- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:54
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - WW: You're pulling my leg right? By the way, I'm neither a liberal or a conservative.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:53
Mooney @Annoyed>(@Annoyed): - Bart and ALL - If Dumb Cuz at 23:37 is not the return of the moronic musings of Hepcat, I don't know what is!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - 6pak: You make an interesting point. And it really is not confined to the US only but the western world in general. Wherever envy and class distinction are used for political expediency, there will ultimately be violence between groups. All struggling for a piece of the diminishing pie. That has certainly been the case in the US for a very long time. We even experience those thoughts here, from time to time. In the end, any process that divides and separates one group from another will, in crisis, prove to have been a disasterous and shortsighted undertaking.
We should all be individuals with a stake in the whole but nothing in the current state of affairs is directed to that result. Instead, we have become a fractious collection of groups all of whom grovel with special pleadings from an increasingly arrogant and distant govt.
And, bravo on the history lessons. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:52
Jack All that political balony>(All that political balony): -
All this political bull made me press the wrong button. Today to make matters worst; damn it, a scab UPS truck almost drove me off the highway. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:49
WW @NE>(@NE): - IDT thats why there are ACLU LAWYERS my friend. People you conservatives hate!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:47
Jack Platinum/Palladium>(Platinum/Palladium): -
EB: You are probably right, the Rooskies are most likely
holding back to drive prices higher.
While never consistantly following those metals, I
remember seeing supply/demand figures over the years
showing always a bit more supply than demand. This
excess is/maybe in the hands of The Tiger Fund. The
Russian holdback may be awaiting Tiger's hopefully slow
disposal. Probably; this will be followed by a statement
that Russia's reserves are good for only X number of
years ( X ) being the variable that keeps the price up. The
present price for Palladium, if it holds is good for both
Stillwater and the Rooskies. Heard that Soros Interests
were looking at Norilisk ( probably spelled wrong ) . Wish
I knew what occured behind closed doors. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:45
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - WW: When I was thirteen one of my grade school chums happened upon a union meeting. It was going on in his garage where a couple of local union officials were meeting with his dad, another union official. They put a couple of slugs in him but their gun jammed so they were finishing him off with some garden utensils when my pal happened along. Since he could ID the union reps he had to disappear. Never heard from him again. Then when I was 21 working construction, us guys used to sit around on break talking about scab laborers who got killed ( for real ) and how we would kill scab laborers. They didn't know that I was scab labor. Somehow I never acquired the taste for the glory of the union movement. They're the same suits that run the Corporations, just belong to a different country club. Try putting your life on the line to survive and make a buck. It's an education.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:44
Mooney @One.More.Time>(@One.More.Time): - WW - Please, Please, PLEASE stop your inane tirade. Sit back, leave us alone, and enjoy life for about the next three years. If you then want to rant and rave and wave the union Flag, come back and let us know. Maybe by then some of the participants here will have matured and will heartily agree with your myopic view. In the meantime do some reading on the period of your history known as the Revolutionary War. Study the thoughts of your founding fathers. In other words - Put Brain into Gear Before Engaging Mouth! Sorry to sound insulting, but as Earl points out, you have such a narrow focus that you seem to disgard all the facts that are put before you without even a first thought, never mind a second. I can not put in in any better words than those of Earl himself, with which I totally agree.
I have concluded that ( the ) level of cognitive dissonance
on your part is simply nothing short of amazing. It's a form of
intellectual myopia issuing out of an almost missionary zeal. To the
point where rational discussion of alternate points of view will not
even be considered. Heaven forbid, that any of us should attempt to
change your mind. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:39
Joseph Stalin@commie.com>(Stalin@commie.com): - DA!! I have all the Nazi gold and I have
written calls against it. Nastarovia!!! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:39
SMARTWAD EARL>(EARL): - Earl, after regetfully reading your post 23:26 I'd really get some help and soon ! When was the last time you got hit on the head or fell out of bed ?
Your brain has turned to mush. When due you change costumes and turn into the Big Dummy anyway. Could it be when the clock strikes 12:00 midnight? - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:37
Dumb Cuz annoyed>(annoyed): - Mooney, just got the family tree out and you will never guess! Yep,
from now on its your dear cousin. Well, like they say, there is one
in every crowd ( family tree ) . Gold shaping up to take out 330. I'll
put my money on 332.50 by tomorrow. Yep, you guessed that one also.
Thats 3 32.5 0 - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:35
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Mooney: Ya gotta love it. Some days bear greater presents than others. It takes all kinds to make a world. Ain't none of 'em missin'. This evening is like pulling a lovely pizza out of the oven. Some it amy fall on the floor but its no matter. The remainder is still a delight.
Smartwad: I had my say. Address it directly if you disagree with my opinion. In the meantime I pass on to other things. Also the email is valid and preferred, as well. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:33
6pak Sooooooooooo@ Canada>(Sooooooooooo@ Canada): - Earl @ 23:04 : that was from the side door eh! : ) : ) : ) : )
WW: Jay Gould, Railroad Magnate, before the 1886 strike on his south-
western system. Said: I can hire one half the working class to *kill*
the other half
Soooo, not much has changed since 1886, as you no doubt know, the workers
worst enemy, is his fellow worker. That goes for citizens also, just
take a walk down your streets, was Jay Gould wrong
By the way, such is the case in Canada. Maybe *it* is in the water. : ) : ) - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:33
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley): - Earl..... Make that a Golden Streetsweeper!!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:32
Speed @yawn>(@yawn): - WW: Make up your mind. Either we are rich and cunning capitalists or poor, misguided, conservatives. Perhaps Mooney's last eclair knocked your spectacles askew or maybe the cognitive dissonance caused by your affinity for both gold and socialism is manifesting itself tonight! I for one am heeding Mr. Franklin's advice about early to bed. BBL
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:31
WW @NE>(@NE): - EARL I would never argue with your observation in the current money game which all of you rightists subscribe to. My view is of when it ends and grieviously dissappoints as is so hard to believe now. LETS TALK THEN!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:26
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: In the lighter vein for me but, probably not for you: You wrote: The quicker Labor Takes control Vis a vis the Corporate Mba idiots the better. ........... It must be source of infinite discouragement to you to realize that when Messr's ( sp ) Gephart, Kennedy, Bonior, Clinton, Certainly Gore, as well as Newt, and any other politico you care to name, are faced with a choice of listening to the proletariat or listening the moneyed interests, ....... the moneyed interests will win. Hands down. No contest. Always follow the money. Always. If the proletariat, does gain the ear of said magnificoes, it only be because they have the money. Principle? You would have to be mad to consider such. Absolutely mad.
And so it shall be until the very end of time. Put not, your faith in men, my friend. Gold and a streetsweeper are much more reliable. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:24
panda @final comment tonight>(@final comment tonight): - I was listening to a talk radio program a while ago ( tonight ) . One of the topics was the new money coming out. I heard one caller nail it right on the head. The money is a 'note', an IOU. Apparently, a previous caller, who identified himself as a liberal, said that the money, Just, 'floats', out there. The caller who mentioned the 'note' aspect of our currency, made reference to the liberal, and said that it was a scary comment that had been made. He also stated that gold is real. Gee, there might be something to this worthless gold after all!! Imagine that, on talk radio, in Boston. Wow.
Earl -- Check out Agnico Eagle ( AEM ) , what do you make of that 'gravestone' today? Trend reversal? Is it over for the gold stocks already Too many questions. Time to go to bed. Good night all.... - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:23
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Looks like Hepcat's dumb cousin - Not So Hepcat - has snuck in here.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:22
WW @NE>(@NE): - SPEED WE need the FOOD FIGHTS to hopefully educate you poor misguided conservatives.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:18
SMARTWAD EARL>(EARL): - Hmm, you sound like you got your Panties in a Wad Earl. Maybe it's you playing the Dummy. Who are you, really Earl A.K.A. Big Dummy or is it Little Dummy. You definitly have an idenity problem. I'd look into that Earl.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:15
fjl;sda'f; fjlsa>(fjlsa): - Jim Dines has suggested that the Norilsk mine is depleted and the only reason there has been no announcement is that owners want to keep the miners working even though the mines reserves are insufficient to pay the 2 yrs in back pay owed to the miners.
Dines offered this only as a theoretical possibility that in Russia today anything is possible. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:14
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Panda: And the masses shall cry out for a saviour. Yea and verily. So it shall be. ........ That's what I was alluding to earlier. A dictator who promises to deliver us from our problems. The heroic figure on a white horse. ..... Ross Perot in Mercedes ....Has a familiar historical ring; doesn't it? Something like: .... Peace. Peace in our time. ..... Or from boot camp: We here to hep ya. ( Yeah, sarge and no, I don't type )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:13
Mac Help@the-poor>(Help@the-poor): - ALL - I come from a very poor family and I always remember my father telling me - Son - every time you get a bit down on the rich - just remember that the poor can't help the poor and the only help that you can count on the government to provide will be at the cost of your freedom. I have been pulling for the rich ever since, I may never get rich, but if I don't give up all my freedom to the government in a hope of holding down the rich - I've got a chance!!!! Go go go go - all you wealthy cats - maybe someday I can join in!!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:10
Mooney @panda.and.WW>(@panda.and.WW): - panda - Moon will be full on 18th, therefore am hoping Prognosticator is correct and gold and silver drop off later this week so that we can buy on close on Friday for ENORMOUS gains next Mon,/Tues.
WW - You are alright too. Just your very decidedly one sided closed mind needs working on. Since you are obviously an American I would like to suggest to you that you study the thoughts of Benjamin Franklin. Believe me - He would heartily laugh at the ideas that you consider gospel. He would also advise you to tone down your rhetoric. ( Although its neither here nor there he also negotiated the loan from the King of France ( Louis 16th ) that assured your country's rebellious victory from the Mothercountry, but, of course, that doesn't prevent the final course from being good old American apple pie ) . And of course your Father's of the Revolution were mightily concerned with low tax rates, individual freedom, and relief from government interference.
And, oh yes, Mr. Progressive Lawyer, ( and Barb Streissand fan ) , your malignment of the 60's hippies, ( the decade of my youth ) , I find very apropos to your whole concept of painting all with the broad stroke of the brush. The youth of those times, who were so virulent Anti-Vietnam War, ( no offense veterans ) , which are so liberally clumped as hippies have since been proven to be correct, and I doubt if very many of them probably laugh at their 60's musings. In fact I think that most of them still believe in the ideals that they espoused in those chaotic times and are proud of the stand that they took against the military/industrial establishment of the time. Whether you will be so steadfast in your Flag-waving antics another 30 years from now remains to be seen. Please WW. Give it up. Go elsewhere with the politics and when here - TALK GOLD! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:10
WW @NE>(@NE): - I admit the workers arent perfect but if you look at the greed of the mgmt class ( many of whom are not to bright ) the uneducated working people have a right to be upset and demand their share. I admire the Japanese policy of limiting executive pay to a multiple of the lowest paid workers pay. They have guaranteed health care/college education and to a limited extent housing and food for all. They have the surplus and own our debt we have the deficit and are the debtor/ who is right Mr, Conservative wishful thinker. The quicker Labor Takes control Vis a vis the Corporate Mba idiots the better.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:04
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: In a lighter vein. You wrote: look back on this and laugh at the way you are thinking just as former hippies probably laugh at their 60's musings. .......... It has been said, that those who truly lived the 60s are now unable to remember them. ..... :- ) ) )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 23:02
panda @>(@): - nails -- Is it nails or nailz? Or are you a different poster? Just trying to keep the handles straight.
FWIW -- In a paper meltdown, we would all suffer greatly. History informs us that this would be the most dangerous period, for often, appears a white knight on a white horse which is often, anything but. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:56
Speed @FOOD FIGHT!!!>(@FOOD FIGHT!!!): - WW: You're wrong! I thought you were going to Havana?!
Earl: You're right! Throw another eclair at WW.
Cherokee: That's one! Got any more? : )
Wait a minute, this is Monday night. Does Bart know what's going on in here?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:55
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz): - O.K. I give up. It's raining here, and it's time to go to sleep.
Earl -- I never thought about that one. A goldbug who is a socialist and believes in a workers utopia. Gee, I always thought that specie was the cause of depressions, because it took away 'the necessary tools of policy' used by the government ( ? ) to 'correct' certain economic conditions. Hence, there was little or no long term inflation with specie, but there were frequent periods of economic 'displacement' which mightily inconvenienced the workers of the world. These periods were necessary to correct the inflationary periods brought on by whom ? ( Banks? )
How odd that a Social Democrat would hoard gold. An interesting dichotomy. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:55
WW @Ne>(@Ne): - Earl thanks for the honest comments. As to the economic advancement of working people in the 30s, this occured b/c of the labor organizing power growth due to the depression and the loss of power by Capital because of the Stk mkt collapse. Capital and Mgmt will lose power vis a vis labor in a financial paper downturn. Thus, politics will become more progressive and pro worker. Progressive policies will start to rule vis a vis the present status of CEO worship.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:54
Jack Platinum/Palladium>(Platinum/Palladium): -
EB: You are probably right, the Rooskies are most likely holding back to drive prices higher.
While never consistantly following those metals, I remember seeing supply/demand figures over the years showing always a bit more supply than demand. This excess is/maybe in the hands of The Tiger Fund. The Russian holdback may be awaiting Tiger's hopefully slow disposal. Probably; this will be followed by a statement that Russia's reserves are good for only X number of years ( X ) being the variable that keeps the price up. The present price for Palladium, if it holds is good for both Stillwater and the Rooskies. Heard that Soros Interests were looking at Norilisk ( probably spelled wrong ) . Wish I knew what occured behind closed doors. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:54
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley): - W.W..... Put yourself in the moron's shoes. You would fill your pockets
too!!! Do you condone what the pro athlete makes If you don't like what
position in society your in , then change it. I work in a manufacturing
plant here in Canada and have been there for 15 yrs. If and when I get tired of my job , I will get the education or trade I need to move on.
It was my mistake not to stay in school and nobody elses. Carey is just trying to fill his own pockets and save his job. UPS workers make $20 us
per/hr and I bet over half don't have a grade 10 education.
We have had the CAW banging at the doors for years , only because they
want to fill their pockets with my money.
I hope gold takes off so my retirement will come early!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:44
nails SQUELCH BUTTON SOON >(SQUELCH BUTTON SOON ): - I certainly hope that the squelch button happens soon !!!!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:43
WW @NE>(@NE): - As a Liberal ( goldbug ) I will admit that I subscribe to the principals of Democratic Socialism. Much like our friends in the UK and France Germany !
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:43
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: My comments here are delivered with the utmost respect. You have proven to be worthy, market related, contributor on many occasions. I have learned much from you.
On matters related to social issues and politics, it is another matter entirely. On such, I find your opinions distasteful in the extreme but that is my problem not yours. In terms of forming a judgement of your opinions, I have concluded that level of cognitive dissonance on your part is simply nothing short of amazing. It's a form of intellectual myopia issuing out of an almost missionary zeal. To the point where rational discussion of alternate points of view will not even be considered. Heaven forbid, that any of us should attempt to change your mind.
In terms of contradictions, it seems to me that leading the cheers for a financial collapes in order to bring about a worker's utopia, is not realistic. The most likely outcome of such an event is chaos, lower living standards for the poor and the disadvantaged and much worse form of government than we have now. .... And the wealthy will be even wealthier. Including Richard Gephart. ....... A disinterested opinion and still not worth a pitcher of warm spit, for discussion purposes.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:43
WW @NE>(@NE): - As a Liberal ( goldbug ) I will admit that I subscribe to the principals of Democratic Socialism. Much like our friends in the UK and France Germany !
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:40
panda @!>(@!): - Now I know it's a slow night! To be referenced not once, not twice, and even incorrectly posted for ( ? ) by Byron :- ) ) !
On the gold 'quote', the change in the spot gold price was more than the change in the Decembers futures price. What gives here? More importantly, which is the more important quote? It seems to me that the cash markets would be the most important. Then again, paper reigns supreme today. Thoughts anyone? - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:37
Roebear @Rainingparade>(@Rainingparade): - WW I now know to blame the liberals for the plumping of America, those gov't agencies who keep telling everybody to eat the carbs eat the carbs. And everybody keeps getting fatter because if you eat too many carbs you cannot burn fat. Believe it or not eating all fat Would make you lose weight because it forces your body into ketosis. Not that this extreme would be recommended. Read Barry Sears Enter the Zone; better health through eicosanoids. What are eicosanoids? The bodies super-powerful hormones whose discovery won a Nobel prize 1982. I hear that if we all eat a healthy diet that makes all our eicosanoids good ones then even gold will go up !: ) ) Sorry WW, you hit my nutrition button ; )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:33
Mooney @Earl>(@Earl): - Since Panda has declared it to be a slow night, I will take issue with your comment Jumpin' crap! and venture to proclaim that even Bruce Wayne and his ward never stooped to such vulgar expletives!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:33
panda @>(@): - Does anyone here have preference for following the spot gold price or the front month futures contract? It seems that the paper price of gold ( futures ) is the controlling element for the recent past ( 12-18 months ) . Does anyone know of a period when the spot price ( cash ) drove the futures?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:31
Byron @ Ooops:>(@ Ooops:): - Last quote was me not Panda.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:31
WW @NE>(@NE): - TED AND MOONEY: you guys are alright but you dont even recognize how you are caught up in this mania and capital worship even though you think you are iconoclastic goldbugs. Look where the struggle is developing. You are both smart and in a few years will be able, with hindsight, look back on this and laugh at the way you are thinking just as former hippies probably laugh at their 60's musings.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:29
Panda: Looking For Action:>(Looking For Action:): - Panda: If your looking for some action, suggest a review of late last Saturday night. The library was closed so I missed all the fun. : (
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:27
cherokee @ionic-interference>(@ionic-interference): - kev & earl-----
the isp and url problems that are so wide-spread can
be attributed to SOLar hyperactivity ( electro-magnetic-flux ) .
remember the ripple effect i alluded to many weeks ago?
hello......the waves ( emf ) take some time to make their
presence felt. i don't think the us navy has anything
to worry about: ) -- ( speed )
my system has been plauged with slow load, no load,
and everything imaginable for the last two months.
i did not get your e-mail kev. earl, i've sent you
several in the last month along with some others
who have not responded. it must be a hit and miss situation
that works quite in-frequently. a new modem is in the
works.
the e-mail address is still the same: cherokee@hal-pc.org
got a letter from the broker today ( ira epstein ) with a
new trade-able index! the dow average index is now
available for me to short!!!! perfect timing.
gotta go count some smoke signals and recharge the ssm
for a run to ganymede. flux has pissed chaos off and
they are trying to out-do each other. the bottom IS in,
along with the top. imnsho--------------!; ) speed --
got a chinese silkworm comin at ya-------------
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:23
panda @?>(@?): - Is the moon full or something?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:22
Mooney @WW.and.Stradmeister>(@WW.and.Stradmeister): - WW - Please find another forum for your soap opera. With a family of five I REALLY can't afford the cost of all the tissue you are causing me to purchase. Besides, have you ever, for a moment, even considered all the ideas that everyone else has put in your face for the last six months? Earl's latest only being a last feeble attempt at trying to speak reason to the totally brainwashed. viz ...the system of
social welfare, as we have known it, has contributed much to our
continuing social problems. A system that has destroyed individual
dignity and self worth is as culpable, in the decline of the social
fabric, as all the self serving CEOs in North America combined.
Please WW, talk gold. Unprovable theories about the disintegration of your Great Society, while interesting, will not be solved here, and belong at another forum, if not in the history books, along with the why and wherefore of the Fall of Rome.
BTW - Don't sell the Strad Strad, just because the U.S.A. is at the end of its hiatus and you perceive that you need more money ( someone must fiddle when Washington burns ) . I know ( perceive ) that with a little extra effort you can make scads more filthly lucre than you are pulling in now. Actually, I started to give you that same message last night but it got lost in the ether. Although not on a comparable scale, I sold my 60's solid wood body Stratocaster with custom case along with my COMPLETE Spidey collection in the early 70's just to make ends meet for my young family. I have been regreting both decisions ever since. ( And I can't even play guitar! ) . ( Although I can read ) . - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:21
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Smartwad: Jumpin' crap! That post of your's is even more irritating on the second read.
You wrote: or is this the place I really think it is ! Please, some of you seem to be all right so get on with it. The ones that are not please remove .... ...... On behalf of those here on this site, some of ( whom ) seem to be alright and others of us who may well not be alright, I apologize profusely for sullying your delicate senses.
It's also an unfortunate oversight on our part, I suppose, in that we have not posted regular feeding hours for those with a need to be spoon fed information on a regular basis. For the moment however, all feeding utensils have been washed dried and put away for the day. Sorry 'bout that. In the meantime, feel free to continue lurking, it's certain to be your larger contribution. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:21
panda @slow night>(@slow night): - Slow night here at Kitco, eh?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:18
Savage (?): - D.A.: D.A. why do you prescribe only BUYING ( commodities ) ? I'm sure that you have already stated why, but I must have missed it. Thank You.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:18
WW @THE OBVIOUS WAKE-UP>(@THE OBVIOUS WAKE-UP): - Earl:: Saying that govt economic support to families breaks them up is like saying eating pure fat causes one to lose weight. The arguments you make are those of the elite who want to develop a Calvinist view that they are privileged and that anyone who does not rise to their level is less worthy. This will never happen as 80 % of the rich didnt earn their privilege. The goal of the elite is to try to convince the people to emaciate the SS and medicare they paid for so that the US currency and financial mkts will not cause a disruptive depression which would erode their power. Remember if US loses Reserve Currency status there will be big time financial losses in the US. THINK!!!!Times will then change for the better!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 22:02
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Smartwad: Hmmmmmm? Try as I might, I was unable to locate, even one, comment from the regular contributors, that might reinforce your ill considered opinion. This forum is generally dedicated to dispelling the ignorance that resides in us all. That's why we're here.
For those who already know it all, there are more fulfilling places to be. And they should take their bad manners with them. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 21:55
Byron @ For What It's Worth Dept:>(@ For What It's Worth Dept:): - Interesting. Just checked out Bart's Advertisement Site above. Quite a list of new ads lately. Maybe the bottom is really in.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 21:46
Byron @ Recycle Bin:>(@ Recycle Bin:): - Donald: Problem with politicians, as like underwear, once their cleaned out they get recycled. : )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 21:36
Schippi schippi@gepcities.com>(schippi@gepcities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
UP, UP and Away! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 21:22
SMARTWAD BIG DUMMY>(BIG DUMMY): - With names like BIG DUMMY, no wonder this is a place for the wantabee's that need attention because your gut hangs out over your you know what. Can't you people be a little more creative or is this the place I really think it is ! Please, some of you seem to be all right so get on with it. The ones that are not please remove yourself, because your making the rest of us look like you. You really sound as DUMB as your handle and that's stupidity and all of the above. Who ever it is get out!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 21:07
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)>(Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)): - JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: First, FRB Report warned in Sept 1995 when DOW was 4700, then Greenspan alerted all with DOW about 6000! Now the DOW tops 8300!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle811.html
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 21:07
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: You remain in rare form. Lubricated with oil of vitriol. ...... My heart really isn't in this but maybe it would a good idea to take a moment, reduce the level of indignation and consider the possibility that other factors may be a work here as well. That the system of social welfare, as we have known it, has contributed much to our continuing social problems. A system that has destroyed individual dignity and self worth is as culpable, in the decline of the social fabric, as all the self serving CEOs in North America combined. ............ But that's just a disinterested opinion. For discussion purposes, it ain't worth a pitcher of warm spit.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 20:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Asia trading. Gold down 90c, silver down 2c, Nikkei up 191
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 20:51
WW @Teamsters>(@Teamsters): - The problem with UPS and other companies is that profits are setting records and no sharing with the working people ie screw them. This causes family break ups alcohol and drug abuse for which WE pay for so that the CEOs can score bigger profits and payolla while society which allows these morons to profit pays for their violence against home and family. The kids that become delinquents b/c of CEO policy will not attack where THEY live but where we live!! Corp Mgmt in this country is the definition of godless immorality. THEY SHOULD START taking ( my favorite right wing cover term ) personal responsibility for the problems they are causing in society and govt which has provided them with the opportunity to profit enormously. GO Teamsters!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 20:23
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Kev: Amazing what happens when you turn the power on. .... I have one from you but none from Cherokee. Check the URL you have stored. My ISP had a beef with some guys with deeper pockets. Rather than fight over the name they added net to the original. ...... It wasn't as if the URL was long enough to begin with.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 20:20
vronsky WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Part - II>(WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Part - II): -
The devil was not in the gold window. The devil was in the overvalued
dollar. Tlaga walks us through dollar’s declining purchasing power &
role of gold from 1920-1973:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 20:17
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hi Byron: Thanks. I found it.
Quote for you: Underwear and politicians should be changed often; and for the same reason.
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 20:12
A Lurker @Correlation>(@Correlation): - Green Thumb re Correlation of Gold and Cannabis: I have read reports that the importation AND use of heroin has risen 100's of percent during the last couple years. This closely corresponds to the increase of imports from China. The balance of trade figures most certainly do not include these illegal imports. Bet you could double the numbers reported for a more accurate reading.
Seems that the USA exports our inflationary dollars at the expense of our children and thier future. The war on drugs must continue, in order to keep prices high, otherwise these exported dollars will remain in the USA and cause inflationary pressures. This would not be good for interest rates and bonds. Funny how it almost seems as if they need to keep illegal drugs illegal & expensive.
Interest rates tied to drugs, who would of thought. I can just hear it now coming from CNBC: Deflationary prices in illigal drugs cause inflationary concerns on Wallstreet - Stock Market Crashes, film at 11. But then again they could put the spin on it and say Look! Another $60 to $80 billion per year can now be allocated to the stock market. DJIA at 12,000 and rising, we ARE truly in a new era...
JMK - In the end not only am I dead but so are your children - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:43
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 24.50, still on the downside of a spike, trending down.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:42
Byron @The Public Library>(@The Public Library): - Donald:
Re:your 19:14. Bill Buckner also has charts showing the price of gold in i believe 5 different currencies. http://www.the-privateer.com - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:35
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - 2 - Not saying what you implied I was saying. Point of fact is that the price of Gold was pegged at U.S. $35 from mid-30's until early 70's, by which time the whole world knew that it was substantially undervalued. I believe that France and a few other countries started trying to cash in U.S. dollars for gold and this caused the U.S. to revoke its previous policy of allowing such redemptions. Within a short time frame Nixon had to let gold run free. This is why you can not use the 1970 $35 as a base year. Probably about $200 in 1975 is more realistic. Happy Trails. :- )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:14
Mooney @The.Perfect.Crime>(@The.Perfect.Crime): - Warning to all would be Rapists, Murders, and Low Lifes in general.
AP reported on or about Aug. 6-7 that the alleged murderer of about five people, ( including world reknowned designer Gianni Versace and real estate developer Lee Miglin ) , helped in his own identification when he pawned a gold coin on July 7 in Miami Beach. He then left a tell-tale FINGERPRINT. He had earlier stolen the gold coin from Miglin along with several thousand dollars worth of his clothing and his Lexus. Double Moral here. Moral #1 - Honest people - Don't encourage thieves and murderers to stalk you by buying fancy Japanese cars ( corrolary - don't aid the destruction of the American economy by purchasing said vehicles. - ref. Economics 101 ) .
Moral # 2 - Low Lifes - Don't steal gold coins. It doesn't pay in the end. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:14
Donald @Home>(@Home): - 2: That is a nice piece of work ( IRG ) I have printed it out and want to think about it. Last night, speaking with DJ about this subject, I suggested that gold is still searching for its right price since being set free. It is trying to find out how much paper money is out there. Do you agree? If so, it would seem that $328 is too high from an American point of view by looking at your calculations.
Another factor. I often make the mistake of just thinking of gold from an American point of view. I made that error last night talking with DJ. In reality gold is universal, the only true international money. Therefore its price reflects an aggregate of all the worlds currencies, all the mistakes made by all the governments collectively. Do you see my point? Thais are buying gold for Thai reasons, Koreans are buying for Korean reasons etc. All those market decisions are factored into the dollar price. This gold riddle is a difficult one to crack but you are thinking the right way. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:12
Kev @whoops>(@whoops): - Earl I didnt mean to send ya money, but ya can keep it all the same : )
$=4, capn speak - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:09
kev @dam*&%$#@^%)blastedcomputergimmeahammer>(@dam*&%$#@^%)blastedcomputergimmeahammer): - Earl I sent $ mails to ya in the past 5 days, Cherokee sent ya 3.
I'm gonna try againBBL: ) 88 - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:08
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Thought For The Day ( or any day ) : )
T.S. Eliot
I am not myself very much concerned with the question of influence, or with those publicists who have impressed their names upon the public by catching the morning tide, and rowing very fast in the direction in which the current was flowing; but rather, that there should always be a few writers pre-occupied in penetrating to the core of the matter, in trying to arrive at the truth and set it forth, without too much hope, without ambition to alter the immediate course of affairs, and without being downcast or defeated when nothing appears to ensue.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 19:07
Miro Roebear @StockMarketSummary>(Roebear @StockMarketSummary): - Roebear: I sure hope Dow will drop to a misquoted price in paragraph
two and stay there ;- ) Unfortunately Dow did not drop to 7068. The low
price for today was 7968. 7068 should send gold through the roof ;- ) - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 18:59
2 @mooney>(@mooney): - A good point, one to which I am not equipped to respond. I do not understand how gold could be undervalued in 1970 - wasn't it traded in the international market in dollars? Are you saying that denial of access to those markets by US citizens had the effect of undervaluation?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 18:57
Roebear @StockMarketSummary>(@StockMarketSummary): - Here's a report with shades of things to come in paragraph two !: ) )
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970811/business/stories/stocks_16.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 18:51
NOT VONNEGUT VONNEGUT COMMENTS ON INTERNET HOAX>(VONNEGUT COMMENTS ON INTERNET HOAX): - VONNEGUT COMMENTS ON INTERNET HOAX
What conclusion is drawn by novelist Kurt Vonnegut about the Internet hoax falsely attributing to him a speech he hadn't written or delivered? Some jerk infected the Internet with an outright lie. It shows how easy it is to do and how credulous people are. The MIT commencement address that Vonnegut never gave was actually an essay written by Chicago Tribune columnist Mary Schmich ( whom Vonnegut has praised ) . The essay began: Ladies and gentlemen of the class of 1997: Wear sunscreen.'' The origins and purpose of the hoax have not yet come to light. ( AP 7 Aug 97 )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 18:39
Mooney @2>(@2): - 2 - Excellent analysis. What your figures and thoughts are missing is the fact that the 1970 gold price was equal to that of 1935 ( approx. ) and that, in reality, it was severely undervalued in 1970. Was there really NO inflation in the 40's, 50,s and 60's? A good way to check would be to go to a local library and call up on microfiche newspaper ads from those decades and compare the price of staples. ( Bread, milk, hamburger, hot dogs, chocolate bars, soap, toothpaste, comic books, papier de toilet, etc ) . How about using a basket of goods from 1925 and 1935 and then comparing that figure with 1970 and 1997. Sound fair enough?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 18:38
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Kev: Nothing in the mail. .... Your computer turned on ... :- ) ) ) ) .... Buy stop is still in place for 240 corn.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 18:23
2 IRG (inflation-relative-to-gold)>(IRG (inflation-relative-to-gold)): - The IRG is 3.1% per year overall for the post-gold standard period. It also corresponds to the inflation-adjusted average annual return on gold held since the price was last $35/oz.
This is calculated as follows: CPI differential 1970-1997 is 4.134.
4.134 * $35 ( 1970 gold price ) = $144.69.
Inflation-adjusted increase in the price of gold since 1970 is therefore
$328.60 ( today's close ) / $144.69 = 2.27.
The annual rate of inflation that causes an increase of a factor of 2.27 in 27 years is 3.1%.
Thus holding gold since it was effectively de-linked from paper in the early 70s ( that is, when the price started climbing above $35 ) has had an effective annual rate of return of 3.1%.
I prefer to think of the value of gold as a constant, and the value of paper varying with respect to gold. From that perspective, we can say the the true rate of inflation - the creeping worthlessness of paper money as measured by the amount of it required to obtain a fixed amount of gold on the open market - has averaged 3.1% over the last 27 years. In other words, the dollar, as measured by its ability to purchase gold, has been dropping at that rate.
The CPI would say that the average annual rate of inflation over the past 27 years has been 5.4%.
Expressed in other terms, compared to 27 years ago, a dollar gets one-fourth the amount of goods and services, and one-tenth the gold.
An ounce of gold gets 2.27 times as much in goods and services as it did then.
This does not quite jive with the good suit theory. Based on these calculations, over time, an ounce of gold gets a suit that is 3.1% better than the suit it could get last year.
Scrutiny of these calculations is welcome.
Respectfully submitted,
2
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 17:37
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Gerard Baker: Alan Greenspan, master of
the universe
MONDAY AUGUST 11 1997
Gerard Baker considers the reputation of the chairman of the Federal
Reserve Board
When Mr Alan Greenspan was appointed to the chairmanship of the US
Federal Reserve Board 10 years ago today, he set out his vision of the
future.
His term of office, he said with heavy irony, would be a period marked by
the familiar economic landmarks of years past: Inflation, which always
stays put; the stock market, which is always a bull; the dollar, which is
always stable; interest rates which always stay low; and employment,
which always stays high.
To general laughter he dedicated his term of office to those who have the
capability of repealing the laws of arithmetic.
Ten years later, some people are beginning to wonder whether Mr
Greenspan might not have pulled off just such a feat. As he prepares to
embark on his second decade in the chairmanship, the US economy has
seldom been in better shape. Virtually all the ambitions he breezily laid out
10 years ago have been fulfilled.
Economists and politicians argue heatedly about what might have been
responsible for this benign state of affairs. They differ over the extent to
which the globalisation of business, improvements in new technology or
even the end of the cold war might have played a part. And they differ
over how long the good times will last. But few dissent from the
proposition that, whatever the state of the US economy, Mr Greenspan's
role in managing it has been critical.
We had thought about just giving you a standing ovation and saying let's
go home, one senator told him last month when he appeared before
Congress to give his half-yearly testimony on the state of the economy. A
national treasure is how another senator has described him.
It is this kind of tribute that has ensured Mr Greenspan a place in the
pantheon of the world's central bankers. But what precisely has he done to
deserve the plaudits? And, as he contemplates several more years in the
job, can he continue to enjoy such a strong reputation?
There have been, broadly, two distinct phases to the Greenspan years.
Both demonstrate, in different ways, the centrality of the Fed's role in US
economic performance of the past decade.
The first, between 1987 and 1992, was a time of almost continuous crisis
management as the domestic US economy reeled from stock market crash
to recession to banking crisis. The second period, beginning in 1992, has
been one of greater stability, though arguably it has posed even more of a
test for the chairman. In both periods Mr Greenspan came under heavy
fire.
His first term could hardly have got off to a worse start. Within two
months, the Fed's carefully plotted course for reducing inflation was torn
up by the stock market crash of October 1987. The Fed had been
gradually raising interest rates in the months before the crash, but was
forced into a U-turn by the events of that October. Its policy-making open
market committee had to deal with the overriding fear that the fall in the
stock market would reduce demand in the real economy as investors
retrenched because their wealth had been sharply reduced. It loosened
monetary policy in late 1987.
Those fears proved groundless, but it was too late. Inflation accelerated in
1988, forcing the Fed to slam the brakes on again.
He was criticised for this in hindsight. But at the time, most analysts agreed
that Mr Greenspan and his colleagues made the right decision. They had
no choice but to ease policy in spite of the inflation spike. For all the
criticism, he did exactly what he was supposed to do after the '87 crash,
says Mr David Hale, economist at Zurich Kemper, the investment
advisers. He pumped liquidity into the system and helped avoid a
disaster.
The next crisis Mr Greenspan faced came on less suddenly, but presented
even greater difficulties. At the end of the 1980s, the over-extended US
economy began to face serious financial difficulties. Reckless lending
policies had begun to bring down hundreds of savings and loans
institutions. Speculative investment in property had encouraged dubious
lending practices even by the most respectable of banks.
When property prices began to fall, thousands more financial institutions
collapsed. By 1990, the contraction had turned into a fierce recession, as
banks stopped lending. A full-scale credit crunch was under way.
The Fed's critics argue that Mr Greenspan reacted too slowly to the
development, perhaps because it was still trying to recover from the
post-1987 inflation. The central bank began steadily cutting interest rates in
1990, but the process was painfully slow and did not stop the unfolding
financial crisis.
Nibbling around the edges, was how Mr James Tobin, the economist
described the policy. Under intense political and financial pressure Mr
Greenspan at last agreed in December 1991 to cut short-term rates by a
full percentage point - an unusually large reduction - in a belated effort to
bale out the banking system.
Mr Greenspan's defenders say the sharp cuts in interest rates around this
time may have been late, but they were enough to stop the rot. And it is
true that the banking system had largely overcome the crisis within a few
years. But it had been a close-run thing. And President Bush and his
closest colleagues never quite forgave Mr Greenspan for failing to act
sooner in a way that might have saved their political skins.
Having negotiated what he described as these 50 mile per hour
headwinds Mr Greenspan entered the second phase of his chairmanship,
the start of what many regard as his finest hour.
The main and most difficult task for any central bank is to pursue a
monetary policy which maintains growth without allowing inflation to get
out of control. Since economies generally veer between inflationary and
deflationary pressures, this means the authorities must adjust interest rates
not only by the right amount but, crucially, at the right time to head off
emerging booms or busts. The difficulty is that interest rates have a lag of a
couple of years before they have their full effect.
Since the expansion got fully under way in 1992, the Fed can claim some
credit for it. The bank's most important achievement, though, came in
1994, when, with only slim evidence of early inflationary pressures, it
gradually tightened policy, acting pre-emptively to forestall the risk of a
surge in prices.
In the event, the Fed doubled interest rates in a year. The timing was
precise. By 1995, inflationary pressures had subsided almost as soon as
they had begun and the Fed was able to cut rates again. Economists
attribute this success principally to Mr Greenspan's judgment.
He has a remarkable grasp of the detail of the economy, says one former
member of the Fed's Board of Governors. That enables him to spot
dangers almost the moment before they appear.
But Mr Greenspan is no inflation nutter. In the past few months, the Fed
has abstained from raising interest rates.
And Mr Greenspan has come closer than central bankers usually permit
themselves to endorsing an optimistic view of the economy. This view
holds that US performance has fundamentally improved in the 1990s in a
way that enables the economy to grow faster without an acceleration of
inflation. It is shared by a number of economists, though not by all of Mr
Greenspan's colleagues at the Fed.
The chairman is not a full convert to this New Paradigm school of
economic thought, but he has shown himself to be a pragmatist: he is willing
to admit the possibility that the foundations of monetary policy might have
shifted in recent years.
As he put it in his most recent testimony to Congress: Important pieces of
information, while just suggestive at this point, could be read as indicating
basic improvements in the longer-term efficiency of our economy. The
Federal Reserve has been aware of this possibility . . . and has operated
with a view to supplying adequate liquidity to allow the economy to reach
its highest potential.
Some believe Mr Greenspan's toughest challenge could yet be to come: in
the form of turmoil in the equity markets.
Last December, he famously wondered aloud whether equity prices might
have become overvalued, driven higher by the irrational exuberance.
After a brief correction, stock prices resumed their upward flight as
investors decided they disagreed with the Fed chairman.
This presents Mr Greenspan with a problem. If stock prices are indeed
overvalued, he knows that a downturn will follow. Should he try to forestall
the risk by gently deflating the market in advance? That might seems
prudent - but what if the market is not overvalued? The Fed could lose
credibility rapidly if Mr Greenspan's warnings fall on deaf ears.
As Mr Hale remarks: There is still plenty of room for his reputation to
collapse. If we get a market crash or some other wreck, he could yet be in
for a roasting. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 17:33
nomercy Thainland-Employers unable to remit-short of cash>(Thainland-Employers unable to remit-short of cash): - Employers short of
cash to pay
provident funds
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/1108_busi01.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 17:31
kev kevin56@worldnet.att.net>(kevin56@worldnet.att.net): - Hi gang, anyone going to the CBOT seminar at 300pm on Aug 26 in NYC at Waldorf Hotel?
Me & wife are going ( live in north Jersey )
Kev,
Ps Earl you get my mail ?
Cherokee sent you a couple too. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 17:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Germany: Bundesbank set for new inflation
fight
MONDAY AUGUST 11 1997
By Andrew Fisher in Frankfurt
Inflation is threatening to raise its head again in Germany - though the signs
are ever so faint, as yet - and the Bundesbank is making preparations to
keep it at bay by raising interest rates.
But when and by how much remain uncertain. A small move could come
this week with the next securities repurchase ( repo ) tender. Or it could be
delayed until August 21 - the next council meeting - or later. By setting a
fixed repo rate for only two weeks of the bank's four-week summer break,
the Bundesbank itself began the speculation.
Since this is now the third week, the guessing game is proceeding in
earnest. Bundesbank-watching is back in vogue after a long period of
unchanged interest rates. The repo, through which the bank influences the
money market, has been fixed at 3 per cent for the past year.
Although economists are divided on whether the Bundesbank will act just
yet, they do not expect a rise in the discount and Lombard rates - now 2.5
per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively - for some time. Attention is
concentrated on the repo as the most likely advance weapon in the
Bundesbank's fight against inflation. A switch to a variable rate tender
tomorrow would allow the repo to edge up to perhaps 3.2 per cent initially
and 3.5 per cent by year-end.
Bundesbank anxieties have been reawakened by the steep rise in the
dollar, though it eased on Friday to around DM1.85. Since last August, the
D-Mark has fallen 25 per cent against the US currency. This has helped
exporters, propelling German shares to record levels, but also lifted import
prices.
So far, these have not fed into inflation. But Mr Eckhard Schulte,
economist with IBJ Research in Frankfurt, reckons rising producer prices
( up 1.4 per cent in June over the previous year ) and import prices ( up 3.5
per cent ) will soon affect consumer prices as well. Thus inflation could
exceed 2 per cent, a level which sets off alarm bells, at the central bank, in
the autumn.
This concern is certainly shared by Mr Otmar Issing, a senior director of
the Bundesbank. He has warned about price trends, saying in a weekend
interview these were clearly moving in the wrong direction.
He told Börsenzeitung, a financial daily, that monetary conditions had
eased markedly as a result of the D-Mark's decline. While not indicating
when rates might rise, he made clear the bank would not be held back by
the approach of the single currency or the state of the economy.
In fact, Mr Issing suggested the opposite. Action now against inflation
could help bolster the euro, due to be introduced in 1999. The European
central bank will have to pick up the pieces, if we make mistakes today in
our stability-oriented policies.
He also overrode fears that even minor rate rises could unsettle economic
recovery by saying high unemployment was largely a structural problem.
As for the growth outlook, he saw signs that domestic demand was picking
up to accompany the boom in exports.
Some economists feel Mr Issing is over-emphasising the inflation demon.
Marginal rate rises would do little to bring down the US currency, says Mr
Stefan Schneider of Paribas Capital Markets.
It should stay calm and accept a temporary overshooting of the dollar.
Some of Mr Issing's colleagues agree. Mr Ernst Welteke, head of the
regional central bank of the state of Hesse and a Bundesbank council
member, says a rise in rates would not be advisable with the jobless rate
so high. But Mr Issing is not easily dissuaded. If rates do not change this
week, a rise is on the cards soon.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 16:30
bw Intrest rates:>(Intrest rates:): - There have to be some very sweaty hands in dc these days. With the goldilocks economy stock market, expectations are so high there is little room for disappoitment. With a twenty trillion or so debt load real intrest rates must remain very low. And above all confidence in the system must be maintained ( the reason for the cover up of flight 800 )
A real rate of 5% would amount to about one quarter of gnp. Could the economy carry that? What might cause people to demand a real rate of 5% or greater? A little fear might. Fear that some of that debt may not be repaid. Foreign selling of a few hundred billion of our tbonds might also cause a rise in real rates. A good stiff stock market down draft, say something about 1000 dow points down in a single week might do it. But the one they worry about the most, the one they have conspired and colluded so successfully, over the last seventeen years to prevent, is a gold price rising in excess of the phony cpi. Alas sad for the powers tasked with keeping the lid on, that is exactly what we will see once their big friends are done buying their fill of the gold market. In fact there is a possibility all these events may transpire at about the same time, kind of like the opposite of goldilocks, call it a nightmare. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 16:25
Miro To Big Dummy>(To Big Dummy): - Hey Big Dummy ;- ) , Sorry for my misleading post. It was supposed to be
Gold keeping on pretty steady course not stocks .. :- (
That's what you get trying to peak at Kitco during busy day on my regular
job. Well, I am bull and long on gold ( though I still have some money in stocks ) - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 16:18
2 328.60 approximately>(328.60 approximately): - Best close since Dark Thursday ( July 3 ) .
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 16:14
pyramid another hot day>(another hot day): - My recollection is GS and GB have equity stakes in NEM and ABX, respectively. Does anyone know how much ?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 16:04
EB I am a PIG...>(I am a PIG...): - now, now miro and eeeeddiiiiiooott...let's be nice.
Jack - I can understand your concern w/ plat. It is thin enough as it is without the Rooskies throwing curves. They are a very sly bunch of cats...and continue to wait for favorable pricing...maybe. I do think, however, that their supply has dwindled and they are experiencing a wide variety of troubles with respect to pulling more out of the ground. RJ/MikeS are correct ( imho ) in calling for 430/500+ range for 1-2 yrs.
Review some of that Disney/DJ stuff. It is informative.
Thins the blood, huh? :-$
away
eb - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:50
Explorer Charlton>(Charlton): -
Many of the well known miners can't make decent profits, even at $400 gold, which thus far; is a power elite no/no.
This is further clouded by the large number of shares that many of them have - but it makes losses look less onerous.
Many made big bets on higher gold prices and paid big bucks to put their projects on line.
Getting out of debt for many; means still more shares.
IMHO; for many the best bet is more shares followed by reverse splits and then highly concentrated programs to bring all costs ( including the front office copy machine ) down.
If such a program was successful and the power elite stopped pushing gold around; many would fly like eagles.
But with all that said, they all are mining something more valuable than a politicians word and the paper the bosses put out. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:46
Big Dummy @Ima Idiot>(@Ima Idiot): - Beaver: Thank you very much.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:44
EB @education.com...and a tribute to friends and foe...>(@education.com...and a tribute to friends and foe...): - Mooney...this ones for you ( it has worldwide appeal ;- ) ) ...you to WW...let's beat the horse deader and deader...
The idea of the 'small/little' people ( working-class-burger-flippers-low-wage-burnouts ) needing to be protected ( by unions ) against low wage jobs from the big-bad-wolf ( Ceo's and major Corp.'s ) both confuses and worries me.
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. I have always wondered what the heads of union's agenda has been. It is to:
a ) to further their own agenda
b ) to further their own agenda
c ) to further their own agenda
d ) to help the poor and helpless
2. I have always wondered the agendas of the attorneys ( lawyer ) that represent the unions. It is to:
a ) to further their own agenda
b ) to further their own agenda
c ) to further their own agenda
d ) to help the poor and helpless
The real issue that Everyone ( libs AND conservs AND nations alike ) needs to get behind is education...wait a second...I was going to ramble on about how education is needed for people in all societies to get better jobs and to seek better pay and that people need to get off their asses and do something about their 'miserable lives' but then it was going to sound like a broken record or a 'conservative' ( and I know this group hates a broken record ) . And then I was going to turn the coin and talk like the libs. and say I've been sh*t on my Whole life and it's because of the other guy Not my shortcomings blah, blah...Right, another broken record. I don't like to generalize with regards to politics, so I won't. Instead I'll say this... wait, no I won't...OK...I'll say this...
Get off your asses and get educated and educate your children and teach your children to educate their children and so on until you create this Ugly cycle of educating the youth ( I'm brainstorming here ) . This way, one can 'earn' a good job and be productive in his/her own small ( relatively speaking of course ) society and 'earn' a good wage or be a CEO of his/her own company or be proud of your work and show others your pride and be good to your neighbors and...wait...what? oh, this is a precious metals page? The hell it is... this is an invest in your future page...right? So invest in the future...educate and be educated...make your own bed...
Anyway, I'm hungry and sick ( stomach virus ) and I've got to go to the toilet...I wonder if gold will follow.
AWAY
eb
mooney...btw...that's at least the second rock ( first was that whole J. Kennedy drunken rage thing ) you've thrown at [US]. What axe are you grinding anyway? Are you not 'North American'? please correct me if I'm wrong... be nice to your neighbors...I love you man!!! :- ) - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:43
Beaver @ Beaver's Den>(@ Beaver's Den): - Big Dummy: You're definitely not a Bull, nor a Bear. You may be a PIG, but I would gather that you're more like an absolute eeeeddddiiiooottttttt!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:40
Big Dummy @ Miro has two faces>(@ Miro has two faces): - Okay you dummy - you got it! Here goes: I can confirm thge dow closed up today.
Thank you very much.
Miro, are you a Bull, Bear or a Pig on gold? I'm trying to decide which one I am. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:37
panda @>(@): - Charlton Heston -- The answer is that the smart money wades in to the 'Blue Chip' gold stocks first. Then the higher cost producers, and finally the speculatives. Look at it this way, you can buy a high quality Blue Chip, say Newmont Gold ( NEM or NGC, I like NGC ) on the cheap. When everyone else gets interested in those stocks, they'll be 30% - 50% higher than they are now. Then the crowd will be looking for 'more reasonably priced' gold stocks. I think you get the picture now.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:30
Miro Question from Dummy>(Question from Dummy): - Gentlemen,
can you explain/confirm for this dummy the reason for stocks
keeping on pretty steady course today?. For the first time there was
no significant drop this afternoon due to shorts stepping in, taking
profit. Does this mean that shorts ran out of steam? Are they
just regrouping? Taking different strategy?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:28
Beaver @Beaver's Den>(@Beaver's Den): - George: Dagnabbit! Don't sign off yet, I jist signed on and I need to read your posts! Where you goin anways until Wednesday?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:24
George Cole trend changing>(trend changing): - HUI outperforming XAU today. And Joberg outperforming HUI. Just what one would want to see if the trend is changing for real.
Signing off until Wed. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 15:14
Jack RJ is a realist>(RJ is a realist): -
RJ did say that he has the yellow running in his veins and when/if things turned, he probably would be buying.
As a realist he sees the stock market action which is to an extent based on all the pro and con articals plus the government statistics as per markets/gold. He sees everyone buying the bullcrap; so why fight it.
Simply, the market told him, the time is not right for the yellow.
I personally would be careful with the platinum group metals and truly wonder if the Russkies are as inept as hinted -just a feeling.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 14:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - CHARLTON HESTON: Yes. You brought the wrong gold stocks. In order to correct this problem it will be necessary to buy the right gold stocks. Glad to help.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 14:35
Charlton Heston Moses@northwestern.edu>(Moses@northwestern.edu): - Could one of you gentlemen let the market know that gold is up today? None of my gold stocks seem to be getting the message. Is there an explanation for this?
Thank you very much - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 14:00
GVC @George S. Cole>(@George S. Cole): - George S Cole: couldn't agree with your last assessment more. It is essential that the South African stocks outperform for this not to be a fake out rally.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 13:50
GFD Platinum RJ>(Platinum RJ): - I am surprised in all the speculation about RJ that no one has commented on the fact that RJ has posted some charts at gold eagle showing that when the gold/platinum spread is greater 100 gold always has a strong rally. Based on Bart's spot price the spread is currently 112. If he believes that this spread holds true I suspect he is busy peeling a few layers on the short side. If he is, I wonder how easy it is to get the phyisical to cover....
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 13:50
George Cole Joberg>(Joberg): - Joberg gold index up 25 today; HUI and XAU up just a tad. December gold up $1.60. The outperformance of Joberg is another sign this turn is real.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 13:05
Green Thumb @To Steve in Perth>(@To Steve in Perth): - This correlation has been known to potheads for over a decade ( Cannabis and Gold pricing. ) Top quality smoke has always been pegged to the price of an oz. of gold. Although the price is 10x what it was in the early 70's, it's also 10x more potent.
It has also been understood that it was the largest cash crop in the U.S., especially in California ( where by the way the best is grown ) . Has this crop been included in the GDP? Don't think so.
I've read that the U.S. Imports over $50billion of the white powder from south america. Bet that doesn't get included in the trade figures also. It just gives further proof that the statistics that the usg puts out are pure fiction. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 13:03
bw A leader:>(A leader:): - Great article on the Teddy Roosevelt on page a14 of todays wsj. Can you imagine TR not alerting the commanders on Pearl Harbor that the Japanese fleet was on the way. Shot guns at five yards indeed.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 13:01
hiwatt tjb0334@mcdata.com>(tjb0334@mcdata.com): - STRAD MASTER - Would you contact me if you decide to sell your treasured instrument? I have a cousin who is a master luthier, working out of Chicago. He is one of the top 4 or 5 in the world at restoring violins, and has great connections who could undoubtedly be of assistance. He has worked on probably 50 of these priceless instruments, and is the head of a society that is dedicated to keeping them in the hands of the worlds great musicians. He performs the maintenance on these instruments for free to collectors who are willing to loan them to master violinists, so that these instruments can continue to be heard and appreciated. Thanks.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:44
Who Cares Interesting Article re: Inflation>(Interesting Article re: Inflation): -
Hmm. My mother just stopped by with today's paper. The Business
section has an article by Ellie Rodgers, looks like she's local
to the _Idaho Statesman_.
_High-Tech Firms Scramble For Workers_
to sweeten the pot, companies are offering sign-on bonuses,
sabbaticals, inflated salaries, and juicy relocation
packages. {forget it, I lost $20K on the last move}
But even though jobs are plentiful overall and downright
easy pickings in high-tech, Rapp said, the majority of
Boise employers are not handing out sign-on bonuses and
high pay. {Ha. I can vouch for that.}
Well, it's certainly true that the paper has been jammed
with computer-related jobs for the last several months.
Didn't seem to help me, though. I have 60+ rejection
letters, with a total of 12 interviews and three job offers,
two of which were a joke. That's what happens when
oligopolies run things. : ) Maybe I should try again now.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:42
Roebear @InternationalMarkets>(@InternationalMarkets): - With the exceptions of India,SA,Sweden,UK,+misc. there is a heck of a lot of red ink in world markets:
http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets?u - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:41
EB I think...metal=mettle>(I think...metal=mettle): - RJ is busy making money in the metals ( only ) market. Whether this goes up or down...I'm sure he will be on the right side sooner than later...
He has probably grown tired of reading the same stuff ( market- crash,doom,gloom ) over and over again... ( I really had to plow through some doosies on my catch-up this weekend )
I think that he also tires of saying 'gold will continue to go in the potty'...and, 'I am shorting gold now'...or, 'gold to $300 and then...$275'? 'gold is in a BEAR market now' 'more CB sales'... want more? I thought not...
a way to pass spare time...
eb
this is not meant as mean spirited 'trash talk', this is meant as a leave your emotions in check when 'investing' kind of thing... - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:41
panda @Mid-Day metals story>(@Mid-Day metals story): - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/11/y0023_z00_23.html
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:38
panda @Platinum>(@Platinum): - The U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center loaning Platinum to the U.S. Mint for coins;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/11/y0023_z00_24.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:34
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - Strad, IMVVHO, D.A. is right unless that treasure of yours represents a small fraction of your net worth. Please keep your handle if you sell for as we players of different instruments say, you are at least as good as your best ever score. I, and all on Kitco probably, will always see you with that Stradivarius whether you have it or not!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:27
bw Re: Earl, real money>(Re: Earl, real money): - Earl: You are correct it is not real money. However tens of millions of people are counting on it for a few little things like retirement, college educations, earning a living and such.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:16
EB stuff...of the frozen kind...>(stuff...of the frozen kind...): - MikeS 6:38 - I took it...hook, line, sinker...doooh! ( bartsimpson ) . Great stuff once again, thanks. The King of reason. BTW - 6/25/62. 7:30am. Broward Hospital, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. ( need some contact lenses...glasses? barter? )
Ted - my earlier post ( of last night ) ...I had the same problem...Backup all your important stuff to floppy, zip, tape, etc. Bookmarks and addresses are VERY important. You don't know until you have to 'rebuild' them. Then reload your O.S. like the good Dr. ( Front ) said. Problem solved...Maybe. I realize my posts probably go unread but maybe you'll catch this one...Good Luck, again...
AAwwAAyy...to check on my Stockpile of 15,000lb barrels of FCOJ! oh my!
EB
love a goooood glass of oj in the mornin'
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:10
panda @>(@): - TED -- May I suggest that you McAfees' latest anti-virus software. They have free updates for 'new' virus types every few months over the net. It should keep the uninvited guests away.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:08
D.A. while.rome.burned>(while.rome.burned): - Strad:
This one looks like a no brainer. Sell.
The fact that you are asking means that a substantial portion of your net worth exclusive of home and hearth is tied up in this instrument. As you have also indicated this fiddle is not absolutely necessary for your professional career. The question you must ask yourself from a purely rational investment point of view is this: If you did not own the fiddle but instead had the equivalent amount of money in cash, and this cash represented a large portion of your liquid net worth, would you go out and purchase this instrument? My sense is that the answer is no. Both from the standpoint of liquidity and diversification it would not be a good idea.
I do not know what the current market is for an instrument of this type but I do know that the art market in general is quite strong. We are clearly in a period of great liquidity, where much of this liquidity is concentrated in the hands of the very rich. Bringing an object of such quality and rarety into a market like this seems like a lay-up. Whether or not this is the top in the market I have no idea. I do know for certain that we are a long ways from the last bottom back in the early 90's. If you go the auction route I suspect you can cut a very favorable deal with either Christie's or Sotheby's as the lot would no doubt be a plum for either house.
Now for the emotional side. While some have counciled about the beauty and joy that an object of such quality can bring, and thus argue in favor of retention, my own sentiments are different. As you know I dabble in fine art and antiques and am fully acquainted with 'falling in love' with a something. While I have never possessed anything near the quality of your fiddle, I know well the pleasant feelings that can be had from 'feeling' the past in an exquisitely made object.
The counterpoint to this however, is the wonder and joy, completely unsurpassed by anything I have ever experienced, with simply spending time with my little toddler. An evening walk around the neighborhood, 'hunting for dogs' ( ducks in his parlance ) is as good as it gets. Given that the sale of your fiddle is likely to afford you more time and freedom to persue this kind of activity, this seems like a very good trade.
If you do decide to sell and want to go the private route rather than the auction route I can put you in touch with someone who might possibly broker the deal. He is an art and antique dealer in the NYC area and moves very high end merchandise with a specialty in Hudson River School paintings. I don't know if he knows anything about fiddles, but he is well connected and has a very wealthy clientele.
Whatever you decide, best of luck.
Best Wishes to the Mrs. and the little ones. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 12:00
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Who Cares: Yer right it isn't real money, after all. But they really don't want the masses to understand either. If and when they do understand, the game is over for real.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:54
jfdsa kgl;sdk>(kgl;sdk): - I don't think RJ is paying too much attention to this forum these days.
I expect he is doing some very hard thinking and cannot allow himself to be influenced by the postings on this site.
Also, since gold started acting a little firmer, RJ has stopped offering his fatherly advice and poetry. His posts recently have had a touch of anger. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:45
Who Cares Free Glee!!!>(Free Glee!!!): - But the bigger question is will we have the good sense to sell that gold somewhere down the road, when all looks like it's going down the tubes?
Yes, that's the real question. : )
And, please...a little less WANTING, and GLEE, over the possibility that there could be indeed a deflation, or inflation, of terrible proportions.
Wanting? Heck, I just want my career back, but I don't
think I have the will anymore to rebuild it. : ) Besides,
I fully expect the various governments around the world
to bail us out. : ) Look, they did in '87, right?
Then Greenspan bailed out the banks in the ensuing
contained depression of '91-94. Then, when everyone
bailed out on our bonds, somehow Greenspan convinced
the various governments to keep us propped up until
now.
What makes you think they don't have yet another
contigency plan? : ) So the Nikkei crashes, it's
not like it's real money or anything. : )
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:42
jfkldas fdsa>(fdsa): - Inflation
A teamster victory may not be inflationary. If the teamsters win, the apparel companies and other shipping co.'s may under go a big drop in income and profits causing job losses at these shipper dependant companies - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:38
Dr. Front To TED:>(To TED:): -
OK TED, while you're away at the computer hospital, here's my prediction of what will/has happened. You got a virus my lad. They will re-install your operating system ( win31 or win95 ) , Sell you some virus software like MacAfee or Symantic and then say all is well. What actually happened is that the boot program got infected by a virus and when a program goes back to the bios for what to do next, the virus has moved the spot to look for the bios. I know you're not a computer nerd, so you're just as well to have taken it to the hospital. Let me know if my forward viewing is right will ya? I may start a business on the side! Best of luck....
TTFN - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:27
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - It is believed that the US did not give to the Thai rescue bid ( yet ) due to lack of funds. ( see last paragraph ) .
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970812/world/world3.html
Too busy bailing out their own bond market perhaps? Who needs a war in Korea or China when you have a currency collapse to sort out!! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:14
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Bull run stumbles as rate fears rise in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970812/business/business4.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:11
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Australian stock sell off worst in 4 months
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970812/business/business3.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 11:03
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Australia doubles its commitment to bail out Thailand.
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970812/pageone/pageone4.html
When you are throwing it down the toilet, you might as well do it in style. Maybe we can take Mr Downer's super fund as security over the loan to the Thais! If they default, the Australian tax payers can have Mr Downer's super fund. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 10:29
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - When written in Chinese, the word crisis is composed of two characters.
One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.
-----------John F. Kennedy - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 10:27
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't
do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from
the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream.
Discover.
----- Mark Twain
How's it go? - Get real, Get Gold. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 10:14
nailz BACK ON.....>(BACK ON.....): - Back after coin show....Lots of demand....Gold, silver and coins in general....Seems to be plenty of money chasing the available material....TED....sounds like you need to reload software since you have cleared the cache...Kinda of in and out.....
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 10:09
Mooney @RJ>(@RJ): - From last night: RJ - Get yer butt back here! ( American )
If Rj is going to continue with his program he is probably shorting right about NOW. RJ? - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 09:49
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - BART: Can you give us an estimate on the time to operation of the squelch button?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 09:01
Roebear @oldman>(@oldman): - oldman, having read your posts over the weekend I now understand why everyone missed you. Please keep posting for us newbies who did not know what we were missing. Kitco is a benign addiction, with no side effects for anyone with a grain of salt, and it is free, like the best things in life.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:54
Ted @BYE>(@BYE): - On advice of puter store am bringing it in fer repairs...I'll be HERE in spirit....
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:50
Roebear @Reify>(@Reify): - Deaner prudent trader site, no longer free, but still calling good shots:
http://www.prudenttrader.com/ - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:40
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Hot off the press....Gold up .70; Silver up 2 cents; and PL down 1.20...
S+P futures up 2.85.... - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:36
Ted @Mike Sheller>(@Mike Sheller): - Mornin Mike!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:34
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - A hot one for Cape Breton as it's already 74 degrees...and sunny...Stores don't open till 10 AM here and will then call my computer store...Computer freeze-up is gettin worse!...Comex:Gold up .30; Silver up 1.5 cents; PL @ unch; and PA down .75 ....S+P futures up 2.10....Even though the puter and the chainsaw are broken,it's a beautiful day and I'll be jumpin into the kayak to escape Murphy's Law....S+P now up 2.40!..Looks like the dipsters are baaaack.....
