- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:54
Strad Master Bankruptsies>(Bankruptsies): - D.A.: Regarding your point about the rise in bankruptsies being attributable to the easy way out mentality I recall a lengthy article in the Los Angeles Times a few months back about the big trouble facing many AIDS sufferers. It seems that a lot of them had decided that since there was no hope for them anyway, they may as well get a bunch of credit cards and max them all out on the assumption that they'd be dead and the creditors couldn't collect anyhow. Suddenly, the treatment with protease inhibitors gave them a new lease on life and now they are faced with massive debt that they have no intention of paying back. So they are filing for bankruptsy. IMO regardless of the sad physical predicament they are in, willfully stiffing those who extend credit is reprehensible behavior.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:53
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - As they say in the car commericial: Perception is not always reality.
What is real is that the library is closing very shortly. Good night! : ) - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:46
Surveyor reily@harborside.com>(reily@harborside.com): - Panda, re: your 08:10. You may enjoy an article by Bob Buran where he discusses a lawsuit over a bad fill that he won. http://www.bobburan.com/3Min.htm
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:38
Strad Master Reflective site>(Reflective site): - BART: I bookmarked the mirror site URL the last time you posted it and went directly to it today when I couldn't get in via the front door. Alas, it didn't work either. Either I've got it wrong or it doesn't work as you expect. In fact, I just tried it now to see if I could post it for your review, and it still doesn't work. Perhaps you might post it one more time. Thanks.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:38
RJ Ersatz - Pseudo - Semi - Demi-Gods>(Ersatz - Pseudo - Semi - Demi-Gods): -
Reading recent posts: I must admit to some amusement at the Hashimoto remarks which, when first heard, I posited a misstatement or retraction to follow hard on the heels by. There seemed a almost desperate grab at these remarks as if Hashimoto had suddenly assumed donut shape, and thus filled with air, tossed to those foundering in the briny morass that wears the unrecognizable face of gold today.
Those that love gold, sometimes are willing to overlook her shortcomings and occasional infidelities as long as she comes home the next morning, unwilling to look a whore in the eye and call her what she is, unfaithful, unreliable, and definitely unfit introduce to mom and dad. But, she is what she is and, like the scorpion who stung the frog, just acting according to her nature. She is a duplicitous fornicator, albeit a lazy lass who, lacking innate spirit or gumption, will only rise to dress when the broken mattress beneath her goes, spprrooooiiiiiinnnnngg.
It seems as some view gold with the same eyes that are seeing Virgin Marys everywhere; in windows, water stains, and street signs; it might only be a water stain, but if we believe, we might be blessed. Some have a higher threshold, requiring more than mere apparitions in which to place their dreams.
Gold will go down before it goes up. This is not the bottom, nor are we near the bottom. $320 - 300 is possible, and possibly likely this year. Silver will suffer under the weight but will make valiant and modestly profitable quests to the higher grounds. Platinum will rise to above $500 this year, by August end or not at all. If those that have massaged this market so well recently would have their way, a quick spike to $600 is not out of the question. The ride on palladium is not over but only fit for those who poke both bears and bulls with sharp sticks, and will accept the consequences of their own actions. Palladium is for stalwart souls with a touch of lunacy, the light sleeper or faint of heart are better advised to stand down.
Eldorado once asked me how I knew that gold would be dead this year, to which I resounded, I kicked it, and it didn’t move. Please bear my former response and bid, achieve me, and then sell my bones. Good God, why should it mock poor fellows thus?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:30
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com): - I was informed that a major dataline carrier in Phoenix was down and brought all the ISPs with them.
If you took note of the URL our mirrored site is immune to the local disasters in Phoenix. You can go there when the door here gets jammed. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:25
Tortfeasor Joke of the evening>(Joke of the evening): - Since this site often digresses to discuss bureaucracy and government I submit the following pithy offering before I seek the comfort of my bed and the dream of better markets tomorrow. Panda, I hope that we can get better brokers. It sounds like you are aflicted like I have been with marginal low lives who masquerade as mild mannered brokers.
The LAPD, The FBI, and the CIA are all trying to prove that they are the best at apprehending criminals. The President decides to give them a test. He releases rabbit into a forest and has each of them try to catch it.
The CIA goes in. They place animal informants throughout the forest. They
question all plant and mineral witnesses. After three months of extensive
investigations they conclude that rabbits do not exist.
Then the FBI goes in. After two weeks with no leads they burn the forest,
killing everything in it, including the rabbit, and they make no apologies. The rabbit had it coming.
Then the LAPD goes in. They come out two hours later with a badly beaten
raccoon. The raccoon is yelling: Okay! Okay! I'm a rabbit! I'm a rabbit! - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:24
D.A. last.word>(last.word): - Puetz:
Because its past my bedtime I'll take the last shot. Hope you don't mind that its a cheap one.
Might I point out that your recession hypothesis is supported by none other than Business Week ( who are bullish on bonds ) and my alltime favorite reverse indicator Allan Sinai.
Bon Soir,
D.A. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:20
David Blair Macrory goldfevr@pacbell.net>(goldfevr@pacbell.net): - An increasing number of this market-student's pieces of the puzzle, suggest that gold & silver are very likely completing their bottoming-formation. A major, or primary trend-reversal, with potentially explosive upside potential -- both for the precious metals, and for gold & silver mining stocks -- may be imminent, in this holiday period.
#1. Commitment of Traders patterns.
#2. Numerous divergences/technical indicators: oscillators, price and volume relationships.
#3. Gold currently hitting new lows, for this trading period; while
silver is giving increasing clues that it will likely not confirm.
In other words, silver prices will likely not hit new lows, versus gold's
recent/current new lows. And, in the recent/current trading period, silver prices will very likely not drop below silver's own recent-past lows of early January, and late April, ( - while gold has/is ) .
#4. Increasing volatility, and uncertainty, in other investment markets.
There is no guarantee or 'promise', stated, or suggested, in these
comments; they are only my personal opinions. As such, these
observations are for the sake of joining-in, for mutual sharing, and/or for educational purposes. They are not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation, to buy or sell any particular investments.
Sincerely,
David Blair Macrory
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:16
D.A. local.anecdotal.evidence>(local.anecdotal.evidence): - Puetz:
I realize this is a fairly unscientific survey, but being an ex-systems wacker I sometimes glance through the help wanted section of the Sunday New York Times. The number of columns of positions for 'programmers' was at an all time high a few weeks back. The number of job listing is something on the order of 4x what it was at the bottom of the last recession. With the enormous growth in real income, consumers are in fine shape.
The rise in bankruptcies I believe is more closely linked to the easy way out mentality and people actively pursuing it as a strategy. I know of people who were marginally in debt but figured what the hell and racked up big credit card numbers knowing that they would just fold their tent. People ultimately learn how to exploit the rules and do so. Monetary conditions are going to have to get a lot tighter before this economy caves in. With the real likelyhood of a declining dollar because of relatively accelerating growth by our trading partners this will just add a little more fuel to the fire. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:08
Puetz @ clarification>(@ clarification): - The bottom 1/3 are in a spending recession ( they still have jobs ) , but retailers aren't making sales.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:06
Puetz @ Recession>(@ Recession): - D.A.: The developing economic down-turn is all about finances. It has nothing to do with excessive inventories. In the past, the Fed had to withhold credit from the banking system to keep the economy from over-heating.
This time around, the banks themselves have been the bad guys. The rising bankruptcy rate has forced banks to be a lot tougher in giving credit than they have been used to. An easy Fed does not necessarily imply easy bank lending. True, banks have been easy in commercial lending and in making mortgage loans, but they have gotten much tougher on credit-card loans. Because of this, the weakest 1/3 of consumers are already in recession. This can be a fairly powerful counterweight against the upper 2/3. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:01
scotty @yikes!>(@yikes!): - The URL is correct for the Japanese Spin Doctors. And, they even go on to talk about gold being neutral.......
http://www.asiatimes.com/97/06/25/25069701.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 23:00
ark saltedcore@in.camera>(saltedcore@in.camera): - ANYONE: What happened to ABX? What is the bad news?
I can't find a personnel department anywhere. Suddendly,
the department dissappeared and was replaced by something
called human resources. I always thought one dug resourses
out of the ground or cut from a forest. What mysterious
cabal changed the name and accomplished it all at once. And,
right afterwards downsizing began in earnest. A mystery yet]
to be solved. Forces are lurking about that only a few can
fanthom := }} - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:57
Puetz @ the Yen rallies, the Dollar falls>(@ the Yen rallies, the Dollar falls): - In light of recent developments, it will be interesting to see how the traders and the markets react to the persistant strength in the Japanese Yen. In tonights trading, the Yen has continued to push higher. The 110 Yen-to-Dollar level seems certain to be tested.
If the Dollar falls below 110 Yen: Will Hashimoto back down and say he really doesn't care if the Dollar stabilizes? How will Greenspan and the Fed Board react on July 2nd? Will currency traders jump on the trend ( as they so often do ) , and sell more dollars against the Yen? How will Wall Street react? Could a negative reaction on Wall Street snow-ball into the currency markets -- thus creating a chain-reaction of panics?
The next few days and weeks will tell. Just by the technical action in the charts themselves, I suspect the Dollar will break below 110 Yen. That could be just about the time Greenspan and Co. meet to discuss monetary policy. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:56
EB Hashimoto.testing.the.waters>(Hashimoto.testing.the.waters): - It was said in this group that the Japanese are not impetuos. This seemed a bit rash for the Hashmeister. Did the Hashman say what he said to see what kind of response he would get?
( not to beat this horse, again! )
AWAY!
EB - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:55
Las Cristinas Update interesting stuff>(interesting stuff): - Caracas: Saturday, June 21, 1997 -- News from a VHeadline/VENews source in London says that
( Canadian ) Crystallex International Corporation shares could soar to anything between $50-$63
during the next week ahead of an Annual General Meeting of the company to be held in Vancouver
next Friday ( June 27 ) .
Reserve estimates at Crystallex's Las Cristinas 4 & 6 concessions at KM88 in Venezuela are under
revision and an expected announcement paralleling -- if not exceeding -- Gold Reserve's
reassessment is seen as imminent.
Crystallex International's president Marc Oppenheimer and Vip Richard Marshall have gone to
ground ( supposedly in New Jersey ) as details leak that a major international hedgefund has been
buying Crystallex ( KRY ) stock like there's no tomorrow. It's said to be approaching a critical 9.95%
of the company's stock purchased on the open market, but it's known that the buyers have been
trying to work a behind-the-scenes deal to get their hands on some $20 million-worth more shares
without running foul of mandatory disclosure regulations.
Meanwhile, here in Venezuela there's concealed activity as Economic Coordination and Planning
( Cordiplan ) Minister Teodoro Petkoff mulls over the past week's meeting with Crystallex lawyers in
which it was made patently clear that the Canadian company holds all the cards. Sources close to the
Minister say he's working out the best way to get rid of Venezuelan Guyana Corporation ( CVG )
president Elias Nadim Ynaty without upsetting an applecart implied in the upcoming privatization
sell-off of state-owned Siderurigca de Orinoco ( SIDOR ) .
Ynaty's been a fly-in-the-soup to all concerned recently and has caused discontent at the Accion
Democratica ( AD ) Central Executive Committee over unabashed statements that appear to place
him as an official spokesman for AD ... a major faux pas which AD leaders have not been tardy to
very publicly point out.
Behind the scenes, Minister Petkoff has promoted the possibility of pulling CVG out of Las Cristinas
where it holds a 30% joint venture partnership with ( Canadian ) Placer Dome. But the reality is that
former-guerrilla Petkoff -- who is on a personal crusade to clean up Venezuela's corruption-ridden
bureaucracy -- would rather see Placer Dome take a hike after the Supreme Court of Justice ( CSJ )
hands down its rubber-stamp ruling projected for early next week.
Placer Dome ( despite its protests of innocence ) is said to have been very much aware of Crystallex's
unequivocal rights to the Las Cristinas 4 & 6 concessions at a very early stage of the proceedings.
They'd been made patently aware of the situation by their Venezuelan head of operations Brooke
MacDonald, who was pulled out to Costa Rica when the going began to get rough. Although the
pull-out may have been mutual MacDonald decided himself to jump ship completely after only a
few days in San Jose whereupon he returned to Vancouver.
CVG Ynaty's been frantically pushing bells in Vancouver recently too, but his credibility has been
going through Canadian topsoil just as quickly as it already has on home base.
Energy & Mines Minister Erwin Arrieta is increasingly seeing Ynaty as an embarrassment and Placer
Dome has distanced itself with the speed of light from Ynaty's OTT claim that CVG's going to sue
Crystallex...
Nevertheless, the next six days to Vancouver should be pretty exciting. Drilling results and assay
reports are under lock and key but according to VHeadline/VENews usually reliable source in the
City, we're probably talking in excess of $1.5 billion...
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:55
Scotty scotty@codenet.net>(scotty@codenet.net): - Hi again everyone!! Whew! What was that 5 hour gap all about? You would think the DJIA had a 300 point swing in two days or sumthin.... Maybe that was just a dress rehersal for what it will be like when we sell out at $600 and all go on vacation at once!
Better late than never.....here's the backpeddling the Japanese are doing:
http://www.asiatimes.com/97/06/25/25069701.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:55
panda @>(@): - You know, it's a funny thing. Ever since Hashimoto's comment on the T-Bond/gold thing, all that I hear on talk radio is discussion about the slow depreciation of the Dollar over the decades. I think Hashimoto's comment has got many people thinking, that is those who heard it! Indeed, the dike/dam does have a few leaks in it! Now, where is the little boy to stick his fingers in the holes? AG? RR? BC? :- ) )
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:53
D.A. recession?>(recession?): - Puetz:
This would be the oddest recession ever. Consumer confidence is at an all time high. Inventory to sales ratio at an all time low. Stock market going balistic, money growth accelerating and unemployment at 20 year low. Europe and Japan finally having accelerating growth which means more exports for US. Classically, recessions have occured after large inventory buildups and subsequent rate hikes. I could see a recession induced by Fed tightening, but their 25 basis point tweak of a few months back ain't going to do the job. Economies generally do not roll over of their own accord. They have to be pushed. Since the politicians have their hands around the throats of the Central bankers this expansion is going to blow up. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:47
panda @DOW>(@DOW): - Byron -- Can you say, MANIC? Is this indicative of topping action? ( hint; maybe! ) Is there fear? NO. This bubble will end like all other bubbles have in the past. The only problem is the timing!
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:44
EB Cherokee-you see things...>(Cherokee-you see things...): - Your vision astonishes me. Your call on Copper was fanTASTIC! Thanks. We made a pretty penny...so to speak.
I look forward to your savory posts and I drink them down like nectar from the gods.
YOU THE MAN!
AWAY!
EB - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:44
panda @>(@): - Tanken survey, things are good.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/24/z0009_1576.html - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:40
Predictor(to DA) @>(@): - DA: Money in equities comment. It is all about window dressing and peer pressure ( what people want to hear ) . July will be a dangerous month for the markets IMO.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:39
Byron @ On A Roll:>(@ On A Roll:): - Yesterday following the Prime Minister's remarks, the Dow went dow ( n ) 195. Today it was up 150+. I quess you can call that in-your-face diplomacy. ; )
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:39
panda @>(@): - Puetz -- The dam has a crack in it. The water flowing throught the crack is erroding more of the dam. Now more water at higher volume is flowing through a bigger fissure, thus futher enlarging the fissure. At some some point the dam succombs to structural weakness and collapses, releasing a flood.
Funny how the Central Bankers wound up with the Nazis gold isn't it? They keep the gold and set up a fund for the survivors. What a way to get your hands on more gold. The reason? Maybe to dump it on the market or, they need it because they're not going to get their loaned out gold back! What a world! :- ( - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:35
Byron @ Hear ye, hear ye:>(@ Hear ye, hear ye:): - Speed: Globex overnight quotes at http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/flash.cgi
You need to scroll down to the bottom and click on Globex Flash Page. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:28
Speed @yawn>(@yawn): - Byron: Where do you get Globex quotes? I have EBN and DBC and CNNFN. I agree, it's been one L of a week already. Am taking delivery on some coins this week. The prices are right!
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:26
Puetz @ Glad to see Kitco up and running again>(@ Glad to see Kitco up and running again): - ALL: There's quite a difference of opinion about what Hashimoto meant by his speech yesterday. After reading all of the Kitco comments and news releases, it seems that Hashimoto wants a stable US Dollar in the 110 area. Japan must think 127 is too high for the Dollar, 80 is too low.
If that's the case, an the Dollar does fall below 110, then there will be great pressure on the FOMC to raise interst rates next week.
How will the Dollar and the markets respond to a hike in interst rates?
I believe the US economy is already in a recession. If not, it's very close to one. Retail sales are fallin, inventories are rising.
Ironically, in today's world of global fiat currencies, when an economy weakens, currency traders usually respond initially by selling the currency of that country. Currency traders will probably be shocked if the Fed raises interest rates next week. Fears of recession will likely be increased. Instead of helping the Dollar, a hike in interest rates will likely intensify a Dollar sell-off. Such a move will back-fire.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I agree with those who say that Hashimoto lit the fuse to a bomb. While most say, Look, nothing has exploded! Others are likely to notice that the fuse is still burning, and they will likely run for cover.
Hashimoto's comments are very likely one of those comments that exert a very powerful force on the markets -- but, they only do so with a delayed reaction. They next few days and weeks should show just how powerful the reaction is. Is still believe the massive short position in gold has to be extremely nervous. I still look for gold and silver to rally sharply during the next few weeks.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:25
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Sure sucks when you buy gold when its bottoming. But have faith, it will go up don't worry! Most get in the action once the shuttle leaves the launch pad, so just think countdown has started and you have a window seat. I think gold and XAU has corrected for its ABC bottom now, so expect gold to rise over the next few weeks after farting about abit this week. If you havn't bought your ticket, now is a good time!
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:24
D.A. a.few.thoughts>(a.few.thoughts): - All:
Things are getting wierder by the day. Just when one thought that the stock market couldn't get any more crazy we have the last two days. Coming as it does in the face of Steve Puetz's 20 reasons for decline, it looks like we may be in the very final stages of the blowoff. If we have another strong day tomorrow, we will venture in on Thursday from the short side. The last time we messed around on the shortside was at 750 on the SP. Its now 900. Since we are at the end of quarter, I assume that investment committees are begining their deliberations. How someone with discretionary authority over funds can have them invested in equities is beyond me.
In the gold market it is interesting to note that put option premiums have been climbing of late and are now greater that call option premiums. This is something which has not happened in many moons. It is suggestive of capitulation. This structural change, absent of any real change in price is compelling.
With only a few days to go before the Hong Kong turnover, it is worthwile to mention an article in the FT today about the explosion in the HK real estate market. With such a radical political change coming, I wonder just how safe the housing market and by association the HK stock market is.
Someone posted today that they thought that the reason for Hashimoto's statement was that they were trying to get the U.S. to raise rates so that they too could raise rates. I think this is probably quite close to the mark. The Tanken survey is released today in Japan ( probably out by now as the Yen is up 70 ticks on the Globex ) . The government obviously has a heads up and it would appear that the survey is going to come in on the strong side. This would push the BOJ to begin the process of reigning in their expansive monetary policy. This of course would lead to a strengthening of the Yen which is not something they are wild about. One way for them to keep the Yen down would be to crank up the presses ( or hit the computer keys ) and then go out and purchase physical assets with the printed Yen. Gold of course fits well in the physical asset framework.
Speaking of money supply, German M1 now growing at a rate of better than 12% per annum over the last 6 months. M1 usually has a tight correlation with GDP growth. This combined with jumps in industrial production point towards a rebound in core European growth. For those looking for a deflationary collapse, it ain't going to happen until rates get fired up due to excessive growth.
We still have not gotten a buy signal from our system on gold, but the indicators are improving. I've looked back, and this commodity has set the record for longest period of time without a buy signal over the last ten years.
With the end of quarter approaching I'll bet we start to get some news on mine closures. At $340 a lot of folks are bleeding.
Our lastest attempt at shorting the Italian bond market is meeting with failure. The spread we put on at DTB's 50 basis points over US treasuries is now down near 40 basis points. We will scale into this position as the spread narrows. Who knows, maybe Lira will become the worlds reserve currency.
On EMU, interesting sidebar in the FT on 'German intransigence' with regard to allowing Italy or Spain into EMU. The markets however do not seem to notice as the convergence trade keeps on rolling.
Looks like Cocoa could be on the way to being next on the list of commodities that experiences rational exuberance. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:23
Predictor @>(@): - Reminder: On stocks: I still stand by my prediction of Dow 8000 by month's end. July will be down month ( also for metals ... reaching the end of the bear market for metals ) . August Up. Followed by down period.
Metals begin their bull market August timeframe ( solid climb through next March ) . S&P should hit 900 by month's end ( obviously ) and Nasdaq has a decent shot at 1500. Remember, this is all the Predictor's opinion. White Metals will probably outperformed Gold ( gold may approach $460 by next March ... the only reason it will hit those levels is short covering ... fundamentals are better for the white metals.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:23
panda @>(@): - Now that we're back and running here! I caught this interesting little story about Nazis gold. Guess what guys/ gals? You know who going to get it? That right! The CBs. What a surprise! NOT!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/24/z0009_1413.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:21
Byron @ No Spell ckeck>(@ No Spell ckeck): - Speed: Sorry about the letter l. It's already been a l of a week.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:19
EB Whoops!>(Whoops!): - This should be better. It's that time again -
http://www.trade-futures.com/reports.html - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:08
Speed Globlex?>(Globlex?): - EBN Gold up .40 and rising. EBN Yen to dollar at 113.56 and falling.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 22:00
Este looks like Kitco is working again >(looks like Kitco is working again ): - EB: thx for your nice comment.
Mooney: what happened to the enlightenment from our common friend Louis Seize? Did Marie Antoinette also have something to say? You must know that she was as good as her husband; a fine lady indeed. Official history has misrepresented and lied about her too, as it has in the case of other famous people. Remember Lucrezia Borgia? She turned out to be a saintly woman. Never poisoned anybody and was a wonderful wife, mother and pious woman.
What about the much maligned Ching Dowager Empress Tzu Hsi that British propaganda portrayed as evil and guilty, among other things, to have raided the Treasury to build the Summer Palace. She also turned out to be
quite decent and committed none of the alleged crimes.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:58
Byron @ Whoa Nellie:>(@ Whoa Nellie:): - The overnight Globlex quotes shows Japanese Yen at +100.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:55
vronsky Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom (6/23/97)>(Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom (6/23/97)): - CNBC Financial Celebrity believes market still not seen top - but its on tippy-toes. On Gold: “...this is what a bottom looks like.” Gene Inger letter Forecast:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:49
Reify @sitcom.co.il>(@sitcom.co.il): - GOLFERS- have noticed from several comments, that we have some avid golfers out there. As we can only play on one course here, the country being small and all, I want to tell all, that it's a nice course, sandy rough of course, buit on dunes, and this year, as every four, ther's a Maccabia tournement. But if any out there have contacts with some world class Pros and could arrange something please contact me, and I'll see what I can do.
I'm not a sandbagin 10 handicapper! - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:48
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - If Japan is involved in anything more than posturing then the buying of gold and the reduction of US debt held is probably underway. As has been mentioned elsewhere it is difficult to see why Japan with all its obvious wisdom would sell off the worlds current equivalent of gold and buy a commodity in multi year decline. Japan is one of the most dependent countries on the globe. It has more people than most of us can imagine stashed in a very small land mass and they have virtually no natural resources and must import almost everything including food. If they are hurting so much that they are willing to risk upsetting the financial status quo then it has been a very well kept secret and still is.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:48
Byron @ Wondering:>(@ Wondering:): - I recall that Mr. Greenspan's irrational exhuberance speech also had ( was it one day ) an effect on the markets. Buy how long did that last? Why should things be different for Mr. Hashimoto's comments of yesterday. Will the markets remember a week from now? No, I think I'll stay with the technicals and charts.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:43
LUCAN A.D. 39-68 @Newton better stop stealing my quotes>(@Newton better stop stealing my quotes): - Pigmies placed on the shoulders of giants see more than the giants themselves.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:39
LX Note this>(Note this): - Article for perusal: http://www.the-privateer.com/corresp.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:38
Paul Smith fuji@idirect.com>(fuji@idirect.com): - Re: Bill Buckler's comments... Mr Hashimoto's remarks are a clear ultimatum to Mr Greenspan and the Fed: Raise U.S. rates at this FOMC meeting - OR ELSE! I agree with you entirely but is Greenspan listening ? Can Greenspan raise rates - there is a lot of pressure on him not to. Does anyone really think there will be a rate hike next week ? I wonder. Nothing is going the way it should.
I'm a goldbug but when I see that purchasing Compaq shares 12 months ago would have TRIPLED my money, what am I doing chasing gold and buying puts on the S & P
Anyone any comments ?
Paul
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:35
Byron @ Last Posting Before Blackout:>(@ Last Posting Before Blackout:): - cherokee: your's was the last post before the blackout. Truly a powerful post. : )
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:33
RT @silver rocket launch countdown?>(@silver rocket launch countdown?): - Silver is setting itself up for a nice move, IMHO. Looking at the relative strength chart can sometime clear up some things in periods of congestion like we have had the last few weeks. I have a 14 day relative strength index chart dating back several months. Yesterday the metal broke out above a downtrend line connecting tops from mid Feb, early March, and late May. Today's action was a typical pullback to the original downtrend line. BTW, I have revised my July target price from 5.90 to 6.30 by the 22nd. Happy trading to all!
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:33
vronsky Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - I (24 June 1997)>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Part - I (24 June 1997)): - JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD! ( PART - I ) . See ORACLE in Gold Digest - MUST CLICK RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:29
Byron @ In The Void:>(@ In The Void:): - Does anyone know where I can pick up a I survived 5 hours without Kitco tee shirt.?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:29
Reify @awake>(@awake): - All especially Bart,
All seems ok again, had trouble the last 24 hrs or so accessing, don't know where the trouble was.
anyway the charts are looking good to me, and today we should see some happy faces, by next week more smiles, etc. etc.
Was that a short term prediction? Careful y'all, I'm not always right short term. Where's Glenn, or RJ? HELP - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:28
Speed @kitco alone>(@kitco alone): - EBN Gold up .30 and rising. The following is a public service announcement:
An ONZA is any silver coin ( Mexican ) that weighs 31.103 grams regardless of its alloy. The modern so-called Libertads are onzas of pure silver.
The 1996 changed design is also issued in both mint ( Bullion ) and Proof
versions in 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2 and 5 ounces.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:18
Speed @home>(@home): - Bart: Terrorists? Feds? Floods? What happened?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:17
D.A. lights.on>(lights.on): - All:
Where has everyone been? Did gold go to 0 today? - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 21:15
Speed @keep on knocking!>(@keep on knocking!): - Where is everybody?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 14:36
cherokee @council-of-elders>(@council-of-elders): - the ill winds of confusion are blowing across
the vast paper tundra. the ptarmagin is even exposed!
the many giants ( DA, peutz ) who proffer their accurate
prognostications help to create buffers against the
whip-sawing knee-jerk reaction that seems to drive
markets of late. thanks------for seeing.
for steve peutz and DA---
if i have seen farther than others, it is because i have stood on
the shoulders of giants. ------ isaac newton-------
cherokee!; ) climber-of-the-green-bean-vine. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 14:19
vronsky IS GOLD DEAD?>(IS GOLD DEAD?): - In the light of gold’s sickly performance for many month’s, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metal’s history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/gold_dead.html
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 14:10
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): -
If there truely is a group in the Far East attempting to corner the gold market, their major concern is possible selling by the central banks. Could Mr. Hashimoto's comments eased that concern of central bank selling. Maybe the comments were than about currency stability. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 14:00
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - APOLOGIES: It IS time I hit the sack...
I wonder if Business Week is a propaganda outfit for you know who
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/26/b353359.htm
Are Bonds ready to pick up steam? Maybe Ian A. MacKinnon from Vanguard's Bond Fund ( $93 BILLION ) has been reading Panda's charts
Clever bloke... ( Whats a few billion anyway ) - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:58
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - I wonder if Business Week is a propaganda outfit for you know who
http://www.businessweek.com/1997/26/b353359.htm
Are Bonds ready to pick up steam? Maybe Ian A. MacKinnon from Vanguard's Bond Fund ( $93 million ) has been reading Panda's charts
Clever bloke... - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:45
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - So far, this 'leg' up isn't much of that. Now currently testing 340 ( Aug ) area once again. Not particularly good, since it couldn't even test previous close! Breakdown below 339.8 probably will not bode well for it IMHO.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:45
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Australia survived Hashimoto better than the US.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970625/market/markets1.html
A thunderstorm is brewing, so time to turn the PC off & hit the sack.
Remember, go back & look at Panda's bond charts. Also, have a look at
the article on Bonds in Business Week ( now out ) Are Bonds ready to
pick up steam?. I may post URL in a few minutes.... - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:42
Richard Burke Gone Fishing?>(Gone Fishing?): - It looks like everyone has gone fishing this morning.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:39
APH Crawford>(Crawford): - Arch Crawford was just on the local tube, he's looking for an explosive move up in the metals into a top date, the middle of next month.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:19
Richard Burke gcq7 Shoulders>(gcq7 Shoulders): - GCQ7 just completed second set of slightly higher shoulders and is on upturn again. What is the TA for this pattern - more bullish than one set?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 13:15
GFD :D>(:D): - Panda!: Do brokers trade against their clients?! In OPTIONS LOL!!! This reminds me of a story from a friend who was a big trader in the early 80's. It turns out that years later he ran into an ex floor trader who knew him by name!!! So much for chinese walls, confidentiality etc.
I always assume that unless I am dealing with a very lean and efficient discount broker who simply does not have the time to screw his customers that when I trade that: a. ) I will be bucketed; b. ) by my broker; c. ) by my brokers trading desk ( ahem - *matching* customer orders - much more efficient for the customers that way you know.. ) d. ) by my brokers floor traders and e. ) most importantly of all by the market makers - if they ever get their hands on my raped and bleeding order....
I have taken the view that taking positional plays in long dated options is the only way to play the option game. Maybe someone else may wish to comment about really positive experiences to balance things... ( or at least provide a story more amazing that crashed UFO's... ) - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 12:53
ACW Famous Historic Paradigm Shift Denials>(Famous Historic Paradigm Shift Denials): - To All:
The following Paradigm Shifts were greeted with these denials or expectancies.
Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. --Popular
Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. --Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year. --The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
But what ... is it good for? --Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. --Ken
Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as
a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.
--Western Union internal memo, 1876.
The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would
pay for a message sent to nobody in particular? --David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better
than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible. --A Yale University management
professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight
delivery service. ( Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp. )
Who the hell wants to *hear* actors talk? --H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper. --Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With The Wind.
A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say
America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.
--Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies.
We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out. --Decca
Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. --Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The
literature was full of examples that said you can't do this. --Spencer
Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M Post-It
Notepads.
So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.' --Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.
Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction
and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.--1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work.
You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of
your muscles? It can't be done. It's just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of
weight training. --Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the unsolvable
problem by inventing Nautilus.
Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy. --Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.
Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. --Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value. --Marechal
Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
Everything that can be invented has been invented. --Charles H. Duell,
Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction. --Pierre Pachet,
Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the
intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon. --Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.
640K ought to be enough for anybody. -- Bill Gates, 1981
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 12:49
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - Looks like time for next leg up. We'll see how it gets treated.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 12:25
EB @ Hashimoto.golf>(@ Hashimoto.golf): - I bet Hashmeister plays a little stick...probably a sandbaggin' 10 handicap.
AWAY!
EB - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 10:24
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
Mooney:
What with Panda haveing broker problems etc., it brings to mind that you were going to talk to your broker about the excess charges you had to pay that you mentioned here. Did you get any resolution to that situation to your benefit?
TTFN - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 09:44
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
To actually hear the spin on CNBC htis morning from the analysists is beyond debatable points.
It's only 250 billion of bonds and not that important
The market swing was not unusual
It was only a 2+% drop
Market action was orderly and not unusual .....
Hashimoto was just saber rattling
It goes on and on.... Sounds like whistling past the graveyard to me....
This was the first crack in the dam. One of the principle people in this world actually said outloud, Be nice or else. The major question in my mind is : How long will it now take for the other conspirators to leave the sinking ship. Someone just yelled Get your life jackets ... women and children first? Not in this world!
They don't have to sell .... just not buy anymore. It will have the same effect. Rates will have to rise and that will kill this market in stocks. Earnings are coming out lower than expectations and everyone has profits to guard. Where will the money ( inflation ) then go? New cars? Boats? I see inflation here! BONDS? Not with the Japanese ready to sell off if someone isn't nice to him! Where?
The statements that selling the bonds will hurt Japan more than the USA is streaching it. To say that the buying of Gold would hurt more than the continuance of receiving even more worthless paper is strange.
Does anyone really think the Japanese will be the last ones to leave the ship? Human nature dictates otherwise. From this point on, Gold has value, bonds are cooperative efforts BUT the crack cannot be plastered over with rhetoric. Japan and China, with a lot of Gold, must worry the hell out of those who think they have control at the moment!
July 2 will be more than interesting !
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 09:30
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley): - A few months ago , I stated that Japan could bring the U.S to their knee's. D.A and others didn't believe this was possible because of the all mighty US DOLLAR. But when you look at how much worthless U.S paper
Japan holds , compared to other countries , this certainly can influence
the situation.
Now what will probably happen, is that the U.S will threaten Japan and other countries. YOU MUST HOLD OUR DEBT!!! or else.
Who is the Dictator? Billy? - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 09:23
George S. Cole Hashimoto>(Hashimoto): - NJ: You are correct. Hashimoto did not retract his statement. But senior aides said that his remarks had been misinterpreted.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:57
MoreGold Re-hash>(Re-hash): - US markets see Hashimoto remarks as veiled threats
By Isabelle Clary
NEW YORK, June 23 ( Reuter ) - U.S. financial markets perceived Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's latest call for U.S.-Japan foreign exchange cooperation as ``a veiled threat,'' analysts said on Monday.
``It's a veiled threat, a reminder that Japan cannot carry the burden alone, that the United States cannot wash its hands of its responsibility toward the dollar,'' said Chris Turner, director of research at the advisory firm I.D.E.A.
Some confusion surrounded Hashimoto's remarks, delivered in Japanese in a question-and-answer session in New York.
``In the past, we were tempted to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold when I was involved in car negotiations with ( then U.S. Trade Representative ) Mickey Kantor and when the U.S. was not interested in the dollar, a world key currency, when it was fluctuating wildly,'' Hashimoto, a former trade minister, said.
``So please cooperate with us to stablize exchange rates in order to prevent us from being tempted to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold,'' Hashimoto added.
The comments forced the Dow Jones industrial average down 192.25 points for its second-largest point decline in history.
Dollar/yen extended its losses on the comments, testing support at 114.45 late on Monday in New York, where it had opened at 115.30/40.
Also, the 30-year Treasury bond fell 17/32 to 98 31/32, yielding 6.70 percent, while the COMEX August gold contract gained $1.70 to $341.00 an ounce.
Traders said Hashimoto's comments caught U.S. markets by surprise since they came right after the just-ended Denver, Colo., summit that offered no fresh insight about an eventual foreign exchange cooperation among the Group of Seven leading industrial nations.
``Hashimoto's comments were seen as a response to last week's rumors, coming from a variety of sources, that the dollar/yen policy will be a Japanese story if the U.S.-Japan trade surplus becomes a problem,'' Turner said.
In the past, foreign exchange markets have been prompt to sell dollar/yen on the view the United States would let its currency drift lower to help cap the trade gap with Japan.
``If anything, Hashimoto's comments show there was no new ( foreign exchange ) agreement at the G7,'' Turned stressed.
``Hashimoto's story today is basically your response to Washington,'' Turner added.
If Japan, a huge holder of U.S. government securities, were to start selling Treasuries, this would pressure the dollar. It would also force U.S. market rates higher, making it more costly for the United States to finance its large current account deficit.
``Japan does not want the yen to break below 110.00. It's a warning to Washington as Hashimoto drew a close parallel with the 1994-95 trade talks,'' Turner also noted.
Dollar/yen set a cycle high at 127.47 on May 1 only to weaken anew, setting a recent low of 110.62 on June 11.
MMS International senior analyst John Krey agreed with Turner's assessment.
``I don't think there was any special agreement on foreign exchange at the G7, except to reaffirm their intention regarding relatively stable foreign exchange,'' Krey said.
``This is more political posturing. It can be interpreted as a veiled threat in the event we could not come to some deal about trade,'' added Krey who stressed that Japan ``essentially is a mercantilist economy'' and that the dollar's upside against the yen is limited unless U.S. imports to Japan increase.
Carol Stone, deputy chief economist at Nomura Securities International, pointed out that Japan's threat to sell U.S. Treasuries was not new and that Hashimoto's remarks should not be taken too literally.
``Mr. Hashimoto said what would happen if foreign exchange moves where substantial. There is nothing new there, it's not imminent,'' Stone said. ``Mr. Hashimoto seems quite independent in some of the financial and monetary policies that he wants to pursue. That's not necessarily the view of the other G7.''
Meanwhile, in a statement issued to clarify Hashimoto's remarks Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Takatoshi Kato said Japan will continue to cooperate with the United States to stabilize foreign exchange rates.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:51
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Now that Japan has made it clear to the world that they know they can do damage to the US economy by helpinbg their own what will be the expected US response ie in terms of interest rate changes or similiar matters?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:50
NJ Hashimoto>(Hashimoto): - George S. Cole : I cannot find any hard news reporting a retraction by Hashimoto. Media is citing various, unnamed, Japanese economists and officials who reportedly have said that Hashimoto's remarks were misinterpreted, including one by Bloomberg that the remarks were made in jest. I find it hard to believe. If you have reliable news story will you please post the url.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:33
POLARBEAR hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp>(hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp): - Here's how the Hashimoto comments are being reported in Japan. Not much different really. It did make the front page of the evening newspaper, as a side article. The interesting thing about the article here in the Japanese newspaper I saw is that it mentions nothing of the gold comment!! Hey, maybe that's just a given........
Dow falls on Hashimoto's remark
By TOSHIO JO
Asahi Evening News
NEW YORK--Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto said in a speech here Monday that Japanese investors could be lured into selling U.S. Treasury bills if the yen-dollar exchange rate keeps fluctuating--a comment that led to a decline in bond prices and subsequently sent New York stock prices plunging.
After Hashimoto's comments were reported, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by 192.25 points to close at 7,604.26 for the day. It was the second worst daily loss since a decline of 508 points on Oct. 19, 1987, the so-called Black Monday.
When bond prices decline, their yields, or interest rates, rise, which depresses stock prices. When interest rates rise, stocks become relatively less attractive to investors.
The 30-year Treasury bond fell about!, or $5 per $1,000 bond; its yield rose 3 basis points to 6.69 percent. The two-year note yield rose 3 basis points to 6.01 percent.
Hashimoto made the remarks while taking part in a question-and-answer session at Columbia University, after he delivered a speech on Japan-U.S. relations.
His comments were later taken as a threat to sell off U.S. Treasury bills--short-term debt papers-- in the bond market.
He was responding to a question of whether Japanese buyers of U.S. government bonds would continue to put up with exchange losses resulting from market gyrations.
I hope there is no one here who is with the Federal Reserve Board or the New York Fed, replied Hashimoto. To tell the truth, there were times when Japan felt tempted to sell off U.S. Treasury bills in large quantities in the past, such as when I was in trade negotiations with ( former U.S. Trade Representative ) Mickey Kantor or when it was clear that the U.S. was not interested in maintaining the value of the dollar, which is the key international currency.
He then called for efforts by U.S. monetary authorities to keep exchange rates from gyrating.
In the late 1980s, Japanese institutional investors such as life insurance companies sustained huge losses in their investment in U.S. government bonds as the dollar plunged against the yen. However, they could not dump their bonds because that would have lowered the dollar's value further.
Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Takatoshi Kato, who accompanied Hashimoto to New York, told reporters later that his comment was misinterpreted.
Hashimoto's intention was to keep Japan's policy toward the United States consistent, bearing in mind the good relations between the two nations, he said. -end-
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:20
gunrunner gunrunner@bsc.net>(gunrunner@bsc.net): - Could the Hayshittymoto comments have been staged? Only a couple of days after the G - 7.3+ meeting and he pipes up. Maybe Rubinspan & the boyz got together for drinks ( without their bosses ) and said Heh, heh, heh, wanna have some fun? This is gonna be cool... Uh, huh, huh
Since Klintoris, along with the rest of the financial prostitutes, have been ignoring all the irrational exuberance comments for months. Perhaps this is their way of gotting some attention... without the pressure getting focused on Greenspan. Greenspan could justify rate increases as a posturing move and not be labeled the guy who took the punchbowl away from the party...
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:10
panda @>(@): - Tortfeasor -- I trade index options on stock. I got burned by Schwab yesterday. Once on their lousy commision schedual, and again on EXTREMLY poor execution on both directions. I got a lousy fill compounded with a FOUR minute delay in executing a market sell to close. The fill took less than thirty seconds to complete! It's things like this that make me think that brokers sometimes trade against their clients. Of course, how does one prove this? To put this simply, my loss was 2.5 times larger than it should have been, not because I didn't know when to get out, it's that they wouldn't let me out. Fortunately, the sum was not that large, BUT, this has been happening repeatedly for the last four to five months on a consistant basis. A nasty cut won't cause you to bleed to death, but if you have enough of them in a short period of time.... I've been trying to close out positions that could cause me angst during the transition from one broker to another. Hence my grief, I still have to deal with these *fine* people.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:10
BARNEY Minnesota>(Minnesota): - Crystal Ball: I'm not possitive about gold, but silver and platinum
are taked from U.S. stock piles to be paid back at a
later date.
Yah, you betsah. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:05
gunrunner gunrunner@bsc.net>(gunrunner@bsc.net): - Mike Seller: Good balance. By the way, what's wrong with cowboy boots?
EB, Eldorado - Thanks for the tips! ( Didn't get the #s I was hoping for, but maybe in time.... )
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 08:00
George S. Cole Hashimoto>(Hashimoto): - As I said yesterday, I would hasve been much happier if the markets had moved on no news. As expected Hashimoto has retracted his threat for the time being, gold is down a bit and S&P futures are up strongly. Still feel that Hashimoto's comments do mark the BEGINNING of a major shift in the governing investment paradigm. But this will take time to play itself out.
WW: I must side with APH on the gold stock/gold bullion debate. The fact that the stocks do not rise with bullion indeed signals how bearish gold investors are today. Such an extreme means that risk/reward is very favorable. But sentiment can become even more bearish before the bottom is in. Buying gold stocks when bullion is leading on the upside, or when gold stocks refuse to follow bullion higher can be dangerous to your short-term financial health. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 07:45
Crystal Ball @Just Curious>(@Just Curious): - Is the U.S. using up some of its gold supply to mint the American Eagles?
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 07:27
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning): - Hashimoto's threat to use gold reminds me of the following story:
The other day I was sitting in the doctor's office when a nun came
running out of the exam room screaming and yelling. She was so
upset, she didn't even pay her bill, just slammed the door and left.
About a minute later the doctor came out and the nurse asked him,
Doctor, what on earth happened in there?
The doctor replied, Well, I examined her. Then I told her she
was pregnant.
Pregnant? A nun? That's impossible!, said the nurse.
I know. But it sure cured her hiccups. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 07:15
Nick @Aussie>(@Aussie): - Globex as the day rolls on:
SP500 +2.55 +540 +830 +855 +755 +815 +745
Nasdaq -9.0 +6.5 +12.0 +16.0 +8.0
If nothing else it should be a volatile night as everyone tries to pre-emt the future direction. If I only knew. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 06:52
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - We ARE all one big happy family after all! My goodness, but 'they' certainly do act quickly these days! Must have had to spend some bucks last night! And we know that there is a never ending supply of those available!
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 06:46
Mike Sheller ................(:+$)>(................(:+$)): - I just want to make it clear that I was not being curmudgeonly to the gang at Kitco. I really don't like to see goldbugs yanked around. I know everyone here can take good care of themselves. And I know that there isn't a sharper, more congenial and constructively combative group anywhere when it comes to the serious issues that affect our bread and butter reality. I was not trying to come off sanctimoniously. Nevertheless, our day will come, and when it does no beaurocrat will see it coming in advance. Only someone at Kitco.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 06:24
Mike Sheller goldbugs had again>(goldbugs had again): - Well, Kitcoites teased and tossed aside again. When will the gang learn that the only sure bet is to copper whatever a government official says. For a group that is generally highly critical of state functionaries ( and for good reason ) , methinks too much stock has been put in recent public remarks. Everyone seems to know just how the Japanese think. For such an inscrutable people, so difficult to know what their intentions are, everyone appears to have a direct insight into their national soul. I too have been involved in business dealings with the Japanese, albeit of major corporations rather than government agencies. Nevertheless, even in 1989 when the Nikkei was riding high and everyone was just discovering corporate Japan, many Japanese evidenced attitudes and characteristics more consistent with American behavior than the stereotype held up for them. Japanese, as people of any culture, eventually take on many of the cultural characteristics of the people with whom they closely deal. The key phrase here is closely deal. These people ( Hashimoto, Rubin, Greenspan, etc ) are closer to each other than they are to YOU my goldbug compatriots. Don't ever forget that. Their goals and plans are shared and they always know what each other is thinking about economic tides and unfolding events. They don't have to make threats in public to indicate what they are going to do. Hashimoto's intentions were to rub Clinton's nose in his own cultural crassness. His statement was a sting back at the US in response to a cultural affront and embarrassment. Nothing more. Nothing less. He put on the cowboy boots after all. These are our world leaders. We should all be embarrassed.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 05:33
George S. Cole rebound?>(rebound?): - S&P futures up $6.00, dollar index up, gold down 30 cents. Looks like the market will rebound some this morning. But if players start to reassess the odds of a rate increase next week, the rebound may not last long.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:39
Donald 105636.2252@Compuserve.com>(105636.2252@Compuserve.com): - Japan is still an island nation as it was in 1941. It must have raw materials, just as then. It manufactures and sells products so it still needs customers. The point is that whatever it does with bonds and gold it must not upset its suppliers and customers. The US is a large part of both those categories. Japan will act in a way that respects that fact.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:33
Mike @>(@): - BERNATZ: Simply sleepless. Not a US citizen thus probably not qualified to work for the treasury.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:28
POLARBEAR hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp>(hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp): - Organ,
Good post. It's also true that all weapons are eventually used, sooner or later. Might this be the case here too with the threat to sell US treasuries and buy gold? Just finished discussing this with my Japanese wife, and she had some interesting points:
It would have been one thing if Hashimotosan said they would be inclined to no longer buy U.S. Treasury bills.
But it's a much stronger statement to say that Japan would actually be sellers
AND EVEN BETTER, THAT THEY WOULD ACTUALLY BE FORCED TO BUY GOLD!!!!!!!! Ah that four-letter word that politicians hate to hear-that dreaded archaic stuff that they can't create out of thin air.
From Cnnfn:
Dow tumbles 192 points--Retreat from record highs pummels stocks; bonds pull back
I find it rather humorous that CNNfn failed to even mention this in their explanation of why the DOW had its second biggest drop of all time. Not really surprising, just the usual pathetic groupthink journalism.
My wife said she'd swing buy the newsstand tonight to buy the latest Japanese newspaper, and I'll post anything relevant that we find.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:25
Bernatz de ventadorm le fou@plays detective>(le fou@plays detective): - For Mike@
You nevair answer zee question eef you work for Sir Rubin zee Bondsman.
Ah notice you up vairy late een zee night. Arre you on zee night sheeft
at zee treasury building - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:23
EB BERNATZ>(BERNATZ): - I mean... you kill me, by gar!
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:18
EB comments>(comments): - GUNRUNNER ( 16:00 ) try http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi and
http://www.futuresource.com/ci302.html
ESTE ( 17:26-Hashimoto ) WISE...as usual.
ORGAN-thanks
BERNATZ- you kill me! ha
RJ...where is RJ?...something IS happening...besides DUPLICITUOS FORNICATION...Hmmmmmmmm...
ALL - you're all right...er...I mean all wrong...er...FAGITABOUTIT!
To add - As I was sitting outside, tonight, enjoying a fine glass of central Cal. coast Merlot, watching a beautiful cloudless sunset, a small rocket ( relatively speaking of course ) went streaking up through the sky. ( I currently live very close to VAFB ) . I have seen countless rockets shoot through the sky and NONE were as beautiful and apropos as this. It was reminiscent to a time back in late April when all the HEADS ( rubinspan, G-7, Japanese ) were talking of trade gaps and currency discrepancies etc...Hmmmmm...look at charts early May-JYM7...It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out...I'm glad I saw it.
Goodnight.
AWAY!
EB - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:15
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@is logical>(le_fou@is logical): - For Monsiour Mike@
Ma fren - your question as to whezair ah care eef ah
am kill-ed by a conventional bomb or an atomic bomb
does not speak to zee pwoint. Ah prefair neizair by
gar.
Zee pwoint ees ow zee ozair japanese people who were
NOT kill-ed by eizair kinds of explosive devices see
zee mattair. Ah believe zey feel zat zee use of zee
nuclear bomb against zem while eet was nevair us-ed
against zee germans was ra-ceest.
Zee US nevair us-ed any bombs against zee Pyranees
and we zank you for zat ( except for a few you drop on
us and Switzerland by mistake of course ) .
So mah fren Mike@, eet mattairs leetle about what you
zink ees logical about zee bomb drop-pings and what you
zink about zis an zat. Ahm telling you mah fren zat zee
japanese ( an ah speek of zee young ones ) do not love
zee US so much as you zink zey do, and zey-zee young
ones speak of zee a-bomb even zho eet was drop before
zey were born. ( even zho you would not zink zat was
logical ) .
Also mah fren ah do not zink eet ees logical for
any poor fool to buy your US bonds - Especially when
pyraneean bonds are available - backed by zee good name
of Bernatz. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 04:15
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@is logical>(le_fou@is logical): - For Monsiour Mike@
Ma fren - your question as to whezair ah care eef ah
am kill-ed by - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 03:24
Strad Master Perhaps it isn't fully thought through!>(Perhaps it isn't fully thought through!): - MIKE: I don't know all that much about this subject so maybe I'm all wet, but it seems to me that the bombing of Pearl Harbor wasn't a fully rational act either.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 03:10
Mike @>(@): - DEAR BERNATZ: I am excited and hoping for a serious selloff in the bond market.
Japanese resentments for the A-bomb? Could be, but would not be entirely rational. Conventional bombing can and has wreaked similar havoc. Do you really care if you are killed or crippled in a nuclear or in a conventional way? Of course the masses are not rational and the topic will be brought up as soon as it is politically expedient. We might even take that as a leading indicator of Japanese retreat from alliance with the US. It would be interesting to hear from Japanese lurkers how they feel about the topic.
Count me as a semi gold-bug ( platinum, silver ) . The Kitco-forum is interesting mainly through the presence of free thinking spirits, which refuse to bow to the conventional wisdom of the herd. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 02:46
Organ %>(%): - I still can't believe that Hashimoto used the G word: Gold. I
think that this is the most offensive part of his speech ( to the Yanks, anyway ) . My mantra on this site for a while ( based on the writings of the inestimable
Soros ) has always been to watch Japan closely for any sign of an
impending decline in the amount of speculative inflows into the
U.S. economy/markets. Well, no microscope was required here! This
is the sign I have been waiting for. Tomorrow I am shorting the
Nasdaq and I'm going to sell many in-the-money XAU put contracts
( probably at the December 140 strike ) . I expect to collect all of
this premium while sleeping very comfortably at night. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 02:31
Jack Japanese Still Hold Many US $>(Japanese Still Hold Many US $): -
The Japanese still hold many US $ that are not in short
dated US Treasury Bonds. It can also be said, that the
Yen is much stronger in Dollar terms than it was in 1987.
More important gold is now cheaper than it was in 1987,
at the market crash; and that is, in either of the two
currencies.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 02:31
MADOG STEVEE-P>(STEVEE-P): - STEVE PUETZ- In answer to your question, no , I decided against the S&P option as i thought it was pricey. Wanted it as a hedge while I'm away for three weeks this summer, in a remote part of the world where the power is shut off at midnight. So I'll probably sell the remaining shares i have instead. I learned long ago at the age of 17 , to disregard anything my broker says. That lesson cost me 5,000.00 dollars but well worth the price.
I dont post very often, but constantly lurking. I want to tell you that i look forward to your posts and work on the Gold Eagle site. Time will prove you to be correct . Not because of the laws of probabilities, but the logical and historical approach you take. Keep up the great work.
MD - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 02:24
Organ Nippon History>(Nippon History): - Tis true, my main contact with Japanese culture has been through
dating their fine women. However, I am not completely ignorant of
Japanese history -- in fact I have always found it fascinating, and
it will always be bewildering to me. If you read my comments care-
fully, I never suggested that the comments are not serious. My jaw
hit the floor when I read them today. I remarked to a friend that
the comment was tantamount to economic nuclear war -- especially
coming from a Japanese man, where diplomacy and discretion are the
rule. But NUCLEAR WARS CANNOT BE WON, by the initiators or the
initial victims. The Japanese are screwed, and their only trump card
will destroy their own economy as well as the Americans', making it
as ineffective as a real nuclear weapon in combat. That is why I
believe that the Hashimoto comments are a bluff -- economic nuclear
war is just a dumb idea for all sides. This is a move to keep the
dollar nice and high so that the Japanese economy can finally be
revived out of its slump. I believe that this ploy will be successful.
- Organ - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 02:16
Lurker @>(@): -
No EBN update on Tokyo stocks. Are they closed? - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 02:09
Bernatz de Ventadorm le fou@Japan>(le fou@Japan): - For Monsiour Mike@
Mah fran - ah hav nevair seen you zo exCITE before.
An you write zo much about ow bad is zee gold - and
ow close is zee tie between zee japanese and zee US and
ow eet ees zo much closair zen zee ties between China
and zee Japanese.
Zen you say zee Chinese have zee long memoRIES
and do not forgive zee JapaNESE.
Frankly ma fren, perhaps you forget zat zee japanese
mayBE have zee memories TOO and zey mayBE remembair zee
beeg BOMBS zat zee US drop on zem by gar. Also ma fren
Ah can tell you zat zee tie between zem and zee Chinese
ees strongair zen you zink. Zey can read zee same
crazee language by gar and zey believe in zee traditions
. Also zey would both regard much of zee culture of zee
US as a leetle barbaric.
Ah wondair about you monsiour Mike@. Why are you at
zees site eef you hate zee gold zo much. Do you work
for Sir Rubin zee Bondsman - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 01:52
EB @Jake Bernstein>(@Jake Bernstein): - It's That time again... http://www.trade-futures.com/report.html
AWAY!
EB - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 01:41
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To All
I believe GFD's Statement that gold serves as a
politically neutral reserve currency and provides
dissident Governments/CBs alternatives to US currency
bondage in current or future policy conflicts should
be nailed to everyone wall. I think we have all been
groping at this idea for a long time. GFD got it right.
The fact that you get no interest on it is what you
have to pay to keep dorkos cliton/gore from jamming a
cowboy hat on your head in front of a TV camera.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 01:39
NJ gold>(gold): - Organ : Bluffs are made by junior officials, not by heads of state. Today's remarks were made by Prime Minister Hashimoto of Japan, the world's second largest economy. The remarks were so forthright and blunt the financial press has yet to react to them in a coherent manner. It is folly to treat them in any other way except with utmost seriousness. And yes, I agree with Capt Buckler. From now on, the numbers coming out of the government are not going to be as market friendly and, at the very least, Rubinspan are going to start making statements designed to prepare the markets for a rate increase.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 01:27
history student JAPANESE history>(JAPANESE history): - Organ: With all due respect, you are totally ignorant of Japanese history and its culture - which has never lent itself to bluff. The Japanese are painfully discreet, and only very rarily will expose their real intentions to the outside. Were you to know the Nippon culture in more depth, you most certainly would alter your opinion of what Minsiter Hashimoto really meant.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 01:17
Another Lurker Ideas>(Ideas): -
Now, now! Now, now! lets not get carried away by such
bullish utterances, as were spoken today. They still
have to be backed by fact.
What follows is pure speculation:
When the gold stocks tanked in 1987 with the general
market, the gold metal was relatively higher than today.
Thus I speculate, that if the market tanks; the gold
shares will rise; but 'gold the metal' must rise. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 00:57
cherokee @consistency-and-timing>(@consistency-and-timing): - lots of ways to imagine how the up-coming equities
diaspora will be set-off. the setting-sun could
indeed make another historic run at the american
super-power.
if history repeats itself, what can we expect? we were at
the mercy of the japanese navy in wwII, and there was divine
intervention. will the divine, intervene in this next attack?
we have sold our-selves down the river! this is a perfect
example of riding on the back of a tiger, you eventually
end-up inside-her. would it be accurate to say that OUR
vehicle that drives the markets, has been cornered?
in the interest of logic...and excessive imaginative juices....
consider---
cut off the head of the snake, and the body dies.
bonds are the head of the snake. foreign powers have
snared, and positioned the snake for the fell blow.
were it that the snake, should not have expected it,
he almost welcomes it. could the rush of the lemmings
be any more predictable?
bonds feed the snake.
the snake feeds the bear.
this leaves the bear, where?
the farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see.
winston churchill
copper is fixing to do a 50% re-tracement. it's a good short with a favorable risk/reward ratio.
silver has broken-out of its' narrow channel to the upside. well...
that's favorable....
cherokee!; ) inhaler of cosmic debris, and star gazer. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 00:56
Organ Blind Man's Bluff>(Blind Man's Bluff): - Hashimoto's comments sound like a high-stakes bluff. Selling off
the U.S. debt will have disasterous effects for Japanese
businesses. The U.S. stock and bond markets will crash, which
will strongly reduce American demand for Japanese exports. Also,
the higher T-bill rates can cause an increased flight of capital
from Japanese private investors, exacerbating their recession.
Mr. Buckler's hypothesis that the comments were merely a ploy to goad
Greenspan into raising rates looks credible right now, as I don't
believe that the Japanese are stupid enough to start an economic
nuclear war that they cannot possibly win. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 00:33
Bill Buckler Japan and higher US rates>(Japan and higher US rates): - Larry ( 23:43 June 23 ) Mr Hashimoto wants the U.S. to raise rates FIRST - before
the Japanese do. One of Mr Hashimoto's major problems is how to stem the
avalanche of capital which is being borrowed in Japan ( at 0.5% ) and stuffed
into the U.S.. Japan can do that by raising rates, but if they do that on their
own, they indeed risk, amongst other problems, an appreciating Yen.
The U.S. has done absolutely nothing to promote stable exchange rates.
Just the opposite. They have relied on foreign support for their Treasury
debt to the extent that it has financed almost their entire deficit.
Mr Hashimoto's comment about selling debt for Gold is an indication
that he and his advisors are starting to think that there will NEVER
be a way to promote stable exchange rates under the current system
Oh, and by the way, I am sure that Mr Hashimoto's comments
were not made off the cuff, as the U.S. media characterises them.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 00:23
Mike @>(@): - ALL: What interest can large countries have in gold? They could enter the gold market as large speculators. If they do this without overpowering all other market participants they can, at best, make a little ( ridiculuosly little ) money ( i.e. garner foreing currency reserves ) in relation to their GDP.
Let's say a country becomes a large speculator with intent to corner the market. In this ( unlikely ) case you, the gold bugs, will be the big winners, IF you do not hang on to your gains for religous reasons but sell out at the right time.
The large speculator loses: he drives up the price and buys most of his holdings at high prices. He buys high and is himself responsible for buying high. He buys a lot. He will have to prove to us that he can also sell high, sell a lot very high. His strategy works against him even if he does not use leverage, although leverage compounds his problems. Time and the high price work against him: THE SUPPLY EXPLODES. There is a lot of gold out there nor is it unknown where it is or how to get it. Since economists are not that silly, we can safely rule out this ambition for large countries.
The only way to be really serious about it, would be to put the national currency on a gold standard. What would that do? It would certainly inspire enormous confidence in that currency and increase the demand for that currency. The currency will rise in relation to other currencies.
Short term effect: Every holder of that currency ( mostly the citizens ) becomes instantly wealthier. That could raise the standard of living in the short term.
Long term effects: The money supply can only be expanded in proportion to an expansion in the gold holdings. This is controlled by domestic mining and purchase from foreign mines. However the funds for purchase from foreign mines must come from running a trade surplus ( they cannot come from printing and not from borrowing money ( for any length of time ) ) . The strong national currency makes it harder to run a trade surplus. Thus the money supply will expand very slowly. This will put constraints on economic growth. To have price stability, you want to expand the money supply to the same degree to which the economy grows. A money supply which shrinks in relation to the economy is deflationary ( far more so than high interest rates ) .
In addition a gold standard severly crimps the flexibility of the monetary authorities to manipulate the national currency for example in the game of international trade ( against their opponent countries ) . Thus I don't see a gold standard anywhere on the horizon.
What other intrinsic value might gold have for a large country? None at all is my belief. The prosperity of large nations depends on their knowledge, economic skills, social organization, military power, access to natural resources. for a country it can be quite rational to devalue its currency, thereby impoverishing its citizens, to gain greater economic competiveness and better economic development resulting in higher standards of living at some point in the future.
