- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 01:36
Organ @ Concrete Jungle>(@ Concrete Jungle): - RJ, my I.Q. goes up a few notches whenever I read your eloquent prose. Thanks for putting in the effort -- I always appreciate it.
- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 01:35
RJ ..... Earl .....>(..... Earl .....): -
When the next 200 or 100 or any ton sale is announced, gold will fall. Count on it I have not budged one bit on my belief that gold will make new lows, and soon.
- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 01:21
RJ ..... ! .....>(..... ! .....): - Regarding the recent discourse on Kitco civility, or lack thereof:
I may be counted among those who wanted to hear the last of Hep Cat. It was becoming impossible to accomplish anything here with his petulant whining and petty insults. The current discussion about LGB is fascinating, a few thoughts:
I believe I will find myself in good company here with those who mistrust the government. I am also an ardent supporter of the right to bear arms as this is the final true protection against tyranny. I am highly suspicious of granting any new powers to government and am always among the first to warn against incrementalism. A perfect if benign example of this is the seatbelt law in California.
About five or six years ago, California passed a mandatory seatbelt law. There has always been resistance to such a law by those that think neither morality, compassion, or common sense should, or could, be legislated. The supporters of this bill knew they had a tough fight ahead, so they pulled a sneaky trick that is becoming increasingly commonplace, mostly due to its incredible success. The theory behind this tactic is to push through this type of legislation in increments. The seatbelt law supporters inserted a caveat in the law that said a driver could not be pulled over and cited based on the fact that he was not wearing a seatbelt. The motorist would have to be pulled over for another violation such as speeding before the cop could also cite you for failure to wear a seatbelt. This law is OK, they said, you will only be cited if you are already breaking the law.
I was the only person I knew who did not buy this load of crap. I told anyone who would stand still long enough to listen, that once the seatbelt law was passed, within a couple years, the other violation caveat would be removed and police would be able to pull over anyone they witnessed driving unbuckled. My words were prophetic and as of Jan 1, 1996, the non-wearing of a seatbelt was a stoppable offense.
Like I said this is a benign example, but look at some other issues and you will witness the same tactics being used. The most obvious use of this legislative philosophy is the area of gun control. The gun banners have made no secret of the fact that there final goal is to push for the banning of all guns. They are simply doing it a piece at a time. First there was the ban against Saturday Night Specials'. Which had the distinction of being, for the most part, poorly made and inexpensive. The next piece of the puzzle was to require a waiting period. Next, the banning of several different makes of assault weapons which are no different than many other legal guns except for the plastic parts. Because a gun resembled some military weapons, it was deemed an assault weapon. This truly became ludicrous when many guns with superior firepower were legal, while many of these inferior models were banned.
Enough about guns, for particulars ask Gunrunner, I'm sure he can inform far better than I. The point of the matter - which again seems to have taken me quite awhile to get to - can be summed up with the whole give 'em an inch, and they'll take a mile thing. And yes, this does have relevance here.
Some things are considered sacred to our society, free speech chief among them. In this day of political correctness, it seems as if all forms of offensive speech are on the chopping block. Especially anything dealing with racial stereotypes. People are loosing their jobs and having their lives ruined because they said something the upset another group. We've all seen the many examples of this so I will not belabor, but one can see many examples of our sacred spirit of free speech being held hostage to the fanatics who would have all people only say nice and fuzzy thing to each other. Where in the constitution does is guarantee the right to not be offended? If someone is an asshole, let 'em be one, don't put him in jail, or take his money, or close his business, or take his job, because he is a jerk.
When Hep Cat was banned from this site, a precedent was set. When LGB started to get on people nerves, the call, thankfully from a select few, was to ban the guy. Hell, why not, we did it to Hep Cat, it should be OK to do it to this guy. I find this attitude despicable and have lost permanent respect for those who jumped on this bandwagon. These are dangerous people, they are not content to live there own life, they want to control ours, and to risk repeating myself, I would like to hold forth my former response to these meddlesome folk: Screw you all!! I will not subscribe to your ideas of the way things should be. I have my own ideas, thanks. By the way, I wrote screw, but my feelings on this matter are a bit more intense and the word I was thinking, has no place here.
These same folks seemed to be pleading for a squelch function, so they will not have to wade through writings that displease them. This seems to me to be the true test of their intelligence. The three famous monkeys come to mind. These charlatans have no problem speaking their evil, but they refuse to see or hear it. By locking out other opinions, they limit their own store of information from which they base their opinions. These people will be making decisions without the benefit of all the information available, they simply refuse to look a some it. I would love to sit down to a game of poker with these guys, I would clean their clocks.
Those of you who want this squelch function, have it, use it, enjoy it. I have no respect for those that would shut out the world. Any opinions you might hold are ill informed at best. So…. To hell with you all.
Those of you who follow my posts here, have seen silliness, information, strategies, and occasional snippiness. I apologize for none of it. Sometimes the only appropriate response is to let a person know EXACTLY how you feel. For those that will argue this, think about an hour long sit down meeting with Bill Clinton. Would any of you pass up the change to spill the rancor that has built up over the years?
When people make wild, irresponsible projections month after month and are proven wrong again and again, who then say yeah, but and follow up with lame excuses and new projections, it gets to irk me after awhile. When I have seen enough, I will sometimes call them to task, I may even insult them.............with the truth.
I am beginning to develop a dislike for LGB, I find his attempts at humor, and his insulting style juvenile. He thinks he is mighty clever, but he is far outmatched by many here. I will continue to read what he has to say, although most of his investment strategies are pedestrian at best. This is a guy that gets most of his PM info from coin magazines. I suspect his enormous gains have been vastly overstated. This guy would not last long in the real world.
I will always try to keep to the higher roads and mix my information with humor. I will occasionally become uncivil, as is sometimes my nature when patience has run its course. If any of you don't like it, squelch me all to hell, it will be your loss. I trade metals all day, its all I do, squelch the stuff you don't like, and you miss the stuff that you might need, and you deserve what you get.
The sanctimonious few who would try to control the rest of us will always end up with a slightly shorter stick than ours, and we know their measure well. For the rest of you that would like to live in some Rockwellian world of your own construct, you will continue to excel in your mediocrity.
By the way, all the platinum I bought for my clients in the last two weeks is in profits. I wrote it here first, anybody who bought when I did, made money. This is how you measure what is worthwhile in an investment; how much $ did you make. Insults and petty bothers pale beside this goal. Not all of my clients like me, but they sure buy when I tell 'em to buy, and sell when I tell 'em to sell, because I make them money. When that stops, they will go away, regardless of how civil I might try to be……………….
- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 00:56
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - D.A., LGB, et al.
Here is a re-copy of a 'kitco-post' of mine, from 8/23/97: :
Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 22:58
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) :
what do you think of the kondrateiff model of 52 years
i think this number holds a subtley powerful 'vibration & essence'
( forgive my woo-woo spiritual words/tinges; perhaps i've been in
so. cal. too long )
The Myan ( civilazation's ) calendars of 'some time ago', emphasized the number 52, repeatedly ..... ( -pun intended ) .
Our planet earth, takes 52 weeks to get back to where
it started from.
If we take 13 years times 4 we get ( = ) 52.
If we divide the world of economies, finance & industry,
commodities, food/grains, money/currencies, energy, and civilization, into 4 seasons; then earlier in our century
the following model of time-frames, might offer us some clues:
economic winter: 1929 to 1942
economic spring: 1942 to 1955
economic summer: 1955 to 1968
economic autumn: 1968 to 1981
economic winter: 1981 to 1994
economic spring: 1994 to 2007 ...... oops ! -
- That blows that whole theory, and model, all to hell !
or does it ?
That Kondrateiff rhythm of '52' never leaves me ....
We are living in an ( imperfect ) world ruled by rubber-bands ..
( so to speak ) ;
there is always the accordian effect ... of give & take, for every
ideal, economic-cycle-model, in all 'cycles' research ....
Perhaps, we've been indulged ( -for a couple decades ) ...a long,
protracted, credit-whoring, debt-grovelling indian-summer ...
-------------------------------------------
The winter storms are coming
i see them on the horizon
i smell them in my nostrils
i feel them
crawling in
from the beach
everywhere
all over our skin
winter..too long postponed
wrecks a vengence
- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 00:29
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - D.A. ( 00:04 ) : You beat me to that idea. I agree, with you, that the 'reported', imminent, 200T gold sale will turn out to be a non-event with little, in any, effect on the price of gold. That straw man has been used too many times. It is tattered, torn and need of replacement.
If that scenario proves true, it may also be an additional signal that mellow yellow has a bounce in its near term future. - Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 00:28
D.A. never.too.early.to.plan.ahead>(never.too.early.to.plan.ahead): - http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/health/091297/health2_28626_noframes.html
Time to stock up on Nov 98 beans et al. - Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 00:16
D.A. dreams.of.the.subcontinent>(dreams.of.the.subcontinent): - All:
Anyone out there know if India has ever minted a silver commemorative coin? Any chance of a 1 oz. Mother Thereasa?
Lets see. 1 oz. * 1.2 billion people .... That's 2 or 3 three times the amount of silver in the world.
- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 00:07
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - ACW: Price movements in gold and the gold stocks seem to indicate that the big gold sale you mentioned has already taken place. The article in the FT is ambiguous about the timing of the gold sale. Relatively speaking, with all the dumping, the price of gold has held nicely. What does it mean when bad news doesn't much effect a market?
- Date: Sat Sep 13 1997 00:04
D.A. a.few.words.on.gold>(a.few.words.on.gold): - All:
The story out about new central bank selling is a good one. Since the last time we got one of these the price of gold subseqently plunged, the expectation will be for more of the same. The strength in the market of late argues against a plunge, regardless of the news. It is likely that this news will turn out to be a non event. If this is the case then it will be siezed upon as a positive, with the old 'ignoring of bad news line' getting some play. It may even embolden a few new longs.
A key thing to remember about the last plunge after the Aussie anouncement is that it never really happened. Yes, the price went down sharply, but it was not at all due to the announcement. The selloff came at the very end of the day on the Comex, many, many hours after the announcement. The real reaction to the announcement was mildly positive. The bear raid at market on close had nothing to do with the news and was just a fund taking a well timed shot. That the press tied the two events together, well, that's just the way it is with financial reporting.
Another feature of the recent environment is the collapsing volatility. Over the last 50 trading days the closing range is somewhere around $12. The significance of this decline in volatility is that any subsequent breakout will be may well be large. The system players ( ourselves included ) generally use local historic volatility as a proxy for risk. What this means is that on a breakout from these levels funds can be expected to take large positions because the measured risk is small. Of course if we break down, the same will be true. However, with a great many funds already short, a new downward thrust will have a hard time recruiting too many new players. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 23:53
Mama Mia Hashimoto>(Hashimoto): -
hey Hashi Guy, how coma da Rubin no letta you buyya da gold? Yu Chickena him? - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 23:47
lurker @Gold Sale>(@Gold Sale): - Why do they always report it as a large gold sale? How about 200T gold purchased from Central Bank. ( :+^ )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 23:42
Jack THEY NEVER REPORT THE PERCENTAGE OF THESE GOLD SALES BETWEEN CENTRAL BANKS......THAT IS UNTIL YEARS AFTER THE GOLD PRICE GETS HAMMERED>(THEY NEVER REPORT THE PERCENTAGE OF THESE GOLD SALES BETWEEN CENTRAL BANKS......THAT IS UNTIL YEARS AFTER THE GOLD PRICE GETS HAMMERED): -
ACW: Hopefully JAPAN bought a good portion of the reported 220 tonne and will buy all of the possible 200 tonne. All JAPAN has to do is sell $2.1 billion of US Treasuries, a mere pitance of their holdings.
Do you think Rubin will let them?
God a second rate company will pay that much to buy another second rate company. NOW THAT IS EXCESSIVE PAPER, EITHER DOLLARS OR SHARE BUYOUTS. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 23:33
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Ted, Ted: What am I gonna' do? West Lafayette versus county rival Harrison. Luke makes 5 yard touchdown run. WL leads 7-0. Harrison scores, misses PAT, 7-6. Toward the end of the Have, Luke leads a long drive, ending with a touchdown pass with seconds remaining. WL leads at halftime 14-6. Things go badly in 2nd half. Harrison takes the lead at 18-17. With 1:20 to go in the game, WL gains possession. Luke leads another drive completing nearly all of his passes. WL is down to the 10 yard line with 35 seconds remaing. Bone-head WL coach, Ernie Beck, lets time run down, puts in the field-goal kicking team with a sophomore kicker left to win the game for us. Kicker misses the field-goal -- wide 2 yards. I am sure Coach Beck is LGB. I'm ready to strangle him.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 23:30
D.A. as.the.script.goes>(as.the.script.goes): - Kahunna:
What you are describing is a classic late cycle expansion. The general cycle of the economy starting from a recessionary environment goes something like this. First, money gets real cheap. Central bank policy is very, very loose with real interest rates near or below 0. This was the case back in the early 90's. With all this liquidity about, the next thing that happens is the bond market rallies. Then the economy starts moving as people begin to invest this easy money into new ventures. As the economy heats up the fed is obliged to take the punch bowl away so that things don't get out of hand. The last time this occured was 1994 when the Fed raised short term rates 300 basis points. This tightening of liquidity puts the brakes on economic growth. As the economy slows down the Fed begins taking its foot off the brakes and the cycle starts up again. The goal of the Fed is to tap both the accelerator and the brakes just enough to smooth out the bumps in the road due to exogenous impacts such as war, political excess, etc. In 1994 their preemptive moves against inflation cooled things down just the right amount as they engineered a 'smooth landing', the pinnacle of Fed accomplishment. It appears that this go round, for political reasons or whatever, they are unwilling to remove the stimulus from the economy. Their rate hike in the begining of the year was met with great political heat. Politicians do not like rate hikes, regardless of whether they are warranted or not. Rate hikes mean slowdowns, job losses and the potential for the biggest disaster of all, losing the next election.
Two things in this cycle seem to stand out with regards to the Fed's inability to raise rates. First, the world is much more interconnected on a monetary and trade basis than it has ever been. Because of this, when the Fed tightens, it does much more than just effect our own economy. With the economies of Japan and until recently core Europe in the doldrums, a tightening here would be very unwelcome by our trading partners. Since central bankers like to eat in the same restaurants, the tension at dinner parties would be unbearable. In some respects it appears as if global monetary policy is being set to take care of the weakest growth link, with the thought being that the strongly growing economies are better able to suffer a bit of inflation rather than have the weak economies go down the tubes.
The second feature of this expansion that appears to be having a large effect is the fixation on the government inflation statistics. Throughout the industrialized world, these numbers have become the some of the most watched statistics of the times. These numbers are gathered and reported not by the central banks but by the other branches of government whose goal it is to keep the party going forever without discretion so that they may keep themselves off the unemployment line.
The key thing about the inflation numbers from a political standpoint are that they allow the politicians to do the 'responsible' thing without putting their necks on the line. Because the numbers are used to compute both tax levels and benefit levels, by jiggering the numbers lower, taxes can be raised and spending can be decreased without anyone having to take the political flack. The enormous appeal of this fix, has created so much political momentum that committees are created to justify the arbitrary resetting of these benchmarks lower, even in the face of extremely strong evidence that the proposed recalculations are completely bogus.
The secondary effect of marking down the inflation numbers is that it gives ammunition to the politicians in their battle with the Fed. If the rejiggered numbers do not rise then there can be no inflation. If there is no inflation then the Fed can not justify raising interest rates to cool down the economy. What we are left with is the 'nirvana' of a rapidly growing economy and no inflation. Throw in a few asset sales to keep some of the better known commodities ( gold ) in check. And everything is peachy keen.
