- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:58
JTF U>(@Home - wondering about Barron's article this weekend on options risk.) ID#57232: - sharefin: Thanks for posting ANOTHER's posts.
sharefin, all: I have not read the Barron's article on options. I think that put insurance may not work precisely as expected, similar to what happened in 1987. Options markets lockup is likely during a rapid downturn. My guess is that what will happen is that individual contracts will be honored, but the prices offered will not be what all the risk calculators thought they would be before the downturn.
Those put option buyers who are hedging large long market portfolios are most likely to be at risk, not those who just buy put options.
Perhaps there are others who can address this issue better than I, since I am new to this options trading business, and trade only small amounts.
I wonder -- how many investors bought puts to cover their long investments, rather than simply park their money in cash? Could be interesting when everything unwinds.
I did see magikelf's comments on 11/21. Interesting!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:55
tolerant1 U>(Namaste') ID#31868: - I say good evening to you all.
May the last voice you hear be that of a loved one.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:47
tolerant1 U>(all) ID#31868: - The leaders we seek look at each and every one of us as we glance into the mirror.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:46
Cyb Jeddak U>(Gold Bottom) ID#287193: - Gold bottom fishing. Now is the time. Gold bullion has tested the 1985 low and held so far. The gold juniors have crashed to 52 week lows. A move to $ 280 gold would not last long. The CB's would have to shoulder the supply load with out supply from mines as they would largely be unprofitable. The insider buying versus speculator selling short is going to catapult gold and gold shares much higher from this level. In short a move to $ 280 would be very bullish.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:44
themissinglink__A U>(Deflation/inflation?) ID#373403: - Scenario 1 ) Deflating world currencies bring CPI down, force governments to deflate in response to be competitive.
Scenario 2 ) Threat of U.S.Treasuries coming home or being monetized is inflationary. Domestic production is expensive with overseas devaluations.
Which will happen, or both? Is the U.S. Dollar set for wild gyrations while these two opposing forces compete?
Steve - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:43
IDT U>(IDT on Kudlow) ID#228128: - I wish Kudlow would stop putting that Penzoil in his hair. He seems to be afraid that someone will put him into a headlock at any moment and wants to be able to slip out of it. He did appear a bit nervous didn't he.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:42
223 U>(Crystal Ball re 20:47 post:) ID#263259: - HA! I wish I was downunder. I'll bet they've never heard of sleet and frozen rain, ice and snow. No, it would be nice to just find a mailorder house in the midwest which stocks Mexican coins. I'd post my email address for you, but I'm afraid that one of the local crackheads might somehow find out and decide to relieve me of my silversmithing tools. Penalty of living in the land of the free, don't you know.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:37
tolerant1 U>(JTF) ID#31868: - My point exactly. Who among us does the correct thing by purchasing the ill begotten woe of another through political folly? Where is our collective will? Why should we expect strength?
I am Japanese but through other eyes in a few weeks time. Why should I castigate them for that which I should have owned up to a long time ago. We are all to pay for our collective sins in different economies of scale, language and measure of responsilbility.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:27
JTF U>() ID#57232: - tolerant1: I think what the writer meant by that last sentence is that the Japanese leaders will have to act decisively to solve the problems they have, in close coordination with the international banking ( financial ) community. The time has ended for complex, secretive interlinking methods of finance/business in Japan.
Another comment before that last sentence referred to the need for rapid reopening of markets in SE Asia, so the US would not become the only market for SE Asian goods. To me, this is the most disturbing comment of all, because the IMF does not have enough money to get SE Asia back on its feet quickly.
Relations between the SE Asian countries and the IMF Western world are not likely to be good as a consequence of the currency crisis, regardless of who was at fault -- the western world upset by the Tsunami of cheap SE Asian goods, and the SE Asian world by not getting what they expected from the IMF.
Did you know that in our neighborhood food store today, I saw Korean TV sets and VCR's on sale for $75US? Quite a deal! Last month we bought a VCR ( SONY ) for $150, so we don't need one. The goods Tsunami is already here, I think.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:22
Bill El Zebub U>(markets capitulation/gold rebound) ID#263276: - Listening to CNBC Sunday 5:30 central L. Kudlow, J. Rogers ( sp ) ,
Bill Wolman.
Kudlow : ( republican ) , sounded scared and espoused beliefs
that gold was in the pits, commodities down , bonds up...all is well.
Rogers : bleak X-Mas , inflation to come , trade deficit at all time high.
Bill Wolman : deflation due to world economies spiraling down. Kudlow
did draw anology to previous gold bottom!! Believes oil will drop
but still said previous gold bottom!! Circa 199...something.
World economies, trade deficit, et. al. all a big problem.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:19
pdeep U>(flight to erewhon) ID#174103: - I keep hearing that US interest rates will benefit from the Asian debt liquidation because of a flight to quality. Given the scale of just the South Korean bail-out, ( $20 b, $40 b, $80 b? ) exactly where is this liquidity going to come from? Add to this the possibility of a few more Japanese banks and securities firms with heavy investments in South Korea going belly up, numerous others looking at a couple of hundred billion dollars in non-performing South Korean loans, and I suspect we may wake up to hear a giant sucking sound, as T-bills get cashed, the cash gets repatriated and used to shore up the red-ink dripping ledgers, while our real interest rates skyrocket.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:15
tolerant1 U>(sharefin) ID#31868: - Thank you.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:14
tolerant1 U>(All) ID#31868: - Blaming Tokyo for the world's financial woes would make the accuser a whore of political means, ways and a seeker of gains in the face of suffering we should all endure.
Reverse the comment of Christ when he spoke at the wall of stoning when the whore was the accused.
Stand tall in the mirror. For what you see is us.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:12
sharefin U>(ANOTHER's comments) ID#284255: - Tollerant
I think that the US markets have a half day Friday.
To all who missed it.
A html file of, I think, all ANOTHER's comments.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:08
kiwi U>(Yamaitchy and gold) ID#194311: - anybody know of trades made by Yama. on the gold market, i.e. how does it affect gold directly or more interestingly are they involved in the gold derivatives plays?
I think when Yama. various derivative positions in all markets are liquidated or not honoured by debtors then the ball really gets rolling.
Hurricane gold turning slowly but surely.... - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:07
tolerant1 U>(AllSuch an approach will require political courage. But dodging the issues will not ) ID#31868: - Such an approach will require political courage. But dodging the issues will not mean they go away. It will simply accelerate the erosion of confidence.
This is a quote from the last post.
Would anyone with a brain tell me what this says. Please. I am not that bright, but I can see a milktoast when I see one.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:06
Tyler Rose U>(@Qestor) ID#373164: -
Thank you, Qestor. Do you what the physical size of the gold bar or bars would be? I am interested to know if I can easily store it in my safe deposit box.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 23:02
SDRer__A U>() ID#28594: -
JTF: Dollar and Gold; forceful arguments presented with the usual JTF aplomb! Bravo!
From FT--A Way Out of Asia Crisis?
A way out of Asia's crisisrea's decision to turn to the International Monetary Fund and the collapse of Yamaichi Securities in Japan open a new and dangerous phase in Asia's economic crisis. Handled well, these events could point the way to resolving the region's financial difficulties. But if the Japanese, Korean and international authorities fumble them, the consequences for world markets will be dire.
A heavy responsibility rests today in Tokyo, where the government and the
Bank of Japan are to announce measures to ease the shock of Yamaichi's
closure; and in Vancouver, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation
forum is holding its annual summit.
In shoring up confidence, the authorities face three difficult tasks, all of equal importance. First, they need to demonstrate now that they have a coherent strategy that will allow failing companies and banks to go to the wall without dragging the countries' entire financial system down with them.
Second, the governments in Tokyo and Seoul must come clean about the
scale of their economic problems and show greater understanding than has
been evident to date of the far-reaching policy changes required to solve them.
Third, US and European leaders Europe must offer unwavering support for
countries prepared to make such changes. They will have to dig deep to
provide the funds to support International Monetary Fund programmes,
market reforms and economic revival across the region. And they must show
renewed commitment to free trade, since Asia's ability to export will be central
to its recovery.
Of the two immediate problems, Korea is if anything the more straightforward.
Seoul's decision to seek IMF assistance was inevitable given the Korean
government's failure to produce convincing reforms. Nonetheless, an IMF
programme will be contentious at home, and more expensive for industrial
countries than the government's initial request for $20bn implies. Whether a
programme will work is also uncertain: experience in other Asian countries
that have sought the Fund's imprimatur in recent weeks - Thailand and
Indonesia - is not unequivocally encouraging.
As for Japan, the picture remains murkier. The decision to let Yamaichi
Securities go bankrupt is both salutary and risky. It will be salutary if it and the
collapse last week of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank mark the start of a
thought-through effort to weed out failing banks. It will be dangerous,
however, if it is not accompanied by a convincing plan to limit the damage to
depositors, customers and counter-parties.
Yamaichi may not be hugely significant in itself, but there is a real risk of
contagion from its collapse. Investors need to be persuaded that the
authorities are prepared to use public money on a large scale to maintain
confidence in the banking system. This will not be politically popular, but there
is no alternative. The trouble is that the government's public flip-flops last
week - accompanied by unprecedented swings in the stock market - have
very nearly destroyed confidence that it can get a grip.
Nor will pouring in public money itself produce a lasting improvement, unless it
is accompanied by a transformation in the transparency and regulation of the
financial sector. Yamaichi's final demise, for instance, appears to have been
triggered by the discovery of hidden losses. How many more Japanese
institutions are carrying undisclosed holes in their balance sheets? How can
investors and customers deal confidently with them while they do not know?
The only people who can ultimately resolve these issues are the men who run
the Japanese government. But the outside world has a responsibility to press
them urgently to do so. This is where the Apec summit comes in. President Bill
Clinton should tell Ryutaro Hashimoto, Japan's prime minister, in the most
direct terms that containing the regional crisis depends crucially on action by
Japan.
Beyond that, the summit can do three things to improve sentiment. First, it
should endorse last week's Manila agreement by finance ministry officials that
the IMF should take the lead in organising country rescues and setting
appropriate adjustment conditions.
Second, leaders must confirm that regional governments are committed to
open markets and will not use the crisis to delay liberalisation. In particular,
they should pledge to pursue a World Trade Organisation agreement on
financial services liberalisation.
Painful adjustment
And third, the summit should acknowledge the need to sustain domestic
demand in countries which face the most painful adjustment in living memory.
It is not in anyone's interest for the US to become the export dumping ground
for Asian manufacturers who cannot sell their products at home. Everybody
would benefit from revival of demand in Asia itself.
Such an approach will require political courage. But dodging the issues will not
mean they go away. It will simply accelerate the erosion of confidence - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:57
Qestor@Observations U>(Tyler Rose re: Delivery) ID#223146: - To answer your qestion on taking delivery on a gold contract at the comex
one must first have taken a long position on the December future at some price say US$304. First notice date is friday November 28. This means that a party who holds a short position on the December future may notice you that they are delivering the contracted amount of gold. You should notify you broker that you are taking delivery. He will request funds to cover the cost of 100 oz at US$304/oz. He will also ask for instructions as to which depositary you want the gold kept. From the depositary you can make further transfer request. Please note that the physical bar of gold delivered may have more or less than 100ozs and your dollar account will be adjusted to the actual delivered quantity. Hope this helps - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:56
News Server U>(Did We Find Big Trader? ) ID#390100: -
This might interest you. Scroll down to third story entitled Once Upon a Time... http://www.asia1.com.sg/biztimes/1/msimagr.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:53
MoReGoLd U>(@Kitco Meetings) ID#348286: - DJ, arden: When the bell finally tolls, KITCO will be the place to be.
The outsiders will seek guidance, and they will get their answers here.
The biggest problem will be that the server won't be able to handle it... - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:52
Liberty U>(Silver and Gold coin sales) ID#263379: - We're expecting a big week in coin sales, especially Silver coin if the silver market continues it's powerful uptrend. We've also noticed strong interest in Gold recently. In time, the larger market, bigger players will awake to the reality that consumers have a renewed interest in precious metal investments. When that happens, leveraged purcahses will be on the call side instead of the put side. This trend is already ocurring in silver.
Coin sales have been getting increasingly stronger for a year now. We feel a big breakout is coming. the situation may repeat the metals bull of 1980, but hopefully, it will be a more sustained, healthy bull market this time around. We're watching world financial institutions closely. Love this forum, carry on PM buyers!
VCC
vccoin@aol.com
http://www.vccoin.com
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:49
JTF U>(OPEC and Oil) ID#57232: - 6pak: Your post on Saudi Arabia wanting to increase oil production is interesting! The world supply of oil is now very diverse, making it hard for any one supplier, or even OPEC itself, to corner oil.
I suggest another scenario -- that oil prices could drop next year, due to increased need for hard cash by the oil producers, and reduced demand, due to reduced consumption by SE Asia - provided there is no military crisis in the Middle East.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:40
tolerant1 U>(All) ID#31868: - Another makes a fatal error.
The will of free people.
His/her response will tell all.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:37
MoReGoLd U>(@The failure of Yamaichi dwarfs similar crises that have hit the financial world ) ID#348286: - +++ THE BIGGEST IS YET TO COME!
Focus-Yamaichi shuts, finance world holds breath
By Tsukasa Maekawa 9:40 pm Eastern Time
TOKYO, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Yamaichi Securities announced on Monday it would shut down, setting off a government offensive to assure a nervous world that Japan's biggest financial failure since World War Two was not the start of meltdown in Japan Inc.
With Japan's own markets shut for a national holiday, there were no immediate clear signs of how international markets were coping with news of the closure of the country's oldest brokerage.
The final nail was driven into Yamaichi's coffin at an early morning board of directors meeting who took less than an hour to decide voluntary liquidation was the only answer to a credit crunch, shrinking business and a racketeer scandal that has left Japan's fourth largest brokerage under a pile of debt.
Yamaichi said on Monday its assets had fallen by 264.8 billion yen ( $2.10 billion ) from 3.67 trillion yen ( $29.1 billion ) as of the end of September.
The failure of Yamaichi dwarfs similar crises that have hit the financial world, including the 1990 closure of New York investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert.
The Ministry of Finance ( MOF ) said some of Yamaichi's operations would halt as early as Tuesday while the Bank of Japan assured depositors their money would be protected.
But the fear that Japan might be the next Asian domino to fall kept international financiers, already dealing with a crisis in South Korea, the world's 11th largest economy, and other Asian nations, on edge.
``I think the problem we have seen is perhaps far less than the actual problem. I think the market is actually expecting more problems to come,'' said Stanley Wong, Treasurer of Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.
``I don't see any good news coming out of Tokyo,'' he told Reuters Financial Television ( RFTV ) .
In Sydney, David Bassanese, senior economist for Bankers Trust Australia, said Yamaichi's failure showed Asia's malaise was spreading from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia into the richest parts of the region.
``I think the concern now is that the contagion is spreading into northeast Asia,'' he told RFTV.
Japanese officials did their best to contain the fallout and assure the world there was no need for panic.
``We will take all necessary steps to cope with any situation in a bid to maintain stability in the financial system,'' Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka told reporters.
The case of Yamaichi is a serious matter, he added.
In Vancouver, where Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto arrives for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) meeting later on Monday, his spokesman said the world should not lose faith in Japan.
``I think Japan's economic fundamentals are in principle still sound,'' spokesman Hiroshi Hashimoto told RFTV in Vancouver.
The Finance Ministry and central bank have contacted overseas authorities to alleviate global concerns, especially in U.S. and European markets.
The Yamaichi crisis follows the collapse in the past month of second-tier brokerage Sanyo Securities Co Ltd and 10th-ranking commercial bank Hokkaido Takushoku Bank.
Yamaichi fell in the centenary year of a Japanese household name that has a staff of 7,500 at home and in 33 branches abroad.
Critics are unanimous that Japan's financial system is in urgent need of reform, deregulation and closer supervision.
At its core, the liquidity crunch faced by Yamaichi, had been driven by concern that creditors could not pin down just how large the brokerage's potential losses could become.
``It's a story of lack of sufficient disclosure and supervision, said James Fiorillo, senior banking analyst at ING Barings in Tokyo.
A Finance Ministry official said on Saturday there were suspicions of vast off-balance sheet liabilities exceeding 200 billion yen ( $1.58 billion ) from illegal trading practices.
But worries the numbers may be much larger, with possibly one trillion yen ( $7.9 billion ) accumulated from illegal deals since the 1980s, sank any bailout plan.
It is not the first time Yamaichi has been to the wall. It teetered on the verge of bankruptcy in 1965 when -- in the midst of a major stock market slump -- a newspaper report of financial woes caused panicked investors to demand money back.
Yamaichi stock dropped to 58 yen last Wednesday from around 500 yen earlier this year. It recovered to 102 yen at Friday's close.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:35
JTF U>(Colleen) ID#57232: - Colleen: Thanks for alerting me to ANOTHERS's posts today and yesterday. You are probably asleep at this time.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:32
tolerant1 U>(a.j.) ID#31868: - Me and mine are not those that would ask you to risk anything.
Clinton is garbage.
Everything in time.
And it grows short.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:29
JTF U>(Gold and the Dollar) ID#57232: - ANOTHER: You have been busy. You tell us over several posts in the last 24 hours that gold has been cornered because the Central banks will not sell any more gold, and that the LBMA will be no more.
I have two comments:
1 ) For gold to be cornered, all readily available ( above ground ) gold would have to be purchased by a group of individuals who will not sell their gold. According to Pierre Lassonde, ( The Gold Book Penguin Books, 1996 ) , the Central Banks own about 900 million ounces ( 1995 data ) , whereas total gold above ground holdings are approximately 3 billion ounces. My conclusion, given the basic nature of gold supply and demand, is that there is still much gold to be sold. The only question is the price.
The only way your scenario could possibly come true is if a catastrophe befell the US dollar, causing a sudden and complete loss in the confidence of its value. Simple inflation or a stock market crash could not do this. A gold corner could not do this either, because there cannot be one with over 2/3 of the gold outside the control of the central banks. It would have to be something else.
2 ) The LBMA is simply a gold clearing house, and not a bank. If the LBMA folds because of a currency crisis, there will be a period of turmoil, and then the LBMA will reopen, or another gold clearing house will take over, like Istanbul. The LBMA has been in operation for over 200 years, and has survived war and currency crises before. What is so special about the next crisis you forsee?
My last comment is that the world has seen numerous currency crises in the past. We have seen what is happening to currencies in SE Asia this year, and we have seen what happened to the Pound Sterling in the 30's. All of these currencies survived, admittedly battered, but they did emerge intact - unlike what you predict for the US dollar.
I do agree with you that a dollar crisis is coming, because that is the way it is most likely to happen. The Pound Sterling came before us. Historically, the people of the world tend to choose a premier currency over all others, and will refuse to use a sustitute until their currency falters seriously.
I would like for the US to stop using the dollar as the world's currency, because then we would have a better chance at resolving our debt problems.
On your comment about gold stocks -- that profits may vanish at some point -- I do admit that desperate governments could confiscate gold mines for their own use. I also admit that your point is well taken about anything that is linked to the government in some manner could be confiscated: Namely retirement accounts IRA's, 403b's,401ks, etc. Cash accounts would be less likely to be touched.
I think, given our historical ties to the UK, the scenario that unfolded during the 30's when the Pound Sterling faltered is more likely, however.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:28
SDRer__A U>(CEOs Meet) ID#28594: -
CEO summit: Asian business leaders fend off panic
MONDAY NOVEMBER 24 1997
By Scott Morrison, FT
Cautious optimism was not what organisers had in mind when they invited 200 top Pacific Rim executives to attend the CEO Summit, a parallel event to the Apec leaders' meeting, featuring seminars on technology transfers, business success strategies and implementing the Apec vision.
Panelists have largely stuck to their agendas during formal sessions, but
concern over the Asian crisis has inevitably crept into discussions and
dominated corridor conversations.
Asian business leaders have been subdued at the summit, perhaps still in
shock, other participants suggest. Visiting government officials have, however, provided upbeat assessments of the situation, although several executives suggested much of the rhetoric has been window dressing. The notable exception has been Hong Kong leader Tung Chee Hwa, who frankly acknowledged that Asian economies face a difficult period of recovery.
The consensus emerging from the gathering is that the economies of Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Korea could recover within about two years. Some of their comments appear to be more exaggerated than heartfelt confidence, but business leaders said they remain convinced that increasing investment and accelerating trade liberalisation are crucial to quickly overcoming the crisis.
Several participants suggested the crisis would be likely to speed up the
process, as countries requesting IMF aid will be forced to adopt more liberal and transparent policies.
The crisis adds to the urgency of moving ahead with policy liberalisation. A renewed commitment to liberalisation is really essential to restore market confidence, said Fred Bergsten, of the Institute for International Economics.
Several North American executives said they regard the current turmoil as a potential opportunity to invest in the region. Indeed, in corridors outside seminar rooms, North American business leaders were networking with their Asian counterparts and in some cases could be overheard negotiating deals. I have not seen much slackening of the pace, said Michael Ducker, of Federal Express' Asia Pacific division.
