Gold Discussion for Investors and Market Analysts

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:59
TED @bedtimeforbonzo>(@bedtimeforbonzo):

EBN Gold has been gaining strength tonight and has now turned the corner into positive territory...up .20!...Goodnight all....you too Tarnished!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:55
TED @tort>(@tort):

Tort: Got yer missive and I ain't no heavyweight either...Great description of last nights game!...were my thoughts....exactly!...Good luck with the broker...REB: Hats off to MJ!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:50
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

Nailz ( 23:40 ) Good post...I've made the same mistake in the past by focusing on something in particular and waiting...and waiting...but the time just wasn't right for that trade or investment...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:44
Eldorado @the question>(@the question):

Panda -- Re: your chart of 21:58; FWIW, There's a lot of ways to draw a line. You are right in that there is good support at that level. Doesn't particularly mean that it won't be busted in a fairly quick spike, or something more severe. It should be a good place to buy though. Any failure should be quickly, and maybe fairly inexpensively, be rectified IMHO. Some of us though are expecting some lower numbers. Perhaps, or not, they'll show up. But, presumably, your chart line wouldn't be off by far I think. But, I still like a spike, wherever it might go! Good Trading!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:40
nailz AMEN TO EARL>(AMEN TO EARL):

EARL.....AMEN !!!!! To capitalize to the maximum, we must be traders. There is money to be made in the markets at all times. Up and down. Grains and metals. Stocks and bonds. Meats and woods. There is a time and place for all commodities to shine and the same for all to be tarnished. The greatest mistake in my trading career is to become focused on one commmodity to the point of excluding the rest. We must continually have an eye toward those shining, but also to be considering our next play. That is a lesson learned from many years, some as a trader of the markets and some as a narrow minded person focusing on one area and waiting for its return to the limelight.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:39
TED @Capebreton>(@Capebreton):

EBN Gold @ UNCH and Silver down a cent....Front: I get unknown extension on file when I click on yer thingy....Steve Puetz ( 21:46 ) maybe I'm too laid back...hahahahaha!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:37
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):

Bernie: Sorry chap - I'd surprise you. I had lunch with a
guy from Austrialia a few years ago. Texas BBQ from the Exxon gas
station in Junction Texas. He was picking my brain about a new recycling
technology we were developing. I wish I could remember his name - he was
chairman of the board of one of the largest companies in Austrialia.
He got his start in the cattle business - I remember something about the
ranch being the largest single cattle ranch in the world! When you're in
Texas - that's saying something. Maybe someone from downunder can help
me out. He would be close to 85-90 today. What are the 5 largest
publicly traded companies in Austrialia? His net worth was above 3 billion I was told.

Oh yea, he was searching the world looking for recycling technologies
to bring back to Austrialia. He said waste/garabage is a huge problem
there. I don't think he was there looking to make a buck - he was trying
to help. No one goes to Junction to make a buck. He was really
nice. If I wasn't told who he was or see the limo he drove up in I would
of taken him for a local. He did talk funny though.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:29
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

Looks like a local double bottom. Possible BUY point!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

D.A.: I harbor mixed emotions over your earlier comments regarding the recent level of goldbug solidarity. I am posting this in response to your comments but it really is an impersonal statement of opinion to all hands. A goldbug manifesto more than anything else.

The passions seem to me to running at familiar levels. The thread has been genuinely positive for the past week or so with a great deal of new opinion to pass through the filters. Judged various reactions, some was readily digested and some others were akin to pulling an elephant through a knothole. As it should be.

New thoughts regarding the near term state of gold seem to be accepted in a neutral sense. At the same time its a good thing for closely held opinions to given a good shake now and then. Mencken once said that a friend is Someone who shares the same superstitions. There is a real danger to becoming friendly if it means that we are unable to accept new superstitions. .... Rancor is obviously not the converse.

I have been a goldbug for far longer than it should be healthy to be one. I made a chamber pot full of money on gold stocks in 1993 and rode them right over the top and down again. Why? Because I'm ( was ) a died in the wool goldbug. Now, I'm a goldbug ( PMbug ) ONLY because it is be the place to be for some time to come. But I no longer clasp it to my bosom. It's all trade bait. To be bought and sold as circumstances dictate.

If we are truly headed for economic upheaval, then it would be prudent to consider PMs a long term hold. Maybe. If not then it becomes merely another trading vehicle. The only thing that should be bought and held, without regard to the future, is a cemetary plot. IMO.

My opinions have changed and will continue to change, in large part because of the great minds and opinions expressed in this forum and your's are among the best. If we have a lick of good sense, we will learn, more than we deserve, from those who violate our sense of comfort and order. Occasionally, we are also served well by those with whom we disagree. It would bother me a great deal to know that someone else would make the same mistakes, boneheaded mistakes, that I have made in the past because he did not have access to the best that others have to offer.

For the world of precious metals and a whole lot more, there is nothing in the known universe that compares with this forum. If it doesn't appear here, it will likely not appear anywhere else. I only wish it had been available in 92 and 93. If it had been, I would be able to present with a larger case of arrogance than is presently possible.

In the end, an honest difference of opinion regarding PMs; is far, far better than a continuous thread conducted by loose cannons posturing as champions of the downtrodden and/or the guarantors of our liberties,.... sans pro bono. Of course.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:27
nailz XAU CLOSE>(XAU CLOSE):

The only 2 XAU stocks doing well today on the close were BMG and NEM...XAU up almost.70 with gold down $2++....That added to option expiration day tomorrow made it smell fishy to me....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:26
Vieserre home>(home):

EARL ET AL: I try not to post on the technical side of the market, preferring to leave that to those more skilled. But I would like to pass these comments on for your consideration.

Dow and S&P are making new highs in a parabolic sweep that have reached vertical lift while the Utilities have yet to come close to matching their 93 highs and the technology leaders which represent the major growth in the GDP are being distributed, displaying a pattern and cause for at least a sharp correction in the Dow.

News on what the FED will be doing in early July will begin to emerge in the Media. Although all present price reports makes for a rosy looking economy, the FED must consider the effect of emerging signs of impending inflation rising from an over-heated labor market, GDP output gap and wealth brought about by a sharply rising stock market which normally takes 12 months or more before being reflected in the PPI an CPI. What is FED to do? If it does nothing, these inflation forces will have more time to grow and the FED incurs the risk of being behind in the yield curve. In addition, the market will likely continue its irrational exuberance, if I may use this now trite phrase, making it more difficult to control any correction and the FED itself will increasing look like it has relaxed its guard against inflation and pandering to the political wing. If the FED surprises the market and elects to raise rates, how will this affect the afterburners of the Dow skyrocket and cannot the FED be concerned about being blamed for any blowout.

The XAU has been generally in a horizontal trading pattern since early may while bullion has been downtrending and the stock market rising. While bullion and silver settled near intermediate trend lows today, the XAU diverged higher and closed near its daily high and significantly higher from its recent low of 90+ and is approaching upper resistance of 106 with gold off over $2.00.

To me, these are all bullish possiblities for the metal. I take the approach that equities demonstrate a view of the longer term horizon while bullion the near term horizon. And IMO the recent relative peformance of the XAU should not be overlooked as it may be evidencing that investors with a longer term view are beginning to accumulate notwithstanding falling bullion, falling silver, an exuberant rising market, falling oil, rising bonds, declining CRB, and a parade of modest to low numbers on present inflation.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:15 QT @>(@):

EWP,,, I suppose it's too late to point out to you that it is only under the gracious beneficent protection , nuturing ethics of liberty and freedom which the Government provides your billionaire that he has his ability to exist. The Government allows him to exist. The Government can, and they are fickle creatures, these, choose otherwise.
All this take it-for-granted, feel-good pop culture shooting the mouth from the hip jingoism is too much to bear at times. It is dull and lacks vigor. I wish you'd stop it. It's beneath you. Think things through and then post something a bit more cogent, will you?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:12
Bernie Tax the 1%>(Tax the 1%):

EWP....A million people with 1million ( 1 billion ) also creates jobs and spends it in the private sector, probably much more efficiently and FAIRLY than the billionaire. I do not believe taxing the 1% super rich will create future obligations for the bottom 99%.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:07
nailz INTERESTING DAY FOR GOLD>(INTERESTING DAY FOR GOLD):

Couldn't believe XAU was running up on the end and just had to take a stab on the short side....With tomorrow being settlement on the options, figured the big boys had some options they needed to zero out at 105... Oh well guess tomorrow will tell....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:01
EWP EWP>(EWP):

WW: and in 5 years that VAT becomes 0.25 and so on and so on ( and outpacing inflation ) .

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 23:00
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Nighty night all ... don't let the goldbugs bite.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:59 WW @New england>(@New england):

A 5-10cent VAT on everything would do alot more than the trick. Go figure the numbers based on the economy. Th problem is easily solved with the appropriate political will.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:57
EWP EWP>(EWP):

to Bernie .. Sanders or Ward?

A man with a billion dollars creates jobs or spends it in the private sector of the economy. A govt. with a billion dollars creates future obligation for the taxpayers.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:55 WW @New England>(@New England):

GO Bernie!!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:54
EWP EWP>(EWP):

What about the fundamental actuarial problems of the system? You never answer those questions ( i.e. Does a current recipient get more than they put in, etc. ) .

A small tax that noone will feel? What small tax can come up with the money needed for the unfunded liabilities and the use of surplus funds?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:49
Bernie The 1%>(The 1%):

Whenever I hear on this discussion group how sorry we are for those
young people who must pay for current retirees who have not contributed
enough to pay for their entitlements..... it makes me SICK. WW has it
right! Where has the money gone? It has gone to the elite 1% of our
population the super rich. I doubt very seriously whether anyone on Kitco
has ever met one of the super rich, yet many on this site defend them,
why? This one percent holds 90% of the wealth. Please let me repeat
that, one percent owns 90% of the wealth. And if you believe they got
their money by just hard work, or by way of the fair capitalistic
system, I have a bridge to sell you. Ninety percent of this one percent
inherited money and cheated to create and increase their holdings. As far as I am concerned if you want to find money for future entitlements, tax this one percent until they are part of the next nine percent. What does one man do with more than 1 billion dollars anyway? After the first
billion it is all about power and ego.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Steve Puetz -- I'll be reading RJs rational next week for his reasons why the western financial system ( If I read that correctly ) will not collapse, with a very keen eye! I know of a lot of reasons why THEY don't want it to collapse, as well as any sane person wouldn't want it to. I'm really curious as to how they might, even remotely, pull it off! Comment ( s ) ?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:45 WW @New England>(@New England):

EWP: I AM AGAINST EVER!! RAISING TAX RATES ON ANYONE TO MAKE UP THE SS AND MEDI DEFICITS!!!! I am for stopping the raids and privatizing the system so people control their own money/ Granted this could cause some short term financing problems for the Feds. Absent that I propose a broad based tax which will be so small in effect on the ITEMS taxed that it will have almost no econmomic effect on demand for the items taxed. Not supplying SS and Medi will cause an Econ depression from its effect on reducing final demand. Further SS and Medi fraud should be punished by mandatory jail sentences. The price insensitivity caused by these govt programs is what is making Health care unaffordable. Addressing this issue should be NUMERO UNO!
I am for a small tax on things to fund the program and not a rate increase. This will only be necessary if the kitty continues under IOU attack.
Why use IOUs why not just mandate the buying of marketable Treasuries and let the retirees proportionately cash them in when they reach retirement? Hmmm...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:42
Steve Puetz @>(@):

Good night all!! It's been fun, and interesting.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:41 QT @>(@):

Puetz,,, I am sorry. I must admit I was a bit harsh there. I mean we all know that strength, financial or otherwise, naturally implies a native intelligenge the lessor born simply must feel thankfull to be near. I suppose they feel safer, more secure. It harkens them back to some genetic memory of the tribe near the fire in the cave. They watched the alpha-male drag the apendage of some corpse in to warm it by the flame. Watched and waited until his/her time to have at it. And all the time they waited they probably thought about how much they were going to benefit by being a member of this tribe with the great hunter.
I have posed this in such a way that those Ayn Rand fans out there can run one way with it, the way of all great Leviathan's, and I have used the phrase tribe so the Marxian socialists, or the democratic federaliists, can see it as a parallel to the fiscal dilemas which haunt us to this day.

In all good fun, of course. However I digress. ( Isn't it really scarey sometimes when you notice how of the character of a site's dialogue can be defined by the degree of intellectual narcissism the inmates of the site allow? ) What I was really going to say was congrad's my boy. I read a great review of your TC in the Soldier of Fortune zine. The editor, has some Prussian sounding name as I recall, likened you to the Tom Paine of the mercenary cum militia back to the cavers set. Bit of an acolade that. I do think he went a bit overboard though. I mean your page position, opposite the cover story essay about the Waco/ McVeigh connections, was a bit declasse' if I may say so myself. But who cares really, at least the people who will survive the great collapse will have somethig to barter with over the corpse of this civilization you are so willing to toss aside out of hand.
Etcerata,,,
This really has nothing whatsoever to do with the metals which drew me here, but then on every picnic a little honey must be spread. Cheers.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:40
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Steve Puetz -- Re: your 22:26; Yes I do, at some point in time. Probably 'more' sooner than later. I would really like to know how it can be any other way! Anybody?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:39
Dennis 50Klight>(50Klight):

Steve; You said it: $20,000 gold. Squeeze you bet it is. Get off the bike what you say here goes into the archieves.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:39
Steve Puetz @ Eldorado>(@ Eldorado):

Yeah, but that gold-jet is getting closer to the take-off point every day.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:36
Steve Puetz @ Simple Simon>(@ Simple Simon):

Your idea is too simple and down-to-earth for the government to consider it.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:33
Steve Puetz @ Panda>(@ Panda):

Panda: The fact that retail sales have declined for 3 months in a row indicates that recession may have already started. Hence, the coming stock market crash is probably close-at-hand. The major part of all-but-one stock bears has been contained in the July-October period. A lot of people are looking for an October crash. However, July is just as likely.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:31
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Crystal Ball -- Gold may look like lead at this point, but like a Gooney Bird, it will eventually get its ass off the ground! and he'll be heading straight up to blue skys! Count on it. Just don't ask me how long of a run-way it'll need!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:28
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz):

Steve Puetz -- It seems I can't even spell correctly now! their = they're. With that said, and rhetoric flying, it's time to give the eyes some rest. Good night all and remember, Dow 4,893,485,645,436,345 is only a few days away! Buy now! Tomorrow is FRIDAY the 13th. :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:26
Steve Puetz @ Eldorado>(@ Eldorado):

Eldorado: In my community, my ideas are scorned and laughed at. Sometimes I feel the same way on this Web-site. But, it's nice to know that there are a few people out there that do think the same way I do. By your comments, I assume that you believe, as I do, that we are headed for an extreme deflation -- more severe than the 1930s.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:23
JohnC Brisbane>(Brisbane):

D.A.
Thanks for your reply yesterday on Forward buybacks.
I echo your comments that it does seem to be getting more bearish around here ( amazing at Kitco ) .
Also your SI Calls would have a nice low delta ready to go to work for you on any rally, good luck with the position.
Happy Trading All

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:22
Simple Simon Social Security>(Social Security):

Why doesn't the government buy half of the US gold
production with incoming Social Security Funds, that is;
before they give the rest away? It will help the real
value of the US gold stash rise and solve a part of the
problem.
Now rather than give the rest of those funds away, let
the indivigual invest the rest in Swiss Annuities, the
PM's, but under the same restrictions as IRA's and
401-K's. Swiss insurance companies are wise, our
government can demand, that they do not invest where it
will hurt.
Next, limit fractional reserve banking and pay off the US
Treasuries ( in increments ) with government issued money.
Then slowly return to a gold backed currency, or real
money.
Can't see $20,000 gold, because who would be able to buy
it, or we may be buying groceries using trucks formerly
used to haul ore from open pit mines.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:20
panda @>(@):

Steve Puetz -- I keep on wondering how much longer can this credit bubble be pumped up? The Dow, S&P500 and 100, continue to rise. The Amex oil index continues to rise even with crude falling. If you bought one XOI contract yesterday, ten minutes before the close ( June 420 Call ) and sold it today ten minutes before the close, you would have made $575 less commisions. Why work? Where did the 'value' come from? What's wrong with this picture? I know of one person who has about a thirty percent return so far, in an S&P 500 index fund, held less than a year. This is considered a 'good' return. Not, 'abnormal' return, just good. Interesting times are coming... Then again, maybe their already here.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:19
Steve Puetz @ Dennis>(@ Dennis):

Dennis: That fact that gold may rise to $20,000 may be somewhat misleading. It's not so much that gold will rise, but that the value of financial assets will collapse. Fear of default on credit-market instruments wiil be intense. Stock market losses will be unbelievable for most. The scramble to get into gold will be extreme. But with physical supplies so limited, gold will skyrocket. It will be a lot like the platinum squeeze of the past weeks -- only the squeeze will last for over a year.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:18
EWP EWP>(EWP):

WW: When does your raise tax rates theory approach a person paying most of their wages to support the govt? Is that good for economic growth and competitiveness in a global economy? Do you advocate cutting spending to make up for the use of surplus trust funds? About 143 billion in different trust funds were used last year mask the deficit size. Where would that be made up? Would you just have it as deficit spending?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:15
Novice @Port Credit>(@Port Credit):

Ted: Kristine's out tonight, eh? Thought you were unusually active on this site tonite! Hope she's not bein indoctrinated by Breton pinkos... BTW, a positive writeup on yer ABX in latest Incvestors Digest ( 6 June issue ) . Says Barrick cheaper than its peers, and performance should improve during second half of this year.

Overheard you and EWP discussing Bema and Arizona Star a bit here this evening, and who may be in line to acquire Star and the Cerro Casale property. Holding both BGO and AZS, I follow the SI Bema thread pretty carefully. While the betting there seems to be on PDG, a few have noted that Bema's Clive Johnson is in Europe right now at the same time Homestake's Jack Thompson is there too. The latter saying he's looking at acquisitions ( as well as further exploration and improved performance at existing operations ) . Will know sooner or later the outcome...and it better be sooner the way Star is sagging right now.

Oh, one final thing...we're of to the Bruce Peninsula tomorrow a.m. for weekend of shoppin'. I can hear the criticisms of me work ethic now...:- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:13
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Steve Puetz -- I thankyou for the fine regard you give to my understanding of of this dismal debt based, slaveryment, monetary system we currently live under. I too admire your postings! To a great degree! I would most certainly enjoy believing that 'there is no problem', as I'm sure most goldbugs would. I would also, and most certainly, enjoy a good discussion from one of those mentalities as to why there is no problem! If that person were REEEEEEALLLLLL good at the explanation, I might even be tempted to fall for it, except for the knowledge that ALL debt based systems already have their end written with their beginning! No ifs, ands or buts about it! So, maybe, one smart individual out there can set me straight, including my previous sentence. I would most assuredly welcome it! As always, lurkin' and ready! Steve, as why I do not post more, perhaps when Bart gets his 'search' up and going, you'll go back and peruse. I've got 'a few' back there! But, at times, one gets tired of so much duplication, as I said to Earl a few nights ago. Perhaps I'll again 'get with it'. Again, thanks!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:13
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Zeeb: come on ... it is a lot more than a little debt. I guess you feel it can just be inflated away?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:12
Steve Puetz @ QTb>(@ QTb):

QT: The function of government is to protect individual liberties. It has been proven time-and-again, that the more individual freedom people have in a nation, the more prosperous a nation becomes. Not only do the strong and intelligent, benefit -- but so do less talented people.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:11
EWP EWP>(EWP):

I apologize if people don't think the entitlement quagmire is not important to this discussion group. I think it is very relevant. Govt. will either choose a delationary or inflationary tactic to deal with it, IMHO rather than dealing with serious CPI adjustments and age requirements ( which would probably be somewhat deflationary itself ) . The deflationary approach to promote slow growth to keep interest rates and inflation down won't grow the economy and revenues fast enough to keep up with the spending train. The inflationary approach would pretty much level the middle class and poor.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:07
Zeeb Ackron>(Ackron):

EWP: I have no need to read any marginal publications. We are riding the crest of the post WW2 prosperity and leaving the under 20s with some debt. What is wrong with that?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:07
Steve Puetz @ Panda>(@ Panda):

Panda: I'm with you. Gold has had good support in the $335-340 area. The positive sign is than gold hasn't broken below this support -- even though the DJIA keeps soaring. Once the DJIA starts its crash, $340 should be a good springboard for gold to launch it's next buul move.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:05 WW @New England>(@New England):

EWP: the longevity argument does not hold water as that is why they increased the tax many times over the years in recognition of this obvious fact. SS has to be paid and instead of the IOUss why not mandate that the money not being replaced by IOUs in the new system go into buying marketable Treasury's so there would not be a sudden increase in borrowing. Of course each participant would have the power to sell the Treasury into the mkt upon retirement and collect the proceeds. Or EWP are you for the Federal Govt controlling everyone's property when it helps you.

SS and Medi are Property and that is why they are called Entitlements anyone who meets the criteria can sue in Federal ct for benefits. Just as you could sue the govt if they took your house. Thank God for the judiciary.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:03
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Zeeb: I would suggest reading some Richard Lamm, Pete Peterson, Warren Rudman, CATO Institute, etc. if you think things will be so economically sound for the younger generations ( and provide as much opportunity that you and I have probably enjoyed ) .

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:02
Steve Puetz @ More Gold>(@ More Gold):

More Gold: Thanks.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 22:01
Dennis Salt lake>(Salt lake):

Steve: Say something we haven't already heard. Like support for your for your $20,0000 gold prediction--your Hallmark prediction.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:59
D.A. gold.anyone?>(gold.anyone?):

All:

Now that I have learned why gold is such a lousy investment, I think I'm going to buy some. Maybe even a lot. It used to be that at Kitco when an anti-goldbug showed up he got squashed. Now they are revered for their balanced opinions. It used to be at Kitco that when the XAU outperformed gold that this was predictive of a rise in gold. Now its because the stock market it going up and this is just another shorting opportunity, because the volume is weak and some gold fund has not performed up to par. I won't go out on that limb that says gold is going up from here, but I'll wager its not going down. If the boys and girls at Kitco can no longer hoist the flag, there can't be much risk anymore.