INDIVIDUALS are in a somewhat different position. For example they might object to such policies of impoverishment ( and others such as inflating the debt away ) and need to prepare themselves for such contingencies. You will have to admit that gold has only very limited use for you other than either as a means of speculation or a ( hopefully nondepreciating ) store of value. The hope of its nondepreciating nature can always be entertained ( but was vain in the last 15 years ) . Thus we are mostly speculators. There is no compelling reason to speculate in gold. In fact there are many reasons to do this in platinum, palladium or silver. Given the CB overhang, gold strikes me as the worst choice. Its value is derived from psychological factors and social convention.
This does not mean that there could not be a huge runup in the price of gold. There could be. But in such case get out at the right time. It won't last forever.
- Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 00:19
ezau swami@sub.rosa>(swami@sub.rosa): - Well, I did call the Dow drop last week. Chalk one up for the
line psychic. Also, my golden butterfly is fluttering its
wings. Things are warming up. This talk re Japan; maybe
my butterfly vision was a Japan symbol. They are more into
symbols in writing/thinking than we are here in the west.
When this gold market moves it will be out of the control
of the politicians of any nation. Now, I have to think about
when to sell. After I make a double? Such problems. - Date: Tue Jun 24 1997 00:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Larry: Mr Hashimoto may have provided a necessary alert to the rest of the world that the US position is not all that it's cracked up to be. If so the demand for US debt will drop off and ease the dollar value some. But then: Who will buy the bonds? ..... and where will the former bond dollars be spent? The fed will handle the former and gold the latter?
Additional thought: If the trade dollars are spent for gold; won't that also be supportive of the dollar? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:43
Larry eaglewg@flash.net>(eaglewg@flash.net): - As much as I admire and appreciate Bill Buckner's opinions and The Privateer, if the Fed raises rates, that will strengthen the dollar and that is not what Mr. Hashimoto wants. I don't think that is what he is suggesting to Greenspan. There must be some other method to lower the overly excessive value of the dollar considering the balance of payments deficits the U.S. keeps piling up.
Mr Hashimoto's original statement ( I believe ) was out of frustration with the US ( Clinton/Rubin ) being so arrogantly satisfied when there is trouble ahead and Hashimoto can see it, and he realizes that Clinton is blindly and ignorantly cruising into the trainwreck and likely to take Japan with him.
This high value of the dollar is the inverse to the dropping price of gold. They are both about to reverse direction.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:33
ssssssssss ddddd>(ddddd): - Even if the Japanese just swap the US's very valuable IOU's ( bonds ) for that stupid gold to achieve to minimum mrkt disturbance; I think other big players on the international scene might choose to avoid Japan's current perdiciment by buying the gold that rubin is aching to sell.
This way everybody would be happy. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:20
Tortfeasor Feeling your pain>(Feeling your pain): - Panda, so you are getting screwed by commodity brokers? I know that feeling well. Who are you dumping? I dumped Siegle and probably will drop Stauss. I found neither to be other than commission hungry leaches. Enought of my financial blood has been let for this year.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:18
Larry eaglewg@flash.net>(eaglewg@flash.net): - My understanding of Mr Hashimoto's comments is that Clinton/Rubin don't mind if the dollar's strength allows it to move again to the 124-126 yen area, which is too high for the Japanese. Remember, the dollar fell from 126 to 112 when the Japanese became serious about controlling the exchange rate, and they want a range somewhere between 103-116 ( take your pick ) . By selling T-bills, the Japanese would weaken the dollar and drive it lower, should the U.S. let it climb too much. However, I'm sure that the Japanese know that if they are not careful, they will cause an avalance and the dollar could fall too low, causing even worse volatility for the yen on the low end. Therefore, the retraction.
I think that the market will ignore this incident for now, but it is another very heavy straw for that camel.
The only two gold funds which went up today are heavily into other natural resources, too. At the current level, gold funds are still sliding, but when the rally comes, we will see 30-40% gain in some of these within 2 months. If you wait for gold to get to 400 to confirm a rally, you will miss out. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:15
George s. Cole The Privateer>(The Privateer): - Captain Bill: As usual you are a more than a few steps ahead of the crowd. Thanks for sharing your cogent and VERY SIGNIFICANT essay with us!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:09
Puetz @ One big difference>(@ One big difference): - Mike: There's one big difference between Japan ( or any central bank ) and the Hunt Brothers. A central bank would be getting out of intrinsically worthless financial paper and getting into real money. The Hunts were using leverage to buy silver. Running a market up on leverage is unsustainable, and it makes the market vulnerable to a crash.
You are right that holders of US debt are in a no-win situation. The big question is: How much longer will central banks bear the pain and hold this worthless paper without doing something.
Imagine 20 thirsty people sitting in a circle in 110 degree weather. In the center of this circle is one glass of water. A guard ( with one bullet in his gun ) threatens to shoot anyone that goes for the water. A some point, knowing that they will die from thirst anyway, someone will take the chance and make a break for the water anyway. And once the first person runs, the rest are likely to follow in hot persuit.
That's the way the gold market is now. All it will take is ONE central bank to move in that direction, and watch the mad-scramble begin.
Central banks moving into gold will be totally unlike the Hunts. Central banks will be exchanging worthless paper for something of value. And they have lots of these wortheless notes to sustain the buying for many years.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:07
George S. Cole wishful thinking>(wishful thinking): - Mike: While Japan undoubtedly does not want to anger the U.S., to assume they will never do so no matter what the U.S. does smacks of wishful thinking and chauvinism.
If Germany and France can be friends or Germany and Israel, why not Japan and China?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 23:01
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net): - Cap'n Bill Buckler:
Thanks for the free issue and insight into Mr. Hashimotos's off-the-cuff remarks. I imagine that his remarks will be discredited, but they are felt if not functional. My free issue http://www.gold-eagle.com/frames.html which went out to subscribers last night discusses all the reasons for gold's being on its ass, and why and how it will rise. Are the double bottom in cash and the Hashimoto and Hillary events today the spur to get it moving? $4.00 does not make a bull market, but I am hopeful that IF there is a syndicate wanting to push gold, THIS IS THE TIME. Cheers and happy trails! - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:59
vronsky I COULD NOT DISAGREE MORE!>(I COULD NOT DISAGREE MORE!): - Mike: YOU HAVE SOME SERIOUS FLAWS IN YOUR REASONING WITH THE FOLLOWING. Unfortunatly, I still have about 6 hours of work tonight, before I can hit the sack - so you can say I have no foundation to my opposite opinion. So be it! BUT I COULD NOT DISagree more with:
The idea to convert a major portion of their US debt into gold also strikes me as highly risky: We could have a repeat of the Hunt experience on a major scale: The price of gold explodes. Mines dig harder. Jewelry is molten down. Japan buys most of its gold at very high prices.
Supply explodes. The price could come down. Its not so clear however. Japan is a little bigger than the Hunt Brothers. We do live in interesting times. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:50
George S. Cole Paradigm Shift>(Paradigm Shift): - Even if the paper hangers manage to prevent gold from breaking out over the next few days and the Japanese do not buy any gold for the time being, the cat has been let out of the bag. The unthinkable is now thinkable. A once in a generation investment paradigm shift has begun.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:44
vronsky HASHIMOTO's T-BOMB (treasury-bomb)>(HASHIMOTO's T-BOMB (treasury-bomb)): - GOLD-EAGLE would like to share some trivia - but significant - data. Since May 1, the number of accesses from JAPAN to our website has increased 150 PERCENT IN ONLY 7 WEEKS!!!!! This tremenduous increase in percent visitation is only surpassed by the visits to GOLD-EAGLE by the US governement. How do we know this? All Internet visits have the equivalent of an Internet DNA or finger-prints. Therefore, we can ID the category of the visitation. Personally, I find it exremely interesting that BOTH JAPAN & the US Government have SO much interest in what goes on in the GOLD MARKETS. SOMETHING IS COOKING... and since Gold is at historically low levels, one does not have to be a rocket scientist to surmise that the next BIG MOVE IS DEFINITELY UP. UP, UP!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:44
ACW overseas news coverage>(overseas news coverage): - To All: The London Financial Times made no mention of Hashimotos comments. The London Times mentioned the first part of selling Gov. securities, but omitted buying Gold with the proceeds.
Here is the quote taken from the Foxnews article.
Asked why the weakness of the dollar against the yen over the past
several years has not motivated Japan to sell billions of dollars of
U.S. government-issued securities it holds, Prime Minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto said, On several occasions we've had pressure to sell
off.''
We were tempted to sell off. ... It is true we have not really made
the advantageous choice,'' he said, adding that Japan could have
sold its U.S. treasury bonds and increased its gold holdings. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:37
D.A. stability?>(stability?): - All:
Had my face in the computer all day doing some systems work so this is the first I have heard of Mr. Hashimoto. Does anyone have a handle on what stability meant? Was he looking for the U.S. to support the dollar or the Yen? I guess he is concerned about a dollar decline, but I recall that a few weeks ago the whole reversal in dollar/yen was started when one of the Japanese ministers ( I've forgotten which one ) said something to the extent that 103 was the target. Maybe all this talk of currency stability is cover for the real agenda which is 'we have bought enough of your paper'. With the Japanese banks big players in the carry trade this last swing in the currency must be hurting. It is also interesting that the yen has rallied somewhere around 100 ticks since the statement. I don't know what to make of all this but it sure bears watching. Could it be possible that the action in stock market was related? Things are getting quite dicey.
Have to hit the hay. More in AM. Night All. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:35
Mike @>(@): - HASHIMOTO: interesting aspects of the Hashimoto threat are the lack of economic logic and its untimeliness:
1. Economic logic: A selloff of US treasury debt by the Japanese is going to drive the dollar lower. The Japanese won't make a profit on the goods they manufacture in Japan and ship to the US. Even the profits on the goods they manufacture in the US will shrink in Yen terms. Finally it would decrease the value of their remaining US treasuries.
2. The Dollar has risen quite a bit from its low against the Yen. This is a development favourable for Japan Inc.
Apparently the Japanese are very distraught with US efforts to muscle its way into Japanese markets, so distraught that they would be willing to suffer pain in order to inflict pain. We are looking at financial blackmail. I still believe that holders of large amounts of US debt are in a no win situation. They cannot really dump all of it without hurting themselves at least as much as the US. The only use seems to be as a means of blackmail. As such it remains effective as long as the US depends on foreign funds. The really interesting aspect is the undisguised declaration of such intent.
I believe that this is largely a bluff. Sometime ago Roebear drew our attention to The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel Huntington. It classifies Japan as a distint civilization. Moreover it is rather isolated and has to deal with China. Japanese attrocities against China have not been forgotten. A Japanese-Chinese alliance would certainly be a rather strained affair. In other words: the Japanese cannot afford to anger the US.
The idea to convert a major portion of their US debt into gold also strikes me as highly risky: We could have a repeat of the Hunt experience on a major scale: The price of gold explodes. Mines dig harder. Jewelry is molten down. Japan buys most of its gold at very high prices. Supply explodes. The price could come down. Its not so clear however. Japan is a little bigger than the Hunt Brothers. We do live in interesting times.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:16
panda @zzzzzzzzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzzzzzzzz): - WDL -- The threat has been made. Investors ignore the brewing storm at their own peril. The game is Russian Roulette, eventually the gun will fire. The only question is, when? Where will the accident occur? BTW, the Long bond chart is behaving nicely :- )
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:15
Puetz @ Contemplating ?>(@ Contemplating ?): - Bill Buckler: You answered one of the many questions running through my mind these past few hours. What did Hashimoto mean by his comments? What effect would these comments have on the Fed members who meet at the FOMC gathering next week? Would the Fed raise interest rates to support the US Dollar, even though the economy is weakening very rapidly?
Within the past hour, the financial storm has calmed. S&P futures have recovered some. A few minutes after the NYSE close, the DJIA was indicated to open as much as 60 to 70 points lower. Now it looks like the DJIA will only open 20 to 30 lower. After being up $2.00 earlier tonight, gold is now up less than 1/2 dollar.
Nevertheless, hedge funds still hold 1/4 year of mined gold in short positions. Gold speculators hold 36,000 or more Comex gold contracts short. None of these traders have yet had time to react to the Hashimoto news. How comfortable will they feel with these huge short positions over the next few days? Should one hedge fund start to cover, the next probably won't be too far behind. Once a market starts to rise, rumors fly. What kind of rumors will surface to scare the shorts?
The gold bulls will probably be equally nervous. Most bulls are still shell-shocked after repeated downturns. How nervous do you suppose they will become the next time gold goes down for a day? The market will probably try to shake them out.
How will any future down-draft in the DJIA or the bond market effect the gold price? What kind of rumors will these financial down-drafts spark?
The are some of the factors that I believe will shape the markets during the next couple of weeks. It will make for interesting speculation. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:09
panda @>(@): - Gold down ten cents on EBN. I think I'll call it a night. I think I've hit my limit with forgivness of brokers. Time to fill out some account transfer forms.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:06
WDL @ Hashimoto>(@ Hashimoto): - Bloomberg News' 10:00 EDT report from Tokyo has Hashimoto recanting on his remarks at Columbia University this afternoon. Hashimoto claims that he was misinterpreted. Hashimoto says he wants to maintain good relations with the United States.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 22:04
panda @>(@): - Speed -- I viewed SWC as a special case. The company is going in to full production ( supposedly ) this month. The are sitting on a huge pile of PA/PL reserves. I could go on, alright... Their float is something like 10 -11 million shares. A little bit of interest here will go a long way in their share price. Like everything else, a little luck helps to!
Well, I have to change brokers. Schwabee just doesn't cut it. I got burned in an option trade today. The initial loss was very small, it's just that Schwabee waited about four minutes to execute ( ! ) the sale. Funny, the fill ( which was LOUSY ) took less than thirty seconds. Lost almost a full point on the sale due to lousy execution. Tortfeasor, I KNOW your pain. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:55
Este to Simple man>(to Simple man): - Your are presenting a very logical explanation on what might unfold in the Orient.
However,in spite of the possible positive implications of Hashimoto's statement for the precious metals, I keep reminding myself that politicians are ALWAYS grandstanding and almost never speak from the heart. Take note of the if that followed his introduction. He was speculating on what might happen if... That means that in between now and then he's hoping that the US will become more understanding towards some of the issues that concern his Country. Will he deliver on his threat? I doubt it very much, but this situation could be constructive for gold at least in the short term. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:42
Bill Buckler Hashimoto was talking to GREENSPAN!>(Hashimoto was talking to GREENSPAN!): - Consider that Mr Hashimoto, in his remarks concerning
selling U.S. debt and buying Gold, was most concerned
about the U.S. helping to maintain exchange stability.
What can the U.S. do to maintain stability. That's
right, RAISE INTEREST RATES.
I have posted an update to this situtation at The
Privateer's website. Normally, this would go out to
subscribers only. This is truly a biggie, though,
so I am making it available to all.
The URL is http://www.the-privateer.com/corresp.html
This, BTW, is a startling development to follow so
closely on the heels of the first technical sign of
a Gold bottom. That is the Aussie Dollar gold chart
that I posted a week ago at
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:41
6pak Puetz @ Great Calls & Good Research.>(Puetz @ Great Calls & Good Research.): - GFD June 23 @ 19:23 : Imperialistic Hegemony and US Currency Bondage
Japan has the skills, to release the terror in the financial markets,
via, the threat of GOLD. But, will they ? That nation knows history.
Example:
Richard Whitney, President of the New York Stock Exchange but soon to be
a Sing Sing prisoner, testified before the Senate Committee, discribing
the way J.P. Morgan and Company forced up the price of German bonds
through the activities of a *POOL* while the bond issue was being sold to the public. The bonds were sold, then support of the *POOLS* was removed.
The day of his appearance before the Senate Committee, they were bringing
thirty-five cents to the dollar.
Mr. Whitney, somehow offended at Senatorial innuendo that there had been
dishonesty somewhere, protested that this technique of bond selling was
an absolutely usual and customary method of merchandising and
distributing securities.
When the directorships of the Morgan allies were added, Morgan interests
controlled assets of approximately 74 billion dollars, sufficient to give
them an adequate voice in the country's policies.
The Morgans, their allies, the Rockefeller and Mellon interests, as well
as more than a few others, had investments of some 16 billion dollars
abroad. American financiers were quick to point out that they were not
engaged in *imperialism*, that no American ever were, but were merely
developing backward countries for the good of all concerned. As with
their operations on the stock market, they were only doing good by
accepted business methods.
Charges of *imperialism* were as difficult to understand as the charges
of graft in connection with Wall Street *POOLS*
The American capitalist found that dollar control could be more success-
fully hidden than outright political control of foreign territory. It
was more satisfactory to rule through a Haitian puppet, a complaisant
Cuban government, or a bought and paid for president of the Dominican
Republic or Nicaragua than to rule through the actual annexation of
other nations.
The American *imperialists* were in a position where they could denounce
and deny *imperialism* while praising the self-determination and
independence of peoples. They could have all the fruits of *imperialism*
while condemning it, particularly the *imperialism* of their British
rivals which they hoped to displace with their own more streamlined brand.
Nevertheless throughout the 1920's American armed force always followed
American investments, ousting governments favoring repudiation of Wall
Street loans, guarding American oil properties from expropriation,
squelching all attempts at genuine independence through the machine gun
and **bomb.**
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:31
Tortfeasor Conclusion>(Conclusion): - Mike Sheller and others reasonably postulate that gold will drop down to 320 or 330 per oz. as its bottom. However, as I have stated before on several occasions I think 340 is the bottom touchstone around which the bears will rally before being driven to the four winds by the bull stampede. I don't think it will go much below 340 for the reason that the difference between the 320 projected by Mike Sheller and his followers and 340 can be explained by the Orient appetite for gold. The DOW today and the other paper markets during the final two hours amply demonstrate that the market can and will go down much faster than it ever goes up. Some have stated that the drop in the market will carry gold down with it. Considering gold is lying in the financial gutter right now I don't see that as being what will happen. Today gold was strong, the market was week--I see today as being a microcosm of what the next two years will bring, except that gold stocks at some point will desert their raggedy paper fellow travelers.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:29
WDL @opinions>(@opinions): - Has Bubba's ability to dodge deep do-do ( Bush-ism ) finally come to an end! Talk about teflon...Clinton has lived the charmed life of the millenium...more moves than a whirling dervish. Stranger things have happened because of slights and miscalculations. Does this open the flood gates? All this, of course, would bode poorly for the stock market. The market hates uncertainty and surprises...like being doused with an unexpected cold pail of water. Conversely, could rekindle renewed interest in gold. As they say, Domo arrigato, Mr. Hashimoto, domo!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:25
BillD Sunshine volume>(Sunshine volume): - SSC's volume was a little above normal, PLUS, there was a 2.5 million share block trade at 11/16 ... which was 1/16 under the market. So the volume was not that extreme...what's happening with SSC, who knows
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:13
vronsky Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom (6/23/97)>(Wild Euphoria, Expiration Pause, Quarter's End & Risk Loom (6/23/97)): - CNBC Financial Celebrity believes market still not seen top - but its on tippy-toes. On Gold: “...this is what a bottom looks like.” Gene Inger letter Forecast:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:09
Anyone What.happened.to.SunShine.Mine>(What.happened.to.SunShine.Mine): - SunShine Mine took it under the chin today. There is NO news on it.
the Volume was very high.. Can someone find some answers? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:02
PB somewhere>(somewhere): - Mike--Thanks for the encouragement. I'll try to get my facts straight next time. Here's the link.
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/21/z0009_802.html - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 21:00
APH ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,>(,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,): - WW - I consider the analysis of the XAU vs Gold to be one of my most valuable indicators of future movement of Gold. It's a matter of how a trader interprets the XAU movement. The Xau tips the hand of gold's advances and declines over and over again. In 1993 the acceleration of the XAU told me to get into gold futures and it indicated to get out in early Aug. when gold was advancing and the xau suddenly stopped going up. Two days later gold dropped $20 on the opening. This year the XAU's most recent low on 4/28 has not been taken out while the low in gold on 4/16 has been. This divergence told me the downside was limited, if a new low were to be made in the xau, much lower gold prices could be anticapated. Over the last 10 years I would have been caught out on a ledge many times without it.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:54
Mike @>(@): - PB: Keep posting. Indeed, please post a link to the article.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:51
Speed dsissom@smart1.net>(dsissom@smart1.net): - Panda: Looks like everybody left for celebratory drinks. Stillwater fought back today. Now I wish I'd bought some more. The Russkies may not have much to sell!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:40
panda @>(@): - Platinum story. So when will the Russian's deliver?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/23/y0003_y00_4.html - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:31
panda @>(@): - Well, it was an ugly day for stox.
Now, what I'd like to see is gold up a few dollars tonight. The New York boyz may knock it down tomorrow, but the message will get through. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:30
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Opinion-technical update Dow,SP= Bullish Gold = Bearish XAU = Bearish Dollar Poker-faced PUETZ Congrats!!! on the Dow,SP call.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:26
PB somewhere>(somewhere): - WW: Oops. I re-read the article about the cowboy boots. Your instinct was right ( are you psychic? ) . It was KOHL who refused to wear the boots. Hashimoto ( no doubt reluctantly ) put them on. My apologies and I will keep my trap shut from here on out. I think some of us were meant to lurk.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:21
REB na>(na): - EBN has gold at 340.35
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:20
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com): - My apologies if an erroneous lease rate has caused any confusion! Yes it's wrong - should read 1.14 NOT 5.69. The blank entry in the corresponding forward rate box should have been a tip-off that something was wrong. The problem? Someone mistakenly set the date on one of the computers to April 1, and so the machines felt that today they were entitiled.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:18
vronsky 20 REASONS TO SELL STOCKS NOW (June 23, 1997)>(20 REASONS TO SELL STOCKS NOW (June 23, 1997)): - Mega-Bear gives 20 advance signals calling for total liquidation of stocks - and taking refuge in gold & silver coins. See Steve Puetz Letter. Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:17
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Just be 'knowledgable' should you see Hashimoto in cowboy boots!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:12
WW @New England>(@New England): - While Hashimoto's statements may suggests a paradigm shift and I think they do, remember that Merrill et al control th deriviative gold paper mkt in NYC. They will TRY to quell this like yesterdays bad fish. Remember they will try to create another paper induced situation where the price will not react to Japanese news. Well if it cant react to that it must be dead. If thats not the cast then notice how the xau fell in spite of the statements. ( i think this is bullish, see earlier post ) . Nevertheless, this development is important and will make Merrill's job much tougher and more precarious. The XAU investor non reaction to the news is a reflection of THE DEPTHS of BEARISH SENTIMENT REGARDING GOLD AND SILVER!!!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:06
aurophile tedrake@ibm.net>(tedrake@ibm.net): - double bottom in cash gold on hillary day. i luvvv it. gone to toast the supreme court. bbl.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:04
GFD Who Needs Lithium>(Who Needs Lithium): - Mike Sheller: Lithium NUTS!! I need nitro! A 300% boost in lease rates after all this BT stuff has me walking into walls and getting chest pains... ;- )
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:00
PB somewhere>(somewhere): - Mike Sheller: Every forum deserves its irrational exuberance, don't you think?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 20:00
WDL @my compliments>(@my compliments): - to APH: my compliments; you are right on the money! Caught the dip on
ABX...looking for the upswing. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:59
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- Even more than that, think of what they really must be thinking of our 'promise to pay'; our ability to pay! The monetary system of the world may be currently based on our paper, but that can begin to change whenever any one of the major players simply says 'no more'! Who wants to be left holding the bag? That's how fast it can happen! So far, it's talk. Bad enough. Should it reach the point of fact, then the world changes!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:56
Mike Sheller @cornucopia of euphoria>(@cornucopia of euphoria): - Hey, Hey! Keep the party down already. You'd think gold had risen ten bucks today. Maybe a visit to Kitco should be accompanied by some free doses of Lithium ( or maybe someone would go long the Lithium ) . Get a grip gang.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:55
PB somewhere>(somewhere): - WW: Well put about the jobs. A minor point, however: Clinton tried to get H. to wear the boots. H. refused.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:54
APH '''''''''''''''>('''''''''''''''): - Aug, Gold up 1.50, has been up 2.10
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:54
WDL @DSM-III>(@DSM-III): - Thank you Hashi, because of you no more lithium carbonate or tricyclics;
as Alex said in a Clockwork Orange, I'm cured! No more depression.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:50
WW @New England>(@New England): - If Hashi made anti dollar and pro gold statements/and knowing he is an insider/ He knows where to hit to make it hurt. It is proof of the authorities ( at least Western ) obsession with the poor metals. Wearing them cowboy boots must have made that hombre plumb mad.
But think of how those leaders must have felt listening to Clinton instruct them when they know our std of living is falling and many of the new jobs are temps 19% of workforce and the others are McJobs. How many Econ Grads in France do menial work
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:46
vronsky IS GOLD DEAD? (... in Japan it AIN'T)>(IS GOLD DEAD? (... in Japan it AIN'T)): -
In the light of gold’s sickly performance for many month’s, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metal’s history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/gold_dead.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:41
Puetz @ Prediction>(@ Prediction): - Prediction: Gold opens over $1 higher in over-night trading. Brave, ain't I.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:40
PB somewhere>(somewhere): - WW: Clinton apparently tried to make Hashimoto wear cowboy boots at the G-7, which made Hashimoto very upset. We live in interesting times.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:39
Puetz @ Mood shift >(@ Mood shift ): - Everyones spirits seemd to have turned 180 degrees from what I saw on Kitco this weekend. Anyone else notice
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:37
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - GFD: I'm sorry, but I don't have a good source for the daily gold-loan rate. I wish I did. I have lots of statistics packed away in my computer, but not that one. If you find a source, let me know.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:37
ted butler addendum>(addendum): - GFD - after the statement, that could be the lease rate very soon. Godd calls - Steve Puetz and APH
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:36
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Earl -- That's right! The 'rising sun' will be heating the water! A most important item number 2 in my book is that my wife has decided to move her 401K stock money to safer harbors today. In facr, already done! 'Course, 'those' safer harbors ain't gonna help in a hurricane!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:34
George S. Cole Paradigm Shift>(Paradigm Shift): - Earl and GFD: Fundamental paradigm shifts generally take time. But this probably is the beginning of the process. Convinces me more than ever that a new secular gold bull will begin this summer. Indeed it may already have begun.
I still doubt bullion will explode anytime soon. But $400 is going to be taken out decisively by mid-1998, and possibly considerably earlier. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:33
GFD New Paradigm>(New Paradigm): - ACW: Right on! We were reading each other's minds.
Earl: Well said. It is simply the threat that gold could be used in this fashion ( with possible covert accumulation off market ) that could change market perception of gold. More character development for the shorts!!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:32
WW @New England>(@New England): - The XAU going down while gold strengthens is the ULTIMATE BOTTOM indicator!!
For starter everyone thinks it is true that xau leads gold/if you followed that you would have been treated rudely for 9 out of 10 years including the last 4. The xau falling when gold rises is an indication that there is selling in the gold funds in anticipation of the next decline in gold which always follows and lately, and significantly in increasingly frequent fashion. The little strength in xau stks when gold weakens is the opposite phenomena. The stk or mutual fund or public money is exhibiting a bearishness I have never seen. That the bulls think the xau leads ( which it has in being misleading ) makes the falling xau all the more bullish as a contrary indicator when Gold and silver hold steady or strengthen. IE there is universal belief that these markets have no potential.
Clinton must have been unbearably arrogant at the G-7 summit for the Japanese Prime Minister to threaten bond sales. I am sure he wants to make Bill know who is boss. What is interesting is that Bill's Bluster shows he doesnt understand the situation. I have a Client in France and they were delighted when Chirac said the only part of the American Economic system he needed to import to improve the French economy was optimistic media reporting on the economy. My client related a statement from a local French paper which stated that the US Economy is robust on all front pages and television screens. I thought it humorous. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:23
GFD The UnLie>(The UnLie): - George S. Cole: I would say that given the apparent response by the market to Mr. Hashimoto's comments that the anti gold propoganda effort of the last several years has evaporated in an afternoon.
The key point here is Mr Hashimoto's implication that gold could act as a reserve currency in lieu of US dollars because it is politically neutral, giving dissident government/CB's alternatives to US Currency Bondage in current or future policy conflicts.
This changes the complexion of gold entirely.
Gold now becomes strategic insurance against US Imperialistic Hegemony - the Anti Barbarian metal. It also will act as insurance if ( or when ) the US economic system melts down. Those CB's with insufficient gold reserves will be seen to have put their country in a postition where it will be dragged down by an imploding US financial system. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:18
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - ACW: You're absolutely correct and furthermore, for the moment, the Japanese do not even have to make good on the threat in order to improve the outlook for gold. They need only keep the issue on the front burner for awhile and let the heat the radiate out into the greater investment community. ..... George: perhaps this is the beginning of your long awaited paradigm shift. ...... All in all one of the better days in terms of fundamentals.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:18
Donald 105636.2252@Compuserve.com>(105636.2252@Compuserve.com): - To:Bw re: House prices. That is 83.9 oz of gold for 1940. What is the median price today? How many oz?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:18
Tom piraz@usaor.net>(piraz@usaor.net): - Vronsky: Substantially less than MANY IN CHINA AND OTHER COUNTRIES.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:12
vronsky BUMBLING BANKS From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria”>(BUMBLING BANKS From Beijing to Brazil to Bulgaria”): - TOM: Super Bear STEVE PUETZ LETTER includes Bank of China & India among host of other tottering banks - & western world financial system’s Ponzi Scheme may topple markets:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/puetz527.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:07
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - More Gold: Another in the string of articles that fairly scream that the bottom for gold is at hand. It was interesting to note the analyst's comments regarding the high put to call ratio. In every other market that marker would be viewed as bullish but apparently not in gold. ..... Wonder why? Hmmm?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:07
ACW paradigmshift>(paradigmshift): - To All:
The gentleman from Japan just undid years of anti Gold propaganda, he told the world that Gold is the only true money.
That is a paradigm shift of major proportions.
Major paradigm shifts are always greeted with heavy bouts of denial.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:04
Oracle.TB1 Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Preface>(Oracle@japanese.SURVIVAL.Preface): - JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: “Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD!!”
EXTRA - EXTRA - Japan’s Prime Minister Hashimoto declares publicly that the Bank of Japan will sell T-Bonds AND BUY GOLD if the U.S./Yen exchange rate does not stabilize. IMHO this is only a ruse thrown out before the financial world in an attempt to shift the blame to the U.S. for the financial havoc which is about to be wrought.
If the Sumitomo Copper fiasco last year was any indication of how secretive the Nippon financial world operates ( i.e. a so-called rogue-trader lost about $3 billion in “unauthorized” Copper futures trading OVER A 10-YEAR PERIOD, UNBEKNOWNST TO HIS MANAGEMENT OR THE JAPANESE BANKING REGULATORS... ‘gimme’ a break, brother!! ) , then it will not be too long before the world discovers that Japan has been accumulating gold for some time.
I think the situation demands that I renew my series of “JAPAN BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD SPOT: Only Solution Is To Dump U.S. Treasuries and Buy GOLD!!”
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 19:03
George S. Cole Big Lies>(Big Lies): - Those tempted to take seriously the unprecedented anti-gold propaganda barrage of the western CBs and financial establishment should remember what Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebels had to say about lies and big lies. Namely the bigger the lie the easier it is to sell to the masses. And that includes most investors.
The frantic the efforts of the western CBs and their allies in the financial press to convince investors that gold is a barbarous relic with little value is merely the latest in along string of establishment Big Lies. A real whopper on a par with the oft repeated assertion that bear markets are extinct and bull markets are forever or the Bre-X gold find of the century.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:53
Tom piraz@usaor.net>(piraz@usaor.net): - BW: Who are the OTHER COUNTRIES? Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan?
You say, The asian economic machine.... In many cases their banks...are vastly over extended. ..., many loans will go nonperforming ( MANY IN CHINA AND OTHER COUNTRIES [cap's mine] are currently nonperforming during the boom! )
There is a banking crisis in Thailand, yet two of their largest banks -- Bangkok Bank and Thai Farmers -- have bad loans that total roundly 6% and 7%, respectively, of their portfolios. And, they are well covered by reserves increased voluntarily earlier in the year.
So, if these OTHER COUNTRIES have financial institutions that are in risk of default, or at the least poor provisioning, let's have some names.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:51
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - NBC News just reported that Hillary was to be brought back for questioning and an indictment was highly possible.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:46
ted butler gold lease rate>(gold lease rate): - GFD - it's gotta be a mistake, although I hope it's not.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:42
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - Este
Yes its possible that Hashimoto will reverse himself. However, what he said today came from his heart. He knows that one of the things the Fed and US gov fears most is the rise in value of gold ( foe obvious reasons ) .
For decades now the US has been treating Japan as its colony. Each day it becomes frightningly obvious that the US will never be able to repay their debt and that the US uses their allies to US advantage without any regard for their allies economic future.
Today two nations, China and Japan ( because of their holdings of US treasuries ) are nations that have most influence on the future of US economy. They each know that if one of them dumps treasuries it will affect the others holdings and that the first one to sell will be better off. Who will be first?
Probably Japan because Japan is scared! July 1, 1997 it will be isolated and surrounded by China in Asia. The US acts as if they are leaving Japan on their own. What is Japan to do? I think Japan is in a desperate situation and is attempting to force the US to help them. US will not. At this moment China is emerging as the most powerful player, and they ARE BUYING UP gold! Chinas leaders have one goal - political and economic WORLD DOMINATION! They will do whatever they have to to achieve this.
Hashimoto's statement revealed that Japan sees its situation as completely desperate!!! They are politically scared of China, and the US makes it plain that they have no concern for Japan economically.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:32
nomercy helpthem@ca>(helpthem@ca): - hashimoto off the cuff http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/business/wires2/f_0623_71.sml
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:30
MoreGold @ 15 LOWEST COST MINES IN S.A. CURRENTLY OPERATING AT BREAK-EVEN LEVELS>(@ 15 LOWEST COST MINES IN S.A. CURRENTLY OPERATING AT BREAK-EVEN LEVELS): - JACK and ALL: I found the FP article. Sounds GOOD to me.
If we read it correctly: CB's liquidate their Gold = Major Gold mines will close. This should put a floor on the Gold price not much lower than where it is now, and totally open on the upside.
GOOD call Steve Puetz.....
Saturday, June 21, 1997
Gold slumps to four-year low
By PAUL BAGNELL
Mining Reporter The Financial Post
The price of gold slumped again on Friday, hitting its lowest level in more than four years.
Experts said it may not be long before some of the world's higher-cost gold mines begin curtailing production because of low prices.
Gold closed Friday at US$337.70 an ounce in New York, down US$2.80 from Thursday. Friday's price was the lowest since March 30, 1993, when it dipped to US$337.
Experts blamed the fear of more gold sales by central banks in Europe.
Earlier this week, the central bank of Belgium said it might sell more gold, sparking concerns European central banks are becoming more willing sellers.
Pierre Lassonde, president of Toronto-based Euro-Nevada Mining Corp., said the worry created by the expectation of central bank sales is usually not justified by the actual amount of gold put on the market.
However, gold traders said several large commodity funds sold bullion Friday, mainly on the fears of more gold becoming available from Belgium.
The low-inflation economic climate in western economies further dampens the prospects for stronger gold prices, the traders said.
The game in town is the stock market, said John Ing, president of Maison Placements Inc. in Toronto.
Both Ing and Lassonde said the impact on gold producers is dramatic. No one is making money, Ing said. We are quickly approaching the time when we are going to see the closure of some high-cost mines.
Lassonde predicted mining companies will soon begin closing sections of mines, both open pit and underground, where production costs are higher.
The producers are really going to be squeezed. At some point, production is going to be affected.
At Friday's gold price, Lassonde said, the 15 lowest-cost gold mines in South Africa are operating only at break-even levels.
The average cost of production in South Africa is US$429 an ounce, making most mines in the world's dominant gold-producing country uneconomic.
Worldwide, the average cost of production was US$317 in 1996.
Tina Messina, chief dealer at Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto, said in recent weeks, gold trading had shown a flurry of buying each time the price touched US$339.
When that threshold was broken on Friday, a sharp drop became inevitable.
Messina predicted gold may soon be selling for US$335 an ounce.
A lot of put options have been bought, so it seems the sentiment is really going bearish, she noted
Put options allow investors to sell at a fixed price in the future. In effect, they are a bet gold prices will sink further.
Right now, this market has no reason to go up and every reason to go down.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:29
LB corp. welfare>(corp. welfare): - Hey WW - did you see TJ Rodgers article in today's WSJ editorial section? Check it out if you haven't...
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 18:00
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - ALL: Larry Wachtel of Prudential Securities gave this analysis of today's stock market performance: Bull markets are characterized by days like this, in proportion to the kind of advance we've had. If you're going to rise 600 points, then when you fall you're going to fall 192 points.... It's due for a little sell-off here. It's an ORDERLY DECLINE, but NOT AT ALL PANICKY. IT'S HEALTHY.
I wonder how big of a decline we will get when it does turn panicky?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:51
GFD Lease Rate Anomaly>(Lease Rate Anomaly): - DA [or anyone else]: Can you confirm the 1 month lease rate of 5.69% for today
I am surprised that no one else has commented on this! Steve Puetz, Ted Butler, where are you guys Can you confirm this?
BTW Bart's historical data which extends back to 1988 would indicate that today's one month rates are at a 9 year high. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:45
Auric EBN>(EBN): -
MURRAY: http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSMAIN.HTM - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:38
APH mistera@interaccess.com>(mistera@interaccess.com): - Everything is falling into place just as planned ( 6/9 18:23, 6/19 00:26 ) . Fidelity gold held up well today as the XAU dropped, if you followed these posts you should have been buying XAU calls today. I'm in the July and Aug 95's. ABX broke under 22-1/4 and should have been bought, the July 20 calls have almost no premium, keep stop at 21 as an open stop. The front month Gold ( JUNE ) hit 336.5 objective was 336. Aug. Gold should have been bought under 340 change stop to an open stop at 338. The lows for this down cycle should have been put in today for all these markets. We may go sideways for a few days but I expect to see up markets in gold for the next several weeks. At this point your risk is very low compared to the potential upside.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:38
Miro from outsider's bench>(from outsider's bench): - Hashimoto's statement may be just a confirmation of the trend described
in http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/23/y0004_z00_6.html
Main points:
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities weakened to an average $22.806
billion a month during the first quarter of this year from $30.089
billion in the final three months of last year, a Treasury Department
report on Monday indicated...
The United States depends upon strong foreign buying of U.S. government
securities, which are obligations to pay in future, to help finance the
total government debt that now exceeds $5 trillion.
As far as recent discussion about 401K money leaving ( or not ) the
mutual funds, the money does not have to get out of that pool before
the retirement time and still bring the market down. Most of the US
companies offer 401K plans where you can invest in a family of funds
and move money around without loosing your tax deferred status. Most
of these plans include some money market or gov. securities funds. If
the baby boomer saw the danger of loosing some of the paper wealth in
stock funds he can park the money in a money market fund ( and many of
them will ) . This means the money would leave stock funds without
leaving the 401K mutual funds pool.
In response to comments about disappointing reaction of gold to
today’s development, lets be realistic. The gold market is highly
speculative. Most of the participants on this list believe in gold
but at the same time most of them wait until somebody else makes the
gold go up ( meaning somebody must be buying ) . Well, if believers
wait on the sidelines why should non-believers buy?
I see many posts searching for stock market /and financial system
crash triggers. Many of them are highly speculative with low
probability to happen. On the other side the event which WILL happen
with 100% certainty - year 2000 in computer infrastructure - is not
considered at all. Folks, financial systems, economy, etc. is not
able to function anymore without computers and they WILL fail. Just
last Friday I talk to somebody correcting Y2K problem in major
financial institution. In a process of conducting a test, they hit
the error and incorrectly credited $60 millions to various accounts.
Just go and ask guys on a floor, in banks, or in companies, how long
they can conduct the business without damn computers?! The estimated
cost of post Y2K litigation was just increased to $1 trillion. Do you
still think that it will be just a small dent into financial system?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:35
Mike @>(@): - HASHIMOTO: here is an address to Hashimoto's statements in case you have not already read it: http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topten.html.
I don't think he will reverse himself too soon. Asians do not like to lose face. Isn't that great?
I like the line about haviing been tempted to sell US treasuries on several occasions in the past including the 1995 auto talks. The statement is brutal. The market has not yet fully digested the significance of this. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:35
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - ALL: The financial plunge continues in after hours trading. Sept Bonds are down 7. S&P futures continued to sell off after the NYSE closed. Based on current trading in S&P futures on the Globex, the Dow should open 50 to 60 points lower tomorrow morning.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:33
MURRAY HELP PLEASE>(HELP PLEASE): -
Lost my EBN url for overnite quotes. Anyone please post it.
This should be a sleepless night for any and all gold shorts.
ABOUT TIME. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:26
Este on Hashimoto>(on Hashimoto): - Let's not forget that Mr. Hashimoto is a politician and therefore his words should not be trusted. George S. Cole could be right when he said that he could reverse his position before the end of the week. He's going to face incredible pressure in a very short time and I don't think he'll be singing the same song in a couple of days.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:22
bw House prices>(House prices): - Intresting data out today. In 1940 the median house price was 2938.00. Adjusted for 1990 dollars it is 27,400.00. This gives you one of many downside targets for housing prices. House prices too are part of the mania.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:17
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - FUNDY: No argument re gold over stocks. Just posted the latest
thinking by one of Australia's leading business editors. I have been
waiting for a LONG time now for stocks to die in the rear end. With
1000 clients, it is TOUGH being a bear in a bull market. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:11
George S. Cole Big Trader>(Big Trader): - Big Trader: Beginning to look like you are on the mark. I hope to be able to extend the same congratulations to you that I extended to Steve Puetz today.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:09
bw Asia>(Asia): - The asian economic machine may have problems. In many cases their banks and the foreign banks ( esp. Japanese ) that service them are vastly over extended. Should the boom slow, for what ever reason, many loans will go nonperforming ( many in China and other countries are currently nonperforming during the boom! ) . This could prove a nasty economic surprise for the global economy. China would then have a valid economic reason to sell tbonds.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:08
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Earl -- One way is to simply ask them if they want to continue marketing their toys here. Not that we particularly have many other places to buy some of them from. But if the paper goes to hell in a hand-basket, that'll be the least of our problems. Anymore, we must all be one big happy family. Not that it'll help in the end. Perhaps this is the end? Nah. Not yet. Well, who knows.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:06
Mike @>(@): - STEVE PUETZ: Congratulations on your call yesterday. Perfect timing.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 17:05
George s. Cole a long and black night for gold shorts>(a long and black night for gold shorts): - Ray: The overnight action will be crucial. No guarantees but it could be a long and black one for the gold shorts and the thundering herd of long-term equity bulls.
Will Wayne Angell and his disciples get their heads handed to them? Here's hoping.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:47
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Simple Man -- What's your current thoughts about a further drop in the gold prices that you thought might happen before they turn? Re: the airplane posting.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:46
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Now the question is: How does the worlds premier debtor, control its increasingly surly creditors? .... Of course the Japanese will have a devil of time clearing their substantial position in any short period of time. Where would the buyers come from? Especially when the major consumer of US debt is exiting.
It seems to me that the sudden loss of CB solidarity will be as much cause for US consternation as the threat itself. Does anyone here have the candle concession for the Federal Reserve?
Is there a pattern developing here? We draw closer to the day when the Brits turn over the Hong Kong keys to the PRC and the Japanese decide to break ranks with the western banks. Perhaps they have seen the future and it does not include the west. Where is the next shoe and when will it hit the floor? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:43
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - Eldorado
I agree with you. Hashimoto's statement should be shown to all mutual funds 30 something managers and a question should be asked, WHY GOLD? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:41
NJ gold>(gold): - Hashimoto comment being reported again by CNBC. Earlier there were reports incorporation of Russia in G-7 was pressed for by Japan, so that Japan was not isolated in the Denver meeting. We are all well informed on the Western CBs relentless pressure on the price of gold. Today may well prove to be the day when the markets turned.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:36
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - George S. Cole- Do you think the statement came too late in the day for gold to get a good reaction.
What do you say GLENN - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:30
George S. Cole stock market outlook>(stock market outlook): - Steve Puetz: Congratulations on an excellent call! Still not sure if this is the beginning of the end for the bull, but it sure as hell is the end of the beginning.
I would have been happier if this drop had occurred on no news though. If Hashimoto has a change of heart, market could rally strongly later in the week. Gold's action was disappointing in view of today's potentially very bullish news. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:29
GFD It's the end my friends>(It's the end my friends): - I totally agree with SimpleMan. Hashimoto's statement is absolutely not to be treated lightly even if he were a western PM. But a brutal statement like this coming from someone Japanese is virtually a declaration of war.
Confirming data would be an explosion in lease rates such as the little pop in one month rates that Bart has posted. If the figures are correct we could be seeing some real financial fireworks to celebrate the reunification of Hongkong to go along with the gunpowder kind... - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:27
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - Simple Man -- You don't suppose that some of these paper purchasers have had enough and are now going to leave the table do you? Perhaps the Hashimoto statement is the first 'belch' with others to quickly follow!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:24
GVC @overnight action>(@overnight action): - Well, If there was a reason to watch the overnight action, the Hashimoto statement has to be it.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:23
panda @>(@): - For the newbies -- Checkout the WEB RESOURCES button at the top of the page. You will find many interesting and useful URLs there.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:19
Eldorado @quotes>(@quotes): - Gunrunner -- Check out http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCOMM.HTML-SSI for commodities, http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSCURR.HTML-SSI for currency, http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSBOND.HTML-SSI for bonds, and http://www.ebn.co.uk/HTMFILES/MKTSTOCK.HTML-SSI for world stock indexs.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:19
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - Hashimoto's statement is an indication of a riff between US and Japan. He realizes what is about to happen to global financial system.
All for themselves in times of crisis.
For him to make that statement in public is of HUGE significance! Prior to today all CBs and govs presented a united front when it came to gold. NO MORE. All countries will try to save themselves.
PUETZ is right. Today was a day of great importance. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:18
bw Dow utilities>(Dow utilities): - The dow utilities closed at 223.32 today putting in what is begining to look much like a double top. If this proxy for big long term money can close below 220. it is not going to look good for the stock longs. Those highly paid mutual fund managers are going to earn their money tonight.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:09
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Stock market plunges 192 points today. Stock market has peaked. Gold and silver have bottomed.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Gunrunner -- check out Barts web resource link button above. A marvelous button it is!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:00
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - Today's action was unexpectedly positive. But can it or will it last? Anyone willing to bet on downturn below 335 later in the week...?
Are there any good after-hour/overseas quotes for metals available? Sometimes Kitco doesn't update for hours. I'm also looking for a good source of quotes for foreign currencies after-hours. Anyone know of any?
Thanks
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:58
GFD Asian Gold Gangs>(Asian Gold Gangs): - Re Hashimoto: Gold may well become the Asian Solution.
( Where is that BART!!! ) - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:54
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
ALL:
Does anyone else consider this a Financial Pearl Harbour?
TTFN - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:51
Eldorado @the market>(@the market): - NJ -- As a quick comment to the Hashimoto statement, I guess gold isn't that barbaric of a relic that some others claim it to be!
Steve Puetz -- Did a bit of 'wading' in the metals futures today. 'Water' still a little bit cool, but the 'rising sun' ought to heat it up just fine! There is still a cloud lurking out there that may cause me to get out fast though. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:46
GFD Ahem, Cough, Cough>(Ahem, Cough, Cough): - BART!! BART!!! Is your one month gold lease rate in error OR IS IT REALLY 5.69%!!!!!!!!!!! ( YES!!! BT RULES!!! )
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:44
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
NJ:
Stand corrected...but he wasn't speaking very good English so I didn't recognise his voice hahaha ... god has spoken? Will the USA allow itself to be pushed in public? Don't think so !!!!
TTFN - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:39
NJ gold>(gold): - Front : That was no spokesperson. That was Hashimoto himself. They had a picture, speaking at Columbia U., if I caught it right
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:36
NJ gold>(gold): - CNBC just reported statement by Prime Minister Hashimoto, Japan may sell US treasuries and buy gold if Dollar Yen exchange rate not stabilized. He said this was also considered during negotiations with Mickey Kantor.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:35
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
All:
Just heard on CNBC that a Japanese spokesperson, in answering a question, stated that unless the USA cooperates on they BOT then the Japanese would not look unkindly to selling USA bonds and buying GOLD!
TTFN - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:28
panda @>(@): - Dow TICK approaching -1100, Dow is off 136.61. There was an interesting story in the headlines today about the US bonds being bought by Japan and Forex stability. Is it me, or is there a connection here?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:25
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com): - TO SCOTT: Thank you for providing an example of why teaching social skills should be included as part of all early childhood education programs. Your observations have been noted.
Also Mooney : Lease rates are just another way to express the difference between the spot price and the future prices. Analyzing the degree of contango or backwardation is no different than analyzing lease rates. LR=L-FR where LR is lease rate, L is LIBOR or prime lending rate, and FR is forward rate.
To all non-veteran traders: NYMEX has an excellent glossary of trading terms at http://www.nymex.com/new/glossary.html. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:21
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - Steve Puetz- CONGRATULATIONS ON A GREAT CALL!! Hope you did not mind me sending that ALERT out to a few of my friends.
Tally Ho - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:17
Jack Closures>(Closures): -
MoreGold: Once a mine shutters, you can count on 3 to 5
years -if ever- for a re-opening. Factors other than
just higher gold prices play their part, before they pull
their start up trigger.
The best joke at the Prague, ( Anti Gold Conference ) was
the one cracked by the astute Mining Journal. They said
that gold production would increase by 18.8 million
ounces annually over the next couple of years. They must
have been influenced by Wayne Angel.
I would like to see hard estimates on when Cerro Casale
will start production. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:14
panda @>(@): - TRIN = 1.60 TICK = -682 HMMMMMMM looks like some want to sell.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:14
vronsky MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VII) - AMERICA’S BANKRUPTCY>(MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VII) - AMERICA’S BANKRUPTCY): - Our mania to win at any cost is a Ponzi-like game. Our burgeoning US debt is a cancerous malady infecting John Q. Public. The Cure? Monetizing the debt:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:09
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Stock market now plunging. DJIA down 104 points. Gold up 1.60. Silver up 10.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:08
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Stock market now plunging. DJIA down 104 points. Gold up 1.60. Silver up 10.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 15:04
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - ALL: Gold has bottomed, silver looks great. The stock market has peaked. XAU has filled gaps. XAU may be ready to rally now, but gold will rally stronger than XAU.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 14:59
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - MoreGold: Did the Fin Post mention specific marginal mines that might close?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 14:42
Bob A stk>(stk): - Lotsa stock changing hands in the following. ABX, SSC, and PDG
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 14:36
Billd Mike S. - Sunshine>(Mike S. - Sunshine): - Mike...I was watching Sunshine and a 2.5 MILLION transaction took place at 11/16 then immediatedly popped back up to 12/16 ... 3/4. So someone moved a 2.5 million block at 1/16 under the market...!!! Big Move!!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 14:22
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Pizza Man: The December 700 put on the S&P 500 stock index gives you the advantage of selling S&P futures at 700 anytime between now and December 20th. Other advantages are you don't have to put up margin money as you do if you sell futures, and you aren't subject to margin calls. However, you can easily lose all of you capital on an option. The disadvantages are limited time for the speculation to work, and the S&P must fall 190 points before you really make any money. You should only use money you can afford to lose when trading options and futures. Read and understand an option prospectus before trading options.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 14:20
NEWS @for U>(@for U): -
LONDON, June 23 ( Reuter ) - Physical buying and short
covering as gold prices refused to fall below recent lows lifted
the market to near the top of Monday's narrow range by the
afternoon fixing.
Dealers said buying came as the price hovered between
$336.75 and $337.00 per ounce.
``It would have taken quite a push to get it down to $335.00
or so, and that just wasn't there,'' one dealer said.
Gold was fixed at $338.00 per ounce up from $336.95
this morning which was just five cents above the four-year low
struck on February 12.
Dealers said the weekend's Group of Seven conference was
seen to be dollar positive and the strength in the U.S. currency
was behind gold's shaky performance in the Far East and its
weaker tone in Europe this morning.
At the fixing the New York Comex August contract was
indicated up 40 cents at $339.80.
However dealers said the trend was still downwards and
today's support did not indicate a change in sentiment.
``If it gets back up to $340.00 or $341.50 we would see
selling bringing it back down and then we could be looking at
$330 or $325,'' a dealer said.
A move below February 12's low would take gold back to the
levels seen early in the brief 1993 rally when the well
publicised entry to the market of financiers George Soros and
James Goldsmith took the gold fix from a trough of $326.10 -- a
seven year low -- on March 10 to a high of $406.70 on August 2.
The firmer move in gold also raised silver prices which were
indicated at $4.77/$4.79 up three cents in a day's range of
$4.72-$4.80. Silver has failed twice so far this month to get
past $4.82-$4.92 on what dealers said were speculative plays.
``There is not that much happening in silver,'' one dealer
said and another said a further upward spike was forecast.
Platinum and palladium were mixed and volatile with both
prices moving in relatively wide ranges aided by a $5.00
bid-offer spread.
``They have lost a lot of their gains but have held on well
and there is a bit more left in them,'' one dealer said, adding
that neither price was to be trusted,.
Dealers said they were still looking for confirmation of a
start up of deliveries from Russia that have been delayed by
bureaucratic foul-ups since last December.
Platinum was at $418.50/$423.50 down $3.00 and palladium was
up $1.00 at $195.00/$200.00.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - ABX is churning 1 3/4 million shares after 4 hours of trading. Down 1 1/8 a moment ago. Is this selling climax or does someone know something about ABX that we should all know ..... but don't?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:51
MoreGold @FP>(@FP): - Anyone catch the article in the weekends Financial Post?
This is what I had mentioned that certain high cost Gold Mines will begin closing if price remains well under 340. This is the critical point for many mines to attain a bare minimum profitability. This is great for long term Gold prices. The CB's will supply the market and deplete their stocks, while the companies lower production.
The price will then have to rise well above the 340. level for these mines to restart producion, due to the high cost of shutdown and startup.
Short term pain, long term gain...... - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:50
Byron @ One More Day:>(@ One More Day:): - London AM Fix was $336.90 and the PM Fix was $338.00. The Feb 11, l997 ( ? ) recent lows were AM $336.90 and PM $337.70. Thus today the London gold Fixes missed setting new lows by $.05 and $.30. I feel we need a new low at this time to bring an end to this bear market. A new low will also confirm my long awaited signal that London Gold has been in a 9th wave down ( but not necessarily bottomed ) . Hope we get this final piece of the puzzle tomorrow.... Do like HUI's action today.... Correction: Today's morning fix was $336.95 and not $336.90. : )
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:39
ted butler silver warehouse stocks>(silver warehouse stocks): - To all;
I'd like to submit a line of thinking on Comex silver stocks that I have not seen discussed anywhere before. To the average observer, the current stocks of silver in Comex approved warehouses look rather substantial at close to 200 million ozs. While there has been some recent shifting of a bookeeping nature involving the additional warehouse in Delaware, that's for a different discussion, for now let's call it 200 million ozs, or one billion $ worth. Silver stocks on an ounce by ounce comparison with gold, platinum or palladium, certainly look heavy or ample to the naked eye. But appearances can be deceiving.
One of the phenomenons witnessed regularly ( and discussed here ) in the commodity world the past few years is that big upside moves occur only after inventories approach zero. By this measure we'll be waiting a long time for silver to explode, which is exactly the bear case. However, I submit there is another way of interpreting how close silver inventories may be to zero effectively, rather than just a raw count of ounces reported on the Comex. My premise is based upon common sense and the arcane world of weights and measures. Compared to total production or use, the levels of gold, platinum and palladium in NY warehouses is miniscule. Aside from the very real shortage of Pt and Pa, this makes sense to me from an investor point of view. By that I mean if I were to hold physical metal that cost hundreds of dollars for each ounce, it would seem silly to pay cash for 100 oz of gold ( $34,000 ) and accept a piece of paper in return for leaving it in a warehouse. After all, most people would buy gold or other precious metals as a diversification from paper. Well for $34,000 you currently get about 7 whole pounds of gold. I don't think the average physical gold purchaser couldn't lug that amount to his safe deposit box or backyard or where ever, especially since there has been precidence for gold confiscation in this country. So, low warehouse levels of gold, Pt and Pa make sense to me.
But for the same $34,000 you could currently buy 7000 ozs of silver or approximately 500 pounds. Get my drift? Because you get so much for your money ( my way of explaining it ) you have a real logistical problem with silver - you have to have someone store it for you and give you a piece of paper that represents ownership. What's the best piece of silver paper? As much as it pains me to say it ( because of the Hunt Bros, etc. ) - the Comex is the best place by far. It's the most liquid and transparent market and cheapest and a silver warehouse certificate that is Comex approved is the industry standard. If you are going to put serious money into silver, you go to the Comex, and everybody has and does. It is my contention, that of the 200 million ozs in the Comex a very substantial per centage is held for investment purposes that is not available at anywhere near current prices. If you wanted to buy $100,000 worth of silver ( 1400 pounds ) for cash and demanded the cheapest ( transaction wise ) safest, most liquid method you would go to the Comex. If you did, even if you wouldn't sell at less than say $10 or $15, your stocks would be reported in the daily inventory totals. And the bears would point to your stocks as proof that we had plenty of available silver. We'll see. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:28
Fidelity Update @fidelity gold funds>(@fidelity gold funds): - AS OF 1PM EDT:
FSAGX= $20.50 down .20 ( -.97% )
FDPMX=$14.56 down .12 ( -.82% )
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:25
Pizza Man captpepp@ct.net>(captpepp@ct.net): - All: I have been lurking at kitco for about 3 weeks and really enjoy
the postings. I am now a gold bug long on August Comex.
I need advice on going short on Sep. S&P or brief explanation on Mad Dog
strategy on his 06/23/97 00:43 post. Retired pizza man trying to sling
some new dough.
P.S. Sure do miss Ted's postings, Greeat jokes, Tort
Go BT GO BT - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:15
Mike Sheller outa here>(outa here): - PUETZ, ALL: Mentioning silver, has the gang noted Sunshine Mining today? Off a steenth on nearly 3 million shares! Let's watch where this baby closes.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:13
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - The silver chart looks good -- much better than the gold chart.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:13
Mike Sheller @lunch>(@lunch): - STEVE: Yeah, and you've heard it longest! FUNDY: It ain't the shoeless Chinese who are buyin' the gold. KOLORADO: I've been seeing a summer rally too, but time is running out. After late August, early September, the astro tide turns down again for gold. Winter bottom and THEN the big one. But I love & respect Arch. Astrologers are like tech analysts ( actually that's what they are ) two different ones can see different things in the same chart. THE BORGE: I essentially agree. LARRYN: I essentially agree. I have some experience with fragmentation as well.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:08
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Gold stocks will not do as well as gold coins in a stock market crash. Gold could move sharply higher while gold-shares hold steady or even decline.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 13:06
George S. Cole XAU/HUI>(XAU/HUI): - XAU off 3%, reflecting steep declines in ABX and PDG. But HUI down just 0.25%. An unusually wide divergence.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 12:59
Puetz @ Maddag>(@ Maddag): - Maddog: I'm curious. Did your broker let you buy the S&P puts?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 12:53
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Gold has bottomed. Stocks have peaked. You heard it first here on Kitco!!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 12:52
George s. Cole ABX>(ABX): - ABX getting smashed today, off nearly 5%. But some juniors are moving up.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 12:33
Larry eaglewg@flash.net>(eaglewg@flash.net): - XAU 95.0, falling past the gap.
For those fund investors wanting to see last week's fund damage, see http://www.eaglewing.com/compare.htm
So far its only getting worse. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 12:30
vronsky TO BUY LOW-PRICED STOCKS OR HIGH PRICED STOCKS (June 23, 1997)>(TO BUY LOW-PRICED STOCKS OR HIGH PRICED STOCKS (June 23, 1997)): - Veteran Market Analyst provides sound common-sense advise of whether it is smarter to buy low-priced stocks or high priced stocks. Dines Letter in Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 12:21
Fundy Bay>(Bay): - Steve at Perth: Enough of the share price justifies the stock market talk. We have our own reality here and the stock market is way way over priced and about to crash. Gold will then go up and we will all be right. So cut out the justified share price stuff before you are backed into a corner and start telling us the economy is booming and inflation is low.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:59
George S. Cole XAU>(XAU): - TORT: XAU weakness reflects heavy pressure on ABX and PDG. HUI about flat this morning.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:38
Tortfeasor Update>(Update): - XAU 11:37AM 96.38 -1.02 -1.05%
Not too impressive. Let's get a rally going. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:30
Steve (Perth-Western Australia) @BRW>(@BRW): - Editorial in Australia's Business Review Weekly
One of the reasons Wall Street is so strong is that the
profit of many US companies has risen sharply and
justified much of their share-price rise. Some Australian
companies will need to achieve similar profit gains to
justify their share prices. This applies particularly to
companies whose earnings have declined, including
building-products groups such as Boral, Pioneer and
CSR. All the signs point to a strong rise in construction
activity in the next two years, so it is likely that they will
achieve the required profit rises. Indeed, the next two
years should produce some vintage profit performances
over a wide area.
The BRW poll of chief executives shows that more than
65% of Australia's big non-resource companies expect to
increase their profit in the year ahead, and more than a
quarter in the manufacturing and wholesale/retail sectors
can be expected to announce substantial profit rises.
The area in which chief executives are most guarded is
resources. They have been predicting profit rises for
many years and have disappointed the market. As a
result, no substantial increases are expected, and less
than half think profit will rise at all.