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:26
Mike Sheller Monday Morning at the charts>(Monday Morning at the charts): - Notice how Sept silver failed on Friday to take out the short term downtrend line connecting the last hi made in June, with the Monday Aug 4 hi. Above 4.50 is a breakout, short term, in which case next minor resistance might be at 4.62. A break into new lows keeps the 4.09 - 4.15 floor alive. Have a great day all!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:06
Mike Sheller REAL reality check...thanks Reify!>(REAL reality check...thanks Reify!): - REIFY, STRAD: Strad Master - Reify is right. This is something beyond a commodity, or even real money. It's something that many a passionate musician has been called to own, but destiny has chosen YOU. Even from a purely financial standpoint ( and have we artists sunk that low? No! ) it is a priceless longterm investment that can only rise in relative value, and perhaps even make your children, or grandchildren rich. Especially if none of them has any musical talent. Keep the damn fiddle. DONALD: Donald, I didn't have you in mind when I said what I said about prophets of doom. Somehow you have a way of outlining the worst, while projecting a subtle compassion for all of us. I once made the mistake of allowing my vision of an apocalypse to perhas harden my heart to the vast implications it would bring. I paid a price. Walking that humble and helpful line you have managed to tread is not easily done. I guess it's a matter of one's own reality, is it not?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:03
George Cole Fed Critics want lower rates>(Fed Critics want lower rates): -
Monday, August 11, 1997
Fed Putting a Crimp on Economy, Critics Say
Business: Dissatisfied with current outlook, 'growth optimists' push for lower
interest rates to spur expansion.
By ART PINE, Times Staff Writer
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ASHINGTON--Unemployment is at a 23-year low. Inflation is
nowhere to be seen. To most analysts, the nation's economy is
doing so well that it is difficult to imagine how to improve it.
It doesn't get any better than this, says Robert G. Dederick, an
economist at Northern Trust Co.
Now comes a group of economists who contend that not only can
it get better than this but that it should--and that it would if only Alan
Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, would loosen up
and let interest rates come down.
These growth optimists, as they are known, say the Fed's
insistence that the economy cannot grow faster than 2.3% a year
without reviving inflation is dead wrong--and is costing output and
jobs.
We think it can grow faster without exacerbating inflation,
said Jeff Faux, executive director of the liberal Economic Policy
Institute in Washington and a key proponent of the growth optimists'
point of view.
How much faster is anybody's guess, Faux said, but we
probably can sustain a growth of 3% to 3 1/2%. The problem is, we
have a Fed that's more concerned about making investors comfortable
than about growth.
If the growth optimists are right, the difference is a lot greater
than it sounds.
Barry Bluestone, a University of Massachusetts economist,
estimates that boosting the growth rate even to 3% would add an
average of $300 billion a year to the nation's output over the next 10
years--raising income, jobs and tax revenues to boot.
Setting a 2.3% speed limit, as the Fed and the White House
effectively have done, is unnecessarily depriving the nation of all that,
Bluestone writes in the American Prospect, a liberal journal.
The bridge to the 21st century apparently is being built without
a high-speed lane, Bluestone said.
Liberals are not alone in arguing that the economy can grow
more rapidly without reigniting the fires of inflation.
During the 1996 presidential campaign, GOP nominee Bob Dole
and his running mate, Jack Kemp, contended that the economy could
safely grow faster. Kemp asserted that even 5% might be manageable.
However, the two sides have far different prescriptions for how
to spur greater growth. The liberals want to cut interest rates, while
conservatives would slash taxes and government regulations.
The view at the Fed is that allowing the economy to grow much
faster would risk reviving inflation, which they say is by far the
biggest threat to long-term prosperity.
In this view, labor is already scarce in many areas of the
country, setting the stage for escalating wages. Higher wages eventually
will spawn big price hikes. The wage-price spiral will begin.
Faux and other growth optimists call that line of reasoning out of
date and badly flawed. To begin with, they argue, the labor force has
excess capacity--in the form of a large, untapped pool of workers who
can fill new jobs without straining the system.
They say young men who once dropped out of the labor force
are beginning to come back as job opportunities improve. The influx
of women into the job market is accelerating again. And older workers
are retiring later.
Second, they argue, the advent of new technology, made possible
largely by the introduction of the microprocessor, has laid the base for
a massive improvement in worker efficiency, a key to faster growth.
Although the change has not shown up in government statistics
yet, Bluestone contends that it will as soon as workers and managers
learn to use computers effectively.
There is good reason to believe that we are on the verge of a
productivity renaissance, he wrote, along with Bennett Harrison of the
New School of Social Research, in the American Prospect article.
The prospect of a faster-growing labor force and a more rapid
increase in productivity ought to make the economy better able to
tolerate faster growth without reviving inflationary pressures, the
growth optimists say.
Mainstream economic analysts remain skeptical.
Barry P. Bosworth, a Brookings Institution economist, contends
that the growth optimists have been proved wrong before. He recalls
that critics complained for years that government statistical techniques
understated gains in worker productivity. But when measurement
techniques were revised, productivity did not improve.
Moreover, Bosworth and other economists argue that even if
labor markets turn out not to be as tight as they seem, it would only
take a year before the excess workers were absorbed and the
shortages began.
As a result, he contends, any faster growth would have a
one-shot effect. You'd get to a lower unemployment rate for a while,
but that would be it, and then you'd be back to what everyone is talking
about now.
Besides the Fed and most mainstream economists, the Clinton
administration and the Congressional Budget Office are backing the
view that the optimum economic growth rate is between 2% and 2.5%.
What is ironic to some analysts is that for all of Greenspan's
warnings about overheating, there is little real evidence that the Fed
has been excessive recently in restraining the economy's growth.
Although the Fed did tighten credit in March by boosting the
interest rate that banks charge on overnight loans to other banks, the
increase was only a quarter of a percentage point, hardly enough to
impede growth very seriously.
If anything, monetary analysts point out, the Fed's rate hike
actually reduced interest rates on long-term investments by dampening
fears that inflation might be about to rebound.
The Fed has already watched without taking action as the
unemployment rate slipped far below the level economists have said
would reignite inflation. That level, 6% in the late 1970s and 5.5% in
the 1990s, is 5.3% today--still far above the 4.8% jobless rate
registered in July.
And whatever Greenspan's misgivings in March, he has spent
much of the summer raising the possibility that the economy has
undergone enough basic changes that faster growth may be possible.
At the last two meetings of the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open
Market Committee, Greenspan has been the dove, beating back
attempts by more hawkish members to raise interest rates again.
Rep. Barney Frank ( D-Mass. ) , a proponent of faster growth who
has criticized Greenspan recently, muses wryly that the chairman has
moved considerably toward the liberals' view. He said that if he had
known earlier what he now knows about Greenspan's position, he
might not have been so hard on the Fed chairman.
That leaves the dispute largely a matter of timing. The growth
optimists want to let the economy grow faster until signs of renewed
inflation begin to show up, while mainstream economists want to keep
growth slow until there is evidence that productivity has improved.
To the mainstream economists, the costs of beating back inflation
once it begins are far greater than the growth sacrificed upfront to
prevent inflation from resuming.
When the Greenspan-led Fed miscalculated in favor of faster
growth in 1988, Bosworth said, it found itself unable to cope easily
with mounting wage demands and an oil price hike. As a result, the
Fed tightened monetary policy sharply, triggering a recession in 1990
that cost many more jobs than slowing the growth rate earlier would
have.
For that reason, Bosworth argues, it is important for the Fed to
err on the side of caution. The odds are that the central bank will keep
watching the unemployment rate edge down without raising interest
rates again.
But it is unlikely to do so at a pace that satisfies the growth
optimists; what they want is not even on the Fed's agenda. Faux said: I
think the Fed ought to be lowering interest rates.
Search the archives of the Los Angeles Times for similar stories. You will not be
charged to look for stories, only to retrieve one.
Copyright Los Angeles Times
PREV STORY
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- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 08:02
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Comments on Tokyo metals overnight trading
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/11/z0009_38.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Comments on HK gold overnight trading.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/11/z0000_1.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - South Korean gold transhipments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/11/y0004_y00_1.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: You were up late last night, now with PC problems, ugh. I have my old PC, a 486/40 Dell ready all the time as backup. It's slow but better than nothing. We are 71F but the humidity is up to 80% already. Nice and sunny.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:44
vronsky THE RED BARON (Part - 3)>(THE RED BARON (Part - 3)): - Gold Loans by numerous CBs is ludicrous & INSANE. Hapless Gold Mining
companies sold forward years of production. A substantial price rise
will show the errors of BOTH their ways:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron810.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:39
vronsky Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)>(Oracle AT JAPANESE SURVIVAL, Part - V (11 August 1997)): -
JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK & HARD SPOT: First, FRB Report warned in Sept 1995
when DOW was 4700, then Greenspan alerted all with DOW about 6000! Now
the DOW tops 8300!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/oracle811.html
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER: As I mentioned in a post more than a week ago I know I can not escape what is coming. Many of my financial affairs are beyond my control. I can only hope that the pension manager steps aside from the truck. My kids are in the same financial boat I was in when I was their age. At least I have prepared them mentally for what is about to happen. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:36
George Cole markets>(markets): - LURKER; DBC December gold is at http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/squote?SOURCE=DBCC&TICKER=gc%3Dz7&tables=extend&format=fractions
You can reset it to get any other stock, commodity,or index.
Dollar up modetly this morning; European markets down a bit.. Japan off 4%. DBC gold off a dime. Joberg gold index flat.
Looks like the U.S.markets will attemt a rally this morning. I still think the tide is turning in a fundamental way, but it will be slow going for awhile. Stocks and the dollar not going strait down and gold not going strait up. But gold and gold shares will be considerably higher by October while stocks and the dollar will be lower. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:04
Ted @grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr>(@grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr): - The damn thing is still freezin up....Long live the Luddites!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 07:04
Reify @Life's Pleasures>(@Life's Pleasures): - Stradmaster- your question re the Strad gives us all food for thought.
Here's my take-- With the many riches life has to offer beauty- such as a truly enchanting sound that a rare instrument makes-- is priceless!!!
To sell something so rare and outstanding would be a mistake that could not easily be rectified. Think on the subject another number of years, and during that time enjoy it and its sounds.
You are a lucky man. May your luck continue. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 06:56
Scirocco @reality.check>(@reality.check): - Nothing has changed in the fundamentals of the stock market and gold. Face it... you try to pick the bottom, and many of you have lost money. What's the rush here?
Gold is no better investment today than yesterday. Plenty of fake outs for gold, while DOW corrects here and there.
Good luck all.
Scirocco
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 06:40
Ted @thanks>(@thanks): - KJB ( 00:24 ) Dan ( 00:37 ) Thanks for the help!...I clicked clear memory cache now...and then clicked OK...Am feelin like Bill Gates now...See if this works and if not I'll HAMMER the damn thing....AU99.9 ( 5:11 ect ) thank ( ? ) you too dude...Globex Futures up .85
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 06:40
Mike Sheller looks like we're in for stormy weather >(looks like we're in for stormy weather ): - Mornin' Ted.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 06:38
Mike Sheller The magic portfolio>(The magic portfolio): - EB: The portfolio is up $2000 already? MUSINGS OVER COFFEE: Another Philosophical Kitco weekend has passed. Some deep thoughts for a Monday morning linger. Several kind posters mentioned the need for folks to get with the program they call reality. Ahhh, how elusive a concept. Like truth, this idea, this ideal, often refuses to rapidly and officially identify itself. Even many decades after a fact. I would suggest that those who invoke this terrible burden upon we terminally opinionated human beings check their own realities, and be a bit less critical of that of others. STRADMASTER: You bring to the Kitco table a truly stupendous puzzle. Your Stradivarius, emanator of Golden tones that it is, is certainly an investment vehicle fit for discussion at Kitco ( lest we be accused of merely fiddling around ) . To sell this magnificent creation now, perhaps at the top of its market ( and form ) or hold on? This will be the angst-provoking spear in the side of all bullion owners when gold roars to $2,400, or perhaps even $6000 per ounce. Sell? Now But the world is going to Hell! Look at my gold! How can I sell it now. It is my warmth, my succor, my support, in this the darkest hour, the brink of civilization's fall. ( Probably the best time ever to buy US Treasuries for another decade's pop ) . Do we have the fortitude to step in and accumulate bullion and shares while the whole world laughs at our foolishness ( isn't it OBVIOUS that MUTUAL FUNDS are the things to buy? ) Yes, some of us do. But the bigger question is will we have the good sense to sell that gold somewhere down the road, when all looks like it's going down the tubes? AND FINALLY: This talk about the BIG BOYS want this, and the BIG BOYS want that, and how they fling us around and CONTROL EVERYTHING, and now they WANT a depression, or this or that. Re-think what a market is. And, please...a little less WANTING, and GLEE, over the possibility that there could be indeed a deflation, or inflation, of terrible proportions. Human catastrophe has a way of biting at EVERYONE's heels. Do not be too sure that you will escape the destiny you see laying wait for those around you whom you might accuse of not being so in touch with reality as you. Reality is a hard mistress. I think it may be time for some of us to go out there and repeat basic training. This is serious business, this social readjustment. There may be bargains when the blood runs in the streets. But you can't hardly take advantage when you are lying in the gutter bleeding to death. Or am I too getting out of touch with reality? Will it all unfold on my computer screen, and I won't even have to go outside? Really...
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 06:15
Ted @TGIM>(@TGIM): - Mornin Donald and ALL Kitcoites! Let's see,where are we...Friday on Wall Street spread to Japan and the Nikkei 225 was down 780 ( almost 4% ) ;Hang Seng down 178 ( 1.1% ) ....Europe is also down but only modestly...
London down 20;German Dax down 33....In London long bond is up ten ticks
....The Dollar ( U.S. ) is mostly up.....S+P Globex futures are up .30....
DBC Dec. Gold is down a dime....Off ta read the Urinal - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Week could be bumpy ride for markets.
http://www.nypostonline.com/monday/business/bus2.htm - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:45
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Argentina doubts Brazil will devaluate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/05/z0009_51.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Brazil hints at devaluation of currency.
http://200.246.213.8/gmnoti.htm#not6 - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:37
Au99.9 Ted @Root Directory>(Ted @Root Directory): - Ted, how stupid of me. I forgot to mention.....always check for gold at the bottom of the hole...before planting the seed.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Finance: US regulator fights to keep
derivatives scheme
MONDAY AUGUST 11 1997
By Jim Kelly
The US financial reporting regulator will this week resist pressure from Mr
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, to ditch
controversial proposals requiring companies to mark derivatives to market.
Under this scheme, companies would have to introduce fair value reporting
for derivatives - reporting their current value in company accounts, rather
than the value for which they were originally bought - from January 1
1999.
Officially the Financial Accounting Standards Board is studying a letter
from Mr Greenspan calling for a re-think on the proposals.
But officials at Norwalk, the board's headquarters, insist there is no need
for a further consultation document. It plans to write to the Fed today on
the issue.
New chairman Mr Ed Jenkins and the rest of the board have been heavily
criticised since publishing the proposals last month. The board wants
derivatives marked to market - and any losses or gains taken through
earnings.
However, special treatment is allowed for hedging - with gains or losses
deferred until the hedge is completed. But crucially the board, while
allowing hedging, will lay down strict rules on which transactions qualify.
Earlier this month more than 20 US business leaders - mostly leading
bankers - wrote to Jenkins expressing worries about the potential impact
of the new rules. They said Norwalk was rushing into the project and that
the upheaval would undermine companies' ability to manage risk while
preparing for the year 2000 problem and the introduction of a European
single currency.
Greenspan had similar complaints, saying the proposals would not improve
accounting for derivatives and would constrain prudent risk management.
He suggested expanding disclosure of derivatives - at fair value - in
supplemental financial statements. He envisaged competition between the
two sets of statements with the market using the most useful.
But the board's supporters think the banks are leading a campaign to delay
the introduction of the mark to market approach. Supporters further
suggest that some companies use derivatives to manage earnings by
retrospectively recognising transactions as part of a hedge to defer losses
and gains.
There are also questions over why the proposals should have such a
dramatic effect when US companies are already required to disclose
derivatives at fair value - or mark them to market. What are the analysts
doing with this information now ? asked one supporter of the board.
The board is not alone in its attempts to push ahead with the standard. In
May, Mr Michael Sutton, chief accountant at the Securities and Exchange
Commission, the US stock market regulator, praised the proposals and the
fact that the board had tinkered with them to meet complaints from
companies about hedge accounting. It seems to me that the board has
worked hard to try to address the legitimate concerns of its constituents
without undermining the integrity of the project, he said.
He acknowledged that there would be greater volatility in earnings when
companies used derivatives which did not qualify as hedges under the new
rules.
Reporting that volatility, however, is not the same as reporting artificial
volatility. Rather it is capturing, in the financial statements, real economic
events that often are not reported today.
The SEC believes the board's proposals are necessary - especially as it
estimates that at the end of 1995 the notional amount of derivatives
outstanding in the US was more than $20,000bn ( Ł12,270bn ) .
In the past the board has had to revise some of its standards - but only
after Congress or the SEC has stepped in. With the SEC behind it,
Norwalk looks like it is preparing to ride out the storm. If it can get the
standard through, the new international code for accounting on the world's
leading markets - due to be endorsed next year - is likely to take up the
US approach. If it has to publish the standard again as a consultative draft,
a solution could be years away. What Greenspan is saying is an immense
step backwards, said David Cairns, editor of the World Accounting
Report. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Tokyo stocks post largest fall of the year.
Dollar plunges to 115 Yen
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Even.html - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:12
Jack Its free>(Its free): -
SUBJECT: My last post. If the connection to the Financial Times left you hanging, which I suspect it did. You will have to register, but its free. Best way in is http://www.ft.com ,then register. Paper covers a broad range.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:11
Au99.9 Ted@Root Directory>(Ted@Root Directory): - Ted, nothing complicated about a Root Directory. First dig the hole. Then use the handle of the shovel to poke a hole through the centre of the hole you have just dug. Hey presto!!! There you have it, A Root Directory. Now plant the seed in the hole and the root knows exactly which direction to follow. Simple....aint it. Happy gardening!
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 05:04
Jack Its free>(Its free): -
SUBJECT: My last post. If the connection to the Financial Times left you hanging, which I suspect it did. You will have to register, but its free. Best way in is http://www.ft.com ,then register. Paper covers a broad range.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 04:59
Reify @sitcom.co.il>(@sitcom.co.il): - Anyone have Deaners' site number, seemed to have cancelled it by mistake.
Don't be suprised if Golds correct near term. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 04:47
Jack Regulators and Greenspan at odds>(Regulators and Greenspan at odds): -
SEC and various accounting groups want derivatives marked to market. Greenspan doesn't like the idea.
The $20,000 billion that US companies play with could be serious negative stuff.
See http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/86fd2.htm
If doesn't get you directly there, it's free to register.
Other good articals you might like, when you browse around. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 04:39
LZ more news>(more news): - Report on fall in Tokyo http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge/1105.1.html
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 04:19
LZ in London>(in London): - FTSE down 49.3 @ 8:53am
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 04:11
LZ @ the zoo>(@ the zoo): - Japan -3.98%,China -1.82%,Hong Kong -1.18%,Indonesia -2.07%,Malaysia -3.51%,Singapore -2.54%. Thats poor.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 03:43
Who Cares CEO Redux>(CEO Redux): -
CEOs. Board of Directors. Function of Information.
Shareholders need an independent data source. A solvable
problem. : ) After the Crash. : )
Nikkie down 780?! OUTSTANDING! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 03:32
Goldbug23 @Arma>(@Arma): - EARL: Your Aug.10 23:35 post says it all. Normally I am a what the market says person but when outfits like Disney, for example, pay Eisner what they do something is wrong somewhere. I think Boards of Directors appointed often, in effect, by CEO's are the problem. He is setting his own salary because the Board is beholden to him. The shareholders get the shaft.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 02:39
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for I Want
In 1996 RSA produced 355,000 oz rhodium, Russian 90,000, USA 16,000.
About 85 % is used in Auto catalyst. Some is used in glass. - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 02:37
Joe @>(@): -
Tokyo down 780 or 4%! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 01:33
Joe @>(@): -
Nekkei down 2.5%. Anyone know how the tigers are doing? - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 01:31
Congressman Bob @Reply to Donald>(@Reply to Donald): - My favorite Congressman is Ron Paul. Why you may ask? Well, for one thing I don't have to share the bribes with him. Being honest, he refuses to go along with the program. He never accepts any Campaign contributions from the businessmen of the world. This leaves more for my associates and me. After all, there is only a finite amount of money available to us Congressmen. Remember, contributions are spread out all across the hill.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 01:29
6pak Puetz @ 00:47>(Puetz @ 00:47): - Explanation is very reasonable. The interest was put forth, because I
do not use an e-mail address, I did not think it was necessary, not
out of fear, on my part.
Thanks,Take care ! - Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:53
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Gold continues to edge higher -- now up 80 cents. Silver up 2.5. The S&P futures are starting to fall back down again -- now down 420. Tomorrow morning should be interesting.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:47
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - 6pk: It wasn't that the lurker didn't give an e-mail address, it was that he or she didn't give either a name, handle, or e-mail address. What I was trying to say is that he/she should have at least given an e-mail address if the name and handle was left off. I'd say most people like to have a vague idea of who it is they're having a discussion with. That's just normal manners.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:37
Dan dan007@juno.com>(dan007@juno.com): - Ted: It sounds like you are running out of hard drive space.
Netscape ( and other Browsers ) cache everything to your hard drive This includes images on every page that you ever visited during your browsing. ( If somebody wants to see where you've been, they can go into the cache directory and double-click on every item. Scary, huh? ) Everyone should periodically clear their hard drive caches unless you only go to the same sites over and over. ( The cache saves your computer from downloading complete pages of sites you often visit. Typically, it will only download things that have changed ) To clear your cache in Netscape, go to Options, Network Preferences and click on Clear disk cache now. Also, search your hard drive for *.tmp files then delete them. Windows has a habit of creating temp files and then not deleting them for one reason or another. Finally, run Scandisk. You need to run it periodically anyway to ensure your hard drive ( s ) remain trouble free. I work on PCs all the time and have freed up hundreds of megabytes on some PCs by doing those three things. First, to see how much free space you have on your hard drive, double click on the My Computer icon, then RIGHT click on the C drive and then select Properties. You will see how much free space you have. Plus you get to Scandisk by selecting Error-checking status here by looking under the Tools tab.
If the above efforts do not help, you may not have enough RAM or maybe a RAM chip went bad. Enough computerese, this is a precious metals discussion site and you can find tons of help for computer problems elsewhere on the web. If you'd like more of my help though, you are welcome to email me.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:35
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WW: Wanting and getting are two different things. I'm sure most people and corporations that are now receiving subsidies and hand-outs will continue to want them. But the big question is: Who will be able to pay for it? The wealth you talk about are paper profits on stocks and bonds, and unrealized gains on real estate. The coming crash will wipe out those gains -- making most of the wealthy poor. Only holders of gold and silver will survive financially. I expect a movement back toward capitalism because of an increasing inability to find taxpayers to support social programs. Many of the wealthy have already left the US for the tax-safe havens around the globe. Efforts to increase socialism will only accelerate this capital flight. In both Chile and Russia a great number of people wanted the former social safety-nets maintained. The hard reality of the necessity of rewarding capital formation forced those countries to begin moving back toward capitalism -- in spite of the popular demand for maintaining the safety-nets.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:24
kjb cache>(cache): - Ted: When my computer slows to a stop, I clear my cache and it always helps. If your running Netscape Gold click on Options at the top on the menu bar. Select Network Preference. Go to Cache and click on Clear memory cache now.
If you are running an earlier version I think you have to use Windows Explorer and go to the Netscape files to find the cache file.
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:17
DAVE @LET'S PREDICT>(@LET'S PREDICT): - Okay, could we cut to the chase, and bottom line guess as to what will happen with Gold next week? My 2 cents says 340 by Friday.
Anyone else?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:13
want to buy@rhodium>(buy@rhodium): - What country does Rhodium mostly come from, Russia or South Africa?
- Date: Mon Aug 11 1997 00:09
Ted @Earl>(@Earl): - Hi Earl.....how bout a damn six by six!...Remember our conversation about our Stihl's runnin fer ever...well, mines on the disable list and even after a 200$ bill,they don't know if it'll work fer long...I'm gettin that ominous feelin that Murphy's Law is takin over...I'm not known for my patience and it is getting tempting to smash the hell out of this damn machine....If I vanish from cyber-space you'll know why.....I'm tired and FRUSTRATED...better go to sleep and dream of Asian......see ya dude!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:56
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD: US stock market to go on without the Bond Market.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970811/market/markets4.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:55
EB Steve-Perth>(Steve-Perth): - Marijuana, Lumber, Wine Grapes...the leading cash crops in California... and Gold has to shoot like a rocket to equal a good Oz. of quality California Homegrown...at least that's what I read in the papers ;- )
AwAy... to water my garden...
EB
just kidding folks... - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:55
Who Cares Currency Devaluation Theory>(Currency Devaluation Theory): -
I have a theory about currency devaluations. I haven't seen it
anywhere else. Imagine a group of currencies that all start
from a common point. They begin devaluation.
As long as they all devalue at the EXACT same rate, there is
no currency fluctuation, right?
Now, imagine those same currencies, but instead of devaluing
along a common exponential curve, they START OFF at slightly
different functions. Now, for awhile, the devaluations may
appear linear, like between the dollar and yen. And there will
be stepped corrections, right?
But, as we progress further along the curves, the offsets
between them become larger and larger. Ergo - greater and
greater currency adjustments, as the various governments around
the world try to stay in sync.
What would cause slightly different equations of devaluation?
Well, I believe devaluation is strongly linked to accumulation
of debt. But, different cultures may have different tolerances
for levels of debt, willingness to incur debt; the relative
strength or weakness of a government may encourage it to devalue
at a stronger or lower rate.
Anyway, given enough information, it *should* be possible for
these governments to keep their currencies in sync. However,
in reality, as rates of devaluation accelerate, it should become
harder and harder to prevent panics, Soros manipulations, etc.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:52
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Aust. Govt considering to borrow more money that we don't have, to flush it down the toilet in Thailand
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970811/news/news1.html
PS. Treasury officials RUSHED there!!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:48
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Ted: No, an expert is just likely to confuse matters. What's required in these situations is a measured dose of percussive adjustment. It's accomplished with a calibrated two by four - ( you may remember them from when you earned an honest living ) - applied in careful sequence alongside the computer case. It's really an old mule skinner's trick. If you want to give a mule a command, it's first necessary to smack him in the forehead to get his attention. ...... Technology may change but some things are universal and timeless. ... Send us a landline fax to let us know how it turns out. ...... :- ) ) ) )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:47
EB Did I mention...>(Did I mention...): - Trading futures carries risk so be careful and...
DO YOUR HOMEWORK...
aWaY!.!.!.!.!.!.!.
EB :-%$ ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:47
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Cannabis price similar to Gold! Latest findings!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970811/invest/ivcommod.html
Cannabis price follows when gold goes to pot By Stephen Wyatt
We will have to start a Dope Chatline, linked off Kitco. Hepcat can
run it if he likes!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:44
EB Ted and Shooting stars...and damn locking netscape...and other stuff>(Ted and Shooting stars...and damn locking netscape...and other stuff): - I had the same problem with my work computer. I re-installed netscape and that did not fix it. I then saved all my files ( zipped ) and reloaded Win95. That worked...I do not know what caused it and it was a major time waste but...it's the price we have to pay if we want to read the looney posts of people in favor of the teamsters...I'm talkin' LOONEY! Good luck Ted...
And while I'm here...
This is NOT the end of the bull run for the equities and this is NOT the start of the bull run for Gold. Of this I am 99.9% SURE.
Just one more thing...before I get trounced...
Aubrey 8:51 - If you are new to futures, do your homework before you start throwing money at out-of-money Gold CALLS with expiry Nov14.
Try slightly out of the money JOF8 calls...That's Golden! ( of this I am NOT sure at all...in other words...do your own homework...you will thank yourself later ) .
Mike S. - How did you get $12,000 from $10,000 ( the Shek thing ) . I want to know your accountant. He issa goood boy!
Shek - Go to the track tomorrow and put all $10,000 on 'Platinum Run' in the sixth race 'to win'...
NOW I'll be going...AWAY...
EB
trading futures is a risky business and you could lose ALL your money...do your homework!!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:44
Who Cares Ted, Ted, Ted>(Ted, Ted, Ted): -
No, no, Ted, I was just funning about Kitco, because it was
running so slow yesterday. The key thing to determine is if
it is related to the dial-up or not.
Use the computer with NO DIAL-UP, no modem use at all. If
your problem continues, you have a serious problem. Sorry,
but I haven't done phone support for Microsoft, but I would
say that it's likely to be some kind of software conflict.
What version of Win95 is it? Go to My Computer, right-click
on the icon, choose properties. I believe that 4.00.950a is
stable. If you have a previous version, perhaps you can update
it. My best guess. My next best guess would be bad memory.
Did you recently have thunderstorms? I can't remember now. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:43
leaner reply.ted>(reply.ted): - If you hire a programmer sit besides him/her and go though each and every directory and delete the ones you don't use regualarly, I got stuck on that one a while ago. One hour should do it at around $55.00/hr. I was amazed at the additional crap I was running!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:41
DJ D.A. #2>(D.A. #2): - D.A. - That other D.A. was me. Sometimes my fingers run ahead of my mind. Sorry. The property is in the high-end catagory. Neighbor just built a $1M house on a piece almost identical to mine. I have a hard time believing that waterfront like this would decline in value, but if Donald and some others are right, things are going to change dramatically in the very near term.
jgkljalf - Since Vashon is nearer Seattle and a ferry comute is possible, I would assume it has long ago experienced the price appreciation that is now working it's way up Whidbey. I don't have any real information for you.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:38
2B ON2B? Who cares?>(Who cares?): -
Just a test because I'm kind o curious why this would affect 2b's handle but not mine, it must becaus of the separation of word, ie.
the space between the words so maybe there's a change that 2bornot2b
would keep his handle, except slighty modified, so this is a tst to see what will happen... - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:37
Ted @Who cares>(@Who cares): - Hi Who Cares!...It's been happening at other sites besides Kitco ....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:35
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD & MIKE SHELLER: This rarified air is starting to choke me, but before I drop off, lets have a look around. We are starting to get a broader scale series of currency devaluations. Isn't it interesting that it is not getting much coverage in the popular daily press! Still viewed as highly localised problem. When Mexico had it's tequila problems, when you look at the Gold/Dow ration chart, the chart just experienced a little blip. Then it kept going up after 1995. Possibly it will keep doing so, after some form of correction soon. Gold will just go through the floor for a few years. Looking back, the run ups seem to last for more than twenty years, closer to thirty years in reality. The major bear markets seemed to last only 5 to 12 years. Maybe we have more long term bull market to run. ( allowing for a serious correction soon not resulting in a long term bear market ) . There is still too much smart money cash around. This scenario reminds me of the Contrarian Investor column that we used to read a few months ago, via Gold Eagle etc. I also fail to see why the Big guys want a serious finanical collapse to occur when they want the EMU to be successful. Only volatility. This current collapse of currency just seems to be leading towards a new APEC financial regime to be put into effect. It is all very calculated really.
Another observation. The peaks/troughs since 1979 seem a lot closer together on the Gold/Dow ratio chart. From 1930 to 1966, the peaks & troughs seemed to roll a lot more ( wider spread ) . I suppose this is due to information speed & extensive use of derivatives/hedging etc.
At the moment, the PE's are obscene, but there are still a few companies around with some potential. But it is not wide spread.
RE: Harry Schultz guru. A year ago he recommended an equal spread of stocks & bonds, apart from the typical gold/currency holding. Both bonds & stocks have done well. So he earns his money for this year. Am watching closely now though!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:35
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: Bear in mind that the present distortions and maldistributions of personal income have come about with the full conivance of the very same govt., you hold in such reverence. Given the geoeconomic changes that have occured over the past 20 years, the present plight of the working man and woman in the western world, would probably have developed with or without govt intervention.
There is no excuse for the wholesale skewing of income distribution that has taken place but, please keep in mind, that it is the moneyed interests that have been influencing govt policy with the only vote that really matters. Money.
As long as govts continue to have influence to sell, they will do it and no power on earth will prevent it. As the Chinese, rightly understood, it goes to the highest bidder. Without regard to party or superficial public persona. Your nifty half dozen, or so, favorites are included.
Some bright sunshiny day, not in our lifetime, people will discover that the only solution will be to severely limit the powers of govt. .... and maintain such status with the constitutional equivalent of holding a gun to their collective heads. Short of that, all reforms are doomed to failure. Pick your favorite pony and shout your fool head, if you must, but in the end, the race was determined before the gates opened. Money talks. All the rest walks. .... IMO. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:35
Speed one last time>(one last time): - Cherokee: The British won. They lost a ship to a missle. They did not have a single Nimitz class carrier, nor did they have even one SM-2 AW missle. The Brits asked us to help them with our more advanced technology and we politely refused, choosing to remain neutral. The disparity between the British and the Argentines in the early '80s was much less than that which exists between the Chinese and the U.S. in 1997. Do the Chinese have anything more modern than the the old French Exocet missle? Can you name it or describe it? The U.S. regularly steams through the straits between Taiwan and the mainland to assert Freedom of the Seas. Any missle, land based or otherwise fired at a carrier battle group, can be detected and shot down at ranges of up to 1000 miles, which is well outside the range of even a nuclear blast. This is possible because part of the carrier air patrol is a model of electronics warfare plane with both look down radar and considerable jamming equipment and a complement of anti-radar missles. Their stuff has to use radar to hit our stuff and we can see them and shoot them down before they can get within range of us. You still have not named nor described a single weapon in the Chinese arsenal. So I will continue to assume that you don't know and therefore this thread should be wound down. I wish you well, I'm going to catch some zzzz's.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:28
6pak Puetz @ 23:04>(Puetz @ 23:04): - Puetz, why is it considered a state of being afraid ( fear ) . When a
person posts, and has not provided an e-mail address ?
I consider it not to be an issue. I can not understand, why, you would
suggest that a person is afraid ( in fear ) , because an e-mail address did
not accompany a persons posted point of view, interesting. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:27
Ted @Leaner>(@Leaner): - Hi Leaner! Thanks for trying to help...When you get me away from hammer+nails,I'm lost...root directory ( huh ) I better get an expert....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:25
Strad Master A conundrum!>(A conundrum!): - D.A. ( The one who is into White Metals ) : Re your 22:30 post. Would you hold the same to be true for such things as collectibles? I'm grappling with the thought of selling my Strad ( We're talking BIG money here! ) . I've been collecting various opinions via e-mail from a variety of sources and now am throwing it out to you and the group for input. If inflation hits, I should hang on to it as it will continue to increase in value. ( There are only 600 of so in the world and not all of them are in the fabulous shape mine is in. ) On the other hand if deflation hits, selling it now would facilitate paying off our mortgage and having lots to spare to invest or just hang on to - generating income. Later, after prices go down I might have enough from investing to buy back a comparable instrument at lower prices. Of course, if the Y2K problem hits with a vengance all that money will evaporate ( not good ) . Added to this mix is the fact that even in the Depression a good Strad lost NONE of its value. A great one was sold in 1929 ( before the crash ) for $21,000 and the same was sold again in 1933 for $21,500. Of course, the demand for Strads diminished but still they were saleable. I have a fine new instrument as a spare and played all my recent concerts in Europe with it so I can get by, but in some ways might prefer the cash to invest and make life easier - especially with a third little Strad on the way and after lots of egregious losses in the metals market thanks to a bunch of ill-timed moves. Anyway, you can sense my ambivalence, so I'm collecting all the info I can so as to become thoroughly confused and paralysed. I think though, that this sort of real-time conumdrum might make for interesting speculation while we await tomorrow's open. Thanks for the input. Thanks, too to GEORGE S. COLE for the response to my Rydex question. Most appreciated and very informative!
PS: Also to the other D.A. I second D.A's motion that you amend your handle. The first D.A. has been around giving brilliantly considered market thoughts for quite awhile now. I always read everything he posts. While yours may be equally brillint, it is extremely confusing to not know who's posting. Many thanks for your understanding. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:24
leaner reply.ted>(reply.ted): - If you can get into your root directory it will show you how many bytes of information your running, in some cases you might need to do some house cleaning before you see some positive response from your computer. Get a pro if your not sure how to go about the house cleaning. She'll come around!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:22
Who Cares? Ted & Win95>(Ted & Win95): -
Ted - simply don't use the dial-up or Netscape. Log off,
shut them down. Bring up something else, like Word or
Solitaire. Run them. Does the system still freeze?
Yes? You have a local problem on your machine.
No? It's probably Kitco. : ) There's nothing you can do. ; )
For myself, I have occasionally had a bad website/Netscape
crash Win95.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:16
Ted @Leaner>(@Leaner): - Leaner: Haven't been loading any new software....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:13
Ted @Panda>(@Panda): - Don't have a virus detection program runnin....at least that I'm aware of
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:13
leaner reply.ted>(reply.ted): - It sounds like you need more hard drive, when you load software on your hard drive you need to leave at least 20% of the hard drive free of material or she'll freeze up!! Might need a 1.2 giga byte hard drive or plus, just a thought!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:11
Ted @Panda>(@Panda): - Windows 95....The shootin stars in the netscape bow just freeze..Iez stupid about these things...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:10
panda @zzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzz): - TED -- Got to hit the hay, will catch you in the A.M.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:08
panda @>(@): - TED -- What are you running for an operating system? DOS/Windows 3.1 or Windows 95?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:08
WW @NE>(@NE): - Steve:: The question is will the people want more or less govt help when they feel less secure. Especially after we have had such an increasing divergence in wealth. The ans is clear a new progressive era will begin with the demise of the Wall St. inspired financial ponzi scheme.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:06
panda @Huh?>(@Huh?): - TED -- Do you have a Virus detection program running? You may have picked up an unwanted guest from the 'Net. That's only one possibility.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:04
LSteve @home>(@home): - It does seem that the mining issues are under accumulation. We've seen relatively low volume with modest price increases. People just are not willing to sell their mining issues at this stage of the game. I think if we were to see Gold retest $317 then we might see some more price pressure. But to tell you the truth I think this pendulum has reversed course. The action on Friday really has me taking notice. Perhaps it is time for the dog to have his day. P.S. Ted, please go sea kayaking around 10 a.m. tommorrow. That always makes gold go up.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:04
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Lurker: First, are you afraid to identify yourself? At least give an e-mail address. Second, regarding the crap thrown at RJ, it would be appropriate if you could give an example of what you are talking. I will admit I hit hard at RJ at times, but I was always hitting hard with logical agruements. RJ posted some of the most ferociously bearish arguments here at Kitco. What I threw at RJ were equally hard arguments that countered his. Only time will tell which will be right. I still expect a violent deflationary depression -- a depression in which gold will soar because our present monetary system is collapsing.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:02
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD: I don't think you are too far off the mark re: your Gold Ratio extrapolations. It certainly helps provide a much longer view picture.
It is very cyclical. I think we will definitely get a big buy from the buy on a dip crowd next time round. Keep up the good work!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 23:01
Ted @ I need help>(@ I need help): - Any computer experts out there...Every few minutes when I click to access something my computer just freezes up and won't respond to any clicks...on anything!...and have to shut down the computer and start all over again...Could this be my ISP or does it sound like my computer?
Am ready to take my hammer ta the damn thing!.. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:56
david goldfevr2pacbell.net>(goldfevr2pacbell.net): - cherokee@22:41:: thanks for this scenario & comparison of China/US, & Brit/Argentine. Now, tell me, do you have a monopoly on truth ?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:49
david goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - PJ: nothing is ever personal in 'love', war, &/or investments. If you would find a long-term comparison chart, of say, HM ( -Homestake Mining ) , compared to gold prices, you will see that the lead-scout phenomenon, is on track, and on schedule. ... And, if you will chart an 'obv', or on-balance-volume value/plot/line, for the stock, HM, as well; you
will see, even more vividly, how the 'strong, quiet, big-money', accumulates its positions, silently, patiently; and long before the turn....the turn ( up ) ...in gold. And this is: 'NOW' . - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:49
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz): - Hong Kong gold story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/10/z0000_2.html
Thailand bailout story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/10/z0009_17.html
Good night all.................................... - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:49
lurker lurker@home>(lurker@home): - Puetz and your 21:37 post-On the other hand, maybe he
decided it's not worth the time and effort to continue
to post logical, rational, and well thought-out arguments
to those, like yourself who only respond with The stock
market is going to crash tomorrow and gold is going to
skyrocket. ( After several years this sounds like a broken
record ) . He hardly deserved the crap thrown at him.
He was not a hepcat. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:47
2 Glassman likes gold stocks now>(Glassman likes gold stocks now): - comments on Freeport-McMoRan, Placer Dome, Newmont, Homestake,
Barrick, Euro-Nevada, Franco-Nevada from today's Washington
Post business section article by James Glassman:
begin quote{
Gold stocks: How low can the price of gold go? It recently was
$318 an ounce, a 12-year record, down an incredible 25 percent since 1990.
Gold has long been considered the ultimate safe haven because
it's supposed to be a constant store of value in a world in which
governments have an incentive to dilute their currencies.
Unfortunately, gold -- and gold stocks -- have had a terrible time
in the past decade. Precious metals mutual funds, for example,
have fallen an average of 1.9 percent annually since 1987 -- and
24 percent in the past 12 months.
But gold is so low that it may be reaching a bottom. At any rate,
unlike high-flying stocks, gold doesn't have a long way to fall.
There are still some courageous gold bulls out there, including
Adrian Day, who edits the Investment Analyst newsletter
( 410-234-0691 ) . He recently reminded readers that sentiment on
gold has gone to extreme negative levels. So, clearly, he wrote,
this is a good time to buy gold bullion and bullion-type coins as a
longer-term investment. It's also a great time to accumulate the
best of the gold stocks.
Topping the list is Barrick Gold Corp., generally considered the
best-managed gold-mining and producing company, with 11 sites
in North and South America. The stock has fallen more than 25
percent since December.
Charles Allmon, a notorious bear who has been an uncanny
stock picker for more than 20 years, says that Franco-Nevada
Mining Corp. and its companion company, Euro-Nevada, are
the only two gold shares in my managed accounts. They also
comprise two of only six stocks in the model portfolio of his
newsletter, Growth Stock Outlook.
Franco-Nevada, which like its sister trades on the Toronto Stock
Exchange, has increased revenue and profit for 11 straight years
despite the declining price of gold. In late June management
predicted that cash flow would rise 400 percent by 2002.
With inflation apparently under control, gold may seem an odd
place to stash your money. But the key word is apparently. At
these prices, high-quality gold stocks could be safe havens:
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., Placer Dome Inc.,
Newmont Mining Corp. and Homestake Mining Co. } end quote
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41
jgkljalf jfajf>(jfajf): - DA:
Whats happening on Vashon, price wise? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41
panda @>(@): - Donald -- Overseas markets aren't that big ( deep, liquid, whatever the term you want to use ) . Globex isn't that reliable due to the relativly few contracts that trade after hours compared to the day trade. After hours on DBC suffers the same problem, to few contracts traded to make a serious conclusion on.
Lurker -- try this
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/core/dbc/squote.htx?SOURCE=core%2Fdbc&TICKER=pa%3Du7+pl%3Dv7+gc%3Dq7+gc%3Dz7+si%3Du7&tables=table&format=fractions - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WW: It doesn't matter what people perceive. Reality is what counts. People can think the US is capitalistic all they want. But it is not. The degree of socialism in a country is determined by the amount of government spending relative to total spending. I don't know the exact numbers ( maybe someone out there can help me ) , but something like 30% to 35% of all spending is either federal, state, or local spending. Hence the US is 1/3 socialistic, 2/3 capitalistic. That's in stark contrast to 70 years ago -- when 95% of spending was in private hands.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:41
cherokee @another-view>(@another-view): - speed---
the point here is one of relativity.
the argentines were sporting some hot basic systems that
kicked the brits butts. the brits were using state of art ( at that time )
detection and suppression systems to counter threats to
their main battle groups. they were overcome, and lost
many lives and material as grave testament to their arrogance.
i have never stated that the us navy is not the best naval
force in the world, and the most powerful to boot. projection
of this power on the other side of the world in ANOTHERS
sphere of influence has worked many times in the past.
the mitigating factors with china are quite different
this time.
china has historical ties with taiwan and other non-communist
neighbors. they have a score to settle with japan over their
many invasions. it would not take a lot for the us navy to
come steaming to the rescue, again. they have many arenas
with which to create the opportunity with which to draw in,
and show who controls the waters around taiwan, hong kong,
AND the japans. don't forget about indonesia and the vast
oilfields in this region of the world. what happened when
china told the us not to steam through the taiwan straits?
well they can, with missles, blast anything that floats
in their arena. can china project power outside of her
soi excluding the nuclear threat? absolutely not.
could a us navy bg steam into the taiwan straits and survive
a major military confrontation? absolutely not. their
land based systems would annihalate the bg in due course.
don't assume you know more than you do of others. you don't.
read all data to stay with the train of thought.
THEIR sphere dude, their sphere.
the brits vs. the argentines
relative to
the us vs. the chinese.
the technological advantage enjoyed by the brits in the maldives
is probably close to the current gap enjoyed by the us over the
chinese. a major surprise attack by the chinese on ONE of our battle
groups in THEIR sphere of influence ( soi ) , would be one-sided and quite
decisive. the next battle group would require another chapter to this
be written. our vessels, during a conflict with china, in their
soi, would be bottom dwellers. facts, only facts.
cherokee!; ) reader-of-the-book, chaser-of-the-fact, smoker-of-the-truth
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Maylisia down 2.48% Do you hear a Ringgit-ing in your ears?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:38
PJ still@a.loss>(still@a.loss): - david: I still fail to see why gold shares going up is a reliable predictor of future bullion rises and not merely an indicator that the price has stopped falling for the moment.
One thing for sure is that there have been many optimists here picking the bottom all the way down from $400 last year. I'd just like to understand why this one is a better reason to buy bullion than some of the previous ones - nothing personal! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:36
D.A. its.the.other.way>(its.the.other.way): - Donald:
According to globex the dollar is up vs both the Yen and the DM.
I'm off to sleep but tomorrow I shall pose to you a few questions regarding gold as money. To allow you to prepare for battle, I let you know beforehand that I think that a commodity based money system is not good. Bon Soir. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:32
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Long Bond yield is 6.628, virtually unchanged, but the dollar is down 0.5% to 1%. Fed at work?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:30
D.A. re.real.estate>(re.real.estate): - D.A. with property in Washington:
From a long run perspective I cast my lot with Aurophile and the long wave up, which should produce higher commodity and stuff prices. Real estate is most definitely stuff, so it should do well in this environment. I don't know the particulars of the property that you own nor do I have any clue as to how it fits into the rest of your assets so I couldn't begin to hazard a guess as to whether to tell you to sell it or not. My bias in this environment would be towards agricultural land and towards upscale property. A world which has just taken on a few billion new capitalists is going to produce some very wealthy individuals and a mass of people whose living standards are going to increase from a very low level thus implying an outsize demand for stuff. I think the real opportunities are at the top and the bottom of the real estate pyramid. The risk to the top end of the market is a serious decline on Wall St. causing some forced liquidations and also removing a sizeable demand segment, those who have been wallowing at the Wall St. money trough. I can't figure out any real risk to the agricultural land sector as the demand is growing radically and the supply is shrinking.
P.S. If you could change your handle I would be most appreciative. Since I often read my own posts I will become hopelessly confused as to what I have written if I have not in fact written it. See.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:28
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - With my portfolio at an all time high, I feel motivated
to thank all of you here at Kitco, for the great posts
and info you provided. A SPECIAL thanks to George Cole
and Gold Eagle for an effort that only can be decribed
as OUTSTANDING! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:28
Ted @Hang Seng>(@Hang Seng): - Hang Seng down 311.70 ( 1.9% ) ....Things a little volatile tonight!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:27
lurker lurker@home>(lurker@home): - George Cole-what's the url for the DBC? Thanks
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:26
panda @>(@): - Next weeks economic calendar http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/calendar.html?source=core/dbc
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:25
david goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - PJ @ 22:11 post:: are you kidding !? Mining shares are under heavy accumulation, by big, big money; for the last 6 weeks this has been obvious; for the last 6 months, this has been more subtle; for the last 6 trading days, the fuse has been lit: blast-off ! ( Mining shares are the lead-scout, for every bullish turn-around/bottom, in precious metals; you distract yourself with such conjecture as your 22:11 post. )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:21
panda @>(@): - Donald -- Try http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSBOND.HTML-SSI for bonds.
Just for comparison;
Spot gold at 326.90 up $3.05
GCQ7 at 326.1 up $4.60
GCZ7 at 331.1 up $.70
Long Bond at 6.628% -0.007 - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Yen up 1%, DM up 0.5% against the US dollar. Does anyone know what the long bond is doing?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:13
panda @EBN vs DBC>(@EBN vs DBC): - TED, Puetz -- The EBN price is the spot gold price. Yes it is 'up' from Fridays close. The DBC quote that GSC likes to use, is currently the December gold future contract GCZ7. It's somewhere around $330 at the moment. Hope this helps.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:11
PJ home@new.zealand>(home@new.zealand): - Mooney: Hear hear. I have been lurking here for over a year and couldn't agree more with your 21:36 post.
All: It has been deduced that recent incidences of the XAU performing well might predict some future upward movement in gold. But surely with the price of gold staying about the same for the last 3-4 weeks and the stockmarket making new highs, isn't the strength in gold stocks really only attributable to general stockmarket bullishness? I fail to see why strength in gold stocks ( historical and present ) is due to anything more than a bit of courage returning after a ( sharp ) fall in bullion has previously resulted in a pessimistic outlook for mining companies. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:09
david goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Mooney@Politics, 8/10/97, 21:36 post...But Mooney!, this is freedom !!! I agree that we salute kitco, et al; but this is freedom: it is messy, self-righteous, rambunctuous, foolish, stupid, incoherent, forgiving, creative, productive, generous, compassionate, and sublime.
Democrats & Republicans must continue to sling it out; it is but a metaphor of our current reality's duality. And in a world of peoples and nations increasingly infatuated with, compelled by, dedicated to, lost in, sacrificing for, terrified by, FREEDOM, we must be willing to put up with a lot, perhaps everything ...perhaps even Democrats & Republicans...... ( -just, 'be secure, in your gold ' ) . - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:09
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Donald ( 19:53 ) : In tune with an earlier post of your's, 19:53 is another indication that whatever the source and content of your education, we are all much richer for it. Whoever taught you is now teaching us all.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:08
klaslkdf jfka;jfakljaj;ajjfkldsjfklajfkajfjdkasjfajfajfjfkladfjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj>(jfka;jfakljaj;ajjfkldsjfklajfkajfjdkasjfajfajfjfkladfjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj): - George Cole:
The __Prudent Bear Fund__ can they go long the mrkt if they think conditions warrents? It seems they can buy warrents and futures - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:05
D.A. Inflation or deflation. That is the question.>(Inflation or deflation. That is the question.): - D.A. - I wish I had the answer to that. One of the investment decisions I have been wrestling with is that I have a piece of waterfront property on Whidby Island that is worth quite a lot. Do I sell it, pay capital gains, and put the money to work, or do I leave it? Time is on my side, as higher property prices are creeping up the island ( mine is on the north end farthest from Seattle ) . If you or anyone at Kitco has any thought on this, I would sincerely appreciate your input.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:01
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - EBN reads:Gold up 3.20......Nikkei down 359....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 22:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: OK, I see what you are doing with the line etc. You seem to assume we will have a broad top like 1966-1973 that stretches things out to 2013. I suppose that is possible but you are placing a lot of faith in the governments and central banks of the world to work together to paper things over and patch things up. It is true they have been doing that for many years and getting away with it.
My readings and postings of the world daily news tells me that things are at the boiling point. It is not just Mexico this time. Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Japan, Kenya are all coming apart at the same time. Japan is an important player, it is not a Mexico. Then there is the US Bonds, consumer debt, the Middle East, the EMU, all that hitting the fan at once. Also you have a US stock market that has exceeded every traditional measure of excess established since the buttonwood tree. For more gasoline on the fire we have a possible Washington scandal erupting into impeachment. I just can't look at all that and peg 2013. Next Tuesday seems more like reality. That implies a spike top more than a broad top for this cycle. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:58
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WSF ( 18:27 ) : Your words are a loud echo of my own sentiments. Speaking for myself only, it amounts to nothing more than romantic foolishness .... and yet; it cannot be gotten rid of. .... It also forms a poor basis for a rational investment strategy as well. If only because we will likely never see the world we envision. ........ Too much Ayn Rand. I'm sure of it.
Puetz: I agree on the impact of the Virtue of Selfishness. I bought a copy in the Toronto airport in 1967 and could not put it down. For good or ill, it changed my way of thinking forever. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:49
WW @NE>(@NE): - STEVE:: Which way a country turns depends on which force is deemed to hold primary influence before the depression. Hate to disappoint you but most Americans do not view the present situation as socialist but rather deficit reducing and downsizing efficiency capitalism.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:47
PatS @chemical lobotomies>(@chemical lobotomies): - Depression? What depression. We have PROZAC!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:45
6pak George S. Cole @ 21:03 >(George S. Cole @ 21:03 ): - The Golden Insanity
O,let American be America again-
The land that never has been yet-
And yet must be--the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine--the poorman's, Indians,
Negro's, ME
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again......
O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath--
America will be !
Langston Hughes - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:41
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WSF: Our day may finally be arriving -- marketwise. Politically, depressions normally turn a country toward socialism or capitalism. In the 1930s, the US turned toward socialism. In 1989, Russia slowly turned toward reforms in the direction of capitalism. Ditto for Chile in the 1980s. It will be interesting to see if the US moves back toward capitalism once the coming depression takes hold.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:39
DJ Dow/gold>(Dow/gold): - Donald - Don't start throwing around the M words. You'll lose me. Mine was a simple mechanical exercise. No more significant than that. If you draw a line through the center of the CPI-adjusted historical DOW, it intersects 1997 at the level 3500. If you do the same with your DOW/gold ratio chart ( not so easy ) my WAG is that the mean is around a ratio of 8. With DOW at 3500 and the ratio at 8, this would put gold at $437.
If the cyclical nature of the DOW adjusted chart is extended, and a grinding bear market is assumed, as opposed to a crash, the DOW would hit bottom sometime around the year 2013, at a level of DOW 2000. Looking again at your ratio chart, the bottoms are roughly at a ratio of 2. ( I think 1980 was an overshoot ) . With DOW at 2000 and a ratio of 2, gold would be at $1000.
Is this exercise of any value? Some I think -- if you place a value on history. For instance, I was surprised that the market could drop by more than 50%, and gold could still be in the low $400's and still be consistant with historical DOW/gold ratios.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PatS: I have to be careful what I say. When I said my generation I was talking about the whole planet, not just Americans. Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Eichmann, Stalin et al are part of my planetary generation.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:37
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Earl: RJ has gone into hiding since gold started rallying this week. He made some strongly bearish statements recently.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:36
Mooney @Politics>(@Politics): - Mac, Mike, oldman, aurophile, WW, George, Byron, Puetz and ALL - I do not object to reasoned, pertinent political comment, ( such as Puetz' 16:32, oldman's 16:33, Jack's 16:19 or George's 16:02 ) , its just that most of us here have been exposed to the on-going American political debate about which party has the better 'moral' record to the point of exhaustion. Consider for a moment; would we North Americans on Kitco like to be exposed constantly to the intricities of the present ( 90's ) and past ( 1900-1990 ) political machinations of, for example, the various political parties of France or Italy? If about 10 posters from these countries started up a dialogue that seemed to ( at peak times ) take up about 90% of the space that Bart has been so kind as to give us and, this nonsense were to continue week after week, month after month, would it not be an unbearable intrusion on the time of all others who come here from every other country except for France or Italy? This is, in effect, exactly the show we are quite often putting on for the rest of the world. A little - O.K. A lot - . Tripe is tripe.
Speed @19:03 - No apology necessary. Your analysis has pertinent aspects sadly lacking in the 'Who's better - Repukeagains/Dummercrats' controversy which refuses to leave these pages to head to the fertiliser factory where it belongs.
Donald @18:50 - I know that I RECEIVED a SUPERIOR public education than my CHILDREN :- )
D.A. @18:48 - Right on Bro! Where were you when I needed you? I refer to my Flagging fortunes. Ah, but the emotions are fun and the spice of life, n'est pas?
Earl ( and DJ ) - Re: RJ - I too have been wondering as he didn't even put in an appearance after I posted a few lines in his honour, ( take note Honour - not Honor - whomever was trying to learn Canadian - English actually ) , that he had requested de moi ( Miss Piggy - French ) .
RJ - Get yer butt back here! ( American )
Prognosticator @17:42 - What you describe may or may not happen ( Hamlet ) but it is similar to what I have described as the 'second shoe dropping'. If it does play out that way I'll be in gold and silver with both feet! :- )
Half an hour to game time. See ya. ( Canadian - recently being purloined by Americans ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:36
PatS coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Donald -- buy/read the book. :- ) She's pretty savvy in her niche, and recognized so. Last I saw she's teaching at a University in Mexico City.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:35
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - S&P futures are now trading down 3.40. They were down almost 7.00 at one point shortly after the opening tonight. Looks like volatility is increasing. Gold only up .50 against NY close.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:34
WW @Ne>(@Ne): - One country under the S&P 500 with liberty and justice for them Great quote I saw today.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:33
Ted @Puetz>(@Puetz): - Hi Steve! Don't honestly know....just got online after a six hour blackout, went to EBN and that's how it read...George's DBC of up .30 sounds more rational!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:31
Speed @home>(@home): - Miro: I agree
Reb: Keep in mind that Japan and China are mortal enemies. Japan invaded China during WWII and really tore up the country. Since WWII, China has fought a civil war, and been in shooting conflicts with India, S. Korea and U.S., Vietnam and Tibet not to mention many border skirmishes with the old Soviet Union, now Russia. There will be wars and rumors of wars until the end of time. If China is circumspect, it is only out of respect for strength. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:29
Ted @Mike Sheller>(@Mike Sheller): - Thanks Mike! Nice ta hear from ya....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:27
Donald @Home>(@Home): - 2BO2B: Can you try that Judy Shelton post again or a shorter version of it? I still can't get the last part on the screen. She knows her stuff.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:25
PatS coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Donald - the generation and before did a pretty job this century getting
the order correct between which comes first, the individual or the state,
beginning with Flanders Fields where the poppies grow
Row on row.
It's hard to see an individual of any generation remain confused
about what drove the conflagrations and mass horrors; and worse piss
on their ancestor's price. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:24
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - DONALD! We are all under development, including our philosophies, and all our philosphers, including you, and, including me. None of us are older, or younger. We are all timeless, just like gold. It is truely, just that simple. And as you already know, the truth, will set us free.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:22
George Cole gold price>(gold price): - Gold up 30 cents on DBC. I have found they are more accurate than EBN
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:21
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Ted: Is that up $2.65 from Friday's New York gold close?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:19
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Ted: It looks like the markets are starting out tonight where they left off Friday -- stocks down, gold and silver up!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:19
REB na>(na): - The discussion about China/US military confrontation is interesting, but I recall a post here some time ago ( Polar Bear, Milhouse, Panda? ) to the effect that a direct confrontation is inconsistent with Eastern philosophy about how to achieve one's goals. From this point of view, why would the Chinese choose to take on the US in such a manner. Personally, I am watching for increasing diplomatic ties between China, Russia, Japan, India and even Taiwan. Then the US becomes irrelevant in the Chinese sphere of influence and in the meantime they can still take advantage of us economically and gain control in their sphere of influence. The Japanese aren't ready to say this ( I think! ) but I don't think they would miss the USA one bit if they could get free of our influence.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DAVID: I attempted to distinguish between the ideal of the future and the reality of the present. It is not going to happen overnight, or mabye not at all. My post was meant to show how seriously this gold business is to mankind. We have this wonderful tool in our toolbox and only have to pick it up to begin the repairs. The discussion about a future war gave me that opportunity. I am older and have had an opportunity to develop a philosophy, right or wrong. I am trying to influence those of you who are younger and still have your philosophy under development. My generation did not do a very good job with its century; I expect your generation will learn from our mistakes and do a better job with yours.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:15
Ted @WW>(@WW): - Evening Bro!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:14
panda @>(@): - George S. Cole -- Corporations have their own brand of politics, coporate socialism. They claim to capitalist business men, but... they're really socialists. The will use government to pass enviromental laws that they can afford, but will put their smaller competitors out of business or hamper them significantly. Then they will claim kudos for 'doing the right thing', all the while concentrating power for themselves. This is but one example. I see it all the time in 'corporate America'. If you want to get ahead, you have to play their game. If you don't, you're marked. Most corporate types, from mangers to CEOs, are not 'conservative' or 'right wingers', they are usually statists.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:13
Ted @Mike Sheller>(@Mike Sheller): - EBN gold up 2.65 and Silver up 2 cents...Hi Mike! My ISP has been down for six hours and just noticed yer missive...Will read...now...and you got the exact time commin back at ya....Asian equity markets down so far ...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:13
WW @NE>(@NE): - GSC is right and I believe he like myself is in the progressive pro-working people anti corporate elitest camp. Anybody who spouts this garbage about greater effeiciency and new era technology as a reason for destroying workers lives is a traitor to the cause of freedom. GO TEAMSTERS GO RON CAREY GO GEPHARDT AND KENNEDY!!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:10
George Cole OZ>(OZ): - Nick: Thanks for the Aussie site! Just what the doctor ordered.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:07
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Speed, I'd never throw my eclairs at you, or anyone else; but I'd gladly trade them for a few more ounces of gold. ... right here, right now.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:03
George Cole the right>(the right): - Mike Sheller; There is right and RIGHT. I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT THE LIBERTARIAN RIGHT AS REPRESENTED BY PEOPLE SUCH AS YOURSELF. I am talking about the the corporatist right that dominates both parties today. They don't give a hoot about the indivdual, the living standards of American workers, or values of any kind -- just the bottom line of the Fortune 500.