I think that Greenspan and Co. has been maneuvered into a political corner. By publicly coming out on the side of the 'CPI is overstated' coin they are in no position to raise rates until that indicator is smoking. By their own admission the CPI may well be overstated by 1%. Thus we may need a reading of 4% ( unjiggered ) before they can make their case to raise rates without getting killed. The upshot of all this is that the expansion we are currently in will go much farther than appropriate, real inflation will get into the pipeline and a boom cycle is being created. When the cycle finally is popped, the otherside of the mountain will look very steep indeed.
The biggest risk to the financial markets is strong inflationary growth. Sooner or later the bond market will figure out what is going on even if the central banks buy up all of each others debt. If the game is allowed to get totally out of hand then commodity prices will rise to extremes. Especially those for which there are no government stockpiles.
Its hard to tell just what inning the game is in, but it appears pretty late. With core European growth clipping along at a strong rate another large part of the industrialized world is contributing. I think it is quite possible that we will see a blowout in commodity prices ( dollar terms ) over the next six months or so, with a concomittant fall in bonds. This will be the death knell for the equities markets. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:51
Speed @home>(@home): - Kahunna Grande: Your experience is similar to mine. Big raises, lotsa competition by employers for analysts, technical folks and programmers, even welders are in demand here in Houston. Energy Services companies are doing well. If that post about another big CB gold sale is spot on, then gold is going to take another big hit, which will mask the inflation caused by growth in M2 and M3. Unfortunately, Ms. Albright failed to achieve anything with Arafat and Netanyahu, so all bets are clouded by a possible war in the middle east. El Niño is already affecting stuff. Looks to this Texan like the best bet is OIL. Gold takes it on the chin until '98, imho of course.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:49
Skylark @>(@): - ACW: Thanks for the post, but the numbers do not add or I am missing something. The OZ sale of 167t took place during the first half, as I understand it, with the announcement in July. If this is deducted from the 220 tons of gold believed by GMS to be sold by CBs, this leaves only 50t unaccounted for. If not, the question remains is whether these 220t have sold and placed in the market during the first half, and only an announcement of the sale remains, or whether gold is still being distributed into the market as a result of such sale. At times, these press releases are confusing at best.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:26
Kahunna Grande PBTexas>(PBTexas): - Nasty ole stock market crashed up again. Acording to WSJ people are changing jobs and letting job loyalty go where it needs to be. Demand for skilled and professional employees is way up. As recently as eighteen months ago welders were getting ten dollars an hour. Same job is now paying fifteen and a lot of machinest and welder jobs are goin begging. From communications on both coast both union and non union it is the same. Wal Marts and Targets are full and you have to fight people off with a stick at Home Depot and Lowes. These are not high scale stores. The people buying here are middle class blue and white collar workers Sure a lot of the money they spend is credit and may be considered funny money but it is purchasing real products. I dont pretend to be a TA investor and when HM drops below 13 I am buying with both hands. But from my humble observations there is too much work going on and the seniment of people in this part of the country is good. This may be a contrarian indicator but I dont think anything will happen to stocks until after Christmas. Unless the North Koreans ramble south or ther is a blow up in the Balkins there is just nothing to drive the stock market down or gold up. People just feel too good!. Am I missing somthing and do the forcasters and observers on the board see somthing? I am open to suggestions but I cant see the market do anything but what it has been doing. comments?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:25
ACW Re: Gold Sale>(Re: Gold Sale): - Lurker: That was the complete story.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:22
lurker ACW -Gold Sale>(ACW -Gold Sale): - URL requires registration so I didn't go in. Was there any additional information that you did not post? It sounds to me as though the sale has already taken place. Let's hope it doesn't hurt too much.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:18
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - World Gold Council's view on the Gold Market
http://www.gold.org/Pages/Home1.htm - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:05
lurker @CNN objectivity>(@CNN objectivity): - It often seemed to me that CNN reports were soft on Bill and Hillary and Democrats in general. If the following excerpt from the Drudge report is correct, I now know why! ( :~ )
Rick Kaplan's ( President of CNN ) personal request for White House help immediately became the talk in media circles. Kaplan has had a long-standing friendship with Bill and Hillary Clinton. He has been
an overnight guest in the Lincoln Bedroom, he gave media advice to Clinton during the '92 campaign. This week's issue of US NEWS & WORLD REPORT claims that Kaplan recently told CNN staffers to limit their use of the word scandal in reporting on Clinton's campaign fund-raising woes.
Sorry for going off-topic. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 22:02
ACW Big Gold Sale!!!!!>(Big Gold Sale!!!!!): - From the Financial Times London.
http://www.ft.com
Gold: Further big sale of reserves predicted
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13 1997
By Kenneth Gooding, Mining Correspondent
Another big central bank sale of gold - of about 200 tonnes - will be
announced soon, a market analyst warned yesterday.
The Gold Fields Minerals Services consultancy, widely believed to have
the best contacts and a deep understanding of the market, suggested that
the sale, equivalent to 6.43m ounces of gold, had been agreed earlier this year, probably by a European central bank.
The market is still coping with the blow delivered in July when the
Australian central bank announced the sale of 167 tonnes, or 5.4m ounces,
from its reserves. The price of gold fell to its lowest level for 12 years after Australia's announcement, reaching $317.30 an ounce. The price has not regained much ground since and yesterday's price was set in London at $323.35 an ounce.
Stewart Murray, chief executive of GFMS, suggested that a central bank
in Europe had been selling steadily over a period of weeks, accounting for the fact that the gold price has remained near its 12-year low even though demand for the precious metal has been at record levels.
The threat that central banks would sell some of their gold reserves has been overshadowing the market for some time. In recent years, the
Belgian, Canadian and Dutch central banks have sold gold. The Netherlands said in January it had sold 300 tonnes, cutting reserves by
more than 20 per cent and the country's fourth disposal since 1989.
GFMS, in its market update yesterday, estimated that in the first half of this year net gold disposals by central banks ( including the 200 tonnes still to be announced ) amounted to 220 tonnes.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 21:53
Skylark @>(@): - KUSTON: You may be right, but according to earlier reports, the first of these stand-still agreements is to soon expire, and once any company makes a bid for BGO, I have been told by BGO any other company would be able to do so under the terms of the agreements. Unfortunately, unless one has all the facts, one cannot make a rationale decision and a course of action without such facts is merely speculation. But there is a reason for the low price of the stock and the street is usually right.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 21:45
Bill Buckler @potential emergency monitoring>(@potential emergency monitoring): - Yahoo had an item from Reuters on Sept 11 about Mr Rubin's Presidential working group that monitors market volatilty. It seems, according to the story, that Mr Rubin was pleased that the federal agencies were coordinating their efforts well to deal with potential emergencies.
Now, I'm just a hick from Down Under, but that reads to me like the federal agencies are already hard at work dealing with such emergencies. In the above context, volatility means falling markets, does it not?
The only market that isn't doing anything at all right now is the $US Gold price. Of course, a falling Gold price would hardly be looked upon as an emergency.
Personally, I'm looking forward to the G-7, IMF, World Bank meeting in Hong Kong next week when everyone gets together to compare their potential emergencies.
It should be quite a show.
New Gold commentary and foreign currency Gold charts up at
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 21:36
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com): - Skylark - BGO will be taken over. I don't expect it to happen until spring
at the earliest. I taked to an industry insider who told me all the
big boys signed 12 or 18 month hands off contracts while they were
doing the DD. Once the 12/18 months are over the bidding will start.
He warned me against buying in this year - the stock is to easily
manipulated. Come '98 I'm going in. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 21:31
snoop snoop@cswnet.com>(snoop@cswnet.com): - @ Stradmaster: Try this as a tongue-in-cheek icon! ( :+^} We use it a lot on world lynx in little rock. Saves lotsa explanations!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 21:28
Skylark The BGO Disappointment.>(The BGO Disappointment.): - BOB: Thanks for the info on BGO. I thought about the royalty as being a reason for a decline, but I have not noticed any other Chilean miner being as adversely affected. The comment on difficulty of processing the sulfur, copper, gold extraction mix would seem to make more sense - but I wonder how much this been known on the street and for how long. And ABX is launching a new mine in the Indio trend which indicates the problem is local. Moreover, BGO started its decline well before the scoping study was published. Thus, it is difficult to attribute a reason for the decline with an event that may have triggered it. Perhaps it is cumulative of a number of events, including short selling by the debenture holders, a band-wagon affect on investors who are Bre-x skittish, the failure to address the difference between the scoping study resource and that disclosed earlier, and the remarkable silence by the company in face of the decline. My own guess is that since the decline started early, the street quickly recognized that the money to purchase and develop the mine in today's market is simply too expensive and it is obvious BGO does not have the managerial infrastructure nor financial capabililty to do it alone. As often commented, an exploration company is in a world of hurt once it discovers a find of this magnitude. In any event, there is certainly a difference between what management and the street apparently see as to the value of CC. You may find the recent comments at the SI site interesting in this regard. One posted a summary of the recent SH meeting in which he reported that Clive mentioned that none of the companies doing DD on the prospect have made any proposals, and others some analysts' comments. You yourself even have notoriety.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 21:04
Strad Master Strad1@idt.ndt>(Strad1@idt.ndt): - MIKE SHELLER: Thank you for the kind words. No, I don't know the Maestro you mention but know of the NY Pro Arte Orchestra. Would love to meet him someday. E-mail me and perhaps we can chat about such other matters.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:55
LGB Gold,Silver,Platinum>(Gold,Silver,Platinum): - The whites continued strength in the face of Gold's weakness today, indicates that industrial and commercial demand, coupled with supply concerns for Platinum and building fundamentals for silver, have built a solid base for the white's. This fundamental base indicates that the white's could make strong upward moves, whether or not other financial markets decline or improve while Gold may continue to languish in a narrow range. Silver/Platinum lease rates have climbed substantially within the past week.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:47
aurator sshhhh>(sshhhh): - kiwi
OK no more secrets. This is the worst darn country in de world. Went looking for shield sites, no luck.Let me know if you find one.
Wazz your pick cuz? - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:46
LGB BE Mining (Gold)>(BE Mining (Gold)): - Benguet Mining had several press releases today, attributing losses in this quarter primarily to a major landslide in the Dizon mine. BE was unchanged today at 5/16. Report follows;
Friday September 12 6:26 PM EDT
Company Press Release
Source: Benguet Corporation
Benguet Corporation Announces Second Quarter 1997 Results
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, Sept. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Benguet Corporation ( NYSE:BE ) today announced
consolidated net earnings for second quarter 1997 amounted to a loss of P166,400,000 ( US$6,307,000 ) or
P1.46 ( US$0.055 ) per share. This compared to a loss of P57,100,000 ( US$2,178,000 ) or P0.50 ( US$0.019 )
per share in second quarter 1996.
The Company's consolidated net earnings for the first six-month period of this year amounted to a loss of
P328,900,000 ( US$12,467,000 ) or P2.88 ( US$0.109 ) per share, compared with a loss of P73,100,000
( US$2,790,000 ) or P0.64 ( US$0.024 ) per share for the same period in 1996.
Operating revenue for the second quarter amounted to P515,700,000 ( US$19,547,000 ) , down from
P732,200,000 ( US$27,944,000 ) reported for second quarter 1996. For the first six-month period of this year,
operating revenue amounted to P1,042,200,000 ( US$39,502,000 ) compared with P1,516,100,000
( US$57,861,000 ) for the same period in 1996.
Dennis Belmonte, President and CEO of Benguet, said, ``The losses seen by Benguet for this period are due to a
major landslide at the Dizon mine that occurred midway through the second quarter and that destabilized all
quadrants of the open pit walls. Additionally, gold prices have continued to decline. We are confident that these
setbacks are temporary, and have already begun looking into different options that would return Benguet to
profitability.''
Mining Operations
Earnings from the Dizon Copper-Gold Operation amounted to a loss of P14,200,000 ( US$538,000 ) for the
second quarter compared with a net income of P22,300,000 for the same quarter in 1996. The loss can be
attributed to continuous heavy rains from a typhoon that caused a massive slide at the northwest wall of the mine
and destroyed the intake into the drain tunnel. The subsequent flooding of the pit, deprived the operation of
approximately 2.56 million tonnes of ore, limiting production to 5,180,000 pounds of copper and 16,316 ounces
of gold. For the first six-month period of this year, earnings from the mine amounted to a loss of P62,900,000
( US$2,383,000 ) as opposed to net income of P54,000,000 seen in the same period in 1996.
Initial studies have uncovered several options available to continue operation of the Dizon mine. Benguet may
rehabilitate the pit and develop the Pua Satellite Orebody ( PSO ) . However, this would require an additional capital
investment of P241 million in order to raise the tallings dam and unload the destabilized west wall. Moreover,
operations would have to be suspended for ten months starting August 1997. In light of this, Benguet has formally
offered its operating rights to the claimowner, the Dizon Copper Silver Mines, Inc. ( DCSMI ) , and negotiations for
the takeover by DCSMI as operator of the Dizon mine are underway.
Net losses from the Benguet Antamok Gold Operation increased to P103,700,000 ( US$3,930,000 ) for second
quarter 1997 from P60,300,000 reported for the same period last year. For the first six-month period of this year,
net losses amounted to P176,500,000 ( US$6,689,000 ) compared with P93,000,000 for the first half of 1996.
The higher losses seen this year include charges for pit rehabilitation work required under the mine's environmental
compliance certificate. Additionally, unfavorable gold prices continue to trouble the Antamok mine: the average
price for this quarter declined further to US$341 per ounce from US$389 per ounce in 1996. Gold production
output this quarter was also lower at 7,797 ounces in 1997 down from 14,852 ounces in 1996.
Earnings from the Masinloc Chromite Operation were marginal in the second quarter of this year and amounted to
P2,900,000 ( US$109,000 ) compared with earnings of P3,600,000 for the same quarter in 1996. Shipment
volume this quarter also fell to 17,324 tonnes compared with the 19,495 tonnes shipped in 1996. For the first
six-month period in 1997, earnings from the Masinloc mine amounted to P2,500,000 ( US$93,000 ) in 1997
compared with earnings of P5,900,000 in the first half of 1996.
The Benguet Gold Operation remains suspended under caretakership status. Benguet is considering several offers
for joint venture operation or outright purchase of the mine or portions thereof, which would enable the Company
to pursue real estate development of the area. Payment from Base Metals Minerals Resources Corporation
( BMMR ) for Benguet's mining rights in the Paracale Gold Operation is still forthcoming from BMMR. Under
BMMR's option agreement with Benguet, the mining rights to the Paracale properties must be fully paid for by
September 30, 1999.
Trading Activity
Trading activity this quarter resulted in a loss of P5,900,000 ( US$224,000 ) for the period and P9,800,000
( US$373,000 ) for the first six months in 1997, compared with net earnings of P4,200,000 and P2,900,000,
respectively, in 1996. Price differentials between copper option and forward contracts for six million pounds of
copper were the primary reason for the losses seen this year. Benguet currently has forward contracts and call
options for six million pounds of copper set at the floor price of US$0.99 per pound and a strike price of US$1.16
per pound on the calls covering monthly calculation periods up to the end of 1997. The Company also has dollar
forward contracts under which Benguet can sell dollars forward at a fixed peso-to-dollar exchange rate for
delivery at various dates up to May 1998.