It is a big call, but I think the resources chiefs might be
wrong. Since December the Australian dollar has fallen
from just above US80 cents to US75 cents. Australia is
talking about further interest-rate reductions while the
United States is expecting increases. If that happens,
the Australian dollar will fall further. The only thing that
could push the dollar higher is a rise in commodity
prices. The miners can expect a boost either from the
currency or commodities. If the Australian market is to
follow the US upwards on the basis of fundamentals, as
distinct from movement in interest rates, then the BRW
chief executives poll has to be right. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:28
M.Graves @Valley>(@Valley): - EBN Gold up .90 and silver up .07
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:05
EBN @11:00>(@11:00): -
EBN has gold up 60 cents at 11:00. ( sob ) - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:04
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - I was watching the kitco new york spot gold price and it said gold was up $6.50 giving a new spot price of $344. Its changed back to 338 now but check the todays high it says 344. It must be an error, but sure got me for a second!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:02
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold): - August gold up 80 cents a few minutes ago, according to DBC. But gold stock averages about flat. If the stocks don't follow bullion, this will be still another failed rally.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:02
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - Ah yes, gold rises with the new sun and on such a lovely day. Maybe we will yet have our day, we die hard precious metal insects. And speaking of gold and speaking of gold metals into which gold is formed by the potter's hand I submit the following:
Our story begins at the Olympics, specifically the wrestling
event. It is narrowed down to the Russian or the American
for the gold medal. Before the final match, the American
wrestler's trainer comes to him and says, Now don't
forget all the research we've done on this Russian. He's
never lost a match because of this pretzel hold he has.
Whatever you do, don't let him get you in this hold! If he
does, you're finished! The wrestler nods in agreement.
Now, to the match: The American and the Russian circle
each other several times looking for an opening. All of a
sudden the Russian lunges forward, grabbing the
American and wrapping him up in the dreaded pretzel hold.
A sigh of disappointment goes up from the crowd, and the
trainer buries his face in his hands for he knows all is lost.
He can't watch the ending. Suddenly there's a scream, a
cheer from the crowd, and the trainer raises his eye just in
time to see the Russian flying up in the air. The Russian's
back hits the mat with a thud, and the American weakly
collapses on top of him, getting the pin and winning the
match.
The trainer is astounded! When he finally gets the
American wrestler alone, he asks, How did you ever get
out of that hold? No one has ever done it before!
The wrestler answers, Well, I was ready to give up when
he got me in that hold, but at the last moment, I opened my
eyes and saw this pair of male private parts right in front of my face. I
thought I had nothing to lose, so with my last ounce of
strength I stretched out my neck and bit those babies just as
hard as I could.
You'd be amazed how strong you get when you bite your
own private parts! - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 11:01
Steve (Perth-Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Scott@the bank: Please post on Kitco the URL that you are looking at for the spot gold price. Thanks, Steve
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:50
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Can someone tell me what has happened. Is it a false alarm?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:45
LURKER @ THE VAULT>(@ THE VAULT): -
BT FOR PRESIDENT! - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:44
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Where is my Valium mmmmm 5mg ---- CLEAR --- CHECK PULSE
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:42
2weeks gasping_for_air>(gasping_for_air): - Where's my heart medicine? Mother! Come quickly! The day is here, at long last. Thank God Almighty, we're free at last!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:37
Terry@canada @lease rates>(@lease rates): - Something is happening blokes,look at 1 month lease rates.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:36
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Someone tell me its a error please, quickly.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:33
Billd Gold straight up>(Gold straight up): - What!!! Look at the gold spot chart...straight up...wow!!
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:24
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - What the hell happened to gold UP $6.50 HUH!!!!!!!!!!!1
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 10:03
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - For all those forcasting 401k's etc being taxed to blazes, check these
latest budget announcements in the United Kingdom, care of Blair's Socialists..... http://www.ft.com/Browns1stBudget/ftgnews.htm - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:41
vronsky IS GOLD DEAD?>(IS GOLD DEAD?): - In the light of gold’s sickly performance for many month’s, Gold Seer Aurophile examines the noble metal’s history, symptoms & prognosis. See Analysis section:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/gold_dead.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:35
Fundy Monday>(Monday): - Chairman: I don't know what they put on your TV but here we see Chinese people living in what we think of a slums built before WWII, knee deep in rice paddies and getting ready to take over Hong Kong. No sign of gold teeth let alone great piles of bullion being exchanged for $US.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:21
vronsky 20 REASONS TO SELL STOCKS NOW (June 23, 1997)>(20 REASONS TO SELL STOCKS NOW (June 23, 1997)): - Mega-Bear gives 20 advance signals calling for total liquidation of stocks - and taking refuge in gold & silver coins. See Steve Puetz Letter. Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:18
kolorado @Too good to be true>(@Too good to be true): - Mike Sheller, star gazers:
Why does Arch Crawford see inflation and p.metals increase at this point? I'm starting to see the equity markets gear up for their July swoon. But I don't see Gold moving for awhile. Clinton's bragging about our ( USA ) boom while us Dilberts know the despair in the corporate jungle. AG engineeered this boom and now he only knows how fragile it is. As I've said before, we've replaced bullion with the cult of AG. Guess maybe all the CBs will have to clone AG to keep their credit unworthy ships afloat. Wish I could sell AG futures on the Chicago BOT. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:18
Chairman Mao Little Beige Book>(Little Beige Book): - Fundy: Reality comes out of the mouth of a television. People will believe what our trusted mouthpieces spume forth: Rather,Jennings, Chun. If we say China is the new world power, and we support our talk with fawning sycophantic US government officials visits to appease China ala Chamberlain at Munich, why not?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:16
Larryn shootdown>(shootdown): - DOCDUKE and TWA800... From my limited experience with missiles which shoot down aircraft, some of which were aimed at me, a Surface to Air missile ( SAM ) usually explodes just prior to impact and a zillion fragments are expelled at the target, making many holes and dooming the target to non-flight. Sometimes explosions result. However, such a missile would have left many signs all over the recovered aircraft fuselage parts, which it didn't. A heat seeking missile would have flown up an engine and exploded, which it did not. TW800 went down when the entire front half blew off from a large explosion. I still have heavy doubts about a missile doing that. Tell me more.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:10
SimpleMan faraway>(faraway): - Worry not about the price of gold. I have learned from a well conected source that western CBs and govs are scared! All the press releases, studies and posturing are not for us small gold traders, but for China!
For the last 12 months China has been buying up gold and demanding delivery. Western govs don't care about you and I they can manipulate us. But not China. Time is VERY short indeed. Gold is about to hit the moon. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:07
Fundy Monday>(Monday): - Isn't it interesting that we are willing to believe that the Chinese are now the most intelligent investors on the globe and that they are, of course, buying gold at these prices, which we hope, are low. They have a recent history of 50 years of communism and dictatorship and currently are trying to get a national telephone system bought and installed to connect the piles of night soil guarded by what we would believe are shoeless gold barons.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:57
The Borge @renaissance Italy>(@renaissance Italy): - Mike Sheller: There can be no doubt that when the Dow collapses, there will be massive social unrest, rioting & chaos in America; martial law imposed in most of the big east and west coast cities. No doubt the Feds have been planning for this eventuality for some time - suspension of the US Constitution for a while, until order is restored - and of course, it will become permanent. A token Congress to carry on the fascade of democracy - just like the Roman Senate post Caesar. This is the price we pay for allowing the informational poison to flow unchecked from Hollywood & television - they do absolutely influence and mold people's minds ( if they didn't, then commercials wouldn't be on the air, but they are, so commercials must work, and what is a commercial but a very short movie? ) . I agree that the mainland Chinese are probably buying gold cheaply & quitely at these low rates - they at least, are not duped by the prolefeed spinning out of The Tarnished House, ABC, CBS and NBC. The Yuan will be the new world currency, not the suitable-for-rolling-and -placing in your bathroom Federal Reserve Confidence Note.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:50
trader ed traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com): - CNBC's California, the quiet boom, has not yet reached my corner of Southern California. The Palmdale-Lancaster area, population 200,000 to 250,000, has by a recent estimate, between 5000 and 6000 vacant foreclosed houses, with 20 t0 30 per week being added to the total.
About three years ago, an escrow officer told me that 100% of her residential escrows were short-pays. A short pay is when a lender agrees to accept, as payment in full, an amount less than is owed on the mortgage. She said her short-pays were averaging about 70% of the mortagage balance, with some as much as 50% of the balance owed.
My residential rental vacancy rate is about 40%, which is better than the 50% vacancy rate I enjoyed a couple of years ago. My rental income is down about 65 to 70%, because of vacancies, and reduced rents. My net worth, because of the crash in real estate values is down well over 50%
For those of you who are stock market bulls, and believe that a crash cannot happen, take it from a survivor, ( so far ) of the real estate crash is California, it can and will, sooner or later, happen in the stock market as well. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:41
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold): - August gold down 70 cents this morning. Will today be the final spike down? Only the shadow knows.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:35
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - GOLD UP IN NY OPEN!!!! GO GOLD GO ........... DOWN THE DOW
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:35
Bob A bargains>(bargains): - If I was short gold I would be looking to cover this wk. BGO and SWC look very good to me, especially with another dip today. ECO maybe?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:29
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Kitco quote is still June 20th mmmmm KITCO YOU $%#$%$#
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:23
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Kitco Comodity page says NY gold up 95c but market not open yet !!!?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:14
Mike Sheller catchup ketchup>(catchup ketchup): - REIFY: Hi Reify! Re: China - The Yellow Peril is gold. The Chinese are very smart. It's a no-brainer! They buy gold with all their trade dollars while it's in the pits. They not only build a base for the convertibility of the Yuan, but they position themselves to be the only solvent super power when the western paper circus blows out of town. ARDEN: Re: Hillary bucket slop -If we know, why doesn't the rest of the world understand? THAT is precisely why gold bullion should be on the shopping list of the wise. The rest of the world doesn't CARE about a lot of things - especially those things that make for a healthy civilization. Perhaps the moment goldbugs have always awaited is not far off. The end of Western Civ. as we know it. The barbarians are here. They are us. Agree with your sentiments about Kitco - it's the very pulse of gold!
6PAK: Your blast from the past ( 23:22 ) appreciated. RJ: Cogent analysis of the Hillary/Tyson under-the-table hedge. THE BORG: I see you fancy yourself a warner. I usually don't bother taking out little snipers, but YOU are irrelevant, not Freedom. However, I will defend your right to mouthe innocuous platitudes. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:06
panda @>(@): - Scott -- It should be interesting to see where the US Long Bond goes from here. Gold? Well... we know where they want it to go. I haven't checked the Globex yet, the half hour before the New York open is often telling.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:02
panda @>(@): - Truly, despondency has hit an extreme here.... What to short today? What to go long? Clearly gold is in the dumpster. I guess I'll have to wait for the safe to hit the ground, bounce, and when it is safe to do so, load it on the back of the truck for the cost of scrap metal. :- ) BBL.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:01
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Panda: I'm here in Brisbane Australia tonight; waiting for NY gold to open and a further drop in gold. One eye on the footy on TV and other on Internet for any surprises like a stock crash ( Is that a dirty word? ) .
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 08:00
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Panda: I'm here in Brisbane Australia tonight; waiting for NY gold to open and a further drop in gold. One eye on the footy on TV and other on Internet for any surprises like a stock crash ( Is that a dirty word? ) .
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:59
panda @>(@): - Frankfurt gold fix was $337.06 at 7:30 A.M. EDT
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:56
panda @>(@): - OK, things are looking grim. Tortfeasor, where's the joke of the morning? Is everyone lurking and I'm talking to myself?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:51
panda @>(@): - Scott -- based on the current mood, no. I'm looking for a selling climax here. I think that we are going to test the 1993 lows. The one fly in that ointment, is the large physical demand that seems to be coming from Asia?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:47
panda @long.summer.ahead!>(@long.summer.ahead!): - sinking gold prices;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/23/z0009_248.html
Russia's gold reserves;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/23/z0009_301.html
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:44
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Ok, the CBs have stuck the knife in, but do they have to turn it as well? Does anyone expect a bottom and a rally any time soon?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:40
panda @>(@): - I think an SM-2 found the air-ship gold. It's going down, $1.05.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 07:38
panda @>(@): - DocDuke -- SM-2 Block IIIa and Block IV. That story has great plausibility.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 05:54
The Last Goldbug China/Hong Kong>(China/Hong Kong): -
When Hong Kong is returned to China; does Hong Kong still
control their foreign currency reserves, or, are they to
be controlled by China? My belief; they will be China's.
Will the HK$ eventually become the Renibi ( I think that
is the Chinese currency is called ) or will the HK$ be
another medium of exchange for China to trade with?
I am sure that; if China were too quietly demand that
Hong Kong buy gold and keep it off the official
registers, that Hong Kong would have little choice, but
to do so. This, if it comes when gold is at its present
low price, makes some sense.
Or are the spin doctors trying to convince China and the
rest of the world, that gold no longer has a place as a
reserve asset? That is by the recent attacks on gold.
Or; are the shorts sweating it out? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 02:25
Strad Master Missed ya!>(Missed ya!): - ARDEN: It's nice to see you posting again. It's been a long while and I've missed your nightly COMEX stocks reports. ( Even though I can get the info. elsewhere, it was always nicer to have your commentaries. ) Please post more often. You always have much to say.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 01:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - 6pak @23:22: Think it will be any different this time around?
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 01:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Arden: ... why doesn't the rest of the world understand? Because they don't want to. It's more important for our modern press, to maintain their access and continue to bask in the reflected glory, of our tarnished royalty. ..... Spud's earlier posted expands on the subject.
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 01:24
DocDuke TW 800 and JFK>(TW 800 and JFK): - To Panda, George Cole and GFD re: Downing of TWA-800 and Kennedy.
Panda: The version I heard was that it was extortion. The Gore committee quickly came up with proposals including matching EVERY bag with its owner. The airlines realized that would kill domestic air travel, so money changed hands, and the administration quietly dropped the plans.
George Cole: The story on the Kennedy assassination is going to finally come out this fall. Mr. Lawrence X. Cuskack, Jack Kennedy's lawyer, kept a box full of VERY important documents on Kennedy activities. It was discovered two years ago, and the documents were thoroughly checked out ( ABC took out a $1 billion bond that they were authentic ) . Laramie Productions is making a mini-series out of it, and Seymour Hirsch has the book already in galleys, tentatively titled: The Dark Side of Camelot, The Untold Story of John F. Kennedy. However these won't be out until October or November ( Tom Cloud, a U.S. financial advisor is coordinating all this, and his customers have bought the documents, for auction after the publicity. )
GFD: This is what James Saunders says ( and Bo Gritz confirms in his newsletter ) : The U.S. had major damage from an anti-ship missile in the Gulf; it turned out their state of the art AEGIS missile cruisers had their defenses turned off -- so they turned them on, and shortly thereafter, downed an Iranian civil airliner. The U.S. Navy wanted to fix this problem, so they started an Advanced Technology Demonstrator called the Cooperative Engagement Capability ( CEC ) . Its purpose was to develop the capability kill a missile, with an anti-missile, in the presence of jamming, radar ground clutter, and neutrals such as airliners. This program was run by Admiral Edward K. Kristiansen. Before CEC could be declared operational, it had to undergo a final demonstration in which jamming, clutter and neutrals were present. An Army unit on Long Island launched the BQM-74E drone, and air national guard choppers were in the air monitoring the operation. The anti-missile, a Navy Standard IIIA or IV ( Saunders isn't sure which ) was launched over the horizon by a Navy AEGIS missile cruiser. The Standard was supposed to be guided by radio from the AEGIS, which was getting radar and IR information from a P-3 and several other sources closer to the drone, evaluating this data, and guiding the missile. Unfortunately, the drone's jamming was too good, and the AEGIS lost all target information. In the absence of command guidance, the Standard simply went for the biggest thing it could find.
Your kalliste postings are from people who do not have second-hand knowledge of the actual investigation. Sanders found someone inside the Calverton hangar that was involved in the investigation. The FBI took things out ( presumably including missile parts ) without any accountability. Saunders has copies of correspondence from the NTSB to the FBI asking for information about their results. Sanders even got material from the seats with the red substance that media reports said was adhesive. He had chemical analysis done that suggests it is rocket exhaust.
Of these two confidence-shaking disclosures, the TW 800 book is much nearer term -- the question is how well it will be suppressed. The Kennedy disclosures are of less concern to the current administration. My point is that IF the Sanders book takes off, there will be major repercussions to the government, and probably markets.
[For readers asking what this is about, please see the posting at Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:31 .]
- Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 01:06
Mike @>(@): - REIFY ( 7:45 ) Credit contraction and deflationary collapse: Cash is king.
Inflationary collapse: cash is trash.
Credit does not become worthless, it dissappears. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 00:43
MADOG hUH>(hUH): - sPEAKING TO MY BROKER on friday. I wanted a quote on a Dec. s&p 700 PUT. B4 he bothered to get a price ,he informed me that I was really fishing now. I asked why 700 by december of this year is such an outrageous level. His response.....It could never happen because it would mean a serious financial crisis!!!!!! Cause and effect?/Effect and cause? Logical and ilogical? What an incredible and yet so credible reply. Who says history does not repeat itself.
P.s. Anyone know of any good Short Mutual funds based in Canada? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 00:35
A&B@Reify ()>(()): - Good points. It would also be discouraging that if sometime in the future a decent runup in the price of metals makes a country like China
much wealthier ( to buy more weapons and gain more leverage ) and paper
heavy countries in weaker positions. - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 00:27
Reify @agreeing>(@agreeing): - ARDEN, Weird that you posted;
My personal suspicion is that China has
been accumulating the gold sold by European CB's with the excess US dollars from trade and that eventually,
this will be obvious to everyone. I can not believe that the Chinese will follow the example of Japan and buy
US bonds with the excess trade surplus. This will only continue to grow, as will their desire for gold. They do
not have to assault comex, it will happen when the shorts realize where to physical metal is, and yes, it is
offshore!
As I've been thinking about the China thing this weekend, and concluded that the chinese with surplus earnings have been accumulating both gold and US Paper, the latter is a good way to have a lever against the US, when deemed useful.
Sorry about taking your posting out of context, but the point is similar.
There was much hype some years ago about the yellow peril, but that was usually meant for public consumption, in regards to the military threat, and was good for the military complex- industries. Now it seems the threat may become real, but may come in the form of an economic lever.
Ain't life stange? - Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 00:10
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Gold making a grand standing at the moment!
I think tonights ( American Monday ) rally should be something not to be missed! I think you will see gold rally back above 340-342 tonight...
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:56
Nick @ Deaner>(@ Deaner): - Scotty here's Deaner's URL
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/8139/
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:44
Arizona Star and Bema Watchers @and yes I do own a little>(@and yes I do own a little): - Bema expects offers on Chile project soon
Reuters Story - June 20, 1997 19:50
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, June 20 ( Reuter ) - Bema Gold Corp, which claims its Cerro Casale property in Chile is the
world's biggest undeveloped gold project, said Friday it
expects a major mining company to propose a deal on the
project by the end of the summer.
Bema owns 49 percent of Cerro Casale and Arizona Star
Resource Corp has 51 percent. Bema owns 33 percent of
Arizona Star.
Bema president Clive Johnson told the company's annual
meeting on Friday that 20 major mining companies are looking
at the project and 12 have visited the site. Some of them are at a very advanced stage of due diligence, he said.
What I think is that in the next two to three months we
are going to get into some serious offers. In fact it could
happen very shortly, he said.
Johnson told Reuters after the meeting that Bema would
probably give the mining companies until the end of August to
submit their offers.
Bema's preference would be for a mining company to make a
takeover bid for Arizona Star.
Bema would be able to influence that deal by refusing to
tender its stake in Arizona Star unless the bidder offers a
favorable price, is willing to arrange financing for a mine at
Cerro Casale and is a compatible partner for future
operations, Johnson said.
He reiterated that Bema would not sell its stake in
Arizona Star unless it was part of a takeover of the entire company.
Even if such a deal does not materialize, Bema will push
ahead with development plans for the property which is so far
estimated to contain 27.4 million ounces of gold and 7.6
billion pounds of copper.
Cerro Casale is today the largest undeveloped gold
project in the world. We believe it is the best, Johnson said.
Bema plans to release detailed engineering analysis on the
project in the next 10 days. Johnson said it was likely to put
the cost of building a mine there at US$1.2 billion.
Production would be 800,000 ounces of gold and 250 million
pounds of copper a year over 18 years.
Based on projections of US$375 an ounce for gold and US$1
a pound for copper, proceeds from the copper would defray all
the costs of producing the gold, Johnson said.
When the capital cost is included, the cost of producing
the gold would be about US$100 an ounce. This is a phenomenal
project, he said.
Another alternative for developing the project in the
absence of a deal with a major mining company would be for a
major Japanese copper producer to invest in the project in
exchange for a 30 percent stake. Bema would then propose a
merger with Arizona Star, Johnson said.
Johnson said Bema's Refugio mine in Chile was not likely
to meet its expected production of 250,000 ounces of gold this
year because of mechanical problems at the site. It is likely
to produce in the lower 200s, Johnson said.
Nevertheless he said exploration success at the property
may ultimately enable production to be expanded to as much as
400,000 to 500,000 ounces a year.
At the meeting, Bema announced it was dropping a plan to
authorize the issuance of up to 11 million stock options as
incentives to staff because of complaints from shareholders.
-- Cynthia Osterman ( ( Reuters Vancouver Bureau ( 604 ) 664-7314 ) )
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:30
Tortfeasor long day>(long day): - Actually I ment tell many tales.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:29
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Gents and ladies, it looks like gold and silver are inching down yet a bit more. I suspect that this next week will tell many tells as to the direction of things. I must confess that I did not think that gold would fall below 340 for very long. I still don't but may think my position. I'll bet Ted is having withdrawal pains already from not inputting data at this site.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:27
panda @>(@): - Time to watch the REAL news, er, Babylon 5. I think the show is much closer to reality than the news or the wire services. ;- ) ) Space aliens seem, somehow, more friendly than the gold market. Good night all... And Scotty, stay away from those graphics! Not to get too techno geekish here, but I'm running a slow P-90 with 64 Meg RAM under NT 4.0. Funny thing though, it doesn't get my broker to their job betterer. Yes D.A., Regal does have a better deal, but this is almost comical with Schwabee. ALMOST....
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:26
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com): - Savage - yeah there is a book, and you are reading it! I have been a member of this group almost from the beginning and I will tell you, it doesn't get any better than this! No one member has any answer for everything or everyone, but the collective wisdom of this group and the spin-offs it has generated is as good as there is. We all have our own ex[eriences which are freely shared with others. Sometimes if we have nothing to say, we say nothing at all, we only lurk. Personally, I try to check in with this group twice per day, depending on my work load. It is an absolutely great source of information and opinion.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:22
6pak Prosperity @ Perfection>(Prosperity @ Perfection): - Golden glow, Golden age 1920's. Before the crisis of 1929 the 33,000,000
wage earners in the USofA received an average of $25.00 per week. More
then half of the country's workers fell below the average and less than
one tenth were earning as much as $40.00 per week. As for women workers
thirteen states surveyed was $16.36, and lowest was $8.29 in Mississippi.
Hoover Committee on Recent Economic Changes, reported speed up and new
machinery had increased productivity per worker by 53.5 % in eight years
ending in 1927 in manufacturing and by 17 % on railroads. A work week
was 54.6 hours in steel and 53.4 hours in textile, and 60 hours in
street labouring. During the great prosperity, there were 4,000,000
unemployed.
But the age was golden, mighty golden, for investment bankers. A total
of $2,928,000,000 in profits from speculation on Wall Street was recorded
for 1928 in tax returns. Most of it went to the one-tenth of one per cent
of the population which was getting richer, the remainder to a stock
buying middle class which was then in the process of being taken.
To the plucked the ways of the great seemed the ways of the con man. But
a really artistic criminal is so crooked that he believes he is honest,
and so it was with the Mitchells and the Whitneys, the Morgan partners
and the representatives of the National City Company, Dillion Read, Lee,
Higginson, and Chase Securities as they testified before the Senate
Committee on Banking and Currency in 1933 and 1934.
The public never had a chance wrote Ferdinand Pecora, council for the Senate Committee, in his book Wall Street Under Oath.
Mr. Baker and his associates in the banking fraternity, there was nothing
wrong in their business transactions. It seemed only the normal funct-
ioning of private enterprise. Was it their concern if bonds were
defaulted or stock market prices collapsed and millions of suckers not
in the know were ruined? Their function was to float loans, from pools,
drive securities up and make a killing.
The Kolster Radio Corporation, in 1928 was on the verge of bankruptcy,
its earnings virtually nil. Rudolph Spreckels, chairman of the company
and a sound businessman, saw his failure as a golden opportunity if
handled according to Wall Street standards. He called in George Breen,
the hero of a hundred pools and a figure of great respectability, who
by a few simple routine moves cheated the public of millions of dollars
while handing Spreckles a profit of $19,000,000 on its sale of
worthless stock.
Mr. Breen, testifying before the Senate Committee, was very modest. He
really hadn't done anything that everybody didn't do and it was really
a very minor transaction scarcely worth the Senate's interest. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:14
Scotty @scream.machine>(@scream.machine): - Panda: nice to see you again! And I love your graphics! Yup, I'm sittin' here with a 266, 64MB, and more bells and whistles than I know what to do with. As a matter of fact, the bells and whistles came with their own bells and whistles!! T-3 line? You're right -- it won't be moving the gold market. I guess I'll have to just get by with my T-1 FDDI backbone.
So, how about that Hong Kong :- ) )
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:12
Tom soros@what.now>(soros@what.now): - Sources said the central bank's action is aimed directly at Soros
with the ultimate aim of wiping him out and extracting a costly
revenge.
Reported by The Nation, 23-06-97
( Oh, what they do! )
Speculation worked on a pure short-run profit motive. It does not
care what might happen to the targeted country as the result of
greedy action. It is an evil factor hidden in the name of 'free market
forces'. Therefore, it cannot be respected as the work of true market
mechanisms.
-- Bangkok Bank Chairman on currency speculators - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:08
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com): - Puetz and RJ - thanks to both of you for expressing exactly what I suspected happened with Hillary. If we know, why doesn't the rest of the world understand?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:06
Savage ....>(....): - ARDEN; PUETZ: Thank you...is there a book on this subject? D.A.: Do you think Tiger may try? ALL: Where will the price of good real estate go ( 1 ) after a crash of stox; ( 2 ) during a bear? Will cash or physicals be king?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:04
ted butler silver stocks>(silver stocks): - Any comments or info on the recent decline in Comex silver stocks? After a slight build we've come off 17MM oz in less than two weeks to a 1997 low of 186MM. If you net out the bookeeping entry from Delaware on Jan 1, we're at multi -year ( 10+ ) lows. The recent decline while not gigantic, comes a week before delivery for July, when we normally build. Thanks
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:03
Harry C pages.prodigy.com/option.force>(pages.prodigy.com/option.force): - Panda - Sorry, don't know why it's not listed with the SPX's. Keeping up with the letter changes is a real problem for stock indexes option traders in this bull run. I like the futures symbols much better, they use numbers one can count on.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 23:01
panda @>(@): - Scotty -- A P-II-266? Wow! Now if you could get a Fiber optic hookup to a T3 provider.... Never mind, it wouldn't make the gold market move any faster! :- ) )
Have fun with that screamer PC. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:57
Scotty @where's.deaner?>(@where's.deaner?): - I haven't seen Deaner and his Prudent Trader since I got back up on line. Is he still around? Anyone know his URL
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:54
panda @>(@): - Harry C -- What exchange is the SXBIT option traded on? CBOE doesn't list it. Schwabees website does give a quote for this option as you stated. I can't seem to find the exchange that trades it though. Nothing like standardization ( did I spell that right? ) . All in all, what's a hundred Dollars on the the strike price anyhow? :- ) )
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:53
Scotty @new.goldbug>(@new.goldbug): - I noticed that you just noticed that the gummit is printing an excess of $100 bills. Don't forget the 50's, 20's, 10's, 5's and a whole boatload ( or two ) of 1's. That one of reasons it's called inflation. And one of the reasons a whole bunch of folks like to hang out here!! :- ) )
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:46
Scotty @new.locaton>(@new.locaton): - Hi everyone!! Well, I'm back up on the net and all moved into my new location ( complete with spanking new P-II-266 computer ) in the Rocky Mountains! It's taken about a week to become send capable, but it's sure been fun lurking! It's nice to see all the old regulars ( George C; Ted; Tarnished; BT ( sic ) ; Earl; and Cherokee. And it is nice to see all the new faces with new ideas!
As for me, I've been quietly buying bullion ( eagles ) and boosting up my gold mutual fund on every dip down. We've been at the bottom for some time now. So I am just as eager as everyone to see a move in our direction. Summer? What happened to the Japanese banking crash some of you predicted for right about now? Oh well.....risk management at its finest!! Cheers to all!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:45
Puetz @ RJ>(@ RJ): - RJ: You used the term I was looking for -- bucketing the trade.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:43
Puetz @ correction>(@ correction): - I believe Hillary's broker was Refco -- not Revco.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:42
RJ Bucketing the Trades>(Bucketing the Trades): - Arden - At the end of any given day, a floor trader has X number of winning trades, and X number of losers. The winners were funneled to Hilary, the losers to Tyson Foods. This practice is more common than some may think. Since the floor trader is the one primarily responsible for the fills, Hillary had very good plausible deniability. I think if the records were closely scrutinized, Hillary’s amazing stretch of good luck corresponded to an identical run of bad luck for Tyson.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:42
Puetz @ Hillary>(@ Hillary): - Arden: I have been involved with the futures industry for 25 years. At the time Hillary was trading with Revco, Revco was notorious in the industry for putting in lump-sum trades for multiple accounts, then they waited to see if the trade went in their favor or not. If it was a winning trade, they gave it to their preferred customers. If it lost, they gave it to regular discretionary accounts. I agree, Hillary made her money in this way. It was buying political favor on Revco's part.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:41
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com): - D.A. - so, if you must control the supply of a commodity physically, before you assault the Comex, then what is going on with gold? It would seem to me that during all of this pessimism that it would be an oppurtune time for some smart traders or investors or CB's to accumulate the physical metal during dips in the market and then, at some future time, to assault the comex or hedge funds or ? My personal suspicion is that China has been accumulating the gold sold by European CB's with the excess US dollars from trade and that eventually, this will be obvious to everyone. I can not believe that the Chinese will follow the example of Japan and buy US bonds with the excess trade surplus. This will only continue to grow, as will their desire for gold. They do not have to assault comex, it will happen when the shorts realize where to physical metal is, and yes, it is offshore!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:25
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com): - Now Puetz, you know and I know and most of the people woh read this forum also know that there was NO WAY that Hillary simply has a good commodity broker ( is that an oxymoron? ) . She was simply taking a bribe through this kind of conduit. As far as the Hunts are concerned, yes they would have failed due to their extreme leverage ( in futures and otherwise ) , BUT had not the rules been changed, they would have taken down a lot of the 'establishment'.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:22
Harry C Option.Force.Monitor>(Option.Force.Monitor): - D.A. - Did you notice the perfect expiry for SN7 at 832 noon Friday, as predicted?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 22:14
Harry C ujnv15a@prodigy.com>(ujnv15a@prodigy.com): - Panda - Have enjoyed your posts greatly. However, your post of June 21 @16:30 re SPXIT at a price of $113 is in error. I checked the prices and found that option is the Sept 800 call. The symbol for 900 call is SXBIT, which had a price Friday of 37.75. Given Friday's close at 898.70, the breakeven-point is a 4.3% gain in three months, or 18.5% at an annual rate. This may be slightly high, but is in line with recent experience. Personally, I would prefer to sell this option for $19K rather than be a buyer, IF I could afford the margin.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:52
Puetz @ Hunt Brother's failure>(@ Hunt Brother's failure): - Arden: What you said is true. The CBOT did change the rules and the margin requirements. But the Hunts would have failed regardless of what the CBOT. The truth is the Hunts were way over their heads in debt. Even if silver would have gone to $70 or $100, and then finally broke the Hunts still would have gotten massacred. Their problem was they kept buying more silver on margin with the profits they made on their earlier trades. This method of leveraging up profits is extremely dangerous and is nearly 100% sure to break anyone that plays the futures market that way -- unless you happen to have a good broker like Hillary did.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:49
D.A. lessons.learned>(lessons.learned): - Arden:
This is why Tiger fund has worked the physical markets and the OTC markets in Pa. They know when push comes to shove that the goods have to be offshore and out of the perview of exchanges. I suspect that when the next silver run is engineered it will mostly happen outside of the exchanges. Once the external metal has been collected then they will go to work on the Comex. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:45
Mr. Noodle @Investor Soup>(@Investor Soup): - Alright, alright! I was just rattling my tin cup along the prison bars. What, me give up my gold, silver, platinum, osmium, rhodium, technetium, seaborgium - ( W. Churchill more: Never! We shall fight you on the beaches, in the streets, from our Macintosh System 8s ) . Obviously this rise in the Stock market is FALSE - based on nothing but the perception of the Boomers that it is their retirement salvation - even though they KNOW the rise is not based on tangible product, growth or profit - but merely a bleed'n INDEX being chased! Extradinary delusion of the asses ... er masses indeed!. It will be marked by Gen-Y'ers as perhaps the greatest con of this century - the Political Class cabal's last, desperate scheme to hang onto to power by piping inflation into the market. But attend: there can be no soft landing. The DOW will soar to the penultimate heights of delusion ... then the reckoning - suddenly - like too much La Madeline creame brule. All must play in the game - no one allowed to cash their chips in and take the winnings home.
We are not the same people we were in 1929. There was then still a belief in the old values, family, country - even if the Lords in Boston and New York laughed at our quaint & outdated beliefs. Now they will find themselves surrounded by the fruition of their amoral, dumbed-down city masses - people who have the same amoral perspective as they themselves. Who will heed calls to patriotism, calm, sacrifice then? The Nike generation? The Taco-Bell neck injury crowd?
( This apocalyptic vision brought to you by Liberalism - if you earned it, we've got a right to it. )
Spud - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:45
Puetz @ Something's a brewin'>(@ Something's a brewin'): - ALL: No news that I know of, but something big is happening to the stock market. After the 4:00 pm NYSE close on Friday, S&P futures fell about 4.50 points. In over-night trading tonight, S&P futures are down another 1.85 points. Based on this action, the S&P cash index should open tomorrow down more than 6 full points. That means the Dow Industrials will open down 50-to-60 points tomorrow.
If you haven't aready done so, read my bulletin just posted today on Gold Eagle's Gold Digest -- The Steve Puetz Letter -- 20 reasons to sell stocks immediately. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:41
The Borg you will be assimilated>(you will be assimilated): - Mike Sheller: Resistance is futile. Freedom is irrelevant.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:40
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com): - Savage - re. the Hunt Bros failure. They did not fail because of the scrap silver coming to the market. The rules were changed on them. As I recall, six of the seven members of the Board of Govenors of the Comex were short silver in their accounts. The rules were changed so that only bonafide hedgers could sell silver and you could only buy with very little margin. It is interesting to note that just befor these rules went into effect that Hunts had contracted with PhiBro to buy a huge sum of silver at $35 per oz and then that after the rules were changed, Armand Hammer sold short a huge future position ( alledgedly from mines he controlled for which his partners sued him to no avail ) . No, my friend, the Hunts failed only because the had enough people hurt to force them to change the rules. This should be a lesson for us all, but unless someone tells it, no one would ever know!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:31
Puetz @ When specs get long S&P futures....>(@ When specs get long S&P futures....): - 13 ( COT ) : Here's the full story -- going back to 1983 -- when speculators get long S&P futures. 12 out of the 13 times they got long, you would have made money if you had shorted the S&P immediately. Here's the record:
. DATE ..... DOW INDST ... NEXT LOW DATE ... DOW LOW
----------------------------------------------------
12-31-83 ...... 1259 ........ 6-15-84 ........ 1087
Aug 84-Sept 85 ( this was only time they were right )
3-31-86 ...... 1822 ......... 4-4-86 ........ 1739
8-31-87 ...... 2700 ........ 12-4-87 ........ 1767
7-31-88 ...... 2129 ........ 8-19-88 ........ 2016
1-31-89 ...... 2323 ........ 2-24-89 ........ 2245
7-31-89 ...... 2635 ....... 10-13-89 ........ 2569
1-31-92 ...... 3223 ........ 10-9-92 ........ 3136
12-15-95 ...... 5177 ........ 1-12-96 ........ 5061
2-16-96 ...... 5503 ......... 3-8-96 ........ 5470
12-6-96 ...... 6382 ....... 12-16-96 ........ 6268
6-20-97 ...... 7797 ......... ?
Remember, these sell signals happened during a bull market. That's a powerful indicator to give 12 out 13 correct sell signals in a bull market.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:21
Mike Sheller and furthermore...>(and furthermore...): - Economy too good to turn down No stopping the stox stampede ( Bull market ) could last for years.
I think the wishful thinking index is in overbought territory right now. GFD, GEORGE S. COLE: Re conspiracy theories, etc, we at Kitco may be sexy, and sometimes a bit sluttish, but we are not intellectual prostitutes! Long live the internet! Long Live Kitco! Long live FREE SPEECH! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:17
Mike Sheller Pardon me boys...>(Pardon me boys...): - VIESERRE: The following was written on the back of an envelope while I waited for my wife's train: I just wanted to add that Central Banking is a construction meant to monopolize the note issue in a nation. Advantages are purported to be a single universally accepted currency with government guarantee, and the ability of a central social resource to supply same in an emergency, wherever and whenever needed. The true motive is government control of the free market by parasitical despot wanna-be's. Not to mention fleecing the citizen blind. If a uniform resource was necessary to bail out banking institutions, then the requisite amounts of gold could be transferred by note just as easily. State monopoly of note issue is an attempt by some to manage and control the lives and activities of others, while skimming off the top. This is done in the name of the common good But the question arises Why does any market need a democratically elected, or appointed, official to decide the supply and demand situation of anything? We do not elect a representative to form a committee to decide that Microsoft will rise $2 today, or that IBM will decline $4. We do that by each voting our dollars and choices in the free exchange market. Why then is such a democratic process necessary to decide how much money will enter the banking system, and at what cost? Such an assessment can not only occur automatically with a gold backed currency, but such would insure a far greater measure of monetary and financial integrity than fictional reserve banking. The very excesses and hubris of this CB construction has lead to the exaggerated boom in stocks. The collapse in prices can now only be assuaged by the CB with a huge infusion of the Hair of the Dog that will inevitably bite us.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:13
Puetz @ What's Fed Governor Meyer smoking?>(@ What's Fed Governor Meyer smoking?): - For everyones information: On May 23, 1997, Federal Reserve Board member Lawrence Meyer said the U.S. economy is too good to even worry about economic downturns. I guess the business cycle has been repealed.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:11
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley): - EBN Gold down .35 and silver down .01 .... U.S dollar weaker against the mark , franc , pound. Ted would have wanted it this way!!! Ha Ha Ha
I bet it's driving him crazy!!!! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 21:10
Puetz @ Hunt Bros. failure>(@ Hunt Bros. failure): - Savage: The biggest problem the Hunts had was they bought way too much silver with leverage. They borrowed billions of dollars to buy silver on the CBOT futures market. They took dilvery on much of it. As silver went up, mom and pop sold the silverware to dealers who melted it and delivered it to the Hunts. All of this cash silver being dumped onto the market broke the price. As silver prices fell, the Hunts got one margin call after another. As silver kept falling it finally bankrupted them.
Move ahead 17 year, rename the Hunts -- call them Boomer Mutual-Fund Buyer -- and you have the identical situation. Lots of leverage, and over-valued market. All we need now is a crash.
Indiana farmland will collapse in a stock market crash and deflation. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:54
Richard Burke @Aussie taxes>(@Aussie taxes): - When Steve ( Perth ) says Australian taxation is bad, he forgot to mention that the government takes 7% of interest earned on your bank account directly from the bank each month - presumably as advanced taxes. We hvae an Australian visitor with us this weekend. She just moved over from Canada seven months ago and is appalled at the tax system.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:47
Savage re-request>(re-request): - GEORGE S. COLE; In the event of major bear ( STOX ) ; IYO, what will happen to the price of Indiana farm land? ALSO: can anyone answer my previous question about Hunt bros. failure to capture silver mkt?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:45
D.A. no.pouring.going.on>(no.pouring.going.on): - BobM:
The money is not pouring into the stock market except to the extent that new shares are being issued, in excess of those that are being bought back. Every other transaction is simply a transfer of money from buyer to seller. There is no net change to the amount of money within the class of stock owners, simply a redistribution. This is the scary part. When stock prices are marked down rapidly, those folks that have a large portion of their savings denominated in these assets will lose a correspondingly large portion of their net worth quite quickly. This apparent loss of wealth will cause them to alter their consumption habits and may bring declining or negative economic growth.
One need only look towards Albania for an extreme example of rapid wealth redistribution, namely from the hands of most people to the pockets of the few Ponzi scheme operators. This is the risk that the FED faces. To have allowed our version of this to have carried to this level of extreme strikes me as extraordinarly irresponsible. It is state sanctioned gaming at its worst. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:44
WDL @another point of view>(@another point of view): - Interesting article in todays Boston Globe's financial page on New Era theorists' view that there's no stopping current bull market stampede. In
dissenting view, Stephen S. Roach, chief economist with Morgan Stanley, says, The policies of austerity are on the way out. He adds,
Workers hurt by foreign competition, corporate restructuring, and anti-
inflationary policies are beginning to demand higher wages and to vote in political leaders who are more sympathetic, as they did recently in France. Whatever ways workers are eventually satisfied Roach said, the solution could well sow the seeds of investor angst.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:35
Fundy Sunday>(Sunday): - Bob M Re: Mutual funds. You say that a some point everybody will have to sell. Maybe. But won't the majority slowly sell in retirement. Or even leave it to their wife in most cases and they will sell even more slowly. Just because the money seems to be flowing in in a short period of time I see no reason that it all must be sold in a short period of time. If many of the boomers think all gov programs will be broke by the time they line up at the window won't they invest for the long term Some of course will get scared and pull out when things finally correct but no one that I know thinks they will all sell out at the same time just because they have begun to invest heavily at the same time.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:10
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - I am just totally amazed at how money is pouring in to the equity markets like there is no tommorrow. When does the well go dry? At some point everyone has to sell and in order to accomplish that task, someone has to buy. Who will be left at that point? It makes me wonder if the trade deal with China has some secret provision to get the Chinese people into the market as they begin to earn their piece of the pie. It only makes sense that there must be some provision to attempt to bail this thing out. Of course the government holds the ultimate card as they have not taxed that money yet ( or at least the vast majority of it in equities ) . Maybe thats why the Fed has continued on their borrowing binge figuring that the 401K and IRAs are the collateral. It truly is incredible to look at a stock graph and see how the money is pouring in. But truly, this could last for many more years if no major wars break out.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 20:09
GVC @fidelity comparison charts>(@fidelity comparison charts): - FSAGX has consistently outperformed FDPMX as this chart shows for the last 10 years.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 19:42
GFD TWA 800 & Terrorist Blackmail>(TWA 800 & Terrorist Blackmail): - While informed circles accept that a naval missle likely brought down TWA 800, the real question is WHOSE navy did it - The US navy or a middle eastern terrorist navy:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/twaboat.htm
as part of a larger program of influence:
http://www.aci.net/kalliste/twa800.htm - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 19:32
Savage silver?>(silver?): - Guys...could anyone enlighten me about exactly what happened to derail the Hunt bros. attempt to corner the silver mkt? I've heard a couple thumbnail explanations that just don't seem to answer the questions..... I think someone recently made the assumption that it was still in the realm of possibility.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 19:31
GFD Magical Media>(Magical Media): - George S. Cole: Regarding JFK, TWA 800 and the media: when I was young and stupid I thought people who said such things were kooks or paranoid. The more I know about the world the more I realize that paranoids and conspiricy nuts don't know the half of it! What really amazes me, though is how controlled US media realy is - even compared to say the British press operating in a much more restrictive legal framework.
The following quote says it all:
There is no such thing, at this date of the world's history, in America, as an independent press. You know it and I know it. There is not one of you who dares to write your honest opinions, and if you did, you know beforehand that it would never appear in print.
I am paid weekly for keeping my honest opinion out of the paper I am connected with. Others of you are paid similar salaries for similar things, and any of you who would be so foolish as to write honest opinions would be out on the streets looking for another job. If I allowed my honest opinions to appear in one issue of my paper, before twenty-four hours my occupation would be gone.
The business of the journalists is to destroy the truth, to lie outright, to pervert, to vilify, to fawn at the feet of mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread. You know it and I know it, and what folly is this toasting an independent press?
We are the tools and vassals of rich men behind the scenes. We are the jumping jacks, they pull the strings and we dance. Our talents, our possibilities and our lives are all the property of other men.
We are intellectual prostitutes.
John Swinton
Chief of Staff, New York Times
( considered the Dean of his Profession by his peers )
When asked to give a toast at the New York Press Club in 1953
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 19:24
panda @Bears?>(@Bears?): - What's this? Bears on the Globex? Hasn't anyone told them about the Bull market yet? ( :-0
But the evening has only just begun! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 19:19
panda @>(@): - Now tell me, does anybody REALLY want to fight this thing? OK, it is going parabolic, but so what? It's a 'new era'. Just think, there's another week to go before this month is finished out. We could be up another million points or so :- ) )
Yes, this is a monthly chart of the DOW 30. If only my finances grew like this!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 19:02
EB Wondering About Gold..I mean Golf...Or Taboo>(Wondering About Gold..I mean Golf...Or Taboo): - As long as I've been associated with this group I have yet to hear anybody talk about. The Great Tortfeaser has only made a few jokes about it. Ernie Els and Jeff Maggert are on CBS playin' it. ( Ernie is on fire ) Yes, I'm talking about GOLF.
Or... is this subject TABOO.
AWAY!
EB
ps I heart Golf - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 18:11
George S. Cole TWA 800>(TWA 800): - DOCDUKE: Many books have come out over the last 30 years citing strong evidence that President Kennedy was assassinated by the mob with connivance of some elements in the CIA. Surveys have repeatedly shown that most American do not believe the official line that Kennedy was assassinated by a lone gunman. Yet this has had no impact on the financial markets.
I think the theory that the TWA flight was brought down by an errant navy missile probably is correct. Yet I doubt this will have much market impact even if widely publicized. During the 1970s an Italian airliner went down off shore and many credibly argued that it too was shot down by an errant U.S. missile. The U.S. denied it, of course, and the story died.
Of course it could be different this time. But don't count on it.
The dominant media firms are completely in bed with the Administration and the financial elite. They will do all they can to kill or appropriately spin any news story that threatens to upset the apple cart.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 17:59
panda @forgot!>(@forgot!): - The story on the Russian minister being filmed with 'naked women', he should of called Buba for advice......... :- ) )
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 17:59
EB MoreGold@Dow how far?>(MoreGold@Dow how far?): -
YES - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 17:57
panda @>(@): - MoreGold -- The vacuum cleaner known as Wall Street, can smell a Dollar bill in a person pocket half a world away.
To All -- A few news stories about this'n that, not in any particular order. France upset with Germany, the usual stuff :- ) ) EMU :- ) ) ;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/22/z0009_456.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/22/z0009_521.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/22/z0009_523.html - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 17:48
MoreGold @Dow - how far? >(@Dow - how far? ): - Panda 19:19. I admit that I have to agree with you somewhat, about stocks continuing to rally. Friends are aware that I know the markets and they keep asking what to invest in. Many are people who never touched a share in their life, and are now drawn into the market by all the hype. All I can tell them is to stay away until a major correction, but I suspect many are buying mutual funds anyway.
Im sure that this scene plays out thousands of times a day, and its this
mania that is fueling the market. Theres probably a good chance of the Dow going higher, but companies earnings are not keeping up with the market valuations that increase 20 to 100% a year - they can't.
Steve P. went through all the numbers and they speak for themselves.
As more money pours into the Stock market, the dangers increase exponetially - it will be impossible for the funds to cash out and pay
investors when mass panic hits the markets and everyone wants out
at the same time.
This is human nature, and it has repeated itself countless times. Don't believe the analysts that this time is any different. It is just taking longer,
and will be more severe.
Meanwhile, the casino is still open and taking bets..... - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 17:36
EB Gene@reality>(Gene@reality): -
YES - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 17:06
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - TO ALL
A deflationary spiral will probably end the present bull market in stocks.
Greed and Fear propel financial markets. Inordinate greed has prompted inordinate investment into companies that produce goods and services. The more money pumped into goods and services the more goods and services are produced until more goods and services are produced than the consumer is able to purchase. When too much and too many goods and services hit the market, then the producers can only lower prices to compete. There is a glut, prices come down, and corporations make less money or go bankrupt. Such has been the history of financial markets throughout recorded history.
At some point the holder of the stock becomes fearful that his stock does not have a bright future. Selling begins, the market goes down, and then a panic begins and the stock market crashes. The higher the market in terms of price earnings and other valuations, the deeper will be the crash. The higher the market the more money a corporation must make to justify its price.
The above is the most likely scenario but there are other circumstances that can bring down a highly inflated market. Now greed is rampant and fear is on the wane. One of the following can happen to cause fear to bring down the stock market. In no way am I hoping for any of the following. But human nature being what it is any of the following can occur:
1. Civil war in Mexico. The people of Mexico are treated shamefully and civil war is always a possibility. Every state in Mexico has some armed resistance.
2. An assassination of an important political figure.
3. An indictment or impeachment of the President of the United States. More and more editorials are noticing the many scandals in Washington.
4. The explosion of a terrorist atomic bomb in a major city. Many believe that such suitcase bombs have already been sold by the Russian Mafia.
5. A failure of the Cocaine crop.
6. War in the Middle East.
7. War in Korea.
8. The stock market runs on herd mentality. Who knows when the herd will turn direction for no apparent reason.
9. A simple cure for cancer. Can one imagine what this would do to hospitals and pharmaceuticals in the short run?
10. Plague either natural or planted by terrorists.
11. A cornering of the precious metals markets such has occurred with the Hunt brothers.
12. The political dissolution of a major government such as happened in the Soviet Union.
13. Some great natural catastrophe.
The point is that the herd perceives the present situation as totally safe. The world is never a safe place and if fear grips the world, the stock market will crash. When people feel fear they actively seek safety and that is when gold becomes important.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 16:31
Mike Sheller @Vieserre>(@Vieserre): - VIESERRE: Forgive the rushed reply - gotta pick up my wife @ train station ( these RE people work on Sunday, y'know ) In my ignorance I cannot speak of the labyrinthine formulas of government accounting. I suppose there are SOME mysteroies we weren't meant to fathom. Traditionally, tho, currency is theoretically a debt, or note, against a quantity of commodity metal, or specie. The confiscation of gold created a fiction which defies definition today. So I myself cannot be so sanguine about unravelling this aspect of the case, beyond a certain point. If you pardon the pun, I don't think it pays. I would like to point out that the banks derive their unlimited means of creating money due to fractional reserve banking and the largesse of the central bank. If there were no central banking system ( the true culprit ) banks would have to COMPETE with each other for the soundness of their notes. Banks which backed their notes with a commodity metal, or a specific quantity of another asset, would draw the business away from those banks who went on merilly creating paper and investing it by buying other people's stuff, or loaning it to other people to buy other other people's stuff. You know which banks would survive, and which wouldn't.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 16:26
13 cot>(cot): - I don't think this has been mentioned. Last week, 6-17-97, the S&P commercials were net short 4%. The last time they were short was 3-11-97 at 2% short. Commercials were at their longest 4-15-97 at 16% long. Only been graphing this since 1-21-97. Also, noticed a modest correlation between copper and stocks since last October? Copper slipped a little last Friday.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 16:02
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - To Steve Puetz, re your comment on short interest. Much short interest comes from big investors who have made their money on a stock and instead of selling and paying taxes they short against the box. Because they hold a short against an existing position, they may borrow 90% of the value of the long. These investors will eliminate both positions if interest rates go up considerably because they have to pay interest on the money they borrow.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:57
panda @>(@): - DocDuke -- Didn't the airline industry make a 'contribution' to the Democratic party just prior to the release of some 'guidelines' for airline safety? I believe these were related to the TWA 800 'incident'.
Let's not forget the Gore commisions airline safety report, and it's re-write just after some keys recommendations were released. The recommendations were chaff dispensors and anti-missle ( ECM ) systems for airliners that were deemed, 'high risk' flights and ECM ( electronic counter measures ) systems for ground based operations ( airports ) in certain areas. There really is nothing wrong folks, honest! :- ) ) - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:48
panda @>(@): - Tortfeasor -- So very true!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:36
Tortfeasor Random thoughts>(Random thoughts): - Investing in this gold market and this investment climate reminds me of the following story:
While crossing the US-Mexican border on his bicycle, the man was stopped
by a guard who pointed to two sacks the man had on his shoulders.
What's in the bags?
Sand, said the cyclist.
Get them off - we'll take a look, said the guard.
The Cyclist did as he was told, emptied the bags, and proving they
contained nothing but sand, reloaded the bags, put them on his
shoulders and continued across the border.
Two weeks later, the same thing happened. Again the guard demanded to
see the two bags, which again contained nothing but sand. This went on
every week for six months, until one day the cyclist with the sand
bags failed to appear. A few days later, the gaurd happened to meet the
cyclist downtown.
Say friend, you sure had us crazy, said the guard.
We knew you were smuggling something across the border. I won't say a
word - but what is it you were smuggling?
Bicycles! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:31
DocDuke one lurkers guess at the end of the bull>(one lurkers guess at the end of the bull): - Cole, et al.: The American bull will be eaten by the bear when the investors lose confidence in the market or their government. My guess is that the trigger is already in most bookstores in the U.S. ( the author claims almost all bookstores and most supermarkets ) . The book is THE DOWNING OF TWA FLIGHT 800, by James Sanders, ISBN 0-8217-5829-2, ( New York: Zebra, April 1997 ) . The author, an ex-cop turned investigative reporter and husband of a TWA flight attendant trainer, makes a compelling case that TWA 800 was shot down by a U.S. Navy missile, and that Clinton orchestrated the coverup, beginning less than eight hours after the crash. There is a good chance that the revelations around this massive coverup will shake the confidence of Americans, and the foundation of their government. My prediction is that the coverage of this book in the reluctant media will be a leading indicator for the crash of the market and the explosion of gold prices.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:21
Jack It's the ?>(It's the ?): -
Mike Sheller: Your ( 09:46 ) was an excellent piece of
work, but its still the credit moguls who profit at the
expense of goverments ( people of the specific countries
being damned ) . There used to be usery laws. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 15:05
George S. Cole selling climax>(selling climax): - Panda: Agree that a selling climax in the PM stocks probably has begun. These usually last just a few days. I concur with APH that a big reversal is coming quite soon ( probably next week ) from levels not far below where we stand now.
Many have speculated about the precise manner in which the current bull market will end. I had originally thought that a sharp fall in the dollar/yen would end the bull by pushing bond prices down sharply. Well the dollar/yen has plunged, but bond prices have gone up, not down, taking stocks with them.
My suspicion now is that the bull will end for no apparent reason. Just the smart money concluding that prices aren't going up much more and then starting to bail out. The bad news will come out AFTER the market has declined steeply. Also think that when the bull ends for REAL, gold prices will be moving up, not down.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 14:43
Vieserre Money, Inflation and the FED>(Money, Inflation and the FED): - MIKE SHELLER: Thanks for responding. I am pleased you post as I always find your comments of interest, and I particularly appreciate your courteous presentations. I am not trained in economics, nor have I had an interest in it until recently. This is bad and good, the bad is my ignorance, the good is I do not have preconceived ideas based on outdated professorial views.
Having said this, and trying to keep the issues as sharp as possible owing to the constraints of this mode of communication. If the dollar is an irredeemable currency based on a promise to pay , which is a contradiction in terms, than any currency issued must be debt and accounted as such on the governmental ledger. And must be accounted for in total govenmental debt. The first question I have, is this so. And if not why not.
I also wish to address the expansion of money supply, whether it causes inflation and some common apparent misconceptions. First with regard to inflation, I have always assumed because of it being the common view that an increase in money supply leads to inflation, brought about by our fractional reserve money base. I recall reading almost daily accounts how the FED was watching money growth to set economic policty. And growth in M2 was attributed to daily stock market action and the like. But this is now given little weight. The modern view apparently is that although inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, it is price rises that cause an increase in the supply of money, not the other way around. The current belief is that M2 doesn't cause inflation - and it doesn't drive GDP growth, and in any event there is little the FED can do about it as explained below. And this is attributed to why Alan and other economists apparently pay little heed to it.
Also, contrary to common dicta, I read the FED is not proactive but reactive in increasing money supply. That is, the Fed expands the money supply by reacting to the increased need for debt. If prices and wages are rising, then businesses will need to borrow that much more more in order to meet their obligations. The Fed accommodates this need by facilitating the creation of more money.
Moreover, ignoring for this discussion the effect of discount and funds rates, the FED has substantial imitations. It can only do it by the use of buying or selling treasury securities. But banks on the other hand have an unlimited means of creating money with their ability to expand money merely based on a deposit of an IOU. So even if M2 did affect inflation, there is little the FED can do about it, except make the cost of borrowing more difficult. In addition, the FED's Treasury Security portfolio represents a very small portion of the amount outstanding. Thus I wonder how much the FED can really do to control inflation. And how much undeserved blame they get by some for expansion of money supply.
As to the other points raised in your posts, I appreciate your enlightenment. Your admirable humanity is apparent by your continual references to social injustices in your posts. And, although present economics certainly contributes to it, it seems to me more of a consequence than the cause.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 14:05
APH .................>(.................): - Savage - The crossing of the Gann lines at 325 6/98 represent the point when time and price come into perfect harmony. A financial crash in itself wouldn't change anything, a monthly close above 400 reguardless of the event would.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 13:55
Benjamin Disraeli @earlier posts>(@earlier posts): - A conservative government is an organized hypocrisy.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 13:41
Savage ...>(...): - APH: I assume that in the event of a financial crash your 6/98 @ 325 would be subject to revision ( perhaps radical revision ) , yes?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 13:31
APH .........................>(.........................): - Mike Sheller - My longer term projections are very close to yours. A rally in the bullion should reach 355-360 on the low end and 390-395 on the high end. This rally would fail and prices will trade back to 325 by June/July 1998. 325/6-98 is the place where the 1x1 gann lines cross based on the 1976 lows. This area if achieved would launch a new bull leg up.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 13:17
Savage ......>(......): - EB-DUDE: thanks for the reply ( info ) STEVE PERTH: well said; it's 11:49 APH: I totally agree. GEORGE S COLE: in the event of major bear ( stox ) ; what will happen to the price of Indiana farm land?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 13:04
Mike Sheller Technicals on the head of a pin>(Technicals on the head of a pin): - APH: You technical view echoes mine, tho mine is astrologically derived. Sparing everyone the bizarre details, suffice it to say my indicators are suggesting a rally into midsummer/early fall, and a further decline by winter to similar lows currently being experienced. At around 330ish, gold is at the major long term support line connecting the '85 and '92 lows. IF stox were JUST now taking off, and gold broke below that support, I would have to be fearful of a major decline in gold prices. But when I see gold at what must hold as absolute rock bottom support, while stox go into a vertical spike, I have to conclude it's time to buy some bullion. Last chance to load up at similar favorable prices will be in winter '97. Then, the shares can be bought with abandon, and longterm futures as well. The interim rally is getting a bit late ( as though I'm right and the market is not ) so it might possibly be a sharp one, and unduly excite gold bulls.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 12:53
Mike Sheller splitting hares >(splitting hares ): - VIESERRE: If you would be so kind as to permit my interjection, there is, I suppose, a distinction between printing money by governments and giving the freshly created funds to specific institutions, corporations, or individuals, and expanding the monetary base. But it is barely a technical one.. Out and out printing of money has generally been more traditional in times of emergency such as wars and financial panics. Sometimes these injections are considered loans, and the public is led to believe they will be repaid. Sometimes this is done along with the retailing of bonds to the public, and the issuance of institutional size quantities of government debt.