OLDMAN: I get the distinct impression you are a Ross Perot supporter. He is not my ideal President, but would be MUCH better than the current crowd. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Donald@Home, 8/9/97 20:44 post:
Your 'sugestion' that all the nations of the world agree on this universally accepted standard of commerce, exchange, and preservation of wealth/savings, i could not be in more agreement with. However, it is not up to gold, to assert this role, and judge with such power & equanimity, as you've suggested. It is only upon the willingness, whether willingly given, or 'dictated' by the winds of change, that the 'triumph' of a world-wide monetary standard/system, based on gold, will establish
itself. Not likely in this century, nor perhaps even in the century to come, it will depend on the consciousness, and intent, of sufficient numbers of the peoples of the world, to wish to live in integrity, and in harmony with such truth. Until then, the rich, will get richer, and the poor will always be, with us. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01
panda @gold!>(@gold!): - Ebn has gold up $3.50.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: I hope you found the chart worth the work. I am not sure I understand your comment. It seems as though you feel Dow 3500 is a bottom. I think not but in truth I can't be sure. It would seem to me that a bottom for gold, and by default the Dow Gold Ratio, has to reflect all the U.S. currency actually printed, and still in circulation, since we came off gold in 1933. That is not M1, M2, or M3, but existing currency only. In other words, gold is fixed, currency fluctuates. Today the market says that is $325. I think that the market is searching for the correct number.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:01
Miro It looks good for gold>(It looks good for gold): - So far all markets down ( Japan, Australia, New Zeland, etc. ) and gold holding steady.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 21:00
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Before I get hit with a cream filled eclair, let me state that I am in favor of a return to a gold standard. Donald has made the case quite well. I think many of you ascribe too much power to precious metals and neglect the bent nature of man. Commodity based money restrains but does not prevent the various economic evils like inflation, depression etc. Excessive credit expansion can still happen with a gold standard, human nature will find a way.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:53
PatS coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Aha. Relatively speaking - Talking to politicians about the economy is like talking with eight-year-olds about sex. They have heard all the words, but they haven't clue. M.A.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:48
Miro Speed - probability of conflict?>(Speed - probability of conflict?): - Speed: I have no doubt on my mind that the US Navy have some of the best
men and the best war technology there is. I know, I worked with some
of them. OTOH, to win a conflict, you have to make a decision to use
them … and to spend a lot of money. Yes, the decision was made to build
two new carriers, but this decision was made not only on the strategy
( though if I remember right some of the navy strategists were arguing
for shift to smaller battle ships ) but also on a political support
( read jobs ) .
Using this power in military conflict ( real conflict, not just to flex
our muscles on some Somalia coast ) will be a different issue. The Desert
Storm would never happen if the agreement to share the cost was not
reached. The US would not do it alone without financial support from
our allies. To go into major conflict ( e.g. China over Taiwan ) the
support will not be there ( domestic or from abroad ) .
Other than that, I agree with Donald, that the major conflict is very
unlikely from either side. Though we may see a lot of muscle flexing
and some parties taking advantage of it.
JMHO
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:47
Speed @peace through strength>(@peace through strength): - M. Graves: Your point is well-taken. The discussion began Friday, when I objected to a remark about non-nuclear naval capabilities. The chances of a confrontation with China are slight, of an all-out war, remote. One reason for this is that we have a strong deterrent in our military. I am not in favor of sabre rattling, but do favor a ready, strong defense.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:44
D.A. aha>(aha): - 2b:
Might I suggest leaving out the question mark from your handle. It would appear that this is a special character in the operating system with regard to file names. Since the posts are stored in the database using the handle as part of a filename your handle apparently creates an invalid filename or causes the retrieval program to fail. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DAVID, SPEED: I do not believe I am assigning any powers to gold in the metaphysical sense, that certainly was not my intent. I am merely recounting its actual role in 6000 years of history and suggesting that it would be beneficial to mankind to let its role be reinstated by mutual agreement of all the nations of the world.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:42
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Donald - I dunno, I'm using the latest version of Netscape...?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:41
test asdfasdf>(asdfasdf): - asdfasdf alsdf l;al;ksdf jl;akjsdf;kljl;l;asf l; al;ksdf jkl;j asdkl;f jkl;al;ksdf jl;k faskl;djfl;k jl;as dfl;al;skdfl; as l;fjl;kasd jflk; asl;dkf jkl;asjdfl asdl;f j;klj;asd klfj al;sd jfl;k asl;df l;as dfll;asdf l;as dfasdf lla sdfklaskl;df alksdf jkl;asd jfjklj a klsdfkl;sdf klasd fkla jfkl al;sdkf jakl;sd jf al;sdf kl;asd flk laksd jfla ksdf klasdlf al;sdfjakl;s jdf aklsdf jkl;as jfkl asdfklakl;sdf kl;asf l;kas dfl;k ja;sdfkl alskdf akl;sd jfkl;asjd fkl; akl;sd fklas dfl;as jdfkl; asldf
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:39
2test xxx>(xxx): - asdf asdf
asdf
asdf
asdf
asdf
aa;lskdf ja;sldf asdfj;l al;skdf ja;lsdkf al;skdf jal; ksdjfl;asd jfl;ajsdf;l;alsdfjal;sdf l;askdfj;aklsdf al;s kdfj;l asl;df j;l al;sf klasdlpf l;a sfasl;d faskl;dffklas f jkljl;kasdf j;kl;als f jkll;a jksdf kl;;alsjdf; lakjsdfl;;la jsdfl; jal;sdf j al;sd jkasd jflk j l;asd jfl;kasd jfajsfkllas l l ;asdfjl;asd jfl;k jl; akl;sdf j;laks jdfl;k jl;kasdjf;klajsdl;fjl lasdfkl jal;sdf j ;lkasdjfkl;ajsdf jksdfjakl;sdf kl lkjasdl;fkjl;k j fasdfklasdkl;f j - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:34
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Speed - Ms. Judy Shelton structures much the same arguments in her
book MONEY MELTDOWN; Restoring Order to the Global Currency System
in making her case for a return to a classical gold standard or at
least something of a mooring for currencies. With a greater depth and breadth of knowledge, clarity of thought thus writing, she's quite
persuasive about war, fairness, and the liberal/conservative cases
for a rational currency base and her iconoclastic view doesn't come off as the ravings of a lunatic. Though a knowledge and awareness of the seriousness of the issue one comes away with can easily sound that way
in less capable hands. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:33
D.A. another.way>(another.way): - DJ:
Since you are looking at a chart of the Dow in the constant dollars, it may be more appropriate to consider the denominator rather than the numerator. The real damage done to the chart in the seventies was from the soaring CPI not the declining Dow. This may well turn out to be the way this one turns out over the next decade or so. High prices for stuff, increasing labor costs and stagnant profitability. Since this is the path of least resistance for the governmental debt piles it is the most likely outcome. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:29
DJ China as a competitor>(China as a competitor): - It is a well understood axiom of business that having a strong competitor is healthy. Without a stong competitor companies soon become arrogant, sloppy, neglectful of their people, and begin to value talent and competence less than brown nosing and politicing.
I think it is the same in the global environment. Without such a a strong, dangerous competitor, we get leaders like Clinton and the rest of the Washington mush-for-lunch bunch. Our military becomes weak and demoralized. We lose core competance. We accept poor and ineffective schooling of our children, and deemphasize the basic math, engineering, and science skills that are necessary to keep us globally competitive.
Short of an actual war, I think having a strong economic and military power such as China is becoming can do us a lot of good.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:28
Leszek new>(new): - Tokyo down over 300 points
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:25
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - DONALD @HOME & your 8/10/97, 19:53 post: Sounds like you're assigning to gold, the powers of an objective spiritual law, and perhaps of a condemning, self-righteous god. With all the terrifying attributes you attribute to my precious horde of gold coins & tiny ingots of bullion, and my mining shares 'to boot', I wonder if I should just dump them all here, right at the bottom, and head for the highest hills !
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:25
M.Graves @Valley >(@Valley ): - Speed... I'm Canadian and look at things a little different, if there is a confrontation between the U.S and China, it won't matter who has what.
Nuclear power is the weapon of the 90's and if China get's desperate , who knows? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:25
D.A. table.are.open>(table.are.open): - All:
With the casino once again up in running it looks like the weekend has not brought out the bargain hunters. SPU -385. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:21
Donald @Home>(@Home): - 2BOR2B: Whenever you post something that require me to click on the more words follow I get an error and can't read the rest
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:13
Speed @ The Golden Calf>(@ The Golden Calf): - Donald: I have never read so many anthropomorphisms about gold in my life. A reality check finds that gold is inanimate, lifeless, unable to reward or punish, unable even to move itself, even if cast into an idol and worshipped. Gold stops wars only if it is used to buy off the aggresser. The real God esteems gold so lightly that He paves His streets with it. Stay cool man.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 20:00
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - aurophile ( i ) :
Byron: Here's a Nockism for you: Circumstances being as they are, one has no trouble about seeng that a State-controlled system of popular instruction is bound to lean heavily to the side of training, since the trainable masses stand immeasurably in excess of the educable few.
Memoirs of a Superfluous Man, 14,v.
Now, of course there are no trainable amongst the masses either, only indoctrinable.
________________________________________________________________________
Retook Econ 101 along with 2&3 after twenty years a few years back.
Funny, no mention of FA Hayek, arguably one of the two most influential
figures in that discipline of the twentieth century, along with his
nemesis, Lord Keynes. Not in the text, glossary, index nor nine months
of evening economics classes. Or Von Mises et al, the whole Austrian
School nor the thinking of its inheritor, the Chicago School. Sins of
omission, I guess.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:55
DJ Gold vs. CPI>(Gold vs. CPI): - Donald - I printed, taped, and studied the DOW/gold charts you refered to. If you recall my comments on the CPI-adjusted DOW, I said the middle of the channel between the cyclical highs and lows was DOW3500 for 1997, and that a grinding bear market would take the DOW down to 2000 in year 2013. It is hard to eyeball things on this chart because is is semi-log, but I would guess the median is around a ratio of 8. DOW at 3500 and gold at $440 would do this. Sounds OK. Your the low DOW/gold ratio is about 2. DOW2000 and gold $1000. This work for you?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:55
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - On a more relevant note: China's intentions with respect to Gold.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1002.htm - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - SPEED, CHEROKEE: We can not consider a future war the way we have looked at them in the past. It is not an Army-Navy game with a tailgate party where we cheer for our side. The next war could be the end of civilization, all life as we know it on the planet. Most wars of the past were trade wars. Part of my reason for being involved with economics, and with gold, is because I feel that an economic event could lead to the destruction of the planet. Gold has the power to enforce a non-political resolution to many of the things that have in the past led to wars. It has the power to achieve the things that the liberals want, and the things that the conservatives want. Gold is an automatic computer, it rewards and it punishes without the bias of race, color, creed, national origin, or heredity. It is totally impassionate about all of the frailities of humans. It doesn't care where you live, or where you went to school. It doesn't care who you know or how many guns you have. It doesn't care where you worship or if you worship at all. It is fair and it is honest. It rewards hard work and it punishes stupidity.
Gold is not perfect. It can be stolen and you can be cheated out of it unfairly. It knows nothing of rules. That is where government comes in. It is the role of government to properly resolve those events of dishonesty or misunderstanding that are a part of all human interaction.
I know that I describe a world that is presently far from reality. I understand that military readiness is also part of the responsibility of government. That does not mean that we can not start thinking about a perfect world of the future. I mentioned to Cherokee once before about the indian belief of land ownership. They felt that they were only temporary custodians of the land, they did not have a sense of ownership. We do not own this planet either. It is our responsibility to do whatever we can to pass it on to our heirs in better condition than we found it. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:18
Byron @ Imprinted:>(@ Imprinted:): - Donald: I was raised in a Catholic orphanage from the age of 3 to 12. Boy, did I get an education.!!!! : ) Out of here for the day. Tomorrow. Boom- Boom. Maybe.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:11
Nick @ Aussie>(@ Aussie): - To George Cole
I have a chart of Australia's Gold Index going back to '85.
It would be a good chart to post here as it shows the dramatic downdraft
experienced in '87 in Gold shares in Australia.
Also daily stats on the gold index can be found at http://www.dicksons.com.au/daily.htm
If you or anyone else would like a copy of the Australian Gold Index email me on
sharefin@cairns.net.au
Nick
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:03
Speed smoke gets in your eyes>(smoke gets in your eyes): - Cherokee: Friday, I responded to another negative comment about the U.S. Navy. I am specifically speaking of the capabilities of the 1997 U.S. Navy. You have brought up the British navy, old army rifles, millions of chinese infantry and artillery. Do you really know anything about the U.S. NAVY? Nothing you mentioned has anything to do with the NAVY. The navy won't have to fight chicom artillery, infantry, or millions of men, unless they all suddenly learn to float at high speeds. There is no comparison between the British fleet at the Falklands and the British fleet today, much less our fleets ( plural, because we have more than one ) . Can you name and/or describe a single Chinese vessel, or weapon system, recount it's range, capabilities etc? I suspect that the answer is no. You can't pound an issue until you know something about the issue. What I am hearing from you is a transference of negative mood from U.S. politics ( sorry Mooney ) and pending economic volatility, to an undeserved and unlearned opinion about a truly outstanding assembly of men and women in service to their country with an arsenal that is second to none. Clinton is deserving of your scorn, but get some facts about the U.S. Navy before placing your bets on the Chinese even scoring a near miss. You neglected to answer my query as to what scenario would bring one or more of our BGs into conflict close to China. I'll cheerfully pound the issue with you and get a navy tech to help tomorrow, but get some facts or we are just hollering to be heard. Just to help you get started, we ( the U.S. ) have 14 carriers and they ( the Chinese ) have 0. We have 3 more in the works, with the Harry Truman due out in 1998. The Ronald Reagan is next ( too bad, WW ) . The Chinese have none in the works and so on. Glad your back on board, BBL.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 19:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WW: I saw this earlier but did not post it as it did not reference gold. Your comment may be correct, many think the EMU will never happen. Perhaps because of the political independence described in this article.
European Central Bank: Beyond
independence
FRIDAY AUGUST 8 1997
The US Fed is a better model for Europe's central bank than the
Bundesbank, writes David Mackie
The European Central Bank ( ECB ) will arguably be the most powerful
central bank in the world. It will set interest rates for an economy roughly
the size of the US, but it will have even greater independence than the
Federal Reserve. Like the US Fed and the German Bundesbank, the
ECB will have the freedom to define its own monetary target and the
independence to set interest rates to meet this objective. In addition, the
ECB will be insulated from political influence in three ways.
It will have no obligation to publish any meaningful account of its
deliberations or justification of its actions. It will have little real
accountability, either to elected European governments - via the council of
ministers - or to the European Parliament. And its mandate will be
enshrined in primary European constitutional legislation ( the Maastricht
treaty ) - and hence almost impossible to challenge, or change.
When this powerful constitution is combined with the hawkish culture in
European central banking circles, it is evident that the ECB will take a very
tough line against inflation, regardless of what European politicians might
want.
Central banks' constitutions should seek to ensure independence, openness
and accountability. In practice, the ECB's constitution emphasises
independence at the expense of the other two. In this respect, its design
reflects the views of most of those who advocate a powerful central bank.
Yet it is clear that all three characteristics - independence, openness and
accountability - influence how a central bank behaves. This can be seen by
comparing the two institutions that are usually lauded as examples of good
central-banking practice: the US Fed and the German Bundesbank.
Both are independent in terms of setting and pursuing their monetary
objectives. Yet, in terms of openness and accountability, these two central
banks are at opposite ends of the spectrum.
The US system is transparent. The minutes of the monetary meetings are
published fairly quickly; ultimately, so is all the relevant information used in
the policy-making process ( in the so-called Green Book ) . And the Fed is
accountable to Congress, through the highly visible Humphrey-Hawkins
testimony, and through Congressional oversight of the Fed's budget and
regulatory activities.
In contrast, the German system puts almost no emphasis at all on openness
and accountability. The central bank publishes little information which really
explains its actions, and it is not directly accountable either to the German
government or to the German parliament.
The differences between the monetary frameworks in the US and Germany
clearly reflect history. The German monetary framework is imbued with the
memory of two hyperinflations this century and with the political
subordination of the Reichsbank - the predecessor of the Bundesbank -
during the 1930s.
Given this, it is perhaps understandable why the German central bank is
insulated so much from the influence of politicians and why, in the German
model, openness and accountability are seen as threats to central-bank
independence. It is only possible to insulate the central bank in this way
because the Bundesbank retains enormous public prestige.
In contrast, the US system reflects a society which puts a strong emphasis
on checks and balances at all levels of government, and which demands
that the public has a right to be informed about government decisions. An
open central bank fits comfortably into its broader political framework.
In addition, the memory of the 1930s depression legitimises the political
accountability of the Fed. In the US it is clearly recognised that monetary
policy can be too tight, as well as too loose. Indeed, the joint tasks of price
stability and full employment are given to the central bank in the Federal
Reserve Act. This helps explain why, Fed chairman Mr Alan Greenspan
recently felt the need publicly to defend the decision to raise interest rates
against critics who thought the Fed was holding back economic growth.
How does the ECB measure up? Its constitutional structure reflects the
history of European monetary union. The blueprint for Emu was drawn up
by a committee of central bankers, who were inclined to stress
independence and downplay the role of openness and accountability. And
given the dominant role of the Bundesbank in the Emu, it is not surprising
that the Delors Report suggested a Bundesbank-like constitution for the
ECB. It should also be recognised that the Maastricht treaty was signed in
the aftermath of German reunification and the collapse of communism. To
the extent that some countries, for example France, may have had
reservations about the power of the ECB, these concerns were ignored
due to the overriding political requirement to lock a united Germany into
the EU.
As a result, the ECB's constitution is based closely on the German model.
It is independent. But it is neither open nor accountable. The Maastricht
treaty expressly forbids the publication of the minutes of the meetings of the
ECB's Governing Council, preventing the ECB from following the more
open policies practiced in the US. The architects of the ECB, following the
earlier architects of the Bundesbank, took the view that when it comes to
central bank independence, more is unambiguously better.
This extremely powerful institution will be inhabited by a hawkish group of
central bankers. Across Europe, central bankers are of one mind when it
comes to their role. They view monetary policy as a matter of ensuring
stable monetary growth in the medium term which will result in low
inflation.
In something of a contrast with the US Fed, most European central
bankers play down the role of monetary policy in managing the business
cycle. The combination of a powerful central bank and a hawkish culture
among central bankers is often ignored in discussions about whether the
euro will be a strong or weak currency. It seems likely that the central
bankers of the ECB will not only want to achieve low inflation. They will
be able to as well.
But the particular structure of the ECB's constitution may raise tensions in
the medium term: Emu's monetary constitution may ultimately be viewed as
unnecessarily secretive and insensitive to legitimate demands that
institutions should be accountable.
The Bundesbank model has worked well in Germany because of German
history and the enormous popular respect that the central bank commands.
It is far from clear that this model is appropriate for a broader group of
countries that do not share these particular historical concerns.
In some senses greater transparency and accountability do act as a
constraint on independence. But at the same time, greater transparency
and accountability would significantly increase the legitimacy of the new
European Central Bank. And in the long run, it is the legitimacy of the new
central bank which will ultimately determine the success or failure of the
Emu project.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: I was in the public school system during the time Mr, Nock was alive, starting in 1938. We had two options in high school. A commercial course or a college course. I know that I got a better public education than my kids.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:48
D.A. much.truth>(much.truth): - WSF:
I believe that you have touched upon a very important point with respect to this group and its diverse views of markets, politics etc. I believe that many of the opinions here are formed not from a dispassionate analysis of the facts which are in evidence but from an emotional desire to have the world conform to ones own perception as to what would be good, right or just. This can at its simplest form simply be the talking of one's book, or a more complex phenomenon where we try to find value in our own selves by creating a world in which our deeds and thoughts would be deemed worthy. I have found it to be a rewarding excercise to examine my investment rationals in the context of my own emotional needs. It is surprising how much one's emotions can influence ones decision process even when intellectually it is well appreciated that this is not recipe for market success. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:46
Byron @ Time Travel:>(@ Time Travel:): - My 18:36 post. Duplicate of earlier one. Mystery to me.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:45
WW @NE>(@NE): - As a person with immediate German ancestry I can tell you EMU is dying if not dead.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:42
Byron @ Post Saturday Night Readings:>(@ Post Saturday Night Readings:): - Aurophile: Glad to hear that you are familiar with Albert Jay. His Memoirs is his best ( IMHO ) . He also wrote a book on education in the U.S. but I have never been able to get my hands on it . Probably out of print. But he did paint a fine picture of the educational process in the country at his time. ( Training process really. ) Would have loved to have heard his comments on the TV media industry. Sure he would have had a few observations. 5th avenue must have thought they landed in nirvana when the television came on scene!! : )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - EARL: If Congressman Bob is actually Senator Bob I am sure he will appreciate your remarks, being a tounge in cheek man himself.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:36
Byron @ Missing All The Action:>(@ Missing All The Action:): - Re: Saturday Night. Why does all the fun occur when the library is closed!! : )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:32
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Congressman Bob: Are you sure your not posing as our former Senator Bob Packwood from the WW state of Oregon?
He was the fella inclined to include a selection of boxed wines as seduction aids, as you may recall. All of vintage quality, of course. While he was also capable of screwing us all night, ( you might recall the tax SIMPLIFICATION act of the 1980s ) his physical prowess was reportedly something less. ..... In any case, keep us updated on your affairs. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:27
WSF NC>(NC): - Puetz- I share your philosphy and admire your perserverence wrt the economy in general and stock market in particular. I sometimes wonder, however, if my opinions ( similar to yours ) are formed not so much based on what must happen structurally, but rather on what must happen for me to be able to tolerate the world in which I live. The current path, with little or no integrity in any facets of society, leaves me unfufilled, whether or not I am participating in the silliness of the bull market.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:24
Spud Master ...>(...): - Speed: In 1942, the Japanese did not possess a missle or plane, which we cannot detect and shoot down at a considerable distance from any BG. They still stomped the hell out of us at Pearl Harbour.
Why? Because we were materially & psycologically unprepared and unable to accept that they would cheat like that. Not cricket, old man. Fortunately, the aim of war is to win, not play fair. Speed, the Mainland Chinese do have a huge blue water fleet: their merchant fleet. I don't need billion dollar aircraft carriers & Aegis crusiers to destroy the US Fleet - just harmless looking merchant tankers that one day open their hold and begin pumping out self-guided mach 3 sea skimmers. By the time the reality of a high-seas Chinese sneak attack sinks in, it will be too late for the US Battle Group. No one can currently stop a simultaneous missile attack. As Cherokee said - it only takes one missile to get through to trash a capital ship - torn up electronics, antennas, computers, ruined test equipment, etc. The Chinese will be hurling a lot of relatively cheap sea-skimmers at our fleet, while we fire off ( if there is time ) a lot of VERY expensive SM-2 missiles. Now, Speed, HOW MANY SM-2 missiles can an Aegis cruiser guide at once? 5? 10? 50? 100? And how many of those SM-2 missiles will WORK, and HIT their Chinese counterparts?
These usually engagements go to the one who wields surprise. The Chinese thug-lord-political-leaders ( ala Stalin ) are doubtless cunning and ruthless individuals. By the time our naval personnel radio back to the Red House ( no doubt he will be asking the his Indonesian masters what to do ) for permission to fight back, the Pacific yellow fin tuna will be dinning on US seamen.
On the other hand, why bother with a naval sneak attack? It's likely cheaper for the Mainland Chinese to simply continue buying our politicians. Whitehouse for sale.
Spud
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:21
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: I went to bed early because no one was posting. I get up and see I missed all the fun too. Go figure.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - EARL: Re the Washington Times. It is owned, lock stock & barrell, by Rev. Sun Yung Moon. Everything in there meets with his personal point of view. They have uncovered some great stories and help keep Washington honest but you should be aware of their bias.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:10
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - BTW. Where the hell is RJ? Anyone seen him? Is he suddenly keeping a low profile for some reason? .... MUst be skatin' on the boardwalk. Huh?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Cherokee ( 12:25 ) : Great overview of current military position. ..... Dovetails with an article in recent Wash. Times Weekly to the effect that AF morale is at a very low ebb. Rated officers are leaving in droves because of constant deployment for meals on wheels missions and lack proper training missions to hone air combat skills. That of course is added to the touchy feely outlook of general officers as a result of too much 'lacrimose' Pat Schroeder and her cotery of new camp followers.
Interestingly, it was also reported that reliable spare parts were also a problem. Overhauled engines for the C5 were suffering a 65% reject rate, on the flight line. Isn't the C5 necessary for long range deployment? I thought it was. .... Hardly worth considering, as long as current office holders achieve a relection rate in excess of 95%. ......... As usual, the 'right stuff' is still there as it has always been; where the rubber meets the road. It's too bad that leadership, continues to be a problem. The next promotion and a cushy billet remains more important than the defense of the nation. Duty, Honor, Country are no longer a part of the mix. It's new era, don't you know. ...... Dave Hackworth's URL is an interesting visit occasionally. .... Hackworth.com
What do we learn from history? .... That we learn nothing from history. Unfortunately. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:03
Byron @ Missing All The Action:>(@ Missing All The Action:): - Re: Saturday Night. Why does all the fun occur when the library is closed!! : )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 18:02
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PROGNOSTICATOR: Last time you posted you commented on the Dow/Gold Ratio chart. Can you give us an Elliott Wave opinion on it?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:51
Miro do you have to do all good posting on weekends? ;-)>(do you have to do all good posting on weekends? ;-)): - Wow, it looks like I missed a lot of fun on Kitco this weekend. However,
getting away was in order, and a weekend full of bay sailing, + some
mountain biking, was great too ;- )
UPS strike? I would say go teamsters! Increase pressure on benefits will
be good for gold ( BTW, I think it’s long overdue ) . I believe in the
opportunity for everybody, and while I agree that the teamsters
management is as much corrupt as our politicians, it may be the only way
to gain some leverage in negotiation. CEOs don’t need one - they are
doing well no matter if the company is loosing or making money. BTW,
the recommendation, that instead of striking people should just leave
and get another job, does not work very well. In today’s workplace you
can loose a lot of benefits when changing jobs ( unlike CEOs )
I see that the discussion on the US military superiority over China
continues. Don’t forget one important issue. Looks like the peace
through negotiation policy of our administration did not work very well
and conflicts are breaking out all over. Due to a significant cuts in
military budgets we are currently NOT capable of involvement in multiple
conflicts. E.g., when DOD needs to make decisions like should I fix Y2K
or pay Bosnia bill it does not give me too much confidence that we can
go into Middle East and Far East at the same time. All it would take is
for our adversaries to coordinate their actions ( and it looks like some
of it is in making - e.g. China/Iran ) . BTW, watch for what that would
do to the inflation, balanced budget, etc. - If I took a cynical view,
it would be a good news for gold.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - CHEROKEE: As I have said, I don't know much about military matters but I can't think of a reason why China would want a confrontation with the US.
If the answer is Taiwan I can tell you that there are already reasons to believe that there will be an improvement between Taiwan and the mainland. There is already indirect economic interaction. It may take another generation on each side but it will eventually be one China again. There is more for China to worry about internally right now. I hear that they do not have effective control of the interior. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:42
Prognosticator @Elliottwaves - out on a limb>(@Elliottwaves - out on a limb): - FWIW S&P futures will go up this week, making a new high of at least 975. Friday's close was 936.4
T-Bond futures will turn around this week and head up reaching a high of at least 115-16 before heading down again.
Gold futures will go down reaching an orthodox low of at least 310 to 311 before starting up on, I hope, and impressive bull run. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:39
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WSF: Ayn Rand's writing has had a positive impact on me. Her ideas on selfishness ( The Virtue of Selfishness ) was a great book that dealt with the reality of how people behave ( not the way others want them to behave, or think they should behave ) . Ludwig von Mises' book Human Action is another excellent book that deals with this subject. However, Human Action deals more with the economic aspects of the selfish nature of mankind.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:37
jgkljlf gjlfkaxslf>(gjlfkaxslf): - TW, last year a fellow that was a director on several gold company boards said that if gold broke $425 there would be hell to pay. Since gold is a lot lower now, I expect that $425 is lower now also.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: George Cole is correct about the political future and gold. Eight years ago Russia was as far to the left as a country can get. This week, they are allowing their citizens to hold gold by a law to take effect on January 1, 1998. That is political progress that was forced by their previous political failure. It took the US 40 years to reach a similar point, to allow citizens to hold gold again.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:21
DJ Driver of what>(Driver of what): - cherokee - My curiosity has gotten the better of me. What is the ssmfat anyhow?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:09
cherokee @winds-of-war>(@winds-of-war): - speed---
it appears as if you believe that china has made no
advances from her bolt-action rifles they used to
kick-butt in korea. ( for a while )
one of her top generals said that they have been PREPARING
for the destruction of the us fleet in THEIR sphere of influence.
we calmly go about business as usual. a large scale attack
with overwhelming numbers would blast our entire asian fleet
out of the water.
we do have a capability of hitting a bullet with a bullet, sometimes.
once again, some would get through. as the hms sheffield would tell
you, it only takes one to destroy ANY ship. the chinese have overwhelming
numbers of men AND tried and true artillery, mls, and the promise that
they will use them on our fleet in the near future.
with the us being in the weakest military position since ww11, and
having a draft dodger in the cat-birds seat at the white house, we
will see major moves against us before klinton leaves office.
our enemies have helped to get him where he is now. the chinese
have been caught red-handed influence peddeling at the highest levels.
is their agenda in our best interests? do you think that they are
not aware of our capabilities from a military perspective? do you
think they would prepare for a military conflict without having
systems ready to defeat or counter our technological marvels?
will the us be able to muster the support necessary to keep
sending men out to war in CHINA, while welcoming the body bags
back home? our days as world-wide policeman are over. all we
need is one good butt-kicking ( china, in their territory ) an
maybe we will become isolationist again to resolve some endemic
problems at home. liberals need to be offered a residence in
mexico or some other 3rd world country so they can physically
help the struggling oppressed masses. let them give of themselves,
instead of giving that which was stolen from the taxpayers. let
the nwo take the blame from the diaspora that is around the next
corner. there are many with many plans, and speed, you have front
row seats. arrogance has no place in military theaters, it causes
much death and overt suffering. if they attack our fleet, you
better call captain kirk for a fresh supply of dilethium crystals.
cherokee!; ) dotssmfatimm
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:07
6pak Hell For The Working Stiff @ Canada (Police)>(Hell For The Working Stiff @ Canada (Police)): - United Steel Workers of American - as seen from a Canadian point of view.
UPS and Teamsters, both of these organizations are in Canada.Same master,
same position. Working stiff, gets the stiff end, as by design. Unions
are in fact, *POLICEMEN*.
Moreover, steel companies, which had vigorously resisted collective
bargaining and even, in some cases, the Co-operative Wage Study, learned
the value of the new bureaucratized work relations.
Hamilton Ontario Canada, 1946. 81 day strike, 1000 workers stayed inside
the plant, and worked. They were known as the Loyal Order Of Scabs
State legislation had not only bound the employers to recognize their
employees' union, but also confined workers to the rigid channels of
legally enforceable contracts and grievance procedures.
Disruptions to the flow of production could be minimized when the union
officials became the *policemen* of work relations. The steelmasters'
long-standing concerns with predictability thus had a new solution.
A visitor might also have noticed the babble of strange tongues among the
workers in the plants, since the companies had learned to make full use
of inexperienced, tractable, transient labour from continental Europe, in
order to extract the maximum from the new equipment and to push up
productivity.
Twelve-hour days, harsh, autocratic supervision, and high accident rates
were the results. Mass production in the steel industry was born.
Henceforth, work relations were governed by a negotiated rule of law
which would guarantee equitable treatment on the shop floor, job security
and, if possible, a decent wage.
The labour movement's old adage of a fair day's work for a fair day's
wage had finally won some acceptance in the industry. What did not
change fundamentally, however, was the actual organization and execution
of work.
The early twentieth-century transformation of the labour process survived
intact, and the steel companies could continue to use their highly
mechanized, sped-up system of production to maintain and increase
productivity.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:06
Mike Sheller @ George, by George>(@ George, by George): - GEORGE S. COLE: re 16:02 - Good Lord, Man, would ye sell yer soul to the Devil? Would that gold nivver moved a mite, and mankind became libertarian all, I would count it a worthwhile sacrifice...and me bein' long gold as tho there's no tommorow !
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:04
WSF NC>(NC): - Puetz- Am I correct in sensing some Ayn Rand influence in you?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 17:02
Barb-ette @barbadoe ranch>(@barbadoe ranch): - RE: Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:56
Congressman Bob ( @ushouse.gov ) :
Your candor is impressive, however, I thought it was Ted can't keep my pants up Kennedy. Go gold? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:59
DJ Crash ahead>(Crash ahead): - goldfinger - I'm not a crash proponant. I was only reponding to the chant proposal of DOW1000 in 2000. I said this would require a major crash that would way overshoot previous historical lows.
Do I think we are in for a major market reversal? Yes. I'm not an economist, or a serious student thereof, but I see too many unsettling things going on just in my daily life. I get 3 phone calls a week offering credit cards, with incentives. I get another call every other week from a bank or financial insitution offering home equity loans, no credit approval required. Last week while surfing, I saw Louis Ruckmucker interviewing the manager of a Young Investors Fund -- come on kiddies, break open your piggy banks, and let me show you how to make real money. The most impressive chart I saw from Ross Perot was the one that showed manufacturing jobs going steadily down, and people getting government paychecks going up - now exceeding manufacturing jobs by far and still rising! Unbelievable! We have an immoral, unethical, lying con man in the white house whose popularity has never been higher. Both political parties are run by a bunch of hacks in the pockets of various special interest groups, who are selling our country down the river, and no relief is in sight. The term forward feedback refers to an unstable situation that feeds on itself and self destructs. Clinton could never been elected unless there were enough votes from people getting government paychecks, getting public handouts, getting pork from a corrupt government, and/or people so mindless that they can be easily infuenced by propaganda. Once you reach this point, and this group has enough votes, we have reached a point where forward feedback is in effect. We are there, or nearly there. This situation can only be reversed by the effects of severe pain. It is inevitable, and I am not looking forward to it!
Can the DOW drop below 4500 while this is going on. I think Prechter's book At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was written when the DOW was around that level. I think it is possible and likely. When is another question.
In the meantime, I will try to keep my assets and my family safe. I will learn from RJ and invest with the trends, not try to fight them, and I will count on you and others at Kitco to help spot changes in the trends. I think we are approaching a very brutal, volitile market. Opportunities to make or lose a lot of money. Best of luck to all of you.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:53
bw Re: 6pak, land of the free>(Re: 6pak, land of the free): - 6pak: I am afraid you may be correct about a reason for the coming depression. Although I can not understand why one half or our lives is not enough for the bastards. Is not one half of 100 is better than all of 20? God, guns, grain, and gold.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:41
oldman !!!>(!!!): - Jack: Its hard to leave here sometimes. The Contract With America was a PR ploy which had zero effect on the country or its markets. What really made a difference was when The Slick One called a defeated congress in for a Lame Duck session in December '94, and with Newt's help, cajoled, threatened and bribed enojugh votes to ram GATT through. THAT DAY began the great bull run that has more than doubled the wealth of the average coupon clipper while real wages have actually declined. cul8r.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:36
aurophile i>(i): - Byron: Here's a Nockism for you: Circumstances being as they are, one has no trouble about seeng that a State-controlled system of popular instruction is bound to lean heavily to the side of training, since the trainable masses stand immeasurably in excess of the educable few. Memoirs of a Superfluous Man, 14,v.
Now, of course there are no trainable amongst the masses either, only indoctrinable. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:35
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Aurophile: I have to agree with you. Donald does a great job here at Kitco.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:32
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WW: Everyone, including yourself, looks out for themselves first. In a sense, we are all selfish. That is the ultimate compliment of mankind -- we rely on ourselves. That's why we survive so well. To force individuals and organizations to pay taxes so that other individuals and organizations depend on receiving this re-distributed in contrary to man's best interests. This movement toward socialism always weakens the economic and financial foundation of a country. This creeping socialism, which we have in the US, is part of the reason we are headed toward a Total Collapse. Socialism has never worked. Furthermore, WW, I guarantee you that it will never work in the future either.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:23
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: a Spyder is a S&P derivitave that trades on the AMEX as SPY. You can buy it long or short it.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:23
oldman *>(*): - G.S. Cole: As usual you're right on about the connection between the success of labor and gold price. Unfortunately the g ( n ) utless Republicans are poised to grant Slick Willie fast track trade negotiating authority, which he will use to bring the rest of the third world into competition with American wage and salary earners. Its good for Rubin and his NYC buddies, make no mistake about it.----And for those of us who hitch a ride on the NYC wagon. Its hell for the working stiff, though. Gone for a week of trading. Bye.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:21
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Byron - Nock: It occurred to me then, how little important it is to
destroy a government, in comparison with destroying the prestige of
government.
There's little defense against ridicule, grin it to death. Blowing
up buildings on the other hand serves to enhance prestige. Particularly
in the indiscriminate killing and maiming, rightly so. Humor, not
zealotry, given dead seriousness and utter hilarity more positively
covariable than mutually exclusive.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:19
Jack IMCO In my conspiratorial opinion>(IMCO In my conspiratorial opinion): -
Gold was ready to make a big move; then the Rebublican's Contract With America created an investment boom to the extent of creating the public opinion of Who needs Gold. We had some consensus on a balanced budget and they figured that the markets will fly ( OF COURSE THE SAME TYPE OF LIE THEY MADE IN THE EARLY 1980's ) . When they saved Mexico, over both congressional and public opinion, the die was set -Extreme confidence was in- and the currency rise that followed is evidence. Those foreign suckers believed the crap and we are now feeling the results. I hope the crap hits the fan soon. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:12
Mac Quiet@down>(Quiet@down): - Mooney,
Pipe down and let them talk. If a choice must be made - you're out!!! Give us more Bob!!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:10
oldman $>($): - Mooney: If you think the bitter fruits of liberalism have fallen only on U.S. soil ( us specific ) , there are some parts of Toronto and London ( eng, not ont. ) that I'd like you to visit tonight. You can analyze the metals market without paying close attention to what our liberal Western politicians are doing if yuou want, but you do so at great risk, IMO.
Good trading to all this week. BBNWknd. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:07
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Night trading ought to be interesting when the markets open in another 6 hours. The markets should be volatile.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:03
DJ Short spiders>(Short spiders): - Front - You said you would short the S&P using spiders. An interesting visual image. What's a spider?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 16:02
George Cole politics and gold>(politics and gold): - MOONEY: I've said it before and will say it again. The better the teamsters and American labor in general does, the better gold will do. To the extent that political trends influence the gold price, there is no reason why they should be banished from this site.
The big swing to the political right these past 18 years has been THE MAJOR FACTOR BEHIND THE GOLD BEAR MARKET. A swing to the left or the populist center in the years ahead would do more for the gold price than an announcement by the world’s CBs that no more sales are contemplated. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:45
KGB VON Tventy VON Vee Mak Kontribuzion>(Vee Mak Kontribuzion): -
Vee mak bigg Ruble kontribuzion for KongressMann Bob Kampaign for Amerika Prezident an gif him vfree trip to Moscov fur advize. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:44
6pak Donald @ 14:23>(Donald @ 14:23): - Ottawa - Washington Dateline.
Likely, as not, the hand writing is on the wall eh!
The pain that must be had, before, the citizen is up to speed, as to
what is at hand.
Keep up the good work, re: postings. Take care! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:40
Mike Sheller ah shucks>(ah shucks): - MOONEY: Aw, c'mon Mooney. It's the weekend serial at Kitco. It gets so lonely here Saturday and Sunday without a little acrimony. So it's a Yankee failing. Don't be so hard on us. Besides, the political structure has an ENORMOUS effect on what will happen to the gold market. Why, look at what those damned liberals did to the whole stinking WORLD in the 60's, that finally worked its way thru as inflation in the 70's. Not to mention rending the fabric of society and bringing civilization to... ok, Mooney. Sorry. I get your pernt.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:35
Mike Sheller @Bob, spelled backwards is...>(@Bob, spelled backwards is...): - CONGRESSMAN BOB: Sir, no kidding , America ( and Canada as well ) nededs you bad.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:32
Mike Sheller @the house>(@the house): - CONGRESSMAN BOB: At last a straight talkin' politician who tells it like it is. You candor, your outspokenness, your chutzpah! are magnificent. I think you are the breath of air America nededs and deserves to show her the light she once was to the world. Do I have any pledges to the CONGRESSMAN BOB FOR PRESIDENT campaign? Dig deep and dig often Kitcoites. This is the man to carry the message the Free world needs to hear. I wish to place, in nomination...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:30
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Sorry old friends, but it's the truth!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:27
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Here we go again!
Just about once a month ( as regular as 'ol faithful ) the never-ending Yankee penchant for foisting their wretched political drivel/debate seems to infest Kitco. It usually starts with some inane comments such as those made by WW last night. WW and others - Please note: this is primarily a forum set up for the purpose of analysing the world's precious metals markets. Certainly we get off topic from time to time and this is often useful and enlightening to the world-wide participants participating and lurking here. However, the hours of political crap that many have to wade through to find useful information is delitirious to to the health of this site ( and quite probably to the mental health of said participants ) . Please, PLEASE take such U.S. specific, acrimonious, political, meanderings ELSEWHERE. ( There are, apparently, other sites dedicated to such useless twaddle ) Although it may be great fun for Yankees to continue this ceasless debate, please be assurred that it is extremely boring for others who come here from other locations around to world to enjoy our GOLD forum.
BTW - WW - Re: your comment: God Bless the Teamsters!!!
Is that what God did when Mr. Hoffa went Missing? :- ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:11
oldman $>($): - aurophile: Strom was alright til he got on social security and became a liberal.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:08
Donald @Home>(@Home): - CONGRESSMAN BOB: Who is your favorite Congressman, other than yourself of course?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:06
aurophile i>(i): - Oldman: LOL!!!! But not if Strom Thurmond is president...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:04
aurophile h>(h): - Jack: There is no doubt about the Rubin/Clinton presidency. Rubin picked him, groomed him, financed him, controls him, and must have the most complete file on him of anyone around. But hey! Look how many spoos points we're up from 1992. That's what counts at the end of the day...:- )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 15:03
oldman *>(*): - WW: Predicting the future by projecting present trends is dangerous, as many investors will attest. Nevertheless I am constrained to note that another decade of Klinton policies will result in Bobby Rubin's friends controlling at least 90% of the country's wealth, and American wages stabilizing somewhere between those of Singapore and Bangladesh.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:56
Congressman Bob @ushouse.gov>(@ushouse.gov): - All you Liberals and Conservatives just don't get it, do you? Why do you think that we call ourselves STATESMEN? We work for the State, therefore we are Statists! We all have a common goal, and that's to remove ALL freedoms that individuals have remaining. And if I do say so myself, we are doing a pretty darn good job of it at that. Why do you think that we play kissy kissy with all those environmental wackos? Do you think that we give a damn about the environment? Heck no, it's all about taking away your property and water rights ( and to get votes ) plain and simple. Why do you think that we are taking away your right to bear arms? To cut down on crime? Right, no it's to remove the possibility that you may one day turn on us and use them, you know like in Unintended Consequences? We are not stupid, even if we act and talk as if we are. Well, a couple of us are, but hey, you voted them in so who is really the stupid one? Why do you think that we always vote for passing new laws and rules and regulations? It's because since we make up the laws, we are above them, that's why they do not pertain to us. We are exempt!
Whether it be Kintorus , Helmsman, Dickie G, Mad Dog Burton, ShummerThis , Frightenstein, or Ted Don't-Let-Me-Drive Kennedy, whomever, ( don't mind the spelling, my executive assistant is preparing for my briefing, No leave on the high heels, Honey ) we are all the same power loving, anti-rights paid off henchmen for the corporate bankers and monopolies of the world, including My Most Favorite Nation - China. ( They pay us real gooooood ) .
Why do you think that we agreed with Klintorus to give away for free the entire Patent Office Archives to China? For BIG bucks, and to help them improve their export markets, why of course….
Ahhhhh, that feels better now that I have gotten that off my chest. This truth thing is new to me, kinda feels good, maybe I should practice it more often, NOT! I'll tell you more later, after all, it's safe for me to assume that no matter what I tell you goldbugs, if you repeat it to anyone, who would believe you anyway?
P.S. You know why they call me All-Night-Bob? Because I can screw you forever and ever! Oh, and to W.W. - keep up the good work, your appointment is coming up for review in a few weeks, should be no problem in getting you that which we promised …
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:56
Speed @home>(@home): - Cherokee: Meaning no disrespect, but you can't take t.v. shows and 15 year old British naval experience and blend them into a reasonable estimation of today's reality. The Phalanx cannon you mentioned is a last measure defense and is effective out to a couple of miles. The primary AW defensive weapon is the SM-2 missle. One Aegis class cruiser carries 80-100 of these and can fire them very quickly. A BG has at least one cruiser and at least one destroyer with these weapons. This is in addition to the CAP from the carrier which also carries missles. Anti-ship missles must be guided by radar, and we can detect, track and kill radar guided devices. ( So can the British navy in 1997 ) . Your reference to the Patriot is to an army weapon not navy. Suffice it so say at this time, the Chinese do not possess a missle or plane, which we cannot detect and shoot down at a considerable distance from any BG ( Battle Group ) they choose to attack. Saying this is not arrogance, it an assertion of fact from a calm, reasoned assessment using up-to-date material. The Chinese do not have a blue water navy and I am curious as to why you and Spudmaster think we would sail our capital ships right up to their coast? Have you seen some printed scenario which demands this?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:55
Jack Hmm>(Hmm): -
Rubin: Clinton to Use Line Item Veto. Is this an order or isn't it?
Remember the Mexican Rescue - Congress was against it, but it flew.
Sometimes I believe that policy is dictated from elsewhere. http://live.excite.com/News/970810/14.NEWS-VETO.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: Better keep your subscriptions. I only post news that fits my point of view. ( grin thing )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:48
vronsky THE INGER MARKET FORECAST - August 7, 1997>(THE INGER MARKET FORECAST - August 7, 1997): -
“The missing word for the stock market is “awesome”... which best
describes extraordinary upside action. It seems Public views market
profits as ENTITLEMENTS - Must RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:42
aurophile g>(g): - Donald: Perhaps there is something to your deflationary bias after all. Since I started reading the Donald Sunday News here at Kitco, I have given up my subscriptions to at LEAST five newspapers and magazines. That's got to be somewhat deflationary in itself!!! Keep up the good work. :- )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:41
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japan now experiencing deflation says JP Morgan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0009_20.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japan says US banks must help with the Thailand bailout.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0009_34.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:32
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Russia and the white metals.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/y0003_y00_3.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:31
WW @NE>(@NE): - The USofA is about a fight between the selfish and greedy corporate elite and the basically progressive minded workers. The stk mkt rise has benefited the greedy elite by making the little guy thinks he has a stake in the process. The financial collapse will be the best thing that ever happened for working people everywhere. Go Ron Carey Go Teamsters/Clinton get some g___ and do what is right!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:29
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Kenya, one day later.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/07/y0004_y00_2.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:26
Donald @Home>(@Home): - The next domino; Kenya.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/06/y0012_y00_4.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:23
Donald @Home>(@Home): - 6PAK: How long before we see a similar story with an Ottawa or Washington dateline?
http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/08/08/international_news/thailandm_1.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - An opinion on stock activity for next week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0000_z00_20.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:16
6pak Land Of The Free @ USofA (B.S.)>(Land Of The Free @ USofA (B.S.)): - I certainly do not wish to get into a food fight, RE: IS USofA *Free*,
As per, the founding Fathers, I as a Canadian say, NO..Nor, is Canada.
This is Why I feel, as I do.:
The Financiers: Supreme Masters.
Today, through their economic control, the Financiers are preparing a
world of absolute control. They will rule universally and totally, raised
at the top of both civil powers united: politics and economics.
Europe's Common Market seems to be the first step towards the world
political government. And the electronic computer will be that man of
such stature that he may command, watch, register, check, censor,
punish all the men of all the nations, each human being of the earth
This computer is really much more than a man: it is a heartless superman,
with diabolic intelligence.
And the International Financiers, who know well that they themselves
control the money of the whole world, have the nerve to talk about the
mysterious cause of actual chaos and disorder. They make believe that
they are looking for a means to pull the peoples from the economic chaos
into which they are sinking. when it is they, the bankers, who are the
authors of the chaos, by the ruthless control they exercise over money
and by the way they regard a nation's currency as a mere plaything, a
type of play that makes the nation *tremble*.
The Canadian dollar goes down and the American dollar goes down in
respect to the Asian and European currencies. But the Canadian dollar is
even lower than the American dollar. The Bank of Canada comes to the
rescue of the Canadian dollar. But that is not enough,etc. etc. etc.
These are the games of the International Bankers, the games of
speculating financiers, the games of swindlers. And worst yet, they are
the games of those who would control human lives, the games of dictators
of tyrants over the people.
Soooo, those here that suggest having a victorious war, and putting
forth such a vivid and lovely arsonal of weapons, to use against
humans. I say: HELL NO, I WILL NOT GO. *Lest We Forget*
USofA came into the first world war in *1918* NOT in 1914.
USofA came into the Second World War in Dec. *1941* NOT in 1939
A lot of Canadians died, long, before the USofA started the same.
Both World War's resulted in the unprecedented strengthening of USofA
capital, on a scope that was worldwide. BLOOD AND GOLD, EH! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:07
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors
FSAGX UP 12.5% in past 22 days - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:06
aurophile f>(f): - George Cole: I rememeber when Joe Granville was at the height of his career and prestige in the late 1970's. He had such a hot hand that his ego temporarily got the best of him and he announced that since he could predict cycles so well, he would henceforth also predict earthquakes in California, based upon seismic data. Needless to say, he did not.
Nevertheless I do remember also that the mundane astrologer, Luther Jensen, DID predict a few quite reliably. So if Mike Sheller can get you to dig up your basement looking for silver, may be Mike can also confirm or unconfirm that earthquake in Japan. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 14:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Gold price rises in Istanbul
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0009_49.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - China claims 394 tons of gold in reserve
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/09/z0009_4.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:54
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Tanzania expects to become large gold producer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/10/asl_sttzf_1.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:51
George Cole Rydex Ursa>(Rydex Ursa): - Strad Master: Rydex Ursa is definitely attractive here, but the gold funds have much more upside. If you make 20% on Rydex Ursa, you can probably make 50% in the gold funds. Because of this I have decided to stick to the gold funds for the time being. Of course, if I was as bearish as Puetz, I would load up on Ursa.
BTW, THE PRUDENT BEAR FUND may be a better bear play than Rydex Ursa. They can short only the stocks they feel are most overpriced while Rydex Ursa will mimic the S&P 500 in reverse. I am seriously considering putting some funds into this one. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:43
Ted @cherokee>(@cherokee): - It's commin my friend........The concept of peace through stength is now almost mocked....Neighbor Eddie just showed...gotta run and try and be a human....maybe I can fake it....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:34
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor @ the Coronation>(The Astrological Investor @ the Coronation): -
By popular demand ( mainly of FRONT & EARL - and you can't get much more popular than that ) The Astrological Investor has taken a look at brother George S. Cole's horoscope ( data supplied graciously by George ) and here is the report:
George's Sun is positioned at 7 degrees Taurus, a tad more than a scant degree from NYSE Venus, my esoteric significator of gold in the New York Stock Exchange horoscope ( 5.25 Taurus ) .No wonder he loves gold so much! He just can't help it. It's Karma. But George is not so uncritical of the shiny yellow as he might seem at times. With his Pluto, planet of underground and hidden concerns at 6 Leo, in a critical 90 degree angle with his Sun, George is always digging deep for the hidden story. If anything, he may wrestle very mightily in the depths of his soul with his analysis, before taking a public position. Then he defends his stand stolidly, and to the death ( also a very Taurean trait ) .
George's Moon is in Cancer - the astrological sign of family and home. These things mean a great deal to him. With the Moon the classic significator of silver, George probably has a basement full of the white metal. Proably in round coin form. His Mars is in Cancer as well, indicating a truly gentle and sensitive man. But he's likely had an explosion or two with his family, and, much as they are important to him, certain relatives have felt his sting.
Currently, Saturn - planet of overwork, limitation, legal situations, worry, discipline, tough rows to hoe, is conjuncting his Venus. George's Venus, planet of nice things, luxuries, feminine favors, is just two degrees away from NYSE Moon - significator of the silver market.
This guy just can't keep away from the precious metals. He's karmically linked to them in every way. His instincts, over time, will resonate with the general moves in the gold and silver markets. Not that we would ever accuse George of being lacking in the intellectual and mental spheres, but he seems to have an INTUITIVE connection to gold and silver that in the end could be far more valuable than any reasoned analysis.
But right now, Saturn sitting on top of his Venus is delaying gratification and perhaps bringing some headaches. Possibly even some problems at this time with women, or a specific woman, but we'll discreetly steer clear of George's private life here.
Short term, the next significant, though relatively minor influence upon George's 'scope will come on TUESDAY, 19 AUGUST, when the transiting Venus in the heavens will line up precisely with George's Neptune in his Solar 5th house, the house of SPECULATION. It's also the house of children, so maybe something regarding offspring might occur in his personal life as well.
We must assume, for our regal puposes, that the fair and lovely Venus will bring charm, honors, and perhaps some measure of riches - either financial or pontifical - for George on or around the 19th. And for those of his subjects who hearken to him on that day. With Venus, the Queen of the horoscope, in conjunction beside his Neptune, this is as good a day as any for the coronation of our ol' King Cole. Long Live King George!
( As an addendum: previewing this reading, Mr Cole has remarked that there was some accuracy here, except I do not now and never have owned any significant amount of silver. My comment: Perhaps sub-basement excavation would prove surprising, and profitable, here. ( :- ) ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:27
George Cole earthquake>(earthquake): - This is the week a huge earthquake is supposed to occur near Japan, according to a few prognosticators. I will be absolutely amazed if it happens. In other words don't hold your breath!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:24
Tw @home>(@home): - Does anyone know where gold would have to go for the smug Producers to feel the heat on their shorts ( no pun intended ) . Is there any level where THEY would really be in trouble?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 13:00
goldfinger WHO CARES>(WHO CARES): - What about the 500 year cycle does this mean anything to you ? Or is this just another turn of the century.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:58
Miz Mike sheller>(Mike sheller): - Your answer is very similar to others. In 7 years, a half of US labor will be part-time workers. It is the first experience, therefore, nobody knows what happens next.
Today I am busy. I have to have a quick lunch and go to next party in the mountain. Have a nice Sunday afternoon everybody. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:55
goldfinger RE: 12:49>(RE: 12:49): - I would conclude you could be right , but my gut feeling is there something else in the cards.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:49
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - goldfinger - my take on it is that the Iranian man and woman in the street have come to conclude their mullahs are a joke in the ensuing years since the fall of the hated Shah. And would welcome Western ways, products and capital. Modern information technology defeats any sieve.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:38
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - WSF - I feature the dwindling savings rate displays the affinity
various forms of bankruptcy-- financial, ethical, educational,
cultural, familial, political-- have for one another. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:34
goldfinger 500 YEAR CYCLE DUE>( 500 YEAR CYCLE DUE): - I would appreciate any commentary from knowledgable individuals on the subject. In my estimation there will be great upheaval in the establishment. In fact some of the Middle Eastern Nations are preparing for what they call a holy war show down with the U.S. and some of the rest of the world. This is a very intereating subject and anyone with information please post your thoughts on this.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:31
Donald @Home>(@Home): - STEVE-PERTH: I make no claim to being a chart guy but I sure do enjoy looking at them. So take the following as Just Suppose: You draw a line along the bottom of 1980, 1987, 1993 to 1997. That crosses 1997 at 15 ounces. As we are at 24.66 now, sharply down from 25.66 last week could we get a panic drop to Dow 5500 and gold 360? That produces a Ratio of 15.27 ounces. It fits my last false inflationary spike theory of several years standing. From the Dow standpoint a 33% drop would be reasonable. A gold rally to 360 is reasonable from this point also. With the Ratio at 15.27 the buy on the dip crowd reappears and takes the ratio to 40, with the Dow at 8700 and gold at 215. From Dow 8700 we drop to 1000, a 90% drop as in 1929-1932. Note the little blip down in 1928 on the Ratio. We could be at that spot today. Remember, all this is pure speculation and not a forecast. Apparently there is a scholarly debate going on between the Elliott Wave guys. Some think we are in a third wave, some feel it is a fifth. I think what I just described fits the thirds camp.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:27
Strad Master The Dawning of a New Age?>(The Dawning of a New Age?): - GEORGE S. COLE: A few posts ago the Rydex Ursa Fund was mentioned.
It appears that the time is nearing when you will be moving your personal funds back into Rydex Ursa? If so, what needs to happen for you to pull that trigger? Thanks for the info. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:25
cherokee @death-due-to-missles=sunken-ships>(@death-due-to-missles=sunken-ships): - speed--
regardless of the superior systems the us navy has
at their disposal, they will not stay the day when
china takes control of her sphere of influence. we
do have the 20mm depleted uranium radar controlled
gatling gun, yes we do. we have massive aircraft
carriers that are crewed by 5k plus naval personnel.
we have many floating vessels including garbage scows
that will most definitely be targetable, tam bien. there
will be a slight logistics problem however.
remember the maldives fiasco with argentina and the uk?
argentina had an outdated airforce using italian super
entendards and french exocet cruise missles. these far
flung forces were sitting ducks in their opponents arena.
one missle = 1 ship. the argentinians blasted several
modern, heavily armored warships from their precarious
perch atop the wind-swept frigid waves at the southern
tip of s. america. do you think the chinese could not
do at least as good, if not better? the arrogance of our
military will be its undoing. we cannot march into foreign
waters like days of old, and whip all with big sticks. the
technological base available to all has changed the way
power can be projected. they have ballistic missles that can
hit the west coast, do you think they cannot hit big steel
vessels close to their own continent? our subs may hurt
their ships, but they will blast our surface vessels out of
the water. the chinese have developed anti-ship
weaponry that will take-out our expeditionary forces before
they arrive to take control of the contested areas. they
can lose 1 million men and just be getting warmed-up, while
we lose a carrier or two and the sentiment at home with
huge numbers of casualties will be much worse than was
seen in vietnam. additionally, if we are fighting another
war ( korea, iraq ) how will/can we, with ever diminishing
military capabilities, successfully fight the largest
military machine on earth? this is the same gov't that
has been preparing for 20 years to defeat our naval forces
in THEIR arena. missle technology will knock-out any naval
task force in future conflagrations involving sophisticated
military machines. what happened to the us ship that had the
same gatling gun system for protection several years ago? it
took a direct hit from a SLOW flying missle and 21 men were
killed! do you remember that example of our great technological
superiority? with the next generation of ship killing missles
available ( supersonic ) , what device will the military put on their
vessels to assure the crewmembers that at least they have some
protection? the patriot missle you say
about time you asked!
the reports from the israel during the gulf crisis reported 85%
success rates with this new defensive system. the missles
exploding ( suppossedly due to impacting the other missles ) in
air over israel seemed to prove that the patriot was better than
predicted. this is far from the truth. a 1 hour program on
the discovery channel exposed the truth about the patriot defensive
system. the records they got from the gov't showed less than a 40%
success of these systems. the erroneous info came from the MEDIA
that was given to them by their military counter-parts ( spin-doctors ) .
this system was deployed more as a psychological barrier for the
israelies than for the actual effectiveness of the anti-missle systems.
the missles were detonated above the cities to keep them from hitting the ground after missing their intended targets. imagine, 60% of the patriot
missles @ 1 million each, being used for psychological support instead
of physically providing protection from incoming missles!
if you use these numbers projected into a battle with china and the
us naval forces, what happens to our ships? we successfully knock
40% of their anti-ship missles down. they launch 100 missles and
get 60% hits. reverse the numbers. they will still sink all our
ships with expendable one-time missles, while we lose very valuable
multi-use ships and their acouterment of operative personnel.
n. korea has the artillery in place to turn seoul into cinders
in less than 1 HOUR! open two fronts simultaneously, and our
capabilities are subject to reactive roles instead of pro-active.
with long-term plannning for military action BORDERING their
vast continent, with limitless manpower, traditional artillery
and multiple launch systems ( rocketry ) , they will gain the upper hand
from the onset, and through attrition ( casualties ) will quite
easily wear down our resolve to police this part of the world.
strength is our best protection from an increasingly hostile
fractionated world. we are perceived as being the great satan
to the islamic countries of the world ( 800 million ) . we are
the cause of decadance, famine, and poverty to part of
world, while being the police force for the rest of what is
left. being everything for everybody has done nothing except
to create scorn , envy, enmity, and enemies from all who want
what we are, and will be. freedom has a high price for those
who fight to bring it about. illusory complacency about external
threats from fading political ideologies or semmingly innocuous
communist regimes, will eventually cause a repeat of history and
huge loss of life TRYING to keep what others have given their
lives for. our freedoms, and the american democratic way of life.
cherokee!; ) on-the-tall-ones-shoulders----------hey ted, tis good
to see, all as they should
be! knowledge is power. glad
kitco has some semblance of normalcy!!!!!
driver of the ssmfat----------------------------
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:22
WSF NC>(NC): - bw- a good theory regarding low savings rates. I'd guess it has more to do with having a 'utility discount rate' of phenominal magnitude. In other words, extreme shortsightedness or extreme optimism for the future. Its more important to most to have that sports utility vehicle for grocery shopping. Based on the conversations I have with these folks, they don't know what a financial system IS, let alone how safe it may be.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:20
pillbrain @home>(@home): - Donald: Thanks for Saturday 18:47
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:16
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Donald - The meaning of life is not something discovered. It is
something moulded. -- Antoine de Saint-Exupery
I'm reminded of that everytime I check the bottom of
the fridge.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:09
Mike Sheller A stitch in time makes Frankenstein>(A stitch in time makes Frankenstein): - STEVE ( Perth ) - This time around it may be a 1950-70 Bull with a 1929 spike grafted onto its head! Two decades about does it for stock bull momentum. This will NOT continue.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 12:03
Mike Sheller YESSSSS>(YESSSSS): - DONALD: My point exactly. GEORGE S. COLE: Check you mail.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:52
Front As a new grandfather ....>(As a new grandfather ....): -
ALL:
I was reminded of a short blag reading all the postings from last night.
An immigrant family was visiting a doctor in regards to why their baby was constantly crying. Nothing seemed to help. They had made the milk a little thicker through using pablum, had sweetened the water with sugar, had just about down everything one could think of.
The doctor, hearing the baby constantly crying in the waiting room, brought the couple into the examination room primarily to calm the rattled nerves of the other patients. To his horror, when he undressed the baby, he found that the child had poop all over it's legs, back, front, etc. in effect the baby needed a damn good cleaning and change since the poop had overflowed the sides of the diaper. The doctor immediately did the necessary proceedure and then demanded of the parents why they hadn't changed the infant in such an obviously long time. No need to yet came the reply. Are you kidding! said the doctor. No really, it's not all that much poop there. Anyways, it'll hold much more! I don't believe it said the doctor. Really is true said the man. He reached over to the counter and grabbed the box of diapers and held it up to show the doctor. see, good till 25 pounds! as he pointed to the label on the box.
Have a nice Sunday
TTFN - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:40
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Good quick downloading chart of world quakes for past month.
http://www.iinet.net.au/~standeyo/News_Files/Urgent_news_images/World_970731_0804MC.gif - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER: Author William Irwin Thompson has an answer to the series of questions in your 10:44 post. If you fail to create your own future, it will be inflicted upon you.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:27
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Must hit the sack. Will lurk back in 6 hours or so. Have a good philosophical Sunday afternoon, mates.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:23
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD: I was meaning to get around to taping the two gold/dow ratio charts a while back, but did so today. Very interesting. Have you tried running a line through the peaks of 1906,1909,1936,1945,1974, & 1991?
