gold holdings will enrich them. Gaining wealth is relative in a democracy. There is nothing wrong with bears wanting to bite the bullet and write off the bad debts of the banks and the governments and start fresh. If we can become relatively wealthier because of our forsight is no reason to call our hopes pessimism.
To do that is to ignore all our culpability in allowing our governments and financial systems to leverage our childrens future for our current consumption.
Steve
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:43
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD U>(TO ANOTHER) ID#431263: - Herr Another--If I read your last post correctly, the CB's are woefully short the physical gold necessary to fulfill all the outstanding paper gold derivatives they have written against their physical holdings available for sale. Compounding this problem is the large number of paper shorts put on by the hedge funds who will have to cover when the Saudi's start demanding physical gold instead of paper gold which as you point out has already begun. The confluence of all these events at a time when most currencies not tied to the dollar or gold are getting hammered will ultimately ( and soon ) lead to an untenable situation in the gold market which will require the immediate and dramatic one-time repricing of gold in terms of dollars which will alter the world economy forever and will lead to a situation where only the holders of physical gold will be winners, while those without gold will be permanent losers able to purchase gold only on the black market if at all! The new paradigm will be gold-based and those who hold the gold will rule those who don't. Is this correct? If not, please correct me!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:41
SDRer__A U>(JTF, about the hi-techs) ID#288156: - there wasn't wild enthusiasm at Comdex this
year. Nothing big or NEW coming out ( this from
the attendees to whom I've spoken ) ...which
usually acts as the accelerator to big years.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:28
Tyler Rose U>(ANOTHER) ID#373164: -
The posts from ANOTHER are, I admit, somewhat enigmatic; however, I would like for them to continue, as I see a pattern of clearness emerging. So, ANOTHER, please continue with your posts for the enlightenment of all.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:26
SDRer__A U>(Through the N-S...) ID#288156: - JTF: using the LBMA volume as a crude indicator of central bank instability?
To: JTF@Creative!
I like it. In fact, I like it a lot.
It seems to dovetail very nicely with AZAU's brillant conjectures.
As you know, I firmly believe in ‘eccentric’ indicators at this point in time ( by which I mean innovative/creative, and --if possible--it what we are pleased to call ‘real time’ ( which doesn’t exist anymore? )
With regards to Another: I think I actually understand what is being
said ( maybe that is a result of too much week-end ) . And to make matters worse, can think of isolated facts which substantiate. Still ....Yet....
And Another’s writing pattern has changed...which means what?
Lordy, it was much easier when one just poured over the annual reports, attended to the footnotes, and footnotes of the footnotes, bought stock and made money!
IMF bonds--I've been expecting that; it is, after all, the logical
next step for the money is free crowd. If I am anywhere near
target, there is a titanic ( not a bad pun ) struggle beginning, and we need not to get caught in the fall out!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:15
sharefin U>(And still they go up.) ID#284255: - Foreigners net sellers of Japan stock via 11 firms
TOKYO, Dec 1 ( Reuters ) - Orders placed by foreign investors through 11 foreign securities houses before the start of stock trading on Monday showed a net selling stance of 10.5 million shares, market sources said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971130/foreigners_net_selle_1.html
Foreign investors placed 24.5 million shares of sell orders against 14.0 million shares of buys.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:11
sharefin U>(Who's been taking lessons from AG?) ID#284255: - FOCUS-Public funds to protect depositors--Japan PM
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971130/japan_finance_1.html
``The financial system is the foundation of the economy, and to ensure stability we will take every possible measure.''
Even as he spoke, Tokyo share prices -- including those of financial firms -- rose on the growing optimism over signs that authorities were ready to take the politically risky step.
``Hopes are mounting over the use of public funds to stabilise the financial sector,'' a trader at a foreign brokerage said. But he added there were still many investors who wanted to sell and take profits when prices went up.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:06
ROR U>(Techs) ID#35767: - Short the techs as the economy is heading south. People I speak with have never been more negative about what is starting to develop in business and what they are seeing with massive bankruptcies and delinquincies. A few good tech jobs yes but the massive creation of Mc jobs is not going to make it . If you include discouraged workers and forced part time the national unemloyment rate is approaching an ominous 15%. This is the highest rate of unemployment among industrialized countries. US marts doing well as we have the most anti labor pro business laws in the advanced world. Hopefully after the collapse we will get a political environment that will rein in capital. Freeze on Fast Track is encouraging. Comments.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 23:04
larryn__A U>(gold funds) ID#32078: - For you select investors who utilize gold funds, Eaglewing has updated its page concerning last week's fund results. 12 of 35 funds were down 10% or more in 4 days, including both Fidelity funds. In the last 6 weeks, all but 5 are down 20% or more. For 1997, 9 are down more than 50%. When gold reverses ( dollar reverses down ) , these will move back up proportionately.
Look for the update page. No password required this week.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:57
Tantalus Rex U>(Etienne fron Switzerland) ID#295111: - Would anyone know which mining stocks Alain Etienne is holding?
This guy, a senior partner of the Geneva asset management firm Etienne, Odier, Pythoud and Cie, has apparently sold more than eighty percent of his equity portfolio, and now has ten percent in gold and about fifteen percent in gold mining shares - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:56
JTF U>(@IMF pulls the rabbit out of its hat -- 180 billion?) ID#57232: - SDRer: So - the IMF is going to issue bonds of some kind that someone will have to buy. I wonder what the enticement is for the buyer? A guarantee of repayment by the IMF? As I recall, this sounds very much what lead to the international banking crisis of the early eighties. What will be different? Partial ownership of the indebted companies? Can the buyer choose which ones? How long-term are these bonds going to be, and what kind of quality will be assigned to them? When do the debtor countries have to start paying interest, and at what rate? I think there is an implicit assumtion that the SE Asian market will bouce back within a year or two -- doubtful.
I wonder -- is the SDR part of this in some subtle way?
Are American Banks going to be the biggest buyers of debt? Bad timing for the USA, if this is so -- we have our White Night AG flooding the international markets with dollars to keep 1/3 of the world afloat, and now we will be adding more debt to the US balance sheets. A risky game, I think!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:49
Tantalus Rex U>(Japan) ID#295111: - Nikkei is up about 375 pts...~2%..short term stability?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:43
Speed U>(@home) ID#29082: - JTF: If the big players in electronics do well, then the NASDAQ will benefit from the momentum. Globex nasdaq up 875 right now. Place your bets, the wheel is turning.
Reminder to ALL: Many mutual funds distribute capital gains in December. Be careful that you don't buy a big tax liability!
Be back tomorrow. Cheers - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:33
sharefin U>(You must do it our way!!!) ID#284255: - Asia Rescue Fund Hits Snags, Aid Seen Delayed
http://www.yahoo.com/text/headlines/971130/news/stories/imf_6.html
The proposed Asian bail-out fund has been resisted by Western nations led by the United States, which have insisted the IMF play the central role in the rescue operations and any funds be used in line with stringent IMF conditions.
Bear market may prove a shock
http://www.usatoday.com/money/401k016.htm
When we have a serious market downturn and people start seeing their individual account balances drop by 15%, 20%, even 30%, you will see an outcry, predicts David Blitzstein, director of the office of negotiated benefits at the United Food and Commercial Workers Union. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:31
JTF U>(US Retail rally for sure. Selective computer rally?) ID#57232: - Speed: I agree with you on general retail sales in the US -- looking strong. What I am not so sure about are the flagship electronics stocks. I would guess that the companies with most of their production in SE Asia would benefit the most from the currency crisis, much better than totally or partially US-based operations. I guess you are right about one thing -- HP will be able to cut prices this time -- with less of a cut in profits!
Will what you say be enough to boost the entire Nasdaq? I don't know.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:30
MoReGoLd U>(@Slick Willy does it again!) ID#348129: - Reno won't seek outside counsel for Clinton, Gore
By James Vicini
WASHINGTON, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - Attorney General Janet Reno will not seek the appointment of an independent counsel to investigate fund-raising calls by President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore, Justice Department officials said on Sunday.
They said Reno's decision, which had been widely expected, could be conveyed as early as Monday to a special three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals. Under the independent counsel law, Reno must act no later than on Tuesday.
They said Reno also will not seek an independent counsel to investigate allegations that then-Energy Secretary Hazel O'Leary illegally solicited a charitable contribution from Democratic fund-raiser Johnny Chung in return for a meeting with Chinese officials.
Reno met on Sunday with top Justice Department officials, including Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder and the head of a task force investigating campaign fund-raising violations, to review the final legal submissions, the officials said.
``This meeting was not unexpected. It's pretty much pro forma,'' one official said. ``It's all teed up and ready to go. Why wait until Tuesday? I anticipate no reason to drag this out further.''
But another official cautioned that there was ``no guarantee'' Reno would act on Monday and said Tuesday might be more likely. ``She often has more questions,'' he added.
Gore has acknowledged making more than 40 telephone calls seeking campaign contributions from his White House office. Clinton has said he does not recall dialing for dollars, but has not ruled out making such calls.
Task force prosecutors and top Reno aides have recommended against seeking an independent counsel for the Clinton-Gore calls.
They said the 114-year-old law at issue that bars solicitation of campaign contributions on federal government property has never been applied to phone calls seeking contributions from private citizens who were not on federal property.
On the O'Leary allegations, one official said: ``The facts don't support the appointment of an independent counsel.''
Reno's expected move has outraged Republicans in Congress, who have demanded that she name an independent counsel to investigate the campaign fund-raising controversy involving Clinton and the Democratic Party before the 1996 election.
Sen. Arlen Specter, a Republican from Pennsylvania, wrote to Reno last week, saying that her focus only on the Clinton-Gore phone calls was too narrow.
Specter urged the appointment of an outside counsel to look at broader fund-raising allegations that the Democrats conspired to evade spending limits in Clinton's re-election campaign.
Reno returned to the Justice Department for the Sunday meeting after spending the Thanksgiving holiday in Miami, resting up from a trip to Mexico during which she became ill.
Reno fainted at a reception on Tuesday night, was admitted to a hospital in Mexico City overnight. She was diagnosed with gallstones and fatigue before cutting short her Mexican trip on Wednesday and flying to Florida.
Officials said Reno still planned to see a doctor in Washington, D.C. for her problem with gallstones, but felt better. ``She said she is feeling 100 percent better,'' one official said.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:21
JTF U>(@Home - musing) ID#57232: - SDRer: I did not realize you were referring to ANOTHER's ID number, but I think my comment still was very appropriate. I'm not sure I understand the rest of your line of thinking, but if you are saying beware ANOTHER's confusing reasoning - that I understand. I find the information content of his/her posts beginning to reach the vanishing point. I have been on the net long enough not to believe anything from one source -- but I have learned that it is always important to read material outside the mainstream. Lyndon Larouches material is a good example of this -- like why does the intelligence community read his writings? What is so special about LL that he has a first-rate information gathering service? Why does LL seem on the ball on some things such as the world-wide derivatives crisis, and so off the wall about other topics? Perhaps he takes some of his own intelligence too seriously!
What do you think about my suggestion of using the LBMA volume as an crude indicator of central bank instability?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:20
sharefin U>() ID#284255: - JTF
Summer is very dry here in the southern part of OZ,
So little relief likely.
The normal wet in the tropics will not be good coutesy of El Nino.
The El Nino condition does not bode well for us Aussies.
As to the markets - uncertain.
As much as all the markets seem uncertain at the moment.
Good potential for a s/t downtrend to start soon.
As to jumping ship ( EB ) - always a possible choice.
I wish to see the next three days trends first.
There are too many people changing heart and talking of this new bear market, that we are entering. Time to be patient? - maybe.
Avid chatter
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The economy in Japan is crashing in slow motion - autos off 20% y/y, housing starts down 25% y/y, construction orders down 11% y/y, industrial production declining 0.4% m/m sequential, etc. etc. S. Korea is in the same mode and now there are rumors about problems in China. I think there is significant risk of a classic 1930s style depression in Asia if these countries cannot export their way out of this crunch.
Taiwan's KMT Loses Election, Stocks Seen Plummeting Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang lost its majority support in local politics, the party's worst setback since its leaders escaped Chinese Communists by fleeing to this island in 1949. Taiwan's main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party, won 43 percent of the votes and doubled its seats to 12 out of the 23 up for grabs yesterday in elections for county chiefs and city mayors. The DPP is in favor of Taiwan becoming completely independent of mainland China. The KMT halved its seats to 8 and saw its vote share drop to as low as 42 percent. The unexpected result will likely cause a decline in value of the Taiwan dollar and send Taiwan's benchmark index plummeting as much as 7 percent this week, analysts said.
and how pray tell will it all get financed you ask looks like some new bonds are commin on stream.....IMF May Sell Bonds for First Time to Raise Funds, Analysts Say The International Monetary Fund may consider selling bonds for the first time to meet its expanding role as the lender of last resort for the world's troubled economies, money managers and traders said. Such a move would give the IMF additional resources to meet the growing need for money to assist faltering economies in Asia and the developing world, they said. Bond sales would require no additional approval from IMF member countries.
no additional approval.....but where are they gonna find buyers for this new class of Junk Debt?
boy let's all get bullish on korea......South Korean, Southeast Asian Banks Need $55 Bln to Offset Loans Banks in South Korea and Southeast Asia, battered by Asia's economic crisis, will have to raise more than $55 billion in new capital to offset the effect of bad loans on their balance sheets, a banking analyst said. Even after an infusion of an estimated $36 billion to clean up their balance sheets, however, Korea's banks would be ``virtually worthless,'' said Robert Zielinski, head of Asian banking research for Jardine Fleming International Securities Ltd.
Also Japanese firms have been told to look at closing out overseas investment and to look at home first before overseas as if this isn't complied with the BOJ will call up loans on the spot.......
that the BOJ is forcing the Japanese financial institutions to buy japanses stocks
and if they don't comply, overdraft loans will be called up on the spot......That is why you are seeing a consistant rise in the nikkie over the last couple of days
I asked why here at daiwa they where buying more stock and this was the answer I got......
heck even better than direct intervention....sheesh the US fed must be given them lessons:}
This is becoming a very dangerous market at the moment .....The speculators are bringing the banks into focus more and this could mean problems down the track........Blackmail
does that portend negitive for US securities held in japan?
technically no but fundermentally yes.......Question is who is going to service the US debt if the Asian firms aren't allowed too.......next source would be the Arabs and then....WHO
do you think japan will pull the trigger and start to sell US securites? If so, what is the time frame, weeks, months, years?
where are the banks getting cash to buy stocks? I thought their capital was tapped.
.yes but to a certain degree......Japanese firms can buy stock now and pay after 10 working days where as the overseas or small investors can buy stock and pay for it on the day........That line of credit is throught the Goverment which in return is put up by the BOJ.....
Capital and cash to buy assets for a bank's balance sheet are two separate items. The government allows them to use depositors money or even BOJ borrowing to purchase equities if on the approved list. Much the same as here in the U.S.
Japan would export their problems to the U.S. to save themselves.
so if the japan market tanks after a run up... the japan savers take it on the chin? and the big boys get out with the cash... And pretty boy floyd when asked why to you rob banks ( markets ) he answered Cause thats where the money is!
depositors funds can be used as long as they are in the attempt to increase the value of the banks portfolio....
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:06
SDRer__A U>(TO:JTF ...The hierarchy of our ID numbers...) ID#288157: - Had you not noticed? JTF, we're on the lower rung..you have the two's, the threes and Another at 6xx,xxx...
You write, as always, with clear logic and refreshing Sanity. Sometimes I wonder; this small anecdote will show you what I wonder about: it is said that in a discussion which took place at a reception at G.H. Lewes's, sosmebody asserted that everyone had written a tragedy. Lewes agreed with the statement, saying, Yes, everyone--even Herbert Spencer. Ah, interposed Huxley, I know what the catasptophe would be--
an induction killed by a fact.
Stay on course, my friend.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 22:03
Speed U>(December Retail - I'm tired of losing money on gold) ID#29082: - The U.S. economy powers onward. Consumer spending for December is going to be the best in several years. Plentiful jobs, easy credit and forthcoming tax credits for kids all combine to give the American consumer plenty of Christmas cash. Watch the retailing sector lead the next charge. Low inflation and declining interest rates are helping the housing sector ( see Avid momentum section and Schippi's Fidelity stuff ) . Lower oil prices will help with utility bills. The IMF has plenty of cash for bailouts and they are making deals with the Asian Tigers. Whoever doesn't like gold ( pick your theory ) still has dry powder and will expend it to keep the yellow down. Beware the dead cat bounce in gold and try to get ready for a merry Christmas. Tie some ribbon around those eagles and pandas and maples and they make real pretty ornaments for the tree! You guys who think electronics are going down, watch Compaq, Intel, HP and Dell. December is a great month for sales and resupply from the Asian circuit board and chip makers is going to be very cheap. Instead of trying to figure out how the crash will begin, look for who will make money as a result of the currency problems. Then buy their stock!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:58
fundaMETAList U>(@MJb4u) ID#341214: - MJb4u:
FWN recently moved to a new URL. Until Bart has a chance to point his FWN connection to the new address you can use the instructions below. By themselves they will give you access to 24 hour old headlines. If you sign up for their free membership you have access to 6 hour old news which is what I believe we get through Bart's link.