Mr Bergsten said the wait and see approach was likely to continue unless business leaders concluded that the current situation presaged a much longer-run weakening of the Asian economies. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:10
Speed U>(conversion constants) ID#286199: - Tyler Rose: 1 Kilo = 32.15 troy ozs = 2.204 lbs
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 22:00
A.Goose U>(@pondCentral) ID#200201: - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:45
Tyler Rose ( Delivery ) ID#373164:
I am very interested in your experience in taking delivery of your Dec contract. Please keep us informed on all the details as they unfold. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:57
tolerant1 U>(good enough for me...) ID#31868: - Yesterday, the greatest question was decided which ever was debated in America; and a greater perhaps never was, nor will be, decided among men. A resolution was passed without one dissenting colony, that those United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States.
Letter to Mrs. Adams [July3, 1776}
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:50
SDRer__A U>(BOJ and the REAL Monday morning blues...) ID#28594: - Yamaichi: Tokyo moves to contain turmoil
MONDAY NOVEMBER 24 1997
By Gillian Tett in Tokyo
Bank of Japan directors will hold an emergency meeting this morning to agree steps to ensure that the collapse of Yamaichi, the country's fourth largest broker, does not spark a broader financial crisis.
The bank is likely to approve the provision of un-secured loans to protect Yamaichi's depositors in a move intended to avoid a collapse of confidence in the system, officials said.
In advance of the Bank of Japan's meeting, Yamaichi early today announced that it would cease business, becoming Japan's biggest corporate failure.
the company told Reuters the decision was taken at a board meeting which lasted less than an hour. The decision follows a severe liquidity crisis last week at the company, which has an estimated ¥3,200bn ( £15.3bn ) of liabilities.
The government was hoping to finalise a scheme for handling the failure before the financial markets open in London and New York today. Japan's markets are closed today, a public holiday.
Government officials yesterday indicated that Yamaichi Securities had some ¥3,200bn of liabilities. If affiliated companies were included, the total could be ¥6,000bn, they said. It also emerged that the company had more than ¥200bn off-balance sheet liabilities. These were concealed through a practice known as tobashi, where companies shift losses from one account to another. They had been hidden from Japanese regulators partly through companies in the Cayman Islands, officials said.
The Ministry of Finance said these hidden liabilities could be covered by the group's resources - the group had more than ¥400bn in its capital account, it said. The Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission, Japan's financial watchdog, was investigating. Criminal action has not been ruled out.
Yamaichi's collapse comes amid other signs of financial turmoil in Japan.
Sanyo Securities, the country's seventh-largest broker, and Hokkaido
Takushoku, the 10th largest commercial bank, also failed this month.
In Vancouver meanwhile, Japanese officials at the meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum ruled out any possibility that Ryutaro Hashimoto, Japan's prime minister, would discuss with other Apec leaders any details of Tokyo's plans to resolve its financial crisis.
In Japan, the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan pledged that the
¥24,000bn worth of customers' assets held by Yamaichi would be protected.
Signs emerged that the Yamaichi affair was spurring an acknowledgment
within Japan that public money would be needed to support the system.
Until recently, the idea was seen as politically unfeasible. But officials at the Bank of Japan and the finance ministry say privately they will back the use of public funds. And politicians from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic party said it had plans to raise the assets of the deposit insurance corporation - Japan's industry scheme for failures - through bonds.
The method of Yamaichi's closure is unclear. Industry sources have indicated that a voluntary liquidation is the likely option.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:45
Tyler Rose U>(Delivery) ID#373164: -
I am thinking about taking delivery of Comex gold for December. Has anyone done this? If so, how does one go about transferring it from the depository to my personal possession? The contract specifications state that delivery will be made in one bar or 3 one kilogram bars. How many pounds is that, and how large ( dimensions ) are the bar or bars? Thanks for your help.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:44
arden U>(kitco meetings) ID#201238: -
DJ - I have been involved in a number of clandestine meetings of Kitcodians during the last few months..Let me assure you that our agenda is ours and ours alone, much to the curiousity of the outside world. Those of us in the know have our plan and have placed it in action. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:44
panda U>(@) ID#30116: - FWIW -- Gold has been oversold for quit a while here. Does anyone find it odd that the Japanese news comes out just before the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.? The markets are closed in Japan for a holiday, so this leaves us with Tuesday, Wednesday and ( joke session ) Friday trading in the U.S.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:38
tolerant1 U>(The world is my country...) ID#31868: - Let the far and near all unite, with
a cheer,
In defence of our Liberty Tree.
Thomas Paine
{1737 - 1809 }
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:27
DJ U>(Kitco Annual Meeting) ID#215208: - The first annual meeting of Kitco - Pacific Northwest Region was just concluded. That is BillInOregon and I had lunch, with our wives. I suspect word of this meeting will leak out, and the volitility of the precious metals market will greatly increase as the major world players attempt to anticipate the outcome of this meeting, still held in highest secrecy.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:18
vronsky U>(YAMAICHI TO COMMIT HARI-KARI -- Followed by Hashimoto!) ID#426220: - YAMAICHI SECURITIES - 4th largest securities firm in Japan throws in the towel - BUSTED!! - KAPUTT!!!- BANKRUPT!!!!
Yamaichi has Yen24 TRILLION in Customers assets -- THAT’S US$190 BILLION!!!! Yamaichi’s liabilities TOP US$200 BILLION!!!! Who is going to be play the “PATSY” and foot the bill to make the customers whole again?!
A Nippon financial giant has fallen - it has requested from the Ministry of Finance to be allowed cease operations. Therefore, it must dump all positions.
If forced to shut-down, Yamaichi Securities must liquidate all positions. HOW MUCH US T-Bonds does it have in portfolio? See what the ultimate CONSEQUENCES will be for Japan, Land of the SETTING Sun:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:15
6pak U>(JAPAN @ Potential Losses of Yamaichi) ID#335190: - November 23, 1997
Focus-Major Japan brokerage Yamaichi to shut down
TOKYO, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Japan's oldest brokerage Yamaichi Securities announced on Monday it was going out of business in the country's biggest financial failure since World War Two.
A company spokesman told Reuters the decision was taken at an early morning board meeting, which lasted less than an hour.
With 3.67 trillion yen ( $29.13 billion ) in assets as of the end of September, the failure of Yamaichi dwarfs similar crises that have hit the financial world, including the 1990 closure of New York investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert.
Yamaichi, the Finance Ministry and the central bank all said they would hold news conferences on Monday morning.
Critics are unanimous that Japan's financial system is in urgent need of reform, deregulation and closer supervision -- and there is more bad news to come.
The initial reaction is likely to be selling pressure on the yen and equity markets and a firmer opening for U.S. Treasuries, said Kirit Shah, chief market strategist at Sanwa International in London, ahead of the decision.
The Finance Ministry and central bank have contacted overseas authorities to alleviate global concerns, especially in U.S. and European markets.
At its core, the liquidity crunch faced by Yamaichi, had been driven by concern that creditors could not pin down just how large the brokerage's potential losses could become.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/JAPAN-YAMAICHI.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:14
tolerant1 U>(aj) ID#31868: - The Eagle watches.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:12
BillD U>(@and the beat goes on...) ID#261269: - Tick/Tock:
South Korea
Seoul Composite
^KS11
9:11PM
456.04
-29.39
-6.05% - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:04
Jed U>(@Another and others) ID#69149: - I have two Philharmonics, 120 90% halves, 50 90% quarters, and 100 90% dimes for insurance purposes and as a last ditch source of funds to pay off any debts that I might still have if we either go ballistic with inflation and I can't get more dollars OR if we get deflation and I can use the gold to do the same. Is it a good start anyway?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 21:04
vronsky U>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - November 24, 1997) ID#426220: - True to form the oft CNBC financial celebrity, Gene Inger, makes for interesting reading of what happened last week in all the markets... and what we might expect in the coming round -
“Yamaichi's cessation of operations is the biggest failure in Japan since World War II. Japan's market is closed Monday, so we'll watch others for hints of any Tuesday impact. No doubt, based on the Nikkei futures Friday afternoon, Asian markets will again be turned into sushi, while those buying US stocks into strength might have to eat Crow instead of Turkey:”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:57
Crystal Ball U>(@223) ID#287367: - Southern Coin Investments ( SCI ) P.O. Box 720714, Dept CP
Atlanta, GA 30358-2714 ( USA ) Tel ( 770 ) 393-8000
has all world gold coins ( Aussie, Austrian ducat/corona/philharmonic, Belgian, Canuck, Chervonets 10 Ruble, English 1/2 Sovereign and sovereign ( old ) , Britannia ( 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 oz ) , French 20Fr, Hungarian, Isle of Man Angels ( 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 oz ) , Mexican 2, 2 1/2, 5, 10, 20, and 50 peso, Swiss Helvetia ( 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 oz ) , etc, etc.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:57
NJ U>(url) ID#352177: - elf : Thanks. Found it by the good old trial and error method.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:57
SDRer__A U>(A.Goose@pond.Central, your request re world currencies) ID#287277: -
515,000 ITL/Xau
178.7 GBP/Xau
525.3 DEM/XAU
38,368 JPY/XAU
1761 FRF/XAU
Chinese Renmimbi 2508 CNY/XAU
SDR 220.4 XDR/XAU
To: Dave@CO, Many thanks. I guess the worry list stays very long. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:50
NJ U>(thrills and Spills) ID#352177: - http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971123/business/stories/stocksweek_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:48
elf U>(sorry NJ) ID#33180: - sorry NJ: it doesn't appear as I pasted it
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:48
LGB2__A U>(Japan's woes inflationary?) ID#316409: - Perhaps this is too simplistic, but wouldn't large scale selling of Treasuries by Japan, be inflationary in the U.S. If we need to attract buyers for the paper, we'd have to raise our Treasury rates, no? This in turn means potential downturn and an eventual lowering of Fed fubds rate, corresponding monetary expansion, inflation?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:47
Crystal Ball U>(@223) ID#287367: - I'll try to find a source for you.Where are you located? Down under?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:46
elf U>(NJ: let's try that again) ID#33180: - http://www.kitcomm.com/beta@kitco.com/index.html>http://www.kitcomm.com/beta@kitco.com/index.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:46
6pak U>(OIL = GOLD @ OPECS floding the Market as per Saudi wants increase in oil) ID#335190: - November 23, 1997
Saudis shake OPEC with call for higher oil output
JAKARTA ( AP ) - OPEC faces a dilemma it has avoided for a few years: The world's top oil producer, Saudi Arabia, wants to pump more. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi is OPEC's most influential player, but his suggestion that the group raise its production ceiling, perhaps by two million barrels a day, will not sit well with some members worried that prices could fall.
Negotiations could be tricky if members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries end up fighting over new production quotas while trying to ensure they don't spook oil traders with the threat of a glutted market.
OPEC has made no major changes to its official production quotas since 1993. Some cosmetic adjustments were made in June 1996 to allow for limited crude oil exports by Iraq, which has been mostly shut out of the market since it invaded fellow OPEC member Kuwait in 1990. Iraq's recent jockeying with the United Nations over weapons inspections also will be discussed, though little is likely to come of the matter because Iraq's return to the market is not seen as an immediate threat.
OPEC still is missing its target of $21 US a barrel by about $2, but oil prices have held firm. The official OPEC production ceiling has stood at
25.033 million barrels a day since Iraq got partly back into the market.
However, experts believe widespread cheating by most OPEC members, led by Venezuela's massive overproduction, has pushed actual output to more than 27 million barrels a day.
Peter Bogin, an associate director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Paris, said a higher OPEC production ceiling likely would give markets only a brief worry. Strong world demand - rather than short-term greed by producers - is seen as driving the call for more oil.
It used to be a very negative sign - everybody saying, oh, OPEC's flooding the market, Bogin said. Now, it's a positive development. OPEC members are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and United Arab Emirates.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/WorldTicker/CANOE-wire.OPEC.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:45
elf U>(URL) ID#33180: - NJ: http://www.kitcomm.com/beta@kitco.com/index.html>http://www.kitcomm.com/beta@kitco.com/index.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:44
LGB2__A U>(Yamaichi, Question, is this positive news?) ID#316409: - I asked this yesterday and no one ventured an answer. Isn't the Yamaichi news, Good news for free market advocates, in that there isn't going to be the usual bailout from BOJ and their underlings? Isn't a departure from such manipulations, the very thing many here have been advocating in order to prevent worse problems in the future? I would think that this is a step in the right direction for Japan, letting Yamaichi crash and burn, can only lead to reforms and be better for their economy in the long run.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:42
NJ U>(kitco) ID#352177: - Lost my bookmarks. Can someone please post url for Kitco with price frames.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:41
Crystal Ball U>(@Australia to open financial sector further) ID#287367: - By Christopher Wilson
VANCOUVER, Nov 23 ( Reuters ) - Australian Prime Minister John Howard said on Sunday that his country would further open its financial services sector to foreign and domestic competition and he urged other nations to do the same.
Howard said his government was taking major new steps to create a more competitive and efficient financial sector, while at the same time preserving the integrity, security and fairness of the Australian financial system.
He told a meeting of some 250 corporate chief executives on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC )
forum annual meeting that the decision reflected recent developments in domestic policy flowing from his government's response to a major inquiry into Australia's financial system.
The technical details will be provided in Geneva shortly,
Howard said.
We are paving the way for greater participation and competition from traditional and non-traditional suppliers of financial services such as utilities and retailers by liberalizing the barriers within the financial system.
He urged other members of the 18-nation APEC group to step up efforts to meet a Dec. 12 World Trade Organization ( WTO )
deadline for a liberalization pact on financial services.
We're again faced with the challenge of finalizing a major trade liberalization negotiation in the WTO, said Howard.
APEC has the opportunity to play a decisive role in progressing it to a successful conclusion.
Referring to the currency and economic tumult sweeping Asia, the Australian prime minister said: This also presents us with the opportunity to send a powerful message that the region is firmly committed to reforming its financial markets.
There will be an immediate boost to confidence and in the longer term, benefits will flow from greater competition and more diversified financial merkets, he said.The markets will have a greater capacity to withstand any future shocks.
The United States and Canada have been urging developing economies in Asia and Latin America to go further in improving access to their financial services markets.
Senior WTO officials met recently for a round of bargaining in Geneva, but the deadline for the financial services agreement among 90 countries is fast approaching and participants expect the negotiations to go down to the wire.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:38
Crystal Ball U>(@Japan's economy sound as a dollar HA! HA! HA!) ID#287367: - VANCOUVER, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Japan's economic fundamentals remain sound despite the decision of its fourth largest brokerage, Yamaichi Securities Co, to cease operations, a spokesman for Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said on Monday.
I think Japan's economic fundamentals are in principle still sound, spokesman Hiroshi Hashimoto told Reuters Financial Television on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) meeting in Vancouver.
The spokesman said he expected the Ministry of Finance to take appropriate measures to deal with the Yamaichi closure, and that Japan's economy would ultimately be in a better position because of it. I think Japan can go through this period, and through further deregulation of the economy, and the economy will be better in the future, he said in the interview, which was monitored in Tokyo.
On the question of whether Japan would still be able to help its ailing Asian neighbours while going through its own domestic financial problems, the spokesman said it could.
Japan is economically a rather big power, he said. I think the MOF will be able to deal separately with domestic matters and aid to the outside countries.
He said Prime Minister Hashimoto, who leaves for Vancouver on Monday, would stress to other APEC leaders that despite economic and currency turmoil in many of the member countries, the group must push ahead with trade liberalisation.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:36
Crystal Ball U>(@US Stock Market) ID#287367: - By Cal Mankowski
NEW YORK, Nov 23 ( Reuters ) - U.S. stocks are expected to open lower Monday in the aftermath of the closing of Japan's fourth largest brokerage house, Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd, analysts said.
Foreign exchange traders said they expected the dollar to gain on the yen following the news from Tokyo.
My belief is that initially there will be a negative psychological impact on the stock market but not a significant decline, said Hugh Johnson, market strategist at First Albany Securities.
Johnson said long term interest rates may fall as the 30-year U.S. benchmark bond rises in price on a flight to quality. However, he said there is a danger that short term rates may rise if Yamaichi is forced to sell positions in short term Treasury bills. He said when banks and brokerages have failed in the past, there has been a tendency to sell the most liquid assets, which are short term government paper.
Johnson said that the seeds of Yamaichi's downfall were contained in the collapse of the Thai currency, the baht, earlier this year. We have to learn to live with these shocks, he said There will be more of them.
I think we'll see the dollar gradually strengthen. If it breaks the high seen earlier this year of 127.50, then it will probably go a bit above 130 over the next two to three months,
said John McCarthy, currency trader at ING Barings Capital Markets.
McCarthy noted that the dollar was trading at a level of 126.40 early Monday in Asia, not too far out of line with its close Friday afternoon in New York trading.
First Albany's Johnson noted one concern will be the effect of the Asian market turmoil on the revenues and earnings of U.S. multinational corporations. He added that there will be concerns over the lending exposure of global banks as the economies of Southeast Asia slow down.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:36
LGB2__A U>(Japan Yamaichi News, will Nikkei rise or fall? ) ID#316409: - unday November 23, 7:30 pm Eastern Time
Japan says Yamaichi shutdown shows economic change
VANCOUVER, Nov 23 ( Reuters ) - Japanese Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi said on Sunday that the shutdown
of Yamaichi Securities Co shows how big a change Japan is going through.
``In Japan, the fourth-largest securities company has stopped operations -- that is the kind of change Japan is
going through at the moment,'' a Foreign Ministry spokesman quoted Obuchi as saying in a meeting with U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.
Albright, who met Obuchi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) ministers meeting,
said it was important for Japan to restore confidence in its financial system.
Yamaichi, the smallest of Japan's ``Big Four'' brokerages, has decided to shut down its operations after judging
there to be no other way out of a crisis involving a credit crunch, shrinking business and a corporate racketeering
scandal.
The Ministry of Finance said the brokerage has said it intends to halt some of its operations on November 25.
Yamaichi's closure would be Japan's biggest financial failure since World War Two. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:34
LGB2__A U>(@ Sheller, Agree on Silver) ID#316409: - Mr. Shellmeister! We agree on Silver! I am so overjoyed by the chance to agree I had to say amen to the Silver vs. Gold philosophy. If you believe that someday you'll need precious metal coin for monetary purposes, silver is the way to go. Small, lot's of denominations, and great gain potential.
Personally, I prefer the older silver over junk silver, Mercury dimes, & Walking Liberty halves, because they have Numismatic value and a Numismatic floor, plus the premium you pay for them is really not much more than junk coin.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:30
Crystal Ball U>(@Trade Deficit) ID#287367: - By Glenn Somerville
Reuters
WASHINGTON ( Nov. 21 ) - The U.S. trade deficit shot up in September to its highest level in eight months, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, as trade with troubled Asian economies showed early signs of sharp deterioration.
The total deficit on trade in goods and services soared unexpectedly by 17 percent to $11.07 billion in September -- the highest since an $11.61 billion shortfall last January and well above Wall Street economists' forecasts for a $9.9 billion gap.
Asian economic and currency turmoil was just setting in during September and has since worsened, but there already were signs of it in the trade report as deficits with most of Asia widened, casting a cloud over future trade prospects.
A strong U.S. economy offers struggling overseas economies the chance to try to right their economic problems by selling more into the world's largest consumer market, while at the same time buying fewer American manufactured goods.
''This is sort of merely a foreshadowing of the deterioration of the trade picture that lies ahead,'' predicted Philip Braverman, an economist with DKB North American LLC in New York.
Total September imports rose 1.2 percent from August levels to a record $89.07 billion while exports weakened by 0.7 percent to $78 billion.
''It is consistent with what we've known before, that the world is ( economically ) weaker than the United States, so it reflects a strong economy here,'' said economist Astrid Adolfson of MCM MoneyWatch in New York.
The bilateral shortfall with China swelled 6.9 percent to a record $5.52 billion in September, once more the highest deficit with any country, partly because of continuing large volumes of toy imports in preparation for the Christmas shopping season. The monthly gap with Japan accelerated 13.4 percent to $5.13 billion.
Particularly evident was a doubling in the U.S. trade deficit with Newly Industrialized Countries including Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore to $2.02 billion in September -- the highest since a $2.1 billion gap in August 1992 -- from $956 million in August. The shortfall with South Korea, now trying to stabilize its economy, jumped to $408 million from $31 million in August.
Asian financial market turmoil and currency devaluations are expected to depress U.S. exports to the region for some time and potentially to heighten trade tensions with China and Japan that already were at a high level.
The Clinton administration has been pressing Japan relentlessly to stimulate its domestic market to buy more U.S. goods while also worrying about China's rapid emergence as an even more active trade dynamo than Japan.
Analysts warn that, as Asian countries try to export their way back to economic health, there was a risk that they will engage in competitive devaluations of their currencies to make their goods cheaper for Americans.
In particular, a depreciation of Japan's yen could balloon the U.S. imbalance on trade in coming months because of the big volume of cars and other consumer goods from that country on which Americans rely.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:28
Crystal Ball U>(@Asia's economic crisis) ID#287367: - By Nick Edwards
Reuters
SINGAPORE ( Nov. 21 ) - Asia's economic crisis has triggered a shift towards a more Western-style supervision of insurance solvency and capital levels, industry experts say.
