- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:59
6pak Savings @ Not to Worry, be Happy !>(Savings @ Not to Worry, be Happy !): - Canadians' savings hit new low, but investments boom:
July 29 1997, Royal Bank Study.
Bank of Canada, reported in May that debt as a ratio of disposable
income had hit 94.3 %, up from 92 % in mid 1996, and up from 50 % in 1986
John McCallum, chief economist Royal Bank ( Re: new study from Royal Bank )
At first glance, the numbers - based on the first three months of 1997 -
present a puzzle
If people are saving less ( 10 % before 1991-92 recession, to 1.7 % first
quarter 1997 ) then ever have, then how are we ( Canada ) financing this
record-high level of investment?
Jim Stanford, economist with Canadian Auto Workers Union
Its clearly a legacy of the anti-inflation, balanced-budget policies of
the 90's, which are very popular on Bay Street but have been a disaster
for Canadian Households
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Savings-Problem.html
Modern Artificial Control - Great, isn't it !
Gold, will put a short circuit, in that wonderful control system.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:32
nailz SPOT vs. FUTURES.....>(SPOT vs. FUTURES.....): - WW.... You seem to wonder if GLENN remembers correctly on the bounces off $340.00....He has to look at several months and futures contracts at one time, therefore his way to remember all is to write down each day something like March = Spot + $2.10 or December = Spot + $7.30...It generally correlates to a certain amount of cents per month....Indeed the months we were using when spot bounced off 340 were at 344.50 down to 342.50.....His calculator has to be able to function in all months where ours only has to work in one....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:22
RJ Semi-heee-heee>(Semi-heee-heee): - - Choose your dart, for I am a Newporter!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:17
EB does this mean...oh god no...let it not be...>(does this mean...oh god no...let it not be...): - that we won't be throwing darts together in the pubs of Newport beach? Aw shucks!
away...to eat some analphabet soup!
EB - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:09
RJ Pseudo-Semi >(Pseudo-Semi ): -
- Actually there were two, which puts my insult ratio at about 13 to 1, just as it should be. I KNEW you were a duffer, that’s why I hid that one in the middle. Very interesting you would pick THAT out.
Away.......To the thesaurus.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:09
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - EBN Gold up .20 and Silver down 1 cent....Good night ALL....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 23:01
GFD Justice Texas Style>(Justice Texas Style): - Bob: Actually I believe the suit is filed in Texas. The suit was targeted at Lehman Brothers not Barric ( according to the article ) although it may be a question of time. Anyway, Barric does not need to be involved merely half of Wall Street...
There was quite a debate over liability when the story first broke but in essence the key will be weather the courts feel the analysts were negligent. That is, negligent in that sufficient due dilligence ( best efforts is the phrase used in the boiler plate ) was conducted or not. The courts are coming down hard in this area and will not allow the law to be shield for negligence which means that all the boiler plate in the world will not save you if you are deemed to be negligent.
It will be an interesting case to watch as it will set the standards for analytical reports for the forseeable future. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:59
EB RJ...there was only one...>(RJ...there was only one...): - person who made reference to HEP-RAT-CAT and his 325 call...hey...wait a minute...you're talking about me! But...I... I'm...not palistinian...oh...you said philistine. Ok. That's better! Hey wait a minute...OUCH. And the only duffing I do is on the golf course...
AWAY
EB
note to self: Use more sarcasm when referencing to catboy... - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:53
Addicted @RJ>(@RJ): - RJ: Thanks for the correction - apologies to Schippi. As for gold as an anchor - just a bearish daydream ( you know, kind of like $2000 by 2000 for a goldbug ) .
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:53
Jack This may be a Contrarian Sign>(This may be a Contrarian Sign): -
Talking about contrarian indicators, Placer Dome just dropped its asking price for the fine ole Sigma Mine and much younger Kiena Mine by C $15 million to C $55 million. Mcwatters Mining is still first in line.
Rough numbers indicate that PDG will keep about a 10% interest. These are presently producing mines.
Check out the stories at symbol PDG and the more detailed scoop at the symbol MCW on the CyberStok group here at KITCO.
While nothing is ever certain; MCWATTERS should to be followed closly.
GO GOLD and GOLD STOCKS. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:50
RJ Oh>(Oh): - Addicted
- Ah! I believe the gentleman in question is the kind Mr. Schippi - I hope I spelled that correctly - who is a Newporter and a kindred spirit. As for gold as an anchor, lets not get carried away, what goes down, will eventually go up…………
- PS
Actually, there is no such thing as a Newporter. Those of us who live on the California Gold Coast, just think of ourselves as blessed.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:44
Bob @...not a lawyer but paid a few high-priced Bay street lawyers in my time>(@...not a lawyer but paid a few high-priced Bay street lawyers in my time): - GFD: It's funny how much law you learn when you experience the weight of the law and the resultant legal churning by its 'professional' practitioners ( no offense Tort - keep up the jokes it looks good on your profession ) . I paid enough legal feess that I should be permitted to practice law as a consolation prize.
I am not an American but I am well aware of the litigious nature of US citizens ( I have a current dispute pending with a high-profile Boston vencap firm ) .
There is no way that anyone could successfully sue Barrick for performing private due diligence on Busang. Barrick was probably required to sign a nondisclosure and confidentiality agreement with Bre-X, as did Freeport.
In this case the only obligation is that which is defined in the agreement and subject to securities disclosure rules. In the case of Freeport it was specifically required to perform DD on the Busang claim and to report its findings to the partners in the venture. Freeport was one of the partners and therefore had an obligation to publicly issue full, true, and plain disclosure of all material changes in the financial status of the company. Clearly, if Busang was real then FCX would be a material beneficiary as proposed managing partner.
Therein lies the distinction. Barrick was NOT a partner nor in a position to benefit from Busang without the consent of the Indonesian authorities and Bob Hassan - and without a serious exchange of paper. As such it was not obligated to disclose any information pursuant to securities law.
If any lawyer hopes to succeed in any case against Barrick in this matter the case would need to be heard in Louisiana or Mississippi and the Judge and jury would need to be well paid in advance.
Cheers - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:41
Addicted @RJ>(@RJ): - RJ: Sorry, someone posted that they were on board the Kickin' Back ( ie. a yacht, not really a carrier ) - I thought that person was you.
Reason I asked: I had a great idea last night. Gold is almost twice as dense as lead. When gold becomes cheaper than lead, we can mint lead coins, and make some very attractive and compact anchors and anchor chains for boats of all sizes out of gold ! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:36
GFD Isaiah>(Isaiah): - Byron: BTW I really enjoyed Mr. Nock's writing, especially Isaiah's Job. Thanks!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:35
RJ (?): - Addicted
- While I generally pride myself on the higher arts of Banter, the aircraft carrier Kickin' Back reference, has me stumped.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:24
RJ Hah!>(Hah!): - Goldman @ 17:16
- The only way gold will rise to 380 by the end of August is if Boris Yelstin or Nelson Mandella dies, Or Bill Clinton - after being elected King For Life - dies and Hillary ascends to the throne as Queen For Life.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:23
Byron What Goes Around Comes Around:>(What Goes Around Comes Around:): - GFD: Poor Barrick. They were born with a silver spoon in their mouth.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:20
GFD This Time IT IS Different>(This Time IT IS Different): - Byron: Re your post about the little guy getting screwed with Bre-X while the big shots get away. The lawyers are working feaverishly to rectify this situation:
...Barrick Gold Corp. was drawn in to the Bre-X Minerals Ltd. furore yesterday after a blockbuster lawsuit filed in Texas claimed it tested Busang core samples for gold and came up empty handed. Although Barrick has not been named as a defendant in the suit, it alleges that a high profile New York analyst, who once worked for Barrick, knew that the gold miner had come up empty well before it was finally revealed that Busang was actually a fraud....
... The lawsuit alleges Lehman analyst Daniel McConvey, Barrick's comptroller for six years before joining the brokerage, knew about Barrick's negative tests...
Full article at: http://www.canoe.ca/FP/jul29_blockbuste.html
Who knows? With a few breaks like this, Bre-X may not be a bad investment after all!! :- ) - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:15
Bob @...the Bull and the Boomer Theory>(@...the Bull and the Boomer Theory): - If we miss GSC's mid-August golden Bull and DOW demise it probably would be deferred until the Q3 earnings results leak-out in October. If we don't get a profit-taking sell-off by October ( a traditional favorite for corrections ) then we may have underestimated the Baby Boom inheritance theory.
The BB generation ( 1947-66 ) are entering an age when inheritances start filtering down. The theory suggests that Boomers are starting to inherit a trillion dollar pie from their parents and this 'feel good' atmosphere is a precondition to the longevity of the BULL. If the money is moving from hard estate assets sold off and some of the proceeds reallocated to paper we can readily determine a significant source of the 'retail' fund flows into stks.
I am 44 and both my parents have passed on ( my Dad passed away in march at age 81 ) . Even though my Dad never achieved any material financial success in his life he still had about $300k for the five of us. I certainly didn't get 'irrationally exuberant' with my $60k inheritance but its all gravy - depending on your perspective.
Think about it. If my immigrant parents could leave $300k after a good life without hardship what kind of 'real' money is floating down to those whose parents accumulated more for fewer offspring ? Where would this 'easy' money go ?
Well you get the message. Time will tell when this stk Bull will falter and draw the shorts away from the gold market. OCTOBER. 1997.
Cheers - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:13
Addicted @RJ>(@RJ): - RJ: Thanks for the welcome ! Is it you that owns the aircraft carrier Kickin' Back ?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:11
RJ Another player>(Another player): - Addicted ( to Kitco ) - My shorts indeedy do bulge. Ask anyone who’s peered up the skirt! Welcome aboard. Short.... were up is down and lower is higher.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:05
RJ Stuff>(Stuff): - Goldbug Omega 1
- Falling, maybe………… Failing, not.
Paths Quoted - History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes ___Mark Twain.
- To which I: Using that reasoning, there will be plenty of $38 gold to be had in the future. ( please don’t quote me on that )
Mike Sheller @ Pepi, Issa goood boy!
- Tallented dog! Worth more than his weight in gold. Even worth more than the shoes he has chewed.
Tortfeasor @ 07:40
- With all this talk about the lifting my skirt, my sympathies are entirely with Jeeves.
Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:59
spirts ( ` ) : RJ, Your in good sprits this mourning
- I’m really not sure how to read this. Is this from spurts? Addressing my spritz? And about this mourning, who died? Oh yeah, gold.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 22:01
Byron @ I Can't Keep Up With These People:>(@ I Can't Keep Up With These People:): - Novice: What I told you about the one hour of postings at SI now seems to have changed to the last 25 messages. I guess people could not handle one hour's of posting at SI. : )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:54
Bob @...$313 NOT the Bottom ? >(@...$313 NOT the Bottom ? ): - Glenn: I missed your rationale to support the idea that $313 was NOT the bottom ( I presume ) in the current Bear. Was it something that your heard or deduced from the actors and action in the Pits or is it a 'gut' feeling ?
Cheers - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:52
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - Is anyone else around here just a little uneasy with with this new Balanced Budget deal and the accompanying mutual masturbation fest raging at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue? Why now? Does this prevent the fed from raising interest rates?
Fellow thinkers, I have an uneasy feeling that there is a band of politicians wheeling some kind of horse up to the castle gate. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:47
Lan Man @Closing Bell>(@Closing Bell): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly lower Tuesday,
giving back Monday's gains, on good volume, with the exception of
palladium which saw new contract highs on NYMEX.
The volume was solid again in COMEX gold, but much of the volume
was in the August/December and other switches, ahead of the August
gold first notice day Thursday, North American Equity Services
floor trader, John Geraghty, said. Fund covering and dealer buying
has provided good support in the past week or so, but strong
resistance is building up around $330.00 basis spot, where some
central bank interest was noted last week, he said.
Gold prices have been consolidating in the past three weeks after
hitting a 12-year low in early July at $314.00 an ounce. The slide
in prices has made life difficult for gold miners, with Australian
producer hedging noted in the past week despite the low prices,
though some gold miners have also been buying back hedges to book
profits.
Late Monday Newmont Gold Corp said it had purchased 1.1 million
ounces of gold to offset a hedge position put on at $420 an ounce,
booking a $100 million profit. We are currently estimating that
only four of 13 primary gold producers - Barrick, Cambior, Newmont,
and Placer Dome - will report positive earnings for 1997, Salomon
Brothers gold analyst Leanne Baker said.
As the spread between the price of gold and cash costs narrows,
some mines have been rendered uneconomic and have caused management
to suspend or close operations, she said. Barrick announced a 29
percent cutback in production at its El Indio mine ( in Chile ) , in
response to high labor costs, which management has attempted to
remedy with a lay off of almost 20 percent of the workers at the
mine.
COMEX September silver ended down 3.3 cents at $4.325 an ounce,
though September silver remains trapped in its $4.20-4.40 range,
after spot silver saw three year lows earlier this month. The spot
gold/silver ratio slipped to 75.04-to-1 Tuesday, after recovering
to a six month high at 76.79 in mid-July.
NYMEX October platinum closed down $4.20 an ounce at $4.211, after
three days of gains, which took the contract back to near the highs
seen in early June, when spot platinum saw a seven year high at
$500 an ounce. But the NYMEX October/January spread remained highly
backwardated around $12.50 an ounce, while the October NYMEX
platinum/COMEX gold spread was at contract highs of $93.00.
NYMEX September palladium gained a further $1.30 an ounce to
$194.30, after seeing a new life-of-contract high intraday at
$195.75, on light fund buying. Earlier prices had continued to
climb on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) overnight, helped by
broker shortcovering, and concerns about future Russian supplies,
after news Russia's precious metal export agency, Almaz, may close
its Tokyo office.
For the full text story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4181916-0cc
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 327.90 328.40 325.10 325.80 _3.70 414.50 314.60
Sep97 326.30 326.30 326.30 u326.60 _3.70 323.00 317.50
Oct97 329.50 330.50 327.50 327.80 _3.70 426.50 316.80
Dec97 332.00 332.50 329.10 329.80 _3.60 456.50 318.50
Feb98 334.50 334.50 331.80 331.90 _3.60 424.00 322.50
Apr98 335.30 335.30 334.10 333.90 _3.60 408.40 325.00
Aug98 339.80 339.80 339.30 d338.40 _3.60 403.80 345.70
Est. Sales 84358
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 431.50 431.50 429.50 430.20 _3.00 631.00 418.50
Sep97 434.50 436.50 428.00 432.50 _3.30 576.00 418.00
Dec97 441.00 442.50 435.00 438.80 _3.20 701.90 424.00
Mar98 446.00 446.50 443.00 445.00 _3.20 573.00 432.00
May98 450.50 451.50 450.50 448.80 _3.20 564.00 437.00
Est. Sales 8904
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 192.00 195.75 188.00 194.90 +1.30 195.00 128.75
Dec97 182.00 187.00 182.00 u187.90 +1.30 187.00 120.25
Est. Sales 590
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Oct97 422.00 425.50 417.00 421.10 _4.20 429.00 355.50
Jan98 406.00 411.00 406.00 408.60 _3.70 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 2761
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:43
Byron @ Strength>(@ Strength): - George: The strength in the XAU and HUI Indexes was great to see and a nice surprise. So far, I am only seeing strength as far as the XAU is concerned. What with the continuing record breaking in the Dow and the continuing strenght in the Dollar, the XAU is still doing fine, thank you. We are now back to where we broke on the Aussie gold sale news. At the moment the XAU is sitting just below the 50 day moving average line. Ever since the June break in the gold shares in 1996 everytime the XAU moved over the 50 days moving average, it eventually gave us its gains and resumed its downward course. I say this time IF we get over the 50 day moving average which is located just about resistence at 98, the Xau WILL NOT turn back this time and we will then have consensus that the bear market in the gold shares has been broken. ... All this in my humble opinion. But first we have to get over the 50 moving average otherwise.....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:42
Addicted to Kitco>(to Kitco): - RJ: Thank you, thank you, thank you ! I've been lurking all night, waiting for you to appear ! Partly due to your level of confidence about gold's direction, I put on some brand new shorts late last week. I was afraid for a little while yesterday that I might take it in the shorts, or perhaps lose my shorts altogether. But today, I experienced a very pronounced and pleasant swelling in those shorts. I sincerely hope that you took your own advice, hiked up your skirt, and gave your shorts some more exposure. If you did, you probably have a handsome bulge in your shorts also !
Gosh it's easy to make money when the Financial Establishment is in your corner. You don't have to bite no ears, or nuffin ! The trend is my friend, the trend is my friend ...
PS: Requiescat in Pace, Hepcat. Either the cat was an unappreciated financial genius, or he simply had more arse than a dunnyful of divas !
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:38
RJ >(): - Some,
The accolades - while few - to catboy for calling a 325 close today truly amaze me. Anybody, and I mean ANYBODY, who calls a closing price 2 weeks in advance is a fool, ignoramus, know-nothing, illiterate, analphabet, lowbrow, philistine, vulgarian, duffer, thickhead, dumbbell, dimwit, numskull, dunce, bonehead, blockhead, boob, goof, turkey, goose, bungler, greenhorn, novice, raw recruit, simpleton……..
To the list above add dupe to those that give him praise.
I know the lurking hepboy is fuming right about now but he believes too much, his own press. I am flabbergasted that anyone else does.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:34
Byron @ Next Week:>(@ Next Week:): - Anybody going to the annual Gold Show in Las Vegas next week? I understand that Luie, Luie of Wall Street Week will be the keynote speaker. Anybody who is going, please feel free to send info this way. Maybe you might even find a internet hookup at the show. Its August 5-6.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:32
BillInOregon Bjack@cdsnet.net>(Bjack@cdsnet.net): - Well, the freeways in So. Calif. are as crowded as I remember them, Everybody moves here @ 80 MPH. I do enjoy the nice resturants & the ambience. On to San Clemente & Laguena Beach and then Victorville & San Deigo. Hope the market ( gold ) is going up & all you guys are making money.
God Bless
Hello Reify Hope you are back from London
BillInOregon - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:06
George Cole news>(news): - I've said it before and will say it again -- reaction to news is by far the most important gauge of a market's technical position. If bullion and gold stocks continue to react well to news, an upside breakout is in the cards very shortly. If the good reaction to news fades, then all bets are off.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Should the Argentinian Postal Service be privatized? ( in Spanish )
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/97/07/29/o01.htm - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 21:01
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com): - FLASH! Oz Reserve Bank cuts rates! The RBA has just announced a 0.5% cut to Australia's official interest rates. This is the fifth cut this year and brings rates down to 5.0% - *below* U.S. rates for the first time since the Aussie Dollar floated in December 1983.
Check out the Australian Broadcasting Company's website at
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
They posted a story about a lessening of the expectation of a rate cut at 7:39AM Australian time. Two hours later ( at 9:45 ) , they were announcing the cut.
The RBA has cut rates five times since last July. They have also cut the PAR ( Prime Assets Ratio ) in half ( from 6% to 3% ) and, of course, they have sold 2/3 of their Gold so they can earn the Government some interest. This is what I call going for growth - and then some.
Re Gold: The $US Gold price now has a double top to go along with its recent double bottom. Trading range between $US 318 and $US 329 on the P&F chart. Check it out, with a comparison to the chart in $A at
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:58
Byron @ KISS>(@ KISS): - Another idea regarding taking a look into the past is to try changing the two 97's above ( the year spot ) to 96's and see what comes up from the past.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:58
Byron @ KISS>(@ KISS): - Another idea regarding taking a look into the past is to try changing the two 97's above ( the year spot ) to 96's and see what comes up from the past.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:54
nomercy 24hr gold quotes>(24hr gold quotes): - Panda try this URL, ( it was posted before ) and it's excellent
Gold up .80 to 326.60
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=core/dbc - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:44
panda @>(@): - TED -- Bears prefer cooler weather. :- ) )
I pretty sure that my EBN problem is ISP related, even if they don't want to admitt it! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:41
Miro Gold in Asia Tonight>(Gold in Asia Tonight): - Ted: Right on! The night is still young but it is the first after the
long time that the gold goes up instead of dropping after the Sydney
market opened. Have the same good feeling as Sunday night - it was the
first time that the gold did hold it's ground pretty good in Asia.
But.. I may be totally wrong
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:40
Information agent @>(@): - Tuesday July 29 2:32 PM EDT
Azeris in talks with US firms on $500m gold deal
BAKU, July 29 ( Reuter ) - Baku will present proposals to a consortium of U.S. companies on a possible $500 million joint deal to
mine gold in Azerbaijan during President Haydar Aliyev's visit to the United States, a top official said on Tuesday.
First Deputy Prime Minister Abbas Abbasov said the draft of the proposed deal envisaged joint exploration and exploitation of nine
gold mines with estimated reserves of 270 tonnes of gold, 250 tonnes of silver and 1.5 million tonnes of ore.
``If negotiations are successful, the American side may have a 49 percent stake in the contract,'' Abbasov told Reuters
He said the consortium was called RV Investment Group Services LLS but added he did not know which companies were
members.
Aliyev began a ten-day official state visit to the United States on Monday.
Abbasov said the gold sites were located in Azerbaijan's Nakhichevan autonomous republic, and the Zangelan, Kelbadjar, Tauz
and Kedabek regions of the country. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:38
Byron @ Looking At The Past:>(@ Looking At The Past:): - Just tried something I been meaning to do for a long time. Went back to the first several days of the Kitco Discussion Group commentaries. Just changed the dates above to April 10, l996 ( the first day of posting with an introduction by Bart ) and April 12, l996. I believe with the current system one can only attempt to read 5 days at a time. Interesting to see some of the names that popped up during the first few days. Pleanty to read in the archives when things get slow. And you don't need the search button.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:37
TED @noebnproblems>(@noebnproblems): - The early returns are in...EBN Gold up .60 and Silver unch....Evening Panda...a little better weather...eh!...
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:36
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:33
nomercy more costello bashing>(more costello bashing): - http://www.abc.net.au/news/nat/newsnat-30jul1997-7.htm
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:30
vronsky LET’S PASS THE SUPER IRA BILL>(LET’S PASS THE SUPER IRA BILL): - Proposed Super IRA Bill might increase US gold coin demand by $10 billion this year! The purpose of the Bill is to stimulate savings. Passage will boast bullion prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/sat001.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:26
Gusto det@opus1.com>(det@opus1.com): - Glenn: I,m sure I speak for many when I say your comments are greatly valued. Very few of us will ever experience the view from the trenches that you give us, all with real people and money on the line. Along with RJ, George Cole, Aurophile, Earl, Ted, and so many others that are active participants in the market, the discussion of your thinking and actions is a great help to those of us that aren,t quite so active. In your recent post you said that your bearish near term feelings had little to do with the action on the floor and everything to do with your numbers. Could you expand a little on the numbers you find important, without giving too much away of course?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:22
WW @NE>(@NE): - Glenn you stated we hit 340 many times then broke. Isnt actually true that we hit it ince in April and bounced around and broke in July. Not really a long time frame to create resistance. I respect your opinion but selling long term calls on a one day decline sounds like you are on the bear camp as many others are and as you stated before your floor compadres said there is never a wrong time to sell calls. When real new bulls begin it is many time with good upswings followed by sharp setbacks to keep the wall of worry there. If there is a wall of worry it is for gold and the price action is no longer in compliance with the long lasting bear ie everyone believes every decline. However, I heard analyst from Goldman said to expect stronger gold/ maybe they are not bearish enough ie no bottom yet or Goldman knows something.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:22
panda @?>(@?): - Curious and Donald -- I am still having quite a bit of trouble getting in to the EBN site. My success rate is about once in ten attempts. Strangely enough, the ABN site works O.K. Same people bring you that site ( Dow Jones ) .
Curious, you got me as to the URL faux pas! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:21
Curious @panda and all>(@panda and all): - Credit where credit is due - credit here belongs to NJ - I merely looked up the on-line version of the print story NJ reported.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:16
panda @credit belongs to CURIOUS (thanks for the story)>(@credit belongs to CURIOUS (thanks for the story)): -
AUGUST 4, 1997 VOL. 150 NO. 5
BUSINESS
WALL STREET'S DOOMSDAY
SCENARIO
BELIEVE IT: THE MARKET COULD CRASH, AND POLITICAL AND
FINANCIAL CHIEFS ARE MAKING CONTINGENCY PLANS
BY DANIEL KADLEC
Even with the Dow Jones Industrial Average flying high over 8000, few on Wall Street say they expect a crash anytime soon.
Indeed, the world is a prosperous, friendly place these days, and the coffee-shop buzz is, How do I get in the market? not
How do I get out? But make no mistake, the stock market could crash again. Mechanically, there is nothing in place to
guarantee that the Dow won't fall 1000 points by lunch and another 800 points in the afternoon. Get real! An 1,800-point
decline today would be the same 23% drop that occurred on Oct. 19, 1987. And that plunge took place after the Dow had
already fallen 17% from its speculative peak three months earlier, which was 10 years ago this month. An exact recurrence
would put the Dow at 5200 by mid-October.
Of course things are much different. The economy is on a firmer footing. And since that horrendous crash, much has been done
to forestall a repeat debacle. For example, brokerage firms and mutual-fund companies have invested billions of dollars in
technology so that they can answer all the calls and execute all the trades on the busiest days. The New York Stock Exchange,
which has never traded even 1 billion shares in a day, currently has the capacity to trade 3 billion shares. On the computerized
Nasdaq stock market, capacity was a mere 250 million shares a day in 1987 and is now 1 billion shares, headed for 1.5 billion
shares by the end of the year.
The N.Y.S.E. has adopted a flight of funny-named trading curbs: collars prevent certain computerized stock trading when the
Dow is up or down 50 points in a day; the sidecar rule gives small orders priority when the market is moving briskly; and
circuit breakers halt trading for 30 minutes when the Dow is down 350 points and for one hour when it is down 550 points.
The curbs ensure that investors have time to think. But at the end of the day, if what they think is that they should sell, their
brokers, the fund companies and the exchanges are ready to accommodate them--so look out below.
Again, this isn't to be taken as a crash prediction. When the bull market finally ends, which it must, it certainly doesn't have to
be in calamity. The more natural turn would be to a slow, grinding bear market, in which stocks fall some 20% to 30% over a
year or longer. No panic. Just a lot of selling, most likely hinged to a downturn in the economy.
But it's worth noting that even with all the adjustments since the '87 crash, another meltdown is quite possible. And that hasn't
been lost on a number of institutions quietly preparing for the worst. Some of the nation's largest mutual-fund companies, like
Vanguard and Fidelity, have detailed battle plans should the market fall apart. Brokerage firms seem less frenetic but no less
prepared, as is the government. Maybe these parties aren't as sanguine about the markets as they would have us believe.
In government, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, formed after the '87 crash, still meets every six weeks
for an hour or so to discuss things like bank failures and stock-market crashes. The group is chaired by Treasury Secretary
Robert Rubin and includes Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, as well the heads of the Securities and Exchange
Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and others. Officials are reluctant to say anything about contingency
planning out of concern that it would be misinterpreted as a statement on the market--something they want no part of. Early
last week Rubin was asked if he believed stock prices were too high. Those are the kind of judgments each investor has to
make for himself, he demurred.
What is known, though, is that the group is especially concerned about the potential for outflows from mutual funds, which
have become swollen with individual's deposits this decade. One of the group's first courses of action during a crash would be
to call fund companies to monitor activity. Another virtual given is that the Fed would cut interest rates, as it did in 1987,
putting enough money into the economy to ease bottlenecks. That single act--cutting rates--is widely viewed as having greatly
limited the carnage in '87.
The overriding belief of the President's group--and this is true of nearly all relevant institutions--is that virtually any market
decline would be tolerable so long as it was orderly. The ability to take all calls and get all trades done is paramount. It helps
avoid panic, which leads to irrational selling and a stock-market death spin. Says William Johnston, president of the N.Y.S.E.:
We see ourselves as a utility. Our job is to supply enough power at peak times to keep every light burning. Hence the Big
Board's vast trading capacity, built at a cost of $1 billion since '87.
Brokerages and fund companies have more complex battle plans. For starters, they have to be able to pick up the phone every
time it rings. That was a major problem in the '87 crash. Clients couldn't get through. And not every client who gets through
wants to trade. Many just want advice. Merrill Lynch's crisis plan is drawn from the '87 experience. It will depend on its
far-flung army of brokers to stay in contact with clients, while management's main task will be to stay in touch with brokers. At
the first sign of a meltdown, spokesman Jim Wiggins says, Merrill chairman David Komansky will gather the 13-member
management committee in a crisis room on the 32nd floor of the firm's New York City headquarters. The room has video
conferencing and a bank of phones. The first task will be to assess the reasons for the crash and decide quickly on a sell, hold
or buy strategy to communicate to the branches.
Fund companies probably have the toughest chore, and maybe that's why they seem most concerned with having an
emergency plan. They have thousands of clients and often no extensive broker network to hold hands--just an 800 number
and a staff of phone operators. For us the front door is the telephone, says Vanguard president John Brennan. Vanguard,
which manages some $300 billion, has what it calls a bear-market task force. In the past few months the company has been
taking pains to scale back its clients' expectations for returns and even warning that a bear market is inevitable. To prepare
itself, Vanguard has built an off-site war room loaded with phones and has a Swiss army of about 1,000 telephone
representatives that can be deployed almost instantly, doubling the firm's call capacity.
Fidelity Investments, with more than $500 billion in assets, is no less concerned about a crash crush. Steven Akin, who
manages Fidelity's electronic systems, says the firm can also double its phone capacity in an emergency, partly by dropping
many live phone and computer lines now stored in the cafeteria ceiling. During the past year, Fidelity has paid particular
attention to crisis planning. More dry runs, more computer simulations to make sure equipment is working, information is
disseminated quickly, and lines of credit are reconfirmed with our banks, says Robert Pozen, president of Fidelity
Management and Research Co.
In varying degrees, fund companies across the country are engaged in such planning, their central concern being the ability to
take phone calls. Of course, there is no perfect test of a contingency plan. No one can know exactly where the pressure points
lie until it's time to deal with them. The good news is that heads of state and money seem prepared for the worst. Or is that the
bad news?
--With reporting by Sam Allis/Boston, Jane Van Tassel/New York and Adam Zagorin/Washington
CRASHMEISTERS
If the stock market takes a severe hit, these are the key players who will decide what gets done in Washington and on Wall
Street to try to keep the damage to a minimum.
ROBERT RUBIN
Treasury Secretary
The President's point man. Would I.D. troubled firms and coordinate government plans
ALAN GREENSPAN
Fed Chairman
Top banker would work to assure liquidity and would stand ready to cut interest rates
DAVID KOMANSKY
CEO, Merrill Lynch
Would call on firm's experts to assess the problem and devise the best strategy for clients
JOHN J. BRENNAN
CEO, Vanguard
Would activate off-site war room and call on Swiss army of reps to field frantic calls
RICHARD GRASSO
CEO, N.Y.S.E.
On first alert--if the Dow fell 200 points--would be on the phone to Rubin, Greenspan
ROBERT POZEN
CEO, FMR Co.
Would activate cafeteria phone bank, double number of reps, monitor funds' cash
POSTMORTEM ON A BULL
A market dive would be big news. Here's where you would find the best info:
CNBC
Reigning champ of biz news delivers breathless coverage even on boring days. Imagine if it had better material
CNNfn
Biz-TV upstart airs continuous market coverage and offers steady diet of interviews with Wall Street's finest
WALL STREET JOURNAL
The online version ( wsj.com ) is stuffed with information and the latest market analysis
MOTLEY FOOL
Popular AOL forum ( keyword: fool ) would offer news and lots of chat from the hard hit
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:15
Curious er and Curiouser>(er and Curiouser): - Panda: Beats me, too !
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:13
EB Ron-sack...Risk Reward>(Ron-sack...Risk Reward): - Volatility still remains too high for Gold...am not in. I will w/w till it goes sideways for a while ( whenever that will be ) then maybe. I still haven't found anything good on the put side either. So, I will stay away...Now Platinum...hmmmm...My slightly out of the money calls are IN THE MONEY now and am w/w to turn them into a 'free trade'...that precious White has Explosive Fundamentals.
ANyway, I am too consumed by Cocoa, OJ, Grains, El Ninito now. There are Soooo many markets...too little time...has everyone had their frozen concentrate today?
Away
EB
Glenn-18:59 - Thanks, your last 2 sentences said it all. Right on Bro! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:12
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PANDA: Can you lift the Crashmeister article instead of posting it? I still can't read it. ( Still having EBN trouble here )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:12
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Donald: Yes, agree. Also, someone had commented that the subsequent events in the political arena during the 60's and 70's probabley had Mr. Nock spinning in his grave. He past on in August, l945.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Some Ford replacement parts up 10,000% since 1994 in Brazil.
http://200.246.213.8/gmnoti.htm#not12 - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:07
panda @!>(@!): - Curious -- It must be all of those dots..... :- )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:03
panda @let's try this>(@let's try this): - For Curious:
http://www.pathfinder.com/@@imx3bAYARe*7OLrh/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@imx3bAYARe*7OLrh/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 20:03
Curious @nobody.in.particular>(@nobody.in.particular): - Speaking of Asian currencies, the winner of the Best Name for an Asian Currency contest goes to Vietnam, with the Dong. Vietnamese currency traders are always very proud to be long dong.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:59
TED @Tort>(@Tort): - Tort: Funnel clouds...hail....flooding...and in Albuquerque of all places!....Did you drown...We had one of the driest julys on record in Nova Scotia....Must be El Nino....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Oversupply of Shanghai property ( Same URL as earlier post )
http://www.hongkong-window.com/shanghai/sstr/sst.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:45
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Asians take vows. ( Yuan Bloc too? )
http://www.hongkong-window.com/shanghai/sstr/sst.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:39
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Novice ( 17:03 ) Will do....Interesting night for Gold in Asia tonight..Are we headed below the recent low of 313 before the year is out as Glenn thinks or is the low already in...Sounds good about ABX but if I buy more I'm thinkin of NEM....to have some diversity in the gold share holdings...
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Yes. I read the essay, and the other post as well. He really speaks from the grave, as though that was his intent when he wrote it. I see that he was born in 1870. My grandfathers were born in 1872 and 1873 so I can relate to the mindset. As you get on in life you start to think about what you can leave behind to show that your being here made a difference. If that was his intent he has succeded.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:36
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - EB: By 'long haul' I mean the year 2000 or so -- or at least until the Dow isn't so over valued. BTW, I am trying to buy some puts, too. But where to buy? I've been waitin for a rally to 335 or so. Are you buying here?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:32
oldhand crashmeister >(crashmeister ): - To All: FYI, Crashmeister article can be viewed at:
http://www.pathfinder.com/@@EPSSyQYAPu@QyGae/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@EPSSyQYAPu@QyGae/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html
Unfortunately, clicking on the URL won't work. Try highlighting the underlined URL only. Then cut and paste the URL into an open window.
For some reason unknown to me, the URL is displayed twice, contiguously, by the Add A Comment facility. Anyone know why?
Thank you, NJ for finding and mentioning the article. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:30
NJ Time>(Time): - All : Second and last try. http://www.pathfinder.com/@@Ij7nPwYAQe@dQ8fG/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@Ij7nPwYAQe@dQ8fG/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:27
NJ Time>(Time): - Curious : Thanks. Let's see if this works. http://www.pathfinder.com/@@Ij7nPwYAQe@dQ8fG/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@Ij7nPwYAQe@dQ8fG/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:13
Novice @back-in-the-'burbs>(@back-in-the-'burbs): - Byron: After mowing my weeds ( er, lawn ) this evening here in Ontario ( Canada ) , I'll have to check it out the new SI feature you mentioned!
Ted: August 1 1997 Investor's Digest just received. It quotes the Yamamoto Forecast as follows: ABX is a money-making machine...selling at a discount...perhaps the final opportunity for investors to jump aboard...an excellent opportunity. Hope its not too bullish...caveat emptor, and all that. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:07
Curious @All>(@All): - Oops - sorry -that doesn't seem to work, does it ? Just log on to http://www.pathfinder.com and select Time.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:07
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - C-MAX: Yes, someday we will wish we still had our defense manufacturing capacity. We are too busy spending our money subsidizing having one kid after another,many of them crack babies at several hundred thousand each,, to subsidize what we should be. We are still doing all right in the manufacturing area like Callaway Golf clubs, etc. But how do you fight a war with golf clubs? How is our missile offense and defense capability? Maybe we do not need it now but when the Chinese catch up to us where will we be?
And then we have Iran, et al ( terrorists ) to worry about. It's a jungle out there. Didn't the Boy Scouts say something about BE PREPARED?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 19:02
Curious Time Article>(Time Article): - NJ and All: The Net version of the Time article NJ mentioned is here:
http://www.pathfinder.com/@@kuYO7AYAPe8rYTGp/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html>http://www.pathfinder.com/@@kuYO7AYAPe8rYTGp/time/magazine/1997/dom/970804/business.wal_strets_do.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:59
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - There is so much resistence at 340 spot that to cross over it would be incredible. We touched the 340.00 level many many times before going down and there are alot of traders under water from that level who would love to break-even. Even going to 340.00 and touching it would be impressive. I sold my Dec calls. I made a very small profit but I was happy with it as the market sold off today. I can see us going higher tomorrow but to go higher two days in a row would be tough. The funds look like they are setting the market up for another decline. This perception has nothing to do with being on the floor and everything to do with looking at my numbers. We were very oversold by dropping $20 in two days a couple weeks ago, but the market still has to deal with the fundamentals, being the stock market and bond market are still making new highes as I write this. Inflation or the perception of it atleast is low and declining. When the stock, bond and gold markets turn it going ot be a big one. I am starting to believe that Gold will not have any meanfull rallies until the final bottom so if you believe we are going to 370 then you can also believe in 525. I do not believe in either. It looks like the stock market had bigger rallies during the great depression then gold is about to have during this decline. Yes there were rallies in stocks during the depression as people even back then proclaimed That was the bottom!. The low we had around $313 was NOT the final low. When are we going to break it I could not say but at some point this year it will happen.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:59
EB Kuston @Phoenix>(Kuston @Phoenix): - You still around? How's the golf game? It's gotta be WAY too hot to be playin' nowadays...been in the low to mid 80's here...oh my!
away...to the range
EB - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:56
EB C'mon guy!!!...Sheeeeesh!... HELLO!...>(C'mon guy!!!...Sheeeeesh!... HELLO!...): - Ron in the sack - NOV 14 is not that far away...Why don't you buy some puts as long as your gambling and handing you hard earned cash to the brokerage house. Don't let them HAVE your money. Don't become a stat.
YNOT - Hepcat ( and I, yuk yuk ) said Gold@$350+/-$5.00. .80 is hardly missing the call. There was a SMALL $11.80 swing in between. My hats are off to the HEP-RAT-CAT. Hoorah!
2-as-in-weeks - Portent of things to come? Omen? Augur well? I'm suprised at you. Gold FELL today. $3.80. How can you you feel good?
GSC - Augurs well? et tu? $340.00 in a matter of days?
Goldaman - $330? $380.00 by August end?
Batman: Robin.
Robin: What is it Batman?
Batman: We have our work cut out for us here.
Robin: How about we just cut on out of here before we get sucked in to the dreaded Gold-gonna-rise-anytime coma.
Batman: Your right, and take that EB fellow with you. He is sure to get his butt kicked if he stays here tonight.
Robin: OK. I love doing good deeds.
Batman: AWAY! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:46
NJ Crashmeisters>(Crashmeisters): - All : August 4, 1997 issue of the Time magazine is a must read for all. It carries a three page article on contingency plans in place at the federal, stock exchange, brokerage firms and mutual fund levels. Crashmeisters named are Rubin, Greenspan, Komansky of Merrill, Grasso of NYSE, Brennan of Vanguard and Pozen of FMR CO. I wish I had the knohow to reprint the article on this site, but please do get a copy and read it.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:35
Byron @ The Post>(@ The Post): - Donald: Thanks for the El Nino site info. By the way, did you get to see or have a chance to read my two Albert Jay Nock essays I posted late last night about 23:30 or so.?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:27
EB Michaelangelo is to marble what Ben is to golf...for eternity...>(Michaelangelo is to marble what Ben is to golf...for eternity...): - Golf is gonna miss you buddy... http://www.usatoday.com/news/comment/ncguest.htm
Now your playin the Best courses...
away ( :- (
EB - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:22
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Philippine Central Bank reduces overnight Interest Rate from 25% to 22%
http://www.philstar.com/site/Preview/assets/cgi_bin/nph-general.cgi?i29_jul29&BUS1 - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:21
George Cole $340>($340): - GOLDMAN:
After today's very good gold stock action I wouldn’t be surprised if bullion does indeed hit $340 in a matter of days. Still wouldn't bet the family farm though. Being of a conservative bent, I am building up gold mutual fund positions, but do not have the intestinal fortitude for options and futures. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:11
Miro @Gold and Dow>(@Gold and Dow): - Goldman: if I remember charts right, gold has always started its upward
movement before the stocks market peaked and crashed - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:10
panda @Uh Oh, spin masters at work!>(@Uh Oh, spin masters at work!): - White House 'hopes' that there's no stock crash... But we're ready!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/29/y0004_z00_14.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Latest Currency Scores: Soros 0, Malaysia 1
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/29yprra.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 18:03
goldman donald>(donald): - Stands on its own. I suspect that the wild hyperventilating bullish
hordes will push the Dow higher for awhile even when faced with a
disturbing datum such as a rocketing gold price. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GOLDMAN: Is your gold forecast tied to a particular direction on the Dow or does it stand on its own?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:40
Donald AHome>(AHome): - BYRON, RICHARD BURKE: Here is the El Nino site.
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/otis/otis_glbl_00_sstanomaly.gif - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:38
Curious @goldman>(@goldman): - I've tried to commune with everybody, even Hepcat. All I know is, this market is as confused as a newborn babe in a topless bar !!!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:36
goldman curious>(curious): - I've been communing with the short-sellers.
It's actually relatively easy to establish psychic contact--just close
your eyes and imagine that you are one of them. Try it! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:32
Byron @ The Discovery Channel:>(@ The Discovery Channel:): - Novice: I just noticed on the SI Gold Forum main page where all the threads are listed, that you can now pull up ALL comments during THE LAST HOUR from all the various gold thread sites. Is this new .. Gosh, now I can keep track of all the food fights on an hour-by-hour basis. 8= )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:26
Curious @Goldman>(@Goldman): - er...why ? Are you clairvoyant ? Have you been reading tea-leaves ? Does Goldman=Greenspan ? Have you had an e-mail from Hepcat ? What is the basis for your prescience ?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:16
goldman 330>(330): - Should punch through 330 tomorrow or the next day.
By the time 340 is reached, there will be wholesale panic buying.
380 by the end of August! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:13
Byron @The Public Library>(@The Public Library): - Richard Burke: Someone ( I forget who ) post a URL address where you can get a map which displays the effects of El Nino. Apparently it is updated periodically with changes in movements of El Nino. Several weeks ago I heard that the maximum point North in the Pacific for El Nino was to be in Sept-Oct, l997 before it starts slowly receeding back South. Well, looks like interesting times this fall and winter on the Left Coast. Any further updates are appreciated. I notice that the CRB Index is doing well. Back over 240. Omens of things to come in the grain markets. The CRB is still heavily weighted towards the grains even with recent changes.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:07
REB na>(na): - No, I did not type in that URL!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:06
bw Re: WSF, TWA-800>(Re: WSF, TWA-800): - WSF: I believe you are on to something big here. In my opinion the stock market mania is but one manifestation of the larger mass hypnosis enveloping most of the educated world. TWA flight 800 provides a confirmation of this thesis. 154 or so people reported seeing a missle like trace connect with flight 800 immediately before the explosion. Many of these people were military and civilian airman. FBI agents steal private property ( evidence ) in the dead of the night. The FBI crime lab has been busy converting damning evidence into something else.
Truth is just what they say it is. It matters not what we see, photograph or hear. The big lie on flight 800 is that a coverup this big could never fly. Too many people would talk.
After world war II similar rumblings would arise about Pearl Harbor. FDR was said to have aided the debacle. Preposterous, said the press, how could you keep such a thing quiet. Well now after all these years we know FDR did aid the destruction and death at Pearl Harbor. To learn the mechanics of world-wide coverups in general and the Pearl Harbor coverup in perticular, read John Tolands ( the preeminent world war II historian ) excellent book Infamy You will see an example of how threatened power bends, discredits, crushes or eliminates everyone in its path. That this book could be published in this country gives me hope for us. Lets see if the books on TWA flight 800 can be published. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:04
REB na>(na): - One minute graph of XAU today, illustrating strong close:
http://fast.quote.com/fq/briefing/chart?symbols=INDEX:$XAU.X&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key= - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:03
Novice @SI cockfights>(@SI cockfights): - Byron: Yes, the blood-letting on some of the SI threads make recent Kitco squabbles look like a Sunday School picnic. Bema's SI thread has had disagreements ( of course ) but they've generally been quite civil. Ted: send Peter Monk after Cerro Casale, OK?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 17:01
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - BOB M: Your 14:5l says it well. P. T. Barnum couldn't have done better.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:57
6pak Go Figure ! @ Canada>(Go Figure ! @ Canada): - Inflation/Deflation, anyone's guess, I still suggest it is here and gain-
ing in strength, as per the two news story items presented, one has as
its support regarding inflation, *words*. The other looks like *action*
that suggests Deflation, from the street level.
Inflation a no-show as U.S. wage gains remain modest.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.US-Economy.html
Ontario Federation of Labour - 2,500 rawdy delegates cleared the decks
yesterday for a Provincewide General Strike, and then marched on
Queen's Park in a show of solidarity.
Canadian Labour don't get it !
Be Quiet -- Consume --and Die
That's the New Economy ( Modern Artificial Control )
http://www.canoe.ca/OttawaSun/front1.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:53
TED @nailz>(@nailz): - Nailz ( 15:33 ) 77 degrees with a nice ocean breeze here....Are WE headed back down...
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:48
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - Richard Burke: Anything that disrupts the extent investment and economic paradigms will be good for gold
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:42
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - RJ: Score one for your side today!
The really interesting thing about today's action was the ability of the gold stocks to hold up exceedingly well in the face of a $3.70 plunge in the bullion price. As most of you know I much prefer the stocks to be acting better than bullion than visa versa. This augurs well for a quick rebound back to the $330 area. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold Ratio 25.09 at the close. There have been 4 or 5 new highs in the Dow since July 11th, But the D/G Ratio did not confirm any of them. The Ratio remains in favor of gold over the Dow.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:37
TED @novice>(@novice): - Hi Novice!...Considering Comex Gold was down 3.70 the XAU did alright ( down .36 ) ...Comex Silver dowm three cents and Platinum down 4.20
....Big day for bank stox as BKX up 14.78 ( 2.18% ) ....Dow @ new record ( up 53.42 ) but what else is new?...Saw the tall ships sail by today on their way to the fortress at Louisbourg.... - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:34
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca): - Byron, Nick and Others Interested: Thanks for the el nino report Nick. It adds some confirmation to the report on Investors Hotline ( April 4/97 ) which contained an interview with Evelyn Browning Garriss who publishes the Browning Newsletter. Ms. Garriss is an expert in climatologic factors in investing. She maintains that in the past few years we have been seeing a major world climate change which will continue for about 20 years. She says these things come in cycles. What is happening is nothing new. A tropical current in the Atlantic is expected to remain unusually warm for 20 years and is generating more hurricanes. A cool Atlantic current in the NE and Canada has nearly destroyed the Canadian fishing, and is extending cold storms further down along the Eastern Seaboard.The El Ninos will continue to bring flooding and drought to the Pacific Coast and Texas. In BC it has brought the mackeral north to eat our salmon fry. Since 1989, we have been returning to more normal, ie higher activity, volcanic action which will create more extreme climatic conditions.
All of this has investment implications. As some of the most fundamental elements of the economy - property values, insurance, food production, transportation and communication - are affected by changing climate, all aspects of the economy will change. What does this mean for gold? I would have to think it is positive. Any comments? - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:31
2 End-of-Day>(End-of-Day): - Senor Vronsky - Very nice 1525 post with ( good! thank you... ) URL to article about IRA legislation lifting demand for PM coinage.
As we all know, there have been long seasons when coins were an outstanding investment.
Gold stocks _not_ getting tanked by bullion slip today - An omen? Does this augur well? A portent of good things? Methinks it does, me laddies.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:21
Novice @Kitcoitis>(@Kitcoitis): - Hi Ted: A little uneasy about gold's direction from here, but we're still battin .500 for the week ( meanwhile, gold-dissin' Abby's SUNW and IBM are .000 for Mon. & Tues ) . Off topic: I thought you were in for some spectacular Mira Bay weather after hearing about your lightning strike this a.m. Happy kayaking!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:17
VOODOO Forecaster@NY>(Forecaster@NY): - Elaine Garzarelli today predicted that long term interest rates would drop to 6% this
year leading to a Dow of 8800 and an S&P of 990. If the interest rates drop lower, than the
Dow and S&P would be even higher.
Given recent track record - could be market tank time.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 16:10
Scotty More deflation>(More deflation): - Just heard that Bollinger guy on CNBC. He started off saying that deflation is a real possibility -- the first time the US has experienced this in 40 years. And the market has not factored that risk in.
Then the phone rang and I missed the rest of his schpiel. Did anyone else catch this at about 4pm Eastern time?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:58
YNOT @Heppies prediction>(@Heppies prediction): - Hepcat was wrong; he missed his 3-2-5 prediction for today's close by .80!!:- )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:56
nailz WATCHING CNBC....>(WATCHING CNBC....): - ALL.... Hope you just heard Ron Insanna's comments on the new era economics. He went through all the reasons we have heard for the new era. Then he said it appears all the good news had been already rumored into the stx...Now it is time to sell on the news....He said we may be through with the running of the bull....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:47
Bob A atwork>(atwork): - Wall st J. article kicked RYO down by 12% so far today.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NAILZ: Some stats for you from Eastern CT shore. Temp 78, wind SE @ 10MPH
Humidity 52% Perfect sunny day. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:43
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - All: Broker just called to tell me that I got a partial fill on some twenty-dollar Dec 380 calls today. May try to pick up some more tomorrow. I know it's a LONG shot, but I'm in for the LONG haul, and know a bargain when it hits me in the face hard enough. No one may know what tomorrow will bring.
Savage: That's my worry, too. But this guy's frying his eggs on high.
WSF: I certainly don't think you're out of touch. I tend to approach the mkt from a fundamentalist's news-moves-the-mkt perspective. I'd stay away from those funds, though ( but whatever you do, don't listen to me because everything I've done so far has been wrong, wrong, wrong ) . - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean default rate rises to 50 per day
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0730/m0730b09.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:33
nailz SEND SOME COOL.....>(SEND SOME COOL.....): - TED....Send some of that cool weather that you call hot over here...Yesterday was 98 with a heat index of 115....Yes, that is 93% humidity....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:31
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korea says export woes due to overly strong Korean Won.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0730/m0730b04.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:31
panda @?>(@?): - O.K. Anybody want to buy Omega Research stock You know, the folks who brought you Trade Station and Super Charts... Here's the I.P.O.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/29/z0000_z00_12.html
Could this be another sign? ( of a market top? )
But then again, if the market goes down, who will want charting software? Of course, there's always the soon to be broke goldbugs who would be charting .... :- ) ) - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:31
Byron @ Hanging Around The 50:>(@ Hanging Around The 50:): - XAU and HUI Indexes still showing strenght considering... Still hanging around that 50 days moving average. Sign of strenght which I like to see. Stay tuned.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:26
Donald @Home>(@Home): - George Soros and Korean currency.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0730/m0730b08.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:25
vronsky LET’S PASS THE SUPER IRA BILL>(LET’S PASS THE SUPER IRA BILL): - Proposed Super IRA Bill might increase US gold coin demand by $10 billion this year! The purpose of the Bill is to stimulate savings. Passage will undoubtedly boast bullion prices:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/sat001.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:24
nailz TRADING RANGE.....>(TRADING RANGE.....): - SAVAGE.....I hope I am right about the range...If so, $16.00 wide will allow plenty of room to make a few bucks....I think we will gently head down and check the bottom of the range ( $314.00 roughly ) and if it holds, you will see the safest buying opportunity in years...You will then have the opportunity to re-check the top of the range at $329.50......IMHO and for what it is worth....HAPPY TRADING.....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:22
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean Forex losses.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0730/m0730b03.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:14
Byron @ Crowning Time:>(@ Crowning Time:): - Yesterday, August Gold up about $3.00 today down about $3.40. The battle between the shorts and the longs continues. ... When this battle is over who will wear the crown?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 15:07
Byron @ Scamming:>(@ Scamming:): - Bob M: Bre-x was a pretty big scam. Quess who was left holding the bag on that one. NOT the big boys.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 14:54
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - Steve-Perth- What the heck is going on down under..I cannot believe that the people are turning in their guns down there..they are going to be very sorry someday.....from an American who believes that the Second Amendment is the last roadblock to tyranny..
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 14:51
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - In a way, one can look at this current stock market bull, as being one of the largest transfers of wealth in this nations history. In essence they have the entire working class purchasing stock from the wealthiest companies and individuals on the promise that the market will continue to rise until they go to retrieve their money along with profit. But it seems as if the money is gravitating to where it always goes, to the ones at the top. When the shakeout comes, the working class will get stuck as usual, holding the worthless paper..This could be the biggest scam ever perpertrated on the working class..
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 14:37
TED mutebuttonison>(mutebuttonison): - Hi Novice!....Just in the door and I aready don't know what I'm doin inside....staring at the screen when the North Atlantic ocean is out there on a spectacular day...yes,another one!...Typical Maritime's weather...eh...Gold shares holdin up pretty good considering CNN shows gold down 3.60....XAU down 1.07....with mute button firmly depressed ( on CNBC ) ...and head phones strapped on....Was yesterday a temporary top @329.5 and are we goin down to test recent low from here? Full of questions and NO answers.....See ya Maritimer!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 14:25
Byron @ The Wild Juniors:>(@ The Wild Juniors:): - Novice: Yes, I quess someone had to fill the void left by Bre-X. Haven't visited the dirts lately, but the last time I checked there seemed to be a food fight every few minutes. : )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 14:24
WSF @NC>(@NC): - Ron- How about Clinton falling, along with the FBI and NTSB? I'm refering to the Air National Guard pilot's account of the TWA crash, on the AP wires today. They didn't ask him any questions! Then they go to Congress and state ( I saw this ) that there was nothing to any of the eyewitness accounts ( and they weren't pressed at all ) . I don't want to turn this site into a conspiracy site, but I think this speaks to a potential crisis of confidence, which has obvious relevance to this site. Am I out of touch on this? Should I just buy index funds and shut up?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 14:23
Skylark @>(@): - JOHN DISNEY: A few months back, Harmony proposed to acquire Grootvlei. Did this action actually take place, and if so, at approximately what time.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:57
Novice @Bee--Gee--Ooo>(@Bee--Gee--Ooo): - Byron: Thanks for news likely explaining the early strength in Bema this morning. Have seen ya over at SI on the Bema line recently...the inmates have been a tad mutinous over the past couple of months and with reason, although Bema still has performed better than most golds.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:48
Savage !!>(!!): - RON: Nothing sticks to teflon.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:37
vronsky THE RED BARON>(THE RED BARON): - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron727.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:25
Savage good call>(good call): - NAILZ: Looks like you're right...we have a 329 range roof to contend with.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:19
Byron @ Heard On The Web:>(@ Heard On The Web:): - Apparently there is a news article in todays Wall Street Journal ( page C18 ) regarding potential takeover targets in the gold mining business. Since Bema Gold ( BGO ) was one of the stocks listed that probably accounted for its early bounce this morning.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:05
Byron @ Flux & Chaos>(@ Flux & Chaos): - Nick: Regarding your 10:48 of today, the El Nino report is very interesting. Worst in 90 years. Well there goes Marin County, California again. In 1982 it really got creamed by El Nino.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 13:05
Ron More Presidential Sleeze>(More Presidential Sleeze): - I'm more and more convinced our boy-president is going to take a fall. How will it affect the mkts? At first blush ( :- ) , one might believe that it could only help the Dow ( after all, what has Clinton ever done to increase mkt confidence? ) , but a prolonged period of govt'l turmoil during which nothing gets done may have the opposite effect.
From http://www.drudgereport.com
**WORLD EXCLUSIVE**
MUST CREDIT THE DRUDGE REPORT
Kathleen Willey is looking for a lawyer. According to multiple sources in and out of
government who have knowledge of the story, this former low-level White House staffer
personally approached President Clinton a few years ago looking for more work and additional
responsibilities, feeling underutilized in the Office of the Social Secretary.
The DRUDGE REPORT first noted on July 4 that NEWSWEEK ace investigative reporter Michael
Isikoff was hot on the trail of a woman who claims to have been sexually propositioned by the
President on federal property. ...Then he fondled me, she is known to have told Isikoff, the DRUDGE REPORT has
learned from several sources.
Every attempt was made to reach Willey. Her phone number has recently been disconnected.
Shortly after the incident occurred, the woman, now believed to be Kathleen Willey, left her White House job.
Isikoff has held back on the explosive story because the woman has refused to go on the record with her account.
Nevertheless, the events surrounding Willey have become the talk of the Washington underground and threaten to
undermine President Clinton's defense in the ongoing Paula Jones sexual harassment case.
It is not known if the woman has been in contact with the Jones camp, although one source at the WASHINGTON
TIMES -- who has recently become familiar with the story -- suspects that she hasn't.
Others familiar with the situation suggest that Willey has clammed up and is not talking to anyone about what
occurred, including Isikoff.
If she is saying those things... she's lying, Drudge, don't report it, a White House official warned late on
Monday.
The Willey story has spread throughout the Executive Mansion that has gone on alert for any and all Willey
moves, or press.
One White House staffer strongly denies that a Kathleen Willey has ever been employed at the White House during
the Clinton Administration.
Washington waits... - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 12:45
Mike Sheller @The Moonster>(@The Moonster): - MOONEY: So what are you telling me? I should move next door to an English castle?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 12:43
Mike Sheller @Mooney>(@Mooney): - I believe for every drop of rain that falls, a flower grows... Pepi says hi!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 12:28
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - URIS: Very appropriate! Maybe we both should be looking at some paper
shredder stocks. Thanks. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 11:56
NEWS @for you>(@for you): -
LONDON, July 29 ( Reuter ) - Gold was firmer in London on
Tuesday but at the same time was being undermined by dealer
nervousness over whether or not the market could hold on at the
top end of its recent range.
It seems to be trying to recover and is trying
$329.00-$330.00 for the fourth time. This is clearly its
breakout point, said Karen Jones, technical analyst at Credit
Suisse First Boston.
Nobody wants to get caught long at the top of the range but
it only has to get to $331-$332 to get into a different level.
It's a tricky situation, a dealer said.
Gold fixed at $327.50 per ounce compared with $325.75 on
Monday when it closed at $327.25/$327.75.
Gold and silver both closed firmer in New York despite a
surging dollar which had reached a 7-1/2 year high against the
mark earlier on Monday.
Dealers said short covering by funds and professionals led
to bullion closing around $328.50/$329.25 in New York.
However long liquidation in the Far East stopped any rally
reducing trade to tight ranges just below the U.S. close.
Dealers noted also small parcels of Australian producer
selling added to the weight on the market joined by profit
taking in early European trading.
The strength and subsequent easing in the platinum and
palladium market was also a factor in the gold price moves,
dealers said.
But a move by U.S. producer Newmont Mining to buy back 1.1
million ounces of hedged gold to reassert our confidence in the
metal, according to a statement from company chairman Ronald
Cambre.
He also noted the unwinding would lock in a price
differential of about $90 over the price of gold.
It added some spice to the market, a dealer said.
Silver was a cent off at $4.37/$4.39.
Silver has more potential than gold at the moment although
a gold price at $331-$332 would help it, a dealer said.
He said a gap on the September chart suggested if silver got
through $4.41-$4.42, the next 10 cents would be gained quickly.
Monday's surge in platinum and palladium only got as far as
Tokyo after which profittaking weakened prices in Europe.
Platinum was indicated at $425.00/$428.00 down $4.50 and
palladium was off $6.00 at $198.00/$201.00.
The over the counter options expire at 1330 GMT with the
$325.00 strike the most significant one for gold.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 11:55
vronsky US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION>(US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION): - Japan’s divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Must RELOAD Guru Milhouse page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 11:50
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport): - Leland: The many that you refer to in your post have a good reason to
think as they do. The current Wall St has generated a lot of money for
them.When the bubble bursts they will find that the money machine has
transformed itself into nothing more than a paper shreader. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 11:26
GS Anything but gold>(Anything but gold): - Soros invests $980 mln in Russian Svyazinvest -FT
LONDON, July 29 ( Reuter ) - George Soros funds took about
half of the 25 percent of Russian telecommunications company
Svyazinvest privatised last week, investing almost $980 million,
the Financial Times said on Tuesday.
The newspaper quoted financier Soros as saying he had
changed his investment view on Russia, which had now become the
most interesting emerging market in the world.
Soros, who also denied he had been involved in the recent
turmoil in south-east Asian currencies, said his investment view
on Russia had changed after the appointment of reformist First
Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov to the government.
I took that as an indication that there would be a serious
attempt made to progress from robber capitalism to legitimate
capitalism where shareholder rights are protected, the paper
quoted Soros as saying from his home in Southampton, New York.
I think events so far have reinforced my hypothesis, he
added.
Soros said his funds' total exposure to Russia totalled $2.5
billion following the Svyazinvest deal.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 11:24
Novice @breakout or fakeout?>(@breakout or fakeout?): - George Cole: Your prediction for the track of gold price this morning looks spot-on...the dead low water mark, so far at least, was at 0930 hrs.
Beemers: Bema performing pretty well ( better than the gold price might dictate ) this a.m. Anybody with scuttlebutt about this potential takeover candidate
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 11:06
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - The real question, according to my buddy in San Francisco, is whether the Clinton-Blair team will handle the next crash as adroitly as Reagan-Thatcher handled the last one? Does Clinton-Blair even have a clue? He made one other observation: Greenie's getting real old, and the thing that may very well roil this market more than any other of the speculative scenarios being tossed around is Greenspan falling ill. Comments?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:59
spirts `>(`): - RJ,Your in good sprits this mourning
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:48
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Sun Spot activity looks kind of active
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/images/latest_eit_195.gif
I have just come back from Brisbane after two days talking to scientists at CSIRO. One of them showed me at graph that they had on El Nino over the last ten years. It showed the latest reading at the worst level for
the period with the latest drop the most parabolic. Sort of looked like the way that gold fell out of bed recently.
When commenting on the El Nino, this scientist said to me that the prediction he has been quoted for, in the coming El Nino season, is that it will be the worst El Nino to be experienced over the last 90 years.
Sounds kind of like flux and chaos to me. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:24
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - The six Randgold mines had an awful quarter.
The 3 making up the new Durban deep were really bad
with DD losing 3.09 rands/share versus a loss of 1.15
prior quarter, Blyvoor losing 63 cents versus a loss of
5 cents last quarter, amd Buffles losing 1.19 versus
a profit of 1.08 prior quarter. The major reason for the
collapse were underground fires at buffles and blyvoor
and a seismic at buffles which dropped grade from 6.81
g/tn to 5.44. Gold production at buffels fell 22 per cent.
and 10 per cent at blyvoor and DD. DD was hampered by
heavy rains which flooded underground reserves.
ERPM did better than expected with a loss of 6 cents
versus 11 cent before. Harmony made 49 cents versus a loss
of 76 cents prior quarter. Groootvlei had a total
disaster losing 3.47 a share versus 55 cent the prior
quarter.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:22
RJ Fliperous!!!>(Fliperous!!!): - Mooney - You are a wordsmith. I’m starting a Mooney Dictionary. It will probably sell for $49.95 and be published by Random House. I apologize for my previous tone which bordered on Floccinaucinihilipilification.
By the way, I loved your Ode to Hepcat which, for those that missed it, I will take the liberty of reposting it here.
Ode to Hepcat
The Wind-Sucker when he winx at Kitco seems to have a predilection for garboil.
The subsequent dretching of our site is deserving of the cucking-stool.
The doctor, ( if such he really be ) , seems to have a venatical fixation
that also requires he venenate all around.
His own fliperous pumpkinification is barely worth a snirtle or a keak.
In fact, he is hardly even worthy of the term 'fonkin' or 'fopdoodle'. Heanling, hufty-tufty, killcow, or mobard are terms which so readily come to mind.
Zoinks' attempts to brangle and his floccinaucinihilipilification habit evoks the desire to cry 'Gardyloo' and mean it! The effort would, in the end, be wasted.
For, as we all by now realise, the Dragoo is nothing more than a whifling.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:22
JohnC @Sunny_Brisbane_@nd_another_angry_Aussie_!>(@Sunny_Brisbane_@nd_another_angry_Aussie_!): - Good Morning to all posters and lurkers and thank you yet again Bart for providing such a thought provoking forum.
A mate of mine emailed me the other day and I thought I might throw the chat between two Aussies into the ring FWIW.
Q. John,
What do you think is going to happen to the gold price. Normandy has taken
a pounding but is recovering slowly. As I understand most of its production
for the next 2 to 4 years has been sold forward, I thought it would be
shielded from the reserve banks decision. Have you still got a position in
Normandy?
A. The sentiment on Gold is extremely bearish which is always a condition that must be present at market turns. So we could have seen the bottom on 4th July. But No sure sign yet. Gold seems to have made a nice $14 bounce up, and Australian Gold stocks have definately rebounded very strongly. Normandy low $1.22, closed today at $1.60, up 12c in 2 days. Also the volume traded has been very high about a week ago on the rapid reversal up from $1.22.
On 2 days last week I think it was, it was the highest volume stock traded on the ASX. Market reversals ( in this case a recovery ) typically exhibit this sort of price/time/volume characteristics. HOWEVER....... All of these do not assure us that this is what is happening. Frequently it is only a temporary recovery whilst the oversold condition is dissapated ( sp? ) and the market having caught up with itself, then plunges to new lows.
Normandy has quite a lot of forward sales that lock in mining profits for about 3 years I think, but total hedging only covers around 20% of the company's total reserves.
And I currently hold a long position in Normandy via warrants so my views should be taken with that in mind. WE MUST ALL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR OWN SHARETRADING DECISIONS !
Something that should be said... the whole Gold Mining industry is incredulous at the RBA and particularly Costello for a disgraceful and imprudent decision firstly, and secondly Costello's ill considered and off the cuff remark that Gold no longer had a place in the international financial system. ( I'm paraphrasing ) .
Could you imagine Fischer ( Trade Minister ) coming out and telling the world to stop buying wool because synthetics will replace it..... What sort of an outcry would that produce?
One view I have read is that Costello and the RBA are mere puppets of Rubin and Greenspan and our reserves have been used as cannon fodder to help keep the price of gold tumbling. The US cannot afford any currency to look an attractive alternative to US$ Treasury Bonds or Shares, because they know there is a North Atlantic bubble that they have lost control of and if just a fraction of the hot money is withdrawn then the bubble will be pricked.
Historical Note 1. The Us has sold ZERO tons of IT'S gold reserves.
Historical Note 2. From August? 1929 to 1933, the Dow Jones declined something like 89%.
Just tonight on Channel 7 there was a segment on Gold from the Diggers and Dealer's conference being held in Kalgoorlie today. One Mining Co. CEO talked about the Diggers in WW1 & 2 at least knowing the enemy because they wore a different colour hat. IE... Costello and the RBA were the enemy within. A couple of short interviews with miners talking about losing work.
Same CEO deferring $20m expansion, 150 jobs including engineers now not going to happen. Showed an 85 tonne truck laden with ore driving out of the open pit and he said they would be lucky to get a teaspoon of Gold out of it, that's how tight things are.
So Mate no one knows where Gold ( or Silver, Platinum or Palladium for that matter ) are going, but I do know that politicians have a horrible record when it comes to forecasting markets. I suspect that Costello and the RBA may have sold out the small diversification in our FX reserves at the market lows.
For non-Aussies or Kiwi's , Diggers as well as meaning miners is slang for foot-soldiers ( G.I.'s ) .
I welcome comments from the esteemed seers present.
JohnC. Brisbane. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:18
George Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks): - Gold stocks holding up pretty well so far considering steep drop in bullion.
Mooney: About time the big boys stepped up to the plate. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:17
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Indonesia propping up the rupiah:
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100u.htm
Thai central bank boss hounded out:
http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news100e.htm - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:12
George Cole screw the call owners>(screw the call owners): - Looks like the call owners will get screwed as usual. Interesting to see how fast Au recovers after option expiration.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:05
Mooney @ron.jett.Steve.Kaplan.Newmont.and.RJ>(@ron.jett.Steve.Kaplan.Newmont.and.RJ): - ron - Before I head off I would like to say that I believe that the move by Newmont will be the first of many similar buy backs by the mining companies and that this will add much fuel to the fire in the coming rally.
RJ - No arguement with your money making philosophy ( except remember that that 10% has to be AFTER taxes ) , but you still didn't answer the question as to what time period is, to you, the forseeable future. Also I hope you did read that article. Also I sincerely believe that there are a lot of RJ's out there. :- ) Also I sincerely believe that gold will not hit $275 again in history. Also I believe that I've been wrong before. Also I believe that a while back you questioned my previous predictions and that one of these days I'll have to review them with you but in the meantime I'll let you know ( at the risk of sounding fliperous ) that I believe that they have been better than you believe them to be. Also I believe that I have to go now. :- ) - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 10:04
RJ Do I hear $300?>(Do I hear $300?): - Another failure for gold today, I like those 329 shorts I put in yesterday. Finally kicked that Russian swine flu that had me sidelined last week, time to do some serious trading. I feel great!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:43
panda @>(@): - Currency markets stirring again, but it's a beautiful day today! Going to enjoy it, BBL!
FWIW, sometimes it's best to close ones' eyes for a short time with regards to the markets. :- ) - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:40
panda @!>(@!): - Donald -- I E-mailed my ISP and they replied that, It was little slow in loading, but seemed to work O.K. Funny, doesn't work O.K. for me! ABN, from the same folks at Dow Jones, seems to work fine though...
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:23
Mooney @Good.Morning.Mike!>(@Good.Morning.Mike!): - In the Believe it or Not department - A man I grew up calling 'Uncle' ( he was my father's good friend from work ) retired with his wife to a lovely home in England which was built in the shadow of an ancient castle's wall. One day digging in his garden he unearthed an ancient gold coin. What did he do? He kept quiet about it and ceased working in the garden as he didn't want to upset the serenity of his home and neighbourhood with a mini gold rush to the area. Have a nice day All. And Mike - Give Pepi a pat from me.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:22
Bridge Gold Mining Outlook>(Gold Mining Outlook): -
Interesting site I found http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:14
TED seakayaking>(seakayaking): - Stox are down ( S+P futes down 4.10 ) Long bond is down 9 ticks....Comex Gold is down 1.90;Silver down 1.3 cents and Paltinum down 6.80...But the weather is GREAT and I'm UP for some seakayaking....BBL dudes!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:12
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world
owes you nothing. It was here first. ----- Mark Twain
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:07
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - Mooney - In some respects I agree. What Klinton and Cohen ( and before him Dr. Perry ) are doing with the military is misguided - they are spending too much money on GI salary, family-type benefits, housing, retirement, entitlements, $10,000 bonuses for pilots, and the like. ( A kinder, gentler warrior..!?!? ) They have also gone overboard with some of their high $ tech program, primarily in aircraft systems ( $ 1 billion per SINGLE B-2 aircraft !?!? Ditto the F-22 ) . These technologies don’t target the type of battles that will be fought in the future. The military should get back to the basics.
Goldbug23 - You’re not totally wrong. China has a plan ( long term ) and they are in the process of executing it with their partners. But the plan isn’t global ( yet ) . Their military is not currently capable of global aspirations.
Jack - Agree. But don’t discount China’s ability to potentially dominate that particular part of the world.
BTW, the Star Wars/missile defense shield was a big bluff to get the former Soviet Union to fund a counter program ( i.e., break their bank ) and to flush out a few spies trying to sell/steal U.S. secrets. It was also a big science project with a secondary objectives of pumping fresh money into the military and a sputtering U.S. economy . ( The funny part was that some of the science projects had promise. But the amount of money to implement such a system would have cost a lot more than a few B-2s. )
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - If the XAU does as well as the Joburg Index is doing the XAU would close at 96.82 today.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 09:01
ron jett rjett@mindspring.com>(rjett@mindspring.com): - To all - this special update this morning re: gold
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:57
TED @panda>(@panda): - Panda: Sent it down....just for you dude!...Looks like Glenn was right about sellers at yesterday's closing price as Comex Gold is down 1.70; Silver down 1.3 cents and Platinum down 5.30....S+P futures down 1.50..