Go to http://gamma.futuresource.com/. Click on Free Internet Services, then click on Free News then click on Metal ( which is to the right of FWN-Energy & Metal ) . Use the backup buttons at the bottom of the page until some headlines start displaying.
fundaMETAList
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:58
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD U>(BLAH BLAH BLARNEY BLAH BLAH) ID#431263: - Herr Blarney: I love you! You love me! We're one happy family! BLAH! BLAH! BLAH! The Pack will send the VIKINGS PACKING 2MORROW NIGHT! My prediction: PACKERS 31 VIKINGS 17. This is Holmgren's last demon to exorcise before he wins SUPER BOWL XXII! COUNT ON IT!!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:54
paperdoll U>(New member (PAPERDOLL)) ID#224122: - My Sweetheart is new to computers and the WEB, and will need some help
She has been an ivestor for years in futures and metals, and will need some help. Email Add. is ZZYZX@prtcnet.com Thanks JIM ( Iam married to a real life PAPERDOLL ) - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:54
JTF U>(Is Japan in a LT rally?) ID#57232: - All: If we use our technical methods on the Nikkei, what do we get? Is this the final bottom -- and foreign investors are buying because they see the end of the tunnel -- finally -- after over 7 years?
Or -- do we have one of those bear market short-term rally traps? My guess is that China's formal announcement of a debt crisis will be the trigger to send Japan south one more time. Then the Japanese market may be worth looking at, as we do know the Nikkei does respond to a different drum than the other western markets.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:46
JTF U>(@Home -- Everyone I know is buying Christmas goods like there is no end in sight!) ID#57232: - sharefin: Hope you get wet weather soon.
Any comments about the trend of the market? Any lock step pattern?
I'm wondering if we have a short-term end of month US market rally coming up. AG will not wish to raise rates without a clear currency crisis -- he will have to find other ways to keep the market down -- if it does rally. Hard to believe, but possible.
Also at some point AG may loosen up on rates a bit mid 1988 -- for a number of reasons - deflation, elections coming up. My take is that if the US markets do not crash this year -- gold will begin to rally in anticipation of returning dollar inflation. The Kondratiev wave correction could be postponed to 1999-2000!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:26
EB U>(........Heppster.......ryme me some gold thoughts...........) ID#22956: - Now that you are antagonist turned poet ;- ) . It has been seeming that you are now changing camps.......this cannot be......the HepRatCat a gold bull?!?!? And just when we have our sights set below 290.......oh dear!
away
Éßpoetandgoldbearsunited
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:25
tolerant1 U>(sharefin) ID#31868: - Truly sorry to hear that. I hope you folks get a reprieve and get some wet weather. Good luck
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:24
JTF U>(ANOTHER @ Level 600,000?) ID#57232: - SDRer: ANOTHER is at a different level. He/She ( I think ) has enough gold already, and wants to preserve his/her assets -- unlike many of the rest of us, who wish to make more money before rushing to spent it all on bullion.
I do think ANOTHER means well, and is communicating over a cultural barrier. I think the reason he/she continues to communicate with us is because we all do speak the same language -- most of us do understand the need to preserve our assets with a currency that cannot be debased.
However, ANOTHER is having a hard time understanding why some of us want to trade gold rather than buy it. The answer is simple -- most of us don't feel comfortable with the amount of gold ( or gold equivalents ) that we have, and wish to save more for that rainy day. Also -- ANOTHER's mindset is very long term -- and he/she needs stimulus from us to think in the now mindset.
Hopefully we can keep ANOTHER's interest as the saga unfolds, and hopefully the dialogue will be beneficial. When ANOTHER speaks in riddles, I feel if he/she is just playing with us. I must be patient, because some of this may be cultural.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:23
STUDIO.R U>(GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD/WATCH PBS...NOT CNBC) ID#93232: - G.C.,...
The mutual funds, now more numerous than equity issues, are the main advertisers on CNBC, hence, Kudlow and associates are only reporting what works for the market. Watch an old Jerry Lewis flick instead, it will be better acting.
The tragic flaw with the cheap oil/lower manufacturing costs lead to selective deflation conditions that will drive the Dow argument is that computers will sell cheaper along with vitually everything else. The computer stocks have powered the stock market...say goodnight to earnings for this sector and many others.
How can these CNBC jokers really believe that deflation will leave the Dow untouched? Oil pricing is at the heart of all-flations.
Their selectively exclusive argumentum ad wallstreetum for beneficial
deflation reminds me of my Mother's take on what goes around..comes around....she told me...It's like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire, that crap just keeps coming around to get ya! Smart woman. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:21
EB U>(...........Betting Against the US$...............do it at your own Peril.............) ID#22956: - Why the Hell do I do it!? Look at all the other currencies AND the US indices to boot.........hmmmmmmmmmmm.........it is what the world likes right now...who am I to argue
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi
Now this is a different breed of cat............ugh........it is what the world does NOT like right now........hmmmmmmmm......
http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/charts32s.exe?chart=Gold+Futures&month=Dec+%2797
Is the end in sight!? Or will it be more of the same. Should we jump ( or remain ) on board?!? Or should we jump ship?!? Nick?!?
AWAY!.....to open the spinnaker...and power full speed ahead
Éßurninuptheoceanblue...uh huh...
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:18
Fiz U>(JRL/Contrarian's) ID#331448: - Nick Chase's website is at http://nick.assumption.edu/HTML/ContraView.html
His last edition was from the end of October. However, his computer
Warmline has his comments as recently as November 26.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:08
JTF U>(Momentum of the US market - up is still possible - for a while --) ID#57232: - All: It is clear that we are all making a strong case for deflation ( or worse ) world-wide: Japan, Korea, SEAsia, mainland China, Brazil, Russia and derivative trades unwinding. It is very easy to get caught up in the talk of fundamentals, and loose sight of the fact that the mood of the market is not yet at the doomish state that we are at. I have learned the hard way that the Internet information source - though quicker than the local paper -- tends to be a bit too quick -- it takes time for the Titanic or QE II to turn.
My guess is that the US market will continue to rise up again in the month of December, or at least the next week. Only a major news shock during this time will prevent it, and prevent the gold doldrums ( given the downward motion of the CRY0 and the JOC ) .
I wonder -- when will Saddam announce his next demand, or will China announce their currency devaluation, and ask for help from the IMF? The devious approach would be to ask the IMF for help, and then refuse the attached strings after the maximum financial turmoil has been generated. China will still have eager foreign investors, no matter what happens.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:08
HepMeMoney_Hmm U>(Nazi Gold Conference) ID#402251: -
A story that will cause much grief as it's told,
The terrible truth of the Nazies and gold.
I present this link,if I may be so bold,
To help you good fellows,as the riddles unfold.
http://britain.nyc.ny.us/bis/fordom/other/970806db.htm
Do take some time and read what is said,
For many the criminal now lay dead.
As Hitler himself,lead fear to their heads,
The truth of the matter we should not dread.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:03
MoReGoLd U>(@weather) ID#348129: - Maybee this can cool you off, we have -3c and a snowstorm blowing.
You can send some heat up this way........ - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 21:00
SDRer__A U>(To: Another) ID#287280: - I have listened with attention
have learned
shall do
with thanks from level 2
to level 600,000
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:59
steady U>(Nikkei update) ID#285309: - So far impressive Nikkei rise, up over 17,000 !! 13% rise in the last 10 days. This game may go on for a few more years.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:54
sharefin U>(Taiwan's turn today) ID#284255: - Japan up +378 2.28%
Malasia down -2.42%
Taiwan down -5.59%
Korea down -0.43% - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:47
sharefin U>(How hot?) ID#284255: - Tolerant
The heat wave is still here, though abated.
Fires are still burning badly.
These fires will burn on and off over the whole summer.
Peaking over the hottest periods, during the hottest months.
This year could well go down in history for the fires yet to burn.
Speaking to my nephew in Christchurch, say the same thing.
Unseasonable hot weather.
Unusual but to be expected with the El Nino effect.
Johanesburg gold index chart.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/Johgold.gif - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:29
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - A reply,
Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:42
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD ( FUTURE OIL PRICES TO FOLLOW PRESENT
GOLD PRICES ) ID#431263:
Mr. GCH,
As a large tanker takes time to turn, so will the coming change
in oil values take time to see. We have seen the last of cheap
oil in US$ as the oil states are no longer taking paper gold! This
change in trading will have a great future impact on oil/gold/US$.
I think a large purchase of bullion was just made by them. It
should have been paper. The BIS must soon take a stand!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:27
MJb4u U>(comex ) ID#283199: - Could somebody please post the available comex gold , FWN has been off line since Nov.21st . Is this an indication of future problems ?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:11
Tantalus Rex U>() ID#295111: - JL: you're absolutley right when you say ... It seems that its hard to go wrong by accumulating gold at these low prices. We may not be at the low just yet, but we're not far off.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:10
Donald__A U>(Now trading) ID#26793: - Globex +350, Nikkei +200
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:09
Delphi U>(Donald__A) ID#258129: - It is an expensive operation - to move plant from US to Japan. And they still want to sell their cars in US. Investment to be covered, transportation cost - Toyota’s will be more expensive, don’t they?
Possibility to sell US Treasuries exist, but it is more for politicians to settle it down. And they will try to do it, for sure.
I am signing off - 2:10 am in Europe. Thanks for conversation
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 20:03
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - We read and hear only one side of the story. It comes
from those who can write and talk the loudest!
“They have sold massive amounts of gold for several
years now.” “It can only go lower and lower.”
I offer another side from another place. I ask not that
you believe but only that you consider, and follow this
voice for a later time.
The news writers speak of great loses and missed
investment opportunity by these holders of gold. I ask you,
have the loses been that great? The largest buyers of
the true physical sales are not traders, as the amount
they gather is small by their ways. This gold they buy
will outlive them and no doubt be passed on to others,
be they family or country. As oil has fallen, so has gold!
All is fair, all is as it should be.
But, the traders, these paper traders who have taken
much of the London side, they hold nothing! Who will
provide gold for them to keep? Of the many markets,
more gold now trades than exists!
To close,
A choice must be made now and it is for a simple mind.
Of the CBs that have a purpose to sell gold, do they sell
to cover LBMA and other traders? Or do they let the
paper gold market implode? Of those CBs that lend and
sell, they hold only 500m+/- ozs. If they sell all they have
it will not cover all and the other CBs may buy more.
To date the oil states have not voiced a problem as the
gold appears not to leave the CB valts! But, if they start
to cover the gold debt, the accounts will show, even before
additional open sales appear on the market. Now you know
why I do not predict a price. For ones of simple thought,
such as I “ gold will be repriced once in life, and that
will be much more than enough”.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:58
JRL U>(Donald) ID#244207: - Thanks for the info!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:52
Donald__A U>(@Delphi) ID#26793: - A couple of things. They could close the Toyota plant here to keep workers busy in Japan. The BOJ could sell their $300 billion in US Treasuries to prop up Japanese banks. This would boost interest rates in the US and tank the US stock market.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:48
vronsky U>(...follow the RATS!) ID#427357: - LONDON ( BBC ) : It was announced today that Barclays to close BZW share trading
Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market.
The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading
operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary.
A Seaman's Axiom: When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:48
Donald__A U>(@JRL This is the old site, new site down now) ID#26793: - http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/ContraView/about.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:45
Delphi U>(@Donald__A) ID#258129: - Sorry for mistyping, it is Thank You, not Tank You, of course
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:42
Delphi U>(@Donald_a) ID#258129: - Tank You for reply. In example with Toyota, what is wrong for US?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:38
Donald__A U>(@Delphi) ID#26793: - The problems that had been buried in Japanese banks came to light after the Basle Accord. These are rules of the BIS that specify capital requirements for all banks that participate in cross border transactions. The rules take effect in April, 1998. It appears that no Japanese bank will qualify. Thus if Toyota wants to send money to its US subsidiary it would have to arrange the transaction with a foreign bank in Japan that met the requirements. Much loss of face here.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:38
JRL U>(Cut to the Chase...) ID#244207: - Every month I try to locate Nick Chase's Contrarian View. It's a slippery little fellow and, sometimes, takes a bit of effort to find. Does anyone know whether a November issue is out there somewhere? And, if so, what's the url? Thanks.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:38
Donald__A U>(@Delphi) ID#26793: - The problems that had been buried in Japanese banks came to light after the Basle Accord. These are rules of the BIS that specify capital requirements for all banks that participate in cross border transactions. The rules take effect in April, 1998. It appears that no Japanese bank will qualify. Thus if Toyota wants to send money to its US subsidiary it would have to arrange the transaction with a foreign bank in Japan that met the requirements. Much loss of face here.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:32
vronsky U>(GOLD VERSUS THE DOLLAR) ID#427357: - Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, “If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.”
Of monumental import is his assertion that “...it must be
remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world
and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:32
tolerant1 U>(sharefin) ID#31868: - How are the fires? Things under or out of control?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:32
Donald__A U>(Troubled Mexican bank to close) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971127/mexican_state_run_ba_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:29
Delphi U>(Japan - wondering) ID#258129: - Japan has bear market since 1990. No visible influence on US or Europe markets till now. Why that supposed to change?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:26
Psilver Psyched U>(reply to JL) ID#216217: - Of the two choices, if you invest in gold, and your wrong, your a squashed bug. If you invest in silver and your right, you get all the benefit as silver goes along for the ride based upon the gold / silver ratio paradigm. If you invest in silver and you are wrong, doesn't matter because CBs don't have the same control as they haven't immense silver reserves. Simple supply and demand for the commodity will eventually rule. The silver supply will soon be exhausted without a drastic trend change.
Although I am a goldbug, the safest course has me think silver for new investments as this bug has already tread on too much! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:25
Donald__A U>($4.5 million in Nazi gold found in Brazil) ID#26793: - http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971128/odd/stories/nazis_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:17
Allen(USA) U>(Mo@To @ 16:58) ID#255190: - Well, I wonder what was said in the article. It may have been a 'If you're paranoid' article. Did it address the problem of everyone trying to get out at the same time? Most of these 'news' operations are like well run symphonies - every major story has a pattern that is repeated for the same type of story. A problem; what commentators are saying; what authorities are saying; what it means to you; rebutals from the fringe; the non-debate debate; latest breaking details; oh,my's; what are the implications; etc, etc. Crime stories. Politic stories. Corruption stories. Disaster stories. Each has its pattern which is faithfully 'played'. In the US most 'fresh' news only lasts 2 weeks at most.
What patterns do you see in the news in Canada?
Here its a business. You are delivered to the advertisers via their ability to get your attention. The news piece is just part of the show.
To me its seems unfortunate that there are so very few sources of decent information. I really appreciate Donald's, Steve's and NIck's contributions along with the many others who post so many articles from around the world. With luck and wits about us we are seeing, at least partially, what is really going on 'out there'. The difference between this and what is offered via TV and other media is astounding. 99% rely on the worst distortions of reality to inform their world. Yuk!!! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:13
sharefin U>(Beginning of the week) ID#284255: - Japan down -129 points
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 19:03
Delphi U>(Crash 1987 vs mini-crash 1997) ID#258129: - A chart
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:52
Tortfeasor U>(Barney) ID#36965: - Thanks Barney. I liked that plastic surgery joke. My 49ers took the big hit today. Next week it looks like your Vikes and my 49ers. Hmm!! Could be interesting. I am hoping that the bloodletting on the gold killing fields is sated and that we can see a little something which will make us metal heads stand up and take notice during this week. Gold is getting so much bad press that the move up and soon seems to be inevitable. But nothing is inevitable except Barry Switzer getting fired this year and congress raising taxes. I'm off for my evneing walk. Hopefully I'll come back to see the Orient buying the heck out of gold.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:49
sharefin U>(London's sharp fall) ID#284255: - London Exchange says will probe late index tumble
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971130/britain_stocks_1.html
LONDON, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - The London Stock Exchange said on Sunday it would investigate a sharp fall in the UK's blue chip FTSE 100 share index late on Friday, that led to fresh complaints about the operation of London's new trading system. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:46
Mikey U>() ID#347332: - TO GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD;
Packers 27 Vikings 17 2morrow night. Your cheesehead is losing
value? under $300 a cheese head now. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:44
sharefin U>(Wall of worry) ID#284255: - WALL ST WEEK AHEAD - Asia makes Wall St nervous
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971130/wall_st_week_ahead_1.html
Turbulent overseas markets have upset U.S. stocks and Wall Street will be alert to more unpleasant surprises that could batter the Dow, after problems with some Japanese financial institutions.
