- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:57
DJ St(r)ad Master>(St(r)ad Master): - Sorry, having trouble with my rrrrrrr's tonight.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:53
DJ Charts and quotes>(Charts and quotes): - Machf15 - Thanks. I'll give it a try. May get it done tonight, or may have to participate in a late happy hour.
Stad Master - Right here on Kitco. Bart has added them. Just go the normal 3-day gold chart. Click on Platinum or Palladium ( or Silver ) in the title. It's great to be able to watch the action as the overseas markets open. Note the violent action on the Tokyo opening ( 1-hour before Hong Kong opens ) .
http:///gold.graph.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:45
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - GVC -- I know that we called a short term turn in the gold for Tuesday, which happened, but I'm curious what your take on it's longevity is. I think just tomorrow and maybe a piece of Monday short term, then see where it goes from there. Maybe see a high near 330 ( +/- a few dimes ) before a fall-back. Your thoughts?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:41
Ted @zzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzz): - EBN Gold down .80 and silver @ unch.....Good night ALL...
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:37
GVC @Schippi>(@Schippi): - SCHIPPI: I must respectfully agree and disagree with you in regards to FSAGX vs FDPMX. No question that FSAGX has strongly outperformed FDPMX over the last year to year and a half, BUT, when the trend changes and gold begins a meaningful rally, so will the trend change for which fund will outperform. The South African exposure will give FDPMX an added boost when the golden bear turns into a bull, IMHO.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:08
Aubrey @zekes.com>(@zekes.com): - Schippi
Will we test $320 Dec gold on friday?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:07
Strad Master Asian quotes?>(Asian quotes?): - DJ: I can't help you with the charts but maybe you can help me. Where are you getting your Asian Market PA and Pl quotes? Thanks in advance.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:02
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - DJ,
That should be http://www.tucows.com - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:01
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - DJ,
You can use the edit function on the toolbar and copy the graph. Once you have copied it, you can paste it onto a graphic viewer program such as Lview or Darkroom. If you don't have one of these programs, e-mail it to me and I will convert it to the right format and e-mail it back to you. Or you can go to http:\\www.tucows.com and find a graphic viewer that will save the graph in a gif or jpg format. Good luck
Machf15 - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:00
Savage ? and a comment>(? and a comment): - ALL: What's with Gary North story?CAPNKEV & CHEROKEE: Just completed 1200 mile trip thru Illinois and Indiana ( top to bottom ) , with a foray into Ohio...corn crop extremely thick, a little dry, but if the weather cooperates with a little rain it's going to be one heck of a harvest ( here in the Mid-West ) ...barring disease of course. BART: That's GOLDen ear corn of course, muchas gracias!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 23:00
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Earl -- You've got mail. No postage due.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 22:56
DJ Asia is back!>(Asia is back!): - PA and PL moving up smartly in the asian markets. Gold stabile. Check out Bart's new charts.
Any help re: Excel charts?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 22:35
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): -
AUBRY......
My take on the yellow stuff, is that most of
the downside risk has been taken out, by the low
commodity prices and the selling pressure by the various
countries and banks. My OPINION at the moment is that
it's a good time to buy. I have very substantial positions
in FSAGX and FDPMX. But I think FSAGX is the better choice
of these two funds.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 22:35
Shek unrelated to gold>(unrelated to gold): - Where can I find the latest price of copper.
Thanks - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 22:25
DJ Chart-aches>(Chart-aches): - Does anyone know how to convert an Excel chart into a Kitco-compatible chart? I have a very interesting chart I'd like to share with you.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 22:05
Lan Man @Closing Bell>(@Closing Bell): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher
Thursday, after expectations for more losses were confounded early
by continued buying by one or two investment banks, forcing locals
and funds to cover short positions.
Its pretty nervous out there, people are a little bit confused at
these levels ( in gold ) , Credit Lyonnais Rouse New York chief
bullion dealer Scott Mehlman said. Overall the market is still
looking for lower prices, but people are less willing to stick
their necks out on the short side until things settle down a bit,
he said. Gold looks like its trying to build a base around $320
( in COMEX December gold ) , with $317-318 on the bottom and $324-325
on the top and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of those prices
trade.
North American gold equities, sometimes a leading indicator for
the gold price, continued to recover Thursday, with the
Philadelphia Stock Exchange's gold and silver mining sector index
( .XAU ) edging up to a session high at 99.05 points, its highest
level since June 20.
COMEX September silver ended 4.2 cents at $4.375 an ounce, after
finding some support Wednesday around $4.30, following a slide
earlier in the week from over $4.50. The spot gold/silver ratio
was little changed around 73.2-to-1.
NYMEX platinum and palladium futures also found some support after
two days of sharp falls. The sharp downward correction in PGM
prices this week was not unexpected, analysts said, as PGM prices
had rallied quickly in July, taking palladium prices back up to 17
year highs and platinum prices back up to near the seven year
highs seen June.
But there was still an acute shortage of metal in the physical
market, which was not being alleviated by the modest amounts of
metal coming out of Russia. Russia resumed exports of PGMs last
month, after a six month suspension.
For the full text story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4332327-c79
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 318.10 322.50 318.10 321.50 +3.30 414.50 314.60
Oct97 320.00 324.70 320.00 323.70 +3.30 426.50 316.80
Dec97 322.40 327.00 322.40 325.80 +3.30 456.50 318.50
Feb98 325.00 327.90 325.00 327.80 +3.20 424.00 322.50
Jun98 331.00 331.00 331.00 332.00 +3.10 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 21175
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 431.00 439.00 431.00 437.50 +4.20 576.00 418.00
Dec97 437.50 445.50 437.50 443.90 +4.30 701.90 424.00
Mar98 449.00 451.00 448.00 450.10 +4.30 573.00 432.00
May98 452.50 452.50 452.50 454.10 +4.30 564.00 437.00
Jul98 455.00 455.00 455.00 458.10 +4.30 610.00 438.00
Est. Sales 6123
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 207.00 213.00 205.25 212.50 _3.10 227.60 128.75
Dec97 199.00 203.50 195.60 201.50 _6.10 219.60 120.25
Est. Sales 1339
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 426.00 437.00 426.00 432.60 +1.60 463.70 355.50
Jan98 418.50 426.00 418.50 423.10 +1.60 454.00 360.00
Est. Sales 3710
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 22:05
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Cherokee: Ominous news. What is the source of the Chinese generals speech?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 21:41
Ted @cherokee>(@cherokee): - Welcome back dude!....ain't Steely Dan great....
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 21:36
vronsky FOR PRECIOUS METALS COLLECTORS>(FOR PRECIOUS METALS COLLECTORS): - Dr. Randel Burns provides an overview of building a precious metals collection of various forms of bullion. He gives useful ‘tips’ & caveats for serious collector. Interesting read:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/burns806.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 21:22
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - CHEROKEE: The Chinese general you are quoting says it all. Many of course will not believe these Chinese designs as some have already posted here. The politicians will continue to cut our defenses. Others will find reasons to support them. Too bad.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 21:09
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
FSAGX looking GOOD! - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 21:03
Ted @Seinfeld>(@Seinfeld): - EBN Gold down .80....
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:27
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Thailand's rescue...
a few fingers in the dike
of the earthen dam ....
relentless - ?
giving way - ? - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:24
Roebear @RocknRoll>(@RocknRoll): - Gunrunner, YO take a look at this UZI newsies
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970807/news/stories/uzi_1.html
How about it, can I reserve one? - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:20
nomercy Thailand>(Thailand): - Japan to extend up to $7 bln in aid to
Thailand
Japan has decided to contribute a maximum $7 billion in lending through
the Export-Import Bank of Japan to a $20 billion international support
package for Thailand, government sources said. Details of the relief
package, designed to stabilize the beleaguered Thai currency, were
completed Wednesday.
The International Monetary Fund will offer $4 billion in standby credit,
while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank will each put up
$1 billion in medium- to long-term credit.
The Ex-Im Bank will offer a $6 billion loan, bringing the total to the $12
billion minimum amount Thailand said it would need.
Private financial institutions, including Japanese ones, are prepared to put
up another $5 billion, the sources said.
Japanese officials plan to meet later this week in Tokyo with counterparts
from other Asian countries to enlist their financial aid for Thailand, the
sources added.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:19
Byron @ Still Here:>(@ Still Here:): - Donald: One foot out the door. No thanks. I've printed both articles for reading later. Now really gone ~poof~
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:18
vronsky THE INGER MARKET FORECAST - August 7, 1997>(THE INGER MARKET FORECAST - August 7, 1997): - Trader says “The missing word for the stock market is “awesome”... which best describes extraordinary upside action. It seems Public views market profits as ENTITLEMENTS - Must RELOAD Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:17
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Albania housed secret CIA spy plane base. Clinton implies financial help will be provided.
http://web.albaniannews.com/albaniannews/headline/d1/text003.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:06
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup): - DAVID: Markets out of rhyme will correct themselves in time. EB: I did get a flashback once walking down 5th Avenue at around 30th street in Manhattan one hot summer day. I think it may have been the smell of deisel fuel what did it. I'm ok., thank God. I did door gunner duty on some hueys only for a while. Did other things along the Cambodian border. Thanks for thinkin' of us vets. Any war. It's all shit. But it's life, I guess. LELAND: that was the fabulous Shel Silverstein cartoon Now here's my plan. A great graphic wit, Shel.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:04
Byron @ Good Night:>(@ Good Night:): - Donald: That last one did it. Now I got a headache. I'm out of here. Nite all.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:02
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: I was able to read it, as will everyone ( but you? ) . Did you want me to lift the whole article and post it also?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 20:01
cherokee @china-korea>(@china-korea): - a recent comment by a top general in china
says it all. he said---
that china had been quietly preparing for a
naval war with the us. they have acquired
a capability in both armament and technology
that is close to their future adversary. he also stated that
there would be another conflict ( war ) which
would prevent the us from maintaining dual
fronts with any degree of success. china has
recently demonstrated her capabilities around
taiwan with the world as her audience. why?
china has the resources, manpower, and historical
scars to enable her to begin her quest for
the seat that now sits vacant-
---world-super-power------
steely-dan warned of riding the dragon-
this dragon will not be saddled nor riden,
as they hold the reigns and cat-o-nine-tails.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ( Comment by Donald. If these guys are seriously involved in the gold market there is no way you are going to find out about it )
Agreement between the Swiss
Federal Council and the Bank
for International Settlements to
determine the Bank's legal
status in Switzerland
( of 10th February 1987 )
The Swiss Federal Council
of the one part, and
The Bank for International Settlements
of the other part
Having regard to the Convention of 20th January 1930 respecting the
Bank for International Settlements, the Constituent Charter and Statutes
of the Bank, and the Protocol of 30th July 1936 regarding the
immunities of the Bank for International Settlements;
Desiring, in the light of the practice followed since 1930, to settle their
mutual relationships in a Headquarters Agreement;
Have agreed upon the following provisions:
I. Status, privileges and immunities of the Bank
Article 1
Legal personality
The Swiss Federal Council acknowledges the international legal
personality and the legal capacity within Switzerland of the Bank for
International Settlements ( hereinafter referred to as the Bank ) .
Article 2
Freedom of action of the Bank
1. The Swiss Federal Council shall guarantee to the Bank the autonomy
and freedom of action to which it is entitled as an international
organisation.
2. In particular, it shall grant to the Bank, as well as to its member
institutions in their relations with the Bank, absolute freedom to hold
meetings, including freedom of discussion and decision.
Article 3
Inviolability
1. The buildings or parts of buildings and surrounding land which,
whoever may be the owner thereof, are used for the purposes of the
Bank shall be inviolable. No agent of the Swiss public authorities may
enter therein without the express consent of the Bank. Only the
President, the General Manager of the Bank, or their duly authorised
representative shall be competent to waive such inviolability.
2. The archives of the Bank and, in general, all documents and any data
media belonging to the Bank or in its possession, shall be inviolable at all
times and in all places.
3. The Bank shall exercise supervision of and police power over its
premises.
Article 4
Immunity from jurisdiction and execution
1. The Bank shall enjoy immunity from criminal and administrative
jurisdiction, save to the extent that such immunity is formally waived in
individual cases by the President, the General Manager of the Bank, or
their duly authorised representative.
2. Disputes arising in matters of employment relations between the Bank
and its Officials or former Officials, or persons claiming through them,
shall be settled by the Administrative Tribunal of the Bank. The Board of
Directors of the Bank shall determine the constitution of the
Administrative Tribunal, which shall have exclusive and final jurisdiction.
Matters of employment relations shall be deemed to include all questions
relating to the interpretation or application of contracts between the
Bank and its Officials concerning their employment, of the regulations to
which the said contracts refer, and in particular of the provisions
governing the Bank's pension scheme and other welfare arrangements
provided by the Bank.
3. In all other civil and commercial matters the Bank may be proceeded
against in any court of competent jurisdiction, save in those cases in
which provision for arbitration has been or shall have been made.
4. The assets of the Bank may be subject to measures of compulsory
execution for enforcing monetary claims. On the other hand, all deposits
entrusted to the Bank, all claims against the Bank and the shares issued
by the Bank shall, without the prior agreement of the Bank, be immune
from seizure or other measures of compulsory execution and
sequestration, particularly of attachment within the meaning of Swiss
law.
[...]
Article 9
Free disposal of funds and freedom to conduct operations
1. The Bank may receive, hold, convert and transfer all funds, gold,
currency, cash and other transferable securities, and dispose freely
thereof, and generally carry out without any restriction all the operations
permitted by its Statutes, both within Switzerland and in its relations with
foreign countries.
2. As regards its operations on the Swiss market, the Bank shall
nevertheless be obliged to confer with the Swiss National Bank in
accordance with Article 19 of the Bank's Statutes. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:53
DJ 1+1= 2 or 4 (your choice)>(1+1= 2 or 4 (your choice)): - John Disney - I know I should just accept your last cost numbers for the rustplats group and leave it at that. I'm sure many Kitco-ites have had enough. But being me, I keep trying to reconcile all the various numbers you have posted, without success.
Take Rustenburg as an example. You can calculate the total cost of all platinum mined, after credit for the by-product metals two different ways, but the results should be the same. All references to ounces are platinum ounces only.
1 ) 1058R/oz x 1.5Moz = 1587MR
2 ) 200R/ton x 16.75Mtons = 3350MR
If 1 ) is correct, then either the cost in Rands/ton is overstated by roughly a factor of 2, or the number of tons mined is overstated by a factor of 2.
If 2 ) is correct, assuming the number of ounces is correct, the cost/oz is understated by a factor of 2.
I quit. My head hurts. I'll wait until I see an annual report.
Re: s/d, I think you are the right track. If you could expand this to fill 20 pages and add some flowery prose, you too could sell it for $5,000. Easier than trying to make money playing these crazy markets. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:48
Byron @ And Further:>(@ And Further:): - Donald: Also, one more thing, when you get to that report from the gold show and as you get to the end, you will see a highlighted Special Report. Click on that and it will give you another and different report from the Gold Show. Hope this works. These text only internet computers are dinasours!!...: (
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:41
Donald @Home>(@Home): - VRONSKY: This URL will give you access to Central Bank websites all over the world.
http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:36
refer flux>(flux): - It's good to see cherokee is back sending us smoke signals! Missed your posts.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:35
Speed @home>(@home): - Yo Cherokee: The Chinese navy ain't ready for the U.S fleet. They can modernize for another 50 years and still not be ready. Any encounter with the U.S. Navy will be exciting, brutal, nasty and short. Go Squids.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:34
Byron @ The Pulbic Library>(@ The Pulbic Library): - Donald: I was able to locate that Speicaly Report from the Gold Show In Las Vegas at the URL I picked up from the SI Forum. Still need to click on Gold In Las Vegas button. ( ^-^ ) Meow.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Statement by the Federal Reserve Bank on Y2K.
http://www.bis.org/review/index.htm - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:26
George Cole nitty gritty>(nitty gritty): - John Disney: Is this the nitty gritty in SA
South Africa's Monopolies
Date:
Wed, 6 Aug 1997 19:16:49 -0400
I mentioned earlier the frequent reports in the world press that
South Africa is one of the world's most thoroughly monopolized countries,
i.e., that 5 corporations there account for some 80% of its national income.
Janine Erasmus of the Development Bank of South Africa--she doesn't tell us
whether it is owned by one of those 5 corporate giants--takes issue with
that figure.
In the New York Times of 3/2/96 ( p. 21 ) , the account begins this
way: The South African economy is Teddy Roosevelt's nightmare--what
America might look like if the trusts had never been busted... Nearly 80% of
private industry is controlled by 5 super-conglomerates. Cartels in some
industries, like diamonds, operate openly. In staples like beer and sugar,
1 or 2 producers dominate the market and set prices. Goods that Americans
take for granted, from steaks to new cars to televisions, are so expensive
that the average South African cannot afford them.
The country is fortunate in one respect: It has a researcher--one
somewhat reminiscent of our Ralph Nader--who puts out each year a fat book
that reports on the status of South Africa's monopolies, Robin McGregor.
Entitled Who Owns Whom, Mr. McGregor's annual publication is said to be
the standard reference work on South African business. According to the
Times: It is dull reading, and the way he compiles it is prosaic. He buys
one share in every company in southern Africa, collecting all the annual
reports and poring over them. He also clips virtually every article in the
nation's financial press. With this information, he is able to pierce the
ranks of dummy companies--450 at last count--that rich South Africans erect
to conceal what they own.
The result he reports from the country's concentrated ownership is
price-fixing, excessive secrecy, stultifying bureaucracy, lackluster
research, protectionist tariffs. Its biggest company, the Anglo American
Corporation, oversees the world diamond cartel, mines much of the world's
gold and generates 25% of the nation's gross domestic product. Anglo,
controlled by the Oppenheimer family of South Africa, owns the De Beers
and Minorco mining companies; First National, the country's biggest bank;
Southern Life, one of the biggest insurers; numerous office parks, and at
least one significant player in every sector of the economy. They own
their own suppliers: steel, tools, explosives, even paint. Their
subsidiaries have so little competition that they aren't efficient... You
look at the streets--people go home at half-past 4 o'clock. There's no
competitiveness. There aren't any entrepreneurs. As a former manager of a
small sugar mill, I was negotiating for apple cartons with 3 supplies. The
quotes I got were the same down to the 7th decimal place. They didn't even
try to disguise it.
Mr. McGregor, who espouses very American ideas like aggressive
antitrust laws, believed in 1996 that there is a new wind blowing in Mr.
Mandela's government, that there will be antitrust laws, and the
conglomerates will unbundle. He couldn't have been more wrong. Why would
South Africa's 5 great monopolies, with their vast wealth, allow something
so trifling as a political revolution to rupture their vast flows of wealth?
They didn't. They bought Mandela's incoming government--by making instant
millionaires of his political lieutenants.
This story is told in the New York Times of 9/24/96 ( p. C1 ) . Those
5 corporations that control 80% of South Africa's economy promptly devised
an ingenious scheme to continue their monopolies under black rule: The
entire black LEADERSHIP--several thousand people--was individually sold
large blocks of corporate stock at a 10% discount with payment for those
shares deferred. In short, the country's new black leadership--virtually
all now millionaires--was neatly co-opted, BRIBED into preserving and
protecting the very same monopolies the nation had endured under apartheid.
There will be no antitrust in South Africa. Its monopolies endure. Making
millionaires of a few thousand black leaders is a trifling cost of doing
business, one that lets the billions keep flowing in to a handful of
families. Is Mandela personally on the take from the infamous 5? It
doesn't matter. He's allowed them to buy his government. Monopoly wins in
South Africa.
Charles Mueller, Editor
ANTITRUST LAW & ECONOMICS REVIEW
http://webpages.metrolink.net/~cmueller
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:19
Byron @ The Cat's Meow:>(@ The Cat's Meow:): - Donald: I'll take whatever works!!...I noticed some Las Vegas Gold Show news on DBC. I'm at a text only computer right now so I don't have a direct URL. But at http://www.dbc.com click on DBC News. Next click on DBC Stockwatch and then Gold in Las Vegas. ...This I picked up from SI don't know if it will work: http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/stwatch.html?source=core/dbc
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:15
Roebear @Catsoncemore>(@Catsoncemore): - Donald, one more word after many years as a dog and cat fancier I believe Himalayans are the most personable and lovable cats I have ever had the pleasure to fancy. I am way off the subject !: ) )
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:14
George Cole The majors and the minors>(The majors and the minors): - Donald and DJ: Thanks for the kudos! By month's end we shall know whether they are deserved.
I now repeat a statement from an earlier post. Don't be short gold when the dollar tops out!
The action today was very encouraging, but still too early to say with certainty that the tide has turned. XAU needs to break out with conviction and on heavy volume. Today's volume was about average. Genuine gold bulls always are accompanied by heavy volume in ALL the majors and many of the minors. I think we will see this soon, but no cigar yet.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:11
Roebear @Donald>(@Donald): - Donald, how about HepCat, that was a catalyst indeed!: )
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:09
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Bank of Korea to supply 4.3 Trillion Won in August. Can anyone recommend and good Korean Paper and Ink stocks to me?
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0808/m0808b01.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:09
Roebear @Miro>(@Miro): - Miro: It may be your HO, but I have saved it. Just keep us posted as things go along to that great millenial party. Those of us that like to speculate in the true sense of the word will love the volatility as long as we are kept well informed by those struggling with the problem. I believe you did say you work in this field; I look forward to your future posts. Thanks.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 19:00
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Here is your Catalyst:
1. Siamese 2. Persian 3. Manx
Let me know if you need a dogalyst too. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:49
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - BW: I knew someone would catch my mistake. I should have said Silver
Eagles at 50 cents over dealer cost. Sometimes I think that nature
endowed me with above average mistakes.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:48
David goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Reason Returns, Just In Time
Is the U.S. Bond market encountering indigestion ?
Is the U.S. Dollar @ 'exhaustion' ?
Is the S&P approaching it ?
Did the Comex Aug. gold contract close @ a new low, yesterday, while Silver, the Xau, Platinum, Paladium ... did not? ... And thus did not confirm the recent downtrend; but instead, signal a change in trend, and a new bull-chapter, for gold & silver related investments ... ( ? ) .
Who was it who said: Pride goeth before the fall. ...?
( from Inv. Business Daily, 8/7/97, p. B1: )
Fed Critics Cancel Meeting
The Fed and its policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee are doing such a good job that the gadfly Shadow Open Market Committee has decided to cancel its usual September meeting, the SOMC's leader announced. The Shadow group of monetary-oriented economists has met every six months since September 1973 ( ! ) . But its chairman, Allan Meltzer, states in an Aug. 1 letter: 'Currently we see no reason to meet.'
...
Now, isn't this curious; sort of like: 'as Nero fiddles, Rome burns'. Isn't it even more curious that when the economy is going all to hell ( --as it will be, again, and soon ) ; everyone has someone to blame. And when the economy is growing, or appears to be so; eager voices abound to take credit for it, &/or pat one another on the back -- for the feigned credit due, and/or otherwise, willingly look the other way.
So, as 'mother-nature', pushed once more to the limit, loses patience with our folly, one more time; reason will return, but only with considerable surprise, and pain, once again. Markets out of balance, out of 'rhyme' with reality, will correct themselves, in this time. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:33
china? @what-next?>(@what-next?): - china has been caught buying influence in us gov't.
china has been caught using the port that ( OUR gov't
gave china instead of our own marines ) used to be a
naval base in california to trans-ship tractor-trailer
loads of heavy armament into s. america ( mexico ) .
china has operatives ( spies ) stealing and buying our
technology to be reverse-engineered so as to subvert
our patent and technological bases, and give their
technology base a quantam leap in high-tech r&d.
they are exporting missle, biological, nuclear, and terrorist
capabilities to their co-horts in the hot-spots around the world.
one of their top generals recently was quoted as saying that
china had been pursuing a massive ( quiet ) up-grading of their naval
and air-forces with the intent of defeating the US fleet
that has dominated their sphere of influence since ww11.
he also noted that such an attack would be predicated by
another military action against the us in another part of
the world. ( iraq? israel? korea )
their recent show of strength using modern naval and missle
technology demonstrated their resolve that the world will
take note of them, and their intents ( historical ) , one way
or another.
as the us continues to down-size their military AND its'
capabilities, our attested enemies who openly vow to destroy
our country and all who love freedom, continue to feign
weakness, while building the machinations of death
and destruction.
the recent gulf war raises one question over and over.
why did iraq not fight back? look at the casualties
suffered by the coalition. very few for this type
of war? do turkey shoots exist in ANY military ( modern )
arena?
could the west have been GIVEN a great victory over an evil
entity monopolizing OUR oil? this would have also given a
false perception of the invincibility of our high-tech
smart weapons relative to the soviets arsenals. two false
perceptions. our great victory, our military superiority.
there were many reports ( military ) during the gulf war, of soviet
observers and training forces, being spotted and recorded
over radios. was this war given the ok from some
other taskmasters? did russia and/or china broker
this and the up-coming korean and mid-east conflict
to determine our capabilities and sow the seeds of
invincibility? as our pilots are shot from the sky,
and our tankers destroyed in the desert, we shall realize,
knowledge is power, and our complacency has cost us our all, cost us our all.
we have been lulled like the herds of lemmings that we are,
into an accident waiting for a freight train.
the enemies of freedom have drawn a line in the sand of time.....
any rogue wave can, at any time, change the perspective of every
sentient being on earth, in an instant.....the line has been
split into a chasm of chaos.
what is your perspective, and where will you put it when
CHAOS AND FLUX come to kix some bux
cherokee!; ) friend-of-the-wind, sender and receiver of smoke-signals,
and driver of the ssmfat
.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:25
bw Re: Leland, silver eagles>(Re: Leland, silver eagles): - Leland: Could you please tell me who is selling silver eagles at spot plus 50 cents? Thanks.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:23
Byron @Knocking At The 98th Gate:>(@Knocking At The 98th Gate:): - Still hanging around that 98 XAU level on the close. Wonder what everyone is waiting or looking for. Newmont continues to creep ahead and also the HUI Index.....A catalyst, a catalyst, my gold hoard for a catalyst.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 18:07
bw Economic Growth:>(Economic Growth:): - Many of the worlds economies seem to be doing well as we flare up before the coming darkness ( even as their balance sheets continue to deteriorate ) . There are several prominent exceptions however, Japan, Germany, Korea, Russia and perhaps others. What these laggards seem to me to have in common is, they cannot or will not import cheap labor. For Japan especially it must be almost madding, they print the paper and stagnate, we borrow the paper, buy the cheap labor and seem to prosper.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Analysis: A hole of Thailand's own making
THURSDAY AUGUST 7 1997
Ted Bardacke wonders whether an IMF deal will be enough to revive
Thailand's economy
Holes are a common sight in Thailand. There are holes in the streets, where
relays of workers dig up sewers or install fibre-optic telephone lines.
Larger holes are found on the highways, where overweight trucks are
allowed by bribed policemen to ply the thoroughfares.
Now, suddenly, comes the biggest hole yet - one in the public accounts.
This has so far cost $20bn and shows signs of getting bigger.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Thailand detailed parts of an economic reform
package designed to obtain between $12bn and $15bn in emergency
credits from the International Monetary Fund. Simultaneously, it
announced it had lent, apparently in the same chaotic way that other holes
are created, nearly $16bn to the finance companies it has now declared
insolvent. Another $3bn in public money has been spent to bail out the
fraud-ridden Bangkok Bank of Commerce over the past 18 months.
In addition to all that came yesterday's guarantee - worth at least $7bn and
perhaps as much as $31bn - to protect all depositors and creditors at
both the suspended and operating finance companies. In all, the size of
Thailand's financial system bailout is comparable to the US Savings &
Loan debacle.
Little wonder then that the country was forced to turn to the IMF. But after
botching last month's flotation of the baht, the fact that the government had
to be dragged to the negotiating table must cast doubts on its real
commitment to reform.
I have never seen Thailand in such a serious crisis, Mr Anand
Panyarachun told reporters this week. And he should know: twice this
decade he was appointed prime minister after bloody military coups.
He added that there is nowhere else in this world where people have lost
all faith in their own government and prefer their financial and monetary
affairs to be managed by the IMF.
The frustration of influential intellectuals and economists was, in large part,
due to the belief that the Thai government could have forestalled the crisis
on its own. The belief is that it should not have waited so long to float the
baht and then to announce measures to deal with the aftermath of its 20
per cent fall.
By most economists' reckoning, at the start of the year the country faced
no imminent balance of payments crisis. The currency was not seriously
overvalued, the first budget deficit in a decade was going to be manageable
and international financial markets were giving Thailand some breathing
space. If at that point the government had taken some tough decisions - by
introducing more flexibility to the baht, cutting government spending and
being tough with insolvent financial institutions - it would have rescued the
economy on its own with less pain.
But a government that came to power by spending nearly $1bn to buy
votes was not going to trample on vested interests voluntarily.
Politicians are quite happy not taking decisions that are painful. That has
been the theme of this entire year, says Mr Ammar Siamwalla of the
Thailand Development Research Institute, an independent think-tank.
What preceded the devaluation was total incompetence.
Some in Thailand are worried that by, in effect, farming out the difficult
economic decisions to the IMF, the government will never learn to tackle
difficult issues on its own. There is a fear that, once the economy gets back
on its feet, the government will fall into past patterns. This would risk
turning Thailand into a boom-and-bust country more akin to Latin America
in the 1970s than other south-east Asian tigers.
In a couple of years we will be back in business, although it won't be due
to the government, Mr Ammar says.
Most analysts agree with Mr Ammar's contention that it will be at least two
years before Thailand, one of the world's fastest growing economies
between 1986 and 1996, can rejoin the ranks of the tiger cubs. Corporate
Thailand has borrowed more money, both in absolute terms and as a
percentage of gross domestic product, than its south-east Asian
neighbours. Its domestic interest payments as a percentage of GDP are
three times those of Mexico's at the time of the peso devaluation,
according to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
When Thailand's non-performing loans rise as a result of IMF-approved
belt-tightening, the pressure on the government's balance sheet is going to
grow further. This is not lost on other south-east Asian countries trying
both to learn from Thailand and distance themselves from it at the same
time.
Long-term prospects for Thailand are good. But . . . we must never let
this happen to us, Mr Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's deputy prime
minister, told a gathering on Sunday to commemorate that country's
National Day.
Yesterday, some commercial banks experienced a run on their deposits
prompting a return of rumours, categorically denied by the central bank,
that a number of small banks could also be shut down.
But even if the Bank of Thailand's assurances are to be believed - difficult
for some who have seen the institution reverse course with tidal regularity -
brokerage W.I. Carr estimates that by closing down half of the financial
institutions the central bank has locked up 10 per cent of the financial
system's deposits and 15 per cent of its assets. This will deprive the
already cash-strapped manufacturing companies of much needed liquidity.
The impact on the real economy is going to be very, very large, says Mr
Warut Siwasariyanon, head of research at ING Barings in Bangkok.
Companies and financial institutions are just hoarding cash right now.
There isn't much scope for interest rates to come down for the next 6 to 9
months, he says.
Thai officials say this is now the IMF's problem. They have declared
victory and retreated. Believing he has won the economic battle by calling
up reinforcements, Mr Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the prime minister, is now
moving on to the even trickier problem of political reform.
He is seeking to muster support for a new constitution, designed to reduce
the influence of money in politics and create a more accountable and
professional government. This, the optimists hope, will provide the political
support that economic reformers in Thailand will need. A draft version of
the constitution goes to parliament next month.
Getting the charter passed will once again require difficult and painful
decisions. Many politicians, including members of General Chavalit's
coalition, could see their lucrative careers ended by political reform.
I am optimistic the new constitution will pass. It won't completely clean up
politics but it won't be as bad as it is now, says Mr Ammar. But I don't
know where in between those two options it will fall.
Thai government unveils tough economic reforms
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:51
Miro micro-t getting ready>(micro-t getting ready): - Micro-t: I would not dare to give somebody advice how to handle his/her
financial affairs but I can express my opinion. Y2K should be handled
as any other even which may bring some disruption into financial system.
I think that the stock market will feel the Y2K impact in 1999 and one
should not be in it at that time. Electronic transaction should not be
affected before the end of 1999 - after that, I would suggest that you
have some cash to handle your financial affairs ( just to be on a safe
side in a case when there is a problem with accepting you check or
credit card by retail and service outfits ) . I don’t think that there
is a reason for keeping all your money under your mattress. There may
be a temporary problem to get to your account and some banks may go
under. For that reason I would not keep a significant amount in a
single financial institution ( e.g., famous $100K limit insured by feds ) ,
spread it around , and have some cash to get you through ( just in case )
I would increase a gold reserve in my portfolio ( be it bullion or coins )
to more that the usual recommended amount of 5-10%. Many people talk
about putting money into hard assets ( RE, boats, etc ) I think I would
rather have cash ready to buy it when things get bad. People who lost
all money in stock market crash, or it disappeared with failing bank,
will be selling hard assets for nothing.
As far as major mutual fund companies go ( e.g. Fidelity ) I think they
will be Y2K ready, however, as with banks you may have a temporary
problem to get your money out ( so more if there is a run on mutual
funds and everybody trying to get their money out ) . Sure enough, my
mutual funds money won’t be in stocks ( except for PM funds ) . Money
market, treasury securities would be a better bet to carry it over until
things settle down.
Hey, it’s just MHO.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Europe: Lacklustre bonds hold bourses in
check
Originally published: WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6 1997
By Greta Steyn and Jeffrey Brown
Weak debt markets reflecting worries about an upward nudge for US and
German money costs kept most European bourses firmly in check
yesterday.
FRANKFURT moved down below 4,300 on the Dax in early trading,
but eventually overcame worries about weak bonds to close modestly
higher in seasonally dull volume.
Banks were mixed amid continued talk of higher German interest rates, but
Munich Re was in demand and there were a number of firm features
among broader-based engineers and industrials.
The Dax, 4,302.68 at the close of floor trading, had moved up to an
Ibis-indicated 4,325.86 when electronic trading came to an end, a gain of
23.36.
Among engineers Preussag gained DM17.00 to DM564 and Linde was
firm for the second day running, adding DM49.00 at DM1,389 as the
dollar continued to climb against the D-Mark. Veba improved DM1.50 to
DM108.10.
Munich Re led the financial pack, gaining DM112.00 to DM6,850 after
the insurance giant forecast a strong rise for June premiums. Dresdner
Bank shed DM2.25 to DM78.45 and Deutsche 55pfg to DM117.45, but
Commerzbank added DM1.04 at DM62.35.
Volkswagen, initially higher on the news that its Audi unit had notched up
US volume growth of 34 per cent for the first seven months of 1997,
ended DM15.00 lower at DM1,356.50. Porsche, where US sales almost
doubled, lost DM120.00 to DM2,805.
Among second-liners, FAG Kugelfischer gained DM1.20 to DM36.10 on
renewed speculation that SKF of Sweden was teeing up a takeover bid.
Adidas rose DM1.50 to DM216 ahead of today's interim results.
ZURICH had a switchback session that swung from plus 64.0 to minus
47 on the SMI index before finally settling at 5,765.2, up a bare 5.8 on the
day.
UBS was the main talking point, kicking off the banks' half-year reporting
season with a set of results that mostly disappointed. Analysts felt the
earnings surge owed too much to the elimination of restructuring costs. The
shares ended off SFr41.00 at SFr1,627. SBC fell SFr8.00 to SFr408 and
Credit Suisse eased 75 centimes to SFr196. Elsewhere among financials,
insurance group Winterthur jumped SFr24.00 to SFr1,493 on reports that
a leading bank was in the market for the shares.
MILAN edged lower in the face of a number of bright features and the
news that unit trust inflows in July had surged against June. The Mibtel
real-time index closed off 114 at 14,324.
Alitalia was the subject of speculation, gaining L78.50 to L975.4 following
rumours of an imminent link with KLM of the Netherlands. News of a
strategic contract in the far east lifted Pirelli L51.00 to L4,785.
AMSTERDAM succumbed to profit-taking and interest rate jitters to
end barely changed after a firmer start. The AEX index was up only 0.24
to 979.59 as the market remained preoccupied with the strong dollar and
with profit reports.
AEX component Gist-Brocades tumbled 17.6 per cent to Fl 64.90 after it
had said its 1997 profits would be below last year's. The biochemicals and
food group said the price of penicillin had hit a historic low due to
additional capacity in China and India. Volume in the shares, a strong
market in recent weeks, was heavy at almost 3.5m traded.
KLM dipped 40 cents to Fl 76.00 despite better than expected
first-quarter results. The airline climbed to Fl 79.00 initially, but lost its
gains as overall market weakness dragged it down.
The market ignored solid profits from business publisher Wolters Kluwer,
taking its share Fl 5.00 lower to Fl 278.00.
PARIS continued to fret about higher interest rates, but shares bounced
off their lows in thin volumes. The CAC 40 index closing 8.31 down at
2984.10.
Canal Plus fell FFr35.00 to FFr1,100 after a downgrade by brokers CPR
Finance. Générale des Eaux was also hit by a downgrade, shedding
FFr10.00 to FFr730.
The health sector bucked the trend, with Sanofi rising FFr6.00 to
FFr619.00 on positive signals from research and development. The
company is working on new products for the treatment of hypertension
and thrombosis. Air Liquide closed FFr6.00 lower at FFr941. The
company denied that it was in talks to acquire a stake in Indian company
Industrial Oxygen.
Alcatel Alsthom remained at the top of the actives list, closing unchanged
at FFr845. Joint venture GEC Alsthom said it was interested in acquiring
the non-nuclear energy activities of Westinghouse, but it denied speculation
that it was already in talks.
STOCKHOLM closed higher on the back of a rise in index component
Astra, the drugs group, ahead of half-year earnings on Friday. The general
index closed up 22.01 at 3,162.77 on average turnover. Astra attracted
attention after a lacklustre period, rising Skr4.00 to Skr149.50. Telecoms
equipment heavyweight Ericsson firmed in line with its Wall Street
performance but came off highs to close Skr1.50 up at Skr355.50.
Investor, the investment holding company, rose despite Saab Auto
reporting a first-half loss. Investor, which co-owns Saab, gained Skr5.50
to Skr421.00, with the carmaker's losses said to have been discounted. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: Even if it goes beyond 8300 you should be proud. When I was still working I predicted the Japan crash, everyone said I was nuts, ditto the S&L disaster, they still said I was nuts. Then I predicted that the Dow would never reach 7000. The problem is that by then all my friends were begining to believe me. Now I wish I had kept my mouth shut. Well, the Dow should NOT have reached 7000, or 8000, or 8300. But it did.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Asia-Pacific: Kuala Lumpur tumbles 3.4%
on trade gap news
Originally published: WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6 1997
KUALA LUMPUR tumbled 3.4 per cent on news of a large trade deficit
in June to extend its losses over the past two trading days to about 6 per
cent.
Sentiment, damaged on Monday by the central bank's imposition of
selective capital controls to curb currency speculation, weakened further.
The composite index ended 33.48 lower at 945.08.
Telekom Malaysia was down 30 cents to M$8.95 and Malayan Bank
shed M$1.10 to M$23.30. Brokers said there was talk that a leading
hedge fund had sold 200,000 shares in Malayan Bank through Singapore.
The news of the biggest monthly trade deficit in 17 years of M$2.8bn in
June could not have come at a worse time, analysts said.
TOKYO declined for the third day running on continued selling of leading
shares following the recent series of weak economic data, writes Gwen
Robinson.
The Nikkei 225 average fell 153.62 to 19,514.45 after trading between
19,362.44 and 19,767.58.
Growing pessimism about economic direction hit the market from the
outset following negative news from a range of sectors, including domestic
vehicle sales, consumer spending, industrial output and construction orders.
The slide gathered momentum in the early afternoon as blue chip exporters
plunged on profit-taking. Traders noted heavy selling by investment trusts.
However, towards the end of the day bargain-hunters came in to lift the
225 index back above the 19,500 mark.
Volume rose from 339m shares to an estimated 429m. Declines led
advances 716 to 401 with 147 unchanged. The Topix index of all first-
section stocks shed 10.13 to 1,487.13 and the capital-weighted Nikkei
300 was down 2.10 at 290.06.
Many general construction shares touched new lows for the year on
concerns about debt loads and the poor earnings outlook. Obayashi fell
¥24 to ¥650 and Kajima ¥18 to ¥563. Tada, the day's most active issue,
ended at the asked price of ¥7 after filing for bankruptcy protection on July
30.
Carmakers and electrical stocks retreated. Toyota fell ¥130 to ¥3,160,
Honda ¥110 to ¥3,620 and Mazda ¥2 to ¥465. Among
semiconductor-related issues, Advantest fell ¥300 to ¥10,800, Kyocera
¥390 to ¥9,600 and Tokyo Electron ¥260 to ¥7,040. Sony shed ¥100 to
¥11,900. Canon fell ¥100 to ¥3,520. Nikon, however, rose ¥20 to
¥2,120 after reaching a record high of ¥2,180 earlier in the day.
Pharmaceuticals were mixed. Among those to draw buying interest,
Sankyo rose ¥30 to ¥4,120 and Takeda Chemical Industries ¥40 to
¥3,410 . Yamanouchi Pharmaceuticals, however, fell ¥60 to ¥3,010 and
Daiichi Pharmaceuticals ¥80 to ¥2,090.
Nomura Securities fell ¥20 to ¥1,630 after recent gains, and other brokers
also retreated. Banks mostly improved. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi rose
¥30 to ¥2,180, Industrial Bank of Japan ¥20 to ¥1,580 and Fuji Bank
¥10 to ¥1,450. Sumitomo Bank, however, fell ¥20 to ¥1,780.
In Osaka, the OSE slid 178.90 to 20,230.82 and volume rose to 27.6m
shares.
TAIPEI ran into profit-taking following a sharp rise for money market
rates. The weighted index fell 146.08 or 1.45 per cent to 9,919.68 after
touching an intra-day low of 9,914.10. Turnover was light at T$189bn.
Money market rates have risen steeply over the past two days in a clear
attempt by the central bank to bolster the Taiwan dollar. The dollar rallied
yesterday but the monetary tightening took its toll of equities, which have
risen more than 40 per cent this year.
Electronics bore the brunt of the profit-taking. Microchip maker Winbond
fell T$0.50 to T$78 in spite of a dramatic, four-fold profits upgrade.
Financials were also weak. Chiao Tung Bank tumbled T$5.50 to T$74.50
as the government set about reducing its stake from 89 per cent to 60 per
cent.
SEOUL ended higher on foreign buying of blue chips and bargain-hunting
among low cap stocks. The composite index closed up 6.67 at 740.86.
But shares of four units of South Korea's troubled Kia Group plunged on
news that immediate emergency loans to the group were unlikely. Kia
Motors lost Won1,200 to Won14,000, Asia Motors fell Won430 to
Won5,020, Kisan shed Won440 to Won5,170 and Kia Service fell
Won440 won to Won5,060.
Kia Steel bucked the trend, rising Won230 to Won3,140 as investors
continued to signal their approval of last week's news that Hyundai and
Daewoo had agreed in principle to buy a stake in the company.
MANILA was boosted by better than expected inflation data, which lifted
the composite index 36.67 to 2,676.2. Official statistics showed inflation in
July was steady at 4.8 per cent, despite the depreciation of the peso.
Shares of Megaworld Properties jumped 12.7 per cent to 3.10 pesos in
late trade on talk of a possible buy-in.
BANGKOK pared initial losses but still closed with the SET index off
15.35 or 2.3 per cent at 648.47 on turnover of Bt6.7bn.
The low for the session was 634.58.
The shake-out, which extended the market's losing run to four days, was
sparked by the government suspending more troubled financial groups.
BOMBAY swept through the 4,500 mark. The BSE index closed 80.93
higher at 4,546.30 after the latest round of company results came in at the
top end of broker expectations. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:11
George S. Cole forecasts>(forecasts): - DJ: I'll be quite satisfied if my prediction that stocks will peak and the gold bear will end in August proves correct. If 8300 turns out to be the exact top -- that is just icing on the cake.
Interesting that small caps were down just a tad today. When the market rallies again, these probably will be the leaders.
Looks like gold stock investors knew something yesterday that futures traders didn't. Wonder if the rally reflects insider knowledge that more hedge covering announcements are imminent? - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:08
nomercy Iranian press-(a lot of China 'friendly' news)>(Iranian press-(a lot of China 'friendly' news)): - Surgery Adds Stature to Short People in China
BEIJING Chinese tired of being short can turn to Dr. Xia Hetao to make them taller through
limb-lengthening surgery, the China Daily said on Monday. Xia normally performs such operations to
correct limb deformities and dwarfism, but some people unhappy with their height have sought him out to
perform cosmetic surgery, the newspaper said. One such patient included an aspiring model hoping to
reach the height requirement for modelling school, it said. Xia, a professor at the capital University of
Medical Science, succeeded in lengthening the legs of Xiao Min to lift her height to 1.78 meters ( 5 ft 8
inches ) from 1.75 meters ( 5 ft 7 inches ) , enabling her to qualify for the school, it said. Xia, who has added
to the height of more than 100 people since he started the surgery in 1984, said he was not so happy
about performing such cosmetic operations. I am accustomed to using limb-lengthening technology to help
children and adults who have limb length discrepancies due to birth defects, disease or injury, the
newspaper quoted Xia as saying. He lengthens limbs by making cuts in the bones, which are then gradually
pulled apart by metal braces at a rate of 1mm a day. New bone forms at the incision, causing it to grow
longer with up to 5 cm ( two inches ) possible in two months, the newspaper said. The average limb
lengthening is 9.5 cm ( 3.7 inches ) but a maximum growth of 16.5 cm ( 6.5 inches ) has been recorded, it
said. ( Reuter ) - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 17:03
nomercy China- Tehran News>(China- Tehran News): - China Blasts U.S. over Tibet Move
BEIJING ( AFP ) - China yesterday blasted the United States over plans to appoint a special coordinator
for Tibetan affairs, saying it was an uninvited interference in its internal affairs.
No one has received an invitation to do such a `favor' for China, the official China Daily said in a signed
editorial.
No one has even asked China's opinion of such a move, in which the U.S. again takes a hand in another's
domestic affairs, it said.
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee last week that the
coordinator would be tasked with promoting a dialogue between Beijing and the exiled Tibetan spiritual
Leader, the Dalai Lama.
The coordinator would also seek to protect the unique religious, cultural and linguistic heritage of Tibet
along with human rights, she said.
The editorial defended Chinese rule of Tibet, saying large amounts of money had been spent to promote
Tibetan language and culture by restoring religious buildings and opening schools.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - German unemployment hits 4.4 million. Highest in 52 years.
Germany: Unemployment hits a new
post-war record
THURSDAY AUGUST 7 1997
By Ralph Atkins in Bonn
Hopes of a break in the relentless upward trend in German unemployment
were set back by figures showing a 17,000 jump in July's
seasonally-adjusted total to 4.396m - another post-war record.
The increase added to the political difficulties faced by Chancellor Helmut
Kohl following the collapse last week of his government's tax reform plans
and pointed to further difficulties in meeting the financial criteria for
would-be members of the planned European single currency.
It also highlighted a growing imbalance between eastern Germany, where
the economy remains weak in spite of massive investment, and the west,
where there are signs of unemployment stabilising. Mr Bernhard Jagoda,
president of the federal labour office, said there was an increasing
lop-sidedness between the two parts of the country.
However, labour office officials warned that the differences could have
been exaggerated by the transfer of unemployed people registered in west
Berlin from the west German figures into those for the east.
The politically sensitive unadjusted unemployment figure last month rose by
131,800 to 4.354m - a record for the month of July.
Seasonally adjusted figures released by the Bundesbank put eastern
German unemployment at 18.2 per cent of the workforce, up from 17.8
per cent in June. For the west, the figure fell to 9.8 per cent from 9.9 per
cent the previous month.
The gloomier-than-expected numbers reversed growing expectations that
the Bundesbank would soon try to raise short term interest rates to shore
up a weak D-Mark.
However, it is likely that later this month Bonn will have to revise upwards
its forecast that unemployment will average 4.285m this year. In turn, that
could signal fresh difficulties for Germany in meeting the public sector
deficit target of 3 per cent of gross domestic product for countries wishing
to join the proposed single European currency.
Even if unemployment remained unchanged during the last five months of
1997, the jobless total would average 4.36m, said Mr Robert Prior-
Wandesforde, European economist at HSBC James Capel in London.
The difference compared with the government forecast would add 0.1 per
cent of gross domestic product to the budget deficit, he added.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:49
nomercy Thailand- a run on deposits and more>(Thailand- a run on deposits and more): - We cannot afford to allow the remaining 15 banks and 33
finance companies to fall or the entire system will collapse, Gen
Chavalit said. You must believe in the Government. His
comment last night contrasted sharply with his earlier statement
after his three hour meeting the economic advisory team chaired
by Chatichai Choonhavan, the Chart Pattana leader.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/0708_news01.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean tax receipts well below forecasts.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0808/m0808b03.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:36
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Mooney ( 9:51 ) I don't!!! Once a week....usually Saturday!...Nailz: I leave da seals alone....Tort-Donald: good bread!....The garden is goin great guns and veggies,soy sauce,ginger,garlic,and whole wheat noodles on the menu...sprinkled with HOT pepper...speakin of which...BBL!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:32
nomercy Aussies -Unemployment problems>(Aussies -Unemployment problems): - They'll regrett selling their gold
Friday, August 8, 1997
Jobless queue jumps 23,000
By PAUL CLEARY, Economics Correspondent
The number of unemployed rose by 23,300 people in July, pushing the unemployment rate back to 8.7 per cent as
the Federal Government conceded the job market was flat and the task ahead long and difficult.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:25
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Was outside doin chores all day and what a nice surprise to come in and see gold had a nice little rally ( up 3.30 ) and the XAU was up .87....Don't know about gold but I'm still gettin the feelin that the LOW is in for the XAU.......that's my un-educated guess anyway! Another spectacular day on the North Atlantic ocean.....
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:25
nomercy Gold up ->(Gold up -): - Gold up on fund buying, weak dollar
http:///cgi-bin/comments/gold/comments.cgi?COMMAND=ENTERCOMMENT&SHOWORDER=TOPORDER&SHOWTYPE=MEDIUM&DISPGRAPH=NOGRAPH&MONTHFROM=Aug&DAYFROM=06&YEARFROM=97&MONTHTO=Aug&DAYTO=09&YEARTO=97 - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 25.10
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 16:09
panda @?>(@?): - There's an explanation for everything;
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/snapshot.html?source=core/dbc
Small caps, gold, Treasuries..... - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:46
Pizza Man Bull coming!>(Bull coming!): - Today I was playing the S&P and watched the market every minute.
30 yr Bond yield dropped to 6.45% yield and the market could not
get a rally going. Big Labor Pressure Forum on CNN Talk Back Live.
Goerge S. Cole you may be correct about your projections.
