KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 18:48
Realistic (@LGB) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
See my post of 13:46 this afternoon ( Kitco 1 ) , I already asked him about the 1,000 points drop in the Dow this week while there were still a couple of hours left in trading.

Also, you asked Puetz if we now have to wait until Halloween for the 2000 to 4000 points drop in the Dow and all I can say is: beware!!!!

Last year's promised Halloween massacre turned into a huge rally in the Dow!!!

Date: Sun Oct 26 1997 22:34
Puetz ( bpuetz@holli.com ) ID#222167:

A Halloween Massacre still seems likely. On October 31st, the scariest ghosts and goblins are likely to be on Wall Street, not your street or my street. I will repeat, October 15th was the STARTING POINT of the financial panic. The climax is normally reached 2 to 3 weeks later.

A Halloween Massace on Wall Street still looks highly likely. Watch out for October 31st. Once the support at DJIA 7500-7600 is broken, the crash will be confirmed, the panic will start. I believe that could happen tomorrow -- October 27th.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 17:42
LGB (@ Realistic...re Puetz) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Never mind, found them. And might as well post them here, since this Puetz is an expert analyst of the same caliber as *Fwipe, and these reposts appropriately belong here with him.

Sorry for any redundancy, I know you've been doing an excellent job with this but since you're not around this afternoon.....

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 17:26
LGB ( @ Realistic...re Lunacy..... Where are you when I need you... ) ID#269409:
Copyright 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 18:25
Puetz ( New Zealand and Gold ) ID#222167:
Copyright 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lurker 777: Now that the lunar-eclipse has passed, you are
already seeing the changed psychological effects in New
Zealand. The post-eclipse crash has started in far away
New Zealand. It will probably spread to Asia and Europe
as those markets open. By Tuesay morning, when US stocks
open, a rout could already be in the making . I believe,
somehow, the maximum tidal ( gravitational forces ) that
occur during a lunar-eclipse effect the thinking of a
large number of people. It was this delusional thinking
that helped create the Sept. 1 - 4 upward consolidation.
With the eclipse gone, investors thinking will become
more normal. They will realize the terrible financial
situation, and sell heavily.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 17:23
LGB ( @ Puetz.... DOW ended up approx. 200 higher on the week. ) ID#269409:
Copyright 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Puetz, The 1000 point drop we were supposed to anticipate this week..induced by Lunar events of course, didn't occur. Can we
still anticipate 2000 to 4000 points of drop next week, or do we have to wait till Halloween for that now?


Date: Sun Sep 06 1998 17:06
Puetz ( STOCK MARKET CRASH -- UPDATE ) ID#222167:
Copyright 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The lunar-eclipse has come and gone early this morning.
Ironically, that's the area of my research that's getting
the most attention these days. Dan Ascini ( Elliott Wave
analyst ) , Robert Prechter ( The Elliott Wave Theorist ) ,
Peter Eliades ( Stock Market Cycles ) , and Jim Davidson
( Strategic Investment ) -- all have noted about the Sept.
6th lunar-eclipse, the 6-week topping-pattern, etc. in their
most recent newsletters. All of this has been positive
publicity.

Conversely, my book, Total Collapse has gotten a negative
reaction from CNBC anchor, Mark Haines, on friday morning,
Sept. 4th. While Total Collapse was written 1 1/2 years
ago, and described in detail the coming global deflation
and financial crash, Haines called the book mush -- just
like Joe Kernen's brain. I take it that Haines doesn't
think it's possible to have a global financial melt-down.

2 weeks from now, Haines may view things differently. The
6-week topping pattern is now complete. The lunar-eclipse
has passed. The topping-pattern in 1998 has been far
weaker than similar patterns in 1929 and 1987, suggesting
that the coming 1998 crash will be far worse than either
of those crashes.

Right now, it still looks like DJIA 3000 by the end of this
month is a reasonable projection. With the 30% circuit
breaker set at -2600 before the DJIA closes for the day,
it won't take to long to get to 3000.

Next week, I believe the DJIA could fall 1000 points. The
week after ( week ending Sept. 18 ) the DJIA could fall
2500 to 3500 points.

The DJIA has now started the Panic-Phase of the crash.
Huge daily declines will become the norm. Panic, hysteria,
and blood-in-the-streets will become widespread.

Regards,

Steve Puetz


Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 14:27
LGB (@ Realistic...you baffled him) ID#269409:
Copyright © 1998 LGB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
He's not answering you because he can't possibly understand how ALL beings aren't existentialists. For *Fwipe, reality is simply whatever he might want it to be....it's difficult for him to conceptualize that otehrs may consider reality as something outside themselves. Thus he probably doesn't even understand the nature of your question to him.

