KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:53
Jack () ID#252127:

The Yen at 141 and a pair to the US dollar at Yahoo @ 11:50 EST, looks like the Russias problems broke the strange yen/gold relationship over the past few days.

I can't believe that Buffett just accepted the opines of some experts relative to silver before his purchases. With his resources, I'm sure he had qualified people checking out any possibility of hidden supplies.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:52
sharefin (J Stack on Y2k.) ID#284255:
-
Should he stay on track with stocks?

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Y2k and your petrol bowser:
-------------
One, more then likely just about all gas station pumps these days use some type of electronic control for dispension, especially those that let you pay at the pump with a card. If you can't get it out of the storage tank, it's not going
to do ya any good. I also suspect there is some type of monitoring system in the storage tanks that could possibly fowl up so who knows. If the stations are ok, then you have to look at the gas trucks. If their schedualing gets messed up, your looking at possible gas shortages all over the place. If this happens I suggest putting some spikes on your car cause it's going to be Mad Max like you won't believe.
``````````````````````````````````````````````
I know a little bit about this. I spent almost a year training gas station owners/managers how to use their computers, and I have had some exposure to gas station system installations. My experience relates to large fuel company chains, not small independant dealers.

How Things Work 101 - Lesson 14: Gas Stations

There are a number of connected computerized systems in the average gas station:

1 ) The pump. This may or may not contain a card reader ( CRIND ) , but it will always have a connection to the front office computer ( cash register ) in the gas bar. It is not possible to manually operate a modern gas pump.

2 ) The front office computer. Sometimes a 486. Most companies have been upgrading to pentiums in the past year. Used for activating the pumps, accepting payment, processing sales of other items ( like pop, cigarettes ) . Networked to the oil company Head Office, so H/O knows exactly how much fuel is sold every day. Also contains the system for
changing the pump prices.

3 ) The POS terminal. Connected to the front office system AND the Head Office computer AND the bank. In gas stations that are part of an oil company chain, the individual retailer does not get the money from credit/debit card sales - Head Office gets it. ( Head Office owns the fuel in the ground, and collects money from the sale of this fuel. Fuel sales, other sales, cash collections, and CC collections are balanced daily, and either the gas station owes H/O money or H/O owes the gas station money. )

4 ) The back office computer. Receives info from the front office computer regarding details of daily transactions. This is where the inventory ( non-fuel ) database is kept, and this is where the routine bookkeeping is processed. Also connected to the Head Office, which polls the computer a couple of times a week.

5 ) The Veederoot ( electronic fuel tank monitor ) . Keeps track of how much fuel is in the tanks. Also used to monitor water levels. This isn't connected to anything, as far as I can tell.

6 ) Numerous cables, modems and hubs to connect all of the above.

Scheduling of fuel deliveries is done by H/O, based on the station's tank capacities, sales history, and sales volume since the last delivery. It is rare for a site to run out of fuel, or have to call for a special delivery.

Fuel deliveries to an individual site are only made if the site is current in payment for past fuel sales.

I'll leave it to all of you to count up the number of different ways that gas stations might be affected by Y2k bugs in any of their systems.

------------
If these two don't fail, you gotta look at the most vulnerable part of the system, the oil fields themselves. Remember folks, most of our domestic oil goes for military fuel, and you know they aren't gonna give it up for you Land Rover. From what I've heard, most third world nations that give us oil haven't done much to fix it. If they go down, we have the Oil Crisis all over again.

You forgot about the refineries. Thousands of electronic monitoring systems, process controls, and measuring devices. Lotsa 386's and 486's.

As someone else so eloquently put it: *BOOM*
--
Jo Anne


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:45
JTF (One way to say no to the IMF) ID#57232:
SDRer: We can refuse to give them any more money. My intuitive guess is that they would not ask for money unless they had to. So -- their normal secretive avenues of cash generation have dried up.

If you are right, they may regroup, and try to float more credit/debt. Hope not.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:43
Scotty (Holy Moly!) ID#290271:
-
Yikes! And double yipes! A couple weeks ago, the XAU just couldn't go any lower. So ol' Scotty belly-ups to the bar and plunks down everything except the kitchen sink and the dog's dish. Gulp!

However, it will probably rebound soon -- not so for a colleague that I have recently lost touch with. He is in his late 20's and read me the riot act about a year ago that this market will never go down and that I was crazy for even thinking it might. Yes, he's never seen a down market like the grizzled among us. Last time I checked, he had everything in options and dirivatives. I can only assume he is dead broke today, and will be broker ( or deader ) tomorrow.

I've been out of stocks since around 9000 the *first* time! I feel pretty good about that -- but am bummed about the turn in gold. Sheesh, if a big country like Russia is going to pieces, I only assumed that everyone would run to gold to hang out until the dust clears. Hey, it could happen......

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:42
Scotty (Holy Moly!) ID#290271:
-
Yikes! And double yipes! A couple weeks ago, the XAU just couldn't go any lower. So ol' Scotty belly-ups to the bar and plunks down everything except the kitchen sink and the dog's dish. Gulp!

However, it will probably rebound soon -- not so for a colleague that I have recently lost touch with. He is in his late 20's and read me the riot act about a year ago that this market will never go down and that I was crazy for even thinking it might. Yes, he's never seen a down market like the grizzled among us. Last time I checked, he had everything in options and dirivatives. I can only assume he is dead broke today, and will be broker ( or deader ) tomorrow.

I've been out of stocks since around 9000 the *first* time! I feel pretty good about that -- but am bummed about the turn in gold. Sheesh, if a big country like Russia is going to pieces, I only assumed that everyone would run to gold to hang out until the dust clears. Hey, it could happen......

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:39
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (Robert Farrell just talked about this market eventually going to the safe havens before it's over--) ID#372262:
what he meant to say was GOLD!!! Did ya' hear that EB and Realistic--GOLD=THE ULTIMATE SAFE HAVEN!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:36
JTF (Deflationary collapse) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
D.A.: I think much of the problem with looking at this scenario is in definitions. We all can agree on what inflation is, but deflation is much tougher. Partially because our 'fiat' currency systems are supposed to eliminate deflation of any kind, and partially because it is a rare occurence in our 'fiat' currency era.
I agree with you that if the US economy does implode due to a deflationary currency collapse ( perhaps AG wasn't quite quick enough on the money supply trigger ) what will happen is that many ( imported ) goods will go up in price -- not down. This seems like a basic impossibility, but it has to do with whether liquidity leaves the country. If the loss is due to a sudden exiting of foreign investment, the local currency must go down in value, not up. Much of the deflation of the US dollar is due to the fact that the other currencies have inflated.
I am not so sure about this scenario if the country involved is a net creditor, not a net debtor. They would be in much better shape, as there would be less of a run on the currency in question.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:36
crazytimes (@ RJ) ID#342376:
Yes, we are all entitled to our opinions but don't assume you speak for Kitco. It is your war with Farfel ( at this point ) not anyone else's. I don't see anyone else running over there to stamp him into the ground.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:35
panda (One last thing....) ID#30116:
Globex up and gold going down, slightly... So what else is new? Good night all..............................................

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:33
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (The whole world is about to discover the true value of) ID#372262:
GOLD!! As the paper burns! Better listen to Robert Farrell on Moneyline! He is growlin' like a real live GRIZZLY! Grrrrrrr!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:32
Jack (3-cubed) ID#252127:

I heard about plans for the dual US dollar. I don't believe the International version has been launched, or has it?

My take is that blackmarket and other foreign dollar holders would get shaky if/when the old version was called in. Also if it occurred, time would have to be given to the legitimate holders to make the exchange.

The news would signal that a dual standard in value $ was down the pike and I suspect that the holders might use the old dollars to buy other currencies both real and fiat.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:31
Dutchman (PALMAC) ID#268260:
Copyright © 1998 Dutchman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ECO is a quality junior mining company. I own 13,000 shares and just put in an order for 3,000 more shares. I think it will drop to somewhere below 1 1/2, at which point it is a heck of a steal. Go to Yahoo!.com and look up ECO. You will find some good news on this mining company. I keep looking for a better company whose shares I can accumulate but none seems to match ECO. ECO is one of the most heavily traded gold shares and very liquid. At #315/oz in May, ECO shares reached 3 7/8. You can nearly triple your money on this stock with just a $35/oz rise in the POG. You might also want to look at TVX, another miner I am looking at. TVX hit 1 1/2 per share today before rebounding 3/16. This company also provides a good bang for the buck. I hope this helps. Please, however, remember this is only one man's opinion. I have been wrong in the past!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:31
panda (@!) ID#30116:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Looked like a normal day to me. The stock market fell apart. The spinmasters are trying to put it back together. Alan Greenspan is not asleep at the switch, he's dead at the switch. There is a difference, however slight... Gold, ... fell. Kitco was locked up and out... BTW, stocks are better buy now. :- ) For all intents and purposes the market is inverting the yield curve. HELLO, FED, HELLO! If we don't bounce from here, ouch. I was in a Schwabee office today. Just a couple of customers in the office. The brokers were.... not happy? I saw one customer getting real time quotes at one of their terminals, nothing but anxiomatic sighs. Yup, if there's no bounce tomorrow........ It is Friday, no? Time to go to bed...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:29
kapex (Japan heading down again!) ID#218222:
.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:29
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (VIX @39.50 UP 8.50 Today!!) ID#372262:
Come on EB & Realistic! Time to BUY your @$$ off!! We're oversold!!Har har har!! You guys should be workin' for Joe Batty fagia! Har har! Shoulda' listened to Puetz and Cheezebrain! Har har!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:29
RJ (..... Geez, grant, calm down .....) ID#411259:

Maybe less coffee, yes?

Yes

PS
We are all entitled to our opinion here
Even you, even I, even Fumpy
Perhaps your scroll button
Would be a better alternative
Than yelling and swearing at me, no?

Pragmatism and all that rot

Pip pip

OK

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:27
weiser (Hello everyone) ID#202123:

To all the great people who make up this oais of wisdom and thought. There is no greater site then this in all of cyberspace ( or whatever it's called now. ) .

Damn, I don't know what came over me just now. Oh well.

Go Gold---Go Kitco

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:26
Steve in TO__A (Skinny - There's no law in Canada saying a gold mine can't . . . ) ID#287337:
sell gold to the public, or anyone else, just as Chas has pointed out for the US.

I've never heard of a Canadian mine doing that, though. I presume they would rather just ship the stuff in large amounts.

- Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:24
SDRer__A (ShareFine-They hope? ) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Asian Utilities Hope Millennium Bug Won't Bite

SINGAPORE -- ( Reuters ) Asian power utilities are in a race to keep
electricity running as the shadow of the year 2000 computer bug creeps
closer, but according to responses from a Reuters survey preparations
vary widely across the region.
http://www.insidechina.com/china/aroundasia/news/02.html
But what is Hope? Nothing but the paint on the face of Existence; the least touch of truth rubs it off, and then we see what a hollow-cheeked harlot we have got hold of. Lord Byron

JTF@IMF.Power.Play.HQ Ah my friend, the lack of actual money is not
a consideration; Confidence, Hope, Mummy make it better are the IMF's
'badges of office'. Seriously, this is of enormous importance: there is
a human tendency to follow the chap who says he has the map out of the maze. The Interim Council is working hard to tout their possession of a credible map. We must say, You had your shot at it. Not again. Never.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:22
cherokee (@...cloud.nine....--the.temptations--.....you.can.be.what.you.wanna.be......) ID#288229:

thanks fin dude....time to wander....ssma!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:21
chas (Skinney re gold sales) ID#147201:
Depends on how and where they sell it. There are ways to fabricate and sell without tax.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:18
Lan Man (@Market Rap with Bill Fleckenstein) ID#320108:
-
I would continue to keep my eye on gold. It is one asset class that has been hated, and it has been going down for 17 years. Gold stocks have

become very cheap financially: At today's prices you can buy some gold stocks, good properties, with production costs of $220-$230 an ounce and

reserves in the ground valued at $30.

So when you add all that up you can buy gold in the ground, plus the producing mines and other properties, for less than the cost of gold. I don't know when the gold story is going to catch on or when people are going to stop hating it. I do know that I would rather own gold than the PC and chip stocks.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:17
cherokee (@apofortypo) ID#288229:
coconut..

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:16
robnoel__A (HOW TO RESTORE VALUE TO THE RUBLE...A GOLD RUBLE...ITS OFFICIAL SORT OF.......) ID#411112:
just got this off the wires.... http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1003.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:14
JTF (Thanks) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
D.A.: Your comment that local country US dollar reserves are usually not enough to overcome the effect of local dollar buying or selling makes alot of sense. This is very much the same thing we have noticed in the US, that the US FED cannot really move the US dollar either one way or the other, unless it is about to go that way anyway. The dollar trade volumes are just to high!
With regard to the CRY0, I too am amazed regarding how low it has gone. I don't recall the last time it was that low -- but over 10 years ago. Now who can -- with a straight face -- say that we have had no inflation for over 10 years? No one. Hence -- I can only conclude that the CRY0 is way down due to very bearish sentiment -- and hence is oversold. QED.
I would guess that the ratio of the spot index to the futures index ( CRY0 ) might be a worthwhile commodities speculative sentiment indicator.
And -- the JOC looks like it has bottomed.
So -- we should have a pretty good precious metals rally fairly soon. All we need to do is wait a few months for the excessively negative ( deflationary ) sentiment to abate.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:14
APH (IDT - Thanks) ID#255226:
I came in today flat the S&P. When I saw the S&P breaking 1075 on Globex I remembered you saying you would short it under 1075. I got short at 1073 and covered at 1043 a little early I then went tubing with my kid. Tonight I bought the SnP at 1032. Don't plan on holding very long it was low risk ( 3 pts ) . Normally I would be looking for a rally into Labor Day but this mkt has had so much damage done to it I doubt if any rally would last more then 2 days.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:13
robnoel__A (HOW TO RESTORE VALUE TO THE RUBLE...A GOLD RUBLE...ITS OFFICIAL SORT OF.......) ID#411112:
just got this off the wires....


http://www.newsday.com/news/news1003.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:11
palmac (Need Opinion) ID#22751:
Considering today's action and the general trend of the metals
market...I would like an opinion on ECO and MYGD. I have been
a lurker for about a year and have never felt I had the expertise
to comment on so many learned minds. I appreciate you all.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:07
grant (RJ, shut the F up!!! I don't care about 404, I like and enjoy FARFEL) ID#432221:

FARFEL, FARFEL, FARFEL, FARFEL,
I DON'T CARE, I'M BUYIN' MORE!!!!!!!



SHUTUP RJ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
gb

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 23:05
HighRise (US$ Falling) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Yen
141.05
-1.10
____________ Mark
1.7992
+0.0016

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:58
sharefin (Cherokee) ID#284255:
Try again
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:57
D.A. (quiz.answer) ID#7568:
The Indonesian Rupiah! Will wonders never cease.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:57
JTF (IMF) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
SDRer: Don't you get the impression that the IMF is acting like the G7 fiat currency spokesmen, exporting credit/debt to the benefit of the creditors -- the G7 banks? Fortunately the IMF is virtually broke, and cannot sell its gold, despite the desires of the US. Sounds like a broken record -- just replace 1998 with 1977-78 or so. Then as now it was the WorldBank/US/IMF against the BIS. The BIS stared them down, and they capitulated -- and the gold sales ended.
This time the stakes are much higher, IMHO. The world's fiat currencies, as exported by the IMF, are teetering on the brink of oblivion. If all goes well, a few country currencies fall in -- rolling devaluations, and the BIS puts the brakes on again. If Oldman's worst scenario develops, there will be little the BIS will be able to do, except make sure that there is at least one bank still solvent. Theirs.
One thing I've never understood is why the G7 CB's are members of the BIS, and the IMF. How can AG, for example, play both sides of the fence?
Is it just to have backup if the fiat currencies fail? I don't know.
I guess if you are a G7 CB you fall into the debt/credit trap that virtually any Keynsian ( ? ) bank falls into -- using the money supply to ease the recessions -- everyone is doing it, so why not you? The gold standard is a thing of the past, and we can put an end to that dirty word, recession. Only problem is, the CB's have traded with the devil, and will eventually lose due to inflation -- and eventually burn in the granddaddy of a deflation that would make many people ( AG included ) wish we never left the gold standard.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:55
cherokee (@....looking.for.the.red.glare...from.saudia.arabia.....it.comes....) ID#288229:

the-fin-man-who-shares.....

where is the url dude? i'm re-building my library of url's

never knew what i had till it was gone...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:53
Suspicious (The Grizz is upon us Folks, bearing his teath) ID#287312:
Nikkei 14128, and my guess is Europe will be red again in the am.
BEARX gained 5.46% today : )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:53
SDRer__A (Gold--the counterbalance) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
QUESTION: Secondly you assume that governments will put aside their own self Interest to act together on such a strategy.

GOOD POINT--what if they ALL know The System has become too
fragile to continue without RADICAL adjustment. To Save the System means saving the politicians necks and the banker's wallets; in addition, every book I've read has put Saving the System as the Prima Objective of human economic activity. ( Griny thing. )

In 1976 they may have believed that the SDR and killing gold would set them free. By 1983 they KNEW they were on a VERY slippery slope…and then appeared Derivatives! If it looks as if you might lose it all, perhaps compromises become more palatable?

QUESTION: Thirdly; the USG can not devalue the dollar except against gold. It is the only country in the world with that problem. It doesn't matter if it is a overt or covert devaluation. Gold must rise against any dollar depreciation.


DIFFICULT POINT-but gold IS the counterbalance between the dollar and the
EURO/dmark; about that there can be little doubt. And it will not be the USG devaluing the dollar-that's the brilliance

Remember this?
23.2. The mechanism for the creation of ECUs against gold and US
dollars as provided for by Article 17 of the EMS Agreement…

And it will not be the USG devaluing the dollar-that's the brilliance of it! It will be the dollar in parity with the Euro! Gold goes down in terms of the Dmark, but retains equivalence ( the term which EU is so fond of using ) with the EURO! 99.5% of the world's population won't notice, or care if they do because they believe GOLD ISN'T A FINANCIAL
ASSET! Naïve Americans will feel comfortable if gold went to $1.99 because gold doesn't matter any more; the Germans will smugly smile, because after the 10-phennig haircut, they may now purchase gold at half price!

QUESTION: Fourthly; all the countries that participate in such a strategy alienate their bondholders as the purchasing power of those instruments plummets. Now they do it over time and get away with it. Sudden movements are not permitted. Being unable to sell new bonds to the suckers, all governments would be forced to pare social programs to the bone, renege on those already promised, and risk citizen revolt.

EUROPEAN BONDHOLDERS ALREADY ARE PREPARED! They KNOW their
currencies are going to be rolled into the EURO. Caveat emptor. Moral hazard. Everything that one needs to know to see this , is a matter of public record on the Europa site. TRANSPARENCY! God, they are clever!

And the Europeans are already at the EURO bond trough. The Republic of Italy no less, did 4 billion of ECU ( which is EURO 1:1 ) in February! Everybody is deliriously happy-a brand new
currency to inflate! Or-perhaps, if we're very VERY luck-a gold standard system.

As for our bond markets-the bright ones have read the legal paper that we waded through, and carefully crafted the protocols to do a one on one roll into the EURO.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:53
sharefin (J Stack) ID#284255:
-
History would suggest only 2 probable scenarios at this critical juncture:
either the market will stabilize tomorrow from which it will launch the next
convincing rally attempt, or we could be heading into a meltdown scenario.
The reason we say that is because short-term indicators have now reached
very oversold levels, and because 1000 NY stocks ( 28% ) hit new yearly lows
today. That's the 3rd largest number in history. And this type of short-term
washout USUALLY marks a near-term bottom.
HOWEVER, this is also when a crash scenario unfolds ( if one might be
imminent ) . In both 1929 and 1987, the Crash struck within days after the
DJIA crossed the -13% loss threshold. In other words, that's when buy-&-hold
turned into cut-&-run. And right now, this market is down -12.6%.
What are the odds of a crash? That'll likely be answered by tomorrow noon
( 2pm ET ) . If the market is suffering heavy losses, then we're likely facing
a Black Monday ahead.
Regarding our current positions in Japan and Gold. Yes, they are at losses;
and yes, they will certainly lose more in a meltdown scenario. But to put
that in perspective, a buy-&-hold investor lost more in his portfolio in
JUST TODAY'S ACTION, than our TOTAL LOSS from those positions. What's more,
our short positions continue to make money.
TOMORROW'S STRATEGY...
First, remember it's usually not a good idea to trade in the midst of a
market meltdown - even if one is on the right side of the market. Volatility
is high, along with chances for being whipsawed or caught in the stampede.
For that reason, we cannot conservatively advise adding to short positions
without a short-term overbought rally. Our primary objective is surviving
this bear market... not making a killing.
We do however advise exiting any remaining non-core holdings tomorrow IF the
DJIA is below 8000 at mid-day ( 2pm ET ) . By non-core holdings, we mean stocks
that you do not CHOOSE to ride through this bear market with.
We must also advise exiting our position in Scudder Japan Fund ONLY IF the
DJIA is under 8000 at 2pm ET tomorrow. Likewise, we will exit our gold fund
position ( American Century Global Gold ) but only if the DJIA is under 8000
AND gold is also down at 2pm ET tomorrow... Although these are small
positions, we would prefer not to carry them into a possible crash-type of
scenario next week.
Note that we are holding on to our positions in Franco Nevada and Euro
Nevada. In our opinion, these are the best of the gold stocks... gold has
NOT fallen significantly under January's lows... and at some point in this
crisis, gold may yet ultimately shine.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:50
pdeep (reflation) ID#174103:
Copyright © 1998 pdeep/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I believe the FED is scared of the current worldwide deflation, and will move to lower rates in the near future. The dollar weakness, and the way short term rates have been acting, it also looks like the markets might be factoring in a rate decrease. US banks are beginning to get hit pretty hard, between derivatives, the decrease in profits from the borrow short lend long strategy, and the drop in loan demand in spite of low rates.

I think the pols realize that as the world's largest debtor, paying back those T-bills with more expensive dollars is not going to go over well with the taxpayers, who are going to be asked to supply the cash. the strategy will be to cheapen the dollars, and pay back with less expensive dollars.

But a further loosening of credit at this time will be a double-edged sword. Bond investors may push up long term rates, the USD will fall relative to other currencies, and gold will of course rise.

Until the USD weakens significantly, gold will remain depressed. IMVHO.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:49
D.A. (currency.flows) ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JTF:

Your question about central bank selling vs. other types of selling is a good one. In general, private, commercial and speculative selling, can combine to be a much greater force than central bank activity. One need only take a look at M1 in any currency vs. central bank reserves. The currency collapses we have seen throughout the world have all gone on despite the best efforts of central banks to stem the tide.

The CRB is of course a dollar based index and as such is dramatically effected by swings in the dollar. In addition, because almost all the commodities in the index are used as speculative vehicles, it is fair to say that extreme moves can and will be exacerbated by speculative positions. Because it is the nature of speculators to pile into something that is going for them, the extremes are just that, extreme.

If one were to look at only the supply and demand numbers for all commodites, combined with inventory levels and usage numbers, the price of the index based upon similar historical readings, would be much, much, higher than the current mark on the board. Part of this represents forced liquidations by those in need of cash, and part of this represents speculative activity.

Its pretty hard for me to believe that the CRB has blown through the 200 level, and yet there it is.

I think that going forward, it will be important to separate those assets whose price is dependant upon credit from those assets which are not. My guess is that those that are credit dependant are going to do a lot worse than those that are not.

I still don't buy the deflationary collapse argument. The fact remains that the Fed can print as much money as it wants whenever it wants. We may have an economic collapse, but it will not be deflationary, except to those assets which rely upon credit for their pricing structure. Ask someone living in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Korea, Russia, South Africa, Australia, Japan, or Mexico whether or not they see prices declining. If a collapse occurs in the industrialized world it is going to look remarkablely similar. Credit will be withdrawn and paper money will be printed.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:49
cherokee (@....---to.live.in.interesting.times.....AND.deadly.tam.bien....) ID#288229:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved

the symbol of a recovering economy....right..

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha59.gif

the c$...REAListically....WHO hammered canada AND mexico
as being propped-up husks of capitalism? WHO will defend
their policies now? where are the peopleo who tugged
on superman's cape....where are these curiencies going
from here? the same place as the rest of the worlds fiats,
including the us soon....into the sewers as the effluent they
have always been.....

there will be no quarter given when the hammer falls...the
available commodities will vanish in an instant...and expire
in weeks.....the peopleo who have made insane profits from their
paper will wipe their butts with the certificates when the
smoke clears...the wealth will go the same way it came...
un-believably.....the debt will remain...guess who will be
buying the assets of the peopleo at pennies on the dollar as
happened after the '29 crash....the same taskmasters, but another
generation....with the same familial ties....orchestrated for
the lemmings....

just like putting rice inside a cocnut shell with a hole large
enough for a monkey to get his hand in to feel the rice, but
not get it out....the monkey, being greedy, could be caught because
he refused to let go of 'HIS' prize........the monkey ended up in the
hunters pot due to greed....and ignorance of same.

how many monkees will be in the next pot that is boiling like mad?
me-thinks the pot will be full of monkees.....peopleo stew....yeechh..
sure is stinky, and there is a line as far as the eye can see.

cherokee!; ) ...dotssmfatimmb!.back.from.the.desert...digital.pics.of.sandia.peak.inbound..

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:48
skinny (Chas) ID#28994:
If gold is sold direct by the mine is it subject to sales taxes.
I assume it would be classed as a commodity.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:44
sharefin (Cherokee) ID#284255:
Here's a good bookmark for you.

You'll find many urls you like.

Cheers fromn the fin...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:38
chas (Skinney re GM sales) ID#147201:
Just fine in the US. I don't know about others, but I think John Disney said Harmony has their own refinery and does retail sales.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:29
sharefin (JTF) ID#284255:
-
Oldmans comments are spine chilling.
To venture out into the future and observe the coming changes.

I think we're heading there. Not nice.

Notice the PPT at work just before BC was on TV.

Same as last OCT and it didn't work.
They pushed the prem from -5 to just under 10 in a few minutes.
A total move of approx15 points.

Last Oct they pushed it 27 odd points to turn the market.

Sentiment has changed and they will have to step on the peddle to turn it this time.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Just received lots of info on Y2k and embedded chips in cars.
Yet to read and comprehend.
But the picture is getting gloomier.

