Ted - go GOLD!!! Down, down, down........ ;- )

away

Éß

China is also still agriculturally based. Also, they do not need as much gold per capita as we would, for the same degree of security. I have known Chinese personally for over 25 years, and they can bargain circles around the average American. I remember going to a used car dealer and see one wear out three salesmen before buying a car. They also understand the value of gold, having been through war and hardship more frequently than us Westerners. Lastly, the strength of the Communist Chinese system is that it allows long-term planning -- something that is almost impossible for democratic governments -- except in times of crisis. Of course this can be unwise, as it was in Russia. Thus they have little to lose from a currency crisis, since their cost of labor is so much lower than the industrialized world, since the average Chinese has almost nothing anyway, and since many can barter without using the official currency at all. That 300 billion or so unrecoverable SOEs debt and the US treasuries they own could have a significant impact on the industrialized world -- even without the goods Tsunami.

Spud Master ( A Public Service announcement & reminder to EB re. sub $300 gold )

ID#273112:

Date: Tue Nov 11 1997 10:42

Éß ( Gold.Rally.Schmold.Rally.Plunge.Team.Party. ) ID#2082:

The Bears await this 'new' rally with open arms. It is ONLY a

chance to drive it to the dirt once again. It still must slip

under 300[.]

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 09:07

Mooney* ( @Messenger ) ID#348169:

From EB to D.A. -

Oh yeah....

Since I can't post tell D.A. that I will bet him a shiny little tenth oz

eagle that gold at 299 before 308. That is halfway point right now.

Crystal Ball - tsk, tsk.........

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 09:57

Crystal Ball ( @Spud and Carl ) ID#287367:

Spud- Thanks for the Public Service Announcement {:-D}

My cool Potato[e] Friend.......

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 11:12

EB ( Thanks.Spud ) ID#22956:

Thanks for reposting some of my jewels...I had no idea that I was so funny, har, har. I

guess the bears can't 'own' ALL Fridays. I think this current rally is due to silvers'

performance. It will be short lived...oh yes it will. It is actually good to see gold rally

here because the risk/reward ratio was not very appealing to me. I trust this little rally

will make it much more TASTY!! YUM, YUM!!! ;- )

more...........................

Date: Fri Nov 21 1997 14:54

EB ( The Little Train that Could.....I know you can... ) ID#22956:

[ As for the Gold train heading toward the cliff ( btw, that doppler joke was quite

hilarious ) .....I must agree...it will drop off that cliff...to the bottom finally.....I don't

know. Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock. And if it closes up today then we will look to the next

day, and then the next...etc........until it reaches that abyss you talk about...oh my.

away...to let the train push on....I know you can...I know you can...I know you can

Éßstokingthefire...chuga! ]

http://www.newswire.ca/releases/November1997/25/c5917.html

Despite the tension as we watch the action, the most likely action in the near term would be for gold to rally back off the channel bottom. Is anything really different today than it has been all year?

BTW, palladium did break through the bottom of the channel that has supported its price moves upwards all year. Just barely, but enough to suggest its rally may have run its course, at least in the near term. If this is true, there's a lot of room below.

6-pak - Consider money you have lost as sunk cost. Consider it gone, even if you haven't sold the stocks yet. Forget it. This will clear your head. Now pretend you are starting all over again. Look at gold. What a hell of an opportunity. Is it time to jump in, perhaps. If not, the time is not too far off. If you decide you don't like the stocks you are in, sell them! Hold the cash in your hands. Things definitely are different now. Mines are closing, mines are consolidating. Investment by big, knowledgable players is evident. Pick your targets carefully. Make sure they will be survivors. Watch the trends closely. You lave learned a lot. You have the council of giants. You are blessed. It might be one month, it might be 6 months. When life serves you lemons, make lemonade. Don't be a statistic, a casualty of the grinding bear, finally losing faith as the bottom approaches. Think clearly, move carefully, listen closely. You hold one of the best investments opportunities of all time in your hands ... and have all the tools at hand to be a big winner.

I don't know why $250 is a 'better' price than say, $280 or even $200/ oz. for that matter. The concept of supply and demand seems to be missing here. That is NOT to say the market isn't determining the price of gold, just that most people have no idea as to the fundamentals of its' cost of production and supply/demand factors. Thus, we seem to be getting these 'prices' thrown at us as if they're being pulled out of a hat filled with pieces of paper with numbers written on them. Todays number will be... 287. Why not?

If everybody is selling, then who is buying?