In addition, several key pieces of economic data due this week -- the employment report and a manufacturing index -- could sway stocks, analysts said, and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak at a dinner in New York on Tuesday.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:42
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD U>(FUTURE OIL PRICES TO FOLLOW PRESENT GOLD PRICES) ID#431263: - Kudlow says oil follows gold and that much lower prices for oil lie down the road for 1998! Tax cut for all Americans due to lower oil prices will mean a 10,000 Dow in 1998 and 15,000 Dow early in the next millenium! Cheaper gold for the Saudi's to flood the world with oil and keep the dollar strong during this engineered Asian crisis?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:37
223 U>(And maybe gold will too? Forward sales are strong in Oz) ID#263259: - http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/market/markets9.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:31
223 U>(Ho Ho! Silver's going to go up with the market! ()) ID#263259: - http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/market/markets2.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:30
JL U>(CBs currently reversing their disinvestment policies?) ID#253253: - Psilver Psyched, DA:
You've posted an excellemnt summary of the many thoughts and opinions expressed at this site concerning the current state of affairs with gold.
In regards to what's next for gold:
I believe DA correctly focuses our attention on the prospect that the currency crisis in Asia may be coming to an end shortly. If this is the case for the reasons pointed out by DA, then it would seem that all the capital that has fled Asia to the US TBONDS and Equity markets will dramatically decrease. The next event would then be that the US dollar and equivalent European Currencies such as DMARK would have to be devalued to come back in line with the devalued Asian currencies. The Asian economies with currrently strong GDPs will continue to expand and hedge positions will be taken in gold on an increasing bases to offset their large US Dollar denominated holdings. The CBs will see this ( are seeing this ) in advance, hence the reversal in their gold disinvestment policies. The smart money will have already accumulated ( presently accumulating ) their positions in gold before the surge in gold prices from all the short covering. I believe this could be taking place now just at the height of pessimism in gold. It would be necessary for the CBs to create the worst investment environment for gold before they quietly reverse their disinvestment policies. China is a good example of an Asian country who has reversed course and is now openly pursuing easy monetary policy to restimulate their economy. It seems that inflation could yet be the BIG SURPRIZE for 1998.
It seems that its hard to go wrong by accumulating gold at these low ( adjusted for inflation ) prices for gold and silver.
Thoughts/comments? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:28
Leland U>(Like a little monkey, I watch the big gorilla..(good re-read)) ID#316193: -
http://www.stormfront.org/1097/gold.htm - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:26
ROR U>(Golden Cheesehead) ID#35767: - I think you have hit on the plan. This is why they harp over and over again how great the US economy ies unemployment is really higher than an other industrialized country. Just like the Russians used to do about the Soviet economy ie tell a big enough lie often enough and people will believe. Their reality is not fact and global capital will realize this. L. Kudlow is the ultimate arrogant elitist who will hopefully be rebuked once our country returns to freedom for working people and less worship of capital.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:24
Gusto Oro U>(Puetz's puts.) ID#377235: - LBG2:
So what's the big difference between posting investment strategy here or suggesting here that the investment strategies of others who post here should not be followed? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:19
Barney U>(Tort @good joke) ID#260194: - While I'm waiting for the Asian markets to open tonight and for the
biggest beating the Cheeseheads are going to receive tomorrow night,
I thought I would pass along a little joke:
There was a married couple who were in a terrible accident. the woman's
face was burned severely. The doctor told the husband they couldn't
graft any skin from her body because she was so thin. The husband then
donated some of his skin...
However, the only place suitable to the doctor was from his buttocks.
After the surgery was completed, everyone was astounded at the woman's
new beauty.
She was alone with her husband one day and she wanted to thank him for
what he did. She said, Dear, I just want to thank you for everything
you did for me!! There is no way I could repay you!!!!
He replied, Oh don't worry, Honey, I get plenty thanks enough every
time your mother comes over and kisses you on your cheek!!!
Go Gold !! Go Vikings - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 18:16
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD U>(Just one more though on Kudlow) ID#431263: - Is America now TOO BIG TO FAIL!? Is America to be the ruler and the enforcer and the financier of the NEW WORLD ORDER ( Novus Ordo Saeculorum ) ?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:57
Donald__A U>(The Panic of 1819) ID#26793: - http://www.skyenet.net/~gerryr/1819.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:55
LGB2__A U>(Platinum American Eagle Sales set record for the metal.......(lease rate issue quote too)) ID#316409: - U.S. Mint has reported that as of Nov. 12, 85,000+ ounces of Platinum American Eagles have sold ( in the few months they've been on sale ) , surpassing the highest annual record for previous Platinum coin sales in North America set in 1988. ( Other coins being the Platinum Koala, Maple, Noble, etc. )
Sales of Platinum bullion Eagles have outpaced predictions said U.S. Mint director Phillip Diehl. ( Quoted in a WSJ article ) The mint is buying Platinum through a strategy of forward sales contracts, due to supply issues.
Diehl also said that without this strategy, Diehl is quoted as saying We
d have to leave the Platinum, and with lease rates getting as high as 100% earlier this year, that becomes prohibitve, you can't afford to pay high lease rates. It's crippling to the financial viability of the program. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:54
GOLDEN CHEESEHEAD U>(Larry Kudlow's Golden Tongue-Slip) ID#431263: - Larry Kudlow made an important statement on Business Insiders Saturday night ( to be repeated for anyone interested at 6:30 PM EDT tonight on CNBC ) that Ronald Reagan should be remembered for making the US Dollar as good as gold once again. His statement was met with incredulity by the other panelists, but it struck me that Kudlow was cut off in his remark to go on station break before another topic was to come up after the break! Was this a tacit admission by Kudlow who is about as mainstream Wall Street Bullscheiss as you can get ( next to Joe Battipaglia ) that the powers that be have now succeeded in making the US dollar a credible proxy for gold so that the CB's of the world need only keep US dollars in reserve. Might his statement be interpreted to mean that the CB's of the world have now agreed that the US DOLLAR will remain the world standard reserve currency regardless of its obvious overcreation as the lesser of two evils, the other being the growing shortage of gold and the need to keep world investor psychology negative on gold and hooked on paper? Could this ASIAN shakeout and competetive currency devaluation and decoupling from the US dollar be the ultimate insider power play to bankrupt ASIA into accepting ( through the auspices of the IMF and World Bank ) US economic hegemony over now desperate foreign productive capacity? Will corporate America now be in a position to gobble up ASIAN productive capacity for pennies on the dollar in much the same way as the robber barons did of US capacity in the 1930's? Is the ultimate plan to so decimate Japan Inc. economically that Japan finally be forced to submit to US political control simply to survive? Will China also be forced before the end of this crisis ( glitch ) to also submit to US political and economic control? Has this whole Asian crisis been engineered by the powers that be to ensure the ultimate triumph of the WEST over the future destiny of the world, politically, economically, ecologically, spiritually, etc? Is this the economic equivalent of a nuclear first strike against the growing power of Asia and its future potential to engulf western ( read US ) economic and political supremacy? Has the US dollar now supplanted gold as the ultimate store of value? Is the US dollar now as good as gold as Kudlow suggests, or might it even now be BETTER THAN GOLD because it pays interest in US dollars? Is this why Kudlow and Battipaglia ar so super bullish on US Dollar-denominated assets? Is the fix already in? Anybody out there in Kitcoland care to enlighten us on these points with his/her insights and/or opinions? I, for one, find his comment most intriguing!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:45
SDRer__A U>(Speed@17:37) ID#28593: - Some days it looks like the IMF is the only one left
with pockets! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:41
Donald__A U>(What if the stock market collapses.) ID#26793: - http://www.culturalbridge.com/capital.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:41
LGB2__A U>(@Sharefin (Nick) .......re your Reverance for Puetz......and your advice that I shouldn't advise ) ID#316409: - Nick, You're sorely mistaken in your suppositions re Puetz's advice on S & P Put options and my own take on same. I don't know where you got the idea I was giving investment advice, read my post again.
I told Puetz that HE might want to consider reversing his exceedingly bad financial advice to investors re S & P Put options, which as we all know, has proven to be consistently some of the worst investment advice anyone could have followed so far this year ( not even counting his advice to date from previous years, or his consistently bad takes on the DOW and his weekly crash predictions, and how much potential gain that would cost anyone following such advice ) . Your post said ...
sharefin ( Advice on my pet puts? ) ID#284255:
LGB
Taking advise ( and giving ) on investments over the net is dangerous.
If I was to do as you say and dump my puts on Monday,
And the dow then traded down over the next two weeks strongly.
( Indicators are pointing to a very high probability )
I would have to think that your advice was exceedingly bad.
And had caused me to loose lots of money.
It is up to the individual to decide on their own trading strategy.
To take and measure their own risks.
And to not listen to every Bull/Bear forcaster.
You are not a certified advisor and should leave your advise where it belongs.
IMHO
Now Nick, I have zero regard for whether someone is a certified advisor, since as we all know, many of them have turned out to give extremely bad advice that has cost investors many millions. Many more have turned out to be sheisters, snake oil sellers, useless Newsletter peddlers, or talking head tokens to be used for the medias pleasure when they want to show the whacko fringe of analysts
The only measure of the validity of advice is it's whether it pans out to have a reasonably good accuracy relative to subsequent events. Puetz has about the worst record of anyone I have ever read, whether quoted in Barron's or no.
I'm quite confident that if you take the totality of every bit of investment advice I've given on the internet and compared it to Puetz's advice, his record as opposed to mine would be LAUGHABLY bad. Couldn't really be any worse in fact.
Of course the same could be said for comparing Puetze's silly Full Moon crash prognostications with any real analysts who have been giving good market advice for decades such as Bob Brinker. ( who has an extraordinary record of accuracy with his market calls, both on the buy and on the sell side )
So now I'm supposed to revere Puetz as an expert Because he's certified And refrain from giving my own opnions based on sound fiundamentals that have served investors well for 20 years as Bearish fool analysts led their followers down the garden path to financial ruin? Puuhhleaaase. Don't make me laugh any harder, makes my sides ache as it is!!!
IMNHO - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:41
SDRer__A U>(One of the more ellusive mysterious of our time...) ID#28593: - Psilver Psyched--To whom will/can the US sell their debt?
One of the truly non-linear problems seeking a solution: postulate
swaps between Japan and oil producers using US bonds to purchase
giving Japan a price break, maybe the interest strip as a premium
to some middle-man ( IMF ) ?
I've built several possible swap-lines ( because I feel therein
lies the vector of SDR, gold, oil and US debt; but the truth is
I don't know.
What speculations might you bring to the table? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:37
Speed U>(IMF has deep pockets) ID#29082: - WITH AN ESTIMATED $198 billion in assets, the IMF is clearly not scraping the bottom of the barrel. Neither, however, can it have expected its resources to have been put quite so vigorously to use in the last few months. Whole article is at:
http://www.msnbc.com/news/126107.asp - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:26
223 U>(Question about US Treasury purchases?) ID#263259: - Several days ago there was a post commenting on US treasury purchases of gold to make up for the amount which had been sold as coins this year. Does anyone have any leads on how much they are buying? I guess it depends on who is in charge, congress or the prezz...
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:21
223 U>(AE_Calgary, too bad you figured it out!) ID#263259: - I was going to offer you spot x 12 per pound for all the gold you could send me, ( weighed on my bathroom scale ) !!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:14
kiwi U>(sign o' the times....line up the scapegoats) ID#194311: - U.S. brokers D.H. Blair under investigation-paper
NEW YORK ( Reuters ) - The Wall Street brokerage house D.H.
Blair Investments is under investigation by the Manhattan
District Attorney's office for allegedly defrauding investors
out of millions of dollars by manipulating trading in new stock
issues, according to Sunday's New York Post.
The brokerage house is allegedly also being accused of
aggressive ``cold calling'' telemarketing campaigns and
controlling pricing, the Post says. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:12
Psilver Psyched U>((new_debt_anyone)) ID#216217: - I have seen a few discussions about whether the Japanese will sell US T-Bills. Let's put that aside for a moment. The number one debtor nation of the world needs a constant supply of buyers for newly issued debt. Who is going to buy next month or next year? Surely not those who normally buy. These folks will be struggling with their own financial problems.
Won't rates have to rise? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:10
223 U>(Puetz, amounts of unmined metals:) ID#263259: - Thanks. Now to figure out what the relative prices will be in five years and buy lots of the cheapest one. : ) That will be easier said than done.______
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:10
LGB2__A U>(@ Puetz, Platinum rarity and supply) ID#310407: - Puetz you wrote... I believe platinum is rarer than gold, but the conversion from kilograms to tonnes will have to be made to confirm that.
It's about 20 times rarer worldwide if you believe some of the figures concerning Russian and Australian unmined reserves, etc. All the above ground Platinum ever mined would fit in a cube of less than 25 feet square. Further there are no major above ground reserves overhanging the market, unlike with Gold which as we know may have as much as a 22 year supply in CB reserves alone, at current consumption rates, even not considering production. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 17:06
Tortfeasor U>(Joke of the Day) ID#36965: - We goldbugs are like the lion in the following story in dealing with paper tigers. Hi Mo.
A lion in the Albuquerque zoo was lying in the sun licking its arse
when a visitor turned to the keeper and said, that's a docile
old thing isn't it?
No way, said the keeper, its the most ferocious beast in the
zoo. Why just an hour ago it dragged a Texan into the cage and
completely devoured him.
Hardly seems possible said the astonished visitor, but why
is it lying there licking its arse?
The poor thing is trying to get the taste out of its mouth. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:58
Mo in To U>(When to Panic) ID#347205: - To Allen ( USA ) ,
I read your 12:46 post with interest ( re: not to panic ) . You may be interested to know that last Sunday's front page in the Toronto Star [Toronto, Canada] was plastered with , Leaders tell investors not to panic at Asian summit. This week's Sunday business section had on the front page, When to dump that mutual fund. Hmmmmm, are they trying to tell us something, or preaching to the already converted?
Mo in To
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:57
Donald__A U>(China Boom, then Bust) ID#26793: - China Goes for Boom — and Bust
9-15 Sept.
Having tightened credit to cool down its overheating economy, China has now reversed monetary
policy by cutting interest rates. The result will be an economic hangover, the intensity of which will
be determined by the extent of the country’s monetary binge. It seems only yesterday that loose
monetary policy fuelled a boom that saw China’s rpi peak at 27 per cent on October 1994; real
estate prices explode, especially in the coastal regions, and an eruption of febrile speculation. The
inevitable monetary squeeze saw output fall, unemployment rise and the rate of inflation fall, with the
rpi reaching 7.7 per cent last April. So having barely recovered from one binge, the government
now embarks on another by cutting interest rates.
It appears that a 2.5 per cent fall in consumption combined with rising unemployment and a 50 per
cent increase in losses by state companies motivated the government to slacken the monetary reins.
This decision was debated at meeting in Beidaihe. Subsequent leaks suggest that the decision
exceeded the central bank’s more conservative proposal. It seems that some officials are not only
disturbed at the inflationary consequences of premature rate cuts but also their discriminatory
structure. I’m not surprised.
The deepest cuts are for long-term time deposits: from 1.98 per cent on 2 year deposits to 3.06
per cent on 5 year deposits, while the savings rate was cut by 0.99 per cent. Rates on 3 to 5-year
loans for fixed asset investment were cut by 3.24 percent and 1 to 3-year loans were down 2.16
per cent; rates on working capital fell by only 0.54 per cent for 6 months and 0.9 per cent for 1
year.
The size and structure of the cuts have been welcomed by many commentators as stimulating both
consumption and investment. This is paranoid. Investment ( growth ) is always at the expense of
consumption. Therefore any policy that stimulates consumption must reduce the rate of investment
and vice versa. It should be obvious that such policies are mutually exclusive. One policy must
eventually yield to the other. If, for example, consumption is stimulated then factors that would have
gone into investment ( higher stages of production ) will be directed into consumption by consumer
spending.
China’s previous monetary binge created a mass of credit that misdirected production. The result
was that companies invested and expanded production in response to the newly created credit. By
lowering interest rates below their market level, these companies were deceived into thinking that
there was more capital ( real savings ) available than existed. They then embarked on projects for
which all the necessary capital for their successful completion was not available. ( These projects
were really maininvestments ) . The economy overheated, bottlenecks emerged, raw materials and
capital goods shortages became acute, prices rose and speculation in real estate took off as surplus
credit found another exit.