NEWS FLASH: Andersen Consulting bars new Y2K work
Respice the url.
http://
www.idg.net/new_docids/consulting/andersen/consulting/accepting/worldwide/century/clients/systems/new_docid_9-67647.html

SYDNEY
Andersen Consulting plans to stop accepting year 2000 consulting work due to
fears it could be sued by clients whose systems fail at the turn of the
century,
ComputerWorld has been told.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:27
SDRer__A (Heads Up Alert--) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
One of the dangers in the days ahead, is that the IMF Interim Committee will seed itself in one of the sidewalk cracks, and like a hardy weed, establish itself yet again, but in a new and arguably more dangerous role. Here is a bit of the blueprint. One feels this is a critical
battle in the US/WB/IMF v BIS war. Gold must not lose this one.

Toward a New Financial Architecture for a Globalized World
Address by Michel Camdessus Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund at the Royal Institute of International Affairs

London, May 8, 1998
The first would be to revitalize the IMF Interim Committee. It could become an essential structure, because no other can match the scope of its responsibility and the legitimacy of its members, who are collectively responsible for key developments in the world economy. At present, however, it is hampered by the ritualism of its meetings and an insufficient awareness of its uniqueness and potential.

This is why I think that the suggestion of the French Minister of Finance, M. Strauss-Kahn, to consider its transformation[ of the Interim Committee] into a Council with decision-making, rather than merely consultative, powers, is particularly important. This is not a new idea. This transformation, pursuant to Article XII, Section 1 of the Fund's Articles of Agreement, could give it a new start. This approach was envisaged under the Jamaica accords, but deferred at the time because of the experimental nature of the Interim Committee. But given the daunting changes that have occurred recently in the world economy, and the fact that the IMF has achieved truly universal status with the accession of the transition countries, perhaps the time has come to consider it. Without greatly altering the operation of the institution and the pivotal role of its Executive Board, such a transformation would give the IMF renewed and very valuable legitimacy for the increasingly difficult tasks it is called upon to perform.
http://www.imf.org./external/np/speeches/1998/050898.HTM

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:26
chas (Steve in TO your 21:33) ID#147201:
Lots of work here. Where did you get the info? You might be interested in William Ridgeway, THE ORIGIN OF METALLIC CURRENCY AND WEIGHT STANDARDS. Difficult to find, but well worth it. I assume you were talking about silver here. Do you have comparable details on a small gold coin? TIA

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:23
old gold__A (Dollars) ID#241261:
Question: Who can print more dollars than you can spend? Question: Who can spend more dollars than you can print?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:22
SDRer__A (Midwifing a currency--) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Mantra:
``Who is going to buy gold as a safe haven?

The Mantra's Why-- Date: Sat Jul 18 1998 11:22
To the earliest planners, the gold conundrum presented an ironic,
and central, planning contretemps: gold, the stabilizer, their rudder,
had to be discredited for any new currency to successfully be brought
forward. Were gold to retain its historical safe-haven role, assets
would flee fiat and flock to gold; were this allowed to happen, the new
currency would be abandoned on the launch-dock, never to be set
afloat. So, step one, central to all, was to publicly discredit gold as
a monetary asset, thus protecting all fiats but, more specifically,
allowing the new currency to be introduced.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:21
6pak (The Power's That Be(USofA Banks)+IMF @ Russia & USofA Worker's/Citizen's/Taxpayers pay the frieght) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
August 27, 1998

Republic New York sounds first warning on Russia losses

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- In the first public indication of the effect of Russia's economic troubles on American banks, Republic New York Corp. said Thursday that losses from investments in Russia would wipe out its third-quarter profits.

Republic, the 18th-largest U.S. bank holding company in terms of assets, slashed the value of its Russian debt to 15 cents on the dollar, following an identical action earlier this week by the Russian government on its own bonds.


Republic didn't say how much debt it has outstanding in Russia, although banking analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods estimate it at about $300 million US. That is a significant sum for a bank with $55 billion US in assets.

Other big U.S. banks have much bigger portfolios in Russia, but they represent a smaller portion of their overall holdings, so are less likely to affect profits, said Keefe, Bruyette analyst David Berry. Russia is not expected to hit nearly as hard as the Asian crisis has since last fall.

A spokesman for J.P. Morgan said the bank would have no announcement Thursday and noted that the bank is not required to make a public disclosure unless the amount affected is more than .75 per cent of total assets.

Bankers Trust Corp. had $1.1 billion, or 0.73 per cent of total assets outstanding in Russia, as of Dec. 31. Bankers Trust spokesman Doug Kidd also declined to make a statement on third-quarter performance.

Citicorp said it had $420 million in outstanding loans to Russia as of June 30.

Chase Manhattan Corp. has disclosed in regulatory filings that as of June 30, its total exposure to Russia is about $500 million.

BankAmerica Corp., another big player in world markets, had $412 million outstanding to Russia at the end of the second quarter.

http://www.freecartoons.com/BizTicker/CANOE-wire.Russia-US-Banks.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:21
ptwoskool__A (Maybe gold and other pm's are not and will not be safe) ID#227305:
investments.Maybe they won't go up when they should.Maybe the financial melt-down much of the world is experiencing will pass the U.S. by, mostly.Maybe, there is no safe haven.Maybe,when those who hate us scheme on our dollar and not our embassies ,gold will rise.Whether you're winning or losing , now, you've bought a ticket. If you're invested you own a ticket.Enjoy the game.Methinks they scheme as I write.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:19
Duke__A (Bonnie Up-Date) ID#267255:
-
She's gone, we made it thru fine, and now maybe some sunshine. Max winds hit 108 here last night ( this am ) about 2. Thought the roof was coming off! As it turned out, we've had a lot worse storms, in terms of high winds. The problem with this one was that she lingered too long. Don't know what she liked about NC, but she sure stayed her time here. As soon as the eye caught a piece of tera furma, she stopped dead in her tracks, and only continued her movement at 5-6 mph some hours later. All in all it wasn't that bad. Now we contend with all this water. About 11 so far and more coming down. It's got no where to go. Storm surge and tides were high as well, but that will correct itself as soon as the wind either shifts or diminishes.

A couple of observations for you to file away for future ( 2000 ) use:
1. It only took 1 ( one ) day to completely wipe out the shelves of all of the grocery stores around here. I asked a couple of the store managers why they got caught so short when they had a weeks notice. The predominant answer essentially related to just in time inventory systems that were very difficult to manually by-pass. Apparently when some could by-pass such systems, vendor shipping became an impossibility. What will happen when literally thousands of merchants find themselves in similar circumstances?
2. Gas rationing began just prior to the storm, most places limited to purchase of 10 gallons. I noticed a lot of hoarding going on, not much price gouging, but that seemed to me to be the next logical step in a process that might take a few weeks or months to unravel.
3. The most startling of all to me was that a predomanance of ATM's apparently ran out of cash. Late Tues afternoon, 3 of 5 banks I drove by had long lines. Tues evening those ATM's were empty. I will need to follow up tomorrow to find out why.
4. Tips for the generator: a ) make sure you have spare parts such as spark plugs, etc. When they are not used very often, they will fail much more quickly. b ) make sure that your electric service cords match the generators output. unless you have a strong generator, I wouldn't suggest much over a 50' line, match the lines recommended capacity to the output.

With any kind of prolonged disturbance in the general supply lines which we all have become comfortable with ( i.e. Y2K ) , based on this little experience, I STRONGLY suggest that you prepare, NOW.

Thanks to all of you who supported us through this mess. Your thoughts were warmly received, and your well wishes helped keep our candles of hope lit. I appreciate it very much. As 1 of your famous is fond of repeating, a gulp and a puff to you all.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:19
cherokee (@...time.for.gold.to.begin.to.shine.....chaos.and.flux...they's-amux-us-all.....) ID#288229:

this may be mis-construed as a buying opportunity......
the dippity-do-for-lunch-bunch will have a field
day tomorrow...

the S&P.....

http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/ts_cha51.gif

the s&p the leaders up are the leaders down.....wheeeeeeeee
the paper tiger is freeeeeeee...

CHOP-ASAKI.....to all...and chop-asaki to the others..you know who are...

cherokee.!;..waiting.for.saudia.arabia.to.explode....very.soon....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:18
old gold__A (studio) ID#241261:
It sounds like a good name for a Hurricane except for all those Men figures on front.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:14
skinny (Steve in TO) ID#28994:
Just curious........would a gold mine be allowed to sell direct to the public.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:13
JTF (Dollar dumping) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
D.A. Thanks for giving us your input. AG must be working overtime to absorb all the dollars coming our way. Any comments about the plummeting Cry0? I know this is a futures index, so it is strongly affected by sentiment. Think AG will be forced to inflate about the time CRY0 bottoms? I think he was hoping the markets would do his work for him, but all this 'flight to safety' got in the way.

Once the financial crises around the world fade a bit, there will be less frightened dollar buying.

By the way, do you have any clear conceptual way to separate US dollar buying due to fears of currency devaluation, from US dollar reserve selling to prop up the currency in question? I find this confusing, since I find it hard to decide which is the dominant factor in the relevant financially troubled market.

Of course, once everyone decides that some other currency is more attractive than the US dollar, then all of this will be a moot point, because all activity will be to sell dollars.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:13
old gold__A (welfare) ID#241261:
If we dont trust Russia and China, who will be left? Going the way of the Welfare State might fare better than a Commie State. Ask the State Dept.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:12
STUDIO.R (@paper and ink......hmmm (old gold).........) ID#119358:
How much longer will it be before a russia, an islamic, a pink china, an indo-china sets their devious, rebellious mind to printing a beautifully crafted $100. greenback? Greenbacks Por Todo El Mundo! CheapO. Would the real greenback please stand up!


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:10
Dutchman (Reify) ID#268260:
You may be right; however, I also think there exists a strong possibility of a V reversal spike where gold shoot up $5 to $10 and the XAU gains 5 points or so. I have no evidence to prove this. Rather, I would say my opinion is predicated up the series of sharp drops we have experienced and the portent that a mass of people will suddenly discover that gold is truly the last resort currency. When and if this happens, gold could rally to $325 or more in a matter of days ( IMHO ) .

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:09
Envy (Japan) ID#219363:
Hasn't see the worst of it yet, there's one more possible nail in her coffin - the loss of her biggest customer. It's big fun to have 5 cent lemonade when the kid next to you has 10 cent lemonade, that is, unless it starts raining and everyone goes home.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:09
John B__A (RJ) ID#77134:
Very insightful:
Crazy folks are like those on PCP
They feel no pain
In their escape
From the pain inside

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:07
Tantalus__A (Now it's Russia - small in economics, but large in the geopolitical scheme) ID#374204:
but make way now for Japan, Venezuela, Mexico, Hungary. Canada ( Hope not )

Why should you honor your debts if you don't have to?

LOOKOUTS BELOW!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:03
robnoel__A (Strad Master....I hope to have him on my show soon...I'll send you the tape...what is it with you ) ID#411112:
guys...I love it... music and politics

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:03
Steve in TO__A (Mo in TO) ID#209265:
Where did you go to try to buy your gold? I thought the Bank of Nova Scotia is the only one that will really sell you physical bullion, and you have to pay for it and then arrange to pick it up later or have it delivered at exhorbiatant fees.

I think BNS is really geared toward supplying commercial buyers.

Seems a dealer is a much better place to get gold.

Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:02
JTF (Oldman) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: Thanks for posting! I like the way he talks -- honest. Oldman is worried about Europe, not just Japan and Russia. His assessment is that if our US markets don't come around soon -- weeks -- the whole worldwide equity/economic package may implode a la 1929. I'm inclined to agree with him. So -- what is it? Do the US markets get caught in the suction, or not? Personally, I would rather have a bear if possible, with slow wakeup to reality -- not an implosion. But we will get what we get, not what we want.

AG ( and RR ) are now all we have keeping us from fiat currency oblivion. Whatever you may think of them, they know what they are doing. And we are lucky indeed we have that, given what is happening to the rest of our government -- in particular our executive.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 22:01
RJ (..... D.A. .....) ID#411259:

The problem is
Nobody knows how big the pile is
Even those, I suspect,
Who are in charge of the pile

I think your assessment is a good one.

Yes

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:58
RJ (..... To paraphrase Orwell .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

To be insane
Is to be
A minority
Of one.....


Sad to say Fumpy is of
A fractional variety
The whole of his parts
Couldn't fill a hole
Only self righteous ego
Will fill those empty spaces
But even that ugly id
Will be driven over the edge
By his own boredom
Of his own self

So maybe perhaps even
Several 1/8 Fumpy's
Would create a sum
Such as that minority of one

Then we can Tase him
And get that straitjacket on
Don’t worry about bruises
Crazy folks are like those on PCP
They feel no pain
In their escape
From the pain inside

Sigh

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:57
Steve in TO__A (Watch Malaysia) ID#209265:
The gov't of Malaysia was actually stupid enough to announce that they were intending to inflate. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot! Anyhow, it'll be interesting to see whether they actually prove to be capable of injecting liquidity into their banking system.

If they can't do it- i.e. if banks, businesses and consumers turn down the newly-available credit, that's a sign that deflation is out-of-control in the region.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:57
old gold__A (skinny-Reflation) ID#241261:
I heard it on CNBC today.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:57
HOOSIER (Thank you Mr. Puetz for your comments! ) ID#401183:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:56
D.A. (money.flying.all.over.the.place) ID#7568:
Copyright © 1998 D.A./Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All:

Just checked on the Fed's weekly statistical releases. Last week foreign central banks had the audacity to unload nearly 14 billion dollars worth of US treasuries. Could this be why the Yen is showing such signs of life. Perhaps our friends across the Pacific have decided they are no longer in need of our obligations. I wish them the best of luck as we are large holders of the uncarry trade.

The hour is growing quite late for the US dollar. The major competitors of the dollar, the Yen and Euro ( DM ) have already experienced the hell associated with satelite country debacles. Southeast Asia has already happened, Russia has already happened, the next piece of the puzzle is likely to be in Mexico, South America or Canada. The US banking system is about to experience that unhappy feeling that comes about when your creditors go belly up. A siezure in the banking system will awaken Al if nothing else will. The presses will roll and the dollar will go down.

Here's tonights quiz. What has been the strongest currency in the world over the last month?

Sig:

If you're out there send me your snail mail address DAronstein@worldnet.att.net

RJ:

If the current situation in Russia has not caused massive flows of Platinum to leave said country, is it possible that anything will?
Could the events of the last few days be proof that the bottom of the pile has been reached? Thanks.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:55
skinny (Old Gold) ID#28994:
I never heard of that word ( reflation ) either, they must mean outflation.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:54
Mo in To (REALLY SCARRRY STUFF) ID#347205:
To all,
A word from a Canader. Rumours on the street have it that The Fed ( BIG AL et al ) is poised to help the flagging canadian currency. Now that's a scarrrry thought. On the lighter ( much lighter side ) , I wonder if Livent re-opened trading today? They always had such wonderful timing.
MofromTo

ps. the news from the East is dismal...and another thought, remember last winter when gold hit $278/oz, I went to my trusty local bank and joined lineups of buyers, but there was NO GOLD THERE. HMMMMMMMMMM

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:53
old gold__A (tantalus-monica) ID#241261:
when monica genuflects, again, she will be blowing in the wind.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:51
Steve in TO__A (Intervention) ID#209265:
Doubt that the Treasury Dept. will intervene in the Yen very soon. The reason for their previous intervention was to stop the Yen from crossing the line ( 150¥/US$ ) at which the Chinese have threatened to devalue.

With the Yen at 141/$ and the prospect of remaining stable or even rising in value likely for the near future, I doubt that we'll see any intervention soon.

Watch for PPT activities in the US equity markets, though, if plunging overseas markets start to spook the US markets.

Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:50
Tantalus__A (old gold - Reflation) ID#374204:
When Monica genuflects, again, to the executive branch.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:43
old gold__A (Reflation) ID#241261:
now ive heard everything. They try to dumbfound us with Reflation . Who knows what Reflation is?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:41
Steve in TO__A (Nikkei sank below 14,000 today!) ID#209265:
http://cnnfn.com/markets/wires/9808/27/asiaopen_wg/

This may actually help the yen in the short term, since some financial institutions will have to sell US investments to raise cash. Chaos could start to break out though- this was a key market turning point.

Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:40
Reify (DUTCHMAN & OTHERS) ID#413109:
Agree that we will turn up in gold and PMs soon, however am not expecting
any spike up as past patterns of tops and bottoms have shown it may take
a month or two to pound out a bottoming pattern before a large and
sustained move takes place. As the constant optomist, and it hurts right
about now, still think we're near a bottom, and each one must do his
or her own thinking, when it comes to putting money on the line.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:40
RJ (..... Tuneless Wonder .....) ID#411259:

Fumpy’s opines are as a saxophone
On which the fingerings spell out
S-T-A-G-F-L-A-T-I-O-N.
Sad thing is
It is the only tune he knows
He just holds downs all the keys….. and blows.

Yep

He blows

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:38
old gold__A (Greenbacks) ID#241261:
Gold is Gold. It neve wears and tears much. Its shelf life is long. Its used somewhat but very dependable and Im sure a few other things you can think of. Contrast, a U.S. Dollar is paper with ink. How many would it tke to really weigh the SAME Hopefully inflation wont get that high,and we can still enjoy the luxury and luxury of spending Dollars with our new found Gold prices.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:38
Shadowfax__A (Net chatter) ID#290281:
Copyright © 1998 Shadowfax__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To: Bosco ( 5930 )
From: Joseph Beltran Thursday, Aug 27 1998 8:31AM ET
Reply # of 5969

Bosco,

Hashimoto promised Clinton ( and Rubin ) to act forthwith if the U.S. intervened with Japan in support of the yen....That promise, along with other promises by the japanese will go unfullfilled ( for now ) ...Why should that surprise us? The japanese have been promising reforms and changes for as long as I can remember and their modus operandi has been to initially proffer one excuse after another for not fullfilling those promises and waiting until their backs were literally against the wall ( read: imminent threat of a trade war ) before they acted. Rubin KNOWS this and that is why he was against the U.S. intervening to support the yen...He KNEW that japan would not come through...It's deja vu all over again.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:37
sharefin (Was it fed intervention?) ID#284255:
-
Turning off Bart's server for a few hours.

Perhaps they don't like the comments about their intervention.
Being aired like dirty laundry for all to see.

Avid chatter:
----------------
oleman . . You guys let me down. I HAD to leave at 3 pm. Covered my shorts and left a
sell stop in for 2 measly contracts at 1049. So that's all i got now .....2
measly shorts. All those beautiful big Dow stocks I was short. But the shape
of the chart fooled me. I counted the rally into 3 as the third swing high,
and now mr mkt says it was only the second. I made an avertage of over 5
bucks a share on the shorts, and probably left 3 or 4 times that much on the
table. Its the ultimate in foolishness not to have a short position in a
bear market. O, well 2 spoos IS sort of a position. But 1000 shares each of
5 stocks is much better. Jesse Livermore said not even Rockefeller can
afford to lose his POSITION. He was right.

oleman . . It was my best day of the year, but I feel like I been HAD. I sat here and
told all the cocky bulls we were in a bear market, then let an appointment
that took me away an hour before the close get me out of my POSITION. Never
again. Dear Lord, give me samurai's rally to get that position on again and
I'll pay a tithe on it. So help me!!!

oleman . . Went in short 1000 JPM, made over 7 handles on it, but it closed down
THIRTEEN. Missed opportunity hurts when you KNOW its there. Temple is gonna
slap me up side the haid till my ears ring. I deserve it!!!!!!

oleman . I didnt do that bad. My POSITION was SHORT. IK bought the spoos for 14
handles in 15 minutes. I just didnt want to leave all those shorts on with a
THIRD swing high looking at me, and about 30k profit in the bag. Cost me a
hundred or more.

frog . . globex loooking really bad ...do you think there's a possibility this
thing will just keep going down down without ever a retrace?

oleman . You wont be the only bull much longer ( time wise ) The bear market
will be overin a few weeks. A rally of sufficient power to trade like a bull
should hit next week. I wxpect most perma bulls will know we've had a bear
about the time it ends. Same as the permabears in the recent bull. Sont know
how low price will go before a good rally, but its close in time. over
1000stocks making new ONE YEAR LOWS may be something that occurs in the
context of a BULL market where you come from, but to me its been a bear
since before I realized it was and announced it here over 100 handles above
here. Call it what you will, but the $$ have been made on the short side for
the last few weeks. I know its a waste of time to say this to you, because
anyone who can look at -350 Dow, -52 Spoos, and 1009 new lows and say
Bull, is beyond convincing. So I wont try again.

dgoto . . My whole reasoning behind being bullish is I don't believe in doom
scenarios.. Never seen one yet that happened.. I don't expect to see one
here.

oleman . I said you were right on the silber thing. In fact, i was long silver
when the sage of omaha came forth. I reversed on the spot. I repeat, when
a Buffet or a Soros ( Druckenmiller ) says BUY, its 'cause he wants to sell
it to you. To be otherwise would mean they are fools, and fools dont getrich
and STAY rich.

dirgo . . It doesn't look like Japan is going to modify our trend tonight.

dgoto . what is happening in Japan is the BEST thing that can happen.. They
are all sleeping over there. They have no idea what is happening.. I love
Japan but enough is enough. Bring that puppy down HARD..1000 points today.

dgoto . . When it happens, I will be a buyer as oleman says BIG TIME..

dgoto . . The people aren't worried,m they have maybe 5-10 years worth of cash assets
in their garden and under their tatmi mats.. I am not joking.. The Chinese
and Koreans are the same.. The difference was the Japanese economy was so
huge, that it could slide for 8 years and almost put everyone to sleep in
the process. Now that is a BEAR market.. What is happening here is far
different. These wild rides ain't going to kill this Bull. It is just going
to make it more interesting

oleman . . Doom? Asia is in a depression, Europe is on the brink. Russia is a shambles.
Commodities, in real$$, are approaching lows for modern times, the yield
curve is inverted in the only country ( US ) that is still breathing, the bond
is at all-time low yields, the stock market just lost ove r4% in a day, and
you guys think its just a bump in the road to boomer El Dorado? We are on
the brink of a crisis which will change the industrialized world to a degree
not seen since the 1930's, if we are not lucky enough for my prediction of a
short, sharp bear market to come true. Said optimistic prediction was more
the child of the wish on my part than a solid forecast. Its what I want.
Odds are less than 50/50 that I'll get what I want. If I dont, and this
market loses another 30-50%----the broad market is already down over
25%----, doom is an apt description of what this generation faces. At least
from a financial and political standpoint.

dgoto . maybe I am a just a little wiser than my age. in today's lingo been
there seen that, no big deal..

oleman . I concede. GThere will never be a bear market again. If what we're in
now is not a bear market, there will never be another. Tell it to the gal
across the lake, who's lost a quarter of her wealth since spring.

oleman . US$ weakening in anticipation of rate cut here, which will come as
soon as someone nudges our somnolent FED chairman into consciousness.: )

oleman . After the longest DOWN bar of the year, a couple handles of bounce is
definitely in order.

skye5323 . A. Gary Schilling ( sp? ) on NPR's Marketplace tonight. Wrote new book
Deflation. Said there are 14 indicators of deflation ( I don't know them )
and the only one not met yet is meltdown of U.S. equity markets and
Americans stop investing and spending and start to actually save, as the
U.S. consumes 20% of world's output. He also said the bond market will go to
3% in the somewhat near future.

oleman . . wonder if Rubin sold any of his puts today?



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:35
Envy (Tokyo Stocks Drop in Early Trading) ID#219363:
TOKYO ( AP ) -- Tokyo stocks plunged in early trading Friday and the U.S. dollar tumbled against the yen following steep declines overnight on Wall Street and renewed political and economic turmoil in Russia. The Nikkei Stock Average dropped below the 14,000-point level for the first time in 12 years. The average dove 591.56 points, or 4.10 percent, to 13,822.23 in the first 30 minutes of trading. On Thursday, the average fell 452.24 points, or 3.04 percent.

http://www.newsday.com/ap/rnmpfn08.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:34
Strad Master (THANKS) ID#250297:
ROBNOEL: I don't get to log on as much as I'd like but just did and found your URL to the Balint Vazsonyi page. Wow! I've gotta meet this guy! A great concert pianist, a clear thinker and Hungarian, to boot! We can play a Beethoven Sonata together and then talk politics in Hungarian. Thanks for the site.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:33
Steve in TO__A (Allen - Concerning your 8:58 post) ID#209265:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The denarius did weigh approximately 2.9 grams, with small variations. You're right in your denarius calculation- I deleted a zero from the Troy oz. result, which misled me to value the denarius by 10x too much.

It was worth about 46 cents, as I put in my first post. I should never have changed it, based on my weight typo!

The denarius was a small coin- just a little bit bigger than a modern US dime. You can get them for very good prices at numismatic stores ( about $20 for a decent one, seems like a great price to pay for a little bit of ancient history : )

I suppose an interesting comparison would be the current value of pre-1965 silver dimes.

Anyhow, thank you for the info on wages at the turn of the century. A dollar an hour was a real slave wage even then, I suspect. Looking at Henry Ford's $1/hr wage, that seems more on a par with modern wages. Prices have risen approximately 20X from 1910, so Ford's wage would correspond to approximately $20/hr today. Does anyone know what autoworkers make per hour nowadays?

- Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:32
Dutchman (BG) ID#215235:
Good for you! What a great buy you made! NEM may go a bit lower in the short term, but it will pay you vast dividends within a year. At $300/oz, NEM should probably fetch in the neighborhood of $20/share. Get it to $400/oz and you'll be a rich man who can pat himself on the back. At these prices, we are experiencing a fire sale on all gold stocks. Buy more. Load up. Come midSeptember to early October, gold will begin a convincing rally that will see funds and individuals piling on. Gitty Up Gold!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:32
EB (Edgar-Allen-Poe(t)-Boy) ID#230216:
Charts have NEVER lied to me.......eventually....................they always tell you............sometimes on Monday Morning........ ( HAR thingy )

( that was reference to hindsight and watching football ( US ) on a Sunday ) .............uh huh.

away......to keep my hind in sight......... ( and my johnson ) ...