Subsidiaries and Affiliate Companies
Benguet Management Corporation ( BMC ) , a 100% owned subsidiary, and its subsidiaries reported a
consolidated net loss of P11,240,000 ( US$426,000 ) for the second quarter of 1997, an improvement on the net
loss of P16,400,000 seen in 1996. For the first half of 1997, BMC reported a consolidated net loss of
P11,200,000 ( US$424,000 ) , significantly lower than the net loss of P35,000,000 for the same period in 1996. In
light of the present depression in the Philippine mining industry, the foundry division of BMC underwent manpower
restructuring during the second quarter. This restructuring has made its operations more competitive in response to
the reduced demand for castings.
Benguet Corp. International Limited ( BIL ) Benguet's Hong Kong-based, 100% owned subsidiary for international
operations, reported net earnings for the second quarter of P400,000 ( US$16,000 ) in 1997, equal to net earnings
in 1996. For the first half of 1997, net earnings amounted to P1,100,000 ( US$42,000 ) , considerably higher than
net earnings of P475,000 reported for the same period in 1996. A 100% owned subsidiary of BIL, Benguet Corp.
U.S.A., holds mineral properties in Royston Hills, Nevada which are currently for sale.
Petrofields Exploration & Development Co., Inc. ( Petrofields ) , a 20% owned affiliate company, and its subsidiary
reported a consolidated net loss of P900,000 ( US$35,000 ) for the second quarter compared with net earnings of
P1,200,000 for the same quarter in 1996. For the first six-month period of 1997, Petrofields' consolidated net loss
amounted to P1,400,000 ( US$54,000 ) compared with net earnings of P3,200,000 for the same period in 1996.
Petrofields has a 5% participating interest in the West Linapacan oil operation in Palawan province. It also has
41.5% and 14.525% participating interests in oil exploration and development projects in Equata and Etame,
Gabon, West Africa, respectively. Additionally, Petrofields is pursuing other projects focused on real property
development.
Kingking Copper-Gold Project
Results of the Phase 1 confirmatory drilling work by Echo Bay Mines, Ltd. ( Echo Bay ) , TVI Pacific, Inc. ( TVI ) ,
and Kingking Mines, Inc. ( KMI ) on the Kingking Copper-Gold Project at Davao del Norte in Southern
Philippines show the geologic resource of the project at more than one ( 1 ) billion tonnes grading 0.31% total
copper and 0.41 grams of gold per tonne at a cut-off grade of 0.20% T-Cu. The drilling work was conducted
pursuant to the terms of the option agreement between Echo Bay/TVI/KMI and Benguet. Echo Bay/TVI/KMI has
completed its Level 1 engineering feasibility study and has decided to look for third party investors. Echo Bay has
recently signified its intention to renegotiate the terms of its present option agreement with Benguet.
Outlook
In the short term, Benguet will be affected by the suspension of operations at the Dizon mine which will need time
and significant investment to reactivate. As has been discussed, the Company is presently exploring the possibility
of DCSMI's taking over Benguet's operating rights for the mine.
With respect to the Company's other operations, Mr. Belmonte said, ``Benguet's prospects for the possible
development of its landholdings into real estate projects continue to be favorable. It is likely that Benguet will enter
into a water treatment and supply venture by utilizing the existing Benguet Antamok open pit as a reservoir and
source of potable water for Baguio City which is adjacent to Benguet's gold mines. Another potential is the
production of aggregates by the Masinloc Chromite Operation to fulfill local and foreign demand. Initial studies
show these ventures could well be Benguet's major income earners in the not so distant future.''
Benguet Corporation is the Philippines' oldest mining company. Its principal products are gold, copper
concentrates and chromite.
BENGUET CORPORATION and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Results of Operations in Thousands ( Except Per Share Data )
( Unaudited )
THREE MONTHS ENDED SIX MONTHS ENDED
JUNE 30 JUNE 30
PHILIPPINE PESOS 1997 1996 1997 1996
Operating Revenue P 515,700 P 732,200 P 1,042,200 P 1,516,100
Operating Profit
( Loss ) ( 123,200 ) ( 28,900 ) ( 249,300 ) 7,700
Other Income
( Expenses ) ( 43,200 ) ( 28,200 ) ( 79,600 ) ( 80,800 )
Net
Net Income
( Loss ) ( 1 ) P ( 166,400 ) P ( 57,100 ) P ( 328,900 ) P ( 73,100 )
Earnings ( Loss )
Per Share ( 2 ) P ( 1.46 ) P ( 0.50 ) P ( 2.88 ) P ( 0.64 )
US DOLLARS ( 3 )
Operating Revenue $ 19,547 $ 27,944 $ 39,502 $ 57,861
Operating Profit
( Loss ) ( 4,669 ) ( 1,102 ) ( 9,450 ) 296
Other Income
( Expenses ) - Net ( 1,637 ) ( 1,076 ) ( 3,017 ) ( 3,086 )
Net Income ( Loss ) ( 1 ) $ ( 6,307 ) $ ( 2,178 ) $ ( 12,467 ) $ ( 2,790 )
Earnings ( Loss )
Per Share ( b ) $ ( 0.055 ) $ ( 0.019 ) $ ( 0.109 ) $ ( 0.024 )
1 ) Under Philippine generally accepted accounting principles, unrealized foreign exchange losses are deferred and
amortized to coincide with the actual repayment of outstanding foreign currency obligations, while pension costs
are actuarially computed and are funded as accrued. The effect of these methods is to increase net loss by
P1,500,000 ( US$56,000 ) for the second quarter and P2,500,000 ( US$95,000 ) for the first six months in 1997;
and P1,800,000 ( US$71,000 ) and P4,400,000 ( US$167,000 ) for the same period in 1996.
2 ) Earnings per share are based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding of 114,110,662
in 1997 and 1996.
3 ) Benguet is a Philippine corporation and its books of accounts are kept in Philippine pesos. US dollar figures are
shown purely for convenience and were computed based on the Interbank guiding rate at June 30 of P26.384 to
US$1.00 in 1997 ( P26.203 to US$1.00 in 1996 ) .
SOURCE: Benguet Corporation
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:39
Yellow Jacket What a dope!>(What a dope!): - Putting down goldbugs like that!!! Louis Rukeyser must be taking lessons from LGB. Hmmm...Clark Kent...Superman...LGB...Louis Rukeyser? Naaaaaaah!!!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:37
LGB Eldorado Gold Co.>(Eldorado Gold Co.): - Latest press release from El Dorado Gold Co on Kaymuz gold project in Turkey,follows;
ompany Press Release
Eldorado Gold Turkey Update
Kaymaz Gold Project
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Sept. 12, 1997-- Eldorado Gold Corp. ( TSE,
VSE ELD., TSE, VSE ELD.WT. ) -- Eldorado Gold Corporation ( TSE, VSE: ``ELD'' ) announces that work
continues toward a positive resolution on permitting of the Kaymaz Gold Project which will allow the project to be
approved by the Turkish Government and will allow Eldorado to make a positive production decision.
At the present time, development of the Kaymaz Project is delayed by a law suit initiated by an environmental
group against the Turkish Ministry of Environment challenging the previously approved environmental permit. A
joint appeal by Eldorado and the Ministry of Environment has been made to the Turkish Supreme Administrative
Court to uphold the previously approved Environmental Impact Assessment for the Kaymaz Project and the
previously issued permit. Support by the Turkish Government has been positive and cooperative in working
toward the resolution of this sensitive issue.
The Kaymaz Gold Project, located in central Turkey, contains a gold resource of 1,224,000 tonnes grading 5.57
g/t ( 219,190 ounces ) , which includes a proven and probable reserve of 189,084 ounces.
ON BEHALF OF ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION Richard J. Barclay, Chairman
Eldorado Gold Corporation's shares ( Symbol - ELD ) and warrants ( Symbol - ELD.WT ) trade on the Toronto
Stock Exchange ( ``TSE'' ) and the Vancouver Stock Exchange ( ``VSE'' ) . Neither the TSE, nor the VSE have
approved or disapproved the form or content of this release.
Contact:
Eldorado Gold Corporation
Bob Ferguson, 604/687-4018
604/687-4026 ( FAX )
or
Eldorado Gold Corporation
Reg Advocaat, 604/687-4018
604/687-4026 ( FAX )
e-mail: 73573.2617@compuserve.com
e-mail: info@eldoradogold.com
More news for referenced ticker symbols: ELD., and related industries: mining. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:33
LGB Mutual Fund Inflows>(Mutual Fund Inflows): - Lead story in today's San Jose Mercury news Business section, stated that Mutual fund inflows had dropped to approximately half of what had been invested in July. Possible indicator of jitters in the marketplace, though new highs continue to be made in large multiples of new lows.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:28
nomercy Money Supply (Inflation)>(Money Supply (Inflation)): - ...assisting A. Greenspan vigilance on inflation...
1 ) Levy said recent M2 growth rates are inconsistent with holding nominal GDP growth in the Fed's
preferred range. If real GDP is growing on the order of 3%, a nominal GDP growth rate of 5.5% or
more, implies an increase in inflation ( as measured by the Commerce Department ) from 2% to 2.5%.
He said that would suggest the need for the Fed to tighten credit to slow the growth of money and of
nominal GDP.
2 ) Levy said the Fed is also focusing on the demand side, and although August sales were
relatively modest-looking, the upward revision to July implies a 4% annual growth rate for
consumption in the third quarter
3 ) The growth rate of the money supply may suggest the Fed is providing a lot of liquidity to the
financial system that may be leading to inflation in some categories of financial assets, Camilli said,
adding that other major central banks have also been adding to liquidity in financial markets by
running expansive monetary policies.
http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970912ca/ppi_fv.htm - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - September 29, 1997
The Big Costs of Policy Mistakes
Rob Norton
mericans have it good in a lot of ways, not all of them
immediately obvious. Take economic policy. Looking back
over the last two decades' worth of financial headlines--from
double-digit inflation and the exploding budget deficit to the savings
and loan crisis and the gyrations of the dollar in the 1980s--you might
think U.S. policymakers are incapable of creating anything but chaos.
In fact, the American economy is the very model of stability, and its
problems are minor compared with the financial accidents and policy
blunders that afflict many other nations. A few of these came under
review recently at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City policy
conclave ( which brings together central bankers, finance ministers, and
economists each Labor Day in Jackson Hole, Wyo. ) . This year's
conference, on maintaining financial stability in a global economy,
couldn't have been timelier, coming as it did in the midst of the East
Asian currency crises.
America's most expensive financial crackup in recent decades--the
S&L bailout--wound up costing 2% to 3% of GDP, according to most
estimates. By contrast, the cost of the public sector bailout for this
summer's Thai financial crisis has already reached 10% of Thailand's
GDP. The potential losses from Japan's 1990s banking crisis are
estimated at 10% of Japan's GDP as well. Just to put that number in
perspective, a meltdown that big in the U.S. would cost more than
$750 billion. If you made a list of the worst banking crises relative to a
nation's GDP over the past 15 to 20 years, America's S&L crisis
doesn't even make the top 50, according to Morris Goldstein of the
Institute for International Economics, one of the speakers at Jackson
Hole.
As the table shows, at least 14 countries have lost 10%
or more of their GDP as a result of banking crises, led by
Argentina's incredible 55%-of-GDP loss in the early
1980s. Currency crises can be costly apart from their
impact on the banking systems. In 1992 and 1993, for
example, European nations spent something like $150 billion to $200
billion in a fruitless effort to defend their semi-fixed-rate currency
system.
One benefit from studying these tales of woe is that they quantify just
how costly mistakes in economic policy can be. America's S&L crisis
was caused in part by bad regulation, bad legislation, greed, and
incompetence. But what truly caused it was a macroeconomic policy
mistake: the outbreak of double-digit inflation in the 1970s, which
created the unprecedented interest-rate volatility that in turn ensured
the extinction of the S&Ls.
American policymakers bear an additional burden. The U.S. economy
is so big that even comparatively small mistakes in Washington can
have large adverse consequences for other nations. In the 1980s, for
instance, America's twin deficits distorted capital and trade flows
everywhere. Today if the Fed guesses wrong on inflation and is later
forced to raise interest rates sharply, the ripples will also cause
problems worldwide.
One of the conclusions reached by the economists and government
officials at Jackson Hole is that price stability--the absence of
consistent inflation or deflation--is an important precondition for
economic and financial stability. The U.S. has avoided major financial
accidents during the 1990s in large part because of the sound
monetary policy that's brought the inflation rate down to near 2%.
Knock on wood.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:12
Byron @ Flying The Flag:>(@ Flying The Flag:): - The last ten weeks of the Gold Futures Weekly contract has taken on a narrowing formation. ( A flag, triangle ) . Looks poised for a break-out. See URL http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin70.gif
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:09
nomercy Thailand's financial disaster snowball(getting bigger)>(Thailand's financial disaster snowball(getting bigger)): - Moody's Investors Services senior credit analyst
Nicholas Krasno said eight small Thai commercial
banks were insolvent and up to five might be taken
over by the government.
Permanent Secretary of Finance Supachai
Pitsiwanich said it was impossible that any of the
country's 15 commercial banks would fail. The
government affirmed its blanket guarantee to all
depositors and creditors.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970913004012077&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3508 - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Major bank cited in credit card fraud.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970912/business/stories/creditcard_1.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:03
nomercy Thailand(don't worry be happy)>(Thailand(don't worry be happy)): - 'Don't panic' as tanks
hit streets
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Bangkok
The Army urged Bangkok residents yesterday not
to panic if they see tanks and armed troops outside
their homes next week, stressing that the military
show of force will not be part of a coup.
A senior army official said that while almost 20,000
troops would head towards the capital over the
next week, the movement was no attempt by the
Army to seize power from the strife-torn
Government.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970913021134063&top=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=1415 - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 20:01
Ted @Puetz>(@Puetz): - Puetz: Ya only got FOUR days.......ommmmmmmmmmmmm....off ta watch a movie ( The Arrival ) with the wife....not little woman...right Liz!! Not to late to buy some SIG.....support yer home state!!....Stox CRASHED..up.......
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Rubin comments hurt Japanese yen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/z0000_17.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:57
Ted @ bodyguard>(@ bodyguard): - Tort ( 18:14 ) Yer damn right buddy......me+ Willie are feelin lean+ mean and in no mood ta take no sh!t....from nobody.....STarted off the day mad at Canada Post for not gettin my stock certificates to Fidelity yet ( sent em 9/5 ) ....now Iez glad as the stock ( NES ) I'm sellin went up a tad ( .125 ) and I'll stick with it fer hopefully a further ride up but puttin a stop-loss near todays price as Iez NERVOUS....and want cash! Hi EB..
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:55
Donald @Home>(@Home): - 240,000 Shanghai textile workers laid off.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/y0033_z00_1.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:51
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Investor hot tip! When your own country is on the scrapheap invest in Mongolia.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/11/y0008_y00_1.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:43
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Brazil devalues yet again, ho-hum.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/z0009_64.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:41
nomercy Market Reality>(Market Reality): - ...in other words CB buying...
From Business Week Market Wrap Sept. 12
But with 90 minutes left in the day,
bonds extended gains when buy-stops on the December bond futures were triggered, sending cash 30-year yields back below
the 6.60% level to 6.59% and bolstering bullish confidence in equities. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 23.91 We are still in good shape on the ratio. A false reversal has not materialized and the top is broadening out a bit. The pattern is still positive for gold and negative for stocks. The next good sign to look for is a drop in the ratio to something below 23.22. At that point, or lower, the future purchasing power of gold would be improving even if the dollar price of gold were to be declining. ( Alternative points of view are encouraged )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:33
Roebear @Missingpieces>(@Missingpieces): - Mike Sheller: Sorry I missed that MOGN ( ? ) call, doggone! Irritating when I look at 98% of posts and miss a good one! speaking of which, what did you ( or someone ) do to LGB, he is posting mining stock info!: ) I guess I missed that one and maybe I am glad, just trying to see the silver lining in whatever dark clouds I missed. Keep up the good work!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 19:19
Mike Sheller Catchup Ketchup>(Catchup Ketchup): - YELLOW JACKET: Now I've heard everything. STRADMASTER: You are a true cultured gentleman! Do you know Raffael Adler? ( Conductor, Musical Director of the NY Pro Arte Chamber Orchestra ) I did promotion for his group for many years, a while ago. L STEVE: Your 2 cents are cast in gold. DAVID: You are getting more and more PROFOUND by the miinute!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:58
kiwi aurator>(aurator): - Don't give away too many of our secrets.