It seems to be a mean average ( approximately ) . Also, if you extrapolate the high points of 1929 and 1965 ( on the line drawn ) & then extrapolate a line from the bottom of 1979 on past 1997 ( now ) & on, I get the following junture. It is around year 2002, & a gold to dow ratio of about 40 plus. Since the 1965 level was above the 1929 level, what is stopping the next one being above the 1965 level I suppose I must be careful about the logarithmic index on the RH column, but... I have been of the view that maybe we will get at least 5 years of smaller tops & drops, a bit like from 1960 to 1970. That is sustainable with continuous low inflation. My question is did the stock market drops of 1929 and 1970's have higher unemployment & currency problems well before hand, or well after the event I am aware of the German banking problem pre-1929 etc. Is the bull this time a 1929 spike, or a 1950-70 drawn out affair. Have known this since October last year. The 100 year S&P 500 chart I have looks fairly similar to the Gold/Dow ratio chart. However it does not show how severe 1979 was, like Gold does. I always thought 1974 was the bad year, but that was only the first part of the major correction. In summarising, there is a remote possibility that the stocks could correct a bit, then go on like the blazes until early next century. Hope I am wrong, cause I can't handle this. If stocks do keep moving up strongly ( not impossible ) , then gold could keep dropping like a rock!! ( in price ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:05
nomercy Gold trade sees Dubai imports overtaking '96 levels>(Gold trade sees Dubai imports overtaking '96 levels): - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/10/y0023_z00_1.html
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 11:03
George Cole TIME>(TIME): - Waiting for the barber the other day, I thumbed through a late July copy of TIME magazine which I very rarely read. Wouldn't you know it, but this issue carried a short article advising investors to get out of gold. If TIME is running bearish gold articles, the turn has got to be at hand or quite near. Very bullish from a contrarian perspective!.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:56
bw Savings:>(Savings:): - One of the economic puzzles over the last fifteen years or so is what has happened to cause the Americian public to save but 5% or so of their income. That puzzle is shouting volumes to us currently. Why now when it is possible to make 20-30 percent per year in the greatest bull stock market of all time, why still only 5%? My answer, the americian public far from being fools know somewhere deep in their subconscious that most of the money going into the financial system will never come out, thus they choose to spend 95% of their income. A very good rational choice. Some day they will take the next step and discover there is a way to save that does not involve the financial system.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:55
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - 100,000 job losses predicted
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970811/national/national5.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:54
George Cole reversion to the mean>(reversion to the mean): - Donald: Your 9:39 post says it all. When things get too far out of balance -- whether in the natural world, the economy, the polity, or the financial markets -- a big move in the opposite direction is assured. And the farther the pendulum swings to one extreme, the bigger the inevitable jump in the opposite direction. Reversion to the mean writ large.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:54
Daily Outrage @IRS at work>(@IRS at work): - NIGHTMARES AHEAD!
If you're an American taxpayer, the new tax laws just passed by Congress and signed by the President may save you money or cost you money. But we know one thing for sure: you'll never figure them out.
That's right, Outraged readers, filing your dreaded income tax forms will be even more complicated the next time around. If you hire a tax preparer or accountant, you'll probably be paying them even more to tell you how much you owe Uncle Sam.
The new laws contain a child tax credit of $400-$500. But it decreases, and then vanishes, as income increases. It also changes, depending on the number of children you have. Of course, the amount of the deduction is different in 1998 and 1999.
There used to be a single rate on capital gains taxes. Now, there are three different rates for capital gains. Did you own those stocks for less than 18 months, more than 18 months but less than five years, or more than five years? Which rate depends on how long you've held the investment. Unlike the old rules, though, it also depends on which type of investment generated the profit. Profits from collectibles, real estate, and small businesses are taxed at different rates than other investments. Got that?
Do you make contributions to an IRA? Starting now, you have to choose between three different IRA plans. You've still got your deductible IRA's but now you also have new non-deductible IRA's. Contribution limits, and who is allowed to make IRA contributions, have also changed.
The tuition credit may save you money. But not this year. And not if your income is over a certain limit. And not if the school is not qualified. Except, of course, for the retroactive changes.
Right now, your accountant is planning the new addition on his house. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:44
Mike Sheller What happens to us all?>(What happens to us all?): - MIZ: Perhaps the real questions are : What happens to all of us if the direst predictions of the sages at Kitco come true? What happens to us if there is a drought or a famine ( God forbid ) ? What happens to us if there is a War ( God forbid, etc ) What happens to us if there is a plague ( Aids, Ebola, etc ) ? What happens to us if there is a massive earthquake and the continent starts to sink? What happens to us if we are born into an abusive family? What happens to us if Bill Clinton were to be given a Third term? That last was hypothetical of course. But with lawyers, you never know. Life happens to us. Where and how do we REALLY start to change what that means?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:36
Mike Sheller obproj@i-2000.com>(obproj@i-2000.com): - TED: Sure will, just e-me your date , time, and place of birth - or whatever info re those stats you have. At least I'm getting a recipe in return. My address is above.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:21
vronsky WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Part - II>(WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Part - II): -
The devil was not in the gold window. The devil was in the overvalued
dollar. Tlaga walks us through dollar’s declining purchasing power &
role of gold from 1920-1973:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:14
Ted @Shek>(@Shek): - Spent ten+ years in Aurora Ohio....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:13
Miz Part-Time vs Consultants>(Part-Time vs Consultants): - Part-time: UPS means the second earners, like housewives, students by part-time workers, but the Union is complaining about the part-time status of the first earners of household, the part-time workers who work as long as full-time workers. The problems are a lower wage, no benefit and unstable status, etc.
Consultant: In Wall Street, consultants replace full-time financial professionals since 1995. Their compensation is 10-20% higher than full-timer's. They receive the substitute for benefits. Placement agents are quickly raising their power in finance. At the beginning, professionals were in panic, but there is the same demand in this market. As long as Dow Jones is up, their job insecurity is hidden. However, what happens when the stock market reaches a downward cycle?
In an economic, labor/wage is fixed by labor contract. In contrast part-time labor is a flexible variable, the same as capital. Therefore, part-time provides dynamism to the changing economy and environment. But what happens to them when the economy is downward.
In the Congress, there is a discussion how to improve the self-employed: tax, health insurance, etc. However, to me their work is too slow and insufficient. Neither Democrats or Republicans give us a solution.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:12
Shek Ted>(Ted): - Ted, refresh my memory.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:07
Ted @Shek>(@Shek): - Shek ( 9:59 ) Aurora ring a bell...BBL...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:05
Ted @damn computer>(@damn computer): - My computer keeps locking up,where everything I click on brings NO reponse...I have to click on Windows ( the only thing that reponds ) and shut it down ...Anyone else having this problem or is this some sinister plot by the teamsters ta shut me up....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 10:05
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Scotty @ 23:01 - Thanks, I had a sailor standing behind me telling me about tactics and making sure we didn't put anything out that's still classified. Jane's is a good reference, here's another: http://lyonesse.membrane.com/~elmer/navy/fleets/
The really good stuff on tactics can't be shared. Worries about our navy vis-a-vis the Chicoms are misplaced.
Oldman: WW can keep this up for months. Winston Churchill is the source of the quote If a man isn't a liberal by the time he is 20 he has no heart, and if he isn't a conservative by the time he is 40 he has no head. A healthy dose of old-fashioned morality would go a long ways to returning both parties to respectability imho, until then it's discouraging to watch any of them. Keep posting, but let's schedule the food fights for a more decent hour!
$10,000 - pay off any remaining debts, buy a good shotgun, put the rest in coins. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:59
Shek home>(home): - Oldman,
Best regards from this Akron Zip to you. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:56
WSF NC>(NC): - RE: earlier post about Paul Krugman. Having been a grad student at MIT, I realized early on that the professors were either fustrated mathematicians, with no understanding or concern for the economy, or power-hungry policy wonks, ready to jump on whatever star is rising. The exception to that observation IMO is Krugman. I try to stay current with his work- He is very bright, articulate, and, as far as I can tell, motivated by the truth- at least more so than most of his peers.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:52
Ted @St.Andrews by the sea>(@St.Andrews by the sea): - Shove it Lucien!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:49
Ted esargent@atcon.com>(esargent@atcon.com): - Mike Sheller: Can ya do an astrological make-up on me?...Bread dough consists of: 3 cups of whole wheat flour, 6 + cups of rye flour,Tablespoon of honey,2.5 teaspoons of salt,two tablespoons of cidar vinegar, two tablespoons of caraway seeds,2.75 cups of warm water,two teaspoons fresh yeast, and some heavy-duty kneading...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:45
WSF NC>(NC): - Thanks, Donald. I think I'll ride Korea down to zero. Having said that, I probably just ensured a huge rally will take place.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:42
Front To Mike >(To Mike ): -
Thanks Mike .... Your best will always be enough I can assure you. Of course, if all hell breaks loose, we'll now say that you drank too much and George will have a way out of a tight spot ! HAHA ( :- ) )
We'll all await with baited breath you pronouncment of the annointed moment.
Signed
FRONT ( the page )
( duke of ) EARL
( the future ) George VII Last George in England was the VI so ......
Is that ok George?
TTFN - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:41
Ted @rising dough>(@rising dough): - Mike Sheller ( 9:25 ) Amen brother Mike!....Looks like you have good weather to head to the shore today...eh...Sure beats the mall!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WW, GEORGE COLE: Just as markets swing to extremes, politic and labor relations do the same. Politics and Labor Relations can be considered as markets too I guess. Labor has reached the bottom of its Bear Market and management is at a Bull Market peak. The UPS strike is a management selloff that says the free market has determined that all parties to a transaction must profit if the market is to be satisfied. Outrageous CEO salaries are a thing of the past. A Dow selloff will lead an investing public, that now has a management bias, to the other extreme. They will only side with management if they have the feeling they are getting rich along with the CEO's. As their financial conditions worsen they will tend to identify with the labor position.
It is fascinating to see so many forces reaching their extremes at the same time in history. The Bull Markets in Democrats ended in 1994. The Bull Market in World Powers ended in 1989. The Bull Market in Multinationals, Conglomerates and paper assets is ending now. Bear markets in gold, labor, savers and small entreprenuers are nearly over. The breakup of Russia and Yugoslavia and the tribalization of Africa is a warning sign for China, India, Canada and the United States that the politics of the future must respect and reflect the regional and ethnic differences of the regions if the whole units are to remain intact. The market is the master of us all. It requires that everyone profits from each and every transaction. It will punish those who persist in refusing to fairly share the profits with those who helped create them.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:36
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor>(The Astrological Investor): - FRONT: You asked for a freebie from the ol' astrologer - to find the most propitious moment for resident sage George S. Cole's anointing in his Kingly Role. Well, old King Cole has graciously emailed me his essential birth data - leastways enuf for me to get a fix on his planets. I will be putting all my calls from Messrs Soros, Greenspan, Gates , et al, on hold to find time to run out GSC's scope and analyze it. I just hope I don't make the mistake I made with Maggie Thatcher when I read her chart upside down one morning with a hangover!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:31
BillInOregon bjack@cdsnet.net>(bjack@cdsnet.net): - Home again. L.A. was hot & smoggy and traffic was bumper to bumper at 80MPH. Its good to be home. Strad, I bet you enjoyed your week in the mountains. It is good to be back on the ranch.
Hello Oldman, good to see you back and hear your voice of reason.
Gentleman, I don't think the argument is so much democrat or republican as electing men of good charactor who will do the most good for the most people. When we as a country knowingly elect people who are dishonest, liars and are beholden to special interests, we will get what we deserve. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:27
Mike Sheller @the Donald>(@the Donald): - DONALD - EXCELLENT split of the 10 grand. I think that's imaginative and sound.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 09:25
Mike Sheller mesmerized>(mesmerized): - I have just scrolled thru the previous day and night at Kitco. Words and phrases jumble in my inner ears. The great phiosophical debates of Saturday and Sunday rumble.Then...like a gentle dawn, the Sun comes up to tranquilty and friendly chat. Some observations: Brother WW, I respectfully and rhetorically ask what percentage of your lawyerly income you donate to the social charities you espouse?
Are you like the poor widow in the gospels who put all she owned into the charity box? Or are you like the Pharisees, who make wide their phylacteries in public, but know not the essence of the law? Why do you depend so MUCH upon law to right the wrongs of life you perceptively apprehend? Being a lawyer, are you a prisoner of the law, and wish to invoke it upon your brother at any and every turn that jolts your personal sensibilities as to justice and injustice? Brother ELDORADO put it best when he reminded us The Bill of Rights was made for Government ( to limit IT ) - The people have UNLIMITED Rights. They were given to us by God, not lawyers. Lawyers inevitably take them away . Political Lawyers especially ( our representatives ) are the Wholesesalers of the people's rights. They buy them up and then retail them out to others as if those rights were now their own to so divide. No sir, I am sorry. The world will not be made any better by force of law OR the barrel of a gun. Not in favor of labor or of capital.' I have no beef with the socialist's concern for suffering and downtrodden humanity. But the answer is not to shackle those who choose to live by ideas and inventions and skill and to tax them and manipulate the wealth they create for all. The answer is to take people of ideas and gather 'round them. And create enterprises for your philosophy that are as free, competitive, and responsible for their OWN life and death as the private corporations you decry. Then we will see where is YOUR commitment truly, where is YOUR vision and power to lead and convince men, and stir their hearts. And where is your frugality, and management ability, and where are your standards, so that your enterprise of human elevation and equality is not bled by the very souls you would lift up, and bodies you would nourish. Or is it easier just passing a law, picking my pocket legally, and then passing a lot more laws? Don't you just LOVE Kitco Weekends? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 08:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - SHEK: Put me down for $5000 into Central Fund of Canada and $5000 into the Rydex Ursa Fund on Monday.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 08:51
Aubrey @Options>(@Options): - I am new to Gold futures, can someone tell me how buying, say 10
Dec 360 calls, could play out using the current 330.40 underlying price.
Use your best CALLS. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 08:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: Yes we have a Dow/Gold chart here at the Kitco site. Go back to July 27, 1997 at 5:34 and 5:37 AM. Find two posts by bb fisher. Set your printer to horizontal and print out each chart. Trim the edge of the right hand chart and tape them together into a single Dow chart from 1903 adjusted to the price of gold. It is a visual revelation and will surely influence your thoughts about where gold and the Dow are heading. You are seeing the entire 20th Century from the point of view of gold.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 08:23
Ted @Novice>(@Novice): - Tired gull from Ontario just landed....Wouldn't Dickie Gephardt fit right in here.....Am thinkin of headin back to the states to be a replacement worker for UPS as they have a HISTORY of bein overly generous to their workers....BBL...time ta make some dough....and bake some bread!...and speakin of bread....HI TORT!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 08:14
Donald @Home>(@Home): - A bullish opinion on Malaysia stocks.
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/10stoc.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 08:13
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Isn't the ocean awesome!...No,I hardly believe does two days make a trend and was only speculating on a probable temporary phenomenon...a simple market reaction and since the Hang Seng has been mirroring the Dow,I expect some,at least temporary, fireworks...Our property is within one mile of the farthest Eastern Point of Nova Scotia and the wind is an almost constant factor here...Scaterie Island ( 8 miles out ) has water on its ocean side ( East ) that is about 5 degrees warmer than the bay side so I surmise the gulf stream is that close and maybe that has some bearing on the almost constant wind...It ain't like this on the Maine coast!...Am looking forward to the return of the Fin whales next month....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:54
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: We are about 700 feet back from the ocean, 13 to 17ft above sea level so the water level is rarely a problem. But the wind can sure do a job on us from time to time. I thought to learn Canadian it was only one word eh and one letter, Z=Zed? Snoring must be difficult in Canadian zedzedzedzedzedzed. Re the markets, does two days make a trend? It has to start somewhere and I think this Asian currency turmoil has to be spilling over into the world banking system. Everything connect to everything. The bond market is the key. If there are forced sales of US T-Bonds by the Japanese to raise funds to support the Thai currency we are down for the count.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:40
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Changes in Dollar-Yen relationship impact Korean stock prices. ( WSF note )
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0811/m0811b06.html - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:40
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - I'm still learning to speak Canadian as it's a very difficult language to master....Dog-fight it shall be...Am looking forward to tonight's market action and I expect the Hang Seng to open down ( big time ) and Europe might not be too pretty Monday mornin but who knows about the Dow?
....Could be trouble if the dipsters are on vacation...and what about Gold+the currencies tonight-tomorrow...Used to have one of those magic eight black balls that you'd tilt and an answer would pop up but I can't find the damn thing!...Starting to get a few breaks in the clouds but still have a 25-30 MPH wind wistling but at least it's not like the wind we sometimes get....like the 85 MPH stuff that blew the 12 foot mesh satellite dish away a few years ago...A painful sight to watch it leave..
piece by piece....No CNBC that day! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: How long did it take you to learn to speak Canadian...eh? And, could we call it a dogfight, just to avoid raising the cat topic?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:19
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald! Am sitting here staring out at a wild ocean drinking my morning cup of Java....Pretty good cat-fight last night...eh...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:16
Ted @Goldfinger>(@Goldfinger): - Goldfinger ( 2:37 ) That's THE answer bro.....live within your means and be debt free......and I don't bluff!...Oldman: Keep em commin...we need some common sense......
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 07:11
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Good Morning Ted: Nice sunny morning here. Just finished my first cup of coffee and reading last nights posts.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 06:49
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good mornin ALL....yes,even you WW!...From the most heavily unionized area of North America....If only the rest of NA could be like us....we'd be in deep do-do....Heavy rain+wind commin down....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 05:25
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepop.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepop.com.au): - The Australian quote of the year:
I allowed the bill for the new Parliament House to go through and I turn
the first sod and the whole thing is an unmitigated disaster. It would be
a wonderful thing if we turned Parliament House over to the oil-company moguls, and Parliament went back to the old building which was friendly and intimate.
- Former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser on his $1 billion
mistake.
And yes, he was a Liberal ( & left wing conservative ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 05:19
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD: An article for you.
Burnt by used-car values
By Bill Tuckey ( Australian Motoring journo )
BUSINESS REVIEW WEEKLY
The market is starting to shudder as the phrase No such thing as a free
lunch starts to tell on Ford and Holden dealers who started the rush to sell cars on no deposit or low deposit, and with guaranteed buy-back values.
The first Festivas to be assiduously flogged under Ford's Red Carpet
Options scheme are coming back into the dealerships after two years out
there. And in many instances more is owed on them than what they are
worth. The first Barinas to go out later under Holden's similar scheme,
SmartBuy, will soon follow suit, with the same results.
Nobody predicted what would go wrong, but they should have: as buyers
rushed to buy $14,000 small cars ( mainly Korean Hyundais and Daewoos ) ,
used-car prices collapsed. Dealers with quality stock previously regarded as plums in the trade - such as the Toyota Corolla, Ford Laser and Mazda 323 - found they could not sell even prime-condition, low-kilometre
vehicles two or three years old at $12,000-15,000.
Why should they, when a young buyer could get a new Festiva or Barina for
little or no deposit, with a long warranty and a guarantee that they could hand it back after two years and walk away? So almost overnight the
dealers found themselves stuck with overvalued stock that had already been bought with the floor plan money lent by their financiers. To reduce inventory costs they had to move metal, cutting prices and taking a bath, and the pain swiftly spread throughout Australia.
Dealers and the finance arms, Ford Credit and Holden Financial Services,
set the residuals on the basis of history, mainly Glass's Guide. The general manager of Glass's, Tony Robinson, says: For anyone in the business of setting future values, to rely totally on historical values is extremely dangerous. He says Glass's Guide factors in only about 40% historical data when advising on or setting residuals.
The Ford and Holden contracts contain caveats on kilometres and
condition, but are by definition general. But for the quarter to June, Glass's Guide shows two-year-old Festivas down to half their new prices and Holden Barinas only slightly better at 60%. The finance contract buy-back figures were generally set about 50%, but dealers fully expected to get back good-quality low-kilometre cars they could ticket at 60-65%, giving themselves wholesale margins of about $2000 per car. What they expected simply is not happening.
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
STEVE'S NOTE: Isn't globalisation marvellous!!!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 05:04
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - A new spin on Asian productivity.
Paul's view of productivity ( Viewpoint by David James )
BUSINESS REVIEW WEEKLY - AUSTRALIA
Paul Krugman, professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, is perhaps the most effective wet blanket in world economic
debate. Krugman ( Paul to his enemies - he has no friends ) , made his mark
with Peddling Prosperity, in which he attacks the prevailing idea that
countries must be competitive in the international arena.
In the book, Krugman points out that what matters is domestic productivity, that improvements in trade tend to have only an incremental effect. To underline the point, he estimates that if world trade were to halve, world income would fall only 2.5%.
He even has a law for what he considers foolish ideas: Once an
administration has decided to accept a basically bad set of ideas, there is a sort of Gresham's Law in which these bad ideas drive out good ones, even in seemingly unrelated areas.
Not content, he moves on to Asia, arguing that the most dramatic industrial transformation the world has ever seen - both in terms of its speed and staggering extent - is not especially impressive because there has been no rise in productivity.
He says that once increases in the labor force and investment are taken out ( leaving a figure called total factor productivity ) , Asian economic
efficiency has not really improved, and unless there is a productivity
improvement Asian growth will stall.
Such economic comparisons tend to be static and ignore considerations
such as: What might have happened instead. That Asia has managed to
avoid the grim poverty of other industrialising, populous areas of the world ( Africa, South and Central America, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union represent only about 15% of world GDP while Asia has 27% ) is a stunning achievement.
Nevertheless, Krugman manages to dent some Asian self-confidence. The
former Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand, Supachai Panitchpakdi, says
that Asian leaders once compared their golf scores when they got together.
Thanks to Krugman, they now compare their total factor productivity.
Now Krugman is at it again. It has recently been popular in US corporate
circles to claim that the huge investment in information technology during the 1980s has begun to pay off. Not to Krugman. He says the rise in productivity per worker in the 1990s is a mere 1%, compared with the 3% achieved annually in the 1950s and 1960s. He dismisses the new
paradigm of growth as something that is only popular because it makes
business people feel good about their economic prospects and themselves.
It is common in Asia to attack Krugman as a provocateur looking for
research funds for his university department, but this is a cheap and falsely based attack on the person. He is an impassioned proponent of
productivity, especially the domestic variety. ( On second thoughts, he has at least one friend: me. )
In one sense, his arguments are unassailable, even tautological.
Productivity is a measure that compares inputs and outputs: how much you
get out from how much you put in, divided by the number of people
involved ( and adjusted for other factors like capital investment ) . Because you must go into debt to give yourself something you have not created, productivity is a good pointer to the real standard of living.
But its simplicity may be the very problem. Productivity is a word that came into being with the Industrial Revolution and it may be superseded as industrialism runs its course. Consider, for example, the absurdity of the phrase the productivity of knowledge: the understanding that people get from the understanding they put in, divided by the number of people who understand it.
E-mail address: drdavidjames@compuserve.com
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
STEVE'S NOTE: I suppose we need a feel good article while the Western economies allow their manufacturing sectors go to the wall for the benefit of low wage countries. It is no accident. Go back to 1973 & re-read the LIMA agreement. Very little happens in the political scene by accident. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 04:55
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - A TOP ARTICLE!! Suddenly the rich need the poor, & the poor know it!!
Japan-US deal reverses earlier accord
By David James BUSINESS REVIEW WEEKLY - AUSTRALIA
The Malaysian Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, attacks the
currency speculator George Soros for his Malaysian ringgit sell-off. The
Thai economy goes into a free fall, and Thai ministers prepare to apply to the International Monetary Fund for assistance. The Indonesian Foreign
Minister, Ali Alatas, speculates on political motives behind what he calls an assault on South-East Asian currencies.
What is happening? The answer seems to be a deal between the world's
two largest economies: the United States and Japan.
In 1996, world financial markets were on the verge of a meltdown. The
Japanese economy was reeling from the twin effects of sharply falling asset prices and poor returns on capital. The yen had strengthened to 79 against the US dollar, equity markets were one-third off their peak, and property was down two-thirds. There was a fear that the world's largest creditor nation, whose savings were keeping the global system afloat, would begin to implode, triggering a world financial crisis.
A solution had to be found. A deal, which commentators are calling the reverse Plaza Accord, was struck between US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Japanese central bankers to weaken the yen sharply. The implications for corporate strategy and capital markets will be profound.
To understand how these imbalances occurred, we have to go back to the
Plaza Accord, the 1985 agreement between the Governments of the G-5
nations to force an appreciation of the yen against the US dollar. The
intention was to rectify the trade imbalance between the two countries by
making US exports more competitive.
The strategy failed completely. The Japan-US trade imbalance remained
virtually unchanged because Japanese corporations proved unexpectedly
flexible, and price was not the only factor in competitiveness. In failing to alter the trade balance, the US had triggered its own economic decline.
However, a decade after the agreement Japanese markets were chronically
overvalued. The chairman of the Pacific Rim Forum, Alan Carroll, says
The economy was quite literally on the precipice of a deflationary spiral, and all this was occurring within the world's principal creditor - 60% of the world's total net capital exports came from Japan in 1995. A financial implosion of Japan could have easily triggered an unprecedented financial crisis.
Rubin responded by easing the yen. The deal was that the US authorities
would trigger a rise of the greenback, giving Japan an export edge in order to avoid disaster. In return, Japan would help to ease US financing and interest difficulties ( Japan has bought $US120 billion of US Treasury notes in the past two years ) .
The reverse Plaza Accord brought about a 50% drop from the yen's peak
against the US dollar and 35% against the deutschmark. It is likely to have as profound an effect as the 1985 version. In Japan, big corporations have their best balance sheets ever, and the country is taking advantage of more favorable conditions to recapitalise the banking system.
But the same cannot be said for smaller countries in Asia. The
beneficiaries of the initial Plaza Accord were other Asian countries whose currencies were linked to the US dollar. As the yen appreciated, they became more competitive against Japanese exporters. Moreover, they
received investment as Japanese corporations began to release enormous
amounts of capital across the region, taking advantage of lower wages and
avoiding the problems of a surging yen. The phenomenon called globalisation was born.
The currency deal is unsustainable in the longer term. Although it has
allowed Japan to ease its financial crisis, it has intensified the
indebtedness of North America: Nafta borrowed $US242 billion in 1996
from the rest of the world, mostly from Japan. The US trade deficit with
Japan is expected to widen by $US450 billion this year.
What seems likely is another surge of investment in Asia as Japan takes
advantage of a temporarily low yen and surging corporate profits. The
effects are likely to be seminal, if only because Japan has the largest
volume of potentially mobile capital. The Japanese economy makes up
18% of world GDP and more than 70% of East Asian GDP. The country's
current account surplus is $US70 billion and its foreign assets exceed
$US800 billion.
However, Australia is not likely to benefit from this. The main purpose for the initial phase of globalisation was to find countries with low wages that offered ways of avoiding the currency misalignments. This time, the motive is to gain access to the large and potentially rapid-growth markets of emerging nations.
This has resulted in a new type of international negotiation. As William
Greider, in his book One World, Ready or Not, comments, national
governments in the emerging markets are trading foreign investment in
their country's industry base in return for access to local markets. Greider says: Suddenly, it seems, the rich need the poor, and the poor know it.
They do not intend to tolerate another phase of colonialist domination, but hope instead to exploit the insecurities of global enterprises for their own advancement.
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
STEVE'S NOTE: I have met Alan Carroll. A smart cookie, & very up with
what is going on in Asia via the Aussie Corporates. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 04:41
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - EL NINO STORY - PART 2
Keeping a spy-eye on the harvest
By Narelle Hooper
Knowledge is power and money in the commodities market, and a
running joke is that the United States Department of Agriculture knows
more about the state of Australia's wheat crop than our farmers do. It is an exaggeration, but only just.
For years the US, the world's biggest wheat exporter, has been spying on
the grain crops of Australia and elsewhere; analysing satellite images of its competitors' main grain-growing regions as the crops develop. Adding
historical statistics and daily world climate information, a monthly report on harvest prospects is produced.
The Americans also keep a close watch on India, Europe, South Africa,
Canada and the biggest wheat producer, China, a net importer that watches the US and Australia. Canada closely monitors Australian and American farmers, and probably others. Australia, the world's fourth biggest
exporter, is a competitor everyone likes to watch because it exports about 85% of its crop.
With a strong El Nino pattern developing, Australia's competitors are
watching for any early signs of crop failure that will effect yield and price.
Last year the Australian Wheat Board recruited one of the US Department
of Agriculture's top overseas crop analysts, agronomist Michael Shean. With privatisation looming, the board will depend more than ever on its risk management and market intelligence. Shean's task is to boost the board's forecasting confidence. Shean says that in years of average rainfall, the data is not such a big deal. But in adverse years, when yields plummet and prices can soar, an early warning is of crucial strategic importance. In the 1994 drought, Shean says, the US satellite images of Australia's north-east wheat belt late in July showed the crops were not developing well. It cut its Australian forecasts, at the time appearing to go out on a limb. Ultimately its forecasts were proved close to the mark. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics was forced to revise down its forecasts three times. Shean says those who followed the US Department of Agriculture estimates could take advantage of the market.
Shean has proposed setting up the same sort of monitoring system in
Australia. He says it would take about three years to implement and the
cost would generate huge returns. In the US and Canada, he says, such
research work is government funded and the results are available publicly.
In contrast, Australia's forecasting agency, the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, is having its budget cut.
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
STEVE'S NOTE: Good spin for a grant increase for one of our Govt agencies. Why not just buy the data off the USA direct - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 04:34
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - HOT STUFF ON EL NINO!
BUSINESS REVIEW WEEKLY - AUSTRALIA
The wild boy of the weather
By Narelle Hooper
El Nino is a troublesome child. In the years when the warm current moves
south along the Pacific coast of South America, a complex interaction of
ocean currents and atmosphere brings drought to Australia and depresses
the economy. By the time the effect filters through agribusiness, rural
communities and the transport sector, it can wipe off more than 1% of
Australia's gross domestic product.
The same phenomenon causes devastating floods and famine in Peru, Bolivia and Brazil; dries up monsoons in India and South-East Asia; and brings
drought to wipe out crops in South Africa. This year there are forecasts for the strongest El Nino since 1982-83, the century's worst.
This season's worsening El Nino outlook prompted Federal Treasurer Peter
Costello to warn on July 31 that it threatened the Government's estimate of 3.75% economic growth. It is too early to change the forecasts because timing and distribution of rainfall over the next few weeks will be critical to determining the farm production ultimately achieved, he told economists in Melbourne. Costello's warning highlights the frustrating thing about climate analysis: we can know all the probabilities of climate variations, but a lot is still unknown.
In Australia, the effect on the economy of an El Nino drought is
second only to the state of the US economy. Finance institutions, Treasury and big companies now routinely keep an
eye on the monthly southern oscillation index ( SOI ) , which is an
indicator of the effects of El Nino, or his rare, wet, sister La Nina. Bankers Trust's senior economist David Bassenese estimates that this year's El Nino could wipe $500 million off commodity exports alone, adding about 0.1% to the current account deficit.
In Toowoomba, Queensland, Dr Roger Stone and his colleagues may hold
the key to the behavioral patterns of El Nino. Stone discovered many of the links between El Nino and world weather patterns by looking over global rainfall records. This research has the power to move markets. Stone, principal research scientist with Queensland's Centre for Climate
Applications, and his colleague Graeme Hammer, have developed strategies to help farmers use probability-based information to reduce risks during drought and improve gains in good years. These days, business is also taking advantage of their work. Nine out of 10 of the calls to me these
days are agribusiness, commodity traders and financial institutions, not
farmers, Stone says.
El Nino affects not just rainfall, but changes the whole climate pattern. It tends to bring higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures and
clearer skies, which has implications for everyone from tourism operators to crop and livestock producers to whitegoods and clothing manufacturers.
El Nino does not automatically mean that crop yields will fall substantially. Even if rainfall is well below average, as long as it comes at the right time there can still be good crops. But it can mean the threat of different pests, or the need to rethink the types of crop, the amount of fertiliser to use or a greater risk of frost.
A string of listed companies affected by the performance of the rural sector are now tracking the SOI. These include the food companies, such as Goodman Fielder and George Weston, for which commodities are the
biggest factor in a swinging costs structure, and milling companies Manildra Group and Defiance-Bunge. Also watching the index is the growing number of listed wine-producing companies.
Wesfarmers and Futuris Corporation, and their stock and station businesses Dalgety and Elders, experience an early pick-up as farmers sell off excess stock, but it slows later in the cycle. Dalgety says it considers the forecasts in its farm financing risk management. Banks and companies dealing in stockfeed, chemicals, fertilisers, farm machinery and veterinary supplies also experience a mixed effect.
The warning signals
The weather effect known as El Nino translates from the Spanish as the
boy child, a term used by Peruvian fishermen to describe the appearance
every few years around Christmas of a warm current from the equator
pushing down the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. It displaces the upwelling of the cold north-flowing Humboldt current, driving away the fish.
Southern oscillation: One of the reasons Australia is said to be a land of droughts and flooding rains. It is the see-sawing interrelation of the ocean and the atmosphere pressure, occurring between the broad expanses of the western and the eastern Pacific.
SOI: The southern oscillation index. This shows the strength and phase of
the oscillation by measuring the difference in atmospheric pressure
between Tahiti and Darwin. The system is in equilibrium when the index is
at or near zero, which is the typical situation.
In the positive phase ( La Nina ) , the southern oscillation is associated with stronger Pacific trade winds, warmer seas north of Australia and a higher probability of above-average rainfall in north and south-eastern Australia.
In the negative phase ( El Nino ) , the southern oscillation is associated with stronger than normal warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, usually every three to eight years. The seas in the western tropical Pacific cool and the trade winds slacken, feeding less moisture into the Australia/Asia region.
World weather patterns are altered and there is a higher probability of
below-average rainfall in north-east Australia. The monthly moving
averages, not the weekly or daily readings of the SOI, are the readings to watch.
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 04:04
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - If an economist does not believe the New Era, maybe there will be one?
THE ECONOMIST ( Article in Business Review Weekly - Australia )
Economic cycles just keep rolling
By Don Stammer, chief economist of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Australia.
Last November, The Wall Street Journal ran a front-page story on the
death of the business cycle. A month ago, two United States business
journals carried stories that the business cycle, and the cycle in inflation, were now obsolete because of globalisation and technology. Two weeks ago, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, spoke about the possibility of a run of years in which a wide range of business processes may be re-engineered to make better use of technology. If this were to be the case, he said, the US could be in for a sustained period in which productivity improved and inflation remained low. The interpretation put on Greenspan's carefully chosen words was it's a new era, or it's a brave new world.
Anyone close to my age - and I have been around for 27% of European
settlement in Australia - will recall bouts of enthusiasm about the end of the business cycle and about brave new worlds. None of these predictions turned out to be correct. Is it so different this time? In the late 1940s, the supporters of economic planning led the charge. In the 1950s and 1960s the emphasis was on fine tuning through countercyclical changes in fiscal and monetary policy. There were some successes. However, it turned out that, because economic policy operates with long lags, the effects of policy changes were sometimes felt after the economic cycle had turned of its own accord.
Then came monetary targets, mainly in the 1970s and 1980s. Central
banks were encouraged to nominate a preferred rate of growth in the
money supply and, once they regained control over monetary conditions,
to adopt progressively lower targets for growth in the monetary aggregates.
In the 1980s, it was the turn of enthusiasts for deregulation to claim that the cycle in business conditions would be substantially dampened. The market-induced movements in exchange rates and interest rates that would follow deregulation would help to discipline governments and set up a self-adjusting mechanism against swings in the economy.
The chart shows the resilience of the business cycle in Australia. Someone my age is hearing, for at least the fifth time, that this time it is different and the cycle will disappear. There is good reason to remain cynical. Inflation is just sleeping. The cycle in the economy lives on although, like the cycle in inflation, it is now milder and more drawn out. In today's optimistic markets, some investors will read too much into reports of Greenspan's recent comments. It is well to recall his February remark: History is strewn with visions of such new eras that, in the end, have proven to be a mirage.
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
NOTE: I think my uncle, who was Dean of Economics at Uni of NSW, taught this guy. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:52
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - Aurophile -- I think that for your scenario to develop, UPS workers, as one of many, has to win their benefits. The economy has to become more inflated to continue, and 'THEY' ( the Feds ) must push it in that direction. I believe they have NO choice! In the end, it'll prove to be futile though. Debt based is doomed from the beginning! The only question thereof is the time/timing. Continue to watch the currencies and the competition for 'funding'. BIG key! How else can debt financing work? We saw a big rise in the buck solely because of 'fear' in the Asian currencies. Essentially, we will be seeing 'problems' anywhere and everywhere in order to maintain a 'strong' buck here. HAR! The scenarios will get even more interesting as time goes on IMHO! All for the almighty buck! Of course, it IS the reserve currency of the would. I don't suppose THAT has anything to do with it! If one didn't have to live with this BS, one could really have a GOOD belly laugh over it! Man, is there ever going to be HELL to pay one day!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:51
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Message in inflation-linked bonds
By Crispin Wood
BUSINESS REVIEW WEEKLY - AUSTRALIA
In July 1987, the market for inflation-linked bonds was tiny. Not many
investors noticed that the yields on these securities had overtaken the
earnings yields of listed equities. In retrospect, this event was an important stockmarket sell signal and, 10 years on, it is close to being repeated.
Australia now has the world's third-largest market for inflation-linked
securities, behind Britain and the United States.
It may be pure coincidence: conditions in today's equity market
are very different from those of 1987 but it serves to focus attention
on relative asset values. Fund managers worried about a market
correction will look to less volatile assets to provide returns
comparable to equities. Some investment funds are reweighting
into cash, bonds and property.
The gap in real yields between local equities and inflation-linked
bonds has narrowed as a result of the market rally, making bonds a more attractive investment despite the prevailing climate of low inflation. If the stockmarket continues to surge, yields on inflation-linked bonds might overtake equities for the second time. The real yield is expected to be sustained above 5% following recent increases in US bond yields.
But there is no need to panic. Bankers Trust's equity analysts remain bullish on the local sharemarket. Debt-markets analyst Stephen Conrad says: The actual 1987 experience, although of interest statistically, does not necessarily stand up ... The ( inflation-linked bond ) market was immature, the liquidity wasn't strong. He argues that it is only now, with a more mature market, that a proper statistical correlation between the bonds and equities can be established.
But a BT report in July on the theoretical basis for comparison of equity
and inflation-linked bond yields, by Richard Hartigan and David Rees,
shows that in July 1987 the All Ords earnings yield crossed below real
yields on CPI bonds before bottoming out later in the year. Given the
relative volatility of equity returns versus inflation-linked bond returns, this should have been a strong equity sell signal, the report says.
Research by Bankers Trust Investment Bank shows that the earnings yields
( the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio ) of industrial companies tend to closely track the CPI. This means that inflation-linked bonds also tend to track the market indices. In the past four years, there has been an 86% correlation with the All Industrials index and an 84% correlation with the All Ordinaries index. It could be argued that that makes these equity yields real yields because, as with inflation-linked bonds, yields adjust for inflation.
However, the report highlights shortcomings in this comparison. The equity yields use historic information - the last publicly released earnings rather than projected earnings. Another problem is that the price/earnings ratio is subject to extreme plunges in value when equity prices tumble, as occurred in late 1987.
Copyright © 1997 BRW Media
This is an extract of an article in Australia's Business Review Weekly magazine.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:35
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - High-tech hiatus
By Ross Greenwood
BUSINESS REVIEW WEEKLY - AUSTRALIA
The Federal Government's new-found fervor for the
information-technology industry is welcome, but about
three years too late. Our neighbors ( rivals for
investment ) have courted large Japanese and United
States companies, which can provide investment,
employment and a base for other high-tech operations.
Australia has been slow on the uptake, despite the
attractions for foreign investors of an affluent,
technically literate community. Prime Minister John
Howard began to understand this after meeting the US Federal Reserve
chairman, Alan Greenspan. But enthusiasm must be backed by action.
Investment, exports and jobs are being lost. An example is highlighted in Sandy Plunkett's Focus article in this week's edition. She rang Andy Grove, chief executive of one of the world's most important technology companies, Intel. Grove confirmed that he has a $10 billion expenditure plan between now and the end of the century, including chip-making plants in our region. He wondered why Australians had not been knocking on his door.
Industry Minister John Moore spent time at Intel on his last trip, but it was an exploratory look into the industry rather than an effort to attract business to Australia. As the Government introduces more initiatives in this area, including its decisions stemming from the Mortimer report, it must realise that Australia is competing for employment and investment in new technology with countries in the region that offer more incentives and understanding.
While Plunkett's report shows where Australia's technology push is lacking, Murray Massey reveals in this week's issue that a Danish company, one of Europe's leading makers of computer memory cards, set up here because of our natural advantages. Memory Card Technology established its headquarters in Brisbane with no government incentives, despite Singapore's offer of a seven-year tax holiday. The managing director of MCT ( Australia ) , Jorgen Christensen, says the company does not always make decisions from a strictly financial point of view. This is not true of most other companies considering big investments in this region.
Christensen has one suggestion for the Government: a free-trade zone in
Australia is essential for freight passing through the country. Australia's import-export processing charge on air freight may force MCT to establish new distribution outlets in Asia. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:24
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Gotta have them Bank Shares....
http://www.brw.com.au/fr_brw1.htm - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:20
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - Jack -- I'll add this, from my vibes and from my probably limited knowledge of the markets, I am, and will be, adding to my own foxhole! I do NOT like what is happening out there. First, this whole worlds finanacial system is debt based. That is at least strike one against it. I.E., the currency can never be paid back as all of it is first loaned into existence! Second, the people/consumers of the world are not being paid enough to be the consumers of the procuct/produce they make. So, who are these companies to sell to? There rich stock holders? HAR! Besides, much of that is 'imaginary/unrealized' profits anyway. Also in this whole scenario is all the taxation within our system. Can't 'compete' simply on that basis, much less all the others. This is why the 'Elders' had tariffs apportioned at the border; to equalize the effects/costs there. Anymore, its export the jobs. If UPS could do the same, they would! Their trucks however would have some REAL HIGH mileage! Most Americans would also not be able to understand the 'lingo'. The buck will eventually stop for lack of 'interest'. That meaning that there will be not enough employed here to PAY the interest! Interesting that interest could be so 'interesting'! But, that is how investors view it. Interesting! Got a foxhole dug?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:15
Milhouse @Home>(@Home): -
Randal Forsyth's article in the latest Barrons is the most astute piece of financial journalism I have read in Barrons this year.
https://interactive.wsj.com/edition/current/articles/CurrentYield.htm - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:12
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Apologies all for the triple post. My connect went down for a bit.
BTW, I have far more trouble downloading GOLD EAGLE ( Vronsky etc ) as it seems to be overloaded most of the time, rather than this site. It I can't get onto Kitco, it is usually because the link is down completely somewhere, or EVERYONE is looking at Martian rocks or something. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 03:08
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - More Nightly Business Report
Market Monitor: Eugene Peroni, Jr. Of Janney Montgomery Scott
PAUL KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor this week is Eugene Peroni Jr., a senior vice president and chief of technical analysis for the Janney Montgomery Scott brokerage, he is based in Philadelphia. He is with us in our New York studio. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Gene.
PERONI: Nice to be back Paul. Thank you.
KANGAS: We know the stock market was ripe for profit taking and we know the bond market is what set it off. But why now? Why today?
PERONI: Well there had been some comments by several Fed officials lately and there indications that the economy was starting to heat up a bit. Also the gold stocks were staring to base and rally a little and I think that caused some concern consternation and as a result we did get this
correction and this move up in the long bond yield.
KANGAS: Well, you know, this time the market didn't snap back like it has on some of these other sell offs. We were down, I think, at worst 212 points. We only rallied back about 50. Is that meaningful?
PERONI: Well it is a little bit when we look at the individual configurations of the Dow Component stocks, especially the Blue Chips. Many have formed some near term topping formations and I think that that is going to keep the market or at least the Dow in a range for a little
while. What we are watching specifically here though is the long bond yield. If that begins to move decisively over 6.7 percent then I think that could stir added selling and possibly dipped as much as 5 percent. If we moved over 7 percent in the long bond yield then we would be looking more on the order of a 9 percent correction from the highs.
KANGAS: So we are talking somewhere around 800 points there.
PERONI: That's true. That could be a worse case, yes.
KANGAS: OK. Now one question I want to ask you Gene as a technical analysis or analyst. A lot of the tremendous power of this market has disrupted normal stock patterns. Chart patterns and so forth. It has almost made a mockery out of some of the old log standing patterns. Has this made technical analysis less useful?
PERONI: Not from our perspective. No. In fact it has made it more useful. We are very much of the momentum orientation so we certainly like to see stocks that are breaking out of formations. Out of consolidation trends and we've had just that. Actually we have had a very orderly advance
here in the manner in which many stocks have backed and filled and then moved up to higher levels is very encouraging here for the longer term.
KANGAS: OK. In defense of your type of analysis ( LAUGHTER ) , obviously Well anyway, last time you were with us, February 21st dial 6931 you were very bullish and you gave us some wonderful stocks, Allegheny Teledyne ( NYSE:ALT ) , Brunswick ( NYSE:BC ) , CVS ( NYSE:CVS ) , Honeywell ( NYSE:HON ) , Lucent ( NYSE:LU ) and Lexmark ( NYSE:LXK ) every one of them a winner. This is the third time in a row you haven't had one clinker that I can
complain about. What do we do with those that I mentioned? Sell any of them.
PERONI: Well to be honest with you I still like them so we rate them as attractive still even at these levels.
KANGAS: How about additions? What would you buy on this weakness? If at all.
PERONI; Well we like the oil stocks here. So we like ARCO ( NYSE:RCM ) and we also like the oil service group and in that regard we Varco ( NYSE:VRC ) symbol VRC. That's a machinery, oil equipment company. It looks very attractive to us. The broadcasting and telecommunications area looks good. We like Clear Channel ( NYSE:CCL ) and also Loral ( NYSE:LOR ) , space and communications and then we like some of the specialty manufacturing companies. A company like Carpenter Technology ( NYSE:CRS ) which is in specialty steel and Cooper Industries ( NYSE:CBE ) also looks good. The symbol there is CBE and we also like some of the aerospace
related companies including a little company Coltech ( NYSE:COT ) . The symbol there is COT and they make equipment and mechanisms for the air craft business.
KANGAS: All right. You know, long time ago I think three visits ago you gave us Clorox ( NYSE:CLX ) at 89. It's about 140 now. Avon ( NYSE:AVP ) products, Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ) , Conseco ( NYSE:CNC ) , Pfizer ( NYSE:PFE ) they are all way up like some of them doubled. Are you taking any profits in these yet?
PERONI: Not quite yet, no. Most are still holding onto their longer term trends and again our orientation really is not only to choose the best short term winners, but also look at the best long term leaders as well and those stocks are still in basis up trends here.
KANGAS: All right. You mentioned gold is making a little move. Is it a big enough move to buy some gold stocks here?
PERONI: I think that for those that want to hedge portfolios it is. Yes. I think that the gold group has bottomed here. There is some further upside but I wouldn't do it as a trading play. I would do it more as an investment longer term play. More as a hedge.
KANGAS: What stock do you like or two stocks maybe?
PERONI: Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) and Newmont Gold ( NYSE:NGC ) both look
attractive in the gold group.
KANGAS: OK. Thanks very much Dean. It's a pleasure to see you again.
PERONI: I enjoyed it. Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor, Eugene Peroni Jr., of Janney Montgomery Scott.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
STEVE'S NOTE: Most stocks generally do well in a powerful bull market!!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - More Nightly Business Report
Market Monitor: Eugene Peroni, Jr. Of Janney Montgomery Scott
PAUL KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor this week is Eugene Peroni Jr., a senior vice president and chief of technical analysis for the Janney Montgomery Scott brokerage, he is based in Philadelphia. He is with us in our New York studio. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Gene.
PERONI: Nice to be back Paul. Thank you.
KANGAS: We know the stock market was ripe for profit taking and we know the bond market is what set it off. But why now? Why today?
PERONI: Well there had been some comments by several Fed officials lately and there indications that the economy was starting to heat up a bit. Also the gold stocks were staring to base and rally a little and I think that caused some concern consternation and as a result we did get this
correction and this move up in the long bond yield.
KANGAS: Well, you know, this time the market didn't snap back like it has on some of these other sell offs. We were down, I think, at worst 212 points. We only rallied back about 50. Is that meaningful?
PERONI: Well it is a little bit when we look at the individual configurations of the Dow Component stocks, especially the Blue Chips. Many have formed some near term topping formations and I think that that is going to keep the market or at least the Dow in a range for a little
while. What we are watching specifically here though is the long bond yield. If that begins to move decisively over 6.7 percent then I think that could stir added selling and possibly dipped as much as 5 percent. If we moved over 7 percent in the long bond yield then we would be looking more on the order of a 9 percent correction from the highs.
KANGAS: So we are talking somewhere around 800 points there.
PERONI: That's true. That could be a worse case, yes.
KANGAS: OK. Now one question I want to ask you Gene as a technical analysis or analyst. A lot of the tremendous power of this market has disrupted normal stock patterns. Chart patterns and so forth. It has almost made a mockery out of some of the old log standing patterns. Has this made technical analysis less useful?
PERONI: Not from our perspective. No. In fact it has made it more useful. We are very much of the momentum orientation so we certainly like to see stocks that are breaking out of formations. Out of consolidation trends and we've had just that. Actually we have had a very orderly advance
here in the manner in which many stocks have backed and filled and then moved up to higher levels is very encouraging here for the longer term.
KANGAS: OK. In defense of your type of analysis ( LAUGHTER ) , obviously Well anyway, last time you were with us, February 21st dial 6931 you were very bullish and you gave us some wonderful stocks, Allegheny Teledyne ( NYSE:ALT ) , Brunswick ( NYSE:BC ) , CVS ( NYSE:CVS ) , Honeywell ( NYSE:HON ) , Lucent ( NYSE:LU ) and Lexmark ( NYSE:LXK ) every one of them a winner. This is the third time in a row you haven't had one clinker that I can
complain about. What do we do with those that I mentioned? Sell any of them.
PERONI: Well to be honest with you I still like them so we rate them as attractive still even at these levels.
KANGAS: How about additions? What would you buy on this weakness? If at all.
PERONI; Well we like the oil stocks here. So we like ARCO ( NYSE:RCM ) and we also like the oil service group and in that regard we Varco ( NYSE:VRC ) symbol VRC. That's a machinery, oil equipment company. It looks very attractive to us. The broadcasting and telecommunications area looks good. We like Clear Channel ( NYSE:CCL ) and also Loral ( NYSE:LOR ) , space and communications and then we like some of the specialty manufacturing companies. A company like Carpenter Technology ( NYSE:CRS ) which is in specialty steel and Cooper Industries ( NYSE:CBE ) also looks good. The symbol there is CBE and we also like some of the aerospace
related companies including a little company Coltech ( NYSE:COT ) . The symbol there is COT and they make equipment and mechanisms for the air craft business.
KANGAS: All right. You know, long time ago I think three visits ago you gave us Clorox ( NYSE:CLX ) at 89. It's about 140 now. Avon ( NYSE:AVP ) products, Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ) , Conseco ( NYSE:CNC ) , Pfizer ( NYSE:PFE ) they are all way up like some of them doubled. Are you taking any profits in these yet?
PERONI: Not quite yet, no. Most are still holding onto their longer term trends and again our orientation really is not only to choose the best short term winners, but also look at the best long term leaders as well and those stocks are still in basis up trends here.
KANGAS: All right. You mentioned gold is making a little move. Is it a big enough move to buy some gold stocks here?
PERONI: I think that for those that want to hedge portfolios it is. Yes. I think that the gold group has bottomed here. There is some further upside but I wouldn't do it as a trading play. I would do it more as an investment longer term play. More as a hedge.
KANGAS: What stock do you like or two stocks maybe?
PERONI: Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) and Newmont Gold ( NYSE:NGC ) both look
attractive in the gold group.
KANGAS: OK. Thanks very much Dean. It's a pleasure to see you again.
PERONI: I enjoyed it. Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor, Eugene Peroni Jr., of Janney Montgomery Scott.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
STEVE'S NOTE: Most stocks generally do well in a powerful bull market!!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52
goldfinger THE ONE WHO MAKES THE RULES.>(THE ONE WHO MAKES THE RULES.): - Guard thy gold ! Good nite all.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - goldfinger -- like they say, debt and sorrow. They also say that the currency forms the basic unit of trust between a people and their goverment. Unstable currencies and States/societies seem to go hand in hand. The Thai regime is rumored to be toppling. The Mexican ruling
party, the PRI is losing grip rapidly.
In the greenback's visit to the Helium Reserve in the early
'Eighties perhaps something else was irrevocably dissipated.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - More Nightly Business Report
Market Monitor: Eugene Peroni, Jr. Of Janney Montgomery Scott
PAUL KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor this week is Eugene Peroni Jr., a senior vice president and chief of technical analysis for the Janney Montgomery Scott brokerage, he is based in Philadelphia. He is with us in our New York studio. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Gene.
PERONI: Nice to be back Paul. Thank you.
KANGAS: We know the stock market was ripe for profit taking and we know the bond market is what set it off. But why now? Why today?
PERONI: Well there had been some comments by several Fed officials lately and there indications that the economy was starting to heat up a bit. Also the gold stocks were staring to base and rally a little and I think that caused some concern consternation and as a result we did get this
correction and this move up in the long bond yield.
KANGAS: Well, you know, this time the market didn't snap back like it has on some of these other sell offs. We were down, I think, at worst 212 points. We only rallied back about 50. Is that meaningful?
PERONI: Well it is a little bit when we look at the individual configurations of the Dow Component stocks, especially the Blue Chips. Many have formed some near term topping formations and I think that that is going to keep the market or at least the Dow in a range for a little
while. What we are watching specifically here though is the long bond yield. If that begins to move decisively over 6.7 percent then I think that could stir added selling and possibly dipped as much as 5 percent. If we moved over 7 percent in the long bond yield then we would be looking more on the order of a 9 percent correction from the highs.
KANGAS: So we are talking somewhere around 800 points there.
PERONI: That's true. That could be a worse case, yes.
KANGAS: OK. Now one question I want to ask you Gene as a technical analysis or analyst. A lot of the tremendous power of this market has disrupted normal stock patterns. Chart patterns and so forth. It has almost made a mockery out of some of the old log standing patterns. Has this made technical analysis less useful?
PERONI: Not from our perspective. No. In fact it has made it more useful. We are very much of the momentum orientation so we certainly like to see stocks that are breaking out of formations. Out of consolidation trends and we've had just that. Actually we have had a very orderly advance
here in the manner in which many stocks have backed and filled and then moved up to higher levels is very encouraging here for the longer term.
KANGAS: OK. In defense of your type of analysis ( LAUGHTER ) , obviously Well anyway, last time you were with us, February 21st dial 6931 you were very bullish and you gave us some wonderful stocks, Allegheny Teledyne ( NYSE:ALT ) , Brunswick ( NYSE:BC ) , CVS ( NYSE:CVS ) , Honeywell ( NYSE:HON ) , Lucent ( NYSE:LU ) and Lexmark ( NYSE:LXK ) every one of them a winner. This is the third time in a row you haven't had one clinker that I can
complain about. What do we do with those that I mentioned? Sell any of them.
PERONI: Well to be honest with you I still like them so we rate them as attractive still even at these levels.
KANGAS: How about additions? What would you buy on this weakness? If at all.
PERONI; Well we like the oil stocks here. So we like ARCO ( NYSE:RCM ) and we also like the oil service group and in that regard we Varco ( NYSE:VRC ) symbol VRC. That's a machinery, oil equipment company. It looks very attractive to us. The broadcasting and telecommunications area looks good. We like Clear Channel ( NYSE:CCL ) and also Loral ( NYSE:LOR ) , space and communications and then we like some of the specialty manufacturing companies. A company like Carpenter Technology ( NYSE:CRS ) which is in specialty steel and Cooper Industries ( NYSE:CBE ) also looks good. The symbol there is CBE and we also like some of the aerospace
related companies including a little company Coltech ( NYSE:COT ) . The symbol there is COT and they make equipment and mechanisms for the air craft business.
KANGAS: All right. You know, long time ago I think three visits ago you gave us Clorox ( NYSE:CLX ) at 89. It's about 140 now. Avon ( NYSE:AVP ) products, Procter & Gamble ( NYSE:PG ) , Conseco ( NYSE:CNC ) , Pfizer ( NYSE:PFE ) they are all way up like some of them doubled. Are you taking any profits in these yet?
PERONI: Not quite yet, no. Most are still holding onto their longer term trends and again our orientation really is not only to choose the best short term winners, but also look at the best long term leaders as well and those stocks are still in basis up trends here.
KANGAS: All right. You mentioned gold is making a little move. Is it a big enough move to buy some gold stocks here?
PERONI: I think that for those that want to hedge portfolios it is. Yes. I think that the gold group has bottomed here. There is some further upside but I wouldn't do it as a trading play. I would do it more as an investment longer term play. More as a hedge.
KANGAS: What stock do you like or two stocks maybe?
PERONI: Newmont Mining ( NYSE:NEM ) and Newmont Gold ( NYSE:NGC ) both look
attractive in the gold group.
KANGAS: OK. Thanks very much Dean. It's a pleasure to see you again.
PERONI: I enjoyed it. Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: My Guest Market Monitor, Eugene Peroni Jr., of Janney Montgomery Scott.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
STEVE'S NOTE: Most stocks generally do well in a powerful bull market!!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52
goldfinger THE ONE WHO MAKES THE RULES.>(THE ONE WHO MAKES THE RULES.): - Guard thy gold ! Good nite all.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:52
Eldorado @tTHEscene>(@tTHEscene): - Jack -- Will THEY succeed? Perhaps for awhile. So much of what 'they' do depends on so many scenarios happening, and so many others not happpening! We really do live in a house of cards where the wind is 'picking up'! You tell me the alternatives. I'd be most happy to hear them!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:40
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Nightly Business Report: http://www.nightlybusiness.com
Commentator Louis Uchitelle On Inflation & The Labor Force
CASSIE SEIFERT: In tonight's commentary, Louis Uchitelle, economics writer for the New York Times, discusses inflation and its relationship to America's labor force.
LOUIS UCHITELLE, COMMENTARY: Inflation, once such a problem for the American economy, is taking quite a beating lately. Global competition, too much industrial capacity, job insecurity, consumer resistance to price increases. All these have combined to keep the inflation rate well below the levels that prevailed just a few years ago. And now a new anti-inflation factor has made a appearance. It is above normal labor force growth. The labor force consists of the 129 million people at work and the nearly 7 million actively seeking jobs. Normally this pool of
workers and job seekers grows by about 1 percent a year, roughly matching the population growth, but over the last 18 months the labor force has grown much more rapidly. Thousands of the new entrants are making a forced transition from welfare to work, but many companies unable
to hire enough people are recruiting among men and woman outside the labor force. Mothers at home raising children for example, ex-prisoners with criminal records and men over 55 lured back from retirement. The above normal labor force growth could continue for the rest of the century, some economist believe. If it does the inflation pressure that often results from labor shortages will be diluted. And that will leave the Federal Reserve with one less justification for raising interest
rate to slow the economy. I'm Louis Uchitelle.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:38
Jack The big buyout>(The big buyout): -
Eldorado: ( 01:08 ) Good post, the CABAL has decided to
drive US incomes down and their riches up. Good point,
about no material income increases in the developing
countries. As they profit both ways -we are shafted. A
trench won't help, even a deep one, cause they will try
to bury us. Will they succeed? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:37
goldfinger WHO CARES>(WHO CARES): - I'm in the same camp you are. I too am debt free and will save and invest in several areas of the markets. I like real estate and I think it's ready to make a move north. Also bringing up the fact of being debt free has a great advantage that not many realize. You raise your standard of living and your increase in savings and investment can change your life. In fact even if I thought leveraging would make me alot of money I would'nt do it. I like being able to sleep at night. It serves me well. The money is not worth the agony. Besides how much do you really need to be happy. It's never enough, so I learn to live within my means and thats plenty. Besides try and take care of it all. I firmly believe that debt is a catalyst to unhappyness.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:33
Jack The big buyout>(The big buyout): -
Eldorado: ( 01:08 ) Good post, the CABAL has decided to drive US incomes down and their riches up. Good point, about no material income increases in the developing countries. As they profit both ways -we are shafted. A trench won't help, even a deep one, cause they will try to bury us. Will they succeed? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:32
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - Auric -- Feds are ALWAYS wrong! That is simply because they are Nazis at heart, whereas the TRUE nature of government officials should be populist/servants of the people. Personally, I think it is time to start strapping on a sidearm to the thigh before one leaves the homestead. Cops are there to pick up the remains; long after the fact of the act! Besides, which Amendment of THE Constitution forbids me to?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:30
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Barron's parallels on Stock Mkt.
http://nw3.nai.net/~virtual/sot/history.htm
JAN: Thanks for your concern re: Richard Russell. Am aware of need for diverse views, hence absorb Kitco heavily. Possibly Russell has lifted his game when you cancelled your subscription. Nothing like changing the spin when the overall game changes. I have learned more about technical indicators from the gurus, more than anything else. But still must advise in light of big picture/reality. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:23
Who Cares Thanks>(Thanks): -
Well, thanks for the compliment. Between you and me, I have
almost a ZERO tolerance for risk. I sure can't see buying
bonds or stocks. I foolishly let myself get suckered in '93
on U.S. bonds and lost several thousand in the '94 selloff.
It sucked. I was really stupid. I should have know better.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:19
Auric @home>(@home): -
I watched the movie Goldfinger about a week ago. Strangest thing, I actually found myself cheering for Auric Goldfinger. I think he was really a good person, just misunderstood! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:18
goldfinger WHO CARES>(WHO CARES): - I think everyone has turned in. Either we are boring the heck out of them or their fast asleep or both. Your postings are great. Keep em coming. Unless the fish start biting I'm out of here.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:17
Eldorado @tTHEscene>(@tTHEscene): - oldman -- No doubt they became millionaires becaus of Reagan! HAR! But, thanks for your thoughts on the paper and gold! MUCH appreciated. Kind of echo my own anyway. This paper sh*t ain't quite over yet IMHO. Unfortunately, it'll wind up being a case of 'I wish that hadn't happened' as gold climbs over 2K! So much is going to go out the proverbial window when that happens, and it'll be for 'real'! It may be a nice day for gold but it'll be hell for everything else! One has to be careful for what you wish for!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:17
Who Cares? Gold>(Gold): -
My personal opinion about gold -
I believe that sometime in the near future, possible until
2007 as you mentioned, there will be a collapse of leveraged
assets. I suppose I buy Precter's model in general, although
I don't believe it will be that extreme.
I believe that gold will lose less value than most other
assets, I believe that debt will be especially hard hit.
I believe that at some point, gold will make a sharp and
unexpected spike, which will serve to put governments on
notice to either HONOR their PAPER, or suffer the
consequences.
I believe the HARD decision will be at that time. Do I
sell out at the spike, expecting governments to honor their
paper? What if they don't, after I sell?
What if they DO, but I don't sell? Then I miss the high point.
I'm waiting for this event. I hold about 1/3 of my total
savings in physical coins. I have zero leveraging. I'm
working to have my house completely paid for within the
next five years, leaving me with zero debt.
