- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 23:50
cherokee @history-101>(@history-101): - bw--
the great stock crash of '29 and following depression was planned.
when all the dust cleared from the stock crash, there was a
congressional investigation into the cause. before the report
was completed, the congressman who was leading it was assassinated!
there always has been, and there always will be-------manipulation.
the really wealthy families---multi-billionaires-----------have
through strength of wealth, had the rest of the world in a hammer
lock from the start. the playing field has never been level, and
it never will. the next great harvest of wealth from the working
class is about to get underway. the up-coming food shortages will
fit right in with their taking of YOUR wealth with the second great
stock crash. it has happened before, and it will happen again.
gold at $300.00 or lower? please let it happen in my life-time!
i will scrub toilets and sell newspapers to help buy every last
shard of the glittering golden one! this would be a blessing in
disguise, as are the current low prices.
cherokee!; ) c'mon eagle-eye greenie---raise those rates! - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 23:14
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Hi everyone......sheesh...I wish my day job was not so demanding!! I can't seem to find the time these last couple weeks to jump into these discussions. I should get a break in a couple weeks.
Tortfeasor.....loved your conclusion that the Congress won't let Japan sell a car in the US if they decided to dump their bonds! As a matter of fact, when the average Joe figures out what Japan did to his personal finances, he won't be too encouraged to buy, either! And don't forget that the price of oil is pegged to the dollar. If Japan starts dumping bonds, one could see a scenario of a $5 jump in a barrel of oil. That will hit Japan right in the ol' bread basket.
George Cole.....sorry to see you bummed out with the current entrenched bear. A few months ago we were all excited about a 10 buck jump! But you realism is refreshing and I enjoy reading your posts.
For what it's worth.....I've started a slow and methodical liquidation of my rental real-estate holdings. For one, I'm just tired of managing from afar; for two, my cash flow just isn't where it should be; and for three, I don't see that market getting any better. Any thoughts on that?
I'm very glad to see some folks admitting that they too are all in on the gold market. I hope they are positions that can hold on ( like Mutuals or raw stocks ) . As I've said before, I'll keep boosting up my mutuals in fits and starts as the market lanquishes. Shoot, it's gone down from $8.50 to 7.50 in the last couple months. I hate to see a decline, but love the math when I cost average everything down. Of course, I'm also trying to buy 3 gold eagles a month ( big spender here, eh? [G] However, I just got a new computer, so there goes a few eagles for this month!!
Scotty's recommendation for all.......don't quit your day jobs! :- ) )
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 23:12
Objective Observer @ Alleycat>(@ Alleycat): - John/hepcat: Sir, a more appropriate handle than “hepcat” would be “alleycat.” Your vile and baseless attack on the proven market knowledge of George S. Cole prompt three thoughts to leap to mind. The first two delineate your lack of understanding of the dynamics of securities analysis, and your obvious paucity of character. And the last delineates the bold credibility of Mr. Cole’s generosity in sharing his market insights and analysis with the Kitco readership.
Alleycat, you very much remind of some unscrupulous Wall Street brokers I have read about. They make an appearance once every 3-4 months. They will tell 1/2 of their hapless prospects that the market will be UP during the next 3 months - and the other 1/2 are told the market will be DOWN in the next quarter. Not surprisingly, these deceitful brokers will only call back that 1/2 which were told the correct market trend. Then, as we have seen today they shamefully reappear to boast: “See, I told you so.” They offered no analysis, no insights, no logical thought process - just the deception of telling two groups opposite stories.
The second disagreeable thought which your groundless assault brings to mind demonstrates an acute lack of character on your part. Many of you ilk suffer with a malicious penchant to inventing faults in those who tirelessly share their work and competence with others - ON A REGULAR BASIS. Your purpose is painfully obvious: you hope to build your ego by attempting to tear-down or demean the well-deserved reputations of those seers who have earned the public’s respect. Alleycat,... that’s despicable... and you owe Mr. Cole a public apology.
My last thought reminds me not only of George S. Cole, but also of the many other Kitco analysts who dedicate many hours each month, analyzing and studying the markets - in order to unselfishly share their on-going labors and competence with those who may not have the time nor background to do the work for themselves. Teddy Roosevelt very eloquently expressed what my humble words are trying to say:
“It is not the critic who counts, nor the man who points out how the strong man stumbles of where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes up short again and again; who knows great enthusiasms, the devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly so that his place will never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither defeat nor victory.”
- Theodore Roosevelt
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 23:05
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - John: You know very well that trying to address 2 posts at one time always confuses you. For the evening, please refrain from doing so. You'll see. The medication will kick in and it will all be better in the morning.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 23:02
D.A. maybe.its.already.over>(maybe.its.already.over): - George S. Cole:
Perhaps it is that the stock bull is already over. We have been looking for one more good rally so that we could establish a short position. Each day I watch, I see what looks like is going to be a move back to the highs and beyond and then failure. Todays action was typical of a failing market. Early decline on news, rally all day, sell off at the end. The actual amount of time the stocks spent going down was miniscule yet the result was down. This is the worst kind of action possible. With everyone complacent about rates, this Thursday's unemployment number may catch a lot of folks off guard. Due to very large seasonal adjustments in May the number was within reason. This month there will be payback on the statistical side. If we get a big headline number, it could be lights out for the bond market. Stocks will follow.
Because we are not yet short this is a high probability event. If we do manage to get short over the next two days rest assured that the bull market will continue. Our biannual sacrifice to the S&P gods is due. We do not want to offend anyone. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 23:00
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - George Cole: Per your last post: I don't think it so much a conscious effort on the part of the 'powers that be' so much as it is the invocation of the law of unintended consequences compounded ( aided ) by ancillary forces that think that if some is good, more is better. The entire climate surrounding the grim stuff has been so degraded that it is inevitable, IMO, that only production cuts and a severe widening of the spread between supply and demand will begin to ameliorate the situation. Ignoring, of course, the usual caveats regarding wars, acts of nature and other such unpleasantness.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:54
A Loving and Amiable Wife oxymoron>(oxymoron): - Earl: Ouch! Have I become an ox? A moron? If you cut me to the quick, do I not bleed? O how sharper than a serpent's tooth it is to have an ungrateful husband. Only gold is crueller. How has one hurt you so?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:50
D.A. a.question.and.some.observations>(a.question.and.some.observations): - Glenn:
Does the large scale put buying inform you to 'sell all rallies' or is there something else which colors your thinking. What you describe seems more to me like the capitulation found at the terminal phase of moves, rather than a situation which is unfolding.
Gold hit a low of around 340 a few months back and now we are 6 bucks lower with the dollar commensurately higher and yet the sentiment is radically poorer. Your reports of put buying are reflected in the put premiums which last I looked were higher than the call premiums. This is a significant change in the market structure and one that my casual observations have not seen since the bear market began almost a year and a half ago.
One thought that occurs to me which could have a salutory effect on the price of gold absent any wars or financial conflagrations is that the countries which are major gold producers may endeavor to do something to help out their mines. Rather than see their industries be decimated perhaps a little government intervention in the form of CB purchases may be in order. Since it appears that everyone wants to devalue their currencies why don't they just print some paper and buy some gold. Solves a lot of problems with ease. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:48
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - John @Hepcat: John, you're in your 'cups', again, this evening. You know they will just have to increase the medication again. And you were doing so well. ... Lurking and lurking without so much as a fuss. And now. Just look what you are doing! Tsk! Tsk! .... Before you know it, you will be back to where you were in Nov and Dec. Remember?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:38
Earl @worldacessnet.com>(@worldacessnet.com): - WW: From your post: My more progressive friends indicated the need to maintain all benefits to the people is what is important in a Marx-Lenin sense. ...... Ignoring additions to the apparatchiks fleet of Mercedes-Benz; what on earth could those benefits be ..... 5 years in the Gulag, making athletic shoes, instead of 10? ...... Ah, if only Marx and Lenin made sense. An oxymoron, like a loving and amiable wife.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:30
George s. Cole gold bear>(gold bear): - MOREGOLD: No doubt there will be many mine closings if this gold bear continues much longer. I find it hard to believe the CBs and their allies would want to push bullion down so much as to virtually guarantee a huge rebound far beyond $400 a year or two down the road. But it looks like this is their goal.
Still think they will not be able to maintain the gold bear once the stock bull ends. But until then I must agree that the path of least resistence is DOWN. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:20
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): -
Of course, for all this to happen, we'd have to avoid a Dow crash,
which everyone on this channel knows is going to happen in August
or September.
See: http://www.Vronsky.com/worse than those South of the Border billboards.html - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 22:01
telecaster @got me again>(@got me again): - .....second, The US Congress would see to it tha Japan never imported another automobile into this country again. Detroit would never have had so many friends in Washington.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 21:59
telecaster @Japan / Bonds>(@Japan / Bonds): - Last week I wrote to a friend that the implications of Hashimoto's remarks were staggering. Well, I am here now to say that I take it all back. It took me several days of reflecting to come to the conclusion that the worlds markets came to almost immediately: that his comments were rash, unprofessional, and downright stupid. This country that produces nary a barrel of oil nor an ounce of gold, with China breathing down their neck, is going to bring the US quaking to its knees with its threats to sell our bonds, which they apparently have been buying as a favor to us, simply because we want greater access to Japanese markets. How incredibly weak and revealing his comments were! I'm sure Clinton and Rubin told this guy to stuff it. Perhaps in addition to subsidizing their defense, securing their oil supplies, and granting them nearly unrestricted access to our markets, ( which is not reciprocated ) , they would also like us to just send them cash. Japan has far more to lose in this game than the US does. I think Hashimoto has damaged them immensly, in a political sense. If Japan were insane enough to carry out their threats, two things would happen. First, they would find the US economy to be remarkably resilient, ( unlike Japan's more restricted, centrally controlled economy ) , and second,
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 21:56
Predictor #>(#): - July will be a brutal month in my view ( for stocks and metals; obviously with individual exceptions ) . A crash? I don't have a working crystal ball. July will a down month. Followed by an August rebound ( in metals and stocks ) . Following that, metals ( and metal stocks ) will continue to climb and stocks will decline through the end of the year and continuing into 98 ( stocks may have a rebound period here and there; but we are entering a bear market phase in July ) . It is the calm before the storm.
There are many people who think the market cannot crash or enter a bear market. The latter, in my opinion, is more likely. Forces will try to support the market from crashing. This is just the Predictor's opinion. If you don't agree, by all means, join the sucker rally. I've personally have moved almost all of my funds out of equities and into money market funds ( and a few select metals related investments ) . Another transaction to pull virtually all of my funds out of the equity markets will occur within the next two weeks. The person who thinks he cashed out too early may be the person who preserves most of his wealth. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 21:52
WW @NewEngland>(@NewEngland): - I have been celebrating the rejoinder of HK to China. Many of my Chinese compadres who I love and respect love the celebration. They have told me to ignore the HK Democrats as they are an impediment to economic progress.. My more progressive friends indicated the need to maintain all benefits to the people is what is important in a Marx-Lenin sense. I have an invite to the Chineses Embassy in Wash DC for a celebration of the turnover next week!! What does this mean to Gold ?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 21:36
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com): -
GFD: Your line about Richard Russel sure was funny ( to me ) . I used to
subscribe to RR's Dow Theory Letters. For the first year, it was really
good. I learned alot. Then during the second year - each letter was
sounding very familar. I went back and reread earlier letters and found
that he had taken pages from earlier letters and just added changed the
date on the letterhead. This guy was just recycling old letters, he
wasn't even changing the sentence or paragraph structure. What a great
scam - he should of included it in his the perfect business lists.
I know some readers out there read Strategic Investment, is there
anything new with International Thunderbird? Lately, the company hasn't
been taking my calls. Many thanks in advance. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 21:19
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - EB: Thanks for Bernstein URL. Interesting comments regarding gold and silver. Explosive ...... But, as usual, it lacks a time table. T'was always thus.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 21:13
Peter Born Loser Tuesday's Financial Times>(Tuesday's Financial Times): - Hi all, just thought I'd reproduce a few comments from today's
Financial Times ( London, 1st of July '97 ) . Best wishes,
p
Gold: Prices sink to four-year low
TUESDAY JULY 1 1997
By Michael Peel and Laurie Morse
Gold plumbed its lowest depths for more than four years as south-east
Asian markets weakened. The morning gold fixing of $334.05 a troy
ounce was the lowest since March 30 1993. It closed in London at
$334.10, down $2.80.
There was evidence of increased hedging in Australian markets at the end
of the country's financial year. Meanwhile demand was softer in India and
Pakistan.
Ms Rhona O'Connell, analyst for T. Hoare & Co, said: Some of the
merchandisers in Hong Kong bought too much, in anticipation of increased
demand for the handover, which hasn't materialised. Physical demand was
also low because dealers were holding for the end of the meeting of the
Federal Open Market Committee tomorrow, she added. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 20:30
EB It's Monday @ Jakes>(It's Monday @ Jakes): - I know how much everyone has been waiting on the edge of their seats for the Jake B. commentary. And now, without any further delays...
http://www.trade-futures.com/reports.html Hit reload if it's not current. I know that everyone has already bookmarked this site... this is for the fortunate souls who are reading for the first time!
Away... fast and far :- ( )
EB
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 20:30
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): -
Mike - I have been a contributor longer than George.
I have had to put up with a lot more crap than George.
Make sure you know what you're talking about before
you lecture me. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 20:28
Mike Sheller taps>(taps): - 2WEEKS: Loved your Iceman Cometh analogy. One of my favorite plays. I'd lend an ear to that, any day. DONALD: God's address to Adam was before the Fall. The trick now is to work one's way back...carefully. JOHN ( Hepcat ) it's real cheap an' easy to bad mouth a true CONTRIBUTOR. Be careful than your own excessive slime may dislodge your footing in gratuitous confrontations with your betters.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 20:07
vronsky GOLD: MOMENT OF MAXIMUM PESSIMISM?>(GOLD: MOMENT OF MAXIMUM PESSIMISM?): - Redoubtable market seer George S. Cole foresees DOW 8500 in August followed by 20% decline - And Gold bear entering final panic stage. See June 30 report:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 19:45
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - I would like to agree 100% with MoreGold. This drop in gold and the overall bear market it's in could extend into next year. At these prices for such an extended period of time will affect the long term financial well being of the gold mining industy setting us up for one grand bull market. If Alan's goal was price stability and low gold prices he's going to get more than what he bargon for. The cat's out of the bag and the governments are going to get screwed in the long term!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 19:34
MoreGold @trader ed >(@trader ed ): - Unless there was other news, the reality of mine scalebacks and shutdowns is looming heavy on the stocks. SA is a very high cost producer of AU, and even with income from hedging and forward sales,
the current Gold price will leave many operations in the red.
Earnings of these companies will be hit very hard with these closings.
Basically the CB's will be replacing the mines as suppliers of AU.
To me , this is very bullish in the long term as it will take a much higher price to restart these mines, and the CB's will eventually be out of
the picture.
Of course for the immediate future, we're stuck with this horrible market,
that seems to be building momentum on the ugly side. Oh well, thats reality... - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 19:23
Donald @Home>(@Home): - We are seeing good news. Stop looking at it in dollar terms. The Dow is dropping more than gold. Today the Dow will only get you 22.87 ounces. I think our peak ( since 1966 ) is 23.5 ounces. This is a good sign. If 23.5 holds we have seen the top.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 19:06
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - I wish I had some good news but again I do not.
It seems that one trader who had been buying lately was selling some today. I guess even the well financed bulls can say uncle at some point.
The volume in the options market was 14,000 today. I was so happy thinking that someone big was buying lots of calls before they drove the price up and scared all the shorts but after talking to the options traders it seems that several large orders ( about 1500 contracts each ) were placed to BUY PUTS! Oh well maybe next week, because no matter how low we go this week the low simple will no be put in this week. Sell all rallies.
From a technical point of view I hope we hold 325 but it is not looking good right now. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 18:49
bw Bubbles>(Bubbles): - Ever since the 1930's an ongoing debate has roiled as to the cause of the great depression ( of the 1930s ) . Much flack flys over the various players and their parts. Most books still say most experts cannot agree as to the root cause. But after living thru the last three decades or so it has become 100% clear to me as to the cause of the next great depression ( and in my mind the last as well ) . It is quite simply the human mind set that condones, encourages and revels in the feel good creation and growth of a credit bubble. Once you have created the credit bubble an economic depression follows as sure as night follows day.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 18:47
George s. Cole stock market>(stock market): - Steve Puetz: Steve Kaplan reports that gold equity put volume was exceedingly high again today.
The small cap stocks performed very well today despite the sell off in the big boys. Still think this seotor of the market, which still is way behind the Dow despite a better performance of late, will have a big run before things break down badly. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 18:31
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - The stock market sell-off in the last hour, and the XAU recovery during the same period was most likely the result of the completion of end-of-quarter window-dressing by portfolio managers. Now that they've gotton rid of their gold-related investments, these issues are likely to rally because sellin-pressure has abated. Now that they're loaded up on stock, so they can show everyone how heavily into blue-chips they are, no more buyers are likely to emerge the rest of the week.
After the close, S&P futures fell another 4 points, indicating a 40 point drop in the Dow Industrials tomorrow. Also after the close, technology bell-weather, Cyrix, indicated they would have a loss for the 2nd quarter. The earnings disapointments continue to mount.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 18:28
trader ed traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com): - John Disney, or anyone else in South Africa, the South African Gold stocks seemed to have crashed today, with U.S. Global Services Gold Fund down more than 5%. This fund is mainly in the South Africans. Was something in the news over there, or is there a political event which is not on the news over here? I would appreciate any information. Thanks.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 18:22
MoreGold Montreal>(Montreal): - Im in on that Montreal date.
Let's hope it will be sooner than later.
Things are going too well for paper, something has got to crack.
Not the Goldbugs I hope :- ) - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 17:48
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Whatever happened to Dominion Day? That is the way I remember it.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 17:43
auroelf JCandles, Canada Day>(JCandles, Canada Day): - Earl: Thanks. The library is searching for it even now.
Selby: Thanks for the traffic report.
Happy Canada Day to y'all North of the Border. You and HongKong can celebrate independence together from now on. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 17:20
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Auroelf: Sorry for the delayed response. The latest from Steve Nison is Beyond Candlesticks. John Wiley and Sons, pub. I bought a copy through Amazon.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 17:13
George Cole Montreal>(Montreal): - JOHN M: I'm game for that Montreal get together. Think we'll have to wait until 1998 but wouldn't object to some 1997 festivities.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:32
John N. (Retiarivs)>((Retiarivs)): -
This is the finest of sites, gold at 33X or no. When gold betters US$450, let's get together in Montreal and wine and dine into the wee hours with Bart as our guest of honour. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:30
OBSERVER PROVERB>(PROVERB): - Those on this forum now gloating over the gold's miserable performance of late will soon discover that he who laughs last laughs best.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:30
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Don't get me started with religion! Human life without external limit has been a problem for a long time. Adam was the first guy to run up his credit card. In Pico's oration, God addresses Adam: You may have and possess whatever abode, form and functions that you might desire. The nature of all other beings is limited and constrained within the bounds of law prescribed by us. But you, constrained by no limits, in accordance with your own free will, in whose hand we have placed you, shall ordain for yourself the limits of your nature.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:25
nailz LURKER...HEH....HEH....>(LURKER...HEH....HEH....): - LURKER......ROTFLMAO......HA HA.....You are making the same prayer I have made a thousand times over !!!!!!!!! But I was much younger then, and more foolish....But wasn't it a lot of fun to piss it away I bet I know you !!!!!!! BEST LAUGH TODAY !!!! ( in sympathy ) ...
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:22
NJ Forecasts>(Forecasts): - NotaGoldbug : There is nothing wrong with presenting a minority opinion to a discussion group. The group invariably gains by that and this group is no exception. You were correct in your forecast of the gold market and deserve at least as much recognition as the analysts who, during the same time period, were recommending purchase of 'any' DJII stock following a dip in the market. My only objection is to the vitriol and personal attacks. Unless, of course, if you are looking for the Mike Tyson medal.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:14
George S. Cole gold stocks>(gold stocks): - August gold down 60 cents today, but gold stocks staged a modest rally the last hour. XAU and HUI both up a bit after having been down around 1% most of the day. Given the extraordinarily downbeat mood on this forum of late, maybe the specialists figure this is as good a time as any to mark up their inventory.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:09
GVC @XAU +.23>(@XAU +.23): - Will wonders ever cease!!!....XAU finished on the plus side...hardbinger of rally mode rest of week?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:09
GFD Religion>(Religion): - I would say that with all the biblical quotes and religious commentary ( not to mention astrology ) in addition to the general bearishness in the last stronghold of the bugs that gold is no longer forming a secular bottom but is now forming a religious bottom! ;- )
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 16:01
GFD Exhaustion>(Exhaustion): - To all: BillD's comment about rafting in WVa being down due to credit card exhaustion is probably the archetype for what will happen to the markets and the economy. Imagine the devastation that would happen if people got religion and started to REDUCE their debt by even 5% per year!! The same is even more true for the markets.
Richard Russel has said for years that the primary trend in a market will continue until it reaches a state of exhaustion.
With valuations so high, mathematics will tell you it takes more and more dollars to move the markets up a point. At some point, there just won't be enough dollars available to keep the markets moving up. I suspect we are at that point now. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 15:51
Pedro @ the crossroads>(@ the crossroads): - Re NJ Gov Whitman's Stock investment scheme....reminds me of the ancient warning..whom the
gods would destroy they first make mad. Get the same feeling watching many of todays TV ads
and so called popular programs. Reify: Greed and waste have always been with Man: The more
things change the more they remain the same ( as in human nature ) . For much of the time things
never get as bad as we fear or as good as we hope...but rather we spend most of our time in
that large grey area between the two extremes.And speaking of extremes Gold appears to be an
extremely goodbye...sorry good buy....at this point....just like last week and the week before.
Like most goldbugs I'm a perennial and tenacious Bull. The logical case for Gold is hard to
dismiss but the current reality makes it hard to keep the faith. However many years of
conditioning hang me in there if you'll pardon the expression ) If Gold looked good last year
over 400 it has to look even better today at 334 and tomorrow ( God forbid at 300 ) or what
ever..Is this also a case of whom the Gods would destroy .... as I continue to average down? I
sure as hell hope not because I seem to have passed the point of no return in this
adventure.Notagoldbug: you have offered some very valid points for us goldbugs to consider in
your postings. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 15:49
2weeks It_has_to_be_a_gift>(It_has_to_be_a_gift): - I don't know what it is, Tort, but somehow when you tell a joke, it just seems funnier.
Maybe it's the juxtaposition with the state of the things, goldwise. How many days in a row can this continue? I mean, in Oklahoma they called in Burt Lancaster. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 15:34
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - To Steve Puetz, Following is a comment by Barry Riley of the London Financial Times:
But could a bolt from the blue emerge in the US corporate sector itself, in
the shape of earnings disappointments? There is, in particular, growing
controversy about a possible enormous error in corporate accounting
statements.
Many investors are uneasily aware that it is only the un-expected strength
of profits that keeps US stock prices in any sort of contact with historical
valuation ranges. On the basis of dividend yields, say, or price-to-book
ratios, share prices are in outer space. But when the trailing price-earnings
ratio on the S&P 500 Index reached 22 last Friday, falling to maybe 19 on
a prospective 1998 basis, it was not outrageously out of line with past
experience ( in bull markets, anyway ) .
There is deep concern, however, over the implications of stock options,
which are now a huge benefit - worth maybe $70bn ( Ł42.4bn ) a year, and
rising - to US executives and other employees. But because of an
accounting loophole these are not being charged against corporate
earnings.
According to Andrew Smithers, a London-based economic consultant,
earnings may be overstated by 20 per cent, or even more. That trailing p/e
ratio could be 30. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 15:32
Hey Winston>(Winston): - don't call me Shirley.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 15:01
Winston Churchill 10 Downing St>(10 Downing St): -
Those KITCOites are surley a humble bunch of souls.... With a lot to be humble about!
W.C. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:50
Tortfeasor Belated joke of the day>(Belated joke of the day): - Here's a little offering for those suffering from market fatigue and from getting beaten up by non-gold bugs on a daily basis.
A man was sat at home one night when there was a loud
knock at the door. The man answers angrily to find a 6 ft stag
beetle standing at the doorstep. What the hell is this? he
shouts, at which time the beetle launches into a frenzied and
vicious attack in a flurry of kicks and punches - then leaves.
The man crawls into his house and calls an ambulance, but
is naturally not keen to reveal the truth behind his injuries.
Finally, one day he tells a doctor, but surprisingly, the doctor
believes him and is sympathetic, I understand, he says,
there is a nasty bug going around at the moment... - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:43
George s. Cole Japan>(Japan): - Cherokee: The article I posted this morning was written by John Cruedel of the New York Post. Makes a lot of sense though.
Bob: You are correct. The Japanese may well sell T-bonds and purchase European currencies instead of gold. They might also put some of the proceeds into European currencies and some into gold. They probably will not buy much gold unless Rubin and Greenspan thumb their noses at Hashimoto's request to help stabilize the dollar/yen at a reasonable level.
Hong Kong turnover another non starter for bullion as many here anticipated. August gold off 90 cents. Gold will continue trending lower until the financial bull ends.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:42
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - To All, As gold has gone down there have been many conspiracy theories
as to why. And, I must admit, they have some appeal. But truthfully, they
are usually a cover for the loser to rationalize his loses. Trading is hard work
and, for the serious investor, to blame anyone but himself for being on the wrong
side of any trade is almost ludicrous. If you say: I'm not a trader I'm and investor,
you are equally disillusioned.. All commodities and I mean all are only trading
vehicles. They have never been a good long term hold with as much as 20 to
40 year cycles. Now this is just my two cents worth for the novice investor. Gold
will have its day, but most here will be unable to enjoy it.. I will be silent now..
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:27
EB @cherokee>(@cherokee): - Puts are very nice for Sept. Euro. It looks as though ( from todays market movement ) the adjustments are already happening in anticipation of a rate change. But then you already jumped in friday anyway...oh sagacious one.
AWAY :- ) ) ( ( ) ) ( ( ) ) ( ( ) )
EB - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:19
Lurker I am sick of this>(I am sick of this): - Please, Please, Lord, Let there be another gold boom!!!!
I promise not to piss it away next time. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:14
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): -
I'm so glad I didn't spend my money these past few months,
and I'm even more glad I'm not going to spend any on gold
for the next few weeks, since to do otherwise would be plum
foolish. Now is not the time to buy or to encourage others
to buy. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:12
EB More Winston...Why not? He's Groovy Baby!>(More Winston...Why not? He's Groovy Baby!): - I pass with relief from the tossing sea of Cause and Theory to the firm ground of Result and Fact.
Sir Winston Spencer Churchill
John Hepcat - is this what you're talking about?
AWAY!!
EB - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:12
Donald @Work>(@Work): - PANDA: So you are the guy I am selling my stocks to...nice to meet you. Thank you for your gold.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 14:08
cherokee @another-path>(@another-path): - g.cole re:09:00----
your take of the pressures on bald-headed al and
his problems are to the point. this problem for
al is really an opportunity for big profits for all.
you call for a 50% chance that bald-headed al will
raise rates this week. merril lynch is saying 25%.
that is pretty good odds in my book.
sept eurodollar 9375 puts are 1 pt. ( $25.00 ) this
contract is in a super tight ( 9414 ) channel and will
drop like valkyrie on high if green-bean raises rates.
a $50.00 broker fee + $25.00 = $75.00 to be in position
IN CASE a move is made. this small gamble could easily return
10x or better. rates will have to be raised. we needed a catalyst.
the japanese have assumed this role quite admirably. so be it. eurodollar
puts are good investments before ANY meeting of the fomc for the foreseeable future.
cherokee!; ) hoarder of gold calls and eurodollar puts. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 13:59
EB Insurance premium>(Insurance premium): - Tortfeaser 13:11 - Try not to think about it as discretionary income.
It is more like an insurance policy. Keep paying the premiumsmonthly.
Right along with your, TERM, death ( life ) insurance. Options are inexpensive now. Silver is in a tight corner. Can it get any lower?
...AWAY
EB...thinks not
golf jokes - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 13:51
Bob @...real politik>(@...real politik): - G.S.Cole: The mechanics of a Japanese sell-off of US govt debt would be muted unless the Japs also made a concerted effort to buy gold. The Japanese may instead buy Eurodollars + DM + basket of EU currencies for better 'real politik' results. The Japanese exchange of most of its US$ debt for European currencies would bid up the values of European paper ( versus YEN ) and stimulate ( amoung other things ) Japanaese exports to Europe. This strategy would permit the Japanese to play hardball with current ECU politics. The rationale for an EC paper exchange for US debt - instead of gold - would be to give notice to the US that if the Japanese can not 'morally persuade' the US FED to listen to its largest minority shareholder it may have better chances in Europe supporting monetary union and global currency stability from a Jap perspective.
The dynmamics - fundamental and speculative - of a Jap sell-off of US debt are exciting.
No doubt we both prefer that some of that Jap US debt - if it leaves - to flood the gold market.
Cheers - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 13:47
yellowdog @tapped out!>(@tapped out!): - Tortfeasor: I hear ya. I kept holding a little back to repurchase a timely dips to reaverage at a lower cost basis, but now I am fully invested and well past the point of absorbing my losses. no more funds to repurchase to bring down my cost basis more :- ( , so just hangin in there until the tide turns. I wonder how this experience will affect me trying to pick a spot to get out after the rally starts?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 13:43
panda @>(@): - Spin doctors at it again, no inflation. Notice how when the Long Bond dosen't 'act properly'... We are told not to worry, but to be happy! :- )
Don't worry Tort.... That stuff is worthless....
The new Gold is STOX, especially the S&P500 kind :- ) - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 13:31
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - It's a dang pity I've already blown all my discretionary money on gold and silver when they were at higher levels or I would certainly be squandering it at thiese levels. In fact if I had any money I would be buying silver futures to the extent I had any money; but like the maid who spilt her milk I am left to cry over my spilt milk of bygone weeks.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 12:47
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - II (30 June 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - II (30 June 1997)): - JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD! ( PART - II ) . Per global experts - “It’s Inevitable”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 12:13
Observer thoughts>(thoughts): - August will be the crucial month for paperbugs and goldbugs. Will Dow collapse/ Will gold soar? Place your bets ladies and gentlemen and may the best man ( or woman ) win.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 12:06
MoreGold @NM Article - World Gold demand>(@NM Article - World Gold demand): - This article demonstrates what I have been observing for quite some time. Developing countries ( Asia etc. ) are accumulating Gold ( +PM's ) , while the West ( US Canada Europe ) , are disposing, divesting. This is true for the official sector CB's, as well as private individuals/investors.
Basically we in the West ( excluding me and a few others of course ) , put our full trust and assets in the hands of the paper pushers, while the Asians are more suspicious of the system in general and are accumulating hard assets, and hedging their bets.
I know from personal contacts how very few in the West hold insurance ( PM's ) in case of disaster - ( almost nil ) .
I have to say that people in the industrialized nations are STUPID not to see this.
Who will be proven right in the end, I have little doubt.
There will be a massive redistribution of wealth and it won't be coming towards the West.
Anyone for paper recycling ?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:52
Donald @Work>(@Work): - BILLD: Re BIG MECCA. My wife and I went to Freeport, Maine two weeks ago, shopping Mecca, LL Bean etc. Same week that we were there 4 years in a row. Always packed before but not this year. We estimated 50% down. Empty stores that were never empty before. The weather was 85, extra hot for Maine but......
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:47
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Panda: Yes I read the rest of your post and no I'm not long in bonds.. I do not
trade bonds but can see the yield, for some, attractive; considering the overall
inflation outlook.. I also do not see serious deflation.. Personally gold is not a
good proxy either way. Up to now the fundamentals in gold have been just plain
lousy and that is all there is to it.. I do not see the price weakness in gold the
precursor to deflation.. I do not do intramarket analysis, to me it is a waist of time.
Back in 1980 when rates soared precious metals collapsed deflation reigned..
Your looking for more in this market than it is going to give you..
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:40
BillD Inflation/deflation>(Inflation/deflation): - In the FWIW category ... I just returned this weekend from the New River Gorge Area in WVa...a BIG MECCA for vacation river rafting, mountain bikes, etc....and the rafting business is OFF 30% this year from last year. Sure weather...etc...but the thinking is that people are just too much in debt...credit cards too full ... to recreate ...wonder what that means...doesn't sound like inflation to me!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:26
vronsky The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)>(The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)): - Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:20
panda @?>(@?): - NotaGoldbug -- Are you long in bonds? Did you read the rest of my post? I think I mentioned the deflation word.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:20
general VA gun org>(VA gun org): - www.nvcdl.org for va gun law info.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 11:07
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Panda: You said, The faith placed in bonds is remarkable.
What is that suposed to mean? Your faith in gold is equally remarkable?!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:59
panda @>(@): - The faith placed in bonds is remarkable. Rising rates will slay any economic evil that comes are way! ( Meaning gold or inflation. ) The question remains, why are rates rising? What are they afraid of? :- ) )
Just this morning, a business commentator on the radio was poking fun at gold and gold bugs. His comments were to the effect that there are more Deflationary signs than inflationary signs. Gold was among those signs. Stocks were great though! Dose anyone see anything wrong with those comments? How can deflation be good for stocks? Something like, falling prices leading to falling earnings which lead to layoffs, which lead to... I don't think he realized what he was saying. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:58
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Talking to a Western Australian Wheat Belt farmer tonight. His farm has increased from A$300 per acre upto A$430 an acre in the last three months. How's that for inflation Perth real estate just starting to move up on interest rate drops. However, we mutually agreed that all is not right, & that a deflationary feeling seems to be in the air. The real estate pick up will be very short lived. It seems like we are marching into a very big black hole at the moment.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:51
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - DONALD: RE: YOUR REQUEST:
( Can you teach me how to do that? How do you plug in the site you want
us to read? That is really neat. )
ANSWER:
To insert another web article you have read onto this Kitco Discussion Group, simply highlight the URL or Location address at the top of your screen, & type Control & the c key at the SAME time, to save it in your pointer ( so to speak ) . Then position the pointer where you want it, and type Control & the v key at the SAME time. This is referred to as cutting and pasting. It will only highlight on this site if you are inserting a location address. Hope this is the correct answer to your earlier question. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:46
2weeks Dear_John>(Dear_John): - Don't you know that your ruthless cold realism is not welcome here? Haven't you ever read The Iceman Cometh by O'Neill? You've come into our bar, smashed our icons, bringing your brand of objective truth from the outside world. Please, sidle up to the bar, have a drink, and muse with us about good things to come. Be supportive. Be encouraging. Nobody, you and I included, knows the future of the markets. We just know that soon, very soon now, gold will stage a dramatic turnaround into the high 400's and the Dow will get below 3000 and stay there until long after your youngest daughter is married. Is that cool with you? I mean, I'm not trying to bite your ear off or anything, OK?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:43
Impartial @home>(@home): - John: OK, OK, Truce ! ( There, I did get the last word in !! ) .
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:34
Lan Man @More Propaganda>(@More Propaganda): - From the front page of the L.A. Times Business section, Sunday June 29, 1997:
Gospel or Just Old Sermons? Investment Truisms May Not Always Hold True
But if everyone blithely believes in a particular financial strategy, can it still be valid? Perhaps - but with some caveats, as the following evaluations of five popular financial truisms will show:
1. To determine how much of your investments should be in stocks, subtract your age from 100, then invest that percentage in stocks. The rest should be in more stable bonds or cash accounts.
It's a handy rule of thumb, but it may be far to simple for most people. First of all, it ignores the single largest asset class for most Americans - real estate, meaning their homes. If you consider your home a fairly conservative and stable long-term investment, ( and perhaps it finally is again, in Southern California ) , shouldn't that allow you to be more agressive with your other investable long-term funds?
Also, for people in their 20's or early 30's, who potentially have a very long-term time horizon, there's a good argument that virtually all of their investable dollars belong in stocks, rather than just 70% to 80%. The real issue is time. If you need your money soon, it shouldn't be in stocks. But if you have 20, 30 or 40 years, it's hard to argue against stocks, versus bonds or cash.
2. Stocks will return about 10% annually over the long run.
Both bulls and bears love this truism. the bulls use it to justify investing heavily in stocks even at current heights. The bears use it to predict a period of very low stock returns ahead, because the market's gains have been so far above 10% a year over the past 20 years. From the bears' point of view, in other words, because stocks have returned about 17% a year since 1980, while average annual returns since 1930 has been 10%, at some point soon the market's returns should drop well below 10% for an extended period, to keep the long-term average in place.
Is the glass half-full or half-empty? The bears' mantra of regression to the mean sounds logical ( and scary ) enough. But it's not at all certain that 10% is the normal return on stocks, some analysts point out. That figure may well be too low, because it includes the Drepression-era returns, such as they were: From 1927 through 1944, the market's annual return was a mere 5.5%. If there's no equivalent economic depression in the next 20 years, who's to say that equity returns won't stay very high, in the process lifting the long-term average well above 10%?
3. Older people need to think more about capital preservation than capital appreciation.
To a certain extent this is true. But unless your days are clearly numbered, even at 65 you probably don't want to turn too many of your growth investments into more conservative income-producing investments. People are living longer than ever before, and odds are you will too. If at age 65 you live another 30 yeras, you will need a good portion of your nest egg to continue growing, rather than simply throwing off fully taxable income while your principle amount withers or stagnates.
4. You will need 80% of your final income to live comfortably in retirement.
Well, sure, 80% would be nice. But need is a fuzzy thing. Plenty of people spend far less in retirement than in their working years, whether by necessity or plan. For example, all of your major expenses may fall sharply when you retire. You may be able to cut housing costs by half if you choose to move to a cheaper locale, for instance. Other costs may be higher, including medical and travel. But overall, the idea that you must save a fortune now - and that Social Security payments will be to small to be worth much in retirement - may be exaggerating what will be reality for many people when they get older.
5. Always pay off large credit card debts before doing anything else with your money.
This one seems hard to argue with. Where else can you get a 12%, 14% or even a 21% guarenteed, tax-free return on your money? In effect, that's what you get when you pay off those credit cards. On the other hand, if you are in a 401 ( k ) or similar savings plan, and your employer matches 100%, 50% or even 25% of your contributions, that is a better return, at least on the face of it. The point is, debt isn't necessarily bad - you just have to manage it. Paying down heavy debts makes sense, but perhaps not at the expense of completely eliminating your savings program.
---------
Well , there you have it, a newspaper reporter telling YOU how it really is. What to believe in, and how YOU should invest your hard earned money. And remember, DEBT IS GOOD!!!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:24
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): -
Impartial - I'm not trying to have the last word, in fact, you can have it if you
want, since I'm not going to post any more about it. I'm just saying when
you go to the Kitco buffet, it's hard to ignore the potato salad if every other
offering is potato salad. Volume ( AND VOLUME ) can also have a subtle
influence on who sways opinion. George has made his point repeatedly.
No one is in the dark on what he thinks. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:23
panda @ >(@ ): - Serious roller coaster on the Dow today. How about dem bondz.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:23
Ron Clinton's Speech>(Clinton's Speech): - Fascinating to watch the Dow bug on CNBC during Clinton's five-minute speech. It was almost like watching one of those debates where everyone in the audience has a boo/bravo button: Hold down the bravo button while you like what you are hearing, hold down the boo button while you don't, and everyone gets to see a continuously updating chart of audience sentiment on a big screen.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen, . . . Dow down 2 . . . yada, yada, yada, reject trickle down, . . . down 3 . . . in a way that won't hurt children, . . . down another point . . . create economic empowerment zones in the inner city, . . . down 2 more. The cumulative drop during his speech was about 30 points. And it fell another 30 points within two minutes after he shut up. What goldbugs need is a Clinton fillibuster! - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:18
Impartial @home>(@home): - John: I take your point, but I am not here to defend George Cole ( I am sure he is quite capable of doing that himself ) . I just think there are better targets for the point of your argument.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:11
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): -
Impartial - Then let's have George set a deadline for the raging turnaround
and have him stick to it. I am not infallible, but George has miscalled the
end of the Dow/start of the gold bull once before, as he would be the first to admit.
Amnesty - Sorry, I'm not speaking in your tongue today. What is your frequency? - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 10:05
Impartial Observer @home>(@home): - John Hepcat: Re Your 9:12 - I think your remarks about George Cole ( assuming that is who you mean by GSC ) are unfair. George has been warning of lower prices in the short term as long as I have been watching this site. To that extent, he IS one of those who called it correctly and should be accorded due credence. There is some truth in the rest of your comments, however.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:50
Amnesty @the window of opportunity >(@the window of opportunity ): - John: Let me guess, umm Vanadium. Because if the Japanese dont buy gold
they will be pumping money into something that will give them an edge
in new automative technology, eg. a battery that uses vanadium. However
my research suggests Vanadium is abundant. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:29
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - Rising demand and falling prices. I must have slept through atleast one more class than I thought.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:28
vronsky GOLD: MOMENT OF MAXIMUM PESSIMISM?>(GOLD: MOMENT OF MAXIMUM PESSIMISM?): - Redoubtable market seer George S. Cole foresees DOW 8500 in August followed by 20% decline - And Gold bear entering final panic stage. See June 30 report:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:24
THE NORTHERN MINER via Okinawa>(via Okinawa): -
World demand for gold higher than in past years -- Developing markets account for much of rise
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold demand for the first three months of the year was 17% higher than in the same period in 1996, according to a survey conducted by the World Gold Council.
The record figures were bolstered by demand in developing countries in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, which totalled 586.8 tonnes, a 22% increase over figures recorded in the first quarter of 1996.
Among developing nations, increased consumption was recorded in: Indonesia, where demand rose 44% to 42 tonnes as a result of a robust jewelry sector; Saudi Arabia, where demand also rose 44%, to 44 tonnes, as a result of greater prosperity stemming from higher oil prices; India, where demand rose 38% to 38 tonnes as a result of strong jewelry sales; and Vietnam, where demand rose 80% to 18 tonnes, owing to higher disposable incomes and currency devaluation.
Overall demand in developed markets, which include the U.S., Japan and Europe, rose 2% to 183.8 tonnes.
Increased jewelry and coin demand pushed demand in the U.S. to 82.9 tonnes, an increase of 9% over figures recorded in the first quarter of 1996. Demand in Japan, however, dropped 8% to 46.5 tonnes, owing in part to weak jewelry sales. Gold demand in Europe rose 3% to 54.5 tonnes. Demand was up 2% and 1%, respectively, in Germany and Italy, and 18% in Britain. French demand fell by 3%. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:22
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - Auroelf: Canadian markets will be closed Tuesday and probably will show a slowdown by about 2 pm Toronto time today. Seems like half the City has left for their cottages already. No traffic problems -no cars on the roads.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:15
Selby Toronto>(Toronto): - If I was selling a precious metal news letter I think this would be a good time to remind K-1 that I brought up the $250/oz possibility last fall. It seemed a little extreme then and for some reason even farther fetched now. My rationale was that when a commodity looses favour in its market it can go below its cost of production for a while. Gold was/is estimated to be produced at about $275 so a short dip below that figure is not unreasonable. Many high cost producers would shut down etc but a commodity selling below the cost of production is not new. Accepting this requires the acceptance of the possibility that gold can loose it's lustre for a period of time and that it can be a glut on the market. Hard to believe about gold.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:12
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu): - At a time when people who called this correctly should be given more credence,
we instead have GSC posting 10-20 times/day, saying, Hold on, hold on or
don't miss out. The zealotry of his posts makes me think he believes
he has received some kind of divine guidance. Hold on, hold on is
not useful advice currently, especially for the new people here. You are not
going to miss out if you don't buy gold now. The price is going to fall this
week, not rise. Yes, eventually gold will turn around, but the time is not now
to be thinking about investing in gold. Please, people, we know how much
everyone loves gold on this forum. Let's not alienate more people by
giving wrong advice. Sometimes the most important thing an apple represents
is itself. Instead of saying all of this bearish sentiment is a contraindicator
or a sign that the bottom is really in, can we take it at face value and say
that it is a representation of what is actually going on right now? What does
the morning London fix tell you to say? THINK
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:09
Donald @Work>(@Work): - Only a fool would make a prediction in this market, only a greater fool would act on mine. Past performance ( lousy ) is probably an indication of future performance ( also lousy )
My prediction: Dow will rally this AM to near 7800, during that period gold will drop to 332. Dow rally will fail and show a small loss for the day. August gold will close near 340. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 09:00
George S. Cole Greenspan's Dilemma>(Greenspan's Dilemma): -
Will Japan call the tune on Fed rate hike?
By JOHN CRUDELE
YOU have to feel a little bit sorry for Alan Greenspan this week. He's in one of those damned if you do,
damned if you don't situations. And it's got to be damned frustrating.
The Federal Reserve Board meets tomorrow to decide whether interest rates need to be raised. They really don't
from an economic point of view because every recent sign is that business in this country is slowing and another
rate hike would only make the situation worse.
And inflation has been barely noticeable, although not quite as invisible as the government's loopy numbers
would have you believe.
But there are two compelling reasons why rates should be increased.
First, the longer Greenspan lets the stock market expand into the greatest financial bubble known to mankind,
the worse it is going to be in the long run for this country and for the Fed chairman's own reputation.
Greenspan knows what is ultimately going to happen, and he's been warning Wall Street of its excesses for
more than two years. But investors, lost in their nothing-can-go-wrong trance, have ignored the caveats of the
Fed. They pretty much told Greenspan to go stick it.
Eventually, the Fed chairman will need to be courageous and tell people what's really going on: I, Alan
Greenspan, am raising interest rates because you people have all gone nuts and think the stock market is a
get-rich-quick scheme. I am here to stop this nonsense. A statement like that would probably do it.
But the second reason for an interest rate hike is more compelling -- Japan wants one.
Yeah, yeah -- I agree, under normal circumstances we'd tell Japan to go to hell. But Boss Ryutaro Hashimoto,
the Japanese prime minister, put us on notice this week that it is time to pay the piper.
America decided in the early 1990s -- well before President Clinton and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin were
on the spin scene -- that we needed the help of our Asian trading partner to keep interest rates down. So we
convinced Japan to buy enormous amounts of U.S. government securities.
And when Japan started getting nervous about these government bonds a few years ago, America blinked. We
promised if Japan ever wanted to get rid of the bonds en masse, the Federal Reserve would buy them. With
what?
By selling our soul to the devil, the U.S. was able to keep interest rates lower than normal at a time when some
major banks needed cheap borrowing costs to stay afloat. The low interest rates also helped perk up a U.S.
economy that looked like it was down for the count. Today, our economy is doing much better than Japan's.
So it isn't surprising that Hashimoto decided to stop in New York last week and, when given the opportunity,
told the Federal Reserve exactly what he wanted.
He said Japan wanted stable currency rates -- which is just another way of saying, Hey, Alan, the dollar is
falling because you don't have the guts to raise interest rates. So jack 'em up, ole friend, or we'll get rates up by
selling the dickens out of all the U.S. government bonds you made us buy.
It's interesting to look at the full transcript of Hashimoto's remarks at Columbia University last week.
Hashimoto was making a speech when someone asked him: Do you think it is in the best interest of Japan and
its people to continue to accumulate U.S. securities?`
Before Hashimoto got into his threat to sell his U.S. bonds, he looked around the room and said, I don't
suppose there's anyone here from the Federal Reserve System or the New York Fed?
Don't worry, Mr. Prime Minister. Even if they weren't there, Greenspan got the message loud and clear.
Starting tomorrow, we'll know whether the Fed chairman will do what's proper ( and not raise rates ) or what
will keep Hashimoto happy. Wall Street thinks rates won't go up. I think it's 50/50.
Copyright ©1997, N.Y.P. Holdings Inc.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 08:54
auroelf USA>(USA): - Are Canadian financial markets closed tomorrow for Canada Day? With US markets closed Friday and Hong Kong reopening that day, this week offers ample opportunity for the Big Boys to play games between markets.
For those who would like to stop getting unwanted sales calls, Frank Capiello on Wall Street Week last Friday gave this advice: 1 ) When a broker calls, tell him you want to be put on his firm's NO CALL LIST. If you get another call from that firm, they are subject to a $500 fine under US law. 2 ) Write your name and phone number asking to be put on the NO CALL LIST at Telephone Preference Service, Direct Marketing Association, PO Box 9014, Farmingdale, NY 11735. That will take you temporarily off all lists sold by that group. Of course the next time you subscribe to a magazine or talk to a cold-call salesman willingly without asking to be off the list, you will put yourself right back in the pool, so you may have to write them again every year.
Earl: What is the name of Steve Nison's most recent book on Japanese Candlestick interpretation? I'll see if my library can borrow it for me.
When Big Trader spoke of the dagger last month, was he warning us not to try to catch a falling knife? - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 08:34
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - My prediction: 337.20
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 08:33
2weeks My prediction>(My prediction): - Today's close: $336.70
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 08:33
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Well. I hope they get there fingers burnt!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 08:29
Donald @Work>(@Work): - Hi Scott: Mabye they are selling gold they don't own yet. He who sells what isn't 'hisn, pays it back or goes to prison.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 08:25
Lurker EMU in deep trouble>(EMU in deep trouble): -
Latest on EMU and Germany-- http://www.afr.com.au/content/970630/world/world2.html - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 07:57
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Evening fellas'... getting ready for NY open. Boy golds looking a bit sick eh! I have know idea whats going to happen, but the gold sellers must be ready to turn their tune soon. Just how much gold do they have?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 07:41
Donald @Work>(@Work): - This site was new to me.
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html#wrapup - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 06:48
panda @>(@): - ezau -- Search for my Sunday 20:32 post. The story is there.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 03:37
Reify @surprise>(@surprise): - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:08
Eldorado ( @the scene ) :
Inflation/Delation!
This ELDORADO, is what I've been saying right along. It's happened before, but it won't come all at once, this situation takes a while to unfold, and in its gradual unfolding it will catch most by surprise.
Eyes will open one day and look back, and ask how could we have allowed this sort of thing to happen. The answer is quite simple- greed! We all are willing to enjoy life to its fullest, even at the expense of borrowing against what rightfully is not ours, but our future generations right to some of those things we're wasting today. The key word is wasting, since this is what the world, and especially the USA, is doing. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 03:16
Rhyme delisle@max-net.com>(delisle@max-net.com): - Thanks to Ted Butler for the most recent short figures.They are astounding!...and yes Auric I do remember August '82 .Most markets
,I think ,are hated at major bottoms.The cake has been ate by the shorts
and now it's time for the borrowers to take a trip to the bakery ...
the sooner the better. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 02:33
6pak USofA @ The cross of gold>(USofA @ The cross of gold): - Vieserre June 29 @ 22:11 Excellent post, and yes, a good deal to consider
in return. Enjoyed your thoughts, and yes, Americans are a resourceful
people.
I do not accept at face value, the stated facts as presented, by these
referenced agencies. History, has value, and I will reference such.
Truth is difficult to come by, but, a balance is possible, with the use
of reasoning. This is my take on the subject.
By the turn of the century the United States had become the leading
industrial nation of the world, manufacturing almost twice as much as
Great Britain, its nearest rival. The value of its manufacturing products
came to more than eleven billion dollars a year. The number of its
workers in industry had increased from 1,310,000 in 1860 to 4,713,000 in
1900 while 14,000,000 immigrants were pouring into the country as the
population increased from 31,443,321 to 75,994,575.
It was this huge national plant that had come under the domination of a
small financial oligarchy whose members controlled the banks as well as
industry and who knew the power of unity.
With this giant centralization, this increasing merger of bank and
industrial capital into monopoly capital, something new came into
American life. So colossal was the capital gathered together that it
was becoming much more profitable to reinvest it in colonial areas.
Monopoly's plant at home had grown too large, constantly over-producing
and piling up surpluses which the American people, millions of whom were
hungry and ragged enough, could not buy. Monopoly had grown to such
gigantic size, spawned such mammoth profits that it had to expand or die,
reinvest or wither.
The export of capital and the sale of surpluses abroad had become a
necessity. Statesmen, always sensitive to the needs of their more
prominent constituents, began to speak of it being the will of
Almighty God that America should bring the blessings of civilization
to the benighted inhabitants of the Caribbean, the Pacific, Latin
America, and everywhere else that the heathen dwelled in darkness. God
was telling the American people, so Senator Beveridge of Indiana declared
Ye have been faithful over a few things; I will make you ruler over
many things
The common people were bitter and their bitterness was enough to make
even Morgan tremble. Laboring America could no longer be crucified upon
a cross of Gold. There were some millions who felt that in fact they
were being nailed to Wall Street's golden cross by such *phenomena* as
*unemployment* and *mortgages.*
Again there was a pentecostal uprising. A fury seemed to blaze across
the land which the Republicans worked to extinguish by a huge campaign
fund of close to 16 million dollars, as well as threats of universal
foreclosure of mortgages and closing of factories if Bryan was elected
over their candidate. McKinley 7,035,638 Bryan 6,467,946
Sooooo, the debts, are a tool, designed, and effective. Deflation, is
the next phase, and it will clear the deck for future expansion.
I expect, many Americans, do not want deflation or inflation, but, that
is not the choice of the American people. Why would anyone want to
inflict such hardship, caused by either ? Gold, is a nice balance,
between the madness of inflation, and pain of deflation.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:48
Eldorado @G'nite>(@G'nite): - Time to watch a movie on the backside of my eyelids.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:42
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Scott -- Markets tend to drift lower into a holiday as many exit their positions. Of course, if they are covering short postions... But we'll see. Anything major will probably not happen until after the 4th of July holiday unless it happens 'over there'. I'll play it by the day.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:31
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Ron -- Yes. I find it helpful to view it in that 'light'. It all seems to add up in that direction.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:29
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - I would expect all the action to occur towards the end of the week. Say around Thursday or Friday.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:25
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Don't forget the Hong Kong three day holiday!!!!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:25
Ron thinking about it>(thinking about it): - Eldorado: What'll they call it? When we had inflation and stagnation, it was called stagflation. But what'll they call simultaneous inflation and deflation? InDeGestion? Actually, it kinda sounds like a nova: The core implodes while the outer shell is blown off. Was that you talking about novae a few weeks ago?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:22
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - I'm expecting a pretty nice range Monday in the gold. Perhaps 7 or 8 bucks from low to high. Tuesday is currently a wait-and-see.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:20
Lan Man From Friday June 27, 1997>(From Friday June 27, 1997): - COMEX gold warehouse stocks dropped by 8,337 ounces to 844,994 ounces.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 01:08
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Inflation/Delation! How about liberal doses of both? Right now we see deflation in most sectors while we see inflation in the paper sectors. That'll change as the deflation creeps forward towards the core and the government then finds it must 'compensate'. Too little and way too late, not that they know how to 'push a string' either. They are between a rock and a hard place anyway. The system is running out of credit-worthy borrowers. The same ones who are still repaying their monthly debts and removing currency from circulation by doing so. How else does money get into circulation but through consumer borrowing and/or government spending? The government will simply have to do more spending. There goes the so-called 'balanced budget' plan. But even at that, the credit-worthiness of the consumers will take years to repair. We'll see less and less goods being purchased that'll also cost more and more in terms of the dollars' purchasing power as the government attempts a massive reflation. Just think what the paper holders will be doing? This country is very near the time of both massive monetary implosion ( deflation ) and explosion ( massive inflation ) ! What a concept!
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 00:47
Ron Dow>(Dow): - Auric: It's sobering to think that the Dow was 740 in 1982. It seems like only yesterday. Seven hundred forty is barely twice where the Dow was in 1929. And now the Dow is TEN times greater than it was in 1982, a growth rate about 64 times greater than during the 53 years from 1929-1982! I wonder if it really could happen again?