Know of any good sites for updates on Auck-Counties shield match today? - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:54
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - GEORGE S. COLE: Your calls on stocks and gold seem to be pretty close at the moment. Your feeling that gold may not need a big event to start the climb back may well be correct but I am concerned that the CBs have their foot on the price, probably thru the use of derivitives as Alan G. has even hinted. What is your thinking on this?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:44
Goldbug23 @Civility>(@Civility): - SteveL: Agree with your comments. The tone of what is said is as important as what is said. We have had some tones that could be improved here from time to time but they seem to disappear in due course.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:39
aurator just horsin' around>(just horsin' around): - Why do New Zealand Horses run so fast?
Because they see what we do to our sheep. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:25
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Lurker, 18:20:: ) NONE.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:24
Lurker breaking news>(breaking news): - Insider trading @ JP Morgan?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:20
Lurker (?): - Globex shows S&P Dec97 @ 925.80, E-Mini Dec97 @ 934.50. Small investors
more bullish than institutional investors? I wonder what impact the E-Mini will have on the market. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:19
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - @ civility, recent previous post by SteveL:
let's hear it, for this point of view!
We can all contribute more heat & smoke, than the truth of the
'fire of truth' .... the smoke-screens of our emotional self-righteousness, are all too easy to indulge in.
The creators of kitco, and the sincere seekers of the truths of the market-places, posting here, seek more than such 'chaff'. But, then, again, without the chaff, there would be no wheat.... - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:14
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day): - The markets just did about the opposite of my prediction for the day. I'm putting the old chrystal ball back in moth balls for a time. I've been almost afraid to post a joke on here given the barbs flying to and fro and the nasty rhetoric, but I have Ted to protect me so don't write mean things to me and spoil my Friday or you will answer to Ted and his bud Willie. The following story will illustrate to the group how I manage to keep from investing in options when the craving is most acute.
On a hot, dusty day a cowboy rode into a small frontier town. After
dismounting, he walked behind his horse, lifted it's tail and kissed it where the sun don't shine. An old man rocking by the general store witnessed the whole thing. Whatya do that fer? he asked. Got chapped lips, the cowboy replied. The old man asked, Does that help? The cowboy said, No, but it keeps me from lickin' 'em. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:08
nomercy John Disney>(John Disney): - re: Lease Rates
...my most recent postings ( 3 ) from COT report of Sept 9, and the two news articles on today's gold action & analysts comments, certainly point to overwhelming 'borrowing' both by short sellers & producers. Lease rates must be going up as the 'gold leasing' is getting more difficult to obtain. Physical demand is also expected to increase from India later this month & it appears that NEW 'long' hedge funds are getting in ( Open interest is increasing ) .
John, I agree with what you're saying & wouldn't be at all surprised if suddenly investors will jump in next week ( gold mining stocks ) & ride from the fundamentals of the gold's supply/demand and equilibrium forces ( shorts, lease rates, inflation ) . The 'game history' is always distorted by the reporters & analysts , which is made from what George Soros would describe as 'imperfect understanding'.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 18:06
Bob @...BGO / AZS material volume on down side>(@...BGO / AZS material volume on down side): - Recently we have seen a material decline in shareholder values of the BGO/AZS Chilean gold/copper porphyry projects at Cerro Casale and other related plays. Two reasons come to mind:
1 ) Chile is seriously considering a 5% minining royalty as more senior politicians line-up on the tax side.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/y0023_z00_28.html
( This article describes a good example of irrational political thought. )
2 ) Barrick is closing its El Indio gold mine in northern Chile due to - according to the Northern Miner, metallurgy associated with copper laced sulphide ores that proved difficult to release gold during a roasting process. This mine was taken over by ABX when they bought Lac Minerals. The cash costs were very low and then escalated as the project developed over time. The first half of 1997 the cash costs were $350-ish per oz. - way up from about $100 per oz. in 1994.
Clearly, BGO's Cerro Casale find is being treated similarily even though metallurgy reports on the drill cores have consistently shown to be acceptable in floatation process extraction of gold.
http://www.barrick.com/pr970909.htm
..and Northern Miner's article on the project can be read in this week's edition out today - Barrick pulls plug on El Indio, Tambo -- Three other mines slated for shutdown in 1999.
I called the BGO/AZS Investor Relations and JohnAndersong, cheif IR, has a telephone message that essentially states that nothing has changed and all is on track with a 4Q97 pre-feasability study to be in-line with the Scoping Study released July 2nd. - about 15+ Mil ozs. au + about 5 Bill. lbs. cu. cash costs of about $100/oz with cu credits and total costs about $200/oz. with cu credits with ( cu price at $1 US/lb. )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:54
vronsky The Inger Letter Forecast - 11 September 1997>(The Inger Letter Forecast - 11 September 1997): - “Bigfoot is coming out of the bog... recommends 50% cash position.” DOW 5700-6400 seems to be reasonable price level at this time. Suspects Institutional selling:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger911.html
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:49
LSteve @civility>(@civility): - Guys, thought I'd chime in on the civility factor here at Kitco. I've been at this site for almost a year and it seems as though we have these eruptions from time to time. I don't mind anyone having an opinion that is diametrically opposed to mine. However when it is couched in vindictiveness and pettiness then that poster losses credibility, even though their opinions may be sound. Is this right? Maybe not, but it is the way of the world. Thus if a poster strives for credibility he must include civility. My 2 cents.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:49
Bill G @Shomedamoney>(@Shomedamoney): - Ron, bw etal
Current Fed money supply data can be found at:
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/h6/Current/
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:38
aurator nomercy>(nomercy): - Klapwijk:
But for a really serious move to the long side, what's probably needed is inflation, he said.............
Yet another gold expert who's never heard of Roy Jastram - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:35
nomercy Lease Rates>(Lease Rates): - ...could the Swiss may be Andy Smith?
The one-month gold lease rates moved up 100 basis points to 3.57 percent after the gold forward means were calculated by
the London Bullion Markets Assoication at 1000 GMT, signaling some panic buying.``
``It looked mostly like some panic borrowing to cover some shorts,'' one bullion trader said. ``Some of it came from the
Swiss.''
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/y0023_z00_29.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:27
nomercy Gold >(Gold ): - Klapwijk said that gold's next move was likely to be on the upside due to the very weight of short positions which currently
dominate and would induce some covering.
The threat of central bank sales had produced an exaggerated response in the investment community this year, and on the
fundamentals gold was at present a good buy--especially if talk of central bank sales proved hollow. Without investor selling,
the gold price would not have pushed down to anything like the present level, he said.
But for a really serious move to the long side, what's probably needed is inflation, he said in a presentation today entitled
Gold investment: Fashion victim or dinosaur.
In thee curse of the ever present contango had made forward sales profitable. Gold's low yield and storage charges were also
a disincentive.
http://www.cnnfn.com/news/knight_ridder/2333.1.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:19
George S. Cole gold outlook>(gold outlook): - Front: As you know I have long argued that stocks would peak in August and gold would trough at about the same time stocks peaked. I also opined that the looming gold bull would begin slowly with no upside fireworks until 1998.
Well the big cap stocks do seem to have peaked in August, but the small caps continue to make new highs. And gold probably troughed in early July. But I do admit that gold's upside since the trough has been considerably less than I expected. -- and my expectations were relatively modest.
Gold's poor performance since its apparent July bottom reflects the fact that the big cap stock averages still have not dropped by the 10% necessary to convince the masses that a true bear has begun. The dollar's strong performance also has been a big negative for the yellow stuff.
My latest thinking -- gold will not take off until bear markets ( as opposed to corrections ) are confirmed for stocks, bonds, and the dollar. All three must break down decisively before the yellow heads for the stars. And the more mines that are forced to close in the interim -- the stronger the bull move.
Gold stock action today was mediocre at best. Volume seems to contract on rallies and expand on declines. Looks like more downside ahead before the big turn. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:19
nomercy COT Sept 9>(COT Sept 9): - ...the hedge funds 'lid'....
GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 09/09/97 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
( CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES ) OPEN INTEREST: 202,432
COMMITMENTS
6,595 66,009 12,856 144,584 85,178 164,035 164,043 38,397 38,389
CHANGES FROM 09/02/97 ( CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 6,534 )
-79 -459 -254 5,838 3,082 5,505 2,369 1,029 4,165
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
3.3 32.6 6.4 71.4 42.1 81.0 81.0 19.0 19.0
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY ( TOTAL TRADERS: 112 )
17 40 7 37 42 60 84
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/cmxsf.htm
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 17:06
Front Milhouse>(Milhouse): -
Can you email me again please, you're address is rotten at this end.
Thanks
TTFN - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 16:52
lurker lurker@home>(lurker@home): - Looker-your 15:15 post
Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 15:15
Looker ( @the.mirror ) :
Lurker@14:40: Yours and Uris' earlier comments
about some members of this group are of no benefit
( as is this comment but what the heck ) . If you
want political correctness find another forum.
Here, we are all big girls and when necessary we
call a spade a spade.
There are some on this site who are fed up with rudeness,
insults, name-calling,...by the hepcats, LGBs, and the like
who enter the room to raise havoc. This disgust has nothing
to do with someone presenting a contrary opinion. By your
comments ( above ) it looks like you are the one who wants to
state the site rules. Has Bart turned this site over to you?
Does his rules still apply or have you replaced them? Does his
enforcing these site rules make him a Nazi like LGB implied? - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 16:38
pyramid .>(.): - The world is still a dangerous place. Go gold.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 16:29
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Lurker@home: for a real surprise you might go back to what I actually posted rather than your interpretation of it. Nice to have the site free of Hepcat and his continued reference to his predictive abilities isn't it.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 16:12
vronsky MONEY SUPPLY SURGING>(MONEY SUPPLY SURGING): - Lurker & Ron: MONEY SUPPLY & DEMAND FOR GOLD: The US Money supply surged! in latest period! VERY RELEVANT IS FOLLOWING Guest Guru Milhouse analysis -- an its impact on GOLD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse831.html
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 16:11
6pak War @ More War= Gold = international currency = store of value>(War @ More War= Gold = international currency = store of value): - Friday, September 12, 1997
******Taliban forces bomb Mazar-e-Sharif
The Taliban captured Mazar-e-Sharif in May, almost making complete their conquest of Afghanistan. But their forces were driven out just two days later in a devastating retreat that left hundreds of their soldiers dead.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep12_afghan.html
Friday, September 12, 1997
******Five killed, 3 injured in attack in Burundi
Ethnic violence has killed more than 150,000 people since Tutsi troops killed the Central African country's first democratically elected president, a Hutu, in October 1993.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep12_burundi.html
Friday, September 12, 1997
******Ten police stations attacked in Kosovo
This was the largest incident since wide-scale attacks targeting Serb police in Kosovo began early last year. Four Serb policemen and five civilians have been killed in previous attacks.
http://www.canoe.ca/News/sep12_yugo.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 16:10
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - To BGO fans:
Indication on the SI thread that there is to be a news release. Apparently sometime after the market closes. ( For What It's Worth. ) - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 15:27
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To All
Jse-golds led gold in the bull market that commenced
in early 1993. The jse-gold index crossed its 30 day MA
on Feb 12 1993, to be followed by a gold 30 day MA cross
on April 1. However, I would draw no conclusions from
that as the entire RSA market was in heavy euphoria -
the JSE overall had in fact crossed ITS 30 day MA in
early January 1993. I believe Big Nelson had just been
released from the the slammer or some similar event
that would have confounded the results.
On the other hand, Homestake crossed ITS MA on Feb
12 1993 also. So why did this happen. BIG TRADER or
equivalent KNEW well in advance that time in 1993 and
bought gold stocks before the gold price went up.
But back to the increase in the lease rate to what
looks like an all time high. Does an increase in the
lease rate signify that the demand for gold loans
or for short sales is starting to exceed the amount that
the CB want to supply I think it must. Any comments
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 15:27
Lurker How low will it go?>(How low will it go?): - GC: Weren't you the one that said the dollar needed to fall before we would see a rise in gold? Will it continue to fall?
Europe: Dollar Down, Gold Up
Friday, September 12, 1997; 2:14 p.m. EDT
LONDON ( AP ) -- The dollar fell against most other major currencies in late European trading Friday. Gold prices rose. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 15:15
Looker @the.mirror>(@the.mirror): - Lurker@14:40: Yours and Uris' earlier comments about some members of this
group are of no benefit ( as is this comment but what the heck ) . If you want
political correctness find another forum.
Here, we are all big girls and when necessary we call a spade a spade.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 15:09
Lurker hypercane?>(hypercane?): - El Nino: Hypercane swirls in Pacific; 190 mph gusts.
http://www.drudgereport.com/chase.htm - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 15:02
Lurker (?): -
Thursday September 11 4:37 PM EDT
US M-2 money supply up $18.0 bln in September 1 wk
NEW YORK, Sept 11 ( Reuter ) - U.S. M-2 money supply rose $18.0 billion in the September 1 week to $3,989.7 billion,
the Federal Reserve said.
The broader M-3 measure rose $19.5 billion to $5,228.7 billion. M-1 was up $10.0 billion to $1,080.6 billion, the Fed said.
The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was $3,969.7 billion versus $3,958.5 billion in the previous week.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:55
Ron M3>(M3): - bw, et al.: Until Vronsky posts his source for M3 data, check out Yardeni's graphs at http://www.yardeni.com/ . A link to his money supply data appears about half-way down the page in the Monetary & Fiscal Policies Section -- cool stuff covering reserves, M1, M2, M3, velocity, as well as money supply data for Japan, Germany, UK, Canada, etc.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:48
nomercy EL Nino >(EL Nino ): - El Nino could support precious metals - Dresdner
FRANKFURT, Sept 12 ( Reuter ) - The El Nino weather phenomenon could be supportive for precious metals prices if higher
prices of agricultural commodities were to fuel inflation, Dresdner Kleinwort Benson said on Friday.
The bank said sharply higher grain and oilseeds prices could contribute to inflationary pressures and this would be constructive
for silver and gold.
Some analysts were predicting soybean price increases of 30 percent over the next 12 months, it said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/09/12/y0023_z00_18.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:42
Uris @DFW>(@DFW): - To all:
There seems to be an over-reaction here about the quality of recent postings. Dont worryabout Kitco being destroyed, it will not happen.
Use the scroll button or better still the down arrow key to bypass anyone whose handle you find obnoxious. I will repeat it for the umpteenth time Silence is the perfect expression of scorn - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:40
Lurker Honor>(Honor): - I would like to complement Front and John Disney ( and many others ) for their admirable ability to state opposing opinions with honor. You have managed to express your view while leaving in tact the dignity of other posters. I refer you to Front's 11:37 post and John Disney's 2:55. Please continue to post, your comments are most appreciated.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:26
Strad Master Humor>(Humor): - LGB: Your comments regarding truth are well taken.