The expansion of the monetary base as a goal in itself is usually, to my understanding, undertaken to affect the economy in general - invariably to expand its activities and thus provide a larger and healthier base to plunder for special interests and programs in current political favor. This is usually done in a more legitimate fashion than simply printing gobs of cash or filling up coffers with funds. Debt financing is one paper method, but given a total debt free equilibrium in government expenditures and government revenues, expansion of the monetary base can be effected by making more, or cheaper credit available to banks in the central banking system. This money gets retailed as loans, etc, and because it is plentiful, and thus inexpensive, it encourages more activity than would have been the case. Usually, this activity proves to be wasteful and frivolous, and stupid. If this process goes on long enough, you get a society that worships Madonna, Michael Jackson, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, while their kids grow up without a culture. But at least they carry beepers, and can get to the mall through any kind of suburban weather in their 4x4's, the price of which could buy a little house for a small family in many parts of the USA, or the world for that matter. I know I haven't told you anything new, but it seems the distinction is very fine here, and the end result equally unfortunate. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 12:37
APH XAU, ABX, Gold>(XAU, ABX, Gold): - This past week the XAU has finally traded down to the gap area at 97. To ignore or dismiss a weekly gap that is opposite to the major trend of a market when trying to forcast future price movement can do serious damage to your financial health. This gap is proving itself as a natural place for the market to find support on this corrective pullback. To fill the gap entirely the xau needs to go to 96.65. The 50 week bollinger band is at 94 and should be the low end. That's the good news. The bad news is this correction may have been a B wave with a sharp C wave up to follow, after which a move to new lows later this year or next. I plan on buying xau calls somewhere between 97-94. ABX is back down to its long term trend line where I bought earlier this year at 22 sold at 26. Buy at 22-1/4 sell close only stop at 21. GCQ7 - I recieved a few e-mails from people stating I had lost my marbles buying at 340. I may lose a few of my marbles in this trade but I see it as a low risk trade with a great risk reward ratio 10:1. The lower trend line fri was at 339.5 ( fri low ) five waves or an abcde wedge is complete and the bears are all over the place and I think the xau is ready to turn and lead the metals up. We will see.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 12:20
Vieserre home>(home): - NEW GOLDBUG, STEVE PUETZ: Monetization of Debt, as the term is freely used, is not entirely clear to me. At one time governments used to print money directly for governmental growth. Now some economists quip they print bonds and then print money. As the FED issues new money based on such a governmental guarantee, it would seem the guarantee should be a debt or liability on the governmental balance sheet, which should be accounted for like any other governmental debt. Therefore, do you know whether the government must issue bonds to print this money? And if not why not? It also seems to me that a clear distinct should be made between printing money and monetary expansion by the FED in the purchase of Treasury Securities.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:27
panda @>(@): - Puetz -- So, there are not many buyers of last resort left. Hmmm, reminds me of Wiley Coyote chasing after the Road Runner, right off the cliff. Suddenly, Wiley realizes.... There's no ground beneath him... ( :-0
Steve, care to bet on the Long bond chart? Does the triangle hold or not? ;- )
If it bounces up from here, the target appears to be 7.2% by October. The markets would love that. :- ) )
Short sellers tend to 'cushion' falls because they 'cover' their positions at lower prices, thus slowing the fall ( just for those who don't understand this mechanism. )
Really gone now, Be Back Later..... - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:24
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - PANDA: In Australia, they tax us stupid...so much so that they are having to start looking at implementing a Goods & Services Tax, like in the US & UK. Our 401k plans are taxed now. No serious tax relief for savers.
One of the reasons I am not so concerned about retirement is that apart from Ill Health, I do not believe that you do actually retire. You just slow down, more & more. But the reality is, if you do NOT spend your summer holidays in France, you don't really need much to exist on during retirement. Get 1 to 5 acres of land, with water to grow fruit & veges on, & you are half way there. You can't eat paper or gold. You must eat food & drink water. Basic stuff I know, but in our manic push towards high technology, we are forgetting the foundations of life, both spiritually & physically. Remember this: The LOVE of money is the root of ALL evil, & that Jesus said The poor you will have with you ALWAYS. If you are poor, the secret is working out HOW to live. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:22
Cmax Puetz: inflation and deflation >(Puetz: inflation and deflation ): - Mr. Puetz, Re: your June 21 10:53
Very good question you proposed, as to what is inflation or deflation.
Having been thru Argentina in 10% per day inflation, and presently living in another country with 100% ( and incredibly, with a fixed exchange rate! ) , I have seen the color of this beast. Inlation and deflation are the same, they have they same stripes. It is not the actual “numeral” that is important....that is just a matter of semantics. Whether your
$300,000 increased in “value” to $500,000 in fifteen years would appear to be inflationary to most, but if the real inflation rate was 9% per year, I would consider your now $500,000 house to be selling in a deflationary mode. The ONLY way to really define inflation or deflation, is to define a certain basket of staples ( stuff ) , from various
countries, and average them out. Then see how much of this “basket” could purchase in relation to your $500,000. Then, compare the “then” price of these same staples, and compare that to your $300,000 house when you bought it. This is the only true way to define inflation or deflation.
As a corrollary, most people would consider “deflationary” if the market crashed and brought your $300,000 house to $150,000 in value. But these same people fail to see that if all other goods also fell by 50%, this is NOT really deflation. The supposed deflation is felt by the person hold the morgage, who would probably get stuck with the house. But with further examination, you will note that the amount of moragage will
also buy twice as much stuff as before, and thus is not necessarily damaged by discounting their morgage 50%, even though they would be howling with derision.
Look at Brazil, every few years they just simply added another ZERO to their currency, and wallah! Is this inflationary? Not really. Stuff went up just the same.
The question of inflation or deflation is really a question of how persons who have large outstanding loans will handle the “absolute numerals”; if they are to be to their short term
advantage or disadvantage. Take the following exaple: I puchased a vacation house in Florida a couple of weeks ago for $300,000. This house came on the market at $480,000 a year ago, which is in line with comparable houses. After a year on the market, the owner decided that it was in her interest to sell in for $300,000, even though she paid
$285,000 for it 14 years ago. I would not call this $15,000 difference inflationary, but would consider it extremely deflationary as 14 years ago $285,000 would have purchased $600,000 worth of stuff at today’s value. Deflation, disguised as inflation, is here now. As my concern is further deflation, and it’s effect on the future value of this house, like any true gold bug, I financed it to keep the cash in gold, to offset any effects of deflation.
Interestingly, our gold, one of the most real “STUFFS” that exist, has been artificially pushed down in value as compared to our “basket”. We are living in very interesting times....I don’t believe that we will see this again ever in our lifetimes. Ihave'nt posted the last few months, present gold price is just against every grain of logic, as is the DOW, and I cannot deal with the irrationality...too confusing. ( Or my premises have been wrong )
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:22
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Bill Buckler ( Jun 20 - 17:58 ) Re: Gold Breaks out in $A.
Looking at the chart Bill provided us with looks very interesting and Could be the first signs of life in the Gold market. But I read something this weekend that seems to be worth adding here. According to CRU Precious Metals Monitor June97 issue Pg. 3 Paragraph titled Producers Look to Sell Forward ... In Australia there is a growing concern about margins and producers want to put more hedges in place. A number are looking to sell forward in the A$450 - A$475/oz range. After looking at Bill's Point & Figure chart one will see that Gold hit A$460 and then turned south, so it does seem that producers are infact selling in this range. I would think that a weekly close ABOVE A$475 will be a significant event and Could be a more telling sign that gold has infact bottomed ( At least temporarily ) .
I would like to thank Bill Buckler from the Privateer for his analysis and I truely enjoy his work. It is also evident that he has but alot of effort into it. I am not tring to put his work down, rather I am just adding to it.
ENJOY!! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:19
Mike Sheller playing among the stars>(playing among the stars): - QUANTUM MECHANIC: So you need to be a Rocket Scientist after all! At least it's not brain surgery. The predictions from the lab are as sound as any. I am still watching the 30 Year Bond. It's current mini-rally has been carrying this stox advance. Sort of the tail wagging the dog, or Mercury eclipsing Jupiter, if you will. The leverage this small move in bonds has had on the stock market is magnified by investor end-stage frenzy and the high numbers of the Dow ( a sense of proportionality is needed here ) . Nevertheless, we are in vertical liftoff at this stage, and not many price charts have survived such G's for long. If the September Bond cannot convincingly knife thru 113.50 at this point, we may have hit exhaustion in the bond market, and stox will not be TOO far behind. Could carry a while tho, that's for sure. If the Bond leaps past 113, then the stock market may surprise us all. With gold looking like it wants to spike down Monday ( and hopefully reverse and close at or above 337 ) I might guess that bonds are about to go soft and gold is in the process of an intermediate bottom.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:18
Puetz @ Steve Perth>(@ Steve Perth): - Steve: I'm in the process of doing as you suggested. Will put the 20 points in the gold-eage digest.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:16
panda @>(@): - ssssssssssss ( ddddddddddddddd ) -- I think this happened to me last Friday.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:14
Puetz @ short-interest>(@ short-interest): - Panda: The record short-interest on the NYSE is somewhat misleading these days. There are stocks included in these totals which really aren't short-sales in the traditional sense. It's better to look at short sales as hedged and un-hedged. Most NYSE short-sales these days a hedged short-sales.
Examples of hedged short-sales: An index arbitrage firm is long S&P futures and short the 500 S&P stocks on the NYSE. 2 companies about to merge via either a cash settlement or a stock swap at fixed ratios are grave for arbitrage firms the buy the cheap company and sell-short the high-priced company. Also, some hedge funds have 1/2 of the portfolio long stocks, the other 1/2 short stocks.
In all of these strategies, the arbitrager is only trying to make a meager profit -- sometimes as small as 1/2 of 1%. But there is usually very little risk in some of these strategies.
Most of these things weren't done 30 years ago. That's why short-interest totals look so high today. The unhedged short-position on the NYSE is rather small. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:11
Steve (Perth-Western Australia) Steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(Steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - An interesting Chart on The Privateer Web Pages
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
Been away for the past two days at the farm. Something is brewing, even
things appear quiet. Out there in Main Street however, people are not picking up the news feeds re: CB's & Gold revaluations etc. The general media have NOT been reporting these VERY important developments. So the public remains very ignorant, apart from becoming aware that the stock market is quite high. Keep up the great work mates!!!! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:09
panda @>(@): - Steve ( Perth - Western Australia ) -- All these numbers confuse me! Is 200,000 bigger than a bazillion? LOL :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )
You are right on about the 'fear' factor seeming to be the driving force behind this bull market in equities. Most of the late twenty to forty somethings that I talk to ( I'm one of them ) , don't believe in Social Security 'supporting' them. I do not wish to delve in to that morass again! The crux of the matter is this, because of the FEAR of abject poverty in retirement, investing in stocks is perceived as the solution. Thus the mania is born of an irrational fear.
I always ask one question of these 'investors', IF you make your 1, 2, 5 million or more Dollars, at what rate do you think that money will be taxed at when you withdraw it? Not a one has thought this far ahead! All they know, is that they are not paying taxes on their gains NOW. They claim to be, LONG term investors. But are they? Do they even know themselves? This is a bad mix for investing. I've always lost when investing on an emotional basis. That is what separates good traders from the bad.
Be Back Later.... - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:03
Puetz @ definitions>(@ definitions): - Reify: Here are the classical definitions:
MONEY -- A store-of-value, a measure-of-value, and a medium-of-exchange. Nothing perfectly fits these characteristics. However, gold and silver have closest to meeting these monetary criteria. Besides the precious metals, no other commodities or things have come close to meeting these criteria -- especially the store-of-value characteristic of money. By definition, a massive monetary expansion is impossible. It is a contradiction of terms. If it can be expanded rapidly, then it's not money.
CREDIT -- is the giving of a loan by a lender, and the receiving of a loan by a borrower. Giving credit is expansionary. Paying off a loan is deflationary. All loans must eventually be repaid. When they are, deflation takes over. In the US, we are operating on a credit-based pseudo-monetary system.
CURRENCY -- In the old days, currency was a receipt for gold. It had the same inflationary and deflationay effects as credit. When currency was issued, the economy inflated. When the currency receipts were turned in for gold, the economy deflated.
FIAT CURRENCY -- In modern times, currency is no receipt at all. It's an IOU nothing. It's used as a medium-of-exchange, but it's not a store-of-value, and sometimes it's not a good measure-of-value. A fiat currency can inflate indefinitely -- there is nothing to constrain it. Individuals may refuse to accept a fiat currency, but it keeps inflating all the time it is used. It never deflates. People just stop accepting the fiat currency. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:02
ssssssssssss ddddddddddddddd>(ddddddddddddddd): - Panda Your Sat 2235 post about typo's HAS happened. During the 1980's
a key punch operator at one of the big NY banks or investment banking firm made a data entry error in her firms closing cash balances. The error needlessly required the frim to borrow several billion dollars from the FED. This unexpected surge in borrowing ( the overnite fed funds mrkt )
caused interest rates to jump 1/2 % overnight!! The error was corrected the next day. Later, Greenspan while testifing before congress, said that his one worry was the problems that could arise from false computer data. All dirivitives values are calculated and kept by computers so a problem there could be big touble ( BT ) . - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 11:01
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Hi BOB M! Good to see you on the Kitco again. We need someone to
keep George S. Cole on his toes. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:57
Mike Sheller as in hot tuna meltup?>(as in hot tuna meltup?): - STEVE PUETZ: By the way - a tip of the astrological turban to you on your expression meltup describing the recent stox rally. I find the entire Kitco experience becoming increasingly poetic. SMALL TRADER: Start making the switch NOW. Take profits in the stox you have been blessed to hold and appreciate for you, and start repatriating them into real money - gold bullion coins. Some gold stock shares wouldn't hurt either. It is imperative that you take advantage of these soft gold prices by buying physical gold. Maple Leafs make it simple and a no-brainer. If you institute a program of dollar cost averaging bullion now, over the next 8 months you will have a nice position at very nice prices. If you are a long-term investor, learn when to sell something that has had a spectacular rise, and buy something valuable that is temporarily in the gutter. Here's your moment to BEGIN that transition. DO NOT WAIT.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:55
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - PANDA gets my vote this week. Great charts & to the point.
STEVE PUETZ - why don't you put your Red Alert Points on Gold Eagle as one article. Your May Newsletter needs updating.
BEYOND 2000: I had a fascinating conversation today with the head of Western Australia's Rural Industry Body about colleagues his age ( 50's + ) not really looking forward to the decade/s post year 2000. There is nothing much to look forward to, except a lot of problems to handle when these baby boomers turn 65+. Being in my 30's, I hadn't picked up this trend feeling. However, mulling it over, I think he might be right. Which makes me wonder what is driving the Dow currently? FEAR of financial poverty if they don't get in? The lack of confidence is of great concern.
The feed on the M2 money supply was spot on. Up & up. However it is not taking away the growing fear. My finance broker colleague has also noted that people are becoming much more short tempered, and less loyal in their business dealings lately. Some are becoming downright terrible.
DOW PREDICTION: Will definitely be 200,000 DJIND in the year 3000!!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:49
panda @some.thoughts.but.I'm.not.BT>(@some.thoughts.but.I'm.not.BT): - George S. Cole -- I think the conditions for a 'selling climax' in the PM ( precious metals ) stock group is here, now. We have been in an eighteen month +/- bear market, and gold has broken support at the $340 level. The decline of the PM stocks has been too orderly, we need a 'throwing in of the towel' event. I think we need to test the 1993 lows. The, Stox market, is the place to be! Or so it seems. We have wild predictions of Dow 10,000 to 60,000 in the next year to twenty years out! There is no bad news for stocks anymore! Gold is viewed as a pathetic relic of the past, and this view is being reinforced by the media, financial community, and governments.
A logical conclusion to all of this is a downdraft in gold 'prices'. The fierce selling of PM stocks because, Gold is dead. Things to come. A further rise in stox. Then some some problems with PM mines closing, further hurting the gold mining group. Rising bullion prices due to acute shortages of this stuff that nobody wants ( just like palladium/platinum :- ) ) . Finally, an accident of some sort in the financial markets. This could be a fraud of some type, such as a swindle in a large brokerage firm or a fraudulent technology company stock blowing up in everybodies face, just like Bre-X.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the weekly bond chart in the next two to four weeks! Does the rally in bonds continue? Or, do we do an about face in the next few weeks? Will the triangle hold? Stay tuned for the next episode of, As the worm turns. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:48
Mike Sheller @thequandary>(@thequandary): - WW: Re: your question ( which I interpreted to be not so rhetorical ) as to whether the authorities have the power to reverse the decline ( in a financial catastrophe ) . I would volunteer that the authorities only have the power to create the problems that lead to catastrophe and decline. The markets, being markets, will have to be left to their own devices to sort themselves out. Otherwise would be to sow the seeds of an ongoing or repeat crisis. As for the subject of deteriorating job relevance in today's society, this is certainly a problem related directly to the technology and demands of the citizen/consumer. I need not elucidate the innovations that have made most middle mangers obsolete, and the world-wide labor pool that has had its partitions removed by man's ability to move and communicate more freely than ever before. These are not things that are proper or wise to interfere with if one believes in the innate human rights of every individual, in every corner of the Earth. So there is not much that can be done in the face of these changes in a regulatory sense, that makes sense at all. We are in uncharted ground as far as this civilization is concerned, and while I agree that this turn of events is intensely problematic for many citizens, it is of the utmost importance that we assess our own life priorities before we lash out against others for redress of this greivous development. Western consumers may wish to take stock of the untold billions, nay trillions, they waste on frivolity, empty and violent entertainments, and garbage being passed off as food. This while their children go uneducated, their health deteriorates, and their financial futures stand at the brink of evaporation. Perhaps a renaissance in cultural values and the basics of civilized and progressive living may be necessary before responsible and responsive citizens can reconstruct their institutions for better human service. This would perforce have to be a private effort for suitable radical and effective vision and standards to be effective.There is certainly no leadership in this direction forthcoming from any of the authorities. Hope they have a can of humongous band-aids.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:48
Vieserre home>(home): - Steve Peutz: Regarding your 23:50, I may have mispelled your name, for which I apologize, but I have not been any lurker using it.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:38
gaget widget.Gaget@industrialenterprise.com>(widget.Gaget@industrialenterprise.com): - The gov't issues currency and bonds for the same reason a bottle manufacturer sells bottles; and the effect is the same... lower prices for both things.
However, there is a difference, one trades values the other threats of force.
The word counterfiter applies to the gov't. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:36
George s. Cole bubbles>(bubbles): - Before this massive bubble developed, many of us wondered how investors could have so stupid and greeedy in 1929. Now we know. A relentlessly rising market sucks in money like a vacuum cleaner. And as the market continues to surge, new era theories sprout like weeds to rationalize absurd price levels. It happened in 1929. It is happening today. And it probably will happen again 20-30 years fron now to yet another generation of investors.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:30
Quantum Mechanic @ hi Mike>(@ hi Mike): - Mike Sheller, repeal might be a bit strong a word for it. But I will
certainly be having a word to my colleagues at NASA. Maybe they can
power their next mission on the juice or is that BS that has powered
the DOW rocket to these heights.
We are looking for a 6600 DOW by November which would give it room to
hit 8000 by December 98. But if the O-rings dont fail it looks like
10000 late next year.
With all due respect, Frustrated Rocket Scientist. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:29
WW @New England>(@New England): - I am heavily invested in the gold sector which has been unlucky for any gold fans. However, luck may be changing, this morning I awoke and just checked the newspaper and I hit 5 out of 6 nos., in the state lottery for over 1k. The odds of this are 1/30000+. Can gold be much further behind as good and bad luck seem to run in streaks.
Noticed last week that gold and silver rose on higher volume and rising open interest on Thursday. I havent seen that in a long time.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:29
George s. Cole Rate Hikes?>(Rate Hikes?): - Super-bull Ralph Accompura on CNBC some days ago called for Greenspan to hike rates as soon as possible to get the bad news out of the way. He had not the slightest doubt the market would continue to shrug off Fed rate hikes. Talk about new era psychology!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 10:15
George s. Cole gold bull?>(gold bull?): - Ben Wanghneer: You're right; calling a bottom in a major bear market or a top in a huge bull market is very difficult. As Panda points out, bottom fishing is dangerous. I do expect a new gold bull to begin this summer, but could be wrong.
I have just a small position in gold mutuals now and will not buy more until there is solid technical evidence of a change in trend. In order to be pretty sure that things have finally turned, I am waiting for bullion and the gold stock indexes to penetrate key resistance levels on heavy volume and KEEP MOST OF THESE GAINS. That will indicate serious investor demand, not just another brief short-covering rally. I also want to see gold consistently ignore bad news and respond to good news. Until these things happen, the trend will remain bearish. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 09:52
bw Keep it going?>(Keep it going?): - We watch the dow soar ever higher and gold pushed ever lower. The imputed value of worthless paper seems to grow daily. The economy appears to grow without an end in sight. However it appears to me that all the requisite fundamental preconditions of an economic depression seem to be currently present.
o Record debt at all levels of society
o Financial mania ( far exceeding that of 1929 )
o New era sentiment rife
o Manufacturing plants rapidly moving to foreign land.
o Millions of workers becoming unemployable in this country
o Distribution of wealth reaching extremes
o Pervasive political corruption, dishonesty and deception
o Gross overconsumption of goods and services - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 09:46
Lurker @>(@): -
Is it just me, or does anyone else get the feeling
something big is about to happen? - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 09:46
Mike Sheller Inflating for the day>(Inflating for the day): - STEVE PUETZ, ALL: The proper definition of INFLATION is the issuance of currency with no corresponding increase in specie ( gold, silver, etc ) behind the notes. Any note issued without a commodity metal backing ( specie ) is fraudulent, and is, by definition, a component of an inflation. This is, essentially, monetary fraud. A paper note was only, and is only, a receipt for gold on deposit in a bank or similar private repository. That gold was confiscated by government. Government now issues paper notes against its own debt. I have been advised that this is constitutionally illegal ( so what else is new? ) . Every new note issued, and every government bond created and predicated upon the surrender of a particular sum of currency in the future, is a component of inflation. There is at present, in every monetary, currency, and credit system of the world, ONLY inflation. Rising prices, in and of themselves, are not inflation. Rising prices may be due to normal or abnormal supply and demand market factors. However, all things being equal, inflation invariably leads to rising prices eventually, and chronically.
Sweeping technological changes and homogenization of world labor markets have been masking the EFFECTS of the ongoing, and massive inflation. As these factors reach equilibrium, prices will begin to rise. Labor seeking higher wages is NOT inflation or inflationary. It is merely a normal market phenomenon that may or may not be successful, and may or may not lead to higher production costs, demand wages, and rising prices. But it is NOT inflation. The press, and the financial community has swallowed government's line about inflation being caused by greedy producers and pushy labor unions. These are lies. There is only one source of inflation. It is government itself. It is a crime, like any other form of fraud and theft, and for that reason alone it must be ended, and civilization returned to a specie standard. This will happen eventually. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 09:40
Reify @replying>(@replying): - PANDA- actually you're not far off the mark, no pun intended.
Once there's a collapse in the monetary system, the government has
to find a solution, this is where a gold related, backed, currency
will then be created, otherwise, bartering will be needed.
If you've ever lived through a period, like hyperinflation, and
not many have, you would understand the masses eventually lose
faith in money.
In the present situation, I lean more towards the George S. Cole's
theory, that we're headed for a major bear, and it'll last some
years. If a crash period will come, it'll probably be at the beginning
or the end of the down move.
Progressive administrations, both democrats and republicans, not to mention many other nations, have spent our future generation's wealth.
As the oracle article,on the gold eagle site, states, we are behaving as
though our natural capital resources and enviroment, is infinite, it
is clearly not, and we aren't replacing, nor rationing what we use,
again,we're stealing from our offspring. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 09:29
Mike Sheller Morning All>(Morning All): - QUANTUM MECHANIC: May I thus infer from your experiment that not only has the business cycle been repealed, but the DOW is about to be as well? By the way, I have a lot to say about the nature of nothingness.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 09:02
WW @New England>(@New England): - BERNIE: The hype about California is to keep CONFIDENCE UBER ALLES. Clearly leaders at the G-7 summit were miffed by Clinton's chest thumping. I love what Chirac said We French should import the optimism of your media ( he knows this economy is a low wage and benefit Hamburger flipper service economy ) . Beautiful, as I posted yesterday I know from many sources that the job mkt is abysmal. The reason for the Cal. propaganda on CNBC is also to keep a consistency with the rising stk mkt. This is in the interest of CNBC WAll St sponsors thus you have propaganda with almost old Soviet flair in its polyannish patent absurdity to anyone familiar with the situations.
AS I have heard said THE JOB MKT IS BOOMING ON ALL FRONT PAGES!!
US NOW 13th in std of living down from 1st twenty years ago. Below France Germany and Japan as well the other non-competitive countries. If the propaganda wasnt serious it would be down right funny.
I think Chirac finds it properly funny.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 08:28
Quantum Mechanic @CERN>(@CERN): - Here is the bad news guys. Unfortunatly in early 1995 we were conducting an experiment which was to lead to a greater understanding of the true nature of nothingness. We wound up our particle accelerator to 2000 GeV
which then produced a collision between a proton and an antiproton. This
is where it gets interesting. Instead of producing quarks and strings of
gluons we produced a piece of antimatter which we now call a DJ track.
This has been named so because of the way it mimicks the angle of diffraction since Jan 95 of the DJIA. Bad news guys is the track stops
dead and does not reappear. Hope us messing around with the Grand
Unification Theory hasnt produced a monster on your side of the world.
Cheers. One elated scientist. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 07:55
panda @>(@): - Reify -- How about inflationary collapse? A situation where a business can't tell if it's making or losing money, because the purchasing power of the money changes on a moment to moment basis. The question for the business is, What is my cost and what will the market bear for price? When you cannot determine your cost, the price issue becomes moot, because of the other question which cannot be answered, What is my profit?
Be Back Later.......... - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 07:47
Reify @to continue>(@to continue): - CURRENCY-BASED monetary systems do end with hyper-inflation. But, CREDIT-BASED systems
eventually collapse with deflation of the credit. In other words, the credit becomes worthless.
Mr. Puetz, this was picked from your reply to Mr. Owen. Can you tell me the difference? When credit becomes worthless, or fiat becomes worthless,
where's the difference? This has been the reason why I have stated on a number of occasions, that what I believe we're in for, is an inflationary depression, as contradictory as that may sound. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 07:47
panda @>(@): - Puetz -- My reference to the 'short interest business', relates to the record short interest levels on all stock exchanges. I cannot believe that these are all 'bear' positions'! If they are, then the bears have a lot more money than the Bulls! Think of it, the short interest levels are rising with the market. The higher the market goes, the deeper under water the short position goes. If these positions are 'covered', they result in market rallies, hence, sucking more money from the sidelines. When the last bear has been killed, watch out!
I tend to think that some of those short positions are hedges put in place by those who fear a market decline. The positions may or may not be taken off periodically, hence, the rallies? There is no question that the bears have been trying! Many bears are badly wounded. I've been a little luckier than some, but I did get stupid on one position. Oh well, you can't bat a thousand, but you can try. As for a fall in the markets? No predictions, but when it comes, it'll be a fast sharp drop. How much, say you? I haven't got a clue. This is one powerful Bull, for whatever reason! Get in front of it at the peril of your finances! As long as the 'dippies' keep on buying.....
The real question is this, when will the under $50K/year income group collapse? Or, when will the over $50K/year income group be 'blown out' in the stock market? One group, basically spends everything that they earn ( no savings ) and the other dumps a good chunk of their 'spare' cash in to the stock market and using their credit card to finance everyday life. Here's a question for you, ask people from either group if they have more than fifty Dollars cash in their wallet or purse. I'll bet you the answer is no, but they will have plenty of credit/debit cards! Hell, look at gas stations. More and more people are putting their cards in to the pump or waving some damn thing-a-ma-bob at the pump in leiu of cash payment. More credit expansion! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 07:45
Reify @to continue>(@to continue): - CURRENCY-BASED monetary systems do end with hyper-inflation. But, CREDIT-BASED systems
eventually collapse with deflation of the credit. In other words, the credit becomes worthless.
Mr. Puetz, this was picked from your reply to Mr. Owen. Can you tell me the difference? When credit becomes worthless, or fiat becomes worthless,
where's the difference? - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 06:01
Reify @Dilemma>(@Dilemma): - HYPER INFLATION, & Mr. Puetz's question do we understand the difference between monetary expansion and credit expansion.
It's always a little annoying to me when I speak to a non-entity, like HYPER INFLATION. Where sir, or madam, did you get your facts about the german hyperinflation of the early twenties and their causes?
Mr. Puetz why don't you be kind enough and tell us what is, in your opinion the difference between monetary and credit inflation, or expansion?
Now I feel better. Have a good one y'all.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 05:12
The Dollar is better than Gold Good Deal>(Good Deal): -
First they push up the dolars value so that they may send
us their Lexus', their Mercedes,, their Toyota,s the
Bema's and Volvo's, not to mention about five other
brands that sell in greater numbers.
This proves that he dollar is better than gold.
Then they cash in those dollar, which are relatively
higher than their own currencies. So they get more of
their own currency. As a result we get our dollars which
are worth less and which are used to respike the economy,
that suffered when we imported all that stuff. Then we
start the circle, all over again. NO QUESTION ABOUT IT,
THE DOLLAR IS BETTER THAN GOLD. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 04:59
Blutarsky @Delta House>(@Delta House): -
TED---Have a good road trip!---Bluto - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 04:45
Jack Interest (correction)>(Interest (correction)): -
When a government pays interest to borrow its own
currency and taxes its own citizens to pay the interest
it is doomed to failure.
Think of the prosperity it would create for its people,
if this money were used to create businesses or used in
proper investments. ( Not today's DOW )
WW, think of all the people-users, the userer's, that you
could place behind bars, while the present types of
crimes will be a thing of the past. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 04:36
Jack Interest>(Interest): -
When a government pays interest to borrow its own
currency and taxes its own citizens to pay the interest
it is doomed to failure.
Think of the prosperity it would create for its people.
WW, think of all the people-users that you could place
behind bars, while the present types of crimes will be a
thing of the past. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 04:32
TED @GOODBY>(@GOODBY): - Good-by all KITCOITES!....Time for a ROAD TRIP!....Tarnished: Call me Bubba behind me back...will ya!...I won't forget that....BYE!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 04:26
Big Watcher @T Minus 5 Days And Counting>(@T Minus 5 Days And Counting): -
In 5 days, we will know if BT is real or not. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 04:16
Jack Getting it back>(Getting it back): -
Reb: They ( the CB's ) will try to get their loaned-out
gold pronto; regardless of the rules of the game. Once
this intention becomes known; the lid on the gold price
will crumble. Those who initially sold the borrowed gold
will pay heavily. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 03:12
Bernie Ca. Boom>(Ca. Boom): - Something has been bothering me about last weeks CNBC's all
week special about California's Quiet Boom.....If anyone else on
Kitco thought it strange I would like to hear your comments. From
my point of view ( and those at my local watering hole ) it was pure
propaganda. Why? Who is gaining from such a charade? It
bothers me a great deal that a national network is trying to
brainwash, why?
WW...Enjoyed your posts Sat.-Sun., agree with 90% of your
philosophy but can not understand why you are for a flat broad
based tax when you know the super rich are stealing everyone's
lunch.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 02:37
6pak @ who are you ?>(@ who are you ?): - 6 pak, who are you?
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 01:49
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com >(bpuetz@holli.com ): - Night all: It's been another interesting day at Kitco!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 01:45
6pak Get a Grip @ God's Place>(Get a Grip @ God's Place): - WW June 22 @ 01:32 : JUSTICE UNDER THE LORD !! Soooo, the no talent
Bureaucrat, fat corporate slugs, are not also GOD'S Children, EH ! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 01:32
WW @New England>(@New England): - EARL: Congrats for your analysis and even bringing up this sort of issue.
Ask yourself WHO ARE THE REAL GREEDY IN THIS SOCIETY!! ANS: THE PERSON MENTIONED IN YOUR BANK MERGER STORY IS TYPICAL!! Why should these no talent bureaucrat fat corporate slugs get any honor when they have done violence to American workers and their families ( so much for family values when they conflict with corporate stk option profitability ) . Stk Mkt Crash = Justice under the Lord!!
If YOU are beginning to see it things are changing and I think for the better at least politically. Again we are becoming a society of WHO YOU KNOW and NOT HOW GOOD YOU ARE!! and RUSH IS A HYPOCRIT for trying to intimate otherwise and pass on the patently false prosperity theology!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 01:19
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: The seeds are indeed sown and will likely bear a bitter harvest. .... but like it or not the Suits and the big cigars will escape the end result.
By way of example, today's Oregonian had an article on the merger of US Bank and Norwest. The ceo of US Bank will receive $24 million, plus tax relief, plus $1 million per year in lieu of pension benefits, plus another million or so in salary until retirement in 1998. It was also reported that 4000 jobs would be cut in order to save $400 million. ... The only source of comfort may be if he invests it all in US debt but I doubt it. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 01:15
Secret Tapes Rubin to Greenspan>(Rubin to Greenspan): -
Greenspan, inflate! But don't make it look like
you are inflating! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 01:02
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Puetz: You're the first person I have ever seen draw that explicit and vital distinction between currency systems. The distinction is probably common knowledge to most but, until now, it wasn't to me. Thanks, it helps clear some contradictions I've always held in such matters.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:45
WW @New England>(@New England): - STEVE: I view the current credit expansion as deflationary. Using future funds for current purchases. Obviously this will have a domino effect on the current over leveraged economy. The stories about all the good jobs ( I believe the crappy jobs exist ) might better have been authored by Leverentia Beria in Russia under Stalin or J. Goebbels under Hitler in Germany 1935. Goebbels always said the bigger the lie the more it will be believed. As mentioned in an earlier post I am acquainted with well qualified young people with college degrees who can only get hamburger flipper type jobs. Advancement is based on who you know not how good you are. The seeds for the demise of this PAST great American Capitalism have been planted. SO BE IT!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:45
Puetz @ New Goldbug>(@ New Goldbug): - New Goldbug: By your 00:03 posting, I see that you understand the credit system we presently operate under. Congratulations!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:40
Puetz @ Lance Owen>(@ Lance Owen): - Mr. Owen: In general, I thought your 23:33 posting was great. The only point I will agrue on is this: How can you conclude that government credit-instruments will collapse in value, and in the next sentence say that we will have a hyper-inflation? Won't the holders of those collapsing credit-instruments have LESS money after the instruments have collapsed in value?
For those who refer to the hyper-inflations of Germany in the 1920s and in Latin America in the 1970s, do you understand the differnce between a monetary system the is CURRENCY-BASED and one that is CREDIT-BASED?
CURRENCY-BASED monetary systems do end with hyper-inflation. But, CREDIT-BASED systems eventually collapse with deflation of the credit. In other words, the credit becomes worthless.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:39
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Small Trader @23:59: Congrats on your former success. Perhaps, you noticed, there was a sign obove the entry door. It read: Abandon all hope, ye who enter here. The astute observer will soon recognize that a large faction of the Stopped Clock school of investing has secured quarters here. Fully in the belief, that as day follows dreary day, our hour is finally at hand. Perhaps you have also noticed, that the hour of our redemption coninues to elude us.
Fear not fellow investor. Lay aside your heavily laden purse and join us in our quest for profitable rectitude in an imperfect world. Your sudden change of allegiance, from paper to stuff, may be a harbinger of greater things to come. Perhaps you are but the vanguard of legions. ...... In the meantime: It ain't wise to go bottom fishing. Ya just lose a lotta' rigs that way. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:34
6pak War @ how many since WW II>(War @ how many since WW II): - Vieserre June 21 @ 18:02 : Yes, I see a material significance to this.
I suggest, that War had not ended after the WW II conflict. I expect,
that many 10's of thousands died, each and every year, since the end of
WW II. Approximately 40 conflicts have occured each year. Yes, this is
Inflationary, in a slow methodical manner.
I suspect, that the world has had enough of the commie, pinko, red
scare tactic, the world is tired of war. The world industrial complex,
is operating at an average 60 % to 70 % capacity.Maybe less, at 50 %
Consider, war causes shortages, should the world industrial complex
operate at full capacity, ( 100 % ) were will prices go, up or down ? obviously, the world Elite, have a peace time deflation problem now.
( 1997 ) I expect, and hope, I have given an appropriate reply. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:31
Puetz @ mistake>(@ mistake): - WW: Sorry. I did mis-lable you. Our politics are different.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:28
Puetz @ Inflation/deflation >(@ Inflation/deflation ): - WW: In your recent postings, you referred to credit-expansions and bankruptcies. Do you agree that inflation is the credit-expansion, and bankruptcy is a symptom of a credit-expansion
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:24
WW @New England>(@New England): - STEVE:I do not want to get into politics but you made a comment about my positions.
1 ) I am not a Liberaterian/ I do not like what they believe in!!
2 ) I am an economic pro-social liberal in a Roosevelt/Kennedy/Lbj sense!!
3 ) I am a social conservative in the Roman Catholic Church sense. I am in somewhat agreement with the Christian Coalition on social matters but in disagreement on economic matters ( for the most part ) .
Peace to all!! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:19
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW: As a form of courtesy, please refrain from lumping us into categories. I realize that many, including myself in the past, have been equally insensitive to your position by including your views in the socialist camp. For the times that I have been guilty of the same offense; I apologize.
I don't think there is a person on this site that advocates the buttering of our bread in halls of congress by means of force of law. It's abhorrent both philosophically and practically.
If the people who do routinely use the rule of law, to better themselves at the expense of their rivals or Americans in general, are to be labelled as Conservatives; I think it's fair to say that none of us are included in that camp. If you will do an honest appraisal of opinion expressed on this channel, I don't think you will find even one post that even hints in that direction. ie, more govt control of the other guy.
The label of conservative is abhorrent to me personally as it would if I were labeled a socialist. Many others probably feel the same. If we do not share your views on specific govt programs, we should not be stuck with a label anymore than you should for your specific views.
Damn, anything to put that political crap to rest!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:15
WW @New England@CREDIT END!!!>(@New England@CREDIT END!!!): - ALL: When you have massive debt the monetary creation is not inflationary because of supply/demand. The ever increasing debt slows demand but as long as the ever increasing credit overcomes this everything is ok. The salutory effect of the liberal bankruptcy laws can not be overlooked. Since there is now an acceptance of high debt levels ( because of their availability ) and bankruptcy is ok ( as it should be given bank advertising ) the situation has gone beyond anything previously recorded. The end is near because final demand and thus earnings can only go down. Unless they can run the cos. by firing all!! HaHa!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:12
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com >(bpuetz@holli.com ): - Eldorado and WW: In a broad sense, people like you are called libertarians -- social liberals and fiscal conservatives. I am libertarian also. I shudder at the platforms of both the Republicans and Democrats.
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:09
Puetz @ Mike>(@ Mike): - Mike @ 20:23: Excellent, excellent posting!!!!
- Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:08
Puetz @ Inflation/deflation debate>(@ Inflation/deflation debate): - Eldorado: Regarding your 21:20. Yes, there has been very little discussion about inflation/deflation. I'm not sure what to make of it. Maybe you're right. Maybe most people don't understand the difference between money, credit, receipts, and the like. If so, I don't think further discussion would really be useful.
The point of the questions was to get to the point where we were all talking on the same wavelength. Eldorado, by your prior comments I know you understand these subjects, but I'm not sure others do. And it seems, as much as I try, I fail to convey to others the differences in these areas. - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:03
New Goldbug Buy_Gold!>(Buy_Gold!): -
THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM CREATES MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR
Let’s take for example the most recent account of the thin air paper money production — the new $100 bills. The Federal Government placed
$485 billion of the new $100 bills into circulation, but they only removed $400 billion of the old ones. This is a decrease in power of the $100 bill by 21%.
This has happened many times since the incorporation of the Federal Reserve System in 1914. Since its inception, the Federal Reserve has been
creating money as debt, which in return creates money out of thin air. This is achieved with ink and paper only. This act is inaugurated when this branch of the government extends an advance to the government, banks, businesses, or to individuals. This liability money is the money on hand that is used for cash flow, which creates money out of thin air!
Presently, the Federal Government is only paying the Bureau of Engraving an estimated $23 for printing 1,000 notes. [This price is all inclusive.]
Consequently, the Federal Reserve is only paying $230 for each 10,000 lot of notes that is generated. This is $230 for 10,000 of any denomination.
Moreover, they must obtain a guarantee of collateral equal to the face value of the notes. Let’s take a look at this. Before the Federal Reserve
ordered $100 notes into existence, they sent a request to the U.S. Bureau of Engraving for 10,000 notes. [Remember, this was a total cost of $230.]
Then the Bureau of Engraving acquires a guarantee from the Federal Government of collateral equivalent to the face value. This guarantee is made to the Reserve by Congress. Now, here comes the part that should concern you ¾ the consumer. The collateral that Congress pawned against this guarantee is the land, labor, and assets of the American people. Is this THE type of representative government that we want to support? The Federal Reserve System thinks liabilities are wealth!
In general, the banking institutions generate currency by monetizing debt. The Federal Reserve System thinks liabilities are wealth! This would make your debts and my debts extremely prosperous if we were to abide by this interpretation. However, for the most part, we have no way of monetizing our debts. As usual, a government procedure is absolutely useless to the general public.
BUY GOLD and SILVER! - Date: Sun Jun 22 1997 00:00
Puetz @ 1998 DJIA forecast>(@ 1998 DJIA forecast): - Vieserre: My 1998 forecast for the DJIA -- at least down to 1500 sometime before yearend 1998. That's based on expected economic conditions, current dividend yields, and present book values.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:59
Small Trader @Bull Mkt>(@Bull Mkt): - I have been making a bundle by owning Mutuals and avoiding gold at all costs. I am hoping this sight will help me to know when to change. You boys and girls are getting me close to pulling the trigger. Keep the talk goin' Thanks all. Especially Cherokee.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:57
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Panda: I'm not sure what you meant about short-interest business. By chance, did you mean open-interest in derivatives
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:55
Puetz @ Credit expansion>(@ Credit expansion): - WW: You said it -- credit-expansion. In spite of all of the positives in 1929, massive credit expansion sealed the fate of the 1929 bubble. The same is true in 1997, except the credit expansion is many times larger than the 1929 case. This time, the expansion is so huge, I believe it will topple the why system -- both monetary and political.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:52
Puetz @ Spud Master, Panda, Lurker>(@ Spud Master, Panda, Lurker): - Thanks for your earlier comments!!!!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:51
Big Trader omega followed by alpha>(omega followed by alpha): - I am not I;
He is not he;
They are not they.
omega followed by alpha - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:50
Puetz @ alias>(@ alias): - I'll admit it. I used Big Trader alias once. Someone earlier today said Big Trader had multiple users. They were right. Also, either Vieserre or George Cole has used the Lurker alias. They are the only 2 people who spell my name wrong -- just as the Lurker does. ( Peutz instead of Puetz )
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:46
Ben Wanghneer wangby@vet.purdue.edu>(wangby@vet.purdue.edu): - Georgia, Your analyses have been very consistent and logical. It would
have worked had this been a rational market. I agree with you that the
markets are so high that any new investment in it would be speculative.
But, on the other hand, investing in gold has always been speculative
and it is virtually a zero growth sector. Predicting a cycle bottom is
more difficult than predicting earing disappointment.I took your advice about two month ago and put 20k into a gold mutual
fund. It has taken a dive ( I was fully responsible for my investment ) .
I want to hold a little while, probably until August. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:37
George s. Cole Progressive Review>(Progressive Review): - WW: Check out their web site: http://emporium.turnpike.net/P/ProRev/
You will find much food for thought. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:33
Lance Owen lowen@istar.ca>(lowen@istar.ca): - Steve Puetz - Eldorado
Debt, Deflation, and Hyperinflation
The Coming Economic Collapse
The economies of the U.S. and the world are about to go through a deflationary collapse similar to the deflation precipitated by the the crash of the U.S. stock market in 1929. The upcoming collapse will hit the stock, bond and real estate markets. Ordinary people must protect their investments if they are to survive the disaster that is about to hit them.
The reason for the upcoming disaster is the growth of debt for all sectors. The U.S. Federal Government debt grew at least 500% in just 15 years. This is far greater than the growth in productivity which averaged perhaps 1% per year. Productivity is a measure of growth in the production of goods and services, and one could argue that the growth in debt should match this number if inflation was zero. But the growth in total debt is perhaps 10 times the growth in goods and services which is what people will want to spend their money on.
There can be no doubt that this debt is overvalued. This debt is listed as an asset in pension and mutual funds. There will soon be a recognition by the markets that the value of debt or bonds is too high and there will be more sellers than buyers and the bond market will crash. The stock and real estate markets will soon follow as the value of so many stocks came about because corporations borrowed heavily thanks to favourable tax laws. The same thing is true of real estate. The value of real estate depends on buyers being able to get low interest rates. But when the bond market collapses interest rates must rise and soon after the value of real estate will fall.
For decades there have been more buyers than sellers of paper assets as a young population saved for retirement. But now the aging population is cashing in its paper, so prices must come down as there are more sellers than buyers. Because of the fact that there were more buyers than sellers for so long, the government could have a string of deficits that grew in size much faster than the economy. The excessive amount of debt was not a problem as people were willing buyers of government bonds. If they didn't buy bonds they would use their cash to buy goods and services causing a horrible inflation, for the the growth in the money supply must lead to higher prices. The Government passed favourable tax laws to make it desirable for people to hold their assets as bonds rather than cash, to avoid an inflation.
The coming collapse will happen because of a combination of excessive debt and an aging population which is the demographic disaster. The U.S. will probably have a panic situation as people dump paper assets and buy anything tangible. Prices will rise and the U.S. will be lucky to avoid a hyperinflation.
In my book you can read about the history of the U.S. economy since 1933 when the U.S. went off of the gold standard and went on the paper standard, where money was now backed by paper, and how the banks and the government conspire to create money out of nothing. I also look at the numbers, using government statistics to show that the U.S. is bankrupt. Also, I compare the present situation with the pre-1929 crash situation which are essentially the same. Also, I suggest what will happen, using historical precedents and make some suggestions as to what ordinary people can do to protect themselves.
If you are interested in this topic I will send you a copy of my book ( 30,000 words ) for $10. Send a postal money order to me at the address below :
Lance Owen
PO Box # 19147
4th Ave. Postal Outlet
Vancouver BC Canada
V6K 4R8
Send comments via email to: lowen@istar.ca - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:31
George s. Cole bear markets>(bear markets): - WW: The 1929 and 1987 parabolic rises ended in crashes. But the ruling financial authorities are much more committed to preventing a meltdown today. So it is not certain that this bull will end with a 1929 or 1987 type crash, although such an outcome is quite possible.
One thing for sure, though. When this bull ends, it will be a LONG WAY DOWN. Rubin and Greenspan might be able to prevent a crash, but they will never be able to head a bear market off at the pass if one is due. In fact an extended 1973-75 bear market could be even more damaging to the mass of investors than a crash. As we gold investors have learned, long bear markets have a nasty way of keeping hope alive via numerous false rallies. This entices people to stay in the market long after they have gotten out. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:27
WW @New England>(@New England): - George S. Cole: How do I get a hold of the Progressive Review. I think alot of our self proclaimed conservative compadres are backing the evil empire ( my kids are watching the Star Wars Trilogy ) . Maybe they will start to see the real enemy if they start to read such publications to which you so rightly reference.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:18
tarnished @ Torpedo>(@ Torpedo): - I think Ted = BT,BS and Bubba
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:16
TED @THE END>(@THE END): - This is it!! Last damn postin fer three weeks...Tarnished: I'd like to continue our intellectual discussion but it is taxin me pea-brain so much Iez gettin a head-ache....and feel like I must lie down....Got 4.5 hours to rise+shine and the express to Swan's Island....TO ALL KITCOITES: HAVE A GOOD THREE WEEKS!....you too Tarnished!.....ROAD TRIP............
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:09
George S. Cole Fidelity>(Fidelity): - Noticed that Fidelity Investments is laying off 250 people because profit margins have narrowed a bit. Can you imagine the layoffs in the financial industry when the bear hits in earnest?
Food for thought from The Progressive Review
The game plan of America's ruling mandarins absolutely assumes a widening gap between the governed and the governing, between rich and poor, one that will have to be met by force of one kind or another. Those in power are prepared to do business with least favored nations abroad and to suppress least favored citizens at home.
When the s..t hits the fan, things are going to get very very ugly in the good old USA. As I have argued before, when capital starts to run just a little bit scared, there is no telling how high gold will go.
WW: There are indeed many similarities between the economy and financial markets of 1929 and 1997. But the public is MUCH more heavily involved in the stock market today than it was in 1929 or 1973 for that matter. The political ramifications of either a crash or an extended bear market cannot be overemphasized. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:09
TED @nukeSUB>(@nukeSUB): - I think Tarnished=BT,BS,and NDPer
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:09
WW @New England>(@New England): - ELDO: As a Liberal I stated that I am against the overeaching of capital versus the working people who pay taxes. To be more explicit, I am against the influence of Capital on the people who control our hard earned dollars ie Congress to be used for anything other than the benefit of the good citizens who paid the taxes. Foreign aid and bailouts NO payoff SS and Medicare to those who paid the taxes YES!! Its simple please tell me where your principals disagree?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:03
Speculation @>(@): -
I think BT=that Hong Kong multibillionare. Can't
think of his name. Maybe a housewarming gift to the
new landlords? - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:02
tarnished @Destroyer>(@Destroyer): - I think Ted = B.T & B.S
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 23:00
...... .....>(.....): - omega followed by alpha
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:55
TED @battleship>(@battleship): - I think Tarnished=BS
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:35
panda @:-)>(@:-)): - If weren't so serious, it would be hilarious! Imagine a derivatives failure due to the coding of the pricing structure. An option, say XXXit, could be a September 100, 200, etc. call. What if, due to a computer glitch, you were holding some $400 options. The market moves against you. The index now sits at two or three strikes out from your options strike price. Then, the big brainiac computer, screws up due to a 'coding' problem. Presto! Magic! Your options are now deep in the money by one strike or more! YES!!!! Talk about irony. I'm sure those folks there at my 'brokerage' read my posts! So this problem should be 'corrected' by Tuesday. Think of the possibilities though, Global financial markets were thrown in to turmoil today due to a 'programing' problem. You are 'broke'. Don't worry, we will have this fixed by tomorrow. Honest. And you will be worth something again, less commisions of course. LOL :- ) ) :- ) ) :- ) )
Where did I put those coins! - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:31
Hyper Inflation>(Inflation): - Steve Puetz - The term hyperinflation refers to a very rapid, very large increase in the price level. Measurement problems will be too minor to notice on this scale. There is no strict formal definition for the term, but cases of hyperinflation tend to be expressed in terms of multiples rather than percentages. For example, in Germany between January 1922 and November 1923 ( less than two years! ) the average price level increased by a factor of about 20 billion. Some representative examples of hyperinflation include:
1922 Germany 5,000%
1985 Bolivia 10,000%
1989 Argentina 3,100%
1990 Peru 7,500%
1993 Brazil 2,100%
1993 Ukraine 5,000%
These quotations are given mainly as examples of what people have in mind when they talk about hyperinflation, and I cannot say just how accurate the figures are. In any case, figures for the purchasing power lost in hyperinflations can only be rough estimates. Numismatics ( coin and currency collecting ) gives some examples of just how far hyperinflations can go: currency collectors tells us that, in the Hungarian hyperinflation after World War II, bills for one hundred million trillion pengos were issued ( the pengo was the Hungarian currency unit ) and bills for one billion trillion pengos were printed but never issued. ( I'm using American terms here -- the British express big numbers differently ) .
The story behind the German hyperinflation illustrates how all hyperinflations have come about, and is of particular interest in itself. After World War I, Germany had a democratic government, but little stability. A general named Kapp decided to make himself dictator, and marched his troops and militias into Berlin in an attempted coup d'etat known as the Kapp Putsch. However, the German people resisted this attempt at dictatorship with nonviolent noncooperation. The workers went out in a general strike and the civil servants simply refused to obey the orders of Kapp and his men. Unable to take command of the country, Kapp retreated and ultimately gave up his attempt.
However, the German economy, never very sound, was further disrupted by the conflict surrounding Kapp's putsch and by the strike against it; and production fell and prices rose. The rise in prices destroyed the purchasing power of wages and government revenues, and the government responded to this by printing money to replace the lost revenues. This was the beginning of a vicious circle. Each increase in the quantity of money in circulation brought about a further inflation of prices, reducing the purchasing power of incomes and revenues, and leading to more printing of money. In the extreme, the monetary system simply collapses. In Germany, people would rush out to spend the day's wages as fast as possible, knowing that only a few hours' inflation would deprive today's wages of most of their purchasing power. One source says that people might buy a bottle of wine in the expectation that on the following morning, the empty bottle could be sold for more than it had cost when full. Those with goods to barter resorted to barter to get food; those with nothing to barter suffered.
This is the way that hyperinflations happen: by a self-reinforcing vicious cycle of printing money, leading to inflation, leading to printing money, and so on. This is one reason why inflation is feared. There is always the concern that even a little inflation this year will lead to more next year, and so on. But some countries have experienced very great inflations -- 50 to 100% per year -- without ever falling into the cycle of hyperinflation, and there has never been a hyperinflation that could not have been avoided by a simple government determination to stop the expansion of the money supply.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:30
tarnished (@dinghy)>((@dinghy)): - I think Ted = B.T
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:28
NJ elliott>(elliott): - panda : take heart http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/wrapup.html#wrapup
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:28
Mike @>(@): - and to srike sooner: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970620/tech/stories/2000_2.html
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:26
Mike @>(@): - MILLENIUM BUG growing bigger: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970620/tech/stories/claims_1.html
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:19
panda @>(@): - What to make of all this? It's Saturday, and there are no food fights going on! How can this be! With gold in the tank, the mining stocks in the tank, my options so worthless the Schwabee miscalculated their value and gave me an extra 4 1/2K in my account! I think that I'm being converted to something here. I'm just not sure to what I'm being converted too!
It just goes to prove the point that this is all cyber money now. I wonder how long it will take them to figure out the error? Now that's something that we could all bet on ;- ) ) - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 22:02
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- I do not think of myself as a conservative. I do not think of myself as a liberal, or socialist. Perhaps, only an individualist who doesn't care about messing his bed; Not a tree hugger per se, but also not wanting undue spoilage needlessly happening. I'm all for new technologies. All of us won't fit into existing caves. The technologies that will be coming to fore will be absolutely amazing! Most of which haven't been particularly publicized. In the mean time, we have a problem! Monetary in nature and very retrogressive in its extreme. That is where my concern is at this time. Irregardless of what the Bob types say about it, this debt based monetary system is inherently flawed. From the day it was born! Now its' day is at hand. I could almost be sure from your postings that we are both mainly on the same track. Perhaps the way we would go about solving a problem differs somewhat.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:56
vronsky Beethoven’s Ninth & Schiller’s Ode To Joy With Central Bank Brass>(Beethoven’s Ninth & Schiller’s Ode To Joy With Central Bank Brass): - Oracle of Alberta has orchestrated an interesting concert of Excess Money Supply, Glut of U.S. Debt & the Gold “Chaperone” in his “Ode To Joy.” Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:55
TED @tarnished>(@tarnished): - Tarnished ( 20:15 ) Seven hours till lift-off....are you skeptical of BT or am I reading something into your comments...your answer would be appreciated...
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:41
WW @New England>(@New England): - ELDO: Thanks for the compliment ( i think ) . I am a Liberal with respect to protecting peoples rights from the overreaching arm of capital. I believe the people and workers should benefit from their taxes and not be robbed for the benefit of the Capital Mkts as is happening with SS and Medicare. My question to you is how can you think the way you do and call yourself a conservative. You may think you are conservative yet have progressive tendencies. A progressive is one who wants the govt to represent the interests of all people in an equitable manner and is against overreaching by the monied sectors. I have gone on about this before and I just want to agree to disagree re politics as I will never change you and you will never change my leftist leanings.
I voted for Clinton in '92 and '96 but only because of his opponents/he was the lesser of two evils/politically. However, I have nothing but disdain for him and am amazed at how timid the Conservatives have become vis a vis this person!!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:36
gold gold@gold>(gold@gold): - Something to think about.
Governments have been selling ie issuing currency and bonds for a long time and prices of these things is going to all time highs.
Companies have and are issuing stocks and bond and the prices are rising
In some cases, a secondary offering can result in a quick share rise as the secondary has created liquidity that allows an interested large party to get into the shares with more ease.
The reason gold has been dropping is because it is in a bear market; ALL news is bad.
In a gold bull market, I think that a announced sale of gold will cause the price to rise as it will allow large interests to get into the market with a minimum of price disruption.
OBTW, which is easier for corporations and gov’t to aquire/issue and then sell, gold or derivatives.
Gold
p.s. In my opinion currency is a derivative... of gold. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:30
MIKE @>(@): - WW: The timing of the decline is the one trillion dollar question. Scenarios for the end:
1. Every possible source of new funds has been exhausted and the ever present sellers are no longer matched by buyers ( the bubble has reached every last victim ) . This could happen without warning. This scenario would lead to the most brutal selloff. This is also the scenario which is the hardest to time.
2. Investors get increasingly nervous. There should be signs for this: increasing volatlity, increase of put premiums relative to call premiums.
I have heard that such a development in options premiums predated the 87 decline. If sufficiently nervous, investors could pull the plug even before all funds are consumed.
What to do? Determine how much money you are willing to lose. In that framework devise the longest lived short position possible. Check out option spreads. I have also thought about laddered short selling of SPY ( 1/10th the SP500 level ) . Say: sell short 100 SPY at spx=900, then 100 more SPY at spx=920, 100 more SPY at spx=940,... as the index level moves against you the position gets under water more and more but the index needs to retrace only 50% of its rise from the level at the beginning of the short sale to bail you out ( excluding commissions which are a very substantial consideration! )
If you want to take more risk, you can increase the stakes at each short sale: short 100 SPY at spx=900, short 200 SPY at spx=920, short 300 SPY at spx=940,... In this case the position gets under water more quickly but the index has to retrace far less for you to get in the black.
There are obviously endlessly many variations on such a strategy ( increments in spx levels at which the short sales are made, number of shares SPY sold short at each step ) . This is easy to implement on a spreadsheet. I did this for fun. Do not neglect commissions. They add up substantially. Keep a column to show you how deep the position is under water at each short sale, and compute your net gain if the index retraces n% in each of three cases:
1. The n% retracement begins immediately after a short sale has been made ( most favourable scenario ) .
2. The n% retracement begins immediately before the level is reached at which the next short sale occurs ( worst case ) .
3. The n% retracement begins in the middle between index levels at which short sales are made.
To be able to program this easily on a spreadsheet I have used short sales at equidistant index levels ( 900+kd, k=0,1,2,.. ) . The number of shares sold short at each step is constrained by the requirement that short sales occur at round lots ( at least with my broker, Schwab ) .
If you like spreadsheets, this is fun to play around with. When the position gets to your maximum tolerable drawdown, take the loss and close out. Minimize commissions. The impact of commissions on rpeated trades is substantial. SPY is a security traded on the AMEX and devised to trace the SP500 at 1/10th its level ( SP500=900, SPY=90 ) . Bid/ask spreads are very small and SPY can be sold short on upticks.
Good luck and have fun.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:30
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Steve Puetz -- Perhaps, more aptly, one should ask what 'debt-based' money means to a system, and how it exacerbates both inflation and deflation!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:20
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Steve Puetz -- I notice that nobody has taken up your 'challenge' to put forth their views on what exactly inflation and deflation is. Perhaps the question of what 'money' is also should be put forth. Perhaps, everyday, , the question of debt repayment should be put forth. Maybe someone will eventually 'get around' to answering it! Havent' seen it yet! How about it BOB?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 21:09
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- Your postings of late continue to amze me. How in the H__l can a liberal/socialist even have this type of mentality? Perhaps you be neither? In any case, my congrats?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 20:41
WW @New England>(@New England): - MIKE: GOOD POINT. The real question is when does this fizzle. Is it so much more powerful than 29 that it will continue for years. I believe that mkt psychology has reached such a level that sideways action for even six months would be unacceptable and thus slow inflows and therefore trigger a decline. Given the expectations of the money in the mkt a decline is unacceptable. The question is whether the authorities have the power to arrest and reverse the decline. As the bubble grows bigger and more euphoric their ability to do this is decreased. When Greenspan spoke of irrational exuberance maybe he was thinking we rescued it in 7/96 but if this continue at some point it wont be possible. Obviously they did in April '97 but now the bubble grows bigger and this latest parabolic rise has created a high degree of certainty in investors. Our rise from 4/14 has now eclipsed the 22.4% rise from the end of May,1987 to 8/25/87. The final four months of the rally in 29 gave us 29.9% which would take us to 8200. Yet compared to the end in 87 and more notably 29 ( because of the similar economic situation ) we are rising at a more parabolic rate. What do you think this means? Comments please.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 20:37
REB na>(na): - Ted Butler et al: Maybe there's a relationship between uncollectible gold loans of CB's and various trial balloons about selling CB gold. One way to deal with uncollectible loans would be to just let the borrowers buy title to the gold they have borrowed. This could be done off-market with no effect on gold price ( I think. )
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 20:23
Mike @>(@): - SPUD: The stockmarket bubble has an exponentially growing appetite for supporting funds. The end comes swiftly: it is like the story of the lake that is being covered with waterplants doubling in area each day. It starts out with one plant, the next day two... It might take 10 years until half the lake is covered. How long will it take until it is all covered? ONE MORE DAY.
An exponentially growing bubble is like a disease. It spreads quickly and then it burns itself out. The faster it moves up, the sooner the end will come. This would even be true if there was not the psychological problem ( perception of risk and fear of loss ) or the demographic problem ( fewer are coming after the baby boomers ) .
If the growth of stock market capitalization outpaces the GDP growth for some period, the reverse must be true in subsequent periods. Now theoretically it could be that stock prices simply languish and wait for the GDP to catch up without ever having a bear market. But this is not really very likely. Investors, disappointed year after year, will at some point decide to pull out in force. When that point is reached we have a self reinforcing trend down, even more impressive than the upmove.
Personally I believe any capital gains tax reduction will lower the threashold to pull the trigger. Thus I don't see this as bullish.
DON'T GET DRAWN IN NOW. The paper wealth in the stock market now is an illusion. The illusion could grow bigger in which case it would be a bigger illusion. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 20:15
tarnished @rough waters in dinghy>(@rough waters in dinghy): - Hi TED, Thor chased me inside.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't BIG TRADER
say that the XAU would be at 130 by now?
Guess we're gonna have one HELL-of-a spirt on monday...hahaha - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 20:08
6pak Impressed @ Ode to Joy>(Impressed @ Ode to Joy): - Oracle of Alberta - Ode to Joy -
@ http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta620.html
Great post--very impressed by Some say that the division between
earthly existence and a Spiritual existence may be very thin
In addition your reference to WHITHER NATURE'S CAPITAL ?