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 00:22
Auric @Rock vs. Paper>(@Rock vs. Paper): -
Anyone remember the Dow in 1982? In the Spring and Summer of that year, there was as much pessimism on the stock market as there is on gold now. The Dow went from about 740 to about 840 in a week during August '82. It hit over 1000 within 3 or 4 months. I believe we are in a similar situation in the Summer of 1997 with respect to gold. It won't happen in exacly the same way, to be sure, but the gains will be just as rewarding--IMHO of course. - Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 00:08
Ron @the bash>(@the bash): - Greenie: Seriously, aren't certain Board meetings open to the public by law? I think it's a great idea: meet at a Friday Board meeting, kick around on Saturday.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 00:05
ezau swami@sag.tar>(swami@sag.tar): - PANDA@1946: The yahoo site has expired.
- Date: Mon Jun 30 1997 00:00
Kitcoites @ The BASH>(@ The BASH): -
Alan Greenspan: Most gracious of you, sir. We will give careful consideration to your generous offer. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:59
Lan Man @Christine DimWhitman>(@Christine DimWhitman): - N.J. Bonds = Speculative Extortion Futures
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:56
ark salted@core>(salted@core): - G.S. Cole: Thanks for the help and insight re South African
gold stocks. I'm now tending to think it would be wise to
wait until a clear gold up trend has started to establish
a small percentage exposure in SA golds. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:37
Este to Ron>(to Ron): - Thanks for posting the Dalai Lama's comments on the Chinese take over of Hong Kong ( Dalai lama warns of Chinese aggression ) . His opinion on this matter should be given careful consideration. The wisdom of this man is quite remarkable. His acceptance speech for the Nobel Prize is probably the most extraordinary speech of this century and is indeed timeless.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:26
Ron waiting>(waiting): - Can't wait for the mkts to open tomorrow. Still, the anticipation has been much better than the event lately. Good thing we don't have five day weekends -- I'd be in a lather by Monday morning. Been eyeing Lind's round turn price of seven bucks per option on 100 or more options if they have two or more months 'til expiry and have premiums that are less than $26. Tempting. But the number 100 sure gives me pause. Nevertheless, if you were willing to sustain the losses for several years . . .
We must remember that goldbugs are not counting on a meteor striking the earth or anything like it. The probability of things like that happening is way too small. Instead, we are dealing with the conditional probability that something untoward will happen within the next year or two GIVEN THAT the Dow is absurdly overvalued, AND that a weighty Sword of Debt hangs over our heads by the barest of threads, AND that a number of the USAs potential adversaries seem to have cranked up the rhetoric to alarming levels in the last year or so. THAT probability is not so small; and if your risk tolerance is moderate to great, then I think gold isn't at all an unreasonable gamble at this point. But we should be alert, and if the conditions change, so should our thinking on gold.
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
I was never ruined but twice: once when I lost a lawsuit, and once when I won one.
Voltaire ( 1694-1778 )
Insanity: a perfectly rational adjustment to the insane world.
R.D. Laing
I don't really trust a sane person.
Pro football lineman Lyle Alzado
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:14
Vieserre home>(home): -
PANDA: I generally agree, I have been taught the same way, and I still act accordingly. But I believe, most people, although they may not think about it in these terms, spend on goods and are investing in the stock market, rather than save regardless of a savings rate, because they have been conditioned to not trust the dollar to retain its value for their retirement years. And they are concerned about this. And they are willing to take risks to preserve a sought after retirement. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:09
panda @zzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzz): - SPX and NDX being run up tonight on the Globex. Hmmmm...
Good night all, and don't do anything silly, like short this bull, yet.. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:06
GFD Tight Shorts>(Tight Shorts): - Ted Butler: Your Sat 23:20 post is VERY interesting. It would seem that there has been limitless resources for the shorts both on and off market and yet, as you point out, a doubling of short positions on the comex is only good for another 7 dollars on the downside. Short of auctioning off fort knox I can't think of much more that this market could throw at gold. Long dated slightly out of the money gold options will look brilliant by the end of the year.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:04
APH \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\>(\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\): - GVC - This site has Gann and E-Wave analysis along with charts.
http://www.astroecon.com/open.html
I live in a suburb of Chicago. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:02
panda @>(@): - Vieserre -- I made one small mistake in my previous post. I have not grown up. This is evidenced by 'speculation' in precious metals. :- ) )
D.A. -- Margin is a good thing! Or was it, Greed is good! I like that part about the bonds being floated without a guarantee of repayment! The bond insurers guarantee it! :- ) ) - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 23:00
Alan Greenspan @ Kitco Bash>(@ Kitco Bash): - Is our central bank central enough for Kitco? You all could join us at the Federal Reserve FOMC August meeting.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:56
Puetz @ Inflation/Deflation>(@ Inflation/Deflation): - Mike Sheller: Donald's assessment accurately portrays the 1930s. Excess reserves in the banking system continually grew throughout the 1930s. In fact, excess reserves nearly DOUBLED each year ( from the previous year ) from 1931 though 1935 -- a phenominal growth rate. The Fed pumped and pumped, but nothing happened. It is a serious mistake to assume the Fed and the federal government control monetary affairs in their entirety. The fact is, banks refused to lend the funds provided by the Fed because they could not find qualified borrowers. The case for a deflation in the late 1990s hinges on the same type of situation. The rising bankruptcy rate suggests their are fewer qualified new borrowers. The first significant business downturn ( which will occur, and possibly has already started as declining retail sales suggest ) will accelerate these deflationary pressures. )
Deflation can only occur after inflation has occurred. Deflation is the unwinding of credit. Deflation begins when the most credit-worthy borrowers reach their credit limits. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:55
panda @>(@): - Vieserre -- I was taught to save money by my parents. I never understood why people invested money. Then I grew up. I still didn't understand why people invested money. Then little things came along, like cars, houses, women who want your money ( girlfriends, wives, ex-wives, etc. ) , and then I understood inflation! A great light shone from above, and it told me the Dollar I earned today would buy me less in the future ( not withstanding girlfriends, wives, ex-wives, etc. ) ! Then it became clear to me! I must invest! For no other reason than to preserve what I have! Now, I'm being a little silly/humorous, but the analogy holds.
People in the main, don't fully comprehend why they are investing. The stock mania, the real estate mania of the '80s, and everything back to the tulip mania lend credence to this. It is part greed and part fear. Everybody wants to be comfortable in retirement, if not rich. We all can't be rich. So the question becomes why are they investing? The answer is, INFLATION. Just look at the IRA or 401K ads. If you want to have a blah blah blah retirement you need to grow your money at blah blah rate. Implied in this reasoning is the acceptance of chronic inflation. Once the government numbers finally show some inflation, the current inflation hedge of choice, stocks, will not look so good. I have to admit, one hell of a good sales job is being done here.
If there were no chronic low level of inflation, then why couldn't I put aside some small amount of money on a regular basis in a relatively low risk investment and achieve the same results? Wow, now there's a concept! Honest money! :- ) ) - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:50
Auric @The Party of the First Part>(@The Party of the First Part): -
Nailz-Hell yes. Let's have the bash in Cape Breton! - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:48
Vieserre home>(home): - D.A. Like any other gambling arena, the more participants that enter the market and the more they contribute, the greater the inherent volitility of the market and the greater the risk. This volitility is currently being evidenced in the DOW.
With this in mind, it has always been my understanding that, particularly when investing pension funds, that a fiduciary handling the account must abide by the prudent man rule.
Therefore, can you explain how the Government of New Jersey can enter the stock market at this stage on margin without having liability for any loss resulting therefrom.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:43
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Anyone know the currrent gold spot price, kitco is not updating as usual. You think they might try and fix it some year.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:40
nailz KITCO BASH>(KITCO BASH): - AURIC and ALL.....Haven't commented, but have watched the buzz about a bash....I think it would be a great idea...When we are sure there is a bull, all try to meet in ONE central location.....I would really enjoy meeting some of you....
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:35
Puetz @ fight>(@ fight): - Tort: Tyson-Holifieid were trying to compete and gain back lost popularity taken over by the World Wrestling Federation!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:31
D.A. re.new.jersey>(re.new.jersey): - All:
Tomorrow begins New Jersey's entrance into stock market investing on margin. The proceeds of their 2.75 billion dollar unsecured bond offering will be transfered into the pension system and 'invested' appropriately. This stroke of genius will probably end the presidential hopes of Governor Whitman. If the stock market goes higher over the next two years the Dems will be hard to beat. If the market goes to hell and with it the economy she will have a tough time answering the questions relating to prudent financial stewardship as her speculation gets hammered. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:30
Auric Kitco Bash>(Kitco Bash): -
Just thinking out loud here. When gold gets to, say, $450 to $500, I Think a party is in order. Perhaps 2 or 3 regional gatherings. Indianapolis could host a gathering. Maybe Toronto and Denver or Albequerque also. During the party a big screen TV could be hooked into this forum, with a keyboard for everyone to post. Might be fun. What do ya think? - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:16
Ron in Dalai Defend Mode>(in Dalai Defend Mode): - Mike Sheller: You no like the Dalai Lama? Nobel Peace Prize winner and all? If anyone should know Beijing's soul, it's the Lama man.
I love it. Four thousand elite storm troopers moving into Hong Kong tomorrow with heavy weapons and the West's liberal press think it's a big wonderful party! Did 'ya catch the piece about the sensitivity training that was given to the troops? -- Can you show me your papers? and What you doing here? etc.
Saw recently that that Liberal mouthpiece Anthony Lewis predicted Pol Pot would be a wonderful change for Cambodia back when that horrible man, traditional Cambodian Prince Norodom Sihounok ( sp? ) , sat on the throne . . . Another case of liberal foot bone connected to the mouth bone . . . AFAIK, the man has never apologized for it, nor in any way retracted his support for the Devil himself. And apologize he should, given his high profile and influence. Guess he thinks it was a good thing to depopulate half of the country, afterall.
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Laziness is nothing more than the habit of resting before you get tired.
Jules Renard ( 1864-1910 )
I don't want to wrap myself in the flag, because I'm afraid I'll get burned.
former Chief Justice Warren Burger
I grew up to have my father's looks - my fathers speech patterns -
my father's posture - my father's walk - my father's opinions and
my mother's contempt for my father.
Jules Feiffer
You can convince anyone of anything if you just push it at them 100%
of the time. They may not believe it completely, but they will still use
it to form opinions, especially if they have nothing else to draw on.
- Charles Manson
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*% - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:14
Donald @Home(last post)>(@Home(last post)): - WW: If things don't work out in Havana you can swim back to Key West, only 90 miles, and fewer sharks than Wall Street. You should be safe.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:11
Vieserre Inflation/deflation USA>(Inflation/deflation USA): - 6PAK: You piqued my interest by your comments on the Gold Standard and
deflation/inflation issues. Here is something to consider in return.
In the United States, the 28% year over year increase in bankruptcy is attributed to that until recently, despite the expanding economy, wage increases have not kept up and people are over-extended in debt. I do not know whether this is due to a prolific promotion of credit cards, because of greater confidence in the economy or otherwise.
``What has been particular about this recovery is that it has been accompanied by almost no increase in wages on average,'' said James Galbraith, economics professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. ``Only in the last year or so has there been any growth in wages. As a result, a disproportionate amount of the increase in spending in the consumer sector has been financed by increasing debt.''
But the flip side of this, other economists contend, this spending is not necessary bad since consumer spending is two-thirds of gross domestic product. If people stop spending money there is the danger that the economy will stall out.''
Certainly, as evidenced by the CPI, there has been deflation in prices. But a lot of this is attributed to the low costs of imported goods. Domestic goods, in comparison, have a much higher relative inflation rate. With the current employment rate being the highest since summer of 89, this encourages inflation and not deflation. The most pressing
concern of the IMF and BIS, as well as many domestic economists, is that inflationary pressure in the US may soon prove more difficult to tame and the expansion may end abruptly.
And I think this is where the rub is. Because if inflation surfaces and the FED over-applies the brakes, then there is indeed a danger of a recession which will not only affect this country but a global economy on which by credit and market interest it so importantly depends upon. But until these inflationary pressures manifest themselves and the FED takes such action, I would not expect any serious deflationary consequences to this economy which continues to respond to favorable global markets. In addition, unfortunately, we as a nation since the separation from the gold standard, rather than save, have tended to overspend in view of the declining and unstable irredeemable currency. And I would expect this spending trend, by continued expansion of credit or otherwise, to continue to drive the economy.
Eventually this expansion of debt in the US both as a consequence of a dollar based on a “promise to pay” and its surrogate “bond” may have to be accounted for. And although sound arguments may be raised by you, Steve and others that this means a drastic deflation with dire consequences, absent any run on the dollar, I am not willing to concede that this is imminent or will take place in the foreseeable future. Americans are a resourceful people. But what I am willing to concede is that the longer it continues without steps to counteract it, the greater the risk.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:08
nailz AG STILL HAS TIME.....>(AG STILL HAS TIME.....): - MIKE SHELLER..........Unless a problem arises in the East ( which it could in a minute ) that could casue an immediate problem, AG still has the chance to go home a hero....The tight fisted individual who fought for and gained the most power of any FED chairman in history....One who stood up and was counted to help solve monetary problems of the world ( not just US ) . I think he wants to preserve that image and just might choose to go home rather than be accused of helping cause a crisis.... He is getting older, he has a new wife, and he disagrees with the politics of Slick Willie. He may want to retire. Who could blame him
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:03
Front To IDT PANDA and IDT(again)>(To IDT PANDA and IDT(again)): -
IDT: You forgot one thing that remains the same about the unions and CUBA trips for WW. We, the taxpayers of Canada are footing the freebie that WW night accept from his NDP cousins. Does he really believe that they will foot the bill for him. Ask TED about the NDP in Cape Breton. Ask them where they're getting the monies for the trips? From the NDP party means from the Canadian taxpayer since we give the political parties tax free travel allowances. More pigs to the trough? Won't be any room left for the Reformers pretty soon. Maybe we'd better write Mr. Manning and get him to bring it up in parliament that the NDP party faithful are hauling Americans free of charge to CUBA for vacations on taxpayer money. That should shake the tree a little eh!
PANDA: I think you did the honourable thing by going to help that poor lady! Of course, NailZ sounds like he would have held your jacket for you as you saved her. What a saint!
IDT: Don't use worms. Could use a better pair of binoculars though! - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 22:01
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER: Reading from a reference book...During the 1931-1932 period the Fed added 195 million in reserves to the banking system. In spite of that effort reserves dropped by 302 million. People were pulling their money out faster than the Fed could ( or would ) inject it.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:58
nailz RUBIN....>(RUBIN....): - IDT.....It was either a week past today or two weeks past today there was an article in the papers in NY where he and his wife did an interview. She has never moved to DC and hates the place with a passion...She likes NY and both hinted that something to give him more time at home was going to happen.... I think it is obvious that he likes the power and has plenty of it in Slick Willie's cabinet. Who else can go head to head with AG and win on a financial matter? He alone, so far as I can tell.
Which force will win Power and Slick Willie or NY, home and wife ? I think power until he sees smoke from the flames of the US economy. Then gone home with great fanfare. Hints are that he may even change posts...AGAIN !!!! - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:40
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - WW: I'm sure you're mistaken about that trip to Cuba. Since when would socialist defenders of the working man agree to accept perks. Seriously, its interesting in that it has come full circle. The mob goes to Cuba for fun and gambling. Communists throw them out. Mob gets into unions. Unions go to Cuba for fun and gambling. The only thing that doesn't change is human nature.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:40
Mike Sheller Fed Up>(Fed Up): - PUETZ ( 17:39 ) : Fear predominated because the Fed did nothing to halt the deflation of the 30's. Indeed, the body set up to smooth out the bumps in the nation's monetary cycles precipitated the unchecked boom in stox that lead to inevitable collapse. Then they made things worse by allowing the money stock to contract by ONE THIRD. Milton Friedman wrote in A Monetary History of the United States that he thought the Fed did not understand the necessity of keeping the monetary aggregates from shrinking so severely. Either that or they were plain incompetent. I would have thought that Alan Greenspan was more sagacious than to be a party to the current paper asset inflation. Doubtless the political pressure on him is enormous, but I must believe of all these characters this man knows better. I do not wish to be unduly harsh with him, but perhaps he missed an opportunity to be a true hero in the manner of a character in an Ayn Rand novel, instead of exposing himself to the danger of being remembered as just another government functionary at best, or a tragic bungler at worst.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:35
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - WDL: I liked Australian producer Gutnick's comment last week that gold will rebound when gold bears get bored shorting the metal in the face of constant demand from Asia. Supposedly, the bears'll give up on it around $335 and move on to another commodity. Then gold will rebound very nicely. He didn't make it clear, however, why he thought bears will not come back to gold if it recovers. So I think goldbugs will have to be quick on their feet under this scenario and not try to be goldpigs -- unless other compelling reasons happen to coincide: a sharp correction in the Dow, inflation ( deflation? ) , war . . .
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:32
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - Nailz: Wasn't Rubin talking about quiting the Treasury a while back. I think it was early in Clinton's 2nd term. He would have more to preserve than his reputation. I presume that his fortune is in some form of blind trust and he also has some commitment to his former company which I believe is Goldman and Sachs. On the other hand, some have argued here that Rubin hired Clinton and not the other way around. Perhaps it would Clinton that would go first and not Rubin and Greenspan.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:30
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Looks like a little gold and silver rally in the east. I was just curious if any of you wasted the time and money to watch the Tyson fight. Fortunately I did not. Was it as disgusting as the news reports would indicate? I'm thinking that instead of kick-boxing, they ought to form a new competition called bite-boxing.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:28
fidel... habana cuba>(habana cuba): - Senor WW: If you do not take advantage of a visit to my ISLA ENCANTADA, you will regret it to your last day on earth.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:19
nailz PANDA>(PANDA): - PANDA....Am glad to see that you have seen the error of your ways and repented. If ever you feel the need to ogle pretty young ladies again, call the support group at 555-4732. If you find yourself with more than you can watch at one time, call me at 555-1217......THANKS for the info on the bank action.....
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:16
George s. Cole end of the gold bear?>(end of the gold bear?): - WDL: A war will not be required to end this gold bear. A steep decline in the stock market will suffice quite nicely thank you. Not a 10% correction that is quickly reversed, but a crash or bear market that knocks prices down at least 20% with no quick recovery.. I expect such a decline to commence in August.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:09
George s. Cole The fear factor>(The fear factor): - SHORTBULL: Perhaps I have misinterpreted your trading strategy. I thought you are always a short-termer. But if that is just a function of the gold bear, and you are able to switch strategies when the gold bull begins, then my hat is off to you.
On the fear factor take this to heart. When average people are fearful re: their jobs, then capital will be confident and gold prices low relative to equities. But when average people grow confident capital will grow fearful and gold will do much better.
Average people still fearful today ( though less so ) and capital is as confident as it has ever been in this country. That ( not CB manipulation ) is the fundamental reason behind this devastating gold bear. It's all about to change though; so take heart gold investors.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:05
Paul havanna banana>(havanna banana): - WW...take the risk and take the trip. Please report back to us your findings.
My Mom grew up there before El Beardo took over. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 21:05
Mike Sheller the ad-man cometh>(the ad-man cometh): - WW: Just had a thought - how about some posts ( if at all possible, permissable, etc ) FROM Cuba! Don't you just love it?! Our man in Havana on the spot. I promise I will do the same from the PRC when I visit Shanghai next year or so.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:59
Mike Sheller Hello Dalai>(Hello Dalai): - That Dalai Lama. How in the hell does he do it? Making those incredibly sage predictions? WW: I vote you go to Havana. I know I give you a hard time now and then 'cause I'm just to the right of Barry Goldwater, and a little toward the left of Ayn Rand. But, seriously, life is too short, man - you're a person who is vitally interested in the world and the affairs of humanity. Don't waste the opportunity. Go and see for yourself what so many others merely chatter about. And DON'T worry how the trip will affect your public standing, etc. Take it from the ol' astrologer. You have my best wishes for a great trip, and I would be happy to hear ( or read ) your observations on Kitco. Bien Viaje!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:50
Vieserre home>(home): - 6pak: I wish you to know that I appreciate your thoughtful and informative posts. I have learned a lot about Canada through them. I hope you will continue.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:44
Ron Fade a Tyrant Every Time>(Fade a Tyrant Every Time): - Sunday June 29 8:02 AM EDT
Dalai lama warns of Chinese aggression
HONG KONG, June 29 ( UPI ) _ The dalai lama has predicted Chinese human rights violations after Beijing gains control of Hong Kong on July 1.
In a 15-page statement, the office of Tibet's spiritual leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner predicts China will ``violate human rights and would trample democracy'' once it regains authority over Hong Kong.
The statement said, ``In Hong Kong, human rights and democracy will be the first casualty of reunification with China.''
The news of the statement was carried on the front page of Sunday's edition of the Hong Kong Standard.
Chinese rulers could not be trusted, the statement warned, to keep their promises to ensure a high degree of autonomy in Hong Kong. It says, ``One can't help wondering if China can be trusted to adhere to any agreement which does not serve its purpose.''
The dalai lama, long an opponent of China and its policies, accuses Beijing of violating a 1951 accord which promised the same one-country, two-system formula for Tibet as is being announced for Hong Kong.
He was only 14 when newly victorious Chinese Communist troops arrived in Tibet to reclaim control over the isolated region, which had enjoyed de facto independence since the fall of the Ching dynasty in 1911.
The dalai lama assumed full political power, but was unable to exercise it as the Chinese began trying to assimilate Tibet into China.
Push came to shove in March 1959 and Tibetan tribesmen staged an armed revolt that was crushed by the Chinese in three days. The dalai lama and 100,000 followers escaped through the Himalayas on horse, mule and foot. He eventually established his headquarters in Dharmsala, a northern Indian town 100 miles from the Chinese border and 900 miles from the Tibetan capital of Lhasa. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:42
Evander Holyfield @Las Vegas>(@Las Vegas): -
Huh? - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:32
Short Bull I empathize with you Savage>(I empathize with you Savage): - Early this year I decided I was not going to be a trader...but an
investor. I had a substantial long position in the Rydex Precious
Metals fund and for several weeks, was losing $15,000 to $20,000. When
I got back to a $5,000 loss I chucked the position, only to see a rally
in the XAU finally hit my 122 target where I would have made a few
thousand. From that experience I decided to be a trader and not an
investor. Getting out at the XAU 114.90 level, I was determined to
get back in the XAU at lower prices. One can take their loss on
strength, like I did at the XAU 114.90 level, as long as I get long
again under that level. Well, with the current weakness I will be
aggressively buying in the low 90's of the XAU because I still have
a couple thousand to get back of the $5,000 loss I took earlier in
the XAU trade I held on too long on...then did not hold on long enough
to get out at a profit... - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:32
panda @reprise II>(@reprise II): - nailz -- I've gone to confession and repented!
Here's the story. Let's see 336tons -5.5 tons = 330.5 tons, where did it go?
Tuesday June 24 6:56 PM EDT
Holocaust victims won't get last looted Nazi gold
By Michael Shields
GENEVA ( Reuter ) - European central banks, not individual Holocaust victims, will get the last of the Nazi gold still resting in Western vaults, officials said Tuesday.
But they said individual countries could use it compensate victims to show their concern that gold from the jewelry, even the teeth, of death camp prisoners may have been mixed in with the Nazis' World War II loot from central banks in occupied countries.
The Tripartite Gold Commission, set up in 1946 by Britain, France and the United States to return looted gold reserves to European central banks, still controls 5.5 metric tons of the 336 metric tons it started out with.
``The gold that remains will be paid to ( claimant ) states,'' French Under-Secretary of Economic and Financial Affairs Michel Filhol told a conference on restitution of Jewish property sponsored by the Los Angeles-based Simon Wiesenthal Center.
``It is up to these states to recover the gold and shoulder their responsibility .... They will have to decide what they are going to do with the remainder.''
But he suggested Holocaust victims would not be left empty-handed.
``One may guess that there will be something ( done ) within a national framework because we think we have to do something, but this is not excluding any other initiative on this point we could take,'' Filhol told reporters.
Ten countries -- Albania, Austria, Belgium, the former Czechoslvakia, Luxembourg, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and former Yugoslavia -- have claims on the gold, which is being held by the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
U.S. officials would like to see the gold used to create a compensation fund for Holocaust survivors.
The three administering governments have agreed to freeze the gold while they review new evidence that some of it came from the wedding rings, watches and dental work of people sent to Nazi extermination camps.
Emrys Davies, a former British diplomat who now serves as secretary general of the Brussels-based Tripartite Commission, said the panel had been unjustly accused of ignoring Holocaust victims.
The commission's mandate expressly limited it to returning monetary gold, stocks held on the books of claimant countries as official gold reserves, to central banks in proportion of their claims to the total recovered.
He took his job in 1995 on the understanding the commission would wrap up its work within a few months.
``My guess now is that it is still going to be just a few months, one way or another,'' he said.
Filhol said the commission's archives should be opened, as some Jewish groups have urged, only after all the gold is returned. Partial publication now would disrupt the panel's work and could be counterproductive, he said.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:21
6pak Inflation/Deflation @ Canada>(Inflation/Deflation @ Canada): - The Canadian dollar was freely convertible into GOLD at the 1914 price
of $20.67 per Troy ounce from July 01 1926 until the winter of 1928-9.
Canada was thus, formally and for a short time, on the GOLD standard.
When Gold flowed into the Department of Finance, new Domminion notes
flowed out into vaults of the banks and, to a limited extent, into the
hands of the public. ( Bank of Canada created 1935 )
In the popular consciousness of North America, the great event of the
late 1920's is the boom and crash of Wall Street stock market. In Canada
too, there was a boom and a slump on the stock exchange. The same forces
were present in both countries -- buoyant profits in many firms, credit
that was easy and cheap in relation to expected capital gains, and a
feeling that things would go on getting better, indefinitely, perhaps at
a faster pace than before.
Business investment strode on upward, so that for many firms 1929 really
was a banner year. Hence, perhaps, the exuberance which gave rise to the
splendid stock market performance. When it is remembered that the prices
of ordinary goods and services were tending to fall, this performance
is even more extraordinary; in real terms, enormous gains were made by
those who bought stocks early in the game-- and who sold out in time.
Canada's businesses, found it comparatively easy to sell new common
stocks, whether to finance a new plant or buy some other company,
especially in 1928. They took advantage of the Great Bull Market to float
unprecedentedly large issues of new common stocks.
University of Toronto economist ( Gilbert Jackson ) pointed out that in
the Great Bull Market prices had become ridiculously high in relation to
dividends, prospective yields, or anything else. Calling the collapse a
return to sanity he foresaw that general business would emerge unscathed.
In most cases, those who went on relief in the cities had to prove that
the alternative was starvation. Most Canadians seemed to accept that the
destitute deserved no more than the basics, even though it had become
impossible to believe that the unemployed had chosen their own fate.
In Ontario, Mitch Hepburn's Reformist Liberal government threatened to
cut off all aid to cities which gave relief beyond the maximum which the
province had established.
Yes, 1997, will in fact establish another deflation, it is here at the
present time, considering, the attacks on welfare, and the unemployed.
Also, consider the fear factor, of job security, and levels of stress.
There must be TA charts, to calculate fear factor.?
This is my take, on Inflation/Deflation, as seen from the street level. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:18
Tortfeasor Joke of the evening>(Joke of the evening): - Before the markets get going for the evening I wanted to post a little sometime to help avoid any of you jumping our your basement windows and attempting suicide if the metals markets continue in their sour vein.
A seaman meets a pirate in a bar, and they take turns telling of their
adventures on the seas. The seaman notes that the pirate has a peg-leg,
hook, and an eye patch. The seaman asks, So, how did you end up with the peg-leg? The pirate replies, We were in a storm at sea, and I was swept overboard into a school of sharks. Just as my men were pulling me out, a shark bit my leg off. Shark went by the name of Mike Tyson Wow! said the seaman. What about your hook? Well..., replied the pirate, We were boarding an enemy ship and were battling the other sailors with swords. One of the enemy cut my hand off. Incredible! remarked the seaman. How did you get the eye patch? A seagull dropping fell into my eye, replied the pirate. You lost your eye to a seagull dropping? the sailor asked incredulously. Well..., said the pirate, ..it was my first day with the hook. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:15
Savage @response>(@response): - SHORT BULL: re your 19:40...You have a point about your ability to buy that may not have been there if you had been stubbornly long ( as I have ) . I'll admit that I've been hurt and am bleeding still ( my wife doesn't even want to hear the G word ) . Still...it ain't over till it's over... ( what famous baseball word wizard said that? )
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:15
WDL @discouraged>(@discouraged): - GROUP: Have been a goldbug for many years...have become quite discouraged about gold's prospects over last several months...HAVE THE RULES CHANGED? Are we deluding ourselves? I've come to think ( heaven forbid! ) that the only way gold can ever really spike again is if war breaks out! Still believe an excellent long-term play is oil stocks...
I'm talking about outstanding potential retirement income. Any Comments?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:14
WW @New England @No Clinton Fan>(@New England @No Clinton Fan): - While I dont like Clinton I do support his this week proposal to have private media provide free access to candidates to take money and influence out of the equation.. One cheer for Clinton finally standing up against money for freedom!!
Should I take the chance and the free trip to Havanna via Toronto with my cuz or stay put/ what say yee citizens of this site? Rum, cigars, beaches, impeccable sun and private gambling at Veradero Beach or take no risk and sweat it out up here. What is the vote?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:12
Short Bull @ posting to help the novice traders...and others.>(@ posting to help the novice traders...and others.): - I'm through posting for now...I hope I did not come across as a
pompous ass but I just wanted to be a help. Well, gotta go. Will
post occasionally next week when I see something interesting... - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:04
Short Bull @ when you want to buy calls....SELL PUTS!!!!>(@ when you want to buy calls....SELL PUTS!!!!): - Let time decay work for you, not against you. Only the gold price
is manipulated. I stay away from that as long as central banks control
gold prices. But selling Silver puts should be a very good trade which
I plan to start agressively doing next week. I expect silver to bottom
within the next 20 to 30 cents and will look to sell 4.50 and lower
strike silver puts and will collect the premiums of time decay.
I am gone! Busy getting ready for next week...bye bye!!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 20:03
nailz TO PANDA......>(TO PANDA......): - Panda.....2 comments ....1 ) I would like to see the story on CB purchases of gold....and.....2 ) You reprobate !!!!! How dare you look at the sweet young morsels who choose to receive fresh air on their skin. You are a poor influence on the rest of us !!!!! And try to rescue one !!!! I bet you are practiced up on CPR just in case
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:59
Short Bull@ BUY PLATINUM or SILVER Buy the Strong Relative Performers in any group>(Buy the Strong Relative Performers in any group): - Platinum recently approached $500 and has corrected substantially. I
expect to buy Platinum under $400 and will continue to buy Platinum
down to the $370 level if we get that cheap. Then when gold bottoms
and goes to $370 or so, Platinum should be at $450 or $500 or higher.
Silver can be bought on dips and money is there to be made with 10 to
20 cent rallies. Selling silver puts is also a possibility.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:52
Short Bull @ going long in gold is a counter-trend trade...>(@ going long in gold is a counter-trend trade...): - ...Counter-trend TRADE...with trade being the operative word. Now, with further weakness there will be a point where we could get so
oversold...with bearishness so pervasive, with short positions so
great, with gold bulls so discouraged, that we might, no, we will
yes WILL make a short-term bottom...and rally back to current levels,
and maybe another $10 or even $20 above current levels. But we are
not quite there yet and for anyone to advise long positions in Comex
metal for anything but a scalp trade, has been and continues to be..
pure heresy.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:51
Mike Sheller Ay que pena>(Ay que pena): - WW: Tell your cousins that there is no such thing as a socialist market economy. There is either a market economy ( as in free ) or there ain't.
A Socialist market economy is as much an oxymoron as la bebida Cuba Libre. If you ever get to Havana, have one on me. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:50
panda @reprise not!>(@reprise not!): - I see that particular story has expired! Well, it still lives in some dark recesses. If anyone is interested, I will attempt to find it.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:49
Auric @home>(@home): -
Hi Short Bull: Do you have a price target in mind for a low in gold? Two weeks, eh? I can live with that! - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:46
panda @reprise>(@reprise): - Lan Man -- I know one thing, somebody wants the gold, all the gold. That somebody is turning out to be the Central Bankers. I've posted this story before, so I'm beating a dead horse here, but it is interesting to follow the money.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/24/z0009_1413.html
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:46
Cmax inflation or deflation>(inflation or deflation): - All:
Re: inflation or deflation of real estate, and it's subsequent effect on mortgagees......
Federal debt default inevitable
I don't think deflation will be a medium term real estate scenario.
Short term, deflation is coming about due to excessive supply, partially caused by large defaults, with much more to come.
But this temporary situation should change, as the feds MUST print mountains of paper to stem the tide of debt default very soon.....
........and this will be very inflationary in absolute numbers.
As in all hyperinflation societies, those who were HEAVILY leveraged or loaded with real estate debt.....came out like bandits. ( Providing of course that they had the economic capacity to service their mortgages in the lean times ) . As the feds MUST eventually print ( this time around ) , logic would dictate the opposite of what most gold bugs are saying as to the necessity of debt reduction. Debt reduction is only worthwhile in a deflationary environ, but deflation will be just a fleeting moment, compared to what the feds MUST do eventually.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:40
Short Bull @ ready to turn into a long-term trader when...>(@ ready to turn into a long-term trader when...): - ....when there is an extreme low made, and later when we finally
start to break long-term downtrend lines...I will become a BIG
GOLBUG, a committed long-term player....but until then...I trade,
in and out, keeping my powder dry. Mr. Cole says I will miss the
big move...on the contrary, I will be uniquely able to take advantage
of the big move, as I am not carrying carnage from losing long contracts. Comments? I have to go now...have to plot my strategy
to make money over the next two weeks, from the long side of the
stock market, a bull market that keeps going higher for at least
2 more weeks hopefully, when it should top and gold should finally
bottom. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:38
panda @>(@): - Savage -- If gold goes up over $340, I'm gonna throw that golden triangle off my chart! rhyme, you are correct in observing that the breakout has taken toooooo long, and is probably invalid. The alternative is a continuation pattern. Psychologically, this would be downer, but better than the alternative. Of course, the palladium scenario could happen. Who knows, how many mines have to go on 'care and maintenance' before this would happen?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:36
Clinton bashers, take note Two sides to every story>(Two sides to every story): -
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washdc/ncs32.htm - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:35
short bull(@who is hurting whom?! edi@erols.com>(edi@erols.com): - George S. Cole remarked a couple weeks ago that my short-term perspective
was hurting novice traders. Others have blasted the short-term traders as if we lack committment, and are not true goldbugs. Well,
being in a long, long-term bear market with still no signs of a recovery, if anyone had jumped out they could now buy back a lot
cheaper. Now I ask...who has been hurting whom? I have made money
trading the XAU from the long side and I am again out of the XAU with
intentions to buy Tuesday again. I expect to again make a short-term
profit. Comments?
continues and anyone who I have traded a couple - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:32
nailz STRAWBERRY, NOT VANILLA>(STRAWBERRY, NOT VANILLA): - DONALD....HEH....HEH....No need to worry....I won't be buying from them even if they are approved.....
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:30
Lan Man Bad Brits!>(Bad Brits!): - Article on the British Custodian of the Enemy Property breaking into safes after WWII and taking the property of Holocaust victims...
http://www.globes.co.il/cgi-bin/Serve_Arena/pages/English/1.2.1.6
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:27
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Japan is on the mend.
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/enews/TNKS/page/ecoset.html - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NAILZ: I think you should hold off on your gold coin purchases from Vanilla Services until after it has been approved by the Albanian Investors Institute.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:16
nailz JUST A THOUGHT......>(JUST A THOUGHT......): - ALL...Has anybody else thought that Rubin and Greenspan have worked very hard to gain respect and admiration....They will not stay around and see the US monetary system suffer serious damage while they are at the wheel....Rubin is already hinting that he is ready to go back to NY private life. AG has a new wife and may want more family time. If both leave, I believe that would be a clear signal of rough roads ahead...Any thoughts ? This is not to start any rumors, etc., but just to question if anybody else had thought of the possibilities.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:04
nailz STEVE and SPEED.....>(STEVE and SPEED.....): - I believe inflation will come before deflation....Our government would much prefer inflation to deflation, when we are talking extremes. A little bit of deflation would probably be tolerated, but let a serious deflation begin and the party in power that does nothing about it will be out on the streets at the next election. Americans vote their pocketbooks. On the other hand, if as Steve says the greenback becomes unacceptable as a medium of exchange in world-wide trade, it would be very hard for the US to inflate its way out of a world-wide deflation.
That however will take some time. I have never known of a world powers' currency to become worthless overnight. It would take time for other countries to lose faith in that currency, most probably during an inflationary period. Either way I see inflation coming first. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:04
Savage how do you spell cynicism>(how do you spell cynicism): - I think the most dastardly thing they could do is to let gold prices go up a buck or two ( or even three ) on Monday, then....smash us the rest of the week! So, that is my prediction.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 19:00
vrosnky NEW SEARCH FUNCTION at GOLD-EAGLE - Find What You Want QUICKLY>(NEW SEARCH FUNCTION at GOLD-EAGLE - Find What You Want QUICKLY): - 280+ pages of financial data, analysis, reports & studies - VIRTUAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PRECIOUS METALS. Use “SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE” button in HOT NEWS box to find what you seek - RAPIDLY:
http://www.gold-eagle.com
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 18:41
WW @depressed>(@depressed): - My Canadian cousin who is active in the NDP and her husband who is active in the unions have invited me free of charge to one week at a Cuban resort. They told me to come up to Toronoto and fly out with them and that the Cubans would not stamp my passport so that I could avoid prosecution by the US govt for traveling to Cuba ( do they prosecute Connie Chung or Tom Brokaw ) . My Cousin and Cousin in law are going to Cuba then France.,Britain, Sweden and Russia to meet and conference with people of a like mind especially Yeltsin.s party in Russia who they join in opposing Communism but in support of a Socialist mkt economy. The perks these people get are unbelieveable. If I were not a Lawyer I would be at Veradero Beach near Habana in Two weeks. God Bless Canada for its freedom of travel!!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 18:34
George s. Cole SA golds>(SA golds): - ARK: I have the greatest respect for Steve Kaplan, but he has been wrong on the SA golds. Kaplan has been arguing that the SA golds are much more attractive than the North Americans for some time, but the SA shares have underperformed nonetheless. The SA shares have more political risk than the North Americans and also are higher cost. So their underperformance is not surprising.
That said, the highly leveraged SA shares almost certainly will outperform when the next gold bull market begins. The SA shares always do worse in gold bear markets and better in gold bull markets. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 18:22
Speed @inflation>(@inflation): - Steve Puetz: I am eating tomatoes from my garden and pondering this inflation/deflation thread. If the government commits early on to supporting the bonds, at any cost, then bonds won't collapse. Confidence will be maintained. Rubin and Greenspan will pick a price and dig in. Hundreds of billions of new money will be created instantly to purchase all bonds tendered for sale. They understand the confidence game and will play it to the hilt. Lots of money will chase away all debt and everybody will be congratulating the heros. Everybody except the creditors. I understand that hyperinflation just moves the day of reckoning back one or two clicks but it is the choice du jour for failed paper systems. The government will curry favor with the masses by forgiving debt through hyperinflation. Remember that power is at issue here as well as economics. Either way I'm expanding my garden, I love to eat.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 18:22
rhyme delisle@max-net.com>(delisle@max-net.com): - Thank you Panda for posting the bond chart.That,so far,does appear to be
a triangle of some power developing wuth the suggestion that a breakout
above the flat at 7% could be explosive.I'm wondering if the triangle
on the gold chart is quite the same thing.The power of these formations
usually is related to how far the formation has moved towards the apex.
In the case of gold I'm doubting the validity of the breakout to the downside,as in false;it generally being the case that breakouts at
approximately two-thirds to three-quarters of the length of the triangle
are the most powerful.
Thanks all who contribute to this discussion;its excellent.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 18:09
6pak Canada @ Depression (Relief, Welfare)>(Canada @ Depression (Relief, Welfare)): - Inflation/Deflation, I suggest we are in for a deflation, and it will be
no greater a strain on our country, then the last 1930's depression.
example:
At first, nobody expected the Depression to take the form it did. The
year 1930 seemed like a downturn, but it was a gentle downturn, sliding
by degrees toward the abyss. Unemployment was up, and with it relief.
Manitoba could no longer afford to pay its share of old-age pensions.
Would Ottawa assume the whole cost?
Prime Minister Bennett, announced on Radio, a plain message:
The economic system must be brought under control in order to create
employment and end relief. The Dole must go, the Prime Minister said,
for it was a condemnation, final and complete, of our economic system.
If we cannot abolish the dole, we should abolish the system.
The financial community in Montreal and Toronto was greatly disturbed.
The Old Age Pension Act of 1927 was not a particularly generous measure.
The basic pension was fixed at $240.00 per year, and the pensioner could
enjoy a total income of $365.00 per year including the pension; any
excess income produced an equal reduction in pension. The first steps had
been taken along the road towards the WELFARE STATE.
For some Canadians, therefore, the Depression decade meant a continuation
of the modernization of the 1920's. In spite of the slump, white-collar
jobs proliferated, especially in wholesale and retail trade and in the
professions. Rural doctors might get their fees in chickens; urban
doctors still got money. So did members of the civil service, who were
paid less, it is true, but in dollars that were worth more.
Professors and most teachers also had a steady income. Even at the
University of Manitoba, where the bursar absconded with the endowment,
the government kept the doors open.
The 1930's were a decade of depression, but also a decade of invention
and modernization.
A quarter ( 25% ) of the population might be out of work, but ( 75% )
three-quarters of the population could still subsist by its own efforts.
There was dissatisfaction and, even more, there was uneasiness. But there
was not, and would not be, revolt. Creaking and groaning, the system
held together. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 18:06
Donald @Home>(@Home): - RON: If I were the head Chinese guy I would do just what the Americans do with voice of America. Set up a group of people on the Web to get my point across as a propaganda effort, try to make it seem as though it were the postings of ordinary outraged Chinese citizens
Another thought on who won the Cold War. West Germany bought East Germany from the Russians. Who knows the final price of that deal. Although if I were the head West German I would have done exactly the same thing, the hell with the price. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:58
cherokee @commercials-lead-the-way>(@commercials-lead-the-way): - ted butler--
your analysis of the current situation in gold
due to the positioning of the funds is right-on!
the recent cot report shows which way they think
it is going. i'm on-board with dec options.
there is too much flux and chaos flying for prices to
remain depressed or in a tight channel. the accumulation
phase is over. gold has been over-sold and is due for a
considerable rebound. ALL indicators are pointing in the
right direction. the only thing lacking is the price itself.
patience is one of the most important qualities needed to
trade commodities successfully. patience with gold in silver
will make many very wealthy. in the meantime, we await bald
headed al to raise rates and jump-start the cyclical paper-tiger
on its' way down the mountain that paper built.
time is on our side. the lower prices go, the stronger our position
becomes. if you can keep your head about you, when all others are
losing theirs..... let's be able to hand them heads when the time
comes!! i'll be there, in the rockets red glare, gold bombs bursting
in air, gave truth to the sight, that gold rules starting tonight!!
cherokee!; ) believer of truth, and seeker of the keeper for the
holy grail.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:54
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Donald: Of course, you are quite correct about not being misled into believing that the postings of Chinese computer users are in any way representative. One of the things that struck me was that all of them were uniformly critical of the USA while none criticized the PRC in any way. It was almost as if they all had a gun pointed to their heads. Oh yeah, that's right . . . they do!
Mike Sheller: Don't pay any attention to me. I do tend to be stuck in the cold war. If your loved ones are in any danger, we're no better off here. I'm thinking more of a limited skirmish, perhaps over Taiwan.
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%
Isn't there any other part of the matzo you can eat?
Marilyn Monroe ( 1926-1962 ) on being served matzo ball soup three meals in a row
%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*%*% - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:52
Donald @Home>(@Home): - Then you don't suspect the old Seasonal Adjustment trick?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:51
Puetz @ using MCM-Trading quotes>(@ using MCM-Trading quotes): - Supposedly, MCM - Trading has live quotes for a limited time at:
HTTP://WEB2.AIRMAIL.NET/MCM1/
Does the quote software automatically download? I didn't see any way to download it or get the quotes? - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:48
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Donald: The Monetary Base has been in a deflationary contraction for several months. I believe it peaked at $486 billion. Now it's down to $473 billion. This is just one more deflationary signal.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:41
Donald @Home>(@Home): - STEVE PUETZ: Did you see my post on the 4 Billion drop in the Monetary Base over the past two weeks? I am confused about it. Can anyone offer an insight?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:39
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Paul: Monetization of debt by the Federal Reserve does not necessarily imply inflation -- although it always has during the past 50 years. The most recent exception was the 1930s, when fear overcame all efforts by the Fed to halt the deflation. CONFIDENCE is more important to credit-market health than Fed action. If the Fed buys Treasuries in a collapsing market, the deflation of existing Treasuries does not helped current holders of debt securities. My argument for deflation is based on over-indebtedness by all sectors of the US economy, rising bankruptcies, a declining economy, and loss of confidence. These are things that govenment action and Federal Reserve action cannot change. Once confidence is broken, it is extremely hard to restore.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:30
Puetz @ Scotty>(@ Scotty): - Scotty: My argument about buying gold and silver for the right reason was made, because it's very likely that a person buying the precious metals as an inflation hedge will bail out as deflationary intensify. For the person holding onto the metals regardless of circumstances, then you are correct -- it won't really matter. One final thought: A person preparing for deflation will very likely adjust his finances very differently that someone preparing for inflation. The deflationist will try to get out of debt, and avoid leverage in his investments. The inflationist may feel comfortable with heavy debt loads and the use of leverage. Thus, in a deflationary environment, an inflationist may be forced out of his positions even though he wants to hold them. That's why I believe it's important to know and understand the forces of inflation and deflation.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:19
nailz FOUND IT !!!!!>(FOUND IT !!!!!): - DONALD...Turned auto load images on and found search engine....Story on pyramid scheme on gold coin sales.......
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:16
vronsky The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)>(The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)): - Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 17:06
nailz IDT and Donald......>(IDT and Donald......): - IDT....XAU does not lead nor follow in any consistent pattern to the physicals...It may do one for a while and then the other...For the last few months, there has been more volitility in the XAU than in the gold physicals....Sometimes a trend develops where one leads the other for a while. Traders love to find the leading indicator....It may be bonds, PGMs, silver or currencies, WHATEVER !!!!! Just as long as I figure what the leading indicator is, ( when there is one ) that is all I need to know.
I have even seen the grains act as the leading indicator. Crude is common. .....DONALD....I went to FT with auto load images turned off, so I may have missed some of the pictures. Didn't see a search engine. ISRAELI...SP...Yes a finger twitched too soon.... - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 16:16
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - Why does the XAU lead bullion up? Are the same people who are buying and selling the bullion also buying stocks, and having advanced knowledge of what the spot price will do they make some side money in stocks?
Front: Maybe your worm is too small. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 16:12
Donald @Home>(@Home): - NAILZ: You are spelling Israeli wrong. It should also come up on Vanilla Services
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 16:02
nailz DONALD>( DONALD): - DONALD.......Glad you posted the FT site....It is a good one. I just spent some time looking at it. Lots of interesting stuff... Have not found anything on Isreali Gold... Where is it or briefly summarize it so I will know if I want to spend more time looking.....
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:44
Vieserre home>(home): - George S. Cole: Thanks George, in the main, I am in accord with your views on the market.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:37
panda @>(@): - Here on a quiet Sunday afternoon, and look what I find on the Yahoo! site. Yup, going to get interesting... Those poor EMUs that got clubed to death... Well, I guess we now know what happens to EMUs. :- ) )
Kohl under pressure as debate over euro rages
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/29/z0009_145.html
French Communists hit at Jospin over Renault plant
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/29/z0009_146.html - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:24
ark salted@core>(salted@core): - I guess the hook is pretty well set; here I am at Kitco on
a Sunday afternoon.
I'm thinking about shifting some of my gold mutual funds into
a fund primarily invested in South African mines per the
Kaplan Gold Mining Outlook. However, I'm worried about
the labor market/strikes and the political situation. In
view that they have been depressed for so many years...what
is your read. Some exposure seems prudent at this time.
Reasoned responce will be welcome by all I'm sure. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:21
panda @>(@): - Speed -- Yes, we will. Who would you believe? The Russian's blaming a paper work SNAFU, or, as D.A. pointed out, The Tiger Fund?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:20
Donald @Home(chores done)>(@Home(chores done)): - SPEED: It was too good to be true? Here is is. After you register search for Israeli Gold
http://www.ft.com/ - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:17
panda @>(@): - Front -- You're gonna kill me here! Still LOL!
Back to whatever I was trying to say before.....
For anyone who cares, this is the official 'limit down' page;
http://www.cboe.com/market/procedure.html
Got to regain my composure here! LOL - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:06
panda @>(@): - Front -- ROTFL! Too Cold?! :- ) ) I should tell you the story of the damsel in distress I encountered by the ocean. It seems, well, she was enjoying the sun, :- ) when a large wave came along and swept her off the rocks that she was laying on. I heard this scream for help. By the time I got over there, she had pulled herself out of the water. The water was COLD. Well, she really wanted to get out of the water..... Needless to say, she was embarrassed... But, my oh my, she was cute. :- )
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 15:02
George s. Cole gscole@ix.netcom.com>(gscole@ix.netcom.com): - Viesserre: I aso found your latest post most persuasive.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:56
6pak Maybe @ Some Interest>(Maybe @ Some Interest): - Investment Managers must be ethical: by Ron Chalmers, Southam, Edmonton.
Investment management is a business that depends on trust but Bill
Avera ( Association for Investment Management and Research ) warns that
it also is an ethical challenging business where people can go bad.
One obvious problem is simple temptation, Avera says Investment managers
handle large amounts of other people's money. And they may rationalize
that those clients are no better, no smarter, no more needy and no more
deserving than they are themselves.
Investment managers may not be larcenous by nature, but, we are pushy,
forceful people, he says, and such personalities sometimes may push
beyond ethical limits.
He also warns against the abuse of insider information--that is, buying
or selling securities on the basis of information that has not been
publicly released.
Avera emphasizes, however, that an honest mistake--such as recommending
that a cliant buy Bre-X would not be unethical as long as the analyst
backed the advice with research and fully disclosed the risk.
Our members have the understanding and the clout to protect shareholders
rights, Avera says, suggesting that professional investment managers,
working for large institutions, also may benefit smaller investors.
Gold is but a Barbaric relic, all these outstanding, concerned
individual power brokers, are honest, forthright, and dedicated, to the
vested interests of our respective communities. Trust but Verify EH !
( buyer beware, works for me ! )
This news item, suggests additional ( Modern Artificial Controls, )
note: Avera founder of FINCAP consulting, Austin Tex. speaking to
Canadian Society of Financial Analysts, in Edmonton Alberta.
( June 26 1997 ) - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:56
George s. Cole gold bear>(gold bear): - FUNDY and NAILZ: This cyclical gold bear began in February 1996; it is now entering its 17th month. Not quite 18, but still rather substantial.
From a longer-term perspective, the secular gold bear commenced in 1980; it is now in its 17th year. This secular gold bear has encompassed several shorter bulls and bears, but I think most will agree the long-run trend has been down.
Bullion bottomed in 1985, but measured in constant dollars it now is well under its 1985 trough. And bullion is far lower today versus stocks than it was in 1985. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:40
Speed @chores await>(@chores await): - Donald: You're welcome! But..your password is required for all of the rest of us, so post to the home page and let us apply if we want.
Vieserre: Great piece. You and Kaplan present an articulate argument for hanging on. Puetz and Mclvany are my kind of gold bulls. I want to buy more! June is almost over and with it the most dismal month for gold. July promises to be hotter in many ways.
Panda: Notice that Stillwater stood like a stone wall during the sell off Thursday and Friday. The russkies haven't delivered yet on their platinum/palladium deals. We shall see.. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:20
................... kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk>(kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk): - To WW
I got the number 21% from a mrkt guru ( Don Wolanchuck ) and he gets it from Market Vane.
Here's something interesting, I saw a post on Compuserve where the poster
asks wheather or not the hong Kong hand over will automatically give a billion + Chinese access to western Markets. I know GReenline Securities has an office in Hong Kong - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:14
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - George S. Cole: Do you mean 18 year old bear. I like your position if you do.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:09
Vieserre A Case For Gold>(A Case For Gold): - WW and others. Hopefully you will not mind if I interject. I have observed your negative comments recently on the market, and I have a counter-view for you to consider.
Unlike what is projected here and unlike what is the common consensus, I consider the gold market to be exceptionally strong as it has shown considerable strength, rather than weakness, in the last few months to have absorbed all the gold rising from sellling attributed to the recent plethora of continuous negative news and attendant extreme negative sentiment, massive short selling, CB sellling, and historic selling from an active gold carry trade and producer hedging. It is hard to imagine a worse set of conditions. One should consider that the only reason that producer hedging and gold loan transactions have been successful is because the gold market has been able to absorb the selling. And although gold recently broke, it is not unusual for a commodity to break to the downside before making a reversal and the XAU with its performance on Friday is the best positive performance I have seen for many months. Further, it would seem to be that more than just the fabrication market has been supporting the gold market as the fabrication demand would not seem to be sufficient to absorb all the gold that presumably has been sold. And these investors who have been purchasing gold may be the “smart money” that we will eventually read about.
In addition, if one believes that equities look toward a longer time horizon than the futures, the XAU is demonstrating by its recent relative performance , and by its higher price, relative to gold when gold was previously at this level, that gold will be higher in the long, if not intermediate, term.
Importantly, there is plenty technical fuel to contribute to a rally, notwithstanding any positive surprises. And if a rally does occur, the necessity of cover of so much short and derivative hedging can propel gold significantly higher than what one can currently conceive. And if such a rally does take place it will give confidence to investors to enter the market,as the media will fasten on reasons for the rise. Moreover, it would not be unusual to see one or more of the many material numerous risks in the financial markets manifest itself at the same time, as the DOW is giving signs it is topping for at least a major correction.
But even if gold does go to 325 or lower, as it goes lower, there will be increasing counter-forces to reverse the move. Gold fabrication demand from Asia should increase, producer supply should lessen, Western CB selling should lessen, Asian CB demand should increase, short-selling should lessen, and an incentive to enter short hedges, which measure the possibility of gold moving lower, should lessen. And most importantly, investor buying interest should increase as the further gold falls, as the risk of it going lower increasingly diminishes. Eventually, there will be a rally owing to technical forces as these short positions eventually unwind, which should return gold to at least near present levels
Therefore, I know of no other asset that has better risk/reward characteristics.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:09
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WW, GEORGE S. COLE: Gold is cheap compared to the Dow. Ask yourself, would you rather have thirty single shares of the Dow or 23 ounces of gold. The answer is so obvious its a shame that the question has to be asked. Talk about inflation...last week Compaq said they are going to buy Tandem Computer...how are they going to pay for it? Turn on the printing presses in the basement of Compaq and print the damn shares, 29 million of them at 100 bucks apiece. Those guy are no better than the Fed. But the public can't wait to get their hands on it. In 1720 people were lined up in the Place Vendome all night, days on end, begging John Law to print shares in the bubble for them. What jerks. It took sixty years for the French to recover from that one.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:08
nailz HOW OLD IS THE BEAR ?>(HOW OLD IS THE BEAR ?): - GEORGE.....How old is the bear ?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 14:06
nailz Churchill......>(Churchill......): - STEVE and ALL......Glad you all enjoyed the Churchill stories...He is one of my favorite characters in history. Think of him in contrarian terms also...England had no use for a plain talking tough nut politician before the war...Then he proceeded to save the nation...My what cycles we pass through....
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 13:31
GEORGE S. COLE HEARTS AND MINDS>(HEARTS AND MINDS): - WW: I think you have it backwards re: hearts and minds. It is our hearts ( emotions ) that are screaming sell. After all the bear is 18 months old and still is alive and kicking. Gold has been taking a beating while most financial assets have soared. But our minds tell us that gold and gold stocks are CHEAP and the overall stock market is VERY EXPENSIVE.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 13:17
Xiao first.comment>(first.comment): - my prediction for next week:
Gold price will make no big change on Monday. Go north a little to bring
some enthusiasm after Monday, then come back to current level at the
end of next week. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 13:16
Donald @Home>(@Home): - WW@New England re Meltdown.