P.S. We bought a load of May 625 calls in Silver. Hope they work as well as Palladium.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:59 QT @>(@):

EWP,,,
society should try... what is this thinking?
Puetz,,, Government's sole purpose is to protect the strong from the weak. Without it the bent twig of humanity always turns to tear those foundations of burdensome tyrany into the mulch of a new order. The United States is an example of this, is it not?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:58
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

WW: It's too late to save our financial system. Any attempt, now, to pay off government debt would be deflationary -- and start a depression. On the other hand, any further increase in debts will bankrupt the country beyond repair. It's a catch-22. The system is doomed no matter which direction we go. Escape the system, and get into gold and silver coins.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:58
panda @>(@):

For the brave only! This graphic is rated 'H' for hazardous to your finances. :- ) ) Now that we have a well defined triangle, which is supposed to break lower... Anyone have comments? Is gold forecasting a 'problem'? Could this be leading to the break out ( up ) ? Technically, we should break lower, but gold seems to be finding good support at $340. What to do, oh what to do?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:58
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Steve P.: yep.

Reb: Age needs to be raised aggressively and serious CPI adjustment. Will it happen. Doubt it. Republicans have some plan to raise it to 67 by 2028 or something. That is a joke. Democrats probably have no plan because it flys against their campaign rhetoric.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:55
MoreGold @Steve Puetz>(@Steve Puetz):

Steve, im with you on the outlook for Gold. This is one hell of a tough time to be a Goldbug, but I am convinced, like you, that it will pay off.
The only question to be answered is when.
Meanwhile the masses continue to pump their savings into overpriced equities, and the deception goes on. Maybee 7900 Dow tomorrow,
8500 next week. At these levels the risk reward ratio has to be deadlier than a minefield. Irrational exuberence, naw that went out at the 5500 level ( What happened to Greenspan and his warnings anyway? ) .
Steve, keep on informing those very few who still listen.........

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:55
Zweeb Ackron>(Ackron):

My standard of living is infinity better today than it was when I was an under 20. I'm living better than the last King of England. So is every one who is connected to this site. The gloom and doom and ain't it awful and the world as we know it is going to get worse is really a rite of passage here. Until it gets worse things have never been better.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:53
vronsky EWP & TED>(EWP & TED):

CRYSTALLEX INTERNATIONAL - Many have been watching the stellar price rise in KRY. Here�s WHY:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/grandich_512.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/grandich_jan.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/goldbug418.html

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:52
EWP EWP>(EWP):

WW: If you raise taxes or create new revenue grabs, you just are continuing the ponzi scheme. SS is not a pension. It is old age insurance. Medicare is subsidized health care with people living much longer than when the system was implemented. In the 30s - SS will never cost that much, In the 60s - Medicare will never cost that much. SS and Medi are 1 and 3 in govt. spending. Medi will pass defense spending soon.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:51
Steve Puetz @ EWP>(@ EWP):

EWP: Ponzi must be smiling now. He probably never imagined what it was that he started. The gov't outlaws Ponzi Schemes, the Gov't creates the grandest Ponzi Scheme ever imagined. More of the gov't attitude of Do as I say, not as I do.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:48
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Zeeb: I guess nothing if you feel it is okay to pass on a declining standard of living. I personally feel that society should try to pass on an equal or better life for their children. That won't be happening with the current trend of the old third rail. These programs were designed when people weren't supposed to live much past 65.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:48 QT @>(@):

Steve P. ,,,
Great idea, just let the poor fight your wars for you. After they've trimmed the hedge and hauled the trash, of course.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:47
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):

WW: I sympathize with your idea that a broad based tax should be implemented to pay for Soc. Sec.

In my view, Soc. Sec. IS a broad based tax. The idea that there is a trust fund is a joke. The system is a means of inter-generational transfer payments and I doubt it will ever be anything else. To fix it would require some one to come up with the 17 trillion and I doubt that is going to happen. When the baby boom bubble starts to become eligible for benefits, I look for a muddle through solution that will be a combination of means based benefits ( which has already occured through the tax code ) , older retirement age, higher current taxes, less favorable benefit adustments for inflation, etc.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:47 WW @New England>(@New England):

EWP: 1 ) Stop the borrowing now and use the next 13 years of surpluses to invest in real investments or privatize the system and let the individuals choose where to put the money/In sum, end the IOU scam. The govt, of course, would have to borrow more in the mkt or raise taxes to cover the increased deficit of not raiding the Trust fund. I dont think those Free Mkt Capitalists on Wall St. would like such a policy. EWP Ques. are you for continuing to raid the trust fund and rob current workers of benefits they are paying for/
OR should we stop the raids and be honest and make up the difference by increased borrowing or taxes today and allow the NEXT 13 YEARS of surpluses to accumulate for those who made payment so the system will reliquify and not burden our grand children.

I think a broad based tax which is economically broad enough to not effect final demand will be necessary if they do not stop the fake IOU game. The crisis is really that the GOVT DOES NOT WANT TO PAY THE IOUs. Stop now or a broad based tax later is the only fair solution. Given the Demographics tomorrows politicians will have to figure out a way to pay the workers back for what they have paid in. I would really like to see an end to the IOUs and the Govt go out in the mkts and borrow the extra 200-300 million on 1998/99 and forward it would need without the use of the IOUs. WOULD YOU AGREE TO THIS AND CALL YOUR CONGRESSMAN DEMANDING SUCH ACTION. Do you think Wall St would like this or do you think they would want to continue the IOU scheme and fatten their bottom lines at the expense of the taxpayers.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:46
Steve Puetz @ TED>(@ TED):

TED: You do have a good sense of humor!! You need to take the prospect of a depression more severe than the 1930 seriously, though.
Maybe you're too laid-back.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:46
Bob Knight Bloomington>(Bloomington):

Steve Puetz: Had to. Woulda broken a chair over
some reporter's head otherwise. I've gotta be
careful. I'm already wanted in Puerto Rico!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:43
Steve Puetz @ WW>(@ WW):

WW: I agree with most of what you say, except: Why have any tax at all?
Whoever renders a service from any person or organization should be the person to pay. Get rid of government, except for defense. Pay for defense with either voluntary service or taxes for those who don't serve.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:42
Zeeb Ackron>(Ackron):

Whats wrong with the under '20s paying for our entitlements? We have paid for everything they have worn, eaten, driven, lived in or worked in or been educated in or with.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:42
TED @DA>(@DA):

D.A ( 21:34 ) Pathetic....ain't it!...I'm outta here....for a while! BYE..
So you left NYC too...eh..

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:38
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE):

NOVICE and Liz: If you think I am ignoring Kristine....you are wrong as she is out for the evening with friends.....and look at me blaberin away!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:37
Steve Puetz @ Bob Knight>(@ Bob Knight):

Hey, Bob!! What's the story about you walking down the middle of the highway, in the rain, at mid-night, in the shady part of town, after your NCAA loss

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:34
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: KRY is one Peter Grandich is betting his lungs on ( I get mailings from him ) . I guess we'll see. My homerun hitter is Bema ( I hope ) . They are supposed to release updates to their Cerro Casale deposit soon ( 27+ million oz. in gold and a bunch of copper ) that they partner with Arizona Star ( which Bema owns a percentage of ) . IMHO, anyone would have to be nuts to short BGO or AZS.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:34
D.A. the.system.works.for.those.in.the.system>(the.system.works.for.those.in.the.system):

WW:

Let me get this straight. Some guy borrows a bunch of money, finds out that he can't pay it back, and you blame this on the people who lent him the money. Sue their butts off huh? On the other hand, if the financial institution did not lend them the money, why then they would probably be guilty of discrimination. Sue 'em all big and small. Ever wonder why lawyers have a bad rep?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:33
TED esargent@auracom.com>(esargent@auracom.com):

EWP: Enjoyed talkin to ya and if ya feel like it e-mail me some time..I just noticed this gets a little ADDICTIVE and I gotta get off for a while and go down and listen to the ocean or somethin....WW: YOU still didn't tell me where you live.....is it that bad?...another evasive lawyer!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:28
EWP EWP>(EWP):

WW: Where is the money you and I paid in FICA? I'll answer that. Govt. IOUs. Who will pay for that. You and I ... and especially those much younger. The financial structure is a ponzi scheme. Don't you agree?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:27
TED @EWP>(@EWP):

EWP: KRY....Bema...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:26
EWP EWP>(EWP):

WW: Has the current retiree collected more than they contribute for programs like Medi and SS?

Do you want somebody in their 20s or younger to pay for our entitlements?

That is what the 17 trillion in unfunded liabilities are all about.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:24
TED @WW>(@WW):

WW: My brother is also a lawyer...he is currently in hiding in Bangkok Thailand...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:21
TED @Stevepuetz>(@Stevepuetz):

Steve Puetz: I don't think a full-blown depression is in the cards..I've heard that rap for the past 13 years while the market has gone up...and up...Like I said I practice a life-style of SELF-SUFFICENTCY and I'm ready .......

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:20
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: ABX is probably, IMHO, one of the better seniors. HM and PDG are probably looking for acquisitions ( along with some others like CCH, etc. ) . Who? Good question.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:19 WW @New England>(@New England):

EWP: I have expressed in previous posts ad nauseam the error in your perception. I just want people to get what they have/are paying for. They should stop borrowing from trust funds now and sock the money away. The 30 year olds are paying in big tine and should expect their money back at least. You and Ted have apparently benefited tremendously from the bull market in stocks which was and is assisted by raiding the SS and Medi Trust Funds thus keeping interest rates artificially low thereby contributing to the increase of your wealth through Govt Largesse at the expense of the SS and Medi paying young people of today. A broad based tax is the least you can do to give back some of the benefit you have derived by the Govt robbing money from todays young. Get off your love of govt benefits and for once take personal responsibility. The hypocrisy is as obvious as it is sickening. This is why the right wing is always doomed to ultimate failure.

I dont think tomorrow's youth should pay I think the beneficiaries of the robbery should pay and the robbery should stop now. A broad based tax is the ans. but really we should have a more direct tax on those who benefit from the theft like the securities industry and their fat cat clients.

I am 30 years from retirement to the Carribbean. Further, I might never retire as seeing financial institutions eat bad loans and use of the Fair Credit Act to sue them when they try to collect is just too much fun. I love counter suing the SOBs when they make even one error with one of my debtor clients. Because of this leverage, I am proud to say some of my clients have staved off Bankruptcy and actually ended up collecting from the creditors. The system works!!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:18
Bob Knight Bloomington>(Bloomington):

Steve Puetz: A Boilermaker, eh? Heh heh.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:15
TED @EWP>(@EWP):

EWP: Yeah, 9.05% ain't bad fer these days...What I like about D.R.I.P.'S is that they are the ultimate timming device....cheaper they are the more ya buy..ect. ect...takes the emotions out of play!...XON does something lile 75-80% of their business out of country so it's a foreign play to a degree...Have always wanted to own RD and will if the market crashes...great company!...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:13
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

Ted: The coming problem for utility-type companies in an economic depression is that they must collect bills from customers who are broke. What seem like solid and sound companies now, won't look the same in an economic depression.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:10
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

WW: Good comments. The problem now is: Lend to whom?
Solvent creditors are hard to find these days.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:09
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

WDL: Great story!! Neil Armstrong is a graduate of my alma mater --
Purdue!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:08
TED @WW>(@WW):

WW: My God...you are back fer more!...No,I don't partake of the Canadian health care system and am at the mercy of the private U.S. system...I can't believe we have somethin in common....even YOU do not like Billy-Bob....Bravo!...BC is Tony Blair's idol...what does that say about GB?...Now I will ask YOU AGAIN WW....Where do you live in New England

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:03
Arms Dealer Now/now>(Now/now):

Ted and WW: Now, now, lets be level headed.
Gun-Runner: Have I got a deal for you!!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:03
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: 9.05% ... can't beat that. Gold is a good contrarian play now ( or so say a lot of experts ) . Longer term ... energy ( oil and natural gas exploration, etc. ) is wiser ( if you looking 15-20 years ) ... and the DP and DRIPs are a great way to dollar cost average a bunch of companies.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 21:01
TED @EWP>(@EWP):

EWP: yeah, some out there are gettin a little CRANKY...ain't they!..I bought CDE last September and held for a few months and made a few bucks.
Bought HM at X-mas time and held that for about a month or so and made a few bucks there too...Bought ABX several months ago @ 25.5 and ain't sellin until it's at least over 30....and maybe not even then!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:57 WW @New england>(@New england):

TED: I said to each his own. What I would like to know as an American Conservative living in Canada are you partaking of their National Health Service, which all conservative Canadians I speak with seem to prefer or have you stuck with the US Private Insurance program.
I know nothing of Chretian but I assume he is good and even as a left wing Liberal I do not like Clinton so you will insight no argument there.
BC is the ultimate in political expediency. If the stk mkt ever goes down significantly his troubles will multiply.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:56
TED @EWP>(@EWP):

EWP: Sounds like we have similar investment styles...I'm approx.10% of stock portfolio in ABX...I've studied UTES fer years and like their correlation to interest rates and thus to GOLD!...AM also in long Bond @ 9.05% ( bought about five years ago ) ...No state taxes on that baby...but next time it hits 6% I'm gettin out...10+ years ago day-traded gold shares and have also used UTES as a trading vehicle...But only trade with that I can afford to lose!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:52
EWP EWP>(EWP):

WW: Where will you be retiring? FL. Let me know so I can move down there ... and hassle you to get out and get a job ... and quit expecting some younger kids to subsidized your golf, shuffleboard, and bochy ball habits.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:48
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: and I'm not as cranky as some of the goldbugs because I've actually made money in mining shares this year. Made some small gains in CCH. I don't own now ... but may again. Quality company, IMHO. They are interested in doing acquisitions. I want to wait until after they pull the trigger before I'd would consider them again.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:47
TED @WW>(@WW):

WW: Well..well..well! So you decided to deal with me..eh...Not a DIME of inheritance...buddy....Why am I wasting away in Canada? I'm now wasting my retirement in Cape Breton...That's your judgement! Not mine....I love nature-oceans-seakayaking and you can't find a better place to do that than her in good old Cape Breton!...I like COLD weather or I would be in a southern clime....Re-the people here....yes, most of them are pathetic but no worse than what I experienced in Putney Vermont after all the flatlanders moved in...and finally I much prefer living in CANADA where the leader is NOT a slime-ball...Again, it's YOUR judgement I'm wasting my retirement as I LIVE life to the max!...and I ain't no LEEMING!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:46
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

I guess that was less than a resounding success. I had to convert the file from *.PCX to *.GIF. Something was lost in translation. Evidently.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:46
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: yep .. I'm only about a 5-7% goldie. I have the DP and DRIPs for a couple of energy and utility companies ( coal and hydro sources ) for my spouse and children. Basically, the companies that I feel are good 15 year investments. My mining plays are have fun with the house money. My plays are high risk ( half in Bema and half in another company ) . I like a few others but I'm disciplined on the percentage that I will invest in this sector. Heh ... it's fun and risky.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:43
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Here is a chart of the XAU with patented lines and such. Not very exciting. It is reaaly a first attempt at getting charts out of some outdated DOS based real time software. I want to see how it turns out before doing some overlays and other things.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:42
MoreGold @Important warning to NETSCAPE users>(@Important warning to NETSCAPE users):

Netscape bug uncovered

Danish software firm finds flaw that
could let sites see data stored on PCs

From Correspondent Steve Young
June 12, 1997: 6:58 p.m. ET

NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) - A serious new flaw that affects all versions of Netscape Communications Corp.'s popular Navigator Internet browser software -- including the final test version of its Communicator Suite released Wednesday -- has been uncovered by a Danish software firm, CNNfn has learned.

The bug was reported by Cabocomm, a software company located about 100 miles west of Copenhagen, Denmark. The bug makes it possible for Web-site operators to read anything stored on the hard drive of a PC logged on to the Web site.

After the firm reported the bug to CNN Financial News, CNNfn and PC Magazine tested the bug by creating and storing a document on a PC's hard drive in New York. Seconds later, the Danish company read it.

As further proof, CNNfn and PC Magazine created another document which the Danish company was also able to read.

Larry Seltzer, technical director of PC Labs, was among those who helped verify the bug report. He said it would take a somewhat savvy computer user to exploit the bug.

They have to be seeking information from your system and they also have to know the file name. It's not that hard for somebody who's looking to make trouble, but they do have to be looking for it, Seltzer said.

It's serious in that it's in the [actual] browser ...whereas previous bugs generally required the user to have downloaded an additional product, Jim Wise, UNIX administrator for CNNfn, said.

CNNfn's test showed that Internet security firewalls offer no protection from the bug.

Mike Homer, vice president of marketing for Netscape, said the company takes this and all bug reports seriously. ( 83K WAV ) or ( 83K AIFF )

The Danish company says the reward of $1,000 and a T-shirt is insultingly low considering the extent to which the bug report is likely to worry Netscape users.

Cabocomm said it would accept reasonable compensation for the technical information -- or they can send a Netscape representative to Cabocomm and get it for free.

CNNfn, PC Magazine and the Danish company will not release technical details on the bug until Netscape has prepared a bug fix.

The reason CNNfn is not reporting the specifics of the bug is to avoid anyone exploiting it.

Until the bug is fixed, confidential letters, business spreadsheets -- everything on your PC -- can potentially be pilfered.

The Danish company says it won't exploit the bug, but has no idea if someone else has found the same bug and is compromising a system's integrity.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:41
Crystal Ball StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse>(StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse):

Gaze upon this monthly Dow chart in awe. Makes palladium and coffee look like pikers. Meanwhile, gold sits like a lump of lead.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:41
Crystal Ball StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse>(StockMarket Bear@Poorhouse):

Gaze upon this monthly Dow chart in awe. Makes palladium and coffee look like pikers. Meanwhile, gold sits like a lump of lead.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:30 WW @New england>(@New england):

TED: I hope you earned every penny of your inheritance/just kidding since I dont know I cant say. However, you are to be commended on your stick tooitiveness with stks, this sounds like you are not an emotional investor which I think is key and which I can point to in my investment miscues.

My Ques. is why is a smart guy like you living in freezing NE Canada where from your posts you have disdain and even repugnance for your more progressive bretheren in the area. Ever heard of Antigua/Anguilla/Barbados or Trinidad. What a waste of early retirement, but I guess to each his own.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:28
Big Bird Little Chicken eh.>(Little Chicken eh.):

Chicken Little: Have no fear, we have the best and the
brightest to keep the sky from falling.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:27
panda @explorer?>(@explorer?):

Front -- I tried, but had no success! Now I know why I use Netscape instead of Explorer! I even checked out MSFTs website to no avail!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:26
TED @EWP>(@EWP):

EWP: I'm in SHOCK!...someone here owns a non-gold stock...Ain't PNY a great little company and I love those yearly dividend raises...TRP is another good one fer dividend increases...Vis-a-vis U.S.Dollar ..the Canadian Dollar is a screamin buy!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:21
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

EBN Gold down .40....and Tiger Woods is NINE strokes behind the leader...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:20
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: Cash will be king. Buying opportunities. Energy related sector may be of good value. I own PNY also and some others through DRIP and Direct Purchase plans! Only 5-7% in mining shares. Shifting to money market and conservative funds for buying opportunities.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:16
TED @ewp>(@ewp):

EWP: Re-suckers rally and Dow 8,000....With all due respect, what is going to happen at the end of the suckers rally...another repeat of 1987?...Didn't sell a share then and am now in early retirement...Most of my portfolio is in D.R.I.P. and I only ended up buying more shares when the market plunged...Shares in the BASICS of life such as international oil ( XON ) electric+ gas utilities ( WEC,SIG,BGC,PNY, ECT ) and telephone companies ( SBC,FRO ) ...are they all goin out of business? Don't hold yer breath!...I got plenty of ABX TOO so I ain't no anti-goldbug...and plenty of tangible stuff...ie. real eatate...is that goin to vaporize too...I am also very SELF-SUFFICENT ( probably unlike most on this site ) so bring it on! I'm READY!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:15
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Jack: and the U.S. has the addl. problem of depending on countries like Japan and China to buy its debt. Japan is a problem now because of the stability of their economy and banking system ... and China and the MNF thing is about getting China to buy our paper ... and China may be more of a long term problem that Uncle Sam's appetite for debt will just have to deal with ( unfortunately ) .

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:09
Jack Who Pays For It?>(Who Pays For It?):

EWP ( 19:54 ) Right on; and practically every government
has large debt. It's supposed to be payed; so we are
told.
Who pays? The taxpayer pays.
Who do the governments pay? The Credit Czars.
Who controls the governments?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:05 WW @New England>(@New England):

Mr. Peutz's observations are correct/the threat is depression. In McAlvaney's Letter ( which all should read lest they be uninformed ) the author unmasks the fraudulent presentation of Econ strength by or leaders ( Political/Media and Wall St ) . Credit card debt went fron 20 billion in 1990 to 400 billion in 1995 its probably near 500 billion area now. Bankruptcies, with which I am well acquainted in my profession, are going through the roof and unfortunately I can report that MY business is really booming/unlike retail sales.I can tell you from experience that the debt game played by the banks is really hurting families. As Mcalvaney aptly points out Depressions are always caused by excessive credit expansion as in the 20s. The difference this time is that we have very smart people ie mkt saavy, like Rubin who see this coming and have been hired by the politicians to try and head it off.

COORDINATION: US releases weak econ numbers today. Now if you were one of the guys hired to maintain stability what message would you want from the weakness. Ans: Strong dollar ( Japanese miraculously buy dollars just before this announcement ) strong stks ( basically a life of its own ) weak gold ( no panic over weakness ) . The nightmare scenario is weakening US economy therefore bigger deficits and higher rates and crashing stks thus when weak numbers are released you must have a strong dollar. The nightmare scenario is what they are trying to delay and thus will be aggressive in countering the development of any adverse market psychology when the numbers present a risk ( ie weak ) of their development. They are well awarse that the credit based expansion requires intense mgmt since it is based on the need for continual borrowing for earnings growth and therefore even US tax revenues. When the borrowing crashes so will earnings begin to erode.

EVIDENCE: I have noticed many companies attempting to get business by discounting the cost of services deeply. However, the catch is that you pay money upfront. Given, the prevalence of pressure for short term earnings performance ( stk option oriented managers ) one would get the impression that they will do anything to get that earnings bounce at the expenses of future performance. This policy may indicate that things are getting tight and they have basically played out the downsize card.