Although insurers face at least two years of painful recovery from the fallout of a financial crisis that has rocked Asian economies, the systems that have crumbled would be replaced with more robust regulatory regimes.
While investment income and premiums were expected to fall in the wake of the financial crisis, losses would result from exposure to depreciating currencies and claims costs would rise.
Changing the regulatory focus to financial strength would see Asian insurers consolidate to compete on the international stage.
''The crisis has set Asia moving towards the Western model of building an industry that is strong in terms of solvency and capital,'' said Philip Moore, partner for financial institutions consulting with accountancy firm Coopers & Lybrand in Hong Kong.
The turmoil, entering its sixth month, has highlighted the relative weakness of some domestic Asian insurers with high exposure to plunges in stock and currency values.
REGULATORS HATE INSOLVENCIES
The position of some smaller insurers has become tenuous as slower premium flows hit, the result of falling incomes and the suspension of investment in key infrastructure projects.
The potential of a number of insurance failures has sparked a review of the need for more regulation of solvency and capital and less supervision of premium rates and product lines, the more typical regulatory style in Asia, Moore said.
''The one over-riding thing that a regulator hates is an insolvent company. It's the sort of thing that gets an insurance commissioner hauled up before his minister and sacked,'' Moore told Reuters in a telephone interview.
''You can hear regulators around Asia saying they want consolidation. They want bigger companies, better capitalized,'' Moore said.
Prudential governance, strong solvency, high capitalization and good transparency are key elements of the Western system.
They are getting higher on Asia's agenda as the influence of the International Monetary Fund grows through the billions of dollars it is pumping into the region to resolve the crisis.
ASIAN INSURERS UNDER INCREASING SCRUTINY
''I think transparency is very important,'' said Henning Schulte-Noelle, Allianz AG chief executive, in a written response to questions.
Schulte-Noelle, on a regional tour, said ''transparency will benefit not only foreign investors but also the individual countries within Asia.''
Asian insurers have fallen under increasing scrutiny since the 200 billion yen ( US$1.6 billion ) collapse of Japan's Nissan Mutual Life in April.
Concern has been exacerbated by a financial crisis that has erased billions from stock values and sent currencies plunging against the U.S. dollar, two principal investment instruments.
Regulators in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand want to see their financial institutions strengthen to better compete in the face of international competition.
Competition is guaranteed to come as Asian markets liberalise and its arrival could be speeded by active searches for foreign funds to prop-up flagging domestic insurers.
Singapore made the latest move last week, bumping up the minimum paid-up capital requirements for insurers and reinsurers to Singapore $25 million ( US$15.8 million ) from the previous S$5 million and S$10 million respectively.
This followed Indonesia's announcement in October of tough new insurance rules to take effect from January 1, 1998 to bolster the financial security of domestic insurers.
''We want to ensure better stability for our insurance companies. Our concern is the financial strength behind the companies,'' M.A. Suyoto, head of the insurance directorate at Indonesia's Directorate General of Financial Institutions, said.
South Korea has raised its minimum capital requirements for life insurers to 30 billion won from 10 billion won and said it would allow its top five conglomerates or chaebols to enter the life insurance market, but only if they acquired at least one insolvent insurer, or merged three or more insolvent companies.
The sixth biggest life insurance market in the world, South Korea is plagued by serious shortfalls in policy reserves in 17 of its 33 life insurers.
THAI INSURERS FACE BIG PROBLEMS
Thai insurers face some of the biggest problems because of the double whammy which the suspension of 58 finance firms brings -- they can neither invest in insurers or make loans for cars, the insurance of which represents about 60 percent of the Thai market.
According to Pichit Mekkittikul, president of the Thai Insurance Brokers Association, a shakeout was certain.
''There will be consolidation. We've already got too many insurance companies operating, but the most important thing is how the regulators will control solvency margins,'' he said.
But instability could also be read as an opportunity for investment, especially if the new Thai government accelerates proposals to raise the limit for foreign investment domestic insurers to 49 percent from 25 percent.
''It would do a lot for the psychology of the market in Thailand. We are still actively looking for partners and investment opportunities,'' said Patrick Dutrey Asia-Pacific senior regional vice president for Axa-UAP. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:27
Dave in CO U>(Y2K effects on military) ID#215211: - SDRer_A:
Gary North predicts Y2K problems for military:
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/results_.cfm/military
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:26
Crystal Ball U>(@Korea and IMF ) ID#287367: - By Sarah Davison
Reuters
HONG KONG ( Nov. 21 ) - Financial markets were cheering news of South Korean talks with the International Monetary Fund on Friday, but some market players said any IMF bail-out would be fraught with difficulty.
''The world is bigger than Korea, so there's the money to do it,'' said Daniel Hemmant, currency fund manager at Guinness Flight Hambro Asia.
But following a US$17.2 billion bail-out for Thailand, a US$40 billion bail-out for Indonesia, questions were being asked about the implications of raising funds for Korea.
A South Korean bail-out would be so large it would depress global liquidity. South Korean media have quoted figures of around $50 billion to $60 billion
''We're starting to talk significant numbers here, and this doesn't just materialise. It has to come from somewhere,'' Hemmand said.
''From a pure market perspective, cash has got to get raised from somewhere and that's irrespective of the knock-on macroeconomic impact of Korea going down the tubes. It is potentially quite a big negative. It reduces global liquidity.''
Analysts in Hong Kong said the issue of moral hazard had become particularly pronounced in South Korea's case. The nation's refusal to confront the need for external assistance until the last minute and its apparent avoidance of the IMF had done little to win support from potential lenders.
South Korea's public musings about the effect of threatened contagion upon Japan's economy would also do little to support requests for Japanese aid.
''Well, the Japanese have ( the resources to help bail out Korea ) but if the Japanese aren't spending public money bailing out their own banks it's a bit of a question mark whether they'll do it for the Koreans,'' Hemmant said.
Despite the implicit and very real threat of contagion to Japan's troubled economy, observers said South Korea still had a number of options to deal with the problem of rapidly maturing foreign-denominated debt issued by its corporations and commercial banks, above and beyond foreign assistance.
''Everyone who is in the hole is saying 'We can't pay for it,''' said Marshall Mays, regional strategist at Nikko Research Centre. ''Well, that depends what you're trying to do.''
There were essentially two options, Mays said. One would involve a quick writedown of assets supported by foreign money in order to avoid recession and an impact on global trade.
''That's the easy solution,'' Mays said.
The second was the Japanese model, where funding to write down assets was raised domestically aided by the central bank, which reduced lending rates to very low levels while keeping deposit rates high, allowing commercial banks to use the spread to fund write-offs of bad loans.
The problem with the second solution was a prolonged recession that would force South Korea to keep its won weak to support a vital exports sector.
''It means the economy doesn't grow very fast, it can't import as much as it did before, that affects the world trade outlook with lower demand and cheaper output. That's the risk people are worried about right now,'' he said.
One thing the IMF should do, Mays said, was insist that South Korea take a good proportion of the debt issued by commercial banks and conglomerates onto its own books.
Korea's inbred structure, with banks lending to designated conglomerates on government orders, gave a virtual government guarantee to much of Korea's debt burden even though Korea's sovereign rating was much stronger than those of its banks.
''The Korean government could nationalise a lot of the debt. The government rating would go to single B overnight. But that would solve the problem,'' Mays said.
''Whether that would be allowed I don't know, but it is an easy way to ( clear ) it off if the government assumed half or a quarter of debt of these banks with another half or a quarter written down, leaving a huge public debt in Korea,'' he said.
However, this is also an inflationary solution, requiring the printing of money that would depress the currency.
Writing down all Korea's assets overnight is not an option because it would precipitate market instability, he said.
A process of containment, of progressive government intervention, forced if need be, to switch the debts into a ''segregated fund'' was required, Mays said.
The fund buys assets of the banks at a discount, or at a reasonable estimate of what they are worth in the market in anticipation of a turnaround in the economy that would allow profits on the sale of distressed debt.
Mays said how to fund the segregation fund until the economy turns around allowing a decent return on the investment remained the issue.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:21
223 U>(Crystal Ball and Mike, continuing philosophical talk) ID#263259: - CB: Where would one look for the Mexican coins? They aren't widely traded in my part of the world.
Mike: I think that if silver reaches a stable $50/ounce level in a world without capable banking then there would probably be a sufficient inflation of bronze or copper or even lead or tin to make real value coins from. Tin would be my bet as it is nonpoisonous and has numerous uses. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:18
A.Goose U>(who's next) ID#200174: - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:02
SDRer__A ( A.Goose@pond.Central ) ID#286249:
Great idea, a new fun game Which financial institution will topple?
My guess is that we will see the crisis jump overseas. The next institution could well be in Europe ... United Kingdom possibly Ing ( sp ) the group that bought baring's assets. ( just a wild guess ) - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:03
Crystal Ball U>(@Mike Sheller) ID#287367: - I concur. The Mexican dos ( 2 ) -pesos coin contains 1.6666 gms. 0.9 fine gold, 0.0482 ounce AGW and cost in the mid-$20 range. The Mexican dos y medio ( 2 1/2 ) pesos coin contains 2.0833 gms. 0.9 fine gold, 0.0602 ounce AGW and cost around $30. The cinco ( 5 ) pesos coin contains 4.1666 gms. 0.9 fine gold, 0.1205 ounce AGW, and costs in the low $60 range. Anyobe, and I mean, *ANYONE*, can afford these coins.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 20:02
SDRer__A U>(A.Goose@pond.Central) ID#286249: -
Interesting article about the currency fund being started by CHINA!
The Panda awakens?
So, would you care to identify the order in which the dominos will fall....
Does Yamaichi tip over Fuji Bank? The Fuyo Group?
Kiwi@NZ: I think the political pronouncements are in inverse proportion to the fear level. The more banal the pronouncement the higher the fear.
Of course, banality being such common political coin, it is difficult to make acute judgments...most particularly for those of us in the US.
To: Tolerant1@Wise
Your post re: Chinese army on our shores, reminded me of an article read some while ago about the Y2K problems of the American Armed Forces, to whit, the programming that runs all those hi-tech wonders is proprietary, complex and ‘old’ as software goes; the upshot being that in 2000 we might be effectively dis-armed. Is this something I should REALLY worry about, or should I remove it from my over-long Worry-List?
Thank you.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:56
6pak U>((JAPAN & Europe 1947) @ Marshall Plan--Russia NO== Congress YES) ID#335190: - Whoever issues money has many economic and political advantages. We are presently seeing a hidden battle between gold and the U.S. dollar. This battle will continue to intensify until the crash in Asia is complete. The key to financial independence is to know who will win this battle.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html
ADDRESS BY GENERAL GEORGE C. MARSHALL
SECRETARY OF STATE OF THE UNITED STATES
AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY, JUNE 5, 1947
I need not tell you, gentlemen, that the world situation is very serious. That must be apparent to all intelligent people. I think one difficulty is that the problem is one of such enormous complexity that the very mass of facts presented to the public by press and radio make it exceedingly difficult for the man in the street to reach a clear appraisement of the situation.
Furthermore, the people of this country are distant from the troubled areas of the earth and it is hard for them to comprehend the plight and consequent reactions of the long-suffering peoples, and the effect of those reactions on their governments in connection with our efforts to promote peace in the world.
http://www.oecd.org/about/ms-eng2.htm
The Marshall Plan ( 1947 )
On June 5, 1947, Secretary of State George C. Marshall spoke at Harvard University and outlined what would become known as the Marshall Plan. Europe, still devastated by the war, had just survived one of the worst winters on record. The nations of Europe had nothing to sell for hard currency, and the democratic socialist governments in most countries were unwilling to adopt the draconian proposals for recovery advocated by old-line classical economists. Something had to be done, both for humanitarian reasons and also to stop the potential spread of communism westward.
The United States offered up to $20 billion for relief, but only if the European nations could get together and draw up a rational plan on how they would use the aid. For the first time, they would have to act as a single economic unit; they would have to cooperate with each other. Marshall also offered aid to the Soviet Union and its allies in eastern Europe, but Stalin denounced the program as a trick and refused to participate. The Russian rejection probably made passage of the measure through Congress possible.
The Marshall Plan, it should be noted, benefited the American economy as well. The money would be used to buy goods from the United States, and they had to be shipped across the Atlantic on American merchant vessels. But it worked. By 1953 the United States had pumped in $13 billion, and Europe was standing on its feet again. Moreover, the Plan included West Germany, which was thus reintegrated into the European community. ( The aid was all economic; it did not include military aid until after the Korean War. )
So the governments are forced to use their foreign money and credits to procure these necessities abroad. This process exhausts funds which are
urgently needed for reconstruction. Thus a very serious situation is rapidly developing which bodes no good for the world. The modern system of the division of labor upon which the exchange of products is based is in danger of breaking down.
http://civnet.org/teaching/basic/part9/57.htm - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:51
Mike Stewart U>(To RLM) ID#270253: - Regarding the McClellan Summation work for Toronto Mining Issues:
I only have data for three years, as daily calculations are required from the Globe and Mail Business Section. The oscillator was designed to provide results that can be directly compared to the NYSE McClellan Oscillator that you see on CNBC. I have adjusted my oscillator for issues traded as they have increased greatly over the last 15 years.
Recent Lows in the Toronto Mining Summation Index
May 1 97 -1323 No rebound of 3600+ points to a Min level of +1900
July 16 97 -1405 As above
Current -1411 Once it bottoms, I will look for the summation index to rise 3600 points to at least +1900 as a confirmation of a new bull.
For comparison only: Summation Index below -1000
New York Stock Exchange level 1980-1997
Mar 28, 1980 -1749 Confirmed new bull on May 19/80 at +1925
Sep 28, 1981 -1116 Confirmed new bull on Sep 10,1982 at +2487
Oct 29,1987 -1288 Confirmed new bull on Feb 12,88 at +2294
Oct 17, 1990 -947 Confirmed new bull Feb 11,91 at +2776
I calculate these using Lotus 123 for OS/2, which created files that can't be easily used with Windows Lotus versions, otherwise I would provide the data. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:50
A.Goose U>(@pondCentral) ID#200174: - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:09
SDRer__A ( The Blame Game Begins ) ID#28593:
Looks like there will be enough to go around for both Europe and Japan.
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 7:44PM 460.12 -25.31 -5.21%
And the week is young. South Korea will keep the game in play. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:49
Mike Sheller U>(deeeep) ID#347447: - ELF: Thank you for the philosophy!
Let us live in the NOW....now. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:47
Mike Sheller U>(Means testing for Goldbugs) ID#347447: - A.J.: ANYONE can buy gold. There are gold coins in 1/2 ounce and 1/4 ounce weights that will harmonize with the most modest of budgets. It is not so important HOW MUCH money one has to put into gold, as that one has SOME money, within one's means, to buy SOME gold. With 1/4 oz K-Rands or whatever, even WELFARE RECIPIENTS can buy gold. At current prices, I urge ALL to have SOME gold, and that includes everyone.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:45
elf U>(Vronsky...Thanks for correction) ID#33180: - Yesterday is history.
Tomorrow is a mystery.
Today is a gift.
That's why we call it The Present.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:44
steady U>(Korea today/Japan tom.) ID#285309: - S. Korea now down 6%, new 52 wk low. Japan is closed today. Keep the knives away from Hoshimoto.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:40
a.j. U>(@tolerant1-yours of 15:42) ID#256201: - Your last. sentence was to say the least, interestin'. I live in Clinton land.
I am very familiar with the the circumstances surrounding the death of one Gordon Kahl. The Imboden Arkansas butchery was on a par with Waco and Ruby Ridge.
Most Americans care not a whit-as you so aptly stated.
I do take issue with your statement re: the Constitutional protection afforded us. It did not extend to the players in those deadly games I mention above.
Reason enough for one to have a little gold in the sock, if it can be afforded. We in Arkansas have been laboring under a CLINTONESQUE gubmnt for a loooonnng time now.
I do not know anyone with the means to buy gold!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:36
Mike Sheller U>(Hi Ho Silver!) ID#347447: - 223: Yes indeed. Chad C. Meek, the inveterate astrologer CEO of a public gold mining company himself has told me many times that SILVER will be the big winner in the coming currency debacle. Gold will be TOO EXPENSIVE at thousands of dollars an ounce to do business at the local supermarket, but little bits o' SILVER at $50, 100, or even $300 per ounce will do just fine. What is a DIME after all, but a tenth part of a dollar ( Thaler - 1 Ounce Silver ) .
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:35
vronsky U>(JAPANESE MARKET CLOSED MONDAY) ID#426220: - elf ( Japan ) Japanese market UP 2.5% http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u as big brokerage goes under. Relief rally?
You are quoting Friday's results. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:35
Auric U>(Try again) ID#255151: -
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/papers/papers1_02.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:33
Auric U>(Flash) ID#255151: -
Latest news from Japan. Government to announce use of public funds, AND Bank of Japan may ask New York Fed for money to help bail out Japanese banks. http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/papers/papers1_02.htm - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:32
elf U>(Japan) ID#33180: - Japanese market UP 2.5% http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u as big brokerage goes under. Relief rally?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:25
a.j. U>(@kahunna grande re;out of disfavor) ID#256201: - Was that a deliberate oxymoron on your part? It would first have to be in disfavor to be able to fall OUT of disfavor. ( :+^}[
Please do not take offense as this is meant as humor. See the tongue in cheek symbol? - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:24
SDRer__A U>(Too much isn't near enough...) ID#28593: - ...The exact amount of the loan ( IMF ) is unclear, but well short of the widely quoted $US80 billion predicted.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971124/world/world1.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:13
Auric U>(Kitco) ID#255151: -
Back for the evening and catching up on required reading here. The estimates for the bailout of Korea and Japan keep getting ratcheted up. JIN was right. I would like to hear more of your thoughts. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:09
SDRer__A U>(The Blame Game Begins) ID#28593: - Tokyo: Ministry of Finance washes hands of
blame
By Gillian Tett in Tokyo
Tokyo yesterday hit back at suggestions that Japanese banks were a key
factor fuelling the financial crisis in South Korea.
An official in the Ministry of Finance argued that European banks had a higher proportion of lending in South Korea than Japanese groups - and so it would be their stance that was critical.
The comments came after Seoul argued that a decision by Japanese banks to
cut credit lines was aggravating the country's problems.
After the Thai crisis most banks rolled over their loans to the country.
However, their experience of recent months has led some to take a more
aggressive stand. One banking official said: Some weaker banks in Japan
have many problems now, and so it is not surprising that they are taking
action.
According to the Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ) , Japanese lending to South Korea was $24.3bn ( £14.3bn ) in the second half of 1996. The Ministry of Finance said Japanese banks currently represented only about 35 per cent of South Korea's outstanding foreign commercial borrowings,compared with nearly 50 per cent held by European banks.
However, western bankers say the precise aggregation is uncertain because
some of the lending may have been made by Japanese banking subsidiaries
based in Europe.
George Graham, Banking Editor adds The BIS figures show no single
country coming close to Japan, although Germany ( $10bn ) , France ( $8.9bn )
and the UK ( $5.6bn ) would together match Japan's exposure to South
Korea.
Marc Pinto, credit analyst at Merrill Lynch in London, said that the European banks which have lent most to South Korea would be the German and French banks.
The BIS data show US banks' exposure at $9.3bn at the end of 1996.
However, Raphael Soifer, a banking analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman in
New York, using data from US regulators, estimates the total exposure of US banks at $20.2bn at June 30
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:07
vronsky U>(LATEST ON GOLD - by James DINES (November 27, 1997)) ID#426220: - THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET
With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated nonperforming loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representin any other Asian country.
WILL the smart Chinese again seek sheltert in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 19:05
RLM U>(Mike Stewart) ID#403335: - Can you give us any other dates when your indicator has fallen to -1300?
Would really appreciate your posting a chart of it if possible.
Thanks
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:48
vronsky U>(CENTRAL BANK GOLD OPERATIONS AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS - CONCLUSIONS) ID#426220: - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY - by THE RED BARON
Something is amiss - something is causing this anomaly rapped in an enigma. Some force - external to the market - is controlling the price of the noble metal. Something is forcing it to be range bound! This begs the following questions: 1 ) By whom? and 2 ) Why?
There is only one entity, which has both means and motive for the job: Central Banks. And Who is the MOTHER OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS: Federal Reserve Bank of New York! Hard to believe, BUT TRUE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:44
goose2 U>(Crash of Ninty Eight) ID#433234: - All.. With all the heavy Doom & Gloom on todays
post, I may as well add mine..
These eight U.S. stocks to make up the Crash of NintyEight.
Crane Co.. CR
Ashland Oil..ASH
Realty Income...O
Financial Inds...FNIN
Tri Continental..TY
Energy North...EI
General Host Corp.. GH
and
AT&T...T
CR-ASH-O-FNIN-TY-EI-GH-T - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:43
vronsky U>(MoReGoLd) ID#426220: - EXCELLENT POSTING!!!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:26
MoReGoLd U>(@FOOLS: possibly one trillion yen ($7.9 billion) accumulated from illegal deals since the 1980s) ID#348286: - Focus-Japan's Yamaichi announces business shutdown
By Tsukasa Maekawa
TOKYO, Nov 24 ( Reuters ) - Japan's oldest brokerage Yamaichi Securities announced on Monday it was going out of business in the country's biggest financial failure since World War two.