Things are getting very interesting! - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:46
BillD Strong Hands?>(Strong Hands?): - Looks to me that with the gold shares up today on very light volume .. strong hands hold the shares ... wait till the buyers show up!!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:32
Ron Jett rjett@mindspring.com>(rjett@mindspring.com): - info on Sunshine Mining it slow but looking better perhaps.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/08/07/ssc_y0023_1.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:30
Leland leland@netarrant>(leland@netarrant): - To any pessimists out there, let me describe a cartoon I once saw. The
picture was of two emaciated, ragged, prisoners spread-eagle and shackled
against a dungeon wall. One has turned to the other. The caption reads,
Now here's my plan. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIRO: I think they are in the same type of business as Jayhawk and Mercury Finance. Giving loans for cars to people who had poor credit. Jayhawk and Mercury both are bankrupt.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:10
nailz 2000 PUTS MAY BE SUPPORT>(2000 PUTS MAY BE SUPPORT): - RON...If I ran a large fund that expected to purchase a large position ( 2,000 is the limit in one month ) of silver future contracts, but I expected that silver had some more downside...I would purchase puts to cover myself....Yes I would want a long period of time on them because I am not sure when the time will be right...If I buy them at a strike a little lower than I expect the metal spot to go, I may also cover my futures premium....You may wish to look at this purchase again and see it as a pretty firm level of support......
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:08
Miro looks like folks ara defaulting on their loans>(looks like folks ara defaulting on their loans): - Financial Institution filing for bankruptcy
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/08/07/wffi_y000_1.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:07
panda @TYX>(@TYX): - Tick chart for the thirty year Long Bond.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:06
DJ Chance for fame!>(Chance for fame!): - George Cole - Would you please stop interfering with my attempts to make you famous? DOW touched 8300, up about 30, and now is down 55, dropping vertically. Remember -- you said 8300. Forget the rest.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:04
Jack YK2>(YK2): -
Just another straw in the wind; and be sure ( if it creates major problems downwind and they -the powers- solve it ) they will put it in their hat and say WE SOLVED IT and you S-U-C-K-E-R-S need us. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 15:03
Micro-t to Miro>(to Miro): - You're right of course. Do you agree that we should transfer out
of electronic accounts? At what point should we start considering
this? I guess now would be a good time to start accumulating
bullion if you can keep it in your own grubbies. It should
probably be certified somehow for authenticity. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:58
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - EARL: Your 11:36 golden humor is appreciated!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:54
panda @back.from.the.beach!>(@back.from.the.beach!): - What gives in the Long Bond? We're up about 7.5 basis point in the last hour. Who said what to whom?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:29
Ron Good News for Precious Metals>(Good News for Precious Metals): - When this information filters down to the man in the street, watch out! Average folks know full well that gold is a sound hedge against hard times, but have not been so foolish as to swamp the switchboard at the Franklin Mint. Goldbugs had better hang on tight when Joe Blow realizes there's a tax break in it for him. The golden rocket is on the launch pad and ready for takeoff next January, unless someone -- or something -- lights the match before then.
------
The Gold Institute: New Tax Law Offers Golden Opportunity to IRA Investors
WASHINGTON, Aug. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- President Clinton this week signed the
Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, creating sweeping changes for Americans who
invest in Individual Retirement Accounts ( IRA ) . The new tax legislation is
expected to swell the number of IRA investors in the coming years.
A particular provision of the Bill, Section 304, broadens the precious
metals options for IRA investors beyond US Mint-issued American Eagle Gold and
Silver Bullion coins and permits investment in other gold bullion coins and
gold bullion bars provided that they are of the fineness equal to or exceeding
99.5 percent gold. The legislation becomes effective on January 1, 1998.
The provision also expands investment opportunities beyond the American
Eagle bullion coins to silver, gold, platinum and palladium bullion coins
issued by other nations including the Canadian, Austrian, and Australian
mints. Bullion coins provide the small investor with an economical way to
make precious metals investments for diversification and portfolio protection
purposes. Bullion coins are manufactured in large quantities and in a
standardized uniform manner, making them fungible, or interchangeable with
each other.
This gives a much needed boost to precious metals market, and it is
significant because Congress is in effect putting precious metals investments
in IRAs on equal footing with bonds and equities, said Michael Clark, vice
president of the Wilmington Trust Company.
More than 4.3 million investors have invested toward individually directed
retirement accounts over the past 15 years. Current IRA assets total
$1.3 trillion. Although IRA investors may contribute to a wide variety of
precious metals mining stocks and mutual funds, they have been unnecessarily
restricted in their choice of physical precious metals investments. Bullion
is fabricated in several forms, among which the two most predominant are bars
and coins.
While coins are convenient for smaller transactions, they do carry a
higher premium than bullion bars, which may make them less attractive for
investors choosing to invest larger amounts in precious metals. To address
that, the new provision also permits investment in bullion bars of silver,
gold, platinum and palladium, which come in a variety of sizes ranging from
one gram up to 1,000 ounces. Bullion products are liquid investments, with a
global 24-hour market.
Gold has been used as a store of value for 5,000 years, and millions of
Americans invest in precious metals today, said Paul Bateman, executive vice
president of The Gold Institute. It is an excellent way to diversify a
portfolio and provide a hedge against inflation and financial uncertainty.
Gold can bring balance to other portfolio assets like stocks, bonds and mutual
funds, reducing the volatility caused by fluctuation in the securities
markets.
The Gold Institute is a non-profit international association of miners,
refiners, bullion suppliers and manufacturers of gold products. Since 1976,
it has been educating the public on the uses, benefits and values of gold.
The Gold Institute's Web site can be accessed on the Internet at:
http://www.goldinstitute.com.
SOURCE The Gold Institute - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:28
nailz TOP OF THE DAY TP YA'>(TOP OF THE DAY TP YA'): - AFTERNOON GANG....Beautiful day here....TED...did you catch that seal
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:21
EB ShellerShocked...?>(ShellerShocked...?): - Mike, I saw a good docum. on the history channel last night on the V.W. They interviewed some gunners but none with your name. What hell on Earth that was...how's your psyche? You seem to be OK. There was some interesting things said about the psyche of the vet...did you ever get the stare?
Peace and Love Bro...
AWAY
EB - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:18
6pak More USofA influence @ Canada, *Free* for the asking. >(More USofA influence @ Canada, *Free* for the asking. ): - McDougall,Caron - Montreal Law Firm, with roots dating back to *1881*.
*Joining* Coudert Bros. - International Legal Network - Headquarters in
New York,- Has 23 offices in 15 countries - More than 350 Lawyers - Work
in *FINANCE* - *INVESTMENT* - *DISPUTE RESOLUTION*
Truly *Multinational*, Crosscultural - It is a true International
*Association*. We are *NOT* a local *Subsidiary*
Commercial Law - Mergers - Acquisitions & Project Financing.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Law-Merger.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 14:10
Miro preparedness strategy>(preparedness strategy): - micro-t: and how is it you'll know by late 1999 that Y2K problem is
under control? Don't expect McD. style billboards announcing as of
today 1,000,000,158,001 lines of code fixed. BTW, late 1999 will be
LATE. Just like with any other strategies you better develop one early
and stick to it. You may get caught just like a short trader trying to
cover his positions. Oh, one more thing, Y2K won't happen on January 1,
2001. It will be happening throughout 1999 with increasing intensity.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 13:59
EB Thanks Tort...>(Thanks Tort...): - For the 'bonus' golf joke...yuk..yuk...
So it's off to the course for me...I now have some ammo.
Away...to sandbag the handicap.
EB
I see everyone is drinking their OJ today...please continue :-$ ) - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 13:48
micro-t to stradmaster, shek>(to stradmaster, shek): - As part of your preparedness strategy, if the problem doesn't
seem to be near resolution by late 1999, I would start converting
all electronic assets into hard assets like physical metals,
cash, savings bonds, etc. Better safe then sorry; you can always
transfer back if the scare was for nothing. I would also have
some food and goods stores for a few months at the ready in case
shopping gets disrupted. In the mean time, let's hit the beach!! - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 13:38
rapaport rapaport@concentric.net>(rapaport@concentric.net): - Additional discussion on y2k problem can be found at-
http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/1997/view0797.htm - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 13:33
Shek y2k>(y2k): - Strad Master,
Thanks for the URL.
A friend who works for medium size bank tells me that his bank sees the Y2K problem as very serious, very disruptive to US economy. Not catastrophic, but very serious. They are preparing for possible runs on banks, lawsuits. He is talking about moving to a rural community, away from large cities. He seems concerned. After doing some research in this area I too will make some preparations. Always should have exit strategy and prepare for all eventuality. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 13:00
Micro-thong off to the beach>(off to the beach): - looking forward to some sun after a grueling workday and
some good news for gold. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:58
Miro I see a good sign>(I see a good sign): - Gentlemen,
I’ve got my good sign in this latest dip. Gold stocks tend to
fall/rise by greater degree than bullion. Not this time. Stocks still
go up by higher percentage following the gold, but in this latest drop,
gold stocks did not decline much ( less than bullion ) . For me this is a
positive turn from short to long approach to investing in gold. Maybe
there is a hope ;- )
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:42
bw Stocks:>(Stocks:): - The nominal value of all stocks in this country increased about 800 billion in the month of july 1997. This more than equals the entire production of goods and services of this country. Hey, the whole country can go on vacation, we dont need to work anymore! Looks like the boomers are right after all. On the other hand keep your job for the coming month when this value decreases by two trillion or so.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:32
Larryn going up>(going up): - This morning London AM gold was set at 318.95 ( -.40 ) . Then PM gold went to 321.00 ( +1.65 ) . Very nice change in a few hours. What caused it?
Meanwhile almost all S. African golds are up. This sends a very bullish indicator to me if it holds.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:31
Fidelity @Update>(@Update): - As of Noon EDT:
FSAGX= $20.10 up .23 ( 1.16% )
FDPMX= $13.50 up .15 ( 1.12% )
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:29
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TORT: Thanks, I kneaded that.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:26
Miro muddling through>(muddling through): - jfkajl;f ( ajkfa ) : we may muddle through, unfortunately for some the mud pit will be too deep
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:21
Tortfeasor Further Bread Comments>(Further Bread Comments): - Donald, I think you've outsliced me on this one. I'll be bake at you later.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:11
jfkajl;f ajkfa>(ajkfa): - Micro, I agree.
In the 1970's I knew there would be a marxist revolution in Mexico; it didn't happen.
That the LDC's would default on there loans; they did but nothing happened.
I expect ( hope ) that the situation will be muddled through
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:10
Ron Arafat Talking Tough>(Arafat Talking Tough): - ``Prepare for battle that Netanyahu is forcing on us, because
what is coming is worse than what has already been,'' Arafat
told Fatah leaders in Gaza on Wednesday.
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19970807/V000153-080797-idx.html
And in another news story I saw today, he was quoted as saying that Israel's tough measures toward the
Palestinians will lead to ``a giant explosion'' that will be impossible to stop.
------
Off to the gym . . . - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:10
David Smartfeasor strikes again>(Smartfeasor strikes again): -
All:
Daughter: Mom, I bought you some lovely flowers, hope you like them !
Mom: Thanks love ...
( pregnant pause )
Dad: So, what you'd get me?
Daughter: Oh, yea, I bought you some candy !
Dad: Great
Daughter: ( pause ) and there's some left too !
TTFN - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:09
Miro Tw - we are neighbors>(Tw - we are neighbors): - Tw: Hi there. I live in NV and work in McLean. As far as DC goes, I go
to downtown only on business. The last time I was there for pleasure
was a few years back taking around my out of town friends. Real shame
what happened to that nice town - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 12:04
Miro Y2K lawsuits>(Y2K lawsuits): - jfkldsaj ( jgajf ) : I am closer to this Y2K thing than I like. Yes,
in one of the hearings on the Hill looking at legal aspect of Y2K, the
cost of litigation was estimated at $1 trillion. I know the people making
that estimate and they are trying to be conservative in their estimates.
Garry North is a good guy trying to raise awareness ( I had a few
discussions with him ) but in order to get attention to Y2K issue he
sometimes paints extreme ( though possible ) scenario
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:48
vronsky THE DINES LETTER - LOOMING CURRENCY CRISIS August 4, 1997>(THE DINES LETTER - LOOMING CURRENCY CRISIS August 4, 1997): - Well-known Analyst cites potpourri of currency comments from world-acclaimed sources. Dines also says those blindly bullish on stocks are like the Italian proverb: “He who knows nothing, doubts nothing.”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:47
jfkldsaj jgajf>(jgajf): - Look at this one
Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums
Summary and Comments
( feel free to mail this page )
Category:
Banking
Date:
1997-08-07 08:28:26
Subject:
Charge Cards Are Starting to Fail
Link:
http://www.freep.com/browsing/tech/qcredit7.htm>http://www.freep.com/browsing/tech/qcredit7.htm
Comment:
This DETROIT FREE PRESS story ( Aug. 7 ) reports on a local
vegetable store that is suing its software supplier. Credit cards with
an expiration date of 2000 are not accepted by the point of sale
( POS ) terminals. Worse; the system sometimes crashes for several
hours.
What is interesting is the response of the president of the software
company. The problem is universal, he says, implying that his firm
should not be singled out.
The judge warned against lawsuits. Lawsuits are not going to be a
solution if in the meantime you're going out of business.
Link:
http://www.freep.com/browsing/tech/qcredit7.htm
Return to Category: Banking
Return to Main Categories Page
Return to Home Page
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:44
Goldbug23 @Liberal Media>(@Liberal Media): - RMW: Your 08:55. When I speak of the Liberal Media I refer to the biased way the majority of the press presents political news. A Roper Center poll commissioned by Freedom Forum, a journalistic foundation of liberal to moderate mien, found 89% of reporters taking the poll voted for Clinton in 1992. Do you think they keep their bias out of their work? I read several papers including the Los Angeles Times. I do not think so!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Leland ( 00:40 ) : Advertising Buy now, pay later ...... Here is one from some years ago in Anchorage. It was an appliance dealer whose slogan was: Chillcoot Charlies, where we cheat the other guy and pass the savings on to you.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:33
GVC @Ron>(@Ron): - Ron: That silver put purchase just goes to show the extreme nature of the negative sentiment that currently prevails in the metals markets. Since I am a contrarion by nature , I choose to look at that put purchase as a postitive signal much like the commitment of traders report for large speculators.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:10
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Mooney: The fund -- if indeed it was the same fund Glenn told us about on Tuesday -- ultimately paid 5½¢/oz. That's $275 per option, for a total of $550,000. Not much for a big fund. But if that position ( with a $3.50 strike ) were meant as insurance for a subsequent purchase of 2,000 Jul 98 contracts ( Jul 98 silver is now at about $4.50/oz ) , then, conceivably -- on a bunch of consecutive limit down days -- the fund could lose $10 million, since we're talking about 10 million ounces of silver, plus one-half million dollars in option premiums. That's why I think this position in silver is an outright bearish one on the part of some big fund. But I'll concede that in the world of big funds, perhaps even $10.5 million isn't considered an especially big risk. Hard to imagine, though.
Similarly, the 9200 ( an extraordinary number in my mind ) $360 gold calls purchased yesterday for Dec and Feb expiry don't seem likely to have been meant for protection either, since that would imply a total exposure of about $30 million. Thus, I think this particular position is bullish for gold, and it's very encouraging to me to see that there is at least one big spec/hedger who sees a light at the end of the tunnel for gold.
Of course, I'm real new to this stuff, and might be overlooking some kind of fancy straddle or something. But I just don't see it in the numbers.
Mooney, I very much appreciate your input on this and any issue, and recognize your well-deserved standing here on Kitco. I'm DEFINITELY NOT criticizing anyone, but am just tryin' to understand things, and any and all comments by you, or anyone else, continue to be welcome and much desired. Thanks. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:09
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TORT: You certainly have a lot of crust to say that. I hope when you wrote the 10:35 you had a rye smile. Someday, with more practice, your writing style is sure to flour. Enough of this silliness, back to loafing.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 11:04
Donald @Home>(@Home): - D.A.: If they can make their stock market any price they want why can't they make the Yuan any price they want?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:57
VRONSKY FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS >(FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS ): - CNBC analyst celebrity predicts a sharp decline in stocks within next 60 days - although he is bullish longer-term. See INGER LETTER FORECAST:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:55
vronsky oooops>(oooops): - SILVER UP 4 CENTS
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:53
vronsky INTRA-DAY CHARTS>(INTRA-DAY CHARTS): - GOLD UP 3.30, PLATINUM UP 5.50, SILVER UP cents & Palladium down 3.50:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:39
D.A. where.will.they.be.investing?>(where.will.they.be.investing?): - All:
A clipping from today's FT.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Professor Li Jingwen, director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics at Cass, stressed in an interview that findings were preliminary and further refinement of figures was required.
But in a controversial observation for a Chinese economist, Prof Li said
China's yuan was significantly undervalued using the PPP measurement. He
believes the actual value of the yuan is four to the dollar compared with the present official rate of 8.3 He predicts a significant appreciation of the yuan against the dollar over the next several decades.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If this kind of thinking becomes part of the official line, perhaps their recycled trade dollars will be heading into investment vehicles other than U.S. Treasuries. I leave it to the readers imagination where this might be. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:35
Tortfeasor Breadmaker>(Breadmaker): - Breadmaker is still in transit to the Home Shopping Networks. It takes two weeks to process and they won't yet admit they have it back. They may want more dough before I can make more bread. The yeast they cuold do is admit they have it, but they are afraid that might get a rise out of me. And speaking of a rise it appears that gold is rising nicely this morning.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:26
D.A. an.answer>(an.answer): -
It appears that the new breed brand of bovine has a distinctly metallic flavor. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:05
D.A. uh.oh>(uh.oh): -
DeFOREST, Wis. ( August 6, 1997 11:04 p.m. EDT ) -- A biotechnology company announced Wednesday that it had cloned a bull using a new highly advanced technique, but declined to reveal how the method differs from existing technologies..............
The big question remains, was this a paper bull, or a gold bull? - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 10:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: A sandpaper crash does the worst damage, look at the 1966 top on the Dow/Gold Ratio chart as it related to gold. No one wants to believe it's over and by the time they figure it out it's too late. From there it gets steep.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:55
George Cole UPS>(UPS): - How the laboring masses see it. Is this the beginning of the workers' rebellion predicted by Steve Roach? Interesting how all our free-market oriented businesspeople are clamoring for government intervention against the strikers. Hypocrisy writ large.
August 7, 1997
IN AMERICA / By BOB HERBERT
A Workers' Rebellion
he walkout by 185,000 drivers, loaders and sorters of the United Parcel Service is best
seen as the angry, fist-waving response of the frustrated American worker, a revolt
against the ruthless treatment of workers by so many powerful corporations.
The Times's Dirk Johnson quoted a U.P.S. employee, Laura Pisciotti, on the picket line in
Willow Springs, Ill.: These companies all have the formula. They don't take you on full time.
They don't pay benefits. Then their profits go through the roof.
U.P.S. has mastered the formula. It dominates the package delivery industry, earning $1 billion
in profits last year. But for hourly employees, the men and women whose muscle and sweat and
brains are needed to get the packages from one place to another, United Parcel is a grim and
often dangerous place to work.
U.P.S. treats its employees like beasts of burden. Workers have to handle packages that weigh
as much as 150 pounds while hurrying to meet the industry's relentless deadlines. Sorters
sometimes handle 1,600 packages per hour. Injuries, many of them serious, come in waves. The
company has seemed unconcerned.
Since 1990, according to the Federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration, U.P.S. has
paid more than $4.4 million in penalties and settlement agreements for health and safety
complaints. OSHA officials documented more than 1,300 violations during that period, said
Bonnie Friedman, a spokeswoman.
Kate Bronfenbrenner, director of labor education research at Cornell University's School of
Industrial and Labor Relations, said: U.P.S. has one of the worst health and safety records.
The company has an injury rate that is two and a half times the industry standard.
The reward for workers who put up with such conditions is the continuing contempt of top
management. For the most part, U.P.S. doesn't even bother to offer full-time employment.
Part-timers account for nearly 60 percent of the company's work force, and more than 80
percent of all the new hires over the past four years.
The pay for part-timers is lousy, less than half the hourly wage of full-time workers. And the
jobs tend not to last long. U.P.S. hired 180,000 part-timers in 1996, and only 40,000 are still
with the company. The shorter the stay, the less likely the worker will qualify for benefits.
The situation at U.P.S. represents the dark side of job creation, Ms. Bronfenbrenner said.
Jobs where you work fewer than 20 hours a week, that have completely irregular hours and
that disappear after three months -- are those the kinds of jobs we mean when we talk about job
creation?
That's the reality for many U.P.S. workers, which would be bad enough. But the company has
managed to have it both ways. It also assigns thousands of part-time workers to full-time duty
while refusing to give them full-time pay. More than 10,000 part-timers are working 35 or
more hours a week, and they continue to be paid as part-timers. In the corporate suites, that is
called smart management. In other places, it is called ripping people off.
U.P.S. workers, represented by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, finally decided
they had put up with enough of management's contempt. On Monday they walked out.
At the very least the strike has thrown a brighter spotlight on the increasingly inequitable way
that workers across the country have been treated over the past 25 years. The top corporations
have thrived and the managerial elite has treated itself to breathtaking riches while enormous
numbers of ordinary workers have seen their wages stagnate or decline, their health insurance
and pension benefits vanish, their full-time jobs decay into temporary or part-time employment.
The old ideal of job security has given way to permanent employment anxiety.
Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, noted that all
of this has occurred even as productivity has been increasing.
The economic pie has been growing at 1 percent a year for 25 years, he said, which means
that there is more compensation to go around. But that compensation has been distributed
unequally.
The U.P.S. strike is a demand for a somewhat fairer distribution.
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Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:51
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - 2 @Aug. 6 22:25 - Thank you so much for taking the time to post this info. So we now have gold at $130 in 1978 dollars. The lowest point since shortly after it came off its decades-long 'fix', which eventually meant ( by the late 60's - early 70's ) that it was extremely undervalued. This data should prove to any doubting thomas that the lows are with us and we are now at bargain basement prices.
Ron@ Aug 6 22:37 - 2,000 * $.05 = $100.00 - My guess is that its just a lottery ticket.
Ted @ ? - Thought you once said you didn't drink all that much? - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:41
Miz Japanese Life Insurance>(Japanese Life Insurance): - Donald: My information source is your posting. I do not read any Japanese newspaper but I browse Yahoo Quotes of Japanese stock market. It still has technical problems.
In 1994, I found the column of a big 7 life insurance company was blank in the ranking list. A Japanese told me that this company could not bankrupt because the Ministry of Treasure supported it. It was similar to CitiCorp in the US. It looks very political that the mid-size firm had bankrupted first in 1997. I have a lot of questions, but I have to quit.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:40
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport): - To All: If the Y2K problem is catastrophic for the banking system and Wall St. It may not be a bad idea to have a considerable amount of your
assets in gold bullion or coins. A must read for all is Gary North's Y2K
links and forums at http://www.garynorth.com/
I am reading it with a grain of salt, Hopefully,technology will reign supreme and we will avoid this fiasco. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:34
vronsky FOR PRECIOUS METALS COLLECTORS>(FOR PRECIOUS METALS COLLECTORS): - Dr. Randal Burns provides an overview of building a precious metals collection of various forms of bullion. He gives useful ‘tips’ & caveats for serious collector. Interesting read:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/burns806.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:17
George Cole stock market>(stock market): - Donald: I make no claim to be able to call the exact day of the top. I suspect it will look something like Dow +200 points by noon, but minus 100 points by the close. Still think we will see it this month, but my best judgement now is that Dow will not peak until we get around 8500.
Another question is how fast do we go down once the top is in. Rerun of 1987 crash or a lengthy, grinding bear market such as we gold investors have endured these past 18 months? Frankly I am agnostic on this point. But whatever the speed of the falloff, there is little doubt we are going down BIG once the bear begins. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 09:10
nomercy Gold- more physical buying ahead (1998)?>(Gold- more physical buying ahead (1998)?): - The Gold Institute: New Tax Law Offers Golden Opportunity to IRA
Investors
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/97/08/06/wilm_y000_1.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: Just watched CNBC for a few minutes. Europe on the way to the moon, everyone is so incredibly, wildly bullish on stocks and bonds, today has got to be THE top. If you get your 8300 today and it tanks tomorrow you will deservedly get your name in the history books.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:58
Mitchell badger@lcc.net>(badger@lcc.net): - Anyone have a thought on Royal Gold, ( nasdq:rgld ) , and Kazakstan Gold fields; ( BB,Toranto:kgfc ) ,.Both these have been recomended by some fairly well known writers and rgld particularly is a domestic producer with a cheap per ounce cost.Anyone know some convieniently left out pitfalls here?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:55
RMW (Canada)>((Canada)): - Goldbug23: Is Liberal Media just a euphemism for people who want to investigate and expose the worst in politicians? I saw a documentary on PBS's POV program on Monday night that observed the Senatorial race in Virginia when Robb won over Ollie North. The camera caught much that was contradictory and hypocritical on both sides, but the campaigners for the Republican North were, in my opinion, exceedingly dishonest as their public and private personas were in stark contrast. They were also the ones who repeatedly blamed everything on the Liberal media. In general, they resembled a pack of nerdy used car salesmen with an overcooked sense of power.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:52
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - JOBERG gold index up 0.5%. Bullion flat.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:36
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - Something that should be remembered when dealing with your favorite coin
shop, is their overhead due to cost of shipping. Example, I recently
ordered Silver Eagles. Price quoted was $.50/each over spot. Around
$.35 was shipping cost. This didn't leave much for covering rest of
overheads. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:35
Ted @NY Rangers>(@NY Rangers): - Rangers offer Joe Sakic 21 million for three years...YES!....but is there any inflation? BBL dudes...
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:34
Ted @NY Rangers>(@NY Rangers): - Rangers offer Joe Sakic 21 million for three years...YES!....but is there any inflation? BBL dudes...
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:30
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Comex opening: Gold down .10; silver down .3 of a cent; PL down 4.0; and PA down 9.10....More profit takin on the white stuff...
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:11
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Donald: yeah,I caught that post...the greater fool theory....
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:09
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AU99,9: What is the Gary North story? I missed it.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:08
Ted @Goldbug23>(@Goldbug23): - Hi Goldbug23....Dickie Gephardt + Teddy ( fat boy ) Kennedy are two of the worst politicians in the USA...and that's sayin a mouthful!...European stox soarin and S+P futures are up 1.10....What else is new?...President Gephardt..hahahaha....would make Bubba look like a genius!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: Re Hong Kong new high. Did you see my post yesterday from Shanghai? The Vice Premier says investors should not worry, the government will support the markets. Hong Kong too? P.T. Barnum was right.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:05
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot): - BOB 2: Your 04:45 I believe has the answer as to who is controlling the gold price these days. I have to wonder if what they are doing is based on law? Some day they will lose control or make big enough mistakes and then the reactions will be magnified.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 08:02
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BEAR POSTER: Thank you for that post. The psychology is there for a rally and it fits my Dow/Gold theory nicely but it certainly is not showing up in the price yet. Dow/Gold Ratio was 25.61 last night. Ugh.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:53
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot): - TED: You are sure right about Gephart. If he becomes President many of here will think Clinton was a god by comparison. And it could happen with the liberal media pushing him.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:52
Au99.9 Gloomsville>(Gloomsville): - Things can't get much gloomier than the Gary North story, except perhaps the gold price. I was planning to a miserable day anyway!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TW: Yes, I used to work on the Hill. Wash is only a great town in the daytime. You can't go out at night. Can you find a door or window in DC that does not have heavy duty iron bars? In DC the bad guys are on the outside and the good guys stay in their prisons for safety. One weekend before I retired there were 23 murders. Five were little kids killed in crossfire between two gangs at a swimming pool. I was glad to get out alive. Two of my co-workers were murdered two blocks from my nice neighborhood. Sorry to unload on you.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:41
Ted @London>(@London): - Here's London ( yawn ) Gold....
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/07/z0000_5.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:41
Bear poster USA>(USA): - HK gold imports UP 300+% http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/07/z0009_1.html
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:35
Ted @Tort>(@Tort): - Mornin Mr.Tort!!...Here's Hong ( yawn ) Kong Gold...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/07/z0000_4.html
Ron Carey is a sleeze!....Tort: any word on bread machine? - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:31
Tortfeasor Bonus Joke>(Bonus Joke): - One more quick one for you golfers before I am off to the salt mines.
One day this avid golfer returns from a game looking very down and
dejected. He wife says, What's wrong, dear, you look awful?
It was terrible! Bob had a heart attack on the tenth green today and
died on the spot.
How terrible for you. No wonder you feel the way you do, it must have
been just awful!
It sure was, he continued, the whole rest of the day it was hit a
shot, drag Bob, hit a shot, drag Bob... - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:24
Tortfeasor Joke of the Morning>(Joke of the Morning): - Morning Ted, fellow sufferers, looks like the inflation gods are being held at bay by the hounds of plenty. I have to go move a bunch of food storage boxes around in the garage this morning for Mrs. Tort so I'm going to be seing those commodities up close and personal. Maybe we have a box full of gold. If so would it be worth keeping? I think I'll keep it if its there. Here's the story for the morning.
Snow White received a camera as a gift. She happily took
pictures of the Dwarfs and their surroundings. When she
finished her first batch she took the film to be developed. After a
week or so she went to get the finished photos. The clerk said
the photos were not back from the processor. Needless to
say, she was disappointed and started to cry. The clerk, trying
to console her, said,
Don't worry, someday your prints will come. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:23
Tw @home>(@home): - Donald did you work on the hill? My wife works for the VA. Her office is near Capitol Hill. I work in boring McLean Va/Tysons Corner. Wash is a great town/ a few weeks ago some buddies of mine and I met downtown for a happy hour and guess who is sitting at one of the tables off to the side but AG himself. A few years ago when I worked out at Georgetown Healy Field House/ who is sitting in the in the sauna when I walk in / none other than Ted and Joe Kennedy
Any comments on the Commitment of Traders.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:23
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - I live 900 feet from Eddie MacCleod and that gets me a rum drinkin partner....
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:20
Ted @ocean>(@ocean): - Spectacular day!...EBN GOld has gone from up .95 to up .20 in ONE hour..
um....Will have to put that and the other tea leaves into the Cuisinart and see what I come up with...Mornin Mike S.... - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:19
BobA atwork>(atwork): - Looks like another delivery of both plat. and pall. So what happened to the shortages? I used to live 2 blocks from Bill Weld, that and $1.25 gets me a cup of coffee
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:16
Ted @TW>(@TW): - TW ( 7:02 ) Re-my thoughts...Dick Gephardt is a total FOOL!...with NO conception of how business even operates...A DANGEROUS politician!...Since the markets seem to be attracted to round numbers I thought gold would go down and test 300 but now I'm not so sure after watching the XAU action of the last few weeks...That said...we'll probably hit 300 in 2 weeks!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:13
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TW: Used to live at 630A St. NE on the Hill. I don't know what you think of his politics but Dick Gephart is a very nice man.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:09
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Hang Seng hit another new high....Bank of England just raised interest rates by 25 basis points....Dax soarin ( up 81 ) .....U.S.Dollar flat....
Large seal in front of house.... - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:03
Mike Sheller oh what a beautiful morning>(oh what a beautiful morning): - RUMI: your 2:43 wise and simple...I have made a Haiku out of it...
Hyperbolic curve
overshadows Goldbugs gloom
unsustainable
2- I say put an end to those recursively self-defining exchange rates! Seriously - I myself noticed an incredible change in American Society ( at least what I was exposed to ) after returning from being in the Army & S.E. Asia from '65-67. There was indeed a paradigm shift relative to relative morality and standards. I am not making a value judgement, here, but corroborating your observation. A thoughtful post. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:02
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIZ: I would be very interested in hearing your opinion on why only the Financial Times in London has carried the story about the problems of Nissan Mutual Assurance. Have you seen any story in Japanese language newspapers?
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 07:02
Tw @home>(@home): - Sunny and 70 degrees ie another beautiful day in the Northern Virginia burbs of Wash. DC. I live about 17 miles west southwest of the white house and 16 miles from the Fed. Dick Gephardt and family live over on the next block.
Any thoughts on when gold will test 300? GSC? Anybody?
The Commitment of Traders report is outlandishly bullish on Silver and Gold. Looks like the commercials are wrong and little specs are right. The same situation with the S&P and Bonds/ Commercials are short and little specs are long. THOUGHTS or Comments appreciated.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 06:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Brazil registers lowest inflation rate since 1951.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 06:49
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hi Ted: Usually up by 4 AM. Do all my best thinking when the house is quiet. Sunny and 60F. Going to be a nice one for sure.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 06:21
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald! You sure got up EARLY....London Gold down .50 and silver @ unch...
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 06:18
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good mornin Kitcoites...and what a beautiful one it is! Clear+cool with projected high of 72...EBN Gold up .95 and Silver down 1 centavo...Maybe the XAU is telling us the bottom is in for Gold and has been in since the announcement of CB sellin by Australia...
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 06:13
Tw @home>(@home): - Fact is that the baby boomer/401k money is not enough to keep the mkt going! W/O the massive foreign buying of the bonds/equities and dollar this thing would be history. Their massive buying to propel the mkt ensures a crash even with BB and 401k. After the crash the 401k money and BB money will stop as stks look like a poor investment next to the money mkt!!!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 05:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Malaysian Prime Minister clarifies currency speculation action.
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/07ypswap1.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 05:46
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Philippine Central Bank cust overnight rate from 20% to 18%
( This may imply weakness in the banking system )
http://www.philstar.com/site/Preview/assets/cgi_bin/nph-general.cgi?j07_aug7&BUS1 - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 05:41
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ and PGM Fans
Have some cool supply DATA and assumptions
FOR plats
RSA 1993-1997 assume about 3.3 mill oz
russia 1993 .7mill,'94 1.0 mill, '95 1.28 mill, '96
1.2 mill, '97 .6 mill
assume normal russian production is .6 mill and
supply bulge 94-96 was stock pile rundowm - assume
stock pile now close to gone.
For Palladium
RSA assume 1.4 in 1993 rising to 1.7 in 1997
Russia 2.4 in 1993,3.3 in 1994, 4.2 in 1995, 4.6
in 1996.
Assume russian palladium production at 2.2 mill oz.
Bulge over 1994/1996 was from stockpile - pile is
bigger than plats pile as russians produce 4 times
as much palladium. Would guess they have 2 mill oz left ( )
or enough to fill in for 3 years _ however looks
they will try to maximize price having given it
away for peanuts for 3 years. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 05:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Downsizing begins in Pakistan. Bank population faces 30% reduction.
Airline says 15% of expenses go to corrupt officials. Hurt by Asian devaluations. ( Lots of deflation news )
http://www.brecorder.com/ - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 05:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - New vehicle orders plummet in Thailand. Manufacturers cancel expansion plans and announce shutdowns.
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/asiaset.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 05:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japanese stocks drop below May 1st level on bad debt news.
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/ - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 04:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japan to host 11 nation Thai rescue meeting on August 11th.
( That this meeting is being held on 4 days notice seems significant )
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Even.html#gen132 - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 04:45
bob2 north>(north): - A interesting essay on central bank using derivatives and cash instruments.
http://what.inet.jpmorgan.com/CorpInfo/Perspectives/Central_Banking/Introduction.html - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 04:22
The Seer Crisis>(Crisis): -
Create crisis, then solve it, but make hostage those in crisis and eventually you will control the world. That is until the dumb asses wake up and do something about it.
The Seer
For Kommisar KGB - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 04:18
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ
the 2 mill oz number that was stuck in my head was
the Japanese demand figure which was about 75 %
jewellery. My 1996 demand figure is 885000 Europe,
2030,000 Japan, 1035,000 N.A., 640000 rest of western
world.
The expensive forecasting guy's screwup was presumably
gross overestimation of Russian supply. That seemed to be the
trend among forecasters last year ( who dreamed of cold
Siberian Platinum as they dozed in their warm baths and planned
their days ) . They assumed the stockpile was endless and also
confused production with withdrawal from inventory - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 03:52
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ - First _ I have obtained s/d balances for
Palladium and rhodium from 1987 through 1995. I have
a Demand breadown for platinum over the same period
by application and area ( but no supply breakdown
sadly ) - I would provide it but I dont know how
to make table with columns in Kitco-speak
- second- re platinum costs - ARGHHHHH-
try this - I would assume costs in Rand/ton ARE
after subtracting by-product revenue for nickel
rhodium and palladium - in fact I read the report and it
says total costs net of other metal revenue - they also
give a cost of platinum - refined oz of 1058R/oz which
would equal - $235 /oz
Similar numbers for leplat are 1596R/oz and 858 for
pp-rust - ie 354$/oz and 191$/oz.
These are anglos rand cost figures- I divided by
4.5 as a blind guess at an exchange rate. I presume
they were based on total cost -less byproduct revenue
divided by platinum produced.
For George Cole - Ray does not speaked with forked
tongue. My number of 50% is radical on the LOW side.
Mines like Western deep would simply shift grade
and keep a million ounces on stream. Some others would
do likewise. I would guess that as much as 75 % would
stay on at 300$. A small rand devaluation would keep
even more on. I think the problem area is Australia.
Also I think that many N.A. mines are in dreamland with
their cost figures which are understated.
A slide to 300 would be interesting. We can test
those N.A. cost figures.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 02:43
rumi @ rumour-ville>(@ rumour-ville): - I hear that the hyperbolic curve being mapped out by the S&P & DJIA, are not sustainable much longer. Rumours have it that the ticket to this time, is hidden in the gold-bug's gloom, and surplus of cynicism.
Here, perhaps, is wisdom. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 02:19
GVC @kitco>(@kitco): - DJ: your quote..the more I learn the less I know; I nominate that for quote of the month. If that doesn't apply to these metals markets, then I 'don't know' what does! :- )
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 01:48
Strad Master Y2K Here we come!>(Y2K Here we come!): - SHEK: Do you know that there is an entire web site devoted to the Y2K problem with lots of horrific scenarios to consider? I find it all fascinating and quite scary but I don't have the expertise to evaluate how correct the predictions are or just how catastrophic it all could become. Here's the URL in case anyone who is and expert is interested in perusing it and giving a definitive report. http://www.garynorth.com/ I, for one, would be most grateful for a concrete and unbiased evaluation.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 01:26
Lan Man @Closing Bell>(@Closing Bell): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly lower
Wednesday, with the exception of silver, but volumes were
significantly lower than Tuesday.
Tomorrow could be an interesting day in gold, and I would think
there is still some serious downside risk as basically there's just
been one major player supporting the market, Swiss Bank New York
precious metals dealer, Greg Drury, said. Goldman Sach's has been
among the big buyers in recent weeks, even after the Newmont Mining
1.1 million ounce hedge buy-back, handled by the investment bank,
was completed, many traders said.
In the past week there been several million ounces bought back
without much upside response in the gold price, which sounds a
bearish note, he said. About 50 percent of world gold production
is probably uneconomic at current prices, and the longer gold stays
down at these levels, the sooner some miners are going to have to
do some more hedging.
About 50 percent of Australian reserves are currently hedged, but
only about 12 percent of North American reserves and 10 percent of
South African reserves are hedged, so either one major producing
country is very overhedged or two countries are underhedged.
Meanwhile, NYMEX platinum and palladium futures ended sharply lower
Wednesday, in line with a sharp fall in TOCOM ( Tokyo Commodity
Exchange ) platinum group metal ( PGM ) futures and a sharp fall in
bullion market PGM prices.
NYMEX September palladium ended down $12.00 an ounce at $215.60,
after seeing a new contract high at $227.60 Tuesday. But after a
sharp rally in PGMs since mid-July, which took spot palladium
prices back up to new 17 year highs, a correction was not really a
surprise, traders said.
In the past week NYMEX and TOCOM PGM futures have seen several days
of limit-up moves, driven by fund and broker shortcovering, against
a background of an acute shortage of metal in the physical market.
But a rise in TOCOM deposit margins overnight, combined with an
expanded daily limit, forced some profit taking, traders said.
Right now there's more stop orders on the downside than the
upside, and it may take more fundamental news about supply problems
in Russia to drive prices back up, RJ Futures president and NYMEX
floor trader, Ralph D'Esposito, said. Russia resumed exports of
PGMs last month, after a six month suspension, but so far the
quantities being exported were not allowing inventories to rebuild,
analysts said.
For the full text story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4314468-354
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 318.70 320.00 318.00 318.20 _2.20 414.50 314.60
Oct97 320.50 322.00 319.70 320.40 _2.10 426.50 316.80
Dec97 323.00 324.20 322.10 322.50 _2.10 456.50 318.50
Feb98 325.50 326.30 324.00 324.60 _2.20 424.00 322.50
Apr98 328.00 328.00 328.00 326.60 _2.20 408.40 325.00
Jun98 329.50 329.50 329.50 328.90 _2.20 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 48250
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 432.00 436.00 432.00 433.30 +1.80 576.00 418.00
Dec97 438.00 442.50 438.00 439.60 +1.80 701.90 424.00
Mar98 446.00 448.50 446.00 445.80 +1.80 573.00 432.00
Dec98 464.50 464.50 464.50 464.20 +1.80 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 25809
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 216.50 220.00 215.60 215.60 _12.00 227.60 128.75
Dec97 208.50 209.00 207.60 207.60 _12.00 219.60 120.25
Est. Sales 1339
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 431.50 439.50 427.00 431.00 _18.60 463.70 355.50
Jan98 421.50 429.00 419.00 421.50 _18.10 454.00 360.00
Est. Sales 3710
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 01:25
Niner Equity Bulls Outlandishly Bullish>(Equity Bulls Outlandishly Bullish): - I talked to a client today who owns a financial planning company ( My own company addresses his computer needs ) . I decided to ask him what he thinks of gold's prospects in the near term.
Precious metals are gone, dead, no impact in the 'new' marketplace he said. This bull equity market will continue for quite a while, in fact, I have my clients virtually 100% in mutual funds at the moment. I am paraphrasing from memory, but trying not to alter the content. A new client with a $500K investment netted $42K in his first week with us, boy this is fun!
I reminded him of the index funds and irrational exhuberance of the 20's, but he steadfastly maintained that Things are different now. When I pointed out that those statements were made back then as well, he pointed out that margin requirements were different then. It can't happen now. Additionally, companies like Walmart are placing 6% ( or whatever ) of employee pay into mutual funds, and adding their own contribution of 25-50 cents on the dollar weekly . . . The money continues and will continue to flow into the equities . . .
Further, he did not feel that stocks were overvalued - - The technical sector represented by the likes of MSFT were going to continue to outperform all expectations.
Wow - - If many people feel this way, the reversals can't be too far away . . . Gold is obliged to take a beating while this exhuberance continues, but the turning point must be getting closer! Those of us that make money at this game are necessarily contrarians, that is, we're buying while the masses are selling, and vice-versa. I am a contrarian, and find this person's views to be a harbinger of things to come. Gold is not dead, only sleeping for a decade or two. The time to act appears to be close at hand.
Watching for gold to test $300 soon . . .
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 01:23
Lan Man @Disaster>(@Disaster): - Ron ( in sack-o-tomatoes ) : re I've got a headache Duangkaew Chanruang ( Thailand civil servant ) - NOW she goes out to buy the stuff, after the word is already out. Well at least she has some now. With the help of their new protector, the IMF, the VAT taxes will *only* go up by 43%. Better stock up while you can.
Hopefully for her, China will not play the game and devalue the renminbi to bring its export prices in line. Say like 20% or even more…InDeflation, depending upon which side of the fence your on. ( Thank you Senator Blutarsky )
With the US$ flying high, it is looking more and more like the Global Villagers are all relying on the USA to purchase all those goods that they *need* to export. Heaven help all if we all max out our money cards, ahhhh, I mean our credit cards.
It just shows to go you, one can never be too prepared for the inescapable accidentadversitycalamitycatastrophecollapsedebacledisasteremergencytragedy that may strike.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 00:40
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - There is this local appliance showroom with a bright window panel blazoned in red neon: ENJOY NOW - PAY LATER. My thinking, SUFFER NOW -
ENJOY LATER. For us goldbugs, our day is coming!
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 00:31
DJ Tokyo out of love with whites?>(Tokyo out of love with whites?): - Seems no one mentioned that spot prices for PL and PA both dropped straight down $12 in the first hour in Tokyo. Haven't recovered. Happened last night at the same time as well. I thought these were the folks that had a shortage? The more I learn the less I know.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 00:26
2 to vronsky>(to vronsky): - let me think on that one please. Very tempting and thanks for the offer.
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 00:25
2 The year - 1966>(The year - 1966): - From 1960 thru 1965, inflation never reached exceeded 1.7%. Since then ( for 31 years in a row ) , it has never been that low. What happened? Isn't it curious that everything fell apart in the late 1960s? Morality and the economy, in one fell swoop. It's as if moral relativism ( no absolute standards ) and economic relativism ( no standard ) walked in the door together. Have we forgotten how stable life can be?
Isn't it time to bring back the standards?
If a gold dollar is 1/35 of an ounce of gold ( which it was for so many many years ) , then a paper dollar has been worth this much each year since 1971: .86 / .60 / .36 / .22 / .22 / .28 / .24 / .18 / .11 / .06 / .08 / .09 / .08 / .10 / .11 / .10 / .08 / .08 / .09 / .09 / .10 / .10 / .10 / .09 / .09 / .09 / .11
In other words, it used to be worth a dollar. Since then, it's stayed at around a dime. A sudden decimation of the dollar in 9 years. And nobody noticed! Now, it has not changed significantly for 18 years. Is that eerie stability just a coincidence?
The dollar _appears_ to have usurped the role of gold as the store of value ( but has it really? ) . I believe that in the coming years, this will be reversed: Gold will be resurrected as the store of value, and the inherent flimsiness of the paper dollar will be revealed. Gold, the self-authenticating substance.
In developing countries ( not as much now as years ago ) , artificial government-imposed exchange rates created a black market in dollars - American money could buy more than local scrip could. Analogously, now, the world government - the banks and administrations of the earth acting in concert ( no paranoia here - this is just the way the system works, G7, etc., etc. ) has in effect decreed the exchange rates as recursively self-defining. The Eurodollar is a natural extension of this approach. Will they be able to kill gold? The evidence is that they are trying. - Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 00:09
nailz NOT GENERALLY A PESSIMIST......>(NOT GENERALLY A PESSIMIST......): - ALL.... Talk about deflation....What would happen right now if all these high flying stock markets took a 15% hit at the same time...What with the crisis in the Pacific Rim countries...HUM.......HUM.....What if the dollar tanked along with the bonds at the same time..?A scary thought Or maybe a nightmare
- Date: Thu Aug 07 1997 00:05
Miz Wrestling and Sumou>(Wrestling and Sumou): - The bottom line of Japanese economic failures is a political failure. The Japanese do not know how to use the implanted Democracy and democratic economic system.
The Americans believe that the Japanese play wrestling because they guided the Japanese to construct the wrestling rink. However, the Japanese play 'Sumou,' the traditional Japanese wrestling, setting up 'Dohyo' on the wrestling rink. The rules of the two games are different. The Americans maximizes individual utility and the Japanese, collective utility. In essence, they are group people.
In the Japanese political system, on the one hand, the underground Yakuza ( Mafia ) has become the major fund-raising apparatus to operate 'Democracy.' The Liberal-Democrat Party has taken advantage of this fund raising channel, and it is the faction of Mr. Hashimoto that has controlled this fund-raising function in the Party. ( Foreign Affairs Ichiro Ozawa, Sept/Oct 1995 )
In the Japanese economic system, on the other hand, the equity market was designed to collect the campaign money. One third of equity market fund comes from the illegal activities, like drugs, gambles, prostitution, etc. The Yakuza has more power than institutional investors in the equity market. They, as agents of politicians, collect campaign money by short-swing and harassing corporate using their stockholders' right. As a result, the equity finance grew very slowly in Japan, and the investment in equity market has been regarded as a kind of gambling. ( Japanese Stock Market written by a former researcher of Nomura Research Center. )
In stead, the Japanese have reorganized and developed 'Keiretsu,' the Japanese conglomerates around banks which provide 'healthy' debt finance and often interfere corporate management. The Americans are familiar with the corporate Leviathan but not the Keiretsu Leviathan. Their high P/E ratio is the confidence in their Leviathan. Their confidence in their government is even more. Peter Lynch could not believe the IPO price of NT&T, but the high price was their confidence in this privatized corporate.
Up to here, things are clear to me. I am tired and I will go to bed. Good night.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 23:49
vronsky graphing the data>(graphing the data): - 2: I will graph the data if you provide 400-500 words to tell the story. OK?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 23:48
tanami @perlexed>(@perlexed): - Does anyone know the tick value for the XAU futures? info
a bit hard to get from australia, thought the broker can trade
them. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 23:45
Ted @zzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzz): - EBN Gold up .20.....Good night ALL.....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 23:35
2 Gold in constant$ - back to 1971>(Gold in constant$ - back to 1971): -
( 1 ) Year
( 2 ) CPI ( 1982-1984=100 )
( 3 ) Au/oz in 1978$
( 4 ) AU/oz as % of 1978 price ( constant dollars )
( 1 ) ....... ( 2 ) ....... ( 3 ) ........ ( 4 )
___________________________
1971.......40.5.......65.68.......33.99
1972 ......41.8.......90.72.......46.95
1973 ......44.4......142.91.......73.95
1974 ......49.3......210.62......108.99
1975 ......53.8......195.14......100.98
1976 ......56.9......143.05.......74.03
1977 ......60.6......158.92.......82.24
1978.......65.2......193.24......100.00
1979.......72.6......275.42......142.53
1980.......82.4......484.86......250.91
1981.......90.9......329.78......170.66
1982.......96.5......253.89......131.39
1983.......99.6......277.63......143.67
1984......103.9......226.13......117.02
1985......107.6......192.23.......99.48
1986......109.6......218.89......113.27
1987......113.6......256.00......132.48
1988......118.3......240.70......124.56
1989......124.0......200.22......103.61
1990......130.7......191.37.......99.03
1991......136.2......173.41.......89.74
1992......140.3......159.83.......82.71
1993......144.5......162.35.......84.01
1994......148.2......168.99.......87.45
1995......152.4......164.30.......85.02
1996......156.9......161.15.......83.39
1997......160.4......129.75.......67.14
Other:
Average of the year-average prices of gold since 1971, in Aug 1997 dollars: $582
I think a graph of the above data ( i.e., column 3 or column 4 ) would be illuminating, if anyone has the inclination.
Of course, this is all based on the CPI, which is a controversial number.
Ideally, of course, the price of gold, once accepted as the international standard backing for currency, and stabilized naturally over time, would itself serve as the natural and authoritative consumer price index coefficient. Then, all those government employees wouldn't have to go out shopping every month to check the latest prices.
And every purchase would be, in effect, bought with gold. Wouldn't that be a wonderful world?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 23:16
Shek no more, i promise>(no more, i promise): - Year 2000 Hits The Bottom Line
By Bruce Caldwell
Year 2000 expenditures are reaching the bottom line. Several companies say they will cut corporate earnings to account for the cost of the millennium fix as they find they can't fund their entire year 2000 projects from existing IS budgets. Two research reports indicate thatmany more companies will have to go the same route.