When the government finally applied the monetary breaks, the mainvestments revealed themselves
as idle resources. The rising unemployment and falling production and consumption are, therefore,
the consequences of the preceding boom. The post-boom period ( depression ) is really an
adjustment/recovery process that liquidates the malinvestments and brings society’s
savings/investment ratio back into balance. To accelerate recovery the government should actually
encourage more saving, allow the market to determine the interest rate structure and keep a
responsible rein on the money supply. Fortunately, China has a very flexible labor market and a
huge reservoir of able entrepreneurs who are able to not only weather the crisis but exploit its
opportunities.
Forcing interest rates below their market levels will only retrigger the boom-bust cycle, leaving the
country politically and socially bruised. However, this might be a good time to look at Chinese real
estate again. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:57
oris U>(Just a veru simple idea) ID#238422: - 1.If CB's were lending relatively large amount of gold for some time,
they were actually hoping to get it back at some time.
2.With all this mess in financial/stock markets it would be logical to
assume that price of gold would rise.
3.Higher gold prices would make it much more difficult for those who
borrowed to buy and return this gold to CB's.
So, what is a normal attitude of normal businessman who gave a loan
to somebody and feels that
this somebody may have a problem paying back?
A normal attitude
is TO HELP somebody to pay back. Sometimes it is the only way of
collecting money back - not to destroy, not to sue, but to help.
Is it possible that CB's are trying to talk the price of gold down
in order
to ease the problem of being paid back? Every time gold logically
should go up because markets/currencies are going down, somebody
from the some CB
says something and gold fails to rise.
Is it possible that some CB's went a little bit too far and lended a
little bit to much of their gold reserves, and are now trying to fix
a big holes in their books, using a whole bunch of shortsellers
and somebody who is silently buiyng a large part of this sold short
gold to be returned back to those CB's,
so some accounting holes on their books could be plugged?
Just a very simplified theory....
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:56
Blonde U>(Commodity prices) ID#263278: - JTF, take a look at the JOC index on MW97 in this week's Barrons. It isn't pretty.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:55
Carl U>(China says they will not devalue to compete. (next speculator target?)) ID#333131: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971130/china_yuan_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:47
Miro U>(ROR@contract labor) ID#347457: - ROR, I agree with your assessment that Short term gain long term may be pain. The US executives for a long time manage from short term point of view and why not when that’s how they are compensated through stock options, compensation tied to current company profit, etc. Economy looks good but for how long?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:46
Carl U>(South Korea and IMF have agreement) ID#333131: - http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971130/news/stories/imf_7.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:45
JTF U>(@Home -- logging off for son so he can use computer!) ID#57232: - All: Will log in later --
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:42
JTF U>(@) ID#57232: - SDRer: How about this - since gold is the currency par excellence, it will be leased or sold to protect the paper currencies and stock market.
Of course gold has little value in modern times, according to the official mouthpieces. That is precisely why the price of gold is going down -- because the powers that be have to flood the financial markets with gold just to keep everything else afloat!
Seems to me that the powers that be have been through this little charade many times before. De ja vu all over again!
I wish I figured this out in Noveber of 1996, and not in Sept of 1997 when I began reading Kitco posts!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:37
Oliver U>(War...) ID#65207: - For a change in today`s ounces and tons..
Foods fo thoughts:
Wars and the threat of war are
seen as
evidence that capitalism's only way of continuing to exist is by destruction, it
is
suggested that if it can not save itself by other methods capitalism will plunge
us
into a war.
http://jefferson.village.virginia.edu/%7Espoons/aut_html/auf2dec1.htm
For most versions of the theory the change from mature to declining capitalism is
saidto have occurred at a time around the First World War. The present form of
capitalism is then characterised by declining or decaying features. Features
identified with this change are the shift from laissez faire to monopoly capitalism,
the dominance of finance capital, the increase in state planning, war production and
imperialism. Monopoly capitalism indicates the growth of monopolies, cartels and
the concentration of capital which has now reached the point of giant multinationals
disposing of more wealth than small countries. At the same time in the phenomenon
of finance capital, large amounts of capital are seen to escape linkage to particular
labour processes and to move about in search of short term profits. In the increase
in state planning the state becomes interpenetrated with the monopolies in various
ways such as nationalisation and defence spending - this is capital getting organised.
This planning is the state trying to regulate the workings of capitalism in the
interests of the big firms/monopolies. Statification is seen as evidence of decay
because it shows the objective socialisation of the economy snarling at the bit of
capitalist appropriation; it is seen as capitalism in the age of its decline desperately
trying to maintain itself by socialistic methods. The state spending and intervention
is seen as a doomed attempt to avert crises which constantly threaten the system.
War production is a particularly destructive form of state spending, where large
amounts of the economy are seen to be taken up by essentially unproductive
expenditure. This is closely related to imperialism which is seen as the characteristic
of capitalism in the age of its decline. The 'epoch' is in fact said to be initiated by
the division of the world between the great powers who have since fought two
world wars to redistribute the world market. Wars and the threat of war are seen as
evidence that capitalism's only way of continuing to exist is by destruction, it is
suggested that if it can not save itself by other methods capitalism will plunge us
into a war.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:32
JTF U>(@Home) ID#57232: - ROR: You may be right -- if the Saudi move was orchestrated by the powers that be to hold down the price of oil due to dollar inflation.
I don't know. A more likely possibility is simply that there is an expectation of excess oil supplies in the immediate future. The weather prediction is for a warm US winter this year ( ElNino ) .
Oversupply tends to cause more over production, to keep revenues up when prices go ( or are expected to go ) down. Just happened with computer memory chips, which went from $20/meg to nearly $2/meg.
I doubt that oil will be a good short-term investment unless there is a war in the Middle East with 1/3 of the world in a deflationary trend. I do realize that oil demand is relatively inelastic in the developed world, but more elastic in areas not fully developed.
Comments from the Guru's?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:31
jsh U>(Japanese Market - start time) ID#254167: - Would appreciate it if someone would tell me what time the Japanese stock market opens ( US Eastern Time ) .
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:23
SDRer__A U>(Posts we can lean on...) ID#287280: - Allen@14:36
Quality Thought-Ware; you have a WINNER! When's the IPO?
JTF@15:55
You certainly listed the most salient stages!
For myself, I want leaders like this:
Yes, gold, whose nature does not alter...and which has no nationality...has, eternally and universally, been regarded as the unaltered currency par excellence.
This man, at a little later time ( circa 1970's I believe ) looked
around and said he was now living in the Age of Mediocrity.
Goodness knows what he'd think of today's bunch!
Oh, who was it? Charles de Gaulle. Who, in the ironic play of history,
was 'sorta' responsible for Nixon divorcing us from the gold standard.
Allen, when you do the IPO, best not go to MS--I think they're in for
a bumpy ride. They'll be an Indicator of TRUTH to watch this coming
week. IMHO. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:20
Puetz U>(bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167: - Thanks AE_Calgary!!! 1 tonne = 1000 kg. So gold and the platinum group ( I think this includes palladium ) are approximately equally rare.
Platinum group: 66,000 tonnes un-mined.
Gold: 61,000 tonnes un-mined. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:17
JTF U>(The other RR -- Ronald Reagan, that is) ID#57232: - Donald: I'm sure this RR's comment was genuine, and not PR hype! Always did enjoy his comments when he was president -- nothing seemed to bother him. None of the current political leaders seem to be able to pull off the Ronald Reagan says don't worry - type announcement.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:17
ROR U>(JTF re OIL PRICE) ID#35767: - If oil prices fall then according to the ANOTHER Gold for Oil deals Gold must be ready to rise to compensate. Maybe why they have attacked gold so recently with aforeknowledge of this development. Just caught your post and had to respond. Comments, Thanks.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:14
NJ U>(Tonne) ID#352177: - 32150 troy Ounces= 1 Metric Tonne
1 Troy Oz=31.1 Grams - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:14
Puetz U>(bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167: - 223: Here are known global volumes of un-mined metals as reported by the US Department of the Interior ( in the 1997 World Almanac ) :
Platinum Group metals: 66,000,000 kilograms ( conversion to tonnes? )
Gold: 61,000 metric tonnes
Silver: 420,000 metric tonnes
Copper: 610,000,000 metric tonnes
Nickel: 110,000,000 metric tonnes
Zinc: 330,000,000 metric tonnes
i.e. -- there's 7 times as much un-mined silver as gold.
I believe platinum is rarer than gold, but the conversion from kilograms to tonnes will have to be made to confirm that. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:14
vronsky U>() ID#427357: -
LONDON ( BBC: It was announced today that Barclays to close BZW share
trading
Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market.
The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading
operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary.
A Seaman's Axiom: When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:13
ROR U>(MIRO @Contract Labor) ID#35767: - Could any of this have to do with Exec stk options and keeping the stk price up at any cost? Short term gain long term may be pain. I think this temp work force thing has given the economy a false look of strength. I think the skyrocketing ( though hardly noticed in the media ) bankruptcies and housing difficulties tell the real story.
It wasnt to long ago the media was singing the praises of Asia! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:09
JTF U>(Commodity prices to drop? Deflation ahead?) ID#57232: - All: I think we should watch commodity prices this coming week very carefully. The OPEC decision is bearish for Cry0, and if there is any downish market turmoil, gold stocks will head south.
I'm not so sure that silver bullion will stay up under these circumstances, despite what we all hope. I do know that silver production is inelastic, and 2/3 of silver production is tied to copper, zinc and lead production. During deflationary times when copper,zinc and lead production head south, silver prices might actually rise. Are we at the point where all silver stocks are critically low, or just comex stocks?
Sooner or later, we should expect to see a dramatic drop in commodity prices if deflation is just ahead. Unless El Nino does a number on the grains, we might have a bit of a wait for commodity prices to bottom and gold/gold stocks to rise.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:08
Donald__A U>(@JTF) ID#26793: - You have to add another one to your list. Was it Ronald Reagan who went on TV in 1987 and said if I had any money I'd buy stocks Turned out to be good advice.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:06
AE_Calgary U>(Measures mistake - new numbers) ID#246182: - Sorry folks. I made an error when I assumed that
1 troy pound was equal to 1 avoirdupois pound. Only the grain
is the same in the two systems; so my last post is wrong as many of
you have probably alrady figured out.
The precision used here is not the same as that used by Kitco and requested by Jung,
but it is close.
Hope the numbers are useful to someone.
1 kilogram = 2.20462 lbs. ( assuming gravitational constant of g=9.80665 m/s/s )
1 troy ounce = 480 grains
1 avoirdupois ( av. ) ounce = 437.5 grains
1av. lb. = 16 av. ounces = 7000 grains
1 troy lb. = 12 troy ounces = 5760 grains
1 ton ( short ton ) = 2000 av. lbs. = 2000 * 7000 = 14 million grains
1 tonne 1000kg = 1000kg * 2.20462 lbs/kg = 2204.62 lbs. = 15.432340 million grains
So there are 14000000grains/ ( 480 grains/troy ounce ) = 29166.67 troy ounces per ton
Or
14000000/437.5 = 32000 av. ounces per ton
AND...
15432340/480 = 32150.708 troy ounces per tonne
OR
15432340/437.5 = 35273.92 av. ounces per tonne
There are 0.00220462 av. lbs. per gram which means there are 15.43234 grains per gram.
Therefore, ( 480 grains / t.ounce ) / ( 15.43234 grains / gram ) = 31.10351 grams / t.ounce )
What a mess.
I'm going to put up my Christmas lights. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:06
ROR U>(@OLD GOLD) ID#35767: - Article you posted by Geider, I could not have said it better myself. Bravo!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:04
Puetz U>(bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167: - To those of you at Kitco who use the term: Tally Ho.
I will have you know that the parliment in England yesterday declared hunting with hounds as illegal -- and a criminal offense! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:04
kiwi U>(cherokee) ID#194311: - that would be priced in barrels not dollars, right?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:04
Donald__A U>(Hong Kong banks are vulnerable) ID#26793: - http://www.smithers.co.uk/standard7.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 16:02
Puetz U>(bpuetz@holli.com) ID#222167: - John Disney: You made a good point about how many gold-loans have been repaid. I have had the impression that most gold-loans were either long-term, or short-term loans that were constantly rolled over. But I can't say that this is gospel. If that's the case, then most gold-loans haven't been repaid.
You also make a good point that central banks would make it a lot easier on all of us if they would report not only what they own, but have much has been leased, and how much of what they own is still actually in their vaults.
It's ironic that the US government won't report these figures, since it's not their gold in the first place. It's gold that depositors placed on storage at Federal Reserve member banks -- for safe keeping. The government the created a fraud by over-issuing gold-receipts. And then stole it from depositors ( by refusing to convert paper to gold in 1933 ) when the depositors asked for their gold back during the Depression years. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:58
Miro U>(@ROR and labor market) ID#347457: - ROR, agree and disagree ;- )
My response was focused on decrease of help wanted ads this weekend. In that regard I stand behind my just a seasonal variance. However, there is a trend which indicates not so good overall condition in labor market. You mentioned 100 resumes with only few having desired skills. What is happening is that companies are looking for exact match for skill requirements so that they do not have to spend any money on developing employee skills. It correlates closely to down and right sizing and cutting budgets ( including employee development budgets ) left and right so that the profit line is maintained at a desirable level.
This also means that labor is treated as a commodity - you are good today but no so desirable tomorrow when requirements change. I’ll milk your today skills as much as I can, at the same time I won’t give you opportunity to develop some skills which may be desirable in the future. I am willing to pay high $ for your today skills but at the same time I am screwing your future potentials.
I work in a high tech industry and fight this battle all the time, trying to ask why are you so narrow minded when hiring? Well, contracts come and go. Contract requires this specific set of skills and I need it right away - don’t have a time and money to train. So what will you do with that person when contract is over?. Well, we will worry about it when the time comes. If there is no immediate contract which will require this specific skill we will have to let the person go - there is no budget to keep people on overhead until that skill is required.
So there is a permanent shortage of people ( immediate shortage, not a long range shortage ) . Accounting and P/L drives everything, including human resources management. I do believe that this will eventually turn against companies a big time and it’ll be the part of downturn in the US economy. You either have to change this trend ( this will cost you money and result in decreased profit ) or you will continue in this trend of need today but no value tomorrow and you’ll pay dearly for labor resource and many times you’ll fail in contract obligation because you don’t have people to staff it ( again lost contracts and decrease profit )
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:55
JTF U>(@Home - Don't Panic!) ID#57232: - Allen: I like your posts!
I think there is a generic hierarcy of public announcements.
First: The complete denial phase -- silence.
--This is when supposedly only the insiders know, and the News leaks have been plugged--
Second: There is the beginning crisis everything is well in hand phase.
-- rare public news leaks --
Third: there is no reason for concern
-- article in the Washington Post ( or equivalent ) by a Star Journalist
Fourth: A meeting with the newsmedia will be at ---
-- Crisis clearly evident to the active reader--
Fifth: Calm the public phase - Don't panic
-- Crisis evident to virtually everyone --
Sixth: Pass the blame phase - The responsible parties have been arrested
-- After the meltdown scapegoat chosen--
I'm sure my fellow Kitcoites would be able to add to the list of public announcements - I probably overlooked several stages.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:49
Donald__A U>(Repost of article Allen(USA) just mentioned. It's time to panic.) ID#26793: - http://www.smithers.co.uk/independent.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:48
panda U>(Want Ads) ID#30116: - ROR, Blonde -- Holiday hiring is always slow. HR ( Human Resources ) people are busy with holiday plans for their families just like the rest of people in their company. Hence, no one really wants to interview over the holidays and most employees seeking another job don't want to lose their paid holidays during this period. So, everyone just kind of ignores this period unless there is an urgent position to fill. Watch what happens when the New Year passes. January and February budgeting at most companies will give you a good clue as to the state of the employment market. If there are a lot of job fairs in January along with fat signing bonuses....
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:41
Haggis__A U>(Supply, Demand and ) ID#398105: -
G'Day from Kalgoorlie.
I read with interest a posting by SKYLARK concerning the non-reporting of excess gold.
A possible scenario....
Given that Rothchild control an array of operating banks, mining companies etc, they set the gold price in London twice daily, and that they have been the controlling interest in gold mining in South Africa for 100 years which has produced the order of 1200 million ounces of gold, with the subsequent implications concerning the accumulation of this wealth - could it be possible that they are actually selling the gold within the framework of their global operations to themselves. That is, the gold is NOT actually being sold ?!
The combined control and power that this Gold Cartel has is astounding.
Aye,
Haggis
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:20
themissinglink__A U>(Federal Debts) ID#373403: - Since Federal Debts are financed by printing bonds and pulling savings out of the private sector into the federal spending sector, there is really no money created, right? Instead, if MV=PQ where ( M=Money Supply V=Velocty of Money P=Prices and Q=Quantity or Economic Output ) then this proccess of deficit spending/debt creation is essentially the increase in the Velocity of money and hopefully the increase in Economic Output.
Besides that there is this unpayable debt which makes our federal budget extremely sensitive to inflation/interest rate rises the only inflation this could cause is the sale to foreign governments who may have printed up the money for purchases of our debt.