I've discovered long ago that the internet medium makes subtle humor almost impossible. We have no tone of voice here and so posting something toungue-in-cheek without massive numbers of ( :- ) ) symbols can be fraught with danger. I have NO IDEA mhow much of your post to Mike Sheller was in jest and how much was meant mean-spiritedly. Re-read your posts without the humor you intended and you'll see they could be taken as being merely combative. Humor here either needs to be very broad or it's better left out of the mix. On the other hand, as I've said before, you're a funny guy. Please try to keep the humor in your posts but be aware of us at the other end and how things might be taken. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:18
lurker lurker@home>(lurker@home): - Fundy - your 11:08 post
Your comments including your reference to Hepcat
surprise me since you were Hepcat's cheerleader
when he was posting here and LGB's, as well, as
soon as he arrived here and began tearing up the
site.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:17
Lurker news>(news): - To Donald, Nomercy, LGB and other posters of news, you provide a wealth of information. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 14:12
LGB Strad>(Strad): - Strad, agree that Mr. Sheller's call was impressive on that call. Much more data needed for conclusions to be drawn. LGB posts were satirical in nature and misunderstood by Mr. Sheller. To avoid misunderstandings, and conform to BB participants requests, posts from LGB to now be impersonal, humorless, colorless, and informational only. Final editorial comment, Truth is not defined by LGB, Strad, Sheller, et al,. What we believe does not define truth, truth is whatever may be factual aside from our beliefs. i.e. well apart from current existential thinking, what I believe does not make something true, proper question is whether it is true if I don't exist. Apologies for editorial comment. Gold, Platinum, & Silver are forming a base for long term bull market, T.A. to follow early next week.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:46
Skylark @>(@): - LGB: Agree on SSC, one of the safest and rewarding plays on the board if nothing else than a call on silver. This quarter may be the first in a long time that it has a positive cash flow with the expansion of the SS mine which production will improve with time and its Argentina finds are notable. The risk is how to finance the projects.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:46
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net>(Strad1@idt.net): - MIKE SHELLER: I found the exchange between you and LGB to be fascinating and MOST instructive. It shows how sometimes those who pride themselves on having a skeptical viewpoint but an open mind can get caught up in an agenda. It is a treacherous line that one has to tread if one desires moderation in all things, since the lure of extremism is always very powerful. I think it's important to look at evidence fairly - even if it doesn't comport with one's cherished beliefs, since truth is certainly more important than being right. This is as true for Goldbugs as it is for LGB and Alan Greenspan. I can't yet say for sure if your Astrological market calls are right on, but your MOGN call was certainly particularly impressive, especially for someone like me who tries to remain objective in dealing with things I don't fully undertand. Please be good enough to inform us about future events like that.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:42
LGB El Nino/Placer Dome Mining>(El Nino/Placer Dome Mining): - Severe drought in Papua New Guinea, caused by El Nino, brings gold mining operation of Placer Dome to a halt. See following story;
Monday September 8 6:18 AM EDT
Papua New Guinea economy rocked by severe drought
By Mark Bendeich
MELBOURNE, Sept 8 ( Reuter ) - Papua New Guinea officials on Monday were preparing to send food aid into the South
Pacific country's parched highlands as severe drought shrivelled crops and brought a huge gold mine to its knees.
Many thousands of villagers in three highland provinces have seen their food and cash crops destroyed by months of
unseasonably dry weather and heavy frosts, the official National Disaster and Emergency Service said on Monday.
Rivers and dams have also dried up in the resource-rich highlands, bringing the country's two biggest mines to a standstill.
The huge Ok Tedi copper mine, which uses river barges to move its production to port, has been sealed off from the coast
for almost a month, with no road network to fall back on.
Papua New Guinea's big Porgera gold mine on Monday also fell victim to the drought, announcing it had closed down
milling operations due to a lack of water to treat the ore.
``The barge from where we pump the water is effectively sitting on the bottom ( of the mine reservoir ) ,'' said Russell
Barwick, managing director of Placer Nuigini, local subsidiary of mine owner Placer Dome Inc ( PDG.TO ) of Canada.
Porgera produced 850,000 ounces of gold in 1996. Porgera and the Ok Tedi mine, owned by The Broken Hill Pty Co Ltd
( BHP.AX ) , account for over a quarter of national export income, said the Institute of National Affairs, a privately funded
think-tank.
Both mines could resume operations quickly if their prayers for rain were answered, though BHP said Ok Tedi would need a
week of heavy rain before the Fly River was navigable again.
But it may be too late for Papua New Guinea's two most important export crops -- coffee and palm oil.
Palm plantations are already starting to suffer and a continuation of drought late into the year could also harm the flowering
of coffee shrubs. Industry bodies said this would mean lower production for both crops in 1998.
``I've been here 12, 13 years and I've never seen anything like this,'' said Nick Thompson, managing director of New Britain
Palm Oil Ltd which runs the country's biggest plantations.
``It's absolutely amazing. It's going to have a serious impact in the second half of next year,'' he said by phone from the
island of New Britain east of mainland Papua New Guinea.
New Britain Palm Oil is owned 80 percent by Malaysia's Kulim Bhd ( KULM.KL ) .
This year's coffee crop was picked in May, but the Coffee Industry Corp held similar concerns for next year's crop.
``If the rains do not come at the right time then we will lose a lot of coffee,'' the body's senior economist, Tiri Kuimbakul,
told Reuters from the highlands by telephone.
Papua New Guinea locals say the drought is the worst in 25 years. Ok Tedi normally receives around 10 metres ( 33 feet ) of
rain a year but has seen little rainfall in two months.
``There is reason for concern at the moment, however, in this part of the world, things can turn around in 24 hours,'' said
John Hooton, head of U.S. investment bank Merrill Lynch's Papua New Guinea office.
But the weather forecasts are not rosy.
The El Nino phenomenon, blamed for dry weather across the region, is expected to intensify over the next few months,
prolonging the drought. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:27
vronsky PUETZ LETTER -BULL KILLERS: Over-valuation & Leverage>(PUETZ LETTER -BULL KILLERS: Over-valuation & Leverage): - Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:22
LGB German Rate Increase>(German Rate Increase): - Friday September 12 12:20 PM EDT
Johnson Smick declines comment on Buba rate report
NEW YORK, Sept 12 ( Reuter ) - Washington-based consulting group Johnson Smick International Inc on Friday declined to
comment on widespread market talk that the firm had issued a report saying that Germany's Bundesbank would soon raise
official interest rates.
``I cannot confirm or deny it,'' a spokeswoman said.
Rumors circulated in foreign and government debt markets both here and overseas that the Bundesbank would raise official
interest rates after the September 20 meeting of the Group of Seven industrial nations.
The talk pressured German debt earlier, and weighed on dollar/mark.
Reuters contacted a Johnson Smick subscriber here, who said he did not receive any report on Friday from the consulting
firm.
In addition, the subscriber, who chose not to be named, said he placed a telephone call to the consulting firm. ``They said that
they didn't put out any report today,'' he added. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:20
bw Re: M3 source and money supply:>(Re: M3 source and money supply:): - Perhaps Professor vronsky would be kind enough to post the fed page source for the M3 number. I got mine over the phone. I am not sure what gives with the money supply. There is a rumor which I have heard for the last couple of months that the money supply in this country is out of control and that the fed is scared to death. They figure even a 200-300 point increase in the discount rate will have little effect. They are certain however such an increase will bring down our financial house of cards. So they, like us, watch in horrible fascination as this farce of farces plays out. I do know that the 100 oz bar of .999 silver which you can pick up for less than 500 in soon to be worthless bucks is the best investment/insurance/purchase/dollar_sink I can think of. As DA says the potential for a squeeze of unimaginable proportions exists in the precious metals. I stand by my statement that before it is all over an ounce of silver may be worth more than the dow.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:19
LGB Middle East Talks Break down>(Middle East Talks Break down): - In view of historic impact on gold prices, following article may be of interest. CNN, Trip to Revive Mideast Peace fails...U.S. Sec, of State Madeleine Albright.... http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9709/12/mideast.early/
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:14
Ted @ What's up>(@ What's up): - As usual am goin through a period where I can only access about 20% of the sites on the net...is gold up...down...sideways....Just back from a stimulating seakayaking experience on the high seas....Thank the good lord my yocal ISP can't interfere with that activity....IDIOTS...BUFFOONS
....and total INCOMPETANTS would be a polite way to describe my ISP...
but what do expect in an area where competition is described as EVIL and Unions+ big gov'ment dominate the business scene ( WW's utopia ) just like Vermont ( hahahaha ) ..... - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:11
LGB ECHO Mines>(ECHO Mines): - Latest ECO press release, positive news re a major holding of ECO.
Company Press Release
Canarc Resource: Record Gold Production From Sara Kreek Mine in Suriname
VANCOUVER, British Columbia-- ( BUSINESS WIRE ) --Sept. 11, 1997--Canarc Resource Corp ( TSE, VSE:CCM ) ( OTC
Bulletin Board:CRCUF ) Canarc Resource Corp. is pleased to announce record gold production for the first six months of
1997 from the Sara Kreek Gold Mine in Suriname. To the end of June, 1997, raw gold production totalled 2,051 oz., a 412
percent increase over the 498 oz. produced over the same period in 1996.
Since the re-commencement of mining at Sara Kreek in 1995 by Canarc's Subsidiary Company, Sara Kreek Resource Corp.,
gold production has increased steadily ( see bar chart attached ) . August production set a new monthly record at 727 oz. gold.
Annual production for 1997 is now projected to exceed 4,500 oz., or double last year's production of 2,280 oz.
Sara Kreek is a small surface placer mine operated by Canarc's partner, Suriname Wylap Development Co., and produces
gold nuggets and dust by sluicing of alluvial gravels from several creeks on the property. Sara Kreek is one of the largest
gold districts in Suriname, having produced over 500,000 oz. gold historically. No formal gold reserves have been estimated
for the Sara Kreek Gold Mine. However, systematic pitting and panning of the gold bearing creeks indicate the possibility of
many years of production at current rates. Full capacity is anticipated to average 643 oz. per month or 8,000 oz. per year by
1998.
Canarc Resource Corp. is a growth-oriented, international gold exploration and mining company with active projects
worldwide. Major shareholders include Barrick Gold Corp. and Echo Bay Mines Ltd. The Company's common shares trade
under the symbol ``CCM'' on the Toronto Stock Exchange as well as on the following exchanges: Vancouver: Vista-CCM,
Frankfurt: Third Market Segment-CAN, Berlin: Over the Counter-CAN, NASD: Electronic Bulletin Board-CRCUF.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
CANARC RESOURCE CORP.
Bradford J. Cooke, President
NOTE: Bar chart available from the Company at the phone number
listed below.
NOTE: If you have an E-Mail address and would prefer to receive
Canarc's News through this format, please E-Mail us at
73704.3544@compuserve.com - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:07
kiwi Sick Thai bank have the runs>(Sick Thai bank have the runs): - Thais brace for runs on local banks
BANGKOK, Sept. 12 ( UPI ) -- Thailand's bankers and government officials
are bracing for depositor runs on five local banks following reports an
American financial analyst believes the banks could collapse.
Nicholas Krasno, vice president and senior credit officer of the New
York-based Moody's Investors Services, was quoted as saying about five
of Thailand's 15 banking groups could fail by the end of next year due
to the country's liquidity crisis, the sharp decline of the baht and the
near collapse of the property market.
Thailand's smaller banks have been hit by mass withdrawals for
several months, but the remarks of the Moody's official were expected to
intensify the run by depositors.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 13:01
LGB Iran Threat>(Iran Threat): - Following article re investigation of missile threat from Iran which could destabilize middle East, or lead to a potential for nuclear exchange. Iran is developing nuclear weapon capability.
Congressman asks Gore to get involved in missile issue
By Larry Wheeler FLORIDA TODAY
WASHINGTON - Concerned that Russia's space agency could be helping Iran develop long-range ballistic missile capability, Rep. Dave Weldon, R-Palm Bay, has asked Vice President Al Gore to get involved.
In a letter released Thursday, Weldon asked the vice president to act on reports that Yuri Koptev, head of the Russian Space Agency, is assisting Iran in developing missiles capable of delivering warheads up to a distance of 1,240 miles.
This is a pretty serious development to have the head of the Russian Space Agency implicated as one of the key individuals to enable the Iranian regime to acquire ballistic missile technology, not only allowing them to threaten Israel but western Europe as well, Weldon said Thursday. The administration needs to get involved in this in a major way.
If true, Weldon said the implications for national security and the nation's space program are serious.
This troubling report about Mr. Koptev could further erode Russia's credibility in the eyes of Congress, threatening any continued cooperation between our countries, Weldon wrote in the letter to Gore.
Weldon said the Russians have been less than reliable partners with the United States in their venture to build the International Space Station.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Andreyev denied reports of Russia-Iran cooperation, according to a Reuters wire service story. It was Gore who brought the Russians into the space station partnership, despite objections from members of Congress.
A staff member in Gore's press office said she was unaware of Weldon's letter and could not respond.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:58
LGB reSSC>(reSSC): - Sunshine Mining unchanged at .75 on volume of 503,000. Volume seems to be incresing in recent days since latest bottom of 11/16 earlier, and in view of strengthening silver prices. Current P/E of 5.36 very favorable. SSC peaked at 23 in 1981 and 20 in 1983, is overdue for a sharp rally when mining stocks begin their run up. Potential for explosive gains.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:48
Zardoz BW...evidence>(BW...evidence): - BW....do you ( or others on Kitco ) have evidence of such attempts to disclose/audit gold supplies at Ft. Knox or the Federal Reserve Bank of New York? Which Congressmen, which hearings?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:44
Front Miro>(Miro): -
No Miro, no machine shop here .... pro trader remember .... Although it does remind me of a HONDA motorcycle add a few years back......
Put something exciting between your legs ... drive a Honda !
TTFN
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:39
bw Re: Gene, gold audits>(Re: Gene, gold audits): - Gene: I suspect you may be on to something here. In this country a bill has been introduced in our congress, about every ten years or so, requesting an audit of the gold at Fort Knox. The powers that be have refused such a request at least for the last fifty years! The peoples gold indeed! They lie and then lie about their lies and we continue to trust em. Perhaps the next time they confiscate our gold we will be justified in replying, What is gold?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:35
nailz RIGHT ON THE MONEY....>(RIGHT ON THE MONEY....): - LURKER @ 10:47.........Squelch button = Scroll down and ignore. How long does it take to learn this
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Nikkei index closes below 18,000 on heavy
volume
The Nikkei Stock Average took a dive Friday, closing 17,965.8, down
316.43 points. It was the first close below 18,000 since Sept. 1.
The day's high of 18,215.62 was marked at 9:01 a.m., with the low
coming at 17,803.48 at 1:59 p.m.
The index regained nearly 200 points on bargain hunting by domestic
financial companies after Taku Yamasaki, chairman of the Liberal
Democratic Party's Policy Research Council, said shortly past 2 p.m.
that the party is considering using land taxes and policy to stimulate the
economy.
Steady selling of cash stocks to buy stock futures for unloading arbitrage
positions blurred the rebound, however. Investors fear worsening
business sentiment and anticipate lower prices. Increased selling of blue
chips by foreign investors also curbed upward movement.