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PANDA: re: EBN. I am having a failure on about 75% of my attempts since last Wednesday or so.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:50
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - URIS: What do you say about many thinking that Wall Street has invented
the biggest money making machine ever built?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:48
panda @>(@): - TED -- I'm really enjoying your COOOL Canadian air this morning! Now, if I could get my ISP to recognize the EBN URL! It used to work fine up until about a week ago. Now it's an iffy proposition. Employment cost data in line with expectations, but the bonds did a small about face when the data was released. I wonder, are some bond players seeing a less friendly future ahead for the markets
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:42
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport): - Donald@Home
OK - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:36
panda @>(@): - Cmax -- No apology necessary! I thought it was kind of funny actually!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - URIS: The full moon is August 18th. Earthquake activity increases as the gravitational pull of the moon puts more pressure on the crust of the earth. Extremes of tides are also at at the time of the full moon. That does not mean I think the mothers of Japan are on to something.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:32
Cmax China a 21st century world power?>(China a 21st century world power?): - Will China be THE world power of the 21st century?
Well, they have at least 2 things straight:
1. Their economy is not based on service feeding on service, as in the U.S. and the degenerated socialsitic societies of Europe. THEY realize that manufacturing is the foundation of any economy, and that service can only exist as a satellite to production.
2. They are the originators of paper money ( more than 5,000 years ago ) and no VERY well that paper is a scam, and that ONLY gold is money. After the meltdown, they will be the ones who are still standing, and their production base will already be primed.
Panda: Sorry about the identity crisis, 'just in a hurry off to work, and did not proof. Anyhow.....it is a good theory about what would happen to the stock market's circuit breakers in a crash. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:24
TED @tort>(@tort): - Tort: Thanks for the quick response to my ignorant question!...Still kinda in the dark ....but what else is new?....Good luck on the bread machine.....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:19
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport): - Predicting gold prices makes about as much sense as predicting earthquakes on Aug 17 ( re; True Sidekick at 03:44 )
We seem to have some Loony's roaming about. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:05
RLM System Optimization>(System Optimization): - DA and All
Would appreciate your opinion on optimizing a mechanical trading system to a particular trading instrument ( e.g. specific funds or stocks or futures ) . I’ve read that some are strongly against it, while others advocate it. I have a mechanical trading system based on a combination of indicators whose days vary. I’ve tested it against the various instruments that I trade, and have selected the days that give me the most profits per trade for that instrument, while keeping my loosing trades under control. I’ve observed slight difference in the days depending on the instrument. Would appreciate opinions from those with experience with mechanical trading systems.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:02
Mike Sheller @ the Tortfeasor>(@ the Tortfeasor): - TORT: re turning Maple Leafs into Bre-X stock, Pepi has a distinct disdain for paper. Decorum forbids me to tell you in public what he does on it.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 08:00
Robert @ Your Service>(@ Your Service): -
There are strange things done, 'neath the midnight sun, by the men who moil for gold. The Arctic Trails have their secret tales, that would make your blood run cold. The Northern Lights have seen queer sights, but the queerest they ever did see, it was on the marge at Lake LeBarge, they cremated Sam McGee. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:59
Wooer of gold>(of gold): - Come on baby! I showed you my COD now lets see your WAD
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:59
Tortfeasor Incoming>(Incoming): - Ted, watch that seagull. It may drop something in your eye.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:54
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Donald, thanks for the link to financial indexes.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:54
JIN DOWN A BIT..>(DOWN A BIT..): - ALL,
gold down a bit... http://www.abn.com.sg/feeds/commodities.html..
let see whether hold or xxxxxx! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:45
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Joburg Gold Index up .7%
http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:41
TED @JIN>(@JIN): - Hi JIN! That's OK my friend.....Does Gold pull back at the 329.50 level today?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:41
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Ted, we are thinking as one again. I'm off to the mailbox. I think I hear dogs howling out there.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:40
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning): - Hi, Ted, good to see you up mentally ruminating on the state of the markets. We've been up to our ankles in water here in Albuquerque--some of you may think Albuquerque is in the desert--I've got news for you The Taco Belt is changing into a tropical paradise. That was not the joke of the day, but the following will pass as such:
A wealthy couple had planned to go out for the evening.
The woman of the house decided to give their butler,
Jeeves, the rest of the night off.
She said they would be home very late, and that he should
just enjoy his evening.
As it turned out, however, the wife wasn't having a good
time at the party, so she came home early, alone. Her
husband had to stay there, as several of his important
clients were there.
As the woman walked into her house, she saw Jeeves
sitting by himself in the dining room. She called for him to
follow her, and led him into the master bedroom. She then
closed and locked the door.
She looked at him and smiled. Jeeves, she said. Take
off my dress.
He did this carefully. Jeeves, she continued. Take off
my stockings and garter. He silently obeyed her.
Jeeves, she then said. Remove my bra and panties.
As he did this, the tension continued to mount. She looked
at him and then said, Jeeves, if I ever catch you wearing
my clothes again, you're fired! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:39
TED @tort>(@tort): - Mornin Tort!...Just sent ya a missive....Where the hell is the joke Hi JIN and thanks for posting for me as I don't have much to say as usual...
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:37
JIN TED ...WRONG KEY!SORRY..>(TED ...WRONG KEY!SORRY..): - TED,
MISSED TYPE!
RGDS JIN - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:36
Ted wgc.....another sale?!>(wgc.....another sale?!): - ted,
good day!read this from the news,try this:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/29/y0023_z00_1.html
abt thai situation...the thai central bank chief just stepped down today.though the help from japan,not sure whether can cure the wound?cause think that s.e asia...HURT TOO MUCH!NEWS FROM BANGKOK POST:
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/home.html
the local gold /jewellery markets is low....sick !!
anyway..take it easy!
rgds jin - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:31
Tortfeasor Pepi>(Pepi): - Mike Sheller, that Pepi is some kind of dog--kind of a shaggy alchemist sounds like to me. Do you suppose he could change my Candian Maple Leafs into a some Bre-X stock certificates?
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 07:31
Auric @Chilling Out>(@Chilling Out): -
Good morning all. July is about over. Good riddance!! The dog days of August are just about here. It's time to get Serius about gold! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 06:49
TED @JIN>(@JIN): - JIN ( 22:55 ) The proposed IMF bailout of the Thai financial system sure turned the currency markets-SET around in a hurry!...The Baht soared Tuesday and your Ringgit did pretty good too....Taiwan had the only weak currency...
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 06:24
Mike Sheller @Mooney>(@Mooney): - Mooney, you were right. I can't believe it. Gold IS an incredible store of value. Just yesterday I let Pepi out into the backyard in the morning to do his business. He starts digging frantically in a spot where I had strategically buried some Kruggerrands about a year ago ( just in case the government suddenly confiscates the patio furniture and anything else made of metal, you know ) . Well what does Pepi unearth, but a section of red Spanish roofing tile! I comes over and say, as all dog owners inevitably do, What's that Pepi, what you got boy? Issa goood boy, whatchu got? And then, before you know it, me an the missus, an Pep, are down there on the ground digging with our forepaws wildly. Well, Mooney, to make a long story short, though I know you'd like to savor all the details, the scene here at the end of the day is unbelievable. Simply unbelieveable. The cranes, and earthmovers, the Lilco truckis, and the Asplundh tree crane cats, not to mention all the RE brokers looking for the listing... For there, in our humble backyard, exposed by all that digging, sits glistening in the Long Island sun a magnificent Beverly Hills mansion! Just like you said. Now that's what I call a store of value. I gotta call Blanchard right away.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 06:12
paths paths@ibm.net>(paths@ibm.net): - ...and a strong dollar will doom gold for the foreseeable future...
RJ since when has there ever been a foreseeable future :} the closest that one can come to this may be... History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes ___Mark Twain, ( so beware of falling equities, hardhat area ) . - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 06:07
TED @lightning>(@lightning): - If any of you missed my brilliant posts last night there was a reason for my silence as lightning struck the line leading into the house...Spark city and poof went the power...kudos to power co.for commin out ar 5 AM ta fix it!..EBN Gold down 1.12....Silver @ unch....
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:57
George Cole earthquake>(earthquake): - True Sidekick: I'm quite bullish, but sure hope it doesn't take the kind of diaster you forecast to trigger the golden fireworks. If your prediction comes true, it will be one of the greatest prophecies ever, but I have grave doubts.
Perhaps you can enlighten us about why you think this quake will occur precisely on August 17. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:42
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - JACK: I trust you are right about our missiles. The enemy ( whoever ) also knows about them and can target them, just as you had targets. I am a worrier, and that has kept me out of trouble many times. Old IBM's THINK should be THINK AHEAD on defense.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:34
Goldbug Omega -1 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - RJ: We certainly agree on WW. We do not, however, agree on gold - at this point in time ( love that phrase, thanks Dick ) . I happen to believe, like many here, the house of derivities and paper money backed by the full faith and credit is close to falling. The mania in the markets is exhibit one. We are close to crisis time!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:34
Jack I wouldn't worry about China's Military>(I wouldn't worry about China's Military): -
Goldbug23: I used to work on projects siting home bases for mobile ICBM's. They are all over the western states.
As big as these babies were, they could go anywhere real fast, unload and then run. I know that's no consolation for those who can't run. I'm sure that we still have these babies ready and they can be anywhere.
If we had to return to the manufacturing base, it to would happen real fast.
Right now, let the gold price rise. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:16
Goldbug23 @Who Knows>(@Who Knows): - JACK: Your question re where is all that gold going that is going into Korea? My guess, and that is all we can do, is it is going to China. It is part of China's power plan. China is to the 90's what Germany was to the 30's. China will be the 21st century power as the U. S. was the power in the 20th century. We have read here that China will be the number one manufacturing country in the world by 2020. They are devoting a great deal to their peacekeeping efforts - remember how Teddy Roosevelt was builing up our fleet in the early 1900's? That was to the military what technology is now-a la missiles - on defense as well as offense. Reagan was right on with his star war efforts which we of course did not follow. Some day that will be regretted. So, my take is we should be paying more attention to China's intentions re the world. China knows gold may well be the power when all the paper folds in the next financial crisis. When? Who knows. At least the Goldbugs here are following the Boy Scout motto.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:14
The Last Goldbug S. Korean Gold Conduit>(S. Korean Gold Conduit): -
Looks like gold shiped thru S.Korea is about 1.7 times the 167 tonne Austrailia is reputed to have sold, so far for 1997. Wonder whats going on? - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 04:03
True Sidekick @suckinonthenipple>(@suckinonthenipple): - Jojo: I have FOUR words for you.
Gaa Gaa Goo Goo! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 03:56
Jojo Mother's Report>(Mother's Report): - There is a pregnant mothers network/group here in Japan who practice communicating with their babies. Babies, as it is well known, have access to supernatural sources of knowledge which they lose shortly after birth. The mother's group newsletter published the date of 15 August for the big earthquake, based on prenatal reports of babies to their mothers. These were apparently independent geographically dispersed reports - lending therefore, substantial credibility to the babies' claims.
I requested that the babies be queried by their mothers regarding the various markets...no answer from them yet.
Jojo
This is not a joke about the newsletter - in case anyone wonders if I believe it:
hahahahahahahahahahahha
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 03:44
True Sidekick @The time is near>(@The time is near): - The time is upon us to get on the gold rocket ship. As reported earlier, July was the turn around month and August will be the fireworks. Very sad to say, the big one will take place in Japan on Aug 17th. Got that- write it down. The earthquake will be a very bad one ( 8+ ) centered off Tokyo in the ocean. Of course, the learned Kitcoites no what that event would mean for the fate of the US dollar and US Treasury Bond market. Expect an overreaction in US T-Bond interest rates to carry above the 10% level. Expect the US stock market and world markets to fall in excess of 40%. Expect the price of gold to soar above the $600 level. Gold stocks will soar along with gold, especially the unhedged seniors and gold rich juniors such as Bema Gold. Euro Nevada and Franco Nevada are two other great stocks to own! Those who are short gold, beware!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 02:07
Jack May be of significance>(May be of significance): -
High transshipments of gold through Korea during first six months of 1997. Imports of 9.77 million ounces followed by exports of 9.2 million ounces. Story is that Koreans sell and then invest money in high interest domestic paper. DO THEY HAVE TO IMPORT TO DO THAT More important is who is buying, Japan, China or is on a round trip back to Austrailia. - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 01:35
Lan Man Closing Bell P M s>(Closing Bell P M s): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended higher across the
board Monday, despite a fresh surge in the U.S. dollar overnight,
and platinum group metals ( PGMs ) ended higher despite the
resumption of Russian exports this month.
The U.S. dollar surged to a seven-and-a-half-year high against the
deutschemark overnight as well as a seven-year high in the U.S.
dollar trade weighted index. But the rallies in gold and silver
still look mostly like short covering by funds and proprietary
traders, Refco New York analyst Tim Porter said.
December gold's five-day moving average crossed above its 21-day
moving average at the close Monday, for the first time since May.
COMEX gold estimated total volume Monday was a solid 78,000 lots,
but COMEX gold open interest fell a further 6,924 lots Friday to
200,869 contracts, continuing the decline from 18 month highs at
222,069 on July 16.
Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended up 3.8 cents at $4.358 an
ounce, with the September/December spread narrowing further to 5.5
cents. September silver remains trapped in its $4.20-4.40 range,
after spot silver saw three year lows earlier this month.
In the last month, the two highest volume days in silver came on
big washout days, while the lowest volume day came on the biggest
attempt to rally, which even failed to hold on the day, and that
tells us the trend is down, CRB analyst Terry Roggensack said.
Platinum group metals ( PGM ) prices continued to recover Monday from
the two month lows seen in early July, despite the resumption of
Russian exports in the past week. PGM futures on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange ( TOCOM ) rose sharply again overnight to their
highest levels in two months, helped by the stronger dollar/yen
rate.
But news that Toyota Motor Corp plans to introduce low emission
vehicle models later this year that will use more platinum group
metals in their autocatalysts than existing models, also helped. On
the supply side, the first Russian shipments of palladium and
platinum, under a new contract with Japanese trade houses, has now
arrived in Japan, but reports overnight indicated no further metal
was due to arrive in Japan under the contracts until August 7.
For the full text story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4164463-4e2
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 326.00 330.00 326.00 329.50 +3.00 414.50 314.60
Oct97 327.50 332.20 327.50 331.50 +3.20 426.50 316.80
Dec97 329.30 334.00 329.30 333.40 +3.40 456.50 318.50
Feb98 331.90 333.80 331.90 335.50 +3.40 424.00 322.50
Apr98 334.50 336.00 334.50 337.50 +3.30 408.40 325.00
Jun98 337.00 337.00 337.00 339.70 +3.30 470.00 327.50
Dec98 343.40 345.00 345.00 346.60 +3.20 506.80 334.50
Est. Sales 38407
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 434.00 434.00 432.50 433.20 +3.50 631.00 418.50
Sep97 432.50 438.00 432.00 435.80 +3.80 576.00 418.00
Dec97 438.50 444.00 438.00 442.00 +3.80 701.90 424.00
Mar98 446.50 448.50 446.50 448.20 +3.80 573.00 432.00
May98 451.00 451.00 451.00 452.00 +3.80 564.00 437.00
Dec98 464.50 467.00 464.50 466.10 +3.80 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 12445
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 190.50 195.00 188.90 193.60 +3.95 194.00 128.75
Dec97 181.65 187.00 181.65 u186.60 +4.95 183.50 120.25
Est. Sales 2524
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 427.00 436.10 427.00 435.30 +3.60 473.80 353.50
Oct97 419.00 427.00 419.00 425.30 +8.60 429.00 355.50
Jan98 404.70 414.00 403.00 412.30 +7.60 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 1637
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 01:15
RJ Whoooo Ahhhhh>(Whoooo Ahhhhh): - WW -
Thank you for explaining my belief system so eloquently. I’ve been searching for the words, but words aren’t really my thing. You really nailed it. Perhaps you could e-mail me to keep me up to date on my philosophy.
Donald -
Public Service, Schmublic Service. Thank you for the forgiveness.
Mooney -
Let me see…… Store value instead of create wealth. Hmmmmmm, interesting concept. You mean instead of finding a vehicle that gives a 10% return and then watching it double every seven years.? $38 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = $608. I don’t know about you guys, but I’ll take the $608. I’ll use it to buy platinum. We already had this discussion. The numbers do not support buying and holding gold at any point in history - excluding times of crisis. Lets see in 1966 you could buy a very nice pipe for $38. How many can you buy with $608? Put THAT in your pipes.
More Gold -
What I mean is: Zero, nil, zilch, zip, nothing, infinitely little, naught, nix, love ( in tennis ) , strike-out, goose egg, blank, cipher, nullity, nothingness, nonexistence, insubstantiality, none, nary, absence, vacuum, nadir, rock bottom, etc…. ( By the way, Rock Bottom was also a nemesis of Felix The Cat )
Mooney @ Yours: should be read by all serious gold traders, investors and RJ's!
- Since when was RJ a plural ?
VERY MAD AUSSIE!!!! ( On Top Of Aussie Gold.Sales ) :
They will buy it back!!! At $250!!!
Demi God -
î aîn’t tellîn.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 01:06
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - Byron - AJ Nock. Interesting, a new one for me, buried gem.
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 00:43
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Hepcat - Don't forget to take your pills!, and Goodnight Glenn, wherever you might be!
- Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 00:26
Mooney @gunrunner>(@gunrunner): - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:47
gunrunner ( gunrunnr@bsc.net ) :
This is a perfect example of why the Canadian armed forces ( and the good ole U.S. of A. ) can STILL cut back on expenditures! - Date: Tue Jul 29 1997 00:12
ezau swami@sag>(swami@sag): - Here is a little something for your late night reading. Brzilian stocks
anyone? http://www.dailyoutrage.com/essay.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:58
VERY MAD AUSSIE!!!! On Top Of Aussie Gold.Sales>(On Top Of Aussie Gold.Sales): - REF: George Cole ( gold rally ) : Steve Kaplan reports rumors that the Australian Reserve Bank may repurchase some of the gold it sold.
In the event that gold continues to rise, the managers of the Australian Central Bank should receive the American treatment for gross incompetence: THEY SHOULD BE TARDED AND FEATHERED!!!!!!! -- AND PUT ON DISPLAY FOR THE BAFOONS THAT THEY ARE!!!! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:53
EB O.C. semi-demi PL guru dude...>(O.C. semi-demi PL guru dude...): - Oh yes! The other white metal...to the NORTH. That lady of LARGE dimensions is warming the chords daily. Her final tune will be her best yet...
Anyway, you seem invigorated ( from a posting point of view ) . Did you get out of town? Did any strange cars or lend lease trucks follow you out of town? If you were riding your Harley it must have been quite the easy ditch. I am sure you will let us know of your saga.
By the way, how do you get the ~, `, ^, etc. above the letters? Did I miss that day in basic typing? Is this a dumb question? I would truly like to know?
AwAy
eb - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:53
Walt alpha@hole>(alpha@hole): - To 6pack:
The gold was part of the total wealth of Great Britain. It was
liquidated by Great Britain in Montreal ( changed into Dollars )
to execute the war. Roosevelt refused to ask the American Congress
( people ) to supply war material on credit to Great Britain as long
as Britain still had wealth in the form of gold and securities.
The gold shipped from Great Britain alo included the gold from
Norway, Denmark and other Nazi occupied areas. It had been rescued
with great difficulties prior to the Nazi occupation of these countries. France was very fortunate. They had ordered 500 million worth
of war material from the U.S.A. but lost out to the Nazis before
the material was shipped. Great Britain took delivery of the material
and paid for it. France rescued their gold to their coloninal dependents
in North Africa and West Indies. They retained all their gold during the
war and after the war!.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:43
6pak Mooney>(Mooney): - : ) : ) : )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:41
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Nite all. Time to go home and re-boot.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:38
AlKahulik http://idt.net/~kulick>(http://idt.net/~kulick): - ABX sure does look like a bottom.
http://www.tscn.com/wsc/Corporate_Snapshot.html?TSym=.MGO&Symbol=abx - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:33
George Cole gold rally>(gold rally): - Sieve Kaplan reports rumors that the Australian Reserve Bank may repurchase some of the gold it sold. Has anybody else heard this?
Why is this gold rally different from the many rallies that have fizzled over the past 18 months? Answer -- it is taking place in the face of very bad news -- a surging dollar and strong stock markets around the world. Also, sentiment is considerably more negative than it was during the previous rally attempts, while gold and gold stocks are considerably cheaper, both absolutely and relative to the overall stock market. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:20
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
It's GREAT seeing Fidelity's Precious Metals & American Gold
being the TOP sector percentage performers of the day! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:17
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- You are being a bit harsh I think. The proper way to play commodities IS to sell at resistance and buy at support. That way it only need travel against you very little before you reverse the trade. Optionally, wait for a break above, but even that is not totally infallible.
Given the currency instabilities in the western Pacific area, you have to admit that this has helped to support the dollar. The Feds must be 'pleased' about this. Perhaps they 'participated' in it somehow. A bit of strength in the metals should be expected under this currency scenario. Will it last for long? Short term, it depends on what it does at/after options expiration! Slightly longer term, it depends a lot on how the currency mess over there precipitates. Then, it depends on how the stox do. Personally, being more of a day trader than not, I do not care as I take it as it comes. I'm sure that those of you who are longer term investors do care. That means you might have to chew your nails a bit.
I don't know if it'll go lower. I don't know that it'll go higher. If it does, there are areas of resistance where one pays more attention. It is at one now! Times are NOW at hand for it to prove itself worthy or not. If it makes this hurdle, then there is another fairly close by. Let's just say that Rome wasn't built in a day. Let us also say that the funeral pyre may not be extinguished yet.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:12
Mooney @6pak>(@6pak): - 6Pak - c'mon man, ehhh! I toll yuu Ii wass drinkin' da suds en thnn yuu goes ann cuuueses moi of shuttin' da messangger? S'cuizze mee butt I'ssse innecent.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:10
Byron @ Time To Get Ready To Go Home:>(@ Time To Get Ready To Go Home:): - And this will be the last one tonight. It was written by Mr. Nock I believe in the 1930's also. A cure for the libertarian blues:
http://logoplex.com/resources/sfa/files/isaiah.html
I just surprisingly discovered these articles by Albert Jay Nock on the Internet about 1/2 hour ago while doing some surfing. What a surprise. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:09
6pak Central Banks @ Responsibility>(Central Banks @ Responsibility): - Walt @ 21:08: Thanks for the information, I had not heard of the book,
Operation Fish nor, the information regarding the Sun Life Building,
in Montreal.
The question, was this gold transfered between Central Banks, and not
under the control of the Ministry of Finance, resulting, in the fact,
that the Canadian citizen, can not be held responsible for the actions
of the Central Banks.
Take Care. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 23:01
Savage !!!>(!!!): - APH; RJ; & GLENN: THANK YOU for responding to my questions.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:56
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - To All: Something from my favorite writer: Albert Jay Nock:
http://www.free-enterprise.org/ld96spvs.htm - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:55
JIN SOROS STORM SEEM OVER!!>(SOROS STORM SEEM OVER!!): - TED,
The soros storm seems over!whewwwwwwwwww!
rgds - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:55
6pak Mooney @ They shoot horses don't they>(Mooney @ They shoot horses don't they): - Mooney @ 21:08: The numbers don't jive ?
Sorry Mooney, don't shoot the messenger, I only referenced a web site,
Go get the reporter. Go Get Him Mooney : ) : ) : )
Take Care, eh! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:52
Mooney @Nick.@10:15>(@Nick.@10:15): - Nick's 10:15 URL should be read by all serious gold traders, investors and RJ's!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:46
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: You can only be considered guilty of being very helpful.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:42
Byron @ Guilty As Charged:>(@ Guilty As Charged:): - Donald: I plead Guilty.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:32
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Were you the person who put me on to this XAU Ratio chart? Notice what happens every time the green line touches the red line.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:29
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Were you the person who put me on to this XAU Ratio chart? Notice what happens every time the green line touches the red line.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:25
Mooney Tides.A.Turning!>(Tides.A.Turning!): - As some have stated here recently the perception and attitude has been slowly starting to do a 180 lately and this is just another minor example ( excerpt also ) from a service that e-mails me. ( GMT )
From:
Global Minerals & Technologies gmt@globalminerals.com
GMT remains very bullish on its outlook on gold. With the U.S. dollar and
stock market surging you might expect gold prices to drop. BUT..... the US
dollar and markets have overtaken currency fundamentals and corporate
profits, there will probably be a pullback in one or both which will
contribute to a much awaited rally in gold. If the US$ climbs any higher,
expect some retaliation from the Japanese.
Thats it for this weeks macro-economics 101.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:25
Granny My it's a quiet cloudless night>(My it's a quiet cloudless night): - G'nite all. A very nice day all around, wasn't it?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:24
MoreGold @?>(@?): - RJ, you say: There is zero reason for gold to rise, and every reason for it to fall.
Where do you get zero reason for Gold to rise? There are many reasons
valid reasons for Gold to rise. However there may be more, or stronger reasons for it to fall at the moment. Currently the balance of information may tip in favor of a fall, but the momentum could easily be shifted the other way, and no-one can guarantee that this can't happen. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:19
Byron @ I Told You So:>(@ I Told You So:): - To Techkies:
See, I told you so, the XAU Index does have its nose pressed up against the 50 Days Moving Average. I say tomorrow it goes through the M.A. and the 98 area and we are off to the races. Let see tommorw at 9:30 EST we have Gold Options expiration. Well, maybe, we also have the expiration of the Golden Bear.
http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/quote?symbols=%24xau.x
At the Retrieve Mode:
1. ) Click on the down arrow.
2. ) then click on the Daily Chart
3. ) and finally the Submit Button. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:16
APH --------------->(---------------): - Savage - I'm not sure I understand your question. If you're wanting to buy Dec Gold at 336 on a buy stop ( currently 333 ) the upside is limited to 340. I'd rather wait until the market closes up above 340. Your down side is about 325, to risk $900 to make $400 isn't a very good ratio. As of yet we are not in a bull market like the S&P, when it seems like you can buy any where and make money. Wait for the market to come back to you and not you to it. You'll have less risk and bigger winners.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:15
Mooney @RJ.and.Donald>(@RJ.and.Donald): - RJ - I also think you missed the point of Donald's 21:33, that being that, for instance, a person could have sold their Beverly Hills mansion in 1966, converted the money to gold, buried the gold in the back yard, dug the gold up in 1997, and repurchased the home ( mansion ) for the same amount ( weight ) of gold that they buried in 1966. In the interim some other sucker would have paid the upkeep, repairs and taxes.
Gold therefore equals the ultimate store of value.
ACW - Put that in your pipe and smoke it! ( Same goes to you cherokee! ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:14
Donald @Home>(@Home): - RJ: In a sense you are right about gold at $38 was a lousy investment in 1966. But so were stocks. You don't have your money back yet in purchasing power terms. And to top it off, you owe 28% Cap Gains tax on both the stocks and the gold, when you had no gain at all.
The only way to show all the governments of the world how much damage they are doing is to push the price of gold through the roof. So, as a good citizen, you should swing over to the long side as a public service. We will forgive your previous transgressions. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:11
WW @RJ>(@RJ): - Alas our poor poor RJ believes there is a surging economy with record bankruptcies/highest debt in history/ would he have believed the story of the Soviet Economy which its govt touted as good growth, low inflation, full employment and even a trade surplus. Ah yes but they were playing with funny money and figures/ which we all know well/ anything to maintain confidence!! SOUND FAMILIAR? The stk mkt parabolic highs only indicate more potential ferocity of the downside and I believe with every investment of money with higher expectations that the surge will continue/ all the greater the crash and dislocation when the moment of truth inevitably occurs.
Gold just the opposite/ the world hates it and is record short in face of it being in the smallest ratio of gold to money stock in history. Gold is in shortage and the CB stash is pennies compared to the paper created. Even a scintilla of paper into to gold and bye bye. Its fun to watch this.
I wish RJ and his shorts gute luck mein freund!!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:09
kiwi taking flight>(taking flight): - RJ: rhetorically speaking, of course?
Off to London to face the music, no GOLD there either! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:07
vronsky URL FOR THE EXACT PAGE WHEN POSSIBLE>(URL FOR THE EXACT PAGE WHEN POSSIBLE): - Att: 2 - Many Thanks for your suggestion. When possible we always try to give the exact URL. However, some of our frequent postings require that the previous page be RELOADED, otherwise you would be surfing your cache - and therefore would be seeing only last week's posting.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:04
RJ !!>(!!): - Mooney - Good point.......
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:02
vronsky US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION>(US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION): - Japan’s divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Must RELOAD Guru Milhouse page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:02
2 Dear Senor Vronsky>(Dear Senor Vronsky): - If you want me to read something, please give the URL that goes directly to the analysis/comment you want read, not the URL to the main page. It's too much work to figure out which one you were talking about once I get to the main page.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 22:00
Mooney @RJ@21:41>(@RJ@21:41): - RJ - You missed the point of Ben Franklins' message from the grave that I posted here a couple of weeks ago - that being that if you offer something of value to people too cheaply they will think it is worthless ( or worth less! ) and not buy. IT IS ALWAYS TRUE THAT AT THE BOTTOM MOST DON'T BELIEVE IT AND ARE WAITING TO BUY LOWER!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: When I read that news about Newmont covering for Santa Fe it ocurred to me that Bema, which I own and had thought of as an attractive take over candidate, might not be so attractive after all if they are encumbered with forward obligations.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:51
RJ !!!>(!!!): - George - I guess I just get in line and follow the crowd. Its very sad that I am so mistaken.
Mooney - Early next year or after G7 CBs sell more gold......
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:47
RJ He He Heee Heeeee Hee He He He HEEEEEE!>(He He Heee Heeeee Hee He He He HEEEEEE!): - Commissar, Komitet Gosudarstvennoî Bezopasnosti: You haven’t heard the last of me !!!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:44
Mooney @Walt.and.RJ>(@Walt.and.RJ): - Walt- Thanks! Always love an historical read! But 6pak's numbers still don't jive. Maybe after I digest the book. Hmmmm? RJ - You may be right ...or...? But just one question. How far is the forseeable future as far as you're concerned? Mike Sheller - comments? cherokee? George? APH has given the most precise predictions to date; and to date he is the most accurate. Doesn't mean that the tide may not turn sooner than the present perfect pundits' prescient predictions!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:43
DJ Reserves P.S.>(Reserves P.S.): - Bill Bennett - These reserves were based on platinum price of $376 per oz. and palladium at $125 per oz.!!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:42
George Cole Newmont>(Newmont): - Donald: The time to worry about the yellow will be when RJ and the multude who think like him turn bullish. That will not happen until prices have risen much higher.
DA: With Newmont stepping up to the plate, can others be far behind? - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:41
RJ No Strength>(No Strength): -
Donald - Mostly short covering with very limited new buying. That fact that the Asians and Indians sat this last drop out is strong evidence that they believe they will find their bargains lower. As for the $38 gold, a pretty good argument that gold is an atrocious buy and hold investment. Gold WILL fall, tis true…………
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:37
Brackebusch Idaho>(Idaho): - You would think that people who trade in metals would know the proper symbols from the periodic chart of the elements:
Au = gold
Ag = silver
Pt = platinum
Pd = palladium - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - RJ: Are you not impressed with these several days of positive action for gold, in spite of the strongest dollar in years? Some of this buying is coming from foreign sources who are selling weak local currencies. I did a calculation last night here that shows gold is now priced $38.85 in 1966 dollars. Some obviously think that is a bargain.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:27
Walt alpha@hole>(alpha@hole): - To 6pack:
The gold was not shipped to Ottawa or the Bank of Canada.
The Gold, including ALL GOLD BARS, GOLD COINS, Securities,
from the U.K. and South Africa and Australia and New Zeeland, including all wealth belonging to Great Britain was shipped the
the deep Vaults of the Sun Life Building in Montreal. It being
the only suffiently large and secure facilitiy available.
All the wealth was then sold ( traded ) for war materials.
After it was all gone, Roosevelt ( the American People ) agreed
to extend credit to Great Britain to fight the war! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:25
DJ Reserves a'plenty>(Reserves a'plenty): - Bill Bennett - SWC has 1.2M oz. proven reserves and another 20M+ probable reserves. Their production is roughly 300k oz./year at a ratio of 3.5:1 palladium to platinum.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:24
RJ New Shorts!!!!!>(New Shorts!!!!!): - Savage - Each and every gold rally is a new opportunity to short. Like it or not, gold is heading down. There is zero reason for gold to rise, and every reason for it to fall. This should bring glee to Kitcocians, as they will all have plenty of chances to buy gold at much lower prices.
Platinum, hmmmmmmmm. Those of you that have read my posts in the past know that I am very bullish on platinum. Look for continued and sustained gains. The new trading range for the next year or two will $430 - $550 with spikes above $600. The fundamentals haven’t changed a bit. Now that Russian shipments have resumed, the stark realizations is: there isn’t enough of the stuff to be had.
Silver is the question mark. I fear it may be weighed down by gold, but there is plenty of interest there to give us modest but profitable trades. I remember, not so long ago, when 4.60 was support, now, alas, it is a target. Once the traditional summer doldrums are over, we should see some good rallies in silver. I will watch the downside and employs stops to protect.
Continued fear of CB gold sales, as well as soaring equities, surging economy, low interest rates, and a strong dollar will doom gold for the foreseeable future.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Go to the Kitco 24 Hour gold chart. Look at the pattern tonight vs: the previous pattern. It is uncannily identical, as though someone has a computer doing the trading.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:23
Byron @ Pounding The Pound:>(@ Pounding The Pound:): - Information concerning the pounding of the Pound today at http://biz.yahoo.com/upi/97/07/28/financial_news/money_2.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:15
Walt alpha@hole>(alpha@hole): - Mooney: The gold was shipped to Canada to pay for war material
made in U.S.A. and Canada for the U.K. I may refere you to the book
Operation Fish which gives the complete details of the entire
operation.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:14
Bill Bennett lbennett@interacess.com>(lbennett@interacess.com): - Platinum & Palladium are definitely in an uptrend.
Does Stillwater have any significant reserves? - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:11
tekgk kiwi>(kiwi): - New Age Economics ... Alan Greenspan, cannot explain what is going on...
It's easy try 511 billion of foreign lending to the USA in 1995 and 1996.
A couple of hundred billion here and a couple of hundred billion there and soon you are talking real money. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:11
Mooney @Samuel.Clemens>(@Samuel.Clemens): - Get the facts first. You can distort them later.
-----Mark Twain - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:08
Mooney @6pak>(@6pak): - 6pak - I think I've about drained one of you tonight, ( if you get mt drift ) , and I can't seem to get these numbers to jive.
Over a 16 month period ending in August 1940, some 2,154
metric tonnes
of gold owned by the *Bank of England* were shipped to Ottawa
( Bank of
Canada ) for safekeeping. At the peak in 1943, 1,429 tonnes
made up of
114,000 gold bars sat in the Ottawa ( Bank of Canada ) vault.
If 2,154 tonnes were shipped, how come at the PEAK only 1,429 tonnes were sitting in the vault. I thought usuary was against the law in Canada, especially in those days of Canada the Good! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 21:06
vronsky THE RED BARON>(THE RED BARON): - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:40
Jack good post>(good post): -
Kiwi: ( 14:10 ) So they have her singing the blues, or was it fermented fruit. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:23
RLM APH/Donald>(APH/Donald): - APH
One has to respect Wolanchuck's opinions, but not sure where he is looking to find too many bears; maybe the gold market 8- )
Donald
There was a non-confirmation today between the Dow and the broader markets. This seems to agree with your high tech struggle to advance. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:21
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Re selling by locals - Today's action had nothing to do with Locals! Locals were NOT the main event. Other traders handling orders were the buyers and sellers. Last week I posted about a local selling a few contracts below the bid. He is NOT in the trading pit everyday. In fact he is rarely in the trading pits and was not there today. Overall locals had minimal impact on the Gold market today.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:16
glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - skylark - I can not imagine that Newmont had a 10,000 contract short position on COMEX which it covered today. My guess is that it had the short position on the OTC market and what ever Gold dealer they dealt with then of set some of that risk onto other large traders they deal with and the rest on COMEX. This could explain the mnove up today and if they did it all at once it could explain why we are down right now. The buying from them was done and the market is now settling back down ( Waiting for the next buyer? ) .
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:12
Bob @... GSC>(@... GSC): - The Big Boys help at this time would be most welcome
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:11
D.A. the.times.they.are.a.changin>(the.times.they.are.a.changin): - George S. Cole:
It is interesting that at the same time Newmont is covering a big hedge there is still plenty of producer forward selling coming in the market at the 330 level. I've heard this number from two different sources so believe that it is significant. There seems to be a strong desire by some to get the market to 325 by tommorrows london fix for option expiration purposes. We shall see. Outside of the overnight options positioning it looks like there will be a showdown at the 330 level. Reading Glenn's post that locals were happy to sell at 32950 confirms that they must be holding sell orders above the market. This is what gives them their 'confidence'. A break through 330 will probably get us to 340 in a heart beat. I'm a hold'in tight.
With regards to the other precious metals things are looking very bullish indeed. My metals desk talks about silver being a dog with very little interest. This is very good. I love owning dogs that go higher even though no one is interested. Ditto for Pa. The market is very quiet but it just keeps pushing higher. It looks like a replay of the coffee situation. First one spike up, then a big selloff with lots of good rational, then a realization that the fundamentals haven't changed a bit and the final panic squeeze. The longer the blowoff is delayed, the bigger its going to be. Who knows, maybe that famous Kitco number 325 will come into play in a decidedly unexpected way! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:06
Jack LBMA>(LBMA): -
Vieserre 7/27/97 @ ( 17:52 ) I always read your excellent post, but could it be, that those who trade on the LBMA are the extremely well to do, the chartered banks and departments of government whose gold reserves are not reported on the books?
If my thinking is correct, these are major investors and the high activity on the LBMA seems to prove it.
IMHO, I suggest that this gold always comes home to roost. By this, I mean that a good safe investment may allow them to sell, but after its termination the wealth goes back into gold, through the LBMA.
I believe that very little of this gold, when sold finds its way to alleviate gold demand ( to make up the supply deficit ) , but only changes between strong hands at cash on the barrel head.
The thing that troubles; even if totally wrong in my reasoning and this gold was sold into demand, why would they sell at low prices, while knowing that this gold would never come back to the LBMA; where they deal in upmost privacy.
IMHO, even the scrap and other gold that makes up the present demand would normally command a higher price.
This is very perplexing?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 20:05
6pak Nazi GOLD @ Bank of Canada>(Nazi GOLD @ Bank of Canada): - One Central Bank, helping out another Central Bank,with looted gold ?
The Finance Minister, will investigate, the Bank of Canada.?
Get serious EH !
Monday July 28 1997
* Bank of Canada appoints investigator into Nazi gold link *
Over a 16 month period ending in August 1940, some 2,154 metric tonnes
of gold owned by the *Bank of England* were shipped to Ottawa ( Bank of
Canada ) for safekeeping. At the peak in 1943, 1,429 tonnes made up of
114,000 gold bars sat in the Ottawa ( Bank of Canada ) vault.....a pile
the size of a city bus.
( The reporter references Ottawa, I expect it should be Bank of Canada. )
http://www.canoe.ca/News/canoenews.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:49
George Cole Newmont hedge covering>(Newmont hedge covering): - Bob: With Newmont's announcement today about covering hedges looks like the big boys are starting to heed your advice. Hopefully this trickle of hedge-covering moves will snowball into a stampede that will deal the still heavily exposed shorts a mortal blow.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:48
Skylark @>(@): - Glenn: Thanks for the reply. I wonder if that Buyer was NGC as it reported that it purchased over 1 million ounces today.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:47
TIPSTER Lucky43@hotmail.com>(Lucky43@hotmail.com): - GLOBAL ASSETS:GLO.V I think this will be a real winner,especially in a fall rally.Recommend you position yourself now and do your due diligence
by contacting Thor Gauti IR Manager at 1-800-792-3834 in Vancouver.Here is a copy of latest press release.
NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CANADIAN CORPORATE NEWS
FOR: GLS GLOBAL ASSETS LTD.
VSE SYMBOL: GLO
JULY 24, 1997
GLS Global Assets: Agreement With Canadian-Bolivian
Resources Ltd.
VICTORIA, BRITISH COLUMBIA--GLS Global Assets Ltd. is pleased to
announce that it has entered into an agreement with Canadian-
Bolivian Resources Ltd. for a 75 percent interest in the Luchuza
( Cable Mountain ) property in Bolivia by making a US$25,000
payment to the property owner and incurring US$100,000 in
exploration expenditures. Canadian-Bolivian Resources Ltd. must
incur 12.5 percent of the next US$500,000 in exploration
expenditures, after which it will retain a 25 percent working
interest subject to dilution to a 12.5 percent interest in the
property.
The Cable Mountain property is located within easy access and
lies approximately 50km south and east of La Paz. The property
hosts 14 known separate quartz veins within a 150-200m wide
structure, traceable for approximately 2.0km along strike and over
200m in vertical extent. Several of the veins are currently being
mined for gold by independent local miners. No systematic
evaluation of the property has ever been documented. GLS Global
Assets Ltd. will commence a program of mapping, trenching and
geochemical sampling within the coming weeks. The result of these
surveys will be used for future drill target definition.
Analyses from initial chip and channel sampling of three
properties in northern Bolivia, Uyuni, Quinza Cruz, and Secunda,
have been received. No additional exploration will be conducted
on the Secunda property. Two of the properties ( Uyuni and Quinza
Cruz ) returned several highly anomalous gold values from quartz
vein structures, indicating that further evaluations are
warranted. Sampling from narrow veins on the Uyuni and Quinza
Cruz properties yielded INAA analytical results up to 18gm/t gold
and 51.8gm/t gold, respectively.
Respectfully submitted on behalf of the Board.
S. Cedric Steele, President
-30-
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
GLS Global Assets Ltd.
S. Cedric Steele
President
( 250 ) 388-6258
( 250 ) 383-3386 ( FAX )
E-mail: cedric@glsglobal.com Website www.globalminerals.com
Website: http://www.glsglobal.com
The Vancouver Stock Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept
responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
INDUSTRY: PCS
SUBJECT: TMN
-0-
===================================================================
You may change your service options at anytime by visiting:
http://www.cdn-news.com/profile/
===================================================================
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:39
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Skylark - there was selling around 328.50 ( Aug ) as we tried to get throught that area a few times withiut success until late in the day. After the close I read a news report that stated it was producer selling. Overall you are correct that it is tough knowing who is buying and who is selling. I have a chart that a well informed clerk gave me telling me who each trader represents. I have no idea how he knew other than that was his job and he has been on the floor for years. I am slowing learning who's doing the buying and selling and what it means.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Philippines to import 500,000 tons of rice due to el Nino.
Also, Peso remains volatile.
http://www.philstar.com/site/Preview/assets/cgi_bin/nph-frontpage.cgi?i28_jul28 - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Long Range missiles stolen from Albanian Army base.
http://web.albaniannews.com/albaniannews/headline/d1/text004.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:24
Skylark @>(@): - Glenn: How can a local tell if a producer is selling as opposed to another seller?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:13
TED @glenn>(@glenn): - Glenn ( 18:21 ) As usual a very interesting and informative post!...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:08
Jack Another way to become competitive>(Another way to become competitive): -
DM story from Canadian Press. http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/jul28_usd.html
We may seing an anomaly, gold and the $ going in the same direction. Hope the Europeans hedge their dollar bets with some gold purchases. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 19:02
Novice @Correction>(@Correction): - At 15:35 I passed on a report that IMC Global is preparing a takeover of Freeport-McMoRan. That is true, but the radio report implied it was Freeport-McMoran Copper and Gold. It isn't; according to NBR this evening, it is the fertilizer company ( Freeport-McMoRan ) and not FCX.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 18:41
Byron @ On The Edge:>(@ On The Edge:): - The XAU index is pressing its nose on the 50 day Moving Average line. If it can get thru that line tomorrow and also 97.90 on the index, I say Pop Goes The Weasel.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 18:35
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Panda: Regards your 15:18 post of the NASDAQ chart, looks to me as though it has just about completed 9 waves up from the June, l994 low. : )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 18:29
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold ratio has dropped to 24.65. The July 11 high of 25.22 still holds. Did the ratio signal a turn on July 11th? Are we on the downside of a historic spike? Stay tuned.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 18:21
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - On the close there was one trader who came in buying a large quantity of Gold. He's the one who made the 330.00 print in Aug. He was on one side of the pit and everyone on the other side was selling at 329.50. I would have loved to do that scalpe but I did not find out who was buying until after the close. There were no games being played today. He really was buying a large quantity ( I have no idea how much ) and things were hecktic. Overall there seemed to be alot of poeople willing to sell on the close as the price is down 0.40 on access right now. There was good producer selling at 328.50 ( Aug ) area today. It seems like the market is pushing higher but I question how much higher. OTC Option expiration is tuesday morning around 9:30 NY time. This will impact the markets in the short term. That's all for now.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 18:18
Jack Caved in>(Caved in): -
Panda: ( 18:00 ) So they're selling the kid's to pay the mortgage. Hope they have second thoughts. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 18:00
panda @>(@): - I've been in and out all day today, so forgive me if this is a repeat story or old news;
Thailand Seeks IMF Rescue Package; Banker Quits
Thailand will turn to the International Monetary Fund for the first time in more than a decade to help shore up its economy and currency. In return for what is likely to be billions of dollars in credit, the IMF may require the government to cut spending and raise taxes. Thailand has to accept the IMF's terms because it spent billions of dollars trying to fend off a devaluation of its currency and is now short of foreign exchange reserves. Thailand is like ``a water tank with a leak,'' said Thai Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya, who asked for the help. The IMF may ``help plug the hole.''
As reported by Bloomberg news.... The beat goes on.... - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 17:33
Jack Love Newmont>(Love Newmont): -
They did it before and now they did it again. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 17:29
kiwi on surfing >(on surfing ): - Well guru zoro says ya gotta stay ahead of the wave...even lead it.
Get on ya surfboard for this one because it's BIG and it's taking me all the way to those GOLDen shores...yeh!
Caution: BIG waves KILL, SELL QUANTUM. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 17:14
GVC @Internet Trader software>(@Internet Trader software): - For those of you who haven't already downloaded internet trader , I would recommend doing so. The new version has access to the xau and hui indexes. complete quoting, charting , and news service available for all your favorite gold stocks on most major north american exchanges. AND, best of all, IT'S FREE!!!:
http://www.papyrus.com/pap/download.htm
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 17:11
Vieserre NGC Unwinds 1.1 Million Ounce Hedge Position>(NGC Unwinds 1.1 Million Ounce Hedge Position): - I am pleased to report some good news
DENVER, July 28 /PRNewswire/ -- Newmont Gold Company today purchased approximately 1.1 million ounces of gold to offset the hedge position it acquired in the merger with Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corporation. Newmont will realize a gain of approximately $100 million on the transaction.
``The gold market has been caught in a frenzy of fears and phobias in which exaggerated worries over potential central bank sales is overshadowing the strongest physical demand for gold in history,'' said
Ronald C. Cambre, Newmont's Chairman, President and CEO.
``As the lowest cost producer in North America, we think this is a time to reassert our confidence in the metal and provide our shareholders with the opportunity to fully participate in any rally in the gold market.''
Mr. Cambre noted that the ratio of speculators who have sold gold short is ten times that of traders with long positions in the metal. ``This is the widest ratio in a decade and a clear indication that the market is
oversold.''
James P. Riley, managing director of Goldman Sachs, said, ``Gold had one of its best performances in recent days, being up $3 to close at $329, reflecting this oversold position. I would look for continued rallies of this nature in the weeks to come.''
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 17:09
Donald @Home>(@Home): - An old story but I think we missed it. D-Mark: Germany seems unlikely to halt
slide
Originally published: MONDAY JULY 21 1997
By Simon Kuper in London and Andrew Fisher in Frankfurt
The D-Mark, sliding steadily for a year, has recently begun to nosedive. It
has lost 15 pfennigs against the pound in the last month, and has fallen
more than 5 pfennigs against the dollar in a fortnight. You could almost
call that a devaluation, said Mr Peter von Maydell, senior currency
economist at Union Bank of Switzerland.
The question in the market is whether Germany will do anything to stop the
slide. The answer seems to be no.
Since last August the D-Mark has dropped 32 per cent against the pound
to around DM3.00, and 18 per cent against the dollar to about DM1.80.
The forces behind this move seem set to remain in place. German interest
rates are well below those in the UK and the US, prompting a flight out of
Germany in search of higher yields.
Also, the forex market believes that in 18 months' time the D-Mark will
merge into a weak single European currency.
The market's assault on the currency has paused briefly, for fear that the
Bundesbank and other central banks might counter-attack by buying
D-Marks. The Bundesbank is famously obsessive about inflation, and a
weak D-Mark raises the price of imports.
Yet the market increasingly believes Germany is happy with the D-Mark's
level. Mr Helmut Kohl, the German chancellor, said on Friday that its fall
was not earth shattering and noted the boost it had given to exports. Mr
Peter Hausmann, the government spokesman, last Wednesday also
sounded relaxed about the currency's slide, saying: There is no need to
dramatise recent developments on foreign exchange markets.
Mr Holger Fahrinkrug, Frankfurt-based economist at UBS, commented:
It was a very soft stance. Policymakers seemed scarcely concerned
about the D-Mark because unit wage costs were falling and import price
rises not being passed on to consumers.
Mr Hausmann said Germany was in contact with its partners in the Group
of Seven leading industrialised countries, which felt currency rates should
not move far out of line with economic fundamentals. That echoed
comments from Mr Theo Waigel, German finance minister, and Mr Hans
Tietmeyer, Bundesbank president.
But strategists now think such remarks were meant chiefly to give the
market a sense of two-way risk, stopping the D-Mark collapsing. Mr
Fahrinkrug said: Germany is happy with the present level, but a bit
concerned about the momentum and the possibility that this could get out
of control.
The Bundesbank is in any case known to be sceptical of intervention.
When economic fundamentals seem to point one way, central banks
usually cannot move a currency the other way.
Bear Stearns, the US bank, said: The G7 knows that cash intervention is
pretty pointless.
German exporters are benefiting from the weak currency, as are buyers of
German shares, which have roared ahead this year. Inflation is under
control and without the currency stimulus to exports, the German economy
would have little to keep it going at a time of flat domestic demand.
Since there is a lag of about nine months before exchange rate moves
affect exports, German companies are now profiting from D-Mark levels
at the end of last year. The impact of present rates will carry them through
to early 1998, by which time they hope export growth will be
accompanied by stronger domestic demand and capital investment. Only
then is the Bundesbank likely to consider raising rates.
Mr Tietmeyer said earlier this month that the D-Mark's correction was
undoubtedly at an end. Mr Brian Marber, an independent currency
analyst, said that if this was true he would eat his own hat, Mr Tietmeyer's
and Mr Tietmeyer's lederhosen. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - From Tokyo: Chip making equipment sales fall 18%. High Tech selloff?
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/techset.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Soros is doing Malaysia a favor.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970729/world/wasiap.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:44
Novice @Golden bull or Golden bear>(@Golden bull or Golden bear): - Ted: Re yer 15:50, to avoid becoming the Kitco Jonah or jinx, I refuse to answer yer question ( maybe by e-mail...{;- ) . As for Wall Street Abby, a putdown of gold was to be expected ( though her stock picks already look insanely high to moi ) .
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:28
nomercy Aussies to buy back?>(Aussies to buy back?): - ...naah to proud, to admit their mistake, don't confuse us with facts
http://www.cnnfn.com/news/knight_ridder/2333.1.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:25
Speed @work>(@work): - Dan: re : your 14:19. Thanks! I was reading the synopsis, not the whole article.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:21
nomercy Trade Buying Gold>(Trade Buying Gold): - According to News Alert
CLOSING N.Y. METALS: UP ON PGM
TIGHTNESS; TRADE BUYING IN GOLD - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:10
Savage (?): - APH: 336 ? ( or do you think that is too exposed? ) ( dec ) Thanks. You are one of those whose posts I pay particular attention to.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:09
pyramid Seattle>(Seattle): - BART -- What about listing DEFINITIONS for frequently used ACRONYMS and PHRASES at this web site ? Might I suggest at high noon on every Monday ( EDT ) a listing appear. The newcomers and occasional contributors would benefit initially. Longer term, this KITCO site would be the BIG WINNER as we continue to educate ourselves. For example:
Big Trader: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Buba: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
COMEX: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
FOMC: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IMHO: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:05
nomercy nailz>(nailz): - Today's high was 333.60, isn't that part of the trading range or do you just use the close
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:04
panda @>(@): - SPX down 2.68 but the Dow up ~5 points? Hmmmm.... What does the S&P500 represent? 500 stocks or twenty? Curious divergence. Now, all we need is a twenty Dollar rally in gold! I feel that this would be the most humane way to deal with this SPX/Dow divergence. :- ) )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:04
Savage >(): - GLENN: What happened at the close
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 16:03
Savage (?): - RJ: In your opinion ( which I value as an honest trader ) ; at what price ( s ) will the shortest shorts throw in the towel?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:59
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good week for stats!....employment cost index out tomorrow....Bad week for New York Rangers: Messier signs with the Canucks....
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:55
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Has the Fed embraced the buy on the dip strategy? Gotta have a new high every day!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:55
nailz TOP CHECK.....>(TOP CHECK.....): - Where did gold close today Yep, you guessed it !!!Right at the very top of the trading range established in the last down move.....$329.50...If it closes below that tommorrow, then it is lookout for $314.00....Above it will prove to be interesting...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:50
TED @novice>(@novice): - Novice: Do I detect a hint of bullishness in your comment?..Comex gold up 3.0 ....Talkin about gold on futures Round Up ( CNBC ) ...just a dead-cat bounce says talkin head...YES!....I love it when ya talk that way!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:47
kiwi BT>(BT): - Time for the cowboys to cut 'n run?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:41
goldman fear>(fear): - The shorts are barely ( bearly? ) holding on; you can smell the fear.
They will crack soon
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:38
Granny I love these Up days>(I love these Up days): - Just chiming in!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:35
Novice @look out, Jim Bob>(@look out, Jim Bob): - Just heard a report that IMC Global is going after Freeport McMorRan, whichj is currently up 4 1/2.
Well, they knocked gold rallies down last Tuesday and Thursday, but couldn't muster it today.
Did anyone hear market maven Abby Joseph Cohen's response to Paul Kangas' query ( NBR, Friday nite ) whether it was time to buy gold? She said absolutely not...buy Sun Microsystems and IBM... Well, maybe...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:27
panda @>(@): - Jeeez, what kind of steroids are they feeding the German DAX these days? Devaluation steroids? :- ) ) I see Austria didn't do too bad today, up 2%.
Maybe this is the new paradigm, we can devalue our way to wealth! To whatever was/is keeping the 'price' of gold down, I truely appreciate your efforts. :- )
Now, it's my turn to wait. :- ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:18
panda @>(@): - Byron -- How does one back off of something like this Any steeper ascent, and it will be a 'spike' climax. At least for the moment. And yes, this is a log chart. Keep in mind also that the techs have been the leaders of this market. Oh where oh where do I find a safe place to 'invest' my money in?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:11
panda @>(@): - Byron -- This particular computer problem stems for the empire of Gates. Question, what happens if your hard drive crashes or worse, you run out of space? Well, if Windows NT is your operating system, a lot of agony awaits you. With DOS, you could transfer the boot sector/loader easily. With NT, it's a big secret. Shhhh! Of course the standard answer would be to add a hard drive to your system. But wait! That doesn't answer the question of, what do you do when the O/S eats up all the disk space! This is classic High Tech Non-thinking. If this is what the 'future economy' is based on... Expect wild swings in the economy. High Tech was never noted for its level performance!
On the other hand, gold has had a notably consistant performance bias to the downside. Could this be changing? Looking at the ForEx rates, it seems as though devaluation is the theme of the day. Got to create jobs. Got to export. Yup. Joe Batapaga..... whatever his name is, says that 1987 was different than now. We had a currency crisis then, and the the long bond was 250 basis points higher than now. Good reasons to keep on buying stocks...... :- ) ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 15:06
mikeharry sleeping@work>(sleeping@work): - Hey I got a short spikey haircut a couple of hours ago, I come back and gold had a short spike too. Maybe I am a leading indicator.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:59
Byron @ Breaking the CRB Barrier:>(@ Breaking the CRB Barrier:): - CRB Cash broke through 240. British Pound down -322
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:54
vronsky US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION>(US/JAPAN TRADE - REALITY VERSUS PERCEPTION): - Japan’s divesture of $US assets will lead to collapse in US bond market, devaluation of US dollar & increase in gold price. Insightful and prophetic. Must RELOAD Guru Milhouse page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:52
EB BP - has been getting SMACKED...fleeing to Gold...?>(BP - has been getting SMACKED...fleeing to Gold...?): - OUCH! Does anyone have news about Brit 2-day? The 'blessed' lb is taking a beating.
Are the currencies moving to metals?
Will we see a bull running through the crowded streets?
Will the Bear take the bull by the horns?
Will Batman save Robin?
Does Julia Roberts have fake lips?
Tune in...tomorrow?...
Same bat channel...
Same bat time...
AWAY ;-?
eb - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:48
Byron @ The Close Of Comex:>(@ The Close Of Comex:): - Something happened at the close in NY. XAU and HUI popped up. Panda: Happiness is having the library's computer people to deal with computer problems. : )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:40
kiwi Gold War!>(Gold War!): - Let the Battle begin.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:39
kiwi Gold War!>(Gold War!): - Let the Battle begin.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:35
capnkev @home>(@home): - I've got Oct. gold up 3.90
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:33
REB na>(na): - Looks like the shorts are running out of ammo.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:19
Dan dan007@juno.com>(dan007@juno.com): - Speed don't be alarmed. You did not read Jack Thompson's full comments about Homestake's hedging plans. Read on:
``As most of you know, Homestake traditionally has not hedged any of its gold production except in very special circumstances. We did forward sell production from our Nickel Plate mine in British Columbia and, more recently, from our McLaughlin mine in northern California. Both mines were near the end of their economic life. Our basic policy on hedging is about to change. The Board of Directors has authorized the Company to implement strategies to provide a floor price for a portion of our gold production. In addition, authority was given to enter into forward sales arrangements if deemed appropriate. We are NOT about to hedge a significant portion of our gold resources at the current price, but we now have that flexibility if required in the future.'' There, feel better now? - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 14:10
kiwi Play it again Uncle Sam?>(Play it again Uncle Sam?): - Who needs a currency crisis to give indigestion when you got this?
Albright prepares song for foreign ministers' dinner
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia ( AP ) - U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was in a different kind of spotlight today, offering a humorous rendition of ``Don't Cry for Me, Argentina'' at a dinner for 19 foreign ministers.
With lyrics that included the line, ``Don't cry for me, President Clinton,'' Albright practiced the song before the dinner with aides as the chorus. The rehearsal took place around a piano in the ballroom of the Sunway Lagoon Resort Hotel.
Delegates to the forum of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) traditionally sing songs, tell jokes and provide entertainment at the dinner concluding their security talks.
Part of the lyrics of Albright's song:
``Don't cry for me ASEANists,
``The truth is I never left you.
``I still need your partnership
``In all my dealings.
``Don't cry for me, President Clinton ...
...
``I tried to talk to your leaders.
``But they were all on the golf course.
``So I come back to
``The Sunway Lagoon.
``Have I said too much?
``But that's all I have to say.
``You only have to look at me
``To see that it's all true.'' - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:58
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Say it ain't so..... the loss I can handle, but don't hedge!!! not now, not at the low.
SAN FRANCISCO -- Homestake Mining Co. reported a second-quarter loss due to lower gold prices and said its board authorized the company to hedge its production.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: I am encouraged about a possible top here also. Former market leaders like Compaq and Dell are having a tough time today. One brokerage house must have read my reality check on Dell in these spaces yesterday. It was downgraded to hold on a valuation call. Hold = sell in Brokerspeak I think. But still, knock on wood just to be sure we don't jinx it with this kind of talk.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:42
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WSF: I checked the KF in Barrons's this Saturday. It is still selling at a 6.5% premium. It would seem that you are safe. That premium should turn to a discount at which point you should be on full alert.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:38
George Cole gold bull?>(gold bull?): - I am not quite ready to say the bull is on, but the odds look very good at this point. Gold's ability to rise in the face of a surging dollar is the best action I have witnessed since early 1996. But, as DA points out, the bears almost surely will attempt to smash the yellow at the day's end. If they fail or are only able to push gold down slightly, then there is a good chance we will see $340 this week as WW has projected.
BTW, I believe Captain Bill at the Privateer is ready to declare a buy signal if the yellow can get through $340 ( the 100 day MA ) with conviction
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:34
gkfdjgkadjt ja thq>(ja thq): - OTC gold options with a 327 strike expire on Tuesday, curretly spot gold is at 328.5 at 1330 newyork time. We may get some fireworks!!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:30
TED @tort>(@tort): - Tort: Whew...I feel better already!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:26
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Ted, I quickly recant. I'm saying it isn't so.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:23
TED @tort>(@tort): - Tort: Don't jinx us now......XAU up 1.49...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:20
kiwi tort>(tort): - I'm off for a large Gin....BOTTOM's UP LADS!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:19
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust - Ingovtwedonottrust>(@Ingotwetrust - Ingovtwedonottrust): - bw: Re taxes, let us do away with all present taxes and use the Sales Tax. Then people would see constantly what they really pay in taxes and we would get spending under control.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:16
Tortfeasor The test>(The test): - If it smells like a bull, has horns like a bull, and has gored a lot of investors with its horns and doesn't eat honey out of a tree its probably a bull. I can smell a lot of bull in the local press regarding gold and the other precious metals. From the Tortfeasor comes the declaration that the gold bull is officially underway. Back off all doubting Thomases or Toms ( by whichever name you may be known ) and make way for the bull that has not yet become an investment steer. Wave that gold flag in front of this bull and see him run.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:11
kiwi apologies>(apologies): - may have flooded the group, just some connected events leading up to the GLOBAL CURRENCY MELTDOWN....well we wanted a global economy and a global boom...just what does a global bust look like anyhow? There ain't nowhere to run, nowhere to hide we're all in it together now, embrace the world but never forget....keep the GOLD in your pocket!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 13:07
kiwi give us a break>(give us a break): - US is awash with drug money...mostly in politics, eg SORO
US Blames Burma for Drugs
The United States today accused Burma of officially
encouraging the drug trade. Speaking at the ASEAN conference in
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
said drug traffickers are ``now leading lights in Burma's new
market economy and leading figures in its new political order.''
She said drug money has become so pervasive in Burma, it taints
legitimate investment and threatens the region as a whole. Burma
recently joined ASEAN despite Western disapproval.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:59
bw Re: WW, taxes>(Re: WW, taxes): - WW: Your heart is in the right place. Taxes on the poor are onerous. In fact if our leaders believe their bs about the global economy we must abolish all taxes on labor! All income taxes, social security taxes ( both employee and employer ) , medicare taxes, unemployment taxes, all the dozens of direct and indirect taxes on labor. Why? Because we as laborers must compete with our counterparts in ( ie. ) China whose total wages are less than what the minimum wage worker in this country pays in social security taxes alone. Granted even without paying any taxes on our labor competition will not be easy. The taxes on labor make it impossible. Taxing capital gains in an inflationary economy ( ours ) amounts to the confisication of wealth. So who do we tax? One place I would suggest we look is at the receiver of the vast slice of gnp served up by our Federal Reserve System, the banks et al. The last time I checked the banks were paying a total tax of about 2%-5% of the profits they reported to their stockholders. But we have been told corporations do not pay taxes, they will simply pass them on in product pricing. Perhaps, ( we are now told due to the global economy this is not possible ) still if the banks paid the about 50% in taxes the rest of us pay, it would spread some tax pain beyond the wage earners of all classes, to the powerful truely wealthy who do not earn their wealth other than by political favor.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:58
goldman get on board>(get on board): - gold up 1.50, dmark down 24, jyen down 50 What is happening?
gold is CHEAP. Get on board!!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:54
kiwi first the stick, then the carrot?>(first the stick, then the carrot?): - U.S. presses ASEAN on liberalising financial servi
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, July 28 ( Reuter ) - The United States
on Monday asked ASEAN to go significantly further in
liberalising financial services, saying this would bolster
economic policies that ensure long-term growth.
In a statement to the Association of South East Asian
Nations, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright also pressed the
region's developing countries to cooperate in U.N. negotiations
to cut pollution from burning fossil fuels.
She noted U.S. concern about recent currency fluctuations
that have affected regional economies such as Malaysia, Thailand
and the Philippines and said market-oriented responses by some
countries helped dampen the volatility.
Albright argued that initiatives being discussed at ASEAN,
``including the effort to liberalise trade in financial
services, have a critical part to play in ensuring continued
growth and prosperity in the region.
``No country can have a world-class, high-tech economy
without a world-class, properly regulated financial services
sector to allocate capital efficiently,'' Albright said.
``Significantly improved offers from all ASEAN states will
help generate the momentum needed to reach a global agreement by
the December 12 deadline,'' set by the World Trade Organisation,
she said.
U.S. officials say last year's trade agreements on
information technology and telecommunications were achieved only
because ASEAN decided they were in their interest.
Albright praised this contribution and said: ``This year,
the ASEAN countries have a chance to play the same positive role
in WTO negotiations to liberalise financial services.''
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed has accused
international financier George Soros of using his financial
clout to destabilise Southeast Asian currencies in an effort to
block Burma's admission to ASEAN.
Malaysia's New Straits Times newspaper reported that Soros
denied he intervened in currency markets to punish governments
backing Burma's entry into ASEAN, which took place this week.
But Soros acknowledged opposing Burma's admission as a
``totalitarian and repressive regime.''
Malaysia and its neighbours have seen attacks on their
currencies in the past month forcing devaluations in Thailand
and the Philippines and expensive intervention in Malaysia.
The United States, which has banned new American investment
in Burma, also opposed Burma's admission to ASEAN. In Monday's
ASEAN statement, Albright made no mention of Soros. But she said
``drug traffickers are now leading lights in Burma's new market
economy and leading figures in its new political order.
``We are increasingly concerned that Burma's drug
traffickers, with official encouragement, are laundering their
profits through Burmese banks and companies -- some of which are
joint ventures with foreign businesses,'' she said.
``Drug money has become so pervasive in Burma that it taints
legitimate investment and threatens the region as a whole.''
Albright also made a strong pitch for ASEAN to cooperate in
U.N.-sponsored negotiations to impose limits on emissions to
slow the process of global climate change.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:53
WSF @NC>(@NC): - CMAX- Amen on your 7/27 21:29 post! I've made soliloquies to the same effect for years. The 'service-driving-more-service economy' bothers me. I'd welcome other thoughts you or others may have on the subject.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:51
kiwi and then there's the mystics>(and then there's the mystics): - New Age Economics
These are trying times for economists. The U.S. economy is
performing amazingly well, but even the world's most important
central banker, Alan Greenspan, cannot explain what is going on.
At least some of the recent stellar performance of the U.S.
economy seems to be attributable to structural changes, such as
increased productivity. Experts cite the strong dollar, which
helps to keep import prices down, and low oil prices as among
the key reasons for the recent lull in inflation. Higher labor
mobility, more moderate wage agreements and a drastic fall in
health care costs also had a strong impact, they say.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:50
kiwi and speaking of cowboys>(and speaking of cowboys): - Wait till Murdoch decides to run the guns, go free enterprise!
U.S. May Challege News Corp. Deal
The U.S. Justice Department may challenge News Corp.'s plans
to acquire Heritage Media Corp. in a $1.35 billion
stock-and-debt transaction. The department's antitrust field
office in San Francisco is recommending that the department
challenge the deal, the companies said today. News Corp. plans
to buy Heritage, a Dallas-based mass marketing company, for $754
million in stock and the assumption of $600 million in debt. The
deal was announced March 17. The companies say they were told of
the San Francisco field office's position after the close of
U.S. stock market trading on Friday.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:45
kiwi even Time magazine knows!>(even Time magazine knows!): - Top Clinton aide discounts U.S. crash plan
WASHINGTON - President Bill Clinton's top economic advisor
threw cold water on Sunday on a report that federal regulators
had been working on plans to prevent a financial meltdown in
case of a major stock market drop.
In its issue on newstands Monday, Time magazine said the
President's Working Group on Financial Markets, chaired by
Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, had been working on
contingency plans to maintain orderly markets in case of a big
selloff.
- - - -
S.E.Asia currencies firm as Thailand mulls IMF aid
SINGAPORE - Southeast Asia's battered currencies staged a
tentative recovery on Monday as the market pinned its hopes on
an economic rescue package for Thailand.
Dealers said news that Thai leaders had agreed in principle
to tap loans from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) lifted
the baht and underpinned the region's other currencies.
- - - -
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:38
Oliver @The BUBBLE>(@The BUBBLE): - Feeding the python.
http://www.amcity.com/milwaukee/stories/072897/focus2.html
Oliver - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:37
WSF @NC>(@NC): - Donald- Thanks for the response re:Korea, and the continuing news updates. I wasn't asking about KF as much as how the Korean market reacts to the news. It seems that they have faith in the government's ability to fix things ( and why not, these days? )
I also enjoy the inflation/deflation debate- I've been struggling with it for several years now.... - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:26
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - GEORGE S. COLE: Donald's references today to 1966 put some of my rusty
wheels to turnin'. Wasn't it 1967 when we saw the US$ devalued? What
do you see comming from this direction? - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 12:16
NJ Medicine>(Medicine): - This medicine always works. At 10:40 CNBC flashed the news that Fed Added Liquidity. Was the result was instantaneous, or am I reading too much into a routine Fed activity. http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=$INDU&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&ke
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 11:09
APH 12% up day in Dow>(12% up day in Dow): - Over the weekend I listened to some of Wolanchuck's market comments. Since he's been right on the market for several years his comments have some merit. He believes the stock market has a long way to go in terms of price and time. The center of primary wave III will be marked by the biggest one day price move ever, not in terms of points ( 185 ) but in terms of percent. The biggest one day advance was 12% after the 87 crash, that means a one day advance at these levels of over 900 points. He looks for a pull back into the 1998 four year cycle low, but from what price and time is unsure. The main factor seems to be to many bears and until the numbers change he's bullish.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 11:08
MoreGold @Dealers also said they were confused by the Russian export agency Almazjuvelirexport announcing the closure of its Tokyo office earlier to- day. >(@Dealers also said they were confused by the Russian export agency Almazjuvelirexport announcing the closure of its Tokyo office earlier to- day. ): - I smell something strange here .....
Monday July 28 10:33 AM EDT
London gold fixes touch higher, awaits OTC expiry
LONDON, July 28 ( Reuter ) - Precious metals prices remained within tight ranges on Monday afternoon ahead of the
next day's over the counter ( OTC ) option expiry, dealers said.
``One of the key strike prices seems to be $325 per ounce so we won't see much movement away from that in the
market,'' one dealer said.
He added that just before the afternoon fixing, gold made a few ``half- hearted'' attempts to get past $326.00.
But by the fix it was settled little changed from the morning at $325.75 against $325.40 and $324.10 on Friday.
The Comex August contract was at $326.40 down $0.10.
Dealers said the markets had been quiet all day and had made little progress after firming in New York on Friday and
holding the level in the Far East.
Platinum and palladium prices were both slightly firmer.
Platinum was $3.00 up at $425.50/$428.50 after fixing at $428.00, its highest fix since July 2.
Dealers said the market had been heartened by news that Toyota Motor Corp plans to introduce low-emission vehicle
models later this year that will use more platinum group metals in their autocatalysts than existing models.
The company did not specify how much additional platinum group metal would be used in the new autocatalysts.
The system is similar to one developed by Honda Motor Co Ltd which is believed to use more PGMs than conventional
catalytic systems.
Dealers also said they were confused by the Russian export agency Almazjuvelirexport announcing the closure of its Tokyo office earlier to- day.
Russia is the largest exporter of palladium and second largest shipper of platinum with Japan its largest customer for both
metals.
Shipments for 1997 began only this month after administrative problems effectively cut off exports last December.
``It's a bit worrying coming without any explanation,'' one dealer said.
Palladium meanwhile was quoted at $202.00/$205.00 up three dollars and silver was two cents ahead of Friday's close
at $4.33/$4.35 without attracting any interest.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 11:04
Front To WW:>(To WW:): -
Hey WW:
Dear Old George's plea aside, let me quote you for a second...
IE they pay taxes and at a higher percentage than some of what I call the incredibly greedy rich who want it all and make the lower class hard working people sound like unworthy individuals. This is hypocrisy at its worst/ Go Clinton/ Rubin hold back welfare for the filthy rich as much as you can. When we retake Congress we can raise taxes on the rich and give relief to those with lower incomes.
Oh, now I get it. You want to tax the rich so you can go to Cuba on a freebie in a more luxurious style! Sorry, I must have misunderstood you before. Here I thought you were on the side of the little guy. Well, you didn't seem to give a damn about the little guy when you were thinking of going to Cuba on my tax dollars through your relatives conections to the NDP party in Canada did you! And you talk about hypocrisy! Gimme a break!
