ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
the service? Sounds strange they don't charge some kind of
rent, especially after going to all the trouble of building
huge vaults, etc. If they do charge a fee they don't cover
their costs. Who owns the gold anyway? Surely not the
politicians, they have trouble keeping their pants zipped up
and not sending our young men into European battles.
The gold market is not cornered by the C. Banks.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
BIG BEN LOSS@S.AFRICAN gold>(LOSS@S.AFRICAN gold):
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
hedge at all.
For ARS in Mexico. That a very tough question. DD loses money at the
present gold price but will almost double production in September which
should give some economy of scale.
Blyvoor is close to breakeven at present gold price but also have
projects in place to lower cost.
Buffles still profitable at present gold price.
Merger itself should provide additional scale economy which should
lower costs still further
tarnished @Dinghy>(@Dinghy):
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
Having just reread my earlier post on the dbn-deep merger, and at
the risk of starting a big argument, I believe that Barrick is one of
the most over priced stocks in the world based on cost of capacity amd
cost per ounce of reserves. On the subject of their vaunted management,
these guys almost bought into Bre-X ( if anyone remembers ) .
I believe that if Barrick had any imagination, brains, or B***S, they
would be in South Africa offerring three times market value for durban
deep right now. Are the wittle boobies afwaid of getting mugged in Joberg
Reify @Watching>(@Watching):
Since you've been waiting for my latest readings, with baited breath, here are a few thoughts for y'all;-
When last reporting, I thought the CRB would get to 260 range it didn't, and now that a correction is proceeding, I believe it's almost over, and it sure was a quicky. We're now at 247, and the 244 range should be it.
The long term gold charts looks like we should be starting our move up from these levels shortly, maybe a few more days to a week. I don't believe we'll be flying just yet, but maybe by July- August. The move may in some cases take up to September- November, before correcting.
Some of you have had the opinion, which I respect, that we're headed for the $330 range before moving up. Sorry, but just can't see this, unless something weird should happen, and that has been known to happen on occasion.
Some of the near term charts, like HM,PDG, BGO,GLG-etc. I believe should start up today or in the next day or two.
The XOI, and Crude, should begin to correct from these levels, but maybe not very far. Hard to tell.
The markets should also correct from these levels, and again after that I can't tell. I say this because I see accumulation and bottom formation in quite a few stocks that I follow, so maybe the small caps still have a move up to make before the big bad BEAR starts to roar for real.
Any comments?
Short Bull- didn't see you latest, what happened?
Reify @Check it out>(@Check it out):
Recently Short Bull suggested to check out a stock called Caledonia Mng.
I did and lo&behold it looked interestin, so I added it to my list of companies which I chart and watch, and in yesterdays lower price action, would you believe this one bucked the trend. Check it out. It looks good once a larger base has been made, but then one can never tell, it may not wait to base.
The credit to Short Bull- the cash to me.
Charlse hmg@cchono.com>(hmg@cchono.com):
Thanks for the LGN post. A month ago or so, LGN issued an e-mail to me stating that would be the last newletter update. I tried sending them several e-mails asking if I would receive a refund as I had paid them $500 for a Lifetime subscription. They initially told me that I could get a full refund if if wasn't satisfied with the surface. Needless to say, they would not respond to any of my e-mail messages. Do you know if they are back in business? Are they once again issuing a newsletter to subscribers? Would you happen to have there telephone number? I would much appreciate any information you may have.
Thankyou.
Charlse
RJ rjs@pacbell.net>(rjs@pacbell.net):
Silver will take a run at $5.00 in the next couple weeks, if it breaks through, $5.40 soon. Gold is done for this year. $350 is screaming short and $325 may not be the low, but I doubt it will break $300. I have traded enogh gold in my time to think it deserves a descent christian burial, but that will just create a martyr. Instead, I will be repectful and kind and lay piles of straw at the bottom for a hopefully soft landing. A dear friend, so injured now, can still draw from afar, resources to breath life where litte resides, but enough to always not ignore. I know There are numerous markers out there that we may collect for the sicly yellow lass as we set he genly on the straw. We will hear her stories ( most of which we've heard too may times ) and pat her nuggets. With a blown kiss and encouragement to rest easy tonight, we will depart for business.
We will sell her for her beauty,
we will sell her for her class,
we will sell her because she is
Our little golden lass.
One day we may buy
But for the life of us all
Who among us knows why?
I trade millions every week ( my clients $, not my own ) in the three beautiful metals with some rolls of the dice in palladium.I speak with traders on the floor, and traders up above. When I have concerns over near term disruptions in supply, We are mor likley to be found having luch and a game of darts in some mock pub with the South African Ammbasador. It's nice to know what he thinks, only as it is possible to rely that our understanding of their thougts carry less self service than any other who proposes to love and cherish through good to bad.I'm a new guy here but I trade lots-o-metals every day. I have read these postings off and on for months with nary a single desire to post but I'm having too much fun and see too much ahead to remain silent.I count amonng my brethren those who were compelled to buy platinum and short gold on that magical day last Decenmber when platinum dipped below gold. My true brothers were not fooled by platinum tracking gold dollor for dollor and held, and held, and hold untill today when they will hold some more. $75 spread is not nearly enough to reward the courage it took to stay. Gold/platinum spread will rise to to $100 for
RJ rjs@pacbell.net>(rjs@pacbell.net):
Silver will take a run at $5.00 in the next couple weeks, if it breaks through, $5.40 soon. Gold is done for this year. $350 is screaming short and $325 may not be the low, but I doubt it will break $300. I have traded enogh gold in my time to think it deserves a descent christian burial, but that will just create a martyr. Instead, I will be repectful and kind and lay piles of straw at the bottom for a hopefully soft landing. A dear friend, so injured now, can still draw from afar, resources to breath life where litte resides, but enough to always not ignore. I know There are numerous markers out there that we may collect for the sicly yellow lass as we set he genly on the straw. We will hear her stories ( most of which we've heard too may times ) and pat her nuggets. With a blown kiss and encouragement to rest easy tonight, we will depart for business.
We will sell her for her beauty,
we will sell her for her class,
we will sell her because she is
Our little golden lass.
One day we may buy
But for the life of us all
Who among us knows why?
I trade millions every week ( my clients $, not my own ) in the three beautiful metals with some rolls of the dice in palladium.I speak with traders on the floor, and traders up above. When I have concerns over near term disruptions in supply, We are mor likley to be found having luch and a game of darts in some mock pub with the South African Ammbasador. It's nice to know what he thinks, only as it is possible to rely that our understanding of their thougts carry less self service than any other who proposes to love and cherish through good to bad.I'm a new guy here but I trade lots-o-metals every day. I have read these postings off and on for months with nary a single desire to post but I'm having too much fun and see too much ahead to remain silent.I count amonng my brethren those who were compelled to buy platinum and short gold on that magical day last Decenmber when platinum dipped below gold. My true brothers were not fooled by platinum tracking gold dollor for dollor and held, and held, and hold untill today when they will hold some more. $75 spread is not nearly enough to reward the courage it took to stay. Gold/platinum spread will rise to to $100 for the first time in almost a decade. It's still a play, butwith some of the bottom gone, a slighly more meager one, albeit with acceptable returns. What the hell, the risk is almost nonexsistent. I'm a new guy in this group, I know. I will comport myself with dignity and hope to have extended to me the hospitallity you have. There comes a time in which our indroduction to the world cements certain expectations. We will talk of those next time.
RJ
PSS.
This is what I do for a living. Only metals, I love It. I have persoally move the markect my self recently. Let me know if you would like a no
bgs take on the market
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
seven hours ( prices ) per day, for ten days.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/aghr.gif
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
yellowdog @RJ>(@RJ):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
It's simple. Gold will decline, silver will rise. Don't be shocked, it happanes all the time. With the twin spetres of German & Swiss central bank wanting to revalue their gold reserves. This is all prepretory to some acctual gold sales from these major counmtries this year. Forget about price ratios, forget about inflation or any other thing on the rest of the earth. If you don't believe that central eurpoe will forever cap gold this year, look to place some shorts. The Swiss and the Germans both are attempting to raise lease rates, their attempted revalue of their gold reserves have cast a profane and ugly pall over the gold market. Yes! Silver will rise - gold will fall............ The best of both worlds...... show me the $.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Silver is overdue for anoter .60 run. The PGM's are operation on ther own fundimentals.Fortget about gold and silver this time arround. The current short squeeze in the PGM's are unpresidented, so we will continue to see lower gold and higher silver. You've got to believe!!!!! Let me ask you, did you beleive in peanut buter?
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
George S. Cole LGN>(LGN):
GN Daily Review & Trade Alert ( Thurs, May 22nd, 1997 )
Date:
Thu, 22 May 1997 18:31:02 -0400
From:
THE LGN MARKET LETTER
DAILY MARKET REVIEW & TRADE ALERT
Wednesday - May 22nd - 1997
STOCKS TO WATCH
As an LGN Market Letter reader you know that we have been talking about
America Online's stronger financial situation, better marketing strategies,
and overall market share increase. Today, AOL shares surged 2 1/8 in very
active trading, boosted by Cowen & Co. report's positive comments on the
on-line service provider.
BROAD MARKETS
( * ) The Dow lost 32.56, at 7258.13.
( * ) Big Board gainers topped losers 13 to 12 on volume of 426.9 million shares.
( * ) In broad measure action: the NYSE index fell by 1.55, the S&P 500 lost
3.69, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 1.16; whereas the Russell 2000
small-stock index gained 1.40 and the Amex composite finished up 1.65.
( * ) The long bond close down 10/32, to yield 6.98%; intermediate-term notes
lost 1/32 to 6/32; and the 3-month bill yield rose 5 basis points to 5.03%.
( * ) Lastly, the dollar was quoted at 116.03 yen and 1.6943 marks, up 1 2/3
yen and up 1/8 pfennig respectively.
Today's action came as a confirmation: the markets are giving back gains
made on the euphoria of the recent Fed's decision not to raise interest
rates. In fact, despite a few strong price swings, we are not really that
far from last month's levels.
Second on the NYSE's list of most actively traded stocks, an IPO from
Hartford Life was a success with investors, fetching a 14% premium over its
original $28.25 offer price.
On merger news, reports that the European Commission officially challenged
Boeing's planned acquisition of McDonnell Douglas caused shares of the
aerospace giant to tumble by more that 2 points. Meanwhile, RCSB Financial
surged 6 * ( 18% ) as it agreed to be acquired by Charter One Financial; RCSB
is the holding company for Rochester Community Savings Bank.
PRECIOUS METALS
( * ) Spot gold fixed at $342.75 per ounce, against a previous close of
$342.40; while the Comex June contract was down $0.40 at $343.60.
( * ) Platinum was down $5.75, at $387.75, while silver fixed at $4.67, down 2
cents.
Precious metals prices eased from morning levels as New York appeared to
adjust to lower European levels. With the dollar off its closing low
against the yen, traders lost incentive to trade gold, as the yen's strength
had been a stronger gold supporter. Overall, gold business was
unexceptional at best, as it reflected a slightly firmer dollar following
a rise in jobless figures to 322,000 from the revised 319,000 the previous week.
As expected, most of the weakness came once again from the platinum group
metals and especially palladium, which was sold by Swiss dealers early in
Europe and fell steeply on the Nymex opening.
However, we do not think that palladium's rally is over. According to our
sources, the Tiger Management fund has the market were it wants it''. Some
dealers forecast the funds hanging on to palladium positions until the price
is ``up to $300''. We know that open interest is over 5,000 lots on the
contract on May 20.
Silver remained quiet today. For the days to come, we expect silver price
levels to drift lower with the upcoming long holiday weekend in London.
Your Fellow Investor,
Patrick J. Jacquemin
©1997 LGN Capital Management. All Rights Reserved.
LGN Capital Management. 3109 Grand Avenue. Suite 200. Miami. Florida 33133.
For subscription details, please email LGNcapital@aol.com or call ( 305 )
387-5440.
George S. Cole gold flat>(gold flat):
George S. Cole outlook>(outlook):
I also agree that the overall market market may now be entering a corrective phase, but the top isn't in yet; certainly not for the small caps. The Russell 2000 small cap index continues to outperform the big cap indexes by wide margins, but this trend is only a few weeks old and has a considerable way to go. My best guess is that the market will not peak until late summer.
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
Its not as simple as I said. BECAUSE at the time
of conversion, IF you hold Durban Deep shares, you will
receive one half of a new option striking price 60,
expiry sometime in 2002. I figure the option is worth
about 6 rand. If you come in via blyvoor you dont get
this. Also I dont know how it works with ADR. So in
the joberg market if DD is 21 and you want to break
even with blyvoor, BEV blyvoor is ( 21-.5*6 ) /5= 3.6.
BEV ADR in $ = 3.6*3/4.47= 2.4 $. So market is pretty
efficient and there is no advantage either way IF the
ADR yield an option. I doubt if they do. My own experience
if that options on ADR are auctioned all in one day for
practically no value. If Im right on this, then the best
way to go in is via Blyvoor.
George S. Cole EMU dying?>(EMU dying?):
Death of EMU would be very positive for gold by greatly reducing the prospect of further CB sales, and encouraging reflationary monetary policy on the continent.
June 5, 1997
Continental Rift
BY TONY JUDT
he first two lessons from the Socialist victory in France's elections on Sunday are
obvious, and mostly of interest to the French. One is that President Jacques Chirac and
the Gaullist movement are in trouble, revealing a dangerous sinkhole on the right wing
of French politics. The second is that any serious attempt to reduce France's generous social
and welfare provisions will be overwhelmingly rebuffed by the French public.
A third lesson, however, will have broad consequences for Europe and the world. It is that the
goal of uniting Europe around the euro, the common currency envisaged under the Maastricht
Treaty, has been revealed as politically unattainable.
Paradoxically, it was the Socialist President François Mitterrand who was the driving force
behind the Maastricht agreement in December 1991. Like many of the previous stages in the
European Community's forging of an ever closer union over the last 40 years, the treaty was
economic in form but political in purpose.
In the aftermath of German unification, the French were anxious to bind their powerful
neighbor firmly within existing European institutions. Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany
assented readily, but only on the condition that the move to a single European currency be
achieved at no cost to Germany's cherished monetary stability. If the German currency was to
be folded into the euro, then the euro would have to be as firm as the mark.
But the criteria under which member states are allowed to join the monetary union -- notably
the requirement that their annual budget deficit not exceed 3 percent of gross domestic product
-- were arbitrarily set nearly six years ago and represent an unrealistic and excessive concern
with monetary stability. Such terms might have made sense in an era of sustained high
economic growth. But in today's straitened circumstances they oblige governments to pass
unpopular deflationary measures and spending cuts -- and thus destabilize national politics.
Furthermore, the race to the euro has encouraged political dishonesty and bad faith among the
European member states. To qualify for membership in their own club, the French and more
recently the Germans have attempted budgetary sleight of hand -- the French by mortgaging
state pension plans and the Germans by unsuccessfully trying to revalue their central bank's
gold reserves.
This has soured relations with smaller nations like Spain and Italy, which the Germans have
sanctimoniously lectured on the virtues of financial stringency. As a result, the move to a closer
monetary union is actually driving Europeans further apart.
Thus the Italian Government of Romano Prodi has taken great pains and considerable political
risks to bring its budget in line with the Maastricht criteria. Yet German politicians and bankers
continue to cast doubt on Italy's long-term economic reliability, Germany's own budget deficit
and soaring unemployment notwithstanding.
This has led the Italians, along with Greeks and Spaniards, to suspect that the rigidity of the
terms for the euro have more to do with German domestic politics than any grand design for a
united continent. To many, the criteria seem little more than a device to keep Mediterranean
countries out of the monetary union as long as possible.
From the perspective of candidates for future membership in the European Union, the prospect
is equally depressing. Even if one or two former Communist states could technically qualify
for membership under the Maastricht rules today ( which is quite possible ) , they could not
continue to pursue the difficult economic and social transformations they have begun without
eventually increasing government spending of the sort precluded by the criteria.
The likely outcome is less a unified continent than a concentric series of European clubs, a
multiclass Europe that will nourish disagreements and resentments in years to come.
Finally, by defining a strong euro as the main objective of union, and pegging painful social
reforms and welfare cutbacks to that goal, Europe's leaders have played into the hands of
critics from the political fringes. All across Europe Brussels is now attacked by demagogues
as the symbol of rules and requirements that create local unemployment, cuts in government
service and economic stagnation.
Critics assert: We are the ones who stand for those who have no voice in Brussels, for voters
fearful of change ( and foreigners ) , for those who look closer to home for their security and
identity. We shall reassert the policy-making autonomy of the nation-state.
In France the extreme-right National Front and the Communists, together with various
dissident politicians who share their dislike for Europe, gained nearly 30 percent of the vote
on Sunday. In Austria the Freedom Party, a Europhobic group, has attracted voters from
social-democratic strongholds including Vienna, where it won a quarter of the votes in
municipal elections last year. If the painful budgetary reforms and tax increases adopted by
Italy's center-left coalition prove in vain and the country is kept out of the monetary union, an
angry reaction can be expected there, too. A t the very least we shall hear demands across the
continent for a social Europe rather than a monetary one -- the same vague promise that was
held out to French voters by the new Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, and is finding an eager
audience among Germany's floundering Social Democrats.
Likewise, it is only in some such social union that we can expect Tony Blair's Britain to play a
full part.
The lesson is clear. A European Union founded on a strong and inflexible currency -- the
extrapolation to the rest of the continent of the postwar German miracle -- is no longer
realistic or prudent.
An ever-closer union, of the kind that seemed so admirable and necessary in 1957 when the
Treaty of Rome was drawn up, may no longer be the best way to insure peace and stability in
Europe.
Melding the economies of countries as different as Austria and Britain, France and Portugal,
Sweden and Greece ( not to mention Poland or Hungary ) is both impossible and unwise:
Contrasting social and economic practices are born of longstanding political and cultural
differences that cannot be obliterated with the wave of a magic monetary wand.
There are alternative, less monolithic models of cooperation. The Swiss confederation, in
which real political authority and the power to make major economic decisions are shared
among autonomous regions, might be a more reassuring model.
If Europe is ever to move toward genuine cooperation in foreign policy and military
coordination, both of which require the active cooperation of sovereign states, then the union
will need to scale back both its rhetoric and its current monetary obsessions.
But what, some will ask, if global market forces make economic harmonization inevitable?
That, however, is the last lesson of the recent French election: Global market forces don't
vote.
Tony Judt directs the Remarque Institute at New York University.
Home | Sections | Contents | Search | Forums | Help
Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company
Mike Sheller wondering>(wondering):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Mike Sheller the future works>(the future works):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Speed needs advice>(needs advice):
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
Becky was on her deathbed, with her husband Tom at her side. He held her cold hand and tears silently streamed down his face. Her pale lips moved.
Tom, she said.
Hush, he quickly interrupted, don't talk.
But she insisted. Tom, she said in her tired voice. I have to talk. I must confess.
There is nothing to confess, said the weeping Tom. It's all right.
Everything's all right.
No, no. I must die in peace. I must confess, Tom, that I have been unfaithful to you.
Tom stroked her hand. Now Becky, don't be concerned. I know all about it, he sobbed. Why else would I poison you?
Bob A to speed>(to speed):
Tortfeasor Note for Ted>(Note for Ted):
panda @>(@):
TED @tort>(@tort):
panda @>(@):
Bob A. -- Most investors don't even know what the PGMs are, let alone what's happening there! If most investors new, I would be getting ready to sell out at multiple baggers. The mania will eventually come to this sector also. :- ) )
Speed @home>(@home):
bw Who owns the Gold?>(Who owns the Gold?):
I believe about six months before an audit of fort Knox takes place ( if it ever does ) we will see several stories in our free press. Sometime in the 1980's a gold eating rat will have been bred. In the early 1990's a rogue project will have ... well you can guess the rest.
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
RJ RJD@PACBELL.NET>(RJD@PACBELL.NET):
panda @disclaimer>(@disclaimer):
Organ Kitco Prices>(Kitco Prices):
Thanks, Organ
Speed waiting on my broker to wake up>(waiting on my broker to wake up):
Gotta go, back tomorrow or late tonight.
George S. Cole August gold>(August gold):
panda @>(@):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/05/y0026_z00_2.html
TED @JIN>(@JIN):
Scott .....!>(.....!):
What goes down will go up, and what goes up goes down.... Look at the gold decline as a count down for a launch into orbit as soon as the EMU is rectified. In the mean time...... BUY BUY BUY!
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Reify @announcement>(@announcement):
I believe it's one of Vronsky's regulars, on the Gold-Eagle, if I'm not mistaken. He supposedly is near term bearish on the markets. So what else is new?
Scott ....!>(....!):
Tortfeasor Re: Missile>(Re: Missile):
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
vrosnky Seven GoldenThreads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven GoldenThreads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html
Este Poor Kohl!>(Poor Kohl!):
Tortfeasor What have we here>(What have we here):
^XAU 10:25AM 100.19 +2.08 +2.12%
Not bad for a suckegg gold market
Reify @ SO?>(@ SO?):
According to our newcomer RJ- the answer is NO.
Tortfeasor Belated Bonus Joke>(Belated Bonus Joke):
A Sunday school teacher asked her class, Does anyone know
Jesus' Mother's name?
Susie raised her hand and said, It was Mary. The teacher
said, Very good Susie. Do you know Jesus' Father's name?
Little Johnny said, Yes, it was Virgil. the teacher asked how he
came up with her answer. He said, You know, Verg 'n Mary.....
George S. Cole XAU up 2%>(XAU up 2%):
panda @>(@):
Duncan N.A. Paladium (PDLCF)>(N.A. Paladium (PDLCF)):
impact on N.A. Paladium ( PDLCF ) ?
Scott ........!>(........!):
George s. Cole conservatives and liberals>(conservatives and liberals):
But what is a liberal or populist? Answer -- a conservative who has been laid off.
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor Update>(Update):
^XAU 10:36AM 101.17 +3.06 +3.12%
cyclist gold@platinum>(gold@platinum):
vronsky Intra-Day Charts>(Intra-Day Charts):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/intra-day.html
cyclist gold@platinum>(gold@platinum):
Nice retracement for abx and bgo.Time to go long.
bw usa treasury bills:>(usa treasury bills:):
Reify @VOLUME?>(@VOLUME?):
junior with a bad wiseguy accent>(with a bad wiseguy accent):
APH =================>(=================):
Duncan For John Disney>(For John Disney):
have on the stock should the price ( of gold ) rise significantly?
Duncan Panda / PDLCF>(Panda / PDLCF):
general to Duncan re PDLCF>(to Duncan re PDLCF):
is so thinly traded. I heard of it through the Silver and Gold
Report newsletter and bought shares on its recommendation. I
bought at 5.32 so I am still in the whole but getting closer to
break-even. Are you a share-holder? They also have made a
lot of investments into needed equipment/procedures which could
be impacting prices negatively short term. We may need that
general bull market before they get the attention they deserve.
Bob A PGMS>(PGMS):
RT @the pits>(@the pits):
Duncan To: General>(To: General):
With the prices where they are it looks a real bargain IMHO.
auroelf US Treasury web page>(US Treasury web page):
vronsky SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY, OR STAY & PLAY? TWISTERS AT BAY>(SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY, OR STAY & PLAY? TWISTERS AT BAY):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) @snooze time>(@snooze time):
1 am here!
news @for u>(@for u):
LONDON, June 5 ( Reuter ) - Soaring platinum and palladium
prices on a lack of available supplies dominated precious metals
trading on Thursday morning, traders said.
Palladium fixed at $235.00 per ounce, its highest fixing
since the twice-daily fix began in 1989 and its highest spot
price since early 1980.
Platinum, its sister metal, was fixed at $440, the highest
fixing since September 15, 1995.
``Things are very tight in the spot market. A big U.S. hedge
fund is holding 1.5 million ounces ( of palladium ) and who knows
when this will come on the market,'' a dealer said.
``Every participant who is short in palladium is being forced
to borrow,'' he added.
That need was sending borrowing rates -- especially for
between a day and a month -- to unprecedented levels.
``If you borrow overnight you have to pay more than 200
percent. And one-month lease rates are at 165 percent,'' he said.
Platinum one-month rates were 60 percent versus a regular
two-three percent.
``If the funds don't deliver, what will people who are short
do? Someone is squeezing palladium market and this raises legal
issues,'' the dealer said.
However a senior market source debunked any idea of
culpability. ``It maybe an ugly world but it is a free world and
the funds cannot be forced to put their metal back into the
market to relieve those who don't have any,'' the source said.
Compared with gold, platinum and palladium are very small
markets and are not blessed with overground stocks running into
tens of thousands of tonnes held by central banks.
``The funds have the ammunition to manipulate it and that is
what they are doing in conjunction with Russia's problems. It is
a sort of double whammy for the market,'' the source continued,
adding that if similar problems hit the gold market central
banks would come in.
Russia the largest exporter of palladium and the second
biggest supplier of platinum after South Africa, has been out of
the market this year due to administrative problems in Moscow.
This week it opened 1997 export talks with importers in
Japan, its biggest customer, and exports could begin on June 20,
according to Russian negotiators.
But the squeeze will take another couple of months to
unwind, according to dealers.
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Byron @ Where Does the Line Form?>(@ Where Does the Line Form?):
Byron @ ooops.>(@ ooops.):
RMW @the.mark>(@the.mark):
Short Bull (Midday Comments) @ APH you the man! -- XAU fakeout rally today>(@ APH you the man! -- XAU fakeout rally today):
and next week I plan to buy back at lower prices. The metals should
be higher tomorrow and they will probably make a temporary high tomorrow
for a small 3 day correction due to profit-taking...I actually said
profit-taking in regards to going long metals. The lack of rally in
gold also does not bode well for the XAU short-term.
What I think will drag down the XAU is the stock market. Since we
are rallying into Monday's Bradley point ( give or take 2 days ) . That
means today or Friday we could top out for a very much needed
correction. If I am wrong I will buy back with futures. In any case
I am selling out of both my 1/2 XAU position today ( Rydex Precious Metals
fund ) and out of my 1/2 position in NASDAQ 100 ( Rydex OTC ) and going
to cash.
If we get any kind of spike down tomorrow, early or late, I would rather
be playing in mutual funds rather than being long mutual funds and stuck
to a closing price. Just a bit of caution....
Byron @ Moving Up and Out:>(@ Moving Up and Out:):
Byron @ SEA:>(@ SEA:):
Byron @ SEA:>(@ SEA:):
Tortfeasor markets>(markets):
vronsky PLATINUM STOCKS>(PLATINUM STOCKS):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis.html
Tortfeasor For Ted>(For Ted):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
TED @tort>(@tort):
Byron @ Turkey Talk:>(@ Turkey Talk:):
cyclist platinum >(platinum ):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Duncan To: RMW>(To: RMW):
Byron @ Shooting Star:>(@ Shooting Star:):
cyclist time>(time):
George S. Cole gold bull>(gold bull):
Shortbull: I have no doubt you are an excellent trader but your philosophy of always going for small short-term gains practically GUARANTEES you will miss the big move when it comes. I too am far from sure this is the beginning of the long awaited bull, but am willing to hang in there until it comes. But we must all follow the investment strategy we are most comfortable with.