A company spokesman told Reuters the decision was taken at a board meeting, which lasted less than one hour.
The board directors judged at the meeting there was no other way out of a crisis involving a credit crunch, shrinking business and a corporate racketeering scandal.
The decision set in motion hurried action by the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan to ensure an orderly shutdown of Japan's fourth largest brokerage so that it did not cause major turmoil in world markets.
Japanese markets were shut on Monday for a national holiday, but international stock markets and the yen were expected to be hit by the shutdown news amid fears of a domino effect across Japan, Asia and possibly beyond.
With international markets braced for fallout from Asia's latest economic crisis, Yamaichi's Tokyo headquarters was besieged by journalists on hand for the final chapter of the latest saga in Japan's economic woes.
The fear that Japan might be the next Asian domino to fall has kept international monetary officials, already dealing with a crisis in South Korea, the world's 11th largest ecoomy, and other Asian nations, on edge.
``The initial reaction is likely to be selling pressure on the yen and equity markets and a firmer opening for U.S. Treasuries, said Kirit Shah, chief market strategist at Sanwa International in London, ahead of the decision.
Bank of Japan sources told Reuters a special board meeting would be held on Monday morning on whether to extend special unsecured loans to Yamaichi to protect depositors..
The Finance Ministry and central bank have contacted overseas authorities to alleviate global concerns especially in U.S. and European markets.
The Bank of England has said it was watching events closely.
Fuji Bank Ltd, a major lender to Yamaichi, had said it does not see any financial problems from a shutdown of the firm following rumours that a Yamaichi fall could also hit the bank.
The Yamaichi crisis follows the collapse in the past month of second-tier brokerage Sanyo Securities Co Ltd and 10th-ranking commercial bank Hokkaido Takushoku Bank.
Yamaichi's collapse came in the centenary year of a Japanese household name that has a staff of 7,500 at home and in 33 branches abroad.
Takeo Nishioka, secretary general of the main opposition New Frontier Party, said on the weekend Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's ruling Liberal Democratic Party had not acted decisively enough to ensure financial stability in Japan.
``The Yamaichi Securities situation has undermined the trust of Japanese investors and international financial markets, Nishioka said on national television.
The criticism added up to a unanimous view that Japan's financial system was in urgent need of reform, deregulation and closer supervision -- and there was more bad news to come.
At its core, the liquidity crunch faced by Yamaichi, had been driven by concern that creditors could not pin down just how large the brokerage's potential losses could become.
``It's a story of lack of sufficient disclosure and supervision, said James Fiorillo, senior banking analyst at ING Barings in Tokyo.
A Finance Ministry official said on Saturday there were suspicions of vast off-balance sheet liabilities exceeding 200 billion yen ( $1.58 billion ) from illegal trading practices.
If that had been only the extent of the problem, one industry source said that a ``white knight might have been found to pick up at least some of the pieces.
But worries the numbers may be much larger, with possibly one trillion yen ( $7.9 billion ) accumulated from illegal deals since the 1980s, kept suitors away.
It is not the first time Yamaichi has been to the wall. It teetered on the verge of bankruptcy in 1965 when -- in the midst of a major stock market slump -- a newspaper report of financial woes caused panicked investors to demand money back.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:12
Mike Stewart U>(One of my homemade indicators) ID#270253: - I have a McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index for the Toronto Mining issues. A level of -1300 or below indicates a bear market bottom, subject to confirmation of a new bull phase when the Summation index rises 3600 points. In July , it bottomed below -1300 but failed to rise ( obviously ) to confirm a new bull phase. We are again below -1300, so a bear market bottom is possible now. The subsequent rally over the next few months will tell us whether we have entered a new bull phase or not.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:11
vronsky U>(YAMAICHI TO COMMIT HARI-KARI) ID#426220: - YAMAICHI SECURITIES - 4th largest securities firm in Japan throws in the towel - BUSTED!! - KAPUTT!!!- BANKRUPT!!!!
Yamaichi has Yen24 TRILLION in Customers assets -- THAT’S US$190 BILLION!!!! Yamaichi’s liabilities TOP US$200 BILLION!!!! Whose going to be play the “PATSY” and foot the bill to make the customers whole again?!
A Nippon financial giant has fallen - it has requested from the Ministry of Finance to be allowed cease operations. Therefore, it must dump all positions.
If forced to shut-down, Yamaichi Securities must liquidate all positions. HOW MUCH US T-Bonds does it have in portfolio? See what the ultimate CONSEQUENCES will be for Japan, Land of the “Rising” Sun:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:09
JMARK U>(test) ID#197304: -
test on two - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:05
vronsky U>(“The Rothschilds, LBMA, and Gold” by MARKUS ANGELICUS) ID#426220: - This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD’s financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 18:04
Mike Stewart U>(Yamaichi is toast) ID#270253: - Yahoo Finance reports that the board of Yamaichi has decided to shut down operatons Press conference tomorrow.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:54
223 U>(Mike, re your 15:27 post: Gold in a barter economy?) ID#263259: - So it happens that one of my ancestors was a major cattle farmer and provisioner for the Continental Army. And the records which are avilable showed that he was paid in script but wised up and asked for silver, including cups, spoons and spanish coins. I guess he wrote off the worthless paper money and went on; he was a rich guy and went on to make a bundle after the war. IMHO in a major crisis gold would be used only for big ticket items like farmland, tractors and bulldozers. We'd do like every other civilization since Ur of the Chaldees and use brass, bronze, copper for the daily bread and silver for most everything else.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:49
Crystal Ball U>(@Kahunna Grande) ID#287367: - Re: yours of 15:43, you might not be able to carry thousands of ounces of gold on a plane to ( you pick the place ) , but you could certainly carry one PCGS-certified MS65 Pan-Pacific $50 slug ( $99,500.00 ) , or a Proof 64 1894-S dime ( Eliasberg sale, May 1996, $451,000.00 )
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:48
kiwi U>(Markus Angelicus) ID#194311: - What does the symbol represent at the end of your piece in gold eagle...it is Asian isn't it?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:36
Nick@C U>(Dave in Co) ID#393224: - To make it clickable preface it with http://
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:35
Crystal Ball U>(@Tolerant1) ID#287367: - Oh, man! You are so funny! This one belongs in the hall of fame!
Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:42
tolerant1 ( Shek ) ID#31868:
I wonder what the going price of over throwing a government is these
days. I'll bet they want to be payed in gold, not figment standard
paper.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:18
SDRer__A U>(Tolerant1@15:36) ID#28593: -
I, for one, am VERY glad you ‘had to do it’...
from an informative crop of posts, this one had the highest yield of all!
Thanks for all the hard work.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:03
kiwi U>(Now I'm really confused...too much openess?) ID#194311: - World Bank chief warns against unbridled deregulation
BONN, Nov 23 ( AFP ) - World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn
warned in the latest issue of Der Spiegel magazine against
uncontrolled deregulation of financial markets, particularly in
developing countries.
In an interview with the magazine which goes on sale on Monday,
Wolfensohn said, alluding to the financial crisis in Asia that it
was quite unacceptable for banks to manipulate huge sums of money
with no cover and to provide loans for dubious purposes.
He said Asian governments and Thailand particularly had made
indisputable mistakes in their economic policy due to inadequate
controls over financial markets and immature banking systems.
It is possible to deregulate only in association with strict
market supervision, he told the magazine.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:01
kiwi U>(Still the bullshisht persist) ID#194311: - Clinton bullish on Asia
VANCOUVER, Nov 23 ( AFP ) - US President Bill Clinton on Sunday
said he was confident about economic prospects of Asia in general
and South Korea in particular.
I think this is a time for confidence in the future of Asia,
he told a news conference here ahead of a summit Monday of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
The South Koreans have a very powerful economy, with a great
amount of potential ....
Certainly I don't see how anyone could be less than hopeful
about the long-term prospects of the South Korean economy given
their remarkable achievements over the last few decades.
South Korea's current economic instability was expected to loom
large over the APEC summit here.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 17:00
kiwi U>(Bad time for a crunch...when is it ever a good time?) ID#194311: - Seoul braces for IMF restructuring
SEOUL, Nov 23 ( AFP ) - South Korea braced this weekend for the
harsh financial restructuring it must accept as the downside of its
multi-billion dollar bailout by the International Monetary Fund
( IMF ) .
A three-man IMF advance guard, headed by Tomas Balino, arrived
late Sunday to start getting down to work on the restructuring
blueprint and said they would be followed by 24 others.
Balino said the bailout for South Korea could be bigger than the
23 billion dollars arranged for Indonesia 18 days ago, saying: This
is a much larger economy.
But he declined to mention the amount, which experts have put
anywhere between 50 billion and 100 billion dollars -- equalling, if
not surpassing, the 1995 Mexico peso crisis bailout of 50 billion
dollars.
Politically, analysts say, the crunch could not have come at a
worse time. Presidential elections are due on Decmeber 18 but the
new government is not due to take over until mid-February.
Thomas Trebat, head of Citibank emerging market research, told a
seminar in Milan Friday that he saw the coming three months as
crucial to determining whether the financial and credit crisis in
South Korea runs out of control or not.
The worst-case scenario, which I believe is very unlikely,
would be a drastic deterioration of the situation in South Korea,
which if it runs out of control, would put downward pressure on the
Japanese yen that would in turn put pressure on China and Hong
Kong, Trebat said.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:56
kiwi U>(Now for some news) ID#194311: - BOJ rush to prevent 'Japan selling' after Yamaichi collapse
TOKYO, Nov 23 ( AFP ) - The Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) is making a
desperate bid to stop Asia's economic turmoil spreading to the
country as the Big Four broker Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd. faced
collapse, reports here said Sunday.
The central bank is poised to extend special unsecured loans of
several hundreds of billions of yen to help Yamaichi cope with fund
withdrawals expected after the three-day weekend through Monday, the
major economic daily said.
The Asahi Shimbun said Yamaichi would apply for a voluntary
business closure as early as Sunday, so Japan's biggest corporate
self-destruction since World War II would not crash other Asian
markets, which open on Monday.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:52
Speed U>(http://www.smartmoney.com/smt/markets/news/index.cfm?story=199711211) ID#286199: - From SmartMoney
ALL EYES will be looking east come Monday, says Bill Chenoweth, portfolio manager of the Turner Small Cap fund ( TSCEX ) . That's because Yamaichi Securities Co., one of Japan's Big Four brokerage firms, was reported to be on the brink of closing its doors due to financial difficulties Friday. The report sent shivers through U.S. markets, where traders are already nervous about turmoil in Asia. Chenoweth thinks that the Tokyo Nikkei and other Asian markets will sell off as a result in Monday trading ( which starts Sunday night U.S. time ) , and that U.S. markets will follow suit. On Monday morning, the whole market will be focused on it, he says, adding that tech stocks will be those most affected. They're the most leveraged to the Far East and Asian economies, he explains. And they have the highest multiples and most volatility.
As a result, the stock to watch on Monday will be Dell ( DELL ) , the only significant tech stock to announce earnings on Monday, according to Chenoweth, who thinks the company will report earnings above Wall Street's consensus estimates of 0.65 per share. It will help point toward demand for PCs, which obviously is of major concern to tech investors, as well as what to expect from the Christmas holiday selling season.
The only other sector that Chenoweth will be watching with close interest is the energy and oil services sector. His fund holds Global Industries ( GLBL ) , Pride International ( PDE ) and Ocean Energy ( OEI ) . These companies have pulled back from their highs, but Chenoweth expects the group to continue Thursday's recovery early next week.
-- By Rob Turner
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:29
Selby U>() ID#28571: - A. Goose: Don't forget that all car manufacturers have now 100's of millions in debt and won't be building new cars for several years if there is a crash of the US dollar and we go to gold. When someone starts to build new cars they will look very much like the last ones built before the crash because their will be no money for redesign for many years. Also, of course, since the oil companies routinely finance their continued existence as well as all other manufacturers getting something to put into the tank might take a while.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:23
Speed U>(@Selby) ID#286199: - Economic downturns happen regardless of the type of currency in general use. The business cycle of boom and bust is described in history all the way back to Israel in the Bible. They dealt with the imbalances created by free market trade by declaring a year of Jubilee every 50 years, at which time they feasted and partied all year, forgave all debts, freed all slaves, etc. This reset all of the counters and cleared the decks for another 50 years of wheeling and dealing. What's changed is that now we think that we can overrule the business cycle because we are so much smarter. ; ) I like the idea of a year of Jubilee, especially the forgiveness of all debts and the year long party.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:17
KahunnaGrande U>(tolerant1) ID#27454: - click, cheers
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:11
Selby U>() ID#28571: - I understand it is illegal to destroy a dollar bill in this country.
What accounts for the periods of economic downturn before paper money was introduced? - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:09
A.Goose U>(gold $2000 per ounce ...) ID#200200: - Folks I believe that once this price is approached, I will be able to deal directly in bullion. I will offer 10 maples for a fine car ( keep the change ... because I won't want to handle the u.s. dollar.
I will buy supplies with silver or smaller portions of bullion. If and when I use the dollar it will be for fast turnover purchases.
This situation is why the U.S. government is working so hard to keep gold down.
I think this is what ANOTHER is refering to when he says all these will change and go back to earlier times. If you have bullion, you will want to keep making trades that enhance your bullion holdings while meeting your immediate needs.
I'm off to be with the family for a few hours, this coming week will be ANOTHER exciting one. ( IMHO ) - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:07
Schippi U>(Fidelity Select Gold Charts) ID#93199: - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 120 day, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors
Hourly Gold chart shows possible local Bottom.
Retailing is the short term sector leader. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:06
tolerant1 U>(Kahunna Grande) ID#31868: - I agree, and meant no ill feelings. I would gladly buy a beer or the liquid of your choice.
Give me a week and the reading of this forum and I for one am certain that I could change my mind on some of my beliefs.
I'm stickin with my Tequila though. Cheers.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 16:02
KahunnaGrande U>(tolerant 1) ID#27454: - I for one like the fact we disagree. I hold your postings in high reguard. One thing I like about these forums is the exchange of ideas. You may not change mine and I may not change yours but the fact we are discussing it opens the exchange.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:56
tolerant1 U>(Kahunna Grande) ID#31868: - We just disagree on a bunch of stuff, that's all.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:51
KahunnaGrande U>(Smuggling gold out?) ID#27454: - Most business people are not in the business of smuggling. And besides the drug dealers are not smuggling gold out of this country. They have bought into the cashless society. The stuff they do is on computers. And when someone is caught they dont have a trunkfull of gold. No, its cash. Green backs, Dollars
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:47
tolerant1 U>(Kahunna Grande) ID#31868: - You could easily leave with gold. What,do you think that criminals, the drug smugglers are the only ones with brains.
If they can get drugs in under the noses of all those oh so smart government goons, do you think I could not just waltz right out of the US with a mint of metal.
Think again.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:43
KahunnaGrande U>(Bushels of German Marks) ID#27454: - At least the germans could get their money! Go to your local bank and tell them you want 10,000 dollars cash out of your account. You will sign several pieces of paper. Try to leave the United states with 10,000 cash. If you dont declare it, it can be confiscated! The governments of the world are wanting to do away with cash. They are wanting to know every aspect of your life. And while you may be able to trade in your local area with gold, if you are going to trade with a business in a foreign country, that gold has to be convertable to somthing. You cant take one thousand ounces of gold on a airplane.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:42
tolerant1 U>(The LAW) ID#31868: - If you burn a dollar note it is not illegal. If you refuse to accept a dollar note it is legal.
The fact is most Americans don't have a clue about the country they live in or the Constitution that guards them from the Clintons, Rubins and the rest of their ilk.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:39
refer U>(Homestake mining 1929) ID#41229: - Vronsky:
You tell of the success of Homestake mining in the 30's. I'm wondering if you have the information of how it performed right before and during the initial spike of the crash! I'm trying to see if it best to hold back until the panic starts. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:35
Spud Master U>(Gold coinage has worked well for +2,000 years...) ID#273112: - KahunnaGrande - why the hand-wringing panic over paper money not being available? TO HELL WITH IT ( where it comes from anyway - chuckle ) .
Humanity got along for +2,000 years with fungible gold money called coins. In various sizes and denominations. It worked very well. It still works well. Try 1/10 ounce Maple Leafs. 1/4 oz. 1/2 oz. 1 ounce.
Please get over your hang-up with paper play money. It isn't god. It isn't made by gods. It is frequently worthless. As in always over time.
Face it: politicians & central bankers CAN'T STAND the thought of gold/silver based money. It TOTALY screws their ability to print wads of paper money which they then give out to control people, distort reality and loot your wealth. They ENJOY the control paper money gives them OVER YOU.
Now come the whiney complaints: ohhh, gold & silver money aren't convenient! Ohhh, I don't like to have a lot of money on me! Ohhh, it's dirty, dirty stuff...
Right. Get ready to continue to be screwed by politicos & CentBanko's FOREVER. Damn your children to be Federal Reserve slaves for life! ENSURE that Bill Clinton, R. Rubin & Friends may live like Kings & Queens ( pun intended ) forever, while you wonder why you can't afford food, why cars are so expensive, why you can't seem to save any money, why your standard of living is slowly declining despite the death of inflation!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:34
tolerant1 U>(HAD to post this, had to.) ID#31868: - TAXES AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE
How would you like to own a business where no one in government knew who you are . . . where the IRS never questioned you and only the lowest of lower minor bureaucrats has his hand in your pocket . . . for real estate taxes only . . . and no one in government dared to approach or reproach you ? . . . You are indeed the king of the mountain and the ignorant American citizens are paying you over 17 1/2 million dollars PER HOUR OF EVERY DAY! NO taxes . . no control . . . how sweet. This is not science fiction nor a story about fairies or leprechauns . . . there is such an outfit in our country that pays no taxes except real estate taxes.
If they pay no federal income, state income or other taxes, guess who has to make up the difference? That's right . . . you and I are the jerks who pay the 17 mil per hour and make up their share of taxes. Who is this evader of taxes? The Federal Reserve System!
But you say they're part of the Federal Government-- at least under some government control. WRONG! This is what they want you to believe but it's a fairy tale! The Fed is NOT an agency of the federal government and neither does any division of government control their actions or policies. It has the same relationship to the federal government as the Federal Express or your local Federal Meat Market. NONE. It is a privately owned banking system.
The Federal Reserve is a central bank, similar to central banks around the world. These include the Bank of England, the Bank of France, the Bundesbank of Germany and Banco de Mexico. No government in the world controls a central bank; the opposite is true. These banks tell people and governments where to go . . what to do and they answer to no one!
Banks conjure images of vaults overflowing with stacks of money. What is money? . . .
1.Standard pieces of gold, silver, copper, nickel, etc., stamped by government authority and used as a medium of exchange and measure of value; coin or coins; also called hard money. 2.any paper note issued by a government or an authorized bank and used in the same way; bank notes; bills; also called paper money. ( Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary ) .
Random House dictionary defines a note as any of various types of instruments covering debts, as a promissory note. Now take a fast look at the dollar bill in your pocket. It tells you it's a 'Federal Reserve Note'! It's an instrument covering debt, created out of thin air, only a credit entry on bank books. This secret outfit controls our money and tells us what it's worth.
Is that legal? Let's find out. What does our Constitution have to say about money? First, Congress has the authority to borrow money on the credit of the United States. This corrects a defect in the original Articles of Confederation. Today, we see the result of unrestrained use of this power when Congress proposes raising the debt ceiling.
Next we find Congress shall have the Power . . . To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin . .
Not one word in our Constitution allows our money to be a piece of paper with numbers printed on it. To coin money does not mean to print money.
The colonists had over one hundred years experience with paper money. They were known as Bills of Credit back then. Bad money experiences left a nasty taste in the mouths of most at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia. Their plan was to stop the use of paper money. They added a monetary constraint to the document which prohibits any state from 'making any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in the Payment of Debts'. This requirement slapped the responsibility right on the states to keep our money honest. We have a constitutional right to real money.
Debasement of our money is so complete that we now have ersatz pennies and coated copper coins replace our silver coins. This is a travesty!
Paper money is a good deal for government. A worthless piece of paper with a number printed on it tells us it's worth ten dollars, one hundred dollars . . . or one thousand dollars.
In the upper left corner of that paper dollar in your pocket is the statement, This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private. That's a cockeyed lie! Gold and silver coin are the ONLY legal tender allowed by the Constitution.
The Coinage Act of 1792 defined our money and specifies our coins are to be of gold and silver. This is still a valid act of the Congress . . . Congress has never repealed it.
Congress is ordered to regulate the value of foreign coin. Yet today we have foreign exchange markets where the value of our dollar floats in relationship to foreign currency. This is so unconstitutional as to border on the edge of criminal.
How did we get into this situation concerning our money? Let's unravel a web of intrigue and deceit. Central banks were common in Europe before World War I and they decided to set up the same system in the United States. Earlier in our history, we had two central banks. Fortunately, at those times, we had Presidents who valued and respected their oath to preserve the Constitution. Our government did not renew these bank charters and they died a quiet death. However, there is no charter requiring renewal under the Federal Reserve Act. They have a perpetual license to steal.