My hastily thought answer would be no. A 250 point drop is supposed to shut down the market for 1 hour according to the rules. A second drop of 250 would trigger another 1 hour etc. You will get your 1000 or 2000 drop over time, slowly pulling the band-aid off so to speak. The Fed will come into the market secretly, buy some options or whatever to try and fix it. They will be unsuccessful in the long run of several days or so. I have noticed that the big guys may be exiting last week. Conciously or unconciously, they deliberately control themselves to prevent the 250 number. They don't want that to trigger until the public is selling and they are all out. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 13:10
Mac Sell@yourgold>(Sell@yourgold): - Donald,
the US CPI numbers do NOT include State, Local or Federal tax increases
Naturally, but don't worry all tax cuts will be calculated into these numbers in advance to make up for the discrepancy. Slick Willie is a fair dude and he will make sure that the public keeps getting nothing but good news. That's what they want - that's why they elected him and his economy handling approval ratings are very high from both sides. Ain't it great? In a democracy you get the government you deserve. I think it's WONDERFUL!! Sell your gold. SELL - SELL - SELL - SELL ( I want to finish accumulating at about $320!!!! )
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 13:03
WW @NewEngland>(@NewEngland): - Do we have the potential of a one or two
thousand point meltdown in a day once the Dorian Grey economy and mkt are truly revealed by some outside source like Japan and China?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 12:45
Puetz @ bullish sentiment>(@ bullish sentiment): - If the 21% gold-bulls is the same poll as Ian McAvity uses in Deliberations, 23% was the lowest in the past 6 years. That occurred before the $35 January 1997 rally began. 21% would be an excellent indicator of capitulation in gold.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 12:42
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Gene @ 11:23 -- The book-cooking story is interesting. Do you have any other info about it?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 12:40
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Scotty and Nailz: Those were great Churchill stories!!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:37
Donald @Home>(@Home): - I wonder how many cops volunteered to do extra duty to be on the lookout for the dastardly perpetrators.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:30
Front @the topless beach !>(@the topless beach !): -
Panda:
Sure, blame me for the situation. I noted in the topless story that there were only a few confirmed sitings noted by police. Perhaps that's because it's still against the law to be a peeping tom or it was so damn cold at the beach every thing shrunk and confirmation was extremely difficult or .... you get the idea . Apparently, the tourist bureau is thinking of advertising the fact of topless beaches. Hasn't happened in my cottage country yet, however, we did have a LOVELY YOUNG neighbour who did allow the fresh air to settle on her skin last summer. Never went out fishin' so much in my life! However, even though legal, I've yet to see her this year and the fish ain't bittin' either! Could there be a link? Maybe the fish like the views also? AHOY MATE, can I borrow your wife? I've got to catch supper!
TTFN
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:23
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - An article in the London Financial Times suggests that some large US corporations may have cooked their books.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:18
Donald @Home>(@Home): - SPEED: Great! It even gets you access under my password.
GENE: Did you know that the US CPI numbers do NOT include State, Local or Federal tax increases? - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:11
panda @>(@): - Monsoons, gold shortages in India, what next?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/29/z0009_137.html
Scandals everywhere! Even in Japan!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/29/z0009_141.html
Gold shortages, banking scandals, the Germans deciding not to sell gold, what next? A market crash? Never! To top it all off ( snicker, snicker ) they're going topless in Ontario! So this is why gold is going down........ :- ) ) :- ) ) - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:07
Donald @Home>(@Home): - SPEED: Thanks. I am trying it with the gold coin story.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/72506.htm - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:05
Gene @Reality-inflation to remain low>(@Reality-inflation to remain low): - Inflation will remain low because nobody will ever see the real numbers. The government will publish those numbers necessary to keep everything NICE.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 11:03
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - REB, re Japan debt. A few months ago I read in Pointcast News that the Japanese had failed to pay back a 600 billion loan from Washington. I also read that Rubin and Co. had put aside an emergency fund of 400 billion to buy back any US Treasuries that the Japanese might sell. I think the world will find that the US printing presses can print faster than anyone can sell debt.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:51
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - WW, I think you have a point on gold. Sometimes our hearts are not in rhythm with our brains.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:46
vronsky CHURCHILL ON DRINKING>(CHURCHILL ON DRINKING): - SCOTTIE & ALL CHURCHILL FANS: Churchillian traditions which made Britain Great will be fought for an maintaind. This tradition can be summed up in the words of the great man himself - When Churchill was told over lunch that his guest, the king of Saudi Arabia, was forbidden by his religion from smoking or drinking alcohol, he said: I must point out that my rule of life perscribed as an absolutely sacred rite smoking cigars and also the drinking of alcohol before, after, and if need be during all meals and in the intervals between them.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:45
Speed catching up>(catching up): - Donald: You can type the URL ( Universal Resource Locator ) directly into your comments or your can copy and paste them in. Left click your mouse on the location field while at the site of choice. Then hold down the control key and press the C key. That's copy. Go to the comments field here at kitco and press Control-V, That's paste. The location syntax is important if you type it in. The colon and forward slashes must be correct. Go for it!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:45
George S. Cole Market Vane>(Market Vane): - WW: I believe the 21% bullish reading refers to the weekly Market Vane survey of gold traders. I do not know if they have a web site. I do recall that 30% used to be considered a very depressed reading for this indicator. At 21%, it probably is as low as it has ever been.
ALL: The bear market in gold and especially gold shares has been as extreme as the 1973-75 bear in stocks. Those inclined to despair here should remeber that the worse the bear, the stronger the subsequent bull. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:12
vronsky TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)>(TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)): - Venerable Jim Dines Does It Again: He found 2 gold stocks defying the big bad bear in precious metals: EURO-NEVADA & FRANCO-NEVADA. A Unique gold concept ( 6/28/97 ) . SEE Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:08
Donald @Home>(@Home): - STEVE-PERTH: Can you teach me how to do that? How do you plug in the site you want us to read? That is really neat.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 10:04
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Is the blindingly obvious slowly starting to set in?
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970629/business/stories/stocksweek_1.html - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 09:58
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - White House appointing ANOTHER Dracula to the Blood Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/z0000_z00_14.html - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 09:32
BillInOregon bjack@cdsnet.net>(bjack@cdsnet.net): - I would attend a gathering of kitcoites in Indy. I have found my fellow kitcoites to be rather nice gentlemen ( even those who aren't hoosiers )
Are there any kitcoites in Hilo? Will be there Tues. I will be taking my laptop so I can continue lurking.
What a blessing this site is. You guys make my day with your knowledge, comments & Jokes.
Tort, I will be in your area next year, would like to meet you ( coffee,lunch? ) .
Any kitcoites who visit southern Oregon ( Medford ) would be welcomed. The E-Mail address is for real. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 09:22
REB na>(na): - Paul: With regard to Japan selling us back out debt: This is especially inflationary to us if the debt is purchased by the fed. This is what is known as monetizing the debt, or purchase of it with newly created fiat money.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 08:46
WW @New England>(@New England): - George: Do you know where the 21% bullish on gold came from? Is there a website where this information can be found?
Tort: Do you get that feeling that we are hoping gold goes up but we know in our deepest recesses that it just aint time. A bear mkt falls down a mountain of hope into the valley of despair before it becomes a bull and starts to climb the wall of worry to the pinnacle of euphoria and expectation which creates the hope which allows the bear to begin again.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 08:11
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ALL: Do you need a bigger Sign of the Top than the news a few weeks ago about the Gingrich-Clinton budget deal. It is based upon the Congressional Budget Office estimates that project current tax revenues, based upon the Bull Market, to the year 2002! If any of you have access to a book titled The Great Wave, by David Hackett Fischer, I recommend that you read the section, starting on page 65, about Florence, Italy, in 1491. Mr. Fischer writes about the greatness of Florence in that year, and then, with the benefit of hindsight, says: But beneath the surface things were not as they appeared. Once again, at the very moment when it was least expected, a deep change was silently stirring in Florence itself and throughout the Western world. After a century of equilibrium, new trends were begining to develop in Italy and other parts of Europe.
Hope I am not in copyright trouble. This book is a very instructive read for all gold traders who recognize the value of long term trend recognition. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 08:00
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - In the words of Mike Tyson, he that hath ears to hear, or extra ears from earless oafs with which to hear, gold is going to take a bite out of the market this next week; maybe two bites. It'll be a disqualification for the paper junk.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 07:24
panda @>(@): - Paul @ 00:01 -- I think you meant 'sell' and not 'give'. Clearly, if they GAVE us back our notes, we would be most happy. :- ) ) :- ) )
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 07:21
panda @>(@): - Paul @ 00:01 -- Yes, it will be inflationary. Import prices will rise as the Dollar falls. Interest rates will also rise. Question is, what will the spin boyz do? ( RR, AG, BC? )
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 07:14
Mike Sheller I think I hit my head on the ceiling>(I think I hit my head on the ceiling): - GEORGE S. COLE: I maintained when the word came out that the Social Security fund was being considered for investment in stocks that this must be a sure sign of the top. Fortunately for all of us, there are no funds in that fund, so the feds couldn't buy stox when they so clearly wanted to. I'm glad to see Big Brother has seen his place and the States are taking back the powers they were guaranteed under the Constitution. As usual, all those toxic fumes swirling in the atmosphere have emboldened New Jerseyites to take steps into territory none have gone before. Someday, I presume, Jerseyites will drive by some waste-dump landfill outside of Carteret or Bayonne, where they can stop to see their investments blowing in the wind. If this isn't THE contrarian of all contrarian, get the hell out of the water sell signals, I don't know what is.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 07:02
Mike Sheller Dealer's choice>(Dealer's choice): - TED BUTLER ( 23:20 ) - A post that infuses optimism. Dealers do rarely lose, and I agree with you that the funds WILL discover that. Especially since it has been many a year that gold has impressed anyone, so the current crop of money managers are paper tigers and likely see gold as a less than barbaric relic, suitable only for Christmas stockings ( another barbaric relic? ) and fuddy-duddies. EB: A wise quote from Chuang-tzu. I am enlightened ( seriously!!! ) .
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 07:01
JimX67 joke>(joke): - Winston Churchill :
Your 18:02 - Great joke ; ) ) ) - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 06:58
George S. Cole sign of the times>(sign of the times): -
June 29, 1997
New Jersey Is Betting the Future on Wall Street
By FLOYD NORRIS
EW YORK -- In the summer of 1982, with the stock market 22 percent below where it
had been in 1966, stocks were understandably unpopular. In the 15 years since, the
Dow Jones industrial average has risen 895 percent. Now, stocks are so popular that a
state government has opened a margin account.
New Jersey last week sold $2.8 billion in state bonds -- the largest single long-term municipal
financing in history. The money will not go to build roads, schools or even sports stadiums. It
will buy stocks.
And, Gov. Christine Todd Whitman is sure, those stocks will go up so fast that the state will
come out ahead.
To be fair, this is not really a margin account. In such an account the loan is secured by the
stocks themselves and by the borrower's credit. This borrowing is not secured by the stocks.
Nor has New Jersey pledged any revenues or even its general obligation.
This borrowing is secured by nothing. It is what is known as an appropriation bond. That
means interest will be paid if, and only if, the state government decides to pay it.
It does sound a little alarming, initially, conceded Sam Corliss, the chief muni bond official
at Merrill Lynch, which was the lead underwriter for the bonds. But he quickly added that
investors should have no fear. The bonds are insured by MBIA, Ambac and Financial Security
Assurance, which share $27 million in premiums. They will have to pay if the state doesn't.
New Jersey's new bonds are not exempt from federal income taxes, so it is paying rates as
high as 7.6 percent, about two-thirds of a percentage point higher than Treasuries.
This deal reflects the state of both public finance and the financial markets in 1997. The state
needed to do something to shore up an underfinanced state pension plan, but it could have
borrowed far less had it not decided that it would also forgo making its regular contribution to
the fund this year and next. That alone added $590 million to the borrowing, and freed up the
same amount to be spent on other things.
The financial market story is familiar. What once would have seemed rank speculation now
seems wise. Insurers see no problem in bonds unsecured by anything, and with no recourse if
they are not paid. More and more investors believe stocks are a sure thing.
A commission thinks the Social Security system should join New Jersey in betting its future on
the corner of Wall and Broad Streets.
Monday, New Jersey will get a check for $2.75 billion ( what is left after fees ) and will put the
money into its pension system. That buying power will help push up share prices a bit more,
as will purchases by stock mutual funds, which now bring in that much money every four
days.
There is no particular sign that this great bull market will end soon. But there is a real question
whether it will keep churning out big profits over the life of the New Jersey bonds. A future
New Jersey governor may curse the day Governor Whitman found this clever way to balance
the state budget.
But perhaps that governor will decide that since the speculation didn't work out, the pain
should be shared with those who financed it. After all, the bonds carry only the promise that
the legislature will consider paying them.
So the state might decide to meet its obligations by distributing depreciated shares of stock. It
could tell the insurers to make up the difference.
Unthinkable? Of course. But that's also what people would have said in 1982 about a state
borrowing to take a plunge in stocks.
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Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 06:46
George S. Cole Vanguard>(Vanguard): - A word to the wise:
Vanguard Publishes New Plain Talk Booklet On
Bear Markets
The Vanguard Group has issued a timely new educational booklet that examines past market declines. The new booklet, entitled
Bear Markets: A Historical Perspective On Market Downturns, is the most recent addition to Vanguard's widely acclaimed Plain
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Mr. Brennan noted that since the last severe downturn in stocks ( a 21% decline in mid-1990 ) , assets invested in stock funds have
grown seven-fold ( from $245 billion to $1.75 trillion ) and the number of stock fund accounts has increased nearly four-fold
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The 24-page booklet features six primary sections:
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charts depicting the severity and duration of past bear markets.
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recovery periods.
Are You Prepared For The Next Bear Market?-- reviews four factors ( investment objective, time horizon, risk tolerance,
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Bear Markets: A Historical Perspective on Market Downturns
To order a free copy of the booklet, please visit our Literature Library, contact Vanguard by e-mail or by calling toll-free
1-800-860-8394.
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© 1997 Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 06:30
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - From Don McIlvany's Report on Gold Eagle:
As Proverbs 27:12 says: The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.
Why I am a contrarian adviser & investor. But it is hard being a bear in a bull market! By the way, has anyone noticed that the Gold Eagle iste is downloading very very slowly lately, or is it just me? This site loads fast enough. Can't work it out. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 06:28
George S. Cole short-covering>(short-covering): - Ted Butler: Very thought provoking post!
I have no idea what gold will do next week, but with sentiment and fund short-sales at truly extreme levels, the next major move will be up. But we need investor demand in addition to short-covering for the rally to last. Otherwise, the price will collapse again after the shorts have been skinned.
WW: I regard the current very depressed sentiment as highly bullish longer-term. As for the Financial Times Gold Conference, this as a contrary indicator. The tone was much more bullish a few years ago, and look what gold has done since then. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 05:39
Donald @Home>(@Home): - To All: Does anyone know how to get gold market quotes from Israeli or Moslem market sources that are trading on Saturday and Sunday?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 03:55
IDT IDT@home>(IDT@home): - Savage: You can add another to the list. I was a professor of biology at Purdue University and now live in Lousiana.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 02:57
EB a bit later...>(a bit later...): - Sorry Mike Sheller
Astronomy = Astrology
I get carried...AWAY
EB
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 01:50
nailz NON EVENT>(NON EVENT): - HOLIFIELD and OTHERS....The coming week should be a non-event for gold and silver, if the past holds...If anything big, it should be down...Shorts are in control for now..Lots of floor people take the week off for holiday....The actions of Friday were predictable..Still a bear market in metals and floor traders going to be off for holiday...They Did not want to be long because they know markets can be manipulated when market is thin.....Those thinking about longs for next week...BE CAUTIOUS...Thin markets are manipulated easier.....Watch the east....The markets can also be manipulated in the opposite direction....Flat futures for me...Options only in a thin market....FF prevails, that is the fear factor...STILL, ALL PARTS IN PLACE FOR BREAK UPWARDS BIG TIME !!!!! DAYS WEEKS ? MONTHS Be sure to put your physical position in place !!!!!! Paper coming soon !!!! Maybe real soon !!!
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 01:38
GVC @Savage-hoosier connection>(@Savage-hoosier connection): - Savage: APH said his oldest daughter went to Purdue University, but he never said he was a hoosier himself. Bill in oregon said he used to live in Terre Haute and still had relatives. Auric lives in Indy, Puetz went to Purdue. I was born and raised in Indy and graduated from Purdue, but live in Vegas now. I think that covers it for now. If we ever do have a Kitco convention/party after gold makes its historic rally, Indy could be a possible location.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 01:13
Holyfield van go!-i ear you talkin! but ycci!>(van go!-i ear you talkin! but ycci!): - I love the gold predictions from everyone, but you're never right for more than 5 days even gc ( who is the most interesting to read! ) . But i'll tell y'all, i still enjoy reading the comments.
Holyfield's first prediction! Gold will go up Monday &! it will go up a minimum of 3 out of the 3 or 4 business days this week. I've learned how to predict gold from watching this group. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 01:01
Savage Indiana>(Indiana): - I'm surprised that there are so many Indianans ( current & former ) represented here at Kitco. Maybe we should hold a banquet in Indy. APH: did you say you were a Hoosier? Auric, Puetz, who else?
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 00:48
nailz SIR WINSTON>(SIR WINSTON): - ALL...I have just seen on the Discovery Channel a program on the Great Books series concerning symbolism and it reminded me of another Sir Winston story....I will try to use symbolism to equate to the gold/debits situation currently at hand....
Sir Winston was at a cocktail party ( as he liked to attend ) and he became slightly inebriated ( as he liked to do ) ...He became a little loud and began to embarass certain people around him ( GOLD ) ....
Lady Astor ( debits ) came to him and rather sternly said Sir Winston, you have become a shame to our country. You are drunk.
And to that Sir Winston replied Yes, Your Lady, I am drunk. And you are ugly. Tomorrow I will be sober, and you will still be ugly
I wonder about gold and debits. - Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 00:09
WW @NewEngland>(@NewEngland): - kkkkkk... Where do you get your sentiment numbers?
Re: COT Commitment of Traders... This has been bullish all year with only one rally. The numbers are getting extreme but will the commercials reverse and short quickly into any rally. Given current sentiment why wouldnt they? The producers I have talked to are down beat and only see a recovery in gold in 1998. The one I spoke to admitted the producers may be shooting themselves in the foot but they need to make money and option and forward selling are a way to do it. Is this pessimism and downbeat Gold Conference in Prague a mega contrary indicator or not...comments.?
I believe what is happening is being hidden. I do believe there is some sort of rift in the G-7 but not sure what or how it will play out. It makes sense to argue that Japan and China wont sell bonds and buy Gold as doing so would hurt themselves. Unless... They know the US party ( debt driven growth and buying ) is about to end and want to start leaving before the music stops. Or change the world currency reserve status before the crisis they know is going to happen.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 00:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Panda -- I would say that the demand for more new loans has been slackening off. No demand and no interest rate hikes on that account. They should be lowering them if they want to even have a chance of maintaining this Bull-s__t. But even at that, those who are at the limit of their borrowing power will not, even then, be able to help them borrow/spend more currency into circulation. The government will have to pick up the slack. No, if we see rates rise, it'll be because those who buy the paper will be wanting/demanding higher rates of return.
- Date: Sun Jun 29 1997 00:01
Paul no friend of big trader>(no friend of big trader): - can anyone offer some comments on this...experts have been saying that over the
last few years we have been exporting our infation to Japan in the way of
selling them our treasuries... if this is true, if they give us back our
treasuries.. won't this be inflationary to us? am I confused? Earl, where are you
when I need you? - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:54
Speed up late>(up late): - ARK: You are welcome. George Cole posted first about Kaplan but did not include the site URL. Gold-Eagle has some great stuff too. Vronsky provides the links constantly here. Mclvaney on Gold-Eagle will scare the daylights out of you. He scared me! I am waiting on some coins ordered a couple of weeks ago and was wondering if I goofed. Now I may buy some more. This site functions like an underground or counter-culture cell group. It would be nice to be right once in a while, though. I keep leading with my chin. Night all.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:54
APH QUOTES>(QUOTES): - For a limited time you can get free quotes and charts on all markets including Globex and Project x with your choice of TA. You must download their program. http://web2.airmail.net/mcm1/
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:46
APH llllllllllllllll>(llllllllllllllll): - BillInOregon - My sister-in-law lives just out side of Portland.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:30
GVC @Panda-gold charts>(@Panda-gold charts): - Panda: As I stated to Earl in regards to gold's triangle patterns, the normal breakout is to the flat side of the triangle which in this case would be to the downside, BUT, gold has been notorious for false breakouts one way or the other. Since we seem to have broken out to the downside, I will be looking for the possibility of a sharp reversal back up through the triangle and the resulting short covering that will occur. A short trading week would be an ideal time to try to run the shorts. Also, this particular short week has generally been reasonably kind to the XAU also , at least in the past.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:30
............ kkkkkkkkkk>(kkkkkkkkkk): - As of Fridays close there were 21 % bulls down 4 % from Thursdays 25 %
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:20
ted butler gold shorts trapped?>(gold shorts trapped?): - This succession of contract lows in gold over the past two weeks has generated an avalanche of emotion, self-doubt, gloating and extremes in sentiment. We all seemed to be obsessed with trying to interpret just when the collective mood is so extreme so as to suggest the final capitulation. I'm not so sure that's really important. I say that because we, collectively, aka the public, don't comprise a significant portion of either the cash or paper markets in PMs. It's the dealers, the CBs, the mining cos and the funds that determine price. I think it might be more instructive to look to them for possible clues. And I think they just gave us a good one for future price direction. It's the one Steven Kaplan refers to in his latest letter - the immense buildup in speculative fund short positions to record levels in the past two weeks.
He doesn't put a number on it, so I will - it looks like 70,000 net short contracts in the large spec category counting fri's action. If this is correct, it would represent the largest or second largest net short position in years, matching the extreme seen in Feb this year just before the $25 rally ( see gold-eagle analysis page for a graphic look - COT and large spec box ) . I know it will sound crazy, but this means these shorts are trapped. These are purely technical funds who never make or take delivery, so all they can do is buy back their positions. Sure, they might have a bit more to short ( maybe ) and that might translate into a bit more price pressure, but I doubt it. This move down looks a little too professional, a little too planned. By that I mean these shorts look like they were suckered into these sales by the dealers who have been the buyers the whole way down. And the whole way down has been $7 dollars in two weeks, about 2%. Think about it - the dealers got the funds to double their net short position for a measely 7 bucks down. Now what?
The only guess is what's the dealers' plan? Are they going to let the shorts off easy like they did in Feb and we see a $25 rally? Or are they really going to put it to them and we're looking at 100+? While this is not a timing indicator, it feels like the time is near. All I know is the dealers rarely lose, as the funds are about to discover. Who knows, maybe this is the trigger that sets off the whole CB leasing scam, wouldn't that be a shame? - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 23:18
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore): - SPEED @ 08:28 Just wanted to thank you for the URL of Steven Jon
Kaplan's Gold Mining Outlook. I was really feeling pretty
low Friday. His analysis was excellent. I can't remember
reading such a well thought out, reason approach. It cheered
me up and I'm sure it will others.
This site is great! - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 22:56
Scotty scott@codenet.net>(scott@codenet.net): - Chruchill story: I'm a big fan of Sir Winston. As a matter of fact, I have a signed first edition of his 6 volume recollection ( memoirs? ) of WWII.
Annnnnnyway......the story goes that he did not get along at all with a certain female member of parliment ( Lady Astor ) . During one heated discussion when they were having it out with each other, she remarked that if you were my husband, I would certainly poison your tea. To which he remarked: If I were your husband, I would certainly drink that tea! I got a million of 'em...... :- ) )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 22:52
Scotty Inflation or Deflation>(Inflation or Deflation): - Puetz......regarding your post about those that are buying gold to guard against inflation should be, instead, buying gold to guard against deflation. Who cares? [G] As long as they are buying! I'm buying to protect against inflation. But if deflation hits, then I'm covered as well.
Of course, if nothing happens in the next 40-50 years, then my son will be covered. After selling out at Dow 23,500! :- ) )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 22:47
Scotty Margin call, anyone?>(Margin call, anyone?): - Puetz......I did not realize that the NYSE margins were now $106B. Yikes! Reminds me of 1928 and 29. Remember the stories that even the postmen started buying stocks as they got all jazzed up delivering those dividend and profit checks.
The same thing is about to happen: the market had a significant downturn, followed by a disasterous downturn when all those margin calls came in. Of course, the gummit didn't help by not providing any liquidity as they did in 1987.
Who knows.......
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 22:43
Scotty Who wins the cold war?>(Who wins the cold war?): - Donald......excellent recap of the cold war and the fact that we won't know the winner for another couple hundred years! Here's what really happened: we countered every Russian threat ( real or perceived ) with some sort of new technology. And our technology was real that worked. Upon which the Russians were forced to counter with their own technology ( some of which didn't work ) . Welp, their system broke down first. They could only produce so much new technology. And since they had a closed financial system, it was only a matter of time before it fell apart. Perhaps Reagan knew what he was doing all along.......
However, the question is this: will all the spending the US did come to roost months or days from now? Or will we skate by and look back 50 years from now and say: whew!! That was a close one!
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 22:11
panda @>(@): - Front -- What is going on up there! Topless stores? Is it that hot? :- ) )
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/28/z0009_661.html - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:59
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Panda, Yes...
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:55
panda @another.chart>(@another.chart): - This is a weekly chart comparing the Long Bond to gold. Gold didn't collapse when interest rates were at 8%, but gold did go up when interest rates where around 6%. I don't believe that one can honestly say that interest rates are driving gold now. I think it's a case of a complete lack of interest in gold. Could it be this simple?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:39
vronsky TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)>(TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)): - Venerable Jim Dines Does It Again: He found 2 gold stocks defying the big bad bear in precious metals: EURO-NEVADA & FRANCO-NEVADA. A Unique gold concept ( 6/28/97 ) . SEE Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:35
vronsky MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VIII) - TAKING DEFENSIVE ACTION>(MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VIII) - TAKING DEFENSIVE ACTION): - McAlvany says it’s Katie-bar-the-door: GET OUT OF HARM'S WAY! SELL ALL COMMON STOCKS ( DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN ) AND ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS -- and more to avoid financial disaster:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:20
I'm not as good as Tortfeasor Joke>(Joke): - God said to Adam, I have good news and bad news, which do you want first? Adam replied, Let's have the good news first. God, I gave you a brain to think with, and a penis to have fun with. The bad news is I only gave you enough blood to do one at a time.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:09
NJ Trump>(Trump): - Puetz and APH : That Trump gesture of returning a favor was last winter and duly reported in NY Times. It happened on Rte 24 in NJ, where else ?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:04
panda @>(@): - Daily line on close chart for Comex gold...
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:03
panda @weekly or, just weak>(@weekly or, just weak): - Weekly Comex gold going back to 1993 or so...
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 21:00
BillInOregon bjack@cdsnet.net>(bjack@cdsnet.net): - Auric, Puetz, Aph, GVC. Hello fellow hoosiers, I lived on a farm outside of Farmersburg ( outside of Terre Haute ) when I was a lad. I still have family in Terre Haute and visit there often. It is a long story how I ended up in Oregon but having lived here over 20 years, I love it and will not leave.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the markets next week. With these wild swings, the market up or down 100 points, things are going on that we can only guess at. IMHO it is not a good time to be in the markets but to sit on the sideline and wait to see what happens. The whole world runs on debt and some where this debt has to be repaid. It will be very interesting to see what happens when this debt bubble collapses. The person who has no debt or very low debt will be the winner.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 20:26
panda @>(@): - auroelf -- I looked at 'that' ( gold ) chart with it's triangle. I thought it would be more merciful not to post it. Although, seeing that I am speculating in the yellow metal, ( that is the right word, speculating? ) this means that I must be a masochist. So it follows that I will try to post the chart this evening.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 20:25
EB To each, His own...>(To each, His own...): - NAILZ-17:01 nice anecdote! So, let's all talk about OPTIONS.
I have some stats that I hang on my wall and read every day:
60% of the time, MARKETS HAVE NO TREND!
MOST OPTIONS DO EXPIRE WORTHLESS ( let's call it 90+% )
100% of options lose ALL of their time value.
What does this mean?... Do your homework. And DON'T enter any arena of investment that you aren't familiar with. A fool and his money WILL part.
That being said... Options are a great way to play LEVERAGE the futures market. Some leverage bullion, some stox, I leverage futures. Do not ridicule the other if you have not done your homework. But, DO YOUR HOMEWORK.
APH made a post 16:07 it was a good post AND a brave one too. He lost and fessed up. Not many people will admit they got their ASSES kicked. Bravo APH. Options would have been a very good move there. I have LEVERAGED myself with options in GCQ7. And unlike losing $350.00/contract my WHOLE positions cost ONLY $350.00US. And I HAD ( mind you, HAD ) the opportunity to make a GREAT DEAL OF MONEY ( relatively speaking of course ) . You can limit your risk and maximize your profits if you DO YOUR HOMEWORK. Please do not berate things without proper study. Much like our Astronomy friend has been experiencing.
I must admit with all the talk on this post about buying far out-of-the-money calls and puts it doesn't make me wonder why 90+% of options expire worthless. That could be considered a fool and his money...
However, if one MUST purchase out-of-the-money, LOOK AT PLV7 & SIZ7. This is not a recommendation - merely a ponderance.
All GOLD should be watched and waited... and then BACKSPREAD ( GCZ7 when GCQ7 expires - WORTHLESS! ) . Another ponderance...
AWAY
EB
For all men strive to grasp what they do not know, while none strive to grasp what they already know; and all strive to discredit what they do not excel in, while none strive to discredit what they do excel in. This is why there is chaos.
Chuang-tzu
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 20:19
panda @>(@): - Steve - Perth -- I couldn't be bothered with the spelling, I was to busy drawing lines! :- ) )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 20:14
Speed PMI>(PMI): - Donald: PMI is mortage insurance. Lenders are permitted by law to charge borrowers an insurance premium to cover possible default. The laws are arcane and the premium can be avoided if the downpayment is 20% or more. Also, once I have paid in enough or experienced enough inflation to where my principal owed is 80% or less of the appraised value of the house, I can petition to be released from this onerous little fee. Big business in bed with big govenment costs us little guys big money.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 20:00
GVC @Auric>(@Auric): - Auric: went to Brebeuf just down the street ( 86th ) from Pike. close enough? :- )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 19:37
Home Alone Trumped>(Trumped): - So alls I do is change this tire for the gennemin', next thing I knows he pays off my mortgage an I can take out a home equity loan to choke a horse. Tune in to Kitco and find out all these folk's buying n' sellin' gold and all this other hard stuff, so's I think, well this here gold is so valuable to these learned dudes, mebbe I should git me some. So's I buy 's much as I can, but then I figures what with the internet, 9 million channel cable TV an all, there's no hope for music halls n' such, so I sell this here Palladium, a theatre I suppose, real short. Get my a-s kickecd n' the wife leaves, n' now I'm home alone on the Kitco jes' lurkin....Jes lurkin... never asked that Helmsley feller to pay me nothin' nohow.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 19:20
Donald @ Home>(@ Home): - SPEED: Whats a PMI? Another wrinkle on the mortgage packages...Your pension plan, if you have one, probably has Fannie Mae in its portfolio. the whole thing is a house of cards. Everything connects to everything. The butterfly flapping its wings on the African West Coast starts the breeze that is the seed to the US East Coast hurricane. And when we wanted to use silver iodide to break up the hurricanes the Scandanavians were worried that they wouldn't get enough water for their hydro systems. Everything connects to everything.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 19:17
Jack Donald>(Donald): -
Donald: The web site for the Financial Times http://www.ft.com. Lots of good articles in todays weekend edition. They are OK, even though they were the sponsor's of that negative gold conference in Prague. I still get free access, but use it sparingly. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 19:08
John European Currency>(European Currency): -
Go here-- http://www.nando.net/newsroom/ntn/nation/062897/nation22_28066.html - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 18:56
Donald @Home>(@Home): - ALL: Financial Times story for 25 June 1997 regarding charges that a Netherland firm called Vanilla Services is a gold coin fraud. British Dept. of Trade and Industry ( DTI ) is bringing charges. I don't know how to post it for you all. Can someone who does get it for us all?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 18:54
Speed @home (year 2 of 30)>(@home (year 2 of 30)): - Donald: I hadn't thought of the govt. buying the loan. Mine is currently held by Fleet mortgage. Most lenders including Fleet, require PMI in case of default. I wonder what would happen to the insurance companies if enough defaults occurred? They probably hold bonds to meet reserve regulations. So the government would be hit with bond sales to meet claims on defaulted home loans. The fed would print paper to cover the sales and we would get inflation. The fannie mae loans would allow the government to possess massive numbers of properties. It would be like Egypt under Pharoah and Joseph during the seven lean years. The government would end up owning the whole country and retaining the people as employees.
Aph: I sold books for Southwestern in 1974, in Georgia. That was character building! We sold door to door for 75 hours per week. The temperature was 90-95 every day. You will hear some great stories when your daughter gets home. People are funny. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 18:38
Schippi schippi@geocites.com>(schippi@geocites.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
Click on Gold Sectors - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 18:23
Motor-Up Grrrr...Only we can do that>(Grrrr...Only we can do that): -
Steve-Perth: ( 12:59 ) Only our well developed engine technology can keep an engine running at 90 MPH without overheating. As for Business Week........Nuf said - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 18:02
Winston Churchill @ Heaven>(@ Heaven): - That is a false story. What really happened was I asked the young lady if she would go to bed with me for 1000 gold Sovereigns ( Gold angle to keep Kitco happy ) . She giggled a little bit ( thought I was kidding ) and playfully said yes. I said how about for half a crown? She got angry and said What do you think I am. I replied, Madam, we have already determined what you are, now we are merely negotiating the price
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:55
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Gene, I understand it is a two-prong thrust to destroy the gold market. I have it on good authority that this guy named Jack climbed some very fierce vegetation in his back yard to find at the top a goose that lays gold eggs every day. I understand Jack has put the goose out at stud and the ramifications are truly frightening. I'd like to take a gander at that goose.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:51
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - WW, I wanted to thank you for the info that you gave me on my problems with the commodity broker. I have now written to both agencies which you recommended. I have not yet received any response from either of them but I am definitely holding my breath in hopes of relief. I share your thoughts about the gold market. This is very depressing. I come to this site to bolster myself up. I keep trying to think back to the last time gold wallowed like me in self-pity before it went on a solid move north and my mind is hazy at best. I seem to recall that it was darkest just before the dawn and I was about ready to sell everything yellow colored which I owned. This time I've resigned myself to ride it out. As soon as I sold I know for a fact that gold would steam ahead. Proving that a fool and his gold are hard to part.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:45
Gene @Reality-Gold prices to plummet on Monday.>(@Reality-Gold prices to plummet on Monday.): - A mysterious gentlemen residing in a remote village in the Alps will cause gold prices to collapse. Archibald Rumpelstilskin shocked the financial world when he announced that he will reveal his secret of spinning straw into gold. On Monday the straw commodities will skyrocket and gold prices will collapse.
When this correspondent was asked if he believed this rumor would impact the gold market he replied, Yes, gold will plummet. The gullible ones believe every other rumor. Why shouldn't they believe this one?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:45
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Peutz, I enjoyed your Donald Trump story. It sounds like he has bad tires but an all season radial heart. Maybe he is promoting these stories himself. I just read his letter to the editor in People where he was listed among those discussed in Men Behaving Badly. He indicated in the letter that he is in favor of good and lasting marriages but doesn't seem to be doing well in the lady department. I guess when you have all that money its hard to land a stable marriage. We goldbugs ought to be settling in for years and years of rock solid marriages based on the Trump factor.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:35
Auric @Hoosier Hick>(@Hoosier Hick): -
GVC: You didn't attend Pike High School by chance did ya? Nah, that would be way too coincidental! - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:24
auroelf bond triangle>(bond triangle): - panda: The right angle triangle in your bond chart suggests, isolated from all other influences, that rates could rise eventually to 8%. This right-angle triangle with the horizontal line at the top is the upside-down inverse of the gold triangle you posted last week. That right-triangle pattern in gold had its horizontal-line side at the bottom, foreshadowing a significant drop in gold below that line. :- (
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:22
GVC @Auric>(@Auric): - Auric: Sorry to hear you went to that other school ; I am originally from Indianapolis, born and raised. Lived their for 36 years before moving westward. Nice to have other hoosiers around even if they went to the wrong university. :- ) )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:14
GVC @APH/Elliott Wave analysis>(@APH/Elliott Wave analysis): - APH and any other EWavers: found a site that does extensive ewave analysis if your interested:
http://www.marketprojections.com/samplecom.htm
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:04
Auric @The Indy $500>(@The Indy $500): -
Puetz, APH, GVC, BillinOregon- Well, how about that. A Hoosier connection here at Kitco. I am presently sitting comfortably in front of my computer screen in Indianapolis. I had seriously considered going to Purdue for engineering, but alas ended up attending that great Satan, Indiana University. Small world eh? - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 17:01
nailz TALK ABOUT OPTIONS...>(TALK ABOUT OPTIONS...): - All this talk about options reminds me of one of my favorite Sir Winston Churchill stories.....
Seems Sir Winston was at a cocktail party ( one of his favorite activities ) . He was standing with and talking to the local Vicar when the beautiful young hostess came to him with a tray of cocktails.
Would you care for a drink, Sir Winston she asked.
He responded by taking two drinks from the tray and turned to the Vicar and asked him Would you care for a drink, Vicar.
The response was quick and very judgemental. I will have you know that alcohol does not pass through these lips. I consider it to be one of the great sins of the world. In fact, I would rather participate in the sins of the flesh and participate in all kinds of carnal activities than to ever take a drink the Vicar stated forcefully.
Sir Winston looked at the scantily clad beautiful young lady and said to her Young lady, take these drinks back immediately !!! I didn't understand all my options !! - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:54
itsy bitsy trader@EARL @water spout>(@water spout): - EARL: I saw your post regarding ALTA. It seems like one of the better juniors. I own a little now. I may add some more over time if things work out for me with KRY and BGO. I don't think ALTA will moved that much in a short time frame ( I think it is one that an investor has to be patient with ) .
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:51
APH =============>(=============): - My Purdue daughter shocked us this year when she decided to go to work for the Southwestern Company selling books for the summer door to door in Austin, Texas. She will be a Junior and was tried of life guarding. We thought she was nuts but gave in and let her use one of our cars. She's been down there for 5 weeks with other Purdue and U of Indiana students. So far she has made $7,000 for herself. Maybe she will be able to pay her own Purdue bill and gold can stay put.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:28
GVC @APH>(@APH): - APH: your daughter couldn't have picked a finer university to go to. I remember my time there with great fondness. If only they could put a decent football team on the field again! :- )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:27
don gmr97@usa.net>(gmr97@usa.net): - Just an update to an earlier posting I made today,Our website is located
at www.globalminerals.com We will be recommending an excellent gold stock
this week.Has all the fundamentals,strong Boards of Directors,and money in the Bank for exploation in Bolivia.Get your free Newsletter by email
at gmr97@usa.net Good luck and Happy Investing. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:27
BillInOregon bjack@cdsnet.net>(bjack@cdsnet.net): - My daughter went to Purdue, met her husband their, he is now a professor at Ohio State in Oxford Ohio.
Sure like West layfette.
( Hello Reify ) - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:24
Donald @Home>(@Home): - STEVE PUETZ: Re Barrons. Did you notice that the Monetary Base has declined 4 Billion in the past two weeks? Any thoughts?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:19
Donald @Home(Paid For)>(@Home(Paid For)): - SPEED: Re your mortgage. More than likely the bank you dealt with sold your mortgage to Fanny Mae the same day you made the deal. They get a service fee for handling your payments. The U.S. Govt. ( assumed you are U.S. ) owns your house and most of the houses in America. Hard times and they take possession, throw you out then demand that SPEED, the taxpayer, send more money to cover the loss. Thats another reason why I posed the question earlier about the Cold War. In this crazy world Russia becomes capitalist and the U.S. becomes Socialist. The Cold War is not over yet.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:07
APH ------------------->(-------------------): - GCQ7 - I bailed out of my gold futures friday and took the loss, about $350 a contract, more out of discipline than the belief the market is going down further. I originally figured front month Gold would go to 336 or a little under ( June was the front month at the time ) with a 50/50 chance that Aug would become the front month before 336 was hit. When June hit 336.5 and rebounded I figured the low was in and Aug would continue up. That's water under the bridge now. There are huge divergences between the monthly, weekly, daily momentum charts and the price charts. The XAU looks like it may have successfully tested its lows ( a $4 drop in gold should have done more damage ) and is ready to start back up. I'll be looking to reenter GCQ7 Monday morning on the long side.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:06
bw Re: Puetz, more margined long stocks>(Re: Puetz, more margined long stocks): - Steve: Agree with you that much of todays buying of stocks is on the cuff. An example of this that will be a factor in the coming stock market debacle is the price holding operation the mutual funds have been performing every time we get the almost 10% correction. The mutual funds borrow money from the banks using their long stock position as collateral, this money they use to buy more stocks, thus aborting the correction ( contrary to popular belief the fed may not be too heavly into this YET ) . They should sell the borrowed stock into the rise and repay the loans but I suspect they do not in full. Thus the 6.1% cash to assets they show if it were adjusted for loans and margined stocks would be a deeply negative number. I believe the truth is that the mutual funds have no cash, what they have is piles of stocks and loans to repay. Loans that will be called as the price of the stocks falls below the former price keeping points. And tons of stocks which must be sold as the loans are called. Of course all this is well known the both the large spec shorts to be and to the fed.
Picture this, the market falls below a former price keeping point. The public has been in full panic and has been selling every day for weeks. The banks panic and call the loans. The funds must sell both the stock required to cash out the public and the stock required to pay the loans. Meanwhile the large spec shorts are selling margined to the hilt. The fed is of course the only possible buyer. Steve since I beat you with my call of a dow below 250, I'll give you another chance. This one is the maximum intraday loss on the dow for a single week. It has to be intraday because of the fed, spoil sports, without them we could get a fantastic number on a closing basis. I'll start off the bidding with a snap 1500 dow points, but I reserve the right to adjust. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:04
Bill Buckler aint computers grand!>(aint computers grand!): - Eureka! Server's back up again: http://www.the-privateer.com
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 16:00
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com): - Steve ( Jun 28 7:42 ) I did update the ten year Dow chart, yesterday.
Problem is that the server is down at the moment. Working on it.
Re: Gold pessimism. I concur with George Cole. Haven't seen it
this bad in a loooooong time. Another thing I haven't seen for
a long time, if ever, is the size of the shear between the
Aussie market as a whole and Aussie Gold stocks. Aussie market
up about 11.5% this year. Aussie Gold stocks down 20% plus.
Something will have to give. Most likely scenario is falling
Aussie market. But I don't think that present situation can
be compared with 1987. Back then, Aussie gold stocks best performing
on the market. Now, there is every chance, especially if the Dow does
not crash but simply keels over, that Gold stocks will perform
counter to the rest of the market. Of course, for that to happen,
we need a higher Gold price. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 15:56
Mikeharry metoo!>(metoo!): - Hey I think I remember changing one of the Donald's flat tires a few years back, though he probably forgets. By the way I bought some gold calls a while back with spot above $360, Don. Ahem....
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 15:42
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com): - NotaGoldBug - We seem to have the same approach to trading some of these markets. If you want to exchange some ideas send me your e-mail address.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 15:33
APH ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;>(;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;): - Puetz - My oldest daughter is a student a Purdue University, she told me that same story 2 or 3 months ago.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 15:02
Puetz @ How to make money quick>(@ How to make money quick): - This is a true story: This past week, a fellow from Brookston, Indiana ( just North of West Lafayette where I live ) was driving along I-65 when he noticed a limo pulled off to the side of the road with a flat tire. It was the hottest day of the year -- about 95 degrees with high humidity.
The fellow from Brookston offered to change the tire and the chauffeur agreed. After the tire was fixed, the chauffeur offered the guy $100 for his friendliness and help. The kind man refused the money and said it was too hot of a day for anyone to worry about fixing a flat tire. He then smiled, went to his truck, and drove away.
A few day later, the local bank informed the Brookston native that his mortgage had been paid off. It seems that as he was driving away, the limo driver took down the license plate of the truck. In the back seat of the limo throughout the ordeal was none other than Donald Trump -- who was traveling from his Hammond, IN casino to his Evansville, IN casino. Trump was so pleased with the jesture, that he paid off the mortgage for the Brookston fellow. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 15:01
mikeharry slowday@work>(slowday@work): - I just finished reading the late Andrew Sarlos' book, Fear, Greed & the End of the Rainbow. Pretty good read about the supposed coming stock market debacle. He was no gold bug though.....
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:56
George s. Cole mine closures>(mine closures): - Lefty: The SA golds are high-cost producers. If prices go below $330 for a few months, expect a wave of mine closures and dividend cuts. Unions also pushing for sharp wage increases. I don't think this will happen, but it cannot be ruled out entirely.
There is no telling how bullion may go on this spike, but it is not likely to STAY under $330 for long ( if indeed it gets there ) . A significant stay under $330 will force the closure of many mines, primarily but not entirely in South Africa. I don't think the anti-gold warriors want to see this happen. It would make the inevitable rebound much more violent.
Still seeing more posts talking about bullion declining to $300 or lower. Very encouraging! I can't remember the last time anybody mentioned the possibility that bullion would ever go over $400 again. Very very positive from a contrarian perspective - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:47
Puetz @ Pessimism>(@ Pessimism): - WW: In 1974, pessimism toward stocks was so great, that 1 year later, during the Fall of 1975, I remember individual investors that I talked to were still talking doom-and-gloom -- even though the Dow had recovered 60%. I wasn't until 1983 that investors started becoming positive again on the stock market.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:47
Speed mulling the possibilities>(mulling the possibilities): - Mr. Puetz: If we deflate, per your prediction, then isn't it possible that my mortgage and car note holders would default or go into bankruptcy? My paper debt could be purchased at a big discount by anyone with real money! : ) On the other hand, if we hyperinflate, I will pursue my creditors and pay them back without mercy.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:43
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - ALL: Make sure you buy gold and silver coins for the right reason -- to guard against a violent deflationary collapse. If you're buying to protect against inflation, you're buying for the wrong reason and you may become confused as recession turns into depression and prices spiral down-ward. You must understand how gold and silver protect you against a deflationary collapse.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:40
Puetz @ Kid Silver>(@ Kid Silver): - Kid Silver: It's possible that gold could decline to under $300 in the first big deflationary collapse. However, gold and silver coins are still the safest place to have your assets because a lot of financial-paper will be defaulted on or become nearly worthless. So it will be better to risk a 10% loss in real money ( gold and silver ) than risk a 100% loss by holding onto paper.
But, at some point, the movement out of paper and into gold will overwhelm deflationary pressures. It could happen tomorrow if foreign central banks keep dumping US Treasuries as they have during the past two weeks. Or gold may not respond for a few more months. The risks are so great, however, that in either case it's urgent to get into gold and silver coins immediately. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:39
Mike Sheller drive a fiat >(drive a fiat ): - DONALD: No Euro gold coin struck during the Dark Ages eh? Is that anything like no nation backing its citizen's currency with gold since 1930's? Great insight about how easy it is to lose technology and knowledge of all kinds. I have 4 computers in my life, and if I'm away from any one of them long enuf I've forgotten what button to push or icon to click on.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:35
Mike Sheller feelin' semi mental>(feelin' semi mental): - RON: re your 11:32 on China - Very wise comments. Thanks, I needed the perspective. I just worry sometimes 'cause I have loved ones living in the PRC. I want to see the bright side of what I do acknowledge to be a highly problematic situation.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:32
Puetz @ Have read Barron's >(@ Have read Barron's ): - The big news today: Margin debt on the NYSE increased by a record $7.1 billion during May!!!! Outstanding margin debt is now $106.01 billion. Investors may not be buying, but speculators sure are. Wait until the first big stock downturn -- when the margin calls start flying. In one form or another, most stocks are being purchased on margin these days. Corporations sell bonds to buy back shares and merge, consumers refinance their homes to buy stocks, speculators use options, futures, and margin debt. Borrow, borrow, borrow to buy stocks. The big news is: It won't take much of a downturn to wipe out the equity these speculators now have. Once, that happens, they will have lost their net-worth in stocks, but they'll still have the debt to repay. That's a very bleak situation.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 14:31
Mike Sheller $ cost average gold>($ cost average gold): - WW: Keep the faith, man! POORBOYS has it right-on when he says to buy, buy, buy. He's talking about bullion. Let's get physical. ( The 70's aphorisms are to get you back in the groovy gold mood ) The Astrological Investor, my other identity on the 'net, was warning since June of '96 ( my goodness, how time flies! It's a year already. ) for visitors to watch for stress on gold in the spring of '97. The rec was to dollar cost average bullion coins as tho you were making the payment on your 4x4. This way, over 18 months ( my assessment then, & still in place ) one could amass a reasonable hoard of gold over some nice prices. Actually, within reason of course, the lower gold goes once such a program has begun, the better off one is. I think we are still very much within reason, and would continue to be even if some of the more bearish Kitcoites were proven correct ( I don't accept things like $200 gold, no way ) . Day-traders and short-term in and outers are ALWAYS living in a state of angst. They love it. Ignore them. Last chance, last dance, will be winter of '97/'98. Then, I would have to definitely side with Poorboys about the turn of the century being hot for gold. The next leg of the 5 wave bull begun in 1934 will commence. It will be the THIRD wave. Usually the longest, but with gold the fifth is often the most spectacular. Unfortunately we'll be dead when that one spikes. Reincarnation anyone?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 13:52
vronsky TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)>(TWO GREAT - AND STILL UNKNOWN - GROWTH STOCKS (The Dines Letter)): - Venerable Jim Dines Does It Again: He found 2 gold stocks defying the big bad bear in precious metals: EURO-NEVADA & FRANCO-NEVADA. A Unique gold concept ( 6/28/97 ) . SEE Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 13:39
Don Croucher gmr97@usa.net>(gmr97@usa.net): - Greetings, Just to let you know of another forum for discussion exist at the our website.Go to the classified section to see our posting.Email us
direct at my address to receieve our a free Newsletter primarily on Resource Stocks.If you would like to receieve same,please email us. Look forward to hearing from you
regards
don - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 13:27
Donald @Home>(@Home): - RON: Sack-O. With due respect, the Mainland Chinese you see on the Internet must have access to computers and can not be considered average. Someone described the current political leaders of China as gangsters. They are thinking about their own enrichment at the expense of the rest of the population. Their comments would not seem to be representative of the majority. Most, I hope all, Americans, are interested in their personal enrichment also, but we are not willing to tolerate virtual slavery, a police state, a controlled media and the rest of that garbage to get it. Ask George III about 1776, he remembers.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 13:13
WW @New England>(@New England): - The reason the economy isnt overheating is that it is really weak and the growth is fueled by debt. The stk mkt wealth effect is muted because the benefits of the stk mkt advance are skewed. In fact the reasons the stk mkt is going up relates to downsizing and thus earnings growth. This has hurt the std of living of many versus the relatively few stk mkt investors.
RE Strength in economy: THE BIGGER THE LIE THE MORE THEY WILL BELIEVE IT..... J. Goebbels.
J. Goebbels name for Nazi Germany in the 1930s the land of the smile.
Somebody on CNBC should use this one again for the US. Then again the way they spin things I guess they have.
nuf said - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:59
Steve - Perth @Lies & More Lies>(@Lies & More Lies): - US Economy running at 90 miles an hour without overheating the engine?
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/27/b3534112.htm - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:59
Byron @ For What It's Worth Department:>(@ For What It's Worth Department:): - From the Winspear thread: http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/s-9996/reply-2092
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:52
Steve - Perth @Ka-Boom!>(@Ka-Boom!): - Japanese Big Bang in Business Week
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/27/b3534163.htm - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:43
WW @New England>(@New England): - The more that are in the greater the bear. 90% of monry in stks since 1991. If mkt went down ten percent and did not rebound for 3 or 4 months that would be too much pain and the incoming money would slow and outgo would increase voila the bear. As this process continued the cycle would become more vicious. This is why I believe there is a fund used by the big firms in the S&P futures to make sure the declines are brief and limited and that after their rescue the money naturally starts to flow in thus allowing the bull to continue. Of course they are creating a bigger bubble by doing this. Just ask Japanese, Taiwanese and Koreans whose mkt were artificially supported. There is no tolerance for pain in this mkt too much expectations and too important too the current feel good mentality espoused by the press and politicians. Consumer confidence is high because of this constant dispensation of sugar/ however, the bankruptcies and high debt levels tell the real story. As the French newspaper stated the US economy is booming on all US business pages and US television screens. The US economy is like a Picture of Dorian Grey the stk mkt bear will reveal the true face.
And..there you have it!!! - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:43
Steve - Perth steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - PANDA: Sorry for putting you to all that trouble! But it looks more Elliot-Wave-like now, don't you think Go 5, Go 5!!! In addition, my spellcheck ( both US & Australian edition ) tells me that you spell yeilds as YIELDS. Keep up the good work!
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:24
panda @>(@): - WW -- How do you think the stock bulls will feel when this shoe is on the other foot? A ten percent decline in a month, and they call that a BEAR? Then the rally to new highs... Imagine a real bear of eighteen months to two years in duration. OH BOY! :- ) )
I wonder if the MF people will hold up as well as we have?
Bear markets are psychologically debilitating, they usually cause you to sell at or near the bottom, thus the selling climax...
BBL - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:16
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Redneck: So, clean up Ameerika, get a haircut. Rev. 13.13. Backsliders. you were warned............ Redemption is to be found in a haircut. Eh? With regulation side walls I suppose?
Maybe it's time for an ancillary support group: Backsliders Anonymous. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:16
WW @NewEngland>(@NewEngland): - I am suffering from gold fatigue. No matter the logic or the arguments it is becoming painful to think about gold. Does everyone on Kitco ( including GSC ) have to give up all hope. Does anyone remember the stk mkt low of 1974 was the desperation the same as gold now/how about sentiment at other gold lows. Of interest was the down beat tone of the gold producers conference in London. These people are perennial cheerleaders for gold/ could this be a contrary indicator. If gold were to go to 290 and stay there a awhile I believe that would clean the slate for the secular bull. Is my pessimism a contrary indicator. In my heart the situation for gold looks hopeless and for financials it lloks great. Is this contrary indicator?
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:07
panda @follow.the.colors.on.the.chart>(@follow.the.colors.on.the.chart): - Here is a monthly chart of the thirty year bonds. It is somewhat courser than the weekly chart, but it does reveal some interesting things. I don’t trade bonds, and this is not investment advice! Lines drawn on a chart are just that. I see what I want to see, and you see what you want to see. With that caveat aside.....
It looks like we are reaching a cross road here. Alternate scenarios appear to be these;
1] Arise above seven percent, and a bear market in bonds?
2] A failure of the triangle that could lead us in to a trading range of 6 to 7%?
3] A failure of the triangle and a bond market rally to ?
Given the news of late, Hashimoto and U.S. Bonds, the Chinese take over of Hong Kong, and never ending prosperity, I think that option #1 is the most likely. Time wise, it seems to be pointing to some problem occurring late in Q3 or during Q4. What this is, I have no idea. Quit frankly, I’m surprised that the chart has been as accurate as it has. I could not have envisioned the rates on the Long Bond coming down as they have. If you have a booming economy, I would expect the demand for credit to be higher. This should cause interest rates to rise as more people compete for the available pool of capitol. The assumption here is that, like any resource, capitol is ‘scarce’ and would be allocated by need. This need would be reflected in the interest rate, ( the ‘price’ ) , people would be willing to pay for the capitol.