Byron @ What A Difference A Few Days Make:>(@ What A Difference A Few Days Make:):
cherokee @roller-coaster>(@roller-coaster):
are $60.00 each!!
this is how you stay and play with the big boys, you
can touch them, but they cannot touch you.
risk is set at time of option purchase. an entire year to
control 100 ozs. of gold for $60.00 + broker fee!!
this is a buy. these puppies will see the same action
as platinum and palladium are currently seeing.
buy one or two per month as they become available. this will
ensure you are in with both feet when the inevitable happens.
no guru can predict when, or how. these insurance policies ( cheap options )
are your guarantee of success in a market that is not subject to
normal supply and demand. when control is finally wrested from their taskmasters, it will be as if the west were opened for squatters again.
the stampede will be incredible, as billions of dollars begin flowing
from paper assets to tangible, physical assets. the available
warehoused stocks vs. the billions of dollars that will flow into
the metals, will cause the highest prices in history. options at $60.00
could easily command 100K or more! who cannot afford to invest $110.00
per month, for this kind of potential return? historically, this is a good bet. fundamentally, this is a good bet. technically, this is a
good bet.
sounds like a good bet to me, and rosen WILL PAY sooner, or later!!
my insurance policies are in effect in gold, silver, crude-oil, and
eurodollars.
you carry insurance policies on your property betting against the
elements, and man-made disasters. why not use the same technique
for futures? the only exception being, the tremendous POTENTIAL
for profit? let these cheap insurance policies PAY YOU. they will
pay, if you play, using YOUR mind to make YOUR own decisions.
who knows when all the ascribed to events ( that we all know are coming )
will actually arrive? your insurance policies will make you wealthy,
and help ROSEN to work for a living. the scavengers, and short sellers
will wake-up in a bottom-less pool of ink, with the LONG-finned sharks
rushing with gaping jaws, to their rescue!!!
cherokee!; ) driver of the smoke-signal-mobile, crusher-of-copper-bulls.
vronsky P-L-A-T-I-N-U-M>(P-L-A-T-I-N-U-M):
yellowdog @dreaming>(@dreaming):
BTW: how many of you are looking at platinum with amazement and closing your eyes wishing it was the yellow metal and if there will ever be a day we goldbugs ( at least the new ones ) will be able to sit back and gleefully watch our wealth multiply that rapidly. ( not RJ, thats for sure )
cyclist short@positions>(short@positions):
This forebodes high volatility when positions has to be covered,
Fireworks,you bet.This could become a hot June and July.
Next targets for July Platinum 450 and 480 in that order, with the spread
in the order of 100 /120.Gold would top out between 350 and 370.
bw A question:>(A question:):
I constantly read of 10% to 20% markups on jewellery sold in the mideast and asian markets. Perhaps our jeweller friends could tell us why the large markup here? Can you imagine the jewerlly demand here in the usa with even say a 50% markup? Perhaps someone does not want a gold demand component that even the central banks might have trouble filling at 350 an ounce. We are constantly told the global economy is bringing the benefits of global competition to all markets. This does not seem to be the case with gold jewerlly in this country. I wonder if Rubin et al have any insight on this?
ted butler default fears>(default fears):
While it is thought that CBs have much gold to lend, when they realize that they will not be repaid, they will move to call in their loans. Very few will come out whole.
It is also annoying, and I suppose par for the course, that the same story broached the subject of manipulation in the sharp rise for palladium. As is common knowledge, manipulation only exists to the upside. A related story at 12:26, listed the amount of palladium and platinum held in the U.S. Defense stockpile, as the shorts were starting to eye that as an answer to their ill-conceived shorts and loans - doesn't that make you feel good. Just a warm up for gold and silver.
MoreGold @Gold options>(@Gold options):
97/Dec Gold Calls. It's 1.80 per ounce. Dec/97's were 1.00 per ounce.
I agree with you this is a steal at current levels, even if Gold still hasn't bottomed?
The risk is losing your premium, and the upside is open......
Meryl Lynch, keep on writing those calls.....
Novice @NAP (North American Palladium) Time?>(@NAP (North American Palladium) Time?):
Hi Ted! Glad my goose made it to NDP heaven...
TED @cherokee>(@cherokee):
Byron @ Heads Up!!!>(@ Heads Up!!!):
MoreGold @calls>(@calls):
and Dec/97 call 370.-strike was 1.80.
lurker500 @fakeout or breakout-doesnt really matter>(@fakeout or breakout-doesnt really matter):
Byron @ Fall Out>(@ Fall Out):
To Ted @Barry 'fortucast' Rosen>(@Barry 'fortucast' Rosen):
Fortucast Market Timing, Inc. PO Box 2066 Fairfield, IA 52556 ( 515 ) -472-6866
ABOUT THE PUBLISHER
Barry Rosen, the founder of Fortucast Market Timing, began the service in
1987
with a monthly timing newsletter titled Investor's Fortucast. Mr. Rosen has
M.A.'s from the University of Illinois and Indiana University, and has taught
at the University of Iowa. Fortucast is registered as a CTA with the CFTC.
Barry advises nearly a thousand clients through hotlines, fax services and
newsletters.
Barry focuses on 23 markets in his publications, and his eclectic market
timing methodology includes Gann, Elliott Wave, and unique cyclical timing
devices based on the work of Gann. Barry has published numerous articles in
Trader's World, and the NCGR Journal on the relationships of geocosmic cycles
to timing the markets.
FORTUCAST MARKET TIMING--800-788-2796
Email address: fortcast@lisco.com
From: http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/fort0605.htm
Jack Silver>(Silver):
Yahoo article on Palladium ( June 4 6:13 PM EDT ) . Check
very end of it --talk in the past few days of a player
looking to borrow 50 million ounces of silver.
cyclist spot @gold>(spot @gold):
TED @toted>(@toted):
APH ================>(================):
APH ....>(....):
Duncan TED - ? @ Beach>(TED - ? @ Beach):
George S. Cole risk/reward ratios>(risk/reward ratios):
You are absolutely right about gold stock risk/reward ratios. They have never been better. For the big gold mutual funds such as FSAGX and FSPMX, I can see 200%-300% upside potential over the next 12-18 months if bullion goes to $500 as I expect,versus perhaps another 10% on the downside if bullion drops to $325 before taking off, which now seems very unlikely.
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
George S. Cole risk/reward ratios>(risk/reward ratios):
You are absolutely right about gold stock risk/reward ratios. They have never been better. For the big gold mutual funds such as FSAGX and FSPMX, I can see 200%-300% upside potential over the next 12-18 months if bullion goes to $500 as I expect, versus perhaps another 10% on the downside if bullion drops to $325 before taking off, which now seems very unlikely.
George s. Cole Big Trader>(Big Trader):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
For those unfamiliar with them damned options, try not ever to buy at market. Put in a bid and be willing to let it ride for awhile. Yday the offer was $470 per option, I put in a bid of $400 and was surprised to get a fill withing an hour. ... should have put in an even lower bid.
Richard Avikey@aol.com>(Avikey@aol.com):
nailz @BUY ME A BUNCH>(@BUY ME A BUNCH):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Earl:
The power of the Canadian Metric system has struck once more my friend. Decimal Trading coming to a stock near you !!
Next you'll be drinking LITRES rather than quarts of your favorite substances ...... BUT don't worry, a Litre is a hell of a lot bigger than any pint you've ever had !!!! ( :- ) )
TTFN
vronsky Preordained Precious Metals Implosion: GOLD & SILVER>(Preordained Precious Metals Implosion: GOLD & SILVER):
In light of the explosive rise of PLATINIM & PALLADIUM in recent days, it behooves us ALL to reread Guest Guru Ted Butler's extraordinary and daring letter actually sent to The Federal Reserve Board and The U.S. Treasury Department ( ATT: Greeenspan & Rubin ) . The letter is a lengthy indepth analyis of the Central Bank's dangerous and dubious practice of Gold Loans ( leases ) , and its eventual and inevitable dire financial consequences. In essence - and IMO - it is a FAST-FORWARD of what is in store for the GOLD and SILVER markets. To read his letter:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler414.html
BIG TRADER THOUGHTS!>(THOUGHTS!):
the ocean of her birth. They fear her no more. But a
great “Noble House” has come out of these waters
and it will not fail. Bring London’s problems to us, one
by one and they shall be dealt with.
If they have no fear then let them look behind as
South Africa has drawn her sword. Many will
soon loose their heads in a mad rush to find
“real gold”!
tarnished in out of the rain>(in out of the rain):
How's da weather?
Auric @home>(@home):
Speaking of Hong Kong, will they continue to have
their currency pegged to the US dollar?
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Anyway I know everyone wants to hear some great stories but to tell you the truth they have a fan at the exchange and it moves back and forth plowing air on the traders. Well I've caught myself a cold and I believe it is from this fan. COMEX moves to a new building after the July 4th holiday and someone said that they did not like the fans either but not to worry because when we move they we not be there. I was sniffling all day and felt awful.
So about Gold. I knew that the move was over extended yesterday but I did not expect such a big move overall. The fact that we closed on the highs above $345 bodes well for tomorrow. I'm not sure how high this is going, ( I'm sick and I'm going to bed early and I'll wake up early and figure it out then ) but my gut says maybe $1.50 or so and that is it. Also with platnuim up as much as it was no doupt that had an influence on Gold and I do not know platnuim that great but if it opens lower then the rally in Gold may have even less to go. I hate to sound like the commentators on CNBC but a close below $340 is very bearish and a close above $350.0 is bullish. I was able to catch some of the move up today when I saw the XAU up over 2 points and gold was only up $0.20 or so. It just hit me that the low had been made. Unfortuniotly I got out of my Long to quickly. Oh well, like I said I was feeling awful today. More this weekend.
vronsky BID TRADER IDENTIFIED!>(BID TRADER IDENTIFIED!):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Spud Master what a pile of nonsense>(what a pile of nonsense):
Spud
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
However, when put in the context of his entire piece, Oracle may be closer to the truth than many us may be willing to admit. Especially when we think about the clear manipulation in the gold market. Aided, abetted and encouraged by monetary authorities. An activity which we didn't even consider as a possibility until some months ago. Now we find such was indeed the case. And it is only one example, though closest to our hearts.
In short, the stakes are so high for nations and fiat monetary systems that only a fool would discount, out of hand, his final conclusions. It is truly a well thought out piece of work and a first rate read.
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
MoreGold @Moves>(@Moves):
Gold needs a couple of + $25. days.
Anythings possible - who would have thought 2.5 months ago when platinum was around 355. that it would be bidding $430. and asking $452.as it did today.
Keep the faith.....
RT @balanced budget>(@balanced budget):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
http://www.tradingtech.com/markets/METAL/gc65.html
lurker @the trader>(@the trader):
George S. Cole The Whites>(The Whites):
PRECIOUS METALS
Palladium market makers tried to establish order in their market. However,
we remain of the opinion that the end of an acute shortage of the rare white
metal, which has caused recent price swings, depends mainly on Russia
resuming delayed exports.
We have heard that that a measure to help the market forward rates will be
put in place, but only on a ``quote suggestion'' basis. Namely, there has
been no absolute contractual commitment determined as of yet. This measure
tries to address the issue of dealers who have stopped quoting forward rates
for palladium after the cost of borrowing skyrocketed to 300% for 1-month
delivery.
Out of interest, you should know that market-makers are under obligation to
quote spot rates; however, although they have traditionally done so, they do
not need to state forward rates for platinum group metals.
Market players borrow metal, rather than buy, when they think high prices
will not last -- an issue that could arise again either when Russia
re-starts exporting, or when speculative funds sell out their positions.
Lack of Russian supplies has been compounded by speculative buying by
investment funds. According to our sources, the U.S. Tiger Management Fund
holds 1.5 million ounces of palladium. However, funds have to maneuver this
situation very carefully, if they are to have a profitable position at all.
Indeed, they are reluctant to become sellers, since each time they have
offered small metal amounts, prices started to fall abruptly.
GFD The 8th Thread>(The 8th Thread):
The reunification of Hong Kong does have considerable patriotic meaning to China as it redresses an ancient humiliation. What is not so widely known is the fact that China was also forced to accept foreign currency rather than gold for it's exports at that time - another humiliation.
Now suppose we have the one world currency shaping up and whatever else the Chinese may think of it they know that it will not be a Chinese currency. They will most likely look at this as an attempt to pre-empt or mitigate the emergence of a dominant Chinese economy in the 21st century by western interests.
One response would be to ignore or opt out of the plans afoot. But a more satisfying approach perhaps would be to hijaack those plans. Suppose that what triggers the hypothetical financial apocolapse required for a one world currency is an explosion in the price of gold. And suppose the one world currency is a gold backed Yuan.
This is one scenario that would explain exactly what Big Trader may really be up to with his allegedly massive accumuation of physical gold.
tarnished @Dinghy _Vision.com>(@Dinghy _Vision.com):
and the Wings win again, however a loss would make fer a better series.
As long as Stevie pulls a couple points.
You should take Ediot to a game, maybe we'll get lucky and he'll take a slapshot to the head, might even hear his two brain cells bump one another!
tarnished @Dinghy_Vision.com>(@Dinghy_Vision.com):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
TED @Spudmaster>(@Spudmaster):
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
help me out ( even all you lurkers - I'll even withhold your name from
anything you send me ) .
The standard reason given for the out-months in PA being less then June
is that the supply will be available then. I say so what!! The supply
is fine right now for the right price. Why would anyone think
Russia is going to sell their PA for less in two or three months? Debeers is the perfect example for them. They keep the supply of the
product at just the right level to get their price.
This whole arguement is only valid if Russia has PA to sell - which I'm
not convinced of anyway. But assuming they do - why do people think
they are going to sell it fo
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
help me out ( even all you lurkers - I'll even withhold your name from
anything you send me ) .
The standard reason given for the out-months in PA being less then June
is that the supply will be available then. I say so what!! The supply
is fine right now for the right price. Why would anyone think
Russia is going to sell their PA for less in two or three months?
Debeers is the perfect example for them. They keep the supply of the
product at just the right level to get their price.
This whole arguement is only valid if Russia has PA to sell - which I'm
not convinced of anyway. But assuming they do - why do people think
they are going to sell it for $170 in September? When they can get $200+
in June.
Is this a case where the money is just sitting in the corner waiting for
someone to come over and pick it up? Mr. Rogers?
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
1. Those events ocurred little more than 100 years ago. That is far from ancient history in a western sense and even more certainly in a Chinese context. After all, the age of Confucious was 3500 years ago and his influence is as palpable as if it were yesterday.
2. In addition to the other offenses you outlined, the British were also responsible for the introduction of opium into China. To the Brits it was one helluva profitable venture. The Brits were committed to continuing the enterprise and the Chinese protested. To no avail. In end, the Chinese found no other avenue to its discontinuance and subsequently rebelled.
Your comments make a lot of sense.
Hawk @Inco>(@Inco):
Seems that Inco wants to create a shortage in metals.
Inco is one of the biggest mines in Canada. ( nickel & copper )
With a lot of talk of shortages in metals including gold already, there is going to be massive amounts of information about the effects of this strike from the media.
The whole city is driven by Inco's money.
Approx. 5000 workers on strike. This strike could spark the metals.
The workers have been out 2 days now and with the XAU's activity today, could it be because of the strike at INCO?
Inco publicaly announced that they want to create a shortage to boost their share value.
I feel all metals are getting lots of news creating hunger pains in the investors.
ALL ABOARD!!!!
TED @stanleycup>(@stanleycup):
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Little Pete @tarnished>(@tarnished):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
boost their share value.
Could you post the pertinant article?
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Since you're usually right about everything else I'll take your judgement on rthis one and give Ted 2-1 odds. ( Of course if you pick Detroit he still won't take the odds! )
6pak MAI @ Canada>(MAI @ Canada):
Although MAI was scheduled for ratification by the USofA Senate this fall, it has not yet been released to the public. It has been drafted virtually in secret over the last two years and has had almost no coverage in the press. ( Canada election, not mentioned )
http://world.std.com/~dadams/MAI/
The government wants it signed and the less said about it the better.
One section references, something about not allowing free-for-all investment to hurt too much. ( Gold, maybe eh! )
Also: No sovereign government ( for next 15 years ) would have the right to give any regulatory advantage to the firms that are based in that government's own country.
The MAI agreement, negotiated queitly by government and trade representatives of the 29 richest nations, is designed to free the flow of investment capital and profits.
Well guys, what will this do for gold. Are we in a free market. The rules have changed, how will one, take advantage of such happenings.
Haw @Inco>(@Inco):
I saw it on CBC news at 6:00 pm. The news segment also talked about the economic impact on Sudbury Ont.
A long strike is very possible. No talks are scheduled.
Workers were also interviewed. They want some of the big INCO dollars.
Inco has not offered a wage increase. Only better pension plan.
Hawk @inco>(@inco):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Byron @ Finally the Ninth:>(@ Finally the Ninth:):
Hawk @home>(@home):
What's the cup made ofAnyone know?
Bob @...HK$ to become Yuan ?>(@...HK$ to become Yuan ?):
Cheers.
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
D.A. wild.times>(wild.times):
Last I heard a few minutes back platinum was up to around $475. Pa is $225 bid. The forward, lending and option markets have completely shutdown. Cash market spreads are $20 wide in platinum and $10 wide in Pa. Small amounts of metal can move the market a long way. There are a lot of very stressed out people. The biggest losers in the Pa market are going to be the commercial users. I know of a midsize refiner that is plum out of metal and needs to turn it into catalytic converters. We may not be too far away from the point where the politicians get involved. If GM wakes up one morning and finds that the assembly lines must grind to a halt because of no Pa it will be quite interesting. My guess is that sometime within the next month or two there will be a workout between Tiger Fund and the big commercial users of Pa. Until this happens the markets will be totally wild. Never underestimate how far out of hand these things can get. As I guessed a week or two back the next run is going on in Pt because this is the only substitute for Pa. It is looking more and more like the Russians are done with stockpile sales and will only deliver from current production. If this is the case about 2.0 MM ounces of demand will have to be rationed through price. This will keep the price of Pa high for many moons to come. Right now people believe that this is a squeeze that is a short blip and will terminate soon and things will get back to some semblance of order and prices will retreat sharply. This is clearly evidenced by the Sept Pa futures trading $50 below spot. If there is a sharp selloff when Tiger comes to terms or the Russians begin delivering, buy it. The Palladium stocks are great buys hear because no one believe this rally has legs.
Just got a call that the Platinum, and Palladium are shut down. No dealers making markets, last Platinum $525 bid. Got to run. More Later.
Byron @ LIMITS:>(@ LIMITS:):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
6pak Team @ isn't playing>(Team @ isn't playing):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
WW @New England>(@New England):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
6pak MAI Knowledge @ If interested>(MAI Knowledge @ If interested):
http://www.essential.org/monitor/mai/contents.html
Privatization item:
http://www.essential.org/monitor/mai/two.html#privatization
Alternative 2
# 56 [ Special share holding arrangements including, inter alia,
a ) The retention of Goldenshares by Contracting Parties,
b ) Stable shareholder groups assembled by Contracting Parties,
c ) management/employee buyouts, and
d ) ** voucher schemes for members of the public **
hold strong potential for discrimination against foreign investors and are, infact, inconsistant with National Treatment and MFN treatment obligations in many instances ]
Canada,Germany,United Kingdom,Sweden,Spain,Czech Republic,France,Japan,
UsofA,Norway, Hungary etc.
Duncan S.A. Hedging - the KEY>(S.A. Hedging - the KEY):
1 ) The unemployment rate in South Africa is in the order of 40% ( thats right, forty ) .
2 ) The gold mines are an important source of employment - a not insignificant number are employed by 'marginal mines' i.e., mines where mining costs are around or below the ruling gold price. It is clearly important to keep these marginal mines operating to prevent a deterioration in the employment situation - this would exacerbate the crime and violence in the country which is already of heroic proportions. HENCE HEDGING. The hedging in turn causes the depressed gold price - somehow, prevailing 'forces' ( who or whatever these forces are unknown to me ) have determined a price range of 340 to 350.
The question is - will the South Africans take the risk ( of the cessation of gold hedging ) ? Possible outcomes:
1 ) Gold price rises rapidly and prevents mine closures.
2 ) Continued Central Bank sales nullify effect of cessation of South African hedging activities - gold price remains depressed leading to mine closures - the ensuing deterioration in the employment situation may well result in social mayhem ( in South Africa ) .
Will South Africa stop the hedging? I don't know - do any of you?
NJ wild times>(wild times):
Paul Friend of Duke's>(Friend of Duke's):
Surely must be that California merlot. Or perhaps your holding some
palladium you forgot to tell us about?
Strad Master PA & PL to the moon!>(PA & PL to the moon!):
D.A. watching.in.disbelief.and.awe>(watching.in.disbelief.and.awe):
I'm getting more and more bullish on gold as the days go by. I will still wait for a signal from my system, but when I see one I will jump big. Whats going on in the white metals is symptomatic of the gigantic transition that is underway. As has been documented here over the last several days, the swing of the political pendulum is gathering great momentum. Just when central banks should be on the alert for world wide syncronous growth with attendant inflation risks they are being politically bludgeoned. Their hands are tied and the blindfolds are in place. Combine this with 17 years of deflationary expectations which have caused inventories to be considered useless baggage and you have a very volatile brew. I don't know if the white metal move will be the catalyst but it may well be. If it comes to GM having to shut down production or come to terms with Tiger fund, a very large light bulb is going to go off in the minds of many purchasing managers throughout the world. The point that inventories have real economic value is going to be driven home in spectacular fashion. This may cause a fevered restocking which will drive commodity prices and growth wild. This will also be the death knell for the financial markets. Somewhere in the ensuing melee the yellow metal will catch fire. Where as the Palladium market can accomodate very few players and very little money, we all know that the gold market can be accessible to the masses. If it rises they will come. Reading today's posts their is such a feeling of gloom here about gold and the XAU that it is a lock that gold is going higher now. Forget $340. No way. This bull market started a few months back at $336. The first good leg is about to get underway. We are going to put the precious back into these metals.
tarnished @Dinghys on ice>(@Dinghys on ice):
The Flyers never had the lead!
TED @tarnished>(@tarnished):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
panda @review>(@review):
AIG International denies rumor of default on NYMEX Palladium.
That headline was posted at 12:42 P.M. E.D.T. by Dow Jones. Is this twilight zone stuff or what?
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
tarnished @Dinghy on ice>(@Dinghy on ice):
6pak true @ true>(true @ true):
Now, Agents abound, conspiracy is rampant, Trade Agreements, Central Banks, International Bankers, on and on, Hell, I thought I would use due diligence, and investigate the potential of Gold, as an investment. Then it leads to Government, and crack pots, drugs, manipulation. etc.
Gold is not easy to understand. Nor, are those that follow the Gold, and all of its ramifications. Seven Months at this site, and I am getting
frustrated. There appears to be many more questions, then answers.
I get myself on the wrong side of the moves in Gold. But, that is the design of those that control this metal eh ! ha, ha, ha,
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
panda @?>(@?):
MoreGold @Let this be it !>(@Let this be it !):
What will the exchanges do tomorrow? I would assume some traders are
sitting on some large short positions, thinking this rally isn't for real.
This reminds me of an incident @ 4 months ago when a friend wanted to
buy 3 ozs. of platinum at a large retail precious metals dealer. The said they had 1 oz. in stock and couldn't say when they would get more.
The bar charge was $40. above spot.
I wonder how many bars you could find tomorrow.....
Platinum is @ 23 times as rare as Gold, and could have a long way to go yet. To top things off the boom in PC sales is causing more demand as
platinum is required in chip manufacture.
Looks like Gold is the poor mans platinum for now, but for how much longer?
I was going to hold off on buying more Gold calls, hoping for a pullback
but I may jump the gun tomorrow. Merrill Lynch, get ready to write some
more calls........
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
D.A. caveat.trader>(caveat.trader):
My thoughts on Pa are that if you own it you are long Sept futures since I doubt you are messing around in the deliverable. If I held this position I would just sit tight. Even if the spot gets sold off I don't think anything bad is going to happen to Sept. If the spot gets sold off and Sept goes down I will be buying with both hands. Right now I'm trying to manage our load in the spot market. We have sold out about 2/3 of our position. We are very, very, happy.
On the Platinum side I'm guessing that you're in July. I have absolutely no idea what is going on here although we hold a small position. Its likely to be limit up on the open tommorrow. Since this will be $50 in two days it might be nice to book a profit. Tonight's action from what I hear is being driven by delta hedging against open option positions. Platinum has a long history of major spike reversals. It would be a pity to watch a huge move evaporate. Then again it might go straight to $600. In short, I don't know. I'll try to keep you updated on the cash market, but right now there isn't one. Most odd.
Whatever you do, don't play these things from the shortside, not even for a minute. No sense dying trying to be a hero. The playing field is currently littered with the bodies of would be heros.
Sorry I haven't replied to your email but I've been in around the clock mode of late. All is well with my family.
Best Regards,
D.A.
keva @westcoast>(@westcoast):
P.R. !!!!!!!!!!!!!>(!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Bid price for platinum $500 this moment! Who said yesterday $100 gold/platinum spread?
Oh, I did. Sorry I underestimated. July platinum $554 at last glance, backwardization is severe.. Got out at $448, missed a couple bucks at the top but maybe there will be some profit taking tomorrow. I’ll do it again next week. Palladium bounced off $200 like a cement floor. My $204 looked pretty good at $227 in London overnight. I kept it anyway. Strong support in New York today. Palladium will gap up tomorrow. What did I say yesterday? $250 by Friday? Lease rates have reached 300%. The Russian government has suspended all fuel shipments to Norilsk. How will long suffering miners dig ore, process ore, and smelt ore with no fuel? Do you think this move was designed to drive palladium to new highs? Only the Russians have consistently demonstrated the finesse required to simply talk a market up or down. Dare I say, palladium has an outside chance of going higher than gold Those of us with the courage of our convictions are riding a righteous crest unmindful of the remaining doubts of risk gnawing the bones of our more sensible selves.
They heard me in the silver pits and responded nicely with an 11 cent trading day. Did anyone cover your gold at $339.50? Look for a bounce in sympathy with the PGMs and sell it into the basement anywhere above $346. Don’t fight the central banks. They are your friends. Do what they do. It’s easy.
Not since Tyson Foods teamed up with Hillary have industrial traders had such rotten luck. Seas of woe in Japan tonight. The lifeboats are showing no freeboard. An ocean of losses in uncovered shorts is lapping over the sides as these woebegone disbelieves of the palladium storm grimly squish their cold and wrinkled toes inside their Nikes. They will gaze at the horizon and remember fondly a time before the world turned upside down so quick. A time when up was a kinder direction. These are good men. These are brave men, whose only sin was to bite the snake once too often. The worm is out of the tunnel. The hog has turned.
vronsky A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY: A GOLD BACKED YUAN ( Renminbi)>(A SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY: A GOLD BACKED YUAN ( Renminbi)):
A Virtual Eagle’s eye view of the global gold panorama. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? With the expected economic dominance of China in the 21st Century, could it be a Gold backed Yuan ( Renminbi ) An Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html
panda @contract.review>(@contract.review):
There is no limit during the current delivery month. Wow! I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that trade!