Re: Stockbrokers: I have a full service broker who has assisted me with financial plans and who is honest but has had some bad years as well as good. In the bad years I always insist that he does not reduce the commission because I know it is then that he really needs the money. When he is riding high and making me money I demand a 25% discount.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 20:02
EWP EWP>(EWP):

If anyone is now joining the sucker rally ( IMHO ) to go over 8000, I hope you know when to exit.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:59
vronsky INGER LETTER FORECAST - JUNE 11, 1997>(INGER LETTER FORECAST - JUNE 11, 1997):

Dashing & Flamboyant CNBC Financial Celebrity shares an encyclopedia of market insights on stocks, oil and T-bonds in Inger Letter Forecast - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:57
Chicken Little @reality>(@reality):

THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:55
TED @stevepuetz>(@stevepuetz):

Steve Puetz: Read who's work?...Think I'll stick with Warren Buffett...
snicker...snicker....Where the hell did you come from...I've been fully invested for the ENTIRE BULL-MARKET and have also made a few bucks on Platinum and gold shares...on the side...Sometimes the bias of this site is actually humorous!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:54
EWP EWP>(EWP):

U.S. House of Cards: 5+ trillion debt; 17+ trillion unfunded liabilities;
new accouting gimmicks to hide the true size of the federal deficit ( last year deficit was about 250 billion not 107 billion ) . High levels of corporate and personal debt. Medicare Trust fund on life support ( and eventually Uncle Sam will raise taxes ) . Soc. Sec ... and so on and so on.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:54
WDL @ a little more levity>(@ a little more levity):

When will this lunacy end?..I thought the final figures I heard were from Hong Kong or Tokyo. Tomorrow, they'll probably announce that there were ten less bankruptcies and the market will go up another 100 points. To add a little further levity ( I enjoyed tortfeasor's humor ) , I'll add my own story:

Many of us remember back in July, 1969 when Neil Armstrong landed on the moon....those memorable words: That's one small step for man and... well you know the rest. What you don't know is that many of us misheard those history-making remarks Armstrong uttered as he descended from the lunar module onto the moon's surface. It seems that
Armstrong, as a young boy, lived in an apartment complex in Ohio. Practically every night as he was getting ready to go to bed he could hear in the next apartment his neighbor, Emanuel Kind pleading with his wife for sex. Manny's wife's constant refrain was:
Manny, when somebody lands on the moon....that when we'll have sex!
Well, as Armstrong prepared for his historic making descent onto the
moon's surface, he kept thinking of his old neighbor, Emanuel Kind...
so when he set foot on the moon, he said: That one small step for man...
one giant leap for Manny Kind.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:52
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):

Crystal Ball:

Thanks! Now I am charted up. : )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:44
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

TED: Refering to the 1987 crash, and the expectation of another crash, you asked: Is the world coming to an end this time?
In a word -- YES. That is, the financial world as we know it. Read Eldorado's work. Credit-based money is history -- probably for centuries to come.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:41
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

GUN-RUNNER: Buy gold and silver coins.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:40
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

General & Student: A big portion of the mania is social pressure. With so many people making money in stocks and losing in precious metals, those who like gold and avoid stocks are scorned. I must admit, my wife isn't too fond of my investment strategy either. Nonetheless, we must rely on logic, not emotion. We must buy value, and avoid over-value. Logic dictates that gold be purchased, and stocks and bonds be avoided.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:35
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

I haven't seen much discussion about the decline in retail sales. Retail sales have dropped for 3 months in a row. In the old days, that used to be a sign that the economy has slipped into recession. It looks like a replay of 1929, the economy peaks-out ahead of the stock market. If so, the coming stock market crash isn't too far away.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:35
Pepino di Cortino Dolly>(Dolly):

Crystal Ball: Owe Nice.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:32
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

George Cole: You are right. Stocks hold the key to the revival of gold and silver. With everyone rushing into blue-chips, nothing left for gold. It looks like the DJIA is in a blow-off. The big question is when will it terminate?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:31
Crystal Ball Free TA @ IQC>(Free TA @ IQC):

For technical analysis ( JAVA *and* non-JAVA ) on stocks, try
http://www.iqc.com Membership is free, and as far as I know, this is not for a limited time either.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:29
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

RJ: You need to read Eldorado's piece on 6-11-97 @ 23:02. Eldorado: You understand our monetary system and financial condition perfectly. You need to post more notes on these pages!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:26
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

RJ: I disagree with your 6-11-97 note @ 21:05. You said, the trick is to buy gold and sell it after a move up. This time around, buy and hold will work better. Our financial system is collapsing. Selling gold any time before the collapse becomes a total wash-out will mean a complete loss of your capital -- no matter how much you made on the way up.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:25
Chicken Little @goldbugs>(@goldbugs):

Tomorrow will be our day! The big rally is right around the corner! My charts show gold will turn around at 11:54 Friday morning! The Dow will be at 1,000 in 37 days!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:24
Crystal Ball Nuggets@Wisdom>(Nuggets@Wisdom):

If Dolly Parton had married and divorced Tommy Smothers, then went even further back in show business and married and divorced Mr. Lucky, then married and divorced Martin Short, then married football kicker Ray Guy, we could all nod understandingly when we heard, Dolly Parton Smothers Lucky Short Guy.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:21
Jack Battle Mountain>(Battle Mountain):

Tw: ( 18:34 ) What I'm thinking is pure speculation, but
when Battle Mountain aquired Hemlo Gold, they also
re-aquired their conservative image and probable support
from Noranda.
Down here the greenies have thrown; and are attempting to
throw more monkey wrenches in their plans.
My quess -and its only that- is that they will seek to
increase their interest in Lihir Gold, the biggest newby
on the block.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:20
TED @tort>(@tort):

Tort ( bonus joke ) HAHAHA...but who's lickin wounds? Dow up...ABX up.....
beautiful sunny day on the ocean....who can ask fer more...Tort:the Mailman was pathetic in the clutch last night and I am very disturbed by his performance in the biggest game of his life....fer shame Mailman..fer shame...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 19:04
Byron @ Update:>(@ Update:):

Re: last post. Just realized that the Technical Charting page can be accessed directly from the DBC Home Page.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:52
Byron @ Hear Ye, Hear Ye:>(@ Hear Ye, Hear Ye:):

Announcement: For a Limited Time Only!!

The DBC site will now allow you to put in technical indicators for your chart. They have a selection of various indicators to choose from. I.E.- stochastics, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.

You need to get to the Enhanced Charting Page and look for technical indicators The URL is http://www.dbc.com

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:47
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com):

A.P.H.

Al, when you e-mailed me a couple of weeks ago that the S & P would hit 880 I have to admit I didn't believe it. You called it right ! Too bad I had puts instead of calls.

Tell, me... when can we expect the Dow to crash ?

Paul

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:45
Paul hrhpmd@aol>(hrhpmd@aol):

Earl ( Duke of.. ) ....Thanks for info on Dec 98 400's. I am going to take some of those
puppies soon to hedge some property I am selling in late 98.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:44
Tortfeasor Bonus Joke>(Bonus Joke):

My feeling is that the XAU going up today proves that in a tornado even an ostrich will fly. I think if the DOW goes down XAU will go down too. Its weak positive showing does not appear to me to be particularly bullish today given the rise in the DOW. Now in an effort to make the wound licking more palatable the following.

A guy gets on an airplane and sits next to a very attractive young lady with NAN emblazoned on the front of her t-shirt.

The guy, with intent to become closer friends with the beauty, says, So Nan, how do you like flying?

The lady replies, My name isn't Nan, NAN stands for the National
Association of Nymphos.

The guy says, What does the NAN do?

She says, We have meetings to discuss the best lovers.

He asks her who the best lovers are and she replies, The best lovers are
Jews and Native-Americans.

He says, Let me introduce myself, I'm Tonto Goldstien.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:24 Tw @BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD/Takeover?>(@BATTLE MOUNTAIN GOLD/Takeover?):

Anyone notice BMG Battle Mountain Gold. Moving up on good volume in spite of terrible gold performance. Stk. up a qtr on 632 k. Co. has lots of cash and recd an upgrade to positive from S&P on Hemlo merger.
Could BMG be in play/all that cash/S&P upgrade/Peculiarly bullish stk action given the current gold market. Something is happening here. This is a Houston, Texas based company.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:23
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Kuston: yep ... most brokers are just pumping product ( sales = $$$ ) . Most do very little research of what they're peddling ... just passing something on that one of the bigwigs has passed on to them ... when it is okay to pass it to the general public. IMHO ... you are better off doing your own guesswork and due dili. ( or throwing darts ) than using a broker ( unless you're connected ) . Remember Dan D. on CNBC ... you were hearing it from him because somebody wanted you to hear those recommendations. You could lose a lot of money doing that. For example, I remember Citibank and Chemical slightly around 10 or so and Dan D. having people predicting they would go to about 2/share ( recommending short ) . Recommending shorting many bank stocks, etc. Anybody who went on that info. lost, not only, their shirt ...
but also a few arms and legs. : )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 18:09
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):

Strad Master: I don't know alot about how brokers work or run their
business. I try not to use them. Matter of fact - I don't use them.

But, I know this:
I have a close friend who is a broker for ML - she has the corner office
on the top floor of the ( big 5 city ) branch. In other words - she's important
in the ( big 5 city ) market and you have to be referred just to talk to her. She
has shown me internal memos and reports that the brokers never see or
hear about. Not all brokers or clients are equal or are treated equally.
Client books are closely guarded by each broker.

Personnally, if I had a 7 digit account I would have a professional like
D.A. manage 90% of it, and personnaly play with the rest. Their is nothing
like being in NY and being connected. IMHO

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:52
EWP EWP>(EWP):

LoserRUS: What is your major maladjustment?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:50
Losers R Us @PMmarket>(@PMmarket):

HAHAHAHAHA!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:47
Markus Chinese Connections>(Chinese Connections):

Did anyone hear the astounding CNN news this morning about Indonesian Mr. Chan who is reported to have been providing the Democratic party with reelection funds from Indonesia..apparently he was spying for the Chinese passing U.S. trade and commerce secrets to Chinese. The Indonesian company Mr. Chan represent were under Chinese ownership. Consider this possibility: Chinese orchestrated the Bre-X fiasco to secure them one of the richest gold reserves in the world, they pay off Freeport McMoran and others to remain silent, they own 95% of Indonesian commerce, they secure themselves a huge gold supply which the U.S. has been trying to prevent them from buying in the normal market ( Greenspan's trip to China to pursuade Chinese to buy U.S. bonds, not gold ) . A deliberate move to secure the Chinese position so as to discredit the U.S. economy, secure in their gold supply, ready to deepsix the U.S. economy by simply defaulting on their U.S. debt holdings. Ties in nicely with Asian Business News about why China orders its banks to cease putting cash into their stock market...such a move in any other market would have seen a major correction. Apparently, not a whimper in Chinese markets..why? What are the Chinese up to? The PLOT THICKENS...indeed! Keep your eye on the ball!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:43
Jack Nothing Real Good>(Nothing Real Good):

Richard Burke: All that I heard about the pure silver
stocks, is the talk about huge reserves which'll cost a
pretty penny to put in production.
Even Hecla ( now both PM's ) never lived up to its promise.

The only one that seems OK is Prime Resources
( gold/silver ) http://www.prime-res.com, Homestake has a
50%+ interest. It pays a dividend and a while back, a
report in Investor's Digest hinted that Homestake might
transfer its Canadian assets to Prime. It makes some
sense ( but that's no recommendation ) . Prime can pay back
with gold from Eskay, Snip, then Hemlo. if such were to
take place, Homestake would still have 50%+ stake and
still be the operation's manager.

There are other -no baloney- former silver producer's,
but the key word is former.
I think that this situation may bode well for the metal.
Question of secondary silver still lurks. Ain't no
Justiss.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:31
EWP EWP>(EWP):

FYI: For those interested in how much forward selling. I just received information on Campbell Resources ( CCH ) . It estimates their 1997 forward selling at 25% of production. I use to own CCH ( that is why I received latest report ) . Seems like a reputable company ( for the mining industry ) . Limited downside versus other juniors, IMHO ... I may buy back later.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:25
EWP EWP>(EWP):

June 20th: Bema annual meeting. They may, at that time, release independent scoping studies on Cerro Casale ( Chile ) property ( which they partner with Arizona Star ( AZS on Vancouver ) . Will it show the mother load or mother dud?

Earlier estimates have this property at:

The estimate of contained gold and copper in the Cerro
Casale deposit to 27.4 million ounces of gold and 7.6 billion pounds of copper.

This scoping study may confirm these numbers ( or update ) .

Supposedly PDG may be interested in Bema and/or Arizona Star if the numbers jive.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:16
Strad Master Clarification>(Clarification):

ONLOOKER and BOB A: I don't want us to all get bent out of shape here. My question to RJ is very specific and has to do with the philosophy and morality of trading the markets. I also posed it to him withour any rancor so, since it's my question, please permit me to keep this discussion as respectful as possible.

Let me provide a bit of background. It turns out that RJ works as a broker at the same brokerage that I maintain my bullion account. Not being in any way aware of this, I e-mailed him a question concerning bullion purchases since he evidences experience and knowlege in the field. He recognized my real name and in kindly writing back informed me that since he works as a broker at my brokerage, professional ethics forbade him to give me any advice. I understand and respect that. What stimulated all this is my posing what I thought to be a more generic question on the site, the answer to which might have been of use to many at this site. RJ's response brought to mind the question of why there is there no provision at my brokerage ( or any brokerage ) for obtaining a second opinion since his trading style is somewhat different from that of my broker. It seems to me that by combining talents and approaches, perhaps a more succesful overall approach to trading might be achieved. Now, there may be circumstances that mitigate against that. If so, I'm curious as to what they may be. I think a lot of my broker as a person and as a professional, but as I am primarily interested in the well-being of myself and my family I would like to have access to the best and most effective trading methodology possible. When cold-calling into a brokerage ( as I did initially ) one just gets whatever broker is next due to get a client. If there's no definite overall approach, and all the brokers are just in cutthroat competition with one another, then those who are lucky to reach a talented broker will do well while others who are not as lucky will get wiped out. It seems contrary to good economic sense for a large firm not to make every effort to maximize the success of EVERY client. From your comments it seems that there is an us against them mentality at work here and I'm not sure it should be like that. Anyway, I await RJ's response and hope this clears up any misintrepretation of my question. ( BTW Bob A: my handle is STRAD Master - as in Stradivarius violins. Thanks! )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 17:01
TED @novice>(@novice):

Novice: Let's not be rational...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:57
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

Panda ( 16:07 ) Now yer talkin....George S. Cole: I didn't sell a share in 1987 either...and here I am...right on the ocean!...With most of portfolio in D.R.I.P. just ended up with more shares when the crash happened...Is the world goin to come to and end...this time

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:55
BillD davis@crusader.bac.edu>(davis@crusader.bac.edu):

Mee toooo! Are there any good silver stocks worth looking at Gold seems to be in a strong state of MANIPULATION ...does silver look any better

Thanks

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:53
Novice @WOW/dow>(@WOW/dow):

An anecdote: had lunch with a German-Canadian friend today, just back from Deutschland and a meeting of the family business there. North America looks quite good investment-wise to certain Europeans, at least. Helmut Kohl and his ideas of European Monetary Union are not at all popular with her contacts. After handing East Germany a very generous 1 DM for each 2 ( practically worthless ) East German marks a few years back, they are not at all thrilled about the prospect of joining several European financial basket-cases in a watery EMU. Thus, a substantial part of her DMs have been used to buy US$$ and US investments. And, There was no mention of gold....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:20
George S. Cole blowoff>(blowoff):

Bullion down $2.40 today but XAU and HUI up slightly. We shall see who leads who.

Still see this market as in the final blowoff stage. Great for those who get out in time, but very painful for anybody caught without a chair when the music stops. Widespread expectations of Dow 10,000 not likely to be realized. When the market peaked at 2700 back in 1987 two months before the crash everybody thought the Dow would hit 3000 before trouble developed.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:12
Question @>(@):

Speaking of money supply. How has it been doing
lately?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 16:07
panda @ $.$.$>(@ $.$.$):

Let's see, if there are 250 trading days in the year and we assume a 1.5% increase in the Dow each day ( completely reasonable! ) . For every dollar you put in, you would get back $41.35 at the end of the year. I can hear you nay sayers now. Forget about the expansion of the money supply! Nobody is ever gonna sell! We'll all be rich! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:46
APH ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''>(''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''):

Nailz - Still looking for the XAU to go under 97, but it maybe a slow drift down. No punch in Fsagx again, i suspect the strong Dow is keeping the Xau up today. Stopped out of my S&P puts, reversed and bought the calls, using a trailing stop. This Dow is like trading soybeans in a weather market.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:46
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):

DOCDUKE: The File/Upload File... is from your Netscape menu. YOU choose the file on your computer to upload TO Kitco. It's fun and easy.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:46
Richard Burke Ag Stocks>(Ag Stocks):

Anyone: I am familiar with Silver Standard Resources as a silver stock play. What others are worth looking at? Also platinum stocks?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:38
Richard Burke xau-iffy>(xau-iffy):

Nailz: Further to my post last night, with abx showing no volume, gcq7 back under 245.50, Kaplan gold/xau differential stilll under 250, Deaner's warning for today happening, I also feel XAU will be down into the low 90s again. I have been in four gold stocks which have good leverage against the xau for the past month and came out this afternoon at close to breakeven including commissions. I'l try again later.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:27
Este on gold leaf>(on gold leaf):

Sorry to disappoint you guys but the gold leaf that you see in many buildings is not gold at all but anodized aluminum leaf. Most of this material comes from Europe, is quite inexpensive and looks like gold. Nobody could afford the real stuff for this particular use.
In spite of this detail, Mike Sheller's story was beautifully written and I also enjoyed reading it.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:25
Bob A to Strand Master>(to Strand Master):

My overall opinion of brokers of any kind is that they are salesman first , therefore I say let the buyer beware.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:10
Guzman have a nice trip, see you next fall>(have a nice trip, see you next fall):

Tort: Ixnay on the allfay word. : )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 15:03
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com):

Watching the gold market today makes me want to break out in nursery verse reciting Jack and Jill. The trouble is that neither gold ( Jack ) nor silver ( Jill ) wants to go up the hill but they seem to have both fallen down and broken their crowns without the necessity. Now then, how about Humpty Dumpty--he too had a great fall. Where are those king's horses and men that we need to put this market together again. All I can say is bah bah yellow sheep.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:59
Chicken Little @comex>(@comex):

Comex gold down 2.20;silver down 3.5 cents;platinum down 9.80; and palladium down 1.50 DOW up 119!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:54
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Nailz: I vote with you on the XAU. Looking at it seriously, a few minutes ago, it certainly looks like it is setting up to retest the low 90s again. ........ Aaaah, if this were easy, little girls would be doing it.... who knows they may be doing now and much better. ... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:52
Chicken Little @reality>(@reality):

Recent quote from Sir.John Templeton I have never been smart enough to predict the future course of markets!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:46
student still learning>(still learning):

Panda: Thanks for the info. I appreciate the warning and especially the humor. I feel no further need for self-induced pain. With what the stock market and the gold market are doing to me, I need no further self-induced pain- at least for a little while, anyway.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:44
nailz GEORGE S. COLE COMMENTS>(GEORGE S. COLE COMMENTS):

GEORGE.....We are basically singing off the same page of music. I am expecting a drop in gold a little lower than you are...That drop carring the XAU down to the mid or low 90s.....APH... you there....What do you think

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:44
Chicken Little @gunrunner>(@gunrunner):

GUNRUNNER: Buy Inco! Stock symbol=N

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Vieserre: Dec 98 400 calls under $300 ...Aaaargh. In this climate, the bids *cannot* be too ridiculous. Take your first thought and reduce it by at least 50 bucks. ..... But imagine, someone is willing to allow you to watch the price of gold for a period of almost 18 months for less than $3.00 an oz. ...... They are convinced that they will never have to perform. Either by normal market action or default.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:41
GFD Amazed>(Amazed):

The posts on this site over the last two weeks have been excellent. This place can be amazing.

George S. Cole: I dunno about the Dow fizzling anytime soon. The 5 minute chart of this steamroller does not look like it's going to stop any time soon. It could hit 8200 by July but I suspect we may see 10,000 by Sept unless this chart starts getting sicker soon.

http://fast.quote.com/fq/geocities/chart?symbols=$INDU&time_period=5-minute%20Bars&bars=420&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&key=

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:40
Chicken Little @wallstreet>(@wallstreet):

The sky is falling The sky is falling!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:38
GUNRUNNER gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net):

RJ, All

I'm interested in obtaining metal. What, in YOUR PROFESSIONAL opinion, is the path of least resistance and/or preferred method. All options & opinions welcome from other sources as well. Please respond to the e-mail address posted here, if possible....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:36
TED @backfromocean>(@backfromocean):

Nailz: Small world...eh...I lived there 1968-1969....DOW only up 115! What gives....XAU down .77 ...what gives...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:32
Onlooker @fire...>(@fire...):

StradMaster ... If I couldn't be sure that my broker was working for me ( and by broker I mean everyone in the office ) I'd fire the SOB. What, now if there's breaking news, you shouldn't hear because there may be a conflict of interest? Conflict to money in the bank they mean...Your Money, Their Bank !!! Get rid of the bums if they won't help!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:24
Crystal BAll Upward Implosion@Wall&Broad>(Upward Implosion@Wall&Broad):

e: Stock Market- To the moon, Alice !!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:23
Strad Master Huh?>(Huh?):

BOB A: Thanks for the comment. Please forgive me though, but I don't see how it relates to the question.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:20
panda @>(@):

Whhhooppps! That last one was for Front.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:19
panda @? >(@? ):

I'll find out later tonight... I have both, explorer came with NT 4.0, but I don't use it.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:17
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

BART & PANDA:

The upload file is available in NETSCAPE only.... What do the unwashed with MS EXPLORER do?

TTFN

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 14:16
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

BART & PANDA:

The upload file is available in NETSCAPE only.... What do the unwashed with MS EXPLORER do?