I think the sharpest pundit to date has been Alfred Malabre,
in his book Beyond Our Means. I strongly recommend it.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:09
Who Cares Goldfinger versus Mr. Bond!>(Goldfinger versus Mr. Bond!): -
Goldfinger - oh, oh, NOW you're starting to sound like a
conspiracy theorist. I happily admit that the Almanac
could be wrong. However, it's the best estimate I have,
and even if it's off by 50%, it doesn't change the overall
result.
And, if I were inclined to think the Almanac was wrong,
I would be inclined to think that Uncle Sam has PUMPED up
his asset sheet, not understated it. : )
Regardless of the balance sheet numbers - real estate does
not automatically increase in value. Somebody, somewhere,
must have a PURPOSE for it. A simple analogy - why did
Bill Gates not buy the entire city of Seattle, rather than
settling for a shrimpy 20,000 sq. ft. house? He has NO USE
for it. : )
Have you visited San Simeon? Wait, wait, is that the name?
Dang it, I can't remember now. The Hearst estate just north
of Morro Bay, CA. I mean, it's *really* not that big. Even
if you could get Gates to buy Yosemite, what would he DO with
99% of it, except rent it out, just like it's being rented
now? : ) It cost Hearst a BUNDLE to build that place, a bundle
to build the dock, ship stuff in. The great majority of
potential buyers just aren't interested in doing something like
that.
I bought a small plot of land this year. I drive 17 miles to
work. I *could* have bought something FIVE times the size,
but I would then have to drive 35 miles per day. Besides,
have you ever OWNED 4 or 5 acres? It's just a pain to keep up,
weeds, fences, driveway, taxes, etc. : )
I believe that the balance sheet argument is hard to defend
as a justification to cover Sam's liabilities. A much better
argument is that he can raise taxes to some breaking point. : )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:06
goldfinger Who cares>(Who cares): - What do you think about gold? Lets change coarse. Although it's been fun who cares.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 02:01
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - WHAT? -- Someone going to bed when we just now get a GOOD SCENE going? THE BEST we've had going ALL WEEK? Sleep is for tomorrow in THIS case! IMHO!!!!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:57
goldfinger who cares>(who cares): - Who cares, and I'm suppose to believe The World Almanac and the library. The people doing the research know so much about it and that makes it right. Don't believe everything you read. From reading your postings I doubt if they know anymore than you. Nothing is set in stone and I can't buy that these references are accurate.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:54
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - goldfinger - chosen to live in spectacular natural beauty all my life.
Northern Minnesota for 30 years, now the Oregon coast for a dozen.
On that value scale it's worth a life - me & mine. We were talking squaring the assets with the liabilities. We know what the liabilities are worth in today's market. The value of the assets, in dollars, was the point. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:51
oldman tedot@ibm.net>(tedot@ibm.net): - GSCOLE: Now I know why I quit posting for 6 mos. This dang thing is addictive. Even interferes with your sleep. Market view: Stocks, dollar, and bonds and gold correcting. New highs to come in the first 3 and new lows in the latter. One more run to the top. Keep some powder dry.
WW: A once great man once said that if you werent a socialist at 20, you had no heart. But if you werent a conservative at 40 you had no brain. Maybe you'll grow out of it. Many have---myself included. When I was teaching young skulls full of mush at Cornell, we were visited by the student body presidents of Dartmouth and Brown, for a big pro Viet Cong, Go, Go, Ho rally. They raised their clinched fists and shouted, Pray for a Soviet America. 25 years later, when they became Sec'y of Labor and head of the Presidents Health Care Task Force, respectively, their financial disclosure forms showed that they had both joined that group you resent so much----They were BOTH MILLIONAIRES!
Thats all for sure. I'll answer anything else later. gone. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:51
6pak Eldorado @ 1:33>(Eldorado @ 1:33): - I was joking, hell, shi* will happen, it is a natural happening. : ) : )
I just seen this guy digging a hole, to be on stand by, It caught me
funny. : ) : ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:51
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - oldman -- Perhaps you see the futility of talking with a liberal/socialist. They seem to be totally beyond any reasoning powers! Best to simply ignore them and let them babble amongst each other. I must say that there must be a comprehension gene they are lacking! Interestingly enough, when they aren't talking 'politics', they seem to be fairly knowledgable. I know that WW, at least, has been very insightful in these markets! Interestingly so! In THAT regards, I take my hat off!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:50
Who Cares? Yosemite is MINE!>(Yosemite is MINE!): -
Goldfinger - Sir, I have no USE for Yosemite, ergo I have no
interest in purchasing it. : ) I also have no use for an
aircraft carrier, M-1 Abrahms, nerve gas, public housing,
or the assets of the Federal government that consist of
long-term payments to various interest groups. : )
Besides, MCA already owns Yosemite. : ) Check it out. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:49
Bullshit .....>(.....): -
They all work for the same cabal and that ain't no bullshit. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:47
Who Cares? Goldfinger & the Library>(Goldfinger & the Library): -
Just as I thought. You dreamed up your justification and
never really examined it. : ) Hey, if I had my almanac, I'd
post the numbers, but I'm sure not going to go out to my
garage at 1 AM in morning and unpack all those boxes.
I imagine you can get the same numbers from the CIA website. : )
Just remember, *I* am not the one betting on Uncle Sam's
assets, ergo it doesn't matter to me if you do an estimate
or not. : ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:43
goldfinger RE: 01:22>(RE: 01:22): - Just as I thought. You failed to supply any reliable information on U.S. assets. I know what a thousand billion is, but is only paper. You can't buy some things no matter how much your willing to spend. Maybe you should think about how much fun you would have if you moved to another planet. My point is this is basicly all we have here on earth is finite. There are no other planets that suit our needs and if there is we'll never see them and our grandchildren after that and so on and so forth won't either.
If what you say is true then go out and find another Grand Canyon for sale or how about Yellowstone National Park or all the Rockies. Good luck in your endevors. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:42
WW @NE>(@NE): - ONE PEOPLE MANY HAPPILY MIXED CULTURES: LIVE IT AND BELIEVE IT.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:39
oldman *>(*): - WW: What a relief! You are a lawyer! And I was starting to believe that you REALLY BELIEVED all that liberal multi-cultural crap. Now that I know better, I can go to bed and sleep well. Goodnite----really.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:36
Who Cares? GodDAMN, but that wa funny>(GodDAMN, but that wa funny): -
WW is not in acadame, I am. : ) WW is a LAWYER. : )
Oh, man, this was great, it almost split my sides. WW:
I can tell you where great fortune resides...
In being the fellow that imposes an Object-oriented
structure on The Law. : ) And it IS coming, one way or
another. : ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:33
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - 6pak -- IMHO, Get a little bit worried. Sometimes, sh*t can come down hard. Call it 'insurance' if nothing else. I'd LOVE if I never had to depend on it! Hell, I'd LOVE to be ignorant at this point! It's not like I haven't asked, but so far, I find no one that disputes the premise. Therefore...., I find no alternative. What else can I say? If I EVER believe something else, I WILL post it! Until then, I will continue to add 1+1=2 and 2+2=4, etc!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:32
WW @NE>(@NE): - OLDMAN: The problems you speak of are the result of overly pro business anti-labor policies. I AM not in academe I am a practicing Attorney.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:30
Who Cares? U.S. Assets, Redux>(U.S. Assets, Redux): -
You can also check the World Almanac for a rough estimate of
TOTAL assets of the Federal government. Last time I checked,
it was in the neighborhood of $16T or so, but that includes
quite a few things that probably are poor sales items, like
nuclear weapons, combat troops, Congressional interns, Clinton's
memoirs, etc. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:26
Who Cares? U.S. Assets>(U.S. Assets): -
Goldfinger - {sigh} If I must. You can go to the World Almanac,
get a listing of the total square miles owned by the Federal
government. You can then, from various commercial sources,
create an average weighed value. Multipy the first by the second.
In 1994, it came out around $3.5 trillion. I doubt it has
changed much.
I would also humbly submit that you have made several errors in
your reasoning -
#1 - if you examine the actual holdings of Uncle Sam, you
will discover that much of it is worthless to the average
person, i.e it is located away from areas where people can
actual earn a living.
#2 - You assume that Uncle Sam will be able to sell it
at market price. If, in fact, Sam is pressed to sell off
assets, the effect on the real estate market would be
interesting, to say the least.
#3 - Anyone actually BUYING land from Uncle Sam would need
a PURPOSE for it. Since they will now have to pay taxes and
upkeep on it.
#4 - A great deal of the land that is owned by the Federal
government is now in contention with State governments. I have
examined the actual lawsuits involved, and if they are
settled on the basis of LAW and the CONSTITUTION, the Federal
government will have far fewer assets than even the Almanac
lists.
Poor information is a terrible thing to rely on. : )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:26
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - goldfinger - there are one thousand billion in a trillion.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:26
oldman encore>(encore): - WW: I got it! You're in Academe. Only a Ph.D. would have made your last post. When I went to Akron in the early '60s there were 55,000 hourly tire workers. Before the Gipper ever even gave a tax cut, THEY WERE ALL GONE. And you think the problem started with him! Wake up. Your civilization is crumbling around you. Your jobs are going to the third world, your wages are going in the basement,You cant safely walk your streets, your schools arent fit for human use, you're being invaded by alien hordes whose stated purpose is to rip your country apart and give a large section of it back to Mexico, etc.,etc., and you wax euphoric about the government butting its nose into private affairs to make sure that slackers can get time off from the job.
No employer would refuse leave to a GOOD employee who had a family or medical emergency. Whew! That IS all. Gone. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:25
George Cole George Wallace>(George Wallace): - OLDMAN:As George Wallace said in the 1960s -- There ain't a dime's worth of difference between them.
BTW, what is your take on the markets now? - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:25
WW @NE>(@NE): - OLDMAN:: The problems of the cities have been brought on by social neglect not an activist progressive govt. This is the result of the right wing selfish trend of the last 25 yrs. Get with it see it fer what it is!! Yes I am a Labor loving Liberal Democrat and proud of it!! We are America's Future and Hope once the grey conservative right wing elitist stench is lifted from this potentially progressive land!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:24
goldfinger RE: TED>(RE: TED): - Thanks for your comments, but are you bluffing or what? No really! I can't write' at least I didn't think I could.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:23
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - MILLHOUSE: Thank you for your excellent crystalline response re: Australian vs HK tax/economy etc. Perth residential real estate is slowly starting to turn up, with much more action happening in the 5km radius of Perth city, as in Sydney & Melbourne. Anything for over 50's ( 3 bed/2 bath/no garden ) . Outer metro burbs have struggled for ages. Industrial real estate is certainly strengthening, probably more than commercial at the moment. Driven by Mining Industry needs & slow pick up in farming sector etc.
TAXES: When visiting HK last in 1995, what amazed me is that many of the citizens who earn under certain threshold do not pay income tax at all. I think that is an excellent idea. If those people don't pay tax, they have more money for their own social service needs anyhow. Not to mention the many million of tax returns etc that do not need to processed ( and Govt money wasted on monitoring ) . My father wrote to PM John Howard about that idea just after him winning Govt. I told Dad that he was wasting his time. I know a bit too much about executive govt. BTW, all this baloney about Pauline Hansen being a racist is a smoke screen. She is the manifestation of the Australian tax payers disgust at executive Govt, which is hell bent on creating social division through the welfare system here. People have had enough, & they don't give a hoot about certain rich socialites in HK going on about it. While we are concerned about the effect on tourism, the Hansen phenomenon is a lot bigger than so called racism. The big govt & big media interests are worried because she is now the rallying point for a lot of varied interests who want to blow their destructive program apart. Nothing better than to smear Hansen with the racist deal. Get ready for a new media spin. Hansen & a small entourage of Australians roll up in Japan or some other Asian countries, & demand to purchase some real estate. Obviously they will get knocked back. It would look good on Sixty Minutes, worldwide. But here, it is almost open slather. While I am not that concerned about foreign ownership, as it is a two way street, the fact of the matter is that many thinking Australians feel powerless with our executive Govt, and are very aware of the stronger Asian economies, & their rules which benefit them, but not us. This is about our inability to implement effective economic policy in a rapidly changing environment. Nothing to do with racism. BTW, I do NOT belong to Hansen's outfit at all. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:22
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - who cares - I've seen a similar private estimate of federal assets
compiled - real estate, highways, dams, buildings, etc. not amount to
the official outstanding debt...and widening ( depreciation, etc. )
The Republican 'revolution' promised an independent accounting
audit of the entire federal goverment according to FASB standards,
Newt personally pledging as I recall. I'm still waiting, even for
another word of it. I strongly suspect it could not even be performed.
For one thing the enormity, for another, the mess the books are in. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:21
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - ww -- One question: Do you get remuneration for your liberal/non-sensical/non-sequitar postings here? I do enjoy your gold related ones so much more! And I do thank you for those!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:18
Who Cares? Clinton is doing the best that he can?!!!!>(Clinton is doing the best that he can?!!!!): -
WW: You can't be serious.
If you are indeed serious, I would humbly submit that you
are a victim of monopolization of information, and should
immediately seek out as many different information sources
on the Net as possible. To work with poor and inaccurate
information is to court disaster.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:18
6pak Eldorado @ 1:08>(Eldorado @ 1:08): - Should we Canadians consider having a foxhole, and how many are required
per family, and of course, how deep should these foxholes be ?
I should be worried eh ! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:17
goldfinger RE: Who cares>(RE: Who cares): - When did you last examine the U.S. assets? I would place a bet in the highest degree you wouldn't have a glue. Please post a value on our national parks and explain how you came up with such a value and if you are qualified in that area of expertise. Is there a replacement cost and where did you get your comp's from? I'll be waiting.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:14
oldman One more time>( One more time): - WW: Oh, dear, this is worse than I thought. I'm beginning to think that you really believe in liberalism. Most smart liberals dont really believe it---they just use it to get ahead. They can't deny the plain fact that they have utterly destroyed virtually everything they have aimed their policies at. Detroit, Miami and D.C. being exhibits 1 through 3. The public schools are numbers 4 through 10.
Yup, to most smart Liberals, their scheme is for the commoners. They, the elite want no part of it. If they did, they'd sell their homes in the gated communities and move into the ghetto where they could enjoy the fruits of their labors. Klinton, Gore and Jesse Jackson have several things in common, among which is the fact that they ALL sent their kids to Sidwell Friends School, ( cost:$12k/yr ) when the D.C. public schools, spending 10k/pupil/yr were readily available to them. BTW, neither of the three EVER worked a day at an honest job in their entire lives!
goodnite all. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:10
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - 6pak: An interesting post on Canadian monetary matters. I never miss your stuff.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:08
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - oldman -- As you know, I'm for the way old Henry Ford operated: Pay the workers such that they too could by the product! This, in my mind IS the bottom line to this whole industrial complex, where ever it resides! Just SIMPLY THAT! Jeesh, how hard can it be? Will they do that? Have they been doing that? I DON'T think so!. So, how can they expect this 'growth' to continue? NO WAY is it possible, especially as we see our factories move elsewheres, our tax base decline, our homeless rate increase, and all leading to a an increase in the crime rate! The BIG spiral South! Now we are beginning to see the results of these deadend policies! Currency crises? We haven't seen ANYTHING yet! As long as these anti-growth policies exist, I WILL be digging my 'foxhole deeper!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:07
WW @NE>(@NE): - OLDMAN:: The problems for working people began with the election of Ronald Reagan. With a Republican Congress trying to destroy working people's gains Clinton is doing the best that can be expected. He did veto Tort reform which is a benefit to consumers and he has pushed for medical benefits for children and he has led the anti-tobacco crusade.
And how about the Family Medical Leave Act OLDMAN. A great pro working person law ferociously opposed by NEWT!!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:07
Who Cares? U.S. assets>(U.S. assets): -
I would humbly submit, Mr. Goldfinger, that you have not
personally tried to estimate the actual assets of the U.S.
government. I have. As near as I can estimate, the real
estate holdings do total up to $3-4 trillion ( assuming
the current market price, hardly what I would expect,
assuming a Uncle Sam fire sale ) , which doesn't even come
close to covering $20 trillion in liabilities. Toss in
some buildings, aircraft carriers, etc, if you want to.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:04
goldfinger RE: DONALD 14:40 / ELDO 22:11>(RE: DONALD 14:40 / ELDO 22:11): - The assets of the United States is staggering contrary to the opinion of some. In fact it would be impossible to put a price on it. But lets see now if you add in all the territories, possessions, national parks, military, real estate, gross national product, natural resources, buildings, etc. the valuations would be phenomenal. In fact put a price on our national parks. They are priceless folks. They can't make any, they are irreplaceable. This country has assets no one can buy. Just our natural resources could be worth several trillion. If gold does get going we would benifit most because we own most of it. But this country does have plenty of assets to back our currency. The John Doe public does't have to fork over a nickel.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:01
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Hot Damn! Its saturday night. A couple of drinks ...... and the fun begins. .... But after an hour and a half on the phone with my soon to be ex-wife, I think I'll just sit here quietly and dodge the airborne mashed potatoes.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 01:00
Ted @go UPS>(@go UPS): - You couldn't find a more union-controlled area than right here in Cape Breton and the end product is a DESTRUCTION of a culture and a ONCE ( hard to believe ) hard wokin people...It's black+white here!...Two AM on the East coast and even us pigs need some shut-eye...Good night ALL!....and go GOLD and ABX!....even if Peter Munk is one of THEM....nite!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:59
6pak Goldfinger @ 00:32>( Goldfinger @ 00:32): - Goldfinger, right on, why look at the time frame of 1920-29.
to understand an investment opportunity that could exist today.
Obviously that time frame, is a very gloomy period of history.
An investment opportunity exists right now in 1997.
North American is in a DOOM and GLOOM, BOOMING Business.
Drugs Man, Drugs, Kennedy did well with booze, didn't he ?
Step right up, and get your new, and improved fix, eh! : ) : ) : ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:59
oldman *>(*): - WW: This, and no more. The Klinton Demokraps do not represent working people. The movement in the income distribution tables clearly prove it. The inequality has gotten much more pronounced under the Klintonistas than it did under the Liberals favorite bogeyman, the Gipper. The core constituency of the Democrap Party is a conglomeration of government employees, radical feminists, pushy queers , welfare recipients, and New York Finance Capitalists. Not a worker among them. 'Nuff said.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:58
Tired of the BS>(of the BS): - WW- I would say she was more of a Hillary type. But she was better looking and heck of alot better looking legs.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:57
WW @NE>(@NE): - OLDMAN: I really dont like Clinton I just think he is better than the Republican alternative. I am really a Gephardt/Kennedy/Bonior/Wellstone fan.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:52
WW @New England>(@New England): - LOVE YA COMMENTS GSC!! You hit the nail on the head!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:51
oldman tedot@ibm.net>(tedot@ibm.net): - WW: No offense meant, but doyou sork for the Klinton Administration? If you don't, then your ire is grossly misdirected. Newt Gingrich, who has never lifted a finger to stop the destruction of this society which has continued apace for half a century, who claims the New Age babblers Alvin and Heidi Toffler as gurus, who helped Klinton saddle the American wage and salary earner with NAFTA and GATT, and who said as recently as last month on CSPAN that he agreed with Klinton 99% of the time is NOT A RIGHT WINGER. Believe me, I know, 'cause I ARE ONE.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:49
WW @NE>(@NE): - Tired:: Your first wife sounds like a NEWT sort of Person and not a true Rooseveltian Economic Liberal.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:49
George Cole Go Teamsters>(Go Teamsters): - Shek; 50% in FSAGX, 50% in FSPMX
All: From a purely selfish point of view, GO TEAMSTERS. THE BETTER THEY AND THE LABOR MOVEMENT DO, THE BETTER GOLD WILL DO. One of the reasons i am so bullish on gold is that I agree with Steve Roach that a huge workers' backlash against an utterly ruthless corporate America is about to unfold.
This ruthlessness and fanatiC devotion to the bottom line, no matter what the human cost, has been the key force behind the stock boom. But the upcoming revolt against it will be a key force behind the looming golden spike and stock smash. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:43
Ted @WW>(@WW): - WW: I get MAD when ya call Newt a sleeze ball.....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:42
Ted @Goldfinger>(@Goldfinger): - Goldfinger ( 00:32 ) If I could write ( or type ) I would have said just what YOU did....Three cheers for a voice of reason!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:42
WW @NE>(@NE): - STEVE: Paying taxes is part of living in an ordered Democratic society!
Oldman: I agree that Clinton is in part pro business and anti labor based on NAFtA and GaTT. But at least he wanted labor/environmental reform include therein. Further the Dems voted net against Nafta and Clinton NEEDED NEWT ( sleaze ball ) and Dol to get it through. At the end of the day it is the Republicans that are ferociously against working people and the Dems and to a lesser extent Clinton who look out for their interests. The record shows this. There is nothing even remotely pro worker about the Republican Party and its Leadership! The Dems are clearly on the record less against working people. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:41
oldman *>(*): - aurophile:As I told you earlier, men like Ford, Walton, Woolworth, etc, were CREATORS of wealth, as I formerly was. Rubin, Eisner, etc., are GETTERS of wealth, as I now am, without creating anything. Where WW and others have missed it is that there once was a time when the employees of the CREATORS, feeling they should have a bigger slice of the pie, enlisted the help of labor leaders like John L. Lewis and the Democratic Party to help them get a better shake of the dice.
Now the getters of wealth are squeezing the creators and their employees for the last shekel, and the Klinton Administration is a wholly-owned subsidiary of that sorry gang. So-called labor leaders, like sweeney and trumka expend much more effort attempting to advance affirmative action, gay rights and open borders than in improving the economic status of their members.
As the Late,Great Sir James said, The people of the West will catch on, and there better be crocs in the moat when that happens. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:40
Eldorado @THE scene>(@THE scene): - oldman -- YOU NEED to post here MORE, if I may say! You have it right!
WW -- The Bill of Rights wasn't made FOR the people. It was made FOR the government; that they COULD NOT trespass against US! In all actuality, the people have UNLIMITED rights! Just that they also allow all others the same due regard against harm. Don't give me all your arguments as I know all of them. But this concept comes mainly from Christian concepts. Something mostly unknown in this day and age. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:39
tired of the BS>(of the BS): - WW I work for a living. Up at 5:30 AM - Home at 6:00 PM ( 5 days a week ) .
I have a family which I do not plan to destroy ( My wife is a Republican and believes in family values. )
My exwife was a liberal ( she was feminist, believed in abortion, and was a self concerned bitch who ran off with a wealthier man. ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:36
Ted @Newt-meister>(@Newt-meister): - What a great American....and husband....They's all da same dude...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:33
Ted @Eldorado>(@Eldorado): - Hi Eldorado....well said....Have tried to maintain MY rights by kepping my distance......
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:32
goldfinger RE: DJ 15:05>(RE: DJ 15:05): - I keep hearing 1929 senerio in my sleep after reviewing several postings by many. Comparing 1929 ditto to our day in age is misplaced. We could be entering a very long extended boom cycle which will leave alot of you not behind but eating everyones dust. And it won't be gold dust either. Sure we will have booms and busts, but I sincerely doubt any of you are going to be ahead trying to time it. The big bust may not hit till 2007 and some of you doom and gloomers will be waiting 9 years and in the meantime real estate prices have risen 200 % and the DOW is at 20000. You can lose your shirt trying to time a bust. Diversification is the key. If you want some more insurance buy more gold, but don't bet the farm on 1929 senerio. Anyone banking on that maybe a grave mistake. Sometimes what we learn from history is nothing.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:29
WW @ne>(@ne): - Tired: It was the actions FDR that ended the depression not the least of which was ending the Republican pro wealthy tax policies of the 20s along with instituting social and welfare reforms which ( god forbid ) actually helped the American workers and thus their Families ( and I suspect their family values ) . The Conservatives are full of S___ and are basically selfish and against people who work for a living and can use help to increase their std of living. Their policies are anti family values in the same vein as Newt serving divorce papers on his wife while she was in the hospital with cancer/ WHAT A GUY!! Typical Conservative hypocrit!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:29
Ted @Puetz>(@Puetz): - Evening Puetz!....no offense meant earlier....just defense!...Tomorrow night will be interesting...eh..
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:27
Eldorado @The scene>(@The scene): - Ted -- Actually and simply, MO POWER! In every war this country has 'experienced', more 'rights' of the people have been relinquished and never 'reclaimed'. NOT that rights are ever lost, as they are NOT given by governments, but the acknowlegment of those rights BY THE PEOPLE become clouded and dusted over and not then seen by THE PEOPLE! Perhaps a lot of it is based upon the people losing their site on WHOM actually conveys the rights upon them!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:26
aurophile f>(f): - Oldman: It's Retropublicans and Democraps, please!!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:26
Ted @oldman>(@oldman): - Oldman ( 00:20 ) Spoken with years of wisdom...Bravo!...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:26
Who Cares? Frames of Referenc4e>(Frames of Referenc4e): -
Like I said, everyone should adjust their frames of reference:
From inflation ==== deflation, to status quo ===== status no
From Republican ==== Democrat, to statist ===== libertarian
From union ==== company, to free market ==== monopoly. : )
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:25
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WW: How does the fact that the government forces me to pay taxes ( under the threat of imprisonment, if I don't ) enhance my individual liberties?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:20
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WW: If you are so against capital formation, why are you investing to make money? Isn't that a paradox? At what point do you stop earning money, so that you don't become a filthy millionaire? -- $500,000, $750,000, or $990,000? Let me know. Are all millionaires filthy? What evidence do you have to support that statement?
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:20
oldman tedot@ibm.net>(tedot@ibm.net): - WW: Sometimes I think you might have a clue as to what the problem is, but, if you think that newt and trent are more pro big money and anti little guy than Bobby Rubin, Bill C. and co., you need to do a little thinking. No administration in history has done more to destroy the relative power of wage and salary workers viz a vis Big Money than has this Demo gang. As if NAFTA and GATT--compliments of the first Klinton term--- were not enough of a millstone about the neck of the American people, The Slickster is now asking for fast track authority to bring the rest of the third world into direct competition with Americans.
This is not said out of any personal interest. I sold my business a few days after Rubin and Slick took over. They've multiplied my net worth, but personal bankruptcies amont the common folks are at an all-time high in the 6th year of an economic expansion.
If you can see a dimes worth of difference between the Republicrats and the other party, you have better eyes than newt and Klinton have. Such a love fest has not been seen along the Potomac since Wilbur and Fanny cavorted thereabouts. - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:19
WW @NE>(@NE): - Clinton's POPULARITY AT NEW HIGH!!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:19
Ted @gone from Vermont>(@gone from Vermont): - a few unpleasantries....RAPE...ADULTRY....MURDER...
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:19
6pak David @ 23:55>(David @ 23:55): - Gold - Fire - Rich
Great offer, David : ) ; ) : ) - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:18
tired of the BS>(of the BS): - WW Surely you mean Theodore R. When FDR came into office there was no place for the economy to go but up. What pulled this country together was WWII. So all you liberals, put a sock in it.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:18
WW @NE>(@NE): - TED::: Get with it will ya!!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:17
Eldorado @The scene>(@The scene): - WW -- Har and HAR!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:14
Ted @cherokee>(@cherokee): - Headphones tightly strapped on.....think I can see them smoke signals and the flux is gettin closer...I'm glad yer back dude.....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:14
Niner goldfinger: I couldn't agree more.>(goldfinger: I couldn't agree more.): - Your point is well taken. As I stated in an earlier post, I bought myself some insurance in the form of some Jun '98 out-of-the-money call options about the time gold was tanking at ~315 . . . I'd hate to be at Disneyworld and see on the evening news that gold closed at 355 . . . !
As the saga unfolds I will be watching and adding to my position if we see a bigger hit. I'm just afraid that a reversal at this juncture would be somewhat anticlimactic. This is only my opinion, based on 17 years of gold's past performance and my own contrarian views.
Best Regards and Great Trading,
NIner
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:12
milanese @montana>(@montana): - Pepita: Buona notte bambina.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:11
Ww @NE>(@NE): - Nobody said the Kennedys were perfect. Given the size of the brood no doubt there has to be a few unpleasantries. Their politics are good and in the spirit of the greatest American of this century FDR!!
How about the divorcers/philanderers ( better known as the family values gang ) Ronnie Rayguns/ Newt and Bobbie Dolee HAR HAR. The paragons of virtue HARHAR!! - Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- Should I ever wind up on welfare, I shall thank you to my dying day! Between then and then, I will toast you every day as I luxuriate at the beach. What type of beer do you like that I should toast you with, or do you require a nice wine? Whatever, I'll be sure to give you your just due! I would really feel very guilty without at least doing this much for my benefactor!
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:04
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - WW - It's not that a common people at a common point in history divided
by the Berlin wall failed on one side. It was just poorly mangaged.
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:03
Ted @Dikie Gephardt>(@Dikie Gephardt): - Dickie Gephardt...hahaha...The most dangerous politician in the USA if you overlook Bernie Sanders ( Rep.VERMONT ) ...as for the Kennedy family...they were washed up FIFTY years ago and at least the old man knew how to MAKE a buck....not SQUANDER it....Most over-rated family in the USA!..john-john, is the U.S. media groommin em ta be in the big house? Only took em three tries ta pass his bar exams...And then there's Teddy...fat boy...a murderer ( just like OJ ) ....Robert Jr and the baby sitter....hahaha...They care about the little people har har har ( as hepcat would say ) ...god bless em....The rapist cousin's name has slipped my mind...but what the heck...eh....CamelNOT....
- Date: Sun Aug 10 1997 00:00
Pepino di Cortino Ey WW isza right>(Ey WW isza right): -
The Gippa guy and dissa Busha guy; they two bigga assaholes, we no lika here in Cortino. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:59
WW @NE>(@NE): - Hey most of the rich and privileged earned every penny of that inheritance and educational and career advantage from their family's wealth!! HAHA!! Savers/inventors/producres give me a break the goal of capital is to screw and steal from the foregoing!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:55
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Hey, 6pak ( ur 22:59 post ) , & Mike S.,
Since you guys are getting woo-woo spiritual & philosophical, thought I'd risk 'diving right in':
What about Passion for own's own dream, one's own passion in life...in other words, what about 'settling' for the passion for one's own unique, individual passion in life. When we get caught up in trying to identify, and/or pronounce Truth, we are headed in the wrong direction, esp. if we intend to educate/enlighten someone else to 'our truth'....which may not be 'their truth', at all. We are, each and every one of us on this earth, inherently made of 'the stuff of integrity', just like gold is. And each of us creates our own reality perhaps, and our own truth. So maybe our integrity is assured, if we each but live our dream, our passion in life, passionately. Like Joseph Campbell said it: follow your bliss. ... And here are a couple lines from ( Christain Bible ) Revelations, chap. 3, verse 18 ( -since you're referencing the Muslim Koran, & the Bible...in kitco's discussion grp., already! ) : I advise you to buy from Me gold refined by fire, that you may become rich... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:54
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Aurophile -- I DO know where you are coming from! There are, as usual, two ways look at it. The consumer continues to take it on the chin and we wind up in a very serious depression as they cannot be the 'consumers' of today or tomorrow, much less pay the bills of yesterday. Or, the third world nations hike their pay to their people to the extent that they too may become major consumers, thus we too can hike the pay here also for the same reasons. There is a third alternative that the one worlders won't like and that is to declare the borders as being inviolate and putting tariffs back in place. I'll simply put it this way: they can't have it ALL ways! Option 1 means deflation, even though ther may be more dollars about. Option 2 means growth with a bit of inflation, if THEY can pull it off. Option 3 might mean salvation before the end. But I'm thinking that even 3 might be a bit late since so much has been transferred abroad. Personally, I'm thinking foxhole!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:52
aurophile f>(f): - tired: LOL!!!!! I'm thinking of hiring the Teamsters to manage my retirement fund. Or maybe Hillary. Isn't it weird that all the good movements are run by crooks? Or maybe not.........
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:51
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - WW - Progressives-- savers, inventors, producers. In that order.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:48
Jack Yosemitesam>(Yosemitesam): -
The platinum metals are supposedly in a squezee, due to Russia's inablity to make up the present requirements.
Gold is being held down -until recently and who really knows what else?- by a strong dollar, a stock bull market and a whole lot of negative press, probably payed for by those who are benefitting. As for the present state of their relationship with gold -IMHO beware. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:48
tired of the BS>(of the BS): - The teamsters are a fun loving bunch. Just asked the hundred or so casino owners in Las Vegas were they got there capital to invest.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:48
Ted @Panda>(@Panda): - Nite...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:47
WW @NE>(@NE): - Hey what can I say I am just a big Kennedy/Roosevelt/Gephardt Labor Union fan and Proud of my Progressive roots!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:45
Ted @confessional>(@confessional): - I ain't a gold bug....I'm a money bug....Please god,make me a filthy millionaire......
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:44
panda @zzzzzzzz(good night all)>(@zzzzzzzz(good night all)): - WW -- The Kennedy clan is almost broke because they squandered the oldmans loot. They haven't got a clue as to how you create wealth. They only know how to feel guilty about it and punish it. As for B. Streisand, well if you can't say...
As for the UPS union thing, isn't the real crux of the strike over control of the pension fund Does the union retain control or does UPS get to manage it? BTW, many of the UPS strikers are unhappy about the strike. It seems that everybody didn't get included in the vote. What a surprise. The rest of the stuff is B.S. ( Barbara S. ) - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:40
Ted @Overlook Hotel>(@Overlook Hotel): - HERE'S JOHNNY.....
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:39
WW @NE>(@NE): - Steve:: Most corps are downsizing b/c of the corporate welfare where the govt uses the US dollar to support third world economies so US companies can safely invest their to take advantage of the slave/child labor. This is why the panic over Mexico and MFN with China.
The whole right wing propaganda campaign to make people hate govt is at the very root of destroying individual rights and taking benefits like SS and Medicare away from those who have paid for it. Without the development of this cult the elitist's investment and financial picture would deteriorate. Starting with FDR up until Reagan the financial and living stds of Working Americans were improving. Reagan started the decline for most and the benefits for the relatively greedy few. The end of the Bull in financials will bring on a new PROGRESSIVE ERA!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:38
aurophile e>(e): - Eldorado: I too look at it from the view of the consumer since that's my primary profession at the moment. This is when the consumer normally takes back some of the controll from the producer. This is why the UPS strike is more than an isolated incident. Are we all to continue to be the prisoner of the banks and the lean and mean corporations? Not that I am out on the picket line mind you, but I am extremely interested in how it turns out. Will the middle class continue to take it on the chin or will they demand some equity as in 1945? This is crucial to all investment decisions for the next 20 years.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:35
Ted @UPS>(@UPS): - Ron Carey is a sleeze...The Teamsters are sleeze....A cheap political game to stay in power and the workers are THE PAWNS...as usual! No corruption in the teamsters...no sir...the workers best interests are always of utmost importance to the teamsters...hahaha..they've rippep em a lot worse than any management,let alone the management of union friendly UPS....Go Replaement workers!!! it's a big world out there and unforunately ya gotta COMPETE ( a dirty word to some ) ...The teamsters..
..hahaha....Where's RR ( and I don't mean RUBIN ) when we need em....Was anti-union ( how surprising ) before movin ta Cape Breton and after livin over FIVE years in one of the most unionized areas of Canada I can't say I've become any more impressed by unions...This is a test laboratory and the grades are in kids....Unions=F.....Management=A+.....go capitalism and down with government....and crooked cynical unions!.... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:33
DJ Filthy millionaire>(Filthy millionaire): - WW - Cool it! I'm trying my best to become one of these filthy millionaire elite.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:30
yosemitesam @iname.com>(@iname.com): - I recently did some research. Looking at the gold and platinum monthly charts I noticed that the two have always tracked each other fairly close. However, this year that has not happened. Gold has some catching up to do if that trend is going to continue to happen. I suppose its only a matter of time.
Any comments!!! - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:29
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Aurophile -- Oh, we'll get inflation for sure! Not that much of it will get down to the 'real people'; Those who the economy depends on for its sales. Can't be done. The people are basically tapped out. The 'inflation' will be seen more in the 'non-ability to buy'. One can call it inflation or deflation. Amounts to the same thing in the end, and the particular way one looks at it. I view it from the perspective of a consumer. Others view it from the perspective of the number of dollars in circulation. Funny thing is that unless those dollars are in the hands of the 'consumers', it equates to deflation for all practical purposes. Falling prices in the midst of lots of dollars! Amazing, ain't it. I don't mind having a rebuttal on this.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:28
DJ $10,000 in real coin>($10,000 in real coin): - Shek - I did invest $10k early last week - in RSA platinum stocks. If I hadn't done it then I would still do it on Monday ( though prices are higher ) .
Donald - How many oz. would it have taken to buy an '82 chevy in 1980 with gold at $800? Still, I get the point, and really am not arguing it long term. My only point was that there had been enough variation in gold value over the years that it wouldn't be a better correction factor for adjusting for inflation than those used in the chart I posted. I could be wrong. Do you have such a gold-adjusted DOW chart?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:24
KGB #121 VUN TVENTY VUN Mike Sheiler>(Mike Sheiler): -
Mike Sheiler; 21:32 Roozewelt Vield is bad place. Is Kapilatist Pigg Entriprize Zone to sell foreign goods to Amerikan Worker vit Kredit Kard. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:23
WW @NE>(@NE): - ELDO: Anyone who is a progressive and can see the imbalances growing between the wealthy few and the ever more insecure workers has to support the Teamsters. The Republican Party and its conservative allies are nothing more than front men/women and slavish apologists for the filthy millionaire elite ( not all, some millionaires like B. Streisand/Jay Rockefeller/The Kennedys et al are progressives ) . Go AFL-CIO/Sweeney and God Bless the Teamsters!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:20
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - WW: Have you ever been an employer? Do you know the government requirements that must be observed if you are an employer? Do you know why most large corporations are down-sizing? Do you know why most new jobs are low-paying service-sector jobs? Do you know why the stock market is soaring? Do you know why CEO's are compensated for profitability?
If you answer these questions, then I'll continue your discussion on giving power to unions. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:15
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - Ray: I have the same problems down south here in Southern Louisiana. Kitco is the slowest of all the sites I look at. Sometimes it hangs up at the top of the home page and won't go to the postings for a couple of minutes. I often tire of waiting and look at another site with no problems. So, I think the problem is limited to Barts server or serve location. I've often wondered if this problem depends on which direction you are coming into the server from or whether it happens to everybody. Bart if you are reading, please take no offense. This is the best chat line on the net. However, you might want to check this problem out if others are having similar delays.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:14
Ted @the doors>(@the doors): - Hi Scotty!..Emulate me...god forbid!...Agree with ya that there is little downside risk to LONG-term holdin of gold....like to set my own time limits and feel very confortable in ABX.....The Hang Seng will tank at least to start the night tomorrow...Right JIN?...Will Monday in NYC be black or will the dipsters be back....
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:12
WW @NE>(@NE): - Could the current currency problems ( Dollar in over supply and potential bear in US financials ) be a forerunner to a challenge to US as the Reserve Currency? Thoughts!! THAT WOULD BE INFLATIONARY!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:11
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- While I DO have a mind of 'pay the laborer his worth', I do also have to say two things about laborers. One ) They hired in there full knowing what they were getting! 2 ) The door swings both ways!. What more is there? In all that, I'm not saying a thing about whether or not they should be paid more, or that more of there people should be 'full time & permanent'. Only that they DO have the option of going elsewheres. So what's the beef? Hey, maybe they can all pool their resources and start some more competition!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:10
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - 6pak - old Turkish saying, when speaking the truth have one foot in the stirrup. Like incest and matricide, the naked truth is taboo for good reason. Anything nearing it strikes a nerve, the nearer the louder
protestation. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:04
aurophile d>(d): - D.A.: Clearly I believe in physical assets. And I have no doubt that there ARE some managed commodity firms which do a better job than the two year treasury note. But there are damned few of those which are readily available to the small and/or unconnected investor. Look at the ratings tables. In general if one believes in the future of commodities--pun unintended--one would do better with a CRB futures contract or option. Indexing for the commodity-enabled. Or better still, my 50% tbill, 50% gold portfolio. But there are so few inflationists left on the gold channels that I wonder you have a market at all. Isn't it a kick to live long enough to find all the goldbugs are deflationsts?!?!?!? The VERY idea..................
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:02
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - 6pak - Read as much as possible in areas that will enhance personal sovereignty, not only financially, but psychologically. Be discerning about what you read and what you choose to read.
There's usually something reposing on a waiting room chair at the dentist's office that should be picked up daintily between two fingers and deposited elsewhere's lest something unclean be imparted-- the morning newspaper, Newsweek, etc. Constantly feeling irked and irritated can be addicting in my opinion, much of mainstream press as a category
serves to feed that monkey. A day of news cold turkey is refreshing, a week's blackout like a new lease on life. Either Will Rogers or that
old radio comic - 'Ain't whatcha know what hurts, it's whatcha do know that ain't so.' I'm sure most everyone has experienced the reporting on
some issue or event with which one is intimately familiar and seen how
one at a distance from the matter would be far better off by not having
had one's head filled with such guff.
addicting in my opinion, - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:02
Ted @overlook hotel>(@overlook hotel): - Go UPS!...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:01
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Speed: excellent retorts to those that think that the Chinese are going to lay waste to our fleet. What your detractors don't realize ( or they believe what the press tells them ) is that the US Navy has more than one fleet. If your detractors define fleet as all US Navy ships afloat, then they are sadly misinformed. And I don't understand what the hang-up with the Exocet is. That's old news. The Navy has automatic guns that fire 20mm rounds ( tipped with depleted uranium ) that can zoom in and pretty much blow that stuff out of the water. ( !! ) Sorta the sea-going equivalent to the Patriot missile. Sheesh. For Spudmaster: 200 surface skimming targets is not problem. All you gotta do is go into the Jane's homepage and see for yourself. And they only report the stuff that's unclassified.
Oh, did I forget to mention that the US Air Force might have something to say about all of this? Has everyone forgotten the precision weaponry they have laying about? We would not loose a single capital ship or even a garbage scow, and here's why:
One small tactical data point: we would not have to deploy a single surface ship to handle the Chinese. A couple attack nuclear-powered submarines would do the job quite nicely. ( Not to be confused with the nuclear powered submarines that carry SLBMs ( submarine launched ballistic missiles ) . Attack subs attack surface ships. The missile carrying subs are a different class of sub, and are called boomers -- for good reason. ) Afterwards, we would bring in a carrier ( or two ) to perhaps perform an airshow for those Chinese sailors getting ready to eaten by the sharks. SemperFi to you, too!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 23:00
WW @NE>(@NE): - GO TEAMSTERS!! Their fight is the fight of all working people who have been relegated to no benefit low paying jobs while the FAT CAT CEOs pay themselves handsomely and make big bucks from stock options by destroying the lives ( economically ) of the working people to benefit the almighty bottom line. UNIONS UBER ALLES!! NEWT/TRENT and their conservative anti working people clique be damned!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:59
6pak Mike Sheller @ 21:30>(Mike Sheller @ 21:30): - You make note of Passion for truth itself
Gold is the truth, as I accept it, in economic terms.
Yet, paper currency is an accepted truth as per, institutions of commerce
and the majority, of each others, countries, citizens.
So, the rough translation of the muslim expression:
If you have an interest ( re: gold - paper ) you will not find the truth
Likely, a reference to a section of the Muslim Koran; like a quote from
the Bible RE: making many books there is no end; and much study is
a weariness of the flesh.
Complex and deep, to be sure, lighten up and go for the journey, eh! : ) : ) - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:59
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - George Cole: what is your read on mutual funds for the short, medium and long terms ( long term being defined as the turn of the century )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:58
Scotty scotty@codenet.com>(scotty@codenet.com): - Hi everyone!! I wish I could post more, but I try to get it all read. Alas, I end up skipping some days as the volume is just too much to keep up with. I think I need to emulate Ted to keep up with things here!
Anyway, I was watching one of those Treasure Hunting shows on cable. Usually it's the boring story of the usual undersea exploration or the expedition in search of some Mayan loot. This one was different: it focused on a hoard of Roman coins found on a British farm by the farmer using a metal detector. By the time the archeologists and all the rest were through, they found something like 15,000 items including coins, bracelets, spoons, etc. But they focused on all the gold coins ( around 300 ) found - and the good state of preservation they were in ( oh, duh! ) . And they speculated that these particular coins were used for large transactions such as buying/selling property or livestock.
But it shows what us gold bugs have been saying all along: gold has a long history of commerce and value. Although I don't agree with the dooms-day'ers posting here, I do agree that things have a very strong potential of heading straight into the toilet in the near future.
There's a time and place for everything; and all things in moderation. I'm buying gold in moderation! As George Cole ( et al ) have posted, there is little downside risk at long term gold investing these days.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Ray, Panda --- WWW = World Wide Wait. Not that I have particularly been experiencing those particular problems, but I probably wasn't posting at that time. The problem does show up from time to time though, but not too often. I generally have a bigger problem with quote services than I do here. NOT nice!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:55
Jack The probability?>(The probability?): -
Goldfinger: ( 11:46 ) Can't disagree with you on where the mass of the wealth is held.
Big money normally starts a market run, and this one is a humdinger.
The result after 1982 has been a steady increase in market investments by the general public; and reaching its heights in the 1990's, with IRA's and self directed 401-k's; not to mention foreign investors who have added to the fire.
When these paper profits finally burn, I wonder who will be want to drive up the price of real estate. A few may get it for pennies on the dollar; that is if they have the means and really want it?
I realize that this talk is that of a deflationist.
In a runaway inflation; gold will probably make a bigger run in an inflation, but then fall to a more normal levels relative to the inflation after the governments intervene.
I imagine gold would see heavy investor demand in an inflation, but it should have a better overall purchasing power in a deflation. My best quess. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:40
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - panda- I do not think the problems I mentioned are mine. I have had a technician over to check, Kitco is the only URL that is slow.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:38
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - 6pak -- Your postings lend credence to the very real possibility of war in order to re-inflate the currency system. Wouldn't hurt in the 'jack boot' scenario either I might add! Thanks for the great posts!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:32
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Shek: If you have $1,000, $10,000, $100,000, $1,000,000, or $10,000,000, my advice is the same: Put all of your assets into gold and silver coins -- money that is external to our financial system. Weight silver heavier than gold -- say 70% silver coins, 30% gold coins.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:30
panda @Slownet>(@Slownet): - Ray -- Sometimes I just can't make up my mind as to who is slowing whom down! Is it the server at Barts' site? Some intermediary in the Internet? Could it be my ISP?
A few weeks ago, I was having a devil of a time trying to get to the EBN site. Others at this site had no problems with accessing EBN. I E-Mailed my ISP, and they reported back that they 'checked out' the URL and found it a little slow in loading, but there were no problems! As if by magic, I no longer have problems with the EBN site. Go figure!
So if anyone becomes delusional, and thinks that the Internet represents, 'freedom from government'. Be forewarned, in the best of times it is becoming a dicey proposition, and don't think that the 'plug' can't be pulled either! ( It becomes easier to explain as the system becomes more OVERLOADED than it is now. Just think, when all of those grade school kids come on-line, to learn, courtesy of BC and the extra tax on your phone bill. ) - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:28
Front Shek; Earl; George: Mike>(Shek; Earl; George: Mike): -
Shek:
Come Monday morning. I'd short the S&P using spiders's.
They don't need an uptick to get in and I would think the S&P is in the mood to drop. If not that sure of the drop, I'd put it into Gold Mutual funds as I've always considered myself like Jimmy Rogers, A LOUSY TRADER but a good spotter of trends. Of course, if it was my 10K and I had it to invest, I'd buy my pontoon boat instead of waiting till next summer. That way I could get in the fishing ahead of the hoard that will be using the worms in the future as proposed by Paul at 21:40. If he's correct, then there will be no fish left when everyone goes fishin' at the same time, especially with worms as bait!
Always thinking ahead .... Makes the present go by quicker!
Earl:
Ya you're right! My mistake. I even went to my big book because I wasn't sure either! Maybe we've got the same big book haha!
George:
OK, George, in order to not jinx the site and the Gold run, we must now ask you to send the information required in Mike's 19:03. If all is appropriate for coronation, then we will move with all haste so as not to let the Dow have time to go back above 8300 and screw up the investiture ( :- ) )
MIKE:
Thanks so much for the freebie. George will remember you in his will! Please suggest an appropriate date and time and we will ready all just before the DOW rises again above 8300 ( Don't tell George OK! He's still only 99% sure! Must use IVORY soap or something! ( :- ) ) .
TTFN - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:27
Ted @The Shining>(@The Shining): - Panda: good to know I ain't alone cause it's gettin spookie out there.
....BBL... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:17
panda @Very interesting!>(@Very interesting!): - George S. Cole and all -- I can't remember all of the folks who brought up the labor issue, but I did have an interesting conversation with a guy who works part time in a Home Depot. It seems he also works for the Post Office, full time. I was looking at some tools when he came over and we started talking. One thing lead to another, and the UPS strike came up. We got in to an interesting discussion about the U.S. Post Office and the unions there. I don't know why, but when he mentioned that one million people ( give or take ) work for the Post Office, I was surprised. This is but one branch of the government. What was really interesting, is the story he told me about one of the union stewards there. No surprise, but he ( the steward ) was telling all of the USPS people not to cross the picket lines at the UPS locations. No real surprise there, although whatever happend to, Neither rain, nor gloom of night...., but what was interesting was that the steward was calling for 'support' of the UPS strikers. To paraphrase the third hand statement, We are all brothers in this thing and you should go and picket with your brothers to show solidarity. This guy couldn't believe his shop steward was talking like this. He said the steward went on to say how any wage increase for the UPS people meant a stronger bargining position for them. It was along conversation, and I am abreviating here, but I think you get the gist of this issue... and it's implications...
Gold, platinum, or silver, anybody? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:11
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Goldfinger -- While scrolling through todays postings, I came across your 14:23 post. I must ask, What assets do you claim that the US has to cover 'its' liabilities? They wouldn't be mine perhaps, would they?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 22:09
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - panda- I also have had trouble and it takes forever to load, sooo ssslllooowwww. Also think that was the reason for so few postings
after the positive action in our markets last week.
James Flannagan's Saturday FAX flash calls for a possible upward bias in the precious metals now through September with a final liquidaation into 60 year low on October 24.
Tally Ho - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:58
panda @>(@): - TED -- I've been having some problems posting at Kitco recently, so you're not alone! I tried for ten minutes this morning to get one more post in. I finally gave up in disgust! High Tech? Increased productivity? ? ? ? ?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:48
masseuse @ masseuse-ville>(@ masseuse-ville): - Shek, why don't you just give me the $10,00.00, and I'll give you a really great massage ?!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:46
newbie to gold>(to gold): - Is there an objective reason for one to prefer Gold Maple LEafs to lets say Krugerrands?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:44
Ted @commercial break>(@commercial break): - Hi Mike!...The mall?...We got em here too....Movie kinda reminds me of my winters......BBL...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:44
Smithy Gold data. . . >(Gold data. . . ): -
George Cole ( or anyone else )
I would very much like to lay my hands at the end of each day on daily indices and key precious metals prices all on one page for that day - e g. London fixes ( Au & Ag ) , NY cash and actve month settlements, and gold share indices: XAU, HUI, Jo'berg, Australia, FT Gold Mines index, and the top ten world gold stocks. Currently I can collect these by assiduously searching different sites but it is a drag. Does anyone know of such 'one stop shopping' or should we suggest a page like this to Bart..? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:40
Paul loaded to the gills>(loaded to the gills): - Shek after much reseach I have taken someones advice and propose you do the same.
Namely, i am loaded to the gills with worm futures! Yes worm futures...I may be a little
early but after the market crashes and then gold...people will be going fishing for
quite a while...and i will be there to captialize....get in now Shek before its too late.IMHO - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:39
goldbug golfevr@pacbell.net>(golfevr@pacbell.net): - Shek, if you have to commit $10K on Monday, 8/11, and high-risk/high-reward trading/speculation in options doesn't scare you too bad, here is an option 'portfolio mix', you might consider:
a ) 20% in Gold calls, such as the Dec. 360's, trading Fri. @ $130/$150;
b ) 20% in Silver calls such as the Mar $5.50 strike, @ $.07 ( cents ) Fri.;
c ) 20% in Dec. calls, of Sw Franc, &/or D-Mark, &/or J-Yen;
d ) 10% in NEM/$45's, &/or ASA/$35 calls, exp. at yr.'s end, or so;
e ) 10% in a 3mo. call in Cocoa;
f ) 10% in a 3 mo. call in Sugar;
g ) 10% in an OEX 100 call, exp. in at least 3 mos.; or save that last 10%
for your next trip Vegas. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:34
Eldorado @@the scene>(@@the scene): - Shek -- Hope you are a day trader! Else WaiT! Some serious volatility happening at this time. Potential trend changes beginning, but it won't necessarily be pleasant for many. Trend changes mean a lot of upside and downside as the markets adjust. I would simply say that what ever it is that you are looking to buy, try to identify a support level to put a purchase price in at. The corollary to this is to sell at breakage of those same support areas! No guarantees given. I will say that the paper will more than likely take a bounce up shortly. Perhaps even sometime Monday. Just beware and aware. I do believe that the papers won't go down without a fight! But when they do, it'll be as in the toilet! FLUSH!!! The metals will go in the opposite direction and WILL BE MEANINGFUL! There won't be ANY 'late' comers coming aboard! This is not meant to say that gold and silver do not have more down side potential to them. They certainly do! BUT, most certainly, pay attention to the 'details'!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:32
Mike Sheller @the Cape Crusader>(@the Cape Crusader): - TED: The Shining? Isn't that about a pile of Maple leafs beside the fireplace? By the way, we never made it to Montauk today. Wound up at the Roosevelt Field Mall. Go figure.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:30
Mike Sheller 6pak's case>(6pak's case): - 6PAK: Very deep 19:43. I would only say, re the last observation you made, that one MUST have a passion for something to really find the truth. Perhaps that must BE a passion for truth itself.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:28
Ted @The Shining>(@The Shining): - Watchin a classic....
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:27
Auric @Home>(@Home): -
Shek: It would depend on the 10K. If it were pension money, senior and producing junior gold mining companies. Gambling money, probably some gold calls like Dec 360's, and LEAPs on Newmont. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:26
Mike Sheller Shek's Shekels>(Shek's Shekels): - SHEK: $4000 in 1oz gold maple leafs, $1000 in 1oz silver maple leafs, $5000 in Echo Bay Mines ( ECO ) , $2000 in Sunshine Mining ( SSC ) . Now what about Tuesday?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:11
Shek home>(home): - George S. Cole, Puetz, D.A., Front, Donald, and all goldbugs.
I am interested in your opinions on how would you invest $10,000 on Monday ( 8-11-97 ) . Just a hypothetical exercise to see everyone's investment direction.
Thanks - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 21:01
RLM Aussie AU>(Aussie AU): - George Cole:
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-ind.html - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 20:58
C.V. Compton Shaw cvshaw@prpdigy.net>(cvshaw@prpdigy.net): - The long term trend of the XAU is now bullish while the short term trend for the XAU is extremely bullish. The Monthly CCI has now crossed upward to a point that the shorts will begin covering and going long. The moving averages are extremely bullish short term.The XAU is now at a resistance level while at the same time being at the top of it's Bollinger band; however, despite the same, other evidence, as listed above, indicates that we will have a strong upward move in the short term. The stock market still appears to be in an uptrend both short and long term, as of the moment; however, of course, that can change too.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 20:56
Who Cares? Perfect Portfolio >(Perfect Portfolio ): -
Aurophile - I don't find it suprising in the least that both
you and Donald have similar portfolios. You just have to
adjust your frame of reference from an axis of
inflation {----------------------------} deflation
to an axis of
status quo {--------------------------} non status quo.
I reached many of Donald's conclusions in 1992, but I didn't
act on them until 94. I buy the relative value idea, I
believe that all investments will lose relative value, but
gold is likely to lose the least. ; )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 20:41
George Cole OZ>(OZ): - Does anyone know if there is an Aussie gold stock index available on the web?
Thanks mates! - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 20:26
Dammfyno Missed it>(Missed it): - If someone has the URL for the Illuminati Protocol would you please post
it for me. Couldn't seem to find it. Thx - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 20:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Bank of Japan receives new powers for dealing with failing financial institutions..
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/index.html - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:53
D.A. DAronstein@worldnet.att.net>(DAronstein@worldnet.att.net): - Thor:
Managed futures accounts do tend to be uncorrelated from the stock and bond markets and there are successful long term managers. The company that I work for has one of the longest running successful track records of any firm in the business. The oldest Limited Partnership is now almost 15 years old and has had compound annual returns of around 20% per annum to the investor. If you drop me an e-mail I can have someone get in touch with you.
BTW: You must be a qualified investor in order to participate in the funds. I don't know the exact numbers offhand but believe that your net worth must be around $1MM or an annual income of somewhere around .25MM.
Aurophile:
How are we ever going to get any more assets under management if good folks like yourself cast such doubt upon our 'industry'? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:43
6pak What Can you do? @ Canada>(What Can you do? @ Canada): - How does one be an individual who can think independently, while
immersed in a sea of overt media propaganda, educational disinformation ?
Read as much as possible in areas that will enhance personal sovereignty,
not only financially, but psychologically. Be discerning about what you
read and what you chose to read.
If you have allowed yourself to become apathetic about the government and
those who wish to control elements of your life, you are a perfect
candidate for complete control.
To live in a free society one must participate in government, at all
levels. Become aware of what your city, county, state, province, and
federal governments have done to take away the freedoms guaranteed to
you by the Constitution. Few people are really aware of the rights they
are guaranteed in the Constitution.
Control, is to give you only disinformation to make judgements with, or
to keep you from thinking clearly, it is your *responsibility* to do
whatever possible to maintain your own individual consciousness.
Alcohol, and over-the-counter depressants and stimulants that are avail-
able are indeed mood or behaviour altering methods of distraction. There
are myriads of mood-altering prescription drugs such as valium, librium,
etc., that are easily obtained through a doctor. Add to this the
extensive use of illegal drugs such as cocaine, morphine and its
derivatives, plus LSD, mescaline and their derivatives, and you have a
large, if not total, segment of the population perpetually ingesting
some form of mood-altering substance.
*Modern Artificial Control*
Ritalin drug----Sit down..Shut up...Drug ( for children )
Be quite....Consume.....and Die
Business is Business *You do away with your passions*
A Muslim Expression..Roughly Translated....
If you have an interest,you will not find the truth
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:39
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Ted: That's OK to mention my name. I was the one predicting DJIA at 300. Ditto all of Donald's remarks about deflation. The rapidly accelerating deflationary forces will cause the Dow to crash to 300 -- maybe by the year 2000!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: I just did a quick calculation about car prices from my personal experience. In 1955 I bought a 1953 Chevy 2 Dr sedan for 28.5 ounces ( $1000 )
From today's paper I can get a Chevy Lumina LS '95 All Power, excellent condition, 67K ( highway miles ) asking $9500/BO call 860-276-9403. That is 29.23 ounces. ( my '53 Chevy was standard shift, no power anything ) - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:13
Byron @ Double or Nothing:>(@ Double or Nothing:): - Sorry about the double. Finger slipped! : (
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:12
Byron @Filling the Gap:>(@Filling the Gap:): - From July's Bull and Bear Financial Report: Adrian Day: John Templeton advises buying at the point of maximum pessimism. Baron de Rothschild advised to buy when blood is running in the streets. Many investors must feel these investing greats were describing junior gold stocks. Against the background of a solf gold market and, in many cases, unrealistic stock prices, the Bre-X fraud has taken a severe toll on the market. Gold funds are being hit with massive redemptions daily and have no choice but to liquidate. Individual investors, seeing former high flyers down, are dumping before they collapse more. Now, the summer, always a quiet period for buying in this sector, has arrive early and with a vengenance. It is not a pretty picture. .... If you prescribe to the contrarian's motto-buy when no one else is buying-you should see this as your labaratory market. Many good quality junior resource stocks, already down sharply, are bidless. Pessimism.... blood...yes,it's a time to step up to the plate and buy. As always, stick with the best and try to buy cheap. In one year, you'll be happy you brought todya ( the quote goes on... ) 7/97.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:11
Byron @Filling the Gap:>(@Filling the Gap:): - From July's Bull and Bear Financial Report: Adrian Day: John Templeton advises buying at the point of maximum pessimism. Baron de Rothschild advised to buy when blood is running in the streets. Many investors must feel these investing greats were describing junior gold stocks. Against the background of a solf gold market and, in many cases, unrealistic stock prices, the Bre-X fraud has taken a severe toll on the market. Gold funds are being hit with massive redemptions daily and have no choice but to liquidate. Individual investors, seeing former high flyers down, are dumping before they collapse more. Now, the summer, always a quiet period for buying in this sector, has arrive early and with a vengenance. It is not a pretty picture. .... If you prescribe to the contrarian's motto-buy when no one else is buying-you should see this as your labaratory market. Many good quality junior resource stocks, already down sharply, are bidless. Pessimism.... blood...yes,it's a time to step up to the plate and buy. As always, stick with the best and try to buy cheap. In one year, you'll be happy you brought todya ( the quote goes on... ) 7/97.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:05
Mike Sheller repeat after me...GET REAL, GET GOLD!>(repeat after me...GET REAL, GET GOLD!): - DONALD: ( 18:56 ) Blessed are you Donald, for flesh and blood hath not shown you this.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 19:03
Mike Sheller obproj@i-2000.com>(obproj@i-2000.com): - FRONT: I would be happy to try my best to analyze brother George's horoscope. If he would be so kind as to get me his date, time, & location of birth. My email address is above.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Substitute the word gold for Socrates or Jesus and the quote is still valid.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: I am sort of saying that. If you went into the store in 1932 with a St. Gaudens Twenty you could buy a real nice suit. If you went in with one in 1966 you could buy a pretty good suit. If you went in in 1977 you could buy a real nice suit. If you went in in 1980 you could buy two nice suits and a tie. Today with the same St. Gaudens twenty you can buy a real nice suit.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:53
Byron @ Promises,Promises:>(@ Promises,Promises:): - One last Nock quote for the day: ( Promise ) ...What was the best that the state could find to do with an actual Socrates and an acutal Jesus when it had them? Merely to poison the one and crucify the other, for no reason but that they were too intolerably embarrassing to be allowed to live any longer. - Memoirs, 274
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PILLBRAIN: Central Banks that sell their gold for paper weaken their currencies. Individuals who buy the gold they sell are the winners. The holder of the gold is the strong hand the seller is the weak hand
The problem is that this fact is not always immediately apparent to the market participants as we saw in the recent Australian announcement. The market fell on the news, not on the sale. Many players in the gold market are highly leveraged and can not sustain themselves through these adjustment periods. I would never use credit to buy gold, or stocks, or just about anything else for that matter. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:39
pillbrain @home>(@home): - Donald: Oops cap lock was on. My apologies.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:38
DJ Buying power stable>(Buying power stable): - Donald - With all respect, how can you say that gold buying power does not fluctuate. It remains stable. Are you saying that if I went to the store in 1977, I could buy the same amount of groceries with an ounce of gold as I could in 1980 when the price of gold was 5 times higher? I don't think so!! The amount of real goods you could buy with the dollar equivalent of an ounce of gold has varied widely. I'm quite sure that you would rather have the goods you could buy in 1980 with $800 than the amount you can buy today with $325. In 1980 I could buy an average car for 5 oz. of gold. Today it would take 50 oz. Is this stable buying power?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: Well said. The difference is that you will owe a capital gains tax on your non-gain. I will get a tax credit for my non-loss.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:32
pillbrain @home>(@home): - DONALD : CB'S ARE PART OF THE WHOLE. WHO MAKES UP THE WHOLE? THEY DON'T FREQUENT MY FAVORITE WATERINGHOLES. THE QUESTION REMAINS WILL THE SALE OF AU DURING A PERIOD OF EXAGGERATED CURRENCY AND MARKET FLUX LEND ADVANTAGE TO THE POWERS THAT BE?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:30
Schippi schippi@geocities.comFidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts>(schippi@geocities.comFidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors
FSAGX UP 12.5% in past 22 market days.