The long term negative then is that we will owe the money long after what was purchase has lost it's value. This is especially true because little deficit spending went to infrastructure improvement. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:17
Jung U>(AE Calgary) ID#237164: - Thanks for the post.
Bart says there are 14.5836 troy oz per pound.
Are there two definitions for 'pound'?
Thank you for the definitions to erudite terms such as tonne, ton, short ton, long ton. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:10
Crunch U>(Ozs. in metric tonne) ID#344290: - Engineer's Manual by Hudson
metric tonne = 1,000 kg
1 kilogram = 1000 grams
1 troy Oz. = 31.1 grams
Metric tonne = 32,154.34 troy oz.
checkmate - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 15:08
ROR U>(MIRO,Wash Post Want Ads) ID#35767: - I posted re the shocking decrease in want ads in the area which fellow No. Va suburbanite Miro states is due to the holiday. I didnt think of it but maybe is partially right. It was just the size of the drop that caught me. Anyway with respect to the economy in Fairfax, Va.which I think is the wealthiest county in America it is not so good for most people. If however, you have the absolute correct technical skills you can make a good living. Miro refers to an article about jobs here in the Sunday POST. He failed to mention that hundreds of resumes were received but few had the skills. Translation if your a brain surgeon you've got the job otherwise bag groceries at safeway ( thats the real job creation ) . Housing prices here are in decline except for trophy homes in McLean or Great Falls. There are many part time and low level jobs which keep the picture looking good. Without the Feds this place would be in the tank. I live in Oakton and work in Tysons. Response from Miro welcomed.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:56
Crunch U>(Barrick Gold's hedging of future gold sales looks like they can't lose) ID#344290: - Noted in 1994 Annual Report Barrick can sell at spot or the hedged price whichever is most advantageous ( page 34 ) . Barrick can defer deliveries against contracts on foward sales up to 10 years. This all leads me to believe that borrowings by producers from CBs is slight if any. What would a mining company give as collateral in return for a few tonnes of gold? Paper, I don't see that - cash, why borrow gold to raise cash if you already have it. I just can't see gold producers borrowing gold, my hunch is that it is speculators, fabricators or financiers almost wholly.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:55
Jung U>(Speed and others, thanks) ID#237164: - SPEED reminded me that Bart already posts the conversions between
oz and g ... so he does ... on his web page. A key conversion to
all the tonnes and kilo is 1 troy oz = 31.10348g. That satisfies
my need for presision. Thanks, all.
Now to the question at hand ... what's the end game? How does it
play out, after the currency crisis and great attention to gold and
its value? So, say that gold price sores to $2000/oz ... that's
$64 per gram. Then what? Does the government confiscate at that
price? or does it confiscate at $300 per oz ... $9.65 per g ?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:39
MoReGoLd U>(@Hope no-one here is long Oil: The deal was more bearish than expected,) ID#348286: - Oil Prices Expected to Slide on OPEC Deal
8.38 a.m. ET ( 1338 GMT ) November 30, 1997
JAKARTA Oil prices are expected to fall when trading resumes on Monday following an OPEC decision to hoist the group's output ceiling by almost ten percent, analysts said.
OPEC ministers on Saturday agreed to the group's first big increase in output limits in four years — hiking the group's production limit to 27.5 million barrels per day ( bpd ) for the first six months of next year.
The deal was more bearish than expected, said Nigel Saperia of Banker's Trust International in London, referring to industry expectations that OPEC would agree a new output ceiling closer to 27 million bpd.
I would think this means 50 cents to one dollar off crude prices next year, with true production going up to around 28.5 million bpd, Saperia added.
Nauman Barakat, of Prudential Bache in New York, agreed: It's bearish because the market was expecting less. I think the reaction will be thumbs down.
Analysts said the OPEC-inspired price slide could be prolonged barring unforeseen obstacles to a renewal of United Nations Resolution 986, which allows Iraq to sell about $2 billion worth of oil into world markets every six months in exchange for food and medicine.
On balance this may lead to lower prices if the Iraqi food-for-oil deal is rolled over smoothly, said Mehdi Varzi of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson.
OPEC member Iraq on Saturday said it accepted in principle an extension of the deal, despite its reported reservation on the implementations of the arrangement. The current phase of the plan expires on December 5.
Libyan Oil Minister Abdulla al-Badri said he expected oil prices to fall by a barrel after the new agreement but most of his OPEC colleagues felt prices would remain relatively stable, or even rise over time due to growing world demand.
But Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer and exports sees key world benchmark North Sea Brent crude averaging around $20 a barrel next year, steady at levels over the past 18 months.
The Saudis, whose new quota is some 800,000 bpd higher than their previous limit, think world oil markets will easily soak up higher OPEC production in 1998 despite quota leakage, a senior Gulf source said.
He said OPEC's new ceiling, plus leakage from those exceeding quotas, would probably mean about 28-28.5 million bpd of OPEC oil in the market.
...the market will take it easily. We expect about $20 for Brent with a dollar either side, he said.
Analysts said the new deal meant the kingdom would bear much of the burden of stabilizing prices in the future. Most other OPEC producers are already pumping flat out and Saudi Arabia is one of the few countries in the world with ample unused capacity.
The deal puts a lot of onus and responsibility on to Saudi Arabia, said Bob Finch, head of trading at Vitol SA.
Iran, a traditional price hawk which was believed to be favoring a less expansive ceiling. Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he did not expect prices to fall as a result of the new agreement, while Kuwait's minister said he thought prices would hold for the time being.
Finch said the extent of any price declines would also depend in large degree on how closely OPEC adhered to its new ceiling.
OPEC agreements have been undermined by rampant quota cheating in the past with the group's estimated production in October topping 27.8 million bpd, well above its old 25.033 million ceiling.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:36
Allen(USA) U>(You darn goldbugs better just stop it ...) ID#255190: - Everything is JUST FINE. Our economy is STRONG. Record employment. Record everything. We are living in the best of times with a brilliant future ahead of us. Nothing will ever go wrong. Just look around. Do you see any problems? So why do you keep on trying to find problems. Problems, problems, problems: that's all you ever think about. If there are any problems we will tell you what they are and what to think and do about them.
( This advertisement brought to you by Heads and Suits the newest retail outlet for quality thought-ware. One size fits all! ) - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:33
AE_Calgary U>(Measures) ID#25555: - I went to my dictionary for this stuff.
Troy weight: a system of weights in use for precious metals and gems ( formaly also for bread, grain, etc. ) : 24 grains = 1 pennyweight; 20 pennyweigths = 1 ounce; 12 ounces = 1 pound. ...
ton: a unit of weight, equivalent to 2000 pounds avoirdupois ( short ton ) in the U.S. and 2240 pound avoirdupois ( long ton ) in Great Britain. ...
tonne: ( metric ton ) a unit of 1000 kilograms, equivalent to 2204.62 avoirdupois pounds.
Therefore, the following results are evident:
1 ton of gold = 2000lbs * 12 troy ounces/lb = 24000 troy onces OR
1 ton of gold = 2000lbs * 16 ( normal ) ounces/lb = 32000 noraml ounces
1 tonne of gold = 2204.62lbs * 12 troy ounces/lb = 26455.44 troy ounces OR
1 tonne of gold = 2204.62lbs * 16 ( normal ) ounces/lb = 35273.92 normal ounces
I think the answer to any other weight questions can be calculated from the data given here.
The dictionary used is The Random House Dictionary of the English Language - Unabridged Edition
Cheers
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:27
Allen(USA) U>(Speed you quibbler you!) ID#255190: -
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:26
Allen(USA) U>(@Donald & Steve-Perth RE: bad news and ignore-ance) ID#255190: - Someone posted a piece afew days ago wherein the author said, 'One would feel more confidence if those who are telling us not to panic could be conceived of as ever having told us to panic'. Or something like that. Anyway I really liked that idea. When was the last time an authority told you to panic? NOT!
I doubt that anyone will do anything until they would be totally embarrased if they continued to do nothing. Have you ever notice that in a company or corporation the main role of a manager is to stop things from happening? Same, same. These people do not have a shred of decency in them. They know exactly what is going on. They know people everywhere will be devastated. They couldn't care less. The only thing they care about is keeping the surface smooth.
Monady? Business as usual until the clock strikes twleve, Then PEOPLE, not heads or suits, will lead. Only problem is it will not be in wisdom or prudence but in panic. What a bloody mess it will be.
The media will instantly switch its perspective to match its audience. The audience will not remember that just the week before the media was saying just the opposite. ( part of the reason for this is that, for whatever reason, television as a media has a charming habit of moving people into a passive-receptive state of brain function also known as the 'alpha' state in which the mind becomes an uncritical receiver of impressions rather than a critical judger of thoughts ) .
MMMMOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOO!!! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:16
Speed U>(Get the math right) ID#29082: - 1 Metric ton ( tonne ) is 1000 kilograms or 1,000,000 grams.
Gold is always measured in troy ounces.
1 troy ounce = 31.104 grams ( see Bart's charts )
so 1 Metric ton = 32,150 troy ounces.
MoReGoLd: I will quibble over 150 ounces ( $45,000 ) per ton. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:15
Selby U>(No No ) ID#287207: - nomercy. Explain why anyone would take Canadian debt in Toronto and receive 1.25% less than if they put into U$ debt in Buffalo. Back tomorow.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:10
Gusto Oro U>(Ton of bricks...) ID#377235: - Jung, here are the figures:
Metric ton = approx. 2200 lbs.
Avoirdupois:
Short ton = 2000 lbs.
Long ton = 2440 lbs.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:09
Crunch U>(@ Skylark sold subject to subsequent buyback ?) ID#344290: - Skylark, I don't know what you mean for sure. Yours 12:14
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 14:02
MoReGoLd U>(@TONNE) ID#348286: - JUNG: It has been posted before. A tonne in approx.
2000 lbs. X 16 ozs = 32000 ozs. It is actually slightly higher because those numbers are slightly higher, but whats a few ounces between friends? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:57
Jung U>(Central Bank Gold Holdings ...) ID#237164: -
Puetz posted that there is about 28,000 tonnes of CB gold. And
at about $10 x 10^6 per tonne, the CB gold holdings is about
$ 3 x 10^11 which is about $300 Billion, 300,000,000,000.
Lets see, thats in the order of the US savings and loan rescue.
Some are saying that the Korean problem is in the order of 150 billion.
Others are saying that the Japanese problem is in the order of 400 billion to 1,600 billion.
The US debt is about 5,450 billion. Thats about 15 times all the
gold in the CB's. ( Some say that the unreported obligations are 20,000
billion, which would be about 65 times all the gold in the CB's. )
So, if gold were the base of money there is definitely not enough gold to cover problems that are cropping up. Not at the current price of gold.
So what happens when people do turn to gold as a reference of value? The
governments can not allow it and survive. I think there will be confiscation of gold as there had been in the 30's.
Will owners of gold get a fair price for gold then? Did people get a
fair price for gold in the 30's confiscation?
If there is corporate memory of the confiscation I would like to hear
about it. My father in law gave up his gold during the 30's, as ordered.
I recall he was really sore during the 80's when gold was at the 800
level.
Investing in gold may be a good idea, but what's the end game? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:57
Crunch U>(@ Jung) ID#344290: - Metric tonne = 32,151 troy Oz.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:56
Miro U>(Help wanted ads) ID#347457: - Folks, don’t attach any significance to a low number of help wanted ads this weekend. I am from the Washington DC metropolitan area and know for a fact that this is just a seasonal down spike ( mostly attributed to a closing date for wanted adds - Thursday which was a holiday and most of the adds did not make it ) . Unemployment rate in NV where most of the jobs in this area is concentrated is 2.5%. In the same issue of the Washington Post there is a big article about shortage of people and how employers go overboard to get, steal, attracts, etc. new employee ( and loosing them to a competition ) e.g., woman employee got a $40K bonus referring four people who were hired.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:56
Gusto Oro U>(Ton of bricks...) ID#377235: - Jung, when you're talking about a ton of anything you have to ask yourself if it is an avoirdupois ton or a metric ton you are considering and if it's an avoirdupois ton, is it a short ton or a long ton. These are three different figures.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:55
Carl U>(A little Canadian grass roots resitance to WTO plans) ID#333131: - www.flora.org/mai-not/
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:47
cherokee__A U>(@the-don-is-feelin-the-feelin----------) ID#344308: - donald---
remember that 'feeling' we discussed?
the irresistable force is knocking at the door--
he is here--------enter the bear--
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:45
vronsky U>(GOLD VERSUS THE DOLLAR by Milhouse) ID#426220: - Hong Kong analyst Milhouse shares his latest economic and financial wisdom. Again, he draws special attention to the significance of Money Supply. Correctly he observes, “If confidence in financial assets and government controlled currencies was to significantly reduce, then the total gold reserves of all Central Banks ( worth 320 billion dollars at current gold prices ) could be absorbed in an instant by private investors.”
Of monumental import is his assertion that “...it must be remembered that there are 3.8 billion ounces of gold in the world and the supply is increasing by ( ONLY ) 1.75% each year ( probably less for the next few years due to mine closures ) , WHEREAS there are 5,300 billion US dollars in the world, and the supply is increasing by 9% each year. The end result is obvious.”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse1130.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:44
Prudent U>(to Donald) ID#224267: - I see! So, divide and conquer will be the clinton strategy, and we're not out of the woods on that issue. we should all do whatever we can to make the politicians in congress aware of the repercussions. like...emailing that article on the MAI to every state and US congressman.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:41
Prudent U>(to Old Goldd) ID#224267: - thanks, your post answered my question. sorry not to have been more aware of what's going on about fast track,but i suspect i'm not alone on that.
and a very nice article, but i ask Will the american pulic ever wake up? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:27
Jung U>(What is a ton ?) ID#237164: - I asked if anyone had ready reference to what was an oz, g, ton, kilo
of gold and didn't see a response ... perhaps I missed the posting.
I have seen postings in which a ton is 32000oz and someone used 35200oz.
Shouldn't the number be something like 2200 * 12 = 2640 ?
Or is it 2000 * 12 = 24000 Oz?
I saw on the Aust Mint site that an OZ is 31.103g.
In the general discussions on this site, perhaps the preciseness is not
necessary, but I would like some help. Maybe there is one amoung us
who is in the trade and can readily post the numbers.
I started to look up the units used in gold trade, and got lost in
'grains'.
Thanks for the help. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:24
Donald__A U>(@Prudent) ID#26793: - Congress did not vote on it. Clinton pulled the bill after he did a headcount. He is planning to reintroduce it in January I understand.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:23
OLD GOLD U>(Saving the World Economy) ID#238295: - Interesting article by William Greider. Anything like this program would be very bullish for the yellow.
SAVING THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY
By WILLIAM GREIDER
Converging events in U.S. politics and the global economy have created a watershed
moment, I believe: a time to teach and agitate but also to think anew about what is
possible--and not just for Americans but for those distant others who make the goods
we buy.
The House Democrats' defeat of fast-track trade authority for the President
demonstrates that, given the muddled condition of America's party alignments, the
liberal-left-labor minority has real political leverage, if it clearly understands the
principles it is defending. Minority leader Richard Gephardt, A.F.L.-C.I.O. chief
John Sweeney and the others who joined to thwart Clinton and the financial-business
elites have reignited our optimism.
The fast-track politics resonates like a loud warning bell for the establishment
because it coincides with the gathering crisis in the global system itself. Multinational
commerce and capital are beginning to grasp that they are at a perilous moment, as
financial markets deteriorate in Asia and Latin America, pulling once-vibrant
economies down with them.
The apologists' initial claim that this is some strange Asian flu--and thus no
concern to Americans--is both condescending and ludicrously wrong. Americans will
pay, dearly and directly, in multiple ways. The contagion of collapsing currencies
and stock markets is vivid confirmation of the new interconnectedness that
globalizing corporations and financiers have fashioned. But it is also the logical
consequence of their reckless, unregulated global system.
The system's political stewards ( headed by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and President Clinton ) are trying, once
again, to patch over the damage before it degenerates into something far worse--a
worldwide deflationary meltdown. No one can be sure they will succeed this time.
What we do know is that they are proceeding with the same banker's mentality they
applied to previous crises: Bail out endangered financial institutions and investors,
punish innocent bystanders with austerity measures and continue to ignore the
underlying economic and human contradictions that make the global system so
vulnerable to breakdown.
This is morally wrong, for sure, but it's also potentially dangerous. Forcing the
usual financial remedies upon the troubled developing economies may simply feed
the imbalances that already exist, aggravate instabilities and possibly set off a chain
reaction of collapsing credit and economic activity that not even the Federal Reserve
Chairman will be able to reverse. No one knows where these events are leading, but
the world is flirting with a historic disaster while U.S. leaders indulge in
self-congratulations.