TTFN

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:56
General to ARK>(to ARK):

I heard that, Brah! I got the bug too; caught it in 1980 and
haven't shaken it since. I lost a wife ( at least partly because of )
and much money due to my obsession with the yellow and white stuffs.
I don't know if I can take it much longer. My philosophy now, which
I admit will be hard to stick to, is to accumulate cash positions
and just let my current metals/stock holdings ride for the long haul.
Just wait, I'll get a metals newsletter tonight touting the next
real Bre-X. What's a fool to do?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:54
Bob A to Strand Master>(to Strand Master):

Let the buyer beware. You pays your money you takes your chances.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:18
Fundy Investor's Digest>(Investor's Digest):

Jack: Investor's Digest tipped me off to the probable rise in Canadian banks in the 1990-91 period ( did not think to memorize the specific issue ) . All of the major banks have done very well with some in the teens at that time now hitting their head on $60.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 13:17
George S. Cole Projections>(Projections):

NAILZ: I will not be shorting the XAU here, although it probably will go lower. Risk/reward ratio VERY unattractive unless you believe bullion is headed for another steep plunge. Better shorting opportunities elsewhere.

With the Dow Industrials continuing to advance relentlessly with hardly a respite and the smaller stocks stalling out, the market looks like it will peak earlier than my original late summer target date. The first half of July seems the best bet at this time. Gold should start doing much better about then. The current washout still has further to go though. Look for a downside breakout below $340 that may carry as low as $335, and then a big reversal up.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:53
nailz SHORT XAU >(SHORT XAU ):

ALL....Anybody else looking to short the XAU here

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:49
Strad Master A question>(A question):

RJ: One further point. ( Please believe me when I say I'm not arguing with you on this I just am throwing this out as a question of interest that has occureed to me as result of our recent dialogue. ) My wife is a doctor. It is common if not expected that when a diagnosis is made that the patient gets a second opinion - if not a third and fourth. In fact, my wife insists upon it. In this case, where thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars are involved, why is it that if I, the client ( patient ) seek a second opinion it is considered a breech of ethics? Why doesn't our brokerage make that sort of thing available to it's clients? After all, isn't it the goal of the company to make as much money for it's clients as possible and thereby facilitate long-term relationships? Perhaps others might care to respond, too?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:45
nailz HEY TED !!!!>(HEY TED !!!!):

TED.... Atlanta is about 4 hours away from me.....Interesting you lived out on the Buford Highway. I used to live out there, too. My father worked on the dam at Buford and we lived in a little community called Sugar Hill...That was about 1955....I have friends and business occasionally in Atlanta so I go there several times a year. Next week in fact....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:16
Vieserre home>(home):

EARL: That option can be had for under $300

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 12:09
panda @>(@):

DocDuke -- Once you are in the directory, click on File ( your browser ) , then click on Upload file. A directory box will appear. Then select the file that you wish to upload. Click on Open, or double click on the file, and it's on its merry way.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:46
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net>(Strad1@idt.net):

RJ: I assumed by posting on a public forum where we are both anonymous and ALL could benefit from your answer, any conflict of interest problems would be mitigated. Had I not e-mailed you and had you not figured out that you work at my brokerage, no such problem would exist. Whatever you write is still your ( experienced ) opinion and so subject to my own flawed scrutiny. Nevertheless, I understand and will desist from any further questions and will try to glean what I can from your postings.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:37
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):

Anyone: I'm looking for a goldbug vaccine. The bug casued
me to sell G @ 44 two years ago. Also, I sold CLX @ 67.
I also fell under the spell of Alan Abelson. Now I'm loaded
up to the gills in gold mutual funds and stocks. Only a
severe case of goose bumps prevented me from jumping on
Bre-X at around 200.

I wanted to buy the blue chips last month but I couldn't rid
myself of the bug. It is worse than a tick. Chiggers I don't
mind. I lost thousands on HM alone but still I buy. I
have my last will and testament instructions not to sell my
gold stocks untill spot gold hits 500 as I may not live
long enough to see it.

Faith, the evidence of things not seen...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:36
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE):

Novice: Got your missile...thanks!...Will be back in yer face after the ocean adventure...No blackflies out there....Howdy Tort: Did I get the right broker...Irrational exuberance LIVES....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:23
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):

Bart: I tried your ftp URL. With Netscape 3.0, here is what I got:
Current directory is /pub/discussion
Up to higher level directory

There was no file to be found for uploading.
You may need to set the file permissions for world read access.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:23
TED @front>(@front):

Front: I had a brutal day driving to the bank and back...must have seen at least ten other cars on the drive and my nerves are shot!...Keep tellin meself...slow down...slow down...and smell the roses...Time for a little ocean kayaking and loon watchin...Hope yer day has been a little less HECTIC...on the river...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:16
TED @panda>(@panda):

Hi Panda!...Ain't Mt.Washington pretty!..Re- ( 8:43 ) It's nice to see someone following the news and not just wishful thinkin...DOW up 67...Long Bond up 30 ticks with yield @ 6.76%...Comex Gold down 1.20, Platinum down 9.80, and Palladium down 8.50...XAU down 1.03....Dow now up 73....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:12
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):

Another possible scenario for gold: Movement recently in the August is from 341.60 to 347.60 for a six dollar move. 66% retracement, as Dr Doom has pointed out is golds typical retracement, is equal to 4 dollars for a low of 343.60. Todays low ( at least so far ) .

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:12
asianmgt asianmgt.space.net.au>(asianmgt.space.net.au):

Nick and Yvon

Thanks for answering my call. I truly thought that I was talking and nobody could hear. The information is exactly what I needed and the web site is now a favourite to be fully explored Thanks again.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:04
TED @nailz>(@nailz):

Nailz: Do you live in Atlanta?...I used to live on Buford Hwy. in N.E. Atlanta....Scaterie looks beautiful today...

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:02
panda @mountain.view>(@mountain.view):

For days like these, I offer this live view from the summit of Mt. Washington, N.H. Try it!

http://www.mountwashington.org/mtw_camera.htm

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:01
nailz LMAO at PANDA>(LMAO at PANDA):

PANDA.....I needed the chuckle I got from your description of the HUI...That part could, however also describe several contracts and indicies....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 11:01
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

All: For those with an interest in options. The Dec 98 400 calls continue to be a bargain for those who wish to pursue them. I put in a bid at $370 earlier this week and was filled this morning. With gold continuing to look soft, a bid of $300 would look like a good possibility.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:57
panda @follow.up>(@follow.up):

student -- You may need this to see the option blurb...

http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html

Download a free copy of Adobe Acrobat....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:55
vronsky THE COURT BARD OF KITCO>(THE COURT BARD OF KITCO):

Mike Sheller: the cradle will fall, and down will come market, cradle and all. Sheer poetry. That was a magnificent piece.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:51
nailz GOOD STUFF THE LAST FEW DAYS>(GOOD STUFF THE LAST FEW DAYS):

There has been a lot of good food for thought on here the last few days. Just because I haven't been posting doesn't mean I haven't been watching. MIKE SHELLER...Good story. Have you ever been to Atlanta The entire exterior of the dome of the capital building is covered with leaf gold. Is it ever bright in the sunshine. RJ.... I have printed several of your posts over the past couple of days to really study at a later time. Some of your rationale is very clearly evidenced in the news every day. I appreciate your posts and will respond to parts of them some day. TED....I still hear the call from Scaterie and Oak.....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

AAA -- There is a lot in what you say. Even though the price of gold has dropped, there has been no decrease in demand. In fact, given numbers posted by various organizations, just the opposite! Just given the greater demand than new supplies being mined eventually puts it into crucial shortages. That, in and of itself, is just a matter of time. Who knows at this time how much the CBs have already loaned out? Maybe they are at or close to the point where no more is available. Are the governments actually going to continue selling gold? Maybe and maybe not. There does seem to be a few questions with fewer ready answers. Also, there are many other possible scenarios that can cause it to skyrocket. Don't need all that paper coming home to roost for that to happen.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:50
panda @>(@):

student -- The HUI index is an instrument for the inducement of great amounts of pain in ones self. Particularly with regards to ones personal finances. That being said, the HUI is the Amex Gold bugs index. It is comprised of unhedged gold producers. Read more about it at http://www.amex.com/options/intro.htm#s_index But don't say I didn't warn you! :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:38
student still learning>(still learning):

Can someone enlighten me? What is the HUI index? What does it measure?
Where is it traded?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 10:23
AAA ##>(##):

RJ:
I have read some of your thoughts ( and activities ) in the metals
markets. Very clear and well thought out writing. Anyone that has used your approach to viewing and investing in this area has been right for some number of years! But do the buyers of gold use this approach?
I have to also look at this story from a different slant.
Every last ounce of gold that was ever mined was purchased,
either as jewelry or some form of bullion.
It seems that the CBs picked up most of what they have prior to 1970.
Even back then that amounted to only about 1/3 of all gold. Individuals
worldwide, owned in one form or another all of the rest. It also seems
that, net/net the CBs have stayed a little less than even over the last 26 years. So, did not individuals buy all of the gold mined over this period?
Yes they did pay many different prices for it but, they bought it all! And they still have it! Granted it does move from one hand to another as
the price changes but nowhere can I find that they changed the stuff back
to ore and sold it to the good earth Also, and for reasons I�m not sure of, they are still buying all that can be produced and then some! Think about it, the dam stuff pays no interest, has been the worst investment you can think of, has no future as money in this society and they still can�t get enough
We all think of $300.00 an oz. as something special but when it crossed
$200.00 the last time, everyone knew it would be back to $100 very soon!
Yet over the next 17+/- years the world purchased every ounce at $100 +
higher? Seems whenever someone wants to sell the real thing because
it�s going to $200 there is always a ready buyer. Could it be that the small gold buyers and holders of the world ( unlike us investors ) don�t look at it as an investment? Doesn�t the last 26 years of gold buying history make this more like �the truth�? When you think about it most small traders sell the futures ( paper ) and still keep a few ounces in the vault while the big boys move nothing but paper gold ( all kinds, you name it they sell it ) and never hold metal.
As a person walks thru his house does he not look at all of his possessions as wealth? The TV, pictures, carpet, car, etc. are not looked at as an investment but what you own. Perhaps the last few decades have shown that the worldwide perception of gold has changed. It is now more viewed as �part of something you own� , as in �wealth� and not �money�.
Could it be that today investors are trying to �make something out of gold that it is not� and �gold buyers are making something out of it that it is�!!
Could it also be that the buyers, out of no intention of there own, may break the big gold traders? I guess time will soon tell as it always does.

regards

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 09:50
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):

Morning Ted, fellow suffers all. I enjoyed Mike Sheller's parable this morning and I certainly can relate. Given my recent experiences in the market I post the following:

Two commodity brokers were driving down a country road at high speed and passed a pickup truck with an old couple inside. Look at those fools, pa! Must be a couple of commodity brokers and they will surely meet their maker soon, I tell you.

Well, sure enough, a little while later the couple comes across a bad accident involving the two happless brokers.

Well maw, we got to do what any good folk would do and give em a decent burial. So the couple dug a hole and buried the brokers. Just as they were putting their tools away, a cop drives up.

You folks see this accident?

No sir, but we knew them dang fools were going to have it when they passed us doing a hunert miles an hour. Well, we finally come across the accident and gave them commodity brokers a decent burial

Are you were sure that they were dead

Well, they said they weren't, but you know how those commodity brokers exaggerate and lie!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:43
panda @>(@):

With more data like this, we will hit 6.6% on the long bond. Besides, the 'new' currency is stox, not cash or gold..... :- ) )

08:37 US RETAIL SALES FOR MAY DOWN 0.1%; DURABLE GOODS SALES -0.4%.
08:35 US NEW JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 AT 339,000 IN LATEST WEEK.
08:32 MAY RETAIL SALES -0.1%; EX-AUTOS -0.1%.
08:31 U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 TO 339,000 WEEK ENDING JUNE 7.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:19
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):

Mike Sheller That was a great anecdote! Sometimes the best answers are not in the charts, stars, etc but right in front of our noses! If your head had been down in total despair you might have missed those floatingindicators! Your posts are an inspiration, keep looking up!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:06
Mike Sheller Anecdotal dotings>(Anecdotal dotings):

RJ, ALL: I know I had fun with the concept of anecdotal platitudes about gold the other day, but I have a deep reverence for anecdotal evidence in the markets. Let me tell a true story. In mid '89 I got bullish on gold and silver, and built a leveraged bullion position for myself that started to go sour as the metals turned down. I won't go into the details of my folly, but suffice it to say that by '91,'92 I was getting my you-know-what kicked. I finally had to cry uncle and sell out. It was the worst shellacking I had ever taken in the markets. I had been right in the mid '70's when I loaded up for a long-term play on silver bullion, but now I was in the pits. I was walking out of my office building on Third Avenue in Manhattan one winter afternoon after my crushing defeat, and the lobby was bustling with construction scaffolds and workers. They had installed a new magnificent marble floor and a triple-domed ceiling. A glint of something somehow familiar caught my eye as it floated through the echoing space. Then another. Somehow, without even having to think, I knew it was gold. I looked up. They were gold-leafing the ENTIRE ceiling! I stood there, transfixed, as people rushed by me in and out. It was snowing gold flakes indoors, and as the building doors opened and closed the flakes were blowing out into the street. Slushy boots were grinding those noble flakes into the grimy wet New York City streets. Nobody but me seemed to know or care. I thought My God, they are painting the ceiling with it! No greater sacrilege could I imagine. And then it hit me! This was the bottom of the gold market! It was time to plan a comeback campaign. I worked myself slowly into position for the '93 rally, and thanks to a fortuitous interpretation of Sunshine Mining's horoscope, I recaptured some of my lost confidence and funds in that advance. Sometimes the good clues are not in the statistics, and spreadsheets, and price charts. Or even the horoscopes. Sometimes it's a no-brainer like folks painting the damn ceiling with gold that wakes you up. Watch the balcony at the NYSE! Carefully. When the bough breaks, the cradle will fall, and down will come market, cradle and all.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 08:04
panda @>(@):

TED -- Fair warning! I'm going to buy some of dem stox, ya know, dem go-go kind. Dat'll fix da markets! Look what I done ta gold! ;- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:56
TED @irrationalexuberance>(@irrationalexuberance):

George S. Cole: People have been talking and talking about irrational exuberance in the financial markets for years and years...Is my large stake in XON at risk? Are they goin to go under...Better hurry up and cash that dividend check!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:47
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):

MGraves: Haven't looked at the garden yet to see if frost struck...Kill dem cut worms!...Panda: Sunny and 70 degrees ( F ) is today's forcast and throw in a gentle sea breeze and ya got nirvana...Gotta go to the big city and deposit some dividend checks and you can't beat the U.S/Canadian exchange rate...The Canadian Dollar vis-a vis the U.S.Buck is a BUY!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:39
George s. Cole Financial Crisis?>(Financial Crisis?):

I received the following E-mail today from Larry Parks

ject:
The BIS is worried about system risk too
Date:
Thu, 12 Jun 1997 01:38:40 -0400
From:
LPARKS@FAME.ORG
To:
lparks@FAME.ORG

Bank of International Settlements: Liberalised markets 'threaten
stability of payment systems'
TUESDAY JUNE 10 1997

By Wolfgang M�nchau in Basle

The trend for liberalised financial markets is becoming a serious threat
to the stability of global payment systems, the Bank for International
Settlements warned yesterday.

The BIS, the umbrella organisation of the world's central banks, said in
its 1996 annual report, published yesterday, that familiar shortcomings
observed in liberalised banking markets caused greater concern than the
spread of derivative instruments.

While we have not yet experienced the economic losses that might be
associated with a major failure in payment systems, which now routinely
process several trillion dollars' worth of payments a day, a few close
calls in recent decades were wake-up calls as well, it said. Violent
asset price swings, generated by excessive credit expansion, often, but
not always, accompanied by generalised inflationary pressures and
capital inflows, have been a major source of recent turbulence.

Weak governance of financial institutions, both internal and external,
has also been a common problem.

The BIS was particularly concerned about the ability of the financial
sector to respond to a possible downturn in asset prices.

The Japanese Big Bang in 1996, the erosion of US restrictions separating
commercial and investment banking and preparations by European
financial institutions for European monetary union all imply that
competitive pressures will intensify further and that financial
restructuring is far from over.

The bank suggested that even a small tightening of US monetary policy
could have a severe effect on financial markets.

It said the greatest risks to the world economy were related to
irrational exuberance in financial markets, structural reform in
European labour markets and possible market turbulence before economic
and monetary union.

The cautious tone was reflected in the annual meeting yesterday,
attended
by about 100 central bank governors.

The BIS acknowledged that the prospect for medium-term economic growth
in the world economy remained favourable, an assessment that is also
shared by other international institutions, notably the International
Monetary Fund.

But the BIS's overall outlook is markedly more cautious: Just as it
would be premature to declare inflation dead, it would also be unwise to
assume that sound fundamentals guarantee good performance in the near
term.

Perhaps the most pressing concern is that inflationary pressure in the
US
may soon prove more difficult to tame than expected and the expansion
may end abruptly.

Even a soft landing which demanded a series of tightening measures
might have significant implications for equity prices and other more
risky investments, the BIS said in its report.

Mr Andrew Crockett, general manager of the BIS, said: The fact that
asset prices are on the increase, when inflation is low, is something to
reflect on.

Bank for International Settlements

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:37
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):

RJ Many thanks for your well reasoned post of 03:12 and your CPI 04:35. You are what I felt we were missing, a good view from another perspective. I agree that it is the missing masses that have sapped the strength of the gold market by their absence along with CB sales. Until gold regains some of its charm with the common investor it will languish. Of course this can all change very quickly with a crisis of any substance. In any case, I find your unbiased market sense refreshing, even sobering, and hope you will be a long time poster here at kitco. I also think you are real smart since I moved most of my PM stocks into silver yesterday ( !: ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:33
Speed @yawn>(@yawn):

It will be interesting to note whether the Chinese step in below 340 again, assuming we drop below 340.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:28
Mike Sheller more catsup>(more catsup):

RT: Re XAU chart - optimistically, next major resistance on upside is 130-135 within 1 1/2 - 2 months. Beyond that, we've got something going. If it turns down from there, we get new lows into the winter for the final bottom. FUNDY: Wed:13:44 Awaiting the Event. This IS the event. You said prior to 1935 gold was worth 20.67 for 100 years. THAT is the point. Since '35 every nation on earth has been off specie convertible currency. This is the first Kondratieff Wave in history where no national treasury or currency has any tie to gold. Inflation is endemic and chronic. It can only be so when there is no way to check unrestrained currency and credit creation.That is why I say that in 1934 gold began a 150 year bull market that will not crest until the entire monetary structure of the past century is washed away and replaced. The first of 5 waves was from '34 to '80. The wave 2 correction has been unfolding since then. Wave 3 will begin in '98. But this is a long, drawn-out affair, so you can continue to make plans for the weekend. The ups & downs will be fun though.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:24
George S. Cole gold outlook>(gold outlook):

RJ: Agree with you that gold's technical action is terrible and that new lows are likely very soon. But I still believe this is the final washout in a brutal bear market that will reverse in a major way when stocks top out for good and fears about the health of the financial system escalate.

If the stock market drops a few thousand points and gold still cannot mount a powerful and sustained rally, then I for one will concede that perhaps the yellow stuff is dead for the foreseeable future. I would place the odds of such a scenario at about one in ten.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:16
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):

CHEROKEE: Your 23:58 should be the frontispiece for The collected Works of Kitco. Happy stalking, warrior.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:13
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup):

RJ: A move to 335 ( or thereabouts ) in gold would put the price on the support line one could draw connecting the '85 and '93 bottoms. A case could be made that we have already done that at 340 ish, and that time/space aberration on the long-term chart has compensated. In any event, I do agree that equities have stolen the hearts of the masses. My credo at this juncture is I'm in it for the long term - if it drops I'll buy some more. Physical gold that is. I do think this is probably the contrarian year. Glad you enjoyed the laffs.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 07:07
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):

Mornin Ted : The seagull dropped a tomato on ya!!! Too nice a day for this old puter , see ya later !!!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:58
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

RJ -- Perhaps we'll see that 338 number Friday. Regarding that very long posting, I'd simply like to say that when a gold trader basically asks what good is gold, it kind of makes me wonder about the traders' veracity should 'things' in paper of various kinds get 'interesting'. I would really hate to see someone be on the wrong side of 'that' trade! As a percentage move, silver will certainly out-perform anything gold can do! That was a great posting! Thanks!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:49
panda @heatwave>(@heatwave):

Hi TED -- A most interesting board at the EBN site. Every commodity is up EXCEPT gold and silver! What's wrong with this picture? BTW, why doesn't anyone want to play on the Globex today/last night?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:47
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

How many have missed the entire bull-market in non PM stocks by thinkin doom+gloom...Last night the Hang Seng was down 497 ( 3.45% ) and it looks like the bubble is bursting in that IMPORTANT market...Mornin MGraves!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:39
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

EBN Gold down 2.10 and Silver down 3 cents....but it is a beautiful sunny day on the ocean....Front: Tomorrow is TGIF.....Mooney: Get to work! Hi Tort...and Panda!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 06:35
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):

RJ: With EBN showing gold off 2.10 are you about to take some profits? Enjoyed your June 12 03:12 post. Appreciate your thinking, even tho I do not always agree.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:57 RJ GOLD DOWN 1.50 IN HONG KONG>(GOLD DOWN 1.50 IN HONG KONG):

Maybe $340 by friday. I'm still looking for $336 - $338

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:49 RJ Have yoy read my 03:02?>(Have yoy read my 03:02?):

STRAD - I can make no recommendations for you. As you already know, there is a conflict of interest between us. Your broker is a colleague of mine. Ethics forbid. My postings should describe my opinion. I'm sorry, buy we had this communication B4. General philosophy maybe. No Strategy. You sound like a gentleman, good luck.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:35 RJ Us Government CPI for the last 20 years. Complete with Gold Statistics>(Us Government CPI for the last 20 years. Complete with Gold Statistics):

.............CHANGE..$1.00.........LOW...HIGH...AVRG

1977........6.8%.....$1.07............127....168.....148
1978........9.0%.....$1.16............167....245.....206
1979........13.1%...$1.32............463....825.....644
1981........8.9%.....$1.61............389....597.....493
1982........3.9%.....$1.68............298....486.....392
1983........3.8%.....$1.74............373....510.....442
1984........4.0%.....$1.81............307....405.....356
1985........3.8%.....$1.88............282....349.....316
1986........1.1%.....$1.90............327....443.....385
1987........4.4%.....$1.98............389....502.....446
1988........4.4%.....$2.07............392....487.....440
1989........4.7%.....$2.17............356....419.....388
1990........6.1%.....$2.30............346....425.....386
1991........3.1%.....$2.37............341....403.....372
1992........2.9%.....$2.44............328....362.....345
1993........2.7%.....$2.51............325....414.....370
1994........2.7%.....$2.57............372....401.....387
1995 .......2.7%.....$2.64............371....398.....385
1996........2.7%.....$2.72............368....417.....393

AVRG........5.1%.....$0.36............327....439.....383

...........................................GOLD AVERAGES

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 04:22
Strad Master Strad1@idt.net>(Strad1@idt.net):

RJ: About this time of night the site is pretty much left to us late-night West-coasters. With the markets opening at 5:30 AM our time, when do you ever sleep? Anyway, I for one, have geatly enjoyed and benefitted from your postings and am delighted that you're such an active part of the site. ( Glad you resolved the tiff with Front. I e-mail him frequently and he's one of the nicest guys you could ever hope to meet! ) My question to you is this: What specific signs would you look for to confirm a gold price breakdown where a person in my position might unhedge a bit to the short side? I actually have had genarally better success with shorting but as my equity has gotten somewhat stretched tight ( relieved a bit now by PA and PL ) , unhedging the gold becomes a tricky call. I personally have no particular attachment to gold, except for the little bit I keep in the safe, and so would far sooner make a profit on the larger amount I have in storage and then turn that over into silver. I really appreciate any advice you might have.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 03:35 RJ Other curencies>(Other curencies):

I have done no hstorical studies on forien curency affect on gold. OI have, however, A yen / platinum chart that is almost earie. As goes the Yen, so goes platinum. Will someone explain how I might post these charts

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 03:12 RJ Gol for the rest of 1997>(Gol for the rest of 1997):

Auric - ( 01:30 ) - Ah... But you have called my bluff. No way would I take that wager, charity notwithstanding. How about my goal of $335 half a dozen times before $400 once�? I do believe all the metals are due for a substantial move in the next two years. Gold may go for the ride, but silver and the PGMs will lead the way. I am basically bearish on gold in the next few months, to the tune of 1.8 million short @ $348 & 350. I Did 5000 oz from $348 to $338.5 a couple months ago. Wished I had taken $339.5 last week, but my mind was on the PGMs and it happened so quick. There hasn�t been enough of a rally to re-short, so I guess I�m happy I stayed in. I think it was Eldorado who thought I might be trying to convince members of the group to short. I am making no trade recommendations. I am only describing my views. Besides, if we all ganged up, sold the houses and the kids, and put every penny we had into short gold, we wouldn�t make a ripple in the market. That�s why the PGMs are so fun, the market is thin enough to move. Even silver can be bounced around for a few tens of millions, Not gold, the market is too massive. Only the CBs have the power to move the market significantly. Correction, 40 or 50 million American citizens with a like amount of Asian and European nationals could push gold through the roof.