I was reminded ( Twigged ) to reference Chief Tecumseh ( I am Shawnee ! I
am a warrior ! ) Sell a country ! Why not sell the air, the clouds, and
the Great Sea, as well as the earth ? Do not the Great Good Spirit make
them all the use of his children ?
Your post refernces World do you know your Creator....above the stars
must He dwell
Chief Tecumseh How can we have confidence in the white people ?
When Jesus Christ came upon the earth, you killed Him, the son of your
God, you nailed him up ! You thought He was dead, but you were mistaken.
And only after you thought you killed Him did you worship Him, and start
killing those who would not worship Him. What kind of a people is this
for us to trust ?
http://www.ilhawaii.net/~stony/shawnee.html - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 20:03
WW @New England>(@New England): - VRONSKY: Excellent article though the Dow hit its high of 385 around Labor Day of 1929. If you look at things back then it is hard to believe the crash happened.
1 ) America was the leading Capitalist nation after WWI.
2 ) America was a creditor nation/ no federal debt.
3 ) Capitalism ruled the world and there werent even quasi socialist countries in Europe like there are today let alone Red China. Even the USSR through adoption of its New Economic Policy which allowed private enterprise was becoming capitalist. In fact the auto ( Fiat/Ford ) and oil ( oxy ) were taking advantage of the situation and opening up shop in the newly liberalized Russia.
4 ) There was the development of new technologies radio and auto etcet which were coming in reach of everyman thus allowing for a staggering growth potential in earnings. This is not to mention the potential growth from export mkts and opening of overseas plants to take advantage of cheap labor like in Russia.
5 ) Labor Unions a non factor.
6 ) A Pro business President and a conservative Congress.
7 ) The stk mkt was creating a wealth effect which heralded America's dominance and the victory of commercial ties for American Cos. and future earnings.
8 ) The economy was growing at a moderate noninflationary pace with good job creation.
The foregoing should surely overcome any problems with consumers being over extended in credit. This 1929 is a new era and credit expansion is the modern way of doing business which reflects consumers new sophistication about what is going on. It is also a way for him to meet his needs as income growth is stagnant on a broad base because of competition between labor both here and overseas. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:57
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - My attitude about gold has been show me. I am not interested in gold unless it decisively takes out the 1987 high of $410 or so. If it does that the next major resistance is around $500. Thats when everyone jumps on the wagon and really gets it moving. The boomers will do the same thing to gold at some point as they are doing to stocks, albeit a much shorter duation move in gold. Fishing for the bottom here is a waste. Im waiting until a significant move is underway
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:41
Vieserre home>(home): - Steve Peutz: There are at least some on the street who apparently do not share a very bullish outlook.
June 18 ( Reuter ) - U.S. stock market analysts and money managers feel Wall Street may have seen its peaks already this year, and forecast only a moderate rise for 1998, according to a Reuter survey. An informal poll of nine market watchers found a mean forecast of just over 7500 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, some 200 points below current levels. The median forecast was 7800. The mean forecast for 1998 is about 8315, an 11 percent rise over the 1997 prediction. The median at 8625. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:32
WW @New England and ITS THE ECONOMY STUPID>(@New England and ITS THE ECONOMY STUPID): - I have an older friend who has kids in their twenties who are college educated and polite and presentable. One has computer experience. GUESS WHAT? None of them can get jobs except in sales ( no benefits )
or hourly type low paying jobs as telemarketers and such. Jobs ARE plentiful as people want people to work for next to nothing. When the Stk mkt crashes the LIE about the economy will come to the fore. This is something both the Political and WAll St. Class dread.
There you have it the sad and regretable truth. Even the Europeans refer to the US as a Hamburger flipper economy. Our press has gone propaganda crazy over the econmy ( helping the stk mkt bubble ) because it helps BC. If a Republican ( I am liberal on somethings but definitely recognize the obvious press bias in favor of Clinton and generally anti-conservative attitude of the same ) were in the WH they would be harping about the job problems and the financial bubble. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:32
panda @>(@): - BBL......................
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:30
panda @>(@): - S & P 500 INDEX ( .SPXIT ) 113 + 3 3/ 4 [Closing quote from CBOE]
For those unfamiliar with options, the above is the price for one S&P500 index option strike price $900 Sept expiration. The index closed at 898.70. Your cost for one contract is $11,300 + comm. These guys are figuring a S&P500 at 1,000 by September! A mere ELEVEN percent rise in two and a half months. With returns like this, who needs, banks; To work; To do anything but party!
Puetz -- Remember, the Bulls have been eating Bear lately! This means that the buyers of last resort may not be there when needed. As for this short interest business, could this be hedge related and not necessarily outright bear positions? - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:28
Vieserre Dying Breeds>(Dying Breeds): - Dying Breeds and endanger of extinction: A gold bull and a DOW bear.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:20
Lurker @>(@): -
Steve Peutz: Let me get this straight. Are you
saying we should sell? Seriously, thanks for the
info. Definitely food for thought. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:19
panda @>(@): - MoreGold, 2BR02B, Puetz, Spud Master -- The line given by Granville ( ? ) is that the boomers know they're not getting Social Security. Therefore, in to the market they go! Op cit ( Granville ) , the market can't fall because the boomers keep buying every dip! Sooooo, Dow one bazillion here we come! This from a former bear?
Nightly Business Report had a stock sear from Isreal who predicted Dow 8000, and I believe he is now forecasting Dow 12,000 by the end of 1998. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 19:10
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Spud Master Right on!!! When you can put a missile down a chimney and lead the world in capitalism the market can only go up 12600 by 2001 yes bullish all the way.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:46
Spud Master Dow 9,000 ... 10,000 ... 25,000 ... 4e09 ... >(Dow 9,000 ... 10,000 ... 25,000 ... 4e09 ... ): - So Mr. Puetz, tell us how you really feel about the stock market? ( grin )
My word, owning gold & silver has been THE LOOSERS CORNER for the last fifteen years. What makes you think that the Fed & Crew can't control this stock market runup forever? At the least, until the Baby-boomers begin to retire in 2010 ( 65 years from 1945 ) , I can't see the Dow doing anythnig but just going up & up & up. Of course, it is insane, but since when, in these enlightened times, has reason & sanity prevailed against the opinion behemouth of television? I could see some Asian wars screwing things up for Greenspan, Rubin & Bill - but - man, we've just been loosing like crazy on gold. Prove to me it will change - please! Hey, and what about the gazillion ounces of gold and platinum that those International Platinum boys in Arizona claim they've got ( trying to keep a straight face ) - won't that make gold cheap enough to line the Oval Office, just like Lenin said?
Spud - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:32
vronsky Vieserre (I Have a Question)>(Vieserre (I Have a Question)): - YOUR: ...“Or in any other case where two opposing types of assets have diverged to substantial extremes, and if so, the outcome and when.”
Another review of 1922-1929’s IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE and aftermath,... in addition to the pervasive finacial euphoria just prior to the 1973-74 market debacle would provide some enlightenment, insights and possible lines of probabiliy. The title of the study is:Gold Stocks & the Great Crash of 1929 - REVISITED,” seen at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html
Of course there were differences. In 1929 we were on the Gold Standard - but FDR by a stroke of his mighty quill increased the vaule of the noble metal from $20.67 to $35 in 1934. And in the 1973-74 period we were off the Gold Standard - due to Richard Milhouse Nixon closing the Fed’s Gold window in 1971. However, the common thread in all three cases ( 1929, 1973, and 1997 ) was the IRRATIONAL DISPARITY BETWEEN THE ILLUSORY and UNREALISTIC VALUE OF PAPER ASSETS VIS-A-VIS the INTRINSIC VALUE of REAL ASSETS ( i.e. gold related ) .
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:32
Puetz @ Bearish stocks.>(@ Bearish stocks.): - Ted: It was the corporate offerings that had me shaking my head this morning as I read Barron's. $40 billion is an unbeilvable amount of securites to dump onto the market in 1 week. Especially after a big week of offerings last week. And especially considering the degree of junk issues in that volume.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:28
Puetz @ Bearish stocks>(@ Bearish stocks): - Ted: I will not deny it. I'm bearish stocks. In fact, a lot so.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:26
Puetz @ Joke of the morn>(@ Joke of the morn): - Tort: Aye rally, rally licked you're poem these mourning. Aye jist left end left as aye red it. Your quit a good righter.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:16
Vieserre home>(home): - Tortfeasor: No doubt your right, I have never known TED to surpress a thought. : )
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:08
very interesting bulls vs. bulls>(bulls vs. bulls): - As of fridays close there are 25 % bulls in gold and 75 % bulls in stocks
( ex-goldshares ) .
These seemed to be two rubber bands; one streched up and the other down - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:07
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre): - Vieserre ( 17:22 ) Who ME?...Hi Tort!....BBL...more last minute projects.....
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:05
2BR02B? coosbay@ore gone>(coosbay@ore gone): - MoreGold - Ralph! A-camp-aura, or ore, uh, or...
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:02
Vieserre home>(home): - 6pak: Thanks for your insight. I understand that after wars a period of deflation usually occurs. But unlike other wars, since world war II prices have steadly risen even though on a year to year basis at a continung lesser degree. Do you see any material significance to this.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 18:00
MoreGold @60000 going once, do I hear 70, going twice .....>(@60000 going once, do I hear 70, going twice .....): - Guest market monitor on Friday's NBR predicted a minimum
for the dow 20 years from now of 40000. He stressed this was his minimum, and that it was probably going to 60000.
Irational exuberance? - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:56
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Zealots- Bless the fools for torment is painful
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:51
MoreGold @lurker>(@lurker): - These sound like none standards bars. The standard is .9999, and should be from a recognized assayer.
I suspect that these bars would have to be refined, and hence the discount. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:50
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net): - A very interesting article by Ted Butler over in gold eagle about the manipulation of platinum and palladium. Does anyone know if this is the same practice they have been using to suppress gold and silver, even though the consumption of silver has been greater than the production for the last several years? Any thoughts?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:50
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Fidelity Select American Gold & Precious metals Charts
5 Years, 30 day comparison and hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969 - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:40
Torfeasor Gold bars>(Gold bars): - Lurker, them be cheap bars my laddie--further evidence that gold has bottomed out.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:31
lurker @ get real>(@ get real): - found this in kitco clasified
William Cook ( GoldenMan@WebTV.net ) :
for sale, 100 one ounce gold bullion bars, .9995 fine; $300 each - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:26
Tortfeasor Re: Ted>(Re: Ted): - Vieserre, my experience is that Ted is anything but anonomous; maybe he lurks, maybe not. His wife says he is a good lurking guy I understand.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:22
Vieserre home>(home): - TED: Reason I asked is that I thought as a remote possibility you may have been that anonomous lurker.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:14
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Ted, I'm glad the tooth fair left you a dime there on your pillow--I would sue for a Krugerrand in lieu of the dime if I were you--at least it wasn't paper. The state of things makes one wonder about tomorrow; however tomorrow will come and we must deal with the events which greet the new day as best we are able. We can and must gird up our collective loins and prepare for the worst--perhaps a bar of silver here, a Maple Leaf there, here a little, there a little, then we can sleep the sleep of the just; we can dream when there are economic hurricanes and tornadoes which would take our houses and thresh them as chaff in the wind. But we who listen to the wisdom of the etchings which form at this sight ought to be wiser than the orginary investor; we should be a subtle as snakes, yet harmless as doves.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:13
6pak comment @ maybe of interest>(comment @ maybe of interest): - Ridgid controls during the period of hostilities. GOLD, protected against
change [ MODERN ARTIFICIAL CONTROLS ]. Past record [ TA ], affords, at
least a rough guide, to the future. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:08
mikeharry canada>(canada): - dow:gold is better than 23 to 1, no sign of dry land.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 17:04
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre): - I like your ode on ET....um...Mean BT....BBL as gotta few things to do...
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:49
Vieserre home>(home): - TED: I you have not read it, take a look at my 9.01
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:46
Vieserre Short>(Short): - Steve Peutz: Thanks for posting the alerts. I am in accord with at least a short term market top. Leaders IBM, CPQ, CSCO, MU, TXN, ADM, MTC all have double or more tops in place. IBM and MSFT struggled all day as well as other market leaders I follow on Friday. I have already prepared my short list.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:45
TED @puetz>(@puetz): - Puetz: Are you a stock market bear Tort: The tooth fairy just arrived
..... - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:36
Puetz @ ADVICE>(@ ADVICE): - SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL. Sell stocks on the opening on Monday morning, June 23rd. SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL.
And, buy GOLD and SILVER coins. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:33
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 20>(@ RED ALERT # 20): - Quarterly window dressing is usually complete 1 week before the end of the quarter ( for cash settlement purposes ) . Hence, stock purchases made to get rid of cash holdings ( these days, most investors think cash is trash ) have probably already been completed. As a result, a buying vacuum is likely to appear during the next few weeks.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:31
6pak Comment @ Maybe of interest ?>(Comment @ Maybe of interest ?): - Historically the broad pattern of war is that of *inflation* followed
by *deflation*. The *inflation* may be contained by rigid controls
during the period of hostilities. But at the war's end *controls* are
relaxed, and then the pressure generated by deficit financing are likely
to vent themselves in an explosive rise of general prices.
War weakens and cheapens the dollar - especially if it is paper dollar.
Stock prices as a whole may be expected to rise, sooner or later, to
reflect this cheapening of the dollar. The course of the stock market from 1900 to 1951, shows a fairly close over-all correspondence between
the rise in stocks and in general prices, although there have been
significant divergences for fairly long periods.
During WW II the earning power of our leading companies was held down by
price controls, renegotiation and the excess-profits tax. Nevertheless
the Dow Jones industrial unit averaged earnings about 20 % higher than in
the pre-war period. Secondary or smaller companies showed, in the main, a
much larger expansion of net profits. The post-war earnings of business as a whole proved unexpectedly large and well-maintained.
The emphasis by government on maintaining full employment makes the
encouragement of new investment a primary element of state policy. Here
we may have in part the explanation of the paradox that while American
business was complaining about the hostile attitude of Washington, it was
registering the largest recorded rate of earnings on invested capital,
computed at original cost.
It is interesting to conjecture why investors and speculators are acting
logically in the present crisis, whereas under similar conditions in the
past they have been dominated by the more obvious psychology of fear.
Let us venture the suggestion that what we are witnessing is the maturing
of *inflation* consciousness, which-by an awkward but not too surprising
coincidence - is about contemporaneous with the maturity of the first
Series E Savings Bonds. There can be such a thing as a panic to buy as
well as a panic to sell.
The stock market in 1951 is far from resembling a buyers panic; but the
definite signs all around us of uneasiness concerning the value of the
paper dollar, and of investments tied to the dollar, suggest that a
definitely new guiding force is entering into the psychology of the
investing public.
The spectacular and ill-fated New Era stock market of the 1920's began
about 1924 with an analogous and quite soundly documented realization
of the long-term superiority of stocks over bonds. Other conditions,
however, were as different from today's as one could imagine.
Perhaps that is a good reason for repeating the French maxim that was
made to order for Wall Street:
THE MORE IT CHANGES, THE MORE IT'S THE SAME THING. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:29
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 19>(@ RED ALERT # 19): - Retail sales have declined for 3 consecutive months. This is usually a sign that a recession has started. The last time the economy peaked ahead of the stock market was in the year 1929.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:26
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 18>(@ RED ALERT # 18): - The S&P Industrial dividend yield is now down to 1.57%. That is, S&P stocks are at least 3 times higher than they should be.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:26
Vieserre Portfolio Reallocation>(Portfolio Reallocation): - George Cole: Thanks for the comment. I believe relative value between stocks and gold should play a role in portfolio diversification on any market sell-off, on which I am presently contemplating as a possible reason for investor demand. The CPM Group attrbuted portfolio reallocation for the rise in gold in early 1996. Its reasoning follows:
Simply put, many investors returned from the holidays convinced that the U.S. bond and equity markets would not continue to provide 33% returns to investors, as they had in 1995. Even if investors believed the U.S. stock market was not going to collapse 10% or more, the prospect for a reduced rate of return was sufficient to encourage asset reallocation moves. Some of these funds moved into gold, silver, and platinum. Confirmation of this is obvious in the appreciation of other assets in the first two weeks of 1996. Once gold prices began to demonstrate what could be called real strength, based on physical demand from longer term investors, proprietary traders and shorter term market participants began establishing long positions in the gold futures and options markets, pushing gold prices sharply higher.
There are differences today obviously, but similar reasoning may apply.
I expect the market to correct soon which may coincide with a bottom in gold. But no guarantees.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:24
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 17>(@ RED ALERT # 17): - The S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio now stands at 22.3-to-1, one of the highest levels ever, and a clear sign that stock prices are too high.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:22
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 16>(@ RED ALERT # 16): - The CRB commodity index has declined sharply during June. This signals that deflationary pressures are mounting -- which means that corporate profits are likely to turn lower rather soon.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:20
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 15>(@ RED ALERT # 15): - The CBOE call/put ratio of daily trading volume has been unusually high for the past month. That's very bearish. This indicator is giving a clear-cut sell signal for stocks.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:18
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 14>(@ RED ALERT # 14): - Bearishness is building for the ANTI-DOW -- gold. The latest CFTC report shows speculators are short 36,000 contracts of Comex gold futures. As a contrary indicator, that's bullish for gold. Gold usually moves opposite to the DJIA. With the technical situation for gold improving, a sudden gold-rally would be bearish for the DJIA.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:18
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 14>(@ RED ALERT # 14): - Bearishness is building for the ANTI-DOW -- gold. The latest CFTC report shows speculators are short 36,000 contracts of Comex gold futures. As a contrary indicator, that's bullish for gold. Gold usually moves opposite to the DJIA. With the technical situation for gold improving, a sudden gold-rally would be bearish for the DJIA.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:14
vronsky FED CHAIRMAN AUF DEUTSCH - Views On the Gold Standard>(FED CHAIRMAN AUF DEUTSCH - Views On the Gold Standard): -
Due to incessant growing demand from Germany, we have translated into German Greenspan’s candid thoughts on the Gold Standard. For your German reading friends, see Analysis section bottom gold bar entitled: “Gold und wirtschaftliche Freiheit.” Hello, HELLO Bundesbanks Herr Presidente Hans Tietmeyer - located at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis.html
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:14
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 13>(@ RED ALERT # 13): - Speculation is just as rampant in Treasury Bond futures. Specs went from 30,000 contract short on 4-25-97 to 32,300 contracts long on 6-20-97. That is a near-record long position. And it's another contrary indicator saying to sell now.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:11
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 12>(@ RED ALERT # 12): - Speculators in S&P 500 futures have just accumulated one of their largest long positions ever. This has a good track record of being an excellent contrary indicator. For example, instead of being long at the bottom on 4-18-97, they were short 18,800 contracts then.
The present situation comes closest to matching what happened during August 1987. Back then, speculators were short 23,500 contracts at the end of July 1987. During August, they first went on a massive short-covering spree. Then, they went long 4,300 contract at the top of the market -- right before stocks crashed. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:10
George S. Cole market top?>(market top?): - Peutz: Agree the stock market is going to start a pull back by the middle of next week. But I don't think it will be too serious. Still a little too early via my time cycle analysis. Also small caps still have not done much on the upside. And gold has been smashed.
Still think the big one will begin later this summer, probably in August. By then gold should be doing considerably better. Small caps probably will have had a good run. And by mid-August this bull market leg will have lasted half as long as the previous leg. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:04
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 11>(@ RED ALERT # 11): - Speculation is running rampant. Junk bond issuance is running at record levels, Brady Bonds are popular. Whatever is risky, speculators are buying like there's no tomorrow.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 16:02
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 10>(@ RED ALERT # 10): - OEX Put/Call open-interest stands at 68.4% puts. Above 65% gives a sell signal.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:58
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 9>(@ RED ALERT # 9): - The Dow Utilities have failed to make a new high with the DJIA. Such a divergence is normally bearish for the DJIA.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:58
George S. Cole Dow/gold ratios>(Dow/gold ratios): - Ted Butler: Thanks for your rapid and detailed reply!
Vieserre: Gold is cheaper today relative to the Dow today than at any time since the early 1970s. The Dow now buys about 23 ounces of gold. This is approximately the same as the relationship that prevailed in the early 1970s when gold was still trading at the controlled price of $35 per ounce. We all know what gold did during the subsequent 7 years.
The Dow/gold ratio hit an all time high of about 28 in 1966 when the Dow briefly hit 1000 and gold was still being kept at $35 per ounce by the infamous London Gold Pool.
Of course, extremely cheap valuations do not in themselves trigger bull markets. But they do give us some idea of risk/reward potentials. These have rarely been better in gold, and have never been worse for stocks.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:56
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 8>(@ RED ALERT # 8): - The DJIA last-hour indicator gave a sell signal on Friday. This indicator takes only the change in the DJIA for the last hour of trading, and keeps a cummulative total. The index peak on 5-5-97 at 6180. Fell to 6035 on 5-9-97. It then recovered to 6145 on 5-30-97. Then, on Friday 6-20-97, it dropped to 6003 -- below the 5-9-97 low, thus giving a sell signal. Last-hour trading usually forewarns of trend-changes in the DJIA.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:55
telecaster @ Big Trader: The Great Pumpkin>(@ Big Trader: The Great Pumpkin): - Vieserre- re your 9:01. please stop it! I'm dying laughing! got to run..
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:51
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 7>(@ RED ALERT # 7): - The 10-day ARMS INDEX ( which measures the volume going into advancing and decling issues on the NYSE ) gave a sell signal this past week.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:49
Jack Now lets see?>(Now lets see?): -
Big Trader is doing what we all do expressing ideas
Problem is that there may be several using his handle.
To accurately predict, within a time frame, with all the
major manipulations it is difficult and BT, as many here
is doing so.
My quesses for what they are worth; is that BT's time
frame corresponds almost exactly with Hong Kong's return
to China.
What would happen if a major or a series of terrorist
events occur on the former crown colony, terrorist
organizations primarily cause confusion and confusion
creates unknown reactions.
Most Central Banks are not selling gold, but using lip
service to keep their large US $ currency reserves
viable. Perhaps; the approximate $10 billion, they lose
every time gold drops $10 is starting to get to some of
them; and that means of defending the dollar is losing
support.
I hope that only the real Big Trader posts, as I
appreciate his thoughts. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:49
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 6>(@ RED ALERT # 6): - I keep a composite sentiment-poll for the financial markets. The poll consists of 4 stock market surveys, 2 bond market surveys, and 2 euro-dollar surveys. I started recording this composite index in 1994. This past week, the index rose to its highest level ever -- at 537.
Other high points were 499 on June 23, 1995 -- a 2-month consolidation period followed for the DJIA. 495 on February 16, 1996 -- a 5-month consolidation followed for stocks. 532 on November 29, 1996 -- right before the irrational exuberance break. 493 on February 28, 1997 -- 2 weeks before the March-April break began this year.
Caution is certainly in order with the index now at 537 !!!! - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:41
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 5>(@ RED ALERT # 5): - The most recent Market Vane poll of stock market bulls shows 80% bullish -- the highest number of bulls since I started tracking it in 1994.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:40
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 4>(@ RED ALERT # 4): - The most recent AAII sentiment poll shows 59% of their members are bullish. That's one of the highest readings on record. Other high numbers include 66% bullish the week the DJIA peaked in August 1987 before the crash, and 63% bullish 2 weeks before the March-April break earlier this year.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:39
Byron @ How True:>(@ How True:): - Very interesting observation by Steven Kaplan in his daily commentary yesterday afternoon. It's in the early part of his report as follows: Typically at a major bottom in precious metals, the XAU refuses to make a new annual low while gold, silver, and the Johannesburg Gold Index make new annual lows, which precisely describes the current situation.... I agree. Am expecting the London Gold Fix to take out the Feb, l997 lows on Monday.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:38
TED @BUBBA>(@BUBBA): - Bubba: Thanks fer bein the ugly American this weekend....knew ya had in in ya....
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:36
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 3>(@ RED ALERT # 3): - Corporations are heavily dumping securities onto the public. For the week ending June 13th, $20.0 billion of bonds were sold ( 3rd highest on record ) and $4.2 billion of stocks were sold ( 14th highest ever ) . The week just ended on June 20th, $32.1 billion of bonds were sold ( a new record ) and $8.0 billion of stocks were sold ( a new record ) . The $40 billion of stocks and bonds sold last week was about a half-years supply back in 1980-81!!!!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:32
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 2>(@ RED ALERT # 2): - London has often been a leading indicator for New York stocks. The nearly 200 point break in London last week ( equal to about 350 Dow Points ) portends trouble for the DJIA.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:29
Puetz @ RED ALERT # 1>(@ RED ALERT # 1): - This is the second week in a row of near-record volume. The 2-week volume is a record for consecutive weeks. It has been a 2-week melt-up, reverse-crash, buying-panic -- whatever you want to call it.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:29
Oliver @shows how far can peoples go for the yellow stuff>(@shows how far can peoples go for the yellow stuff): -
This is from Asia Times this week,
http://www.asiatimes.com/97/06/20/20069721.html
Oliver
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:28
TED @ocean>(@ocean): - Spectacular day on the North Atlantic with the headphones strapped on listenin to The Boss...Bruce........Springsteen ya know!...Another commodity that is rising in price and will get higher is Lobster...Our postmistress's husband has been fishin fer over 50 years and this is his WORST lobster season ever...We can see it from the house as all the traps they are pullin up in front of us are EMPTY...This is a major East Coast lobster area....or was!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:26
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - ALL: I just finished reading Barron's Stat-section. There was some amazing new information regarding the stock market. I've gotta' share it with you. 20 items follow.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 15:00
ted butler tedjbutler@aol.com>(tedjbutler@aol.com): - George,
With the caveat that getting hard information on these metal loans is akin to uncovering documented info on the mafia, it is my understanding that the bulk of these loans are done on a 30 day basis and rolled constantly. Since there's such a short time fuse, I would imagine further call provisions would be a moot point. It is interesting that the mining co hedges are long term in nature ( promising material that won't be produced for years ) While the mismatch in maturities is eerily reminisent of the savings and loan debacle, that potential problem palls in comparison to the fact that the currency that the loans are denominated in, is effectively shrinking in total supply. This means that as loan volumes grow ( there's never been a period of net repayment ) , the borrowers lack the ability to repay collectively with metal. Of course, the loans will be settled in some form ( probably in the form related to me in a conversation with a guy at the Fed - who said the loaning central banks might be given some type of monetary settlement in lieu of metal that can not/will not be returned. This is definitely not official Fed thinking as far as I know, just a what if conversation, but how else can it end? )
You can get a real time sense of call provisions by looking at what's happening in platinum/palladium weeks after the crisis. Rates are many,many times higher than what was considered normal after the unilaterial reneging on cash/loan transactions.
As you know, I don't mince words on the metal loans - they are all stupid, fraudulent and will not be repaid collectively as called for.
Vieserre - the only way a mining company can undo a hedge, as far as I know, is to reverse the process by buying whatever they originally sold or its equivalent. I would imagine it would be pretty simple, depending on existing market conditions, of course. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 14:50
TED @DENVER>(@DENVER): - One of the lead articles in the local paper: BOASTING BY U.S. IRKS SOME ALLIES....Who could have ever predicted this....Hi Vieserre! Tort: got yer rocket ship and will be gettin a reply off..U.S. chest-thumping
haha....and Rubin seemed like such a humble guy.....ditto Bubba...and Hillary can't nail a piece os siding on a house...hahaha - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 14:21
Vieserre I Have a Question>(I Have a Question): - STEVE PEUTZ, VRONSKY, OR ANYONE: In comparing the present gold market with the stock market, do you know of any other time when the such extreme divergences have taken place. That is where a very large percentage of investors have acquired stock arising from extreme postive investor sentiment; and conversely, where a large percentage of gold investors have sold gold and gold equities arising from extreme negative sentiment. Or vice versa. And if so, what has been the historical outcome and when.
Or in any other case where two opposing types of assets have diverged to substantial extremes, and if so, the outcome and when. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 14:08
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library): - Sitting here patiently waiting for the Bull to move back in BULL-ion. *poof*
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 13:49
Vieserre home>(home): - TED BUTLER: Further to on the subject of producer's hedged postion, I am not as knowledgible as I should be on the subject, but my belief is that the hedger-producer can unwind his hedged positions to the extent desired in the event of an anticipated rally, although it may be costly to do so. Then the choice is cost vis a vie risk of expected gain. I would appreciate any knowledge you may have on how this is done.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 13:38
Vieserre home>(home): - TED BUTLER: Thanks for the view point. I follow the COT and have observed the build-up; and I agree it has reached proportions inducive of a technical rally. I also notice that NEM is not leading the downside, as it often does in its unhedged capacity, with a down-turn in the market. Rather, it is outperforming the group suggesting accumulation for an expected rally. In addition, at least a few days ago, most of the gold equities on the NYSE and AMX had good accumulation/distribution ratings despite the negativisim in the market. But except for this, the gold market sure looks grim. As to ABX, at the end of 96 it had hedged 6.7 million ounces, about 13% of its reserves, and the company expected to realize $420/oz in 97. If one is in ABX, and the market does move and gold is expected to exceed this price, the play obviously is to move into a stock such as NEM when ABX begins to stall. But at about 500 million per year cash flow, ABX's hedged position provides a lot of cash for favorable acquisitions at these prices and thus something to consider. As to Banker's comments, I agree with your viewpoint, and as to the options, I believe it is just confusingly stated.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 13:23
George S. Cole gold loans>(gold loans): - Ted Butler: Are CB gold loans generally made for a given time period, or can they be called any time at the discretion of the CB? If the CBs cannot call these loans at will, speculation about a physical shortgage if/when they demand repayment would seem to be greatly exaggerated.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 12:35
Tiny Trader rmac@sympatico>(rmac@sympatico): - Thanks for the tip on buying gold coins Panda! Now, could someone puullease answer my question. Thanks in advance!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 12:26
ted butler Vieserre, WW, APH>(Vieserre, WW, APH): - Vieserre,
I've read that Bankers Trust comment you posted a number of times, and I still find it confusing. Leaving the options selling angle aside, the real question is the guy's assertion that there is a lot of selling capacity left by the funds. I don't think so. The latest COT report shows commercials net long 36K ( funds net short that amount, with the small trader net flat ) . As the report reflects positions as of the close Tues 6/17, you have to factor in the big additional fund selling and rise in open interest for the past few days as we broke contract lows regularly. My guess is the funds added to their short position by 15-20K additional contracts, leaving them net short 50-55K. If my guess is correct, you can count on a couple of fingers the times they have been net short this amount in the past 4-5 years ( see Gold-Eagle anaylsis page COT and large specs ) . Since this has been close to the largest net short position the funds have held historically, I question how much additional selling capacity they have left. I am also very impressed that such big additional selling was accomplished on a relatively small move down $3.5 to 4 for the week - it smells like an engineered move. With sentiment at an extreme, it sure feels like a bottom. We'll see.
WW - your posts have been great ( even the old ones ) . You asked a while ago about what the effect a rising price of gold would have on a hedged mining co, and no one responded. I think about that all the time and keep coming up with the answer that it will be real bad. The recent post that Barrick is forward sold for 2+ years or 7.5 million oz or 75K futures equivalent contracts ( I assume it's true, but it's not my statement ) makes me want to ask, if at this time next year gold is 500 or 600 or something, what does that mean for Barrick or any mining co. in that position?
APH - hope I don't jinx you, but you've been deadly. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 12:09
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Thoughts on the almighty dollar The high Unemployment in Germany and France as well as Canada fundamentally should keep these currency's down for the sake of exports to create jobs jobs jobs.I see a breakout on the American dollar soon or a co-ordinated effort to keep it flat.The American Economy is pulling the rest of the World up with a strong currency.If and when Gold begins it's next bull move I think we all could be looking at Vronsky and blue skies.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 11:37
RL @blyvoors>(@blyvoors): - John Disney,
Thanks for your explanation.
I will ask no more blydy questions.
I am on my way today to Richmond, Va. which I seem to remember is a former residence of yours.
Regards,
RL - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 11:33
vronsky TO BUY LOW-PRICED STOCKS OR HIGH PRICED STOCKS (June 23, 1997)>(TO BUY LOW-PRICED STOCKS OR HIGH PRICED STOCKS (June 23, 1997)): - Veteran Market Analyst provides sound common-sense advise of whether it is smarter to buy low-priced stocks or high priced stocks. Dines Letter in Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 11:12
panda @>(@): - BBML
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 11:10
panda @Curious, No?>(@Curious, No?): - Isn't it curious how the 'leaders' keep worrying about a currency crises?
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/21/z0009_278.html - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 11:03
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - Hi Mac Yes B.B.W. certainly is on the right time frame.I think anyone can be long or short any market and be successful if greed is washed from their emotional makeup .
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 11:00
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - For those of you who are linguistically challenged like me you might find the following poem of comfort in your dark dismay and when you can't seem to spell anything right.
I have a spelling checker
It came with my PC.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss steaks aye can knot see.
Eye ran this poem threw it.
Your sure real glad two no.
Its very polished in its weigh,
My checker tolled me sew.
A checker is a blessing.
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right awl stiles two reed,
And aides me when aye rime.
Each frays comes posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The checker pours o'er every word
To cheque sum spelling rule.
Bee fore a veiling checkers
Hour spelling mite decline,
And if we're laks oar have a laps,
We wood bee maid too wine.
Butt now bee cause my spelling
Is checked with such grate flare,
There are know faults with in my cite,
Of nun eye am a wear.
Now spelling does not phase me,
It does knot bring a tier.
My pay purrs awl due glad den
With wrapped words fare as hear.
To rite with care is quite a feet
Of witch won should be proud,
And wee mussed dew the best wee can,
Sew flaws are knot aloud.
Sow ewe can sea why aye dew prays
Such soft wear four pea seas,
And why eye brake in two averse
Buy righting want too please.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:56
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Bye-Bye: Off to read this morning's Barron's. Will check back in at Kitco later today.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:54
panda @>(@): - Tiny Trader -- For every seller there must be a buyer. For every buyer, there must be a seller. The games going on, vis-a-vis the press releases, are done mostly to hurt the leveraged paper traders. If you bought gold at $400 and it goes to $300, you lose %25, not an inconsequential amount. On the other hand, mining stocks have lost between 40 to 60% of their price. Options, well... let's not discuss that. Futures ( long positions ) OUCH! Even with stops, you bled slowly though not as badly.
If things went truly 'non-linear', then physical holders win. They are the 'lender/suppliers' of the last resort. In the mean time, buy some coins, save some cash, and when the INITIAL move happens, be very nimble in paper trading. You will likely not get much notice! - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:53
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - INFLATION vs. DEFLATION DEBATE: Before settling whether we are headed for inflation or deflation, we must all establish agreeable definitions of what it is that we mean when we say inflation or deflation. To do this, I am going to ask a series of questions. I hope these questions prompt wide participation at Kitco. I hope everyone can settle on what these definitions should be. I will give you my answer sometime next week -- Maybe about Tuesday, provided there is enough interest and debate on this topic. With that background, here are the questions:
1 ) What is inflation? Is it monetary? Is it credit expansion? Is it the change in consumer prices? Is it the change in producer prices? Is it the change in calculated-wealth of a nation? Does it pertain only to the market price of new goods and services produced? Or does it count for changes in prices for cars, houses, and other forms of wealth produced many years ago?
2 ) What is deflation? I repeat all of the questions above.
3 ) What are the symptoms of inflation? I repeat all of the questions above.
4 ) What are the symptoms of deflation? I repeat all of the questions above.
Kitco-posters: Have a good debate!!!!
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:37
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - GOLD LOAN COURSE 101: Here's how a gold loan works. A central bank, let's say the Bank of England, is willing to loan its gold out for a small profit. Let's say XYZ Hedge Fund is bearish on the price of gold and wants to sell it short. Here is what happens.
On June 21, 1997, the Bank of England loans 1,000 ounces of gold to XYZ Hedge Fund at a 2% interest rate. Under the terms of the loan, a 2% interest rate is charged for the loan. But, instead of paying the interest in currency, the 2% must be repaid in gold. Thus, on June 21, 1998, XYZ Hedge Fund must repay the Bank of England 1,020 ounces of gold to complete the transaction.
There are several important points about gold loans. They are short-term bearish because they add to existing supply, because the borrowers immediately sell the gold on the market as soon as it is loaned to them by the central bank.
The gold loan interest rate is the amount of gold that must be repaid ( on an annual rate ) to pay off the loan. When the gold loan rate soars, it indicates an extreme shortage of physical gold in the marketplace. This can be caused by central banks unwilling to may additional gold-loans, or by potential gold-borrowers ( such as hedge funds ) in desperate need of either gold or credit.
Finally, long-term, the gold loans are more bullish than they are bearish in the short-term. Gold loans are a way for central banks to add to their gold bullion stocks. Remember, central banks get back more gold than they loaned out. At, some point, during the coming financial crisis, I image the central banks will want their gold back. Then, and I repeat, then, watch the price of gold soar as hedge funds, gold mines, and others that have used gold loans maddly scramble to secure gold in the physical markets to repay their loans!!!! - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:34
vronsky MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VII) - >(MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VII) - ): - Our mania to win at any cost is a Ponzi-like game. And our burgeoning US debt is a cancerous malady infecting John Q. Public. The Cure? Monetizing the debt:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:33
Tiny Trader rmac@sympatico.ca>(rmac@sympatico.ca): - Tiny Trader is curious - someone please help!! Apparently on Friday the price of gold dropped because of speculation that Belgium is going to sell some of its gold reserves. If they sell some reserves, someone else must be buying it. So why would the price of gold drop if some gold reserves are just changing hands?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 10:14
Este on European Gold Mining Investment Forum>(on European Gold Mining Investment Forum): - At this Forum Barrick Gold announced 7.5 moz. of forward selling of gold ( 2-1/2 years of production ) . This can only imply a negative view of the gold market as far as Barrick is concerned.
The general mood at the Rorum was one overwhelming bearishness.
Could this be the final proof of gold bottoming?
Nobody, absolutely nobody wants this stuff anymore! - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 09:58
George S. Cole Big Trader>(Big Trader): - According to Big Trader's last post bullion will start a big upside move by the end of next week. We will soon find out if he knows what he is talking about. An even money bet in my judgement.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 09:50
George S. Cole Michael Metz>(Michael Metz): - Thursday's NEW YORK TIMES ran a relatively objective article on recent developments in the gold market, Central Bankers and Option Traders Weigh Down Gold's Price. The article concludes by speculating on the impact of current EMU problems on the noble metal. Oppenheimer's Michael Metz -- perhaps the only well known gold bull left on Wall Street -- argues that if gold does not respond to current EMU difficulties I don't know what it responds to.
With Wall Street's last gold bull ready to throw in the towel, can a new bull be far away? - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 09:12
Blonde @Platinum>(@Platinum): - Russia did not begin shipping platinum and palladium to Japan as expected yesterday. Exports may resume in July. Anyone have further info on this?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 09:01
Vieserre An Ode on Big Trader>(An Ode on Big Trader): - Sometime back an unhandled lurker asked me to comment on Big Trader and the veracity of his posts. To that lurker, I reply, I only know what I know, and this is what I know:
The information must indeed be private since no one else knows it,
...and if true, would certainly be valuable to any market pundit;
Thus, to disclose it gratuitously to this group is truly a remarkable gesture,
...particularly since he is known to us, and we to him, only as a BT Poster;
No doubt, he, she, they or it is a very clever or genuine author,
...for some believe what is said is true, and that BT is not an imposter;
The change in syntax in the prose is probably attributable to that of another,
...while the cryptic thoughts must surely be code for only a few to discover;
There must indeed be a reason for E-mails to GFD because BT posts without them,
...and when he tells us it's his last post, he cannot resist another addendum;
That not so Simple Man must forever lurk, because he posts immediately after,
...as an alter ego to make sure we do not miss a meaning thereafter;
Although the market has not responded to any of BT's many warnings,
...it is only because of market conditions in the following morning;
But I have no doubt that if for any reason gold should eventually rise,
...there will surely be those who will credit BT for what they surmise.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 08:49
bw Greenspan's nightmare: Awake!>(Greenspan's nightmare: Awake!): - Greenspan is sleeping in what feels like a warm sweat. He wants to awake but cannot. He rubs a hand over his wet chest. Red. A scream gathers in Alans throat, the vains of his neck engorge, but no sound emerges. His vision weakens, his mind numbs, finally blackness.
Alan awakens prostate on a windy snow covered tarn. He draws his arms across his body for warmth. His vision returns focused on his stomach where snow is melting. He watches as tedrils of red blood-water run across his groin and drip into the blindingly white snow. Taken for the colors alone its almost beautiful, he thinks. Not this dream, anything else. Where is the cave its usually to my left, he thinks.
From the mouth of the cave a figure emerges. Dressed in skins the huge creature blinks as the bright light forces an adjustment in his vision. He spots Alan and a wide grin spreads over his visage. From his belt he draws a small stone knife. As his brother warriors have done from the mists of lost times, the beast will have first the blood of the coming battle. He bares his chest and cuts the four crisp letters in his left breast. Alan knows the word well but how strange to see it in red. Alan closes his eyes and attempts to cover his ears but it is too late, his hands are blasted to the ground. The beast has released a bellow that seems to last minutes or is it hours, it will end Alan thinks. Alans eyeballs are vibrating and pain suffuses every part of his naked body.
Alan so nice of you to come. Danks du. The beast finds these words mirthful and releases peals of laughter that long echo from the surrounding mountains. Alan come here, first we will eat and drink then we go to work. Greenspan walks the fifty feet to the cave, his bare feet cold against the snow. The beast throws Alan a skin garment. Cover your self man, there are young girls abouts. These words are also mirthful, more laughter. The beast is sitting on the snow and gazing down on Alan.
Sit down Alan. I suppose you require another skin. It is provided and Alan sits. What will you eat Alan? Mutton and your good brew, Alan responds. Food and drink appear. A lyre is heard from within the cave. Three girls emerge from the cave. Two comb the beasts head hair while the third applies a clear jelly to his wound. The beast ceases eating and stares intently at Alan. Greenspan wants to keep looking at his food but this is impossible. Alans head is forced to tilt upward until his gaze meets the beasts. Alan tries to close his eyes but he cannot. Now come the words Alan thinks. Please no! So Alan, you will tell me now. Why have you betrayed us? - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 08:43
POLARBEAR usual>(usual): -
JOHN DISNEY.
A big thanks for the great info on the Blyvoors ( Durban ) deal. I promise not to ask any more BLYDY questions for the rest of the week!
Here's my attempt to explain the current state of the metals market:
Market prices are determined by the ATTITUDE of investors to the current economic environment rather than by the true environment itself.
I sure hope they change their attitudes soon! :- )
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 06:21
Yogi Bear @ watch this little buddy>(@ watch this little buddy): - Boo Boo, I feel like layin a spread on us while the Ranger is out of
town. Bear spread that is. See those lovely lookin holiday makers over
there? Well watch me snatch that picnic basket from right under their
noses. Boo Boo stop lookin at me with those melancoly eyes and go find
Cindy Bear. A bears gotta do what a bears gotta do. HEY HEY
OH Yogi you know I hate getting into trouble. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 06:00
Bonnie & Clyde What we gona do>(What we gona do): -
Bonnie: After reading all these posts at Gold Eagle, I
believe that the governments worst than we are.
Clyde: I agree, but how we gonna get rid of all these new
fifties?
Bonnie: On our trip across the country, we can stop at
all the coin dealers and gun shows and buy some gold.
Clyde: Good idea Bonnie.
Bonnie: Nite Clyde
Clyde: Nite Bonnie - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 05:57
Eldorado @$10 down>(@$10 down): - Simple Simon -- That fall you had previously mentioned to the mid 330's seems to be happening. Just a few more bucks to go. Think they got that plane cleaned up yet?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 05:38
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To No One in particular
Some one probably said this kind of thing before
but I believe that the demand for gold is quite
different from the demand for gasoline or wheat in
that for the most part, it is not consumed. It hangs
around.
Thus if I had a marketing strategy for gold, my
objective would be to have it as widely dispersed
as possible - bank vaults of course, but also in
museums, peoples drawers, displays, deposit boxes,
wrapped in bands around the arms of Turkish and Indian
women, and as Bogart put it, on the fingers and necks
of swell dames
Coins seem to me to be a possible indicator of
future demand - I dont really like extrapolating past
data to forecast future trends. The Belgian bank sale
of coins seems bullish to me - but it has been taken
as bearish. It seem to me to be a new place for gold
to be more widely dispersed. Will a soft Euro lead to
a big European coin demand
I dont know enough about coins. What about the trend
in premiums on coins like the Krand.
If you recall = Prior to the big run up in the
PGM prices, there was a statement to the effect that
Rubin ( god bless him ) was going to have the mint issue
a platinum coin. Did somebody out there know something
Do these things happen in response to public demand or
insistance, or does it happen by Rubin's semi-divine
decree ( I imagine I know how he would like to think,
having seen the look on his face in the NEWSWEEK cover
photo ) .
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 05:02
tanami thanks@panda_advice>(thanks@panda_advice): - thank-you for that comment on waiting until a move
becomes obvious and the 10-15% ego thing, getting in too
early is destructive to the point survival becomes an issue
i have found. Then not catching the peak one is looking to
see it crest again, but it has gone. Well, your comment
has given me a useful insight. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 04:22
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For George Cole or Joe 6pak or anybody
Gold loans confuse me - Take the arms deal to RSA
from the UK.
I assume it works like this - stop me if Im wrong.
1. London export bank buys gold from Bank of England.
2. It then sells the gold to MR Market ( see BOB )
3. money from 2 gets arms from manufacturer.
4. arms go to RSA and RSA owes export bank same
amount of gold it sold to Mr Market.
5. Interest rate 2.4 %. on this deal
6. When loan due ( lets say 4 years ) , RSA must acquire
same amount of gold to return to export bank ( presumably from
MR Market )
Question if everyone assumes gold will go down
in price, why is rate only 2.4 %. Since RSA can
buy from MR MARKET at say $200, return the gold
to UK and let bank of england and export bank
pick up the small pieces. They lose lots of money.
On the other hand, If this new demand four years out
for gold from Mr Market is superimposed upon the
normal demand, will Mr Market really give it back
for 200$, or will he want some higher number.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 01:59
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For RL and Anybody else interested in the Blyvoor
conversion to Durban Deep that I am getting really
tired of talking about ( and also losing money on )
1 . At the time of the conversion, Holders of old DD
shares will get half an option per share of DD good
through mid 2002 ( or so ) striking 60 ( I recall ) . thus after
conversion, DD will trade EX and fall by about the
value of half an option.
2 Blyvy holders will trade their stock for DD shares
on an ex basis - ie no option at a rate of 5 Blyvoor
to 1 DD.
3. Buffels holders will trade their stock at a rate
of about 1.3 buffles per DD - as in 2 ( above )
4. One blyvoor ADR = 3 blyvoor stock
5. Exchange rate = 4.5 Rand per US $.
6. I would value option at say 4 rand ( although only
Mr Market knows )
7. DD is about 19 rand thus ex would be 17 rand ( NOW -
if there were an ex market ) .
Thus to value blyvoor at conversion time I would
do the following calculation in living mathematics.
BLYVOOR break even price = 17R/5 = 3.4 R
The corresponding $ Blyvoor price is 3.4/4.5 = $.755
The corresponding $ ADR price is 3 times .755 = $2.26
Blyvoor ADR closed at $1.75 thus it is cheaper than
its conversion price ( seems to me )
This is not in any way a suggestion that you buy
Blyvoor. Also my fingertips are sore from typing
this to so many people. Looks like easy money -
I quess so but DD looks like free falling - Also there are
rumblings deal may not go through but I doubt that.
Buy it - dont buy it - Im taking the rest of the
week off. Try the calculations yourself - you might
like it. I hope the above is clear.
*****Note Another check on my option value is that old
Blyvoor options ( to be traded for new DD options also
at 5:1 ) are trading at 0.85 R - and 5*.85 = 4.25 close
enough ) - Please dont ask questions on Blyvoor options
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 01:22
6pak Deflation @ Record proportions>(Deflation @ Record proportions): - Comment on deflation:
Write-ups and Write-downs of the Plant Account.
The country's experience with *inflation* has not been confined to WW II.
The rise in the price level after WW I was of the same general magnitude.
USofA also went through a *deflation* of record proportions in 1931-33.
The effect of these major developments on depreciation practice was
shown in the first instance by changes entered upon the *balance sheet*
In numerous cases in the 1920's, managements wrote up the plant account
to figures reflecting their replacement value in the light of the higher
price level, which at that time appeared fairly well stabilized at about
50 % above the pre-1914 figure. The collapse of the price level after
1929 was followed by a wave of devaluation in the plant account.
In many cases this was accomplished merely by reversing or canceling the
previous write up; but numerous corporations went to more drastic lengths
and marked down their entire plant to depression levels of value.
In 1933 American Locomotive Company reduced the stated value of its stock
from $50 to $5 a share and utilized most of the capital surplus thus created to write down fixed properties by nearly $26,000,000 and its
investment in General Steel Castings Corporation by about $6,200,000.
The net effect on the income account was to reduce depreciation charges
to about 40% of their former level.
The mark ups and mark downs in the plant account in the 1920's and the
1930's had no effect upon the companies' tax payments. They continued to calculate their tax depreciation on the basis of original cost.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 01:17
Bill Buckler hi steve!>(hi steve!): - Steve Puetz - Hi Steve! Have been reading your postings with interest. Actually, I have posted here on and off for about 18 months. Haven't had much time lately but I still browse regularly.
Re your remark about the Brit stock market. The Bank of England have actually raised rates twice over the past couple of months. Not like the good old Fed.
I think that Mr Greenspan is getting plenty nervous. Rate rise on July 1-2 would certainly throw a Bengal Tiger amongst the pigeons, but I don't think the rest of the FOMC will go for it even if he wants to.
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 00:49
6pak Interest Rates @ History>(Interest Rates @ History): - Comment on interest: to debate, and understand, the issue of GOLD:
The 50 year record of interest rates on high grade bonds is surprising.
World War I ushered in a substantial rise in the interest rate, which
was considered the *normal* concomitant of large scale government
financing. However, after several irregular movements associated with
the business cycle, the bond rate in the late 1930's declined to a record
low despite the fact that the Treasury was going heavily into debt
through New Deal deficit spending.
Then came World War II with its incredible expansion of Federal debt from
$40 billion to $240 billion. Nevertheless, instead of rising, the bond
interest rate fell further during this period.
These unorthodox results are generally attributed to *modern artificial
controls* of the money market, by governmental agencies.
( Graham and Dodd 1934 ) - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 00:20
Vieserre A Misinterpretation>(A Misinterpretation): - Steve Peutz: Upon rereading the article, I believe I misinterpreted it. I now believe the article merely states that there were more buys in the spot market than selling of futures with a reason given for the purchase.
But thanks again for your response. - Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 00:10
Fundy Bills Advice>(Bills Advice): - Clinton recommended at the G8 that all other countries adopt US economic policies. Does this mean the best buys in the rest of the G8 are suburban property, moving vans, and guns?
- Date: Sat Jun 21 1997 00:07
Vieserre home>(home): - Steve Puetz: Thanks, I understand that, but how does selling the call affect a fall in price of the underlying future commodity as implied in the commentary, that is where I have the hang up.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:33
Puetz @ always observent and vigilant>(@ always observent and vigilant): - All: Did anyone notice the 200 point break in London's FTSE stock index this week That's equivalent to about 350 points down in the DJIA. London often moves ahead of the US stock market. Could this be another forewarning
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:30
Puetz @ Inflation / deflation debate>(@ Inflation / deflation debate): - D.A.: Government issuance of ever-increasing amounts of debt does not automatically imply prices will inflate as a result. If the free markets mark-down the value of that debt faster than the government issues it, deflation will occur. I believe we are fast approaching that state. Credit is already deflating in the low-end of the credit market as indicated by the massive increase in bankruptcies and defaults.
Once stocks crash, deflation will start at the high-end of the spectrum. When that happens, government action will become helpless in stopping the deflation. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:28
ark salted@the.core>(salted@the.core): - Sorry to rattle the eyes at this late hour but one more thing
Was a whistle blown on BLACK MONDAY in '87 before the music
stopped? I wonder if folks are picking out their chairs?
One of these days a thirty something type or Xgeneration is
going to say, well I might as well cash out and buy my
self a nice vacation and maybe a car, etc.
Now lets see, the value of the equities market is greater
than all the goods/services in the entire country. Hmmm,
I better get my piece of pie before it is all gone. Yumm, yum
scramble, scramble, ouch, don't shove, I was here first,
what do you mean you can't hold it any longer. You should
have thought of that before we left! Line up, we all can't
get through the door at once, children.
We have the greed when does the fear start? It will be terror. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:24
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Bill Buckler: Capt'n, good to see you posting at Kitco. Give my regards to the crew.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:22
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Vieserre: Traders sell volatility in the options market when they believe the market will be fairly stable. In that case, they may sell naked-calls and/or naked-puts to take advantage of the situation.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:19
very small trader @watch your back>(@watch your back): - I finally figured it out.....BT is actually a plant from the Merril Lynch gold call writing division.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:19
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Gold breakdown: I can see the financial stories tomorrow -- Gold breaks support at $340. Louis Reukeyser was gloating on Wall Street Week tonight about the 4-year low in gold. But, silver and platinum haven't broken into new low territory. This is called a non-confirmation. It's also called a bear-trap!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:12
ark salted@core>(salted@core): - What if companies decided to buy gold at these low prices or
borrowed/leased the stuff in order to back their commercial
paper? Would this be a good idea? Wasn't this tried before?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:03
cherokee @buying-opportunity>(@buying-opportunity): - panda-bear-dude-----
your skin be-speaks of opposites. could the black be white
to someone who knows not is a word anymore than an utterance
of basic sounds, with-out being predicated and given meaning by
its' creator?
what's this got to do with anything
nothing.
your chart showing a break down in the price of our beloved
metal is quite mesmerizing! what an incredible opportunity to
be able to play with the maker and breaker of cultures and
civilizations for a pittance!!!! we do indeed, live in quite
interesting times.
can the run-up of the mutual funds continue
when will saturation be reached?
in the shadow of a financial diaspora, what will
the governments of the world do?
what will YOU do
cherokee!; ) friend-of-the-wind, and purveyor of knowledge for
the enhancement of the smoke-signal-mobiles hyper-drive. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 23:00
ezau swami@sag.com>(swami@sag.com): - G.S.COLE@17:35 This sounds like Britian is considering gold
virtual money. Looks like EARL gets the same drift. Gosh,
what a novel idea, use gold as money. Next thing one hears
will be the tobacco companies crying uncle. Fun world, never
know whats going to happen next.
As to my golden butterfly...he got a little dew on his wings
today. Not to worry, when the sun dries him off...up he will
go. For those that deal in logic see B. BUCKLER'S post of
17:58. New stuff, for me anyway. And, yes, waiting for
two years for a stock to bounce in reeeeal tough on the
nerves. : {{
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:48
6pak Comments @ Unknown Direction>(Comments @ Unknown Direction): - BOB June 20 12:28 Your remarks,*twigged* a need to comment, no other reason. Certainly did not expect, to re-direct, the skillful direction, that your comments were headed.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:46
panda @talking.to.myself>(@talking.to.myself): - I see the goldbug spirit has been depressed! In order to avoid 'evaluation', I shall cease speaking to the ether. Least I be taken to the funny farm where every day is a happy day! Good night all............. Remember, keep your powder dry! When the buying opportunity arrives, it will be obvious to all. Be patient. Conserve cash. The first five to ten percent of the main move isn't that important. It's mostly an ego thing.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:39
vronsky TO BUY LOW-PRICED STOCKS OF HIGH PRICED STOCKS>(TO BUY LOW-PRICED STOCKS OF HIGH PRICED STOCKS): - Veteran Market Analyst provides sound common-sense advise of whether it is smarter to buy to buy low-priced stocks of high priced stocks. See The Dines Letter in Editorials:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:37
panda @new.techniques>(@new.techniques): - OK, New tech analysis will be tried next week. I need to get about a half dozen live chickens first though..... I'll report the bloody details later.... :- ) )
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:34
panda @>(@): - Well, I guess gold broke out! To the down side, that is..... What's next? $330, $328, ( gulp ) $325? The only odd thing about this chart is that the breakdown should have happened about a month ago. Normally when a chart bounces this long in a triangle, the triangle becomes invalid and you wind up with a continuation pattern. Odd. So what else is new with gold?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:25
panda @>(@): - For anyone who cares to look at it, Weekly Thirty Year Bond Chart. IF, this follows through as, It could/should, then we should have rising interest rates in a week or two. Under this scenario, I would expect a breakout above 7.2% somtime in October ( ! ) . Of course, this is IMVHO! Take a look and form your own opinion!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 22:17
Poet Top this>(Top this): -
For those about, it could be told, this
Useless metal, should be sold
Can it/will it, it will come back, the
King's still gold
( the frustrated poet ) - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 21:49
RL Blyvoor>(Blyvoor): - John Disney,
You stated that the conversion rate for blyvoors to DDeep is 3.4 and the ADR is below that. I am having trouble deciphering this. Can you give your take on the conversion of blydy ADRs to DD.
Sorry to be so dense but I barely made it through Math For Everyday Living.
Thanks,
RL - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 21:32
Vieserre A Long Gold Market>(A Long Gold Market): - GLENN et al: The following is an interesting commentary on today's market for those who may not have read it. As I do not fully understand the meaning of the last comment, I would appreciate enlightenment.
Spot gold's break back below $340 an ounce this week was viewed as
pretty bearish by a lot of folks, Bankers Trust vice president for
commodities, Scott Kerson said.
The good story is that there hasn't been a lot of fund
participation yet, but the bad story is also that there hasn't been
much fund selling yet, meaning there's still a lot of selling
capacity left in the market, he said.
The rise in COMEX open interest this week reflects short term fund
and CTA selling, Kerson said. But the thing to bear in mind is
that in the spot market a lot of people have been trading in tight
ranges, buying in the $340-341 range, with volatility getting sold
( in the options market ) , so that rather than the market being sold
for a break this week, it was probably actually long, he added.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 21:27
RJ cherokee>(cherokee): - With your window on the soul of gold
And words of duplicitous fornication
Thou hast well and true spied
My plans for the weekend.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 21:25
Mac TheBulls@are-coming>(TheBulls@are-coming): - Poorboys,
Funny you should mention the Big Bad Wolf. I was just talking to him last week and he said we are within 90 days of the start of the bull run!!! He sure did call the downside right - do you think he might be right on the Bull Run. - - - - - - I DO!!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 21:18
cherokee @summer-solstice>(@summer-solstice): - a rising moon. the soulful mourning wail of the loon.
ted hacking in the pre-dawn musk of the morn. yes byron,
there is much to be said for the veiled ones that encircle
our orb. their veil is distance; their shroud, a vacuum of
infinite bitter cold.
gold has been surrounded by a vast paper desert, from which
it has been told, there is no escape. the dunes keep building
from the seemingly in-exhaustable supply of cellulose. the baby
paper-tigers are running amok with impunity, as they have for
the last 6 years. the taskmasters no longer have control
of the breeding stock, and duplicitous fornication is rampant.
easy earl---
the financial animals that have been herded ever so reluctantly, to
and fro, has out-grown its' cage. in fact, the herd has taken
control of the gilded ones' own vehicles. the taskmasters are not
used to going any direction, other than their own.
what a sight it will be, to see the kennedys', klintons', bildenburgers',
etc..., etc...., being run out of town on a rail!
to know the future, study the past.
what political entity, group, commodity, or ideology has, or can survive, the test of time
GOLD and SILVER.
the metals are the ONLY ones to have stood the test of time!!
the metals are the ONLY ones to have stood the test of time!!
if i have seen farther, it is because i have stood on the shoulders
of giants. isaac newton.
cherokee!; ) LONG-time user of soy-oil, and running SHORT on copper.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 21:11
RJ More Bard>(More Bard): - He that had wit would think that I had none
To bury so much gold under a tree
And never after to inherit it.
Let him that thinks of me so abjectly
Know that this gold must coin a stratagem
Which, cunningly effected, will beget
A very excellent piece of villainy:
And so repose, sweet gold, for their unrest.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 20:57
Byron @ Last Word:>(@ Last Word:): - Earl: Monday I guess that the low of London Gold fix of February will be taken out. I believe it was $336.90 and I expect that we are very close to filling the weekly gap that APH mentioned on the XAU. That gap is between 96-97. Once those two items are out of the way, I say we are off to the races. ( Uphill ) . ;+ )
Lights out at the library. Good night. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 20:50
Poorboys Canada>(Canada): - The times they are a changing A year ago Big Bad Wolf was continually beset for his bear position.Today Happy Bears can live side by side with Gold Bulls.Yes I know maybe it's a pipe dream but the diversification of ideas has made this the best gold page on the net.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 20:42
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Byron: Summer solstice? From there, the days grow shorter and so does the gold market. .... ( :- ) )
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 20:33
Byron @ A Full Moon Arising:>(@ A Full Moon Arising:): - Have not hear anything about this being Full Moon time and tomorrow being the first day of summer ( Solar Something ) .
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 20:18
EB GLENN@AUAG - COMEX OPTIONS>(GLENN@AUAG - COMEX OPTIONS): - Thanks for the info...how were those pits today Any commentary for the bleeding souls? Anything anecdotal?
AWAY!
EB
ps
That BIG, BAD, MOTHER of a decling wedge is shaping up quite nicely. There is a BIG, BAD, BULL flag right at the end of it too... Hmmmmmmm...