Time to scale UP? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:22
Tw @home>(@home): - Does it make sense to commit about three k a year to out of the money silver options with the belief that when the mkt forces asset themselves you will do well ie you will be there?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:13
aurophile d>(d): - Who Cares: Despite our real differences, I find it fascinating that Donald and I could both live with a basic portfolio consisting of Tbills and paid-for gold. If I am correct and inflation revs up, short term interest rates will increase along with the gold price. If Donald is correct and we have a credit crash, the same will occur. There will be differences in timing to be sure, depending upon which event happens, but for a set and forget portfolio you can't beat cash and gold no matter what happens. Maybe we should debate the weather and forget flation altogether...:- ) Or maybe you have the ideal handle at Kitco...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 18:12
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: The problem with that gold chart is the assumption that gold fluctuates. It does not. It is dollars that fluctuate. Seventy years of propoganda by the inflationists has done its damage on all of us. You must learn to think in terms of how many ounces does it cost now when pricing anything. It is extremely difficult when all your bills come in dollars to know where you are. That is EXACTLY why we were taken off of the gold standard. So that you would not be able to figure it out. Inflation is not a natural event. It is a deliberate policy, a non-legislated tax which is imposed because, were the tax to be subject to a legislative debate, it would fail.
As in all inflations the citizenry, and its ally, the market, adopts strategies that outfox the inflationary tax man. Working off the books, barter, underground transactions and even legitimate activities such as riskier and riskier investments that provide returns beyond the inflation rate are employed. Eventually, perhaps in the 1994 election, the government gives up. The result is not zero inflation. The result is outright deflation as the illegal and excessively risky investments, those that were dependent upon continued inflation, unwind in failure. Gold is likely to be one of those things that achieves a lower dollar price. The main point to remember is that gold buying power does not fluctuate. It remains stable. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:58
6pak War of 1914-19 @ Canada lest we forget>(War of 1914-19 @ Canada lest we forget): - The banks made such loans in the ususal way, by creating additional
deposits. Further increases came from the banks' continuing willingness
to finance the legitimate needs of trade. As prices began to rise, so
did the costs of doing business. The process was *circular*: by financing
the needs of trade in this way, the banks allowed businesses to compete
against one another for the limited supplies of labour and raw
materials, just as through financing the bond borrowers the banks allowed
the government to compete with private business.
In this process the money supply increased very rapidly indeed - from
$1108 million in 1914 to $1828 million in autumn 1918, and to $2091
million in 1920. Most of this supply was extra bank deposits, not extra
paper currency.
Even before the completion of nationalization in 1919, the railways
involved Ottawa in heavy financial burdens. For instance, in 1914 the
dominion had to lend the Canadian Northern $40 million so that
construction could be continued. However, the war itself involved very
much larger outlays.
The dominion found the money by borrowing not only in London but also
in Canada and New York, where dominion securities had not previously
been seen.
Up to 30 November 1918 the dominion spent $1,068,606,527 on the war.
Net debt increased by $971,429,661. Almost all of the war was financed
by borrowing. Some borrowing was informal, and there was informal lending
too. Although the London new-issue market was closed to Canada after the
loan of March 1915, the *imperial* government advanced hundreds of
millions of pounds to pay for the overseas costs of Canada's armies.
Similarly, Canada advanced hundreds of millions to Britain, and in the
*settlement* of the *accounts*, although there was some *perplexity*
as to the *rate* of exchange which should be used in the *calculations*,
no one doubted that so far as Britain was concerned, the Canadian
government had become a *net lender*
The government knew that it would have to plan for the return of service-
men into the civilian economy. Although Britain and other European states
had long provided *old-age pensions, unemployment benefit, and medical
insurance*, the government had no such plans for Canada.
The Liberal opposition said in 1919 that it wanted national health
insurance, but only in the 1960s did a Liberal government produce such a
plan.
There were plans to settle ex-soldiers on farms, though, as events
unfolded, it was not the best time to be setting up as a farmer.
The government, however, could not have *foreseen* the *slump* of 1920-2.
And, during that *slump*, life in the cities would be no easier, and no
more secure, than life on the land.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:41
Byron @ More Of The Same:>(@ More Of The Same:): - Ted: Does anyone know what those people are fighting about anymore
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:38
Who Cares? Donald / Aurophile / Point in Cycle>(Donald / Aurophile / Point in Cycle): -
I agree with Donald's assessment of our current point in the long-wave cycle. However, I do believe it is possible to keep the end of the cycle going if the real return on money continues to diminish, i.e. stock investors are willing to accept a 0.5% rate of return rather than the current 1.5% or so. : ) And bond holders are willing to accept, oh, say, 5% rather than 6.5%. : ) - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:33
Ted @Byron>(@Byron): - Evening Byron.....Sorry to hear you're having puter problems too but...
misery loves company....Thought I was singled out for past sins er somethin...Listening to the local news and it sounds like things are rapidly going downhill in the Middle East...Israeli planes went on another bombing mission in Lebanon....Retaliatory terrorist strikes next.
... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:24
Ted @MGraves>(@MGraves): - Hi Mainlander! Thought you'd vanished from the face of the earth...Today is Saturday and have been seein The Captain for the past hour or sooooo!....Rain + wind here...but,hey who cares...eh...Am lookin forward to the Screaming Eagles first home opener....Yes to the QMJL!...and to Joe Sakic!...Things heating up in the middle East...Go Gold!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:19
Byron @ Cogitations:>(@ Cogitations:): - Donald: As a follow-up on your suggestion last week here are a couple of Albert Jay Nock quotes sourced out from his writings in the early part of this century. 1. The simple truth is that our businessmen do not want a government that will let business alon. They want a government that they can use. - Letters, 105 .....2. The old proverb about politics making strange bedfellows is quite wrong; it makes the most natural bedfellows in the world. Crook lies down with crook in any bed that interest offers; swine snoozes with swine on the litter of any pen that interest opens..- Journal, 248...and last 3.It occurred to me then, how little important it is to destroy a government, in comparison with destroying the prestige of government. - Journal, 283 .... sorry for any typos on this text only computer.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:18
aurophile c>(c): - Larryn: The Monex corporate name has been around for a long time, but I have no knowledge of the program you mention. Based upon the sad experience of many gold investors in the last bull cycle, you would probably be better advised to purchase leveraged gold investments via gold stocks or futures or options vehicles rather than via off-exchange un-regulated sources, assuming you need leveraged gold at all.
With a gold option on Comex, for example, you are buying something which is backed by physical gold in a regulated warehouse. With a corporate leveraged gold product you don't know what you are buying, if anything. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 17:17
DJ Waves - and other natural phenomena>(Waves - and other natural phenomena): - aurophile - You give me way more credit than I deserve! I really am not qualified to post a prediction of the next move down. My DOW3500 was just an observation, based on the chart, that 3500 appears to be a good 1997 DOW level if one eyeballed a straight line through historical prices. The reason I posted this chart again is that there are a lot of pretty wild DOW predictions being thrown around, and I thinks it helps to give a historical perspective. Haven't learned Elliott Wave Theory, although I understand some of the basis for it and it seems reasonable.
Donald - I'm not sure how you could use gold as a correction factor over this long a period. As you are well aware, gold price wasn't set by the market for quite a long time, and when released, it oscillated wildly, now seeming to settle somewhere around cost plus a reasonable profit.
As a reminder, to those that don't have it handy, here is the historical gold price graph.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:59
aurophile b>(b): - Thor: Your portfolio is an ideal one for the future I envision. As short term rates rise your income will climb but your gold will more than overcompensate for the loss of purchasing power of your cash. ( You could also conservatively write out of the money options on your gold position for extra income. ) You might want to consider diversifying your cash into part US and Canadian dollars, part Swiss francs.
As to your other question,in my experience, managed futures accounts have a negative correlation with everything. They are almost always losers. If you wish to pursue this area, I would recommend buying a CRB futures contract and rolling it forward every 4 months for the next 20 years. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:49
aurophile a>(a): - Charles Dow: Cool Charlie. I didn't realize you studied with Heraklitos...:- ) ) ) )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - THOR: I like your portfolio but I do not agree that we are at a multi decade low in interest rates. For example in 1980 the inflation rate was at 14% and you could borrow at 13% ( without looking up the exact numbers ) they were paying you 1% to borrow the money. After your tax deduction it was even cheaper. Now we have a CPI inflation rate of 2% and you pay 7% or more ( depending on your credit rating etc ) that is a very high real, and deflationary, rate of 5%.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:42
Larryn larryn@ix.netcom.com>(larryn@ix.netcom.com): - Has anyone here dealt with Monex Gold Traders. They use leverage to invest in metals for you.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:27
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PILLBRAIN: When you say they do you mean the Central Banks?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:20
Thor managed futures portfolios>(managed futures portfolios): - Given the unprecidented level of the overall stock market & multi decade lows in interest rates, I believe that gold by default should form a part of most investor's portfolios. I am very bullish on gold and have 25% of my liquid investments in gold stocks. 25% is allocated to specific value stocks & S&P put warrants and the balance is in cash. Is there a better home for the 50% in cash? I have read that managed futures have a low to negative correlation to the stock market.
Does anyone have an opinion on managed futures portfolios for a growth orientated investor given the current investment environment? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:17
pillbrain @home( au 999 in 1999)>(@home( au 999 in 1999)): - July '97 give me the feeling that a coordinated strategy directed at global market and currency stabilization was afoot. As I remember they
didn't like Au in the mix. Can currency devaluations, market crises and
human nature ( fear ) overcome such schemes? Will they still
sell the metal as things go in the toilet. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:11
Charles Dow @1901>(@1901): - When Prices are up and the country is prosperous, it is always said that while preceeding booms have not lasted, there are circumstances connected with this one which makes it unlike its predecessors and gives assurance of permanency. The one fact pertaining to all conditions is that they will change.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:11
Byron @ Techkie Time:>(@ Techkie Time:): - For those interested: At the Yahoo quote site http://quote.yahoo.com one can see a short term breakout of the Toronto Gold and Silver Index on the 3 month chart and the 1 year chart. Its symbol is ^tgl Might also want to explore the Gold Option chart. The symbol is ^aux
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:07
Byron @ I Wonder:>(@ I Wonder:): - I noticed in the URL for the Illuminati Protocols there was imbebbed the word front!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 16:03
aurophile +>(+): - Donald: The disinflationary copings which you list are coming to an end. They were the response to the 1980's. That was the *last* war. We are now lifting off in economic growth, employment, and prices. That is the new war. The reason why stocks will falter and fall is rising interst rates and recrudescent inflation. That is also why gold and real estate will rise.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:57
aurophile =>(=): - DJ: Also since I believe that we are in the same place in the economic long waves as the US and Canada ( and Europe ) were in 1946,an approximatley 30% absolute decline or 40% of the previous rise ( as from 1946-49 ) would fit nicely with 6500 on the Dow.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:57
Ali @soongone>(@soongone): - Donald and aurophil;no argument with real estate or gold.I just debate if I could be burried in my backyard which I aready have title to or invest in a public plot where you pay once and stay there taxfree,or get dust to dust treatment and get strewn to the 4 winds of heaven ( also a once only admittance fee ) .In the meantime-IN GOLD I TRUST!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:54
Hamlet Tr@.de>(Tr@.de): - Hi, I am new to this mailience
Has anybody of you read the Illuminati Protocols ?. It seems to give a
good understanding why gold may be the only material value to remain
Go: www.neo-tech.com/illuminati/front.html
Hamlet - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: I did not realize we were that far apart on our economic outlooks. I feel that the worldwide credit cycle we are now completing must collapse due to the lack of future borrowing power. The use of credit requires that at some point in the future you pay back what you borrowed with a reduction in spending on consumption items. I feel we are at that point now. I don't see how it can be postponed. The soaring rate of personal bankruptcies is one of the signs. The election of 1994, where voters selected candidates who claimed fiscal responsibility is another. Attempts by corporations to downsize is a third. Attempts by the federal and state governments to balance budgets is a fourth. All those actions are deflationary.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:45
aurophile ->(-): - DJ: Since 3500 is at approximately the level of the previous 4th Elliott wave of similar degree, ~3500 would be an appropriate place to stop if this is indeed a cycle degree top. If 1994 to present is merely wave one of an extended larger degree fifth wave, i doubt we go much below 6500. There will be plenty of time to decide that issue. Or at least plenty of Dow points. A 28% decline to 6500 would be a typical bear market correction.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DJ: Those constant dollar charts use the government provided CPI figures as the basis for their adjustment. If you use those figure you are saying two things. That the government CPI numbers are honest and that they did a good job in collecting the data. I prefer to use the gold adjusted numbers because it removes the government and substitutes the market place. I recognize that it is not perfect but I don't know of a better way.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:31
DJ DOW chant>(DOW chant): - bw - This would be the crash scenario. However, unless we get an overshoot even larger than in 1930's, even the crash scenario would only take us down to DOW 1400. But 1400 in 2000 isn't very catchy.
BTW, one way to set a reasonable level for the DOW, is to draw a straight line up the middle of the channel, between the blue lines. This would say that DOW3500 would be a reasonable level today.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:30
Byron @ Kicked Out:>(@ Kicked Out:): - Ted: You mentioned earlier so problem with the computer. Last weekend and this weekend I experienced a problem here at the library where out of the blue I would be kick out of the Internet for no apparently reason. Last weekend I tried going back to that certain spot, posting where I was kicked out previously and sure enough I would get kick out again. .... Don't know if anyone is experiencing the same problem. Mystery?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:17
bw Re: DJ, dow chant>(Re: DJ, dow chant): - DJ: How about 1000 in 2000!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:13
bw Silver price levels:>(Silver price levels:): - Lots of thought here lately about silver at 4.25, 4.00, 3.75 and 3.50. Buy the physical now and think instead of silver at 5.00, 10.00, 15.00 and 25.00.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:12
me mine>(mine): - According to the kitco gold/silver spot graphs, these metals went verticle in the last 1/2 hour of trading on Friday. The asent stopped when the market closed. Monday?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:05
DJ DOW discussion>(DOW discussion): - goldfinger,et.al. - Most of you probably remember this sobering chart posted many months ago. The DOW has now hit the blue line, maybe a bit over, as in 1929. If panda is right and it is a grinding bear market, it will repeat the profile of the drop from the '60's top. Will blast thru goldfinger's 4500 in about year 2003 down to a low ( in 1997 dollars ) of around Dow 2000 around year 2013. ( How about a new chant 2013 in 2013 )
If we get a crash, then it will fall like it did from the '20's high. Gets it done in 2 years and oscillates wildly for the next 17 years.
In either case, if this channel is valid, DOW won't hit 15000 until the top of the next cycle, 30 years from now.
http://cpcug.org/user/invest/secular.gif
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 15:00
aurophile _>(_): - Donald:I see the economy continuing to go UP the tubes and most likely accelerating to over 6% GDP. A younger person than I ( =nearly everyone ) could consider leverage in real estate since the payback will be in increasingly worthless dollars.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:40
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GOLDFINGER: On balance, the individuals and corporations of the United States do not have enough assets to cover their liabilities. As the stock market declines that already poor balance sheet will deteriorate further.
The United States government and the individual state government are unlikely to dispose of their assets so their liabilities can only be met by the individual taxpayers. Perhaps the Postal Service or Amtrak or other things of that nature could be sold but only a fire sale prices. If a decision to sell were made it would be during a time of extreme hardship when few buyers were available with cash. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:40
mikeharry hereandthere>(hereandthere): - It is quite something to see the gold sector as the only Toronto sub index with a + sign. This has happened a couple of times recently, but I suspect more such days lay ahead......
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:36
6pak Financing the war effort @ Canada>(Financing the war effort @ Canada): - The government's principle was to treat war outlays as *extrordinary*
items, borrow for them, and raise taxes enough to cover the resulting
debt-service charges. In 1914-15, therefore, Sir Thomas decreed many
increases in customs and excise duties and in taxes on bank note
circulation, non-life insurance premiums, and the gross income of trust
and loan companies. As the dominion already had *full information* about
these matters, such new taxes had the additional advantage of requiring
*no new administrative apparatus*. In 1916, however, Ottawa had to move
into new fields, imposing a business war profits tax on profits taken
in 1915-17, inclusive. In 1917 the rates were raised. In addition, the
dominion introduced its *first income tax*.
This applied both to individuals and corporations. The rates were not
high. Corporations paid 4 per cent; individuals who earned less than
$2,000 - the great mass of the Canadian nation - were exempt; there were
further exemptions for married persons; for the unmarried, rates
progressed from 1 per cent on the first $2,000 to 8 per cent on an income
of $25,000. Not very much, it would seem. Nor were the revenues great,
even though rates were raised in 1918 and again in 1919.
Revenues from the new income taxes did not materialize until the fiscal
year 1919, because at that time, and indeed until the Second World War,
dominion income taxes were never deducted at source, but were paid only
after the year to which they applied. Thus in the fiscal year 1919, the
dominion's total revenues were $312.9 million, of which almost every
dollar came from customs, excise, the post office, and dominion lands;
only 3 per cent came from personal income tax, 0.4 per cent from the
corporations tax, and 11 per cent from the excess profits tax.
In the Second World War things would be very different. The idea was to
repeal such new taxes once the war had passed. But the income tax is
with us still.
Furthermore, these wartime tax changes are important because they mark
the dominion's entry into the field of direct taxation a field which
Ottawa has constitutional power to use but where the provinces had
previously *browsed* as they wished.
The provinces had been taxing corporations since the 1890's, and by 1907
there was some form of corporation tax, usually on capital value in
every province; British Columbia first taxed personal incomes in 1876,
and Prince Edward Island in 1894, although other provinces did not do so
until the 1930's. The dominion had also left the provinces the field of
succession duties, another tax where collection costs were low and which
the provinces had been collecting since the 1890's. The dominion did not
levy succession duties until the Second World War.
Sir Thomas White was proud that he had not*financed the War through
inflation* by which he meant that he had not *printed money to pay the
government's bills*. Nevertheless, during the war, Canadian price levels
rose quite dramatically. The general wholesale price index, whose base
is 100 for 1935-9, rose from 85.4 in 1914 to 166 in 1918, and then went
on up to 203.2 in 1920, falling back to 126.8 in 1922.
The Department of Labour's family budget index went from 100 in 1913 to
98.7 in 1915, then rose to 147.2 in 1918 and to 184.7 in 1920. These
price increases, whose causes were not well understood, provided much of
the fuel for two ( 2 ) successive *fires*; the attack on corporate
profiteering and the *wave* of labour unrest which swept the entire
dominion in 1917-20.
Why were prices rising The causes were partly domestic and partly
international, but neither cause had anything much to do with
profiteering Not were they exclusively Canadian. From the outbreak of
war 1914 until 1920 the entire Western world experienced an *inflation*
the like of which had last been seen during the Napoleonic Wars.
The rate varied among the various countries. There was more *inflation*
in France than in Britain, and more in Britain than in the United States.
But the phenomenon was universal, and so was the basic cause: the
pressure of war demand on economies whose productive possibilities were
declining, as in France and Russia, or not growing proportionately, as in
Britain and the United States.
In principle, by following a really stringent policy of high taxation and
tight money, Canada could have financed her war effort without importing
this inflation. The value of the Canadian dollar, which was freed from
its link with *GOLD* in 1914, would then have floated up, offsetting the
effect of *inflation* abroad. In practice, of course, nobody in Ottawa
ever thought of such thing.
The dominion had long been accustomed to finance *extraordinary* outlays,
such as railway building, by loans. Surly the war was an *extraordinary*
event Surly it was natural to finance the war by borrowing
Although some provinces and many municipalities and corporations were
accustomed to borrow within Canada before 1914, the dominion had not
floated a domestic bond issue for many years, and its informal or
automatic borrowings from the public through the post-office savings
system had for some years been falling. But because the London market,
on which the Canadian government had chiefly depended in peacetime, was
no longer readily available, Ottawa was obligated to explore the
resources of the domestic market.
White was surprised to find how much he could raise, and how easily.
The great chartered banks were natural channel through which the public
could subscribe. As Sir Thomas later explained, nothing could be easier
than to float a new dominion bond issue. One telephone call to the
Canadian Bankers Association sufficed.
If the banks found they were paying out too many notes they could borrow
some, cheaply, from the government; if they wanted to preserve some sort
of window-dressing, maintaining some target ratio between their deposit
liabilities and their holding of *GOLD* and dominion notes, they could
borrow new notes for that purpose too.
In either case, the dominion government would be *happy* to print some. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:36
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Donald: As with all matters of information the first question to be asked is what is the source. After that is clear then the evaluation of it can begin. If China was a military threat to the US the Taiwanese would all be wearing Mao jackets and making keychains and pirated copies of Windows now.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - FUNDY: I watched that Chinese military discussion yesterday but did not enter it because I don't know much about military matters. It seems to me it all depends on whether a future war is nuclear or conventional. If it is nuclear Nantucket Island could win it if they started first.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:23
goldfinger re:Donald>(re:Donald): - The United States has plenty of assets to cover liabilities. If I had more time I would go into more detail, but don't ever sell America short in the long run because you will have your head handed to you, unless you die first. This is still the GREATEST COUNTRY ON EARTH. I remain.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:22
Byron @ Xau and XAU/Gold Ratio:>(@ Xau and XAU/Gold Ratio:): - Donald: Y.Auger has updated his charts as of Friday. Looks like he made some small change in the ratio charts. Ratio chart looks good for gold stocks. Indication that it wants to close that gap on the upside.
Y.Auger has commentary which I am not in agreement with. He does Elliot Wave analysis. But I am mostly interest in his chart and not necessarily the analysis part. http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:19
goldfinger re:donald>(re:donald): -
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: I have no objection to paid for real estate. I would not use leverage because it works against you in a deflation. I must be confused about where you see the economy going? I feel it is going down the tubes. What is your opinion?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:17
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Donald: If I'm in a parade everybody else must be lost. Couldn't buy much in 1932 but did buy stocks in 1981 and except for a false start in 1996 my gold buying days are still a few weeks ahead. Wonder if the Chinese Generals know where the gold in the pot at the end of the rainbow is. Even the sky falling could be a gold boom.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:13
aurophile )>()): - Donald: Although we are nearly opposite on where we see the economy going, we are intellectual twins on the matter of where to have ones assets for the foreseeable future: buy gold and sell stocks. In my own case I would add on real estate to the gold holdings to take advantage of general price inflation ahead. ( Actually the great cycle of wealth in America is from stocks to real estate and back again over rather long periods, even though gold is cleaner and easier to care for than real estate. )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 14:11
Front Earl ; Mike Sheller ; All>(Earl ; Mike Sheller ; All): -
Earl:
outside of brothels in benighted regions.
Jeez Earl, a simple yes or no would have surfeited ya' know! ( :- ) )
OK, so you want George to have it but first we have to purify it through a bath of acid. With that precaution in mind, perhaps we should have Mr. Sheller do an astrological sign/time search to find the best date/time to anoint George into his Kingly role. How about it Mike? The group needs a freebie. We, of course, wouldn't want to start celebrating too early so your assistance re the investiture would be invaluable. Of course, anyone who knows about the brothels in benighted regions can't be all bad eh! My guess is that his conscience forbids his assention to royalty only because he is such a humble soul. But then I read about brothels and wonder how humble one must be to enter?
As I said Earl, a yes or no would have surfeited ! ( :- ) )
P.S. Mike if you could, put a rush on it please! George could be all wet on this call, so we're under a bit of a time rush, if you get my drift! Thanks.
TTFN ( :- ) )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:52
Donald @Home>(@Home): - FUNDY: I didn't mean to rain on your parade, I am only reading a number from a chart. It says you should of bought stocks in 1932, sold them in 1966 and bought gold which you held until 1980. Then you were back in stocks until now. The chart says sell stocks now, buy gold again and wait 15 years or so and you will be very happy you did. The stock parade is passing, it's starting to rain, gold is your umbrella.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:48
George Cole Peter Monk>(Peter Monk): - Pillbrain: Wonder if Peter Monk's talk about sub $300 gold gold was bait designed to lure the shorts into a killing zone.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:41
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GOLDFINGER: I am 63, feeling pretty good, and will easily see Dow 4000 in today numbers in my lifetime. There is nothing but air below the Dow. America has no net worth. This is a credit created Dow. I suppose it could go higher from here but the downside damage will be all the greater in that case. An ordinary run of the mill bear market is 30%. That gets you back to 5810. No way will anyone get off that easy.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:40
Barb-ette @barbadoe ranch>(@barbadoe ranch): - re: John N ( Retiarivs ) :
A neighbor who stopped by last evening called today to verify sighting animated fuzzy things on our journey to Margaritaville. We may get Tom Brokaw over here one Friday night to verify beyond a reasonable doubt as to what's going on. Go gold! - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:33
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Donald: Your 1966 figure constitutes raining on the parade around here. The DOW isn't at an alltime unsustainable high? Next we will be hearing again that the 850 gold of 1980 is only worth 3-2-5 and 850's worth of Dow is now worth almost 3300. Of course 850 was a high and such a comparison is unfair. Next time anyone talks to a Chinese General ask him if they have figured out where the sky will land when it falls.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:32
goldfinger to all postings/ Donald/Cole>(to all postings/ Donald/Cole): - I hear ya. Makes sense. It's not over till the fat lady sings. It is gonna be real interesting to see how the pieces fall into place. Could be alot different than any of us think. 10 years from now we could be living like the Jetson's or be eating out of garbage bins. Let's hope the later does not come true.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:29
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley): - Hey Ted... Watch out for that Screech !!! Blindness will affect your postings. I wonder if all the lemmings on Wall & Bay street are lining
up to jump ship yet? If it wasn't for the gold & pm index on the TSE , it would have been alot worse yesterday. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:28
pillbrain @home>(@home): - Was it ABX's CEO who said that European CB selling would drive the AU price down for the upcoming 6-9 months? Will CBs' continue plans in light of changing bond and stock conditions? Does this have any play
in current US stock market top? If world stock markets domino with US,
is gold THE HAVEN or a hindrance to coordinated CB efforts? Thank you.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BW, GOLDFINGER: I hope that you have saved the Dow/Gold ratio chart of bb fisher posted on 7/27/97 5:34 and 5:37 AM. ( Two charts pieced together to make one ) If you look at the Dow in that context you will get a better view of where we are going with the Dow in terms of gold. In 1980 the real Dow dropped below real 1932 Dow. The numbers you are using in your discussion are useless unless you adjust them to reality. At Dow 8300 or so of the other day you are still not back to the 1966 all time high in real dollars.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:18
George Cole downside targets>(downside targets): - GOLDFINGER: I can see the Dow trading down to the 5000 area over the next 12-18 months, but agree that a drop to 2000 is very unlikely.
Panda: Whether or not we crash, the market will be considerably lower in October than it is now. And gold will be considerably higher -- probably in the $350-375 range. Agree that a long grinding bear is more likely than a SUDDEN crash. But long grinding bears typically END with crash type action as the last of the bulls throw in the towel. Sort of like gold in early July.
7500 is now the crucial level in the market. A drop below that point ( decline of over 10% ) will get us down to 7000 or less very quickly. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:11
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - UO=UP in Cape Bretonese....
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 13:10
Ted @Goldfinger>(@Goldfinger): - I won't mention any names but I've seen Dow 300 or so talked about here..
I'd really back a FLEET of trucks uo for that one!...BBL...important matters of state call.... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 12:48
goldfinger re:BW>(re:BW): - I personally sincerely doubt and positively rule out that senerio. However, it could happen. I'm not that pessimistic. You might see 4500, but that would be about it. 15000 would be here sooner than 4500 in my opinion.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 12:44
mike t. @not of ear biting fame>(@not of ear biting fame): - As of yesterday, 1,896,600 rubles ( plus markup ) will now buy 1oz. of gold. Legal in Russia again now after maybe 70-80 years? What a bargain! The U.S. is on a similar slippery slope. Gold coin is the only insurance policy I've owned that retains worth 1 yr. from the time of purchase. It may be worth more or less, but unlikely it will go to zero every year as does my homeowner's, auto, etc. Patience until fruition is a virtue seldom denied. ( Is that an old saying or did I just invent it? )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 12:31
bw Re: Goldfinger, dow 4000>(Re: Goldfinger, dow 4000): - Goldfinger: You may be correct, however the dow chart I have in front of me shows 3000-4000 as being the first good long term support. And the funny thing about this advance is that statement has been true for several years now.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 12:11
bw Microsoft and Intel:>(Microsoft and Intel:): - These two giants alone have been powering much of current mania for stocks. Thirty percent per year earnings gains are projected for years to come in their stock prices. What could possibly go wrong? Well how about just so simple a thing as a stiff recession. Six months into the recession thousands of corporations discover their IT departments far from being profit centers, are in actuality incurring massive losses. But information is a product the chief says. Yes and no say the accountants right now we are not selling product and we are sure as heck not selling information. Cut the bastards says the chief. Hundreds of thousands of system people and programmers et al find themselves on the street. Also on the street, millions of powerful business type pc computers complete with all the latest software. The price since there is no demand at all, about 1/4 that of your local pc dealer. The production of new pcs is cut to the bone or less. Meanwhile the public, the ones who are not buying the cheap newly liberated bussiness computers, decide their old pc and software will have to do at least until the economy improves. New personal computers and new software for personal computers suddenly becomes something no one needs or wants.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 12:10
goldfinger he who has the gold makes the rules>(he who has the gold makes the rules): - Somebody mentioned 2000 on the Dow. We will never see 4000 on the Dow in our lifetime again. If the opportunity every presented it self 5000 would be a buy of a lifetime and I would back up the truck and load up. With the exception of a nuclear holocaust. Then you can kiss you and all your worldly possesions goodbye. You know, some inflation is good for the stock market long term. Without it, evaluations for everything from soup to nuts would fall and investing would not exist. Cycles must evolve for all assets classes, otherwise the system would collapse with no survivors.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:54
Ted @DJ>(@DJ): - DJ ( 11:29 ) Damn right I'm interested!...people always did say I'm a bit SPACEY....Tort:keep the crumbs off the keyboard....please!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:49
goldfinger JACK>(JACK): - Your thinking is sensible, but markets are not. When the real estate market moves and a bull market takes hold you will not know till it happens.One thing you missed is 90 % of the wealth in this country is controlled by the wealthy not the poor and they control the markets. Who do you think controls the stock market? The middle class and the poor. I think not. Did everyone know stocks were going to do what they have done in the face of recession and no money around a several years ago. Where did the money come from, not the middle class or poor. They had no jobs and their home values dropped out of bed. No one here thought stocks would climb this far, say 5 years ago. Your friends would have thought you were crazy. Trillons of dollars are in equities right now and world wide the number is staggering. The money will find a home in hard assets, if not then the world goes completly to hell in a hand basket. Hard assets have been left behind and they too will rise up out of all the so called problems we face no matter what. No matter how rational you are markets are not. Every dog has it's day.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:49
bw Re: George Cole, stock market crash>(Re: George Cole, stock market crash): - George: Of course you are correct it could go either way. However I strongly feel there must be a crash. If the fed gets involved ( as I feel they will ) it could be a controlled crash with a chart that looks much that of 1929-1932, with gut wrenching plunges followed by brief but powerful counter-trend panic short covering. In fact this will be a traders dream.
The reason I feel a crash is all but preordained is the widespread new era thinking ( more of a faith really ) which seems to be found everywhere today. I follow the thinking that all great manias ( and this may be the biggest of all times ) are really a variant of mass hypnosis. As long as the feeling lasts the market goes up. But at some point the masses wake up and find out in the cold light of reason, that ie fair value is somewhere around 2000 on the dow. Thus we either go up at a rapid rate or plunge with nothing in between. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:48
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com): - Savage - Dec Gold will find resistance between 334-335, if long I would take profits here and wait to see if the market can close above 336. If it can close above 336 the door opens to 360 basis Dec. XAU may stall right here for a few days, may even back up a few hundred points but should then rally to 110 - 112. ABX has held its long term support line and looks like its still going to 28-29.
Sept S&P with the big sell off yesterday the S&P did no more than drop back to the support line drawn off the Dec 96 highs. This area had been resistance has now become suport. I would suspect a rally from this area into option exp.. A close under 925 would target 890. I'm still long ABX, XAU calls, bought Dec Gold at 327 stopped at 325, re-entered at 323. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:29
DJ Ditto>(Ditto): - Panda - Your 10:21 also resonated with me. You have captured in words some things that have been rattling around in my mind lately.
Ted - You know hammers? I understand the MIR is taking resumes from carpenters. Apparently they need to renovate. Interested?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:28
bw Re: Donald, 20:36>(Re: Donald, 20:36): - Donald: A bank is a place that receives money, not a place to save money. This one sentence says worlds. Now if we substitute the words financial system for the word bank, I believe we have a one sentence defination of the greatest con game in the history of the world.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:22
Ted @Tort>(@Tort): - Tort: Glad to hear you got another bread maker but watch out fer taco belt...It's raining here ( as you can tell from Satellite image ) and I'll be gettin somethin off yer way in a while...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:18
Ted @Novice+Liz>(@Novice+Liz): - Welcome back sailors!...Will be gettin back at ya and glad ta hear you had a good trip!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:08
Ted @Panda>(@Panda): - Mornin Panda! ( 10:21 post ) A very interesting read and right on the money!
...I don't know if it's my computer but twice when I tried to access the rest of your 10:37 post my damn puter did a total lock-up and I had to shut it down...Anyone else having any problems? Hammers I know...computers I don't! - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 11:01
panda @?>(@?): - Glenn -- If we broke $332 I would be happy. A test of the $338 to $340 area would be great. If we broke $340, I would be looking to find the 'problem'. Be it a collapsing currency in the PacRim area, Middle East trouble, or inflation fears in Europe. I would then take it from there. IMO, gold needs the one percent of the stock money out there to really get going. For this to happen, we 'need' some 'news' to justify gold going up. Nothing could be worse for the paper hangers than to have gold slowly creep up with no explanation. This would be a sign of the lack of faith in the paper markets. This would be totally unacceptable to the paper hangers. A 'news event' would be something that they could hang their hat on and say, Well, we didn't expect this!, a great face saving move. Some would call it an act of God.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 10:43
panda @>(@): - Lurker @Friday 23:19
Thanks for the info. The URLs didn't work though. I know Schwabee is involved in a class action lawsuit regarding their trading practices. My problem is that I like electronic trading, and they seem to have the best setup around. I'm slowly moving to another broker ( thanks D.A. ) , the only problem is that the new folks don't have as good an electronic setup. Life is tough and you've got to make choices. I prefer good execution, we'll see. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 10:37
panda @continuation>(@continuation): - My last post was not meant to pick on anyone. I just have to look at the gold bear and realize that something similar will have to happen to the stock and bond markets. After all, look at how bullish most of us were /are on gold. All the way from the high 390s to the 410s and all the way down to 314? Most of us never gave up hope that the, “Truth about gold as a store of value” would not rescue the price, all the way down to the present levels.
Now, I am a gold bull!
Please extrapolate our plight to that of the average mutual Fund or go-go stock holder. If we are bulls, what are they? They have had fifteen years of BULL MARKET ACTION! How hard do you think it will be for them to have a paradigm shift? How many, “Sucker rallies”, do you think there will be? How many did the goldbugs have? How much did we all lose? How frustrated did we get? To expect a sudden ‘crash’ and for most stock holders to abandon all hope is not realistic. The ‘dippies’ have to get burnt, and burnt bad! That appears to be the psychology to me.
For now, I’d be happy to have a good trading gold market for the near term. The long term ( years ) is very bullish IMHO. Keep an eye on those currencies, the bonds will follow. Stocks? They’re in a world of their own!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 10:35
Jan @ Denver>(@ Denver): - Steve - Perth. Need to comment about Richard Russell Newsletter if this is same author of Dow Theory Letter. I subscribed for about 6-7 years end of 70's - early 80's. Following his advise he kept me and I'm sure many others out of bull market starting in 1982 with his pessimism on stocks and optimism on gold. I finally unsubscribed.
This happened again with another well known stock guru. I have learned to be very cautious of following one person. It seems the best way is to make own judgement from the many opinions presented at Kitco.
Thanks for your contirbutions. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 10:31
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX): - Well Gold's action the past couple days was impressive. For the first time in awhile I'm beginning to believe that we could rally here. How high? How long? Only the future will tell. I do not see a huge rally, but I am awear of the possiblilities. One would think that at the very least we should test the 100 day moving average. After that......?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 10:24
fkdaja ksafj>(ksafj): - If the US $ won't act like a safehaven to those people with devaluations in prospect, what will? The only other currency is the Yen, however the Japanese do not want the Yen to be stronger against the dollar and the interest rates are around 1%.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 10:21
panda @?>(@?): - I've never understood the preoccupation with October crashes. Time was when the U.S. was an agrarian economy this preoccupation made sense because of cash flows related to farming. Certain times of the year saw higher cash demands/flows due to planting or harvesting. The twenties brought a great change. The modern America was being born, and along with it, heavy industry. This changed the seasonal cash flows in the economy. To expect a ‘market crash’ because it’s October is silly. It may or may not happen. I have a number of friends who are preoccupied with this ‘Tenth Anniversary’ of the October 1987 event. I get very irritated when they bring this date up. I always ask, “Show me where the ‘87 crash was on the Dow chart?” Most could not find the LITTLE blip that was the 1987 correction. The point that I’m trying to make is this; The ‘crash’ does not have to happen in October, this is wishful thinking and coincidence if it does happen. There are many subtle signs of trouble to be sure.
With regards to the market correction of the last day or two, what do you think a swing of forty basis points in the long bond to the upside has done to the bull case of low interest rates and no inflation? Add to that the currency turmoil in the PacRim countries and we have similarities to the spring of 1987. Similarities ONLY. I can’t predict the future, I just try to make the most educated guesses that I can and bet accordingly!
And finally, the reason that everyone that I talk seems to want to get out of the market before the ‘crash’ occurs, is so that they can try to get in at ‘the bottom’! Talk about GAMBLING! Psychology! The fact that so many are expecting such an event leads me to believe that it will not unfold in this manner. My vote is for a long, grinding bear with much volatility. I don’t think a 1500 to 2000 point down day is in the cards. Remember, if we define a crash as ten or twenty percent drop in a few days, you have to be expecting an 800 to 1600 point drop in the Dow in a very short period of time, say in a week. Unlikely unless a cataclysmic event occurs. If that happens, remember your G’s. Gold, ground, guns, grub, god,.....
Cheers!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 09:33
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ
For your or any PGM fans info - the impala platinum end 1996 6 month
results can be found at http://www.implats.co.za.
I suspect that implats earnings per share will rise more than
rusplats eps as a result of the recent run up in the platinum price.
Would appreciate your checking their results-
Please let me know your estimate of implats cost for platinum,
and what earning/ share you project at present platinum levels.
Im beginning to think implat's price of 53.5 rands is low relative
to Rusplats from of around 80. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 09:31
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ
For your or any PGM fans info - the impala platinum 1996 6 month
results can be found at http://www.implats.co.za.
I suspect that implats earnings per share will rise more than
rusplats eps as a result of the recent run up in the platinum price.
Would appreciate your checking their results-
Please let me know your estimate of implats cost for platinum,
and what earning/ share you project at present platinum levels.
Im beginning to think implat's price of 53.5 rands is low relative
to Rusplats from of around 80. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 08:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - 17 Korean Life Insurance Companies Reprimanded by Government
South Korea's Ministry of Finance and Economy banned five life insurance companies from selling
corporate pension insurance and slapped lighter penalties on 12 others. The ministry said the 17
South Korean companies face punitive measures because they failed to respond to an order to
increase their capital ratio. In Korea, insurance companies have to retain 1 percent of their
outstanding policies as assets. The 17 companies, mostly small and new, were unable to raise their
capital because of slim profits amid a toughening business environment, said James Kim, an
executive director at Kyobo Life Insurance Co., the second- largest insurance company in South
Korea after Samsung Life Insurance Co. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 08:16
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - Milhouse and NJ: Any updates from Princeton Economics? Looks like July's monthly close on gold was well below their projected price support level necessary for a gold bottom to be in.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 08:08
Milhouse @Home>(@Home): -
STEVE - PERTH :
Thanks for the interesting comments on Australia. I have an investment property in Perth and I keep getting conflicting views from various sources about what is happening to the Perth residential property market. You paint a fairly bleak picture which I suspect is quite accurate.
Korea and Hong Kong are both in Asia, but that is about the only similarity. Hong Kong still has ( I think ) a British legal system and the closest thing to a free market economy anywhere in the world. The reason for the hot lending in Korea is that Govt has total control over the banking system. Banks are told how much to lend and who to lend to. Such a system will inevitably collapse.
HK doesn't have anywhere near the level of social services that Australia has. More to the point, with full employment it doesn't need them. An extensive welfare system requires high taxes, which in turn restrict economic growth leading to higher unemployment and lower tax revenues, which in turn create the need for more welfare services and higher taxes, and so on. Australia needs to break the cycle. The problem is, the current political leadership doesn't have the guts or the brains to do it.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 08:03
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Barron's Items: Michael Santoli attributes the Friday slide to a glut of new Treasury supply, word of Asian bank selling and more evidence of a strengthening economy
Randall Forsyth talks about dollar weakness as the cause: A weakening dollar and excessive money growth supposedly are old-school worries deemed irrelevant to the new paradigm of technologically driven growth. Suddenly, the currency and capital markets aren't so sure. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:15
Mike Sheller @Ted>(@Ted): - TED: Thanks. I saw Rogers' Worth site. His stuff is always meaty and worthwhile. But you're right, the magazine doesn't update it much.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:10
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - MILLHOUSE: Yep. This crossed my mind while I was posting the article. However Santamaria, the eternal prophet, is usually a bit ahead of his time as usual. When the rest of the world catches up to Japan, his remedy will still be the only answer out of the coming Depression, and there won't be any convenient temporary escape hatches for the Banks to use ( ala Japanese money going via US ) . We will all be in the manure together. The Asian currency problems are only the beginning. Am not sure about Roosevelt. Have heard various view points. The main issue is how Australia issued credit at virtually nil interest early this century to keep confidence up. Unfortunately the rentier class won't permit it until is far too late. If they had any brains, they would allow some majore govt infrastructure projects at low rates to stimulate the economcy. At the moment, interest rates are dropping at the expense of the unemployed ( high rate ) .
The high tax rates are a problem. It is the shameful legacy of a bureaucracy gone mad in Canberra. I am amazed at how low the HK tax rates are, but I wonder if you provide the same degree of social benefits as in Australia to ALL of the HK citizens. Also, how many low income earners are being used up on the China mainland to maintain HK's high standard of living? Also, there is a lot of hot lending going on up there. For example, note how KIA motor co in Korea was lent money to the tune of 500% debt to equity. Unbelievable. Economies will always look good with hot lending like that. Just thoughts that crossed my mind last week when considering the issue of very low tax rates in HK. Undoubted our system, including Capital Gains Tax, Fringe Benefits Tax is punitive to business.
I had to laugh! Our High Court finally ended the States from collecting taxes on tobacco & fuel. H.O. Wills ( Tobacco Co ) suspended trading on Australian stock exchange & shut down production of Cigarettes for two days until issue clarified. Unbelievable! A bit like turning off the mains on all the Water Dams for two days ( for smokers ) . Australia is limping along, but needs a major overhaul. I asked Treasurer Peter Costello a direct question about an inquiry into our Superannuation & tas system a week ago, & he just went to water, taking the typical treasury line saying we can't make too many changes. They might upset all the left wingers living in Sydney & Melbourne, & lose the next Federal Election ( December 1998? )
OUTLOOK:
I can see some very early signs of lack of confidence already in the Perth Metro area. Low socio-economic area large shopping centre boutique tenants going broke, & their shopping centre shops empty. This has not spread right across Perth yet, however. Just wait. Last week large property analyst co. claimed Retail shops in Australia 35% over-valued. Quite likely so. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:09
Ted @Mike Sheller>(@Mike Sheller): - Mornin Mike! For Christ sakes check out the satellite image ( previous post ) before you leave....Have a great day out there!...Good call by Jimmy Rogers yesterday at 8 ( EST ) when he said he had shorted the long bond...and several weeks ago he went long on the YEN...He's got a site ( connected to Worth mag ) but he infrequently updates...Do you want it Loved his book Investment Biker...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:03
Mike Sheller fly me to the Moon...>(fly me to the Moon...): - RON JETT: Most important of all...thanks for the new charts. Looks like XAU ready to ROCK N' ROLL!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:02
Ted @your weather>(@your weather): - http://cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/satellite_image.html
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:01
Mike Sheller some catchup ketchup>(some catchup ketchup): - TED: Mornin! Nice day here, it seems. Out to Montauk w/theMissus later. GOLDFINGER: I beg to differ with you. I DO have a crystal ball. I just don't use it except for decoration. I 'm an astrologer ( :- ) ) . STEVE: Russell's viewpoint very comprehensive. Thanks. AUROPHILE: ( 22:52 ) Speaking of comprehensive, I loved your concise turn of decade newsletter. Worth the entire subscription price ( :- ) ) JIMMY ROGERS: Get online man! Here's my icon of YOU: ( :+ ) ) %
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 07:00
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Alan Abelson, in his Barron's column, has some whitty things to say about gold. Also, he must be a lurker at the Kitco site because he references the Dow/Gold Ratio.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:58
George Cole Barron's>(Barron's): - How fitting that Barron's had a cover story on superbull Ed Yardeni last week at what was most probably the bull market peak.
Trading scams on the rise. Much more to come as bear market gathers steam:
August 9, 1997
Currency Trading Scam Leaves Investors Holding the
( Empty ) Bag
By EDWARD WYATT
EW YORK -- Jin Ming Chen, a 46-year-old Chinese immigrant, showed up Friday
morning at a Manhattan office building, looking for his life savings.
But when Chen, a garment worker from Brooklyn, knocked on the door of the AEL Fund Inc.,
a currency trading company in which he had invested his entire nest egg of $41,967.03, there
was no answer.
Since Tuesday, the office has been closed and locked, and no sign remains of the millions of
dollars invested in the fund over the last year by dozens of investors from across the country.
Chen is not the first person to come looking for Alex Efrosman, the 35-year-old Russian
immigrant who law enforcement officials say was chief executive of the AEL Fund. Twice in
the last year, currency trading companies in which Efrosman was a top executive have been the
target of federal proceedings charging that the companies defrauded investors.
At a time when profit-hungry investors are funneling billions of dollars into almost anything
that has the word fund in its name, the story of Efrosman and the AEL Fund provides a cold
dose of reality about just how easy it is for otherwise sensible investors to be tripped up by
fraudulent financial schemes.
Moreover, Efrosman's case demonstrates how difficult it is for law enforcement officials to
stop securities con artists, even when they are caught, from reopening under another shingle
and preying on other amateur investors.
While no governmental authority keeps detailed numbers, law enforcement officials say that
schemes involving currency trading are on the rise, replacing precious metals as the commodity
of choice among investment frauds.
In particular, there has been a growing awareness of the currency market, as large companies
increasingly try to minimize the effects of changes in the value of the dollar against foreign
currencies and as speculators like George Soros make headlines. At the same time, the gold and
silver markets, once the favorite arena for professional speculators, have been moribund.
We've seen a lot of currency scams lately, said Andrew Kandel, head of the investor
protection division of the New York state attorney general's office.
Some law enforcement officials believe that currency schemes have increased since a U.S.
Supreme Court decision in February removed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
from regulating certain parts of the foreign currency market, leaving it unclear under whose
purview companies like the AEL Fund fall.
Even with the stock market gaining more than 40 percent in the last year, many investors were
attracted by the siren call of profits of more than 30 percent a month, which they said had been
promised by AEL Fund salesmen. Now, the U.S. attorney's office and the Manhattan district
attorney's office are investigating the AEL Fund and its disappearance.
Warren Meyers, a Los Angeles investor, said that although he was initially wary of the AEL
salesman who contacted him through a cold call, he was impressed by the glossy brochures,
financial history and sample account statements that were sent to him at his request.
When Meyers invested $10,000 in June, I made more than 31 percent in one month, he said.
In July, he asked for, and received, a check for $3,115 in profits. Confident that the AEL Fund
was on the level, Meyers sent in another $20,000.
Chen said he first heard about the AEL Fund in an advertisement on a Chinese-language radio
station. He went from his home in Brooklyn to the fund's offices on the 15th floor of the Fisk
Building on West 57th Street, and everything appeared legitimate to him.
But beginning early this year, shortly after the AEL Fund moved into its 3,500-square-foot
space, neighboring companies in the Fisk Building began looking askance at the shabbily
dressed, uncouth people who represented themselves as currency traders.
They were out of control, said Arnold Angrist, a chiropractor whose office is down the hall
from the AEL office, now empty. They were screaming and cursing in the hallways. It was
obvious they were not the real thing.
On Tuesday, many of the firm's salesmen showed up for work, only to find the office locked, a
sign on the door saying Office Closed. By Wednesday, the phone was disconnected, and a
steady stream of investors began to show up looking for their money.
Law enforcement officials say that building surveillance cameras showed two people, a man and
a woman, removing boxes from the building Monday night. George P. Fabian, building
manager for the Fisk Building, which is managed by Helmsley-Spear Inc., said the AEL Fund
was still on its tenant rolls, but he declined to comment further.
Perhaps it was mere coincidence that the AEL offices were abandoned just days before the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Thursday filed an eight-count administrative
complaint charging Global Currencies Ltd., a separate company co-founded by Efrosman, with
selling illegal foreign currency futures contracts in 1994 and 1995.
According to the complaint, Efrosman, who has never been registered with the commission in
any capacity, shared responsibility for day-to-day management of the company for four months
in 1994 and 1995. The complaint also names as defendants three other individuals, including
two other co-founders of Global Currencies.
Currency futures contracts are a method of speculating on the direction of currency exchange
rates; they give the buyer the right to buy a certain amount of a given currency at a set price at
a designated time.
John Fahy, a lawyer with the law firm of Waters McPherson McNeill, who said he was
representing Efrosman but not the companies or other individual defendants, said Friday that he
had not yet seen the commission's complaint and declined further comment.
Efrosman, whose last known address was on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, could not be
reached.
Even before this week's complaint against Global Currencies, Efrosman had drawn the attention
of federal securities regulators. In October, the CFTC obtained a preliminary injunction against
and froze the assets of Worldwide Currencies Inc., a New York trading company.
According to an affidavit filed in the case, Efrosman was Worldwide's president and an owner
of at least 10 percent of the company. Efrosman was not, however, named as a defendant in the
case.
So when Efrosman began running the AEL Fund late last year, individual investors had little
chance to learn about his past. Certainly it was not mentioned in the sales literature given to
Chen and other investors, which described the AEL Fund as an expert in the trading of foreign
currencies like the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the German mark.
Chen's 14-year-old daughter, Qiyu, who accompanied him as a translator on his pilgrimage to
AEL's offices Friday, said there was never any mention of such potential problems, and the
account statements mailed to Chen each month never showed a loss of more than 3 percent of
their investment. Rather, the statements showed their savings had grown to more than $69,000
in little more than three months.
My mother works every day and weekends, too, to save money, and we put it all in the AEL
Fund, Miss Chen said. Now it's gone.
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Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:54
Mike Sheller Astrological Investor hat>(Astrological Investor hat): - JEB: On July 18 I posted that platinum ( then at $394 ) must knife through congestion between 400 - 410. If it did so, I saw next resistance at 430-435. It did so, and reached 435 on August 1. Subsequently, I posted that if Pt could take out its previous hi of 475ish, it could go to 500-600. Mars conjuncting Neptune in the horoscope of the NYSE on Friday thru Monday signified excited action in Platinum and crude oil to me ( a phenomenon I flagged a week a go ) . Naturally it also shook the NYSE ( stock market surrogate ) in general. I would therefore expect some follow through on Platinum Monday. But Mars is a relatively fast moving planet, and the angular aspects it makes on a chart are relatively short-lived. All I'm saying is that by mid week Mars' influence on NYSE Neptune will be passing. Platinum looks like a hold to me. It has made a major breakout from a longterm downtrend, has made a return move to test that breakout, and is in a very excited graphic price chart configuration. Now that the return move has been successfully completed, there is reason to expect the next high to be above the previous breakout spike around 475. It is like a wild alley cat right now, and any extra bullish factor here can drive it much higher. As RJ pointed out last week, the actual efficiencies of industrial use of Platinum allow a little to go a long way. The price can be very elastic before substitutes are sought, or use is curtailed. Reason would require you stand back for a while and hold fast.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:51
Ted @weather>(@weather): - Anyone else out there like the CNN North American Satellite Image site?
Being a weather FREAK,it's one of my favorite stops on the net...Can tell ya somethin about grain futures and thus gold to a degree... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:32
Milhouse @Home>(@Home): -
To : Steve - Perth
Steve - re Bob Santamaria's article on interest rates. I thought it was strange that Bob would cite 1930's US and 1990's Japan as examples of the use of low interest rates to stimulate economic recovery, as these examples demonstrate the failure of this policy. Low interest rates in Japan have simply pushed Japanese investment overseas and penalised those Japanese who save money. IMO the fundamental problem in Australia is a taxation system which removes the incentive to work and to invest.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:24
George Cole market outlook>(market outlook): - While we most likely have entered a bear market for financial assets and a bull market for gold, this is not yet 100% certain. Spot gold need to break through chart resistance at $330 with conviction. And the next stock rally should fall considerably short of 8300. But the fact that this latest stock drop was accompanied by a strong gold rally makes it very probable that the tide has turned.
I do not expect much public selling of mutual funds until the Dow Industrials drop more than 10%. The summer 1996 and spring 1997 selloffs were contained at that level. But once stocks drop by more than 10%, downside action will accelerate for equities. And gold's rally will gather steam.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:17
Ted @Barrons>(@Barrons): - Barrons ( net edition ) is NOT out yet so don't bother lookin fer it!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:12
Ted @Niner>(@Niner): - Niner ( 23:44 ) Bein in stox myself,I think you very well could be right...
I still don't think the END of the world is commin and until Exxon ( ect ) drops or eliminates their dividend,I'm only buyin more shares naturally through DRIP....cause I am a DRIP!...On other important matters: DONALD: I USED to have this site all to myself early Saturday mornins and USED to have some very intellectual conversations with myself before YOU showed up....but ALL good ( and bad ) things come to an end...eh... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:04
Ted @Earl>(@Earl): - Earl ( 00:26 ) You took the words right out of my mouth....but bein a nail pounder for 25 years .....I couldn't spell em let alone say em...Are you near Lake Oswego?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Asia-Pacific: Tokyo reverses firm opening
to end 1.2% lower
Originally published: FRIDAY AUGUST 8 1997
By Gwen Robinson.
TOKYO tumbled as the decline in Nikkei 225 index futures prompted
arbitrageurs to pull out of cash stocks.
The Nikkei 225 average slid 226.22 or 1.2 per cent to 19,475.85 after
trading between 19,336.14 and 19,772.18. Trading began on a firm note
as domestic and foreign institutions carried out large basket-style
purchases. Banks rebounded following the previous day's report that the
government will allow banks other financial institutions to issue perpetual
bonds.
But the upward momentum was soon lost once Nikkei index futures
started to slide in Osaka, which sparked fresh bouts of profit-taking in the
cash market. The 225 index slid further in the afternoon as securities
houses sold construction-related stocks on growing concern about the
sector's financial health.
Volume eased from 392m shares to an estimated 378m. Declines
overwhelmed advances 869 to 228 with 155 unchanged. The Topix index
of all first-section stocks fell 10.53 to 1,497.18 and the capital-weighted
Nikkei 300 was down 1.80 at 293.03.
General contractors continued to suffer from concerns about the poor
earnings outlook in the face of cash flow problems and planned cuts in
public works spending. Aoki fell Ą7 to Ą60, Fujita Ą21 to Ą95, and
Shimizu Ą30 to Ą570.
Many blue-chip exporters saw profit-taking after the previous day's gains.
TDK slid Ą90 to Ą9,900, Kyocera Ą270 to Ą9,530 and Pioneer Electronic
Ą160 to Ą2,740. Honda fell Ą110 to Ą3,680 and Toyota Ą10 to Ą3,250.
However, Sony rose Ą200 to Ą12,100 and Nikon Ą90 to Ą2,360.
Banking issues gained ground. Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan, the day's
most active issue, rose Ą36 to Ą570 in spite of news that Moody's Investor
Service had downgraded its senior debt rating. Industrial Bank of Japan
rose Ą20 to Ą1,680 and Sakura Bank Ą17 to Ą735 on active buying by
foreign brokers.
Ahead of today's listing of Fuji Television, broadcasting issues were
popular. Nippon Television Network rose Ą600 to Ą47,600 and Tokyo
Broadcasting System Ą60 to Ą2,020.
Among leading securities houses, Nomura Securities was the only winner,
rising Ą20 to Ą1,700, while Daiwa Securities fell Ą28 to Ą760 and
Yamaichi Securities Ą14 to Ą238.
In Osaka, the OSE average fell 162.96 to 20,225.85 and volume eased to
13m shares.
SYDNEY closed lower following a shake-out for resources leader BHP.
The All Ordinaries index came off 9.4 to 2,717.7. BHP fell 55 cents or 3
per cent to A$17.44 on news of management changes. Brambles gained
A$1.13 or 4 per cent to A$29.11 following sparkling results from joint
venture partner GKN of the UK.
JAKARTA fell steeply as higher interest rates and new rules for retail
investors hit sentiment. The composite index ended 21.92 or 3.13 per cent
lower at 677.94.
The wave of selling prompted a confidence-boosting visit to the exchange
bĄ Mr Marie Muhammad, the finance minister.
The central bank tightened monetary policy in an effort to stave off an
attack on the rupiah.
New margin finance regulations for retail investors also fuelled bearish
sentiment.
Brokers said rights issues over the next few weeks had added to the
market's woes.
KUALA LUMPUR was plagued by rumours that played havoc with a
market already worried about the economy. The composite index shed
23.41 or 2.5 per cent to 928.33.
Rumours that the central bank governor and the finance minister were to
be replaced were denied.
There was also talk that a large pension fund, which had been propping up
the market with its buying in recent days, had hit the ceiling for the amount
of money it could invest.
It all helped depress sentiment that had already been damaged by recent
news of a widening trade deficit and aggressive central bank moves to limit
currency speculation.
Malayan Bank shed 30 cents to M$22.60, Telekom Malaysia lost 30
cents to M$9.00 and United Engineers was down M$1.00 at M$16.20.
MANILA paused for breath after climbing for eight sessions. The main
index closed 24.78 lower at 2.670.01 in thin volume. Brokers said
profit-takers shrugged off lower interest rates as they believed a correction
was due.
HONG KONG extended its record run in best-ever volume. The Hang
Seng index rose 131.67 to an all-time high of 16,673.27 in turnover of
HK$34.2bn.
Property stocks continued to lead the way, with Cheung Kong rising
HK$4.75 to HK96.75 on 11.7m shares traded. Among smaller caps,
Great Eagle gained HK$1.35 to HK$29.55 and Shun Tak 25 cents to
HK$4.875. In banks, HSBC added HK$2.00 at HK$271.
Alpha General made a firm debut, rising to HK$1.32 before closing at
HK$1.17, against a flotation price of HK$1.00.
SINGAPORE closed lower on rumours that the government was planning
to scrap the dual listing system for foreign and local tranche shares.
The Straits Times index ended off 5.38 at 1,953.24. Hongkong Land was
again active, closing up 2 cents at US$3.42 on 20.9m traded. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 06:01
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald! We have a brisk East wind with nothin in the forcast but clouds and showers for the weekend....We've been a real drought so it's needed though....I miss Barrons ( in print ) and will have to satisfy myself with the net version...My Saturday subsitute for it is the Globe and Mail ( toronto ) business section which is a good read....even if their NYSE listings aren't totally complete and typically many of my stocks are so small and obscure that they aren't listed....Like PNY,BGC,SAJ ect..ect...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:52
Ted @Canadian Chamber of Commerce>(@Canadian Chamber of Commerce): - To Americans: If you're tryin to think of a good place to take a vacation come up North and take advantage of the LOW Canadian Dollar ( 71.94 ) or in other words ya get approx. 139$ Canadian for your 100$...On my recent visit to the states I was amazed at how much more expensive groceries were than back home in Canada...Many items were priced close to the same price which translates into a 39% discount...As many Canadians will attest to,we have our own ridiculous taxes ( BST..ect..ect.. ) BUT there are many hidden ( or not so hidden costs ) to livin in the USA,such as the absurdly HIGH property taxes ( at least in VERMONT ) where you get NOTHING for your hard earned money....Hey,at least we get FREE garbage pick-up...
Come on up but when ya do don't forget ta bring your one bottle ( per person ) of liquor with ya....One of the few things that is more expensive here but if ya know the right people there are ways around even that!
Newfie Screech.... - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:47
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD: This article is for you!!!
AT THE HEART OF AUSTRALIA’S PROBLEMS: By Bob Santamaria ( Aged 80+ )
I cannot recall a period in the last 20 to 30 years said Prime Minister John Howard last month, When you’ve had such a fortunate conjunction of low inflation, falling interest rates, expanding growth, strong business investment and falling Budget deficits, and a very positive international economic climate. You take these five or six things together and you have an underpinning and a base for employment growth the like of which we haven’t seen for the last 20 years. ( Age, July 17, 1997 )
This may or may not be true. Unfortunately, people don’t believe it.
Despite more than 20 consecutive quarters of alleged economic growth, more than 25% of male full-time jobs, adjusted for population growth, have been lost since 1970, and remain lost. The number of long-term unemployed, 245000 ( of 18 million population ) , is now the highest it has been in 26 months. The main source of income for one in every three adults is now a government welfare payment. Welfare is no substitute for work.
It ought by now be clear that the economic policies which have led to this situation should be changed. Industry policy which worked in the case of Kodak but not in that of BHP - is far from a universal panacea.
In this situation, consideration might be given to a proposal which has the prospect of replacing many thousands of full-time jobs lost, especially among the unskilled: namely a national program of public works similar to that executed during the war by the Allied Works Council, under the initial direction of the late E.G. Theodore.
Australia’s stock of infrastructure has been valued at approximately $400 billion, of which 70% is economic ( roads, railways, water & power supplies ) and the remainder social ( hospitals, schools, public housing ) . Lack of investment in both sectors has caused a serious level of deterioration. In addition, there are major works like the development of North-West Australia, once dismissed as uneconomic, but now with a different prospect due to the economic growth of East & South East Asia, and the development of food shortages consequent on population growth. The International Rice Institute, for instance, estimates that world rice production must be increased by 70% to avoid future famines like that in North Korea. ( Guardian Weekly, 20th July, 1997 ) .