In its annual report, Equifax Inc., a $1.9 billion financial services company in Atlanta, deducted 1 cent per share from earnings to account for its 1996 year 2000 spending- and stated that additional year 2000 spending in 1997 and 1998 would trim four to five cents per share. Year 2000 costs ate up $1 million in the first quarter this year alone.
Southern New England Telecommunication Corp. expects to spend $15
million to $20 million this year on its year 2000 fix, which means cutting its earnings for the year from $3.20 to as low as $2.90, estimates Scott Wright, a telecom analyst at Argus Research Corp. in New York. That's not chicken feed, says Wright.
Because SNET's year 2000 spending exceeds its IS budget, the expenditures
will impact earnings, acknowledges Richard LeFave, CIO at the New
Haven, Conn., telecom company. But our intent was to address year 2000
[issues] up front, he notes. Companies are saying they don't want Wall
Street taking them apart in 1998 because they didn't tackle this sooner.
Indeed, stock analysts say it's not companies like SNET and Equifax that
worry them. Most analysts will see that companies have a handle on it and will not change their rating on the company, says Terrence Tierney, an equity analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York.
Tierney warns that if a company doesn't have a good handle on the problem
going into 1998, the impact on earnings could be more than a few cents. Late starters on the year 2000 problem will face rising costs and increased risk of legal liabilities associated with the failure to make sure their company's computer systems are capable of handling dates in the next millennium.
In a recent J.P. Morgan report titled The Year 2000 Problem-It's Worse
Than We Thought, the firm adjusts its opinion of year 2000 from ***big deal, not a disaster to disaster*** because so many companies and government agencies have yet to begin working on the problem. The report says that last year, using an estimate that total year 2000 conversion costs would be $200 billion, J.P. Morgan calculated that 99.6% of the cost could have been met by IS budgets. Now, using a revised estimate of $600 billion, J.P. Morgan estimates IS budgets will be able to cover just 60.2% of the total expense. There are ways to make room for year 2000 fixes in the IS budget, however. The results of a worldwide benchmark study released last week by Meta Group Inc., a Stamford, Conn., consulting firm, shows that 90% of the 873 participating companies expect to spend 25% of their IS budgets on year 2000 projects. But instead of calling for additional funds, a lot of that money can be culled from existing IS funds, says Howard Rubin, the Meta Group research fellow who conducted the study.
According to the study, 30% of IS spending is slated for non-value producing activity, such as maintenance of systems that don't help generate revenue. People wondering how to fund the thing can get smart and start to improve their effectiveness, says Rubin.
CONTAINING SPENDING
Some early starters may be able to keep most or all of their year 2000
spending contained in the IS budget. Chase Manhattan Corp. in New York,
for example, expects its IS budget will be able to absorb nearly all of the bank's estimated $250 million in year 2000 conversion costs.
Similarly, at First Union Corp., total year 2000 costs are estimated to be $42 million, an amount that can be absorbed by the IS budget with some juggling of IS staff responsibilities, says Richard Alden, business application manager for special projects at the Charlotte, N.C., bank. It's a big cost, he says, but there are things we would have been doing anyway, such as purchasing additional DASD hardware, that will have usefulness beyond the year 2000 project.
Copyright ( c ) 1997 CMP Media Inc. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 23:00
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com): - Interesting study from JP Morgan
http://www.jpmorgan.com/MarketDataInd/Research/Y2Kupdate/Y2K.HTM - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:55
Ted @hangseng>(@hangseng): - Hang Seng continues to mirror the dow...up 144.....Nikkei down 69...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:51
Shek home>(home): - Here is the opinion of U. S. Senator Christopher Dodd
Let me paint a picture for you, Mr. Chairman, of what could happen if
this problem is not addressed. It's December 31, 1999; you're at home
watching the ball drop in times square.
By the time the ball hits the ground, your bank accounts could be gone.
Your mutual funds and pension accounts - gone. If you're a small
businessman, your billing systems could be gone. All vanished into
cyberspace purgatory.
Fortunately, the financial services industry is somewhat ahead of the
curve in dealing with this problem.
However, it's important to note that there isn't a single financial
institution, securities firm or insurance company that is year
2000-compliant today. So we're basing our optimism for compliance
on the hope that everything the banks, securities firms and insurance
companies are doing today will actually correct the problem. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:49
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:45
Cobol 1>(1): - How about this!
Chairman Robert Bennett of the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions
of the Senate Banking Committee made this statement on July 10:
The financial services industry is particularly susceptible to the Year
2000 problem. The industry uses computers to calculate interest and
mortgage payments, process stock trades, and access account
information. Without reliable systems to do this work, interest could be
miscalculated, stock trades could vanish, and customers could have
difficulty accessing their account balances or their credit cards. The
financial services industry must also recognize that the Year 2000
problem presents business risks that go far beyond the task of correcting
their own systems. The financial services industry is so interconnected
that systems failures by other businesses, including their customers and
vendors, could present significant business risks. Banks could incur
significant credit risk if their borrowers' systems fail. Securities firms could fail to execute trades as a result of a flaw in a counterparty's system.
The financial services industry must also deal with perception risk. Even if all the computer systems are in working order by the end of 1999,
consumers may feel threatened by the uncertainty associated with the
date change. This could result in excess withdrawals from financial
institutions or a sell-off on Wall Street. Consequently, the financial
services industry must work to develop a comprehensive remediation
and testing effort to convince consumers of the integrity of the system. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:42
gklxajflk sdajv>(sdajv): - Shek, regarding your Y2k post, somebody posted a newsflash that Goldman Sachs current gold buying, is the only reason golds price isn't falling.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:37
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Call volume for Dec 360 calls was 4610. And for Feb 360 it was 4607. Sure glad some high roller somewhere thinks 360 is a good strike price, as I have a MUCH, MUCH, MUCH more modest position at this strike. Also it looks like those 2000 Jul 98 $3.50 silver puts Glenn told us about yesterday were finally traded today. Kind of doubt these are protection for a subsequent long position, since that would indicate a willingness to suffer a $1.00/oz -- $10 million -- loss. Comments are welcome and needed!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:37
Shek home>(home): - Fed says they will print lots of money. Inflation ahead?
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BOARDDOCS/TESTIMONY/19970730.htm - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:25
Jack thanks 2>(thanks 2): -
I appreciate your work and it tells me about what i expected. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:19
Larry eaglewg@flash.net>(eaglewg@flash.net): - Examining the positive nature of XAU today, I found the following:
11 gold funds up. 20 gold funds down. Major gold stocks with sizable volume were all up but three, including those which make up XAU.
Conclusion: Most gold stocks are still sagging with the price of gold; but most large enough to be in XAU are rising. Ergo: money coming into gold stocks is going into large capitalization stocks. This is not the average small investor. I suspect this is new money from other mutual funds getting smart. If so, this would be a major paradygm shift because it won't take much new money to create a bull market in gold stocks and funds, regardless of gold. ( see Spring, 1993 for details )
Historically, the XAU moving up by itself usually preceded rallies, but not always.
This message brought to you as a courtesy of the EagleWing page on gold funds, http://www.eaglewing.com
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:15
2 Ray et al>(Ray et al): - Thank you, Ray. That was _exactly_ the sort of comment I had in mind.
Note that 1976 is not necessarily the best reference year, since it yields a 1/3 drop in the constant $ value of gold to present. The base year 1976 ( I had not found CPI figures back that far ) yields a kinder result, namely, that gold is now ( at $320 ) worth 91% of what it was worth ( on average ) in 1976. If we take the 1976 low for gold as our base price, then gold right now is worth ( in constant $ ) 114% of what it was worth in 1976.
So, in summary, the ounce of gold buys you a good suit maxim has tended to hold, depending on what time of year you buy clothing! - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:05
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - Hey 2, that is a varry nice chart! Thanks.
Tally Ho - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 22:04
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Thai Gov't Tries to Reassure People
By Jiraporn Wongpaithoon
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, August 6, 1997; 3:02 p.m. EDT
BANGKOK, Thailand ( AP ) -- Stockpiling cornflakes,
hoarding cash and discarding credit cards, Thais braced for
tough times Wednesday after their hard-pressed government
shut down dozens of finance companies -- and rumors spread
that banks were next on the chopping block.
Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh urged his worried
countrymen to stay calm while government leaders scrambled
to meet the conditions of a much-needed loan of at least $10
billion from the International Monetary Fund.
Chavalit's future hangs on whether the IMF-engineered
austerity and bailout plan can succeed in saving a foundering
economy where his 9-month-old government has failed. He
agreed Tuesday to IMF demands that he overhaul Thailand's
economy -- closing 42 finance companies and increasing taxes.
``We ask all Thais to be united in order to get through these
obstacles,'' Chavalit said. ``Don't panic about the rumors.''
Many Thais apparently didn't listen -- regulators rushed to stop
a run on deposits after rumors spread that commercial banks
would be next to face government closure. The Siam City
Bank said depositors had withdrawn about $20 million since
Tuesday.
``Don't think that if one bank goes, the rest can stay
comfortable forever,'' warned Som Jatuspitak, the bank's
president. ``We have to help each other.''
Ordinary Thais hoarded food, canceled credit cards and
weighed buying gold as a hedge.
``I've got a headache,'' said Duangkaew Chanruang, 36, a civil
servant. ``I can't believe Thailand faces a situation like this.
Many people will lose their jobs and crime will go up.''
Duangkaew was buying all the Kellogg's Corn Flakes and
imported powdered milk she could carry at a Bangkok
supermarket.
Pisanu Sakoontanak, 36, a Diner's Club employee, reported
that hundreds more people than usual had canceled credit over
the past few weeks, in an apparent bid to tighten spending.
Thais reported keeping cash on hand in case of emergency and
many said they were considering buying gold.
After a decade of spectacular growth, Thailand's economy has
been falling since 1996, the victim of a slump in exports and
heavy borrowing in foreign currencies. The finance companies
were stung by bad loans to developers who overbuilt during
the boom.
Regional leaders hope the IMF can clean up Thailand's mess
before it spreads. The de facto devaluation of the baht last
month triggered speculation against other currencies in
Southeast Asia.
Other once-thriving Asian ``tigers'' have faced their own
problems recently: In Japan and the Philippines, financial
systems are still plagued by instability because of similar loan
crises, China worries that debt-laden state-run enterprises
could slow growth and South Korea is just coming out of its
worst economic slump in years.
Japanese Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka on Wednesday
welcomed Thailand's tough economic reform program, and
pledged to support international aid to the Southeast Asian
country. His ministry confirmed that Japan will make the
biggest contribution in an international aid package to Thailand.
Chavalit said the government would instill fiscal discipline by
cutting the budget, but did not say by how much.
Besides closing the finance companies, the government has
agreed to raise the value-added tax from 7 percent to 10
percent, increasing the prices of goods and potentially
worsening inflation.
It pledged not to let foreign reserves fall below $25 billion. The
central bank's latest figures for foreign reserves put them at
$32.4 billion in June, down from $33.3 billion in May. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:46
WDL @future fears>(@future fears): - Shek's discussion of the upcoming millenium problem triggers a very serious concern addressed in today's Boston Globe. Columnist
Richard A. Knox writes at the beginning of his article, The terrorists
released an odorless areosol in a Logan Airport terminal, but no one knew the attack had occurred until several days later, when passengers all over the world began dying from anthrax, a deadly bacterial infection.
The article goes on to talk about the fact that major cities throughout the country are preparing for what they feel will be an eventual biological or chemical attack. It's just a matter of time, in the opinion of some specialists. The nation must prepare for a 'new age of terrorism' involving cheap and hard to detect biological weapons. The article goes on to say that the scary part of all this is that With biological weapons, someone could perpetrate an event and you wouldn't notice for three to five days. Finally, the article states that an unsolved episode occurred last fall in a Dallas hospital in which donuts and muffins were inoculated with shigella, which causes dysentery. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:46
2 Price of gold in constant dollars since 1978>(Price of gold in constant dollars since 1978): - Note that I don't know how this will look once it is posted so please bear with me here folks.
( 1 ) Year
( 2 ) CPI ( 1982-1984=100 )
( 3 ) Avg AU price in constant 1978 dollars
( 4 ) Avg AU price in constant $ as a percent of the 1978 price
( 1 ) ....... ( 2 ) ....... ( 3 ) ........ ( 4 )
________________________________
1978.......65.2......193.24......100.00
1979.......72.6......275.42......142.53
1980.......82.4......484.86......250.91
1981.......90.9......329.78......170.66
1982.......96.5......253.89......131.39
1983.......99.6......277.63......143.67
1984......103.9......226.13......117.02
1985......107.6......192.23.......99.48
1986......109.6......218.89......113.27
1987......113.6......256.00......132.48
1988......118.3......240.70......124.56
1989......124.0......200.22......103.61
1990......130.7......191.37.......99.03
1991......136.2......173.41.......89.74
1992......140.3......159.83.......82.71
1993......144.5......162.35.......84.01
1994......148.2......168.99.......87.45
1995......152.4......164.30.......85.02
1996......156.9......161.15.......83.39
1997......160.4......129.75.......67.14
I created this today by simply gathering the data ( CPI numbers and gold prices ) and doing the multiplication.
Comments and cordial attaboys are welcome.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:45
Bear poster USA>(USA): - Wednesday August 6 6:30 PM EDT
Shrinking bank loan reserves worries U.S. agency
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 ( Reuter ) - A U.S. federal regulatory agency warned U.S. banks on Wednesday over declining reserves for
bad loans and leases, and easing loan underwriting standards in general.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ( OCC ) said it sent an advisory letter to national banks urging them to be fully prepared
should adverse economic conditions occur.
Noting that the U.S. economy has been healthy for several years, with record levels of bank earnings and capital, the OCC said:
``Banks must be prepared for the possible onset of adverse conditions.''
``This is also an appropriate time for banks to strengthen allowance methodologies and, if necessary, the the allowance itself,'' the
OCC said. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:32
aurophile ^>(^): - 6pak: transnational corporations which happen to be incorporated in delaware, usa for legal reasons are no more american than they are canadian or icelandic. for a discussion of the transnational corporation versus the nation state see eric hobsbawm's the age of extremes published by pantheon books ny/london, 1994. also when the usa was being developed in the late 19th century, the bulk of the funds were european: mines, railroads, agriculture, you name it.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:31
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - EBN Gold up .30 and Silver @ unch....quiet night....eh...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:26
Shek @home>(@home): - Research by leading American banks reinforces fears of worldwide disruption to business at the end of the century, writes Frank Kane
Millennium bomb may cripple Wall Street
AMERICA's top investment banks are becoming i1ncreasingly worried about the millennium time bomb the built-in dating fault that threatens to wreak havoc with computers at the turn of the century.
According to the latest research from three of Wall Street's
biggest banks, the problem could damage New York's
financial industry by disabling those banks that are not
prepared for the change.
Merrill Lynch, which has a $200m ( £125m ) budget to
tackle the problem, says it poses a genuine challenge to
the networked world. Morgan Stanley, which is spending
$60m, describes it as a serious and critical challenge for
all modern organisations. Goldman Sachs says the
problem has far-reaching implications, not just for the
computing services industries but for all businesses.
The evidence will worry European financial centres still
trying to assess the scope of the problem. Goldman says:
It is already clear that the combined expertise of Europe's
computing services industries will not be sufficient to
address the problem; many new businesses will be left out
in the cold as the new millennium approaches.
******One banker says: This is not a prediction, it is a certainty
there will be serious disruption in the world's financial
services industry. I can't tell whether it's going to be 10%
business failure, or a meltdown, but it's going to be ugly. ******
He predicted a millennium-induced worldwide crash
around the middle of 1999.
The millennium problem arises because most computers
read only the last two digits of the year's date, assuming the
19 prefix. When the clock ticks at midnight on December
31, 1999, many computers will not recognise the 2000
date and will malfunction. ***If this happens on a global scale,
the results could be catastrophic, experts believe.***
The task of rewriting computer programs to recognise the
new date is labour-intensive and costly. Programmers
expert in arcane computer languages will have to go
through miles of programs and change each date
individually. Merrill puts the global cost at $600 billion
more than the cost of the Vietnam war or the Kobe
earthquake in Japan.
The complexity of changing existing programs is illustrated
by the project undertaken by Morgan Stanley, which is
among the most advanced. It says it is the biggest
information technology ( IT ) project the firm has
undertaken, involving 400 man-years of work.
The project has been under way for 18 months, and only
10% of software has been rectified so far. But the firm is
confident it will complete it in time to set up and test by
1999. So far, 250,000 debilitating bugs have been
uncovered, any one of which would create a glitch in the
system. IT experts believe that if all were left unremedied,
the firm would almost certainly be put out of business.
Merrill warns that many institutions that have corrected the
problem will still feel the millennium bomb's effects. Even
institutions that have fixed their own internal problem will
feel the ripple effects from the problems recurring
externally, it says.
The bank says the millennium is the centre of attention
among top executives, line managers and technologists. A
team of 100 people is working round the clock to
inventory, examine, correct and test all systems before
2000. With 170m lines of code running worldwide, this is
no small or inexpensive task. Over the next three years,
about 1,500 man hours will be spent on the problem.
Merrill says: As we enter the 21st century, meeting the
challenge is not a choice, but a condition of survival in the
digital economy.
Goldman believes the problem has big investment
implications. We urge investors to examine the level of
compliance across the companies in which they are
investing, it says. Without trying to sound alarmist,
investors must consider the risk of significant additional
expenditure not just after 2000 but in the years preceding
it. Goldman says next year will be the year of answers
when companies will hit peak spending on millennium
projects.
Some brokers have viewed the millennium problem as an
investment opportunity for those companies software
groups and programmers that could expect to see a surge
in demand, but Goldman warns: We assume that 2000
will provide only a modest benefit to the companies in our
coverage list.
Greg Gould, the firm's technology analyst, says: There
could be a market correction sooner than 1999, maybe the
second half of next year, when some companies start to
miss profit forecasts.
However, in contrast to its two Wall Street rivals,
Goldman does not see the problem as a threat to its own
systems. It says: We have assessed the problem well in
advance and due to the providers we use and our
technology mix, this is not a significant issue for the firm. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 21:10
tanami xau again>(xau again): - how now bright xau? is there a futures contract in the Xau?
Does anyone have any thoughts on futures compared with options
for the Xau? Is the Xau the best gold index to trade?
if you are able to spare a moment... - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:56
6pak More History @ Canada>(More History @ Canada): - After 1914 ( note:USofA Federal Reserve Created ) Britain could not lend
convertible currency to Canada. Canada's New York loans, therefore,
helped to pay for Canada's imports from the USofA. Life became more
difficult in 1918 when USofA, having entered the war, placed an embargo
on new foreign borrowings. Sir Thomas White, minister of finance, in
May 1918 sought an exception from the rule. As a result, in June 1918,
was a New York loan for $65 million which pushed the dominion's USofA
borrowings to $285 million. Sir Thomas had borrowed far larger sums in
Canada. ( WW I August 04,1914 )
Since the end of World War II, foreign investment in Canada has undergone
two major changes. The first was a great increase in total amount from
$8.7 billion in 1950 to $68.6 billion ( long term ) in 1975. Even allowing
for inflation of 140 per cent, an increase of that amount is without
precedent in any major industrial country, with the possible exception
of Australia.
Foreign capital invested in Canada rose from 39 per cent in 1946 to
46 per cent in 1950 and to 58 per cent in 1960. Since 1966 it has hovered
between 58 per cent and 61 per cent with no particular trend.
Of the $39.8 billion of ( *direct* ) foreign investment in Canada by 1975,
$32.2 billion had been invested by USofA corporations. The impact of this
change toward *direct* investment by the largest corporations can be seen
in the ownership of the 200 largest Canadian industrial corporations: 91
are the subsidiaries of firms numbered among the 500 largest USofA Corps.
Foreign *direct* investment tends to be one of two quite different kinds:
either an investment made to take advantage of opportunities in the
market of the *Host* country, or, an investment made to
*exploit Resources* available in the *Host* country. The nature of the
assets transferred from the *parent* corporation to the subsidiary varies
accordingly.
Foreign ownership is particularly high in manufacturing and non-renewable
resources ( petroleum and mining ) . In 1974, the total capital employed
in these two major sectors was $62 billion, nearly half of the $129.7
billion of capital employed in the major industrial sectors of Canada, of
the $44.1 billion in foreign-owned investment in the ( *non-financial* )
sectors in Canada in 1974, $33.6 billion ( 76 per cent ) was in
manufacturing and non-renewable resources ( petroleum and mining ) .
In making investment outside their base countries, multinational enter-
prises are maximizing the *rent* they can obtain from their *Core Skills*
( Information not just of a technology or of a market, but of one in
relation to other...A *collective skill* transfered most efficiently
within the administrative channels of the multinational corporation,
rather than between corporations through the market, by arms length
transactions, between independent firms )
Canadian-controled firms to be efficient and to compete against foreign
subsidiaries who have access to their parent *core skills*. Because of
this access, foreign subsidiaries often enjoy a significant competitive
advantage over Canadian-owned firms. In research done for the Commission,
Caves, concluded that although there was no systematic decrease in the
proportion of *Value Added* accounted for by Canadian controlled
establishments in large size classes, their productivity was
( * 19 per cent * ) below that of foreign-controlled subsidiaries, mainly
because of this technological gap. ( * Collective Skills * )
Sooooo, the saying goes:
Information is knowledge...And knowledge is power.
Truth-full and honest information, is difficult to obtain, the noise
associated with the available information, makes investing a near
impossible task.
Risk is highest in an environment with such noise, as 1997. The modest
investor, has two choices, run with the paper ( nothing = something,thing )
winnings, or get back to the basic ( Gold )
The bankers, have conned, and seized, our money system and created
money according to their will. This money is based on our resources, and
they have plunged us into unpayable debts, making this money system
a swindle against the Canadian citizen. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:35
WSF A physicist weighs in>(A physicist weighs in): - From Hyperspace, by Michio Kaku:
If this occured, a tiny bubble might suddenly appear in our universe. Within this bubble, the Standard Model would no longer hold, so a different set of chemical and physical laws would apply..... This bubble would then expand at the speed of light, swallowing up entire star systems, galaxies, and galactic clusters, until it gobbled up the entire universe......We would never know what hit us.
Is he talking about the stock market? - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:31
nomercy Treasury resignations>(Treasury resignations): - WASHINGTON ( AP ) — Two Treasury Department officials who
hastily composed memos justifying $11 million in grants to banks
owned by friends of the Clintons resigned Wednesday, Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin told a congressional committee investigating
the matter.
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/business/wires2/f_0806_119.sml - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:25
nomercy Shorts vs Commercials>(Shorts vs Commercials): - Earlier news story alluded, that shorts are ready to squeeze producers who face the dilemma of selling forward or closing their mines. Obviously the 'speculative shorts' are keeping the pressure on, though lease rates are climbing back higher. 'Shorts' volume in recent days is not that significant ( perhaps its a few locals, who believe in their own negative generated news quotes and wishful thinking ) . Unless significant short selling volume is in the imminent horizon, these 'small speculators' will get blown out as physical buying season is underway in Asia. Labor Day is not that far away...that's when I expect the Dow to commence a mild 10-15% correction.
If we get significant short selling volume it'll be a showdown at the old corral. Timing appears to be on the 'longs' side, but that won't hinder the shorts. Greed never knows when to stop.
I'm ready. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Investors assured
A-share market bounces upon
pledge of support
By Xiao Wu
SHANGHAI'S A-share market rebounded moderately
amid thin trading last week, helped by the central
government's pledge of continuous support for the
securities market.
On Thursday, Vice Premier ZhuRongji restated the
importance of securities market during his inspection tour
of State-owned enterprises in Northeast China's Liaoning
Province.
Zhu said the market is an effective way to collect money
for cash-stripped State-owned enterprises, the sector the
government supports.
Zhu's remark helped improve market sentiment, local
traders said.
The exchange Composite Index, charting mainly A shares
available for domestic investors, improved 21.97 points, or
1.88 per cent, to close at 1,192.82.
However, the B shares reserved for foreign, Hong Kong,
Taiwan and Macao investors ended lower with most
investors waiting for clear direction.
The B-share index lost 1.84 points, or 2.43 per cent, to
end the week at 73.79 points.
More than 1.6 billion A and B shares changed hands
during the week to generate 16.6 billion yuan ( $2 billion ) in
trading volume, compared with 24 billion yuan ( $2.9
billion ) traded the previous week.
The thinner trading indicated that there's no fresh capitals
flowing to the market and retail investors kept to the
sidelines, local traders said.
Of 398 stocks traded, 255 gained and 137 lost. Six shares
were unchanged.
Traders said the rebound on the A share market is also
helped by the slow-down of new shares listing, which
would otherwise siphon a large portion of capitals off the
market.
On the other hand, some institutional selling of stocks that
were expected to post poor interim results depressed the
market, which made most investors unwilling to make
additional purchases, traders said.
All listed companies are required to issue interim results by
the end of August, but only a handful have done so, they
said.
The A-share market opened last week in a dull mood with
the index falling 29.08 points on Monday.
The market rebounded gradually in the next four days.
B shares did not move in tandem with A shares, declining
continuously in the first four days and ended slightly firmer
on Friday with funds seen flowing back into the market
from abroad. Much of the demand focused on market talk
of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical restructuring.
There were signs that the Government is going to make the
stagnant B-share market more appealing to foreign
investors, according to the Shanghai Financial News, an
in-house newspaper of the People's Bank of China,
Shanghai branch.
The newspaper noticed that slews of reports discussing the
ways of buoying B-share markets have been widely
published the past week.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:13
Donald @Home>(@Home): - D-Mark: Fall to 8-year low against dollar
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6 1997
By Andrew Fisher in Frankfurt and Richard Adams in London
The D-Mark fell to its lowest level against the dollar for eight years in
European foreign exchange trading yesterday, prompting speculation of
Bundesbank intervention to bolster the currency.
In London, the German currency shed 1.5 pfennigs to close at DM1.879
against the dollar. During trading the US currency was sold for over
DM1.88 - its highest rate since 1989 - before the D-Mark rallied in
Europe.
The D-Mark's fall has increased expectations that the Bundesbank could
let short-term interest rates rise to lift the currency. The test will come next
week, when the central bank announces the next round of securities
repurchase ( repo ) agreements, which it uses to provide market liquidity.
The latest repo, announced yesterday, was again at a fixed rate of 3 per
cent. But only the first two repos during the four-week summer break will
be fixed. The third could be switched to a variable rate next week,
allowing it to attract investors and halt the dollar's climb.
Some economists say a small repo rise could hit Germany's slow recovery,
with little effect on the dollar. It could also anger other European countries
with currencies linked to the D-Mark, especially ahead of monetary union.
Others argue a pre-emptive move by the Bundesbank could nip inflation
in the bud.
Mr Otmar Issing, chief economist of the German central bank, expressed
concern about the rising dollar and its impact on potential inflation. But in
an interview with Börse Online, an investment magazine, he said there was
no automatic link between interest rate decisions and a particular dollar
level.
As the dominant world currency, the dollar of course has special
importance, Mr Issing said. It is not the level, but the rapid decline in the
value of the D-Mark that is a cause for concern, he said in the interview
last week, when the dollar was below DM1.84.
Mr Issing also said the economy could reach the government's growth
target of 2.5 per cent. Some economists said this suggested that concerns
about slowing economic growth would not hinder a change in policy.
Late yesterday, the Bundesbank denied rumours that its central bank
policy council was planning an emergency meeting today. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 20:01
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - George, John and etal- one way that SA has to combat lower gold prices is to lower the Rand. In the article I posted about Western Areas buying back their hedge the chairman Brett Kibble predicted a lower Rand and higher gold prices. Now, a situation like that could be explosive for the right SA shares. During 1996 for a brief preiod we had that situation and our position doubled in the SA golds. THEY AIN't GOIN TO LET THOSE JOBS GO DOWN THE DRAIN. Also, as I have said many times here most prople do not understand the SA mining industry. These mines are like a big warehouse, they can mine ore from the shelf that the current gold price dictates.
Tally Ho - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:55
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WDL: Your reference to Ford's Theatre reminds me of a famous one-liner, still in bad taste 132 years later...Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln; how did you enjoy the show?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:48
Mike Sheller @Liberty>(@Liberty): - WHO CARES?: Over the philosophical weekend you called yourself a libertarian I believe. And there was much banter back & forth about free markets. I urge you to
read Man, Economy, and State by that great free market economist Murray
Rothbard. ( Nash Publishing ) . It may be hard top find in this age of Robert Prechter
and Deepak Chopra, but it is a magnificent exposition on true economics in the most
radical manner.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: Here it would be lon GUYLAND, noo YAWK
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:42
Miro Thursday is make it or break it day for the bond market>(Thursday is make it or break it day for the bond market): - Things don’t look too good for bonds
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/06/z0000_z00_29.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/06/z0000_z00_28.html
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:42
WDL play on words (with apologies to tortfeasor)>(play on words (with apologies to tortfeasor)): - A large throng had gathered during vacation week at Washington's
Ford's Theater...A long line queued its way to a guest register where visitors from all over the nation were signing their name and home town. Just then...
a rambunctious, young boy named Sheldon bolted away from his parents
and rushed ahead to sign the register just ahead of a group of
nuns...Right then and there...Sheldon's parents rightfully scolded the boy...blurting out to all within earshot..Wait till the nuns sign Shelley!
OR, if you prefer and you're old enough to remember: Wait Till the Sun Shines Nelly... - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:42
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Thailand: Government unveils tough
economic reforms
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6 1997
By Ted Bardacke in Bangkok
The Thai government approved a sweeping package of economic reform
measures designed to give it access to $12bn-$15bn ( £7.3bn-£9.2bn ) in
emergency credits from the International Monetary Fund and elsewhere.
In a separate announcement, the Thai central bank suspended the
operations of 42 struggling finance companies after negotiations with the
IMF on restoring stability to the ailing financial system.
Mr Michael Camdessus, managing director of the IMF, greatly
welcomed the package, saying he hoped to present it soon to the Fund's
executive board for endorsement. He said the Fund was working with the
authorities to develop [the plan] into a multi-year adjustment programme
that could be supported by IMF resources.
The central bank said it had lent Bt500bn ( £9.6bn ) in emergency liquidity
support to these and 16 other companies suspended in late June. It also
said the financial system had seen withdrawals of Bt15bn-Bt20bn a week
for an unspecified period.
We can't take this burden any more, said Mr Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi,
central bank governor. We need to get tough, before the whole financial
system is infected, or we will have no financial institutions left.
The suspensions and volume of government support shocked financial
markets and overshadowed the government's decision to authorise the
finance ministry and central bank to sign a loan agreement with the IMF as
soon as it was ready. An IMF official said good progress was being made
and it was expected that an agreement would be sent to the IMF's
executive board for approval soon.
The stock exchange closed down 2.3 per cent, while trading in bank and
finance stocks was suspended. The baht was slightly weaker in domestic
trading and slightly stronger off-shore.
Other parts of the package include a pledge to maintain foreign currency
reserves of at least $25bn, or three months of import cover.
Monetary policy will remain tight and value added tax will rise to 10 per
cent from 7 per cent from August 16. The government budget will be
balanced, beginning with cuts to next year's budget of up to Bt100m,
although spending on education, public health and infrastructure will not be
affected.
Targets include a reduction in the current account deficit from 8 per cent of
gross domestic product last year to 5 per cent this year and 3 per cent next
year. Economic growth is pegged at 3-4 per cent for the next two years,
while inflation is targeted to be no more than 9 per cent annually.
In a televised address, Mr Thanong Bidaya, finance minister, blamed the
country's problems on too much foreign borrowing by the private sector to
invest in the stock market and property sector and too many imports.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:36
Mike Sheller A -Way>(A -Way): - EB: We former Bronx and Brooklynites tend to pronounce it LUNG Island. But in any event, as far as my omnipotence is concerned, from your lips to God's ears! My wife may have other comments.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Kenya: Turmoil in markets after IMF loan
suspension
Originally published: SATURDAY AUGUST 2 1997
By Michela Wrong in Nairobi
The International Monetary Fund's decision to suspend Kenya's loan
programme triggered alarm in the country's markets yesterday, with foreign
investors scrambling to dump equities and treasury bonds as the currency
plummeted.
Despite an appeal by Mr Micah Cheserem, governor of the central bank,
for investors to behave responsibly, the news that the IMF loan had
collapsed because of the government's failure to tackle corruption hit
investor confidence as soon as markets opened.
The shilling, which closed on Thursday at 59 to the dollar, touched 65 in
the morning, its lowest point for four years, but later rallied to close at 61.
The Nairobi Stock Exchange saw unusually high turnover, with the
20-share index falling 13.68 points to stand at 3453.18.
Worst affected was the fixed-interest market, as foreign investors sold
Ks250m ( $4.1m ) worth of central bank treasury bonds, compared with a
total of Ks13.35m sold during the whole of last week.
This has been one of my worst days, said Mr John Munge, a Nairobi
broker. Foreign investors keep ringing up asking whether the country's
whole macro-economic reform programme could go into reverse.
They want to know how bad the falling-out between Kenya and the IMF
was and how long it is going to take to get back to the drawing board.
Unless someone at senior government level issues a clear policy statement
the market is going to remain very nervous.
Analysts said much of the market reaction was prompted by expectations
that bilateral donors and the World Bank would also freeze assistance,
putting a brake on economic growth.
But western donors kept a discreet silence yesterday, admitting only to
being very disappointed by the Kenyan government's failure to satisfy
IMF concerns.
The loan suspension came after President Daniel arap Moi over-ruled Mr
Musalia Mudavadi, his finance minister, who had earlier agreed to reinstate
the dismissed commissioner of customs and excise.
Widely regarded as a linchpin in the fight against corruption, Mr Samuel
Chebii's dismissal last week - bypassing the supposedly-independent
Kenya Revenue Authority - dealt a final blow to IMF confidence in the
government's commitment to crack down on graft.
Opposition leaders yesterday welcomed the IMF move, saying it would
further their campaign to force Mr Moi to introduce constitutional reforms
ahead of elections due later this year. This is welcome, said Mr James
Orengo, deputy head of the FORD-Kenya party. Together with the
political pressure we are now mounting it may bring Moi to his senses.
Mr Mudavadi yesterday outlined the size of the problem now facing the
country. He said Kenya had been counting on the IMF to provide it with
$74m in foreign exchange support in the 1997/98 budget and that World
Bank, African Development Bank and multilateral grants linked to the IMF
programme would have produced an additional $141m.
He gave no details on how he intended to bridge the gap. Analysts
speculated import duties, income tax and VAT might be raised and
development expenditure slashed. But the government may also need to
increase domestic debt by issuing new treasury bonds.
Both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Cheserem have said they hope the government
will soon start discussing a possible shadow programme - in which the
IMF provides advice but no credits - with the Fund. But some observers
believe the acerbic nature of the final exchanges between Mr Moi and the
Fund meant a pause would be necessary to allow tempers to cool.
The political fallout of the suspension was still making itself felt yesterday
within the administration, as the rift between pro-reformers appalled by the
break with the IMF and hardliners resentful of outside interference
continued to widen.
In a gesture of defiance towards the president's office, the revenue
authority said it would not approve Mr Chebii's transfer to the Ministry of
Finance's audit department, saying it regarded the move as illegal.
Officials said Mr Fares Kuindwa, the head of the civil service who
originally authorised Mr Chebii's removal, had demanded an apology from
the KRA for its refusal to rubber-stamp the reappointment.
There were also signs that the government was trying to win at least some
approval from the donor community with the publication of a draft of a
tough anti-corruption bill.
But it was not immediately clear whether the bill put forward by Mr Amos
Wako, the attorney-general, would create an authority which would have
the sweeping powers to prosecute top officials implicated in scandals that
donor countries would like to see. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:33
Byron @ No Show:>(@ No Show:): - What! No word from the Gold Show in Las Vegas which I believe ended today. Well, truely a sign of the bottom.: )
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - South Africa: Speculation surrounds
mining restructuring
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6 1997
By Mark Ashurst in Johannesburg
South Africa's two leading black businessmen are set to emerge as the key
players in the restructuring of the country's troubled mining industry,
following a bid for Tavistock, JCI's coal subsidiary, by Gold Fields of
South Africa.
The move is the first indication that Mr Cyril Ramaphosa, deputy chairman
of New Africa Investments, South Africa's biggest black- controlled
company, could enter into negotiations with Mr Mzi Khumalo, chairman of
JCI, the country's first black-controlled mining house.
New Africa is in talks with Rembrandt, the industrial and mining group
controlled by South Africa's Rupert family, to acquire joint control of Gold
Fields, the world's third largest gold producer.
The talks are widely expected to install Mr Ramaphosa, who was last year
defeated by Mr Khumalo in the bidding for Anglo American's controlling
stake in JCI, at the head of Gold Fields.
Analysts said a deal between Tavistock and Gold Fields, which owns coal
reserves adjacent to JCI mines, could trigger a new era of co-operation
across the mining industry.
My impression is that this initiative comes from the highest level. If they
have aspirations to build sound companies, they will forget their
differences. Without increasing its size, Gold Fields Coal does not have the
critical mass to survive in the longer term, said Mr Dean Cunningham,
analyst at Investec in Johannesburg.
JCI last month secured an option to buy Anglo American's 26.7 per cent
stake in the UK-based Lonrho group for R2.45bn ( $529m ) , and is already
pursuing closer ties with Duiker, Lonrho's coal subsidiary. The Gold Fields
offer will increase pressure on Lonrho to re-examine Mr Khumalo's
proposal to merge the UK-based group with JCI. Merger talks broke
down in June following opposition from Lonrho.
If JCI's merger ambitions with Lonrho fail, analysts say JCI could accept
the Gold Fields offer, which would help fund its obligation to Anglo, due in
November. A deal with Gold Fields Coal could signal the first intention of
an aggressive takeover of Lonrho by JCI, said Mr Cunningham.
Shares in Sentrachem, the South African chemicals producer, gained
almost 25 per cent to close at R10 in Johannesburg, following a takeover
bid by US-based Dow Chemical. The shares were suspended at R7.92 on
Friday.
Dow's offer of R10.50 a share was this week accepted by Sankorp, a
subsidiary of life assurer Sanlam, which holds 38 per cent of Sentrachem.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:21
Miro Joke continues>(Joke continues): - As I was driving to work today, there was this money talk show on a
radio. One fellow asked the question: I have this $10,000 for
emergencies .. you know .. when my car breaks or my home central air
condition gives up… I don’t get a good return from my bank and would
like to put it into stocks … So what is the best mutual fund?.. :-o
In that spirit I took a liberty to modify Tortfeasor’s morning joke:
THE DOW
In the Beginning was the DOW.
And then came the assumptions.
And the assumptions were without form.
And the DOW was completely without substance.
And the darkness was upon the face of the experienced investors .
And they spoke among themselves saying: It is a crock of sh_t,
and it stinketh.
And the old investors went unto market analysts, and sayeth:
It is a pail of dung, and none can abide the odor thereof.
And the market analysts went unto economists and sayeth unto them,
It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong,
such that none can abide it.
And the economists went unto the Federal Reserve Board and sayeth,
It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none can abide its strength,
And the directors spoke amongst themselves, saying one to another:
It contains that which aids plant growth, and is very strong.
And Alan Greenspan went to Capitol Hill, and sayeth unto them,
This new market will actively promote growth and efficiency of
this economy, and certain areas in particular.
… And the president looked at the testimony, and sayeth to his
countrymen: My fellow Americans, I gaveth you a strong economy with
no inflation and growing stock market. Don’t worry, put your money
into mutual funds
And the Johny homeowner took a home equity loan and put money into
mutual fund.
And this is how sh_t happens.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:20
WDL Conflicting Thoughts>(Conflicting Thoughts): - An enigma wrapped in riddle...gold down today...yet ABX up 2% to
22 7/16ths...nicht verstehen?
Under the heading: Workers of the World Unite!...First UPS..maybe
Amtrak...whose next?...Are there cracks in this Brave New Goldilocks
World? - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:08
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX): - Sorry about two posts my connection was not working.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:07
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX): - JF Aug5 - 19:59 - Re: Silver puts. A fund was the buyer and a Precious metals dealer was the seller.
Ron Aug5 - 20:10 - Re: Buying of calls - Unknown source was the SELLER and the Floor traders were forced to be the buyers. Not very bullish.
Steve Aug5 - 22:29 - Re: Buying July98 $3.50 puts and then buying futures. That seems far fetched. After all since the silver contracts are more expensive as you go out ( Time ) July98 silver is about $4.60 or so. So someone is using a $1.10 plus the 5 cents for the put, $1.15 stop in silver. Then if silver is below $4.65 but above $3.50 the puts expire worthless and you have a big loosing position needing to be rolled forward? From a bullish perspective it does not look good. More than likely the fund is gambling that, like Gold, silver will break it's '93 low. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 19:02
JIN FWNEWS>(FWNEWS): - Ted and all,
news from fwnews,try this http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/get32.exe.
put my order last nite at 315 per oz.FAILED!Probably this morning,not sure!QUITE CLOSE ,YET TOO FAR!
RGDS,
JIN. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 18:09
Glenn XXXX>(XXXX): - JF Aug5 - 19:59 - Re: Silver puts. A fund was the buyer and a Precious metals dealer was the seller.
Ron Aug5 - 20:10 - Re: Buying of calls - Unknown source was the SELLER and the Floor traders were forced to be the buyers. Not very bullish.
Steve Aug5 - 22:29 - Re: Buying July98 $3.50 puts and then buying futures. That seems far fetched. After all since the silver contracts are more expensive as you go out ( Time ) July98 silver is about $4.60 or so. So someone is using a $1.10 plus the 5 cents for the put, $1.15 stop in silver. Then if silver is below $4.65 but above $3.50 the puts expire worthless and you have a big loosing position needing to be rolled forward? From a bullish perspective it does not look good. More than likely the fund is gambling that, like Gold, silver will break it's '93 low. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:49
Bob @....Slick's question>(@....Slick's question): - If we consider that Wall Street benefits from a paper Bull it is not difficult to appreciate 'how' negetive sentiment in gold price propects could be exagerated and exploited. This is especially important when we consider gold as a contra currency and investment alternative. The gold market is small enough to be managed and important enough to be managed.
Cheers. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:43
nomercy Shorts vs commercials---get your ammo. ready - >(Shorts vs commercials---get your ammo. ready - ): - bw---its a matter of time--noose is getting tighter
``Tomorrow could be an interesting day in gold, and I would think there is still some serious downside risk as basically there's
just been one major player supporting the market,'' Swiss Bank New York precious metals dealer, Greg Drury, said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/06/nem_y0023_1.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:37
Byron @ Finally:>(@ Finally:): - Panda:
Got a chance to look at your charts. Hope it is not too difficult to adjust the charts. Notice your XAU only goes to 98.50 : )
Reminds me of the story when the church people gather at the church to pray for rain. The first question the precher asked was Where's your umbrellas
105 would do fine with me, thank you. ( Will need it by Friday's close. ) 8- ) - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:32
NJ Jerry Favors>(Jerry Favors): - All : The man is consistent. http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/JF0806.HTM
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:29
bw Re: nomercy, gored>(Re: nomercy, gored): - nomercy: Old al should be on very thin ice here but as he is to be the next chief unindited felon, er president, he may be above the law. As I understand it one occurrance of soliciting political contributions, legal bribes, from federal property is a felony. So al will be charged, have his day in court, be convicted, impeached and sent to prison. This is what would happen to you or I ( save the impeachment ) should we commit a public felony. Since we are a nation of laws not kings and dukes this is what must also happen to al.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:21
nomercy Brazil stocks fall for 5th straight day>(Brazil stocks fall for 5th straight day): - RIO DE JANEIRO, 08/06/97 - The Rio de Janeiro Stock Exchange ( BVRJ ) and the National Trading System ( SENN )
yesterday closed down for the fifth consecutive day. With a 0.6% fall in value on Tuesday, the IBV and SENN registered
respective drops of 7.35% and 7.78% in relation to Tuesday of last week. Total trading volume on the Rio de Janeiro market
tallied R$ 9.926 million. Analysts believe the markets are now in the hands of speculative traders. Marcos Jorge, a trader for
the brokerage firm Corretora Agenda, added Right now, with maturation dates on a variety of futures fast approaching, all
sales orders are speculative to bring the index down. ( Gazeta Mercantil ) ( JM )
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 17:10
nomercy Malasya-Stocks fall breaking support levels-Soros being blamed again, this time for selling stocks!>(Malasya-Stocks fall breaking support levels-Soros being blamed again, this time for selling stocks!): - The rumour is that a [US financier George] Soros
fund has sold 1,000 lots [of 200 shares each] of
Maybank through Singapore. I have confirmed this
with two independent parties, a dealing manager at
a domestic brokerage, said.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970806004634056&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2429 - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:56
DJ What's in - what's out?>(What's in - what's out?): - John Disney - Your computed costs/oz come from dividing the R/ton number by the gm/ton number and converting as required to $/oz. If you are correct in that the Moz/year numbers do not include the ancillary metals, then it seems to me your cost/oz calculations are invalid because the data used are contaminated by the other metals.
To get the correct costs, we need the R/ton figures AFTER the credit for the other metals is applied. Then using the total tons mined, we get the correct cost/oz. Since the credit/oz of the non-platinum metals is undoubtedly less than the average mining cost/oz of all the metals, the real production cost of platinum should be somewhat higher than the numbers you posted. Es verdad? ... or is my mind failing me? ( Either is a distinct possibility! )
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:47
slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity): - George Cole said: gold prices have been forced to unsustainably low levels by
huge speculator short selling aided by an intense anti-gold propaganda campaign in the media
and on Wall Street. Couldn't agree more with this statement. Now I
would like to ask the big question WHY? It seems to me that the more sophisticated the market technologies and derivative
trading programs the easier it is becoming to actually move or manipulate
various markets, whether they may be equities or futures. In my opinion the big money on Wall Street and other money corridors around the world
hold hostage the small investor and speculator. Is there really hope after the bubble bursts for
our free markets to survive or will a BIG BROTHER figure appear to
save our economic system? Will the dawn of a new millenium bring in the
collapse of our monetary system as we have come to know it?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:22
nomercy Fund raising>(Fund raising): -
Vice President Al Gore made at least 48 telephone calls
from his White House office seeking political
contributions for the 1996 election season, more than the few
occasions on which he has acknowledged phoning donors.
http://www.washtimes.com/investiga/investiga1.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:19
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for dj
I think problem is that gm/ton number is total metals not
just platinum - ie palladium,rhodium, amd nickel. These last
three treated as byproducts and revenue therefrom subtracted
from operating cost. Thus your 2.85 mill oz versus mu 1.5
mill oz contains all the other metals - does this work for you - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:17
Byron @ Re-Boot Time:>(@ Re-Boot Time:): - Coffee Time At the Library. ( ^*^ )
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:17
George Cole XAU>(XAU): - With bullion down another $2 bucks, the market had every excuse to massacre the gold stocks today. But the XAU jumped 2%. What goes on here?
My take is that stock investors are taking a longer-term viewpoint than futures traders. They seem to agree with the idea that gold prices have been forced to unsustainably low levels by huge speculator short selling aided by an intense anti-gold propaganda campaign in the media and on Wall Street.
The bears could indeed be correct that bullion will shortly make a new low. But the bulls probably also are correct in asserting that gold will be well above current levels a few months hence.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:14
Byron @ Biting At The Bit:>(@ Biting At The Bit:): - Panda: Gonna have to wait until one of the graphic computers become free ( or else I can attempt to bump out two teenagers who are currently using same ) . Since the XAU tried to make it thru 98 several times in the last couple of weeks ( with conviction ) and failed, I've decided that it has a new plan of attack. It will sneak up on the 98th line and try to quitely slip through. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pop in the next two days. ( that is pop up. ) I'd say we see the 105 area by the close on Friday. Anybody else like to take a shot on the Friday close. The prize: Ego gratification.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 16:01
George Cole SA mine costs>(SA mine costs): - John Disney: Thanks for the info on SA mine costs. It confirms my belief that things are not quite as dire for the SA gold industry as some would have us believe. This kind of doomsday also helps the mines in their negotiations with the unions.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:50
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For George Cole -
80 per cent unprofitable below 300 looks a bit
over the top. Some quick numbers - I think RSA
produces something like 16 million oz a year.
It has several large low cost producers
Vaal Reefs, 2.1 mill at 281$/oz -
Southvaal , 1.2 mill at 248$/oz -
Dries , 1.5 mill at 259$/oz -
Beatrix , 0.5 mill at 223$/oz -
Joel , 0.2 mill at 274$/oz -
buffels , 0.3 mill at 260$/oz -
From the above we have 5.8 mill that will remain
ok at 300. Problems are huge mines like fregold
with 2.6 mill at 336 $/oz. High cost shafts can be
closed and get in say half production under 300$ so
say 1.3 mill from fregold.
Kloof is another one. Kloof itself is under 300,
but leeudoorn and Libanon would have to close.
so keep 0.6 mill from Kloof.
This makes total of 7.7 mill still onstream at
a 300 $ price or 7.7/16 = about 50% rather than
20 %.
If it helps to make the gold price go up, then
lets pretend the whole place closes down at 300 $/oz.
But just between us I'd say at least 50% of the
production would still be profitable at 300 $. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:38
REB na>(na): - Here is a news item from a web site in India relating to Reserve Bank of India setting up a trading facility for gold. The expressed purpose is so that gold can be sold for the purpose of soaking up excess dollars. The only alternative now is to buy U. .T-bills!!
http://www.makroindia.com/hlight.htm#01 - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:37
Jack Gene(@Reality)>(Gene(@Reality)): -
Gene: ( 11:05 ) If so inclined? Check out:
Richmont Mines ( ric ) . At CyberWispers hit the news button or http://www.richmont-mines.com
Prime Resources ( pru ) , same button at CyberWispers or
http://www.prime-res.com
Both companies consistenly make money and have proven ability to handle debt.
Also River Gold ( riv ) , not having all the characteristics of the above, but, thus far is making money and seems to be on right track. They even paid a dividend.
I would also take a good look at Aurizon Mines ( arz ) . - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:33
DJ Platinum Supply/Demand>(Platinum Supply/Demand): - John Disney -Thanks for the annual results. No surprises here - close to analyst predictions.
Re: s/d for platinum, the CPM Group shows projected demand in '97 at 5.3Moz., slightly higher than supply. They say RSA total production is 3.4Moz ( in 1996 ) . The figures MUST be accurate, because CPM charges megadollars for their exclusive reports!! ( These are the same people who forecasted $425 gold by the end of 1996. ) They also show supply of PL and PA exceeding demand for many years. Eyeballing the oversupply, and adding up all the years, there should be 4Moz of platinum and 8Moz of palladium sitting around somewhere. How does this jive with the current extreme squeeze caused by lack of supply? It seems when it comes to expert advice, you don't get what you pay for. I think I would prefer to ask Glenn, D.A., or RJ about supply/demand.