TTFN - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 11:04
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy Section - III>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy Section - III): - Professor Miller of New York University - describes the dire economic & financial consequences subsequent to Japan’s own excessive & IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE: “The Bubble Bursts: 1990-91”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/cscb003.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:59
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Malaysia renews attack on Currency Speculators ( Criminals )
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970728/international/stories/asean_1.html
Nothing like a few hundred million muslims having a go at a clever jew eh? WARNING: This could be the spark that could eventually move the nations around the world to attack Israel in the future. A long shot I know, but has been predicted for a LONG time.... - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:51
D.A. a.devalueing.we.will.go>(a.devalueing.we.will.go): - All:
Another soaring day for the dollar, the second strongest currency in the world. A small toast to the strongest currency in the world. Go gold. The 600 level in DM's has been well penetrated. We are somewhere in the 603-604 level. I think 612-613 is a multiyear high.
All of the prior forays up to the $328-330 level have been hit with strong end of day selling in New York. If we again make it up in that range the bears will be put to the test yet again. Each time they lean against the wind, they expend more ammo, and are left with more precarious positions. I smell a double digit day on the upside. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:47
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Gold royalty delayed for WA Miners.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970729/news/news5.html
If you were John Howard, & had been under the hammer lately, did not want to face the Diggers & Dealers Conference in Kalgoorlie, wanted to watch the cricket instead....what do you do. Organise for your body to catch Pneumonia. He has been watching the Cricket from the Mater Hospital in Sydey for the past three days. Probably quite sick, but certainly got off the hook for the hard stuff. Costello took it in his stride ( as usual he could call black white, & would do it without even flinching ) . See, there is no problem with selling 170 tonnes of gold when over 3500 tonnes were sold last year. It chicken feed, didn't you know. ( & more incredible lines followed at the Liberal Party State Conference ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:47
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - I've been out of town ( and off the net ) for awhile. Did I miss anything exciting?
RJ, I got the package. Will be contacting you soon.
All - the following should make you feel safe. BTW, Greenspain is now driving the boat...
This is the transcript of an ACTUAL radio conversation
of a US naval ship with Canadian authorities off the coast of
Newfoundland in October 1995.
********************************************************
Radio conversation released by the Chief of Naval
Operations 10-10-95.
*******************************************************
Americans: Please divert your course 15 degrees to the North to avoid
a collision.
Canadians: Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.
Americans: This is the Captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert
YOUR course.
Canadians: No. I say again, you divert YOUR course.
Americans: THIS IS THE AIRCRAFT CARRIER USS MISSOURI,
THE SECOND LARGEST SHIP IN THE UNITED
STATES' ATLANTIC FLEET. WE ARE ACCOMPANIED
BY THREE DESTROYERS, THREE CRUISERS AND
NUMEROUS SUPPORT VESSELS. I DEMAND THAT
YOU CHANGE YOUR COURSE 15 DEGREES NORTH,
THAT'S ONE FIVE DEGREES NORTH, OR
COUNTER-MEASURES WILL BE UNDERTAKEN TO
ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THIS SHIP.
Canadians: This is a lighthouse. Your call.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:37
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Cash Trusts soar, despite hot shares
http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970729/business/business5.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:25
Steve (Perth) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - 18th July, HARRY SCHULTZ FLASH BULLETIN.
In our humble opinion the US stock market may have given a SERIOUS technical sell signal on 18th July. Serious means charts indicate the possibility of a 22% fall. That's not the end of the world, but it's not chicken feed either. All world markets will follow US market. ...that means a 44% fall in many stocks....The chart pattern isn't the only evidence for a sell off. Stochastic oscillators show loss of momentum. The Bullish concensus shows excessive bullishness. Short selling by NYSE specialists is dangerously high. Etc. It smells like a very stiff correction. SELL SHORT.. Maybe this is a false alarm. We hope so because most people can't AFFORD a big correction, let alone a bear market. But we would be derelict in our duty if we didn't at least mention this notable risk possibility.
From Steve in Perth - I agree with Mahatir in Malaysia. He has done a lot of good for the poor in his country. I think Soros is full of ..... Soros is a BIG worry. In my view, Soros is being allowed to do what he is doing, to bring down national world currency, to further the one world financial system of one world currency. He will then be out of business, but what does he care then? I wish Australia had the intestinal fortitude of Malaysia.
Peter Costello addressed us at the Liberal Party of WA State Conference. He simply stated that the Aussie Reserve Bank had assets such a gold that he hoped would not be drawn upon to defend the currency. Hence they did a little asset swapping. Hey presto, its so easy. I can't see what all the fuss is all about. Swine.... - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:15
Nick LA>(LA): -
Puetz: The URL below was posted here on the weekend and leads to the views of the guy who runs the biggest gold mining enterprise on the planet. He says the CBs are not controlling the gold price. What is your view on his statements?
http://www.bday.co.za/97/0725/comment/c3.htm - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:14
Mooney @Earl>(@Earl): - Thanks Earl. Appreciate the appreciation!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:14
Steve (Perth) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - I'm back for a day. Away in Geraldton until next Saturday. Haven't missed much. I agree, it is now harder to scroll over all the good posts ( considering one person has fortunately disappeared ) . Back to the good old days....
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:11
Mooney @Ted.and.Then.Off.To.Work!>(@Ted.and.Then.Off.To.Work!): - Darg: a day's pay! Crab-Skuit: a small open fishing boat with sail. ( Perfect for your neck of the woods on balmy days. ) Check out my Ode to Hepcat that I posted last Wednesday morning if you really want to learn some new words! C U L8R
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:09
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Mooney: That one's a keeper. Yesterday's quote from Frost was as well.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:05
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Here's a heavy one to start off everyones' week. :- )
One should respect public opinion insofar as is necessary to avoid
starvation and keep out of prison, but anything that goes beyond this is
voluntary submission to an unnecessary tyranny. Bertrand Russell - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:03
TED @marconimuseum>(@marconimuseum): - Mornin Mooney! Darg ( ? ) and crab-skuit ( ? ) huh...Comex gold up a dime;Silver up a penny;Platinum up 3.30 and Palladium up .85...Am off to play tour guide and first stop is Marconi Museum...XAU down .07..BYE!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 10:00
MoreGold @Dow>(@Dow): - Dow is up 9.99
Sounds like some cheap sale at Walmart ( :- ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:58
2 with time on his hands Here's a hint: Skip this post>(Here's a hint: Skip this post): - Suppose you had infinite access to information ( not including reading people's minds ) , and wanted to predict the price of gold over some term.
( 1 ) What are the top ten items you would factor into your prediction? ( sample items: Amount of gold jewelry fabricated in each of the last 30 days. Transcripts of all meetings of central bankers in the last two months. Etc., with imagination. )
( 2 ) Even with all that info, what kind of margin of error would your predictions have?
I think it is pretty clear that in the arena of gold, the human element is relatively more important. Also, as we know, above 360 there is nothing but air, the supply/demand curve can get very weird for this storied commodity ( Hey - nobody needs it, everybody wants it ) .
Wouldn't we all agree that the best mind, with the best information, would make money, but not be all that accurate?
Wouldn't we all agree that even with all the information, there is no commodity, stock, index fund, or other asset that is more difficult to accurately forecast than gold?
The WSJ picked top analysts in 50 areas. ( I think that ) the only area in which the analyst felt obliged to say, I have no emotional attachment to this investment arena, was precious metals. The implication is, a lot of people to. Certainly I do.
But if anyone wants to say, here is my prediction, I would say, What are the most important indicators, and what do you know about them, and how important are the indicators about which you know nothing and over which you have no control? Because once those indicators are factored in, is it going to pretty clear that your prediction has a margin of error that makes it hardly better than chance?
Does the doctor study toenail clippings to tell whether the patient will live or die? Does the mechanic take paint samples to diagnose engine performance? Well, yes, perhaps sometimes there will be a correlation, and perhaps sometimes analyses so based will have an accuracy that is uncanny.
But what does the enlightened MD want to know? What does the engine diagnostic analyzer measure? And what should gold analysts be looking at? Charts? The moon? Polls? Hepcat?
Best to all. It's been a pleasant few days here at Kitcoland, has it not? Somebody go find Cherokee.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:55
Mooney @Ted>(@Ted): - Morning Ted! Trouble is that it is not 66 and foggy here in T.O. but 88 and muggy! BTW - Are you prepared to use your day's darg to purchase a crab-skuit? :- )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:43
vronsky THE RED BARON>(THE RED BARON): - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:40
KGB @In Hiding>(@In Hiding): - Anyvone here vot lif Japan? Vill out vindow look to see if truk arrive yet? Is 1942 Dodge, red star on dor. Tell driver call offiz please. Thankz.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:39
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): - RJ: Better not be short gold when the dollar tops out.
BB Fisher: Looks like the final blowoff is beginning today. I still have difficlty seeing 9000, but 8500 should be no problem. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:37
bb fisher y'all know the drill>(y'all know the drill): - part 2
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:36
bb fisher same deal as sunday>(same deal as sunday): - charts in 2 parts semilog for piecing together
they depict the percentage it would take of 1 unit of a hypothetical dow 30 average to purchase 1 ounce of gold.
ie:
dow at 8000 ==== .04% to buy one ounce of gold
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:34
TED @Comex>(@Comex): - Comex report: Gold up .10; Silver up 2 cents and Platinum up 3.30...despite strong Dollar...Dow up 18...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:12
TED @comex>(@comex): - Comex report: Gold up .20; Silver up 1 cent; and Platinum up 3.80...Friday is the big one...the Employment report...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:11
D.A. line.in.the.sand>(line.in.the.sand): - All:
The price of gold in DM is hovering around the 600 level. This is a big fat round number and has turned gold away over the past years. I have always wondered whether this was a price where selling came in from European CB's. The tone of the market is has been better of late and I think there is a real good chance of some strong upside action this week. The rally in 93 started with a similar breakout of gold in DM. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:08
TED @what else is new>(@what else is new): - Stox lookin strong to start the week as S+P futures now up 2.90...Noticed EBN Gold just turned up....Up .55....S+P futures up 3.10....
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 09:05
panda @>(@): - BillD -- I have been consumed this weekend with getting my PC working! I needed more storage space. As a result.... I haven't been paying much attention to the rest of the world. Regarding the PGMs, I can sleep well with the positions I have. Everything else, well... We shall see what the Russians feel is a 'fair' price for the PGMs. :- )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:54
BillD PGM'S ?>(PGM'S ?): - PANDA...what is your outlook on the PGM'S this week Any news?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:54
panda @>(@): - TED -- I'll take it! When do you want to trade? :- ) )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:53
Panda Stock Market Circuit Breakers>(Stock Market Circuit Breakers): - Panda: Here is an on-line novel where the author used his idea of a crash that was aggravated by the circuit breakers. http://users.uniserve.com/~synergy/getbook.htm
It sounded reasonable to me.
Regards,
Cmax - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:50
TED @panda>(@panda): - Panda:66 degrees and fog....S+P futures up 2.25....
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:46
Ron Rogue Speculators? Mahathir Should Know!>(Rogue Speculators? Mahathir Should Know!): - Looks like a case of sour grapes to me. http://www.smh.com.au/daily/content/970728/business/business7.html. Also, if you need to go to sleep, here's a nice url: http://www.smpke.jpm.my/ucapan.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:43
panda @>(@): - TED -- Do you want the Humidity and HEAT down here, up your way? I would be glad if you took it off of my hands! As I understand the weather forecast, you will be saving me with some nice cool Canadian air in a day or so.
In the FWIW column, I was going to post a chart of the Nasdaq Composite last night. I know this is a gold forum, but, on a log scale, the chart is showing an angle of 70+ degrees ascent! Gee, I wonder when we go to infinity? At this rate, not long. On the other hand, what goes up, and is caught by gravity, must eventually come back to earth. Hard hats will be required, along with, Duck and cover! :- ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:34
TED @panda>(@panda): - Mornin Panda...our houseguest from Boston area just arrived and the weather has suddenly turned south...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:32
TED @tort>(@tort): - Mornin Tort!....Comex Gold down .40 and Silver up 1.5 cents...S+P futures up 2.25 and the Dollar just hit a six year high versus the Yen...Long Bond up two ticks...Heavy FOG here...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:31
panda @>(@): - Cmax -- Not to worry, I understood your post. I just couldn't resist having some fun with it! :- )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:29
panda @(who's who?)>(@(who's who?)): - Cmax -- Are you having an identity crisis today? :- ) ) :- ) )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:24
Mike Sheller he said, tauntingly>(he said, tauntingly): - RJ: Hey, Hey, RJ, are you gonna cover your shorts today?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:22
Panda Stock Market Circuit Breakers>(Stock Market Circuit Breakers): - Panda: Here is an on-line novel where the author used his idea of a crash that was aggravated by the circuit breakers. http://users.uniserve.com/~synergy/getbook.htm
It sounded reasonable to me.
Regards,
Cmax - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:20
Donald @Home>(@Home): - LELAND: Good point. Everyone was worried about a shortage of shares, they were all being bought up by the conglomerates. I wondered if there were still so many participants in the market who had personal recollection of 1929 that the Wall of Worry syndrome kept creating corrections. From 1921 to 1929 there are no corrections on this chart, from 1987 to now, also no corrections. The implication to me is that we are due for a spike top. I am hoping for more opinions.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:18
Mike Sheller up to Speed>(up to Speed): - SPEED: You know me, Speed, when it comes to food fights I only throw cream puffs! My point is that I WISH WW was right about materialistic libertarians ruining this society. Considering how few of them there are, I suspect it has been the Democrats and Republicans who have been wreaking the cultural and philosophical havoc upon us for lo these many decades. I feel a truer kinship to WW, even though we appear to disagree about methods and approaches to human concerns, than I do to the mass of unthinking, uncaring people he is so quick to empty our pockets on behalf of. If there were as many libertarians in this society as WW imagines there are, I would feel very good about a growing preponderance of citizens who are not only looking at the human condition in a philosophical and structured manner, but are clearly on the right track as well. ( :+ ) ) Perhaps it is a question of definitions. Maybe WW has not taken the time to truly understand the philosophical position of the radical libertarian. WE certainly have had our fill of first hand experience of the liberal/centrist/conservative axis. Or maybe he was referring to librarians. In which case, I apologize for misunderstanding.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:09
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - DONALD: About 1966, there was so much conglomerating that year, I'd suspect those Dow numbers were non-typical.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:02
Milhouse In a quandary>(In a quandary): -
The problem with losing Hepcat from this group is that it now takes me a very long time to read through 24 hours of posts because almost every one of them contains useful information. Ah, what to do !! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 08:01
Cmax dow/gold ratio>(dow/gold ratio): - BB Fisher: Would it be too much trouble to publish your dow/gold ratio chart, except invert it so that the dow shows low ( when it was low ) and gold shows high ( when it was up ) ?
Yesterday, someone said something to the effect that to make a true gold chart, put a dot in the left hand corner of a blank paper, and then put another dot on the right hand corner, then draw a line connecting the dots. That is a gold price chart....and all paper fluctuates in relation to this. Redrawing your dow/gold chart would drive the point home. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:58
Milhouse Just a question of timing>(Just a question of timing): -
Donald - re your 27/7 09:59
Yes - I think we are only arguing over what stage of the terminal disease we are in. However, the answer is very important . If you believe we have at least several years of inflation ahead of us, which I certainly do, then you are likely to invest heavily in stuff. The next few years should see huge increases in the prices of all commodities . Those who start developing a posture now which is based on near term deflation will miss this opportunity. IMHO, of course !
Regards, Milhouse
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:57
panda @>(@): - Tortfeasor and All -- I posted the story some time ago, as it appeared in the Washington Post. It outlined the Federal Governments plans in conjunction with the Treasury and Federal Reserve. The plan does exist. It is not fiction. They have entry points to try and arrest market declines. If push comes to shove, they will declare a market 'holiday', but this is the last thing that they want to do! It seems with the advent of 'circuit breakers', a more serious problem has been created. Circuit breakers will cause more selling! The thought being, I'd better get out now! While I stil can! That assumes that you can get out at all! Not a good assumption! I'll see if I can find the story and post it.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:57
Milhouse @HK>(@HK): -
To : Eldorado
Re your 27/7 03:28 post. You said The only ultimate way out of the whole mess is to rid ourselves of a debt based economy ( where ALL money is loaned into circulation with interest ) . All else is ultimately doomed to pain and total failure.
This is absolutely correct. However, this ultimate way out is, IMHO, several years off. In the mean time we should see higher rates of money supply growth and higher interest rates. The higher interest rates will occur independently of the Fed as the market increases the inflation and exchange rate premiums on all dollar denominated debt.
BTW, if the Fed monetised 1 trillion dollars of new govt debt as I suggested, the money would be in the hands of the govt and theirs to spend in whichever way they thought would provide the greatest lift to the economy. Govts have never had any problem finding ways to spend money and thus increasing the money supply.
Regards, Milhouse
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:54
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean government takes steps to prevent financial turmoil.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:44
Tortfeasor Contingency Plan>(Contingency Plan): - I find it interstering that the Government is making a point of saying that it is not working on a contingency plan in the event the stock market crashes. I take this to mean that the government fears this happening and is scrambling to determine what it will do to save face when the crash happens. Here's the article http://nt.excite.com/reuters/970728/06.NEWS-MARKETS.html
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:42
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TORTFEASOR: They say that the pun is the highest form of humor: I think you just gave us the exception that proves the rule!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:35
Tw @ tort>(@ tort): - Thanks for the info.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:27
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - EBN is
http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCOMM.HTML-SSI - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:25
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - Morning Ted, gentlemen, ladies. I'm hard pressed for a good story today so I will post something from one of the old achieves that I like. I'm looking for a healthier gold and silver market this week. Its just too bad I don't have a wad to waste on all of this. Now the promised story.
A missionary couple was captured by some decidedly unfriendly natives,
tied together with a long piece of leather and left dangling over a large
cliff. That evening, the natives danced and chanted around the campfire
and as each member passed the leather strap holding the unfortunate
missionaries, he gave it a whack with a stick, causing it to weaken a bit
more. As the chanting grew louder and louder, the husband looked at his
wife romantically and said, Listen darling. They're fraying our thong! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:25
Tw @confused>(@confused): - EBN has silver up 9, Kitco has it up 5 and DBC has it up 1. I guess kitco must have it right since the average of the three numbers is 5. What is the URL for EBN? Thanks in advance.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:21
Donald @Home>(@Home): - STEVE PUETZ: We can tell that you have been on vacation at the beach by your use of beach ball under the surface analogies. Welcome back!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:20
TED @TW>(@TW): - TW:EBN.....
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:19
Tw @Home>(@Home): - Ted Where'd you get the up nine on silver quote?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 07:13
TED @mooney>(@mooney): - Mooney: Welcome back but the vacation is OVER!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:55
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Mike Sheller: Your response to WW is right on. I only add that WW represents many who posit trust and hope in government instead of a higher source. He will be disillusioned in time, probably quite soon, given the current levels of scandal, arrogance and incompetence prevalent in government. Some debate should be tolerated, especially since, as GSC has pointed out, a turn to the left will be bullish for gold. Yesterday marked a return to the golden era of Kitco. Let's all tolerate a little food fight once in a while. Things could be and were quite worse.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:52
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BB FISHER: I am I supposed to get my fund manager on the phone to tell him/her to SELL if Greenspan has the phone line tied up with his call?
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:47
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Thai market ( S.E.T. ) soared for the second day in a row on expectations the IMF will help Thailand deal with its growing financial problems..The U.S.Dollar strong except against S.E. Asian currencies where the Malaysian Riggit and The Thai Baht rebounded strongly....Good afternoon JIN!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:42
RJ Late isn’t it?>(Late isn’t it?): -
George - The times ain’t achaingin’ too fast. We will see lower gold, 300 gold, before any significant rally. A breakout through 350 would look a lot like a rally to this old trader. But we won’t see this breakout yet. Still has some bottom. 300 and lower. Yes I can see 275 but if that happens, our beloved silver will have to follow suit. I’m looking for another volatile week Day Trades!!!!!!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:36
Mike Sheller grass roots materialism>(grass roots materialism): - WW: re your 22:53 - The values evident in society which you decry come not from government, but from the people. The government comes from the people and is what the people deserve. People get according to how they think and act. It is not the materialistic libertarian rich who have brought this culture down by not thinking and spending their money on worthless and crude entertainments and excessive mass-produced luxury goods. It is the many, the little people, it is US. You end your post with the phrase
God willing, May I suggest that the answer to the dilemma you so rightly perceive in this sick and empty culture lies in an upward direction, rather than to the left or to the right. It is a spiritual problem, my friend, and until it is seen as such, there will be no hope of remedy. Do not be so quick to take your libertarian friends to task. Though you may disagree with their outlook, they are your true contemporaries and colleagues in humanity. For like you, they use their minds and their values to delineate and justify their actions. Do not expect such civil behavior from the mob when they come for you. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:35
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ALL: I am still looking at the bb fisher chart of yesterday and I hope we can get a few more comments. Notice the spike nature of 1929 vs: the very broad top of 1966. Can anyone offer an insight into the reason for the difference? And, an opinion on what the next top will be, spike or broad, and why you think that.
Another observation: after the 1929 crash there was a buy on the dip crowd who gave the Dow a powerful rally into April, 1930. That rally barely registers on the bb fisher chart. That might be useful information for the future if any of you stock bulls are waiting for a chance to buy on the dip in the future. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:31
bb fisher you are @ being warned>(you are @ being warned): - to all:
in the world of welfare state fudge where everything is on the table, language
is one of the surest ways to decipher what is really going on. of course it is necessary to like language, the grammar, syntax and the emotion words and their juxtaposition can create in the mind and heart. most officials who speak for government, corporations and the press are more ignorant than not about the unspoken messages they send every time they open their mouth. true, some know exactly what they are saying and not saying, information, disinformation... well that depends upon the goal desired doesn't it?
let's have a look at one mans remarks to the pres about the current bull market.
my remarks will be in parenthesis.
Sunday July 27 11:27 PM EDT
Clinton Aide Discounts Reported Crash Plan
WASHINGTON ( Reuter ) - President Clinton's top economic advisor threw cold water Sunday on report that federal regulators had been working on plans to prevent a financial meltdown in case of a major stock market drop.
( ( ( ask yourself:
why is this story coming out NOW to be officially denied? {cold water is not denial}, itself a caracature? in the world of unhindered credit expansion ups and downs CAN NOT be repealed but they CAN be pigeonholed to fit convienent calendar events like elections. EVERY bear market since Roosevelt has been so pigeonholed to come the year after or the second year after a presidential election. FACT! ) ) )
In its issue on newstands Monday, Time magazine said the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, chaired by Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, had been working on contingency plans to maintain orderly markets in case of a big selloff.
( ( ( ( the key words above that should garner your attention are in case of.
combine the in case of with above praragraph and ask again why now should the media report to the prols ( that's you ) the state is making contingency plans in case of? what does the calendar in your house say? ) ) ) ) )
Gene Sperling, head of the White House's National Economic Council, said the group meets periodically to talk about a whole lot of things, and of course, try to make sure that you're prepared for anything that happens.
( ( ( ( i am not sure whether Gene made a slip of the tongue or whether it was intentional when he chose to use the word you're instead of the more correct word we're when spoke of preparation. think about that for a minute. here is group that meets to discuss a whole lot of things, yet according to the first paragraph Gene threw cold water on talk of contingency plans in case of market crash. so why i ask is he using the word you're implying us prols instead of the familiar we're unless he is issuing a warning whilst dispelling any thought of worry on our part. ) ) ) ) )
But there's no urgency or anything new going on because the market's been strong, Sperling said on the CNN television program Late Edition.I think you could have had the same conversation when the market was at 5000, 6000 or 7000 ( points ) . The Dow Jones Industrials closed Friday at 8,113, off 3.49
points, pausing after three straight record closes.
( ( ( this is my favorite paragraph:
in language and psychology a reader can fairly accurately DISMISS whatever follows the ubiquitous weakly qualifying BUT in a sentence. in language it is the equivalent of a curve ball and should further heighten the reader to the intial points stated. pay attention to Genes choice of words to describe the current state of the market. he does not say the market is strong he say's the market's been strong. perhaps we can simply chalk this up to sloth on his part in education or effort. yet there it is .. past tense! the next word i like in this sentence is urgency and then the disengenuous you could have had the same conversation when the market was at 5000,6000,7000. Of course he is correct. so ask yourself again, why is this article being given media play NOW instead of when the market was at 5000,6000 or 7,000? ) ) ) )
Time said officials were reluctant to say anything about contingency planning out of concern that it would be misinterpreted as a statement on the market -- something they want no part of.
( ( ( ( don't you just love the way Time officials want their cake and eat to? they want the story and the consequences be dammed.. which sums up the modern american press anyway... yet they want moral absolution for their deeds in advance. modern liberalism to a tee! ) ) ) )
Formed after the October 1987 market crash, the group includes Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Sperling, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt, Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairwoman Brooksley Born.
According to Time, the financial policy panel is concerned about the potential for outflows from mutual funds, which have become swollen with individuals' deposits this decade.
( ( ( ( ( here is the key concern. note the concern is NOT with institutonal players ( my assumption is they can be jawboned, bought off or threatened to comply whatever the best interests of their stockholder may be... NO the worrry is with all those INDIVIDUALS, that's you prols, who may decide to leave the show at the same time despite the media's and wall streets best effort to focus y'all on the distant future. ) ) ) ) )
In the event of a crash the group would call fund companies to monitor activity, the magazine said, adding it was likely the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as it did after the 1987 crash.
( ( ( ( this last paragraph is comic and shows either their stupidity ( which i doubt ) or their perception of your stupidity ( which i believe ) to think that in the event of a crash telephoning mutual funds and lowering interest rates will handle things adequately. ) ) ) )
( ( ( ( the timing of this article and the play it is receiving suggest to me that we are getting very close to the next stage managed bear market. BUT not just YET. all good magicians have one trick up their sleave they save for last. experience has taught me that when a gift of this magnitude is offered by the media and officialdom unrequested, there is usually a zig before we receive the zag. What would be the best way of dispelling all concern of even the need for the above article whilst allowing officials to assuage their consciences down the road? if you guessed a massive market rally just ahead you get the gold star. the final rally in this part of the bull market, needs more than any other part of the bull, true optimists and fools to participate on the buy side. the savvy know better, both institutionally and individually. ergo, lotssa points in a short time to raise the manic level 2 notches whislt the savvy, who have been warned if not by this article then by more direct methods are preparing for the bear. we will NOT escape 1997 without at least a 1000 point ( i expect much more ) decline in the dow 30. before we get that however, the timing of this article and other factors compel me to suggest one more phenomenal rally lies just ahead. if i were to guess the most likely time period for the bear to commence i would say november and december... possibly even october but then, wouldn't that be a cliche?
Thanks Gene, Thanks Time! ) ) ) ) ) - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:25
George Cole gold and news>(gold and news): - Gold's reaction to news has VASTLY IMPROVED these past few weeks. This provides a strong signal the trend is changing from bearish to bullish. EBN gold down just 20 cents this morning despite a further surge in the dollar against most currencies. The times, they are a chaingin!
The hostility towards WW by some on this forum puzzles me. A turn to the left politically would be the most bullish thing possible for gold. The unprecedented arrogance of capital today would be replaced by a whiff of fear. And nothing drives gold up like rising fear among the elites. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:22
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good mornin ALL!...EBN Gold down .25 and Silver UP nine cents...
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:08
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Cmax -- Re: Your 21:29 posting. That sums up a many of my thoughts on the subject quite nicely! I wouldn't open a business in this country either! The risk/reward is simply way too high, and then add on all the headaches associated with the paperwork requirements. Why bother? You are also correct in stating that ALL wealth is eventually based on someone actually producing something. All else is just fodder for the flames when production of goods slows. Just let there be a little 'trade' friction or currency problems develop and the people of this country will then find exactly where their favorite items are made! They won't be finding them to be cheaper! They may find them to be simply unavailable! Those are the kind of conditions that used to be great for the new entrepreneurs but under current taxing and regulation BS, no longer. But don't be fooled. If we are expected to compete with third world countries, then we will simply have to bring our wages, taxes, and cost of regulations into line with them. It's the race to the bottom and hi-tech BS be damned.
I personally don't care how much 'currency' the government puts into the pipeline. If the general populace is having a hard time in paying the 'low' prices, then the prices will drop even lower and/or they do with less. One can argue whether that be caused by inflation or deflation. But one can certainly argue that it is sure to be a big cause of rising homelessness, delinquency rates, crime of all manner, and a continual degradation of the once prosperous neighborhoods, towns, and cities. Good paying jobs are the only real answer to the problem in getting purchasing power back into peoples hands, but we keep exporting those. Everyone can't be a 'brain surgeon', I.E. a currently in demand computer geek. And these types should be glad as their wages would fall accordingly! Until a reversal occurs in the policies of this country, the expansion of 'blight' in this country will continue. And until the working wages of people in these other countries rises to the point where they too can become true consumers of what they themselves produce to a much larger extent, then the 'bootstrap' time given by this country via our net importations from them will be for nought. We'll find a whole world that will have to pick its butt off the ground with no one around to help!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 06:08
Leland leland@netarrrant.net>(leland@netarrrant.net): - DONALD: I agree, B. B. Fisher has shown us what even a whiff of
inflation can do. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 05:55
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Hi Leland: I am very excited about that chart that bb fisher made. It shows a lot of history and lets me see the world from a different, I think more meaningful, point of view. Some of the commodity guys should look at their favorites in terms of ounces of gold. Inflation has disguised an awful lot of 20th century reality.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 05:37
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - DONALD: Thanks for being a fine tour guide during our drives yesterday
thu dow/gold country! - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 05:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - China declares immunity from currency speculation.
Yuan: China can resist speculation against
its currency
MONDAY JULY 28 1997
By Tony Walker in Beijing
China is in a strong position to resist speculation against its currency, unlike
other Asian economies which have been hit by slower growth, falling
exports and persistent current account deficits, Chinese officials have said.
The official China Daily Business Weekly, quoting officials of the State
Administration of Exchange Control, said China could build on its foreign
exchange reserves and inflow of investment capital to hedge against the
kind of currency upheaval that hit south-east Asia recently.
The paper noted large amounts of foreign capital had flowed into China,
but most was long-term direct investment and could not be withdrawn
suddenly.
China hosted a meeting in Shanghai last week of Asian central bankers,
who vowed to deepen co-ordination to protect regional currencies from
speculation.
A representative in Beijing of an international lending institution said China
was in a good position to avoid fallout from the currency instability in the
Asian region. The fact China had not moved to full capital account
convertibility made it almost impossible for speculators to attack the
currency - the yuan, or renminbi - adding: This is not a market for
speculators.
Chinese officials were quoted by China Daily as saying the composition of
the country's foreign debt acted as a further check against speculative
pressures: most of the debt was medium and long-term.
China's foreign exchange reserves stand at about $120bn ( £72bn ) and are
expected to exceed $135bn by the year-end. In the first six months China
registered a trade surplus of $17.7bn compared with about $12bn for the
whole of 1996. China Daily said strict controls on inflow and outflow of
capital was a further check against speculation, saying it was impossible for
large amounts of funds to flow out of China to trigger a financial crisis and
devaluation.
Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister, suggested yesterday
that destabilising a country's currency through speculation should be
regarded as a crime, writes James Kynge in Kuala Lumpur.
His comments came after he blamed Mr George Soros, the US financier,
for the recent depreciation of south-east Asian currencies.
We have worked 30 to 40 years to develop our countries to this level but
along comes a man with a few billion dollars, and in a period of a two
weeks has undone most of the work we have done, Dr Mahathir said.
Malaysia's foreign currency reserves fell M$8.8bn ( £2bn ) during a 15-day
battle with speculators recently. The ringgit, Malaysia's currency, has fallen
significantly, driving short-term interest rates higher and the stock market
lower.
Dr Mahathir said Mr Soros had attacked currencies of Asean nations
because he wanted to punish them for admitting Burma, criticised for its
human rights record. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 05:14
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Joburg Gold Index up 15.5 ( 1.6% )
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 04:37
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - THE LAST GOLDBUG @ ( WW what are you talking about? ) : WW is talking about the incredibly greedy rich ( read anyone with more money than he has ) who he seems to have an emotional hatred of, and not changing the Capital Gains tax so they can keep taking money out of the mouths of the working class poor. His terms have a familier ring to them. But then, he reminds us that there are a lot like him out there who have been trained by the NEA teachers we now have in the public schools.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 02:37
Jack Anyone know?>(Anyone know?): -
Where is all this gold moving through South Korea going?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/25/z0009_29.html - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 02:11
The Last Goldbug WW, what are you talking about?>(WW, what are you talking about?): -
The Pied Piper led the rats to drowning, but were the rats rats by the human interpertation.? Not receiving his intended monetary reward, he led the children to the mountains from whense they disappeared. Beware of do-gooders who profess elitist ideals. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 01:36
Westboy @another sign ?>(@another sign ?): - From Chris Cadbury:
2. Chris Cadbury: short interest ratio fell 12.3% from 7.34 days in mid-June to 6.41 days on Jul. 15, 1997. Such a large monthly drop is dangerous. Similar drops were announced about a week before the 1987 crash and almost a month before the start of the 1990 bear market. Perhaps you know the old Wall Street adage which says, The bull market is not over until the shorts are run in .
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 01:35
Vatican Contact The Pope is fuming>(The Pope is fuming): -
Reputable sources indicate the Pope is fuming about accusations that the Vatican received Croatian gold taken by the pro-nazi regime, in place there during WWII.
Discussions about advising each catholic family to purchase a minimum one ounce of gold per family member are presently underway. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:51
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - Stocks up-inflation low-real estate markets have backed down. Why? It's the Birth Rate. It's also demographics re a lower birthrate consumes fewer goods and services. Fewer children and one has more money to invest. Most inflation cycles in the past were driven by increased population. As population increases goods and services become scarcer. Also helping the inflation numbers is that so much excess liquidity is going into the stock and bond markets. These markets are being over-inflated but not the general economy. There is an ever increasing supply of goods and services without the increasing population to utilize these goods and services. Because of this decreased population growth the Japanese refer to price destruction. Yes, the third world's population is growing but that is slowing rapidly. The ever expanding markets which benefited big companies is coming to an end. When the markets adjust they may stay adjusted for a very long period; birth rates do not change over night. Nobody can predict the future but money could flow into gold as an over-inflated stock market adjusts to the new birth rate.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:45
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Intervention & manipulation ( I generally don't like the work manipulation since it generally implies conspiracy ) : Central Bank gold sales have been a gift to precious metal buyers. Gold would have been low anyway, because investors have been flocking into financial assets. Without Central Bank sales, gold could possibly be at $450 instead of $330.
For the time being, all of this selling pressure is like trying to hold a beach-ball deep under water. Once the pressure is released, the ball not only rises to the surface, but it keeps rising out of the water and into the air. Gold is so deeply over-sold that a similar high-pressure rise is likely.
To make a long story short, Central Bank intervention in the form of gold sales has paved the way for a powerful gold rally. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:36
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Don't know if anyone is interested in free macrohistorical data, but here's an interesting url http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/index.html Using the search function, I've found time series data there for CPI, unemployment, durable goods orders, GDP, etc. The problem is that much of the data peters out shortly after WWII ( why is that? ) . I'm always interested in data like this, so if anyone knows of alternative sources, particularly sources for more recent data, please post them ( or email me at ronm@ns.net ) . Thanks.
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:22
hong @kong>(@kong): - According to AP new gold opened up $1.50 in HK
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:18
Jack Keep e'm coming>(Keep e'm coming): -
If you have the courage to make a prediction, I respect you. You don't have to be right, cause I don't have to accept it; but I sure appreciate it. - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:12
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Okee dokee, here's my 2 cents worth on this whole great economy thing and why the Dow is so high.
A vast majority of the companies have gone through a painful downsizing. And to their credit, there was much dead wood that needed chopped out. I know one company, for example, that does all their copying at a Kinko's across the parking lot. Why? Kinko's machines are never down for repair. The quality is better and more consistent. The time wasted to go on a copying run is about the same. And they don't pay for the infrastructure of copiers and the resultant down time. ( For you non-USA lurkers, Kinkos is a chain of office stores that are open 24 hours. They have color copiers, computers, fax, mail boxes, and just about anything you would need to run a business. Their target market is the home-based business that wants to look cool on paper, but just can't get there from the lame technology hiding in the garage. Kinkos is a boon to those folks with all their high-tech stuff to make it happen. They will even scan onto a disk that photo of the grandkids that you've been dying to post on the internet! )
So, the new generation of managers have finally figured it out that bloated is not better. Shoot, I understand that even GM slimmed down a couple percentage points. IBM is sure looking spiffy in their new buffed out body. But.....here's where us goldbugs are going to come out ahead: as corporate profits continue to rise ( when you get rid of the deadwood in the forest, the resultant growth is phenomenal! ) these born-again managers will sooner or later fall victim to what killed the management before them. Mark my words - the company I mentioned above will eventually get cocky and decide to splurge on the luxury of their own herd of copiers, complete with 24 hour tech service. And perhaps a company car or two; or twenty. Maybe a little more give on the ol' expense account. HEY! I thought GM had slimmed down a bit!
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:10
Mooney @Very.Tired.Of.Politics>(@Very.Tired.Of.Politics): - Two roads diverged in a wood, and I . . . I took the one less traveled by,
and that has made all the difference. ----- Robert Frost, The Road
Not Taken - Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:09
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Pluto......... you are technically correct that Mike Sheller did not hit his Silver prediction. You did not mention, however, any of his other predictions that either hit the mark or did not. He called a good one with the Saudi oil deal with Iran, for example. You are not keeping score? Shame on you! [[BG]]
It's very easy to wag the tail on any given prediction here on Kitco. The key is to establish a track record on our prognosticators. The only consistent tracking I've seen is with Deaner - he even tracks his own predictions. Although he sometimes heavily hedges his predictions, he none-the-less has a very impressive track record. I'll give him a free plug:
http://www.prudenttrader.com/
- Date: Mon Jul 28 1997 00:08
klgjilfjor [q IORSGDAG[A>(IORSGDAG[A): - Hello Jin:
By my calculation, you've seen a 37% increase in the past 25 days. I think that the Gold traders will wait for a pull back ONLY if they are sure gold isn't going to continue upwards before a pull back starts. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 23:18
WW @NE>(@NE): - I am not a Clinton or Rubin fan ( as they are probably in part killing my gold investments ) but they have it right on taxes. Minimize capital gains tax reduction to the wealthy and give tax relief to the working class poor. Some will say this is welfare yet these hard working Americans pay SS/Medi plus sales taxes IE they pay taxes and at a higher percentage than some of what I call the incredibly greedy rich who want it all and make the lower class hard working people sound like unworthy individuals. This is hypocrisy at its worst/ Go Clinton/ Rubin hold back welfare for the filthy rich as much as you can. When we retake Congress we can raise taxes on the rich and give relief to those with lower incomes. Clinton basically has it right in wanting to emphasize tax relief based on lower earnings and less or no relief for those with higher earnings. I am writing to the Bean Town Globe tomorrow!!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 23:10
Mooney @Whatever.Shall.Be.Shall.Be>(@Whatever.Shall.Be.Shall.Be): - Go on vacation. Come back. Some improvements, ( esp. absense of whifling ) and some deterioration, ( WW - back to his political rhetoric ) . C'est la vie.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 23:06
Oliver @Deflation >(@Deflation ): - Puetz, here is an other perpective of the effect of delation with Japan after the bubble seven years ago.
What is bodering me is that they bought bonds not gold.
http://www.latimes.com:80/HOME/NEWS/WALLSTCA/t000066626.html
Oliver - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:59
JIN GOLD AND FOREX DIFFERENCE...>(GOLD AND FOREX DIFFERENCE...): - JKLDSJ ( Q,
to my calculation before and after the crisis should be...
1/july/97 appr u.s.1:2.4880 r.m vs u.s.1:2.6530 r.m ( 28/july/97 ) !the malaysian ringgits almost lost about 6.5%.so we have to paid more .
325 per oz+1.50 premium*32.148* ( 2.653-2.4880 ) =1731 rm or 653u.s more to 1 kilo of gold!my good ness......!how do you think we want to buy in such a high price.To my personal point of views,i think most asian players will wait and see for the more stable price.
any comments are welcome! - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:54
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Goldman: Regarding your 15:38 -- Good point. Gold is cheap. Before we took Economics 101, we learned the basics: Buy low, sell high. Gold is low relative to credit-supplies, therefore buy gold.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:53
WW @NE>(@NE): - If this whole deal comes down society will go on as J. Goldblum says in the LOST WORLD life finds a way. Hopefully we will rid ourselves of the selfish materialism/liberateranism that has gripped the so called higher levels of society. I hope we have a govt that urges us to all pull together according to their ability to pull and build a more equitable society that instills more than acquisitive values. Of course some of these values are necessary but should be minimized in their emphasis. I think a good mkt downturn and recession/depression creates the possibility of a much more progressive political paradigm than now exists. Maybe we will get lucky and get FDRII. God Willing!!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:53
Miro Increasing Value and Big Bangs from IT?>(Increasing Value and Big Bangs from IT?): - 6pak: questionable value and Big Bang is supported by some recent
studies which tried to measure ROI from IT. ROI is declining due to
extremely fast pace of IT. Many re-engineering and other IT related
projects are superseded by the new projects shortly after the
implementation ( or even before the full implementation ) because the
technology becomes obsolete ( or the implementation fails to bring the
advertised benefits ) - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:46
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - EBN Gold down .60 and Slver up 5 cents....
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:43
Bob @...Good Counterpoint on IT's impact on real growth>(@...Good Counterpoint on IT's impact on real growth): - 6pak: Thanks. Scientific America article brings up old but important debate. Good counterpoint.
Cheers - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:28
Zen Master @ NotaGoldbug - 22:25>(@ NotaGoldbug - 22:25): - That said it all !
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:26
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - EBN and DBC have the dollar up strongly against most major currencies. Looks like the yen is going down tonight.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:25
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): -
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:16
6pak Increasing Value @ Big Economic Bangs>(Increasing Value @ Big Economic Bangs): - BOB July 27 @ 15:29
John Lipsky chief econmist at Chase Manhattan, said, before the House
Banking Committee this week: Todays workers produce more in less time,
primarily because the large-scale introduction of computers is helping
them to do a better job
Scientific American, July 1997 *Taking Computers to Task*
By: W. Wayt Gibbs, staff writer.
THE PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE
Which direction businesses follow is important because productivity
growth is at the crux of economic sucess says Stephen S. Roach, chief
economist at Morgan Stanley. It is the only way a nation can increasing-
ly generate higher lifestyles for its households and separate itself
competitively from its peers
That much economists agree on. But the past decade has seen vigorous
debate over the seemingly poor payoff from industrial nations' 25 year
bet on information technology ( IT ) as an engine of economic growth.
Businesses buy computers for many reasons but most ultimately aim for
two goals: lowering the labor and overhead needed to make their product,
and raising the number and price of products they sell.
In both cases, ( IT ) investments should boost national productivity,
corporate profits and standard of living. What puzzles economists is that
productivity growth measured in the seven richest nations has instead
fallen precipitously in the past 30 years, from an average of 4.5 percent
a year during the 1960's to a rate of 1.5 percent in recent years.
The slowdown has hit the biggest ( IT ) spenders-service-sector industries,
especially in the U.S.-hardest. Most of the economic growth of the 1990's
can be explained by increased employment, trade and production capacity.
Computers' contributions, in contrast, nearly vanish in the noise.
In his book, The Trouble with Computers Landauer points out that if
mismeasurement is the answer, it must be mismeasurement on an implausibly
colossal scale.For if productivity growth was in fact just 1.25
percentage points higher than the economists have measured since 1960's,
then by 1995 official statistics understated the U.S. gross national
product by roughly $1 trillion, an error of about $10,000 per house hold
per year.
Many industries that made strategic investments in technology to become
more flexible and responsive to changing markets, Roach says, have in fact accomplished quite the reverse. Here's the rub, he explained,
About 85 percent of these outlays over the years have gone into banks,
securities firms, insurance companies, airlines, retail and the like. It
used to be that these companies' main assets were people
During recessions, they could lay off workers and remain competitive.
But now they have this massive infrastructure of installed ( IT ) whose
expenses are fixed, he points out, adding that in the next recession,
there could be an extraordinary crunch on their bottom line. So there
is a real downside here to the information age.
For all the useful things computers do, they do not seem, on balance, to
have made us much richer by enabling us to do more work, of increasing
value, in less time. Compared with the big economic bangs delivered by
water, steam-and electricity-powered machines, productivity growth
in the information age has been a mere whimper. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:15
6pak Increasing Value @ Big Economic Bangs>(Increasing Value @ Big Economic Bangs): - BOB July 27 @ 15:29
John Lipsky chief econmist at Chase Manhattan, said, before the House
Banking Committee this week: Todays workers produce more in less time,
primarily because the large-scale introduction of computers is helping
them to do a better job
Scientific American, July 1997 *Taking Computers to Task*
By: W. Wayt Gibbs, staff writer.
THE PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE
Which direction businesses follow is important because productivity
growth is at the crux of economic sucess says Stephen S. Roach, chief
economist at Morgan Stanley. It is the only way a nation can increasing-
ly generate higher lifestyles for its households and separate itself
competitively from - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 22:10
Vieserre home>(home): - DONALD: Where are you getting your quotes on the dollar, from where I got it, the dollar was up almost across the board.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - The dollar is very weak against all the currencies except the Asian currencies that are under attack. Mabye Hashimoto fooled us, sold his treasuries and bought silver!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:51
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PAUL: They seem to be off by exactly $1.00. Kitco is showing $4.33
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:45
Paul what's up>(what's up): - Anyone have good quote on silver.....took a look at EBN and ABN...they
are wacked out.....take a look - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:44
Donald @Home>(@Home): - China, Singapore, Malaysia stocks down. All the rest of Asia is up.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:39
Vieserre LBMA>(LBMA): - C-MAX: The issue on LBMA or OTC trading vis a vie the Comex with regard to price leadership is a question I have raised repeatedly on this forum and elsewhere with no substantive response, except for Earl's amplifier hypothesis. It is a missing link in my analysis, one that I have seen no analyst touch on, and one which I would appreciate your comments on if you find an answer.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:37
panda @>(@): - For a laugh, http://www.abn.com.sg/feeds/commodities.html has silver up $1.06. Boy, they sure are making a lot of mistakes this weekend.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:32
vronsky THE RED BARON>(THE RED BARON): - AN ENIGMA WRAPPED IN AN ANOMALY is the theme of a meticulous dissection of Central Bank Gold Operations & Its Ramifications. New analyst goes by the handle of Red Baron:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:29
Cmax Atlas Shrugged...last chapter?>(Atlas Shrugged...last chapter?): - Deflation: Any supposed deflation that may be felt at this moment, is only proof that the goverment has finally overcontrolled and overtaxed business, free enterprise, and man’s creativity. Almost all of my “well to do” friends that are self-made have thrown in the towel and thrown away what were once very productive business because of this overtaxation. ( I myself intend to do this same on December 31 ) The downside risks and costs now outweighs the upside profit potential.
With all these productive peoples throwing in the towel, how long do
Americans REALLY believe that service can feed on service, that is.......
............ a banker who recieves money from his his stock broker who recieves his money from the insurance agent who recieves from the real estate agent who makes his money on the lobbyist who pays his money to the prostitute. What I’m driving at is that service CANNOT feed on
service forever. Somewhere, SOMEONE has to produce a THING. And if no one is manufacturing, and who were once the producers are now in the “lower risk” business of mutual funds....WHO will provide the foundation for the country? Yeh, you can say that we are forging toward a New Era of “technological production”....but there is one great fault with this theory.....in that technology is intended to REDUCE human effort and
manpower requirements. A country that simply thinks “technology” is the answer, and not free market with minimal taxation, have really sealed their own fate. The producers are now overtaxed and striking, and we truely have the final chapters of Atlas Shrugged
now unfolding, but 40 years late.
As more and more factories shut down, and as more technology replaces more workers, we have the basic scenario for deflation, which interestingly ALLOWS THE GOV TO FLOOD THE WORLD WITH MORE AND MORE PAPER MONEY WITHOUT CAUSING AN “APPARANT” INFLATION...... FOR THE MOMENT......
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:22
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre): - Hi Vieserre! That would be a first for me...eh..! EBN Gold down .85...
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:20
Vieserre Well stated>(Well stated): - TED: Well said, thats the bottom line.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:19
Cmax Reply to Zeke in Kentucky>(Reply to Zeke in Kentucky): - Zeke ( kentucky.com ) :
Gentlemen,
CBs and governments are not gods!!!!
Just as day follows night, deflation follows inflation!!! How high can they inflate? How long?
Zeke: Inflation is a question of REALITIVITY, not absolute numbers. If a car used to cost $3995 and a house $22,000; and today a comparable car costs $39,950 and the house $220,000, that does not mean that the prices will come back down numerically, because the have inflated.
How much were you making when a house cost $22,000? How much do you make
today? It’s all realative. Take Brazil...they just added a zero every few months to their currency...and kept on “truckin’”. When ALL things rise numerically in value together, there is no real inflation, except for those who hold long term fixed rate paper.
*except for those who hold long term fixed rate paper*
Cmax
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:17
TED @vieserre(21:02)>(@vieserre(21:02)): - I am like you and I have no idea but just many guesses...I do believe though that there is no evil conspiracy to keep down the price of Gold!
My feel on gold and gold shares is while they may go lower I think there is so much more potential gain compared to the downside risk that it is a no-brainer.....especially if there are no time constraints involved.... - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:16
Cmax @Venezuela>(@Venezuela): - bb Fisher: GREAT Dow/Gold charts. Congrats. But I find that I get a better feel for gold’s movement by flipping the page over, and then upsidedown! ( Try it...you will see what I mean! ) P.S.:Now reading a little further, I see Donald suggested the same thing by
looking in the mirror...anyhow.....
Millhouse: thanks for your Sun Jul 27 1997 02:17 ( @Deflation ) . It filled in the blanks.
Donald: I think you have hit on something.......this dow/gold ratio. Throw out the CPI, M1, M2, M3, gann lines, Elliot waves, K waves, John waves, Jill waves, ( I wave! ) , and interplanetary and celestial influences. If this century’s paradigm hold true to form, and according to bb fisher’s chart, we are at the marked peak of a transition from a probable 30:1 ratio to 2:1 within the next 5 years. This could be a 15x revaluation of gold during this period....$5,000 gold is alright by me!
All:
Comex v.s. LBMA dilemna: I still have not seen a ration and complete explanation how this little “tail” can wag this huge Dobberman. This is still one of the great pieces of today’s puzzle that is not yet in place.
Cmax
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:04
WDL @spot gold>(@spot gold): - Bloomberg News' 9:00 p.m. report has spot gold down $1.00 to 325.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 21:02
Vieserre I am Looking For an Answer>(I am Looking For an Answer): -
TED: Do you think we have a bottom here because no one else expects it ....do bankruptcies mean disinflation or nothing else than loose credit being offered to an already bankrupt debtor ...if there is disinflation will gold go up even though it has been coming down for 10 years because of it ....are we going to get an inflation kick with improving global economies as suggested by the strength in oil and other cyclical stocks even though global inflation is the lowest in 25 years ... if there is inflation, will gold respond despite that it has not to recent earlier threats ... is Prechter right with his 400 call or are the others who predict a rising DOW infinitum ...... will our gold stocks rise if the DOW corrects just because of it .... does a deteriorating trade deficit mean anything when the governmental defict is nearly wiped out by the economy and less bonds are being issued because of it ... can the FED control an economy when it admits it does not know what devil is making it run .....is coke overpriced merely because its capitalization is greater than the GDP of India .... does it matter if there are more dollars scattered about in the world than sand on a beach... do the banks, governments, and everyone else that one can possibly think of conspire to demote gold ...... or are you like me, I have no idea ( : ) - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 20:35
TED @EBN >(@EBN ): - First EBN return of the night is in and Gold is down .25.....
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 20:29
TED @WW>(@WW): - Evening WW....Go Malaysia!...
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 20:28
6pak Inflation/Deflation @ Debate>(Inflation/Deflation @ Debate): - Fantastic debate Re: Inflation/Deflation, by thoughtful, and outstanding,
provocative stated positions. ( Donald, as special mention. )
I have, and continue, to accept Deflation, as a present, and a forward
position. Not in 25 years, but in fact, exists at present, and gaining.
Investment, in gold, is the only constant, it is basic in nature.
Fear, can be a positive emotion, it isn't always, a negative force.
You, can only be used - IF - You, want to be used.
Arrogance diminishes Wisdom.
Governments ! control, of Central Banks, NO.
World Central Banks, control Government, YES.
Elected Politicians, control government, NO.
Non-Elected Officials, Mandarin, career Professional Government Official,
control, Elected Politicians, YES.
They, ( Mandarin ) are the Government,YES.
Conspiracy, Manipulation, by Central Banks, NO.
Business, taking care of Business, nationally, Internationally, YES.
Modern Artificial Control, by Government, Business, Labour Unions, YES.
( Government = Mandarin ) ( Labour Unions = Labour Mandarin. )
( Business = Business Mandarin )
The FREE spirit of 1920's is dead, Bureacrat in 1997, is a massive and monolithic, force of uniformity. ( Business-Government-Labour Unions )
The Bureaucrat of Russia, is the same monster, in the Free World.
Russia crashed because of such a Bureaucrat monster, we will also, to be
sure. The reasons are the same ( Modern Artificial Control )
BOTH Bureaucratic in nature, they ( Mandarin ) expect, the people can not act, without the state, as the control mechanism.
Investors, require up-to-date-and-minute-information, therefore,
government, has the need for information, and require that the population
be forced to provide all private and intimate information, if you do not
provide information on demand, the Mandarin government will force you.
The reasons, that deflation is here, and will continue, the
people, are about ready to over come the Mandarin Government, ( it ) may
have been necessary, during the COLD WAR, but, no longer. Inflation,
is a real existence, to be sure. Realizing the fact that money, wealth,
has been created from nothing, via, paper money.
Nothing = Something, most interesting. ( You must believe, eh! )
Vanities & Vexation, will be the short circuit, of the Modern Artificial
Control System. Continued Inflation !, my take suggests, NOT A CHANCE.
Einstein, suggested, when one gets lost, in their understanding of life,
one should look to nature for the answer, well, here in Canada, we have
four seasons, the fall, brings on the winter, and spring is the rebirth.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 20:20
WW @NE>(@NE): - Geo Soros is a LIBERAL IN THE HONORABLE ROOSEVELTIAN SENSE OF THE WORD!!! He is pushing for more freedom including the so called free states of Eastern Europe.
Go George!!!!! - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 20:09
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Soros continues to make enemies....Malaysia's prime minister Mahathir Mohamad continued his attack on Soros saying speculation that destablizes currencies is a crime....Way to go George!....Currency crisis in S.E. Asia could give gold a big boost if it gets much worse...
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - I just did a reality check on Dell Computer. Someone check my math.
Closed Friday at 163 ( down 7 ) which, by coincidence, is exactly the price of one-half ounce of gold. There are 334,944,000 shares outstanding. ( Not counting options ) Dell Computer is worth 167,500,000 ounces. All the gold on deposit in the Federal Reserve equals 263,390,000 ounces. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:51
panda @!!!!!!!>(@!!!!!!!): - Byron -- I started a simple enough task on Saturday.... I wanted to replace a hard drive with slightly 'larger' one. No problem I thought.... Then Windows NT reared its dark side! I am still 'semi' on line here. The price you have to pay for a few extra gigabytes! ( Not in money either! )
Regarding Schwabee, I haven't heard anything from them yet. If the technology gods allow it, I'll drop Schwab an E-Mail, sometime! Back to work on the P.C. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:41
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy Section - III>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy Section - III): - Professor Miller of New York University - describes the dire economic and financial consequences subsequent to Japan’s own excessive and IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE: “The Bubble Bursts: 1990-91”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/cscb003.html
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:32
Savage [[[[[]>([[[[[]): - bb fisher: re your 13:47...we can agree to disagree on this one point. I enjoy your charts & market savvy.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:28
Vieserre Thanks>(Thanks): - I would like to thank all for the many valuable contributions today which makes me appreciate how little I know and how much I should know.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:21
Vieserre A Prechter Forecast of the Long Wave>(A Prechter Forecast of the Long Wave): - AUROPHILE: As a fellow long E-Waver, you should be interest in the following from an interview with Robert Prechter, which I recently received by Mercury Mail:
The markets have reached an apex in a century-long wave, and are now poised for a correction that will wipe out virtually all their gains of the past several decades.I am totally serious about the retrenchment to 400, says Prechter. But I can understand why most people wouldn't be, since it is something that has happened only once in this century, and once in the early 1700's [in the London stock market] before. Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist has been predicting the Big Fall since 1983. ( In wave theory, patterns always repeat themselves, but it is difficult to predict the periodicity, responds Prechter. )
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:15
WDL @ currencies>(@ currencies): - Can anyone tell me why, according to EBN, the Dollar is down nearly
3 % versus the Singapore currency? - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:06
aurophile r>(r): - MikeSheller: I baffle even myself on occasion...:- ) What I was trying to say is that stocks are ahead of gold in the Kwave cycle, as if that were not alrady clear on other grounds....From 1945-49 both stocks and gold ( gold stocks since gold was stable ) flattened out or went down. Since stocks are so far ahead this time, I suspect just on these grounds alone that gold will outperform.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean bailout planned.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0728/m0728b01.html - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 19:01
Lefty Silver>(Silver): - Pneuma 15:37 The only positive thing I can think about Silver
is since alot of silver is producted as a by producted of
gold mining, that if gold mines are shut down then this would also
decrease the production of silver. Anyone else have any ideas for
a bull case for silver - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 18:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Results for next weeks Korean Stock Market available now.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0728/m0728b04.html - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 18:27
Byron @ The Cisco Kid Was A Friend of Mine:>(@ The Cisco Kid Was A Friend of Mine:): - U.S. Comes To The Aid of Soro. http://www.afr.com.au/content/970728/world/world1.html ... It good to have friends in high places.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 18:20
TED @earl>(@earl): - Earl ( 15:53 ) Welcome back...ain't it great!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 18:09
BillD My thanks to Bart>(My thanks to Bart): - What a pleasure to read the chat today. Bart is my hero! Whattasite!!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 18:06
capnkev @SHECALLS>(@SHECALLS): - BBL wife says its dinner time
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 18:04
capnkev @home>(@home): - 'Evening folks, been busy setting up DTNstant system, anyone familar with it? they say it takes up to 48hrs to load all data , its got RT quotes, alarms etc, been screwin with it for past coupla days.: )
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:53
kiwi on basket cases>(on basket cases): - Below an article on the setting up of CLS for currency settlements. Admitting there is a serious possibility of GLOBAL CURRENCY BREAKDOWN is gold to my ears. One cowboy on his high horse and the whole basket of eggs ( currencies ) is smashed, only the GOLDen egg will not be smashed.
Global banks found CLS company, G20 dissolved
ZURICH, Switzerland ( Reuter ) - The world's major banks have
jointly founded CLS Services Ltd. as part of their ambitious
plan to create a global foreign exchange settlement bank.
With the birth of CLS Services, the banks dissolved the
Group of 20 ( G20 ) , the informal group that acted as a catalyst
in setting up what could become a one-stop shop for settling
deals in the $1.2 trillion per day foreign exchange market.
All the members of G20, which together account for some 40
percent of daily foreign exchange volume, have become
shareholders of CLS Services, founded on Tuesday in London.
CLS, chaired by Stephen Thieke, managing director of J.P.
Morgan, will be open to participation by other banks and
instititions that provide netting services, said Rob Close,
director of payments strategy at Barclays Bank.
``CLS will provide an opportunity for others to become more
directly involved,'' Close told Reuters.
Close declined to specify the size of CLS's capital, but
bankers have estimated the cost of developing a CLS bank at
between $70 million and $80 million.
The hope is that CLS can integrate or closely cooperate with
the Exchange Clearing House ( ECHO ) and Multinet International
Bank ( Multinet ) , the two institutions that currently offer
multilateral netting.
Talks between ECHO, Multinet and G20 have been under way for
some time with the aim of offering the banking industry an
integrated solution to settling foreign exchange transactions.
Another group of commercial and investment banks, the Group
of 40 ( G40 ) , also favors a single-industry solution and will
meet CLS next week to discuss cooperation.
The founding of CLS marks a milestone in the efforts by
central bankers and the banking industry to reduce the risk of a
breakdown in the foreign exchange settlement system.
CLS Services has been set up to develop a bank that can
offer real-time settlement of foreign exchange transactions,
based on the principle of Continous Linked Settlements ( CLS ) .
Live testing of the CLS bank's settlement system is targeted
for the first quarter of 1999.
The system would synchronize payments in foreign exchange
transactions and thus protect banks from the risk of a
counterparty failing during the settlement stage.
CLS is a response to concern by central banks over the
fragility of the foreign exchange settlement system and the
systemic risk it poses to the global financial system.
Foreign exchange transactions account for the lion's share
of domestic payment systems. Disruptions to foreign exchange
settlements could quickly cause gridlock in global payment flows
with serious implications for economic activity.
Turnover in the daily foreign exchange market doubled from
1989 to 1995 to an average $1.2 trillion. But since each trade
involves at least two payments, bankers estimate that daily
transactions could be around $3 trillion.
Worried over systemic risk, the Group of 10 ( G10 ) central
bank governors last year called on banks to quickly improve
their settlement systems, both within their own back-offices,
but also industry-wide.
So far G10 central banks have been consulted about the CLS
project and view the initative as a constructive step in
reducing foreing exchange settlement risks.
G20, founded in 1994, links the following banks:
ABN Amro, Bank of America, Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank,
Banque Nationale de Paris, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Chase,
CIBC, Citibank Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Bank, Fuji
Bank, HSBC Holdings, J.P. Morgan, National Westminster, Royal
Bank of Canada, Swiss Bank Corp, Societe Generale and UBS.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:52
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:52
Vieserre @ home>(@ home): - GEORGE COLE: What evidence to you have that would support such a high price of 400 to 500. According to GFMS, taking into account producer supply and scrap less fabrication demand, there was a short fall of only 290T in 1996. As to producer hedging, producer forward sales on the demand side of the equation created a positive influence in the market in 1996 as producers were taking off more hedges than adding to them accounting for additional demand by producers. Net CB selling in 96 only contributed to about 250T which was above average. Further only 1/3 of the above ground gold supply is held by banks and the substantial remainder in private hands. Even considering the amount held as jewelry, there must be an enormous amount held as investment and other use, which is evidenced by the high LBMA turnover. And these investors are going to do what a prudent investor would do with a non-performing asset. And it does not take much marginal selling to bring the price of gold down in value. Presumably that is why gold has historically performed better in response to economic conditions, and why it has been used as an economic indicator, as opposed to demand and supply considerations based solely on fabrication demand and producer supply. During the past 10 years of so, there has been a trend of disinflation and a favoring of financial assets as so very well demonstrated in Fisher's charts that has attributed to the fall in gold. Not to CB selling since such selling has been minimal and certainly not due to producer hedging since any such hedging does not add to supply over a period of time.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:36
Mike Sheller @Martini Time>(@Martini Time): - Let me say, first off, that this has been one of the most fabulous intellectual Sundays in Kitco History. This will be included in The Best of Kitco on CD Rom & Zip Disk. AUROPHILE & BB FISHER: To paraphrase Will Rogers, I never met a chart I Didn't like. And to paraphrase Father Flanigan, There's no such thing as a bad Chart. Thank you both for a wonderful Sunday. BB: Whilst? Can I surmise you are from the Mother Country? Re your 13:47, I worship at your feet! AUROPHILE: Your 15:15 has me totally baffled. I think I'm on overload. I will get back to you on your gold top for 2036. Between the TWO of you, Thanks for the magnifico repartee!!!!
PNEUMA: HI HO SILVER. Just buy some. JACK: Manipulation is PART of the markets. Let us learn to love it and live with it as we did with the bomb. The Price is what it is. Just GET REAL...GET GOLD. Just buy some. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:35
Chris K Lee CKL1948@aol.com>(CKL1948@aol.com): - Reviewing the XAU and Spot Gold price charts today, I concluded that the current Bottom was July 7, 1997. Historically XAU lead the gold price in a gold bull market ( in 1985 and 1993 ) . A recent drop in the gold price did not result in significant drop in XAU. I know it is a little too soon to tell if it is truely a turn-around. I appreciate any comment on my observation
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - SKYLARK: At Bretton Woods in 1944 we agreed to redeem dollars for gold at the $35 rate when when they were presented by Central Banks. Starting about 1962 the free market in gold, operating in London, didn't think we could keep that promise. Gold reached $40 at one point as I recall. The Fed supplied the gold at a loss rather than admit there was a problem. In 1968 they gave that up as losses mounted and established a two tier system. CB's at $35 and free market was allowed to float. Charles DeGualle of France started to put the pressure on as he felt that the US did not have enough gold to cover the CB dollar holdings at the $35 price and that we were printing too many dollars. Finally Nixon closed the window in 1971.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:08
tom @sprynet>(@sprynet): - Donald-
Your observations are well taken. As I see it, your comments mean that gold represents a good of finite quantity ( hopefully soon enough ) that can be compared to the Dow to show the Dow in constant dollars. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 17:01
Skylark home>(home): - DONALD: If gold was fixed until 1971, and once released of this restraint substantially increased in value relative to the dollar as displayed by the charts, then it is presumed that if gold were not restrained the Dow/gold ratio would not have reached the 28.61 high. And if that assumption is correct, then has not corporate America performed better than what the chart appears to indicate. Or am I missing something.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Here is what they will be reading in Oz when they get their eyes open.
http://www.afr.com.au/ - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:50
ted butler tedjbutler@aol.com>(tedjbutler@aol.com): - PNEUMA,
This doesn't qualify as discussion, just a few observations;
1. Comex warehouse stocks are at new yearly lows as of friday. If you subtract the Delaware stocks ( I think reasonable because this warehouse doesn't function normally, i.e., stocks moving in and out, since its inclusion 1/1/97 ) we're at 10+ year lows.
2. Last COT ( as of 7/15 ) showed best numbers ( lowest commercial net short and highest fund net short and lowest public net long ) since origin of report. This applies to both futures and futures+options. Although we've had some deterioration since then, I never thought the dealers could engineer themselves into such a non-short state. Maybe they can do even better ( with lower prices )
3. Possible island formation developing on weekly charts.
4. Found it interesting that in the NY Times article today on Abby Cohen, they showed a picture of her in front of the Goldman Sachs price board. It listed about 25 or 30 indices DJIA, NASDAQ, other major world indices, major currencies and bonds.There were only 3 commodities listed - oil, gold and silver. I found it curious because on a dollar equivalent basis, silver doesn't belong on that board. Of course, that's at current prices.
For what's it's worth, I've always envisioned silver taking off like a scalded cat when the dealers had themselves positioned as good as possible and when they knew the cash market couldn't lure sufficient leased metal to satisfy the deficit. I agree, we won't get much warning. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TOM: You can re-write your comments and in each case where you have used the word gold substitute the word dollars. They are now just a commodity that can be printed at will. What the Dow/Gold ratio chart shows you is that the Dow price of $8113 is a fraud. The Dow is only $900 or so in 1966 dollars. All these people who think they are millionaires are being hoodwinked. Inflation tells you a lie, gold tells you the truth. What is sad to me is that I look at this chart and see that corporate America went nowhere for 31 years. These numbers of 5%, 4%, growth are bunk. This chart tells you that there has been -11% growth over the past 31 years. This country is in serious trouble, there is no way we can continue to claim that we are the world leader with numbers like these.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:36
tekgk bb fisher>(bb fisher): - 1024 bit encription is here. It can't be broken. This is the first step to reduced government power.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:36
George Cole gold prices>(gold prices): - Jack: In the absense of forward selling by producers and cheap CB gold loans to short sellers, the gold price probably would be somewhere between $400 and $500. If inflation picked up, $500-$600. This is just a guesstimate, of course.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:35
morgy productivity@expenseofpotentialconsumer>(productivity@expenseofpotentialconsumer): - The other day I was lectured to by one of my friends who said the economy is booming. Everybody is just so much more productive than ever before because of technology that the economy will continue to boom with all the cost saving and efficiency.I asked that if the consumer is 3/4 of what drives the economy and if so many good paying jobs have been replaced by the productivity of technology besides longer hours etc what will keep on driving the economy except for people in technology work. It would seem that all around one would need less workers.
Although I see lower paying jobs and fewer good jobs as deflationary,gurus such as Sir John Templeton have said that western governments won't allow deflation. I think a backlash will come soon, since at the same time safety nets are being cut away, and more and more voters will be in the same boat as the society becomes a two class one. Inflation will start appearing in other things besides the necessities of life. ( It seems that the government doesn't like to count higher phone bills,electricial bills,grocery bills,insurance bills,transportation,education ) .
Now with this stock market mania, will funds ever start flowing back into gold and other hard assets or will people start investing again in the emerging markets?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:22
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BOB: I had thought about your question some time ago. It would seem logical that the early gold prices, before 1932, being fixed at $20.67 were artificially low. My basis for that is that when Roosevelt took office and took us off gold he let the price rise on the free market to $35 before fixing it at that level. The point is that the free market set the price at $35, the government merely confirmed it.
That being said, it would seem that the 1929 ratio of 18.43 ounces is suspect from a free market standpoint. On the other hand, if we had not had the 1929 crash and, the Depression that followed, the freemarket might have set a lower price for gold during the 1932-1933 period. Thats the best answer I can give. I will take the free market price any time. The historic events you cite obviously have an impact on markets to the extent they influence fear and greed. What we are trying to do now by asking ourselves these questions is to determine what new historic events are in the future and what reaction markets will have to them. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:19
tom @sprynet>(@sprynet): -
I have been staring at the Dow to gold chart for some time and it disturbs me for some reason. Why? I will try to delve more into it.
A perfunctory glance shows some trending action -- especially and quickly in downmode. But you could easily see most of these movements take place not only in the ratio, but each movement can be attributed at different times to movement in the Dow or gold itself ( as well as perhaps other
commodities ) . So really, what is the ratio worth?
Perhaps the ratio implies a median point of value of the Dow to gold that ossilates back and forth throughout time only to return to some predicated, perfect value. A number which shows us that all is right with the universe. 16 to 1 was supposed to be the value of silver to gold. As we all know by now, this is not necessarily true for these two commodities. I therefore submit that the dow to gold ratio is not a number that can trade back and forth 'knowing' it will return to some value in the next blah years.
So, what about that economic princle of supply and demand. Could it apply to Gold and the Dow? When you come down to it, Gold is a commodity just like any other. There have always been other mediums of exchange and will always be alternative mediums of value. Gold is just another commodity subject to the whims and forces of supply and demand. Nothing mystical--a value ascribed by the market. And what about the dow? It be said that the dow represents a basket of the commodities we know as stocks. Themselves commodities to be traded, valued, and held. Subject just as gold is to the forces of the market.
So what? Who cares? So they represent a kind of 'commody'...What does it matter? Looking at the ratio one is tempted to begin to draw conclusions as to whether gold is undervalued. Or is the dow overvalued? What does the ratio imply for the future? Is gold going up or down? I don't think we can draw such conclusions. The dow can be compared to the price of tea in China and what are we really comparing--the price of two 'indexes' over time. For each of which the price is determined by the factors of supply and demand in its own separate market. What does it tell us of the
future--nothing. What does it tell us of the value of one compared to another--are apples overvalued when compared to oranges. No. For each the price is determined by supply and demand in their own respective markets. Can one be influenced by another? Certainly people may jump out of stocks and buy gold. Or they may not. They may buy diamonds or swiss francs or apples or oranges. But in any case we'll all see the effect on the gold market as soon as we see it on the dow to gold ratio.
IMHO, the trouble with comparing two price 'indexes' whose markets are not linked as very close substitutes or complements is that we are tempted to make comparisions or project into the future according to what the price of each have been doing. This is a mistake. Understand first, each within it's own market and what you think about the future supply and demand for each separately. Silver is not locked into gold at a certain value and we cannot project into the future using the silver to gold ratio. Silver has its own market to bear just as the dow index and gold does.
This all is written in the good faith and hope of proper anaylsis of the markets. BTW let's all hope the market for gold lightens up.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 16:01
Jack Questions:>(Questions:): -
May I ask our Guru's; Steve P., Mike S., G.S., Aurophile and all the following 3 questions concerning AU & AG.
1. With out the obvious fixing of todays gold and silver prices, what would today's prices be for AU & AG lacking the manipulation?
2. AU & AG prices with the populace believing that a strong inflation trend was amongst us?
3. AU & AG prices with the populace feeling we were in a depression?
My figures 1. AU@$450-$600 AG@$12+; 2. AU@$600;AG@$20+ 3. Cannot figure, but they should have much greater purchasing power than in 1 or 2. Silver prices trouble me in this scenario. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Been out since Thurs. Civility has been restored. What an absolute delight it is to catch up on the gossip in this atmosphere.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GOLDMAN: To try and answer your question accurately, it is 11% higher than it was in 1966. Someone check my math, it is $38.85 in 1966 dollars.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:44
Bob @..the problem with gold/x ratios past 1975>(@..the problem with gold/x ratios past 1975): - Gold had a fiat price instituted by the US govt ( $35 ) until Nixon ( 1972 ) lifted the fixed price sale of gold and later US citizens were permitted ( 1975 ) the right to own gold bullion. What impact do these historic events have on the interpretation of the gold/dow ratio ? Do you think that the market had factored into the ratio ( or discounted ) these events ?
Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine what to make of the mid-1970's gold events in relation to the Dow/gold ratio posted bgy bb Fisher. These events were also over-shadowed by the Oil crisis ( 1973-75 ) and a slow recovery of the 'nifty-fifty' ( 50 major NYSE/DOW stks ) after the 1972-74 Bear market. Sometimes statistics do mislead rather than illuminate.
Cheers - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:38
Goldman is it cheap?>(is it cheap?): - With all due respect to the numerous chartists, the critical question
is---- is gold cheap or not? If gold is cheap, then buy it and burn
the charts. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:37
PNEUMA MWYCORP@EROLS.COM>(MWYCORP@EROLS.COM): - Silver is dead, don't bother with the shovels because it don't smell.
1. On 6-19 CDE threw a hammer pattern of classic dimensions, yawn.
2. On 7-11 Standard and Poors' upgraded CDE to 4 stars, from avoid to accumulate, weariness.
3. In most every stock or commodity chat forum you can count on one hand the number of positive comments about silver, heavy lids.
4. Nearly every pundit, with a few exceptions like Ted Butler, are absolutely convinced that silver is either range bound or down bound, hard to stay awake when I hear so much boring talk.
Is it possible that most of us expend such a great deal of energy during our anticipation of trend changes that we are asleep as it passes silently during the night? Do we expect trumpets to sound before all important events?
Any chance for a discussion?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:30
Donald donald@uconect.net>(donald@uconect.net): - AUROPHILE: I urge you to go back the 2 bb fisher posts at about 5AM. He has 2 charts that can be pasted into one 100 year chart of the Dow/Gold Ratio. In order to get full labeling I had to change my printer to landscape mode before printing it out. This is more than a chart of a century, it is The chart of the century. I posted my e.mail address. If you can't get it, e.mail me your mailing address and I will send you one by snail mail. ( offer open to all )
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:29
Bob @... article on wacky economics cited earlier at restricted URL should be available here>(@... article on wacky economics cited earlier at restricted URL should be available here): - http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970727/business/stories/economy_6.html
Information Technology increases productivity and kills inflation. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:28
aurophile o>(o): - Donald: With bb's 2nd chart printed out in landscape format, the ewave picure I just painted stands out boldly: 1980-87, 1987-90, 1990 to now, with 1990 to now showing primary wave 1 to 1994 and primary 3 to now. A cautionary: you will find nearly as many ewave counts as ewavers... or flationists. LOL!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 15:15
aurophile p>(p): - Donald:
The chart I got from bb fisher's posting only ran to mid 1993. Nor does it have a price legend on it. So I mispoke the absolute level as being the same as 1976. The current Dow/gold ratio is, in fact, at nearly the 1966 level.
In Kwave terms I believe that we are at the 1944-46 point in terms of commodity prices. Due to progressive dollar debasement the times are set to a higher price and ratio.
IN Ewave terms the stock market completed cycle wave one from 1980-82 in 1987, cycle wave two in 1990, and we are well into cycle three ( probably primary 3 of 5, being the next lower degree of waves ) in 1997. Thus the stock market is running a little ahead of schedule as compared to gold and prices in the previous Kwave cycle. On bb's chart the stock market is about at the 1955 point. I think both selected stocks and gold will do well in the years ahead ( and dollars poorly ) . Since gold was fixed ( a most pregnant phrase... ) in earlier times, bb's chart is in essence a DOW chart until 1971, so working off it to guess at gold's price is trying to solve for 2 variables with one input; but based upon what gold stocks did in the 1950's ( they bottomed ) , I see little downside for gold and the start of its long and inexorable if initially unexciting run to the top in about 2036. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:55
SJJ steffenjaege@metronet.de>(steffenjaege@metronet.de): - John Disney: Thank you much for your answers, now I`m reassured and will holding Implats :- ) .
Anybody noticed: Bad news last week ( russion publication to sell AU in October ) had lead NOT to weaker AU-price for the first time in last few month. I`m surely no good bottom-prophet, but this is a first hopeful signal, that we have seen the lows. Jump of US-Dollar against the Mark was also good digested by bullion. What will now lead to prices around 250? Are there more Central-Banks which could announcing to sell? Theo Waigel and Hans Tietmeyer will not decide to sell before autumn 1998 ( next german elections ) , because it looks not good for Helmut Kohl: Prediction on inquiry this week: FDP 4%, CDU 33%, SPD 43%, Bündnis90/Grüne 13%. When CDU/FDP are selling Gold, next election is lost with safety, because gold-selling is very unpoppular.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:50
leaner reply.eldorado>(reply.eldorado): - Money Creation: They only create paper promises, they don't create the interest for those paper promises!! A Puppy chases its tail until it gets tried and needs to lay down!! Who owns all the $150,000 houses on your block the inhabitants or the bank Who owns all those new $40,000 Suburban's the drivers or the banks Who owns those $300,000 children
you've brought up since birth you or the banks There is ZERO the banks don't own in society today, less say afew choice souls.
Went out last night spent all the money in my pocket, went to instant broke machine and it was closed for transaction updates, so I figured I
try another chartered bank and wha la its was closed also. After searchinga few more banks and instant tellers I realized every financial machine was down for a transaction holiday across the entire Central Okanagan. Never fear we divised a plan of action, go to the service station put gasoline in the tank and ask for some extra CASH, thank gawd for the gas stations!! No Fear we got More Beer.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:49
aurophile p>(p): - bb fisher: Fawning respect eh? That'll teach me to praise you....LOL! The permanent tourist folk may think they have escaped the jackboot of the state, but that is only because they are on holiday, as it were, and have left their antennae at home. I couldn't agree more that the Net has given the freedom players another ingenious wedge for their golf bag, but it doesn't guarantee that we'll all be as rich and famous as Tiger Woods. Or even as free.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:41
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: I remember a book called The Invisible Crash during the 60's. This chart sure makes it visible doesn't it. OK, I see how you got the 3 wave count 1966-1980. You say we have had the first leg up. Does that mean you ignore 1987 for wave counting purposes? Is the first leg up 1980 to today? You seem to feel that this chart is positive for both gold and stocks in the near term, did I read you right?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:30
bb fisher oh aurophile>(oh aurophile): - aurophile:
your fawning respect for the powers that be have always fascinated me.
but then you surely recall a question i posed to you a ways back and your negative retort never quite satisfied me as fully correct.
but that is another story for another day.
i agree that for most liberty is more trouble than it is worth..as it has always been. my point is simply that it has never been easier in all of human history to as nancy reagan so eloquently stated, just say no. one does not have to shout from the roof or take and ad out in the newspaper to accomplish the goal. as had been said before, of the 30 ways to escape danger the easiest is too leave.
the trouble with technology is that it becomes the master rather quickly. once enough commerce migrates to the net those with real power will lose too much potential business by restricting its usage or its content. if you know what to do it will be the easiest to way to make a buck from a mass audience that has ever existed. every shrewd and honest and shrewd and crooked operator will open a stand.
no sirree aurophile, if you really believe that we are on the upcurve for the next 25 years no way will anyone mess with the internet, cause that is where the money is going and where it will be made. those who would control the masses will have to figure out a way ( futile in my opinion ) to graft push technology ( like TV ) onto and inherently pull medium.
that should be fun to watch, don't ya think? - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:29
aurophile o>(o): - Donald: In Ewave jargon 3 waves down means there were 3 waves from the top to the bottom, 2 of which were headed down ( impulse waves ) and 1 which was contra-trend. wave 1 or A was to late 1974, wave 2 or B to 1976, and wave 3 or C to 1980. The comparable moves in the previous Kwave cycle ( IMHO, and I reserve the right to be wrong ) were 1929-32, 1932-37, 1937-42.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:25
WDL @ New Age Economics>(@ New Age Economics): - Reuters article...even Greenspan doesn't know what's going on.
http://www1.netcom.com/bin/webnews?a=Biz_Top:Rl7_jfVRUymonoc - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 14:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: Can you go over your analysis of the bb fisher chart for me again in a little more detail. I sort of feel that the D/G theory is my invention. I stumbled/fumbled on it after the M2/MB let me down. I am not an EW expert by any means so on three waves down from 1966, can you pinpoint them for me so I can follow along. I see two clear waves. Are you counting 66-71 as a wave?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 13:59
aurophile n>(n): - BB Fisher: I love your charts and I can't imagine more than fun than babbling away upon the Internet, but I am reminded that the Internet is as amenable to manipulation ( or even having the plug pulled ) as radio wave broadcast media or the telephone. As those great bastions of human freedom--Germany and China-- have proven, what's free is what they say is free.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 13:47
bb fisher a moment please>(a moment please): - savage:
it has been stated by john perry barlow, an early internet thinker and pioneer that on the internet everyhting is either local or global but nothing is national.
clearly the world is moving rapidly towards one world ( global money ) whilst at the same time towards 1000 city states or locales or nations or whatever you want to called. one world government is irrelevant once we all spend the same kind of money. indeed government is already more or irrelevant for many of us and a nuisance for many more.
i do not want to bring the discussion on to a religious plane as i have little interest in the organized variety. personally, it is just more politics better packaged so no refutation in this life can take place. be that as it may or may not the trends visible to all is an amazing resurgence of ethnic and racial and cultural affinities whilst all who have money to spend wanrt to spend wherever they damm well please in the most convienent manner.
new world order government once worried me until i understood the directions technology was propelling us all. one world money probably, but then isn't that what a gold standard is anyway?... but one world government... not likely anytime soon and if it should be erected it will likely have no more competence, authority or imaggination than does the UN now.
in the information age before BIG just ain't where it's at! - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 13:30
aurophile m>(m): - George Cole: Your 12:40 and Cap'n Bill's gold bottoms study tie in very nicely with BB Fisher's chart. The absolute ratio level of Dow/gold is at the 1976 level at the moment. The absolute gold price fell below the same Gann angle last year as it did in 1975 ( and needs to get above $380 to reverse ) . And in Kondratieff terms, as mentioned below, the ratio and prices in general are at the Kwave breakpoint of 1945-46. All of this ( and much more ) suggest some good times for gold going forward.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 13:20
aurophile l>(l): - BB Fisher: Thank you for the splendiferous dow/gold charts. My physical chart file is neary 50% BBF charts. If I didn't have them my house would be overflowing with books telling me what your charts say.
Those of old enough, alas, to remember the 1960's know full well that it was *A* top of some considerable significance in oh so many ways.
As you know from my Kondratieff work, I have insisted that 1942 was the post 1929 low ( as RN Elliott thought before his canonization and usurpation by his followers ) and that the early 1970's was the subsequent peak. Your charts show this in vivid detail. And when those doubters who are still looking for a crash because we ain't had one yet in this cycle next raise up their heads, i'm gonna bop 'em on the head with 100 copies of the 1971 to 1980 crash log on your charts.
So where are we now in the historical K wave cycle as evidenced by your charts? Just almost exactly on course at about 1944-46. We did the three waves down from the 1966-1972 top to 1980 ( as from 1929 to 1942 ) , and we've done the first leg up from 1980 ( as from 1942 ) . Now we get the first lttle inflation scare ( as from 1945-49 ) and stocks waggle and wiggle at a high level for a few years, and THEN the big push in stocks once more. No crash or deflation in view for about 25 years on your chart.
BBF: You make it sooooooooooooo easy. Thanks. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 13:03
EB FOXY international broke banker dude>(FOXY international broke banker dude): - Spreading lies, deceit, rumor to line your pockets...hmmmmmmmm.
I can only respond one way...
What an ASSHOLE!
Your KARMA is gonna take a big HIT one of these days and the Vatican won't even be there to catch your fall, and you will go from foxy to U.G.L.Y.
AWAY!
EB
i gotta go tee off... - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 12:57
EB George>(George): - thanks.
away
EB - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 12:55
jkldsj [q gdgssh a reek etioeqt>( gdgssh a reek etioeqt): - JIN what was the percentage increase in gold last week in Your national currency?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 12:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Philippine economist calls for competitive exchange rate ( read devaluation )
http://www.philstar.com/site/Preview/assets/cgi_bin/nph-general.cgi?i27_jul27&BUS1 - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 12:40
George Cole gold bottoms>(gold bottoms): - BRIDGE: If you read my Reuters post again, you will see that a quote of $325 and change is given for the latest price as of 6:00 A.M. Sunday morning New York time.
All Kitcoites should check out Captain Bill's study of gold bottoms. This is the best single thing I have seen on the net re: gold investing. It is MUST READING for serious gold players..
http://www.the-privateer.com/g-bottom/g-bottom.html - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 12:16
Donald @home>(@home): - PROGNOSTICATOR: I should have read your 10:42 before my last post. The numbers on the bottom are 2 digit dates. The first year is 1903, second year is 1904 shown only bu a 4, etc. through to 1997 ( not shown ) . Why do you feel that a truncated fifth wave is unlikely? Also, could the 1966 high be a supercycle top? That possibility has very serious implications does it not?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 12:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PROGNOSTICATOR: In each of the previous reversals the D/G Ratio dropped in favor of gold by a drop in the Dow and an increase in the price of gold ie: 1929 and 1966. Irrespective of Elliott Wave, do you see any fundamental reason to think that there is another route?
Returning to Elliott Wave which is currently forecasting a drop in both the Dow and in gold you could, theoretically, return to a ratio of 1 by a Dow drop to 100 and a gold price drop to $100. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 11:48
Miro Contradicting Inflation/Deflation Indicators>(Contradicting Inflation/Deflation Indicators): - Inflation/deflation discussion, where we can not agree which way it goes,
just supports a set of conflicting and contradicting main street indicators:
1- cost of durable goods ( and housing ) may be growing at low rate but
for the same price you get the half value and expected life ( mostly
due to the use of cheaper man made materials ) . I would say this is hidden
inflation!
2- While salary increases are kept at very low level, most people are
expected to work longer hours + benefits are usually cut more and more.
Deflation!
3- Stock market and price per share ( or P/E ration ) went up
significantly. - Inflation!
4- Bankruptcy rate and capability to repay loans is increasing -
Deflation!
5- Customer debts ( credit cards, loans, etc ) is increasing - This is
inflationary sign.
Very confusing - no clear trend, so more when ( I believe ) we are not
using the same baseline ( e.g. we don’t you include the life of the
durable goods in CPI - but when in 10 years you need to buy 2 items
instead of 1 this doubles your price. On the other hand this is what
keeps economy and stocks going - demand )
I think a lot of this is due to increased manipulation by Feds instead of
leting the market go through it natural course.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 11:34
Bridge EBN Quotes>(EBN Quotes): -
George Cole: Is there any way to determine if EBN Gold and Silver quotes are a mistake? - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 11:21
Mike Sheller @bob m>(@bob m): - There's an old spanish saying When they see the b#lls they know it's a boy. We have HAD the deflation. It began in 1980 with the Volcker Fed, and we are witnessing the final lag of low rates, and relativel;y stable prices resulting from the EARLY Greenspan tenure, and powerful global cost and labor changes. Since the recession of '91 ( proof that a cleansingdownturn cannot be tolerated by the American people or their representatives ) the increase of credit and money supply in this economy has been unprecedented. Much of this has clearly gone into the stock and bond markets, ballooning investments in paper assets. The pendulum of relative asset class values ( stuff vs paper ) is one of such monumental opposition, that the very weakness in gold for the past 17 years IS the legend of the RELATIVE deflation that has taken place. Gold went down from 1980 to 1982. Since then it has been establishing a massive continuation pattern that may likely result in a fresh upwave that will be as stunning to current market participants as the rise from Dow 1000 to 8000 has been. I repeat again that the ONLY and PROPER definition of inflation is an increase in the stock of paper currency and commodity money proxies over the value of the commodity itself. In this case, now that specie - gold and silver - are no longer backing any government issued paper instrument ( along with fictional reserve banking ) even a $1 increase in the money supply by government is inflation. Nevertheless, this is as good as it gets. The huge increase in money stock since the last recession, and the increasing momentum of money creation as a percentagte of that money stock annually, will insure this all emerging in the future, into a totally different asset class than it has at present. What will be extinguished by the collapse is not so important for speculators who are looking for something to be long, as WHERE the NEW money and credit that government turns out to combat the collapse goes. This new money enters the economy through government's favored institutions and entities. Which will that be? Will it rush back into stocks? Bonds? or will it be invested by government's panicked favorite recipients into an asset that has not shocked and disillusioned them as a turning stockmarket tide inevitably will.
No, I think it is not a case of deflation ahead of us as much as THIS is as good as the deflation gets. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 11:12
Savage >(): - bb fisher: re your 10:37....Transnational... as in One World Government? I doubt that it will be weak. It is written...
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 11:02
WW @New England>(@New England): - I forgot ANOTHER SIGN OF TROUBLE COMING AND THEY KNOW IT!! They are now talking about LOOSENING the bankruptcy laws. A way to keep money in circulation GO BR and then get your new gold card and start spending again. The new plan will exempt more assets from the reach of creditors. Good business for me but there has to be a reason for this sudden turnabout. IE they know how bad the economy really is except for the few who are rich or have tech like skills. Use the BR laws to keep the credit/spending game going. If they tightened the laws then people will spend less ie borrow less. However, if law is loosened will institutions remain profligate in their lending practices
HMMM
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:57
prognosticator @Elliottwaves>(@Elliottwaves): - Additional thoughts on the bbfisher gold/dow ratio charts.
If the ratio stalls and falls soon, as many here expect, it will have completed a textbook example of an expanding tops formation. This suggests a major decline in the ratio over the next several months ( years? ) .
I am unaware of a method to make a projection of the decline in the ratio from this formation. Do any of you know of such a method? - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:57
Mike Sheller Regards to Mickey>(Regards to Mickey): - PLUTO: re you're 01:34 - Thanks for paying attention to my prediction, even if I was wrong. The Saturn conjunction with NYSE Moon was sure to bring a very significant influence to silver, of that I had absolutely no doubt. I went with the historical preponderance of evidence ( the odds ) on this one. I picked the wrong scenario it seems. However, the significant weakness in July, as opposed to significant strength, is not so much a case of so much for the stars. It's more a case of so much for Sheller as an astrologer. The stars came through. I didn't. On the other hand, be fair. What did you think of my call on Saudi Arabia, months in advance, and its announcement just a few days after my target date that it was making an very unusual, and disturbing alliance with Iran regarding oil prices? Keep on keeping score...It's very dangerous presuming on God, so I need all the support AND criticism I can get.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:51
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - To me the loudest signal just screaming out that deflation is here is the price of gold over the last several years, decline, decline,decline. If there was going to be big inflation on the horizon, gold just as sure as the sun rises in the east would be going up. Dont buy the central bank selling of gold as the reason for its decline, gold is not lying, deflation is in the cards. Steve Puetz, your right on.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:47
WW @NE>(@NE): - I believe the events that will lead to the gold bull and financial bear are presently in development but are being suppressed and only mentioned in a brief and cursory manner. All the problems with the 3rd world currencies are the result of the problems related to the real instability in those countries. All over the world the so called economic efficiency programs are causing higher consumer debt and sapping the purchasing power of the working people while financials boom to the benefit of the small rich minority in these 3rd world countries. Dollar backing of So Am debt has created a false financial tranquility in Latin America which is not really justified by the fundamentals. All this is starting to unravel and other countries or big money will diversify into gold as they are overloaded with dollars. I believe Rubin and others know this is occuring and that is their and the WAll St press reason for downing gold.
However, if the crisis is gathering steam their rantings about gold will only support gold if it doesnt budge on their no inflation CB sales talk. Fact is if anything CBs are over exposed to the dollar and will need to diversify into gold China/Japan and Russia are leading examples
I predicted below 320 last week and we made it to 322. I will go out on a limb and say we will touch 340 this week.
Another reason to wonder if trouble isnt around the corner was a story about the possibility of the US being blackmailed by other countries who hold our debt. Negotiators admitted the foreign debt leverage presented a problem in trade deals. This was on CNN and is the type of story you would never think you would hear. Could something be brewing here and they are setting the stage to blame a foreign country when things get out of control. Thoghts on this one anyone ie storys like the CNN story are mentioned to the public to set the stage for the new culprit of the coming problems.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:46
bw Inflation vs Deflation:>(Inflation vs Deflation:): - Got to jump into this excellent discussion. Very good points have been made by both sides. In my opinion, what makes this such a devilish subject ( besides predicting the future ) is that we currently have no money in circulation. I smile everytime I hear the expression money supply. This is the biggest lie of all. Debt supply would be much more correct. Inflation/deflation is currently part of the mechanics of keeping the game going, the main event ( which in my opinion insures an eventual economic depression unrivialed in the history of this country ) has been the replacement of money ( gold and silver ) with debt. When the game ends, ALL debt ( including the money supply ) will become worthless. The people will once again return to gold and silver. If our beloved gov ( the sole creator, by intension, of our current mess ) does not then we the people will have a very large problem.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:43
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Puetz: My home loan is secured by my home, not by stocks. My home is going up in value each year. Houston is booming. My area of expertise is in technology and jobs are going crying here for lack of applicants. This anecdotal evidence is highly inflationary. I think we need to define crash, then try to understand the impact of a crash on local economies. I have been in the work force for only 20 years and there has only been one crash ( in 1987 ) and that event was so short-lived that the general economy, unemployment, etc. was largely unaffected. Perhaps I represent the majority of boomers who think a 20% correction will be a great buy the dip opportunity and that anything greater than a 20% downturn will be over in 6 months, so what's the big deal? I am personally more pessimistic and therefore own gold and silver. But I will gladly test your thinking as it helps sharpen my own.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:42
prognosticator @Elliottwaves>(@Elliottwaves): - bbfisher charts These are wonderful pieces of work. Thank you. Looking at them from an Elliott Wave prospective is very interesting. We seem to be in the late stages of a multi-year fifth wave. I am confused by the numbers across the bottom of the chart, but assume that they relate to time. I do not think that the congestion at the 10.00 area near the right hand portion of the chart is the second correction of the fifth ( and final wave ) , but think that the upcoming dive in the stock market and the upcoming increase in the price of gold will be the second correction.
To complete a fifth wave, the ratio does not need to reach the trend line drawn off of the two preceeding tops. It need only to exceed the previous high of 28.61. A special case can occur, called a truncated fifth wave, where the fifth wave does not exceed the previous top. We may be in this situation now, but I consider this doubtful.
May we have comments from more experienced Elliott Wavers? - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:41
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy ( Section - III)>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy ( Section - III)): - Professor Miller of New York University - describes the dire economic and financial consequences subsequent to Japan’s own excessive and IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE: “The Bubble Bursts: 1990-91”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/cscb003.html
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:37
bb fisher seems obvious>(seems obvious): - since the widespread use of paper money, then with wire transfer, then onto credit cards widely issued with limits most arbitrarily assigend by issuers and many credits with no limits the whole thrust of credit creation has been moving steadily OUT of government hands into individual and corporate.
in the 60's the euro dollar market came into being to:
avoid taxation on bonds and raise large sums for coporations who did not want to raise the sum in their home country. it is now and has always been largely unregulated and unregulatable. from my perspective in financial matters anyway, governments have NEVER been weaker than they are today and the trend is accelrating against them. the transnational corporation and the transnational individual is where the thrust of both technology and money is headed.
to many on this forum are fighting the last war. to many on this forum have actually come to believe unconsciously the rant from the media and from governments. oh, you all speak like your hip to what is happening yet most perspectives continue to ascribe vastly more power to governments than they actually possess.
the only things that governments can still plunder and make miseralbe are property and wealth artifacts of the industrial age. all wealth is becoming digital and transnational which no government or group of governments will be able to easily shakedown.
i am surprised by some of the paranoia here. reread the wizard of oz. central governments are all increasingly smoke and noise - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:34
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Zeke: I went on vacation to Cape Hatteras, NC two weeks ago. Last week, I was catching up on work and writing a new letter ( which I mailed Friday ) . This week I should have some free time to chat and lurk on Kitco.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:28
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Speed: You are correct that inflation is a monetary event. The supply of credit and currency has been increasing virtually non-stop for 50 years. Of these two, the greatest expansion ( by far ) has been in credit. However, all credit expansions have a limit. In settling the inflation/deflation debate, the important question is have all ( or most sectors maxxed-out on their credit limits?
The rising bankruptcy rate suggests that the average US consumer has. The only significant credit expansion now taking place is in 2 areas: 1 ) Home loans and refinancings, and 2 ) financial market speculation.
When the stock market enters a bear market, the collateral securing home loans and stock loans will become extremely suspect. Then, those sectors will tranform into a chain-reaction deflation -- falling values forcing liquidation thus forcing more falling values.
The question is not: Where have we been? But, Where are we going? Current evidence in bankruptcies and Producer Prices suggests deflation is growing in strength. All that is needed to make the deflationary scenario air-tight is a stock market crash. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:17
WDL @world affairs>(@world affairs): - Good morning from just outside Beantown. Picked up my Sunday Globe.
Tucked away in the lower right-hand corner of newspaper an article
titled: Anxious Taiwan watches China.
One factor that would lift gold prices would be belligerency or
threat thereof. Globe reporter Indira A.R. Lakshmanan states at the beginning of her article: The first step was the 'return to the motherland' of prodigal son Hong Kong. In two years. Macau will revert from Portuguese to mainland rule. And soon
thereafter, Taiwan will come home, too, so all the members of Greater
China's extended family will be happily reunited --with Bejing sitting
triumphantly at the head of the table.
That is Bejing's dream, and Taipei's nightmare.
My question: Are the storm clouds begin to lower over Taiwan---
with what consequences?
Later in the article, Ms. Lakshmanan states, For its part, the far more powerful People's Republic not only insists it is the only rightful Chinese entity, but has vowed to use force if Taiwan declares independence.
Bejing wrested the United Nations seat for China away from Taiwan in 1971, and has barred the island from joining ever since. Last week, China denounced Taiwan's latest petition drive to reenter the United Nations, and is actively pressuring the last 30 countries that recognize Taiwan to sever relations.
As a student of history, are these unfolding events similar to Saddam Hussein's attempt to wrest away Iraq's lost province, Kuwait?
Or Hitler's call for 'lebensraum' before taking over Austria, the Sudetenland, and the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Or France's desire to regain the lost provinces of Alsace and Lorraine after their loss in the Franco-Prussian War.
Or Italy's cry of 'Italia Irredenta' ( unredeemed Italy ) to regain the
provinces of Trieste of Trentino from Austria.
Just some food for thought on a Sunday morning.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:14
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Donald: Yes, and you can have the last word. I am not trying to argue in a negative sense, just test my thinking against the articulate and erudite scholars that frequently post here. I learn here and use what I learn. I credit several folks here with helping me make better investment decisions. Don't tell Bart, but I would pay just to lurk here. I am making some speculative investments, betting that we see inflation first.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 10:10
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Eldorado: Great post at 3:28!! You hit the nail on the head when you said we need to rid ourselves of our debt-based monetary system.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:59
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Show me any civilzation in history that has not eventually had its inflation end in deflation. Inflation can stretch out for a long time, but it is a terminal condition. Are we only arguing what stage of this terminal disease we are in now?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:53
Skylark @>(@): - bb Fisher: Thank you for the charts and commentary. It is indeed helpful and appreciated.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:48
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Zeke: The question becomes: when? We have had 40 years of inflation and the end is not in sight. All of society's mechanisms for coping with economic problems are built with inflationary assumptions. When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem will be made to look like a nail. Deflation hurts debtors and the biggest debtor is the government. They are a huge player in this game and will not cheerfully suffer the consequences of deflation. I agree that government is not a god, but they have kept the inflation game going for one entire generation. Your example describes wild hyperinflation. That scenario has a very small probability of playing out. The more likely scenarios involve increasing government intervention in various markets and/or increasing payouts via the entitlement safety net. These interventions and payouts will be inflationary and will reverse the current trend towards smaller deficits. An inflation rate of 8% would be the death of this bull in stocks and well within the historical parameters of this quarter century.
Two articles from the Houston Chronicle make the inflationary case:
1. Home resales healthiest in years - quick deals, rising prices and high demand have realty agents excited.
2. Tech wars - taking advantage of big demand for tech-savvy workers.
Home prices are going up and so are wages in my corner of this game. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:45
Frank wqw>(wqw): - Right Jerry.
So are all the laws on books: environmental, tort,etc. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:40
Jerry 1>(1): - Minimum wage laws are just another way to force more currency into inflationary circulation.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:34
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com): - Hey, Steve Puetz is back! Where have you been?
It seems that you have been gone for 2 weeks. Im with you re: deflation. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:29
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - There is one major problem with a hyperinflation economy that the governments in power fear more than anything else on the planet short of nuclear halocaust. If you look at the history of hyperinflated currencies one fact stands out in so many cases,an overthrow of the existing government as the angry mobs become disenchanted with the government that led them down that path. and in many cases the ruling party that takes over is a dictatorship, or some form of military rule. A deflation economy is a distinct plus for the existing government as it is an easier sell to the people, to tell them times are tough and we must all pull together for the good of us all, etc. If the powers that be are intent on setting up some form of global government, the deflation road, with them coming to the rescue of the masses, will be a much easier path to their intended goal.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:22
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com): - Gentlemen,
CBs and governments are not gods!!!!
Just as day follows night, deflation follows inflation!!! How high can they inflate? How long? Glass of water for $1,000, or $1,000,000 or even more? Eventually it is beyond governments control and decrease in asset values must occur!!
1. What goes up MUST come down.
2. There is nothing new under the sun.
Both physics and economics teach us that deflation is inevitable. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - I hope everyone has found the two charts posted by bb fisher at 5:15 AM. Can we get more comments on the implications?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:05
nomercy Au>(Au): - Present gold price 325.90 ( I got this info. from my broker's telephone service, don't know which part of the world )
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:05
George Cole in Florida>(in Florida): -
Demand for gold still the key to price ( Business Day, Jhb. )
Gold producers should look at physical demand rather than be panicked into anticipating an avalanche of central bank sales, argues Kelvin Williams of
Anglogold. - After the unhappy performance of the gold price in recent weeks and the negative debate in the media about central bank sales of gold
reserves, one might be forgiven for losing perspective about our market. However, the price of the metal has steadied, although unfortunately at the lower
extreme of the long-term range of $325/oz to $390. This pause provides us with an opportunity to look more realistically at the influential forces in the
gold market today and what those particular elements are likely to mean. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:04
bb fisher buckle up!!!>(buckle up!!!): - as i have remarked in private conversation of late and for many months now, those of you short the s&p averages had better cover forthwith. starting almost immdediately and continuing into september look for a spectacular dow jones 30 rally to take the average to 8700-9200 with the next 6-8 weeks.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 09:03
Donald @Home>(@Home): - From Argentina Sunday Morning Paper. Some thoughts on the Tequila Effect, devaluation, inflation and convertability. ( in Spanish )
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/97/07/27/e01.htm - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 08:52
George Cole gold price>(gold price): - More evidence that the big drop on EBN is an error:
Sunday July 27 6:36 AM EDT
Dubai gold traders hope for price stability
DUBAI, July 27 ( Reuter ) - Signs that volatile gold prices have steadied and found a new trading range encouraged Dubai
gold traders on Sunday to expect increased Indian subcontinent bullion demand in August.
``If the price stability continues then we could see demand boosted,'' said one Dubai-based trader.
But key Indian import demand remained largely blunted because of the monsoons and market nerves over the possibility of
more gold reserve selling by central banks.
Major festival and wedding demand from India is not expected to be felt in Dubai -- the main feeder market into India --
until late next month at the earliest when the moonson ebbs and farmers reap their cash harvests.
``Most Indian importers are holding off wanting to confirm the direction in the market, to see if it has reached a bottom,''
said one trader.
Bombay-based traders have reported limited arrivals into the world's largest gold consuming country while premiums on
bullion import licences have held steady.
Dubai's benchmark TT bar --3.746 ounces of 24 carat gold -- was quoted on Sunday at 4,505 UAE dirhams ( $1,227 ) , down
from 4,547 dirhams on July 20 but above a month-low of 4,390.
International spot gold was last quoted on Saturday at $325.45-325.95 an ounce, verus a week-on-week of $328.60-$329.10
and $321.20-321.70 on July 13.
The London fix on Friday was $324.10 an ounce.
Dubai's retail trade has received a filip this month after weaker bullion prices attracted buying from Indian-subcontinent
expatriates -- mainly returning home for holidays -- and Gulf nationals traveling to the emirate.
``Imports ( into Dubai ) have recovered this month...Retail demand was healthy,'' said one trader.
Approximately 80 percent of all gold imported into Dubai is re-exported through official channels and also by individuals
travelling to the Indian-subcontinent.
Imports into the emirate reached 46.13 tonnes in June. Traders estimated that July imports would increase to around 50-52
tonnes. Imports in July 1996 were 29.8 tonnes.
More news for related categories: international.
Help
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 08:47
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Inflation is defined as an increase in the money or credit supply that is greater than the increase in the supply of real goods and services . Inflation can happen by 1. increasing credit 2. increasing the money supply. We have had both 1 and 2 for many years in the western economies. The average consumer has an intuitive awareness of inflation and both tolerates it and builds expectations based on it. Wage expectations are based on cost of living adjustments, entitlements are increased based on the COLA. Our system is built to handle inflation. There are no provisions made for deflation. Can you imagine the howls if the government posted a negative CPI and adjusted the entitlements downward? Deflation is politically improbable. Serious economic problems will be met with increased social spending with the necessary increase in deficits and that is inflationary. The money will be given to individuals by Congress ( not the Fed ) via checks, debit cards, debt forgiveness ( bankruptcies ) , food stamps, housing vouchers, and any other creative method they can think of. It is not pushing on a string as some have said. All western governments have created and tested massive mechanisms for getting newly minted credit and cash into the hands of their citizens. The U.S. alone is spending hundreds of billions per year in transfers to non-producers. To the extent that these transfers are financed by the creation of new money, they are inflationary. Now the U.S. treasury is monetizing the debt. On at least two occasions this year they have purchased bonds while running an annual deficit. This is money from thin air. Inflation is the name of the game. The acid test is your own cost of living. Is it going up or down? Include stock prices ( perceived value of companies ) in your cost of living and answer the question again. If the stock market melts down and the government pumps money into the market in a rescue attempt, this too will be inflationary. The deflation argument faces the daunting obstacle of socialist government.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 08:43
George Cole $250>($250): - John Disney; Thanks for the info re: the upward potential of the SA gold shares!
Why might powerful western financial interest want to drive gold down to $250? To support the dollar. To keep the global stock boom going awhile longer. To convince the masses inflation is dead and buried. To help sell Treasuty bonds at low interest rates. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:51
George Cole EBN>(EBN): - The EBN site has gold down $7,50, but this probably is an error. The Asian markets do not open until Sunday night, New York time.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:40
TED @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald...fog bank is here too....but it's slowly lifting...Am looking forward to Asian markets tonight!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:23
Mary Rose Down Under>(Down Under): - To Large International Broker /Banker.....thank-you for the enlightening insight into your psyche , I appreciate it.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:18
Referee @1st warning>(@1st warning): - Warning to the CBs: Anymore ear biting and your disqualified. The public wants to see a fare fight and the best man win.
Golden Gloves: I always root for the underdog! - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: What is this, you have sent down your Fog Bank in retaliation for my comments of yesterday?. That is YOUR Fog Bank. Please remove it at once.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:12
Golden Goves @Blood in the Ring>(@Blood in the Ring): - Ref: CB just bit my ear clean off. It's bleeding profusely. You think it fears me and doesn't have the means to fight fare?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:09
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good mornin ALL.....The sun is tryin to break out....just like Gold!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 07:04
Referee @inflation not deflation>(@inflation not deflation): - I'm sorry deflationists, but deflation is no longer allowed for the forseeable future. You ask, since when is the future forseeable? Since the Great Depression of the 30's. The Great Depression was an all important event that is still today branded into our nation's psyche.
Hyper-inflation on the other hand is not against the rules. It will be easy to blame a number of scapoegoats for the mismanagement of our nation's financial resources. It will be a sickening event to witness the plethora of government and financial leaders pointing the finger to the culprits of the misdeeds. It will be unmatched hypocracy to watch the very ones responsible blaming eachother. It will be sort of like thousands of Jerry Falwells taking the high ground accusing their colleagues of the very crimes they've committed.
Anyone who doesn't see it coming, inflation that is, be forwarned now that it is the inevitable consequence of a democractic society that has lost control and faith in their government.
Although obvious to many now, in 3 years or less, a great wave of hyper-inflation will sweep across the entire world. Governments will be forced to hyper-inflate their currencies to pay off their debts. Hard assets will be king once again ( raw land with water, farm equipment, commodities, gold, gold and more gold.
People will wonder why anyone could have been so foolish as to put their faith in a bunch of corrupt politicians at a time of decaying government leadership and moral values to be trusted to properly manage our nation's financial resources.
Gold has fallen to an absurd level and it's possible it may fall further yet. ( I don't think it will IMHO. ) But if you're planning to hold it for several years, you can't go wrong. It will once again fall into favor in a big way. I for one would not be surprised to see gold valued at thousands of dollers per ounce.
There is enormous upside potential compared to the downside for gold. Governments talk of selling their gold at market bottems, i.e. concern among government and financial leaders that currencies are weak and debts are unsustainable.
Buy and accumulaute gold! - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 06:51
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BB FISHER: You sure have a way with charts! That is a beautiful piece of work. I have printed it out, pasted it together and been sitting here trying to figure out what it says about the future. It shows that 1987 didn't amount to a row of beans. Although it shows stocks are in dangerous territory the implication is that they can go higher, much to my chagrin. It also clearly says that gold can be accumulated safely, don't you think? Take the entire chart, hold it upside down, and look at it reflected in a mirror. Focus on 1980 and observe the plunge in the gold ratio from the point of view of the gold component to today. It is just spectacular. Nothing goes straight down forever. If you think about the mindset of investors, at the high points and low points, the fear and greed jumps right out at you. Perhaps the most dramatic conclusion is that 1966 was the high point of this century. All the commentary about the Dow reaching new highs now is just rubbish. The high in terms of real money was 1966. You have to look at the world through the eyes of gold. Only gold tells you the truth. CPI adjustments are garbage.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 06:30
I'm a Large International Broker/Banker US/German mach niche>(US/German mach niche): -
My profits are made by selling International Stocks, International Bonds and as a Banker, I exchange the various currencies all on a commission/fee basis.
I also deal in currency derivatives, where large corporations and big players hedge their international earnings and/or other investments. Occasionally they make outright speculations.
My good advice increases their profit considerably. It is to my best interest to utilize my research departments to occasionally tilt things in the favor of my clientel. As my profits also increase as well my foxy reputation.
Gold has been so sculptured and is seen as an inflation indicator, while this is to a reasonable degree true, another very troubling situation has developed. There is a very large deficit between newly mined gold and gold consumed in fabrication.
Such a deficit in any other product would make the price of that product increase considerably. Because gold is so widely used as a inflation indicator, I must use every means available to drive its price much below its true value.
I spread rumor to the mass media who willingly accept it. It can be anything, I may make it look love child of mass murderers, or take perfectly reputable folk and associate them with such things - even the Vatican. I will slander mining companies of polluting the earth. My analyist will be instructed to keep it from rising so that my profits will continue. Many Governments accept my misinformation, as we are birds of a feather.
To remain profitable the semblance of healthy or to be healthy economies markets is very important - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 06:26
ROBH rgherron@onenet.com.au>(rgherron@onenet.com.au): - Thanks Donald I imagine if it had taken a dive in Asia there would be some comment to that effect in this forum
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 06:25
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Point of view from Borneo on currency problems.
http://web3.asia1.com.sg/borneo/bbonline/sat/jul26h1.htm - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 06:06
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ROBH: Found no gold prices so far. Maylasia describes Shanghai Bankers meeting as Failure.
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/27stoc.html - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 05:22
RobH rgherron@onenet.com.au>(rgherron@onenet.com.au): - Could someone please post what the current gold price is? One site is suggesting it is $318 . Could this be true due to a fall in asia on Sat or is $325.80 about right
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 05:15
bb fisher part 2>(part 2): - chart 2
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 05:14
bb fisher more numbers>(more numbers): - to all:
here is the data in 2 charts of the dow to gold since 1903. the graphs are semilog and directly comparable.
i urge you to print them out, detach either the right hand data ratio numbers on chart 1 or the left hand data numbers on chart 2 and attach them together. they are calibrated so the data will fit seamlessly together.
then you can view more comfortably the 20th century ratio in entirety.
the trendlines added are for my own curiosity and are in no way intended to make any sort of point either way.
in the way of commentary the only times 1928-29, ( 1954-1966 rising ) , ( 1966-1972 dropping ) , 1994-? that the gold to dow 30 ratio exceeded 10 x the price of gold occurred in raging bull markets. the sum total of years in the 20th century when this occurred is 23 years out 97 thus far.
sorry about the years on the bottom line being so compressed but my software can't make them any more readable with so much data on one chart.
chart 1
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 05:06
John Smith U.S.Citizen>(U.S.Citizen): - ( Change of handle...see if it makes any difference ) George Cole said ..powerful financial interests in the west want to push gold down to $250.. Can someone PLEASE explain why...and this is not a trick question...nor does it have anything to do with astrology?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 04:34
Jack The here and now>(The here and now): -
Sure the possibilities may be depression or hyper-inflation, or the lesser evils deflation/inflation.
Today; the question is MANIPULATION of the precious metals markets.
By creating visions of sugar plums; ( the new era bullcrap designed to send the masses into stocks, bonds and supposedly strong currencies ) the public had better be very careful.
Better to be in some cash, the PM's and the PM producers with cash, good production profiles and minimal debt, both current and long term. If the PM stocks have any debt at all, their production profiles better be damn good. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 04:04
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - The Inflation/Deflation discussion is interesting. I agree that gold will, in the end, benefit regardless of which we get. We may get both in due course. How the govt plays the scenario will be a factor, how much remains to be seen. As I have enjoyed the humor here I will contribute the latest one I have heard: What's the difference between a woman and a computer? A computer will accept a 3 1/2 floppy. ( ah yes.... )
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 03:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Millhouse -- They may print all they want, but unless the Feds want to spend most of it into circulation, given that most people are/will be tapped out of most/all of their credit/borrowing power, it just isn't going to get into circulation! At least not the ammounts required to keep a 'stabilized' economy going. Let the Fed print. They'll just be pushing on the proverbial string.
We'll continue to see the Fed not raise rates. They'll lower them when they move them. They have to JUST to try to maintain borowing/keeping currency in circulation. At the same time we are now beginning to see the other governments back off from new purchases of our paper. That does put more pressure on the FED to raise rates. But unless they want to see a market crash, and worse begin, they cannot, IMHO. The bottom line is that if they are REEEEEAL careful, they might be able to extend this 'mess' out for awhile, assuming that 'events' elsewhere do not get totally out of hand.
One 'good' thing about these other little messes raging about is that they temporarily create a bit more interest in our paper markets. But even that goes only so far. 'Things' will have to continually degrade around the globe for continuance of that interest, and in greater degrees. This all may help prop the dollar up, but it does not help peoples credit reports and continuing borowing power. The wage increases that we are now beginning to see are necessary as they help alleviate some of the loan repayment problems and liquidity. Thus allowing people to perhaps make some new loans and borrow some new and necessary money into circulation. Will it be, and continue to be, enough? Short term, perhaps. But unless rates continue to fall, nothing will be enough. The only ultimate way out of the whole mess is to rid ourselves of a debt based economy ( where ALL money is loaned into circulation with interest ) . All else is ultimately doomed to pain and total failure.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 03:37
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for George Cole/SSJ
I believe 60 % is a minumum on a gold run to 375.
Take the gold index ratio in $ ( jse-gold,$ divided by
the price of gold ) - It is now about .65. A regression
line from 1986 intersects present time at 0.9 ( on the
downtrend regression line ) . ) . Taking ( 375/325 ) * ( .9/.65 )
makes 1.6 for me - ie 60 % gain on a return to regression
line. I believe a ratio of 1.1 would be more likely in
that situation which gives ( 1.6 ) * ( 1.1/.9 ) = 1.95.
This type of gain would apply to stocks like beatrix
fregold, western deep. Larger gains with more risk
could be made in dbn-deep/buffels/blyvoor or maybe
St Helena/oryx.
_ RE SSJ question - believe western deep best overall
investment considering risk/reward. Dbn my favorite at
this price if you have stomach for high risk _ Market
treating DD as if it were the original high cost/big
reserve DD. It is ignoring fact that DD is now 75 per
cent Blyvoor and Buffels. DD can be mothballed for
its reserves and shut down and company run on profits
from Blyvy ( marginal ) and buffels in meantime ( we'll
see results soon - DD will be awfull )
Re SSJ question on surface material at WD - sure -
lower grade ore will be run off sometimes. When the gold
price is higher. WD seems to want to maintain steady
dividends/earnings and fund capex smoothely. I would
call this operational fat .
Lets see if Barrick ( which seems unconcerned with
dividends generally ) can do this well.
I also tend to like St Helena based latest results and
their tie in with Oryx. Also WD as above and DD.
Market perception Implats is that they have more
longish term supply commitments than Rusplat group and
higher PGM prices wont reflect in revenue for 6 months
or so. Also they have a long standing dispute court
case with a tribe ( mafoking ) contesting PGM rights.
Dont get too excited - this dispute has gone on
for as long as I can remember. Stock is very cheap.
Northam however is reported to be in profit at these
pgm prices and looks like grand play. I like all these
RSA pgm plays - ( Lebowa Rusplat pp-rust ) , northam, and
Impala.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 03:28
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Millhouse -- They may print all they want, but unless the Feds want to spend most of it into circulation, given that most people are/will be tapped out of most/all of their credit/borrowing power, it just isn't going to get into circulation! At least not the ammounts required to keep a 'stabilized' economy going. Let the Fed print. They'll just be pushing on the proverbial string.
We'll continue to see the Fed not raise rates. They'll lower them when they move them. They have to JUST to try to maintain borowing/keeping currency in circulation. At the same time we are now beginning to see the other governments back off from new purchases of our paper. That does put more pressure on the FED to raise rates. But unless they want to see a market crash, and worse begin, they cannot, IMHO. The bottom line is that if they are REEEEEAL careful, they might be able to extend this 'mess' out for awhile, assuming that 'events' elsewhere do not get totally out of hand.
One 'good' thing about these other little messes raging about is that they temporarily create a bit more interest in our paper markets. But even that goes only so far. 'Things' will have to continually degrade around the globe for continuance of that interest, and in greater degrees. This all may help prop the dollar up, but it does not help peoples credit reports and continuing borowing power. The wage increases that we are now beginning to see are necessary as they help alleviate some of the loan repayment problems and liquidity. Thus allowing people to perhaps make some new loans and borrow some new and necessary money into circulation. Will it be, and continue to be, enough? Short term, perhaps. But unless rates continue to fall, nothing will be enough. The only ultimate way out of the whole mess is to rid ourselves of a debt based economy ( where ALL money is loaned into circulation with interest ) . All else is ultimately doomed to pain and total failure.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 03:11
KJB learner>(learner): - First of all, thanks Bart! It's great to once again see the free flow of ideas rather than insults.
Secondly, could someone explain how there can be significant inflation unless the demand for goods outstips the supply? Since the early 80's we have seen the SUPPLY of goods increase dramatically due to greater productivity and the flood of foreign goods pouring into the country. The DEMAND for goods, on the other hand, has slowed as wages have stagnated and baby boomers have become more concerned with saving for their retirement.
It would seem, therefore, one of two things must occur before inflation will become a real concern:
1. ) The people will have to command higher wages and begin spending more money.
2. ) A shortage must occur in the supply of goods.
Given the low unemployment rate and the large corporate profits, it's just a matter of time until labor demands higher wages. And according to Murphy's law the next earth shaking event to disrupt supply is just around the corner. - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 02:17
Milhouse @Deflation>(@Deflation): -
To : Donald, CMAX, Aurophile
Just finished reading your excellent discussion regarding deflation/inflation. Although many of the arguments put forward by the deflationists are logical, the key point is that there is no limit to the amount of money which could be created within today's monetary system. No regulatory changes or presidential decrees are necessary. Donald posed the question - if the government issued bonds, who will by the bonds ? The answer is that the bonds would be purchased by the monetary agents ( banks + Fed ) with newly created dollars. If they desired to do so, the US govt could inject 1 trillion dollars into the economy tomorrow through the sale of bonds to the monetary agents.
At moment the govt and the Fed are playing a minor role in the expansion of the monetary base as most new money is arising from the monetisation of private debt by the banks. However, at the first sign of a slow down in the supply of new money as a result of debt defaults or other deflationary forces, the Fed will take matters into its own hands. Failure to do so would lead to mass discontent as Aurophile has opined and consequently a failure to maintain political power.
The more signs of deflation which become evident over the next few months, the greater the resultant inflation will be as the monetary authorities over-react.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 01:34
Pluto @beam me up scotty>(@beam me up scotty): - SCOTTY: If I remember correctly, our resident kitco astrologer, Mr. Sheller had predicted several months ago that silver would hit a major high by this time in July. turned out, probably, to be a low. So much for the stars, hey?
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 01:09
Mary-Rose Down Under>(Down Under): - Can some-one please explain why strong vested interests want to push gold to $250 / oz? It seems to be causing a lot of damage the way it is now, without it going lower.
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 00:08
TED @bedtimeforbonzo>(@bedtimeforbonzo): - Moon is pretty on the calm ocean....Good night ALL!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 00:08
Scotty Late night humor>(Late night humor): - OK, a little midnight humor.......
A ventriloquist cowboy walked into town and sees a rancher sitting on his
porch with his dog:
Cowboy: Hey, cool dog. Mind if I speak to him?
Rancher: This dog don't talk!
Cowboy: Hey dog, how's it going?
Dog: Doin alright
Rancher: ( Extreme look of shock )
Cowboy: Is this your owner? ( pointing at rancher )
Dog: Yep.
Cowboy: How's he treat you?
Dog: Real good. He walks me twice a day, feeds me great food, and
takes me to the lake once a week to play.
Rancher: ( Look of disbelief )
Cowboy: Mind if I talk to your horse?
Rancher: Horses don't talk!
Cowboy: Hey horse, how's it goin?
Horse: Cool.
Rancher: ( an even wilder look of shock )
Cowboy: Is this your owner? ( pointing at rancher )
Horse: Yep.
Cowboy: How's he treat you?
Horse: Pretty good, thanks for asking. He rides me regularly,
brushes me down often, and keeps me in the barn to protect
me from the elements.
Rancher: ( total look of amazement )
Cowboy: Mind if I talk to your SHEEP?
Rancher: ( stuttering, and hardly able to talk ) ......
Th-Th-Them sheep ain't nothin but liars!!!
- Date: Sun Jul 27 1997 00:00
aurophile l>(l): - The loans will all be repaid in due course with mini-dollars. TTFN all
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 23:28
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - DEFLATION: I was not impressed with the deflation article in Barron's today. Most people continue to ignore the real reason to expect deflation -- the inability of borrowers to repay loans. The rising bankruptcy rate is all of the evidence anyone needs to confidently predict deflation.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 23:20
waiting for the sun>(for the sun): - Byron:
Hello from Ukiah!! I do a lot of cycling - mostly road bike. I like to see the countryside rolling by.
73 - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 23:19
George Cole $250 on hold>($250 on hold): - EB:
I said and still say that powerful financial interests in the west want to push gold down to the $250 area and will continue to do all they can towards this end.
But the fact that gold refuses to buckle despite these well-financed efforts to take it much lower, almost universal bearishness in the financial community, a strong dollar, and a still booming stock market shows that powerful financial interests are coming in on the bull side of the equation as Glenn indicated in his last post.. That in itself marks a radical shift in a market the bears have dominated completely for the past 18 months.
I am not predicting an explosive upside move in gold near-term, although such an outcome is possible given the huge short position I am saying the tide is shifting and a new bull is likely to COMMENCE soon. Unless the shorts panic more easily than I expect, it may be slow going for a while with little in the way of upside fireworks until perhaps early 1998. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 22:54
Scotty Donald's Deflation>(Donald's Deflation): - Donald..........I'm on your deflation bandwagon. Maybe not a 94db cheering supporter, but I agree with many of your principles. Regarding Thailand and the rest - I think those dikes are starting to leak. And for now, there are enough fingers to put in the dike. However, I recall the hysteria a few years ago when the Thailand ( et al ) mutual funds starting gearing up - and then Thailand enjoyed a 25% per year growth spurt for a few years. Their day of reckoning is at hand. What is interesting is the vast American/Canadian/European interest in the Pacific Rim. You can bet that Joe Average is going to start pulling his money out of there. Perhaps they already have and have sunk it into the Dow. That might explain the rise past 7500.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 22:52
Scotty @Federal Reserve>(@Federal Reserve): - Schippi, you wrote:
[[1 ) The Federal Reserve act ( 1913 ) was unconstitutional.
2 ) The Federal reserve is not federal. ( But private )
3 ) the Federal reserve is not a reserve.]]
I can't comment on #1 as I don't believe anyone has taken that argument to the Supreme Court. But I believe you are correct about #2 and #3. An interesting ( and scary ) book is: Secrets of the Temple; How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country by William Greider. If anyone wants a serious primer on fractionalization, this is the place to go!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 22:33
Fireplug Guy Shorts>(Shorts): -
Kommissar in Moscov. Zay Inflation/Deflation not mak any difference.
NOT TO VORRY
Gold go up and shorts lose more dan skirt.
For Kommisar KGB,
Fireplug Agent, Kalifornia - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 22:27
Cmax Reply to Donald>(Reply to Donald): -
Donald:
Thanks for the first rock....but I ducked.
Your response: .......”the housing market shuts down. You say the government will issue bonds and the Fed will print the money. Who will buy the bonds? Where in this world are you going to find a voluntary customer under those circumstances?
My response: After the stock crash and subsequent mass real estate forclosure ......who says that the Fed will need to sell bonds to print money, even if no one will buy it The Feds will simply print the money ANYWAY. Inflation.
“Can money be printed outside the authority of a Central Bank?” Of course they can...they can, and will, and HAVE. Who says that the Central Bank would not recieve direct Presidential decree to do it?
But no, the gov would not force persons from their homes in a mass forclosure situation.....this too would be very hyper-inflationary....to control the raging masses.
Remember that the base root of all taxation and re-distribution of wealth in a democratic or socialistic society is to appease and control the masses, no more, no less.
Aurophile and Vronsky: thanks for the support.
Regards,
Cmax
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 22:23
TED @EB>(@EB): - EB: Good one....
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 22:15
EB George S. Cole...and this is a serious question.>(George S. Cole...and this is a serious question.): - You said a few weeks ago that everyone ( and I remember when many said that ) wants gold to go to $250 so it will most likely go there, and then many at this site jumped on that and agreed. Now you say ( as do others ) that this could be the end of the Bear and we'll have an explosive upside. What do you think attributed to the change in outlook or the possible rally? We aren't really even close to $250 or even $300. Is anyone still talking about $250?
semi-demi-goldbug...teetering gently to and fro...
AWAY
EB
Tort...do you have a bone ( golf joke ) to throw my way
I usually play in the mid to low 70's...if it gets any hotter I don't go out. yuk, yuk - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:52
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - DONALD: Glad to hear Harry Browne is close to your heart. He would have been 10 times the President either Bill or Bob could be. I acutally am a full blooded Libertarian and support them with my wallet as well as votes. The are maybe just educators now but....
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:51
robert jopdj ]are u]>(jopdj ]are u]): - In the July 1997 ed. of a magazine called __The Intellectual Activist ( TIA ) __ there was an interview with Richard Salsman ( RS ) Senior VicePresident of Wainwright Econometrics that had a question on the Fed.
TIA: Why are false doctrines still accepted at the Fed today, when its Chairman is Alan Greenspan? He used to know better---he wrote in __The Objectivists__ in the 1960s defending free banking and the gold standard. What happened? What are his ideas now?
RS: First, the Fed is not some scientific monetary institute. Central banks are a statist device to finance the welfare state. Second, Mr Greenspan is the Dr. Robert Stadler of Atlas Shrugged. He is fully aware of the truth, in this case about monetary affairs, yet leads and promotes the government agency destructive of objective money.
As to his motivation, I leave it to others who know him personally. For myself, I would not even trust his private pronouncements. What some people call Potomac Fever, Ayn Rand used to call power lust.
But his public record is very clear. It involves a series of intellectual cave-ins for the sake of maintaining political standing. He was President Ford's top economic advisor in 1974 and 1975, when the Whip Inflation Now campaign--complete with WIN buttons --was launched, blaming inflation on business and labor. He fought Reagan's tax cuts and supported Bush and Clinton's tax hikes. He claims budget deficits should be closed at all costs, even though result from excessive
spending , not insufficient taxes. In 1981, he scared Ronald Reagan and his advisors from returning to the gold standard by resorting to bogus arguments.. He headed the Social Security Commission in 1983 and recommended huge hikes in the payroll tax, even though partial privatization options were available. When the banking system collapsed in the late 1980s, he refused to blame the Fed or regulation or the socialist deposit insurance system. He always argued for more Fed powers.
His tenure at the Fed has included the 1987 stock market crash, the banking collapse of 1988 through 1990, the recession in 1990, the huge gyrations in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. He rejects sound stock market advances as irrational exuberance, echoing Keynes. And he
endorses the Phillips Curve.
His reputation for delivering low inflation rate exists only because his predecessors were sop bad. But inflation rates under Greenspan are still twice as high as they were in the 1960s.
He has become notorious for speaking in a vague and eclectic manner and has himself joked about being proud of it. He promulgates no standards. He is not an Objectivist, but a pragmatist-statist. He is less an economist than a bureaucrat. He does not work in a statist government to rationally reform it; he works in because he prizes the power it assigns him.
This magazine's addrss is:
http://www.nationweb.com/t/TIA/tia-1.html
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:44
TED @a+e>(@a+e): - Nazi gold on A+E....
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - VRONSKY: Per you suggestion I obtained Money Meltdown by Judy Shelton. I am reading it now. I had to order it as it is not on the shelves here.
She knows her stuff and says it well. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:18
vronsky INFLATION VS DEFLATION>(INFLATION VS DEFLATION): - Cmax ( Deflation? I think not ) : Magnificently insightful analysis of where the US is heading. Your hypothsis is very well substantiated. In support of your opinion of what are the ramifications of a looming hyper-inflation, may I suggest for Kitco readers the following book ( 1980 ) : THE PENNILESS BILLIONAIRES by Max Shapiro. It is a fascinating exploration of four great Inflationary Eras of the past. Why they arose - Who and what caused them - How family fortunes sruvived or WERE DESTROYED - And what were the cardinal warnings of each SUPERINFLATION.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:09
George Cole chart>(chart): - BYRON: Thanks for that MOST INFORMATIVE CHART!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GEORGE COLE: I read that story in Barron's twice. I am still confused about the merits of his argument, even though I think I agree with his bottom line. I need a PhD in gobbleygook I guess.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:04
Donald @Home>(@Home): - More from Korea, different slant, old news.
Presidential Candidates Urge
Gov't to Rescue Kia
07/25 18:43
Presidential candidates of the ruling and opposition parties yesterday
urged the government to rescue the troubled Kia but the government
made it clear that it will maintain a hands-off policy regarding the fate of
individual private companies.
The clash between political candidates and policymakers is expected to
deepen as the presidential election approaches. Presidential candidates, in
attempts to win sympathy from voters, are likely to continue to pressure
the government to rescue Kia.
But policymakers said that there are limits in extending a helping hand to
individual companies like Kia.
The Kim Young-sam administration is in a dilemma over helping the 11th
largest group. Its financial assistance to Kia would invite trouble from the
World Trade Organization, which strictly bans subsidies to private
enterprises.
Government aid, be it direct or indirect, will antagonize US and European
car makers, who might then impose penalty duties on Korean cars.
However, presidential candidates and their parties sing a different song as
they head toward the election in December.
Lee Hoi-chang, candidate of the ruling New Korea Party, got a briefing
on the details of Kia's financial health from Deputy Premier and
Finance-Economy Minister Kang Kyong-shik Thursday. He let his
deputies speak out in support of Kia.
Kim Dae-jung, president of the first opposition National Congress for
New Politics, and his deputies held talks with representatives of the
subcontra tors supplying parts to the nation's third largest auto maker.
The party said it is necessary for the central bank to extend emergency
funds to Kia through its creditor banks. Kim Jong-pil of the United Liberal
Democrats has also visited Kia factories.
In an Assembly interpellation yesterday, Rep. Lee Woo-Jae of the ruling
NKP, criticized the government's lukewarm attitude over Kia, saying that
the government should adopt special measures to bail out the automaker.
He said Kia's problems are not limited to one individual company, in view
of its enormous effect on the economy.
Rep. Chang Che-shik of the first opposition NCNP, blamed the
government for its ``easy-going'' attitude over Kia.
NKP's Rep. Kim Ki-jae said the government should take special steps to
assist Kia, to show that it has a moral duty to rescue ``a model company''
in trouble, warning that Kia's collapse will have a domino effect on the
economy.
NCNP's Lee Seok-hyun said the United States provided 1,500 million
dollars to Chrysler when it was in trouble in 1989, justifying government
support for a core national industry.
Rep. Chung Seh-kyun of NCNP noted that massive layoffs and financial
market turmoil will follow unless Kia is saved. He noted that there appears
to be a systematic plot to turn over Kia to Samsung.
But Deputy Premier Kang said the government must be neutral in its
economic policy, saying that creditor banks will be responsible for the
future of the automaker. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 21:02
George Cole Contradictions>(Contradictions): - One article in today's Barron's argues that we stand on the brink of deflation and the Fed better CUT rates soon. Another focuses on the strength in cyclical stocks. Who is kidding who?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:58
Byron @ Hope Spring Eternal:>(@ Hope Spring Eternal:): - I believe that we getting closer to an up move in gold and gold shares according to my technical indicators. But as the car commercial on radio states perception is not alway reality.
Several months ago I pointed out to everyone that during the 1993 and 1994 period we had 4 times in which the green met the red and an immediate reaction when that occurred. The reaction was downward. Someone ( I forget who ) gave a well thought out explanation of the reaction when the red merged with the green.
Anyway that situation is not present now but the next time they merge again, I'M GOING TO BE READY.
Library closes in 3 minutes. Everyone have a great remaining weekend. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:53
vronsky The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy (Section - III)>(The Role of a Central Bank in a Bubble Economy (Section - III)): - Professor Miller of New York University - describes the dire economic and financial consequences subsequent to Japan’s own excessive and IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE: “The Bubble Bursts: 1990-91”
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/cscb003.html
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:53
George Cole Inflation>(Inflation): - CMAX: Agree that long-term deflation is virtually impossible. We could have declining prices for a year or two if the stock market crashes. The Fed will pump like mad, but prices could head south for awhile before the excess liquidity is able to turn things around.
That is why I argue that any shift in the ongoing investment paradigm is bound to energize the yellow in a big way.
Bottom line -- we can have deflation for a year or two, but the aftermath will be a much higher rate of inflation; this goes double if the dollar tanks. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:50
Byron @ New Margin Requirements>(@ New Margin Requirements): - Just looking at the new margin requirements information slip I received from Schwab. One thing I noticed is that for U.S.Treasury Strips the Currently Requirement was : Not Marginable. The New Requirement: Maintenance requirement is 10% of the face value.
I read this to mean that Schwab has now made it easier to purchase U.S. Treasury Strips. Well, I guess they have to make it easier for us to buy Bonds. China and Japan don't want them anymore.
There are also changes in the purchases of U.S. Treasuries. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Interesting chart. It seems that in the past when the XAU was below the ratio it worked eventually up to meet it. That would seem to say that gold stocks are due for an immediate rally. How do you read it?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:42
bold aurizons found it!>(found it!): - Skylark-
Thanks for the Fed URL. Found the paper.
Cheers...
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:39
Byron @ Once Again:>(@ Once Again:): - Posted this Weekly Gold/XAU Ratio chart a few days ago. Does any one have any commentary of the current wide gap between the Ratio and the XAU lines. Looks like a rubber band is about to snap. But which direction?
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html
This certaintly appears to be the widest gap for the lenght of period shown on the chart. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:39
WW @Aurophile>(@Aurophile): - Auro your comparison of now to1929 is apt and your distinction as things are better now b/c then was the end of the gold std is interesting. I propose that things are much worse now at least for the US and non resource rich developed countries which own dollars and that this heralds the end of the dollar std which augurs for a financial meltdown of epoch proportions.
Just think Japanese own mostly dollars and have almost no natural resources...HMMMM. Russia has no economy but does have undeveloped natural resources. HMM Who really is richer. Yeltsin sees the importance of gold but I guess it is his experience that makes him so. If Russia buys/owns gold they can tell IMF/USA financial people to take a hike!! Act One comming to a CNN or CNBC near you stay tuned!!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:37
George Cole stock market>(stock market): - YETANOTHERTLURKER; The suggested scenario is not plausible to me either. If if were in Greenspan's and Rubin's shoes, I would try to engineer a stock market correction in the near future; certainly by year-end 1997 at the latest. That way, there is a good chance the market will be running up again when the next election rolls around. If the big drop is delayed to 1999 there is a much smaller chance the market will be booming again in the year 2000.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:36
Byron @ Post Digestion:>(@ Post Digestion:): - Aurophile: Hope digesting of my post does not ruin you evening festivities or dinner.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - CMAX: Most banks now pass through their mortgages to a Federal Agency as soon as they are written so little paper work needs to be done in the event of default. The US government already owns the houses of America. Lets assume that the Depression is worse than the 30's. Unemployment goes to 35%, another large segment part-timed with reductions in salaries. The housing market shuts down. You say the government will issue bonds and the Fed will print the money. Who will buy the bonds? Where in this world are you going to find a voluntary customer under those circumstances? Those who already have bonds will sell in a panic. They could do what France did in 1968? Force some of those who remained employed to buy bonds by payroll deduction. That was deflationary in France and would be the same here. Is the system different in Venezuela? Can money be printed outside the authority of a Central Bank? I do not think people will be forced from their homes. Payments will be allowed to be delayed. Terms will be stretched over a longer period. Pension plans that rely on mortgage payments to pay pensioners will be forced to reduce pension payments. Kids will move back with their parents, families will double up.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:19
Vieserre home>(home): - AUROPHILE. Thanks for the learned reply which I believe has merit and is important to keep in mind. What I personally find hard to square with the consensus outlook of low inflation is the reported low inventories of some important industrial raw materials, ie aluminum, in face of a rising global GDP where these materials should come into substantially greater demand. As you pointed out, there is no monetary anchor to retain the price of these materials in the absence of a gold standard.
And if wages were to accelerate in conjunction with an increase in industrial raw materials, as would appear likely with higher employment, the rate of inflation should, it would seem, significantly increase.
In addition, the consensus view, and the stock market as well, apparently does not take into account any adverse economic or financial surprises, which could be reasonably expected to occur. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:18
aurophile k>(k): - Cmax: Sounds like a Nobel Prize for economics is in your future...:- ) ) ) IMHO... really gone for night.///byron: i'm still digesting your post/// cheers!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 20:06
Byron @ The P.L.>(@ The P.L.): - Place Your Bets: Just noticed the search function states: Coming August l997.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:56
Byron @ I'm Neutral:>(@ I'm Neutral:): - Either deflation or inflation: I intend to ride the waves. : )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:50
Cmax inflation v.s. deflation>(inflation v.s. deflation): - Cmax ( Deflation? I think not. ) :
Deflationists:
It seems to me that most are missing some key points that should be
considered, for those that feel we are headed for deflation. The principal catalyst for the deflation event would be the inability of the general public to pay realestate loans. These properties would
go to forclosure ( barring any defered bankrupcy decrees a la 1930's ) , but that does not necessarily mean that they will be auctioned off at 50% or less of their value, this time around.
Let’s consider the worst....stock market crashes.....millions of people lose their jobs......massive amounts of mortgages go unpaid......banks go belly up......boom!, we have a supposed deflation scenario as contended by it’s theorists......
but let’s not stop just there..........
....now the banks that are belly up will be taken over by the varios
institutions designed for this event, like the FDIC. The realestate mortgage are then channelled back into the fannie maes/macs, and they in turn channel the liquidation of these debts back to the retail level ( I’m not exactly up on the names of the varios gov departments involved, but this would be the general idea ) .
*IF* they were to allow a huge volume of properties to be sold substantially under the owed amount, two things would happen:
1. This difference in price ultimately must be compensated by the printing of more paper ( inflationary ) . The morgagee sure won’t have any more to give.
2. Each and every property liquidated below present “market” values, would only add to deflation of the market and need for printing even more paper, thus creating the proverbial vicious circle, which is something that they will avoid at all costs.
It seems to me that the gov will be forced to NOT liquidate these properties too low, and will try to prop them up by papering and printing everything over, such as offering certain “incentives” and
“deferences” for buyers to purchase at present levels, thus avoiding our
dreaded deflation. In Venezuela I witnessed a total monetary collapse, as
95% of all banks were taken over by the goverment, who were simultaneously printing UNGODLY amounts of money. In a year, the exchange shot from 90:1 to 500:1.....but none of the banks' properties were liquidated at cheap prices. The goverment just sat on them....creating in itself a massive inflation. And the real estate market STOPPED dead in the water for 2 years, but no deflation occured ( not even after the devalued exchange compared to the dollar ) .
As with the U.S. goverment, nothing short of a total monetary collapse will change this same course of events. Whether they liquidate at prices
much lower than today’s market, or sit and wait, of give incentives and
deferences......ALL of these tactics spell h-y-p-e-r-i-n-f-l-a-t-i-o-n.
Something else that most deflationist’s like to banty around, is the example set in the 1930’s. Today’s world has NOTHING in common with the
1930’s, which were on the gold standard, which prevented a goverment to
“inject liquidity” ( print cash fast ) into the economy, until that fatefull day when gold possesion was outlawed. Today, they can and
do print at will, without restraints and in a manner unprecedented, and they WILL again, because this time they don't have their meaningless golden chaparone to restrict them. This time, they will give out welfare benefits to quite down an incredibly large and hungry mob, so they can fill their bellies. There will simply be no other choice. They will again law the possesion of gold, out of logical expedience. But this time, I believe it will be too late, as the mainstream thought ( with events running their course up to this point ) will reject the confiscation of their gold, which will boomerang and create a black market that will send the price even higher. As they said in that
dinosaur movie: Life will always find a way. Free markets are as natural as life itself.
No matter how you cut it, I seems to me that, in the event of a real market crash, hyper-inflation will take over this time.....not deflation. Those who want to use the deflation Tokyo properties as an example, must also bear in mind that the game is not over until it’s over, meaning that a “provincial” example is not comparable to an implosion of the world’s reserve currency.....the U.S. dollar. As long as there is a stable reserve currency to fall back on ( in today’s political mindset ) we can have some deflation......but without this stable reserve currency ( or when it implodes ) , HYPER-INFLATION will definitely take the helm.
An opinion from a connesuier of common sense; rock throwing by rational
thinkers solicited.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:47
Byron @ The Rack:>(@ The Rack:): - Ron: Plead Not Guilty. I was about 60-70 miles away up here in Santa Rosa. :+ )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:46
Byron @ The Schwab Button:>(@ The Schwab Button:): - Panda:
95% of the time I trade using the telebroker system although I do have the option to trade on-line using the internet I have not choosen to do so at this time. Information about the change in margin requirements came in the last set of monthly statements ( which the broker at Schwab was quickly to remind me. ) So if you have a margin account with shares under $10.00 you might want to give them a call before any surprises come you way like I experienced. How many people will be effected by these changes I don't know and will probably know of after the facts via the newspapers. It will be interesting to see if there is any type of sell off especially at the opening on Monday for those shares $10.00 and under.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:36
panda @>(@): - aurophile -- I'm a default inflationist! :- ) )
But I do see a good case made by the deflationists. Thing is, gold isn't a factor in fiat money ( ? ) anymore. Prior to the removal of gold as 'money', deflation did occur. This was the primary reason for leaving the 'gold' standard, so 'we' could 'fix' the 'recessions', which used to be called 'depressions'. See, we fixed'em! :- ) ) - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:30
panda @leaving.Schwabee>(@leaving.Schwabee): - Byron -- I am curious about your Schwab 'experience'. Do you use their on-line trading software or do you talk to a live broker? If Schwab has changed the margin requirements, no one has told me yet!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:28
aurophile k>(k): - Vieserre: I am being advised by my wife that I must get ready for Saturday night festivities, so I must be brief. The quickest, but not best, way to put it is that the business cycle did not cease in 1913 when the FED was born. ( Nor in 1997 when Clinton and the financial and academic community announced that the business cycle was dead. )
Rampant inflation occurred in 1935-36 and in 1973-74 when the FED pushed hard on the accelerator instead of the brake. While the FED does not issue bonds, the Treasury does, and there is no question that the massive quantities of bonds issued in the 1930's and 1980's sucked money out of the economy and worsened the declines in both instances. Now the stock market is sucking funds from everywhere, but in this case economies are growing. As soon as money has second thoughts about where to go, the economies will roar and so will prices. Oh sure the FED will pay lip service to stability, but it will fiddle so as not to rock the good ship boom.