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
vronsky PRECIOUS METALS ORBITAL >(PRECIOUS METALS ORBITAL ):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
SimpleMan faraway.com>(faraway.com):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
DK TREND IS A FRIEND>(TREND IS A FRIEND):
RJ I AM WITH YOU. I'M SELLING MY JULY XAU CALL 100'S AT MARKET AND AUG GOLD 360'S IF I CAN GET FILLED WITH A LITTLE DIGNITY. THE PGM'S ARE THE PLAY AND I CANT DO ANY WORSE THAN I HAVE OVER THE LAST YEAR. PLABUG HMMMM
Option Man totally predictable>(totally predictable):
Volatility on the other hand is ABSOLUTELY predictable! Right now its very high in the PL market. ( So what else is new ) IT WILL GO DOWN! This is an undeniable fact. At some point the PL mkt will settle back to the boring trading ranges of before. Maybe it'll be in the 360-365 range. Maybe in the 490-500 range, makes no difference because the volatility will be way, way down.
I shorted OCT 440 PL calls today taking in $9.00 per oz premium. I will buy them back WHEN, not if, the fluctuations cool down. This is the easiest way to consistently make money in this market and I can't beleive no one's said anything.
WARNING !! -------- Selling naked calls leaves you no less exposed than shorting the contract outright.
WW @New England>(@New England):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
ACW Bigfind>(Bigfind):
June 6 1997
NORTH AFRICA
Mountain find sparks gold fever in
Egypt
BY CHRISTOPHER WALKER
GOLD fever hit Egypt yesterday after official confirmation of
the surprise discovery of huge deposits in an inhospitable and
remote range of hills on the border with Libya.
There is no other discovery like this in Egypt. In fact, it
could be considered a rare discovery on the world level,
Gaber Naeim, chairman of the Geological Survey of Egypt,
told the semi-official Cairo daily al-Akhbar.
The gold is in Jabal Kamel, a rocky outcrop close to the
point where the borders of Egypt, Libya and Sudan meet.
According to Mr Naeim, its quantity dwarfs all other gold
deposits found in the country of 60 million people, the most
populous in the Arab world.
After the controversy surrounding recent exaggerated
reports of gold finds in Indonesia, diplomatic and industry
sources remained wary of assessing the significance of the
Egyptian discovery until more precise data were made
available by the Cairo Government. It is too early to say
what effect, if any, this will have on the world market, one
diplomat said.
Even before the discovery put Egypt's economic prospects
into a new light, one foreign company, Pharaoh Gold Mines
of Australia, was prospecting for gold in the Eastern Desert
and planned to start production there in the middle of this
year. Six other companies were negotiating for concessions
to prospect for gold, either in the Eastern Desert or in
southern Sinai, territory recovered from Israel under the
1979 peace treaty.
The riches buried deep under Jabal Kamel came to light after
the survey sent geologists to the area to look for iron-ore
deposits. They were taken aback to find that there was more
gold than iron in the rock.
The idea was that the gold could cover part of the large
costs of exploiting the iron ore and transporting it out of this
remote area. But it later became clear that the gold was
fundamental and the iron was subsidiary, Mr Naeim said.
He gave no figures for the concentration of gold in the 185
samples his department has taken in two seasons of
exploration.
But he said: The results showed that the concentration of
gold in the ore is extremely high and that the amount of ore
itself is also extremely high.
The newly found deposits are in a range of hills seven to
eight miles long and six miles across. The seams are between
13ft and 250ft thick. Under the surface of the Earth, there is
another deposit, the size of which is not yet known, Mr
Naeim said. The extent of the unexpected discovery in the
mountains sparked interest throughout the Middle East, with
experts anxious to obtain more detailed figures.
Mr Naeim said that some of the gold was inside Libya and
that Egypt had signed a deal with the Libyan authorities
specifying there should be joint exploitation of the deposits
on the border.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
MM @WW>(@WW):
Chris @erols>(@erols):
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
seven hours ( prices ) per day, for ten days.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969/aghr.gif
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
ACW:
Can you imagine if they actually drilled into someone's tomb below ground and that's why there's more gold that other metals....
Earl,... with Mooney thinking the Flyers were going to be hot, did you invite him over to help with the Litre stuff? I think he's had more than his share. And here I thought he knew his hockey. NOTHING can stop the guy from Ottawa Stevey Y !!!! ( :- ) )
TTFN
Terry @ Canada jane.treweeke@osg.net>(jane.treweeke@osg.net):
From ABN news room at 6 June 1997 @ 1100hrs
China stops bank money into bourses...
China has unveiled plans to halt the flow of bank funds into the stock market and set a deadline for commercial banks to unwind positions on the markets. Reports say commercial banks must stop trading treasury debt repurchase agreements on the nation's two stock exchanges from today. The move is part of previously announced measures aimed at limiting financial risk. Those measures also aim to protect the banking system which has recently pumped huge amounts of cash into China's stock markets. The central bank has also banned overdrafts used for buying stocks and asked each commercial bank to investigate its own activities to ensure they are complying with regulations.
Copyright © 1996 Asia Business News. All Rights Reserved.
WONDERING ABOUT BART @HOW YA DOIN'>(@HOW YA DOIN'):
You buy and sell the PGMs and gold and silver.
Please tell us how these lease rates are effecting your buisness and are you seeing the same thing ( developing ) in Gold and silver?
Regards
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
For those of you turned off by my typos in the previous postings, What can I say? I was on a roll. Who has time to proofread? Stream of consciousness, no editing, posted immediately. I rely too heavily on my spell check. If you had trouble reading my little gold ditty ( I certainly did ) Here is a slightly more coherent version. These are the first messages I have ever posted to this or any other group.
June 5,1997 00:26
Look for the Russians to announce resumption of palladium shipments next week with barely enough to under satisfy current demand. Every major price move in the last two months has been preceded by announcements from Russia. Forget about production or stockpiles, they have been sellers at the highs - announce everything is OK, supplies will meet demands, and buyers at the lows - silence or cautious optimism. Who needs to produce palladium when you can pay for your low priced deliveries with massive profits from your shorts? This has been one of the most beautifully manipulated markets I have seen in the last decade. $250 palladium is a lock, probably by Friday. There will be Japanese traders jumping out of windows tonight when they find it next to impossible to cover shorts. Profit taking ( finally ) will not take it below $200. look for $275 before the month is out. For those of you worried about stockpiles, they are nearly nonexistent - 2 years max. Norilsk is operating at 25% tops. Unpaid miners dig with broken machinery. Western money is too spread out to even begin to rebuild infrastructure. Only those with hot blood and money to burn will play palladium. For those of you looking for a real play, look for platinum to repeat the 1986 - 1990 levels. The $420's will be a distant memory of bargain basement levels by August. Can platinum top $500 and stay there for awhile? Not the first time, nor the second, but it can and will. South Africa can smell the money and they will come out to play soon. $450 in June. Save this message and remember you were advised in advance.
June 5, 1997 01:48
PS
Silver will take a run at $5.00 in the next couple weeks, if it breaks through, $5.40 soon. Gold is done for this year. $350 is screaming short and $325 may not be the low, but I doubt it will break $300. I have traded enough gold in my time to think it deserves a descent Christian burial, but that will just create a martyr. Instead, I will be respectful and kind and lay piles of straw at the bottom for a hopefully soft landing. A dear friend, so injured now, can still draw from afar, resources to breathe life where little resides, but enough to always not ignore. I know there are numerous markers out there that we may collect for the sickly yellow lass as we set heR gently on the straw. We will hear her stories and pat her nuggets. With a blown kiss and encouragement to rest easy tonight, we will depart for business.
We will sell her for her beauty,
We will sell her for her class,
We will sell her because she is
Our little golden lass.
One day true
we may buy
But for the life of us all
Who among us knows why?
I trade millions every week ( my clients $, not my own ) in the three beautiful metals with some rolls of the dice in palladium. I speak with traders on the floor, and traders up above. When I have concerns over near term disruptions in supply, We are more likely to be found having lunch and a game of darts in some mock pub with the South African Ambassador. It's nice to know what they think, and our understanding of their thoughts carry less self service than any other who propose to love and cherish through good and bad.
I’m a new guy here but I trade lots-o-metals every day. I have read these postings off and on for months with nary a desire to post but I'm having too much fun and see too much ahead to remain silent. I count among my brethren those who were compelled to buy platinum and short gold on that magical day last December when platinum dipped below gold. My true brothers were not fooled by platinum tracking gold dollar for dollar and held, and held, and hold until today when they will hold some more. $75 spread is not nearly enough to reward the courage it took to stay. Gold/platinum spread will rise to $100. It's still a play, but with some of the bottom gone, a slightly more meager one, albeit with acceptable returns. What the hell, the risk is almost nonexistent. I know I am a guest in this group, and as such I will comport myself with dignity and hope to have the same extended to me. Please do not confuse my enthusiasm and confidence for arrogance.. There comes a time in which our introduction to the world cements certain expectations. We will talk of those next time.
RJ
PPS.
This is what I do for a living. Only metals, I love It. I have personally moved the market recently. 10,000 oz in a market as thin as palladium becomes a market of it’s own. Let me know if you need a no Real time, real world, no BS take on the market
June 5, 1997 02:51
Yellowdog,
It's simple. Gold will decline, silver will rise. Don't be shocked, it happens all the time. Especially with the twin specters of German & Swiss central banks wanting to re-value their gold reserves. This is all preparatory to some actual gold sales from these major countries this year. Look out for France and England. Forget about price ratios, forget about inflation or any other thing on the rest of the earth. If you believe that European central banks will forever cap gold this year, look to place some shorts. This voodoo accounting from the Swiss and Germans have cast a profane and ugly pall over the gold market. Yes! Silver will rise - gold will fall...... The best of both worlds..... show me the $.
Jun 5, 1997 03:08
There is no more a relationship between gold and the PGMs. One is trading with a dark cloud overhead with worries of convictions of high crimes and misdemeners. Silver is overdue for another .60 run. The PGMs are operating on their own fundamentals. Forget about gold and silver this time around. The current short squeeze in the PGMs is unprecedented, so we will continue to see lower gold and higher silver. You've got to believe!!!!! did you believe in peanut butter?
June 5, 1997 08:08
RE: Wall Street Journal palladium lease rates at 150%: As usual, if the WSJ prints it, it's old news. 150% was last week. 260% last night, who knows today? But what's in a lease rate when no one will lend? The mother of all short squeezes could only be in it's infancy. It will be brutal in New York today. Now we're having fun................
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
Mooney @.TED>(@.TED):
I need a shirt I need a shirt>(I need a shirt):
Mooney @.Ted>(@.Ted):
Mike @>(@):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
digger just@test>(just@test):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
DK going for broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!>(going for broke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!):
RJ How would you play the PGM market friday with $38,000. risk funds?
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
You are living a once in a lifetime dream right now.
July Silver closed today above its 18 day MA. Combine that with the
increase in the lease rates and I'm buying in the morning. It will be
my first silver contract. I guess you could call me a silver virgin
right now.
PL is a substitute for PA. Using a multiplier of 0.6 I think I rememeber
reading here. If the autos can't get PA - they will be buying PL. July PL
still has 3 to 4 weeks until 1st notice. I wonder how many of the paper
PA players jumped to PL last week? Figuring the demand would move to the
more liquid market. I'm learning more everyday - I love this game.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
Also, I mentioned a few days ago what I thought years ago
EMU is a dog that won't hunt. So it is dead. Buy gold accordingly.
Don't worry whether or not current prices are at the low.
How long of a base line do you need? We'll see 450 gold
in the not too distant future.
Time for my warm milk and beddy by.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
to Ark to Ark>(to Ark):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
DK I quit>(I quit):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
If gold stumbles above $346 I recommend a small caliber bullet behind the left ear. The gold's ear, not yours. We should be well understood in this world. I have been accused, however, of torturing my metaphors.....It's a curse.
tarnished @salvos from Dinghy>(@salvos from Dinghy):
'night all...you too Ted,and try picking a winning team for a change!
I think that slip in the ocean shrank more than just one organ!
DK good night>(good night):
DK cant spell>(cant spell):
Six times WW You haven't seen anything yet>(You haven't seen anything yet):
SO you think that WW was bad; just you wait HeHeHeHe.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
WWWWWWWWWWWWW thirteenw's@www.www>(thirteenw's@www.www):
Mark my wwwwwwords.
Nothing could be better than thirteen W's.
Test @test>(@test):
This is probably a very dumb question, but if BT is
right, and gold has,in effect, been cornered ( as the
PA market may be ) what does that do to gold mining
stocks? Do they take off like a rocket also?
Thanks.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
The only way gold will jump $10 is with a knee in the ribs and a stomp on the foot. Or maybe I misunderstood soon... On a tectonic scale......
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Goldbug 234513 HEY RJ>(HEY RJ):
HEY RJ: Your ( 23:15 ) describes your true talent.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
You are a gentleman and I truly feel welcomed.
Auric @To buy or not to buy>(@To buy or not to buy):
I must admit, I am probably in over my head here,
but it seems we have BT ( if he, they are real ) Ted
Butler, and Oracle on one side and RJ on the other.
Is this play entering its final act?
Ron Overnight Move>(Overnight Move):
After reading Cherokee's post today, I'm going to call my broker tomorrow and place an open order bid of $50 for a Dec98 call with a $370 strike. Let's see just how low those crazy guys at Merrill Lynch'll go! Hope the order desk doesn't scream at me for wasting their time. If it gets filled I'll be kicking myself: I paid a LOT more for some Dec97 360s a while back. If I have to bid $60 later to get a fill, fine. It's the sort of UNBELIEVABLE price that could tempt a fellow to ante up his whole wad!
Re silver: What do traders here think of buying some Dec97 450 silver puts when the underlying goes to about $490 or so ( the puts will be real cheap then ) , and then waiting for the metal to fall back to the 460-465 area before going long? Is it a good way to minimize your insurance costs for going long? Is there a problem with liquidating both positions simultaneously if silver goes against you?
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
the present. But it doesn't have to be that way. Locking in a price
for the future can be dealt with. If GM or Intel know they need PA in
Sept or Dec, not locking in a price today now is moranic! They are not
in the metal trading business.
Sadly, I have seen enough to know they will continue to speculate in
the markets and not lock in prices. No one will lose their job over a
few 100K or a million or two. Someday, 1 company will figure out what
business they are in and do it right.
Didn't Dell lose millions in currency trading a year or two ago and they
assemble personal computers. Go figure.
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
Why do you think put options will be cheap after a 20/30 cent run up?
Volatility increases the price of options.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Auric @on the one hand..>(@on the one hand..):
RJ: I should have put that a little better. I am
basically a layman in here. I meant that two
opposite conclusions seem to have been reached with
respect to gold. I admit, you made an impressive
call. I am just trying to sort it out.
Ron Silver>(Silver):
Ron !>(!):
MURRSTEIN & GINSBERG POSITIONS-POSITIONS>(POSITIONS-POSITIONS):
WERE SHORT RIGHT NOW AT THE 60th FLOOR, WE WOULD BE LOOKING FOR THE NEAREST WINDOW.
MURRSTEIN & GINSBERG POSITIONS-POSITIONS>(POSITIONS-POSITIONS):
WERE SHORT RIGHT NOW AT THE 60th FLOOR, WE WOULD BE LOOKING FOR THE NEAREST WINDOW.
MURRSTEIN & GINSBERG SUB IQ SPELLING>(SUB IQ SPELLING):
Test @test>(@test):
M&G: ARE YOU REFERRING TO GOLD?
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
Current prices provide graphic example of best entry
Durban Deep - DD trading 4.75$. Blyvoor trades 2.5$
You SHOULD get ( check your broker ) One DD for 1.67
( 5/3 ) blyvoor. 2.5 * 1.67 = 4.17$ rather than 4.75. Now
if you go via blyvoor, You will not get the half a
new DD option ( striking 60 expiry 2002 ) . However,
I doubt if you would get that anyway via ADR. They
normally auction these kinds of things in the worst
way possible for the shareholder, so I would attach
no value to the option piece. Thus enterring via
blyvoor has a 12% advantage over buying DD. But check
with your broker ( who may not know where South Africa is )
to make sure.
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
GO GOLD, GOOOO GO>(GO):
How far is spot Au from busting its 100 and 200 day M.A
A strong advance over this line could lead to the mother of all short covering rallies in gold..., as short after short tries to cover!
Go Gold, GOOO
Aly aveerman@sas.ab.ca>(aveerman@sas.ab.ca):
D.A. spilling.over>(spilling.over):
To quote my late night desk funds are buying silver like they've never seen it before. Its up about 20 cents from NY close. The sharks are smelling blood. Don't get eaten. Don't short anything thats is bright, lustrous, and a good conductor of heat and electricity.
Gold @left out>(@left out):
Hey, fellas, take me along too!
The Crusher @Going Nuts >(@Going Nuts ):
Pull those shorts down and squeeze this bear by the
balls until he squeals!
Duncan Earl - 22:57>(Earl - 22:57):
- I am not in the same league as you chaps, but do know a little of the
South African situation. It would appear to me that the Central Banks are
in a no-lose situation with respect to their loans - presuming they lend
no more gold to hedging mines than they have in the ground.
Mike Sheller @the feet of the Oracle>(@the feet of the Oracle):
Mike Sheller Egypt Me!>(Egypt Me!):
panda @>(@):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0023_z00_3.html
panda @>(@):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0023_z00_4.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/impay_rpa_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0023_z00_10.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0023_z00_12.html
panda @it.just.gets.better!>(@it.just.gets.better!):
Auric @This is more like it>(@This is more like it):
Panda: I gave up reading Ludlum and Clancy since I
came to this site. It's like reading a damn spy
novel and looking at a crystal ball all at once.
Exciting stuff, eh?
Tortfeasor Joke of the morning>(Joke of the morning):
For those unfamiliar, Welfare payments are made in the US to
individuals and families with income below a certain level.
The following quotations are taken from actual letters received
by the Welfare Departmentin applications for support of
receiving payments.
1. I am forwarding my marriage certificate and 6 children.
I had seven but one died which was baptised on a half sheet
of paper.
2. I am writing the welfare department to say that my baby
was born two years old. When do I get my money?
3. Mrs. Jones has not had any clothes for two years and
has been visited regularly by the clergy.
4. I cannot get sick pay. I have six children can you tell me why?
5. I am glad to report that my husband who is missing is dead.
6. This is my eighth child. What are you going to do about it.
7. Please find for certain if my husband is dead. The man I am
now living with can't do anything until he knows.
8. I am very much annoyed to find out that you have branded my son
illiterate. This is a dirty lie as I was married a week before
he was born.
9. In answer to your letter, I have given birth to a son weighing
10 lbs. I hope this is satisfactory.
10. I am forwarding my marriage certificate and my 3 children
one of which is a mistake as you can see.
11. My husband got his project cut off about two weeks ago and I
haven't had any relief since.
12. Unless I get my husband's money pretty soon, I will be
forced to lead an immortal life.
13. You have my changed little boy to a girl, will this
make any difference?
14. I have no children yet, as my husband is a truck
driver and works night and day.
15. I want money as quick as I can get it. I have been in bed
with the doctor for two weeks and he doesn't do me any good.
If things don't improve, I will have to send for another doctor.
16. In accordance with your instructions, I have given birth to
twins in the enclosed envelope.
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor Bonus joke>(Bonus joke):
Here's a bonus joke I may have posted before but I thought it was amusing and reflects my thoughts on the subject matter.
Two men, sentenced to die in the electric chair on the same day,
were led down to the room in which they would their maker. The
priest had given them last rites, the formal speech had been
given by the warden, and a final prayer had been said among the
participants. The warden, turning to the first man, solemnly
asked, Son, do you have a last request?
To which the man replied, Yes sir, I do. I love dance music.
Could you please play the Macarena for me one last time?
Certainly, replied the warden. He turned to the other man and
asked, Well, what about you, son? What is your final request?
Please, said the condemned man, kill me first.
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com):
panda @>(@):
POLARBEAR hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp>(hillb@kdn0.attnet.or.jp):
panda @info>(@info):
http://www.nymex.com/contract/plat.html
Mike Sheller Anecdotal Alert>(Anecdotal Alert):
News you can Use Tokyo frm the Kitco news link>(Tokyo frm the Kitco news link):
By Rieko Suda, with a contribution from Polly Yam in Hong Kong, Bridge News
( Financial summary table )
By Bridge News
Tokyo--Jun 6--Spot platinum prices hit US $500.00 per ounce today in Asia's continued panicky trading on supply concerns in the physical
market, Asian traders said.
This is crazy, a Japanese dealer said. One Japanese trader raised his offer first in the morning to $500 and others followed suit.
This led to panicky buying by Japanese traders who raised their price indications further in limited trading to the day's high of $500 bids, which
immediately met a bout of selling by Asian traders, they said.
But the selling pressured spot platinum prices, quoted at $470.00- 500.00 in late Asian trading, leading the market to become quiet again, the
dealers said.
There was a lot of buying but few selling, one Hong Kong dealer said.
In the physical market, a major Japanese refiner was offering above 2,000 yen per gram, compared with the nearby contract settlement on the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange of 1,660 yen per gram, up 76 yen from Thursday.
TOCOM ( Jun platinum ) is still cheaper than spot prices, another Japanese dealer said. But it should rise further to catch up with ( spot prices ) as
the expiry date approaches. TOCOM Jun platinum expires on Jun 25.
The Asian dealers were reluctant to make price directions for platinum.
Spot palladium prices also rose today in Asia, following platinum, but trading was less active, the dealers said.
Meanwhile, spot gold prices were slightly firmer, supported by platinum's strength, while trading was light, the dealers said. They said light buying
from European dealers firmed spot gold prices.
Gold doesn't have anything to offer ( as its own price factors ) to the market, a dealer said.
The dealers expect spot gold price will be supported at $340.50 later today in the overseas markets, with resistance at $347.00.
panda @>(@):
Tortfeasor mhurst@ix.netcom.com>(mhurst@ix.netcom.com):
Uris @DFW Airport>(@DFW Airport):
retire at the end of this year, her reply was:
I married you for better or for worse, but not for lunch
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
panda @>(@):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
15 minutes to the big one...the EMPLOYMENT REPORT...the estimate is fer 233,000 jobs to have been created...
panda @coincidence?>(@coincidence?):
http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970606/business/stories/gm_
panda @>(@):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0023_z00_17.html
panda @>(@):
TED @tort>(@tort):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
panda @comment>(@comment):
panda @>(@):
TED @employmentreport>(@employmentreport):
down 3.90
panda @>(@):
Rock'n Roll time!
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
TED @employmentreport>(@employmentreport):
TED @mornincoffee>(@mornincoffee):
panda @>(@):
Scott ...!!!>(...!!!):
pls pls pls ..... ;-|
TED @goldandsilver>(@goldandsilver):
TED @fouthcup>(@fouthcup):
hard to hit the right key...S+P futures DOWN 3.60...
Auric @Wake up, gold!>(@Wake up, gold!):
Panda: May I recommend chocolate covered esspresso
beans. Will have you buzzing like Platinum!
Scott .>(.):
thanking ya
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
junior reality check>(reality check):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
I dont know when merger takes place either. There must be shareholders meetings first to ratify the agreement I suppose.
Lan Man Admin What?>(Admin What?):
FYI: Put in a limit order 2 days ago for PAASF @ 6.75, of course that order created a floor for the stock as well as silver, this has happened 2 times times this year, did catch 2 other moves though. I find that PAASF is a great indicator for the future price of silver.
JDisney: Thank you for keeping us all up-to-date on the happenings of DB-Deep/Blydy merger. Put in a limit order for BLYDY this a.m. @ 2.5625, lets see if that order does the same thing for the stock as well as the gold price in dollars!
Scott @Brisbane,Australia>(@Brisbane,Australia):
Tried your site is just what the doctor orderd!
Scott @home>(@home):
its going to be a good day
Roebear @Cometcoaster>(@Cometcoaster):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Mooney:
Last night I didn't get a chance to reply to your post:
Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 23:43
Mooney ( @.Ted ) :
Can't even wait for reply! It was our 25th anniversary on June 3rd and the wife is yelling for me to come upstairs. Some things are more important than talking to my hockey buddies! :- )
I'm not sure, but I think I know what you did when you got called upstairs. I was celebrating the same thing on May 20 but when my wife yelled at me it was to come and help wash the dishes. Same at your house? I'm the BOSS at my house and my wife gives me full permission to say so!
TARNISHED: So if he was born in BC, that doesn't mean he calls it HOME. Ask him where he's from and he'll say OTTAWA ( actually Nepean, a suburb of Ottawa ) , cause that's where he grew up, went to school, played minor hockey and where his parents still live. He even has a summer hockey school here and comes back home every summer. I'll bet he hasn't seen BC except to play a one nighter there since he was 2. Tryin' to steal a guys hero/star is hangin' talk around these parts !!!! ( :- ) )
EARL: You are forgiven my son .... with Mooney leading you astray, you are absolved of any wrong-doing automatically. BTW, someone mentioned the other day about Labatt's beer in the states being sooooo good. BS. The real thing from Canada is 5% , the states stuff is less %. You pay more and get less! Now THAT's what I call a benefit of FREE-TRADE !!!!
Oh yea, that's liquid GOLD ! .....
TTFN
Roebear @HersheyComet>(@HersheyComet):
Lan Man Ahh, Just Round Up!>(Ahh, Just Round Up!):
TED @lanman>(@lanman):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
TED:
Unfortunately Ted, you may be correct. Every time we go to a bar in the states, we ask for water. It's usually imported from Canada ( purer or something ) and a lot stronger than any American beer. Whenever my friends come here, they're always smuggling cases back for their friends. Never heard of any Americans smuggling US beer into Canada though !!
Oh yea, liquid gold !!!!
TTFN
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
POLARBEAR naval intelligence center>(naval intelligence center):
http://www.bday.co.za/97/0606/news/news4.htm
Bob A dead>(dead):
bw Time to buy physicals:>(Time to buy physicals:):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
vronsky PLATINUM STOCKS SOARING>(PLATINUM STOCKS SOARING):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/analysis.html
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
smell the money and they will come out to play soon. $450 in June.
Save this message and remember you were advised in advance.
Gene @reality>(@reality):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
IN FACT - I WOULD SAY THAT RIGHT NOW IS THE TURNING POINT! WE SEEM TO BE HEADED UP AS WE SPEAK! ( Soon might have to post the Louis 16th comment ) .
Front - Same boat as me eh? Also - They never heard of the modern invention of automatic dishwashers in Calaboogie?
JohnC @Brisbane,Australia>(@Brisbane,Australia):
Wheat doubled last year,
Coffee doubled this year,
Palladium doubled,
Platinum + $50 in a few days,
Silver up, down, up,
But Gold... to answer your question,
No Never Nyet,
Gold is never going up,
A Bear market forever.
This time it's different... It can't recover. ( sic ) .
Happy Trading
John from Down Under
cherokee @sweat-lodge>(@sweat-lodge):
the $60.00 price was wrong. after the eject button was hit
sending that e-message, i had a sinking feeling that there
was something smelly. it was 60 pts x 10.--- for $600.00 each!
listen to your broker and get burned every-time!
sorry for incorrect post on that price.
cherry-tree...er..cherokee....i think!; )
vronsky TED BUTLER LOGIC APPLIED to Platinum & Palladium>(TED BUTLER LOGIC APPLIED to Platinum & Palladium):
In light of the spectacular rise of Platinum and Palladium in recent days, and RELATED news out of Switzerland below, a review of Ted Butler’s analysis would provide one with clear vision of what is to come. Ted Butler’s brilliant analysis ( i.e. letter to Greenspan and Rubin ) may be seen in its entirety at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler414.html
Friday June 6 3:34 AM EDT
Gold firms in early Europe, PGMs surge further
ZURICH, June 6 ( Reuter ) - Gold was only slightly firmer in early European trade on Friday, overshadowed by further spectacular gains in platinum group metals ( PGMs ) .