The critical problem is the method of financing such a program, since it is axiomatic that both increased tax and/or increased debt should be excluded. When the world was caught up in the consequences of the crash of 1933, J.M. Keynes stated boldly that the level of interest rates was the key: it is to our own best advantage he wrote to reduce the rate of interest to the point…at which there is full employment. The extent of the reduction in interest rates which such a program would demand is much more than anything contemplated today.
UNEMPLOYED;
Such a program requires the expansion of repayable loans by the Reserve Bank at a rate as low as 1% - to cover administration expenses - until the number of unemployed has been reduce to a level of no more than 3% of the working population. This would offer a sufficient margin of safety against the onset of inflation. The downward movement in the number of unemployed would serve as a measuring-rod for both the size and the duration of the program.
This suggestion can be justified in both theory and practice.
As to theory, the Report of the Royal Commission on Banking ( 1937 ) in Australia stated that the Central bank can lend to the government or to others in a variety of ways and can even make money available to the government or others free of charge. Asked to clarify the meaning of this statement, the chairman of that Commission , Mr Justice Napier, replied:
This statement means that the Commonwealth ( now the Reserve ) Bank money available to governments, or to others, on such terms as it chooses, even by way of loans without interest, or even without requiring either interest or repayment of principal.
As recently as January 14, 1997, Dr Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, advanced the same principle:
Central banks can issue currency, a non interest-bearing claim by the government, effectively without limit…To be sure, if a central bank produces too many, inflation will inexorable rise as will interest rates, and economic activity will inevitably be constrained by the misallocation of resource induced by inflation. If it produces too few, the economy’s expansion also will presumably be constrained by a shortage of the necessary lubricant for transactions. Authorities must struggle continuously to find the proper balance.
This principle has been put into practice on many occasions. The US New Deal was financed by Roosevelt through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation which was established by his predecessor, Herbert Hoover. It advanced $15 billion to provide emergency funding for financial institutions to aid in financing agriculture, commerce and industry, playing a major role in pump-priming the recovery. Even greater resources were made available through the Farm Credit Administration. ( Davies: A History of Money, University of Wales Press, p.511 ) .
Britain financed its participation in World War II at an average of 2%. The key to the structure writes Davies ( p.390 ) was the stabilisation of the Treasury Bill rate at 1%.
The Commonwealth Bank, established in 1911, financed the building of Australia’s East-West railway from 1913 to 1917, at 1%. The Bank of Japan is today advancing credit through to the commercial banking system at one half of 1%. There are thus very clear examples of what other countries have been prepared to do when faced with emergency situations, as we are today.
A program of recovery admittedly involves programs more complex and varied than the single question of interest, but the rate of interest and the monopoly control of credit by private institutions lie at the heart of our problem.
NOTE: Bob Santamaria grew up during the 1930’s. experiencing the savages of the Great Depression in Australia.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:46
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot): - BERNIE: Even the NY Times management will not deny their liberal bias, but then aren't we all biased, more or less. At least they have their token, Mr. Safire, and the WSJ has theirs, Mr. Hunt. ;- )
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:45
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Good Morning Ted: I think our weather man has a side job of making gold forecasts. We had rain during the night and none was expected. It is still dark here. I will head out to look for Barron's soon.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:44
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Another point of view:
Richard Russells’ Newsletter ( California ) 16th July, 1997
GOLD: During the great bear markets of 1929-1932 and 1937-38 and even 1973-74, it was clear that those people who owned their own private businesses enjoyed a huge advantage over those investors who owned shares of a public business via quoted stocks. The advantage was that private businessmen didn’t have to suffer the stomach-churning experience of watching the stocks of their companies going down the drain.
Many subscribers own actual gold in the form of gold coins such as Maple Leafs, Krugerrands, American Eagles, etc. These coains are ( or should be ) held as insurance against disaster, and I guess it would be better if coin owners didn’t even look at the price of gold - which unfortunately, has been swooning. Gold coins shouldn’t be held for profit, they should be held as INSURANCE. Every paper currency in history has ended as a museum curiosity; gold alone has lasted through the centuries as money. The price of gold could be 300 next month, 280 by December and 600 by the year 2000. Obviously, nobody knows, but since gold coins are a form of timeless wealth, they should be held to your very old age and then handed down to the kids or grand-kids.
As for gold stocks, ah, that’s a different story. Nobody holds gold shares for insurance, or at least they shouldn’t. Gold stocks are a leverage play on a rising price for gold.
On July 3 we received news that the Australian Central bank sold 167 tons ( $1.7 billion ) of gold. On the news, gold tumbled. By July 7, the August gold futures contracts had dropped to an intra-day low of 4.18. A bad day for metals all round.
It’s clear that today’s new group of Central bankers are willing to swap gold for paper. Gold-philes call it a conspiracy, I call it ignorance or stupidity.
The Founding Fathers of this nation introduced a stable money system that was MOST EMPHATICALLY NOT BASED ON DEBT. The purpose of this system was to avoid the debasement of the nation’s money. In other words, the system was created to establish a money that people could trust, a money with INTRINSIC VALUE. In that way the greatest and most insidious tax of all, inflation, could be thwarted. With the creation of the Federal Reserve, the intentions of the Founding Fathers were circumvented.
It is possible that in selling huge quantities of gold, the various central banks are seeking to discredit the metal. That’s the conspiracy theory. Of course, the other possibility is that the central bankers have finally swallowed their own propaganda, and they honestly believe they are better off with interest-paying paper than with intrinsic-value gold. I have no way of knowing. I only know what is happening.
At this point, every gold-follower is wondering whether we have seen the lows for the gold complex or whether there is more to come.
What interests me is that we could have seen an exhaustion gap of the downside, three days of trading at the lows, and then another gap but this time the gap was to the upside. The result is what’s termed an island reversal. This means that the three low days are separated by gaps on both sides. Island reversals often identify the end of a move ( either up or down ) , and in this case it is hoped that this island reversal with an extreme intra-day low of 85.79 recorded on July 7 marks the end of the bear market in gold. What would confirm that the lows have been seen? If XAU closed above 98, I would say that two to one we have seen the lows.
SHARE MARKET: A NEW ERA? If, following this bull market, we have an extremely mild bear market, and then a new bull market is born, we will be able to say that something new has occurred. We will be able to say that because all stock market history tells us the BIG bull markets are followed by BIG bear markets.
All history tells us that this bull market should be followed by a hair-curdling bear market. If that doesn’t happen, then yes, something has indeed changed, and the law of actions and reaction in the stock market has been suspended or negated.
I expect that this bull market will keep advancing - up and up until the buyers are totally exhausted.
The end won’t come on a news event, the end won’t be signalled by some technical signal or a non-confirmation or an announcement by the Fed: no, the end will come as THE MARKET TOPPLES OVER AND FALLS OF ITS OWN WEIGHT. Once toppling over , I expect the ensuing bear market decline to be as relentless and persistent as has been the rise since 1990. I don’t expect a crash, but rather a stubborn, day after day, seemingly endless decline.
There you have it - the Russell view of things to come.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - JUNEAU Hu: In politics, austerity pays only
when everything else has been discredited
Your 3:32 post had this very perceptive thought. I would like to add that austerity will arrive for politicians only after it has arrived for the public in general. In a democracy we elect people who are just like us, at the time the election takes place. If we are spendthrift at home we are likely to elect spendthrift leaders. It is when the majority sees the virtue of austerity for themselves that they will elect leaders who mirror their newly acquired views. I am afraid that it will require a significant economic event before that happens. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:25
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good Mornin Kitcoites! Gold soared overnight......in muy dreams!..Re-Pound Sterling: Yes,they raised their rates a quarter point BUT the expectations were for a HALF point rise and they also indicated they may NOT be doing more raising in the near future...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 05:17
Jack Pound>(Pound): -
Either the English Pound was too high, or inflationary signs were to great.
They raised rates and their currency fell.
This is contrary to the actions that the world bankers would expect from a G7 currency rate rise and could be a good part of why gold moved nicely on friday. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 04:53
Auric @home>(@home): -
Well lads, finally had a few go our way. Juneau Hu has brought up an issue that has been on the back burner for a while. The problems with Europe and the EMU have not gone away. I agree that Germany, France, and Italy will start firing up them printing presses. IMHO, the pace of events will happen more quickly now. What better place to watch than ringside, right here at Kitco! - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 04:08
Jack No matter how you look at it>(No matter how you look at it): -
Stockies, bondos and goldbugs alike are completely snowned by the mountain of statistics that eminate from the Nations Capital and various the Think ( stink ) Tanks, every day; to their own confusion.
When we have many trillions in debt, both public and private; my personal feeling is THAT THE LAWS OF ECONOMICS NO LONGER APPLY and to fool with these principles only makes matters worst. While nothing at all is certain GOLD, A TENT AND A FOOD SUPPLY is the best bet. Hey maybe they'll bribe us with free food. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:54
John N Retiarivs>(Retiarivs): -
[Ave, Earlei; es imperator Kitcoensis. Vendor et emptor, torus et ursa, te salutant!]
Barb-ette: ...animated fuzzy things.? Are you sure it wasn't Lou's usual table?
Vale.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:37
Jack Goldfinger Addition of (short term)>(Goldfinger Addition of (short term)): -
Goldfinger; if this market crashes; it will probably be
as the result of the high interest rates to keep those
( SHORT TERM ) foreign deposits in US Treasuries from completely flying
the koop.
With most people, uncertain as they are now; why under
such a scenario, will people buy realestate? Do you
believe the opinion polls? The stock market is the only
hope; and thus why DC is behind it.
I think we also have to consider the present private debt
levels which are relatively high and may not be paid
back.
Further real property carries with it the burden of
upkeep and taxes, which may further dampen its demand.
More likely, real estate will fall from its presently
inflated prices and become attractive when all the
expenses associated with it are much more reasonable.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:36
Big Dummy @Questions and then some!>(@Questions and then some!): - Mr/Mz Oprah - what's a not a rip Financial space mean?
I don't get it?
Are you a Bull, Bear or a Pig on Gold? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:34
Jack Goldfinger>(Goldfinger): -
Goldfinger; if this market crashes; it will probably be as the result of the high interest rates to keep those foreign deposits in US Treasuries from completely flying the koop.
With most people, uncertain as they are now; why under such a scenario, will people buy realestate? Do you believe the opinion polls? The stock market is the only hope; and thus why DC is behind it.
I think we also have to consider the present private debt levels which are relatively high and may not be paid back.
Further real property carries with it the burden of upkeep and taxes, which may further dampen its demand.
More likely, real estate will fall from its presently inflated prices and become attractive when all the expenses associated with it are much more reasonable.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:28
Aubrey @buystander.com>(@buystander.com): - I know we are all eager to take advantage of the up comming 2000 Gold Rush, It's one of those sure things that come around every millenia or so, but what has changed here day?. The equity picture looks the same! exponential gains take exponential profit taking dips when they run out of steam, and then they take another breath. It was a good day for Gold, not a rip Financial space. That was to easy.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:25
Big Dummy @Please explain>(@Please explain): - Mr/Mz Hu:
I don't get it. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:22
Milhouse @Home>(@Home): -
To Front, formerly known as David, formerly known as Front : Welcome back !
To All : Friday's gold price move was insignificant in terms of telling us anything about the near term price direction. IMHO, there is still a 50% chance that we will see gold hit new lows and the stock market hit new highs. However, Friday's action was extremely significant because it provides further evidence that gold is still considered a store of value and a hedge against inflation. It is looking like George Cole will be proven to be 100% correct, not because he has predicted the value or timing of a stock market peak, but because he has correctly predicted that the stock market peak and the gold market bottom will coincide.
Cheers, Milhouse - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:22
Juneau Hu Yahoo@Juneauwhere.com>(Yahoo@Juneauwhere.com): - Port Wine And Foie Gras
by Juneau Hu
Europe appears to have ended the long period of fiscal austerity to prepare it for monetary union. Germany now has had all the austerity it can take. This same Germany had loudly proclaimed that it would not tolerate any gimmicks softer-currency nations like Spain or Italy might use to meet the convergence targets. ( These targets include budget
deficits under 3% of GDP and government debt under 60% of GDP. )
Now Germany is battling over an attempt to revalue its gold reserves to fudge the numbers. And if Germany fudges a
little for EMU to proceed, greats vats of fudge will be whipped up in the fiscal kitchens of Italy and France. Belt loosening will follow a bulging budget waistline just as earlier austerity gave Europe a seemingly svelte look.
It reminds me of Chancellor Kohl's annual spa retreat to take off 10-20 pounds. The aim is not permanent weight reduction, but merely preparation for another year of hearty feasting on Good Frau Kohl's heavy cooking.
Kohl is the longest-serving German Chancellor since Bismark. Both unified their country, Bismarck under Prussia using
arms, Kohl under Bonn using money. Bismarck, who weighed 260 pounds, was put on a strict diet by his doctor, but Countess Bismarck used to sneak dietary supplements to her spouse under her skirts, like port wine and foie gras.
Similarly, Germany's period of half-hearted dieting has come to an end and the refrigerator doors of consumption are
now swinging open. And not only in Germany.
Politicians all over Europe realize that further diets will lose them elections. They fear suffering the fate of the British Tories and the French Gaullists. In politics, austerity pays only when everything else has been discredited.
Emerging markets investors face a hearty buffet from European embonpoint. The credit quality premium over emerging markets European bonds were awarded is the only thing likely to get slimmer now. Convergence will follow too from the improvement in emerging country finances that will result from faster global growth-an outcome of easier conditions in Europe.
While growth will put pressure on interest rates, this will be felt mainly on the short end of the yield curve, and mainly in low-rate Europe and Japan. The increased liquidity generously provided by the central banks of Europe and Japan-for now-means a buffet bash at the high-yield high-calorie emerging bond markets. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 03:07
Milhouse Hong Kong / China>(Hong Kong / China): -
Polls conducted in Hong Kong during the first days of the Special Administrative Region showed a general lack of special feeling about the transfer of sovereignty. No excitement about the ceremonies; no shock about the change of identity. It was life as usual, business as usual. I think that as long as people in HK continue to make good money they won't really give a damn who runs the govt.
Chinese officials reiterated that Hong Kong would continue to function as a window and a bridge between the mainland and the world, and its position would not be replaced by any other mainland cities. Hong Kong would enjoy a high degree of autonomy in its import and export business and would maintain a tariff system separate and independent from that of the mainland.
The key to HK is the property market, which is far more manic than the US stock market, and the key ( short term ) to the property market is US interest rates. The reason is, of course, the fact that the HK$ is pegged to the US dollar which in turn requires HK interest rates to be maintained in line with US rates. Friday's sell-off in the US bond market will probably lead to a few hundred points being lopped off the Hang Seng on Monday, with property stocks being the hardest hit. A further and more substantial sell off in US debt could precipitate a property market crash in HK.
One big advantage that HK has is its foreign exchange reserves. Hong Kong has jumped to fifth place in the rankings of the world’s top foreign exchange reserves, which were boosted to over USD82 billion at the end of June. Hong Kong’s ranking is up from seventh in the world, leaping the United States and Singapore but remaining behind Japan, the Mainland, Taiwan and Germany. These reserves should at least protect HK from the currency turmoil which is engulfing the rest of SE Asia.
China's most immediate concern is to gain entry into the WTO. Look for an announcement on China's WTO entry to be made during Jiang Zemin's visit to the US in October to meet Clinton. Such a photo opportunity may prove to be irresistable to Clinton.
Cheers, Milhouse - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 02:47
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for Bernie@New York Times -
Actually, Bernie, I love the Times - The paper is VERY soft you
know. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 02:44
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ - Yes it seems too low - I think we need to set
up a set of 10 subcutaneous equations ( they're getting
under my skin ) BUT they dont tell how much palldium,
rhodium, and nickle thet make. I think we are only
demonstrating to one another how hard it is to
establish the cost of one item when you are manufacturing
4 item simultaneously.
Anyway, I think rusplats platinum costs are pretty low.
In another post you said that their byproduct credit will
be 10 % higher this year but I suspect better since
palladium is up big time since last years average.
Do I dare to give you data on implats end 1996 report?
New one should be out soon - They give platinum
price received as Total revenue/Platinum produced only
and cost of making platinum as total costs/platinum
produced. They give you no way to estimate byproduct
credit and get results like 500$/oz plat revenue and
450$/oz platinum cost ( numbers are for example purposes
only )
I BELIEVE that implats cost are higher that rusplats
thus they should be more highly geared to an
increase in the platinum and palladium price.
What we SHOULD really be trying to do is estimate
the change in earnings/share this year over last year
for the various possible platinum investment alternatives.
Suppose I give you all the data for both implats
and rusplat/leplat/pp-rust and Northam. Maybe I can
construct the eps figure for last year for each.
You make the calculations - then I ask you lots of
questions - hehehehe - OK - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:46
Bernie New York Times>(New York Times): - John Disney:
Take it easy on the New York Times, John, they can't help it if the truth hurts.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:44
goldfinger he who has the gold makes the rules>(he who has the gold makes the rules): - Whoever you are DUMMY? THE FINGER? I apoligize. Somewhere things got off to a bad start. You wanted your handle to be DUMMY so I refer to you as being the same. If I knew you would be offended by it this would have never taken place. Sorry for the postings.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:35
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - NO ONE Thats right NO ONE has a crystal ball. This site was founded on the principals for individuals to express themselves and speculate into the future for entertainment purposes only. So have fun. This is not push and shove.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:33
The Finger @the finger to you>(@the finger to you): - Hey Goldfinker:
Lighten up! No need to babble on. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:27
Ron Drooling Bigwig Says Fed Will Keep Lid on Inflation>(Drooling Bigwig Says Fed Will Keep Lid on Inflation): - August 8, 1997
Fed Committed To Curbing Inflation
Filed at 6:34 p.m. EDT
By The Associated Press
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. ( AP ) -- A Federal Reserve policy-maker said Friday the central bank remains committed to keeping
inflation in check to keep the economy's seven-year expansion alive.
``We need to avoid making monetary policy mistakes which are usually caused by waiting too long to tap on the brakes,'' Jack Guynn,
president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said at a meeting of the Business Development Board of Palm Beach County. Guynn is
one of the regional Fed presidents who will have a vote Aug. 19 when the central bank decides whether to raise rates to cool off the
economy.
Financial markets stumbled Thursday and Friday amid fears that the economy is once more heating up to a point where the Fed will
tighten credit. The Dow Jones industrial average has fallen 228 points since hitting a record high Wednesday, in large part because
bond-market interest rates are rising on inflation jitters.
Guynn refused to discuss what the Fed might do.
He said he hoped the country would break the record of a 100-month economic expansion. At 76 months now, the current expansion is
the third longest since the end of World War II.
``I believe productivity is the key to the puzzle of our long-running economic expansion,'' he said. ``This good outcome should suggest
that we mustn't let inflation creep back up.''
He appeared to accept that the economy can achieve a mix of low inflation, low unemployment and strong growth.
``We need to continue to question and to test the conventional wisdom that seems to assume you can have either low inflation or strong
growth, but not both,'' he said.
Before his prepared remarks, Guynn warned the audience he might start to drool during his speech. He was recovering from oral surgery
and his mouth was still swollen -- but he offered another explanation.
``I feel good about the economy,'' he said with a smile, ``and it may be just a reaction.'' - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:21
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Hey you dummies, nobody said to hang on till the cows come home. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. Also, take control this is not a place for your frustrations. Get rest and plenty of exersize if you want to comunica...
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 01:08
Big Dummy to Little Dummy @Big Dummy.edu>(@Big Dummy.edu): - Okay you little dummy, here goes:
1. As interest rates rise, buyers eager to lock in low rates start to buy. Many have little to no money anyway and know that they won't be able to qualify for a bank loan as interest rates rise so they jump at the last chance to secure a mortgage loan. Thus more demand creates higher real estate prices.
2. Also, many people equate higher interest rates with rising inflation, thus the incentive to move money out of paper assets ( Stocks & Bonds, etc. ) into hard assets such as gold and real estate.
In the event of paper asset market meltdowns, then it's highly likely the big G would be stepping in to reliquify the economy by printing a massive amount of dollars on top of what they're already printing. And very probably hyper inflation would ensue with ever higher interest rates.
Yes, there would be a great number of foreclosures, but the Big G would continue to support the banks buy printing dollars and monetizing the debt. Sooner than later, the Big G's plan will have failed leading to a depression. Those with cash will continue to accumulate real estate at relative dirt cheap prices. The big dummies who bought at the onset of the inflation cycle will sooner than later lose their jobs and homes.
Can somone tell this Big Dummy what's wrong with this logic? - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:46
Ron with tricks like this, why is Greenie worried about inflation, hmmm?>(with tricks like this, why is Greenie worried about inflation, hmmm?): - 8/8/97 -- 5:38 PM
Yeltsin takes to airwaves to explain ruble reform
MOSCOW ( AP ) - President Boris Yeltsin assured Russians on Friday that plans to change Russia's ruble would be painless, but later
conceded the currency reform could increase the money supply. That, in turn, could spur inflation.
Still later in the day, a central bank spokesman appeared to contradict the president when he said the money supply would remain
constant.
Yeltsin announced plans earlier in the week to issue new ruble notes in January that will be worth 1,000 times as much as the old ones.
Once the plan goes into effect, old 1,000 ruble notes, which will remain in circulation for a time, will be worth 1 ruble.
``Nobody is threatened by anything,'' Yeltsin said in his regular weekly radio address. ``By launching this reform, we are clearly stating
that we have defeated inflation.''
But later Yeltsin told reporters in Moscow: ``There will be two banknotes on the market, the old and the new. In the overall supply, we'll
have more banknotes.''
The reform is intended to simplify Russia's currency and signal that years of three- and four-digit inflation are over. With the ruble now
worth 5,800 to the dollar, a trip to the grocery store can involve tens or hundreds of thousands of rubles.
Inflation has been brought down to about 12 percent a year, and the government figured it was time to bring the ruble back down to
earth, even if it meant a year or two of confusing, dual currencies.
However, increasing the money supply usually causes inflation. Yeltsin insisted that wouldn't be the case, saying the the extra currency
``will help us pay more wage and pension debts.''
A Central Bank official, Denis Kiselyov, told reporters the new banknotes would be issued in amounts equal to the old banknotes
withdrawn from the market. He said that would ensure a constant money supply, the Interfax news agency reported.
The Central Bank operates independently of the president, and has adopted opposing policies in the past. Yeltsin has also occasionally
issued off-the-cuff statements that aides have later been forced to correct or contradict.
After the new ruble notes are introduced, they are to circulate in tandem with old rubles until 2002.
``The reform will make the ruble stronger and more reliable,'' Yeltsin said in his radio address. ``Even now, many people are keeping
their savings in bank ruble accounts, because it's profitable.''
``I'm sure the time will come when Russians will be proud of their ruble and will not exchange it for any dollars,'' the president said.
Many Russians prefer to keep their savings in U.S. dollars.
Yeltsin's political foe, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, blasted the planned reform as a ``hasty, premature, poorly-planned and
insufficiently calculated'' step that would only make ``the poor grow poorer.''
``There has not been a single Yeltsin reform in the past few years after which the people's wallets did not become thinner,'' he said,
according to the Interfax news agency. ``The public did not trust this government and does not trust it now.'' - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:44
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Hey Dummy, Real estate is going north with all the money flowing out of equities. The fed will open the flood gates when the coming sell off ensues and maintain low interest rates for awhile in the near term. Interest rates will raise slowly over 2 years. They can't just step on the brakes otherwise all of us will be thrown overboard, unless they want a full blown depression. I think not.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:33
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - The gold is going to spike up to around $350 next week in the wake of financial trouble ahead, then settle back to around $335 for a few days until people digest if the trouble is really maybe not so serious. But, when things don't look good and start to get ugly, gold is going to be at $400 before you can say GO LONG GOLD. If your short say good bye to your bank account.
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:26
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Front: It's good to see that you have reassumed your previous handle. It is also good in the eyes of the many. ...... but what the hell do they know?
Also, your wrote: .....it's an honour that few achieve but many want. ....... If such honor also requires the recipient to wear the much touted but less revered mantle of Kitco Guru, I think not.
If you will recall, back in the spring, I made the hasty mistake of opining that gold had made, at least a short term bottom. The number was 357 as I recall. Or thereabouts. In retrospect, the mistake was not in forming the opinion but in announcing it to the masses. Especially you. ... :- ) )
As a single rose does not make a summer and 3 2 5 does not validate a sage, so also the announcement of a 2 day truce in a secular decline should not warrant special honors. Unfortunately, this was a time when the site was short of men insufficiently schooled in the merits of total silence. .... ( ie, the fish and the hook analogy. ) ... To my immediate and long lasting chagrine, I would learn that I was to be counted among that steadily diminishing number. An honor of a different sort, I suppose.
Nonetheless, though personally deemed unworthy, it was but a matter of milliseconds before the wisdom that ordinarily passes for reason in Chez Kitco forced me to don the accursed garment. It was much like the last man to be hanged. Who said: If it weren't for the honor, I'd just as soon pass on the whole thing. It has been said, by some fool or other, that some are born to greatness and others have greatness thrust upon them. Idle and useless rationalization of unavoidable circumstance is more like it.
As most are, the honor was but for a brief and shining moment but its effects lingered for some time. Not in its measured effect upon my moral character. The term reprobate will remain unassaillable from any quarter. Rather, it has more to do with its the subsequent effect on my feelings of personal well being. The honor and evidence of office had previously passed from head to head. A fact that shall be attested to, anon.
The long and the short of it is, that as a result of a mere 48 hours in the cloak of Kitco Guru, it cost me the better part of 1 fine troy ounce, in potions, ointments, solutions and ardent biocides of various kinds, to rid myself of unwanted houseguests. Some were viewed with wonder by the entymology dept. at OSU. A few had previously escaped the catalogue. More than a few were seldom seen, outside of brothels in benighted regions.
I present this report, not in an contempt of my fellows, pillars of the community all, but rather to offer empirical evidence, attesting to the duality of man. Or at all events, most men. ie, we all have a dark side, don't we. But, I am distracted from the main topic.
In conclusion, I am hesitant to include George Cole's name in a report of such personal nature. For while no one is more deserving, than George, of the holding high honors and superior office as designated Kitco Guru; he is also entitled to hold said office alone.
Please pass that moth eaten rag through an acid bath before you send it to him. - Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:26
dummy @rising prices and rates>(@rising prices and rates): - Aurphile: please explain to this dummy how can real estate demand rise causing price escalation if interest rates rise also. wont rising interest rates dampen real estate demand and depress prices? what am I missing here?
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:24
Gold Bull @I told you so!>(@I told you so!): - RJ:
I know you're not feeling well today, so let me express it for you:
OOOUUUUUCCCCCHHHHHH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Sat Aug 09 1997 00:07
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Niner, it may be a tease. However, this thing could unwind very fast and take all of you by surprise before you got time to think about it. The train is leaving the station and if your not in early you may not get onboard. A good example are those that missed the platinum market waiting for lower prices. The low could already be in on the gold, meanwhile most are waiting for lower prices. I say if you want in GET IN because you ain't getting in when it runs away from you.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 23:44
Niner Today was a Teaser . . .>(Today was a Teaser . . .): - By midday, the charts looked favorable and excited a few Kitcoites. I feel it was simply a bit of a tease. A reason ( excuse? ) for the Dow to climb to higher levels next week. See, the Dow can drop 200 points intraday and still regain and continue to perform . . . By the same token, gold bugs saw the near-330 test many have been waiting for. It too was a teaser, gold will lose today's small gain _early_ next week, IMO.
The Dow will see yet another strong upsurge, keeping in line with its current exponential rise. Gold is headed toward 300 no matter what we would wish. The sooner it happens ( further gold decline ) , the sooner we get to experience Phase III - - Perhaps a lower price still, but an ultimate reversal in gold price.
nomercy, your optimism is just a trifle premature by my reckoning . . . I would tend to wait a bit before determining that the gold bottom was secure . . .
Been researching my next airplane buy in anticipation,
Best Regards, Niner
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 23:34
George S. Cole fireworks>(fireworks): - Steve Puetz and WW: I sincerely hope you are right about near-term fireworks in the gold market. I am now out of stocks entirely, but have a big position in gold funds. But my best judgement is that it will take considerable time to breach $400. But when we do, $500 or even $600 will follow very shortly.
Why is this stock market break different from the past drops that proved to be buying opportunities? Because the dollar plunged and gold surged. This is the first stock and bond market break to be accompanied by surging gold prices. Those who buy this dip will bitterly regret it.
Captain Bill at the Privateer, while still not declaring a gold bull, is becoming more optimistic. He accurately points out that all recent SUSTAINED upward moves in gold prices ( 1973-1980 and 1985-87 ) were accompanied by rising interest rates. The brief but unsustainable 1993 bull occurred in the context of strong bond and stock markets. This gold bull will be much stronger and will last much longer. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 23:30
Lurker waiting room>(waiting room): - To Panda:
Regarding your 22 minute fill order @ Schwab......
Moreover, big brokers often have a small inventory of actively traded stocks they make a market in and can effectively cut-off
( cross ) an order before it hits the exchanges. A brokerage house can also program its computer to recognize when two orders
flowing in from their regional offices make a pairing that can be summarily crossed. Generally, the broker keeps the spread, but
some brokers give the advantage to the customer. Most notable in this respect is Schwab's new no spread trading system
which crosses customer orders for participants. Instead of executing your order on the normal markets immediately, Schwab
routes it to their waiting room. If there is another order there that mates with yours the trade is immediate - if not, you sit
there until that mating order shows up. In either case, Schwab takes its commission and splits the spread with the two
customers. It remains to be seen how well this idea works. Evaluating the potential for a delayed trade and the price volatility
of the stock itself versus the spread savings will make it difficult for an individual to decide whether to participate.
Entire article located: http://www.invest.faq.com/articles/trade-price-impr.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 23:29
Lurker waiting room>(waiting room): - To Panda:
Regarding your 22 minute fill order @ Schwab......
Moreover, big brokers often have a small inventory of actively traded stocks they make a market in and can effectively cut-off
( cross ) an order before it hits the exchanges. A brokerage house can also program its computer to recognize when two orders
flowing in from their regional offices make a pairing that can be summarily crossed. Generally, the broker keeps the spread, but
some brokers give the advantage to the customer. Most notable in this respect is Schwab's new no spread trading system
which crosses customer orders for participants. Instead of executing your order on the normal markets immediately, Schwab
routes it to their waiting room. If there is another order there that mates with yours the trade is immediate - if not, you sit
there until that mating order shows - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 23:29
Lurker waiting room>(waiting room): - To Panda:
Regarding your 22 minute fill order @ Schwab......
Moreover, big brokers often have a small inventory of actively traded stocks they make a market in and can effectively cut-off
( cross ) an order before it hits the exchanges. A brokerage house can also program its computer to recognize when two orders
flowing in from their regional offices make a pairing that can be summarily crossed. Generally, the broker keeps the spread, but
some brokers give the advantage to the customer. Most notable in this respect is Schwab's new no spread trading system
which crosses customer orders for participants. Instead of executing your order on the normal markets immediately, Schwab
routes it to their waiting room. If there is another order there that mates with yours the trade is immediate - if not, you sit
there until that mating order shows up. In either case, Schwab takes its commission and splits the spread with the two
customers. It remains to be seen how well this idea works. Evaluating the potential for a delayed trade and the price volatility
of the stock itself versus the spread savings will make it difficult for an individual to decide whether to participate.
Entire article located: http://www.invest.faq.com/articles/trade-price-impr.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:52
aurophile (>((): - To summarize briefly my analysis of the Kondratieff Wave for our times: gold up, interest rates up, stocks up and down, consumer and producer prices up, economy up. Real estate up. Enjoy.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:38
DJ &#%$&*#%$#(&@&%>(&#%$&*#%$#(&@&%): - John Disney - Time to take a break! One more time.
Total revenue 3780MR less by-product offset of 1600MR yields 2180MR of platinum revenue from 1.5Moz = 1453R/oz = $323/oz.
Now this does seem too low. Comments?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:27
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - The Dow had its largest intra-day decline since March 1996...and Sunday night the carnage should continue in Hong Kong as the Hang Seng has been mirroring the Dow recently....Europe will open down but will the dipsters turn things around in New York or will the plunge accelerate
...It's been know to happen on a MONDAY....Important economic stats out next week are: Wed. ( Retail sales ) ...Wed. ( PPI ) ....Thurs. ( CPI ) ....some strong numbers and things could really get WILD...Gold's action on Sunday night should tell us a few things on its near-term direction... - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:18
panda @>(@): - Donald @ 20:17 -- Regarding the world wide stock slip, it was probably due to the primary dealers in the thirty year bonds not being able to unload the paper that spooked the markets world wide. The demand wasn't there. In order to create demand, you have a 'sale'. Prices marked down accordingly, interest rates move up accordingly... Stocks have to compete with bonds, and at these rarified levels, nose bleeds are common. Couple that with a rate hike/inflation fears in Great Briton...
Let's face it, if you bought Intel at $100, where would your stop loss be set at? Now if I could just do that with gold stocks... - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:16
DJ Question answered>(Question answered): - John Disney - I think I have answered my own question. Since you show a cost of sales of 3190MR, this must include the cost of the by-products. Thus the revenue of 3780MR must include the proceeds of the sale of by products. Since we agree that the by-product proceeds is about 1600MR, platinum revenue must have been 2189MR or $353/oz., which is acually lower than I expected.
Assume:
1. Same production rate in 1998
2. Prices for by-products 10% higher
3. Average PL price $425
Then, income for 1998 could be up 40% from 1997 -- an interesting number. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:06
panda @piles of cash>(@piles of cash): - nomercy @19:41 -- The last big bank failures in Japan prompted the same type of 'display'. The cash ( YEN notes ) were piled high along the counter where the tellers stood. This was to 'inspire' confidence in the depositors that the money was 'there'.
Of course, it was still warm and smelled funny as it had just come off of the presses. :- ) ) - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:04
Front To DJ>(To DJ): -
I re-read your earlier post agreeing that George should be honored. So to make it official, we need to hear form Earl for his vote. It can't be transsfered without total agreement as it's an honour that few achieve but many want. In that vein, the rules require that only former winners of the award may nominate or post the newest winner. That in effect, will eliminate the rabble from nominating one of lower statute than previously required ... ( nose must be firnly stuck in the air when typing the last statement! ( :- ) ) . So, if the Duke of Earl would kindly give his agreement, we may proceed with the coronation. If not, tough noockey!
What say you Earl ?
TTFN - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 22:04
Miro to Roebear and Donald>(to Roebear and Donald): - Roebear: look at my today's post Fri Aug 08 1997 10:20
( Links to all Senate Testimony on Y2K without downloading )
it contains links to the Y2K file you are referring to ( and some others )
You don't need Acrobat to read it. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:57
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - George Cole: However......... Gold is likely to exceed $400 before 1998 begins, and the bear market in stocks is likely to begin with a crash.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:56
Barb-ette @barbadoe ranch>(@barbadoe ranch): - Louis Ruekeyser on People's Broadcast System replaced tonight in central Texas by Peter, Paul & Mary and some animated fuzzy things. An omen or a blessing? Go gold!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:56
Roebear @Chocolatetown>(@Chocolatetown): - DONALD, From this URL http://www.bis.org/review/index.htm I downloaded the Fed Y2K file into my hard drive. I think you must have adobe acrobat as it is a pdf file. It ran ok with acrobat on my hard drive. If this doesn't help let me know, I'm not much of a computer nerd but I know some good ones at work AND I will be working all weekend.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:54
Front To D.J>(To D.J): -
DJ your post of:
Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:41
DJ ( @Front ) :
Front - Better than being front to Back!
Actually you don't know how close to the truth you are about how one get's a nickname!
TTFN - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:53
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - George Cole: I agree with your 19:55 posting.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:50
Front To Donald:>(To Donald:): -
Actually Donald, the one that comes to mind immediately was the one the other day that had all about asia in it. It had a short paragragh about each country i.e. Malaysia, Singapore etc. and talked about the devaluation of the THAI monies and the effect on the other areas. Does that ring a bell?
TTFN - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:45
DJ Will these questions never cease?>(Will these questions never cease?): - John Disney - Head is now fine. My mistake was that in your Aug 07 - 03:52 you said the costs in Rand/ton ARE after subtracting by-product revenue. I assumed you were refering to the 200R/ton you mentioned in your previous post. Now that this is cleared up, all the numbers make sense. For the record, by my calculations, the cost net of by-product revenue is actually 96 R/ton. This is the factor of 2 I was looking for -- and NO! I wasn't acusing you of making a factor of 2 mistake. I have more faith in you than that. Just needed to find out where the inconsistancy was. Thanks for your help.
However, your revenue numbers raise another question. 3780MR in revenue divided by 1.5Moz of platinum = 2520 R/oz. at 4.5 R/$ = $560/oz. Since the spot price of PL averaged less than $400/oz. in their FY1997, how did they achieve such a high price? Any clues? ( I assume the income from the by-product metals show as a reduction in cost, not as revenue. ) More importantly, however they did it, can they do it again in FY1998?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:45
panda @Bond>(@Bond): - Thirty year bond index;
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:44
Front To Donald:>(To Donald:): -
Donald, Thanks for the information. I got started into the FTSE by following the links and am now awaiting a booklet from the FTSE exchange on their activities. Too bad I don't have unlimited access. Boy could I enjoy those sites! Thanks again...
TTFN - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - FRONT: I have been searching for the European stock exchange analysis and can't find it. Is that what you are looking for? It may not be written yet. I think the weekend schedule is different. Still looking.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:24
jeb pugsley@alaska.net>(pugsley@alaska.net): - Mike Sheller: I hold a substantial amount of Platinum and missed in selling on the last two run ups.
I would like to understand your statement more clearly. Is it your read that Platinum will run again next week, then turn down [this quick transit ( up? ) ebbs].
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:12
D.A. a.little.truth.in.Malaysia>(a.little.truth.in.Malaysia): - Nomercy:
A lot of successful currency traders follow trends. One of the reasons that orderly trends evolve in the currency markets is because central banks and politicians fight them. This has the effect of slowing down currency moves so that more people can pile in. Even little old traders like ourselves managed to score a few ringits. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - FRONT: Here is another good source. You have to hunt for the English language sites. Some are English but not marked.
http://www.yahoo.com/News_and_Media/Newspapers/Regional/Countries/ - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:00
nomercy heavy paper came into gold ring as Dow was around 8075>(heavy paper came into gold ring as Dow was around 8075): - ``Gold is still only about $10.00 an ounce off its 12-year lows, but the bullion market has absorbed huge supply in recent
weeks and there is a feeling that today could be the start of some asset price deflation, so my own feeling is gold could edge
higher from here,'' he said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/y0023_z00_41.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 21:00
Donald @Home>(@Home): - FRONT: They come from all over. Some of the best ones are at this URL. You need to register but it is free. I will post another also.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/ - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:57
ron Jett rjett@mindspring.com>(rjett@mindspring.com): - there are some gold charts ready if anyone wants to take a look.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/ - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:55
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Proton: Car maker warns on ringgit
decline
FRIDAY AUGUST 8 1997
By James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur
Earnings at Proton, the maker of Malaysia's national car, will be hit by
the depreciation of the ringgit against the Japanese yen, Mr Mohammed
Saleh Sulong, the company's chairman, said yesterday.
The warning was one of the first acknowledgements by a Malaysian
corporate leader that the ringgit's recent decline against the US dollar and
other main currencies was already affecting results. It also demonstrated
Proton's dependence on components imported from Japan.
Mr Saleh said that Proton's profits this year would grow, but not at the
126 per cent rate achieved in the previous 12 months, when pre-tax profits
jumped to M$1.03bn ( US$390m ) .
Proton buys most of its engines from Mitsubishi Motors, the Japanese
carmaker which has a significant equity stake in Proton. Some 20 per cent
of its costs are denominated in yen, which has appreciated 7 per cent
against the ringgit this year. The yen's depreciation, by 13 per cent last
year, was one of the main reasons for Proton's surge in profits.
Other complex components, which Proton sources locally, contain parts
that come from Japan. Although Proton does not directly bear the cost of
these, industry analysts said the yen's climb would complicate a campaign
to reduce the cost at which Proton buys components from local suppliers.
Much of the increase in last year's profits came from cutting these costs.
The adverse currency movements coincide with signs of a slowdown in car
sales and a loss of share for Proton in the domestic market. There is a
general consensus that in the second half of the year, the economy is
becoming harder, said Mr Saleh.
In May, Proton's market share fell to 60 per cent, compared with 65 per
cent for all of last year and a historical peak of 74 per cent in 1993.
Mr Saleh noted a slight decline in market share, but said this might be a
temporary phenomenon. It is not time to push the panic button, he said. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:51
nomercy China-Iran>(China-Iran): - From Iranian Press
Chinese Officials for Promotion of Tehran-Beijing Relations
TEHRAN The outgoing Iranian Ambassador to China Hossein Mirfakhar held separate meetings with
ranking Chinese officials in Beijing on Tuesday. In the meetings, the Chinese officials expressed pleasure
on promotion of Iran-China bilateral relations particularly in political and economic sectors. Chinese
Minister of Supervision Cao Qingze said in a meeting that the two countries' cooperation in matters related
to inspection expanded rapidly during the recent years and it had left positive impact in the control of
possible violations of the government agencies of the respective countries. He pointed out that he would
pay a visit to Islamic Republic of Iran in order to confer with the Iranian high ranking officials. In another
meeting, the head of the Foreign Policy Commission at the chinese National People's Congress Julian
called for further promotion of relations between the parliaments of the two countries and welcomed
expansion of relations in political and economic sectors between Islamic Iran and China. The head of the
Friendship Group of the Chinese People's Congress Man Lian Ken in a separate meeting indicated that the
relation between Iran-China parliaments played a significant role in promotion of bilateral relation - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:47
Front To Donald :>(To Donald :): -
Donald,
Each day you post the most informative items. I would like to know where you're getting them from. The items I'm talking about are the long ones that contain information about each country or area. Thanks in advance...
TTFN - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:45
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Rupee devaluation fear keeps foreign investors away from
bond market
HARIS ANWAR
KARACHI ( August 8 ) : While in the face of a ballooning
current-account deficit Pakistan badly needs foreign investment has not yet
started to-flow into the currency debt market despite complete removal of
all taxes on such investment, to the disappointment of the economic
managers.
Given Pakistan recent history of large devaluations, long -term
investors are reluctant to venture into the bond market, according to me
analysts.
Government, in its capital market package last May, had withdrawn
Withholding Tax on foreign investment in debt instruments to attract more
funds which would have ultimately resulted in lowering the cost of
government borrowing.
Analysts said that foreign investors were not willing to invest in the
primary bond market out of fear of currency devaluation. As supply side
measures were expected to swell the trade deficit further, investors
expected the rupee to come under renewed pressure after the first quarter
of this fiscal year, they added.
I expect 25-40 percent increase in imports if supply-side measures
work, and this will exert pressure on SBP to devalue the rupee
significantly, an economist at a foreign bank said.
He said before entering the local bond market, any investor would
examine the country's currency risk. If SBP kept to the course of 'crawling
peg' devaluation, and government received the first tranche of ESAF on
time, foreign portfolio investment would definitely come.
Pakistan equity market has witnessed huge foreign investment
recently, but investors did not enter the bond market.
Foreign investors are very much interested in short-term
participation in the secondary bond market where yield on one-month
STFBs is 13.5 percent, but the rupee conversion spread, which is now
around 26 paisa, is discouraging them', Naz Chohan, money analyst at
KASB said.
Foreign investment in Pakistan equity and bond markets can only be
made through Special Convertible Rupee Account ( SCRA ) , where dollar
buying and selling spread is now around 0.7 percent. This comes to around
8.4 percent per annum. After the adjustment, of 8.4 percent, what would
be left of the 13.5 percent return on STFB, would be hardly an attractive
yield when US treasuries bonds were offering 6.05 percent per annum.
Naz further said the continuous fall in yield on six-month STFBs was
another reason, which kept investors away from these debt instruments.
The yield on six-month short-term federal bonds ( STFBs ) has come down
from 17.5 percent since May,1997 to 14.9 percent on Wednesday's
auction.
Foreign investment in the local bond market was allowed a couple
of years ago, but Withholding Tax as high as 60 percent was so
prohibitive, that virtually no deals worth the name were reported so far.
Given historically low interest rates in wealthy countries, emerging
market bonds called 'Zunks' are very much attractive for foreign money
managers. Last year governments and companies in emerging markets
issued below investment grade bonds worth about $74 billion. J. P.
Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index also rose to 39.3 percent last yea - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:42
nomercy Malasya>(Malasya): - Now we're told...it wasn't only Soros but a 'Wolf pak' of US hedge funds ( 2000 ) who jumped on the bandwagon...and they're still hungry!
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970809001843075&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2571 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:38
nomercy Malasyia>(Malasyia): - Ringgit braces for
renewed attacks from
speculators
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970809001843028&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2556 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - DAVID: That is obviously an accurate dictionary. It did not say that a bank was a place to save money. They just receive it.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:33
nomercy Thailand - arm twisting for rescue loan>(Thailand - arm twisting for rescue loan): - IMF - Japan - Asean countries - they have to deliver on their promised rescue - some countries are reluctant uuhhmmmmm!
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970809001843049&top=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2869
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:32
nailz CHEAPER YEN.....>(CHEAPER YEN.....): - DONALD......Cheaper yen/dollar good for foreign trade...More exports for Japan.. More exports = more profits = good for Japaneese business.......= stock rise....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Kenya: World Bank warns about
corruption
SATURDAY AUGUST 9 1997
By Michela Wrong in Nairobi and Michael Holman in London
Kenya came under renewed pressure yesterday when the World Bank
warned that unless its government tackled corruption issues which had
triggered a cut-off in International Monetary Fund lending, Bank aid would
also be substantially reduced.
In the toughest message from the World Bank since the IMF last week
suspended its $220m ( Ł135m ) loan programme, senior officials said the
institution took the issues that prompted the IMF decision extremely
seriously and was absolutely behind the Fund.
Kenya was relying on World Bank funding to renovate its dilapidated road
network, including the Mombasa to Nairobi highway, and modernise its
energy sector struggling to meet demand.
Now that the signal has been sent, we hope the Kenyan authorities are
going to aggressively tackle the issues of economic governance, said an
official. It is in their interests to get round a table and settle these issues.
Failing vigorous action, World Bank aid will be substantially reduced.
The warning was likely to further undermine the Kenyan shilling, which
regained some ground yesterday but has lost nearly 16 per cent of its value
in reaction to the IMF's no confidence verdict.
World Bank officials said in the circumstances it would now be impossible
to disburse a $71.6m structural adjustment credit, due this year but already
delayed by Kenya's failure to satisfy specific conditions dealing with
privatisation and energy sector management. While some individual
infrastructure projects might be completed for contractual reasons,
projects not yet declared effective would remain on hold until IMF
governance concerns were met.
Contradicting a recent statement by Kenya's energy ministry that the
breakdown in relations with the IMF would not directly affect power
sector funding, Bank officials said a Sh7.5bn ( Ł75m ) energy sector project
was among those now unlikely to go ahead.
The strong World Bank statement came as advocates of constitutional
reform maintained pressure on President Daniel arap Moi, staging a
national one-day strike to support demands for legal and constitutional
changes before elections expected this year.
The protest turned ugly in Nairobi, where members of a 1,000-strong
crowd that had gathered in the central Uhuru park set upon a man who
pulled a knife and beat to death a policeman who had infiltrated the rally in
plain clothes.
Supporters later marched through the centre of town, where the vast
majority of traders had closed their shops for fear of looting, breaking
store windows, setting up barricades and throwing stones. Although the
government had declared the strike illegal, the security forces kept a low
profile, apparently wary of a repeat of July 7, when television images of
riot police clubbing unarmed demonstrators shattered Kenya's reputation
as a peaceful democracy.
The low turnout for the rally, and mixed responses in a scattering of main
towns, appeared to reflect divisions in the opposition movement, which has
recently split over the issue of whether to accept Mr Moi's pledges on
constitutional and legal reform or hold out for more far-reaching changes.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:24
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Donald, regarding 'saying bad things about banks', and thus breaking the law; I looked up Webster's definition ( s ) of 'bank': ( a ) bank - an establishment for receiving, lending, or, sometimes, issuing MONEY ( -my caps ) ; ( b ) bank - a long mound or heap.
Now, considering definition ( a ) ,since there is no bank, that I know of, anywhere in the world, that is receiving, lending, &/or issuing real money, to anyone, anywhere; I guess we can feel free to say any nasty
thing about those institutions of pretense, fraud and deceit, that we care to. And considering definition ( b ) , I can't think of anything nasty to say about 'heaps and mounds', unless they are heaps and mounds of bull-s___. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:23
nomercy China-S & N Korea-U.S.- talks unexpectedly break off>(China-S & N Korea-U.S.- talks unexpectedly break off): - AGENCIES in Washington and New York
The effort by the two Koreas, China and the United
States to set up peace talks aimed at formally
ending the Korean War broke off unexpectedly
after failing to resolve differences over topics the
discussions would cover.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970809023013036&top=asia&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2563 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:21
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: The guest on NBR tonight was Eugene Pieroni. He gave a reco for Newmont Gold and Newmont Mining. That might help the XAU on Monday.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:17
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NAILZ: I just pulled up the Yahoo International stocks. There were 15 countries down more than 1% today. Seven of them were close to 2%. Most of those losses were in Europe before the US even opened. Something else spooked them. Mabye the 71 point slide Thursday? Why on earth did Japan rise 128? I can't see a reason for that. Another point. Greenspan has his hands full with the bond market. That keeps him from playing games with stocks as he likely did in 1987.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:06
nailz ALL IN PLAY>(ALL IN PLAY): - DONALD...I expect next week to be a very volitile market ( stocks, currencies, bonds and metals particularly ) for many of the foreigns as well...Many of the foreign stock markets showed volitility today as did many currencies..It should be worse for most of next week...All combined domestic and foreign will come into play next week and yes, you are right, I expect the domestics to have the greatest influence...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 20:02
WW @NE>(@NE): - I respectfully disagree with GSC This is D-Day the Battle of Stalingrad was won in the early 90s ie 93. When this bubble bursts it will burst. Even GSC is cautious b/c of the spin. When the overseas boys/girls ease up on their buying it is sayanara baby!! God forbid they become actual sellers of US paper and buyers of gold!!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:58
Byron @ Now What:>(@ Now What:): - Well, got that 98 XAU resistence area out of the way. However, I did not get my predicted 105 more or less for the Friday close. Well, I guess I can wait one more day. It's always good to have something to look forward to. .....BJ: Keep on buying. In a few weeks, current prices will look like big bargins in retrospect. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:55
George Cole the future>(the future): - Those who ignored my warning not to be short gold when the dollar tops out paid the price today.
Richard Burke: Predicting the market's day to day movements has never been my bag.
But let me say this. The odds are around 90% that stocks and the dollar entered a bear market today and gold a bull market. But only the naive can expect the stock bulls and gold bears to roll over and play dead. Like the Nazis after the battle of Stalingrad, we can expect the paperhangers to bitterly contest every foot of ground and launch fierce counterattacks. Stocks are not going straight down and gold is not going straight up. But for the first time in many a moon the trend is OUR friend.
Steve Puetz could be right about the market crashing in October. But a long grinding bear market also is quite possible. As for gold, despite all the efforts of Greenspan, Rubin.Merrill Lynch, Andy Smith, etc., the $400 line in the sand will be broken decisively during 1998 after a difficult journey fraught with perils. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NOMERCY: The guard is not there to guard the money, it is worthless, he is supposed to make sure no one steals the table.
If they are going to censor everything why bother? Did you know there is a 1938 law ( US ) on the books that can send you to jail for saying anything bad about a bank, even if it is true? - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:52
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Larryn: You had better prepare for deflation.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:49
Larryn well said>(well said): - WW... Well said. I don't see the coming problem as inflation/deflation, etc. It is an international currency problem... and interest rates and gold are just indications of investors' desire or lack of desire to hold our currency. We are beginning to see that there are fewer who want to hold our debt at these rates.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:48
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Shek: I no longer allow re-prints of my newsletters. Paying subscribers have been upset about the free postings. If you are interested in information about the Steve Puetz Letter or my book ( Total Collapse -- making the case for deflation ) e-mail me at bpuetz@holli.com.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:44
BJ @home>(@home): - Sometimes I can't help but wonder how many people like myself check this board every afternoon yet rarely ever post any messages. As a small PM investor I don't know as much about economics as most of you seem to. I do however, have a deep mistrust of the government which inclines me to hoard all the gold and silver I can get my hands on. I can't help but feel like a fool sometimes as metals seem to always be going down. Fortunately I have this site to keep my spirits up. I can always find an arguement here to convince me to buy a few more ounces!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:43
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NAILZ: You seem to be focusing on domestic news. I would think that we are currently more under the influence of foreign factors. Weak Asian currencies are requiring Japan to sell T-Bonds to bail out their natural trading partners etc. Domestic is important but not the main issue right now. Asian news is REALLY BAD.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:41
nomercy donald- Thailand- getting visally creative>(donald- Thailand- getting visally creative): - Donald...you'll get a chuckle out of this...not as good as Tort but..amusing nevertheless...
A huge stack of 1,000-baht
and 500-baht banknotes is
put on standby at the
Bangkok Metropolitan Bank
head office to meet
depositor withdrawals.
Panicky withdrawals at the
bank branches subsided
yesterday as more depositors regained confidence in the
bank's financial stability.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/home.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:39
Shek home>(home): - Steve Puetz,
When is your next opinion/editorial/analysis on Gold Eagle going to appear? - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:38
gary gcox@wwn.net>(gcox@wwn.net): - great chart at bottom of article shows correlation of three market crashes,
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/marketre.htm hope you all enjoy
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:36
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor>(The Astrological Investor): - Mars conjuncting NYSE Neptune today through Monday has evidenced its power, as predicted earlier, with Platinum. Pt has taken gold along with it, and Mars has shaken the foundations of the stock market. Watch Monday, after which this quick transit ebbs. Watch and wait.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:35
Tortfeasor Belated joke of the day>(Belated joke of the day): - I have been so excited about gold going up in the face of the dwindling DOW that I have neglected to post a bit of humor to commemorate this momentous event. That being said, here it is for what it is worth:
The internationally reported Russian space station docking mishap was
very embarrassing to both the US and Russian space agencies. Both
sides quickly issued terse statements denying fault in what could have
been a tragedy resulting in lost lives. Each country immediately launched
independent investigations to ascertain the actual cause of the mishap.
After intensive study, both investigative teams arrived at the same
conclusion: Objects in the MIR are closer than they appear. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:31
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 24.31 tonight
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:30
Savage ++++>(++++): - NAILZ: My friend, I suspect that you're right on. I'm reminded that birth is via contractions...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:14
ww @ne>(@ne): - Foreigners buy treasuries and stks for last 3 years creating bull mkt in trade/ budget deficit country. They continue this as it is in their best interests UNTIL the forces of supply and demand takeover as today. The PMs are the most undervalued asset and should benefit from the mass amount of paper created. Five years ago we owned our own debt now it is owned forty percent by foreign sources and continued purchasing by these sources is needed to keep things in equilibrium. Keeping the dollar strong is NECESSARY yet tough since it is in gross over supply and US assets are both over owned worldwide and very overvalued. In this case what the feds do is of little importance. Owners of US assets can not withstand a declining dollar and declining real prices in the local mkt. This is how BUBBLES BURST!! FORGET THE CPI AND PPI!!!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 19:04
Savage +>(+): - PUETZ: re your 18:23 question...I'm sorry I cannot concur because I didn't see what evidently others ( may ) have. I live in northern Indiana and travel a lot and unless the problem is hidden ( like disease ) , I look for a barn buster. Of course, I've been expecting gold to go to the moon also ( shows you what I know...ouch! )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:53
nailz BOTTOM IN?>(BOTTOM IN?): - SAVAGE....I think you will see a lot of volitility next week...There are all kinds of numbers to be reported next week...PPI,WPI, Retail, and a bunch of quarterly reports. I think traders in most all the pits will use those numbers from day-to-day to churn the markets...I think you will see numbers higher than that and lower than that all in the same week....I would brace up if I were in naked futures in a lot of markets next week..especially $,Y,PMs, bonds,OEX...Is the bottom in for the PMs?.....I think not....But it is getting more interesting by the day and the volitility necessary to see the bottom is definately showing....Expect more volitility...To specifically answer your question, yes $329,50 spot will be broken next week on the upside if just on intraday.....IMHOAFWIW....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:49
Savage ++>(++): - APH: What do your technicals tell you?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:31
RT @wah street weak>(@wah street weak): - wonder how loueeeeyyy baby will explain today's action on wall street week tonight?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:26
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - If this is the top for the Dow, the upcoming crash should occur between September 16th and October 10th. It looks like another October crash may be in the cards.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:23
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Savage: Regarding your crop tour through Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio -- which areas looked best and worst? Some say the Indiana crop is a disaster. They say the worst areas are southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. Do you concur?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:21
panda @!>(@!): - Earl -- :- ) ) :- ) ) LOL! Dirges, now really! :- ) ) :- ) )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:12
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - George Cole: Here's one for you. The weekly chart on the dollar index. A shooting star to complete the week. Coupled with the bond market action it should portend interesting things to come. .... At least for those of us who are fond of humming funeral dirges.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 18:10
Savage ++>(++): - NAILZ: Do you think spot will bounce off the 329 range roof? Why or why not? Thanks.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 17:57
vronsky WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Part - II>(WE HAVE BEEN HAD - Part - II): - The devil was not in the gold window. The devil was in the overvalued
dollar. Tlaga walks us through dollar’s declining purchasing power &
role of gold from 1920-1973:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 17:56
Savage >(): - RJ: RJ what is your opinion on the market action today? Are you still shorting the rallies? ( this is not meant to be sarcasm, I am sincerely soliciting your thoughts ) Something in my gut tells me to be cautious. ( even though I am NOT a bear; I am a gold bull who has been wounded before ...once bitten, twice cautious )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 17:52
Byron @ One Happy Cat:>(@ One Happy Cat:): - Donald: CATalyst in the corner purring like a kitten : )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 17:46
Lazarus the_cave>(the_cave): -
Testing - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 17:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Foreign buying of Korean stocks plunges 70%
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0809/m0809b01.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Make sure you keep that catalyst in a safe place in case we need it again.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:47
Miz How about gold?>(How about gold?): - Does the Bank of Japan buy gold?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:40
Byron @ Watch That $$$:>(@ Watch That $$$:): - Dollar vs Yen. Dollar down -3.73 yen or 3.1%!!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:26
Byron @ HUI Fan:>(@ HUI Fan:): - Hi Panda: Hui did end up closer to the high of the day than did Xau : ) ) ) .... TVX up +9.72% today.: ) My biggest holdings. Me happy.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:18
nomercy T-Bills (Japan selling?)>(T-Bills (Japan selling?)): - Traders said heavy hedge fund sales, rumors of central bank and Japanese selling, and auction-related sales exacerbated the
dim technical picture.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/y0004_z00_15.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:18
slick @>(@): - Panda, Thanks for your insights and excellent charts
Slick. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:13
panda @charts later....>(@charts later....): - slick -- Nirvana was a mirage? See my 8:01 post this A.M. regarding bonds. The market participants are/were expecting 4.?% rates on the long bond. That is in serious question now. In fact, the fear is now of a rate increase. With so much money on the table, and people waiting for a capital gains tax cut... I'd take the money and run! Remember, it's better to pay short term cap gains on a profit than take a tax write off on a portion of a loss! I think Confucius told me this once, but he also said that I never listened to him either! There was good volume in the gold stocks today. The HUI and XAU indexes pulled back a little at the close, but hey, they had a good run today. Also, next week sees inflation data release. Plenty for the bond boys to worry about, especially if their assumptions are wrong.....
One more thing, I would've like to have see the HUI do a little better today. I guess you can't have everything. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:13
Richard Burke @relieved>(@relieved): - To All: I was concerned less than an hour ago with volume for ABX being low, but the closing volume made it over 2 million. Good sign. TVX responded very well today price-wise with good volume. However, GCZ7 had run down to closing time. Any concerns about the late GCZ7 action?
George Cole: Do you see another DOW rally which may or may not exceed this last top before everything tanks? I got out of all my mutual funds yesterday, but am still holding some non-gold stocks. I am heavy on gold stocks. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:09
nomercy Microsoft>(Microsoft): - Microsoft anticipates slower growth for interactive media
group
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Reuter Information Service
REDMOND, Wash. ( August 8, 1997 1:45 p.m. EDT ) - Microsoft Corp.'s money-losing interactive media group will expand
its work force by 15 to 20 percent in the next year, down from a more than 40 percent increase last year, a company executive
said Friday.
Denise White, director of new ventures, declined in an interview to say how many people worked in the group, which includes
online services such as the Microsoft Network and Slate magazine, as well as entertainment and information products like the
Encarta CD-ROM encyclopedia.
Overall, Microsoft employed 22,276 people when its fiscal year ended June 30, an increase of 8 percent from a year earlier.
White said interactive media growth is slowing after a year that saw the launch of major online ventures, including the Expedia
travel service and Sidewalk, a guide to local arts and entertainment that has been rolled out in four cities.
We were investing in a number of different areas, White said. We started seven new online products.
Over the coming year, executives of the group plan to identify the most promising opportunities, such as games, and stabilize
the work force, White said.
She also said the group would reduce the number of contract workers it employs now that many of its major products are
beyond the launch phase.
Last month, group vice president Pete Higgins told analysts and reporters the interactive media businesses would lose
hundreds of millions of dollars over the coming year and Microsoft would begin tightening the screws on investments.
But make no mistake, he said. We continue to be very serious about this business, and serious about winning.
White pointed out that 15 percent is still a really sizable growth for a group to sustain.
The group does not include one of Microsoft's most visible media ventures, the MSNBC joint news venture with NBC.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:06
nomercy Union calls for strike vote as newspaper changes ownership>(Union calls for strike vote as newspaper changes ownership): - Is it coincidence or a 'sign' of labor unrest?
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 Scripps-McClatchy Western
MONTEREY, Calif. ( August 8, 1997 12:28 p.m. EDT ) -- A new publisher of the Monterey County Herald was announced
Wednesday and the papers' employees union -- fearful a pending ownership change will mean job losses for its members --
called for a strike authorization vote.
Pat Keil, 40, senior vice president of sales marketing at St. Paul Pioneer Press will be the Herald' s publisher when
Knight-Ridder Inc. completes its acquisition of the paper later this month.
Keil was introduced by Knight-Ridder executives to about 150 Herald employees at a tense afternoon staff meeting that was
dominated by employee questions about the future of their jobs.
I know it's an anxiety kind of day, Keil said.
Under a three-newspaper swap announced July 25, Knight-Ridder -- owner of the San Jose Mercury News and 34 other daily
newspapers -- is acquiring The Herald and the San Luis Obispo Telegram-Tribune from the E.W. Scripps Co. in exchange for
the Daily Camera in Boulder, Colo.
Keil and other Knight-Ridder officials told Herald employees that they will have to apply and interview for jobs at the paper,
along with other applicants, under the new ownership.