As to the FED controlling interest rates, that is a laugh. They follow the long end of the market. They can’t afford to lose credibility. Actions by the Federal Reserve in this year are amazing. The FED has been doing coupon passes left, right, and center. These coupon passes are monetizing the debt. It is the creation of money out of nothing, so what else is new. The Treasury sells some Bonds, Notes, Bills and the Fed buys the leftovers that the market can’t absorb. The government gets, ‘cash’, and goes on its spendthrift ways.
Think about this, the Treasury creates a book entry T-Bond, the Fed buys the T-Bond as a book entry. The Fed now has assets on its books ( T-Bond ) , and gives the government cash ( a book entry ) . Nobody has to ‘print’ money anymore, it’s all a book entry.
This is what makes Hashimoto’s mention of selling T-Bonds/Notes so interesting. Not only that, but he used a four letter word that scares the paper peddlers more than a sunrise scares a vampire, GOLD. That barbarous relic that is a conclusion of payment in and of it self. Could this be why Rubin came out and said that our markets are so deep and liquid that they could handle the Japanese selling our debt? Is this why the European Central bankers are getting the Holocaust gold, and not the survivors? If gold is so worthless, why are the Central Bankers so terrified of its mention? Why did Pharo speak Moses’s name before he died? ( I know, it was only a movie, but... ) Speaking of Pharo, I wonder what Greenspan thought of Hashimoto’s comments? Something like, “Damn that Hashimoto! Now we have to buy MORE of that paper!”
Ask yourself the question, “Why do I have to invest my money?” The standard answer is, “Inflation will destroy your savings.” So you accept a debt instrument as payment, but it’s not a final payment. You need to ‘invest’ it so the stored ‘value’ of your labors will not suffer putrefaction because you hold a depreciating debt instrument. What a game....
Sorry about the length of this post. I know long posts are a bore to read, but I didn’t realize that I was going to be so long winded. :- ) )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 12:01
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Cycles in American Gold Prices shows evidence of a 22.11 year cycle between tops.The next top would be around 2002.The shorter cycle 5 year 5 month could be of use.1980 high.1985 low.1990 high.1996 low.2001-2002 high.Using a phase correction of 15% the bottom should arrive this year.Anyone sad about their Gold holdings should be adding to positions long term not speculating their assets down the drain with puts and calls.Now and in the next few months let your true greed show buy buy buy .Happy Trails
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 11:38
nailz BACK FROM TRIP>(BACK FROM TRIP): - ALL....Just back from nice trip down Florida Atlantic coast and then over to Gulf of Mexico....I have discovered a law of nature that should not be broken...There should be an age limit for those to wear speedos, bikinis and thongs...Around 40 max, I guess. See that you all have caused the metals to fall out of bed while I was gone....You can still expect to see lower prices for gold and silver before the bottom is in....With the increase in volitility and volume, it shouldn't be long now....Days,weeks, months....Who knows ? Hope all the goldbugs have their physical positions in place, or are putting the finishing touches on them...Soon time to tackle the paper....Right now all it would take is a move from the east to sell treasuries and buy gold and paradigms would change overnight as would prices....Be vigilant !!!!! All the pieces are in place !!!!
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 11:37
Speed @work >(@work ): - Redneck: Thanks for reminding me to get a haircut. I get so busy I just don't make time for the important things.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 11:32
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Mike Sheller: We must be careful not to draw inferences about whole populations based on a sample such as our own small circle of friends and acquaintances. I, too, know many Chinese, even many who are studying here in the US, and are not Americanized. But their opinions may not be very representative of views widely held in China.
Last year, during the crisis in the Formosa Strait, when we were engaged in another one of our outrageous throttling initiatives against China -- throttling, no doubt, in the same sense that we throttled Sadam when he made his murderous grab for Kuwait -- I spent a lot of time lurking in the soc.culture.china newsgroup because I wanted to understand how native Chinese viewed the events unfolding there. The flood of invective gushing forth from the mainland was breathtaking in its scope. With all due repect, Michael, it is *not* merely directed toward our politicians, but to _all_ things American. And it was as real and as genuine as shoe leather.
Only very, very bad statisticians approach the world attempting to confirm their preconceptions. I certainly haven't done that. I was quite complacent about China and she was the last thing on my mind as a threat to world peace until these recent developments.
We certainly shouldn't ignore China's behavior, nor swallow whole the livestock-management dreck issuing forth from our or China's established press. IMHO, China will again pose a military challenge for the West long before it poses an economic one. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 11:13
redneck yard@bird.edu>(yard@bird.edu): - Ain't dem dare coomputers wunerful? Ah gots all you goldbuggers
in one place. I done tole you uns I waz ganna slap youall
up side the head. But would you listen? No. So I just
had to blow through all your stops yesterdey, yas sir. Just
you wait til Monday. Been working on exterminatin you
goldbugs fir ah longest time. You must have missed that
the financial wire security code was broken about a week
and a half ago Now, my good-fer-nothing brother inlaw can
go to work. Won't even have to use those precious paper bank
notes neather. Just nulls/pluse. ( 0/1 ) . He's going to
buy all the CBS gold and put it in a dummy corp. Pay for it
with wire transferes. ( won't even be worth wire ) Since no one
will bidding to buy the price will go down and my dumb
brother in law will corner the gold market.
By that time most gold mines will have closed up and New York
will be grinding up gold bars to mix in with the winter
street salt supply as gold reflects nicely on the black streets
in the headlight beams. Soon the Asians, etc will be hungry
for gold at any price. No one will have any gold. Not even
the CIA or the politians. So, clean up Ameerika, get a haircut.
Rev. 13.13. Backsliders. you were warned.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 10:59
Lefty /What up in SA>(/What up in SA): - The South African Gold stocks are really in the tank.. Some yielding
over 10%. Any ideas if this is politcal or just because of price of
Gold? - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 10:55
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http://www.gold-eagle.com
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 10:50
Donald @Home>(@Home): - MIKE SHELLER, STEVE of PERTH: I looked up some Dark Ages coinage information. Not a single European gold coin was struck during a 400 year period between the fall of Rome and Charlemagne 814AD. Talk about hard times. Mike, regarding our technology: The Europeans forgot all the technology that the Greeks and Romans had learned. It wasn't until after the Moors were defeated in Spain in 1013 that the Library of Cordoba revealed that technology to astonished Europeans of the day. If we have to spend all day hunting, fishing and looking over our shoulders there is not much time for the computer.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 10:19
vronsky Mike Sheller (@the Great Wall):>(Mike Sheller (@the Great Wall):): - Mike: Many thanks for your insightful thoughts about what China is and will become. Also, kudos for your gift of expression - I am envious.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 10:06
George s. Cole outlook>(outlook): - RON: Thanks for the feedback!
Earl: My changing definitions of a goldbug post was meant to show how drastically sentiment has fallen. And depressed sentiment implies high risk/reward ratios. The gold bear is handing out a few final savage swipes, but I am more convinced than ever that a secular bottom is getting close. The more posts I see speculating about declines to $300 or lower, the more convinced I become that a bottom is much nearer than most think
From an opposite tack, the large number of Wall Street gurus now projecting Dow 10,000 or higher by next spring makes a steep dive this fall more likely than ever.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 09:58
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - II (30 June 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - II (30 June 1997)): - JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD! ( PART - II ) . Per global financial experts - “It’s Inevitable”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 09:55
panda @>(@): - Ron -- Thanks for the URL on copper.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 09:53
panda @>(@): - Steve ( Perth - Western Australia ) Regarding 07:42 --
I figure my broker uses the 'new math' on occasion, so why shouldn't I? :- ) )
Donald -- Regarding the Dark Ages, entirely possible. One only has to look at the 'multicultural' fiasco to see the seeds of destruction. Let's face it, people like to live with their 'own'. By 'own', I mean similar backgrounds in education, religious belief systems, work ethics, economic status, etc. When you force 'diversity' in to a community, you usually wind up destroying the community that was and create something that no one wants. This leads to the upper classes fleeing to other 'nicer' neighborhoods. Meanwhile, the previous community sinks to the lowest common denominator, and it shows.... - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 09:11
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Mike Sheller A few thoughts on China
After the Hundred Flowers campaign in 1957 came the Cultural Revolution of 1966 which was an attempt by Mao to destroy the middle class which lasted til 1977.The country has been involved in four wars Korea,Tibet,India,and Vietnam.With Uranus now in Aquarius full industrialisation should take place but with Neptune's underworld arrival trade wars will be a yearly event.China does not want to recognise copyright law and the Neptune transit will certainly not help.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 09:01
Mike Sheller afraid of the Dark>(afraid of the Dark): - Donald: Your dark Ages analogy is chilling and, I fear, appropriate. I seriously believe we are on the verge of a potential mini Dark Age that will breed chaos, degeneration, and disintegration of societies and institutions. The state of philosophy, art, and culture is usually an excellent leading indicator, if you will, of what is in store for generations to come. These aspects of our civilization are in disintegration and limbo. Our technology is our only remaining god, and while commendable in its service and practicality, is not something human beings should worship. The next century will be profoundly problematic...but, then, aren't they all?!
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 08:54
Mike Sheller On the Path>(On the Path): - STEVE ( PERTH ) : A 32 year old seeking wisdom! That in itself is a sign of great wisdom. Seek and you will find. Yes, the true gold is the spiritual gold. The ancient alchemists were reputed to have spent their lives seeking to turn base metal into gold. The true alchemy, of which these tales were allegorical, is the refining of the lower nature of man to conform to the promptings of the higher nature. Verily, Steve , you have chosen the better part.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 08:28
Speed going to work :(>(going to work :(): - Steve Kaplan's page is very encouraging. If you have taken a beating on gold this past week,read and be glad you are ahead of your peers. Find him at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html. Barron's is instructive today for one reason. No one, not even the most ardent bull can explain or support by argument the present stock market. They are all amazed, or words to that effect. The stock market is now being compared with Japan's in the 80's. Scary thought.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 08:21
bw Re: Mooney, cheap gold>(Re: Mooney, cheap gold): - Excellent story on the Louis d'Ors. When we were kids we had fun with this concept. Get a crisp five and ten dollar bill. Go door to door selling them. We would charge 2.50 for the five and 4.00 for the ten. Not a single person would bite. However today I am not so sure. Incidently on the subject of fake money. I am told you can not pay for anything in the Bahamas with usa $100 dollar bills. They will take 50s, 20s, anything but $100s. The banks must be stiffing them. If so this may spell the end of a world-wide growth industry, the exporting of usa 100 dollar bills.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 08:09
Donald Cold War>(Cold War): - MIKE SHELLER: Your reference to the Cold War struck one of my pet peeves. During the 1992 Presidential Campaign President Bus was fond of saying The Cold War is over and we won My feelings were, and remain, there are were no winners. Russia is broke and disintegrating, we are broke and could follow shortly. All the tribes of the world are fighting amongst themselves, re-igniting long stiffled, centuries old hatreds. In a way it reminds me of 476AD. With the Romans gone it took only a hundred years for the Dark Ages to begin. That was an economic event that could be easily repeated today. It will be two centuries before the world knows who really won the Cold War.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 08:06
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - Gold is not dead, but seriously folks here is a story about the death that might bring some life to you all.
A man placed some flowers on the grave of his dearly departed mother and started back toward his car when his attention was diverted to another man kneeling at a grave. The man seemed to be praying with profound intensity and kept repeating, Why did you have to die? Why did you have to die? The first man approached him and said, Sir, I don't wish to interfere with your private grief, but this demonstration of pain is more than I've ever seen before. For whom do you mourn so deeply? A child?
A parent? The mourner took a moment to collect himself, then replied, My wife's first husband. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 07:44
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) @I forgot>(@I forgot): - Should have posted this news item.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/z0000_z00_12.html - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 07:42
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - PANDA: Great Bond Chart. But wouldn't 1=0, 2=1 etc & 5=4?, with 5 to come nearer the apex of the two merging lines? Then it breaks out like the furies in August/Sept?
CAPTAIN BILL: Thanks for your info re: Chart updates on The Privateer. Could I ask a huge favour. Could you please update the DOW JONES Chart on the main page. ( The 10 year one showing the crash ) . A TOP chart.
ROEBEAR: The hard core Kitco-ites had a splurge recently on what they believed in. One of those potentially dead Sundays that could visit this site that turns out becoming highly philosophical, yet interesting. I enjoy the change of direction now & again. I trust that everyone else here has the grace to endure my point of view, as I do theirs. So yes, I do believe the Bible. It is interesting after compiling the full listing of GOLD in the Bible, we find that it is referred to so many times. It is virtually mentioned in every book of the Bible. And it has been around a lot longer than the US Dollar has!! ( at least 6000 years longer ) There is something in that. Success comes from Wisdom, & wisdom can be found in the Bible. The key issue is that we do NOT worship Gold, but appreciate its value in the overall scheme of things. You can have all the gold in the world, but it cannot buy you good health, either now or in eternity. Seek wisdom, because wisdom is of God. I find this hard as a 32 year old. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 07:03
Mike Sheller @the Great Wall>(@the Great Wall): - RON: re Richard Grenier's column quoted: Chinese who say today we find America rather disgusting are referring to its political leadership. Many Americans feel the same way, myself included. In any nation, big or small, one can find people to interview and brains to pick, that will give you any range of answers you are looking for. Just look at this site where everyone is of the same interest. While doubtless there are many Chinese who feel as described, I seem to be in contact with some different Chinese characters than Mr Grenier. The takeover of Hong Kong will not be a crisis. The throttling by America , and China's reactions in the economic and political spheres are manifestations of old confrontational habits and the management and control freakishness of beaurocrats everywhere. The handwriting is on the great wall. China can no more be contained than an ocean can be drained. China will be a superpower and the US will have to respectfully, and CREATIVELY deal with this evolving fact or find itself in another bankrupting paranoid military buildup, resource wasting situation. Back to nuclear standoffs and mushrooming defense budgets? I think not. We have still not fully paid for the last cold war with the USSR, and most of our economic disasters to come will have been proven seeds sown inTHAT madness. The answer is to fight China with Freedom ( the principles underlying which the current administration in America knows little about ) . The young Chinese who are ambitious , intelligent, and aware ( the ones who will count for the future ) are still very enamored of the principles and the sense of life that they know has made America, and the west, so appealing. Still. While party and political functionaries will do anything to hold on to the illegal and special power they think they have over the unthinking citizens of any nation, these thugs and looters will be brushed aside by the kids who have been born to a new, eclectic world. The smart, the open, the intelligent and unafraid will find each other, and make a better world. The rest of the population, unfortunately, will always be a drag on progress, and, in their ignorance and proclivity to be stirred by power-hungry despots, a danger to stability. All we have to do is be true to our Freedom-loving roots. The alternative is beyond rational contemplation.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 03:59
Donald @Your Post>(@Your Post): - Scotty: Received your E-Mail. Thanks.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 03:39
Bonnie & Clyde Rough Day>(Rough Day): -
Bonnie: Clyde did you bury those coins we traded for the new fifties. The trip was real nice, we should do it again.
Clyde: They are well hidden in the back 40, by the old elm.
Bonnie: I'm getting bored, nutin to do in this one horse town; what'ya say we do another job?
Clyde: Good idea pumpkin, paper seems to be in.
Bonnie: I'm poop'd, nite Clyde.
Clyde: Nite Bonnie. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 03:22
Jack The slayer's of their dragon>(The slayer's of their dragon): -
To create the perception of a positive outlook, gold must be be seen as the villan, a relic with no purpose.
Merill Lynch uses Ted Arnold to stomp the metal and keep the stock bull alive; while Union Bank ( of the world ) employes Andy Smith to perform that duty and keep UBS's currency operations and interest rate derivatives alive and well.
I see the vapors of a heavy sweat rising from the canyons of Wall Street and the streets of ancient Zurich and
freezing in the upper atmosphere to come crashing down on the evil deeds of both. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 02:31
FIBO @down but not out yet!>(@down but not out yet!): - I must say that I am extremely discouraged at the recent gold and xau action. A few weeks ago ,gold ended up taking out the april weekly close low of 341.50 from April 18. I definately thought that wouldn't happen. I will be very interested to see how it closes out the month on monday. The possibility exists ( although looking mighty slim at this point ) that we could rally to close above the low monthly close of April of 341.20. Should this actually happen, then my somewhat faulty TA tells me to expect July to be one of the strongest months for the metals since Jan '96. But, if you really want to make money, just fade whatever I say. :- )
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 02:23
Ron Producer Hedging in Australia Driving AU Down>(Producer Hedging in Australia Driving AU Down): - Hong Kong markets closed next week 'til Wednesday for holiday. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/ec_y0023_3.html
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 02:09
Ron Excerpt from Richard Grenier's Column in this Weekend's Washington Times>(Excerpt from Richard Grenier's Column in this Weekend's Washington Times): - . . . . After years in which the Middle East seemed to be the world's greatest trouble spot, China now presents itself at the center of the world's stage with a whole series of near-crises: the coming takeover of Hong Kong; the brutal repression of Christianity; the suppression of the ethnic identity of Tibet; and a host of other human rights violations. It is the estimation of Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro -- both former China correspondents, writing in their recent book, The Coming Conflict with China -- that America and China are on a collision course. Despite occasional gestures of warmth and harmony, the strategic partnership between the two countries recently promoted with such fervor, they say, is now only a memory. And Chinese-American relations are at their lowest point since Richard Nixon's historic trip to Beijing 25 years ago.
. . . . It will come as a surprise to the multitudes of Americans who don't read Chinese that for some years now the Chinese press has described America as China's enemy -- I repeat,enemy. A Chinese foreign affairs specialist said last year in an interview with a Western correspondent, In present circumstances, it's very politically correct [in China] to describe the U.S. as a sinister superpower, a dangerous enemy, a superpower bully.
. . . . Five young Chinese intellectuals -- paradoxically most of them veterans of anti-government democracy movements -- shortly after the 1996 face-off between China and the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait wrote a book called China Can Say No. Angrily denouncing the United States, it quickly became one of the biggest bestsellers of recent Chinese history. One of the authors said in an interview in Beijing, When we were students, we yearned for American novels and movies. But today, we find that country rather disgusting.
. . . . And the anti-American movement in China has continued to gain strength. The word used most frequently in Beijing to describe U.S. policy toward China is containment, by which the Chinese mean a policy aimed at keeping China weak, without influence, and poor. Now an American scholar has pointed out that the two Mandarin characters we'd been translating as containment would be more accurately rendered as throttling. And throttling is now in constant, everyday use. Anytime the U.S. resists Beijing on anything, anywhere, we're trying to throttle China. In the mid-1990s an extraordinary closed meeting of China's top military and foreign-policy experts representing the Chinese Communist Party, the People's Liberation Army and the Party's Central Committee, met in Beijing. The final report leaked. It began: Whom does the Communist Party of China regard as its international archenemy? It is the United States. - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 01:21
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com): - Puetz ( Jun 27 22:33 ) Thank's Steve. I enjoyed putting that letter together. BTW, can I start sending it to you via e-mail now. You would have got it last weekend.
Earl ( Jun 27 23:11 ) Japanese have to raise their rates to try and keep investment capital in the country. Right now, it's all flowing out, mostly to the U.S., to take advantage of higher rates, not to mention a higher market.
Many on Kitco point out the bath that Japan would take if U.S. rates went up. Heck, the Japanese have been taking a bath on U.S. debt holdings for ten years now! If they could stand an 80 Yen Dollar in 1996, they can stand higher interest rates in 1997. But the bottom line is that Japan has to get it's own rates up and it doesn't want to be the first to raise. The Japanese don't want to be blamed for a swan dive on Wall Street, thank you very much
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 01:14
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Panda: So many questions so little time.. Personally I do not see anything
catastrophic in gold. I was and am still looking at XAU 85... Dow will go
higher, I have resistance at 8800 after a brief correction.. Interest rates will go up
to 7.25% but not much higher with fed following. The economy is moderating after
a spectacular run and will continue growing at a nice clip.. I do not see inflation
mostly because of greed.. When something gets expensive there is always
someone willing to produce more of it cheaper to bring prices down.. Interesting
part about gold is that weather, natural disasters, shortages, don't seem to
have an effect on production.. It continues to be produced cheaper with no
apparent increase in demand.. Even jewelry is moving to other precious metals.. I just purchased a 1/2 gold 1/2 platinum ring for my wife.. Very beautiful.. Asians
love platinum and my jeweler said the shift to these exotic metals is dramatic..
I do hedge my investments. I enjoy stock options purchasing both puts and calls.
ABX being one of my favorites, currently puts and downside could be US$16.00..
I enjoy the techs.. Puts on TXN, DELL, INTC, UAL.. Calls on AVEI, HBOC, BAANF,
GP.. And others...
Many of these I've held for a while others I'm rotating as I speak.. I usually
purchase deep in the money options because of lack of premium paid..
I purchase the farthest out before the leaps to help me if my timing is off.. This
is where the smart option money usually resides.. Hmmm ran out of answers...
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 00:25
slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity): - Everyone...Some interesting insights on this URL http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/4915/index.html
Have a great weekend! - Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 00:20
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Panda -- It's not that you are putting anyone to sleep, it is simply a huge posting problem going on at this time.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 00:13
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - RJ -- Nice little ride down in the gold today, Heh? Felt 'good' to have some halfway decent movement in it for a change. And as for silver, I'm not a bit surprised that it hasn't followed gold down. That metal is looking 'GOOD'! BUT, there might be one more quick spike down due for it also. But not quite yet.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 00:05
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - RJ -- Nice little ride down in the gold today, Heh? Felt 'good' to have some halfway decent movement in it for a change. And as for silver, I'm not a bit surprised that it hasn't followed gold down. That metal is looking 'GOOD'! BUT, there might be one more quick spike down due for it also. But not quite yet.
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 00:03
Puetz @ Panda>(@ Panda): - Panda: You haven't put me to sleep. I thought I'd check in one last time before calling it a night. You said it better than I could have. Congratulations. Keep on posting!!!!
- Date: Sat Jun 28 1997 00:00
KidSilver @_almost_ready_to_buy>(@_almost_ready_to_buy): - Steve Puetz - If we are truely going to have a deflationary period; how low, in your opinion can Gold and Silver go?
Better to buy now or wait for much lower prices? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:50
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzz): - Well, I see that I've put everyone to sleep. Good night all.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:48
panda @>(@): - NotaGoldbug @ 20:24 -- What would cause interest rates to go lower? Why would this be good for stocks? What if interest rates stayed flat? What happens then?
If interest rates fell, would Puetz be right? A deflation? How would stocks fare then? What happens to the supply of credit?
If interest rates stayed flat, does the economy continue to 'grow' at the 5.9% rate that we are told it is growing at? It doesn't slow down or get overheated?
What about the Fed continuing to monetize the debt through incessant coupon passes several times a week?
I could go on, but I'm sure that I'm boring everyone by now. So, let's hear your side. Tell me how low you think gold will go. At what point do you think anyone will be interested in it? What do you think will cause it's price to rise? What scenarios do you envision for the stock and metals markets this year? Do you think we will see Dow 10,000 this year? Next year? Where do you think the Long Bond will be in three or four months, and how do you arrive at your conclusion? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:31
panda @>(@): - NotaGoldbug @ 20:24 -- Do I think a general stock market correction will cause people to jump on the gold bandwagon? Absolutely NOT. I would want to know the cause of the market correction first. What do I think will cause gold to rise? Turmoil in the ForEx markets. This will also take out the stock and bond markets.
As for getting real, Do you think this bull market in equities will go on forever? What are your thoughts on a correction in the equities market? Do you have any hedges planned for this eventuality? Do you plan on 'riding it out'? Do you think we will experience inflation rising in the next year or two? How would stocks react to this? It's clear to me that stocks are pretty much ignoring interest rates for now and have priced in nirvana. Cash flows in to mutual funds, year over year, have slowed considerably. I have my opinions, what are yours? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:30
Barb-ette @barbadoe ranch>(@barbadoe ranch): - Mr. NotaGoldbug: Please do not assign capital assets to speculations you may be unable to sustain. Convincing most here ( KITCO ) of your convictions will be fruitless or near-sighted at best. If the purchase of say.... 100 ozs. of bullion coin represents more than 2-5% of the funds you consider mad money, avoiding coin even @$300/oz. would be in your best interest. While I expect bullion coin purchases will be affirmed as a heads-up investment before the yk2 financial onslaught, it won't matter to me if this puppy goes to zero.
Best wishes to all! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:28
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Yes Earl, I would, for two reasons, I'm confident that I can tell real Gold, and at one tenth the value it would be like risking only $33.50 tp buy $335.00. But of course we are distracting from the important message of the storey with this aside. The main point of the storey from over two hundred years ago seems to be in effect RIGHT NOW! That point being, ( I repeat for those who are here and getting sleepy because its past their bedtime, Mickey's fans included ) ,
...people are so
suspicious by nature that they will not even accept real gold if it is offered them cheaply. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:23
ark blastedcore@sub.rosa>(blastedcore@sub.rosa): - I have to admit, my first impluse is to shift my gold funds
to the money market and wait for a 10% up turn. However,
I've done that in the past without making any bucks. So,geez
suppose the $200 forecast is right. Boy, this really
separates the wo/men from the boygirls.
Then there was the little boy answering the phone:
Is your mommy home? Ans. No ( in weak voice )
How about your daddy? not here either
Where are the police and firemen? Looking for me :- ) ) - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:15
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Mooney: Honestly now. If you were among the passersby; would you buy?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:15
panda @?>(@?): - NotaGoldbug @ 20:24
You said in part.... Panda, Are you suggesting interest rates are looking to move higher If so, why would you think this good for gold With lease rates for gold subject to increase's to the same degree...
Point one; Lease rates went higher for platinum and palladium. OK, there was a 'shortage', point is, the lease rates went higher. What did this indicate? Was anyone willing to lend the metal? How do the lenders of PA/PL feel today? Where is the lease rate?
Point two; Are you suggesting interest rates are looking to move higher
I'm not suggesting anything that the Long Bond chart isn't suggesting. As for higher interest rates stopping a gold price rise, you have to ask the question, Why are rates rising? The general answers might be inflationary pressures or credit worthiness concerns. After all, who would ever question the credit worthiness of a T-Bond? Hashimoto didn't, right? After all, T-Bonds, Notes, Bills are all backed by the promise to tax, right? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:11
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Bill Buckler: Do you think a US rate rise is in the cards? It seems to me that it would be a direct slap in the face of the Japanese. The US is certainly capable of carrying the insult but I'm not sure they want, or are prepared, to deal with the potential consequences.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:06
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - itsy bitsy trader: I couldn't help notice your comment on ALTA. I owned it in Jan 96 and it did well. The relative strength of ALTA in current conditions is worth paying attention to. My impression is that it has held up well recently and is apparently gathering some volume. The weekly OBV has also held up well in 97. It may be worth owning again.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 23:00
CHARLESTON.GOLDBUG @SULLIVANS.ISLAND>(@SULLIVANS.ISLAND): - Greetings,
It is raining buckets in and around Charleston. Global WARMING in action.
No one heeds the warnings of nature.
Perhaps, it will be an environmental Titanic which challenges the warm
and fuzzy attitudes which envelope the never ending paper chase. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:54
Puetz @ Deflation>(@ Deflation): - Looking at the CRB Index, it's obvious that deflationary pressures grow stronger with each passing day. This deflation may be negative to gold and silver short-term. But, long-term, it's more bullish to the precious metals than any other development imaginable. That's because, in a defaltion, all types of credit-market instruments become suspect. Gold bulls, don't lose heart, you may have bought for the wrong reason -- expecting inflation. However, deflation will ultimately be the factor that proves you right!!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:47
Puetz @ Barron's>(@ Barron's): - Barron's always has tremendous information each week. As always, I will scan Barron's for the latest info. I will update any new significant developments. Stay tuned to Kitco. See you tomorrow.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - George Cole @17:14: Changing definition of a goldbug: ..... That was cruel. .... ( :- ) ) ... It would be funny if it weren't so true. ... BTW, I was looking at XAU vs GC today and your thoughts about the XAU leading the move. The XAU also tends to diverge at the end of a move as well. Jan/Feb 96 is an excellent case in point. Gold was moving down - XAU up - for two months before the XAU reacted. Badly.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:41
Puetz @ Stability>(@ Stability): - Eldorado and Panda: There are others, but in particular, I notice that short-term price swings don't seem to influence your thinking as much as it does others. That's commendable, because rational thinking can never be influenced by short-term price moves. Short-term moves only affect speculators -- those using leverage in their investments.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:36
Puetz @ attitudes>(@ attitudes): - ALL: A tremendous flip-flop in sentiment between today ( very negative ) and Monday ( euphoric, after Hashimoto's comments ) . As far as I can tell, nothing has changed during this 4-day period except prices and attitudes. Anyone else notice?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:34
2BR02B? foghorn@coosbay>(foghorn@coosbay): - Mooney - he forgot M-I-C-K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E...Mickey Mouse, Mickey Mouse.
I must thank Steve of Perth for all the biblical references. After referencing them all I must confess I understand much less clearly. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:33
Puetz @ Bill Buckler>(@ Bill Buckler): - Capt'n: Just read your most recent letter. It was an excellent piece of work!!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:31
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - This is my first posting today. Previous postings using the Puetz handle were someone other than me. No, I have not turned bearish gold. Gold is still a great buy at these levels.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:25
who goes@there>(goes@there): - Hello this me is that you?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:25
Mooney @Louis,Louis,Louiiiiiee!>(@Louis,Louis,Louiiiiiee!): - Although I had promised that I would hold off with this storey until I felt that Gold had absolutely bottomed out, I am rescinding that promise as I can't wait any longer, and besides I feel that the bottom is relatively close in time if not absolutely place in U.S. dollar terms. Perhaps the posting of the storey will give a few more dozen fence-sitters the urge and the teeter-totter will finally reverse direction.
Louis 16th meets Ben Franklin
Story has it that, ( whether the setting or participants is accurate or not is not important, only the message ) , Benjamin Franklin in a meeting at his temporary residence just outside Paris, France spoke with other American diplomats, John Adams, the brothers Lee, and Ralph Izard.
Perhaps you will permit me, Franklin said, to relate a little story. A man was sitting on the Pont-Neuf a short time ago offering gold coins for sale, Louis d'Or both old and new, for which he asked two livres a piece, in other words a tenth of their value. Many of the passers-by stopped to listen, they examined the coins, which had the authentic ring, yet the man did not succeed in selling a solitary one of his Louis d'Or. Not a single purchaser could be found who was willing a risk a couple of livres in order to acquire a whole Louis.
Well, asked Ralph Izard in a depreciating tone, what about it?
The Louis d'Or were genuine, replied Franklin. It was all part of a bet. The man won his wager, for he had asserted that people are so suspicious by nature that they will not even accept real gold if it is offered them cheaply. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:16
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com): - Steve ( 27/6 15:20 ) Those interesting foreign currency Gold charts have just been updated at The Privateer: http://www.the-privateer.com/g-charts.html
Interesting that the rise in the $US negated the $US Gold fall in most other currencies. Also interesting - as Steve Kaplan points out - that open interest is rising as Commercials buy all the Gold they can get their hands on.
I personally am awaiting the FOMC meeting with great interest. Canada just raised rates 0.25% and Italy just lowered them 0.50%.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:15
Mac Free@last-(Soon)>(Free@last-(Soon)): - OH- At last, finally, thank god!!! after all this time! - To be a bear is popular. HO HO HO - I'm using all those ill gotten gains of last year to BUY - BUY - and BUY some more. The drop may not be over yet - but surely the upside reward potential has finally gotten to my comfort level. A few more down days and even the biggest bulls will be crying UNCLE. I'm about 35% in now and will be putting the rest of it in during the summer. The establishment plans to keep the wraps on the metals and other commodities - but they will have many oter things to worry about - SOON. Isn't it sad that we have increased deficits and unbalanced budgets and no one notices - YET! Once the dust starts getting stired up next month it won't settle down for the rest of the year. Take you metals long - and your S & P short - for the rest of the year.
AIN'T LIFE GREAT!!!!! Experiences!! That's what brings the BLISS!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:14
itsy bitsy trader@RAY @water spout>(@water spout): - RAY: I guess we'll find out soon on KRY. I with you. The best game in town. I also own BGO ( another stock with blue sky potential ) . Arizona Star seems like a good bet too ( don't own that one ) . The only gold stock besides KRY and BGO that I own is ALTA ( the is a more conservative long term play ) . Maybe in KRY and/or BGO take off in the next couple of months it will give the shorts something to think about. I wouldn't want to be short at these levels ( especially the KRYs and BGOs ) . The big boys need low cost properties. Best wishes.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:13
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Earl: I think there is a great difference between prescience to divine the future and expecting. Trying to see the future via rational arguments re: national debts and deficits rules out the trends of the day. Dismissing all government figures and statements as efforts to confuse and cover up is confusing. Assuming that inflation must be going up because gasoline is going up betrays an ignorance ( inflation measures are an average after all ) . Continue to repeat a whole bundle of self serving conclusions; add some disparaging comments to those who disagree with the consensus; add a little home spun commentary and next thing you know you have most of a highly interested and opinionated website backing the wrong horse. I'm not responding to your posts which I have followed for some weeks. Just a couple of ideas that have sort of become conclusions about gold bugs in general. One day they/we will be right of course.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:07
Entertainment Tonight Apology>(Apology): - Mooney, George: I offer my immediate apologies to you and any others who may have been offended by my post at 21:35. It was intended merely as an amusing afterthought to my Heard on the Street post, which was reasonably well received, at least by some. I understand that someone else was borrowing handles today. I assure you that person was not me - I would have thought that my posts were self-evidently not written by the persons mentioned within them. If I have breached the rules of Netiquette, I am sorry - in comedy, some things must be tried to test their effect. I will post no more such messages.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 22:05
Ron Swinging for the Fences>(Swinging for the Fences): - George S. Cole: I'm heeding it, I'm heeding it! Boy, am I ever heeding it. Put in a low-ball bid for a bunch of out of the money Dec calls today. The mkt closed within one tic of me. Will try again Monday. I've got my line in the water and plan to reel out another as soon as possible. Not too concerned if they expire worthless either, since I'm not betting so much that it'll change my life style if I lose. And I'm darn sure gonna stay in the gold game until the mkts and the world pull back from the precipice we're teetering on. The potential upside is just too enticing at the moment. Luv your commentary here, Mr. Cole ( I think you may be too distinguished for me to call you George ) . It's been tremendously helpful for us rookies. Thanks.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:59
Mooney @Cool.Water>(@Cool.Water): - If you would stick to non-spiteful humour Cool Cat, there is hope for you yet. As you know, I've pointed this out in the past.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:59
RJ Deposit WHAT?>(Deposit WHAT?): - Simple Man @ 11:43 - Send me a cashiers check for $65,000 and I’ll send you 100 oz gold, I’ll even pay the shipping. I will include a written guarantee to buy any or all of it back at $50 above high spot for the year. Meanwhile, I’ll use the 65K to buy platinum.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:54
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Thanks George. I just wanted to point out the fact ( which you have just helpfully confirmed ) that some asinine joker has been posting quite a bit today using other peoples' handles. If such nonsense is allowed to continue we will be spending half our time wondering or asking each other if that was really so and so who posted the last message. Everyone likes the odd laugh around here but posting using multiple ( or other people's ) handles should be verbotten. AAR as I promised earlier today I will shortly post the Ben Franklin/Louis 16th parable.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:54
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Thanks George. I just wanted to point out the fact ( which you have just helpfully confirmed ) that some asinine joker has been posting quite a bit today using other peoples' handles. If such nonsense is allowed to continue we will be spending half our time wondering or asking each other if that was really so and so who posted the last message. Everyone likes the odd laugh around here but posting using multiple ( or other people's ) handles should be verbotten. AAR as I promised earlier today I will shortly post the Ben Franklin/Louis 16th parable.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:50
2BR02B? coosbay@or>(coosbay@or): - ET-- Tsk, tsk.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:48
RJ Below is from RJ to D.A, >(Below is from RJ to D.A, ): - My mistake
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:46
D.A. Not this time.>(Not this time.): - Again, you call my bluff. I am but a bear for the passing moment. $300 is not out of the question this year, but I'll cover my shorts long before then. What's this about getting fleeced? Aren't you the one recommending options, when 98% + of all options expire worthless? The slots in Las Vegas have a better pay out than that. At least in Vegas, pretty waitresses bring you free drinks. My clients make more than they loose, that’s why they are still my clients. I covered 2500 oz gold today at $334.50, kept another 2000 oz. Sold it all at $348. I'm worried that the Asians and Indians will buy it up Monday. If not, I'll hold the rest for $330, if it does rise, I'll sell it into the dirt anywhere above $340. I think the difference between me and many here is, I don't care where it goes. Up, down, makes no difference to me. I think many here a too emotional about gold, thus my sad attempt at a limerick this morn. I'm having a great time in this market. That retail waiting to get fleeced remark was unkind and based on information you don't have. Next time, try not to get so personal. I'll match my trading program against any in existence, and posit that I make more profits for my clients. I've found your other posts to be knowledgeable and informative, but the last to me was a bit insulting.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:44
George s. Cole Steve Kaplan>(Steve Kaplan): - Those inclined to throw in the towel should read Steve Kaplan's latest analysis.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:41
George S. Cole sentiment>(sentiment): - MOONEY: That was me at 17:17, but an earlier post announcing my capitulation was not mine. Just wanted to put the definition of a goldbug into historical perspective and illustrate how drastically sentiment has changed.
Eldorado: Agree with you on short-term outlook.
Flamboyant money manger James Cramer authors a weekly column on the markets in one of our local New York papers. His latest is entitled, Take Your Gold Hashimoto, I'll Stick With The Dow. I'm sure this attitude is widespread among money managers and is very bullish in my judgement. Sentiment truly has reached or is very close to the point of maximum pessimism for gold and maximum optimism for stocks.
The bible teaches that excessive pride often leads to a big fall. Does this hold a lesson for today's super-arrogant stock market bulls and gold bears? I think so, but I doubt any will heed it.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:35
Entertainment Tonight Theatre>(Theatre): - Heard on the Kitco Street opened at 7:10 am to rave reviews.
Here are some of the things Kitcoites are saying about the new play...
I laughed till I stopped ( Tortfeasor )
It stunk ( Mooney )
( Ted )
I only caught a few minutes of it - I spent the rest of the time puking in the toilet ( Deaner )
Plays about the irrational exuberance of goldbugs often appear at the
end of a long-term bear market. 'Heard on the Kitco Street' could very
well herald the start of the long-term secular bull ( George S Cole )
I strongly deny these persistent rumours about any bearish tendencies on my part ( Panda )
Read a complete analysis of it at www.gold-chicken.com ( Vronsky )
I think the choice of Sharon Stone to play my part was a mistake. I have a much bigger chest than she does ( Blonde )
This play sucks. What's all the fuss about ? I made a great call on Monday. It was just a week or so out, is all.
So now they make a play about it ? I'm completely disgusted ( Steve Puetz )
When is it coming to Australia ? ( Steve - Perth )
Ah weesh that we had zee tee-atres for zee play-acting eere een zee Pyranees, by gar ! ( Bernatz de Ventadorm )
The fact that the actors could only speak their lines at 40 minute intervals was due to technical problems
beyond our control ( Bart Kitner )
They totally cut my part from the script ! ( Strad Master )
the sower of the wind shall reap the whirlwind. he who mocks the great spirit shall suffer the visitation of demons ( cherokee )
This play opens and the price of gold drops nearly four bucks. I can't wait for the sequel ( WW ) - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Fundy: You wrote: Those holding gold or shares will feel some panic but IMHO the vast majority of gold watchers have been expecting a major price decline for several months now.
Speaking only for myself; if I had known the true course of the gold market over the past several months; rest assured that I would gone flat to cash. Anyone with the prescience to divine the future course of any market would be an abject fool to do less. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:18
RJ I'll take THAT bet.>(I'll take THAT bet.): - Mike Sheller @ 19:44 - I agree with your scenario entirely but it contains a fatal flaw; the moon will be new! And you call yourself an astrologer.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:03
Eldorado @the flix>(@the flix): - Time to go. BBL.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:01
Ron Copper>(Copper): - Panda: http://www.yardeni.com has an 18-year chart for the spot price of copper scrap. Don't know if that is what you were looking for . . . I'd post it here for you, but I don't have a clue how to cut out a piece of a larger pdf file and post it here. If you don't have Acrobat Reader and scrap copper prices are what you need, let me know and I'll try to do it.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 21:00
vronsky The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)>(The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)): - Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:49
Scotty @don't forget Hong Kong>(@don't forget Hong Kong): - .....One more reason why I am all in on the gold market: Hong Kong. I want to be on the launching pad when ( not if ) the commies start marching around with their goons and tanks.
Of course, the whole thing could be very peaceful and the folks in Bejeing will understand and leave HK alone.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:48
vronsky SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE FUNCTION - Find What You Want RAPIDLY>(SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE FUNCTION - Find What You Want RAPIDLY): - 280+ pages of financial data, analysis, reports & studies - VIRTUAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PRECIOUS METALS. Use “SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE” button in HOT NEWS box to find what you seek - RAPIDLY:
http://www.gold-eagle.com
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:45
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - 2weeks @12:50: You said: Gold could go much lower, folks. The only thing you can build in times like this is character. It may take 15 years to get whole.
I say: 15 years of character building makes for thin gruel at breakfast time. ...... Philosophy, ethics and character building are the exclusive province of those with a full stomach! ...... ( :- ) ) - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:42
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Notagoldbug -- One addendum; It'll be a day when it'll really be heard that the 'King is wearing no clothes'! Who it will take to proclaim it as such still remains to be seen. But, just maybe, it has already been done! We'll see!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:41
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Eldorado: That is a wonderful way to invest... Out of fear of the unknown
Something is going to happen and it will be big.. I will not hold my
breath.. I can tell you this.. More money has been wasting waiting for such
things than was ever lost as a result of catastrophic events..
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Front @12:45: Just beginning to catch up on the day's gossip and I come upon your ill considered comment ( :- ) ) . Now that I have that chart postin' stuff down to a science; you ain't seen nothin' yet. If it be that my charts are the source of gold's ills, RJ and NotaGoldbug will look like optimists.
Got some longer term data comin' next week to support additional overlays, spreads and such. ...... In the meantime: It's Friday. Let's raise some hell! Whaddya say? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:34
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Notagoldbug -- It won't be a rate rise or a rate decrease in and of itself that'll cause gold to move up. Not this time! Let us just say that it'll be something a 'bit' more severe! Some real fear in the air! I will not claim to know what it'll be, but the trend of foreign governments not buying our debt begins to hit the mark! We'll all find out after the fact exactly what it was!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:24
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Panda, Are you suggesting interest rates are looking to move higher If so,
why would you think this good for gold With lease rates for gold subject
to increase's to the same degree... I still think you believe that an overall market
correction will cause investors to jump on the gold bandwagon.. Not.. Unless
the fundamentals for gold begin to look up or gold just gets so oversold that
it is very cheep.. Gold will Not be the investment of choice in a general
correction... Someday religious goldbugs will realize that it was wonderful
when we could trade our goods and services with paper money... Yes,
governments do exploit the fact that they can use this to their fiscal advantage...
I really believe that the majority of goldbugs are conspiracy type theorists and
just need the blanket of gold to keep them warm..
Does everyone realize that All investments are speculation? and there is no
speculation more dangerous that one that is confidently viewed by the majority
as an investment Take long bonds in 1946 or gold in 1980.... Or stocks in 1997..
Please get real!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:20
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - DONALD.........Regarding your early morning post......
Yes indeed, I agree this has been a doozy of a bear market. However, I've done OK selling on some of false rallies as they spike up. My rule of thumb is to jump out after a 10% ( or so ) rise ( I'm strictly in mutuals -- I wish I had time to play options and the like ) .
I look at it this way: 10% is a nice annual return on investment. Once I hit a 10% ( or so ) spike, I dump into 5% cash and wait. If that only happens once, I have a 15% annual return in any given year. I hit a 9% early this year. I'm now all in again and if I hit a 10%'er again, and soak my heels at 5%, then I have ( roughly ) a 22% return on the chunk of change I use for playing the gold market.
If the big one hits this time around, I'll be ready. If not, I'll catch the next one.
Regarding real estate in a deflationary market: as a matter of fact, I am starting to liquidate all my rental real-estate holdings. Three reasons: I'm done with the headaches; I can put the cash to better use; and I just don't see RE doing well in the next few years.
Where exactly is your money invested
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:14
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Mike Sheller -- I'm not that much of a betting man, else I might take you up on it. I typically have enough of a hard time with the next day, much less the next week, month, and year! I don't mind hearing the rational for a move or trend change, ( I haven't heard any beyond JRs I kicked it and it didn't move, for going down ) , But that's how I stay alive. Got to trade the day-by-day numbers. I don't do stox. I'm not typically in the market for more than a day or two on any given trade, unless it is clearly on a longer term trend. But, sometimes even less than a day, even though I don't consider myself as being a day trader! So far, I've survived quite nicely without prognostications. My REAL fundamentals are as I've spoken here. My day-to-day trading corresponds to the numbers the best I can make them do it. Sometimes, I get the opportunity to post them here when they become 'clearer'. Other times, they are murkier and I do not know what to do with them except to stand aside until the murkiness subsides. But of my postings of today, I'll be trading by them come Monday! And by that, I also mean Sunday night if necessary! This is not to be meant as any kind of slight against prognostications. I only want to clarify how I trade.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:10
EB Mike 19:44>(Mike 19:44): - Can you get me a price on those Jan.'00 Calls @ 1200 strike? Or should I wait till they come in $5.00 increments? Decisions, decisions...
And with all due and great respect...God and Gold? There is a time and place.
AWAY
EB - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 20:07
Donald At Home>(At Home): - Elliott Wave Theorist out tonight. Very bullish on gold near term.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:53
Mike Sheller c'mon, you wanna piece a me?>(c'mon, you wanna piece a me?): - OK, OK, how about 668.50 FOUR TIMES?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:52
Dave jdr72144@aol.com>(jdr72144@aol.com): - I have never posted on this site, but watch it constantly. Could someone just simply explain what would happen to gold if the interest rate is raised next week? I think it should go up, but I have seen the reverse stated.
Keep up the great dialogue....it's mind bending.
Dave
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:50
Mike Sheller In the spirit>(In the spirit): - STEVE ( PERTH ) : Nice to see the lord postingf on Kitco. It seems you are a believer, and one who has a warm spot for astrolgers. Blessed are you Steve ( from Perth ) for flesh and blood have not shown you that. All in the spirit must know, in the end, that the Real Gold is in the inner life. Store up treasure in heaven, Gang, along with the K-rands and Maple Leafs! By the way, how is your Saturday? Haven't had ours yet! This is better than astrology for predicting the future.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:46
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Panda -- Don't worry. It'll be jack-booted thug day soon enough. Can't happen any other way!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:44
Mike Sheller bettin the farm (funny farm)>(bettin the farm (funny farm)): - Here's my wager, take it or leave it: Gold hits 331 twice, then rallies to 348.50 four times, before falling to 338 once. Then a rise to 445, reaction to 389.90, and a spike to 551.65. ( Maybe three, four times ) . Puts on futures reach 300,000 three times, then gold goes to 668.50 once. reacts to 556.80, and tears to 855.45 before coming back to 773 twice. Tops out at 1200 once in the year 2000, and then comes back to a place as yet undetermined. All this under a Full Moon. I got a one ounce maple leaf in my pocket I use to pry caps offa Molson's bottles that says this will all happen. I'll put it up against anyone's 50 oz platinum bar any time. ( by Gar! ) Any takers? No? I thought so.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:30
panda @>(@): - I stand corrected in my last post, it wasn't a ruling for an industry, but a ruling narrowly made against, Jack booted thugs. I almost think they stood up for the Constitution. Wow, what a concept.... First a background check to purchase firearms, then a check for cigarettes, who knows? Perhaps we need a background check for gold bullion buyers? They are subversive, you know. :- ) )
Really gone now..... Back later... - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:30
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Panda -- I do not have tat kind of data about. I tend to go more with the flow of prices and trends than so-called fundamentals, though those are at least as important to support a trend or change in in trend.
Cherokee -- Corn maybe Tuesday! Maybe wheat also! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:23
panda @>(@): - Eldorado -- Just curious here, but do you or anyone else out there have a long term chart for SPOT copper? At least five years worth that they could post here? I saw a story last night that RevereWare ( the pots'n pans people ) will be raising prices due to the increase in base metals ( copper and zinc ) . For those asking, What has this got to do with gold? First, they're usually by-products of gold/silver mining. Second, copper and zinc are used in many industrial applications. If there are price pressures here.... Besides, the Supreme Court made a ruling in favor of one of those industries today. The kind that uses base metals like copper, zinc, and lead..... :- ) )
Be Back Later... - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:12
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Panda -- My current thinking is that is is VERY possible for the 'stox' to have a very bad day Monday! Can not say what the dollar or bonds will do though. I'll leave that for your postings.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:09
panda @>(@): - Boy! Talk about your bears! The Nightly Business Report had one on, a real live BEAR! Theis guy was bullish on the go-go tech stocks and is now looking for a twenty percent decline in the next four months. And here I thought they killed all the bears. :- ) )
Here's the Bond Chart, looks, 'constructive'. :- ) )
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:01
nomercy diehard>(diehard): - Panda...if they were to raise rates it would be caos...you'll never see it..they want a strong market to finance their HUGE DEBT...always creating misdirections to fulfil their needs...markets are dominated by manipulators...until catastrophe strikes...whence they cannot cover up...in the meantime their marketing psychology works...perception...perception...perception...its all smokes and mirrors...THEY NEED TO FUND THEIR CURRENT DEFICIT...AND SERVICE THEIR DEBT - 5 TRILLION and GROWING.....If things are so great and they still are running a deficit, what happens, when there's a further shortfall?...goldbugs bent but do not break...valued goods...whether for vanity or investment has and will have human emotional appeal...worldwide..time is nearing where the non-core investors will not be able to pass up the oppurtunity to buy...including RJ
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 19:00
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - I'm expecting another 3-4 dollar down day on Monday, then a very nice shot up! If I don't see that kind of down day Monday, I still expect a nice shot up! I'm talking about gold here. Perhaps even a nice outside reversal as a lot of shorts cover temporarily. Beyond that, I will not hazard an opinion.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 18:41
panda @>(@): - nomercy -- Looks like Reuter's needs a new keyboard! :- ) )
Just a thought, what if the FOMC raises rates next week? :- ) )
It's not so far fetched, after all the European Central Bankers have declaired the Nazis gold, theirs... And no one has complained.... So who is selling gold?
Long Bond chart coming soon. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 18:38
nomercy there's hope>(there's hope): - ...it might get a little worse before it gets much better...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/z0009_717.html - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 18:32
nomercy news release ahead of their time>(news release ahead of their time): - The spin doctors...news available now....quoting newsrelease of JUNE 29
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/y0004_z00_6.html - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 18:31
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - George Cole - YES! Please answer. Was that your post at 17:17? Regardless of whether it was or it wasn't, one or more of our 'entity' friends, ( ala John Dragoo Hepcat ) , has been posting lately using other peoples handles. I posted a message earlier today that 'someone' had posted a message at 10:03 using my 'handle'. It has since been erased by Bart, but I don't believe that this is the best way to handle the situation, or that Bart should have to shoulder all the extra work, trying to make up for the mental deficiencies of 'entities', that try and plague us with rude comments, or by posting using other peoples handles. I hope Bart can find a simple solution as soon as possible for everyone's sake.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 18:10
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - George S. Cole- was that you at 17:17?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:46
cherokee @what-next?>(@what-next?): - bt is history. he evidently asked for delivery and
was met with histrionic cackles and a selling spree.
i suspect a chinese silk-farmer with ties to the cali
cartel, who knows imelda marcos and ida amin dada
as the next market maven and mover. you heard it first
here! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:27
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - George.s.cole It's time for a new keyboard?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:23
Comments @learning fast>(@learning fast): - You are leaning fast. I mean learning fast.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:19
NJ XAU>(XAU): - Seems Rubin and Greenman were in the trading pits all day, one working Forex and the other Bondos and SPOOs. MF managers also pitched in. Markets were clearly underimpressed. http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=$INDU&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&ke.
XAU held up very well in the face of a steep decline in the price of gold. With due respect to NotaGoldbug, both DJII and XAU are signalling a turn for next week. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:18
Donald The Masters>(The Masters): - To Ron: Who are the masters in Hong Kong? Markets are the masters of us all. The Soviets found that out, the Chinese should have learned it during the Great Leap Forward. The US will re-learn it soon. The lesson has to be learned over and over again every few generations.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:17
George S. Cole goldbugs>(goldbugs): - Changing definition of a goldbug:
!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.
1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real
1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:16
George S. Cole goldbugs>(goldbugs): - Changing definition of a goldbug:
!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.
1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real
1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:15
George S. Cole goldbugs>(goldbugs): - Changing definition of a goldbug:
!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.
1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real
1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:15
George S. Cole goldbugs>(goldbugs): - Changing definition of a goldbug:
!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.
1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real
1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:14
Learning Fast @emotional roller coaster>(@emotional roller coaster): - I'm running low on powder and left my long position active longer than I will next time. I could sell , I could hold and maybe run out of powder or I could short an equal amount and ride down or take a small loss on the way up. I am leaning towards a straddle to limit a loss and possibly increase profits........Comments? Thanks in advance
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:14
George S. Cole goldbugs>(goldbugs): - Changing definition of a goldbug:
!980: Someone who believes the yellow metal is the best of all possible investments and should be held forever.
1996: Someone who believes the brief move above $400 is for real
1997: Someone who believes the gold bear will reverse north of $300.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:07
yellowdog @George Cole>(@George Cole): - George S. Cole: Once the rally starts , I'm counting on you to let us know when we're getting close to the top so I can get out. I don't plan to get sucked in like the last time when gold rallied to 417 and thought it was going much higher
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 17:00
EB GOLD AVERAGES - RJ 6/12/97 04:35>(GOLD AVERAGES - RJ 6/12/97 04:35): - 50% = $383.00 US. That is our goal. Rememember that #.
I mean after we hit 335.00 six of one, half dozen of the other times.
AWAY :- )
EB
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:51
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - American cowboys with laptops, lassos forgotten ,no more trivial pursuit .Faces on the media hype, Global Incest with no interruption ,Yes chips making decisions on the new frontier.My what a great time to enjoy Corona Extra .To all the happy bears lets ride the elastic band for a few days .
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:50
EB and more...>(and more...): - If you can't beat 'em join 'em. Not!
One doesn't jump ship but, merrily, goes down to the Galley to pillage/plunder the jewels ravage the FINE BETTYS! while the others aren't watching. Then he sleeps it off. And when he awakens from his luxurious slumber he is ready to fight and win again. That Pirate Bear Ship is a salty bunch though, my hat is off... AAARRRRGGGGGHHHHHH MATEY!
But you had better keep one eye open while asleep...
You can't keep a good man down.
AWAY :- (
EB - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:37
George S. Cole XAU and HUI>(XAU and HUI): - XAU and HUI down just modestly today despite $3.90 drop in August gold, and both closed considerably above their lows. Some of the gold stock players seem to be expecting a bullion rally next week. If the gold stocks had plunged and bullion had fallen just modestly, that would really have been awful action. Today not as bad as appears on the surface.
Extreme weakness in SA gold shares not surprising given their relatively high production costs. These go down more in gold bears, but go up more in gold bulls.
Still seems to me the gold bulls have grown much more pessimistic the past few weeks -- a very good sign. In retrospect, bullion's present problems were signalled by the yellow metal's pathetic response to Hashimoto's comments. When you can't go up on good news .......
Question -- if gold bullion was to jump $10 one day next week and the XAU surged 10% that day, how many here would be buyers. Very few I suspect. Tough to do after so many failed rallies when buying on even a small advance resulted in losses. But that probably is how the next gold bull will begin. Most bulls will be afraid to buy until an uptrend is firmly established. And by then prices will be FAR ABOVE THEIR LOWS.