Oh yes, on another subject, I posted on K1 re Puetz's, once again FLAWLESS record of bad calls...with the yet another Market crash for this week... ( the eclispe was to usher in a 1000 point drop this week, beginning Tuesday of course and 2000 next I believe ) but I wasn't able to find some of his posts with the actual point drop predictions.

If you have them handy, perhaps you would be so kind!

*L

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 13:56
Realistic (@farfel) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer the question below when you get a chance.

Thanks.

Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 21:00
Realistic ( @farfel ) ID#410194:
Don't forget to tell us what is your opinion today of charting and technical analysis.

Has it changed?

Thanks.

Date: Wed Mar 04 1998 20:35
farfel ( @OLDMAN...IN AN EXISTENTIAL WORLD... ) ID#339265:
...like the one we live in, there need not be any rules or scientific formulae in which things begin or end. Charts are meaningless when random chaos appears.

So load up on your Metamucil.

It's here.


F*, the Unpronounceable.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 13:51
Realistic (@farfel) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Don't forget to answer the question below when you get a chance.

Thanks.

Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 21:00
Realistic ( @farfel ) ID#410194:
Don't forget to tell us what is your opinion today of charting and technical analysis.

Has it changed?

Thanks.

Date: Wed Mar 04 1998 20:35
farfel ( @OLDMAN...IN AN EXISTENTIAL WORLD... ) ID#339265:
...like the one we live in, there need not be any rules or scientific formulae in which things begin or end. Charts are meaningless when random chaos appears.

So load up on your Metamucil.

It's here.


F*, the Unpronounceable.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 13:37
Realistic (@farfel) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Bonds in all-time high terriroty, 12 points above March 3rd!

Please tell us how your friends feel about it.

Thanks.

farfel ( @DONALD...YOU SAY DEFLATION, FRIEDMAN SAYS INFLATION, AND I SAY... ) ID#28585:
NEO-STAGFLATION....

I warned many friends to avoid this Wall Street propagandistic manipulation...in fact, I went down on my knees with some of them and BEGGED THEM not to place any monies in bonds. I categorically predicted the current bearish scenario now unfolding in the bond market; it will only exacerbate as the TORRENT of newly printed money ( printed in the aftermath of the October crash in order to maintain liquidity ) begins to hammer bonds even further over the short-term..


Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 03:45
farfel (PLAT and PALLADIUM....) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@RJujuBUGal...I just don't know...

One moment I loves Plat...

...and the next moment, I could care less.

One moment, I think it's headed for the moon...

...and the next I figure it's rangebound.

Reminds me of a split personality kid I know who posts on this forum and K-1.

One day, he tells everyone that gold is poopoo...and the next he extolls it to the stars.

Shifts around like the everchanging wind.

Weird kid, if you ask me.

But I still get a kick out of him.

Thanks

F*


Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 03:37
farfel (RE: PLAT and PALLADIUM...) ID#17077:
Now that Russia's Chermyodin is gone, replaced by a de facto Commie, I am beginning to like Plat and Palladium more and more. Maybe there really will be genuine supply problems after all.

Hey, I may just go out and buy my wife another PLAT present for next Valentine's Day.

Come to think of it...No, I'd rather buy her a gold treasure instead.

Deedy do.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 03:13
farfel (@RHODY...Gold Lease Rates....) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The hedge funds and gold shorts will do their damndest over the next two trading days to try and fake out the general equities bears and gold longs. With collapsing global derivatives, they are trying to heal a slashed jugular vein with mere bandages.

Do Not Let Them Fool You! Stay the course.

Rhody, you wondered about the ultra low lease rates for gold, conjecturing that so long as they are so low, gold must necessarily fall farther. Essentially, you went so far as to claim that you believe the gold bear continues. You contended that there necessarily MUST be a spike in gold lease rates in order to portend tightening CB gold supply into the market.

I think your analysis is mistaken.

Here's why:

Although historically, the lease rate has jumped in advance of big moves in gold....if you believe the major Western CB's are trying to contain the gold price ( ergo protect the US Dollar ) , then one would expect
them to encourage gold shorting via the lowest rates possible. Essentially, gold shorting has evolved into a form of US Dollar protection IMHO.

Only problem is this:

If the hedge funds are bleeding via huge losses in general equities and erroneous bets against the Yen, then they may not be in a position to borrow gold at even a mere .5%. I would imagine that is why the CB's keep dropping the gold lease rate...as a means of encouraging gold shorts.