EB

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:31
RJ (..... The more things change... the more they stay the same .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Yep….. Same wizened weenie he always was only he is now spouting song lyrics instead of Hallmark cards. He did say that , RJ, LGB, and other notable K-1'ers think I am a complete psychotic, so he apparently is not entirely out of touch with reality. It must be a damp and scary place inside that forlorn and lonely skull. Not a place to visit, not without some Holy water, wooden stakes, garlic, and a good straitjacket.

Oh yeah, and Tasers to keep him writhing on the floor while we shove his atrophied arms in the strait jacket. Got to keep your distance, and don’t let any of that rabid foam spatter about, it could be infectious.

We need no Fumpy spawn.

No indeedy

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:30
kapex (Just got back. Asia doesn't look too good.) ID#218248:
.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:30
Gollum (So WHO are these professionals on the LBMA) ID#43349:
``It was long liquidation by professionals which took out stops below $280. It gapped down $2.50 on virtually no volume,'' said one London dealer.

``These low levels are attracting a good deal of physical buying but the paper selling by funds is having a greater effect,'' he said.

From Gollum's high vantage point it appeared that SOMEONE was using massive paper sales to force PM prices down while buying the physical.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:23
TYoung (EB...:)...:)) ID#317193:
Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:23
Donald (Japanese official urges Japanese investors to dump their dollar holdings.) ID#26793:
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980827/V000675-082798-idx.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:22
Gollum (Gather round children....) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just before Kitco got blown off the air and ol' Gollum got blown out of the air, he noticed some strange goings on down on the ground. Notice particularly two comments:

``It was long liquidation by professionals which took out stops below $280. It gapped down $2.50 on virtually no volume,'' said one London dealer.

Full story
Professionals return bruised gold to 18-1/2-yr low
11:40 a.m. Aug 27, 1998 Eastern
LONDON, Aug 27 ( Reuters ) - Gold matched the 18-1/2-year lows of last January on Thursday in Europe as professional sales out of New York added to earlier losses caused by Australian producer sales, dealers said.

London gold fixed at $278.50 a troy ounce in the afternoon, down on the morning's $280.90 and matching January 12's 18-1/2-year low, a fixing level last seen on June 29, 1979.

Gold had steadied mid way through European trade ahead of New York's opening, holding above $280.00 until U.S. dealers opened for business, when it dropped a further $2.00 to be last at $278.40/$278.90.

``It was long liquidation by professionals which took out stops below $280. It gapped down $2.50 on virtually no volume,'' said one London dealer.

The metal chopped around $278.00 as the end of European trade approached, moving in a new range capped by resistance at $280.00 and support underneath at $276.50/$277.00, dealers said.

``If we take out $276.50, you have got to be prepared for a move to $271.00,'' said one dealer.

Russia's financial crisis and its knock-on effects on world stock markets, commodities and the currencies of commodity-dependent economies might have stalled gold's fall a little, one dealer said.

``Gold's down but considering what's happened to everything else - the rouble, the Canadian dollar, the Aussie dollar and the stock markets - it's not been too bad,'' he said, adding that the bulk of gold's fall was due to producer sales.

That being said, the dealer did not foresee any sustained buying of gold as a store of value.

``Who is going to buy gold as a safe haven? The people whose currencies are weak do not have any money and the ones whose currencies are strong do not need to go out and buy gold,'' he said, adding that investment funds were still short on gold.

Spot gold was last at $277.70/$278.20 versus New York's previous close of $282.00/$282.50.

Silver managed to stay out of harm's way through much of European trade only to succumb as it drew to a close, when it dropped to $4.89/$4.92, six cents below New York's previous close.

Platinum and palladium were dented along with gold with fears of increased sales by the beleaguered Russians and general gloominess towards commodities seen as the cause.

``I think they are much the same as the other commodities - everything seems to be down and platinum and palladium have come with them,'' one dealer said.

``These low levels are attracting a good deal of physical buying but the paper selling by funds is having a greater effect,'' he said.

From Gollum's high vantage point it appeared that SOMEONE was using massive paper sales to force PM prices down while buying the physical.

``These low levels are attracting a good deal of physical buying but the paper selling by funds is having a greater effect,'' he said.

Platinum was lower at $352.00/$354.00, $8.00 down on New York's previous close, while palladium was at $270.00/$280.00. down $7.40.

( ( Patrick Chalmers, London Newsroom +44 171 542 8057. london.commodities.desk+reuters.com ) )


Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication and redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:19
Skip (@amateur ) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Perhaps I can answer your concerns by telling a story.

Let's suppose Company XYZ had $10,000 in its bank account, but had a payroll of $50,000 to meet...so it wrote checks for the entire amount. Now let's suppose that they told their employees that they could use their paychecks to buy goods at the company store, and the company store purchased $50,000 worth of goods to sell at said store...and paid for the goods by writing another $50,000 worth of NSF checks, hoping that they could persuade all who had the NSF checks to use them among each other for trade rather than cashing them. In a sense, that's what our government has done by issuing currency. It works as long as said currency doesn't find its way home.

A gold standard keeps the government honest; but a paper currency without any gold backing allows that country or government to issue all the paper that it wishes without any backing, simply based on the trust of its citizens. The result is normally INflation, not deflation...but the world is BUYING dollars rather than selling dollars, thus causing the dollar to soar in relation to other currencites, and causing a temporary DEflation rather than an inflation. It is temporarily good for the USA, but in the long run, there will be massive inflation when all those dollars come home to roost. At that time, the value of gold will SKYROCKET in terms of dollar value.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:19
EB (Rub your nose in it?) ID#230216:
-
never. nope. not likely. don't think so. wouldn't, shouldn't, couldn't.

Quite the contary my good buddy. 'Twas ALL compliment.... ( ceptin' for that gold bottom ) . You are STILL...... daman! Have we locked in price on the kooookooooobaras? ( smile )

I imagine you even have a seat reserved on Cherokasi's Smoke Mobile.....should you decide you want a ride..... ( more big grins ) ...seeing forward looking backward to gain momentum into the quantum.....flux and chaos.....uhuh. You can even be holder of flame for a while................but don't Bogart.

now........Tom, I is light tonight.........should you lighten as well ;- )

and now I is gone......

AWAY$$$.....to find cheeze&bloopers for my cocktail crackers

EB


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:18
STUDIO.R (@EB.O..........plop!) ID#119358:
My friendO, this favourite turd'o'mine must not be flushed so lightly, not here....not now...not ever...not, not, not. and GoldO does not Smell...and it does not float like a poorly formed turd....for this GoldO is not a turd at all. no. Now, you must go and think more of this matter of turds...and you must recant what turds sound like, too.

rightyO and indeedyO...now don't touch that handle........splash.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:17
BG__A (Dutchman. You there?) ID#261304:

I got me some NEM today @ 14.00 & closed at 14 3/4..what would you guess this stock worth if gold was to get up to 300.00

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:17
RJ (..... Fumpy is Back? .....) ID#411259:

The man has no shame
The man has no brain
The man has proven
That he is insane

OK

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:15
RJ (..... D.A. .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

This whole damnable ruble thingie has put another wrench in my platinum strategy. I admit to holding platinum for which more dollars were paid then the ozers are currently worth, but the prices are a passing fancy, a trite fad of low priced platinum that will depart this scene as quickly as, it appears, bloops did.

I can think of no reason to not buy platinum here, with the expectation of scale down buying if it drops further. Forget the stops here, stay with the position and buy more.

Platinum has not dropped below $329 since catalytic converters were first mandated by law. Besides also even, this Russian quagmire cannot but slow things down there. Their problems lie in production, not distribution as they would have us believe. I believe their production capability is crippled. Don’t count on SA to bail out the world; their platinum mines are at max production. Only new holes and more equipment would increase their production. Only higher prices would warrant this.

I think it is a good bet, but wait for the open tomorrow. If you see a spike down to 348 and then a bounce, I would buy on the way up, maybe about an hour into the trading day.

Ok Indeedy Right O so uh huh

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:12
crazytimes (Farfel) ID#342376:
Bad Boy Farfel has some interesting posts tonight on Kitco 2. The ultimate irony is if he proves to be right about Stagflation in the US. I do agree with him about Greenspan NOT lowering rates.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:08
HighRise (Japan) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
9:10PM
13921.78
-492.01
-3.41%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:07
tricky (Is Hong Kong Trading tonight?) ID#304282:
What is fair value for the S&P's? currently at 1032.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:06
IDT (APH) ID#228128:
I'm still short. Do you see any kind of correction before the labor day weekend?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:05
Donald (Canada is the newest victim of the Russian crisis) ID#26793:
http://nt.excite.com/news/r/980827/18/news-markets

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:03
sharefin (Oldman - avid chatter) ID#284255:
-
oleman . . during the next rally, you're gonna have to work on your timing. You're too early. As we work our way down, there'll be times when it'll take the market as much as a day or day and a half to get you in the money if you keep pulling the trigger so fast.: ) : )

oleman . DB is down about 5% on the DAX as we speak, and I'm short JPM in SIZE.

oleman . I shorted that spike. It was reallyh accidental, I picked out 5 big liquid issues to short, and jpm was one of them. I put orders in a few bucks above the mkt to short them Got short jpm ar 123 on the day it spiked all the way to 135 on the plant. That rumor on JPM was the equivalent of Ol' Stan's hyping of the market as a whole this week. Stan and George are probably having a champagne breakfast as we speak.: )

oleman . . This bear tradin IS dofferent. Gotta pitch the old indicators. While I'm fine-tuning a bear system, think I'll just short every rally on the first day that advancing issues outnumber new 52 week lows.: )

oleman . good stuff in the TImes. I figure the banks will be a good place to be short as we move further into the times when aint nuthin worth nuthin, 'cept cash. Ergo, there wont be nuthin worth enough to be used as collateral to borry cash against. This is Money and Banking, 202, at Oleman U. Unfortunately, M&B 101, which is a prerequisite, proves too much for most students.: )

oleman . . In 1973, Oil was under $4/barrel. In 1973 $$, oil is under $3/barrel and falling. In '73 $$, wheat is approaching the 50 cent/bushel level, and falling. The last time wheat was here, in real terms, most Western governments failed to survive in anything resembling their previous forms. Course this time it IS different. Big Bubba will see us thru. Meantime, I'm still short everything that's real and long the ephemeral US Bond. Whadda world!!!: )

orisk . . ole this geopolitical situation scares me more than any in my lifetime. this is the weather of coups

oleman . . somebody asked last nite when was th last time we had 2 big DOWN gaps in a row. The answer is, just last week. The second day was 8/21. Watch for a reversal. This area, Dirgo's Range, will probably drive a lot o fokes nuts before we leave it for good. Two consecutive big gaps in the same direction..........see Tuesday, 8/25............ b'fast time............

oleman . You just gotta relax and learn to love and trust Big Bubba. He feels our pain. He will make it right again. You MUST believe!!!!

oleman . Opportunities to procure cheap Canadian $$ will be abundant for the forseeable future.: ) )

oleman . . Buy BONDS. The whole world is showing its faith in Big Bubba, buy paying top $$ for his promise that they will be paid the kingly sum of 5% per annum interest, and that they will surely receive their principal back sometime during Chelsea's term. A bargoon, if there ever was one.: ) )

oleman . . Seriously, the proper way to trade it, as sam and dirgo have said, is to buy the bottom of DR and sell the top, until mr mkt shows his hand. Gone. BBAC.

oleman . 2,3,and 5 yr treasuries now yielding less than the FF rate. If there ARE any objective historians around 50 yrs from now, Alan Greenspan will be THE villian of the last half of the 20th century. The brain-dead FED chief who slumbered while the market inverted his yield curve.

oleman . . Yup, stuff selling at depression levels in real $$ and the curve inverts. No problemo, say the Klinton Bulls. Financial disaster dead ahead says this dumb ol hillbilly. Now who you gonna believe?: )

oleman . I truly dread the consequences of what is about to happen. But I always did want to see it actually happen, as an academic exercise. I always wondered if smart people, financially savvy people, would watch it happen and just absolutely refuse to believe it. Yup....back moc. good luck.

oleman . If AG soesnt wake up and do it quick, he might as well stay asleep. A week from now it wont matter. This is a melt-down, sans an immediate rate cut. Course the cut will give you your big rally in a hurry. this is the denouement. Exciting!!!! Gone for sure now. bbmoc.

oleman . . Markets 101 syllabus: If Buffet says he's buying silver, he wants to sell you some. If Druckenmiller says he's buying stocks, he wants to sell you some. this course is a prerequisite for everything else in the catalog.: ) gone!!!!

oleman . . DJIA now NEGATIVE vis a vis 8/97.

oleman . . could be in for a little selloff here.: ) JPM down 7 bucks. Oleman short 1000 shares.: ) : ) : )

oleman . . not trading, dgo. Positioned short in JPM,AXP,MER,GE,TRV.

oleman . . mina: shoulkd hold 1000 today. 900 next week.

oleman . . Then we'll start the bear market.

oleman . I told you last wk that I was positioned short in 5 big stocks. And long the bond. Those aint trades. They're RETIREMENT!!!

oleman . . just bot spoos, gone.........

oleman . sorry, had a lot o business to do. covered half of mhy shorts, stayed long spoos about 15 min for 14 handles. You gotta buy the fear and sell the greed in this game, or get a regular day job.

oleman . I bee in em over a week. That's along term position for me. Still holdin half. If I couldnt react immediately to the market, I'd turn my money over to a broker.

oleman . . just scrolled back, and judging from the posts just prior to my 10:43, I assume there was a small amount of surprise when I abruptly announced I was buying spoos, no?

oleman . . I bot the first hesitation after it broke that 1048 low from g'bex last week. This thing bounces when it takes out strong support---usually.

oleman . . Boris shoulda kept his mouth shut about Slick's fireworks to the south of him last week. Same fokes who put Slick in put Boris in. They got a bigger investment in Slick, so Boris gotta go.

dgoto . anyone have a Gold /Silver price?

oleman . . dogto: Cheap!!!

oleman . . gonna get cheaper.

dgoto . . oleman.. I am looking for a more precise cheap, thank you lol!!!

oleman . . dogto: Just keep track of the bond. It'll tell you when you can buy Gold.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:03
chas (Squirrel your 19:41) ID#147201:
You have a point. At 10 grains each there are 48 coins per oz. The current estimate for mint setup is about $3500. This will be amortized over some volume . 10 ounces will make 480 coins. This is being worked down, but not completely setled. At todays POG, the coin should cost about $7 in some volume. Therefore what is needed is the setup $3500 + the 10 ounces , say $3000 which = $6500. Hope to have this setled in a few days. That would launch. Naturally, as more are needed so is more gold. Hope this helps, Charlie

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:02
Shek (Gold) ID#287279:
Buy gold on dips!!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:00
D.A. (platinum) ID#7568:
RJ:

Tell me some reasons why I shouldn't go out tomorrow and put on a long Platinum position. Having limited my precious metals losses to a half an ounce of gold over the last few weeks I feel compelled to do something irresponsible. Help.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:00
RJ (..... POLARBEAR .....) ID#411259:

Promey taught me this:

To avoid double spaced posts, always post from the edit screen, not the preview screen. If you want to preview your post, go back to the edit page before submitting the post.

This works. I was plagued by the double space bug for months, but now all spaces are exactly where I put them. This give me a great sense of power and control over my environment. This is a self delusion, tis true, but no more so than the charts never lie ( eventually ) ……….., yes?

( Hee Hee Heeeeeeeeeeee thingie )

OK

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 21:00
Gollum (@Mtn Bear (SE) ) ID#43349:
Thank you for the kind words, Mr. Bear sir. I am going back up there tomorrow and THIS time I WILL be taking a passenger with me. I am going to take along the wookie to man the rear guns. We are going to be fully armed and all our electronic counter measure gear in working order.

No more mister-nice-guy-friendly-skies-of-Gollum.

By the way, Yen's up.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:57
sharefin (Fed intervention fails.) ID#284255:
Five minutes before BC came on TV.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Fedbuy.jpg

Lossing his golden touch.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:57
Tantalus Rex (@Skip 19:13, fixing the POG and how it's done.) ID#295111:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus Rex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The POG is kept low mainly by 2 methods.
1. CB low lease rates.
2. Collusion among CB's

Rhody can explain 1.

2. Works this way.

CB_A sells X_Tons of Au to CB_B at $320oz.
CB_B sells same X_Tons of AU to CB_C at $320oz.
CB_C sells same X_Tons of AU to CB_D at $300oz.
CB_D sells same X_Tons of AU back to CB_A at $280oz
THE ABOVE IS A VICIOUS CIRCLE!

CB_A gives profit of $320-280 to CB_B who lost money on sale to CB_C
CB_B gives ( CB_A's profits less CB_B's loses ) to CB_C and so on

All the CB's have not lost anything EXCEPT that the POG is now at $280oz.

The low POG allows CB's to purchase Gold from small investors and mining companies. When they feel they've hoarded enough. POG will shoot up real quick.

THE KEY IS TO PLAY THEIR GAME!!!!!!
BUY GOLD NOW CAUSE IT'S LOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:52
Donald (Brazil on the brink of economic meltdown) ID#26793:
http://www.smh.com.au:80/news/9808/26/text/world12.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:50
RJ (..... POLARBEAR .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

5K rubles would not pry one ozer-o-gold from another Russian’s tightly clenched fingers. Nor would 10K, or 20K, because the ruble is worthless. It has zero meaning to the value of gold. The exact same way the $30K US gold would be meaningless. I hope the Russian thingie at least puts the fantasy out of some peoples heads that gold will make them rich. As Eldo, Squirrel, and some others have said, what gold will buy in times of economic crisis is pretty much what it will buy in calmer times. The key is…….. it will BUY, whereas worthless bills could not buy the wastebasket to throw them in.

Also Indeedy Righty O so: EB told me emphatically yesterday that gold would breech $280, which elicited a derisive snort from I, denying that this would come to pass. He was right, I was wrong. I figured I could bury this admission within a longer post and thus avoid the ribbing that will commence - or indeedy, has already commenced, yes?

He is a gracious victor, I will say that for him, at least until he rubs my nose in my nasty bottoms to keep me humble.

But I am the most humble person in the universe.

Yep

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:50
TYoung (EB...lighten up....starting to sound like F* on his BAD day...) ID#317193:
Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:48
small investor (ONE POINT DISCOUNT RATE CUT) ID#105143:
ALAN GREENSPAN MAY CUT THE DISCOUNT RATE BY ONE POINT. IF THE PEOPLE WANT MORE MONEY, THEY WILL GIVE THEM MORE MONEY! I WOULD NOT WANT TO BE SHORT WHEN IT HAPPENS. THIS IS POLITICAL. PUT YOUR SEAT BELTS ON. INVERTED YIELD CURVE LEAVES MUCH ROOM FOR A DROP.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:42
MoReGoLd (@Cheap Credit in US - But will Consumers Spend ?) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Global unrest may cut U.S. rates, but also wealth

By Lynn Adler

NEW YORK, Aug 27 ( Reuters ) - U.S. consumers may be able to pad their pocketbooks thanks to the upheaval spanning other markets around the globe.

Fervent demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by investors fleeing more chaotic markets will lower some key loan rates at home, economists said on Thursday.

But that trickle-down benefit for borrowers here may be tempered if U.S. stocks plunge further, they said.

Consumer interest rates ``are going to go down; the bond market has rallied sufficiently,'' said Asha Bangalore, an economist with Northern Trust Co. ``But even if lenders are willing to lend'' at reduced rates, ``the question is do you have a willing consumer?''

The stock market's unprecedented rally this decade has lured many new investors who have never endured a major setback. ``They may not have the stomach to withstand the losses,'' Bangalore cautioned.

What is known is that lenders historically are quicker to raise rates than to lower them, experts note.

The prime rate, a peg for auto and credit card loans, has not budged since the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in March 1997. Any loan rate cuts in the meantime resulted from ardent competition among lenders as consumer spending jumped.

Home loan rates are the most sensitive to Treasury interest rate slides. Bond interest rates, or yields, hit 21-year lows on Thursday as global investors sought the safe haven of U.S. government debt. Mortgage rates, already at the lowest levels in a generation, are seen heading lower soon.

A deeper, sustained U.S. bond rally, where prices go up and yields decline, will refuel the home buying and refinancing boom that has driven the economy in the past year, economists agree. But it will take much lower rates for several months before car loans or credit card fees are affected much, several said.

``The consumer most definitely will see benefits on the mortgage side before they do on the auto or other consumer loans,'' said David Lereah, Mortgage Bankers Association of America's chief economist.

Mortgage rates ``have not been this low for this long'' since federally chartered company Freddie Mac started tracking them weekly 27 years ago, Lereah said.

Average 30-year mortgage rates were unmoved by the bond rally this week, however, staying at 6.92 percent. Rates have stagnated just below 7.0 percent for 11 straight weeks.

``It is our expectation that mortgage rates will be even lower next week'' after the global leap into U.S. Treasuries, said Robert Van Order, chief economist with Freddie Mac, which buys mortgages and packages them into securities for investors.

Still, the stock market is a wild card.

If stocks erode much further -- and at one point on Thursday the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 300 points -- consumers will be less in the mood to buy new appliances, cars and vacations. They may charge less to their credit cards, even if loan rates edge down, economists say.

The ``wealth effect certainly has added to the appetite'' for housing, noted Lereah, ``and if you have a serious correction in the stock market, which we haven't had yet, that could seriously harm home buying.'' It would not, though, shut down refinancing. Homeowners ``would need the money,'' he added.

Barring a U.S. stock meltdown, the U.S. debt rally was seen spurring more mailings for credit card teaser-rate programs. Those offer low rates initially for transferring balances from another credit card but do not necessarily mean lower rates for the long haul.

A spokesman for Visa U.S.A., the largest consumer payment system, said the company does not comment on rates. Issuing banks set credit card rates on a case-by-case basis, he said.

The average auto finance company loan rate, meanwhile, has fallen to 6.2 percent this year from 7.125 percent last year, according to Federal Reserve data cited by economists.

``It would take a lot more move down ( in Treasury yields ) than we see now and a lot more sustained move to get a really big hit on the auto loan rates,'' said Suzanne Rizzo, domestic economist at MFR Inc.

Many retail rates are ``sticky,'' she added. ``They're more reluctant to move with market rates going down than going up.'' How far they fall, when they do, ``depends a lot on how strong demand is for loans and the kinds of competitive conditions.''

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:40
BUFFORD (Skip************I'm sorry but I left one out) ID#253246:
Copyright © 1998 BUFFORD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The biggest PM stock pushing *FAGINA OF THEM ALL: Jimmy ( I never met a PM stock that I didn't like ) Blanchard. He has had some great
picks over the last few years like Silver Standard, Corn-hole-copia,
and the one that went bankrupt the day after I received the flyer
St Gena-turd and don't forget that ten bagger INternational Pursuit excuse me I mean 10 cent bagger and the tanning from the Tan range

I'm going send blanchard a whole box maxi pads

The last time I complimented Kosares here he raised my News & Views rate to $95 and its been down here ever since without any of that supreme gold advice

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:32
EB (and I ain't no bull) ID#230216:
nope. uh uh. heck no.

Sell the rally. Gold is a turd in 98. If it smells like it, tastes like it, and keeps getting flushed...............well, it must be a turd. Uh Huh.....no offense buggers just reality.

back to lurky-jerky

away...to go home and sip something chilly

EBgoldbearlookingtogetfingersburntwhilstsellinghterallies

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:31
3-cubed (@JACK) ID#344239:
JACK, IN ANSWER TO YOUR 19:25 POST! WHY DO YOU THINK THE NEW CURRENCY WAS PRINTED IN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL ?.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:30
Tantalus Rex (@OLD GOLD) ID#295111:
Great post on Russia backing currency with Gold.

Too many countries outside the US have now been burned and this is very BULLISH for gold.

When the US dollar begins to lose momentum, I won't be surprised to see the POG jump 50$ daily.

It will happen, be patient guys.



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:29
Donald (Commodities plunge to 21 year lows.) ID#26793:
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980827/V000563-082798-idx.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:28
Michael (lost postings...) ID#293379:

I seem to be unable to recall the postings from 1100 to 1659 on my computer for today.... has anyone posted the full silver inventories ( the registered and eligible inventories ) for today? thank ye thank ye...


Dear WB: please complete your purchase of silver from the US COMEX inventories so I don't have to eat dirt... THANK you...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:27
BUFFORD (Skip ***Go out and beat up a PM newsletter writer tonight) ID#253246:
Copyright © 1998 BUFFORD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Get out there and find that wallstreet underground whore who predicted $10 silver by JUly

And don't forget that little slut Dines who promoted SSRIF and Stillwater
which got whacked hard today. LIke i'm going to go out and buy a platinum using car after losing $46k on pm stocks since April. I never
could understand shy the worlds largest platinum consumer ( Japs )
would be buying more platinum jewwlry while their country is in a
depression.

Skip; As part of my PM stock purchasing recovery every time I receive
a PM newsletter advertisement I plan on stuffing a maxi pad into their postage paid envelope and sending back to these whores because that is what they really want *******not our money

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:27
Envy (Overseas) ID#219363:
Japan 13800.30 -613.49 -4.26%
Australia 2474.4 -86.2 -3.37%
New Zealand 1831.08 -79.74 -4.17%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:27
MoReGoLd (@YYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA) ID#348286:
-613.49 ( -4.26% )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:25
RJ (..... Damned Ruble II .....) ID#411259:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

I cannot see how the Russian fiscal melee can do anything but propel metals ( all of them ) higher. Fear of dumping metal into the market may cause a short term drop but will soon be replaced by realization that they aren’t dumping anything - just like they sold nary a single ounce of palladium within $100 of the highest price in history. Metals inventories are a state secret in Russia so we can only discern what we may and make the best guess of how much they have. I tend to agree with Oris on this, what they had was sold or stolen years ago.

Also also also, as a major producer of oil, gold, and other important thingies, they have the means to pay the West, but not if they turn back market reforms. What company would invest in Russia with very real fears of entire industries being re-nationalized? I heard that Republic Bank ( the same Republic that is wont to whack about silver on a regular basis ) will take a $1.1 billion charge off in third quarter earnings. All of it was in Russia. The rest of the world doesn’t need too many Republics to fall on their collective heads before they realize that the half assed market reforms in Russia are little more than Band-Aids on an open jugular would which is squirting blood three feet into the air. Ah, but they are Red, yes?