The late eighteen and early nineteen hundreds saw a major campaign by international bankers to get a new central bank established in this country. The first character we find in this story is Paul Moritz Warburg from Hamburg, Germany. He represented a large European banking family, the Rothschilds. These are the people who once said, Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes the laws!
The Rothschilds bankrolled Warburg in 1902. His mission? To convince major bankers and industrialists that a private central bank was the answer to America's economic ills. In addition to whatever money Warburg needed to buy into New York money houses, they paid him half a million a year . . . a tidy sum even today. Rothschild knew what fabulous profits there would be after they set up the private bank. And they were right . . . 17 million bucks per hour ain't shabby.
Warburg spent eight years around the country preaching his false economics. There were many conspirators in this goal to control the United States' economy. One greedy and powerful character was US Senator Nelson Aldrich. ( Yes, Nelson Rockefeller's grandfather. ) Congress often denounced Aldrich for the disregard of his oath of office as he devoted his power and energies to the program of international finance.
Strange happenings began the night of November 22, 1910 when reporters received a tip that some very important people from New York city would be arriving at the train station in Hoboken, New Jersey. Along with Warburg and Aldrich, reporters identified the biggest names in banking and industry and included many government officials. These men controlled the oil, railroads, communications and heavy industry in this country.
Not one man would talk to reporters. They all disappeared into the last car on the train, a private car owned by Aldrich. Drawing all shades, they left reporters scratching their heads on the reason for these movers and shakers being there. There wasn't a hint on the destination of the train or reasons for the secrecy.
Thirty years later, some details of that trip emerged. Jekyll Island, off the coast of Georgia, was where these big shots travelled and came up with the bill creating the privately owned bank for United States. True to Rothschilds, they knew once they had control of our money, it wouldn't make any difference who makes the laws.
Deception was immediate. The conspirators knew that the representatives from Southern and Western states would never agree to any bill suggesting a central bank or control by Wall Street money. The first try to get the private bank bill through Congress was called the Aldrich Plan. People fought back and in 1911, they defeated the bill.
This kind of greed doesn't die. It was only a minor set back. Their final triumph occurred in 1913. Warburg insisted the bill go back into Congress as the Federal Reserve Act to hide that it was the same bill defeated earlier.
The lackeys pushed the bill through Congress on December 22, 1913 after most members had gone home for the Christmas holidays. President Woodrow Wilson signed it into law the very next day. America's independence disappeared.
The preamble to the Federal Reserve Act tells us the purposes of the Act are to provide for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford a means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.
'Elastic currency'? That's the same as rubber money. Rediscounting is a system where member banks borrow credit from the central bank. This allows fluctuations in the discount rate and enables the Fed to control the money supply of the nation. Rediscounting influences the total outstanding credit on commercial paper and government bonds. In this way, the central reserve bank can expand or contract the money supply at will. They can now manufacture boom times or depressions whenever it strikes their fancy.
And with all the bank and Savings and Loan closures, it's clear they were effective in their duty to exercise supervision of banking in the United States. Or . . . was that planned?
'And for other purposes' -- what does that mean? Is that the all encompassing clause which removes all restrictions? Warburg and his lackeys knew exactly what they were doing.
The Act gave authority ( ? ) for a private banking system to create 'money' out of thin air. We find proof of this from hearings before the House Committee on Banking and Currency, September 30, 1941. Representative Wright Patman of Texas asked Federal Reserve Governor Marriner Eccles: How did you get the money to buy those two billion dollars worth of Government securities in 1933?
Eccles replied: We created it.
Patman asks: Out of what?
Eccles: Out of the right to issue credit money.
Patman: And there is nothing behind it, is there, except our Government's credit?
Eccles: That is what our money system is. If there were no debts in our money system, there wouldn't be any money.
See now why your dollar bill is called a note?
This interview is from the Congressional Record and is also in an exceptional book by Eustace Mullins, called The Federal Reserve Conspiracy, ( Omni Publications, Hawthorne, CA., 1971 ) .
The money we use today has its basis in debt, not wealth. This funny money, contrived by a private banking cartel for their profit, now controls our economy. And, speaking of profit, our government does NOT know who owns The Federal Reserve system or whether they are even American citizens for that matter. How does that grab you?
Let's check interest payments again. They demand payment in full and on time every year. Breaking down the $17.6 million per hour means we shell out over $226,000 every time your heart beats. Over a quarter of a million of our bucks!
One requirement of the Federal Reserve Act orders the system to have an annual public audit. The Fed has NEVER had a public audit. When questioned about this, the Fed answers that they are continually audited . . . BY THEMSELVES! They do not address the word 'public'. It's like having the fox count the hens in the chicken house.
When someone questions their legality, the Fed responds with, Would you rather have the control of money in the hands of politicians and politics? Politicians are, at least in theory, responsible to the people. But what's more important, the Constitution orders Congress [politicians] to control the value of our money! Honest money is a guarantee. There is not one instance in history to show that politicians have ever destroyed the value of money . . . it's only been done by international bankers.
We read that Congress shall coin money and regulate its value. Whenever you see the words 'Congress shall', it's a COMMAND! There is NO option or permission in our Constitution to delegate congressional duties to another governmental body, and certainly not to a private cartel.
If this isn't clear thus far, let's take a quick look at the Tenth Amendment . .
THE POWERS NOT DELEGATED TO THE UNITED STATES BY THE CONSTITUTION, NOR PROHIBITED BY IT TO THE STATES, ARE RESERVED TO THE STATES RESPECTIVELY OR TO THE PEOPLE.
If we didn't precisely grant the power, they don't have it.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:34
Mike Sheller U>(Surf's Up) ID#347447: - KAHUNNA GRANDE: The whole point is that one should have some gold NOW in the anticipation of a possible currency crisis. When the crisis hits, you will likely be buying the gold, if you can, at sky-high or blackmarket rates. The value will be half gone. This is a game of anticipation. If, God Forbid, a fire should break out in your house, you wouldn't want to first go running to Home Depot to buy a fire extinguisher, would you? How things are worked out, or further bollixed up, by governments and national Treasuries after the crisis is something else again. I'm not prepared to even speculate on THAT. As for those who do not even think about these things, and will NEVER buy gold, or only after it peaks, that's life. We can't account for every Brother and Sister in this existence, can we? I think there are enough auric evangelicals in the world already, certainly at Kitco, and nobody seems to care. Even the WGC, supposedly the PR arm of the mining industry, is doing a lousy job. Treasonous I'd say.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:28
IDT U>(Martin Armstron of Princeton Economics) ID#228128: - I obtained the following from their home page. No copywrite was attached and I found it interesting reading.
Asia
Continent in Turmoil
By Martin A. Armstrong
There has been a lot of criticism about free markets and currency traders coming from the Asian
markets. Of course there was the outrageous call to ban all currency dealing except for trade. What is
seriously being misunderstood here is that the free market is always right. We cannot entertain the
notion of building walls to block the free flow of capital whenever it takes a view that is different from
that of government.
Asia is being attacked for reasons that are not entirely related to the Asian marketplace. Capital is
being undermined around the world primarily by the threat of European Monetary Union. It is EMU
that is disrupting the world capital markets in a silent way that has yet to be understood by
politicians and the press alike. EMU is one giant currency nightmare waiting to thrust the world
economy into sheer chaos and confusion. It is the very uncertainty of EMU that has been driving
capital into the US dollar and assets as a hedge against the forthcoming Euro, which has no certain
value.
One must look beyond the political nonsense of European politicians who clearly are more concerned
with a concept and their personal careers than in the long-term economic benefits to society. EMU is
indeed a political and economic catastrophe of untold proportions. It is an attempt to institute the
very monetary system that existed in the United States during the colonial era which exploded into
total chaos and the bankruptcy of the Continental Congress. Can you image 50 states each with the
legal authority to issue the same currency? That is the end result of EMU. When the money supply
of the United States became completely debased during the late 1790s, the solution to emerge was the
federalization of the American Colonies into a formal union of the United States. When that union
took place, each state was forced to relinquish its authority over monetary policy and the issuance of
currency.
As EMU is currently proposed, there is only a monetary union. There is no fiscal union and
certainly there is no political union. Consequently, there will be a European Central Bank to
administer the Euro but there will NOT be a federal government of Europe. In effect, each nation state
will retain its full legal authority over everything from taxes, debt, spending and regulation. Each
nation will issue its debt in a common currency being that of the Euro. However, there is only an
agreement to keep fiscal budget in line with each other. In reality, the Euro concept is nothing
different from the current ERM ( European Exchange Rate Mechanism ) . Instead of each currency
being locked against its European member partners, each currency will be locked to a central currency
called the Euro. The danger is the creation of the American Colonial system where each state affected
the money supply for the whole. Under EMU, each nation will issue its debt in Euros and there is no
central authority to prevent one state from drifting out of line with another. What is sheer madness
emerges from the fact that all governments will issue their debt in Euros creating the distinct danger
of disrupting the whole continent.
While there appears to be support for EMU among the people of Europe, there is NO support to
accept a federal Europe. While it is hoped that a single currency will create a single interest rate for
the entire region, what is being overlooked is the fact that such a system does not exist even within
the United States who has a federal system as well as a single currency. In reality, each state issues
its debt according to the credit rating it holds in the marketplace. There is no single interest rate in the
United States and never has been. If this is the case even under a federal government, how can the
political promises in Europe produce something that does not exist even under a more controlled
system?
Asia is seriously being impacted by the events in Europe – not the currency speculators. There are
two levels of capital – short-term hot money ( US$4 trillion+ ) and long-term capital ( US$30 trillion+ ) .
The hot money is known to swing back and forth seeking the next red-hot investment. It was this
capital that initially sparked the big boom in Asia. However, it is the big long-term capital that
underwrites our modern economic way of life. It is this capital that buys the national debts of nations
and sets back content to clip coupons. This is the capital that is now being seriously affected by
EMU.
During October, the first sign that long-term capital is starting to question the future came with the
German 30-year bond auction when it went under-subscribed. How can capital buy a 30-year bond
denominated in Deutsche marks when that currency will cease to exist within the next 5-years?
Politicians are happy to say.. Don’t worry! We will figure out how all these rules will work at some
point in the future. What is important is to get started on EMU now and worry about the problems
later!
Major long-term capital has just lost one-third of the world economy to uncertainty. The worst
possible thing government can do is to undermine the confidence it’s the long-term stability. There
will always be ups and downs in economic growth. Capital is accustomed to dealing with risk
assessment between asset classes. What capital is NOT accustomed to is the political manipulations
to what is the very basic element of wealth – currency.
EMU is silently working its way through the global economy. Corporations are being forced into
contracts expressed in dollars. We are finding clients who are also being forced to base contracts on
US law for fear of not knowing how European law might change under a united Europe. As the
transition period for EMU begins in 1998 and extends into 2002, long-term investment decisions are
being subjected to greater degrees of uncertainty than ever before in postwar history. This is the root
cause of Asia’s problems – not currency speculators.
The sheer magnitude of uncertainty in the world economy is growing with each passing day. As one
of the few global investment advisors, we have a front row seat as clients come to us with their
growing concerns seeking advice as to where to move their assets. As uncertainty grows, volatility
increases. What has emerged is a net global capital flight to the US dollar. Therein lies much of the
trouble for Asia who has been suffering from net capital outflows while trying to maintain a currency
fix relative to the US dollar when it is being bid up around the world.
Asia as a whole must come to terms with this global crisis. If Asia is to survive, it must first
understand the troubles that it faces. From what we can see on a global scale, capital will merely
continue to be very nervous particularly prior to the formation of EMU. As this event unfolds,
volatility will increase. During the transition period ( 1999-2002 ) , the reality of the new EMU will take
hold. Interest rates will NOT converge but becomes the focus of capital nervousness as they watch
every economic number throughout Europe for signs of divergence. We see no relaxation in
long-term volatility under after 2003. If Europe is to be a success, it must at least federalize to the
point that it becomes not merely a monetary union but also a fiscal union. Then and only then, will
the volatility in the global capital markets subside.
Asia will continue to suffer over the next two-year period. However, there is a light at the end of the
tunnel. As the capital markets force a devaluation throughout Asia ( including Hong Kong and
Japan ) , then stage can be set for the next economic growth period. The potential for Asia to rise back
to new heights in economic growth and share market values appears to return in 1999. As Europe
struggles with EMU, capital will continue to leave that continent. Once the worst is over for Asia,
opportunity will once again rise like the sun after as long dark night.
From the US perspective, we must be concerned about excessive capital inflows which could
artifically create an over-extended economy and investment sector. It is clear that if the Dow Jones
Industrials exceed their previous July high, then a significant rally into 1998 remains possible with the
Dow reached around 12000. However, failing to recover significantly at this time warns of a coming
consolidation into July 1998 where the worst on the downside might be 6200-6500. Thereafter, a rally
into 2003 still appears likely.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:27
tolerant1 U>(Hmmmm. Whose country is it anyway?) ID#31868: - http://www.connecti.com/~knobby/
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:27
Mike Sheller U>(TOLERANT 1, 223, KAHUNNA GRANDE) ID#347447: - TOLERANT !: That suit of clothes you bought for your $2500 gold ounce would look like a halfway decent get-up to wear on your $25 subway ride to work for an important business meeting.
223: There is NO limit in paper dollars, or any other paper currency, to the denomination of a gold ounce. How many Monopoly money stacks of 100 bills would you finally be satisfied with for a gold ounce before you had an equal value to trade back to the Milton Bradley Company? 1000? 10,000? A million? At some point, those paper bills equal some value of gold weight in trade. The market will decide. You're just along for the ride. In 1781 when the Revolutionary War destroyed the Continental Currency, an ounce of gold traded for $16,000 in paper bills. That was AMERICAN currency. $2500 will be nothing in the years to come.
KAHUNNA GRANDE: In the post WWI German inflation, people needed baskets of marks to get on the bus. More time was spent by workers lining up to get paid every few hours as the currency depreciated, than actually at the job. Once ample life insurance policy death benefit checks arrived at less value than the stamp that mailed them. Draw your own contusions.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:26
Carl U>(Clinton's mixed metaphor) ID#333131: - a few glitches in the road in Asia. Do roads have glitches? Do his plans have bumps?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:15
vronsky U>(IS IT CONCEIVABLE CENTRAL BANKS WILL SOMEDAY OUTLAW CASH? ) ID#426220: - With the staggering woes that have beset the Asian Tigers as
of late we may well need to expect a whole series of bailouts
for the Pacific economies akin to the 1980s bailout wave. And
the Fed sits poised to monetize new loans as needed. So there
is an endless stream of new debt that the Fed will be
monetizing into the foreseeable future on a grand scale.
All the while the central banks are shedding large portions of gold reserves in their on-going war on gold they are simultaneously weakening their own positions in terms of fungible, highly liquid assets.
A collapse in the stock markets and a run on bank deposits due to a global financial crisis could deal them a severe blow.
An excellent DETAILED review of Central Bank folly may be seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/voss112097.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:14
KahunnaGrande U>(RE:Mike Sheller) ID#27454: - In a currency crisis where the banks are not open how would one get the CASH to purchase gold. Is there a lot of people out there that have several thousand dollars CASH on their hands to buy gold. Probably not. Remember how we are becomming a CASHless economy? Gold could be 10,000 dollars an ounce but if all someone would give you is 200 dollars cash the value of gold is 200 dollars. While I do not suscribe to conspiracy theorys ( because that gives too much credit to dumb bureacrats ) at some point in the future the price of goid could skyrocket but there is not enough cash ( dollars, mark, yen ) to buy. Sure you could trade your gold for property, cars, etc. But if the person you are trading with cannot convert your gold to somthing else the value of gold is nada. This is one way to gather the gold in. Eventually a government ( one world ) will set the price of gold. It will be valued in a single currency. Either through attrition or by law all gold will be called in. All trade will be based on this currency. Gold will be convertable in this currency only. Does anyone else see where this is leading?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:10
Dave in CO U>(OK City victims' families sueing Federal Gov.) ID#215211: - tolerantl:
Thanks for your posts on government corruption and media coverups.
Please take a look at www.freerepublic.com/forum/a34369.htm ( sorry I don't know how to make it clickable. ) Here are a few excerpts:
Did you know that 475 members of the victim families of the Oklahoma City bombing have filed lawsuits this year against the federal government? ...
It [one of the lawsuits] charges that the government possessed detailed prior knowledge of the planned bombing. ...
The Carol Howe [undercover agent who warned ATF of bombing] story was scheduled to air on ABC-TV on Feb. 5. It was pulled at the last moment. The producer accused ABC's top brass of caving in to political pressure. He said his bosses argued that the story would BRING DOWN THE COUNTRY and lead to the abolition of the ATF, the result being MACHINE GUNS ON EVERY CORNER.
Why would so many of the family members fall for such a crazy conspiracy theory? And why isn't this covered by NBC, CBS, ABC, and CNN ( see last paragraph ) ? - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:08
Spud Master U>(KGrande...) ID#273112: - [o]ne is going against the reality of the world. Gold has fallen out of disfavor. Its use as a medium of exchange in intrenational trade is passed.
ONLY if you are sucker enough to believe what politicians & central bankers WANT you to believe. People are controlled ONLY by manipulation of their beliefs. However, when their stomachs start grumbling, the beliefs wake up, rudely. Plenty of SEA who no longer ascribe to your above quoted words, KGrande!
Don't worry. Reality ALWAYS re-assserts itself. We will all live to see this elaborate plan for world control via fake paper money unravel. I'm not so sure we'll all live to see it finally ended... - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:05
tolerant1 U>(NOW HOLD ON JUST A MINUTE BUBBA!) ID#31868: - Clinton, Chretien hopeful about Asia recovery
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 The Associated Press
VANCOUVER, British Columbia ( November 23, 1997 2:11 p.m. EST http://www.nando.net ) -- President Clinton described recent turmoil in Asian markets as a few little glitches in the road and said Sunday that world nations must come together to stabilize the financial crisis there.
Clinton said a financial rescue proposal put together in Manila will provide support from wealthy countries such as the United States and Japan to bolster the resources of the International Monetary Fund.
This is a time for confidence in the future of Asia and the confidence in the future of our relationship with them, Clinton said. We have a few little glitches in the road here, we're working through them.
On Korea specifically, the most recent nation to experience a financial tumble, Clinton said, I don't see how anyone could be less than hopeful about South Korea's economy given their achievements over the last few decades.
Clinton said that South Korea's request for a rescue package of $20 billion-plus from the International Monetary Fund would be the first situation handled under a crisis response program adopted by the APEC countries at a finance officials meeting in Manila last week. That package will be a key topic of discussion among the leaders during their sessions Monday and Tuesday.
Clinton praised Canadian Prime Minister Chretien for his role in pushing an international anti-land mine treaty but repeated U.S. concerns that the treaty unfairly bans anti-tank mines as well as anti-personnel mines. Chretien said he believed there was a way to address Clinton's concerns and added, We'll keep gentle pressure on the president to agree to the treaty.
On another issue where Canada and the United States disagree -- climate changes on the agenda at a global conference in Kyoto, Japan, next month -- Chretien said, We have agreed it is very important to have an agreement.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:04
vronsky U>(THE INGER LETTER FORECAST - November 27, 1997) ID#426220: - True to form the oft CNBC-TV financial celebrity, Gene Inger, makes for interesting reading of what happened last week in all the markets... and what we might expect in the coming round -
“Yamaichi's cessation of operations is the biggest failure in Japan since World War II. Japan's market is closed Monday, so we'll watch others for hints of any Tuesday impact. No doubt, based on the Nikkei futures Friday afternoon, Asian markets will again be turned into sushi, while those buying US stocks into strength might have to eat Crow instead of Turkey:”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:03
Spud Master U>(KahunnaGrande : You don't get it...) ID#273112: - That starving teller isn't going to be bothered by concerns like can I convert this gold into something the utility company will accept.... The teller will just take it. Period. Talk to someone who lived in a communist dictatorship concerning the State's paper vs. getting things done. There's the official, State-sanctioned way, and the real, no-BS, get it done way. Gold ***always*** carries the day.
Will someone kindly post the value of Thai, Malaysian, Korean, Indonesian currencies in gold BEFORE and AFTER this little SEA adventure? FWI, those of them who bought gold with their worthless paper currencies can now trade a bit back in for more of their countries worthless paper play-money. They, at least, did not have THEIR wealth confiscated!
Here, utility companies person! Play money! Happy?!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 15:02
Carl U>(Thanks Mike Sheller) ID#333131: - I hardly know how to take all of this in. Another's reference to men such as I leaves me reeling. Such as he politically? morally? wealth-wise?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:56
KahunnaGrande U>(Gold isn't dead, but it aint feelint too well right now) ID#27454: - While one can wax on about the religion of the ownership of oro one is going against the reality of the world. Gold has fallen out of disfavor. Its use as a medium of exchange in intrenational trade is passed. Until one government decides to set the price of gold at 200 or 2000 dollars and is willing to defend that price,gold will never be anything but a commodity. One can use this commidity as a store of wealth. But over the short term it is nothing but a commodity. That starving utility teller may want to take your gold. But how is the company she works for going to convert your gold to cash. And how is the electric company going to pay the employees of the company? Split your gold into little pieces. The price of gold has to be convertable and stable to be used as money. Until then it is only a barter agreement.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:42
tolerant1 U>(Shek) ID#31868: - I wonder what the going price of over throwing a government is these days. I'll bet they want to be payed in gold, not figment standard paper.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:37
SDRer__A U>(Using the P. Lynch Yardstick) ID#28593: -
In my home territory ( which is supposed to be one of the most economically vibrant in the US ) we have, in the last two months, lost
two of the area’s most prestigious bookstores
two moderately priced restaurants
the area’s largest, and arguable ‘nicest’ shopping mall ( which is
to be closed December 3, 1997 because they can not meet their debt obligations..only a measly 170 million; were the tag 1.7 billion they could be off to London!