BTW, you are right about the meager production of N.A. SWC always makes a point, which is probably right, about being the only significant source of platinum and palladium outside S. Africa and Russia. By my calculations they supply about 1% of the world's platinum and about 2.5% of the world's palladium. Still, who cares, if we can make money! - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:33
panda @XAU>(@XAU): - Byron -- Again, but different...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:30
panda @HUI>(@HUI): - Byron -- This ones for you...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:29
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - I just looked at a chart that shows relative performance between the XAU, GOX, HUI, Fidelity American Gold ( FSAGX ) and Vista Gold ( VGZ ) . When you look at the three indexes and the mutual fund, they have marched step by step with each other. However, Vista has way underperformed. It appears to me that this junior stock ( VGZ ) has been beat to hell for no real good reason. Is there something wrong with this company that I'm not seeing, or is this a buying oportunity waiting to be bought?
http://www.stocksmart.com/ows-bin/owa/ri.tgraphs.d?duration=YTD&abs_rel=R&action=Submit&symbols=+xau&symbols=gox+&symbols=hui+&symbols=fsagx+&symbols=vgz+ - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:28
Ted @kitchen>(@kitchen): - Dow only up 86....XAU up 1.72....back to the kitchen!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:25
Bob A atwork>(atwork): - Must have been a plat. del. today and yesterday.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:23
Ted @EB>(@EB): - EB: brocoli sandwich on the menu... ( whole wheat+Rye bread topped with brocoli,onions,and cheese.... )
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:19
Byron @ The Post:>(@ The Post:): - Looks like Xau is trying to work its way back to that 98 Xau starting gate. Last race was postponed for a few days. Hope THIS one is for real. Today's low in the Xau bounced off the weekly uptrend line which extends back to lst week of July,97.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:16
EB Tort...David...goodhumor...>(Tort...David...goodhumor...): - Is essential during BIG trade days...Thanks...yuk..yuk...
AWAY
EB
really growling now...Ted...what to eat? And drink? - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:10
EB Disney,DJ,RJ...keep it up...re. PL...>(Disney,DJ,RJ...keep it up...re. PL...): - I'm printing out some VERY good info. Much appreciated...indeed! Try to come together ( fix DJ's calculator or whatever ) on some supply numbers, this could be ( IS ) some very important Stuff. TIA.
Away...to food like platinum...to the Moon... ( as stomach growls )
EB - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:06
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - David, I like that bigamist story. But then I am kind of warped, so you better keep and eye on your daughter. She could be inputting stuff on this site under a name like Smartfeasor.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 15:02
Ted @vieserre>(@vieserre): - Vieserre: I think that you're right in that the XAU is tryin to tell us something....I'm starting to think that the XAU has already put in its low...Comex: Gold down 2.10; Silver up 2.5 cents; PL down 18.60; and PA down 12.00...XAU UP 1.56 ...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:59
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ
Thanks for the Platinum Guild site. Im so relieved to find
that these guys are from cyberspace rather than through a time
warp. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:58
DJ Broken calculator?>(Broken calculator?): - John Disney - As an exercise for the student, I checked the calculated costs/oz. from the data you posted. My results were close to yours. However, you also posted the total metal production for each mine in Moz. My calculations show these figures to be way low. I show 2.85, .45, and .15 Moz. for the 3 mines respectively vs your 1.51, .16, .08 figures. For example, for rustplatz: 16.75Mtons at 5.3 gms/ton = 88.78Mgms. Divided by 31.1 gms/troy oz. = 2.85 Moz.
What am I doing wrong? If your figures are correct, this implies the cost/oz would be much higher than those you show.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:54
nomercy Inflows-Outflows>(Inflows-Outflows): - Further to my posting earlier today, equity inflows are slowing and Outflows from international equity funds were unusually high at $1.8 billion, the tracking agency said. In the prior period, an
estimated $1.4 billion went into international equity funds, it said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/06/y0004_y00_5.html
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:51
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for DJ/RJ
Lo and behold - the annual results for rusplats,
lebowa, and pp-rust came out in todays Business Day.
Rusplats are the important item. Their earnings in
1997 fell to 2.12R/sh from 3.14 in 1996. This is due to
the fall in the platinum price from an average of 413$/oz
in 1996 to 387 in 1997, coupled with an increase in
on-mines costs of 7 pr cent.
They produced 1.5 million oz of platinum in 1997.
Lebowa did 80,000 oz, amd pp-rust 150,000 oz.
I havent seen a s/d balance for plats for a long
time but I think that total demand is something like
2 million ( do I tell a lie ) . Also I think that
Japan comprises 80 per cent or so of that amount.
Now, if my guess is correct and 2 million is something
like the truth, then the 3 anglo mines ( exclude implats
and northam ( which is smallish ) must produce 80 or so
per cent of world supply.
Thus I believe it goes pretty well without saying
that Japan would be taking almost all of the RSA supply
and pretty well always has done so.
Where I come unstuck is on the phrase a price that
is not inflexible - I dont find that phrase very clear
you know and I could really live without it. Also I dont
know who the agent is in Japan ( or are there many agents )
How do the Japanese buy platinum One agent handles
jewelery as well and catalyst needs? - I would expect
the companies associated with the various Zaibatsu
trading houses would buy through them - Also where
does Johnson Mathey fit it.
The Rusplat report contains the following statement.
There are signs that Russian platinum sales will be
lower in 1997 than they were in 1996 and it is expected
that the lower supply levels will be maintained for the
foreseeable future which should result in a higher average
platinum price than in the 1997 financial year.
There is no mention of a contract PRICE ( flexible or
not ) and implies that sales are at some average of the
spot price.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:04
Vieserre I Should Of>(I Should Of): - Before you bet that lower gold is due,...you better consider all available clues;
otherwise, you may look back and rue,...I should of paid attention to the XAU
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:00
EB C'mon.platinum.let's.get.ethereal.and.quick...>(C'mon.platinum.let's.get.ethereal.and.quick...): - Mike - once again, your dissection of Messages and Things is uncanny. We were friends in another 'dimension/time'. In May, I was driving through LonGah ( very hard G ) Island and I felt I was in the presence of an Ethereal demi-god ( can you believe that?... long island ) . In our time, you were the benevolent, omnipotent, Kingly Dude and I was merely a serf ( surf ) trying to walk in your HUGE footsteps. I am feeling the need to crawl on someones shoulders...any ideas?
Go PL...AWAY...through all resistence, to your new home of 500-600/oz!!!and make Haste!
EB$$ - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 14:00
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Comex: Gold down 1.20; silver up 1.5 cents; PL down 14.6; and PA down 12.00 ....XAU up 1.17.....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 13:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korea comments on Russian currency reform.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0807/m0807b12.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 13:27
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Another Korean conglomerate requires emergency loan.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0807/m0807b05.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 13:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean banks to secure Kia assets.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0807/m0807b01.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 12:58
Mike Sheller @Kid Platinum>(@Kid Platinum): - RJ: You the Platinum Kid! Just for what it's worth, from my bizarre technical point of view, October Platinum chugging thru my first resistance at 435 is quite peppy ( no Pepi, down bwah, I wasn't talkin' to you ) . The return move from a longterm major breakout is IN. This current rally should now test the previous spike's high. If price gets past 475ish, my observations suggest 500-600 quite readily. Also, astrologically ( I know how you read the papers just for your 'scope ) Mars conjuncting NYSE Neptune this Friday and Monday could signal a blowoff, reaction, or impetus for a continued advance in Platinum ( and also OIL ) . How's that for political speak? The real message tho, without presuming on God, is possibility of extreme volatility in next few days ( what have we BEEN having, Sheller? ) I was heartened by your comments that , from a usage point of view, the price could double and not severely disturb the economies of its ethereal applications. Hindsight, as you point out, is my most valuable indicator. Just like my favorite pocket calculator, on which I have made millions in the markets over and over. Bought some Platinum physical ( lovely Lovely Maple Leafs - I'm too distracted with projects, and chicken, to do futures at present time - maybe in future ) when they were in the high 300's a while ago anticipating the Rhino pattern breakout. Never enuf. Shoulda, coulda, woulda....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 12:32
bw Thailand:>(Thailand:): - The troubles in Thailand need not scare us too much. The 40-50 billion they need to extricate themselves we could print in one afternoon. Whats that you say, but we are dozens of times bigger! So we would need a few weeks to print it. Look how neatly we handled our savings and loan problem. A mere half trillion added to our tbond load and it was done.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 12:03
DJ RSA forward selling>(RSA forward selling): - RJ - Thanks for the clarification. There are still some inconsistancies between your information and that of John Disney, but the important thing is that the RSA mines can apparently benefit more or less fully from the current market prices.
John Disney - Here is a web page maintained by the Platinum Guild if you are interested.
http://www.researchmag.com/platinum/twip.htm - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 12:00
Bridge Vonnegut>(Vonnegut): -
Active Lurker: Thanks for the Vonnegut post yesterday. I sent it to my kids and others. However http://www.nytimes.com/library/cyber/week/080697vonnegut.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 11:59
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - Gold stocks doing well today considering.
Mooney; This is just an estimate, but the current price of gold probably is around $100 in 1974 dollars.
I received the following E-mail today. Perhaps somebody here can answer this student's questions.
Date:
Wed, 6 Aug 1997 15:45:22 SAST-2
From:
KUTTEL RW KTTRIJ01@sonnenberg.uct.ac.za
To:
gscole@ix.netcom.com
Dear Sir
I am a South African student currently writing my finance thesis. I
am trying to obtain certain information and I would be very gratefull
if you could asisit me with this.
This information I require is as follows :
- What is the annual gold production of Australia and China
- What gold mining methods are used in Australia and China ( eg. the
average depth of shafts, quality of ore etc )
- What is average cost of gold production ( per ounce ) in Australia
and China
- The names of any marginal mines in Australia and China and their
average cost of gold production
- The names of the successful/promissing mining companies in
Australia and China
If you could answer ANY of these questions ( either fully or
partially ) , I would be most grateful
Yours faithfully
Rijk Kuttel
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 11:21
MoreGold @It Continues>(@It Continues): - Wednesday August 6 10:46 AM EDT
London gold fixes off lows as complex corrects
LONDON, Aug 6 ( Reuter ) - Precious metals prices corrected slightly from their overnight falls on Wednesday afternoon but dealers said the tone of the markets was still uncertain.
``There is a lot of volatility left in most of these prices,'' one dealer said.
The exception could be gold which gave up its nascent rally from 12-years lows struck last month and seemed to be wedged between producer sell orders above the market and physical buying of the metal on the lows.
``Gold has seen some physical support today and seems to be bumping along its floor,'' one dealer said.
Gold was fixed at $319.35 per ounce up from $318.85 this morning and $321.10 on Tuesday afternoon.
On New York's Comex futures market, the most active December contract was showing a $1.20 loss at $323.40.
For spot gold, the 12-year low touched last month around $314.00 could be tested gain, according to some dealers.
In a commentary from Merrill Lynch Global Fixed Income Research, analyst Ted Arnold argued that a $300.00-$330.00 range would cover most gold trades to the end of the third quarter.
``Rallies will be increasingly seen as forward selling opportunities by producers, funds, dealers and central banks. The immediate downside objective is $300 basis spot. But after that the downside objectives become $280 and $250,'' Arnold said.
Meanwhile dealers said the strong dollar, and the continuing boom in stock and bond markets with little sign of inflation on the economic horizon gave no incentive to buy gold.
Silver picked up a couple of cents from its intraday low to be indicated at $4.36/$4.38, still down three cents.
Some dealers forecast further weakness for silver this week ahead of the Comex option expiry on Friday.
A downside target of $4.25 was being promoted for silver by the end of the week.
Platinum was indicated at $438.00/$441.00 down $9.00 but $12.00 above its opening level.
Platinum and its sister metal palladium had a wild time on Tokyo's Tocom market overnight when investor short covering pushed palladium futures limit-up for the sixth successive session before professional selling plunged the market lower.
``There is a lot of voaltility left in this market,'' one dealer said of palladium which was down $6.50 at $228.00/$231.00.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 11:12
Ron Thais hoarding goods and consider buying gold>(Thais hoarding goods and consider buying gold): - http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1000.htm
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 11:09
vronsky US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION>(US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION): - Japan’s divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Guest Guru Milhouse:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse728.html
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 11:09
DAVE DAVE_HUGHES@bc.sympatico.ca>(DAVE_HUGHES@bc.sympatico.ca): - to all .Check out BYG natural Resources trading on Toronto [SymbolBYG]
Should make 30 cents a share , at least , next year . Trading in the low
90 cent range . Any opinions on this one out there. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 11:05
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - BW I agree with you in that the world is flooded with liquidity. Governments have it great. They can print and print and there is no inflation because the printed money goes into the equity markets, not consumption. The only thing inflated is the equity markets. The governments can run and pay their debts by printing paper which goes into the equity markets. As you have said this cannot last forever.
I continue to nibble at the Junior Gold stocks. Latest aquisition was Vista Gold. I am not wealthy except in spirit ( maybe that is all that counts ) so that when I have extra cash I buy a Junior Gold. This bear market in gold has given me a great buying opportunity. Have a great day bw. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:55
Bob @...quoted from Nesbitt Burns The Gold Review, July 21-97, vol.4, no.11>(@...quoted from Nesbitt Burns The Gold Review, July 21-97, vol.4, no.11): - The current gold price level threatens the profitability of gold producers, particularly in Australia and South Africa. Gold Fields Mineral Services' publication, Gold 1997, indicates that worlwide cash costs and total costs averaged $262 and $317 per ounce in 1996. In 1996, Australia had the highest production costs, followed by South Africa. Combined, these two countries accounted for 784 tonnes ( 33% ) of gold production in 1996. At current prices, approximately 50% of Western world production in 1996 would be unprofitable on a total-cost basis and 25% of production would be unprofitable on a cash-cost basis ( Gold 1997 ) .
1996 - Gold Production Costs ( weighted average costs in US$/oz. )
South Africa - cash costs $293, total costs $334
USA - cash $237, total $300
Australia - cash $294, total $358
Canada - cash $222, total $282
Other ( not specified ) - cash $219, total $297
Total Average - cash $262, total $317
----------------------------end quote --------------------
Eventually, the laws of physical demand and supply will overtake the speculative paper management of gold prices.
Cheers
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:50
RJ DJ, JD, + >(DJ, JD, + ): - I don’t know how things get turned around so. To clarify the following from 8/4/97 21:08:
I had an interesting meeting with the Platinum Guild International a couple weeks ago. Regarding South African producers being hedged:
There is a rather complicated formula for platinum deliveries to Japan, but almost all of the next five years platinum production in South Africa is already sold to the Japanese auto and jewelry industries. Although this metal is effectively already purchased, the delivered price is not inelastic. This is one reason the Russian deliveries would seem to play a more important role than the 15% - 17% of total production which these supplies represent.
There is no real lid on platinum prices. The use of platinum is quite small on a per product basis - excepting jewelry - that the price of platinum could double without significant price increases in the final products.
-This would appear to say that SA platinum commitments are in place for the next five years and , through a rather complicated formula, the delivery price varies. This variance will have a smoother curve than the market as average spot price over the last few months is a major variable is figuring delivery price.. I don’t know where anyone reads that here SA mines are delivering PL at a set price. Quite the contrary, there is no real lid on platinum prices.
This is one of the reasons I am getting frustrated here. I write one thing, then see its meaning turned 180 degrees in less than 24 hours. Maybe it all came to some young trader perhaps in a dream or maybe while he was dozing off in the bath tub.
Platinum Guild International is not nearly as lofty as it sounds. This is a New York based cheerleader for platinum headed by Jaques Luben @ 212-758-6767. I have found, over the years, that Jaques has a keen strategic knowledge of the international platinum market. Jaques’ tireless efforts to promote platinum as an investment vehicle were instrumental in the convincing the US Treasury to introduce the US Platinum American Eagle. Although the first one ounce proofs sold for $695 each, I couldn’t resist buying one. I might have cost almost twice what the metal was worth, but it sure is pretty.
I will try to respond to some others soon. Been a busy couple days. Took a lot of profits in PL yesterday and silver the day before. I wish now that I had taken profits on more than I did. Hindsight is 20/20.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:36
David All:>(All:): -
All:
Seeing that during the daytime there are fewer of us regulars here, here's my chance for posterity:
Daughter: Dad, what the definition of BIGAMIST ?
Me: That's when a man marries more than one wife honey.
Daughter: No it's not dad!
Me: Eh?
Daughter: It's a heavy fog over Italy ..... ( Pause ) BIG a MIST !
TTFN
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:36
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Daytraders. Look at Bart's Platinum graph. Could it be that the traders who went short yesterday around 10 A.M. are doing the reverse today, ( again almost exactly at 10 A.M. ) , covering and/or going long, thus making HUGE one day profits?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:28
Miz Re: Japanese life insurence>(Re: Japanese life insurence): - Donald, Who Cares and WSF: Very interesting. I will send my comment later. I need ten free minutes.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:24
bw Re: Vieserre, paradox>(Re: Vieserre, paradox): - Vieserre: Good point. As I see it this paradox can be explained as such. The world-wide flood of liquidity, which is being produced by almost all the economic powerhouses, has stimulated demand such that there is work for all. Without the flood of imported labor this country would now have 10%+ inflation even with the phoney cpi. The increased margins from this imported labor enable record profits. Alas as all these good things are being paid for on the cuff, tis all ephemeral.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:21
DJ RSA Platinum>(RSA Platinum): - John Disney - Thanks as usual for your information. You are a gem ( nugget? ) . FYI, Stillwater also runs close to a 4:1 ratio of palladium to platinum. However, its average head grade is about .7 oz./ton, which my calculator says is equivalent to 22 grams/ton. Should be worth much more than any of the RSA ore, even though the ratio is reversed.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:06
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - Oz Central Bank sale seen as mistake. BUT CB's gold tonnage remains stable.
http://www.btimes.co.za/97/0720/news/news8.htm - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:05
Vieserre Something to Think About>(Something to Think About): - The strong dollar has the effect of harming domestic manufacturers by having to compete domestically with imports made with cheaper labor and internationally with higher priced products. This should encourage off-shore manufacture, a reduction in domestic capacity, and a reduction in employment. Yet the stock market is predicting greater profits and domestic employment is the highest in 24 years.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 10:05
Vieserre Something to Think About>(Something to Think About): - The strong dollar has the effect of harming domestic manufacturers by having to compete domestically with imports made with cheaper labor and internationally with higher priced products. This should encourage off-shore manufacture, a reduction in domestic capacity, and a reduction in employment. Yet the stock market is predicting greater profits and domestic employment is the highest in 24 years.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:57
WSF ()>(()): - Donald- re:Japanese Life Insurance being bad news. The sheep have no idea how to make an independent assessment of anything. Please indulge me this real life example: I used to work for a division of an insurance company, whose President was obviously ( to me ) obtuse. It boardered on the absurd. But he was a community hero and everyone bought into the image he created.That is, until it was revealed that he had no college degree, and many other aspects of his resume were ficitious. He was quietly removed, and the beat went on. Instead of being condemed in the local media, he was viewed as a victim of everything that could cause a man to be a massive fraud. And no one questioned the record earnings he had been reporting the past several years. I quit many months before b/c of the earnings situation, as did many of my colleagues, but of course the company's stock has down nothing but rise. Bad news simply does not exist in these times.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:44
panda @>(@): - Jeeez! Talk about bad spelling! How about this, it's off to the beach! Now I know it time to go!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:42
panda @!>(@!): - Looks like another exciting day... for paper. Well, it's of to the beach. I think it'll be more 'exciting' there than here. :- ) )
BBML - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:26
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Time for a trip to Sydney.....looks like strong start for paper and weak one fer gold etc....BBL dudes!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:22
Mooney @RJ>(@RJ): - RJ - Where are you man? You asked for my words and I gave them to you at yesterday at 9:52 ( Aug. 5 ) . Haven't seen you since. Still looking for a good dictionary?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:13
George Cole SA mining costs>(SA mining costs): - 60% of SA mines unprofitable at current prices and 80% if gold goes below $300. Do these figures look O.K., John Disney?
SA'S gold mines need the same
survival instinct as politicians
THE local gold mining industry is about to demonstrate whether it has the same
instinct for compromise and survival as the nation's politicians.
The choices are similarly stark. Either come up with a new deal, or face
continued decline and near-certain disaster.
Given that SA possesses about 40% of the world's gold reserves, that sales account
for nearly 20% of export earnings and that up to 2-million people are dependent
on the industry, failure to adjust appears unthinkable. But the high-cost,
deep-level mining industry with its antiquated working practices has been
postponing radical reform for years.
Costs have climbed as the richer seams have been worked out, wage demands have
been conceded without any compensating productivity agreements and few rigid
working practices have been eased to reverse the entrenched hostility between
essentially black labour and white management.
When the gold price topped $800/oz, such practices were scarcely relevant. Even
at $380-$400 the need for reform was not supported by much sense of urgency.
But at about $325, the level at which the metal appears to have stabilised
following its precipitous fall this year, analysts claim at least 60% of mines are
not sustainable. The most alarming of analysts' price projections - gold dipping
below $300 and staying there for an extended period - would leave just 20% of
the country's mines operating profitably.
It is against this background that mine managements and the National Union of
Mineworkers are seeking to complete the details of the industry's first ever pay
deal directly linked to productivity.
Mine managements spent five months working out a proposed deal which was put
to the union last month. It provides for pay rises of up to 25% over each of the
next two years for the lowest paid, while most miners will receive two annual
increases of 9%-10%.
In return, the union pledged to increase output 90 tons in the year beginning last
month, reversing the trend which has seen production decline steadily to the point
where last year it hit a 40-year low of just 495 tons. While mine owners have
agreed how the 90-ton increase will be apportioned among them, the fact that
Gold Fields of SA, the country's second largest producer, is aiming to provide
more than 50% of the increase makes the key the agreement with unions at local
level.
Without that, the pay increases will not be met.
Managements have so far reported uneven progress. Nick Segal, president of the
Chamber of Mines, said this week there had been good progress in some
negotiations, but others were experiencing difficulties.
The picture is uneven, he said. We are continuing to review the position with
the National Union of Mineworkers and hope a clearer picture will emerge later
in the week.
Anglo American, the world's largest producer, said it needed to achieve a 5%
increase in production just to cover the pay rises.
But Bobby Godsell, the head of Anglo's gold mining operations, warned last week
that productivity agreements would take time to achieve because the battle was to
change decades of confrontational industrial relations.
Although the shape of productivity deals will vary from one mine to another, a
common theme in raising output is the extent to which agreement can be reached
on extending the working year.
The tradition of not working Sundays, every other Saturday and public holidays,
costs the industry 90 days a year.
Some production targets might still be met without changing that pattern, but
most managements believe union flexibility is critical to the survival of marginal
mines.
The government is watching nervously. When last year Anglo American said it
might have to dismiss 10 000 miners, Labour Minister Tito Mboweni stepped in
immediately to demand the withdrawal of the threat.
The crisis was postponed but since then, the risk of redundancies has increased,
economic growth has slowed to little above 2% and the government is failing to
meet an increasing number of macroeconomic targets, particularly in job
creation.
Reserve Bank governor Chris Stals has sought to play down the effect on the rand
of a lower gold price. He said that even if gold remained at $320/oz for a full
year, the loss of foreign exchange earnings would be less than 3% of total
exports.
Relative to the volatility of net capital movements, the amount should not create
any undue pressure on the rand exchange rate, he said.
But with Stals also under pressure to cut interest rates to ward off the threat of
recession, failure to finalise the gold mining deal would send further negative
signals to the currency markets.
The present weakness of the rand suggests that even more may be riding on the
gold mining negotiations than the industry on which SA was built. - Financial
Times.
SA'S gold mines need the same
survival instinct as politicians
THE local gold mining industry is about to demonstrate whether it has the same
instinct for compromise and survival as the nation's politicians.
The choices are similarly stark. Either come up with a new deal, or face
continued decline and near-certain disaster.
Given that SA possesses about 40% of the world's gold reserves, that sales account
for nearly 20% of export earnings and that up to 2-million people are dependent
on the industry, failure to adjust appears unthinkable. But the high-cost,
deep-level mining industry with its antiquated working practices has been
postponing radical reform for years.
Costs have climbed as the richer seams have been worked out, wage demands have
been conceded without any compensating productivity agreements and few rigid
working practices have been eased to reverse the entrenched hostility between
essentially black labour and white management.
When the gold price topped $800/oz, such practices were scarcely relevant. Even
at $380-$400 the need for reform was not supported by much sense of urgency.
But at about $325, the level at which the metal appears to have stabilised
following its precipitous fall this year, analysts claim at least 60% of mines are
not sustainable. The most alarming of analysts' price projections - gold dipping
below $300 and staying there for an extended period - would leave just 20% of
the country's mines operating profitably.
It is against this background that mine managements and the National Union of
Mineworkers are seeking to complete the details of the industry's first ever pay
deal directly linked to productivity.
Mine managements spent five months working out a proposed deal which was put
to the union last month. It provides for pay rises of up to 25% over each of the
next two years for the lowest paid, while most miners will receive two annual
increases of 9%-10%.
In return, the union pledged to increase output 90 tons in the year beginning last
month, reversing the trend which has seen production decline steadily to the point
where last year it hit a 40-year low of just 495 tons. While mine owners have
agreed how the 90-ton increase will be apportioned among them, the fact that
Gold Fields of SA, the country's second largest producer, is aiming to provide
more than 50% of the increase makes the key the agreement with unions at local
level.
Without that, the pay increases will not be met.
Managements have so far reported uneven progress. Nick Segal, president of the
Chamber of Mines, said this week there had been good progress in some
negotiations, but others were experiencing difficulties.
The picture is uneven, he said. We are continuing to review the position with
the National Union of Mineworkers and hope a clearer picture will emerge later
in the week.
Anglo American, the world's largest producer, said it needed to achieve a 5%
increase in production just to cover the pay rises.
But Bobby Godsell, the head of Anglo's gold mining operations, warned last week
that productivity agreements would take time to achieve because the battle was to
change decades of confrontational industrial relations.
Although the shape of productivity deals will vary from one mine to another, a
common theme in raising output is the extent to which agreement can be reached
on extending the working year.
The tradition of not working Sundays, every other Saturday and public holidays,
costs the industry 90 days a year.
Some production targets might still be met without changing that pattern, but
most managements believe union flexibility is critical to the survival of marginal
mines.
The government is watching nervously. When last year Anglo American said it
might have to dismiss 10 000 miners, Labour Minister Tito Mboweni stepped in
immediately to demand the withdrawal of the threat.
The crisis was postponed but since then, the risk of redundancies has increased,
economic growth has slowed to little above 2% and the government is failing to
meet an increasing number of macroeconomic targets, particularly in job
creation.
Reserve Bank governor Chris Stals has sought to play down the effect on the rand
of a lower gold price. He said that even if gold remained at $320/oz for a full
year, the loss of foreign exchange earnings would be less than 3% of total
exports.
Relative to the volatility of net capital movements, the amount should not create
any undue pressure on the rand exchange rate, he said.
But with Stals also under pressure to cut interest rates to ward off the threat of
recession, failure to finalise the gold mining deal would send further negative
signals to the currency markets.
The present weakness of the rand suggests that even more may be riding on the
gold mining negotiations than the industry on which SA was built. - Financial
Times.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 09:11
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Comex: Gold down 1.20; silver up 2 cents; and PL down 15.60....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:56
nomercy New era? Reality check>(New era? Reality check): - 1.Stocks, PE ratios and dividends yield are at all time high.
2.Margin Debt at all time high.
3.Inflow of funds, is slowing, as the vacuum cleaner has sucked it all in. Foreign funds will slow due to currency devaluations and higher risks.
4.US DEBT at all time high
5.US Consumer Debt at all time high
6.US trade balance deficit growing with China & Japan
7.Earning growth slowing, as it was fuelled partially by restructuring and lower interest costs, when compared to previous periods.
8.Technologies companies need to reinvest in cap. Ex. = increase borrowings.
9.US exports slowing to high US $
10. Europe and Asia's inflation aiming higher
11.US skilled labour wages aiming higher due to shortage
12.EMU uncertain & weak at best. Unemployment in Germany and France at historic high or close to it.
13. Asean economies in shambles. Debt defaults increasing.
14. China factor. Trade balance and major holder of US Treasury bonds. Becoming troublesome to deal with, as it is becoming increasingly more powerful re Hong Kong annexiation ei ) Military, Taiwan,
15. South America economies fragile. Lookout if currency devaluations spillover in that region.
16. El Nino could be catastrophic in some regions, if levels of 1982-83 occurs.
17. Clinton attacked 3 prongs. The weaker ( Campaign Contributions ) has him as he has broken the law by using the White House. Paula Jones & Co. could be fastidious. Whitewater still not over.
18. Low Interest rates, which is a PREREQUISITE FOR THE NEW ERA is difficult as Treasury Bonds require to be rolled over and not going to be bought by foreigners at low rates.
19. Unexpected domino's.
20. GO GOLD! - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:55
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Sorry for double emphasis George. My internet connection failed just as i hit submit, and when I turned back on it must of resubmitted on its own. Gold/Silver in constant 1974 dollars, anyone?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:55
D.A. cutting.and.pasting>(cutting.and.pasting): - All:
Cutting and pasting is hazardous to composition. That Malaysian paragraph somehow crept down to the bottom. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:50
D.A. events.of.the.day>(events.of.the.day): -
All:
The economic clock is begining to run much faster and governmental action is becoming more clear. Today's news is highly illustrative of the trend. First, while not yet definitive it appears that someone may have an inside track on the bank of Englands rate meeting. The pound is getting pounded and has fallen 4 pfennigs against the DM and better than 2.5 cents againts $US. The bet is that the BOE will not raise rates because the strong currency is hurting their export oriented manufacturers.
The Germans on the other hand are quite content to sit with their rates at 3% as evidenced by a large injection of liquidity into the banking system. With unemployment still rising in Germany the political cover for inaction on the rate front is strongly in place. It is interesting to note that a lot of the focus in Germany is on unemployment, even at the central bank level. What is interesting about this is that central banks are supposed to set monetary policy based upon forward looking data because monetary policy acts with such a long lag time. Employment figures are lagging indicators of economic health. Nothing like navigating by looking at the rearview mirror.
As Donald has been so kind to point out we have a new law in Japan which allows for perpetual bonds. Look for more laws like this in the near future. Also look for governments strapped by high debt to convert their paper into perpetual bonds. This will be part of the workout. It is unlikely that participation in these conversions will be voluntary for the bond holders.
All of this activity points to the same thing. The deflationists are right in that debts defaults are occuring. The remedy however is clear. When in doubt create more money. The money engine will run hotter and hotter until every place with a debt problem has it papered over.
Inflation is defined as excess paper compared to goods and services. The excesses are mounting at a torrid pace.
In Malaysia we have a call for Bank Negara to reduce short term rates. At the same time there will be some stupid attempt not to let speculators sell the currency short, by banning loans which are not related to trade or commerce. When will they learn. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:50
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - George Cole - Re Your 6:49. This is exactly why I believe that RJ's $275 is not going to happen. I find it amazing that we've even come this low in the year 1997! If the second shoe does drop it must prove to be one of the greatest buying ops of the 90's! Can anybody give us the current gold ( and/or silver ) price translated into constant 1974 dollars?!!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:48
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - George Cole - Re Your 6:49. This is exactly why I believe that RJ's $275 is not going to happen. I find it amazing that we've even come this low in the year 1997! If the second shoe does drop it must prove to be one of the greatest buying ops of the 90's! Can anybody give us the current gold ( and/or silver ) price translated into constant 1974 dollars?!!!!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:44
Ted @David>(@David): - To David ( formerly Prince....um....um...I mean FRONT ) ...Here it is again!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:41
Ted @Mooney>(@Mooney): - Mooney: Mornin!...Great Churchill quote....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:40
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Response from RP.
I have utmost respect for Jim and Lord Bill, but the two views you describe are not
reconcilable. Deflation occurs in a particular purchasing medium. If the dollar
deflates, it will go up in value generally against everything. If gold is to be an
exception, then there has to be a VERY good reason for it. There may well be.
But if you think a dollar deflation is coming and you are correct, you WILL do well
by holding safe dollars. You MIGHT do far worse or far better holding gold. Now
you are speculating twice. --RP - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - From the Elliott Wave website. The RP response will be my next post.
August 4, 1997
Mr. Prechter: In your book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, you forecast a
severe deflationary period ahead with declining gold prices below $200 per
ounce. This was expanded upon in Peter Rehmer's July 11, 1997 Special
Report entitled Gold Speaks: `Deflation!'
In the July 1997 issue of Strategic Investment, James Davidson said, Gold
has been the ultimate source of liquidity in the world since the days when
Croesus was King of Lydia. Deflation is a consequence of a liquidity
draught. Gold, itself, therefore, does not necessarily suffer in deflations the
way other commodities do. As Lord Rees-Mogg and [Mr. Davidson]
document in The Great Reckoning, the price of gold has tended to rise in
deflations. Disinflation, or falling rates of inflation, do not trigger a
significant demand for gold. But deflation will. The more severe it is, the
greater the value gold will command.
In At the Crest, you also said, The coming contraction in credit will cause
a rise in the value of all dollars that are not destroyed in the process. When
a corporation's junk bonds are declared worthless, when a government's
bonds drop in value, when a stock portfolio falls, when real estate becomes
illiquid, dollar-based purchasing power is rapidly removed from the system.
The demand for dollars will increase, as debtors facing insolvency will sell
anything and everything, even strong assets, at fire sale prices to raise
cash to keep from going bankrupt.
How do you reconcile these two views? I will pose the same question to
Mr. Davidson at his site http://www.strategicinvestment.com --G. Wallace - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:36
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Good Morning All!
I don't know if this has been mentioned here or on Kitco 2 but sad news was relayed to me yesterday by Kitco participant and fellow Flag shareholder Ali. The wife of Mr. Murdo Mcleod, president of Flag Resources passed away on Monday Aug. 4. I know I speak for all here and especially all Flag shareholders who have come to know of the man when I express our deepest condolences to Mr. McLeod and his family for their loss. In honour of Mrs. McLeod I post the following:
We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give.
-----Winston Churchill
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:12
Ted @David>(@David): - Here you are David!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 08:09
Ted @Tort>(@Tort): - Re-joke: How true!...The mailman must be on a donut break or Willy chased em off as no mail...yet!....Things move slow here in Jamaica North...S+P futures down .15...yawn.....fog still thick but sun through the weekend is on the way....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 07:56
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - Got your incoming Ted and responded in kind. It looks like another sour day in gold and silver explaining once again why the human breast is so durable; so that we can beat upon it at times like this and howl at the moon. Ted, you may wonder why excrement occurs. Well, here is the straight scoop.
THE PLAN
In the Beginning was the plan.
And then came the assumptions.
And the assumptions were without form.
And the plan was completely without substance.
And the darkness was upon the face of the workers. And they spoke
among themselves saying: It is a crock of sh_t, and it stinketh.
And the workers went unto their supervisors, and sayeth:
It is a pail of dung, and none can abide the odor thereof.
And the supervisors went unto their managers and sayeth unto them,
It is a container of excrement, and it is very strong,
such that none can abide it.
And the managers went unto the directors and sayeth, It is a
vessel of fertilizer, and none can abide its strength, And the
directors spoke amongst themselves, saying one to another: It
contains that which aids plant growth, and is very strong.
And the directors went unto the vice presidents and sayeth to them,
It promotes growth, and is very powerful.
And the vice presidents went unto the president, and sayeth unto him,
This new plan will actively promote growth and efficiency of this
company, and certain areas in particular.
And the president looked upon the plan, and saw that it was good.
And the plan became policy.
And this is how sh_t happens. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 07:47
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - MOONEY, your comments appreciated. Thanks!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 07:41
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - NINER, thanks for your comment. thank you too AURIC . I believe if gold drops out of bed the equities don't have 4 legs to stand on. Defaltion will kill stocks if it buries gold. One or the other has to move. Gold up and equities can still run, but knock the wind out of gold totallly and equities will collapse or gold will have to rise very quickly.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 07:25
general Gunrunner, check your email (Gunrunnr@bsc.net)>(Gunrunner, check your email (Gunrunnr@bsc.net)): - Buy International Pursuit, Java Gold, and North American
Palladium . - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 07:02
Ted @Mooney>(@Mooney): - Mooney ( 22:55 ) One of these days I'll get off my near miss to ya...Good mornin George!....EBN Gold down 2.0 .....could we be going down to test 300?...Markets love those ROUND numbers...eh...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:49
Georg Cole correction>(correction): - The poce of gold in constant 1990 dollars is closer to $200 than $150. But the point remains the same -- the drop in constant dollars has been enormous.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:49
Ted @Dollar>(@Dollar): - D.A. ( 23:06 ) Thanks for the post!...The dollar continues to surge and is now @ 1.8898 versus Mark....Nikkei and Hang Seng were up...ditto Europe ( so far ) ....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:37
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Analysis of Asian Banking System by FRB, San Francisco Branch 8/1/97
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/97/08/01/y0004_y00_4.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:36
George Cole constant dollars>(constant dollars): - DA: Appreciate the info re: who is doing the buying and selling. With producers starting to cover hedges again, the shorts will indeed have a tough time pushing prices much lower for any sustained period.
The magnitude of the 18-year gold bear has been much greater than most realize. The yellow has dropped from $850 in 1980 to $319 currently. But the CPI has risen over 50% between 1980 and 1997. Consequently, the price of gold in constant 1980 dollars is around $150. $850 to $150. Something for those expecting further big declines to think about.
Gold and stock action continue to mirror each other very closely. Anyone who is long-term bearish on gold has got to be long-term bullish on stocks and visa versa. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:27
Ted @WSJ>(@WSJ): - Am off ta read the WSJ.....WAKE UP TORT!...and give us a good one...
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:26
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japan says rapid FOREX moves are undesireable.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/06/z0009_29.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:24
Ted @JIN>(@JIN): - Good afternoon JIN!...We are getting OUR wish.....Happy trading!
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:21
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald! It's supposed to clear later in the day here...Am out of touch with my X lawyer brother in Bangkok and since he's been investing his and others money on the SET,I doubt he had much money to lose in the bank....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hello Ted: Going to be sunny in a few minutes, 60F now. Can you spare a couple of bucks for your brother in Thailand? His bank may be closed. Something about a run?
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Malaysian Prime Minister asks banks to lower interest rates.
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/06zpms.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 06:04
Ted @fog>(@fog): - Mornin everyone!...Well,we came back a little overnight as EBN gold is now only down 1.40 and silver is @ unch....
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 05:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Markets
Caught Off
Guard as
BOT
Suspends 42
Firms
Business Day
Welcomes your opinions or
suggestions.
THE Bank of Thailand's ( BOT )
decision to suspend the
operations of 42 ailing finance
and securities companies in
addition to the 16 that were
suspended last month caught the
markets by surprise yesterday,
with stocks taking a nosedive
and the baht softening.
The announcement resulted in
hectic sales on the stock market
as it added to worries over the
already troubled finance sector,
prompting the Stock Exchange
of Thailand ( SET ) to halt trading
in the banking and finance
sectors for a brief period.
The benchmark composite SET
Index shed 15.35 points, or
2.31 percent, to close at 648.47
points on 6.653 billion baht
turnover.
While the finance sector closed
down 5.78 percent, the banking
sector lost 2.49 percent.
The SET-50 Index slipped 1.29
points to 49.14.
The baht, meanwhile, fell to
31.70/32.00 to the dollar near
the close in the domestic market
compared with 31.20/31.40
baht in early trade.
In the offshore market the local
unit was traded at 31.25/31.45
to the dollar late, unchanged
from early morning trade.
The one-month baht/dollar swap
premium was at 12/16 satangs
per dollar in the domestic
market and 10/20 satangs in the
offshore market.
The overnight Interbank rate fell
to 9-11 percent in late trade
from 13-14 percent in the
morning on an expected rise in
banking liquidity following the
suspension of 42 more finance
companies.
Of the 42 finance firms whose
operations were suspended
yesterday, 17 are listed on the
SET.
Following the central bank's
announcement, the SET
authorities posted an SP sign
against these troubled
companies. They will continue to
remain suspended until their
rehabilitation plans are approved
by the special committee on
merger of finance firms.
These 17 listed companies are:
Thai Financial Syndicate ( TFS ) ,
Nithipat Capital, Bangkok
Investment, Thai Thanakorn
Finance ( TTF ) , Thaimex
Finance and Securities ( TMF ) ,
Siam City Credit Finance and
Securities ( SCCF ) , SCF
Finance and Securities ( SCF ) ,
Multi Credit Corporation of
Thailand ( MCC ) , Poonpipat
Finance and Securities, Ekkapat
Finance and Securities, Sri
Dhana Finance ( SDF ) , Cathay
Finance and Securities, Krung
Thai Finance and Securities,
Wall Street Finance and
Securities ( WALL ) , Pacific
Finance and Securities
( PACIFIC ) , Kiatnakin Finance
and Securities ( KK ) , and
SITCA Investment and
Securities ( SITCA ) . .
Commenting on the central
bank's announcement, an analyst
at Ekachart Finance and
Securities said: Although it
could make investors jittery in
the short-term, resulting in a run
on deposits, it is a step in the
right direction.
It could even frighten
depositors who have deposited
their money with finance firms
which continue to operate and
could result in their switching
deposits to bigger banks, he
add ded.
Asia Securities Trading ( AST )
analyst Chai Jirasevenuprapun
noted that investors did not
react much yesterday because
they were already aware of the
problems plaguing the finance
sector.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 05:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Thailand Moves to Stem Deposit Run, Offers Guarantees
Thailand's top financial officials appealed on national television for the public to stop a run on
eposits they said threatened to topple the country's financial system. ``People have to be
confident,'' said Bank of Thailand Governor Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi. ``Don't panic. Don't
withdraw.'' The government guaranteed deposits in banks and finance companies, in an effort to
shore up confidence a day after it shut almost half the country's non-bank lenders. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 05:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japan changes law to permit perpetual bonds. These issues are expected to be popular with life insurers.
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/index.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 05:14
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Ford to cut Taurus prices 7.8% in Japan.
( Stocks up 178, No reference to the insurance problem that I can find. The earlier report came from Financial Times in London )
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/autoset.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 04:42
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To All
Some info on RSA that may be of interest.
1. Platinum/palladium ratio. Generally the ore from
RSA yields PGM in the ratio of 4:1 platinum to Palladium.
Russian ore and US ore ( what there is of it ) yields
4:1 palladium to platinum. Since platinum is generally
higher value than palladium, at the same grade level,
RSA ore is more valuable
2. some production and cost data folows on Rusplat,
leplat and pp-rust in format tons milled, grade ( gm/ton )
cost ( R/ton ) and platinum production.
Rusplat,16.75Mtons,5.3gm/ton,200 R/ton, 1.506 Moz.
pp-rust, 3.25 Mtons,4.3 gm/ton,159r/ton,0.158 Moz
lebowa , 0.93 Mtons,5.0 gm/ton,256 R/ton,.085 Moz.
Thus I make the cost in $/oz for the above mines to
be Rusplat $260/oz, pp-rust 255$/oz, and leplat $350
per oz.
3. News of Noble Max the Gorilla of the Joberg Zoo.
You will recall the citizens arrest made by
Max a few weeks ago. Turns out the man he nailed
is also wanted in other cases including armed
robbery and rape. There is a strong rumour Max will
be brought in to head the Brixton robbery unit.
4 Cosatu strike action. As you make recall, cosatu
had planned to bring the country to its knees via
a rolling action campaign of strikes. Well the
campaign was scaled back to a one hour work stoppage
on Monday last. Management did not notice anything
happening as event coincided with tea break.
Cosatu seems to be losing its grip at a rapid rate.
Rumour next rolling action will be 5 seconds of
sticking your tongue out at your boss
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 03:59
Auric @ Good Night!>(@ Good Night!): -
goldfinger @ 00:12-- I remember the Crash of '87. We will have some disruption similar to that in the near future. We are overdue, IMHO. Good Luck! - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 03:27
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For DJ -
Wow thanks a lot for clearing me up. I was confused.
And I had missed the earlier post on the international
platinum guild - who I never heard of. They sound sort
of medieval. Perhaps they came to the meeting from a past
life via a time warp. Were they dressed in funny clothes
Anyway, maybe Japan is taking all the platinum in RSA
from GM and Johnson M at low set prices - anything is
possible. Particularly with time warp people.
But I think the chance of that being true is less than
0.0000001%.
Moreover plat stocks here are not acting that way.
Place to be was lebowa which I had ( price 2.7 to 3.5 ) -
sold ( 4.5 ) - bought back ( 4.5 ) . Now 4.95.
Also northam which I bought around 2-2.2 and now 3.
Now buying impala because its so cheap.
This not hero genius story as these gains do not
offset my losses in RSA golds by long shot. But they
help.
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 02:58
Who Cares? Japan has no effect?!>(Japan has no effect?!): - That Japanese life insurance story is the worst news I have posted since I found the Kitco site. How can this kind of news possibly be ignored by the gold market? The stock market?
If bad news really existed, the television would
have told us so. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 02:58
Kipling @>(@): -
Half a league, half a league, half a league onward, Into the Valley of Death rode the six hundred. Cannons to the right of them ( BOOM! ) Cannons to the left of them ( BOOM! ) Volley'd and thundered! Into the jaws of death rode the $600. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 02:32
Marian @ Whoops!>(@ Whoops!): -
Try this for Canada's Constitution: http://www.canoe.ca/InDepthUnity/const_1982.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 02:29
Who Cares? Miro - 400%>(Miro - 400%): -
Well, that's 400% rise in REAL money, not this crap money
that's being printed. I'd say the real increase is similar. : )
Japan is *finally* flaming on. God, that's great. : ) 10,000
Korean bankruptcies. Man, oh, man, the whole REGION is about
flame big.
I don't think Sam can fix *this* one. How much lower can
he drive short-term rates? 2%? It's obviously futile, since
virtually 0% rates didn't buy the Japanese buy three or four
years. Not even one presidential cycle. : )
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 02:27
Marian @The Library >(@The Library ): -
Here is a copy of the Canadian Constitution: http://www.canoe.ca/InDepthUnity?const_1982.html - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 01:41
Senator Blutarsky Retired Senate Judiciary Chairman>(Retired Senate Judiciary Chairman): -
6 Pak: I agree with your point about Canada ceding National Sovereignty to a Trade Treaty. My guess is that such a Treaty is contrary to the letter and spirit of Canadian Constitutional Law. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 01:16
6pak Selby @ 23:24>(Selby @ 23:24): - Selby I was going to give a great explanation, but hell, reality
suggests, the vast majority of Canadians, surely do not give a damn.
Soooo, it is Free Trade agreements, that will keep the dollar down, and
the interest rates up, and the standard of living down, and the unemploy-
ment up, and immigration up,and that will be just a normal happening.
Wages down, part time work up, social benefit cuts will be up, etc,etc,
Continued manufacturing shut downs, and wage cuts, blue & white jobs.
The raw resources of Canada are required at a discount, by USofA.
The free trade agreements require canadian dollar, no more then
.80 Cents. via, back room deals, etc. etc.
MAI ( Multilateral Agreement on Investment ) is next to happen, example:
No sovereign government ( for next 15 years ) would have the right to
give any regulatory advantage to the firm that are based in that
governments' own country
Remember the promise by liberals to do away with free trade, they are
involved with the MAI agreement, negotiating queitly, less said, is best.
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation, is the suggested future. O Yea ! - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 00:55
Senator Blutarsky Senate Intelligence>(Senate Intelligence): -
I got it! We've been debating INflation vs. DEflation. I am here to tell you, what we have now is INDEflation. Sort of like stagflation, only worse. Trust me! :- ) - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 00:46
Niner It's Happening . . .>(It's Happening . . .): - goldfinger; While $250 seems a tad on the low side, I don't discount the markets ability to drive gold prices lower still. A drop to the sub-300 level would actually be beneficial for us bugs, producing a more volatile upside for the eventual reversal. I also don't agree with your statement that ( i.e. equity ) markets would have to be in trouble for gold to fall below 300.
I'm hoping we'll be testing the 300 support soon, rather than languishing for a few years bouncing between 315-340, the dreaded alternative action. Every day the negativism here ( on the Kitco forum ) grows stronger, as evidenced by a gold investor ( bug ) here referring to gold as crap a day or two ago. But there is room for further growth of bearish sentiment, and I don't see a huge reversal til a few more bulls have been shaken out. It seems the natural course of things, especially since we're working on an 18 year downtrend . . .
We're approaching the next test at 313-314 levels, I'll watch for a penetration to 300, then resume a careful watch for what might prove to be a true bottom at . . . perhaps 280
Until the trend changes, we're simply observers.
Best Regards, Niner
- Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 00:44
Oz The Great And Powerful>(The Great And Powerful): -
Dollars and D-Marks and Yen, oh my! What would you advise I do with my Aussie Gold Stocks, eh? - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 00:30
Auric @ Bart's Bar & Grill>(@ Bart's Bar & Grill): -
Goldfinger @ 00:12-- Thanks. I think you will agree that big economic upheavals are underway. The question is how well will the damage be contained? My guess is that events are starting to get out of hand. It is going to take a sh**load of Dollars, D-Marks, and Yen to get us out of this looming deflationary spiral. - Date: Wed Aug 06 1997 00:12
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Auric, They will lead all paper down, but not to it's death. The sell off will look like 87 where bonds trade 70 to par value. Things will slosh around for a while, but the U.S. will have a new international problem that will lead us into more debt. Balancing the books into the future right now means squat, but it's a good start. 2002 will lead us down the road another 10 years before it becomes reality. By then we would have seen gold, stocks etc. come and go.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:57
C.V. Compton Shaw cvshaw@prodigy.net>(cvshaw@prodigy.net): - Gold and the XAU were at the top of their Bollinger bands and were stochiastically a little over bought today; however, gold is now near the lower end of it's Bollinger Band and, as a result, it is highly unlikely that the current short term rally and upward trend in gold and the XAU is over. Thus, in my opinion, the short term trend for gold and the XAU is still up. For the very long ( monthly ) term, the CCI for gold is at it's extreme lower end with the result that the long term trend for gold will soon turn up, although it still remains in a long term down trend.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:51
6pak Quotes @ Contribution>(Quotes @ Contribution): - Take care to sell your horse before he dies
The art of life is passing losses on.
Robert Frost
Politicians have continued to pretend that all was well long after events
provided impressive evidence to the contrary. It is described as:
.............SUSTAINING THE MORALE OF THE PEOPLE..............
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:50
Jack Japanese Insurance Companies>(Japanese Insurance Companies): -
Sometime ago I heard that Japanese Insurers were given government approval to invest up to 5% of their premiums in gold. Maybe, I misunderstood?