If not for this damnable ruble crisis, my bottoms would have held, so I am pretty pissed at the Russians about this. I will take my revenge in my own way and it won’t be long before the whole of the Russian Politic will know how the Micturator and Fireplug felt when they messed with me.

I haven’t fed Rocco in a week and he has taken to eating rodents and cockroaches to survive. This is as it should be, I want him hungry and mean for the wet work ahead. I won’t let him out of the cage until he has consumed at least one of his own fingers.

For the rest of youse, this is a panic drop, I’m buying gold and platinum, and still wary of silver.

OK


PS Squirrel -

As soon as I hit the submit button, I realized it was negative waves rather than vibes. Once it is posted, it is carved into the fabric of spacetime. No taking it back.

Indeedy so
And Righty O
Ain’t no Mulligans
Hereabouts on Kitco

Uh Huh

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:25
IDT (more PEI -gold may be on the verge of a price collapse) ID#228128:
-
Is this the

Next Great Depression?


By Martin A. Armstrong
August 27, 1998
Copyright Princeton Economic Institute


------------------------------------------------------------------------




The collapse of Russia is having a profound impact upon the entire global financial markets from stocks, commodities and gold to currencies and bonds. Of all the great financial panics in history, this one looks like, sounds like and moves like none other than 1929 all over again. The similarities are not to be found in chart patterns, percentage movements or one-day greatest point declines in history. The similarities of what we are living through have more in common with the fundamentals behind the Great Depression than at any other point in time.

The truth behind the Great Depression is far from the greed of speculators that the socialists have characterized. Stocks DID NOT TRADE ON 10% MARGINS as Galbraith wrote in his book. ONLY new issues traded at such low margins. The NYSE big board was as it is today – 50% marginable. The OTC market, which the bank stocks traded in those days, was NOT marginable at all! The truth behind the damaging effects of the Great Depression were left out of the papers of socialists who wrote about that point in history in order to support their case for big government. ALL of Europe defaulted on its debt with the exception of Switzerland. Great Britain suspended payments on its debt for 6 months. Russia defaulted, China and Latin America. In total, nearly $90 billion in sovereign debt disappeared from the face of the financial world.

Another similarity is none other than the devastation taking place in the metals and commodities. While the goldbugs have been relishing in the demise of the Dow with a I told you so attitude they too have been hit with the XAU making new historic lows today under that of 1986 as well as gold closing on a new low for the past 20 years. In fact, commodities peaked in general during 1920 and began a 12-year bear market right into 1932 bottoming WITH stocks. No commodity, including silver, offered any hedge whatsoever against the Great Depression and the asset deflation that unfolded. The current collapse in the commodities ALONG with stocks on a side-by-side basis is a direct parallel with that of the events of the Great Depression.

The one striking difference today from that of the 1930s remains none other than the economy mix itself. During the Great Depression, 40% of the civil work force was employed within the commodity sector. Because commodities collapsed, jobs vanished causing unemployment to rise to 25% in the United States – hence the term Great Depression. Today, that same type of devastation is NOT taking place and is UNLIKELY to take place within the United States. The bulk of the economy in the US is a domestic oriented service economy. Services include everything from retail sales, lawyers, doctors, government, politicians and of course the financial industry. We have seen such a major depression taking place in Japan. However we also do NOT see unemployment in Japan anywhere close to 25% even after a 10-year decline. Therefore, we do NOT see any risk of a major depression that is identical to that of 1929.

Nonetheless, there is also no way that the low is in place for either commodities or the stock markets. Further declines are now likely with perhaps a 23% correction in the S&P 500 by the end of September in the US. The Nikkei is likely to drop to at least the 12,882 and a move below that area will raise the potential of a sharp decline still to 9,700 for 1999. Gold is at least a $50 decline in it perhaps even short-term while silver might yet collapse back to $4. Certainly, a penetration below $4.50 will then lead to the overall target of $2.75.

The greatest danger that we face is that the US government will fail to understand the seriousness of what is taking place globally. If this develops, we must be diligent in pointing out that the US should NOT attempt to put up trade sanctions in order to protect American jobs from the global deflationary atmosphere. That would have the same effect as Smoot-Halley during the Great Depression.

For now, foreign investors seeking US dollars and US yields should be quick to move. The likelihood that US interest rates will decline in the months ahead is now very high. Short-term rates next year might collapse to the 3-3.5% level. Initially, long-term rates will decline faster as capital pours into US government bonds. This will most likely create an inverted yield curve within the US until the Fed is forced to respond to the global trends. Thus far, the decline in the US share market basis the S&P 500 has been only 14%. This is not enough to make the Fed panic. However, a 23% drop by October could have an impact upon Fed policy.

Emerging markets are now collapsing everywhere. Even within the ERM, the fixed exchange rates are under attack, which brings into question the viability of the ECB ( European Central Bank ) come next year. Under the current system, the ECB will be forced by law to bailout and defend any member currency within the Euro at all costs much in the same manner as Hong Kong or the IMF have acted in recent times. Under the current global conditions, trying to create a single currency right now may prove to be the worst mistake ever made.

Russia’s impact upon gold and silver are clearly monumental. While inventories in Switzerland have jumped from 5 to 70 tons in part thanks to Russian sales, the collapse in Russian debt is also have a major impact upon the banks that have now recalled all gold on consignment or which has not been paid. Suddenly, credit to none major countries such as Turkey and India has been reduced or eliminated. All gold is being recalled back to the vaults where selling into the open market is now taking place. A collapse in metals prices at this time maybe unstoppable going into next week.

For now, the events that are unfolding are very serious. We are most likely going to face a second wave of credit problems from the Eastern European nations that depend upon Russia as their primary trading partner. The Russian fallout is spreading to Latin America where the credit markets have another $300 billion to worry about from the banking sectors. These problems are only magnified by the inability of Japan to deal with its problems while its ministers are trying to talk the yen up without fixing the problems that are causing its weakness. Hong Kong continues to intervene in both shares as share futures in a futile attempt to hold its currency. We now must be concerned that Hong Kong just does blow-up itself by taking huge losses due to its intervention like the IMF and other Asian nations. A blow-up in Honk Kong will undoubtedly cause a devaluation in China as well. And of course there is Canada. After raising its rates in a last ditch effort to support its currency, the C$ fell to new lows within a matter of hours. Canada again appears to be ready to commit suicide rather than cut taxes. In the end, not only is the world economy going nuts, we have far too many politicians who seem to be taking us down a road of sheer financial chaos

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:25
Mtn Bear (SE) (Comments) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Let's hear it for our entrepid pilot/ether traveler Mr. Gollum!!
It truly took GREAT BALLS OF STEEL ( not gold today ) to fly that untested mochine in today's maelstrom. We are glad he is still with us. If a silvery disk shaped device is not yet available, may I suggest a Big Black Stealth 'Copter, loaded for BEAR.

JTF, after several months of bear market ( that is right, my friends, I said months ) the story of the derivitive influence on this market collapse will start to emerge.

This is only the beginning. The bubble had some small leaks starting in July; now several of them have become a larger vent. This is a huge bubble and it will take time; we will see sharp rallies which will give all the sheeple renewed hope, only to have that hope dashed again and again. I went through the bear in the '70s which was very mild compared to what I believe this will be. And still it seemed to last a very long time. We will return to proper valuations and PE's of 5 to 15 as a norm and dividend yields which will entice a new class of value investor. IMVHO, there is plenty of time to get properly positioned to profit from the coming bear; just watch for those sharp up spike days, and find yourself some suitable ( no earnings ) stocks that have been flying high, and short the S**T out of 'em or buy more BEARX or RYURX.

Gold: Watch for the bottoming patterns to emerge in the miners and confirm before buying.

This is in lieu of my regularly scheduled Friday night seance.
Best Regards to all Kitcoites; Mtn Bear


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:21
EB (Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...) ID#230216:
-
so......righty O.

Gold makes new lows..............hmmmmmmm. D.A. - like takin candy from a baby.......oh, what's that? We had no bet Bummer....... ( for me ) ...

Been doin alot-o back readin ( puta is in trouble again and postin from trabajo ) ) and something struck me that I had to repost. It is from our local Broke-Dude-RJ ;- ) He has been stating that gold will hold it's lows or there will be some big producer buying at below 280 or some short covering rally............. ( which EB will sell into ) ..................and stuff. And then he posted two sentences that I ad to re-read.....twice. Here she is......'tis ONLY from two days ago.

-----------------------------------

Date: Tue Aug 25 1998 21:38

RJ ( ..... You mean TA not T&A....yes? ..... ) ID#411259:

Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Beware the Russians. They don’t really have enough gold to send the market in a

tailspin should they decide to sell some quick, but the news will be good for a $5 drop.

OK

--------------------

this was right after he said:

A bit-o-both. There is a major 18 year bottom in place. So much for the TA.

It will be simple support. CBs are becoming buyers of gold. Remember when I tried to

explain that the CBs are traders too? Seems they are now at liberty to buy gold at 280,

that they sold for 330, 350, etc. Perhaps those whose railed against the Central Banks

for their cursed gold sales can now catch a glimmer of how and why these sales

happen. The Bankers are laughing all the way to the...... well..... nowhere actually, they

ARE the bank..... no where to whistle to, except maybe the water fountain.

Also even therefore indeedy, gold producers are buying back their forward sales -

again at tidy profits. These two factors, working in concert should keep gold above the

lows. There will be more leasing and sales as the year winds down, but it will be bound

in a tight range and I think 278 will hold.

---------------------------------

Well, RJ ole buddy.......ya done good. AGULP to ya! Even though I told ya the bottom wouldn't hold ...... ( big grin thingy ) . Ya' all would do well to read some of his stuff and take heed once in a while...........¿ohmy?

Now.......where did I put that gold chart......... ( ? )

away...to the charts! .....they NEVER lie....eventually ;- )

EB

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:20
Tantalus Rex ($280) ID#295111:
Gold cannot stay below $280 fo long.

A PROLONGED $280 will force many Gold mining companies to shut down.

Keep buying Gold and Gold Stocks at such low prices. We may yet see the POG go further down but not by much.

Remember that trying to pick the EXACT bottom in the POG is very risky investing.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:19
vronsky (NIKKEI COMMITTING HARI-KARI) ID#426220:

In first 20 minutes of trading the Nikkei already PLUNGING 540 POINTS
to 13843. Recall that John Kutyn has called 4000 Nikkei.

Watch the Intra-Day trend of the Nikkei at following URL - it's necessary to delete the letters en in the word golden

http://www.golden-eagle.com/asian_corner/asian_id_charts.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:19
Silverbaron (BANZAI !!) ID#288295:

Nikkei Chart

http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sth
ome.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:18
BUFFORD (Skip ****Go out and beat up PM newsletter writer) ID#253246:
Copyright © 1998 BUFFORD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Get out there and find that little wall street underground whore who predicted $10 silver by July

And that litter slut Dines who promoted SSRIF and Stillwater which got
whacked hard today. Like I am going to go out and buy a platinum using car after losing $46K on pm stocks since April. I never did understand why the worlds largest platinum consumer ( Japs ) would be
buying more platinum jewelry while their country is in a depression.

And the biggest pm pushin vagina of them all: Jimmy ( I never met a PM stock that I didn't like ) Blanchard. He has had some really great picks
over the years like Silver Standard, Corn-hole-copia, and that piece of chit that went bankrupt the day after I received his flyer St Gena-turd
and don't forget that ten bagger International Pursuit excuse me I mean
10 cent bagger.

Skip ** As part of my PM stock purchasing recovery every time I receive
a PM newsletter promation I plan on stuffing a maxi pad in the postage
paid envelope and returning it to these whores because thats what they
really want *********not our money

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:18
Speed (Old Gold) ID#29048:
Good find on the Russian gold news. It would be ironic if the Russkies dumped free markets and went to a gold standard. They obviously have more gold than dollars and want to use the 'lesser' of the two internally. They may just swerve into a good idea. What a great time to be alive.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:18
BUFFORD (Skip ****Go out and beat up PM newsletter writer) ID#253246:
Copyright © 1998 BUFFORD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Get out there and find that little wall street underground whore who predicted $10 silver by July

And that litter slut Dines who promoted SSRIF and Stillwater which got
whacked hard today. Like I am going to go out and buy a platinum using car after losing $46K on pm stocks since April. I never did understand why the worlds largest platinum consumer ( Japs ) would be
buying more platinum jewelry while their country is in a depression.

And the biggest pm pushin vagina of them all: Jimmy ( I never met a PM stock that I didn't like ) Blanchard. He has had some really great picks
over the years like Silver Standard, Corn-hole-copia, and that piece of chit that went bankrupt the day after I received his flyer St Gena-turd
and don't forget that ten bagger International Pursuit excuse me I mean
10 cent bagger.

Skip ** As part of my PM stock purchasing recovery every time I receive
a PM newsletter promation I plan on stuffing a maxi pad in the postage
paid envelope and returning it to these whores because thats what they
really want *********not our money

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:18
Donald (U.S. banks trapped in WAG derivative strategies.) ID#26793:
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980827/V000712-082798-idx.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:14
POLARBEAR (double space posting VIRUS :() ID#183109:
Bart/Anyone,
How do I get rid of this annoying double space posting virus?--previews fine.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:12
Envy (@PH in LA) ID#219363:
That's what I think he'll do too - nothing, least, not for a while.

Japan 13850.65 -563.14 -3.91%
Australia 2464.6 -96.0 -3.75%
New Zealand 1833.07 -77.76 -4.07%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:10
POLARBEAR (RUSSIAN GOLD BEARS?) ID#183109:
http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAU&t=RUB



3,614 Rubles for one once of GOLD. Do you think we'd find many gold bears in Mother Russia these days?



Just a thought...Japan? Canada? Down under--Gold at $505.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:08
Envy (Overseas) ID#219363:
Japan 13911.24 -502.55 -3.49%
Australia 2462.5 -98.1 -3.83%
New Zealand 1833.07 -77.76 -4.07%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:07
Greenstone Gold__A (Is there anyone out there........) ID#427265:

....who can shed light on WHY the Ruble has gone AWOL.......

Who, what, where, why and when has caused the demise, and what exposure have US Institutions ?

Aye,

Haggis

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:07
Frustrated (@Skip) ID#298259:
I feel your pain - probably even more. If I hear this one more time I am going to puke...from USAGOLD's website:

I no longer worry myself about the price of gold not moving in all of this; I thank my lucky stars for it. This gives us time to acquire gold cheaply in preparation for the coming storm.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:07
amateur (Maverick) ID#176253:
Copyright © 1998 amateur/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for the explanation, but I still don't really understand why dollars are a liability against the U.S. To be sure, when the dollars are spent goods will be provided for them; so there is a sense in which those goods are owed to their dollar-holding potential buyers. But ( a ) they are not owed by the U.S. government or by any of its agencies; if there is a debtor, it is the American economy. Furthermore, ( b ) the dollars held overseas need never end up in the United States, but may be circulated endlessly in other countries. Anyhow, ( c ) dollars held domestically are liabilities against the domestic economy ( unless, of course, they are spent abroad! ) -- in other words, the debt is one we owe to ourselves. And finally, ( d ) since gold is as likely as dollars to be exchanged ultimately for goods, why isn't gold as much a liability against the provider of those goods as dollars are?

For what it's worth, it seems to me that the price of gold is unlikely to rise significantly as long as the central banks' leasing programs make the gold carry trade so profitable. The lease rates are so far below the T-bill rate that borrowing gold from a central bank, selling it, and investing the proceeds in T-bills looks like a riskless way to make substantial and regular profts. Of course, there is actually a risk in this: the borrowers become short when they sell, and so are vulnerable to a squeeze. The available data suggest that an effective squeeze wouldn't require an implausible amount of capital and would be immensely profitable. So can anybody explain why nobody is squeezing?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:06
PH in LA (Envy: What about the Yen-carry?) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Envy: Re Greenspan.
It keeps getting harder and harder to avoid the impression that Mr. G. has lost control of the situation. You imply that lowering rates would be to save the stock market. It might help, but it would also have the effect of trimming both the yen-carry and the gold-carry trades. Don't forget that lots of money still going into the US stock market comes from the yen-carry trade. With interest rates in Japan at one-half percent ( someone help me out here ) money borrowed there can be re-invested here at a good profit. Keeps the dollar strong at the same time. What else can Greenspan do? Lowering rates here is throwing gasoline on the stock market fire. If he raises them, more gasoline via increasing the yen-carry. What to do? Just what he has been doing. Nothing. What else can he do?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:05
Tantalus Rex (XAU TODAY) ID#295111:
Copyright © 1998 Tantalus Rex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
XAU END OF DAY SUMMARY
1998-08-27
ABX-Barrick Gold-CLOSED AT $14.3750 -0.9375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -1.15
ASL-Ashanti Gold-CLOSED AT $6.3125 -0.5000 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.18
BMG-Battle Mountain-CLOSED AT $4.5625 -0.1250 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.09
CDE-Coeur D'Alene-CLOSED AT $4.6875 -0.6875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.05
FCX-Freeport Mc-CLOSED AT $12.1250 -0.1875 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.11
GGO-Getchell Gold-CLOSED AT $10.0625 -0.8125 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.08
HL-Hecla Mining-CLOSED AT $4.0000 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.08
HM-Homestake Gold-CLOSED AT $9.2500 -1.0625 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.73
NEM-Newmont Mining-CLOSED AT $14.7500 -1.2500 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.64
PDG-PlacerDome Gold-CLOSED AT $9.3750 -0.4375 XAU CONTRIBUTION ( Est. ) -0.36

XAU CLOSED AT 54.23 -3.45

Looks like Barrick, Newmont, & Homestake did the most damage to the XAU today.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:05
Lurker 777 (Japan BELOW 14,000 ) ID#320226:

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 8:11PM 13984.52 -429.27 -2.98%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:05
PH in LA (Envy: What about the Yen-carry?) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Envy: Re Greenspan.
It keeps getting harder and harder to avoid the impression that Mr. G. has lost control of the situation. You imply that lowering rates would be to save the stock market. It might help, but it would also have the effect of trimming both the yen-carry and the gold-carry trades. Don't forget that lots of money still going into the US stock market comes from the yen-carry trade. With interest rates in Japan at one-half percent ( someone help me out here ) money borrowed there can be re-invested here at a good profit. Keeps the dollar strong at the same time. What else can Greenspan do? If he lowers rates here it throws gasoline on the fire. If he raises them, more gasoline via increasing the yen-carry. What to do? Just what he has been doing. Nothing. What else can he do?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:04
Envy (Overseas) ID#219363:
Japan 14044.01 -369.78 -2.57%
Australia 2488.9 -71.7 -2.80%
New Zealand 1832.36 -78.47 -4.11%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:04
nobody (NIKKEI just went below 14000) ID#375160:
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:02
Puetz (MARGIN DEBT & DERIVATIVES) ID#226307:
Copyright © 1998 Puetz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Fellow Hoosier: Margin debt and derivatives are two of the many reasons I'm so bearish this market. Both are a records. So far,
there has been very little liquidation by the leveraged players.

One leveraged player, George Soros has $2 billion wiped out in
Russia in a few weeks time. However, the leverage is in the
trillions, not billions. Watching panicky speculators face repeated
margin calls won't be a pretty sight.

The real panic will can in a few days, maybe more toward
mid-September. The we will see daily 1000 point losses in the DJIA,
market closures, and BLOOD IN THE STREETS.

Regards,

Steve Puetz


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:01
Jack (Vronsky) ID#252127:

In a confused state of affairs all is possible. In any event please dont ask Bart to change my handle to farout, I refuse to compete with F*. Thanx for you fine informative site.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 20:01
Silverbaron (Nikkei 225 down 355 8:07) ID#288295:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:59
Envy (Overseas) ID#219363:
Japan 14213.59 -200.20 -1.39%

Australia 2543.6 -17.0 -0.66%

New Zealand 1832.36 -78.47 -4.11%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:59
Greenstone Gold__A (Kitco sure is active today......) ID#427265:


The EURO, all you need to know......

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/euro/

Aye,

Haggis

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:58
vronsky (OPENS 200 POINT SDOWN) ID#426220:

In first two minutes of trading the Nikkei is already down 200 points. Most likely the 14000 Nikkei will be taken out tonight, despite frantic buying by the BOJ.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:53
Squirrel (Chas, et al - I impatiently await shipment of your coins) ID#280214:
I want to sell 'em.

What can we do to help?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:53
robnoel__A (PH in LA.....Do not know if you saw this URL I posted to you and Strad Master the other day....) ID#410198:
http://www.founding.org/bvbio.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:49
Bully Beef (Now I have to work till one morning I wake up dead.) ID#259282:
Buy futures in window glass and anti-depressants. After you jump out the window you will feel good about it. ( And make good returns as well )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:47
truenorth__A (Markets) ID#189268:
Copyright © 1998 truenorth__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Look for a major rally to start in the equity markets as early as tomorrow or next week at the latest. The blow-off today will be followed by major B.S. in the upcoming days, there will be comments from all corners and the sheep will buy. I am expecting a huge rally over the next week or so. However that will be the final shorting opportunity IMHO. The VIX, put/call, down volume and total volume accompanied by the extreme pessimism today will lead to a sizable rally. The big decline will come later as Russia, Hong Kong/China and Brazil fall apart and that will lead to Greenspan lowering rates. Gold will rally at that point. I can't wait to hear the Trim Tabs report for mutual fund money flowing out.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:44
The Hatt (Just ask yourself one question!!!!!) ID#294232:
Do you really think that the world will stand by and allow the USD to push their economies over the edge? The US although it appears to be strong is at its most vulnerable position since world war two... When the dollars are sent back how do you suppose Greenspan and Rubin are going to deal with the fact that they have carelessly been printing money to create the impression of wealth... The US is cooked and when the dollars start moving back home the true debt will be disclosed to all.... Not anti American just a realist...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:41
Squirrel (Are we hurting! We can sell our Gold at US$360 per ounce!) ID#280214:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To the masses in the form of 10-grain coins at US$7.50 each.
That is *wholesale*. The retail should be US$10.00 each.
In case sales taxes may hurt sales...
Make sure none of us sells locally but that we have friends
who will sell mailorder to locals who may be interested.
I sell to your locals. You sell to my locals.
That way we get out of any sales taxes. Sooooo....
US$10 per 10-grain coin.
Let the inscription of 10-grains be perceived as US$10.
If the POG goes up - we increase the price.
In any case
we should be able to get a 30% premium - less mint/mktg costs.
The retailer should get a 25% gross margin - more if the market will BEAR it. I am selling Silver Eagles for US$9.95 one or a few at a time.
I'll be glad to sell 10-grain coins to walk-in trade
at US$10 plus tax - or more if I can get away with it.
Maybe $10.95 plus volume discounts and all that.
So what do you say guys and gals.
LET'S DO SOMETHING AND KICK THE POG IN THE ASS.
( or at least do our little part to bite its ankles )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:41
vronsky (not too far from the straight skinny) ID#426220:

REf: Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:24
Jack ( )

The truth be known I don't believe you are too far from it!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:40
Bully Beef (Porkbellies) ID#259282:
And take delivery of the physical.Yes I'm breaking down.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:39
Envy (Greenspan) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Some posts today have talked about Greenspan saving this and saving that by lowering interest rates, saving the equities, etc. Greenspan ain't gonna do nothin like that. He's been saying ( and I've been listening ) that the stock market is grossly over-valued, and he is not about to step in to save it from losing it's value. Don't get me wrong - I doubt he wants to be seen as the guy who takes away the last refuge for investors who play the markets, the bond market, but I believe he will raise rates before he lowers them. I mean, think about it from his point of view - stable growth of the economy. He's sitting there looking out across America, he sees there is a slowdown in the economy because of foreign economies, and he sees this HUGE amount of cash sitting out there with no place to go - why would he get in the business of trying to pump even MORE cash into the economy by lowering rates ? It just doesn't make any sense at all that he would consider doing that. Greenspan, in my best guess, will sit there and watch all this play out for a while before he does anything at all, he's been planning on this sell-off for a long time, I've heard him say things to that effect on numerous occasions.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:35
Greatgramps (How far will gold go and when will it turn.) ID#434380:
Been a while since I have posted, but in light of todays events, I am wondering if who and how many will speculate on the the bottom for the pretty yellow stuff and when it will turn around and soar?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:35
Dutchman (THE HATT) ID#268260:
You must be my long lost mental brother. I agree with your scenario. Nothing seems to make sense right now except the stock market axiom buy low, sell high. I am getting creamed with my gold stocks, but what I see is a further opportunity to add to my positions. The XAU and physical may slide a bit more over the next few weeks, but when the gold bull starts snorting it will result in a powerful upside move that will be sustained for the long term. Buy now, worry later. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:34
Maverick (US $ used as a store of value (Amateur) - Throughout the world,) ID#34761:
Copyright © 1998 Maverick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the US $ is the preferred method of storing savings. From Cambodia to Nambia, wealth is stored in the greenback, and specifically the $ 100 bill. As this is a considerable portion of total US $ in circulation, it is a liability to the United States. It is similar to the Postal Service printing commerative stamps ( 100 to the sheet ) that are kept by stamp collectors. $32 are taken in ( .32 X 100 ) for perhaps a $.50 output for paper, printing, distribution, et al. As long as the stamps are never affixed to an envelope, money has been collected by the seller without goods/services being provided.
The analogy with US $ held overseas is the same, yen, marks, yuan, whatever have been paid for these US $, yet no goods/services are provided as long as they continue to stay hoarded. Off the top of my head ( correct me someone ) I think there's about $1.5 Trillion buckeroos out there now. If these hoarders begin to spend it because of deteriorating economic conditions, or whatever, it becomes an inflationary pressure in the US, not a positive occurrence.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:33
Maverick (US $ used as a store of value (Amateur) - Throughout the world,) ID#34761:
Copyright © 1998 Maverick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the US $ is the preferred method of storing savings. From Cambodia to Nambia, wealth is stored in the greenback, and specifically the $ 100 bill. As this is a considerable portion of total US $ in circulation, it is a liability to the United States. It is similar to the Postal Service printing commerative stamps ( 100 to the sheet ) that are kept by stamp collectors. $32 are taken in ( .32 X 100 ) for perhaps a $.50 output for paper, printing, distribution, et al. As long as the stamps are never affixed to an envelope, money has been collected by the seller without goods/services being provided.