The SPRING will SPROOOIIIING! ( me thinks someone famous said that ) - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 20:04
oldhand @paranoia>(@paranoia): - Perhaps the powers that be want to demonstrate all is under control before the Denver summit. What better way than bashing gold. Doesn't this always happen before international meetings, or is it my imagination?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 19:51
WW @New England>(@New England): - Congrats/ The boys have broken 340/ we knew they would / rates fall inspite of huge TREAS rollovers coming and need for huge foreign demand/we know its true/ Sell all of the CB and world gold now before the hole 500 billion disappears. Such a surplus!!! Lets sell!!! BUY financials while Wall St still allows us!!!!1
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 19:46
Gene @Reality>(@Reality): - ATLAS COMES! ATLAS SHRUGS! THE WORLD WILL SHAKE!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 19:31
oldhand @bottomfishin'>(@bottomfishin'): - Richard B.
Regarding spot/XAU ratios, take a look at:
http://www.mgl.ca/~yauger/Ratio.html
if you havent already seen it. Note that the ratio line is more distant from the XAU line than at any prior point on this chart. Note that when this happens, it seems to indicate a rally is due. Credit to Yvan Auger for the chart. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 19:30
Tortfeasor Bonus joke>(Bonus joke): - The following story remind me of the activity in the metals market today.
A circus owner walked into a bar to see everyone crowded about a table watching a little show. On the table was an upside down pot and a duck tap dancing on it. The circus owner was so impressed that he offered to buy the duck from its owner. After some wheelin' and dealin' they settled for $10000 for the duck and the pot.
Three days later the circus owner runs back to the bar in anger, Your duck is a ripoff! I put him on the pot before a whole audience and he didn't dance a single step!
So? asked the duck's former owner, Did you remember to light the candle under the pot? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 19:10
Richard Burke @caution is the word>(@caution is the word): - Oldhand & Panda: I am waiting for more of a trend as panda suggests. Thank you both for your thoughts. I am going to watch Deaner's TA, abx volume and the spot/xau differential. I am also going back over the charts and see how the spot/xau differential has worked its way into position ( either 250 minus or 250 plus ) as the xau prepares to move up. My hypothesis is that spot gold must level off and the xau continue to decline to widen the gap from the bear range to the bull range. This must be so if the xau is to lead the gold up. If that is the case we have some down to go with the xau. I'll post the results of my look-back.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:55
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - Polarbear & John D.- boy what a route today, the only share keepin me above water is KRY. Made a little money this week shorting Intel and Microsoft. John most of my former gold share money is in Rebhold, Polifin, Coronation, Richemont, Rambrandt and Sweet From Heaven and doin quite well. How do I participate in the Coke deal in SA.
Screw gold shares buy Stone Container, Wilhamite Ind. and the other
paper and wood prod. cos.
Tally Ho
PS- when the trend turns them g-shares will shine jest fine.
Happy Friday, off to watch the sunset iffin I can see through the humidity, you can cut it with a knife @96F. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:46
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - George Cole: An interesting commentary, that Brit/SA arms deal. We are now in a period where interest rates to borrow gold are far lower than rates for paper. .... and no one seems to pick up on the essential contradiction. The tone and implication of the article, on first reading, is negative but with a moment's thought a question arises: What is likely to happen if more and more commercial transactions are intermediated in terms of gold and not paper? Who knows, it may be the beginning of a trend. ....... Gold carries a lower interest rate that reflects its long term stability. Imagine that!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:45
oldhand @bottomfishin'>(@bottomfishin'): - Richard B., I had also noticed the PDG volume which was a partial factor in my adding to my position, today.
Panda, Yes, bottom fishing is risky. As such, I never use leverage when trying to catch THE bottom. If I'm wrong, then I can sit with my position and not lose sleep. I hope it doesn't take 2 years to come back if I'm wrong, but I can, and will, if I need to. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:44
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - Re: COMEX Gold calls with $5 increments - COMEX options are priced with $10 increments except for the first three months which have $5 increments. So the Dec97 options will be priced with $5 increment strike prices as soon as the Sept97 options expire.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:42
Prospector @north west passage>(@north west passage): - Mooney & Panda - thanks for keeping me ( & all of us ) abreast of the Prague conference. It is very interesting to read the likes of Andy Smith and his take on the role of ( or lack of ) gold in the future. I only wounder if his views are what he thinks is going to happen or is hoping?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:37
vronsky Beethoven’s Ninth & Schiller’s Ode To Joy With Central Bank Brass>(Beethoven’s Ninth & Schiller’s Ode To Joy With Central Bank Brass): - Oracle of Alberta has orchestrated a brilliant concert of Excess Money Supply, Glut of U.S. Debt & the Gold “Chaperone” in his “Ode To Joy.” Click RELOAD at Gold Digest:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:33
panda @>(@): - Richard Burke -- Patience. Even if you caught the, bottom, how do you know how long it will take to bounce back up? Don't take offense at this, but have you ever sat on a stock for two years waiting for it to 'bounce' back up? I have, it's psychologically a bad thing to do. Remember, The trend is your friend, LOOK for it! The only thing worse, maybe, is to do the same with options! In futures, if you don't QUICKLY recognize the trend, you're dead.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:26
panda @Triple.Witching.day>(@Triple.Witching.day): - Before everyone gets all worked up about the volume in the precious metal stocks, please remember that today was a triple witching day. A lot of this volume could be, and probably is, related to expiring stock options, index options ( XAU, HUI ) , and index futures related trading expirations. With that said, the other factor also to be considered is the climax selling of PM stocks. I think the spot gold price over the next week will give us a better 'clue' as to where we might bottom out. I've bottomed fished before, and sometimes got lucky, but most times it's a losing proposition! I'd rather catch the begining of an uptrend than catch the exact bottom. Trying to catch that exact bottom has cost me too damn much money in the past. Enough said...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 18:24
Richard Burke Volumes speak>(Volumes speak): - PDG volume 2.8 million today a huge anomoly looking back to last summer. There was increase in volume at start of Nov and Feb run-ups, but nothing like this. Anyone have any thoughts on this? On other hand, ABX volume just about average. ABX usually gives us a 3 million + day to herald good things. Spot/XAU differential ( Kaplan ) more bearish last few days at around 240. I noticed some of you went long today in stocks. I am still waiting for something a little more positive.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:58
Bill Buckler capt@the-privateer.com>(capt@the-privateer.com): - Never, in nearly 13 years of publishing a newsletter and well over 20 years of watching the market, have I seen such a bearish consensus on Gold as the one that holds sway right now. Even on the Aussie stock market, which is setting daily records, the Gold stock index was gap down on Friday ( June 20 ) . Don't forget, that was *before* the $US 2.80 Gold dive in the U.S..
My recent posting on an $A Gold bottom has been received ( as I expected ) with hoots of derision from the newsgroups. I have yet to receive a comment on the charts.
As I stated a long time ago ( way back in mid-1995 ) at The Privateer website: Gold is a political metal. The $US Gold price action since then has shown just how political it is. The spike to $US 416 in Feb. 1996 co-incided with the end of a year of U.S. government infighting over balanced budget amendments and the US debt ceiling. Once a deal was struck on the budget in February and Mr Clinton raised the debt ceiling to its present level of $US 5.5 TRILLION in March 1996, it has been all downhill for Gold.
And nowhere has it been more downhill than in Aussie Dollar terms. The important Gold price is, of course, the $US price. The $US is the Reserve Currency. For 27 years, it was Gold's surrogate. For 26 more years it has been Gold's replacement. It is obvious that the financial world as it presently exists could not live with Gold as money, thus, the present state of the Gold price.
The $A is a dollar bloc currency and the sixth most traded currency in the world. It was a late entrant in the world's floating currency regime, joining it at the end of 1983. Ever since then, major bottoms in $US gold have been preceded by a bottom in $A gold. This $US Gold bottom, when it occurs, is going to be a big one. The $A gold bottom is the first indicator I have seen since early 1993 that it is approaching. $US Gold is, of course, back to its early 1993 levels.
If you haven't looked at the chart comparing Gold in $A and $US - take a look at the one I just updated. It takes in the $US Gold fall on June 20. I think that you will agree that we are at a fascinating juncture here.
The charts are at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
This is the commentary that accompanies the latest chart - taken verbatim from my website:
$A Gold has now broken out of the downtrend which has confined it since February 1996. In P&F terms, $A Gold would have to re-enter its down channel to negate the buy signal. Technically, that is most unlikely.
$US Gold closed on June 20 at $US 337.70, down $US 2.80. This is a new post-1993 low for the Spot future price. This time, Asian buying around $US 340 did not stem the fall.
Please note that ,other things ( exchange rates ) being equal, if $A Gold comes back to its recently-established uptrend line around the $A 440 mark, it would still be intact technically. In the process though, we would get a downward spike on $US Gold. We shall see.
At both previous major bottoms for the Gold price, in 1985/86 and in 1993, the $A Gold price has signalled an upturn before the $US price. There is no hard and fast rule for the time lag, but the precedent is constant. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:47
ted butler @ the bear den>(@ the bear den): - Bob,
The internet is a wonderful thing. It allows one to state any case and preserve it indefinitely. I. for one, am grateful for the chance to state my opposition to metal leases. Time will tell if I'm right or wrong, just as time will judge your very eloquent bear case for gold. While I do agree that emotion should be eliminated from the equation and gold should be viewed as a commodity, I think you are off on a couple of points.
1. I don't understand the constant 850 reference point. While gold has been a lousy buy and hold investment for some time, the reality is that its price has been within 10% of 370 for 90% of the time for the past 10-15 years. 850 occurred in a millisecond. It would take a move to a level much below 850 ( say 500 or 600 ) to provide most gold investors with a windfall. Going forward, those numbers don't seem unreasonable to me, although the next $5 is hard to predict.
2.I don't think the CBs are the monolithic force you paint them as. The fact is the top five holders ( US, Germany, France, Switzerland and Italy ) haven't sold ( or lent ) an ounce in many years, and these countries account for more than 50% of CB holdings. While the Swiss are talking different now, talk may be cheap ( especially after they see what happened to the platinum and palladium lenders ) . The marginal CBs ( non Asian ) have sold and loaned with a reckless abandon and may be out of material, leaving only talk. Unless the Big 5 rush in fill the void, CB supply looks meager going forward.
3.A large amount of the selling you described by speculators and CBs is short selling. In fact, there is an accumulated equivalent short position of perhaps 200 million ounces or more ( when counting loans and mine hedges and options ) . A short sale does depress price when initiated, but the opposite when covered. Going forward, is it likely we will see massive additional new shorts and loans at these depressed prices? If so, from whom? A naked short position of the magnitude that exists in gold, would be an ultra bullish imperative in any traded item. In the case of gold, the mere cessation of additional shorts could ignite a rally, due to the structural deficit in supply and demand.
In sum, I think you are confusing what has been with what will be. By nature, the bearish case sounds most convincing at bottoms, and the bullish case invincible at tops. Can you imagine a world in which financial trends never reversed? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:35
George s. Cole arms for gold?>(arms for gold?): - The Anglo-Saxon war against gold continues. Governments now entering the fray; not just CBs. I suspect this article was a big factor behind gold'd sharp move down today.
Britain proposes arms sale to SA be
paid for in gold
Stephen Laufer
A BRITISH defence industry consortium has proposed a gold-based arms deal with SA including
corvettes and submarines for the navy, jet fighters and trainers for the air force and tanks for the
army worth several billions of rands over two decades.
The proposal was made in the expectation of reopening the corvette tender by the defence
department following adoption of the defence review by the cabinet and Parliament. The review
establishes SA's future defence force design and will form the basis for all capital expenditure
decisions.
Government sources indicated that the financial arrangement was unlikely to find favour, possibly
because of fears of its effects on the gold price.
British and SA sources said the proposal was in the concept stage. Presentations had been made
to a number of senior government and arms procurement officials.
The trade and industry department is understood to have asked German manufacturers to formulate
a similar global equipment package after French weapons makers responded to the British offer
with a combined hardware proposal of their own. All proposals included countertrade offers.
The British financing model is understood to involve the purchase by a London export bank of gold
from the Bank of England or some other holder of significant stocks of gold for sale on the world
market. The sale would generate the capital for the SA arms acquisitions over several years.
Rather than owe pounds or dollars, SA's debt would be denominated in gold, with repayment in
the metal or its prevailing sterling equivalent.
The overall British package, which includes up to 40 Saab Gripen advanced fighter jets marketed
by British Aerospace and valued at $45m each, could be worth more than R10bn.
The current international interest rate on gold is about 2,4%, significantly lower than the rate for
major foreign currencies. With gold prices said to be in long-term decline, a gold-denominated loan
would on the surface appear to be appealing because of minimal forward-cover risks compared
with dollar or sterling-denominated debt.
An arms industry source said the Reserve Bank and commercial lending institutions had been asked
for comment. The proposal looked like a soft loan, but there was a need to understand its
intricacies. As a novel idea, it had to be looked at very carefully.
SA's major fear would be that a deal of the magnitude of the British defence proposal would have
an adverse knock-on effect on the gold price. Even an announcement that gold worth R10bn was
headed for the market could put the price under further pressure.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:16
EB to SAVAGE DUDE>(to SAVAGE DUDE): - Try this: http://www.minot.com/~bohl/
AWAY!
EB - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:10
TED @ALI>(@ALI): - Ali ( 16:52 ) I agree!...Will be interesting to see what the G-8 comes up with this weekend in Denver...Spinmasters will be hard at work...Time to go to Eddie's...and NO guff from you, Tarnished...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:05
TED @TORT>(@TORT): - Tort: A voice of reason in the wilderness....I'm off fer dinner ( mine ) at neighbor Eddie's but will be lookin forward ta your missive of wisdom on me return....how's that fer puttin pressure on ya....What ya eatin fer din din? I make a wicked cheese+pepper enchilada....with a side dish of SPICY green beans...Eddie gets Macaroni+cheese....
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 17:02
oldhand oops>(oops): - Earl,
I just noticed you post. I didn't mean to plagiarize you. Perhaps we are just on the same wavelength ( pun intended ) . - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:52
oldhand @bottomfishin'>(@bottomfishin'): - Well, if today wasn't the bottom of this wave down, Monday should be. Imho, the XAU looks waved out, and should begin a nice move up very soon, if not immediately. Pessimism is thick, also, which is good.
I personally added to my position just prior to today's close, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Rocket launch countdown is approaching liftoff... - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:52
Ali @goldselloff?>(@goldselloff?): - To all.Why is the swiss franc so solid?It is the gold in their vault!If the Europeans think they can establish a trust in their new EMU, they would be well advised to get a foundation of gold for the EMU too.The european political scene at the present is much to diverse as to make a common currency practical.Conclusion?Gold will find its rightful place yet.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:44
Tortfeasor for Ted>(for Ted): - Yep, my prediction sucked worse than a bad Hoover cleaner. As soon as I can get home, eat and collect my thoughts I will direct my rocket launcher from my pad toward your area.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:42
Tortfeasor Wow>(Wow): - Earl, that was good for me too.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:18
TED @XAU>(@XAU): - XAU down 3.20....Wonder how much of an embarrassment Bubba will be this weekend...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:14
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - If today was not the final selling climax, it's probably a fair intermediate orgasm on the way to the big, --- Oooh.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:08
TED @BT>(@BT): - Is BT Joe Camel
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:03
Joe Camel @attorneysgeneral>(@attorneysgeneral): - Why'd you do it!!!! and Bubba says he don't inhale..
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:01
Byron @ Confirmation of Exhuberance:>(@ Confirmation of Exhuberance:): - Nasdaq volumn is at 967 million. Will they be able to put it over 1 billion before the close?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 16:00
TED @6 pak>(@6 pak): - 6 Pak: I noticed Canucks Corner got shorted before you posted me and I'll give Max HELL...so expect MORE in the future!...I'm on YOUR side...
and good history lesson! - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:56
TED @mooney>(@mooney): - Mooney: Just got done reading : Laughing On The Outside ( The life of John Candy ) by Martin Knelman...XAU down 3.18...Dow up 20...Diversification pays....
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:46
TED @mooney>(@mooney): - Mooney: I miss John Belushi,John Candy, and Jim Morrison much more than JFK...actually have more respect fer Old Joe...crook or no crook!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:44
TED @mooney>(@mooney): - Mooney: I miss John Belushi,John Candy, and Jim Morrison much more than JFK...actually have more respect fer Old Joe...crook or no crook!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:43
BAD TRADER WICKED THOUGHTS>(WICKED THOUGHTS): - B.T. = BROKE TRADER
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:41
NJ DJII>(DJII): - All : Interesting http://fast.quote.com/fq/quotecom/chart?symbols=$INDU&time_period=1-minute%20Bars&bars=600&newstype=480%20x%20360%20GIF&chart_type=Close%20Only&colors=Black%25%252C%20Green%20on%20Transparent&vol=Volume&study=Exponential%20moving%20average&ma_period=50&ke
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:37
TED @ali>(@ali): - Ali: Thanks! I'll get something off to you tomorrow!..Tort ( 10:25 ) Bad prediction!...and I'll get somethin off to ya too...Looks like I didn't miss much today...Comex Gold down 2.80 and the XAU is down 3.09!!..and even the damn Dow is losin speed and is now only up +15...and fallin...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:26
2BRO2B? @blaspheme>(@blaspheme): - Bob- Ye nor thou of ye ilk shan't be espousing heresy hereabouts.
When the truth confronts an orthodoxy, the orthodox beat
down the doubt in their hearts by beating down the heretic
in their midst.
- John Sullivan, editor of the National Review after
being saved from a pummelling by campus security after
a speech given at a college campus. The students were
displeased with a recent National Review magazine cover
lampooning the President in an unflattering caricature
deemed politically incorrect by students.
Myself, I added some FCX C&G silver-denominated depositary
preferred D shares and some more FDPMX today.
Here, where the unorthodox is orthodox, the occasional
goldbear wandering through is analogous to a PETA member
piping up at a meeting of the NRA stating, OK, I'm game.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 15:14
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - NJ: Well put about the dictionary meaning of diatribe. Sorry. Though it might
actually fit considering.. Anyway, my analysis is purely technical and this market
has just not capitulate yet. Central banks continue to sell, demand is strong
but not more than the selling pressure. What will get gold off the mat, I really don't
know... It is a little like asking, what will stop this raging bull market in equities..
Trying to pick a bottom in gold has and will ruin a lot of people. There are many
very intelligent people on this forum.. They try and try to analyze the gold market
forgetting that most investors purchase from the gut.. Pure emotion.. Who ever
picks the bottom of this one will be just lucky. Still, 85 XAU..
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:44
NJ language>(language): - Not a goldbug : Dictionary meaning of the word diatribe is A bitter and violent denunciation. It is not at all applicable to postings made by Vronsky. Would you please explain the reasoning behind your assertion of gold at $300.00 and xau at 85.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:38
MoreGold @PAIN INDEED>(@PAIN INDEED): - Gold spot at 337.70. Couple of months ago I saw a low of 325. for Gold,
and looks like we will at least have to touch that. Many developments since then like Belgium rearing their ugly heads, AGAIN. They seem to be commited to selling off all their CB Gold. What will they back their currency with in case of a crisis: Paper and more Paper. They have no other solution to their deficit, other than selling off their hard assets ( Gold )
and using the proceeds to reduce the amount somewhat, for the short term. What happens when the Gold is gone........
This is so incredible, that there is no political or civil opposition to this type of plan. That is the scariest part of this scenario.
Other european nations will see this quick short term fix, and join in.
Dealers/traders have little reason at the moment to be long Gold. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:35
Savage @home at last>(@home at last): - Howdy Y'all! Just back from western vacation and...frankly, I need some HELP......My favorite daily option quote site ( midstate ) has been 404'd. Can anyone supply me with a URL that posts daily option quotes for 1998 gold ( and or ) silver options? ( unfortunately, Kitco only lists '97 options ) Thanks in advice!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:27
Golden Bear @here we go>(@here we go): - FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS!!!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:24
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - When does the pain stop?.. The gold market is the exact opposite the overall
equity market.. When the bears stop shorting, and everyone becomes a bull, the
market will begin to top.. With gold, when this website is devoid of any thing positive, especially vronsky's unending relentless diatribe, things will begin to
look up. Look for more pain... 300.00 gold and 85 XAU looking good to me.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:15
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*): - As of May 31, 1997, Lipper ranks these as the bottom 20 US fund for six month performance:
BULL&BEAR GOLD INVESTORS -23.5 %
US:GOLD SHARES -23.2 %
MORG STAN IN:GOLD;A -22.2 %
CALVERT FD:STRAT GRO;C -21.7 %
CALVERT FD:STRAT GRO;A -21.4 %
MIDAS FUND -20.1 %
IDS PRECIOUS METALS;B R -20.0 %
STEADMAN TECH & GROWTH X 20.0 %
VAN WAGONER:EMRG GROWTH -20.0 %
IDS PRECIOUS METALS;A -19.8 %
FONTAINE:GLBL GROWTH -19.5 %
VAN WAGONER:MID-CAP -18.8 %
INVESCO STRAT:GOLD -18.5 %
PIMCO PREC METALS;C R -16.0 %
GOVETT:SMALLER CO;A -15.9 %
PIMCO PREC METALS;A -15.5 %
AMER CENT:AC GL GOLD -15.3 %
RYDEX:URSA FUND -15.1 %
LEXINGTON STRAT INVMENTS -14.9 %
VAN ECK:GOLD OPPTY;A X -14.9 %
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 14:13
TEST HELP>(HELP): -
WHEN DOES THE PAIN STOP? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 13:40
vronsky GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report>(GOLDBUG IS BACK WITH SILVER LINING - June 12, 1997 Report): - Canadian Precious Metals Mining Stocks Expert reviews most promising PURE SILVER PLAYS & others. See “Goldbug’s Weekly Comment” - Click RELOAD at Gold Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 13:30
ewp@GeorgeCole ewp>(ewp): - George Cole: Yes in deed .. this looks like the big sell off. Many juniors that I pay close attention to have huge volume versus their normal low volumes. It may be a good buying opportunities ( I did a little buying picking up some juniors including my favorite which I've never owned until today ) with the panickers running for the exits. I hope they're not closing out their mining stocks at the low to rush into the tops of the mainstream equities markets. I will weather the storm with my purchases today ( still under 10% of my total portfolio ) .
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 13:15
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for polarbear
Was told this morning that DDeep merger would go ahead as planned
many shareholders in blyvy and buffels selling out in fit of pique.
( did I say that ) . Thus those stocks trading well below conversion
to ddeep value . Ray if you have heard anything more please let me know.
I figure conversion value for blyvoor is about 3.4 and the adr are well
below that. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 12:28
Bob @...Thanks for the many contributions and rebuttals>(@...Thanks for the many contributions and rebuttals): - Mr. market is the final arbitrar of gold price. The gold paper market attracts speculative money. Speculators are influenced by TA - market dynamics and trends. TA presumes the market is open and perfect ( strong Efficient Market Hypothesis correlation ) . CB's hold about 25% of the above ground gold and substantially more of marketable ( certified bars ) gold. The CBs are a Money Cartel. The Money Cartel has told Mr. Market that they don't like to hold gold as much as in past. The Money Cartel has sold gold to Mr. Market to prove its conviction. Mr. Market got the message. TA got the message. Speculators got the message. Gold is in a protracted Bear funk. The long-term trend in gold price since $850 continues down irrespective of short-term rallys. This is what Mr. Market is telling us.
The theory that people will become disenchanted with paper and dump a sufficient portion to buy gold ( perhaps to diversify ) is possible but highly unlikely. The reason is simple. When in crisis rational people will act to preserve wealth not to chase a speculative rally in gold price. The fools rush in and distort the trend - as illustrated by The Madness of Crowds and, most recently, by Bre-X speculators after the fraud was disclosed ( many did not accept the truth and continued to invest in BXM until the delisting. ) .
Certainly, it only takes a reletively small concerted Bull action ( relative to S&P trade ) to churn a Gold Rally but the long-term trend is down. The Money Cartel knows it. Mr. Market believes it. The trend illustrates and confirms it.
I hope that we soon see a major gold rally ( 365+ ) that could be sustained long enough to lift our gold/stks out of funk.
Mr. Market is sending us all a clear message - Gold may rally but the long term trend is down and will likely continue accordingly.
BTW, a few replys to my recent posts were going off in unknown directions
( for example, 6pak June 19-21:54 ) and this type of discussion does not add value to the fundamental points I addressed: Gold as a commodity, usefulness of TA in determining gold prices, L-T gold price, CB Money Cartel, US$ supremacy/gold proxy, US leadership and economic dominance with particular reference to the IT revolution....all relating the the yellow relics prospects as a montary asset.
Cheers
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 12:14
POLARBEAR hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp>(hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp): - Uncle RAY,
Thanks for the Blyvoors update. I can't imagine selling S.A. shares at this point--they're practically giving them away. I guess the people who think gold is really going to $200 are the ones selling. I can't help but thinking that what we're seeing now is the buy of the decade.
Do you have any more info on the big Durban Deep merger?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:30
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Thanks John. Sorry everybody. I forgot that to mention my good friend John the Hepcat last night, but of course HE has not passed away yet and is therefore still with us.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:29
2weeks HoldenGold@TeeterinRock>(HoldenGold@TeeterinRock): - OK, it's analogy time. Let's go back a few years to Dogpatch, USA, courtesy of the late Al Capp, to the base of Teeterin' Rock. Now folks, imagine there's a rope attached to the big ole' rock and hanging down close to the ground. Well, that rock represents the world financial system. And the height of the end of that rope above the ground represents the price of GOLD. As the rock teeters, a little this way, a little that way, the price flutters within a small range. And those of us who are thus affected, are affected ( read poor ) . But here's the secret - if that rock ever teeters just a _little_ too far, that rope is going to get yanked WAY WAY up in the air.
Of course, the brighter aficianados of this chat will note, well, 2, the rock could always fall this way, you know. Hey, no analogy is perfect, all right?
I love you all. We have entered an era of permanent prosperity, my friends. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:27
APH mistera@inteeraccess.com>(mistera@inteeraccess.com): - XAU - The XAU bottomed on 4/28, the high was on 5/12, 13 market days ( Fibonacci number ) . Monday will be 55 market days from the 4/28 low ( another Fib number ) . I believe we are in the window for a bottom today thru Tuesday. If you followed my posts on Aug. Gold you should be long GCQ7 at 340 or lower, maintain a 338 stop close only until Monday's close. Good Trading.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:27
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com): - Next major support XAU will be 84/85...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:21
John Kennedy MOONEY and MOUTHY>(MOONEY and MOUTHY): - A little mouthy Wow! Thanks for the good word thrown my way though. I was just doing my job. The VOLUPTUOUS babes were just a bonus. Sorry Jackie!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:05
Speed in support of GSC>(in support of GSC): - Barrick ( ABX ) volume at 854300 already. 29 day average is 917000. Source is Pointcast. Platinum is moving back up. Where is the Russian metal?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:03
slick goldbug@windycity>(goldbug@windycity): - Excellent Quotes..... http://www.quote.com/
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:02
George s. Cole DBC>(DBC): - BILLD: You can get quotes from DBC at: http://www.dbc.com/
Actually just checked the volume on the majors -- very heavy in ABX and PDG, less intense but still good in HM and NEM. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 11:02
Ali @bestwishes>(@bestwishes): - Ted,have a nice travel and don't forget your e-mail adresses and ULR's to take along.There are lots of internet cafes around the country,so you don't have to miss what is going on at kitco and the gold market.Ali
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 10:57
BillD @George Cole>(@George Cole): - George, Where are you getting your quotes/volumes from this morning...my quote.yahoo is stuck on yesterday!! Thanks..
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 10:51
Lease Rate For Mac>(For Mac): -
Mooney--10:29--I believe the Gold Eagle Forum has
the gold lease rate. Just a guess here, but if gold
takes off, the lease rate will rise as the physical
metal becomes scarce. Look to Palladium and
Platinum as a model. Two down, two to go. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 10:42
George S. Cole Selling Climax?>(Selling Climax?): - Gold and gold stocks down sharply this morning, BUT GOLD STOCK VOLUME IS RISING ALMOST EXPONENTIALLY. Looks like the selling climax is here. Big reversal likely next week. Don't write off BT yet.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 10:29
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Can Someone, very knowledgeable about Gold Lease Rates, and their significance to the market, please answer the question directed to me on Kitco 2. I could take a stab but I, too, would like to see an in depth answer by an expert.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 10:25
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - XAU Jun 19 100.60 +1.28 +1.29%
Gold down a couple of bucks
Prediction---I see the worm as turning in the old financial apple. Gold will soon follow XAU - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 10:00
RJ Quick one>(Quick one): - EB - They had FNGs in the boy scouts? $338 gold this morning, makes getting out of bed worth it.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:45
Itty Bitty Trader @ Thoughts>(@ Thoughts): -
G7 to open money spigot. Why, you ask? Because
they are staring face to face with deflation, and it
terrifies them. Look for CB's world wide to print
money and lots of it. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:39
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - My gut feeling is that like many of you gold is ready to hit its bottom and head up. The stock market on the other hand is being held in place by Elmer's glue, bailing wire and a whole lot of wishful thinking coupled with unprecedented greed. The euphoria will unravel like a cheap suit in the not too far distant future and dollars will evaporate like the hoar frost on a summer morn under the blaze of the rising sun. Like Don Williams crooned, there is gold in the morning sun.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:30
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - You all know, a drop like this is a prelude to .... Expect Dow up major today... next week ... look out
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:29
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Mike Sheller - SEE. To this day I still stutter when I dwell on that memory! ( besides which, it was late and it is not a word that I use very much - unfortunately ) . Voluptuous, voluptuous, VOLUPTUOUS!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:29
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - Ouch! Playing the long side of gold has felt like playing a losing game of leap frog with a unicorn.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:25
EWP EWP>(EWP): - This market is getting high .. I think .. I cashed out of the equity market ( stock funds ) end of day yesterday and placed it into wimp funds. That may mean the market goes up another 150 points : ) and I placed a few ( not much though ... I am strong proponet of placing money in wimp funds for awhile ) GTC orders to catch some falling anvils ( mining stocks ) . I put in my looseleaf paper support levels ( can a piece of paper catch a falling anvil without taking off my toes ... I hope so ) .
Have a nice day all ... : ) - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:19
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - RJ @ 1:30 - I got a wee bit mouthy last night :- ) , but to continue, I used to see the greats in the early 70's down at the Colonial Tavern on Yonge St., Toronto. Witnessed numerous up close performances by each of: Muddy Waters, Howlin' Wolf, John Lee Hooker, B.B. King and others. Pure Gold Man! :- ) Oh Yeah, one time my great uncle Mooney paid to have the family tree traced and it was discovered that we were indeed descended from the last Kings of Ireland.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:18
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - What happens when you get speed wobbles on ya bike ?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:11
Scott @theBank>(@theBank): - Swing high, swing low, next... soon, swing very high .... Don't be left short. D'day is approaching fast, the feds know it, just they can only stall for a short time.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:09
Hal @ ER>(@ ER): -
WW--00:39--The best of many outstanding posts last
night. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 09:05
Mike Sheller Off to work...>(Off to work...): - MOONEY: What's a volumptious young lady? And where does one get two of them? RJ: What did I tell you about Bernatz!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 08:48
Speed on vacation>(on vacation): - EBN Gold down 2.05. It's limbo time, how low will we go?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 08:42
Cueball @Golfields takeover>(@Golfields takeover): - Rev Jackson
I have been looking for this event to happen, but have no confirmation that the New Randlord Cyril Ramaphosa and his New Africa Investments have taken over Goldfields. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 08:25
Test @Test>(@Test): -
Test - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:56
Barton Biggs @ Punch in the Nose>(@ Punch in the Nose): -
The G8 is meeting in Denver today. Any thoughts? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:47
Peter Jennings @ ABC>(@ ABC): -
Hong Kong up nearly 5%. This would be equivalent to
a Dow gain of 375 points. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:44
George S. Cole gold prognostications>(gold prognostications): - WW: As usual you are right in target. The financial establishment is VERY WORRIED. With the most overvalued stock market in history, they cannot risk even a modest bounce in the gold price, lest it get out of control and help topple the house of cards. But I do think the spring has been pushed down almost as far as it can go.
The fact that bullion has held up relatively well in the face of an incredible amount of negative publicity is a very good sign. The risk/reward ration in gold and gold equities is as good today as stocks' risk/reward was in 1982 when the Dow was 800. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:44
gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.net>(gunrunnr@bsc.net): - RJ,
Got your post from last nite. Thanks for the help - I need all I can get after yesterday's stop-out...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:40
TED @hongkong>(@hongkong): - WOW!...Hang Seng up 647 ( 4.6% ) gotta go or I'll be in deep do do...
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:35
TED @NOVICE>(@NOVICE): - Novice: Will get somethin off to ya when I finish me chores...give me 5-10 minutes....S+P futures up 2.0....London Gold up .15....BYE!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:33
TED @tort>(@tort): - Tort: It's on the way....EBN Gold down 1.00 and Silver down 2 cents....
Gotta go weed the garden,mow the lawn,wash+wax the car,call Fidelity and see where the hell by bond check is,start packin,call newspaper and stop delivery,ditto Post Office,and make dinner fer our damn neighbors as they invited us over fer dinner?...I'm sure I've forgotten somethin...Toothbrush...TGIF TORT! - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 07:24
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn): - It looks like gold and silver both melting this morning a bit. Here's a story to perk them up a tid. Morning Ted. I await incoming assaults.
There was a Pope who was greatly loved by all of his followers, a man who led with gentleness, faith and wisdom. His passing was grieved by the entire world, Catholic or not. As the Pope approached the gates of heaven, it was Saint Peter who greeted him in a firm embrace.
Welcome your holiness, your dedication and unselfishness in serving your
fellow man during your life has earned you great stature in heaven. You may pass through the gates without delay and are granted free access to all parts of heaven.
You are also granted an open door policy and may at your own discretion meet with any heavenly leader, including the Father without prior appointment.
Is there anything which your holiness desires?
Well, yes, the Pope replied. I have often pondered some of the mysteries which have puzzled and confounded theologians through the ages.
Are there perhaps any transcripts which recorded the actual conversations
between God and the prophets of old? I would love to see what was actually said, with-out the dimming of memories over time.
Saint Peter immediately ushered the Pope to the heavenly library and
explained how to retrieve the various documents. The Pope was thrilled and settled down to review the history of man's relationship with God.
Two years later a scream of anguish pierced the stacks of the library.
Immediately several of the Saints and Angels came running. There they found the Pope pointing to a single word on a parchment, repeating over and over, There's an 'R', there's an 'R' -- it's celibRate!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 06:57
Henry Ford @ Dearborn Michigan>(@ Dearborn Michigan): -
Jack 06:42- Agree that the auto industry is a
parasite to the US in many ways. The fact remains
that the auto industry in Europe is much worse. The
Renault is an expensive piece of junk. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 06:42
Jack Henry>(Henry): -
Henry: I do not buy the slimming down nonsence, basically
it's to a show profit. Like taking large write-offs in
year one, so that years two and three will look good,
mostly because of the lower taxes, generated by the
write-offs. That ain't competition.
If they held those employees, they ( the employees ) would
buy more goods ( hopefully US goods ) .
Americans do not buy US goods because they have been
indoctrinated to some extent, to be the trendy in crowd.
More so it's because we cannot compete due to imposed
conditions. Remember; be the dollar high or low, we
always have a trade deficit.
This is not the fault of labor, but govermental and
industrial policy toward labor. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 06:13
TED @goodmornin>(@goodmornin): - EBN Gold down 1.15 ans Silver down 2 cents...Dollar strong ( thanks Bubba )
Tort: Thanks fer missive yesterday and will be back at ya later today! - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 06:02
Henry Ford @ Dearborn Michigan>(@ Dearborn Michigan): -
Jack-The strong dollar has forced US automakers to
slim down in order to be competitive. The Renault
is a prime example of the EMU automobile. The
Renault, like the EMU, is substandard. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:53
Jack Like to Add>(Like to Add): -
Henry: Forgot to mention, the strong US dollar not only
makes US made auto's less competitive, but it also
effects what most of us believe in. There are other
reasons that effect our beliefs, but I will not write a
book. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:43
Sceptic @ From Missouri>(@ From Missouri): -
This BT forecast is starting to look like Malachi
Martin's prediction of some sort of catastrophe from
the sky. Will this be another failed
prognostication? Stay tuned. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:39
Jack Henry>(Henry): -
Henry: The unemployment rate in Japan is relatively low,
this indicates that their manufactures are careful not to
stiff their own labor.
In other words; while they expand their markets
worldwide, they make sure that the Japanese economy is
not excessively hurt.
True, the Japanese are said to be in big trouble, but I
emphasize the word SAID, years of savings will probably
pull them thru.
This cannot be said for the US. Germany on the otherhand
has savings and a high jobless rate. This indicates that
they are stiffing their people. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:35
Goldbug23 @Ingot>(@Ingot): - 6pak: Your Jun 19 21:54 post on Canadian economic history very interesting. I suspect most U.S. citizens fall in the same Quite,Consume, and Die mold as you think most Canadians fall. Somewhat related perhaps is a fact I remember from a history course: Only one third of the people supported the American Revolution, one third were neutral, and one third were actually Tories. Fits the mold.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:19
Henry Ford @Dearborn, Michigan>(@Dearborn, Michigan): -
US autos are now the cheapest and best quality in
the world. This is due, in part, to Japanese and
German companies setting up production in North
America. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:09
Jack Eldorado>(Eldorado): -
Eldorado: Been away trying to find verification of the
figures given, but couldn't find news artical, maybe
heard in on TV? RJ is a tough customer.
I believe that the 350,000 figure concerned production by
US owned companies, or by just Ford or GM indivigually.
Actually Mexican auto production is much higher and
should come close to 1 million vehicles.
I agree with your answer, but the Big Three shouldn't
coerce US labor, or better yet, DC should stand up for
its citizens. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 05:03
AMNESTY @hepcats loungeroom>(@hepcats loungeroom): - Hello to all! My gold stocks sent a chill down my spine today. Hey thats
life and at least Im totaled in reality and if it werent for Mercury
Falling I'd be sobbing into my lap. B.T. I'm a believer, six always
seems to work for me. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Jack -- If I might also comment on your post. First, think of return-on-investment. It would be most difficult to pay off multi-hundred million dollar plants buy trying to sell to those that have virtually subsistence income. The alternative is to sell to those that do have income. At the same time, start employing those so they too might have a disposable income. You are correct that very little is being done in that particular regard, and unless that does occur, the companys that move there will find very little, if any, overall benefit in having done so. Only short term profits that will be wind up being given back later as less and less market is available. These companys really need to begin emulating Henry Ford: Pay a wage where his workers could afford to buy that which they were making.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:32
EB @ under 40 yrs of age>(@ under 40 yrs of age): - RJ- although I do remember the sixties and the hippies ( and you hilarious comment about drinking BONG water ) I am just a puppy-relatively speaking of course. No NAM in my background...What a GREAT time for music though.
Regarding options trading you are right! I didn't think the numbers were that high-98% but yes most are losers. But, like any game... since I was able to pick up a baseball bat or golf club, I play to win. Winning IS everything. To win you must prepare and practice. Do not enter any arena unless you have done homework, studied, etc. Like leveraging, options trading is a very viable way to make a good or damn good living.
Be prepared! Oh, I was in the boy scouts...
AWAY!
EB - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:24
Jack Mexico>(Mexico): -
RJ: Since Mexico is part of our trading block and by my
estimation; a good group of people; I will not comment
vehemently, but of the 350,000+/- vehicles they produced
in 1996, about 90% were imported by the US. Why can't
their government create conditions, such as to make them
able to buy that production? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:24
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - EB, RJ: On board a carrier over there yes. Ashore, no. Damn, but that was a long time ago! I'm sure it'll come back to me at some wee hour in the middle of the night. Either that, or I will watch Forrest Gump again. In the mean time, don't any of you even dare tell me what it is!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:13
RJ FNG>(FNG): - Let me guess, EB was in 'Nam, Sabot was not.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:13
EB FNG's>(FNG's): - Ask one of the vet's or rent Forrest Gump again.
AWAY!
EB - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:12
Reverend Jackson Black@Interests>(Black@Interests): - To All
I've heard all this stuff that the US media feeds us
about gold bein from notzis and if you like gold that
means that you're an-tie sometic and so on and a war
criminal to boot an it is jes not true.
In fack, Ill tell you whats happenen. Now that Black
African Powah has taken control of Gold Fields South
Africer and JCI, the US want everybody to stop usin
gold jes to hurt the Black people theah.
This whole thing is basicly RACIST - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:11
RJ Earl>(Earl): - You are right, $339 is hardly a brave call. What if I said $330.... no, that would have some in Kitcoville jumping out of windows. Goodnight.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:09
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - EB: I suppose I should be able to interpret FNG's, but for the life of me, I cannot. Perhaps the lateness of the hour. But if you could or would interpolate it for me, I would appreciate it. Is there many of these abbreviations out there that might be good to know? Kind of new to this.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:05
Auric @6 Days and Counting>(@6 Days and Counting): -
Sabot @ 02:58--Good question about BT. I have no
clue if he/they are real. I guess we'll know a week
from now. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 03:00
RJ Jack>(Jack): - Think back to the NAFTA debate and the giant sucking sound from the south. Exports to Mexico a higher than ever, and there is no evidence of job loss. Quite the contrary all these new exports are creating American jobs and feeding American families. I don't believe that one must become wealthy at the expense of another. We can all improve our Lot.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:58
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - EB: Thankyou also for the welcome. I guess my trip to the CD store will not be in vain, should they be out of one or the other. Thankyou for the recommendation!
I suppose I'll have to go back aways to find out what this BT thing is about. Is that a correct supposition? Is it important? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:53
Jack Appreciate the Enthusiasm>(Appreciate the Enthusiasm): -
RJ: I appreciate your belief that prosperous times await
our splendid planet.
But ask: When IBM and Caterpillar, to name just a few
major US companies, cut jobs in the tens, even hundreds
of thousands ( here ) and open simular plants in China and
elsewhere; will it really helps us?
Will these displaced workers be able to buy products to
keep our economy ( or the other economies ) going?
Will they ( our displaced workers ) be able to help pay the
interest on the debt that we owe the rest of the world?
PEACE - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:51
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - RJ -- Thanks! I too believe in the late Friday scenarios where many will not typically hold over the weekend.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:50
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - RJ: Recent history is on your side.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:48
BIG TRADER Thoughts>(Thoughts): -
Get ready. I know you have doubting me. In SIX days
you will know if I speak true. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:47
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Reify: To clarify, I was only expressing the opinion that TA becomes less useful as a market reflects the views of few participants.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:45
EB tothemusicstore>(tothemusicstore): - Sabot-welcome. I am new here also. FNG's if you will.
When you are at the CD store check into the MIGHTY MIGHTY BOSTONES. I just started groovin to them. Good brass, good tunes.
AWAY!
EB
Where is CHEROKEE I need some smoke signals... - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:44
RJ Eldorado>(Eldorado): - OK. Truce. I don't expect for any NY longs to go into gold going into a weekend. Two continents will get to trade on monday B4 they do. $339, tomorrow.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - The world is full of productive and inventive people. Even given the those in society that are not, and this includes governments and 'organizations', civilization has never-the-less been on an upward march towards betterment and an easier life. But given that the current 'major marketplace' in the world abides only because of debt, can this bode well for the well being of these people or those that are so dependent on the 'status quo'? How can it be that such debt does not matter? How can it be that an ever expanding debt does not weigh within any 'future' calculations? Could it be because it is simply paper or that we 'only owe it to ourselves'? Can it go on forever? There is 'something' fundamental here that needs answering!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:40
Auric @Payback Time>(@Payback Time): -
Earl @ 02:23-- The amount of obligation that is
backed by the Full Faith and Credit of the US
Government is in the trillions. They better start
firing up the presses if they wish to honor those
debts, eh? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:40
RJ Bernatz de ventadorm>(Bernatz de ventadorm): - Your posts are like those of a sniper. You wait, you view, and then you shoot, always hitting the mark
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:36
RJ Alas poor Auric>(Alas poor Auric): - Whither gold? Gold may well wither.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - D.A. @01:37: I am sympathetic to your views as well. Govt's will, to the best of their ability, follow exactly the course you have outlined. The only question I have is this: .. Will the wealthy, who are assumed to be astute investors, stand idly by and allow themselves to be raped in such an obvious fashion. It seems to me that many lessons should have been learned as result of the episode of the 70s.
Your stated course of events depends heavily upon these bondholders remaining somnelent or failing that, at least passive. Do you see a reason why they should be either? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:34
RJ D.A.>(D.A.): - Well put regarding leverage. Yes costs can be higher on the longs, but nowhere is there a better way to short. Since any commodity is going sideways or down 80% of the time, the importance of selling short cannot be underestimated. One thing you did not mention, physicals , or leveraged physicals, are not tied to arbitrary expiration or delivery dates. If one would like an example, look no further that first delivery notice of June palladium. The shorts were forced into the spot market to pay whatever was asked to cover. Read my 6-5-97. Holders of leverage or physicals were able to ride that out, even the shorts; there was no calendar breathing down their neck. The similar problem exist with options. The people who write the options, get to keep your money if it expires. They also happen to be the same people who own the metal. 98 times out of 100, they can park it were they want. They count up the puts and calls, and park it where they make the most $. When you buy an option, you are investing with someone whose beat interest is that you lose your money, because they get to keep it. I will never buy a put or a call, I choose to be one of the less than 2 percent who avoid losses in options.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:29
EB @music line>(@music line): - RJ, Mooney, other Blues fans. Check out the new kid - Jonny Lang/ Lie To Me... you will like it. He is only sixteen give or take. The guys got it goin' on! Not to take anything from the great JLH...
AWAY!
EB - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:28
Auric @ The Denouement>(@ The Denouement): -
RJ @ 02:18-- If that optimistic scenario plays out,
whither gold? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:28
Bernatz de ventadorm le fou@sing zee blues>(le fou@sing zee blues): - For Messieurs Mooney and RJ
You may find eet strange zat a troubadour lak
mahself born ovair 1000 years ago should lak zee
blues but ah can assure you zat eet ees true by gar.
Ah lov monsiour jean lee Hookair. Ah lov hees stoRIE of
zee grande floodings een tooplo, mizzippi. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:27
Reify @?>(@?): - Earl-
Are you saying that when cartels, as Bob suggests of CB's control of gold, drive prices one way or another, that TA fails in its value?
Remember what's been said here before about Asia, and China in particular. If CB's are selling someone is buying. And loans, such as those against golds in vaults, also must have a day of reckoning.
The credit game is nothing more than using future generations' wealth today. In days gone by, one would save for a desired article one wanted to purchase and when the money was there the purchase was made. Today one buys with the cute little cards we all posess, and live it up today, and pay tomorrow or the next day. But this has gotten so out of hand that even the CB,s are now looking to find ways to keep alive.
Think of past bank failures, or recently the Savings-loans scandel, this is small potatoes in comparison to the game the big guys are playing.
There's no easy way out, in fact no way out. The piper will be paid, you can bank on it. Pun intended. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:23
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Vieserre: As usual, you are absolutely correct. Govts could not possibly demonetize anything without a total ban on public ownership. Enforced, as always, at the point of a gun. Though done once, I doubt that it's a realistic option for the future. .... Although, future gold ownership is likely to be enjoyed by only the few with vision, so it would be silly to not discount the willful effects of the many upon the few. As in: Who has the votes, eh? The demogogic possibilities become interesting, macabre and endless.
Except for those benighted regions of the world that have yet to discover the interesting possibilities that fiat funny money can offer, gold is not a common medium of everyday exchange. Given however, the possibility of no gold in da bank, even the those who write papers for the fed would begin to realize distinct differences between the two formats. One would be available in abundance. In a colorful array of denominations and all bearing sworn testimony that said piece of paper is backed by the full faith and credit of the issuer. The other would be somewhat in scarcity. Gresham's law.
As others have said, this evening, gold is a reserve behind every fiat currency. It may be beyond monetary redemption but IMO, it still serves as a psychological barrier to the emptiness that awaits its total removal. Unstated and reviled it may be but it serves nontheless. Remove it and paper will lose its value in effect, instantly. On that day, only the foolish will accept a promise over a fact.
Japan is currently be able to sustain its currency on the back of a reflected value. That is the market value of reserves whose value is a reflection of the world's view of those US govt assets. If the world view changes and the value of the assets are diminished in any significant way, the Yen is not likely to maintain its present value either. The same could be said for all currencies whose value is in some way related to US paper as a reserve.
In short, perception is reality and, for the moment, the perception is that US assets are solid and the US govt can be trusted to fulfill its promise of redemption. But what if ........ ?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:20
PAPER futures market>(futures market): - Hmmmmmm....
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:20
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - D.A.: Thanks for the explanation. I believe I see the light, and I don't believe I have that kind of inventory on hand. My hats off to those that do!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:18
RJ D.A>(D.A): - Nay savior, more like incestuous sister. Don't forget the 300 million in eastern Europe and Russia. Oh yeah, the 1.3 billion Chinese, almost forgot them. I have said it B4, Capitalism needs but one thing to work; Markets. We are staring in the face of enormous markets that will be open to us for the fist time. Vast lands with multitudes of consumers living amongst enormous natural resources. Never before in human history has such a prosperous future awaited mankind. Those of you waiting for the collapse, if you won't admit your error in ten years, or twenty, or.... oh well, by that time you will be a footnote. America still has the most productive workers on earth. Nobody can match our technology. Sure, the Japanese can copy it, but the US will lead the world into the 21st century which, if we can keep some nukes from flying, will be the greatest century this world has every seen. I remember seeing hippies in the sixties with signs proclaiming the apocalypse. Well we are still here, our standard of living is higher, and those hippies are either trading their own portfolios, or drinking bong water. Some of the doom I read here is reminiscent.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:17
Jack Charts>(Charts): -
Earl: ( 01:26 ) Always felt that a group of dominant
players could possibly construct a chart patent by
various buy/sell actions and jaw boning; to draw
investors in or out of a particular investment.
To be Politically Incorrect, I believe that governments
may hire, or train some to do so. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:12
D.A. re.leverage>(re.leverage): - Sabot:
RJ is a metals broker so he may be under some house rules as to what he may say on a public forum. I'm not, so here goes.
In short, leverage in the metals markets is not much different than leverage anywhere else in the world. Since the metal you buy can be used as collateral for a loan up to some percentage, you can borrow against what you have already bought so as to purchase some more. I would imagine that the margin requirements are similar to what could be obtained in the futures markets but my guess is that the borrowing rate will be much worse than what is implicitly available through futures. As a trading vehicle I suspect that the futures markets are generally less expensive. If you want a pile of stuff to leave in the vault or the bunker, the physicals are the way to go. One real value to owning the physical, or options on the physical is that you get positive exposure to squeezes and highly backward markets. You can get some of this action by constructing calendar spreads in the futures markets but the tracking is always off.
Hope this helps somewhat. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:10
Johns of the world;or the US>(of the world;or the US): - Mooney... ouch!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:10
JR @Dallas>(@Dallas): -
Sabot, Yes, this Kitco site is addicting. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:04
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - RJ -- Truce if you will. You aren't alone in that! I was expecting these kind of lows last Friday/Monday, and perhaps a bit more. I'm still expecting more. 338 Aug anyway. Could this be a simple correction type bounce up with more down tomorrow? 340 is a rather important number, one which would warrant a bounce off of.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:00
D.A. who's.doing.the.bailing>(who's.doing.the.bailing): - RJ:
I agree with you that the Japanese will not be confrontational with respect to our debt, but to view them as saviors I think is incorrect. Last I looked their balance sheet was in worse condition that ours. In addition their demographics are deteriorating faster than ours in so far as the ratio of aged to young. It may be that we will be called upon to bail them out. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:56
RJ Decorum>(Decorum): - Sabot - I don’t know how other leverage programs work, I only know about the one I use, and I will not discuss it in any public forum, especially in these pages. This is not personal, but there is a credo of keeping the business away from these pages, to which I agree and adhere.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:52
Auric @Bull Durham>(@Bull Durham): -
RJ @ 01:38- Birth pangs. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:49
RJ D.A.>(D.A.): - Your response to the credit bubble is well reasoned. I have not read in these pages however, the reason Japan will continue to finance our debt. What choice do they have? We are their biggest market, they need us alive and healthy. Back in the Eighties, when the Japanese were buying up Pebble Beach and Rockafeller Center, I was a lone voice of approval. I heard calamitous shouts of nationalism, we must protect our country from the foreign invaders. I told all who would listen - not many would - Let them buy it all up. They can't take it home with them. The more Japan has invested in the US the more vested its interest in our staying afloat. We are not the only game in town, but we are the biggest, and without the US, all will fall. As goes America, so goes the world.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:49
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - RJ: I do know what you mean about leverage not being for the squeamish. Actually, I was more curious about how you go about that business in the physical metals markets rather than the paper futures markets. Seems to me there is a major distinction there. Also, you now have me going into the local CD shop and looking up a CD or two! Damnation! PS. Does this site seem slightly addictive to anyone else here?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:38
RJ Sigh>(Sigh): - I know a lot of you have been very disappointed in gold lately. I must now add my woeful cries unto your own......Oh, why did gold go up 1.50 today? I could use a little consoling here....Guys? I will suffer alone.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:37
D.A. burning.the.midnight.phospher>(burning.the.midnight.phospher): - Puetz:
While I am sympathetic to your view on the ultimate hammering that bondholders will take, I think you miss the path as to how it will happen. You state correctly that large credit bubbles ultimately lead to large credit collapses. Whats very different this time is that the credit bubble around the world is a government credit bubble and the government controls both the terms of repayment and stuff ( very short term paper ) which must be repaid. Armed with these tools, governments are unlikely to fold their tents quietly. They will first do just what they have always done when faced with this situation, expand the supply of money, inducing inflation, so as to lower the real value of outstanding debt, and to simultaneously increase their tax take in nominal terms. A look at the worldwide M's shows that this policy is already in place. Todays release of broad money growth in the U.K. was a stunning surge to over 11% YoY. An increase in money growth will continue until such time as the i-word rears its ugly head. In this cycle I believe that this will take place with a considerable lag due to rejiggering of the yardsticks as governments must continue to market their paper. It is not that real inflation will not take place, but just that it will not be reported as such. ( The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a web site with some very instructive working papers as to this regard. In particular there is a piece in response to the Boskin commision's recommendations for lowering the CPI by ~1% per annum. Its long, but well worth the read ) Finally, when the bond buyers wake up and smell the coffee, or the palladium, or the fine art or whatever, the game will near its conclusion. I believe at the very end we will see 'work outs' where the government decress that bondholders will only get say 50% of their coupon rate and that the maturities will be lengthened considerably. This will occur at a time when governments are already running large primary surpluses so that all they really are doing in the debt markets is rolling and refinancing anyway. While it would be true that they would have a hard time borrowing again for many moons, it would also be true that they would have no need. The people who will get screwed the most will be the extremely wealthy who have large amounts of their wealth tied up in government paper believing it to be 'safe'. When WW, or someone of his ilk gets his hands on the steering wheel, the pitch for screwing the rich will sell smoothly and well.
Between now and then the stuff will do best. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:30
RJ Nuthin but the Blues>(Nuthin but the Blues): - Mooney - I didn’t know you were Royalty. I truly envy you. I am a bit of a scholar on the Blues Greats and, even among some of the finest makers of music who ever lived, John Lee stands alone. In Fact I have a couple of CDs entitled Alone, in which its Just JLH and his out of tune beat up steel string guitar. The reason the are so many recordings of JLH solo, is that he broke the rules so thoroughly, nobody could follow him. He was un-accompany-able. He would change keys - sometimes invent his own - pay 12 bars followed by 17 bars followed by 8 more. He is a Master Bluesman. I saw him last August at the Bumpershoot at the Seattle Center. How old is he now? 73, 75? He walked onstage in a black suit and black hat, tipped it ever so gently, sat down on a chair center stage, and did an hour and twenty minutes of music I will never forget. I looked around me at teenagers, who could have been his great grandchildren, caught up in the Blues, and I wondered if they realized how special the moment really was. JLH brings the blues across generations and delivers it unadulterated directly to our hearts, and our own ache with his. A Great Man. Oh yeah, he had a couple babes waiting sidestage. Some things are meant to be.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:26
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Reify: I think the point that Bob was making is similar to one I made several times in Feb. That is: ... Are MANIPULATED markets, especially one such as the present gold market, amenable to TA?
Since TA is a means of divining the future course of market via the actions of MANY participants, it has always seemed to me that TA would fail when a market was expressing the view of only a few dominant players. On the one hand we can gain some insight into the probable actions of the many; on the other we are unable to know the will of only a few. Sounds paradoxical; doesn't it. .... In any case Bob made a good point, that should at least be considered further. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:14
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for WW
Hold it a minute. While I WISH it were true that it would cost
600 per oz to remove the copper alloy in gold jewellery, I dont
believe it. How can that be, WW If it costs only about 300 an
oz to go several miles under ground to get the ore , then mill rocks,
then refine it to 99.9 whatever per cent.
Beyond that, you're doing just fine. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:08
Vieserre Money and Gold>(Money and Gold): - Earl: In response to your last major opus, where do I start, lets start with you. If I had your intellect and gift of expression, I would have made one h..ll of an advocate. Yours and many other comments on the forum are way over my head.
Lets talk about money, since it is close to my wallet. How can governments demonitize gold except by decree prohibiting its use. The public has and continues to use gold as money defined as an exchange medium because of its singular desireable attributes for exchange. It is for this reason that gold is still highly prized and almost all gold that has been mined has been retained. By selling gold, a CB only enhances its value as money by making it more widely distributed. I can go almost anywhere in the world and exchange gold for other value. Therefore, the view of Andy Smith that by a CB selling gold, gold is demonitized has a smell of Bovine Species Pastoral.
And it is in this more important capacity as money that gold will be sought after or abandoned ( including being added to or subtracted from reserves ) in consideration of actual or perceived economic and political conditions and its relative value to other monetary alternatives. I would concur with the French CB, that gold will remain a part of a CB reserve asset base for the foreseeable future.
I have observed graphs of such selling from at least 82 by both developed and undeveloped countries. Moreover, the net selling in 96 and to the extent I can determine in 97 does not even come near the net selling that took place in 92-93 on year over year levels. Yet there was not the hue and cry then as there is today. And I wonder how much of this is attributed to current media attention brought about by the unusual Swiss sale and the views of Andy Smith and Ted Arnold which the media fasten on to as good copy.
Now having said this, I also question the need for every country to have gold as a reserve asset. I understand that Japan has a comparitively very low gold reserve component; yet their currency is very strong. I make no conclusion on this, only an observation for your comment. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:08
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - RJ - I KNEW you were a good guy. John Lee Hooker once sat at my Feet for about an hour at a John Mayall concert at Toronto's U. of T. He, ( of course ) , had a couple of beautiful young babes on either side of him and as these volumptious young ladies were sitting on either side of him, ( and at my Feet ) , my young wife started to get annoyed, ( dare I say possessive, jealous and protective? ) , but can you blame her? We were in the front row, so that is why John Lee, ( when he walked in ) , plopped down in front of me. I could go on but at the risk of turning PB on again like the other day when I told him 1,000 young ( and old ) male Scots were Mooning him. Such is life. Carry on, up to Sudbury!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:02
Charlie Chan treasury building@beijing>(treasury building@beijing): - For Mr BOB
Talked with Mr Moto and read your repry his post.
Now you don talk so fancy Mr BOB. You talk straight
now. So you say US PRINT money to pay us when debt
instument fancy talk come due. Also I assume US also
print interest money too. That velly funny for me Mr
BOB. HaHa.
I can get better deal with Congo bonds - they
pay be much higher rate and buy paper, ink, etc from
same supplier. Also money velly pretty - pictures
birds, animals, nature scenes.
I dont think I won buy your debt MR BOB. Gold
is nicer. I know don pay intelest but what you call
intelest only printed paper - is worth nothing. You
think I crazy man.
Maybe you better not come China Mr BOB. I think you
run big SCAM. First you try sell me opium - now you
try sell me PAPER I got enough Paper already. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 01:00
Reify @taking a shot>(@taking a shot): - Bob,
Saw your many posts of yesterday, haven't fully digested them all, but am prepared to step into the ring with you on a couple of points, and hope this won't be a 10 rounder.
You made the point TA begins with the premise that the market is near perfect, and not party can combine to manage price or quantity. Where did you get such an absurd idea. TA probably means different things to different technicians. I for one have a basic fundamental premise from reading and experience, and a look back in history, that spending to the degree the world has spent, on credit ( borrowed against the future of the future generations ) is a selfish way of living, and eventually will end in disaster. Take your shot.
Further, getting back to TA, is nothing more than studying past data, in various forms, to try to see a picture of what is going on in the markets, and trying in various ways to interpret same. The markets, like people are not perfect, in fact far from it, but in the long run patterns do show that people repeat actions. Like a rythm, or waves on the seas, or a musical composition, the theme is there, and the variations appear, and soon patterns, that can be studied, appear, for those that enjoy interpreting them, or just listening to them, and seeing them.
Masses, herds, are somewhat predictable, I don't need to go into that, we've all seen what dictators do with the masses, and greed and fear can also be observed in mass psychology, so studying data, charts or figures, can be very helpful in predicting the future, with some amount of accuracy. Working as I do with long term TA, is much easier, and doen't take nerves of steel as with the traders, the successful ones, that work at systems on a daily basis. We have a few in our group, and they are a fascinating bunch. One must only realize one's weaknesses, and not try to involve himself with commodities, futures, options etc. unless they know what they're doing. I've tried, more than once, and failed.