I quess when a policy is cancelled, prior premiums may remain with the insurer, as per contracted? If the insured do get their invested money promptly, I hope that they consider gold investments.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:44
Auric @ Operation Grand Slam>(@ Operation Grand Slam): -
Goldfinger @ 23:24-- I couldn't agree more! What about Bonds, US Bonds? Do you expect them to talk or do you expect them to die? - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:41
REB na>(na): - First Albania, now Japan?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:24
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - 6pak: I thought the idea was that there will be no new bond issues starting either in '98 or '99 as the deficit is eliminated. Therefore, there will not be any new Canada bonds to buy. What does the Gov need the domestic buyers to buy I wonder. The article didn't say I don't think. Without a deficit to service the dollar should go up, No? No bonds issued and a falling dollar looks like a great deal for the exporters and tax payers --not for the Lexus or Sony buyers maybe.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:24
goldfinger closing statement>(closing statement): - As i see it. Gold does'nt need a reason to go up. Thats why you have buying opportunities. This is one of them. Negitive press I like it. When everyone has sold their hoard the real money is made when all thats left is buyers. The selling is almost exhausted and now the goldbug waits patiently after all these years. Most all goldbugs have already given in. Their's not many of us left. UNITED WE STAND
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:11
KGB #121 Better he stayz home>(Better he stayz home): -
KGB: ( 18:18 ) Smart Wodka salzman staize home trinkz goot wodka and vferment 100 kilo potato for mak bad Wodka to szell to vife lovfer; den mak hiz own butter vit sexzy girlfriend. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:09
6pak Interest Rate Rise @ Canada, via,(Foreigners')>(Interest Rate Rise @ Canada, via,(Foreigners')): - http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Canada-Debt.html
Interest rates go up....Housing sales go down.eh!
Said: CIBC Wood Gundy Economists Avery Shenfeld & Don Mikolich
Unless Canadian investors replace *FOREIGN* investors *Bailing* out of
Canadian Securities, the dollar will be under *strain* to hold its value
With *FOREIGNERS* increasingly selling our dollar as they convert
proceeds from maturing Canadian Bonds into *THEIR OWN CURRENCIES*, any
substantial Canadian dollar strengthing would prove difficult in the
coming year
Made in Canada, by, Bank of Canada you say, what a pity, eh!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:07
DJ Wild white action>(Wild white action): - Check out Bart's new PL and PA charts!! PA down $20 in Asian markets then recovered $13 of this. PL down $20 also, but only recovered $5. Great to be able to see this! Thanks again Bart.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:07
Mooney @Tommorrows.gonna.be.another.Day!>(@Tommorrows.gonna.be.another.Day!): - Goodnight Ted, George, Panda, goldfinger, and ALL.
Oh yeah. Goodnight RJ and Glenn, wherever you might be! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:06
Lan Man @Closing Bell>(@Closing Bell): - COMEX gold and silver futures ended sharply lower Tuesday, but
platinum group metals ( PGM ) futures held up well with new contract
highs in platinum and palladium ended up by the daily limit for the
third straight day.
We think gold is going lower, Chicago Corp's COMEX floor trader
Carlos Perez-Santalla said. U.S. gold mining companies have
cheaper leaching processes now at less than $200 an ounce which
give them a lot more money in their forward sales and we expect a
lot more of them.
The health of the equity and bond markets, the lack of any visible
inflation, and the strength of the dollar - you name it, there
isn't anything that points higher for gold, he said.
The U.S. dollar climbed to new seven year highs against the
deutschmark Tuesday and new seven year highs on its trade weighted
index.
COMEX silver was even weaker than gold. I see no fundamental
justification for the recent rally in silver, and we failed at
resistance near the 40-day moving average today, and then the key
support around $4.40 failed also, Merrill Lynch's commodity
research director, Bill O'Neill said.
Earlier TOCOM palladium futures went limit up for the fifth
straight session in Tokyo overnight.
No further Russian shipments of platinum group metals ( PGMs ) are
expected in Japan under the annual supply contract until around
August 10, and offerings by Russia in the spot market are not
meeting pent up demand, traders said.
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 323.00 323.70 317.00 320.40 _3.50 414.50 314.60
Oct97 325.20 325.70 319.00 322.50 _3.50 426.50 316.80
Dec97 327.30 327.60 321.00 324.60 _3.50 456.50 318.50
Feb98 329.50 329.50 324.00 326.80 _3.60 424.00 322.50
Apr98 328.60 328.60 328.60 328.80 _3.60 408.40 325.00
Dec98 339.00 339.00 337.40 338.00 _3.70 506.80 334.50
Dec99 351.50 351.50 351.50 352.30 _4.00 506.00 351.00
Est. Sales 16156
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 448.00 449.50 429.00 431.50 _19.20 576.00 418.00
Dec97 454.00 456.50 436.00 437.80 _19.40 701.90 424.00
Mar98 464.00 464.00 444.00 444.00 _19.60 573.00 432.00
May98 467.50 467.50 447.50 448.00 _19.60 564.00 437.00
Dec98 482.30 472.00 466.00 462.40 _19.90 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 8468
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 227.60 227.60 220.00 227.60 +12.00 215.60 128.75
Dec97 219.60 219.60 211.50 219.60 +12.00 207.60 120.25
Est. Sales 666
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 461.50 463.70 439.50 449.60 _5.60 458.00 355.50
Jan98 454.00 454.00 433.00 439.60 _5.60 447.00 360.00
Est. Sales 3679
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:06
D.A. a.few.notes>(a.few.notes): - All:
The action tonight in the metals is so far fast and furious. The theme seems to be spec selling and commercial buying. First in the Palladium market, someone ( believed to be a spec seller ) came in and sold 6000 contracts on the Tocom. This is the equivalent of about 300000 ounces. A very large load ( ~ 8% of 1 years new mine production ) . The market which closed NY at around a 237 bid for spot sold all the way down to 220. At this point apparently some commercial users stepped to the plate. Last call on Pa was 233 spot. The net effect of this selling barrage has been to lower the price $4. The other interesting point is that there was virtually no covering by the public when Pa was limit down on the Tocom. This market remains extremely bizarre.
In the silver market there has been very good spec selling tonight to the tune of about 1MM ounces. While this is not a big number for London and NY it is for the far east where there are very few silver dealers. It looks as if someone is trying to make a point. This selling appears to have been bought again by commercials.
Finally in the gold market there has been spec selling from all over and like the other markets commercials are doing the buying. At around the 317-318 level there has been producer buying. It appears that at this level there are a fair number of folks who will buy in their hedges. One must also wonder whether this is a prelude to mine closure. At some point it pays just to take the money you have made hedging and close up shop for a while. For an example of this one need only look back at the corn markets last year. When corn hit the $5 level, the ethanol producers sold off their inventories and their hedges and just closed up shop. The shorts will need major cooperation from the central banks if they hope to push this baby much lower for any period of time.
Again today the dollar was a very large factor. Last I looked we were around 119 yen and 188 dm. The currency action is begining to take a toll in the European bond markets. Over the last week or so we have seen a backup in the 10 year rates of almost 40 basis points in the peripheral bonds. It may be that the currency devaluation game is drawing to a close as the bond market vigilantes are voting with their feet. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 23:03
Mooney @Panda.and.goldfinger>(@Panda.and.goldfinger): - Panda - Inflation on the way - no doubts ( Sorry Steve! ) .
goldfinger - Just to make sure you know what most others here already do; when you speak with me you are speaking with a biased person. I have been a full time real estate salesperson in Toronto, Canada for over 16 years now. I sure don't need no convincin' that land ( hopefully with some rental income ) is a fantastic long-term investment. Good as Gold! :- ) - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:55
Mooney @George.and.Ted>(@George.and.Ted): - George, Ted, - I left just after my post this aft. George, Thanks for update, I missed all weekend ( 3Dayer up here ) at the cottage. Still catching up. If second shoe drops could get as ugly as APH predicts, BUT it will be the mother of all buying opportunities! Ted - One day I'll relate how I almost did myself in, same as you, off of Key West on a Christmas Eve no less!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:50
Ted @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz): - EBN Gold down 2.15 and Silver down 4 cents...Good night ALL....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:48
Byron @ One Minute At A Time:>(@ One Minute At A Time:): - EB: Best I can do posting from a text only computer at the library is to go to http://www.quote.com Type in the symbol in the quote box and next click on the black down arrow. Various option include 1 and 5 minute charts, etc. Hope that helps.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:47
NJ Dec gold>(Dec gold): - EB : Go http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=gcz7&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:46
panda @>(@): - Mooney -- In tonights edition of The Nightly Business Report, Paul Kanga made reference to a feature that will be done on tomorrows program. It is about using real estate as a hedge against inflation.
Now, pardon me, but if everyone is so convinced that inflation is dead, why all the talk about hedging against it? Could it be, that reality of a strong Dollar is sinking in? What happens when the Dollar weakens - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:42
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Mooney, let's face it nobody could jungle assets that quick and if you could you would end up being wrong. I personally think real estate is a great investment and should held for the next 3 years anyway until the top nears. There again depends if the properties have already gone way up in value recently. Of coarse location is extremely important and if the potential is there for further gains.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:38
John N. Retiarivs. Sic transit gloria Nipponensis.>(Retiarivs. Sic transit gloria Nipponensis.): -
Will that Nissan Insurance item prove to be a whiff of grape shot for the populace of Japan? If so, we need one such among the charging, frenzied bulls here in North American in the worst way.
Let's see if there is any real press coverage here about how reality has arrived in Japan.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:29
Steve harvester@parod.com>(harvester@parod.com): - Glenn re:18:03; What better way than that to protect the eventual purchase of 2000 contracts of silver outright. This month will probably witness a bullish monthly key reversal when the buying begins at new lows after panic sales.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:29
Mooney @goldfinger>(@goldfinger): - Thanks goldfinger. I agree and predicted here about a year ago ( when asked by aurophile ) that real estate had gone through a deflation in the early 90's and was now set to soar with inflation in the hard assets over the next few years ( 3-10 at least ) . I was half joking about selling, but, at the same time, I believe that when gold and silver take off the profits ( percentage-wise ) will be enormous and it might not be a bad idea to sell property, quintuple the cash playing the metals, and then buy back more property as it will only just be starting upwards and have a long way to go. :- )
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:19
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Mooney, why would you sell your properties, as in real estate. I think this will spill over into real estate in a positive way. Gold will lead the way for hard assets up or down over a few years from now.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:19
Mooney @APH@21:26>(@APH@21:26): - ALL - With all the camraderie and banter, let's not lose sight of our purpose here, which, in case anyone has forgotten, is to increase our bulse ( package/purse of gold dust ) . When APH is kind enough to give warning ( such as 21:26 ) take careful notes.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:19
EB Can anyone post a 'minute' chart on GCZ7 today>(Can anyone post a 'minute' chart on GCZ7 today): - Pleeeze...or isn't there an URL?
awaway
eb - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:12
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - For those of you waiting for $250 gold it won't happen unless the stock market collapses to 2000 on the DOW. Either gold goes up or everything is going to pieces around us. A major financial casualty is just around the corner unless something straightens up.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:11
Mooney @goldfinger!>(@goldfinger!): - goldfinger - That is the dream that many here share, but is this imminent? I gotta know for sure with at least three months warning as that is about how long it takes to sell AND close out my properties.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 22:00
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - My prediction. Gold will explode off the low made on July 7th after testing that level in the near by contracts and then watch out shorts. The fireworks have just begun.79 will be history as gold melts up over the old high as the world finally recognizes gold after all has a place in the investment community.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:54
Byron @ Bouncing Off The Bottom:>(@ Bouncing Off The Bottom:): - JIN: only down $2.10. You must be buying!!! : ) ....Donald: That ain't Thunder Storms... Its the Financial Gods Rumbling. Distant thunder from Japan
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:46
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Get ready... get set.... go..... for gold while it's still around. The world around us is starting to get ugly, real ugly and we hav'nt seen nothing yet. The chickens are coming home to roost.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Shutting down until T-Storm passes. See you later.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:29
Auric @The Kitco Bar And Grill>(@The Kitco Bar And Grill): -
Good evening fellow Kitcoites. Well, we are at THREE-TWO-ZERO. I will shift more assets into the gold sector again tomorrow. If we do go to $600 to $800 Gold in the next 2 years, it makes sense to get in at this level, IMHO. Good luck and good fortune! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:27
Byron @ A Billion Here, A Billion There:>(@ A Billion Here, A Billion There:): - Donald: Hey, maybe IMF can also take over Japan also. ...lets see 42 percent of the face value of their pensions wiped out... This is getting interesting..
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:26
Donald @Home>(@Home): - That Japanese life insurance story is the worst news I have posted since I found the Kitco site. How can this kind of news possibly be ignored by the gold market? The stock market?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:26
APH ...............>(...............): - Gold made a low on July 7 at 314.6 basis the front month contract ( Aug. ) right off a Gann line drawn from the 1976 lows on a weekly chart. This week that line has moved up to 316. A weekly close below 316-314 would project down to 295 - 300.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:26
Ted @JIN>(@JIN): - Hi JIN!...Just got online and I see EBN Gold is down 3 dollars and silver is down 3 cents....Looks like we may be at 313 SOON....and maybe I'll get that buying opportunity I've been waiting for....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:25
Ron What's going on here?>(What's going on here?): - I've confirmed the sale on COMEX today of 3,570 Dec $340 gold calls at $230 each, and 700 Apr $340 calls at $560 each, by using Lind-Waldock Online ( see also http://router.minot.com/~bohl/#OPTION, but be patient, it's slow tonight ) . Isn't this kind of trade, obviously made by a BIG player, VERY, VERY bullish all by itself, since funds and producers are usually right about where the mkt is going? What am I missing?
Second, it looks like the fund Glenn told us about did manage to get 1,150 of those 2,000 silver puts. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - I think this is BIG BAD BEAR news folks. No more goldilocks economy.
Japan: Record fall in life sector
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6 1997
By Gillian Tett in Tokyo
Japan's 44 life assurance companies lost a record ¥3,361bn ( $28.4bn )
worth of business in May, as individual policyholders suddenly lost
confidence in the sector and started to cancel their policies.
The decline came after Nissan Mutual, a medium-sized life assurer,
collapsed with losses of more than ¥300bn in April - the first such failure in
Japan since the second world war.
The fall in business will fuel fears that Nissan Mutual's failure will have a
knock-on effect across Japan's huge life assurance sector.
These fears have been further exacerbated by new proposals to force
Nissan Mutual's policyholders to shoulder some ¥100bn worth of losses
by accepting lower benefits on their assurance policies.
This would be the first time the Japanese public had been forced to accept
a loss from a business failure.
Although Japan has seen a series of banking and other failures in recent
years, the public has hitherto been protected by government and industry
bail-out schemes.
Mr Andrew Smithers, an independent economist, said: The extent of the
losses suffered by policy holders could lead to a collapse in confidence in
other weak companies - and further bankruptcies.
The proposals to cut policyholders' guaranteed premiums emerged last
week, when the Japanese life insurance industry submitted a plan to
establish a new company, Aoba, to take over Nissan Mutual's
responsibilities.
Under the plan, the rest of the industry would contribute about ¥200bn to
cover the losses, while individual policy holders would contribute about
¥100bn by accepting a cut in the amount of money that will be paid on
their pension policies.
The degree to which policyholders would be affected varies significantly
between contracts.
The hardest-hit would be the holders of a pension policy designed for
women.
Japanese individuals who bought those policies in 1988 could see 42 per
cent of the face value of their pensions wiped out, according to calculations
by Mr Smithers.
Nissan Mutual has asked its 1.2m policyholders to vote on the plan before
the end of August. If more than 10 per cent reject it, the plan will collapse.
Some policyholders have formed a group to fight the scheme and are
threatening legal action against Nissan Mutual.
However, the life assurance industry has warned that if the plan collapses,
all pension money will be frozen.
Nissan Mutual has also implemented severe financial penalties for any
policyholders who try to withdraw their money.
Nevertheless, data from the Life Insurance Industry of Japan showed that
cancellations across the industry by individuals were 20 per cent higher in
May than a year earlier.
New business fell 10 per cent. Consequently, the total value of individual
policies dropped from ¥1,497,000bn to ¥1,494,000bn in the month.
This fall, the largest ever, is in sharp contrast to the pattern seen in recent
years, when the amount of money in the life assurance industry had been
on a sharply upward trend.
A spokesman for the sector said: This is a sign that individuals are shifting
money from the life assurance industry to other groups.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:18
Byron Beep.....Beep....Beep>(Beep.....Beep....Beep): - Schippi: Now you tell me.======^=======^============================. Suggest you don't look at JIN's 21:01 post also
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:06
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
Only for viewers with a STRONG heart! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:05
Scotty as if a new ruble wasn't enough>(as if a new ruble wasn't enough): - Even the once vaunted Russian military is just about down the tubes. This could bode ill for such a large gold producer.......
http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/news/05.html
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:01
Scotty New Russian Currency>(New Russian Currency): - I'm usually pretty good at snooping around the world press and seeing trends before they start. I just came across this article in Russia Today that looks like everyday news about the new ruble coming on board. There is much to be read into this article. Read about how a loaf of bread now costs 10,000 times more than it did a few years ago!
http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/news/04.html
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 21:01
JIN GOLD PRICE STILL SLIDE DOWN IN ASIA!>(GOLD PRICE STILL SLIDE DOWN IN ASIA!): - Ted and all,
SILL DOWN!317.65 PER OZ NOW!try this: http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCOMM.HTML-SSI
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:54
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Here's a cute quote from Russia Today:
Quoteworthy: We won't have to do so much math. -- A young Muscovite, commenting on the government's plan to redenominate the ruble. The new banknotes, to be introduced next year, will drop three zeros.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:49
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Without gold we fold. Get ready to break out the champagne all you goldbugs it's party time. Kiss paper goodbye and bring on the gold. Final count down near. Step off shorts the bugs coming through.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:47
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Hi everyone! I just gotta hit the lotto so I can quit my day job and hang out here all day. For you copper enthusiasts, here's an article from Hong Kong saying China is boosting copper production and the price will be falling over the next couple years.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jiangxi Copper lifts profit to $214m
By Patricia Kuo
CHINA'S largest copper cathode producer Jiangxi Copper posted an interim net profit of 230.11 million yuan ( HK$214.9 million ) on turnover of 1.48 billion yuan.
Earnings per share stood at 0.125 yuan.
The company recorded net profit of 211.8 million yuan last year, compared to 417 million yuan in 1995.
In June, the company said it had completed procedures to boost its capacity to 150,000 tonnes from 120,000 tonnes this year.
It produced 116,547 of copper cathode last year and its Guiye brand copper is the only Grade A copper produced in China registered with the London Metal Exchange.
Its Phase II project in Guixi, Jiangxi province, will be completed by 1999 and raise copper cathode production to 200,000 tonnes a year by 2000.
According to a research report from Tai Fook Securities, net profit of the company is expected to grow by 126 per cent to 479 million yuan this year due to increase in copper price to an average of US$1.17 ( HK$9.13 ) per pound this year, reduction of cash costs in copper production, stronger balance sheet and tax advantage.
However, copper price is expected to fall next year and in 1999 with looming over-supply problem.
The net profit is projected to grow by 13 per cent in 1998.
China
ChinaLocalFeaturesHK StocksExchange RateMutual FundsBusinessNews
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:34
DJ Bart charts>(Bart charts): - Bart - My thanks as well for the PL and PA charts. I couldn't find good spot prices anywhere. Only one last request. Would you please make the gold chart go up? A lot? I think it has a leak somewhere that needs to be fixed.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:28
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Hey, NOTAGOLDBUG. I can't see any reason for your postings. You may be on the wrong site! Sunscreen anyone!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:27
tanami @ christmas>(@ christmas): - the best just got better! the platinum and palladium charts are
great Bart.
Within a year micropayments on the web seem a possibility - 10 cent
or whatever debit when you visit a site.
Thanx Roebear and GVC for the info on the Xau, just have
to track down some info on P/e's and the Hui now. The Xau
looks pretty heavily hedged, hard to say without more research.
There must be some secret research reports floating around
on silver, maybe indicating indian supplies coming on to
the market? Will be released in due time no doubt when the researchers
attempt to induce their prophecies.
really regretting being out of the whites, but as I understand
it, the west may be short while the russians may be long,
starting to look very unpredictable despite an upward trend,
especially as the Russians are likely to be taking personal
futures positions, hard to lose if you can control the release
of the metal onto the markets. think things may get so chronic that
the strategic stockpiles will be severely tapped into. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Russian gold mining results for 1995 by region.
http://ns.fipc.ru/fipc/deposits/gold.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:10
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Alright, which one of you guys bought 3,450 Dec340 calls and 700 Apr340 calls today, hmmmm? http://router.minot.com/~bohl/history/option/Gold
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:06
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): -
Goldbugs need some cheering up and this will creat a smile..:D
This was Kurt Vonnegut's commencement address at MIT.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Ladies and gentlemen of the class of '97:
Wear sunscreen.
If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen
would be it. The long-term benefits of sunscreen have been
proved by scientists, whereas the rest of my advice has no
basis more reliable than my own meandering experience. I will
dispense this advice now.
Enjoy the power and beauty of your youth. Oh, never mind.
You will not understand the power and beauty of your youth
until they've faded. But trust me, in 20 years, you'll look
back at photos of yourself and recall in a way you can't grasp
now how much possibility lay before you and how fabulous you
really looked. You are not as fat as you imagine.
Don't worry about the future. Or worry, but know that worrying
is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing
bubble gum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that
never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4 pm
on some idle Tuesday.
Do one thing every day that scares you.
Sing.
Don't be reckless with other people's hearts. Don't put up with
people who are reckless with yours.
Floss..
Don't waste your time on jealousy. Sometimes you're ahead,
sometimes you're behind. The race is long and, in the end,
it's only with yourself.
Remember compliments you receive. Forget the insults. If you
succeed in doing this, tell me how.
Keep your old love letters. Throw away your old bank statements.
Stretch.
Don't feel guilty if you don't know what you want to do with
your life. The most interesting people I know didn't know at
22 what they wanted to do with their lives. Some of the most
interesting 40-year-olds I know still don't.
Get plenty of calcium. Be kind to your knees. You'll miss them
when they're gone.
Maybe you'll marry, maybe you won't. Maybe you'll have children,
maybe you won't. Maybe you'll divorce at 40, maybe you'll dance
the funky chicken on your 75th wedding anniversary. Whatever you
do, don't congratulate yourself too much, or berate yourself
either. Your choices are half chance. So are everybody else's.
Enjoy your body. Use it every way you can. Don't be afraid of
it or of what other people think of it. It's the greatest
instrument you'll ever own.
Dance, even if you have nowhere to do it but your living room.
Read the directions, even if you don't follow them.
Do not read beauty magazines. They will only make you feel ugly.
Get to know your parents. You never know when they'll be gone
for good. Be nice to your siblings. They're your best link to
your past and the people most likely to stick with you in the
future.
Understand that friends come and go, but with a precious few
you should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps in geography
and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need
the people who knew you when you were young.
Live in New York City once, but leave before it makes you hard.
Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you
soft. Travel.
Accept certain inalienable truths: Prices will rise. Politicians
will philander. You, too, will get old. And when you do, you'll
fantasize that when you were young, prices were reasonable,
politicians were noble, and children respected their elders.
Respect your elders.
Don't expect anyone else to support you. Maybe you have a trust
fund. Maybe you'll have a wealthy spouse. But you never know when
either one might run out.
Don't mess too much with your hair or by the time you're 40 it
will look 85.
Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who
supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way
of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting
over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it's worth.
But trust me on the sunscreen. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:06
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROEBEAR: This is typical of a bottom. I am still optomistic for the long haul, getting ready for the big run-up.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 20:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - IMF takes control of Thai economy.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970806/world/world1.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:59
jfkaj;f gasjgjg>(gasjgjg): - Glenn, who sold the fund those silver puts?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:58
Roebear @OUCH!>(@OUCH!): - Looks like everyone is too busylicking their wounds tonight to post, except for Donald. Nurse, more painkillers please and my plasma bottle is getting low! NURSE! Doggone cheap HMO's!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:52
Byron @ Not Broken Yet:>(@ Not Broken Yet:): - The 5 week uptrend line ( includes this week ) starting with the lst week of July for the XAU Index has NOT been broken. ( includes today's action ) .
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Prediction for 10,000 Korean business bankruptcies.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0806/m0806b06.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Deep discounts on Korean automobiles as bankruptcy looms.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0806/m0806b01.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:23
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean bad check rate hits 15 year high.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0806/m0806b09.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 19:08
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 25.47, 1966 all time high 28.61
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:52
DJ Confusion>(Confusion): - John Disney - First, re: RJ posting to RJ, this was me. I corrected this 2 posts later, but you must not have seen this.
I'm not sure you saw RJ's original post. He reported that during a meeting he had with the Platinum Guild International, they told him that most of the next 5-years platinum production from S. Africa was sold forward to the Japanese. He said the selling prices were not inflexible, but I interpreted his report to mean that these mines could not fully benefit from the higher pgm prices.
Your comments make sense to me, so perhaps I interpreted RJ's report incorrectly. In any case, I hope you are right, as I have already taken a position in RSA platinum, both Rusplats and Implats. Would very much appreciate any news you might have on a continuing basis, as it seems very hard to get anything directly from the companies, and there is next to nothing on the web.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:34
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - Gold is down. It's time to buy some Vista Gold Corp.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:25
Ron N. Korea Pledges to Honor 1953 Truce>(N. Korea Pledges to Honor 1953 Truce): - Stomach bone connected to brain bone: http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100i.htm
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:18
Lurker2 @>(@): -
Just wondering: Does Barry Switzer post here? Is he gunrunner? - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:18
KGB @ in hiding>(@ in hiding): - Ve haf in Russia Wodka salzman mak long trip. Think vife haf fren wisit ven is trip, but not sure. How find out? Vife veigh 100 kg, get sak potato vat iz 100 kg. Put sak on bed. On spring for bed tie string and vit bolt attach. Is put 1 kup kream under bed, put sak on bed, mak mark on string how far in kream dip ven sak on bed. Then go trip, sell wodka.
Two veek later is home. Is look under bed see how far is mark on string.
Know vat find? Is find 1 cup butter. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:11
D.A. a.thought>(a.thought): - Glenn:
Maybe they have the inside track on digital silverware. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 18:03
Glenn USA>(USA): - Just stating the facts and you interpret!!!
Around 12:00 ( Noon NY Time ) today a fund came in and bought 2000 July98 $3.50 silver puts for $0.05 each. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 17:46
Ron Tort, sorry, I just can't resist>(Tort, sorry, I just can't resist): - Your joke reminded me of this one:
It seems there was this jealous travelling salesman who had a very lovey
wife. He did not want her to be home alone, so he decided to buy her a
talking parrot to keep her company.
At the pet store there was only one parrot and the owner
would not sell the parrot because he had no legs.
How does he stay on the perch? asked the Travelling man.
He wraps his penis around it. said the pet shop owner.
Thats OK as long as he can talk. said the Salesman.
Oh, he talks very well. assured the owner.
Satisfied the salesman took the bird home to his wife and soon after
went on a sales trip. When he got home, he talked to the parrot and
asked him: How was it while I was away?
Everything was fine, until the man from
next door came over. said the parrot.
Oh, what happened? asked the salesman.
Well they had a dinner, and then sat down on the couch. said the
parrot.
What happened next? asked the salesman.
They moved in close together
Uh-huh?
Then he put his arm around her
Then?
He put his hand on her knee
Then?
He moved his hand under her dress
After that?
Well I don't know, said the parrot
because I fell off my perch,
hit my head and got knocked out.
------
General: Thanks. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 17:31
George Cole stock market>(stock market): - KORODY: It's not just the high tech stocks. Banks, brokerages. and energy service also have risen to truly absurd valuations. And energy service has managed to do this with flat oil prices.
When the rug is pulled out, the insiders as usual will have converted their stocks to cash and the eager mutual fund investors will be left holding the bag. That said, this move still seems to have further upside. This is especially true for small caps, which have lagged badly these past two years, but are now starting to play catch up.
Gold's day in the sun is getting close. And the higher stocks go today, the higher gold goes tomorrow. The mergers, consolidations, hedge reductions, and improved efficiencies this slump is forcing on the gold miners will benefit their shareholders tremendously when bear turns to bull.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 17:22
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for DJ
The RJ post on RSA hedging was confusing to me - was
it RJ talking to RJ Ive checked the implication that
the RSA mines are locked in at some low price with two
good local sources. I believe the implication is
incorect.
It rather sounds as if it came to some young trader
perhaps in a dream or maybe while he was dozing off in
the bath tub.
As I understand it, Implats sells a lot of pgm to GM
at the average of the prior few months spot prices ( maybe
six months maybe less ) - the rusplat group has no reason
to hedge - as best I can figure their costs are in the
order of 250$/oz ( with the exception of lebowa who are
higher cost but still dont hedge ) .
If they have done a deal with Japan - ( I find it strange
as I had assumed they normally market through Johnson-
Mathey ) - it would have been very recent and at a high price
with high annual escalations.
For info, northam plats has moved from 2 to 3 in the
last 3 weeks. Leplat went from 2.8 to a high of 5 in
the last 3 months. ( these are 2 high cost highly geared
mines ) .
Rusplat and pp-rust are up about 15 % .However, Implats
has hardly moved and I think it is the best play around
now in the pgm sector.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 17:00
korondy In_Colorado>(In_Colorado): - George S. COLE: I'd be interested in your take in the total lack of fear in the equity markets and the love affair with high tech stocks. I work for one of the world's largest computer companies. Most of the managers I speak with have been selling stock with both hands while their neighbors and gardeners have been buying it all up.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 16:26
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - KORODNY: I've said it to Mooney and I say it to you -- we are on the same wavelenght! The fact that bullion managed to regain almost half its worst loss supports your case.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 16:25
DJ To hedge or not to hedge?>(To hedge or not to hedge?): - RJ - Would appreciate your response to John Disney's earlier post. Need to reconcile his info re: S. Afica forward selling with yours.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 16:22
DJ I love parrots>(I love parrots): - Tort - The Parrot. Please file it, to be included in your book, The Best of Tort.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 16:07
Ted @fog>(@fog): - Thanks Tort...That was a good n......Tarnished:What the hell ya doin here? Will go check da mail!....XAU down 2.17
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:59
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - Spud Master - We agree.
General - Answers to your questions:
1 ) Yes, but not Class III ( ATF is enough of a pain with Class I )
2 ) When the hard core aren’t buying and you’re holding onto a LOT of expensive, depreciating metal ( !!!! )
3 ) Yes - way more than I need to ( !!!!! ) So many toys, so little money
I’ve been thinking of making a Class III purchase, so if I may ask: How much time is it taking, and what are the current Fed license fees? Did your local CLEO give you a hassle? You don’t have to answer open air; use my net name above... : )
.. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:58
general to ron>(to ron): - bowers board is WWW.SUBGUNS.COM
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:50
Byron @ Great Buying Opportunity:>(@ Great Buying Opportunity:): - According to the DBC quote: Dec Gold was up 3.60 from its low!!!! Is that correct?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:45
Byron @ I Survived:>(@ I Survived:): - Looks like their setting this up for a close on the low day for the XAU and HUI Indexes. 20 minutes to go. ...The library was invaded by about 100 youngsters and their parents followed by a 6 foot 300 lb Clo the Cow. ( young children's program ) . I fled back to the house and the telebroker option. All is clear now. What I have to do for the cause!! : )
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:33
Miro electricity crash>(electricity crash): - Who cares: your comment about Over 400% in ten years. That's got to be
on a par with today's high-tech stocks. Not even close! Just in the last
year ( ONE year ) Dell 700% Intel 400% IBM, Compaq, Netscape, AOL all of
them 300+%.
400% in ten years is nothing spectacular in this high-tech bull craziness
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:14
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - General: Found the Vollmer's site. But what's the url for Bower's? I'll trade 'ya: http://www.gunindex.com/ixmanufacturers.htm and http://www.gunindex.com/ixdealers.htm.
------
On a poster brought by Dr. Tom Berger to the Gunsite Reunion, we read the following:
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to hide the bodies of those people I had to kill because they pissed me off.
------
In the same vein, I once saw a bumpersticker that read:
The more people I meet, the more bullets I need.
------
A cooling-off period for handgun purchases requires a number of unlikely assumptions in order to work. First, the potential murderer - denied a
handgun immediately - must then decide not to buy a rifle or a shotgun, which the Brady Bill will allow him to do. Then he must not know how to buy
a handgun on the black market, or how to obtain one from friends, relatives or acquaintances. In addition, the type of murder he intends must not be
one for which readily available alternative weapons, such as knives, automobiles, or bare hands, will work. Finally, the person who was literally ready
to commit a murder on Day One of the waiting period must calm down by Day Seven and stay calm from that day forward.
David B. Kopel, in Policy Review
------ - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:06
Tortfeasor Bonus joke for Ted>(Bonus joke for Ted): - Ted, I know you need the following joke. I hope this will satisfy your craving for forgetfulness from this raw and uncaring market.
On reaching his plane seat a man is surprised to see a parrot
strapped in next to him. He asks the stewardess for a coffee where
upon the parrot squawks and get me a whiskey you cow The
stewardess, flustered, brings back a whiskey for the parrot and
forgets the coffee.
When this omission is pointed out to her the parrot drains its glass
and bawls and get me another whiskey you bitch Quite upset, the girl
comes back shaking with another whiskey but still no coffee.
Unaccustomed to such slackness the man tries the parrot's approach
I've asked you twice for a coffee, go and get it now or I'll give you
a slap.
Next moment both he and the parrot have been wrenched up and thrown
out of the emergency exit by two burly stewards. Plunging downwards
the parrot turns to him and says
for someone who can't fly you're a cheeky bastard
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:04
tarnished @dinghy dining>(@dinghy dining): - TED: Ding Ding......check it out yer box!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 15:00
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Seems strange that only coffee and palladium are up today and everything else except the Charmin investments ( please don't squeeze the Charmin Mr. Whipple ) is dismally down. One wonders if one can't get the coffee jitters without even drinking it simply by watching the gold and silver graphs.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:50
George Cole market action>(market action): - Mooney: In yesterday's post to Ark I argued that the failure of bullion to follow the whites higher probably was signalling a new falloff. Another warning sign was the very low volume in the gold stocks. So today's drop didn't really surprise me, although I had hoped I was wrong.
On the brighter side, the gold stocks have held up pretty well considering bullion's plunge and Korondy is getting bullish.
The much stronger action by the secondary stocks signals that the final stock blowoff has begun. Russell 2000 could go MUCH higher these next few weeks. But the end is not far off. And I am sticking to my forecast that stocks will peak and gold will turn this month.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:45
2 Dear Kitco>(Dear Kitco): - Please run the 24-hour chart upside down today.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:38
Spud Master ...the best lack all conviction, the worst are full of passionate intensity...>(...the best lack all conviction, the worst are full of passionate intensity...): - gunrunner: Don't get me wrong, I'm no cardial loss-of-containment liberal, unions may once have served a necessary role, but today I see them as merely an extension of the corporate cabal; example - Union management personnel making more money than their contributing members - that's insane too. I do feel, however, that corporate CEO's ARE the biggest impediment these days - in Japan there used to be a 5 to 1 range between lowest paid worker and highest paid CEO. Management certainly has a valid role in our work force, but that role is relatively unimportant - I'd pay them no more than an engineer - and likely much, much less. As I said, if a CEO was inventing warp drive every day, he'd be worth a multi-million dollar salary. But the bulk of them are just worthless drains on a corporation. Take the CEO multimillion dollar salaries and reinvest it in the company!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:29
Ted @fog>(@fog): - Casino stocks are soarin today.....must have cashed in their gold+silver chips ta buy stox....Hi Mooney!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:27
general to GUNRUNNER>(to GUNRUNNER): - gunny, I agree that now may be the time to shift emphasis to
guns while gold is forming its bottom. I recently ordered a
non-Colt M16 shorty, my first class III purchase. Are you a
dealer? With gold and guns ( and maybe some girls! ) , how can
you go wrong? Do you browse the Vollmer or Bowers sites? - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:21
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Thanks for the improvements at the graph site!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:18
Ted @PL>(@PL): - PL went from up 4.80 @ 11AM to down 12.20 @ 3PM.....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:18
LSteve @a plan>(@a plan): - Hey Guys,
Was talking to my cousin and was telling him about my theories on the market. Well he added an interesting bit of information I was unaware of. Apparently come the first of the year homeowners in Texas will be able to take out home equity loans. This apparently was not allowed before. My cousin says they are predicting $6 billion in loans. He feels that this is going to have a big impact on the Texas economy and the U.S. economy in general. Maybe some of these people will be motivated to buy gold with their new found cash. Especially if this can occur at a time when the equity market is falling and gold is on the upswing. Oh well hope springs eternal. Personally I've decided that possessing the physical is where I want to be. Thus I've been raising cash, and when gold hits $300 per ounce I'll be buying, conversely if it goes up to $340 per ounce I also be buying. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:16
Ted @tort>(@tort): - Tort: HELP!....We need another joke!...
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:15
Byron @ Testing:>(@ Testing:): - As they say on radio: This is a test, only a test. I always disliked tests. : (
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 14:03
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Just back from an ocean walk in a heavy fog and see the situation hasn't gotten any better...Comex: Gold down 4.80; Silver down 19.2 cents; Platinum down 12.2 dollars but Palladium UP 6.90...XAU holdin up pretty good all things considered...XAU down 2.14...
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:48
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - Is it a bad sign when Kitco has to re-scale the 24-hour Gold Price Chart in order to show the fall in spot gold for the day?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:46
Who Cares? CEOs :)>(CEOs :)): -
Since CEOs are the target of the day -
The current situation vis a vis CEOs is ( what else ) a function
of information. : ) Technically, the stockholders ( Board of
Directors ) control CEO salaries and compensation. But, CEOs
have control over the information that the stockholders receive.
Another conspiracy in the making. : )
I fully expect that the Crash will shake out the flaws in the
current system. I imagine that stockholders, after getting
their butts severly burned in the near future, will institute
a channel of information throughout the company that is isolated
from management. : )
Just another place for somebody, somewhere, to make money. : ) - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:41
rickstr @somewhere out there>(@somewhere out there): - Last year it was flight 800, this year it is flight 801, mmmm.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:40
Who Cares? Donald - electricity crash>(Donald - electricity crash): -
So there is a crash. Dang. I thought so. You're right, I
haven't looked at 1929 much. I assumed that the electricity
craze probably had been washed in 1907, because the time
frame is right. The growth rates from 1890 to 1900 are
unbelievable. Over 400% in ten years. That's got to be on a
par with today's high-tech stocks.
I am troubled that the electricity boom didn't manifest itself
as a separate, distinct crash. As near as I can tell, one of
the qualitative differences between railroad/Intel and elect/
software is that electricity and software have a great permeability
throughout the economy. You find them invading virtually all
industries and jobs. The railroads and Intel are more limited
and specific in their impact.
I have wondered if this is the difference. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:23
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - Price of gold is falling, price of guns ( including AK-47s ) are rising.... But I can't recieve them or ship them anywhere! Damn bunch of #%^#$@&** UPS union pukes.
Spud Master re:09:52
Agree with you assessment, but I don't much care for the unions or their Mafiaso management either. Those union management goons make as much as some CEOs. And some of the union people are a lot like some of those worthless U.S. civil servants you read about - they don't work and you can't fire them.
O.K., I'll go back to lurking like I promised....
************
'Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your
enemies'.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:11
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here): - From the same crystal ball that predicted the recent rally in gold to be a fakeout: the next move up in gold will be tradable, with an upside objective of at least $340 basis GCZ7. XAU target is 99 - 100. The bottom is near, we will NOT see Z7 below $310 regardless how strong the US$ gets. The crystal ball is that both GOX and HUI are acting stronger than the XAU for the second day in a row. Expect a bullish key reversal this week. In the same vein... secondary stocks are far stronger than big caps. Weakness is most pronounced in the large-cap bank stocks. Not a good sign for financial assets. The end is near. Ingot We Trust.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 13:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Buy Low, Sell High.
Going back to the bb fisher Dow/Gold chart with the full century of data you may want to look at the year 1980 with these thoughts in mind.
Gold was at 850 in that year. With the benefit of hindsight it was the low. If you had started selling 1/12 of your holdings each month at the point when it crossed the line from 1932, that is, during November, 1979, you would have done very well. You only missed a few dollars on the upside and you fully avoided the slide that continues to this moment. The moment of crossover was your exit signal.
Now look at the 1929 top when the ratio hit 18.43 ( not marked on the chart ) . Consider this moment of crossover as your re-entry signal. If you bought gold at the crossover point you are back in gold at 340 during January, 1997. We know now that 340 was not the bottom. In dealing with a 100 year chart showing a ratio of 28.6 as the top during that entire period there does not seem to be a lot of risk in beginning to cost average starting last January. Each of the major turning points, except 1966, had an acceptable trading level of about a year. If you were to decide on a final number of ounces for your long term buy and hold position, and accumulate 1/12 each month for a year, you should obtain your full position at a price that is very close to the final bottom.
If you are a short term trader this information is, obviously, not suitable for your purposes. In any event, it is your decision. I am merely providing some of my observations for those of you who may be considering a purchase or a sale today or in the near future. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 12:44
Bob A gut feeling>(gut feeling): - IMHO I expect the metals to reverse direction and head-up on Thurs.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 12:28
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Wesfarmers shares in Australia could be affected by El Nino
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970806/invest/invest2.html#table
( see last paragraph of this article ) The shares are extremely high in price. Up by over 70% for the year anyhow....
Apologies for typos. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 12:26
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Wesfarmers shares is Australia could be affected by El Nino
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970806/invest/invest2.html#table
( see last paragraph of this article ) The shares are extremely highly.
Up by over 70% for the year anyhow.... - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 12:26
Ron did 'ya know?>(did 'ya know?): - From the US Customs site: Gold coins, medals, and bullion, formerly prohibited, may be brought into the United States. However, under regulations administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, such items originating in or brought from Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea are prohibited entry. Copies of gold coins are prohibited if not properly marked by country of issuance.
------
Nosiree, can't let those tainted gold atoms from Cuba foul our virgin shores! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 12:26
EB profit.taking...oh.my?>(profit.taking...oh.my?): - Looks like PL is suffering from profiteers...yuk, yuk. I LOVE impeccable timing - Rid the PL/short the gold... I'm glad the swell sucks this morning. This is a MUCH better ride...
We're having one of those heat waves in CAL. Time to duck in for a little A/C... and a little Frozen Concentrate. Is everyone still drinking two glasses of OJ ( and red wine ) a day? Let's GO gang! Drink-up!
Away $$$$!!!!:- ) :- ) :-$
EB
RJ-don't worry ( i'm not a total numbskull ) i'm planning More strategies for our lovely, blessed, reverred, hallowed, envied, WHITE metal...Sooooon! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 12:12
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Thanks aurophile re: depression bonds.
Re: Sir James Goldsmith. He said recently
When an economic policy makes you rich when yo eliminate your national workforce and transfer your production abroad, and bankrupts you when you employ your own people, then something is wrong.
Am flying to Esperance this morning ( later when the sun gets up!! ) . Will check back in probably Saturday sometime. I have a great article to type in by Bob Santamaria about solutions to the depression. It has all been done before!! But the rentier class can't handle it. Very dumb of them. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:57
News @4 U>(@4 U): - LONDON, Aug 5 ( Reuter ) - Palladium fixed at its highest level in 17 years on Tuesday morning but by the afternoon fixing prices had turned easier across the precious metals complex.
A further surge in the dollar's value against the yen and mark was a factor behind the easier tone as dealers took profits and abandonded efforts to support gold or push silver higher.
Palladium fixed at $239.00 per ounce at the afternoon fixing down from the new high since March 1980 of $245.50 hit at the morning fix. Sister metal platinum fixed at $457.00 down from $460.00 earlier.
Gold came back to fix at $321.10 from $323.35 earlier and the December contract on New York's Comex futures market was down $4.60 at $323.50.
``Many people were expecting gold to go lower today. It has been under pressure from the currencies and support was wearing thin around the $322.00,'' one dealer said.
``Now that that is breached we could be looking for gold in a $314.50-$322.00 bracket,'' he added.
The weaker outlook for gold comes despite comments from leaders of India's gold industry that farmers, anticipating a bountiful harvest after a beneficial monsoon, may take advantage of low world prices. This should raise 1997 imports to over 500 tonnes from around 409 tonnes last year.
``The weight of selling orders over the market is much more significant for the price in the shorter term,'' a dealer said.
A strike at the platinum refinery of one-million ounces per year producer Imapla Platinum Holdings made no appreciable diffence to the platinum price which was being powered higher by interest in palladium, dealers said.
Management at the South African plant said production had not been affected despite attempts at disruption.
Platinum was indicated at $448.50/$451.50, down $1.50.
Dealers said platinum had become a very technical market following the entry of funds buying call options last week.
Palladium was off its early highs as well but dealers said this was not the end of a recent surge driven by a short-covering scramble in Tokyo as the surging dollar has bitten deeply into profit potential.
``There is still short covering to be done in Tokyo,'' one dealer said, noting that palladium futures have been limit up for four days straight and the daily trading limit was being widened from tomorrow.
Bulls abandoned their efforts to push silver through $4.50-$4.55. It was last at $4.40/$4.42, down seven cents.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:57
Mooney @Bart>(@Bart): - Bart - Gold is almost off your chart. Need to reconfigure.
Tortman - Your 7:49 basically says it all ( in the BIG picture AAR ) in these few words:
Despite my clinging doubts I will stick with the hard metal philosophy. It sounds better to me than investing in the philosophy that all is well with the markets and that you can't lose in paper. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:53
DJ Logic error>(Logic error): - What am I saying. Of course your hedge strategy is working as planned. You are making more money in shorts than you are losing in platinum. Of course even better would be for platinum to go up as well. This would make me happy too. Cheers still.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:53
Roy Orbison Alone and cryin... cryin...cryin...cryin..>(Alone and cryin... cryin...cryin...cryin..): - I'm cryin... cryin... over AU.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:41
DJ Thars gold in them thar shorts.>(Thars gold in them thar shorts.): - RJ - Looks like you get to break out the cognac again today. Hope you are not running short. ( Pun intended ) . At the moment it appears your hedge strategy is in trouble, but I would be quite surprised if PL stays down for long. The great thing about have people with different strategies and views on this forum is that no matter which way the metals move, we always get to help someone celebrate their success. Cheers.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:37
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Bonds for sale....going cheap
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970805/business/stories/bonds_1.html
BTW, I did mention that gold hadn't hit bottom yet, didn't I!!!!! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:22
Mooney @geff>(@geff): - geff - Is this the RSI indicator that you are speaking of, because if so, I am aware of it, but did realise what you meant by a 'percent R' sell signal had been given, I suppose lines crossed or more likely the RSI # became too high?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:19
GVC @part 1 is here, part 2 to begin?>(@part 1 is here, part 2 to begin?): - I posted on Aug 2 that there would be a scare decline to make both bulls and bears alike think the trend is still down, before reversing up. Today's action is just that. It is necessary action to clear out weak hands.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:13
6pak Thoughts @ Canada>(Thoughts @ Canada): - Modern.... Artificial.... Control
Be Quiet....Consume.......and Die
United We Fall....Divided We Stand - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:09
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - All - George Cole and I had a bit of a discussion a few weeks back wondering whether the latest drop ( that being the one after the Aussie announcement ) was going to be it or whether the second shoe would drop before the final bottom would be in. The evidence ( the relatively lackluster performance of gold since then ) has, for the last few weeks, not been particularily convincing that the absolute bottom was in. With today's action the second shoe dropping might be exactly what is needed to finally put in place the final bottom on the charts. This downward action so close to the new moon ( as hesitatingly prognosticated by my Friday Aug. 1 early A.M ) is making me pay more and more attention to our friend Akahulick's words. Now, if we reverse and start sky-rocketing on or about the 18th ( full moon ) I shall be joining his cult. ( However, I will not purchase any Nike's ) . The occurrence of sharp down moves within one or two days of a new moon and sharp up moves within one or two days of full moon's seems to be very regular as of late. Of course, I may be open to fanciful conjecture on this issue, as previously postulated by Mike Sheller. ;- )
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:06
MoreGold @the battlefield>(@the battlefield): - Folks it looks pretty grim. The ammo has almost run out, we are taking heavy casualties, and the enemy is closing in. We aren't sure if they take prisoners, or just simply execute. Maybee time to gather up the weapons and bid a hasty retreat.
IMHO there is extreme CB selling going on behind the scenes, which they will anounce once it's over. People in the must also be selling. It doesn't look good at all for Gold particularly in light of the strong Pgms.
I would not be surprised anymore to see 250. to 275. more sooner than later. Sorry for the pesimism, but it seems to be the harsh reality at the moment. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:03
Larryn larryn@ix.netcom.com>(larryn@ix.netcom.com): - We are seeing a very broad falloff of gold stocks, both domestic and S. African. XAU has covered the gap at 95+. With gold this low, this most certainly sets a new Dow/gold high ~25.5. However, being caused primarily by a decreasing gold, it cannot be much of a sign for a top.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:03
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - D.A. Truck blinked?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 11:03
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Thailand to get $10 billion from IMF. Promises not to sell off too much of its foreign reserves: http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100i.htm
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:57
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Hi JIN! D.A. Thanks for the response and IT looks cheap to me too...Looks like I was half-way right on Comex drag factor as Platinum is now down 5.20...and Gold down 4.0 and silver down 11.7 cents....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:47
Bridge FSAGX>(FSAGX): -
FSAGX down .84% while XAU down about 2%. Comments? Thanks. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:44
JIN WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIPHEWWWWWWWWWW>(WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIPHEWWWWWWWWWW): - TED AND DA,
THE KITCO SHOWN is 319.80 now!its closed to 313.....!let's see! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:42
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - Mooney--Percent R was developed by Larrt Williams. It is a relative overbought/oversold indicator which compares the last close in relation to the past X number of days ( the one I saw was 14 days ) .
Buy signals are only taken in an uptrend, sells only in a downtrend.
You can take a look at an example at www.midam.com--look up silver under custom charts.
Hope this helps.
Geff - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:38
D.A. re.gold>(re.gold): - Ted:
It sure does act pretty sick. As to 313, I don't really have a clue. I still own the junk and won't be a seller anytime soon. The action is again dictated by the surging dollar and perhaps European sales. It has been interesting to watch the price of gold in DM and see it throttled as it got a little over the 600 area. This is the second time we have bounced up to this level and been repelled. Perhaps the third time is a charm. As for the dollar, it would seem that the recent spurt may well tie the Fed's hand as the political pressure from multinationals weighs in. This will only add more fuel to the economic fire which ultimately is what is going to drive gold up.
The things that I am looking at in gold are big macro things. They are useless in informing one about the next 5$. All I know is that the stuff is cheap and hated. I am adding a bit to my silver position on this pullback, for it too is cheap, hated and disappearing. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:38
vronsky WE HAVE BEEN HAD (Is Former Pres. Nixon Turning in his Grave?)>(WE HAVE BEEN HAD (Is Former Pres. Nixon Turning in his Grave?)): - The U.S. Dollar has been over-valued for the last 26 years - since 1971. What is causing this overvaluation must be something extraordinary, but what can it be?:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/Tlaga001.html
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:37
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - As we await the market madness to end and the gold bull to begin, we can all take comfort in the fact that while no one can, with 100% certainty, predict the exact day that the reverses finally begin, they will begin in the not too distant future. The Dow and S+P's parabolic nature are simply unsustainable unless the laws of nature have been successfully repealled by current government's. ;- ) The following quote, frustrating, yet true, merely tells us to have patience.
