- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 20:06
Bill2j (@All) ID#259400:
- Shoot, just for fun and games, suppose we do have a recession? Wow! Our children would starve to death. Well, at least a couple of mine would. Just a thought.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 20:03
Bill2j (Abbey Joseph Cohen) ID#259400:
- Ok, maybe I'm a little dim. Just what precisely has Abbey Jospeh Cohen done to deserve the adulation she commands? Throw the numbers out there, dazzle me and maybe I'll be a believer. On the other hand what if she has been sniffing glue and the stock market is going down? What if, god forbid, a recession after a decade of uninterrupted growth is in the cards. Hell, all I'm saying is what if? Just a thought.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 18:55
2BR02B? (farf) ID#266105:
That was it and old stuff at that. Well, maybe one more on
Into Wishin' but I shan't plague.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 17:44
TYoung (F*...peaceful...not what I see in front of us all...) ID#317193:
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 17:39
farfel (Nobody Wants to be a Sucker....) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
- My final thoughts of the day:
As some of you may recall, I wrote several months ago about my speculation that the equities markets would begin to experience trouble in the Summer.
My central thesis revolved around the fact that a consensus of market analysts and market investors ( I personally polled ) believed that weakness would not begin until October.
Furthermore, I theorized that the government would be more inclined to allow the equities bubble to pop during Summer for psychological reasons since Summer is a time when the people would be in a more optimistic frame of mind ( surrounded by singing birds and flowers and sunshine, etc. ) . After a person takes a severe financial hit, he may take some solace in seeing the many other intangible virtues in life besides one's financial circumstances. It puts things in perspective. On the other hand, there is nothing more depressing than losing one's financial shirt, then stepping outside into either the dying environment of Fall or the cold miserable chill of Winter. Truly depressing because those two seasons are seasons of decay and have traditionally been associated with much mass depression and suicide.
So, it is interesting to note that severe troubles in the equities markets began in late July.
Now, the question is this: when will the culmination of the equities markets' trouble occur?
Again, I must say I would theorize that it will be sooner than later. Most of my friends who imagined an October market debacle expressed definite intentions to exit no later than early to mid- September. They described themselves as shrewd investors who would not allow themselves to be suckered into holding equities into October.
So, the mass small investor psychology suggests September troubles before October problems.
The major objections to this thesis have been presented by those market professional investors who feel that, since Goldman Sachs is NOT going public until late October....and since Treasury Secretary Rubin is a former partner of GS ( with some personal GS financial interests held in escrow ) , then surely, Rubin will do everything in his power to ensure highly auspicious market conditions for Goldman's public offering...for his own personal benefit as well as the benefit of former colleagues and friends.
This particular objection does have a certain compelling logic.
However, here are the central questions: can one man ( Rubin ) hold the entire US financial market together if the mass investor psychology has truly shifted? Moreover, is it possible for Rubin to preclude the Bear downdraft when it appears Fed Reserve Chairman Greenspan is no longer preaching the America is Immune from Global Economic Contagion gospel?
Finally, with Starr's impeachment report ready to be released any day now, it seems the President will receive another ( maybe fatal ) blow to his credibility.
Essentially, with a government seemingly no longer united in purpose and interpretation of domestic economic affairs....with a government whose leader no longer commands any credibility or respect from his very own insiders and advisors ( after all, he lied to them for half a year! ) ....with a government that no longer commands any credibility from foreign goverments ( after all, if Clinton lied to his very own inner circle, then how can foreign leaders trust him? ) ....then one must wonder: can this same effete government preclude the apparent urgent troubles facing America's markets and economy?
What do you think?
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 16:21
farfel (@2BRO2B....interesting poetry...) ID#17077:
- ...keep it coming. Maybe you can help turn K-2 into a truly artistic alternative interpetation of PM's.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 16:18
farfel (@PETE...thanks for the good words...) ID#17077:
- ...however, it does not bother me to post here on K-2.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 16:12
farfel (@TOM YOUNG...thanks for the kind words...) ID#17077:
- ...very peaceful and reassuring.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 16:10
farfel (@RUMPLED...my thoughts on gold and the markets for next week?) ID#17077:
- ...Impossible to say.
Just protect yourself.
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 16:04
farfel (Greenspan Preparing Americans for Disaster) ID#17077:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
- Talk about Paradigm Shift....only months ago, Greenspan testified that America was experiencing a virtuous cycle, the continuation of the Goldilocks economy...not too hot, not too cold.
Now, all of a sudden, he is finally admitting that America cannot remain a paradisiacal island unto itself as global economic devastation whirls around the globe ( See Article Below )
What a confession!! Moreover, the timing is very interesting as it is occuring just before the post-Labor Day week when a virtual consensus of Bearish analysts are calling for market calamity.
Rubin ( who I categorically blame for allowing America to get into this mess ) must be livid! Imagine...Greenspan is NOT willing to maintain the facade of unlimited American prosperity any longer.
The equities and bond markets are in a NO-WIN situation...raise or lower interest rates...either scenario spells disaster. Lowering interest rates augurs inflation and kills both bonds and equities. Raising interest rates explodes both the bonds and equities bubbles.
The only true solution is to reconstruct the global currency structure AFTER market equilibrium is restored at whatever lower level it obtains. It will be necessary to fix the new global currency system against some kind of standard ( gold maybe? ) .
Unfortunately, America has experienced a false prosperity this past decade at the expense of many suffering nations. As I have written for over the past year, sadly, it seems that global economic collapse might be the only condition compelling the major Superpowers to sit down together in one room and agree about the future direction of global currencies and markets -- without equivocation or subterfuge or lack of purpose. As you may recall, for the past year, I wrote that as long as America felt it could escape the contagion, then I hypothesized that the country would NEVER take the necessary measures to stem the economic epidemic. So far I have been proven to be correct.
So batten down the hatches...I think we have reached a point where it may be time for technicians to throw out their charts. Future moves in the market may be extremely radical, NASB, and as such, highly unpredictable for chartists that are accustomed to steady, dull, trend-like moves over the past decade.
PHYSICAL gold and silver...soon to be acknowledged as the true flight to safety.
Friday September 4, 7:46 pm Eastern Time
U.S. economy won't escape turmoil
``It is just not credible that the United States can remain an oasis of
prosperity unaffected by a world that is experiencing greatly increased
stress,'' Greenspan said in a speech at the University of California in
Although he did not directly comment on the bank's interest rate policy,
Greenspan said it was a time to be cautious, implying there would be no
change soon in official U.S. interest rates. ``Clearly, the history of
large swings in investor confidence and equity premiums for rational and
other reasons counsels caution in the current context,'' he said.
Greenspan said that in the Spring and early Summer of this year Fed
policymakers were concerned the strong U.S. economy would fuel
inflationary price pressures. But that fear had since abated and the
Federal Open Market Committee saw the risks as balanced between economic
slowdown and inflation.
``By the time of the Committee's August meeting, the risks had become
balanced, and the Committee will need to consider carefully the
potential ramifications of ongoing developments since that meeting,'' he
- Date: Sat Sep 05 1998 15:06
TYoung (F*...keep on posting...) ID#317193:
- I agree re: multiple personality type person. Just going to avoid contact. Unfortunately, I will never get permission to have a beer.: )
Still, I do like to read his short term calls on gold...not bad so far...see how he does in a rising market. Yes?