That is the nature of markets. Very few get in near the bottom. And very few get out near the top. Fear and greed in action!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:22
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Lemme see . . . Spot gold closed at 334.55 today. I guess Asian buying can't hold it up anymore. Wait, what Asian buying? Hmmmmm . . . Maybe Hong Kong's future boat people feel that they have hoards enough of the precious metal. Don't expect to see much of it reach the free world, however. Corrupt officials and pirates will take most of it, as with Viet Nam's boat people. BTW, saw a report either on CNN or CNBC that said the PLA soldiers dispatched to HK make an average five dollars per month -- not even enough to buy a beer in a Hong Kong pub. I wonder what that kind of disparity will do to morale? In other words, what generally happens to a society when those charged with protecting it are seething with resentment? Mayhem, that's what. And flux and chaos and corruption. When will official corruption reach its full stride? My guess: July 1, 1997, 12:00:01 AM. Re earlier comments that Beijing doesn't want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg -- Of course, it does not. It lusts for the wealth free markets and democracy can bring, but is not about to grant the kind of liberties necessary to create it. I mean, Jeez, if the Democrats can't keep the economy running on all cylinders ( imagine if they controlled both houses of Congress and the White House ) , what chance do Communists have? The Dems would surely screw it up royally, and they aren't even socialists, much less communists! Get ready for a tide of refugees, as the murderers and thieves in Beijing assert their control.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:19
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - itsy bitsy trader- I got KRY also, the only thing keepin me above water.
several weeks ago I took down the TRADING ROOM sign on my door and put
up CASINO, KRY bein the best crap shoot in town.
Spoke too early on SSRIF, now down 1/8.
Beer time!
Tally HO - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:18
EB LogicBank @ 15:53 >(LogicBank @ 15:53 ): - More IDIOMS
You hit the nail on the head.
AWAY!!
EB - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 16:03
GFD Religious Bottoms>(Religious Bottoms): - George S. Cole: Before LBMA and BT came along I was hoping for some type of gottdamerung ( ? ) blowout on the downside. Psycologically I would be very happy with 300 on high volumes - 278 ( the previous bottom ) would be esthetically pleasing ( along with Dow 10,000 ) . If, as many have argued here - particularly DA, Comex is a proxy representative for the LBMA and off market markets then this would make an excellent bottom. If it isn't then who knows how to look at this...
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:53
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*): - George: The shorts will NOW begin to short heavily. The reason has to do with the capitulation you are always looking for to indicate a bottom. The shorts know that the present weakness, and that empty feeling gold longs now have in their stomachs, offers the perfect opportunity to ambush and force a violent drop resulting in capitulation. Then, but not before will the big shorts turn and go long.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:51
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - You're welcome general. If you see any signs of panic or fear on the faces of those who hold no gold please post toute de suite.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:49
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout): - Bigum Trader full of salt! Am I upset. No. I own KRY! The best gambling game in town!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:45
general to fundy>(to fundy): - We contrarians thank you, sir.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:45
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - George S. Cole- you are exactly RIGHT. I am more convensed after today's
action the whoever has got what ever money is, will be able to buy
the world on sale but the deal will be better than ever now. That land I
was expecting to buy for 10 cents on the dollar now will be 5 cents.
I see all then credit card paid for boats and jet skies headed to the lake just now. Yum, Yum, buy it on sale for cash soos I can go buy some groceries and feed my po debt ridden family.
If you notice PAASF and SSRIF were both up today, CRAZY! BOTTOM?
Tally Ho - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:36
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - George S. Cole: I agree with your analysis that eventually the shorts will stop shorting. But I do not agree that there is any great fear at the current price or 330 or will be at 300 or even $250. Those holding gold or shares will feel some panic but IMHO the vast majority of gold watchers have been expecting a major price decline for several months now. It is only the continuation of a long term trend
Gold is not a commodity in demand. Most of the world is not expecting an imminent collapse in the US$. It really is that simple. Things may change and eventually gold will get close to the cost of production but in the meantime there is no fear, no panic, no buyers. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:20
George S. Cole shorts and longs>(shorts and longs): - In this bear market whenever the spec shorts have taken a lopsided position, the gold price has gone their way fairly quickly. When this gold bear ends will it be because the shorts finally overextend themselves? Or will it reflect a recognition by the shorts that no more blood can be squeezed out of a bar, and they reverse themselves and GO LONG? Comments!
The widespread expectation of steep additional declines in the gold price is a positive sign. Bear markets generally do not end with the price declining to say $335 and the consensus worrying about an erosion to $325. No they end when prices drop to $335, $330 or $325, and people start worrying about a plunge to $300, $275, or $250. Bear markets always end amid great fear and we are getting mighty close to that stage now. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:18
panda @food.for.thought>(@food.for.thought): - Regarding bondos today....
...Also lifting prices was a Federal Reserve coupon pass in the five- to 30-year sector. A coupon pass, or permanent purchase of coupon-bearing securities, increases the size of the money supply, lowering interest rates in the process. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:02
Bob @..sorry folks>(@..sorry folks): - Quote source: http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/ec_y0023_2.html
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 15:00
Bob http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/ec_y0023_2.html>(http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/27/ec_y0023_2.html): - Quote source.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:59
Bob @...third world commodity >(@...third world commodity ): - Meanwhile, Indian gold demand is seen seasonally weak heading into the monsoon months also. India is the largest gold consuming country in the world, with demand estimated at 507.8 tonnes in 1996, compared to
345.3 tonnes for the U.S., according to the World Gold Council.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:31
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Greetings from Perth: http://www.wa.gov.au/watc/discover.html
( nice photos ) from State Govt Tourist Bureau.
Have a great Friday. We've had ours already. We get up Saturday morning to see how the Yankie market has made or broken the other investment markets. It is great being ahead of the US, even if we are Down Under.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:28
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - If gold doesn't hold his 335 ( Aug ) level Monday, it can easily drop to 332 or lower. If you see it happen, BUY it, IMHO!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:24
General to Short Bull>(to Short Bull): - Short, Are you switching to Rydex URSA when the dow hits 8100?
I have been in URSA for a while, losing my shorts, but plan to
stick it out. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:15
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at): - Bad day today, bought gold to early it seems. Next support ( poor one ) at 330 nextone around 325 - thisone must hold! I still expect the dollar to go down against d-mark in the near future ( analysis wrong if it climbs higher than 1.7430 sorry, I watch the dollar from europe ) , than should help the metal.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:07
Short Bull(@ Been on Vacation) Midday Comments>(Midday Comments): - I invested 50% of mutual fund money on Monday in Rydex Precious Metals,
and after a 1.00 XAU drop on Tuesday I got a pop of $2.00 on Wednesday
and another paltry .20 on the XAU yesterday which was my signal to get
out. I will likely be putting in 50% next Monday or Tuesday again to
try going long the XAU another time. I want to be 50% invested around
94-95 and the other 50% around the 90 XAU support.
Meanwhile I am playing the long side of stocks in my mutual funds with
a switch from Rydex Precious Metals to the Rydex Nova ( 150% S&P ) and
am looking for a nice pop to hopefully 8100 DOW in the next couple weeks,
and then looking for a big sell-off.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:07
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - Once again it's a Friday. Many traders will not want to hold the metal over the weekend. At least not unless they have some keen insight or knowledge available that we don't seem to have. Therefore, I am expecting a decline into the close as they liquidate their daily positions, if they still have any!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:06
EB sorry...one last thing>(sorry...one last thing): - $800 DOLLARS an OZ! by next year!!!? Have you been smoking Cherokees peace pipe?!!!! Pophov much
AWAY
EB - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:04
NEWS @for U>(@for U): - LONDON, June 27 ( Reuter ) - The gold price slumped to its lowest level in nearly 4 1/4 years on Friday afternoon under pressure from a stronger dollar and short selling by the professionals, dealers said.
It was fixed at $336.55 per ounce down from $337.30 at the morning fix to record its lowest level since April 1, 1993 of $336.35. On Comex, the August gold futures contract was down $1.90 at $337.90.
Gold was under pressure early when selling from the market professionals made a test of the year's low, and the lowest traded price in over four years at $336.15 was likely.
The price had bounced slightly Thursday evening but dealers said this merely reflected the professionals covering their positions taken in anticipation of further losses, when unexpectedly the price stablilised at around $337.00.
``There has been good support at $337.00 from buyers of physical metal but if that goes we could see a test of the low quite quickly,'' one dealer said.
Shortly after the gold fixing, the market had slipped another few cents and bids and offers ranged round the low.
Many dealers and market analysts forecast a rise next for gold if only because all the auguries suggested otherwise.
``When a market looks as bad as this it is a sure sign the price is at the bottom,'' one dealer said.
He said the many speculative positions taken out as bets that the price would fall further would need to be covered if the market failed to fulfil these expectations.
``That could be enough to turn it round although it may not set it on fire,'' the dealer said.
One analyst took the broader view that something exceptional was needed to lift the price given inflation was under control in the major economies and there was little chance of a financial crisis reactivating gold's safe haven status.
``The outside parameters have to change to stimulate fresh buying,'' the analyst said referring to the financial calm in which gold prices were suffering.
Another analyst tok the view that relatively drastic action by the gold producers would be needed to re-stimulate buying.
``Shutting down a few high cost mine shafts in South Africa might make a difference,'' he suggested.
Meanwhile the silver price shed only a few cents to $4.73/$4.75, platinum was unchanged at $417.00/$422.00 and palladium was down $3.75 at $192.25/$197.25.
11:03 06-27-97
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 14:01
GFD Market Emergency>(Market Emergency): - In other words BT is likely contemplating all the issues that aurator in his 12:24 post mentioned about market emergencies... ( The ultimate gold crises: gold owners making money!! :-o )
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:58
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - For something that is so 'worthless', it sure has been taking a long time for it to actually become so! If they all think it needs to go to 330 or 300 or 250, why don't they just let it?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:57
EB What's going on here>(What's going on here): - It took me a while to read all that I had missed this morning. Then I had to get out the Bible and check on ALL those verses...that took the longest ( but I bet not as long as it took to write it ) . And as long as we seem to be on the subject of betting... I bet that my Dad can get beat up by your Dad!
These are wild times and wild time invoke wild responses... I guess
I will repeat my little poem because I can't write lymericks
GOLD will go down!
GOLD will go UP!
I don't know,
God, I give up!
How about some fine Idioms
Time heals all wounds... OR Every DOG has it's day... OR oh... FAGITABOUTIT!
Now I must go fertilize the Avocado trees so I can later have some delicious Guacamole to lather my fish tacos wilsth I slurp Margaritas. I must be hungry! And only then can I fully digest all that has been said this morning ( or afternoon or evening for others )
AWAY!!?!! i think not
EB
SOMEONE has been reading the Jake B. site...oh my! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:56
GFD Thoughts on BT>(Thoughts on BT): - Heard on Kitco Street was great!! Definitely a Kitco classic.
Something I have been meaning to write for the last few days is how exactly a BT apocolapse would actually play out. If the recent BT posts are to be believed ( and the torrent of negative news about gold after his last posts kind of lend credence that it is the same BT as in the past ) then today he is dressed in his sunday finest standing at the wicket and asking politely for his gold.
I suspect the real question will be what happens after his polite request. First they will tell him to hold off for another month. He said he will decline to hold off - no more mr. nice guy. Then what happens I suspect this type of situation has never happened before and no one really knows...
Best guess would be that the market will declare force majeur ( Yeah we sold you gold that we don't own and now we can't deliver ) . What happens after that will be very interesting... Does BT get his money back? Who will have to refund it?
And most importantly: What will they have to SELL in order to give BT his money back.
As far as gold goes, I really do not have a clue how this will play out. It may just mean that the open interest collapses and there are now fewer buyers out there for paper plays - which could be price neutral.
I don't know what else BT could do to force the situation short of sending the Chinese navy ( such as it is ) down the Thames....
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:53
cherokee @fly-swatter>(@fly-swatter): - which alter ego will appear next? bt is bs.
during basing periods, making money is almost
impossible. the reasons for the price gyrations
are too numerous to list. does it matter which
one causes the inevitable bull run to bittle
lig horn and beyond? no,--- only that the trend
is not anyones friend, at the moment.
the best way, imo, to play gold and silver
at the moment, is with options. you go in
and buy monthly as they become available.
make it a habit to acquire several per month.
the cost is nil compared to the potential return.
it is also less painful than futures during this
period.
yes, options are the ticket, ----for the time being.
big trader is a big dummy, as has been stated from the
beginning. big heads come, and big heads go, it was
none to soon.
believe what YOU see and what YOUR mind tells you.
big dummies are around every corner.
now, ----when is ted coming back?
tort---hope you are short beans and copper. crude is
looking good, again. the eurodollar is in a VERY tight
channel. come on greenie beenie, raise those rates!
cherokee!; ) smoke signals are erupting from all points. watch
for thinly veiled ones, as they are filled with
miniature bt's. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:52
George S. Cole gold stock volume>(gold stock volume): - Gold stock volume generally modest today. No signs of a selling climax yet. Hopefully soon.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:52
rickstr Fireworks>(Fireworks): - Watching gold and stocks is like watching fireworks. There is almost always a grand finale. Unless of course the fireworks are cheap! But these are not cheap fireworks. However just like watching fireworks, you sometimes have to wonder if this is the grand finale or are they just getting better leading up to the grand finale?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:47
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - My current thinking is that Monday could very well be an outside reversal day in gold.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:42
vronsky IS GOLD DEAD?>(IS GOLD DEAD?): - In the light of gold’s sickly performance for many month’s, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metal’s history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/gold_dead.html
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:38
Roebear @Havilah>(@Havilah): - Steve of Perth: A dove be winging it's way to ye.
And I'm going out for some sun! BBL - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:23
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - That spike down even beat my expectations for the day!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:14
ark salted core @in.camera>(salted core @in.camera): - Since is spot gold is down last I looked, I humbly submit___
Over heard in the locker room this morning: Man says to his
wife, Hon, bring me my Burgher King shorts.
Wife: What? what are Burgher King shorts?
Man: Home of the whopper.
and one more:
Why doesn't your girl friend want to go to a polish theater?
Because she always has to sit behind a pole.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:07
Mid-Size Institution Use.Your.Head.Com>(Use.Your.Head.Com): - Gold ( US$338 ) 2-Buy Felix Freeman
Not the End of the World As We Know It June 25, 1997 ( 2:30pm )
1-Yr. Spot Target: $375
A With the apparent failure of gold to fulfill the gloomiest projections and immediately collapse following its decline below $338,
it is worth questioning the further downside risk in the sector. While
the London fix of $336 on Monday was the lowest since March 1993, it
was not quite the lowest price of the year, and subsequently gold has
managed to rally back to as high as $340.50. This indicates that we
are actually in a stable downtrend, with physical buying lending
support, and a trading range at present of $330-$342; the closest
break-out point is actually to the upside. We remain cautious but
have room for optimism.
The bullion market is being driven more by sentiment than reality.
Fears of Central Bank mobilizations abound and there are various gloom-mongers pointing to $230-$250 as a downside target for gold, a
figure we do not consider to be realistic. While there have
undoubtedly been some undeclared sales this year, and far more loans
and swaps from Central Banks, most of the major pieces of news from
Central Banks would not actually involve the sale of any physical
gold. Now, finally, there has been a faint glimmer of hope that
gold retains some role in the reserve system, with Japanese Prime
Minister Hashimoto's remarks that he might, under certain
circumstances, be prepared to sell US treasuries and buy gold. This
appears to have been part of a package of statements, as it was
followed up by comments that he did not want to see the Yen reduced to a regional currency. Q1 net Japanese purchases of US treasuries were
equivalent to a purchase of 1,110 tonnes of gold, so any translation
of rumour to reality would be immensely positive. The ongoing
uncertainty over EMU is also unlikely to lead to much further negative
sentiment for gold, this having factored in a timely implementation,
so delays or drop-outs should be mildly positive.
Of the 26,500 tonnes of gold held by Central Banks, excluding 6,358
tonnes held by official institutions, some 18,310 tonnes ( 56% ) are
held by large holders that apparently have a stable view toward
their bullion, and do not lend significantly. Of the balance of 8,350
tonnes, some 40% may have already been lent out or otherwise
committed, leaving approximately 5,000 tonnes of mobile gold, which
is by no means all really mobile. In 1996 secondary disposals of gold
( not all of which would have been Central Bank derived ) amounted to
509 tonnes ( GFMS ) . We estimate that if the strength of physical demand
seen in Q1 persists then a secondary disposal of around 770 tonnes
( 15.5% ) will be required this year. While Central Bank gold will
undoubtedly become more mobile over the coming years, economic growth
spurring jewellery demand should require ongoing disposals of at least
500 tonnes/year.
If prices move much further down we would expect to see some real
production cutbacks, although prices would probably have to persist
low for at least a quarter. Excluding FX changes ( especially in South
Africa ) , at $330 gold around 22% ( 515 tonnes ) of the world's
production is cash-flow negative, increasing to around 35% ( 820
tonnes ) at $300 gold. Using the normal sensitivity of gold demand to
price, production cutbacks of this size would be expected to have a
positive impact on the gold price of $40 and $65 respectively. This
suggests an equilibrium price of $365-$370 with secondary disposals
running at 1996's 509 tonne level. Australian and South African
operations would be worst affected, with 1996 average cash costs of
$294 and $293 respectively ( GFMS ) . North American companies generally
come off quite well; we can identify only eight mines which might be
forced shut at $330 and 14 at $300, although changes in mine plans
could inhibit output from some others.
Despite the major sell-off in the senior stocks on Monday the group
remains in the same trading range relative to gold that it has been in
since late March, showing that, as yet, there has been no significant
shift in sentiment toward the sector. Some of the current downtrend,
especially in the juniors, may be the effect of quarter-end book
cleaning by funds. If this is the case, then a relaxation of the
downtrend in the first part of July should be interpreted as setting
the stage for more positive developments. The NPV premium has now
contracted from 12% to 5% in the last two weeks and could yet contract
further. A downside target for the TSE Golds of around 8,000 could
thus be achieved either by further premium contraction to a slight
discount or a decline in bullion to the mid $320s. We changed our
recommendation on the sector from Underweight to Slightly Overweight
on May 9; while this may have been slightly premature, we feel that
the indications are positive enough not to move to a more bearish
position unless the stocks break down out of their current trading
range.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:04
RT @-------->(@--------): - MY, MY, how busy we've all been this morning!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:00
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - 2Weeks -- Kind of looking for 336 on the Aug contract today. May or may not happen today, but there is a good possibility. Probably a bit more on Monday.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:59
Aura @2 weeks>(@2 weeks): - 2 weeks--why not just short gold and save yourself some breath?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:55
EB Front - 10:15>(Front - 10:15): - Try http://www.minot.com/~bohl/history/sym.key
AWAY...
EB - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:52
Donald On Sale>(On Sale): - Why are all you folks grousing about the price of gold? Sell one unit of your Dow Jones RIGHT NOW for US$7717. Take the money and buy 22.96 ounces. If you did it the other day you could have had 23.5 ounces. This is the sale of a lifetime. It hasn't been this cheap since 1966. What are you going to do, wait until it gets to $850 and by again like you did in 1980? Can you get a few more ounces for the $7717 later? Mabye. So buy some now to test it. Buy MORE when it changes $10.00 either up or down. This is SALE TIME!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:50
2weeks where_are_all_the_fun_guys?>(where_are_all_the_fun_guys?): - Cherokee Eldorado Auric Aurophile - you guys on vacation or what? What has happened to this chat group ( other than a slight correction in gold ) ? Gold could go much lower, folks. The only thing you can build in times like this is character. It may take 15 years to get whole. How long you got? Market investors in 1929 got whole ( depending on their mix ) in 20 years or so, n'est ce pas? Unless gold and the other PMs are the modern-day equivalent of United Buggy Whip & Corset ( which is a stretch ) , it is hard to imagine that things won't improve.
Odds are very good that sooner or later we will come out ahead in PMs. This does not necessarily happen in the event of an unparalleled era of world peace and prosperity ( the Pax Clintonia, for you history buffs ) , which could drive gold down near the price of scrapple, in accordance with the stated expectations of some pundits. The odds are high, however, of one or more of the individually unlikely destabilizing potentialities occurring. Note today's news about the resurgence of activity along the geologic fault line on the US west coast, for example. Fold in the odds of a nuclear warhead taking flight, climatic disaster of a global scale, social, political, and military upheaval spawned by the demons of sectarianism, racism, nationalism and tribalism, and an international financial downward spiral triggered by multitudinous subtle economic and mass-psychological factors, and you have a suspense-filled global melodrama, humankind's own soap opera, awash in crisis, teetering perpetually on the edge of disaster.
Clearly, the end ( or something that will resemble the end ) is near. Near is the operative word. Astronomers tell us the universe will go cold in a few zillion years. Is that near? Probably, near is more like ten years.
Not that we Cassandras, long in PMs, hope for calamity. For us, a more ideal scenario involves a realignment of the economies of the MINs ( major industrialized nations ) in such a way as to manifest and expose the essential values of GSP&P. The odds of this? Approximately 20-30%, IMHO, with a ( possibly ) huge resultant leap in PM prices, and that is what I am betting on.
Cato the Elder said, Carthago delenda est. A culture or civilization, even a global one, that is on a wrong foundation will not endure.
Today's WSJ reports that most Americans expect a recession within the next five years. They expect things to be better ( economically ) next year, but worse in five years.
In the meantime, GSP&P ( the precious metals ) have a huge potential upside. I don't see why everybody wouldn't want to have some stake in that. Jump in! The water's great! But swim AYOR ( at your own risk ) .
Enjoy the weekend, friends.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:46
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - EARL: Great charts today. I have finally worked out that I am a Chronic bear. Charts help you become one. You may find this chart interesting in light of your Yen currency comparison. http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/g-multi.html
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:45
Front TO EARL:>(TO EARL:): -
Earl:
Not to put too fine of a point on it, but have you noticed that GOLD and stuff has been in a continual downward spiral since you finally discovered how to post those charts of yours? Just an observation my friend. Maybe Mooney's Louis speach has something like Post no more lest thou really screwest things up! HAHA ( :- ) ) - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:37
Lord Macaulay Mooney, this should wrap things up.>(Mooney, this should wrap things up.): - Soon fades the spell, soon comes the night;
Say will it not be the same,
Whether we played black or white,
Whether we lost or won the game?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:36
Steve (Perth-Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - ROEBEAR: The astrological guide to finding REAL gold
My version of I Believe of a week ago....
http://www.gospelcom.net/bible?version=NIV
search for gold and you will discover...
Genesis 2:11
Genesis 2:12
Genesis 13:2
Genesis 24:22
Genesis 24:35
Genesis 24:53
Genesis 41:42
Genesis 44:8
Exodus 3:22
Exodus 11:2
Exodus 12:35
Exodus 20:23
Exodus 25:3
Exodus 25:11 - ( 2 )
Exodus 25:12
Exodus 25:13
Exodus 25:17
Exodus 25:18
Exodus 25:24 - ( 2 )
Exodus 25:26
Exodus 25:28
Exodus 25:29
Exodus 25:31
Exodus 25:36
Exodus 25:38
Exodus 25:39
Exodus 26:6
Exodus 26:29 - ( 3 )
Exodus 26:32 - ( 2 )
Exodus 26:37 - ( 2 )
Exodus 28:5
Exodus 28:6
Exodus 28:8
Exodus 28:11
Exodus 28:13
Exodus 28:14
Exodus 28:15
Exodus 28:20
Exodus 28:22
Exodus 28:23
Exodus 28:24
Exodus 28:26
Exodus 28:27
Exodus 28:33
Exodus 28:36
Exodus 30:3 - ( 2 )
Exodus 30:5
Exodus 31:4
Exodus 32:24
Exodus 32:31
Exodus 35:5
Exodus 35:22 - ( 2 )
Exodus 35:32
Exodus 36:13
Exodus 36:34 - ( 3 )
Exodus 36:36 - ( 2 )
Exodus 36:38
Exodus 37:2 - ( 2 )
Exodus 37:3
Exodus 37:4
Exodus 37:6
Exodus 37:7
Exodus 37:11 - ( 2 )
Exodus 37:12
Exodus 37:13
Exodus 37:15
Exodus 37:16
Exodus 37:17
Exodus 37:22
Exodus 37:23
Exodus 37:24
Exodus 37:26 - ( 2 )
Exodus 37:27
Exodus 37:28
Exodus 38:24 - ( 2 )
Exodus 39:2
Exodus 39:3
Exodus 39:5
Exodus 39:6
Exodus 39:8
Exodus 39:13
Exodus 39:15
Exodus 39:16 - ( 2 )
Exodus 39:17
Exodus 39:19
Exodus 39:25
Exodus 39:30
Exodus 40:5
Numbers 7:14
Numbers 7:20
Numbers 7:84
Numbers 7:86
Numbers 8:4
Numbers 22:18
Numbers 24:13
Numbers 31:22
Numbers 31:50
Numbers 31:51
Numbers 31:52
Numbers 31:54
Deuteronomy 7:25
Deuteronomy 8:13
Deuteronomy 17:17
Deuteronomy 29:17
Joshua 6:19
Joshua 6:24
Joshua 7:21
Joshua 7:24
Joshua 22:8
Judges 8:26
1 Samuel 6:8
1 Samuel 6:11
1 Samuel 6:15
2 Samuel 1:24
2 Samuel 8:7
2 Samuel 8:10
2 Samuel 8:11
2 Samuel 12:30
2 Samuel 21:4
1 Kings 6:20
1 Kings 6:21 - ( 3 )
1 Kings 6:22 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 6:28
1 Kings 6:30
1 Kings 6:32 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 6:35
1 Kings 7:48 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 7:49 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 7:50 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 7:51
1 Kings 9:11
1 Kings 9:14
1 Kings 9:28
1 Kings 10:2
1 Kings 10:10
1 Kings 10:11
1 Kings 10:14 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:16 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:17 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:18
1 Kings 10:21 - ( 2 )
1 Kings 10:22
1 Kings 10:25
1 Kings 12:28
1 Kings 14:26
1 Kings 15:15
1 Kings 15:18
1 Kings 15:19
1 Kings 20:3
1 Kings 20:5
1 Kings 20:7
1 Kings 22:48
2 Kings 5:5
2 Kings 7:8
2 Kings 12:13
2 Kings 12:18
2 Kings 14:14
2 Kings 16:8
2 Kings 18:14
2 Kings 18:16
2 Kings 20:13
2 Kings 23:33
2 Kings 23:35 - ( 2 )
2 Kings 24:13
2 Kings 25:15 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 18:7
1 Chronicles 18:10
1 Chronicles 18:11
1 Chronicles 20:2
1 Chronicles 21:25
1 Chronicles 22:14
1 Chronicles 22:16
1 Chronicles 28:14 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 28:15 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 28:16
1 Chronicles 28:17 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 28:18 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:2 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:3
1 Chronicles 29:4 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:5 - ( 2 )
1 Chronicles 29:7
2 Chronicles 1:15
2 Chronicles 2:7
2 Chronicles 2:14
2 Chronicles 3:4
2 Chronicles 3:5
2 Chronicles 3:6 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 3:7
2 Chronicles 3:8
2 Chronicles 3:9 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 3:10
2 Chronicles 4:7
2 Chronicles 4:8
2 Chronicles 4:20
2 Chronicles 4:21 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 4:22 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 5:1
2 Chronicles 8:18
2 Chronicles 9:1
2 Chronicles 9:9
2 Chronicles 9:10
2 Chronicles 9:13 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:14
2 Chronicles 9:15 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:16 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:17
2 Chronicles 9:18
2 Chronicles 9:20 - ( 2 )
2 Chronicles 9:21
2 Chronicles 9:24
2 Chronicles 12:9
2 Chronicles 13:11
2 Chronicles 15:18
2 Chronicles 16:2
2 Chronicles 16:3
2 Chronicles 21:3
2 Chronicles 24:14
2 Chronicles 25:24
2 Chronicles 32:27
2 Chronicles 36:3
Ezra 1:4
Ezra 1:6
Ezra 1:9
Ezra 1:10
Ezra 1:11
Ezra 2:69
Ezra 5:14
Ezra 7:15
Ezra 7:16
Ezra 7:18
Ezra 8:25
Ezra 8:26
Ezra 8:27 - ( 2 )
Ezra 8:28
Ezra 8:30
Ezra 8:33
Nehemiah 7:70
Nehemiah 7:71
Nehemiah 7:72
Esther 1:6
Esther 1:7
Esther 8:15
Job 3:15
Job 22:24 - ( 2 )
Job 23:10
Job 28:1
Job 28:6
Job 28:15
Job 28:16
Job 28:17 - ( 2 )
Job 28:19
Job 31:24 - ( 2 )
Job 36:19
Job 42:11
Psalms 19:10 - ( 2 )
Psalms 21:3
Psalms 45:9
Psalms 45:13
Psalms 68:13
Psalms 72:15
Psalms 105:37
Psalms 115:4
Psalms 119:72
Psalms 119:127 - ( 2 )
Psalms 135:15
Proverbs 3:14
Proverbs 8:10
Proverbs 8:19 - ( 2 )
Proverbs 11:22
Proverbs 16:16
Proverbs 17:3
Proverbs 20:15
Proverbs 22:1
Proverbs 25:11
Proverbs 25:12 - ( 2 )
Proverbs 27:21
Ecclesiastes 2:8
Song of Solomon 1:10
Song of Solomon 1:11
Song of Solomon 3:10
Song of Solomon 5:11
Song of Solomon 5:14
Song of Solomon 5:15
Isaiah 2:7
Isaiah 2:20
Isaiah 13:12
Isaiah 13:17
Isaiah 30:22
Isaiah 31:7
Isaiah 39:2
Isaiah 40:19
Isaiah 46:6
Isaiah 60:6
Isaiah 60:9
Isaiah 60:17
Jeremiah 4:30
Jeremiah 10:4
Jeremiah 10:9
Jeremiah 52:19 - ( 2 )
Lamentations 4:1 - ( 2 )
Lamentations 4:2
Ezekiel 7:19 - ( 2 )
Ezekiel 16:13
Ezekiel 16:17
Ezekiel 27:22
Ezekiel 28:4
Ezekiel 28:13
Ezekiel 38:13
Daniel 2:32
Daniel 2:35
Daniel 2:38
Daniel 2:45
Daniel 3:1
Daniel 5:4
Daniel 5:7
Daniel 5:16
Daniel 5:23
Daniel 5:29
Daniel 10:5
Daniel 11:8
Daniel 11:38
Daniel 11:43
Hosea 2:8
Hosea 8:4
Joel 3:5
Nahum 2:9
Habakkuk 2:19
Zephaniah 1:18
Haggai 2:8
Zechariah 4:2
Zechariah 6:11
Zechariah 9:3
Zechariah 13:9
Zechariah 14:14
Malachi 3:3
Matthew 2:11
Matthew 10:9
Matthew 23:16
Matthew 23:17 - ( 2 )
Acts 3:6
Acts 17:29
Acts 20:33
1 Corinthians 3:12
1 Timothy 2:9
2 Timothy 2:20
Hebrews 9:4
James 2:2
James 5:3
1 Peter 1:7
1 Peter 1:18
1 Peter 3:3
Revelation 3:18
Revelation 4:4
Revelation 9:7
Revelation 9:20
Revelation 17:4
Revelation 18:12
Revelation 18:16
Revelation 21:18
Revelation 21:21 - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:30
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - This morning the dollar is up against all major currencies. The Yen is down and yet the bonds are stalled as Mike Sheller has pointed out. Where is the money going ....... Must be going into NotaGoldbugs pocket? .. ( :- ) )
With reference to that Yen/gold chart I posted yesterday; they apparently will only track to the downside. For the past month or so we have had the Yen up and gold flat to down. Now the Yen is down and gold is following it. ....... Abandon all hope, ye who enter here. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:24
aurator Market Emergency>(Market Emergency): - With so many hours to kill on airoplanes thought it would be a good idea to read Stephen Fay's Silver Bubble again 10 years after first time.
ALL: I would be grateful for any information concerning Comex's powers to declare a Market Emergency.
Comex declared a Market Emergency during Feb/March 1980 ( have not brought book with me to this cybercafe so unable to recall exact date ) and allowed liquidation trading only.
In particular:
1 Have there been any other occasions when the rules were changed by Comex that effected a free market in trading?
2 Do the rules of Natural Justice apply to Comex in other words, is there any recourse against Comex if it changes the rules without warning?
Perhaps Tort or other legal beagles could add something here?
Tanx for the jokes Tort.
BTW also recommend Where are the Customer's Yachts recently reprinted, for a humourous look at investing - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:11
aurator @ alternative planet kitco>(@ alternative planet kitco): - Ummm, make that all the comments save the recent alternative universe storm I posted in the middle of.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:06
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley): - NotaGoldbug....Please give us your superior insight on what we should do with our money , after we sell our worthless gold funds. Oh Please !!!!!!
Ted.... get to a computer , FAST!!!! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 12:04
APH '''''''''''''>('''''''''''''): - If I remember correctly NotaGoldBug has been looking for the XAU to dip to at least the mid 90's since the fall of last year. I for one make note of his posts.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:53
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - M.Graves: I did state my negative opinion on XAU months ago but alas,
no one listened..
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:50
aurator I said to myself…What a Wonderful World>(I said to myself…What a Wonderful World): - These past three weeks have left NZ, been to Guernsey, London and now in Toronto. All the while am able to keep up with the stimulating conversations going on here.
A thousand thanks Bart. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:46
Roebear @gorgeousday>(@gorgeousday): - It is absolutely a beautiful day here in Pennsylvania Dutch country, too nice to even watch my accounts bleed. I'm out to catch some rays, somebody call me when gold hits 400 or so. Steve from Perth: loved your rainbow comment, but remember, that only goes for water, its fire next time : ) Keep the faith all! BBL
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:46
SimpleMan RJ>(RJ): - RJ
I propose 100 ozs. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:43
SimpleMan RJ>(RJ): - RJ
How many ozs?
I will deposit cash with Bart and you deposit gold. On June 30, 1998 you will pay me $50 above spot. Deal? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:40
Roebear @itstheendmyfriend>(@itstheendmyfriend): - 6pk: Allow me to concur. I quit, well, I just bought a little more and now I QUIT QUIT QUIT! ( does that count? )
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:38
MoreGold @Shorts, CB's, M Lynch >(@Shorts, CB's, M Lynch ): - OK, so lets go. Let's see you take it down to $300.
Enough of this wallowing around 337.
Let's see if they can do it, im waiting. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:30
6pak tears @ me also>(tears @ me also): - Roebear @ 09:21 GOLD has no reason to exist....I give up.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:26
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley): - NotaGoldbug ..... Why have you waited so long to open everyone's eyes to the fact that gold is worthless If you would have only come forth sooner , we wouldn't be in this state of FLUX!!!Please, if you have any other tips , don't hesitate!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:16
vronsky SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE FUNCTION - Find What You Want RAPIDLY>(SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE FUNCTION - Find What You Want RAPIDLY): - 280+ pages of financial data, analysis, reports & studies - VIRTUAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF PRECIOUS METALS. Use “SEARCH GOLD-EAGLE” button in Hot News box to find what you seek - RAPIDLY:
http://www.gold-eagle.com
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:09
D.A. market.making>(market.making): - RJ:
I think you've been a broker too long. I am not a retail waiting to be fleeced. I will however give you another opportunity which is a much fairer bet.
Again the stakes are for 1 oz. of the hated yellow. 400.00 before 300.00.
The window is open. Step right up. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:05
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com): - Emily Letellier ( @ ) :
EMILY,
Re: your very astute comment... What's all this talk about CBS selling gold? I mean what the heck does a broadcasting company have to do with international finance? You don't hear anything about ABC or NBC selling gold! CBS should just stick to television!
I agree with you entirely !
I was wondering though, it is worrying... do you happen to know how many ozs. CBS could sell if they feel so inclined ?
Paul
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:04
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold is finding good resistance and has tested well. Some gold stocks are up and XAU represents the current lower 336.9 337.2 price range. Me thinks that gold has some life in it yet!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 11:00
d-man oops.>(oops.): - I said bear when I meant bull ( of course )
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:56
Big Trader THOUGHTS>(THOUGHTS): - That BT at 10:31 was not me.
But this one is:
SUCKERS!!!!! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:55
Anoetic kecking>(kecking): - Fan falls from ceiling after taking a direct hit!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:54
d-man thanks@tears>(thanks@tears): - I've been faithfully lurking around here for about 18 months, and this mornings comments ( especially those in reaction to notagoldbug ) brought tears to my eyes. Thank you all for the laughs!
Now that I'm here, I'll spout my .000561 ounzes of gold's worth...
I believe that all of the reasons for the paper bear to end are in place and it's just a matter of time. Time is the key. I suggest working hard, saving cash and gold, and preparing to watch the panic from the sidelines.
d-man - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:53
Anoetic kecking>(kecking): - Fan falls from ceiling after taking a direct hit!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:51
Future Profits @ Rational Thinking>(@ Rational Thinking): - I'm bearish I replied to him. How could anyone be bullish on this market? I added quickly.
He pondered my reply briefly but deeply. In his eyes I saw the reflection of many years' experience.
Son, you gotta buy em when no one wants 'em.
The statement was simple but profound. The only problem I had was knowing when the level of no one wanting 'em had been reached. And so, I politely asked him my question.
Sir, when do you know that no one wants em?
Again he stared me down, shaking slightly as he spoke. It's simple, young man. Find ten people and ask em if they're bullish or bearish. If eight or more of em tell you they're bearish, get ready for one heck of a rally.
I remembered what I had learned about contrary opinion and its value at important turning points. I remembered the wisdom of Jesse Livermore with respect to rampant bullish or bearish opinions. I knew the old man was right.
So, what's the poll of traders tell you today? I asked him.
Son, you're my tenth person and the picture is complete. You're the tenth bear of ten people I've asked. And that completes the picture for me.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:49
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - MIKE SHELLER: I find your rainbow account quite a stark, yet bright contrast compared to most posts today. An everlasting covenant was remembered. ( see below )
GOLD: My Rothschild contact is saying Gold to around $300, then up to $580 approx. What happens then There is a big re-adjustment coming between the Central Banks in Europe, Asia & USA. These times always mean volatile times. Harry Schultz was saying the charts were indicating $325 oz way back in Feb/March.
RAINBOWS:
Then God said to Noah and to his sons with him:
I now establish my covenant with you and with your descendants after you
and with every living creature that was with you--the birds, the livestock and all the wild animals, all those that came out of the ark with you--every living creature on earth.
I establish my covenant with you: Never again will all life be cut off by the waters of a flood; never again will there be a flood to destroy the earth. And God said, This is the sign of the covenant I am making between me and you and every living creature with you, a covenant for all generations to come: I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it will be the sign of the covenant between me and the earth.
Whenever I bring clouds over the earth and the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will remember my covenant between me and you and all living creatures of every kind. Never again will the waters become a flood to destroy all life. Whenever the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will see it and remember the everlasting covenant between God and all living creatures of every kind on the earth. So God said to Noah, This is the sign of the covenant I have established between me and all life on the earth.
GENESIS 9:8-17
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:48
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Man, Gold is gone crazy... its all over the place... up 40 down 10 down 60 up 70 down 30 ... where she stops nobody knows. There must be a few big players today.. be interesting to see volume figures.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:47
RJ OK, I admit it!>(OK, I admit it!): - D.A - that is a most reasonable wager, to which I will decline. A quick rally to $350 is very possible. How about my offer of $335 half a dozen times, before $400 once?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:44
D.A. still.looking.for.action>(still.looking.for.action): - RJ:
Offer still good. One ounce of the hated yellow metal says 350 before 325. Any takers? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:42
Ali @tarararara>(@tarararara): - Is this a tornado or what today?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:42
RJ I'll take a cashiers check.>(I'll take a cashiers check.): - Simple man - No offense meant, I just backed my guarantee with cash. Does your guarantee of $800 in a year come with the same? In answer to your query, read some of my priors. Yes, I do expect it to continue.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:40
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold 337.10 recovering somewhat
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:35
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - RJ
My friend you are incorrect. Such guarantees exist.
1. Japan
2. China
3. Debt
4. North Korea
5. Immorality
6. y2k: problem
7. Clinton
8. Deficit
9. Inflation
10.Deflation
11.$US
12. Middle East
13. Overvalued stock market
14. Overvalued RE market
15. Nonexistent savings rate
16. Social Security
17. Defaults
and many others. Not nec. in that order.
Do you honestly believe that things will get better rather than worse? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:35
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - George S. Cole: I do appreciate your comments.. But I feel even you, a long
term bull, questioning gold’s ability to regain its luster.. This metal will confound
even the most hard core goldbugs..
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:34
panda @>(@): - See, there's hope yet....
10:19 RUSSIAN BANKS DEMAND CENTRAL BANK RATE RAISED TO 31-32 PERCENT - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:33
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold rally in progress.... how far mmmmmmn
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:31
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - ALL - The 10:03 was not posted by me. I will be off line until this evening, at which time I post the Louis 16th - Ben Franklin storey, unless someone wants to beat me to it. It is probably found in various books, but my copy is from 'Proud Destiny' ( originally published in German as 'Arms for America' ) , by Lion Feuchtwanger and is found on page 468.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:31
panda @>(@): - Front - I see you've decoded my '&' for then number '7'. I don't type well when I have to tpe fast. :- ) )
To all:
Folks getting a little emotional today? Did something out of the ordinary happen? :- ) ) Chill out, things have been going too well for tooo long. Something will break, count on it. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:31
BT ()>(()): - suckers! hahahahahahahhaa
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:27
George s. Cole gold bear>(gold bear): - I've said it before and will say it again -- as long as the paper bull continues the gold bear will remain very much alive. But with a big stock market break likely before long, anyone who throws in the towel now may be making a very big mistake. If stocks go down in a major way ( 15% or more ) and gold still cannot move, then I too will throw in the towel. But I very much doubt it will work out that way.
Mooney: Waiting for that Louis 16 quote! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:26
lurker here>(here): - If gpld keeps going down it means we have deflation under way
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:25
Roebear @where'sthe$$>(@where'sthe$$): - Two trillion$? So that's what they are buying!
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970627/business/stories/funds_1.html - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:25
Scott Help>(Help): - Does anyone know a ticker codee for Yahoo for Gold spot?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:25
RJ Such a deal!>(Such a deal!): - SimpleMan
I too would buy gold here with a guarantee of $800 in a year. Sadly, no such guarantee exits. I tell you what, I will sell you all the gold I own for $650 today, and I will guarantee to buy back all of it at $50 over the high spot price for the next year. Any takers?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:23
Front To PANDA:>(To PANDA:): - Thank You !
TTFN - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:23
Bernatz de ventadorm a_cave@in_the_pyranees>(a_cave@in_the_pyranees): -
Alors, ma frens - zat beeg tradair ees beeg bull sheetair by gar.
But do not WorRY. Ah have spoken wiz zee WIZARDS of zee pyrannees
and zey arre SURE zat zee beautiful gold will not go below $335 . And
someTIMES zeze guys zey aare right by dam. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:22
Ali @schlaraffenland>(@schlaraffenland): - To all goldbuggers,poets,philosophers,dreamers and cynics.It's this time of the year,when nothing much happens to write about.So lets talk about this $2oo gold.Where can I buy it? I have a few hundred Yankee Dollars left over in my pocket from my last holiday in Hawaii.Of course,who would sell $200 gold if it costs $300 to produce?It's ( still ) a free world and people are allowed to do all irrational things which enters their minds.I have given up a long time ago on predicting what they would do next.One thing I have to say is,do not cry about the low price of gold,be quiet and add to your holding,because,as the saying goes, what goes up has to come down and it works in reverse just as well.Just be a LITTLE more patient.And Tortfeasor,keep those lawyer jokes coming,thanks.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19
Tortfeasor Waxing Metaphysical>(Waxing Metaphysical): - Gold does not exist; only the notion of gold.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19
panda @>(@): - Front -- GCQ& and SIN7
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - RJ
I will buy gold at under $350 regardless. It will be around $800 by next June. GUARANTEED!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:19
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - WILL TODAY BE THE DAY IT BEGINS?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:18
Emily Letellier @>(@): -
What's all this talk about CBS selling gold? I mean what the heck does a broadcasting company have to do with international finance? You don't hear anything about ABC or NBC selling gold! CBS should just stick to television! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:15
Front @HELP!>(@HELP!): - Does anyone know what the month code is for the current Gold and Silver stuff...I wa following GCM7 and SIN7 Are these correct?
Thanks... - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:14
RJ My second Limerick>(My second Limerick): - There was a gang at Kitco who said
At $335 gold is not dead
That’s all well and fine
But at three twenty nine
They buy with their hearts and not with their heads.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:14
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Lurker: I didn't say gold has no reason to exist. what I said was When I see real despair, And everyone completely gives up on gold, when
I hear arguments as to why the metal has no reason to exist then a buying
opportunity will be at hand..
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:07
lurker here>(here): - NotaGoldbug.
If gold has no reason to exist then why wont CBs sell their holdings?
Because WHEN the ..... hits the fan they need something of lasting value. If all gold was in private hands what do you think would happen? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:04
BOJ Not a one liner>(Not a one liner): - Thursday June 26 8:22 PM EDT
Drop in Fed custody holdings revives fears of BoJ
By Isabelle Clary
NEW YORK, June 26 ( Reuter ) - A steep $7.259-billion drop in the Federal Reserve's custody holdings for foreign central banks and international organizations sparked market fears -- though unsubstantiated so far -- that Japan may be divesting U.S. Treasuries, analysts said on Thursday.
``In light of Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's comments earlier this week, people will see this as a sign the Japanese are indeed selling,'' said Deutsche Morgan Grenfell senior currency strategist Marc Chandler.
Hashimoto roiled U.S. financial markets on Monday when he urged U.S.-Japan foreign exchange cooperation. Market players saw a veiled threat in Hashimoto's reference to Japan's past temptation to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold at times of foreign exchange volatility.
``I would caution against reading too much into this,'' Chandler said of the $7.259-billion drop in custody holdings to $634.677 billion that the New York Fed reported for the week ended June 25.
The Fed's custody holdings now is $18.6 billion below its peak of $653.295 billion in the week ended April 16.
``The custody holdings are not a very good predictor of central banks' activity and misestimated central bank buying by 33 percent in the fourth quarter of 1994,'' Chandler noted.
The New York Fed purchases and sells U.S. Treasuries on behalf of foreign central banks, such as the Bank of Japan, or international organizations, such as the World Bank, and maintains these holdings in custody.
The New York Fed publishes changes in these overall holdings on a weekly basis. However, it does not give a breakdown of the changes in the various central banks' portfolios.
``We do not release the breakdown of the custody holdings and we do not comment on the custody holdings,'' said New York Fed Senior Vice President Peter Bakstansky.
The U.S. Treasury's quarterly bulletin gives detailed figures regarding foreign buying or selling of U.S. government securities, but the data are published with a two-month lag after the end of the quarter.
``It may be a reflection of a technicality, like maturing Treasury or cash management bills,'' Chandler said.
Nomura Securities International chief economist David Resler said seasonal factors may account for the drop.
``The drop in custody holdings is certainly going to raise suspicion the Bank of Japan may be divesting Treasuries. But it is very dangerous to come to that conclusion,'' Resler said.
``A number of factors can explain a decline of that magnitude,'' Resler added. ``A central bank can sell part of its holdings to another bank or some other institution in Japan. The custody holdings are no convincing policy indication.''
Resler noted similar declines a year ago, including a $15-billion drop in mid-April the week ended April 24, 1996.
``There seems to be some seasonal elements to this decline,'' Resler added.
While noting that the $12.2-billion two-week drop in the Fed's custody holdings a year ago mirrored the current decline, Resler conceded ``it's the kind of thing that would create concern about what Hashimoto really meant.''
Chris Turner, director of research at I.D.E.A., said Bank of Japan's foreign exchange data through May do not show any divesting of U.S. Treasuries. However, they reveal a sharp deceleration.
``The Bank of Japan foreign exchange data show Japan's holdings of U.S. financial instruments up $1 billion at $222.00 billion as of May,'' Turner said.
``It's not a drop yet, but the rate of growth has dropped dramatically to 6.0 percent from 30 percent in 1996,'' Turner stressed. ``The focus is on the Fed's data because they come out first. We don't have Japan's figures for June.''
Turner added that a number of central banks, beside the Bank of Japan, may have sold U.S. Treasuries.
``Some central banks are sensitive to capital gains and would start selling Treasuries if they see a top. Others are sensitive to foreign exchange fluctuations,'' Turner explained.
``One hypothesis -- and it's just an hypothesis -- is that the People's Bank of Japan would liquidate assets to generate U.S. dollars and be prepared to defend the Hong Kong dollar should there be a run on that currency when Hong Kong reverts to Chinese rule this weekend,'' Turner added. ``At this stage, it's all speculation.''
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:03
Scott Really>(Really): - A wise man can see that a sharp move up results in a sharp move down, so gold at 300,000 meters a second should make a spectacular return next week. You wait and see if I'm right. What even better is that a sharp gain will pull us out of this bear market. Just what we need!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:02
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Gary: Cash...
This brings a quote to mind:
In order to win you've got to set the stage
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:02
lurker here>(here): - I hope that CBs sell all the gold they have. Idiots. Then we will get a good laugh all the way to the bank
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:02
Roebear @addendum>(@addendum): - Captain Clerk: Splok! Lock on those Louis whatever tomes and have Scotty beam them up immediately, they're are only chance!
Splok: Illogical, captain.
Clerk: Energize! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 10:01
Chuck (?): - If gold drops to $300, I will buy all I can.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:59
GoldFan buy>(buy): - I hopr that gold drops to $1. I will buy 100,000.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:59
Scott keep going>(keep going): - tomP : You give me faith
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:58
Scott keep going>(keep going): - XAU - 1.01
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:57
tomP citynet.com>(citynet.com): - Time to buy more bullion, its cheaper!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:56
Gary larry,larry&moe.com>(larry,larry&moe.com): - NotaGoldbug,
I appologize for the behavior of other participants. I hate gold.
What do you recommend I invest my money in both short an long term? - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:54
RJ ALL>(ALL): - $335 once...................
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:53
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - First, a quote from the historian Macaulay - He alone reads history right who, observing how powerfully circumstances influence the feelings and opinions of men, how often vices pass into virtues and paradoxes into axioms, learns to distinguish what is accidental and transitory in human nature from what is essential and immutable.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:53
Amnesty @your guess is right>(@your guess is right): - Dow 20000 by end of day.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:53
Central Banker cb.com>(cb.com): - Yes Sir, NotaGoldbug!!
The only reason we hold gold ourselves is to protect simple people from buying it. After all gold is useless and has no reason to exist. Even when we sell it, we sell it to other CBS. To protect you. We do it for your benefit. We love you. We care!! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:52
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Such a wellspring of emotion!! I guess when your loosing
money you have to ventilate someway!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:52
Tortfeasor AU thoughts>(AU thoughts): - Gold, Schmold. Let's let some lawyers fight over those gold bars and when they get done floss our teeth with the resulting gold wire.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:51
Roebear @USSGoldbug>(@USSGoldbug): - Chekhov: Keptin Clerk, a dozin guldbears hev just decloaked off port and starboard!
BOOM, Lights flicker, smoke.
Clerk: Splok! Splok! What's our status!
Splok: Captain our shields have just absorbed the enrgy of 78 MegaBear fusion bombs. Shields down 82.24876%
Clerk: Scotty! Get those shields up!
Scotty Kaptan, it no use, those space scum bears hit me bairns right in the bullithium crystals. Kaptan, we're goin down!
Clerk: Scotty I need more power and I need it now!
Splok: Captain, may I suggest that it is logical that we capitulate
Clerk: Fire all phasers, fire bearton torpedoes!
Chekhov: Keptin, there's something on the wing, sommmeee THHIIING!
Static
End transcript last transmissions USS Goldbug
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:50
Nurse Jones hospital.com>(hospital.com): - I agree with you NotaGoldbug.
All the girls at my hospital say that they know nothing about gold. I think that is cause gold has no reason to exist. Its usless. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:47
Scott Oh Shit>(Oh Shit): - Gold 335 and falling fast!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:47
Auric @I seen the light>(@I seen the light): -
Just sold all gold holdings. Now margined long S+P. Nice to be in on the ground floor! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:46
Official any government>(any government): - You are correct citizen NotaGolbug.
Gold has no value and only enemies of the state and the people would buy gold. Trust us. We wil take care of you..........really good. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:44
Mooney @Patiently.Waiting.For/The.Sun.King>(@Patiently.Waiting.For/The.Sun.King): - Although the bottom may not yet actually be in, I believe it is the time for my Louis 16th quotation. My American friends, ( if I have any left after my anti-political discussion comments ) , will be happy to know that the tale was supposedly related by one Benjamin Franklin when he was residing in Paris, France during the period when America was struggling for its independance. BBIAF - Gone upstairs to dig out the ancient tome.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:43
Hannah revolution.com>(revolution.com): - Right on commrade NotaGoldbug.
Death to gold, the imperialist tool. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Gold has no reason to exist. Debt has every reason to go on and on and on forever. Long live the paper! We'll pile it so high that we can walk to the moon!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:41
Zeke kentucky.com>(kentucky.com): - Damn right NotaGoldbug.
Gold is for them rich people. They is stupid cause gold has no value.
We poor folk like them paper better cause its form our government, and we can trust our government. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:41
gunrunner apocolypse@gold>(apocolypse@gold): - Wait - gold does have a reason to exist! It weighs just a little less than lead... I'll melt it down and cast it into bullets! ( environmentalists hate lead anyway ) .....................
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:39
ASmith netcomm.net>(netcomm.net): - You guys are funny.
I do agree with NotaGoldbug. Gold really has no reason to exist. With todays technology we dont need it. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:37
Amnesty extraordinary>(extraordinary): - Golds just cuising for a bruising,
And he aint one for loosing,
Ya gotta know he's man,
Cause the dice is in the can.
He,s got some refrain,
And he sound just like a train.
Oooo wooo. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:35
The one Nirvan>(Nirvan): - Beat your bullion into plows and conductors.
Gold has no reason to exist.
Follow the paper. Worship the paper. Salvation is near. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:30
Scott Advice>(Advice): - What happens when gold paint is valued more than real gold? ... OR
What happend when XAU becomes negative? Will it cause a computer crash.... I bloody hope so! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:30
Greenspan and Rubin official announcment>(official announcment): - OUR mission has been acomplished.
Gold has no reason to exist. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:28
Puetz not really>(not really): - I ve been wrong all these years.
Gold has no value and no place in a civilized society!!! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:27
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Glad to see that gold investors have some humor left.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:27
Front not really>(not really): - Im leaving NY. Gold has no reason to exist.
I GIVE UP. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:26
Scott Advice>(Advice): - Ok guys: switch off computer, go swimming, movies or whatever. Come back next Friday after Hong Kong has got over its hangover and lets see where we are. Watching gold go down every 15 minutes will make you crazy!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:26
Strad Master not really>(not really): - I take up violin full time. Gold has no reason to exist! I give up too.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:24
George s. Cole not really>(not really): - My TA indicates that gold will go down to $225 today and $23.75 Monday.
Gold has no reason to exist. I give up - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:22
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at): - Look at http:///gold.graph.html ( sorry don't know how to connect the URL directly ) and tell me, if there is a mistake.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:21
Roebear @lairofgoldenbear>(@lairofgoldenbear): - 6pk 01:58
So does this mean golds going up or what? ( !: ) ) - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:21
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold down $345.00 now valued at -$10. If you want some gold we will pay you to take it away!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:19
GoldHATER The sign?>(The sign?): - Notagoldbug
Is this the sign you have been waiting for? Quick call your broker!!! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:18
CC goldbug@ormetal.com>(goldbug@ormetal.com): - Milhouse: Are you familiar with Charters Towers Gold ( CTO.ASX ) , if so, please e-mail me, I would like to discuss the issue.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:18
NutGoldbug toNotaGoldbug>(toNotaGoldbug): - Notagoldbug.