The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.
------ Edward Gibbon - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:36
JIN YES ,bettttttter go for kayak...have a nice day!>(YES ,bettttttter go for kayak...have a nice day!): - ted,
yes ,klse in malaysia have big trouble since last 3/july,so as the currency markets!dropped 50 points nearly in few days...godness!i can say the local and foreign investors are SCARE and LEAVE THE MARKETS around in south east asia.Personally think, every cautions steps they took only still UNCLEAR AND NEED LONGER TIME TO PROVE!me my self have big trouble,short a lots of gold from 328 per oz still lost in the currency exchange rate as last time!EQUAL!GAIN NOTHINGS!!THE RETAIL MARKET IN MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE turn a bit better..,,,maybe short live ,i think!so long ,,,stormy nite.....good trade......jin... - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:25
Ted @DA>(@DA): - D.A. ( 10:20 ) Interesting post as usual!....Do you think Gold is headed back down to the 313 level...or even lower
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:20
Ted @grim day>(@grim day): - Panda: If the weather was better I'd jump in the kayak to escape...No mountains near by....XAU down 1.94 ......Are we headed down to test recent low of approx. 313?....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:20
D.A. re.dragging>(re.dragging): - Ted:
I don't think there is going to be a lot of dragging in the Pa market, except for the carcasses of drowned shorts. The market now looks like the proverbial deer in the headlights. The 80,000 pound truck traveling at 75 mph is bearing down rapidly. The Pa shorts are going to be even more squished than they already are. The dental industry is going to find that gold fillings are just as good as Pa and they will be about the same price.
After talking with a few contacts about the emergency meeting at the Tocom it was not hard to imagine that the Tocom officials might try to emulate the Comex honcho's of yesteryear in their battle with the Hunt bro's. There is however the high probability of an exquisite twist to this plot which may render this plan inoperable. While I can not say for sure, there is a strong likelyhood that the people on the other side of the Japanese short position in Tocom are the Russians. In order to fulfill their obligations to their Japanese clients it may well be that the Russians have purchased Pa in the Tokyo futures market.
The only regret I have about markets in general is that when a story with such intrigue as this eventually plays itself out, we never get to know what really happened but are left with many suppositions and dangling threads. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:17
panda @>(@): - Here's some more metals news. Looks like the PGMs are the way to go in this metals market!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/05/y0023_z00_15.html
BBL - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:14
panda @>(@): - TED -- Now it's partly sunny! When the sun comes out, it's great! Reminds of Montana weather this time of year. The way the gold market is reacting, it may be time to find a mountain or two to climb! This is getting too painful to watch. If I managed to fall off of one of those mountains, I think it would be more pleasurable! :- ) )
Therefore, I'll let my PC watch it for me and give me the grim details later today. :- ) - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 10:04
Ted @comex>(@comex): - A grim day at the Comex: Gold down 2.80;Silver down 11.2 cents but Platinum is up 4.80 and palladium is up 10.90 ( wow ) ...XAU down 1.57...Will gold +Silver drag down platinum+palladium before the day is over or will it work the other way....Thanks for weather report Panda and it's kinda grim here today too....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:57
Mooney @geff>(@geff): - geff- I admit it - I'm still learning and not as knowledgeable about technicals as I should be. What's a 'percentage R' sell sigmal?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:52
Mooney @RJ's.Request.Fri.Aug.1.20:35>(@RJ's.Request.Fri.Aug.1.20:35): - I am carked at those who beek in in utter adlubescence at RJ's killcow's. Although the debate has had its agathokakological aspects I am in a fary that we must be hoful that our chat is not carried on felly and, at the same time, we do not brangle, breedbate, become eyndill, nor fage, resort not to floccinaucinihilipilification, pumpkinification, nor resort to lickspigottery. Now let's all get back to work and build up our bulse!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:52
Spud Master are you an Aristocrat? Show us your fingers....>(are you an Aristocrat? Show us your fingers....): - re: UPS strike. Game over for the grossly overpaid CEOs and managers of corporations: they are useless parasites, consuming much money, and having little or no talent other than self-agrandizement and laying-off workers. ANY UPS delivery person does more REAL work & value than ANY coporate CEO. Let the CEO's multi-million dollar salaries be cut down to a dollar value comensurate with their real worth - maybe $50,000 - $70,000 a year. The remaining $4 million can be invested into the company as new R&D, increased wages for productive workers, new products. Any CEO making millions of dollars a year had better be inventing warp drive, room temperature superconductivity, cure for cancer, cold fusion etc. five or six times a day. Apple's former recent CEO - what did this guy do for the stock & millions they paid him? Laid off 7,000 Apple employees? Loose PC market share? Are people insane? And they paid this guy millions?! He should have PAY BACK millions to Apple for his poor performance!
Not one more cent for parasitical CEOs and their ilk!
Spud - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:24
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - For those who follow technical indicators, a Percent R sell signal was given in silver for this morning.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:23
D.A. re.kurt>(re.kurt): - Active Lurker:
Thanks, that was great. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:18
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - Hi RL, your comments about Bob Bishop's involvement with the home study
course sours the whole idea. Thanks for letting me know. This is the
kind'a thing that makes Kitco so very interesting! - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:12
panda @>(@): - TED -- The weather is overcast with occasional showers forecast for today. The temperature is about 60 degrees F right now. Looks like gold just went in to the hopper again!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:11
George Cole Joberg>(Joberg): - JOBERG Gold index down just 0.3% despite sharp drop in bullion this morning. Very encouraging action indeed!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:10
Ted @Comex>(@Comex): - Things ain't lookin good at the Comex....Gold down 1.90; Silver down 9.2 cents...but Platinum uo 2.30 .....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:05
RL reply to Leland>(reply to Leland): - You posted, To receive more information, Mark gives a toll-free number,
( 888 ) 846-9029, ext. #508. When I called the number to request more
information, the only question asked, besides my name and address, was
where did I learn about the course. My reply was Mark's publication
is called Forecasts & Strategies. This could be something worthwhile,
and it only takes about a minute to ask for more details.
If you had answered that question by saying Bob Bishop's newsletter you would have been offered an additional $259 off of the price of the course. $259 is the finder's fee that these newsletter writer's are being offered to drum up buyer's of this course. Bishop elected to eschew the commission and pass the savings on to any of his readers who purchase the course.
Just wanted you to be aware that Skousen has a financial interest in this educational opportunity he has offered you.
Regards,
RL - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 09:01
active lurker big-picture@ex.addict>(big-picture@ex.addict): -
This was Kurt Vonnegut’s commencement address at MIT:
Ladies and gentlemen of the class of ‘97:
Wear sunscreen.
If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen would be it. The long-term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists, whereas the rest of my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience. I will dispense this advice now.
Enjoy the power and beauty of your youth. Oh, never mind. You will not understand the power and beauty of your youth until they’ve faded. But trust me, in 20 years, you’ll look back at photos of yourself and recall in a way you can’t grasp now how much possibility lay before you and how fabulous you really looked. You are not as fat as you imagine.
Don’t worry about the future. Or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubble gum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4 pm on some idle Tuesday.
Do one thing every day that scares you.
Sing.
Don’t be reckless with other people’s hearts. Don’t put up with people who are reckless with yours.
Floss..
Don’t waste your time on jealousy. Sometimes you’re ahead, sometimes you’re behind. The race is long and, in the end, it’s only with yourself.
Remember compliments you receive. Forget the insults. If you succeed in doing this, tell me how.
Keep your old love letters. Throw away your old bank statements.
Stretch.
Don’t feel guilty if you don’t know what you want to do with your life. The most interesting people I know didn’t know at 22 what they wanted to do with their lives. Some of the most interesting 40-year-olds I know still don’t.
Get plenty of calcium. Be kind to your knees. You’ll miss them when they’re gone.
Maybe you’ll marry, maybe you won’t. Maybe you’ll have children, maybe you won’t. Maybe you’ll divorce at 40, maybe you’ll dance the funky chicken on your 75th wedding anniversary. Whatever you do, don’t congratulate yourself too much, or berate yourself either. Your choices are half chance. So are everybody else’s.
Enjoy your body. Use it every way you can. Don’t be afraid of it or of what other people think of it. It’s the greatest instrument you’ll ever own.
Dance, even if you have nowhere to do it but your living room.
Read the directions, even if you don’t follow them.
Do not read beauty magazines. They will only make you feel ugly.
Get to know your parents. You never know when they’ll be gone for good. Be nice to your siblings. They’re your best link to your past and the people most likely to stick with you in the future.
Understand that friends come and go, but with a precious few you should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps in geography and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need the people who knew you when you were young.
Live in New York City once, but leave before it makes you hard. Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you soft. Travel.
Accept certain inalienable truths: Prices will rise. Politicians will philander. You, too, will get old. And when you do, you’ll fantasize that when you were young, prices were reasonable, politicians were noble, and children respected their elders.
Respect your elders.
Don’t expect anyone else to support you. Maybe you have a trust fund. Maybe you’ll have a wealthy spouse. But you never know when either one might run out.
Don’t mess too much with your hair or by the time you’re 40 it will look 85.
Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it’s worth.
But trust me on the sunscreen.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:59
Professor @thefuture>(@thefuture): - November 12, 1997: Transcript from CNBC:
Just a few short months ago the mere mention of the word gold brought about laughter and sarcastic comments. The stock bull was raging and investors were picking their stocks because a friend of a friend said it was going up and it was just the place to be. If you were not in the market you were a looser, was the general consensus.
Now it seems as though investors can’t get enough of the shinny metals and the mention of the words Stock Market bring about the look of pain and stress in a persons face. All this from those who said, times are different now, are now saying, I should of known.
Its important in life to remember that everything in life has a cycle. The earth, the weather, the food chain, the power that comes into your home, and if you understand biorhythms you know that people cycle too. So it should only be common sense to see that financial markets cycle also. This cycle will continue until the end of time. The only thing constant is change!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:55
Bob A atwork>(atwork): - Seems to me that with all the interest in Plat and Pall.that PDLCF and SWC could be takeover targets. That would make my day or year for that matter.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:46
Ted @EBN>(@EBN): - Mornin Panda! Every EBN commodity is down...gold down .70 and silver down 4 cents....Panda: What's your weather today
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:34
panda @news>(@news): - Palladium news;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/05/z0000_2.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/05/y0023_z00_10.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/05/z0000_4.html
Dollar/ DM story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/05/z0006_z00_2.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:33
Ted @JIN>(@JIN): - Good afternoon JIN!...Sounds like your stock market had a bad Tuesday....
Mornin Tort!!....S+P futures= - 2.90 ....EBN Gold down .60 - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:31
EB up at 5am back down at 5:30...bad week for waves...>(up at 5am back down at 5:30...bad week for waves...): - great week for EB's markets...Gotta love it
away...to dreamland to watch sugarplums dance...and Gold poop...
EB
nothing like a good gold short in the wee hours... - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:13
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - TORT: Mark Skousen recommends no more than 10% of portfolio in natural
resources, and for investors to be looking for undervalued stocks, as
this is a good time for buying. He is not looking for any quick recovery
for gold. He's very sensible, as usual. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:08
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - Previous post on global derivities should have indicated PER DAY.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 08:01
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - Speaking about bubbles Leo F. Hood's latest newsletter Ripples in the Wave states the global derivities markets are estimated to be in the $40 to $50 TRILLION range. The Trillion is correct. Tulips anyone?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Thailand Finance Ministry proposes cure for economy.
http://www.brecorder.com/ - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:54
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - OLDMAN: You Aug 4 23:48 post says a lot about how our governments ( Fed,State,and Local ) with all their regulations and taxing methods are destroying our country. It made me want to cry. The investment mania bubble will certainly bust with disasterous results. Always felt you were one of the most astute posters on this board. Please keep contributing.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:53
Torfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Leland, what is Mark Skousen's prediction about the gold market? I used to watch his predictions pretty close but somehow lost track.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:51
Tort Erata>(Erata): - That would be languish rather than language in the last post. Sorry. I am not quite awake yet.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:50
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - Mark Skousen's current newsletter suggests that while we're waiting for
another bull market in precious metals, it might be a good time to learn
more about mining shares and how they fit into our crazy economy. He
recommends an audio/video home study course offered by Mining Investment
College. To receive more information, Mark gives a toll-free number,
( 888 ) 846-9029, ext. #508. When I called the number to request more
information, the only question asked, besides my name and address, was
where did I learn about the course. My reply was Mark's publication
is called Forecasts & Strategies. This could be something worthwhile,
and it only takes about a minute to ask for more details.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:49
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning): - It looks like gold and silver are going to language where they are for a bit. One occasionally ponders as to why he is a goldbug after all, but the habit is there and its easier to change the stripes on a zebra than change a philosophy about our beloved metal. Despite my clinging doubts I will stick with the hard metal philosophy. It sounds better to me than investing in the philosophy that all is well with the markets and that you can't lose in paper. Now for the joke of the morning.
One day an out of work mime is visiting the zoo and attempts to earn
some money as a street performer. Unfortunately, as soon as he starts
to draw a crowd, a zoo keeper grabs him and drags him into his office.
The zoo keeper explains to the mime that the zoo's most popular
attraction, a gorilla has died suddenly and the keeper fears that
attendance at the zoo will fall off. He offers the mime a job to dress
up as the gorilla until they can get another one. The mime accepts.
So the next morning the mime puts on the gorilla suit and enters the
cage before crowd comes. He discovers that it's a great job.
He can sleep all he wants, play and make fun of people and he draws
bigger crowds than he ever did as a mime. However, eventually the
crowds tire of him and he tires of just swinging on tires. He begins
to notice that the people are paying more attention to the lion in
the cage next to his. Not wanting to lose the attention of his audience,
he climbs to the top of his cage, crawls across a partition, and dangles
from the top to the lion's cage. Of course, this makes the lion
furious, but the crowd loves it.
At the end of the day the zoo keeper comes and gives the mime a raise
for being such a good attraction.
Well, this goes on for some time, the mime keeps taunting the lion, the
crowds grow larger, and his salary keeps going up. Then one terrible
day when he is dangling over the furious lion he slips and falls.
The mime is terrified. The lion gathers itself and prepares to pounce.
The mime is so scared that he begins to run round and round the cage
with the lion close behind. Finally, the mime starts screaming and
yelling, Help, Help me!, but the lion is quick and pounces.
The mime soon finds himself flat on his back looking up at the angry
lion and the lion says,
Shut up you idiot! Do you want to get us both fired? - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - OOPS; My error. Here is the Pakistani story. ( stocks up 1.26% over night on the goodnews part of this story )
http://www.brecorder.com/ - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:42
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Governor of Pakistani Central Bank warns that interest cap of 21% will put banks in real trouble ( This is buried in the bottom of the last story on the list )
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Malaysia has no plans to halt currency speculation. ( Yesterday they had tricks up their sleeves, stocks down 3.5% overnight but not in this story )
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/05sacr.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:23
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Brazil says reserves hit new high.
Korean bankruptcy impacts Brazil
Canadians search for diamonds in Brazil
http://200.246.213.8/gmnoti.htm#not1 - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 07:10
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japanese household spending drops 4.7% from year ago. Deflation?
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/Even.html#gen134 - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:54
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: Hi George, re your dollar comment. I am rethinking my position on the dollar. I had thought the strength was a sign of weakness, ie everyone needs it to pay excessive dollar debt. After the stock crash though, as dollars evaporate, there could be a real shortage of dollars. We will have to see the Fed's reaction and whether or not dollars pile up in the banks unused again.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:48
Ted @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald!...I miss alot of posts too as I'm even an hour ahead of you...Usually get up earlier but it's a grey rainy day on the North Atlantic ocean...Dollar surging against Mark ( 1.8790 ) in the last hour as Germany didn't raise rates....BBL....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:42
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hello Ted: Already finished my second cup while reading all the posts that were made after I went to bed. All the good intellectual stuff gets posted while I am making zzzzzzz's.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:41
capnkev @yawnnn>(@yawnnn): - mornin' all, trust we are all set for the day?
Hmmm seems so far i didnot get kicked out of my short corn position,still picking up dec gold options ( lottery ) .
Oldman ,good to see you back .
Lookin to short dem BEANS awaiting signal , still trying to get the hang of DTNstant system. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:24
Ted @ocean>(@ocean): - perliminary=preliminary in Cape Breton....just woke up...kind of!..the java is brewin and I NEED it...
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:21
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Stox in Europe bouncin back from yesterday....EBN gold down .35 and Silver down 2 cents....but london Silver up 4 cents...LEI out this mornin with the perliminary est.@ .2% .....UPS: Is this the beginning of worker backlash.....I want my piece of the pie...ect..ect...could change investor psychology about inflation.....
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 06:01
Shanoon @webtv.net>(@webtv.net): -
Am informed that in 1971 it became once again legal for American citizens to own and purchase gold, and that this event helped launch gold into a bull market culminating in 1974 at about $200 per ounce.This leads me to wonder if the Russian policy allowing their citizens to own and purchase gold might lead to a similarly bullish trend?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 05:55
GEORGE COLE MARKETS>(MARKETS): - Dollar very strong again this morning. European stock markets up. Gold down 40 cents as the whites rise further.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 05:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WHO CARES: There was indeed a Crash of electric utilities but is was so mixed up with the crash of '29 that it gets little attention in its own right. You want to look up information about Samuel Insull. I have a URL here which is a good start.
http://cs.muohio.edu/Archives/h-business/aug-95/0010.html - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 05:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Who Cares: Yours at 3:03. That is a great analysis. You should be proud of it. One caution. During the railroad era you had real savers and a gold standard. Savers could safely set aside money for capital to supply to your railroad, the manufacturers etc. Today there are no savers. The IS business is largely financed by credit. That is an excess cost that must be included in the price of the product. The Panic of 1907 was largely caused by railroads who attempted to use credit for expansion and could not compete with those who used saved capital as they had a lower cost. Could not the same event happen in the IS industry? The low cost survivors in the IS industry will, most likely, be those who use debt to the least extent. Keep that kind of stuff coming. I love it.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 05:02
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To All
Do not know where the info you get on Implats
and rusplats comes from but I dont think it is the full
story.
Implats normally has contract prices which lag the
market price by 6 months ( either up or down ) . IF they
entered into a forward sale for ( 5 years ) - it would
have been done at a high level ( order of 500$/oz ) and
would escalate by about 8% per year.
Rusplat/leplat/pp-rust do not have this 6 month lag
in their pricing arragements - If they have sold forward
as you suggest then they would also have used the
recent high price period in which to do so. They may have
entered into an long term offtake agreement but if so,
it would have been at a high base price with a handsome
escalation. Otherwise they would have no reason to do it
since they were profitable at much lower prices. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 03:03
Who Cares? Miro, New Era = Information Age>(Miro, New Era = Information Age): -
Miro mentions a real drop in income as a software developer.
Please say you don't work in the PC market. : ) Oh, yeah, right,
if you're doing Y2K stuff, it's got to be mainframes. Okay, there's
no imminient crash yet. : )
Aurophile - Re: Cost of information. For the past five years,
I've been using the post-Civil War / railroads as a model for
now. I know of one Internet poster, MaryM, that believes the
1790 period is more accurate. You might want to do a DejaNews
search and pull up her postings, use http:\\www.dejanews.com,
choose a query, do a search on MaryM in the misc.invest news
groups. She can be interesting.
Re: COI - I am absolutely convinced that #1 our economy is being
increasingly driven by the IS industry, #2 this is largely related
to the rate at which the COST of information is dropping, versus
the PRICE which information can be sold at, i.e. expanding profit
margins despite enormous increases in total investment / costs,
#3 at some point in the near future, the rate of change will
diminish, or even possibly increase ( :o ) .
Some of the macro-trends from the railroads : a large portion of
the VALUE of railroads was derived from the breakup of what amounts
to local commodity monopolies. Immediately following the Civil War,
you see decreasing prices for commodities for almost thirty years.
Today's information industry is doing the same thing, here's an example
from my class last week:
Twenty years ago, when my senior high school class wanted to
create student IDs, we had to
i ) hire a photographer
ii ) work around HIS schedule for pictures
iii ) send out negatives for development by yet another
third party
iv ) wait two or three weeks, then pay twenty bucks. : )
Last month, when we wanted to create student IDs, we
i ) took our digital camera
ii ) instructed student to say cheese
iii ) imported picture file into a software template
iv ) printed ID on color printer, laminated it.
Look at that. Digital camera has destroyed not ONE, but
TWO local monopolies. And, yes, you could argue that they
may not have possessed an actual monopoly, but they sure as
darn tooting were charging more than we could do it for by
ourselves now. : ) Our costs for this were a joke. The digital
camera, depreciated out, probably contributes about $.30 or
$.40 per picture. The printer, less than $1.00.
Railroads have some interesting feedback effects. As the
RR drove down commodity costs, they create a positive feedback
cycle. After all, the RR themselves run on iron, coal, and labor.
Now they're driving the prices of these items down. : ) As local
commodity monopolies are broken up, you drive labor costs down.
Those labor costs feed the manufacturing companies that are
springing up. Manufacturing companies distribute agriculture
equipment that increases productivity ten-fold in a few years,
which drives labor costs down further. Railroads have a plentiful
labor supply to build more RRs, which breaks up more local
monopolies. The ten-fold increase in agri drives down prices
even further, freeing up more labor.
The real difference that I can find between the two is that
the Civil War is quantifiable, i.e. you can MEASURE the
increase in goods & services, the changes in income are
PREDICTABLE.
One of the biggest bugaboos in IS is that it truly is
unpredictable, as I learned from my previous project. I
originally estimated that we'd see a ROI of perhaps 25-30%
on a projected expenditure of $4-5 million. To make a long
story short, three years later, the cost/benefit figures
came out to a ROI in excess of 400%. : ) Absolutely
unpredictable. : )
I think this miasma of unpredictability is partly responsible
for the sustained delusional mania of the past three years. The
guys on Wall Street have absolutely no idea of how to price
information and its effects. Nobody does. That project could
just as easily have come up with an ROI of -400%. We're not
dealing in tangibles anymore.
Another aspect that bothers me is that the single largest purchaser
of IS is the Federal government. Essentially, you have an
Information Infrastructure monopoly of Intel / Microsoft, supported
by the monopoly of State and Federal governments. There is a
strong likelyhood, in my mind, that the current Price of
Information is overvalued.
I also strongly believe that the Industrial Revolution was
probably MORE revolutionary than what is taking place now,
i.e. the Information Age is greatly overblown. Virtually
none of the investors or market analysts even know that
the Industrial Revolution was. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 02:25
Who Cares? Jack - IPOs>(Jack - IPOs): -
Jack - IPO ratios - I had to admit ( because I *hate* making
mistakes ) but it never occurred to me to research it. : ) Nobody
ever asked before. I've mostly concentrated on macro-trends.
I do know that the railroads were considered to be the high-tech/
growth stocks after the Civil War, and electricity-related
stocks eclipsed them after 1890.
I also know that the electricity boom didn't produce a crash
like the railroads did. I have no idea why, other than perhaps
the capital costs involved. I'm often tempted to compare software
stocks to electricity. Often not, too.
Dang, that's a good question. I just don't pay much attention
to stock-specific information.
To make up for it, here's something you may not have seen before:
Year Event
1857 Land crash, minor depression
1869 Gold panic, market crash
1873 Big panic, market crash, depression
1884 Minor panic
1893 Panic, commercial building bust, depression
1907 Panic
1929 Panic, the Big Crash
1987 Big Panic
What do the years 1857, 1869, 1873, 1893, and 1929 have in
common? : ) Before answering, please note that these dates
represent 60% of the total dates....
Post-presidential election years. : ) Like 1997. : ) This
isn't a large enough statistical sample to make a real assessment,
but it's good enough for me. : )
One of the reasons I own gold, and don't care about the price,
is that I absolutely do not believe that I am capable of calling
the crash accurately. : )
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 02:09
Jack keep them coming>(keep them coming): -
6pac: Best educational information I seen in a long time. If inclined - KEEP THEM COMING -, we all have a lot to learn. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:37
Auric @home>(@home): -
Good evening fellow Kitcoites. Son of a gun. Gold seems to be eating Platinum's dust again. Nice to see things back to normal around here! BTW, I used today as a buying opportunity. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:30
Jack I believe>(I believe): -
As late as 1980, Russia was reputed to have had large
gold reserves. My thinking is that the recently
published purchase of 127 tonne was just Russian owned
gold making a round trip.
You know, certain private agreements and that sought of
stuff. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:28
Jack I believe>(I believe): -
As late as 1980, Russia was reputed to have had large gold reserves. My thinking is that the recently published purchase of 127 tonne in was just Russian owned gold that making a round trip.
You know, certain private agreements and that sought of stuff. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:23
DJ Afterthought.>(Afterthought.): - RJ - According to the news release I posted earlier today, Rustenburg earnings for 1996 were adversely affected by the lower platinum price in their fiscal year ending June, relative to the previous. This implies that their selling price does flucuate to some quite significant degree based on market price. Thus it should work to their favor in the coming year.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:15
DJ Ooops!>(Ooops!): - RJ - Previous was of course from DJ, not RJ. It's getting late.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:13
Jack Does anybody know?>(Does anybody know?): -
Who Cares: Your posts are especially appreciated. May I ask, what is probably an unanswerable question.
In the days of the Railroad Barrons, did the new IPO's have Capitalization to Sales ratios of 50-1 or 200-1 as some of todays IPO's have?
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:10
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Gonna go watch the movie that'll be playing on the backside of my eyelids. BBL.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 01:00
RJ RSA Platinum Hedging>(RSA Platinum Hedging): - RJ - Thanks for your response. Very interesting!! This may well explain why Rustenburg and Impala prices seem almost disconnected from the price of platinum.
You mentioned that 5-years's production had been presold to the Japanese, but that the price was not inflexible. Do you have any more specifics that you are at liberty to disclose? How much will the mining companies benefit from the higher metal prices?
So in the last couple of days at Kitco, we have learned that RSA, SWC, and PDLFC ( N.A. Platinum ) are all locked in at some pre-agreed price. Probably the same holds true for Russia. It seems that only people like you that were astute enough to own the metal or who bought futures will really benefit from the price increase.
BTW, I'm very impressed that you actually meet with this exhalted group. But I guess I'm not surprised. This is your business, and you seem the sort that does his homework.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Miro -- Sounds logical up to a point. Kind of like Russia removing a couple zeros from their bills. Doesn't change a thing though. Sh*t is still sh*t. When you spiral everones wages down, you also have to do the same to the whole infrastructure of taxes and debt. How many years do you have to pay on that new school two blocks down the road? How about on that new one proposed for construction next year? Those 'fixed' costs are not going to go down. Defaulted perhaps. And don't forget that you, as a property owner in that town and/or county is BOUND to make it good! By YOUR property are you bound to make it good! Right up until you default! So you think you can do with lower and lower cost of living adjustments to your wages. Also don't forget about the rising prices of all those items that just somehow do not seem to be reflected in the CPI! Ah shoot, I forgot. You don't use those items anyway. Me neither. No one does! Somehow, I just cannot understand why there is SO much credit card debt out there. Just let us continue to see stagnant wages! HAR!!!!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:47
Strad Master Time for some levity!>(Time for some levity!): - ALL: As it seems to be a quiet night, I thought several of you would appreciate this joke a friend sent me. I hope Tort didn't post this one earlier while I was away.
Clinton and the Pope died on the same day and due to some administrative foul up, Clinton gets sent to heaven and the Pope gets sent to hell.
The Pope explains the situation to the hell administration, they check
their paperwork, and the error is acknowledged. They explain, however, that it will take about 24 hours to make the switch.
The next day, the Pope is called in and the hell administration bids him farewell and he heads for heaven. On the way up, he meets Clinton on the
way down, and they stop to chat.
Pope: Sorry about the mix up.
Clinton: No problem.
Pope: Well, I'm really excited about going to heaven.
Clinton: Why's that?
Pope: All my life I've wanted to meet the Virgin Mary.
Clinton: Oh-oh! You're a day late. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:37
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - oldman -- Been a little lax on reading some of those books that I haven't been aware of. I did grow up in a family that was interested in these topics though. Perhaps some of the concepts and rational became ingrained. In any case, I'll keep an eye peeled for the book and the author's work you dare not post. I'm not hopeful in finding that one though! I probably came across references from it in the distant past. Part of that 'ingraindness' no doubt.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:35
Jack Lets all laugh together>(Lets all laugh together): -
ELDORADO: ( 23:58 ) It's going to happen; and I hope to laugh with you -especially if my stock picks agree; and I don't want them back either. - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:26
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - Dow Jones and NYSE headed for smash. Market calls for holiday close to subdue panic selling. Next newapaper headlines. Read all about it. Not to far away in the distant future.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:23
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Vieserre -- I would say that manure would be putting it very 'lightly'. A deep pit of quicksand might more be descriptive of the situation. Large enough to hold ALL of us. What I'd like to do is try to figure out which set of countries will fare worse; the net importers or the net exporters. Perhaps they'll all fare equally bad. That exercise should be entertaining for awhile!
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:14
Lan Man @In the News...>(@In the News...): - * Falconbridge ( FL.TO ) was hit by a strike that shut down almost half of its nickel production.
* Parametric Technology ( PMTC.O ) was ordered to pay an ex-executive $1.6 million after a jury found the company fired him because he was about to exercise his stock options.
* The new tax law passed by Congress last week will eliminate Americans' right to defer taxes when they sell an old home and buy a new one -- a change that will be costly to owners of high-priced homes.
* In material provided at the analysts' meeting, Asarco said its annual earnings sensititivty is $0.124 per share for each $1 per ounce change in the price of silver, $0.113 per share for each $1 per pound change in molybdenum prices, $0.16 per share for each $0.01 per pound change in copper prices, $0.043 per share for earch $0.01 per pound change in lead and $0.016 per share for each $0.01 per pound change in zinc prices.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:10
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - 6pak -- The bankers are and have been ONE BIG happy family! Now figure out what will make them even happier. Follow the money. Follow the power. Perhaps there is a lot to the global plantation theme.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:10
KRY @Down but not Out!>(@Down but not Out!): - CARACAS, Aug 4 ( Reuter ) - Canada's Crystallex International Corp said Saturday's ceremony to mark the start of construction at the Las Cristinas concession in Venezuela was a publicity stunt and reiterated its claim to the property.
Over the weekend, top officials of Crystallex's rival Placer Dome Corp ( PDG.TO ) and the Venezuelan government put in motion a $600 million joint venture project to develop the site in southeastern Bolivar state despite a legal battle with Crystallex over rights.
For the record, our subsidiary Inversora Mael is the only party with title to Cristinas 4 and 6, as officially registered on title records, as published in the country's Official Gazette, and as confirmed by the Supreme Court in three separate decisions, Crystallex President and CEO Marc Oppenheimer was quoted as saying in a statement released Monday in Vancouver.
The ground-breaking ceremony at the site Saturday suggests disrespect for the court itself, Oppenheimer added.
Placer Dome President and Chief Executive John Wilson told reporters Saturday that the company was confident that its legal wrangle with Crystallex would soon be over.
Placer, which has a 70 percent stake in the project with the Venezuelan government, has estimated the Cristinas concessions could produce 450,000 ounces of gold per year for more than 14 years.
( ( -- Caracas newsroom, 582 505 2600 ) ) - Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:09
Vieserre home>(home): - Good Night
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:08
Vieserre home>(home): - Eldo: I have no quarrel with that argument. What is happening of course, as you imply, is that our dollars are going abroad to invest in equipment and educate others how to better compete, and our trade deficit is being supported by dollars coming back into bonds. But if that were to reverse, particularly with our lack of savings as a nation, we will be in deep manure.
- Date: Tue Aug 05 1997 00:07
Lan Man @Closing Bell >(@Closing Bell ): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended higher, with the
exception of gold, as platinum futures climbed to fresh contract
highs, and palladium futures ended locked limit up for the second
day in row.
Palladium should easily stay locked up tomorrow for the third day
in a row, RJ Futures president and NYMEX floor trader, Ralph
D'Esposito, said. The maximum expanded daily limit of $12.00 will
apply Tuesday.
For now we would advise not to try to pick a top in these
markets, Smith Barney analyst David Rinehimer said. We would
focus on the backwardations and lease rates as indicators of the
extent of supply tightness. Cash platinum and palladium prices are
carrying premiums of $2.00 to $15.00 to their respective nearby
futures, while one month lease rates are reported around 30 percent
for platinum and 80 percent for palladium.
Doubts about Russia as a reliable supplier, uncertainty over the
size of the Russian PGM stockpile, and reports of a power struggle
for control of Russian PGM exports between the Russian precious
metals export agency ( Almaz ) , the Finance Ministry, producer
Norilsk Nikel, and the central bank, should keep the supply outlook
problematic, Rinehimer said.
Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended up 3.7 cents at $4.507 an
ounce, after fund buying, and stop order execution above $4.50,
pushed the contract to a session high at $454.00, its highest level
since July 7.
With the constant withdrawal in COMEX silver stocks lately, it
appears there's a little more of friendly feeling toward silver
than there is toward gold, Pell Brothers COMEX floor trader Don
Tierney said. COMEX silver stocks fell a further 530,732 ounces
Friday to 169,078,681, the lowest level since the addition of the
Wilmington Trust stocks in January.
But COMEX December gold ended down 80 cents an ounce at $328.10, as
gold prices continued to consolidate following a slide to 12-year
lows in July. The CFTC Commitment of Traders data, released late
Friday,
for the period ended July 29, showed funds had reduced their
net short COMEX gold positions to 56,626 contracts from a near
record 74,588 contracts two weeks earlier.
Gold prices are seen capped by the strength of the U.S. dollar
which rose to new seven year highs against the mark, new four year
highs against the Swiss franc, and a new seven year high on the
dollar's trade weighted index Monday. Using the statistical
technique of regression analysis, Smith Barney analyst Jim Collins
in Chicago concluded there is a reasonably good fit between changes
in the U.S. dollar index ( .DXY ) and changes in the price of gold.
Gold has fallen at virtually the same time that the U.S. dollar
has registered gains against virtually all major trading partners,
Collins said.
For the full text story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4279377-f90
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 324.00 324.70 323.50 323.90 _.80 414.50 314.60
Oct97 326.00 326.70 325.50 326.00 _.80 426.50 316.80
Dec97 328.20 328.70 327.60 328.10 _.80 456.50 318.50
Feb98 330.00 330.90 330.00 330.40 _.80 424.00 322.50
Jun98 335.00 335.00 334.80 334.70 _.80 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 30497
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 445.50 454.00 445.50 450.70 +3.70 576.00 418.00
Dec97 451.50 460.00 451.50 457.20 +3.70 701.90 424.00
Mar98 462.50 464.00 460.50 463.60 +3.70 573.00 432.00
Est. Sales 14413
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 215.60 215.60 215.60 u215.60 +9.00 206.60 128.75
Dec97 207.60 207.60 207.60 u207.60 +9.00 198.60 120.25
Est. Sales 231
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 441.80 458.00 441.80 u455.20 +16.70 439.00 355.50
Jan98 434.00 447.00 434.00 u445.20 +17.70 426.00 360.00
Est. Sales 2949
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Vieserre -- Service growth. True in the past, not so much anymore. You only need so many hamburger flippers, grass trimmers, laundromats, trinket stores and gas stations. Then it becomes the next niche that is overcrowded with little or no return on investment. Remember when the malls were half full with shoe stores? Many aren't anymore. Better to put your money in a bank earning simple interest. Less headaches too! As for the refrigerators, give it a little time. It's not like OUR manufacturers are done moving out of here! The day WILL come when I'm really going to laugh my ASS off as they all come to the realization that their market has died here and they didn't pay wages enough to make any NEW markets in their new Home Countries! I hope at the same time that we simply say, We don't want you back, and, Oh by the way, money doesn't cross our borders. ONLY goods in exchange, ThankYou! See anything you'd like to take home with you?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:58
Byron @ The PL>(@ The PL): - Nite All. Lights out here at the library. ....just hope that news conference in Japan doesn't turn the lights out on gold.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:53
aurophile (>((): - former: I met a man last night who had just returned from fantasy vacation ( ? ) aboard a Russian icebreaker. Said vessel is hired out to rich foreign tourists with a taste for the bizarre who wish to get to the northpole so that they may truthfully claim they have walked around the world, and such like. He said the ship was loaded with KGB people who had nothing better to do and were shipped off to the Arctic to keep them out of harm's way, or way's harm.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:51
6pak End of @ Posts>(End of @ Posts): - The House Stabilization Hearings of 1928 proved conclusively that the
Governors of the Federal Reserve System had been holding conferences with
heads of the big European *central banks*. Even had the Congressmen
known the details of the plot which was to culminate in the Great
Depression of 1929-31, there would have been nothing they could have done
to stop it.
The international bankers who controlled gold movements could inflict
their will on any country, and the United States was as helpless as any
other.
Notes from these House Hearings follow:
MR. BEEDY: I notice on your chart that the lines which produce the most
violent fluctuations are found under *Money Rates in New York*.As the
rates of money rise and fall in the big cities the loans that are made on
investments seem to take advantage of them, at present, a quite violent
change, while industry in general does not seem to avail itself of these
violent changes, and that line is fairly even, there being no great rises
or declines.
GOVERNOR ADOLPH MILLER: This was all more or less in the interests of the
international situation. They sold gold credits in New York for sterling
balances in London.
REPRESENTATIVE STRONG: ( No relation to Benjamin ) : Has the Federal Reserve
Board the power to attract gold to this country ?
E.A. GOLDENWEISER, research director for the Board:: The Federal Reserve
Board could attract gold to this country by making money rates higher.
GOVERNOR ADOLPH MILLER: I think we are very close to the point where any
further solicitude on our part for the monetary concerns of Europe can
be altered. The Federal Reserve Board last summer, 1927, set out by a
policy of open market purchases, followed in course by reduction on the
discount rate at the Reserve Banks, to ease the credit situation and to
cheapen the cost of money. The official reasons for that departure in
credit policy were that it would help to stabilize international exchange
and stimulate the exportation of gold.
CHAIRMAN MCFADDEN: Will you tell us briefly how that matter was brought
to the Federal Reserve Board and what were the influences that went into
the final determination ?
GOVERNOR ADOLPH MILLER: You are asking a question impossible for me to
answer.
CHAIRMAN MCFADDEN: Perhaps I can clarify it - where did the suggestions
come from that caused this decision of the change of rates last summer ?
GOVERNOR ADOLPH MILLER:The three largest *central banks* in Europe had
sent representatives to this country. There were the Governor of the Bank
of England, Mr. Montagu Norman, the President of the German Reichsbank,
Mr. Hjalmar Schacht, and Professor Rist, Deputy Governor of the Bank of
France. These gentlemen were in conference with officials of the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York. After a week or two, they appeared in
Washington for the better part of a day. They came down the evening of
one day and were the guests of the Governors of the Federal Reserve
Board the following day, and left that afternoon for New York.
CHAIRMAN MCFADDEN: Were the members of the Board present at this luncheon
GOVERNOR ADOLPH MILLER: Oh, yes, it was given by the Governors of the
Board for the purpose of bringing all of us together.
CHAIRMAN MCFADDEN: Was it a social affair, or were matters of importance
discussed?
GOVERNOR MILLER: I would say it was mainly a social affair. Personally,
I had a long conversation with Dr. Schacht alone before the luncheon, and
also one of considerable length with Professor Rist. After the luncheon
I began a conversation with Mr. Norman, which was joined in by Governor
Strong of New York.
CHAIRMAN MCFADDEN: Was that a - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:51
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - WIZARD, The USD washed up on our beaches. Unfortunatly, I agree. The U.S. is going to get whacked in a big way. Not much time to prepare.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:48
oldman #>(#): - former: When this bubble bursts, you will be joined by many millions more. During the '70's and '80's I created over 200 high paying jobs for American manufacturing workers. As the '90's dawned, I was faced with the choice of either moving the plant to Mexico or selling out to a multi-national. I sold. The money I got in '93 has made me more money than I made in all my life before. A greater reward in 4 years from the market than for a lifetime of building a business and employing people. A little twisted, huh?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:43
Ted @earl>(@earl): - Earl: You should go to Bangkok!...Again: good night ALL!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:41
former wage@slave>(wage@slave): - I used to be a sailor on US flag merchant ships. My salary alone, not including benefits, was equal to all the payroll for all 45 personal on Red Chinese ships; everyone from the captain to the Bed room Stewards. This was in 1988. Now in the 1990's there are even cheaper sailors...The Russians. They basically work for poor food, running water and a place to sleep. There is some heating of the cabins and AC, but if the machinery breaks, it doesn't get spares or repairs.
Needless to say, my employer, a fortune 500 company decided they didn't need me anymore - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:41
oldman @>(@): - Eldorado: Your post could have come directly from Sir James's book, :The Trap. Its only a little over 100 pages, and should be read by everyone who is interested in what's happening in the world today. He and Henry Ford, IMHO, were the two greatest industrialists of the 20th century. They both believed that the economy existed to serve the people of the nation, not a small group of dealers in paper. Ford also wrote a book. It sold over 10 million copies, but I can't even mention the title. If I named the book, my posting privileges would be revoked forthwith.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:39
Miro bring wages to the third world level?>(bring wages to the third world level?): - Oldman: Wages in the advanced countries MUST fall toward the level of
wages in the third world under a regime of free trade. Its the law.
This is only partially true. Wages are only one part of the equation.
The second part is living expenses. If I could buy my house for 1/10 of
the US price, pay $3 for dinner in a decent restaurant, pay 1/10 of what
I pay now for my kids’ college education, didn’t have to drive my car to
work because I could use cheap public transportation, etc.. etc.. than
yes, you can bring my wages down toward the level in the third world.
Other than that I won’t be able to survive. I was born and grew up in
Prague ( Czech ) and while making only 1/10 of wages in the US my living
standard ( though not comparable ) was not 10 times lower than in the US.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:39
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - TED, I'm bearish and on an all out sell signal. I really don't feel comfortable paying these high evaluations. It's like paying $25 for a hamburger in relation to alot of stock market values out there. No thanks!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:37
Byron @ Gold Show:>(@ Gold Show:): - Tomorrow and Wednesday, they will be having the Gold Show in Las Vegas. If anybody is in the area and attends, please pass on an nuggets. Of course, we have our own 24 hrs, 365 days a year Gold Show here at Kitco. ( ^*^ )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:30
the wizard goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - ... and the U.S. dollar is 'history' ...
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:29
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - oldman -- It's GOOD to see you back! Your statement tha Wages in the advanced countries MUST fall toward the level of wages in the third world under a regime of free trade. Its the law., is totally correct! How much better it would have been for ALL of us if it had been the other way around! But apparently, that is not to be the case. That was written when 'free trade' was implemented. Free trade puts all participants, and even those who are not signers of it but do trade, on a fast track south! I've said in the past that it is a means to boot-strap the third world countries into coming into 'twentieth century', but time is very limited as we export our own present and future wellfare away with every dollar that leaves. Unfortunately, the workers there are not recieving the kind of wages necessary to allow them to be consumers of what they make or what we make in any meaningful way. Our greatest exports have been jobs and machine tools, and only companies and governments buy machine tools. I wonder who they think they'll be exporting to in time! Henry Ford was smart enough to pay his workers wages such that they could buy what they built! Today, it's a race for the bottom. All hands man the oars!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:27
Byron @ Sleepless In PA>(@ Sleepless In PA): - I don't think DA will get much sleep tonight.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:25
aurophile *>(*): - Oldman: I am always looking for the breakpoint, the end of the road, the event which disproves the paradigm. But you are of course correct that the American worker is headed for Asian oblivion. Only US mutual fund owners will be able to support this get and spend market which in turn supports the world. Unless something changes. People make changes. What will make people change? Corruption? Injustice? Just-in-time inventory controls? Ha.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:24
Ted @kindred soul>(@kindred soul): - Cherokee: Come back!...We miss you....flux or no flux.....Good night ALL
...... - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:22
Vieserre The Chinese Refrigerator>(The Chinese Refrigerator): - OLDMAN: That law of free trade only applies to goods and services in competition, as you have stated or implied. Services, which comprise a significant portion of our GDP, is the field that has been making the most progressive gains because it does not have to compete with foreign imports. In addition, there are products as well which are excepted. As one economist puts it, how many Chinese refrigerators do you see imported into this country.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:18
Byron @ At The Tone The Time Is...>(@ At The Tone The Time Is...): - Panda: That time of 1:30 PM, are we talking Japan time?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:13
Ted Goldfinger>(Goldfinger): - Goldfinger ( 22:53 ) Do I detect a hint of bearishness on your part towards the stock market? EBN Gold down .45 and Silver down a cent...
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:12
Vieserre At the Hunt>(At the Hunt): - AUROPHILE: How is it said, possession of the rules is 9/10ths of the law.
I remember it well. A lot of coin and other dealers when down with Hunt riding on his coat tails. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:07
oldman tedot@ibm.net>(tedot@ibm.net): - aurophile and Donald: It is easy to read too much into the UPS strike. It is just as easy to read too little. What it means:1 ) The Teamsters are still a business union in the mold of John L lewis and Jimmy Hoffa. They are largely unconcerned about affirmative action, gay rights, saving the spotted owl and all the other pet issues of the political unions that make up the bulk of the AFL-CIO. The IBT is notswayed by the tears and flapdoodle of the Slick one to the point where they are going to stand still any longer while Slicks buddies ( bosses ) , Rubin, et.al., sweep all the chips off the table. 2 ) The job of the guy who delivers my Texas BarBQ to my door in Florida cannot be replaced by a coolie in China. What it does NOT mean is that American wage and salary earners are finally going to get their share of the pie. As The late great Sir James Goldsmith said in his mini opus, The Trap, from the textile worker in Carolina to the computer engineer in Silicon Valley, they live in fear of losing their job to the Asian hordes.
Wages in the advanced countries MUST fall toward the level of wages in the third world under a regime of free trade. Its the law. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:06
Byron @ Here We Go:>(@ Here We Go:): - Panda:
Is that newsconference my catalyst that I was looking for. Was just looking at the 5 minutes August Gold and the 5 minutes XAU charts at quote.com. XAU is floating up in the air and the Gold Futures flat down at hopefully support. Yes, as I like to say, Something Big This Way Cometh. Just hope its not a Mack Truck. Well, at least, I feel confident it will not be a UPS truck. We know where they all are. : ) - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:03
aurophile around the corner>(around the corner): - TOCOM has a precedent and a professor in the name of Dr. Henry Jarecki, chairman of the Comex Silver Committee in January 1980. With the Hunts and everyone else long silver and the commercials net short, the Yale psychiatrist, and principal of Mocatta, decided that enough was enough. With Paul Volcker's blessings he declared that margins were raised to astronomical levels and that one could only liquidate and not buy the nearby contract. Force majeure? Force majestic! Force.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 23:03
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Larryn: One might conclude that the clear-thinking gene is missing in that family! :- )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:59
Roebear @Miro>(@Miro): - Miro Amen indeed to your post for longer free hours = much of the productivity benefit. And it is no longer just the non exempt salaried workers but also the union workers. The team work concept has been bought into and this has waylaid the job description aspect, work rules etc. No more I have my quota in or it's not my job because those things have been done away with. While past union work rules could be abusive, the pendulum is swinging the other way fast in company's favor. The increase in work load and constant reeducation acquired of the more skilled union workers, and salaried, adds oddles to the bottom line but as the boomers age I do not know how they/we will keep up. I sure am getting more hats all the time! I do not think everyone has caught on yet but they will.
Speaking of which this indentured servant is in for a long long stretch of it. Good night all. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:59
Larryn trading volume>(trading volume): - As mentioned by George Cole, and according to my rough calculations, 11 major gold stocks ( most XAU stocks, but not including NEM or HL ) which I follow had a total trading volume today of only $24 mil. Coca Cola bottles sweat more than that. Most was by ABX and PDG, which is no surprise. If I had a spare $23 mil I could have started a bull market. Then again, if I had much to sell and wanted out, I could have dropped XAU down all by myself.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:59
Viserre Home>(Home): - BYRON: Thanks, I saw Hepcat's posts and I am still laughing about it. How about that for being resourceful ( ~;~ )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:55
Ron A Deflationist -- and definitely not a goldbug -- Speaks>(A Deflationist -- and definitely not a goldbug -- Speaks): - On The Money
Rounding first base and heading for debt
Pete Kendall
When On The Money started in January 1991, it was based on the three D's: deflation, debt and depression. All these years, and I've yet
to make it to first base.
But if you didn't know by now, I'm stubborn. I say we're going to make it to first base. In fact, I believe the markets never wavered in
their determination to deliver falling prices for goods and services, they just took the long way around to lower prices -- higher prices.
Rest of article at: http://www.amcity.com/milwaukee/stories/080497/newscolumn2.html
Ted: Clumsy wording on my part, eh? :- ) - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:55
Vieserre Thanks>(Thanks): - VRONSKY, GVC: Thanks: Vronsky, is there anything you do not know about gold or, if so, is not available at your digs. ( : ) GVC, that site you recommended looks interesting. In case you have not uncovered it, Reuters has a new commodity directed site at http://www.commods.reuters.com/index.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:53
Byron What Happened:>(What Happened:): - Gremlins!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:53
goldfinger all that glitters>(all that glitters): - WIPE OUT. Last chance to exit all paper assets. All Johnnie Come Latlelys are in the market now. Pigs make money hogs don't. Stock market pundits are waiting to squeeze every last dollar out. Bill Gates is now worth on paper a staggering 34 billion. We are living in the last days of the market. The stock charts are straight up. IPO's are an everyday event in large numbers. The crowds have gone mad and they will do the same when they finally realize they been taken, but by then it will be too late. Don't be led to slaughter. Sleep tight.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:51
Byron @ The Wizard Of Oz:>(@ The Wizard Of Oz:): - Vieserre: Don't know about finding holder of specific stocks but I have come across info about the specific holdings of mutual funds ( although it is usually months old ) . At Bart's Web Resource Links above I located two posibilities: http://www.stocksmart.com/Specialty--Prec_Metals.html and http://www.brill.com These are mutual fund sites ( one specifically for gold ) . Also you might want to check out Vronsky site. http://www.gold-eagle.com
Regards Bart's site above ( the web site ) . It's a slight mess right now. Apparently John ( hepcat ) has found a loop-hole and has been posting messages at that site as recently as Sunday. But if you want to wand on down, you might find someother sources of info. Good luck. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:51
Byron @ The Wizard Of Oz:>(@ The Wizard Of Oz:): - Vieserre: Don't know about finding holder of specific stocks but I have come across info about the specific holdings of mutual funds ( although it is usually months old ) . At Bart's Web Resource Links above I located two posibilities: http://www.stocksmart.com/Specialty--Prec_Metals.html and http://www.brill.com These are mutual fund sites ( one specifically for gold ) . Also you might wa
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:49
panda @palladium>(@palladium): - Just how does one 'manage' a market and still call it a market?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:47
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Shek: I'm here lurking. I've nothing to say at the moment.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:47
panda @>(@): - Here we go! Per D.A.s comments earlier about that 'emergency meeting';
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/04/z0009_85.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:43
Larryn de guzman>(de guzman): - If de Guzman's brother suspects that his brother may not be dead, why would he want to wake up the authorities by rechecking fingerprints?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:43
Roebear @TheUnabridgedDonald>(@TheUnabridgedDonald): - Donald Re: your 21:56, I am in awe. Whoever sent you Kitco's way God Bless ém, you are an invaluable resource.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:43
panda @>(@): - The beat goes on.... Some interesting stories here. This economy will be like this forever, or until you die. Pension funds throwing in the towel on actively managing assets, they're going to index funds.