The first great task is to begin explaining these things clearly. And the first message
that should be delivered is this: Like it or not, we are all in this together now, rich
nations and poor alike, all riding on the same runaway train. Globalization of markets
means there's no place to hide. Americans are not going to get out of this--the
continuing loss of good jobs, the long-term depression of wages--until they learn to
think globally, and to devise remedies that do not depend on throwing poor people
over the side.
I emphasize this because, as things get worse and Americans are asked to bail out
more players ( rival trading nations, corrupt dictators, global banks and investors ) ,
the natural impulse to withdraw from the world and defend hearth and home will
intensify--and will be encouraged by nostalgic, right-wing protectionists. But even if
pulling up the bridges were a plausible course, it would be profoundly
unprogressive. Think, instead, of the grand new vistas that have been opened for
human relations around the world.
The great strategic opportunity before us is to target the fundamental fissure that
already exists within conservative ranks ( free-market reformers versus working-class
cultural conservatives ) and break it wide open. The natural majority of citizens in this
country are already opposed, in varying degrees, to the status quo regime. The
challenge is how to mobilize their potential leverage over political decisions. When
you think about it, many Americans have already done pretty well at sorting things
out for themselves. After all, popular skepticism about the free trade mantra is why
fast track lost. What follows are suggestions for a progressive offensive.
The Economic Rationale for Labor Rights
Labor rights is about saving U.S. jobs and about human freedom, for sure, but
people also must understand that labor rights is fundamentally about saving the
global economy from its own threatening excesses. If workers at the bottom of the
global industrial system don't win the freedom to organize and bargain for a fairer
share of the returns, then the depression of U.S. wages will continue. Why? Because
the global economy is choking on its own productive overcapacity--too many
factories chasing too few consumers. ( The global auto industry, for example, will
soon be able to produce 80 million vehicles a year for a marketplace with few-er than
60 million buyers, meaning that many more factories must close, here and abroad. )
Raising this issue is not just a tactical shift in rhetoric to dodge the media's usual
slurs ( losers, Luddites, big-labor protectionists ) but a way to focus on economic
fundamentals. The widening gap between an expanding production base worldwide
and the inability of consumers to buy all the new output is the central subtext of the
present crisis. The multinationals know the reality of overcapacity because they
contend with it daily.
In different ways, labor incomes are suppressed on both ends of the global
system--usually by labor-market forces ( including mass unemployment or temp jobs )
in the advanced economies, often by government edict and brutal force in developing
ones. Meanwhile, companies must keep building more production or relocating
factories to keep up in the cost-price chase.
As an alternative, our economic imperative should be to create more buying
power--rising real wages and stable employment--not just for the United States and
Europe but globally. Overcapacity drives down prices and wages ( and eventually
profits ) , so banks and stock markets find themselves wildly overinvested. Even
conservative commentators are now acknowledging the danger that overcapacity
could lead to a general deflation--the horrendous downward spiral better known as
depression.
Any healthy economy, including the globalized marketplace, will sooner or later be
undermined if the broad ranks of consumers lack the wherewithal to keep up. It's
what Henry Ford grasped in 1914 when he decided unilaterally to raise his assembly
workers' pay to $5 a day: An industrialized system, he said, cannot possibly
flourish--or even endure--if the mass of workers can't buy what they produce.
F.D.R.'s Federal Reserve Chairman, Marriner Eccles, made the same point, as did
Keynes.
Insisting on freedom for the exploited workers--bringing the bottom up instead of
knocking higher wages down--is only one of many stimulative measures needed to
reverse the negative cycle now gaining visible momentum. The Fed, Germany's
Bundesbank and other central banks need to start dropping interest rates, right now.
Governments obsessed with cutting spending to appease bondholders need to
re-examine the reigning orthodoxy, right now.
We are, in other words, approaching a great ideological turning point. This may
sound premature, but I think the current turmoil signals an end to the supply-side era
that has ruled the world since Reagan's election in 1980. The doctrine was
straightforward: Cut taxes ( and government ) to benefit the wealth holders and
corporations so they will make new investments, that is, build new supply, more
output. Wage inequalities, we were told, do not matter. Neither does the demand side
of the economy. But now the truth has trickled down: This is wrong not just for
people but for economies.
Trade's Dangerous Imbalances
The persistent, lopsided U.S. trade deficits did not go away after the eighties.
Governing elites simply stopped talking about them. Now the unbalanced trade, in
which America plays buyer of last resort for surplus production elsewhere, is
swelling again and will likely explode in the next year or so, as Asian economies try
to export their way out of the mire. Economist David Hale of Zurich Kemper
Investments figures the U.S. trade deficit could nearly double, to as high as $300
billion a year.
The competitive currency devaluations sweeping across Asia and Latin America more
or less guarantee this result: Their goods become automatically cheaper in trade, our
exports more expensive for them to buy. But the ticking time bomb is Japan, stuck in
its own financial downdraft and stagnation. If Japan further devalues the yen against
the dollar, as many now see happening, that could revive the deindustrialization that
closed so many U.S. factories and drove manufacturing jobs overseas in the eighties.
This is one of several ways Americans will pay for the crisis.
This is the moment to revive the argument made a decade ago by labor-friendly
politicians like Gephardt. Only the problem is more diffuse now because it's not just
Japan running a swollen trade surplus with the United States but also China, Mexico
and a long list of others ( some of which run trade deficits of their own ) .
The established wisdom teaches, first, that our trade deficit is a function of the
federal budget deficits and, second, that national trade deficits don't really matter.
Both propositions are about to be pounded by reality. If the federal budget deficit is
shrinking and about to vanish, why is the trade deficit ballooning instead of
subsiding? Because it is a function of the unequal access to markets. Ours is wide
open, theirs aren't.
Those who still believe trade deficits don't matter should re-read the history of
imperial Britain. We are a very rich nation but, like any other debtor, even the United
States cannot play generous benefactor forever--borrowing from other nations in
order to pay for their goods. Over several decades, the U.S. net-asset position in
international terms has fallen from plus 30 percent of G.D.P. to negative 9 percent.
Someday, the capacity to accumulate this foreign debt will hit a saturation point;
when trade deficits soar, that day is hastened.
If America taps out, it constitutes a crisis for the entire global system. Who will buy
all this stuff, when we can no longer do so? In that regard, the debt-soaked condition
of American consumers becomes relevant. Despite the celebrating, the Clinton
recovery is distinctive in that median household income has still not recovered from
the last recession and remains below the 1989 level. And household debt is at a
dangerously high level--another reason the reflation of wages is a necessary part of
any cure.
Given the deep problem of the unbalanced trading system itself, the President should
tell our trading partners ( once we pull back from the cliff of the current crisis, that is ) :
The United States is going to correct its deficit condition, if necessary by unilaterally
imposing a temporary general tariff, as is permitted under GATT to correct a nation's
financial imbalances. Alternative measures might be considered, but the objective is
not subject to negotiation.
My hunch is that once a U.S. President credibly invokes the threat, other nations will
rush to the table to work out the adjustments. After all, it's in their interest to keep the
U.S. market as open as possible. If China, say, or Japan considers retaliation, they
will find that a trade war closes their factories first, and many more of them, since
they are the ones who export excess capacity to us.
No Reform, No Bailouts
The obvious opening for maximum leverage involves how Congress confronts the
bailout packages that the Clinton Administration hopes to execute for Southeast Asia,
mainly through the I.M.F. and World Bank but also directly from the Treasury and
the Federal Reserve. Treasury Secretary Rubin hoped at first to sit it out and let Japan
pick up the tab, but the deterioration has been too vast and swift. Besides, Japan
itself is coming unraveled. Business Week's back-of-the-envelope calculation is that
coming bailouts, from Thailand to South Korea, will likely total at least $100 billion.
Two big objections should be thrown in the Administration's path. First, the I.M.F.
and Treasury are imposing their usual forced-austerity terms on poor nations ( cut
wages and public spending, raise interest rates so endangered banks can clean up
their balance sheets ) . This not only induces needless suffering among people who
were themselves innocent of excess, it's also pulling in the wrong direction--further
depressing the global system, adding to the problem of inadequate demand.
If the I.M.F. and the World Bank refuse to devise a more helpful approach--that is,
stimulating growth and wages while they clean up bad debts--then we should cut off
their money. Block the U.S. funding needed to rescue more foreign banks and stock
markets. ( Need I mention that the banking-business interests getting rescued in
Thailand and Indonesia include the same folks who pumped so much money into
Clinton's re-election? ) This requires Democrats to make common cause with those
Republicans who are offended for their own principled reasons.
Second, this new round of bailouts exposes the enduring hypocrisy of the
free-market crowd: People must submit to the dictates of market forces, but capital
need not. Bankers and major investors want a free run on the upside--that is, no
controls whatever--and they expect to be rescued from their own big mistakes on the
downside. Their private losses are now going to be socialized, an economist would
say, their exposure shared by government agencies. What is the public getting in
return? Consider the political struggle that would be required to assemble $100
billion in lending for public works projects or an employer of last resort jobs
program.
Enough. Americans will be infuriated, I expect, when they grasp what's happening.
Progressives should propose some forward-looking bargaining demands the public
can support. No bailout money until the borrowing nations undertake concrete
reforms on labor rights. No more financial relief for banking and capital markets
unless they concede the centrality of the wage problem, the need for capital controls
and other reforms. If bankers spurn these proposals, let them eat their own losses.
A U.S.-financed rescue of the deeply corrupt Suharto regime in Indonesia seems
especially obscene. His bloody record runs from massacres in East Timor to the
brutal smashing of Indonesia's independent labor movement. At the moment, the
heroic leader of Indonesia's independent labor federation, Muchtar Pakpahan, is in
prison and gravely ill, charged with subversion, a capital offense. His movement
has been crippled, perhaps beyond recovery, but he refuses to give up. Will our
Treasury Secretary ask Suharto to free Pakpahan when he signs off on the loan? Will
our President? ( In fact, Representative Bernie Sanders charges that the I.M.F. loan
being speeded to Indonesia is illegal. A 1994 law sponsored by Sanders and
Representative Barney Frank requires the United States to insist that labor rights be
an element considered in all I.M.F. workout loans. )
Capital Controls: Restoring Stability
Whatever happens next, the globalizing financial markets will continue to produce
panics and collapses until some moderation is imposed on the lightning-quick flows
of capital across borders. How many times must the world flirt with breakdown
before governments recognize that unregulated capital is dangerous? Rescuing
reckless investors with periodic bailouts does not produce either stability or equity.
The desire for national controls has growing support among developing countries
held hostage by the quirky enthusiasms of foreign capital. But even the largest
developing nations, like Brazil, dare not express their anxiety--not in the present
crisis. If they did, they would be savaged by global finance for apostasy.
So, Americans have to open this subject for debate because it is our orthodoxy that
rules; our bankers who are demanding that other governments surrender sovereign
control of their domestic financial systems. Reviving controls on foreign exchange
might include modest transaction taxes that will yield enormous revenues while
nicking the profits of speculators. At a minimum, poor nations need the right to
impose temporary controls on capital when they are faced with panic flight or
speculative assaults. Capital controls would not stop development and foreign
investment but would restore some accountability to the system.
Corporate Loyalty: The Buried Contradiction
Americans already know that premier multinationals--I.B.M., Boeing, General
Electric and others--are determined to become known as global corporations rather
than U.S. ones. Yet it is still U.S. taxpayers who pony up billions in direct subsidies
and tax breaks for these same companies, even as they shed ever more U.S.
workers. Leading exporters have even demanded that the Export-Import Bank relax
or abolish its U.S.-content rules so that they can use more foreign labor in their
U.S. exports.
It's time to force a showdown on this issue: Target the various forms of public
subsidy for these corporations and abolish them, perhaps shifting the aid to smaller
domestic enterprises. If the multinationals want to offer a compromise or alter their
globalizing strategies, that's fine, let's talk. But the old claim that exports translate
into general prosperity should no longer be believed, because it no longer matches
reality.
Confronting the 'Dark Satanic Mills'
Lurid examples of the random inhumanity in global production are abundant and not
restricted to sweatshops. We are talking about elementary matters like fire protection
in factories and control of toxic chemicals, or simply obeying labor laws. None of
the abusive behavior by major corporations is necessary to global commerce or to
anyone's prosperity. It continues because no one stops it. Americans can.
We can start by imposing some firm rules on U.S.-based companies--stipulating
what we expect in their behavior, what we will not tolerate from toymakers or
shoemakers or auto and aircraft manufacturers. Then we can incorporate those
principles in our trading terms--as penalty tariffs if necessary--and finally in the
global system's trading rules. At each stage, business will predict dire consequences,
just as it did a century ago when humane standards were written into U.S. law to
curb similar abuses.
An important precedent was established by Congress last summer when it authorized
U.S. Customs to police the new labeling system activists have created for India's rug
exports--consumer labels that guarantee no indentured children were used in their
manufacture. This example can be expanded to other imports, product by product.
Like any other regulation, it shifts the cost of antisocial behavior from the victims to
the perpetrators.
There are more issues to discuss, a lot more. But my essential point is that Americans
already know the bad news. We are laden with insecurities, doubt and resentment.
We are told repeatedly there is nothing we can do except passively accept whatever
the global system deals out. Yet progressives should be proclaiming a different
message: one of optimism with an agenda for positive action. The defeat of fast track
shows the way. Once people win a few victories, the global problems will not seem
insurmountable, the established powers will no longer seem invincible.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:20
Prudent U>(to Sharefin) ID#224267: - Sharefin........are you still out there?
does anyone know if congress has given clinton the fast track he wants?
All, if you haven't read that article MAI Trade Agreement from Hell
do so now. It is appalling! - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:05
Ted U>(@ Cape Breton with no electricity....................) ID#364147: - Kind of hard ta post when you don't have electricity------storm hit THURSDAY night-----got the 'juice' back about a half hour ago ( Great ( ) work NSP ( Nova Scotia Power ) --- said without the grin thing....unions suk
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:04
Donald__A U>(@Steve-Perth) ID#26793: - I can not see how Wall Street and Europe can continue to ignore the news out of Asia any longer. This is really serious stuff, but so was last week and it was ignored. We should know in a few hours.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 13:00
STUDIO.R U>(IS IT JUST COINCIDENCE OR MERELY IRRELEVANT?) ID#93232: - To encourage fellow goldbugs to lift their weighty chins just a little bit...I must reveal to you now that, after great contemplation, I have just now determined that NEW YORK AND POMPEII have the same number of letters.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:43
Donald__A U>(Cherokee) ID#26793: - The liberals have the best ( only? ) Great Depression website.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:33
cherokee__A U>(@history-----and-------the-future-----blood-brothers---fatimm) ID#344308: - donald---
recorded history almost always is skewed to the right or left
depending upon which side is dominant and effectively recording
same.
the economy was indeed in poor shape in the pre-crash years. does
this vindicate and absolve the individual ( s ) who precipitated and
authored the magnitude and depth of the sell-off? the author ( s )
were already positioned for the crash, and their holdings and
subsequent power, increased exponential to the losses. ( nth degree )
think about it---------all the losses of the millions, were the gain
of the few.........the way it has always been........
research some books on the power-ful figures of the late 30's thru
the late 40's. look at the carictures of getty, rockefeller, morgan,
etc... . they bought everything everyone HAD to sell, at pennies on the
dollar. they owned and controlled damned near everything! they were
portrayed as over-stuffed vultures that had eaten every-thing and were
so gorged that they could not fly. it is incredible to see the sentiment
that was universally held AFTER the crash. the way it will be ----again--
accident? hell no.
happen again? hell yes.
those with power, want nothing more, than more power. this requires
THEM to control the assets of that which they desire to control.
paper gives them this means. gold and silver wrest control from
YOUR task-masters.
buy gold and silver---------take control for you and yours.
paper is the controlling mechanism---------beware the money changers
and--the---paper-hangers
the second chapter is being written today.....black monday---
showing soon at a theatre near you around the world........again
cherokee!; ) no-gloom-and-doom---just-enjoying-the-here-and-NOW---for-now--- - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:21
Skylark U>(A comment on gold loans, forward sales and their affect on price.) ID#93130: - As published, as of the 3rd quarter, global gold demand has been robust but is inadequate to absorb Producer and CB supply along with large supply entering the market though the mechanism of forward sales derived from producer hedging, bank sales, gold carry trade and speculative selling.
Typically in these transactions, borrowed gold is immediately sold subject to a subsequent buyback. Now, the only way this can happen if there is demand in the market to purchase the borrowed gold when sold. Without this, none of these transactions can occur. Obviously, the published figures on demand and consumption by the Goldfields and the WGC, when considering producer supply, do not come anyway near the demand that is needed to satisfy these transactions if the amount of borrowed gold as reported is true, which report is supported by the high short interest on the COMEX and that the OTC market is reportedly over 10 times that amount. A most important question then is: Who is buying the excess over reported demand gold sold under these forward sale transactions, and why is this not being mentioned in the reports.?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:16
Steve - Perth U>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au) ID#284170: - Steve's Comment: Asia will only rebound when Japan & China is sorted out.