China does have a real advantage over other similar countries. Right now, a moderate Chinese currency devaluation would not discourage eager investors who might refuse to look at other countries with higher cost labor. China also has - if not the cheapest - one of the cheapest labor markets in the world.

The earthquake ( Tsunami ) of a Chinese currency devaluation would hit the creditors much harder than it would hit China.

I think it is worthwhile to mention several things so that you will see that there are other points of view just as valid as yours.

First, you and most of the posters on this site are gold bugs - me too!. We are all interested in preserving or generating hard assets. Some of us may have only a few gold coins, so we must make or save money first before we can preserve it. This is why some of us want to ask why, instead of just buy gold. Only those of us who already have enough money to buy gold can follow your advice to the letter.

Secondly, there are many knowledgable individuals on this site, all with qualities that make us collectively much stronger then each of us alone. We all learn together. I think you will admit that you learn -- I will freely admit that I have learned alot -- and I have had more than 5 years of advanced mathematics/physics in undergraduate and graduate school from one of the top universities in the US. I have learned the value of humility ( the hard way ) , and will eagerly learn from anyone -- regardless of their background - whether it is academic or not! Some of the most talented on this site I suspect have not have any formal training at all.

From some, the valuable lessons we learn are cultural -- such as from Jin - who is right in the middle of SE Asia, or informational such as from Donald -- who has a nose for financial news.

Thirdly: No matter how wealthy or poor we are -- we all need each other. We are all the same in the eyes of the Almighty. When this site is at its best, I sense a level of information exchange that makes me proud - that humans can overcome any difficulties -- even the ones that Jin or the South Koreans are going through. Me next? I know that gold alone will not protect me.

This site, and others like it will form the seeds for human cultural/economic renewal. There can be no culture without a strong economy for it to draw from, and perhaps we are all here to disseminate the necessary knowledge when others are ready to learn.

I think you underestimate yourself -- you clearly know how gold is bought and sold -- and you may have thoughts that allow us to find the answers to our questions -- all you have to do is offer the clues.

on gold futures or on gold index. It is quite probable that we are

now at the bottom of the trading range 300 - 330 and we could stay

here for a while ( 2-4 weeks ) with a few small rallies. A little more

risk conservative approach would be to sell credit put spreads,

i.e. selling at the money puts and buying out of the money for

a credit.

Is the silver situation the same, or is someone stashing a secret supply that will suddenly come out?

In the land of OZ,they've had hard knocks.

Serves em right,so many say,

Welcome Normandy to Canada,EH!

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

In the land of OZ,they've had hard knocks.

Serves em right,so many say,

Welcome Normandy to Canada,EH!

http://www.canada-stockwatch.com/

All: Cry0 went down 2 dollars today. Has been dropping slowly for over a month now. This is bearish for gold/silver, despite the fact that gold is underpriced relative to the cry0 right now.

We need to be careful.

Perhaps RJ was right about the silver rally - another false one? Tomorrows silver behavior may give us a clue.

sharefin, all: The market uptrend beginning mid-day suggests to me that we will have a short term rally for a time -- at least tomorrow. Be careful if you are betting the market is going down.

After Japan's performance last night, the US markets behaved remarkably well. Not what you would expect for a short term bear market. It seems the SE Asia news has little effect right now.

Date: Tue Nov 25 1997 13:04

THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( ANOTHER'S 10:06 ) ID#372262:

Mr. GP,

It is as you say. However, I do not feel that the reprise

of gold to lower the cost of oil was a bad thing. In reality

the governments were only using real money, gold, to

supplement our cost of oil. The world economy has

a great benefit from this! We all have gained.

The world mining industry gained much from the forward

sales. The great increase in gold produced was used

for our purpose. For a time the mines made profits.

The great mistake by the BIS was in underestimating

the Asians. Some big traders said they would buy it all

below $365+/- and they did. That’s what forced LBMA

to go on a spree of paper selling! Now, it’s a mess.

At some point the fire in Asia will drive all of them into

gold. It will end at that time.

ALL: I do not offer to prove my thoughts. If what is

written was easy for all to find, the information would

be of no use to you. Many will take no motions to

change their ways and protect worth. Such is life.

Each will chose his way and as always the future

will teach the truth.

Looks like the gold loan activity is peaking, according to USAgold.

The only part I don't like is the general news section -- not useful. But -- news specific for a certain stock is worth reading.

General login site:

http://www.tscn.com

What is interesting is that there is a Fairly regular oscillation of about one dollar with a 20-30 minute period. This oscillation was evident yesterday but it is more regular and pronouced. Competing computerized trading programs? If that is what is causing the oscillations - I hope whatever it is doesn't get into sync!