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/pageone.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:41
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Granny -- That's the first time anybody ever called me their favorite Kitco poster. Shoot, I wouldn't call me that! I believe it is you who has the sense of humor! I don't recall posting any of that stuff myself.
Aurophile -- Perhaps UPS will relocate itself to Mexico. It can get a lot cheaper wage base there! Of course they'll have some REAL HIGH mileage delivery trucks!
'Quick everybody, and pull those oars together. We ain't made it to the bottom yet. No raises or bennies 'till we do!'
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:40
nailz LURKING..............>(LURKING..............): - Hi Gang....Just lurking.......
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:34
Roebear @Tanami>(@Tanami): - XAU now at this URL
http://www.phlx.com/xau.html
These kids are driving me batty! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:32
GVC @xau in overbought territory>(@xau in overbought territory): - Daily XAU chart w/stochastics and bollinger bands; definately in the overbought region, but still can stay that way for awhile.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:31
panda @>(@): - Something a little different, for those astronomicaly inclined.
http://www.mountwashington.org/mtw_comet.htm
TED -- Good evening, I just looked at the current weather conditions for Mt. Washington. 43 degrees F in fog. Visibility less than 100 ft. Hmmm, sort of reminds me of the current PM market. Cold, damp, and I can't see a damn thing! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:31
EB D.A.can.I.borrow.the.mongols>(D.A.can.I.borrow.the.mongols): - Together the HORDE and I will trot up the road apiece ( on horseback, of course ) and look for that HOARD of Rooskie PL. Ghengis IIVXX hasn't been out of the 'great tent' for a little action lately and he has quite a fondness for the Other White Metal...
Away...like a great, shiny platinum balooooon!
EB
...hear that fat lady? - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:28
Miro how bad it will be?>(how bad it will be?): - jklaj;fj: I would not go that far. I work on Y2K problem and know it
will bring disruption. But I don’t think that unless you keep all your
financial assets under your mattresses they will disappear. The reason
for overblown scenarios comes mostly from the frustration when not too
many people in power believe that it is a real problem. we faced many
problems before … ya ta ta … we always managed To get the attention you
need to paint some extreme ( but not impossible!! ) scenario to get their
attention. OTOH, if your bank goes under, and you have all your assets
in that institution, there is the real possibility you may loose most of
it. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:21
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Ron: Who's thumbprint is it?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:20
aurophile ^>(^): - Miro: Your point is well taken. Klinton and the DNC may have sold out to the Chinese, but there are still real people living in the US. My UPS driver has a devil of a time making it and keeping a home and family together despite hours which would defeat a 20 year old.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:20
Ted El Nino>(El Nino): - Here in the deserts of Atlantic Canada we are currently gettin our first good rain in over six weeks....Many towns in Nova Scotia had their driest July since they began keepin records.....Local farmers will get wiped out if we don't get a few days of this....looks like dem veggies will cost a lot more this fall but....we ain't got NO inflation here.....no sir eeeeee...Evenin Vieserre!....
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:18
Ron Bre-X News>(Bre-X News): - Family says thumbprint on body doesn't match Michael de Guzman's. http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100c.htm
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:18
vronsky SOROS NEM HOLDINGS>(SOROS NEM HOLDINGS): - Vieserre: My data is over two years old. At that time Soros largest holding was that of NEM. This was his private holdings, not Quantum fund.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:16
GVC @Vieserre>(@Vieserre): - VIESERRE: you might try this site: http://www.stockwiz.com
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:12
Miro strike, reward for performance, etc..>(strike, reward for performance, etc..): - Donald: It’s interesting to read the company rep. say we reward
performance not seniority I am still making my living through my gainful
employment. I am making decent money by any standards, but … to maintain
my performance I have to put in a lot more hours than a few years ago. I
am in software industry. It used to be that we had admin and technical
support staff. Well it was downsized. This mean that in addition to my
real work I have to do a lot of things which were done by support
staff, taking on tedious tasks which could be done by person making 1/5
of my salary. Do I get reprieve from my professional assignments?
Obviously not - I just need to put in more free hours. I would say
that my real hourly pay has decreased by at least 30% in the last few
years. It really irks me when spin masters and academic experts talks
about productivity increase of the US work force. I am not labor
movement advocate, my work is even not unionized, but somehow I don’t
blame the UPS teamsters. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:11
vronsky THE INTERNET'S ENCYCLOPEDIA>(THE INTERNET'S ENCYCLOPEDIA): - Donald: REF: Gold in the International Monetary Fund. Amigp Donald, you are a veritable encylopedia for the net. many thx for the URL.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:10
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:09
D.A. a.small.error>(a.small.error): - All:
Last night I posted something with regards to the open interest on the Tocom. It was reported to me incorrectly. I was off by a factor of 10. It seems that the June 98 contract which is the active Tocom Pa contract had an open interest of 33,000 contracts as of Aug 1. This represents some 1.5 million ounces of Pa. This is huge. No wonder these guys are having meetings.
As to why the active contract is June 98 and why it 'must' be closed or rolled I can not give an informative answer although I expect to know before the night is out. As I recall it has something to do with margin requirements and separating the specs from the commercials. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:09
Ted @MIRO>(@MIRO): - Miro: Sometimes my thumbs get in the way for I am just a dumb carpenter..
Know a Miro in Vermont....EBN Gold down .30 and Silver still down one centavo ( how many Baht is that? ) .....Am ramblin tonight with no idea of where gold is goin ( near term ) but still feel very comfortable in Gold shares at these prices....if one can be reasonably patient,I see little down-side risk and big potential gain....A no-brainer ( my specialty! ) .... - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:09
Vieserre home>(home): - BYRON: Since you are the expert on financial sites, where can I find for a particular stock, the major funds, institutions and other holders?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:06
aurophile %>(%): - Vieserre: GS acquired the Newmont shares from the great and recently departed Sir James Goldsmith, may he rest in peace. Sir James was the mind and heart of a leader which Europe, and indeed the world, needs
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 22:02
Vieserre home>(home): - AUROPHILE: As I recall, just prior to the 92-93 run up, Soros acquired a large interest in NEM in a private transaction from an English Financeer. A large portion of this was sold just prior to decline in gold to bring the holdings below reportable limits. I wonder how much, if any, he still has. There was a place on the Web that had a lot of this type of information, but unfortunately, I misplaced it.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - April 1997
Gold in the IMF
Before the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF in
April 1978, the role of gold in the international monetary system was central
and pervasive. The Second Amendment contained a number of provisions
which, in combination, were intended to achieve a gradual reduction of the
role of gold in the international monetary system and in the Fund. However,
gold is still an important asset in the reserve holdings of a number of
countries, and the IMF remains one of the largest official holders of gold in
the world.
Holdings of Gold
The IMF holds 3,217,341 kilograms of gold ( 103.4 million fine ounces ) at designated
depositories, valued in the IMF's financial statements at SDR 3.6 billion on the basis of SDR 35
per ounce ( except for a minor amount accepted by the Fund in 1992 in partial settlement of a
member's overdue obligations, and valued at the then-prevailing market price ) . Valued at current
market prices, the IMF's holdings amount to SDR 26.7 billion ( $36.8 billion ) . These holdings
represent the balance of the IMF's stock of gold after the gold auctions and the restitution of gold
to members in the period 1976-80. While gold is reflected as an asset in the IMF's balance sheet,
it is not used in the Fund's operations and transactions. According to Article V, Section 12 ( b ) of
the IMF's Articles of Agreement, any transactions in gold by the IMF require an 85 percent
majority of the total voting power of the IMF. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of
prevailing market prices; it may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations to the IMF
at an agreed price on the basis of prices in the market at the time of acceptance. The IMF does
not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions, e.g., loans, leases, swaps, or use of
gold as collateral, and the IMF does not have the authority to buy gold.
Gold in the Articles of Agreement of the IMF
The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the
IMF eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator
of the par value system and as the basis of the value of the
SDR. The Amendment also abolished the official price of
gold and abrogated the obligatory uses of gold in transactions
between the IMF and its members. The Second Amendment
required the Fund, in its dealings in gold, to avoid managing
its price or establishing a fixed price of gold. Under the
Amendment, members undertook to collaborate with the
IMF and other members with respect to reserve assets to
promote better international surveillance of international
liquidity.
The IMF's Policy on Gold
In 1995 the IMF's Executive Board reviewed the role of gold in the IMF and concluded that its
policy on gold should be governed by the following principles:
As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides a fundamental strength to its
balance sheet. Any mobilization of the IMF's gold should avoid weakening its overall
financial position.
Its gold holdings provide the IMF with operational maneuverability both as regards the use
of its resources and through adding credibility to its precautionary balances. In these
respects, the benefits of the IMF's gold holdings are passed on to the membership at large,
to both creditors and debtors.
The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only
for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.
The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the
gold market.
The profits from any sales of gold should be retained and only the income deriving from the
investment of those profits used for any operations that might be agreed.
Background Information
Sources of Gold
The IMF acquired virtually all its holdings of gold through four main types of transactions under the
original Articles of Agreement.
Subscriptions. The original IMF Articles of Agreement prescribed that 25 percent of initial
subscriptions and quota increases were normally to be paid in gold. This represented the
largest source of the IMF's gold.
Payment of charges. Originally, all charges, i.e. interest on members' outstanding use of
Fund credit were normally payable in gold.
Repurchases. Members were permitted--and in some circumstances could be required--to
use gold to repay the IMF for credit previously extended.
Purchases. A member wishing to obtain the currency of another member could acquire it
by selling gold to the IMF. The major use of this provision was sales of gold to the IMF by
South Africa in 1970-71.
Uses of Gold
Outflows of gold from the IMF's holdings occurred under the original IMF Articles of Agreement
through sales of gold for currency, and via payments of remuneration and interest. Sales of gold for
currency were divided as follows:
Sales for replenishment ( 1957-70 ) . In the late 1950s and in the 1960s, the IMF sold gold
on several occasions to replenish its holdings of currencies.
South African gold and mitigation. In the early 1970s, the IMF sold gold to members in
amounts roughly corresponding to the amounts purchased earlier from South Africa; it also
sold gold in connection with payments of gold for quota increases by some members, in
order to mitigate the impact of these payments on the gold holdings of reserve centers.
Investment in U.S. Government securities ( 1956-72 ) . In order to generate income to
offset operational deficits, some gold was sold to the United States and the proceeds
invested in U.S. Government securities. A significant buildup of reserves through income
from charges prompted the IMF to reacquire this gold from the U.S. Government in the
early 1970s.
Auctions and restitution sales ( 1976-80 ) . The IMF sold approximately one third ( 50
million ounces ) of its then-existing gold holdings as an outcome of an agreement by its
members to reduce the role of gold in the international monetary system. Half of this amount
was sold in restitution to members at the then-official price of SDR 35 per ounce; the other
half was auctioned to the market to finance the Trust Fund, which supported concessional
lending by the IMF to low-income countries. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:50
jklaj;fj jklajf>(jklajf): - Hello Micro,
I had a talk with a mid level insurance man of a very large national firm [US] to day regarding the y2k problem. He said from memory in 1999 make sure you get your money out of your bank ( in cash ) , pensions, insurance etc are just going to disapear.
The conversation had a sureal feel about it. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:50
Vieserre home>(home): - AUROPHILE: Thank you
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:41
aurophile $>($): - Vieserre:
The Quantum purchase of the Australian cache was, en effet, on Reuters. Friends down under with Reuters quote terminals and connections to trading desks at the larger banks noted the hedging and were told about the sale in late spring, but couldn't believe that the RBA would actually sell its gold. They therefore regarded it as an unlikely, unconfirmed rumor.
You may recall that GS was in OZ for meetings with the RBA the week of the announcement and in the wake of his Thai baht short revelation. It was no secret that Quantum was short the $AD in size and was beginning to unwind the position. As the old saying goes, believe what you see.
I am told, although I have no recollection of it, that GS entered into gold in late 1991 through Australia. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:40
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIRO: Here are more strike stories. Also, the UPS strike is getting big press in UK.
Industrial action: BT and Barclays face
threat
TUESDAY AUGUST 5 1997
By Andrew Bolger, Employment Correspondent
Two of Britain's biggest employers - Barclays and British
Telecommunications - face industrial action next week by disgruntled
employees.
Two of Barclays' banking unions are discussing a joint overtime ban, while
British Telecommunications engineers in London will stage a one-day strike
next Tuesday over the use of contract labour.
The Barclays dispute is over a new pay and grading structure, which has
already been imposed on staff.
Unifi, the union which has more than 30,000 members in Barclays, and
Bifu, which has 7,000 members, said yesterday they would discuss the
timing of a joint overtime ban after the bank turned down a request to go
to Acas, the government-funded arbitration service. A work-to-rule is also
being considered.
The BT strike will involve engineers working on phone repairs and
installation. Members of the CWU communications union voted by 1,202
to 268 in favour of industrial action. It will be followed by further action, to
be announced later.
BT expressed disappointment that its engineers had felt the need to take
industrial action. We have been having talks on the issue of contractors -
and are more than happy to keep the discussions open, it said. Our
concern will be to minimise the impact on our customers in London.
The bank unions' scope for action has been limited by the recent vote by
Unifi members in favour of action short of a strike but against a strike.
Members of Bifu voted narrowly in favour of both options.
Barclays said yesterday: The results of the ballots clearly demonstrated
that the majority of our staff do not want or support industrial action of any
kind and we are disappointed that the unions are continuing to pursue this
course of action.
Mr Iain MacLean, Unifi's assistant general secretary, said the union had
held back from launching industrial action in the hope of having fresh talks.
At no time has Barclays listened to what its staff and unions have been
saying. We have no recourse but to enter into protracted industrial action,
he added.
The unions claim that the new pay structure means that most staff will have
their pay and pension frozen for the foreseeable future, after a short
transition period.
Barclays said it rewards performance rather than how long a member of
staff has worked for the bank.
The bank insisted the new scheme did not constitute a pay freeze and that
it would encourage excellent performance.
Mr Jim Lowe, Bifu's assistant secretary, said: The talks broke down
because Barclays refused to move and refused to go to Acas.
This from a bank which is expected to announce half-year profits of more
than £1bn on Thursday.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:31
Miro Europe>(Europe): - Ted, Donald: Thanks for the reply. It crossed my mind but around 2% drop
was kind of steep. Interestingly enough London kept the index steady.
Ted: no need to be sorry. Miro is my real name and because it is so
foreign to English speaking people I've got used to anything close to
it ;- )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:29
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIRO: Here is the whole kit.
Europe: Frankfurt slides on interest rate
worries
TUESDAY AUGUST 5 1997
Worries about an upward move for German interest rates hardened on
Monday and FRANKFURT lost ground for the third session running.
In the face of a surging dollar, the money market maintained the tight
stance adopted on Friday and interest rate sensitive shares came in for
heavy selling.
At the close of electronic trading, the Dax index stood at an Ibis-indicated
4,302.50 - off 34.48 for a three-day decline of more than 3 per cent.
Dealers said the onset of the August holiday period had created thin
markets but that sentiment had nevertheless taken something of a knock
at the sight of rising bond yields.
Insurance leader Allianz retreated DM10.50 to DM445 and the banks
streamed uniformly lower.
Deutsche Bank came off DM1.40 to DM118 and Dresdner fell DM2.10
to DM80.70. Merger partners, Bayerische Vereiensbank lost DM2.50 to
DM95.70 and Bayerische Hypo DM1.30 to DM72.80.
Given the mood, even some of the big exporters were taken to task in
spite of the dollar strength. Volkswagen shed DM26.4 to DM1,371.5,
Daimler Benz DM1.55 to DM146.55 and Bayer DM1.54 to DM74.66.
AMSTERDAM initally bucked the weaker trend on European stock
markets as upbeat expectations for this week's company results buoyed
sentiment. But the AEX index failed to hold on to its morning gains,
shedding 1.39 to 979.35.
KLM gained Fl 3.40 to Fl 76.40 in active trade ahead of today's
second-quarter earnings report. Analysts said the quality of the airline's
earnings would be significantly improved.
Also due to report today is publisher Wolters Kluwer, which added Fl
10.10 to Fl 283.00 after touching a record Fl 291.70. The share has this
year underperformed the market.
Hoogovens is expected to report a rise in first-half earnings of about 30
per cent tomorrow. The steel group's share gained Fl 3.70 to Fl 138.50.
Its profits are expected to benefit from firmer steel and aluminium prices
and strong demand in the US this year after profits dipped last year.
Philips' entertainment offshoot PolyGram also rose on expectations that the
Mr Bean movie would be a success, notching up a gain of Fl 6.00 to Fl
118.
ZURICH followed Germany lower, with the SMI index losing 127.2 or
2.2 per cent to 5,771.0.
Novartis was the day's most active stock, dipping SFr74.00 to SFr2,353.
Drugs rivals Roche came off SFr365 to SFr14,260 and Clariant SFr38.00
to SFr1,090.
Banks bridled at the prospect of a German-led round of interest rate rises
across Europe. UBS, which kicks off the banks' reporting season today,
lost SFr16.00 to SFr1,668 and Credit Suisse shed SFr7.25 to
SFr196.75. SBC gave up SFr9.00 to SFr400. Among insurers,
Winterthur lost SFr18.00 to SFr1,469.
Oerlikon-Buehrle continued to suffer from negative talk following
speculation that the group was set to spin-off its shoes division, best
known for the Bally label. The shares came off SFr3.00 to SFr151.
PARIS buckled under the dollar's strength, with the CAC 40 failing to
hold above the 3,000 level in a thin market. Fears that the Bundesbank
might raise interest rates to prop up the sagging D-Mark shaved 57.03 off
the CAC 40 to 2,992.41.
Rhône-Poulenc fell sharply as investors took profits after the share's strong
surge in recent weeks, shedding FFr12.60 to FFr255.30.
Alcatel Alsthom was heavily traded for the second session running as
brokers, including Paribas, issued or reiterated buy recommendations.
Alcatel outperformed the overall market, but the shares still ended
FFr14.00 lower at FFr845.
Valeo bucked the trend by rebounding from its recent weaker levels,
gaining FFr9.00 to FFr393.
MILAN picked up where it left off on Friday with blue chips moving
lower on a broad front. Olivetti fell L13.00 to L628 after the information
technology group cut back estimate for the capital gain on the sale forecast
on the sale of its PC unit. Marzotto eased L665 to L17,314 after solid but
unexciting first-half results. The Mibtel real-time index ended off 257 at
14,438.
HELSINKI was buoyed by telecoms group Nokia's
better-than-expected first half results, released an hour before the close of
trade. The HEX index closed off its morning peaks, up 28.87 to 3,638.86.
Nokia ended at FM482, a new high, but off its FM485 intra-day peak.
STOCKHOLM had the opposite reaction to Nokia's results, as it was
pulled down by Ericsson on fears that Nokia had taken market share away
from its Swedish rival. The general index was about 0.6 per cent lower at
3,140.76 after a Skr7.5 fall in Ericsson to SKr354.
MOSCOW responded enthusiastically to the new rouble and the RTS
index ended the session with a gain of 8.11 at 518.31. The rouble move is
another sign of Russian economic restructuring. This will encourage foreign
investors, said one broker. The RTS is this year's fastest moving emerging
market index, with a gain of more than 150 per cent since January.
BUDAPEST threw off Friday's setback to break through a record high on
the BUX index which ended 106.39 ahead at 7,981.12. Oil leader MOL
surged Ft275 or 5.8 per cent to Ft4,990 with investors anticipating strong
second quarter results and reacting positively to press reports that the next
move in the group's progressive privatisation had been delayed.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:25
Shek a>(a): - Where is Puetz?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:23
Ted @Miro>(@Miro): - Sorry! Moro=Miro in Cape Breton!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:21
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIRO: This may help understand. I will look for more.
UK interest rates: Increase feared despite
slower cash growth
TUESDAY AUGUST 5 1997
By Robert Chote, Economics Editor
The level of UK interest rates is expected to be higher in the coming
months than previously anticipated, despite figures from the Bank of
England showing that the rate of growth of cash in circulation continued to
slow last month.
The value of notes and coins in circulation rose by 0.2 per cent in July after
adjusting for seasonal patterns. This cut the annual rate of increase to a
20-month low of 5.6 per cent.
However; with the Bank's monetary policy committee due to begin its
monthly deliberations on Wednesday; the financial futures markets now
expect the level of interest rates to be slightly higher in the coming months
than previously anticipated. Base rates are expected to be about 7.5 per
cent at the end of the year compared to 6.75 per cent at present.
Most economists expect the committee to raise rates by a quarter-point for
the fourth successive month on Thursday. This would take base rates to
their highest level since the aftermath of sterling's departure from the
European exchange rate mechanism in 1992. But some analysts predict
either no change this month or a rise of half a point or more.
On the face of it, the cash in circulation figures suggest retail sales may
have slowed following the surge in June fuelled by building society
windfalls. But the relationship between the two sets of data has been
conspicuously poor in recent months, with sales accelerating and the rate
of growth in circulating cash slowing down.
Including banks' balances at the Bank of England and cash, the narrow
money supply measure M0 rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 per cent in
July. This reduced the annual rate of increase to 5.9 per cent, the same as
in April but above the 4 per cent ceiling of the Treasury's monitoring
range.
Mr John O'Sullivan, economist at NatWest Markets, said the sharp
pick-up in high street sales in May and June was driven by borrowing
rather than cash. We will get a clearer picture with the Confederation of
British Industry's retailers' survey on Thursday, he said. The weakness of
the narrow money figures is also in marked contrast to the latest consumer
confidence data. GfK's monthly survey shows sentiment at its highest level
since 1988.
Before making its decision on interest rates, the monetary policy committee
may consider today's industrial production figures for June. These are
expected to show modest growth in manufacturing following a dramatic
decline in May.
Most economists believe May's 1.1 per cent drop in factory output
overstated the weakness of the sector. The high exchange rate is hitting
export order books, but buoyant domestic demand appears to be
compensating.
However, a bigger than expected increase in rates could push sterling
towards its recent highs of just above DM3.08.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:21
Ted @europe>(@europe): - ....and good old profit takin...
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:20
Roebear @Tanami>(@Tanami): - HUI now XAU later:
The AMEX Gold BUGS ( Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks ) Index represents a modified equal dollar weighted portfolio of 13 major gold mining companies. Options trading on the Index are designed to give investors exposure to near-term movements in gold prices reflected in the share prices of gold mining companies that do not hedge their production for extensive periods into the future - i.e., those with a hedging ratio of less than 11/2 years production.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:20
Ted @Miro>(@Miro): - Moro ( 21:11 ) Fear of interest rate increases.....Especially in Germany and Great Britain....
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:19
D.A. no.mongols.just.metals>(no.mongols.just.metals): - All:
No, we don't have an enslaved clan of Mongols, that was hoard not horde. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:14
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Gold in the International Monetary Fund.
http://www.imf.org/external/np\exr\facts\gold.htm - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:12
Vieserre home>(home): - D.A. Thanks for the comments. Appreciate it
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:11
Miro What is happening in Europe?>(What is happening in Europe?): - Somebody already asked the question but nobody answered it.
Is there any significance ( and what is the reason ) for today's across
the board drop in European stock markets? - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:10
D.A. as.EB.would.say.....away!!>(as.EB.would.say.....away!!): - All:
Another limit up move on the Tocom for Pa. Spot Pa has said bye, bye to the 240 level. Last quote I got was 244 bid at 248. The quotes are starting to widen out a little but the backwardation isn't budging. It looks like the buying in the spot market is fund related. So far the commercials haven't blinked. It could be that Tiger fund is making a point.
Just to test the market I sold a few thousand ounces of our horde and it was snapped up without so much as a ripple. The TOCOM is preparing to have a meeting. Things are getting interesting. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:09
vronsky PLATINUM UP $17 & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT>(PLATINUM UP $17 & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT): - Historically, when Platinum boasted a premium of $100 over gold ( now greater than $131 ) , it heralded a subsequent GOLD rally. Read RJ's apropos charts & comments: RJ Platinum Factor: http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/RJ01.html -
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:09
Vieserre home>(home): - AUROPHILE: I missed that announcement on the SOROS PURCHASE. When did that occur, was it on Reuters?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:08
RJ SA PL>(SA PL): - DJ
I had an interesting meeting with the Platinum Guild International a couple weeks ago. Regarding South African producers being hedged:
There is a rather complicated formula for platinum deliveries to Japan, but almost all of the next five years platinum production in South Africa is already sold to the Japanese auto and jewelry industries. Although this metal is effectively already purchased, the delivered price is not inelastic. This is one reason the Russian deliveries would seem to play a more important role than the 15% - 17% of total production which these supplies represent.
There is no real lid on platinum prices. The use of platinum is quite small on a per product basis - excepting jewelry - that the price of platinum could double without significant price increases in the final products.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:07
Ted @early returns>(@early returns): - At what else is new: EBN Gold is down .20 and Silver down one centavo....
Was out for the day but it looks like I didn't miss much on the gold front....In the olden days Platinum+Palladium would have pulled it up by its boot-strings....not stangled it!....This is a new era folks.....stox will go up 70% a year ( world wide ) and everythin will be right with the world....Beemers will abound....Trickle down will trickle....posessions will be king and we'll ALL be soooo happy...Until some terrorist Blows us up.....Could THEY try to derail the mighty Dow?
I must be like Jerry Ford.....can't have the headphones on ( blarin ) and think.......Why think? - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:07
Miro UPS strike may change the trend>(UPS strike may change the trend): - Donald: your If the strike goes on for long enough there will be
earnings worries. is just a part of the story. It may finally change
the trend of no inflation coming from stagnant wages with economists
not able to explain why. Strike at UPS may be a turning point and a big
surprise for management thinking in line of we've got wages under
control
I am with AUROPHILE on this issue.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 21:05
Plaintalker @>(@): - All: Anyone with an interest in options on any commodity the following is a must-- http://www.cyberramp.net/~chrismc/futopt.htm You will find a lead in to another site ( now under construction ) with option probabilities for succesful trades.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:58
vronsky THE DINES LETTER - LOOMING CURRENCY CRISIS August 4, 1997>(THE DINES LETTER - LOOMING CURRENCY CRISIS August 4, 1997): - Well-known Analyst cites potpourri of currency comments from world-acclaimed sources. Dines also says those blindly bullish on stocks are like the Italian proverb: “He who knows nothing, doubts nothing.”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:51
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: WOW! Tell Gunrunner to get you an AK-47, a couple of bandoliers and a red bandana. ( Just kidding. )
Deflation is the best solution. A good old fashioned Depression will set everything right and get us a gold standard. At this point the whole world is on autopilot and nothing any of us do or say can stop it. Some of us old timers have to make it through to show them how to put the pieces back together. Relax. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:47
aurophile #>(#): - I have lost my note on how many tonnes of gold the RBA sold to Soros, but I recall calculating it at $1.8 billion at the announcement. That translates into 50,000 Comex contracts,which is little more than a day's volume, but a lot of open interest. I note than the o.i. has dropped from 220,000 a few weeks ago to 184,000 Friday. Someone isn't rolling into December. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:46
Ted Earl>(Earl): - Hi Earl!....Missive received.....Swami sent back all-knowing answers....
Let's all chant....ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..... - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:43
Byron @ Looking For A Catalyst Or On The Road To Nirvana:>(@ Looking For A Catalyst Or On The Road To Nirvana:): - The daily and weekly charts on the Gold Indexes, Neumont and the gold futures appear to be positioned to be moved by some catalytic action or event ( s ) . Another day like today by platinum, paladium, crude oil and the CRB index might do it.... The dominoes are falling in place chart wise and economically/politically also. Workers of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your inflated 401k stock plans. ( Gosh, I hope this doesn't get me into all kinds of politically incorrect trouble. ) : ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ( just in case. )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PANDA: Thanks for the post about Russia and the new currency. Two thoughts. If this works a lot of US currency will be repatriated to home.
The other thought is that Russia now must have a hard currency to survive. Gold convertability would be a political masterstroke. If any country has learned the lesson the hard way it is Russia. In 1917 they captured the Royal Family treasury, that was gone by 1940 so on to the Baltic states for more. During the war US cash got them through until 1945 when they looted all of eastern Europe. That ran out in 1989 and they may have seen the light by now. They could end up being better capitalists than the west. They sure know what doesn't work. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:35
aurophile @>(@): - Now if the Teamsters can just get Soros/Quantum to lift their hedge on their Aussie ( RBA ) gold purchase........ I can see it now. Goldbugs on the picket line...LOL!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:25
D.A. backwardation.and.lending>(backwardation.and.lending): - Vieserre:
High levels of backwardation induce physical holders to lend into the market. Often commercial users have a bit more inventory around than they need. If they can earn a large enough amount of money by loaning the metal to the market they will do so thus easing a short squeeze. The current run in Pa is different than the first one in that the backwardation is much lower. Since most of these runs end in huge backwardations with no physical available, it would appear that there is more excitement to come. The lack of backwardation also is very meaningful for the Pa and Pl producers. The market is starting to say that we are reaching new price levels that are going to be around for a while. This should be very good news for the producers. If the prices stay up, even the worst hedgers will have no choice but to get good prices. Tonight will be telling in the Far East. If we can get out over 240, some real fun might ensue. The retail shorts are getting smashed and most have no way out in the spot market so they will be gored right to the top.
Gold may move after the PGM's have had a downward correction. I believe that RJ is not alone in the long something short gold trade. When profit taking time comes in on the long something side, so will it be time to lift the gold hedge. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:23
aurophile `>(`): - Donald: In fact, the whole just-in-time/ no inventory/ cheapo/outsizing/ import/ screw-the-worker/ automation/ disinflation scenario is coming to its final scene. The Kondratieff cycle is coming to Klinton-land. Just as British workers rejected Churchill in 1945 and returning American soldiers said NO WAY so too are the beleaguered workers of the West about to do an about face. Those who know me would not mistake me for a Laborite, but I see the devastating lives that many face in this land, working 80 hour weeks for part time pay with no bennies, while the Klintonostra stock market sizzles. If they haven't been totally brainwashed and emasculated by their Democratic party handlers, the working people of this country--there actually are a few left--are going to blow Klinton out of the saddle. Deflation? No way! Except for stocks and bonds. 1929? No sir. 1946!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:22
2 Whats ups doc>(Whats ups doc): - UPS is the tangible expression of economic cyberspace.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:22
nomercy Thailand-Foreign Banks seek assurance>(Thailand-Foreign Banks seek assurance): - Thailand has US$90 billion in foreign debts - 70% of which have
been accumulated by the private sector. Of the total amount,
40% are short-term loans.
They wanted the assurance, Gen Chavalit said, after meeting
with 24 bank executives led by association chairman David
Proctor, senior vice president and country manager of Bank of
America.
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/0408_news01.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:21
tanami @XAU, HUI>(@XAU, HUI): - would apreciate anyone posting some info on what the Xau and Hui
are? is one unhedged and the other hedged? - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:09
vronsky THE RED BARON (Part - II)>(THE RED BARON (Part - II)): - Central Bank Gold Reserves Data is this week’s theme with startling revelations about the Fed’s not too profitable operations. Big income from Gold Call sales:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron801.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:04
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold index at 25.32 ounces.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:01
aurophile ~>(~): - Donald: I agree on UPS strike significance for all the earnest just-in-time folk. Management is trying the 14 year old Ronnald Reagan approach to strike threats, which was good for its time and bought us the 80's and 90's, but that was then and this is now. If the union management isn't bought off by the DNC or Slick or the Chinese or whoever--and God knows they CAN be bought--this could be a watershed event. This will tell us more about inflation and deflation prospects--or the depth of official corruption--than 100 BLS releases.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 20:01
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Hughes and Michalski: You wrote: Creating new forms of money involves two steps: inventing a suitable technology, then persuading society to use it as money.
And when persuasion is no longer possible? What's next? .... Historically, Gold has required no persuasion. It also requires no government department to regulate it or determine its value. For several thousand years it has seemed to do that very well 'its own self'. .....
Unfortunately, the bankers can't make any money in the process. Therein lies the problem. .......... If democracies need money and bankers have money; how then will the system be determined? Whose needs will be served And who will be persuaded and/or coerced? The bankers
Please revisit posts from our esteemed site historian, 6pak, for additional details on the essential and fundamental conflict. Several fine examples are available today for your reading pleasure. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:59
vronsky FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS - July 30 Report>(FOR SHORT-TERM STOCK MARKET TRADERS - July 30 Report): - CNBC analyst celebrity predicts a sharp decline in stocks within next 60 days - although he is bullish longer-term. See INGER LETTER FORECAST:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/inger730.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:51
Donald @Home>(@Home): - This UPS strike could cause a change in psychology. Many companies use the Kanban style of just in time delivery and use UPS to implement it. I think the weakness in Compaq and Dell today was UPS related. If the strike goes on for long enough there will be earnings worries.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:39
Byron @ Signing Plus 5?:>(@ Signing Plus 5?:): - Here is a late story from Yahoo re: Clinton's signing of the tax bill tomorrow. One part indicates that he has 5 days AFTER signing to ACT. I interpret this to mean that once the tax is sign-off on he can then make deletions using his line item veto up to five days after the signing or up to next Monday. Uncertainty still prevails. URL is http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970804/politics/stories/veto_2.htm
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:32
DJ Recent news on Rustenburg>(Recent news on Rustenburg): - Annual earning for Anglo American Platinum Corp Ltd ( AAPJ.J ) should be posted this week.
Analysts predict ( rough average of ranges mentioned ) :
Rustenburg: $2.12 vs $3.14
Potgietersrust: $1.04 vs $1.16
Lebowa: $.03 vs $.05
Overall: $1.74 vs. $1.90
PGM prices and Rustenburg strike listed as main reasons for decline.
Dividend will not be affected, even may be higher than last year’s $1.20
Anglo American is planning on divesting itself of diamond holdings, and merging the three platinum producers under Rustenburg.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/01/dbrsy_rpa_1.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:32
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Philippine proposal for tax on foreign currency deposits.
http://www.philstar.com/site/Preview/assets/cgi_bin/nph-general.cgi?j04_aug4&BUS1 - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - BW ( 17:39 ) : Scary thoughts but very much in line with my own. It will be a time when all pretense will be cast to the wind and conceivably, it could herald, the beginning of a new dark age. ......... but my congental pessimism is so profound as to not admit the existence and influence of mitigating factors.
BB Fisher might offer the internet as a countervailing force for individual liberation. While presently true, it would seem to me that such a tool is unbearably dependent on technology and minimally civilized conduct for its continued existence. Governments possess only one tool. A hammer. It naturally follows that we will all look like nails. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:27
Vieserre Don't Mess With Venezuela>(Don't Mess With Venezuela): - DONALD: KRY may have bitten off more than it can chew.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:27
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hi Byron: Thanks, I will be looking for it.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:27
Vieserre Don't Mess With Venequela>(Don't Mess With Venequela): - DONALD: KRY may have bitten off more than it can chew.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:23
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Venezuela: Go-ahead for gold mine project
MONDAY AUGUST 4 1997
By Raymond Colitt in Caracas
Placer Dome, the Canadian mining company, has pushed ahead with the
long-delayed development of one of Latin America's largest gold mines,
opening the way for a possible wave of international investment in
Venezuela's mining sector.
Placer Dome and its partner, CVG, the state industrial holding company,
have begun a $600m two-year development plan with construction work
at the Las Cristinas gold mine, 750km south-east of Caracas.
The Canadian company, which has a 70 per cent stake in Las Cristinas,
received an environmental permit and an important tax exemption on
Saturday.
Several other mining companies will also receive environmental permits this
week, a requirement that has held them up for years, according to Mr
Jorge Neher, a legal adviser to the industry.
The moves signal the government's determination to reduce red tape and
legal insecurity in the sector.
According to Mr Fred Drew, president of BHP Venezuela, up to $4bn
could pour into the mining sector in the short term. Mr Elías Nadim Ynaty,
president of the CVG, expects at least three big mining companies to begin
developing mines with 3m-6m ounces of gold reserves by 1998.
We believe other serious, international investors will find opportunities
here to be part of what promises to be a fascinating growth story, said Mr
William Hayes, president of Placer Dome Latin America.
Las Cristinas will eventually account for 10 per cent of Placer Dome's
world output. The company expects to recover 80-85 per cent of the
mine's proven, recoverable gold reserves, recently increased to 11.8m
ounces, at a production cost of less than $200 per ounce. At a rate of
450,000 ounces of gold per year, the mine will produce for more than 20
years.
The project had been further delayed by a rival claim to the rights of Las
Cristinas by Canadian mining company Crystallex.
The Venezuelan supreme court rejected the Crystallex claim to Las
Cristinas' gold rights on July 15 but agreed to review its claims to the
mine's copper deposits. Placer Dome and government officials are
confident, expecting a ruling in their favour within weeks.
Following a meeting with the head of the supreme court last week, Mr
John Willson, president of Placer Dome, said: The risk is low enough for
us to go ahead with this project.
Mr Elías Nadim confirmed CVG's legal action against Crystallex: Those
that dare to harm the image of Venezuela as a country able to attract
foreign investment will have to pay the consequences.
Placer Dome
Placer Dome
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:21
C.V. Compton Shaw cvshaw@prodigy.net>(cvshaw@prodigy.net): - If the XAU rallies tomorrow and stays near it's high during the whole day, that would be extremely bullish short term; however, if the XAU rallies strongly then fades back to near it's opening level, that would be bearish. If there is little change in the range of the XAU tomorrow, that would be mildly bullish short term.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:14
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Donald: Just discovered that Y.Auger's next update is scheduled to be August 9th. I assume he is on one of his frequent business road trips.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:09
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Granny, Panda, and Eldo: My goodness what faux pas. Eldo is Granny's favorite. Not Panda. ....... But it should be Panda. ... :- ) )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:08
Lucky43 Lucky43@rocketmail.com>(Lucky43@rocketmail.com): - GLOBAL ASSETS:GLO.V
Junior Gold Stocks appear to be on a rebound as the VSE index starts to
recover. 2 back to back days of market strenght saw a lot of junior golds
put 10-20% increases on their values. GLS Global Assets, our Bolivian Gold
Play, closed this week at $2.70 up from last week's close of $2.15. As
investors start to reposition themselves, we hope to see Global continue
its upward momentum. GlS Global has recently announced that they have 75%
of a unique property 1 1/2 hours south of La Paz know as Cable Mountain. It
has been reported that the Cable Mountain claims contain 14 large quartz
veins on just 1 portion of the property and that many more untested quartz
outcroppings exist across the entire structure. GLS has also tied up two
more neighboring claims as it appears the Cable mountain structures run
deep into the adjoinig properties. A major trenching program across the
base of the first 14 veins will commence in a few weeks. Positive results
will ultimately lead to an immediate drilling program. The major question
that the world is asking is who and where will the next world class gold
discovery take place. Remember that the last 'true' world class discovery
came from Peru which was a 1 billion dollar find at Ariquipa. It is
felt by the mining community that the south american countries like Peru,
Bolivia and Chile will host many more world class discoveries. On August
9th 1997 the first personnel from GLS Global and Canadian Bolivian
Resources return to Bolivia to start the undertaking of exploring Cable
Mountain.
For more information,phone Thor Gauti IR person 1-800-792-3834 in Vancouver - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Vieserre: Pay the bill In today's world? Don't be foolish. :- ) They owe it to me. ..... Granny, back me up on that. Will you?
On the other hand, Thurs was the end of July. You don't think...? Nah! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 19:00
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Granny: You silver tongued devil, you. Ya got m' glasses so steamed it's difficult to respond. Whew! Paroxysmal tachicardia, here we come. ....... Panda; I always knew there was something special about you but it took Granny to point it out. .... :- ) )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:43
Vieserre home>(home): - EARL: Do you suppose if you paid your bills that it would help ( :0 )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:32
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Panda: Please email me the details of you data service and R/T software. I haven't had any data service from BMI since last Thurs. The irritation level is rising. .... Of course their phone system is inaccessible.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:29
Hughes & Michalski The root of all evil>(The root of all evil): - Money itself is not a technology. Various technologies implement money and thus become a form of money, but these are not themselves money. Specie ( gold and silver ) , coins, book entries, paper bank notes, digital automation and smart cards all act as money, but no single one can lay claim to being money itself.
Even gold is not money itself, but rather its preeminent example. Gold is
not currently money in the US, for example. You can't take a Krugerrand
to your local Sears and buy a washing machine with it. Gold is also
useful for jewelry, dental work and circuit boards. Gold has value as
money only when people agree that it is money.
Money itself is a social fiction, like property, political parties,
governments, gender and marriage. As a specific example, a corporation
is a legal fiction. The socially fictive nature of money is key to
understanding its transfer. Social fictions are real, even though they
exist only in people's heads. When money moves across electronic
networks, no substance called money is in motion. What is in motion is
knowledge about rearrangements of money.
Money is ultimately a communications process. Any technology that
implements a conserved and transferable quantity is usable as money.
The physical properties of gold satisfy these two sufficient properties
of money; therefore, gold works as money. These sufficient properties
are also design criteria. Creating new forms of money involves two
steps: inventing a suitable technology, then persuading society to use it
as money.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:28
Donald @Home>(@Home): - No tax waivers or loan forgiveness for ailing Pakistan companies. ( stocks down 2.36% last night in Pakistan )
http://www.brecorder.com/ - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:20
Vieserre A Note To RJ in Passing>(A Note To RJ in Passing): - RJ: I can relate to your trading and to your abode. You have a keen mind, quick wit and the courage and resolve of conviction, all of which I admire in a person and I have learned much from your posts I tried short-term trading but the stress, daily commitment and my personality mitigated against it, but I have empathy from where you are coming from. I used to live on my yawl docked at a private moor across the bay with a daily trip to Belboa ( sp ) on the ferry. I suppose things are different now, but in the evenings with a slight fog in the air, Belboa changed into a magical place.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Brazil needs foreign money to finance defecit and avoid devaluation. ( Brazil stocks down 1.98% today )
http://200.246.213.8/gmnoti.htm#not5 - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:17
Vieserre Thanks>(Thanks): - GUNRUNNER: Thanks for the compliment, but I regret to read of your decision not to post. I hope it is only temporary.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:16
panda @>(@): - 2 -- Fiat money is, Full faith and credit money. There is no specie behind it! To be a little clearer, it's only paper backed by a promise to pay in paper. :- ) )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:14
Vieserre Gold as a Portfolio Diversifier>(Gold as a Portfolio Diversifier): - IMO, an economic analysis of the gold market clearly demonstrates that gold prices are determined by a number of factors. Mine production, fabrication demand, and the recovery of gold from scrap all influence prices. Much greater influence is exerted by trends in central bank sales. Most important, of all, are trends in investment demand.
Investors buy gold for any number of reasons. Some of the more important ones include gold's role as an inflation hedge, gold's usefulness as a currency hedge, as a commodity, and gold's role in portfolio diversification. I have previously posted my opinion on these former topics. I would like to now give my take on portfolio diversification.
The more assets each speculator places in a market, the greater his risk, and consequently the more likely the market will incur a greater degree of volatility. For example, if an investor places only 10% of his money in a market, he does not incur much risk and he is unlikely to withdraw his funds except for compelling circumstances. Thus the market is fairly stable. However, if he places 100%, or more if highly leveraged, his risk becomes enormous. And the greater such risk, the more anxious he will become to withdraw money. Thus, the market becomes more volatile because of it. And as more such speculators enter the market, the greater the market volatility and this in turn increases the inherent risk and volatility in the market, particularly if these speculators are on one side of a transaction.
This increase in volatility is currently being witnessed in the DOW and to some extent in the gold futures market. So what, you say, how does this trivia affect gold? As this volatility and risk increase in the general market, which it is likely to do, the greater the probability that an investor will be encouraged to seek a safer less volatile investment. And this is where gold and gold equities may enter the picture. One of gold’s traditional roles has been its use as a portfolio diversifier. And interest by investors in gold for this purpose, as mentioned, should increase with volatility in the DOW; particularly if gold equities can remain relatively stable in price as they have been for some time and gold fails to break.
A second related reason for portfolio diversification is to protect against a possible market correction. If the market corrects because of deflation, as pointed out by others on this forum, investing in low yielding bonds may not be attractive, particularly if there is a concern of repayment, nor will investment in dropping RE values. However, if financial assets fall faster than gold, gold will appear to be rising in price ( Einstein's, aka Donald's, theory of financial relativity ) and thus may make it attractive. If the market corrects because of inflation or currency fears, the outcome vis a vie gold is self-explanatory.
What I find encouraging to suggest that more investors may be beginning to value gold as a portfolio diversifier is the relative strength of the XAU; and, unlike before, money appears to be flowing into the majors when it appears the stock market is in danger of correcting.
Just some regenerated thoughts for consumption and comment.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:12
DJ Strike>(Strike): - RJ - Thanks for mentioning that. I knew about the strike and should have mentioned it myself. IMHO, with all the mines closing and threatening to close in S. Africa, I can't imagine that there is a shortage of eager labor. This could make it difficult for NUM to take a tough stance. Also, only the refinery is on strike. Impala's price really didn't get hit with news of the strike. On the other hand, neither RPATY and IMPAY have moved significantly with the price of platinum. Both relatively dead. Perhaps this indicates they have hedged as well. Do you ( or anyone else ) have any knowledge of this?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:11
panda @the.beat.goes.on!>(@the.beat.goes.on!): - UPDATING RUSSIA'S YELTSIN ANNOUNCES REDENOMINATION OF RUBLE
--Updating throughout--
Moscow-Aug. 4-FWN/UPI--RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN
has announced the redenomination of the ruble on Jan. 1.
A statement issued by the presidential press service
said the decision to drop three zeros from the ruble has
been made because inflation has been brought under control.
Yeltsin said Russia now controls money circulation and
inflation. He said prices are stable and the country will
now carry out money reform.
The new ruble will drop three zeros, meaning the rate
of exchange will change from 5,800 rubles to 5.8 rubles to
the dollar.
The new bank notes will replace old rubles over 1998,
and the kopeck coins will also be reintroduced.
Yeltsin is stressing this will be a calm exchange
of old bank notes for new ones rather than a confiscatory
measure, as has been the case in the past.
He said, We wish to avoid stress and problems. We will
calmly replace old money with new money without any
restrictions.
08/04/97 07:44:49
Copyright 1997 by Futures World News
All Rights Reserved. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:09
2 to BW>(to BW): - I share your expectation, generally. Have you ever seen such a strong economy with people so nervous? Nobody seems to really believe in this thing. We are like children playing with the hose in the back yard when we know very well that whoever turned the water on is going to be in big trouble when Dad looks out the window. Having a good time, in a nervous kind of way. This is why I am in gold, and losing my shirt. Because this thing absolutely cannot last! I repeat, it cannot last! Continuing my metaphor, true economic prosperity would feel more like children playing in the rain in the back yard. I can't remember anything much more fun than that from my childhood.
I am not familiar with the term fiat currency, which I assume means paper money backed by something tangible, such as gold, silver, or the foreskins of Philistines. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PANDA: Thanks. I had noticed the closing prices were unusual but was not sure what it meant. I watch Compaq & Dell for signs of exuberance and they were very subdued today. A broken twig here, an overturned stone there, pretty soon you find the BIG BEAR in the forest.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:04
Vieserre Backwardation and Lending>(Backwardation and Lending): - D.A. Thank you for the continuing insightful reports. I am puzzled however by your recent comment that due to backwardation, more lending is coming into the market. Why is that, as I would think the opposite would occur.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 18:00
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Problems at Korean brokerage houses.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0805/m0805b04.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:58
panda @>(@): - Donald @16:19 -- 'Normally', ( whatever that means! ) the SPX ( S&P 500 cash index ) trades at about a twelve - fifteen to one ratio to the Dow point wise. So if the SPX goes up 1 point, the Dow would be expected to move somewhere between twelve and fifteen points in the same direction. The 'divergence' that I'm talking about is when the SPX goes up or down several points and the Dow goes in the opposite direction OR the 'normal' ratio between the two is broken. The only explanation that I think of ( I haven't looked in to it yet ) is the components of each index. The SPX index must have more than a few of the heavyweight tech issues in it, where as the Dow doesn't have those issues. As a result ( I think ) , when the tech are booming the SPX gets dragged up and the Dow is left behind. One conclusion that could be drawn from this is money flow. If there isn't enough money to buy all of your favorite toys... then you have make some choices. The interesting point is, that you don't have enough money to buy all of your favorite toys.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:57
Ronald Reagan usprez@retired.com>(usprez@retired.com): - Why I am in gold, taken from
http://www.ifcstocks.com/editor.html of July 7 1997:
( First, the bad part: )
The gold price fell below $325 an ounce on Friday, its lowest in 12 years, after news that the Australian central bank has sold a substantial potion of its gold reserve. The Reserve Bank of Australia contends that it has no need to retain 20% of its reserves in gold as a form of contingency. Estimations are that it currently costs central banks the world over $15B per annum in lost income when compared with returns possible in alternate interest-bearing investments. The aforementioned sale was viewed by investors as confirmation that central banks are easily tempted to sell their gold reserves in order to gain greater liquidity and access to instruments promising greater short term returns. Since gold's all time high of $850 on January 21/80, other alternative investments ( i.e. derivatives ) have taken its place to provide 'safe havens' against turbulent economies in the new global marketplace.
( continuing the same article, the good part: )
Mind you, when it comes to 'nuts and bolts time' again ( and it will - it's only a matter of time - and more than likely ( barring any unforseen international catastrophe ) 'time' will be years, as opposed to months ) the rush will, naturally be to the conventional gold, if for no other reason than that it can be stashed away in sock and still retain its value. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:48
Jack DIV yILD & Price/Book>(DIV yILD & Price/Book): - Donald & Roebear: merci boucoup, mon ami
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean business cuts back.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0805/m0805b02.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:44
Ted @Donald and Tort>(@Donald and Tort): - Donald ( 7:26 ) ;Tort ( 8:05 ) So that's where the rumour started.....BBL!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:39
Ted @mikesheller>(@mikesheller): - Hi Mike ( 8:35 ) Thanks for the thought but my reference to Natal Day is the name of the civic holiday today in CANADA....Am 47 for 26 more days!Just got in and looks like I didn't miss much in the Gold action but Palatinum+Palladium soared again....BBL...din...din..time...