That may be some time off. In the mean time, Asian exports into the US is going to hurt hard. In comparing 1987 to now, the real issue will be how people with loans are going to make their repayments when they don't have a job. All this discussion about rates etc is meaningless when you don't have a job to pay the interest bill!! Then those high Price Earning ratios on shares will look unbelievable.
Steve’s specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
BREAKING STORIES:
Weak will perish as cash crisis worsens
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/world/wtokyo.html
Australian Treasury's secret ban on Japanese banks
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/news/news1.html
Fight for life as Asian crisis hits resources
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/invest/invest1.html
Asians man the protectionist barricades
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/market/markets3.html
See, nothing to worry about. Or is there?
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971201/market/markets8.html
IN REVIEW:
One third of Japan’s Banks predicted to fail
http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971127/bus/bus15.html
Russian Nukes for sale
http://www.forbes.com/Forbes/97/1201/6012264a.htm
Asian crisis multiplies Yeltsin's economy woes ( 28% interest rates! )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971129/world/world11.html
Yamaichi hid $1.2b debts in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971129/business/business5.html
Asian Fallout affects Germany
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/world/world6.html
Japan - Things fall apart when the centre cannot hold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/market/markets3.html
How Slick converted from a glitch to global crisis
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/perspective/perspective2.html
China Worries
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/perspective/perspective3.html
Templeton World Fund Manager admits Nikkei could drop much further
http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr1128.html#STORY3
China's bank bubble due to burst: experts
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world1.html
A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:15
prisbrian U>(The Story of Jonathan May (Silver Hoarding)) ID#171238: - Please read the following excerpt: I encourage you to read this man's own story to get an firm grasp of what is going on instead of speculation!
It can be found in Behold a Pale Horse by William Cooper, published bu Light Technology Publishing
Jonathan May attempted to free us from the shackles of the Federal Reserve by creating an alternate banking system with instruments backed by land, raw materials, mineral deposits, oil, coal, timber and other wilderness holdings. Jonathan aided Governor Connally and the Hunt brothers in their effort to corner the silver market. The silver would have been used to create a Bank of Texas issue of real money. This would have destroyed the Federal Reserve had the Hunts been successful. When the world bankers realized what was happening, they destroyed Connally, the Hunt brothers and Jonathan May.
The Federal Reserve entrapped Mr. May by intentionally routing his credit instruments through the Federal Reserve, against the terms clearly stated upon those instruments, instead of through Mr. Mays alternate system. Jonathan May was illegally arrested, illegally tried and illegally imprisoned in the Federal Prison at Terre Haute, Indiana. The world power structure has stolen Mr. Mays idea, which will be used as the banking system of the New World Order and is known as the World Conservation Bank. Jonathan has served four years of 15 year sentence.
This book was written in 1990.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:13
Blonde U>(Help wanted ads) ID#263278: - ROR--interested in your observation of a drop in employment ads. Does anyone know if there is a seasonal consideration here, for example, do employers believe that few people will be reading job ads on the Thanksgiving weekend? If there is not a seasonal factor, it's a trend that bears watching. ( Oops, shouldn't have used that word ) .
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:10
Donald__A U>(Recent quote by Alan Greenspan) ID#26793: - With leveraging there will always exist a remote possibility of a chain
reaction, a cascading sequence of defaults that will culminate in
financial implosion if it proceeds unchecked... some have voiced
concern that the subsidy embodied in the safety net has supported a
greater degree of risk-taking than might be appropriate. This is
obviously a legitimate concern. ... if central banks effectively insulate
private institutions from the largest potential losses, however incurred,
increased laxity could threaten a major drain on taxpayers or
produce inflationary instability as a consequence of excess money
creation. Only a central bank, with its unlimited power to create
money, can with a high probability thwart such a process before it
becomes destructive. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 12:04
sweat U>(old scenario, new student (me) ) ID#23782: - To All:
Due to the leverage of gold equities compared to bullion, will
the first indications of a rebound in prices be an accumulation of equities? And perhaps a rally in equity prices? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 11:59
Donald__A U>(Causes of The Great Depression) ID#26793: - http://www.scruz.net/~kangaroo/Causes.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 11:57
STUDIO.R U>(nomercy @ 10:00 POSTING) ID#93232: - Battipaglia is a very dangerous idiot. One hopes that, while in state's confinement, he will reflect on and repent for the misery he inflicted on the soon-to-be poor and the simple-minded. I really don't comprehend his ability to sell so effectively...he is too transparent to be a good thief.
God is supposed to take care of sparrows...why doesn't he take care of buzzards? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 11:46
nomercy U>(In Alan We Trust. So Why Own Gold? ) ID#390214: - Were gold ever to rally, the move could be explosive. Central banks have lent out a lot of gold to
speculators who then sold it short, using the borrowing as cheap financing. Were there a big move,
there could be some frantic scrambling as shorts tried to cover.
But such a rally will not come because central banks suddenly rediscover faith in gold. They like the
current situation. It will come only if belief in the wisdom of central bankers is shaken, if not
destroyed. Maybe the current Asian problems will be mishandled. But if not, it could be a long time
before the market's faith weakens.
Imagine a world where one religion had been almost universally believed, but was now fading away
as a new religion gained widespread acceptance. What would you expect the high priests of the new
religion to say about the old one?
So it is now with central banks and gold. For centuries, gold was money, and some argued it was the
only real money. The paper stuff could be -- and at some point certainly would be -- inflated by
irresponsible politicians. Gold was the real store of value.
That belief peaked in 1980, when gold briefly topped $800 an ounce. Investors believed inflation
would never end. They scorned 30-year Treasury bonds even as their yields topped 12 percent.
In those days, recalled James Grant, the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, people refused to
accept the idea of the central banker being competent, let alone omniscient and omnipotent.
Now, it appears, the reverse is true. Treasury bonds yield around 6 percent, and Alan Greenspan
appears simultaneously on the cover of every news magazine, the subject of flattering profiles. The
countries of Western Europe, preparing to unify their currencies, believe an independent central bank
will assure the Euro keeps its value.
Investors now believe in central bankers, and the bankers love it. Last week, gold fell below $300
an ounce, for the first time since 1985, when one central banker, Eddie George, the president of the
Bank of England, forecast the new European central bank would not need much in the way of gold
reserves. Gold used to be viewed as a good asset for central banks, he explained, but it's now seen
as the bottom of the pile.
A month earlier, gold staged a brief rally as world stock markets plunged. But that rally was aborted
when officials of Switzerland's central bank endorsed a plan to dump half of their gold. It is hard to
imagine a country with an image for monetary prudence better than Switzerland's, and if it sees little
need for gold, who is to argue?
The problem with gold is that is has no yield. A central bank can lend out its gold and get a percent
or two a year in interest, but it can just as easily hold dollars and get 5 percent. Once, the risks of
paper currencies made gold's small yield acceptable. Now, with faith in central banks at a peak,
there is little fear of currency erosion. Many central banks have sold part of their gold.
To hear some people tell it, gold is becoming just like any other commodity. It is useful for jewelry, in
dental filings and for some industrial purposes, but as a store of value it has no particular function.
And as the world accepts that, central banks will gradually sell more gold, depressing the price even
further.
That may come true. Money is money only if others believe it is. And right now it appears that few
believe that of gold. They believe instead in the almighty dollar and in the central bank that stands
behind it.
Were gold ever to rally, the move could be explosive. Central banks have lent out a lot of gold to
speculators who then sold it short, using the borrowing as cheap financing. Were there a big move,
there could be some frantic scrambling as shorts tried to cover.
But such a rally will not come because central banks suddenly rediscover faith in gold. They like the
current situation. It will come only if belief in the wisdom of central bankers is shaken, if not
destroyed. Maybe the current Asian problems will be mishandled. But if not, it could be a long time
before the market's faith weakens.
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/financial/market-watch.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 11:30
tolerant1 U>(sharefin) ID#31868: - I believe that we will never know the true extent of the losses. Once the implosion begins it will be very easy to sway people away from the facts and guide them to the feet of the chosen scapegoats. These already having been chosen.
Look for certain catch phrases and comments that appear over and over again in different media vehicles. The how and why of the implosion will be swept away as the misery takes hold and people have to concentrate on survival.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:57
Donald__A U>(U.S. Customs Regulations on gold coins.) ID#26793: - http://www.customs.ustreas.gov/travel/prohibit.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:56
cherokee__A U>(@'29-and-'97-------birds-of-a-feather--------) ID#344308: - sharefin@1026-----
you say----what caused it is not known-----
the causes were being exposed during a congressional
investigation in the post-crash years when the
congressman leading the probe was assassinated.
jp morgan was the point man being investigated
for his hand in the crash.
there is no doubt WHAT caused the '29 crash---
the question is------ WHO or WHOM ------
power-plays occur every-day...this one has taken 68 years to set-up...
the game is the same but with different players. gen x and the boomers
are ready to be harvested. the chaff is amongst bran........beware---
for that which will be lost, is that which can ill afford to be lost!
cherokee!; ) handing-out--no-doz-for-the-sleepwalkers
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:49
STUDIO.R U>(WILL THE DOW HOLD TOGETHER UNTIL JAN.1?) ID#93232: - I have forgotten, Does anyone know if the provisions regarding capital gains tax breaks contained in the Tax Relief Bill of 1998 take effect on Jan.1 ? If so, securities owners may be nervously awaiting the new year's arrival in order to abate tax load.
Visualize nervous horses waiting in the gates for another thirty days.
Several will soon bolt and run...the others will thrash themselves severely and many will need to be disposed of. This could be a very bad week for the stock markets...the heavy investors I was with last night were very worried. One fellow lost $120,000. last week on a oil-service stock. They collectively wanted to know more about buying physical gold.
Who cares why. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:32
sharefin U>(How much $,$$$,$$$,$$$ ?) ID#284255: - Vronsky
It will be interesting, possibly quite amazing,
To hear of the size, of these losses,
That these derivatives houses, have made.
How long, before they release the figures? - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:31
Donald__A U>(Singapore Gold Coin page) ID#26793: - http://www.singapore.com/companies/sgmint/lion
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:26
Donald__A U>(Austrian Mint gold coin page) ID#26793: - http://www.austrian-mint.com/e/wienphil.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:26
sharefin U>(Thanks for the links Donald.) ID#284255: - The 1929 Parallel - Jan87
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/87jan/parallel.htm
These are symptoms of the eventual collapse. In 1928 and through the winter, spring, and summer of 1929 the stock market divorced itself from all underlying reality in the manner just cited. Justification was, of course, asserted: the unique and enduring quality of Coolidge and Hoover prosperity; the infinitely benign effects of the supply-side tax reductions of Secretary of the Treasury Andrew W. Mellon, who was held to be the greatest in that office since Alexander Hamilton; the high-tech future of RCA, the speculative favorite of the time, which so far had not paid a dividend.
But mostly speculators, amateur and otherwise, were getting on for the ride. In the spring of 1929 came the initial indication of instability -- a very sharp break in the market. Prices recovered, and in the summer months they rocketed up. There was another bad break in September and further uneasy movements. Then, at the end of October, came the compelling rush to get out and therewith the crash. No one knows what precipitated it. No one ever will.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Trade Agreement from Hell
http://www.thewinds.org/archive/economy/mai11-97.html
http://www.thewinds.org/archive/economy/mai2_11-97.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:21
Carl U>(On meta-economic planning) ID#333131: - Is there a free market in paper? Central economic planning has finally been discredited and von Mises' reasons for forecasting its demise have been vindicated. That is, no central planner can properly plan the production of goods and services without a free market to price them. Yet today, such central planning nonsense has been replaced in the few Western economies where it flourished with a more insidious belief that paper money production can be centrally planned without regard to a free market mechanism. We might call this mata-market planning and its practice is flourishing throughout the world where countries had previously resisted its predecessor. It will meet with the same fate as its twin sister, except this time on a global scale.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:19
vronsky U>(...follow the RATS) ID#426220: - LONDON ( BBC ) : It was announced today that Barclays to close BZW share trading
Banking group Barclays is to withdraw from equity activities in the Japanese market.
The bank announced the IMMEDIATE CLOSURE of its BZW share trading operations, after it failed to find a buyer for its BZW Securities ( Japan ) Ltd subsidiary.
A Seaman's Axiom: When in a sinking ship, FOLLOW THE RATS!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:10
haulpak U>(@Haggis) ID#402183: - Hello to the Yilgarn Block. I take it you are an exploration geologist in WA. Correct? I am a geologist in northern Nevada. Thanks for the latest post... I have skimmed two of the three books you cited and found them interesting. Your post was truncated.... were there any other books on that list? I would appreciate any comments and rumors from the bush you might have about the local WA mining and exploration scene.
Regards from the Great Basin. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:04
Haggis__A U>(Gold mineralisation publications) ID#398105: -
Sorry Lads, but my computer is acting up. Will relist publications tomorrow.
Haggis - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:00
Donald__A U>(Excerpt from report on failure of US insurers to obtain approval for business in Japan) ID#26793: - The weakness of the life insurance companies may be a major reason for the lack of
vigor in Japan's deregulation proposals. The life insurance firms, by far the strongest in
terms of market share with about 78% of total premiums in fiscal 1994 ( according to
figures collected by the Foreign Non-Life Insurance Association ) , may well be the
weakest in terms of financial health.
Before the mid-1980's, most life insurance investments were in the form of low yield
corporate loans. Desiring to diversify their investment mix to improve performance,
life insurance firms placed investment bets beginning in the mid-1980's that proved to
be disastrous in the 1990's. Insurance firms reduced their domestic corporate lending
and expanded purchases of securities and real estate both domestically and
internationally in the late 1980's.
As is well known, the Japanese real estate market collapsed in the early 1990's and
many of these investments made by the life insurance companies simply evaporated.
Foreign real estate investments fared little better. Even investments in supposedly
secure international securities such as U.S. Treasuries turned out badly in the end as
the soaring yen turned foreign currency gains into domestic losses.
To make matters even worse, the Bank of Japan's low interest rate policy of the last
several years, which has been designed to stimulate the economy and to help the
banks dig out of their problems related to the real estate market's collapse in the
1990's, has been an added curse for the life insurance companies. Low interest rates
mean low yields on domestic investment and these yields are less than the life
insurance companies current life insurance and pension fund obligations. The only
relief the life insurers have received has been a unilateral reduction in their pension
fund obligations by the MOF from 4.5% to 2.5% beginning in fiscal 1996. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 10:00
nomercy U>((Guru Battipaglia who's is bullish for the Dow is now bullish on SE Asia in 1998)) ID#390214: - We believe the big surprise for 1998 will be that
Hong Kong and the rest of Southeast Asia will
rebound faster than anticipated, said Joe Battipaglia,
chairman of investment policy at Gruntal & Co.
http://www.nypostonline.com/business/1294.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:56
Haggis__A U>(Geological publications concerning gold) ID#398105: -
G'Day again,
I had a passing thought that All out there are not Geologists, so.....
Listed are a few very informative publications on gold deposits
1. World Gold Deposits - a quantitative classification.
by J J Bache
ISBN 0 946536 08 2
A neat summary type book covering a wide range of different styles of gold mineralisation, with some very good statistics. Good for the non- Geologist.
2. Greenstone Belts
edited by M De Wit and L D Ashwal
ISBN 0 19 854056 6
This is a reasonably extensive publication concerning Archaean and Proterzoic Greenstone Belts. A greenstone belt is a broad geological term for a host stratigraphic and structural sequence containing gold, nickel and other types of mineralisation.
3. Precambrian Empirical Metallogeny
Parts A & B
by Profes
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:53
Haggis__A U>(Geological publications concerning gold) ID#398105: -
G'Day again,
I had a passing thought that All out there are not Geologists, so.....
Listed are a few very informative publications on gold deposits
1. World Gold Deposits - a quantitative classification.
by J J Bache
ISBN 0 946536 08 2
A neat summary type book covering a wide range of different styles of gold mineralisation, with some very good statistics. Good for the non- Geologist.
2. Greenstone Belts
edited by M De Wit and L D Ashwal
ISBN 0 19 854056 6
This is a reasonably extensive publication concerning Archaean and Proterzoic Greenstone Belts. A greenstone belt is a broad geological term for a host stratigraphic and structural sequence containing gold, nickel and other types of mineralisation.
3. Precambrian Empirical Metallogeny
Parts A & B
by Profes
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:49
nomercy U>(A sign of things to come in 1998() ID#390214: - I said we're at war and we really are, and it's in almost every aspect and every market and every area of this business and
next year will be a battleground for everyone.