I apologize for this totally inadequate reply to your question. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:11
Vieserre home>(home): - AUROPHILE: As I am sure you are aware, there are a respectable group of economists who believe we're entering a prolonged period of price stability. These include Philip Braverman and former Federal Reserve Alan Blinder who contend this is due to the end of the cold war opening up a competive labor pool and market and the absence of supply shocks. And that each inflation/deflation cycle continues to dampen rather than accentuate inflation. Moreover, the most recent Livingston Survey as well as the Survey of Professional Forecasters predict low inflation for the foreseeable future.
This view of continued low inflation is supported by the current long term disinflationary trend where global inflation is at a 25 year low - with a remarkable reduction in inflation even in previous high inflation countries such as in Latin America where inflation has gone from over 300% to 7% in just six years.
In in view of this, I would be interested in reading how your studies conclude that the FED actually works to reinforce the prevailing flation/disinflation cycle rather than moderate it.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:10
aurophile j>(j): - kiwi: LOL!!! and a soros is what you get from being in the saddle too long...:- )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:06
kiwi on cowboys 'n ASEANs>(on cowboys 'n ASEANs): - ZORO's to the rescue?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 19:04
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - All: Sorry, someone just pointed out Panda's posting earlier today.
Donald: 'Ya won't find me defending Republicans!
Byron: Were you in the ride yesterday? - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:52
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - 7/26/97 -- 2:53 PM
Malaysian leader names U.S. billionaire behind currency attacks
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia ( AP ) - Malaysia's prime minister named George Soros on Saturday as the American businessman he
considers responsible for the plunge in the value of Southeast Asian currencies.
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said the billionaire is behind a recent wave of speculative attacks.
``We have worked 20 to 40 years to develop our countries to this level and along comes the man with a few billion U.S. dollars and
within a period of two weeks, he has undone almost ( all ) the work we have done,'' Mahathir said.
Media reports had said Soros was clearly the target of accusations Mahathir had made earlier in the week. Mahathir blamed an
American billionaire for the currency instability - but didn't identify Soros by name until now.
Mahathir said Soros was using his financial might to hurt countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and keep them from
admitting Burma as a member because of its human rights record, Mahathir said.
Soros has denied that his Open Society Institute and Soros Foundations, philanthropic groups that have sought to promote democracy in
Burma and elsewhere, have any connection or influence on his financial dealings.
In New York, calls placed to the Soros Fund Management, his investment group, went unanswered Saturday.
Burma was admitted to ASEAN on Wednesday over the objections of the United States and some European countries, which believe
the Burmese government should be isolated to pressure it to improve its human rights record.
In recent weeks, several Southeast Asian currencies have been propelled to new lows by a series of speculative selling attacks. The
selling was originally prompted by economic problems in Thailand.
Responsibility for the declines, however, is hard to pinpoint because local banks as well as outsiders have been involved in the selling.
ASEAN foreign ministers, meeting in Kuala Lumpur, expressed strong concern Friday about the currency instability and said they would
cooperate in fighting the speculation.
Mahathir said the declines hurt poor people the most.
``These are the people that have to be protected from George Soros, who has so much money and power but is totally thoughtless,'' he
said.
Not all ASEAN officials agree the plunges were caused by a deliberate political attack.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon said he believes fund managers - mostly Westerners - have been targeting ASEAN
currencies to make profits.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is expected to discuss Burma with the ASEAN foreign ministers this week. It was unclear whether
Malaysia would bring up the currency issue with her.
``I can't speak for George Soros,'' State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said Saturday. ``But I don't think there's any conspiracy
at work here.''
The Open Society Institute finances the Burma Project, a 3-year-old operation that seeks to publicize human rights abuses in Burma and
support opposition groups.
Soros was dubbed the ``Man Who Broke the Bank of England'' in 1993, after he gambled about $10 billion that Britain would be forced
to devalue the pound. Faced with a wave of speculators selling the currency, the bank gave in. Soros walked away with an estimated $1
billion. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:51
aurophile i>(i): - Nomercy: Thanks for the reference to the Greenie pieces. I never knew much about his personal life but always suspected, from his occasional grins, that he had a little Walter Matthau in him. Jazz musician eh?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:47
aurophile i>(i): - Nomercy: Thanks for the reference to the Greenie pieces. I never knew much about his personal life but always suspected, from his occasional grins, that he had a little Walter Matthau in him. Jazz musician eh?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:46
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - FRONT.....
Your chat with PNEUMA off-line is just the thing I would have wanted to see ON-LINE.
Send your Email address to the above and I will
forward you the reply. Best Regards ... Schippi
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:32
aurophile h>(h): - Tortfeasor: Maybe Albuquerque should invite Greenie to be the grand marshall for the balloon festival this fall....:- )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:32
pyramid its a warm one today>(its a warm one today): - George Cole. Omitted from your post of Friday, July 25th at 16:25 The Ides of August was Iraq attacking Kuwait on August 2, 1990.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:31
nomercy Greenspan>(Greenspan): - Several articles on Greenspan, including recent testimony & speeches
http://www.newsworks.com/NewsWorks/jump/1,1199,,00.html?dest_url=www%2Ewashingtonpost%2Ecom%2Fwp%2Dsrv%2Fbusiness%2Fdaily%2Fmarch%2F23%2Fgreenspa%2Ehtm%0D - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:28
Ron Jett rjett@mindspring.com>(rjett@mindspring.com): - Just a short note for those that visit my page that I have placed the lates Gold/Silver reading from Barrons on there now if you care to view.
Thanks to all http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Floor/3046/ - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:26
aurophile g>(g): - Donald: I heartily agree that in many cases corporate balance sheets are worse as the game has been to realize shareholder value, which has meant in many older firms ( GM ,IBM, etc. ) esentially converting balance sheet assets to earnings in order to run the P/E up. This is the Gerstner Game. These companies are on the Woolworth/Montgomery Ward path. ( How many firms from the 19th century are still in business and trading? There is always corporate death as well as birth. ) The deflationist goldbug's best hope is a crash after which gold flies. But I do not see a crash happening. Studies I have seen recently do not see P/E ratios as high as those of prior years and in no event are they as high as Japan in 1990, not that P/E ratios are in any way the whole story. I see a normal bear market ( say 15-25% ) as inflationary expectations rise ( like 1946-49 ) and then a continution of the bull market which began in 1982. The continuation will be more fitful as inflation gradually increases over the next few decades. There will be more frequent and deeper bear markets, but the DJIA will be substantially higher than it is now in nearly any timeframe you wish to consider. Whether it will be so after adjustment for inflation is another matter.
Obviously this is just my opinion and not a guarantee, but I think it fits the current facts and the situation better. 1929-32 was the ultimate ( =last ) act of the ancien regime of the gold standard which ran approximately from when Isaac Newton fixed gold in 1720 until Roosevelt, and later Nixon, unfixed it. That regime was marked by frequent crashes and panics and relatively stable prices. That was then and this is now.
Anyway, I've marked my territory as it were. Now I'll try to sit back and sniff and see what I can learn from others...:- ) Keep your good reports coming. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:17
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TORTFEASOR: The Hartford Courant ran a cartoon showing the mobile rover on the surface of Mars. It's periscope is pointed at an Up Arrow marked Dow Jones Average piercing the Mars crust and pointing toward the Mars sky. The only caption is a question mark over the rover as it wonders what it is looking at.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:15
Tortfeasor Bottoms up>(Bottoms up): - I said it at $350, gold is not going substantially lower. I was wrong then but I'll say it again, gold is not going substantially below $325. Inflation or not, the intrinsic value of the metals is substantially above the present market price. I have been amazed that inflation has not manifest itself in consumer prices to the extent it should have at this point. When all those dollars buzzing around wall street like flies around fresh droppings turn away from the investments and to consumer goods that is when inflation will pick up like gangbusters. As confidence in the economy weakens and the profitability of investing in stocks declines that is the scenario which I see. My feeling is that we as a country has been incredibly lucky to have the prosperity we now enjoy. What will cause a reversal? Any of a number of things might derail the train.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:12
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 18:06
Tortfeasor Comments>(Comments): - The Albuquerque Journal ran a political cartoon yesterday or the day before whcih I found to be pretty insightful. It portrayed a hot air balloon in the shape of a large bloated pig which was coming apart at the seams. The balloon was titled the stock market. Below it were observers in the gandola of the balloon remarking, What inflation? I don't see any inflation. When the Albuquerque Journal becomes that insightful, one must wonder if the truth is in the cartoon after all.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: Your Friday 23:48 post included the following:
In essence what we have seen is that both corporations AND government have strengthened
their balance sheets at the expense of the individual. This is all well and good, but in any
society it is not sustainable, least of all in a democracy.
You have raised a key point. In spite of some improvement however, both governments and corporations were far better situated in 1929 than they are today. The US government was rock solid in 1929. General Motors had an acid ratio of $2.64? vs: about 16c now. During the recent years of since the Savings & Loan disaster the Fed has engineered interest rates to bail out the remaining banks. Savers were the suckers for too long. Tired of 2% on their savings they have flocked to stocks out of desperation. Thousands, millions? were downsized, NAFTA, etc more jobs lost. The 4% unemployment number is a joke. It ignores the underemployed, those highly skilled people who flip hamburgers now. These people are not complaining now because their stocks are up and they feel rich because their IRA makes them millionaires even after downsizing. How will they react after a market crash? Not well I am afraid.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:51
Byron @ The Good Old Days:>(@ The Good Old Days:): - Talking about the 60's and 70's, anybody for a good old bike ride in sunny and foggy San Francisco.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: When I predicted Deflation this morning I meant that that is what I expect the next and immediate future will bring. I am talking about the aftermath of a stock market crash or a series of bank runs in Asia spreading around the globe or what have you. I shop too, I agree that we have a small inflation now. I absolutely do not expect that this small inflation will creep up year by year to 5%, 10%, 15% etc. The trend is deflation, it started in 1980 and will continue at a swifter pace soon Regarding the M2 money supply. There was 10 Billion drop this week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Not seasonally adjusted it was down 18 Billion.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: When I predicted Deflation this morning I meant that that is what I expect the next and immediate future will bring. I am talking about the aftermath of a stock market crash or a series of bank runs in Asia spreading around the globe or what have you. I shop too, I agree that we have a small inflation now. I absolutely do not expect that this small inflation will creep up year by year to 5%, 10%, 15% etc. The trend is deflation, it started in 1980 and will continue at a swifter pace soon Regarding the M2 money supply. There was 10 Billion drop this week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Not seasonally adjusted it was down 18 Billion.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:35
aurophile f.rev>(f.rev): - form=from in aurospeak.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:34
aurophile f>(f): - MIKE SHELLER: Amen, he shouted form the back pew, and then in a quieter voice added, but may I suggest that's it's always only the 54th year in the K wave since the last similar time... ( 8^ ) ) ) ) ) ) !!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:31
nailz aurophile.....>(aurophile.....): - AUROPHILE.....You can't imagine how good about 2 years of that 12% inflation of the late 70s would be to my pocketbook....Would cause a lot of pain in some places though when you try to make a soft landing....
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:27
Mike Sheller (f)>((f)): - AUROPHILE, & all: The phenomenon of the DEflation scenario taking a powerful holds of Kitcoites recently may be the psychological ramifications of the dipping gold price. Goldbugs tend to be manic when gold is rising, naturally ascribing it to the smart money tipping us off that inflation is finally taking hold and the demise of civilization is near. During gold's declines, and disappointing reactions as it builds THE monster base for the end /turn of century run to $2400 by 2003, goldbugs, like all other humans are susceptible to demoralizing delusions. Now please don't anyone accuse me of dissing goldbugs. I am one myself. And I DO leave room open for reasoned, and potent DEflation arguments, as brother & sister Kitcoites have been making quite impressively these days. But the TECHNICAL TRUTH ( sorry for shouting ) of the matter is, there has only BEEN inflation since 1934, and there can only BE, so long as the money supply is increased chronically, year after year, without tie to specie. This also being the FIRST Kondratieff Wave 60ish year cycle wherein this condition obtains, even a collapse of stock prices may not necessarily create a general deflationary trend. It may be counted only as a crisis, which will be met with measures of liquidity unseen in human history. There is a lot to consider now. We are truly in a new era. One in which inflation cannot and will not stop until a full specie or commodity money standard is returned to.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:13
kiwi GLENN in the pit>(GLENN in the pit): - The beginning of the Gold War. ...the market is very confused...both long and shorts are scared...both have big well financed traders behind them... Whenever have big well financed traders been on opposite sides?
Reminds of the nursery rhyme....
Georgie porgie pudding and pie,
kissed the girls and made them cry,
when the BIG boys came out to play,
georgie porgie ran away.
Time to cut and run cowboy Georgie. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:08
aurophile e>(e): - Deflation? What deflation? In a short and sweet front page piece in his 21 July 1997 issue of Freemarket Gold & Money, James Turk reports on his own survey of prices and comments on the current deflation mania:
So my conclusion is quite simple. There's no deflation. But the government and everyone else who has a vested interest in making believe that the Federal Reserve is not pumping up the money supply ( and therefore the stock market ) has mnade sure most everyone believe that deflation, and not inflation is the worry today....
If there were deflation today, the money supply would be shrinking like it did in the 1930's ( but M3 grew by 7.1% in the latest 12 month period ) , and stock prices would again be collapsing like the 1930's, instead of booming.
I think we are witnessing a popular delusion. There is a wide-spread mystical belief in a non-existent deflation.............
I had not read this when I posted my peice last night and my followup this morning, but I believe it fits well into my notion that that we are being set up for opening the spigots rather than turning them off. What Greenspam has been hinting at for months is that rising worker demands for increased wages WILL bring inflation back and that politics will demand that they be accomodated. My studies show conclusively that the FED actually works to reinforce the prevailing inflation/disinflation cycle rather than moderate it.
Last year I posted a great deal on Antal Fekete's great discovery that the burgeoning government bond market is what accentuates and prolongs economic downturns, and the FED is a close second in that action. Then when inflation does restart, as it has, they twiddle their thumbs and eventually ease since they fear that worker demands and price increases will otherwise choke off the boom. This while the full coffer government starts spending all that largesse of the expansion instead of reducing expenditures.
I am mentioning all this again because I sense that even at Kitco, home of the gold bug, the disinflation/deflation scenario rules at the moment. I do not expect to make converts. I remember all too well the same arguments of the 1960's and 1970's and know that some who were deflationists then are so still today. Nevertheless, prices are several hundreds of percent higher today for many items than they were then and considerably higher than they were at the start of the so-called disinflationary period in 1982. Inflation has never stopped, it is just that the spinmeisters and money folk have directed attention from it. Don't be fooled.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - YETANOTHERLURKER: No. Not plausable to me. I think things will happen much faster than that. Weeks and months, not years. Too many things all over the globe are going wrong at the same time.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 17:00
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - VRONSKY: Best Will Rogers' humor was when he spent a few days in
hospital. He locked the door to his room. Directly, there was a
knock. Inside, Will said, Friend or enema? - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:48
YetAnotherLurker speculation>(speculation): - Heard the following speculative opinion last night.
Clinton, Rubin and Greenspan know how overvalued the market is but want the party to continue till 1999. Why? In 1999 they will be able to blame the crash on problems related to Year 2000 bug. Unexpectedly high costs of fixing the problem, investor pullback, etc. All they are trying to do is to buy time, 1.5 to 2 years. Plausible? - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:46
nailz HOT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(HOT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!): - HEY TED....Saw your post this AM...80 degrees, huh ?Heat index here today is 105-115..!! How is that for hot ? I can bring that bottle when I come...
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:46
Donald @Home>(@Home): - GOLDBUG23: I voted for Harry Browne this time around. His book that I read in 1978? The devaluation etc. made me a lot of money. I figured I owed him one.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:42
Skylark Found It>(Found It): - BOLD ARIZONS: The paper can be found at ( www.bog.frb.fed.us/ ) .
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:32
Skylark @>(@): - BOLD ARIZONS: Sorry but I do not have it. The study was announced by Reuters on June 12 The study was authored by Fed economist Dale Henderson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology student John Irons, University of Michigan professor Stephen Salant and Sebastian Thomas, a research analyst. I believe John Irons may have a web site under his name. You may also try the FED site.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:15
Goldbug23 @Armageddon>(@Armageddon): - Donald: Do you think that because as you put it Reagan signed off on the big deficit budgets the Democratic Congress was blameless? It took two to tango my friend. And yes, I too think Reagan could have fought the deficts with a few vetoes, as Big Bill does! I wish there was more difference between the two major parties. That is why I am becomming more of a Libertarian every day.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 16:12
Mike Sheller Greenpiece>(Greenpiece): - bw: A couple of nights ago I awoke around 2:30 am, couldn't fall back to sleep, & went downstairs and put on the TV. There was Greenspan on CSPAN, in the tape of the day's trestimony. Surely this, I said excitedly to Pepi, the family Pomeranian, will put us both to sleep right quick. Well, Pepi did finally nod off at my blanketed feet on the couch ( I think it was Barney Frank that did it ) but daddy kept his ears perked up - especially when AG was asked perhaps the most pertinent question of all - HE WAS ASKED WHAT WAS IMPLIED BY THE FACT THAT FOREIGN NATIONS HAD SUDDENLY BECOME NET SELLERS OF US TREASURY OBLIGATIONS, AND THAT THE FED HAD BECOME THE BUYER. Alan hemmed, hawed, Pepi's ears wiggled briefly, and then some other representative of the people waved the questioner off brusquely as though this was recondite and esoteric economics and of no concern to the American people. Did anyone else catch this. Sorry I can't remember the person who brought up the indelicate subject. It was during Tuesday's testimony.
The first half, by the way, sounded a bit like Greenspan had been reading The Aquarian Imperative at The Astrological Investor at Gold Eagle. Hmmm - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:47
vronsky GEORGE BERNARD SHAW>(GEORGE BERNARD SHAW): - Leland: I believe the great american comedien Will Rogers was paraphrasing the legendary Irish critic and playwright, George Bernard Shaw who said of the English paper currency:
“If you must choose between placing your trust in government or placing your trust in gold, then gentlemen, I strongly advise you to place your trust in gold.”
( :- ) )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:46
Byron @ Personality Type 8.>(@ Personality Type 8.): - Aurophile: Enjoyed your post of 23:48 of yesterday. Now that the flux of chaos has vanished from the Kitco site, it is good to see the return of rhyme and reason.
Your mention of Control. Overarching institutional control. in your comments again reminds me of the description of the personality type 8 as described by Don Riso in his 1987 and recently updated ( 1997 ) book titled Personality Types. I will quote just a very short section from a very long description of this type 8 personality:
Average Eights at this stage have an innate sense of the use of power, and they do not hesitate to wield it. Power people, they excise power in whatever form is at their disposal. They understand that power is not a thing but the ability to get things done, to shape events, and to make the enviorment conform to their vision. Power is not something which can be enjoyed in the abstract: it must be continually used if it is to be maintained.
And another section: A typical way of demonstrating their importance is their edifice complex. The epic scal appeals to them, both literally and figuratively. They enjoy building, whether a house or a financial empire, as long as it reflects themselves. In their private lives, average Eights would like to be monarchs ruling a large and powerful family dynasty which perpetuates their influence for generations. The wider their influence, the more they can have an impact upon the environment and ensure themselve of immorality, a goal which in various forms average Eights begin to seek.
Again, these two short paragraphs are only a small part of a 10,000 plus word description of the type 8 personality in which Riso is describing the movement of the psych of one type from healthty, average to an unhealty position.
I sometimes like to think of the movement of events in socity as the dominance of one particular type of psych over another. Right now and from the end of the cold war the dominate psych appears to be that of the type 8. We have won the cold war and now we are taking our peragatives, our spoils.
However this appears to have gone to extremes as Mr. Roach describes in his article. The political changes in England and France might be symptoms of the change from dominance by the 8 type personality back to ones that dominated in the 60's and 70's. That is the more social orientated types. Whether this will lead back to the negatives aspects of the 60' and 70's I can not say. But just a thought.
Hope this throws some small light on the Control. Overarching Institutional Control senario.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:44
Girlfriend of EB @ EB>(@ EB): - You are a very bad boy! Look at the lawn, dishwasher, washing machine, they haven't changed since I left...shame on you!
away...to the dog house!
EB's girlfriend - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:43
Donald @Home>(@Home): - RON: Republican Revolution? Here is the Republican Revolution that bothers me. During Ronald Reagan's 8 year term we ADDED to the National Debt an amount that equaled and exceeded all of the debt created during the term of every president since George Washington. He blamed it on the Democratic Congress but HE SIGNED OFF ON IT. I will believe that there is a real revolution when corporate America stops backing up their trucks to the US Treasury for corporate welfare payments. Water, Timber, GOLD, silver, broadcast bandwith, Export/Import payments, Sugar, tobacco, peanuts, you name it.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:37
bw Free trade economics:>(Free trade economics:): - Here is how free trade works for some software hours. In this country some software hours are billed at about 100 dollars/hr by several large corporations. The usa employee generating these billable hours receives about 70,000 in direct yearly salry with about another 30,000 or so in indirect costs ( health, pensions, ect ) . He/she receives about half the billable dollars. Ship the job to India. The Indian programmer receives about 5000 dollars yearly direct salry and 3000 indirect salry. Now you say the billable hours should cost about 20 dollars or so. Wrong. The cost is less than 100 but not much, perhaps on the order of 60-80. Who gets all this cash if not the worker who generates the income?
The consumer buying the end product pays 80 instead or 100. The worker doing the work gets 8000 instead of 100,000. Perhaps that is why all the foreign ( and domestic ) money is bribing our boys in dc. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:35
EB Ron...and you wonder...>(Ron...and you wonder...): - How I got so much Platinum for my Levi's...
away...to the garage full
EB - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:29
EB Mike Sheller...you the man...can there be a GIANT among GIANTS? now I want to Surf standing on your shoulders... >(Mike Sheller...you the man...can there be a GIANT among GIANTS? now I want to Surf standing on your shoulders... ): - with regards to the poorboys conversations...and thank you poorboys for ALL your comments.
Many Receive advice, few profit from it...Publilius Syrus
and another of my favorites...
Wise men profit more from fools than fools from wise men; for the wise men shun the mistakes of fools, but fools do not imitate the successes of the wise...Cato the Elder ( Marcus Cato )
Anyway, Platinum thru 400-410 congestion in the face of the Russian delivery is quite promising indeed ( although I do feel for their not too rosey situation over there, it is good for the longs ) . Next week or next month should be interesting.
I'm looking at the SUGAR/GOLD charts now. Thanks Bro ( genius I tell ya' ) . I can't understand why I haven't seen the correlation before as I am always on the lookout for these things...if you read or recall my FCOJ/GOLD correlation what do you think. I know, more of a coincidence but it's fun nonetheless. Both ( daily ) charts have been doing the same thing - divergence, triangles, wedges, etc. I guess this is just the typical base building processes. I am w/w OJ very closely and am long a little too. I will be looonger soon enough. OJ Has been acting like gold somewhat. The fundamentals have biggest crops EVER but the volatility is sill WAY high ( someone could have made some good money selling calls here, but I don't have the B*lls to play like that in a thin market-and those guys in the nyce pits are ruthless ) and the prices remain above the '93 crop ( inflation? ) . Now there is one of the biggest med-fly infestations since the California scare. Much news is bullish but look at the prices...Gold is feeling the same sting, no? Who knows...thanks for reading my post, anyway if you have gotten this far.
Back to volatility ( with the same rambling style ) . Sugar volatility has been low but lately it has picked up well...and NOW look at SI, GC, JO... http://www.cyberramp.net/~chrismc/futopt.htm they got to the top of the heap quicklike...what will happen indeed...I would like Gold to travel sideways for a while ( and I think it might ) to lower some of this volatility and make prices more attractive...on either side ( call/put ) ...we'll see.
Thanks Mike for ALL your posts past and in advance. Time to go clean the house...the woman just called from the salon and she is on her way home...oh no!
AWAY!
EB
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:23
John N. Retiarivs. Felix delenda est.>(Retiarivs. Felix delenda est.): -
SJJ: thank you for a post providing a reading of sentiment from the German press. That is most welcome, we need the dimension you provide; Germany is the engine of Europe. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:20
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON: Here are instructions on how to create your own forward looking chart for gold. Take a piece of plain paper. On the left hand side place a small dot. Mark it 6000 BC. On the right hand side make a similar dot. Mark it any future date you wish. Connect the two dots by using a ruler to draw a straight, level line. Your future chart for gold prices is now complete. The hard part is where to put the dots to indicate the prices of all the things you can buy with gold. They keep bobbing all over the place.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:03
kiwi vronsky>(vronsky): - Reading Guest Guru URE, we have had the shooting wars, a Cold War, with the marketplace now being the new battlefield are we in for a GOLD WAR? It certainly seems to me that SOmeone has managed to polarise the ASEAN in a time of foggy economic uncetainty as trigger. If the participating nations spent 10% GDP on gold market fighting what would happen to the price of gold I wonder?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:01
Bob @...BB Fisher>(@...BB Fisher): - semi-log please
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 15:00
Byron @ Back In The Library>(@ Back In The Library): - bb: log will be fine with me. Any chance you have a forward remote viewing chart for gold. ( i.e.- next weeks prices would even do ) : ) ) ) ) )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:55
Ron New Store of Value>(New Store of Value): - Maybe Americans could back their dollar with these instead of gold. CBs should look into it. http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1019.htm
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:55
SJJ steffenjaege@metronet.de>(steffenjaege@metronet.de): - John Disney; Fri Jul 25 1997 08:20; thanks for informing us; you wrote: „WD was due to treating more high grade mined material and less low grade surface material“; sometime they must work off low grade material and costs will rise again, or is this a mistake? you are still thinking, WD is the best SA-AU-investment? There is a recommendation of germans paper „boerse online“ to buy Avgold ( last time, they have had a „golden nose“ with their recommendations ) . What do you think after the accident this week, will this increase the risk? One more question: Implats seems to be weak compared with high platin-price and rustenberg-shares. Any thoughts why?
Bart: I understand your decision about John H., but I don`t understand many people in this forum why they couldn`t ignore him. Another point: the agreement with kitko2 seems to be not so great, when comparing the number of posters with kitko1; Gold-price and gold-shares coulden`t be divided, much of info`s about shares makes this forum so great ( John Disney`s information and many more ) . Would it be not be better to lay those two parts together?
German stockmarket: It is amazing, there are only three themes in newspapers: Tour de france, high tide and stock-market: In TV there are special telecasts, share-newspapers double their circulation, shares explodes ( short time DAX had been over 4500 ) . Surely vonsky and other people are right, german stocks are overvalued. BUT: we have another situation in germany: Until 1 year ago, the people had no interest in stocks, only 10 % owned shares ( compared to around 50 % in USA, when my information-source is right ) . This is going to change, every day mory people are deciding to put their money in, this will continue for next 3-6 month, because there is still a lot of people just watching, getting greedy, loosing their head and putting their money in. DAX at 5000 this year is not far away ( and 3000 in 1998:- ) ) . Regards SJJ
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:45
bb fisher choice>(choice): - all:
i will post the gold to dow 30 ratio from 1901-1997 tommorrow
do ya wanna see it in semi log scale or arithmetic scale?
it is too big for 1 chart so it will be in 2.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:38
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - If we had some of Will Rogers's wisdom today, wonder if Will wouldn't
be saying something like, If I'm understanding the situation correctly,
we've got these dollars backed by two cents worth of gold. Then we've
these shares backed by several ounces of gold in the ground. My friend,
if it's going to be some kind of long horse race between 'em, I think
you better put some money on shares. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:28
bold aurizons :-) >( :-) ): - Skylark -
Do you have a URL for the FED study about CBs selling all their gold?
If not, how could I obtain it?
Thanks
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:18
Jack Ron>(Ron): -
Ron ( 13:39 ) No doubt that the Rebublican Revolution brought a semblance of confidence to the USofA as an investment medium, meaning ( US Treasuries and Stocks ) which together halted gold from rising to its true level, that is by the huge amount of foreign money entering those investments.
It certainly helped Bubba and Spotted Al, as now they can say -look what the Dem's accomplished.
To sum it up; it's a one party system controlled by B/C interests.
When IBM and their like complain about international earnings, maybe the ( $ ) buck will fall? Then the Rebulicans may look better.
This back and forth treachery being placed on the American people will lead to hell for us all. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:03
Scotty gold really is intrinsic>(gold really is intrinsic): - Here's an interesting blurb from a URL posted yesterday. This backs up what I have been saying that gold will always have an intrinsic value. GenX'ers beware!!
The net shortfall between total demand and total supply over the past eight years has been filled by net official sales. It is not easy to connect this line to the current levels of media hysteria on the subject of official sales, or to the negative view taken by speculators over the metal in New York.
Compared with the amount of about 2 100 tons of net sales of official gold holdings over the past 10 years, an amount of almost 6 900 tons has been bought by Asian countries in the same period, placing the metal in hands where it is most certainly seen as a store of value. Full story at:
http://www.bday.co.za/97/0725/comment/c3.htm
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 14:01
Scotty N Korea famine>(N Korea famine): - Uh-oh. North Korea's kids are starving in bigger numbers than before:
North Korean famine serious
Saturday 26 July, 1997 ( 11:41am AEST )
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The charity organisation, World Vision, says the level of famine in North Korea is far greater than first thought by the west.
A team from the agency has just returned from a tour of five regions in North Korea, and says 40 per cent of the country's children are starving.
World Vision spokesman Allan Austin says the organisation believes conditions are probably even more desperate in the western provinces where food rationing was halted last month.
Mr Austin says the situation is extremely serious.
World Vision has established a hotline aimed at raising $1-million to buy food for the country's children.
© 1996 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:50
international bank insider FED'S GOLD SHORT SALES>(FED'S GOLD SHORT SALES): - pillbrain: Ref: QUESTION: Can the FED be the big short seller in the market? There is NO question that the FRB, possibly in cahoots with the World Bank & UBS are - AND HAVE BEEN - shorting gold right along. However, as others have pointed out in this august forum, these banks are just compressing the 'gold spring' that much more. When released, the gold price will surge forward.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:41
vronsky IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure>( IS 1929 BEING REPLAYED THIS YEAR? - by Guest Guru Ure): - There is an uncanny similarity between the DOW from January 1920 to April 1930 AND TODAY’S DOW track record. Avoid reading this study at your own peril - GUEST GURU URE:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:39
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - I was talking to a friend in San Francisco last night who made what I think is an interesting point. The Dow was at 3800 when Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress in November, 1994. Now it is more than twice that. How much of that runup is attributable to the Republican Revolution, or to the euphoria surrounding it, is debatable. Conservatives often claim that most of it is while liberals counter none of it is. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in between. In any case, the Republicans are now in complete disarray and the Republican Revolution has faltered. So, to the extent that the Republicans had *anything* to do with this bull market, their present state of disorder and total lack of direction must be viewed as bearish for the Dow and bullish for gold. But, he added, he's not convinced enough by the argument that he'll be shorting the S&P anytime soon, or going long gold. It's just one more nail in the Dow's coffin.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:33
Who Cares? emerald@rmci.net>(emerald@rmci.net): -
Depression / Agricultural workforce
Empirical evidence supports Donald. Two events have to occur to
make a stable system, based on history. Work week has to shrink
by 15-20 % and land prices have to drop 25-50%.
In the post-Civil war period, the total work eventually dropped
from 60 hours per week to 48 hours, regardless of the number of
argicultural workers. Likewise, the 1930s decreased the average
work week from 48 to 40 hours, regardless of agricultural workers.
In order to be able to afford the products of their own laber,
workers have to be able to purchase and USE those products. As more
stuff is produced in a smaller time period, leisure time has to
increase. Eventually.
It's already happening in Germany. At the moment, the process is
creating the appearance of a two-tier system, but I believe this
will pass. For instance, among professional white collar workers,
a great number work, in reality, a 30-35 hour week. I used to. My
father did, during his last 4-5 years of working.
Land prices have to fall, so that income is freed up to allow
the purchase of manufactured goods & services. You can see the
initial start of this process, too, in places like CA.
We won't have a stable system until both events take place.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:29
pillbrain @home>(@home): - SCENARIO: Australian gold sales are actually 'masked' FED gold sales to Japan and Korea.
CAUSE: Currency instability, military instability in region.
QUESTION: Can the FED sell the metal on the QT ?
QUESTION: Can the FED be the big short seller in the market ? - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:24
bw Greenspan's nightmare: The 100s part3>(Greenspan's nightmare: The 100s part3): - Greenspan is working on his third gin and water, the phone rings. Was it a standard pallet ( of iranian 100's ) ? Yes sir the usual quarter billion worth. Where did we pick it up? Bismarck, Bismarck North Dakota Sir. Bismarck are you kidding Smith? They are really shoving it in our face now, are they not?
Greenspans stomach contracts as if stabbed. His brain races and his mind fights to keep up. The demon comes home to roost, in damn North Dakota no less. I told the bastards, now we are there. How easy it was to print the money out of thin air. Just print it they said. What a joy when you can crush all other counterfeiters with impunity. Just crush em they said. And hell on earth when the counterfeiters can ship their garbage to Bismarck North Dakota. YOU crush em says I.
Alan thinks back to the lessons taught by the women in black and white, the lessons he learned so well in the third grade. Now Alan what do you do if you find a wallet stuffed with money on your way to school, do you stop at the candy store? No Sister Anne. But Alan you could buy candy for all your friends. It would not be right to spend money that was not mine. God how right I was, he thinks. The Iranians were now into their terminate phase. It had been bad enough buying their phoney 100s from the Europeans. At first the Europeans had taken the 100s we had printed in exchange for their Iranian 100s. We would print the 100s here, ship them to Europe, exchange the 100s we had printed for the phoney 100s the Iranians had printed, ship the Iranian 100s to a secure incinerator and burn em. All this was a lot of trouble but it cost us very little. Oh the external supply of good 100s was increased. What was the abject lie told by the treasury about the offshore currency supply, that it consisted of some hundreds of billions. Alan smiled, the bigger the lie the more believable. Alan hated to consider how many trillions it actually was. But that mattered very little. It would never be allowed back in the usa. But when the volume got to be in the several hundreds of billions we together with the Europeans had decided perhaps tbonds would be better ( and much easier to print ) . This cost much more because it cost something ( intrest ) .
But the phoney currency coming to North Dakota was even worse. Its cost was huge. The pampas are beatiful this time of year Alan thinks. ( to be continued ) - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 13:10
Jojo What a week!>(What a week!): - What a week! I see we have lost Hepcat. But the real story is the US stock market, and Alan G.
This week just about everyone who came into my office said something like, Thank God for Greenspan, or He really knows something, not like the politicians, or that Green span is a great genius, look at that stock market, by golly! there has never been one like him since Issac Newton, or maybe Plato, even. Most impressive of all was the gentlemen who told me that for years all he did was worry about his portfolio performance, but now with Greenspan I can relax, I don't have to worry anymore.
I wish Alan would retire so people would become afraid of the market again.
Jojo
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 12:51
George Cole JSE Gold Index>(JSE Gold Index): - John Disney; Thanks for your myriad posts re: the SA gold mining industry!
In past gold bulls, the SA golds have always posted the largest percentage increases. Do you expect this to be true again when bullion begins a new uptrend? How much might the JSE gold index advance if bullion was to rally to $375 by year-end? I say about 60%. Is this in accord with your thinking? - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 12:46
jfl'akfldkfqp rjko>(rjko): - Skylark
that is the main reason that gov't officals don't like free markets.
In the US look at the controls that politicians want to and have placed on medicine - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 11:45
Skylark Something To Think About>(Something To Think About): - The recent FED study concluded that if the FED sold all of its gold, gold would be valued at 340 and if all the CB's sold their gold, it would fall to only 309. Therefore, if the study has validity, is not gold currently under-valued.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 11:38
Skylark @>(@): - jfl.... Your point is well-taken. I suppose the gold market today is not unlike the currency markets. There, like gold, speculators are accused of driving the price of a currency down for their own monetary gain and but for the speculation, the currency would not have been devalued. But also, like gold, the speculators would not have sold the currency unless there were fundamental reasons to justify the devaluation.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 11:33
vronsky THE AUSTRALIAN GOLD SALES AND THE AFTERMATH >(THE AUSTRALIAN GOLD SALES AND THE AFTERMATH ): - Robert Pringle, Head of World Gold Council strongly criticizes Aussie Central Bank ( RBA ) FOLLY in sale of 2/3s of its gold. Following RBA sale, Aussie Gold Reserves lose $3 billion!!!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/aftermath.html
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 11:22
TED @Bridge>(@Bridge): - Bridge ( 10:04 ) I already subscribe to the WSJ...does that mean I get Barrons for free When I tried Barrons earlier I only got last week's issue...am too busy ta try again....gotta hit the ocean as it's a spectacular day and hot ( 80 degrees ) for here day....BBL!!!!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 11:02
jfl;dsjlfj jfl;sdajfa>(jfl;sdajfa): - Skylark
The quick ans is , for the same reason the NYMEX crude oil contract sets the oil price and not the oil companies.
The comex is the place where outside money can easily enter the gold market and call a bluff. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:56
Lan Man @Closing Bell July 25, 1997>(@Closing Bell July 25, 1997): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended higher across the
board Friday, on moderate volumes, with nearby active September
palladium registering a new contract high.
Gold and silver are choppy, with influential speculators going
long in the morning and taking profits in the afternoon this week,
PaineWebber analyst Bernard Savaiko said. I wouldn't start
thinking about getting short down here, but my gut feeling is gold
is going to go down and test the lows and maybe break them by a
small margin, as it's first notice day in August gold next week,
and the contract may get a good hit in that time frame, he said.
Gold may still be oversold, but the question is where is it going
to go on the upside with stocks, bonds and dollar still strong.
Sharply lower gold prices have resulted in South Africa's Free
State Consolidated Gold Mines, a division of Anglo American Corp,
warning of pit closures this week, while Canada's Echo Bay Mines
Ltd is reported to have cut back on processing low grade
reserves.
This will reduce worldwide production at a time when total
industrial and jewelry usage has been increasing substantially,
thus raising the annual deficit between ( mining ) supply and
demand, said Steven Jon Kaplan, editor of the Gold Mining
Outlook.
Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended up 4.0 cents at $4.315 an
ounce, with the September/December backing up to 6.5 cents, from
6.2 cents Thursday. September silver remains trapped in its
$4.20-4.40 range, after spot silver saw three year lows earlier
this month.
Platinum group metals ( PGM ) prices continued to recover steadily
from the two month lows seen in early July, despite the resumption
of Russian exports in the past week. Japanese traders said the
first Russian platinum shipments in six months arrived at Narita
Airport in Tokyo late Thursday. The first palladium shipments
arrived last week.
But the PGM forward price curves remain highly backwardated, with
palladium sponge at around a $10.00 an ounce premium to Zurich
ingot, traders said.
PGMs supplies are still critically tight and the question is
whether Russia will be able to meet the demand, Paine Webber's
Savaiko said. The consensus is whatever the Russians ship this
year will be less than year ago levels, and the fact that the
Russians are going back into the spot market this week suggests
they may be bypassing contractual obligations to get the highest
price, which could be indication they may not have a lot to sell,
especially in case of platinum.
For the full text story, see
http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4120291-4bd
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 324.80 328.00 324.30 326.50 +2.70 414.50 314.60
Oct97 326.30 329.30 326.00 328.30 +2.80 426.50 316.80
Dec97 328.50 331.10 327.50 330.00 +2.90 456.50 318.50
Feb98 331.00 332.00 330.40 332.10 +2.90 424.00 322.50
Est. Sales 89289
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 431.00 431.00 431.00 429.70 +4.30 631.00 418.50
Sep97 430.00 435.00 429.00 432.00 +4.00 576.00 418.00
Dec97 436.50 441.00 436.00 438.20 +4.00 701.90 424.00
Mar98 443.00 445.00 443.00 444.40 +4.00 573.00 432.00
Est. Sales 17929
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 190.00 194.00 186.25 189.65 +4.15 192.00 128.75
Dec97 180.00 183.50 176.00 181.65 +3.15 182.50 120.25
Est. Sales 985
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 428.00 430.50 427.50 431.70 +4.50 473.80 353.50
Oct97 414.00 417.00 411.50 416.70 +4.50 429.00 355.50
Jan98 397.00 405.50 397.00 404.70 +4.50 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 2774
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:52
vronsky Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future>(Sovereignty and Money: Past, Present and Future): - Glyn Davies, Prof Emeritus of Economics, University of Wales, ( UK ) , paints fascinating chronicle of money’s evolution from Jesus to Dostoevsky. Engrossing read of a great scholar:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/sovereignty.html
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:46
aurophile d>(d): - I made the following statements last night as part of a post:
Now comes the payback. The enormous money flows will switch from paper to real assets as demand for stuff and demand for wages increases. It needn't all fly at once. It could be a very gradual process..... What usually happens politically in this ( new ) emerging period is that the authorities begin to try to loosen monetary policy to accomodate the worker/voters without damping economic growth. In the process they worsen the inflationary trends already starting.
I have been asked about the use of the word damping and how it fits this scenario.
My answer is this: What I was trying to say was that instead of tightening when inflationary demands begin and slowing the economy, they bow to the pressure of the wage demands and actually loosen instead. This then acccentuates tthe inflationary push. In essence the Fed can tighten
only when labor is not very aggressive and worried about losing their
jobs. Greenspan has been hinting rather loudly about this for some
time now.
Nearly every public statement by Greenspan or Fed release in the past year has mentioned the possibility of labor getting more aggressive. Nearly everyone has taken this as a sign of Fed resolve to resist it. But I think the history of the FED shows that they do not. I think Greenspan is warning us theat inflation will return ( has returned ) and its measure IS labor demands.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:39
Scotty staff philosopher......>(staff philosopher......): - Bart...........I'm glad you are following the majority of your client's wishes. I'm all for free speech, but nothing is accomplished by posts directed at another person for the sake of meanness. I applaud your decision. I know it was a tough one for you.
By way of a little philosophy: this site is wonderful when it comes to seeing all the views. I have noticed that the bulls are a little easier on the bears these days ( compared to about 8 months ago ) . As long as an opinion is succinctly put, and backed up with facts/figures/theories as required or as requested, any view is welcome here -- IMHO. Shoot, if someone had the data to back up the fact that tomorrow the sun was going to come up in the west, I'd certainly listen and offer a counter argument using my facts and figures.
As a personal confession, I was pretty cynical with Mike Sheller's predictions and views based on astrology. I don't put much faith into that system - but Mike always backs up his posts with historical data and other pertinent and logical info. He will even intelligently and politely counter arguments by others why his views are correct. Most importantly, he is CONSISTENT. That gets my respect every time! I don't think he will win me over to the stars and the moon, but I enjoy reading his posts and at least try to understand where he is going. Who knows, he may be the only sane one on this channel........
For those that just can't stand an opposing view, I offer of this suggestion: take that view and save it somewhere on your computer. If it looks like you were right all along, dig that view up 6 months from now and POLITELY bring it up. I don't think anyone will have a problem dissecting what was and using that to start the next round of what will be. Conversely, if that view turns out to be correct, then post it anyway and congratulate the owner.
See, it's all so very easy. I like to use the analogy of baseball: It's a very simple game - you catch the ball, you hit the ball, and you throw the ball.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:37
Sweet-Gold-Tooth SUGAR VIS-AVIS GOLD>(SUGAR VIS-AVIS GOLD): - Mike Sheller: Many thx for calling our attention to the relationship between sugar and gold. Allow I have traded sugar futures quite successfully in the past, I never realized the correlation. Eye-ball checking my log-term charts, I see a general correlation from 1983 through 1993 ) . And they indeed ran in close tandem during the big up swing in gold in early 1993. While Gold rose from $331 to $410 ( +24% ) in about 5 months ( April 2 to August 2 ) , Sugar soared from 8.0 to 13.25 cents ( +66% ) in about 4 months ( February to May ) . Again sugar led the advance.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:37
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER: We are at a very low tide point right now, not only on Long Island Sound ( we are at the clean end ) . I will be out for several hours. Catch you all later.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:36
Scotty silver and film>(silver and film): - bw........I agree with your view on digital cameras and the silver market. I just don't see a rush to buy an $800 camera and leaving film by the wayside. As someone else put it so well, for every techno-geek who not only understands the technology AND shells out the bucks for the camera AND has the PC infrastructure to support it; there will be 100 folks like my mom who will buy a $5 camera and drop it by the 1 hour developer.
Did you say maybe in 10 years? Isn't that what they said 10 years ago? I have a couple 100 oz silver bars that are coming up on their 10th anniversary. I have yet to see a price rise to where I can make a decent profit. The only reason I don't sell it and move on to something else is I like to remind myself that sometimes not all the investments go your way. Or the way of the experts of the day.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:26
Donald @Home>(@Home): - VRONSKY: Here is another one for Gazeta Mercantil
http://www.gazeta.com.br/ - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:25
Skylark @>(@): - The CB's hold about 1/3 of above ground supply. The vast remainder is in private hands and a considerable portion of this must be in coins or in jewelry, but there also must be a very large amount in commercial or investment hands to justify the enormous LBMA daily turnover. Yet no attention is given to this private investment stock on the influence of price. I read of price being driven by CB and speculative selling, but nothing in regard to the impact of private investors buying or selling their private stock. Is there a statistical base for the amount of gold held in bar-form by investors. Can anyone explain why this private stock should not have more influence on price than CB stock or speculative selling.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:23
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Q/. What do you do when the markets are closed?
A/. You go Internet Gambling like me and win US$200 playing blackjack.
Not bad for a risk of US$40, whilst in Australia playing at Las Vegas. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:15
nomercy vronsky>(vronsky): - Here's the link to the Gazeta ( just press cancel a few times, when prompt for user & password ) .
http://200.246.213.8/interno/finmeri.htm#not5 - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:11
nomercy Russia-Yelstin>(Russia-Yelstin): - Russia's woes continue as they wrestle to convert their economic system...
There is no need to be afraid, he said. Bankruptcy is
not death for an enterprise but primarily a mechanism for replacing ineffective management.
http://www.spb.ru/times/current/yeltsin-slams.html - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:07
panda @>(@): - The battle of words starts. It's not my fault. It was the dog that ate my homework!
Mahathir blames George Soros for attack on ringgit
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/26/z0000_z00_1.html
`He ( Soros ) was also known as the man who...tried to use his financial clout in the United States to...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/26/z0009_1.html - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:04
vronsky Gazeta Mercantil>(Gazeta Mercantil): - Nomercy: Would you please tell us the URL of the Brazilian News site. Thx
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:04
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Gold opened up around $325.00 on friday just like it should have. As I reported on Thursday night the drop below 325.00 to 324.00 was more of a manipulation than anything and the market being bigger than any one person corrected itself. The trader in question seems to have been around for awhile, as everyone I talk to knows him but for what ever reason hasn't been on the floor since I got there. This was the first time anything like that happened. As far as the integrety of COMEX I wouldn't worry. Traders were very prepared for any repeat of Thursday's action on the close Friday ( This was the reason there was NO sell off on the close! ) and I have a feeling the next time he tries it people are going to buy gold from him at 324.0 and then the next trade will be back at 325.00 bid!
The market is very confussed and both the long and shorts are somewhat scared. Expect more volitility this week as both the longs and shorts press there case and both have big well financed traders behind them. The market is bigger than any one entity and the market shall move to true value where ever that shall be. Personnally I'm long Dec calls and I'm scared too, but to be short here would be even more scary.
That's all I have for now, again my e-mail address is changing from
au_usa@hotmail.com
to
auag@hotmail.com - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:04
Bridge Barrons>(Barrons): -
Barrons is now a fee based subscription, bundled with WSJ for $49/yr. Two week free trial. Comments? - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 10:02
jfkjkfja fieq rwer[q arowe[jr-97rrerwe90uqiq>(fieq rwer[q arowe[jr-97rrerwe90uqiq): - Nomercy
I sometimes wonder who these politicians think they are talking to; if it's the voters they are wasting everyone's time, if it's the hedgers,scared money or speculators it's a waste of their time. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:52
nomercy Exchange crisis in Thailand is over>(Exchange crisis in Thailand is over): - From a Brazilian paper, Gazeta Mercantil Newspaper
Thailand's Vice Minister, delivers a whole load during his visit to Brazil.
Exchange crisis in Thailand is over, says Assistant Foreign Minister
BRASÍLIA, 07/25/97 - The exchange crisis in Thailand has ended and there is no risk of a new attack on the local currency, the
baht, said Pitak Intrawityanut, Vice Minister of Foreign Relations of Thailand. The official is currently on a visit to Brazil. ( SB )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:49
Mike Sheller @ Donald>(@ Donald): - DONALD: While I must admit that if put up against the wall with a mutual fund portfolio to my head I would have to say that my bet is on INflation rather than DEflation, your arguments for DEflation this morning ( and all the time ) are very cogent and comprehensive. It must be the salutory vapors off the Long Island Sound.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:45
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Mike Sheller - Thank You for your profound insight.Happy Trails
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:44
Mike Sheller @the charts under Blue Skies>(@the charts under Blue Skies): - With October Platinum neatly thru400-410 congestion, we go to 435 before next resistance. Sugar, however, is a very interesting clue for gold here. Longterm charts will disclose to the observant that sugar and gold invariably move together. If sugar is torpid but gold is bulling, sugar will follow down the line, and vice versa. The sweet stuff is now in a clearly beautiful up pattern, and it must be surmised that gold cannot be too far behind.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:32
aurophile c>(c): - Nomercy: Bank Negara was to currencies what the central bank of Brasil was to gold. Whenever gold would drop $2 to $3 from 1994-97 and i would ask my trading contacts who was selling, the answer was always The
Brasilian. There may be some truth to the Malaysian PM's suspicions, but more likely it is simply the overextended growth and building craze which weakened the ringgit.
My guess is that there are many other central banks like Brasil who remain quite short in the gold market in their continuing efforts to be a profit center for their goverments. They may think they are trading down the slope of the bear market, but in effect they are net short in size. Just as the currency chickens are coming home to roost, so too will the golden ones when someone gets a little bit of a handle on them and starts to run the shorts. Ah, there will be joy at Kitco.... - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:21
nomercy donald>(donald): - Excellent article on the reason of the baht devaluation & continued expected weakness ( talking about fudged economic numbers )
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970726001405053&top=rel&template=related.htx&maxfieldsize=4028&PrevID=19970726001405050//&PrevTop=mar//&PrevTemp=Default.htx//&PrevMFS=2236// - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:16
Front Schippi>(Schippi): - Schippi:
Your chat with PNEUMA off-line is just the thing I would have wanted to see ON-LINE. Can you re-post your discusions please?
TTFN - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:11
nomercy donald>(donald): - What goes around comes around, comments about Malasia's bank role in their currency raids in early 90's
The market
knows that
they were big
speculators of
currencies,
mainly G7
[Group of
Seven]
currencies
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970726001405050&top=mar&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=2236 - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:10
Skylark @>(@): - Milhouse: Thanks for the reply, I recognize the difference in standards. That is why I am reluctant to invest in mines where I do not get all the necessary information. In addition, obviously, there is more than costs to consider when investing in a mining company. Quality and time-length of reserves, new production on stream, exploration potential, cash-flow and the like are all obviously important and may distinguish why one miner has a substantially higher valuation than another. But even at this, Barrick does enjoy a super-rich valuation, even by NA standards. Perhaps because of this, funds are not carrying it as much as they used to in their portfolio and are switching to Newmont and others. But Barrick is still a quality house, has excellent cash flow, a safe hedge position, new mines in progress and a healthy appetite for acquisitions, which lends itself to a secure LT gold investment. The street values it accordingly.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 09:09
aurophile c>(c): - Donald,Milhouse: The deflation argument always requires an external event trigger it, whereas the inflation argument is a logical and natural outcome of previous actions. The deflationists are always awaiting a Credit Anstalt or the collapse of a currency or economy to spread system wide, world wide. Or a collapse of confidence as in a presidential scandal or great corruption being uncovered.
Inflation is the outcome of currency debasement and easy money and is as predictable as night and day. Part of the current problem is that we focus on the actions of the Federal Reserve when in fact they are no longer the main engine of credit and money. That function has been usurped by the market through all the fabulous new financing schemes.
Deflation is always possible of being triggered by adverse events during tight money regimes such as existed from the 18th century bubble bursting until 1933. When money flows freely and has no value anchor, there can be no deflation, only inexorable inflation which ebbs and flows a bit. The ebbing we have experienced from 1981 to 1993. The inflation horse was brought to a trot from a gallop. It's itching to run.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 08:57
nomercy Donald>(Donald): - Re Currencies. I think you'll find this article of interest
Asia's bankers bolster
defences
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970726001405039&top=biz&template=Default.htx&maxfieldsize=3841 - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 08:49
nomercy donald>(donald): - good morning...re Asia
Aside the currencies devaluations taking place, what do you make of China-Us posturing re Taiwan
I've been following stoties published in the South China morning Post and they, daily have stories relating to military activities, their buildup, Taiwan etc. Below is a sample ( link ) relating to these reports.
With China taking more of centre stage, as an economic power, and now militarily, what do you envision occurring given that their trade surplus with the US keeps on growing and with the annexation of Hong Kong, they probably hold more US Debt than any other country ( not sure of the numbers ) .
This has the making of a different cold war with a twist. Malasia's has recently pointed their finger toward the west ( Soros ) but implying that others had given the green light to these currency speculators destabilize the Asean developing economies.
Is it possible that Malasia's accusations are true? And for what purpose? How would the others gain?
It is certain a scenario, that deserves more attention that is being given ( perhaps not imminent, as we are in Phase l, but as it unravels... ) Gold is certain to benefit from ANY possible scenario, other than the status quo.
Your comments are valued.
http://www.scmp.com/news/template/templates.idc?artid=19970611022435045&top=rel&template=archived.htx&maxfieldsize=2341&PrevID=19970726024530055//&PrevTop=china//&PrevTemp=Default.htx//&PrevMFS=1150//
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 08:23
George Cole musings>(musings): - Wizard: You make some very significant points that support my contention that big trend changes are due very soon. I would add the following:
Why does the gold sector appear to be bottoming despite a booming stock market, a strong dollar, and an unprecedented propaganda barrage pronouncing it dead and buried?
I view the inflation/deflation debate as interesting, but not that germane for gold investors. Once the current financial and economic paradigm is broken -- regardless of cause and direction -- gold will begin an unprecedented bull run. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 08:16
Milhouse @ABX>(@ABX): -
Skylark - re your post to John Disney on Barrick. Thanks for the info. One of the big problems in comparing the reported costs per ounce between NA, RSA and Aust is the differing standards which are used. Australia's largest gold mining company, Normandy Mining, recently reported cash costs of US$240 per ounce for the June quarter. However, the reported cost per ounce using North American standards would be US$215.
The thing which is difficult for me to grasp is the share market valuation of ABX. If this company was Australian and was listed on the ASX, with everything else being equal, it would be selling at around $10 per share.
Regards, Milhouse
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 08:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MILHOUSE: When it will happen is the key question. I have been predicting this event for so long that I am ashamed of myself. The end requires fear somewhere in the world so great that it telegraphs a warning to everyone that the party is over. That could be a stock market crash. But even a crash at this point will only be conceived by most as a buying opportunity. After all, 1987 was an opportunity, Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin said they are ready to keep it going. President Clinton said we are going to keep prosperity around for a long time to balance the budget etc. The next dip of greater than 10% will not be a buying opportunity in my opinion. If we had a 30% dip I could see my way to going long stocks for the very short term, quickly taking even small profits.
I used to look at M2 divided by the Monetary Base, for a ratio which was a great measure of leverage in the system. That ratio failed me in 1989 when Soviet Russia collapsed and US currency began circulating freely in Eastrn Europe. As of Dec 31, 1994 that amounted to $233 billion by Fed estimates. Now it is greater, no one knows how much. So I don't think the M2/MB ratio is valid anymore.
I have fallen back to the Dow/Gold ratio for a clue. It shows fear and greed without the need to account for inflation. It is too much to expect anyone to pick the exact date. You can only say to yourself that stocks and paper assets have had a 17 year run. Adjusted for inflation as measured by gold we are not yet back to 1966 but we are close. The risk at this point vs the reward in paper assets is too great for me. I will stick with silver, gold and cash. There are plenty of stocks to short and every once in a while a small short in a Dell or a Compaq should pay off. Even though they are great companies the prices are outrageous. The Rydex Ursa will not bring you any margin calls so I am using that too. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 07:27
Skylark @>(@): - JOHN DISNEY: I appreciate your many informative posts on RSA mining costs, and in return, I am responding to your request for Barrick.s missing profits.
In 1996 Barrick's Cash Operating Cost/oz of production was $193US ( now substantially less, its principal US property at 156/oz ) . If one adds on all other costs except depreciation, corporate G&A, exploration, interest, and write offs, operating cost was 220/oz. Add to that Depreciation at 58/oz, Corporate Administration at 10/oz, Exploration at 21/oz, Interest at 3/oz and Exploration Write Off at 14/oz- it comes to 326/oz for all costs before income taxes. Net Profits of 0.60/sh. Cash Operating Costs means: All site costs for mining ( excluding deferred stripping costs ) processing and administrative but are exclusive of royalties, production taxes, depreciation, reclamation, financing costs, capital costs and exploration.
I know little about RSA miners and only that which I read in the media which reports RSA costs are the highest in the world, except for Australia recently due to currency adjustments. And the reason purportedly is due to the deep mines with water and heat to contend with as well as on-going capital expenditures. Moreover, I continue to read how RSA will suffer because of mine closures if the gold price does not respond and how production has fallen off due to mine closures due to high costs. Some of the major mining houses have announced mine closures or expected closures. And I have recently seen the very sharp drop in price the last few months in such stocks as Buffels, Harmony, and Durban Deep. Do the costs that you recently posted include all costs exclusive of taxes, or just cash costs. What costs, if any, are omitted.
It would appear No. Am. Miners spend more on exploration to promote growth than RSA miners, which may account for the absorbtion of profits that you were searching for. These exploration activities are one reason given for their higher valuation, and apparently why Ashanti claims it should be distinguished from other African Miners and afforded a higher valuation based on No. Am. standards.
As to whether one should invest in NA or RSA miners, although earnings and dividends are important as you have stressed, personally, I pay more attention to cash flow and what the company is doing with the cash to promote growth. I know RSA miners promote dividends and that European investors expect dividends, but that is not why I invest in stocks. Of course, I will be the first to admit, that my views are not necessarily right. It seems RSA miners are more of a play on gold as a commodity, and an interesting speculation on price in view of the powerful leverage they provide.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 07:26
Milhouse @Depression>(@Depression): -
Donald - I forgot to mention that the reason I cited the % of the workforce involved in agriculture as an important difference between the 1930's and now is that the Great Depression was amplified by a terrible drought throughout the Mid West which effectively made 25% of the total workforce unemployed.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 07:21
Milhouse @Deflation>(@Deflation): -
Donald - I'd be interested to know your thinking on when this deflation will take place. I see the credit expansion ultimately ending in some form of economic collapse, either massive deflation brought on by widespread debt defaults or hyper-inflation which renders the national currency useless as money. However, I don't think this will occur for several years. In the mean time it is possible for the politicians and their CBs to postpone this reckoning through the injection of liquidity.
The expansion in the money supply that we are witnessing at the moment is the result of extensive bank lending to the private sector. As you point out, this increase can only be sustained through the continued escalation of the price of assets which are used to secure the bank loans. However, should this source of supply dry up due to, for example, a significant down turn in the US stock market, then the Fed can take over and flood the system with dollars. This would probably be done via the Fed's re-purchase and monetisation of Government debt .
Regards, Milhouse
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 07:15
TED @Donald>(@Donald): - Donald: My roots are not far away....Bronxville New York....and the fog is lifting and I'm off to get my weekly fix...The business section of the Globe And Mail ( Toronto ) ...Barrons ( in print ) not available here...
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:55
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: I live in Eastern Connecticut on Long Island Sound. Barron's was not in at 6:20. I will try again in a half hour.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:49
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MILHOUSE: I think the agricultural sector is 2% here in the US. I don't get the connection to the depression though. I expect that this will be a white collar event in the US relative to the losses in assets. The blue collar will suffer but they have less to lose and great skills for survival that white collar lacks. I concede that the monetary system is different. There is no gold backing to double. They can print at will. But collateral will still be required to borrow. That requires unencumbered assets. The generation that is in charge now has been fighting an inflation battle. They have skillfully borrowed to the max and stayed fully leveraged so they can rollover their loans, tap the inflated equity they generated, and maxxed out again, and again, and again. Deflation, which absolutely no one expects, will wipe out the equity this time. Rollovers will not happen. Only those who are FULLY out of debt can be expected to recover for the next cycle. It will be worse than the 30's because of the monetary system changes you cite. The generals of this generation are still fighting the last war, inflation. With the collapse of Russia that war ended because the justification for the inflation was to fight Communisim. We don't need to do that now. Now our former military enemy is a low cost producer. He has turned into an economic enemy, not in my eyes but in the eyes of our government and our industrial leaders. They are mobilizing for a new war by making the western world a low cost competitor. Thus we have downsizing and all the situations cited by Mr. Roach. The result of that mobilization will be DEFLATION.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:42
TED @Zinc>(@Zinc): - Zinc hit a seven year high yesterday in london....Mornin Mike S....
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:37
Mike Sheller (we are watching)>((we are watching)): - SCHIPPI: Stop asking so many questions about the Fed. We wouldn't want to lose you ( ;- ) )
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:34
Mike Sheller second things second>(second things second): - WSF, GFD: I too have pondered over what gives with Alan Greenspan in my many years of Greenspan-watching. I realize it is unfair to judge motivations in another person, but I suspect this is a classic case of a person with a vision and an ideology who accepted public life, and the compromises every adult must make therein, to contribute as much balance as he could to the socioeconomic equation. The way to do that is to be a PART of the system, rather than a strident purist OUTSIDE the system. Naturally, over time, one takes on some of the qualities of the system and the many other, less ideologically pure folk one has to interact with. They don't call it politics for nothing. Perhaps in some important crisis, with too much to lose on a single move, he will one day be forced to clearly proclaim, in the end, like a character in an Ayn Rand novel, which side he is on. Actually, he has always, diplomatically and properly, made his views known in testimony before our elected representatives. Many are just too dense to understand what the hell he's talking about. I read Atlas Shrugged a long time ago, so I don't remember Robert Statler, but I am sure Ayn Rand accounted for what may be happening to AG in one of her novels. Alas, we are all human. What would WE do in such a situation? I believe that in the end the man has done us all a great service, and has done the best job he could within this system.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:29
TED @Donald>(@Donald): - Mornin Donald!...Tryin ta rub it in...eh...Actually it's supposed to clear this morning and we really need rain as it hasn't rained in about a month...but since we have a house guest comming Sunday night,the forcast is for showers Monday-Wednesday....TYPICAL!...Where do you live..I see we have ANOTHER common interest as Barrons is Saturday to me...
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:25
Milhouse @Great Depression>(@Great Depression): -
Donald - you are probably correct regarding your analysis of the effects of increasing the money supply in the 1930's via the devaluation of the dollar relative to gold. However, I do not believe that it is valid to compare the current situation with 1920s and 30s. Two important differences are : 1 ) The monetary system was diametrically opposite to what we have now, and 2 ) 40% of the US civil workforce was employed in agriculture in the 1930s ( I'm not sure what the current percentage is, but it would certainly be less than 3% ) .
Because the differences are so great an argument could be made that the end result of a credit expansion today will in fact be the exact opposite of what happened in the 1930s.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:23
Mike Sheller first things first>(first things first): - POORBOYS: Only the body turns to dust. The Self is immortal. The body is a vehicle we take on each time we return to this dream. We have made it mortal and vulnerable by our thoughts. We will all find the way back someday, each in their own time. Do not become a gambler. Become a finder and walker of the Way. It is good to be overwhelmed spiritually by this great mystery once and a while. Otherwise we would continue as fools in our foolish conceits. The Great Investor once said What does it profit a man if he gains the world, but loses his soul?
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 06:04
Donald @Home>(@Home): - TED: I envied you your good weather and sunny day kayak trip. All that time we had rain and drizzle. You deserve the fog you are getting. It is going to be perfect here, not a cloud in the sky, low humidity, and I am off on my bike to pick up Barron's if it is in yet.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 05:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NJ: You and Mr. Roach are correct. The politicians will win and the money supply will be pumped up accordingly as cited in the two paragraphs you clipped.
My point is that it does not matter. Deflation will happen anyway. The money they print will not be a problem for thirty years, in 2025, or beyond. To make my point I cite 1933. The politicians won then and the Fed printed accordingly. Gold was changed from $20 to $35 allowing the Monetary Base to nearly DOUBLE. That is big time printing of money. It did not matter to the economy. It stayed in the tank. The new money piled up in the banks. The banks were afraid to lend it to those who needed it the most. Those who didn't need it were terrified to borrow. Most of those who had good credit, had sidestepped the stock market crash and could have borrowed money to buy whole city blocks for 10c on the dollar were frozen by fear. The money that was printed in 1933 STAYED in the banks until the early sixties. It was only then that the generation who had been most affected by the depression had passed away. The new generation had no fears like their parents. It was the new generation who tapped the bank reserves and started exponential credit creation that peaked in 1980 with the inflationary spike that brought gold to $850. That generation is now your government and your captains of industry. Deflation and depression is something they have never experienced. They do not understand it or fear it because it never happened to them. They are the geniuses who have brought us to this New Era. We'll see.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 05:46
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good morning ALL...Current conditions: Heavy FOG.....
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 05:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - OLIVER: The Business Week article focuses on the state of the ECONOMY. It ignores the state of the FINANCIAL markets. Shortly, the weakness in financials will collapse the economy. Watch Korea this next week for clues. Watch all of Asia for currency failures. Failures there will infect the system worldwide.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 03:40
the wizard @ oz>(@ oz): - why does the S&P 500 look so tired & exhausted
or is it just me?
why does the weekly chart, 30-yr. bond....stuck, below previous highs
conflict with the weekly S&P 500, so dramatically ?
why is a most basic 'commodity' -- sugar
breaking-out, and -up, resiliently ?
why is the 'dog' of foreign currencies, the 'DM'
arresting it's descent ?
is something about the U.S. dollar
severly.....'bent' ?!
what if the 'Dow' -- the 'Holy Cow'
is about to be 'milked'
for the last time ?
sublime - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 03:31
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for nomercy
Loved the article on ERPM. This profitable mine has lost money
in every year that I have info on back to 1991 ( except for a brief
flutter in 1994 ) . The article also fails to mention that the mine
commenced in 1908 - ( I hope I live that long ) . It's about the size of
Buffels -300,000 oz/year. It should have been closed several years
ago, but I believe it has one or two profitable shafts which another
comapany will probably buy out. - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 01:41
RT @always bullish(what's a bear?)>(@always bullish(what's a bear?)): - Monthly long term XAU w/trendlines.....take your pick; I like red!
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 01:37
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - PNEUMA.....Enjoyed your post. I have a Web Page
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
that uses regression analysis to switch between funds.
found it interesting that the Air Transportation
sector was #1 for week after week, but as of today
fell off the list. Which seems to confirm your result.
Do you feel that the buying activity you track has
an advantage over tracking the same sector by price ( NAV ) ?
Also do you find the weighted moving average is more
sensitive than the exponential moving average?
The above Email works, if you would like to chat offline.
Best Regards.....Schippi - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 00:43
PNEUMA MWYCORP@EROLS.COM>(MWYCORP@EROLS.COM): - As a matter of discussion I would like to offer the following factors as a basis for accepting that a significant trading bottom is in place in the precious metals group.
1. On 6-19 CDE formed a classic hammer pattern with a significant volume climax.
2. Many gold stocks are in the process of forming hammers for the month of July. This pattern on a monthly basis is nearly fool proof for intermediate bottoms.
3. The lows established during the last of June have held very strongly, and while this range may have the lower end retested there is widespread similarity among the North Americans ( the SA stocks have not shown the same strength ) .
4. I track a 26 week average of actual buying activity within the major industry groups ( easily obtained from Barron's ) . After using a number of methods, I have found an approach which accurately tracks the turning points of net flows into and out of each sector. The precious metal group turned positive the last week in June.
Very often this tracking indicator will turn positive well before the market will show obvious indications of a trend for an industry. As an example, the current move in the airline sector was shown by this indicator at least two months before the last move up was apparent ( this sector turned negative again last week after 3 months of positive market flow ) .
5. There is a weighted moving average indicator that was published by Donaghue in the late 80's ( apparently long forgotten ) . This moving average utilizes a 26 week weighted average of all national money market rates compiled by Donaghue ( again in Barron's ) . I began using this average in 1988 and it has been 100% accurate in tracking the interest rate trend since that year. The weighting smooths out the month to month corrections, and even in 1990-1991 when everyone was sure that a trend change was in place ( to higher rates ) this indicator remained positive ( indicating that the low range would hold ) .
This indicator went negative on May 5.
Discussion appreciated.
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 00:12
aurophile c>(c): - ACW!APH! Wow! Like the good old days. I wonder why
- Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 00:08
ACW //////>(//////): - Aurophile:
Regards the increasing prices of stuff, in Dallas office rents have increased 20%.
The value of office buildings have skyrocketed.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business-nf/biz31.htm - Date: Sat Jul 26 1997 00:03
APH ----------------->(-----------------): - Savage - Yes, GCZ7 at 326, that price should be good until at Wed. next week.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 23:48
aurophile b>(b): - Donald:
Thanks for the Steve Roach piece. He was so much into the standard inflation/bond think that I had stopped reading him. Not out of disrepect, just out of weariness.
As many know, I am a long wave geek. In WW II the US was under wage/price controls and none now will have argued with that posture although many did at the time. My feeling is that WW II was a disinflationary time for that reason in the same sense that the 1990's have been. Control. Overarching institutional conrol. Feds then, corporations now. Both have been crusades in a sense, during which labor was constrained for the greater good. The safeguarding of the republic, if you will.
Meanwhile in both times the monetary policy was quite expansive. We may think that fiscal policy has been restrictive in our own day--as compared to the expense of WW II-- but has it really been so? Not really. The on-budget deficit is declining during the past two years, but the fiscal flood seems less severe only because of that, not when looking at the total bill for the 1980's and 1990's. And I will not discuss the off-budget mess.
My point is that in many ways the US economy is in much the same position as in 1944-45. Control, understood in many ways, has restrained labor and prices in the battle to achieve important national goals. But just as the English worker rejected Churchill after the war and just as the American workers rejected restraint after the war was won, so too are we about to enter upon a new road. The comfortable concept of complacent and terrified workers, about to be reduced to Korean or Malaysian standards, is coming to an end. So too is the idea of ever slower growing price levels. The pantries and warehouses are nearly bare in many industrial commodities. The just-in-time and do-it-tomorrow mentality amongst both purchasers and sellers is winding down. Prices have not been declining. They have been going up.But that fact has been obscured ACTIVELY and even pro-actively by both capital and government as both have reached to extend their financial strengths.
I have thought for some time that we were in a period similar to WW II in the financial sense that interest rates were bottoming after the world wide recession/depression of the 1980's and that prices have also bottomed, first in 1986 and now later in 1996-97. This is very much like the pattern of the 1930's and early 1940's.
In essence what we have seen is that both corporations AND government have strengthened their balance sheets at the expense of the individual. This is all well and good, but in any society it is not sustainable, least of all in a democracy. While some have benefitted from the rise of stock markets, this is no different from the 500+% increase in equity markets from 1932 to 1946. Some have benefitted, but many have not. Clinton, the stealth Republican, has presided over this wondrous event by making the right noises for the benefit of the underclass while assisting in the enrichment of the upperclass. I have no problem with this, not only because I have done very well thank you, but because the capital structure of ths country was in a difficult position in the 1970's and needed renewal for the long term survival of the economy. It has regenerated beyond the hopes and dreams of most of us.
But...........it is in the process of cycling again. It is time to mark down the financial assets and mark up the physical assets. The easy ( or hard, depending upon viewpoint ) times are done. Now comes the payback. The enormous money flows will switch from paper to real assets as demand for stuff and demand for wages increases. It needn't all fly at once. It could be a very gradual process. But it is and will be changing, and most will still be braying about disinflation when it is really inflation that will be the concern. In this sense the Fed is anachronistic. they have been bleating about inflation for years when none was to be seen. My guess is that they will begin to worry that pressures in the economny will lead to deflation. This is at least how they will cover their real tracks as the electorate begins to clamor for higher wages. ( And this may be the reason for the current disinformation campaign regarding deflation. ) What usuallly happens politically in this emerging period is that the authorities begin to try to loosen monetary policy to accomodate the worker/voters without damping economic growth. In the process they worsen the inflationary trends already starting.
These are the implications I see in the events that Steve Roach details. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 23:43
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - On the way home from work, I heard on a Christian station
( Chuck Misler ) state:
1 ) The Federal Reserve act ( 1913 ) was unconstitutional.
2 ) The Federal reserve is not federal. ( But private )
3 ) the Federal reserve is not a reserve.
Every politician that asked for an audit of the
Federal Reserve, disappeared, usually in a plane crash!
Anyone care to comment on this?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 23:18
ark salted@core.bre>(salted@core.bre): - Ok I'll ask the night owls as I got no response from the day shift.