Please help me!!! I need to quit!!! I hate gold, I hate gold.
I hate it. It has no reason to exist!!! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:15
Gold anonymous i have a problem>(i have a problem): - I have been addicted to gold fo 7 years. NO MORE. I quit.
Gold has no reason to EXIST. Long live Central Banks!!
Long live governments and their paper!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:13
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Whats even worse is that Kitco has qutoes saying gold is 338.30 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA is this a guess or somthing!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:12
The last believer in gold im crying>(im crying): - I have reached the end. Gold has no use. It should not exist. I give up on gold!!!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:10
Gold holder game is over>(game is over): - Im selling it all!!
GOLD HAS NO REASON TO EXIST!
I give up! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:09
Gold lover final whistle>(final whistle): - Gold is useless!!! Im selling all my Krugs. Gold has no reason to exist. I give up too!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:08
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold sucks: why bother, everybody is selling and nobody is buying there is no market!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:07
AUFreak tears>(tears): - Buy stocks thats where unlimited profits are. I give up on gold. It has no reason to exist!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:06
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - The T in BT doesn't seem to stand for trader, rather I think it stands for...well let's just say that there are Vas Deferens in his lineage...
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:05
Goldbug idaho.com>(idaho.com): - This is the end. Gold is worthless! It has no reason to exist!!!!
I GIVE UP!!!!!!! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:04
Gold Dreamer its over for gold>(its over for gold): - I giv up after 11 years. Gold has no reason to exist. I quit.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:02
Gold Maniac no more>(no more): - Gold has no reason to exist! I give up!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 09:00
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - George S. Cole.. I love your comments and appreciate your optimism
about gold.
Your said:
Gold bear still alive and kicking. But not much longer methinks.
My target ( calculated technically ) still, short term 85 XAU. And I am looking
at the remote possibility of 50 XAU.. Sound silly Well, based on Everyone’s
optimistic view when XAU was at approx. 150 nothing is impossible when
other investments are obviously so much more profitable.
I love goldbugs because they believe, almost religiously, the opposite of
the facts.. Why? I really love this group!
When I see real despair, And everyone completely gives up on gold, when
I hear arguments as to why the metal has no reason to exist then a buying
opportunity will be at hand..
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 08:53
Speed @leaving for work>(@leaving for work): - Spot gold just popped down 1.80. The shorts have pulled out the heavy guns. BT looks cooked!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 08:45
lurker china>(china): - Chinese army plans for HK firmed up
HONG KONG, June 27 ( UPI ) _ Plans for the arrival next week of China's main People's Liberation
Army garrison in Hong Kong have been finalized.
Officials said Friday that about 4,700 soldiers are scheduled to arrive at 6 a.m. on July 1, the first day
after the British colony returns to China.
The office of Hong Kong's first post-colonial leader, Tung Chee-hwa ( ``Toong CHEE-wah'' ) , said the
troops will cross the border by land, sea and air.
Land-based troops will arrive in 21 armored cars and 400 other vehicles. Naval troops will come aboard
10 ships, and crews will be docking west of a new base being built by the Hong Kong government. Six
helicopters also are expected to fly into an air base in the semi-rural New Territories.
In recent weeks, about 200 People's Liberation Army soldiers have entered Hong Kong to prepare for
the arrival of the main garrison. Another 509 soldiers are scheduled to arrive at 9 p.m. on the night of
June 30 so they can be deployed at the stroke of midnight, when China's takeover is official.
Outgoing Gov. Chris Patten reacted to the news by warning China against deploying armored cars and
personnel just six hours after handover.
Patten said: ``The PLA, quite properly, is coming to Hong Kong as a symbol of Chinese sovereignty.
But the internal security of Hong Kong is a matter for the Hong Kong police and there isn't an internal
security problem.''
Hong Kong people are generally suspicious of China's 1-million-strong army because members of its
6.4-million population are either refugees from Communist China or their descendants. Many also
harbor memories of the army's crackdown on unarmed pro-democracy protesters at Tiananmen Square
in 1989.
It was unclear if China plans to station more troops in Hong Kong at a later date or if soldiers will be
rotated with other garrison members based in the neighboring Chinese city of Shenzhen.
_-
Copyright 1997 by United Press International.
_-
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:59
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - An explanation for Japan's threatened but not seen gold buying: After years of propping up the US economy through the buying of US paper Japan is now attempting to prop up the economy of their gold producing customers. Australia, S Africa, Canada and the new South American gold mining areas. I've heard less rational explanations.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:51
Bloomberg Shbloomberg blablablablablabla and bla>(blablablablablabla and bla): - nananana blabla how much crap do ya wanna hear?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:50
Bloomberg Shbloomberg blablablablablabla and bla>(blablablablablabla and bla): - nananana blabla how much crap do ya wanna hear?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:49
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold): - August gold off $1.30 this morning. Looks like still another spike down.
Gold bear still alive and kicking. But not much longer methinks. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:45
panda @ :->(@ :-): - Heard on the Kitco Street -- ROTFL :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:36
Donald oops>(oops): - Gary should have been Gery. I didn't mean to change your gender if thats the case.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:35
OBSERVER JAPAN>(JAPAN): - Why Japan will have to sell U.S. bond holdings
By JOHN CRUDELE
JAPAN might not be able to keep itself from selling massive amounts of U.S. government bonds. It just might
not happen right away.
Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto kicked up a whirlwind on Monday with comments about how his
country might start selling our government's bonds unless the U.S. stabilized its currency rates.
And the subject was fresh in Wall Street's minds when, on Wednesday, the Japanese were conspicuously
absent as buyers of Washington's new five-year notes.
Interest rates rose sharply and stocks dropped noticeably. Was Hashimoto following through on his threats?
As you know, stocks in this country fell a quick 192 points Monday on Hashimoto's comments and, from far
and near, commentators ( this one included ) started flapping their lips to spin what the Prime Minister said. The
Japanese said their PM was misunderstood -- I don't think so.
I don't have the space here to get into how such a move by Japan would hurt the U.S.
I've been writing about this for months and did it again on Tuesday, so go to the recycling bin. But in a
nutshell, if this blackmail threat is ever carried out by Japan, it would raise interest rates in the U.S., weaken the
dollar, and probably sink the stock market.
What everyone is missing, and my friend Pete Peterson -- former Commerce Secretary and an expert on Japan
-- pointed out to me is that Hashimoto and his successors will eventually have no choice but to liquidate U.S.
government securities.
Forget threats. Forget posturing. Forget every contorted explanation the spinners were able to come up with.
Peterson says the sale of U.S. government bonds by Japan is inevitable.
Peterson, now the head of Blackstone Group, has been preaching the gospel of adverse demographics for
years. And he thinks that the aging population will have an inevitably bad effect on deficits in both the U.S. and
Japan.
You've heard a lot about how Social Security in the U.S. will go broke somewhere down the road. And how
we'll all be eating dog food unless we start planning for this by socking away piles of money on our own.
But if you think the retirement system in the U.S. is messed up, just take a look at Japan.
In this country we are fretting because there will only be three people working to support every retiree in the
years ahead. In Japan, the ratio will be one-to-one, the experts say. By the year 2010, each Japanese worker
will not only have to clothe, feed and house his family but he'll also have to carry an old person on his financial
back.
The reasons are simple. The Japanese have a tendency to live longer and they have fewer kids. And with
improved health care, ironically the problem will only get worse.
Imagine the worst, says Peterson recently, just before winging his way to Japan. That ( Japan ) goes from a
huge creditor to a huge borrower.
Hashimoto's clout right now lies in the fact that Japan lends lots of money to the U.S. They currently hold $200
billion in Treasury securities. TWO HUNDRED BILLION. Add in real estate holdings and you get the idea that
we'll all soon be bowing to the Emperor.
And with each tick down in the value of the dollar, Japan not only loses money on its investment in U.S. bonds
but it also has worse prospects for selling TVs and everything else in the U.S.
How long will Japan wait before it starts selling U.S. bonds? Only that country knows. It could be as soon as
the next scandal that hits the Clinton administration ( expect one this summer ) , or it could be as late as 2010.
But it will happen. And don't take Peterson's knowledge of this stuff lightly. He's a man who is highly
regarded in Japan.
Copyright ©1997, N.Y.P. Holdings Inc.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:33
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - Is gold just another investment vehicle or is it a store of value?
Just another investment you say, then run like a rabbit. Store of value you say, then you have another great buying ( accumulating ) opportunity. Gold is cheap by any measure. Get it now and you will own the worldwithin 2 years. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:27
Donald @CB's Are Selling>(@CB's Are Selling): - Gary: If the CB's are selling you have to ask yourself why. Each probably has a different reason. Are they cooking their books to show dollar reserves? Do they need the money to pay bills? If they are selling then an equally, or more important question is who is doing the buying who is the other side of the deal and why are they buying. The answer is quite likely from weak hands to strong hands. In other words the world scene is on the verge of a big shift, ala England to U.S. in 1932. Is this the U.S. to Japan shift? Is the U.S. taking down its dollar reserve allies with it?
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:19
Mike Sheller Heard on the Kitco Street>(Heard on the Kitco Street): - Heard on the Kitco Street hilarious! A must for the best of Kitco collection ( available on CD and Zip disk ) . I didn't know RJ got up this early in the morning.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:18
Tortfeasor Jokes of the morng>(Jokes of the morng): - Heard--great stuff!
And did you hear the one about the lawyer who could not predict the market very well; took it in the briefs and more---
Joke #1
What's the difference between a female lawyer and a pit bull?
Lipstick.
What do you call 20 lawyers skydiving from an airplane?
Skeet.
What do you get when you cross a bad politician with a crooked
lawyer?
Chelsea.
If you see a lawyer on a bicycle, why should you never swerve to hit
him?
It might be your bicycle.
Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, an honest lawyer and an old drunk are
walking down the street together when they simultaneously spot a hundred
dollar bill. Who gets it?
The old drunk, of course; the other three are mythical creatures.
It was so cold last winter ... ( How cold was it? ) ... that I saw a
lawyer with his hands in his own pockets.
A man walked into a lawyer's office and inquired about the lawyer's
rates. $50.00 for three questions, replied the lawyer. Isn't that awfully
steep? asked the man. Yes, the lawyer replied, and what was your
third question?
You're trapped in a room with a tiger, a rattlesnake and a lawyer. You
have a gun with two bullets. What should you do?
Shoot the lawyer. Twice.
What do you call a hundred lawyers in jail?
A good start.
Joke #2
A Jewish lawyer was troubled by the way his son turned out, and went to
see his Rabbi about it.
I brought him up in the faith, gave him a very expensive bar mitzvah, and
cost me a fortune to educate him. Then he tells me last week he has
decided to be a Christian. Rabbi, where did I go wrong?
Funny you should come to me, said the Rabbi. Like you I too brought
my boy up in the faith, put him through the University, cost me a fortune,
and then one day he too comes and tells me he has decided to become a
Christian.
What did you do? asked the Lawyer.
I turned to G*d for the answer replied the Rabbi.
And what did He say? pressed the Lawyer.
G*d said, 'Funny you should come to me...'
Joke #3
For 3 years, the young attorney had been taking his brief vacations at
this country inn. The last time he'd finally managed an affair with the
innkeeper's daughter. Looking forward to an exciting few days, he
dragged his suitcase up the stairs of the inn, then stopped short. There
sat his lover with an infant on her lap!
Helen, why didn't you write when you learned you were pregnant? he
cried. I would have rushed up here, we could have gotten married, and
the baby would have my name!
Well, she said, when my folks found out about my condition, we sat up
all night talkin' and talkin' and decided it would be better to have a
bastard in the family than a lawyer. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:14
Mike Sheller New Moon, Charts for Bonds, Gold>(New Moon, Charts for Bonds, Gold): - POORBOYS: Profound comment re New Moon. I too have found it to be the most treacherous. CHARTS: At the charts this morning - The Long Bond has stalled at 113 resistance as surmised. Stochastic is going down dramatically, and moving average visible spread is now severe, indicating more downside. Near-term support at 110. 106 is still the big divide. Below 106 and bonds come out of their Rhino triangle on the DOWNSIDE, and bigtime. Last dance here might be over. It is hard to believe this is a consolidation before a run thru 113 ( which would be either a spectacular boost to stox, or signal a recession ) but that is now the OUTSIDE possibility. Gold - the August gold looks to be making a mini rounded bottom. Stochastic is comfortably low, and a gap is opening between moving averages. This is a bottoming configuration. A rally from here will start off in dribs and drabs before it picks up steam. 346.50 is still the level to exceed but longs can test the waters here. A one or two day spike, if it materializes, might scare some bulls, and embolden bears, but it will be the signal for a final washout and reversal. It's all in slo-mo, and it won't yet be the big rally we're all waiting for, but we're going up.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:10
Heard on the Kitco Street Now showing at a theatre near you...>(Now showing at a theatre near you...): - ACT 1
Gold: Overnight - a new low ! I'm so ashamed ...
Puetz: But I just told everyone you had bottomed !
Gold: I know. Depressing, isn't it - I don't know how low I'll sink...
SHOUTER: THREETWOFIVETHREETWOFIVETHREETWOFIVETHREETWOFIVETHREETWOFIVE..!!
Lurker: I've just mortgaged my kids and put everything I have into long
gold futures. Does anyone know when gold is going to go up ?
George S Cole: A final blow-off in the Dow later this summer, and a selling climax in gold and gold stocks, will precede the secular bull...
Blonde: Ooh George, I love it when you talk dirty...
Mike Sheller: When the Moon is in the Seventh House, and Jupiter aligns
with Uranus...
cherokee: when flux and chaos have ridden the ether to infinity and
back again, when the smoke-signal-mobile has new rings,
and when i have found the damn shift key on this keyboard !
Vronsky: Guest Guru Greenspan tells you when at www.baldeagle.com ...
BT: When I make it happen, according to my secret master plan !
GFD: What BT really means to say is - he hasn't got a clue !
Scott: This actually is a rally - the lower price is just to give the
illusion of a downtrend for the guestimates !
TED:
All: Come back, TED. All is forgiven !
Earl: And bring your Spread !
Front: What's wrong, Panda ?
Panda: I've just found out that I'm a BEAR !! Why didn't anyone tell me ?
Tortfeasor: Did you hear the one about the actress and the bishop ?
Money Bags: Does anyone want to hear MY latest joke ?
All: NO !! - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 06:51
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at): - Bloombergs morning-gold-report for australia tells again the story about the potential central banks sellings. Gold is trapped between 336.85 and 340.50 with some buying-power on the downside of this range. The question I try to answer for myself is: If I would be a CB - the responsible manager - would I tell the markets in advance that I plan to sell a huge amount of gold? Half a year ago I interviewed a Austrian central banker and he confirmed, that if they sell anything they try to get as much money as possible - like any other investor. I simply don't believe that CBs sell at todays level - of course, they could be a serious break for every upmove. But when will they start selling? If the goldprice increases and the CBs want to make the profit, tey need no get the budgets under control they'll probably wait a while and start selling at higher levels ( 370, 380? ) , otherwise they'd kill every chance to get more money by themself.
So at the moment for the goldmarket it's much more important what George Soros and Co are doing. They just made a nice profit in Bangkok, let's see where they go next. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 06:50
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Are the nerds running the markets? Bill Gates leader of the nerd ( computer revolution ) has given the brokerage firms and the think tanks the ability to trade billions in a matter of seconds with no emotional hangups.Watching the markets this week was like standing in the centre of a computer war.What chance has the little investor I think none.Big Trader a few more days and you might make the history books.Mike Sheller I find the most dangerous moon the new moon everything is hidden as the new cycle begins.Any moon is a c.c.r moon to me as I have many moon squares in my personal chart.Ted get back we all miss you.As far as Gold is concerned it's a very sick story.Happy Trails
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 06:22
Mike Sheller Moon, June, Swoon, Loon?>(Moon, June, Swoon, Loon?): - STEVE PUETZ: Not that I want to sound like a fussy Virgo ( which I'm not ) but I suppose the full Moon phenomenon could be called :astrological in a manner of speaking. As you may be aware, various kinds of social, human, and animal activity of unusual magnitude tends to occur at the Full Moon. If we accept that energy flows from all parts of the universe, visible and invisible, are constantly circulating to, through, and past our planet, then we might also accept that such activity comes in cyclic waves - just like everything else. The Full Moon part of the lunar cycle is clearly a period of maximum reflected sunlight toward the earth. In other words, the planet gets an additional dose at night, along with whatever has flowed to its facing surfaces during the day. This may be symbolic of various levels of energy cycle activity, seen and unseen, that perhaps infuses the denizens of our world with a tad more zip than they can adequately handle. Most humans being somewhat unbalanced to begin with, will exhibit an extra dollop of mania at such times. Some have ascribed this to extra gravitation, etc, which is just a more measurable form of energy interaction. I think the light of the moon is symbolic for less visible activities, IMHO. Yes, there is an effect. Arch Crawford tends to use the interrelationship of the Moon & Planets among themselves more in his work. I tend toward using the relationships of the transiting planets to the fixed horoscopes of people, corporations, exchanges, contract dates, etc, myself. So when the Moon is full, I just stand in the back yard and sing Bad Moon Rising from Creedence Clearwater. Usually after a Martini.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 06:09
Mike Sheller My heart belongs to dada>(My heart belongs to dada): - 6PAK: You forgot to add: ac-centuate the positive and e-liminate the negative, latch on to the affirmative, and don't mess with mister in-between.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 04:56
Milhouse Turning Point ?>(Turning Point ?): -
All of my Aust gold shares were up today on reasonable volume. This hasn't happened in a long time. I rarely try to predict market timing as I believe it is an impossible task, however sometimes I just can't help myself, so here goes : The turning point for gold is very, very close ( if it didn't actually occur yesterday, it should occur within 2 weeks ) .
Off to China for a few days.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 04:54
Amnesty @ the time zone>(@ the time zone): - Sweet dreams in REM and hold the vision.
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 04:21
Donald @All in>(@All in): - Scotty: This is a Gold Bear Market. As someone said, buy low, sell high. If you didn't have a bear market you couldn't do that. But think of this...just suppose you are wrong and we have a deflation. In that event gold drops to $200 and you have a $136 tax loss. Property drops to peanuts, you take your tax write off, sell your gold at $200 and use the money to buy the whole block you live on. Give me a loss like that one!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 03:31
George S. Cole CB Treasury purchases>(CB Treasury purchases): - Steve Puetz:
I have been following foreign CB treasury holdings for years. On a number of occasions these have dropped sharply for a week or two, then took off again. It is the major trend that counts.
In this regard, the foreign CBs have stopped buying treasuries on balance the past few months. The trend does seem to have changed, but I wouldn't overemphasize one week's data. They have stopped buying, but it remains to be seen whether they will sell heavily on a sustained basis. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 02:35
Flushing Dalton @it wont fit>(@it wont fit): - EB. All experiences I have had with Mr. Dalton and the turd that wont fit have ended in either complete catastrophe with me almost munching on the
stuff or its sucked down the shooter with so much force that a tidal
wave was created when its hit ground zero.
Lets hope this time I am covered from head to toes in it and if it
starts leaking into the home of the good people below me lets hold a
party. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 01:58
6pak The World in Reverse @ Goldbugs>(The World in Reverse @ Goldbugs): - A somewhat Dadaistic poem:
Consciousness processes reality as appearing expectations, subjective
interpretations transforming truth into facts.
Make judgements from results, because either ideas or hypotheses discount
( continuously ) errors.
Believe, don't attribute opinions to theory, mere flying through clouds
of inconsistency.
Discovering avoids partially neglecting. Neglecting partially avoids
discovering inconsistency of clouds, through flying mere theory to
opinions attribute.
Don't believe errors continuously discount hypotheses or ideas either,
because results from judgements make facts into truth: transforming
subjective expectations appearing as reality processes: consciousness. - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 00:53
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Speed: Thanks for the Deaner URL. Now I can sleep easier!
For all: Please don't confuse me with Scott. Although that is a very fine name, and he knows far more than me of the gold market, I'm Scotty and you all can get beamed up anytime!! :- ) )
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 00:32
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout): - Well, Friday is here and where is Big Trader. I guess he meant that Friday Big Trader would show us how the metals market put everyone to sleep from boredom!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 00:28
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious Metals
over 120 Market days. Shows possible double bottom
forming. UP for the 4th of July ?
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm120.gif - Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 00:24
EB SQ7 - Old crop/New crop - The Big SQUEEZE>(SQ7 - Old crop/New crop - The Big SQUEEZE): - Cherokee oh great seer of things good AND bad and Slayer of Big Dummy Trader... this bean thing may play out sooner than one might think. Mathematics says so. We must trade using the same Gods...If I may be so bold. Thanks again for your posts, they fill me.
Too add: June 97 futures mag. has a great feature on China and the world markets. Must read. They are to be reckoned with as many have said. It will be a very positive thing for everyone who gears up for their inevitable rise as THE powerhouse.
'till later...
AWAY?
EB
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 00:23
cherokee @less-for-more>(@less-for-more): - ezau--
look at the crb to get a good picture of inflation. it is as
clear as the nose on the end of their faces, and yet they
tell the people they serve that it is not so.----higher
prices on commodities is not inflationary....and it is
believed by the sleep-walkers, and the press prints it as
they are told to print it.
merrill lynch is predicting a 20% chance of a fed rate increase
of 25pts at the july meeting. they predict a 48% chance by sept 30. they predict a 72% chance by october. ( source ibd--6-26-97 )
there is no question that we are/have been experiencing inflationary
pressures for a long time. the big question is... when will the
government actually acknowledge the fact? that will cause the sleepwalkers to also acknowledge it....if only in passing in-difference.
cherokee!; ) miner of the copper bulls, and fed rate increase seeker.
will up-link with neutrinos to seek help for apache, as bre-x still
haunts his soul. my opinion on bre-x and big trader are preserved
for posterity, and they were right!
- Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 00:18
itsy bitsy trader @water spout>(@water spout): - I guess Friday's Big Trader's show me day?!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:50
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - I agree; Sometime the gold and discounted shares have to dry up and force a rally. I think June 30th is the day. I think gold is oversold and something is going to break loose after the finacial year. Its just a gut feeling, but often I right!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:49
Front To MIRO :>(To MIRO :): -
MIRO:
You're welcome .... I guess that means that there are a few more people now who know about the mutual fund ins and outs a bit better. Glad it helped...
TTFN - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:45
CC goldbug@ormetal.com>(goldbug@ormetal.com): - Steve Puetz: that central banks sold over $7 billion worth of US Treasury securities last week Is this net of their purchases ?
BTW, do you have the current numbers of their total holdings of US treasurys. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:44
GVC @FDPMX >(@FDPMX ): - FDPMX has been down 14 days in a row now! deeply oversold and well overdue for hopefully a nice bounce. If it can go down 14 days in a row , then the optimist in me says it can go up 14 days in a row once all this end of month, quarter, fiscal year shenanigans is out of the way.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:41
ezau swami@sag.com>(swami@sag.com): - M.SHEllER@2117: I appreciate you vision. Good vibrations/
aura. ANYONE: Financial assets are obviously inflated. How
can a huge part of the economy be inflated and not affect
the other parts. Isn't anyone cashing out? Limos haven't
doubled in count on Wall St? Big tips aren't tossed around?
A silk tie doesn't cost $50? We don't have more money
chasing about the same amount of goods/services? The Gov.
thinks the taxpayers are lambs for the shearing? You bet.
Crafty talk will dump gold only so far. The patience of a
gold bug should not be under estimated. We have history of
a few thousand years. Whats the confederate dollar worth
now? The 1980 peso? The 1939 dollar? ....under control. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:20
cherokee @hal-pc.org///make-my-day>(@hal-pc.org///make-my-day): - apache--
you must believe in bt also. the delusion will pass, as does
flatulance. click your heels 3 times and repeat after big bird,
there is no place like kitco
there is no place like kitco
there is no place like kitco
toto leave that em pole alone! - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:17
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - For all Australians: Some gold stocks may be reluctant to move up untill after June 30th ( end financial year ) as some people may sell stocks at discount prices to claim against TAX. Hong Kong, June 30th, rising Gold price and falling DOW may produce something on or after next Tuesday.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:04
6pak 20 billion @ Tax Grab>(20 billion @ Tax Grab): - 20 Billion tax grab, Canadians ignore, insidious tax increase
BRACKET CREEP It is the perfect tax. ( hidden ) Thanks to Mulroney.
http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyTaxes/jun24_the20btaxg.html
Figures can lie, and, liars can figure. eh! - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:04
apache warpath>(warpath): - cherokee - go to bed!!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 23:00
cherokee @tanning-hut>(@tanning-hut): - putting the finishing touches on the most utterly
disgusting hide that has ever crossed the cross-hairs
of the long-bow. seems that there is a white stripe
running from stem to stern on the critter. turned-out
there was a collar with a name. hope it was not one
of YOUR relatives. its' name WAS BIG ( DUMMY ) TRADER!!
the critter had a forked tongue, and begged for mercy
with promises that were absolutely absurd. the arrow
flew faster than normal, and wreaked extra havoc with
the lying, forked tongued defiler of the gold spirit.
may its' ashes be scatterd to the four winds for appropriate
dispersal into the voids between dimensions for all eternity.
the grains are almost ready for round two of the '97 bull.
chaos and flux have not forgotten about their duties. you and
yours all have reserved seats for the greatest show on earth,
soon to be playing in local arenas for all to see. el nino
is here at their behest, and he will show, so that those with-out
power will know, who holds the un-stoppable forces at bay and
who allows them to play.
cherokee!; ) burner of the midnight oil, and slayer of gumby would-be
BIG ( dummy ) TRADERS!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:56
Insider YOU ARE A MONUMENTALLY STUPID>(YOU ARE A MONUMENTALLY STUPID): - geff: If you had a half-wit I would take you seriously - but alas it is not the case. For humor sake, allow us to enjoy more of you asinine brayings. With gold in such a dismal trend, we need some entertainment!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:51
ark saltedcore@in.camera>(saltedcore@in.camera): - I was picking some blackberries this morning and had a pail
of about two quarts when a big dump truck pulls up along side
the road where I was standing. The ole boy driver says, Not
ready to pick yet, too many reduns. I says, I reckon I'll
get a few. He drives off in a cloud of dust.
Then I think, gol-dang!, picking berries is just like buying
gold stocks. That good ole boy looks down and can't help
but see all the juicy, plump blackberries I have but doesn't.
When the average joe decides now is the time to buy, all the
juicey picks will have dissappeared. One can't wait untill
it is obvious. How many chart readers are waiting? The
proper formation is like a whistle, when you hear it, it is
too late. In other words, as I have said before, buy gold stocks
now. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:51
Speed Spent>(Spent): - Scotty: Deaner is at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139/.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:42
Tortfeasor Minor joke of the evening>(Minor joke of the evening): - I don't know about the rest of you but I will be glad when Ted returns from his family reunion. I miss his caustic wit. Since Mike posted a little something this evening I thought I might follow that up with a bit of levity to get us ready for a hot Friday.
It's just to hot to wear clothes today, said Jack as he
stepped out of the shower. Honey, what do you think the
neighbors would think if I mowed the lawn like this?
Probably that I married you for your money. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:39
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Mike Sheller, your comments are always interesting to read. Especially thanks for the HMO joke. Being on an HMO the truth is painfully clear. Get out of town Hillary and take your husband with you.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:32
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - Insider: If you already know that ML is stacking the deck against you, and you buy the calls anyway, then you are stupid. God help this country if you and your ilk are ever able to pull off a class action suit.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:29
panda @zzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzz): - TOO quiet here.... Good night all.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:28
panda @>(@): - Japanese imports of palladium down? Must be because they don't want any of that 'worthless' stuff. :- ) ) Some import numbers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/26/z0009_1764.html
You know gold is in the doldrums when this forum is this quiet! Not even a food fight! :- ) ) - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:10
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Where's Deaner? I have not seen his posts!! Anyone remember his URL? I have a brand new machine and am starting over in the bookmark department......thanks!!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 22:07
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Just wanted everyone to know that as of today I'm all in on the gold market. I boosted my mutuals and added a few more Eagles to my stash. Although I too think gold is due to a rise, I don't get as emotional as some of the posts I've seen! :- ) ) But, I can conclude that the general consenses is an upward move is expected before the leaves start to turn. FWIW, I'm completely out of the stock market. So now, I'll just wait and see. If things are still stagnant a month from now, I will again add to my two investments.
Who else can comment on actually plunking down some moola in hopes of a rise
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:54
Puetz @ The X-files>(@ The X-files): - Mike Sheller: I don't believe in astrology. However, on rare ocassions ( when markets are in a mania ) , I've noticed they tend to trade with the moon. That is, they rise from the new-moon to the full-moon. They decline from the full-moon to the new-moon. Gold did this for more than two years during the early 1980s when it went bezerk.
The final crash in all of the famous market manias began around the time of a full moon.
Since Fall 1996, the stock market has traded this way. All of the sell-offs have occurred at the time of a full moon. This includes the latest decline which started on the full-moon on June 23rd!!!!
Do market manias attract lunatics? Do reasonable people head for the exits? I would like your reaction to this strange phenomena. This is one for the X-files. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:44
Puetz @ Panda>(@ Panda): - I guess the charts do a very good job of summarizing the supply-demand situation.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:39
panda @>(@): - Puetz -- My bond chart hasn't forgotten... :- )
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:32
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - I'm surprised. I threw in the Merrill Lynch quote by Arnold to show what the gold-bears were saying. I didn't think it would draw much reaction, but it did. The news I thought would bring the most reaction -- that central banks sold over $7 billion worth of US Treasury securities last week -- hasn't been commented on.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:31
Mike Sheller Forgive me Ted>(Forgive me Ted): - A joke e-mailed from a friend in Vermont ( Thank goodness Ted isn't around to hear that ) .
Three health professionals arrive at the Pearly Gates. St. Peter addresses the first
one, and what did you do below to deserve to come up here?
I was a physician, the man replied. I'm sure that over the years I made some bad
calls but on the whole I feel that I been of some help to humanity.
Saint Peter reaches out for his hand and says, you sound like just the right person for
this place. Come right in. He turns to the second person and asks the same question.
I was a nurse,she replied. I spent my life trying to give relief to other people's suffering even though at times I was overwhelmed by the task.
St. Peter smiles and says you sound just like the person we need. Welcome to Heaven. He then turns to the third person and asks the same question again.
I Managed an HMO, the man replied,stepping forward. I had to make a lot of tough decisions, money being tight and all those indigent people, you know. But on the whole I provided some decent care.
St Peter stroked his beard than began entering data into his computer. After a few minutes he turns to the man and says, Okay, you've been approved for five days in Heaven. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:27
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com): - Current positions, if you're following these trades keep stop on GCQ7 at 338.0 stop close only on long positions purchased under 340. The risk is $200 a contract with a potential of $1500-2000. On purchases of ABX at 22-1/4 or lower keep stop at 21 stop close with an objecctive of 27-28. On XAU calls purchased under 97, hold, the market may still test 94-95. First objective 110-112. I am at breakeven or have slight profits in all these positions.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:25
panda @>(@): - FWIW column, gold will have to decisively break $340 to change the trend. I would like to see a $5 break out to the upside very soon. To me, it looks like one of two things. Gold gets stuck between $335 to $340 in trendless trading, or we go lower. :- (
What could save it? A crisis of some sort. Financial, political ( ? ) , Space Aliens, I'll take anything at this point!
I have noticed the S.A. ADRs are approaching their 1993 lows, and getting cheaper...
Regarding all this talk about Mutual Fund redemptions, haven't you heard? Everyone is in it for the loooong run! :- ) ) - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:23
Mike Sheller Shanghaid>(Shanghaid): - FUNDY: Shanghai is, and has long been, the most sophisticated, worldly city in the People's Republic. A long time finance center, my folks in China tell me it is the government's intention that it be the financial center of the nation after Hong Kong is absorbed. Entrepreneurs and citizens with whom I have close contact are even moving from Beijing, or sending out advance parties and corporate extensions into Shanghai. Real Estate construction there is booming, and apartments are a very nice investment for those who can afford them. The Shanghaise have always been a bit more cosmopolitan than the rest of the Eastern seaboard Chinese.
The young people are very encouraging. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:21
vronsky Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom >(Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom ): - CNBC-TV Financial Celebrity believes market still not seen top - but its on tippy-toes. On Gold: “...this is what a bottom looks like.” Gene Inger letter Forecast:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:17
Mike Sheller blackout on Long Island>(blackout on Long Island): - Post storm Blackout sent me, the wife, & dog into the neighborhood for a walk. Encountered the most magnificent rainbow I've seen in a while. A Long while. A little girl in the street asked innocently Is there gold over there? Is it a sign, Kitcoites? Yes, Virginia...Maple Leafs and Kruggerrands, and Philharmonics. All glistening in the setting sunlight. Yes Virginia...there is gold there...
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:16
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Byron: In addition, your chart shows that the stochastics have formed a formed a bottom in place since last July. Also of note are the massive engulfing patterns at signigicant tops. ... See one of those in the future and know its time to pick up the dice and run like hell.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 21:02
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Since the Japanese have been occupying some space here of late, I thought some might be interested in seeing an overlay of the J-YEN on the GC chart. Note the recent divergence in last month's action.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:54
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*): -
If my numbers are correct, today's London PM Fixing @ $336.95 is a FOUR YEAR LOW.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:54
Jack Hashimoto>(Hashimoto): -
Plaintalker: Thats why Hashimoto is hinting at diversification.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - For those interested in a wider view of PMs, here is a ratio chart of PL/GC. Its taken from the continuing futures chart. The MA is 20 days.
It appears that PL just got a little ahead of itself on the recent runup.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:41
Plaintalker walking the tightrope>(walking the tightrope): - If as Rubin says Japan owns 300 Billion in Treas and assuming 6.75% interest and an additional 50 Billion each yr from the trade deficit, the Japanese would have approx 1 1/4 trillion in just 10 years and growing by over 120 Billion in the 11 th yr.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:34
D.A. wager>(wager): - RJ:
One ounce of the yellow metal says 350 before 325. You in? - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:33
DJ Richly dressed!>(Richly dressed!): - This is an application for platinum I haven't heard of before. Somewhat humerous, but also an indicator, hmmmm.
http://www.cma-inc.com/clients/platinum/platnews.html
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:22
Pedro @ witsend.>(@ witsend.): - It's begining to look as though that dagger BT mentioned is aimed at the heart of us goldbugs.And as for paradigm shifts it appears that gold is caught in one that began in 1971. While gold refuses to submit for the momment to the present onslaught of bad news neither can it bounce much to the positive sounds of Mr.Hashimoto.Is this because the only buyers left are a bunch of wounded goldbugs clinging tenaciously to a golden fancy. But let us remember it is not REASON that moves markets its's Greed and Fear.And it appears that only the latter can provide a bullish spark for gold at this point. I'm still holding on to my towel mind you, but only just!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:20
Byron @ Follow Up:>(@ Follow Up:): - Earl: Here's another chart on weekly gold. Go down to the bottom and take a look at the stocastic blue and red lines. You should see the pattern you pointed out. But notice that the Feb 97 lows were not as low as the July 96 lows.
http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin70.gif - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:05
Machf15 machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - Vronsky,
Thanks for the web site. I've been surfing for the exact thing.
Mach - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 20:04
Insider MERRILL LYNCH'S GOLD CALL BUSINESS>(MERRILL LYNCH'S GOLD CALL BUSINESS): - It is a well-known fact that Merrill Lynch generates humongous profits in commissions as the world's largest broker of gold call options. As long as the gold price remains subdued, this bonanza will continue unabated - and with very little risk to ML. It is even suspected ML acts as principal in writing the gold calls -- WHICH NEARLY ALWAYS EXPIRE WORTHLESS to the hapless innocent victums who bought the calls. To put it into Street parlance, it ain't kosher business. For this reason alone Merrill's opinion is totally biased - based upon the company's profit motive vs the public's right to a fair and honest opinion. These activities should be investigated by those government agencies established to protect the public. And if for political reasons this is nor feasible, then some young, energetic and honest Congressman should pick up the banner for the gullible buyers of 'stacked-deck' called Gold Calls. I believe the applicable term is CLASS-ACTION!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 19:28
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Given the effort made to stem the drop in the DOW tide today I would prognosticate that the DOW will be up 75 tomorrow. The paper market's bullish position is becoming less and less supportable as the days pass. This paper bull is about as fresh to my psychic mind as rancid hamburger rife with gold maggots. I further as I survey the mists and potions about me see gold rising again tomorrow to the old 340 benchmark and that silver will again teeter at the 4.80 an ounce touchstone preparatory to its rally which will preceed gold's big rally. First platinum, then silver and then gold. The glass fogs and the vision fades.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 19:14
George S. Cole Ted Arnold>(Ted Arnold): - Steve Puetz:
I wouldn't take Ted Arnold or any of his Wall Street clones seriously. They have a HIDDEN AGENDA -- keep gold declining so that the paper peddled by the Wall Street houses will keep going up. Ted Arnold is not an objective analyst here, but rather a purveyor of BIG LIES. These people are propagandists not serious analysts.
I'm not arguing that all gold bears including those here at KITCO are dishonest. Far from it. But anybody who Takes Ted Arnold and Andy Smith seriously as gold analysts is VERY VERY NAIVE. These peoples' job is to drive gold down by any means possible.
BTW, if gold does drop to $250, the Dow probably will be pushing 12,000 or more. How can Merrill Lynch employee Arnold possibly be objective ( in public ) on the gold price outlook. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:55
Miro @Spooky Run on Mutual Funds>(@Spooky Run on Mutual Funds): - DJ, Steve, and all: thanks for forcing me to take more detailed look at
MF rules. My previous response that you can move retirement MF money
between family of funds is true up to the point when the dam break loose!
When BAD things happen, investors are out of luck! The following
is the excerpt from Fidelity rules:
-------
Your exchanges may be restricted or
refused if the fund receives or anticipates
simultaneous orders affecting
significant portions of the fund’s assets.
In particular, a pattern of exchanges
that coincides with a market timing
strategy may be disruptive to the fund.
Although the fund will attempt to give
you prior notice whenever it is reason-ably
able to do so, it may impose these
restrictions at any time. The fund reserves
the right to terminate or modify
the exchange privilege in the future.
This is followed by usual warning:
----
Mutual fund shares are not deposits or obligations
of, or guaranteed by, any depository
institution. Shares are not insured by the FDIC,
Federal Reserve Board, or any other agency,
and are subject to investment risks, including
possible loss of principal amount invested.
-------
This means that when the plunge begins, you go down with it
without any chance to protect your money. Thank you but thank you
- I just moved the rest of my stock allocation to a parking place. I
left some money in metal MF because I stepped in too soon - hopefully,
in a long run, I'll recover it.
Why being in Mutual Funds? The heck for every $1 I put into my 403K
account, company chipped in $1.20 - difficult to beat! On the other
side MF was the only place where I could put it and get some good
return.
I am more then certain that 90% of investors in retirement MF do not
read the fine print, so more when all PR press says market is the
safe place to be - don’t worry be happy!
My question is: if baby boomers can’t take the money out of plunging
market how deep it will go assuming the outflow of money will be
slowed down by the restrictions which are in place?!
My advice would be get out before you can!!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:47
GVC @Earl/charts>(@Earl/charts): - EARL: gold does love those triangle patterns!! I was always told most markets tend to break towards the flat side of the triangle. Although, gold is notorious for false breakouts, so if it does break to the downside, I would say there's a good chance for a quick reversal back up through. Needless to say, the first 3 wks of July should be most interesting!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:41
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Sorry 'bout that. I failed to review B4 post. ... Here is the daily chart.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:41
Fennell fennell@ntl.sympatico.ca>(fennell@ntl.sympatico.ca): - So where is gold headed? What is everybody's oppinion?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:40
yellowdog @kitco>(@kitco): - So what happens if producers sell to the banks and then after a while the banks sell to the producers and then so on and so on and so on.....
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:39
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Here is the daily continuing chart showing the same relative pattern for the recent May/June 97 period with Feb 97 to the left.
These are offered as curiosities but they would seem to be bear some relation to fractals in that they are repeating patterns of dissimalar magnitude. Anyone into the application of fractals to TA?
Since the first 2 patterns resolved themselves to the downside; what are the bets regarding the direction of the third? - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:32
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Some interesting recurring patterns in the continuing gold futures chart. This one is the weekly with emphasis on the Jan/Feb 96 period. Note the overall shape of the action during that time and compare it to the Feb 97 to now action. Very similar in appearance. Next post to follow will be a daily which will show a third pattern of still smaller magnitude.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:25
Roebear @golden throne>(@golden throne): - EB Commode. Everything is just going commodiously isn't it.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:20
EB Here I sit in silent bliss, listening to the falling...>(Here I sit in silent bliss, listening to the falling...): - WHOOPS!
but you know the rest - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:16
EB can anyone spell Camode?>(can anyone spell Camode?): - KAMODE? CAMOD? CHAMODE?
i give up...
AWAY
EB - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:13
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - SUPPLY HITS THE BOND MARKET: Knight Ridder says: The late dive in Treasury prices was linked to rumors about a Brady bond buyback that could result in the sale of Treasury zero coupons... Also, the supply of new corporate securities and the bond market's efforts to digest this week's Treasury issuance of 2-year and 5-year notes have played a role in the price declines.
Hummmm? Too much supply, not enough demand = lower prices. I wonder how central banks will be able to sell their Treasuries in this environment?
Item: The Federal Reserve reported today that foreign central banks sold $7.3 billion worth of Treasury securities last week -- thus, reducing their holdings to $634.7 billion. In other words, they still have 100 times the amount sold last week still waiting to be sold.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:13
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Well today's move off the lows finally scared me ( I was short ) . I covered all my shorts today. I didn't go long thought. Looking at my data I see that open interest increased by 10,000 on June 18. The high that day was 344.40. I would think that a close above 344.40 would get me to go long. The lowest close we had so far was 339.00, which happened yesterday. I would problable go short again if we close below this tomorrow.
One think that I did not like was the XAU surging and then I get home and see it closed up only alittle. HUMM - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:12
EB @Gold in The Toilet...Call the Roto-Rooter>(@Gold in The Toilet...Call the Roto-Rooter): - YES. Gold is in the TOILET. And it seems that everyone is rushing in to Give a flush or two ( news 4 u 14:29 and countless others ) .
And as everyone is trying to flush down this GOLD, this PARIAH, it is acting like the very large turd that it has been and is refusing to go down the drain.
That being said... that Camode is getting so backed up, and so crapped on that when the bowl starts to overflow... not ten, not one hundred Roto-Rooter men/ladies could stem the tide of poop we call GOLD.
That being said...
AWAY!
EB - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 18:02
Puetz @ For what it's worth>(@ For what it's worth): - Knight Ridder reports: Bearishness in the physical market after a widely attended conference in Prague convinced some [gold] producers to lock in prices now and at least guarantee themselves a return on their product.... This producer selling ran counter to banks' moves, with institutions moving to buy metal throughout the day. This helped give gold buoyancy but was not enough to spark a short-covering rally.
It looks like banks are finally buying, only to have gold-mining companies pick up their selling.
Ted Arnold, of Merrill Lynch issued a bearish report on gold. Some felt this exerted some downward pressure on the yellow metal: The bulls just don't seem to realize that the weight of hot money in this world is not going to pour back into gold as it did in the 1970s. Gold has had its day in the wset as a financial asset and as a hedge system risk. We continue to believe that the action will be in the currency and bond markets and the financial futures markets. It won't be in physical gold or in gold futures. Expect to see $250 an ounce before you see $450. Be alert to sell into all rallies that come your way.
I wonder if a crash in the financial markets and a US Dollar crisis will alter Mr. Arnold's view, and others who think like him?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 17:59
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - Ken Tatum: Welcome aboard. While I am not TA proficient enough to give you an answer I am sure someone will. Little slow here this afternoon, hang in there. Pay attention to that smokemobile driver, Cherokee, good calls.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 17:50
cherokee @getting-onboard>(@getting-onboard): - if the recent hasimoto remarks sparks the fed to raise
rates at their next meeting, what is the best vehicle
to to use for profit
eurodollars are in an extremely tight channel. they are at 94.14.
sept 93.75 puts are less than $30.00 each. thats 39 basis pts
away from a big profit, if the fed decides to do what so many
believe they will not do. raise rates! this next meeting could
well be the one where they raise rates big time. is this
plausible? ANYthing is possible. our economy is steam-rolling
along, taking no prisoners. it is IN OUR INTEREST for rates
to rise. the pendulum has dwelt too long on the side of easy,
cheap credit. the arc has reached its' apex, the return journey
begun. be wise, de-paperize. could that be a new term?
gold dec 400.00 strike calls are less than $30.00 each.
for less than $180.00 you can have both of these options
and be positioned for the un-expected.
who called copper a good short last week?
cherokee!; ) limb-climber, and driver of the ssm for
the en-hancement of smoke-signalers through-out the
cosmos.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 17:33
Ken Tatum machf15@nicom.com>(machf15@nicom.com): - I'm new to the gold investing business. I decided to by in BGEIX as it follows the FT-SE Gold Mine Index. I bought it for technical reasons. FT-SE Index looks to be testing ( and holding above ) previous lows. Could this be a double bottom? I don't see much written on this board for Gold Mining Stocks and funds. Does anyone have any useful insight?
Mach - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 17:28
Pronosticator @Elliott Waves>(@Elliott Waves): - I looked at the charts of two major gold producers this morning, Barrick, and Newmont, and both appeared to still be in their fourth wave position. If I am correct in my count, they both have some to go on the downside in the fifth wave. This means that the XAU will not likely go anywhere until the majors complete the fifth wave. Any one else out there have a different wave count? I hope that I am wrong on this one.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 16:36
Speed @work>(@work): - George S. Cole: I agree with your logic on gold or stocks but not both and coincidentally was stopped out of my last non-metals stock today. It's cash and bullion and metals stocks for me for a while. What's your take on BT now?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 16:32
George S. Cole stocks and gold>(stocks and gold): - Dow off 35 at close. I suspect we will be going down a few hundred points by the end of next week, but nothing too dramtic YET. Final blowoff rally should begin later in July.
August gold up 80 cents today, XAU and HUI up modestly on modest volume. Stock action less constructive than yesterday. Looks we we may be bottoming, but no big upside moves likely in the near future.
Unless something big happens tomorrow BT will be a washout. Hope he makes it. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 16:14
George S. Cole Musings>(Musings): - Barney: Glad you find my posts useful!
Mr. M: You are right on target regarding Wall Street spin doctors. Their job is put the most bullish spin possible on all news so as to keep the bull alive and their employers profits high as long as possible. Heeding their advice has been very profitable for the past 2.5 years, but those who do not get out in time ( most investors ) will give back all their winnings and then some.
ALL: Just to make myself crystal clear, anyone who believes in Ralph Accompura's dream of a 10,000 Dow by next spring should not be in gold except for quick trades. As long as this paper bull continues gold will be flat at best down at worst. By the same token anybody who is bullish on gold should not be in any stocks except gold stocks on a long-term basis. If gold really is about to reverse its slump ( as I believe ) and start a major move north before long, stocks will be going lower, probably a lot lower. So take your choice folks -- stocks or gold. But not both. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 15:20
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Just Follow the Bouncing Ball: Dow down -73
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 15:16
Amnesty @thanks HAL>(@thanks HAL): - DJIA blasts through 7600!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 15:11
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - My Charts show previous FSAGX Low at $20.69, 40+ Market days ago,
Today looks like this level is holding and defines a double bottom.
This could be an Excellent entry point. I do not get a warm feeling
looking at FDPMX, however percentage wise they are about the same. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 15:09
panda @>(@): - Where's them dippies when you need them?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 14:32
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley): - Front ( 12:14 ) Yes , a couple of my metal funds did bounce back and most of the others held their own. I'm in heavy on junior miners and some exploration plays, but I'm waiting for gold to show it's true color before jumping on any seniors such as ABX,PDG,NEM. Some precious metal mutual funds are starting to look attractive,but they all have been beaten up.Until gold starts it's true rally and the markets correct , I'm sticking with what I have. I always watch the indexes to see where people are headed and have noticed that the TSE over the last week or so has had more declining stocks than advancing,even though it was up.Like many others on this site I'm waiting for the correction.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 14:29
NEWS @for U>(@for U): - news item excerpt ( reuters, London ) :
Dealers said there were few incentives to invest in gold and lift it away from current low prices while the threat of central bank sales loomed over the market.
``If we were to see some ( mine ) shafts being closed down in South Africa then that could change things,'' a dealer said.
However a less hopeful view came from SBC Warburg.
In a report, in which it downgraded its gold price forecasts through to 1999, its researchers estimated only about 32 tonnes of gold production would be lost through to the end of the century if the 1998 and 1999 price averaged $335.00.
Producers were more likely to step up forward selling to protect profit margins. An net additional 753 tonnes of metal would be delivered to the market by end 1999 through hedging, SBC Warburg estimated.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 14:24
auroelf thanks joe>(thanks joe): - joe d: Thanks for the American Century Precious Metals recommendation. I called for an information packet, and told the very helpful telephone salesman about the Kitco discussion group. Minimum orders are $2000, which avoids sales tax on delivered coins. They also sell for storage in Delaware if preferred.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 14:21
Amnesty @ what where when>(@ what where when): - Is this it B.T. Up a buck. Made my day.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 14:16
Amnesty @ what where when>(@ what where when): - Up a buck and bouncin off 340. I can kick back at last!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:42
vronsky YOU SEE CHINA WITH 20/10 VISION>(YOU SEE CHINA WITH 20/10 VISION): - REF:Gene ( @Reality-the China Card ) : IMVHO, Gene has fast-forwarded and sees the Sino-continent with more than perfect vision. Many international Western Economists have stated the China Economy will be the strongest in the world by 2010 -- bar none. In addtion to being a very practical people, they are one of the hardest working. And are those not the fundamental tenets which made our society great I foresee the growing Chinese discontent of hard-line Communisism dove-tailing in the near future with the entrepreneurial aspects of Capitalism. So convinced of this inevitability am I, that I would begin learning Manadrin... if I were a younger man. Interestinly, I have met literally many 1000s of Chinese in my business life - WITHOUT EXCEPTION THEY ALL SPOKE ENGLISH! And of the hundreds of thousands of Westerners whose path I have crossed, NARY A SOUL SPOKE ANY CHINESE -- not even Pinyin!! The Chinese are INDEED an industrious and practical people. We would all do well investment-wise to keep a sharp eagle-eye ( pardon the website-plug ) on what China is doing.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:39
joe d buy&sell>(buy&sell): - To all: With the chat about buying and selling physical holdings, I wanted to pass along the following: American Century Precious Metals charges 1% to buy, 1% to sell. They have all the popular stuff: maples, eagles, bars, junk bag silver, etc. You can have it shipped or stored. They are part of the American Century Mutual fund operation, formerly Benham Precious Metals. When you want to buy or sell, the agent will put you on hold and call a wholesaler for a current spot price on the item involved, add 1% to that, and call it done. If you set up a money market account with the mutual fund side of the house, the funds can move from/to it very easily - and quickly! I've found it the cleanest, cheapest way to buy and sell physicals. They can be reached at 1-800-447-4653. NOTE: I DO NOT work for this organization.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:26
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Mike Sheller: What is the political future of Shanghi? Are they free forever or under a similiar death watch?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:25
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Mike Sheller: What is the political future of Shanghi? Are they free forever or under a similiar death watch?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:23
Mike Sheller after almuerzo>(after almuerzo): - GENE: Agree with everything you said re China, except leave it open for Shanghai to become THE finance center of the Pacific Rim in the years to come.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:21
vronsky 20 REASONS TO SELL STOCKS NOW (June 23, 1997)>(20 REASONS TO SELL STOCKS NOW (June 23, 1997)): - Mega-Bear gives 20 advance signals calling for total liquidation of stocks - and taking refuge in gold & silver coins. See Steve Puetz Letter. Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 13:09
EB NEITHER WILL FLY>(NEITHER WILL FLY): - Steve 5:18 Thanks for clarifying to the group. I am aware of the difference. I've even eaten Emu burgers...tastes like chicken - NOT.
Back to my point - NEITHER WILL FLY! OR
as Mike Myers ( Wayne's World ) would say...Yeah right, and pigs will fly outta my butt!
AWAY!
EB
but i still like the bitter - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:42
BARNEY @Minnesota>(@Minnesota): - George S. Cole: Your comments to my post, as well as all your posts
are appreciated very much. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:42
Crystal Ball Temporary XAU Bear>(Temporary XAU Bear): - Personal opinion, but I think the XAU is a sell here, will probably crumble with the rest of the stocks. :- (
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:41
Gene @Reality-the China Card>(@Reality-the China Card): - Philosophically, in the long run, Hong Kong will not become part of China; China will become part of Hong Kong. The Chinese will come to the conclusion that Chairman Mao wrote the Bible and that he invented Capitalism. The Chinese are the most practical people on earth and they will support the dollar only if they feel that they can get more than they can lose from the deal. In the end, if US debt continues to increase, they must buy gold. They must buy gold because they are too practical not to buy gold.
The real revolution in finances will come when a vitalized China takes on the mantle of Hong Kong. Imagine a country the size of China with the economics of Hong Kong. China will be a Capitalist economy; they will not folow the socialist road; the socialist road is not practical; the Chinese look around the world and they see socialism failing everywhere; they will not shortly grant democratic liberties; they will opt for a maximum 15% tax rate; they will call it all communism; then let's see how well the western democracies can compete with the Chinese.
We must change or they will be the # 1 economic power in the world. Will we change? - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:39
DJ Go P&P!>(Go P&P!): - Panda - Joined you in SWC today. The more I learn about Platinum and Palladium, the more I like them. Cheers.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:34
Savage HK?>(HK?): - MILHOUSE: Are you really in Hong Kong?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:25
Poorboys Canada@God save the Queen>(Canada@God save the Queen): - Opinion-technical update Dow,SP= slightly bullish Gold = slightly Bullish XAU = slightly Bullish Dollar slightly bearish. 358 gold & 112 xau is a great place for happy bears to short otherwise this could be a real sleeper.Have a happy weekend .The Queen Is here.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:25
Mr. M (?): -
o Russia barely able to inject its industrial metals into the market.
o Japan threatens to sell US bonds; China might already be doing so.
o OPEC threatens to drive up price of oil.
A myopic wallstreet is blind to international issues unless it can be hyped as providing cheep labor resulting in lower inflation. The bears will be very angry with Goldilocks and will exhibit no mercy in extracting every ounce of their stolen porridge.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:14
Front TO: M.GRAVES>(TO: M.GRAVES): -
Sorry...Thumbs too quick....
Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:58
M.Graves ( @ Valley ) :
TSE gold & precious metal index up 1.12%
Mr. Graves, Just out of curiosity, did any of your Metals funds gain? Mine lost even though the TSE was up. How was yours?
TTFN - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:14
vronsky The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)>(The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)): - Internationally acclaimed Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:12
Front TO: M.GRAVES>(TO: M.GRAVES): -
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 12:00
Savage belly ache>(belly ache): - WW re your 7:09 It's like eating ice cream...the Japanese have simply had too much of a good thing; trouble is, while they were enjoying themselves, they bought the factory. Now, what to do with all that ice cream......
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:56
ross ross@canada>(ross@canada): - SCOTIAMcLEOD put out a buy recommendation on gold this morning
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:45
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Steve*Perth: don't recall pre junk mail.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:32
George s. Cole gold bottom?>(gold bottom?): - I view recent gold stock action as constructive, but far from decisive. Like the fact that XAU and HUI are acting relatively well considering the pressure on bullion ( btw, August gold was up 60 cents a few minutes ago ) . But a few days action does not a trend make. IF THIS POSITIVE DIVERGENCE PERSISTS until the end of the month, the odds of a strong July rally will grow exponentially.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:21
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Good question: Where IS the ASIAN support for GOLD
Is Hashimoto stringing us a line
Fundy: I collect my email when I get around to it.