The analogy with US $ held overseas is the same, yen, marks, yuan, whatever have been paid for these US $, yet no goods/services are provided as long as they continue to stay hoarded. Off the top of my head ( correct me someone ) I think there's about $1.5 Trillion buckeroos out there now. If these hoarders begin to spend it because of deteriorating economic conditions, or whatever, it becomes an inflationary pressure in the US, not a positive occurrence.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:31
The Hatt (For weeks now!!!!!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have been warning of a made in Canada currency crisis and those that chose to comment simply told me I was crazy and that the weak dollar was not having a negative impact on their lifestyle..... They went on to tell me that I should not critisize the Government and that i should consider myself lucky to be a Canadian! Well here we are rates ratcheted up one full percent and a Loonie that continues to devalue.... This is just the start my fellow Canadians, we are going to go down the same path as Mexico! Watch for massive hikes in the days and weeks to come.... When rates hit 30% perhaps it will get your attention.. I call on the Canadian Government to raise rates immediately and make public its intention to buy gold.... Todays move was too late and if you wait to long now we will suffer far more than necessary!!!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:29
Frustrated (OLD GOLD 's 18:27 Russia and Gold...help me out here..) ID#298259:
Isn't this saying that Russia values the dollar over gold?

There are very few places where dollars are available even
at high exchange rates as banks prefer to retain their
dollar reserves.

There could be demand for up to 270 tonnes of gold from the
public, some 250 tonnes of which would come from central bank
reserves and the rest from commercial banks.



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:29
Greenstone Gold__A (How do you do the Tango......) ID#427265:


One step backwards, and two forward.....I hope so

Time to recheck GOLD against currencies...

The RUBBLE, soory Ruble, is not looking tooo good in US $ terms..

Against GOLD, take a look....

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html

So, when do the Russian's do a South Korea, and hand over the GOLD.....

STRUTH.............

Aye,

Haggis

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:29
Frustrated (OLD GOLD 's 18:27 Russia and Gold...help me out here..) ID#298259:
Isn't this saying that Russia values the dollar over gold?

There are very few places where dollars are available even
at high exchange rates as banks prefer to retain their
dollar reserves.

There could be demand for up to 270 tonnes of gold from the
public, some 250 tonnes of which would come from central bank
reserves and the rest from commercial banks.



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:28
Mountain Goat (@Miro RE: Equities) ID#349183:
Copyright © 1998 Mountain Goat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm somewhat in disagreement with you.
I do agree there have been many burned in the 8 ( ? ) year PM slide.
Myself included over the last year.

*BUT*

I would GUESS the ratio of DOW investors to PM investors approaches 100-to-1.
My point is that Joe Sixpack hasn't really even begun to look at PMs yet
All his buddies told him to buy stox
So he did
Now he's crying
He'll be bleeding before long

So he's just now beginning to look at alternatives. Bonds, PMs, Cash.

You say he will not go into PMs.
I agree, somewhat.
Mostly, Joe will do the wrong thing for the wrong reasons:
( he'll do whatever everyone else is doing )
But a few will see. And a few will come.
I think.

I'm here. I saw. I learned. I've caught the bug.
Paper is paper. Gold is gold.

I pray Joe will learn the difference soon.

Regards to you!

MG ( Go Gold! )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:24
Nick@C (Is everyone having fun) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold actually went down faster than the Aussie Peso overnight. Now we are slightly below the A$500/oz level. Short sighted? Aussie/Canuck/S.A. miners are flogging gold as fast as they can at these high prices. Trading future gains for survival. Can you blame them for their myopia? If they can lock in survival prices now, they are doing so. If the POG goes to $200, they are still in business. If the POG goes to $400, they do not participate in the windfall. Or do they? If they are quick on their toes they can always reverse their positions and participate in a gold bull. Survival first.

Noticed you guys were so stunned that there was no comment for 5 hours. Too busy licking wounds

Aussie markets open in half an hour. SYCOM ( futures ) show a blood bath. I am getting my bandages out and will try to sell and then buy--all in the first half hour. Then maybe sell again. Maybe.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:24
Jack () ID#252127:

Stage is set for Greenspan to pull somethings out of left field.

1. Devalue the dollar to level the global playing field for GM, GE, IBM and latter day wonders.

2. Buy back that outstanding 5.5 trillion domestic debt with cheapened dollars.

3. Further piss off the foreigners by paying the outstanding trade deficit with the same cheapened dollars.

Then to really peeve them announce about one year later or after the above deeds that the gold US hoard has tripled to 790 million ounces.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:23
HOOSIER (THANKS JTF, for your invaluable perspective on derivatives!) ID#401183:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:22
JTF (Signing off!) ID#57232:
gollum: Good to see that you had no passengers. Looks like that Labor day rally might not materialize, after all.

With all the turmoil, it is hard to know which way to look these days. Probably the best thing to do is hunker down and wait for all the missles and other flying objects to stop flying around. I'll bet RR may be a little exhausted by now.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:21
Junior (Russia discovers alternative to US$ as reported by Kaplan, ) ID#248180:
Slept in this morning. Wow, what are ya'll up to in the North side of this planet?

The Association of Russian Banks ( ARB ) has proposed easing regulations for the public to buy gold as an alternative to foreign currency in the present financial crisis. We must create an infrastructure for the public to buy not only dollars, but also gold, Sergei Yegorov, the ARB president, said in a press conference.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:20
Mike Sheller (Tribute) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Heartfelt thanks, and a crisp salute to brothers Gollum, JTF, Donald, Panda, and friend Reify for all their penetrating comments this morning re my Indeflation quandary. This shade-tree astrologer is happy as a pig in sh*t to be able to tap into the wonderful minds of so many of Kitco's denizens. We will all have ours wins and losses, be right and wrong. This will happen to us all. But to share the mental and intellectual camaraderie that occurs at this forum is the kind of blessing that makes obtuse and parochial concerns virtually universal and very stimulating and satisfying. Where else can one learn about how right, or wrong one is, and a little something about the Denarius at the same time.

Viva Kitco. This is true value. This is true wealth.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:19
PH in LA () ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Had this ready to post when the lights went out this morning:


Lawyers hardly ever enlighten people like you who think because they know the meaning of a word in English they understand the word in legal language. You go right on thinking whatever you like.

Dear Mozel:
Bart's site ( as well as countless other internet sites around the world ) carry their content in the English ( as opposed, apparently, to the legal, whatever that is ) language. If your intent is to enlighten those of us afflicted with this limitation, about the law, you would be well advised to limit yourself to the English language, too. Increasing the proportion of murk in ( your ) posts so certain individuals will just skip over them will only serve to increase their irrelevance.

Your apparent preference for legal language reminds me of the alliance between the US Government and the Federal Reserve. Their obvious attempt to make simple reality as complicated as possible does fool many of the people much of the time. However, at some point, enough becomes enough, already! and the whole system of obfustication stands naked for what it is. Deception!

As owner of a motor vehicle ( in every sense implied by the English language ) , I incur certain obligations that go hand in hand with ownership. If the state feels the need to insure compliance with those responsibilities by reserving the right to impound the vehicle ( while transitting the public roads ) in order to safeguard the legitimate rights of other citizens, that does not make the state the owner ( again, in the English language ) of said vehicle. According to your radical legalize, the citizen, finding himself in jail for infractions of recognizably necessary and accepted laws, proves that he was, all along, the property of the state? Not in the English language that I know and love. Nor according to any basic tenants of common sense. Each and every one of us, by opting to participate in the social fabric, accepts limitations on our freedoms. Common sense says that one man's right to move his fist stops where another man's nose begins. Making things seem not as they are does not change common sense.

All attempt at communication relies on the good will of both communicants. Part of that good will involves accepting interpretations. Your interpretation that the purpose of government is to remove Federal Reserve Notes from my pocket to theirs is fixating on a half-empty glass. It is equally true that government provides many and varied services to its citizens and for these the citizen pays a price. Or do you subscribe to the mentality that expects something for nothing? At the same time, trying to infringe on the good intentions of the English language by substituting legal languange nullifies the communication for both parties. Intentionally making your remarks murky...so certain individuals will just skip over them implies that you, too, are willing to forsake good will. A parallel can be found in music. There are a great many esoteric details that must be understood in musical terms and complied with before music can be invented and/or recreated. Allowing those details to come between the musician and the listener makes the music pointless. Just what is YOUR point, anyway?

Something else that you would be well-advised to think long and hard about: Every human being is unique. Each and every one of us has knowledge that no other human being has. Some have more, some less. This does not make any one human being superior to any other. I am very sure that even I, myself, know vastly more than you do about some aspects of music ( and probably other topics as well ) . This does not make me superior to you, just different. It would appear that you feel that since you have interested yourself in legal matters more than others here have done, that you are in some way superior to them. This is an incorrect interpretation that you should consider modifying. It detracts from the positive effect your interest in legal matters could have on your fellow man.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:18
FOX-MAN__A (Silverbaron; Thanks for posting the Comex Warehouse stats.) ID#288186:
themissinglink; I was only kiddin' 'bout the pessimistic thingie.
We're in this game together! Let's play it right and hopefully get
some of our investments back into the positive category! Foxman

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:16
JTF (Derivatives meltdown) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
HOOSIER: I think derivatives are more like a secret weapon with a delayed effect. When the derivatives market crashes, you don't know the degree of carnage until the corporate balance sheets come out. And, I'll bet that it is pretty easy to cover losses up for a few months.

Perhaps somone could write a computer program that could calculate how much any particular entity won or lost -- but that would require much more market regulation than the current OTC world derivatives market currenty has. Black and Scholes may live to rue the day that they got the derivatives markets really rolling -- sort of like nuclear energy for the markets. Useful if well controlled, but deadly if unregulated. We got the latter, and the OTC regulation will not come till after the crash.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:15
moa__A (Fed buying off Aussie producers to keep lid on?) ID#281175:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/fed_seen_s_2.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:15
Spock (Beaming Up now) ID#210114:
It serves us right. We gave up on Bretton Woods and Keynes. we instituted the same free market economics as the 1920s and 1930s and got the same result.

It serves us right.

Keynes lives.

It serves us right.

Friedman and von Hayek suck.

It serves us right.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:15
Silverbaron (Nikkei 225 futures) ID#288295:

http://www.barchart.com/cme/cmenkdp.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:13
JP (Canada raising interest rates to protect currency without a substantial tax cut and gold ) ID#253153:
purchases will accelerate the deflationary trend and cause massive unemployment. Canada should learn from the Japanes experience.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:13
Skip (...and I thought I was bleeding yesterday!) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just when it appeared that gold could go no lower...THUD!!! Well, fellow Kitcoites, I don't know how many of you are still reeling in shock. Personally, words cannot adequately express the feelings of sadness, fear, discouragement, frustration and anger that I'm feeling over the relentless downward spirall of PM's and gold stocks.

Today I called an officer of one of the gold mining companies, and he was quite open about the beating that gold stocks have taken since the BRE-X scandal last year. He acknoledged the opinion that the spin masters have woven fear into numerous articles and analytical reports of PM's in their successful attempts to scare people out of investing in gold and gold stocks for over a year now. He shares the same question that I have: WHO IS BUYING all this gold that is reportedly getting sold? SOMEBODY is buying, and doing a good job of keeping it quiet.

It seems that gold is held down through the combination of ( 1 ) excessive bank selling the last couple of years, ( 2 ) massive short-selling by major funds, ( 3 ) spin masters doing their best to scare people out of PM's and PM stocks...perhaps to continue making profits on short-selling, and ( 4 ) producer hedging and forward-selling. Well, if #2 and #3 are correct, then the major shorts will get what's coming to them. As to #4, can't the producers recognize the risk of their short-sightedness?

Meanwhile, I'm hurting to badly that I had to get analytical in this posting in order to keep from posting profanity and other adjectives to describe one of the most miserable days of my life.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:13
Gollum (@HopeFull ) ID#43349:
Yes, I'd say we have departed the MRCI flight plan.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:12
The Hatt (December Futures plus $1.20!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The currency wars are about to begin as Asia faces its toughest evening! With the immenent drop below 14000 and the fire sale of real estate expect to see massive sales of US Treasuries. What better time to unload while the sheep are being herded to the bond market. I call that built in liquidity....... Gold is ready to turn the corner and we can all look forward to a massive short squeeze.... Russia understands as they are talking about gold sales from the central bank to their citizens with the guarentee of a buyback! They are sending the first signal that gold can and will replace the US Dollar.... Will Japan be next!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:12
BUFFORD (Buy PPG not PDG) ID#253246:
In 1929 the windows used to open on wall street making it easier

for all the stock picking geni- asses to jump, this time windows will

have to be broken************ buy glass


Go Glass

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:10
Mtn Bear (SE) (@BillD) ID#347267:
Say now; be fair! it was the new aviatrix pilot yesterday that I made the flight training in submariner school comment about! Mr. Gollum told us he was testing a brand new design jet fighter today. As we used to say in the early days of the ICBM development programs, yu gotta expect some failures!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:09
Gollum (@JTF) ID#43349:
Had no passenger today. Was flying the new ( now scrap ) single seat high performance fighter. Did not realize they had ground to air missles.

Yesterday we had the rookie out with no passebgers either. Hasn't been safe enough in the air for passenger last couple of days.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:03
HOOSIER (Derivative Meltdown?) ID#401183:
Mr. Puetz and all Kitcoites:
Are we now experiencing major derivative meltdown in S&P futures, and/or margin call notices on stock purchases? What degree of exposure do these traders still have in the market?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:03
MoReGoLd (@SPOCK ) ID#348286:
Baloney...... No-one knows what will eventually propel Gold into the stratosphere, but it sure could be the collapse of the equity market and a general global financial crisis.
The DOW bull never helped Gold one bit..........

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:02
Silverbaron (PMF) ID#288295:

Round #4 - Derivatives sink the Japanese banking system, taking all of Asia down another notch.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:01
mozel (Of Course ,Gold Money is a Commodity) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
COMMERCE, trade, contracts. The exchange of commodities for commodities;
considered in a legal point of view, it consists in the various agreements which have for their object to facilitate the exchange of the products of the earth or industry of man, with an intent to realize a profit. Pard. Dr. Coin. n. 1. In a narrower sense, commerce signifies any reciprocal agreements between two persons, by which one delivers to the other a thing, which the latter accepts, and for which he pays a consideration; if the consideration be money, it is called a sale; if any other thing than money, it is called exchange or barter.
Bouvier 1856.
Credit is not consideration. Gold is worth less today than yesterday as collateral for credit. What it is worth for barter or as money is not known.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:01
Gollum (@Mountain Goat ) ID#43349:
In a few days Mary Sixpack says to her husband, Oh Joe, you got a call from your broker..something about a margarine call or merging call or somethin..

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 19:00
Miro (@Mountain Goat (@All RE: Equities)) ID#347457:
Copyright © 1998 Miro/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mountain Goat, you are partially right about Joe Sixpack loosing money in equities, however, it means nothing for future direction of Gold.

1. Joe Sixpack, after loosing in equities, will not turn to Gold. He will remember that Gold lost even more than his mutual fund

2. For every Joe Sixpack in equities you can probably find Joe Shmoe who lost more in a Gold market, and, once bitten, twice shy. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. After all talking for such a long time gold bull market is around the corner

The money that left Gold market today... Won't be returning

Folks, I think everybody lost today, it's just that some people who can take beating may recover their money faster going into sectors which already had their bear cycle ( e.g. PM, Oil, etc. ) However, not yet and not so fast ;- )

- Miro suffered but will be back - not yet ;- )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:59
JP (Another bomb is about to drop on Japan) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
When the Nikkei confirms the next downleg by closing below 14,000, the Japanese will begin to panic by realizing that their banks are broke.
A substantial markdown in Japanese bank assets ( Japanese balance sheet are tied to stocks ) will accelerate the chaos in Japan and usher in a depression. At that point, the banks and insurance companies will begin to sell their US treasury bonds to raise cash. Since they have very little gold , some of the cash will be diverted to gold purchases. The Japanese deflationay implosion will intensify with the results of soaring unemployment, etc. I have estimated that the Nikkei will decline to 10,000 or lower on the new downleg.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:59
PMF (What round are we in now anyway ?) ID#224363:
Copyright © 1998 PMF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Round #1 - A few brave bears say 'no more equities...I'm getting out. This period lasts between April and the end of July.

Round #2 - A few more wake up ( some funds, active investors, etc. ) and say, 'no more equitities...I'm getting out'. This period lasts throughout August.

Meanwhile, all developing nations and most resource-based currencies collapse. But not the mighty US dollar, it continues to show tremendous support. As a matter of fact, it looks so good that US-based money goes into US money markets and the US equity markets die.

Round #3 - Anyone care to guess

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:59
MoReGoLd (@TONIGHT ) ID#348286:
I don't even want to check the Asian markets tonight..... tiiiimmmmbbbberrrrrrrrrrrrr .........

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:58
Spock (Well, there you are!!) ID#210114:
Markets collapse, GOLD GOES DOWN!! Goldbugs; pray fro a recovery in world markets. That will be the only thing that sparks the bull.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:58
amateur () ID#176253:
Copyright © 1998 amateur/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Two peculiar ideas are surprisingly current. ( 1 ) The merit of gold as a store of value is proven by the fact that the price of gold has risen against every currency that has been devalued. ( 2 ) Gold is the only monetary asset that is not someone else's liability.

As for ( 1 ) , isn't it obvious that when a currency is devalued the price of absolutely everything denominated in other currencies goes up?

As for ( 2 ) , I wish someone would explain in what sense dollars are anybody's liability. I have seen it claimed that U. S. dollars are a liability against our central bank. But what is the meaning of this claim? Just what is the liability, and how might the central bank be required to discharge it?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:57
Gollum (@Cowgirl__A ) ID#43349:
It wasn't my fault, I tell ya. How did I know they were going to knock out Kitco control and use missles? No one told me there were missles.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:56
MoReGoLd (@DEAR ABBY CO-HEN SAYS) ID#348286:
BUY BUY BUY --- SUCKERS ..........

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:55
JTF (Backup plane? I suggest something disklike and silvery) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gollum: What sort of plane do you have in mind for tomorrow? I would suggest one with gravity nullification, but I don't have all the specs yet. Still under wraps in Finland. NASA found out about it.

Perhaps an extraterrestrial Kitcoite could come to the rescue and drop in. Too bad the flight characteristics of such a craft can't be duplicated in the markets -- you would make AG tickled pink if you could come up with something really crashproof. Boy, do they need that now. Infact they need multiple craft. Tall order.

What really frustrates me is knowing that the only crashproof 'fiat' equity market is one that has already crashed, and shaken out all the debt and other excess baggage. We're not even close to post-crash safety yet.

What are you going to tell all those new passengers -- or did the old ones make it? Come to think of it -- if the old ones from yesterday turnup -- how many will want to volunteer for another flight tomorrow? I'll bet they would rather watch a Steven King movie with a JD instead.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:55
JTF (Backup plane? I suggest something disklike and silvery) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gollum: What sort of plane do you have in mind for tomorrow? I would suggest one with gravity nullification, but I don't have all the specs yet. Still under wraps in Finland. NASA found out about it.

Perhaps an extraterrestrial Kitcoite could come to the rescue and drop in. Too bad the flight characteristics of such a craft can't be duplicated in the markets -- you would make AG tickled pink if you could come up with something really crashproof. Boy, do they need that now. Infact they need multiple craft. Tall order.

What really frustrates me is knowing that the only crashproof 'fiat' equity market is one that has already crashed, and shaken out all the debt and other excess baggage. We're not even close to post-crash safety yet.

What are you going to tell all those new passengers -- or did the old ones make it? Come to think of it -- if the old ones from yesterday turnup -- how many will want to volunteer for another flight tomorrow? I'll bet they would rather watch a Steven King movie with a JD instead.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:54
Silverbaron (COMEX stocks) ID#288295:

Gold: unchanged at 912,517

Silver: 78,686,634 up 71,668

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:54
MoReGoLd (@RUSSIA - Breaking News) ID#348286:
CBS reporting Yeltsin already signed letter of resignation, to come maybe next week.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:52
Aragorn III (studiO.r...no point in beating yourself up over a day (unless, of course, it's a day too late!)) ID#212323:
Just be glad to be buying in the right year. Once it's in your hands, it's yours forever, my friend! Such is the case...history will not repeat 1933. We've stepped too far away from the cave, nationally and globally, to let it happen again.
Freedom, baby...freedom.

got gold?

away...tosavorasandwichorpastaorsomethingelse...withabeerinyourhonor

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:50
clktech__A (Russia - Gold instead of the Dollar? How dare they!) ID#338111:
Thanks for finding that article OLD GOLD. After all the bad press about gold it good to see a government that is on it's knee's eating some humble pie. They'll be doing more of that in the future!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:46
Delphi (Russia) ID#258142:
It looks like next Russian government will be at least 50% communist

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:43
James (Gold stock recos@For whoever asked) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have 2. I very conservative & 1 fairly speculative.

PDG. T&NY-If POG goes to 250 they are solid enough to last for years. Well diversified geographically & low operating expenses per oz.

SJD. V.-Has a property in Ghana & latest drilling results looked quite good. More importantly, todays share price was 1.10 Cdn & they have $1
cash per share, so they have enough working capital to drill out the property & can last at least 1 1/2 years with low POG. I have 4500 shares @ $1.20 avg cost, but think of them as lottery tickets. I figure that the odds are at least 60% that the share price will double in 3 months. And if POG recovers & they continue to report good results & there is no revolution in Ghana, etc. etc., it could be a $5-10 stock within 1 year.

I bought more PDG today.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:40
STUDIO.R (@AragOrn 3...hell, you earned it!) ID#119358:
Yup, T#1 spreading gold like apple seeds through Kentucky-Land! Helluva.Guy that johnnie tOlerant...........! I hate to admit it, but I bot a wee more physical yesterday.....day early, dollar short. DUH! It's too late to sweat details, friend. ( I guess )

Best to YA! G&P to YA! ( and yours ) ! ( gulp ) ( ahhhhh )

studio.fenderamp


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:38
Lurker 777 (New 5 yr. LOW and falling! DOWN 4.23%) ID#317247:
New Zealand NZSE 40 6:42PM 1829.97 -80.85 -4.23% http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^NZ40&d=5y

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:37
JTF (Gollum Airlines) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
gollum: Tried to reach you earlier but too much turmoil in the Aether. Tried ask you what the 340 or so passengers on your Jumbo Dow jet were going to do -- did they have parachutes or ejector seats? Since I figured they did not, I figured you offered todays flight for free, as long as they signed a no-fault waiver if they didn't make it. Bet you had mozel write up the fine print.

By the way, what did happen to all the passengers after you ejected?

On a more serious matter, I dont recall a single day drop in the US markets like this in years. They are beginning to behave like some other markets we know all too well. What worries me is that Canada may start to do what South America is doing, despite the efforts of the Bank of England.

I wonder how many gold mines were promised to the Bank of England for their support. Can't believe the BOE came to Canada's support for nothing. Good thing Canada has lots of natural resources.

So -- how much more of a drop before the baby boomers jump in? Or are they more sophisticated than we think they are? And any idea just how much gold went down? I'm not sure -- I think it is still above 280/oz, despite the XAU and CRY0 carnage.

Fairly soon, I think, CRY0 will be oversold, and come about. Will be interesting to see what gold stocks do then. Notice how gold stocks still tend to go down faster than the general equity markets? Must be alot of chicken investors out there who do not think long term -- goldwise at least. Alot of gold equity bargains ahead for those who keep their powder dry. Of course you can play it safe and buy physical gold. I'll bet the numismatic gold coin demand has doubled in the last week -- especially in Europe.

What we need now is a really good, solid rumor that the Rothschilds or Warren Buffett or G Soros are bying gold stocks. Probably not until the US markets drop some more, or come around -- and CRY0 bottoms. This deflation we are experiencing is probably a delayed effect of the Oct 97 SEAsian crisis. Unfortunately, we are having a Russian and South American and Japanes crisis right now. And, in several months, all those derivatives losses will surface. Then we will find out who lost, and who didn't.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:37
Gianni Dioro__A (Market Commentary) ID#384350:
-
The up volume vs. down volume was incredible. Heck, I'm surprised the market didn't tank further.
NYSE $53M up vs. $882M down
AMEX $2M up vs $60M down

Canada raised its lending rate a full percentage point today to try to salvage the Loonie. Doesn't seem to be working. Norway also raised rates within the past couple of days. It looks like a credit crunch on a global scale is in the making.

Things are getting ugly. The PPT has to be worried as there are too many holes in the dyke, and not enough fingers. Abbey Cohen lost face, now the dippies are going to be reluctant to take her advice when the market really tanks.

Whether the Dow can manage a counter rally likely depends on what happens in Tokyo tonight. It appears that the PPT was trying to hold the Nikkei above 14,400, yesterday. Now with mega support at 14,312 and 3-4% losses in Europe and US ( 10% in S. America ) , the Nikkei may very well Crash through this multi-year low. It reminds me of when Hong Kong broke through support last year, and started the mini crash of 97. This time it's serious.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:37
HopeFull (So much for the MRCI SEASONALS!!!!!! Gollum) ID#402148:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:36
paths (Gold slumps in Europe on Australian miners' sales ) ID#22571:
-
06:42 a.m. Aug 27, 1998 Eastern

LONDON, Aug 27 ( Reuters ) - Gold continued its downward slide in Europe on
Thursday after falling overnight on a flurry of sales from Australian producers cashing in on their weaker currency, dealers said.

....
Australian dealers estimated that about five tonnes of gold was unloaded.

Gold in Australian dollar terms was worth around A$500.00 an ounce on Thursday morning -- a near two-year high.

Dealers said they saw gold weakening further to around $277.00-$278.00 an ounce.

http://www.infoseek.com/Content?arn=a0795LBY400reulb-1998082...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:33
HopeFull (where's HeavyHitter, oops I mean GoGOld?) ID#402148:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:28
Silverbaron (Gollum) ID#288295:

Exciting flight today, but I missed most of it because of the long Kitco intermission.

How 'bout that seasonal trend chart?.....Guess we won't have to worry with that any more. BTW - the guys as AstroEcon nailed this one, to the day. Next Big day is Sept 4th, as I recall.

http://www.astroecon.com/open.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:27
OLD GOLD (Russian and gold) ID#242325:
Copyright © 1998 OLD GOLD/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Glenn; Let me second the congratulations. Great call. Be sure to let us know when you go long.