BRU GOLD ( ^bgold ) closed 490.74 around 10:40 am. A +4.33 or .89% about
the same close as spot gold here. Is this correct?
Can BGOLD be used as a hint of the next day's price here in the U.S.?
If not what is the symbol for London gold? - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 23:14
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz): - EBN is noted for having the wrong price data on occasion. I just E-Mailed my ISP. I can't get in to the EBN site from home, but I have no problems from work. I just love this technology! NOT! Good night all....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 23:02
JIN PAUL...WRONG PRICE!>(PAUL...WRONG PRICE!): - Paul,
I think abn gave a wrong price!i'm still trading at 326.25 per oz! ( oriental price sat at 11.02 am singapore time ) .
rgds - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:56
panda @>(@): - Thirty year bond chart. Auroelf ( ? ) I re-drew the lines for you. :- )
With regards to this inflation issue, it seems that most are basking in the glow of 'low' inflation without asking, why is inflation so low? The answer seems to be cheap ( as in low price ) imported goods. This is aided and abetted by currency games. This will end badly.
Byron -- When you mentioned the margin requirment changes, it caused me to check those pesky Schwab folks and my account there. I have not received any E-mail or telephone calls from them regarding margin rule changes. I do know that there is a class action suit against Schwab regarding their third market dealings. It seems that they 'kept' a little for themselves. So much for those 'price' improvements.
Now, if we could get a nice twenty Dollar pop in gold... Then I could move all of my account out of Schwabee.....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:46
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - 19:03 originally posted on SI GoldDigger by Searle. Some discussion followed.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:45
Savage ]]]]]>(]]]]]): - APH: Did you really mean Dec @ 326?....Good to hear from you. WDL: Can you say exogenous?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:35
Milhouse @Home>(@Home): -
Following is yet another article pronouncing the death of gold. With such negative sentiment abounding it is getting becoming more and more likely that July 7 saw the bottom.
http://www.australian.aust.com/business/personal/personal.htm
Regards, Milhouse
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:17
Oliver @DON'T WORRY, BE BULLISH>(@DON'T WORRY, BE BULLISH): - Here is some stuff for the Contrarians.
We have to check both sides of the coin...
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/31/b353847.htm
Oliver - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:09
Aussie Weenie Wacker with stubbie and racist attitude in hand>(with stubbie and racist attitude in hand): - Der! What happened?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 22:09
NJ Cotest>(Cotest): - Donald :
Thanks for the Roach article. I have taken the liberty of reprinting the two concluding paragraphs. I have a comment to make, which is that in the event of a dispute between the Central Banks and the politicians of a country, the politicans are sure to win. Reflationary policies are therefore around the corner, starting with Germany and then the rest of Europe.
The day will come, however, when the medicine starts to work and real economic revival will begin to absorb this excess liquidity. As interest rates rise in response, the liquidity pump can only slow. And that's when frothy financial markets will face their sternest test.
But if the monetary policy remedy does not work, the onus of resolution could shift from central banks to populist and opportunistic politicians. Measured policy responses may give way to the far more destructive remedies of protectionism and reflationary fiscal and monetary policies. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:53
Amnesty @the cellar>(@the cellar): - Kiwi, I congratulate you and your fellow countrymen on a job well done
with negotiations with the BRA. You certainly jumped in where fools ( read
Aussie politicians ) fear to tread. My My My are not the Aussies looking
a bit fornicated at the moment. Anyhow all the best in your endeavours
with PNG and perhaps Kiwi miners will have great fortune in their up
coming ventures on PNG. I say lad, good stuff all round! - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:47
Oliver @Central Banks and gold >(@Central Banks and gold ): - Selby,
Thank you very much for your very very instructive site at 19:03
Oliver - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:44
Poorboys Another@planet>(Another@planet): - Mooney-Glad To see Your Still Alive? You Should Post more Often.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:44
Paul (Where's BT now)>((Where's BT now)): - Does anyone know why ABN and EBN show gold down $7.50 and silver down .
07? Is this some kind of weekend misprint? - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:38
Donald @Home>(@Home): - This from Manila. Investors afraid of whole Asia region
http://web3.asia1.com.sg/bizworld/Fri/TopStories/headline.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:36
Poorboys Crust@oftime>(Crust@oftime): - Mike Sheller-Today I felt the universe: It was death & love & more than the millions of miles of love that the world would ever know.Oh Bless God why do I feel this way ? Is God upon me or is fate the wheeler of time?Do I turn to dust? Do I become a GAMBLER OF THE ODDS OF TIME? In Hell shall we flourish for greed sublime?Oh God give me some time.Happy Trails.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:19
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Twenty+ days old but a very good and timely read.
Stephen Roach: Angst in global village
Originally published: THURSDAY JULY 3 1997
Workers worldwide are reacting against harsh corporate
restructuring and economic austerity
The policies of austerity are on their way out. That's the message of the
political upheaval of the 1990s that has shaken the US, Japan, Canada,
Britain and - most recently - France. In all cases, the electoral revolt has its
roots in the angst of hard-pressed workers. Voters are rebelling against
two over-arching forces: corporate restructuring and the anti-inflationary
zeal behind monetary and fiscal austerity.
Reeling from the impact of these forces, workers are demanding relief.
Until now, elected leaders have done little to assuage their concerns. But
that could well be about to change. If it does, it could seriously disrupt
world financial markets.
The restructuring dynamic was inevitable. As regulation gave way to
deregulation and privatisation, and cross-border trade and foreign direct
investment took off, the net result was an extraordinary increase in global
competition. The demise of communism and the resulting entry of nearly
2bn inhabitants from China and the former Soviet Union into the
free-market system has upped the competitive ante all the more.
In response, once-bloated corporate bureaucracies are being disbanded,
setting in motion a process of global rationalisation. The resulting wave of
corporate restructuring has stretched the fabric of the social contract that
had long held in check the power struggle between workers, managers and
elected politicians. The worker has lost out.
At the same time, policymakers have taken dead aim at inflation. After the
great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, monetary and fiscal
discipline became the mantra of the past decade. In 1997, it is tempting to
declare victory.
Inflation has receded to its lowest rate in a generation, not only in the US,
Japan and Germany, but also in such countries as Brazil, Italy, and China -
countries long noted for extremely high inflation.
Such success has not come without cost. Courtesy of the new-found
religion of monetary and fiscal restraint, price stability has gone hand in
hand with decidedly sub-par economic growth. The worker has again lost
out.
Restructuring and austerity are powerful enough in themselves to have had
a profound impact on the economy and on financial markets. But the
combination of these two forces may well be the defining factor of a new
tension in the global economy.
Workers who have been displaced - or frightened - by corporate
restructuring have not seen their fortunes improved by sluggish growth.
This has given rise to a new class of victims, the structurally unemployed
who have little hope of regaining their former standard of living. But
survivors are also concerned about their lagging rewards, or fearful that
they may be next to suffer a downsizing.
No nation in the industrial world has been spared from these
developments. In countries with rigid labour markets, the result has been
soaring unemployment, as in Germany, or massive under-employment, as
in Japan. In nations with more flexible labour markets such as the US there
has been a stagnation of real wages and a dramatic worsening in the
equality of income distribution.
I have long been a believer in what might be called the Newtonian
principles of macro change: that every powerful trend creates an equally
powerful counter-trend. Hence, I now worry about the possibility of a
worker backlash that would see economic power shift from capital back to
labour.
For the moment, the hard-pressed American worker has been mollified by
cyclical revival. But the US is still ripe for backlash. Business profits are
surging and the rate of return on corporate capital is at a 29-year high, yet
real wages have been virtually stagnant for nearly 15 years. Labour is
surely on the verge of clamouring for a larger slice of the pie.
For the moment, the backlash has been manifested in demands for job
security. The perils of downsizing and outsourcing have moved to the top
of the agenda in several recent US collective-bargaining disputes.
By contrast, European workers have drawn a line in the sand. Here as well
concerns are focused on job security. This is also true of recent outbreaks
of worker unrest in South Korea and Argentina. But whether the backlash
shows up in the form of real wage increases or resistance to layoffs and
outsourcing, the ultimate macro impact is largely the same: businesses will
no longer have carte blanche to pursue the aggressive cost-cutting that has
helped them boost profit margins. As the ability to contain labour costs
recedes, the rewards to capital will begin to sag.
For the time being, complacent investors are ignoring the omens. Their
reaction is understandable, as the twin forces of restructuring and policy
austerity have created an extraordinarily positive climate for financial
markets. Investors have been rewarded beyond their wildest dreams.
In the US, corporate restructuring has been a big element in boosting
equity prices. And policy austerity has led to a sustained disinflation that
has reduced interest rates and prompted a rise in the bond markets. This
outstanding performance in the financial markets has become increasingly
global. The assumption that European companies will restructure has
driven European equity markets higher over the past year.
But this investor paradise will be at risk if the Newtonian counter-trend
begins to play out. Central banks, such as those of Japan and Germany,
are attempting to ease the pain of austerity by providing excess liquidity
through keeping real short-term interest rates artificially low. Given a
generally sluggish growth climate in the world's leading industrial
economies, this has frothed up financial markets all the more.
The day will come, however, when the medicine starts to work and real
economic revival will begin to absorb this excess liquidity. As interest rates
rise in response, the liquidity pump can only slow. And that's when frothy
financial markets will face their sternest test.
But if the monetary policy remedy does not work, the onus of resolution
could shift from central banks to populist and opportunistic politicians.
Measured policy responses may give way to the far more destructive
remedies of protectionism and reflationary fiscal and monetary policies.
Like it not, the angst of the worker challenges the very foundations of this
glorious bull market. Little wonder that investors have been steadfast in
their denial of even the slightest possibility of the ascendancy of labour.
Trapped in their comfort zones, few will see it coming.
The author is chief economist and director of global economics at
Morgan Stanley. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 21:06
aurophile a>(a): - APH: I too say welcome back! Ya, big stuff coming down ( or going up ) .
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:58
WDL @comments>(@comments): - APH...welcome back..I enjoy all the posts on this Kitco site..yet I find
yours among the most astute. I also own significant shares of ABX..
nearly had heart failure when Aussies dumped tons of gold on the
market...ABX slipped below 20 ( a long term support level dating back to
the early 90s ) ..I'm really not sure I should hold on..my personal belief is that it's going to take a spike in inflation ( to my way of thinking...not on the horizon ) or a catastrophic event ( read: war or belligerency ) to give
a boost to the gold market.
I'm very tempted by the oil stocks...although they do seem somewhat
overpriced...just got news that Texaco's splitting 2-for-1 and increasing
their dividend. I can't see oil stocks losing their value over the next
several years, possibly decades.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:54
Scotty today's dumb question>(today's dumb question): - To anyone......here's my dumb question of the week. If you check out the Bema site
http://www.bema.com/news/jul23-97.html
You will see that they have hedged their forward sales at $407 per oz!! The question, who is the buyer at those prices? Speculators or end users? Or......
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:53
Scotty the big secret revealed>(the big secret revealed): - Ted....... thanks for the kind words on the back-to-back posts! Actually, I compose them offline with my word processor as I read through the Kitco message traffic. That way, I can respond real-time to a post I find interesting. Then when I log back onto the internet, I slam-dunk the posts all at once. I find my surfing here is very irregular during the day/week/month. One of these days I'm gonna have a job where I can surf from work!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - CMAX: Gracias. Hace cinquenta anos desde aprendo espanol, uso vez a vez pero olvido muchas de las palabras.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:47
Cmax Translation for Nomercy.....Oh my.....forgot to paste in the rest of it.>(Translation for Nomercy.....Oh my.....forgot to paste in the rest of it.): - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:15
nomercy ( donald ) :
mucho gracias senor ( sp ) . Perhaps we have somebody in our group that
can tranlate this article ( sounds like the're scared that Brazil would face a
recession, due to their currency devaluation )
Temor en la UIA por una posible
recesión en Brasil
Los industriales saben que es improbable que se
devalúe el real, pero están preocupados por una
eventual invasión de productos brasileños en el
país...................................
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
nomercy...... the article translates as follows:
Fear in the UIA for a possible recession in Brazil.
The industrialists know that is improbable that the *real* will be devalued, but they ( Argentinians ) are worried about an eventual invasion of brazilian products into the country ( Argentina ) .
As with most spanish texts, the exact meaning is a contradiction in terms.........i.e. “improbable devaluation” and “eventual invasion of products” ( due to a devaluation ) . The rest of the article deals with the effects of a 25% devaluation of the Brazilian money, and how that would cause an immediate recession in Argentina as it’s industries would be put out of work due to unfair competition because there are no trade vbarriers ( tariffs ) on goods for countries within the Mercosur pact ( NAFTA, South Inc. ) Hmmmm.... now where have we heard this scenario before. Undercurrent ( which between the lines is always more important in Spanish than what is actually said ) is that the industrialists will
“urge” their socialist goverment into restructuring the Mercosur ( i.e., apply tarrifs to protect the factories ) .
My note: remember that Brazil is a true “island” economy.....it needs no one.
The rest is rhetoric, and the reassurance that the “person in charge” is preparing “THE TRIGGER” for a plan in case of a Brazilian devaluation.
My thoughts: Mercosur has different partners with completly different interests, objectives, and requirements, which in any business are the ingredients for failure.
Mercosur, as with the EMU and NAFTA, are all doomed to failure.
Saludos,
Cmax
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:38
Byron @ Closing Time>(@ Closing Time): - Library is closing is 20 minutes. I'll check back tomorrow morning for any responses. Good night.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:22
Cmax translation for Donald>(translation for Donald): - This was your article, nomercy:
Temor en la UIA por una posible
recesión en Brasil
Los industriales saben que es improbable que se
devalúe el real, pero están preocupados por una
eventual invasión de productos brasileños en el
país.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
nomercy...... the article translates as follows:
Fear in the UIA for a possible recession in Brazil.
The industrialists know that is improbable that the *real* will be devalued, but they ( Argentinians ) are worried about an eventual invasion of brazilian products into the country ( Argentina ) .
As with most spanish texts, the exact meaning is a contradiction in terms.........i.e. “improbable devaluation” and “eventual invasion of products” ( due to a devaluation ) . It's nothing new, and has already happened many times in the past, and in BOTH directions.
Saludos,
Cmax
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:12
Donald @Home>(@Home): - AUROPHILE: The Schwab case sticks in my mind for some reason. As I recall he may have gone to court with the defense that it was their fault, they should have known better than to let me get in that deep I don't recall the outcome.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:12
Byron @ The Past>(@ The Past): - Aurophile: Did you say Sutter Street? Any chance you knew a Mr. Ralph H. Burr who had an office at 110 Sutter for 40 years. He was a financial consultant, among many other things. : )
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:09
Byron @ A Vist To The Family>(@ A Vist To The Family): - Donald: Yes, I recall reading a story in the Wall Street Journal about how Schwaab had to send some executives to Asia ( was it Taiwan? ) to try to collect some monies from the patriarch of the family.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:05
aurophile />(/): - Donald: In 1987 my office was in the financial district of San Francisco ( Sutter Street ) and I saw PSE option traders who completely blew out and left millons in debts. I doubt they were clearing through Schwab, but still it was not a pretty sight.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 20:01
aurophile .>(.): - Byron: Initial margin on spoos also went up 25% last week. Margins on commodity futurtes are pretty mathematical though. But increased margins DO tend to decrease overall positions for speculators large or small as opposed to commercials.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:57
Donald @Home>(@Home): - BYRON, APH: I recall in 1987 that they had one large loss from one individual who wrote naked options and stiffed them for quite a bit. I don't think it was a widespread problem. If other brokers are doing the same, or if their bankers, either on their own or due to pressure from the Fed, are changing margin requirements without making a public announcement, that is big news. The Fed could be afraid that an official order would start a selling panic and they prefer an orderly decline. Just guessing.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:56
Byron @Timing is Everything (Well Almost)>(@Timing is Everything (Well Almost)): - It is interesting regarding the timing of these changes. Now with many gold company shares at new multiey year lows and many of the share prices under $10.00 and thus great bargin it has now become more difficult for the small investor to step up to the plate and buy. I wonder if the margin requirments for the big funds have changed As you can see I am not a happy camper tonight.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:49
Byron @ Burnt:>(@ Burnt:): - APH: That was one of the comments, more or less, that was stated to me. Something about having to take losses in the past. Interesting that you mentioned 1987. Again, I interepret these changes as a signal of a TOP. ( IMHO )
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:44
Elliot Ness @the corner of Cermak & Cicero Ave.>(@the corner of Cermak & Cicero Ave.): - University of North Carolina Medical School computer services 919-966-1325. Ask for site administrator Scott Green
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:43
APH --------------------->(---------------------): - Bryon - Two weeks ago I recieved a message from Schwab that margin was going from 50% to 35%. I called the desk and asked what was going on. They told me The company got burned in 1987 and ended up in the collection business, they didn't want to get into that again.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:38
Byron As A Follow Up:>(As A Follow Up:): - Follwing up my prior posting, does anyone interepret these changes in margin requirements for shares under $10.00 as a signal from Wall Street that the market is about to top out? And what evey happen to the idea of helping the small investor
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:36
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com): - Savage - I've been on vacation for a couple of weeks. Looking back July 7 looks like capitulation on the downside. The funds are holding up, not great but firm. The Russian thing didn't kill the market which is good news. Looks like at least a short term low. The XAU has some resistance between 97-98, if it closes above 100 we should see 110-111. Aug. Gold needs to get though 332 for a move to 350 then 360. Next week I'd buy Dec Gold at 326 with with a 2 or 3 dollar stop with a potential 360. ABX is holding long term support like a champ except for the July 7 wash out the chart looks good. Right now I still have my positions in ABX and XAU and looking for another low risk entry into gold futures.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:35
kiwi JIN>(JIN): - Yes very interesting. I wonder if SORROWS is happy with himself now, he's managed to polarise almost an entire fragmented continent against him and his ilk and single-handedly usher in the New World Order of East vs West.
He'd better have his gold longs on because the Dragons breath is gonna torch his testicles if his shorts are too short. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:32
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - I've just spent 40 plus minutes on the phone with a Schwaab broker and two margin people at Schwaab. Apparently effective today, the margin requirements for shares under $10.00 has changed. Drastically, in my opinion. Because of these changes I found that I have been forced to sell shares to meet these new margin requirements. ( which again became effective today ) . One moment I find that my Buying Power was in good shape they next everything has changes.... My question, are there any others out there that have Schaab margin account with share prices under $10.00 that have been receiving unexpected phone calls because of these changes at Schwaab... It seems that the bottom line is don't buy stocks which are priced under $10.00. This is my interpretation of the events which are taking place. I would appreciate any feedback from others who find themselves in this situation. Thanks.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold ratio 24.85 tonight. It is absolutely astounding that the Dow was up 4 out of 5 trading days, hitting a NEW HIGH on each one, and adding more than 200 points for the week. That would seem to be a stock owners dream week but the Dow/Gold ratio remained below its previous high set on July 11th at 25.22. It tells me that 25 ounces of gold are more desireable than 30 shares of stock in the subliminal mind of the stock buying public. Obviously, I can not claim that we have seen the top of the stock bull market based upon the results of two weeks. It certainly bolsters my confidence in saying that the top is somewhere very near here. Of course gold could drop more from this point and the ratio would continue to improve in favor of gold if stocks dropped faster and farther.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:30
kiwi nomercy>(nomercy): - as we in New Zealand have known for years the Aussies are none too quick and basically a bunch of convict siblings. I think they may have got a wake up call in Shanghai today or then again maybe they'll side with dollarbill.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 19:03
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - Some contrarian news for the CB conspirators.
http://www.bday.co.za/97/0725/comment/c3.htm - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:49
nomercy RJ>(RJ): - I got this caption from Newsearch
Are they referring to you?
CLOSING N.Y. METALS: BEARS TURN MORE
CAUTIOUS IN GOLD - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:44
nomercy Aussies>(Aussies): - They wanted to reduce rates to stimulate the economy and alievate the growing unemployment, and they can't...they chose to back their currency at the expense of creating jobs...more troubles ahead for them...shouldn't have sold their gold!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/nat/newsnat-25jul1997-55.htm
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:41
Goldbug23 from the peanut gallery>(from the peanut gallery): - GFD: My take on Greenspan is the same as Richard Russell's of Dow Theory Letters. He loves the limelight and will do whatever it takes to stay in it, even compromise what he really believes as you surmise. And yes, in the end the intstitutions will get him. That said, he has been a better than average Fed Chairperson.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:33
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - to all- the following article is another just more proof that we must be close to a bottom in gold. In 1993 the top fund, not just the top gold fund, the THE TOP FUND was Lexington Strategic Gold Fund and the reason was their holdings of Western Areas. Then Western areas sold most of their gold forward for 8 years, then I sold the stock [got my own fund], now maybe it is time to buy it back?
My goood friend Brett Kibble also is director of Randgold, a top SA mining house.
25 July 1997
WESTERN AREAS
Calling gold's bottom?
Closing much of the hedge may have contributed to the
bounce in bullion
JCI flagship mine Western Areas, which shook the market in
January 1995 when it sold forward all expected production
until March 2004, has bought back heavily.
The mine sold forward 7,3moz gold at between US$380/oz
and $390/oz but has now bought back 1,6moz at about
$320/oz. Western Areas' activities may have helped trigger the
recent jump in the price back above $320/oz. Gold reached
$328/oz on Tuesday.
Chairman Brett Kebble says restructuring the hedge leaves the
same protection as before on any downside in the gold price
but gives a 70% exposure to any upside.
Previously Western Areas was 100% hedged but after this it
will only be 30% hedged. It will get 70% of the benefit of
improved gold prices which we expect will result from rising
dollar gold prices and a resumption in the weakening of the
rand against the dollar, he says.
Kebble adds the restructuring also has a positive effect on
Western Areas' cash position. It gets rid of the mine's debt
and the need for medium-term funding for the South Deep
expansion.
In April, JCI management estimated Western Areas could be
about R200m in debt by the end of the calendar year. Kebble
says that's no longer the case.
That must improve the market's assessment of JCI's most
important asset. The success of Western Areas and its South
Deep expansion is fundamental to JCI's plans to restructure.
By: Brendan Ryan
| Top of page |
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:31
nomercy South Africa mining woes>(South Africa mining woes): - Victim of low gold price, once one of the world's largest mine is on the point of closure
July 25, 1997
End looms for
troubled ERPM
Andi Spicer
Mining and Resources Editor
Johannesburg -- ERPM, the troubled mine in the Randgold stable and
once one of the largest and most profitable gold mines in the world, is on
the point of closure, a victim of the low gold price, the company said
yesterday.
While management has made certain proposals to government and
discussions are taking place, there remains a strong possibility of ceasing
operations in the near future, the company said in a cautionary statement
issued yesterday.
It added that shareholders of ERPM are advised that, as a result of the
low gold price and lower than expected underground yields, the company
is operating at a loss with no reasonable possibility of generating profits in
the foreseeable future.
Peter Flack, Randgold's chairman, refused to comment yesterday. The
mine provides jobs for about 6,000 people.
Earlier this month, the Benoni Gold Mining Company, a surface dump
re-treatment company which is a subsidiary of ERPM, said it was closing
almost immediately.
Lionel Hewitt, ERPM's chairman, said then Randgold was reassessing its
involvement with ERPM.
ERPM has now issued four cautionaries recently, and Randgold has
indicated it will not renew its management contract with the mine when it
comes up for renewal.
There are only two ways ERPM can be saved now: either the
government supports the mine financially or there is a substantial fall in
the value of the rand, both of which are unlikely, Emil Morsett, the head
of mining and metals research at Paribas in London, said yesterday.
This is a difficult political decision and, if the government does decide to
support the mine, it would set a precedent for other mines, Morsett said.
Randgold has been reducing its holding in the mine recently to about 1
percent.
In 1989, the government guaranteed loans made to ERPM, which now
means the state is the largest shareholder in the mine.
ERPM had an estimated life of about seven years and produced on
average about eight to nine tons a year, about 15 percent of Randgold's
managed gold production. Randgold ended on the JSE yesterday at
R16,50, up 5c.
Frank Nxumalo reports about 3,000 workers at ERPM allied to the
National Union of Mineworkers ( NUM ) were facing retrenchment,
Madoda Vilakazi, the NUM regional co-ordinator, said yesterday.
Vilakazi said the NUM's proposals for a way forward was for the
company to meet the union's demand for a minimum wage of R1,000 a
month.
The union was also pinning its hopes on a possible government subsidy of
R2 million a month after it met Penuell Maduna, the mineral and energy
affairs minister, this week. We will be meeting company management
on Monday. We do
hope they will come with something better, because up to now they have
been pleading poverty all the way, Vilakazi said. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:21
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - trader ed: Thank you for the acronym site, it is priceless and the humor of it all is marvelous! CUL ;- )
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:20
JIN news from shanghai.........WHAT A CAPITALIST MONEY MEETING IN THE HALF OPEN CHINESES COMMUNIST COUNTRY!LET SEE THE COMING FUTURE!>(news from shanghai.........WHAT A CAPITALIST MONEY MEETING IN THE HALF OPEN CHINESES COMMUNIST COUNTRY!LET SEE THE COMING FUTURE!): - tO ALL,
All the JUMPING DRAGONS gathered together in THE LAND OF DRANGON!tHE FUTURE is look more exciting a head!try this: http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/biz/072597/biz9_26932.html
bye - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Thailand defaults on rubber deal. Pope denies involvement.
http://www.loxinfo.co.th/~bday/ - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:15
nomercy donald>(donald): - mucho gracias senor ( sp ) . Perhaps we have somebody in our group that can tranlate this article ( sounds like the're scared that Brazil would face a recession, due to their currency devaluation )
Temor en la UIA por una posible
recesión en Brasil
Los industriales saben que es improbable que se
devalúe el real, pero están preocupados por una
eventual invasión de productos brasileños en el
país.
Tras los sacudones en las bolsas de San Pablo yRío de Janeiro, los industriales
argentinos agrupados en la UIA se pusieron en guardia y desde esta semana
comenzaron a desplegar una estrategia que tiene por objetivo lograr que las
autoridades locales protejan al sector ante un eventual cambio en las reglas de
juego del mayor socio del Mercosur.
Los empresarios industriales no le temen sólo a una posible devaluación, sino
también a lo que Javier Tizado -el vicepresidente ejecutivo del poderoso grupo
Techint- denominó como una lluvia de exportaciones brasileñas en nuestro país,
como consecuencia de la modificación en los términos del intercambio.
José Ignacio de Mendiguren, el secretario de la UIA se lo explicó a
LaNacion:Después de la devaluación puede venir una recesión, las empresas
brasileñas van a estar con exceso de stock y entonces se va a dar vuelta el
tubo, que hoy estaba inclinado hacia Brasil, esto podría ser mortal para sectores
como los textiles, indicó.
Cristiano Rattazzi, presidente de Fiat Auto, también confirmó a La Nación que el
mayor temor era el de una recesión.
La industria automotriz sería una de las más perjudicadas, completó.
Es que hoy, para los empresarios agrupados en la central fabril, el temor ya dejó
de ser el efecto caipiri nha, o la desventaja que pueda ocasionar un tipo de
cambio que encarezca los productos argentinos, sino la posible avalancha de
mercadería desde el socio mayor, desencadenadas por una recesión en el
mercado interno brasileño.
El problema es que con 25 por ciento de devaluación, sin haber aranceles entre
la Argentina y Brasil la situación de competencia básicamente en las industrias se
distorsiona tremendamente, explicó anteayer Javier Tizado.
Instalando un tema difícil
Aunque nunca lo van a admitir públicamente los industriales saben que, en el
fondo, están pidiendo un poco de proteccionismo para sus empresas.
Por eso su plan es instalar el debate y comenzar un sutil trabajo de persuasión en
los más altos niveles de la conducción económica y la opinión pública.
El plan de la UIA quedó definido en la última reunión de Comité Ejecutivo de
esta semana, donde se resolvió plantearle a Roque Fernández los temores por la
situación en Brasil.
La cita con el jefe de Economía se concretó el miércoles, y también participaron
Carlos Rodríguez y el secretario de Industria, Alieto Guadagni.
Por la UIA estuvieron Claudio Sebastiani, Alberto Alvarez Gaiani, Juan Groppo
Vilar, José Mendiguren y Sergio Einaudi.
Uno de los asistentes a esa reunión aseguró que el Ministro de Economía se
mostró más receptivo que en otras ocasiones a los reclamos industriales y,
además, aseguró que Roque si bien no lo reconoce ante nosotros, sabe bien que
el real está sobrevaluado y que las exportaciones argentinas dependen mucho de
la relación actual entre el peso y el real.
Segundo paso
El segundo paso se concretó ayer, cuando Claudio Sebastiani, Alberto Alvarez
Gaiani y Mediguren fueron a hablar con el embajador Luiz Felipe Seixas Correas,
que les aseguró que no había que temer por los últimos vaivenes en las bolsas de
Río y San Pablo.
Ahora los industriales se reunirán con sus pares de la Confederación Nacional de
Industrias brasileñas para ponerse al tanto de la situación interna del socio mayor
del bloque.
-¿La Unión Industrial no está pidiendo medidas proteccionistas?, preguntó
LaNacion a Claudio Sebastiani, presidente de la UIA.
-No estamos pidiendo proteccionismo, de ninguna manera_, negó,
previsiblemente el empresario.
Sin embargo, el titular de la UIA admitió que desde hace tiempo que propone
preparar medidas gatillo para el caso de una devaluación u otro tipo de
restricción comercial desde Brasil.
Martín Boerr
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 18:03
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NOMERCY: This from Argentina in Spanish. Two stories of interest. One about Argentines who feel they are going to get some of the Nazi gold in Switzerland. The second story is about fears of a Brazilian devaluation and the flood of cheap Brazilian products that will flood Argentina as a result. They feel it is only a matter of time before it happens....... ( Hope someone will check my translation )
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/97/07/25/index.htm - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:59
Jack Asia and the Western blocks>(Asia and the Western blocks): -
I really appreciate the Asians indicating that they will solve their own problems - I hope they do so.
First it means that they will not owe their souls to the western Banker/Corporate society; and second it means they will be free conditions that taking on deceptive loans will impose on them.
I believe that the entire NAFTA group and the EU are under such rules.
Their politicians, under such cicumstances have their hands tied by this Banking/Corporate power that controls their actions, these are essentially the New Monarch's that rule the western world.
Its essentially freedom to be destroyed. TAI - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:58
VSE @canuck>(@canuck): - The xau may is dragging, but the resource laden VSE was up +5.19 to 806.81 today
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:47
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NOMERCY: I could only find this so far......SÃO PAULO, 07/25/97 - The Band-B concessions are expected to bring in $1.2 billion in foreign
funds in August and will help the government balance its foreign accounts, without causing an impact
on monetary expansion. These funds will help finance the deficit in the government's current
accounts. A spokesman for the Central Bank said that foreign funding is entering Brazil at an
intensive pace, and the country's international reserves rose $2.198 billion in the first 22 days of the
month. Foreign investment funds in June recorded withdrawals amounting to R$ 177 million, down
63.44% compared to the end of May. ( SB ) - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:42
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Shanghai has NO NEWS about the 11 Asian bankers meeting. Is it the Baskerville syndrome? Lead story about Chinese Foreign Exchange trading.
http://www.hongkong-window.com/shanghai/sstr/sst.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:37
trader ed traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com): - For those of you, who like me, are frequently at a loss to interpret some of the acronyms seen here, like IMHO, FWIW and TGIF, try this site:
http://home3.inet.tele.dk/hgaarde/Acronyms.html
If you can't find it here, you may be SOOL. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean industrialists demand government assistance.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0726/m0726b03.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:33
nomercy donald>(donald): - It sounds like its snowballing, it'll be interesting if it spills over to South America...any news links for that part of the world?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:29
nomercy pizzaman>(pizzaman): - I think you'll find Steve Kaplan's site, very helpful re CRB Index,
regarding your second question, I'm not in a position to advise you. ( just the fact that I'm not offering any advise, is a plus to you! )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 17:28
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Korean sources predict full scale currency crisis.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0726/m0726b04.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:58
nomercy Fund Buying propels gold>(Fund Buying propels gold): - New York--Jly 25--COMEX Aug gold settled up $2.70 at $326.50 per ounce after a midday fund buy pushed the contract bursting
through buy stops and sending it higher still. Gold was able to hang onto most of its gains, in sharp contrast to recent sessions in
which the metal climbed in early trade only to take the round trip to its lows. * * *
http://www.cnnfn.com/news/knight_ridder/2333.1.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:54
KJB learner>(learner): - To All: When you have time you might want visit the web site called The Contrarian's View. Not gold specific but interesting take on stock market and economy.
Available at: http://fennel.assumption.edu/view/
The Contrarian's View has been published since July 1986. Its author, Nick Chase, correctly anticipated the 1987 stock-market Crash and 1989 minicrash, and avoided the 1990 and 1994 bear markets ( and bailed out too early, missing the 1995-97 blowoff ) .
If you visit this web page, be sure to read Debt Overhang.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:46
Jack bw>(bw): -
bw: Your ( 11:50 ) was good informative post.
Wonder when investors on WS will realise that silver and some of the silver miners are at bargain prices?
Short time ago, read something about using silver paste ( 90% ) in solar panels.
Bubba and spotted-Al are behind clean air and even I have to agree with that. TEP the utility -their tech division- is considering copper film in such panels. Hope silver gets its fair share of the market.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:37
Byron @ So Much For That:>(@ So Much For That:): - Has anyone noticed that the XAU and HUI Indexes are back at and/or above where they were when the Aussies gold sale story came out. So much for that news/noise. What more can you show me? : )
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:33
Byron @ So Much For That:>(@ So Much For That:): - Has anyone noticed that the XAU and HUI Indexes are back at and/or above when the news of the Aussies gold sales story can out. So much for that story/noise. What more can you show me? : )
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:25
George Cole Ides of August>(Ides of August): - Gold stocks rallied the last 5 minutes, but still did not do well considering $2.70 jump in bullion.
August has frequently witnessed the beginnings of major military and financial debacles. World War 1 began in August 1914. Hitler invaded Poland on September 1, 1939 -- close enough. The stock market peaked in August 1929 and August 1987, and crashed in October of both those years. The Gulf of Tonkin incident that helped get America involved in the Vietnam war occurred in August 1964.
So a major financial trend change next month does have historical precedent. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 16:09
TED @xau>(@xau): - XAU blipped up at the end of the session...up 1.06....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 15:56
Byron @ There Auta Be A Law...>(@ There Auta Be A Law...): - Let's get this boring day over with. The XAU and HUI Indexes are putting me to sleep.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 15:14
GFD Institutional Greenspan>(Institutional Greenspan): - WFS: I think you have to make the distinction between Greenspan the person and Greenspan the Chairman of the Fed. Greenspan the person probably has not changed that much. However, he would have had to accept that as Chairman he would have to reflect institutional attitudes and not personal ones. It is said in recent Business Week articles that he carries a lot of clout in the FOMC - which once you *despin* the message may mean that he is a captive and soon to be sacrificial scapegoat of his institution.
Comments from anyone else out in the peanut gallery - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 15:05
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For Lan Man - For info RSA costs INCLUDE admin costs - They include
everything but capex and tax. If Barrick is put on the same basis as
RSA mines, their cost will be in the same order as dries and maybe higher
than beatrix. ( But that seems like one whale of a lot of admin costs ) - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 15:01
WSF @NC>(@NC): - I have read Atlas Shrugged, and have used it and Greenspan's earlier writings as a basis from which to believe that he wouldn't let things get this 'irrational', unless he has changed A LOT or has been compromised somehow ( by marriage to the media, both figuratively and literally? ) . I did my research ( on Greenspan ) and it has backfired on me....so far.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:59
Savage --->(---): - APH: You still around? Haven't seen a post from you in quite some time. What do you think of last two days action in bullion and XAU?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:39
rob @xau>(@xau): - GVC, perhaps now is the time then to sell puts on the gold stocks rather than bu calls.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:37
Oliver @CB`S or whatever..>(@CB`S or whatever..): - Will they do it again?
At 15:30 est it looks like they will do the same insane trick Glenn reported yesterday.
Oliver - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:36
Bob A to WSF>(to WSF): - D ) He awaits Hillery's instruction
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:34
Rob @greenspan>(@greenspan): - Hello WWC:
If you've ever read Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged the character of Dr. Robert Statler is the equivelent of Greenspan. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:28
WSF @NC>(@NC): - ( Not to scare anyone, but I'm from NC. )
Comments anyone- Given Greenspan's past affiliation with Ayn Rand/Objectivism and his recent actions re: the bubble economy, which is the proper conclusion?
A ) He has abandoned earlier views.
B ) Not A, but he is petrified, walking a tightrope, and doesn't know what to do.
C ) Not A, but sees no conflict between earlier views and today.
I recall an article in Investor's Business Daily around summer 95 which brought this general topic up, and have been trying to figure out the answer since.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:22
Hawk @nest>(@nest): - Bart
Have been here lurking and had occasional posts in the past.
For the past 1 1/2 year on this site and it just keeps getting better.
Sort of reminds me of my family or any family for that matter.
You are a very responsible DAD and rules are very good for your kids.
This site which is great part of our lives provides great knowledge and deserves respect.
Thank you Bart
Hepcat, there are great lessons to learn in life. This one is respect.
Cherokee, talk about chaos!!!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:17
vronsky Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28>(Gold & Silver Future Good - BUT DOW BEAR TO BEGIN JULY 28): - Astrological Investor interviews expert energy & mining industry entrepreneur/astrologer, who foresees Precious Metals Bull, but Wall Street Bear. SEE Astrological Investor:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html -
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:16
vronsky ALL GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM REPORT - GOLDBUGS FEEL LIKE HOLYFIELD'S EAR>(ALL GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM REPORT - GOLDBUGS FEEL LIKE HOLYFIELD'S EAR): - International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines721.html
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:13
Mooney @Floccinaucinihilipilification>(@Floccinaucinihilipilification): - For any who might have been wondering about the meaning of the above word, ( which I used Wednesday in my Ode to Hepcat ) , it is roughly:
The habit of estimating things as worthless and belittling others' achievements. Fliperous: A proud gossip. Keak: to cackle. Pumpkinification: Pompous behaviour or exaggerated praise. Venenate: To poison. ETC. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 14:04
George Cole gscole@ix.netcom.com>(gscole@ix.netcom.com): - August gold up $3.40. If we can hold most of this gain by the close of this FRIDAY so soon after Greenspan's rational exuberance testimony, smart shorts better start running for cover. Demand is catching up to supply and will soon surpass it decisively.
Those of you expecting bullion to lead the stocks on the way up may have a point. The speculative short interest in bullion is much higher than at previous bottoms and this may have changed the dynamics of the gold stock/gold bullion interaction.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:54
Pizza Man NoMercy>(NoMercy): - Just a beginner so please excuse my ignorance, but what is the CRB index?
If you were $13.00 dollars down on the long side, would you hold the line.
Where would you have placed your stops.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WSF: I am not a Registered Advisor so I can't give advise. But you don't seem to need it. KF is a closed end fund is it not? Did you check to see what the premium was, if any, when you shorted? What is the premium/discount now? That could be a problem but it looks to me that the only other thing you need to do is to be patient.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:44
DJ Sigh of relief>(Sigh of relief): - Bart - Hoorah! Good decision.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:44
CC goldbug@ormetal.com>(goldbug@ormetal.com): - GVC: Why do you say that the XAU is still historically overvalued vs bullion ? Do you mean the ratio is still above historic lows. This is a flase measure. The ratio has to expand over the years as the XAU components grow. The acquired more reserves relative to their market caps. The current XAU is as cheap as it was in 92-93 or almost. Look at the valuation of one of its main component, Barrick: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug425.html
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:40
nomercy CRB>(CRB): - CRB over 239 and rallying Au 327
RJ be careful when you hike the skirt, KGB is right behind you - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:17
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com): - To All: Firstly, thank you to everyone who emailed their opinions on hepcat. Although I asked only for messages in support of not preventing hepcat from posting, the vast majority of those who sent me email were not supportive.
If you read the comments here you would probably find about 85% of them express a desire not to have to tolerate a belligerent and disrespectful style of commentary. The key factor in deciding to disable access to any specific individual is not simply that it is the consensus of the majority. More importantly it boils down to business sense.
A lot of effort has been spent trying to attract people to our website. For those who have been here from the start you've seen many changes all of which have been inspired by requests from visitors. When 85% of your regulars are all making the same suggestion, you follow it. When you're providing a service and 85% of your clients are dissatisfied with it, you change what needs to be changed.
By allowing hepcat to continue with antagonizing commentary we run the risk of losing participation from many individuals informed and experienced in precious metals. Restricting access to hepcat means we lose only one.
I've informed hepcat on more than one occasion that his participation is welcome and appreciated here as long as the focus is on the markets and not on the participants. He'll have full access again if he complies or when we install our squelch button, whichever comes first.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:14
nomercy CRB>(CRB): - CRB index now up to 238.76 and rallying, Au 326.60 ( was up to 328 )
Pizzaman, maybe they can TRY to hold gold, but the whole CRB is taking a run at them....if it breaks over 240 and hold we'll have some fun
...stocks are overvalued...the US $ at its peak, inflation around the corner, some exports being hurt by strong US $, IT slowdown ( Microsoft warning ) - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:12
EB or is this a Key reversal...>(or is this a Key reversal...): - We'll have to wait and see...
Jake B. seasonals say sell PL 7/25 and 8/1 and it works 77.8 and 81.5% of the time, respectively...well it hasn't been right 20odd% of the time. Let's fight history! Let's go against the grain! Kitcoites know this well!
away
eb - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 13:05
EB A good cup of coffee, get dressed for work...>(A good cup of coffee, get dressed for work...): - and what's this? Platinum going, going, ?...oh my!
awaaaaaaaay :-D
EB! - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:54
GVC @bullion vs stocks.>(@bullion vs stocks.): - I know George S. Cole doesn't like to see bullion lead the stocks, but that is what I expect until gold breaks up more convincingly. The XAU is still historically overvalued when compared to the bullion price. Also, stock investors are and will be 'skeptical' on any gold rally until major resistance points are taken out. This will put somewhat of a lid on the xau performance relative to bullion in the first stages of any meaningful future rallies.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:48
Pizza Man Shortchanged?>(Shortchanged?): - It appears to me that the shorts are systematically closing out their
positions for GC Q7 after London PM fix is established. That way they
do not give the appearance of any strength in gold to rally. Than
they establish the new shorts driving the price back down.
It seems like this would be a good time for a big time ( BT ) speculator
to exploit this scenario. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:43
EB Quintessential California...not...try...neo-semi-demi-psuedo-California>(Quintessential California...not...try...neo-semi-demi-psuedo-California): - I know California well and I do know that O.C. and quintessential should not be used in the same sentence. ( especially now that the KGB are roosting there ) . I do business up and down the Cal. coast and everytime I must enter the Orange Crush zone I get the heebie-jeebies before too long ( although there is great surf and restaurants ) . RJ, WADR, I think you have been AWAY from Seattle too long and your judgement is getting clouded ( is it the antihistamines? ) from the ( well known and sometimes legendary ) tequila/betty syndrome. Not to worry, take a long weekend and get the HELL OUT OF THERE. Try meandering up the coast ( since you don't own a Porsche or Mercedes ) on you Harley or Hum-Vee or Range-Rover or Beemer or use your buddies Lend Lease Dodge Truck and cover some rough country. Try going inland and up towards the Sierra's ( try your luck at panning for GOLD? ) Go to Yosemite. To the Desert. To the lakes... just GO any point AWAY from O.C. and the boardwalks of semi-demi-naked-nubile-busties... then you can, again, start to see the Quintessential California! The one I know and love. EB's Backyard...the one that shake's like MAD sometimes.
If you need some hot tips ( although being the hip dude that we know you are, you probably don't need them ) to seeing some GOOD Calif. you know where to find me. I'll be...
AWAY!
EB
D.A. - sorry you had to live in Reseda ( went to CSUN? )
Wine comes in at the mouth
and love comes in at the eye
That's all we shall know for truth
before we grow old and die.
Yeats - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:32
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore): - Anyone know how to interpret the ^bgold ( brussels ) index? Is it an
index or the price of spot gold in Belgium franks in their time zone? - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:29
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - Here we go again with spot driving higher at the exact same time as yesterday. Will it hold this time?
Mach - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:21
6pak All is well @ Canada (steady as she goes boys)>(All is well @ Canada (steady as she goes boys)): - July 25 1997
NOT TO Worry, all is well, in Canada, EH!
Bankruptcies: Drop
Retail Sales: Rise
Investment Spending to Rise
Composite Index: Steady
Foreign Investors: Sell
New Home Starts: Drop
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Stats-Review.html
Gold is down, Stocks are up, why be worried, no need to expect bad
happenings. Modern Artificial Control, will see that everyone is safe. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:21
Lurker Outlook>(Outlook): - CUEBALL: Why the change from they to we.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 12:02
GFD Down In The Dirts - Again....>(Down In The Dirts - Again....): - Cueball: I hope I am not being *excessively* cynicial here but the eptitath for GPGI could well be the last paragraph of their notice:
Engelhard West, Inc. has stipulated a minimum shipment quantity which should be below our current daily capacity We are also in the process of moving to expand this capacity in the near future....
The day they are able to meet Englehard's minimum production requirements on a sustained basis will signal a fundamental shift in Gold and PGMS. It will be very interesting to watch. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 11:50
bw Silverless photos:>(Silverless photos:): - Good article on the front page of todays wsj on Kodaks lack of profits on its huge investment in silverless photos. In my opinion very few people who are not professionals will screw around with thousands of dollars of software and hardware for hours or days for a few pictures. Maybe in another ten years ( which is what we were saying ten years ago ) ?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 11:20
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here): - SCOTTY re micturation: he probably means micturition. Webster's says:
Mic`tu*rition ( ? ) , n. [L. micturire to desire to make water, v. desid. fr. mingere, mictum, to make water.] The act of voiding urine; also, a
morbidly frequent passing of the urine, in consequence of disease.
Surprising to find a doctor misspelling a medical term. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 11:13
tom sprynet.com>(sprynet.com): - Missed Jim Rogers on CNBC, but for those interested some of his articles are at http://www.worth.com/articles/PR0.html & http://www.millerfeatures.com/jimroger.html
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 11:12
WSF ...>(...): - Donald- As you seem to follow Asia closely, could you tell what what you think about the Korean Stock Market? I'm short KF @ 21.75, but have no idea to what extent the current price reflects the situation there. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 11:00
Cueball GPGI @ movin on up>(GPGI @ movin on up): - GPGI
24 July 1997
As most of you know, we have been working diligently at the mill to gear up and have our
in-house refinery come on line. This was accomplished on a small scale several weeks ago. Shortly
after that time, we began a few production runs of material. Our assays looked very good and we
decided to forward these platinum group products to a commercial refiner. We were becoming
somewhat concerned as time passed and no word was received. However, late yesterday
afternoon, the reports came back.
I am tremendously proud to notify each and every shareholder of Global Platinum + Gold that
Engelhard West, Inc. has given notice to your Company that they intend to purchase our
product. This most prestigious and reputable domestic refiner appears impressed at the quaity and
purity of material we initially sent to them.
Your Company has demonstrated it can produce a product with which a commercial refiner can
easily work. It is no longer a matter of if we can produce the metals. We have done that
numerous times in the past. We have now proven we can refine a high quality and very pure
product that is of value to extremely reputable domestic refiners.
Engelhard West, Inc. has stipulated a minimum shipment quantity which should be below our
current daily capacity We are also in the process of moving to expand this capacity in the near
future.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 10:57
Bob A to Bill D>(to Bill D): - Vol. has been low,I consider this a turnaround stk that requires the metal to maintain the 400 and 200 price. I've been in and out a couple of times and am now in. Dines likes it , Fid sel am gold owns it and Dizard has me convinced as to the upside of the metals. Just a matter of short time.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 10:44
Roebear @SurfsUP>(@SurfsUP): - For all a new indicator. Going to the surf-sand-sun for awhile to blow out cobwebs and oogle nubile bikinis. Will probably end up exhausted from chasing beach bums away from daughters. Anyway, over the years some catastrophe usually happens while we are at the beach. The last time went to beach for more than a day Iraq invaded Kuwait. So I bought my favorite oil stock, will cash in when get back : ) ) You guys take care of the AU/AG while I'm gone.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 10:41
BillD SWC..a pl and pa stock>(SWC..a pl and pa stock): - Bob A and Panda...it seems to me that this stock has not taken-off .. is a lack of VOLUME. tHE FUNDAMENTALS/TA look good ... just need some buyers!!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 10:26
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - Morning Ted, Cherokee, Panda, Blonde, Reify, Roebear, Aurelf and studs and studdettes too numerous to name. Its indeed Friday. Gold and Silver are going to take a firm stand today. Hopefully the previous sentence was not my joke of the day. The following, in the spirit of bad natured Clinton bashing is.
Former Vice President Quayle, Speaker of the House
Gingrich, and President Clinton are traveling in a car together
in Kansas.
A tornado comes along and whirls them up into the air and
tosses them thousands of yards away. They all fall into a
daze.
When they come to the extract themselves from the vehicle,
they realize they're in the fabled Land of Oz.
They decide to go see the famous Wizard of Oz. The Wizard
is known for granting people their wishes.
Quayle says, I'm going to ask the Wizard for a brain.
Gingrich responds, I'm going to ask the Wizard for a heart.
Clinton speaks up, Where's Dorothy? - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 10:05
gmlfgjad kldjaj[of>(kldjaj[of): - IMO re. your 0438; what is the rain situation in Peru? And what does it imply for the AG. mrkts?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:57
Test Test>(Test): - Testing, please ignore
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:33
TED @jin>(@jin): - Jin: http://msnbc.com/news/CNBC_FRONT.asp But I was referring to watching Jimmy Rogers on CNBC TELEVISION....Do you get CNBC in your area
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:21
Lan Man @Its Overhead>(@Its Overhead): - John Disney: Most goes to Administrative costs.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:15
Lan Man @AULand welfare costs>(@AULand welfare costs): - Skylark: look on the bright side, they can take that *extra* 100 mil and pay those 25K unemployed miners $333. a month.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:15
JIN MORE..>(MORE..): - ted,some more http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9707/24/asean/index.html
Please show me the CNBC adress..thanks - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Bema Gold releases forward sales figures.
http://www.bema.com/news/jul23-97.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:12
TED @jimmyrogers>(@jimmyrogers): - Jimmy Rogers says it's still not the time to buy GOLD,cause of CB sellin and he's waiting for panic to set in before buyin....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:09
JIN NEWS STAND>(NEWS STAND): - to all
anyone interested abt ASIA?TRY THIS:
http://www.asia1.com.sg/news/
BYE - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:09
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good afternoon Jin and thank you for the reply....Monday...eh...Mornin M.Graves...Could Messier really leave us Novice: Still sore...but not bad all things considered....S+P futures up 1.65...Jimmy Rogers on CNBC talkin about spreading Asian currency crisis...He's critical of Malaysian central bank...Jin...
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:08
Donald @Home>(@Home): - These guys are acting just like Americans. Let's study it.
Asian Bankers to `Study' Ways to Boost Currencies
Asian central bankers, reeling from speculative attacks this month that drove down the value of their
currencies, agreed to ``study'' ways to boost their value. The joint statement by central bankers from
11 Asia-Pacific nations, gathering in Shanghai for a regular meeting of the executives of East Asian
and Pacific Central Banks, fell short of promises to intervene directly to prop up neighboring
currencies. The statement was aimed at curbing speculation in Asian currencies by making it more
expensive for investors to bet against a currency, analysts said. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:03
Bob A toBillD>(toBillD): - From what I've read SWC has had a management shakeup. They also sold forward at a not so great price. SWC had a recent high of 25+.I bought more yesterday. How long before it takes off?I don't know but I like the story.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:03
panda @>(@): - Durable goods story;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/25/z0003_2.html
BBML - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:00
JIN TED,I AM SORRY,,,ICAN'T..!>(TED,I AM SORRY,,,ICAN'T..!): - TED,
MORNING!
Its extremely difficult to predict the exact forex rate these days.They moved in very wide range.Full of excitement.Like RJ mentioned before,he can sell short in the morning and get the profit by the close.Its just happened in the currency exchange over here!VERY difficult!You got MORE,LOST OR FLAT!
Its all depand on 3 days meeting at shanghai abt the financial crisis happened now in s.e.asia!IF,they can't find the better solutios at 48 hours,MONDAY SHOULD BE THE BIG DAY......MAY DAY?!WATCH OUT!
tHE MAIN target is THAILAND ( krungthep! ) ,the land of smile...:- ( !!
happy trading!maybe this can help you...
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/wcv4.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 09:00
bw Central Banks:>(Central Banks:): - The worlds central banks have been consistent sellers of their peoples gold for the last ten years. Each year except two they have been net sellers. Which two years did they not sell? In 1987 they about did nothing. In 1988 they bought 242 tons. What happened in 1987 to cause this rare buying of gold? How many hundreds/thousands tons of gold will they be forced to buy/steal the next time it happens ( could be fairly soon ) ?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:58
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Bundesbank to target M3 at 5% growth.
http://www.bundesbank.de/index_e.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:53
panda @>(@): - BillD -- Durable goods come out. BTW, it was double expectations! Bonds went flat! Go figure. I guess everyone really believes that inflation is dead. Consequently, they don't care about the metals! SWC is still a good bet. At some point reality WILL SINK IN! My COMMRADES will see to it! :- ) )
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:51
BillD soring=soaring>(soring=soaring): - Check the PGM's out at
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/curcommt.html?SOURCE=core/dbc - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:50
Skylark @>(@): - http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_45.html
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:49
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley): - Hey Ted ... Thanks for the mail , I was exhausted just reading what you did yesterday , let alone trying it!! It's time to buy the Buffet way....
Templeton is saying the U.S market is way over valued.... Who's right , Grenne or Templeton Time to park the money wagon in parts of the gold index!!! - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:48
BillD Pl and Pa soring>(Pl and Pa soring): - Bob A and Panda...Pl and Pa soring up again this morning. How many days does it have to be up-the-limit before SWC takes off
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:26
Skylark @>(@): - John Disney: You have a problem with Barrick Gold?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:23
panda @>(@): - John Disney -- Thank you!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 08:20
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To panda and others
Anglos results out today
Elandsrand profits after capex 31 cents/share versus
32 last quarter.
Ergo unchanged at 34 cents
Fregold at 50 cents versus 55 last quarter
vaal reefs 364 cents versus 404 last quarter.
Western deep was star of the show with earnings
of 166 versus 128 last quarter.
costs per ounce in $ follows for info
wstern deep - 293
elandsrand - 259
ergo - 275
vaal reefs - 279
freegold - 346
Much of the reduction in costs at WD was due to
treating more high grade mined material and less
low grade surface material.
PS has anybody figured out where the profits
go at Barrick - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:59
Bob A atwork>(atwork): - Latest Nat Rev, column by J. Dizard who has liked plat and pall. for at least 6mths. He still likes it and says stocks of both are empty and unlike in the past users will stockpile both for the future due to lack of reliability of supply. This should keep price up, buy SWC. His column also was bullish on gold.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:57
panda @?!>(@?!): - So let me get this straight; The currency markets are now driving the equities markets, and everybody knows it, and it's O.K. ?
:-0
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/25/lvmhy_rp_1.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:49
panda @PGM news.>(@PGM news.): - More news on the PGM front;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/25/z0000_4.html - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:46
Mike Sheller @The Donald>(@The Donald): - DONALD: You bring up perhaps the most serious point of all for Investors. That is the inversion of major trends can often run a financial lifetime for many people. Getting caught at the top in ANY asset, be it gold, stocks, bonds, RE, etc, can mean a long and painful decline in one's equity stake. Being long at the bottom, when everything looks like sh*t for your asset of choice may in the end turn out to be a wonderful blessing. Buy and hold is a great philosophy when the asset you are buying is genuinely in the crapper. Current evidence points in that direction for gold. As for stocks, since my primary focus is on relatively obscure companies with specific astrological dynamics approaching, my activities are not so much determined by the overall trend of the stock market as much as pertinent time windows in which I live or die. But I'm always on my toes for significant corrections, because once the blood flows the dealers will take 'em all down whenever they get the chance.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:46
Novice @Boom, Bust or ?>(@Boom, Bust or ?): - Mornin, Ted: Nice slow, steady rise in gold since opening in London this a.m. on Bart's 24 hr spot gold chart http:///gold.graph.html Who knows what'll happen when those NYers take over?
How are yer shoulders this fine morn? Bluebird day here too; off across the lake for long w.e. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:36
Mike Sheller @morning>(@morning): - Morning Ted. Grey skies, a few drops, linger from yesterday's rain over Long Island. Weather is cool and almost Fall-like. Enjoy those blue skies Ted!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:34
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER: Did the hummingbird already wink on the July 11th? The gold ratio is moving in favor of gold since that date, in spite of several new highs in the Dow and nervous gold since then. Using round numbers from history we have: 1929 Dow ratio 18, 1932 Dow ratio 1, 1966 Dow ratio 28,
1980 Dow ratio 1, today Dow ratio 25. So it seems we agree there is an inverse correlation at the peaks and the valleys. What we have in between, in my opinion, is guidance on the direction of the next peak or valley. Information that can be used to decide on how many stocks to own or how much gold to own. Sure, it is Market Timing and everybody says you can't do that and make money. I don't have any of that fancy chart software, wish I did, but it tells me that gold is smart. If you look at the stock market, in terms of dollars, inflation fools you. You have no idea how much you are paying for the paper. Only gold tells you the truth. Gold tells me if you bought the Dow in 1966, for the long haul, and need to sell today for retiremment, you ARE STILL NOT EVEN. If you bought the Dow in 1980 with the same intent you are doing just fine now, but you better sell right now and retire dammit! - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:27
tw 2nv>(2nv): - DBC best for quotes @ http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html
these are real time with constant updates! - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:23
TED @JIn>(@JIn): - Asian currencies continued their plung on Wednesday dragged down by the Thai baht...The Malaysian Ringgit was also hit and even the HK dollar took it up the ^%##@%...Jin: Give us an update....please....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:15
TED @newyorker>(@newyorker): - Mornin Mike Sheller! Blue skies here....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:13
TED @panda>(@panda): - Panda:Mornin! Why ya askin ME about EBN...yeah,it's up and runnin...EBN Gold up 1.63...and climbing....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:10
Mike Sheller excuuuuse me>(excuuuuse me): - Re My 6:58 - meant to say fallibile. Or was it nubile?
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:09
panda @>(@): - TED -- What gives with the EBN site? My ISP can't find it! Is the EBN site up? Is my ISP too stupid to find it
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 07:08
Mike Sheller squared>(squared): - DONALD: Re Squares per Frost, etc. Gann used squares as well, as I'm sure you know. He was an astrologer and used the square of time & price. I've looked into that, but must confess I have not devoted as much time to Gann as he deserves. I tend to be down and dirty and use corporate astrology. I look at company horoscopes, and the scope of the NYSE for industrial group activity, etc. I also tend to use only certain of the outer planets for aspect work, because they represent very major long-term or dramatic influences on a company's fortunes, and, hence, stock price. The square that is most important to me now is and has been the 90 degree angle the transiting Uranus has been making to NYSE Venus. This was observed to be a major negative for gold, based on my historic research, and has proven itself out. While I am still looking for that summer rally, this condition will persist, and intensify one last time ( due to retrograde action of Uranus ) in late fall/winter of this year. Thyen the pressure will lift. That does not mean gold will automatically rise at the turn of '98, but the basis for a renewed and sustainable bull trend will be then in place.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 06:58
Mike Sheller (?!!!?)>((?!!!?)): - I would just like to comment on the occasional plaint from posters who take various and sundry Kitcoites ( and, I suspect, others in their lives ) to task for being infallible ( except for RJ, who is my hero ) . There are always the occasional lectures from people who get very upset when somebody, or a group of somebodies, posts advice, or observations, or strategies, that backfire or are proven wrong. They get very upset that such paragons of expertise are misleading the doe-eyed and innocent new lambs that have stumbled vacuously onto the slaughterhouse floor. Well, slipping and sliding in blood, and running off to the corner to puke while keeping your guts from fallinbg out and entangling your feet, is part of the game. There is no winning without losing. And there is no profit without loss. This is a diverse crowd, but I think we all have one thing in common - nobody here WANTS to be wrong, or to lose money. We sometimes just can't help it. That's life. The alternative for everyone is to never open your mouth, and to never go outside your Monk's cell. Been there, Done that. I'll live MY life, thank you, and hope everyone has the pleasure of doing the same for themselves. Now let's get out there and stop whining already.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 06:48
Mike Sheller yawn>(yawn): - DONALD, IDT: Something tells me we've done this before...but here goes. As to inverse relationship of gold & Dow, I have observed that gold moves up in a bull mode toward the last few months to a year of a cyclical bull market in stocks. More often than not the precious metals have a rebirth just before a stock bull peaks. A look at silver versus stocks on long long term charts will illustrate nicely. At MAJOR asset inversions, however ( the last occurred in 1972 ) there is a very obvious inverse relationship relative to new highs, etc. Stocks are prevented from making new highs by their over valuation, and metals catch up and exceed their relative value as hard stuff rises, etc. If this is just another cyclical bull market in stox, and the precious as a class have not yet had their fling , then that might indicate more to go for stox. But if we are approaching the brink of a major asset inversion, then the metals will be unimpressive until the fulcrum, or crossover point of this whole thing is reached. It could happen in the grin of a hummingbird. IMHO, the inversion will be unfolding early in '98, with a precious metals bull emerging that will show significant peaks in 2000, due to exogenous reasons, and again in 2003. So we are talking here about an approaching reversal of major proprtions. The current consensus figures, price patterns, and anecdotal psychology vis a vis gold and the general stock market reflects a CLASSIC divergence of asset classes that has reached an unsustainable extreme. Inherent in every cyclical action is the universe's demand for BALANCE. The pendulum must swing back. I like to have fun with the short term swings in markets, but if someone were to ask me, the really safe and sane way to approach gold now is, and has been, the steady accumulation of bullion in a dollar-cost-averaging mode. That strategy can last until the turn of '98 when a better assessment of where we actually are can be made.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 06:29
TED @goodposts>(@goodposts): - RJ ( 23:01 ) Another gem.....Nailz ( 23:37 ) only ten percent....6pak ( 23:57 ) another informative history lesson....Scotty ( 00:31+00:33 ) Not a bad two minute span....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 06:26
OLD GOLD FOUR SEVEN FIVE>(FOUR SEVEN FIVE): - On thre matter of where will gold be a year from now -- FOUR SEVEN FIVE.
FOUR
SEVEN
FIVE - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 06:08
George Cole counterattack gathering steam>(counterattack gathering steam): - August gold up $1.30 according to DBC. Looks like we are in for an interesting Friday!
Will the shorts be able to slam the yellow as usual at day's end? As Glenn told us yesterday, they will go to almost any length in their fanatical efforts to drive gold down. But they are very vulnerable to the well-financed counterattack now beginning to unfold.
Bottom line -- the base may still need a little more concrete, but the foundation for a major move up has been created.
Big reversals still expected in August with very little warning. Bull to bear for stocks, bear to bull for gold.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 05:51
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Good mornin Auric and other Kitcoites!...Thanks for the site Auric..EBN Gold up 1.23 and Silver up 1 cent despite strong Dollar...Another beautiful sunny day on the North Atlantic...WAKE UP TORT...and give us our daily bread....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 05:17
Auric @home>(@home): -
TED--Try this for info on metal detectors. http://www.detector.com/ Also, there are many magazines on treasure hunting that would have info. Good luck and keep us posted. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 04:38
IMO @ food inflation>(@ food inflation): - Storm Clouds of Inflation
Will El Nino again wreak havoc with food prices? Weather watchers
may want to stock up on soy futures.
By Susan Lee
Once again, the Federal Reserve -- having cast its eye out over the horizon -- has
failed to sight inflationary weather. The great ship of state will remain on course;
the sails do not have to be lowered.
I don't know where, exactly, the Fed was looking, but it sure wasn't Peru. Peru?
Yep. That's where the first sign of a nasty little weather phenom --
and potential inflation -- was sighted last month. It's called El
Niño and it's a warming trend in ocean currents along the eastern
Pacific that appears first in Peru. El Niño -- Spanish for the Christ
child because its impact is most obvious in December -- has been noted as far back
as the late 15th century. It appears seemingly at random ( about every seven years )
and lasts anywhere from 18 months to two years, causing the ocean's temperature
to rise between five and nine degrees Fahrenheit.
But that's just the initial manifestation. This disturbance is apparently the author
of full-scale havoc. During the last bad episode, from 1982 to 1983, El Niño was
blamed for dramatically
horrid weather all over the globe.
Huge storms pounded the eastern Pacific coast from Chile to
Alaska. ( Poor Peru had 13 feet of rain in six months. ) California,
Florida and two-thirds of the southern United States experienced
torrential rains. There also were droughts. Africa, Australia,
Indonesia, the Philippines and India were parched. And there
were cyclones in Tahiti, hurricanes in Hawaii, tornadoes in the
deep southern United States and blizzards in Greece.
Not a pretty picture. In all, $4 billion to $8 billion in damage was
done worldwide. Many grain crops were history and oceanic birds
and fisheries were devastated. It was unpleasant and disruptive,
but the economic consequences were no great shakes.
So where's the inflation in this story? In the El Niño of 1972 to
1973.
Same preface: El Niño appears off the coast of Peru, making the
water too warm for fish, most notably anchovies ( a source of
protein feed ) . Peru happened to have one of the most important
fishing industries in the world, so an instant fishmeal shortage
resulted. At the same time, drought decimated the peanut crop in
West Africa and India, aggravating the scarcity of protein feed.
Not to forget, there was also a worldwide failure of the wheat
crop, most notably in the former Soviet Union.
Hence, demand for agricultural goods surged and, of course,
prices skyrocketed. This situation worked its way up through the
food chain, causing prices for wheat, soy and corn, and then
chicken and beef, to more than double.
This El Niño did have a gigantic economic consequence. In 1973,
the U.S. rate of inflation was 12%.
To be fair, inflation also was pushed by mega-stupidities like a
loose-as-a-goose Federal Reserve and Nixon's elimination of the
gold standard in 1971, as well as the meanness of the Arab
states' trebling of oil prices in 1973. And, to be rigorously fair,
these events may have accounted for most of the run-up in the
rate of inflation.
Nonetheless, El Niño delivered a huge weather shock to a great
chunk of the world's economy that then surfaced as inflation.
Is it about to happen again?
Here's what we know: A strong El Niño effect is associated with
good crops in the United States, but bad crops in other agricultural powerhouses
like Australia, China and Argentina. If there is a global grain shortfall ( and no
anchovies ) , that puts the U.S. farm sector on top. But it also zooms demand and
thus prices for all consumers. And I mean all consumers -- from owners of feed
lots, to bakers of hamburger buns, to once-a-week eaters of Big Macs. And food
inflation is stubborn. One can't just substitute another good for food. ( Hey! I'll skip
the hamburger. Give me an extra Jeep instead . . . )
If food inflation appears, the Fed has two choices: It can accommodate inflation by
pumping out more money ( unlikely ) or it can clamp down by raising interest rates
( likely ) .
Here's what we don't know: How strong the El Niño effect will be.
Some scientists are predicting the worst El Niño in 50 years, but
the accuracy of their forecast can't be judged until this fall. Pretty iffy.
However -- and this is for the strong of stomach -- I will tell you
what one weather scientist told me. Back in 1972, a trader on the
Chicago Merc noted heavy rains in Peru. He bought futures
contracts on soy and made a breathtaking fortune. So the reckless among you might
want to keep an eye on futures for corn, wheat and soy as well as cattle, hogs,
sugar and cocoa. Presumably, so will the Fed.
And if you're eating $10 hamburgers this winter, don't say I didn't
warn you. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 03:21
Of Interest Thanks for on site opinion>(Thanks for on site opinion): -
John Disney: S.A. has always had flair ups, that hurt those who are directly involved, or within range. With all the terrible press over the many years; my impression has been that she runs rings around her neighboors relative to an ordered society. Maybe it's English Law? - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 03:03
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To of interest
Yes new party of Holomisa, Nkabinde, and Meyer has new slant on
democracy. If you beat them in an election, they kill you - wow -
better to lose eh
Before various concerned kitcoites start send me how terrible it
is messages, please realize we are talking about the Natal midlands
where the ANC and the IFP fought for the past umpteen years. Nkabinde
is an ex-ANC warlord who assassinated many of Buthelezi's leaders. However, the Western press ( out to do a number on buthelezi for their own reasons ) never printed anything against the guy. Finally his activities became even too much for the ANC to stomach and he was becoming an embarassment. They recently expelled him from the party so he joined the Holomisa/Meyer group.
Holomisa is Xhosa speaking and from the Transkei in the Eastern Cape.
Meyer is an Afrikaans speaking White guy who quit the Nats. Nkabinde is
an ex-ANC Zulu speaker. Natal is big time Zulu country where the
countryside is mainly IFP and the cities ANC/IFP. Nobody was going to
vote for these guys anyway. Problem is if you beat them, you get whacked.
Interesting eh
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 02:35
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For Panda -
Yes I think Western Deep results are out today along
with the rest of the anglos mines. Ill know when I get
the paper in a few hours. Yes they do post the cost. I
know already that westerns are down to 288 from 313 per
oz prior quarter. They also were hedged forward.
As I said yesterday re Munks claim of 200 cost and
420 hedged making 220 profit per oz produced.
Barrick produces 3 million oz per year, and has
373 million shares out. Thus Munk implies earning per
share of 220 * 3 mill/373 mill = 660/373 = $1.76.
But woops - they only earn 0.4 per share so where
did the other $1.36 go - Ok so Barrick has the worlds
LOWEST cost and the worlds BEST hedge and the worlds
largest UNEXPLAINED expences. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 02:13
Of Interest South Africa>(South Africa): -
News about tribal violence from FT 7/25/97 edition. http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/80802.htm - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 02:05
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - RJ Thanks for the action report and the story. Looking forward to rave reviews of those golden shorts : ) The scenario seems promising for you my friend. My only cause for concern is Why else would the CB of the worlds largest gold producing nation buy the stuff? Could it be something besides a hedge. Ah well, I'm long so probably wishful thinking. Nevertheless, when you hike those skirts...watch your butt.
Wouldn't want to miss chapter three! - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 02:00
Commissar KGB Last RJ Short Story Reed Like Kapitalist Plop, KGB go HAHAHA>(Last RJ Short Story Reed Like Kapitalist Plop, KGB go HAHAHA): -
RJ: Last short story mak KGB roll on floor and Agents vet
pants, women KGB lift skirt to keep dry - no Karburators
vall out.
KGB intellegenze s/expert zay RJ iz zo bizsy vit life
story, he mak no platinum trade for over veek long time.
KGBs'experts zay many vaisted word ( 1829 totall ) make neu
RJ zpeed rekord of 261 word/each day. Ven KGB kompare
vit Zoveit Dummy who mak 300 vord/each day; KGB now know
vhy Orange Kounty Bankrupp go. KGB Banking's/expert zay
Zoviet Idiot run Kounty better and Amerika Zentral Bank,
zay yes to KGB study.
Not to believe RJ hitman story. Rocco no match vor KGB
fireplug guy.
Polize story, big Kapitalist lie. Pipe bomb and drugs
Rocco's spezial businezs skils. Vee kno Rocco vell. Not
to vorry Rocco, KGB won't inform Kapo, but ven you play,
vee play.
TV story is Kapitalist hoax, cute teenage girlz khildren
of KGB guys. Vee alvays kid fireplug about how an ugly
guy kann a beautivul daughta hav. Fireplug like RJ story
about little bird, but not all.
KBG Amerika Operativ never use glock 9mm pistol, vee use
cowboy sex shooters and spray kans, zo vee fit in vit
crazsy people in Amerika.
KGB luv Patton; Stalin zay Kapilalist pigs vat kill him,
luv money more; and love Cold War much better, mak pigs
rich and vorst dan CZAR.
Vit many butterflies KGB avait RJ Kapitalist reply.
COMMISSAR KGB
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 01:43
EB scotty...I have a BIG book...>(scotty...I have a BIG book...): - Micturate - to urinate
away...to micturate
EB - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 01:20
Commissar KGB Last RJ Short Story Reed Like Kapitalist Polp, KGB go HAHAHA>(Last RJ Short Story Reed Like Kapitalist Polp, KGB go HAHAHA): -
RJ: Last short story mak KGB roll on floor and Agents vet pants, women KGB lift skirt to keep dry - no Karburators vall out.
KGB intellegenze s/expert zay RJ iz zo bizsy vit life story, he mak no platinum trade for over veek long time.
KGBs'experts zay many vaisted word ( 1829 totall ) make neu RJ zpeed rekord of 261 word/each day. Ven KGB kompare vit Zoveit Dummy who mak 300 vord/each day; KGB now know vhy Orange Kounty Bankrupp go. KGB Banking's/expert zay Zoviet Idiot run Kounty better and Amerika Zentral Bank, zay yes to KGB study.