Wish I could have the losses back. When I meet that GENIE, maybe that'll be my one wish.
Take a look, Bob, at long term Dow or S&P charts, say this century, and gold as far back as you can find a chart, check out some of the P/Es at the highs and lows, and an interesting bunch of info will appear. Patterns will begin to have more meaning. It ain't perfect, but then what is? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:58
RJ Auric>(Auric): - Actually, I am very fond of bluegrass, folk, or Cajun. I said Cajun, not Zydeko - did I spell that right? Cajun is down in the swamps, spoon bangin, knee slapin' fiddlin' in such fractured French, nobody outside Louisiana can understand a word of it. Thems good tunes..
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:54
Puetz @ timetable>(@ timetable): - Auric: I believe the stock market will fall apart before the end of October -- this year. And when the stock market falls, the financial system starts its decline. Gold should begin its bull market at about the same time as the financial system starts failing -- sometime between July and October.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:52
RJ Auric>(Auric): - AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! : (
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:50
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net): - Sabot - Leverage is not for the squeamish, nor a good idea without some real world knowledge about these markets. Leverage is a sword that cuts two ways. Any further discussion must be away from the Kitco group.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:50
Auric @Foggy Mountain Breakdown>(@Foggy Mountain Breakdown): -
RJ: May I recommend Lester Flatt and Earl Scruggs? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:48
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Ted - I miss John Belushi, and John Candy and John Lennon and John Kennedy too. Nothing we can do about it though. ( As for John Kennedy, I can hear the partisan BS snickering now: but as a non-American I can tell the rest of you that the rest of the world don't give a Flying _ uck about your BS politics, and JFK was the last and ONLY President that the rest of world respected in the last 35 years. How's that for telling it like it is! ) Goodnight Glenn wherever you might be!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:48
WW @New England>(@New England): - Might add to Steve Peutz's comment on above ground supply. Much of that supply is in jewelry where the gold has been mixed with other alloys and is not readily tradeable. According to my sources it would cost upwards od 600 per oz. to get most of the jewelry stash back into tradeable form. So much for the bear refrain that all the gold that has ever been produced ACTUALLY exists as readily available supply. In fact, since most gold is now going into jewelry the investment grade stuff is getting even scarcer in relation to the ever expanding currency markets.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:44
RJ No Clint Black here>(No Clint Black here): - Mooney - Music list for tonight so far: The Doors, Mozart’s Requiem, a little bit of The Barber of Seville, The Cranberries, now, John Lee Hooker. I don’t suppose this mix will go very far in improving my reputation hereabouts, but I have varied tastes. I do draw the line at country though....
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:40
Auric @ Home >(@ Home ): -
Peutz @ 00:29- What is your time frame for this gold
scenario to play itself out? - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:39
WW @New England>(@New England): - EARL All the jawboning by CB/G-7 and Wall ST. over something as infintesimal as gold and as unimportant as they would have us believe answers the ques. They are concerned we are impatient. When you really analyze the things they are saying about gold and their emphasis as though selling raises so much money ( which it doesnt ) the situation is bullish in the extreme. Making a big deal about selling all the CB gold and the price would fall only to 309 and raise a WHOLE 375 billion shows the absurdity of the bearish case. In fact this Fed sponsored study is bullish. It is the derivitive raids by Wall St houses that are keeping things at bay. CB sale talk is the prop. Again if even a scintilla of demand develops its outta here, This is why the jawboners are worried.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:38
RJ Bob @ All>(Bob @ All): - Bob - Your words on gold ring true, and I agree gold will not move substantially until the equities stop taking all the $. I get calls all day long about gold; believe me, the interest is there if only they could believe gold will move. Unfortunately, most will chase the market and buy too high. Alas, nothing changes.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:34
vronsky vronsky@gramercy,ios.com>(vronsky@gramercy,ios.com): - http:///www.gold-eagle.ios.com
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:33
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - RJ: If I might say, in leveraging, that seems like a very intelligent way to go about it. But how does one go about doing that? Am I still floating on a boat by even asking this? I'm not particularly into trading, but I do like to learn methodogy and ways! Never know what might strike ones fancy you know. Knowledge is everything.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:31
Mooney @WW>(@WW): - WW - As I have said a few times in the recent past: - I don't believe how in sync with the majority, ( that's a political term - whoops ) , around here, that you are, when you stick to the main topic!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:29
Puetz (alias Stat-Man) bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - Auric: The total above-ground supply of gold now stands close to 3.766 million ounces. Valued at $340 / ounce, the world supply of gold is only worth $1.28 trillion. In the US, the market-value of all stocks in close to $12 trillion. The market-value of stocks and bonds combined is close to $25 trillion. But this is merely a measure of global supply of gold versus domestic supply of financial paper.
Globally, the supply of all stocks, notes, and bonds is estimated to be in excess of $100 trillion at market value. In other words, the supply of paper to gold is about 100-to-1. In the old, old days, this ratio was closer to 1-to-1. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:28
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW @23:27: Most excellent. You tied all elements, of the recent fed jawboning, together into one neat package. The crap continues to flow and, as yet, the gold players fail to look for the exits. .... Who is more concerned? Us or them?
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:26
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - RJ - I KNEW you were a good guy, but could not for the life of me figure out your main debilatating factor. When, just now, you admitted that you were leaving Kitco for a short while, to listen to the Cranberries, I did not need to know anymore. You poor, tortured, soul. All the best my friend.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:24
WW @NE>(@NE): - WHY WILL GOLD GO UP First, the prevalence of comments like yours is a most supportive indicator and second, read below.
Thank you sir and good night.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:17
Why will gold go up $>($): - Why will gold go up? It is one the worthless commodities in today's world. What the heck is it used for other than jewelry and country's trying to raise cash ( like Belgium ) by minting coins? No offense intended.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:16
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net): - John C @ 11:55 - Wish I could offer some info, But I don't do options. More than 98% expire worthless, that really puts the trade at a disadvantage. I admit though, when an option hits, it hits big. But it seems you have to buy twenty to get one that hits. I don't do futures either, why be tied down to a delivery date? More times than not, you get caught in a squeeze. I work with leveraged physicals. Maybe Glen or D.A can offer some advise on options.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:14
ezau swami@sag.com>(swami@sag.com): - NAILZ: 00.25 Ofcourse you are right. My stock trading was
louzy. But I haven't managed to lose my principal yet. I
have lost, in relation to my net worth, a lot of money
using envelopes, stochastics ( sp? ) convergence/divergence, etc
But after one large zap decided to forget about it and use
my other methods. On the upside, I bought this fancy
computer to handle all the chart stuff. Maybe I just got
tired of it. Anyway, my vision was real and not a joke. I
was trained in psychic phenomenon in 1970 at the Chicago
Physic Center in the 1970s. - Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:05
WW @NE>(@NE): - Auric: re gold mkt. All of the CB gold in the world is worth about 375 billion. The gold mkt has become infintesimal in comparison to the world currency mkts. Consider it a gnat on the buttox of an elephant. The way it is being treated lately it is near the wrong part of the buttox.!
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:03
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - WW @22:57: Imperiled confidence. Absolutely. It's a drum that cannot be beaten too severely or too frequently. From this point forward into a distant future, it will take but one small event, of the right sort, and the game is finished. A truly great foundation for a solid monetary system.
- Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 00:03
RJ Thongs Abound>(Thongs Abound): - EB @ 04:54 - I concur; PGMs to the moon - and soon! No not more poetry, I'll give that a rest for awhile. I guess I am feeling a bit more human. Must be the healthy So-Cal libido. I was sounding a bit like a Demi-God there for awhile. Just wait, I'll get cranked up again.......Wait.....Zombie, by The Cranberries is on the stereo, give me some time, I'm already feeling semi-Demi-Godish..........
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:59
WW @New england>(@New england): - ELDO: THANKS
Auric: You are correct the capitalizartion of all gold stks is less than Coke.
Bob:
Gold mkt is being held down by derivitive sales much as financials have been propelled by derivitive buying ( like the Yen carry trade etc. ) The CB propganda is to squash ANY interest ( it wouldnt take much ) and therefore encourage more producer selling at lower prices. The Wall St boys raid gold on the comex and it looks like their objective is to keep it technically weak by keeping it under it 100 day moving average. But again only a scintilla of capital and the horse is out of the barn. Due to derivitiive sales gold has an explosive upside potential which is the corrollary of the implosion potential caused by deriviative buying in the financial mkts.
Thems da Facts Boys - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:53
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - geff: LOL. An astute observation. Though I hadn't thought about density of prose as a technical indicator.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:50
RJ Took me awhile>(Took me awhile): - Bernatz de Ventadorm - Epiphany! I do see wisdom in your words!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:44
RJ After I logged off>(After I logged off): - Larry @ Jun 19 1997 00:57 - Your explanation is as good as any I have heard. The spring analogy is very apt. It might be awhile before the SPROOOOOOOIIIIINNNNGGG, though.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - WW -- I want to thank you for these postings of yours of late. They've been tremendous!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:42
Auric @Gee Seven>(@Gee Seven): -
WW: Is not the net value of the entire gold market
small in relation to the stock market? In other
words, a bull market in gold does not require large
amounts of money. Comments? - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:37
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Hang Seng up 350.96 ( 2.40% ) .....Good Night all....you too Tarnished!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:36
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - vieserre: Not ever having been aboard a boat that sunk, though I do commiserate the fact that you were, I too have a love for the waters. Having left the Navy from being aboard a carrier for years, I then went to the west coast of Florida and lived aboard a boat. Didn't particularly go anywhere like you did, but it was, and is, a time of life that will forever be emblazoned on my memory. It would be good to be back! Good life to you!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:35
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre): - Vieserre: No, you didn't mention the yawl....After bein here on the ocean fer five years,I don't think I could live away from the water again and am gettin excited about seein Swan's Island on Sunday...from there it's the express to the Adirondacks and ANOTHER Island for two weeks...Witch Island on Big Wolf Lake....Island Odyssey ya might say!...It's late and I'm tryin to get on an earlier schedule for the trip...Good Night, my friend.....too bad about the yawl!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:35
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net): - Gunrunner - you might find my platinum/yen relationship charts interesting. They can be found at the Gold Eagle @: http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis/RJ01.html. There is a pretty good silver chart there also. I made these chart last week, so you can get a pretty good idea of where we are. I do think that you should look at platinum, that ride is not nearly over.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:30
ark saltedcore@ bx.com>(saltedcore@ bx.com): - Anyone notice that the ENCRYPTION STANDARD code has been
broken and the $10,000 prize awarded? - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:28
Sgt. Friday Dragnet.com>(Dragnet.com): -
Hi. It's Friday. Hey, BT? You for real? Ya got SIX
days to prove yourself. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:27
WW @GOLD DEMONETIZATION/THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES>(@GOLD DEMONETIZATION/THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES): - BOB: you mentioned the demonetization of gold by the world Central Banks. Fact is that it has already occured and is yesterdays news. The amount of gold held is infintesimal in comparison to currency float. If this isnt demonetization on its face nothing is. The fact is that the opposite is the truth. THE FACT that gold is inconsequential as a holding and yet CBs jaw bone about selling gold and obssess about it may reflect a worry they may have gone to far. The recent FED sponsored study concluded that if all the CBs sold all their gold it would push gold down to 309 ( supply would dry up due to mine closings ) . WOW a whole ten percent downside but then what? Further they estimated the sales would raise a WHOLE 375 million or about one years interest on US debt. The US share would be a WHOLE 95 billion and the CBs would get an extra 15 billion a year in interest. That these numbers are underwhelming brings one to the ques. of why CBs REALLY talk down gold or for that matter talk about it at all. If you look at the facts the CB gold sales basically have to be over and buying may soon start. However, even if they dumped it all they would raise an insignificant amount of money and lose any propaganda control they now have over market sentiment. SO MUCH TALK OVER SOOO LITTLE MONEY...HMMM
Facts Speak Louder Than Talk!!!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:22
Vieserre A Salty Tale>(A Salty Tale): - TED: I do not recall whether I mentioned this to you, when I was younger I had a yawl which I took off with and sailed for 5 years on open waters, I lost it on submerged reef, and your comments remind me of how much I miss those times.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:17
Auric @Kitco>(@Kitco): -
Sabot @ 23:04- Well stated and well written. I
hope you continue to post. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:15
TED @RJ>(@RJ): - RJ: No problem Bro....Bernie's a left-wing jerk from Brooklyn NY...We locals in Vermont called his ilk flatlanders...one of the reasons I left the state....for another country!...Thanks to the liberal elite runnin Vermont my property taxes there are up to 5,500 bucks a year and I live on a private road with NO services, in rural Vermont...One of the most ridiculously run states in the USA....Bernie+ Ben+Jerrys ice cream hahahaha....IDIOTS!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:14
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Puetz -- Steve, somehow in my own mind I do know that. But you can't fault a guy for continuing to try. Therefore, I'll continue to seek for 'possibilities'.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:14
RJ Bob @ 16:38>(Bob @ 16:38): - I wish I said that. I agree that number mean less than people perceptions of numbers. All human currency has always represented only the IDEA of wealth. Touché.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:09
Puetz @ WW>(@ WW): - WW: Regarding your 22:57 posting. I continue to be impressed with your knowledge of markets, credit, and finance.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:09
Auric @The Polo Grounds>(@The Polo Grounds): -
RJ @ 23:01- Thanks. I would say $600 by 2000. We
are in the same ballpark. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:05
Puetz @ correction>(@ correction): - Should read: The only way to stop a credit-expansion from collapsing is to never let it start in the first place.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:04
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - Auric: Thanks for the welcome. Where I think gold will be in six months is only dependent on where the money goes to in that time span. I'm a fairly simple person, so I will simply try to find a money trail in everything. There are powers that, as others here have stated, contain a situation. Not a good good thing to have to contain, mind you, but do pray that they do continue to do so. In all due regard to gold, and in only my opinion, it could make a fairly decent spike up, but my sights are more on the basis of the 'why'. There are many fine posts here and many fine links to many more to be found here. I see a definite problem beginning to envelop the reserve currency of the world. But what that might suggest for gold prices, being as controlled as it is, is not expedient to forcast upon in my own opinion. I have a certain amount of the physical metals put away, as any person should have, but I count it solely as a form of insurance. I also have a few stocks that have done well over the past couple years but I'm about at the point of liquidating those, at least for a while. I know this posting is probably not what you were hoping for in regards to a gold price, but I hope it does at least help get all of you to know me.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:04
RJ LOL>(LOL): - Ted - I thought something smelled wrong. Thanks for setting THAT strait.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:03
TED @vieserre>(@vieserre): - Hi Vieserre!...Nothin but rain,fog, and cold weather recently but the ocean is still awesome.....many loons and the White-sided Dolphins are back...fog horn sounds in the distance....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:02
Puetz @ defusing the financial crisis>(@ defusing the financial crisis): - Eldorado: In the words of the great Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises: The only way to stop a credit boom from collapsing is to never let it stop in the first place. I have heard every argument under the sun on how to solve our national financial crisis. But what every proposed solution boils do to is this: Rob and extract wealth from xyz group to solve the problem. Must people have a hard time accepting the fact that a problem exists with NO possible solution for it.
I harken back to my childhood days of playing the game: GAS - LIGHT - & WATER. In this game, to win, you must connect each of the three different stations ( G, L, & W ) with a line to each of the X's without crossing any of the lines.
G L W
X X X
It can be mathematically proven that this problem has no possible solution. You can tell people that it's impossible to solve it, yet they will keep trying in vain hope that the mathematics are wrong. Defusing a credit-bubble is similarly hopeless. There is absolutely no way to get rid of a debt-bubble without tremendous economic and financial pain.
Furthermore, the greater the bubble, the greater the subsequent crash, and the greater the economic pain. The only way for anyone to protect themselves in this type of situation is to get your money out of the collapsing credit-system, and move it into gold and silver coins.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:02
geff geff@ziplink.com>(geff@ziplink.com): - RJ--I am currently back testing strict word count as well as space counting as letters too. Preliminary results show negligable differences. Hope that helps.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 23:01
RJ Auric>(Auric): - I am only bearish on gold short term, six months to a year. In the next three to five, I think I can finally express a majority opinion here... Easily $500 + +......
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:57
WW @New England>(@New England): - BOB: your analysis is correct and I think represents the current situation with gold. However, you assume no change ie US dominance and confidence continues. I think this is why we constantly here why the econ is so great and Clinton talks of us being the envy of the world. On the surface this looks true just as the USSR looked good on the surface based on what their leaders said and economic indicators reflected.
Fact is it is the debt of the consumer which will bring on the recession which will break the confidence. Gold is such a small mkt even a scintilla of capital going in will cause it to explode and then the horse is out of the barn. Bob gives the impression that some huge wave of demand would be necessary to run it up. Hey in 1993 all it took was Geo. Soros little ( comparatively ) hedge fund.
Bob's analysis is an accurate reflection of the past, present and the future our financial leaders want us to believe so the capital continues to flow in the right direction. The expansion of credit at all levels along with derivitives is just the type of excessive credit expansion which has always led to depression. When this occurs we will see how the confidence is running.
Bob consider things that may slow growth in Fortress USA they are everywhere. Investor's should view Clinton's chest pounding with alarm. He knows we need foreign capital en masse. If the facts truly spoke for themselves the chest thumping and constant cheerleading would be unnecessary. Those in the know can see CHANGE IS COMING!!
And there you have it!
all the best - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:57
TED @berniedanders>(@berniedanders): - RJ ( 22:47 ) I lived in Vermont for 15 years ( 1977-1992 ) before movin to Cape Breton and BERNIE Sanders is NO democrat....he belongs to the socialist party....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:55
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net): - Polarbear- Paul Sarnoff put out a FAX to sell his two SA stocks
Blyvoors and Driefontein based on pure ignorance. If he was gona put out a sell maybe he should have done it before they hit rock bottom.
I will bet you he did not own one share. I have never seen Bishop say
to sell, he just gives the info and it is up to you to descide what to do. This action by Sarnoff is very poor, nobody wins.
Did we bounce offa $340 again or did we bounce offa $340 again!!
Tally Ho - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:53
RJ I believe>(I believe): - Geff - I am very exited about this new system of yours, I feel a fool for not seeing it before. Just one question.... Do spaces count as letters also? You know, like in typing class? Please, before I bet the farm with this new forecast method, I've got to be sure I understand is completely.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:51
TED @animalhouse>(@animalhouse): - Blutarsky ( 21:38 ) Nice to hear someone else believes in self sufficiency here.....it might come in handy!....oh, by the way, I really miss John Belushi.....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:47
RJ JT Rourke (wealth): Thu Jun 19 1997 18:41>(JT Rourke (wealth): Thu Jun 19 1997 18:41): - JT Rourke - I do admire your for giving the source for the quote by
Congressman Bernard Sanders ( VT ) . Is there a reason you left out the party affiliation? Could he be a Democrat. Has he voted for ever larger government? I have heard similar number before. I have also seen these numbers debunked. I do not believe that the top 1% owns 42% of the country. I think this is nothing but class envy by a big government spender trying to collect more taxes. I know you quoted those numbers, do you believe them? Can you name a time when the standard of living for all Americans has been better? We are the most prosperous country, peopled by the most prosperous citizens that this world has ever seen. I will keep my eye out for some contradiction numbers and, I too, will quote a source. My guy will probably be just as impeachable though. I very rarely believe anything that come out a politicians mouth. I know they all lie, because their lips...... Oh well, you know the rest.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:44
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net): - Good Evening Y'all. For those of you looking for yet another indicator to determine the trend in general equities, I am working on one called the Inger Letter Confusion Index. Essentially, one divides the parentheses per paragraph in each letter and then plot the average on logrithmic graph paper. When the ratio in the current letter is above the 5 letter moving average the general forecast can be called into question, and if the last 5 letter moving average is already above the ten letter moving average then I would be inclined to consider this to be indicative of a full scale BS Reversal where one may be inclined to take the exact opposite course of action ( which may be kind of hard to determine as the reader is likely to be completely confused, which may actually be the intended point )
Anyhow, this is just one more tool for your chest in predicting the stock market. More to follow.... - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:26
Vieserre Nicely Done>(Nicely Done): - EARL: Your 20:13. Well put. Thank you.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:24
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - 6pak: Factored for personal opinion, there was still a lot of good stuff in that post. I enjoyed it and gained some understanding of the past as well. Thanks.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:24
POLARBEAR hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp>(hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp): -
JOHN DISNEY,
( Regarding our ongoing discussion of Japanese desire for platinum )
Sorry for the delay in getting you a good explanation for the Japanese word SHIBUI. Just moved yesterday and it took me hours and hours to find all the pieces to get my computer hooked back up.
One of my better dictionaries defines SHIBUI as subdued, refined, tasteful, as in My teacher is wearing a tasteful tie.
My wife and I discussed SHIBUI, and the first word out of her mouth when I asked what SHIBUI means was dandy.
I then asked her why she thought Japanese like platinum more than gold, and she had some thoughts I hadn't considered before.
1 ) . PLATINUM IS MORE EXPENSIVE THAN GOLD. The Japanese really have a thing for quality, and will routinely buy the most expensive item when shopping, because it's the best.
2 ) . PLATINUM LASTS LONGER. I hadn't really considered this one, but it seems like a very valid point. Although you can substitute white gold for platinum, it isn't nearly as strong and won't hold up as well. In addition, it's nice to know that platinum, and not its weaker cousin, is holding that big rock in place!
3 ) . PLATINUM'S COLOR LOOKS BETTER ON ASIAN SKIN. Some westerners would disagree with this, but this IS a common opinion here in Japan.
4. PLATINUM IS HIGHLY ADVERTISED AS THE METAL OF CHOICE. The Japanese are constantly being exposed to advertising of platinum…TV, magazines, newspapers etc.
Hope this helps. Feel free to fire my way any more questions I can help with.
PS. What's with the price of BLYVOORS? Ouch!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:21
Auric @Searching>(@Searching): -
Sabot: Good evening. Where do you think gold will
go in US Dollars, in the next 6 months? - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 22:11
Sabot sabotslug@aol.com>(sabotslug@aol.com): - First time here. Got recommended here by a brother. Pardon my handle, but I finally gave up trying to find one on AOL that didn't contain a number. Started looking through my Remington catalog and looking at shotgun shells, came across sabot slugs. I said, what the hell and gave it a try. It worked, and thus my handle. A beaut, ain't it? Just call me sabot, OK?
Peeking? cruising? Surfing? I am not particularly knowledgable about the slang, but at least peering back on the daily happenings or posts, I find a marvelous abundance of diverse opinions and factual materials. Even some science type material! Wow. If you all don't mind, perhaps I'll stick around and put together some thoughts of my own to add to all of yours. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:54
6pak Canada @ Basketcase>(Canada @ Basketcase): - BOB June 19 @ 16:38 Your statement Canada worst spendthrift
basketcase amoung G7 This Canadian, considers your reference,
as an example of : figures can lie, and lier's can figure.
Disinformation is effective eh!
Another view point, is offered, and Background overview, of
CANADA, for-your-information. ( FYI ) I hope it makes a difference
in your views. Give consideration, limited Canadian history, is
available to Canadians, unfortunately, a result of design, by others.
In the Second World War, unlike the First, the dominion ( Canada ) tried
to cover a high proportion of outlays from taxation. In 1939 the
federal deficit, on the national accounts basis, was $2 million; in
1944 and 1945 it was $1.9 BILLION. In the course of the war, from the
end of 1938 to the end of 1945, the Dominion raised $15.7 billion from
the sale of securities, and its net debt, after allowing for some
refunding of old loans, rose from $3.6 billion to $17.9 billion.
The Bank of Canada in 1935, could buy Dominion bonds and issue its
own notes. During the war the Bank bought $1.7 billion of Dominion
bonds and issued $0.8 billion of extra currency, *monetizing* barely
6 % of the new Dominion debt. The Canadian public therefore seems to
have bought about $9 billion something like 63 % of the total new Dominion debt, which amounted to $14.3 billion.
To supply itself with money for spending within Canada, the Dominion
government could tax,borrow,or,in the last resort, sell its bonds to
the Bank of Canada. The Ottawa authorities did not want to borrow
in the American Market, and it was far from clear, especially in 1939-40
just how the market would have received a new Canadian loan.
The exchange rate, which had been floating since 1929, was pegged at
90 American cents to the Canadian dollar, plus or minus a small margin
which was meant to cover the Foreign Exchange Control Board's operating
costs. In 1940 Canada ran a very large deficit with the United States.
The situation was saved only because the United Kingdom agreed to
supply Canada with $248 million in GOLD and American dollars.
In April 1941, in the Hyde Park Agreement, The United States committed itself to make substantial purchases of defence-related materials in
Canada; LEND-LEASE American policy was to require the recipients of
LEND-LEASE to divest themselves of all, or substantially all, their
American assets; Canada's dollar problem was her production for Britain
On 29 April 1941 the minister of finance announced that Canada would not allow a shortage of Canadian dollars to impede Britains procurements in
Canada. 1943-5, 85 % of Canada's mutual aid went to the United Kingdom
and all the rest to other sterling area countries.
Bottom water is proverbially said to be muddy water.So it was to prove
in wartime Canada.In 1943-4-5 Britain earned large amounts of Canadian
dollars through the overseas outlay of the Canadian government. In 1942
Canada *gave* a Billion dollars and lent another $700 million. Britain
paid Canadian Army, and billed the Canadian Government.
Canada was between a rock and a hard place, colony of Britain, USofA
War Agreements,Canada had to agree to all conditions to assist Britain.
Canada was subjected to agree to all matters to get the war won.
External Affairs, was under the total control of the USofA forces.
In the summer of 1944, at the International Monetary Conference at
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, which resulted in the International
Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, later known as the World Bank. Canada, agreed to all
matters, or better said, EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, agreed to all matters.
1981-3 recession, was imported into Canada via International Bankers,
the Second World War was the begining, and the end, for made in Canada economic policies. Had the Canadian People known what EXTERNAL AFFAIRS was doing, maybe, Canada would be in more economic control, maybe !
KINDNESS and CONSIDERATION is a WEEKNESS. To be sure, especially in regards to the sacrifices of men and material, and money, as regarding
the national pride, in assisting, and winning, the Second World War.
Could the Canadian people know, then, and now, that other forces, were
at work to direct our country into the hands of International Bankers ?
Canada, had built railroads, canals, highways, telegraph, and settled
a vast and broad land, before 1945, with a small population to boot.
Yes, it can be said Canada in 1997 is an economic basketcase, certainly,
not the cause, and result, of the Canadian people. But, by others.
To post this Canadians remarks, is likely a wasted effort, but, maybe just maybe, someone might be interested, Canadians, it seems, follow
a very simple set of rules, BE QUIET - CONSUME - and - DIE. They do
not want to face reality, thus they drift through life, living and
sustaining, a total illusion.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:49
Ron Bubba>(Bubba): - Ted, Blutarsky: Didn't see Clinton's speech. Can't stand to watch the man. But speaking of his body language: Pure Mussolini.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:47
Eldorado @the system>(@the system): - Puetz -- There is no way that I can know a timing scenario nor how long it might be 'till fait accompli. What I would really like to know is how it might possibly be defused! Any ideas?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:39
Puetz @ The collapse: How quickly? >(@ The collapse: How quickly? ): - Eldorado: That is the only thing I'm not sure. You suggest the whole monetary system could collapse within a few months time. I believe it may stretch out over a few years time. However, I don't dismiss the fact that there's a good possibility that your scenario will be right. Under your scenario, there will be little time to move out of paper, buy gold and silver coins, and then get delivery of them. You'll either have to be in the metals, or be S.O.L.!!!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:38
Blutarsky @Believing In Self Sufficiency>(@Believing In Self Sufficiency): -
TED 21:19--Amen. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:29
Puetz @ Inflation/Deflation Debate>(@ Inflation/Deflation Debate): - Mooney: In a credit-based monetary system, we must distinguish between the par value of a bond or credit-market instrument and the market value of the instrument. In a credit deflation, both new-buyers and existing-holders of the debt instruments loose confidence in the debt, the economy, and the financial system.
They respond by drastically lowering the price of the bonds and other financial paper. Treasury Bonds, which trade at 105 today, may deflate to as low as 30 in a financial collapse. The same is true of mortgage pools, credit-card pools, and other packaged securities. The Dow may fall from the present 7800 to as low as 300.
Right now, the market value of all stocks and bonds in the United States is presently something like $25 trillion. If the markets collapse as I expect, in 3-to-5 years, the market value of these securities may be something like $5 trillion. Par-value will be meaningless to bonds. If people need cash, they must sell at the market.
When investors loose confidence in a system, the market value of the credit instruments of that system collapse in value. If the government tries to issue more debt instruments to cover its expanses, confidence is further shattered, and the market value of existing debt instruments will collapse even further in the hole. At some point in a credit-system, further debt creation becomes self-defeating, and leads to further violent deflation of existing credit instruments.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:25
Eldorado @nailz>(@nailz): - nailz -- Either coast will treat you right. Therefore Enjoy twice!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:24
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Bob - Although I don't disagree with your theory that China may one day become THE leading economic force in the world, ( although I do think that this may be a lot further down the road than some here envisage ) , I still don't totally agree with your previous statement that the US population ( melting pot ) and its work ethic had conquered European economic dominace in the 20th century. - conquered as in: To gain by force; to vanquish: to subjugate. We disagree - don't worry about it. C'est la Vie!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:22
nailz IN FOR A QUICK ONE>(IN FOR A QUICK ONE): - ALL... Leaving early am for a few days on the Atlantic coast of Florida and then trek over to the Gulf of Mexico for a few....Will have at least some of the time with internet access.....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:19
TED @Blutarsky>(@Blutarsky): - Blutarsky: I agree,it was a total slap in the face and did you see his body language while he spoke...digusting!...That is what the ugly American image is all about...Again,makes me proud to have spent Clinton's entire reign outside the USA....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:13
Loser @thescene>(@thescene): - BLA BLA BLA BLA BLA
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:11
Blutarsky @Delta House>(@Delta House): -
TED 20:38. Agreed he is an a**ho**. But still, that
was a slap in the face to the other G7 members.
Sounds like he is gloating. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:11
WW @New EnglandCLINTON AMERICA ENVY OF WORLD@J. GOEBBELS.COM>(@New EnglandCLINTON AMERICA ENVY OF WORLD@J. GOEBBELS.COM): - America is falling in std of living now, as early mentioned, down to 13th. Wealth differential increasing. As J. Goebbels said the bigger the lie the more likely it will believed. Congrats to our own study of history!!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:08
Puetz @ Systemic Risk>(@ Systemic Risk): - BW: I think you're right. Systemic risk is the soon-to-be catch-word. Systemic risk is what leading organizations have labeled the threat of a complete breakdown of our financial system. I call it a Total Collapse -- the name of my new book.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:06
EB @the wedge>(@the wedge): - That's the wedge...isn't she a MOTHER?!!?
AWAY!
EB - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 21:02
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Mike - If you're holding enough Gold yu'll like it even better when you hear the famous refrain, Louis,Louis, Louiieiii!
All- In addition to Earl's considered reasonings, the reason that our bubble must fall of its own weight is that for over 25 years now over 70% of the North American working population has not been pulling their weight, but living off the fat of the land. This too shall pass. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:59
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Mooney: Your earlier post injected an element of crass commercialism into this august gathering. Fortunately, through no conscious effort on your part ( :- ) ) ..... it was also redeemed by pointing out that markets often do rise from a long term bottom. I therefore assume that your real estate comments were no more than a parable related to the gold market. .... The foregoing was done with no conscious effort on my part. ( :- ) ) ... BTW, I've long considered 'one liners' to be my exclusive province. It's irritating to be one upped. Especially with the 'historian line'. That was a good one.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:56
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Guess something within the ether-system can only handle so many words. Here's the rest:
It comes to the ultimate point of containment and then lets go into the most massive explosion/'deflation' that we currently know of ( totally worthless paper ) ! Time span for all this from point of initial collapse? From days to months. Let me simply ask how much 'gravity/containment' the governments can provide! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:55
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Anybody know how a supernova happens? Let's examine it in relevance to how a credit collapse can occur. A normal star, through fusion, turns hydrogen into helium ( credit ) . After a very long time, but depending on the stars size, the hydrogen eventually begins to be used up ( an ever rising bancruptcy ensues ) . Since the stars size was dependent on exothermic release, the star then goes into a collapsing stage which drives the temperature higher ( more and more cheaper credit being required ) . At a critical point, helium begins fusion into heavier elements ( massive inputs of 'money/credit/'inflation'' into the system ) . Now the distinction between nova and supernova, mainly dependent on the stars mass/size. A smaller star at this point generates enough heat at this time where it might only blow off an outer shell of itself and then eventually turn into shell of its former self. ( We know of a few countries like this ) . A supernova though goes through a much more 'glamorous' destruction. As it falls in upon itself, the heavy metals are born, even unto uranium, eventually reaching a point in heat and compression ( the maximum of paper that the system can absorb ) that gravity cannot contain its explosive nature. It comes to the ultimate point of containment and then lets go into the mo
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:53
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Anybody know how a supernova happens? Let's examine it in relevance to how a credit collapse can occur. A normal star, through fusion, turns hydrogen into helium ( credit ) . After a very long time, but depending on the stars size, the hydrogen eventually begins to be used up ( an ever rising bancruptcy ensues ) . Since the stars size was dependent on exothermic release, the star then goes into a collapsing stage which drives the temperature higher ( more and more cheaper credit being required ) . At a critical point, helium begins fusion into heavier elements ( massive inputs of 'money/credit/'inflation'' into the system ) . Now the distinction between nova and supernova, mainly dependent on the stars mass/size. A smaller star at this point generates enough heat at this time where it might only blow off an outer shell of itself and then eventually turn into shell of its former self. ( We know of a few countries like this ) . A supernova though goes through a much more 'glamorous' destruction. As it falls in upon itself, the heavy metals are born, even unto uranium, eventually reaching a point in heat and compression ( the maximum of paper that the system can absorb ) that gravity cannot contain its explosive nature. It comes to the ultimate point of containment and then lets go into the mo
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:52
Mooney @Mr. Puetz>(@Mr. Puetz): - Steve - Really and truly , I don't get it. If we have a massive deflation . how does the U.S. redeem all those Treasury Bonds OR pay the interest on them, to prevent them being called?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Earl, Larryn -- Re: Bob; Well said!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:41
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Mike Sheller: Anticipation of timing and the process of its prediction is only fun if the event, ultimately, takes place in our lifetime. Short of that, being beaten with a stick is preferable. IMO. ..... ( :- ) )
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:38
TED @Blutarsky>(@Blutarsky): - Blutarsky ( 20:21 ) What did ya expect! ...Clinton is an ASS-HOLE!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:36
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - JT Rourke: That piece was widely known in the late 70s before it even happened. That is, the middle class would be savaged in the years ahead, if we continued to live beyond our means. We did and continue to and it happened, just as predicted. .... Since you offered no additional comment to go with the quote; what was your point?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:35
TED @PUETZ>(@PUETZ): - EBN Gold down .70 and Silver down 1 cent...Puetz ( 19:27 ) My oceanfront house+property ain't made of paper...They's real Bro....and the dough came from that damn STOCK MARKET...Am stockin-up on books for my 3 week internet fast and bought The Sovereign Individual by Davidson+Rees-Mogg
today..... - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:31
Mike Sheller Show me the commodity>(Show me the commodity): - EARL: Are the foreign holders of US debt surrogate citizens or partners of our puppet masters, with the same agenda? I think you answer that when you go on to say paper is an agent of the state. So true. I agree with you that ultimately, true commodity money must win out. The timing part is where the fun comes in.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:31
Larryn larryn@ix.netcom.com>(larryn@ix.netcom.com): - BOB.. I've enjoyed your viewpoint, but must mention some points I think you have overlooked.
The dollar debt will continue to be honored as long as debt holders have faith in the continued good honor ( and existence ) of the US. That is not a given.
1 ) Although the US economy is cruising, it is dependent upon the low interest rates we are enjoying because someone else is willing to buy our debt at low rates. About half of our debt come due within 2 years or less and an international attitude change would have an immediate effect on US interest rates at the next bond auction. This is a well organized policy of Clinton/Rubin to lower budget deficits by lowering interest payments. It is a political move to make him look good ( it has ) but is like buying a second mortgage on your house when you are barely making the first payment. If for any reason there is a doubt about the US making payments, someone may foreclose, one T-bill at a time. Interest rates will go up and the rush to something else will certainly raise the price of gold.
2 ) Our trade deficit adds to the supply of debt someone has to finance. Current political policies of both parties, and solid policy of Clinton/Rubin is to have open trade with anyone who wants to sell. Our trade deficit is still expanding because we are not willing to control our consumerism of cheap foreign products.
3 ) Rough calculations on $5.3 Tril debt at 5% is about $265 bil. As more and more dollars are cycled overseas to foreigners, less and less of the interest payments come back to the treasury as tax. This accelerates the current accounts deficit.
4 ) With our decreasing military budget, we are now at a relative lower position than that of the US on Pearl Harbor day. Our military size is much less than during the Gulf War, and is a major policy of Clinton to reduce the deficit. Once again he looks good.
5 ) We do not have to lose a war; but any doubt of our victory would certainly induce a flight from the dollar. I cannot predict the severity of that flight but it would be substantial. Can you spell Korea, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bosnia, or Taiwan?
We are living on the edge and the American public has no idea. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:23
Mike Sheller By the Light...>(By the Light...): - MOONEY: Loved your Will Rogers Quote!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:22
Mike Sheller Catchup Ketchup>(Catchup Ketchup): - POORBOYS: I am watching the transiting Uranus Squaring New York Stock Exchsange Venus ( 5 degrees Taurus ) . I have found that degree to historically respond to gold price movements. As far as August 27th, the retrograding Uranus comes back to 5.37 Aquarius, squaring NYSE Venus head-on, & probably putting gold down again, hard. BOB: The Yuan WILL become convertible - Thanks to Chinese gold bullion. It MUST happen. My kid lives in PRC, and I keep telling him & his wife to buy gold, but you can't tell these kids anything! EB: I see the declining wedge! Upside breakout from it is 346.50 basis August. Are we talkin' 'bout the same wedge? STRAD MASTER: You flatter me, but I would not call myself a master astrologer. As far as markets and predictions go, I merely ply my no-brainers and hope I'm right. As far as theoretical and philosophical aspects of astrology, I am in constant awe.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:21
Citizen Blutarsky @Senate Pension City>(@Senate Pension City): -
You guys hear Clinton at the G7 meeting? America
is the envy of the world. Wow! That is going to
rub a lot of them foreigners the wrong way! What
the heck is that all about? - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:19
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Bob: One quick addendum: .... A STABLE store of value is too important to leave in the hands of the state and its agents.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:18
Roebear @oops>(@oops): - held=closed
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:17
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey): - George S Cole: Your esteemed opinion is desired ( and missed,been12hrs! ) . After a couple days of unBEARable news, XAU held at 100.60, bullion up and silver up since yesterday. Your take on the market action today...tomorrow?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:13
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com): - Bob: Your argument is forceful. The earlier post concerning mediums of exchange was excellent. Your view of the future is also well thought out but it seems to me that it is also predicated on assumptions that are not well founded or well supported by the past.
The, precise, medium of exchange, as you pointed out, can vary in both place and time, according to the needs and resources of the society. That isolated societies of the past were able to develop means of exchange that were acceptable within the confines of their time and place but failed in cross cultural exchange for a lack of broader acceptance, is also a given.
I interpret your subsequent line of thought to be as follows: That the post WWII economic history is a reflection of increasing integration of the world's means of production and because the US has been the clear leader of that period, with a currency that has enjoyed worldwide acceptance for the whole of this century, it therefore naturally follows that it should continue to enjoy said status in perpetuity.
I would view it differently: Should the outward expression of our fiscal and monetary profligacy now become, forever and ever, the accepted standard of exchange for the entire world? Will our continuing and overriding desire to better ourselves at the expense of our neighbors find acceptance in the greater world?
Your point relating the stability of a debt base as a function of willing purchasers of that debt is well made. To the extent that willing foreigners are active buyers of US debt they are, in a sense, surrogate citizens. And the expansion of US debt is able to continue unabated. I would assume that these buyers follow the same logical thread as any investor. They view their universe of options, now wider than ever before, and select accordingly. That they should choose to purchase US debt is a reflection of conditions surrounding similar instruments from alternate sources as much as conditions in the US but they have no guarantees, from the US govt or anyone else, that today's investment parameters will be equally valid tomorrow. Nor do they have any assurance that, on the morrow, an alternate source will not be more attractive than the US is today. The international exchange system will remain what it is today; a fluid system of relative values which must monitored on continuing basis, in order to avoid being savaged.
In short, the search for a universally accepted means of exchange to serve a universal ecomomy that includes the credit/currency paradigm, would still be referential in nature. It's value would be determined the actions of mortals acting in ways that have often have little to do with, or regard for monetary matters. The average legislator from Little Falls or Burgher from Bavaria, often has little regard for the universal effect of his actions. And therein lies the rub. If said, lofty legislator, can stick it to a matron in Madrid in order to better serve his constituents and remain in power, that is the way it shall be and relative currency values be damned.
Given the political and cultural disharmonies of the world, no medium of exchange will long succeed, IF it has any ties to a particular culture or political agency. It can only succeeed, IMO, if it is neutral and beyond the control of states and their agents. Paper is and will always be an agent of the state. Whether the ultimate medium of exchange is gold, platinum, oil or something so far unnoticed, it must in the end be something that is forever beyond the control of other men acting in concert with force of law.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:02
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Gunrunner -- I don't know if anyone has E-mailed you a response, but I'll post here in truth that I really think RJ might have some good numbers and contracts that you might mull over!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 20:00
Auric @Home>(@Home): -
Anyone remember how gold did in the winter of '85?
As I recall it went down to about $285. At the
depth of pessimism then, it proceeded to launch into
a bull market which topped out in '87 near $500. In
inflation adjusted dollars, gold is cheaper now than
in early '85. Buy low, sell high. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:57
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Steve - massive, MASSIVE!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:57
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - J.T. Rourke -- Kind of makes one wonder who's going to be paying all that interest on that ever rising pile of debt that the worlds financial system is resting upon, doesn't it!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:55
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Steve - What about the amssive inflation of paper? What happens with it in the deflation?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:55
Roebear @atimetobuyandatimetosell>(@atimetobuyandatimetosell): - bw: Excuse me for being slow, but a time to sell what?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:49
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Strad Master - Now that you have a knowledge of Straddles, ( due in good part to Kitcoites questioning you about your Handle ) , I note that you are actually incorporating the language into your posts! AAR, ( At Any Rate, for those that are wondering ) , your recent comment,Unlike some, I have no problem with you posting astrologically obtained market predictions - especially if they're right., reminds me of the famous quote, Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. --------Will Rogers
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:38
Strad Master We're not that far apart.>(We're not that far apart.): - MIKE SHELLER: Thanks for your response. I see no reason for you to have to defend astrology. If you recall, I was drawn into the original discussion to ( in a sense ) defend you and astrology by sharing a theory I formulated that might help bridge the gap between those who fervently believe and those who find it all to be rubbish. I see no reason why there isn't room for both sides to co-exist more peacably. Personally, I straddle the fence as I've found astrology and related endeavours to be alternately helpful and damaging. I can only say that I continue to be a skeptic/agnostic but at the same time wish fervently that such things as astrology be shown to be true. As a Pisces, that's probably part of my nature. Obvioulsy, it takes a master to discover and exploit the full potential that exists in any discipline. As to your mastery of astrology, I have no doubt. Unlike some, I have no problem with you posting astrologically obtained market predictions - especially if they're right.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:38
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Glenn - You know I respect your comments big time, but in this case, I must say, that I disagree. Brokers, ( and traders ) , by which you are now surrounded, always have that philosophy - to always trade the active month. Perhaps in a majority of instances this is the correct thing to do , however, I don't think that you can point blank say that, In all cases you should buy the active month. We could discuss this all night but if you read my comment a couple of times over I think that, in all honesty, you will agree that I have a valid point.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:35
EB @comingtoahead>(@comingtoahead): - In a real world I'd say YES there is one heck of a MOTHER of a declining wedge on those there charts...sending long signals LOUD AND CLEAR. ( doesn't anybody see it ) .
But these aren't real times...are they? Go BT!
AWAY!
EB - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:34
Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com): - D.A.: Why deflation? Our present monetary system is credit-based -- not currency-based. In the broad sense, inflation means credit-expansion. Deflation implies the opposite -- credit contraction or liquidation. The only severe inflation in recent years has been concentrated in the financial markets -- speculators have been borrowing credit mostly to leveraged their positions in stocks and bonds.
Deflation occurrs when debtors either:
1 ) Voluntarily pay off their debts, or
2 ) Involuntarily do so through bankruptcy or default.
Presently, the rising bankruptcy rate is causing enough deflationary pressures to send the prices of goods and services lower. The only poctect of inflation remains in stocks and bonds.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:28
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Bob @18:22 ( and Roebear ) ANYTHING is possible, however, the U.S. has not increased its Gold Reserve ( as far as I know AAR ) since the late 60's ( disasterous management ) . In the meanwhile its population has increased substantially and its debt has increased exponentially. France was the ONE country that almost single-handedly forced th U.S. off the Gold Standard in the early 70's by insisting on Gold for U.S. dollars in the late 60's and early 70's. The U.S. did not want to give away all its Gold and so abandoned the Gold Standard. However, they have not increased their hoard at all in the interim and so lies the problem. France, in the meanwhile, seems to be one of the European countries that still remembers the value of Gold. We are discussing possibilities here for the last year or so, but I can't help but agree with most here that things will soon heat up ( we are now in the calm before the storm stage ) and that soon we ( and the world ) will be reading new meaning into Bob's song The Time's They Are A 'Changing.
Neffer - I had already noticed my colon/semicolon error and discussed same with the Prognosticator ( 1 ) and was going to correct the error, but you beat me to it. Thanks for caring and correcting. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:27
Puetz @ wealth>(@ wealth): - J.T. Rourke: You give good facts on wealth, but I'm not sure what your point is. Are you implying that the concentration of wealth is somehow causing other US citizens to suffer financially? I might add, most of the recent wealth gains are mearly paper-gains from the booming stock market -- i.e. Gates @ Microsoft, Buffet @ Berkshire-Hathaway. A stock market crash, which is coming, will re-adjust their wealth.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:19
vronsky INGER LETTER FORECAST - JUNE 19, 1997>(INGER LETTER FORECAST - JUNE 19, 1997): - Venerable veteran market maven shares his keen insights on markets & Bill Gates losing a billion dollars in ONE DAY - OUCH!. ALL at Gold Digest page:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:01
Long Time Lurker @>(@): -
bw: It seems that things may be coming to a head.
Perhaps BT is for real after all. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 19:01
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG): - EB ( 13:44 ) Re: Dec calls with $5 increments. I'll check into it.
BW ( 17:37 ) Re: Dec Silver. - Don't bother trading Dec silver futures contracts. You can trade Dec Calls and puts, that's ok. The volume and liquidity is not that great and you will no doupt buy and sell before the Sept contact expires. As far as quotes on dec Silver the silver ring will always have a Bid and Ask for you. In Gold the spread for the active month, Aug is $0.10 to $0.20 ( ie - .10 bid / at .20 ) where the spread for the Dec contract is $0.40 ( ie. - .10 bid / at .50 ) In all cases you should buy the active month. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:57
bw Time to sell?>(Time to sell?): - The following six events have taken place over the last few months I wonder if they are related.
o Greenspan warns of world-wide systemic risk in almost every speech.
o IMF warns of world-wide systemic risk.
o BIS warns of world-wide systemic risk.
o Elite of the world meet in private.
o G-7 is studying world-wide systemic risk now.
o Central banks threaten to sell all their gold.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:55
Spud Master Tesla, a true genius>(Tesla, a true genius): - Yes, shame on me. Nikola Tesla.
Spud - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:50
Ron in sack-o-tomatoes>(in sack-o-tomatoes): - Bob A: See Yardeni's page at http://www.yardeni.com. Great charts.
Bob: What do you see as the consequences -- or risks -- of having *any currency* serve as the world's defacto reserve of value? In other words, what reserve of value will remain if the dollar runs into trouble and the CBs have sold off all their gold? When and if that day comes, the world won't necessarily have another currency available that'll be able to fill the dollar's shoes. It seems to me that we are moving toward a world where the very concept of reserve of value itself is declared obsolete and unnecessary. I'm just old fashioned, I guess. Incidentally, I enjoy your posts immensely. They are well-reasoned and a not-so-easily-ignored thorn in any goldbug's thorax. Ouch!
LSteve: Very difficult to hide inflation from consumers . . . I don't claim it's a hole in your theory -- just one that requires explanation. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:49
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Polarbear -@ June 18 @ 4:02 - Congrats regarding - I recently
married a cute little Japanese goldbug! - BUT REALLY! - I thought there was some kind of laws in the U.S. aimed at making sure no one could commit sacrilege by marrying a bug!
Also like to mention that it is not only Asians that have thought of gold and Silver as money fo the last 4,000 years but Europeans as well.
Mike Sheller @ June 18 @ 7:08 - Your thoughts at this time were not completed . This post needs to be expanded on. - Mooney, teacher AND student!
Vieserre @June 18 @ 7:19 - A KEEPER!
Front - Louis says - the chart sucks! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:43
Jack The Kat's of Nine Tails.>(The Kat's of Nine Tails.): -
Wonder what will come out of Denver this weekend?
Actually the G-7 is soon to become The Summit of Eight,
as Russia will soon become a member.
China with Hong Kong's riches should also become a member
shortly.
I propose a new handle for the esteemed group The Kat's
of Nine Tails.
It can be used to whip their respective citizenries into
shape.
The question is: Will they have nine lives? - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:41
JT Rourke wealth>(wealth): - Steve Puetz -
The richest 1 percent of the population owns 42 percent of the wealth, more than the bottom 90 percent. In 1976, the wealthiest 1 percent owned 19
percent of the wealth. So we've seen the upper 1 percent more than double the percentage of the wealth in this country that they own.... Between 1983
and 1989, 62 percent of the increased wealth in this country went to the richest 1 percent.... the middle class continues to shrink.... during the past
twenty years, we have seen a decline in wages or stagnation for 80 percent of all American families, while the people on top have never had it so good.
Twenty years ago, American workers were the best-compensated in the world. Today, we rank thirteenth in the world.
- Congressman Bernard Sanders ( VT ) - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:30
vronsky GOLD STOCKS CHEAPEST IN ALMOST 25 YEARS!>(GOLD STOCKS CHEAPEST IN ALMOST 25 YEARS!): - Well-reputed Seer asserts gold stocks are as cheap TODAY relative to the market as they were in the early 1970s. See Cole’s Market Insights - Click RELOAD:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:28
Vieserre An Overtone Question>(An Overtone Question): - BOB: Again, well-stated. As you implied a considered response to the harmonics of my question, more undertone than substance, is a complex opus with complex flats and sharps making up the fundamental overtone.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:27
GFD Unbearable>(Unbearable): - Bob, Roebear: I have wondered about this too. However, it may be simply that any sales would have to be cleared through congress and the political climate is not favorable yet. They may be waiting until everyone else sells of their gold and then approaches congress. Someone posted here that congress passed a law prohibiting sale of gold reserves.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:23
GFD Correction>(Correction): - Telsa = Tesla. I forgot to mention that I suspect that White Horse was one of the programs that Mr Corso was indirectly refering to... On a separate note Los Alamos recently announced that they had discovered a technique to create an intense self focusing laser beam that could burn through clouds. This is different than adaptive optics but rather depends on a newly discovered phenomena based on power intensity ( using a beam compressed into very short pulses ) . Sounds like quite the breakthrough although they had not yet seen if it scales up to weapons grade power. Immediate applications would be for things like all weather lidar, etc.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:22
Bob @ Roebear...certainly possible>(@ Roebear...certainly possible): - You describe a Gold Trap where everyone sells their gold except the US and then the US revalues its gold to market and effectively reverts to a gold standard to defend the US Dollar against any possible foreign competitor: Yaun, YEN, or ECU.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:14
Roebear @justsuppose>(@justsuppose): - BOB, NJ and All: Just suppose the selling of gold by European CB's is encouraged ( along with their desperate desire for euro and their desperate budgets ) by US even to the extent of a study saying, Well maybe we will too!. So Europe sells some, revalues some, and whoops, gee we forgot to sell, revalue any of ours. If there will be an Euro, wouldn't this little sleight of hand help keep the US$ as the reserve currency of the world? The Euro and the Yuan will be attempting to compete with, if not overthrow, the reserve currency status of the US dollar. The competition between these trading blocks, Asia, US and Europe is what it is about in the future. We have an advantage in our reserve currency status the other two would like. This may also explain some of the inordinate pressure on gold prices. I'm no seer so commments are welcome.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:14
GFD >(): - Spud Master: Actually, particle beams also go back to Mr. Telsa and 1906 as well - a fact mentioned by Mr Corso in his book. Apparently Telsa's death ray was some form of particle beam. But I don't understand your point. Are you saying that because the Brits had radar in the 30's that they can't be used as weapons?
Rightly or wrongly what Mr Corso is saying is that particle beams and high energy radar affect their propulsion and navigation technology in a bad way. The craft he is familar with use standing magnetic waves to create gravity distortions. They basically loose power when zapped the right way, or so he says.
Do not assume that just because a civilization is advanced that it is not arrogant or quick to adapt to changes. They may not believe that the nitwits on earth would have something that could pose a threat to them. It would not be the first time it happened - particularly on earth! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:12
Bob @....Vieserre (Thanks)>(@....Vieserre (Thanks)): - I read your complex question but must admit that I could not distill or calculate the divergent rythmns and harmonic overtones presented to score and adequate response in short order.
It seems that your question focus is too granular - too fine - and, as such, the answer would be subject to many degrees of statistical ( freedom ) variances to render a speculative result not worth grinding out.
I figuered that the big basic long-term picture is my province while the short-term ( short-sighted ) micro-dynamic view is best left for others with greater depth and insight.
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:08
Spud Master Errata>(Errata): - Correction: Chair Heritage was an E-beam weapon - USN - 'sposed to throw bolts of lightening. White Horse was indeed a neutral hydrogen beam accelerator, formerly known as Sipapu ( some one versed in Hopi/Navaho mythology feel free to correct the spelling ) .
ps - Arden - you out there? What's going on in the Comex wharehouses?
thanks,
Spud - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 18:01
Big Chief Gold Bull Spelling error>(Spelling error): -
How: Me spellum my name wrongum, US schollum no goodum. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:59
Auric @The Casino>(@The Casino): -
RJ: In a moment of irrational exuberance, I almost
took you up on $335 a half dozen times. Glad I
didn't now! Just curious, what are your thoughts on
how high gold will go in the next three to five
years? Thanks. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:46
Spud Master Not even close.>(Not even close.): - GFD: Unfortunately, particle-beam technology pre-dates the Roswell crash ( circa 1946 ) by many years,i.e. Lawrence's cyclotron accellerator circa 1936. The French and British also had their own variations of particle accelerators. Granted, these were then used for atomic research, but it doesn't take many smarts to figure out their weapon potential. By the way, such charged particle weapons are useless in space as the beams both spread from coulombic forces, and wriggle like hell from interaction with the Earth's magnetic field. For exoatmospheric beam weapon you must use a neutral partical beam - ala White Horse or Chair Heritage. This too is no great revelation, although packaging & powering is a problem. As for high-powered microwaves, well, this predates Roswell crash EVEN further back in time - Nikola Tesla circa 1900s, or if you need something closer, the British Home Chain radars of 1930s. Nope. If'n aliens crashed with technology - it'd likely knock our socks off.
Spud - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:42
Bob @ Mooney...forest for the trees>(@ Mooney...forest for the trees): - A subordinate clause that has little significance to my thesis need not be researched and proven beyond doubt. Take it or leave it. You missed the forest by concentrating on a one nominal tree.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:39
Neffer Century 22>(Century 22): - Mooney: Actually you used the colon ( : ) . Your semi-colon ( ; ) needs more work.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:37
bw Liquidy>(Liquidy): - Glenn: Something strange appears to be happening at the comex. The other day I called my broker and asked for a quote on dec silver. The market had been open over an hour and he said there had been no trades yet. Dec silver has been hard to buy. I notice there are only four months trading in silver! Only four months! A couple years ago there were twelve. About a year ago there were eight. The way we are going, soon there will be but one month perhaps, spot. Where are all the producers scalping their hedges? Looks like the same thing is happening in gold. Can you shed some light on this? If I did not know better I might think someone is afraid of the future.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:35
Jack Revision (update especially after 1980)>(Revision (update especially after 1980)): -
I think that Mr Greenspan made a BOO BOO?
What his famous words should have been; are:
The abandoment of the gold standard mnade it possible for
[banking system] to use the welfare statists ( corrupt
government officials ) to nominate the taxpayer to pay for
the unlimited expansion of credit. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:33
Bob @ Mr. Moto and Jack...the easy one first>(@ Mr. Moto and Jack...the easy one first): - Mr. Moto: Where do they get the money to pay for the bonds ? The govt
buys paper and ink and prints a nice design that looks exactly like US Dollars ( signature, pictures, serial number, security ink, etc. ) . This paper is exchanged for the paper and ink design of the US govt debt held by the investor. Simple. Beautiful. It works all the time !
Jack: I am no jewellry expert. I never assayed or weighed my gold jewelry and I don't think many outside of India/SE Asia are overly concerned about the authenticity of the gold content stamped inside rings or on the back of gold ornaments. Often the gold content is suplanted by more expnsive gems or diamond on the piece so it is secondary in value to ( say ) the diamond or gem or ( indeed ) the art craftmanship itself.
Jewellry prices are inelastic. If gold goes up jewellers reduce the gold content or raise prices for new product based on average cost and price goods accordingly. ( Remember, there are gold trading factors to consider in the cost of jewellry: gold futures buying and selling programs tend to stabalise manufacturers costs over time so current jewellry prices may or may not reflect current gold prices. )
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:31
Vieserre Gold as a Portfolio Diversifier>(Gold as a Portfolio Diversifier): - BOB: Well-stated. My hat is off to you.
In an economic analysis, gold's price, as you are more aware than I, is determined by a number of factors including: mine production, fabrication demand, and recovery scrap. Much greater influence is exerted by trends in central bank sales. But most important of all are trends in investment demand.
Some of the more important reasons investors buy gold are for an inflation hedge, as a commodity, as a currency hedge, or as a portfolio diversification.
Since it is in gold's role as a portfolio diversifier that I hopefully look for a driver of price, I would indeed appreciate your view, however brief, on this outlook; particularly bearing in mind the divergence of historic relative value between gold and stock equities, expected attendant risks and equity volitility normally encountered at market tops, and, since I agree that axiomatically the dollar is the money of choice, expected swings in the value of the dollar rising from international capital flow - which is now so heavily concentrated toward the US, brought about by the EMU and increasing economic strength of Japan, Germany and other G7 countries.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:28
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Bob - BTW - Your blanket statement that, much as the US population ( melting pot ) and its work ethic had conquered European economic dominace in the 20th century., assumes many things and can be argued from MANY different angles. You should either: 1 ) support such a blanket statement with many supporting facts or, 2 ) narrow the statement down to a more definitive area of argument OR, 3 ) you should use the Benjamin Franklin method of arguement.
All: You have no doubt noticed my recent use of the semi-colon in response to one of our main participant's love of same. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:14
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - Bob - I was pleased to fire up the computer and see you mentioning Century 21 as I work with them as an Independant Real Estate Sales Rep in the Toronto, Ontario region. If anyone would like to invest in their future and make much GOLD at the same time, investing in real estate in this area is almost a sure thing. We have had a price slump for 7 years and we are finally rising from the ashes. In other words we are at the bottom and going UP! This is not just Mooney spewing off at the mouth again, the tide has turned in this area and, an article in Canada's business paper, The Globe and Mail, this past Saturday, said exactly what I'm telling you now and, that it is the time to get into investment property in Toronto. In addition, Americans get an unbelieveably good deal due to the fact that they get 140% on the exchange rate right now and this should correct in the coming years to the point of giving an additional currency induced 10-20% profit on the investment at cash-out time! Anyone interested in a real estate investment in Ontario, at this time, feel free to e-mail me. ( Couldn't resist, Bart, as he mentioned Century 21. Last time til at least August. I promise! )
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 17:12
Bob @..Voronsky's 50-60 studies...action counts more than words>(@..Voronsky's 50-60 studies...action counts more than words): - There is an old saying: Deeds are better than words. The US still owns its gold reserve but it leverages a greater mass of debt. If Greenspan was consistent with his faith in the gold standard as a defense against inflation he should encourage Treasury to increase its gold holding in relation to the size of US monitised Debt. Otherwise his words remain a hollow testimony to the passing of the gold standard.
Again, ( 50-60 ) studies - much like the academic paper that recently recommended US Treasury sell its gold inventory, are valued in relation to the extent the authors may move decision-makers to act or otherwise effect market prices.
I don't recall any major gold price change - up or down - from any article or study. I wonder if any of the studies you refer to have had a material on the market. I question whether these studies really can come close to refutting the message I bring: gold price is determined more by its commodity value than its declining use as a monetary reserve
My message is supported by Mr. Market over the long-term: gold has been in a downward funk since the $850 mark.