Palladium jumped to $235.00/$245.00 versus $205.00/$215.00. On Thursday in London it was fixed at $235.00 after hitting 17-year highs on the spot market.
Platinum meanwhile surged to $480.00/$500.00 versus $443.00/$444.00. Early on Friday in the Far East and Australia it touched levels as high as $500.
On a monthly chart, it was the highest level for platinum since August 1990 but one trader at a Swiss bank in the Far East said spreads were wide, and deals small.
“We are seeing $30 spreads on very small deals,” he said.
Late Thursday in London, Trevor Pitts, chairman of the London Platinum and Palladium Market Association said after a meeting of its 10 members, plus the three Zurich-based clearing members, that there had been no defaults in the market.
As business began in Zurich, traders said the market remained nervous.
“There is simply no liquidity. Everybody is trying to buy, but no one can offer anything,” said one trader.
The Swiss-based trader said also that the market remained nervous about the possibility of a default, despite Thursday's statement.
“The whole trade is built on trust that someone can deliver. If one looks to see how much volume is traded, it is larger than the physical supply,” he said, adding that under normal conditions this posed no problem.
But in the case of a possible default, he said the situation would be analogous “to a run on the bank.”
THE RUN ON THE PLATINUM & PALLADIUM BANKS WILL EVENTUALLY AND INEVITABLY SPILL OVER INTO THE GOLD AND SILVER BANKS.
Bob A my opinion>(my opinion):
bob wow@holycow>(wow@holycow):
DK Plabug>(Plabug):
I need long term charts on the PGM's. Does anyone have a site?
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
bob bob@bob>(bob@bob):
SAVE YOURSELVES!!!!!!! I would sugest that you sort of extract yourselves from your PGM short positions by gong long the Gold and silver markets. BUT, make sure you do it before anyone else does.
Sooner or later love is going to get ya sooner or later love is goning to get you ; love is going to win.
Sleep tight and don't let those gold bugs bite.
MoreGold @wet behind the ears>(@wet behind the ears):
I bet you 10 shares of Bre-x that he doesn't know.
This is basically why stocks are still going up, and non
of the masses have caught on to Gold --- YET.
vronsky wow@holycow>(wow@holycow):
Therefore, it does NOT SURPRISE ME IN THE LEAST, that the typical 24-YEAR OLD WALL STREET BROKER asks, What is platinum?!! I also wonder if the word BROKER has something to do with how many investors end up by listening to spiels of WAll Street?
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Anyone:
Just noticed that the XOI ( Oil index ) had jumped about 5.00 basis points in about 2 minutes. Since there could be pressure here helping Gold stuff, does anyone have anything about why the Oils exploded?
Mooney: Wanted to get one but she said if I did she'd have nothing to grouch about! Go figure you'd not spell the hometown right ( :- ) )
TTFN
Bob @....another Bob ?!>(@....another Bob ?!):
Inflation obituary: http://www.yahoo.com/headlines/970606/business/stories/cpi_1.html
Cheers
oldhand @cold fusion?>(@cold fusion?):
John W. silver options>(silver options):
I'm looking to buy a silver futures option leap with a strike price around $7. Something like a Dec98 silver option, strike $7. Where can I get quotes on silver futures options this far out? What would the symbol be? And about how much would it cost?
My broker doesn't do futures options and he's the only broker I trust. So I want to make sure I know what I'm asking for before I ask a different broker.
Thanks
Novice @blow breezes blow..>(@blow breezes blow..):
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) @burning Midnight Oil>(@burning Midnight Oil):
``The bond market has decided that the employment data is positive,'' said Douglas Cliggott, U.S. equity strategist at JP Morgain. ``Bonds have surged in the last half hour or so and equities have followed right along in their path.'' The rebound in the Treasury bond market was also attributed to some short-covering. The Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell in May to 4.8 percent, but with ONLY 138,000 new jobs added. ( VERY LOW!!! )
Bob A pgms>(pgms):
JohnC @Silver Options>(@Silver Options):
I hope the following site might help you in your search for SI option quotes.
http://www.cyberramp.net/~chrismc/tables/si.htm
The info is updated after the close of trading each day.
Trade options with care. If you buy options, you can lose ALL your premium plus your transaction costs. If you sell options, you can lose spectacular sums of money in hours.
But, as a speculative instrument, their convexity under fast moving markets often can double or triple their value in days. If you read through the postings, you will note that DA refers to this in relation to his Platinum option position.
Please be careful out there
JohnC Brisbane
D.A. another.war>(another.war):
I mentioned last night that the silver market was being bought heavily by some funds to the tune of around 30MM oz. Apparently there is a big OTC option struck at $5.00 which expires in a few days. The writers want to hold silver down and the buyers want to bid it up. After an early foray by the funds the writers have struck back. Will the funds try again? Will they be successful ?
Stay tuned, the battle has been joined.
bw A conversation with Boskin:>(A conversation with Boskin:):
NAILZ FOR JOHN W.>(FOR JOHN W.):
MR. BEAR FOOLS GOLD>(FOOLS GOLD):
1. Unlimited supply because the stockpiles will never deplete.
2. CB'S supplies
3. No currency based on gold
4. Major retail buyers uneducated and poor ( asia,middle east )
5. Cannot rally with PGM'S
6. Governments want low price = low inflation
7. Bre-x and friends
8. arizona to produce gold from sand
9. No news moves gold price
10.Negitive perception ( hitler/jews, bre-x, dooms day investment, storage, lousy returns )
Can you think of any more reasons? I bet you can if you are honest and try real hard! Come on give it a try, you might like it. What do you have to lose? MONEY
panda @>(@):
panda @>(@):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/arc_chv_m_1.html
Mike Sheller Miso for Lunch>(Miso for Lunch):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Front - Sorry - was in a hurry and couldn't find my map! ( Also Sorry about the wife needing something to complain about - But I guess that is a round-about compliment from her as it indicates that you are perfect in every other way! )
Mike Sheller la vida es suena>(la vida es suena):
nailz GREAT LINKS>(GREAT LINKS):
newkid ohio>(ohio):
i've been reading your postings for sometime now ( including Gold Eage ) .
prior to Nixon getting us off the gold standard, if one wanted gold, one needed to exchange it for his labor or real goods. since 71 or 73 all one needs to do is simply exchange pieces of paper and a promise to pay for it in the future. ( thats what fiat currencies are ) . following this i can get gold and have future tax payers pay for it? im buying!!
newkid ohio>(ohio):
i've been reading your postings for sometime now ( including Gold Eage ) .
prior to Nixon getting us off the gold standard, if one wanted gold, one needed to exchange it for his labor or real goods. since 71 or 73 all one needs to do is simply exchange pieces of paper and a promise to pay for it in the future. ( thats what fiat currencies are ) . following this i can get gold and have future tax payers pay for it? im buying!!
Strad Master Riding the snake>(Riding the snake):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Panda & Mooney:
Panda: Thanks so much for the link. Seems strange what they said there though in that the oversupply in oils supplies was much of what brought the price down from $22 to $19+ .... Now they say it's because it won't drop to $15 ? What am I missing here ? Is there supply or not ? Guess time will tell but I like your theory a lot !!!
Mooney: Thanks for the compliment but I can assure you that's NOT what she meant! After 25, I'm just untrainable any more haha BTW, The checks in the mail !!
TTFN
Bob A guru>(guru):
To Bear (@)>((@)):
nailz Question for Mike Sheller>(Question for Mike Sheller):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
MoreGold @MR. BEAR>(@MR. BEAR):
You actually listed one which is VERY bullish for Gold - the Bre-x washout. The markets had already discounted Bre-x comming on line with
71 to 200 million ounces of Gold. This False Gold then evaporated into thin air. This is bullish not bearish.
I expect much more False Gold will evaporate into thin air in the future.
Meanwhile, we NEED you guys ( Merril Lynch, shorts ) to keep writing us these damn cheap calls.....
show me @missouri>(@missouri):
Short Bull @ Out of my XAU yesterday, missing .38 gain>(@ Out of my XAU yesterday, missing .38 gain):
I mention the DOW because the XAU has been tracking the DOW better than
the metals. I predicted metals up just one more day ( today ) and with the
weak closes in gold and silver toward their lower ranges, that prediction
looks pretty safe. I am happy to be out of the XAU... ( no thanks Mr. Cole ) .
Mr. Cole believes I will miss the big move in the XAU because I trade too
much. Because I trade in and out so much I won't be carrying losses when
we ultimately bottom. I will be smart enough to recognize when the
bottom hits surely, and I will stay in when the XAU gives me reason to.
So far it has not. If we drop a little next week I will be getting
back into the XAU.
The Bradley point on Monday is looking more and more like a high rather
than a low....enjoy the rally in the DOW as long as it lasts because
today or Monday could very well be a significant high ( famous last words ) .
I know I am not smart enough to predict a major high in the markets, but
Mr. Rosen and several cycle analysts are...and they have missed the last
few calls but it looks more and more like they got this one right. The
NASDAQ is quite weak looking on this rally and I don't feel the NASDAQ
100 will trade much above 950 on this move, which is about 6 points higher
than we are this moment. Well, we will see. Anyone I am out of all
futures positions and mutual funds and I made money...it could be a lot
worse. I am more convinced with this rally today that the markets are
in trouble, than if we had sold off. The only thing that I feel can save
the DOW is for it to sell off on the close. Because this is likely a
major high, it will likely rally on the close and become more and more
overextended.....which is what tops are made of.
show me @missouri>(@missouri):
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
1. 16 mo. baby bear $415.00 to $337.00
2. Almost 10 year moma bear $502.75 to $326.10
3. 17 year papa bear $850.00 to 284.25
#1 baby bear needs a test of $337.00 only -$6.00 or 2%
#2 moma bear needs a test of $326.10 just -$17.00 or %5
#3 papa bear needs a test of $284.25 - $60.00 or 17%
panda @>(@):
EARLDORADO @twoheadedmonster>(@twoheadedmonster):
Auric @Its in the bag>(@Its in the bag):
Mr. Bear: Sure hope you have on a protective cup
under those shorts
Showing You>(You):
tarnished @Dinghy...INCOMMING!!>(@Dinghy...INCOMMING!!):
Although citizenship is ascribed to place of birth...I know I'm grasping!
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
TED @tarnished>(@tarnished):
..hahaha..DOW up 130...Hi Tort: Just noticed you in me mail box and am off ta read me mail...
nailz HEY TED !!!!>(HEY TED !!!!):
Jack Interesting Times>(Interesting Times):
Row developing between Underwritters and McWatter's
concerning the Sigma and Kiena Reserves. Bre-x has maked
everyone very careful. Story in Financial Post.
Preacher Bear Patrol>(Bear Patrol):
Jack Interesting Times>(Interesting Times):
Rowe developing between Underwritters and McWatter's
concerning the Sigma and Kiena Reserves. Bre-x has made
everyone very careful. Story in Financial Post.
tarnished @Dinghy makin waves>(@Dinghy makin waves):
How'bout that BKX, little piggy's gettin fat!
Still hangin on ABX to get a move-on.
George S. Cole bulls and bears>(bulls and bears):
When gold does finally enter its next bull phase, rest assured that it will NOT occur on a 130 point up Dow day. Much more likely on a minus 200 or 300 point Dow day. Also, just as gold badly lagged the whites over the past few days, the whites will badly lag when the yellow stuff takes off
Stock market in its final blowoff phase and Dow could approach 8000 before this summer's final top. More upside potential in small caps at this phase of the cycle, despite today's under performance.
Bob @...Platinum price managed by Russians>(@...Platinum price managed by Russians):
The Platinum Paper Market is being manipulated by the Russians to their advantage. The last story I read in this matter was that Russian platimum was authorized to ship for June - as expected - but the export permit needed to be signed by a government official. Interesting ? If the Russians could only manipulate the gold market in their ( our ) favour we would all be rich in no time !
Anyone have a guess when the platimum paper market will crash ? What price ?
Cheers
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
TED @NDPland>(@NDPland):
nailz SCATERIE BECKONS>(SCATERIE BECKONS):
GFD Congratulations>(Congratulations):
One question though. I would expect selling in other markets to cover losses in palladium and platinum. I am not seeing it in this case. Is it because the shorts are mostly industrial traders and don't cover this way or am I not looking in the right place?
TED @nailz>(@nailz):
vronsky GOOD PROBABILITY OF DOW 8000 IN SUMMER >(GOOD PROBABILITY OF DOW 8000 IN SUMMER ):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
panda @>(@):
http://www.dbc.com/cgi-bin/htx.exe/newsroom/snapshot.html?source=core/dbc
panda @>(@):
Bernatz de ventadorm alchemist's valley@les pyranees>(alchemist's valley@les pyranees):
Pardonez moi so much for zee long seelance. Ah have
been zo buzy on zee gold from zee infected dirt machine.
But ah had zee grande technical probleme. Ah tried to
juice up ( as you say ) zee process wiz some Black Plague
zherms zat Ah had kept in a zhar from when ah was
a keed in zee so called dark ages. Sadly all my staff
zey DIE by dam, poor souls, and ah had to leave zat
village rather quickly.
Now a new projzect - Zee Platinium from zee gold - zis
should not be so tough - Im off to see zee wizards zee
wonderful wizards of zee pyranees.
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
The govenment would like to see gold at it's real value ( cost of copper ) and once and for all killing the myth that the barbaric relic of years gone by is somehow a hedge against inflation. If gold was ever to raise its ugly head as a safe haven against the evils of fiat currency the governments of the world would sell at a huge loss to stiffle the reasugance. But they do'nt have too, they will sell very slowly and reap big profits while keeping the fiat currency strong. Do you believe the EMU would let gold devalue the currency. The CB's will and are selling all the gold in thier valuts now. They know the future of this barbaric metal is gone. If the CB's had no gold who would want it?
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
By your own account, you move in a world that is alien to our own and to read about it may be a cause for some discomfort. Primarily because, those who do know what they are about and how to do and do it well are also proud of that fact and have no desire to 'hide their light under a bushel'. ..... In short, please continue to post your opinion and I will learn to deal with the rest. There are many things to learn from this site. Forebearance not the least.
Jack All over the place>(All over the place):
Mr. Bear: If the government had no gold, I'd want it.
Mooney: ( 13:14 ) These new methods of propelling our bombs
drive me nuts, they have so many possibilities out there.
How about Zinc-Air modules ready to use by large fleets
to power vehicles. Electro Fuel Corp. ( EFCX ) has a series
of test going in Germany, Italy and the Scandanavian
countries that look promising. Soon they will be testing
at a location near you or us.
Lan Man: ( 09:46 ) Government statistics and Wall Street
projections are fabricated to keep the market up and the
gold bugs unhappy. They want everybody else to Don't
worry, be happy - this until they decide to lower the
boom for the intro of the Pheonix.
Duncan: ( 22:57 ) No one really knows how much gold they
( mining Cos. ) have in the ground until it comes out
profitably. Sometimes they catch the problem early -that
to say after some investors get screwed. Say Brex-x,
then Delgra___, then ________?. They will keep
coming. Not anything new, just a part of the scene.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Tortfeasor Friday afternoon joke>(Friday afternoon joke):
Once upon a time there was a famous sea captain. This captain was very successful at what he did; for years he guided merchant ships all over the world. Never did stormy seas or pirates get the best of him. He was admired by his crew and fellow captains.
However, there was one thing different about this captain. Every morning he went through a strange ritual. He would lock himself in his captain's quarters and open a small safe. In the safe was an envelope with a piece of paper inside. He would stare at the paper for a minute, then lock it back up. After, he would go about his daily duties.
For years this went on, and his crew became very curious. Was it a treasure map? Was it a letter from a long lost love? Everyone speculated about the contents of the strange envelope.
One day the captain died at sea. After laying the captain's body to rest, the first mate led the entire crew into the captains quarters. He opened the safe, got the envolope, opened it and...
The first mate turned pale and showed the paper to the others. Four words were on the paper, two on two lines:
``Port Left, Starboard Right''
GFD The next shoe>(The next shoe):
bw Greenspan's nightmare: the big one II>(Greenspan's nightmare: the big one II):
The New York markets start to open soon. The phone rings once more, his monitor tells him its Michel. Michel go the hell away. I wish I could Alan. Will this day ever end? How much do you want now? Alan as you know cash alone will not work this time. We in Europe have a plan and I want to run it by you. You don't have to Michel. Let me guess, this time you want both gold and cash, correct? Correct Alan. We need two hundred million ounces of gold from you along with two and a half trillion of your good old usa dollars. We will kick in another two hundred million ounces of gold and perhaps we can crush this thing real well. Two hundred million, are you crazy? Michel, you know damn well we don't have that much gold! Alan neither do we. Just promise to deliver it! All we need to do is cause the overdue reaction, you can cover, make some money to boot and deliver nothing. I'll have to go upstairs on this Michel. Don't be too long Alan, we may only have a couple of hours, we have to get this thing under control before your stock markets open.
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
It means an increased cost to carry inventory which means higher surcharges on PGM products. In fact we just received notice from our suppliers beginning with the familiar As you may already be aware....
The sqeeze is on Pt and Pd because of a ( perceived? ) physical shortage. This isn't the case with gold and silver and so I wouldn't expect the lease rates to coattail the PGMs. I can't tell you if the price will move up in sympathy because if I did then everybody would know, and then it wouldn't be interesting talking about it, and then nobody would come back to our website, and then.....
Bart Kitner bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree. I'm thinking that it may not skyrocket. I'm thinking that it might rise slowly like a feather taken every higher by a breeze.
TED @tort>(@tort):
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
I'm quite happy that you and so many others are thinking like that. Historically such total bearishness by so many often preceeds a run-up, such as total bullishness in the stock market may preceed a bear market. In the stock market now good news is taken as good news, bad news is taken as good news, and if there is no significant news someone makes up a bullish story. The herd is running all together; they may run off a cliff all together.
NJ long bond>(long bond):
Friday June 6 2:26 PM EDT
US T-bond yield drops to 6.80 pct, shorts cover
NEW YORK, June 6 ( Reuter ) - The benchmark U.S. Treasury 30-year bond yield fell to 6.80 percent in afternoon trade on Friday, its lowest level in more than three months.
Short-covering, foreign buying and technical factors boosted the 30-year bond price more than a full point as its yield dropped to 6.80 percent, the lowest level since the close on February 28, traders
said.
At the shorter end of the maturity curve, the two-year Treasury note yield slipped to 6.13 percent, its lowest level since its close at 6.11 percent on March 12.
Earl Jr. @goldendreams>(@goldendreams):
yackity yack excetera.IMHO ODLE and I are the only voices or reason in the wilderness of AU investing when one takes stock of the amount of witty comments needed to show our total superiority to the rest of you peons.IMHO bla bla bla droning on and on and on.
MoreGold @EMU Blues >(@EMU Blues ):
Read the article in todays Globe and Mail. Helmut Khol is the only strong backer remaining and he may be gone next year. Large majority of Germans don't want it. France and Britain want it watered down, and others want it delayed. Khol has said if it is delayed it will never happen.
If it's watered down, the Euro will be a weak currency. HeHeHe - what better news for Gold than a weak European currency.
Nightly Business Report - just this minute - reports a rumour that the EMU will be delayed - what timing?
This is all bullish news for Gold.
Those counting on the EMU and a strong Euro will be sorely disappointed.
panda @>(@):
Earl Jr. -- Huh?
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
My sence of the sell off on the Close was that most traders who had bought over the past two days simply did not want to go home long over a weekend in case something happened with the platinum situation. So since MOST traders are wrong expect Gold to open up higher on Monday. Of course the Platinum situation could get worked out this weekend I doupt it will releave the situation by Monday.
Although the closer we get to $350 ( Aug ) the better the shorting opportunity will be!
TED @longbond>(@longbond):
Hi Panda...nother good day fer paper...eh...
vronsky PLEASE POST MORE.>(PLEASE POST MORE.):
Wondering w@W>(w@W):
But Bart, the firms that sell the PGM metals short also sell gold and silver. If some of these firms fail and default on their PGM contracts, will they be able or allowed to make good on there gold and silver positions? Will the firms and indivuals who were cheated, allow this?
Regards,
Wondering
panda @?>(@?):
BBL...
panda @will.the.real?>(@will.the.real?):
Gone now.
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
Figures from the German Bundesbank showed 11.4 percent of Germans were out of work in May, compared with 11.2 percent in April, while the U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 4.8 percent in May, its lowest level since October 1973.
But a weaker-than-expected U.S. 138,000-job rise in May payrolls, while counteracted by upward revisions to the March and April figures, caused some to question the immediate need for higher interest rates.
You could talk a bit that the number was neutral for Fed policy, but with stocks and bonds so strong, I don't think you can get a whole lot out of that argument, said Mike Malpede, senior foreign exchange analyst at Refco Group Ltd. in Chicago.
Reuters...6/6/97 ( Yahoo News )
market watcher More on EMU story>(More on EMU story):
Waigel to hold June 18 CSU briefing on EMU, gold
By Emma Thomasson
BONN, June 6 ( Reuter ) - German Finance Minister Theo Waigel will defend his controversial plan to revalue Bundesbank assets and his stance on Europe's single currency to his Christian Social Union ( CSU ) on June 18, the CSU said on Friday.
A CSU spokesman said Waigel had been due to address the party, the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Christian Democrats ( CDU ) , earlier this week, but was forced to cancel because of ``important engagements in Bonn.''
Waigel on Tuesday was forced to retreat from his plan to help plug a gaping budget hole and qualify for the euro with profits from revalued central bank assets, after sharp Bundesbank criticism and disquiet in the ruling coalition.
The beleaguered Waigel on Wednesday survived an opposition parliamentary motion calling for his dismissal, after Kohl threw his weight fully behind the struggling minister.
CSU sources in Bavaria's state parliament said there was broad dissatisfaction with Waigel in his own party, particularly because of the row with the fiercely independent Bundesbank over asset revaluation.
The sources said the party was critical of their leader because he had not informed them sufficiently over his plans.
Waigel on Thursday denied there was any discussion in the CSU party about a possible delay to the start of European economic and monetary union ( EMU ) , planned for 1999, as reported by Friday's edition of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
The Munich-based paper said CSU members were discussing a possible delay due to the left-wing election victory in France.
Waigel also reaffirmed that Germany would meet entry criteria as outlined in the Maastricht Treaty and that the deficit criteria must be strictly met at 3.0 percent or below of Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) .
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily quoted a member of the CSU state government in Bavaria as saying: ``Since the French election we have agreed currency union must be postponed.''
The report said the CSU state government and CSU members of the state assembly in Bavaria believed a single currency would be a ``monetary death sentence'' after new French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin suggested it could be launched with softer financial criteria.
A spokesman for Bavarian Premier Edmund Stoiber said in response to an inquiry that Stoiber saw only 50-50 chances of a punctual launch of the euro if France's new leaders met certain election campaign pledges.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, France's new Finance Minister, has suggested that criteria in the Maastricht treaty on monetary union, including a requirement to cut public deficits to three percent of gross domestic product, should be interpreted politically rather than in strict mathematical terms.
Stoiber, quoted by the Sueddeutsche, said softening the criteria could have disastrous consequences. ``If people notice in the year 2005 that they have given up their currency too soon, we can really talk about a bomb in Europe,'' he said.
nailz CHINA BOUGHT THE BONDS>(CHINA BOUGHT THE BONDS):
Este on COT>(on COT):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Steve (Perth WA) Impressed>(Impressed):
tarnished makin waves from Dinghy>(makin waves from Dinghy):
A couple months back Earl, Ted and I were conversing about the useage of electric cars and the lack of requirement for catalytic converters if this should come to pass. After it was pointed out how archaic present
battery technology is I presented Ballard and Fuel cells as the more forward approach to the problem; following which you had nothing but questions. Please don't present yourself as the proprietor of information
which you gleaned from here.
As an addendum; The Chicago Transit Authority, Honda Motor Co. , Ford
and several other major auto and transport manufacturers, have signed contracts with Ballard as there chief souces of fuel cell technology.
ted butler Chutzpah Award>(Chutzpah Award):
Seriously though, I've read an awful lot of passionate discourse here about politics and social security and corporate and personal welfare, but I'm dumbfounded there is no outrage that a foreign bank would suggest a bailout so soon into a market move. I'm also taken back with the new definition of a cash transaction having delivery extended to 30 days ( let's see what happens in 30 days ) . I have to admit it sounds a lot better than default.
WW @New England>(@New England):
Reason for pandering to China clear now BOC rumored to be big treasury buyer. After China and 34% of debt foreign owned our boys are becoming really indebted to overseas sources to keep the bubble going. We will see worse trade deals and NO demands on China.
Stk mkt rise and pressure on metals at end means they need to keep pumping the confidence drug when the economic situation has never been nor is it possible to imagine it being more precarious.
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
Mike Sheller we are very much amused>(we are very much amused):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
WW @New England>(@New England):
HYPOTHETICAL:
PrecM Co. has 7 million ounces of mineable reserves in gold. 3 million of these are in the development process and will come on line next year.
The company is currently producing 200,000 ozs per year and this will ramp up hopefully to 350,000 when the mine in development comes on board.The company will produce only 200,000 this year but has sold call options on current years production of 400,000 ozs with a strike price of 390. All spot deferreds are being covered for this year and future years so the short options are the only hedge. If Gold suddenly goes to 450 THIS YEAR are there any risks and if so what are they? The co says there are none because they can roll forward. Viewing the white metals this week is their statement accurate and/or does their future reserves and production adequately protect them?
Thanks
nailz @QUESTION FOR MIKE SHELLER>(@QUESTION FOR MIKE SHELLER):
ted butler Dresdner source>(Dresdner source):
Reify @Some things remain the same>(@Some things remain the same):
As Jimmy Rogers often points out, don't look at what everyone reads and sees, look at the trend and what it says about the future. Well let's do that. We have low inflation, we're told ( I think the true inflation picture is hidden behind a mountain, and that mountain is the DEBT ) .
Then let's look at the world's stock markets, they are all at extremely high levels, do we agree, so far?
Now there's the question of precious metals, which have always gone in the opposite direction, on a cyclical basis, and low and behold, we see they are very low, and on a several year basis, let's say as far back as 1982, they look like a gigantic base is forming. This also being true for precious metal stocks. Sure we've been in a bear market in these stocks, but what comes after a bear, you've guessed it- A BULL, and that' no bull.
Now for the traders. We have several, who have made excellent calls, no need to mention names, we all read the same posts. This fool has tried and failed, playing the trading game. I wonder with all the lovely stories of success, after Uncle Sam, or whomever, get's his cut and commisions are paid, and the losses are subtracted from the gains, how many can say, they are truly ahead in the long run?
Right again, not too many.
So for most of us we have to look to buy wisely, whatever that means, and sit and watch our profits acumulate over time. If not ours, then our children and grandchildren's. This having been said, we all know that looking into the future, with all the givens, Markets will tumble Gibralta will crumble, they're only made of clay, but our love is here to stay. VIVE, VIVA, long live GOLD!