Not to believe RJ hitman story. Rocco no match vor KGB fireplug guy.
Polize story, big Kapitalist lie. Pipe bomb and drugs Rocco's spezial businezs skils. Vee kno Rocco vell. Not to vorry Rocco, KGB won't inform Kapo, but ven you play, vee play.
TV story is Kapitalist hoax, cute teenage girlz khildren of KGB guys. Vee alvays kid fireplug about how an ugly guy kann a beautivul daughta hav. Fireplug like RJ story about little bird, but not all.
KBG Amerika Operativ never use glock 9mm pistol, vee use cowboy sex shooters and spray kans, zo vee fit in vit crazsy people in Amerika.
KGB luv Patton; Stalin zay Kapilalist pigs vat kill him, luv money more; and love Cold War much better, mak pigs rich and vorst dan CZAR.
Vit many butterflies KGB avait RJ Kapitalist reply.
COMMISSAR KGB
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:37
Rhyme noofence>(noofence): - Re your number 9
Certainly no offence.The time ,soon ,will come.And we won't piss it
away.Solid advice you've given and experience will show that is wisdom and not poetry that will carry the day. - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:33
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Bart,
OK good buddy. It's time. This site is about gold investing. This site is not about goading or insulting or mine is bigger than yours mentality. I quote hepcat:
[[Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:15
john ( hepcat@med.unc.edu ) :
Gosh, yeah, and then RJ would have no competition. Like that response
( quite long for someone who expresses no interest in dealing with
people who live in the mud ) was a big surprise.
RJ, a little tip for you, good buddy. Aurophile may have groomed you, and
you may think everybody loves you, but you last as long on this
site as you're deemed useful, or as long as people can tolerate
your infallibility. ]]
I am sick and tired of hepcat insulting good and decent people. I'm tired of it, and I'm tired of it right now. His post continues ( after a smattering of gold talk ) :
[[Listen to you. You claim no one can predict the future, with one exception.
The only problem is, you're not the exception, and you're attempting to
eliminate the exception. Oh well, at least your disciples will learn a lot
about micturation.]]
Just for the record, I couldn't find micturation in any of my extensive dictionaries.
Regardless, the time is now. If so required, I'd be happy to backquote all his non-gold inanities and insults within the last couple weeks.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:31
Scotty YGBSM>(YGBSM): - Sattellite......earlier you wrote:
[[When I was younger, I listened to the likes of you people ( Howard Ruff and such ) and lost my entire savings on gold and silver investments.]]
Your first mistake was you indeed listened. Did you not take time to do your own research? Are you blaming your failure to succeed on others? Are you not taking responsibility for your own actions?
When I plunk down 10 grand on a stock or option, I am the one making the decision. No one has a gun to my head. I am sorry to hear that when you lost your savings, there was a gun to your head.
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:30
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Mary-Rose...... you are not the first one to get caught at a bottom with some overpriced shares! But, you probably have the distinct honor of having your own govt do it to you! Hang on to them, they will go up eventually. It may even take a year to get out from under this mess. If it's any consolation, I bought big at $342 thinking, there is no way this thing can go any lower. Of course, I'm in the enviable position that I can hang on to them for the long term. I hope you too, can put this aside and worry about other things!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:28
nailz MY #8 BELOW...>(MY #8 BELOW...): - ALL....... In my #8 below, I certainly did not mean to offend anyone..It should have said care for every dollar, while they look easy today, tomorrow they will be precious....Do not take the theme of easy come, easy go.........BEEN THERE, DONE THAT.....
The prayer was uttered by someone earlier dear Lord please let there be another bull market in the metals. I promise I won't piss it all away this time
I agree wholeheartedly..... - Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:26
leaner reply.6pak>(reply.6pak): - Take back the right to print money from the Establishment!!! Goldbugs Rule!!!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:10
nailz TORTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(TORTURE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!): - TED..........Stop torturing me with your tales of trips to Scaterie...I CAN'T STAND IT !!!!! Check your mailbox.....
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:09
R hyme @thesamething>(@thesamething): - 6Pak
People seem tired of Politics now.I'm wondering if you are saying
that a similar period exists now .Thanks for that excellent post!
- Date: Fri Jul 25 1997 00:01
Rhyme @notknown >(@notknown ): -
This,the gold market,will do what it has ro do in order to shake whoever
it has to before it begins an upmove.One has to hang on at a distance
making sure to keep enough powder dry and yet be in the market for the
move.For sure ,before it's over,it will shake those who are poetic in their assurance of the direction of this market. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:57
6pak Cold War ended @ People tired of politics,etc. as in 1920's>(Cold War ended @ People tired of politics,etc. as in 1920's): - In the 1920's, Canadian women turned away from public causes towards
their private concerns. So did Canadian men.
It was easy to govern Canada between 1926 and 1929. People seemed bored with politics; there had been too much excitement for too long. Now there were other opportunities and interests which shunted politics to the
side: movies, automobiles, songs of the jazz age, *the stock market*, and
now that prohibition had faded in most areas, *the bottle*
Affluence bred contentment, and pride in what Canada had accomplished was reflected in the celebrations of Canada's Diamond Jubilee in 1927.
The contrast was marked with the sombre days a decade before, when casualties in Europe and the conscription crisis at home ended all
celebrations of the nation's Golden Jubilee. In 1927, old-age pensions,
a product of the political bargaining of 1925-6 began.
Sombre days a decade before 1914 to Nov 11,1918 Lest We Forget
WWI 10,000,000 young men killed, 20,000,000 maimed, crippled, burned,
wounded, their youth lost by mutilation. At the same time 13,000,000
civilians died in that great holocaust; their were 10,000,000 refugees,
5,000,000 war widows and 9,000,000 war orphans.
Canadians lost 56,634 killed, 6,347 officers and 143,385 other ranks
were wounded.As the young men of World War I died many thought they were
dying for a great ideal.
USofA, entered the WWI on April 06 1917, After it was all over President
Wilson himself wearily asked an audience on September 05 1919, Is there
any man here or women - let me say is there any child - who does not
know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and
commercial rivalry ?
Then he said explicitly, referring to the war just over, This was a
commercial and industrial war
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:49
RJ Downer Friday. >(Downer Friday. ): - With the market as weak as it is, I don't look for any significant buying tomorrow. If the bears take over, we'll break 320 again. Gonn'a hike the skirt way up tomorrow................
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:41
DJ Peace!>(Peace!): - If you're wondering why this site has been so quiet and peaceful tonight, it's because hepcat is spreading his villainy around in the bars, coins, and stocks chat group. Same old, same old. Oh well, its nice while it lasts.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:37
nailz What Should Happen......>(What Should Happen......): - All...While I am the first to say that the markets do not necessarily have to do what they are supposed to do, here is what should happen. ( You place your bets where you think they should go )
...When gold finds a pleasant trading range close to the low ( if it is now, the range is $314-329 ) , it will trade there for a few weeks or months....Then as the range starts to change, there will be a breakout to the bottomside ( the infamous sharp spike ) of a few dollars ( say $292 ) that will be a sharp and interday low with a close above the range low ( in this case $314 ) and a next day close well above the range high ( in this case $329 ) .....Then about 5 days of big upside.. All the others have their opinions and I will not debate the issue as markets set their own rules...I am only going by 20+ years of experience of doing this and being there for each bottom and top during this time period and still being here to give an opinion with $2 in my pocket to back up my opinion and dry powder to fire at the last rustling of the leaves....My advice still is as it has been all along...
1 ) Get your physical position in order ( paid for and free of debt )
2 ) Get stocks ready for the long haul
3 ) Use gambling money for futures and options and hedges
4 ) Use no butter and egg money for stocks and futures ( if you do not have profits from previous ventures, you need to be physicals only )
5 ) Be prepared to suffer
6 ) Smile and be gracious if you hit a homerun
7 ) Trade all the way up and all the way down...Yes, it will be volitile.. sell on the run ups and buy on the pullbacks...You will make more money playing the volitility than if you hold for the big buck....Do not be afraid to buy and sell...
8 ) Do not piss away you hard made money...You may never have this chance again in your lifetime....
9 ) Send me 10% of your profits... - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:23
bj2 @millenium>(@millenium): - I predict that when we look back at all of the millenium hype, the year 2000 bug will be seen to be one large non event, brought to us by consultants and accounting firms anxious to do year 2000 audits for their clients. Far from being complacent, most firms of any stature whatsover are using the problem as a justification to replace their hodgepodge of old legacy systems with one of the integrated packages, ( SAP,Oracle,JDEdwards, etc ) , which not only do the accounting but also inventory control, invoicing, distribution and everything else from soup to nuts ) Most have specialized versions by industry group ( construction, oil, banking, education, pharmaceutical etc. ) Tens of thousands of companies have moved to these packages in the last 5 to 10 years. Small business replace their PC based systems so often it's unlikely that they will get hung out. Sure some outfit in Northern Saskatewan or South Dakoda is going to miss the boat, but unless a company is run by people that are deaf and blind it'll only be the government that screws it up. By the time the National Inquirer is telling us we have a problem I think we can safely assume that it isn't going to bail us out on our gold investments.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:19
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): -
Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:01
RJ ( KGB Commissar ) :
Is this chapter II of your forth coming novel?
Ps....I like it.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:17
RJ The fun is really starting...........>(The fun is really starting...........): - Roebear - My shorts were already in. As for today, it did look very squirrely on the close. The entire drop happened in the last ten minutes and gold didn’t settle until almost half an hour after the close. Glenn’s explanation seems valid and, lacking specific information yet, I will defer to him as to the reason for the drop. I will know more tomorrow. I’m still under the weather and left the office after the market closed. I did see a report that the Reserve Bank of South Africa was buying gold today. This can only be unwinding of some of their hedge positions, why else would the CB of the worlds largest gold producing nation, buy the stuff? I think $300 is a lock. The failure today was decisive and only lower prices will bring in the longs. I fear silver might share the downside with gold, its failure today was more complete than gold. What did I say Sunday night? There will be some opportunities for day trades this week. Did a few myself. These markets truly get fun when you can sell short and cover the position with profits the same day.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:04
good @spirits>(@spirits): - RJ, you're in good spritis tonight
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 23:01
RJ KGB Commissar>(KGB Commissar): -
Had my feet up on the desk, leaning back in the chair as the sun, shining through the window, warmed my face nearly as much as the drop in gold has warmed my new shorts. Once again, I was chortling at the WSJ and the importance ascribed to the stately words of AG, who imagines himself protector and leader of the Way. And what a wonderful Way it is, but meaningless to those of us with the security only several storage units filled with platinum can bring. All the better that the platinum bore the likeness, stamped in each bar, of Czar Nicholas Roamnov, a hapless soul whose greatest sin was to rub his wealth in the faces of the squalid masses with a bit too much enthusiasm.
Yes, the day was bright, and once again, matched my mood. A hummingbird was hovering outside my office window, nearly motionless except for the blur of wings. I could swear the little guy winked and gave a friendly grin before fluttering to it’s next nectar nirvana. Its a hard thing to do, recognizing the grin of a hummingbird, it takes a keen eye and a sober perspective. It was a gleeful, almost Disneyesque smile on its little tubular proboscis, with an added slyness which seemed imply that it had some secret piece of information from his peculiar hummingbird world that, if only could be taught to mankind, would give greater meaning and understanding to our confusing existence. Or maybe the big bug was simply plastered and bleary eyed after a two day nectar binge that has erased all reason and replaced it with the same vapid grin that all drunks seem to get after slamming down five or six tequila shooters, and right before getting into some really serious drinking.
Screw him, I thought. What does he know about anything? Flittering from blossom to blossom sucking sickly sweet nectar until it’s belly becomes distended and looks more like Ralph Cramdon than the universal symbol of grace and beauty, and then only to micturate to make room for more. I’ve got better things to do than idly muse over avifauna of this ilk.
Preparing once again to jump back in the pits and do some real trading, I spied a vaguely familiar face four floors down and across the street. I grabbed my binoculars - kept close at hand to monitor the raising or lowering of the pretty lasses’ hem lines over the years, after all one must keep abreast of these things. With a start, I realized why this figure was so familiar; when last we met, I left with his wallet, his Rolex ( which actually turn out to be a Romex ) , and a fat envelope stuffed with cash and directions to and enormous horde of 80 year old platinum.
My fine Rooskie friend was with another of his kind, a mean looking fellow built like a fireplug. That his partner was also Russian was evident in the cruelly Slavic features rudely stamped on his face, and the telltale single eyebrow that reached from one side of his head to the other. Hanging off the arms of each of these menacing characters were a couple of blond chippies, with obviously augmented breasts proudly displayed in sweaters at least three sizes to small. The group was rounded off by a fifth member, who I recognized as one of the local property managers who was in charge locating office space for new tenants.
I couldn’t believe my eyes, these clowns were trying to set up shop? Here? On my turf? Ha! Not likely. I called security and asked for Rocco, a brute of a man that looked like a refuge from professional wrestling, and entirely as surly as his name implies. Rocco had no love lost for the Russians and was of the same opinion as Patton, General George S. when he said, we should have fought those bastards in 1945 when we had the army in place to do it.
Yeah, Rocco, RJ here. I’ve got a piece of work for you. His voice came back, like nails thrown up against a corrugated tin shed, You name it, Arj, whatever you need. I told him there were a couple of Russians across the street with two underage hookers and it looks as though they are thinking of moving in to our neighborhood. I let this outrage sink in and waited for Rocco to reach the boiling point. When it came, his voice had a frightening calmness. I know just what to do Mr. R, leave it to me. I settled back in my chair to watch the events unfold, knowing I had set loose a fundamental force of nature that, once unleashed, would move inexorably to its grim conclusion, like a tsunami with a vendetta.
The local TV stations were abuzz this evening with the story of two Russians arrested with three ounces of cocaine, two concealed Glock 9mm handguns, and a pipe bomb. That one of the girls with them when they were arrested was the seventeen year old daughter of a state senator, helped them not in the least. Serves ‘em right, the sons of bitches. They never paid a dime for all that lend lease equipment that did more to win WW II, than any drunken band of Cossacks. This is my back yard and I put out no welcome signs. If you want to play here, be ready to play for keeps. Besides, it wouldn’t do to have these fellows so close. I’m still holding better than three hundred thousand ounces of their platinum and I’ve had it long enough to consider it mine. Yep, just another day in the neighborhood, and tomorrow will be a fine day to count my profits from my gold shorts.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:53
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
Attention all Martians, the above URL is NEW.
PS FSAGX pulls into the lead! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:50
Roebear @>(@): - Hey, you wink too hard and your chin falls off!
!; ) ) AH That's better! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:48
Roebear @combataction>(@combataction): - RJ We have heard from one of our war correspondents ( and thank you Glenn ) , now can we hear from the west coast? Was that you RJ shorting all that yellow, you naughty fellow? !; ) )
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:47
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com): - Panda,
I wonder if some slick lawyer will decide to take Joe to court for professional negligence and failure to fullfill his fiduciary responsibility. It is a common knowledge that year 2000 will bring some serious disruption to world economy and for Joe not to consider this fact in his investment advice is negligent.
Also, what about mutual fund managers? They all will be sued by investors! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:44
Rhyme @the street>(@the street): - 6Pak
Re:your 22:01 posting
The government and various corporate sources are reporting this almost
perfect world scenario whereby profits are up ,inflation is down and
retained earnings are up.Too bad that the news has yet to hit the street
as I'm sure the people there would like to know that they are free
to spend their money ( that they don't have ) ;unless they have plastic.There
are two worlds operating here and it's unlikely that the ones that don't
have are able to support the one's thart do.No inflation IMHO. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:43
panda @>(@): - TED -- If I do that, I will tank the market! :- ) )
Good night! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:42
WDL @ lighter moment>(@ lighter moment): - Kitco has gold down .40; EBN has gold up .48...whom you you believe?
Reminds me of lighter moment...overheard in English class..
Teacher: What does bovine mean? Student: Holy cow, how should
I know? ( Must have been a Phil Rizzuto fan! ) - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:42
panda @>(@): - John Disney -- Does Western Deep report earnings today, ( I mean on Friday your time ) ? In general, do the S.A. mines state their cost of production in their earnings reports?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:41
TED @panda>(@panda): - BuY stox....Goodnight ALL....
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:35
panda @>(@): - Zeke, Cobol -- But Joe Batapatapaglia says the stock boom will go on for several more years! Besides, 2000 is two and a half years away! That's, like forever! :- ) ) And Joe sayz, BUY! :- ) )
( New age, short term thinking ) - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:30
panda @ForEx?>(@ForEx?): -
Microsoft hurt by ForEx turbulance? Nah, it could never happen! Say it isn't so!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/msft_x000_4.html
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:24
Cobol ibm.org.us>(ibm.org.us): - The bug bar
by Susan Adams
HERE ARE THREE things to worry about as the millennium approaches:
• It's going to cost U.S. businesses about $300 billion to reprogram their computers to recognize that the year 2000
is not in fact 1900.
Probably half of the industries with large computer systems won't get the conversion job done by midnight
Dec. 31, 1999. Such a failure could cause massive
disruptions in the economy as of 12:01 a.m. Jan. 1, 2000,
affecting consumers and businesses that may be unable to
get bank balances, hospital records or plane tickets.
• The prospect of this mess has lawyers drooling.
Steven Hock, who heads the 24-lawyer year 2000 team at San Francisco's Thelen, Marrin, Johnson &Bridges, can
smell $1 trillion in legal and liability costs. This thing is
going to be on the same scale litigation wise as the environment, the S&L crisis and asbestos combined, says Hock.
Hear Wesley Pittman, a plaintiff lawyer in Panama City, Fla.: It's the biggest class action I can imagine! He ticks off the potential litigants: burned consumers, customers suing computer vendors, investors launching class action suits over stock market declines stemming from business losses.
Rejoices scorched-earth plaintiff lawyer Melvyn Weiss of
shareholder class action fame: There is plenty of potential
for injury and for litigation.
The only millennium bug lawsuit filed to date has been settled under seal, according to Warren S. Reid, an Encino, Calif. consultant who advised the plaintiff.
That case involved an international magazine publisher that
claimed its outside computer services firm failed to supply
it with an adequately updated software system. The computer company paid more than $4 million to settle.
Where there's business for plaintiff lawyers, there's
business for defense lawyers, too. At least a dozen law
firms, including New York's LeBoeuf, Lamb, Greene &
MacRaeand Cleveland's Arter & Hadden, are already
billing big hours, advising terrified clients about how to
protect themselves.
July 28, 1997 Issue Forbes Inc. 1997
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:19
panda @come'n get it!>(@come'n get it!): - Your platinum is served sir...... :- )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/z0009_116.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:15
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com): - It amazes me that most participants of this forum pay little or no attention to the biggest event which will increase the price of gold and WILL shred the stock market. The Year 2000 problem will have devastating effects on company balance books starting next year. Believe me gentelmen it will affect all of us very soon. Local gold bulls talk very little about it, how then can we expect the bears to talk about it. We should be educating all investors because the problem is inevitable and will occur the latest by January 1, 2000.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:15
panda @?>(@?): - Well, what can I say? Greed comes to the Internet.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0026_y00_1.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:01
6pak Inflation @ Canada you say, could be, eh!>(Inflation @ Canada you say, could be, eh!): - Conference Board of Canada said:
Business faces none of these restraint; profits and retained earnings
are high, equity positions are strong, and business confidence is good,
with interest rates low, businesses are on a spending spree
http://www.canoe.ca/FP/jul24_capitalspe.html
Also,New Brunswick, government is on a spending spree, with tax money.
http://www.canoe.ca/TelegraphJournal/news4.html
The New Brunswick government has loaned Mary Jane Irving-granddaughter
of the late Billionaire K.C.Irving, $20 Million, from government coffers
to build her Master Packaging Box Plant in Dieppe. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 22:01
Granny Turning out the lights>(Turning out the lights): - I just adore all of you who make this site so interesting. Thelma, Emma, and I think it's the best site on the Net. Of course, Thelma's a little on the shy side, and Emma's husband Frank has forbade her to post, so you won't be hearing from them any time soon! But I know I speak for all of us - goodnight, sweet dreams, and may all our kruggies be worth more in the morning!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:53
Skylark @>(@): - BYRON: Thank you for posting the XAU/Gold ratio charts. First time I have seen it charted and it is very helpful.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:36
Donald @Home>(@Home): - A good night joke for you all.
A couple, well into their nineties, stood in court before a judge asking for a divorce. They had been married for seventy-five years.
The judge asked them how long they had been having a problem. They responded that a week after the honeymoon they had each realized that the marriage was a mistake. The judge was astounded Why did you wait until now, seventy-five years later, to get a divorce? Well, your honor, we thought it best to wait until the children were dead
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:27
TED @tort>(@tort): - Am in the midst of a delicate brain transplant...BBL....dude..
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:23
TED @earth>(@earth): - EBN Gold up .48 ( ? ) and Silver down 2 centavos...Roger...over and OUT...
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:20
Skylark home>(home): - DONALD: Thank you for posting the Letter to the FT. Unfortunately, I believe it sets forth in a striking way the case against CB continued ownership of gold reserves. It also probably represents the mindset of a good number of constituents, and why it is hard for a CB currently to justify retaining gold. In today's financial environment. It does indeed sound like like playing Glenn Miller to Techno-eager kids.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Philippines: Falling peso hits San Miguel
THURSDAY JULY 24 1997
By Justin Marozzi
San Miguel, the Philippine food and beverage group, is one of the most
prominent blue-chip losers from the recent depreciation of the peso,
adding to investors' negative sentiment on the group.
The 14 per cent price cut on its top-selling beer announced late last month,
together with the de facto devaluation of the peso two weeks ago, has hit
the group's share price - San Miguel B shares are 22 per cent down from
a month ago.
The group argues that the limited depreciation of the peso - it closed at
28.5 to the dollar yesterday, down 7 per cent from its level before the
central bank surrendered to speculators - will contain the impact on profits.
At PLDT, the former telecoms monopoly, by contrast, a one peso
depreciation translates to an additional net income of 500m pesos
( $17.54m ) .
For every one peso forex decline, there's a little over 100m pesos erosion
at the bottom line, says Mr Albert de Larrazabal, senior vice-president of
treasury at San Miguel. That reflects higher raw materials cost on the
imports side and to some extent also our international operations. As they
are at the loss-making stage, those losses will be correspondingly higher.
Faced with flagging domestic beer sales, the group has thrown itself into an
international expansion programme. Setting up in China was proceeding
according to plan, said Mr de Larrazabal, but problems had been
experienced in Indonesia, related to political unrest earlier in the year.
Imports - of malt, paper, aluminium and soyabean meal for the food
business - are crucial to the group's beer division, which accounts for
about 50 per cent of group sales.
Mr de Larrazabal says that of the group's foreign debt of about $250m, 90
per cent is long term and has not been affected by punitively high interest
rates, which were brought on by the central bank raising its key overnight
borrowing rate to as high as 32 per cent in order to defend the peso
against speculators. Some gains will be made on the group's exports of
coconut oil and enhanced margins overseas, he adds.
Of the blue chips, San Miguel is definitely one of the worst affected by
the slide in the peso, says one analyst. But we don't yet know how much
can be passed on to customers on the food side. Clearly, on the beer side,
the lion's share of the group's business, they have no choice because they
have only just cut prices and so margins will be squeezed.
Paribas Asia Equity is downgrading its 1998 earnings forecast by 8 per
cent to take into account the price cut and a weaker peso.
One indication of fraying tempers caused by a tough domestic beer market
came over the weekend, with the raid by Asia Brewery and police of a
San Miguel beer plant to recover crates and bottles. It claimed they were
being held by San Miguel to stifle competition.
Asia Brewery launched a $4m suit against the group. Not to be outdone,
San Miguel said that it would file a countersuit.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:12
Cueball @full of it .com>(@full of it .com): - http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-15611/reply-18
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:05
Bob @...Glenn's comment on floor trader selling below bid>(@...Glenn's comment on floor trader selling below bid): - A modern financial system relies on fair prices. If COMEX is prepared to publish gold prices with full, true, and plain disclosure it must observe the ask and bid spread and the weight of each side of the bid.
The exchange should monitor any gerrymandering or management of price by sales below bid or purchases above ask at any instance. The securities and futures exchanges and the SEC and FTC have an obligation to investors to secure trust in the market price of securities traded.
Decision support systems can be employed to uncover traders who operate on a pretense of arbitrage but are simply ( as seemingly indicated in Glenn's post ) manipulating price. There is a fine distinction between price management and arbitrage.
The shorts can't make any money fighting the paper BULL run in the world's greatest marketplace so they moved down the street to dump trading tactics on - what appears to be - a loosely audited gold market.
London appears to be a Big Boys club and COMEX appears to play three blind mice while the shorty cats dominate the price action in New York.
The shorts will eventually get squeezed to death or tire of declining profits in the gold market in the absence of major CB dumps and as bottom consolidation forms a firm spring-loaded base to launch price northward.
Cheers - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:05
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Problems mount in Korea:
Borrowing: Korea eases overseas curbs
FRIDAY JULY 25 1997
By John Burton in Seoul
South Korea yesterday eased curbs on overseas corporate borrowing and
injected new funds into the banking system to prevent a credit shortage
and more big bankruptcies, after the near-collapse of the Kia car group.
The moves came as Moody's, the US credit rating agency, indicated it may
downgrade Korea's sovereign rating as it lowered the rating outlook of
four important government banks to negative.
Worries exist that the near-bankruptcy of Kia, Korea's eighth-biggest
conglomerate, may trigger a chain of corporate collapses as heavily
exposed domestic financial institutions grow cautious and withdraw funding
to highly leveraged industrial groups.
The government said it would abolish restrictions that prevent
conglomerates getting high-interest foreign loans with a rate 100 basis
points above Libor. It would also allow all Korean companies to issue
securities abroad instead of limiting it to those with an international credit
rating of BBB or above.
The government will provide Won1,500bn ( $1.7bn ) to 61 commercial and
merchant banks during the next two weeks to ease any capital shortages.
This follows another Won1,500bn injected into the banking system last
week.
Moody's said it had downgraded the outlook for the four state-owned
banks to reflect a negative outlook it recently issued for Korea's sovereign
rating of single-A1, the fifth-highest grade in Moody's 16-stage scale.
The banks - Korea Development Bank, the Industrial Bank of Korea, the
Export-Import Bank, and the Housing & Commercial Bank - are mainly
responsible for the government's overseas borrowing requirements to
finance industry.
Moody's said the action was the result of the vulnerability posed by the
deteriorating financial condition of Korea's corporate and banking sectors,
and the substantial rise in short-term external debt.
The outlook for the country's rating also incorporates the accelerating
deterioration of North Korea and the increased likelihood of a sudden
collapse, Moody's noted.
The international credit ratings of Korean commercial banks, much lower
than the country's sovereign rating, could deteriorate further after some
earlier downgrades following the collapse of several big conglomerates.
On Wednesday, Standard & Poor's, the US credit rating agency, put five
of the six commercial banks it follows in Korea on a Credit Watch with
negative implications. They included Korea First, Korea Exchange, Hanil,
Shinhan and Korea Long-Term Credit.
The threat of a possible downgrade in Korea's sovereign rating comes as
the government faces mounting public pressure to offer subsidised loans to
Kia and other troubled conglomerates.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 21:00
NJ Traders>(Traders): - Glenn : It doen't make sense. This line is from your earlier post No doupt it hit stops and then thous traders had to follow tru with more aburd prints. If the local was sharp, were the traders that dumb?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:59
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Lights out at the library. Will check back tomorrow.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:58
Byron Two for One>(Two for One): - Here are two Gold Vs Xau Ratio charts. Any comments?
http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/ratio.htm and http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:51
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Letter to the Editor of Financial Times:
Gold loses glister in modern world
THURSDAY JULY 24 1997
From Mr Ludwin Fischer
Sir,
The FT Guide to Gold ( July 21 ) , though
informative, does not seem to be in tune with the
times. In view of the recent central bank gold
disposals alluded to by Robert Chote, his ensuing
statement that most central bankers are still reluctant to dispose of an asset
considered a hedge against inflation ( what inflation? ) and not someone
else's liability sounds like playing Glenn Miller to Techno-eager kids.
As he correctly points out, by having sold more than two-thirds of its gold
reserves Australia's Reserve Bank acted like an ordinary investor. And so
are the other central banks which are modernising the management of their
reserve portfolio, including those of the really big stockpilers.
A prime example is the recent Swiss National Bank law reform, geared to
increase asset revenue by revaluing gold reserves closer to market price,
allowing a higher proportion of foreign exchange reserves, the use of
derivatives in their management and reducing gold coverage of circulating
money from 45 to 25 per cent ( a revision bearing no link to the funding of
the Solidarity Foundation ) .
Similarly, Mr Chote omits mention of the recent controversy in Germany
over the proposed sale of part of its gold reserves to meet the Maastricht
deficit criterion. Perhaps it won't be too far-fetched to expect some mega
nails in gold's coffin in the not-too-distant future.
Ludwin Fischer,
9, place Grenus,
CH 1201 Geneva,
Switzerland - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:49
Lan Man Closing Bell - Precious Metals>(Closing Bell - Precious Metals): - COMEX and NYMEX precious metals futures ended mostly higher Thursday, after wide intraday swings in gold and silver, on very high volume in COMEX gold trading.
Fund short covering and local buying drove gold higher intraday, and silver was dragged up as a result, but it all fell apart again around $330.00, leaving little net change on the day in gold, Pioneer Futures analyst Scott Meyers said. The bottom line is precious metals are still weak, and rallies should be sold into, he said.
Support in August gold held early in the day just above $322.00, a level which had provided resistance for most of the previous two week, and locals took the opportunity to reverse and go long, while funds covered short positions and rolled into the December contract, traders said. But around the $330.00 level, which had proved to be resistance earlier this week, locals and funds turned sellers into the close.
Volume was boosted by heavy rollovers from the August into the December contract. August gold's first notice day is next Thursday, August 31. But COMEX gold open interest has declined to 206,207 contracts in the past week, from an 18 month high at 222,069 lots early in July, as funds have covered record net short positions.
Meanwhile, COMEX September silver ended down 1.5 cents at $4.280 an ounce, after again running into resistance around $4.40, and being dragged back down by the action in gold.
But NYMEX October platinum ended up $4.00 at $412.20 an ounce, with the contract's five-day moving-average climbing back above its 21-day and 55-day average this week, signaling a possible resumption of the uptrend seen earlier this year.
Although most of the early 1980's saw platinum trade with a $30-$50 premium to gold, it is worthwhile to compare the current economic scenario to the situation in the late 1980's, when platinum typically maintained a $100-$150 premium over gold, Platinum Guild International analyst Aran Murphy said. Both periods displayed characteristics of strong economic growth and low inflation, relative economic stability, and concern over near-term PGM supplies, he said.
In overnight news, Japanese traders said they expected the first Russian platinum shipments in six months would reach Japan by Monday next week. The first palladium shipments arrived last week. Meanwhile, Russian metal export agency Almaz, was again seen offering palladium in the spot market in Europe overnight, but traders said the problem was that not enough Russian metal was being supplied to meet pent up demand.
For the full text story, see http://www.merc.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=4102952-d31
---------------------------GOLD------------------------------
COMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Aug97 322.80 329.70 322.30 323.80 ... 414.50 314.60
Oct97 324.50 331.80 323.80 325.50 +.10 426.50 316.80
Dec97 325.70 333.00 325.50 327.10 +.20 456.50 318.50
Feb98 328.00 334.00 327.80 329.20 +.20 424.00 322.50
Apr98 331.20 331.20 331.20 331.30 +.10 408.40 325.00
Jun98 333.60 336.80 332.20 333.60 ... 470.00 327.50
Est. Sales 56932
--------------------------SILVER------------------------------
COMEX - 5,000 troy oz. _ cents per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 425.00 425.00 425.00 425.40 _1.50 631.00 418.50
Sep97 427.00 445.00 427.00 428.00 _1.50 576.00 418.00
Dec97 433.00 450.00 433.00 434.20 _1.40 701.90 424.00
Mar98 451.50 452.50 439.00 440.40 _1.30 573.00 432.00
Dec98 459.00 467.00 459.00 458.30 _1.30 752.10 448.50
Est. Sales 8824
----------------------HIGH GRADE COPPER-----------------------
COMEX - 25,000 lbs. cents per lb.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 108.60 109.90 107.40 109.90 +2.00 123.10 83.40
Aug97 106.10 107.70 106.10 107.60 +1.95 120.90 84.10
Sep97 106.00 107.90 105.70 107.80 +2.20 120.50 83.00
Oct97 105.10 105.20 105.00 106.70 +2.20 117.20 84.50
Dec97 103.60 105.40 103.50 105.30 +2.00 114.80 83.75
Mar98 101.90 102.00 101.80 103.20 +1.80 109.30 85.00
Est. Sales 7412
-------------------------PALLADIUM----------------------------
NYMEX - 100 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Sep97 180.00 185.50 176.25 185.50 +6.00 192.00 128.75
Dec97 171.50 176.00 171.50 178.50 +5.00 182.50 120.25
Est. Sales 542
--------------------------PLATINUM----------------------------
COMEX - 50 troy oz _ dollars per troy oz.
CONTRACT
CONTRACT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE HIGH LOW
Jul97 421.00 429.00 421.00 427.20 +4.50 473.80 353.50
Oct97 407.00 413.00 405.20 412.20 +4.00 429.00 355.50
Jan98 397.00 401.00 396.00 400.20 +2.00 424.00 360.00
Est. Sales 1164
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:46
Donald @Home>(@Home): - From London on Russian Gold Sales.
Russia to review economic reforms
Russian President Boris Yeltsin has issued several decrees before a cabinet
meeting to review ministers' efforts to introduce economic and social
reforms. Yeltsin, who held talks with First Deputy Prime Minister Boris
Nemtsov and other leaders, signed decrees on Wednesday aimed at
relieving chronic delays in payment of state salaries, clamping down on tax
debtors and increasing gold exports. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:42
Skylark home>(home): - Glenn: If the pit can get confused by someone selling below market price, it does not encourage respect about the capability of the pit. This certainly could not have been the first time that such a strategy to run the stops would have been attempted.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:34
Miro Why Gold?>(Why Gold?): - Well, it looks like the things are getting back to normal and one can
again read this forum without too much turbulence in the air.
Glenn: Yes, the inverse relationship between the DOW and Gold is very
noticeable. I am glad that you confirmed my feeling that the wide
fluctuation is mostly due to a short trading. I understand that that’s
the way you guys make money ( but I still hate it! ;- ) With my limited
knowledge I dare to make the statement that the increased range of daily
swings indicate the things will turn around. It’s like geyser gradually
building a strength… trying to go up … the more it goes up more shorts
are trying to make a fast profit taking it back down … but eventually it
will cross the threshold and it will keep going. I would be more
concerned if the swings were minimum because it would indicate there were
no buyers to push it up ( and shorts trying to take advantage of it. )
Yesterday there was a question why would you put money into gold related
investment. No, I won’t make a recommendation, I just try to explain my
investment philosophy. Let me say up front that I am not strictly a
gold bug though I recently moved part of money into gold mutual funds.
I still have about 30% of my money in stocks ( half of it in
international ) , about 25% in bonds, 25% in gold related issues and 20%
cash ready to move. I will gradually reduce stocks and go more into cash
ready to move it somewhere else ( or back to the stock market ) .
I am still making money ( even if my gold mutuals go down ) , and it was
nice to see that I was making money even when US market dropped ( and gold
or international markets went up ) . I decided to start moving money away
from stocks because I don’t want to guess to the last day when the things
turn around - I prefer safety to greed. Part of my decision is based on
feeling ( so far for the last 10 years it worked for me pretty good,
making about 15-20% annual return on my investment ) , part of it is based
on my life experiences.
Some of my justification for coming trouble in stock market:
1. Market is overvalued and fueled by greed when everybody must be in
it without having a slight understanding of what things like P/E, etc..
mean
2. International market - a part of the reason for accelerated growth
in the US Stock market - is heading for trouble ( as many of you pointed
today )
3. Technology issues which drive the market will be heading for some
unpleasant surprises. Fast turn around and aging of technology is
forcing companies to replace technology so fast that the return on
investment on IT is declining ( spending more on it than it is brings ) -
I know I work in IT industry.
4. Y2K issue will put a dent to economy - again I work on Y2K issues
and I am confident it’ll happen.
Some of my justification for leaning toward gold:
1. I believe that we underestimate shift in power in international
arena. I do believe that the Far East, especially China is becoming a
future power and I would not write off Russia ( as we conveniently did ) .
Anytime this shift in power occurs it brings a resistance, turbulence
in financial markets, and many time war conflicts. In times like this
paper does not mean much. By the way did you notice that the above
countries are buying ( not selling? )
2. I was born at the end of WWII in Europe. I cherish a long peace
period without a major conflicts, but nothing convinced me that the
human nature changed and we entered a period of lasting harmony. As a
matter of fact the latest trend of NATO expansion, EU, etc. will just
bring the trouble under one roof and there is nothing more damaging to
financial well being than family in disarray ( or going through divorce )
Will it happen tomorrow? No! Will it happen in a short time? Some of it
Yes! As I said, I am looking for a long trend. What happened to old
investment advice you make money in a long run?!
Then, maybe I am just plain wrong, but it’s my money and I won’t blame
anybody just because you told me 3-2-5. And I could go short on it.
Sorry for my rumbling but I hope it is related to gold.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:29
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - TW - Who said that it was against his own economic interest? I certainly did NOT! If you are short 50 contracts and then sell 5 more $0.80 below the market to create confussion and the market follows thru then you have made alot more then selling the 5 contracts at the higher price. The little extra you lost by selling way below the market was more than offset by the amount you gained by the shorts you all ready had. I do not know how short he was but it was up there. It may have even been 100 contracts.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:28
6pak Prophet @ Canada Mutual Fund>(Prophet @ Canada Mutual Fund): - July 24 1997, CANADA
Thousands gather to hear mutual fund prophet:
Sir John Templeton, 83, spoke to 9,000 shareholders.
http://canoe2.canoe.ca/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Mutual-Funds-Future.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:21
Space Cadet Academy>(Academy): - Just wondering if anybody out there involved with mining companies are interested in feasibility study of sending robotic ( like mars rover ) precious metal miners out to the near earth asteroids. Conceivably the life cycle of these rocks ( temperature, gravity, pressures ) allows for pure metal to be existent in these rocks just waiting to be picked up.
The investment would be in putting the rocket together and getting the thing up there, thing is the world is awash with cheap rockets ( ex-ICBM's ) . As NASA is for hire there will be space on a space station for rent and a shuttle for bringing the precious stuff down to earth.
Only problem the sheer quantities may swamp the only market we have. Well at least the earth wouldn't have to suffer strip mining and mass contamination with cyanide tailings any longer. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:20
Tw @HomeNV>(@HomeNV): - Where is Geo Cole with more commentary/ especially re the again late raid on gold. Geo what do you think of Glenn's comments re a trader ignoring the bid and selling below the bid against his own apparent economic self interest at he end of the day?
Geo comments or anyone? - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:13
Donald @Home>(@Home): - RON: Thanks for the math. I know it sounds wierd but people do tend to make make mental promises to themselves that involve round numbers. George Cole is thinking about 8300. The square of 91 is 8281 so everyone should be out by then just to be sure. You never hear anyone say I'm going to lose 11 pounds this month. It's just human nature, and a market is nothing more than a collection of humans.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:07
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Ted, its good that your arms have recovered to the point that you are able to post. I thought an arm transplant might be in order. Lads and Lasses, remember the old adage, when you are are becoming most discouraged with gold that is the time to be buying. Sell when everyone wants it. Gold's been around since the Garden of Eden. Its not going any place and in the long run it will not be bashed about by mere paper.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 20:03
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day): - At the risk of usurping Hepcat's controversial space on this forum and inflaming yet another segment of this bullish community, I post yet another story for the edification of those of you of a more jocular bent.
On the Pope's last visit to New York, he was riding in his limo
and he asked the driver if he could take the wheel for a while. The
driver thought this was an odd request but be stopped and changed
places with the Pope.
The pontiff pulled onto the freeway and began to open it up. After
a while he was doing 90 mph and saw the blue flashing lights in
the rear mirror.
When the officer pulled up and looked over the situation he
radioed his sergeant for instructions. Sarge, I have a very
important person pulled over for speeding and I don't know what
to do.
Who is it, Kennedy again? asked the superior officer.
No! This one is really important!
Who is it? The chief of the UN?
No really important!
The Mayor?
Even more important than that!
The Governor?
Sarge, you won't believe this. I don't know who he is, but he
must be damned important! He has the Pope as a chauffeur. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:52
confucius full of bull>(full of bull): - the old bull's bleeding
is the young bull's red flag - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:52
mikeharry motion sickness>(motion sickness): - This action in gold is making me nauseous. Maybe the triple fudge peanut butter brownie sundae didn't help matters but the late day sell off in the yellow put me into the spew zone.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:47
François @gold.investing.novice>(@gold.investing.novice): - First a question: are these spikes in bullion price called flags? what does that mean?, What is a flag?... Without your help, I see the recent activity as bullsih, but I am not sure why! I understand that a progressive rise and a big run up is better. But this febrile activity could be good... or is it?
Second: hepcat...sirocco and the aggressive responses and fake handles. The BEST is not to respond. Who cares about what they say. Ignore them. If you aggress them in return they will keep bugging this board. The WORSE is to censure: very bad solution. They will come back in some other ways, IMHO. That will make everythin worse.
François - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:39
Larryn post>(post): - When I tuned in to Kitco this morning, I noticed that gold was up big. By the end of the day, all of the $6-7 advance had died. I was hoping to see some comments posted which might explain the situation and help me decide to get on board or get off. Right after I bought a small position due to the gold increase, metals started falling and I was able to cancel another buy order, which saved me a few bucks.
Meanwhile there were no posting on Kitco with relevant news, perhaps because those serious about gold had decided to go elsewhere. I hope not. This forum is important to me as a source of valuable opinions and information during the day, so I thank BART for the pain and suffering he must go thru.
I want to encourage those with important news and comments to post them out where others can benefit. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:35
Jack @ $324 Conspiracy>(@ $324 Conspiracy): -
Maybe that $324 is a significant number on the charts; to give the little the shorts confidence to push things down a bit more, that is before the big players change direction; short term. I must be one of those conspiracy nuts.
I laughed when a newsrelease about this Cunanan guy -post mortem- was saying he was passing gold coins to avoid capture. Lots of that negative hype about gold lately, but always appealing to human interest. I wonder why so many such coincidents of late? - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:32
Pedro @All>(@All): - Because of it's diversity I find this a very stimulating Forum and because of that I think it will survive for a very long time.Sure there are the occasional lapses in decorum during the heat of verbal battle but I am confident the fair- mindedness and
generous intellectual capacity of most participants will ensure a democratic equilibrium in the final analysis. An old Scots saying goes something like:I wish the gift the Gods would gi'e us to see ourselves as others see us. Sure some egos have been
pricked...some characteristics mocked ...some old and dubious Goldbug rhetoric called to question.......but maybe we take ourselves too seriously at times...become to cliquey. Goldbugs are like any other herd with just the same characteristics.... and
that is one of the dangers especially for novices at such a waterhole as this. There is no doubt that Hepcat has been a force to be reckoned with bringing forth some excellent and disappointing respones with his postings. I have to agree with EB that his
Burrito residue line had me rolling in the aisles too! Diplomacy and manners he may be lacking but some literary talent he does seem to have! Does the problem perhaps lie as much with some of us as with the Hepcat?Good Luck in your decision Bart.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:31
TED @auric>(@auric): - Auric ( 18:45 ) No, I haven't taken a metal detector to Scaterie Island...
Would one fit in a kayak...The iland has been deserted since the mid 1940's but recently an old land owner ( Clem Spencer ) Took the Canadian Government to court and prevailed in reclaiming his property...He was out there today and showed me where most of the ship wrecks occurred so I think it's now time for a detector if it'll fit in the kayak...Other than Sable Island,Scaterie is the most ship wrecked Island in the Canadian Maritimes..... - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:23
GFD Thoughts>(Thoughts): - Roebear, All: I am not sure the posts from BT where he gave a date are necessarily authentic....
Does anyone have an idea why the dow and gold seem to have this negative correlation Are there hedges out there long dow and short gold?
TTFN - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:20
Larryn ...>(...): - Over the past year, I can remember several times that RJ, George Cole, myself and several others have suggested that gold was going down soon and smart investors might sell some. I was never the subject of serious criticism because I was going against the 'proven solution'.
IRREGULARPOSTER's comment that naysayers will be persecuted is BS. John hepcat is not criticized for his prediction; it's turned out to be generally good, although totally useless for my purposes. He is criticized because he acts like a jerk. I'm sure he is really a nice guy. RJ ( 13:49 ) said it better than I can.
DONALD.. Will you please repost the Dow/gold ratio.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:11
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - Donald: I understand the megatrends between gold and the stock indexes such as the DOW. That on a long term basis they generaly move in opposite directions is well established. However, I've rarely seen such close tracking in their prices that they make the same moves within the time frame of one trading day. I was just wondering if this might be of some significance or if it should be assigned to the random events circular file.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:01
6pak Economic Control @ 1920 and 1997 (Canada)>(Economic Control @ 1920 and 1997 (Canada)): - The Gold Standard, The Finance Act, and the Banks ( CANADA )
By 1920 the chartered banks were devoted to the *Finance Act System*. It
provided them with an assured, low-cost source of paper currency - an
alternative to the *Central Banking* mechanism which in more developed
economies, functioned as a *lender of last resort* for banks.
They did not really like to borrow, lest they appear *weak*; nevertheless
they valued the chance to do so. The banks, therefore, resisted suggest-
ions that Canada should set up its own *Central Bank*. What ?, they asked
did the dominion need with such a thing.?
Only the Royal Bank showed some interest. Nothing was done. And when the
economy contracted in 1920-2, several banks found that they had over-
extended themselves in the inflationary atmosphere of 1916-20. For that
sort of difficulty the mechanism of the Finance Act was no solution,
and the banks *resorted* to a much *older* medicine..MERGER.
The weaker banks, such as Molson's and Merchant's, were absorbed by
stronger institutions such as the Bank of Montreal.
Exchange rates, therefore, moved away from the par rates which before
1914 had been fixed by the comparative gold contents of the various
national monies.
The price of the United States dollar changed little until 1919-20,
when it rose from $1.0138 to $1.19 Canadian. The pound, however, fell
sharply. In 1913, on average, a pound cost $4.853 Canadian; by 1920 the
price of a pound was only $4.0757 Canadian.
Although the dominion did not leave gold for the sake of financing the
war effort, it came to welcome its new freedom to manipulate the money
supply. Nor was the Ottawa exchequer the only beneficiary; thanks to the
new provisions of the Finance Act, the BRITISH GOVERNMENT was able to
borrow large sums from the CANADIAN CHARTERED BANKS, who at once
presented the BRITISH short-term obligations to the Canadian Department
of Finance for *discounting*.
Canadian banks were accustomed to hold funds in New York and London,
from which centres they could obtain help in case of need. Under war-
time conditions there was no guarantee that this would be possible.
Hence the need for some domestic *lender of last resort*
In later years, Sir Thomas White would heatedly deny that Canada's war
finance had been inflationary. Certainly Canada did not deliberately
finance the war by printing money - at least, not to any great extent.
Nor did Ottawa itself borrow much from the banks. It merely continued
the tradition of borrowing from the public for extraordinary outlays.
With the end of gold convertibility in 1914, and with the arrangements
by which banks could borrow newly printed dominion notes on demand, this
restraint was removed.
Sooooo, is the future of deflation the natural direction, considering
the 1980's and early 1990's, off shore labour, downsizing, youth
unemployment, unemployment, under-employment, etc. etc. Attack on every,
and all, social safety nets, in the name of The Global Economy.
With all the cut backs, it appears to suggest a desperate act, to get
out from under a desperate economic situation. Certainly not an economy
that shares the wealth with all the citizen's that created the wealth.
In Canada to-day, there is an issue being discussed, that a person that
has a job, should in fact contribute, free. overtime hours worked, as a
thank you to the boss, for having a job. ( Interesting eh! ) Keeps
inflation down maybe, or is it more likely, a deflationary tactic.
( like a reduction in pay ? ) ( longer hours, same pay, is this inflation? ) - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 19:00
Tw @homeNV>(@homeNV): - If gold is so archaic and useless why do the CBs and others obsess about it. Maybe if they sell and it becomes important again they look bad. Have noticed almost unbelieveable inverse correlation between PMs and stks. Anybody whats the deal.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:49
Jack About the hep-cat>(About the hep-cat): -
Don't mind if a poster gives a good reason why gold is not a proper investment.
If not agreed upon, I try to state my point and why. Then it's over, but rational opinions will remain and may be considered at certain times.
Using outright chest pounding is for baboons. Like the posting of three-two-five; and writting it all over the net, what does it achieve?
The trouble; I think, is that we are feeding his inner needs?
This may be, by the most innocent conclusion -TO BUST OUR CHOPS. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:47
WW @NE>(@NE): - Everyone should see GLENN'S comment of 17:58/ in it he mentions someone ignoring all bids at 324.7 and selling at 324/Glenn recounted how it created confusion and hit stops but made little sense/UNLESS it is WAll St which doesnt care about bid and ask but wants to drive the price down. The fact that this always happens at the end of the day is further evidence. The fact Glenn said it was a just local but the real question is a local fronting for who? There is only one reason to ignore bids and sell below and that is to DRIVE THE PRICE DOWN.
Similar things have happened when the S& P futures is under stress in its few near debacles since summer 1996 but there is a bidder bidding miraculously above the market HMM.
When this blows it is really going to blow. Lets hope the increased volatility indicates that there is mkt opposition building to the current and last three years shananigans. When the bubble bursts the govt Wall St can do all they want to no avail. Further, to make matters worse, when the bubble does bust Wall St and Govt united front will crumble as finger pointing goes in both directions. Guess who will win!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:45
Auric @home>(@home): -
TED--I was wondering if you have ever taken a metal detector out to the island? Newer ones are pretty sophisticated, and I believe reasonably priced. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:45
Novice @rally killers>(@rally killers): - nomercy: The article you cite provides some insight into my earlier befuddlement about the abortive gold rallies we've had Tuesday and today...thanks. It is a little reminescent of the Blue Jays bullpen. One of these days...years ( ? ) . Good day on the water, Ted?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:37
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - IDT - Yes I have noticed the inverse relationship between the DOW and Gold lately. In all honesty I can not say forsure if the DOW will have anything more than a 100 point correction before we hit 9000. I think we will and I would never go long the DOW here but it just doesn't want to go down. I also think that there are alot of other traders, behaps even Smart Money who are confussed right now. The DOW feels like it could peak any day now but it goes up everyday. ?
NJ - No the local does not work for someone he is simply demented!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:29
TED @scaterieisland>(@scaterieisland): - Found no Gold but got a good tip on where to look from Clem Spencer along with the tea and the use of his telephone to call home....all on a supposedly deserted Island...go figure....Ain't life GREAT!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:28
Ron in math weenie mode>(in math weenie mode): - Donald: While I don't know much about Elliot Wave Theory, we should note that 381 is within about 5% of 20^2 ( 20^2=400 ) . Now, if this qualifies as close in Elliot Wave Theory, then a ±5% interval about 90^2 runs from 7695 to 8505, an interval that includes the squares of 88, 89, 90, 91 and , 92. In other words, at these levels of the Dow, and using that definition of 'close', we are always close to a perfect square. So, I think this particular idea of being close to a squared integer is a non-starter. Math weenie mode off.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:24
NJ Local>(Local): - Glenn : Unless the local was demented, which is doubtful, most probably he traded as an agent for someone else. Is there any way of finding out?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:24
Skylark home>(home): - PANDA: Thanks, the server appears to be down. ALL: There apparently is a concern over the Russian Announcement, but I do not understand why. The Russian CB has already committed to buy almost all of the gold mined this year. The banks have been granted permission to deal in gold to facilitate the mining industry and the development of mines - like banks in almost all mining countries. How is this negative?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:20
Tw @home>(@home): - TO ALL: TERRY @OZ 15:34 post provided excellent real time update URL for quotes. His cite works to contact site but if you input into your own system it is html at the end not htm- as it appears printed on his post though it works if you use his post to enter.
Thanks Terry!!! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:20
Donald @Home>(@Home): - IDT: I say that there is indeed an inverse relationship and that it is well documented back to at least 1929. I am using it as an indicator for making asset allocations and basic investment decisions.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:18
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - Steve and all wondering about BT, he was a mysterious Asian who posted through someone else's mail all sorts of cryptic forecasts about gold and was a big buyer supposedly. I questioned his ability to remain semantically in character unless he switched interpreters; of course I looked up RJ's skirts too! In any case, many here doubted and many believed. His last forecast for gold to take off had a deadline and just about coincided with the big drop early this month but I should check those posts to be sure. Perhaps his interpreter mistook down for up. Here are some of his pithy sayings preserved in our very own web resource site, http:///comments/gold/thread/970604.171555.notnickee.htm
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:14
panda @>(@): - Terry, Skylark -- You may want to try this for spot gold quotes,
http://www.bloomberg.com/
There's other stuff there too. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:13
Lan Man @Russians talking about war again...>(@Russians talking about war again...): - Wonder why the agressors are always calling its warriors/soldiers PeaceKeeping Forces?
http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/world/072497/world10_26420.html
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:08
nomercy More foreign Debt>(More foreign Debt): - The Fed reported that U.S. government securities held in custody by the Fed for foreign official
and international accounts rose $2.098 billion to $629.980 billion, reflecting what analysts said was a
cessation of foreign liquidation of Treasuries. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:08
hhsh hh>(hh): - Gary North's y2k site has this in it.
Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums
Summary and Comments
( feel free to mail this page )
Category:
Government
Date:
1997-07-16 00:00:00
Subject:
NOW READ THIS!!! The Good News Is Really Bad, Says
GAO
Link:
http://www.house.gov/science/willemssen_7-10.html>http://www.house.gov/science/willemssen_7-10.html
Comment:
On July 10, two subcommittees of the House held joint hearings on
the Year 2000 Problem. These were the Subcommittee on
Technology ( Science Committee ) and the Subcommittee on
Government Management, Information, and Technology
( Government Reform and Oversight Committee ) .
Joel Willemssen of the Government Accounting Office ( GAO )
testified as to the present status of the government's y2k repair plans.
He reported on the survey released on June 23, 1997, by the Office
of Management and Budget. This survey was not audited by any
independent agency. It relied 100% on the information provided by
the agencies. Willemssen's report is worth reading. Here are some
highlights:
The agencies said they would spend a total of $2.75 billion. This is
bound to go higher ( p. 3 ) .
18 of 24 agencies said in May that they would meet the June
deadline for completing the assessment phase. Those that did not
promise: Treasury, Defense, Transporation, Veterans Affairs,
Agency for International Development, and the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission .
Assessment accounts for about 1% of the total cost of a y2k repair
( see the California White Paper: Government. )
Health & Human Services did not actually meet the deadline ( p. 4 ) .
The Health Care Financing Administration of Medicare has done not
completed its assessment activities.
As we have pointed out in earlier testimony, if systems that millions
of Americans have come to rely on for regular benefits malfunction,
the ensuing delays could be disatrous. This is not bureaucratic
language.
The agencies' schedules are leaving no margin of error for
unanticipated schedule delays; 15 of 24 expect to complete
implementation in either November or December of 1999. This
leaves a matter of weeks, at most, if something should require more
work before January 1, 2000.
In short, he is saying, they expect that there will be no major failures
in code revisions for systems totalling millions of lines of code -- in
the case of the Department of Defense, over 350 million lines, in
dozens of arcane languages.
Furthermore, the agency reports may not be accurate. . . ( p. 8 ) .
Then comes the capper, the virtual guarantee of an international
collapse of all systems:
Data exchange. Many agencies exchange data with hundreds if not
thousands of external entities. Unless both parties to any exchange
are year 2000 compliant, information systems and databases may
easily be contaminated by coding embedded in noncompliant
systems. To combat this, agencies must inventory and assess all
internal and external data exchanges, make approrriate notifications
and, if necessary, develop appropriate bridges or filters to maintain
the integrity of replaced or converted systems and the data within
them ( pp. 5-6 ) .
At the same hearings, Joe M. Thompson of the General Services
Administration admitted the following:
Since GSA is the business arm of government, success in the Year
2000 means that our industry partners, and other state, local, Federal
and international agencies must also be compliant and ready to
provide seamless communication among all parties. Many of our
partners have not moved rapidly or aggressively enough to assure
that they, too, will be ready on time ( Statement of Joe. M.
Thompson, p. 5 ) .
Multiply this by about 200,000 banks worldwide. THERE IS NO
ESCAPE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CRASH. Face up to it now,
while there is still time for you to take action. That's my conclusion,
anyway. Now, back to Mr. Willemssen's testimony:
Systems prioritization. It is becoming increasingly clear that agencies
will likely be unable to correct all noncompliant systems before 2000.
. . . contingency plans must be prepared so that core business
functions will continue to be performed even if systems have not been
made compliant ( p. 6 ) .
The he adds a happy-face conclusion: It CAN be done, and the
public is depending on us to do it. The first half of his sentence is
obviously a convenient bureaucratic statement of faith: as the Epistle
to the Hebrews puts it, Now faith is the substance of things hoped
for, the evidence of things unseen ( Heb. 11:1 ) . The second half is
terrifyingly true: the people are depending on the government to fix it.
Such people are going to have their plans shattered in 2000 and
beyond.
Link:
http://www.house.gov/science/willemssen_7-10.html
Return to Category: Government
Return to Main Categories Page
Return to Home Page
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:07
IDT IDT@hope springs eternal>(IDT@hope springs eternal): - Glenn and all: I've noticed over the past several sessions that on an intraday basis gold and the greater stock market, DOW etc., are moving in a clear inverse relationship. Whenever the DOW is down gold is up and visa versa. Today was another example. Does this recently emerging pattern have any significance? Is the smart money getting ready to bail out of stocks and get into gold? Or, are the two markets simply pivoting on the same information for the time being?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:06
Steve @>(@): - Thanks Glen and Ron. So who is this big Trader anways?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 18:02
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER: AJ Frost of Elliott Wave fame has commented that significant Dow turning points are near squared numbers. For example, Sept 3, 1929 was 381, close to 20 squared. We have been hanging around the 8100 level for days, it doesnt seem anxious to bust out. That is 90 squared. Does your kind of work lead you to an opinion on that?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:58
Ron Russian Gold>(Russian Gold): - Steve: Here are two more short articles on Yeltsin's decree
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_34.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/23/y0023_z00_13.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:58
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Today's sharp sell off had NOTHING to do with russia and everything to do with some bearish locals trying to make money ( Dishonestly perhaps ) . The one event which really caught my attention was right before the close when we were at about 324.70/325.00 and one local came in totally ignoring all bids and sold 324.00. I don't have any idea how many he sold. Problable just 2 or 3 contracts but it just created enought confusion as a 324.00 print was being put up on the boards. No doupt it hit stops and then thous traders had to follow tru with more aburd prints. It was very heckic and he clearly was taking advantage of it and making it worse. Gold is up slightly on access with it no doupt should be. Of course in no way can I blame the whole decline on this. We seemed to really drift down as the Dow was turning positive which is correct logic and the bigger picture still remains Is the DOW going to 9000 in a straight line or are we going to have a sizeable correction soon? I keep thinking that it will correct soon but ..... The money supply came out a little while again. It dropped alot. Over-all very bullish for stocks and bonds and bearish for Gold and silver. The CRB looks like it is breaking out to the upside on the daily charts but will this be enought. Oh well no clear answer but isn't that what makes the markerts!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:56
nomercy more damage control by the CB's>(more damage control by the CB's): - Analysts explanation on today's runup and subsequent pullback..
Also, Chile is not selling gold
http://www.cnnfn.com/news/knight_ridder/2333.1.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:53
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Dow/Gold ratio is at 25.05 tonight. Still hanging in below the old high. A turnaround is still in effect, but just barely.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:47
gdlskfl;a fldas reopiopt]tq r] \r0i23n\>(fldas reopiopt]tq r] \r0i23n\): - gold is currently up 70 c on the Access
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:47
Poorboys busyas@bumblebee>(busyas@bumblebee): - Mike Sheller-Heliocentric Astrology points to Gold rally window starting about the 31 of this month and lasting no more than 10 days.In regards to explaining the tectonics of planetary configurations I have neither the time or patience to write a book at this time.Please don't take my remarks in a dispraise fashion as time is very scarce but I continue to be bearish on Gold to the end of January 1998.Happy trails.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:43
john doe @kitco>(@kitco): - WARNING: any new post by a first-timer in support of JOhn boy is in fact Johnny trying desparately to squelch his impending demise from this group.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:41
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NJ: Or the SK banks could have hired Haley Barbour as a Consultant I understand that he has had some experience in dealing with issues of this type. Oh well, there will be plenty more opportunities later!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:37
Steve Is Russia planning to sell gold>(Is Russia planning to sell gold): - Can someone give some insight to the announcement today regarding Russia’s’ decree to export gold. Are they planning to sell Gold or are they planing to add to their reserves. Is this the explanation to why Gold dropped so rapidly today after gaining some momentum.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:37
NJ Low>(Low): - Nailz : Your 15:56. Agreed. If 314 is breached, the next stop is the 1985 low of 280. On the other hand I also agree with Glenn, our mole on the Comex trading floor, that if a sharp leg down has to happen it would happen sooner rather than later. With every passing day and with a look at the following chart, I feel that maybe, just maybe, the low is already in place. http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=gcq7&time_period=Daily&bars=100&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=&mode=Dai
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:33
bw Re: Goldman, Buffet>(Re: Goldman, Buffet): - Goldman: Value does seem to be screaming at us across the precious metal sector. Silver eagles look very good to me. Screaming eagles, soon to be airborne.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:27
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - Could one of the 'old heads' here on Kitco tell me who Big Trader is? He seems to get a lot of respect, but I don't know if he is for real or if y'all are joking about him. Has he made predictions in the past that have come true? What's the story here. Thanks
Machf15 - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:25
WW @NE>(@NE): - Yesterday I said down and hopefully an upside reversal well it looks like we got the upside reversal but in typical fashion someone couldnt resist taking out the close timid long stops AT THE END OF THE DAY/typical modus op. When silver got crushed from its high that is when S&P stabalized/ when gold gave up its gains it was off to the races for the S&P. The higher volitility in gold means the Wall St S&P futures supporters are having a more difficult time killing gold. Someone is now in opposition to them in both silver and gold. Spike failed rallies are often followed by spikes/ a sign supply and demand is changing. The next week should be interesting. The Wall St boys have their hands full..I think!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:22
NJ Lobbying>(Lobbying): - Donald : When would the South Koreans ever learn? Had they paid attention to the Wall Street Journal, they would have found out how NJ Gov. Christy Todd Whitman got around a very similar situation with a personal telephone call to Harold McGraw III. The story is not too old, being that it was published on Page C1 of the newspaper's July 22, 1997 edition. At the very least their embassy should find out if DNC is accepting cotributions for the next elections: )
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:21
OLD GOLD WISDOM>(WISDOM): - Goldman: You are goldwise and just plain wise. The fundamental investment axiom of the 1990s -- it is never too late to buy stocks or sell gold -- is about to be repealed.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:20
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - Novice I second your motion. In the gold war between bulls and bears I for one could use an on the scene war correspondent. The battle has inflicted casualties on my portfolio. BTW anybody have any news on PGU? Off 12% this week.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:15
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Malaysia says it has enough reserves to support currency.
http://www.jaring.my/~star/current/24yprese1.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:11
nomercy Microsoft>(Microsoft): - it'll be interesting to see market reaction, to the warnings. Golds upturn is not far away
Microsoft forecast: dreary
Software giant still points to market
saturation and slowing profit growth
http://www.cnnfn.com/digitaljam/9707/24/microsoft/ - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:11
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - Tom I'm interested in Rhodium but am also looking for info. Supply/demand figures at http://www.matthey.com/pmd/pmdpubs/pt97/PT97RH.HTM
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:10
Skylark Market Vane Report>(Market Vane Report): - You bears have plenty of company, the Market Vane has 18% bullish on gold, lowest since 16% in 1985.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 17:10
BillD Friction with Asian and Western!!>(Friction with Asian and Western!!): - ASEAN tells West to stay out of Asia's financial problems:
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9707/24/asean/index.html
What, they don't want US to fix the problems How absurd!! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:55
Novice @?>(@?): - As a true novice with a much-battered ego I can ask this question: what in #$@% has been going on with the gold price over the past three days? On Tuesday, and again today, we saw the price rocket vertically only to fall just as fast and hard. Who's sending messages to whom, and who would appear to have the stronger hand here...those who can drive it up, or those who can knock the rally down? Thanks in advance.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:44
tom @sprynet.com>(@sprynet.com): - Does anyone care about rhodium? A chart is here at http:///platinum.group.html anyone care to comment...
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:34
KJB curious>(curious): - Did anyone post a response to the Last Warning by Big Trader several days ago? I believe it said something like:
russia's the key, japans a sideshow, the bulls charging?,uplink severed
Is this a hoax or what? - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:33
Donald @Home>(@Home): - World Trade Org. rules prevent So. Korean bailout of Kia Motors. They complain that WTO rules prevent them from doing what US Govt. did for Chrysler. NWO types take note.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0725/m0725b01.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:25
Goldman Warren Buffet>(Warren Buffet): -
Buffet says to buy when a security is priced so low that the value is screaming at you. For gold mining stocks, that time is now.
Forget the charts, forget the short-term volatility--just buy gold.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Standard & Poors places 5 South Korean banks on watch list with negative implications.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/kh0725/m0725b05.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:15
TED @scaterieisland>(@scaterieisland): - Nailz: Just in the door and who's name is at the top of the page...YOU...I do believe in fate...A FANTASTIC Scaterie Island experience and will e-mail you when I can lift my arms...BBL!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:14
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - How many of us would still be annoyed with hepcat if all the posts forged under his name were erased from our memories? Apparently, many of the most irritating ones were forged. Take away the bombast, and much of what he says is quite sensible.
In any case, it's amazing to me just how disruptive one person can actually be, as he brings out the worst in others. Someone pointed out that 36% of the posts yesterday morning were related to this little spat, even though John himself only posted 9 of them. It's a regular case study in sociology, if you ask me. I have a little better understanding now of what has happened to usenet. Conceivably, it could happen to Kitco too, if Bart doesn't get a handle on it.
By all means bring on the squelch button, Bart, but do something about forgeries too, please. Should we ban John? Maybe. I just don't want to live under a one-party system, that's all. This site is only useful to me as an investor if I can hear all the arguments, both bullish and bearish, so that I can make up my own mind.
And now something that actually has a bearing on gold:
Russia Gold Export Decree in Limbo
Thursday, July 24, 1997; 11:37 a.m. EDT
MOSCOW ( AP ) -- Russian officials haven't yet resolved
differences over a draft presidential decree liberalizing gold
exports and it's not clear when the document might be signed,
the Prime-Tass news agency reported Thursday.
The report contradicted a Tass dispatch Wednesday, which
said President Boris Yeltsin had signed the order during a
meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov and
Central Bank Chairman Sergei Dubinin.
Thursday, Tass quoted an unidentified government official as
saying some officials still fear that eliminating the current
government monopoly on gold exports would destabilize the
gold market. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 16:10
nailz THANKS.....>(THANKS.....): - TERRY..........Thanks for the posting on that site....IT IS NEAT !!!! TED...Saw your early AM post...YOU DEVIL !!!You just had to rub it in on me because I couldn't go didn't you ?Hope you enjoyed your trip to Scaterie and found some gold too.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:56
nailz Look out Below>(Look out Below): - ALL...Just a guess, but here goes....Today may have established the range we trade in for the next few days, weeks or maybe months....That is IF the bottom holds....The range would be a good one ( $314-$329 ) and would be big enough for all to make some $$$..You should expect the $314 to be tried again, probably as gold just drifts downward....
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:52
IrregularPoster Hepcatview>(Hepcatview): - BART: The current situation has gotten out of hand and as such the remedy should not become the model for the future. Hepcat has been about the same in his way of posting on other sites and not ended up in this mess. There is much a problem with his combatants as there is with him. The starting point is that Hepcat predicted the infamous 3-2-5 and he was right and embarrassed regulars who can only see gold going up. Rather than dealing with whatever insight he has he has been attacked personally and responded in a similar vein.
Any bear posting here is going to get the same reception. Any bear who is eventually right is going to have to demonstrate much more restraint than both Hepcat and his combatants if the situation is to be avoided in the future.
As much spacer is wasted here daily with jokes, complaints about welfare neighbours and representatives of looser causes as been lost to the Hepcat. They just aren't as interesting. The solution is in dealing with this predictable harrassment by the majority of those who see gold and other PM going up and those who don't. It's a policy decision thats needed once the current situation is dealt with. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:46
KJB >(): - Let me try again:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_34.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:41
KJB >(): - Your comments appreciated
RE:
http://yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_34.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:40
Skylark home>(home): - If one looks at the DBC Futures contracts page, there are few red numbers and a jumb in the CRB.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:34
Terry Oz@Canada>(Oz@Canada): - I just discovered this site,what looks like live update on all US indexes
Gold,Silver as well.It is jumping around all over the place,not rigged though.
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indicators.html?source=core/dbc
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:27
Goldbug23 @Ignore>(@Ignore): - Arly: I could not agree with you more. Those ignored soon go away!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:26
Skylark home>(home): - It is noted that the Dec. contract is outperforming the August contract, anyone care to comment on the reason therefore.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:21
Byron @ Shaking The Tree:>(@ Shaking The Tree:): - Looks like August Gold ended up .10 cents according to the lastest DBC quote. High 329.70 Low 321.2 Close 323.9 Look like some shaking of the tree took place today. Maybe. Well, how did that song go: We won't be fooled again. Maybe.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:06
Regular Poster @hepcat situation>(@hepcat situation): - Bart: First, let me say thankyou once again for this informative site that you provide us. And let me thank all the regular contributors who share their knowledge with us.
I agree with many here who are tired of putting up with the rantings of john hepcat. I can ignore it as I have done in the past, but I fear that some of the worthwhile contributors will leave because of this nonsense. I think this is an incredible site do to the postings of several regulars. Unfortunately, the atmosphere here has degenerated to a point that lends to frivolous comments.
Can you please take some action to remedy the hepcat situation before more damage is done to this site? - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 15:01
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for Panda
Your comment on RSA mining costs is incisive. RSA costs have been
as crazily overstated as North American costs have been understated.
I just read a statement somewhere by Mister Munk of Barrick that their
production was sold forward at 420 and their costs were less 200. The
implication is that they will make 220$ per ounce of gold produced.
I dont believe that is true - do you
I dont have time now but Ill check it against his earnings per share
figures tomorrow. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:48
capnkev @dem>(@dem): - they are trying to keep it in a nice range
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:46
KJB learner#?>(learner#?): - Excuse me....that's repeat not repete. Where's my mind!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:42
KJB learner#?>(learner#?): - Sorry for the repete. Miles' 08:55 post covered the complete news release.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:26
KJB learner#?>(learner#?): - Comment taken from news release:
``Since the overwhelming source of the short position lies in the American market which has a limited time horison in trades of
this sort, we can reasonably expect some relief from the weight over the market as the speculative shorts are squared in due
course,'' Anglo gold division, Anglogold, marketing director Kelvin Williams said.
Williams said at a presentation of Anglogold June quarter results that the group expected the depressed gold price to return to
an equilibrium underpinned by firm physical offtake.
He said gold producers should pay more attention to physical offtake rather than be spooked by Central Bank selloffs of gold
reserves.
``The fundamentals of supply and demand continue to grow increasingly favourable for the metal and the relative influence of
individual elements in the mix of supply and demand shows a very different picture from that painted by journalists and
analysts,'' he added. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:22
Goldbug Omega - 1 prnv14aa@prodigy.com>(prnv14aa@prodigy.com): - Diogines: Well said. We cynics have to stick together. Ingotwetrust somewhere down the line. Maybe 2000 will do it!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:18
Goldbug23 AKA Omega-1 Ingotwetrust>(Ingotwetrust): - Pizza Man: The http:// gets the job done. El Nino and 2000 are major economic factors right now in our lives. Go to it. Pls post your El Nino site!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:15
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): -
Gosh, yeah, and then RJ would have no competition. Like that response
( quite long for someone who expresses no interest in dealing with
people who live in the mud ) was a big surprise.
RJ, a little tip for you, good buddy. Aurophile may have groomed you, and
you may think everybody loves you, but you last as long on this
site as you're deemed useful, or as long as people can tolerate
your infallibility.
I predicted $325 on July 29 and encouraged others to make a prediction.
Here again, for people who cannot read or understand, were the conditions
of the bet. IF YOU WERE OFF BY $5, you couldn't post for a month.
Not one of the big players ( who come to this site to learn ) cared to bet.
Now, why is that? If they come to this site to learn, why would they care
if they made an incorrect prediction and couldn't post for a month? They
could absorb a lot during that month, maybe learn how actions have
consequences. No, what they were worried about is that they would
lose their ability to post, and be unable to revel in their own brilliance.