BTW, some potentially bullish news for gold surfaced after the close. Brighter days soon?

Russia banks propose gold as alternative to dollar

By Aleksandras Budrys

MOSCOW, Aug 27 ( Reuters ) - The Association of Russian Banks ( ARB ) has proposed easing regulations for
the public to buy gold as an alternative to foreign currency in the present financial crisis, the ARB president said
on Thursday.

''We must create an infrastructure for the population to buy not only dollars...but also gold,'' Sergei Yegorov,
ARB president, told a news briefing.

The ARB had submitted a proposal on this to a trilateral commission, consisting of representatives of both
houses of parliament and the government, he said.

The commission was now working on a package of measures to overcome the current crisis.

Russians rushed to buy dollars to preserve their savings after the government and central bank allowed an
effective devaluation of the currency by widening the bands in which it will be permitted to fluctuate to 6.0/9.5
to the dollar from 5.27/7.13 last week.

There are very few places where dollars are available even at high exchange rates as banks prefer to retain their
dollar reserves.

Yegorov said there could be demand for up to 270 tonnes of gold from the public, some 250 tonnes of which
would come from central bank reserves and the rest from commercial banks.

This could only be done if the value added tax on gold ingot sales was eliminated, he said.

Buyers of gold from commercial banks are liable to value added tax ( VAT ) at 20 percent, while the price of gold
is established by the central bank at one percent over the daily London fix.

Russians have bought about a tonne of gold from commercial banks in the last seven days despite the VAT, the
head of ARB's precious metals department, Dmitry Ignatyev, told the briefing.

He said one of the proposals by the ARB was to issue ''chervonets'' gold coins to the public with an overall
face value of one billion roubles.

The ''chervonets'' notes with a 10-rouble nominal value, in circulation in the 1920s, were convertible because
they were backed by the state's gold reserves.

''We propose that the central bank set a price for the coins and issue guarantees that it would be prepared to buy
them back at the same price within three months,'' Ignatyev said.

Earlier, Ignatiev said Russian commercial banks were expected to buy about 80 tonnes of gold from producers
this year.

Russia's central bank suspended all foreign currency trade on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange
( MICEX ) exchange for the second successive day because of fears the rouble was going into free fall. It later
announced there would be no trading on Friday as well.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:25
HopeFull (where's BLOOPER?) ID#402148:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:25
STUDIO.R (@rooskie gold......) ID#119358:
What psuedo-currency would russia accept in exchange for their gold? Today, they banned dollar sale by banks....?.....maybe they'll give away their gold as kindly payment on sovereign debt ( or maybe they'll forget that they plan on defaulting on the obligations.... ) sure...count on it.
DEFAULT!!! DEFAULT!!! It's the latest craze! zooweeeeeeee! Bigger than the Macarena ever was!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:25
Mountain Goat (@Aragorn III) ID#349183:
Did I hear you say, I don't care, I'm buying more!

That's what I thought. Me too.

MG ( Go Gold! )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:24
Bill2j (@All ) ID#259400:
Well, so much for the BIS stepping in and buying gold at $280. So much for 60 on the XAU being support. Anyone care to redefine how low gold can go now? $200 anyone?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:22
Bully Beef (Pants well soaked.) ID#259282:
Say you want a revolution....well shobie do waa.. we all want to change the world....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:20
TYoung (glenn...gooood call.......) ID#317193:
Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:20
Aragorn III (studiO.r ...I forgot to thank you several days ago following our dialog for the big O you used...) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I saw your explaination and felt duly honored. Thank you.

I'm sure you'll raise your cuba libre as I raise mine in tribute to tolerant1 ( if indeed he is Kentucky bound ) being the best damn Tolerant1 he can be.

Tough day all around. I might have to carve out some more storage space. Selling gold at these prices is akin to charity. They have earned my gratitude. My mining stock certificates on the other hand...well, it IS paper after all.
Clearly, getting more metal here is the obvious thing to do ( neither advice nor command...just thinking out loud ) .

got Marshall amps?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:19
chas (Cowgirl re your flight with Gollum) ID#147211:
I really like your sense of humor. You must be in Texas. Find a funny movie to go with the JD. I used to be a bourbon man, but I'm on brandy now- can;'t find any sour mash. Good luck, Charlie

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:19
glenn (Gold & the Dow.) ID#376309:
Well I covered my shorts today at $281.00. I was going to wait for some more but hte Dow dropping throught support finally scared me. I was short from $295.0 so.... Anyway I DID NOT go long yet. More down side but not too much more. But this is Gold so picking a bottom can be expensive and dangerous.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:16
oris (Tantalus Rex, reliable source must be correct, so...) ID#238422:
...from unreliable source - No selling of Russian gold.




Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:15
Mountain Goat (@All RE: Equities) ID#349183:
Copyright © 1998 Mountain Goat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Keep in mind who is losing here...
Joe Sixpack and his brother Joe Winecooler.

Neither have the stomach for losses
They are both @ss deep in debt
New house New car ( s ) New SUV New etc
Now they are looking at huge losses on their 'sure bet' stock picks
Their wives are upset
The world is getting scary again
Russia is on the verge or something bad
Terrorism is on the rise
Summer's over, winter's coming

And the talking heads have lost their touch.
Nobody knows what the market is going to do.
Uncertainty prevails.

If/When Joe Sixpack gets out ... HE WON'T BE BACK.

Once bitten, twice shy.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

The money that left equities today... Won't be returning.

Sure, we'll have a few rallys. The fund managers will do what
they have to do.

But the little guys? They're gone for good once they're gone.

All IMVHO.

I'm just listening/repeating to what's going on around me, as I sit
surrounded by a huge roomful of Joe Winecoolers.
( Spell that 'whinecoolers' after today. )

Regards,

MG ( Go Gold! )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:13
Envy (Hurricane) ID#219363:
Well, I missed it, rather, it missed me. Listened to the weather forcast the other night, got in my car, and drove down into the path of the big storm. Waited around near Virginia Beach all day yesterday, but the storm stalled out over North Carolina and just sat there - they kept pushing the estimates back further and further on when it would hit Virginia, and finally changed the Hurricane warning to a Tropical Storm warning and said it wouldn't happen until Thursday. I pretty much decided to come home, then some local badge made me leave, so I gave up and left.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:13
OLD GOLD () ID#242325:
Puetz: You make JP look like an optimist. He is expecting something like Dow 5000 this fall if memory serves.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:11
BCIWN (There is a story) ID#206298:
about it on the Yahoo International page that came online at 5:30.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:11
Silverbaron (Cowgirl) ID#288295:

Methinks Black Jack is your best friend for now.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:10
BCIWN (Russia is not selling gold) ID#206298:
They are thinking of backing some of thier currency with it!!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Puetz (STOCK MARKET CRASH) ID#226307:
It looks like rough flying conditions for Gollum Air again tomorrow.
The S&P is trading at 1034 -- a 9 point discount to the S&P cash
close. It look like another 100 point loss for the DJIA on the opening
tomorrow morning.

If the market is down sharply tomorrow or Monday, we may get a
bounce for a few days. By the end of September, however, it's
DJIA 3000 -- still another 5000 points lower yet.

Regards,

Steve Puetz


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Cowgirl__A (Gollum, you crazy son of a b*tch) ID#34191:
Who'll you get to fly with you now that we are all dead or dying? Just what do you plan for TOMORROW's flight? You know how wonderful our FRIDAY flights have been! Are we supposed to run out and buy more GOLD or should we buy stocks because they are such a BARGAIN? Or better yet maybe I'll just stay in bed with Jack Daniels!


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:09
Gollum (You dirty rat) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I was doing fine, would have pulled it out like I always do, but some dirty rat knocked out Kitco, fired up a stinger missle, lobbed a bomb into the room where all the levers are , and threw red ink all over the windshield. What a mess! What a crash!

Fortuneately I was in one of thos new high performance jets of ours and they have an ejection seat and chute. It's taken me all this time to walk back.

Must have been one of those terrorists...or maybe a Rothchild.

I think this may put us below the line on the MRCI chart. We might still have our labor day rally, but it's going to start from a much lower level...about 400 points lower, so instead of 9000 look for maybe 8600 hundred before the REALLY big crash.

Excuse me now, I have to go find some splints and bandages.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:08
Silverbaron (vronsky) ID#288295:

Ya beat me to it.

Some day, eh? I guess we now know what the XAU index stocks are gonna do when the market tanks. Looks like the Elliott wavers may be right at XAU = 35.

We patiently await the other side of financial doomsday.

Go Gold and Silver ( Have A heart! )


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:07
Tantalus Rex (Russia Selling Gold) ID#295111:

I just got word from a reliable source that Russia has/is selling gold.

Can anyone confirm?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:07
The Hatt (I Just Told My Wife!) ID#294232:
We are quickly approaching the crossroads and we are either going to be very well off or poor.... The only consolation to being poor is that if gold does not rally here we will face a deflationary depression and we will have lots of company... The fact that gold dropped today does not concern me at all as it was pushed lower at the opening in New York and at each point the market hit -350..... The plunge protection teams work!
Could very well be a great time for a short squeeze.... Watch for producer buybacks.....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:03
DEJ (Realistic.) ID#270235:
Copyright © 1998 DEJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In the longer-term a deflation would benefit gold because it's
the only monetary asset that cannot be defaulted upon. What is
a dollar other than a liability of the Federal Reserve Bank. In
a real deflation, the U.S. budget deficit would explode and the U.S. would be unable to service its $1 trillion of net foreign debt. It's
quite likely that the government would default in some form on its
debt. This would cause those that want to preserve their wealth to
flee to a monetary asset that is not simultaneously somebody else's
liability i.e. gold.

The reasons that gold has not gone up against the U.S. dollar are
the relatively high rates offered on short-term Treasuries and the
fact that most investors in my opinion have not correctly gauged
the impact of the global meltdown on corporate profits and real
U.S. economic activity. However, the chickens are rapidly coming
home to roost. Do you think the Fed will sit on its hands as the
U.S. stock market and financial system falls off a cliff? They will
agressively inflate by lowering U.S. short-term interest rates.
When the Fed cuts rates the dollar will head south and gold will
rise sharply. If the coming bear market in the dollar turns into
an international run, you may see outright deflation develop. However,
I think it more likely that other central banks will support the dollar
creating an inflationary depression.

I find it interesting that gold has risen sharply against every
currency that has devalued against the dollar. Once the Fed starts to
actively engineer a drop in the dollar to bail-out the U.S. economy,
then gold will rise against the last fiat currency standing--the dollar.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:03
Silverthorn__A (Lurker 777 - well put!) ID#247309:
But, my Dec98's cost less and increased in value more than your Dec99's and we ought to get to 240 about the same time. It doesn't matter, but the 98's are cheaper. By the way, Tuesday I was buying Dec98 275 puts for $340 each - today they were at $610. Glancing at the trend line, this is beginning to look better and better. Having watched my physical go in the tank due to manipulation, I'm starting to feel better every day.

NASB, yes? no?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:03
Silverbaron (Old Gold) ID#288295:

Abbey Cohen = Irving ( stocks are at a permanently high plateau, 1929 ) Fisher

What a legacy.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:01
HEAVY METAL (Russian Dressing) ID#402260:
Hey evreebody.... vass eet sumting I said? How about ve have shot of
Stoly and forget dis ever happen ..okayMaybe gold backed ruble..or
platinum plated railroad tracks vit silver spurs dat jingle,jangle, jingle. Hoo boy Boris, I tink I screw up big time.Oh vell, maybe Bill offer me job driving big American gas guzzler limo or make me head of US treasury...or host Saturday Nite of Living Dead....ah hell vit it.
Go Gold.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 18:01
vronsky (po'abby's predecessors...) ID#427357:
Copyright © 1998 vronsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

We will not have any more crashes in our time.

- John Maynard Keynes in 1927


There may be a recession in stock prices,
but not anything in the nature of a crash.

- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist in 1929



Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as ( bears ) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics in Autumn, 1929



For the immediate future, at least, the outlook ( stocks ) is bright.

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. In economics in early 1930

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:59
kapex (Be back later.) ID#275194:
.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:59
TYoung (Currency crisis....when it hits the US$...and the derivative losses reach epic amounts...) ID#317193:
you had better have a stable currency.

Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:59
TYoung (Currency crisis....when it hits the US$...and the derivative losses reach epic amounts...) ID#317193:
you had better have a stable currency.

Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:57
STUDIO.R (@Old GoldO.........) ID#119358:
Cohen was played well by the old' boys@Goldman. Shes gets the egg on her mutt face...while they sip dry 'tinis and formulate a blame story....young whipper-snapper almost broke us......blew the hole deal......dumb little bitch.......abby on a string ( soon to be cut ) .

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:57
kapex (ravenfire: The jig is up my friend! The almost arrogant refusal to even consider) ID#275194:
that the Stock Market could go down more than 25% is a HUGE bubble that has been long in the making. The fact that all are afraid of gold and it blew off to the downside, is what I wanted to see. I would not be short Gold down here at all. .......Elliot Wave, this is a clear break of the recent lows and does not bode well at all for the very near future. Unless this is a running correction the 3rd wave has begun and the adamnt disbelievers will soon be changing their tune.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:56
JP (What an event----The Nikkie futures in Chicago closed at 14,070) ID#253153:
If the Japanase Nikkie closes below 14,000 tonight, 95% of all the Japane banks wiil become INSOLVENT over night.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:56
ravenfire (volume on NYSE on -357 day) ID#333126:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.N&d=5d

losing ground on increasing volume. mmmm....


wonder if it's not time to go emulate a certain Vegas gambler I heard of ( eh, Nick@C? ) ...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:54
Envy (@JP, J) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JP: Thanks for that. I've been checking on the prices of my money market and they're staying stable, but you're right, in the longer term I don't want to be there either, but I feel it's safe for now. I've got my getting out paper work, but it takes time for them to process it, so it'll probably be a few weeks for me, which is great as far as I'm concerned. The reason I'm getting out has nothing to do with thinking that the money market is unstable, more to do with wanting to get out of dollars and into something else before the dollar falls off down the road. Probably Gold, especially if it heads to 270$US an ounce or lower. What a great buy that'll be.

J: Disagree - I personally don't think this is the time to build up debt, but instead to pay it off. Also, if this is a bear, it won't be soon that you buy back into the market, it'll be quite a long time. Just look at the Japanesse bear, there were people who ran in and bought Japan after it tanked and well, they've lost tons of money since then too, because it's still tanking, and will continue to tank. Cheaper than before doesn't mean cheaper.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:53
sig__A (DA.................... ) ID#210253:
Double or nothing to $269.90 before 10/1/98?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:53
jonboy (Gold Vs. Dollar) ID#250251:
Anyone: Gold would appear not to be a hedge against the falling stock markets around the world and now only the dollar reigns supreme. Is this because these poor sods only have Gold left as an asset to sell and save their sorry hides? In times past such financial chaos would have led to a spike up in gold prices not the reverse or am I wrong?

What will lead to the demise of the dollar as the king of safety and when will this occur?



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:52
OLD GOLD (Abbey's swan song) ID#242325:
Looks like the great Abbey's credibility has been completely destroyed. Like a rocket she shown brightly for a short period only to crash back to earth with a sickening thud. If JP is right she may be the first woman in US history to be lynched.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:51
TYoung (ERLE...when all about you are losing their heads...) ID#317193:
Your bet is as good as any.

Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:50
RETIRED SOLDIER (StradMaster,Reify,Tol1) ID#347235:
Well, My wife leaves tommorow for Garmisch, will get our new e-mail from her ASAP, I wont be at work tomorrow so will e-mail you from work monday I have firm offer for asking price on my house and when I get the gelt, plan to buy all the money in this here now cheaper gold!!!What say you? Jere

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:48
RJ (..... Sevens .....) ID#411259:

It fun being right, ain't it?

Indeedy so

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:46
OLD GOLD (LGB) ID#242325:
Why are many goldbugs rooting for a crash? Two reasons primarily

First we want stock investors to experience what we have experienced. Misery loves company.

Second ( and much more important ) many of us maintain that gold will soar after the crash when the world's central banks will be forced to print like crazy to prevent a global depression. And that includes our illustrious AG.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:46
ravenfire (interesting poll results on CNNFN) ID#333126:
http://cnnfn.com/specials/russia/

click on Poll: Buy, sell or hold? and fill out the form and then you'll see for yourself what the majority think is the 'right' thing to do...

( the majority usually being wrong in manias, of course )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:46
J (Mad Hatter_A: 401K escape) ID#174239:
Copyright © 1998 J/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Can you do a 401K loan? Mine allows some % to be loaned to me with 8% interest. This money can then be used to pay off other debts. Instead of paying the banks I pay myself, and instead of investing in the stock market my 401K has invested in whatever I borrowed the money for ( a car isn't a good investment but I have to have one ) .

On the other hand, if the bear continues, it will soon be a good time to buy stocks. Whatever you buy during the bears can be sold during the bulls. On average a 401K account with a Mutual fund should make about %11 per year. If you plan to retire in less than 5 years your probably somewhat screwed.

Someday within the next few years, gold should stop sliding down. Then it will also be a great buying oppurtunity.


GOT CASH?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:45
Lurker 777 (Help me Mr. Wizzard, I’m falling!) ID#317247:

As everyone here knows I have Gold December 99 290 Puts to protect my ASSests ( Gold coins ) .
I only wish I would have bought more Gold PUTS. If we get a small rally tomorrow I will be looking to add to my position. I am looking at some December 99 250 Puts for around $250 each. If I get filled I will wait for $240 Gold and buy the Phillarmonic Gold coins for no downside risk! DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:44
JP (Envy-- With money money fund you must be very selective) ID#253153:
Many of the money market funds invest in Repo's, corporate bonds and commercial papers. I expect many corporate and bank defaults. A better idea is to move the money to a fund that invest only in treasury bills or short term agency papers.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:42
STUDIO.R (@wipedout..........) ID#119358:
Boys, we rode 'er into the ditch today. ohmy. Yup, I've been wrong sooooooo long...I wouldn't know right from left. huh?

CUBA LIBRE TIME!!!! Get your arses up goldbugs...stagger back to your corner and....answer the damn bell. GO GOLDBUGS!!!! yous guys are tough. Salud! gulp.....gulp....gulp. make it a double please.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:42
Hunter500 (CNBC - Everytime I see Joe Buymystocklia,) ID#393125:
his nose is longer.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:41
Flash Gordon__A (dow jones) ID#284315:

What a fantastic call I made yesterday ;O )
Tomorrow we crash.
Thanks
;;

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:41
RJ (..... Damned Ruble .....) ID#411259:

So my bottoms did not hold
Bottoms are funny that way
In a brutally down week such as this
Fridays almost always bring a short covering rally

And rightly so

So Righty O

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:41
Mad Hatter__A (JP) ID#284230:
Thanks for the advise on 401K, it's see life saving go down the toilet.
Sorry for double post before.

Yea, I would GLADLY pay the 10% penalty to get it out now.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:38
Jed (@ the cabin...) ID#69149:
( Scene aboard the flagship airliner )

After Gollum appraises Jed of the seriousness of the situation and the need to keep calm, a nervous Jed asks:

Jed: Golly! You can't be serious?!

Gollum: I AM serious-and don't call me 'Golly'!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:37
Envy (401-k -> Cash) ID#219363:
You don't have to sell out of your 401-k fund or cash it in. You can cash it in by, well, going into cash. Most 401-k programs have an option for being in a money market fund, you just have to call them up and change the allocation to something safe. Cash is king and it will be for a while. When I got out a few months ago, I just called and told them to put me in cash, which they did - I needed a little personal ID number thing to make the change in allocation.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:37
Mad Hatter__A (Silverthorn) ID#284230:
Your version is correct...sorry its been a long day

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:37
Mad Hatter__A (Silverthorn) ID#284230:
Your version is correct...sorry its been a long day

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:36
JP (Mad Hatter--If your 401k plan is from company contribution, there is nothing you can do) ID#253153:
If you are contributing to the 401k plan, stop your contribution. If you must participate in the plan, choose a money market of a conservative bond fund that invest in treasuries.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:32
chas (Mozel your 8/26 21:20) ID#147211:
In re the first sentence you have gone some further. It appears this is another part of the Clinton scam. My wife is an AG teacher. The AG dept has recently changed the program and has come up with new categories of children for different teaching content. They are- many; some; and few. I'm nor intimately familiar with the program, but if you are interested, I can get a copy of the Guidelines and will be glad to mail them to you, Charlie

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:31
Silverthorn__A (Mad Hatter) ID#247309:
I think that it's ...shoes and ships and sealing wax... What edition are you quoting out of?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:30
Mad Hatter__A (JP (Runaway DEFLATION displays it's ugly face- 401K) ID#284230:
Please tell me how to CASH OUT my 401K without QUITING my job?

Also most 401K's profit sharing are under control of a discrecenary
finance investment board, that the employee has NO CONTROL over.
And thier choices are primarily the MARKET, MUTUAL FUNDS and more crap table stratagies!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:28
ROR (Gold Lovers) ID#412286:
We have to love this the lower it goes the better. Think, Russkies and others are clamoring for dollars which really in substance are no better than their own currency except the political security of the US this a chimera. Gold is the final currency. Further our buddies in Russia ie the Communist good guys will do everything to undermine US financials and help us goldbugs. Communism in Russia is now a form of liberal Capitalism which looks out for the interests of the average worker or professional. THE Internationale..how do we sing it for freedom.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:27
Monkee Person (@Puetz) ID#288105:
Hang in there, Hoosier. Like someone said the other day, if it were really a free market, the numbers would have been on your side of the prognosticating long ago.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:27
Silverthorn__A (Druckenmiller got what he wanted!) ID#247309:
The market is more likely to melt up than melt down...right. Wonder how his credibility in the market is doing today. He probably doesn't care, since he most likely cashed out on the big move late yesterday. But didn't the bulls take a broadside betting he was telling them what he really thought! What is he saying today - seems real quiet.

Hey Bart - what happened to Kitco - I can't get anything between 11:32 and 16:59. Crashed? That's about the same time I couldn't get on here.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:24
jims (So much for safe havens) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Gold and silver proved to be just what they are commodities forget the precious stuff - sold off into a falling market by parties that need $$$. Interesting that the dollar was weaker today against the lead currencies. Seems speculators are sensing lower US interest rates. My feeling is AG better get going on that point or we'll be in a spin from whihch there is not an out.

Kitco seemed to be locked up at the close in NY today. Maybe that's whey few were chatting.
Also Yahoo stock quotes failed.

Gosh wait to y2k - maybe all gold and silver will be in strong hands by then and we'll be melting up.

Looks like further down and more trouble out of Russia

cdm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:24
Mad Hatter__A (New World Order) ID#284230:
Now is the time the Walrus said, to speak of many things, of ships and sails, of cabages and kings....And why the sea is boiling hot and whether
pigs have wings.....

After the global economic crash, the NEW WORLD ORDER will be ready to SAVE us all, and unfortunately we will be willing subjects with no other recourse.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:23
(Sold Gold) ID#20963:
I sold about ten Oz of Gold yesterday when I got a margin call. I think Prechter may be right about gold going to below 200 oz before someone gets a handle on the deflation and inflation rises from its pathetic grave.

I have often speculated to myself that slower, more sustainable growth that i suspect we would have with a gold standard would be more friendly to the environment and human relationships.

Just an old fashioned guy, who has enjoyed the camradarie of the thinkers who post on Kitco

thanks bart.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:22
JP (Runaway DEFLATION displays it's ugly face) ID#253153:
Copyright © 1998 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The financial panic has begun. Equities, commodities and interest rates are falling simultaneously. We are in a Confirmed Dow Theory Bear Market. No one should doubt the accuracy of the Dow Theory. This crash will signal the coming depression which will start in Q1 or Q2 ,1999.
I wanted to outline a few steps people should take to ease the pain
1. Request delivery of all securities from your on line or traditional broker. Many of brokers will not survive the coming crash because they are fully invested with securities in their own accounts. I know they are all insured, but it they fail it may take a few months for the delivery of these securities. In the meantime, these securities will be marked down substantially.
2. Cash OUT of all 401K or pensions plans regardless of the penalties. In a depression these pension plans will become worthless.
3. I expect a very severe depression which will make the 1930's experience look like a sunday festival. Pay off all your debts.
4. After the crash, ( end of Sep or early Oct ) increase your gold coin and gold mining position. The purchasing power of cash on on will increase as the depression deepens in 1999.
5. I have estimated this coming depression to last for as long as 10-15 years. Don't expect miracles, they don't exist.
6. God help us all. All of us will be hurt.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:21
Mountain Goat (Kitco Trading Stops) ID#349183:
Not unlike the market's trading stops when things get too crazy;
Maybe Bart has built-in 'posting stops' to shut Kitco down when Gold drops more than $5.00 in any one 24 hour period.

Ahh well, I got more done at work today that I might have, had
Kitco been up. A blessing in disguise?

MG ( Go Gold! No dammit! That's the WRONG way! Up! UP! I say! )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:20
Speed (CRB Index Report... it's them Aussies selling gold!!!!) ID#28861:
http://www.crbindex.com/story2333.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:20
jonesy (Hope nobody here did THIS bad today . . .) ID#251166:
-
Soros Fund Loses $2B in Russia

NEW YORK ( AP ) -- Billionaire investor George Soros' Quantum Fund has lost about
$2 billion through investments in Russia, Soros' chief investment strategist said.

Stanley Druckenmiller, who manages the $10.6 billion Quantum Fund for Soros, said
in an interview on CNBC Wednesday that losses from the hedge fund so far this year
was about $2 billion.

``... There was a view in our shop that Russia had turned the corner and had gone
the capitalist route,'' Druckenmiller said. ``We thought they had gone to open society
and would come out of this, and frankly, they've been caught in the financial
meltdown that has affected the rest of the world.''

The Quantum Fund is part of a group of investment funds with assets of $21.5 billion,
overseen by Soros Fund Management.

A majority of the Quantum Fund's Russia investments is in equities, Soros Fund
spokesman Shawn Pattison said. So far Russian stocks have lost more than 80 percent
of their value since January.

Even with the losses in Russia, the Quantum Fund is up 19.1 percent overall for the
past year, said Pattison.

News of Soros' fund losses comes less than two weeks after a letter from Soros was
published in the Financial Times, an international newspaper based in London.

In that letter, Soros called for the government to devalue the ruble by 15 to 25 percent
and to introduce a currency board to regulate its value.