Aurator@Clever!
I’m VERY impressed with the Jackson indicator, and shall add it to my list of Bizarre and Under-Followed Indicators. Thank you.
I’m trying to put together some GENERAL track on SDR flow, but the fog is thick and VERY concealing. And, at a certain point, one is forced to simply conjecture ( GUESS ) whether the ‘grant’, ‘loan’, ‘draw’ is actually in the announced currency or SDR. This has, in my observation, changed from their Old Ways in the Old Days. The existence of multitudinous Development Banks makes for difficulties, as does the fact that servers are not as accessible to riffraff ( read ME ) as they were a couple of years ago.
A. Goose@Good.stuff ( NOT as in Strasbourg! )
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:37
Shek U>(gold) ID#287279: - ANOTHER,
I have posted to tolerant1 that if price of gold skyrockets, than there will be serious troubles all over the world. To combat it governments will nationalize mining companies and possibly go after gold hoarders
( read prudent people ) . Do you see that? - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:33
tolerant1 U>(223) ID#31868: - I was kind of wondering what that suit of clothes would look like fro me to trade a $2500 piece of gold for it.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:27
tolerant1 U>(Spud ) ID#31868: - We should have gotten that student murdering chinese weasel when he was hear.
Billary was too busy wining and dining the creature on our taxed sweat.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:27
223 U>(Mike's 13:52 post, value of gold? Is there a max?) ID#263259: - What is the natural maximum gold price? I wonder if it might be equal to whatever is the going price for an acre of good agricultural bottom land, or at least in that order of magnitude. Without the urban sprawl factor that might come to $1500 to $2500 nowadays.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:27
vronsky U>(LATEST ON GOLD - by James DINES LETTER (November 27, 1997)) ID#427357: - THERE IS MUCH LEFT TO HAPPEN IN FOREIGN MARKETS YET
With an estimated $200 billion in accumulated nonperforming loans - five times the equity capital of all Chinese banks - China's banking system is essentially insolvent. At least 50% of China's state-owned companies are in the red, constituting a far larger chunk of the economy than failing companies representin any other Asian country.
WILL the smart Chinese again seek sheltert in the currency, which has served them well for over 3,000 years: GOLD?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines112497.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:19
Crystal Ball U>(@Spuds) ID#287367: - You tell 'em, kid!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:18
tolerant1 U>(?) ID#31868: - Is the US market open on Friday?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:10
Spud Master U>(What is the value of paper? Ask a Korean, an Indonesian, a Thai, a Malaysian...) ID#273112: - If the price of gold rises to $2000 an ounce, what will be the value of your paper currency if the person wanting to buy your gold will only offer you $2,000/oz? Paper can only be money if someone is willing to trade their big piece of stuff for your flimsy piece of paper. And once trading for your paper, can that be converted into somthing to pay the electric bill when the utilities will only take gold, silver, cars, furniture? I am starting to realize that what I thought of as insurance, paper money, I also need gold. While my electric and gas bill are denominated in dollars, at the moment, that may change in a moment.
There is a stable price on gold, just none on paper promises.
GOLD is MONEY.
GOLD is the wooden stake through the dishonest heart of the world's politicians & central bankers. Chuckle. We are barbarians for having the audacity to demand a fair, honest and unforgable money such as GOLD. Central Bankers & Politicians are heros for perverting, inflating and debasing paper fiduciary money into paper fiat money. Some upsidedown world, huh?
EB, are you printing your EBNotes yet? Why not. They have as much backing a Federal Reserve Note.
PAPER MONEY = SLAVERY.
ELECTRONIC MONEY = FASTER SLAVERY.
GOLD = FREEDOM.
The price of Freedom is eternal vigilance
Thomas Jefferson - dead white dissed male. Author of the
Declaration of Independance - nuisance document to the New World
Order thugs.
Have you hugged a Chinese Communist Thug-Lord President fresh from Tianammen Square murders lately?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:05
tolerant1 U>(Of course, there is another way.) ID#31868: - Lets say a certain group of politicians tell the bankers that they have not been dealing fairly. In fact, what the bankers have been doing is illegal. In addition, aside from accusations, you are going to jail. And we are null and voiding all debts.
For your crimes we are liquidating your assets. So there. Take that.
Why not in a grab for power?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:03
Selby U>(IMF) ID#287207: - Has there been any news of the US intending to pay its overdue payments to the IMF or the UN?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 14:00
aurator U>(work interferes with kitco) ID#257148: - SDRer - have you got no of SDRs issued by IMF @ year or can you point the way to official paper nos please?
Mike Sheller - I think the IMF is one sick puppy, waiting for someone on a grassy knoll to put it out of it's misery The world needs a bank of last resort and what happens when the bank of last resort is up sh!t creek without a paddle? What I wonder is in the stars for the IMF?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:54
Mike Sheller U>(my good deed for the day) ID#347447: - CARL: Here's ANOTHER's reply to you if you still can't access it. -
a reply,
Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:18
Carl,
The world has changed and the gold market has changed with it. We are going back in time much
further than many will accept. A time when men, such as I, will take what is yours! If you hold your
value in a public way, it will be taxed or taken for the good of all. Such are the ways of extream times!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:52
Mike Sheller U>(well, uhh, hmm...) ID#347447: - KAHUNNA GRANDE: If gold rises to $2000 ( that's DOLLARS ) an ounce, you will be able to trade an ounce of your gold to anyone who wants it for $2000. If it is $2000 per ounce, it means THAT is its current value in dollars because the people who WANT gold are willing to buy it at that price, and the people who own it are willing to sell it at that price. Sometimes things are very simple. No?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:47
Spud Master U>(@KahunnaGrande : No more disingenuous questions please) ID#273112: - He who has the gold makes the rules. That starving/frightened electric utility teller will be plently glad to take your gold and settle your account. That starving/fightened BMW dealer will be happy to trade the car for gold. Really, do you think you'll have ANY problem using the VALID money of any time to get what you need? Currently it's valueless CONfidence-based unconstitutional Federal Reserve pieces of paper. It will be gold in the future. However, over time, people have used food, sex, prestige, etc, fungible as they may or may not be, as the medium of exchange.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:44
Crystal Ball U>(@Kahunna Grande) ID#287367: - Good point. Anybody know where one can purchase Mexican 2-peso gold pieces and for how much are they going?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:38
KahunnaGrande U>(What is Gold worth) ID#27454: - If the price of gold rises to $2000 an ounce, what will be the value of your gold if the person wanting to buy it will only offer you $200 cash? Gold can only be money if someone is willing to trade their big piece of stuff for your little piece of gold. And once trading for your gold can that gold be converted into somthing to pay the electric bill. I am starting to realize that while I need my insurance gold I also need cash. While my dollars may be considered fiat my electric and gas bill are denominated in dollars. If there is no stable price on gold, how can it be converted into money?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:37
Crystal Ball U>(@Fiscal Storms) ID#287367: - Battered by Fiscal Storms, Asia Nations Limp into Talks
http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/world/apec-meeting-assess.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:28
Crystal Ball U>(@Aurator) ID#287367: - Why is a visit with Whacko Jacko like the blue light special at KMart?
Boys pants are half off.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:27
SDRer__A U>(Tolerant@10:36, Tolerant@12:49, Goose@waiting) ID#288157: -
................EMU ..........Floating
Germany ........0.2............. 0.8
France ...........0.2.............. 0.9
Italy .................0.5............. 1.6
UK .................. 0.6.............. 0.2
European Monetary Union, A dream or Reality
Author:Matthew J. Montgomery
One small reason for Brits lack of enthusiasm
Here, we can see that all Countries apart from the UK would benefit
from monetary Union. Rules vs. discretion in monetary policy model. This
model postulates that the central Bank is subject to pressures to generate unanticipated inflation, in order to achieve objectives on some real variables in the economy
Costs to EMU
...............EMU ..........Floating
Germany ........0.2............. 0.8
France . .......0.2............. 0.9
Italy...........0.5............. 1.6
UK............. 0.6............. 0.2
Tolerant@12:49--Ask Aurator about SDR~gold certificates...
Tolerant, Goose, et.al.: Your posts about things military:
There is an interesting book, The Gestalts of War, scholarly, which distills down to this: War is caused by Fear. Oh my. Oh my.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:26
Crystal Ball U>(Re: gold hedges) ID#287367: - Another thing- Even hedgers have margin requirements... ( albeit lower than those of specs ) Where do they get the money for all these shorts, and where are they going to get the money to cover the margin calls if the spring gets sprung, and gold pops $40 in a day?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:19
aurator U>(Eat it!) ID#257148: - That's http://www.indiaconnect.com/ani.htm
Ted G'day - here for a few minutes only
aurator
moonwalkin' outahere
sht sht shhhht - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:18
Crystal Ball U>(@Hedge selling) ID#287367: - Re: the fear that any rise in the gold price will be met by forward hedge selling from gold mining interests...Haven't they already sold forward as much as four years output? How much more can they possibly sell? Ten years, twenty years? And why would they at this pitiful price? If I ran a gold mine, I'd send everybody home and close up shop until I could get a decent price for the gold.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:16
aurator U>(Jacko's Jockos) ID#257148: - WE have got it all wrong, folks, Not the IMF, not the BOJ, not the FRB nor the EMU, it's not Soros nor Camdessus ( sp ) nor Hashimoto nor Bill GAtes who is positioning to become Novus Order Secorum ( whettheheck ) introducing the next king of the world
CASH-STRAPPED SOUTH KOREA TAKES TIME OFF FOR
MICHAEL JACKSON
Hong Kong, Nov.22 ( ANI ) : While South Korea is passing through its worst
ever financial crisis, Michael Jackson has come to help a leading presidential candidate and an undergarment company.
A presidential front-runner candidate for the next-month's elections, Kim
Dae-jung, has discussed with Jackson, the king of pop, to make music and
compose a song together calling for peace on the Korean peninsula.
Kim has reportedly asked Jackson to invest in the country to which he has
responded positively. Jackson has also discussed investment projects with a South Korean underwear making company.
While the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) was preparing to bail out South Korea from the current economic crisis, Jackson invited Kim to attend a world children's summit. ( ANI )
ttp://www.indiaconnect.com/ani.htm - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:14
tolerant1 U>(I did not suggest anything. It was on the news.) ID#31868: - The NBC Evening News April 16, 1996 said: 5,000 police officers from around the world will protect the Olympics in Atlanta. Newsweek June 24, 1996 said foreign law enforcement agencies would protect the Olympics. This event was the first time since the War of 1812 that foreign troops patrolled a U.S. city. Was this a test case for the future? There was no need for these troops.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:11
Ted U>(@ C.U.P.W.) ID#364147: - C.U.P.W. + UNIONS suk........go team gold!!~~~~~~~~
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:10
tolerant1 U>(Hmmmm.) ID#31868: - China is building a large facility including an ammunition plant in Adelanto, California to distribute its products with 1,000 Chinese workers expected to move in. There are plans to build similar facilities in Charleston, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana. U.S. tax payers are subsidizing a $138 million loan guarantee to build ships for the China Ocean Shipping Co. ( COSCO ) in Alabama. This company is controlled by the Chinese military.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:08
Crystal Ball U>(@The Magnificent Seven) ID#287367: - If G-d did not want them sheared, he would not have made them sheep.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:08
tolerant1 U>(Hmmmm.) ID#31868: - On April 1, 1997 the AP said for the first time since the 1950s Chinese ships can now dock near U.S. military installations with only a day's notice. And there are plans to bring Chinese troops to the U.S. for training exercises. Yet currently 450 Chinese businesses are under federal investigation for espionage, and China continues to be attacked in the press for illegal campaign contributions to the Democratic/Republican Party. COSCO has been attempting, with White House support, to lease the closed naval facility in Long Beach. Under the agreement U.S. Customs could only inspect one in 8 COSCO ships so it will be impossible to prevent illegal drugs and weapons from entering the U.S. Strategic Investments ( May, 1997 ) said the Chinese military has agreed to distribute opium/heroin for Burma. Last year U.S. Customs in Oakland seized 2,000 AK-47s delivered on a COSCO ship.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:04
Crystal Ball U>(@Tolerant1) ID#287367: - You are not suggesting that these foreign troops are here to quell resistance by We the people? Or are you?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:03
tolerant1 U>(Crazy or Not - Where are the problems, Korea, Middle East, hmmmm) ID#31868: - A war in Korea or the Middle east would be most likely with many U.S. troops sent overseas. Second, foreign troops in Canada and Mexico would be greatly increased. Third, phony excuses would be created to have a national emergency requiring martial law in the U.S. Once again the militias will be falsely blamed. Many plans exist for FEMA to take control during a national emergency with the Constitution and Bill of Rights being suspended, as Jack Anderson noted in October, 1984. Numerous Executive Orders exist that would take away all our rights. Fourth, with many senior officers supporting the Consititution, there might be late night raids to arrest and remove hundreds of officers. There could be an announcement that there was a military coup threatened by officers with a call backed by the national press to support the president. Many people would be fooled into this lie just as most German citizens supported the phony national emergency created by Hitler.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 13:02
Crystal Ball U>(@Mike Sheller) ID#287367: - re: yours of 12:20. Sir, I believe you have the gift of prescience... As the president intones solemnly, In the interest of national security, we have stationed troops at strategic metal mining sites to prevent our national treasure from being looted by foreign/hostile interests.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:57
223 U>(answering my handle riddle: SSC has $223,000,000 market cap!) ID#263259: - Bob re your 8:35 post: I've always found the folks at the office at SSC very helpful in answering any questions about their expansions or ( regrettably ) shutdowns. They really go out of their way to give stockholders needed information. # is in stockholder info they send.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:55
Crystal Ball U>(@Another) ID#287367: - Thank you for your reply, sir. As it is, the only way precious can be pried out of *my* hands is if I get a nice Noomie in return.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:54
tolerant1 U>(Hmmmm.) ID#31868: - The Senate passed Amendment 1122 to the 1993 crime bill to bring Hong Kong police into the U.S. to join our federal police. ( Congressional Record November 5, 1993 S15183. See Section 5108 in this bill. ) With Red China now taking possession of Hong Kong, this law would have provided legal cover to bring Red Chinese troops into the U.S. This clause was defeated in the joint House/Senate conference. On November 30, 1994 NBC Evening News quoted the Pentagon as saying there were 5,000 foreign troops in the U.S. While there have been many reports of many foreign troops in the U.S. I have not seen evidence of this. However, while individual foreign troops have come to the U.S. for military training for years, today entire units enter the U.S. and the press openly describes joint military exercises with these soldiers such as in N.C. and Fort Polk, La. In addition, foreign military equipment including tanks are now stored at various bases across the U.S. such as in Alamogordo, N.M. and Billings, MT. The German Air Force now has units at Holloman Air Base, N.M. ( http://www.nebonet.com/headhome/dadmisc/trojan.htm ) Also, the National Guard State Partnership Program was established to exchange American soldiers in National Guard units with personnel from the former Soviet Union, supposedly to promote democracy and human rights in these foreign countries. This is another convenient excuse to send U.S. troops overseas and to bring communist troops here.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:52
sharefin U>(Dad says get to bed.) ID#284255: - SDR
Sorry I was not wanting to upset your day,
But what struck me as unusal was the 'lock-step' pattern.
Notice the similarities of confluence at these two sites.
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov
http://biz.yahoo.com/ go to financial.
Both sites 'over-emphasize one' word too much.
Yamaichi.
California.
---------------------------------------------------------
4am and I'm gone.
Prose till the morrow.
--------------------------------------------------------
I AM
Thou art that head of gold
And also thine the feet of clay
And thine the body, and the mind
That veils the spirit
And thru the years, designed
The soul enclosing walls
That mar our way
Thine is the bright observant eye
The spirit strong
The will to follow
The way, as stumbling on
We see -- clear, more clearly
On the morrow
For ever was it so
The dream, the vision and the grail
But the body
Oh the well loved flesh
With all its stubborn will to fail
We need must pray
Dear head of gold
Be still and pray
Dear heart, in faith forever strive
That other better way to hold
And stumble on with feet of clay
The golden dream to keep alive.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:51
Crystal Ball U>(@Mike Sheller) ID#287367: - Thank you for yours of 11:10
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:49
tolerant1 U>(Hmmm.) ID#31868: - Crisis Investing for the Rest of the '90s-Douglas Casey
A quote:
If a dollar can be called an IOU nothing, the SDR can be called a Somebody owes you nothing.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:45
Spud Master U>(US takeover of Saudi Arabia?) ID#273112: - A. Goose: yes, it would only make sense for those US troops to be in Saudi Arabia to take over once the current ailing King dies; to put into power some puppet more amenable to US interests than the current Crown Prince. Why even pretend that we ( US ) wouldn't do *anything* to insure the flow of oil to the West? America lost claim to any moral high ground a long time ago. Now, with the venal Clinton gang, we are hardly better than the mainland Chinese thug-lords. American lap-dog press spin-out any story to delude & misdirect public attention. Ben Franklin would be in utter dismay to see what became of his nation.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:42
tolerant1 U>(I posted this last night and I meant it.) ID#31868: - In response to the post about the government, and bankers robbing the people of the world.
My reaction to what those thieves are doing is simple. Lets storm the walls. I'll dive on the bayonets so the rest of you can get those bastards.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:34
A.Goose U>(SDRer - - quotes starting in sdr's, are pm's up or down in terms of sdrs?) ID#200173: - Interesting, they are now starting to make quotes in terms of the sdr.
Overall, Australian commodity prices -- measured in
currency neutral terms ( Special Drawing Rights - SDRs )
-- fell 2.6 per cent this month.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971124/market/markets9.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:32
SDRer__A U>(Lewis Carrol meets Voltaire) ID#287277: -
Dr. Pangloss ( Gr. “all tongue” ) is alive and well, a naturalized American citizen living in Georgetown.
“All is for the best in this best of all possible worlds.” , has become the clarion call of savvy market participants.
In 1996 ( March, if I remember rightly ) Business Week’s cover story was about Morgan Stanley’s big push into emerging markets. “For the FUTURE!”.
With apologies to the good Dr. Pangloss, one can not help but wonder how MS is coping today. Pinning hopes on the Manila/Vanilla Plan perhaps?
Meanwhile, well down the rabbit hole, there is the Paris Club, which forgives sovereign debt, the London Club, which forgives commercial debt, and the Houston Club, so shrouded in secrecy that it must be forgiving something quite unforgivable. ( See footnote )
Does the salvation of the financial world depend on forming Forgiveness Clubs in all the world’s capitals?
Meanwhile, the IMF’s 20b to S. Korea is a five gallon ( leaky ) bucket hauled from the rapidly emptying Pool of Words.
IMHO, the IMF is ‘banking’ on strengthening the following request into a solid ‘last option’ which will allow them to bring forward SDR global currency, with gold backing, and the discipline of prudent fiduciary principles.
http://www.ft.com/reports/wbnews.htm
IT will not replace national currencies. People will NOT be carrying it in their pockets, have it in their bank accounts, and only a very privileged few will be paid in it.
But it will be the global accounting tool, the teacher’s ruler with which knuckles of wayward governments and multinationals will be soundly rapped.
Footnote: The Houston Club - I conjecture that the Houston Club is the fulcrum for the ‘laundering’ of US bonds for oil. Japan may not have quite as many left as we think.
Or Another may have the Right of It, and none of this matters a whit.
The Wooden statue of Palladium has been stolen from Troy...and the city will burn to the ground...
Sharefin: I shall NOT thank you for the earthquate info...in this small case, IGNORANCE IS BLISS! - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:29
sharefin U>(U want to get physical?) ID#284255: - A Goose
This was passed on to me as a very good source.
Nick - I posted the Perth Mint info. Call Gordon Smith ( bullion purchasing officer ) on 08 9421 7420 and he will fax you a heap of info on buy/sell prices etc. for the precious in all shapes, sizes and forms. They add 5% but buy back at spot -- inconsequential IMHO.
Apart from this I know little.
( :^}}}}}] - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:28
Carl U>(Mike Sheller) ID#333131: - Thank you again. I still can't read Another's reply to me. Help please.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:21
A.Goose U>(How to hold bullion in Australia?) ID#200173: - sharefin :
As you know I have accounts in your homeland. I own shares but no bullion. How might I go about buying and holding bullion in Australia? I would appreciate specific recommenations, thanks in advance. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:20
Mike Sheller U>(Shearing the Sheep) ID#347447: - CARL, and all: It was only a little more than sixty years ago that a nation like America, considered quite Laissez Faire and Free by any standard in those days, and certainly a paragon of market and individual freedom by Kitco standards today, saw its government, at the behest of a HANDFUL of men, literallyTAKE the gold coins and bars from its citizen's fingers, safe deposit boxes, and dresser drawers. All under an emergency powers act that stands even today. While ANOTHER has referred to the danger ahead as a regression to earlier times, I submit, with all respect to his sagacious observations, that recent history is replete with examples of how this behavior by governments of free nations continues. It is a horrifying thought only to we misanthropic and atavistic goldbugs who know SOMETHING about the true relationship gold and paper money have had over centuries. The average person, even the average investor of today, knows or cares little of such things. The thief will come in the night, and only those who have the eyes to see and the ears to hear will know what is truly happening.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 12:02
sharefin U>(Eb-bull-ant) ID#284255: - EB must be playing Black Sabbath again
Shake rattle and roll.