With margin calls pouring in ( God, just imagine if you held major positions in some of those plunging US bank stocks! WHEW! ) , then what hedge fund in hell wants to think about leasing gold in that type of panicky, desperate environment? Naturally, a fund would be far too busy containing its equities losses and raising capital. I would imagine it would wish to avoid expending any new capital for new gold leases. More likely, the fund's best methodology for raising fast ( desperate? ) infusions of capital or avoiding greater losses of capital ( take your pick ) would consist of closing out its gold shorts. This capital could then be applied to protecting fast-weakening positions in the equities/derivatives markets.

In other words, Rhody, the funds just may be too busy patching their sinking ships at this moment to take the proactive measure of leasing gold.

So, I do not think you will see huge spikes in gold lease rates until the moment arrives ( hope it doesn't! ) when things completely get out of hand and the western CB's, instead of protecting the US Dollar, simply give it up, and rush for the lifeboats themselves, urgently recalling gold loans and bidding for gold wherever they can find it. There's your future spike in gold lease rates...TO THE MOON ( as BUGal is wont to say ) .

Essentially, I think it's all part of The New Gold Paradigm ( as described by myself upon Vronsky's great web-site, golden eagle ) .

Thanks.

F*


Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 02:20
farfel (@MJPL...good analysis... you figured it out...) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks.

F*

---------------------------
Date: Thu Sep 10 1998 23:51
MJPL ( POG and the yield on the US Long Bond ) ID#153120:
Since 1974, that is all the data I have for gold, POG and the yield on the US long bond go hand in hand, as gold
went so did the bond. With damn few exceptions gold has called every major move up and down for the long
bond and GOLD HAS LEAD THE LONG BOND BY AS LITTLE AS 4 WEEKS TO AS MUCH AS 9
MONTHS. It is amazing how closly these two series track each other. If gold keeps it uptrend and history is any
guide, and I think it is, the flight to quality into bonds will turn in to a flight for life out of bonds and into gold.

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 01:52
farfel (@JEIL...interesting comments...RE: GOLD) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 01:29
Jeil ( Still a temporary gold bear ) ID#253228:
Copyright 1998 Jeil/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is usually the height of bravado to step in front of a speeding freight train. ( It is nicer if it is a steam engine of
the variety experienced back in the 1950's. ) The essence of the question is which way the train is going.

I continue to believe that we are in a gold bear until late this year. This gold rally has more the feel of a C wave of
an A-B-C correction that began in mid summer. The B portion of the wave pointed downward which is not a good
sign for those positioned long gold/gold shares. Next week should give some clearity. If gold and shares break
upward then I will admit to being in error. If a break to the downside materializes, then deflation continues and
those who went long will have been premature ejactulators.

When CNBC is running commentary that gold/gold shares may be a good place to park money, look out on the downside.

---------

Actually, my own theory as to yesterday's spate of CNBC pro-gold info and somewhat negative stories on bonds concerns liability....in other words, I think they are covering their butts....FINALLY.

If bonds turn out to a disaster ( as far as flight to safety ) and gold does indeed end up the ultimate flight to safety, then I would imagine there may be many enraged viewers who will not appreciate the continuous neverending stream of CNBC agitprop that bonds are the ultimate flight to safety. They may in fact take recourse against the network for providing misinformation.

Again, if stagflation is here, bonds are about to face some major problems. MAJOR!

Finally, I would imagine that The Street and its affiliated Big Media now wish to promote paper that will do well in a hideous Bear.

It is not in The Street's interest to see all paper burn. IMHO.

THanks.

F*

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 01:35
farfel (Titanic Psychology....) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Company upgrades? A sudden spate of favorable corporate news releases?

The Wall Street analysts and brokers are doing whatever they can to turn around the expanding negative psychology in the markets.

The analogy:

The sinking of the Titanic = Wall Street Finally Facing Reality of Sinking Global Markets and Currencies.

The crewmen = the Wall Street Analysts Who have Access to the Lifeboats.

The special lifeboats provided to the wealthy Insiders and Favored Clients = The Spate of Analyst Upgrades and Favorable Corporate News Releases, provided in order to allow the insiders to escape the market debacle, ahead of the average investors.

It seems interestingly appropriate that the video release of TITANIC occurred this month.

Very interesting.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 01:22
farfel (@RJugAL in Bed...) ID#17077:
...but you'll always find old farfel here on K-2.

Sometimes on golden-eagle too.

I still like Plat and Palladium...NOT at these prices however.

I'll wait for them to fall...as sure they must.

Plat @ 325 by 11/11.

Yes.

Thanks.

F*

Date: Fri Sep 11 1998 01:12
Liberty (@ Jujube) ID#316404:
Well, a Gold forum over on the BEagle site eh? I'll just have to head on over there and paruse the goins on...sounds like there could be some instructive late night reading material.....

( And maybe a late night snack to be had! )

GoooooGoldPlatinumSilver.....like a McGuire Homer



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