``The meltdown in Russian financial markets has reached the terminal phase,'' he
wrote.

Four days later, Russia announced plans to devalue the ruble by up to 34 percent,
though it has not introduced a currency board.

AP-NY-08-27-98 1547EDT

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:19
ERLE (TYoung,) ID#190411:
Ain't it grand? I wonder if I got filled today on Harmony and SGOLY.
I also wonder if Ashanti was buying their shares today.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:18
sam__A (@Rhody, all - Gold Lease Rate Theory) ID#286253:
Copyright © 1998 sam__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

There has been some talk that the current low lease rates portend a rosy future because low rates reflect low spec demand. Hmmm. Not sure. On such a dark day as this, let me suggest that these lease rates are being driven down by ample supply, not lax demand.

Russia has coughed up something like 300 tons for USD collateral - swapped and sold short. Venezuala has admitted to more actively managing it's reserves - how many tons there? It appears the countries currently being pinned-to-the-wall by the currency downdrafts are forking over their reserves to raise USD cash to defend their currencies and banking systems. ( All in the name of stability! ) Of course, these are all temporary measures....

With something like a 5% cotango and skyrocketing prices in RAND, $AD and $CD ( to say nothing of the ruble price ) , these gold flows may continue for some time. Ted Arnold was quoted recently to the effect of Gee whiz! Look at those juicy spreads! Pile on, boys! But never forget that it is all gold sold-short. Rachet 'er up. Our day will come.

Hang in there, guys.

sam__a.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:18
TYoung (BillD...$5.80 minus .50 is $5.30 times X ounces.....I'll recheck my math...) ID#317193:
Dead longs everywhere. Ugly, just ugly. We watch this ne...never mind. Waiting to see dead shorts...someplace besides my dreams!

Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:16
BillD (The best one that I have heard so far ...) ID#258427:
Where did Gollum take his flying lessons?

Submarine School!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:15
Realistic (Good message!) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Worth another read:

Date: Wed Aug 26 1998 22:37
BUGal__A ( Why do Kitcoites cheer for market crashes? ) ID#206235:
Copyright © 1998 BUGal__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Once again today, we see that highly Bearish stock market sentiment has been BAD for Gold and silver. We have seen the same effect from worldwide currency instability and even political instability lately.

If worldwide economic collapse occurs, and massive deflation with attendant depression and job loss rears it's ugly head, I'm afraid that all those who seem to THRIVE on signs of such a future, will be greatly disappointed in the outcome.

Gold will drop, gold shares will drop, the U.S. dollar will not become worthless by any means, but will be chased instead, and those who think they will somehow best all their sheeplike brethren out there by having metal in their posession, will find they have chased an illusion to it's final bitter senseless end.

Better to start thinking in terms of how to flaot all boats higher, than to think you have the only lifboat on a sinking Titanic. If the world drowns, we shall all suffer. IMHO, Gold will offer little if any solace.

A new boom and turnaound in the world economy, coupled with inflationary boosts in money supply, ( and perhaps an extreme political crises ) are the harbingers of higher Gold prices. Not worldwide depression.

With the track record of the past few years, I fail to see why so many on this site seem to light up with glee at any signs of U.S. or world economic collapse. You'll be proved wrong, not right, if things get bad enough.

LGB

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:14
Envy (Just Once) ID#219363:
I rarely get to say stuff like this, so indulge me just this once - cha-CHING! Envy made out HUGE on the market today. I knew the bears had it in them. A lot of people have forgotten what it was like to actually lose money in the stock market, but nature has a way of sending them a little wake up call.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:13
BillD (GCZ8 - Gold Futures) ID#258427:
UP .50...fifty cents...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:13
jonesy (test) ID#251166:
Kinda reminds me of that old Safaries' song . . .

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:11
Realistic (Gold) ID#410194:
Lows broken today, despite numerous calls of a bottom.... ( no later than yesterday in some cases )

Date: Wed Aug 26 1998 10:24
THE GOLDEN PROPHET ( GOLD BOTTOMED @ 278 ) ID#372262:

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:10
TYoung (Let me understand this.....) ID#317193:
If gold was a good buy @ $281 and it's now @ $276 it still must be a good buy. Right? Then it logically follows that gold @ $271 is an even better buy. Now, I think I've got it!

My physical gold just sits there and cares not of price movements but my gold mining shares...a HEDGE ( loss is a better word ) are tearful.

Could be worse, I could be in at the top of a market going way down instead of the bottom of a market...I think.: )

Smile, frowns do not do any good.

Tom

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:08
Redneck (Gollum must have taken us through a worm hole. ) ID#403234:
Seem to have gone back in time a few months, Dow @ 8166. Interesting, but when was 276 last time?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:07
saul (Jumping off a cliff?) ID#23484:

What happened to the afternoon's chat Everyone jump off a cliff?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:07
HighRise (Gold) ID#401460:

Not worth SH+T anymore.

HighRise

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:03
sig__A (Any goldbugs left?) ID#113316:
Test.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:02
Charleston Gold Bug (Gold Prices) ID#344389:
Is there any suppport for gold at this
level? Where is the BIS when we need them!:- )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:02
MM (test) ID#350179:
ouch

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 17:01
Charleston Gold Bug (Gold Prices) ID#344389:
Is there any suppport for gold at this
level? Where is the BIS when we need them!:- )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 16:59
Hedgehog (Gollum) ID#39857:
We urgently need more barf bags up the back, behind the bulkhead.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 11:32
Gollum (DOW - 253) ID#35571:
What's this little blinking sign? Does anyone know what flameout means?

Let's see, now is where Mr. Clinton announce that due to international monetary instability he has instructed Mr. Rubin and Mr. Greenspan to lower short term interest rates.

Any time now.

Any time.

Mr. Clinton?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 11:10
CharlieS__A (Link to spot gold) ID#298380:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/gold.gif
Don't look now, Its bleeding bad!!!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 11:05
EJ (Gollum) ID#229207:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Ya, cool. I'm digging the speed. It's all a blur. But I'm thinking if, at this speed, you just nudge the thing up or down a tiny bit, you get either whoooosh-wheeeee! Or whooooosh -- BOOOOOOOOM!

If the rate of acceleration of the arrival of bads news doesn't slow, I'm agraid the latter is more likely than the former. A bull market anchor, Coca Cola, was just downgraded. Rumors of Russia reverting to communist practices to regain financial order. The start of a Latin American debt crisis. It just keeps pouring in. Joe Sixpack may take a few minutes out of his busy day today to get the hell off of this thing.

-EJ

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 11:02
tricky (There is only ONE important technical level today 8263.) ID#304282:
We are now at 8299 only 36 points away. If we break this intraday THE CRASH is within days. 8263 is the critical level sighted by Jerry Favors for the last month. Now we are only 28 points away.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 11:01
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
JTF -- Perhaps we put them on the moon in a studio.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 11:01
Richard Burke (TSE CRASH) ID#411318:
TSE now down 6.3%, Gold Index down 5.5%. Where is this one going to end. Mike Stewart - any ideas?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:59
Aragorn III (Nine-Twenty-two) ID#212323:
September 22nd...the party is at hand.

got invitation?

got gold?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:58
Gollum (DOW -217) ID#35571:
Hmmnnnnn, I might want to change that to down six.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:58
wisecracker (alternative to gold) ID#240277:
You'll have to think of some new torture method. There is a big callous on my ass from it being burned so much. It would just dull the razor.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:58
themissinglink (Fox-Man) ID#373403:
I am not a pessimist. I just put money into BEARX so that I would not be 100% in gold. I am optimistic given my vantage point.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:57
sharefin (What's next?) ID#284255:
What's to happen when these levels break?

http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/INX.jpg

A rally?
Or capitulation?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:55
JTF (Delta III rocket explodes; markets) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: I think we lost a $1 billion US satellite about 10 days ago. I guess the joke is that we not only exported our missle technology to China, we got so excited that we exported our only copy!

Gee -- I vaguely remember that we put someone on the moon - more than once. How did we do that?

all: Well, anyone who thinks we are not in a deflationary mode, look at the XAU. I think this is new territory. I would guess that Donald will tell us later that the XAU/gold ratio is at a twenty year low. It will be interesting to see if gold stays about 280/oz.

Severe deflationary eposides like this occur only approximately every 60 years or so, so few of us have any prior experience with this. Whatever you do, please try to avoid getting squashed by the runaway freight train! This is certainly a time to buy physical, or sit on the sidelines with cash. Keep your powder dry!

Rats -- I forgot about that last 10k in silver stocks. Oh well, its 5k now. You should see what diamond stocks and Debeers are doing. Well, even the Rothschilds are taking a bath on some things.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:55
Tyro (Final Gold Spike down, OR . . . ?) ID#36977:
C'mon, everyone, time to fess up!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:54
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
Tortfeasor -- You paint a painful picture. But yes, it CAN potentially get uglier than this. But it appears that the tie between the yen and gold might not quite be as it was. Perhaps NASB is at hand or very nearly so.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:52
themissinglink (Party is over) ID#373403:
Dow 10,000? Forget it. This large ship is finally slowing. The mistake many of us made was assuming that the first evidence of this economy going into a recession would translate quickly into fact. This large ship has too much momentum to stop so quick. Many, myself included, have some losses due to turning bearish too quickly. When the ship stops and starts to go in reverse I expect to be handsomely rewarded for being properly positioned.

We are gonna need Ross Perot or some other business minded individual to take the helm now.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:52
Gollum (@Tortfeasor ) ID#35571:
Yes, it does.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:51
Richard Burke (TSE CRASH) ID#411318:
The TSE ( Toronto ) has crashed down 316 points or 5.2% so far this morning. The Toronto Gold Index is down 252 points or 5.0%. Oil Index is down similarly. I note an earlier post indicating Canada raised interest rates 1% and dollar still falling. The dollar drop is a fall-out of our baad economic and fiscal management over the past twenty years. Hold on to your hats!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:51
Gollum (Silver spot 4.87) ID#35571:
Drat! We would have to go and mention silver.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:49
Gollum (@EJ) ID#35571:
Forget about the trees, look at our Mach number, man, look at our Mach number. Zoooommmm!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:48
Tortfeasor (Alternative to Gold) ID#37463:
Instead of investing in gold why don't we slide down a razorblade nude into a vat of alchol or awhile? Does it get any uglier than this?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:48
Gollum (@Puetz ) ID#35571:
We've changed our name. It's Gollum Air and Aerobatics. And I agree with September. Say, about two or three days after the ides.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:47
EJ (Gollum) ID#229207:
So, are we going up from here? We seem to have levelled off, sort of. We're kinda close to the trees, tho. Don't you think? I mean, I can see little brown eyes of the squirrels in the branches.
-EJ

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:46
Gollum (@FOX-MAN__A ) ID#35571:
I would have gone for a positive close, but I'm kind of pessimistic today.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:45
Puetz (HELP) ID#226307:
Hurricane force winds have hit Wall Street, and I'm flying Gollum Air!

A crash is coming -- wait until September -- blood in the streets.

Regards,

Steve Puetz

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:45
wisecracker (Gold Stocks) ID#240277:
When is going to be a good time to purchase gold stocks. Are there any worth looking at.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:44
Gollum (@Mtn Bear (SE) ) ID#35571:
I was wondering when someone was going to notice silver. Whay do you think it's hardly come down at all?

If gold tanks, it may never come back. But if silver tanks, the ensuing demand will pull every last ounce out of COMEX. And I bet the central banks don't have very many tons of silver reserves....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:44
FOX-MAN__A (Gollum; DOW will close down 3 points? OK. Got it marked. Anyone want to) ID#288186:
make their guess on the DOW close? Any takers for a positive close?
Gotta Go......BBML. Foxman

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:42
Tyro (Spot Gold $278.20, Silver 4.92) ID#36977:
http://www.kitconet.com/gold.live.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:41
Gollum (Goat, did I say goat?) ID#35571:
It's hard to concentrate with all these new gadgets. Afterburner, ejection seat, trigger button,....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:41
MoReGoLd (@DEAR ABBY CO-HEN) ID#348286:
What will you tell your clients when the DOW tanks to 4800 ?
BUY ? .... DUH

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:41
MoReGoLd (@ABBY CO-HEN) ID#348286:
What will you tell your clients when the DOW tanks to 4800 ?
BUY ? .... DUH

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:40
Mtn Bear (SE) (CNBC) ID#347267:
Tune In!! Coming up: SAFETY IN SILVER?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:39
Tyro (Russia: Yeltsin to resign, hyperinflation next.) ID#36977:
What this means is the triumph of a loose policy that would crank up the printing presses in order to pay back wages and bankrupt industries, said one Moscow-based economist. This, then, would lead to hyperinflation.

Good read. see:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/moscow.htx?source=htx/http2_mw

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:39
Gollum (@FOX-MAN__A ) ID#35571:
I'll pick 8520.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:38
FOX-MAN__A (I wanna goat! Can I have a goat? Can I? Sorry Gollum.....just teasing...) ID#288186:
The big question. How good a job will the PPT do today?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:35
strat (Didn't finish that last one...) ID#93241:
Looks like gold is up in the last half-hour by .59 USD ( Hey, I'll take anything )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:35
Gollum (@themissinglink) ID#35571:
Boy! Have I goat a surprise for you.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:34
FOX-MAN__A (themissinglink; Wow, you think DOW 7985 by end of day, huh...) ID#288186:
Ok. I'll say DOW closes at 8270. Gee. I guess I'm not quite as
pessimistic........yet.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:33
strat (gold up .59 USD) ID#93241:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:30
Selby (Thank you Gentlemen) ID#286230:
From nothing to a surplus all in a hour!!!!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:30
themissinglink (Gore under investigation for campaign funding) ID#373403:
I say DOW 7985 by the end of the day.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:29
tsclaw (@SELBY) ID#327123:
This one is August gold:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/curcommt.htx?SOURCE=htx/http2_mw

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:27
MoReGoLd (@GLOBAL MELTOWN) ID#348286:
cANADA raised rates 1% and C$ falling even harder.
aUSSIE $ hitting new lows.
Gold being pushed down.
US equities collapsing.
Commodities collapsing.
Deflation.
USD is the last haven ?
GOLD, Yes ?

Global Meltown, Yes ?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:27
Gollum (DOW -164) ID#35571:
Wow! We hit -191 back there. Wait til you see what I can do with the afterburners on this thing.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:25
skinny (Selby) ID#28994:
It looks like the Big Red Tide is coming ashore.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:25
HenryD (Selby, all ... here's another) ID#36156:
http://www.briefing.com/etrade/mktint.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:24
Shlomo (Hatt/Derivatives/LTCB-Japan) ID#288399:
Did you see Miyazawa said today the Long Term Credit Bank owed 50 Trillion ( with a T, that rhymes with B and it stands for Bailout ) in the hole and that the LTCB may not be able to pay on its derivatives contracts? Isn't 50 Trillion yen equal to about 300+ Billion US Dollars?So, who cares if Yeltsin is out compared to Japan's debacle? Japan, taca, is a debacle.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:24
strat (Selby-try this) ID#93241:
http://208.222.111.7/financial/index.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:23
THE GOLDEN PROPHET (DOW DOWN 155!!) ID#372262:
Wake up CHEESEHEAD!!! Down hard through August call spot on!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:21
tsclaw (@SELBY) ID#327123:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/data/dbcfiles/curcommt.htx?SOURCE=htx/http2_mw

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:20
sharefin (Delta III rocket explodes at takeoff.) ID#284255:
What's happening to the great technology?

Hope these aren't Y2k replacement satelites.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:18
The Hatt (Russia is just the start, wait until the derivitives begin unwinding!) ID#369369:
This market has not seen panic yet as there has been no mention of derivitives yet! I fully expect Russia to announce total debt default and kiss America goodbye.... Asia, specifically Japan is next to fall and that in itself would dwarf economic reactions around the world. Canada raises interest rates by one percent and the loonie continues to fall!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:17
Goldteck (Bill Gates' strong-arm business tactics are once again in the spotlight. ) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
One report asserts that Microsoft used fake error messages in an effort to sabotage a rival operating system.
BEWARE GATES-KEEPER
By MARY HUHN
Bill Gates' strong-arm business tactics are once again in the spotlight.

One report asserts that Microsoft used fake error messages in an effort to sabotage a rival operating system.

The plan was to trick users into thinking that they couldn't run Microsoft's popular Windows 3.1 program - in the hopes that consumers would abandon the rival DR DOS, according to the author of a new book on the software giant.

We should surely crash the system, wrote Microsoft Vice President David Cole in a memo to other senior executives at Microsoft about how to scuttle a competing operating system. The memo was obtained by Wendy Goldman Rohm, whose forthcoming book, The Microsoft File: The Secret Case Against Bill Gates, will be published by Random House Sept. 8.

Rohm's allegations come at the same time that published reports say the federal government is investigating Microsoft's role in Intel Corp.'s business decisions.

Neither of the reports, however, managed to put a dent into Microsoft shares. Microsoft was down to 112916. Intel Corp. closed at 83, down 1131632.

The memo that forms the basis for Rohm's allegations is part of the evidence the Justice Department has collected under subpoena to prove that the software giant's business practices are monopolistic and predatory, according to an article written by the author for Red Herring Online ( www.redherring.com ) .

60 Minutes is doing a segment on the book for its fall premiere.

Part of the book will also be entered into evidence for the upcoming antitrust trial, due to start Sept. 23.

The latest federal investigation also centers on a memo - as reported yesterday by The New York Times - this one written by an Intel executive.

According to that memo, Bill Gates and Intel Chairman Andy Grove met in August 1995 because Gates was livid about Intel's investment in the Internet and wanted them stopped.

The investigators are pursuing additional evidence that might be added to the antitrust suit, which was filed by the Justice Department and 20 states, including New York.

Rohm's Red Herring piece says the evidence from the Justice Department, which includes the memos about Windows 3.1, has never been made public before.

The messages were written by Microsoft employees between September 1991 and February 1992, while Microsoft shipped a Christmas beta of Windows 3.1 that included code to detect an alien operating system, said Cole's memo.

If another operating system was detected, such as DR DOS by Digital Research, it would show a fake error message.

Microsoft removed the warning from the final version, but only after thousands of beta copies had gone out, said Red Herring.

But in documents, Cole suggested making Windows 3.1 malfunction if it detected DR DOS.

Executives also discussed how to conceal the sabotaging code from the press and hide these efforts from the public at large, said Red Herring. In particular, it needed to hide it from customers who would call Microsoft for technology support. Microsoft would blame Digital Research's operating system.

In February 1992, Senior Vice President Brad Silverberg, responding to Cole in regards to preventing rival products from running well with Windows, wrote: The most sensible thing from the development standpoint is to continue to build dependencies on MS-DOS into Windows.

Microsoft's legal team, for its part, denies that the memos are proof of anticompetitive practices, according to Red Herring.

Asked to comment about the secret memos, Mark Murray, a Microsoft spokesman, said to Red Herring's Rohm: It's unfortunate that these kinds of tired, old accusations are being made again, seven years after the fact. All of these allegations were investigated fully by the ^Federal Trade Commission_ and the DOJ in the early 1990s, and both agencies found these accusations groundless.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:17
skinny (Selby) ID#28994:
Bloomberg television........ now posting down $3.60

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:17
FOX-MAN__A (sam_a; Thanks for your comments. Silver appears to be holding steady at) ID#288186:
the moment ( fingers crossed ) . Gold, on the other hand, is tanking.
I may be stupid, but I added another Feb Gold position this morn.
at 285.00///If it all goes to hell ( yep, it's possible ) , then I'll
be out completely at 281.00 ( per Feb. contract ) .

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:14
Selby (skinny) ID#286230:
Could you post the location of your spot gold price?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:14
sharefin (Sign of the times.) ID#284255:
YEAR 2000 PROBLEMS HIT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS - INSURANCE, MEDICAID AND WORKER'S COMP FRAUD - COMPUTERS CANNOT HANDLE IT - STUDY FINDS
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/August1998/21/c4158.html


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:07
skinny (In The Ditch) ID#28994:
Gold...........$278.65

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:06
vronsky (DOW 8300 BY AUGUST 21st? ….only 76 points to go!) ID#426220:
Copyright © 1998 vronsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Analyst George Ure MADE this audacious prediction more than 600 DOW points ago! And as I speak this morning the DOW is in FREEFALL, already down 147 points ( @8376 ) at only 10AM - with 6 grinding hours to go to see if URE prediction is correct -- albeit one week late.

Specifically, he forecasted that the DOW will plummet to
the 8300 area WITHIN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS.

Good ( but indeed sad ) Call , Mr. Ure.

The basis of his dramatic forecast is a Chart correlation between two periods: 1920 to 1929 and 1988 to 1998. Mr. Ure doesn't mince words. He flatly states: Bull Market Dead!

Whether you agree or not, his report is thought-provoking - and therefore should be read by prudent investors.

REPLAYING 1929 FOUR WEEKS TO 8300 may be seen at the URL below. It
will be necessary to delete the extra letters en in the word golden before posting the URL to your Internet locator:

http://www.golden-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/ure072798.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:06
Mtn Bear (SE) (News:) ID#347267:
Copyright © 1998 Mtn Bear (SE)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
From CNN:
Attorney General Janet Reno has approved a 90-day investigation into the 1996 fund-raising activities of Vice President Al Gore, sources told CNN Wednesday. The 90-day probe was triggered under the Independent Counsel statute to determine whether there is specific and credible evidence to determine if laws have been violated. Senior law enforcement officials emphasize the inquiry does not mean Reno will decide to seek the appointment of an independent counsel to investigate the vice president.
and:
Scott Ritter, the leader of a U.N. weapons inspection team in Iraq, resigned Wednesday, saying the United Nations' inaction against Iraqi intransigence had left the inspection program an illusion. In a sharply worded resignation letter sent to the U.N.'s chief weapons inspector, Richard Butler, Ritter criticized the Security Council for not taking stronger action against Iraq's recent decision to suspend cooperation with U.N. inspectors.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 10:03
sam__A (@jims, FOX-MAN re your Wednesday @ 17:29 - COMEX Stocks) ID#286253:
Copyright © 1998 sam__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

No one doubts there are substantially greater stocks held in London, etc. But as I have said here many times, the amount of effective available stocks _must_ be quite low if a puny one billion $ purchase drives up lease rates to 70%; again: it's like selling 1 billion worth bonds and seeing yields skyrocket - not even in Russia is this happening!

But apparently there has been considerable physical coughed up, perhaps esp. in the lease market -- suppose Buffet lent out his entire stash? That's one year deficit that can be covered ( although that's 120 million ounces more short. ) I know a fund manager who sold, during the days of severe backwardation, 10 million ozs spot ( he had it in the vault ) and bought 10 million ozs forward. Stuff like this coughs up physical and depresses lease rates.

Yes - there are just about zero Palladium reserves on surface ( I hear the Russians have about one-half years production on hand. ) But also consider that there is no outstanding palladium short position. Silver, on the other hand, faces a short position that _might_ approximate on-surface reserves. That's huge and significant.

But right now I am a little worried - trying to lighten up on the spikes, but not doing very well. If this delivery session is boring ( and it looks like to might be - the Sept-Dec spread is normal ) there could be blood. Someone said here before that the silver market is manipulated - couldn't agree with this more. But one day the spring will be released and we'll have our day. If it makes you feel any better, long term lease rates are about equal to $US rates - ( look at the Dec '98 & the Dec'99 spreads - they are flat ) and this foretells an end to the leasing jig. And as soon as this happens, the endgame will be underway and unstoppable.

Hang in there, guys!

sam__a.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:45
kitkat (@Bart) ID#208393:
Please give the quotes a boot. Today may be the start of something.
Fellow posters, your predictions are coming true. The timing on gold is just a little off. Go Gold!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:45
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
ROR -- It has been claimed that nothing in politics happens by accident.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:42
ALBERICH__A (Financial Crisis: Russia and the German Banks) ID#212197:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm getting the impression that the German Government under Kohl is being taught a hard and well desrved lesson for their reckless financial behaviour of the past. Almost all the credits which German banks threw into this bottomless barrel, leaving it basically up to the IMF to define frame terms and conditions, are guaranteed by the government. The taxpayers will have to pat for it. However, these $30 billion will not finish them off, I guess.

The most important lesson to be leared, IMHO, is, that capitalism can only be adopted in these former communist countries, by what I call grass-root capitalism. It should have started with giving the farmers back their own land. One third of the food produced in the former SU came from 3% of land, which was worked and cultivated privately by the workers on the big state farms. It's still not too late for this, even though things seem almost hopeless in Russia.

I always enjoy reading Doug Casey's newsletter, The International Speculator. He describes in his most recent issue his impressions from his expedition to Russia in a drastcally realistic way. This country will go down the drain. What shocked me most was his desciption how they used to mine gold. This was a completely slave based economy. The gold mines, like all the other major mining industries, were based on the work of slaves. Now, the slaves are gone. What can we expect? Russia has nothing to sell what the world market would need, except raw material. How can you mine raw material without adequate technology? With slaves. They are gone. They prefer a miserable life without work to a slave work without pay. that's probably the major reason why the completely rotten Moskovite bureaucracy is outraged the the Sibirian miners ask for payment. They are not used to pay them. They are used to receive money from Siberia. That's now also history.

When I compare in my mind the fact, that the economy in Byzanz, the Second Rome, was completely oriented and working along the needs of the military machine, then I ask myself: what's the real difference between the economy of Moscow's Sowjet Union, the Third Rome's empire, and the bureaucratic terror state of Konstantinopel/Byzanz ? Both got their slaves from the huge population of the endlessly huge Russia. Both had an efficient military machine for a while. That's now all history. There won't be a Fourth Rome, ever. I hope.

following Doug Casey's description I assume that Russia will go down the drain. The German banks will lose their $30 billion. The German taxpayers will pay. Makes things a little bit shakier in old Europe. But this one will not finish off the German economy. The $70 billion, which German banks have lend to Asia are a different story. That could really hurt.

I want to finish this little report with the remark that almost throughout all information I'm reading and hearing in the US give me the impression that Americans in general take Russia economically and financially much too serious. Russia is an economic and financial dwarf.