The competitive currency edge enjoyed by Asian car-makers will be felt by Ford in its main markets of the United States and
Europe, as well as Australia, he added.
I think there will be dramatic change and I think you'll see a consolidation, he said.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:44
ROR U>(Help wanted) ID#35767: - Just noticed in the Wash Post Business section that the Professional Opportunities available collapsed for this week. Ditto for professional employment in the regular want ads. Could the REAL economic situation be starting to show its head. Anybody notice this anywhere else.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:29
Donald__A U>(Crow Psychology) ID#26793: - The Principle of Understanding Crowd Psychology
This principle has also been called, by other investment professionals: Contrary Investing.
Simply, it means understanding where the majority of investors stand on a particular investment. If
everyone believes in an investment, and have therefore committed their investable capital to it, then
we have to know that and watch out. Risk is high because the price has already been bid up, and
because everyone who wants may already be already. The chances are that something may change
investors' minds and then everyone will want out. Then what?
We must also know when everyone is fearful and therefore underweighted in an investment, i.e. the
feelings that everyone holds towards gold right now. No one believes that inflation is or will be a
problem and therefore no one wants to hold gold. ( Holding gold has been a historic inflation
hedge. )
This principle comes in very handy very often, for trading and investing. There are many services
that rely on levels of bullish and bearish sentiment almost exclusively.
I used it in turning bullish on the stock market back in my December 13th, 1990 letter. At that time
a survey showed that half of all Americans feared the US was on the verge of a depression. Too
much fear, too much emotion, time to turn bullish - positive - on the markets. The market rose and
rose and rose and the principle proved true again. This can be, at times, a very easy principle to
apply many times as easy as scanning the business sections of your local newspapers for emotional
comments of one sort or another. But using The Principle of Crowd Psychology can be very tricky
also. Any information group that ranks a principle of its own can be a lifetime of study by itself. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:29
nomercy U>(Selby (disinformation comes from the Cdn Feds on inflation stats)) ID#390214: - Average car prices in Canada soared more than 30 per cent between the 1994 and 1997 model years, according to a survey
of about 30,000 new car buyers.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19971129/ROBFront/RCARS.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:25
nomercy U>(Selby (more on the Can $, recent plunge)) ID#390214: - What forced Thiessen's hand was the 3.3% plunge in the Canadian dollar
vs. the U.S. dollar since early October, taking it close to a 3-year low of U.S.
70.4 cents on Nov. 24. That drop has offset the tightening effect of the two
earlier rate hikes. The swoon mainly reflects Asian turmoil: A flight to quality
has pumped up the greenback at the Canadian dollar's expense, and prices
of key Canadian commodities exports are likely to weaken. Also, Canada's
trade outlook is not good, as booming demand sucks in imports.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 09:15
Haggis__A U>(Anglo American Corporation in Kalgoorlie) ID#398105: -
G'Day to one and all from Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.
Just a quick note.
The Anglo American Corporation of South Africa presented a mining seminar in Kalgoorlie last friday night, concerning their view of the gold exploration and mining scene.
Anglo are part of the Rothchilds stable, and form the Board of Barclays Bank in conjunction with Rio Tinto. Looks like the Rothchild stable are not giving up on gold.
Issues are a wee bit tight in Kalgoorlie at this time, but we anticipate gold to go - down then up. Exploration and mining potential in Western Australia is substantial. I will post a series of quality Australian mining stocks tomorrow. At this time most are Bargins, subject to the on coming market correction.
I wonder who is going to have a Merry Christmas?!
Aye,
Haggis
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:51
Donald__A U>(Monetary Fraud Omen) ID#26793: - http://www.thewinds.org/archive/economy/money9-97.html#top
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:45
Donald__A U>(The forces making for an economic collapse.) ID#26793: - http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/96jul/depress/depress.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:35
Donald__A U>(British Intrinsic Funds) ID#26793: - http://www.webspawner.com/users/commodity/
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:29
sharefin U>(Nostalgia) ID#284255: - http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/biztalk/grasso1/101987-1.htm
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/biztalk/grasso1/101987-2.htm
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/biztalk/grasso1/101987-3.htm
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/biztalk/grasso1/101987-4.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:14
sharefin U>('Let's not worry. It's only the bow that's sinking.') ID#284255: - http://www.mns.net.au/~tdrake/index.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[Source: Australian Financial Review, Sep 4, by Alan Deans]
QUEEN'S MAN PACKER FOLLOWS BUFFET OUT OF THE MARKET.
Australia's richest man, Kerry Packer, announced on Sept 3 the withdrawal of $850 million of his company's funds from the Australian stockmarket, bringing the amount Packer has personally pulled out of the market, in recent months, to AUS$1.3 billion.
It is Packer's unique connections that make his actions telling: Packer's chief financial advisor is World Bank president James Wolfensohn, who sits on the board of Packer's personal holding company.
It is a known fact that over at least the last three decades, neither Packer nor his father before him, have made any important financial decisions without Wolfensohn's approval. Also counted among Packer's close friends are such insiders as Lord Jacob Rothschild, Conrad Black, British gambling tsar John Aspinall, and U.N. strongman Maurice Strong, another director of a Packer company. Packer was also very close to the late Sir James Goldsmith.
Another member of the Packer circle, flamboyant Australian stock broker Rene Rivkin, announced on Channel 7's Witness program on Sept 9 that he had pulled all his money out of the stockmarket, in anticipation of a 1987-style crash. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:11
sharefin U>('Let's not worry. It's only the bow that's sinking.') ID#284255: - http://www.mns.net.au/~tdrake/index.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[Source: London Times, 18.10.97] WIESBADEN, October 18-
-MARKETS CAN FALL MUCH DEEPER AND FOR MUCH LONGER than is generally believed, says an article in the daily {London Times}, featuring the views of Fred Stafford, chairman of Investment Data Services.
Contrary to the usual talk, that only months after a potential crash, markets would be even higher than before, Stafford tells his investors to get out of the stock markets for as long as they can.
The article says, ``He believes that fund managers' obsession with benchmarks such as the FTSE 100 obscures the fact that many of the stocks are falling and that the apparent remorseless rise in the market is based on the `protected monopolies' of banks and utilities.''
Then, quoting Stafford: ``We are in a massive equity bubble, similar to the silver and gold bubbles of the early 1980s. The result of these spike markets was a fall in gold from $800 [an ounce] to under $300. The silver fall was even more dramatic, down from $2,195 to $189.
This is the way markets with spikes behave. Despite these falls being 17 years ago, neither has yet recovered. The stock markets will be no different. The U.S. market after the 1929 crash did not recover until 1954, 25 years later. Contrary to what you may be told, stock markets do not always go up in the end.'' - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 08:08
sharefin U>('Let's not worry. It's only the bow that's sinking.') ID#284255: - http://www.mns.net.au/~tdrake/index.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let the reader imagine that, when the Titanic is sinking, two passengers standing on the stern of the deck say to each other: `Let's not worry. It's only the bow that's sinking.
It's a regional problem, which doesn't affect us.' This is more or less what the politicians and the stupefied analysts are saying, who, assure us that the Asian monetary crisis and the stock market crashes are `a regional problem which does not affect us.'
And there are also those who claim that the Asian crisis will benefit one or another country, because, supposedly, the capital which flees Asia, will come here. ( As if it were very beneficial for the speculative capital which sowed chaos in a region does the same in another! ) Leaving aside the specifics, the self-delusions, and the frauds, the fact is that the entire Titanic is sinking.
The international financial and monetary system, in its totality, is bankrupt, and what we are seeing is its irredeemable disintegration. The stock market crash is nothing more than a symptom of a much deeper, generalised crisis, which is heading towards an implosion of the whole system, exactly as Lyndon LaRouche, the economist who forecast the October 1987 crash, as also the recent weeks' shocks, explained dozens of times.
Recall The Swiss National Bank director Bruno Gehrig's warnings of a systemic crisis, and the danger of chain-reaction collapse, resulting from the fact that derivatives and currency trading are totally divorced from the real economy. But the detonator of a crisis, is not its cause.
It is the international economic policies of globalization and free trade which caused the crisis, and what is sinking is not only this bankrupt system, but also the premises upon which it was based.
Much sooner than many imagine, this system will no longer exist. The big question is how it will be replaced, and by what.
The financial oligarchy has its plan, an overt fascist program of destruction of sovereign nation-states, depopulating and handing over entire regions to the cartels of the British Commonwealth and their allies, reducing billions of people to the condition of slaves ( made happy, perhaps, through generalised drug use ) , etc.... The restructuring of the financial system,
A New Bretton Woods initiative, is critical to reverse these dark expectations,
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Extraordinary and unprecedented measures were taken on Tuesday to prop up Wall Street, by pumping massive liquidity into the stock market. But all of this will only make things worse, and can only increase the intensity of the coming reverse leverage implosion.
Although we don't yet know all the details, it is clear that out of the emergency meetings on Monday, and consultations between central banks, came a plan to pump liquidity into the markets to overpower the selling by brute force
One obvious manifestation of this is that an unprecedented 1.2 billion ( ! ) shares were traded on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange, almost twice the number which changed hands during the 554-point nose dive on Monday. And 1.4 billion shares were traded on the NASDAQ.
The most visible impetus to the market's reversal was the announcement by IBM that it was prepared to buy back $3.5 billion of its own stock. Other blue-chip companies followed suit -- giving the Dow Jones non-Industrial Average a big boost; IBM was the biggest gainer among the 30 Dow industrials.
The Fed was obviously enaged in a multi-front effort to pump liquidity into the market to blow the bubble back up. We have reports that mutual funds were being provided with sufficient liquidity so that they could pay off investors heading for the exits, without having to sell stocks.
It is likely that the Fed, through commercial banks, was providing easy credit to major brokerage houses to enable them to buy stocks, and that the Fed, the Treasury, and other big government institutions were buying index derivatives such as the widely-watched S&P Index Futures -- which would pull the Dow Jones and other indices upwards.
The boiler-rooms were busy, along with the news media, telling the suckers to stick it out for the long haul, and to pick up bargains while they were cheap. With this all-out offensive by the Fed and related institutions, they managed to recover only part of Monday's loss.
But at what cost?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 07:05
Donald__A U>(South African miners riding it out well.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971126/safrica_gold_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 06:46
sharefin U>(Someone doesn't like Russia) ID#284255: - Russia won't get IMF tranche
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/moscow_imf.htx?source=htx/http2_mw
Fri Nov 28 14:41:46 1997
MOSCOW ( CBS.MW ) -- Russia will not receive another tranche of its $10.1 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund before the end of this year, but central bank and finance officials say the setback won't affect foreign investment in the country.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 06:42
Donald__A U>(IMF demands Korea close 16 banks and allow foreign mergers.) ID#26793: - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971130/korea_imf_2ndld_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 05:14
sharefin U>(shake rattle and roll) ID#284255: - Earthquakes in lock-step?
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 04:46
Steve - Perth U>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au) ID#284170: - Steve’s specially edited: NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
LATEST STORIES:
One third of Japan’s Banks predicted to fail
http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/971127/bus/bus15.html
Russian Nukes for sale
http://www.forbes.com/Forbes/97/1201/6012264a.htm
Asian crisis multiplies Yeltsin's economy woes ( 28% interest rates! )
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971129/world/world11.html
Yamaichi hid $1.2b debts in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971129/business/business5.html
Asian Fallout affects Germany
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/world/world6.html
Japan - Things fall apart when the centre cannot hold
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/market/markets3.html
How Slick converted from a glitch to global crisis
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/perspective/perspective2.html
China Worries
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971129/perspective/perspective3.html
Templeton World Fund Manager admits Nikkei could drop much further
http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr1128.html#STORY3
IN REVIEW:
Suicides increases in Hong Kong due to stock losses
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971128/world/world2.html
Sth Korea - Workers' haven turns into jobless hell
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971128/world/world3.html
China's bank bubble due to burst: experts
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world1.html
Yamaichi concealed losses for six years, says ex-chairman
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971128/world/world2.html
Samsung slashes investment by a third
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971127/world/world8.html
A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 04:22
Hedgehog U>(in my home town) ID#39845: - Free speech means they will target you anyhow. Goin inside cause there
is a sattelite above and it knows where all the gold in the world is.
All I have to do is hack into the sattelite. Bingo. Tally ho. - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 02:53
IV U>(Gold as historic symbol of quality) ID#355361: - MarkFoo: Yes, the idea that we will never need hard assets again will prove to be a strange trend of the year 1997. Centuries of economics, literature, and poetry have made gold a symbol of purity in the great collective unconscious of man and woman...golden locks, heart of gold, pure as gold, golden sunset, spun gold, it's everywhere but now, as those who would down it act in concert to achieve their various ends. This is transient and timing will be everything.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 02:40
John Disney__A U>() ID#24140: - For Another
Yes - go fetch --- - Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 02:29
tolerant1 U>(for Another) ID#31868: - Sunday November 30, 12:48 am Eastern Time
IMF mandarins having big impact on Korea Inc
By Bill Tarrant
SEOUL, Nov 30 ( Reuters ) - Seventeen faceless bureaucrats from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) have been in Seoul for a week and their presence has already shaken Korea Inc to its foundations.
The mandarins on Sunday appeared to have reached an agreement with South Korean policymakers on the size and terms of what could be the IMF's biggest ever rescue package, Seoul broadcast media reported.
Another:
You write in such extreme language. The pimps, who are the representatives of the bucket carriers, whose names never appear on a hotel register, appear to enlighten your belief in their strength. I think nothing of them. You never speak up or down, however yours is a conversation that implies strength.
I see none. I feel none. But I have known some. The BIS is a nothing more than a toothless whore, the IMF is nothing more than the residue of wiped clean cheap shoes.
My dear fellow, for I pity you, yours is a self-imposed slavery, you must have missed the meal of humility. Those of us that hear the hooves on the clatter walk are unafraid and await you and your apparent task masters.
Nothing is absolute, with the exception of what your misguided masters have taught you like a dog to believe.
Here, go fetch.
Make no mistake do not impugn my honor nor question the integrity of that which me and mine hold sacred.
Another, read the two sentences at the top of the page. Are you that which could be one of the seventeen faceless? You must take a side or become nothing.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 01:31
Selby U>(C$ and Japan) ID#287207: - bob: The drop in the C$ recently is not the result of japan unloading Canadian debt--although you can find such nonsense here. Take a look at the following and see a CB exposed for making a mistake.
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 00:36
MarkFoo U>(Gold under pressure?) ID#346232: - Extreme currency devaluations in Southeast Asia and continued European Central Bank loaning/selling are both very compelling, fundametally bearish points, especially in light of the prospects of a new deflationary tide sweeping financial markets. But don't markets reverse long before it is apparent, from a fundametal standpoint, as to why prices are changing - I mean relative to what the crowd generally perceives the markets focus to be? In short - could the gold market look any worse at this point?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 00:21
bob U>(DA) ID#25883: - As the A$ drops reletive to US$ the cost of OZ domestic gold production drops in terms of US$ ( no surprise ) . The average cost of gold as published by the WGC needs to be adjusted in the aftermath of currency devaluations. Also, major CBs gold hoards now being loaned belong to the Europeans who don't have any domestic gold production industry.The C$ is also being tested by the Japanese who are selling their C$ bonds and repatriating some liquidity. I understand that 13% of Cdn govt debt is ( was? ) owned by the Japs.
Gold price certainly will be challenged as long as European CBs are willing lenders and gold miners are willing sellers. The effects of Rupee and other Asian currency devaluations will result in lower WGC demand forecast - I understand 3Q97 has indicated a material drop in Asian demand for the yellow. Although new gold supply will tend to decline as gold price drops gold cash costs denominated in weak currencies will tend to test the market as companies strive to cover cash costs and avoid shut-down until cash costs exceed forward prices.
Doesn't the lack of transparency in the gold market concern your firm ?
Cheers
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 00:16
MarkFoo U>(Central Bank gold dumping) ID#346232: - The general feeling among market participants ( bond market participants I should say ) regarding Central Bank dumping of long-held gold reserves is that these sales should have been conducted years ago - after all, why should any entity hold assets which earn 0 interest ( or so the logic goes ) . Significant bottoms are often marked by full scale institutional selling under the notion that times have changed - in the case of gold, I believe there is a generally feeling that gold is no longer a store of value. This braod change in sentiment just seems to smack of major reversal. Has the world really become so stable a place where the credibility of government bodies and financial markets obviates the need for hard assets?
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 00:11
223 U>(In ebonics: He be flat minor) ID#263259: - Aurator re 23:44 post: Thanks!
- Date: Sun Nov 30 1997 00:01
cherokee__A U>(@whoa-there-feller---them's-danged-near-feudin-werds-----) ID#344308: - peutz@2251---
good thing you did'nt include witch doctors!!
cherokee!; ) where's-dem-chicken-bones