Recent Earthquakes in California and Nevada
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/index_map.gif
Quake chart - Volume graph looks like golds.
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/WEEKREPS/LATEST/cencal.gif
Now this one shows where the action really is
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/WEEKREPS/LATEST/world.gif
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tech Review - lengthy but informative.
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/TechRev.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:59
sharefin U>(Eb-bull-ant) ID#284255: - EB
Now should I have been in the:
Eb-bull-ant Short Gold Fund
The Large Growth Benefits Fund
Or the Sharefin Short Stocks Fund
For the last month.
Now that is the question.
And as for next month?
Hummmmm?
Ponder?
Ponder?
Ponder?
--------------------------------------------------------------
ANOTHER's collection
http://www.kitcomm.com/pub/discussion/ANOTHER.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:49
Carl U>(Another) ID#333131: - Thank you for replying, but for some reason your post lost its link and I can't read it. Would you be so kind as to re post?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:45
wert U>(News Server : great url's keep up the good work) ID#234182: - as above
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:40
ANOTHER U>(Mr. Sheller,) ID#60253: - Sir, thank you.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:40
tolerant1 U>(last post by Another) ID#31868: - Can anybody read Another's last post?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:35
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - a reply,
Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:18
Carl ( Another, Please explain ) ID#333131:
Carl,
The world has changed and the gold market has
changed with it. We are going back in time much
further than many will accept. A time when men,
such as I, will take what is yours! If you hold your
value in a public way, it will be taxed or taken for
the good of all. Such are the ways of extream times!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:34
Carl U>(Mike Sheller) ID#333131: - Thanks. Now you're really starting to scare the hell out of me!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:34
Steve - Perth U>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au) ID#284177: - Steve’s specially edited: UPDATED NEWS VIA AUSTRALIA
Yamaichi Turmoil ahead this week
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971124/business/business1.html
CS First Boston's US-based economist, Dr Albert Wojnilower, told Business Sunday that a meltdown in the Japanese financial system would cause a depression there.
It's the world's chief threat because there is, I'm afraid, a possibility of the Japanese financial system melting down in the way that would prompt a depression of the 1930s' US-character in Japan. ( Japan is Australia's biggest trading partner. )
Japan Giant latest Asian Victim
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971124/world/world1.html
Risky Business as Japanese Finance Sector Unravels
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971124/world/wtokyo.html
There’s nowhere to hide
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971124/market/markets4.html
US Market in ga-ga land
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971124/market/markets3.html
Silver Up, Cocoa Down. ( Includes Silver Price Chart )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971124/market/markets9.html
Delta Gold/Placer Dome stake possibly first round of Gold Industry Rationalisation
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business2.html
A quick history lesson shows that booms do bust - The Maverick
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/market/markets2.html
Humble Seoul faces the economic music
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world2.html
Beijing calls for urgent overhaul
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/world/world4.html
Recovery in Korea or Japan Not Close, Says Westpac Inv. Manager
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business1.html
National Australia Bank paints gloomy picture for 1998
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business4.html
Korea casts long shadow over Australian economy
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/business/business5.html
Korea & Japan going under may spell Global Deflation
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/perspective/perspective4.html
Asia Doomsayers emerge in the US ( Ed Yardini/Henry Kaufman )
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world2.html
Wake Up! This shock in Global!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world3.html
Liquidators move in on Japanese Department Store Chain in Hong Kong
http://www.afr.com.au/content/971122/world/world4.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:34
tolerant1 U>(Mike Sheller) ID#31868: - I sought merely to point to the ridiculous situation Clinton has gotten us into since his election as President. What Kennedy gave away will look like nothing compared to what Clinton has knowingly done.
His collusion with the Chinese will make him a national disgrace and the United States a much weaker nation.
His international stupidities are more than just the acts of an ignorant man.
His becoming national disgrace used to be called treason.
I too hope that young men and women are not sacrificed due to the acts of the man the United States call Commander in Chief.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:30
Mike Sheller U>(If I may...) ID#347447: - CARL: If I may, Carl, though I realize that ANOTHER is more than capable of answering any question put to him ( except perhaps on astral matter ) , I think Another's point is that governments and their colluding institutional partners and allies, once they have created a mess of things, invariably compound their malfeasance by arbitrarily changing the rules of the game ( the law ) to cover their asses.
In such a case as Another, and others at Kitco, are alluding to, an uncontrolled rising gold price will doubtless impell authorities to conspire to take the metal out of the hands of the markets ( ie: FREE CITIZENS ) and retain it for their own purposes and preservation. This can be done with comex stocks, and other well-known above-ground supplies, and it can also be done by regulating, nationalizing, or otherwise controlling the industry and corporations that trade bullion, own or lease mine properties, and extract gold from the earth. This is a REAL threat. As an officer in a public mining company, don't think it is not on MY mind. Another's contention that gold bullion owned outright is the safest and wisest way to hold gold assets at this point is not without merit. It is, in fact, quite wise. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:21
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - A reply,
Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:59
Crystal Ball ( @Another ) ID#287367:
Surely the dollar will find some price
at which an ounce of gold can be pried out from the woodwork.
If not, G-d help us all!
Mr. C.B.,
The future will look back at us with respect, as we knew not what
was happening! A day will come, sir, when no paper dollar
will pry gold from your hands! In that day, you will be too smart
for such foolishness!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:19
Mike Sheller U>(Hot Damn, Viet Nam?) ID#347447: - TOLERANT 1: Tell me about it. Sure we're a flea there, but then how does one expect Clinton ( and you KNOW I have no love for him ) or anyone else to insure anything for US interests or allies in Asia?
I wouldn't want MY son ( USA ) or MY daughter-in-law ( PRC ) to have to shed blood over NK/ SK affairs. The best policy is to keep a low profile in Asia and face reality re China's growing authority as a nation. We can remove every single American man, woman and child from SK and simply threaten nuclear retaliation for any Chinese or NK nefariousness. And that may be as stupid as trying to remain there in force. My point is, that given Clinton's thin spread of military strength, at least the removal of one useless point of troop concentration will be helpful.
Especially given the new negotiations, the likelihood may arise of a reduced possibility of conventional ground action against an invading army. Especially once the US government empties our pockets to put NK on welfare. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:18
Carl U>(Another, Please explain) ID#333131: - Another, Please explain your thinking that mining shares would be consumed with other paper if the gold market locks up. Wouldn't the lock up be due to a corner on physical gold. If so, wouldn't the mines' production be enormously saleable and profitable to them at least in dollar terms?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:17
Paul U>(tolerant1) ID#22785: - Regarding your post of 11:07. Your comment on President Clinton's treasonable acts is very well stated! When will Congress wake up and finally impeach him? Our military is in sad shape.
I appreciate your posts! Thank you. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:10
Mike Sheller U>(In the pits) ID#347447: - CRYSTAL BALL: There is absolutely no question that the gold mining stocks are the most distressed investment vehicle around today. I hesitate to say undervalued because a free market is MEANT to value things, and if the market says low value then the value IS low. For now. In any case, history is replete with market cycles, and sub cycles, where the downtrodden left-behind of one time period is the fresh darling of the next. Nothing new. The PM mining industry is in the same situation as the energy sector was in '94 and '95. Now everyone is doing big energy deals at inflated prices. Can energy go higher? sure. Will gold recover? sure. It's just a situation for long-term trend investors, portfolio managers, and corporate business folks ( them's what's buying properties now at giveaway prices - the best.corporate play, and the next best play aside from averaging bullion ) . The strategy now for the gold market is not for day traders or civilian futures players at this stage.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:07
tolerant1 U>(Mike Sheller) ID#31868: - The US is a flea as far as troops go in the Asian quadrant. The Chinese could have 20,000,000 armed participants in N.Korea at the drop of a hat.
A big hat yes, but clearly if ( I am unsure of the NK and C true relationship ) called upon by the madman in NK the Chinese could respond with those kinds of numbers and have 180,000,000 to spread around.
What President Clinton has allowed around the globe as Commander in Chief is of the United States armed forces is a treasonable act in my belief.
History will not look well upon what President Clinton did to the security of free world.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:01
vronsky U>(“The Rothschilds, LBMA, and Gold” by MARKUS ANGELICUS) ID#427357: - This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD’s financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 11:00
Mike Sheller U>(The Chic Koreas) ID#347447: - TOLERANT 1: I heard it on the news the other day that the US, China, and the 2 Koreas will be entering into talks to work out a true peace rather than a continued ceasefire as obtains presently. This would eventually reduce expenses of troop upkeep, etc, in S. Korea for the US, while likely being a door for humanitarian aid to N. Korea. Such aid would likely be perceived as going a long way toward establishing some goodwill between US & NK, and aid eventaul normalization of relationships, and perhaps even a psuedo ( did I spell that rite? ) democratization of this totalitarian basket case of a nation. On balance, the deflationists could see this as another feather in their headdress. America will need the reserve troop strength and the diversionary threat removed for the year 2000 in the middle east.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:59
tolerant1 U>(Hmmm. Gold in NY at CB, not even the shell from peanuts!) ID#31868: - 12,000 tons in NY - as per one of the Baron pieces.
LBMA - Daily - 930 tons a day as per one of the Baron pieces.
Comment from one of the Red Baron pieces on gold-eagle.com
In an attempt to make sense of this, I view the gold market as having several basic types of supply/demand components. The first is what everyone reads about: producer supply and scrap on one side, and fabrication demand on the other. A second type rises from CB's adding to or reducing gold reserves. And this together with the first is often massaged and misleadingly reported to support the spin that the media or commentator desires to make with respect to gold supply and demand. And depending on the spin, one could believe that there is a huge deficit, a modest amount or a surplus. The third type which I believe is most important is investment supply and demand on which I have not seen much published except for related speculative buying and selling on the futures exchange. I view gold hedging in the same manner as naked speculative buying and selling. It may temporarily affect price when being implemented or unwound, but it does not affect price based on physical supply since it neither adds to or reduces total supply.
Red Baron comment: Recognized experts estimate
the amount of existing gold in private hands at
about 80,000 tonnes - approximately equivalent
to 35 years of annual gold mine production
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:59
Crystal Ball U>(@Another) ID#287367: - I hope it never gets to the point where even a wheelbarrow full of hundred dollar bills will not buy an ounce of gold. Surely the dollar will find some price at which an ounce of gold can be pried out from the woodwork. If not, G-d help us all!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:57
Paul U>(ANOTHER) ID#22785: - Your THOUGHTS are interesting and much appreciated. Thank you. Please keep posting.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:54
Crystal Ball U>(@Carl and Paul) ID#287367: - You are most welcome!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:51
Crystal Ball U>(@WDL) ID#287367: - I agree oil companies may flourish, but their stock prices are quite lofty, and may suffer in the general stock market tumble that will surely come. Gold mining companies, on the other hand, have already fallen precipitously, and likely don't have much downside left. Were GOLD to revive from its long sleep, the mining cos. could be the beneficaries. I think ECO, ABX, FCX, HM, and ASA ( the closed-end RSA mining stock fund ) , to name a few, are very undervalued at present. PGU @ $1/share anyone?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:51
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - Auric,
In this age of “digital currencies” it is impossible to see how fast the thoughts of people are shown as actions! Many will wait for markets to do what they have done in the past, “looking backward to see forward”. Be known that most of the actions by the ultra large players is complete. When the change in direction of gold starts, it will be hyper fast! A good many will run to the US$ first, making that currency rise with gold and misleading much people. Before Christmas? I do not know.
The Pacific Rim has begun a process that will not end. Much paper value will burn before this fire is done!
Many gold stocks will rise with gold and most people will hold for gains. But they will never see then converted to value. If the gold markets lock before they reach $1,000 , all mining stocks will be consumed in the paper fire. A sad day for many.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:47
vronsky U>(CENTRAL BANK GOLD OPERATIONS AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS - CONCLUSIONS) ID#427357: - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY - by THE RED BARON
Something is amiss - something is causing this anomaly rapped in an enigma. Some force - external to the market - is controlling the price of the noble metal. Something is forcing it to be range bound! This begs the following questions: 1 ) By whom? and 2 ) Why?
There is only one entity, which has both means and motive for the job: Central Banks. And Who is the MOTHER OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS: Federal Reserve Bank of New York! Hard to believe, BUT TRUE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:46
tolerant1 U>(WDL) ID#31868: - It would appear that the sword you mention may be less than a butter knife at the global table setting. If as some here think, that the game is gold vs the dollar
The Central Bank holdings in NY would be a flea by comparison to gold holdings in the hands of the masters.
The Central Bank in NY may appear to be a brute, but then the COMEX is considered big, but pales when measured against the LBMA daily trading.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:37
tolerant1 U>(Carl) ID#31868: - Most Welcome.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:37
WDL U>(thoughts and predictions...) ID#24095: - Good morning Kitcoites from just outside Boston...havent't posted in several months...but..just thinking as I finish my second cup of coffee...
Your views and feedback on the following would be welcomed...
What is going on? Is the Central Bank Sword of Damocles so strong as to keep the price of gold so depressed in a time when it should be
rising markedly as fiat money is being called into question? Are there
any other safe havens once filled by gold that have reduced the yellow metal to a bit player on the world stage?
Is it me, or do I need to pinch myself. I looked as some of the medium-
sized gold companies..read Echo Bay, Royal Oak, and Pegasus selling
for a buck or two-and-change and I find myself saying...Are any of these
raging buys? If they're just shuttering some mines...yet their balance sheets are in order....
I know this is a gold chat...but I believe, as I have in the past, that oil
stocks may come up HUGE! To my way of thinking...this Saddam Hussein Iraqi situation is NOT going away. Saddam is playing with the United States and the rest of the world...There's only so much that Clinton will take...push will come to shove...maybe not today, not tomorrow, but...
The major beneficiary will be oil stocks...
Your views..opinions..thanks.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:37
Paul U>(Crystal Ball) ID#22785: - Your post of 10:14 is very informative. Thanks much!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:36
tolerant1 U>(The British still intrigue me.) ID#31868: - I have said for a very long time, long before arriving at Kitco that I thought the British controlled International Banking.
Why did the British not want in to the Euro? There is much afoot in the world of finance. In my mind the British have long figured that military control is not the answer.
And you can be certain that plans to release HK were meticulously planned and thought forward.
The key to the door we seek is in our minds but the door which allows us entrance to the vault of answers is in England.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:33
Carl U>(Crystal Ball and tolerant 1) ID#333131: - Many thanks.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:26
Crystal Ball U>(@Carl) ID#287367: - Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:32
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
One new day gold will begin a rise that will end it’s use as a trading
medium. This reevaluation will end a tradition in London. No gold house
will make a market that has no sellers, official world gold trade will
end for many years! And with it will go the last true value to trade
for oil. Oil will skyrocket in all currencies. Those who have metal
will learn it’s value in oil. All things in life change, the world will
not be the same.
Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:13
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
This was written: “To find the answer to the LBMA ,
“Follow the connection from London, to South Africa, to the
Middle East, and on to Asia”
Mr. Markus Angelicus,
I read the gold-eagle write. You have made the link between
London ( LBMA ) and South Africa .
Also:
Many look to the middle east and say “they control the oil market
no more”. I say “you see not what is in front of your eyes”!
They do not have to keep oil up in price to control it.
One can gain more wealth by keeping oil down than by driving it
up, much more! And what is the value of this type of manipulation?
It is measured in gold! Tell me now, what gain is there to destroy
the world economy with high cost oil when they will provide you
gold instead?
But what value gold? All say “it is only a commodity subject to
supply and demand”! Understand me, Demand and supply
is written by BIS and $15 oil can cost $250 gold or $10,000 gold,
whatever is required! $250 gold and LBMA will live! $10,000 gold
and LBMA is sacrificed!
But, it will never come to this. The oil “understanding” was broken by
the Asians. More gold has been sold than can ever be covered! This
market is not the same as the past. One day gold will start up and
BIS will deal with it the only way possible!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:24
tolerant1 U>(Carl) ID#31868: - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 09:40
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
A reply to:
Date: Wed Nov 19 1997 19:23
QestorObservationsQestorObservations ( Qestor@Observations ) ID#223146:
Tolerant1,ROR & All-The continued draw down of gold stocks at the comex
are contrary to pssible expectations of those powers that be, who may be trying to drive the gold price down. The Comex is the most visible market where one can see changes in physical stocks. Based on all the analysis that has surfaced regarding the selling of gold stocks from CBs--- Where is it? I believe that the sales have been derivitive in nature and unless we start seeing a rise in deliverable gold at the Comex the nature and reality of gold may precipitate the derivative players worst nightmare. If Another is correct in that the CBs never release their gold but only the right the write paper based on it's value then we may have the mother of all short squeezes if the longs hold the December contracts past notice day. Comments please.
Mr. Questor,
We are well past this stage now. Join me and other big traders as we watch
THE GREAT SCRAMBLE!
Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:32
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
One new day gold will begin a rise that will end it's use as a trading
medium. This reevaluation will end a tradition in London. No gold house
will make a market that has no sellers, official world gold trade will end for many years! And with it will go the last true value to trade
for oil. Oil will skyrocket in all currencies. Those who have metal
will learn it's value in oil. All things in life change, the world will not be the same.
Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:13
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
This was written: To find the answer to the LBMA ,
Follow the connection from London, to South Africa, to the
Middle East, and on to Asia
Mr. Markus Angelicus,
I read the gold-eagle write. You have made the link between
London ( LBMA ) and South Africa .
Also:
Many look to the middle east and say they control the oil market
no more. I say you see not what is in front of your eyes!
They do not have to keep oil up in price to control it.
One can gain more wealth by keeping oil down than by driving it
up, much more! And what is the value of this type of manipulation?
It is measured in gold! Tell me now, what gain is there to destroy
the world economy with high cost oil when they will provide you
gold instead?
But what value gold? All say it is only a commodity subject to
supply and demand! Understand me, Demand and supply
is written by BIS and $15 oil can cost $250 gold or $10,000 gold,
whatever is required! $250 gold and LBMA will live! $10,000 gold
and LBMA is sacrificed!
But, it will never come to this. The oil understanding was broken by
the Asians. More gold has been sold than can ever be covered! This
market is not the same as the past. One day gold will start up and
BIS will deal with it the only way possible!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:22
Crystal Ball U>(@Carl) ID#287367: - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 09:40
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
A reply to:
Date: Wed Nov 19 1997 19:23
Qestor@ObservationsQestor@Observations>Qestor@ObservationsQestor@Observations ( Qestor@Observations )
ID#223146:
Tolerant1,ROR & All-The continued draw down of gold stocks at the comex
are contrary to pssible expectations of those powers that be, who may
be trying to drive the gold price down. The Comex is the most visible
market where one can see changes in physical stocks. Based on all the
analysis that has surfaced regarding the selling of gold stocks from
CBs--- Where is it? I believe that the sales have been derivitive in
nature and unless we start seeing a rise in deliverable gold at the
Comex the nature and reality of gold may precipitate the derivative
players worst nightmare. If Another is correct in that the CBs never
release their gold but only the right the write paper based on it's
value then we may have the mother of all short squeezes if the longs
hold the December contracts past notice day. Comments please.
Mr. Questor,
We are well past this stage now. Join me and other big traders as we
watch
“THE GREAT SCRAMBLE”!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:20
tolerant1 U>(all) ID#31868: - The United States is in a horrible military position. Korea could flare up at any moment. The US military machine is spread so thin it must be a nightmare for those looking at the global inventory distribution.
Bosnia, the Middle East, Korea and countless countries in the former USSR.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:20
Speed U>(Iraq) ID#286199: - U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Bill Richardson is on Fox News. He says that Iraq has placed 47 locations off-limits to inspectors ( mostly presidential palaces ) . Sanctions won't be lifted until Iraq complies.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:17
Carl U>(Help with Another's posts) ID#333131: - I cannot open Another's 9:40 post. Also I missed and cannot retrieve last night's posts. Could Another or someone re post them for me? Thanks
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:16
Crystal Ball U>(@Speed) ID#287367: - The game is over. The Emperor has no clothes
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:15
tolerant1 U>(Auric) ID#31868: - I am trying my best to determine where the map leads us all that Another has spread on the table before us.
As you can tell from my posts I may walk as a man, but many times when I open my mouth I crawl as nothing more than a child.
The game is done. That is apparent. The miniscule scraps of gold are meaningless. They are not even crumbs left on the global plate.
Make no mistake, no other metal means anything but gold. Everything else will be determined from that vantage point. No matter if oil or any other thing is what drives the determining price of the metal. Gold is the key to measure in this equation.