It is precisely these great unwashed masses that are missing from this market. The equities have stolen their hearts and the romance has a ways to go yet. I, with the rest, called for a true correction in the equities when the Dow was 5000, and then 6000. A 10% drop from 7000 and strong recovery has made me a believer. Please don�t take that statement to mean that I will buy into it. These lofty heights make my nose bleed. Hell, I felt more comfortable buying palladium at $204 than I would buying the Dow, NASDAQ, or S & P, at these levels. But, although self contradictory, I too believe the Dow will go to 8K, perhaps even 10K in the next 18 months. We are in the era of irrational exuberance and the sodomites will not come up for air.

The mutual fund market is more than 3 trillion strong, 2 of which came into the market since 1990. How many funds are there now? 7000, 8000? I�ve given up trying to keep track. The funds managers are so flush with cash, and more in pouring in every month. I viewed the 4 - 5 billion per week rise in money markets a year or so ago as a sign that people were getting nervous, converting to cash. Dividend ratios had dipped below 3%, normally a strong signal of a turnaround. What happened next? The Dow broke through 6K. Was that only last October? It�s seems an eternity.

I now wonder if there is a great sell off, where will the cash go? Historically some has always gone to the metals and particularly gold, but gold has lost its allure for the 90s American investor. These people fancy themselves savvy investors for making 30% last year. Believe me, I take calls from these people. They are congratulating themselves on the astute analysis when a blind lemur with dirt on his nose could have pointed out 30% on any financial page. Just invest in the smudges. The refrain of I�m in it for the long term, if it drops I�ll just buy more, can be heard in a great chorus across this land. Will it continue? I think so. Now, we are seeing increased interest in US equities, primarily from Europe, and Hong Kong. The reasons for this have already been addressed by others here, so I will defer.

The Question begs to be asked Where will this money go? Where can it go? There is simply to much $ and not enough investment vehicles. I never thought I would write anything like this. Were I to read these words 5 years ago I would have given a derisive snort and sent the writer away to wipe the hope off those rose colored glasses. Have we reached the day when 70 to 80 times prices to earning is considered normal, healthy? Is this irrational exuberance, or have we moved to a new era? I simply don�t know, we are in uncharted seas. All this weighs heavily on gold, and saps its funding. The longer this exuberance lasts, the more distant the primal tug of gold on the spirits of those that touted its virtues only a decade ago

. We now must speak of the psychology of gold. What is the feeling? Outside of this particular peer group, I mean. I receive calls every day from people who want to buy gold. The first question I ask is always, why? This is not meant to be a challenge, I truly want to know the belief system that compels their call. Apart from the occasional NRA, Republic of Texas ( yes I have sold to even them ) , apocalyptic doomsayers, I hear almost no clear cut or deeply held belief in gold. Oh, I�ve always wanted some, and I thought I might find out about it. Or, well, my dad always believed in gold, and I have some extra cash, so I thought I would buy some. Or, I thought I�d get some gold in case the stock market drops. Are you worried about a drop, I ask. no, but it can�t hurt to have some. I will sell gold for delivery to these and others.

Often I run into investers who wants to make profits in gold. I usually try to point them towards silver or platinum for profits as they almost invariably out perform gold in a rising market. The potential from profits is greater. As I have stated earlier, unless I am selling for delivery - which, if a person owns no gold, I always encourage - I use gold primarily as a short vehicle. In a falling market it�s protection is great, and in a rising market, the gold short looses less than the others gain. Gold is my platinum and silver condom. It protects me, It cradles me, it sings in my ear, and strokes my hair. Gold will hear my deepest thoughts and never, ever hold it against me when I sell it short. The way things have been going lately, its nice to get out sometimes.

Make no mistake I will leverage gold long, but only in a moving market. Why wait in gold when there is movement in silver? Besides a dark and ugly cloud seems to be over gold, and until that lifts, I will not fight it, I will use it.

Last year Central Banks sold more than 1700 metric tons of gold. Some was bank to bank but most was on the open market. Expectations of at least 1000 MTs in 1997 are very real. The longer these sales are held off, the more the market dreads the day they are sure will come. Now we are hearing rumblings about revaluation of gold stores coming from the Germans and Swiss. If the big four in Europe - Germany - France - Switzerland - Great Britain - sell any gold at all, we will see $320 - $325, possibly $300. The Russians are no longer a threat. I believe their gold is gone long ago to raise hard cash. An interesting aside, received on the COMEX last year; platinum with pictures of the Czar on the bars. 80 - 90 year old platinum. Is this the bottom of the barrel, or simply pillaged platinum from ex party members who have set up their various fiefdoms?

What about Bre-X? A very real expectation of 71 million ounces of gold was just taken off the market! Where is the reaction? That should have been good for $20, short term at least

What about the phenomenal rise of palladium, usually the forecaster of things to come. Look for platinum to follow in 4 - 6 weeks, with gold and silver hot on its heels a month or so later. We have seen many runs begin this way. I thought we were onto one in February but it was very anemic and failed completely. The PGMs in the last eight weeks should have roped gold and, willing or not, dragged it to $375 - $380. What did we get? A great short opportunity at $350. Gold is in a coma.

What about the recent drop in the dollar? Metals are dollar dominated what has happened to all that extra buying power? Where is it. Gold is a redheaded stepchild now and will remain so for the next few months.

I expect gold will test recent lows $336 - $338 in the next 3 - 4 weeks. If a small rally comes and fails again at $350, we will see $325. That�s my take on it. perhaps the only bullish factor, other than big equities correction, or further substantial drop in the dollar, is what I believe to be the start of a really sweet run in platinum. I Called for over $500 platinum within the month at$402. We hit $506 in London, but I didn�t get any part of that. Best I did was sell some in the 70s and buy some more in the 50s and 40s. I�m out of palladium for good. Let it go to $300 - it has a very good shot at it - it will go without men. My holdings are down to 500 oz and those will be gone at the next $225.

Gold may catch a ride, but in a market like this, I�ll take the leaders, silver and platinum. The profits are in these and they don�t bite too hard.

I hope this answered some questions for Eldorado. Next: why the western world won�t collapse. Maybe next week sometime.

RJD
June 1997

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 02:49
Bernie Raid on Fort Knox?>(Raid on Fort Knox?):

ted butler... re yours of 09.49....You stated that gold has physically been transferred onto the markets via lease agreements. Do you contend that gold has moved from Fort Knox or other US central bank depositories onto the market? If so, how much or what percentage of the central banks total gold supply is now in promises to return agreements?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 02:29
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):

RJ: Your example looks fine when you use US$ - but today's world is
filled with many options to store my wealth. Does your example look as
good when you use Yen, Marks, or the swiss Franc? These all compete
with gold as a store of wealth. Just wondering.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 02:17
Jack Fundy & Richard Burke>(Fundy & Richard Burke):

Fundy ( 19:18 ) ( 19:35 ) Richard Burke ( 20:53 ) Thank you
both very much, that's what this group is about.
Not being a wise guy, when I say that Investor's Digest
of Canada's Key Ratio for 1000 Canadian Stocks is a
favorite. A very balanced publication, all industries
covered.
They have helped find Gulfstream Resources of Canada who
has a good interest ( 27.5% ) in the Qatar Consortium ( a
group of majors ) .
More important, are the untouched natural gas interests,
which are reputed to be extremely large.
Now all that is required, is quiet in the Persian Gulf,
plus an LNG Terminal and maybe a petrochemical complex by
a group of majors.
A tall order, see, I don't just dream about the gold
stocks.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:59
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold):

August gold now down $1.60. The Fidelity gold funds have declined for 3 consecutive days. Another case of the stocks leading bullion lower. Would not be surprised if August gold drops $3 by tomorrow's close.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Bart Kitner: The BRE-X salt shaker was my idea but I'm willing to transfer rights to the Kitco Company Store at such time as it becomes a reality. .... For free, .... mostly. ..... ( :- ) )

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:47
George S. Cole stock market and gold market>(stock market and gold market):

Earl:

Agree that we are approaching trouble time for the overall market, but probably are not quite there yet. Still too many strong stocks and group. Also remember my argument that each phase of this bull market runs about half as long as the previous leg. This latest phase has lasted just 2 months; the previous leg lasted 9 months. Suggests we still have another month or two to go.

I plan to get out of all non-gold holdings by mid-July; don't like to play too close to the timeline.

But trouble time for gold stocks is now. August gold off $1.30 on modest dollar rally. Note that gold goes down sharply when the dollar rallies, but moves up little if at all when the greenback declines. That is what I call very bearish technical action. Looks like we are headed for a final washout in the the gold complex before the turn.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:40
Earl Jr. @dad>(@dad):

Earl: What is punctuation PA? You should have done a better job teaching me how to read and write and be cool like you and Uncle Eldo.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

APH: How do you view funds as a vehicle to do the bear thing? I cannot say that my use of options has been a thing of beauty and a joy to behold. And for tax deferred accounts, direct purchase of options is not an option.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:31
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Jr.: Now concentrate on punctuation and your listlessness will become less apparent.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:31
Earl Jr. @eldo>(@eldo):

Hi Uncle Eldo!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

George Cole:

As mentioned a few days ago, the momentum indicators are still diverging, on the Dow and SP500. I realize you are looking at the Russell 2000 primarily. I wish I had been capturing data for that index. Also, because a friend reentered a position in INTC on that last dip, I look at the chart several times a day, merely out of curiosity .... ( and because I told him not to do it ) ....... INTC as well as the SOX index both look grim. ASND, one of the stellar performers over the past 2 years is off about 20 in the last few sessions. Cold comfort. Why dint it do that a long time ago when I was short? ....... Overall; are we approaching 'tumble time'? BTW. Are you of the 'slow grind' or of the 'sharp drop' school of thought?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:26
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Earl -- Is this so-called Earl Jr. one of your cousins or something? He seems to like us a lot! Or do you suppose he is 'one of THOSE' kind?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:21
Earl Jr. @earl>(@earl):

Earl: I listen to your every word that you can count on. haha. Hi Eldo!
Now be nice to your son who hangs on pa's every utterance.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:19
Eldorado @the peek!>(@the peek!):

Earl -- HAR! But, don't include me in that title. I'll be among the first to break it!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:16
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Eldo: If that law comes to pass, it will be called the Omnibus No Peek Eldo Bill of 1997. Authored, no doubt, by that paragon of respect for feminine virtue; Theodore Kennedy. Also known as Chappaquidick Ted. ....

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:12
APH [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[>([[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[):

Earl - I wouldn't get to aggressive here....if you want to play I like July in the money puts on the SPX or puts on select stocks which couldn't rally to new highs during this recent Dow rally. Once the market drops I'd be more aggressive buying puts on the retracement.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:09
George S. Cole projections>(projections):

GLENN: Congratulations on your Dow 7500 forecast! Agree with you 100% that stocks will be headed up and gold sown for the next few weeks before both markets reverse in a substantial way. Say to Dow 8000 and gold $335.

BTW, gold quite weak tonight; off 90 cents a few minutes ago. As lomg as bullion cannot respond to good news, the path of least resistance will be DOWN.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:09
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):

FOR FASTER EASIER UPLOADING... try this. Go to ftp://ftp.kitco.com/pub/discussion by entering that in the same place on your browser where you would put a http:// address. Once there select File/Upload File.. from your broswser menu and you're done!

BRE-X DEPT: It looks like the real plan behind the Bre-X scam was to make the serious bucks by licensing the caps, T-shirts, and saltshakers!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:08
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Cherokee: Good to see ya back. .... It wasn't the fancy wimmin that created the excitement; it was the prospect of studded collars 'n whips 'n chains. ....... but realistically, who needs 'em when we have the gold market to stir the endorphins.

How do you feel about new crop grains. Is it too early yet? As you stand on those oft mentioned shoulders, do you see any signs of wickedly riotous reagents in the rearing belt?

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:04
TED @ted>(@ted):

Ted ( 00:00 ) Meant to say topless...was so rattled couldn't get out the right word...Whew...Hi Cherokee!

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Earl -- You certainly have that right! Besides, breaking 'laws' is just emulating what the government does so well.

Date: Thu Jun 12 1997 00:00
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

Front ( 22:24 ) I wouldn't want to see the Cape Breton Women bra-less!..haha
They've been eatin too many gov. hand-outs er somethin...EBN Gold down 1.30 and the Mailman CHOKED...big time!...Bra-less in Cape Breton=Nightmare...

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:58
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Eldo: Some laws are just naturally meant to be broken. ..... IMVHO. Listening Jr.?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:58
cherokee @another-SOLar system>(@another-SOLar system):

wow---take a 2 week hiatus from the pewter and what
do you get pew-titus! it is terrible and causes
foaming at the finger-tips. pewter keys got so
lathered-up, that steam, from the stream of key-strokes,
began to cause secondary burns on the cats' peripherial
vision centers.

what a marvelous medium, this inter-net, cyber-wet, world-wide
knowledge machine!! the pros and cons of everything from topless
women ( easy earl ) , to some alter-ego with a desire to be a big
trader ( probably wishes for OTHER BIG bodily appendages tam-bien ) .
from carlos castenada, to mike sheller and hale-bopp. IT is all
HERE, and more.

taking a respite from the daily platitudes this forum offers,
gives one time ( upon returning ) to reflect on the great diversity
this world, and this platform offers.

where else

no-where else, but kitco.

the written word is a thing of beauty, for all to see. speak it,
and it disappears into the void of the sleepwalkers. write it, and
the world becomes your critic, for better or worse, in good times and
bad, etc... ( earl knows those lines by heart )

the written language---one of the greatest inventions of ALL TIME!
the word---bearer of all that is, and harbinger of all that will be!

if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on
the shoulders of giants. isaac newton

kitco is full of giants. it is good to see the SAME flame, burning
in the breast of so many, from so many, diverse walks of life.

to the contributors, i salute you with 21 arrows aimed at the moon.
to the detractors, i part your scalp with big traders scapula.

le bon temps roulet, mes amies!!

cherokee!; ) driver of the smoke-signal-mobile for all time!!!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:55 RJ >():

Tried to download WS FTP for Win95, wouldn't let me on. Is it personal? How else might I post a file or graphic?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:54
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Front: Under present circumstances, I hesitate to mention it ... but that last post should have begun as ROT'F'L. ..... well enough, shall be left alone.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:53
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Front -- Re: the topless 'women'; Next, the government will make a law imprisoning or fining anybody who looks. Can't have 'sexism' now, can we!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:53
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Earl:

Passed 'em 8 minutes ago....
Off to bed ....
Pleasant dreams....

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:51
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Front: ROTL!! ... What are the present limits of propriety and are we approaching them?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:49
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Earl:

Can't...must change hands ....

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Front: What's next. Chains required, whips optional? ..... but oh my goodness, you do get me excited when you talk like that. Do go on. .... ( :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:43
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Earl:

I was referring to the young lady on local TV last night. She and a friend were washing store windows, exposing themselves, apparently to see some reaction from passerbys. When they interviewed her, she said she was hot and so disrobed. I can accept that and as you say might have helped some of them if only I had known. The problem was that this young lady had on a collar. Not just any collar mind you but it looked like a collar a dog called SPIKE might use. It had domination written all over it believe me. My immediate thought was why she would wear it and then it hit me that she was protecting herself from those who disapproved. Tough life when you must wear a dog collar in order to expose your breasts even when legal!

Panda: Com'on up....bring your wallet .... we need the money ever since the damn socialists put us soooo much in the hole. We're going to start charging by the ounce !

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:42 RJ Peace>(Peace):

Front - In case you did not notice, I apologized B4 your most recent. But you have a right to your response. I may be wrong sometimes, but I seldom stay wrong for long. You know nothing of me, nor I of you. I would hope that the sum of my arguments paints a picture of knowledge. In the passion of the moment, I sometimes forget that a sharp tongue cuts both ways, and a civil word begets civility

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:40
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: Yeah. I know what you mean. Like Magic Johnson's AIDs, it's easily
attained. And on a site like this, there's no tellin' what a guy'll pick up if'n he ain't careful. Like that USTN. Hear it's pretty much endemic.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:34
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

I was typing my lastest when you were posting.

If I had seen your apology I would not have written.

I to apologise.

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:33 RJ Maybe that's it>(Maybe that's it):

Earl - Maybe I do have some USTN. Gott'a do something about it.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:32
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

In my responce to your request for the verification of the figures, I wrote to you in a forthright and honest manner. I saw an error and attempted to say as much. I took the time out of my life to respond to you and yet what did I receive in your responce?

You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits

I'm sorry, but that is being too flippant. Are you absolutely sure I was not expressing a genuine sorry for having taken for granted that you didn't know where the $521.50 came from? I know absolutely nothing about you except that you're called RJ. You could be 13 years old and really interest in stocks. You could be 113 and too old to remember stocks. Who knows. So what should I do? You said you didn't know where I got the number. I explained and apologised for taking you for granted. If you perceive an insult, it is in your mind, not mine. Insulting you would gain nothing since I'm sure you realize that whenever an argument seems lost, name calling becomes the sword. You Sir were mistaken and swung the sword incorrectly in my direction.

You can spout all the numbers from here to eternity. You can post till the keys fail on your keyboard. You can do anything you wish except get into my mind and yet you have assured yourself that that was exactly what I meant and then proceeded to heap name calling on me.
Sorry RJ .... this time YOU blew it .....
If you expect respect, give it.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:22
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: BTW. USTN? Useless Sorts of Typographical Nonesense? Unreleased Sexual Tension, No Uncle Sugar's Tin Nutcan. Right?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:11
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):

Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:08
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: Foul deed most fouly presented! Cannon to left of them, cannon to the right of them; volleyed and thundered ... Having just exhausted my Tennison; .... was it fair to include in your analysis the years 1950 to the mid 1970s when gold was actually released from indentured servitude? Since there would only be a net loss for that period.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:05
panda @>(@):

Well, the precious yellow is being yellow again this evening. Time to say good night.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:03 RJ Personal Affront>(Personal Affront):

Front - I guess I got a little carried away, I apologize.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:02
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Panda -- When does a credit system implode/explode? For one thing, you have to remember that it is first based upon a debt currency. Makes a BIG difference! Most inflation is thereby based on the prevailing interest rates for 'money', with a bit of time differential. Given that a certain amount of currency has to circulate to have a viable economy, and given that ALL this currency/credit etc. is loaned into existence with the the prevailing interest attached. All of this expanded debt/credit based on promise to pay. This can go on for quite some time until the 'credit-worthiness' of the borrowers falls to such a dismal level that re-payment cannot be had. In our case, exporting decent paying jobs can't help the situation either. An ever expanding mass of bancruptcies ensues as a beginning of the end. How long beyond that for the end? Perhaps the purchasers of all that ill-fated paper find that they don't want to be caught holding the proverbial bag. It just becomes a matter of time. In fact, all debt based money systems begin with the end already written! Lovely, ain't it?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 23:00
panda @>(@):

New fifty Dollar bills tomorrow! Courtesy of;

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Vieserre: No, my son. You have elegantly displayed your bonfides. Feel free to enter the circle of those who know and practice all forms of egregious pomposity. ...... Listening Jr.?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:50
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Hey Front: C'mon. That bra burning business wasn't without it's compensation. You may have been less than thrilled with the political statement but it did much to change the summertime scenery. .... You know summer? The two weeks when the brass monkey is prominently displayed on the veranda. ...... As well, if you had known ahead of time you would have been prepared to gallantly offer matches and accelerant. ...... ( :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:44
panda @ :-)>(@ :-)):

Eldorado -- I've been working this from the wrong angle. I should be buying SPX calls and shorting the metals. This would cause the market collapse that some are looking for ( not me, oh no! ) and the metals to soar! You see I've got BT beat! I control the paper gold markets, yup. All I have to do is sell my HUI calls and gold will skyrocket! :- ) )

BTW, I guess no one is interested in the spoos tonight.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:41 RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):

I guess a spreadsheet doesn't paste so well. E-mail me for a copy.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:41
Vieserre The End of The Lease Triology>(The End of The Lease Triology):

EARL: Maestro, my obvious lack of communication skills continues to reveal itself for what I had thought I had expressed is exemplified by exactly what you contend. : )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:41
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

RJ -- Re: your 21:05 once more; Hope there is still some physical metal out there to be had once a run-up has occurred. One ( of many ) of the possible reasons for the run-up will be because there isn't! That will be a big reason to already have it on hand, and perhaps to keep it there. Just for a very possible 'bad paper day' type of scenario. IMHO.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:40
Vieserre More to Come>(More to Come):

TED BUTLER: I appreciate your thoughtful response, and there is certainly no need for a point by point rebuttal as you rightfully surmised. Moreover, my comments were not intended for argument but for self-enlightenment.