Trading volume swelled to 738 million shares, partly due to transactions
linked to the fixing of the special quotation this morning.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:28
Lurker Zardoz>(Zardoz): - Zardoz: Maybe we can get Heraldo ( sp? ) to do a TV special to record the opening of each CB vault! ( :~ )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:23
Larry bond rate>(bond rate): - Accordiing to Bloomberg, 30 year bond rates went up yesterdday to 6.69% as gold jumped. Today, something drove the rate down to 6.63 as if bonds are being managed. Gold moves with the rate, or at least, wants to. Does anyone follow this area of the market closer and have any comments?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:20
Lurker M3>(M3): - bw: CNBC tracks Fed action. For the last month, it seems to me, the indicator has shown liquidity added. Being a novice, I'm not completely sure what this means. Please expound on what you think is going on. Thanks
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:17
zardoz M3 statistics>(M3 statistics): - BW....could you lead me to the source for your M3 money supply statistics? Thanks!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:12
Zardoz CB Manipulation of Gold Reserve Facts>(CB Manipulation of Gold Reserve Facts): - Gene, Jack and others: Gene you raise a challenge for all Kitco..what is the true gold supply data of CBs?....can one count on the accuracy of official statistics? Ted Butler's article Dumb and Dumber about the folly of gold loans by CBs illustrates the folly of such practices if there ever is a full disclosure of the gold supply vacumn that may really exist. It strikes me that it is in the interests of CBs to keep misleading records of gold supplies, for strategic reasons, thereby presumably publicly reporting their supplies as a gold accounts receivable when in fact the gold has been long sold by the mining companies as recipients of those bullion loans. As Butler correctly notes, if this is so, the official gold supply statistics may grossly misrepresent actual physical supplies in their vaults since the gold has been sold into the market place long ago. Any crisis in currency markets and a flight to gold as a storage of value will create unimaginable crises around the globe, at least among G7 nations who are pracitising such gold leasing, when the supply vacumn is revealed. In a word, pandamonia will ensue. As Butler notes, if such gold leasing practices exist, this is criminal.
Can anyone on Kitco ( including Ted Butler ) provide an estimate of the variance between actual and official supplies of gold in CB vaults ( i.e. the supply vacumn ) that may exist if the practice of gold leasing is true? If so, what is the estimated spike in gold prices should such reality come to be exposed?...$1000, $2000, $3000 per oz gold?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:07
bw M3>(M3): - Latest weeks increase in the M3 money supply +19.5 Billion. I cannot remember such a string of increases as we have seen in the last dozen or so weeks. Something is going on!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 12:03
EB YellowJacket...OUCH!>(YellowJacket...OUCH!): - ( in my best Michael Jackson impression ) :
I'm going to work now, hee hee. ( grabbing myself )
away...to stay AWAY from all sanding machines...dooooh!
EB !!?*%#*!#*?#!! - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:54
EB Gene>(Gene): - I see you gave the 'double' challenge. Whoa! You're Serious aren't ya!
My call is ( and I don't have any numbers for ya ) that you will start to see how much GOLD the central banks DO have if we have a rally. They will POUR out of the woodwork with their GOLD and beat that price down into the DIRT! They have LOTS-O-GOLD! imnsho...
away...to crawl back to the woodwork :-0
EB - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:48
Miro @Front>(@Front): - Front, after you said Yellow Jacket: OUCH! and just before lunch
too. ! the only thing is on my mind: I hope he'll be careful!!
I hope you don't work in machine shop! Sorry, I could not resist ;- )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:33
Gene @Challenge TO ALL>(@Challenge TO ALL): - I challenge everyone on this sight to prove beyond a reasonable doubt how much gold remains in the vaults of the Central Banks. Please use documented numbers if you accept this challenge. I doubt if there are any documented numbers.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:32
Gene @Challenge TO ALL>(@Challenge TO ALL): - I challenge everyone on this sight to prove beyond a reasonable doubt how much gold remains in the vaults of the Central Banks. Please use documented numbers if you accept this challenge.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:30
D.A. bit.by.bit>(bit.by.bit): - All:
The action across the precious metals complex appears to be getting stronger by the day. There seems to be that 'feeling' of an inexorable creep higher. The white metals are acting particularly well and give the impression of strong accumulation. Its getting easy to be a bull. Buy the dips and wait for the market to bail you out.
With the monetary aggregates expanding at a pace not seen for many a year the fuel is definitely being stoked into the inflationary fires. For owners of stuff we are in sliding happily into the sweet spot of the cycle. The Fed will sit idly by, waiting for the PPI and CPI to 'smoke' before acting. Whether they have been politically brow beaten into backward looking monetary policy or actually believe their own bull*$*% with regards to the 'new' economy, hardly seems to matter. The point is that they will do nothing. Excess money creation must lead to inflated asset pricing. If financial assets are unable to keep exploding to new highs because of gross empirical overvaluation, then the stuff will take its place.
For those skeptical over the possibilities with regards to massive price increases in silver, platinum, palladium or any other commodity in short supply, consider the following. We are a very small player the physical commodities markets and manage a mere $15,000,000 which can play in that particular game. By making a bet of a few percent of our portfolio in silver options we now are in position to control ( should prices rise on the order of 30% from these levels over the next year or so ) between 1 and 2 percent of the worlds above ground stocks of silver depending upon whose guess you use for that number. This means that a fund with between 50 and 100 times our assets ( of which several exist ) making the same relative bet, could end up with an options position on ALL of the silver bullion in the world. And all this without taking a particularly aggressive bet. The point of numbers is to show that with the amount of leverage available in the market, should the price of any of these commodities get going in a meaningful way, the short squeeze will be phenomenal and prices can go virtually anywhere. The first 50 - 100% might be difficult and slow, but the ensuing spike at the top will be fast and out of control. The spike is the real payoff for these bets. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:30
AG green@tscnet.com>(green@tscnet.com): - Yellow Jacket -
In response to your questions about on-line brokers, I have been using E*Trade for about 6 months. The commissions are about the lowest around, and my orders have been filled promptly. I think it's a great way to trade because I don't get unsolicited advice and opinions from a broker. ( Not to mention those stock of the day sales calls ) All the information I need can be accessed online, and I am free to make my own trading decisions. I love it! Now if only I could trade futures online...
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:27
Front George: Yellow Jacket>(George: Yellow Jacket): -
George:
George, I've become a firm believer in your stocks first movements theories after yesterdays and todays reactions however ....
In June, you said July would be good....
In July you said August would be special ....
On August 1st you changed that to September ....
Now halfway through September you're into October ...
I Quote:
From a more positive perspective, the selling climax now developing in the gold sector should be over by month's end. This will set the stage for a powerful rally, probably commencing in October
George, I admire your reasoning and overall knowledge but can you fix the timing a bit? ( :- ) ) Nothing personal I assure you. Maybe as King, you could hire a timer assistant or make Mike S. a part of the hirelings....
Yellow Jacket: OUCH! and just before lunch too. !
TTFN - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:19
vronsky ORACLE OF ALBERTA>(ORACLE OF ALBERTA): - Historical precedent suggests House Of Rothschild is buying gold hand over fist! See extensive analysis review of what the the Richest Family in the world is investing in now:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta909.html
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:19
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - Jack: The author was McAlvany. Now I understand why some gold analysts are turning to the stars for help. Meaningful numbers do not exist. Everyone simply accepts the numbers of the Central Banks. They operate in secret and nobody really knows for sure what is going on. For all anyone knows there is little or no gold remaining in the vaults of the Central Banks. One fact is sure: One cannot depend on the veracity of governments. How does anyone know how much gold the Central Banks have sold over the last 15 years? Wouldn't it be amusing if the Central Banks are controlling the markets with a glorious bluff.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:14
Yellow Jacket Indicators...>(Indicators...): - Dow now down 35. At least the market got by the initial up knee-jerk reaction to today's numbers. PPI up .3% as expected, but the PPI I think is a lagging indicator of inflation. The CPI is much better and that comes out Mon. There is too much inertia in producer costs ( FIFO inventories, for one ) to show up in one or two months as producer prices. Retail sales down slightly, but would you take your family out shopping if you were one of the 100K's UPS workers on strike? And the strike must have also affected retail stores somewhat. Inflation IS creeping up. Can't find apartments in NYC...four hikes in NYC parking rates in the last few weeks ( ave. $1000/mo fee now - higher than my mortgage!!! ) . I think Monday's numbers will be the first strong signal of impending inflation. Watch out for running bulls.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:14
Lurker anyone>(anyone): - CNBC just reported latest mutual fund inflow to US market is 2.9B. Does anyone know if this is net inflows after deducting outflows? Reporting what's going in without reporting what's going out could be misleading.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:13
vronsky The Inger Letter Forecast - 11 September 1997>(The Inger Letter Forecast - 11 September 1997): - “Bigfoot is coming out of the bog... recommends 50% cash position.” DOW 5700-6400 seems to be reasonable price level at this time. Suspects Institutional selling:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger911.html
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:08
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - The Squelch Button was voted on around the beginning of the year. It will allow you to stop receiving posts from people you don't want to even see--eg Hepcat for some of us. That is how I understood the process and so far there has been no message from Bart suggesting otherwise.
Beats the scroll button in my view. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 11:00
Yellow Jacket @Work>(@Work): - JAY DEE: Thanks for the feedback on Datek. Already registered. TORT: No joke? here's an old story that's good for a laugh.
Scrotum Self-Repair
The following is the Unusual Case case column from the July 1991 issue of the trade magazine Medical Aspects of Human sexuality, by William A. Morton, Jr.
One morning I was called to the emergency room by the head ER nurse. She directed me to a patient who had refused to describe his problem other than to say that he needed a doctor who took care of men's troubles. The patient, about 40, was pale, febrile, and obviously uncomfortable, and had little to say as he gingerly opened his trousers to expose a bit of angry red and black-and-blue scrotal skin.
After I asked the nurse to leave us, the patient permitted me to remove his trousers, shorts, and two or three yards of foul-smelling stained gauze wrapped about his scrotum, which was swollen to twice the size of a grapefruit and extremely tender. A jagged zig-zag laceration, oozing pus and blood, extended down the left scrotum.
Amid the matted hair, edematous skin, and various exudates, I saw some half-buried dark linear objects and asked the patient what they were. Several days earlier, he replied, he had injured himself in the machine shop where he worked, and had closed the laceration himself with a heavy-duty stapling gun. The dark objects were one-inch staples of the type used in putting up wallboard.
We x-rayed the patient's scrotum to locate the staples; admitted him to the hospital; and gave him tetanus antitoxin, broad-spectrum antibacterial therapy, and hexachlorophene sitz baths prior to surgery the next morning. The procedure consisted of exploration and debridement of the left side of the scrotal pouch. Eight rusty staples were retrieved, and the skin edges were trimmed and freshened.
The left testis had been avulsed and was missing. The stump of the spermatic cord was recovered at the inguinal canal, debrided, and the vessels ligated properly, though not much of a hematoma was present. Through-and-through Penrose drains were sutured loosely in site, and the skin was loosely closed.
Convalescence was uneventful, and before his release from the hospital less than a week later, the patient confided the rest of his story to me. An unmarried loner, he usually didn't leave the machine shop at lunchtime with his coworkers. Finding himself alone, he had begun the regular practice of masturbating by holding his penis against the canvas drive-belt of a large floor-based piece of machinery. One day, as he approached orgasm, he lost his concentration and leaned too close to the belt. When his scrotum became caught between the pulley- wheel and the drive-belt, he was thrown into the air and landed a few feet away. Unaware that he had lost his left testis, and perhaps too stunned to feel much pain, he stapled the wound closed and resumed work. I can only assume he abandoned this method of self- gratification.
[William A. Morton is a retired urologist residing in West Chester, Pennsylvania.] - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:58
Lurker Going , going, gone?>(Going , going, gone?): - It seems this market is being driven by two things; Fear of lower earnings and Fear of inflation. The key word is FEAR! :~ )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:54
EB No Mercy 8:53>(No Mercy 8:53): - That news you posted seems to be the reason why the Yen is getting kicked right now. Earlier in the week I made some decent money on some Japanese politico comments...strange knee-jerk reactions...but ya' gotta love it if you are on the right side.
If not, it's like weather in Hawaii... if you don't like it, wait a few minutes/hours, no?
away...to buy some Yen?
EB - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:47
Lurker EB>(EB): - squelch button=scroll down. Now, if everyone can figure out how to use it. :~ )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:45
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - EB -- Yes. Just scroll past!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:42
nomercy badger>(badger): - Meeting is starting next week, Sept. 17, in Hong Kong.
IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings ( through
September 25 ) - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:35
EB @Eldo's scene...>(@Eldo's scene...): - Don't we have that capability right now? I mean to scroll down and Not read 'those deemed unnecessary'? It's like the channel changer on the boob-tube, right? Still confused...hmmmmm...
eb - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:35
panda @>(@): - For all of the crash believers, what will precipitate the crash? Other than the comparisons to '29 and '87, what about the fundamentals? In 1928, there was ~25% unemployment amongst the WASP segment of the population. That was the dominant group at the time. Do we have 25% unemployment amongst the dominant group today? Is there an open currency squabble, like there was in 1987 between the U.S. and Germany? Granted, markets can fall of their own weight, but if that's what you believe, then say so.
I believe this market is toast, I just don't know when it will end, that's all. I believe that a slow grinding bear with lots of volatility will be the ending of this bull. That's what I'm looking for. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:27
Lurker netiquette>(netiquette): - Skylark: I share your view. I hope those who have quit posting will return and once again share their wisdom. I thought it might be helpful to post Kitco's guidelines:
THINGS TO AVOID:
Don’t post any derogatory remarks regarding any group’s race, religion, or ethnic background.
Don’t use profanities or foul language.
Don’t make any insulting remarks or statements that provoke other participants.
Don’t post any unrelated comments that are likely to arouse a strong emotional response.
Don't advertise. If you have something to sell use our Classified Ads section. It's free.
Don't partiicipate as an investor if your interest is really in promoting stocks. Identify yourself and use the
Classified Ads instead.
What to do when somebody breaks the DON’T rules
Absolutely ignore the remarks. No response is the best response. If the abuse continues notify the system administrator and
they will handle it.
If anyone indicates that they felt offended by comments you may have made, grant an immediate automatic apology. The issue
will die right there if you don’t attempt to have them justify their feelings.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:21
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Steve Puetz
Re 22:31- Dec 700 put
Going off my TA - I currrently maintain an Excell chart with the '29, '87 &'97 crashes graphed for the Dow, S&P500 and Oz - All Ords. All converted to scale.They show that the Crash is only 13 days away and that everything is going to plan. One has only to wait and see.
If this coming crash was to be the same magnitude as '29 or '87, then the odds are that the Dow will end up between 5300 and 6300.
Given that these falls are between 24% and 36% from the top of 8300.
One could predict that the falls on the S&P500 from 960 would end up between 620 and 730.
If the crash is not too savage due to Gov't, Dippies or whatever and the S&P500 only fell to say 680, then one could presume that you would have lost you money on the S&P500 Dec700 put - but have seen a substancial downdraft on the index and made no money out of the trade.
Wouldn't I be better off spending the extra money and buying say the Dec850 put, forgoing some of the leverage but increasing the odds of making money out of the trade.
With the index at 800 I would be in the money with the profits steadily increasing as the fall gets more savage.
I too believe that there is a excellent chance of the crash happening 'very soon' and have a belief that the fall will be overextended for obvious reasons. But prefer to improve the odds of making it a profitable trade. If I am wrong there is every chance that I will be able to salvage some of the funds but will have the necessary expose to a good fall. I still consider the trade a total gamble but with good odds of return and are willing to buy a ticket in the raffle. I also like the time frame ie. that we should see definite action this month otherwise the bet is off.
So far I have purchased some long term put warrants expiry '99 on all our bank stocks. New series at a cheap price - already in the money. These should be good insurance and will pay off handsomely if we go into a long term grinding bear market. Good as Gold!
Nick
avidly watching in anticipation - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:20
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - EB -- Squelch button; scroll past that which is deemed by you to be unnecessary to read!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 10:11
George Cole gold action>(gold action): - December gold down $1.40 and gold stocks remain under heavy pressure. pretty much what I expected.