An aside: I have discovered my purpose in life....emptying my letterbox ( snailmail ) of junk mail! Do you remember pre-junk mail? - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:21
2weeks hysterical_delirious>(hysterical_delirious): - Does anyone know of current research on psychological effects of dropping big wampum in precious metals? I feel sort of faint. George, you too, man? Hey, make all the typos you want, amigo. I enjoy your comments.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:21
2weeks hysterical_delirious>(hysterical_delirious): - Does anyone know of current research on psychological effects of dropping big wampum in precious metals? I feel sort of faint. George, you too, man? Hey, make all the typos you want, amigo. I enjoy you comments.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:15
George S. Cole typos>(typos): - Amazed: Thanks for spotting the typos! Should have read sharpest drop since 1990.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:12
Amazed Forwardviewing>(Forwardviewing): - sharpest drop since 1999 Amazing series of typos Mr. Cole. Message clear though. Gold up Stocks down.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:08
George S. Cole stock market outlook>(stock market outlook): - Barney: Frankly I am agnostic on the question of whether or not a crash is in store this fall, but am quite certain that we will see a drop of at least 20% once market peaks. This could well take some time to play out. In fact my preferred scenario is for the market to peak in August and sell off 20-30% by early 1998. of course this makes me an optimist compared with Steve Puetz's dire predictions.
Market is overvalued by every measure except P/E ratios. And never forget that earnings forecasts are subject to revision as are interest rate forecasts. If people remain confident that 1998 earnings will come in strong and interest rates will remain relatively low, market may not drop more than 20%. But if people start to revise their interest rate and earnings forecasts, equities could drop much more than this.
Another possible scenario -- economy weakens, earnings forecasts come down, but so do interest rates. Result -- defensive stocks hold up well, but cyclicals get smashed. Still another -- economy strengthens, Fed tightens, cyclicals do well for a while as financials get smashed, then everything goes south.
And don't ignore political trends here and abroad. The complete domination of both parties by Fortune 500/Wall Street and public acquiescence in this has been a key factor behind the stock's market's surge over the last few years. If any of this starts to change for the worse, market would be very vulnerable.
Technically, the market almost certainly will experience the sharpest drop since 1999 after it peaks this summer. But how severe this drop will be ( 20% 30% 40% ) very uncertain as is the length of the decline ( crash or more traditional bear market ) .
BTW, this bull market has been running over 2.5 years now. If you look at all the bull moves between 1982 and 1994, none has lasted much longer than this. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 11:01
2weeks Schippi_Schippi_Schippi!>(Schippi_Schippi_Schippi!): - That's a great FDPMX/FSAGX chart, very nice, you provide at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif
Just one problem - It's going in the wrong direction!!!
Make it go UP! NOT DOWN! UP UP UP UP UP UP!!!! Any questions!?!?!? - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:56
Ron Shilly-shallying on Hong Kong. Frogmen Everywhere.>(Shilly-shallying on Hong Kong. Frogmen Everywhere.): - As Clinton and Blair reverse their earlier decision to boycott the provisional legislature's swearing in ceremony ( a thug's legislature ) on July 1, their appalling hypocrisy can only serve to send chills through the pro-democracy ranks in Hong Kong, encourage Beijing to renege on its earlier promise to keep its tentacles off Hong Kong, and lull goldbugs into believing Hong Kong itself is a non-issue. My prediction: Representatives Emily Lau and Martin Lee will be confined to a re-education slave camp -- a logai -- within a year, democracy and free speech will be thoroughly crushed, and every aspect of life in Hong Kong will be micro-managed from Beijing. Never trust a dragon. http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/26/z0009_452.html.
Disclaimer: Risk of loss in futures markets is substantial. Neither take nor give advice. Use your own head. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:52
RJ $325 a half dozen times before $400 once>($325 a half dozen times before $400 once): - Will we see $335 today? Where is the asian support for gold? Oh, woe.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:39
Reify @AMAZING>(@AMAZING): - Hey y'all,
We got us an interesting ball game, with gold going down and XAU & HUI going the other way. George S. said this is the way it should be, now let's watch the fun and developments. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:37
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - XAU and Gold up ... Someone was listening YES GO !!!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:37
Lan Man to John@looking>(to John@looking): - Almost forgot the plug: The Silver & Gold Report can be reached at 561-627-3300 for subscription info, they have an automatic monthly billing for $8.00/mo.
Editor is James DiGeorgia and the Editor Emeritus is Dan Rosenthal.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:26
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Sorry for my earlier post, but its a frustrating business eh!
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:25
BARNEY @Minnesota>(@Minnesota): - Last post the URL was typed wrong.
Should have been: http://fool.yahoo.com/fool/workshop.html - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:23
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com): - BARNEY,
There seems to be a problem with the URL you just posted. Please check it and post again - I'm very interested to read the article you mention.
Thanks
Paul
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:20
BARNEY @Minnesota>(@Minnesota): - Is the market overvalued? Are we in for another 1987 crash?
Click on-- http://fool.yahoo.com.fool.workshop.html
George S. Cole: I would appreciate your comments on this article. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:19
Milhouse sas@hk.gin.net>(sas@hk.gin.net): -
Scott,
the current action in gold could be very constructive. If gold doesn't bottom now ( within the next few days ) , it probably won't bottom until Q1 1998. Let's hope it bottoms now !
Note - according to Martin Armstrong, gold needs to hold 334 on a monthly closing basis in 1997 otherwise new lows are likely.
Goodnight from HK, Milhouse - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:17
Lan Man John@looking.for.cheapest.gold.coins>(John@looking.for.cheapest.gold.coins): - I purchased from Calif. Numismatics yesterday and premium was 4.2%
From the May 1997 listing by the Silver & Gold Report:
Calif. Numismatic Investments...CA...800-225-7531...Recorded Quote Line 310-671-6092
F.J. Vollmer & Co...IL...800-447-8368
Gaithersburg Coin Exchange...MD...800-638-4104
Jefferson Financial...LA...800-877-8847
Blanchard & Co...LA...800-880-4653
Mike Fuljenz Universal Coin...TX...800-459-2646
Camino Coin...800-348-8001, in CA 800-348-3001
Benham Certified Metals...CA...800-447-4653...HI...415-965-4275
Bill Youngerman...FL...800-327-5010...in FL...561-368-7707
Dallas Gold & Silver...TX...800-527-5307...in TX...214-484-3362
Dillion Gage...TX...800-537-2583
National Gold Exchange...FL...813-969-4111
Rare Coins of New Hampshire...NH...800-225-7264
Sam Sloat...CT...800-243-5670
Tangible Investments of Amer...CA...800-890-1394
Wilmington Trust Co...DE...800-223-1080
All of the above were ranked fair or better in pricing. The dealers they advise to stay away from include:
Eastern Numismatics...Garden City, NY
Eagles Coin Shop...Indianapolis, IN
Numismatics International...Plainview, NY
Panda America... Torrance, CA
Hope this helps, have only dealt with CNI, Universal Coin and Camino, all provide great service and quotes over the phone. There are many other dealers out there, some are either ranked low due to pricing or refused to quote over the phone or were just not included in the survey.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 10:03
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - When are all those wankers going to stop selling gold $%^$%^%^%#^
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:58
George S. Cole 1987>(1987): - Amazed: Obviously I meant August 1987. Am sure most Kitcoites recognized this as a typo.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:55
George S. Cole Hong Kong and Taiwan>(Hong Kong and Taiwan): - Milhouse: As usual your post this morning on why the trade deficit matters was right on the money!
Expectations of problems in Hong Kong following its return to China probably are exaggerated -- at least for the near-term. Remember China also wants to persuade Taiwan to voluntarily rejoin the Fatherland. Towards this end, they can be expected to scrupulously observe their agreement with the British re: Hong Kong governance. Screwing up Hong Kong will doom any chance of regaining Taiwan for many years to come. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:55
Amazed Confused>(Confused): - George S Cole: What happened after August 1997?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:52
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Steve@Perth: Thanks for your lateral response . I hope you don't regret your decision to post a non-commercial e-mail address here.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:46
George s. Cole August Top?>(August Top?): - ALL:
There are many technical signals that the market will make a final blowoff top this August around Dow 8500. Last August blowoff top was in 1997 -- we all know what followed. Check out the charts and commentary at:
http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/fiendbea/guestcom.htm - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:33
kappy alanka@iafrica.com>(alanka@iafrica.com): - It is time to buy South African gold shares. At these prices the
shares are cheap. Gold is going to wake up one morning and then you
will see $450-00 in no time
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:12
BARNEY @Minnesota>(@Minnesota): - JMA: I buy my gold coins from F.J.Vollmer Co, Bloomington, Illinois.
When gold was $342.00, They were selling at $356.25 ( for 10 0z. lot )
This included shipping and INS.etc.. If buying less than 10 oz. the cost $358.00 and you pay the shipping costs. Their buy back price is $353.25.
Phone# 1-800-447-8368. Internet vollmer@fjvollmer.com - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:09
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - Looks like some life in gold and silver--I still think we should call a priest to give last rites just in case. The following are some pretty good sports quotes which make me irritable that these guys are living so much more affluently than I find myself living--probably they have not been introduced to the wonderful world of commodities and futures trading and still have their ill gotten gains.
You guys line up alphabetically by height.
- Bill Peterson, a Florida State football coach
You guys pair up in groups of three, then line up in a circle.
- Bill Peterson, a Florida State football coach
I play football. I'm not trying to be a professor. The tests
don't seem to make sense to me, measuring your brain on stuff I
haven't been through in school.
-Clemson recruit Ray Forsythe, who was ineligible as a freshman
because of academic requirements
Why would anyone expect him to come out smarter? He went to
prison for three years, not Princeton.
-Boxing promoter Dan Duva on Mike Tyson hooking up again
with promoter Don King
That's so when I forget how to spell my name, I can still
find my #%@# clothes.
- Stu Grimson, Chicago Blackhawks left wing, explaining why he
keeps a color photo of himself above his locker
I can't really remember the names of the clubs that we went to.
- Shaquille O'Neal on whether he had visited the Parthenon
during his visit to Greece
I'm going to graduate on time, no matter how long it takes.
-Senior basketball player at the University of Pittsburgh
Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a
guy like Norman Einstein.
- Football commentator and former player Joe Theismann - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 09:03
panda @>(@): - Bonds could be interesting today...
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:58
Bob A PL/PA>(PL/PA): - Time to buy Stillwater, SWC formerly PGMS.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:49
Don dprys@alliance.net>(dprys@alliance.net): - EB: When we lived in Solvang and the ground started rumbling at 6:30 in the morning it always gave us concern that another earthquake was emminent till we realised it was just another minute-man missile being shot off at Vandenberg. Your right, the evening shots were always the most spectacular especially as the second stage rocket separated.
Not knowing when this market will ever move, I just keep buying option insurance about 6 months out. It will take off one of these days, right?: ) - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:43
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - I heard on CNBC that there was a mystery seller yesterday of 10 year US govt. notes..mmmmmm...have the foreignors begun to unload
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:41
Mike Sheller responding to Impure thoughts>(responding to Impure thoughts): - WW: The buying of our debt part of the trade deficit equation is an aberration of profligate, uncontrolled government ( in this case the US ) . I can't speak for RJ, but that is not what I had in mind as part of the natural market dynamics of international trade accounts. You have just proven that it is invariably state interference and incompetence ( which would be criminal if applied to individuals and private entities ) which brings about distortions of natural law and free market processes. In the end, the disparities in human intelligence, discipline, and motivation will insure that no matter what perfect or imperfect system is in place, there will be fluctuations in the fortunes of everyone from time to time. It is the sanctimony of a muddled state telling me what reality truly is that I object to. The results are inevitably worse.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:39
panda @BID/ASK>(@BID/ASK): - JMA -- Don't forget the spread ( bid/ask ) as well as the comm. An 1/8 on a 100 share lot equals $12.50 + comm. both ways.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:39
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - JMA- the guy selling the coins has to make a little bit. The US government when they sell gold & silver coins charges a premium. The going rate retail is about 5-6% premium
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:38
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport): - In Texas, gold bullion coins, eagles, mapleleafs etc, generally have a
commission of 5% over spot. I just bought a few monday and this was the case.BTW there is no state or local taxes on coin purchases of over
$1000 in Texas. I dont know about other states. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:25
John @looking.for.cheapest.gold.coins>(@looking.for.cheapest.gold.coins): - Where can you buy American Eagles and Krugerrands? and where is there the less mark up?
Thank you - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:24
bw Good rule>(Good rule): - Swiss banks have been given a black eye by our free press recently. However an institution older than this country must know something. The first rule of the swiss banker: Never lend money to a borrower who needs the loan to pay interest on a former loan.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 08:07
JMA @Minnesota>(@Minnesota): - How come the cost to buy gold coins is $20 per coin? This high commission
seems to me to reduce demand. For Joe public stocks have a much lower commissions? I was going to by some coins but the commission held me back. What is the best way for someone to buy gold? - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 07:26
Milhouse Trade Deficit, No Problem ?>(Trade Deficit, No Problem ?): -
RJ, re your 00:43 post in which you asserted that a trade deficit was not a problem or doesn't really exist.
What you appear to be saying is that the difference between the supply into the US and the supply out of the US is made up of dollars, therefore no deficit exists. However, the problem exists because the dollars must come from somewhere.
A dollar used by a US entity to purchase a US made product remains in the US and is therefore available for investment inside the US ( investment in plant, purchase of other products, payment of wages ) . Dollars used to fill in the gap between imports and exports are not. Therefore, a trade deficit financed with existing money will eventually lead to higher interest rates in the deficit country ( to increase the price of its currency relative to goods ) and economic contraction. Depending on the size of the deficit it would also likely result in a reduction in the value of the deficit country's currency. In this situation the imbalance would hence self correct and the deficit would be short lived.
However, the above does not represent the current scenario. What we now have, and have had for some time, is a trade deficit which is being financed by new money, that is, money created from debt monetisation. Also, a large portion of the money used to finance the deficit has been taken out of circulation ( made in to foreign currency reserves in the surplus countries ) or used to purchase US Govt debt. This has led to the following :
1. China and Japan now have massive economic and political leverage over the US. Japan may be reluctant to use this leverage due to their need for US military support. China will not be ( in fact, China may have already used this leverage re MFN )
2. A substantial depreciation of the US dollar over the last decade against the currencies of the surplus nations ( although not as great as would have occurred if the US dollar were not the reserve currency of choice )
3. A US money supply which has, in recent years, increased at a far greater rate than US GDP.
The actions which have been taken to create the perception that a large trade deficit doesn't really exist and/or is not a problem will contribute to the on-going reduction in America's economic importance and eventually ( within 5 years ) to a financial crisis. Being an Australian living in Hong Kong I'm not at all concerned about the US trade deficit. In fact, I'll probably benefit from it because the US dollars which continue to flood the world as a result of the trade deficit will add substantial value to my gold investments. However, US citizens should be gravely concerned. The laws of supply and demand have been conned in the short term only.
Regards, Milhouse - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 07:25
Donald 105636.2252@Compuserve.com>(105636.2252@Compuserve.com): - WW...The initial problem is that the overextended consumer needs dollars to pay his dollar denominated debt. He has to sell his Krugerand to get the dollars. That is where we are now.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 07:09
WW @New England>(@New England): - Mike Sheller and RJ make good points about deficits IE everyone is benefiting ie we receive the goods they receive the money and buy our debt. The problem with this now ( unlike the past ) is twofold 1 ) They are having to buy our debt at an unsustainable rate ie they own 34% of o/s mktable Treasuries versus only 5% a few years ago.2 ) The US consumer is in the worst debt situation ( worse than '29 ) in history because of his/her purchases. Because of this situation the purchasing will slow down and so will the amount of money flowing overseas. When the customer starts to buy less the seller has less money to buy our debt thus rates rise in US further worsening the economic situation. The economic situation also worsens overseas ( less exports to US ) and as the dollar weakens they need to repatriate money for work at home/ also may need a new reserve currency std because of precarious fate of over owned dollar/ANS GOLD!
Mike and RJ are right if the overextended consumer and proliferation of dollar supply mean nothing and there is never another recession in the US.
There it is/nuf said. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 07:07
panda @short.covering?>(@short.covering?): - Gold options expiration;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/26/z0009_377.html - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 07:03
panda @apocalypse.now!>(@apocalypse.now!): - Albania, after the collapse....
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/26/z0009_313.html - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 06:33
Mike Sheller WW Dot Com>(WW Dot Com): - WW: re your Wed 20:51 ) Your Chinese contact is deluded. He is, after all, a member of the Chinese Communist party in good standing. However, you have kindly brought us a clear picture of the muddled mixed premise thinking of most modern state functionaries. I'll stick with the kids for my assessment as to where China is heading. It may take a painfully long while, but the handwriting is on the great wall for socialists in China as well as Europe. Doubtless, like undulating price patterns and rivers, there will be retracements along the way, but the trend is to eclectic societies with diminished state control. Information technology will lead the way, as it has always done. This forum is one tiny, but important example. I agree that Russia may very well go back to official collectivism. They are a ruined people and there is no telling what they will do in their social desperation. They were always a stiff-necked bunch. As it says in the bible, The dog returns to his vomit. If the US sinks, China has no market and the regeneration is cut short. Chinese are a lot more practical than the Russians. RJ's 00:43 demonstrates the fallacy of a trade deficit in a free market context. As long as there is mutual benefit, everyone benefits. The success of a trade, and its value, can only be judged by the traders themselves.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 06:11
Jack $139 gold WOW>($139 gold WOW): -
Steve in ( Perth- Western Austrialia ) : It's really the other side of the moon, when compared with some of the high quotes that I seen thrown around.
It seems that the service making the prediction of 33% interest rates hadn't considered the inflation preminum along with the $139 gold price, or did they feel that the 33% rate would knock the price down from their short lived $600 price prediction?
My belief is a rock bottom $600 price, followed by a slow rise to about ____, depending on how well they -the world CB's- make the transition to gold backed currencies. I cannot believe that platinum will be used to back currencies as there simply isn't enough available.
It was Andy Smith, the Merill Lynch guys twin brother; who spoke about silvers removal as a currency base, and that ain't saying much for either of them.
Now a silver backed currency at about $50 per ounce would be OK, even though it's ( it was ) used widely in manufacturing. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 05:55
Donald 105636.2252@Compuserve.com>(105636.2252@Compuserve.com): - Lan Man, Jack, Steve Puetz: US currency circulating outside the US. FRB figures I have are December, 1994. I don't think they have better figures yet. $100 dollar bills = $166.1 Billion, $50 bills = 22.4B, $20 = 45.1B. That is a total of $233.6 Billion. Plus the counterfeit bills. Mostly in Eastern Europe. As problems in local currencies have worsened the total is certainly higher now.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 05:33
George s. Cole stocks and commodities>(stocks and commodities): - STRADMASTER: I am not predicting the narcotics cartels will go public. But this society is so corrupt that I wouldn't rule anything out. Peddling cocaine and heroin no worse than getting millions hooked on tobacco. 30 years ago who would have thought that gambling ( or gaming as it is now called ) would be legalized and sweeping the nation. Aside from the fact that is illegal, peddling narcotics fits all of Warren Buffett's criteria for a great long-term investment.
ALL: The recent news that Saudi Arabia and Iran will work together to hike oil prices again demonstates that stock investors are much more strategically oriented than commodity players. Oil stocks have been surging for many months even as oil prices dropped back under $20. Now we know why.
Gold is no different. In a genuine move, the stocks lead and the commodity follows with varying time lags. If the commodity consistently moves ahead of the stocks, time to run for cover. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 05:30
Jack Nothings Certain, but there could be a change of heart >(Nothings Certain, but there could be a change of heart ): -
George W. Loh; your ( 21:12 ) makes some real good points. I believe that if Japan made poorly timed sales of US Treasuries; that the loses they had on Rockefeller Center, Pebble Beach ect., would seem miniscule; especially when compared to those that would be suffered by both countries, as a result of such muted sales.
What we must consider; is that just 1 billion dollars at todays gold price can buy about 2.9 million ounces of gold. For Japan 20 billion dollars in reserves is a drop in the bucket, even without selling US Treasuries. Actually $20 billion can buy 3/4 of new annual production. While this is not a prediction, it's the non evil way to go. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 05:18
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - MADOG: In Australia we lend out a minimum of A$20,001 for mutual funds, against A$14,000 deposited in various mutual funds. ie. MORE than the deposit security. We have done for years. Bankers Trust does the finance, amongst others. For DIRECT individual shares, the debt to equity ration is more conservative. Investors are aware they can lose their shirts, but at least this way, they don't lose their house!!
EB: In case you do not know, an Emu is a large native bird very similar to an Ostrich. Not E.M.U.!! - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 04:32
YELLOW PERIL @high C,s>(@high C,s): - Dare to enter my kingdom from which you will never escape. Without even
a whisper you try to leave from where you came. Beware he who throw scorn
at underdog. The moon will soon be reborn. Take what you can now and leave the rest for the feast of the dragon. Your lair is now muddy and
damp. Take solace that you are welcome to remain. Dare not question
why for you will indeed be rewarded.
Pray that you have taken the right path. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 04:05
EB Cherokee and speaking of oil cans>(Cherokee and speaking of oil cans): - Are you seeing again? Buy SEP Crude 7/7 hold it ten days or so and your trade ( from '83 ) will be correct 91.7% or so. Hmmmm.
By the way, did you see that minuteman the other night from the Seven Sisters? Launched at VAFB it was said to have been seen more than 800 miles with reports that people saw it as far away as Utah. It was one of the best launches I have seen... and these eyes have seen.
AWAY!
EB
trading futures is risky, yada, yada, yada, play with matches and get burned blah, blah, blah. I am serious. I think. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 03:57
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com): - Back on Kitco - things haven't changed much. I find reading Kitco 1 week
at a time alot different then reading it hourly. It seems like everyone
has become pretty taken with the new handle in town - RJ.
RJ: could you point me to the day you posted your insights on the Tiger
fund's corner on Palladium and their exit strategy with the Japanese.
Also, I've searched the month of june looking for your insight into the
Russian's PL stockpiles being at zero! I've found your claim for 500-600
million dollars and another claim for a 2 year stockpile, but I couldn't
find the 0 post.
I guess I'm just an info junkie about PL/PA these days - I wouldn't want
to miss anything.
The vacation was nice, the golf was top shelf. If anyone saw the movie
'Tin Cup' - it was filmed at Tubac, a really wonderful course.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 03:49
EMU BITTER That drink will never fly>(That drink will never fly): - I always keep a couple of OIL CANS of Fosters Bitter in the fridge, though, albeit the watered down US version.
AWAY!
EMU BITTER
it has a ring to it... - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 03:44
EB THIS IS GREAT STUFF>(THIS IS GREAT STUFF): - RJ-1:07 I do not know BT. Remember I am an FNG much like yourself. I made comments in play and to provoke a response. And a BONANZA I got. ( In case anyone did not read RJ's 1:34 it is worth reading four or five more times ) . He could not be more BLUNT. TAKE HEED. Russkie will not deliver. TO GOLD... I still like that MOTHER OF ALL WEDGES shaping up. Perhaps it won't play out for a little while though...but when it does...SPROOOOOOOOOOOOIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGG!!!
And thanks for the eloquent poetry. You do have a way with that language thing.
48 hours Oh! I gotta get my haircut in 48 hours. thanks for the reminder.
And I can't pick a horse to save my horses ASS.
AWAY!
EB
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 03:43
Strad Master HUH?@Stunned.com>(HUH?@Stunned.com): - GEORGE S. COLE: Regarding your Jun 25 16:50 post ( narcotics going public ) : With all DUE respect, I can't believe you actually believe what you wrote. I suspect that something was inadvertently left out of your post that you intended to include - perhaps a wink or some other indication of tongue-firmly-in-cheek. Before I engage you in a moral debate or attempt to address what you posted I feel you certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps you'd care to clarify. Many thanks.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 03:26
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Picked this up from the bottom link of
Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin
On Gold Eagle
There is three parts to their sample letter and all are a good read:
http://www.strategicinvestment.com/sample.html
http://www.strategicinvestment.com/sample2.html
http://www.strategicinvestment.com/sample3.html
Quoted from the Strategic Investment Letter in sample 2:
Our prediction: Gold will rise slowly, then more quickly, reaching $1,000 per ounce before the end of this century.
And also in sample 3:
A massive Japanese sell-off of Treasury bonds will blindside Americans with a double whammy of plummeting stock market prices and soaring interest rates. We're going to be hit in our pocketbooks, our portfolios, our real estate…everywhere.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 03:23
Auric @home>(@home): -
Gunrunner @ 09:20-Apocalypse Now-great movie. The
colonel's name was Bill Kilgore. To paraphrase,If
I say it's safe to buy gold son, it's safe to buy
gold! - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 02:54
RJ Prognostication>(Prognostication): - Re yours: EB @ 03:09
RJ....can you tell me who will win the third race at Los Alamitos Sunday?
To which:
No, I can’t pick the winner, but I can pick the nine that won’t.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 02:40
MADOG credit bubble -gum>(credit bubble -gum): - Hi all. My better half is branch manager for one of the Big5 banks up here in Canada. We usually talk shop in the evening and this was our discussion last night. Bla bla bla client wants 50,000 for mutual fund purchase-Yada yada yada- she needs security befor she can ok the loan
bla bla bla send application off to Investments department-yada yada yada- they ok loan with 50.000 mutual funds he presently has as security
bla bla bla yada yada yada HOLD ON ----Says ME- honey, back up a few Yadas- 50,000 loan for mutual funds backed by 50,000 in other mutual funds You herd me right gentlemen. In the imortal words of Mister Ripley................
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 02:26
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - If you believe kitco quotes, the difference between buyers and sellers on the gold spot is only 20c. We are going to get a rally or drop in next 1/2 hour. Lets see?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 02:17
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold had a good rally in both America and Asia Yesturday. Gold sold off in last few hours in America before close giving the illusion of a down trend for the guestimates. But today gold up again in Asia and I expect the same in America tonight ( tomorrow ) .
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 02:16
RJ Alas, Scott>(Alas, Scott): - Either Gold will break $340 tomorrow, or it will break all to pieces.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 02:10
RJ Correction>(Correction): - Regarding:
Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 00:16
Gold up in July ( @veteran wealth builder ) :
RJ @ The ramblings of a lunatic.
Sir......Inspired ramblings of a lunatic, if you please.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:54
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - I see gold breaking 340 again tomorrow
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:53
RJ Gimmie a break! Its my first Limerick!>(Gimmie a break! Its my first Limerick!): - A Kitco sage of high station
Would say, in place of salutation:
With a wink of one eye, then two
Advise all to eschew
The slightest hint of all obfuscation.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:46
RJ Oh yeah.....>(Oh yeah.....): - Platinum supplies will fall short of demand by 360K + ounces. This according to CPM numbers which are conservative at best. Not included in the 360K is 81K oz borrowed by the US mint from US strategic stockpiles, which are required by law to be replaced. They must replace the metal, no IOUs here, the Department of Defense is not Social Security. Now to quote a Kitco Sage:
AWAY
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:38
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - The handover of Hong Kong is only days away now and I'm still having lots of trouble believing that we'll see a smooth transition. I am certain that we will see demonstrations in Hong Kong after June 30. At least one democracy group has already announced its intentions in this regard -- if for no other reason than testing Beijing's patience. I am much less certain about Beijing's reaction to such a test. However, IMO there is little reason to believe that a ruthless totalitarian regime, used to demanding -- and receiving -- total obedience from its subjects these last 50 years will react patiently or benignly to a challenge from home-grown human rights groups. It can barely do so when dealing with western governments. Anyway, here's a interesting page that has the survey results and analysis of the Hong Kong Transition Project's numerous polls taken over the last few years: http://www.hkbu.edu.hk/~hktp/lathktp.html. It's a little slow loading, and is rather long, but it's well worth reading if you're trying to puzzle out the golden implications of this momentous event.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:38
RJ Enough already!>(Enough already!): - Hashimoto Schmashimoto - it had to be said.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:34
RJ Self Important Semi-Demi-God>(Self Important Semi-Demi-God): - Steve ( Perth - Western Australia ) @ 20:32.
I disagree with most of your assertions, but I love the confidence with which you assert.
PS
The Russians have no more Platinum. It has all been sold or stolen. Received at the COMEX last year: Platinum bars with pictures of the Czar stamped in them. 80 year old platinum, the proverbial bottom of the barrel. Any platinum left underground will, for the most part, continue its antediluvian slumber. The mining infrastructure in Russia is broken and, as long as ex-communists are being elected by popular vote, will not be resurrected by infusions of
western $.
Speaking of PGMs, Tiger will strike a deal with the Russians and buy it all. Every last ounce. They have accumulated more than 2.25 million ounces of which nary an ounce was sold at 250, 240, 230, 220, 210, or 200. A 100 million dollar mistake? I think not. Ask yourselves why representatives from Tiger were talking to the Japanese? Were they looking to bail out of too expensive palladium, or were they negotiating long term palladium contracts? I first hinted at this a couple weeks ago, but no one picked up the ball and ran with it. Something to think about, or more Unperiphrastic Bombastiloquence?
PS - EB
I too
As well as you
will never pursue
But continue to do
as you do too
Always eschew
And take a vacation
From all obfuscation.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:32
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Francois....
http://quote.yahoo.com/quotes?symbols=^XAU+EN.TO+GGO.TO+FN.TO+NGC+GRE.TO+BVN+FCXa+AGE.TO+PGMS+GLD&detailed=f&options=t - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:31
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Francois.... The below URL provides percentage change,
info abd CHARTS for FSAGX top ten. I think it will
answer most of your questions. Good Luck! - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:22
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Chart.
Ten market days ( seven hours / prices per day )
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 01:07
RJ HUH?>(HUH?): - EB @ 19:13 regarding yours:
This leads me to another Hypothesis...if I may. Think of this:
DR. JECKYL = MR. HYDE
BT = RJ I haven't figured out which person relates to the other. RJ lives vicariously through BT -
or vice-versa. And he's having a blast too! NO?
Who is this BT fellow and why has he created such a stir? I looked back over the last couple weeks and found nothing groundbreaking. I must have missed something. Most of his remarks are filled with self importance and hints of knowledge that others do not have. Oh, I guess I do see some similarities.
Someone, please tell me what this guttersnipe is all about. I’m counting down too, 48 hours to go..... 48 hours to go for what?
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 00:56
François @dumboville>(@dumboville): - Two questions from a novice:
( a ) what is the explanation for the drop in gold spot price, between 2 and 2:30 PM ( New York Time/Trade ) , two days in a row? Manipulation by shorts? by CBs?
( b ) I understand yesterday's drop in Fidelity FDPMX in view of their heavy S.A. holdings. Is the drop in FSAGX ( despite the significant rise in the XAU ) due to an attempt by the FSAGX Fund manager to avoid the large gold mines which belong to the SP500? If so, would this prevent a large drop in FSAGX when the general stock maret crashes and when Index funds have to sell off massively, including the major gold mines?
Thank you for your help.
Françcois
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 00:52
RJ Stuff>(Stuff): - Received from my sister: actual quotes from Federal employee performance evaluations.
Since my last report, he has reached rock bottom and has started to dig.
His men would follow him anywhere, but only out of morbid curiosity.
I would not allow this employee to breed.
This employee is really not so much of a has-been, but more of a definitely won't be.
Works well when under constant supervision and cornered like a rat in a trap.
When she opens her mouth, it seems that this is only to change whichever foot was previously in there.
He would be out of his depth in a parking lot puddle.
This young lady has delusions of adequacy.
She sets low personal standards and then consistently fails to achieve them.
This employee should go far - and the sooner he starts, the better.
This employee is depriving a village somewhere of an idiot.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 00:43
RJ Another Gauntlet>(Another Gauntlet): - I found your 18:01 very well reasoned and well written. Threat of gold sales from ECBs has and will continue to weigh heavily on gold. I have serious doubts, though, as to whether there will ever be a common European Currency. The EC is viewed by many as a panacea that will solve all ills and create an enormous trading block among member nations, the very same nations that have been unable to get along in any century of the last ten. Why a country would give up any measure of self control over their own currency is beyond me. Maggie Thatcher said she would never agree to ceding British sovereignty by integrating British currency in the EC. That spelled the end of Maggie’s courageous career, but I salute her.
I do question some of your conclusions and, dare I say, the conclusions drawn by George Soros. The dollar is not unsound at any price. If the US could freeze spending, ( a very big if ) with vast new markets becoming available, we could grow out of our debt in 15 - 20 years. Most home mortgages run for thirty years, do we call every homeowner bankrupt? As I have said many times, the rest of the world cannot prosper without the US.
As for the trade deficit, this is a nonexistent puff of smoke invented by bean counters so they have something more to count. There is no such thing as a trade deficit. For every dollar we spend abroad, we receive a dollars worth of goods, a mutually beneficial transaction, freely entered into by both parties. If anything, the so called ‘trade deficit’ is a testimony to the importance of American markets to all who sell here. The more of our dollars they take, the more vested they are in our continued health and survival. Without us, the would crumble. I ask anyone in this group to please explain what a trade deficit is, and how it harms either party. If you allow me to respond, I believe I can refute any and all arguments supporting this mystical creature.
I enjoyed your post tremendously, Neil. Would you next share your views on PGMs and the social upheaval destined to strike South Africa? Keep up your posts. You are a voice of reason and logic.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 00:12
cherokee @trigger-re-visited>(@trigger-re-visited): - with all the up-coming pre-planned events
re: new world order, middle east conflict, s. east asia conflict,
collapse world-wide of financial markets, food shortages, etc...
one will lay claim, to all this fame----2000ad.
the new millenium is the answer to any liberals dream. imagine
being able to blame the year 2000 for asking paula jones
for another private party. the politicians have staked
their claim to fame with the new world order, and with
a millenial change, they now have the vehicle. it just
happens to be a HUMMER!!
cherokee!; ) en-route to the seven sisters for some star-gazing.
- Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 00:08
cyclist another@rally>(another@rally): - FWIW,This time another breakout of platinum on the way to 560,with it silver will hit 5.20 in short order.Dollar index is on the verge of a collapse,this will be accentuated by a rise of short term interest rates.
Cycles looking for a high end of July for precious metals,and a low
for the stock indexes. - Date: Thu Jun 26 1997 00:00
David Blair Macrory goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Quotes, for these days ( -as best recalled ) :
Oscar Ichazo: When the ego, or a society, have reaped the full hell
of the false security and status, they have so vainly pursued; they
are at the point of collapse, and rebirth.
Ayn Rand: When an individual, or a nation, ( can no longer get away with writing/kiting, bouncing checks ) is facing/drowning-in bankruptcy; they may rage about, clamoring for someone, something, to save them. Or they can become calm, quiet, and look within, to their hidden resources ( -Ft. Knox, are you still there? ) , and start rebuilding.
Founding Fathers: Government is fire; if not controlled, it will destroy you. ( happy independence day )
Central bank guru of merry ole England: Let me control a nation's money; I care not one wit, who makes the laws. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:57
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - What is wrong with Kitco price updates!!!! If anyone has a better site that updates gold faster I'd love it if you could share!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:45
Neil Collett in JHB ncollett@ilink.nis.co.za>(ncollett@ilink.nis.co.za): - Morning all. I spent nine months in Clute, Texas last year and to all my buddies in the Houston area: Y'all's market is fixin' te crash!
I appreciate the one or two comments on my posting last night ( afternoon your time ) - more please!! Could someone please give me an idea of what the short term effects of crash will have on US and Canadian Gold stocks. The SA market is only just starting to hot up and is way behind Wall Street in irrational exuberance due to the cool headedness of our Central Bank Governer Chris Stals - interest rates still at about 17%! The SA market will definitely follow Wall Street's cue during a crash but I am hoping our already thumped gold shares will get off lightly.
I'm off to work now. Happy nail-biting!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:37
6pak Disagree @ Legal status>(Disagree @ Legal status): - Walter hole June 25 @ 22:52 I disagree with your position, Walter,
unless, your reference is to individual's only. And not multinational
Corporations, and their legal Canadian Corporate status. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:37
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - More Info: When the correction occurs ( before October - prob. August ) , then Gold will get to US$586-620 short term. Technically that makes sense. ( All Kitco freaks breathe a sigh of relief! ) But will turn out to be too dear long term. However, it will then drop down to approx US$132 long term.
Japan reportedly has been buying platinum recently, in addition to China. Hence the big platinum spike upwards. They are supposed combine buying later, so that they form a new Asian currency block. They want Platinum around US$127 oz long term average, with Gold around the same area.
Platinum becomes the new reserve currency for the new Asian APEC Block. It IS short in supply. Remember, the NWO boys must have 3 major trading blocks. Europe, Asia & NAFTA. ( For the next stage ) Hence, they are all in on the deal, CB's included. Currently, the Asian area is not properly formed from a currency point of view.
I do not think much of this is happening by accident.
Q. Don't you find it interesting that Hashimoto came out with this just on the eve of the recent Bilderberger Conflab in the US I do agree that it is smarter for Hashimoto to do Greenspan's dirty work for him, as many people around the world are awake to the real operation of the US Federal Reserve.
I then concur with CHEROKEE's view:
the new world order has planned this debacle so as to gain another block of power from those whom they so AVIDly serve!
Remember, not all news spin is error. Often it is true, but timed for maximum impact. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:29
Savage hot wire>(hot wire): - PANDA: good analogy!!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:24
panda @goodnight!>(@goodnight!): - NJ -- Perspective man! Perspective! :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )
Didn't O'Neil, the founder of Investors Business Daily, run some go-go funds in the late sixties and early seventies that went bust? Don't get me wrong, the Newspaper is pretty good for what it is, momentum style investing. Was that an oxymoron? Momentum style investing? Hmmm, must be getting late....... Paradigm shifts, they can be painful! - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:21
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - XAU up 2 last night, we have the right preludes!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:19
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Crystal Ball: I'm with you!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:18
Savage e-gold>(e-gold): - ELDO: re your 21:48...I agree but the scenario will be,gold backs the euro-dollar, after of course, all other avenues fail. Possibly, Asia may play devil's advocate to bring down the dollar; then a white knight, European of course, suggests....GOLD to bring solidity back to world financial markets via the mighty EURO ( dollar ) .
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:18
Crystal Ball Gold@bottom>(Gold@bottom): - Check out ASA daily chart-- volume has been drying up on recent decline. Then look at ASA monthly chart. Sure as hell looks like long term support at $30/share. I have a very strong feeling the US markets are gonna go down the tubes in short order, and metals are gonna ROCK & ROLL!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:15
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - My live prices at my brokers site has just crashed. This is usually caused by too many people accessing the server! Mmmmm something is brewing here in Australia at the moment. Wall Street should be interesting tonight!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:12
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Prutez: I'm banking on it : )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:12
ezau swami@sub.rosa>(swami@sub.rosa): - Since a few are making predictions, I might as well give you
my vision. This is line with the Barrons' round table article
this week. while reading it I got a vision of 4800 on the
Dow-Jones Industrials Index by the end of December 1997.
Now, cheer up: Lena Put a hammer by every guest's plate
because she was serving pound cake for dessert.
Politicians divide their time between running for office and running for cover.
:- ) }} - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:11
tttttttttttt fffffffffffff>(fffffffffffff): - I wonder if Iran or Iraq or anyone else now can pressure the US gov't by running the gold price up? It would sure be cheaper than war.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:07
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - ALL: Looks like a mini-panic is stirring up again tonight. S&P futures now off 2.00 points. T-Bonds of 3. Gold now up $1.20. Whenever stocks and bonds tank, gold rallies. Watch for stocks and bonds to break down tomorrow, watch for an upside break-out in gold and silver.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:05
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com): - TO SASHA: The pleasure was mine. BTW I didn't even get a chance to say thank you for shopping at Kitco!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:04
NJ Bonds>(Bonds): - Eldorado : Rubin interview gives a number of $300 billion in long term US bonds held by Japan. Today's nervous breakdown in the market was caused by the 'rumor' of just 1 billion sale by a foreign CB. Yet we are to believe that even a concerted sale would cause nothing more than a temporary disruption.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 23:02
Puetz @ Run-on-the-mutuals>(@ Run-on-the-mutuals): - DJ, Front, Panda: In the 1930s, it was a run-on-the-banks that broke many people -- that's where they had their savings. In the 1990s, it's likely to be a run-on-the-mutual-funds that wipes out people's savings. You are right!!! Mutual funds will experience suspensions, failures, and closures -- just like the banks in the 1930s.
Do suspose the government will then create an FDIC for the stock market? ( laugh, laugh ) - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:52
walter hole walt@min.com>(walt@min.com): - 6pack:Re purchase of Large owner trackts of land in Canada by
foreigners.
Only Canadians or Landed Immigrants can legaly purchase and own
title to large tracts of land here.
Foreigners may purchase a home or small a small parcel of land around
the home.
Any other sales or transactions are legaly not possible.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:50
Puetz @ Jokes>(@ Jokes): - Tort: Just having fun with you. The first thing I look for every morning is your joke of the morning. The heck with all of this market stuff, that's secondary!! Keep the jokes coming -- even cowboy jokes if ya' have to!!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:45
Speed what the heck>(what the heck): - WW: There are no land mines in Vermont, unless Ted placed some while traveling. Get the whole story before posting and remember RUSH is right! I enjoy your posts on gold, this land mine thing is off the wall. Gotta be at work at sun up, so catch you later.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:43
NJ Damage Control>(Damage Control): - Seems Rubinspan not buying SPOOs on Globex tonight. http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:38
Eldorado @the presses>(@the presses): - Panda -- If the US hasn't loaned it all out, we have something like 35,000 tons. Beyond that, I believe we also have the fastest presses in the west as well as in the east. But if we were to buy more, it better be done before no one wants the dollar anymore!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:36
Speed @retiring for the evening>(@retiring for the evening): - Cherokee: Mike Sheller this am posted this:
Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 12:57
Mike Sheller ( I don't care if it's cloudy or brite ) :
A valuable demo of how astrology can be an aid in windows ( time ) and watching thru them...
Gold-Eagle's next to last edition of The Astrological Investor featured, among other predictions, SAUDI ARABIA - we are fixed on June 19, 20, 21 here as Mars conjuncts Saudi's Sun at 0 degrees Libra...Potent energies as a background to this potentially aggravating aspect for Saudi Arabia. Watch the news here. End of June features several other aspects falling into place.
Well, Saudi Arabia IS aggravated. Today's Wall Street Journal ( June 25 ) reports in the Commodities section that Saudi Arabia and Iran have announced agreement to work together to prod other OPEC members to curtail oil production with the goal of raising world oil prices by as much as $4. While this unusual alliance is quite powerful, it is expected that there will not be much of a change in attitude concerning chronic quota busting by other OPEC members.
By the way, Saturn is now at 19 Aries, conjuncting NYSE Moon. Will it finally launch silver as it did in '68? As analyzed months ago, July still promises to be HOT! - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:33
panda @>(@): - Not that the Globex means that much anymore ( as an indicator ) , it looks like an early no confidence vote.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:30
panda @silly>(@silly): - Here's a question for all. Which block, Asian, European, USA, could run their printing presses fast enough to buy all of the gold first? :- ) )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:26
6pak Canada @ USofA & Asia (International)>(Canada @ USofA & Asia (International)): - Steve ( Perth - Western Australia ) @ 21:40 I watch the posts of George S.
Cole, he is mindful of the rise, and then the pull back of gold. He is
very steady, and appears to read the signs, very well. He has not
suggested a $200.00 oz. but, can anyone truly know at this point.
Very interested in your remarks regarding the purchase of your country's
large land holdings. Canada, also has seen, and continues to see large
amounts of land purchase's, of international interests. Yes, all
citizens of each country should be concerned, as I expect you are, as I
am also. Wealth knows no borders, or citizenship.
On a positive note, for gold, these international interests, may have
run out of their need for land, and now realize, that they will have
to institute a war to protect their land holdings. Instead of war, and
the cost of armies, they maybe turning their attention to precious
metals, and will be able to better protect their wealth, until the world settles down. Chaos and Flux, is not good for business. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:23
panda @>(@): - cherokee -- I think it has more to do with Voorlons and The Shadows.
Regarding my earlier temper tantrum, warm weather is tough on us panda's. My comments on the volatility had more to do with the psychology of the, Quick Buck. We get a two to three percent dip, people jump in figuring that this is a good 'buying' oppertunity. Others on the side line, see their brethren 'making money', not realizing what a psychological strain it is to put money at risk. At some point, these 'weak hands' get so stressed out that they bailout. Thus, the volatility. The question is, how many times can you flex the wire before it breaks? The only clue that you get, is the frictional heating that takes place in the wire. Once you notice the heat, the end is very near. Now, how hot is the market? - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Panda -- 'The Privateer' has had an editorial to that affect for the longest time. Maybe it is still there. I'm rather surprised everyone hasn't seen it by now. A most excellent article about the SEC regulation and what it means! But what you say is true. 'Repayment in kind', though the 'kind' is not necessarily in the same stock. Only that it is stock! And I don't believe that it is relegated to just the MFs!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:21
David Blair Macrory goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - Today's, Wednesday's, market action continues to strengthen/confirm that a dramatic up-side reversal in gold and silver prices, and related investments, is 'at hand'. This new bull market in precious metals will dwarf anything seen, in any market, before. Large blocks & millions of shares, of major precious metals mining companies' stocks, have been, and are being, exchanged, and accumulated, by 'strong money' at these historic lows.
Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:20
David Blair Macrory ( goldfevr@pacbell.net ) :
An increasing number of this market-student's pieces of the puzzle, suggest that gold &
silver are very likely completing their bottoming-formation. A major, or primary
trend-reversal, with potentially explosive upside potential -- both for the precious metals,
and for gold & silver mining stocks -- may be imminent, in this holiday period.
#1. Commitment of Traders patterns.
#2. Numerous divergences/technical indicators: oscillators, price and volume relationships.
#3. Gold currently hitting new lows, for this trading period; while
silver is giving increasing clues that it will likely not confirm.
In other words, silver prices will likely not hit new lows, versus gold's
recent/current new lows. And, in the recent/current trading period, silver prices will very
likely not drop below silver's own recent-past lows of early January, and late April, ( - while
gold has/is ) .
#4. Increasing volatility, and uncertainty, in other investment markets.
There is no guarantee or 'promise', stated, or suggested, in these
comments; they are only my personal opinions. As such, these
observations are for the sake of joining-in, for mutual sharing, and/or for educational
purposes. They are not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation, to buy or sell
any particular investments.
Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:18
Ww @New England>(@New England): - I dont want to get off the gold topic completely ( but this is govt related ) but I want to mention something that one of my doctor friends invited me to participate in. Apparently according to the AMA there are businesses and property owners who have been negligent about not discovering Land mines of all things which were planted by public companies for purposes of excavation and even mining. Apparently many injuries are taking place which require medical expertise regarding prosthetics for which some of the injured have no insurance coverage. The lawyers come in to find the guilty party to provide coverage to pay the doctors plus pay for any future injuries if appropriate so as to defray taxpayer costs if govt pays vis a vis private enterprise. However, because of the statute of limitations many suits atre barred. It is an interesting and important area for the legal and medical people to cooperate. I heard Rush Limbaugh disparage the land mine effort b/c it was headed by William Kennedy Smith. Rush hasnt had a limb blown off by a land mine so he should keep his mouth shut.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:17
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold up and ralling !!! yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhh! up 75c London
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:10
panda @>(@): - FWIW, regarding mutual funds, I've never liked them. With regards to redemption during 'extrordinary' circumstances, if I remember correctly, the funds only have to pay out five ( 5 ) percent of your holdings per month. They also can payout 'in kind'. In other words, they can give you the shares of stocks that make up the fund. You can be sure of one thing, you won't be getting the 'blue chip' shares of your fund. Again, if memory serves me, I think this came about in the early seventies via the SEC in the U.S. I don't know about elsewhere.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:10
cherokee @crude-calls-have-new-life?>(@crude-calls-have-new-life?): - speed---
what rumors associated with saudi\iran? - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:07
cherokee @shame-city>(@shame-city): - steve-in-australia
would like to apologize for the example of what a president
should not be, visiting your country.
can ya'll tie him up so he does not get lost, or tear
another ligament on one of his early morning wanderings.
hard to believe he is SUPPOSED to be represenative of
our country!
the pundits have been telling everybody that these huge
swings in the paper indicies are to be expected due
to the huge volume and record highs. could all the ANALysts
be wrong? again? the bullish sentiment was at all time highs
right before the '29 crash. does history repeat itself?
can the past tell us the future?
no one KNOWS AS MUCH AS YOU think they know!!!
use you own mind, to make YOUR OWN decisions.
some folks will believe ANYTHING!
PAPER DOWN --- STUFF UP.
it has happened before, and it is
fixing to happen again.
the hashimoto a-bomb is a sign of the times. they are a changing!
the paper beast has a terminal illness. its' death throes will
rip asunder the entire financial system. the new world order
has planned this debacle so as to gain another block of power
from those whom they so AVIDly serve! whom are the servants,
and whom are served? riki don't lose that number! ( steely dan )
cherokee!; ) server of dilithium crystals to the ssm.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:05
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold up 80c ( kitco ) 55c ( London ) ; mmmmn here come that $200oz hahahahaha
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:01
DJ Spooky>(Spooky): - Front, miro, ali: I checked out the small print in a couple of fund prospectuses ( prospecti? ) that I had around. Front. you are right. In all of them there is a clause that allows them to defer redemption and/or payment if a ) trading on NYSE is restricted or the exchange is closed, b ) the SEC has by order permitted such suspension, or c ) an emergency, as defined by the rules of the SEC making disposal of portfolio investments or determination of the value of the net assets of the fund not reasonably practicable. Miro, I didn’t see any exceptions for 401k accounts. Are you sure these are exempt? In any case, what a frightening image this paints. Millions of people trying desperately to move their assets to a safe place but having them tied up indefinitely by government edict!!
I assume money market funds are subject to the same restrictions, so these are no good. Keeping uncommitted funds in brokerage accounts is not much better, even in cash, as they probably have it tucked away somewhere else that is not safe. I guess precious metal stocks and/or the metals themselves are the only save place to be. Time to start making some adjustments.
GVC: Hope you are right that SA gold stocks are the place to be in the coming rally. I’m in pretty deep and have been obviously taking my lashes. And I couldn’t help adding BLYDY to my position with the beating its taken lately. ( You can expect another ˝ point drop in BLYDY any day now. Sorry John D. – I couldn’t resist it. )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 22:01
Speed @Go Cowboys>(@Go Cowboys): - EBN Gold up .45 and I guess that's where the billion from bonds is going. Oil is going up on Saudi/Iran rumors. Interestin' times ahead.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:57
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold up 60c; Expect a gold rally towards close this week and next. Today represents excellent buying opportunity. For all you who think gold will go to $200oz: I have a car I want to sell you!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:54
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - Steve, I don't know if Platinum can fit the bill. It might be too rare.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:53
Roebear @whatgoesaround>(@whatgoesaround): - First the Fed Chums and Buddies CB's sell gold, rumor to sell gold. Fed has a study saying it should too. Keep the Au down. Now someone is threatening to sell Fed's paper, now someone is selling Fed paper.. ironic, isn't it? Anybody remember MR Yen saying dollar too high? It's not as high now is it at 113 yen from as high as 127? The japanese gave a clear warning on that also. I take Mr Hashimoto at his word, japan has been sufferring since it's bubble market broke, they will not put up with currency manipulation again for US trade wishes. The japan that can say no may have arrived.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:50
Speed @home in HOUSTON>(@home in HOUSTON): - Tortfeasor: Pay no attention to the critics and keep 'em coming. Some of us understand cowboy humor.
Mr. Puetz: Please don't antagonize the entertainer, those spurs are real.
Vronsky: The Strategic Investor article is top notch. It would appear that the pace of events is quickening.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:48
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - The bottom line of all the debt paper out there is that it all must be repatriated, one way or another! How it gets done will not alleviate the pain, only the amount of pain absorbed in a given period of time. But to also remain as any kind of power in the world also means that very substantial steps be taken at the same time, and preferably before, that will put 'worth' back into the currency. Seeing how our 'worth' in 'promise to pay' is diminishing by the day, and coming to an end at any time, it behooves the government to begin it's own paradigm shift in thinking. After all, if they want to maintain control... What better way than to finally allow gold to rise over time to a level where the currency could be appropriately backed by it. It won't alleviate the pain of the debt that must be extinguished, but it would allow this country to carry on 'honest', non-debt-based trade. At this time, this is the only possible means of salvaging a bad situation that I see! Discussion would be most welcomed!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:48
Tortfeasor Catholic joke for Puetz>(Catholic joke for Puetz): - While the markets quiver with lack of decisiveness I'm going to go ahead and post the following Catholic joke especially for Puetz--enjoy.
A very spiritual, devout and holy priest dies and is immediately swept
up to heaven.
St. Peter greets him at the Pearly Gates, and says, Hello, Father,
we've been waiting for you for a long time. Welcome to Heaven! You
are very well known here, and as a special reward, because you are
such a spiritual and holy man, we're going to grant you anything
you wish even before we enter Heaven. What can I grant you?
Well, the priest says, I've always been a great admirer of the
Virgin Mother. I've always wanted to talk to her.
St. Peter nods his head to one side, and lo and behold who should
approach the priest but the Virgin Mary!
The priest is beside himself, and he manages to say, Mother, I
have always been a great admirer of yours, and have studied
everything I could about you and followed your life as best I
could. I have studied every painting and portrait ever made of
you, and I've noticed that you are always protrayed with a
slightly sad look on your face. I have always, always wondered
what it was that made you sad. Would you please tell me?
Well, says Mother Mary, honestly, I was really hoping for a girl.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:40
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - EB: Thank you for your support. Hope my source in wrong, but it comes via a French Company here is Australia linked to Platinum ( In Australia, EB stands for Emu Bitter Beer!! A decent drop.
6pak: Maybe gold will move up for a while, then drop to under $200 oz.
I feel we are on the verge of some MAJOR international power shifts.
So big, we have no idea how it is going to pan out. Watch China & the Japs. The Japs & other Asian countries have bought a LOT of real estate here in Australia. We will see how beneficial that will be in the future.
Really, we have the makings of a decent War down the track. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:37
Tortfeasor Re: Joke>(Re: Joke): - Puetz, I am hurt beyond hurting that you disparage my cowboy joke, a joke dedicated to the last bastion of rugged individualism outside this hardhitting website. I'm going to just rustle back into my joke archive for something with more bang.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:36
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - When are those tosses going to get the hint that gold is NOT going to go down past 335 and start buying!!!!!!!!!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:34
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Is gold going to sit in limbo between 336-339 for the rest of my life?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:30
Playground Monitor ->(-): - Hashimoto: I could kick your a**
Rubin: Try me, little man with no punch
Hashimoto: ?
Will this playground spat escalate? - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:30
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - George W. Loh: Good questions. I'll take a stab at answering. The Japanese banks are carrying many non-performing loans and could use the proceeds from U.S. bond sales to help defray the cost of writing down the bad debt. They could buy gold. They could buy more U.S. companies. The important point ( IMHO ) from Hashimoto was the connection between selling bonds and then buying gold. It signals disrespect for the dollar as reserve currency, or at least a warning to our Fed and president. Hashi is disrespecting ( dissin' ) Bill and Alan and Bob because he perceives excessive arrogance in greater quantities than irrational exuberance. The bond sale today is a live shot across the bow. The splash is real. It remains to be seen if the U.S. president and advisors can smooth the waters.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:24
EB eblm@utech.net>(eblm@utech.net): - Steve ( Perth W.A. ) :
WE know who moves price... GO RJ!
AWAY!
EB - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:22
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - NJ -- What he fails to mention is that if Japan sells, so does everybody else. It'll be the loudest belch ever heard as everone gets up and leaves the table! Who'll want to be the barf bag holder?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:12
George W. Loh gloh@accessweb.com>(gloh@accessweb.com): - Regarding rumors or speculation that Japanese may sell U.S.
Treasury Bonds; If they sell them, what would they do with the
money they will get for them? Buy more U.S. Trearury Bonds?