For comment - As you must have heard, Anglos is in

the process of picking up JCI's gold interest notably

Western Areas ( with more reserves than Barrick ) and

Joel - They plan to merge these companies along with

Vaal Reefs Southvaal and I forget who else into one

real whopper of a gold producer.

They are getting Wes-Areas at a price that has to be

embarrassing.

Anyway - to my point - lets pretend we are the top

management of this new Anglo gold company. We go to a

Central Bank and we borrow gold at 2-3 % per year -

ONLY WE DONT SELL THE GOLD - WE HOLD IT. Costs us 2-3

% per year but I think it may have beneficial effects

on the price of the metal - don't you.

If I were short gold and I saw somebody do this -

I might get a bit worried about it - wouldnt you

And Anglos for a measly 2-3 % per year would HOLD

THAT GOLD and more if they could get it OFF THE MARKET-

FOREVER if need be.

This is a thanks in advance from me and I'm sure from many other Kitcoites - posters and lurkers -- JTF

Choo!! Choo!!........ ( doppler effect ) ..............BONK!.....ugh.......

What I find intriguing is that the US markets statistically tend to be bullish before a major holiday -- the bearish trends usually occur after the holiday. This Thanksgiving looks different.

Gold stocks look very weak.

( 1 ) Projects of over 10,000 function points, 48% cancelled, the remainder average 13 months late.

( 2 ) Projects of over 100,000 function points, 65% cancelled, the remainder average 25 months late.

Does it bother anyone else that Chase Manhatten Bank's Y2K project is over 2 million function points? CitiCorp is 4 million?

And they started their projects only within the last year or so?

Will anyone trust these institutions to hold their assets after year end 1998?

And should there be bank runs, would it not be more prudent to have your assets in a form that cannot be devalued, debased, or created out of thin air?

Think about it.

Please let's be a little more precise in our comments, so as NOT to lead the uninformed astray.

ALL WORLD CURRENCIES - i.e. the Whole Enchilada - have a Total DAILY Trading Volume of about $1.2 Trillion. But that represents the total traded of all cureencies. There are upwards of 200 or more countries in the world. But let us assume there are only 120 countries whose currencies are trading. It follows then, that ON THE AVERAGE each currency trades about $10 Billion per day. Now GOLD trades about 40,000,000 ounces per day. And at $300 per ounce, the DAILY GOLD TRADING VALUE IS $12 BILLION... obviously, there is 20% more GOLD CURRENCY trading than the average currency traded.

I repeat, GOLD IS A CURRENCY - GOLD IS MONEY!

My question is this: Can you direct us to some information -- such as a policy at the BIS, IMF, world bank, etc., that we can review so we can understand the two tier system you describe: dollar-gold, or dollar-oil?

Two tier systems are complicated, so rules of trade have to be written down somewhere.

It is apparent from SDRer's work that a two-tier system has at times been set up with the SDR.

I hope you understand my concern -- you are always telling us to buy gold -- but you are not giving us information to understand what is happening. Ignorance breeds fear, but knowledge breeds understanding of what we are up against. Any clues would be appreciated.

Date: Mon Nov 24 1997 21:08

Allen ( USA ) ( @Another ( Thoughts! ) and all RE: Mercantilism ) ID#255190:

Allen,

The US$ is today, backed by oil. As all other currencies are but “digital units”

tied directly to the dollar, they are indirectly on the oil standard also. This world

currency position is supported thru the BIS. In CB circles, it is well known

that the world debt markets as we know them, can only be maintained with

cheap and cheaper oil! Without cheap oil the entire system fails and reverts back

to pay as you go economies. This is the central reason for “two price gold”.

With gold discounted to it’s production cost and below, those that have it can

trade it for it’s monetary value. Make no mistake, the BIS knows gold in the

many thousands. The future “reset value” of gold is the key.

“support the dollar with oil and the currency system works”

“fail the currencies and the dollar will come off the oil standard and the BIS will

reset gold to $10,000+ with many conditions”

That is why they continue to accept the dollar as a reserve. If Japan or any other

COUNTRY sells US treasury debt it’s all over!

G'Day to all from Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.

Keys words.... Rothchilds, daily gold price, Barclays Bank, Midland Bank, Standard Charter Bank, Bank of England and its Governor, RTZ, Anglo American Corporation, physical vacuum of two - three years gold production, Nikkei on the drop, US and other markets still high, low gold price, market crash, GOLD ?!........

The Economist is basically the voice of a GOLD CARTEL.