From a more positive perspective, the selling climax now developing in the gold sector should be over by month's end. This will set the stage for a powerful rally, probably commencing in October
. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:58
EB what is it anyway...>(what is it anyway...): - Many people talk about a Squelch Button. What is it? I Realize it is a form of silencer/censor but is there a more exact definition...and it doesn't sound good anyway.
eb - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:49
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Morning Ted. It looks like gold and silver have a hard time handling a little success. My smouldering paper prediction today seems like so much confetti blowing in the wind at this point. Paper seems to be withstanding the international flame nicely but perhaps someone is spraying flame retardant on the paper. eh?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:33
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Would anyone out there have an updater for Metastock that will up date off an ascii file and work under Win95. I have one that works in dos but painfull to use.
Email to sharefin@cairns.net.au
Ta Nick - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:32
Shek home>(home): - IBM
Coca-Cola
Motorola
Who will be next?
All of them.
Projected future earnings?
Hogwash. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:29
Nick @ Aussie>(@ Aussie): - Globex = Volatility
Two hrs ago S&P500 -350 now +750
Nasdaq100 -1700 now +600
In Oz our SPI futures have jumped from 2625 to 2645, a 20pt jump in last 1/2 hr.
Looks like globally everyone's watching with avid interest.
Our big miners being hit hard with BHP getting trashed - looks like it's ready to freefall. Rio on the depth screen today had no buyers at all. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:27
cherokee @bull-s**t>(@bull-s**t): - bart kitner----
when is the squelch button going to appear?
the diatribe that has consumed this site, from
hep-rat, to lgb, etc... is/has become an anchor
from which the ship cannot release her-self. the
constant battering of the waves is damaging the
integrity of the hull.
opinions are one thing, foaming at the mouth attack
dogs are quite another. self-policing policies will
never work, as evidenced by the recent past.
the farther backward one can look, the farther forward
one can see!
bart, either cut the anchor line and provide a squelch
button, or lose your baby along with the bath-water.
cherokee!;'-----gaucho--ted---gaucho--it's their best ( steely ) - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:18
JayDee @TheRock>(@TheRock): - Yellow Jacket: I have used Datek for the last 6 months. Response time is very good, most questions can be found on their web site. Also advertised quite often on microsoft investor. datek.com
JayDee - long time lurker....
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:14
Friend of Kitco To Bart, Mike Sheller as well as the other sincere participants on this forum:>(To Bart, Mike Sheller as well as the other sincere participants on this forum:): - Sirs: We at Kitco are being given an object lesson in how Big Brother will probably handle the one growing communication medium he does not yet control. As usuall its brillant. Examine the posts over the last 12 hours. What I see is one or more pseudo posters insulting himself and others with the obvious intent of destroying this forum. Bart we have a real problem here. Free speech is being used to destroy free speech. Good luck brother.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 09:04
badger @re: nomercy>(@re: nomercy): - Good post, sounds like our government would like to take'em to the woodshed. When is the G-7?, could be some good fireworks!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:59
panda @Options>(@Options): - JustALurker -- Talking about my buddies at Schwabee, if you really want to see how well they perform, trade some index options with them. :- ) )
I have never been able to execute a buy and sell at a profit unless the indexes in question have had a huge run-up. Between the huge spreads, their lousy fills and even worse executions ( when it's in their favor ) ...
This is why I'm trying out a new brokerage firm... We shall see if it makes a difference. BBL - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:53
nomercy Rubin worried (Japan)>(Rubin worried (Japan)): - I think they have a challenge that is of enormous importance to
them and the rest of the world.
U.S. anxious to see Japan boost its growth
and imports
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Reuter Information Service
WASHINGTON ( September 11, 1997 10:57 p.m. EDT ) - President
Clinton's advisers said Thursday that the United States is eager to see
Japan boost its domestic economy but that it is up to Tokyo to decide how
that should be accomplished.
We would like to see Japan grow, White House chief economist Janet
Yellen told a business conference.
It's up to the Japanese government to decide how best that kind of growth
can be achieved, rather than for us to give advice, Yellen, who heads the
Council of Economic Advisers, told the conference, sponsored by Smith
Barney. It is really a matter of Japanese choices and decisions.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said Japan's commitment to
domestic demand-led growth was of great importance to the U.S. and
world economies.
Asked whether Japan was succeeding in pulling its economy out of
recession by demand-led growth rather than boosting exports, Rubin
replied: I think they have a challenge that is of enormous importance to
them and the rest of the world.
U.S. officials are increasingly worried about Japan's growing trade surplus.
In recent interviews, officials said they would like Tokyo to do more to boost
domestic demand and imports, and rely less on exports to lift its sagging
economy.
Their economy is faltering and they're depending very heavily on exports
and pushing them very hard, Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Alice
Rivlin said in a speech in Denver Thursday.
Rubin, answering reporters' questions after participating in a tax forum
sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, said he would discuss the
Japanese economy with that nation's leaders later this month in Hong
Kong, where the Group of Seven industrialized nations, International
Monetary Fund and World Bank will be meeting.
We are very interested when we meet in Hong Kong in discussing this
( Japan's economy ) with them, Rubin said.
Political analysts said the Clinton administration was trying to put pressure
on Japan to renew its commitment to economic reforms before the G7
meeting.
The administration has to be seen as being tough, said Ellen Frost, a
senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics.
We're trying to use peer pressure at the G7 to stimulate further
demand-led growth measures in Japan. Turning up the temperature a few
degrees may be in order, Frost said.
The dollar's recent strength against the yen has bolstered Tokyo's trade
surplus, while a series of weak economic figures has touched off gloom in
the financial markets over the strength of Japan's economic recovery.
Japan said Thursday its economy shrank by a surprisingly large 2.9
percent in the April-June quarter. The figure was worse than the most
pessimistic of forecasts by economists.
Japan also announced its current account surplus, a broad measure of
trade, rose for the fourth consecutive month in July, jumping 62.7 percent
from a year earlier to 906.0 billion yen ( $7.6 billion ) .
The latest data may renew calls for the government to produce an
economic stimulus package to spur domestic demand, some analysts
said.
From a level of genuine concern, the ( Clinton ) administration is saying
show me the growth, said Richard Medley, president of Medley Investment
Group, a political advisory firm for institutional investors and hedge funds.
What we want them to do is to pay attention to their economy and the
pledges they made about a domestic demand-led recovery.
A hedge fund manager in Washington, who declined to be named, added:
The U.S. wants Japan to show up with something at the G7 meeting, but
is afraid Japan will show up with nothing. Whether the Japanese are
capable or willing to respond, who knows. But they're certainly feeling the
pressure.
--By ADAM ENTOUS, Reuters
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:48
JustALurker @Thoughts on Gold Stocks>(@Thoughts on Gold Stocks): - BEMA ( BGO ) will be a buy at 3-.2-5 FYI Approx. 90% of this stock is held by individuals. Somewhere between 9-11% is institutionally owned. Price held up rather good during the recent falloff of most other gold stocks. Final capitulation by weak hands? Time will tell.
Interesting note: Many jr gold stocks are now trading up to 85% off 52 week highs. Some are trading at 30% of book value! Can't help but nibble - 1000 shares here, a 1000 shares there. Heck, commission charges are as much as 10%.
Have found recently that limit orders below market have been filled! And this from a company like Scwabb who would normally not provide the fill UNLESS they could buy it at 1/8th or at a minimum 1/16th below your limit order. During the past 3 plus years in using them and trading gold stocks, they have only ONCE given me a fill below my bid. Times they are a changing. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:42
panda @>(@): - TED -- Good morning!
auroelf -- I refer back to the article in Barron's, or was it the WSJ, that did an article on the prevelance of Prozac on 'The Street'. It is true that there is a high, 'use rate' of Prozac on Wall Street.
NOW, as for those numbers! Gasoline was up 5.9% and home heating oil was up 1.8%. PPI energy prices UP 1.4%, July retail sales revised UP from .6% to .9%.
Yup, inflation is here, and it's taking it's time to work through the numbers... - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:41
Auric @Home>(@Home): -
auroelf--You may be onto something. If I am not mistaken, Prozac came on the market in late 87 or early 88, at the depths of the post crash gloom. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:37
vronsky BULL KILLERS: Over-valuation & Leverage>(BULL KILLERS: Over-valuation & Leverage): - Leverage is the vehicle that pushes markets beyond prudent levels. Once bull market reverses, leverage is the catalyst for panic selling. Short-interest level & NYSE Seats price bearish:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz911.html
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:36
auroelf incivility>(incivility): - Mike Sheller: Remember the old ditty, still valid:
The Bee is such a busy soul
She has no time for birth control.
And that is why in times like these
There are so many Sons of B s. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:32
Ted @ Retail Sales + PPI>(@ Retail Sales + PPI): - Retail sales up 0.4% ( excluding auto's up 0.3% PPI up .03% ( core rate up 0.1%....Retail a little weaker than expected....PPI as expected...Bond movin on up ...up 18 ticks...22 ticks...
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:32
auroelf diagnosis>(diagnosis): - panda: re: as all 'Bipolar' personalities do, they did an about face and bought back most of the stocks that they had sold off a few hours earlier. They ( fund managers ) must running low on Prozac or developing a tolerance to the stuff!
You may have hit upon another reason for the continued manic behavior of the US stock market. Prozac is contra-indicated for bipolar disease, as it enhances and prolongs the manic phase, thereby deepening the depressive phase that relentlessly follows. If, indeed, the bipolar fund managers are on Prozac, they will lead us to a very severe stock price depression when the manic stock phase passes. ( Lithium is the chemical of choice for bipolar patients, as it prevents the manic phase from developing, thereby eliminating the depression that would otherwise ensue. I have a sibling whose life depends upon this distinction. ) Could it be that the stock bubble is literally as well as figuratively Prozac-induced? ( No wonder LLY, the manufacturer of Prozac, has quadrupled in the last 4 years. ) - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:21
Auric @Home>(@Home): -
Morning everyone. German DAX off 3% last I checked. Hey, if the Y2K bug destroys civilization, will we still be able to access Kitco? - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:20
Ted @Kuston>(@Kuston): - Kuston ( 00:23 ) Thankx for the CONSTRUCTIVE input! Ten minutes to gov'ment #'s that could move the market....again- August retail sales est. up 0.7% and Aug. PPI est. up 0.3%....If these #'s are stronger than EXPECTED....
WATCH the fu$$ out!.... - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 08:17
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Looks like we are back on the air.....The prestigious Gold Fields Mineral Services Research Group in its Gold 97 update estimates Central Bank sales in the first half year at 220 tonnes,up 203% on the first half of 1996.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 05:11
Donald @Home>(@Home): -
Capital inflow to emerging markets likely
to decline in '97: IIF
WASHINGTON ( Nikkei ) - Flow of private-sector funds from
advanced economies into emerging markets will likely decline in 1997
for the first time in three years. Net inflow to Asia may drop 24.5% to
$107.1 billion this year in the wake of Thailand's currency crisis, the
International Institute of Finance ( IIF ) reported Thursday.
The group of major financial institutions in Japan, the U.S. and Europe
releases forecasts of capital flow into emerging markets twice a year.
Thursday's report said net inflow in 1997 may total $261.4 billion,
below the 1996 level of $281.3 billion.
Net inflow to Latin America is likely to drop as well.
The downturn in capital inflow to Asia, partly in reaction to continued
strong growth through 1996, may be attributable to recent turmoil in
currency markets there, the IIF noted. The flow of money to Asia will
tighten as investment in regional stocks drops and lending from banks in
advanced countries declines, it added.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 05:07
Mike Sheller Deep and civil thoughts appreciated>(Deep and civil thoughts appreciated): - SKYLARK and 6PAK: Would that all we meet in this life qualify as to the quality in a person you two clearly expect and philosophically demand. 6pak, you have cut to the quick of the problem in a dark and brooding, yet profoundly illuminating way. There are still plenty of good folks and fine minds to share with here. I prefer to pay them tribute with my attention, rather than be overly concerned about where I step , or what I step in, as I move around.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 05:04
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To all
Jse gold are OFF 2 points at 11:00 am, despite favorable
overnight gold action. However, short gold lease rate
rose from 2.46 to 2.81!!. One year rose from 2.81 to
2.99. Perhaps this means nothing.
If gold stock action leads gold action, then clearly
gold should come off, and the rapid increase in lease
rates is not relevant.
This is a nice test. Lets see what happens. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 04:57
Mike Sheller Next time somone slap me upside the head>(Next time somone slap me upside the head): - LGB: I should have known better. The gain on MOGN was not .5%, it was over 50%. In 5 days. First off, for someone who wants scientific facts, you didfn't really read or follow or understand a thing I said. Nor were you capable of following my astrological demonstration. You did not research my post, nor did you get the planets involved right. Not because you are unintelligent and incapable, but because you are flippant and adolescent. I come to Kitco for profit. The psychic profit of intelligent minds who share wit and camaraderie in mutual interests, even if they disagree. The mental profit of information and approaches I myself have not thought of and do not understand, expounded to me by others who have talents I lack. You profit me not. In any of those ways. There are simply some personalities I find a waste of time. And my time is precious to me. You are tiresome. Your repentence was a false one. You are not a substantial person. I waste no more time on you.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:55
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To All
With apologies to George Cole, I simply have never
found the adage Gold Stocks lead Gold usefull. Naturally,
I would expect to see CONFIRMATION by gold stocks FOLLOWING
gold movements closely - but not as a leading indicator.
For example, the gold price has just crossed its
30 day EMA, on good volume. However, The JSE gold index
at 950 odd is 50 points BELOW its EMA yesterday on trivial
volumn.
My experience is limited to RSA and Aussie stocks,
( as I feel the US stocks are simply way too expensive
in terms of earnings/share ) , and there is the question
of time lag relative to US gold action.
Nonetheless, I believe a better lead indicator for
gold action can be found.
In general terms, I simply do not see how or why the
gold indexes should move up without some preceeding
favorable action in gold. Unless of course gold stock
traders have the gift of second sight and KNOW that
gold will rise just after they buy their stock. I know
some guys like that but I dont think they are making
any money. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:55
6pak Skylark @ 01:59>(Skylark @ 01:59): - Very good points. Now there are two ( 2 ) , that may make a collective
difference. I do not want to prevent different views of an issue.
Yet, many issues are more of the chest thumping, school yard bully type.
Well hell, I never had a problem with a school yard bully. They attended
school like the rest of us, it was their individual right to do such,
yes, they always made sure that everyone knew they had rights. Well, some
would learn, and yes, some never learn. This type become suits, stay in
school until adults. Never making a contribution to community, looking
for all the angles, they are educated, and have rights, and demand such.
The first nations people respect their elders, and worship their wise
men. They are wise and gentle people. They know that stupid young, also can mean stupid old. Some people demand rights and respect, but, deny that they also, must accept responsible.
The type that will invite you out for a beer at a bar, and their mouth
will get you both into a fight, yet, this type never caused such fight.
You see, he was only making a point, and it was the other guy that caused
the fight. But, they exist, and little that can be done about them.
Jay Gould, said in 1886 I can Hire one half the working class to kill
the other half. Well, my take is, this type is for hire. Killing is
their game, they enjoy it, it is their individual constitutional right.
Good people give, and others take. This type expect, that good guys
finish last, they know not, what makes them different. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:51
EB Na-Na Time>(Na-Na Time): - LGB - I thought you said it was time for night-night for you. I know, your fingers are glued to that mouse and eyes glued to the Globex screen trading the mini s&p's...no calls and puetz yet though, eh?