Any employee who desires a job with The Herald will be given full consideration, fair consideration and a personal interview,
Keil said.
Asked if current employees would be given hiring preference, she responded, My plan is to hire the best person suited for the
job.
One woman employee asked, If I've done my job for 20 years ... why pick someone else?
I didn't say that was going to happen, Keil responded.
Knight-Ridder officials said Herald employees were mailed job applications and other information about the ownership change
yesterday. They said available jobs also would be advertised in regional newspapers and within the Knight-Ridder newspaper
chain.
I'm personally puzzled why they are taking this route, said Russ Cain, a Herald photographer and representative of the San
Jose Newspaper Guild, which also represents Herald employees.
They didn't have to do it this way, he said. They aren't doing this in San Luis Obispo.
About 200 of 230 Herald employees are represented by the Newspaper Guild and two other unions -- the San Francisco Web
Pressmen and Prepress Workers, Local 4, and the Monterey Bay Area Typographical Union.
The unions' existing contracts with Scripps Howard are due to expire in June 1999, Cain said.
Knight-Ridder officials wouldn't say whether they would honor those contracts, saying it was too early in the ownership switch
and noting that the contracts are with Scripps-Howard, not Knight-Ridder.
Until the hiring process is complete, I can't say what, or if, the obligation will be, Keil said.
Cain said Knight-Ridder's plans for hiring means there are employees here that aren't going to be rehired.
The unions scheduled a 6 p.m. meeting Friday night in Monterey where members will be asked to authorize union leaders to
call a strike if and when it's necessary, he said.
Union workers at The Herald took the same tack in 1992 when Scripps-Howard acquired the paper, he said, but they didn't
strike because the then-new owner agreed to honor the existing contracts.
Given employee reaction to Knight-Ridder's announced hiring policy, Cain said he expected easy approval of a
strike-authorization vote.
That was an angry group in there, he said. The only problem I have is having them wait until tomorrow night.
Knight-Ridder officials had no immediate reaction to the unions' move.
It's a hard time. People are feeling very anxious, Keil said in an interview. I certainly understand that.
By LARRY PARSONS, The Monterey County Herald in Monterey, Calif.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:04
Pizza Man Sometimes Things Go Right!>(Sometimes Things Go Right!): - Bob a: Good call predicting Gold up on Thursday. Kitco truly is a
great site. Mr. Gene Inger last 2 lettters at Gold Eage was on the money!
Short S&P today what a ride. Gold up to put icing on the cake. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:02
nomercy Walmart Unionizing?>(Walmart Unionizing?): - In first for U.S., Wal-Mart workers voting on union
Copyright © 1997 Nando.net
Copyright © 1997 The Associated Press
MERRILL, Wis. ( August 8, 1997 12:58 p.m. EDT ) -- Lori Hermanson sees little significance in efforts to make her Wal-Mart
store the first in the country to unionize.
I don't think of it as an historic feeling as much as everyone wants that vote to be done, Hermanson, an office clerk with seven
years at Wal-Mart, said Thursday. It is kind of like a bad dream. We want it to go away.
But she and her colleagues are voting Friday on whether to join a union, the first time Wal-Mart workers in the United States
have done so. At stake is a dent in the company image of happy, blue-aproned workers known as associates in one big
family.
It pretty much seems business as usual, Charlyn Jarrells, Wal-Mart's labor relations manager, said in describing the mood at
the store. The associates are fully aware of when their voting times are and when they can go up and exercise their right to
vote.
The night receiving crew voted between 5 and 6 a.m. at the polling site, the store's lay-away storage area, Jarrells said. Two
other shifts of voting are set -- between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. In all, 94 workers are eligible to vote.
We are going against their tradition because what they say and what they do don't coincide, said pro-union employee Becky
Hehling, a 25-year-old single mother of three who had a Work with Dignity button pinned on her blouse.
Union supporters say representation will help win higher wages and fairer treatment in getting raises, scheduling by seniority and
a formal procedure for settling grievances.
But Hermanson said she opposed unionizing, and Wal-Mart district manager Ray Mann believed the vote would fail.
There has been tension over the vote in this rolling river town of about 10,000 people some 160 miles north of Madison. It
carries inside the store sometimes.
Hehling said the store's co-manager even broke into tears at one meeting, saying to vote for the union was to vote against her.
I offered her a tissue and she wouldn't even accept one, Hehling said.
Jeanette Krause, 36, shopping Thursday for school supplies for her six children, said Wal-Mart is the only discount retailer in
Merrill and her family does 99 percent of its shopping there.
She fears a union might change that.
My concern is what is Wal-Mart going to do if they push them too far. Would prices go up or would they close the store? she
asked.
The vote will be watched closely by giant retailers across the country, industry experts say.
I suppose it could be taken to some degree as a line in the sand for the union movement, making a stronger thrust back into
business, said Wendy Liebmann, president of WSL Strategic Retail, a market and retail consulting firm in New York.
A unionized Wal-Mart store would cut at the heart of Wal-Mart tradition and culture, and open the door for union efforts at
other stores, she said.
Except for a store in Windsor, Ontario, Wal-Mart has defeated all unionization attempts since it was founded in Arkansas by
Sam Walton in 1962. It relies heavily on stock incentives to motivate its relatively low-paid work force.
Wal-Mart has 2,308 stores and 439 Sam's Club stores in the United States and seven foreign countries. Sales totaled $104.8
billion for the year that ended Jan. 31.
The Merrill Wal-Mart opened in 1989 and employs about 120 people, 60 percent full-time.
Store wages range from minimum wage to about $14 an hour, said Pat Schafer, an organizer for the United Steelworkers
Union, which sought the election being conducted by the National Labor Relations Board. Employees below the level of
supervisor make no more than about $8 per hour, he said.
In order for the NLRB to call an election on the union question, at least 30 percent of the workers in the proposed bargaining
unit must sign a petition requesting one. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:01
panda @>(@): - From DBC news;
15:25 RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK DENIES CURRENCY REFORM WILL SWELL MONEY SUPPLY. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 16:00
slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity): - Panda--- What's your take on the technicals regarding the stock
markets behavior today? - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:59
Spud Master they are not going to send out invitations....>(they are not going to send out invitations....): - GFD: I doubt a US Carrier Group could stop 20 simultaneous, much less 200 , sea-skimming missiles, short of moving destroyers & cruisers into the path of the missiles in an awful hurry - ( destroyer bridge captain: THEY WANT US TO DO WHAT?! ) . It is unlikely the adversary will advertise their intent until the missiles are in the air. Just a nice, friendly, harmless Chinese tanker poking along the high seas until - surprise - it starts disgorging missiles. I can not think of any test or exercise in which 20 simultaneous sea-skimming missiles have been defeated. I'm sure the on-ship Phalanx guns would be blazing away ... too late. The best defense I read of ( some years back ) was to buy two used petroleum supertankers and have them cruise parallel to the expensive, tasty carrier as cruise missile spunges.
Unlike the moronic Iraq High Command, who are experts at torturing children, but idiots at fighting a *REAL* war, the Chinese are not going to give us plenty of clues before they damn well do what they want. Likely we'll be staring gape-mouthed in shock, saying softly: they can't do that. that's cheating...
Spud - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:46
GFD China Syndrome>(China Syndrome): - I have been enjoying all the recent - and well informed - posts on a hypothetical naval confrontation between China and the US.
Frankly, at the current time the Chinese would not stand a chance. Their air force is way, way too weak for anything serious. Secondly, the primary means of US naval engagement would be subsea. That is, they would use submarines combined with an agressive air and surface campaign against any serious Chinese ASW assets. Once the Chinese air force and ASW assets were dealt with the US would mine the harbours and the subs would sink anything that got through.
If you look at the US experience in WWII, it turns out that the subs ( once they got their stupid torpedoes to work!! ) were instrumental in bringing Japan down.
The Carriers would be way, way out of range of any land based cruise missiles and would be postitioned to protect Taiwan. While I tend to agree that you cannot expect 100% effectiveness against a large cruise missle attack, Chinese naval planners would have to be prepared to commit around 200 cruise missles in a combined attack to realistically have a chance to do serious damage to a US carrier. The only way they could do this at the current time would be by truck.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:45
panda @>(@): - Looks like a 'holding action' being fought around the 8050 to 8060 level. I guess we really don't want the Dow to close below 8000 for the weekend, now do we? :- )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:30
panda @>(@): - Updated Dow chart;
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:28
Jack Simple crap>(Simple crap): -
Next time you buy something; and you don't like where it was manufactured -don't buy it-. Its that simple.
I HOPE that the former UBS, is soon forced back to her old roots. As for Andy Smith and Ted Arnold, my glee may be premature, but HAR HAR HAR, anyway. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:27
nailz RON's 2000 PUTS>(RON's 2000 PUTS): - RON......Your guess of $3.75 as to where the fund would buy futures is probably close...I would guess 10-15 cents higher..Your question as to why would they expect it to go that low ? It is the nature of the markets..When the bulls reign they push to the max...Same on the other end, when the bears reign, they push to the max...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:25
panda @>(@): - Makes for a good read. This gets changed every hour or so.
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/snapshot.html?source=core/dbc
Looks like a last minute rescue coming up, tick just went positive by better than 200... - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:25
GFD Thanks>(Thanks): - Larryn: Thanks for the update. The leak in 30yr bonds did not register on my scope.
Does anyone have an opinion whether the *leak* represents buying exhaustion?
The next thing to watch will be monetization by the Fed if things start getting out of hand. Interestingly it may well be that the dow gets monetized as well as bonds given the Fed's apparently wider mandate. :- ) - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:20
panda @?>(@?): - Who wants to be long Bonds or stocks this weekend
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:19
hecate @papagayo.com>(@papagayo.com): - What about the rumour that OPEC will demand gold for oil in case of Middle East conflict ?
I understand this idea was originally started in Saudia. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:18
panda @327.75 EBN>(@327.75 EBN): - 3
2
7
.
7
5 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:15
panda @>(@): - TED -- I was in my friendly local Schwabee office today. I asked them about that twenty two minute fill for a market order yesterday. The response was, It was probably filled in a minute or less, your notification was just delayed. Funny thing is, that's not what the time stamps say.... You've all just been warned.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:15
nomercy $330 tug of war>($330 tug of war): - Will 'shorts' fold? They ran in August ( Dec rollover ) now what?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 15:10
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.comm>(mhurst@ix.netcom.comm): - Hi Ted, been out of circulation today. I like what I see in the gold market today. I have one thing to say; its time to pull anchor and sail. I haven't had time to produce a joke today. I will do it before I leave the office today. Regarding the gold stock index---yeeee haaaaah
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:57
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - GVC, Nailz, Mooney: Thanks for the feedback re yesterday's 11:10 query about large volume trades. I definitely overlooked the way options tend to increase in value as the underlying commodity approaches the strike price. I wonder just how low the fund in question believes silver will go? In other words, when do they intend to go long: 4.50, 4.25, 4.00, 3.75, 3.50? $4.50 is too risky, as is 4.25. It shouldn't be a problem to work out just where the gamble makes sense, being careful to factor in the increasing value of the puts as silver falls. Once you have that number, you'll know how low they expect/hope silver ultimately to go. Suppose that number is $3.75. My question is: why in THE world would anyone expect $3.75? Not by reading the same industry news that I'm reading!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:48
Spud Master tapirs, and rumors of tapirs...>(tapirs, and rumors of tapirs...): - Larryn: I agree with you about our weak knees Commander in Chief vs. a Chinese sinking of a US capital ship. We are so bleeding prostituted to incoming cash to buy our worth Treasury notes & keep the farce that is our happy, new economy going, God knows what kind of *ss-kissing rationalizations the CinC would make: ...well, our carrier Nimitz *was* in the way of their missile. I have directed Sec. State Albright to issue a formal appology and pay for the missile...
As far as Taiwan doing a Battle of Britian number vs China ... I hope so, but remember the Mainland Chinese thug-war-lord-so-called-leaders wouldn't hesitate to start pounding Taiwan with their intermediate range ballistic missles ( D-21 ) with conventional warheads. Perhaps the Patriot batteries on Taiwan could stop enough of the missiles ... maybe not. Cost of a Patriot vs. cost of Chinese D-21 missile - attrition situation here. The D-21 is cheap ballistic missile, the Patriot is a very expensive guided missile. I would guess the mainland Chinese will naval blockade Taiwan while the rest of the world wrings it's hands and says how awful! & does nothing ala Ethiopia/League of Nations circa 1935. Hopefully Taiwan will bloody China so badly that Beijing thugs think twice about it. End result though, is that Taiwan will probably be bankrupted by the defense action. Meanwhile, we'll all keep buying slave-labor tennis shoes from China.
Spud - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:46
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - XAU up 4.19....long bond down 1+ 31/32 with yield @ 6.64%....Dow down 109
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:42
Nick La>(La): - Speed: Don't overlook the fact that the British won their last war. If the Vietnamese join the Chinese well I hope they don't wear their pajamas and sandels this time.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:41
DJ @Front>(@Front): - Front - Better than being front to Back!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:39
Ted @Front>(@Front): - Welcome back!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:37
Ted @Panda>(@Panda): - Panda: your missive just floated in as my ISP picked today to shut down for most of the day...Your experience of yesterday is very interesting especially considering today's action in gold and gold shares..um....more tea leaves to consume!...Not familar with Regal as my firm is in yer neck of the woods ( Fidelity ) ...am gradually fazing em out as their service is going down the tubes....Good call this morning ( before the markets opened ) by Jimmy Rogers,shorting the long bond....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:35
Larryn gold market up>(gold market up): - GFD... The worldwide markets recognized that the 30 year bond refunding yesterday was bought almost entirely by investment houses and very little retailing to investors. The 30 year bond rate went up, the dollar went down before NYSE opened. Gold was up slightly in London early and S. African stocks were up. Because the stage has been set since early July, most of us like George Cole were waiting for the Treasury refunding to spring a leak. This could be it, coinciding with the rest of the world agreeing.
Now, is that high speed ship heading this way loaded with missiles, friend or foe?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:34
Front To David...>(To David...): -
I asked nice ... you refused ...
By your continuing to use David instead of obliging, obviously you want to keep the name David as your handle
Fine
I'm back to Front
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:31
Miro Y2K - Long-term investment implications>(Y2K - Long-term investment implications): - 2: I think that your odds of 1 in 5 for Y2K being a staggering economic
event causing a 10% drop in the Dow are underestimated. It is not so
much the cost of fixing the problem in individual companies, though
this is an issue by itself. I don't want to drag a software discussion
to the gold forum, at the end of the post I'll just make a comment to a
few posts related ADA, C++, COBOL.
1. In this era of global economy, networking, EDI, and high
dependency on technology, correcting your in-house system is not
enough. Problem is worldwide, and if somebody else fails it will impact
your company somehow.
2. It's not so much in-house software but a global communication,
exchange of information, electronic cash. Choke that and today's
economy will stop functioning.
3. Difference between spending on IT and spending on Y2K is that
non-Y2K spending is suppose to boost your productivity, Y2K
spending does not give you any new functionality or increase of
productivity/revenues
4. Y2K will take a bite from other high tech technology spending and
this will have an impact on high tech company earnings ( see the recent
announcement of MS about demand going flat )
5. There will be a significant money wasted on litigation. As of last
week there was the first ground breaking law suite where a local
grocery chain sued the company which developed their system ( system
is not accepting credit cards with expiration date pass 2000, system is
crashing, and the store is loosing business ) .
6. The cost of litigation is estimated at $1 trillion. The money spent
on litigation will not help production but it will sure push expenses up
and profit down. Law suits will not stop at system providers, companies
will sue their suppliers, and vice versa. Few companies will shut down
due to Y2K related litigation.
7. Next year you will start seeing Disclosure of Y2K risks to
shareholders and investors. Wall Street is still does not have a clue but
when they start reading about I,t not in media but in SEC filing and
company annual reports, they will act.
8. Consider Joe homeowner who acts not on the knowledge but on
tabloid news. As we get closer to the Year 2000, journalists hungry for
stories will have their lunch and public will act ( just like now when
they move money into MF because everybody say that's what they should
do )
I expect much more significant disruption than the one with 10% drop
in market. I would vote more like 30%. I think thiw will be a good
news for gold!
Discussion on ADA, C++, COBOL:. It's not the language. We go
through the code for all of them and none is in better shape than the
other. Software developed in old languages was patched over and
over, new software is developed through misuse of engineering
principles ( and yes, hacking ) . We just assessed a system developed in
modern client-server environment sitting on relational database, using
object oriented front end. System is still in development, not in a
production yet, and it has Y2K problems written all over it. If not
fixed it will fail badly. Correcting it will take more than old
fashioned language because the combination of object oriented
environment, misuse of it, combination of multiple technologies in
client-server is much worse than a monolithic COBOL application on
mainframe.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:30
Ted @YEN>(@YEN): - The surging trade surplus for Japan certainly put a damper on the U.S. Dollar...down 3.73 @ 114.70 ....If this is the start of a trend it'll definently help gold....Dow down 116...for trading to be halted the Dow has to be down 350 so we didn't even get close....YET...Where's Tort
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:24
Larryn china>(china): - SPEED and SPUD..
In war, technology doesn't always produce expected results. I do not expect our technology to work ( shoot down incoming ) entirely and I therefore expect losses, perhaps a big carrier. The question is really what will our great leader do if a few thousand sailors go down? Would we respond by bombing the mainland, or just say we made a mistake, sorry. Please don't bomb Disneyland.
If the U.S. should lose a big battle ( or just a major carrier ) such as this, the dollar would crash, and gold measured in dollars would skyrocket. U.S. debt would be unfundable and our financial house would be in big trouble. Our leaders know this ( Clinton, Rubin ) and therefore will not risk it. In other words, let Taiwan fight its own battles.
What would Taiwan do? Will they resist an invasion? I suspect they would eliminate most of an invading Red Air Force similar to the Battle of Britain. Then what? Would the rest of the world just watch? ( probably )
In any case, the Chinese would have to be crazy unless they felt they could bluff the mighty U.S. I don't rule that out with our present administration.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:23
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - 3-2-5. He is right again. This time going the other way.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:22
DJ PM History>(PM History): - With the exception of the spike in PL to 500, all PM have moved in well defined channels since roughly February this year. I think you will find this chart interesting.
Let's see if today's action changes things.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:17
Ted @Nailz>(@Nailz): - Hi Nailz: Just got back online...good day for my damn ISP to shut down for four hours...XAU up 3.37 but was higher...still not a bad day...eh!..
looks like the dipsters are tryin to do their thing and Dow only down 140....Long Bond gettin slaughtered! - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 14:10
nailz TO TED......>(TO TED......): - TED..........THANKS......
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:57
GFD Martians Revolt!>(Martians Revolt!): - Does anyone have a clue why gold is surging and the dow is tanking Is there any news ahead of this move ( There certainly will be following this... ) What gets me a little twitchy is bullish action on ALL the gold stocks in the indexes. Makes you wonder what is in the wind.
A very simple possibility would be all the major producers deciding to close their hedges with currently cheap bullion and lock in their profits.
Another possiblity is that there is a major transition between financial assets now under way. Someone posted a while ago that bullion and gold stocks USUALLY started major rises in the last phase of a bull market EXCEPT for times when there was a major transition between asset classes such as in 73/74 when you got more symetrical market action ( gold going up at exactly the same time stocks are tanking ) . Perhaps this is what may be unfolding.
Finally, there may also be some type of geopolitical unpleasantness about to unfold.
Very interesting to watch though. :- ) - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:48
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - up, up & away
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:48
FIDELITY @UPDATE>(@UPDATE): - Fidelity Gold funds update as of 1:00pm EDT:
FSAGX = $20.51 up .39 ( 1.94% )
FDPMX = $13.73 up .23 ( 1.70% )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:48
Who Cares? Ada Redux>(Ada Redux): -
Lazy programmers - Only the old ones. My students have been doing
OO programming for the past several days. : )
Unix is dead - what's your point? : ) Now we have Windows NT,
written in.... C++. : ) I have ALREADY incurred the RISK of
poor C++ programmers, have I not? : ) Surely I should reap the
benefits of cheaper costs. : )
And *my* life rarely depends on software. : ) Ada is relegated to
aircraft control, possibly command & control of the upcoming
high speed trains, nuclear power plants, and M-1 tanks. : ) I
rarely use any of these. : )
Sorry, I can't help it, I'm getting laugh out of this. I
absolutely love Delphi ( also a OO derivative of Pascal, like Ada ) ,
but it was crappy career move. : )
Obligatory gold comment - likewise, buy gold. : ) Not because
of shorts, trends, Y2K, Cobol or Ada, but because governments
have made promises that can NOT be met. Inflation, deflation,
who cares? They're both acknowledgements that paper has been
issued that is worthless. In one, inflation, everybody is
punished equally, while under deflation, reckless lenders and
borrowers are punished. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:36
Speed @lunch>(@lunch): - Spudmaster: We ain't the British. Our aircraft don't curtsey. Exocet missles have top range of 30 miles and have to be locked on by the firing platform.. The US harpoon has a range of 80 miles, guides itself in and every ship and most planes have 'em. We use SM-2s against Exocet type attacks and the Aegis class cruiser carries 100. All 100 can be fired in under 5 minutes. Your scenario sinks all Chinese ships and shoots down all Chinese missles with only one cruiser, not counting CAP from the carrier or the missle complement from the destroyer in the group. Don't forget the subs traveling with the BG. Don't forget the T-LAM ( A-D ) . More later. Go gold.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:31
I told you: @>(@): - US Treasury buying spoos as soon as dow down 200
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:21
2 At long last?>(At long last?): - Is this the day we have awaited? August 8, 1997: Beginning of the gold bull. What do you say we on the bus and enjoy the ride together, Kitcoites.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:17
Spudmaster DOW crash & burn today?>(DOW crash & burn today?): - Anyone care to comment on the DOW ( currently down 200+ points ) causing a NYSE market closure today?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:15
Spudmaster Who cares? You & everyone whose lives depend on software :)>(Who cares? You & everyone whose lives depend on software :)): - Who Cares: To answer your questions, I have yet to see an application that could not be practically and easily written in Ada, from real-time to brain-dead business apps. Face it, C/C++ programmers are mustly lazy. Rigor is not a word in their vocabulary.
With respect to an OS written in C++, running Ada apps - at least the Ada WON'T be a problem ; ) Unix - a soon to be dead OS, victim of Windows NT.
Spud - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 24.14 ( knock on wood )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:14
panda @HANG ON!>(@HANG ON!): - We might be testing THE CIRCUIT BREAKERS today! TICK = -1493 TRIN 1.430 SPX = -25.31 TYX up 12.9 basis points @ 6.648%
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:11
Who Cares? Ada Revisited>(Ada Revisited): -
Sorry, my sense can't let THIS one pass -
:Ada is a programming language mandated by the US DoD for software - or :was until they recently wimped out.
Because it couldn't accomplish the mission as well
as other tools. : )
Don't buy Ada stock. : )
:Ada is a language with roots in Pascal and Modula-2. There practically :no ambiguity in the Ada language. If you write an Ada program, any Ada :compiler will compile it, and an Ada programmer can understand it.
Delphi is a language with roots in Pascal and Modula-2. There is
practically no ambiguity in the Object Pascal language. If you
write an Object Pascal program, any Object Pascal compiler will
compile it, and any Object Pascal programmer can understand it. : )
However, you don't see nobody rushing to use Object Pascal,
because, despite its significant reliability advantage over
C++, it's a niche market. To paraphrase Hepcat - the cost of
producion is major cost driver. : )
Sorry, I just have to quibble. The ambiguity of C++ is
an ADVANTAGE, say its supporters. : )
: quirks. And that doesn't even say anything about the C/C++ languages - : which facilitate writing of poor code.
The same is true of Cobol, the true scourge of Y2K.
For the record, I say it's an overblown problem. : )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:09
GEORGE COLE down for the count?>(down for the count?): - High upside volume and strong gains in ALL XAU heavies. Bullion surging. Stocks plunging. SA golds surging. Looks like the gold bears and stock bulls ARE DOWN FOR THE COUNT.
The martians are going to massacre Andy Smith and his minions. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:08
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - EBN up 5.10! Could be 330 Dec won't stop the runup!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 13:03
Bernie Enough Guts!>(Enough Guts!): - bw
Agree with your assessment.
I hope the CPA's have enough guts to stand up to the Chairman
and tell him losses must be disclosed to shareholders. In fact I
think I will send them a fax.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:59
Who Cares? Ada>(Ada): -
Ada is a DOD invention. It's original purpose was to provide
a common programming language for all government projects.
It's a direct refutation of the idea of specific tools, i.e
the one size fits all mentality, hence it's failure to
accomplish its original mission.
It has found a niche in real-time systems that require high
reliability.
Question - if my base operating system is written in C++, how
do I benefit from using Ada for the application? : )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:58
Granny A lovely bluebird on the sill>(A lovely bluebird on the sill): - Sorry to post in the middle of the day when all of you who know so much more about things are posting such wonderful thoughts. My dear friend Esther Harrison who gets on the Web at the library in Cedar Rapids every Tuesday when she goes in to vist her sister Amelia just loves Mr. Cole. I've just given her a call and I just wanted everyone to know that she is so excited about Mr. Cole's prediction on the Dow top.
Eveeryone have a wonderful weekend, and I'm going to put out some more suet for that bluebird and his friends, then we're heading down to Lou's brother's place in Prairie Hill just until Saturday evening.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:54
Spudmaster C++ problem>(C++ problem): - WFN: ref. Y2K problem - I can't speak for ancient COBOL code ( I'd rather have no-caffine tea with Jane Fonda & listen to politcally correct rantings first ) - but I can say that from the code I've seen & software short-cuts taken, modification of C & C++ code will be painful. Another concern is the databases these systems use - many have allocated the usual two digits for the year, so not only must the code be corrected, but also the data model for the database reworked. The problem is bigger than simple code changes. On the otherhand, with the hype on the news, any manager that hasn't already started the process to fix the problem in his system will be toast. I can just hear some useless CEO screaming: ...WHY HAVEN'T YOU STARTED THE CORRECTIVE EFFORT!!!
Ada is a programming language mandated by the US DoD for software - or was until they recently wimped out. Ada is a language with roots in Pascal and Modula-2. There practically no ambiguity in the Ada language. If you write an Ada program, any Ada compiler will compile it, and an Ada programmer can understand it. Compare with C/C++ languages - for which there are a multitude of standards, version, each with their own quirks. And that doesn't even say anything about the C/C++ languages - which facilitate writing of poor code. Time will tell.
Obligatory gold comment: Buy gold.
Spud - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:50
panda @Hmmmm...>(@Hmmmm...): - EBN gold up $4.40. HMMMM... XAU up 4.67% HUI up 2.44%
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:48
Ron _REALLY_ Disillusioned!>(_REALLY_ Disillusioned!): - Bush-Dole Ticket in year 2000!!!? http://www.drudgereport.com/3.txt
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:42
t-back off to the shore>(off to the shore): - Wow, gold is up; the dow and S&P are down big time.
Time to take my buns to the beach and celebrate. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:40
bw Crashes:>(Crashes:): - Airline crashes have been much in the news lately. Airline profits are running at record highs. Perhaps some of these profits could be ploughed into airliner maintainence? Perhaps a few bucks could also go to fixing their glide path system on Gaum. Didnt know it was down? Our free press seems to to passing this fact by. One other thing we have not been maintaining for fifty or so years, our money. When it crashes it will be as if all the airliners in the world attempted a simultaneous landing at the Lima Ohio airport.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:39
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - I repeat the kitco discussion entry, below, that I entered/shared, yesterday, Aug. 7th. This is the resumption of the bull market in precious metals, which, for this decade, began in late '92, first quarter of '93. This is not an Elliot Wave' bear market rally, for gold, or silver.... ( dear Elliot is surely turning in his grave ) . This is a new bull-market chapter, for gold & silver investments, just beginning. It is one of those rare times when an investor can throw caution to the wind, and go 'long', on precious metals investments. Here is my kitco discussion, from Aug. 7th:
________
Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:48
David ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) :
Reason Returns, Just In Time
Is the U.S. Bond market encountering indigestion ?
Is the U.S. Dollar @ 'exhaustion' ?
Is the S&P approaching it ?
Did the Comex Aug. gold contract close @ a new low, yesterday, while Silver, the Xau,
Platinum, Paladium ... did not? ... And thus did not confirm the recent downtrend; but
instead, signal a change in trend, and a new bull-chapter, for gold & silver related
investments ... ( ? ) .
Who was it who said: Pride goeth before the fall. ...?
( from Inv. Business Daily, 8/7/97, p. B1: )
Fed Critics Cancel Meeting
The Fed and its policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee are doing such a good job
that the gadfly Shadow Open Market Committee has decided to cancel its usual September
meeting, the SOMC's leader announced. The Shadow group of monetary-oriented
economists has met every six months since September 1973 ( ! ) . But its chairman, Allan
Meltzer, states in an Aug. 1 letter: 'Currently we see no reason to meet.'
...
Now, isn't this curious; sort of like: 'as Nero fiddles, Rome burns'. Isn't it even more curious
that when the economy is going all to hell ( --as it will be, again, and soon ) ; everyone has
someone to blame. And when the economy is growing, or appears to be so; eager voices
abound to take credit for it, &/or pat one another on the back -- for the feigned credit due,
and/or otherwise, willingly look the other way.
So, as 'mother-nature', pushed once more to the limit, loses patience with our folly, one more
time; reason will return, but only with considerable surprise, and pain, once again. Markets
out of balance, out of 'rhyme' with reality, will correct themselves, in this time.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:27
WSF NC>(NC): - Spudmaster- I welcome your comments about C++. I thought I was the only one who thought 'compact' code was dangerous. Do you think the Y2K problem extends to C++ programs? I don't know why not, but I've not seen any references yet. By the way, what is Ada?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:11
Ron Disillusioned (nothing to do with gold)>(Disillusioned (nothing to do with gold)): - A few weeks ago someone posted a great commencement address that Kurt Vonnegut was purported to have given to graduating class at MIT. Turns out it was a big internet hoax. Vonnegut has never given a commencement address at MIT. The woman who actually wrote the address did so while high on coffee and M&M's. Additionally, Vonnegut absolutely hates the internet! Read about it at http://www.nytimes.com/library/cyber/week/080697vonnegut.html ( you may have to register, but it's free )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 12:02
Smithy Elliot/gold>(Elliot/gold): - Eldorado -
Re your post a couple of hours ago, the orthodox Elliott wave view is that gold is doing an A-B-C rally whereby the first leg went up to $330 aprox., then down to $318 and then the third and final 'c' wave to $330 again ( give or take a few $ ) before she heads down to $300 or lower on last leg down before major rally. If it is a 'flat' correction it won't go above the previous $330 high.
There are two arguments against this scenario: 1 ) the gold shares are pulling upward strongly and are generally a good lead indicator ( thank you, Mr. Cole ) and b ) the weekly stochastic for gold has given a buy signal. Again, as George Cole has said, if the price breaks above $332 it is bullish. I'll be buying on the other side of it. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:54
Spudmaster death to C++!>(death to C++!): - To 2: ( chuckle ) And people think the Y2K situation is a problem - wait until all those gaggles of C/C++ code start needing modification! Ever tried to maintain C++ code written by someone enamoured of language complexity? Unreal. The real cost of software is in MAINTENANCE, as the Y2K problem indicates. C/C++ programmers tend to write dense, illiterate, hard to understand and unmaintainable code. Ada was designed with all the cold, hard lessons of past language failures in mind. It is the ultimate pity that C++ has triumphed over Ada due to the simple fact that Ada *forces* you write correct code - this threatens the freedom of C/C++ programmers. When it comes to software that you entrust lives to, freedom of code design is not a big concern.
I try to fly in Boeing aircraft when I travel - as they use Ada for flight safety critical software. The thought of losey-goosey C/C++ written by the herds of ill-trained hackers and C programmers is terrifying.
Spud - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:54
panda @What a difference a week or two can make!>(@What a difference a week or two can make!): - Long Bond over the last few days...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:50
panda @HUI>(@HUI): - HUI chart...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:48
panda @xau>(@xau): - XAU chart...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:47
panda @charts>(@charts): - Dow in trouble
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:41
nomercy Treasury Bonds>(Treasury Bonds): - Feds...calling Hashimoto...ding...ding...
He doesn't appear to answer...
U.S. BONDS:
Treasury bonds staggered lower Friday morning as weakness in overseas bourses spread to the U.S. market. Catalysts in the
decline are worries over next week's economic reports as well as dealer selling of a surplus of newly-issued Treasury securities.
Next week's economic docket includes data on consumer and producer price inflation, retail sales, and industrial production.
Given recent strength in auto sales, in addition to the pick-up in sales at major retailers, some market participants are worried
that the upcoming data will come in above expectations.
Further, primary dealers of government securities are sitting on a mountain of 10- and 30-year Treasury bonds that they had
trouble selling to customers in this week's quarterly refunding.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:40
Ron Thailand>(Thailand): - August 8, 1997
Thailand Warns Over Economic Rumors
Filed at 10:05 a.m. EDT
By The Associated Press
BANGKOK, Thailand ( AP ) -- Thai authorities threatened Friday to punish people spreading rumors that the prime minister would resign
in response to a worsening economic crisis.
The threats by Interior Ministry officials came a day after state-owned media outlets were asked to stop undermining national stability by
reporting rumors of a looming military coup or the resignation of Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.
The warnings underscored the government's desperation to keep a lid on a potential public panic and runs on deposits stemming from a
rescue package from the International Monetary Fund as the country copes with its worst economic crisis in 15 years.
Chavalit had an audience to brief the country's revered monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, on the economic situation Thursday that
triggered rumors he would be asked to step down, causing the stock market to rally.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed down 1.18 points Friday to 637.90 after the rumors proved false. But the currency, the
baht, strengthened to 30.25 against the U.S. dollar from 31.15 amid lingering anticipation of a new government.
``We know where the rumor is from and who released it and what they want to do,'' Interior Minister Snoh Thienthong told reporters
Friday. His aides promised unspecified action against them. No one was identified.
Meanwhile, the government guaranteed deposits at remaining banks and finance companies in case the economy keeps stumbling despite
the IMF bailout, expected to total $15 billion to $18 billion.
The guarantee is aimed at stopping a run on deposits following the closure of 42 finance companies Tuesday under the IMF deal.
Coupled with the closure of 16 finance companies earlier this year, the move has caused to Thais to withdraw their money from the
remaining 33 finance companies and 15 commercial banks. Many have been furiously transferring funds to foreign banks.
The guarantee, pledged by Siri Ganjarerndee, an assistant central bank governor, said depositors at surviving institutions would be repaid
their funds instantly if one fails.
``We feel uncomfortable to see that much of the public's deposits have been transferred to foreign banks,'' Siri said. ``If people keep
withdrawing money from these institutions, the healthy companies will become unstable.''
After a decade-long, export-driven boom where average annual growth stood above 8 percent, Thailand's bubble burst in 1996.
Export growth fell to zero and the financial sector veered toward insolvency as companies that lent heavily to property firms ended up
holding dud loans when a glut of space could not be sold.
Speculative attacks against the baht forced a flotation July 2 that shaved 20 percent off its value against the U.S. dollar.
The baht's troubles triggered speculation against other Southeast Asian currencies, and the region hopes the IMF package can sort out
Thailand's mess before it spreads.
Calls mounted this week for Chavalit, a former supreme military commander with little economics experience, to resign.
Chavalit's nine-month-old coalition government has failed to meet promises to stem the economic crisis. Many Thais see turning from
Chavalit to the IMF as their last hope, but others are angry to surrender economic sovereignty. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:40
bw Re: Bernie, losses>(Re: Bernie, losses): - Bernie: Agree losses must stay hidden. Its amazing to me how long this game can be run. I have been watching for thirty or so years as losses of all flavors are capitalized and added to the evergrowing debt load.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 24.60. One ounce cheaper than the other day and starting to look a little spikey ( knock on wood )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:35
DJ test>(test): - Channels.JPG
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:18
Savage +++>(+++): - CHEROKEE: You might be interested in this...I've heard Bible scholars claim that the Kings of the East that will invade Israel, is comprised of a China/Persia ( aka Iraq/Iran ) confederacy.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:16
Terry Oz@canada>(Oz@canada): - To Goldy
try this
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=core/dbc
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:15
George cole XAU>(XAU): - Mixed volume in XAU heavies today. PDG and NEM high; ABX and HM low. We need to see high upside volume in all these issues for several consecutive days before we can be reasonably sure sure a new gold bull has begun.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:08
2 Spudmaster>(Spudmaster): - Your post grasps well the extreme fragility of the world military situation. Is solid Ada code the answer?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 11:03
WSF NC>(NC): - 2- I only wish the sheep saw a 10% decline as staggering. They see it as a buying opportunity. In that case Y2K will be a net positive!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:59
Spudmaster @Pearl Harbor>(@Pearl Harbor): - Speed: Not to praise the thug-overlords who currently rule China, but to discount their ability to clobber the US Fleet in battle is foolish - you had better remember the Falkland Islands war - inept Argentina destroyed many top of the line British ships with low-tech iron bombs. And had Argentina many more French Exocets, the British fleet would be at the bottom of the South Atlantic. I would be scared badly by the prospect of a herd of sea-skimming mach 3 missles converging my fleet. If I were China, trading 40 Exocet firing brown water missile boats for a few Aegis cruisers or aircraft carrier would be a great bargain. I don't think the self-defense Phalanx guns could take down ten or twenty simultaneous sea-skiming missiles - a few maybe, then you just watch the remaining ones rip your billion dollar aircraft carrier apart. Our ships survive by keeping way-away from such threats. As for the coward-thug-creep Saddam, you are right about him allowing the US to build up forces prior to the US attack. He should have rained Scuds down on the Saudi ports from Day 1 to prevent US troops/supplies landing.
There are so many wars waiting to happen, we are going to have our hands full:
1 ) Iran vs Saudi Arabia
2 ) Pakistan vs India
3 ) China vs. Taiwan
4 ) North Korea vs South Korea
5 ) Israel vs. Syria
The only one that really matters is the Middle East. I expect that is why we left that coward-butcher Saddam in power: Iraq will take the brunt of the initial Iranian war surge, while US forces get ready. I can't see how the US will let the oil supply be interdicted. Taiwan, I expect, we have pretty much sold to the Chinese.
Spud - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:57
DJ Right On!!>(Right On!!): - David -- Hear, Hear! King George the Gilded.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:41
Mic Jagger Should I place me pounds in RSA gold?>(Should I place me pounds in RSA gold?): - John Disney - Wouldn't you agree that the track record of African decolonialization suggests that all of RSA needs to be praying desperately for a continuing miracle in that fair land in the coming ten to twenty years?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:38
George S. Cole stock market>(stock market): - Thanks David! I am still not 100% sure the market has peaked, but the odds look pretty good now. If the next rally does not make a new high, then we can be 99% certain the top is in.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:35
2 Y2K - Long-term investment implications>(Y2K - Long-term investment implications): - Miro et al: I have read all I can find on Y2K. I know software. My studied conclusion is that the odds of Y2K being a staggering economic event ( let's define staggering very arbitrarily as assessed in 20-20 hindsight as having caused a 10% drop in the Dow ) are about 1 in 5. Now we know of course that billions will be spent on it. But those billions are being digested even now without too much fallout. What can you tell me as a long-term investor that I might not know that would change my expectation?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:28
David All & GSCole>(All & GSCole): -
It's official gentlemen :
The award for KING OF KITCO goes to
MR. GEORGE S. COLE
for the week of August 8,1997 's call for the DOW to RIP at 8300 !
Given willingly ( since that takes the pressure to perform off our backs ) by Earl and David ( formerly Front )
Congratulations George !
TTFN
ps the last 2 David postings were not mine, Good, I agree, but not mine.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:25
George Cole Joberg>(Joberg): - With the SA golds now joining the upward parade, I would place the odds that the lows have been seen at about 80%. As i have said repeatedly in the past, all genuine gold bulls must have strong SA participation.
Sounds like some of Andy Smith's clients are losing big money in the whites, Wait till they start losing big in the yellow! Wonder how much longer he will be able to keep his job. . - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:20
Miro Links to all Senate Testimony on Y2K without downloading>(Links to all Senate Testimony on Y2K without downloading): - Donald: use the following links to get all Senate Banking Testimonies
on Y2K in financial systems:
You have to read between the lines. I work with some all mighty
agencies on Y2K issues and see what is really going on. Testimony on the
Hill, does not say in clear language what is the real progress. Remember
that all testimonies are carefully prepared by lawyers and spin masters
to make it look as positive as possible.
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BOARDDOCS/TESTIMONY/19970730.htm
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_07hrg/073097/witness/ludwig.htm
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_07hrg/073097/witness/levitt.htm
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_07hrg/073097/witness/damours.htm
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_07hrg/073097/witness/retsinas.htm
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/97_07hrg/073097/witness/hove.htm
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:18
Bernie Greenspan the accountant>(Greenspan the accountant): - To All:
Very unusual, our Federal Reserve Chairman writes a letter to the
Financial Accounting Standards Board asking them not to
implement new accounting standards for derivatives.
Our Chairman does not want companies to be forced to record
their losses gambling in derivatives games. Why? The losses will
be substantial and will reduce or eliminate profits which will, when
reported, burst the stock market bubble.
Agree or disagee?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 10:16
EB Goldy try this>(Goldy try this): - http://router.minot.com/~bohl/
away...to disneyland...not kidding...in the summer...oh God help me...I'm fulfilling wishes...that's good Karma...right?
EB
good weekend all! - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:37
News @for kitcoites>(@for kitcoites): - LONDON, Aug 8 ( Reuter ) - Precious metals held on to overnight gains on Friday morning but lacked signs of fresh buying to continue their rally, dealers said.
The platinum group metals ( PGMs ) were sharply higher despite the earlier-than-forecast arrival of Russia's contracted August shipments of platinum and palladium in Tokyo earlier on Friday.
Gold was fixed at $321.60 per ounce up 60 cents from Thursday's afternoon fix and just under the close of $321.90/$322.40.
``Gold is looking a bit toppy at this level. It is meeting some selling at over $322.00,'' one dealer said.
It was still a market in which to sell rallies, he said.
Although the price was about $3.00 under its opening week level, producers were looking to lock-in forward prices at anything over $322.00, the dealer said.
The market was helped up in New York yesterday by a slight weakening in the dollar from its level over 1.88 marks earlier in the week, and a 71-point fall in the Dow to 8188 which effectively turned round the previous day's gains.
The outside bet for gold was that a break through $323 would pave the way to $328 but dealers emphasised that this would need on a short covering rally and that was not certain.
Gold's short dated forward borrowing rates have been rising steadily this week suggesting either that more short positions have been opened or that producers have been borrowing metal to sell forward to lock in prices -- or both.
``Open interest is still high on the ( Comex futures ) exchange although yesterday's rally might have involved light short covering by the hedge funds,'' one dealer said.
Japanese trade house officials said Russia delivered its contacted platinum and palladium for August on Friday but prices rose on short covering by private investors in Tokyo.
Platinum was at $438.00/$441.00 up $4.00 but down about $21.00 from midweek levels and palladium was quoted at $229.00/$232.00 up $13 and $16.50 off the midweek high.
``Technically the moves are not unreasonable. The prices have retraced to a mid-point which suggests the ranges could begin to narrow,'' one dealer said.
A strike at South Africa's Impala Platinum Holding's refinery was also supporting the price although output was not being affected, dealers said.
Silver was down a cent at $4.37/$4.39.
06:31 08-08-97 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:33
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For George Cole
RSA golds index up 3% so far - Wstn Deeps at 115 from
105 this am. Impala at 55 from 51 yesterday. I really
enjoy it when it goes like this. Now if gold would just
break a moving average of note. Happy days. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:23
panda @BBL>(@BBL): - Go to go and do 'stuff'. :- ( BBML
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:21
panda @>(@): - A couple a news items;
South Africa
JOHGOLD JOHAN ALL GOLD INDEX 967.10 +10.10 +1.06% 8/7
From Bloomberg News;
Deutsche Mark's Fall Stings Germans' Pride -- and Pocketbooks By Renee S. Cordes Frankfurt: Matthias Steudter would rather be running, bicycling and swimming this month at a triathlon in Hawaii. Instead, the Frankfurt bicycle messenger is
navigating traffic in Germany's financial center. The culprit is the usually robust deutsche mark, the linchpin currency of post-war Europe, whose 18 percent plunge against the dollar this year has prompted comparisons with the swooning Thai baht
while making U.S. trips ``verboten'' for many Germans. ``Everything has gotten so expensive,'' said Steudter, who won't be going to Hawaii for the first summer in three years. Economists cite a myriad of reasons for the mark's slump, though they mostly boil down to Germany's weak economic performance when compared to that of the U.S. Published 11:38 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:21
goldy goldy@webstore.fr>(goldy@webstore.fr): - TO ALL:
Does anybody know where I can get Comex gold futures Open interest,daily
figures?
Thank you - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:18
Ted @seakayaking>(@seakayaking): - I'm outta here....to nice to be inside!...BBL gold buggers...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:16
Ted @JIN>(@JIN): - Good afternoon JIN!...What the hell is happening to your stock market?
Where is THAT money going - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:14
Ted @panda>(@panda): - Panda: doesn't look like we'll hit 6% this week...eh....S+P futures down 10.40
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:09
nomercy Malasya>(Malasya): - Malaysia's main stock index fell 2.46 per cent
yesterday on significant foreign selling amid a fall in
foreign exchange reserves, dealers said.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970808010739043&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2714 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:07
nomercy Jakarta>(Jakarta): - Minister visit eases
Jakarta's sharp fall
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970808010739049&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2415 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:06
panda @>(@): - TED -- I got the Long Bond @ 6.567% UP 4.8 basis points so far today.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:05
Skylark @>(@): - For the last 2 days, I have not been able to connect to any of the CNN news sites, anyone else having this problem.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:05
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Comex: Gold up 1.30;Silver @ unch; and PL up 10.40...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 09:03
Ted @panda>(@panda): - Yeah, it's lookin grim ain't it....probabaly should have sold NES yesterday...eh...talkin heads sayin if S+P futures stay where they are,we're lookin at a 100 point down opening for the Dow..S+P futures down 10.25...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:58
panda @>(@): - TED -- Something coming your way. It looks like the word for today is UGLY. I mean equities = UGLY. Perhaps nobody wants to buy T-Bonds anymore? Globex does look UGLY!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:57
nomercy China-India>(China-India): - It sounds like China is being very 'active' and 'disruptive'. We have to keep in mind the 'source' of these postings. Do they want us to know?
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970808023620042&top=china&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=956 - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:56
Ted @ocean>(@ocean): - Re-market turmoil: EBN gold quickly @ up 1.10....The sun is out and it's getting close to seakayaking time....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:55
bw Re: china?>(Re: china?): - china?: Good post. What makes it so sad to me is many of our largest corporations willingly give china our latest technology. China demands the latest technology transfer as a quid pro quo for the use of their slave and quasi-slave labor. Technology that took generations and hundreds of billions of us taxpayer and corporate profits to develop is given gratis or almost. Perhaps they KNOW we MUST import their cheap labor or the game is over for us.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:53
gunrunner @spray-and-pray>(@spray-and-pray): - Roebear - Might be less expensive and get better quality with the old ones. BTW, you can still get the pre-banned IMI ( Model A ) for around $1500. Model B's go for a little less.... Both are getting a little harder to find, tho. Mossberg and UZI as partners - I can still hardly believe it! The hand guns they've been hawking recently have a hefty price tag....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:50
nomercy Russia-China>(Russia-China): - Whilst the west try to penetrate their 'market' for economic gains...
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970806025355060&top=rel&template=archived.htx&maxfieldsize=790&PrevID=19970808023620042//&PrevTop=china//&PrevTemp=Default.htx//&PrevMFS=956// - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:48
Ted @stox>(@stox): - talkin heads say a statement by fed official Susan Phillips about wage pressure is behind large drop ( 28 ticks ) in long bond and big decline in S+P futures...Could be an interesting day folks ....in five minutes London market is down another 25 points!....now down 73....pound crashin!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Does anyone know how to shout SELL! in Greek? All Europe down, four exchanges down more than 2%. Keep knocking on wood. And, the best part is that no one seems to know why. That is a signal of market exhaustion. I would rather that we were in an oversold mode as per the comments of Gene Inger.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:44
Speed heading to work>(heading to work): - Bob A: I don't know about political resolve. I hire vets and am very impressed with the folks we train and send into harms way. Our stuff is much better than the anti-military press will admit. Am unashamedly a flag waver. gotta go to work. S&P futures are going south fast! Could be an interesting day for gold. BYE!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:42
EB big.platinum.fridays...boring...>(big.platinum.fridays...boring...): - NOT!
AWAY$$$$$$$
EB - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:41
Ted @stox>(@stox): - S+P futures down 11.20.....11.30...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:40
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - Cherokee - Agree that China is increasing its capabilities with its numerous silent partners. The introduction of extremely high/hyper- velocity anti-ship missiles and/or coupled with a low RCS weapon would be deadly to its adversary fleets ( whomever that might be…. ) The Silkworm missile is just a tinker toy compared to what they have now. However, to say that Sadam rolled over because someone wanted to observe the U.S. military capability is rather an implausible conspiracy theory. Schwartzkopf was lauded a hero for routing the Iraqis. Don Knots on his worse day could have defeated those clowns with the firepower the U.S. was allowed to build up in that area months before the massacre was initiated. It is unlikely that in any future flare up the U.S. will have the luxury of months of buildup time of personnel and materiel. The backbone of U.S. projection of power remains the carrier battle group. If that capability is taken out of the battle zone early in a conflict, the U.S. might have to resort to some of its special weapons or else seek a truce. But, as I’ve said here before, the likelihood of this type of scenario happening in the near future is nil. The wildcards remain - escalating violence among the middle east players seems the biggest cause for concern at the moment.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:36
nomercy Andy Smith>(Andy Smith): - The count is TWO STRIKES, no balls, two-out, bottom of the ninth, Andy baby,
``It's not Machiavelli, it's Murphy,'' offered precious metals analyst Andy Smith of UBS in London, one of the few analysts who
does not subscribe to the dwindling stockpiles theory.
``What can go wrong has gone wrong. With the bureaucratic and political problems, the by-product has been disrupted
supply.'' - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:32
Ted @S+P futures>(@S+P futures): - S+P futures down 10.25 and long bond down 26 ticks
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:24
nomercy US Labor scene - Reality check>(US Labor scene - Reality check): - I guess this is the 'New economic Era' re: Fruit-of the Loom layoffs.
Strong US $, means losses of full-time jobs, decimating the manufacturing industry.
It's just a matter of time, before we find out the 'price' of today's short term economic gains.
http://www.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Fruit-Loom-Layoffs.html
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:23
Bob A to Speed>(to Speed): - We might have it but do we have the resolve to use it? I'm on the fence on that one.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:16
Ted @Johndisney>(@Johndisney): - John Disney: Ain't Vermont great.....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:14
George Cole Joberg>(Joberg): - Joberg gold index now up 1.7% as European stock markets sink. The times they are a changin!
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:12
Ted @Nailz>(@Nailz): - Good job the other day on Vronsky's site! Mornin Panda....S+P futures down 3.30 .....For what it's worth Jimmy Rogers is shorting the long bond
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:10
Speed Chinese generals as an information source?>(Chinese generals as an information source?): - The Chinese navy is a brown water collection with no history, no experience and no chance of winning a fight with any U.S. Fleet ( We have more than one ) . One U.S. carrier group contains an Aegis class cruiser, a destroyer, and a supply ship in addition to one of the largest, fastest, best armed carriers in the world. The Aegis class cruiser carries 80-100 AW missles capable of engaging any airborne threat at ranges of over 80 miles. They also carry a couple of dozen tomahawk cruise missles, some of which are armed with tactical nukes. The price of gold might go up in a clash, but the chinese navy will be a rapidly depreciating asset.
I understand the antipathy toward a draft dodger president and budget cuts of defense programs, but let's not forget that what we have is better than anything else on this planet. Semper Fidelis - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:10
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For George Cole
Wow George - 2 NY Times articles on RSA in one
morning - With newspapers like the the NYT who needs
toilet paper
Are you kidding me?. Some guys just hate rich people.
Rather than sit around and bitch about it and impose
capital gains tax and progressive income taxes why not
just cut their heads off Im sure some guys in Vermont
would go along with that.
The Black, White, and colored politicians that the
NYT was at least partly responsible for getting into
power do not have to be on the take from the dreaded
monopolies since they are already stealing as much
money as they can handle from taxes.
To write that cars and TV sets and steaks are so
expensive that the average guy cant afford them and
imply that that's because of monopolies is stupid.
The price of these items is set by import export pricing
and world wide competition.
In short, the article is pathetic. This is the
kind of crap the US press and the Guardian was spouting
off 20 years ago.
Mandela now blames crime in RSA as the instigation
of the white third force - the NYT will problably pick
this up in a few years.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:07
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To All - See where Prince of Dorks Andy Smith ( what a name ) is mad
at the Russians and says they had better get supplies of platinum in
the pipeline pretty damn quick. Gee Whiz Andy You talk tough !
Also Andy does not subscribe to the theory that stockpiles are dwindling.
Heheheh - this is starting to look like fun. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:05
vronsky HE INGER MARKET FORECAST - August 7, 1997>(HE INGER MARKET FORECAST - August 7, 1997): - “The missing word for the stock market is “awesome”... which best
describes extraordinary upside action. It seems Public views market
profits as ENTITLEMENTS - Must RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:01
panda @>(@): - Seems like the thing to do was sell the Nasdaq 100 last night on the Globex. It's still early, but we shall see what we shall see.
I thought the explanation of the dismal Long Bond performance was hilarious! The primary dealers bought the bonds to sell at retail. The problem was, retail folks didn't want them! :- ) ) As Homer Simpson would say, Dooooooooh! :- ) ) - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 08:00
Donald @Home>(@Home): - All of Europe except Greece is down. I haven't seen that in a long time. Ten exchanges are down more than 1%. Everyone knock on wood.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROEBEAR: The Fed Y2K thing downloaded as a file. I tried to open it with WordPerfect but it says unknown format.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:51
Observer control freak>(control freak): - Yeh! And give them back their gold you bully-boys.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:50
panda @?>(@?): - Good morning TED!
This mornings white metal news...
Spin control over PGMs...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/y0003_y00_3.html
Platinum theft...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/y0002_y00_1.html
Almaz is not talking...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/y0023_z00_10.html
More uncertainty over platinum and palladium...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0000_2.html - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hi Ted: Starting out pretty gray, and cool too. Had to sign off earlier. Dealing with a leaky water pipe. Today I should be pricing copper, not gold.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:41
cherokee @the-7th-star-in-the-7th-sisters>(@the-7th-star-in-the-7th-sisters): - fundy---
the quote from the chinese general was on a cable program
in the houston area this week. they also quoted a high
ranking party member who spoke of deception and theft of
patent and military secrets from the west. they spoke
of defeating our naval forces in their arena, and of
another simultaneous front ( war ) to keep our forces split.
if they are able to launch missles that can hit the us mainland,
is there reason to think they cannot hit our ships in THEIR
sphere of influence? they would not even have to launch the
air-forces to eliminate our task force, as their missle program
has made quantum leaps over the last several years.
with clinton at the helm, we are at a cusp in our history. even if
our military and political machinations do not know it, the chinese
the russians know it.
the us and israel are more succeptible and vulnerable than at any
time since the 60's. the plans are in place, the players have position,
there is only one question yet to be answered. when
cherokee!; ) anvil-to-the-hammer
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:40
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - London Gold: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0000_5.html
European equity markets getting weaker towards close....Pound down enough versus U.S. Dollar that they're already talking about another interest rate increase even though rates were raised a quater point yesterday...
Japan's trade surplus up 55.8% which should put more pressure on Japan to try and strenthen the Yen,which be helpful for GOLD.... - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 07:18
nomercy S.Korea (It's getting interesting)>(S.Korea (It's getting interesting)): - War Games in Korea
U.S. Maneuvers Cut Into Treaty Talks
Posted Thursday, 11:45 AM EDT
NEW YORK: They say you should speak softly and carry
a big stick, and that's just what the U.S. and South Korea
are doing by announcing joint military exercises — right in
the middle of peace talks with North Korea.
But this big stick business won't wash with the North.
They're complaining — quite reasonably, it seems — that
scheduling war games with 16,000 troops isn't exactly the
best way to conduct the peace negotiations currently under
way at Columbia University in New York.
The South Korean maneuvers are set to start on August
18. And Uncle Sam seems to be further antagonizing the
North by flying 150 warplane reconnaissance flights near
the demilitarized zone. Perhaps they've been encouraged by
recent reports of mass starvation over the border. But they
would do well to remember another maxim: don't beat a
man when he's down.
-- Chri - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 06:10
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - European equity markets all down....Long Bond down 7 ticks....Nikkei turned it around and was up 128.61....
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 06:09
George Cole Joberg>(Joberg): - Joberg gold index now up 1.3%. December gold off a dime. Where the stocks lead bullion follows.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 05:55
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - London Gold: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/08/z0000_2.html
Investors ( ? ) put an estimated 23 BILLION into the stock market in July ( up 39% from June ) ....That makes sense.....when stox get more expensive ya buy more of em....TGIF folks! - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 05:41
Observer of the Earth>(of the Earth): - Does anyone know the date on which Money Bags cracked the joke about
the President and his wallet. I'd love to send it to someone. If you do
could you post it please. Thankyou. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 05:32
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Mornin Donald and ALL!...Just in from watchin another sunrise over the North Atlantic....BEAUTIFUL!...I see EBN Gold came back a bit and is now only down .40 but as Wall Street does,the Comex sets the tone...
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 05:20
Roebear @Donald>(@Donald): - Donald, I only had time to glance at it, I did save it and hope to give it a better read tonight. Your comments on it would be welcome to this neophyte, but am on my way out the door to slavery...be back tonight. Keep the home fires a burnin' Donald : )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 05:03
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROEBEAR: Did you read what the Fed had to say about Y2K from my evening post?
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 05:02
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ
You know most S/D balances confuse people with lots
of numbers - the big problem is that any decision must
be based on a small difference between large numbers.
Its very easy to make a mistake or draw the wrong
conclusion.
The Mining Journal shows similar numbers to the
expensive guys you mentioned.
Believe the problem is that people got used to the
Russian stock run down and confused it with production.
If that is the case, a 40 thou oz surplus with rusian
supplies at 1200 thou oz, quickly becomes a 560 thou oz
shortfall if the stockpile runs out and real production
is only 600 thou onces. There would be little warning and
no one to make up the difference other than US strategic
stock piles.
Then add in any speculators that shorted
at high prices and you can have an interesting situation. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 04:47
Roebear @Israel>(@Israel): - Some Katyusha rockets explode in northern Israel.
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100g.htm - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 04:35
Roebear @SAVAGE>(@SAVAGE): - I believe the Gary North Storyrefers to this Y2K site posted earlier here. http://www.garynorth.com/
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 04:27
Prospector www.randomhouse.com>(www.randomhouse.com): - Anyone read ( or looking for a good read ) ?
The History of Money by Jack Weatherford
A well written book on the history of money. A good read for goldbugs, history buffs, and anyone
interested in money generally. Interesting insights. The author supports the gold standard and gives
reasons why currencies have done so poorly since
the American and British gold standards ended.
History does repeat and our current governments are not much different than the Old Roman Emperors.
Any thoughts, anyone? - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 04:16
George Cole Fidelity>(Fidelity): - Schippi; I agree with GVC on the question of FSAGX versus FSPMX. When the metal enters a sustained uptrend there is little doubt that FSPMX will substantially outperform FSAGX. The SA shares always outperform in sustained gold bulls, just as they underperform when the metal is headed south.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 04:10
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ
Ah woe is me - I have decided to devote the
dwindling remains of my useless life to answering questions
of this nature.
It is my Don Quixote quest - Enlightenment - Write it
large upon my pyramid.
A thumbnail view of rusplat 1997 preliminary results
follows with key assumptions
Tons milled 16.5 mill
Head grade 5.68 gm/ton ( total metals )
Plat refined 1.5 million oz
Net Sales revenue 3780 mill Rd
cost of sales 3190 mill rd
profit on sales 590
5.68 * 16.5/32 = about 3 mill oz total metals
3 mill - 1.5 = 1.5 mill oz pallad,rhodium,ni produced as
byproducts
( report does not give relative amounts )
Assume mix of byproduct metal average price = 1066 R/oz
-thus byproduct offset = 1.5 mill * 1066 = 1600 mill
then 3190 mill - 1600 mill = 1587 mill/1.5 mill plat =
1058 r/oz and voila 1058/4.5 = 235$/oz
the problem with your numbers in your ( 1 ) and ( 2 )
is that in ( 1 ) the Byproduct revenue must be
ADDED BACK to equal the approx total cost of 3100 mill.
These numbers are from the Anglos Preliminary
Annual Report for 1997 - if you still have questions
suggest you contact their auditors.
I have some small remaining questions about whether
the Head grade includes nickel or is only palladium and
rhodium as the byproduct credit is a bit bigger than
I can resolve. But I am satified the numbers are
accurate within the range Im used to - they are
not out by a factor of 2!!!!!!!. I hope your head
is better today. Now mine hurts.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 04:05
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - December gold up 70 cents on DBC. JOBERG gold index up 0.8%. Looks like another good day for gold and gold stocks.
BULL Market; Agree that bullion is headed back to $375, probably by October, certainly by early 1998.. But that is only the first way station in a move to much higher levels by the millenium. - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 03:09
Jack Supersonic missles>(Supersonic missles): -
Russia is poised to send supersonic missles to middle ?
and asia - per Janes. Very short script in Financial Times Scroll down a bit through articals.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/ftupdate.htm - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 02:14
Observer of the Earth>(of the Earth): - A person posted something about the feast of the dragon back in late
June. Cherokee has now posted thoughts of diabolical consequense. Forget
about the Bay of Pigs, we are in for some real fan hitting when this
dragon starts swinging.
Also strategic investment by IMF to bail out Thailand. In the esteemed
words of fellow Kitcoites, Things are really hotting up! - Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 00:57
Mooney @Ron>(@Ron): - Ron - Re your 11:10 of Aug.7 - You are right - I made a quick post without geting the multiplication correct! Now, as to the reason for the purchase. I still believe that it is just a wager. Silver does not have to go to $3.50 for the participant to double, triple or even quintuple their initial investment. If, for example, Silver, ( which had just had a $.20 down day ) , were to continue on the downward path another $.40, then the option price per ounze might go to $.20 or $.25, in which case the fund, or whoever, would be able to cash in for a quick profit in the hundreds of per cent. Risk/Reward ratio of 4 or 5 and LOTS of time left in which to hope, pray and exercise. :- )
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 00:51
Paul Friend of Big Earl>(Friend of Big Earl): - re: bull market....what is it you are drinking? I need some too.
- Date: Fri Aug 08 1997 00:03
bull market petgmat@sprynet.com>(petgmat@sprynet.com): - A LOT OF OPTIMISM DOWN IN LAS VEGAS, I THINK THIS IS THE BOTTOM FOR THE JUNIORS I SEE A BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD OF US GOLD IS BACK ON ITS WAY TO$375,ANY THOUGHTS ?