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:39
bw Deflation as an outcome:>(Deflation as an outcome:): - The world is in a unique position as we head into the bursting of our financial bubble. With the possible exception of the SF all currencies are fait. We have never commenced a world-wide economic depression with only fiat currencies. In my opinion the aftermath of the depression will also be unique, all currencies will go to zero value as will all other unbacked paper. Thus monetary deflation as an outcome or accompaniment of the depression, as the 1930s, where the dollar increased in value relative to most things, will not happen this time. The dollar will cease to exist at some point.
Prior to the dramatic events leading to the vaporization of the dollar, in my opinion, monetary inflation as a process is most probable. But it need not occur and monetary deflation is also possible. In either case at some point economic demand begins to fail and the depression begins. In my view the only assets to survive this series of events will be things, with gold and silver once again money.
This is the outcome I hope for. If we come out with a new fiat currency it will most likly be implemented by a totalitarian government. This new gov will need to keep most of us in line and as there will be no carrots left ... . - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:38
2 USA today chart>(USA today chart): - Lurker - Note that they just changed that chart from August delivery to December delivery ( for some reason ) . Speaking of market-to-book ( or price to book ( P/B ) , either way a statistic that is considered less important than it used to be due to corporate restructuring and stock repurchases muddling its significance ) , who would like to guess what the S&P P/B was in July 1982 ( it is now approx 4.8 ) . Ok times up. 0.98. Well, what was the highest it ever got before the 1982-present bull? I have no idea.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:33
George Cole low volume>(low volume): - Gold stock volume very low again. Until trading activity picks up a lot, there will be no upside breakout.
ARK: You could be right about a final gold shakeout. Gold's failure to follow the whites higher did provide advance warning of the early July drop and the yellow's failure to follow the whites up today could portend a rerun.
Two pieces of advice. Don't bet the family farm. And don't get too greedy if the price goes your way. Because we will be going a lot higher before long even if new lows are made first.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:27
Roebear @ROTFLOL>(@ROTFLOL): - Donald: Am I to be always a minute late and a nickel short? ( Judging by my trading - yes ) I believe we are beginning to look like bookends! I've got to go BBQ for a bunch of hungry teenagers, daughters birthday party, BBL : )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:23
Roebear @Roger, Donald>(@Roger, Donald): - Donald: Agreed
Roger: see this URL for some books on El Nino, have not read any yet.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/gcg/RTN/RTN.bib.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:22
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROGER BUDGELL: Yesterday there was a post by Steve-Perth who posted a site run by a Stan Deyo. I have this temp map that shows el nino. It takes a few minutes to load.
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/otis/otis_glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:16
lurker @home>(@home): - Is something wrong with
http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.htm
?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:06
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROEBEAR: It would be better if the Dow headed south and gold headed north without an event. My reasoning would be that a those Dow geniuses, after careful and exaustive research, determined that gold had the better future at these prices. Fat chance!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 17:04
aurophile !>(!): - WhoCares: Your 0108 post is fascinating. The one on COI ( cost of information ) and the similarity between the railroad industry in the 1890's and the information industry now. My grandfather worked in that industry ( railroads ) all this life and told me of the declines whehn I ws a child. Plus which I am a western US history buff and have seen the maps and railroad towns of the west in the 1880's and 1890's. You could literally go anywhere anytime on the railroad in those days. ( Sounds like the internet, eh? ) IPO's abounded and capital sloshed into the industry. Until the early 1890's...
The Dow transports have only recently surpassed their 1906 inflation-adjusrted levels. hmmmmm. http://cpcug.org/user/invest/djtcon.gif
Tell us more!!!!!!!!!! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:59
roger budgell roger.budgell@canada.cdev.com>(roger.budgell@canada.cdev.com): - Donald,Byron,Richard Burke,Nick@aussi: Can anyone tell me a good book ,for a layman, Readers Digest level to read WRT the el nino. Apparently the 1980 el nino had quite an effect on the world wide weather. Interest rate were at 20%, Gold went to $850. Inflation obviously skyrocketted.
My 'e' is good so if someone would like to send me some info i would be greatly appreciatived.
Sincerely, Roger
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:57
Roebear @IBD>(@IBD): - Donald, my figures are from Investors Business Daily. IBD likes to do some things a bit different from WSJ/Barrons but I did not expect these figures to be different. In any case, I defer my figures to your figures any day of the week. Besides, beat me by a minute!; ) )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:57
Granny Watching the 21>(Watching the 21): - Eldorado, I just want you to know that last night on the NBC news there was a story about the Eldorado mine in Alaska. Tourists can pan for gold and sell what they find right on the spot! Now, Eldorado, you are my favorite Kitco poster, I'm being very forward here. You have a way about you that reminds me of my great-uncle Harold Gathers who passed away in 1940. He was a very wise man with strong opinions and a sense of humor who influenced those around him without trying to. And while I am just being so crazy, Earl, you are my second-favorite! Good night all and I enjoy this site so much, so please keep up the good work.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:56
RJ Long Platinum, Silver, short Gold.>(Long Platinum, Silver, short Gold.): - D.J. @ 12:23
RSA - Impala ( IMPAY ) on strike today. You might want to hold off on this until the labor picture is more clear.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:51
Roebear panda>(panda): - Thanks for the great swc chart. As for questions how about Has the last sucker gotten on the USS DOW Titanic? OR who will get to drink the bottle of Rothschild and toast the rest of us RIP as the last goldbug still extant in the Brave New World Paradigm? Where the H**l is an exogenous event when you need one! Are they like cops?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - JACK, ROEBEAR: This is the same info for the S&P 500.
P/E Ratio 23.54, Div. Yield 1.63%, Mkt to book 482.10% Friday, Barron's - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:44
6pak Acceptance @ Nothing = Something, thing>(Acceptance @ Nothing = Something, thing): - The National Bank Act of 1864, which was the determining fiancial
authority of the United States until November,1914, did not permit banks
to lend their credit. Consequently, the power of banks to creat money was
greatly limited. We did not have a bank of issue, that is, *a central
bank*, which could create money. To get a *central bank*, the bankers
caused money panic after money panic on the business people of the
United States, by shipping gold out of the country, creating a money
shortage, and then importing it back.
After we got our *central bank*, the *Federal Reserve System*, there was
no longer any need for a money panic, because the banks could create
money. However, the panic as an instrument of power over the business and
financial community was used again on two important occasions, in 1920,
caused the Agricultural Depression, because *state banks* and *trust
companies* had *refused* to join the Federal Reserve System, and in 1929,
causing the Great Depression, which centralized nearly all power in this
country in the hands of a few great *trusts*
A trade *acceptance* is a draft drawn by the seller of goods on the
purchaser, and accepted by the purchaser, with a time of expiration
stamped upon it. The use of trade *acceptances* in the wholesale market
supplies short-term, assured credit to carry goods in process of product-
ion, storage, transit, and marketing. It facilitates domestic and foreign
commerce.
Seemingly, then, the bankers who wished to replace the open-book account
system with the trade *acceptance* system were *progressive* men who
wished to *help* American import-export trade. Much propaganda was issued
to that effect, but this was not really the story.
The open-book system, heretofore used entirely by American business
people, allowed a *discount for cash* The *acceptance* system discourages the use of cash, by allowing a *discount for credit*. The open-book
system also allowed much easier terms of payment, with liberal extensions
on the debt. The *acceptance* does not allow this, since it is a short-
term credit with the time-date stamped upon it. It is out of the sellers'
hands, and in the hands of a bank, usually an *acceptance* bank, which
does not allow any extention of time.
Thus, the adoption of *acceptances* by American businessmen during the
1920's greatly facilitated the domination and swallowing up of small
business into huge trusts, which accelerated the crash of 1929.
Trade *acceptances* had been used to some extent in the United States
before the Civil War. During that war, exigencies of trade had destroyed
the *acceptance* as a credit medium, and it had come back into favor in
this country, our people preferring the simplicity and generosity of the
open-book system.
Open-book accounts are single-name commercial paper, bearing only the
name of the debtor.
*Acceptances* are two-name paper, bearing the name of the debtor and the
creditor. Thus they became commodities to be bought and sold by banks.
To the creditor, under the open-book system, the debt is a liability. To
the *acceptance* bank holding an *acceptance*, the debt is an asset.
The men who set up *acceptance* banks in this country, under the leader-
ship of Paul Warburg, secured control of the billions of dollars of
credit existing as open accounts on the books of American businessmen.
Governor Marriner Eccles of the Federal Reserve Board stated before the
House Banking and Currency Committee that: Debt is the basis for the
creation of money
Large holders of trade *acceptances* got the use of billions of dollars
worth of credit-money, besides the rate of interest charged upon the
*acceptance* itself. It is obvious why Paul Warburg should have devoted
so much time, money, and energy to getting *acceptances* adopted by this
country's banking machinery.
On September 04, 1914, the National City Bank accepted the first time-
draft drawn on a national bank under provisions of the Federal Reserve
Act of 1913. This was the beginning of the end of the open-book account
system as an important factor in wholesale trade. Beverly Harris,
vice-president of the National City Bank of New York, issued a pamphlet
in 1915 stating that:
Merchants using the open account system are usurping the functions of
bankers
In *The New York Times* on June 14.1920, Paul Warburg, Chairman of the
American *Acceptance* Council, said:
Unless the Federal Reserve Board puts itself heart and soul behind the
untrammeled development of *acceptances* as a prime investment for banks
of the Federal Reserve Banks the future safe and sound development of the
system will be jeopardized.
They were out to get control of all credit in the United States, and they
got it, by means of the Federal Reserve System, the *acceptance* system,
and the lack of concern by the citizens.
Fortune Magazine, February 1950 pointed out that:
Volume of *acceptances* declined from $1,732 million in 1929 to $209
million in 1940, because of the concentration of *acceptance* banking
in a few hands, and the Treasury's low-interest policy, which made
direct loans cheaper than *acceptance*. There has been a slight upturn
since the war, but it is often cheaper for large companies to finance
imports from their own coffers.
in other words, the large companies more accurately, the great trusts,
now have control of credit and have not needed *acceptances* - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:43
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROEBEAR: That is from Barron's. Did I get it wrong? Seems correct.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:37
Roebear @IBDbahhumbug!>(@IBDbahhumbug!): - Donald, I like your paper better!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:35
RT @ark>(@ark): - ARK: regarding your 15:55, I personally think you're making a big mistake, but I can't say I really blame you. It's hard to resist. I wish you good luck.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:35
Roebear @Jack>(@Jack): - According to IBD Monday edition ( which would be as of Fri. close ) Dividend yield is at 1.62% which is a five year ( or more? ) low and price to book is 5.56, the five year high being set 7-30-97 at 5.63
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - JACK: Dow p/e ratio 21.9, Mkt to book 579.48%, Div Yield 1.58 all on Friday close.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - In recent days several of you have been talking about the Fed and the suspicion they are influencing the gold market via options. I don't know much about that so I avoided the discussion. Could the IMF also be involved? They own $40 Billion worth per a reference I have here that does not mention the number of ounces.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:22
Jack (?): -
So long as they ( world monetary authorities ) keep papering over global problems, major markets should continue higher in a vote of confidence for their masters.
But paper burns as will the souls of those sinners in hell.
One sees discontent, inroads are being made into the cultural fabric of lands who find this not acceptable.
Even here groups form, that the press castigates as fringe elements - but at whose behest? - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PANDA: Can you enlighten me about Dow/SPX divergence?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:15
Re:Market valuations Hi!>(Hi!): - Don't have a Barron's in front of me, but I believe you can find it in the back section with all of the financial statistics on the Market. If you don't have a newstand nearby you can check the public library.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:07
Jack DIVIDEND YIELD & MARKET TO BOOK>(DIVIDEND YIELD & MARKET TO BOOK): - Anyone: what is the dividend yield and market to book value of the Dow and S&P 500?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 16:04
panda @?>(@?): - I think the time has come to seriously ask the question, Are we at the point where all the money is in, and it is sloshing around from one group to another?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:55
ark salted@core.bre>(salted@core.bre): - Fellow posters: it seems some are fighting the tape. Go with the flow.
The Dow is heading up until it hits the stratosphere at which time no air. The best minds are out of the market some have been out for three
years. I may have to find another method of employment. I figured the
undervalued stocks couldn't go down further. They did. I think I'll chuck
gold and diversify into other segments. ( talk about a contary indicator )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:51
panda @>(@): - Palladium news;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/08/04/y0023_z00_29.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:49
panda @>(@): - Byron -- See my 15:35. :- ) And yes, the SWC chart is 'fresh'.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:46
panda @swc>(@swc): - More buyers than sellers today.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:43
Byron @ Wake Up:>(@ Wake Up:): - Paladium up the limit again. Platinum up about $17.00. And gold... will someone give that pile of gold a good kick and wake it up.!!! ( ^.^ )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:42
panda @>(@): - Big Dow/SPX divergence again. Dow +3.72 SPX +4.15
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:38
Goldbug23 Ingotwetrust>(Ingotwetrust): - Who Cares?: I certainly agree with your post re Alfred Malabre Jr. He was by far the best economist the WSJ ever had with great forsight. Maybe your wife is wrong? ;- )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 15:35
panda @>(@): - From Data Broadcasting Corp.
15:26 ANALYSTS EXPECT PALLADIUM LOCK UP LIMITS TUES. FOR 3RD STRAIGHT DAY. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:42
6pak Federal Reserve @ World Leader >(Federal Reserve @ World Leader ): - The first world war changed the status of the United States from that of
debtor nation to the position of the world's greatest creditor nation, a
title formerly occupied by England.
Since debt is money, according to the Governor Marriner Eccles of the
Federal Reserve Board, this also made the USofA the richest nation of the
world. The war also caused the removal of the headquarters of the world's
*acceptance* market from London to New York, and Paul Warburg became the
most powerful trade *acceptance* banker in the world.
The mainstay of the international financiers, however, remained the same.
The gold standard was still the basis of foreign exchange, and the small
group of internationals who owned the gold controlled the monetary
systems of the Western nations. Professor Gustav Cassel wrote in 1928:
The American dollar, not the gold standard, is the world's monetary
standard. The American Federal Reserve Board has the power to determine
the purchasing power of the dollar by making changes in the rate of
discount, and thus controls the monetary standard of the world.
The matter of changing the discount rate, for instance, has never been
satisfactorily explained. Inquiry at the Federal Reserve Board in
Washington elicited the reply that the condition of the money market is
the prime consideration behind changes in the rate Since the money
market is in New York, it takes no imagination to deduce that New York
bankers may be interested in changes of the rate and often attempt to
influence it.
Norman Lombard, in the periodical World's Work writes that:
In their consideration and disposal of proposed changes of policy, the
Federal Reserve Board should follow the procedure and ethics observed by
our *court of law*
Suggestions that there should be a change of rate or that the Reserve
Banks should buy or sell securities may come from anyone and with no
formality or written argument.
The suggestion may be made to a Governor or Director of the Federal
Reserve System over the telephone or at his club over the luncheon table,
or it may be made in the course of a casual call on a member of the
Federal Reserve Board.
The interests of the one proposing the change need not be revealed, and
his name and any suggestions he makes are usually kept *secret*
If it concerns the matter of open market operations, *the public* has no
*inkling* of the decision until the regular weekly statement appears,
showing changes in the holdings of the Federal Reserve Banks.
Meanwhile, there is no public discussion, there is no statement of the
reasons for the decision, or of the names of those opposing or
favoring it
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:35
Byron @ Routing for El Nino:>(@ Routing for El Nino:): - CRB Cash is up 1.50 approaching 245. Can 250 be next step. Come on El Nino. Weather patterns seem to be effected this summer on the left coast. Cooler than normal.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:35
Roebear @IMF>(@IMF): - IMF says US needs to take precautions against inflation.
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970804/business/stories/fund_1.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:30
13 1 Dec put @ 300>(1 Dec put @ 300): - Why I got a gold put:
Gold looks like it will fall out of bed, like December and June ( although it looks stronger to me ) .
Fade the fundamentals for the short term. This is an extreme time so things should be extreme:
If DOW is insanely high - 90% of companies are ‘over valued’.
Gold should be insanely low - 90% of companies should produce above cost.
Say this is a money ‘war’ and I wanted Au prices down. First, I would attack with minimum effort using propaganda and timing. When and how people catch on would shape my next move. Can I do a moderate attack next or do I have to go all out?
If the market drops like we anticipate ( I truly hope it is gentile, I know what it feels like ) , the masses will be busy meeting margin ( selling [get me out of everything!!] ) , probably in a stupor. Then they can look for what is not dropping. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:28
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - MORE GOLD: What is happening here? I used to think the markets really could not be manipulated if there was enough volume. Now, with gold, I am not so sure. There are some very big players. So, what is going on. I believe the CB's are using every derivative available to control the market so their paper can survive for a bit longer. We hang by a thread.
What can we do? I am starting to think those who recommend hold close to your belt enough gold bullion coins, or bars, or whatever of a gold nature may have something. We are looked upon as being nutters. Maybe so. But, better to be prepared and hope for the best, and what have we lost if the beat goes on and the market goes up forever. Most of us have some of the action and diversification will save us We hope. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:27
Sin-nonyminous Now that's entertainment!!>(Now that's entertainment!!): - The Great Carney will now use his psychic powers to answer the riddle in the envelope:
1 ) Non-regulated markets.
2 ) All competitive markets.
3 ) All countries that outlaw monopolies--especially those evil patent privileged companies. We don't need no stinking R&D!!
4 ) Late night 7-11 store with sleepy attendant ( Ironically enough--SOME OPEN 24 HOURS!! )
And the answer is.....
FREE MARKETS - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:26
Byron @ 1,2,3,4:>(@ 1,2,3,4:): - Does anyone else feel that the markets are marching in place, waiting for the actual signing of the budget agreement. Also, remember, he has the line-item veto now!!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:25
Roebear @MoreGold&ALL>(@MoreGold&ALL): - MoreGold I agree what is going on, PL,PA,Silver going up and gold in the doldrums? Can it be that only Gold has the threat of CB sales hanging over its head. Or is it massive shorting gold by every garderner in the world? Some of those wiser and more experienced in the metal markets, is this 3 out of 4 price run up unusual and can the white metal party go on without gold? Will gold drag them down? Can they drag gold up? BTW thanks to all for continuing the inflation/deflation discussion, I am beginning to see the light, would that gold did.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:16
MoreGold @Whats Happening ?>(@Whats Happening ?): - Whats happening with Gold? Platinum and paladium soaring, silver has been up nicely and Gold remains in the trenches. Is the Gold market manipulation really this efficient or is it something else?
Im beggining to wonder here ..... Can it be really this bad, and lets face it, this is not a pretty Gold market. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:13
aurophile z>(z): - not ny central bondz of course in 1982...LOL! had to go with us treasuries then...
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 14:00
aurophile y>(y): - Steve-Perth: Re bonds in the depression. Depends on when they were bought. My grandfather bought ny central rairoad bonds in 1933 and lived like a king until the late 1940's. Very similar profile to buying them in 1982 and holding until now.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 13:37
another market opinion @follow at your own risk>(@follow at your own risk): - 8/3/97
MARKET FOCUS
By Alvin H. Danenberg, DDS, CFP
MARKET FOCUS
By Alvin H. Danenberg, DDS, CFP
Excerpts from 8/1/97
AN END; A BEGINNING
A top in stock prices and a bottom in gold prices may be forming.
Peter Mauthe, the editor of Core Commentary and whose company manages over $160 million, has had an outstanding record of predicting the current strength in the stock market and in the weakness in the gold market. His most recent warning, however, is that the stock market rally will fizzle by August 15th and that the stock market could possibly give back all of its 1997 gains by the end of this year. He also sees renewed strength developing in the gold mining issues.
In a recent article in USA Today, the U.S. is identified as the second largest producer of gold next to South Africa. And, the area with the largest production in the U.S. is Nevada. The article states that the junior mining companies in Nevada are finding the gold through new technology, and the major gold mining companies are then coming in to bring that gold to the marketplace.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 13:31
Who Cares? Who Cares?>(Who Cares?): -
And why would it be important to differentiate between a free
market and something that is not?
Let's ask Ravi Batra, James Davidson, Robert Pretcher, and
James Grant, who all based their scenarios and assumptions upon
the false foundation of a free market.
Here's a book I picked up in Pittsburgh in 1992 at a used
bookstore. It was originally published in 1986 -
Beyond Our Means by Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., economics editor
for The Wall Street Journal.
I highly recommend it for those convinced of an impending meltdown.
Malabre has been more correct than any of the preceding prophets,
although I believe their reasoning was correct. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 13:23
6pak Serials @ Saturday>(Serials @ Saturday): - Donald @ 11:03 With great fondness, I remember the Serials. I also
wish that George S. Cole is right.
Very much appreciate your posts Donald, considerable amounts of fog, has
been cleared, due, to your informative and clear posts ( re: Deflation )
No, I am not as old as you are. : ) : ) : ) Take care. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 13:11
BillD Pl and Pa Infor>(Pl and Pa Infor): - BobA...read Vronsky's report below and
http://www.researchmag.com/platinum/platinum.htm
Good info on the dynamics of Pl and Pa ( and SWC ) !! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 13:01
vronsky PLATINUM UP $17 & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT>(PLATINUM UP $17 & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT): - Historically, when Platinum boasted a premium of $100 over gold ( now greater than $131 ) , it heralded a subsequent GOLD rally. Read RJ's apropos charts & comments: RJ Platinum Factor:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/RJ01.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:51
VRONSKY PLATINUM UP $17 & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT>(PLATINUM UP $17 & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT): - The Analysis Platinum: The Rich Man's Gold is a must read in view of recent soaring values of the teo white metals:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/platinum.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:50
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - PANDA: Thanks for ldtyx chart. V.Good. Must chuck it in now, & hit the sack. Got a big couple of days ahead of me. Seems my diary is getting fuller by the moment. And remember, do not soften to the hepc*ts of the net!!!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:42
vronsky THE DINES LETTER - LOOMING CURRENCY CRISIS August 4, 1997>(THE DINES LETTER - LOOMING CURRENCY CRISIS August 4, 1997): - Well-known Analyst cites potpourri of currency comments from world-acclaimed sources. Dines also says those blindly bullish on stocks are like the Italian proverb: “He who knows nothing, doubts nothing.”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:42
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Quote of the Week: when you're on the edge of the Empire State Building, whether you fall or not, would be a bit irresponsible not to be somewhat cautious.
Market Monitor: Stan Weinstein - on Nightly Business Report, 1st August
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Stan Weinstein, the Editor and Publisher of the widely followed Professional Tape Reader Market Letter. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Stan.
STAN WEINSTEIN, EDITOR, 'THE PROFESSIONAL TAPE READER': Always my
pleasure, Paul.
KANGAS: Let's have a quick review of what your thoughts are on this wide swinging market today. The Dow off as much as- 120 points. And it comes back, cuts the loss to only 28 points at the final bell. What do you think's going on here?
WEINSTEIN: That shows a couple things, Paul. Number one how resilient the market is. They still want to buy the corrections and buy the dips. The second thing, I've been talking in recent weeks about, yes the market's likely to correct near term and I still think it will, but I've also said
that a lot of secondary stocks and under $25 stocks will do very well even throughout a correction. We saw that today. A lot of them were up, even though the market was down 120, and our AMEX unrated average was
actually up during the day, while the Dow was down 120 points. I think that's where you're going to start to see some good relative strength.
KANGAS: And the NASDAQ Composite Index actually closed with a half point gain, which is at a record high.
WEINSTEIN: Very interesting.
KANGAS: Yes, so you think the secondary issues are going to become more popular now?
WEINSTEIN: Absolutely. I think they're going to take every wall flower that hasn't danced and spin them on the floor before this game is over.
KANGAS: Question. You're a technical analyst, and most of that type of analysis, in large measure, is based on patterns that have been developed over the years. This bull market has broken so many of those precedents, has it rendered technical analysis useless?
WEINSTEIN: I don't think at all. In fact, in this kind of volatile market, I think it's even more important, Paul. You see how many stocks which have been on our danger list, like an Eastman Kodak ( NYSE:EK ) , Columbia Healthcare ( NYSE:COL ) , have gotten bombed even while the Dow has set these new highs. And I think technical analysis is more important than ever. One other quick thought, nobody said, oh, is fundamental analysis useless even though the supposedly overvalue stocks are 20 and 30 P/E's, go to 40 and 50 P/E's, a bit of prejudice.
KANGAS: Right. Well, you know all in all, Stan, you've been kind of a cautious bull. I mean when the Dow was like 4500, you weren't saying 8000, 9000 Dow. And some of the time, you got out of issues too quickly. For instance, the last time you were with us on March 14, you said sell the bank stocks, which you had recommended the previous visit and had nice big profits. However, Bank America ( NYSE:BAC ) , Bank of Boston ( NYSE:BKB ) , NationsBank ( NYSE:NB ) are all much higher now than they were on March 14.
WEINSTEIN: Well a couple of quick thoughts to that, Paul. Number one, some like a Chase Manhattan Bank ( NYSE:CNB ) dropped from 110 to 85 and now it's back to 110. So I think the money can be used elsewhere. You can lower your risk. So that's one thought. I think that it's important here that you rotate and go to things that are first breaking out a basis and keep your risk down. The other thing I think when you're on the edge of the Empire State Building, whether you fall or not, would be a bit irresponsible not to be somewhat cautious.
KANGAS: Okay. I will give you a last March 14, the Dow was at 69.35 and you said we're going to see a correction soon, and in less than a month, it was down 458 points. Then you said buy. So you're right on that. You also recommended Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ) , Sunbeam ( NYSE:SOC ) , United Airlines ( NYSE:UAL ) and Alumax ( NYSE:AMX ) , all of which have done
well since March. But you gave us Ann Taylor ( NYSE:ANN ) , which hadn't done well. What do we do with that?
WEINSTEIN: Ann Taylor disappointed, sell it out for a small loss. The others look good, although you can do partial profit taking. The others still look good in the long term.
KANGAS: Additions to your buy list.
WEINSTEIN: Well there are a lot of things. But I think you're going to start to see a lot of underpriced stocks, under 25 do well. Something like Bethlehem Steel ( NYSE:BS ) , I think that's first break out of a base looks interesting. I also like Dime Bancorp ( NYSE:DME ) . I like JRJR JR
Cigar ( NASDAQ:JRJR ) looks interesting.
Something like Sapians International ( NASDAQ:SPNSF ) , symbol SPNSF, a cheap stock from here back to 5 1/2, it looks interesting. And also Egghead ( NASDAQ:EGGS ) as it pulls back to 5 1/2 support. Those are the kind of stocks that I think are going to give a whirl here.
KANGAS: Okay. What about the bond market here?
WEINSTEIN: Bond market after hitting an important bottom in April at 106, and the bond contract had a heck of a rally up to over 116. Short term already for a correction. But I think it's still in decent shape longer term.
KANGAS: Didn't recover at all today.
WEINSTEIN: No, I think we're ready for a correction. We had a parabolic move bonds, we deserve a correction.
KANGAS: All right. What about gold? Last time you said gold looked like it was bottoming out somewhere around 339, it's gone a lot lower than that. Although you did say don't buy the stocks yet back in March.
WEINSTEIN: Absolutely. I, I'm still saying the same thing. You have that nice bounce from 339 to 370, then you broke 339 and now it's 325. It's even worse. I didn't want you to buy it then, I don't want you to buy it now.
KANGAS: All right, now last time you said you should sell some of the high techs like Ascend ( NASDAQ:ASND ) , which is lower, Remedy ( NASDAQ:RMDY ) , Cadence ( NYSE:CDN ) , which are higher. What do we do now, very quickly?
WEINSTEIN: Well, it's a very, very mixed group. Some I would be buying on weakness. Others like those I would still stay away from.
KANGAS: Okay, so it's, it really has to be sorted out individually?
WEINSTEIN: This is where the technicals can help you.
KANGAS: Okay. Good point. Stan, thanks very much.
WEINSTEIN: Always a pleasure.
KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Stan Weinstein, the Professional Tape Reader.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
( c ) 1997 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:41
panda @>(@): - Steve - Perth -- Here's the last couple of days for the Long Bond.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:34
panda @>(@): - Roebear -- I find it amazing that so many are afraid of the stock market, yet are fully invested in it. Is this the proverbial, Climbing the wall of worry? The problem that I have with most of these people, is that they have never suffered a loss! Sure, there have been declines, but the, Market always came back! Compare that experience to those involved in trading or trading the precious metal stocks/ precious metals. When the bear comes, none will believe it. It will be another buying opportunity, NOT. There are going to be a lot of pissed off people when the Bear finally arrives. Of course, the belief system or current paradigm, does not believe that a 'serious' decline will occur until investors start to reach the age of retirement. Did these people ever hear of 'exogenous events', or do they just ignore everything and only hear what they want to hear?
O.K., us gold bulls can be accused of that to. I think most gold bulls have a longer time horizon depending on the vehicle of choice. Clearly, futures traders and option traders have a much shorter time horizon than stock accumulators or physical buyers. That being said, I believe there in lies the reason for the 'conflicts' that arise at this site. I find that both sides are, or will be correct. It's just the timing that no one agrees on . :- ) ) None the less, the differing view points are invaluable! I hope all stick to their guns and present your cases accordingly! It's a good thing that all cafeteria utensils must be returned! :- ) ) - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:31
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - PANDA: Check out the strong one day upward movement in the $TYX. Quite
extraordinary compared to the rest of the chart. Dow Utilities index starting to level out again also.
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/squote?TICKER=$TYX&TABLES=CHART_EXTEND&SOURCE=core/dbc - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:23
DJ RSA Platinum>(RSA Platinum): - Jan - The two best platinum mines in S. Africa are Rustenburg ( RPATY ) and Impala ( IMPAY ) . You can buy ADR's in both. I have requested some info from both companies. I'll post some info when I get it. Perhaps John Disney could help with some of the fundamentals. I own SWC, and am holding it, but am disappointed with their hedging.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:18
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Australia's Peter Costello is acheiving low inflation at the cost of
more unemployed. So much for the boom!!
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970805/news/news2.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 12:06
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - More high economics from Sydney journo's re: Thai Baht collapse
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970805/business/business8.html - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 11:53
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Tis true..the main game is protecting Treasury Bonds. Who cares about the
stock market. There is a lot of old money ( & profit ) in Bonds. But a lot
of money was lost during the depression in Bonds, so I am told.
Re: Clam Chowder. Wife & I tried it for the first time in Michigan.
Beautiful stuff. To heck with the cholesterol!! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 11:52
Bob A to JAN>(to JAN): - SWC is the only one I follow, I'll bet some large mines have both as a by-prod. I don't know who they are. There are a couple in S. A. and again I don't follow them.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 11:43
Jan @Denver>(@Denver): - BillD, BobA, Earl,
With SWC and PDLCF having sold forward, are there any other PA or PL producers in North America worth considering. Or are these 2 companies still the best bet? Thanks. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 11:16
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Gold-Does anyone notice a foul smell ?Somebody get a shovel and bury it.In on Friday out on Monday.Happy Trails
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 11:11
Roebear @clarify>(@clarify): - panda: I meant to say that from other boomers I get incredulous looks, similar reactions as you mentioned ( stocks only go up don't they? ) Those that work in financial areas in Co. are knowlegeable enough to be worried/cautious, but still fully invested. Some Gen-x are buying gold juniors, metals lately, but other mostly short tem equities. A year ago I was virtually alone in market at work except for investment clubs but now I can strike up a conversation about equities with about 75% or better. Highest level of involvement I have seen here in 16 years I have been with company.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 11:03
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: This is one of those times that I hope you are right and I am wrong! Let's get on with it. Are you old enough to remember movie serials? Waiting week after week to see how it ends, thinking about the plot all week waiting for Saturday only to get another tease. We have to call this the Perils of Pauline Dow
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:53
Earl @wordaccessnet.com>(@wordaccessnet.com): - Bob A/BillD: Re, SWC. Hopefully all the negative news is out as well.
D.A.: Thanks for the expansion on backwardation. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:52
Roebear @lovethoseelizabethangirlswhentheybow>(@lovethoseelizabethangirlswhentheybow): - panda, who is getting ready for whom indeed. I never bought the line that your tax rates will be lower when the 401k is withdrawn, a line even the promoters are bacing away from recently. Though I participate ( who could turn down 50-60% Co. contribution? ) in 401k I seriously doubt the government will be able to keep their fingers out of that tempting pie. Personally I hope to exit just before they go in with both hands and in this respect I am hoping that gov't moves slower than markets. I get similar reactions from other boomers except for those who work in financial area. Gen-x on the other hand is heavily playing the market, many short term traders. Who was it that said when your barber and shoeshine boy start giving you tips its time to get out of the market?
Participation here is phenomenal for a financially conservative area. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:48
George Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks): - Gold stocks again holding up VERY WELL despite a $1 drop in bullion. Perhaps gold stock investors are telling us that bullion prices have been pushed below equilibrium by huge speculative short selling, and that this situation will not last much longer.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:47
Au99.9 @ Even the gardener is shorting gold!>(@ Even the gardener is shorting gold!): - Oldman, Your 14.31 posting refers. My gardener mentioned last week that his brokers 'tip of the month' was to go short on a couple of gold contracts. This same guy couldn't shorten a piece of string with a sharp knife. Could be that if I am not paying him too much now to mow the lawn, I soon will be.
I am feeling seriously unloved. Instead of drilling the cr*p out of the back blocks of East Africa in search of gold. I should stay home and cut my own grass.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:43
Bob A to BillD.>(to BillD.): - I agree, lotsa reserves, they are covered on that point. With any luck in the near term they might get production up. I think any positive news by them will greatly benefit the stk. quickly.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:38
George S. Cole stock market and gold>(stock market and gold): - DONALD: The public may not start getting out in mass once the Dow drops more than 10%, but the professionals and pension funds will. The word has been out for quite some time that the powers that be will not allow' the market to drop more than 10%. But once this covenant is no longer operative for whatever reason, the pros will be getting out in a hurry.
Once the pros see the Dow can drop more than 10%, the next question will be -- if they are losing control of stocks, then might gold be the next market to break free? Once the establishment starts to lose control of a major market, a huge gold bull will follow very quickly, just as day follows night. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:37
BillD Meltdown in Europe?>(Meltdown in Europe?): - Has anyone looked at the European stock markets today? Almost everone is down nearly 2%...whatzup?
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MILHOUSE: Ref your 8:18. You must remember that the CPI figures do not include taxes. Further, recent adjustments use something called an imputed rent figure to account for housing that I do not fully understand. During the particular 18 month period you selected, the town I live in has had a 14% increase in property taxes. In addition to that a new tax jurisdiction was created for properties on the beach. That amounts to a 10% surtax. Thus my property taxes increased 15.4%. During the 1988-1992 period there was a property slump. Prices have increased considerably during the past 18 months but I can not quote a figure as I have only anecdotal evidence. I would not use the word massive to describe these changes but they are certainly not reflected in the CPI index. Obviously the figures change from area to area. Throughout this Geographic Statistical Area there have been thousands of layoff and downsizings. Aetna Insurance, 4000, Travelers Insurance 1200, General Dynamics 20,000? United Technologies 4000? The impact has been enourmous. Don't hold me to the exact figures but you get the idea. Rare indeed is the family who has not has a salary cut. Other changes include reduced healthcare benefits, pension changes and so forth. What better standard than gold can you find to measure them? Gold performs the function honestly.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:29
vronsky PLATINUM & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT -- AGAIN!!>(PLATINUM & PALLADIUM UP LIMIT -- AGAIN!!): - The sister white metals are maximum up again. Historically, they have been leading indicators to GOLD. RE-read TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO for future gold action - by Ted Butler:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler607.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:16
BillD SWC on the move>(SWC on the move): - BobA...well, finally, SWC starting to move ... up almost $1 toay. About time, given that Pa and Pl have been limit up every day ( almost ) for two weeks!! Sure they forward sold...but they have a lot in the ground too!!
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 10:10
vronsky Depression - A Leading Indicator>(Depression - A Leading Indicator): - Who Cares?: Many thx for sharing the insightful & historical analogy of the Intel/Microsoft to late 19th century Railroad industry's rate of diminishing returns. An astute observation.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:49
D.A. pa.note>(pa.note): - All:
The PM fix in london for Pa was 239. Folks are a little unsure as to what is going on because the Russians have been delivering some metal. Perhaps they are delivering their metal to Tiger fund. This would not do much to alleviate shortages.
Earl:
Typically in short squeezes there is rampant demand for the physical which drives backwardation to obscene levels. The first go round in Pa we had one month backwardation on the order of $50 /ounce. The bid/ask spreads were so absurd that it is hard to put a real number on it. The current backwardation is around $15 for September delivery. The very high backwardation levels induce holders to lend metal into the market. This lending of metal can be enough to break the squeeze. If the squeeze was 'artificially' produced the squeezers may be forced liquidate. The current level of backwardation is not enough to get people to loan large amounts of metal. The volatility is so high that your $15 'profit' could get wiped out in an afternoon.
My working assumption is that we will see another surge in backwardation. This implies that the spot market still has a ways to go. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:46
David To StradMaster>(To StradMaster): - Welcome back ...
About time you did some honest work for a change!
Talk Later
TTFN - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:46
vronsky Goldbugs LAST WEEKLY COMMENT ON SILVER STOCKS>(Goldbugs LAST WEEKLY COMMENT ON SILVER STOCKS): - In light of SILVER’s price rise, it’s relevant to read “Silver Stocks, there ain’t too many.” Reviews Pan Am Silver, Silver Standard, Int’l Avino, United Kino & Sunshine, others:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug613.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:41
vronsky THE RED BARON (Part - 2)>(THE RED BARON (Part - 2)): - Central Bank Gold Reserves Data is this week’s theme with startling revelations about the Fed’s not too profitable operations. Big income from Gold Call sales:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron801.html
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:34
panda @>(@): - FWIW column. I had a conversation with a friend recently. The topic was what to do with a retirement account position in the market. In order to seek some safety, about half of the invested funds were put in to a bond fund ( !!! ) . I asked a few questions. One was, do you expect interest rates to fall? My friend returned an unsure look to me. I said if interest rates go down, your bond fund will make you money, else you will lose money! A surprised look was returned again along with, How can you lose money on bonds? ( Does ANYONE remember 1994? ) After a long discussion, I said put your retirement money in to a money market fund that invests in T-Bills. The reason for all of this? There will be a great buying opportunity when the market pulls back... My friend wants to be ready for it. And so it goes....
I asked my friend for thoughts on inflation and currency outlooks. The reply? Inflation doesn't exist because the government says so, and what was that about currencies? And so it goes....
I wonder, who is getting ready for whom - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:30
Bob A to D. A.>(to D. A.): - Thanks, dummies just like SWC. Maybe both managements went to the same school.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:26
D.A. re.pdlcf>(re.pdlcf): - Bob:
PDLCF has sold forward all of this years palladium production at 160. They assured me that this was a very good price and that they were very pleased with the people ( I believe down the road in greenwich, conn ) who run their hedging.
Its always a great enlightenment to speak with the people on the other side of your trade. - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: In general I agree with the points you just made. The exceptions would be that I don't think a 10% drop will do it. This buy on the dip crown needs much more than 10% to learn their new lesson. I say it will take on the order of 20%. The other factor is going to be the T-Bond market. Foreigners will hit the exit ramps, the Fed will have its hands full there. I think that will give them all they can handle and they are less likely to tamper with stocks if I am correct about that.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:13
Bob A atwork>(atwork): - Anyone following PDLCF, why isn't it moving up? I'm aware of SWC and its pblm's but don't follow PDLCF.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 09:09
Roebear @Backfromdaysofyore>(@Backfromdaysofyore): - EBN has 324.05 down .70 but up from 323 area, silver has poked its nose over 4.50 again, now 4.51 up 3 cents. HIHO Silver Away.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:37
Mike Sheller que hora, Teodoro?>(que hora, Teodoro?): - TED: Oh yes, the time of birth and location would be appreciated for utmost accuracy.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:35
Mike Sheller how old are you now? how old are you now?>(how old are you now? how old are you now?): - TED: Is it really your B'day? If so - a very happy n' healthy one ( stay off the water ) . What year were you born? I'll run a scope out on you. I'd like to see what you look like up there. You don't have to answer that.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:35
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - TSE closed today.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:22
Milhouse @Home>(@Home): -
STEVE PUETZ : Thanks for the full explanation on your gold/silver ratio comments. I agree that if both metals experience similar monetary demand then the ratio would primarily be determined by relative rarity.
BTW, after reading your 3/8 22:20 post I now believe that Leonard Cohen is an optimist.
Cheers, Milhouse - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:19
George Cole stock market>(stock market): - To All; The key to the gold market is the U.S. stock market. Once the stock bear is on earnest ( defined as a drop of more than 10% in the Dow ) a huge rise in the gold price will follow very shortly.
Once the stock bubble starts to implode and financial professionals recognize the game is over, the Fed will be faced with two very unpalatable choices, either one of which would be very bullish for gold.
1 ) They can try to contain serious damage to the market, economy, and banking system by aggressively cutting rates. But this would tank the dollar.
2 ) They can follow a dollar first policy and cut rates just slightly or not at all. But this course risks a huge meltdown in stock prices, a serious recession, and grave dangers to the banking system. Also very bullish for gold.
Given the extremely dire consequences to the system of a real bear market on Wall Street, frantic efforts can be expected to contain any correction at the 10% level. This probably will involve massive S&P 500 future purchases by the Fed and/or Treasury through Wall Street surrogates such as Goldman Sachs. These efforts may or may not succeed. But if they fail and the market does drop more than 10% from its peak, look for another 10-15% decline in a matter of days accompanied by an explosion in the gold price.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:18
Milhouse @Taken to task>(@Taken to task): -
DONALD : Although you have taken me to task over the inflation/deflation issue, I still see some logical flaws in your argument. Your 11:38 post described how people perceive inflation in their daily lives, or put another way, how people perceive the results of inflation. You then suggest converting everything to ounces of gold to determine the real story.
Measuring inflation by looking at changes in the purchasing power of gold is misleading because :
a ) Since 1968, the purchasing power of gold has remained relatively constant
b ) Between 1934 and 1968, the purchasing power of gold reduced hand in hand with the purchasing power of the currency to which it was fixed
Therefore, from the point of view of gold, pre-1968 was a long period of inflation and post 1968 we have had zero inflation.
Inflation/deflation can only be measured in terms of the official currency. Since the official currency of the US was linked to gold until 1968 ( officially until 1971 ) , then gold could legitimately be used pre-1968 in measurements of inflation. Post 1968, it cannot be used . For example, assume you had a salary of $20,000 per year in Feb 1996, with the gold price at $410. In terms of gold your salary was therefore 48.8 ounces. Today your salary is unchanged in terms of dollars, but it is now equivalent to 61.5 ounces of gold. In terms of gold you have had a 26% pay rise and yet you can afford less than you could 1.5 years ago. This would seem to indicate massive inflation, which certainly does not reflect reality.
Like the price of all tangible assets which remain in demand the price of gold, as measured in terms of a national currency, will inevitably reflect the results of the increasing quantity of that national currency. This is inflation.
Cheers, Milhouse
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 08:05
Tortfeasor Joke of the Morn>(Joke of the Morn): - Morning Ted and if it is your birthday, happy birthday you old duffer and may you continue to having these notches on your belt. I read an interest article this weekend in Time about the government's contingency plan when the stock market crashes. Sounds to me like they know something about what is going to happen. They can't fool the folks on this site though. Here's a little story for the morning.
A priest and a rabbi found themselves sharing a compartment on a
train. After a while, the priest put down his book and opened a
conversation by saying, I know that, in your religion, you're not
supposed to eat pork... but have you really never even tasted it?
The rabbi closed his newspaper and responded, I must tell you the
truth. Yes I have, on the odd occasion.
The rabbi had his turn of interrogation. He asked, I know that in
your religion, you're supposed to be celibate... but...
The priest interjected, Yes, I know what you are going to ask, and
yes, I have succumbed to temptation once or twice.
The two resumed their reading. There was silence for a while.
Then the rabbi peeked around his newspaper and said, Better than
pork, isn't it?! - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 07:26
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: Happy Birthday! My youngest will be 36 tomorrow. I have EBN & Yahoo up now. Joburg Index up .57%
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 06:59
Ted @Natal Day>(@Natal Day): - It appears the peace process is unraveling in Israel....How surprising!
BBL dudes..... - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 06:40
Ted @Natal Day>(@Natal Day): - Donald: Got my info from CNBC....Dax now down 84 and London Gold up a nickle...Wonder why EBN+ABN are blank?....
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 06:25
hepc @>(@): - He's ba-ack.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 05:52
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: Sunrise already in the Northland? Nothing here yet. Where did you get the numbers? Yahoo, EBN, Bloomberg all have zeroes for me. I guess they usually receive them via UPS, what with the strike and all, no numbers today.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 05:46
Ted @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Asian stocks mostly down...ditto Europe,led by Dax down 76 ( 1.5% ) ,on fears of a rate increase....U.S.Dollar continues strong in European trading....
UPS on strike could be a sign of the increasingly tight labor market in the USA.... - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 04:44
Ted @sunrise>(@sunrise): - Good mornin ALL....It's a beautiful sunrise but Gold is down .60 .....
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 04:18
Chong for Cheech>(for Cheech): - Oh man, ya hit the wrong button. Sheesh.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 04:16
food for thought xx>(xx): -
From Nostradamus...
VI.13 A dubious US president shall be impeached.
Un dubieux ne viendra long du regne
La plus grand part le voudra soustenir
Un captiole ne voudra point qu'il regne
Sa grande chair ne pourra maintenir
NOTE:
Dubieux: dubious, shady; plus: most; plus grand part: by majority;
soutenir: to support; captiole: an anagram of the word capitol or Capitol
Hill; point: point, mark; pourra ( pourrir ) : to become rotten, decay;
maintenir: to uphold, defend.
One dubious president shall not reign long
The majority of population shall give him support
But Capitol Hill shall not give high mark of approval
Such a great chair shall be upheld from decay
COMMENT: This president shall be impeached by Congress even he gains a
majority of approval from his people. The English word chair indicates
that this event shall occur in an English-speaking country. And the word
Capitol clearly indicates US Congress.
IV.28 - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 04:13
Cheech @ Chong for Who Cares>(for Who Cares): - We've said it once here, and we will say it again.
Basketball Jones,
I got a basketball jones,
I got a basketball jones,
Ooh baby, ooh, ooh oo-ooh.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 03:15
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - Two Items from RSA press. The first concerns the
well known anti apartheid activist Alan Boesak ( also
Head of the Foundation for Peace and Justice ) .
The second concerns the son of Arch Bishop
Desmond Tutu - Leader of the Anglican Church in RSA
and Chairman of the Truth and Reconciliation Commision.
( I'd like to meet the guy that thinks up the names
of these organizations ) .
Boesak in court today
Former ANC Western Cape leader Dr Allan Boesak is to
appear in the Cape Town High Court today on 32 charges
of theft and fraud involving more than R8,8-million.
He is to appear together with the former bookkeeper of
the Foundation for Peace and Justice, Freddie Steenkamp.
The case is expected to be postponed to October to allow
Boesak's legal team time to study the 58-page indictment.
Trevor Tutu to be arrested
East London detectives arrive in Johannesburg today to
arrest Trevor Tutu, son of Truth and Reconcilliation
Commission chairman, Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
Tutu has been on the run for almost four years. He is
facing a three-and-a-half year jail for making a bomb
threat at East London Airport in 1989.
Tutu jumped bail of R10 000 when his appeal against his
sentence failed.
He is known to be living in Johannesburg and detectives
will this week pick him up and return him to East London
to serve his term.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 03:11
Who Cares? Who Cares?>(Who Cares?): -
A site I check once in awhile...
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/homepage.htm
It's got a well-scaled DJIA chart for 82 to 97. I've
checked it before, but tonight I'm just really struck
by how clearly it's exponential. We really might see
a 10,000 DOW within a year.
It's *really* going to suck when it blows up. 2000 is
going to rank right up there with John Law. : )
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 01:33
the wizard goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - do you think the dollar is strong ?
....
is is weak
.....
in fact,
exhausted - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 01:17
Who Cares/ Kitty>(Kitty): -
Is there any difference between a delusional population that pushes
the NYSE up to record highs, and a population that believes an
economy that is 40% controlled by federal, state and local
governments is a free market? : ) - Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 01:08
Who Cares? Depression - A Leading Indicator?>(Depression - A Leading Indicator?): -
Oh, what the hell. This was originally developed as a grant project
at my previous job, it's original intent was to develop a tool for
predicting strategic Information System ( IS ) costs.
It's based on a synthesis of correlations between historical
and modern industry, empirical data, some guesswork. To wit -
I've already mentioned that I watch Intel/Microsoft for layoffs
as a leading indicator. This is based upon the railroad
industry in 1892. Intel and the railroad monopolies have a lot
in common. High capital costs, rapidly expanding industry,
derive much of their value from the destruction of local commodity/
information monopolies, dependent upon previously unexploited
commodities, state-of-the-art technical processes and workers,
major driver of the economy.
In 1892, the railroads hit a point of diminishing return on
investment, just as Intel / Microsoft will someday. They began
large layoffs of railroad workers, which in turn ( according to
observers ) sparked the 1893 depression.
Part of the New Era, probably most, is being driven by euphoria
about the Information Age. Please ask yourself this - why isn't
there a railroad stop at every house in America? Diminishing
returns. True of all industries. How might we predict that DR
point for Intel?
Cost of Information. COI. When the COI is dropping rapidly,
previously untenable IS projects become viable. Money should be
spent on marginal IS projects. When the COI is rising, IS spending
should be curtailed. COI is the cost driver for your typical IS
department, although 99% of them probably don't know this yet. : )
You should ( theoretically ) be able to derive a COI for specific
industries, if not companies. It should be possible to correlate
historical empirical data on the COI with the general economic
conditions of the country as well as the IS industry
I envision COI as something akin to the CPI - a marketbasket of
weighted costs for RAM, programmer payrates, telecom cost / minute,
computers, etc.
What is important here is not the COI value itself, but the
relative RATE OF CHANGE. Very important.
If someone were to try to use this, they'd have to gather empirical
data over the past 15-20 years, on items related to the IS industry,
develop a weighting and correlation that matched up well as a
predictor of what really happened in the economy, then monitor the
rate of change of this formula during the present.
I'm think it's pretty unlikely that a major depression / blowout
could occur while the principal driver of today's economy ( IS
industry ) is still ramping up in investment and income.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 00:44
Kitty .>(.): - ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Sorry, that's all the sand my sandbox can spare. I will be back later with another shitload to cover the rest of what has been posted of late.
- Date: Mon Aug 04 1997 00:37
Ron Noose Tightens Around President William Jefferson Sleazo>(Noose Tightens Around President William Jefferson Sleazo): - A witness to K. Willey's tryst with Clinton has emerged. Incredibly, Willey's husband comitted suicide the day after the alleged infidelity occurred. http://www.drudgereport.com/2.txt