Cheers. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:50
Bob @NJ...agree but I probably won't live long enough to see it happen>(@NJ...agree but I probably won't live long enough to see it happen): - I had posted in past that I also believed the Chinese Yaun would become a world currency in Century 21. Western capitalism is fueling Chinese growth. It is a matter of time before the power of the Chinese People becomes the Power of the World Market - much as the US population ( melting pot ) and its work ethic had conquered European economic dominace in the 20th century.
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:44
vronsky MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VI) - MUTUAL FUND DAM WILL BURST>(MELTDOWN of 97 (Part VI) - MUTUAL FUND DAM WILL BURST): - With more than $5 billion pouring into the mutual fund reservoir weekly, the Dam will burst. See June 16, 1997 “The Coming ‘RUN’ on Mutual Funds.”:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:40
vronsky Bob (@...Gold Fundametals 101):>(Bob (@...Gold Fundametals 101):): - Bob: I can think of at least 50-60 studies, reports and analysis to refute your point of view and interpretation of gold's history. But my time limits me to just point out one to you. May I respectfully refer you to Alan Greenspan's considered opinion - before he was forced to quell his Gold Standard reasoning and logic when he donned the Fed Chairman's cap. You can read it in its entirety by clicking the green banner entitled Fed-WATCH, Alan Greenspan - on the Gold Digest page at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
In case you are not inclined to read Greenspan’s complete support of GOLD, here is a very brief idea of the Fed Chairman’s view of the noble metal:
The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists ( government bureaucrats ) to use the banking system as an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the Gold Standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. -- Alan Greenspan.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:38
Bob @Eldorado....99.9% of the world dosen't care about paper debt>(@Eldorado....99.9% of the world dosen't care about paper debt): - Goldbugs tend to overstate the significance of paper debt in general and US per capita debt in particular. Debt must be referenced in context of the system that creates and sanctions it. US debt, in its broadest sense, has been monetized as the world's currency ( currency + debt securities ) .
It is careless to use empirical per capita debt comparisons out of context ( global monitisation ) . If US per capita debt were relevant then inflation in the US would be materially rising and the US greenback + debt securities would suffer accordingly on world markets. ( Notwithstanding conspiracy theories that abound here. )
Agree ?
US per capita debt stats are irrelevant simply because they exclude consideration of the world's population that demands and exploits the value of US Debt. In other words, the denominator is way off the mark.
The big picture is that very few people on this planet care much about debt as long as inflation is low, interest rates are low, and economic growth exceeds debt service.
Some people on this thread are living back in the 1973-83 post-Nam fallout- Oil Crisis - Stagflation mindset that had engrained a habit of thinking about debt and inflation much as our parents thought about the great depression.
The fear of inflation engendered by recent inflationary history had inspired govt deficit reduction programs. For example, Canada has had a declining govt deficit over the past ten or so years after being cited as the worst spendthrift basketcase amoung G7 for many years running.
Times have changed and although govt debt is certainly increasing govt deficit spending is in remission and real economic growth tends to absorb debt financing. Afterall, real growth implies that debt/inflation is in check. As long as material real growth continues in the world's economic engine ( USA ) all of us 'proxy' US citizens will continue to support the greenback and US debt as the common world currrency. Furthermore, as long as the US economy outperforms Japan+Germany the world will continue to back the greenback + US debt.
Perhaps the best evidence in support of the US world dominace theory is the scale of EuroDollar and foreign denominated US debt - both, by definition, held outside the US by foreigners ( or, as I suggest, proxy US citizens ) .
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:38
Big Cheif Gold Bull Greenbackum>(Greenbackum): -
Bob: You likum greenback's but Mr. Moto, him likum
interest.
Me say, big Uncle must printum more confiscation
certificates and use_um generated greenbacks to buyum
Goldum and Silver. This_um good deal, likum one he
pulled on Indian.
He mu_sum act before Mr. Moto. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:34
NJ gold>(gold): - Bob : In post-modern history the US had solifified its global dominace after WWII and then again in the Information Age that rapidly evolved after great strides thereafter. The US greenback superseeded Sterling as the world currency during the mid-20th century.
History will record the Twentieth century as the American century and US contnues to hold the largest gold reserve in the western world, despite having gone off the gold standard in 1973.
I have heard it said that history will record the Twentyfirst century as the Chinese century. China CB is also the world's largest buyer of physical gold. Seems they are aiming to build up a reserve bigger than the US. Once that happens, a hat in hand visit by Greenspan would no longer be neccessary, because then the Chinese money would have replaced the dollar as the world' reserve currency.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:29
GFD Zap!!>(Zap!!): - Spud Master: For the record, the book said that the SDI technology being used are particle beams which interfere with their navigation and propulsion systems. Apparently this will also happen if you zap them with a high power radar. Corso was refering to classified satellite based systems I believe and not ground based systems.
I totally agree with you that THAAD appears to be a joke - although if it keeps being funded it's deplorable sucess record may be disinformation to keep the Russians calm.... - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:28
LSteve @monetize the debt>(@monetize the debt): - I recently read in one of the Washington Letters that I get that the new inflation indexed bonds are becoming very popular. This is interesting since we know that, official statistics are manipulated, to quote Martin Armstrong of PEI when refering to the inflation rate. Apparently someone is worried that the treasury will monetize the debt, i.e. print more money, thus they are buying these bonds. I think they are failing to realize is that no matter what the real inflation rate is, the government now has an incentive to keep the official inflation rate low through manipulation of the inflation statistics. This keeps relative interest on these bonds low. Thus these inflation indexed bonds are nothing more than a marketing gimick. Also one must now operate on the premise that the inflation data is worthless. Anyone looking for inflation data that is going to help gold is not going to find it, unless it comes from some reputable independent institution. The government still has the ability to print money to pay off its debt, and keep everyone believing that inflation is low. This all will ultimately lead to something very ugly. I'm just not so sure how it will play out. Alright guys, shot holes in this theory.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:15
Este to Bob>(to Bob): - Maybe one of the Astrologers in this group can provide an explanation on who was in conjunction with what to cause you to post in this arena such controversial theories? It takes ironclad cojones to put forward ideas like yours in here! Having said that I think you presented some valid points worthy of consideration.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:15
NEWS @4 U>(@4 U): - LONDON, June 19 ( Reuter ) - Precious metal prices were mainly firmer on Thursday afternoon after short covering rallies lifted them from overnight lows, dealers said.
Most of the action came in the platinum group metals ( PGMs ) , where a rally was sparked by borrowing believed to be from the Far East earlier in the day.
``That made people nervous and sparked some short covering. Apart from that, the sell-off yesterday was probably slightly overdone,'' one dealer said.
``Silver is also a bit firmer, which is giving supprt,'' the dealer added.
Gold was fixed at $340.20 per ounce, just five cents above the morning level and compared with $341.60 previously. Comex August gold was a dollar firmer at $342.00.
Late on Wednesday, the Belgian government announced a proposal to sell 26 tonnes a year of its gold reserves in the form of commemorative coins over five years, probably beginning in 1999, if parliamentary permission was secured.
Dealers said the reaction of New York demonstrated the current market frailties over the threat of central bank sales, where fear was more significant than substance, according to one market observer.
``It's not a big deal but it is another blow to market sentiment,'' a dealer said.
Belgium has run down its gold reserves by around 733 tonnes since 1989 to around 596 tonnes currently.
The Hong Kong and Tokyo markets were also easier on the Belgian news but rallied on short covering after the market found support around $340.00.
The dollar slipped back under 1.73 marks after rallying on a below-forecast trade gap for April.
A firmer silver price also gave some support across the complex, dealers said.
It was indicated at $4.79/$4.91, having recovered almost all the losses accumulated on Wednesday afternoon when funds abandoned a rally attempt.
Dealers noted that Russian officials have said first deliveries of palladium were due to begin tomorrow.
``We will have to wait and see but deliveries in early July have been discounted into the price. When they finally start, the market reaction could be an anticlimax,'' one dealer said.
Platinum was $7.00 firmer at $414.50/$419.50 and palladium was up $9.50 at $201.00/$206.00
10:55 06-19-97 - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:13
Jack Jewelry>(Jewelry): -
Bob ( 14:34 ) : With manufacturing improvements and the
current ease of producing precious metal trinkets; I am
confident that jewelers can accept a smaller mark-up and
still be very profitable.
Price is always a factor, but with the existing mark-ups,
a healthy gold price increase will not effect their
bottom line. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 16:04
Mr Moto abacus@chinese treasury>(abacus@chinese treasury): - For Mr BOB
Very good BOB. One question. When you pay chinese the
interest on so - called US debt reserve currency fancy
talk, where you get money from ?. When debt mature
at end of whatever time period and we wan money, where
you get money from Please give me simple answer - no
fancy talk please. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:57
Gunrunner gunrunnr@bsc.com>(gunrunnr@bsc.com): - Damn#@*&%!!! Got stopped out of August COMEX gold. I’d like to get back in the game for the future rise in gold, but am not sure what target month to go long - Oct, Dec ( or beyond? ) . Anyone have any good reco’s? I’m not familiar enough with options to get into that yet. I’ve got an adequate holding of the physical stuff and would prefer to speculate for a bigger return on the leveraged metal contracts. ( I’m not hard over on gold. If there’s money to be made in silver, platinum, etc. I would consider adopting convincing strategies there...
I’m tapped out on commodities of the apocalypse ( firearms ) . Send those aliens my way! Wish I could sell a few for cash, but guns have been like gold lately - a depressed market - too much bad press, pessimism... Too bad I can't sell to our Canadian and British friends, but their governments have banned ownership of all the good guns.
Anyway, I enjoy the dialog and would appreciate any good advice on gold, silver, etc.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:50
Byron @ Limited Time Only!>(@ Limited Time Only!): - For chartists try http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/forms/achart.htx?SOURCE=core/dbc for access to these technical indicators for a limited time only: MA, Bolliger Bands,Linear Regression, On Balance Volumn, RSI, Average True Range, Stochastics, MACD, etc. Have fun!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:43
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Bob -- The world financial system based on an ever growing pile of US debt. Doesn't that sound laughable to you? Doesn't it occur to you that there is only two ways to handle debt; either by repaying it or by defaulting on it. Rolling it over only compounds the problem. Like rolling a small snowball over a carpet of snow, it eventually expands to unmanagable proportions. Debt repayment requires a means to do so. More taxes? Less spending? Much much greater productivity? Be mighty careful waving that 'paper' flag. Many may take you as a paper purchaser some fateful day and try to unload it on you.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:38
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum): -
Earl:
Just a thought that crossed my mind why possibly the Chinese agreed to purchase the American Bonds besides MFN status. When they purchase those bonds, are they not purchasing a piece of America of the Govt of the USA for some reason doesn't pay back the payments due. Would it be possible for the Govt. of China to OWN a city/state/country through default of payment?
TTFN - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:34
Bob A Ques?>(Ques?): - Who is Edward Yardini?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:23
yellowdog @Big Trader>(@Big Trader): - Well, I've been watching HK and London like BT said, but, alas, I'm seeing nothing yet. Looks like his plans went awry or he was a bit premature in his time forecast. He's got 6 more trading days to go to prove he's for real.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:19
Byron @ A >(@ A ): -
Looking at the CDE ( Cour d'Alene ) 5 minute chart today at http://www.quote.com, it shows that today's low was 11 5/8 and the high now is 12 3/4. It shows on the 5 minute chart that it was at the bottom for about 10 minutes and then a sharp V up to the current level. Would have loved to had caught that bottom of 11 5/8.
Now that is what I would like to see in XAU and Gold on the weekly charts. := ) - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:13
Edward Yardeni @dow at 15,000 by 2005>(@dow at 15,000 by 2005): - Call me crazy?...or just plain dumb...?
wow - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 15:12
Bob @...the US Gold Reserve and price theories>(@...the US Gold Reserve and price theories): - The US greenback has replaced gold as the world's defacto reserve of value. US debt is a proxy to the greenback. An interesting observation is that although most of the world's CB cartel members have publicly announced intentions to sell gold sales and have liquidated inventories over the past decade, the US has resisted selling the significant minority inventory they own of the world's marketable gold supply - about 290 mozs.
I believe this is a transitionary policy. The US will hold its gold stock only to extent that it consolidates the greenbacks global power - and more importantly, support for US govt debt as a proxy currency.
The end result is that the entire world financial system is leveraged off the US monetary system and its gold reserve. The US gold reserve increasing supports a smaller portion of US global monitised debt ( currency + debt securities ) . The other world powers have no reason to hold gold reserves as long as the US greenback and debt is backed by gold - whatever the coverage.
The weening off gold as a reseve and deterioration of the gold standard continues unabated. The yellow relic will become a footnote in world financial history. Goldbugs will never accept the passing of gold and will hopelessly await the 'second coming' until the end of time.
( As a point of reference, I note a few interesting themes - war, famine, armagedeon, astrology, conspiracy, TA - woven into some of the Kitco posts to support extreme gold price theories. )
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:44
George S. Cole Andy Smith clone>(Andy Smith clone): - BOB: Andy Smith, Bob Rubin, or Ted Arnold couldn't have said it better. We will see who is correct.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:43
Spud Master Tora! Tora! Tora!>(Tora! Tora! Tora!): - GFD: ...short of a Presidential announcement... ... who the hell cares what the President has to say? I think we can certainly do better than that as a source of veracity - even for so dubious a topic as UFOs. My point is that I seriously doubt *any* alien race able to reach Earth is going to do anything but have a good, hard laugh at our SDI technology. We can't even hit practice targets with THADD interceptors, much less an alien space craft. It's statements such as you quote about SDI scaring the aliens that destroys credibility in the book. Actually, the aliens need not even bother with bioblitzed bioweapons - just wait another two years of this irrational market exuberance + fake FED $ money + consumer debt and the world will be wasted.
Spud - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:34
Bob @...Gold Fundametals 101>(@...Gold Fundametals 101): - The fundamental price of gold ( primarily jewelry demand ) is inelastic. This means that as gold price rises the demand for jewelry declines and inventory builds sufficiently to bring price equalibrium back to a fundamental trading range. The speculative or monetary demand for gold distorts the price dynamic to create an illusion that does not prevail in the long-term inelastic fundamental nature of gold as a major commodity.
The CB Cartel has proven that gold is really a commodity product and that speculative demand for gold based on its historic use are a medium of exchange was only sanctioned to the extent that the world financial powers, and world bankers, were willing to sustain gold as a monetary asset.
To prove my point we need to look back in history when gold was not always commonly accepted as a monetary asset. Manhattan was purchased ( we are told ) by the Dutch from the natives for beads and commodities. The point is that at any given time in history a community determines its set of values and referential composites. To be sure, gold has played a significant role in the discovery of new lands ( America ) in the pursuit of finding additional supply - amoung other geopolitical claims of 15th century empires - primarily English, French, Spanish, Dutch, and Potugese.
The gold standard further solidified the value of the precious metal at a time when paper currency was newly introduced by banks - and later, nations, as a means of common exchange. It was the uncertainty of the new paper dominated currencies in commercial exchnage and as a reserve that made gold - the historic relic of exchange - a valuable reserve currency.
In post-modern history the US had solifified its global dominace after WWII and then again in the Information Age that rapidly evolved after great strides thereafter. The US greenback superseeded Sterling as the world currency during the mid-20th century.
Currency consolidations in Europe and SE Asia - based on the rising Japanese economic miracle and the value of the YEN followed by the five tigers ( HK, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea ) - resulted in a global vote of confidence in the US greenback AND US govt debt as a proxy.
These events in recent history set the stage for the eventual demise of gold as a monetary asset for CB's and global bankers.
The world no longer is ruled by the gold standard and few could care less about the gold standard or the rational premise of the Bretton Woods Agreement that inaugurated the gold standard in 1944.
Gold as a monetary asset is on its death bed. The past fifteen years since the great leap to $850 clearly indicates a long-term downward trend in gold price. CB's are selling there collective stocks ( save the US Treasury ) to focus on ( primarily ) US govt debt as replacement assets - assets that pay interest and retain value within an accepted inflationary range.
The death knell of gold was sounded by the spin doctors and news trumpets that proclaim the coincident death of inflation and stagnation - known as stagflation in the heady days of the 1981-82 great recession.
So there you have it folks.
Gold is in a fundamental funk due to the substantial death of the speculative ( monetary ) demand for the metal. Demand for gold, and price changes, will respond ( inelastically ) to primary fundamental factors - jewelry demand in India, SE Asia, and, to a lesser extent, EC/G7 communities.
My holdings in gold are in the stocks of senior developers that find sufficient world class mines that offer substantial returns after the capital and operating costs are recovered at current prices.
I, like most Kitcoites, hope that gold goes through the roof, but, unlike most Kitcoites, I'm realistic about low probabilty of a long-term recovery of gold prices to its high range - $400+ - prior to the recent sixteen month ( or so ) down trend.
Any thoughts or rebuttals are welcome.
Cheers
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:27
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - 6pak -- Just goes to show what can happen when a country has printing presses for 'money' in the first place! The whole world seems to have that problem. The cure would be to give them the punishment reserved for counterfeiters and all those that allowed them to do so in the first place. 'Course, perhaps we who live in the 'republics' shouldn't look too far and wide for them. We might find ourselves finally looking in the mirror, as WE, as the people, are the government.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:26
GFD Spuds Away!!>(Spuds Away!!): - Spud Master: The issue is not whether the book is real or not. There has been such incredible disinformation out there that short of a Presidential announcement outsiders will never really know for sure what is going on. However, this is the first time that a pentagon/intelligence insider has come out and made statements that UFO's are real and he was personally involved with managing artifacts from them and what he thought of their real agenda.
He is now an old man and can be easily discredited. The question is will he? If he is an advance man, he may not be. If he is discredited ( very high probability ) then how badly? - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:19
2weeks manic_manic_impressive>(manic_manic_impressive): - Gold up $20! No, $30! Wow, it's at 400! Oops, ignore that, sorry, I think I'm delirious. Why don't I just take 3 valium and lie down.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 14:09
6pak Canucks' Corner @ Skeptical Investor>(Canucks' Corner @ Skeptical Investor): - TED June 19 @ 11:45 I am sorry to see only 4 lines of print with
a reference to a Liberal ( NO ! Bank of Canada ) low dollar of 72
to 74 cent canadian.
I thought I would add a note, regarding the financial connection
between Canada, and USofA. Also, the issue of Quebec.
The USofA Federal Reserve established in 1913 ( Woodrow Wilson )
Bank of Canada established in 1935 ( William Lyon Mackenzie King )
Prior to 1935, Canada owned the right to print money. The profit
earned on the sale of this money to the Banks ( 2% ) , issued for
resale to Corporations and the Public ( the Banks SURVIVED on a
spread of one-half to one percent ) , was sufficient to carry all
national infrastructure expenses, without the need for any income
or consumption taxes.
All of this has changed since then as everspiralling tax increases
are needed to pay interest/usury annually, simply because the
International Bankers stole our Printing Press.
The International Bankers are an EMPIRE. They have no enemies in
Russia any more: Communism is a spent force. They have no enemies
in the Labour Unions: They've bought out the Leadership of both
sides. They have only * one * enemy left: * That is us *, and we
represent 90 % of the Canadian Population.
It is not simply a matter of the People of Canada against the People
of the USofA, but of the People of Canada AND the USofA against the
* INVISIBLE * Rulers of both Countries.
Canada is the largest and richest country in the World, and we need
to take our Country back. It was stolen from us. First when the Bank
of Canada was established in 1935, and more conclusively when
MULRONEY did *HIS* Free Trade Deal.
On the surface, for the most part, everything is placid, innocuous,
but underneath everything is seething, turbulent, colliding, revealing
the shapes of evil and of good.
The whole of Canada must free itself from High Finance ! We want
economic independence, in a strong and united Canada.
The Quebecers do not want the separation of Quebec from the rest of
Canada. The French-Canadians are co-founders of Canada. Why should
their descendants separate from Canada ? Will they give up this rich heritage passed on by their ancestors ? Canada belongs to all Canadians
We want a united and prosperous Canada, freed from High Finance.
This poster, would be most interested, in seeing a discussion about
the subject matter above, Yes, as it relates to GOLD. Thanks. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:53
Bob @..analysis, luck, and Gold Cartel>(@..analysis, luck, and Gold Cartel): - Everyone eventually is right at least once - either they are right or they admit to being wrong. As long as the CB's dominate gold market psychology and price any market guess based on technical anaylsis is no more than a complicated ( sometimes laborious ) guess at two possible outcomes - up or down. Technical analysis begins with the premise that the market is near perfect and no party could combine to manage price or quantity. The Gold Cartel controls at least ten years of marketable supply - forget the jewelry stocks. Any of you TA experts care to come in the ring with me and attempt to explain how the CB Cartel does not distort TA on the gold market ?
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:52
EB @agent Scully...>(@agent Scully...): - There is a real TASTIE treat sensation!! OHmy!
AWAY!
EB - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:50
JohnC @South of Noosa Heads>(@South of Noosa Heads): - Mooney,
Hi Steven, thanks for your quick response on option costs.
When I spoke of 40 cents cost of the Backpread, that was per OUNCE and I apologize if I didn't make that clear.... so,..
Cost of -1/dec 360 call;+2/dec 370 calls would be say $40.00. What I'd like to find is if brokerage would then add $30 or $120 to cost. Additonal risk is $10 strike price gap ( i.e. $1000 per contract as you point out ) plus financing cost of margin.
Of course I should have added my usual warnings about selling options being potentially risky. If any one reading doesn't want to post brokerage costs publically, I would be very grateful if they could email me at: jconnolly@warrawee.starnet.com.au
Steven thanks for all your contributions at this great forum.
My tuppence worth on inflation, seeing I know you sell Toronto real estate. My sister and husband were transferred to Sydney 3 weeks ago and in the hunt for a house they have estimated prices have gone up 10% since they first started looking ( from Perth ) just a few months back. It's just as well they don't drink coffee as well. ...But as we all know, there is no inflation.
Happy Trading - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:44
EB @tastie backspreads>(@tastie backspreads): - John C. thank you much for your input. Yes these are the type of spreads to which I am referring. I too have been closely monitoring the call/put volume - Bohl & assoc. page is one of the best on the web. If one is expecting a sharp move upwards ( or downwards for that matter ) than this is the way to get on board CHEAP w/ unlimited profit potential... if you can get a good r/t. Or who cares if they charge $50r/t if the move is what you expect. Just be careful not to have your pants down as you get closer to expiry ( as you say ) . When Gold gets to $383+ ( 50% correction according to RJ ) ...someday... we will have made some TASTIE bucks!
And it will get to $383+...someday...cuz I said so!
Question for GLENN, R.J., D.A. - Will they be offering DEC options with a $5.00 strike increments in the future. They are available in most other contracts. The five dollar increments make for TASTIER spreads...
thanks.
AWAY!
EB
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:36
Clinton @Home Page>(@Home Page): - All the details on Bill Clinton
http://www.zip.com.au/~rocket/clinton.htm - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:33
Poorboys poorboys Canada>(poorboys Canada): - Mike Sheller Question The uranus Venus Square is August 27 how do you arrive with October?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:27
Spud Master 'bring out your dead...>('bring out your dead...): - GFD re. UFOs: Oh, please, get real. Aliens threatened by Earth's SDI technology? Real aliens would just sample our various diseases ( Small pox, anthrax, cholera, measles, typhoid, yellow fever, influenza, etc ) , produce versions immune to our current antibiotics, vaccines, etc. and simply release them simultaneously on the Earth's population. The handful of survivors left a month later would be no problem to them taking over da Earth. The only downside for the Aliens is their would be few Earthwomen left for them to ravish. Of course, they might take Agent Sculley prisoner before the bioblitz in order that they could have their way with her.
Spud - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:24
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com): - John C. @11:55 _ I was just checking in at my lunch hour and have to run again, but your option comment deserves a quick explanation. The possible $10.00 cost of which you speak is actually $1,000. as you might already know ( $10.00* 100oz ) , so the RT #'s of which you speak are much more insignificant than your apparent perception. If RT was $10 per contract you would ahve total costs o $30. ) I think this is possible if you buy the options in quantity ( as discussed here at Kitco previously ) . However if your RT was $40. per trade ( Times 3 trades ) your cost would be $120. However this does not add an overbearing amount ( percentage wise ) to your total trade. I'm sure if you rework the #'s you'll get my drift.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:24
Mike Sheller Smoke 'em if you got 'em>(Smoke 'em if you got 'em): - Talk on CNBC this lunchtime about the numbers in the BigTobacco settlement reaching toward 370 Billion. Yes, that was a B. What a neat way for the government to paper over an annual budget deficit or two. I suppose the money, judging from share prices obviously in the form of higher cigarette taxes, will go into a trust fund for the poor wretched victims, just like SS. There goes EVERYTHING up in smoke. By this reasoning, there should be open season on the distilled alcohol industry. Probably more lives wrecked, ruined, and destroyed by demon rum and its cohorts. Anyone have any ideas why this industry is exempt ( so far ) ? The moral here is be very careful what you choose to do to yourself. Your neighbor may have to pay for it.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:22
panda @>(@): - Congo news;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/19/y0023_y00_2.html
Gold news;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/19/z0009_57.html - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:13
Mike Sheller One last time>(One last time): - STRAD MASTER: First, you did not offend me. I find you to be one of the truly civil gentlemen, among many, at this site. I love debate and verbal and conceptual tussles. That's why I enjoy hanging around. No problem there. Generally, I do not make it a practice to defend astrology, or anything else I'm interested in or do. I just do it. ALL I said was that, like medicine, ( and music ) astrology is an ART based ( BASED ) on a science. The PRACTICE of astrology, like music or medicine, is an ART. Even the LAW, which is a list of rules and regulations - it's ALL SPELLED OUT fer cryin' out loud - is subject to wide and incredible disputation and interpretation. I do NOT claim that astrology is a SCIENCE. Astrology is a very subtle art. At its core it deals with the metaphysics of how things come into being, cycle, and then go out of manifestation. This is very heavy. If you are a total materialist who believes we came from apes and that there is only a chemical explanation for this marvelous universe, then astrology is not for you. If you are a dogmatic religionist who believes that an omnipotent god yanks us about like puppets at his whim, and everything is created and decided by this big guy, then astrology is not for you. If you are the kind of person who admits that the mystery of existence, the true origin of the CONSCIOUS SELF in man, is worthy of search and examination in whatever direction speculative thought leads...then perhaps astrology might be a potentially fruitful addition to all of your other categories of knowledge. Dear Strad, if I may call you Strad, please understand that the true ART of astrology is, to what you've probably been exposed to, as a tin kazoo is to a symphony orchestra. Yes, they both play music. But I think you get the point. So you'll forgive me if a contention over the validity of what I'm interested in is something I do not want to pursue. If you have any specific questions about astrology, I would be happy to offer a thought here and there. I think you will agree that so Iong as my observations concerning astrology have some reasonable relationship to the precious metals, and other important markets, they have as much right to be here as any price chart reader's, or fundamentalist's, or Eliott Waver, or political analyst's. I come here to learn from people who don't do exactly what I do . Hope my response did not inordinately take you from your trading.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:08
Poorboys poorboys@ils.net>(poorboys@ils.net): - Opinion-technical update Dow,SP= VeryBullish Gold = Bearish XAU = Bearish Dollar Poker-faced .All XAU stocks are below the 200 day with no hope in sight.I am know short Gold & Gold stocks to at least September.Any rallies will be short lived until we get over the 200 day.Xau bottom 78 Happy Trails
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 13:04
At Roswell Fiftieth Anniversary>(Fiftieth Anniversary): - The book is quite interesting. As a footnote, Strom Thurmond
has retracted his introduction. Apparently he didn't realize
it was going into a mainstream book.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 12:59
GFD AMAZING!!!>(AMAZING!!!): - I have just finished reading The Day After Rosswell by Col Philip J. Corso ( Ret ) .
Essentially this book is defacto admission by the pentagon that UFO's exist. That is, it is an expose by the man who ran the Army's UFO desk in the early 60's - complete with an introduction by Senator Strom Thurmond.
Corso had a distinguished career in military intelligence, working on McArthur's staff in Korea and then with the NSC in the Eisenhower whitehouse. In 1961 he took over the Foreign Technology Desk for Army R&D and inherited what was left of the Rosswell artifacts that the army had still and talks about how this technology was introduced into existing R&D programs.
Astonishing relevations from someone actually involved with UFO activities in the military but he goes much, much further revealing ( sometimes between the lines, sometimes very esplicitly ) the penetration of the highest levels of Washington by the KGB, the total distrust of the CIA by the military, the hostile intentions of the visitors, their harassment of the space program, how the cold war ( which was very real ) was used to hide a miliary build up to deal with an even greater threat, and finally how we developed anti UFO weapons to counter them.
The full story behind the SDI and the way it changed the Cold War and forced the extraterrestials to change their strategies for this planet is a story that has never been told. But as spectacular and fantastic as it may sound, the story behind limited deployment of the SDI is the story of how humanity won it's first victory against a more powerful and technologically superior enemy who discovered, to whatever version of shock it experiences, that there was real trouble down on it's farm.
What does this book mean Corso reveals that he was the one that leaked information to force Kennedy to face the Russians down - starting the Cuban Missle crises - something Kennedy was apparently trying to avoid. Perhaps he is now trying to do something similar with this book. Perhaps he is an advance man for even more significant revelations about to come.
It will be very, very interesting to see the reaction that this book gets. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:58
Roebear @HersheyBears>(@HersheyBears): - OOPS! XAU 99.47 at 11:54 EDT. I'm waiting for a story about Kelloggs or someone putting gold in cereal boxes for prizes.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:55
JohnC @Pondering the Second Test>(@Pondering the Second Test): - Evening All,
COMEX OPTIONS
EB re your 04:54 comments on Backspreads. I looked up yesterdays Gold Option trading and noticed that things are hotting up in December calls. Dec 360 calls traded 1444 lots ,closing at $2.60. Dec 370 calls traded 3092 lots , closing at $1.50. This in fact looks like someone has already done a hefty backspread in December expiry.
For the speculator, selling 1 360 call and buying 2 370 calls costs 40 cents with a possible MAXIMUM loss of $10.00 PLUS brokerage if Dec futures are trading @ $370 on expiry in November. A ratio spread can become profitable if Dec futures rally by $10 - $20 before then and/or implied volatility in option premiums jumps.
For the market maker on the other side, I imagine they would happily do this trade all day ( the 2 by 1 call ratio spread ) ; ( 1 ) IF they thought gold was going nowhere in the next few weeks and/or ( 2 ) IF they could make prices in the 380 call, get hit on their bid and turn it into a cheap butterfly ( no snickering from the Chaos mathematicians please ) and/or ( 3 ) IF they were prepared to wing it and stump up the short option margin to the clearing house until they could buy the 380 cheaply.
Now I'm probably just raving about what everyone already knows anyway, ( and one of those lurker number persons will probably tell me so ) but EB I thought your comments were worth following up in light of 4000+ December calls going through the day before your post.
Now a question I have that perhaps Glenn, RJ , D.A. or anyone else might help me with is how much brokerage are you charged for Gold calls? If it is something like $10 r/t then the cost of the backspread after brokerage is 70 cents. If brokerage is something like $40 r/t , cost becomes something like $1.60 which would seem to tilt the odds against the trade .
CRICKET
ACW re your 14:00 of the 18th,
For the benefit of our North American friends, the glorious and gentlemanly sport of cricket has in the past temporarily stopped wars, border skirmishes, and many cabinet meetings. And today a contest over 100 years old resumes at the Home of cricket, Lord's in West London. The Second Test is between Marylebone Cricket Club ( England ) and Australia and England have only won once at Lord's this century. Will this be the Second ?
Will Gold bounce off $340, will D.A. have the opportunity to add to his PA longs, will silver's widening daily range signal a precious metals turnaround. Only time will tell.
I thank all contributors for their input, and wish to graciously thank Bart for providing this forum.
Happy Trading
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:48
TED @sorry>(@sorry): - Can't spell worth a damn!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:47
Ron William Safire on the Euro>(William Safire on the Euro): - http://headlines.yahoo.com/nyt/18safi.html
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:45
TED @STOCK MARKERBEARS>(@STOCK MARKERBEARS): - For STOCK MARKET BEARS and any others interested in the market.. ( for the last time ) A good site by a good friend! http://www.chebucto.ns.ca/~an388/comment.html
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:45
Speed @work>(@work): - DocDuke and Panda: Vis a vis DocDuke's 0:19 post on availability of metals. Availability is now. Prices are low with $8 spread on maples and eagles, even better on krands. We keep posting these names here and on Kitco2 but here goes again. Blanchard @ New Orleans spot +15 ask with spot +7 bid. 1 800-285-5466. There are several other places with low spreads like Jefferson Coin and Monex but I don't have their numbers handy. NEVER pay $35 premium on a bullion coin. You don't have to. Later!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:36
Bob A to bw>(to bw): - I agree with you 100%
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:22
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Apologies - should read: Commodities Review ( Gold ) in today's Financial Review IN Oz. http://www.afr.com.au/content/970620/invest/ivcommod.html
These journo's are a day or so behind!! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:20
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au): - Commodities Review ( Gold ) in today's Financial Review is Oz.
http://www.afr.com.au/content/970620/invest/ivcommod.html
These journo's are a day or so behind!! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:20
Strad Master Still waiting.>(Still waiting.): - MIKE SHELLER: It's been a two days since I posted my long piece about astrology and I'm very curious as to your response. I hope you didn't miss seeing it. I also hope you understood that I meant NO offence in writing it. ( I think that was abundantly clear but it never hurts to reiterate. ) My only point of contention was your equating medicine and astrology as somehow scientifically equal. While this isn't the time for it, perhaps you'd be good enough to write a few words when the markets have settled. I'd appreciate hearing from you as I do desire to learn. Thanks.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 11:12
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene): - Between a rock and a hard place. Raise rates and the economy cools off too much. As the numbers are showing, there is a 'bit' of that happening already. Borrowing capacity has already peaked. Bancruptcies making higher highs every quarter. ( There ought to be a futures market in that. ) The only seemingly 'good' news is in the blue chips ( at this time ) . Under these conditions, I would mostly expect the rates to either remain where they are or be eased, providing they don't want an 'end game' scenario developing at this time. This would not reduce an ever increasing mass of bancruptcies from occurring, but may prolong the day until 'things' do rapidly fall apart. The other question remains as to the foreign purchasers of our paper. Will they 'demand' higher rates of return for the ever increasing risk in buying our debt? Much of that depends on the salesmanship of the feds of state. One saleable point is that if the foreign countries of the world want the US to be a marketplace for their goods, they better be buying our paper! And at the rates WE specify! Even at this juncture, that is still much more preferable than selling into third world countries where annual income is measured in only hundreds of dollars, and sometimes much less. Also, the dollar being a major reserve currency of the world, it also behooves them to support its 'value'. How long this paper game can continue is a very reasonable question that only time will answer. But for an end game scenario not to develop, there are a lot of conditions that continually have to be met, and a lot of other scenarios that can't come true least that 'day' arrive. It'll be interesting, as usual, to see how well they can juggle the pieces.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 10:45
NEWS @for U>(@for U): -
The price of gold bullion is higher in light trading in early North
American dealings on steady physical buying.
Dealers said short-covering and scattered physical buying from Italy
pushed the yellow metal higher despite fears over the possibility of
gold sales by European central banks.
Analysts say gold fell below its technical support level at $340 in
Europe on reports that the Belgian government plans to sell its gold
reserves.
Experts noted the Belgian government's plans show that it is pursuing
a policy of removing gold as a significant feature in its central bank
reserves and sent a message that central banks are on the lookout for
any opportunity to sell gold from their reserves.
On the metals markets, in early trading on New York's Comex, a 100-
troy-ounce gold futures contract for June delivery opened at $340, up 90
cents from Wednesday's close.
A 5,000-troy-ounce silver futures contract for July delivery opened
at $4.695, unchanged.
In Europe, gold opened $2.65 an ounce lower in Zurich at $339 and
opened $3 lower in London at $339.50.
The London morning gold fixing was $340.15, off $2.35 from
Wednesday's close.
Silver opened 12 cents lower in Zurich at $4.70 an ounce and opened 9
cents lower in London at $4.72 an ounce.
In Asia, gold fell $2.40 an ounce to $339.65 in Hong Kong. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 10:32
Bob @...Ron on Honk Kong>(@...Ron on Honk Kong): - I could not view yesterday's Washington Post Opinion article that you reference. I did see a news feature on Canadian T.V. about 3 weeks ago about the HK transfer to PRC. The investigative report was conducted with leading HK businessmen, a lawyer, a politician, and 'Joe Average'. The theme was that nobody was jumping ship as the Reds need a prosperous HK to help the Chinese achieve economic goals of growth and self-sufficiency. The HK elite have been co-opted to help China to achieve these golas in return for continued personal financial security. It is a 'win-win' situation for the rich. The politicians and 'Joe Average', however, will need to toe the line. Remember that the British never insituted a real democracy in HK. The autocratic system prevails with a new master in the drivers seat.
Unfortunately for gold, Hong Kong probably will not wink at the RPC take-over and expected restricted policy changes. The Chinese have lots of patience.
The late Ramsey Clark stated upon arrival in Tehran to help negotiate ( privately ) a resolution to the US embassy hostage crisis ( 1980s ) : '..the problem is that Americans expect change to happen immediately...'. We ( Westerners ) are used to fast paced historic change and expect immediate results. The people of HK are used to a fast capitalist economy but a slow historic process - they waited 100 years for the transfer back to China. The RPC has signed an agreement to secure the capitalist system in HK for at least 50 years irrespective of how they treat 'Joe Average'. Human rights, BTW, were not entrenched during the British colonial regime.
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 10:32
Bob @...Ron on Honk Kong>(@...Ron on Honk Kong): - I could not view yesterday's Washington Post Opinion article that you reference. I did see a news feature on Canadian T.V. about 3 weeks ago about the HK transfer to PRC. The investigative report was conducted with leading HK businessmen, a lawyer, a politician, and 'Joe Average'. The theme was that nobody was jumping ship as the Reds need a prosperous HK to help the Chinese achieve economic goals of growth and self-sufficiency. The HK elite have been co-opted to help China to achieve these golas in return for continued personal financial security. It is a 'win-win' situation for the rich. The politicians and 'Joe Average', however, will need to toe the line. Remember that the British never insituted a real democracy in HK. The autocratic system prevails with a new master in the drivers seat.
Unfortunately for gold, Hong Kong probably will not wink at the RPC take-over and expected restricted policy changes. The Chinese have lots of patience.
The late Ramsey Clark stated upon arrival in Tehran to help negotiate ( privately ) a resolution to the US embassy hostage crisis ( 1980s ) : '..the problem is that Americans expect change to happen immediately...'. We ( Westerners ) are used to fast paced historic change and expect immediate results. The people of HK are used to a fast capitalist economy but a slow historic process - they waited 100 years for the transfer back to China. The RPC has signed an agreement to secure the capitalist system in HK for at least 50 years irrespective of how they treat 'Joe Average'. Human rights, BTW, were not entrenched during the British colonial regime.
Cheers - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 10:19
George S. Cole gold action>(gold action): - August gold up $1.40 and gold stocks finally staging a decent rally. As Steve Kaplan has pointed out, Asian gold demand soars every time bullion dips below $340; looks like this may be happening again.
Real tug of war right now. The bears ae going all out; if they cannot trigger a sharp drop in the next few days, a strong rally above $350 is in the cards. Even if they are successful in driving bullion to $330 or so, this still looks like the final spike down. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 10:12
Roebear @XAU>(@XAU): - XAU 100.47, broke 50MA, look out shorts or is this short covering?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 10:06
JR Southfork>(Southfork): -
bw: Why would large amounts of foreign cash lead to
higher rates? Seems Greenspan might lower rates
since inflow makes US dollar stronger. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 09:54
bw Boom times!>(Boom times!): - bill is smokin and joken with the boys in denver. Going to tell em how to grow just like the ol usa. bill should ask a few questions about the roots of this boom in the usa.
Perhaps part of our boom is due in no small part to the floods of hot foreign cash going into tbills. Floods so great that Greenspan is left with but two choices raise rates or credit controls! Either one should start end game.
Perhaps part of our boom is due to the exports of machine tools ect. going to mexico and china ect. Exports they are using to build light industry to sell us the tens of billions worth/month of goods that will be produced in those plants. When their demand for the capitol goods slows will our demand for the cheap consumer goods slow? No problem more tbonds you say. How about a trade deficit of 20 billion/month. That might get the bond markets attention.
Perhaps part of our boom is due to the massive infrastructure we are building to accommodate the new global trade.
Perhaps part of our boom is due to the displaced workers in this country working ( for awhile ) as waiters and gas attendants for the rich who are pocketing most of the profits form the global economy. When things slow and they get layed off?
Yes bill its a boom, keep smokin and perhaps it will last as long as your days in the white house. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 09:43
REB hanging.tough>(hanging.tough): - There is discussion here from time to time about sensitivity to bad news. In this regard, IMO, gold is giving a pretty good account for itself at this time.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 09:38
vronsky POSSIBLE WAR IN KOREA? (Part - II)>(POSSIBLE WAR IN KOREA? (Part - II)): - In the wee hours weeks ago we received an anonymous email which talked about WAR IN KOREA. It's impact on GOLD could be impressive. See ANONYMOUS GURU:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 09:05
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton): - Long Bond up 7 ticks with yield @ 6.67%...Ralph Acampora: Dow 10,000 by June 1998...S+P futures up 3.05...
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:50
TED @G.S.Cole>(@G.S.Cole): - G.S.Cole: You are welcome!...Max is a brillant man even though he's a Bloody Brit...HI JIN! 3.76% loss for the S.E.T....WOW!...Again, thanks for the Bangkok Post and I now read it with my cornflakes every morning!
HAPPY TRADING.... - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:47
George S. Cole august gold>(august gold): - August gold up $1.10 despite better than expected trade report. But unless the gold stocks can stage a decent rally today, the short-term trend is still down.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:42
George S. Cole new era thinking>(new era thinking): - Ted: Thanks for The Skeptical Investor. Good antidote to new era thinking
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:41
JIN HI..TED...>(HI..TED...): - Ted,
morning to you.
i covered my short this morning at u.s 339.20,play save!earn a bit!
look liked metals lack of power to go north,let see!
by the way,the thai financial,commercial ministers steped down today.More cabinet members going to resign soon.the thai stock and bhats TUMBLE LIKED A ROLLING STONE....BANGGGGGGGG!
HAPPY TRADING! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:40
D.A. roasting.in.Tokyo>(roasting.in.Tokyo): - Panda:
Confident Japanese investors putting on fresh shorts in Pa. I love the smell of burning retail investors in the morning. Spot market Pa already up $10 bucks since their brilliance. Can they pick'em. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:34
TED @rainyday>(@rainyday): - Long bond up ONE tick...yawn...S+P futures up 1.15...yawn...London Gold down .60...Bloody Brits!...TRADE DEFICIT= much smaller than expected @ 8.4 Billion ....expected to be 9.5 Billion...S+P futures @ +.65...now +.75...now +1.05...1.45....get the drift!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:23
TED @panda>(@panda): - Mornin Panda...stop yawnin and drink some more of that java!..Trade deficit numbers out in SEVEN minutes...I remember when THAT was the BIG number....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 08:06
panda @Yawn!>(@Yawn!): - Interesting Cobalt story with startling similarities to palladium;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/19/z0009_1.html
Russia Norilsk;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/19/y0023_z00_11.html
But we're broke!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/19/y0023_z00_14.html
Very optimistic Japanese;
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/19/z0009_25.html - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:53
TED @tort>(@tort): - Missile was a direct hit and I'm tryin to piece everything back together again...Will get back at you but I'll be seeing one of those big players on the second leg of my journey...hahaha
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:52
Tortfeasor Sorry>(Sorry): - Blonde, Ted, sorry to stutter. I may have a dual personality.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:50
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Thanks Blonde. Good to hear from you. Ted, the missle is airborne.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:50
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com): - Thanks Blonde. Good to hear from you. Ted, the missle is airborne.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:47
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley): - Mornin Ted : The monsoon continues !! Don't know if anyone has seen this but it falls in line with the our weather. CRAPPY!!!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/18/y0023_4.html - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:46
TED @blonde>(@blonde): - Blonde: I second that!...Liked Richard Millhouse Nixon...hahaha..
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:43
TED @bangkok>(@bangkok): - The Stock Exchange Of Thailand was down 18.17 ( 3.76% ) in Thursday's trading on news minister of finance is resigning...The S.E.T. is down almost 10% in the last THREE trading days...and is now down over 65% in the last 12 months...There's yer CRASH!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:39
Blonde At the beach>(At the beach): - Tort, wonderful chicken jokes!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:35
TED @hongkong>(@hongkong): - Hang Seng up 302.60 ( 2.13% ) ....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:20
TED @fog>(@fog): - EBN Gold up .80 and Silver up 2 cents....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:20
Tortfeasor Morning Joke>(Morning Joke): - Good morning Ted. I'm in the process of constructing a missle for you. As I look at the charts it looks like the criminal returning to the scene of the crime, the bear returning to its honey tree, gold returning to $400/oz. One must ask why. Why does the chicken cross the road? I cannot answer the former but try me on the latter.
Why did the chicken cross the road?
Answers:
Pat Buchanan:
To steal a job from a decent, hard-working American.
Machiavelli:
The point is that the chicken crossed the road. Who cares why?
The ends of crossing the road justify whatever motive there was.
Thomas de Torquemada:
Give me ten minutes with the chicken and I'll find out.
Timothy Leary:
Because that's the only kind of trip the Establishment would let it take.
Carl Jung:
The confluence of events in the cultural gestalt necessitated
that individual chickens cross roads at this historical juncture, and,
therefore, synchronicitously brought such occurrences into being.
John Locke:
Because he was exercising his natural right to liberty.
Albert Camus:
It doesn't matter; the chicken's actions have no meaning except to him.
The Bible:
And God came down from the heavens, and He said unto the chicken,
Thou shalt cross the road. And the Chicken crossed the road,
and there was much rejoicing.
Fox Mulder:
It was a government conspiracy.
Freud:
The fact that you thought that the chicken crossed the road
reveals your underlying sexual insecurity.
Darwin:
Chickens, over great periods of time, have been naturally selected
in such a way that they are now genetically dispositioned to cross roads.
Darwin #2:
It was the logical next step after coming down from the trees.
Richard M. Nixon:
The chicken did not cross the road.
I repeat, the chicken did not cross the road.
Oliver Stone:
The question is not Why did the chicken cross the road?
but is rather Who was crossing the road at the same time whom we
overlooked in our haste to observe the chicken crossing?
Jerry Seinfeld:
Why does anyone cross a road? I mean, why doesn't anyone ever think to ask, What the heck was this chicken doing walking around all over the place anyway?
The Pope:
That is only for God to know.
Louis Farrakhan:
The road, you will see, represents the black man. The chicken crossed the black man in order to trample him and keep him down.
Martin Luther King, Jr.:
I envision a world where all chickens will be free to cross roads without having their motives called into question.
Immanuel Kant:
The chicken, being an autonomous being,
chose to cross the road of his own free will.
Grandpa:
In my day, we didn't ask why the chicken crossed the road. Someone told us that the chicken had crossed the road, and that was good enough for us.
Dirk Gently ( Holistic Detective ) : I'm not exactly sure why, but right now I've got a horse in my bathroom.
Bill Gates:
I have just released the new Chicken 2000, which will both cross roads
AND balance your checkbook, though when it divides 3 by 2 it gets 1.4999999999.
M.C.Escher:
That depends on which plane of reality the chicken was on at the time.
George Orwell:
Because the government had fooled him into thinking that he was crossing the road of his own free will, when he was really only serving their interests.
Colonel Sanders:
I missed one?
Plato:
For the greater good.
Aristotle:
To actualize its potential.
Karl Marx:
It was a historical inevitability.
Nietzsche:
Because if you gaze too long across the Road, the Road gazes also across you.
B.F. Skinner:
Because the external influences, which had pervaded its sensorium from
birth, had caused it to develop in such a fashion that it would tend to cross roads, even while believing these actions to be of its own freewill.
Jean-Paul Sartre:
In order to act in good faith and be true to itself, the chicken found it necessary to cross the road.
Albert Einstein:
Whether the chicken crossed the road or the road crossed the chicken depends upon your frame of reference.
Pyrrho the Skeptic:
What road?
The Sphinx:
You tell me.
Buddha:
If you ask this question, you deny your own chicken nature.
Emily Dickenson:
Because it could not stop for death.
Ralph Waldo Emerson:
It didn't cross the road; it transcended it.
Ernest Hemingway:
To die. In the rain.
Saddam Hussein:
This was an unprovoked act of rebellion and we were quite justified in dropping 50 tons of nerve gas on it.
Saddam Hussein #2:
It is the Mother of all Chickens.
Joseph Stalin:
I don't care. Catch it. I need its eggs to make my omelette.
Dr. Seuss:
Did the chicken cross the road?
Did he cross it with a toad?
Yes the chicken crossed the road,
but why it cross it, I've not been told!
O.J.:
It didn't. I was playing golf with it at the time. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:17
Bob A to miro>(to miro): - I wish I knew but I sure don't think people will throw good money after bad. Sorry late with reply but I monitor this group while at work.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:10
Donald Duck @mickey>(@mickey): - Hi Mick!
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:08
TED @mikesheller>(@mikesheller): - Mornin Mike!...Rain+fog here....Long Bond UNCH this morn with yield @ 6.68%...CRASH in THailand continues....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:07
mickey to Mr. Disney>(to Mr. Disney): - Sir, Welcome back from the Big Chill. Can you please tell Mr.
E. to bring back family values to our company? We are getting
bad press and those gay days at the park aren't helping. Oh,
and Donald says Hi. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:04
TED @where'sourJOKE>(@where'sourJOKE): - EBN Gold up .70 and Silver up 2 cents...Trade deficit out at 8:30 ( EST ) :expected to rise to 9.5 from 8.5....Canada's economy gathers strength: The order backlog of manufacturers in April showed the biggest monthly gain in 3 years,rising 4.4% from March...Thank you, low Canadian Dollar....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 07:00
Mike Sheller QUOTE OF THE WEEK (MONTH, YEAR, DECADE)>(QUOTE OF THE WEEK (MONTH, YEAR, DECADE)): - JOHN DISNEY: High praise for your memorable quote Bonds are deferred money printing for rich people. You have elegantly summarized the GAME since 1980. But all games must end for new ones. There IS inflation...we are merely EXPORTING it into the FUTURE. But, then, isn't that what one always does with inflation? John, re your 1:45 - Don't forget the shades to go with your shibui Platinum bracelet and crocodile shoes ( I don't know how shubui reptile skin is here ) . LARRY: I don't see this gold market falling fast at all. Maybe last Fall/Winter, but now? NAILZ: ezau musta been talkin' about you, buddy. I'm no psychic. Wish I were.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 06:23
TED @goodmornin>(@goodmornin): - EBN Gold up .75 and Silver up 2 cents....
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 04:54
EB @some comments...>(@some comments...): - RJ: our soviet friends will NOT deliver PGMs as they say. Since your first posts you have been alluding to this. It will be so! Your longs are still solid ( as if you needed me to tell you that ) . Thanks for your Silver advice also...you are starting to sound a little more human with your postings tonight. I had you pegged for a true Demi-God. I know... its hard to live in So Cal w/ thongs and Herradura and to be without temptations and a HEALTHY libido ( we live close; I know ) . You have come down to the level of the common man. I'm sure you'll come around with your poetry again soon. I already miss it!
I do want to comment on your 6/12 04:35 post-US CPI last 20 yrs...Gold stats. ( I printed it for a good day ) . I have been studying these stats and feel good about them. Plot all the numbers for a bell curve...nature and symmetry abound! or just look at them closely. Without all this talk about selling by CB's and all the other nonsense where will the price of gold be in the next six months? Well... $383.00US is the average or 50% retracement ( $386.00 GCQ7 ) , right? I am not refuting your evidence but supporting it. Of course it may not happen until the price pushes down a little more. I love this stuff from an intermmediate to long term range! BLAH BLAH BLAH
STRATEGIES for all? YES! OPTIONS? CALLS? YES! MONTH? I DON'T KNOW! OUT OF THE MONEY LONG TERM CALLS? NO! Buy VERY, VERY inexpensive ( nowadays ) close-to-the-money backspreads for August or October. If that doesn't work try December...etc. Work with your broker who specializes in options and will not reem you for commissions. You can build healthy positions near term for big gains at low cost - and keep doing it if you expire worthless Watch your hind end, you have a little exposure though. The risk/reward ratio is VERY appealing. YUM! YUM! LOT OF FUN!
And remember... trading futures involves risk BLAH BLAH BLAH you can get burned if you play with matches BLAH BLAH BLAH.
God it's late. g'night...
AWAY!
EB - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 04:50
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust): - EBN gold up .85, silver up .01
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 04:27
Bernatz de Ventadorm le fou@ buys bonds>(le fou@ buys bonds): - For Monsiour d'Isgny
Ma fren - vous avez raison - Ah am eshockED. Ziz ees ah scanDALE
by dam. Ah sell mah Pyraneen Governmente scam bonds when zee market open an ah buy zee gold wiz zee monaie . Who do zeez bums zink ah am by gar - ah stuPEED
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 04:19
Phil Harris looking@gold chart>(looking@gold chart): - For Lord
If you cant help me - puleeze dont help dat bear - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 03:29
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com): - Mr. Disney : thank you. It is a nice feeling to contributute to this
fine forum.
I have another item for everyone: ( the lastest rumor I've heard )
Today the Russian space agency launched a Proton rocket with 7 Iridium
satelites on it. 30 minutes ago all 7 were released and had communicated
with the ground. The launch was ontime ( unlike the US launch of last month )
and without any problems ( again unlike the US launch ) . The word I heard
was everyone was amazed with the Russian technology. It far exceeded
what anyone was expecting. Yes, the technology is crude and old but it
works. To my knowledge, this was the first commerical Russian launch
for a US company. Didn't someone have a great quote about underestimating
your ememy? I think the QualComm/Baby Bells boys are feeling alittle
like the Japanese PA shorters right now. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 03:09
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com): - Beyond UGLY.... FSAGX & FDPMX hourly charts at:
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/agpm70hr.gif - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 03:03
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For Puetz
AHA THAT WAS A TRICK AND IT WORKED.
I only said something like my mind set was blah
blah ... system would not collapse and I was just
kidding anyway.
This was the SECOND time that I have said that
1 - since all governments only issue bonds to the
extent that maximum attainable tax receipts do not
cover their costs.
2 - only a dope would believe that there is any way
they can repay the bonds since they have no source of
real income OTHER THAN tax receipts ( already at max ) - so
3 - the money to balance must be printed.
BUT Rather than print the money NOW to balance - they
print a BOND instead- sell to a guy with some dough
left after paying taxes and tell him they will print
the noney for HIM at maturity and print some INTEREST
for HIM in the meantime. So bond sales are DEFERRED
MONEY PRINTING for rich people. Since rich people in
US are getting sick of bonds Rubin now seeks them in
Japan/China - He even sells them to other GOVERMENTS
WHO ALSO RUN their OWN bond ponzi scheme ( this kills me
- these guys can be brazen - how stupid do they think
people are ? ) .
I have said this twice and asked for comments
since I thought I was perhaps nuts. Nobody said a
word !!!
YOU ARE THE FIRST PUETZ AND I THANK YOU.
Some guys from Vermont ( who seem to be changing
a bit ) even told me at some stage that I should PRAY
for the US Government, and then in the same breath
they complained about the rich getting richer and
how we should help our fellow man via the Government
intermediary. Guys like this are part of the problem.
and they even get the judeo-christian ethic into this
scam. They have been brainwashed by the guys they
SHOULD HATE but LOVE and WORSHIP instead - God Bless
our media - what a job it does.
Did you ever read Nausea by Sartre - A guy all
of a sudden has moments when he sees what the
world is really like - and he throws up ! - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 02:20
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - for Kuston
Sorry not to give you full credit - but couldnt find copy your post.
Believe platinum style - taste aspects extends korea - china - dont
think it is a skin tone thing but much deeper than that. Konji that
corresponds to understated austere non-gaudy side of japanese word
shibui must have big influence. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 02:13
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - To all
Im starting to bore myself with this platinum
stuff so what must I be doing to you guys -
Mining journal gold service June states increasingly
lower emission standards..... led to... widespread use
of CLOSE - COUPLED catalysts with high palladium
loadings. In addition, UNDERFLOOR CATALYSTS,traditionally
the domain of platinum-rhodium formulations, are being
replaced by.....palladium. It also says that the its
use in autocatalyst ( 2.5 mill oz ) is greater than the
Wests output.
It also says that electronics uses ( 2.2 mill ) were eroded
last year by 15% due to substitution with nickel in
less critical multi layer ceramic capacitor applications.
I think we need some s&d balaces for the PGM
Daddy, whats an UNDERFLOOR CATALYST and what does
CLOSE COUPLED MEAN
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 02:03
Ali @seasonalgoldrally>(@seasonalgoldrally): - Puetz and all traders.There should be a rally in the yellow metal soon, if not for any other reason than that the trade shows will come up soon in the jewellery business.Is there a graph of the gold price during the year?
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 01:47
Kaizer Soyze police lineup@the usual suspects>(police lineup@the usual suspects): - These guys would never break - never give up
-- Keep the faith - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 01:45
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com): - For the Roebear and Jung and Waite
Okay in the aesthetic or style sense shibui
means austere, understated, restrained. In the extreme
perhaps maybe astringent. The opposite of gaudy!
In this meaning there must be a konji for it and that
character presumably has a similar meaning in Chinese.
Gold is gaudy. I love it but it is ( dare I speak the word )
a touch FLASHY.
I suspect that longer term, Chinese with dough will
go for platinum over gold in jewellery as did japanese.
Their attitude, mind set, and their taste will control-
I can recall Japanese women gazing at black iron tea
pots or caligraphy or things black on black whispering
shibui des - ne ? - Whatever it is - Gold is
definitely NOT shibui.
Japanese platinum jewel demand 1,500,000 oz -
Europe demand 120,000, US 90,000, China 75,000. There
are a few messages here. Buy platinum of course, but
what does it say about US taste ? a bit Neanderthal
perhaps - a gold watch on a black haired wrist - YUK.
IM switching to platinum. AND CROCK-O-DILE SHOES MAN
lak RJ _____ Lets show a little style.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 00:57
Larry eaglewg@flash.net>(eaglewg@flash.net): - RJ and Puetz.. To interrupt your conversation, I'd like to add a few comments... RJ, for the rally in February, gold jerked up due to an oversold situation where alot of buyers stepped in and a run on shorts lasted several days. However, since the gold market is not just U.S. driven, even short covering at the Comex will reach a level where the Chinese, Indians, South Africans, Swiss, Arabs, etc, think its too high, and the peak is short lived. That happened in February and May, 1997.
For the rally in Spring 1996, the Chinese were experiencing inflation and therefore had demand for gold by individuals, which supported the worldwide rally, helping to push gold over $420. Since then, they have lowered their inflation considerably and the yuan has actually appreciated against the dollar, one of very few currencies which has. Why buy gold when your currency is doing so well?
There is currently very little international demand above $340 and Comex rallies will be short lived until there is a news shocker to change the international status quo. When that happens, I think Puetz is correct in predicting a zooming short covering bonanza.
In the long run, I'm a raging gold bull, but in the short term, we're in a down trend.
With that said, the current short term market is falling so fast that it reminds me of a spring being compressed and approaching its physical limit. It will bounce back with a nice short rally, perhaps to 350, or it will break....., shifting to a more negative paradigm.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 00:26
APH 000000000000000000>(000000000000000000): - The XAU and gold are getting very close to the target prices posted here over the last several weeks ( 5/30 21:12, 6/9 18:23 ) . This pull back has lasted longer than I had hoped which could mean more basing for a few weeks, but the price low maybe in within the next couple of days. Under 97 the XAU is a buy with a mental stop close of 95. Front month comex gold should bottom at 336. Buy Aug. Gold at 340 or lower using 338 stop close only. For now this is a short term trade but could easily turn into an intermediate term trade.
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 00:25
nailz FOR EZAU....>(FOR EZAU....): - EZAU....There are no guarantees in the markets....There are, however points at which the odds change....Neither have I met a psychic for the markets nor a guru with 100% success....This, like a good game of poker,or a roll on the craps tables, is played on the odds....Place your bets and pay for your draw of the cards or your chance to roll the dice...Sometimes snake eyes and sometimes sevens....Your message was directed toward either me or Mike Sheller, I guess....Can't speak for Mike, but I would be happy to compare results over the last 20 years with you...
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 00:21
RT @Monthly XAU Chart w/goodies>(@Monthly XAU Chart w/goodies): - Click on icon to see a montly XAU chart w/bollinger bands, rate of change, stochastics, and williams %r indicator. Personally, I think we're headed to the top of the upper bollinger band fairly quickly, at least by Sept. Just my opinion. All you chartists out there can draw your own conclusions. happy trading, all :- ) )
- Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 00:15
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky): - Panda: About 2 weeks ago, Kruggerands were selling for spot+$15,
but only a few were available. Eagles & Maple Leafs are +$35,
also limited availability. I noticed that there were 4 or 5
kilogram bars in the safe, however, so the issue may be form,
not availability. - Date: Thu Jun 19 1997 00:04
ezau swami@sag.com>(swami@sag.com): - Ah yes, a chat line with it's own psychic. And it is free.
Remember, chart readers are seers, also. Think not?
When was the last time a chart point or number remembered
anything? The line is a head and shoulder, so what, the
chart doesn't know it. It doesn't matter if you do.
The whales are justing waiting to eat your lunch at the next
phoney resistence level.