Sorry, but I'm overly tired, and one sometimes sees things better, or worse, at night.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
M-B Partner>(Partner):
D.A. an.off.the.wall.thought>(an.off.the.wall.thought):
Having not had a lot of sleep the last few days I offer the following delusion. Some weeks back, there was a rumor in the market that the Russians wanted to use their PGM stockpile as collateral for a loan. The story goes that because the PGM's are so illiquid it would be hard to price and hedge paper based on this stuff, so the Swiss bankers that were approached said nyet or whatever Swiss bankers say. Suppose for a moment that this was true. The Russians were looking to borrow against their PGM inventory instead of dumping it on the market because they knew that over time it would be worth more than at a one time fire sale. After having been rebuffed they took the only course of action available. Freeze all exports, allow the miracle of supply and demand to work its magic, then when the world has reaccessed the value of PGM's go back to the market and ask again. Who know's, maybe they still have a big stockpile and will trade it for some useless but less volatile backing such as gold. Maybe in exchange for a big old pile of PGM's that is desparately needed, they will get themselves a big old pile of gold that no one seems to want. Could be the Russians are getting the hang of this free market stuff a lot faster than anyone thinks.
Bart's article seems to set the clock ticking for the PGM market. Far too much political pressure will brought to bear upon anyone with stockpiles if it means the shutdown of the auto industry. I wonder if old Ron Rubin will be on the phone this weekend with his buddy Julian Roberts. I'd like to have that transcript!
ACW wisdom@cyberstation.net>(wisdom@cyberstation.net):
Awarenessly Challenged Golden Blond Jokes...
Q: What do you call a dead golden blond in a closet?
A: The 1984 Hide and Seek World Champion.
Q: What do you call a smart blond?
A: A golden retriever.
Q: How does a blond kill a fish?
A: She drowns it.
Q: What do you do when a blonde throws a pin at you?
A: Run ....she's got a hand grenade in her mouth.
Q: What is the blonde doing when she holds her hands tightly
over her ears?
A: Trying to hold on to a thought.
Q: Why did the blonde stare at frozen orange juice can for two hours?
A: Because it said 'concentrate'.
Q: Why did the blonde climb up to the roof of the bar?
A: She heard that the drinks were on the house.
Q: What's the difference between Elvis and smart blondes?
A: Elvis has been sighted.
Q: What did the blonde do when she noticed that someone had already
written on the overhead transparency?
A: She turned it over and used the other side.
Q: How do you get a one-armed blonde out of a tree?
A: Wave to her.
Q: How does a blonde high-5?
A: She smacks herself in the forehead.
Q: How do you know when a blonde has been making chocolate chip
cookies?
A: You find M&M shells all over the kitchen floor.
Q: Do you know why the blonde got fired from the M&M factory?
A: She kept throwing out all the Ws
Q: How can you tell if a blonde's been using the computer?
A: There's white-out on the screen.
Q: How can you tell if another blonde's been using the computer?
A: There's writing on the white-out.
Q: How can you tell when a fax had been sent from a blonde?
A: There is a stamp on it.
Q: Why do all blondes have a dimple in their chin and a flat
forehead?
A: Finger on chin-I don't know. Hits forehead-Oh I get it!
Q: Why did the blonde scale the chain-link fence?
A: To see what was on the other side.
BLONDE #1: Have you ever read Shakespeare?
BLONDE #2: No, who wrote it?
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Roebear @Hershey>(@Hershey):
http://www.gpgi.com/
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
RE: Fri jun 06 1997 14:41
You actually listed one which is VERY bullish for Gold - the Bre-x washout. The markets had already discounted Bre-x comming on line with 71 to 200 million ounces of Gold. This False Gold then evaporated into thin air. This is bullish not bearish.
Tortfeasor Basketball>(Basketball):
Post Office Salt Lake City>(Salt Lake City):
Mail will be delivered on time.
Post Office SLC>(SLC):
Tortfeasor: Great minds post alike!
panda @for.the.record>(@for.the.record):
How prophetic,gold crashing, er, I mean in a plane crash...
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0002_y00_2.html
speaking of auto emissions,
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/y0023_9.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/06/c_f_gm_y0_1.html
RJ Alas Auric>(Alas Auric):
I regret you felt misunderstood and the fault is entirely mine for not replying to Monsieur Goldbugger directly.
That said, in response to your concerns about being in over you head, aren’t we all? Who know what this market will do tomorrow? Not I. As for the near term prospects for gold, please understand that I view gold less as an investment or hedge against inflation, rather than a hedge against my more speculative buys. I am forever looking to short gold against my longs whenever the opportunity presents. The risk is minimal and the protection great.
I own gold. I am as susceptible as anyone to it’s allures. I love the way it glows and the way I gets warm so quickly in the palm of my hand. Like most, I have a special place in my heart for gold. I also love to sell it into the dirt and let others test their patience in it’s eventual rise.
Again, I apologize for the slight and the misunderstanding.
panda @>(@):
``I don't believe South African producers have stocks of metal,'' said Barry Davison, the managing director of Amplats, the world's largest supplier.
``I don't think relief can come from here. The relief can only come from a resumption of Russian supplies and dishoarding of the metal.''
Dishoarding? What MBA came up with that one? I think I have to get a new dictionary.
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
RJ rj@pacbell.net>(rj@pacbell.net):
RJ rj@pacbell.net>(rj@pacbell.net):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Auric @Still buying>(@Still buying):
RJ @ 22:52-Thanks. No apology necessary. It would
be a duller place here if everyone agreed. IMHO,
keep up the posts, they are appreciated.
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
As Bart has mentioned to us all: Please Note: For your protection, please do not post any comments...that are accusing, harassing or defamatory. It is your duty as an information provider to verify the accuracy and legality of the content you are providing and to accept liability for any actionable defamation or objectionable material which you may provide.
I realise that this warning may seem a little severe in the present circumstance but it should serve as a reminder to all here that sometimes we push the submit button before we have actually thought about the accuracy and truth about what we post.
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Ron Worries>(Worries):
The two principle economies competing with the US for the world's investment dollars are Europe and Japan. While not yet basket cases, both are in sad shape at the moment, and there appears to be no end in sight to their problems. That leaves the US way out in front for the forseeable future and that's VERY bearish for gold near and mid-term.
ark saltedcore>(saltedcore):
media will lead to an increase in commodity prices. That is
the cause of inflation. Not increased wages, particularly
if the earner produces more. Goods and services will not
appear as if my magic to meet the quanity of money printed.
Check out Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credits.
Nicht war?
Sooner or later Gold will rise again. Gravity has not been
repealed, yet.
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
....They are playin in yer back yard fer Christ sakes...answer me!......
tweedle dum...tweedle dee....Some hockey fan you are....
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Also I predicted Detroit in six in the semis and seven in the finals so I MIGHT be wrong on the number of games it takes but it sure looks like I had the team right! :- ) . Also I gues you missed this one this past A.M. - Date: Fri Jun 06 1997 10:40
Mooney ( moonstep@idirect.com ) :
Ted - I KNOW your hurt AND that you're joking with me. I would
have been happy to see N.Y. win also, but it just wasn't in the cards
this year. BTW - I freely admit that I know squat about the
difference between the Bull and the chocolate!
Bart Kitner bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
How it would affect the gold and silver? Probably the same way they would be affected if some shorts were to default for reasons other than short supply. There would be some name-calling, finger-pointing, and their broker would be registering for a new career in web page design. But I wouldn't expect to see much movement in the price as a direct result.
Auric @$600 in 2000>(@$600 in 2000):
Ron @ 00:12-That is an interesting thought. Indeed,
perhaps that explains a lot of recent strengh in US
dollar. I don't think the EMU will fly either. Is
it possible that a failed, or weak EMU could make a
strong dollar but not affect gold that much ( in US
dollar terms ) ? My thoughts: US has same problems
as Europe and Japan, but not as severe. We have not
addressed our fiscal affairs either. I expect a
general debasement in currencies, with the Dollar
being hurt less than the Yen or EMU ( or whatever ) .
In other words, gold goes higher in Dollar terms,
but much higher in other currency terms. Would
welcome any thoughts.
Bernatz de Ventadorm Le fou@needs a lawyer>(Le fou@needs a lawyer):
Zank you so much for your zo kindly support in my
time of difficultie. By zee way, ah may need a lawyer
if ah cannot stay a leetle ahead of zee peuple fron zat
last small village. Do you zink zat monsiour W. Wackair
of zee varmint region might be of assistance. Also he
iz zo funny by gar, and he talk so much, he would lift
mah spirits
Bernatz de Ventadorm le_fou@supplies swords>(le_fou@supplies swords):
Ah zink you ALL owe each ozair an apologie. If not,
Ah zink you should settle ziz mattair wiz zee FRENCH
SWORD by dam. If you require, Ah can supply zem by
air mail ( for a small fee, naturellement ) .
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
for gold -- heavy forward selling, massive gold loans, and physical demand far exceeding physical supply. All precious metals will soar.
The real trigger will be a stock market creash.
Jack Answers for Mr. Bear>(Answers for Mr. Bear):
Mr. Bear: I am sure that the answers that follow will
never compare with those of the regulars. But anyway:
1. Unlimited supply because the stockpile will never
deplete.
Ans. Not many will melt their jewels at the low price
that we have right now, nor will others sell their pure
bullion at these prices.
2. CB's Supplies.
Ans. The big argument in Germany is more than just a
common currency question. Say different cultures - and
how they think and interact with each other.
3. No currency based on gold.
Ans. Governments have and will fail again, many are
totering as you ( may be ) reading this.
4. Major retail buyers uneducated and poor ( asia, middle
east ) .
Ans. Common sense plays a major role in decisions,
especially when applied to government actions. Most
people will defend their country, but dislike their
government.
5. Cannot rally with PMG's.
Ans. Really cannot argue, but there are many gold and
silver shorts out there.
6. Governments want low price=low inflation.
Ans. The share markets are well inflated. Government
figures are not accurate. My living costs are much
higher year over year. If I go back 20 years, I Say WOW.
7. Bre-x and friends.
Ans. They will become the goldbugs folk heros.
8.Arizona to produce gold from sand.
Ans. Considered that Bre-x was finding gold at a rate of
1 to 3 ounces per second, this, according to whose
numbers were being used.
9.No news moves gold prices.
Ans. Stock market mania has everyone invested and mania's
do end. They can fool most of the people some of the
time.
10. Negative Perceptions
Ans. A Contrian Buy signal.
tarnished @dinghy and drifting>(@dinghy and drifting):
The program Venture, on the comunist broadcasting corp ( cbc ) did a major expose on Ballard listing the many companies they're dealing with at present. These sites may be of help, I can't recall all of them, right now....too tired.
http://www.ttcorp.com/nha/thl/oct_95a.htm
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/date/19960927/news02042.html
Mooney, I save apologies for my mates, sorry but I'm not attracted to you.
night all....you too TED!
TTFN
tarnished Iz varnished>(Iz varnished):
The Last Goldbug Formerly Goldbug 234513>(Formerly Goldbug 234513):
RJ ( 22:52 ) : Meant no harm. I apologize. Thank you for
helping me select my new handle.
Glenn au_usa@hotmail.com>(au_usa@hotmail.com):
New York-June 6-FWN--THE NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
( NYMEX ) will increase the margins on its platinum and
palladium futures contracts as of the close of business
Monday, June 9, the exchange announced today.
The margins for platinum will be increased to $2,000
from $900 for clearing members; to $2,200 from $990 for
members; and to $2,700 from $1,215 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving platinum's spot
month, the margins will be increased to $500 from $250 for
clearing members; to $550 from $275 for members; and to $675
from $338 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving all other platinum
months, the margins will be increased to $300 from $150 for
clearing members; to $330 from $165 for members; and to $405
from $203 for customers, according to NYMEX.
The margins for palladium will be increased to $2,000
from $1,000 for clearing members; to $2,200 from $1,100 for
members; and to $2,700 from $1,350 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving palladium's spot
month, the margins will be increased to $500 from $250 for
clearing members; to $550 from $275 for members; and to $675
from $338 for customers.
For inter-month spreads involving all other palladium
months, the margins for palladium will be increased to $300
from $150 for clearing members; to $330 from $165 for
members; and to $405 from $203 for customers, according to
the exchange.
Goldbug23 @Ingotwetrust>(@Ingotwetrust):
Duncan To: Reify @ 21:00>(To: Reify @ 21:00):
wory me! I guess patience is the name of the game.
George S. Cole stocks and gold>(stocks and gold):
I don’t think it will require a stock market crash to get gold moving in a big way. A drop of 15% ( either slow or fast ) not quickly followed by a rebound to new highs will suffice quite nicely. Once the smart money concludes that the huge financial asset bull is ending, all the CB manipulations in the world will not be able to keep the yellow stuff from soaring.
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
Speed @home>(@home):
European money moved into U.S. bonds yesterday, causing drop in interest rates and surge in stocks. Historically, this is an indicator of the last stages of a bull market. The Europeans buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Check out Market Watch. This section in Barron's is for newsletter authors and has been bearish for most of this year. Today it's full of dow 14000 sentiment. Has the last bear capitulated? These things are all bullish for the metals imho.
Panda: How about that Stillwater?! : )
Charlse H. hmg@cchono.com>(hmg@cchono.com):
Recently, you posted a report by the LGN group discussing the white metals. Do you know if they are still sending out nesletters? Do you know anyway of contacting them? They have not responded to any of my e-mails regarding my life-time subscription to their e-mail service.
Thanks in advance.
Charlse H.
Mike Sheller @Nailz Biting Time>(@Nailz Biting Time):
Sometimes the astro effects lag a bit as the metaphysical works its way out here into the physical. Taking initial positions in silver futures or options may be warranted right here, with expanding positions if the market starts working higher. I noticed puts on silver options running ahead of calls the other day. This is another minor bullish sign. Still figure July to be hot for silver. Hang in.
TED @speed>(@speed):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Lan Man Agreed!>(Agreed!):
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
The Bulls need to remove the glue from the bottoms of their shoes.
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
panda @Platinum.palladium>(@Platinum.palladium):
In the FWIW column, todays Investors Business Daily ranked SWC a 'B' on their Accum/Dist scale. 'A' meaning strong accumulation and 'E' being strong distribution. It also ranked well into the most actives in volume. One of the things that I watch in a stock during the day is the number and size of trades. SWC had a lot X,000 share buys and the sells seemed to be of 100 to 200 share size. Translation, funds are buying. Warning? They ( funds ) can dump as fast as they buy.
Even the Nightly Business Report had the stock on their most actives on the AMEX. It was funny watching Paul Kanga? trying to explain the movement. Something like, Platinum and palladium have been moving up, and Stillwater is in the business of mining it. Duh! :- ) :- ) :- )
panda @>(@):
wondering w@w>(w@w):
It will be interesting to see how segregated customers segregated funds are if there are defaults.
R.
Wondering
Tortfeasor joke of the morn>(joke of the morn):
A very spiritual, devout and holy priest dies and is immediately swept
up to heaven.
St. Peter greets him at the Pearly Gates, and says, Hello, Father,
we've been waiting for you for a long time. Welcome to Heaven! You
are very well known here, and as a special reward, because you are
such a spiritual and holy man, we're going to grant you anything
you wish even before we enter Heaven. What can I grant you?
Well, the priest says, I've always been a great admirer of the
Virgin Mother. I've always wanted to talk to her.
St. Peter nods his head to one side, and lo and behold who should
approach the priest but the Virgin Mary!
The priest is beside himself, and he manages to say, Mother, I
have always been a great admirer of yours, and have studied
everything I could about you and followed your life as best I
could. I have studied every painting and portrait ever made of
you, and I've noticed that you are always protrayed with a
slightly sad look on your face. I have always, always wondered
what it was that made you sad. Would you please tell me?
Well, says Mother Mary, honestly, I was really hoping for a girl.
Tortfeasor Woops>(Woops):
Notnick @Bermuda>(@Bermuda):
I am wondering if the Platinum move is only because of the supply problem or is it really one of the 'up' indicators that we have been looking for?
Mike Sheller @the Charts>(@the Charts):
This could put stockmarket participants into a final frenzy. If the precious advance with bonds and stocks, this would fulfill an important timing requirement for the paper bull. After all 3 asset classes rise together, bonds top out first. As bonds decline stocks top out, with gold rising. Then stocks go down and gold moves into its peak. The only other time in this whole bull that that happened was in '93, when all were moving up. Then came '94 when bonds tanked, followed by a stock correction of the general market that was masked by the relatively shallow decline of the major averages. Then gold stagnated, and finally aborted in '96. Could be one more chance at this asset turnover coming up. If the T-Bond can't get past 114, then a reversal from there means paper has finally had it. Watch the DJ Utility Average. If it accompanies bonds up, then there's a blowoff coming.
panda @>(@):
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
nailz THANKS>(THANKS):
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
REB MJ.land>(MJ.land):
http://www.futuresmag.com/library/august96/compchrt.html
Consider the period 1961 to 1981. And consider the period 1981 to now. And consider the period now to ......
Yes, gold has been a dog the last 17 years. And financial assets were considered dead in 1981. The question is what happens the next twenty years. Continuation of rise for financial assets? That's not where my money is.
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Glenn AUAG>(AUAG):
Predictor @>(@):
Dow to 8000 by end of June. July ( down ) . August ( rebound ) . Sept through Mid-December ( down ) . Mid-December through mid-January ( up ) .
mid-January through Feb ( down ) . March ( rebound ) .
Gold:
Up slightly by the end of June ( $350-365 range ) ... Silver ( around $5 )
July down.
August through steady and slow increase in both metals.
December through March ... Strong for Metals.
Gold to $450 ( maybe a little higher 460-500 ) range.
Silver to $5.50 ( maybe a little higher 5.50 to 7.00 ) range.
Predictor @>(@):
George S. Cole Predictions>(Predictions):
GVC @ANOTHER BRE-X?>(@ANOTHER BRE-X?):
Headline: EXPLORATION COMPANY REPORTS BIG GOLD FIND
VANCOUVER, British Columbia:
A Vancouver exploration company headed by a promoter banned in British Columbia says it had more gold in its Nevada property than Bre-X Minerals claimed to have in Indonesia.
American Technology Exploration Corp., whose corporate address is a Vancouver post office box, says it Moapa property northeast of Las Vegas contains 76 million ounces of gold.
The initial feasibility study conducted by Kilborn Engineering on Bre-X's Indonesian property determined there were 71 million ounces of gold on that property. That calculation was later renounced after it was determined that drill information provided by Bre-X management was bogus.
American Technology's stock, which trades on the Nasdaq bulletin board, peaked at $8.75 on March 9.
The above news article appeared in the business section of the Las Vegas Review Journal the morning of June 6, 1997. I can't believe an exploration company would issue a press release like this after the Bre-X hoax and expect anyone to believe it.
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
bw us treasury bonds:>(us treasury bonds:):
FrenchMan Gold>(Gold):
Byron @ The Public Library>(@ The Public Library):
john hepcat@med.unc.edu>(hepcat@med.unc.edu):
Am following the Ballard thread with interest. Can definitely
vouch for Stevie - he knew about this way before it was
even a company - he developed the technology and was
the first to come up with the periodic table, as I recall.
It's a shame that other people usurp all his work. But that's
just the kind of guy he is, always way ahead of everyone and
generous with his knowledge. I would definitely recommend
E-mailing him, Mr. Tarnished. When I did, he offered me
a handsome sum to back up every tale he tells on this
site. You can believe I took advantage of his generous offer.
Stevie for Top Prophet and all-knowing master of time and space.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mike Sheller Contracting>(Contracting):
vronsky Just How High Can A Bull Fly? - PART V>(Just How High Can A Bull Fly? - PART V):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Tally HO
tarnished motoring@dinghy>(motoring@dinghy):
hot sunny day here; And to live life, I can't be stuck on a computer terminal all day.....Au's not the only thing that has glitter!
TTFN
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
steve puetz bpuetz.holli.com>(bpuetz.holli.com):
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Did yall hear that good ole boy, one of them many that call up CNBC and want to know jest what they should do because they are JEST GETTIN STARTED WITH A PORTFOLIO Hell boy, BUY with both hands!!
Now with that mentality don't you know when this thing does turn and these BOYS wantin to be in stocks they are goin to head to the gold
funds like crazy. Iffin you think 1993 was fun especially those of you that were in the Lexington Stragetic Investment fund, up 297%, that was a preview of what is to come!
Some uninformed sole yesterday refered to the forward selling of gold by the mines. I believe that most of the forward selling had been by the North American mines and that might be a cause of the gold price being
negatively effected for a bit. The only SA mine that I know of for sure that did a big forward sell was Western Areas. Western Areas was also the reason that Lexington Stregetic Investments had that find record in 1993.
Tortfeasor- THANKS FOR THE HUMOR, YOU OUGHT TO WRITE A BOOK
Tally HO
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
TED @belmontstakes>(@belmontstakes):
TED @Belmontstakes>(@Belmontstakes):
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Gold demand is up but so are the markets. Ask yourself what would average joe consumer do if his portfolio crashed? Would he run out and buy gold jewery or gold coins. I think not!!
TED @belmontstakes>(@belmontstakes):
ACW The god's have spoken!>(The god's have spoken!):
The God's have set the Golbug's an OMEN!
Touch Gold 1st.
Silver Charm 2nd.
Sorry Mr Bear!
Next week strange miraculous happenings are going to transpire in the Gold and Silver markets. The God's have spoken!!!
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler529.html
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
NJ joe>(joe):
ACW smokey>(smokey):
Kid Silver _>(_):
suggest? Bullion coins? Collectable gold and silver coins?
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
ACW crash>(crash):
Past facts show this to be far from the truth.
When the general stock market goes down, the gold stocks go down faster,longer.
Past down markets:
Major downs:
- - - INDU - - XAU
1987 -40.3% - -46.5%
1990 -18.6% - -37.8%
1994 -10.8% - -27.6%
1997 -10.6% - -25.9%
Days down:
1987 57 Days 58 Days
1990 37 107
1994 64 82
1997 25 41
The 1997 Dow drop was from 03-11 to 04-14.
The XAU drop was from 03-03 to 04-28.
This history shows us that any decline in the general market
could be a sell signal for the gold stocks.
Schippi schippi@geocities.com>(schippi@geocities.com):
5 Years, 30 day comparison and FSAGX hourly charts
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/5969
GVC @Steve Puetz>(@Steve Puetz):
Once the crash is over ( usually the tail end of a major decline ) , I believe that investors will begin to look at them much more seriously for 'insurance' purposes out of fear of possible future declines in the general market, especially once they see how well they 'hold up' during the initial decline phase. This will also create renewed interest in the metals themselves.
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mike Sheller The Astrological Investor>(The Astrological Investor):
steve puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
JDM jdmcclu@ibm.net>(jdmcclu@ibm.net):
TED @mainlander>(@mainlander):
RT @silver to $5.90>(@silver to $5.90):
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
Mike Sheller $2000 in 2000>($2000 in 2000):
Byron @ The Up and Coming Future:>(@ The Up and Coming Future:):
Mike Sheller The Lines are drawn>(The Lines are drawn):
NJ joe>(joe):
Bfiler @Home>(@Home):
Everytime I read about a referal to a comment or website, it's the same
2 or 3 websites....guru at Gold Eagle, blah blah blah. This is real scientific research and broad references brought here. If I had played ANY short term metals trade off the comments on this board since I started reading 6 months ago I'd be broke! Folks the kids on the AOL Iomega board made way better calls the blindfolded traders around here do.
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
tradered traded@tminet.com>(traded@tminet.com):
NJ joe>(joe):
Predictor @>(@):
I believe July will be an exceptional accumulation period.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Predictor @if I knew exact dates and times, I'd be rich>(@if I knew exact dates and times, I'd be rich):
I feel pretty confident about sometime in July being tough on the market ( general and metals ) . Good accumulation period for metals. I predict August as a rebound month for both. A bear market following for general market through February ( with some rebounds here and there ) and gradual bull for metals ( gold and silver in particular ) to run out until March or so. These forecasts have to do with economic projections ( interest rates, business cycles, inflation, debt ( esp. consumer ) , inventories, etc. ) . I believe this is an exceptional opportunity ( especially July ) to accumulate quality mining companies ( seniors; juniors and growth companies that will be producing a decent amount by January or have quality sites that could be takeover targets {selling individual or acquisitions of entire mining companies} ) . In my view, some of the majors look good and some of them stink. There are some junior and growth companies that will pound the hell out of some shorts ( especially those who I think may be prime takeover targets ) .
Predictor @>(@):
U.S. ( you name it ) , Canada ( Quebec issue ) , Japan ( banking system ) , China ( MNF status, HK, etc. ) , EMU, North Korea, Middle East, Russia ( as we have already seen; production related ) , and South Africa ( of course; production related ) .
prognosticator Elliottwave>(Elliottwave):
Elliott Wave theory holds that a rising wedge pattern only happens at the very end of a bull market move, and is an indication of the exhaustion of the move.
I think that Monday will start off with an up move, which will be reversed, into the start of the A Corrective Wave down. The Corrective B Wave up will likely establish new highs, but the final Corrective C wave down will be large, and very frightening for many investors.
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
lurker hi ho silver>(hi ho silver):
anyone know where I can buy 1,000 silver maple leafs. I dont mind getting screwed but I dont want to get raped.
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
vronsky GOLD: AN >(GOLD: AN ):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Jack To Fundy>(To Fundy):
Fundy ( 11:29 ) Its not like everyone here bought gold at
$800+ and are still holding and waiting for it to go
higher.
Actually there were many opportunities in both gold and
the mining stocks over the past 20 years.
I feel almost sure that gold amd silver at an
impenatrable base of $500 and $10 respectively would do
most, just fine.
But when considering all that paper manufactured by just
interest payments and the stock markets; both metals
should be much higher.
This doesn't consider the production supply deficits for
those metals.
I feel sure that their prices are being skillfully
rigged, by ebulent stock markets, currency manipulations
and so on. ( NOW WHO'S CAPABLE OF THIS? )
They make Bre-x and Delgratia look like kid stuff.
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Speaking of getting goat; even the distortions and outright lies of John ( hepcat/dragoo/Cool Water/Crab Rangoon/ Parlez Vous/ Zoinks Man/Moa/Mental Case/ can't even get me down today:
as My family and friends surprised me with a 25th Wedding anniversary party. They planned it to a 'T' and my wife and myself were truly surprised and shocked. And a wonderful time was had by all!
Will you still need me, will you still feed me when I'm 64. - Beatles 1967.
And once again, Congrats to you and yours also Mr. Front and consort!
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
RJ No time now>(No time now):
nikita nik@cal.usa>(nik@cal.usa):
will go up in the bear market if gold will rise
Suppose gold up to $450 majors want to cash in and rise prduction
And here it is BGO sitting on 30 mln, drilling one more hole in the hill.
.
PDG got smart I will pay BGO $50/oz ( it will give BGO 15$ US ) mine it 150$/oz get some nice 200$
after tax, rise divident for my shareholders.BGO shareholders should not refuse they have been waiting for so long and it is BEAR MARKET
So PDG aproaches BGO with 1.5 $ bln cash and BGO says See this jents over there? ..
ets
Now gess in what direction which gold minning stocks will go
if stock market crash, and gold will go to $450
RJ substitute an s>(substitute an s):
The Government Planner Washigton DC>(Washigton DC):
We have decided ( IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ) to keep the
dollar at its present level relative to the currencies in
order to kick start their economies.
The recent opinions of the Budesbank in their argument
with their government, have told us to leave gold alone,
and allow it to seek its own level.