We still have points in contention. I cannot disagree that when metal is released to the market, price is influenced as more metal is being supplied to the marketplace. But I continue to contend that it does not change the supply/demand equation. There is indeed a double
book-keeping entry effect along each step of the lease transaction. And when the metal is sold there is a liability of repurchase created. It cannot be otherwise. To argue otherwise would defeat your position that the reason for the sharp increase in price is due to the
necessity of cover arising from the liability created under the lease transactions.

I accept as fact, arguendo, your contention that there has not been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. And I also do not dispute, as mentioned in my earlier post, that if their was a run for cover there should be a sharp escalation in price.

But I am constrained to disagree with your loan classification theory. Loans are made of cars, wheat, houses, and any and all sorts of property. And like, metals, if they cannot be returned because of being loss, destroyed, abandoned, or stolen, the lessor may recover damages for his loss. Accordingly, I see no difference with the metals. If the metals cannot be returned, the obligor has liability for damages for cost of cover. As to why the lease market shut down, I do not know all of the ramifications for this, and I would appreciate your comments on this. But I would assume, as you suggest, there is a limited supply, demand is high, and the lessor does not wish to lose the opportunity of selling a commodity rapidly rising in price by leasing it out for an extended period at a lease rate which cannot be reasonably calculated due to extreme volatility.

In summary, we are in complete agreement with regard to possible price consequences caused by outstanding leases should there be a cover run on the metal, even though we may disagree as to how and why we get there.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:38
Vieserre I Am Getting Leased Out>(I Am Getting Leased Out):

EARL, TED BUTLER: We may see the same thing but the manner in which I have described it may create the illusion of difference.

My prior comments were directed specificially to leases. But, even considering these and other such transactions of which I am aware in a generic sense, I do not dispute that such carry trade, hedging practices, and other shorting type derrivatives or activities can create a powerful latent technical force of cover in the underlying market that if played out over a short time period will unleash a rash of technical buying that should have the probable effect of causing a spike in price of the underlying stuff. And this is one reason why I maintain LT positions in gold equities and am bullish on the market.

What I have tried to suggest that in a perfect academic world these transactions have a double entry bookkeeping quality to them and have have not in any way affected the net supply of the stuff after they have been unwound. Accordingly, after each such transaction is unwound, the net affect on the price over time should be the same as if it had not executed. And any current effect on price will be whether these outstanding transactions are increasing or decreasing in number, and the time frame. Not unlike the effect of future players selling future contracts without the stuff they are selling and then reacquiring it by buying an offsetting contract.

And in many respects it is not much different in concept than a bank loaning out more money than it has in reserves with the adverse consequences engendered by a run on the bank. But as Ted adroitly points out, there are also differences, which I will address in specfic comments to him.

I will refer more directly to each of your comments in subsequent personal posts.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:36 RJ I was being generous>(I was being generous):

OK� Following are US Government CPI statistics. I think we can all agree that, if anything, the government understates these statistics. Also included are high and low gold prices for each of the last 20 years - provided by the Future Source, you read their FWN reports on the Kitco link. Note these numbers include $825 gold as well as $127 gold, hardly cherry picking my numbers.
I have added up the lows and highs and divided by 20. Who thinks this is a more accurate way to arrive at an average? Front, if you want to get snippy, I�ll let you be wrong at the top of your voice. My post to your carried none of the hostility contained in yours. But I guess this one does. I have also taken the low and high for the year and used the somewhat simplistic frontage method and then averaged those.

As all can see, I was being extremely generous assuming a 4% per year for the last 20 years. The actual average for the last 46 years is 4.1%! As can be seen, the last twenty years have averaged no less than 5.2%. I had no figures for 1995 and 1996 so followed the 2.7% trend of the two prior years, I expect no objections to that.

OK, lets move on, one 1950 dollar is today worth 15 cents, or, conversely one 1950 dollar had the same purchasing power that $6.62 does today. What was gold in 1950? According to the Kitco history of London fixes, $34.72. OK let�s call it $35, I�m not picky. What is 35 x 6.62? Lets call it $232. Gold is now $344 or thereabouts. 232 / 344 = 67.4 % return on a FORTY SIX YEAR INVESTMENT! Remember, 7% compounded doubles in 10 years.

One 1977 dollar is now worth 37 cents. One 1977 dollar buys $2.72 today. Using the low of 1977, and again, I am trying to be kind, higher numbers only make it worse, $127 / .37 = $343.24. Isn�t that just slightly lower than today�s close? Break even in 20 years? When those dollars have depreciated by almost two thirds? I leave the numbers with you. Should anyone like the Excel spreadsheet, e-mail me at rjd@pacbell.net and I will send it to you. Feel free to delve into the formulas to see what mathematical trickery I use. This is the common reference point I mentioned in an earlier post. I have quoted the source of these numbers, if anyone offers different, please do the same. Maybe someone can teach me how to post a file or image?

US GOVERNMENT CPI 20 YEAR GOLD
YEAR CHANGE $1.00 CHANGE $1.00 LOW HIGH AVERAGE
1950 5.8% $1.06
1951 5.9% $1.12
1952 0.9% $1.13
1953 0.6% $1.14
1954 -0.5% $1.13
1955 0.4% $1.14
1956 2.9% $1.17
1957 3.0% $1.20
1958 1.8% $1.23
1959 1.5% $1.24
1960 1.5% $1.26
1961 0.7% $1.27
1962 1.2% $1.29
1963 1.6% $1.31
1964 1.2% $1.32
1965 1.9% $1.35
1966 3.2% $1.39
1967 3.0% $1.43
1968 4.7% $1.50
1969 6.1% $1.59
1970 5.5% $1.68
1971 3.3% $1.74
1972 3.4% $1.79
1973 8.8% $1.95
1974 12.2% $2.19
1975 7.0% $2.34
1976 4.0% $2.44
1977 6.8% $2.60 6.8% $1.07 127 168 148
1978 9.0% $2.84 9.0% $1.16 167 245 206
1979 13.1% $3.21 13.1% $1.32 218 518 368
1980 12.6% $3.61 12.6% $1.48 463 825 644
1981 8.9% $3.93 8.9% $1.61 389 597 493
1982 3.9% $4.09 3.9% $1.68 298 486 392
1983 3.8% $4.24 3.8% $1.74 373 510 442
1984 4.0% $4.41 4.0% $1.81 307 405 356
1985 3.8% $4.58 3.8% $1.88 282 349 316
1986 1.1% $4.63 1.1% $1.90 327 443 385
1987 4.4% $4.84 4.4% $1.98 389 502 446
1988 4.4% $5.05 4.4% $2.07 392 487 440
1989 4.7% $5.29 4.7% $2.17 356 419 388
1990 6.1% $5.61 6.1% $2.30 346 425 386
1991 3.1% $5.78 3.1% $2.37 341 403 372
1992 2.9% $5.95 2.9% $2.44 328 362 345
1993 2.7% $6.11 2.7% $2.51 325 414 370
1994 2.7% $6.27 2.7% $2.57 372 401 387
1995 2.7% $6.44 2.7% $2.64 371 398 385
1996 2.7% $6.62 2.7% $2.72 368 417 393
1997
AVERAGE 4.1% $0.15 5.2% $0.37 327 439 383

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:35
panda @>(@):

Just a silly thought here, but at what point does the credit system implode or explode? If a currency is continually debased over time due to 'inflation', where and when does it stop? Is it asymptotically, as we approach one over zero ( 1/0 ) ? When a car costs $500,000 and gold is still at $340, or will gold go to $50/oz? At some point the credit system must 'fail'. One only has to look at the rising bankruptcy rate in a 'good' economy, and question some fundamental tenants presented by the gold bears.

One could write a lot of 'paper', and drive down the 'price' of gold to whatever, but in the end, isn't it about storing ones labor for future use? How does the credit system protect this when it is trying to constantly 'discover' the 'correct' interest rate ( lagging ) to preserve your purchasing power? BTW, it seems to do this poorly, or is that because of taxes?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:35
Vieserre home>(home):

EMU: vel Done : ) ) ) ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:34
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Nothing interesting going on in the gold and silver market! Oh well ... a couple of interesting annual meetings on June 20th ( I think ) .

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:24
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Mooney: Sorry but I missed it in the paper. Save it for me? Or have you already dribbled over it too much? The up here I was referring to was Ottawa. Personally, I knew this would happen as soon as they wanted to burn their bras. Shouldn't have given them the vote either! Must be Liberals !

TED: Sorry to leave you out of the view of the lovely ladies in Ontario, but according to you, those socialists are not much to look at eh! Well, if it catchs on in Cape Breton, maybe they will .......

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

Panda -- What? You never thought you could make a price drop just by buying it? Shame on you for your short-sightedness! ( All in jest! )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:19
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

To quote:

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals

Sit down for this....it's BIG.... That's exactly the point I was expressing in my post this morning. If we had sold when Gold was at $800 we would have had a profit.

Does this mean we agree? Oh GOD! What have I wrought !

TTFN ( :- )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:18
panda @>(@):

Steve Puetz -- You've seen what I've done to the gold sector by buying in to it, wait till I get to the S&P! :- ) )

Front -- I'm on my way to see the public display in your area!

RJ -- ROTFL........ Rolling On The Floor Laughing :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Speed: Und zen ve vill haf ze bratwurst und bier. Ya. Mucho cervesa, muy bien.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:14
Speed ooops>(ooops):

I meant EMU not EWP, sorry.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:11
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

APH: Are you saying that the time has arrived to consider some bearish derivative instruments? Like puts 'n things? If you are prone to such; what strike and time?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:05
Speed this is fun>(this is fun):

Earl: Ve vill haf order und discipline here!
Remember Hogan's Heros? Those terrible German accents. I read EWP's post in that tone and laughed out loud.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: No, not really. And yes, you would be crossing over the line. It should become a part of the idiom ( gonna regret that word ) by common assent. .... But what the hell; you've ( you have ) already broken all rigidly held standards of decorum here anyway so ..... by all means, continue. .......

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:01
vronsky I REMEMBER ALL TOO WELL>(I REMEMBER ALL TOO WELL):

RJ: You would do me a disfeavor by mistaking politeness for memory lapse. But apart from that, perhaps, you are referring to Lee J. Cobb ( his Hollywood name ) - which was a drastic contraction of his real ethnic name.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 22:01
APH .............................>(.............................):

S&P Cash - Last night ( 6/10 19:56 ) I posted that Wave III being 2.618 x Wave I on a monthly chart would project a high at 870.70. Today's cash high was 870.66. Close enough. We should go down into the 39 week cycle low due end of June early July.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Speed: Wasn't aware LOL had that connotation. .... Geeez, if we can't handle a few contractions, how do you think the europeans will handle EMU's new English?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:54 RJ You took the bait>(You took the bait):

Front - stand by.............

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:53 RJ who you winkin' at>(who you winkin' at):

Earl - thanks, I feel up to speed now. Hey a new one! UTSN. is that allowed? can I just make something up like that, or am I crossing over the line here?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:53
vronsky EMU - ENGLISH LANGUAGE MASTER>(EMU - ENGLISH LANGUAGE MASTER):

EMU: Ref: Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:29 -- EMU ( @London ) : Many thank you's for relieving a tediously long and tiresome day. That was brilliant and very funny rhetoric.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:51
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

Sorry to have been a burden to your calculator.

Sir:

You get an AVERAGE by adding the numbers and then dividing by the number of items added i.e......

$327 + $716 = $1043 / 2 = $521.50

You quoted the word average. I thought you knew how to achieve it . Obviously I was mistaken. I'm sorry. My mistake.

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:51
Speed uh oh>( uh oh):

Earl: We better get together on this or the new guy will think we're pulling his leg. : )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:50 RJ Vronsky>(Vronsky):

Vronsky - someone thought you were me. ( 00:36 ) I hope this puts and end to all such rumors. After all you couldn�t even remember that it was: Henry Fonda, E.G.Marshall, Jack Klugman, and the Loud Overbearing, Lillyliverd guy.. .. who was he? You know, the last guy to fold. Little help here.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:49
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: Laughing Out Loud. ..... had an addition to your list but it was too salacious for a straight laced group like this. .... Before this becomes too tedious: BTW = By the way. .... and that should complete the most commonly used shorthand.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:48
Speed @home>(@home):

RJ: LOL - lots of luck BTW- By the way Also try the emoticons like ; )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

RJ -- Re: your 21:05. Last three paragraphs: Now your talkin'!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:44
vronsky THE MOVIE>(THE MOVIE):

RJ - Of course I was referring to the TWELVE ANGRY MEN.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:43
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: Who me? Nah! I tend more toward pompous than Orwelian. ..... Lest we become distracted from the evening's ( evenings ) business; I agree with your earlier post. .... A trite expression, Fall in love with your women, not your investments. .... Personal experience has cast a doubt on the advisability of the first statement as well.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:41 RJ LOL>(LOL):

LOL..... Loud, Overbearing, and Lillylivered? Hey, I�m new at this.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:41
vronsky Twelve Angry Men. >(Twelve Angry Men. ):

RJ: It is also one of my 10 favorites of all time. Was It Fonda? Its been many a year since I last saw it.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:38 RJ Forgot my manners>(Forgot my manners):

Prior to EMU. Hmmm EMU, is that the same as the bird? You know long neck, knobby knees, ostrich like?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:33 RJ Is it Newspeak?>(Is it Newspeak?):

A hilarious if somewhat Orwellian post!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:32
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

RJ: LOL. .. Nah! Nothing as clever as that. Merely, shorthand for a popular form of literary affectation; In My Humble Opinion. Often seen with variants. ......... ( :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:28 RJ OK, Lets have it>(OK, Lets have it):

Have some pity on the new guy. What is IMHO? I�m Mad as Hell Over this? I Must be Holding to much, Overbought? IMagine Hanging Ourselves? The Independent Metals Holistic Organization? Incurably Mentally Handicapped Other-worlders? Are you guys even human? What have I gotten myself into.....

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:22
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Jr. : Please check out EMU @20:29. Consider it the first step to adult communication. BTW, IMHO, your vocabulary has shrunk. It was much deeper and more colorful the other day.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:18 RJ I do belive>(I do belive):

PB - I have always believed in the Sun Ether. I just never had a face for my faith. Thank you for enlightening me. I feel sooooo warm...........

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:14
Larry The race has begun>(The race has begun):

I haven't seen too many comments about the most obvious and possible most reliable indicator in the universe. What are the chances of 'Touch of Gold' and 'Silver Charm' coming in 1-2 in the Belmont. This is an obvious sign from whoever is in charge.

While a good analyst can evaluate indicators, a great analyst knows which indicators are real. You have been alerted, so make the most of it.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:13 RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):

Mike Sheller - 06:16 - By far the most enjoyable posting I have ever read from these hallow halls. I laughed out loud. Your second posting - 08:35 - was well reasoned and wise. Let me offer my highest form of praise: You are a man who thinks the next thought. I sense a kindred spirit.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:11
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

IMHO, ( for you Jr. ) ...... Back to Philby. The banks can put whatever value on gold that pleases them but as long as there remains an open market, the market will determine the price. Very much like interest rates. The market controls those as well. ...... The only way they can maintain control is if they confiscate the metal and ban individual possesion.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:05 RJ Keep reading>(Keep reading):

Front - Were did the figure of $512.50 come from? I�ve been doing mathematical contortions all day trying to figure it out. You are correct, I asked for refutation, but the statement that now has been done is but cold satisfaction with no data to back it up. You said something about ignoring over $800 gold and comparing unlike fruits. Keep watch for a soon to follow post, you will find it interesting.

Let me proclaim now from the mountaintop! Hear me in every bazaar! Hush your restless whispers, be still in the pews, and behold: You are all right! Gold is very undervalued now. It is a great buy! It is even better than many of you realize! You will note that my argument to this point has been that gold has proven to be a very poor buy and hold investment. Gold has been a rubber dinghy with a hole in the bottom. The water leaks in faster than you can bail it out. The weight of all this gold can have you chest deep in a folded yellow boat with the water inexorably inching higher. You will drown holding more than what you consider absolutely necessary for times of disaster ( a very different amount for each person ) .

The key is to not buy gold and hold it. The key is to ( and some of you have probably smelled this coming ) buy gold and sell it!!! Buy low, sell high. Then, either sell short, or wait for a dip and buy it again. If you must own gold, use the profits from your trades to buy your gold. Use your gold to acquire gold. Most of all, don't forget the other metals

I have tried to make my points in a linear progression. Some of you have conceded a few of my points, others still doubt. OK. Let�s ( lets Waite? Let us? ) all agree on some numbers. Lets all speak from a common point of reference. Let us begin this debate in earnest. Yes I have only started. Look for my next post. By the way, my favorite movie is Twelve Angry Men.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 21:01
Richard Burke WOW!>(WOW!):

EMU: the tears are still pouring down my face. I have'nt read anything so funny in a long time. The Saints preserve us from new spelling!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:54
Byron @ The Closing:>(@ The Closing:):

Library is closing. Nite All!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:53
Earl Jr. @eldont>(@eldont):

IMHO: Bla bla bla bla bla

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:53
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca):

Jack: Both the Investment Reporter and the Investors Digest have been recommended to you on this site. They are two different publications obtainable from the same source. Both are Canadian. The Reporter has a selection of Key Stocks and recommends several for income purposes and several for growth purposes from the list each month depending on what should be moving. They include about 50 US stocks. They recently won a US award for picking stocks that gave the best return. The Digest is a biweekly ( I think ) compendium of brokerage house analyses and recommendations. I subscribe to both and find them useful. The Reporter recently had an article on gold stocks with a selected list and a discussion on when to buy - later they said. I can't recall the publisher's name right now, but could fax or e-mail it to you if you e-mail me your numbers. It doesn't show on my e-mail address, but there is an underline between richard and burke, i.e. richard_burke.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:51 PB somewhere out there>(somewhere out there):

RJ: I take it you don't believe in the sun ether?

Mike Sheller: I was quoting Gurudas who refers to Alice Bailey. Who is she? It says here that her book is Esoteric Astrology, but I'm sure I'm getting off topic.

PB

P.S.: I love all you guys. I've been lurking for over a year but RJ's comments brought me into the light. Somehow I couldn't resist.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:50 WW New England>(New England):

What does anyone think of the Dec. Silver $6.00 calls which expire in Nov. at $250.00 or less.?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:47
fifz gam @ salt lak sit>(@ salt lak sit):

Jaz vil vin in 6...

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:43
Byron @ At The Top (more or less)>(@ At The Top (more or less)):

Mr. Puetz: This centipede only has 9 legs! ( :* ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:40
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):

Mooney: I'll take any signals which come my way.:- )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:37
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Ted: me too! My friends and I laugh when we lose money! What else can you do.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:34
Steve Puetz @ Byron>(@ Byron):

Alan Abelson calls it the centipede bull market -- because it has so many legs.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:32
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.>(mhurst@ix.netcom.):

Gold and silver have been boring me today. I need excitement in my life. Ted, got your excellent epistle, have responded in kind. Jazz will whip Bulls in SLC tonight then will have to win one of two. I predict Jazz in 7. I further predict another boring day tomorrow in the metals.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:29
EMU @London>(@London):

This may be of interest of those of you who are debating the ECU

New EC Regulations
The European Commission have just announced an agreement whereby
English
will be the official language of the EU rather than German, which was
the
other possibility. As part of the negotiations, Her Majesty's
Government
conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has
accepted a 5 year phase-in plan that would be known as EuroEnglish:
In the first year, s will replace the soft c.. Sertainly, this will
make
the sivil sevants jump with joy. The hard c will be dropped in favor
of
the k. This should klear up konfusion and keyboards kan have 1 less
letter.

There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year, when the
troublesome ph will be replaced with the f. This will make words
like
fotograf 20% shorter.

In the third year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be
expekted to
reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.
Governments
will enkorage the removal of double letters, which have always ben a
deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horible mes of the silent e's in the
language
is disgraceful, and they should go away.

By the fourth yar, peopl wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing
th
with z and w with v. During ze fifz year, ze unesesary o kan be
dropd from vords kontaiining ou and similar changes vud of kors be
aplid
to ozer kombinations of leters.

After zis fifz yer, ve vil hav a reli sensibl riten styl. Zer vil be no
mor
trubls or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech
ozer.