Now get outta here and get some shut eye ;- )
away
eb - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:50
LGB U.S. Platinum>(U.S. Platinum): - U.S. mint director Philp Diehl, reports that U.S. mint sales figures for August reveal that new Platinum Proof U.S. Eagles are close to a sell out. The 4 coin set sold out within the first 30 days and is no longer available. Approx. 1,000 1 ounce single coins remain available as of 10/1/97. SOmehwat larger quantities remain available in the 1/2 ounce, 1/4 ounce and 1/10 ounce denominations, however, the mint expects a quick sell out.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:46
LGB Gold USM Proofs>(Gold USM Proofs): - 1997 Gold U.S. mint Proof 1/10 ounce coins have sold out, and are no longer available from the US mint. The 1 ounce coins, 1/2 ounce coins, and 1/4 ounce coins remain available. Mintages were reduced this year and were minted as follows; Proof gold 1 ounce, 45,000 minted, Proof gold 1/2 ounce, 38,000 minted, Proof gold 1/4 ounce 45,000 minted, Proof gold 1/10 ounce, 45,000 minted.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:42
LGB Counterfeit FRN's>(Counterfeit FRN's): - North Korea is allegedly producing counterfeit $100 denom. federal reserve notes according to a North Korean diplomat/defector according to an August 28 story run in the Tampa Tribune.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:36
LGB @Decorum, Gold Confiscation>(@Decorum, Gold Confiscation): - Gentlemen, in latest issue of a coin and PM weekly, an editorial critisized the offical Numismatic organizations for failing to provide a defense from Govt. confiscation of a 1933 legal tender Gold U.S. Double Eagle ( the last ever struck by U.S. mint ) , which surfaced this past year in the hands of a private investor who legally owned said coin. Secret Service confiscation was carried out under theory of the FDR's fiat decree of confiscation. An identical example of this coin was in the hands of the Smithsonian Institute in 1934.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:32
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Correct URL is:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/fsagx.jpg - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:29
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Here is FSAGX ( NAV ) for one year in dollars,
seems to show a bottoming process.
htpp://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/fsagx.jpg - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:28
LGB JapanMarket >(JapanMarket ): - Japan LDP exec says stocks fall worrying--Jiji
TOKYO, Sept 12 ( Reuter ) - The policy chief of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) , Taku Yamazaki,
said on Friday that a fall below 18,000 by the 225-share Nikkei average was ``worrying'' and that the economic
recovery would be the biggest problem for the party towards the end of the year, Jiji news agency reported.
Jiji quoted Yamazaki as saying in a lecture that it was difficult for the government to take fiscal steps but that he
wanted to cope through tax measures and land-use policy steps including reform of the land tax system.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:24
LGB In Response>(In Response): - TO assuage all the complainants.....hot off the wire
Dolerite dyke strike depresses Jubilee
PERTH, Sept 12 ( Reuter ) - Shares in nickel hopeful Jubilee Gold NL headed south on Friday after reporting what
analysts described as ambiguous results from the fourth hole at its Cosmos nickel preoject in Western Australia.
By 3.00 p.m. ( 0500 GMT ) , Jubilee shares were 34 cents lower at 76 cents, having been 22 cents lower at 88
cents just prior to the announcement.
Jubilee said drill hole JCD004 had drilled into the ultramafic host unit before encountering the same dolerite dyke
as intersected in the third hole, JDC003.
However, the company said the dykes were common throughout Western Australia's gold fields and it was likely
that mineralisation encountered above the dyke would continue beneath it with the proposition to be tested by
further drilling.
``The stock exchange announcement is ambiguous,'' said Morgan Stockbroking Ltd analyst Guy Le Page, adding
that Jubilee would need to find about 73,000 tonnes of nickel to justify its current market capitalisation.
``I think that's a long shot,'' he said.
The roller coaster ride for Jubilee shares started on September 1 when the company said it had ``spectacular''
drilling results that indicated a major nickel discovery at the 100 percent-owned project south of Mt Keith near
Leinster.
From a close of 19 cents on August 29, the last trading day prior to the first hole results, the explorer's shares
rocketed to high of A$1.521 in early trade on September 8, boosted by further ``spectacular'' results on
September 4 from its second drill hole which also intersected massive sulphides.
However, results out in late morning on September 8 from the third hole quickly dampened the frantic buying
enthusiasm with the market-disappointing news that it had not encountered any massive nickel sulphides. The
shares ended that day down 28 percent at A$1.04 with more than 12 million shares traded.
Since August 29, Jubilee turnover has been greater than 10 million shares on six out of the 10 trading days with a
lowest total of 2.74 million shares on September 9.
By 3.50 p.m. ( 0550 GMT ) , Jubilee shares were 32 cents down at 78 cents on turnover of 6.1 million shares.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:12
EB ............RJ............Plat............>(............RJ............Plat............): - What do you say to a powerful kick early on tomorrow. I must exit some positions manana~ and I want to do it before i leave for work ;- ) Fridays have been good to PL bull-runs...make me proud...make me one of the few...oh hell...make me a PILE-O-$$$
away...to insert the tilde...I give up..
eb - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:06
RJ ..... Rook Rookie .....>(..... Rook Rookie .....): -
Blind-ass-mimes, gave me the biggest laugh of the week. K to QB4, Oh, I'm sorry, too busy with darts are you?
Away…………..To molest your Queen
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 02:00
Jack Confusion>(Confusion): -
Gene: Was is it McAlvany or Ian McAvity the Canadian analyst that your post was directed about?
In any event, more power to them both.
Nomercy at 20:31, Bobby will probably save the market after a fall to DOW 6000, then the F.O.B's. will clean up along with LGB on the governmental push to DOW 10000. These guys control the world and soon it will turn on them. Not you LGB, but they have your mind. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 01:59
Skylark Reminiscing>(Reminiscing): - The posting on this site are supposedly for ideas relating to gold and precious metals. At one time when I first started lurking on this forum, there was a wealth of information being exchanged by regular posters who had substantial experience in the market and who conducted themselves with decorum and respect for another's opinion. It was stimulating and informative exchange of ideas and what made this forum a very special site to post and read, and which attracted others to it. Unfortunately, very few of these former regular posters now post, and this forum is changing rapidly to just another SI type chat site. I know not the reasons why these former posters are no longer posting but my guess is that this forum has gotten away from its basic tenants. In addition, it is not pleasent to take the time and effort to post and then be attacked for the effort in a discourteous and malicious manner. And without debate on the issues. Nor is it pleasant to read bickering posts without any substantive value. I realize this forum will change from time to time based on the nature of the contributors and what the majority desire to discuss, and that is the way it should be; and what I, only one of the collective, think or say here will make little difference in the end result. But, I thought I would mention it as an observation and acknowledge my profound regret for the change.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 01:43
6pak Bre-X @ Probe @ Nasdaq>(Bre-X @ Probe @ Nasdaq): - Friday, September 12, 1997
Probe into Bre-X filings
By SANDRA RUBIN
The Financial Post
Securities regulators in Canada and the U.S. are investigating whether Bre-X Minerals Ltd. filed fraudulent papers when applying for a listing on Nasdaq. If it did, it points to deliberate falsification by someone at the Canadian head office -- and suggests that tampering at the tiny
exploration firm was not limited to Indonesia.
False filings would be consistent with the deliberate fraud, the well-planned-out scheme that we've alleged in the litigation, Texas lawyer Paul Yetter said yesterday. And it would flow directly from the executives in Calgary and their advisers.
Yetter is leading a blockbuster class-action suit against Bre-X for angry investors stung in the $6-billion salting scandal.The listing document being reviewed came into regulators' hands in November 1995 when Bre-X applied to trade on Nasdaq.
The tiny exploration firm was required to file a copy of its main asset, a contract of work with the Indonesian government showing it had the right to explore for gold on the Busang property. But the version on file with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission is different in many places from the official one on file in Indonesia. It should be identical.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/FP/sep12_probeintob.html - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 01:36
RJ ..... $ .....>(..... $ .....): - Speculator @ 23:27
Here is another scenario:
Take the same 100K and leverage 500K
Buy some silver at, let's say 4.50.
Eat a spread and commission amounting to about .09 per ounce.
Eat .04 per ounce per month carry costs on the 400K leverage
Wait for silver to go to 5.35 by the end of the year.
Net .64 per ounce profit.
Pocket 64K net profit on your 100K investment.
That's at 5.35, let's see 8.00 in say 2 years? Net 237K after all costs.
That's what I do all day. Sounds a bit better, huh?
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 01:24
Explorer AMAX>(AMAX): -
Nelson; didn't Amax pay over $400 million to put that Alaskan project on line? Big interest payments seem to be in order for them; they have to mill at a rate of 35,000 ton per day and that's costly. At todays gold price, it should take some time to pay off on that mine.
As for Teryl; checked for the release and found nothing. Always best to read the news release script to make full sense. Two drill holes are sparse information. It seems that the first intersection hit mineralization averaging 0.03 opt from 1' to 65' and went to the depth you gave and the second hit mineralization averaging 0.04 opt from 125'to 175' and bottomed out at the depth given. These were probably vertical holes.
As far as shipping Teryl ore to the Amax Mill, it's impossible for me to say. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 01:11
RJ ..... Strad .....>(..... Strad .....): -
Sound moves in a wave to excite molecules which, in turn, excite the eardrum, all as you say. Sufficiently loud sounds - or big waves - are capable of visible effects on our surroundings, perhaps causing a mud puddle to ripple. Now lets remove all life from earth, no more observers. Does the puddle still ripple? How can it not? There would be no way to prove the effect happened, but we may proceed with reasonable certainty that the water will be affected.
If you remove the eyes, does all light cease? I am surprised that a man, who has such an intimate relationship with sound, would deny his music would thrill the rocks if there were none else to hear.
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:47
Dave Keffler @Responding to LGiBberish>(@Responding to LGiBberish): - LGB ( The Anus-man ) : Where do you get off calling everyone your son? If you really are an old fart as you say, please do us all a favor a perform a Kervorkian Maneuver on yourself!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:31
LGB @Kuston>(@Kuston): - Kuston, re your 00:23, when you find that private BB that is devoid of humor, life, color, interest, diversity, and discourse, will you warn me so I can avoid it? More to life than charts & graphs son, even in the world of high finance. OK, I PROMISE, that's it, no more wasted bandwidth tonight, buy Silver & Platinum!! ( U.S. Platinum Proofs almost sold out, only approx. 1,000 left at U.S. mint... )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:26
LGB Shultz>(Shultz): - Psssst Shultzy, plagirism is not considered de rigeur here unless you credit your sources. just a friendly reminder Prof. ( Since I saw your thoughts already expressed virtually word for word elsewhere ) . OK, night all, wouldn't want to start a new conflict. Time to reciprocate for the LBJ, or I'll be in trouble on the home front. ( LGB )
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:24
toughguy @camp david>(@camp david): - The obvious is at hand. Specialists are trying to unload long positions
at a difficult pace. The theory of urgent selling has continued to occur
in the last four trading sessions. Dipsters have provided up tick support
but the paper there buying will only be good for the latrine. They fail to
realize that the same paper there buying is available at office max for
$2.50 for 500 sheets. Unless you get 4.5% dividends per share and
book value close to the price per share, you just purchased something
worthless!
- Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:23
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com): - Yellow Jacket/Ted : The new posters here at Kitco have turned this
place into another SI thread. Kitco is now nothing more then a daily
skimming - sorry I missed your earlier requests. If anyone knows of
a private BB I'm pretty sure I could carry my own weight. Please
let me know.
Online brokers. I use National Discount Brokers.
http://www.ndb.com
To the best of my knowledge - they process online orders once a day
before the market opens. The updates to your account are always 1 day
delayed. I have tried to withdraw money from twice - the first time
I needed it to buy a car - I offered to pay extra for overnight. They
knew it was important I get the money - it took 6 weeks for me to get
it. The US snail mail date was 2 days earlier. The second time I
requested money I explained about the first instance and I had the
money in 2 days. The fills are good and the price is right.
THere is a new online broker out of Austin that does real time trading
with the SEOS system - I forget the name I have it somewhere. 50K
to open an account. I'm tempted to try them but haven't yet. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:22
LGB @Speculator>(@Speculator): - Speculator, re your 23:27. Listen son, they have some 20,000 Centavo coins in Mexico that they'd lOVE to sell you so's you could sit on em and get bank loans at face value down there!!
Now Spec., I'm not saying that wishing and hoping isn't fun, but listen, even a dunderhead banker can figure out that a 1 ounce silver coin from Canada and a 1 ounce silver coin from the states has the same intrinsic value as equity, regardless of face value. Furthermore, Canadian currency is devalued relative to U.S. currency so it isn't equal to U.S. $5.00 anyway, more like U.S. $4.00.
Finally, while there are reasons for silver to go up ( which I have already mentioned ) , there is certainly no guarantee that it will in our lifetimes, let alone the next few months! My own target is $6.00 to $7.00 in a year but that's based on a 200 million drop in above ground reserves this year, some mine closures, and increasing demand. People were giving strong rationales for gold to go up for past 2 years, here at this very site, and look what happened? TANKED BIG TIME!!
Keep dreaming though son, dreams are for the young. Cynicism for old fogy's like me. Don't get your hopes up high when you visit them bankers though!! - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:16
H. Schultz @England>(@England): -
Lurker:
Yes, I do follow world markets and have funds invested in the US market and therefor take a great deal of interest there ( US ) . I apologize for the remarks I made to that poster, but sometimes it's important to put people like that in their place. I am from the US and only temporarily residing in England on a one-year sabatical.
The US stock market is obviously at the most overvalued levels in history, but except in the long run, valuation does not control direction. This summer, the market has once again moved to the highest P/E multiple ( 23 ) ever applied to record earnings. When earnings have moved to a new high, the P/E has historically averaged just over 12. And once again, the dividend yield has reached the lowest yield in history ( 1.7% ) even correcting for the level of interest rates and inflation.
However, there will be little tendency for the market to revert toward higher yields until interest rates and other competing yields also trend higher. The brief uptrend of interest rates since mid-March was reversed in early June. Yields are compensation to investors for bearing risk, and the persistent decline in yields represents an historic decline in the risk-aversion of investors. This willingness to bear risk is driving demand for stock through mutual funds - stock which must be supplied by value investors, who sell as yields fall. I have zero doubt that over the next 5 years as a whole, Treasury bills will beat stocks. But while yield trends are favorable, investors should respect market action, with only a minimal put option position to defend against a catastrophic loss.
I see the Dow Jones at the 6500 level 12 months out. I see the XAU at about the 115 level 12 months out. I predict inflation will climb to about 4.25% a year out up from the present 2.5%. Real GDP should come in around 3.3% as compared with the current 4.1% but first a spike up to the 5% level. 30 year bond yields to 7.75% a year out.
Hope this helps. - Date: Fri Sep 12 1997 00:08
RJ ..... ! .....>(..... ! .....): - By the way Puetz, every solar eclipse from the beginning of time took place during a new moon, same as every lunar eclipse during that same period happened during a full moon, its the only time they ever happen. This means that every solar eclipse is followed by a full moon 14 and then 42 days later. Lets see…. 6 x 7 = 42, hey that's six weeks, isn't it? Wait I think you are on to something there!!!!! Oh yeah......Each Lunar eclipse is followed by a full moon exactly 28 days later. Where were you schooled?
Your recommendation on the calls is pretty funny. Didn't you once want me investigated for giving unlicensed investment advice? What will happen when all your pronouncements evaporate one by one? Will you just set new timetables? I suspect so. I would ask just one thing; no bets: Just something very simple: When your deadlines have passed and your predictions die of malnutrition, please devote as many words to your bad calls as you do for your wild speculations. On second thought, never mind, go buy a science book instead.