RJ, you clearly know a lot, and you lurked for a year, so why didn't
you make a prediction? You would have had five dollars to play
with on either side of your number.
When has the gold market moved more than $10 in a two week span
in the last year?
Listen to you. You claim no one can predict the future, with one exception.
The only problem is, you're not the exception, and you're attempting to
eliminate the exception. Oh well, at least your disciples will learn a lot
about micturation. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:10
diogenes in the mountains>(in the mountains): - those with GOLD have many friends
those with SORROWS have none - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:04
Oliver @Gold related>(@Gold related): - All..!
Gold UP more than $ 7.00 since the morning Low.Now $ 329.20.
Venusians are jumping in too?
http://wsf1.usatoday.com/money/gold.htm
Oliver - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 14:03
Cat-astrophy (atrophy?)>((atrophy?)): - I think many have missed the point- it isn't his views on gold or markets that have been his undoing, but his style-anger, bile, bitterness,etc.. IF one is more intelligent than others, or IF one has better insight, then one should accept it gracefully and help others develop theirs as well. Or keep quiet. I am more than willing to forego what MAY be insightful analysis in return for civility. I suffer what I consider to be some silly opinions on this site, but I feel no ill-will or anger towards the authors, because for the most part, they are offered with good intentions and a pleasant air. Skin the cat!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:58
Larryn ....>(....): - BART: I monitor this site because there are periodic reports such as the recent FRONT post which alerts me to something I am unaware. I am receptive to all viewpoints on the market, bear or bull. I have made money with gold descending from 400 and lost some. All meaningful comments on the market and intelligent discussions do us all good.
I am forced to overlook the asinine comments of some whose arrogance is inverse to the amount of money they have on the table. Yesterday the site was full of insulting garbage which surely causes other intelligent visitors to go somewhere else in search of rational thought.
If someone isn't investing money, his opinion doesn't carry much weight with me. I've seen plenty of high school math majors make money on paper and loss their butt in the real world.
For those kitgoists contributing concise, intelligent comments about economic possibilities, please don't be blown out by immature idiots. Like George, I have learned to skip certain contributors.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:49
RJ Lets decide this and move on..............>(Lets decide this and move on..............): - Bart - I decided a couple weeks ago to just ignore our wayward son and leave his posts unread. These posts have, however, become the main topic on this site. I have, against my better judgment, reviewed the last few days and found his posts to be more of the same. This guy has not only filled this site with acrimony, but he hasn’t offered one iota of useful information in all that I have read.. He simply repeats the same attacks over and over again. I strongly suspect this sad man has zero money riding on his bombastic proclamations. I can only conclude this because he claims to know what the market will do. He will even call a date and state, with all certainty, what the closing price will be. This kind of absolutism would prove to be a colossal failure in the real world. So instead, he comes here with his market masturbations and demands that all bow and call him king. He then whines that it is his views that have so many upset. This is the worst kind of tripe and transparent to all who visit this site regularly.
I read this page for a year before I ever posted. I have seen many try to express bearish views only to be shouted down. The posters would then, either change their handle, modify their views, or quietly slink away. Tolerance of opposing views has been very slight at times. I, for one, think that any forum requires input from all views, otherwise, it is not a discussion group, but a fan club. I have noted, however, that the more reasoned members here look for just one thing from a dissenting view: arguments and facts to back up positions expressed.. When these are presented in a strait forward manner, often the issue is set to rest with an agreement to disagree. Their are some more rabid responses to dissent but, lacking good foundation to argue effectively, often are reduced to the status of don’t confuse me with the facts, I’ve made up my mind.
I burst into this group about six weeks ago with a position guaranteed to provoke response. I knew what the majority view here was, and I voiced an opposing opinion about gold as a buy and hold investment. Some tried to shout me down as well. Rather than simply getting into a pissing contest, I presented facts and figures to back up my opinions. While not changing the minds of those who disagreed, they soon calmed down and offered there own facts and figures in rebuttal. I have been in these markets for many years, but a day does not go by in which I do not learn something from these members.
So it finally comes down to, not the views expressed, but the manner of expression. I have crossed the boundaries of proper etiquette in the past, but in reviewing my own manner, offered apology before any was demanded of me. I recognize impoliteness even if I am the one being impolite. Now, while their are still many who strongly disagree with me, I feel as if I have been accepted.
Our naughty member still will cry to all, you don’t like me because of my views! The sad truth is, we don’t like him because he is so thoroughly dislikable. After reading some of his other writings, I find him all the more sad. He has an obvious talent with words, but an insecurity that forces him to use this talent to hurt. I truly believe he does not see anything wrong with the way he acts. Like OJ, he feels justified in what he does. This much is apparent.
Should he be restricted? Since he does not recognize the harm he causes and feels quite justified in continuing his combative ways, I feel that the welcome mat has been left out long enough. He has abused his privileges here far too often and they should therefore be revoked. This revocation should carry the caveat that it is not his views that you are closing the door on, but his manners. He likes to call himself a cat, but I find his musings the petty and pretentious preenings of a paranoid pup.
If I may offer on final suggestion: Perhaps you could require all posters to register with you using their proper e-mail address and their chosen password. You could then e-mail back a first time access password that would not reach the poster without a correct e-mail address. From that time forward, the poster would need to log on with his own password. This method would prevent people from simply changing their handle to avoid repercussions. They could sidestep this by using a friends e-mail, but I suspect sad pups of John-boy’s ilk have very few friends.
Thank you for providing an extraordinary site where all may come together, with respect to their fellows, and share their views.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:46
silverShines Mikee767@aol.com>(Mikee767@aol.com): - With gold, and silver way up today, it will be interesting to see whether our biggest market newscasters ( KGO ) will report the big increase at ALL on their afternoon market updates, let alone, report it with the same GLEEFUL toine to their voice that they use everytime there is even a minor drop in the price! I hate to sound like a consipracy freak, but I wonder sometimes about the extra level of bias in even something so innocuos as reporting daily market moves! Has anyone else noticed this?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:45
vronsky ALL GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM REPORT - GOLDBUGS FEEL LIKE HOLYFIELD'S EAR>(ALL GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM REPORT - GOLDBUGS FEEL LIKE HOLYFIELD'S EAR): - International Analyst, James Dines Rule of Gold Countertrend says: The price of gold tends to move generally opposite to the rest of the stock market. See July 21, 1997 Study at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/dines721.html
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:45
Oliver @D.A.You are Right.>(@D.A.You are Right.): - DA You are right,
The necessity to protect our freedom of speech on the internet is Primordial.
So this squelche solution seems to be the perfect answer for those of us who do not want to lose our interest in learning from this EXTRAODINAIRE site where I love to read 99999999999999999999% of Participants.
I am with you 100%.
Gold more than $5.00 since the morning low.
Oliver
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:40
confucius sorrow's>(sorrow's): - time to see the colour of your GOLD
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:40
MoreGold @Today>(@Today): - Up 5.10 on KITCO.
I hope we see a close above 331. today.
Gold seems to be very uncomfortable when it's below 325.
Sure hope this is what it seems to be on the surface, putting in a bottom. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:26
Mike Sheller lunch charts>(lunch charts): - August Gold has closed the gap, and now come back to test above it. Today's reversal UP needs to take out 329 ( psychologically, 330 would be nicer ) solidly. If so, we go to 345ish for next resistance. On 7/18/97 we observed October Platinum ( then 394 ) must knife thru congestion between 400-410. In which case it will meet next resist at 430-435. It appears to be chewing through today. Looks like we may be into rally mode for now gang. Put in your stops on gold at 324.50 basis August, and start nibbling. As RJ would say, put down the first layer lads & lassies.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:25
D.A. one.more.opinion>(one.more.opinion): - Bart:
The squelch function that you have advertised seems to be the perfect solution. We can consider it a V-chip for adults. Those who wish not to be burdened by what they feel is inappropriate behavior will be free to use it and forever be unencumbered by prose which offends their eyes. For others who are willing to wade through piles of refuse in order to glean the occasional pearl, or to engage in verbal warfare, they will be free to do so. If we start banning people from the site its going to get real ugly as people petition you when they feel they have been slighted. Its likely the membership will dwindle as more censorship wars are waged. If a certain individual's posts are unanimously disliked then that person will end up with an audience of one. A most fitting punishment. On a technical note, the squelch function would work best in an environment where posters were identifiable to you so that they could not subvert the intent by posting under a new name. Thanks for maintaining the site.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:25
Three dollar @smack>(@smack): - I wonder if the $3 is just for rolling over the comex contacts?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:10
GM strike Y2K>(Y2K): - If you want to see the effect of the y2k bug, look at the effect of the GM factory strike in the US. One factory goes down and the whole system stops.
Also, I can't get through to my coin dealer, his phones are busy!
And, there are only 20% bulls!!!! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:05
Front Inflation .....>(Inflation .....): -
To back up what Slick said this morning about workers wanting to strike, Canada Post has announced that they want an 11% pay raise this time around. Does that say anything about wage inflation hitting the steets soon? Sure does to me!
TTFN - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 13:04
SatteliteGuy lilley.mike@ssd.loral.com>(lilley.mike@ssd.loral.com): - As a long time lurker, I finally feel compelled to respond to those who are trying to get the Cat thrown off the site. Such squelching of intelligent dissenting opinion, espeecially since his track record has been about a million times better than those who'd like to shut him up, makes me truly question who on this site, deserves to be listened to. Attention Site NAZIS, you can put your heads in the sand and mentally masterb*** each other, or you can have a GENUINE forum with value. If you ban the Cat, your forum and your opnions will be reduced to a credibility level of ZERO. When I was younger, I listened to the likes of you people ( Howard Ruff and such ) and lost my entire savings on gold and silver investments. It's taken a LONG time ( 20 years ) to scratch my way back to having a decent savings, ALL built up from stock investments I might add. Had I continued to listen to you folks, I'd have remained broke or worse. I still believe gold and silver will shine, silver especially since above ground reserves are disappearing with no meaningful CB holdings, BUT I can also say I wish I'd had a Hepcat around when I was younger. Mind fascists, if you're that afraid of being wrong, if your thesis are THAT fragile that they can't stand critical scrutiny, then you shouldn't be posting anyway. Leave Hepcat alone!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:59
nailz Lelands Story>(Lelands Story): - Leland.....I too like to gamble with the metals..It is a game and there are big profits and big losses...I don't play with butter and egg money and what I might lose is what came from a previous venture...The past few months haven't been good for Mr. Gold and Mr. Silver, but their day will come again...I will be ready...I want to gamble some more.!!!!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:57
Oliver @Please Reload it is now plus $3.50>(@Please Reload it is now plus $3.50): - Is it the THING!!!
Marshtians are on a rampage?
Oliver
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:54
bw Debt orgy:>(Debt orgy:): - Todays wsj: Always page c2 is reserved for the index charts. Not today. Today something more important than mere charts is on page c2. Page c2 alone lists 1.6 billion in brand new debt for sale. Page c3 adds another 1.6. All this debt is due around the year 2007. Some big players think the time is ripe to lay some big paper. Give me the money now and ( if I can or want to ) I'll pay you back later.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:53
Oliver @Gold RELATED...!>(@Gold RELATED...!): -
Please look at this nice gold graph today.
Up $2.70 in less than an hour.
http://wsf1.usatoday.com/money/gold.htm
Oliver - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:52
Front Turning ?>(Turning ?): -
It should be noted that within the last 15~20 minutes, the Toronto Gold index has turned completely around. Gold prices on EBN have risen above the 326 level again. The big blue chip funds on the TSE are floating to down and Energy seems to be holding steady. However, the turn around in Gold was quite dramatic and sudden considering. Orvana is the only real holdout of low prices at -4% from yesterday. Perhaps I move further into the Precious metals nearer days end. We'll see ....
TTFN - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:51
vronsky PRECIOUS METALS COMING ALIVE - SIGHT FOR SORE EYES>(PRECIOUS METALS COMING ALIVE - SIGHT FOR SORE EYES): - FUTURES PRICES ( HIGHS TODAY ) : Gold 327.50 ( +3.70 ) , Silver 4.42 ( +12.5 cents ) , Platinum 411 ( +3.30 ) & Palladium 184.50 ( +5.00 ) . SEE Intera-Day charts:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:45
nomercy is it the turning point?>(is it the turning point?): - CRB index over 336 and holding, gold rallied up, dow is down
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:40
Front To Scotty: (:-))>(To Scotty: (:-))): -
I can hear faintly a chant brewing ....
The first joke was great; the second started to echo the following in my ears ....
We want TORT ! We want TORT! ( :- ) ) ) )
Thanks ( :- ) ) - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:38
Bob A atwork>(atwork): - FWIW, Ithink it's time to buy SWC.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:37
Bob Palermo bobp@cadence.com>(bobp@cadence.com): - Machf15 - I use gold as an insurance policy in my investment portfolio. I balance the rest of my investments, which are mostly in stock funds, with a small percentage of gold. As such, I don't worry about the price of gold or direction that it is heading when I buy. Actually, I will probably be happiest if gold doesn't run up because if it does, it probably means that the rest of my investments will be going down.
Some may say that the gold is a non-performing asset but this is true of the insurance portion of any insurance policy. It doesn't perform until and unless you need it.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:35
panda @>(@): - BillD -- Been away from the computer for a while ( even I have to do some work!:- ) ) ) Got to go back to slave duties now.... BBML
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:32
Oliver @liberty vs nonsense>(@liberty vs nonsense): -
Bart, what is this announcement for?...Everytime we enter this marvelous site.
The content in this group should be related to gold or other precious metals as a commodity, financial instrument, or other tradable asset. Although participants can choose not to reveal their identity, everyone is expected to conduct themselves no differently than when engaged in a real face to face discussion. Newcomers should review Kitco`s ¨netiquette¨ before posting.....!!!
I am a humble lurker who spent an awful lot of time in this site. I do not post often because I am considering myself as a student at this stage even if I am retired at 53 with an awful amount of money ( for me ) at stake in the markets in general and in gold stocks in particular.
Since the CAT pissed all over the site I fell I am wasting my time here...
SOS....SOS....SOS...Bart, Please !
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:31
panda @>(@): - Pizza Man -- put in the http:// and that should do it!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:30
Scotty Kitco site question>(Kitco site question): - Bart.....I'm looking for an answer about the Options blocks. It used to be that I could stop a download and reset the options -- like the dates or oldest first. Now I have to wait for the whole download to get the option screen to display all the buttons. Is this something in my machine or did you rearrange all the electrons again? :- ) )
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:27
Pizza Man El-Nino news>(El-Nino news): - Steve from ( down under ) :
Here is a site regarding more El-Nino information.
www.fishmart.com/news/index.html?
How do you highlight a URL so other posters can just click on it?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:26
Scotty ok, one more joke>(ok, one more joke): - A gold trader goes camping in the woods for the first time. Being a prudent gentleman, he hires a guide for his week-long trek. He is also a lover of nature and has a hard time harming any animal, to include stepping on ants. His guide is helpful, but has only one strong warning: under no circumstances should you come between a mama bear and her cubs. Other than that, these woods are pretty safe. A couple days go by and sure enough, the trader accidently walks between a mama bear and her cubs. Of course, the mama bear is furious and comes after our hero. His guide yells for him to pick up a club to hit the bear, then run like hell. Not being a violent man, he accepts his fate and his last words to his guide were: Well, we all have our bears to cross.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:25
Skylark home>(home): - JOHN DISNEY: Correction the Index symbol is JGLD.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:24
sssssssssss xxxxxxxxxxxx>(xxxxxxxxxxxx): - Gold up and the US dollar up and lease rates up. It will be interesting to see if this means anything to those whose curriencies are being devalued.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:24
Skylark home>(home): - JOHN DISNEY: What does the South African Index JGAI titled South African all gold 10% refer to?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:23
Skylark home>(home): - JOHN DISNEY: What does the South African Index JGAI titled South African all gold 10% refer to?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:21
Scotty lunch time humor>(lunch time humor): - For all: thought I'd throw in a joke for today ( apologies to Tortfeasor! )
After extensive investigation by both the Russian and US space agencies,
spokespersons from both organizations announced that they have
determined the cause for the accident which has placed the station and
its resident personnel in jeopardy. In a terse statement at a recent
press conference, Soviet and US space agency spokespersons said
Thursday: We have concluded joint investigations concerning this
potentially tragic accident and each nation's team, separately, has
arrived at identical conclusions for this incident. The accident was
caused by one thing and one thing only: Objects in Mir are closer than
they appear.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:20
Scotty Gold eagle IRA>(Gold eagle IRA): - Pascal......you wanna put Eagles in an IRA? Hmmmmm...you can do a self-directed IRA. I believe you are now allowed to buy them and put them in a safety deposit box. Also, companies like Monex and Blanchard will do that for you ( I think ) . Blanchard's number is 800-880-4653. They can tell you for sure. Ask for Brad. I don't have the Monex number handy, but I'm sure it's in the 800 directory at 800-555-1212.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:18
Scotty catching up on all the comments>(catching up on all the comments): - Tired........good job on your gold theory! I do believe that many on the street ( and a few here ) are missing the fact that gold has an intrinsic value. I know a particular wife of a good friend of mine who lives and dies for gold jewelry. She is always wearing something really nice ( not gaudy ) - even when she is mowing the yard! I'll bet she's spent 10 grand in the last few years on gold jewelry, and that trend doesn't look to stop ( unless hubby's money is in the stock market ) .
Although your scenario of the rich ( on paper ) gentlemen selling their stocks for gold for their wives is a little far fetched [G], your theory of intrinsic value for the sake of looking good makes much sense.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:17
BillD EVERYTHING'S UP>(EVERYTHING'S UP): - Now Pl, Pa, Au, and Si all moving up into the green...gold up $1.50..Dow down about 70...hum....
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:12
RKM rkm@harborside.com>(rkm@harborside.com): - George Cole ( 10:19 )
I agree with your post and would add only this. My Bible says:
For when they shall say peace and safety; then sudden destruction comes upon them, as travail upon a woman with with child; and they shall not escape. I Thessalonians 5:3 - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:12
BillD Pa (again)>(Pa (again)): - Panda...Pa now up $3.50...any news that you can find
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:08
Tim @Bart>(@Bart): - Bart: Re Hepcat: I realise you asked for an e-mail response, but I would like everybody to have the opportunity to see this post. The short reply is: I simply am not sure what your best course of action is. My initial reaction was that, unlike others ( Dr. Doom, Long Gone, etc. ) who have been virtually run off this site for expressing dissenting views, Hepcat has chosen to stay and fight it out, bare-knuckle if necessary.
I personally have no qualms about this, provided it is legal ( Earl @11:09 is correct - there are some bounds to free speech. The law will not permit free speech to be used as an excuse to commit treason, perjury or defamation, for instance ) . However, if the vast majority of Kitcoites are so offended by Hepcat that they choose to leave rather than tolerate him, the brilliance which is clearly present will be lost, and the site may be irreparably harmed.
Even if you decide to ban Hepcat, you face technical problems in doing so. Unless you convert the site to a full registration site, possibly with a fee for posting privileges, I cannot see how Hepcat could be prevented from simply changing handle/e-mail address every time he wants to continue his merry way.
Hepcat is not the lunatic many here make him out to be. What if you, Bart, were to make a personal approach to him to tone it down and resume the debate on a more amiable footing - put him on probation, if you will. To some extent, Hepcat has already achieved one of his purposes - bearish views are much more readily received at this site than when I first began lurking, many months ago. If the regulars are truly persons of character and dignity, they should be able to forgive Hepcat his previous social indiscretions, provided he maintains a civilized tone, and posts at the intellectual level of which he clearly is capable. Banning him may simply make a martyr out of him, and possibly provoke others to try the same tactics.
Aside from the individual chagrin, there is something of a philosophical battle being waged here right now ( no doubt another of Hepcat's intents ) . Should Kitco 1 be an open forum, for a wide variety of dissenting, even extreme, views ? Or should it be a sheltered workshop for goldbugs to while away their hours in the comfort of each other's company ? Bart, I guess that decision is yours to make. I have no preference either way - I'll still lurk and read the posts. I'm afraid I must return to lurking - I have real life work to do ! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:05
panda @>(@): - John Disney -- I posted a couple of items @8:20 and 7:54 about the S.A. mines. Any comments that you have on the stories would be welcome. Thanks.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:05
Slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity): - George Cole..Would appreciate your opinion and everyone else...The CB'S
are saying that there is no inflation? Well I am in the financial services
business and recently more and more of my clients are informing me that
the work force at their companies are going on strike. Now, I really didn't
pay much attention before but, I am hearing this strike business more
frequently. What does that say about wage inflation? Secondly, I am very
interested, as one of our forum participants recently mentioned, that our
news media has completely ignored the currency crisis in Asia. If the
Asian CB'S are meeting tomorrow to determine what they should do, I would
like to present a possible scenario. Japan holding a trillion US$ in debt
decides to start selling off some, in order to get the US$ down a little
to take the pressure off the Baht and other Asian currencies for a short
time. What may happen to the US markets and Gold? I would speculate
all hell might break loose. Your comments would be appreciated.
Best Regards
Slick - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:04
Bridge Thank you>(Thank you): -
Front Thanks. Great site - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 12:00
BillD 1 day of rest...only ONE>(1 day of rest...only ONE): - ALL...PA futures moving back up ... up $2.50 now...karbarator still not working on those ruskee trucks!! Go SWC go!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:57
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To all
I haven't seen them yet, but more mining results will be out tomorrow.
I understand western deep,freegold,vaal reefs, east dagga are good and
elandrand and ergo are not so good. Western deeps cost fell to 288$/oz
from 318$/oz last quarter.
Those Analysts who gleefully await major mine closures here with the RSA mines awash in red ink will be in for a surprise or two.
To those interested in flation - just read that London house prices
are up by 25 per cent in the first 6 months of the year in the face of a
strong pound. With the dmark dissolving and what that would preview for
the direction on the euro currency, I have a problem seeing prices of
hard assets in europe declining ( unless people have no money whatever
even of a weak variety to buy anything more pricey than a loaf of bread ) .
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:48
Reify @Check it out>(@Check it out): - To All- I believe this bull has reached it pinnacle!
For the chartists- look at the latest DJIA weekly chart and tell me what you see? It looks to me like a reversal is taking place before our very eyes.
Precious metals I believe have bottomed and are now testing same. If the scenario continues reversals should start to develop from now on.
With regards to John the childish Hepcat. Enough time and energy and replies have already been wasted. As I've suggested before- it would be a shame to start becoming choosy as to who should post and who shouldn't.
It is far more sensible to not reply to this guys childish outbursts, try ignoring and skipping past his posts, he'll probably dissappear just like some of the other annoyances we have had to put up with from time to time.
I do agree it is good to have someone with a different view point, but there are limits. RJ is a good example of adding some new ideas and thoughts, and he has shown us that he is an experienced player. We all learn from people like him. But let us not confuse a pro with a buffoon.
Have a pleasant weekend y'all. If our strike permits, I should be in London real soon. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:40
Front To Bridge:>(To Bridge:): - Hey Bridge,
I did .... 2 days ago .... Don't read your mail much?
Last time :
Try
http://my.yahoo.com
set up a free account and it's all there in 15 minute delayed.
TTFN - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:32
Front To Bart:>(To Bart:): - Bart:
As you have said, in bold characters, to everyone everytime they sign on to your site :
The content in this group should be related to gold or other precious metals as a commodity, financial instrument, or other tradable asset. Although participants can choose not to reveal their identity, everyone is expected to conduct themselves no differently than when engaged in a real face to face discussion.
If the insane chatter last night had anything to do about Gold, I'm leaving! The problem is that we really don't know, and you can't exactly verify, who is talking to whom. It could be that others are getting annoyed and using alias names as a shield; it could also be that John is talking to himself. Who's to know? Under that umbrella, perhaps it would be best to just throw a blanket over the site and say in general, if you don't observe the above, you're banned ... period ... You don't need this crap, we don't need this crap, and it really is just that ... crap ... Get rid of it ASAP. Use the above as reasoning since we all have to read it every time we enter and get it over with. Start right now. Make the rule. Bounce the first person to break it and let it be known in public who and why you bounced them. That would straighten them and things out in a hurry. Start from scratch right now, that way you can't be seen as being unjust. BUT please so something! Please!
TTFN - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:32
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): - What complete hypocrisy. You, who never post a real name or E-mail address.
You, who write things like shittykitty or won't somebody please put him
out of his misery? You, who posted access to all of my personal information,
who violated me, and then claim that I deserved it. You, who insist on baiting
me, tormenting me, diagnosing me, posting under my handle, and expect me to just sit back and smile beatifically. Who are you making this site safer for?
What kind of site is left when you strong arm or silence anyone who disagrees
with you. Who is right? What does the market tell you? Not what your twisted
mind tells you. What is the most objective milepost availalbe for telling
you who has been right at every step? Kick a rock. Keep kicking rocks.
And keep convincing yourself your toe doesn't hurt. This is a site for
spoiled children. I didn't invite them. I didn't create them. I exposed them.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:14
proof @reponse``>(@reponse``): - The one thing Hepcat has shown is that the people responding to him are worried that their own bullishness is wrong. It also shows which of the regular posters on this forum are legit in their bullishness and not just whistling past the graveyard.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 11:09
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Bart: In the process of scrolling through yesterday's transactions the only impression available was absolute chaos. It was palpable without even reading most of it. In fact, it was impossible to sift the normal discourse from the noise. The distraction simply made concentration impossible.
Restricting access to an open forum is not to be taken lightly. At the same time free speech is not unbounded either. While we are not deciding the fate of nations here, a measure of decorum is expected of everyone in the process of civilized discourse, regardless of their internal passions. It is simply nothing more than the expectation of adult behavior. Those who are unable to control their actions might also benefit from the restriction. It would allow them time to reflect on the nature of cause and effect. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:51
MoreGold @BART >(@BART ): - BART KITNER: I definitely like to see Gold bears post at this site, as it provides balance and provokes some reflection over ones strategy.
John has gone way beyond this point however, and his postings are nothing
more than noise to be skipped over. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:49
vronsky PLACER DOME>(PLACER DOME): - Mike Sheller: I would like to add to your comment: It may be academic to point out ( and rightfully bizarre under the circumstances ) but a true gold pedigree like Placer Dome ( which has a BEAUTIFUL, regal, prosperous horoscope by the way ) is still in a bull market from its lows of the mid 1980's.
Based upon data I had about five years ago ( which may have changed ) Placer Dome was also one of the largest producers of silver in the world. If its silver production has grown apace with its increasing gold production, then Placer Dome is indeed an interesting long-term play - especially based upon your studies.
If anyone has Placer Dome's current silver stats, we would all be interested in seeing them. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:39
korondy Pls@Reply.Here>(Pls@Reply.Here): - Bridge -- Real-time Index Quotes: Click here http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/dbcfiles/indext.html?source=core/dbc
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:34
JIN USEFUL PAGE>(USEFUL PAGE): - To all,
one good site for faster plotting chart,give a go:
http://www.prophetdata.com/financials.html
enjoy it - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:32
Bridge Delayed Index Quotes>(Delayed Index Quotes): -
Could someone please give me a string of quotes to get major maket indices, including xau and xoi? I have access to PC Quotes. Yahoo will be fine also. Thank you - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:27
George Cole Fiend>(Fiend): - From the Fiend's Superbear Page;
-------------------------------------
Fiend Commentary
================
The Case For Inflation
An author known as Milhouse summerized his conclusions of why gold will
be a valuable asset in the future:
The credit expansion of the 1920's culminated in the deflationary
1930's because the government could not introduce enough new money to
fill the gap in the money supply caused by debt defaults. This
occurred because the amount of currency which could be created was
limited by the amont of gold held in official reserves [the Fed
actually had to more than double the discount rate in 1931 during
the Sterling Crisis to keep the gold reserves from flowing outside
the U.S.]. The same limitation [foreigners can no longer exchange
dollars for gold since 1971] does not exist today and I am willing
to bet that the money supply will be increased to whatever level it
needs to be to avoid any meaningful short term economic slow down.
[ the complete article is at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/milhouse705.html ]
When you hear talk about how the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve
will save the financial markets should a collapse occur, Milhouse's
notion of a big surge in the money supply does not seem that
unreasonable. Greenspan will certainly have confidence that he could
pull another save as he did in 1987 after the Crash and his efforts
would have political support from both Republicans and Democrats
( neither of which are interested in solving underlying problems ) .
If you think back to last year's gasoline crisis and all the blabber
mouthing that went on about Americans having to pay an extra buck or
two at the pump, just imagine a crisis where most of the nation's
mutual funds plunge in value. It would be to easy to expand credit
even further to temporarily solve the problem and bring stability back
to the markets in the event of a crash.
Here is a possible scenario:
The economy continues to slow as prices fall ( deflation ) and
more financial assets are sucked into stocks and bonds. Folks
continue to run up debt ( more important to make those mutual
fund contributions ) and save less and less in banks. Somewhere
along the line, the Bull breaks its leg and the stock market
suffers big losses.
Economic growth gets too slow and the political bleatings force
the Fed to cut interest rates. Nevermind that employment levels
are full or that personal debt is already at unmanagable levels,
give the Joes an extra couple of thousand on their credit cards
and all will be well. The Bull's leg is put in a splint and
goes about its merry way.
The first two segments would continue until the limits of the
New Era are reached and inflationary pressure ( because of all
that monetary pumping ) explodes with a vengeance. This is where
gold will show its true colors for the first time in 20 years.
The final phase of the cycle would be deflation as folks finally
lose faith in the ability of the government to keep things
floating. U.S. bonds and most stocks would suddenly become the
worthless pieces of paper that they always were. The Bull's
neck would be broken...
Hmmm...this sounds very similar to the Mississippi Company that the
French government tried to pull off over 250 years ago. This would
make a good subject for Friday's commentary... - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:24
Arly a thought>(a thought): - Bart, rather than bar John, bar the jerks that respond to him.
I can understand John's mentality. I don't understand the mentality of those who respond to him. They're the type who like to pick a scap until it bleeds. Leave it alone and it'll heal and go away. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:19
vronksy nomercy (US Exports-Currency crisis)>(nomercy (US Exports-Currency crisis)): - nomercy: Many thx for posting the extremely interesting article about US exports to Latin America.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 10:19
George Cole The end of the bull?>(The end of the bull?): - Bart: I too would like no more of Hepcat even though I no longer read his posts. His purpose is too destroy this forum via psychological warfare.
How will the stock bull end? Seems to me the vast majority of investors fall into two basic categories:
Those who see the bull continuing indefinitely with nothing more than brief 10% corrections.
Those who know it will end badly, but are sure they will be able to get out in time.
History teaches that neither of these scenarios is probable. Bubbles do not expand forever and tulips do not grow to the sky. Especially with valuations already at historic extremes.
The market did start to turn south about 2 months prior to the 1929 and 1987 crashes, allowing astute technicians to exit in time. But I fear the next crash ( if indeed we are to have one ) will give little or no advance warning. Those looking for a repeat of the pre-crash behavior seen in 1929 and 1987 probably will NOT be able to get out before the deluge hits.
The bible says that excessive pride goeth before the fall. And arrogance and pride are not exactly rare commodities in the financial world today.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 09:50
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com): - RE HEPCAT: Is there anyone out there who DOESN'T want hepcat to lose postng access ? If so, kindly let me know by email.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 09:16
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - DONALD: Back in those days in Wyoming, we called Model A's puddle
jumpers because of unpaved roads and lots of criks to cross. Wonder
how many paper dollars one of those Model A's sells for today? - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 09:08
nomercy US Exports-Currency crisis>(US Exports-Currency crisis): - Just if...the currency crisis spill over to South America, it could be well mean the beginning of the burst ( Morgan Stanley and what US exports to South America mean )
Trade: The Latin Boost to U.S. Exports
Let's just say that what is good for Latin America, is good for the United States. That is one way to
interpret the latest regional/country U.S. export figures, which show Latin America as America's most
dynamic export market. Just how vigorous trade has been this year is underscored by the fact that U.S.
exports to Latin America soared by 20.5% in the first five months of this year from the corresponding
period of 1996. That compares to 8.7% year-over-year growth in total U.S. exports ( these figures are
based on nominal numbers ) .
When U.S. exports to Latin America are excluded from the aggregate, exports grew by only 6% in the
January-May period; interestingly, when both Latin America and Canada are excluded, total U.S.
exports expanded by just 4% in the first five months of this year, or by less than half the aggregate rate.
In other words, U.S. exports are drawing more strength from next door than in other parts of the world.
Indeed, of America's fastest growing export markets in the January-May period, five out of the top ten
were in Latin America. Canada ranked number nine ( this only includes markets where U.S. exports
were $1 billion or higher in the period ) .
That is a critical turn of events given the sharp downturn of U.S. exports to Asia, which accounted for
nearly one-third of total U.S. exports in 1996. Exports to developing Asia rose by just 3.7% in the first
five months of this year, although most of this advance was offset by a 3.8% decline in shipments to
Japan. Net, U.S. exports to Asia rose by a measly 1% in the first five months of this year, following an
unimpressive rise of 4% in 1996. In contrast, U.S. exports to Latin America rose by 13.5% last year,
roughly double the rate ( 6.8% ) of total exports.
By country, U.S. exports to Mexico rose 21.3% over the first five months of 1997 from the same period
a year ago. The surge was even greater to Brazil ( 31.8% ) , Argentina ( 26.6% ) and Venezuela ( 24.3% ) .
Even more interesting are the growth rates of U.S. capital goods exports to the region, which are
available through the first quarter of this year. As a sampling:
1 ) Worldwide U.S. computer exports were flat in the first quarter of this year, although computer
exports to Latin America ( defined as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela ) soared 27.2% in
the first quarter of 1997. This follows a 62% rise in 1996. Latin America took 12% of total U.S.
computer exports last year versus just 4% in 1990.
2 ) Total U.S. exports of computer accessories and peripherals rose by just 3.9% in Q1, but surged
42.4% to Latin America. Last year's growth rate was 25.5%. Thanks to market opening measures in
Brazil, exports of computer accessories nearly doubled between 1994 ( $610 million ) and 1996 ( $1.2
billion ) . Roughly 11% of all U.S. computer peripheral exports went to Latin America in 1996, against a
figure of 6% in 1990.
3 ) The privatization of Latin America's telecommunications industry has led to a corresponding jump in
capital investment. Accordingly, U.S. telecommunications equipment exports to Latin America soared
57.6% in Q1, versus a rise of just 4.3% in total exports. Albeit from a low base, U.S. exports rose by
125.1% to Venezuela in Q1; exports to Brazil were up 90.5% and up 50% to Mexico.
4 ) In the electric equipment and parts category, the story is the same: total exports rose 9.1% in Q1
while those to Latin America were double that rate, 18.3%. Latin America accounted for nearly
one-third of all U.S. exports of electrical equipment in 1996, versus 19% in 1990. This underscores that
U.S. manufacturers have a very strong market hold in the region.
5 ) While U.S. machine tool exports rose by just 4.2% in the first quarter, they climbed 35% to Latin
America in Q1. Exports to Brazil, just $43.3 billion in 1993, totaled $171 million last year, and jumped
another 81% in Q1.
Finally, as icing on the cake, the United States is currently running a trade surplus with Argentina, Brazil
and Chile. Sizable trade deficits remain with Mexico and Venezuela.
The bottom line -- Latin America's cyclical economic rebound, in conjunction with numerous secular
variables ( e.g., trade and investment liberalization ) , have emerged as critical underpins of U.S. export
growth this year. Against this backdrop, one can only hope that Asia's currency virus ( which will result
in slower regional growth and further softness of U.S. exports ) is not passed on to Latin America.
Joe Quinlan ( New York )
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 09:03
nomercy Morgan Stanley>(Morgan Stanley): - Economist David Greenlaw, says markets misinterpreted Greenspan
US: What's the Taylor Rule Saying These Days?
Round two of Fed Chairman Greenspan's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony -- this time in front of the
Senate -- was largely a nonevent for the financial markets. It's clear that Greenspan was not inclined to
go out of his way to put a new spin on his message even though in our view the markets may have
misinterpreted the tea leaves from the Fed.
There was, however, one particularly interesting exchange between Greenspan and Paul Sarbanes ( D,
MD ) . The Senator held up a chart which depicted the recent history of the real federal funds rate ( fed
funds adjusted for inflation ) and noted that the measure has been ticking up of late. Indeed, since the
beginning of this year the real funds rate has risen nearly 100 basis points -- reflecting the 25 bp
tightening triggered by the Fed in March and the 3/4 percentage point deceleration in year/year CPI.
While one could certainly quibble about whether headline or core CPI is the valid input to the real funds
rate gauge over the short run, Greenspan chose another route in his response. The Fed Chairman pointed
out that he was well aware that the funds rate had drifted somewhat higher during the recent
disinflationary environment and opined that the Fed implicitly conducts monetary policy every day not
just when we change the target nominal federal funds rate. Greenspan's response implies that the
recent rise in the real funds rate may be part of a conscious effort by policymakers to implement a
tighter policy. But what might this mean going forward? Even the FOMC's own forecast calls for about
a 1/2 point acceleration in the CPI during 1998 as the favorable effect of the drop in energy prices
dissipates. This would result in a corresponding decline in the real funds rate unless the Fed were to
explicitly hike rates.
All this, of course, assumes that there is an appropriate equilibrium federal funds rate for the economy at
any point in time. A construct aimed at measuring that value which has gained some noticed in recent
years is the Taylor Rule. For the uninitiated, a bit of background might be appropriate. The Taylor
Rule first appeared in a paper entitled Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice published in a
Carnegie-Rochester series on public policy in 1993. The paper is by John Taylor of Stanford who was a
member of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Bush administration.
The Taylor Rule is given by the following relationship:
r = p + 0.5 y + 0.5 ( p - 2 ) + 2
where,
r is the federal funds rate, p is the rate of inflation over the previous four quarters, and y is the percent
deviation of real GDP from potential.
Basically, the relationship says that the Fed should adjust the real funds rate above or below the
presumed neutral rate of 2% according to two factors. First, where the economy is relative to potential
output. Second, where inflation is running relative to a 2% target rate.
What does the rule imply at present? Interestingly, using a 2.5% inflation rate and a -1.5% GDP gap ( as
calculated recently by Steve Roach ) , the Taylor rule suggests that the nominal funds rate should
currently be pegged at precisely 5 1/2%. Hey! Not too bad. However, one reason why we have never
bought into the Taylor gauge hook, line and sinker is that it implies that if the economy is operating at full
potential ( i.e., a zero GDP gap ) and inflation is at its targeted level of 2%, then monetary policy should be
neutral with the funds rate held at 4%. My reading of history is that the upside risks to inflation are much
more severe than the downside risks when the economy is operating at full employment. As a result, a
neutral Fed policy may be too easy at such a stage in the business cycle.
Obviously, if the economy continues to expand in excess of its potential ( or trend ) rate of growth, as we
deem likely, the Taylor rule will point to a need for a higher funds rate. This -- as Greenspan implied in
recent days -- is one reason why the growth side of the equation is still an important input to Fed
policymaking.
David Greenlaw ( New York ) - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:56
aurophile />(/): - Donald: We're poorer now. Credit cards and Ford F150's.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:55
miles @rational>(@rational): - Thursday July 24 4:27 AM EDT
Anglo sees firmer gold in due course
JOHANNESBURG, July 24 ( Reuter ) - Anglo American Corp of South Africa Ltd
said on Thursday it expected the gold
price to firm when speculative short positions in the United States are
squared in due course.
``Since the overwhelming source of the short position lies in the
American market which has a limited time horison in trades of
this sort, we can reasonably expect some relief from the weight over the
market as the speculative shorts are squared in due
course,'' Anglo gold division, Anglogold, marketing director Kelvin
Williams said.
Williams said at a presentation of Anglogold June quarter results that
the group expected the depressed gold price to return to
an equilibrium underpinned by firm physical offtake.
He said gold producers should pay more attention to physical offtake
rather than be spooked by Central Bank selloffs of gold
reserves.
``The fundamentals of supply and demand continue to grow increasingly
favourable for the metal and the relative influence of
individual elements in the mix of supply and demand shows a very
different picture from that painted by journalists and
analysts,'' he added.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - LELAND: I spent a lot of time in New Mexico in 1948-1949. I had never been there before and what struck me most were Silver Dollars and Model A Fords. That was all they used.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:45
nomercy Jobs>(Jobs): - Jobless claims down
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:43
leaner bart.idea1new.channel>(bart.idea1new.channel): - New channel : THE TRENCHS!! Any thing goes except heavy breathing!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:37
Auric Now THIS is the Kitco we know and love>(Now THIS is the Kitco we know and love): -
Nomercy @ 08:19--I'm not sure, but I could have sworn I heard a distinct pop. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:35
Leland leland@netarrant.net>(leland@netarrant.net): - It was 1946 and my father had taken me along on a trip to the Wind River
country in Wyoming. Three of us sitting in a small restaurant, the third
member was a local, a long time friend of Dad's. During the meal, an
Indian walked in the door, the pockets of his blue denim bibs bulging
like they were filled with baloons. After he walked by, Dad's friend
commented that it was payday on the reservation. He further explained
that the tribe's oil royalties were paid in silver dollars, and it was
silver jingling in those bulging pockets. Must be a little gambling
going on in the back room, was the next comment. Like that Indian many
years ago, I enjoy a little gambling with silver and gold. If I lose,
as may have happened to the Indian, NOBODY TWISTED MY ARM.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:33
nomercy The price of an overvalued currency>(The price of an overvalued currency): - An article from today's The Times UK,
Sterling at eight-year high as windfall cash reaches the high
street
©
Shopping boom threat set to
put rates at 7%
BY ALASDAIR MURRAY AND PHILIP BASSETT
THE City is braced for another interest rate rise after retail
sales data pointed to a 1980s-style high steet spending boom.
High street sales increased by an annual rate of 5.4 per cent in
June as windfall related spending boosted sales of big ticket
items.
Market speculation that rates will rise to 7 per cent next month
sent the pound soaring on foreign exchanges. The pound
climbed to DM3.0878 its highest level since September 1989
before slipping in late trade to close up three pfennigs on the
day at DM3.0712. Sterling's trade weighted index also touched
an eight-year high of 106.7, before falling slightly to close up
0.9 on the day at 106.6.
The stock market continued its rebound as Wall Street climbed
higher following Alan Greenspan's positive comments on
Tuesday. The FTSE 100 jumped 85 points in early trading but
finished just 27.8 higher at 4,824.5
New evidence that the high level of the pound is beginning to
seriously hurt exporters emerged in the latest British Chambers
of Commerce quarterly survey that showed export orders
slumping to a five-year low.
Economists said the new data coupled with the latest rise in the
pound would heighten the policy dilemma faced by the Bank
of England over further interest rate rises.
But Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England,
yesterday told the Treasury Select Committee that he viewed
some of the rise in the pound as irrational and erratic. Mr
George insisted that the pound's current strength is as much
connected to political developments surrounding EMU as with
the expectation of further interest rate rises.
Mr George said: The economic cycle explains part of the
reason for the strength but it is mostly associated with
developements in Europe.
The Governor also admitted that the Bank is uncertain as to
the likely impact of windfall payments. But Mr George rejected
the charge of Quentin Davies, Tory MP for Grantham and
Stamford, that the Government should have taken account of
the payouts by raising taxation, insisting the Budget had gone
a long way in the right direction.
Economists said that with the quarterly average growth in high
street sales now showing an annual rate of 5.3 per cent the
highest figure since December 1988 there is a danger that
sales growth could accelerate further. Adam Cole, UK
economist at James Capel, gave warning that there is much
more to come in terms of windfall spending and sales growth is
also strong in other sectors such as clothing and footwear.
Andrew Cates, UK economist at UBS, said: With sterling's
strength doing much to dampen both domestic cost pressures
and export demand, further increases in base rates are not
warranted and would risk a hard landing for the economy next
year.
The separate British Chambers of Commerce study of more
than 9,000 companies showed export prospects dropping
rapidly, with a net balance of 10 per cent of manufacturers
reporting that their forward orders for exports over the next
three months are falling the lowest figure since 1992. But
manufacturers' domestic sales and orders are broadly stable.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - PANDA: That Asia currency stuff is very serious business. Korea is a basket case and when the first domino goes/,//////you know the rest. It takes a few days for the second domino news to get out so stay alert. It will not be confined to Asia.
On M2 money supply at 4:30 this afternoon. This reading used to be important to me but it is flawed in recent years due to the amount of currency circulating overseas. That number is at least $233 Billion. It could be over $300 Billion. I have been stymied on how to read M2 and the Monetary Base lately. I will be out all morning. Check in this PM. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:30
panda @>(@): - Vieserre -- :- ) ) :- ) )
Slave duty calls...... BBL. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:27
Vieserre Predicting Gold>( Predicting Gold): - PANDA: In any point in time or price of a market, there will always be those who will predict it will go higher and those who will predict it will go lower - that is, of course, with the exception of predicting a higher price for gold : )
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:27
panda @high cost mines? Don't be so sure...>(@high cost mines? Don't be so sure...): - Interesting story on Anglo, labor costs, and a goal of $250/ounce gold production.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_16.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:24
Cmax Kitco Vandalism and grafitti on the walls>(Kitco Vandalism and grafitti on the walls): - Mr. Bart Kitner:
I believe that the time has come, when you will need to do something about this hep-cat character that is constantly vandalizing your venerable sight. It is not that I wish to give you suggestions about how to handle your own house, but the quality of your sight is de-generating by the day, and there ARE an awful lot of responsable rational people that invest a considerable amount of time in this site, even though they don't post. As the ONLY person that can rectify this problem, you should consider cutting your losses and taking action, before it's too late.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:20
panda @>(@): - Auric, nomercy -- In FWIW column, on the Nightly Business Report last night, Joe Battapaglia ( sp? ) , said that the stock bull could go on for several more years. He said that the '87 crash had elements that are not present today. Among them; The Dollar was in crisis with the DM. Long Bonds had risen 250 basis points during the year. He said not to fear. There is no currency crisis, and interest rates are going down.
Hello, JOE! All that we would need, is for this currency problem to spill a little further west, via Japan perhaps? Interest rates? I wonder, just how fast could those bonds be sold? How fast could those rates move, and does the average Mutual Fund investor even know what a foreign currency is? These are 'interesting' questions. I'm just pointing out the risk here. I might add, it is a risk that most are totally unaware of... - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:19
nomercy Foreign Debt>(Foreign Debt): - A sign of what happens when the bubble bursts
Somprasong first
to default on debts
http://www.bangkokpost.net/today/2407_busi11.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:16
Mike Sheller obproj@i-2000.com>(obproj@i-2000.com): - AUROPHILE: If you want PDG's 'scope, I'll run one out of the computer for you. Just e me an address where I can mail it. If you act now, I'll throw in a FREE analysis I did on PDG at The Astrological Investor a year ago. But hurry, supplies are limited. My email address above.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:11
Vieserre After the Voting is Over>(After the Voting is Over): - AUROPHILE: I gather that is the question, after this voting is over with, where will the market value these stocks and other stocks - not unlike the casino, bio-tech and other earlier rushes.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:11
Mike Sheller &etc>(&etc): - AUROPHILE: That is not simple minded - it is basic, and sound. A 50% CRB correction , in such a shorter relative time frame vis a vis the advance, indicates a case that there is more to come on the upside. That's why rapid rallies from these gold declines scare me.They are invariably corrections against the trend. I much prefer to see those gently rising staircase bases being formed. The ones that eventually arc into climb the wall rallies.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:10
aurophile />(/): - Mike Sheller: Gracias amigo. Regrettably Bill Meridian doesn't have the PDG chart in his book. Or Barrick.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:08
Auric @home>(@home): -
Panda-Thanks for the news items. It would be interesting to find out how investor demand for gold in Thailand has been affected by the currency situation there. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:08
nomercy currency woes>(currency woes): - Two articles reported in today's Bloomberg News..
Southeast Asian Currencies Fall for 2nd Day as Baht Declines
Southeast Asian currencies fell for a second day, on concern that they may be attacked amid problems at Thailand's banks. The
baht fell to about 32.2 per U.S. dollar, from 31.6 yesterday. Thailand's banks and finance companies face mounting bad loans as
the country experiences its slowest economic growth in a decade. Among Southeast Asian currencies, the Indonesian rupiah fell
as much as 1.4 percent, to 2,625 per U.S. dollar. It was recently traded at 2,605 per dollar, paring some of its losses, as investors
worry that the Indonesian central bank may intervene in the market to prop up the rupiah, Chandra of Bank Tiara said.
Korea to Deposit 1.5 Trillion Won With Banks, Merchant Banks
South Korea's Ministry of Finance & Economy said the government will deposit 1.5 trillion won ( $1.68 billion ) with banks and
merchant banks for 15 days, starting Monday, to ease a cash crunch. Creditor banks and merchant banks of Kia Group decided
last week to freeze its $10 billion of debt to prevent bankruptcy. The government said 1 trillion won will go to 32 banks and the
remaining 500 billion won to merchant banks. It's the first time in 15 years that the government has taken action to ease tight
liquidity at merchant banks. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:05
panda @end.of.week.calendar>(@end.of.week.calendar): - Jobless claims at 8:30 A.M. Today.
M2 money supply at 4:30 P.M. Today.
For Friday, Durable goods and existing homes sales..... - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:03
Mike Sheller @etc>(@etc): - SPEED: Amen, Borother. AUROPHILE: Amen, Brother. The strategy you outlined for long deferred gold contracts may turn out to be the most brilliant play. My astrological work indicates a crisis year in 2000, and a monster year for silver in 2003, based on all the historical correlations I've been able to whip together. Thus, can gold be far behind? And whether I turn out to be in error is beside the point. What with current softness, and what I see as final weakness in gold coming this fall/winter ( may or may not be at lower prices ) , the turn of the year should be a very compelling time to assess enlarging share positions and taking on far-out futures. It may be academic to point out ( and rightfully bizarre under the circumstances ) but a true gold pedigree like Placer Dome ( which has a BEAUTIFUL, regal, prosperous horoscope by the way ) is still in a bull market from its lows of the mid 1980's. It seems to have completed a fourth wave, which might indicate a rally ahead for gold, a reaction to test these lows, perhaps a bit above them, and then the final base put in. This base will apply to all gold shares and the bullion. I would be more confident if gold could get back above 340. If it comes up and tests 340 and reverses, I would be concerned. If it made new lows from here, I would have to rethink the whole structure I see forming.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 08:03
aurophile />(/): - Vieserre: The market is efficiently manic. But when is it sufficiently manic?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:56
Vieserre Is the Market Efficient>(Is the Market Efficient): - Aurophile: Under a most elementary analysis, it is illogical to have ie steel, aluminum and autos stocks rising in unison unless each can generate greater profits and this would seem to predict greater prices, greater productivity notwithstanding, unless of course the market is merely raising the PEs on these stocks regardless of performance, or the market is wrong.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:54
panda @for.those.who.don't.have.the.time.to.look.>(@for.those.who.don't.have.the.time.to.look.): - South African mines consolidating?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_5.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/sthvy_y00_1.html
It isn't over yet in Thailand.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0004_z00_1.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:50
aurophile />(/): - Vieserre: I believe your analysis of commodity prices is correct. Also from a simple-minded technical perspective, the CRB Index ( futures ) has corrected ~ 50% of its 1993/96 gain in about 15 months, which is about 40% of the time it took to go up.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:50
nomercy South Africa's woes>(South Africa's woes): - The CB's meddling in gold prices, to these depressed levels, may prove to be staggering to South Africa's and Australia's unemployment woes. I guess they're the sacrificial lambs to keep the bubble going?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_12.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:49
panda @The.Anglo.Story>(@The.Anglo.Story): - Anglo sees firmer gold in due course.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0023_z00_7.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:46
BillD Mike's 06:57>(Mike's 06:57): - BART....BART...I agree with mike Sheller's 06:57...it's time to act!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:45
aurophile />(/): - Vieserre: I believe your analysis of commodity prices is correct. Also from a simple-minded technical perspective, the CRB Index ( futures ) has corrected ~ 50% of its 1993/96 gain in about 15 months, which is about 40% of the time it took to go up.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:45
panda @the.fallout.continues...>(@the.fallout.continues...): - Food for thought.....
Thai government defaults on rubber purchase.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/07/24/y0021_z00_3.html - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:41
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): -
Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:37
Mike Sheller ( @Bart ) :
BART: For what it's worth......
Mike I'm with you 100% - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:37
nomercy Templeton Fund>(Templeton Fund): - Templeton president, Mark Holowesko, is quoted in today's Toronto Star
while we are not yet at the financial-bubble stage, we are not far from it. Financial bubbles eventually become unsustainable, and of the most disturbing signs is when a huge level of debt is supporting prices
He points to some worrying facts in the United States.
1. American households currently have more money invested in stocks than equity in homes.
2. Common stocks represent a greater portion of the net worth of U.S. households than ever before.
3. Margin loans to buy stocks are valued at 2% of the value of U.S. economic production, a higher level than has ever been seen.
He also disturbed by a blind,flight to quality in the US stock market. People think they are not taking a risk, becuse they're investing in so-called quality stocks, but these stocks are incredibly risky at these prices.
Templeton organization has dramatically reduced its holdings in North America. The percentage of U.S. assets has dropped to about 22% from 55% three years ago, and he's still reducing that proportion.
For the record Templeton is having a conference meeting today, which is the largest annual meeting ever held in North America. The $8 billion Templeton Growth Fund, is the largest mutual fund in Canada , has achieved a 15.5% average annual compound growth rate since its introduction in 1954.
Templeton funds, for example made great returns in the Japanese market in the 1980's but sold all Japanese stocks, a few years bedore the market peaked in 1989.
Our first rule of thumb is not to lose money Holowesko says.
First Soros, now Templeton's . Is anybody listening?
Buy gold! - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:33
Speed the morning poll>(the morning poll): - My last post was several days ago. This forum is being tagged by a vandal. For this mornings reflection, I submit the following from the book of Proverbs:
Do not answer a fool according to his folly lest you be like him.
Answer a fool according as his folly deserves lest he be wise in his own eyes. ( kick him out )
A bridle for the horse, a whip for the ass and a rod for the backs of fools. It is well within the bounds of wisdom to apply the rod, Bart.
Mike Sheller: That's better than tossing an empty beer bottle, I think.
Schippi: The FSAGX charts are helpful, thanks. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:27
Vieserre A Possible Summer Rally>(A Possible Summer Rally): - BJ FISHER: Your comment that the advantage gold stocks have is the number of ways of determining peformance, particularly in measuring the performance of the stocks relative to bullion, is the principal reason I am attracted to investing in them. And although there is certainly no assurance that it will occur, in observing this measurement, at least as of the close yesterday, I am in accord with your view that a summer rally is probable.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:19
Vieserre home>(home): - Aurophile, BJ Fisher: I am happen to be passing by this morning, and noticed your posts on commodities and inflation and would appreciate your views on the following observance. The metal equties, particularly copper and Aluminum, are doing well, the cyclicals paper, autos, steel etc., have come to life, and oil and oil service stocks are still doing well - despite diverging respective commodity prices. Now this can be attributed to a lift from the overall market, but in my experience in would more likely be due to higher commodity prices ahead on which these particular stocks depend for performance. Not unlike BJs views on HM and bullion.
In addition, the embullient US and European stock markets would suggest stong economic growth in the months ahead, which ties in with the US cyclicals. And the strong dollar of course has inflationary consequences for those currencies which are lowered by it. Therefore, the logical consequence of the above is that prices for at least industrial commodities are more likely to increase than decrease in the US as well as Globally. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:14
panda @>(@): - Well, I finally got my Tele Charts back up and running. It seems as though Worden brothers had some kind of error in the data that they sent everbody. Either that, or it was,... a date problem? ( Y2K, Oh no! )
Check the Reuters site here; http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/ There are a few stories on the South African mines apparently merging and one that had a rockburst that resulted in death ( s ) . Vaal Reefs is consolidating, it looks like. Things are shifting. There's a story there from Anglo about how the huge short position, IN AMERICA, is what is depressing the price of gold. Strange times indeed.
TED -- Have fun on your trip to the 'island'. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 07:08
Schippi Schippi@geocities.com>(Schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70.htm
Attention all Martians, the above URL is NEW. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:55
aurophile gaping@chart>(gaping@chart): - BB Fisher: Of course the most astounding feature of your Dow Jones Spot Commodity chart, and which I assumed was the one you were testing us all on, is the fact that it has THIS YEAR made a double top ( well.....almost ) with its 1980 top while the futures indices ( CRB futures for instance ) remain far below their own 1980 peaks ( 337.60 vs 236 for the CRB ) .
This speaks to the point that D.A. was hinting at yesterday. Namely that we HAVE inflation, but the markets have become convinced that we DON'T due to constant jawboning by the ruling elite that all is well. Therefore inflation premia have been bled from the system even as inflation continues.
A question begging for an answer is whether this state of affairs implies that all the big boys are totally hedged in derivatives or are merely relying on the big lie--ooops, I mean the massaging of public opinion-- to do their work.
One of the best ways to play this might be to lay on lightly margined far distant futures positions,for example the June 2002 Comex gold contract which recently opened for business. Apparently someone else has the same idea as the volume and open interest for this contract is not bad for so early in its infancy. Anyway, one could do this also with crude, copper, wheat, etc. For those who have given up on picking just the right gold stock for fear of getting yet another turkey, this might be an attractive alternative and with as much or as little leverage as one wishes. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:53
Auric Still a Kitcoite>(Still a Kitcoite): -
FWIW: Being mostly libertarian, this goes against my grain, but I agree that the person in question has abused the privileges here and definitely violated net etiquette. Such behavior would not be tolerated in a real life gathering. I side with Mike Sheller, Ted and others on this question. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:37
Mike Sheller @Bart>(@Bart): - BART: For what it's worth, I just spent an hour scrolling through the wreckage of a wonderful site gone sour. Not because goldbugs were right, or wrong, but because someone doesn't know how to play well with others in the same sandbox. While I readily accept that the ups and downs of Kitco should reflect the fluctuations of everyday life ( some days are good, some are bad ) and that there is also a place for the inane details of our lives we all share, I suspect things have veered off in a direction that effaces the general dignity and lustre of this forum. The disruptive force in question himself once wrote, quite brilliantly, Today's real men keep the flowers and send the bill. Judging from his considerable talents, I suspect he has been keeping the flowers and sending US the bill. I for one would rather have the flowers, and I certainly won't pay the bill. Whether or not this is a true case of sickness, or can be easily controlled, and thus is simple vindictiveness, matters not. It is like visiting a good friend's house who has an animal that shits and pisses all over the floor. After a while, you don't want to go there any more. Even when you avoid stepping in it, you can't get away from the stink. It's YOUR house Bart. It was once a very inviting and proud structure. I am trusting you to know when to pull the trigger, man.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:22
the wizard @ oz>(@ oz): - Thanks for the Homestake chart.
HM will be above $24/sh. nlt than the first quarter of '98. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 06:07
aurophile awake@nite>(awake@nite): - BB Fisher: After I read your essay on the psychotherapeutic value of chatting, I decided to chat 25 hours per day non-stop... ( 8^ ) ///Ya, I got a ####load of old Homestake. On a trip through the Black Hills a few years back I made a pilgrimage to that oldie goldie. If you put $100,000 into it and it sits on its chair for three years, you have only lost about $15,000 in opportunity cost, and according to the Feds only about $6000 more in inflation cost. Thus Homie only has to go up 27% from that point to get you even. I agree that this outperforms most options strategies. Of course you could have been selling options on it all along, unless you bought it with the idea that it might go up someday. Nah. No one buys gold stocks with the idea of capital gains.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:51
. .>(.): - Joe: http://quote.yahoo.com/intlmarkets
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:48
bb fisher homestake chart for all>(homestake chart for all): - aurophile:
my we're up early! : )
see chart below: my graphic sense is improving : )
it must appreciated that unless and until homestake mining penetrates the dark red downtrend line from the 94 highs all you should expect is a countertrend rally in a bear market. agreed, from here and even from 14 a rally to the 17-18.5 level offers lovely per cent profit.. but it is still a bear market rally.
if 19 is NOT broken decisively on the upcoming rally likely to commence
well before official end of summer sell the rally and await another downleg lasting well into late 98 or early 99 at or near the lower/lowest? jagged trendlines.
we all may not like this potential but charts don't lie. from this juncture option buying, i think, is high risk for little reward unless your timing is spot on and you elect to go after the shortest term calls with lowest intrinsic value that fit within the trendlines drawn and time frame implied. a fools wager in my opinion.
you've been warned.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:39
Joe2 @>(@): -
er, heh heh, my mistake. The DAX figure was from 7-23. EBN has not updated it for today. ( never mind ) - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:32
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net): - BB Fisher: James Dines used to ( still does? ) refer to that formation in your Dow Jones Commodity Index chart as a megaphone top. Edwards and Magee ( Technical Analysis of Stock Trends ) call it a broadening top. This particular one also fits into the broadening top sub category called the five point reversal, where each of 3 successive tops is higher and each of 2 successive interspersed lows is lower. Welles Wilder, of DMI and parabolic SAR fame, called it the Reverse Point Wave ( RPW ) and charged about $100 for a trading system using it in the late 1970's/ early 1980's ( before he went big time with Delta stuff and other big ticket items ) . All of these famous folk considered it a reversal pattern, whether at highs or lows. My own experience is that it is a reversal pattern about 50% of the time and that moves out of one of these reverse triangles in either direction are not nearly so dramatic as the pattern itself would lead one to expect. But I sense that you wanted to direct our attention to commodity prices in general?
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:22
Joe2 @>(@): -
Jeez o Pete! EBN has the DAX ( Germany's stock market ) up ANOTHER 3.9% this A.M. What in the H-E-double-hockey-sticks is going on in Europe? Anyone got a chart of that? It's got to be parabolic at this point. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:14
WW @NE>(@NE): - On Sunday I predicted gold south of 320 by Friday. Lets hope ( I hate that word ) we get there today and rebound. This is the 4th down day in a row so a bounce may be coming soon. However, if we break 319 then retest low likely. Scary that we coming down into friday, which is a signature dayfor Wall St in the money flow game, as we know what friday usually means for gold. Last fridays rally was probably allowed so they could do a number on it while Greenspan was speaking. The latter point was my reason for predicting the down move ie a show of confidence. On a positive note gold appears to be moving inversely to the bubble stk mkt/ this has to be good at some point. last thurs and fri gold/up and mkt tanks and Mon thru wed gold down and mkt up. If the dow is ready to fizzle may be this down in gold will just be a correction. Given the extremely bullish commitment of traders this weakness in the PMs is truly amazing. However, given last friday's mkt reaction to a two day spike in gold I am sure there has been some Wall St selling in the gold paper mkt. We will certainly see/ maybe a reversal today after a fibonacci retracement of the first rebound in gold.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 05:01
TED @BART>(@BART): - Bart:You are in the process of losing what was ONCE a great site...To Scaterie Island and oh by the way....EBN GOLD DOWN 1.65...
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 04:51
TED @geff>(@geff): - And a great mornin to you Geff!...The closest point of Scaterie Island is eight miles away and the most distant point is approx. 12 miles away ( East Point ) and it's so clear you can see the roof-line of the deserted house at East Point...kind of makes the juvenile drivel that has evolved on this site....INSIGNIFICANT....
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 04:43
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - Mornin Ted--Good luck on your expidition. Hopefully the early goldbug catches the pieces of eight.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 04:38
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - RJ--Thanks for the info on fuel cells. It is truely a breath of fresh air to come across posts like yours for the edification of precious metal analysts.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 04:38
TED @sunrise>(@sunrise): - EBN Gold down 1.55 and Silver down three cents...What a beautiful sunrise and a great day to be ALIVE...Am up early in preparation for kayak to Scaterie Island ( 8 miles ) and a little gold hunting....Scaterie Island now deserted was one referred to as infamous Scaterie Island for the number of ship wrecks off its rocky coast...the most Eastern point of Nova Scotia....To this day old coins are found on its infrequent sandy beaches
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 04:11
bb fisher help@please>(help@please): - can anyone interpet the technical formation on this chart. i seem to remember it has signifciance but i can not remeber what it is. the chart is the dow jones spot commodity index
help!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 03:57
Auric @home>(@home): -
A follow up to bb fisher's post on gold stocks. You can adapt this to any U.S. stock in the time frame of your choice. Check it out! http://www.tscn.com/wsc/timespan.html?TSym=HM?322,17 - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 03:43
Auric @look before you LEAP>(@look before you LEAP): -
bb fisher: Thanks for the continued thought provoking posts. I expect that will stimulate some discussion. Anyone have any thoughts on Homestake LEAPs? They have some that expire in Jan. 99. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 03:38
bb fisher i for@one>(i for@one): - think.
if this amazing internet that all allows us to communicate in real time from the far corners of the globe allows just one individual to satisfy there need for attention, allow them to spew out their frustration, anger, hostility and guilt rather buying an automatic weapon and wiping out a post office or a fast food reastaraunt or playing God in clock tower, humanity has surely made progress and we are all better off in the long run. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 03:25
bb fisher push me@pull you>(push me@pull you): - these ideas must be viewed with good charts to fully appreciate the point.
the gold market unlike the general share market offers the buyer or seller 2 rather than just 1 points of reference with which to guage a bottom or a top.
experience has shown me that gold shares invariably bottom before the bullion its itself. true the shares may form a series of bottoms culminating with the final bottom simultaneous to bullion but this is misleading.
take homestake mining for example: during 1996 it ran up to 20 a share and topped out in late may 1996. the month of june and part of july saw the brunt of the % decline. the important fact to note and this is the tip off. invaraibly when a decline commences some shares in a group will have their values slashed meat ax style whilst others will hold up a while so as not to destroy the index averages all at once but rather water torture style. so in 1996 we had companies like homestake complete their decline ( for all practical purposes ) by october 1996 when it touched 13.5 a share. whilst barrick and newmont and placer continued eroding slowly letting the air out of the gold share average tire.
my point is this, when homestake reached 13.5 in october 96 gold bullion was still in the 370's. homestake is unhedged ergo the decline in gold bullion since should have badly deflated homstake further.. yet it did not. homestake to day is virtually where it was in october 1996 with a brief trip a point lower to the 12.5 area.
the dual nature of this gold share/gold bullion market offers us the opportunity to recheck our assumptions from 2 rather than one vantage points.
clearly homestake reahced wholesale levels in october 1996. barick did not till february at 21 and change. the fact that a major mining company like homestake has been bouncing around essentially marking time waiting for bullion to finish up before the next rally comences.
in the silver arena take a look at the chart of hecla mines. this company has been around since the 19th century spewing out silver from the same stand in idaho. in late 95 they announced that their newest mine contained only a fraction of the gold they expected ( how did that happen? ) . the share price collapsed from 13+ to 6 plus in 2 weeks on ENORMOUS volume. in the intervening 2 years the share has bounced around but has never gone lower than 5 a share even though both gold and silver have been decimated in the same period.
are these 2 situations mere anomalies. no indeed there are many other examples of exactly the same behavior. obviously the xau and other averages have been pummeled since. this reality is the work of only a few of their components. the exact same thing happens in the general market only in reverse when a few dow components or a few s&p 500 components constitute the bulk of the rallying or declining force in the averages.
a smokescreen to persuade the investor to look the other way, away from the action to a diversion. much as a magician makes his audience do.
it has been my experience that once a share reaches a point in price where huge volume comes in on the down or upside the price from that point on is severely proscribed unless the issue is in a special situation or constitues a VITAL component of an average in which case its lattitude for future movement is more relaxed. you will note that only the largest cap stocks make up this situatiion. this is necessary if massive accumulations and or short positions are to be obtained without hampering the normal float in the trading. find a smaller cap share and one that is not a critical component of an average and massive down or upside volume invariably caps or halts the move. if the essence of the company is sound all that remains is to wait for the inevitable decline or rally to follow.
i think homestake is a giveaway at these levels as is hecla.
bullions decline has been severe for futures traders to be sure. however if you bought homestake last fall at 14 or hecla at 6+- has this big drop in bullion made a major dent in your portfolio. clearly no. so either these 2 shares are going to decline much more sometime in the future if bullion declines further or bullion is going to rally which the absence of downside volatility in these 2 among many other shares has foretold. the longer they remain range bound the more likely that resolution will be to the upside.
when the trader/investor buys options rather than writes them he/she forecloses all the benfits of time and patience. the same happens with margin. the clock ticks and churning as homestake and hecla have done these past year or so works against the trader/investor and interrupts the balance in their pysche because of that constant tick tick of the interest clock or the imminent expiration of the option.
the choice is yours. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 02:32
Jack DA>(DA): -
DA: First class post at ( 19:25 on 7/23 )
It says an awful lot.
I've always liked the grey metal and watched its movements and have a question.
Why do the base metals, many times with inventories available ( zinc was formerly an exception ) go up, while the PM's with huge deficits, go down?
I know gold has possible CB sales hanging over it, but most would be -or are- nuts to sell, while silver is a vastly different story.
My feeling is that someone is working against them, especially gold, with all the negative press.
I don't want a Soros to make it move, as he is just as soon to short it. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 01:20
Jack Electric Fuel>(Electric Fuel): -
Check out ( EFCX ) Electic fuel Corp., whose Zinc-Air batteries are said to have propelled good sized vehicles over 400 kilometers at about 45kph. They have a unique reloading system adoptable to fleet type use. Many EU lands are looking into their technology. Best to get their press releases on Yahoo and then call. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 01:10
Jack I forgot Earl>(I forgot Earl): -
Mary-Rose: but he's to busy trying to keep the place honest. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 01:03
Jack Mary-Rose>(Mary-Rose): -
Mary-Rose: Don't let it get to you. I remember; as a teen-age kid, i said that gold would go to $105, it was just before the time that Nixon made it legal ( Can you imagine the term __making it legal?; sounds like a habit forming drug. ) .
Everyone said that I was nuts. After the price went many times higher, even I thought that.
I've done fairly well since.
Never get out at a bottom, especially in gold mining shares with production.
Remember gold and gold shares are capable of great leaps.
The non-gold stock markets are a bit high to go into.
For your own portfolio, go over the companies closely; if after that you still like them - hold on.
Also pay attention only to the posts you like and if I may suggest, those of Viesserie ( sorry for the spelling error ) , Eldorado, Arden, Panda, WW and all of the guro's.
For good honest laughs - check out Bernatz de Ventedorm.
Remember, though make up your own mind. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 01:02
DJ Meanwhile ...>(Meanwhile ...): - For those still interested in discussing the gold market, Bart's chart just showed gold ticking up $1.80. Not sure, but this looks like our friends in India checking in.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:59
rkm rkm@harborside.com>(rkm@harborside.com): - I agree with your lst post. A small IC motor [diesel] tweaked to run at one speed and produce the 8-10 hp. needed to get most cars down the road will actually yield about 75 mpg. This motor will charge the battery pack needed for acceleration etc. However a fuel cell using platinum may well do the same job and of course benefit all of us.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:57
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - John. Do you really get a kick out of destroying a great forum.
This site was an interesting site full of comments and a mine of information. Now it is turning into a garbage heap. All to the thanks of you. You must enjoy and feel satisfied for what you have done otherwise you would have slowed up or ceased your attacks. Do you not realise that life will go on if you are not here. Therefore why do you persist? If not for the satisfaction of creating disharmony. BEGONE!!!
Go and read Kahil Gilbran
Avoid loud and agressive people for they are vexations to the spirit
You are of the above and should be removed before no one comes here to discuss what they come here for.
You have been kicked off other sites for what you now do here.
Obviously it is an EGO TRIP and you enjoy it. But why do it at all?
People like you help to make this world we live in a worse place to be.
I would really hate to be like you, to know you or even to be in a room with you. Especially with your bent ego. You are a destroyer and no more.
BEEEEEEEEEEEGGGGGGGGGOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNE !!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:33
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): - I can't believe that someone else is using my handle.
I'm the biggest of gold bulls and I've been increasing
my purchases as gold heads south. Now is the time
to accumulate the real store of wealth. - Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:19
rkm rkm@harborside.com>(rkm@harborside.com): - If you truly want to restore a semblence of sanity to this forum then just email bart and encourage him to use his power, to curtail for a period of time, those who insist on fighting.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:11
Earl @worldaccessnet,com>(@worldaccessnet,com): - RJ ( 22:32 ) : Hybrids. Small IC engine to keep modest battery capacity at full charge. Short term accelleration is provided by the batteries. Engine operates at optimum efficiency. Best of all worlds for the forseeable future. Coulda shoulda been done 10 years ago. Instead the commuter continues to fire 8 cylinders when he really only needs 2.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:04
PB --->(---): - Earl: Probably not something to be proud of. Good night all.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:01
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - I'm so Ashamed: Judged by a sampling of the monographs available at that URL, if he can't cure it, he will talk it to death. Uncommonly common drivel from the narcissistically inclined. Issue of an inward focus. As in: Here look at my 'inny' isn't it just wonderful. ....... But he is, after all, published. ...... Even more accomplished than I am at pumping up 2 cents worth of substance into 10 pounds of nothing.
- Date: Thu Jul 24 1997 00:01
PB --->(---): - Savage: I agree with you. Acknowledging the cat's presence encourages him, and I, who usually lurk, am guilty of this sin too. Back to the matter at hand.