Additionally we no other recourse, but to keep the stock
market within 15% of its recent highs, by various
government interventions. The small stocks will offer an
arena to keep the US investor from losing large amounts.
While our trade deficit will increase considerably, we
plan that when the deficit figures approach $280 billion.
that we will let the dollar slide.
Duncan To: Predictor>(To: Predictor):
Duncan To: Ray 16:29 (Sat)>(To: Ray 16:29 (Sat)):
South Africa ( not listed in North American stock exchanges ) that are
hedged.
George S. Cole Gold Stocks and Bear Markets>(Gold Stocks and Bear Markets):
Gold stocks have generally risen during previous bull markets, sometimes quite sharply. In 1987, for example, gold stocks soared along with the rest of the market. Today, by contrast, gold stocks have been dropping for 17 months, while the overall stock market soared. Gold stocks now are far cheaper relative to stocks overall than they were at the beginning of any previous bear market, with the possible exception of 1973.
Much will depend upon gold bullion's performance during the looming bear. Bullion has usually headed lower during previous bears, with the notable exception of 1973-75. But bullion too is far cheaper relative to the stock market than it was at the start of previous bears ( 1973-75 excepted ) . The Dow Industrials now is selling at over 22 times the bullion price. It was just 6 times the bullion price in 1987 and 8 times the bullion price in 1990.
With stocks more overvalued today than at any time in history, the next bear market will much more severe than most past bears -- more like 1929-32 or 1973-75, than 1987 or 1990. Gold generally does best in severe secular bears where the very future of the system comes into question.
We must also remember that the public is far more heavily involved in the stock market today than it was at previous peaks. Hence the political and economic implications of a severe and/or extended bear market are far greater than in the past. Very positive for gold.
I've said it before and will say it again, gold does best when capital starts to run scared. And I submit that capital will be very scared once the next bear market is in full swing.
TED @MOONEY>(@MOONEY):
TED @tort>(@tort):
Speed Mining Stocks and a Bear Market>(Mining Stocks and a Bear Market):
My understanding is that if you bought Homestake Mining in 1929 and held it, you made money all the way through the 1930's. The flight to quality by scared capital will move to mining stocks first IMHO, because stocks are what the investing public believes will succeed. Bullion will follow. Mutual funds are already making strong plays in the metals, witness the Tiger fund and platinum/palladium.
Vronsky: Thanks for the data on Stillwater.
TED @spectacularday>(@spectacularday):
Speed keep thinking>(keep thinking):
1. Bullion trading is not limited to commercial producers and jewelry makers per one of your posts yesterday. Two other groups impact prices, speculators and investors. Speculators like the U.S. Tiger fund have a tremendous short-term impact on markets, just look at Platinum/Palladium. Investors who purchase bullion and mining stocks are a wild card, hard to predict. Keep in mind that the mining stocks are a small arena and could be completely dominated by the same amount of money currently invested in say Coca Cola.
2. See George S. Cole's excellent posts detailing why this market differs from the one's charted and graphed yesterday by the sceptics.
As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another. Keep making us think!
The wise man sees trouble coming and hides himself, the fool goes on and is punished. I'm hiding my financial self behind bullion and mining stocks.
Predictor @>(@):
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
but a lot have that figure in their mind--where do you think the $1000 or 2000 estimates are based on? With regard to making money over the last 2 decades it certainly could have been done with gold or copper or rhodium especially rhodium if only once. The rumoured shortage of silver is certainly 15 years old. Perhaps it would be about $2 if there was no shortage?
I wonder what the price of gold would be in 1980 dollars. Cars that I buy are up about 300% since 1980. Maybe gold in 1980 dollars is currently worth about $150?
Prognosticator Elliottwave>(Elliottwave):
I think that I have identified a bull market termination pattern in gold called a 5th wave flat. If I am correct, gold will go down to about 338, basis the June contract, then up, with an initial target of 351, before a significant drop in price, then up again through late summer or fall.
vronsky Gold Stocks and Bear Markets>(Gold Stocks and Bear Markets):
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/butler529.html
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
when the dust settles to buy other things on sale!
Tally Ho
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
panda @>(@):
Lan Man Silver Companies>(Silver Companies):
Yes, I know others do the same thing, and as a rule I try to stay away from them. If I own shares in a company that announces the type of double dealing as above, I dump them and go on.
Remember the 6 Ps - and People should be at the top of the list. Ross Beatty and Bob Quartermain are two that you can trust. Companies that they are involved in include: PAASF, SSRIF. Both are pure silver plays, and yes, other companies do mine alot of silver but I look at them as gold plays with a silver bonus.
panda @weekend.stories>(@weekend.stories):
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/y0023_z00_2.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/z0009_3.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/f_gm_y000_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/08/z0009_1.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/97/06/07/z0009_2.html
panda @>(@):
Lan Man Just a minor delay, like 6 months!>(Just a minor delay, like 6 months!):
Any further delays and the 1997 export campaign will be into 1998!
Steve (Perth - Western Australia) steve@compsb.eepo.com.au>(steve@compsb.eepo.com.au):
SYDNEY MORNING HERALD Monday, June 9, 1997
Bank of England lifts interest rates
By GLENDA KORPORAAL in London
The Bank of England has taken the first opportunity to show its newly acquired independence by increasing British interest rates by 0.25 per cent on Friday.
The increase, which comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia has been cutting rates, was made at the first meeting of the Bank of England's new monetary policy committee.
The bank increased rates to 6.5 per cent because of its concerns that the strength of the economy would put further upward pressure on inflation and overshoot the target maximum of 2.5 per cent.
This is the first time in its 300 years that the bank has been able to decide interest rates rather than the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
The move to give the bank control over setting interest rates was one of the first decisions of the Blair Labour Government after its election on May 1.
The bank's decision - ahead of the Blair Government's first Budget on July 2 - shows its desire to carve out a reputation for being tough on inflation.
Until recently British financial markets have been treated to the embarrassing spectacle of the governor of the Bank of England going cap in hand to argue for an increase in interest rates each month, only to be rebuffed by a Chancellor whose primary concern was not to upset voters before the election.
The change has already led to a reduction in the premium paid by British borrowers on world financial markets compared to other European economies as international investors have become more confident that an independent Bank of England would be more vigilant in controlling inflation.
The bank's decision has come despite concerns that it may put upwards pressure on sterling.
Its new independence comes as Germany's Bundesbank - the most independent
central bank in the world - last week won its fight with German Chancellor Dr Helmut Kohl not to have the profits from the revaluations in the country's gold reserves included in the German Budget for 1997.
The bank was concerned the move was aimed at artificially boosting the German Budget for 1997 so the Government could meet Maastricht Treaty requirements for joining the single currency in January 1999 without taking tough action on the deficit. The battle ended in humiliation for Mr Kohl.
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Golds price was regulated until 72, so at the time of the 29 crash the profits of gold mining stocks were guaranteed.
P.R. Russia on borrowed time>(Russia on borrowed time):
http://www.russiatoday.com/rtoday/business/news/02.html
bw Re: Mike Sheller, contracting>(Re: Mike Sheller, contracting):
vronsky Just How High Can A Bull Fly? PART - V>(Just How High Can A Bull Fly? PART - V):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Magazine, etc.
http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
mergers and the like to try to keep profitable in this low gold environment. If the price ever starts to rise Blyvoors would have been the name to own but that is a changin and the new company could do verry well, I do not know that though yet, how the leverage will act. So that leaves Western Deep Levels. I have owned Kloof, my brokers pick, quite frankly I do not like it!
Lately I have been tryin to figure out which are the most leveraged mines and the way I do that is on days that the gold price moves up or down and the shares react I print out the Stock Smart chart that rates all the shares by % gain or %loss. So far those on my radar screen
Western Deep, still Blyvoors, Amax, Eldorado, PAASF, SSRIF etc.
I am still adding to tht list.
While I wait my largest junior position is in AZS, for obvious reasons.
Since there ain't no gold in the swanps of Borneo then the largest proven
reserve in the world is the properites held by Bema and Arizona Star and Bema has AZS up for sale. It don't take too much smart to figure out that one day soon one of them big mining companies can not stand it another day and will have to have AZS. Nuff said, lunch time!!
Tally HO
bw Just for fun>(Just for fun):
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Magazine, etc.
http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html
Speed Gov't vs. Mkt>(Gov't vs. Mkt):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Surveyor reily@harborside.com>(reily@harborside.com):
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Another fine stock that I have noticed has leverage is Eldorado and has other merrits worth lookin at. They have jest recognized the value
or rather undervalued reserves in SA and jest bought some, the first American company to venture into South Africa. and D.A has convensed me to take a substancial position in Aurizon- good folks, plenty potential.
Another that has the same merits as Blyvoors is Hecla. When the crowd starts to move they will buy Hecla. Another on the leveraged list is PAASF.
I mentioned Cons Modder in the first piece. Gold in South Africa is not found in the nugget form as found in the western USA. It must be extracted from rock in a crushing and chemical process. But Cons Modder's
property has the highest gold values and closest to nugget form in
Africa. Cons Modder has jest been merged with Harmony. Now that could be a perfect combination, high gold values, goood management, plenty of capitol. Harmony and Durban Deep [Blyvoors merges with DD] are companies that deserve consideration by any serious investor.
Desert time!
Tally Ho
Auric @home>(@home):
Surveyor: Hell, jump right in. I'm in the same
boat, I've just learned to go ahead and spout off. I
have developed a taste for shoe leather in the
process!
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
GVC @Fidelity weekly close stochastic charts>(@Fidelity weekly close stochastic charts):
Either we have a liftoff type of rally this week or we plunge again to test that line one more time. I'm betting on the upside mainly because FDPMX had a strong finish this week gaining over 2% in the last 2 days and finishing above last weeks close in what could be viewed as a reversal week.
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Tortfeasor Joke of the day>(Joke of the day):
Two naked statues, a man and a woman, had been standing looking at
each other, in a park, for a hundred years. An angel came to visit them and said that since they had stood there so patiently through all the summers and winters, they would be rewarded by half an hour of human life to do what they had been wanting to do most.
So the two statues came to life, looked at each other, and laughed a
bit and said shall we? then, yes let's and they slipped off behind some bushes and there was a lot of rustling. After a quarter of an hour, they came out from behind the bushes all hot and flustered and happy. The angel said they had only used half their time and why didn't they start all over again. So the statues giggled a bit and the man statue said to the woman statue, OK, let's do it again, only this time we'll do it the other way around. I'll hold down the pigeon and you crap on it!
Speed @home>(@home):
Jack Since 1980>(Since 1980):
Mr Bear and Fundy: Since 1980, the supply of paper money
has increased by a considerable amount and so has
inflation. Can you explain that?
My thinking is that coordinted currency manipulations
have kept to some degree, international confidence in
paper money.
It has also raped the citizens of the participating
countries of the hope for a secure future because they
cannot plan for tomorrow in such an atmosphere.
Trust in unbacked paper currencies, means trust in
government and the politicians.
Jack Since 1980>(Since 1980):
Mr Bear and Fundy: Since 1980, the supply of paper money
has increased by a considerable amount and so has
inflation. Can you explain that?
My thinking is that coordinted currency manipulations
have kept to some degree, international confidence in
paper money.
It has also raped the citizens of the participating
countries of the hope for a secure future because they
cannot plan for tomorrow in such an atmosphere.
Trust in unbacked paper currencies, means trust in
government and the politicians.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Test @test>(@test):
Last post on my screen is 15:53.
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
Further to Ray's comments, I agree fully on Western
Deep Levels. But I also feel that Durban Deep is severely
undervalued based on its low cost of reserves and capacity.
It is my favorite long term but it could have a little more
downside for the present. Harmony is also good paricularly
since it took over Unisel.
The problem with Kloof is that it is really 3 mines -
Kloof, Leudoorn, and Libanon. Kloof itself it excellent,
but Im sure the other two mines operate at a loss. If
the gold price went to say 425 for example the whole
complex would become profitable but when the price is
where it is the good operation has to carry the bad
parts of the company.
Beatrix is a great low cost mine - preferable
generally speaking to driefontein but not very exciting.
Fregold is also okay at the price. Avgold could be a
future winner but ONLY at a high god price.
In the Platinum sector, I like Lebowa or maybe PP
Rust as a second choice.
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near - 6/8/97 Report>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near - 6/8/97 Report):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
Auric @suggestion>(@suggestion):
Surveyor: One idea would be to set up with a deep
discount broker and trade the individual stocks of a
particular index. It has been suggested here that
the HUI index stocks might be better than the XAU
due to less forward selling of gold in those stocks.
I think costs and simplicity would be similar.
Gives you the added advantage of no hidden costs
like 12-b, management fee etc. Might be worth
investigating.
Duncan For: John Disney>(For: John Disney):
possibility of it reopening in the forseeable future?
REB na>(na):
Duncan To: Ray (10:10)>(To: Ray (10:10)):
Perhaps John Disney could help ( with some names of hedged S.A. gold
mining companies ) . The only South African gold company that I hold is
apparently about 50% hedged ( Joel ) .
Duncan To: Lan Man (10:47)>(To: Lan Man (10:47)):
panda @>(@):
Jack Strange Times>(Strange Times):
These are very strange times and its very difficult to
find an answer.
On one side, the markets ( At least the Major Stocks ) are
doing extremely well.
On the other hand, I see young homeless families standing
on street corner's, with their Will work for Food
Sign's.
Last summer while on jury duty and walking in from my
parking area, I seen homeless people arising from their
nights sleep from every parking lot on the way to the
courthouse. The politicians love this, as it gives them
a platform to create a little fear, and subsequent power.
Thing's are not so good, but the government statistics
say otherwise. What hell is going on?
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
PANDA & MOONEY & TED & TARNISHED:
PANDA: Just ot let you know that you were dead on about the rise in Pal and Plat affecting the price of Oils. Apparently, they are used in the creation of High Grade gasoline. Thanks for the insite.
MOONEY: Congrats friend and take the next 25 one at a time... You know the strain the first 25 caused and you are getting older !! ( :- )
TED: Congrats on the 17 this year .... ROOKIE !!! ( :- )
TARNISHED: Isn't ti wonderful that the truly GREAT hockey players like SteveyY come from ONTARIO ! AND yes, they really do have Cehnehdehiehn citizenship even if they're born in BC ! ( :- )
TTFN
Mike Sheller The Wages of Sin>(The Wages of Sin):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
TED @front>(@front):
No more hockey for a while and will have to go and try and find a life..
MGraves: Wayne and the boys would have put up a better fight than Lingross and the Flyboys....and to think Eric thought he was too good fer Quebec....
Mike Sheller CB's give me the Heebie Jeebies>(CB's give me the Heebie Jeebies):
Jack Goldminer's>(Goldminer's):
Steve Puetz: In relation to gold mining companies:
How do you see those companies with good current assets,
some in the form of bullion and having successful
production track records ( profits and/or cash flow ) , with
small to very small current liabilities?
I know that blue sky puts cash into the coffers of many
companies, by way of new issues, but the companies that I
like have some blue sky, but seem to want real results
before they decide the route they will take.
Mike Sheller Up Up & Away>(Up Up & Away):
George S. Cole Gold Bottom>(Gold Bottom):
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
A GUY COULD ALMOST GET EXCITED
TALLY HO
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
Auric @home >(@home ):
George S. Cole @ 19:10- Re: Australian Dollar vs.
Gold: Is this the bottom you have been
anticipating? What are the things to keep an eye on
now?
The Government Planner's Washington DC>(Washington DC):
Have no fear, we are here to help you on your trip to
UTOPIA. BUBBA has given us his word and we are
responsible.
Spud Master Day of the Triffids>(Day of the Triffids):
Spud Master errors>(errors):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Auric Impressed>(Impressed):
Mike Sheller @ 19:02- Well done. Deserves a spot at
Vronsky's.
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Steve: I like silver!
Speed Math Teacher!>(Math Teacher!):
WDL @currencies>(@currencies):
nailz @20 years ago today>(@20 years ago today):
panda @>(@):
Speed help!>(help!):
Ken @Long time listener, first time caller>(@Long time listener, first time caller):
How are Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore doing?
nailz @CONFUSED>(@CONFUSED):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
LogicBank *)(*>(*)(*):
Also,
IF platinum prices affect the oil complex, I think it will be seen in gasoline and not crude prices. Platimum is used 'post crude' in the refining process to increase the octane value of gasoline ( they call it platforming ) .
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
To Ken in Kansas City Don't be nervous>(Don't be nervous):
p.s. How about Luv your show? or Thanks for taking my call?
M.Graves mgraves@glinx.com>(mgraves@glinx.com):
panda @>(@):
Apparently, this is one school that you cannot flunk out of! That is, if you are the 'right' students! Think of the implications of what we are witnessing right now. The paper market isn't working in palladium. Debtors ( shorts ) are being given more time to pay their debt back. Clearly, a default has taken place before our eyes, except, that it hasn't, because that would be in bad taste. ;- ) ) George Orwell, where are you! Speak to me from the nether world!
Tortfeasor Update>(Update):
Tortfeasor Basketball break>(Basketball break):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Ken What?>(What?):
Kansas City? I was asking about the Far East.
D.A. pick.your.banks.carefully>(pick.your.banks.carefully):
If you had put your twenty dollars in a German, Japanese or Italian bank or many others you would have 0. Just because the USA has come out on the right side of a few world wars and has by and large been the most stable and powerful country over the last 70 years doesn't mean this will always be so. While I don't mean to suggest that the downfall of the US is immenent, the stability of the banking system worldwide is in some doubt. The outcome might not be catastrophic in an economic sense, but it may well be so for bond holders. There are any number of countries that may find it easier to just walk from their debts. The South Americans did it en masse not too long ago, why not the Italians, the Belgians, or even gasp, the Japanese.
Holding gold or other physical commodities is just a hedge. The relative value of these things remains fairly constant over intermediate time with relation to the cost of other goods and services. As an investment vehicle, one would hope that the value would appreciate with respect to other goods and services. The case can be made that some commodities are extremely inexpensive based on a number of fundamental concerns. Silver, for one seems to fit well in this category. The grapevine is starting to buzz with respect to this one. It is not a time to be short.
Early levels in the Pa market are 200 - 250. Looks like Nasdaq market makers.
Organ @defaults>(@defaults):
- this debt was accumulated from 8 years of patient defaults. This money has to be made up by Cook County taxpayers. A few more of these and the Steve Puetz scenerio may be upon us!
M.Graves @ Valley>(@ Valley):
EWP Question for Steve P.>(Question for Steve P.):
panda @>(@):
What most are looking for, IMHO, is the added initial leverage available through options, futures, and stocks. If things are perceived as heading too far 'south', the physical will be the only place to be. If there are any doubters, just look at the palladium 'forward markets' and judge for yourself. The 'final' outcome here, will be very interesting indeed.
Rhodium anybody?
NJ SPOOs>(SPOOs):
nailz @GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT>(@GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT):
BIG TRADER Thoughts>(Thoughts):
“ “ Now that the “discount bid at spot” is running 3 or 4 to one
you can be real sure retail isn’t going to reach for it! They would
start a free for all! But they have to bid, it isn’t going to come
from the sky. No wonder the big holders are “standing
down”! How are they going to handle the paper that the Asians
are trying to sell? That’s a good one, because they hold physical
to paper at 20 to 1 and spot will go thru the roof if they dump it!
Well, with a roll-over of most existing deals being the only option, a
good deal of “old forward gold paper” will be put on the street
at whatever price. Nobody is going to pay par for this stuff when
it was written at a premium to spot during a much higher price.
And now that new supply can’t be pulled from retail to cover the
paper the writers are the only bidders for their own stuff. But if
any of it trades at a big discount, it’s going to hammer what‘s left
to the point that the banks will call the loans! If one big boy
grabs the physical during the next month or so it’ll take the
whole thing down. “ “
nailz @GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT>(@GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT):
panda @>(@):
Organ @ Chicago>(@ Chicago):
For Chicago futures prices around the clock. Japanese Yen UP against the USD, Swiss and Mark less so. S&P's and currencies at this site.
I've enjoyed your essays very much, Steve. Your thinking is sharp, but after the Leviathan Bull rally on Friday it looks like it will take yet more time to happen. My friend in the bond pits here has suggested that the Chinese were big buyers of T-bonds on Friday ( there was also alot of short covering ) . If the Chinese have been coerced to buy U.S. debt ( amazing -- the Chinese are usually not effectively bullied on anything ) then Clinton's imperial cycle of high budget and trade deficits, balanced by high speculative inflows can continue. I'm going to stop betting against this stock market until I can see that interest for U.S. debt has dried up.
nailz @GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT>(@GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT):
Steve Puetz @ defaults>(@ defaults):
Steve Puetz @ EWP>(@ EWP):
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
Auric @In it with both feet>(@In it with both feet):
Steve Peutz @ 20:53- If I read Ted Butler, you, and
John Templeton correcly, those who are holding gold
now should hold on to it? I just bought a
s---load!
Steve Puetz @ PANDA>(@ PANDA):
Steve Puetz @ NJ>(@ NJ):
auroelf a good book>(a good book):
Incidentally, the displacement of paper money by cyber-finance leaves little likelihood of a return to gold money, which was previously replaced by paper. In some respects, our goldbug point of view is doubly outdated if we expect gold ever to serve as a recognized medium of exchange again, except as any other commodity might, for specific uses. Much food for thought.
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
You can buy the silver for a few cents below spot and delivery runs about $26.47 US mail insured for each 714 oz.
QT @>(@):
Perhaps just a curiosity, but lately Mining Stocks have behaved as if they were the empathetic housewife in the household Gold. You've got to picture Gold as a tempermental Tenor who moves about his house singing Italian Operas. When Gold moves upstairs to the balcony, into higher atmospheres, in search of cleaner more rarified airs, she whiplashes aside Gold, stands on his sholders and does somethig akin to a victory jig for the listening impaired up there for all the neighbors to see, least there be any doubt as to her husbands mood. She intends to amplify.
When Gold's mood darkens, his temper slouches, she's to be found clutching at Gold's ankles, sobbing, and cannot be consoled. Gold can be seen dragging her across the linoleum, as we speak... will somebody please call the police,,,
If and when, in all probability when is the operand, when Gold makes a move, I would predict the same or similar habit by this sensitive damsel. Mining stocks can be said to ride the whip of golds movement. The two are inextricably related, and of late this has been their relationship. At least thats what the neighbors have been saying. Hedges and hysterics aside the jist of what I'm saying here is the rule rather than the exception.
Hope I've got this site right,,,primitive but true, lately,,,
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/Ssan/goldpric.htm
And as for Silver,,, Sheller called it months ago, now you players out there can either ride or watch. Surf's goin' ta be up in the next 30 days. You can either catch the Kahuna you've been waiting for, or stay on the beach with your Polariods,,,let the ears listen.
Kid Silver _>(_):
prices on junk silver?
D.A. the.rumor.mill>(the.rumor.mill):
The latest rumor that I have heard on the silver market has one fund short to the tune of about 60MM oz. Stops are supposedly somewhere around 490 - 500 basis July. Combine this with another rumor of a large OTC option expiring soon at $5.00 and the potential for fireworks is large. Who knows whats fact or whats fiction, reality is that lease rates are jumping and someone or many are bidding aggressively for physical metal.
Last quotes I have in Pa are 215 - 250, Pl 470 - 510. Yen trading around 113. August gold around 347.10.
Kid Silver _>(_):
Eagle Coins or Collectable Coins?
Why?
BTW I really enjoy reading your column at Gold Eagle.
How about an article on silver?
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
http://www.tradeshop.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/raylc/ajpm/silver.cgi
geff geff@ziplink.com>(geff@ziplink.com):
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Magazine, etc.
http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Tortfeasor Basketball update>(Basketball update):
HRK1 @great.white>(@great.white):
Guzman @Fell for it>(@Fell for it):
D.A., Bungles happen in high places. Brei cheese is
very in these days.
EWP To Steve P.>(To Steve P.):
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Tortfeasor Joke for Ted>(Joke for Ted):
Two drunks are driving down the highway, drinking their beer. All of a
sudden the driver notices lights flashing in his mirror; the cops are on
his tail.
His buddy says, What are we going to do? The driver says, Don't
worry. Just do exactly what I tell you and everything will work out
perfectly.
First, peel the labels off our beer bottles and we'll each stick one on
ourforehead. Then shove the bottles underneath the seat, and let me do
the talking.
They pull over and the cop walks up to the car. He looks at them kind
of funny, but asks to see the guy's driver's license. And he asks
him, Have you been drinking?
Oh, no, sir, the driver replies.
I noticed you weaving back and forth across the highway. Are you
'sure' you haven't been drinking? the cop asks.
Oh, no, sir, the drunk answers. We haven't had a thing to drink
tonight.
Well, I've got to ask you, says the cop, What on earth are those
things on your forehead?
That's easy, Officer, says the drunk. You see, we're both
alcoholics, and we're on the Patch!
Ray raydm@iamerica.net>(raydm@iamerica.net):
Jefferson Coin and Bullion, Jefferson Financial 800-877-8847.
He sold Blanchard & Co. several years ago to GE.
Tally Ho
Ken is it goin up or down>(is it goin up or down):
Just read Two Down, Two To Go, on Gold-Eagle. I
would like any gold bear to refute the points made
by the author.
TED @Tort>(@Tort):
GFD WHY THE GOLD BULLS ARE WRONG>(WHY THE GOLD BULLS ARE WRONG):
I suggest that bullion will lead gold stocks in the next market and both will do spectacularly whether there is a stock market crash or not.
The reasons for this are essentially two fold. Firstly, bullion will skyrocket for all the reasons that Ted Butler has documented. However, even he may be too conservative in his outlook for one simple reason. Much of the existing stockpiles of gold and silver may have already been loaned out. For example, while statistics indicate aboveground stockpiles of 450 moz of silver it is NOT known much of that has been loaned out. The end could be a lot closer than we think, particularly if there has been asian investment hoarding going on, providing a ready market for those who wish to convert borrowed metal to cash as part of some derivitives program.
Secondly, as many have mentioned here, finacial inflation over the last two decades means that precious metal assets ( bullion and stocks ) are a small fraction of total financial assets. Suppose Fidelity decides that to preserve it's market share it should start to emulate Tiger Fund - not to mention George Soros.
I will contend the Tiger Fund's sucess makes massive investment hoarding a credible strategy for major financial players. Big Trader may have gotten in first but I doubt that he will be last. Given the over extension of current financial markets, this could be the only politically safe way to make a few quick bilions. Soros could short a currency but could wind up being crucified both finacially and politically in a political climate much less lassez faire than a few years ago. On the other hand, since conventional wisdom states that gold is obsolete who should care if it skyrockets?
Given the current climate in the markets, if things start to really move in gold and silver they may have their own mania. In fact, a stupendous surge in precious metals may be the final act of the current financial mania! In this case the metals could parabolic spectacularly but have a shorter life span.
MoreGold @relationships>(@relationships):
We urge you to keep in mind Dinesism #10, the Dines Wolfpack Theory, predicting that the four precious metals tend to move together ( gold, silver, platinum, palladium ) and the fact that the latter two are rising strongly suggests that strength in gold and silver is imminent.
If the pa & pl rally holds and is for real, this should just be a matter of time.
D.A.: enjoy your updates, keep them comming.
Steve Peutz, agree with you, when the rubber band snaps, the Gold rally
should be sharply vertical. I like your price target, non of this 410. or 450.