Things are getting a little tough in the WA gold mining scene, but a general feeling of gold will go.... the question is when.

It should get very interesting if and when the Nikkei drops towards and possibly below 15000 points.

I do not share your liking and your respect for

the Economist. I think they are a bunch of bums, and

one of the world's greatest counter indicators.

The 1993 gold bull run started within a week of an

Economist article urging all gold holders to sell.

If the Economist doesnt like it, then it CANT be

all bad. I take your bad news as good news.

By the way, big announcement here. Seems like

Anglos just bought everybody they could find.

- Waiting for smoke to clear.Will advise when I have

THE FACTS.

by Markus.

I, in much the same way must have “ANOTHER”

post my thoughts as position will not allow open

expression.

Mr. Markus Angelicus,

Checkmate is the end of a game, but in life checkmate

is the beginning of freedom! I submit that all of history is

full of war. From nations to single persons we all do

battle over ownership of things. Some support not war

but would kill to keep what is theirs! It would seem

that from the day of birth our financial chaos begins. The

end of our struggle is reached but for a moment in time

as “checkmate” becomes “stalemate” and fortunate and

free are the few who find this time in life!

Am I misleading? I submit to you that all of creation is

misleading. It is only in the pages of history that we find

those who thought the truth! The “facts” of the present

are but a wonder to all. Only time will prove all things.

Sir, you write,

“Your gold coins in your pocket will become the

target of persecution and arrests and you will be forced

to accept the world's standard currency. There will be

no alternative...you will be unable to trade with your gold

because they will have long outlawed both gold and old

paper currency....”

In the past many world governments and leaders, far greater

than those today have embraced these thoughts. I and my

fathers have done battle with such evil and won! For we have

6,000 years of history as our armor!

For those who say gold is not an asset and is dead! I offer

you a fact: “Today, as you read this more gold is traded and

purchased than at any time in the history of the world.” This

ancient, world class money from the distant past is now to

be the most fought over asset of the future. In war and life,

gold will be your “CHECKMATE”!

Now....will the real 'flight-to-quality' please stand up...um...er...uh...dum, dee, dum...um...er...uh...........that's what I thought. What a dog! You will sink WAY before you swim. From the charts, tomorrow may be the day. But, I could be wrong...no really...ask the Spud ;- ) ....oh my.

away...zzzzzzzzzzzzz

Éßcountinggoldbarsforsaleinhissleep

John Disney - OK, you crusty old reprobate. Keep your secrets to yourself. :- )

Mo in To - Anyone can play. You have to get into the spirit, and contribute a piece of evidence.

Humor aside, for the moment, the whole purpose of this is to better understand the forces, both economic and otherwise, that are driving the market. This is the only way to ensure that we end up on the right side of the trades, at the right time.

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/11/1124y2k.html

European Nations Head For Year 2000 Disaster

http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?WIR1997110510

Small Businesses Head For Year 2000 Disaster

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/1022y2k.html

Japanese Delay Year 2000 Fix, Spark Western Alarm

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/10202000.html

Most Fortune 500s Not Working On Year 2000 Fix

http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/1010y2k.html

I think this is the first time I've ever read one of your posts actually say that gold prices go in cycles, and that it will eventually go up.

How about making some comments about what the conditions might be for the gold bear to become bullish?

The run up in silver last week was driven primarily by a rumor that George Soros has been buying up silver quietly and would take delivery of 20 - 30 million ounces next week. If this were true, the feared run on COMEX stocks is underway and silver would explode above $6.00.

A great story, that, but one that does little to inspire confidence in the current bull run. On the face of it, the story has all the markings of a bull trap and a sucker play to get the market loaded with longs, then crush them all like the insolent and greedy little bugs they are.

I think I used the term vicious to describe the potential for a quick and nasty ( for those of us holding shorts ) run up in silver last week Since COMEX and NYMEX are closed Friday, first delivery notice for the December contract is Wednesday, a trading day cut short by the holiday schedule. If the squeeze is on, we'll see it by then, if the rally fails, look for another test of the recent lows 4.70 - 4.80.

I'm very suspicious of the warehouse numbers and do not believe they reflect the true amount of silver available for delivery. The Soros story is even less likely; the man wants profits, not silver. Why take delivery instead of profits on some very fat longs? If silver doesn't break out by Wednesday, I'll look to add new shorts.

Gold is still dead for the rest of the year, doomed for new lows. Platinum will reward those who stay with it. We have seen $600 + platinum many times before, it would not be an extraordinary event to see it again, and soon.