ZE DREM VIL FINALI KUM TRU!!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:21
TED @thegoodlife>(@thegoodlife):

Mooney: Hasn't it cooled off enough to show houses NOW...Front: We made it past hump day and weekend is in sight...Tort: What's yer take on tonights action in Gold and in the windy city...GO JAZZ!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:20
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):

Maybe this is the calm before the storm. This paper bubble can't take much more, or can it?Who's got the needle ?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:15
philby Oregon>(Oregon):

Maybe this scenario doesn't make sense, but what if the central banks entered into a formal agreement to revalue all gold holdings to say $400 per ounze, and just admit the fact of long term monetary inflation? Also, since it seems the CB's want to get out of the gold holding business, to agree to a 50 year plan to liquidate holdings, say at 2% max sales per year. Would this help the euro dollar/emu situation to stay on schedule, increase gold sales income to CB's and also create a smooth transition to the gold markets with little damage to mining companies and investors. Periodically the value of gold could be adjusted to the true market value. Does this make sense, and what would happen to the value of gold in the market place if the CB's did this

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:15
TED @ewp>(@ewp):

EWP ( 20:07 ) I remember Chuck the human punching bag...but could he take a punch!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:14
Mooney @Byron!>(@Byron!):

Sorry Byron! Didn't mean to be talking topless at the same time as you're talking top of the market!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:11
Mooney @Front>(@Front):

I take it Mr. Front that you were not at all affronted by the Front page of today's Toronto Sun newspaper ( ? ) which featured two buxom topless young ladies suntanning down at the Beaches area of Toronto. SAY! Now I know why Selby goes for a walk there everyday he can! Ladies of the night? ( In Muskeg Territory? )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:09
Byron @ Hmmmmm:>(@ Hmmmmm:):

On the daily Dow Jones Industrial chart, it sure appears that the Dow is now putting in a 9th wave up from the April 14th bottom. : )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:09
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Glenn: oh well ... I only have a small % of my portfolio in mining stocks ( everything else is up ) . I guess I can't complain. I think I might buy more. The timing may be right to buy when everyone, including myself, is losing hope.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:07
EWP EWP>(EWP):

Glenn: I hope this gold trend ends soon. My mining shares are taking a pounding. I feel like Chuck Wepner ( if you know anything about heavyweight boxing ) .

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 20:01
Glenn Au>(Au):

Today was the deadest day I have seen so far in Gold. It was really boring. The trend in Gold is still down and the trend in stocks is still up. The intermediate trend at the very least shall chance, ( With Gold up and stocks down ) in a few more weeks, say at least 2 more but no more than 5 )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:56
Speed @home>(@home):

Glenn: Well done! Now then, what's next? Or, at least tell us some more about the trading pits.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:53
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com):

I know it's not right to bragg, and normally I do not, but since I was the only person anywhere calling for the DOW to hit 7500 before the end of June, ( Stated in April, about 100 full S&P points ago, here in Kitco ) allow me one I told you so.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:45
Byron @ Throwing Darts:>(@ Throwing Darts:):

RT: Re: XAU and TA - Please see http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:44
tradered traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com):

To read a sample issue of the Dines Letter, and excellent gold oriented newsletter in the internet, try www.dinesletter.com

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:42
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

TED:

Thanks for the concern. I took your advise and tried to take it easier however, I fell asleep while thinking about slowing down. My guess is that helped. My gut spoke to me today ... no logic at all ... just a hunch ... now full into metals.

Mooney:

Was it even too hot for the topless girls? Understand you're having the same problenms as we are with the ladies of the night advertising in a different, forthright, fashion ( or lack thereof! ) .

Toplessness! This is going to be great for the tourism business this summer, isn't it! Sweden of North America !

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:42
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):

Hey junior- you got my vote for this week!!!

June is June is June, there ain't nothin like June for a dead gold month.

Tally HO

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:35
Fundy Correction>(Correction):

Jack: Its call Investors Digest.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:24
junior TA of XAU>(TA of XAU):

Everything says that the XAU bottomed at the end of April. The correction was ~60 % which is a nice correction. Indicators all point to up. On the very short term we may be slightly high. The best part is that if we are going up it will be big . We will have several days of 2 and 3 points. Wave structures are inconclusive right here. More later

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:18
Fundy Leaving>(Leaving):

Jack: It isn't that hard to do. As a Canadian I trade the TSE mostly and the number of good companies is relatively as well as absolutely limited. Anyone with the wherewithall to connect up to Kitco can identify the 50-60 good companies in a day's work. There is a publication that will do it for your called the Investment Reporter I believe.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:12
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

REB: Gold and silver pay no interest because they are money. Only credit market instruments pay interest -- to compensate the holder for a variety of risks -- including, loss of purchasing power and risk of default. These are not risk associated with owning the precious metals.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:10
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

LAN MAN: 40% of the market value of all residential homes are loaned out. That include retired people who have paid off their mortgage. If you onlt include baby-boomers, it's probably more like 85% of the market value that is mortgaged. I got an add in the mail yesterday, a company in California said they would loan me 125% of the market value of my home!!!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:06
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

BW: Well said @ 9:04 a.m.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 19:05
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):

PANDA: Sounds like you're proposing we use the bigger-fool theory to push up the S&P futures. Leave me out! But do let me know when you all have bought.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 18:26
squinch al>(al):

...at least Greenspan has some good insights...now, iffin' he'd just make that leap away from paper...

http://www.economeister.com/curracct/970611ca/green_ma.htm

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 18:13
The Sultan of Credit And we sent our best men>(And we sent our best men):

We have successfully kept the lid on precious metal
prices over the past several years. Our hope was, that
by doing such; that eventually a huge gold strike would
occur, and allow us to prosper, with our credit scheme.

We sent our best and brightest to Indonesia, only to find
disappointment.

We are sure that some one is ploting against us.

Please god have mercy on our soul's, so we may spread our
paper promises to all men of good faith and feed our
greed.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 17:43 bw us real estate:>(us real estate:):

At least this is a real asset. The problem is it's nominal value has been vastly inflated by our ongoing credit bubble. Should the price of your 200,000 dollar house ( which was worth 25,000 fourty years ago ) fall to say 50,000 you may be little affected. However if you have a 150,000 loan and must sell you will be hurt big time. What might cause such a drop in nominal value? Ten percent or more of the residential housing in this country is unoccupied at any time. Some people own more than one home which they do not rent. When times get hard this will end. Suppose you have a large house, say 3000 sq feet. Your neighbor has the same. You both get layed off for what looks like a very long time. Want to cut your housing expenses by 50%? Just sell one house and you both have 1500 sq feet to live in ( three chinese families could live comfortably here ) and split all the expenses of one house. Hey, it might even be fun depending on your neighbor. Never happen you say. Not today, but times change. In terms of square feet we are the most over housed people in the history of the world. Its my feeling when the crunch comes you will be able to buy your dream house for a few thousand ounces of silver. Yes this does require a indeterminate wait.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 17:27
Richard Burke Whereto XAU>(Whereto XAU):

Two necessary conditions for the break-out of the XAU have not occured yet - a major volume day for ABX ( 2,000,000 or more, preferably 3,000,000 or more ) ; and the difference between spot gold and the xau getting up over 250 ( see Kaplan ) . For the latter to happen gold is going to have to lead the xau up, and this is usually not the case, or the xau is going to drop to about 90 first if gold continues its basing at current levels. I know some of you feel that gold will in fact lead the xau this time and that a number of you are reading a basing movement which could result in a break-out. I know that George Cole is not expecting a break-out until later in the summer. Any comments?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 17:19
George S. Cole gold rally>(gold rally):

I was premature in my gold stock comments. Most of the stocks I follow went up, but both Fidelity gold funds were down. Today's rally was much narrower than I thought. APH is correct -- XAU, HUI, and FSAGX must move up together if a rally is to have a chance of sustaining itself.

MOONEY: Perhaps it will be different this time with bullion leading the stocks. But my bet still is that the stocks will lead.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:58
Jack Fundy>(Fundy):

Fundy: Seem's to be the impression that stocks ( of the
non Precious Metal variety ) do nothing but go up. I
believe that with some 30,000+ listed securities
out�there, the ability to pick the right one ( s ) becomes
limited. As for the 4000 Mutual Funds, their
advertisements do not attract; as they have to pick
from the 30,000+ listed securities. This is not to
conclude that it is impossible to find -then buy- a good
stock, it's just difficult. In sum, they go up and down;
just like their gold stock cousins.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:57
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Mooney @16:29: Loved that quote. A lot. I have committed it to memory and will slip it back in here ( without attribution ) in few a months after everyone else has forgotten. ........ ( :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:53
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE):

Novice: Sent ya an e-mail this mornin but made the mistake of sending it to the office...Does anyone out there work....At least Mooney drove around for a while and faked it...Front: What a beautiful day on the ocean and your river must be great on such a hot day!...but please slow down a bit and smell the roses...

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:39
TED @mooney>(@mooney):

Mooney: Good excuse....hahaha ...it's too hot...hahaha..

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:29
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):

Very few things happen at the right time, and the rest do not happen at all; the conscientious historian will correct these defects. -- Herodotus

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:25
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):

Ted of Scaterie - I'm Back! Yea, I know, tough life Mooney with those long hours, but it's 93 degrees in the shade in T.O., all of a sudden, and that kinda slows down the average person's metabolism to the point that they say, forget it, we'll look at houses another day, it is just too darn hot to think straight!
Ted of Gold Loan fame. - Another excellent thought provoking post at 15:22. Certain grains of truth there.
George ( of 'kingly' fame ) - Considering that we generally do take past occurrences and project that they will repeat themselves, ( with slight variations ) in the future, your theory is sound. However, the unexpected also happens quite frequently and perhaps Mr. Butler's ruminations may prove correct in this case. Time will tell, but certainly, if the Platinum storey repeats in Gold and Silver the physicals will, in this instance, lead the stocks.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:24
APH '''''''''''''''''''''''''''>('''''''''''''''''''''''''''):

YellowDog - I would like to see the XAU close above 105 with Fidelity Select Gold ( FSAGX ) up at least .30 at the same time. Today for example XAU was up 150+ points while FSAGX was up a couple points and down .02 at 3 pm. This tells me the XAU isn't going to break out now. At best its sideways to down.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:17
TED @ocean>(@ocean):

Tort: Just read yer e-mail...when do ya want me ta make the hit...and how will I know if it's the right broker?...They all look the same...Will try and get somethin off after diner which I am now makin...On the menu: Greek Cauliflower and Bulghur Pilav...HI FRONT!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:09
Blonde @Platinum>(@Platinum):

D.A. Thank you for the caution re Phoenix Gold. Your posts today have been helpful as well. Do you see an imbalance between supply and demand of PGM's in the intermediate term? ( say 1-2 years ) . I'm confused as to why the US mint would choose this time to issue platinum coins if there is an impending supply problem with such an important metal.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 16:09
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

Back from the woods and see I missed alot...Comex Gold+Silver @ UNCH but Platinum+Palladium resumed upward thrust as did the trusty old DOW..up 36.56 ...XAU up 1.23...How many people have missed the entire 13 year Bull market by thinking the sky is goin ta fall?...Some day YOU will be right!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 15:39
George s. Cole XAU>(XAU):

GERY: You are correct; gold stocks did lead bullion up in 1993. I suspect the same thing will happen this year. Still yoo early to tell if today's upward thrust will be sustained though.

Just to point out how cheap gold stocks are today versus the overall market. The XAU would have to climb to 140 to establish the same relationship to the Dow Industrials as prevailed at the BEGINNING of the 1993 gold bull. It would have to approach 300 to establish the relationship that prevailed at the END of the 1993 bull ( assuming the Dow remains at 7500 ) .

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 15:22
ted butler @ the markets>(@ the markets):

D.A.

Your zinc post was appreciated, as are all you posts. As you know I feel strongly about the precious metal loans, and I hope you didn't think I was implying that they were the driving factor in all other markets. As far as I know they are peculiar to the PMs. You did raise a point that I've contemplated for years, namely the observation that nowadays a commodity seems to scrape bottom price wise until inventory levels become so critical that the price goes perpendicular. While it very well may be for the reasons you suggest, I'd like you to consider another. That is, that because the price is set in the paper areana, on and off exchange, in the great struggle between the dealers and the large spec funds, the price is no longer discovered in the usual sense, i.e., following developments in the real cash market. What I'm suggesting is that the price is set first, then supply and demand adjust to it. This would explain how inventories of a commodity like zinc could decline over a long period of time with no impact on price, because any individual zinc producer or consumer would have marginal impact on price if a huge paper battle was being waged that resulted in a certain price level.

Let's look at a more personal example, silver. As you indicted about a week ago, along with RJ, bw and others ( me included in spirit, if not word ) a sharp rise could come as the battle was joined between the spec funds and the dealers, and there were all sorts of option expirations and positions taken and key technical trigger points. While it doesn't look like there will be any fireworks before friday ( and it breaks my heart ) , it was clear to all that the outcome was certainly not going to be over any changes in silver fundamentals. Hell, you know they're as bullish as can be. It had to with which warring group was going to get the upper hand. Unfortunately, the group I bet on didn't win. Too bad. But my point is this condition, which you know of in more detail than I do, while short term in this example, is symptomatic of all the markets and can result in long term cash market distortions if the paper battle is long term in nature. In other words, if the dealer community continuously floods a market with paper contracts to thwart the specs and succeeds in driving the price down over a long period of time, as production and consumption adjust, inventories will decline to eventually the critical level, and then we explode in price. You are right that this is not the way we learned economics.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 15:15 RT @weekly XAU w/lots of goodies>(@weekly XAU w/lots of goodies):

Much to chew on; anyone TA person want to study and post a stab at where we might be going? ( click on icon ) :

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:58
yellowdog @APH>(@APH):

APH: if you're lurking out there somewhere, please repost the XAU level that would change your mind about it going down to the mid 90's. I was looking at several charts last night, and , I am convinced it wont go down much further from this point, but , then again, it doesn't always behave like I particularly want it to.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:57
Fundy Uping Anchor>(Uping Anchor):

Speed: 1. Trading gold is a full time activity and not an investment except maybe a one day investment. If you can do it do it.
2. The current correctionless stock market is no more an anomoly than the $850 gold and I agree it won''t continue for ever.
3. The average Joe couldn't come up with the $20.67 for a lot of gold either.
4. Don't understand your use of the term new paradign. I have only lost money in bullion and oil. Doing well currently in banks, communications, oil, and pipelines.

5. I'm fully invested since 1991 so I'm up about 350% in non precious metals and still waiting for the calamity to move the bullion and
mining shares. Move them up.

Leaving Fundy with the Tide as it happens. Talk to you latter.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:51
panda @reverse.alchemy!>(@reverse.alchemy!):

REB, Speed -- What a concept, turning gold in to paper!!! :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:43
REB na>(na):

Re gold leasing: One of the knocks re gold is that it pays no interest. Isn't gold leasing a means of letting it do that? If someone likes gold as a store of value, but also wants to collect interest and not keep it around the house, it could be lent to someone else to be repaid later with interest. Obviously this means credit risk is assumed, but that's a reasonable business decision.

I suppose the difference between gold debt and dollar debt is that the fed can't print gold to fulfill its role of lender of last resort as it can with the dollar.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:41
Speed @lunch>(@lunch):

Fundy: 1. Gold has had some good moves since 1981. In 1993 for instance, gold and gold shares staged a nice up move. If you were astute enough to buy in late 1995 and get out in about May of 1996, you made some money. Call it trading vs. investing, but it's still profit.
2. Stocks have been on a tear for 6 years which is an anomaly, historically. There should have been at least one 20% correction somewhere in there and several 10% corrections. They haven't happened. Will this new paradigm continue? I don't think so.
3. Gold at 20.67 for 100 years was a good investment because during most of that time, prices went down ( deflation ) increasing the purchasing power of the gold. The point is moot, because Joe average citizen couldn't invest in stocks for most of that time anyway. He was ducking arrows, investing in 40 acres and a mule, etc.
4. I invest in more than bullion and mining shares. I've made and lost money on semiconductor stocks, energy services, a growing P&C Insurance company to name a few. I'm in gold primarily because I believe the new paradigm is bunch of bologna ( baloney ) .
5. The next 5 years will be very different from the last twenty and I'll bet that gold looks very good, while you take the paper side. Time will tell which of us made the right call.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 14:32
panda @>(@):

Ron Weidner -- If my currency were the rubble, er, I mean Ruble, and I were confused with the new $100 bills ( wait till tomorrows introduction of the new Fifty Dollar bills! ) versus the old $100 bills... I think I would want some gold if I could afford it! It seems the mainstay of the 'store of value' in Russia is the U.S. Dollar, specifically the $100 bills. Of course the 'new' bills are counterfeit resistant! :- ) ) It is, none the less, another curious story.... Somehow I don't think the Russian government would be doing this for 'the good of the citizens' though.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:59
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

D.A.: Your zinc market illustration with elaboration was much appreciated. What appears to be a contradiction on the surface, makes more sense when someone explains it.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:52
Ron Weidner raweidner@space.honeywell.com>(raweidner@space.honeywell.com):

Panda Sorry, it was in a SI response, and I didn't think most people could access. Also sorry I missed yours. RW

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:44
Fundy Tide>(Tide):

Speed: Mike Sheller has made a valid point but not related to the one that got me into this discussion. Certainly gold functioned very well against a rare event when it was worth $850 for a short time. It has not been a good investment since that time. If there is another similiar event it will be a good investment again. If you only read what is posted here you would think the financial calamity is going to happen this afternoon. The rest of the world are fools, storing paper and investing in mutual funds or buying stocks making 20-30% annually for years now. What morons. Paper is absurd, the world is running out of silver, IT can't last. One day this will all be true for a couple days.

Will you recognize it? Will you be alive when it happens? These IMO are the contrasting questions. Trying to defend why one would park money in a 20-20% paper investment as opposed to waiting for a calamity with money in a wasting investment is absurd. Prior to 1935 it was worth $20.67 for a hundred years. Not too good an investment for a century. That too is a part of history.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:43
panda @>(@):

Ron Weidner -- see my 13:11.

In the FWIW column, I must climb upon my high horse now. Folks, let us remember that there are copyright laws. URLs are more appropo. No offense Ron, but some folks are posting realllly long articles here. A URL is more than sufficient, IMHO. Personal attacks upon me may now commence! Dismounting my high horse now. :- )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:40
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox):

George s. Cole: Gold stocks up. If I remember right gold stocks went up BEFORE the big gold-rally in 1993 started.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:38
Byron @ Waiting for 106:>(@ Waiting for 106:):

What will it take to get the XAU through the 106+ area? Friday's expirations

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:35
Ron Weidner raweidner@space.honeywell.com>(raweidner@space.honeywell.com):

Have you all seem this?
Russian banks soon able to buy gold bars - Nemtsov

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia, June 11 ( Reuter ) - The Russian government is working on plans to allow commercial banks with the correct licences to buy gold bars, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov said on Wednesday.
He said the document relating to this issue would be signed in the the next few days. Nemtsov was speaking during a whirlwind trip to Russia's Far East, where a long-running energy crisis continues.

``This measure alone would be enough to help the gold mining industry out of a crisis,'' he said.

Nemtsov said Russia produced 113 tonnes of gold in 1996, and that output this year was expected to fall by several tonnes.

Gold output estimates in Russia vary widely. The head of the central bank's precious metals department, Sergei Kyshtymov, said last week that production in 1997 was likely to be no more than 100 tonnes, down 11 to 12 percent from 1996 levels.

Anatoly Chubais, Russia's other First Deputy Prime Minister, was quoted by Itar-Tass news agency on Tuesday as saying a presidential decree allowing the liberalisation of the gold market would be signed soon.

Plans to liberalise the heavily-centralised gold market were first announced by Chubais in April, and are expected to include a greater role for commercial banks in gold financing, purchasing and even exporting.

Proposals also include allowing individuals to buy gold directly from producers.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:28
George s. Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks):

Gold stocks up across the board today; not just XAU. Volume decent, but not huge. Encouraging action. If the gold sector begins a big run this month ( fifty-fifty chance now in my opinion ) , look for the overall market to peak in July.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:20 bw free trade:>(free trade:):

Good article on the politics of free trade on page a24 of todays wsj. The prices we are paying for goods produced by chineese political prisioners, children and other semi slave labor ( yes this may be but a component of the labor content of the incoming goods ) may seem cheap now but the long term cost may be more than we can afford. Free trade only works for a country if the people who lose their jobs to foreign competition can find other jobs equal to or better than the one lost. Its a sham to throw millions off welfare while at the same time shipping the jobs they could take to mexico and china. No doubt most in this country feel free trade benifits them, I did too at one time. When we enter the next economic down period the true cost of free trade may reveal itself.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 13:11
panda @>(@):

Is there a message here?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_44.html

and what about this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0004_y00_7.html

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:47
D.A. re.loans>(re.loans):

Ted Butler:

Another market whose activity is exemplary of one where a large overhang is in the process of being drawn down is Zinc. If you look at a chart of LME stocks with respect to price you can see that the inventory drawdown had to go on for a very long while before the price began to move higher. Since I do not believe there is a large market in zinc loans this would seem to be an example where large drawdowns in inventory can occur without effect price. My guess is supply, demand and prices curves do not exhibit those nice monotonically increasing or decreasing functions as graphed in ones basic econ textbook. My guess is that if existing stockpiles are greater than some basic threshold level with respect to consumption, drawdowns in inventory may be accomplished coincidentally with declining price. This is probably largely a function of emotion in the sense that inventory holders see the value of their inventory declining and take steps to liquidate some of their holdings so as not to incur further losses. This process may feed back positively upon itself causing even greater price declines and more liquidation. Because the activities are taking place in commercial enterprises, the action is very slow, and can be drawn out over many, many moons. An outside observer may see the process taken to what are apparently absurd extremes. It takes someone from outside the commercial realm, the speculator, to transmit the changing fundamentals into price action, by bidding for a material amount of supply. At this point the price may rise very sharply. After the price has gone way up the commercial players then can understand what has happened, so they're habits change. As WW stated the news follows price. Nine months ago you could not find a single story about a potential supply problem in the PGM's. Now Panda pulls a few off the news wire every morning. All this even though there have been no material changes to the amount of new production or the amount of consumption.