Market may be starting to price the pa pl factor in, one of the Gold calls I own was up 40% intra-day from Thursday to Friday.
Speaking of inflation, I priced a pickup truck in 1991 at approx. $C13000. Today the same runs around $25000. I think this is a little more
than the 2.5% we keep hearing......
Steve Puetz @ Ray>(@ Ray):
BIG TRADER thoughts>(thoughts):
So many off market forward gold deals were done without
any gold changing hands! Big buyers got on the paper side
of these things and thought that the CB’s were backing the
dealer banks by written contract. If the mines couldn’t
perform the banks would .......! But what if in some deals
the mines were not involved at all ? Just off market option
trades as backing? And some of the paper buyers shorted
the futures in a big way to cover . And now whatever gold
that was to back these deals is found to be “not there”?
And everybody was looking at all this paper being sold
and thought there must be one hell of a lot of gold being
sold!
Now during the last six months the price has fallen, but
I have to ask, “who has got who”?
Steve Puetz @ auroelf>(@ auroelf):
Steve Puetz @ reply to DA>(@ reply to DA):
GFD Who Indeed>(Who Indeed):
As for the deals that you are talking about I suspect that they will be quietly wound down - with the helpful assistance of the central banks. That is, the deals will be essentialy canceled out.
The real question is what will be seen in the markets once this obscuring cloud of paper dissappears
Yellow palladium anyone
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
QT @>(@):
Little Trader @Bigtrader>(@Bigtrader):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
QT @>(@):
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
Virtual Eagle’s eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by the Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Steve Puetz :
Steve, busy boy tonight... 22 posts later and you're getting like dear old EARL... have an opinion once in a while will ya ! ( :- ) ) ) )
TTFN
BIG TRADER thoughts>(thoughts):
When we “wound down” and “cancel out” smallest part of
this paper market it take out comex and otc paper completely!
Then you must settle several hundred million ozs with london.
The ability of the entire worldwide gold mining and trading
community to sell a product will be destroyed in short time.
The metal market as we know it from 1968 will end !
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
DocDuke Albuquirky>(Albuquirky):
Bigger Trader very@big.com>(very@big.com):
madog 1st TIME SINCE JAN.1996>(1st TIME SINCE JAN.1996):
a long convergence begining in the middle of 1996 and leading up to May 1997, the indicator has finally broken over in to the BUY zone based on the weekly gold chart. It is the first time the indicator has entered the buy zone since late December 1995.
Translation-------------- TREND IS GOING TO CHANGE SOON!!!!!!
Touch Gold and Silver Charm winning the Belmont Stakes!!!
Could only mean one thing. Happy trading
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Auroelf - Do you SERIOUSLY belive this modern world e-mail script B.S. will totally replace hard money in our not-too-distant future?
Incidentally, the displacement of paper money by cyber-finance
leaves little likelihood of a return to gold money, which was
previously replaced by paper. In some respects, our goldbug point
of view is doubly outdated if we expect gold ever to serve as a
recognized medium of exchange again,...
Have you comprehended even a fraction of information given to you at this site?
Front - Thanks again and thanks for the heartfelt advice. Can't wait to retire to Calabogie ( or some such place ) and start washing dishes! :- )
Ted - Next Year for N.Y.? Wish I could even remember my 17th!
Prognosticator @ 9:41 - Go ahead! ( Sounds much more official than predictor - doesn't it? ) But do me a favour and post as Prognosticator 2 just so's no one mixes up with the original. :- )
Little Trader @bigtrader>(@bigtrader):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Steve Peutz re 23:41 & Mooney :
No kiddin' .... does get addictive doesn't it. The great thing is that there are as many opinions as people but everyone seems willing ot listen ( at least until they disagree haha ) . Enjoy ...
Mooney: I remember my 17th....I had hair then !!!!!
TTFN
Auric Ready>(Ready):
Three posts from BT in one night. Are you strapped
in?
Biggest Trader biggest@huge.com>(biggest@huge.com):
The Government Planners Washington, D.C.>(Washington, D.C.):
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
Biggest Big Trader @smallertraders>(@smallertraders):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
TED:
Just a blip in time eh! Trust me, it all depends on who you spend it with my lad !!!!
TTFN
QT @>(@):
These Russians are helping drive home a point the Kid should be exposed to. Maybe you should take this conversation to an E-mail level withhim and give him some advise of value. Whether or not the advise conforms to the thesis of yor TC, which I will get but haven't yet, follow through on your obligations. If you choose to advise DO IT.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Tiny Trader tiny@little.com>(tiny@little.com):
MR. BEAR @ the cave>(@ the cave):
Mooney -United States Postal Service 1-800-222-1811 They are open 24hrs, give them a call. 50lbs $3,500.00 insured with return receipt = $25.95 and they come to your front door.
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Mr.Bear:
$25.95 and they come to your front door
Should I leave the light on? I'm going to bed before they arrive !!!
CIAO & TTFN
RJ rjd@pacbell.com>(rjd@pacbell.com):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Steve Puetz - I disagree. I believe Silver will settle in at the very long term historical relationhip of about 16 /1.
All - With the marked increase of commentary about Silver here I believe that it can be taken as another indicator that Silver is about to have the marked increase that most here are predicting, and very soon at that. I remember about a year ago, those of us that even mentioned Silver or the Gold/Silver relationship were in a very small minority and some of the pundits were even expousing the favourite brainwashing line of the financial community that Silver is no longer a monetary metal and only an industrial one. AAR - to make another of my long stories short - I decided that all the Silver talk lately was a definite sign. Further Mr. Sheller ( one of the local interpreters of signs ) mentioned July looks good for Silver. So I thinks to meself - July not that far away, something funny happening with other white metals, what should I do? Kept thinking and then all of a sudden - Whammo - the family and friends throw a SILVER wedding anniversary for Mr. and Mrs. MOONEY ( at this point I should repeat MY previously stated interest in Silver and the fact that others have reported here that the MOON is the celestial object which represents Silver ) . Others here say grab some physical metal. 'Good idea' I say to myself and today ( Sunday afternoon ) I set off to the local mega-mall where I know a certain coin shop has a large supply of pre-'66 Canadian halfs and dollars for good prices. Store has been there as at least 15 years. Haven't been to that mall in couple months. Store gone. Sure hope Silver doesn't open limit up and start a panic before I make my Mooney purchase!
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Mooney @GFD>(@GFD):
RJ (SHORT SQEEZE PART II)>((SHORT SQEEZE PART II)):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Auric home>(home):
RJ: I say gold will touch $400 before $325. Agree
or disagree?
w
Reify @adding points>(@adding points):
From my studies of historic basing patterns, the last 17 weeks, should break out sharply from these levels for the next couple of months.
The ratio of XAU to spot that Kaplan uses in his daily analysis, states that when the differential is below 260 it begins getting bearish and above bullish. Now 244. This indicator should now start adjusting to the upside, which should confirm GFD's theory of bullion leading the stocks to the upside.
In any case we should start feeling some more pleasurable emotions in the near future. How much crying can these souls take?
tarnished @Dinghy>(@Dinghy):
Sorry quebec.....but that was my bid for national unity....and the Rocket
and Lafleurs were Canadians then.
BTW...What a class act Stevie was, his first comment was not for his cup victory but for how amiss things are without Don Cherry present....
Lets see another athelete demonstrait that kind of selflessness!
TTFN
RJ (I like a sure bet)>((I like a sure bet)):
MADOG MARKETS TELL THE TRADE >(MARKETS TELL THE TRADE ):
Mooney @Earl>(@Earl):
Silver Futures Traders - All of our optimism aside, Fridays chart does not look great given the highs and then the weak close. Look at Bart's 24 hour spot chart. One thing I have noticed in the past is that regardless of weekend action, New York almost always has some trading at the opening very close to Friday's close. If this happens this morning at the opening and considering the U.S. dollar weak against Yen overnight, then it may be a good 'window of opportunity' to pick up some Silver if that's one's intentions. Good Tradin' in '97!
MADOG MOONEY>(MOONEY):
Auric Philanthropy 101>(Philanthropy 101):
RJ @ 00:59- What about $420 Gold between now and
Dec.31, 1997? Am I gonna owe $420 to charity, or is
WW?
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
anyone have an idea what effect this will have on the market?
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
I have been sarcastic recently with only one participant that I know of and that is a person who many times in the last year has been very rude and often attacked other participants just for the fun of it. He even has made up falsehoods and lies and stated such as facts here to create dissention. This weekend his lies were so gross that if I had the time and inclination, ( and I guess it would help if I lived in the States as that's where he does ) , I would sue the person for slander.
BTW - Most of us Canucks would appreciate it if you would let us know via a timely post when your indicator says that the Canadian dollar is finally about to reverse and head north! :- )
Mooney @kuston>(@kuston):
Surveyor reily@harborside.com>(reily@harborside.com):
Auric - thank you for your Sunday, 18:01 re: HUI vs. a basket of the individual gold mining stocks with a deep discount broker.
Wish I wasn't trading Keogh funds; otherwise I would just go for the bullion with most of you!
Roebear @Hersheypark>(@Hersheypark):
Mooney @Silver>(@Silver):
Lan Man Whats This?>(Whats This?):
At the same time Forward rates went down.
Test @Test>(@Test):
Would like to hear Vieserre on BT. Is this the real
deal that posted last night?
kuston thansen@cris.com>(thansen@cris.com):
shake out the speculators. Their % returns would will be less then they
use to be. Applying that to the PL/PA market : I think alot of money
has been made already, how much is left at these levels? That would lead
me to think everyone left really want the stuff and have the money. I
don't think the long side will change. The short side I don't know about.
Has anyone followed the open interest in PL/PA for the end of the year?
Dec/Feb98? There sure is a large open interest? If I was walking
in the Tiger's funds shoes I would have alot of futures contracts spread
out as far as I could. Then I would start acquiring all the metal I
could. I wouldn't be selling anything until I had collected on the
contracts. If so, then these are really cheap right now. Any comments?
Mooney 01:01: silver still closed above the 18 day MA. So I'm still long.
Earl: Yes I don't understand BT's first post. What metal is he talking
about? Gold? I thought the Asains were buying not selling. I look
forward to an explaination.
Jack Good Material>(Good Material):
Steve Puetz: Thanks for the many fine posts and the
searching direct answers.
Speed: Forgot to ask Fundy how much of the $277 he would
have left after taxes.
Fundy: Wish that my dad had bought a farm on Long Island
in 1950, even after property taxes and special
assessments - never mind the $20 ounce.
Long Gone Conceding>(Conceding):
No Mas! I quit.
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Magazine, etc.
http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html
NBA Update>(Update):
The Mailman delivered. It's 2-2, pal.
LSU Tiger @NBA>(@NBA):
Anybody remember Pete Maravich? That boy could play
basketball.
Perfesser @Educating RJ >(@Educating RJ ):
Henry V Act 3 Scene 1: To the breach indeed! FWIW
Shakespeare has much to say about Gold.
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
Some info on hedging in RSA mines. Vaal Reef has sold
forward about 55% of production over next 4 years at
roughly 1720 to 2600 Rands/once. At current rand rate,
equates to 385$/oz rising to 580 in out year. Western
Deep Levels hedges only about 20% at about the same
rand prices. This info is from the Mining Journal and was
easy to get.
If there is more interest in this, I can probably
get more info, but it will be harder ( old newspapers
kind of thing )
Howard Cossell Telling it like it is>(Telling it like it is):
Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!
Howard Cossell Telling it like it is>(Telling it like it is):
Jazz took two in a row from the Chicago Bulls. The
Chicago Bulls are paper tigers. Da Bulls are
getting old. Them paper traders at the Chicago pits
will have to fend off silver tipped arrows. Serves
them right! Thwock!
John Disney jdisney@iafrica.com>(jdisney@iafrica.com):
This mine is very low grade and high cost. It has been
closed for some time. I understand a sustained platinum
price of over 525$/oz would be required to consider
opening it. Also heavy capex would be needed.
Northam would be a better speculation. This mine is
also high cost and unprofitable at prior prices. Now
at prices of over 450$/oz, Im sure it is making money.
It is also really cheap - ( 2.5 Rand ) . My info on Norilsk
is that it only produces half a million ounces plat and
1.5 mil palladium per year. Russians selling twice that
for three years so not surprising if stockpiles exhausted.
Seems everything about Russia has been overstated, ie
their army, their missiles, their platinum group metals,
and presumably their diamonds too.
Also understand automakers will go back to tri
catalists from Palladium catalyst ( this will boost Rhodium consumption
and price of same - ) . Good for RSA as they heavy rhodium
producers, while Russia makes disproportionately high
palladium . Automakers are probably in trouble but they
will lie about that and soon claim to have developed a
new converter that does not require platinum. They may
even buy into the desert dirt BS just to try and
alleviate platinum price problem. Dont think this will
work this time around.
Duncan To: John Disney>(To: John Disney):
and a gentleman!
Ken Not in Kansas, Dorothy>(Not in Kansas, Dorothy):
Any updates on the lease rate in Palladium and
Platinum? What about Silver and Gold. How are the
precious metals doing?
George S. Cole Russian Gold>(Russian Gold):
From today's N Y TIMES:
June 9, 1997
Pristine Russian Far East Sees Its Fate in Gold
In This Article
An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice
Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial
Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On
Map
Esso, Kamchatka
By MICHAEL SPECTER
SSO, Russia -- The basic view from this mountain village hasn't changed for 7,000
years, since a giant reservoir of molten lava crested over to form the mighty peak of
Asia's largest and most active volcano. Eagles and falcons dance through the crisp air.
Not far away, the world's biggest population of grizzly bears -- shaking off their winter
slumber -- forage for salmon as big as dogs.
There is nothing else in Russia, and little left on earth, like Kamchatka. A peninsula the size of
California, with just one long, partly paved road, it has more earthquakes and live volcanoes --
including Asia's biggest and most active, Klyuchevskaya Sopka -- than anywhere else. Thanks
to its fertile rivers, lakes and seas, the region accounts for nearly half the fish produced in
Russia.
But while Kamchatka, in Russia's Far East, is one of the last pristine places on the planet, it
has been left that way by accident. More than 5,000 miles from Moscow, the region was
protected by the Soviet Union because it was home to a nuclear submarine base in the port city
of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. For decades it was off limits to all but natives, sailors and
fishermen. The staggering wealth that lies beneath the soil -- gold, silver, platinum and more --
has never been touched.
But the temptations have never been greater, because every year Kamchatka draws closer to
death.
There is a way to save Kamchatka, said Aleksandr A. Orlov, the chief of the regional
administration's department of Energy, Mineral Resources and Communication. And
everybody knows what it is: we have to dig for gold. I myself want as much wild nature as
possible. We all do. But first of all, people should have a good life. To live here we need
development. Without it we should just turn this place into a wild park or game reserve and
move away. Because if they stay people are going to starve.
The collapse of Communism, hard as it has been on many Russian provinces, has put special
pressures on Kamchatka. Unique in so many ways -- it is, after all, so far east of Moscow that
it is almost west of Moscow -- Kamchatka nonetheless presents the most striking example of
the impossible struggle remote regions face in adapting themselves to the realities of the new
Russia.
The subsidies, incentives and discounts that Soviet leaders doled out for living in Siberia and
the distant north are gone now and nothing that people did here in the old economy makes
sense anymore. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, where 300,000 of the region's 400,000 people
live and where almost no produce grows and everything must be imported, is among the
nation's most expensive urban areas. Bread here costs three times as much as in Moscow.
Unemployment is nearly 30 percent. In winter an apple costs a dollar.
The fishing industry in the world's largest salmon spawning ground, which accounts for more
than 80 percent of Kamchatka's workers, is buckling under the costs of transporting its catch
back to the population centers in the west. There is no longer any money in hunting because it
costs too much to ship meat. Reindeer breeding, a way of life in the north for at least a
thousand years, is also on the verge of disappearing. The regional government has become so
impoverished it can no longer pay hunters a bounty to kill wolves, which have multiplied
rapidly and decimated the herds. The reindeer herders are often so desperate that they are
forced to kill their animals just to feed their families.
But the pressure to find a way to make Kamchatka prosper competes with the knowledge that
once digging here begins, one more natural paradise will almost certainly be lost.
I am sure there are places on this planet as wild, beautiful and diverse as this, said Yelena
Dulchenko, a geologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. But I just don't know where
they could be. If they dig for gold here they will ruin Kamchatka forever. It will become just
another place that used to be special.
Gold fever sometimes makes debates seems simple, and it would be easy to portray the battle
for Kamchatka as a struggle between those who wish to preserve the earth and those who are
eager to plunder it. But the people here have an obvious reverence for their surroundings and a
strong desire to protect them. They also have bleak prospects for the future.
An Uncertain Fate, a Difficult Choice
oscow can no longer afford to support places like Kamchatka; that much is clear. If it
survives, it will have to find a way to do it alone.
We are forgotten by the federal government, said Gennadi Devyatkin, head of the local
administration in the gold-producing region in central Kamchatka that includes Esso.
Forgotten except when they want our fish. We are a colony and Moscow can only take from
us. At least in the old days they would give us back enough to survive. Not anymore though.
That is why it is no longer possible to ignore the most obvious source of wealth in Kamchatka.
There are from 500 to 1,000 tons of gold here, a figure that, while not enormous by world
standards, could bring in as much as $10 billion.
It's not going to change the world gold market, said Samuel Romberger, professor of
Economic Geology at the Colorado School of Mines. But it might excite a bunch of Western
adventurists.
That's for sure. Canadian, American and Russian companies have all been eager to get digging
and the fight has already become messy. Many of those who want the region to grow, or at
least to continue supporting humans, say tourism is the only way to do it.
Since the peninsula has 30 active volcanoes and more than 100 that are dormant, one of the
world's great geyser fields ( along with Yellowstone ) , tens of thousands of rivers and lakes,
and every type of animal from sea otter and sable to the world's biggest eagles, tourism seems
to make a lot of sense.
But with no roads, the only way to move about the peninsula is by helicopter. And most
helicopters are controlled by one company. Visiting the Valley of the Geysers -- where more
than 200 geysers spout, bubble and boil into the sky -- can cost $2,000 for a few hours. A
round-trip plane ticket from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky to Palana, the northern administrative
center, is $400. Many families don't earn that in a year.
You would need to spend millions of dollars to turn this into a tourist attraction that would
bring more than just the most adventurous travelers, said Gennadi Karpov, deputy director of
the Institute of Vulcanology, the premier scholarly institution in Kamchatka. The two volcano
ranges are wonders of the world. But if you don't have several thousand dollars you can only
see them from far away. You are not going to get thousands of tourists if all we have to offer
them are helicopter rides.
There are few hotels outside the capital Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, in part because the island
is in the center of a major earthquake zone and the cost of building hotels that can withstand
earthquakes is huge.
Fishing is the only industry here to prosper. But many people feel its singular success may
doom it. More than a million tons were hauled from the seas near Kamchatka in 1996 -- a
record catch and one that specialists here feel is too large even for such rich waters. This year
the Russian government permitted quotas that are even higher, though, because with little else
in the way of income fishing is all most people have. That is why so many residents have
reluctantly turned their hope to mining.
Near Future or Far, Jobs Are Crucial
he effects of mining are difficult to predict. New techniques reduce pollution
immensely -- but perhaps not enough to protect Kamchatka. Colorado still has many
streams that are considered toxic-waste sites more than 100 years after gold mining
ended in them. It is not possible to extract gold from the earth without flushing large amounts
of heavy metals -- which are always found near gold deposits -- into the surrounding water.
Fish eat them, bears eat the fish -- and both would suffer badly, as would people.
The ground is wet here and where it is not wet it is cold, said Igor Revenko, a leading bear
biologist with the Kamchatka Institute of Ecology. Revenko has been taking a bear census here
for several years, attempting with many other experts from around the world to understand
why this appears to be the best place on earth for them to live.
The conditions here are fragile and unique, he said. This is not Colorado where the ground
was dry. We are not nearly as big as Alaska. Also, we have to look at what we are going to get
if we ruin Kamchatka for a few tons of gold.
Revenko said that the mines here would be exhausted within 30 years -- a figure that regional
mining supporters do not contest. Then, if the natural splendors of the peninsula are affected --
and slight environmental challenges often have major adverse consequences -- the possibility of
using the place as an tourist spot may no longer exist.
Personally, over the long run, Revenko said, I think there would be more money in
tourism.
This year, in an attempt to protect those areas of Kamchatka that are truly wild and most in
danger, UNESCO put nearly 10 million acres on its list of protected World Heritage Sites. The
legal implications of that decision are not clear, but it has not made everyone here happy.
Everyone has a plan to save Kamchatka, said Aleksandr Rechednikov, a 50-year-old hunter
in this town of 300 families. But they are not saving it for me. I can't make a living hunting
anymore. I can't fish. There are no jobs to offer, none. So why don't the good rich people
from everywhere else in the world leave us alone and let us decide what to do in our own
land?
Facing Extinction, Tribes Hang On
iktoriya Petrasheva also wishes people would leave the place alone. But her
perspective couldn't differ more sharply from that of Rechednikov. Ms. Petrasheva
lives in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky but she is one of the peninsula's dwindling
number of indigenous people -- a member of the Itelmen tribe, which began its first wave of
eastward migration more than 10,000 years ago. There were 25,000 Itelmen in Kamchatka
when the Russians came in 1697. Today there are 1,000 to 2,000.
My grandfather was executed in 1934, she said. He was accused of being a spy for Japan.
My mother was 6. Her mother was labeled an enemy of the people, -- Stalin's infamous term
for millions who then endured suffering, and usually death. But ever since the Russians came
here we have been enemies of the people. So it was nothing new.
Mrs. Petrasheva is an ethnographer who has studied the fate of natives in Kamchatka -- most
of whom still live in the north, coastal or central parts of the peninsula. Her results are not
encouraging. For centuries the Even, Koryak and Itelmen lived easily in harsh conditions.
They herded reindeer, which provided meat and skins, caught and preserved an endless supply
of salmon and hunted the bears, foxes and sable, whose furs helped them to survive the cold.
Taking a notebook from the shelf, she provided an account of deaths in the native Even village
of Anavgai, just 25 miles from Esso. In 1994, 8 people died there -- out of 300 -- and nobody
was born. She reels off the ages of the dead: 25, 27, 38, 41. In all, 26 villagers have died there
in the last three years -- with two births. There have been one murder and seven suicides. The
reindeer population -- which sustained the village -- has slid from 19,000 to less than 2,500 in
the last decade.
You can't even hope that we will survive as a nation, said Katya Atelkut, a veterinarian,
sitting in the cultural center of Anavgai. Although it is May, all around her snow covers the
hills and mountains.
Maybe we won't even survive at all, she said. People leave if they can. They drink if they
can't leave. And now there is going to be gold. I don't know why, but somehow it is hard for
me to believe we will see very much of it. I don't want to see them dig up the earth. Its all we
have here now, and when that is gone there will be nothing left.
Other Places of Interest on the Web
Journey to Kamchatka, from The Discovery Channel Online
Home | Sections | Contents | Search | Forums | Help
Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company
Mike Sheller I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning!>(I love the smell of Kitco in the Morning!):
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
TED @Porpoise>(@Porpoise):
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
BTW, I sure miss the old qoute bar being at the top of this page.
Tortfeasor Joke of the morn>(Joke of the morn):
A little girl says, Grandpa, can I sit on your lap?
Why sure you can, her grandfather replied.
As she is sitting on grand dad's lap she says, Grandpa, can you
make a sound like a frog?
A sound like a frog? Well, sure Grandpa can make a sound like a
frog.
The girl says, Grandpa, will you please please MAKE a sound like
a frog?
Perplexed, her grand dad says, Sweet heart, why do you want me to
make a sound like a frog?
And the little girl says, 'Cause Grandma said that when you croak,
we're going to Florida!
EBN Update .>(.):
Last EBN-Dollar at 112.48 Yen.
panda @warning.SHOT!>(@warning.SHOT!):
TED @tort>(@tort):
The Dollar continues to slide against the YEN....
TED @capebreton>(@capebreton):
...what a bunch of crap!
TED @roto-tilling>(@roto-tilling):
Speed Huh?>(Huh?):
panda @can't get in!>(@can't get in!):
speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!
Roebear @Chocolatetown>(@Chocolatetown):
Auric Chompin'@.the.bit>(Chompin'@.the.bit):
Gold will kick the H E double L out of the EMU from
now on. Agreed?
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Mooney:
Date: Mon Jun 09 1997 00:22
Mooney ( @Front ) :
@23:51 - Are you implying in any way that your wife is not as perfect as you?
Yea Right !!!! Like , Do I really look that stupid?
I wouldn't dare say it even if it's true you know since they changed the devorce laws in Ontario and now she gets 1/2 automatically. Can't work the market with only ha f t e eyb ard y u n w hahahaha ( :- ) )
Tarnished: You're right about Canadians. Wonder if our American friends remember that until about 5 years ago, EVERY player in the NHL was CANADIAN !!! ( even though MOST were from Ontario haha ) !!!
Ted: When you're done, I've got a bit left here to do also. I'll be out on the Seadoo today so just go ahead without me OK? Thanks....
TTFN
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
panda @>(@):
Lan Man COT Update>(COT Update):
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
Mooney @Geff@7:20>(@Geff@7:20):
George S. Cole gold bottom?>(gold bottom?):
AURIC: I do not follow the price of gold in foreign currencies nearly as closely as does THE PRIVATEER. I greatly respect their work; like GLENN they have been cautious for quite some time and still have not called a bottom in terms of greenbacks. But they do argue that it has troughed in Aussie dollars. THE PRIVATEER argues that this is very significant because bullion tends to bottom in Aussie currency before troughing in U.S. dollars.
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
As Mr. Pretz said Its going to $20 000. Say hello to Kirk and Scotty when you get there. Buy Mr. Peutz's book for the trip. Rear-tined Troy builts are the best.
Mooney @LanMan!>(@LanMan!):
CB @Fed Up>(@Fed Up):
George s Cole: Re-June 8 update @ Gold-Eagle. Are
you making the case that the same conditions are
present in Gold and Silver as in Platinum and
Palladium?
George S. Cole open interest>(open interest):
Low open interest, exceedingly negative sentiment, a 17-month bear market, a stock market now in its final blowoff phase, and the fact that gold and gold shares are incredibly cheap relative to financial assets all augur for a big move up before long.
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Mooney @Mr.Cole>(@Mr.Cole):
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
geff geff@ziplink.net>(geff@ziplink.net):
Speed @work>(@work):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
panda @can't get in!>(@can't get in!):
speed -- I'm in the Northeast. I believe it's the Eastern edition of the WSJ. The Pomboy Capital Corp. is located in Greenwich CT. Those are the people who put the ad in the Money and Investing section of the paper. Page C15. I know the WSJ puts out regional editions, perhaps the ads are regional to!
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
Mooney:
Dear buddy..pal..wonderful person etc. etc. etc. would you please ......
Go to the Kitco active silver options page, grab a line and tell me exactly what each column is saying? I see it but it doesn't even begin to make sence to me.....Thanks old buddy oh pal oh Mr. wonderful etc. etc. etc.
TTFN
panda @last.post>(@last.post):
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Bob A pgms>(pgms):
Mooney @Front>(@Front):
Digger dimes@mine.com>(dimes@mine.com):
a good idea. Anybody have any experience with it? Any comments?