Your paper will only have value during the maddening gyrations. It is still a question if you hold paper which binds you to those that hold gold in the ground such as mining companies will have any value. Apparently Another is telling us what you hold in your hand is the only real gold you have.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:14
Crystal Ball U>(@Another, Aurator, Auric, et al...) ID#287367: - America Naked to the World
http://www.nypostonline.com/editorial/1094.htm
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:11
Crystal Ball U>(@Another) ID#287367: - You the man ! FYI - Commodities behaving badly
http://www.nypostonline.com/business/1088.htm
And as things fell apart,
Nobody paid much attention... - David Byrne & Talking Heads, Nothing but Flowers
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:09
vronsky U>(“Currency Chaos and Financial Collapse” PART - II (24 Nov 1997)) ID#427357: - To maintain the present price, central banks must loan into the market the shortfall between supply and demand. To decrease the price further, they must loan even more. As mines close down, they will need to loan even more. Someday, central banks will reach the limit of the gold they will loan. Demand now exceeding supply will cause the GOLD price to rise.
Once Asia collapses totally, there will be a massive move out of U.S. dollars. Some money will move out to help pay for the massive losses in Asia, and other funds will be used to buy factories now selling at a fraction of pre-crash prices. All of Asia will be on sale and money will rush in.
... the only solution being a common world wide currency:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/kutyn112197.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 10:06
Speed U>(Anecdotal evidence) ID#286199: - I visited a pawn shop Saturday, looking for coins. They had no silver and only one gold $5 piece. There were already 4 buyers lined up for the gold coin if the owner didn't come get it out of hock.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 09:55
Auric U>(Kitco) ID#255151: -
ANOTHER--while I have you here, could you give your opinion on how Gold and Silver mining companies will fare? Examples including, but not restricted to HM, AEM, FSR, SSRIF, PAASF, NEM, ABX, Central Fund of Canada, Rydex PM fund. Also, do you think your scenario will play out before Christmas? Thanks. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 09:40
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - A reply to:
Date: Wed Nov 19 1997 19:23
Qestor@Observations>Qestor@Observations ( Qestor@Observations ) ID#223146:
Tolerant1,ROR & All-The continued draw down of gold stocks at the comex
are contrary to pssible expectations of those powers that be, who may be trying to drive the gold price down. The Comex is the most visible market where one can see changes in physical stocks. Based on all the analysis that has surfaced regarding the selling of gold stocks from CBs--- Where is it? I believe that the sales have been derivitive in nature and unless we start seeing a rise in deliverable gold at the Comex the nature and reality of gold may precipitate the derivative players worst nightmare. If Another is correct in that the CBs never release their gold but only the right the write paper based on it's value then we may have the mother of all short squeezes if the longs hold the December contracts past notice day. Comments please.
Mr. Questor,
We are well past this stage now. Join me and other big traders as we watch
“THE GREAT SCRAMBLE”!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 09:27
Skylark U>(@) ID#93130: - SAS Thanks for the well-stated response. I am in accord with your viewpoints except I take the view that the real rate of interest is aparently consistent with sustained noninflationary growth in the US economy as measured by CPI and PPI standards. Whether the rate is adequate to maintain future non inflationary growth is subject to dispute but the present yield curve predicts that it is.
Stock market inflation has certainly occurred and fueled by low interest rates, but this wealth effect seemingly has not affected inflation in the rest of the economy - nor apparently in other countries having rapid growth - which I find incongruous. Other factors of the new paridigm apparently have more influence. I also expected at least some resurgence of inflation in the PPI but it has not occurred and again, the yield curve is not predicting it - although Roach and others maintain that it is just around the bend.
I take the view that gold reflects the future state of inflation and that CB and speculator selling attributed by others for the fall of gold merely are symptematic of the fall and not the cause of it. If economic conditions were suitable for gold to rise, then investor demand would absorb any and all CB selling and there would be speculative buying not speculative selling. These economic conditions that have been and are being predicted by gold are becoming more apparent each day with the drop in the price of oil and other commodities. Serious consideration should be given to the fact that if commodities have performed as poorly as they have during the recent past global economic growth, what will happen to them during any decline in GDP.
For gold to rise, there has to be a change of economic or other conditions that historically has caused gold to rise. Drying up of producer supply may provide a narrow support base which may continue for years to come but I do not believe gold will significantly rise until such a change occurs. The Armstrong theory of capital movement volitility is interesting, is presently playing out to some extent, and will be interesting to observe.
I also agree that all signs indicate gold is going lower, but I also recognize that can quickly change. I try to keep in mind that a market rarely accommodates sure things like a substantial fall in gold that almost everyone predicts and seemingly is so transparent in the market - even though I must admit the market recently readily accommodated these sooth-sayers like a whore for a quick buck. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 09:18
ANOTHER U>(THOUGHTS!) ID#60253: - Many wait for the next great bull market in gold to begin before
they buy. Why buy now and lose interest or stock market gains?
They will miss the greatest investment ever to come in ones
lifetime!
The powers of this world have already begun this motion. People
of simple thought have but to buy physical gold and make low as
the financial wars begin! You see, gold was cornered this year. It
is done. No Central Bank will sell it’s 50, 100, 200 million ozs gold
when 600 million is needed! I ask you, how can currency price gold?
Indeed, no price will work! You think any form of “paper gold” will
stand this fire? Can we do battle with lions? When oil will not take
currency without gold the havenots will not sit still!
“When a thousand hungry lions fight over one scrap of food, small
dogs should hide with whats in their belly”.
A world waits for something to happen that is done. Read my
Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:13
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
and
Date: Sat Nov 22 1997 23:32
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
then be very sure to read Mr. Mr. Markus Angelicus,
on Gold Eagle! Then you will know!
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:35
Bob M U>(gold@bitterroot.net) ID#26059: - A field report to anyone interested..yesterday I drove through the Silver Valley in Northern Idaho..and made an interesting observation from the grass roots level..I saw 4 semi loads carrying new mining equiptment into the area, 2 loads of brand spanking new ore cars painted yellow and 2 loads of heavier conveyor equiptment....could be a sign that the people who are sitting on the biggest silver reserve in the US are gearing up for something big? Take it for what its worth..
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:31
vronsky U>(“The Rothschilds, LBMA, and Gold” by MARKUS ANGELICUS) ID#426220: - This is perhaps the most comprehensive and accurate overview of the HOUSE OF ROTHSCHILD’s financial activities during the last 200 years. And undoubtedly, NO ONE heretofore has ever come closer - indeed DARED - to estimating the extent of the Rothschild wealth TODAY... and what it might be up to in its traditional business of trading Treasuries and GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/markus112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:25
sas U>(PEI) ID#283121: -
NOMERCY & EB :
Princeton's outlook for gold has remained consistent for at least the past 18 months. They are expecting gold to bottom in line with the 8.6 year business cycle, the next major turning point for which is July 1998. All doubt regarding new lows in 1998 will be removed if we get a 1997 year end close below 304.30. In Martin Armstrong's humble opinion.
Cheers, sas - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:20
vronsky U>(CENTRAL BANK GOLD OPERATIONS AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS - CONCLUSIONS) ID#426220: - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY - by THE RED BARON
Something is amiss - something is causing this anomaly rapped in an enigma. Some force - external to the market - is controlling the price of the noble metal. Something is forcing it to be range bound! This begs the following questions: 1 ) By whom? and 2 ) Why?
There is only one entity, which has both means and motive for the job: Central Banks. And Who is the MOTHER OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS: Federal Reserve Bank of New York! Hard to believe, BUT TRUE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron112297.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:19
Carl U>(News Server) ID#333131: - Thanks again. The uab site looks great.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:18
elf U>(search engines) ID#33180: - News Server: Thanks for the super dogpile URL. Great results. The Inference site, true to its instructions on Boolean searches, gave mixed results; when I used the OR operator to widen a search, I got all the references to the state of Oregon, abbreviated OR! Non-Boolean searches were very fast and useful. Both sites will be terrific to have.
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 08:18
sas U>(Inflation, Interest Rates, etc) ID#283121: -
SKYLARK - re your 9:48 post on 22/11
Most of what you say makes sense, but you seem to have misunderstood my point. AG has said ( as clearly as he does ) that the Asian problems influenced the Fed's decision to leave rates alone. Short term rates are therefore being held lower than they would otherwise be, and this is very definitely inflationary for the US.
Regarding real interest rates, these are only high if you use the CPI to do the calculation and you believe that the CPI correctly states ( or perhaps even understates ) inflation. However, if real rates were actually high then we would not have seen robust economic growth and a huge increase in the money supply during the past 12 months. When the reported statistics don't match the observed reality, the statistics are probably wrong. My belief is that real rates are extremely low.
Regarding the yield curve in the US, it will probably turn negative during the next 6 months. However, this has less to do with US inflation or deflation and more to do with factors external to the US such as EMU. With the US budget likely to be in surplus in 1998 at the same time as demand for long term bonds escalates, rates at the long end will drop. In fact, the demand for US long term debt could provide a mechanism for the non-disruptive sale of Japan's T-Bonds.
The high money supply growth rates seen over the past 2 years have had a major inflationary effect - just look at the US stockmarket. Like all bull markets of the past, this latest one was also fueled by liquidity. At some point financial assets will fall out of favour and tangible assets will benefit.
You said that there is currently no evidence that gold has bottomed. Actually, I think there is a lot of evidence that gold has not bottomed. I am expecting new lows for gold over the next few months.
Re your 10:37 post, my take is that most Asians see gold as the safest means to store wealth, believing that gold will always maintain its purchasing power over a long period of time. If the Indian rupiah was to be devalued, then this could negatively impact the gold price as many Indians tend to purchase the same number of Rupiahs worth of gold each year ( which also partly explains the reported increase in gold fabrication demand over the last year - as the gold price drops, more ounces are purchased for the same amount of currency ) . Just one last point - almost all gold jewellery sold into India is purchased for monetary purposes, a fact often missed when analysing gold demand.
Cheers, sas ( formerly Milhouse )
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 07:37
Auric U>(Kitco ) ID#255151: -
I don't mean to jinx us, but-- It sure is quiet here this morning. Got some work to do today. Check back later this evening. Japan and Korea not looking good. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 07:22
News Server U>(Sunday Morning) ID#390100: -
Here is a URL for Australia that might interest other Kitcoites as well... http://werple.net.au/~lions/index.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 05:41
Robert Tkoch__A U>(Gold and stocks/currencies?) ID#408212: - Using heliocentric analysis, I foresee a bearish stock market and
a slightly bullish dollar beginning with the new moon on Nov.29.
Does anyone have any idea if this combination will affect gold in
any definite manner?
You can read my predictions at:
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 04:56
Auric U>(Korean Bailout $200 Billion?) ID#255151: -
From the Sidney Morning Herald-- Dr. Ken Courtis, Asian analyst for the Deutsche Bank Group, Asian Division says Korean debts closer to $200 Billion. http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/971122/pageone/pageone7.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 03:54
News Server U>(Repost of JTF's URL nugget) ID#390100: -
Most comprehensive compilation of US monetary and economic statistics I've come across as well... http://bos.business.uab.edu/data/data.htm - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 03:48
Jack U>(A classic) ID#252127: -
Bernatz, I hope that the new password system doesn't stop your postings. I still reemembeer your CLASSIC about zee leetle Chelsea keed.
Not against this new system - as many clear well thoughtout posts have been evident over the past several days. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 03:27
News Server U>(URLs) ID#390100: -
Here is a repost of a scary DJIA scenario. http://home.istar.ca/~lowen/ correction... Inference Search is at http://www.inference.com/ifind/ - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 03:04
News Server U>(Search) ID#390100: -
Thanks for feedback on Inference. In answer to question on how this functions try this http://www.inference.com/ifind/boolean.html>http://www.inference.com/ifind/boolean.html Here is a repost for the Inference Search Engine. http://www.inference.com/ifind/ Second point... For those who are very detail oriented, here is the most detailed and comprehensive search engine I have found. A bit complicated for everyday use, but it can find hidden nuggets. http://www.dogpile.com/ - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 02:36
wert U>(news server post2:22) ID#234182: - url Inference Search is top drawer. Thanks, have used it lots since your post with excellenmce results. regards
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 02:33
peewee U>(Test) ID#224137: - goodnight
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 02:22
peewee U>(test) ID#224137: - test
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 02:22
News Server U>(Recommended URL) ID#390100: -
Here is my favorite international news site. http://www.nando.net/nt/world/ P.S. Did you all like the Inference Search? - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 02:11
peewee U>(Test) ID#224137: - Test
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 01:34
A.Goose U>(Japanese may be starting to look for different ways to store value?) ID#200174: - Interesting quote from a recent new item on Japan's challenging situation.
Sunday November 23, 12:24 am Eastern Time
FOCUS-Japan nervously awaits Yamaichi fallout
By Brian Williams
TOKYO, Nov 23 ( Reuters )
A 50-year-old graphic designer who says he has been a customer of the brokerage for about 20 years said he did not know where to put his money any
longer.
``I don't trust banks either, so I suppose I have no choice but to take my money to the postal saving service.'' he said.
Is this fellow a sign of future feelings? How many more people in asia feel as this graphic designer feels. As the currency crisis spreads, more will be looking to gold, silver, platinum ... . - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 01:34
sharefin U>(the Powers Who Be seem very worried!) ID#284255: - FOCUS-Japan nervously awaits Yamaichi fallout
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971123/japan_yamaichi_1stld_1.html
Asia battles nerves, braces for renewed onslaught
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/asia_nerves_1.html
IMF bailout sends Korea Inc back to school
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/korea_imf_graduation_2.html
FUND VIEW-Asia forces global funds to hedge bets
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/asia_funds_1.html
Japan's Yamaichi sees no way out, poised to shut
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/japan_yamaichi_pictu_2.html
BOJ to extend special loans to Yamaichi - paper
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/boj_to_extend_specia_1.html
Yamaichi failure like atomic bomb - industry chief
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/yamaichi_failure_lik_1.html
Market calls the tune for Japan financial firms
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/japan_yamaichi_force_1.html
Brazil ministers say economy still at risk
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/brazil_economy_1.html
Nervous London Yamaichi staff see major fallout
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/japan_yamaichi_londo_2.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/971122/japan_yamaichi_londo_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 01:30
Blutarsky2000 U>(Was it OVER when registration was enacted at Kitco?) ID#261190: -
From now on, my Kitco name is Blutarsky2000. So long, Good Senator. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 01:22
sharefin U>(I hate my ISP connection!) ID#284255: - Having lots of troubles with my ISP providor.
Email and the net are r/s
Can only get intermitant access.
Don't know whether these articles have already been posted.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yamaichi Mulls Shutdown as Crunch Looms
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971122/business/stories/japan_3.html
More Thrills and Spills Seen for Wall St.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/971122/business/stories/stocksweek_1.html
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 01:11
Ted U>(Not a great Saturday) ID#364147: - South Korean stock prices fell sharply in Saturday's half-day trading on
jitters aid from IMF may not end the country's economic troubles any time
soon. The Korea Stock Exchange composite index tumbled 4.1%. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:56
A.Goose U>(What is Clinton doing this time!) ID#200200: - Why is the U.S. making such a strong military move on Iraq? It makes no sense on the surface looking at what has occured with the recent Inspection fiasco, but if what we have been saying about the gold/oil/world currency balance coming undone is correct. Heavy troop concentrations have been placed to protect our access to oil or intimidate oil countries into keeping it flowing to the U.S. This situation could be ANOTHER indication that the game is nearing its end.
Of course, there could be other reasons, like Clinton wants to defocus efforts to expose him ... . I understand that these other factors could also be in play. I simple think it is a important to watch the U.S. troop deployments in the light of our world currency crisis ( oil/gold ) , in that it might give us a indication of timing.
When the world wide currency crash hits, it might be advantageous to have troops close to supplies. Maybe it is closer than anyone thinks!
Gloom and Doom maybe, keeping our eyes open absolutely! ( IMHO ) - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:51
Ted U>(@ The end) ID#364147: - Good night all~~~~~~~~~~~~
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:49
aurator U>(How much gold again?) ID#257148: - chicken feed?
wonder if he got filled?
http://www.maghreb.net/bbs/messages/869.html
Posted by Mr.Kaitano on September 27, 1997 at 01:22:15:
message was posted from this address: data posted from
arnhem-117.trb.pop.tip.nl ,
As Buyer's mandate we are looking for a real and serious Seller of Au ( gold ) .
The Buyer wants to buy 1000 MT gold. The Buyer is ready, willing and able to
start&complete the deal within a few days.
Please send your terms a.s.a.p. - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:43
Savage U>(!!!!!!!!!!!!) ID#280222: - Where is George S. Cole? Will he return to Kitco?
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:38
refer U>() ID#41229: - test
- Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:35
6pak U>() ID#335190: - November 22, 1997
Japan's Yamaichi sees no way out, poised to shut
TOKYO, Nov 23 ( Reuters ) - Japan's oldest brokerage, Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd ( 8602.T ) , was poised on Sunday to shut its doors after a last-ditch review convinced the company there was no chance of survival, Japanese media and financial sources said.
In a business failure that has set off shockwaves at home and abroad, the country's fourth-largest brokerage, laden down by a short-term credit crunch, shrinking business and high-profile scandals, plans to announce the decision on Monday, a national holiday in Japan.
Company executives worked through the weekend to finalise arrangements with financial authorities on how to shut the 100-year-old institution in a way that would protect depositors and cause least turmoil to world financial markets.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper said on Sunday the Bank of Japan was set to extend Yamaichi an unsecured loan of several hundred billion yen ( several billion dollars ) to repay customers and prevent a financial crisis if the brokerage house collapses.
Japan faces the risk that banks would be contaminated by the fallout from Yamaichi. Trouble could also spread to life insurers who have invested heavily in loans to banks.
The biggest international concern was that Japanese banks could be driven to cut their U.S. Treasury holdings to raise liquidity, an action that would have global repercussions.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/JAPAN-YAMAICHI.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:29
6pak U>() ID#335190: - November 22, 1997
Hong Kong will bounce back first - Tung
VANCOUVER ( Reuters ) - Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa declared Saturday that Hong Kong, although buffeted by the financial storm sweeping across Asia, would be the first to bounce back to economic prosperity.Of all the countries and communities that have been affected by the turmoil, I know ours will be the first to rebound, Tung said. I look forward to the future with confidence.
In a speech to corporate CEOs held as part of the Asia Pacific Economic Conference forum in Vancouver, Tung outlined factors he said would help Hong Kong stave off the Asian financial crisis that has forced South Korea to seek a $20 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
Let me first emphasize, the Hong Kong-U.S. dollar link policy is here to stay, Tung said, repeating his government's vow to keep the Hong Kong dollar tightly pegged at HK$7.78 to US$1.
When compared with other Asian markets, our highly liquid, well regulated and transparent stock market will be the first to exchange foreign investment back, he said.
Tung, who referred to himself as the new boy on the block among APEC leaders, took pains to tell his business audience that Beijing's promise of Hong Kong's smooth transition to Chinese rule was being borne out.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/APEC-HONGKONG.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:22
6pak U>() ID#335190: - November 22, 1997
Clinton says Asia must act against crisis
DENVER ( Reuters ) - President Clinton Saturday urged Asian leaders to act aggressively against a spreading economic crisis and said the turmoil in the region was a top priority of a Pacific Rim summit in Vancouver. If the leaders act aggressively to promote financial stability, and to keep opening the markets at the same time, Asia's future growth prospects and therefore America's are stronger, Clinton said.
He was speaking during a stop in Denver on his way to a summit of the 18-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) forum. APEC ministers are already meeting in Vancouver and their leaders will hold a summit Monday and Tuesday.
One of our top priorities there ( in Vancouver ) will be strengthening and stabilizing Asia's financial markets, so that their economies and ours stay on the right track, he said.
Each country must take responsibility for putting sound economic policies in place, including open and reliable economic information and solid financial ... regulation to bolster investor confidence, Clinton added.
Second, the international community must be prepared to help countries that are taking the right measures themselves, with the International Monetary Fund playing the central role.
Clinton said the health of Asian economies was crucial to U.S. prosperity. Asia buys one-third of U.S. exports.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/APEC-CLINTON.html - Date: Sun Nov 23 1997 00:15
6pak U>() ID#335190: - November 22, 1997
Impact of Asia crisis not clear - U.S. Commerce chief
VANCOUVER ( Reuters ) - U.S. Commerce Secretary William Daley said Saturday it was too soon to measure the impactof Asia's financial crisis on the U.S. economy.
Daley, who met with U.S. business leaders holding a conference on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference forum, said he could not give them any predictions of what the crisis in Asia would mean for U.S. economic growth. We aren't giving them any sort of projections at this point because it is all too fluid frankly, Daley told reporters after a meeting of APEC ministers. We would be doing a lot of guessing at this point.
He declined to comment on what Asian currency devaluations might mean for U.S. businesses but noted that in the past some, particularly the U.S. automobile industry, had complained about the dollar's strength.
Daley said a widening of the U.S. trade deficit, which many economists expect next year, is a concern. He noted that the increase in the U.S. trade deficit was due in part to the strength of the U.S. economy.
When you just zero in on the trade deficit numbers, we don't think that gives a healthy view of the economy, he said.