As a side note, with the markets being so thin and spreads being so wide there are some amazing trades that are popping up. I'm trying to get some long dated hedges done now and hope to have more to report soon.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:34
ted butler semantics>(semantics):

Earl,

You asked the right question re: cash settlements. Default is the most obscene financial word of all. You will never, ever hear it mentioned except as in, there was no default, or there will be no default, or we know of no defaults. What you will hear instead is the delivery period was extended, there are no dealings in the lease market because of those damn Russians, and it has been decided that all contracts will now be settled in cash until the markets stabalize, or contract specifications have been adjusted. Are we all on the same page now?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:14 bw Re: gold leases>(Re: gold leases):

Ted Butler: Thanks for your work exposing this hustle. Having the details of this scam sure makes me feel better. In my opinion the complex gold lease mechanism was put in place not by accident or the market but by the same lovely people who have given us the worthless dollar and a financial system filled with worthless ious. After the run up of gold in the 1970's a plan had to be devised to prevent its reoccurrance. Once more our taxes have provided the resources used by those running the largest con game in the history of the world, to harm us.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 12:08
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at):

REB: ( Trading range of gold ) . I believe we are pretty close to an outbreak. Today situation reminds me to early 1993 just before gold started this 25% bull-run ( hedge funds jumped to the long-side ) . The charts seem very clear: triangle, positive divergences in almost every indicator. It shouldn't take another two weeks. It's possible that the outbreak goes down ( under 339 ) but unlikely, I guess 80:20.
Regards

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:55
D.A. re.defaults>(re.defaults):

Earl:

In the case of the OTC metals markets there is no regulatory body to impose its will upon those with positions. There are individual contracts drawn up between the clearing houses and the buyers and the sellers. These contracts usually contain some clause with respect to defaulting but I don't know if there is any standard. I don't believe that there will be defaults in the PGM markets. There is after all a lot of metal being produced and there must be a clearing price. If Pa rises above the gold price for example, a great deal of the dental demand will dry up. If Pa were to get very high relative to Pl, I assume we would see some substitution in the auto industry. You may say well, how high would Pl have to go to get substitution? I don't know, but at some price the Japanese jewelry business would shut down. There is always a number at which people will sell. It may be a very big number, but a number none the less.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:36
SimpleMan faraway.com>(faraway.com):

Big Trader is right again. Chaos in London on delivery day!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:36
REB na>(na):

To Glenn, RJ, other traders: Any thoughts on what is keeping gold in such a narrow range?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:18
ted butler again leases>(again leases):

D.A.

Regarding your question on the size of the silver lease market. Boy, I wish I knew. My sense is that it is huge, based upon the published statistics and ancedotal evidence. As you have pointed out many times in the past, we are running a tremendous deficit in silver to the tune of hundreds of millions of ounces over many years. I look hard but I can't see this coming from voluntary inventory liquidation. The public may not be big buyers of silver or other metals, as metals, but I see zero evidence of net sales. Changes in inventory management can't account for it either. So I ask, where is the supply coming from to satisfy such staggering shortfalls with no change in price. If we are agreed it's happening in gold, it is reasonable to think it is happening in silver. Until two months or so ago I didn't know there even was a lease market in Pt and Pa. The point being these are not transactions done in the sunshine. Admittedly I am forced to infer some of these conclusions as far as size, but at least not to the actual existence of the market. In fact, I thought it quite interesting that the Treasury, in its brush-off response to my letter, acknowledged the existence of silver loans. And Bart lists the rate daily.

Last week I read a report that someone bought 50MM oz of silver from a lease transaction, and this weeks Barron's has a letter to the editor talking about a 50MM oz lease transaction in 1995. I guess if the facts and numbers were beyond question we wouldn't have much to talk about, or analysis or markets in general, I thought the amounts were not significant at first, but I don't think so anymore. And there's no way some CB is ever going to raise their hand and say, Hey, we just got screwed and lost our metal to the city slickers, at least not the guys who actually made the loans.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:04
Don dprys@alliance.net>(dprys@alliance.net):

Cherokee: Could you please send me the source of a quote you posted some time ago which ended lemmings all, lemmings all. Thanks

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:58
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

Ted Butler: I recall some talk of cash settlement in other markets. SP 500 .... Is it possible for metal markets in delivery stress to declare some form of cash settlement? I realize that does not help fabricators out of their physical need but it should be apparent to all that end users are no longer a major source of concern in metal markets. The focus of concern seems to have been captured by speculators who stand to lose bigtime.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:54
Tortfeasor Message for Crystal>(Message for Crystal):

Crystal Ball, your message unfortunately rings true in my case and I was in front of that broker in the line to get on the bus. Looks like silver is showing signs its tired of sleepwalking and wants to get back in bed.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:47
D.A. loan.leverage>(loan.leverage):

Ted Butler:

Your musings about the outstanding metal loans are appreciated. There is no doubt that in the event of a real shortage ( like when the cupboard is bare ) that these shorts would add a great deal of fuel to the fire. While I have seen estimates of the amount of gold out on loan I have never seen anyone take a stab at silver. In your investigations have you ever come across a number?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:46
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):

bw @9:04: History is on your side.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:34
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):

Checked out the cap, yet? Funny thing is ... brokers so far,
are probably the biggest customer group for the caps.

And, no, we do not carry coins/salt shakers. Just caps and T-shirts.

http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:08
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

Panda:

In the winter time we bring the brass monkey indoors.

TTFN

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 10:00
panda @random.thoughts>(@random.thoughts):

Ted Butler -- As part of the gold confiscation during the thirties, weren't gold loans also made illegal? In other words, loans were to be repaid in cash, not gold coinage. My question is, aren't these metal loans in effect 'gold' loans? If so, aren't they illegal? If they settle in cash, then the loaning of the metal is a fiction, no? If they settle in 'bullion', then they are illegal, per FDRs executive orders. None the less, I agree whole heartedly, that there is one hell of a problem looming! PA/PL are only harbingers of what may be coming in the near future.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:52
Lan Man Leveraged to the Max>(Leveraged to the Max):

Steve Puetz: re Real Estate prices - In theory I agree with Davidson/Mogg that R.E. prices will be heading down, although not to the extreme of 10c on the dollar. In talking to my friends and associates, the vast majority are leveraged to the hilt, having paid less than 10% down ( most around 5% ) and are living on their credit cards to meet everyday expenses. Several have told me directly that if things get much worse, they will default on the loans, max out the credit cards and declare the big B.

Being debt free at this time, am waiting patiently for the debt pyramid to topple over where I can then scoop up the bargains of a lifetime. Living in So. Calif. where housing prices are still overpriced by at least 50%, it will probably take some time before housing is again fair valued.

Just yesterday heard on the radio of an outfit offering loans on your property with NO equity needed! They state that they will loan up to 100% of the value of your house. Anybody got a lite? ( match or Bic lighter will do just fine ) .

Pass on my thanks to your wife for responding so quickly to the e-mail regarding the order of your book...

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:49
ted butler lease thoughts>(lease thoughts):

Vieserre:

Thank you for your important contribution ( 23:11 ) to the leasing debate. I agree with you that the past and current benefits to the participants ( CB's, dealers, mining cos, users and speculators ) has been great - that's why they have grown to such significance in the market. Where we obviously disagree is in what adverse effect these leases have had/will have on the metal markets. I think the questions of who is being deceived and who is assuming the real risk in these transactions will be answered in time, although I did find it curious that not once in your posting did you mention the central banks, who along with other government lenders, are the prime real lenders of the metal, not the dealers. It would be a pretty boring debate if it were limited to who might be the bagholder ( s ) , and the choice was limited to dealers, CB's and/or mining cos.

I don't think it productive to answer your disagreement point by point ( although if you want I will ) , but allow me to observe my main problems with these metal loans;

1.Every time a loan is originated, physical metal is released. This is no bookeeping entry - actual metal goes to market. This has to influence price and the real supply/demand equation.

2.There has never been a net repayment of metal loans in their 15 year existence. While individual loans may have been paid back from time time ( maybe ) , the total outstanding amount of metal loans has only grown ( along with growing amounts of metal being dumped on the market ) . This means that we have never had to experience what it's like to observe market conditions when metal loans are repaid, and metal is taken from the market. I do think we started to see this in PL/PA when prices exploded and lease rates ( which were 1-2% for years ) jumped as high as 300%. A reasonable person would see or sense a connection. What is more interesting were reports that the the lease market just shut down and cash transactions were automatically extended.

3.The real problem with these loans is that they are the only class of loan, in existence, that are denominated in something other than currency or paper securities. Think about that for a moment. No other type of loan in the world calls for settlement in something which is finite in its existence. All other types of loans call for repayment in some type of paper which in an emergency, or run on the bank, can be created out of thin air. But you can't do that in the metals. In fact, because of the supply demand deficit in each of the precious metals, the supply is not even finite, it is shrinking, by definition. And against this shrinking supply base, we have growing repayment obligations. This is why the lease market in Pa ( and probably Pt ) shut down at the first sign of repayment demands. And why it has to happen in gold and silver. The only question being when. It is impossible for these metal loans to be repaid as called for.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:40
panda @summertime!>(@summertime!):

Front -- I heard that story in the news last night. What do you folks do in the winter time? :- ) )

SA coal/gold mines start wage negotiations on Friday with the unions. The unions are reported to be looking for a twenty percent increase. Inflation running at %9+. More at;

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_13.html

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:33
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

All:

I might as well be the first to post it here....

ONTARIO has had a court ruling that it's legal for women to go topless outdoors anywhere in public. Some women in Toronto and Ottawa have already made the news and it hit CNBC last night. ( boy was Sue embarrased! ) Anyways, it's legal. The only problem I have is that the girl who showed up on TV last night while washing windows topless, had a spiked dog collar around her neck. Geez, I think I'd be looking out more for that than anything else! That could hurt !!!!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:31
CrystalBall StockMarket_Puts@EatingDust>(StockMarket_Puts@EatingDust):

Tort- This one's for you...
In a long line of people waiting for a bank teller, one guy suddenly started massaging the back of the person in front of him. Surprised, the man in front turned and snarled, Just what the hell you are doing?
Well, said the guy, you see, I'm a chiropractor and I could see that you were tense, so I had to massage your back. Sometimes I just can't help practicing my art!
That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard! the guy replied. Look, I'm a broker. Am I f&$#*ing the guy in front of me?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:26
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):

RJ:

Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go?

Correct me if I'm wrong please, but I believe you're saying that the power of $327 adjusted at 4% inflation from 1977 would now be $716. In other words, the price for an item in 1977 being $327 that same item should now cost $716. I think I've got that right and agree.

If that follows, logic would say that if that item was gold ( oz. ) , then gold did not keep it's value since it should now be at $716 if it kept up with inflation over the years. If gold had moved in a straight line like inflation did, I would have to agree.

Perhaps we might back up just a second. Did not Gold a one point in time go over $800? Perhaps that was all the catch-up in one swoop? Obviously, if we had sold when it was at it's top, your argument would have folded rather quickly as we would have achieved a 10.5% increase in value even over inflated price levels. I agree that that was one day only, however it did happen and cannot be ignored by averaging. So if we missed that cycle, perhaps for the next cycle, we will be better positioned to sell to our advantage and catch-up again, all in one swoop?

Gold has moved in much larger cycle swoops than the dollar over the same time period.

You see my problem? You've taken the average of a very large cyclical moving target and compared it to a very steady definitive inflation movement. If you want your argument to be justified then you , IMHO, must compare apples to apples. If you want your arguments to stand the tests, then take the average of the moving target of inflation on the dollar as well. That would make it $521.50.

Nothing personal, I assure you. You did ask for someone to refute your numbers and I believe that now has been done. I also think you have compared apples and oranges, to your arguments advantage.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:24
Roebear @backfromwaterworld>(@backfromwaterworld):

Just catching up on the news Kitco after some boating with family ( Ted and Front inspired me to hit the water again ) . Excellent contributions. Vieserre, Earl, Ted Butler I'm trying to understand leasing/forward sales do any of you have any books, resources you could recommend? Mike Sheller, loved that segmentation of time idea; we must keep exploring, where no Goldbug has gone before!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:24
George S. Cole market makers>(market makers):

From the World Gold Council. Comments?

In the London bullion market, Phibro has followed the recent example of
Lehman Brothers by withdrawing from market making, although the
former apparently intends to remain active in bullion. This reduces the
number of market makers in London to twelve. Finally, on June 4, Peter
Fava of Midland Bank was elected chairman of the London Bullion
Market Association, succeeding Alan Baker of Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:04 bw us currency:>(us currency:):

This piece of paper is a strange creature. Once a receipt for something of value ( gold and silver ) it now is neither receipt nor debt. A worthless scrap of paper that others will ( for now ) accept and pay value for. The us treasury says there is about 500 billion worth here in the usa and less than one trillion world-wide. This world-wide figure is surely vastly understated. I have seen estimates of up to six and a half trillion. The us dollar is printed here and also at least in iran. Once a stable form we seem to be getting a new dollar every other year. Yet another change is coming as the onshore/offshore dollars. We have a real problem with the offshore printing presses.They may even provide the crisis which requires electronic cash as its solution. With the dollar you can be sure of only one thing. The dollar's value will one day equal that of all ( not a single exception and there have been thousands ) other currencies which have been stripped of their backing. Zero.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 09:03
panda @Dollars.Yen.?>(@Dollars.Yen.?):

Cry havoc and loose the dogs of currency war!

http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970611/business/stories/dollar_18.html

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:54
News @>(@):

True story: Disabled Barbie can't fit into her $100
Doll House! What next? Lawyer Barbie to sue Matel?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:48
Roebear @refugeetales>(@refugeetales):

arden and all: re arden 23:12 post, after the fall of Vietnam I knew certain folks who were present when the Vietnamese refugees were kept at military installations etc. awaiting US sponsors. Some of these folks were carrying so much gold sewn into their clothes/baggage they could barely walk. The US gov't was happy to exchange our dollars for their gold. A bank brought in a mobile branch, armored car etc. The highest amount of gold turned in was $180,000 ( and this was at 1975-76 prices! ) . I do not know if they were allowed to keep any gold or if they did. I do not believe the fact of this refugee gold was ever published but was young at the time and may have missed it. All of the refugees that I ever met were industrious, decent folks who took to US economy like fish to water, many are now prosperous in business. I wonder if any are now goldbugs?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:42
Speed leaving for work>(leaving for work):

Mike Sheller: Well said. I was trying to formulate something along the lines of time segments for both RJ and Fundy, but will now wait for responses to your post.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:42
EMU Salting Crew North Pole>(North Pole):

Kohl's governing coalition fracturing. May not last
out the year. Watch Germany

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:35
Mike Sheller Meta Musings>(Meta Musings):

RJ: In a more serious vein, there is a phenomenon I would like to call segmentation of time which might prove a fruitful way to view markets and human action. So, for instance, there are indeed some general things one can say about gold, or stocks, or bonds, etc, that apply quite nicely within certain segments of time. From 1972 to 1980, certain old saws concerning gold could have been repeated with little refutation. However, those obsessed with such stereotypes in the early 70's did far better as gold investors than those latecomers who mouthed such platitudes only in 1980. By the same token, since '82 those who believed the stock market could only rise, and that shares returned 10% and more like the rising Sun, did quite nicely. Those who have just now caught on to this old saw might be in for a surprise if and when a new time segment paradigm emerges. The correction in gold since '80 bears out your arguments for this time segment. No question. Even the most diehard gold aficionado must acknowledge there is a time and a price for everything, including gold. I think what we must glean from all this is that perhaps, just perhaps, we are at a juncture where a new time segment and paradigm shift in the investment world may be emerging. I realize that sometimes those who are noty sufficiently detached can argue that NOW is ALWAYS the moment that things will turn. This is human nature. Discounting that, however, it would not be surprising to conclude that the marvelous stockmarket spectacle we have been witnessing has given many gold accolytes support for the thought that a significant asset inversion, or re-evaluation, may be close at hand. One could not blame them, looking at a chart of the Dow. It has been my observation that these things unfold over a number of years, and since we are talking about a theoretical approaching time segment that itself could last a decade or two, we must endure the slow-motion gathering of forces that will exteriorize the as yet internalized future seen by the more prescient among the goldbugs and prophets of doom. I myself, while open to the most outrageous possible scenarios, realize that life usually goes on in spite of our occasional misteps and blunders. I hope only for prosperity, peace, and joy. But I look over my shoulder when I hear ( in ) human cannonballs rolling by.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:31
TED @bye>(@bye):

Mooney: Get a life...and yer late fer work....again!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:29
TED @chainsawin>(@chainsawin):

Tort: It ain't here yet as Iez in a mad rush fer the woods fer me last day of chainsawin before the blackflies go BESERK...Warm weather finally here ( 67 F and climbing ) and those vicious little bastards are just learnin how ta bite...Panda: HAHAHA....Kill one of those Harvard-yard air-heads fer me....

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:27
panda @>(@):

I know how to 'save' gold ( from itself, that is! ) ! Everybody buy the S&P500 until it goes to infinity ( or pretty close to it ) , then gold will be so cheap, everybody will just have to buy it. They'll buy it, if for no other reason, to put in their dessert! :- ) )

I can see it now, I'd like a chocolate ice cream cone with gold jimmies please. Think of the possibilites! And what if we used platinum jimmies instead of gold jimmies!!! Think of it! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 08:18
Mooney @Ted>(@Ted):

Morning Ted! Going to Work Now, Ted! C U L8R

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:59
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):

RJ - Your repeated comments of the last few days that Gold has been a lousy investment for the last twenty years, ( EG. - Your 00:13 ...Average price of gold for the last 20 years: $327. Purchasing power of $327 ( 1977 dollars adjusted at 4% per anum ) : $716. Where did the other $389 go...? ) , seems to me to be just backing up what many here are saying, and that is that Gold is at the bottom of a cycle right now and is UNDERVALUED at the present time. That's what you're saying in a nutshell if you really think about it.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:42
panda @Hot?>(@Hot?):

TED -- You can have the heat! One warm evening ( ~68 F ) and people are already driving like idiots! Somehow there is a germ of an idea here. If I could only 'infect' the gold market with such madness. Perhaps a heatwave in the metals markets Hmmmm, I'll have to think about that one...

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:30
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):

From the looks of the gold market and options which decrease in value every day if there is not movement that a joke is in order. Morning, Ted, something just dropped in your fishpond.

A man and his date walk into a very posh Rodeo Drive furrier after
having eaten a very expensive lunch at one of Beverly Hills most
exclusive restaurants.

Show the lady your finest mink! the fellow exclaims.

So the owner of the shop goes in back and comes out with an absolutely
gorgeous full-length coat. As the lady tries it on, the furrier sidles up to
the guy and discreetly whispers, Ah, sir, that particular fur goes for
$65,000.

No problem! I'll write you a check!

Very good, sir. says the shop owner. Today is Saturday. You may
come by on Monday to pick it up, after the check has cleared the bank.

So the man and the woman leave. On Monday, the fellow returns. The
store owner is outraged: How dare you show your face in here?! There
wasn't a single penny in your checking account!!

I just had to come by, grinned the guy,

to thank you for the most wonderful weekend of my life!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:23
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

Panda ( 6:50 ) Sounds like more Russian incompetance....Looks like ya got a heat wave in Beantown...send it up this way!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:22
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold):

August gold down 60 cents despite drop in dollar/yen. Looks like things will get a little darker before the dawn.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:10
Reify @my 2 cents>(@my 2 cents):

RJ- Been reading your replies to a lot of various questions, and comments addressed to you, and would like to make the following point.

Most of us, I believe, see gold not as a trading vehicle, but an investment for, and in the future, one that could survive possible calamities, in the stock markets, which appear to be substantially over-valued.

There are other possiblities, but gold and precious metals seem, at this time in history, to be undervalued and from a chartist standpoint being accumulated. Quoting- Accumulation of paper today to trade for the commodities of the day and the invest for
the future is the wisest way to protect oneself. Hope you don't feel this was taken out of context, as it was only a part of what you said. However what would you recommend as a better long range future investment at this time, than precious metals, in various forms of investment?

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:10
Political Question @>(@):

Have the Republicans painted themselves into a
corner again over this disaster relief bill? Looks
like another big win for Clinton. ( Ignore that
obnoxious shouter )

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 07:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):

RJ -- Your argument that the last twenty years has been pretty dismal for investing in gold is pretty good. The numbers show that. No problem. On the other hand, one can look at it as no more than buying insurance. Hey, maybe the CBs etc. can hold down the price of gold for the rest of the year. Then again, maybe a bit of 'paper' can't get unwound fast enough. My statement that I do not trust you simply means that you might have me, or others, shorting the metal just when things 'get interesting'. Sorry, but these are interesting times and the next twenty years are not going to look like the last twenty years. It could also be that the next two months could be interesting. Time will tell. As for name calling, that's what the government and their media lackeys do. I certainly wouldn't like one of those labels doesn't get attached to you.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 06:50
panda @>(@):

This mornings PL/PA news stories?

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_17.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/y0023_z00_6.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/11/z0009_35.html

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 06:45
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):

EBN Gold down .30 and Silver up a cent; Dollar continues to weaken versus the Yen down 1.14 ( 1.18% ) @ 111.23...Nikkei down 242 ( 1.18% ) and Japan's current acount surplus up over 90%....

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 06:16
Mike Sheller Anecdotally speaking>(Anecdotally speaking):

RJ: Did you hear the one about gold being so malleable ( how malleable IS it? ) that an ounce of it can be spun into a wire three miles ( or is it thirty miles? ) long! Or can be hammered so thin ( like the current market ) that you can read thru it? Shirley you've heard that. Doubtless one can unearth stories of refugees pulling themselves out of disintegrating cultures by the thread of a spun gold ounce, while inconspicuously hiding behind a newspaper that they were reading thru a severely beaten ounce of gold. Just try that trick with aluminum and see where it gets you. Also, gold CAN be eaten. Witness its use as a leafed decoration on cakes and pastries at the end stages of civilzations and indulgent societies. Silver bullets have been used in Romania since the 1930's Universal International werewolf movies to kill all sorts of hirsute man-beasts. Sort of like the folks who try to take your gold or .999 potatoes away during those occasional ( and pesky ) societal apocalypses. And as for suits, well, I don't much wear them except for important client meetings, etc, which don't seem to be so important as the years go by. It's the women who are lucky. They can wear gold lame' ( pronounced la-may ( ( can't find my accent here ) . Men can't get away with wearing their Au as clothing per se, without someone shouting Ey-You! ( cept maybe on Fire Island ) . Also, did you ever notice that a one ounce Kruggerrand ( is that 1 G and 2 R's or what? ) is remarkably like a quarter, and will fit nicely in the slot at the laundry when you're low on change. So gold keeps your clothes clean as well. I used to fool the bus drivers in Manhattan with one ounce mapleleafs when they thought I was actually putting subway tokens in the change hopper. Gold gets you where you want to go. No, sir, I think this argument proves beyond a doubt that gold is indeed the only thing one needs to own. Come to think of it, it might even make a wonderful investment vehicle some day.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 05:01
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot):

Earl: You comment June 10 23:26 sums up the Great Debate very nicely. RJ's well spoken and his points should certainly be considered, but he isn't really interested in debating.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:05
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:05
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I WILL BE AN
INFREQUENT POSTER HERE!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 04:03
THE HUMAN CANNONBALL BOOM!>(BOOM!):

SOUNDS LIKE GOOD ADVICE! DON'T WORRY, I PROMISE I
WILL BE AN INFREQENT POSTER HERE!