Speed @work>(@work):
Spot silver is at 4.78 100 maples=569 100 eagles= 644 100 libertads=513
all cost $10 to ship and insure.
auroelf the book>(the book):
Mooney, it pays to step back and weigh outside opinion and differently-biased views against what is said on this site from time-to-time.
Panda, Speed: The southeast regional WSJ also has the Pomboy ad on page C15. And yes, getting in to post here was blocked for a while.
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
Virtual Eagle’s eye view of global gold paradigm. Is it a plot to create a single world currency? Erudite & exhaustive analysis by Oracle of Alberta:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html
Novice @error messages>(@error messages):
Another day of early guarded optimism here in danger of being carried onto a lee shore. Palladium still holding its ground...
Bernie @ca>(@ca):
name be prepared to be fleeced. From New York Times, I don't know
how else to say it. The ( Mutual Insurance ) companies are trying to get
into position to rob money from policyholders, said J. Robert Hunter, a
former Texas insurance commissioner.
George S. Cole investor demand>(investor demand):
I am arguing that gold will follow the whites before long despite one huge differnce -- namely the large supplies in the hands of central banks many of which are determined to keep the price depressed. My argument essentially boils down to the assertion that they will not be able to keep the price down up via the traditional routes of cheap gold loans and outright sales when investor demand starts to pick up. And this investor demand should develop when the stock market peaks.
INVESTOR DEMAND -- the lack of it today and the prospect of a big pick-up before long -- is the key to the gold market.
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
BART:
I notice that the SEPT PALLADIUM QUOTE is $0.00
Can I have 1 ton ( I'll pay for the freight ) delivered real soon?
Thanks
TTFN
nailz Barron's Letters to Editor>(Barron's Letters to Editor):
TED @roto-tillerbreak>(@roto-tillerbreak):
panda @>(@):
REB na>(na):
vronsky June 9, 1997 - PART V --Just How High Can A Bull Fly? >(June 9, 1997 - PART V --Just How High Can A Bull Fly? ):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
FrenchMan alcarriou@magic.fr>(alcarriou@magic.fr):
Why?Because the French minister of Economy and Finances,D. Strauss Kahn wants to report the signature of the monetary stability pact for EMU.Before signing anything concerning EMU,French Government wants to renegociate to introduce more social in the current monetary EMU.
Bart Kitner (Kitco) bkitner@kitco.com>(bkitner@kitco.com):
Novice @Pa/Pl>(@Pa/Pl):
Tortfeasor Thanks>(Thanks):
Tortfeasor Thanks>(Thanks):
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
TED:
What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....
A BLUE for regular work and a FOSTER's if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat's that in heat !!!!!
TTFN
Front @upandatum>(@upandatum):
TED:
What timing.... Just came in from Seadooin' and fishin' ....
A BLUE for regular work and a FOSTER's if you do the windows and dishes ( Mooney knows how much I hate them ) . A case if you get rid of this cat that's in heat !!!!!
TTFN
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Magazine, etc.
http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html
George S. Cole gold stock rally>(gold stock rally):
The overall market also may be due for a modest correction. Today's advance narrowly based with little small-cap or mid-cap participation. But the underlying bull trend should continue awhile longer.
Byron @ What!>(@ What!):
JDM jdmcclu@ibm.net>(jdmcclu@ibm.net):
yellowdog @--------->(@---------):
has anything happened yet to change your previous forecasts? might you give us an update?
George S. Cole gold stock rally>(gold stock rally):
korondy Please@Reply.Here>(Please@Reply.Here):
Lurker 1 home>(home):
Does anyone know a refiner that will take 90% & 40% junk silver coins and melt it down into 999 bars. I can not find phone # or web pages on Johnson Mathey or Englehard.
bw us stocks:>(us stocks:):
George S. Cole stock market>(stock market):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Over 92% of 4360 mutual funds have failed to match the 8.2% gain in the S&P 500 index in the intial 4 months of 1997. Over 93.6% underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past 12 months!
Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: Right now it would require 11 consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*.
I guess Mr. Stack will never understand. Will he? ..... ( :- ) )
camelrights.org Leave Joe Alone>(Leave Joe Alone):
We will sue the appropriate Government Departments for
their crueal attacks on Joe the Camel and _____ gold
and silver if you join us. Please help us defend Joe
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
Stargazer @watching and waiting>(@watching and waiting):
APH }}}}}}}}}}}}}}{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{>(}}}}}}}}}}}}}}{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{):
Bottom line still looking for XAU to trade below 97, front month gold down close to 336 and Aug gold to trade under 340.
WW @New England>(@New England):
Gold and gold stks should zoom when problems hit as they have not risen with equity rise.
What effect will forward selling by gold equities have in a gold bull. Ques? How much hedging is too much?
Speed @work>(@work):
yellowdog @APH>(@APH):
Jack Pomboy Capital (Financial Times, also)>(Pomboy Capital (Financial Times, also)):
Earl: ( 17:40 ) Great bit of info, relative to Microsoft's
value versus the Big 3, but a sorry state of afairs.
Hope that Gates buys the PM's with some of the profit.
Panda: Pomboy Capital Corp. Letter also in the US
( Western ) edition of Financial Times. He feels that CB's
made about $500 million on sales and leasing, but lost
$170 billion because of the present gold price. He uses
$500 gold to arrive at the $170 billion loss, where he
figures gold price would have been without CB
interference.
panda @>(@):
EWP EWP>(EWP):
NotaGoldbug Oregon.com>(Oregon.com):
that the support will give way.. Weak longs have entered this market because
of the rise in palladium and platinum.. And this has set up the possibility of
stops being set off should the market start to break. There is no inflation,
crude oil has dropped and so has the grains.. Personally I would sell rallies
at this juncture or buy puts..
This is obviously just my personal opinion but I believe the risk/reward for the
longs is more risk..
Oceanographer Fundy>(Fundy):
Fundy: How are the tides Today
Gene @Reality>(@Reality):
Under the Clinton Administration, the United States government secretly sold the strategic oil reserve to raise money. Later, to cover up, the United States publicly sold the reserve to bring down the price of gasoline but the price of oil didn't go down because the strategic oil reserve had been sold previously.
After World War II the United States asked Switzerland for the gold confiscated from those held in Germany in the concentration camps. It was to be given back to survivors and relatives. Switzerland refused. Case closed until recently when Clinton asked for the gold again. He did not ask for the money value to return to the survivors and heirs of the holocaust victims; he asked for the gold and the United States would receive the gold and pay out cash. Why did the United States need the gold. Were the victims of the holocaust and their heirs being used, as an excuse to attain desperately needed gold reserves?
If the government could secretly sell something as important as the strategic oil reserve, or spend the funds in the Social Security Trust Fund, it is not a stretch of the imagination to suspect that the government could sell secretly its gold reserves. It is rich. Sell the gold secretly and issue paper gold backed by gold that has been sold previously. In fact, based on the world governments' modus operandi I would be far most surprised if most governments had gold reserves. They would be going against the spirit of their own operations if they kept their gold reserves in tact. Why should world governments act underhandedly in most matters but act honestly when it came to gold? The assumption of presently existing government gold reserves is illogical.
Recently German leaders wished to re-value the worth of their gold reserves. There was a lot of commotion and then the German Government decided not to revalue their gold reserves. Could it be possible that when the German leaders could not find those gold reserves when they looked for them.
Recently the United States and other countries have tried to pressure Switzerland to sell its gold reserves onto the world gold market. Why should anyone care? Why Switzerland? Could Switzerland be the last government to hold gold reserves? Could there be no more gold to meet the demand for the physical delivery of gold?
Could a similar scenario have occurred recently with Platinum and Palladium?
Of the large gold sales by Central banks how many have involved the delivery of physical gold?
Could the so-called gold reserves be stated realistically as a MINUS number.
Will the United States again make the ownership of gold illegal?
Will the United States seize the production of U.S. gold mines by buying up produced gold at a set unrealistic price?
IS THERE ANY GOLD IN RESERVE ANYWHERE?
LB y2k problem>(y2k problem):
Thanks
Byron @ Overnight:>(@ Overnight:):
vronsky Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near>(Stocks Likely to Rise Further - Major Top Is Near):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
George S. Cole misc.>(misc.):
Earl: I do not have any money in Rydex Ursa. I do hope to purchase some S & P 500 puts this summer to profit from the big drop I expect in the fall.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
vronsky Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler>(Two Down, Two To Go by Guest Guru Ted Butler):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest.html
arden ardengold@msn.com>(ardengold@msn.com):
Comex open interest as of yesterday was 159,865 contracts.
ELIGIBLE Comex gold stocks are 285,223 oz to cover the comex open interest. This leaves a 'strong' 1.78 oz of gold available to be delivered for each 100 oz contract!! Read the excellent article 'Two Down and Two To Go on Gold Eagle. It is only a matter of time!
Hi folks, sorry I haven't been here for awhile. I had the fortune of selling my house within three weeks of listing it and buying another within a week and then finding out the the phone company couldn't get me a line for two weeks! Talk about going thru Kitco withdrawal!
TED @front>(@front):
Where do you live that you can be out on the water at this time of year
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
TED @exhaustion>(@exhaustion):
TED @forgetfullness>(@forgetfullness):
Tortfeasor Over and out>(Over and out):
Arctic Spirit spirit@internorth.com>(spirit@internorth.com):
Magazine, etc.
http://www.arcticspirit.com/bre-x.html
Fundy Tide>(Tide):
While we can cant the virtues of gold here daily the fact remains it has been a terrible investment for the last 2 decades. You may be an trader and many others as well. Others are investors thinking about the store of value myth of gold and the hedge against inflation myth. Anyone who is a trader might as well be trading nickel and the perceived and promoted virtues of gold are irrelevant I agree.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
vronsky GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?>(GOLD: AN INVISIBLE BULL MARKET?):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
Noncontributing Lurker @earl>(@earl):
Tortfeasor Blonde joke of the evening>(Blonde joke of the evening):
On a plane bound for New York the flight attendant approached a
blonde sitting in the first class section and requested that she
move to coach since she did not have a first class ticket. The
blonde replied, I'm blonde, I'm beautiful, I'm going to New York,
and I'm not moving. Not wanting to argue with a customer the
flight attendant asked the co-pilot to speak with her. He went
to talk with the woman asking her to please move out of the first
class section. Again, the blonde replied, I'm blonde, I'm
beautiful, I'm going to New York, and I'm not moving. The
co-pilot returned to the cockpit and asked the captain what he
should do. The captain said, I'm married to a blonde, and I
know how to handle this. He went to the first class section
and whispered in the blonde's ear. She immediately jumped up and
ran to the coach section mumbling to herself, Why didn't
anyone just say so. Surprised, the flight attendant and the
co-pilot asked what he said to her that finally convinced her to
move from her seat. He said, I told her the first class section
wasn't going to New York.
Speed @home>(@home):
vronsky FINANCIAL FIGHT OF THE CENTURY: IBM vs HOMESTAKE MINING>(FINANCIAL FIGHT OF THE CENTURY: IBM vs HOMESTAKE MINING):
Date: Thu Mar 13 1997 12:34
vronsky ( POP QUIZ - WHICH HAD BETTER HISTORICAL RESULTS: IBM OR HM ) :
HERE IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS: From January 1959 to January 1995 ( 36 years ) , which stock performed the best: IBM or Homestake Mining ( HM ) ? How come such a dumb question? Because the answer was so surprising to make me, that I believe it will also be to most people.
Homestake Mining was the WINNER! It appreciated at a compound annual rate of 6.5%, while IBM came in at a mere 4.5%. The Dow Industrials during the same period was about 5.25%.
I found this quote in my financial readings about a year ago, and just ran across it again today. Interestingly, it makes one think about Wall Street's incesstant carping AND CANTING that common stocks are a better long-term hedge against inflation. My Aunt-Fanny they are! It is NOT just a simple 2.0% per year that HM outperformed IBM for the 36-year period, BUT THAT HM DID 44% PER YEAR BETTER THAN BIG-BLUE!
Who sez dem gold stocks ain't better den common stocks?!
TED @secondwind>(@secondwind):
Tort: Where is Blonde these days?...and CHEER UP!...
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
I wouldn't expect handsprings over the revelation but IMO it is harbinger of things to come for the other two and the last I looked this was a gold/silver site.
Some would probably argue that the thinness of the PGM market made it susceptible to such. I would argue that the number of players are always commensurate to the market involved and, more, since the gold market has such heavy infiltration of politically motivated influences, that the we are still unable to guage the true depth of the potential or grasp the full impact of what is/may/likely to happen. It may be even more devastating ... and profitable for us. ( I am ashamed to say that, forgive me ) .... If I am the only one who thinks its significant, then lets open the SS thread again.
vronsky Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta>(Seven Golden Threads of the Global Quilt by Oracle of Alberta):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/alberta604.html
Miro Y2K not so OK>(Y2K not so OK):
absence of any consideration for what impact will Y2K factor have on
financial markets in coming years. Is it because the community does
not know about it or because we do not consider it as an issue?! Though
my master degree is in economics for the last 27 years I do computers
and my economic analysis skills are mostly gone but here are my 2 pennies
worth on Y2K.
I don’t see an economic meltdown as some people predict it but I see
a significant difficulties. I work on Y2K problem and I can say that
a number of companies won’t be ready by year 2000. This will result in
disruption of economic activities, some companies won’t make it ( meaning
going out of business ) for some it will mean reduced revenues. We all
know what news like that do to the market ( e.g. Intel announcement
last week ) .
Y2K problem will start to impact P/L statements by the end of 98 because
accounting rules say that Y2K cost must be expensed instead of amortized
and because auditors auditing financial statements will be held
responsible for detecting and reporting errors and irregularities and
potential difficulties which may have an impact on company performance.
I believe this will be a significant trigger for reinforcing market
meltdown which is predicted to start sometimes in the next two years.
Just to complicated the whole issue, starting in 2001 you will see a
significant amount of litigation activities, class lawsuits, etc..
Litigation cost of Y2K is expected to exceed ( by a large factor ) the
cost of correcting the problem ( estimated to be around $600 billions
worldwide just for information systems not including things like
failing appliances, medical instrumentation, etc. ) . I think that this
will just prolong the bear market following the market collapse.
My question ( and the reason for my lurking ) is how to play this market.
My instinct goes along with many list members saying metals will
experience a significant growth because it may be the only stable
investment which may let you go back into collapsed market when it’s at
its low.
Again, I know more about computer business than about market so this is
just MHO but my retirement from my job in computers ( I am extremely
tired of it ) depends on it.
Kid Silver _>(_):
In your opinion what would be the ideal portfolio?
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Speed back from gold-eagle>(back from gold-eagle):
Earl: No, not that, anything but that ss thread! I bought more silver today, does that count as action taken on 2 Down/2 to go? What happens to this latest surge if Tiger fund sells a million ounces of Platinum and the Russkies shake loose some dinero for their miners and crank up the production line? It seems to me that a roaring economy is the best bet for upward momentum in metals. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Fundy: I hope the DOW goes to 15,000 because those index funds buy mining stocks too. However, if the DOW goes back to 1000, my store of value, gold and silver, will soar.
Earl @worldaccessnet.com>(@worldaccessnet.com):
They produce nothing of value to society or to the greater good of mankind. Indeed, while they are capable individuals, by choice they lack the requisite skills to do so. They cannot wield a shovel and find gold, nor can they program a computer. The only skill they possess is the finely honed ability to convince the rest of mankind that what they say and what they do is truly important. I think not.
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
Byron 1 Out Of 2 Ain't To Bad:>(1 Out Of 2 Ain't To Bad:):
The HUI Index ( American Gold Bugs Index ) did not cross the finish line. : (
Re: Y2K Re: Y2K>(Re: Y2K):
Eldorado @the market>(@the market):
QT @>(@):
But since things have a way of changing, surprise, surprise, who knows, the day of the dear darlings might yet flourish once again. In the mean time let us not taint the virtue of these sisters with an association to their baser cousin, that ba'dard of the parchment, the Guttenbergers evil spawn, PAPER TENDER. How then can value be attached to their beauty, their rarity, if not with CASH? How can their desirability be measured if not against the arbitration of the collective confidence, you may ask? How indeed. Commerce makes for such strange pillow fellows does it not?
The very foundation of the familiar, the pavement stones of our daily marketplace, the fact of a bank draft, they are all and each calculated in units of currency based on confidence. Your exchanges in every aspect of commercial intercourse with purveyors hawking there beyond the bookjack at your door, they are all settled in CASH. CASH is still king. It enjoys such esteem that even here, in a sanctuary beyond the psychology of the believing mob, it is used as a unit of measure for determining the value of the four sisters.
I find this lacking in clarity. Why condemn the master who allows us such cynicism? CASH is the ruler of this house of dreams and as much as I esteem the little darlings, that every dog has his day, and this too shall pass, that this CASH reality we live in provides the foundation to our relationship to the little darlings. Let us not pretend ottherwise. T'would be less a jest than we are all worthy of.
Mind you my kitco kin, the days of currency are numbered, but then so too, I hope, the percieved relativity between the four sisters and cousin CASH.
If WE cannot hold them to be sacred, how can we expect others to?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// .
PS My only fear for '98 = colesterol and backwardation.
Enjoy.
Mooney moonstep@idirect.com>(moonstep@idirect.com):
Auroelf - Granted we must all look at the many varied opinions we can gather from 'experts' around the world and then decide which is the 'grain' and which is the 'chaff'. It just seemed to me last night that you were being mesmerized by a spin doctor who specialises in dross. There will always be those who can make the masses believe that 'this time things are different' and that the Emperor is wearing a beautiful suit. The fact that the suit is made of invisible thread will eventually become apparent to all, even the deluded spin doctor himself.
Steve Puetz - You just may have a point there! More than likely that scenario will take about ten-fifteen years until completion, however, and until then I would be happy to see even 20-1 in the next lustrum! ( I can hear the mad scramble for the dictionary's right now! )
Arden- Right On Bro'! ( Also - Good Luck on the move! )
APH - Consistent and usually right!
Korondy - Where ya been?
George - We're waiting with you til the Fall!
bw - Good Read.
Earl - Those statistics are scary and deserve repeating! Re: MSFT versus the big 3 autos: Right now it would require 11
consecutive years of 20% earnings gains for Microsoft's P/E to
match that of these auto stocks. Comparing revenue, those 3 auto
companies sell $370 billion in product a year, or 35 times
Microsoft's $10.5 billion. Yet Microsoft stock is valued at more
than 1.4 times *all* three auto stocks *put together*.
Gene - Good try but a little too wild.
NotaGoldbug - Your opposing view is at least worth reading compared to some of the B.S. that we have seen.
Ted and Front - Stop trying to make everyone jealous with your 'Life of Reilly' stories! :- )
Paper Hanger @eldon't>(@eldon't):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
$30,000 in silver coins ( purchase for silver content only )
$18,000 in gold coins ( purchase for gold content only )
$2,000 in December 1997 S&P 700 put options
-------
$50,000 total
panda @>(@):
In regards to the PA/PL 'paper' problem; I'm glad to see others are giving it quiet thought. It does have profound implications for ALL paper assets. The PA/PL fiasco will be an interesting 'test drive' for paper credibility. The extension of settlement times from two days to thirty? Do they really think the Russians will cough up the metal, just because some shorts need it? Somebody has someone by the short *****, and they haven't let go yet.
An even more obtuse concern would be this; Where would this leave the enviromental groups? Screaming about pollution, no doubt, along with calls for more government action. That could lead to some interesting possibilities. Whither the catalytic converter and oil companies, not to mention the chemical companies. Hmmmm, this thing could have legs.
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
TED @mooney>(@mooney):
panda @zzzzzzz>(@zzzzzzz):
George S. Cole -- Agreed that the volume on the mining shares was pretty pathetic today. Most shares seem to be at a half to a quarter of their 'normal' daily volume of a year+ ago. TVX used to trade 1 million shares a day on average.
EWP EWP>(EWP):
EWP EWP>(EWP):
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
RJ Where for art thou, Gold?>(Where for art thou, Gold?):
First, let’s ask the most basic. What good is gold? You can’t live in it. You can’t drive it. You can’t eat it. What good is it? The answer is obvious to all; gold is valuable because people think it is. Gold is the IDEA of wealth and, as such, it’s perceived value varies widely with economic conditions.
Many like to talk about the historical power of gold to hold it’s value. This leaves me a bit befuddled. For centuries gold was the same price, it’s value did not change. Inflation was nonexistent so the value of other commodities was also very stable. Inflation is essentially a twentieth century phenomenon, and there have been times throughout this century when gold appeared to be a hedge against rising costs, although this appearance is deceptive.
There are two aspects of gold we should remember. First, it can be found in almost any spot on earth, it’s not that rare. Second, it is mined for accumulation. An entire mountain of gold resides in bank vaults throughout the world, therefore, gold is becoming less rare with each passing day. If worldwide gold production stopped today, we would have enough gold for industrial uses to last 30 years - and yes, I am including jewelry in industrial usage. Contrast this with PGMs - approximately 2 years and found in basically two places on earth, and silver - approximately 4 - 5 years supply.
Now, lets call a spade a spade. Viewed in inflation adjusted dollars, any gold purchased in the last 18 years is now worth less than what you paid for it. This is undeniable. Not only has it failed to keep ahead of inflation but in inflation adjusted dollars, we are near historic lows. There are many who still cling to the belief that their gold is giving them protection from inflation and, like people who believe OJ is innocent, please don’t confuse them with the facts, they’ve made up their minds. By definition, a commodity can never be an inflation hedge. The price of any commodity may rise during times of inflation but inevitably the price falls to previous levels, while the currency it represents stays inflated.
There are those who will cry, Unfair! Why, in 1900 you could buy a suit for an ounce of gold, and today you can still buy a suit for that same ounce! Anyone that can’t see the inherent flaw in that argument, bought the vest and got the sleeves for free. The problem with these apocryphal little ditties is that they are a shortcut to actually thinking.
Lets transport ourselves to 1980 and ask the question that begs to be asked: Would you rather have I ounce of gold or $463? I am using the low that year to be kind as higher numbers only make the picture worse. On a dollar for dollar basis, at $344 gold today, the answer is obvious, take the cash. Unfair you say? $463 too high? OK let’s take the average low for gold from 1977 forward, $327. The answer is still obvious. That once ounce of gold is still barely worth less today than at almost anytime in the last two decades. When we then take the necessary step of adjusting these dollars for inflation ( assuming 4% annually, which we all know is substantially lower than actual inflation over the last 20 years. ) , the results are staggering. The dollars you paid for that gold are worth less than half of what they were worth in 1980. In real dollars your $327 is now worth $137! So in order to just break even, you would have had to buy your gold prior to 1978 at the low and held it until now. That’s not an investment, that’s a sieve. That’s not protection, that’s robbery.
The modern gold market can really only be traced to 1974 when once again, private citizens could own gold. After a few years to shake things out, and occasion rises, the price of gold has settled at it’s current levels, slightly lower than it’s modern average. As I stated previously, the average low in gold in the last 20 years was $327 ( with an absolute low of $127 ) , the average high was $439 ( absolute high $825 midday, but who sold at that price? ) , with an average price of $383. These averages include the manic highs of 1979 - 1980. If we threw those numbers out the window, the picture is even worse. Remember, the dollars have been inflated forever.
Another expected argument: Yes, but all commodities rise and then fall. This is true, but I do not advocate the buying and holding of any commodity, as many do with gold. The key is to ride the rises and take the profits. What is the purpose of holding?
To debunk another popular reason touted for gold ownership, When the economic collapse finally comes, I’ll be able to trade my gold for a loaf of bread. I don’t know if this is just naive or anyone actually believes, that in times of crisis, gold will buy food. If times are that bad, the only thing that will get bread is bullets. Would anyone trade their family’s food for gold? For that matter, would anyone trade their gun for gold?. For those of you still searching for an answer, please refer to the beginning of this essay.
Lacking an apocalyptic meltdown of worldwide monetary systems, gold will continue it’s dismal performance. In times of true crisis, however, I’d rather have a bushel of corn or a few potatoes.
True, there have been periods when gold has proven profitable, but certainly no more than any other commodity. Lets look at gold for what it truly is, it’s pretty, it’s shiny, and it’s occasionally profitable.
RJD
June 1997
Eldorado @the scene>(@the scene):
RJ rjd@pacbell.net>(rjd@pacbell.net):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
What is the phone number it is showing to call to order Total Collapse? Some people have been having trouble getting a connection.
Buy gold coins for their monetary content only. Don't buy collectibles.
aurator @Arm....a.....geddin'..........Outa here!>(@Arm....a.....geddin'..........Outa here!):
Y2K I too work in computergeekland. Yes Y2k will be a problem for almost all large financial institutions and gov depts. It may well have an additive effect with MILLENIAL FEVER on crowd perception of stability of these institutions. This will ultimately be good for goldbugs.
What if I can't trust my bank statement/insurance/tax record/whatever
Ain't this rather like a scriptural armageddon? Doubt and uncertainty?
Who can ye trust? ( ingotwetrust )
Millenial fear and fever ought not be underestimated either. We do not have to wait until Y2K to start to see the effects of this. To those with eyes to see the effects are already visible.
If you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs
And blaming it on you......
( Rudy Kipling )
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Bob M gold@bitterroot.net>(gold@bitterroot.net):
Steve Puetz bpuetz@holli.com>(bpuetz@holli.com):
RSA resource@sentex.net>(resource@sentex.net):
You may want to have a look at Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver, a hidden
gem that could soar in this platinum market. I am also now picking nickel to rise significantly. The strike at Inco will be a long one. Bet on it. A few more ounzes of platinum production will be gone as well.
I have been very successful at picking market bottoms in mining stocks
and metals. Maybe I'm just lucky, perhaps you want to follow my luck? Last year, I stated, that the Sumitomo affair has caused a bottom in copper and it would rebound. My two junior copper picks soared, Western Copper from $1.15 to $4.05 and Corner Bay $0.70 to $1.32.
In November 1996 I wrote a special report on platinum that it was at a
bottom and the time to buy is now. This is a piece from my report on a few things mentioned about Russia
Russia is in shambles and the mining industry is half of what it used to
be. Miners are working months without getting paid. Equipment is outdated
and in need of repair. A huge bureaucracy, political fighting and organized crime all add to the problem.................... Most likely Russia is almost out of platinum, just as they are gold. It could be this year or perhaps next that Russian sales will likely fall off. This alone could cause platinum to explode upwards.
With platinum soaring needless to say our platinum plays heve done very
well except one unknown yet, Phoenix Gold, PHO on Vancouver. I think this
could soon change because PHO has an excellent platinum property and I just talked to them on June 7th and they will begin drilling in about 10 days. I originally thought PHO would get on the property last year but they didn't raise the $$ in time. As it turns out it looks like this was a blessing considering todays hot platinum market
The property was held private since Newmont was forced to give it up in
the 1980s despite excellent drill results ( I bet they wish they had it now ) .The property was just moved into PHO in 1996. If platinum is still up or higher as I expect when PHO releases platinum drill results this stock could soar. It is just trading around $0.40 ( little downside risk ) and has a nice silver property among others. You can view my platinum report and more about
PHO at my website http://www.sentex.net/~resource
Call Dick Lonsdale at PHO 604-689-9960 Fax 604-684-3499
Good luck to all and don't forget to get a position in the nickel market
Rubin Rubin@net.com>(Rubin@net.com):
National Buy an Ounce of Gold Day.