Other Bonds? Rockefeller Center? Pebble Beach? MGM? First they
they have to find a place to put the money they will get from any
possible sale. Will they buy gold? They can buy gold now with their
tremendous trade surplus every month and every year but don't.
Comment? - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:09
vronsky The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)>(The Point of Maximum Optimism by Michael Belkin (Strategic Investment)): - Internationally acclaimed Market Analyst asserts over-valuation, irrational exuberance, expanded risk-exposure & technical hyper over-extension will cause horrendous losses when bubble bursts. See Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:06
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Simple Man -- I can agree with that. That's their first line of defense; scare tactics, and a liberal dose of dollars to keep things in 'control'. We are all a BIG happy family, and nothing escapes the lips of the powers that be without a plan being in effect. It does though put a crack in the dam. The G word has been mentioned. Paper has been brought up. Debt has been mentioned. Game plan? What's on their minds? Would the G word have been mentioned if only paper and debt might have sufficed? Maybe the BIG happy family concept is also a lie past a certain extent!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:03
NJ Hashimoto>(Hashimoto): - All : Here is the Rubinspin for damage control, based on a wing and a prayer. See http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/25/z0002_10.html
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 21:02
shadow carson at vivanet.com>(carson at vivanet.com): - Slick willie and star remind me of the two guys walking across the bridge over the river. They stop to pee. One says boy that water is cold and the other says yea and deep too.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:56
6pak YEP !>(YEP !): - Steve ( Perth - Western Australia ) Gutsy enough; I will give you that
steve, good shot, eh! Reasonable prediction. I for one will
take note. ( Gutless wonder I am, ha,ha,I appreciate your remark )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:51
WW @New England>(@New England): - RE CHINA AND ECONOMY/GOLD: I have a good friend who works for an international organization/is a Chinese Citizen stationed in USA/ and is a member in high standing of the Communist Party of China. We discuss politics and economics openly. I asked him about China's movement towards Free Markets. He stated that the allowance of free mkt in certain regions was to strengthen socialism. He stated the Chinese Govt is committed to Socialism but recognizes the use of Capitalism in achieving the final goal of advanced Communism. He stated that Capitalism is better at achieving certain things and the Party unlike in other former or still socialist countries recognizes this. However, the bad effects of capitalism are kept removed from 80% of the people thus preventing its ethic from overtaking the country. He stated the Police and the Peoples Liberation Army are important in preventing a total free mkt takeover and a return to feudalism or domination by Japan ( which many remember and revile ) . Nevertheless, he says the people would never really attack the party as they realize many benefits and protections would be lost. He believes Russia will ultimately be pushed back into the Socialist camp given the disasterous results for most Russians under the new govt ( which he says are not completely reported in our press ) . They show pictures and stories from Russia to demonstrate what could happen if the party lost power.
He was very bullish on gold and said it is a basis for creating faith in a strong Socialist currency. He said US attacks on China re Tianamen massacre in 1989 were an attempt to deal a death blow to Socialism in light of European Socialism's decline at the time. He stated it didnt work and that the growing inequalities in the West were working in favor of their system and gold given the ABSOLUTE need for the US to remain stable. I dont agree but what if the econ debacle we all predict actually occurs. Any thoughts.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:45
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - Re: Hashimoto's statement.
All CBs and Govs know what dangerous situation we are facing.
Greenspan warned markets of irrational exuberence... and nothing, no response. If he increases interest rates... market will plunge and he will be blamed. If he does nothing he will be blamed for not doing anything. Hashimotos statment is premeditated and agreed upon by G8 and is designed to scare the market. It is designed to save Greenspan! Better Hashimoto than Greenspan in the eyes of US investors. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:39
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Fresh from
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/9706/25/marketwrap/
Rumors sink Wall Street
Talk that Asian bank dumped Treasurys sparks frenzy in market
June 25, 1997: 5:06 p.m. ET
NEW YORK ( CNNfn ) -- Renewed concerns that Japanese investors might sell U.S. Treasurys cut into bond prices on Wednesday, sending blue chips on the wildest of carnival rides.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded in a 182-point range, gaining as many as 53 points in the morning, then plunging 129 points in the late afternoon. By the close, blue chips stabilized somewhat and the fickle index closed down 68.08 points at 7,689.98.
Don Hays, direct of investment strategy at Wheat First Butcher Singer, compared the market to a racing car reaching an unheard of speed. We've got this tremendous velocity going on and the market has lost its shock absorbers, he said. I expect to see this kind of volatility from here on until the market eases off some of these valuation problems.
The selloff came as market players reacted to rumors that a hedge fund controlled by an Asian bank sold $1 billion in U.S. 10-year notes. On Monday, Japan's Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto suggested that Japanese investors could sell their U.S. bonds to keep the dollar strong against the yen. Blue chips lost 192 points in reaction to that comment and the frenzied mood attributed to Hashimoto quickly ignited a second round of selling on the fresh rumors.
Although no one was certain late Wednesday what had happened -- speculation on the identity of the seller ran from the Bank of Japan to the Bank of China -- traders fled bonds. The price of the 30-year Treasury fell 19/32, lifting the yield to 6.73 percent and adding pressure to sell stocks.
Reminds me of december when Greenspan warned the market then later fired the first .25% salvo.
Could Hashimoto's comment have been a warning and this the first shot.
Or do we just have a very nervous market.
Also this morning in Aussie land we have Clinton on the news ( CNN ) .
Talking about his sexual preferences and airing his dirty laundry. YUK!!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:38
Sasha @home>(@home): - Every once in a while there is a post that starts like this: I have been lurking on this site for couple of months. This is my first post. Than it is followed by some kind of typical novice question. In my case there is no question. You guys have answered all of them. Reading Kitco is truly enriching ( so far mostly spiritually ) . However, the purpose of my first post is not to praise you. I have an amazing story for you.
To All: You are not going to believe this. Today I saw the CREATOR, our CREATOR !!! He exists!!! He is alive!! I stood in front of him, couldn’t touch him, but He did speak to me. Wait, wait, don’t dismiss my post yet. Listen to this. He also thinks that gold is being manipulated!!! Two days ago it was Hashimoto, today the CREATOR himself. And all that just as I started thinking that we all are a bit paranoid.
I kid you not ! I met Bart the CREATOR in person! Actually, I visited him today in his office in Montreal. ( I too live in Montreal ) . He is a very nice guy. Even though he was busy, he found half an hour for me. I think it was an interesting experience for both of us. You see someone for the first time in your life and you already have something in common - many people who through their posts have become sort of your mutual friends. “What do you think about Mr. X’s idea ? Mr. Y is my favorite. What happened with Mr. ZOOO? How come he is not posting anymore?”
And on and on we went. I didn’t look at my watch but as soon as I got out of the building and saw my wife’s face I knew it was too long. She was waiting in the car while I was supposed to go and get the Maple leaf coin that we bought as a gift .
I expressed my gratitude to Bart for this excellent site that he has created and is successfully running. Being a modest guy he downplayed his own contribution to the site.
To make a long story short. Bart is exactly as any of as thought he would be. Great!!
Bart, Thanks for the site !!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:36
NJ gold>(gold): - All : Hopefully the shape of things to come. Check out spot gold on EBN http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCOMM.HTML-SSI
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:32
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Fundy: I am quite happy for gold to go up...technically it should.
But WILL it? While I am aware about the CB line about gold becoming the silver of the 1870's, lets think for a bit. Gold is a commodity like anything else. It goes up & down. When Gold Peaks at a Zillion dollars an ounce, what are you going to invest in THEN? There is more going on here than we are being led to believe.
Joe Gutnick's claim to fame is due to his highly interlinking company structure, and his brillilant exploration man, Ed Eshuys. I do have some good contacts.
Hence, I will repost what I was told:
The stock market will crash by October ( at the latest-no surprise )
US interest rates will rise to 33% for 4 to 6 months
( as we are being totally lied to about inflation. What do you think the inflation rate is in the stock market at the moment )
Australian interest rates will rise to 17% for same period
Platinum to rise further, & become the new gold ( hence correlating
with sales of gold by central banks, even during the financial crisis )
Gold price will diminish down to $127 oz, as investors will ignore it,
or is dumped on market by CB's. ( I hope this bit doesn't happen, it shouldn't due to fear factor )
Platinum will be Russia's new Reserve currency, as they don't have one.
They are totally broke, & need to find a new currency. Australia now has some very large 5 year forward contracts with Russia on Platinum.
Asian countries buying Platinum etc. While they put up the smoke-screen
of Hashimoto that they are buying gold. Seems strange for Mr Jap Finance
to be making such an overt public comment, despite understanding the
background scenario. If you want to get a good book, read The Asian Mind Game. What if they were buying something else on the
quiet WHO is driving the platinum price up anyway
Can't prove any of this, & this is hard to post, ( considering a few individuals on this site are not gracious enough to do some lateral thinking once in a while ) . I do know WHAT people think on this site. The bond charts certainly indicate that interest rates will rise.
However, if all of this does happen, remember this prediction.
I am gutsy enough to leave my email address too!! Unlike a few gutless wonders on this site. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:32
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW; Neil -- Two marvelous postings. Neil, don't lurk anymore! A lot of 'interesting' news typically comes from other continents. 'Rock and a hard place', INDEED he is! Very very little wiggle room left! Damned if he does raise rates, and damned if he doesn't! Damned if he leaves them alone, though that 'might' be the safest thing to do, and use 'scare' tactics from various sources and 'make' the market calm the raging bull and perform the magic on the currencies. Might even work for a short while. No cure though.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:30
6pak Newspapers @ Disbelieved (Again)>(Newspapers @ Disbelieved (Again)): - Panda June 25 @ 19:10 I also, was a citizen as you described in your post
be patient, there is hope for all. At least you are getting a re-action,
although, not at the level that exists at this outstanding site ( Kitco )
On the subject, of blind trust in the Media. Regarding the 1930's and
News reporting, there is hope, to be sure, everything has a cycle. Mind
ful of the fact, that all good things take *TIME*
Example:
In looking back, the early 1930's should have promised a time of consid-
erable advancement for most media workers. In the USofA, the events of
the Depression had enhanced the authority of those invested in recording
the events of public life, and many media workers felt that their report-
age-in word, image, or a combination of both--constituted the performance
of an essential social duty. As one wire editor opined in 1932, to dig
themselves out of depression, people must think and they cannot think
unless they are reliably informed ( Cooper 1932,6 )
The potential for advancement, however, was unevenly spread across
different kinds of newsworkers. Coming off of what in one view
constituted a general repudiation of the press reporters appeared to
suffer the most. ( filled with doubt and insecurity ) In the views of some,
not only had the press belittled evidence of the Depression, but its
experiments with tabloidlike journalism and excessive commercialism
constituted what one critic later called playing for the crowds
Journalists and journalism educators were squeezed by both sides;
conservatives wanted better and stronger censorship, and
progressives were bothered by the big business interests of the press.
All of this meant that journalistic professionalism, until then on the
rise, suffered a loss of momentum. It is thus perhaps no surprise that
journalists suffered a loss of credibility in the public eye. The end of
the 1930's was marked by distrust of the press, and public opinion polls
reported that at least one in three people disbelieved what he or she
read in the newspapers. ( Stott 1973,79; - Olson 1935 )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:27
Mike Sheller I remember when...>(I remember when...): - PANDA: Panda, baby, ( re your 19:10 ) I remember when a 10 point move in the DOW was big stuff. I bought my first share of stock in 1969. Know what? 100 points nowadays is same same. It IS percentage that is important. This is normal volatility as we approach a top. Watch the bonds, 113 is critical.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:22
ARIK WISHING>(WISHING): - Check out the recent EBN Quote for things to come shortly. If it were only true.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:21
Oliver @Wake-up it could be real in the future>(@Wake-up it could be real in the future): -
Look EBN Gold Quotes NOW at Gold = $837.20
Up $499.55 or 147%.
Ha...!
Geeee - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:19
miro to Front>(to Front): - Front: moving money daily in Fidelity has some limitations. E.g., some
international funds attach a redemption fee ( 1-1.5% ) for shares kept
less than 90 days. Some funds in select sector ( e.g. American Gold )
has a redemption fee of .75% or $7.50 for funds kept less than 30 days.
Considering that there is no sales commission or maintenance fee it’s
not bad. So when you move 20-30K you don’t feel it so much.
I am bleeding much more from latest drop of FSAGX and FDPMX.
( 50 .. 47 .. 45 .. ENOUGH!! )
If you take out money before the age of 59 you pay 10% penalty and full
tax.
Unfortunately, you can not buy bullion - maybe the penalty would not
be so bad.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:06
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com): - Not much going on in the trading pits. I've been hanging around the gold and silver options markets for a little while each day. I'm tring to learn the ins and outs and all. I've even made a couple markets for some small traders and then got out the same day. ( ie - day trading/ scalping in the options market ) With the small range gold and silver are having each day this is no easy task. Some of the other traders gave me some advise. One piece that really cracks me up is There is never a bad price to sell calls at. ie - No matter what price you sell a call at it will be even lower soon enough. I do not think this came about with this decline. This joke sounded like it's been around for quiet awhile.
Well for what it's worth I still do not think Gold has found a bottom yet. I'm not real sure where the bottom is but I ask myself Was that the bottom at least twice a day and I keep answering no. So I'm still currently short.
As far as the US stock market goes I really feel like short are warrented here. The question is where do you enter and where do you place a stop. Anyway time is clearly running out and any rally in the S&P will be more of a retest of current highes than a new wave up. We will NOT see DOW 8000 this summer!
The comments from the PM of Japan were very interesting. Sell US Bonds and buy Gold. Who would have thought of that idea..... well I mean who besides the people who read this bullitin board regularly? - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 20:04
Jack $168 billion>($168 billion): -
Donald: If the $168 billion figure for US currency circulating abroad is good, just 10% of it would buy about 49.4 million ounces @ $340. LET THE CB's SELL.
If that money is controlled by the black markets, even 10% may be a low figure for possible gold purchases.
Also Russia is in the process of approving gold sales to the public through its banks. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 19:34
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Lan Man & Donald: Regarding charts 56 and 58 in Total Collapse. I use M1 and M3 as the Federal Reserve defines them in their weekly reports. Hence, they do include currency that is circulating overseas. Adjusting out overseas currency, the charts would look worse.
Updated numbers: CHART 56: The M1 contraction has steepend -- it's now falling at a -5.6% annual rate.
CHART 58: Investment liquidity: 1929 was the all-time low at 22.4%. January 1997 was 23.9%. Last Friday, June 23, 1997 -- 22.7% about equal to September 1929!!! If we take overseas currency out of the M3 number, it's now probably below the 22.4% in 1929.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 19:30
APH =============>(=============): - XAU - The XAU had little punch today even with a 200 point rally. Look for the XAU to retest the 94-95 area over the next 2-3 days. If this retest is successful ( which I think it will be ) we should be off to the races.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 19:13
EB Steve(PerthW.A.) 13:52>(Steve(PerthW.A.) 13:52): - RUMOURS
Steve, I've been thinking about your post all day ( the Platinum paragraph ) . I gotta tell you that I've been thinking the same thing and it makes sense. I have thought all along that the Russkies will not be delivering nearly as much metal ( of that we shall soon see ) as they say.
If they can hold out - monetarily speaking- than they should not deliver.
Right or wrong gang? Wouldn't this be a good thing to help propel themselves into the G-8, Democracy, etc? If one of you Kitco Demi-Gods can pick up where I left off or clean my thought up I, and the group, would appreciate it.
This leads me to another Hypothesis...if I may. Think of this:
DR. JECKYL = MR. HYDE
BT = RJ I haven't figured out which person relates to the other. RJ lives vicariously through BT - or vice-versa. And he's having a blast too! NO?
RJ has been telling us all along about PLATINUM. The PL markets are thin enough to move them[significantly]. RJ, We can all appreciate that you must be discreet and we also appreciate you ALLUDING to this and that.
PL TO THE MOOOOON!!
AWAY!
EB
PL...the other WHITE metal...or is that pork - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 19:10
panda @gone.non-linear>(@gone.non-linear): - On a lighter note folks, I hope you are all taking notes on what we are witnessing here. This is history in the making! I talk to people at work, and most believe that the 200 +/- points ( +/- means give or take in this context ) is 'normal' because the market is high in numbers. The 'right way', they say, is to look at this market is in terms of percentages. Ask them what normal 'historical' percentage movements are, and you will get a dumb, I don't know. But they 'know' these movements are O.K. Ask these people what the VIX index is or how volatility is defined and you will usually get a blank stare. They haven't got a clue as to what is 'normal' or not! Garbage in, garbage out. The media says it's 'normal' for these kinds of swings, therefore it's O.K.
Ask these same people what happened on Monday and most couldn't give you the reason why! Ask most who Hashimoto is, and they say, Hashi who? Ask them why the market gyrated today, and the answer is the OPEC boys want more money for their oil! Followed by, We have a MILITARY!, or some other crap along those lines. The ARROGANCE! For those of you who are not in the U.S. of A., I live here. I think the people who make these comments are idiots! The sheep will be shorne! Some people even welcome inflation because that means that their house will go up in value!
BTW, no one ever heard about the Japanese PM talking about gold purchases, meant in jest or otherwise.
I going to the gym to work out now, else I shall blow a fuse or two. Then you will know how mad a panda bear can get! It's truly an awful sight. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 19:07
Donald 105636.2252@ Compuserve.com>(105636.2252@ Compuserve.com): - Lan Man and Steve Puetz: I have some thoughts about charts 56 and 58 in the book. Does it include or exclude the 168 Billion in US currency that circulates overseas? It makes a BIG difference in the amount of domestic leverage.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:44
Front to MIRO:>(to MIRO:): -
Miro:
Thanks for that information. We in Canada have what they call RRSP's ( registered retirement savings plans ) . They work under the same principles as your 401K's I believe ( no expert so could be incorrect ) . Does Fildelity let you change on a daily basis without problems? Don't know, just a question ( :- ) ...
Can you also use your 401K before you're 59 without penalty? We can as long as the monies are treated for tax purposes as income.
TTFN - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:39
EB NUFF SAID - 17:31>(NUFF SAID - 17:31): - WELL SAID!
AWAY!
EB - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:39
GVC @FDPMX>(@FDPMX): - 13 th ( fibonacci number ) day in a row that FDPMX has fallen! Its 14 day average up amount is at the lowest level since I've been tracking it ( 3 years ) .
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:29
GVC @Neil; SA Loves gold>(@Neil; SA Loves gold): - Neil: welcome! what took you so long to post? your thoughts are interesting and well organized. look forward to future posts.
South African gold stocks will be the place to be for the forthcoming rally, IMHO.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:26
Lan Man Steve Puetz@Total Collapse>(Steve Puetz@Total Collapse): - Steve, in reading your book, came across chart 58 on page 143 showing the shrinking liquidity which basically has not been in negative territory since the 1930's. Have you done any updates to this chart since jan 1997 and could you please go into some more detail here on Kitco as to the possible ramifications? Thanks in advance...
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:24
lurker a>(a): - That wasn't BT's post. The style was different.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:21
BIG TRADER @ movin' the markets>(@ movin' the markets): - REB, that was me sellin' t-notes today. wanna' know what i'm gonna' do tomorrow?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 18:01
Neil: Africa Also Loves Gold ncollett@ilink.za>(ncollett@ilink.za): - Hello fellow goldbugs from Johannesburg in sunny South Africa where we actually mine the great stuff. I have been lurking for many weeks now having taken a rather long-suffering position in SA gold shares in February. Without your collective moral support I would have sold out early last week. Yesterday I tripled my position.
Since February I have been trying to piece together the mystery as to why gold ( and my shares ) have been on the decline. It has been a long hard road but with all the opinions and useful up-to-the-minute info offered by you guys I think I am much closer now. I agree broadly with most positive opinion expressed at Kitco and it has been interesting watching sentiment change from the simplistic bull/bear tussle of a month or so ago to a well-founded largely bullish following with only the odd cry in the wilderness. I must compliment Steve Puetz in particular for his valuable insights.
GOLD - THE SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
A piece of the puzzle I feel has perhaps been missed in the mystery of gold’s decline is the history about to made in Europe. Europe has politically committed itself to monetary union 18 months from now. The plan is that the EMU ( European Monetary Union ) will establish a hard European currency in the interest of integrated and enhanced European economic muscle, not to mention the trade benefits. In terms of the Maastricht treaty all participants in the new ECU ( European currency unit ) must embark on an austerity programme and conform to certain budgetary and fiscal constraints in order to be admitted to the new currency. The most controversial of these constraints is a maximum budget deficit of 3 % of GDP.
An embarrassing situation now prevails. It appears that neither Germany, France, Italy nor Spain will make the 3% budget deficit, yet all the countries vehemently claim to be committed to monetary union. Germany in particular has been extremely vocal in insisting that the Maastricht requirements be met - thus they are perhaps the most embarrassed of all and 3% is now being interpreted as about 3%, maybe 3.3 or even 3.5%.
What does all this mean Well we know gold is a political pawn and a low gold price is a reflection of voter confidence in the world’s financial economy. It would appear however that the European voters are not all convinced! Only a slim majority are favour of monetary union. Most worrying perhaps is the German statistic: the latest poll is 39% for and 42 % against. In light of the fact that the new European bank is likely to be the Bundesbank with a name change this is indeed worrying for the monetary bureaucrats. In fact the forex market has already begun discounting the currencies against the dollar ( see pg 22 Economist - June 7th 1997 ) .
Now does it seem strange that when gold rallied in February, the Swiss CB announced a plan to sell gold to compensate holocaust victims? Or that after bulls and bears battled it out for over a month producing the technician’s classic wedge ( often followed by a sharp rise ) that the Belgian CB announced it plans to sell off gold coins the public?
What I am saying is that rumors of central bank selling were insufficient to suppress bullish sentiment and the European CB’s had to resort to formal publicity - all in an effort to prove to the public that European’s are in full support of the EMU.
Now to Greenspan’s predicament. The US Government knows that as economic and financial power shifts to Asia, Europe is their last ally in keeping the financial markets Westernized. The worst thing he could do to Europe is raise interest rates as this would only increase the dollar holdings of Europeans, making their new currency look even softer. They can’t afford to raise their own interest rates in tandem due to the self imposed austerity programme of the Maastricht treaty. I’m sure this was made clear by the European’s at Denver last weekend
Thus I would interpret Hashimoto’s comments as an arrow across the bow of not only the US boat but that of Europe’s gold suppressing strategy and no rate increase lobby.
In short Greenspan is stuck between a rock and hard place. Whatever he does he will be wrong. Either he snubs Europe or Japan. Add to this a bubble on Wall Street and he can’t sleep well at night!
The imminent sharp decline ( dare I say crash ) in US and consequently world financial markets and realization of the US debt predicament, the prospect for a loss of faith in both the dollar and European currencies is very real. The alternative is the Yen and somehow I don’t think the West is comfortable with this idea.
Gold’s meteoric rise will not be driven by inflation, but by the fear that the dollar is no longer fit to serve as the world currency and a new European currency that offers at best an extremely shaky alternative.
In conclusion I quote the master speculator George Soros:
… there is simply no realistic exchange rate at which the dollar can continue fulfilling its role as international reserve currency: the dollar is unsound at any price. Holders of financial assets seek the best store of value, and the dollar no longer qualifies. A country with large budget deficit and a large trade deficit cannot expect foreigners to accept an ever-increasing flow of its currency. Yet the international financial system cannot function without a stable currency as its foundation. This is the central lesson that emerges from the Crash of 1987.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:58
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley): - TSE gold & precious metal index up 1.12%. We haven't seen that for awhile. Maybe the masses are rethinking their strategy? As for the tobacco companies , their the scapegoat for the governments not being able to supply health care as they promised. Who's next?.... the beer companies, or maybe the fast food chains!!!What a joke!!!!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:40
fffffffffff gggggggggg>(gggggggggg): - I guess we know why rubin was announcing pending gov't gold sales before the fact. At the time of his statements; I was flabbergasted as it seemed very stange to tell everyone what he was planning to do be for he did it. I guess it has all been due to behind the scenes talks with Japan.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:31
WW @New England>(@New England): - Everything points to us being on the verge of recession. Consumer Confidence is high ( although expectations are nothing sensational ) and 36% of Americans think jobs are plentiful while 64% look at the situation as mediocre to bad. Given, the stk mkt and the daily propaganda about jobs one would think these nos. would be substantially higher. 64% of the people think the job mkt is punk even with 4.8% unemployment and the constant job machine harangue from the media and Govt officials taking credit not to mention the stk mkt. Economy strong?HELLO!! In sum the job propaganda is to keep money flowing in to support the financial mkts which is the only thing up in the economy. Read recent Investors Daily NY Job mkt bleak w/o WAll St.
The Bankruptcies and rising record debt levels and stagnating earnings ( not the CEOS ) tell the true story ie this economy is fragile and needs a constant infetimine dose to keep going. The signs of depression/recession are all there. The top 20% do not spend enough to offset the pain of the bottom 80%. The incessant chearleading is a sign by those in the know that the economy is very fragile. The French President said it best last weekend ALL WE NEED TO HAVE AS GOOD ECONOMY AS AMERICA IS..... IMPORT THE OPTIMISTIC REPORTING ON THE ECONOMY AS DONE BY THE US MEDIA...
OL Jacques must have been watching CNBC ans CNN!!
There you have it. NUF SAID! - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:25
EB TOBACCO>(TOBACCO): - Government sactioned murder? or
Dumb-Ass, weak-willed people slowly killing themselves...
Oh...I don't know.
AWAY!
EB
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:19
EB narco stocks>(narco stocks): - George: I'll take some of those. Talk about some easy money...
AWAY!
EB - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:16
EB nothing continues to go down...>(nothing continues to go down...): - AMEN brother!
AWAY!
EB - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:10
Puetz @ tobacco>(@ tobacco): - George Cole: Tobacco companies haven't killed people. Smokers voluntarily reduce their life expectancy on their own. Responsilility must lie with consumers -- people choose what they do and don't want to do with their life. If they demand cigarettes, someone will make them -- legally or illegally ( in the case that tobacco production is outlawed ) .
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 17:07
Miro @fidelity mutual funds>(@fidelity mutual funds): - Front: none of such restrictions apply when the money is in 401K
retirement plan - majority of US baby boomers mutual fund investment.
I personally have my 401K money in Fidelity accounts and I frequently
move money around - lately a lot of it from stocks to money market
funds - no restriction there ( yet )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:57
George S. Cole gold action>(gold action): - ALL:
Excellent action in the gold complex today! Bullion up a modest 40 cents, but XAU and HUI posted nice gains. This is the kind of action I like to see -- the stocks leading bullion higher. Another day or two of this and we will be ready for a powerful move up. Don't write BT off yet.
Yesterday's powerful stock market rally seems to have been a bull trap. Still think the market will not make its final peak until August, but a short-term decline of 500 points or so prior to a final blowoff rally looks like a good bet. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:52
Front TO DJ:>(TO DJ:): - DJ:
I think you're right on your thinking, however, you may have missed a couple of things. I'm not sure if it's the same with the American Fidelity funds ( I'd be surprised if it wasn't though ) but in Canada, ( as with many many other funds I might add ) , there is a stipulation of not allowing transferring of funds out of one fund type to another if it would hurt the general unitholders overall. There is also the case where the fund, rather than selling the stocks, are allowed to just transfer owernership of the proportionate shares directly to you without selling. I have been one of those caught by Altamira Mutual funds on the first issue and I read the second in an article concerning the pitfalls of Mutual funds.
It means, at least in Canada, that if the place falls apart, it's like a bank run, they CAN stall off the returning of monies.
TTFN
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:49
REB na>(na): - Steve Puetz: Was that BT selling the 10 year notes? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:47
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Steve Puetz -- I think they need some concrete for that crack in the dam! The paper they stuffed in the hole doesn't seem to be holding! But they have a lot more of it that they'll use first.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:40
George S. Cole narcotics going public>(narcotics going public): - Stradmaster:
I wouldn’t come down too hard on AIDS patients or anyone looking to scam the system. What about all the CEOs getting multi-million dollar bonuses and/or huge stock profits as they slash thousands of jobs. The moral climate was set long ago at the top -- in this economy of all against all you are a fool if you let obsolete ideas such as a sense of ethics and fair play prevent you from getting rich as fast as possible and by any means possible.
The tobacco companies have killed tens of millions of people over the years and their stockholders have grown hugely wealthy in the process. If narcotics are ever legalized ( don't rule this out ) can you imagine the P/E multiples that the cartels would sell at if they sold stock to the public. Huge profit margins and return on investment. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:38
Puetz @ Contemplating>(@ Contemplating): - If that was an Asian central bank that sold US 10-year notes today, what do you suppose they will do with the proceeds from the sale?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:22
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Wednesday June 25 1:13 AM EDT
Gutnick predicts gold price rally
SYDNEY, June 25 ( Reuter ) - Australian mining entrpreneur Joseph Gutnick forecast on Wednesday a rally in the gold price later this year or next year when hedge funds and speculators who were short hundreds of tonnes of gold became bored with the metal and left the market after squaring their positions.
Gutnick said in a luncheon address to the Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce that he welcomed comments on Monday by Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto that Japanese investors may look at switching from U.S treasuries to gold.
``Hearing the prime minister of an economy like Japan talking about investing in gold should be encouraging to those who like to invest in an anti-cyclical environment,'' Gutnick said.
``Nothing continues to go down. There'll be a time when Wall Street will significantly correct and from what I hear from the prime minsiter of Japan, that's going to be a time when many countries again turn to gold,'' he said.
Gutnick said fundamental Asian demand for gold would eventually overpower the short positions held by speculators and hedge funds, who would tire of their positions as the price continued to stabilise above US$335 an ounce.
``Once they don't get the returns out of gold and they get bored with this particular commodity and go on to the next commodity or currency, you'll see an improvement in the price of gold and possibly a dramatic one,'' he said.
``There are many hundreds of tonnes of gold that the hedge funds and speculators have shorted, the biggest short position ever in the history of gold, and if the price of US$335 holds and they cannot penetrate it because of the physical demand, then we will see gold rebound,'' he said.
Gutnick's stable of gold exploring and mining companies, including Great Central Mines Ltd ( GCM.AX ) and Centaur Mining & Exploration Ltd ( CTR.AX ) , have a combined resource base of over 10 million ounces and expected annual production within two years of one million ounces. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:21
Ali @innevereverwonderland>(@innevereverwonderland): - DJ,re your 15.03post.It makes as much or more sense than I see here.Wondering only if those mutual funds aren't playing musical chairs with their clients money?They must be buying and selling to each other.No creation of new values here.Makes you wonder what these clients think, if anything at all.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:20
Puetz @ Jokes>(@ Jokes): - Tort: You better give up on the cowboy jokes, and go back to the Catholic ones.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:14
Puetz @ Hashimoto fall-out>(@ Hashimoto fall-out): - Eldorado: You and others were correct two nights ago -- when you said the dam was bursting. Today, floor sources in the bond pits said that $2 billion of real cash sales of 10-year notes hit the floor today. The sales were rumored to have come from either an Asian central bank or a hedge fund. How much longer before other holding US Bonds and Notes get scared out. Hashimoto has opened the flood gates.
Meanwhile, in the spin-control room, Secretary Rubin said today that there's no reason to see a big sell-off of U.S. bonds.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:13
NJ bonds>(bonds): - panda : Your 16.03. That's what Rubin said this afternoon in first response to Hashimoto remarks. Our markets are so broad and so deep they can absorb such selling with only a short term disruption. If you or anyone else has information on the numbers involved, would you please post.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:11
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day): - As an ode to the odious performance by the paper god today in the markets I submit the following:
This cowboy walks into a bar and orders a beer. His hat is made of brown wrapping paper; his shirt and his vest are made of waxedpaper; his chaps, pants, even his boots are made of typing paper; andh is spurs are made of tissue paper. Pretty soon they arrested him for rustling. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:06
Puetz @ Westboy>(@ Westboy): - Westboy: You're right!!! I retract my 11:33 -- when the Dow looked like it was going to put another leg up. I imagine the market blew a lot of shorts out at that point, then reversed course, and collapsed again.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:05
BillD @BT>(@BT): - BT...You have 2 days ... 48 hours ... top do your thing ... or you are outta here!..:- )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 16:03
panda @>(@): - OK, OK. I'll settle for a plus close on the HUI & XAU.... Really wanted a close on the highs, oh well.. Besides, who's worried about foreigners selling our bonds?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:52
yellowdog @Kitco>(@Kitco): - Nice move in BGO today-UP .30-not bad for a $6 stock
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:44
vronsky IS GOLD DEAD? (...in japan it AIN'T!)>(IS GOLD DEAD? (...in japan it AIN'T!)): - In the light of gold’s sickly performance for many month’s, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metal’s history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/gold_dead.html
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:43
panda @>(@): - Sorry, that was 20K puts on the S&P. Chalk it up to irrational bearishness. :- ) )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:40
panda @>(@): - I love the closing comment; Somebodies a bear, 28K puts on the S&P can't be all wrong...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/25/z0000_z00_9.html - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:32
NJ legerdemain>(legerdemain): - D.A. Legerdemain permeates the entire media coverage of Hashimoto remarks. Anyone who thinks that his remarks will be shrugged off by the markets, is really not thinking.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:31
panda @>(@): - Wow, I have the place all to myself again. I always knew the Internet was reliable! :- ) ) Just don't trade over it!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:23
panda @>(@): - Gawd, I luv it... Hashimoto = paradigm shift. :- ) )
OK, maybe I'm early. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:08
panda @>(@): - And this is being sold as NORMAL volatility? :- ) ) :- ) )
TICK and TRIN look GRIM! - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:05
Byron @ How Now Brown Cow:>(@ How Now Brown Cow:): - Dow down 109. Falling like a rock. May it go to Hades : )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 15:03
DJ Where will the money go?>(Where will the money go?): - Just a thought for consideration by this august group.
Let's agree that mutual fund buying is driving the market up. When the market drops and investors really get concerned, the first thing they will do is pick up the phone and call Fidelity, or whomever, and move the money from wherever it is into money market funds. Not commercial paper, mind you, but government money funds backed by full faith and credit blah blah blah. This could happen VERY fast. ( After this move, people will relax a little and take more time looking at other places to park money, like gold hopefully. )
Let's see. 10 million people moving $20,000 each ( was $50,000 before the crash ) is $200 billion dollars. This might solve Bill's problem with the Japanese, but the commercial credit market would be devastated, not to mention the equity market. Leads to very high rates on commercial paper because of perceived risk.
I need some help from the more knowledgeable people here to develop this scenario. Does it make sense?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 14:55
panda @>(@): - This could be the test, Bonds turning down in advance of tomorrows numbers? If the HUI & XAU hold..... paradigm shift..... IMVHO of course.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 14:33
Fundy Wednesday>(Wednesday): - Steve@Perth: Get some 100% sleep.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 14:24
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - It seems as if some of the gold stocks are turning around.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 14:23
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
George S. Cole
George...Hopefully you're lurking so I have a quick question...
If the gold stocks were down on the day ( in Toronto ) but up on the XAU, and the prices of Gold and Silver were up as they are today, would you get out or stay in with your theorums. Won't hold you to it, I just want your thoughts and experience. It's really confusing when one markets up and anothers down and there's no coorelation for either/both.
Thanks in advance...
TTFN
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 14:14
vronsky Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom (6/23/97)>(Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom (6/23/97)): - CNBC-TV Financial Celebrity believes market still not seen top - but its on tippy-toes. On Gold: “...this is what a bottom looks like.” Gene Inger letter Forecast:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:52
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - An article for a bit of balance to my last posting
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970626/invest/invest5.html - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:52
panda @>(@): - Steve -- If interest rates hit a third of that level in the next four months, gold will fly. FEAR knows no price.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:39
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Heard a rumour of the following:
The stock market will crash by October ( at the latest-no surprise )
US interest rates will rise to 33% for 4 to 6 months
Australian interest rates will rise to 17% for same period
Platinum to rise further, & become the new gold ( hence correlating
with sales of gold by central banks, even during the financial crisis )
Gold price will diminish down to $127 oz, as investors will ignore it,
or is dumped on market by CB's.
Platinum will be Russia's new Reserve currency, as they don't have one.
Asian countries buying Platinum etc while they put up the smoke-screen
of Hashimoto that they are buying gold. Seems strange for Mr Jap Finance
to be making such an overt public comment, despite understanding the
background scenario. What if they were buying something else on the
quiet
Can't prove any of this, & this is hard to post, considering after
following this site for months now. The bond charts certainly indicate that interest rates will rise. However, if all of this does happen,
remember this prediction. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:35
D.A. more.funny.statistics>(more.funny.statistics): - All:
Another example of statistical legardmain can be found today over at Morgan Stanleys site ( http://www.ms.com ) . One of their economists was singing the praise of growth and low inflation in Denmark. By his reckoning CPI was due to come in around 2% for 1997. Toward the end of the column he said that one of the risks to his low inflation forecast was that the wealth creation effect caused by surging housing prices could cause excess growth. He noted that housing prices had been growing at a rate of 10% per annum since 1993.
In the US, I believe that housing costs make up something on the order of 40% of CPI. Making the great leap of faith that this is not too distant from the makeup in Denmark we are lead to the following interesting set of numbers. If housing costs are rising 10% per year then CPI increases due to housing are up 4% per year. If the CPI is growing at only 2% a year the rest of the prices in Denmark must be deflating. Since we know for sure that energy prices are up strongly over the last few years, and food prices are also up, there are some other sectors ( health, education, entertainment etc ) that must be in a deflationary spiral.
Or maybe there is just something rotten in the BLS of Denmark. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:24
Mike Sheller moving around>(moving around): - GERY: Your guess is as good as mine as to what the fundamental happening will actually be. Meantime I can only look at the technicals, like you. I'm looking for a rally soon ( what else is new? ) and see a breakout above 346 on August gold to be the key for now. That would be the sign to buy futures or calls. But I DONT expect the rally to last more than two months before gold turns down for a final weak spell into winter.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:21
panda @>(@): - Damn! I did it again! Another repost. FWIW column, if the Dow fails here, there could be trouble. There's just too much volatility here. Panic selling on a whim, then panic buying on a whim. This looks like the stuff of weak hands. Wouldn't it be a kicker if the FOMC raised rates on July 2? Keep one thing in mind, if things get too volatile, people will just walk away from the markets. It becomes too stressful to trade or invest, whatever that means nowdays....
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:11
Gery Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at>(Gerhard.Fuehring@blackbox.at): - Mike Sheller: Four or five weeks ago I did a technical analysis of the Gold ( spot ) price and got the impression, that we'll see a mayor up-move in the next future ( july, august? ) - I bought some 380-december-Calls. During the last month I was wandering what could be the trigger for that turnaround. This week I already thought the japanese are the answer - what turned out to be wrong ( so far ) . Even the 192-points-babycrash of the dow didn't help the goldprice. Now I'm looking forward ( upward ) to yours stars and hope they can help us.
From my technical point of view the move under the 340-support-level was not nice, but no big problem either, because my long-recommandation was based on the strong - and normaly very reliable - divergences between the spotprice and indicators like MACD, RSI, Williams UItimate Oscillator and some of my selfconstructed indicators.
regards
Gery, Vienna, Austria - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 13:03
panda @>(@): - Uh Oh, Hashimoto speaks again. He doesn't want the Yen 'downgraded to a local currency.' Hmmm, I wonder what he means? :-o Fourth of July is coming soon! Along with the attendant fireworks. :- ) )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 12:57
Mike Sheller I don't care if it's cloudy or brite>(I don't care if it's cloudy or brite): - A valuable demo of how astrology can be an aid in windows ( time ) and watching thru them...
Gold-Eagle's next to last edition of The Astrological Investor featured, among other predictions, SAUDI ARABIA - we are fixed on June 19, 20, 21 here as Mars conjuncts Saudi's Sun at 0 degrees Libra...Potent energies as a background to this potentially aggravating aspect for Saudi Arabia. Watch the news here. End of June features several other aspects falling into place.
Well, Saudi Arabia IS aggravated. Today's Wall Street Journal ( June 25 ) reports in the Commodities section that Saudi Arabia and Iran have announced agreement to work together to prod other OPEC members to curtail oil production with the goal of raising world oil prices by as much as $4. While this unusual alliance is quite powerful, it is expected that there will not be much of a change in attitude concerning chronic quota busting by other OPEC members.
By the way, Saturn is now at 19 Aries, conjuncting NYSE Moon. Will it finally launch silver as it did in '68? As analyzed months ago, July still promises to be HOT! - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 12:21
Westboy @bull trap>(@bull trap): - Puetz: don't get discouraged so easily. your call still is good even as we speak. until old highs are taken out, the previous top could very well be THE top. I smell bull trap
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 12:17
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - I (24 June 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - I (24 June 1997)): - JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD! ( PART - I ) . See ORACLE in Gold Digest - MUST CLICK RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:55
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - This site hard to reach. Mirror sight impossible. It must be an accident--or an arranged accident!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:55
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - This site hard to reach. Mirror sight impossible. It must be an accident--or an arranged accident!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:55
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - This site hard to reach. Mirror sight impossible. It must be an accident--or an arranged accident!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:42
Strad Master rights vs. responsibilities>(rights vs. responsibilities): - MIKE SHELLER: Just to clarify: AIDS patients who suddenly improve in their prognosis are not at all a significant contributor to bankruptsies. You correctly got the point of the story, though, that their behaviour is indicative of a general mind-set among a large segment of the populace. Me first! I deserve whatever I can wrest from anyone else. My suffering is paramount and everyone else owes me because I'm suffering. ( Never mind that the person you're stiffing with a credit scam might have equal or worse problems to deal with. ) These are ideas engendered by years of victimology propaganda and entitlement programs that have sapped people of any feelings of responsibility for their own or other's well-being. Also the radical secularization of society has contributed mightily to the problem. I'm reminded of Kennedy's famous line: Ask not what your country can do for you but what YOU can do for your country! How quaint. I too, fear the aftermath when the music finally stops.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:33
Puetz @ Yellowdog>(@ Yellowdog): - I'm having trouble again today accessing kitco. It looks like this centipede bull market may be trying to add another leg onto it. DJIA just moved above 7800 -- up 43 points. Metals are still up. Bonds are still weak. The Dollar is still under pressure.
George Cole: I can't argue with what you said too much. The big question is: Will spending by the top 1/3 consumers offset retrenchment by the bottom 1/3. That retrenchment already began in March. The top 1/3 are going to have to come around and start spending real soon to avoid a recession.
You may be right about a mid July top in stocks -- if the DJIA continues to hold above 7800 the rest of the day. The 20 bear-market warnings are still valid, the exact timing is the only thing in question now.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:24
Reify @problems ?>(@problems ?): - Having some difficulties getting through again. Patience!
Anyhow interesting day XAU up nicely, over $1.60while gold is sliding now below $340. Tune in tomorrow and see if the hero gets the girl.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:23
BillD @Mirror Site>(@Mirror Site): - BART...Would you please re-post the url for the mirror site...I am having a devil of a time getting in this morning ( and yesterday ) ...THANX...
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:22
Richard Burke richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca>(richard_burke@bc.sympatico.ca): - Yellowdog: Yes, I just got in after an hour of trying. Same problem yesterday AM. I could get into home page and data page, but not discussion page.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 11:00
yellowdog @kitco>(@kitco): - anyone having problems accessing this site again today?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 10:14
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - DJIA continues to fall -- down 40 points. XAU now up 1.00 point at 95.73. Gold up 1.10. Bonds down 11 ticks. In spite of weak durable goods orders, bonds are still selling off. Maybe lack of inflation is no longer a reason to buy bonds, maybe fear of foreign dumping is a reason to sell.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:54
2weeks Gold_guns_and_Ada>(Gold_guns_and_Ada): - Spud Master - let's talk Ada. adaman@goodsites.com
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:46
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - DJIA down 24 points this morning. XAU recovering nicely at 95.64, up .91.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:40
George S. Cole Economic Outlook>(Economic Outlook): - All:
Is the economy strong as DA argues or is it on the verge of recession as Steve Puetz asserts? I think DA has got it right. With consumer confidence at the highest level since the 1969, a booming stock market, and relatively low interest rates, the odds of a recession in the near future are minuscule UNLESS SOME KEY PARAMETERS CHANGE.
This is not to argue for a complacent attitude. Far from it. Steve Puetz is correct that many lower-end consumers are indeed living from hand to mouth and could easily be pushed over the edge if the job market softens even a little, or banks significantly tighten consumer credit standards.
Problems at the lower end have been more than offset by boom times for the top 20% and super-boom times for the top 5%. But much of the extraordinary prosperity at the top reflects huge stock market gains. The booming stock market also is boosting middle class spending. Many of these people feel much less pressure to save for retirement now that their 401Ks are doing so well.
But all this will change dramatically when stocks go into reverse. The current economic expansion depends more heavily on continued strength in the stock market than did any of its predecessors. Spending habits of the top 5% probably won't change if the market slides, but the urge to splurge among the top 20% undoubtedly will ease. Middle class baby boomers, worrying again about retirement security again, will hike savings and cut spending. As the economy slows and loan losses mount, banks will quickly hike lending standards.
So while the short-term economic outlook remains good, this could change much faster than most expect if the stock market runs into trouble. And a super-crash is not required, just a normal bear market which takes prices down 20-30% without a quick recovery will suffice quite nicely.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:34
Roebear @chocolatetown>(@chocolatetown): - panda: This is not a direct comment to your holocaust story but I talked to a swiss national yesterday and asked what he thought of the swiss revaluing gold, the holocaust payments and the euro. Also, why all the fuss about Nazi gold now over 50 years after the fact. He said that the swiss did not want to lower their standard of living by going with the euro. Their standard of living is high in Europe and they feel it would be lowered because of poorer countries with less solid currencies and economies dragging down the the more prosperous countries.
He also noted that since the swiss aren't going to play the euro game then the european union was going to give the shaft to the swiss and try and force the situation on them. This is his take on the Nazi gold in Switzerland story. He also noted that Hitler did not want to invade Switzerland because it is easy to defend/costly to conquer, Hitler figured to starve them out after he conquered the rest of Europe. So there's a view from Switzerland. He was apathetic about the swiss gold valuation, he's not a goldbug ( or gnome ) . Any other Swiss out there care to respond?
PS funny how those CB's like to hold onto all that worthless unmonetized gold! What a burden they shoulder for their citizens!: ) - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:25
Donald 105636.2252@Compuserve.com>(105636.2252@Compuserve.com): - Bill Buckler- What rates do the Japanese want us to raise? The Fed can only impact short term rates. Long term rates may follow. If long term bond rates did rise in sympathy, the Japanese will lose their shirts on their current holdings.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:20
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - Spuds - You're right - someday this war's gonna be over - thanks to CinC Klintoris. If Quadriennial Review recommendations get implemented it's gonna kill MIC even faster...
BTW, Capt Willard was only agreeing with the lunatic, Air Cavalry, surfer addict, LtCol - I love the smell of napalm in the morning played by Robert Duvall ( sorry, can't remember the character's name ) .
Also, MIC is soon to dump ADA requirements altogether.... go figure...
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:12
Puetz @ Delayed reaction>(@ Delayed reaction): - Gold up 1.50 this morning. Silver up 3.00. After rethinking Hashimoto's comments, traders may have decided to put new money into gold and silver, not US Treasury Bonds. If the metals can move just a little higher from here, the charts will look tremendous. Then watch the buyers come charging in. And watch those mega-shorts squirm, knowing their on the wrong side of the market.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 09:09
BillD BT @short lease>(BT @short lease): - I want to remind everyone that the BT has only 3 more days to make it happen...or else ...Is it BT for President ... or BT for dog-catcher
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 08:56
Spud Master Ada superior to C++>(Ada superior to C++): - D.A.: As a software engineer I can confirm your observations about the insane demand for software designers. It's quite absurd. I can't help but feel that Adam Smith's Invisible Hand is going to intervene and correct the situation - else I & my ilk shall be the masters of the Earth ( I've always wanted to own a few lawyers, maybe a dozen ) . The really intresting thing is to watch the military-industrial complex ( MIC ) being sucked dry of its competent software people by the commercial side. The MIC almost has a clue that they've had their brains removed - they are still paying trivial salaries and wondering why their turn-over rate in programmers is +30%. Why suck thin-gruel corporate prole-feed + vanishing perks when one can earn $50 - $80 an hour doing contract software? ( of course, buying gold hand over fist at the same time ; ) . Still, I have to echo Captain Willard's words from Apocalypse Now: ... some day this war's gonna be over...
Spud - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 08:28
panda @>(@): - Uh Oh, Hashimoto speaks again. He doesn't want the Yen 'downgraded to a local currency.' Hmmm, I wonder what he means? :-o Fourth of July is coming soon! Along with the attendant fireworks. :- ) )
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 08:22
panda @very interesting>(@very interesting): - I find it somewhat curious that you can't find the Nazis gold story in the Yahoo archives now. The story is still there, it's just not listed. Hmmmm, must be the Shadows again.....
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 08:16
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Morning all! Ready for our gold recovery since the ABC correction has finished. You see, it was just a matter of time, time could of told you that!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 08:04
bw us tbonds>(us tbonds): - What has occurred over the last couple of days with reguard to Japan? What I see is this. Japan said they were not happy with their reserve asset allocation. They might think of selling some us tbonds. But later said this was not to be. All the analysis says, of course it is not possible, it would be disasterous for Japan ( or any other large holder of tbonds ) . The lesson for all large buyers: Think long and hard about your purchases of us tbonds. Once you buy them they can never be sold! Us tbonds are to buy only. Japan has slowed its new purchases of tbonds. The rest of the world?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:59
panda @>(@): - Nick -- Interesting URL. IT must be the Russian's doing it! :- ) ) :- ) )
( Conspiracy joke folks... Calm down... :- ) )
Looks like the EU people want to talk to Mr. Hashimoto about his 'comments' the other day. Yes, it's looking more like Babylon5 all the time. Voorlons, The Shadows, Psi Cops... What's a person to do? ( paranoia running deeep...:- ) ) OK, enough of the bad humor!
Looks like Hashimoto has upset the apple cart. He's undone alot of the propoganda spun by the CB's just by mentioning the word 'gold'. It kind of reminds me of the movie, The Ten commandments. When the Pharo says, Let the name of Moses be struck from every ....., and then on Pharo's death bed, he breaks his own law, and speaks the name of Moses. Sort of like what Hashimoto did on Monday. :- ) )
If gold is so worthless, why are they ( CB's ) taking possesion of it? Why is every effort being made to discredit gold? It shall be interesting to watch Mr. Hashimoto's treatment about broaching the gold issue. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:55
REB na>(na): - Reify: Re Hashimoto remarks, I would postulate that Hashimoto spoke of what the Japapnese have contemplated, but not yet done. You are right that it would be dumb to telegraph their market moves in advance, and that is why there has been such an effort by the Japanese to put reverse spin on his comments. I expect the Japanese have not actually decided yet to dump treasuries and buy gold, but they sure don't want to tip their hand in advance and ruin that alternative for themselves by starting the price up before they are able to buy at the bottom.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:49
Mike Sheller more to worry 'bout than $$$$>(more to worry 'bout than $$$$): - STRAD MASTER: If the rise in bankruptcies has been significantly boosted by AIDS sufferers pulling a short-timer's scam with their credit cards, and then getting caught with a few extra years of life, then this country is in truly bad shape. Not to jump on a soap box, but this says reams ( no pun intended ) about the general morality of the population. I think the prevailing ethic is more and more a disregard for the responsibilities and integrity demanded by civilized living. I cannot help but agree with the recent poster who warned that the next financial catastrophe would not be suffered civilly by the current populace. Gonna get ugleee.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:22
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Sorry Panda here's the url
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov
Washingtons looks like it's in the hot seat.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:21
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Sorry Panda here's the url
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/quake/gldfs.cr.usgs.gov
Washingtons looks like it's in the hot seat.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:15
Nick @ Aussie>(@ Aussie): - Panda here's the latest earthquakes, seems like USA's running hot
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 07:05
George S. Cole gold stocks and gold bullion.>(gold stocks and gold bullion.): - ALL:
August gold up 50 cents this morning as dollar weakens. Gold stocks performed considerably better relative to bullion yesterday -- a positive sign. IF THIS CONTINUES for a few days the stage will be set for a decent rally.
With many gold bulls capitulating as evidenced in rising put premiums and mine closures likely to escalate if bullion drops much below $335, a long-term bottom is getting close. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 06:51
panda @talking.to.myself.again>(@talking.to.myself.again): - DJ reports a strong earthquake in western Japan, no damage reported though.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 06:47
panda @>(@): - I guess there is no comments on the Rueters story that posted last night. One last time,
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/24/z0009_1413.html - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 06:29
panda @>(@): - What's this? EBN gold up a whole Dollar? Must be a mistake.
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 05:06
Reify @Some thoughts>(@Some thoughts): - Thinking outloud;
Hashimoto- the little I know of the japanese mentality- the remarks by Mike Sheller, I believe, are the closest to what just happened, when the roof fell in. However japanese as many others are not foolish people, even though they have made mistakes, so who hasn't? What bothers me is
why would anyone go public with what he is doing, or intending to do, unless it isn't what he is about to do at all. They aren't about to sell bonds and buy gold, and upset the markets. This is just a little smack on the cheek, to make a point. Other wise why foul up the markets for yourself, you can just do the selling quietly, and get the best prices.
About Gold- my long term charts, and short term as well, look like the bottom is in place, but having been a true life long contrarian, and respecting RJ's remarks, I'm concerned. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 04:21
Reify @HUH?>(@HUH?): - EB my 21:49 was hitching on to your 12:25. Clear now?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 03:19
Willie or Wontie @the S?#t Shooter aimed @the fan>(@the S?#t Shooter aimed @the fan): - Press the button!
No! You!
Your the trigger man!
No you are!
Who says?
You did!
No I didnt!
Yes you did!
Oh get out of my way this is how its done!
Will someone SH*T in the shooter for gods sake. ( Sake that is not sake )
Oh look do I have to do everything myself!
Stand back everyone! - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 03:17
EB REIFY@21:49>(REIFY@21:49): - ? HUH
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 03:09
EB semi-demi...oh God more waxing Unperiphrastic Bombastiloquence>(semi-demi...oh God more waxing Unperiphrastic Bombastiloquence): - RJ - such a way with language. Thanks. But can you tell me who will win the third race at Los Alamitos Sunday?
AWAY!
EB - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 03:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - I recommend that everone read http://www.the-privateer.com/corresp.html if you haven't yet done so. Kind of puts things into perspective going into/through the July 4th holiday!
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 02:42
EB eschew obfuscation>(eschew obfuscation): - Gold will go down!
Gold will go up!
Oh hell...
I give up.
AWAY!
EB - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 02:34
Jack late response>(late response): -
Mike ( @ ) : In a belated comment concerning your 04:35 6/24
reply to Bernatz ; how did you ever get the idea, that
you had to be American, or better yet qualified to hack
for the US Treasury. I buy zee bonds von zee Prynees, ow
you zay 1st. - Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 02:21
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Gold up in July -- RJs comment that 'He kicked it and it didn't move' is actually better than anybody elses 'rational' for gold going lower, since NO ONE ELSE, in the whole past year, have ever provided any! It really would have been nice to have read ANY rational behind their thinking! RJ, is it a timing thing, a price thing, or both? Once it gets there, what in your opinion will begin to make it reverse trend? In other words, if it won't do it this year, what makes next year different?
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 00:17
NJ Mirror Site>(Mirror Site): - Bart : Strad Master is correct the mirror site does not work .This is what I have as the url. http://207.221.35.108/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi
- Date: Wed Jun 25 1997 00:16
Gold up in July @veteran wealth builder>(@veteran wealth builder): - RJ @ The ramblings of a lunatic.
No, Rj, you are completely wrong. Gold will rise and violenty so. Not next year, but next month! Sorry you're gonna miss out. Hope you develop a new outlook on gold quickly. I'm sure you won't want to appear completely ignorant when everyone is making a fortune and your not.