I don't say that just because I understand a lot about dwarfs myself.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:40
Mtn Bear (SE) (WJK) ID#347267:
Just to take your minds off the markets:
Lucienne Goldberg:
But the danger will be over soon, Mrs Goldberg says, because Bill Clinton is now irretrievably ruined. The moment he went out and gave that speech, he swallowed his strontium-90. It rots you from inside, slowly. It may take weeks, it may take months, but you might as well pack your bags because there's nothing you can do to stop it.
http://www.drudgereport.com/ Go to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:38
Selby (Spot Gold) ID#286230:
Kitco is still showing yesterdays news. Can someone give us a URL for spot gold?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:34
sharefin (Oldmans call) ID#284255:
Was it a close below SP 1061?

8 Pts to go?
And stay below.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:32
Gollum (DOW -113) ID#43185:
First ten minutes. Maybe I can hit Mach 3!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:22
sharefin (Gollum - GCZ8 = $282) ID#284255:
Damn the Dow
Grab the controls on gold!!!

Gold or bonds?
What to shift into?

Such a hard choice!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:22
Gollum (Air show) ID#43185:
I believe we'll open the ceremonies with a power dive and pull out directly over the crowd at Mach 2. That should get their attention!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:20
panda (Tort, Gollum) ID#30116:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Kitco getting real slow now. Gold falling. I've been 'dollar cost averaging' in here... I hope I know what I'm doing? Perhaps I've been watching too many 'Pinky and the Brain' cartoons. I'm begining to think that I want to take over the gold mining industry, just like the Brain wants to take over the world ( They are both mice. Brain is a genetically altered intelligent mouse and Pinkey is a ... mentally challenged mouse. ) ... :- ) ) NAARFFF! as Pinkey would say...

P.S.
09:22 MEXICAN PESO OPEN LOWER, TRADING AT 9.87/9.8799 PER DOLLAR.

BBML....... I can't watch sausages nor laws being made. And today, the market.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:08
panda (The mornings highlites......) ID#30116:
From the CBS MarketWatch page…..

09:06 BANK OF CANADA SAYS RATE HIKE TO SUPPORT CAN DOLLAR, BOLSTER CONFIDENCE.
9:02 CANADIAN DOLLAR JUMPS ON RATE HIKE, DOLLAR NOW AT CANADIAN $1.5590.
09:02 BANK OF CANADA BANK RATE RISES TO 6%.
09:02 BANK OF CANADA CONFIRMS RATE INCREASE; NEW BAND 5.5% TO 6%. 08:31 IMPORTS RISE 10% Q2 AFTER RISING 15.7% Q1.
08:31 EXPORTS FALL 7.4% Q2 AFTER FALLING 2.8% Q1.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:07
Tortfeasor (Panda) ID#37463:
I agree with you. The strong dollar is strong mostly because it is propping up other currencies, not necessary because our economy is strong. If we start importing foreign goods then our local economies are going to falter. When the US dollar gets dumped we are going to be awash in greenbacks; hence big time inflation. This talk of deflation will be just so much hot air. What we are seeing now, methinks, is just a blip which should clear itself out very shortly. Today is going to be ugly in the US markets. The time has come to pay the piper.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:07
Rack (Donald-thank you! I don't even read the paper anymore.EOM) ID#402131:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:06
Gollum (@panda) ID#43185:
Perhaps this isn't about the US but rather the owners of the Fed. The Rothshilds, and Morgans, and Warburgs, oh my!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:04
Reify (Some thoughts and comments) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:16
Donald ( Malaysia announces decision to print money in attempt to avoid deflation. ) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980826/malaysia_e_4.html
----------------------------
It's this sort of thing I've been mentioning from time to time, when y'all discuss inflation vs. deflation.

My point has always been consistant, if not boring, and that based on the past and present scenario
of world wide debt, which eventually has to be monetized, we can expect the worst of both worlds,
and that is an inflationary depression. As contradictory as that may sound, think of Germany in the
late teens and early twenties, and you'll get the picture. I have my parents and grandparents paper
monies ( samples ) from as early as the turn of the century through the 1923 period when it all hit the
fan for real ( Hyperinflation ) .
The above is an example of how this sort of thing might start. Governments, in order to avoid a recession
depression, or deflation, print, print and continue the process. HYPERINFLATION et voila!
--------------
Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:10
Mike Sheller ( JTF ) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Not to in any way impugn Donald's thinking ( which has been brilliant, sound, and typically unrepresentative
of dwellers across the L. I. Sound on the mainland ) - BUT - how can we call it deflationary if all this
ruckus is being caused by countries ( Indonesia, other Asian tigres, Russia, perhaps soon Japan, certainly
Mexico & Latin America, who are all experiencing periodic, dramatic, and systematic DEvaluations of their
currencies - making money all over the world worth LESS in terms of real things ?
All a result of the over-creation or infusion of credit money. I am not being contentious - I am really struggling
with this thought. Actually, RELATIVE to this phenomenon, the U.S. dollar is deflating - becoming more and
more valuable relative to other currencies and stuff. Is this because the $US is the paper of last resort? Can
the buck buck the trend? Will the strong dollar carry its own death sentence and self destruct at the hands of
the print-meisters? This is a ( nother ) crucial moment in financial history, seems to me.
To friend Mike, I would answer affirmatively.
-----------------------
Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:03
Auric ( Bomb in Tel Aviv Kills One, Injures 10 ) ID#255151:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a562142.htm======== This boys and girls, is what is commonly
known in these here parts as the
PEACE
PROCESS forgive me for not laughing.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:04
6pak (Russia @ Coalition - Communist & Our Home is Russia) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
BUMPS ALONG ROAD TO COALITION
Two Duma factions have put up at least some resistance to
Chernomyrdin's bid to form a coalition government. Yabloko
deputy Sergei Ivanenko told Interfax on 25 August that Yabloko
will not hold talks on membership in the Chernomyrdin
government. According to Ivanenko, the results of Chernomyrdin's
prior work in government were pitiable. The same day, Viktor
Ilyukhin, chairman of the Duma's Security Committee and member
of the Communist Party, threatened that unless at least 10
ministerial posts are allotted to left opposition groups,
Chernomyrdin will not be confirmed even under the threat of
dissolution. JAC

OUR HOME IS RUSSIA SUBMITS WISHLIST,
BLACKLIST
Our Home is Russia ( NDR ) faction leader Aleksandr Shokhin said
that the NDR expects to place six to seven people in the cabinet.
He revealed that his name was floated for possible inclusion in the
cabinet in discussions with Chernomyrdin but that no final decision
was reached. NDR Deputy Chairman Georgii Boos told Interfax
that NDR also drew up a list of people who must not be included
in the government. Among these names were Chubais, Nemtsov,
financial magnate Boris Berezovskii, former Minister of Economy
Yevgenii Yasin, Central Bank chief Sergei Dubinin, Finance
Minister Mikhail Zadornov, State Tax Service head Fedorov, and
former Deputy Prime Minister Ivan Rybkin. JAC
http://www.rferl.org/newsline/3-cee.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:04
panda (Globex looking ugly, especially NDX....) ID#30116:
http://www.cme.com/cgi-bin/gflash.cgi

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:03
Gollum (@Tantalus__A ) ID#43185:
...And maybe a Hail Mary too....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:01
Donald (@Mike Sheller: Repost of mine from December 27, 1997. Inflation-Deflation) ID#26793:
Copyright © 1998 Donald/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
December 27, 1997


Digdeep made a good point last night about total holdings of Central Banks being 35,000 tons and having a total value of $340 billion at current prices. There was a lot of discussion about what the price of gold would be in the future with numbers offered from $250 to $30,000 per ounce. I have always tried to ignore gold price discussion and prefer to talk about the value of gold.

The price is different to each person on the site depending on his home currency. The value of gold is something to which we can all relate. How many ounces to buy a Chevy, or an acre of farmland, or a loaf of bread, that is what we all hope to do with our gold at some point isn't it?

As Greenspan said only a month or two ago, governments have the ability to print unlimited amounts of currency and the general feeling on this site is that they will do that. Those of you who feel that way I place in the inflationist camp. There is a smaller group here who think that deflation is in the future. I belong in that group and I would like to take the point made by Digdeep and the point made by Greenspan to try and prove the deflationist case.

Digdeep says the gold is worth $340 billion. Greenspan says we can print unlimited amounts of cash. So why doesn't Korea, or any other country solve its problem by doing that today. Start the presses rolling tonight; print $340 billion worth of Korean won and buy all the gold on hand. The reason they do not is because they know that no one will sell it to them. I won't sell mine, you won't sell yours and Greenspan won't sell his.

All of us, Greenspan included, KNOW THAT THE VALUE OF THE GOLD IS WORTH MORE THAN THE $340 BILLION CURRENT PRICE. We are right back to that price versus value point I made earlier.

Now let us take the argument further. Greenspan says that governments have the ability to print unlimited amounts of cash. Is he correct? If his statement is true why did Korea not print won in unlimited amounts to solve its problem? The answer is that Korean won can only be spent in Korea. The won can not be used to pay bills that come due in dollars. Korea needs oil and other commodities that are not available locally and it has borrowed dollars, not won. While it is true they can print unlimited amounts of won it is useless to do so for things purchased abroad. The same argument holds for any other country except the United States. How then can Korea obtain dollars to pay for its imports? It can only build products that can be sold for dollars. To do so it must compete by offering better products at a lower dollar cost than other countries that also need dollars. Just as the United States has for years been said to have exported inflation; countries around the world will begin to export deflation.

I think that automobiles make the cleanest deflation example. The devaluation of the Korean won by 50% in recent weeks allows them to literally cut the price of the car in half in dollar terms while booking the same price in terms of the Korean won. This is not good news for Detroit. Products of American car manufacturers now become overpriced both here and abroad. American automobile workers face layoffs reducing their ability to purchase even the half-priced imports from Korea. Some will lose their homes. Those homes will be sold into a declining real estate market along with the homes of other downsized auto workers. Downsized and laid off workers no longer qualify for credit and often are forced into bankruptcy. Losses by banks due to failed mortgages and defaulted credit card customers cause them to tighten credit standards. Those tightened credit standards further reduce the ability of the public to purchase the now half-priced Korean cars. Korea, under pressure for more dollars, reduces the price even further either by a new currency devaluation or reducing the pay of local Korean auto workers or both. Thus the spiral downward continues into another cycle of still deeper deflation.

I do not expect the UAW or the American Automobile Manufacturers to stand idly by while this happens. We will hear calls for a cheaper dollar and import quotas or a total ban on imports. Let me accept the point of the inflationists and agree that the dollar will be cheapened by printing. How will these new dollars be delivered to the people who need them? World Trade Organization rules, originally demanded by the U.S., forbid a subsidy by any government to the auto manufacturer. We will not pack them in a box and ship them to the needy former auto worker.

I can think of no way to do it. If a way could be devised the foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities, the same ones who sold gold to invest in U.S. Treasuries will begin to sell treasuries. Interest rates will rise as Treasury competes with other borrowers by offering higher interest rates. As credit card rates and adjustable mortgage rates rise it causes more defaults and foreclosures by those at the margin. Distressed properties hit the market and prices decline during a glut of foreclosures. Again, even though an attempt was made to inflate, deflation is the result.

As I said the other day, gold competes with interest rates. How much do they have to offer you in interest to give up your gold? The answer, as in the earlier argument, depends on where you are and what currency you use. It also depends on the credit quality of the person, corporation or government who wants to entice you to give up your gold. You must always remember that is the choice you are making. Gold pays no interest but provides ultimate safety. Offers of interest are nothing more than enticements to give up your gold. That is as true today as it has ever been. It doesn't matter if you are an individual or a Central Bank.

The holder of gold does not need to think about whether the future is inflationary or deflationary. He is concerned with value, not with price. Price only introduces an annoying tax consideration when the gold holder is ready to convert his gold to the Chevy, the farmland, or the loaf of bread. If he has experienced an increase in price he owes taxes. If there was a decline in price he has a tax credit. Whatever the outcome, inflation or deflation, the value of the gold is constant.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 09:00
panda (A strong dollar?) ID#30116:
How long do we in the U.S. maintain this strong dollar? Until we destroy our internal manufacturing capacity? That would surely be an unpopular thing. Then again, if this is an 'economic world war', what if we win and have the strongest currency only to be unemployed? Yes, we rapidly reach the point of no return. The abyss awaits. Oh my, so deep and dark!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:59
Silverbaron (A little levity to open the market) ID#289357:
Copyright © 1998 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


The President takes the day off work to elude the press corps and Hillary. He decides to go out golfing. Bill gives the slip away from the Secret Service guys and ends up, unrecognized, at a small public course in Maryland. He is on the second hole when he notices a frog sitting next to the green. He thinks nothing of it and is about to shoot when he hears,

Ribbit, 9 iron.

The President looks around and doesn’t see anyone.

Ribbit, 9 iron.

He looks at the frog and decides to prove the frog wrong, puts his club away and grabs his 9 iron. Boom! He hits it 10 inches from the cup.

He is shocked. He says to the frog,

Wow, that’s amazing. You must be a lucky frog, eh?

The frog replies, Ribbit, lucky frog.

The President decides to take the frog with him to the next hole.

What do you think, frog? the President asks.

Ribbit, 3 wood.

Bill takes out a 3 wood and WHAM!, hole in one.

The President is befuddled and doesn’t know what to say. By the end of the day, the President golfed the best game of golf in his life and asks the frog, OK, where to next?

The frog replies, Ribbit, Las Vegas.

They go to Andrews AFB and fire up Air Force One, file for clearance direct to Las Vegas, and arrive at 4 AM, still unnoticed, at a casino.

Bill says, OK frog, now what?

The frog says, Ribbit, roulette.

Upon approaching the roulette table, the President asks, What do you think I should bet?

The frog replies, Ribbit, $300,000, black, 6.

Now, this is a million-to-one shot to win, but after the golf game, Clinton figures what the heck. Whoosh! Tons of cash comes sliding back across the table.

The President takes his winnings and his new buddy, First Frog ( FF ) , and heads back to DC. Bill sets the FF on a cushion on his desk in the Oval Office and says,

Frog, I don’t know how to repay you. You’ve won me all this money, and I and the Democratic National Committee are forever grateful.

The frog replies, Ribbit, kiss me.

Bill figures, why not? Since after all the frog did for him, he deserves it. With a kiss, the frog turns into a gorgeous 25-year-old woman.

AND THAT, MR. STARR, IS HOW SHE ENDED UP IN MY OFFICE.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:58
Allen(USA) (Steve in To) ID#255190:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

If the denarius was 2.9 grams then it was 0.093 troy ounces. At 90% that would be 0.084 tr oz silver, or 46 cents US. Daily wage in the USA at turn of this century was $1.00 silver coin, so this seems to be in the ballpark. Wages jumped by an order of magnitude when Henry Ford started paying his employees $1 per hour ( he wanted his own employees to be able to afford to buy his products, thereby increasing his market potential ) .

Now if the Denarius was 29 grams, then I can see your math as being correct.

My impresssion is that ancient coinage was pretty small, so tend to think the 2.9 gram figure is the more correct one.

Thoughts?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:58
Gollum (Getting their wish) ID#43185:
I have good news for all those whose only wish was to break Disney's law...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:55
FOX-MAN__A (Dec Comex Gold has hit a low of 281.80, so far...) ID#288186:
#Bottom nearing!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:54
Tantalus__A (Maybe time for a Bloody Mary. Spot POG $278.35) ID#374204:

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:54
panda (Check out the 8:30 numbers, yup, a matter of time...) ID#30116:
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/headlines.htx?source=core/dbc

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:52
ROR (Woody) ID#412286:
They all are commies read http://www.fatima.org/perestoi.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:52
Gollum (Gollum A&A) ID#35571:
Gollum Aerolines has had a restructuring and name change. We have acquired several high performance jet fighter aircraft and are proudly changing our name to Gollum aerolines and Aerobatics.
Today we will be giving some free demo rides in one our sleek new beauties. No more will ones only option be a prosaic glide over the countryside. Now you can have thrills and chills galore!
I think you'll agree the thrill is worth the price!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:50
panda (FWIW column) ID#30116:
Copyright © 1998 panda/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I had an interesting conversation with a person who wanted to 'invest for retirement'. Without belaboring the details, this person wanted to go in to the markets. I explained the dangers as well as the possibilities. This took an hour and a half to do. The person did not want me to leave because they had so many questions and many of my explanations ran counter to the perceived 'general wisdom' of today's thinking. The net result was, Now I'm afraid to invest my meager savings..., to which I replied, Fear is a good thing, if you enter the markets without it, you are a fool or have inside information. The idea is to invest monies that you CAN AFFORD to lose. Examine your options carefully, place your money on the table, and spin the wheel.... :- ) )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:48
Tantalus__A (Yipes - Spot POG just posted on Bloomberg TV @ 279.75 $US ) ID#374204:

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:48
Mtn Bear (SE) (Gollum Air) ID#347267:
One needs GREAT BALLS OF STEEL to fly today!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:45
Mtn Bear (SE) (Shepler) ID#347267:
Old Gold was posting contents of Shepler Market Timer. Anyone have 'net site or email address for Shepler? TIA

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:43
SDRer__A (Something IS really wrong--) ID#290172:

Maria B just articulated BAD news…and giggled…
Away with fresh coffee to watch the sunrise...bbl

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:43
sharefin (Gollum) ID#284255:
A bit of turbulance out there.
Better double up on the free drinks.

http://weather.yahoo.com/graphics/satellite/east_usa_loop.html


Safe flying.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:42
Steve in TO__A (Oops- wrong silver prices) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
In my previous denarius post, the price of silver should have been $4.98/oz. and the silver value of the denarius would today be about $4.10!

Anyhow, given that a denarius in the 1st century would buy goods worth approximately $90 today, we can say that the relative value of silver has dropped considerably. Possibly due to all the great silver finds in the New World.

The same thing was happening in the US in the 19th century. The country was on a gold and silver standard, but the huge silver finds in the western territories caused the value of silver to drop relative to that of gold, causing people to prefer gold coins as a store of value.

- Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:35
Steve in TO__A (Denarius coins) ID#287337:
Copyright © 1998 Steve in TO__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the Roman silver coin named in Revelation 6:5-6 last evening, the Denarius, weiged approximately 2.9 grams ( 0.92 Troy Oz. ) When John the Apostle wrote his book, the denarius was approximately 90% silver. By the time of the Fall of the Roman Empire it's silver content had shrunk to 1%.

If we assume a 90% silver content, the denarius contained 0.83 Troy Oz. of silver. At the current price of US$0.498, that would make the silver content of the denarius worth about $0.41!

That doesn't tell the whole story, though. Silver had a much greater relative value in ancient times. It was much scarcer than it is now.

In terms of purchasing power, in the first century the denarius was worth approximately US$90 - US$100 in 1998 real dollars.

If a man wanted to hire a labourer he might go down to the market where men needing work would congregate and offer him one denarius for a day's work digging or harvesting crops.

- Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:34
Woody__A (Commies Back) ID#243166:
Heard a rumor that Yeltsin is out and Commies are back ( at least partially ) . If this is true this is a MEGA negative for U.S. markets that nobody expected. Any comments?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:34
panda (Mike Sheller @ 07:10) ID#30116:
YES! The answer is the currencies. Deflation appears to be the case to us because of the dollars strength. This cannot last. Inflation will result as the dollar weakens. If the dollar conntinues its' strong ways, U.S. manufacturing/export will be severely damaged. Inflation it is. Just wait...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:29
SDRer__A (This just over the transom.) ID#286249:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Rather scary if my read is accurate; the government has garnered for itself the right to designate anyone who speaks ill of the government a terrorist. Am I being an alarmist?

----The New Face of Terrorism
A classified Justice Department report describes a new breed of violent
domestic terrorists as individuals who are inspired by, but not
affiliated with, terrorist groups, thus making them harder to identify and stop.
The profile was developed to aid federal law enforcement agencies combating domestic terrorism.
We are seeing three, four, five new cases every year of people who have
links to white supremacist groups, who talk the race-hating,
anti-government rhetoric, and who ended up plotting or committing
violent acts, Robert M. Blitzer, head of the FBI's domestic counter-terrorism section, has been quoted as saying. He added, these are usually rootless guys with a high level of frustration in their lives who go out on their own. They have access to firearms and explosives and are prepared to use them. For us, it is a real challenge to stay ahead of them.

The lone terrorist is now considered to be the most dangerous domestic
terrorism threat, according to FBI, Justice Department, and other
counter-terrorist authorities. Experts describe a marked increase in
acts of violence committed by a single individual or by small cells of people operating without any apparent organized guidance. Since 1994, when domestic terrorism by rightwing hate groups was recognized as becoming a legitimized and growing threat, domestic counter-terrorism has become one of the fastest-growing areas of federal law enforcement.
In response to the 1995 bombing of the federal building in Oklahoma
City, Attorney General Janet Reno revised guidelines governing the conduct of domestic terrorism investigations, granting federal law enforcement officers greater authority to open cases, recruit informants, and use other aggressive investigative techniques. In addition, an interagency command center was established to work closely with the CIA's Counter-terrorism Center and the counter-terrorism assets in the Department of Defense.

Given the background that terrorism of the 60's and 70's was frequently
guided and organized, counter-terrorism officials today are confounded
by trying to ascertain whether an act is singular and undirected or the
result of a larger conspiracy. FBI and other counter-terrorism officials point to evidence that, at least domestically, leaders of organized hate groups like the Ku Klux Klan, Army of God, and the Aryan Nations promote leaderless resistance in order to confuse governmental investigators.
Current hate group literature often advises followers to rethink
traditional strategy and tactics when it comes to opposing state
tyranny, noting that government investigators can easily penetrate groups with a clear chain of command. Consequently, it becomes the responsibility of the individual to acquire the necessary skills and information as to what is to be done ... No one need issue an order to anyone. Those idealists truly committed to the cause of freedom will act when they feel the time is ripe, or will take their cue from others who precede them.

One piece of literature connected to the Klan and to the Aryan Nations
states, it goes almost without saying that leaderless resistance leads
to very small or even one-man cells of resistance.
http://www.dso.com/






Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:29
jims (So African golds rise on fall of Rand) ID#252391:
The So. African rebound, minor that it is, is based in part certainly on the fall of the Rand to 6.60 to the dolar. The rate was 6.36 earlier in the session and just fell to the 6.60 level. This is not good for gold in the short term as when the rand fell to this level not too long ago the press stated that the south african mines were incereasing theri gold sales.

The Press may not need reason to depress gold currently as there seem to be plenty.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:28
panda (Spock (Spiralling Down........)) ID#30116:
What the world needs is HONEST MONEY not financial controls on the flow of money. It's too easy for governments to cheat everyone with the 'game' as it is currently setup. Most people assume that they are dealing with a 'fixed currency' and all else moves with regard to their 'money', tis not so.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:24
John Disney__A (RSA ..situation) ID#24135:
to all as of 2:45 pm here ..
Jse all share off 7% after about
that yesterday .. Golds up slightly
about 1 % .. BUT rand is at 6.60 ..
bond yields are up to 19.5 per cent
with the inflation rate between 6 and
7 per cent ..
The gold price is about 1850 rand/oz
this is weird.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:13
ROR (Perestroika Deception ) ID#412286:
A must read in light of events in Russia... http://www.fatima.org/perestoi.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:10
ROR (CNBC) ID#412286:
Costello announced that there are meetings in the Kremlin between Chernomydin and Communist Party members. Rumor he said is Yeltsin retains some power but that they revert to a Soviet style system with re nationalization of some industry...Wall st will no doubt latch on to this to rally em based on stability returning to Russia.

Article in Financial Times yesterday stated that preventing a Depression depended on keeping high flying stocks flying high indefinitely. PPT anyone?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:07
Gollum (@Mike Sheller ) ID#35571:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
As you so aptly point out, deflation is a relative kind of thing. One can easily have inflation in some country at the same time there is no inflation or even deflation in some other part of the world.
To really discuss inflation/deflation one has to first of define what he means. Some people confuse expanding money supply with inflation. This causes much confusion at times because the thing the Fed is talking about when they say they are controlling inflation is not the money supply but rather wage/price inflation.
Price-inflation is determined by the amount of currency, the monetary, velocity, and the amount of goods and services being chased by the available currency ( please forgive me for this pedantic discussion of things I know you are thorougly familiar with. I just want to clarify terms for some who might otherwise be confused ) . If we can agree that what we are discussing when we use the terms inflation and deflation is direction of change in wage/price levels then you are quite right.
There is widespread inflation in the world today. Globaly the world has a net reccesionary stance. Money that would otherwise have been invested in local economies has fled to the US. Countries devalue and expand local money supply in an effort to stimulate their flagging economies, but to no avail. Locally prices inflate.
In the US the economy is strong and the dollar has become scarce relative to the number of goods and services available as foreign goods flood to the buyer of last resort. So in the US we see deflation.
IN just the same manner that a hurricane is powered by hot water moving to the eye of the storm, so the world financial chaos is powered by hot money flowing out of foreign countries and into treasuries and under mattresses. The Fed soaks up the currency so even though money supply appears to be high the amount actually circulating ( velocity ) is not so high. If the Fed were not doing this ( controlling inflation ) then we would see inflation here too because of foreign investment.
We are the eye of the storm. To us it seems pretty calm. High employment, low inflation, and life is good for Joe Sixpack.
There are limits.
Eventually total collapses occur, the water tops the levee and all hell breaks lose.
Interesting times, eh?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 08:07
HopeFull (AG likes unexpected moves.......) ID#402148:
he is smart, he cuts rates within weeks. He held them up to long in l990 and scared himself.

HB

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:53
JIN (Hungary down 14.38%!Eastern block..!ohhhhhh..) ID#206358:
take care!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:52
lakshmi__A (J-Burg Down 6.2% Wednesday, any news from SA?) ID#26350:
Copyright © 1998 lakshmi__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Per the WSJ: The bear hugs Johannesburg exchange, any news from there today?
Also from the bear's corner: Will Russia dump more commodities now that the banks are bellying up? It's almost too quiet there...you can almost feel the US dollar black market growing...a Russian pawnshop franchise might be good...trying to imagine what business or opportunity to buy into in a devaluing world...what will create or be the wealth opportunity of the New Millenium? Steve Hanke suggested a parallel double money system, both the dollar and the ruble in the Reussian economy, such as they have had in past periods of chaos.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:46
Speed (Johannesburg gold turned up nicely....) ID#29048:
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^JGAI&d=1d


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:39
Gollum (Todays flight) ID#35571:
Today we will be flying a high performance fighter aircraft! Steep dives and full afterburner straight up climbs. Real action! Sign up now for one hellofaride on Gollum Airlines ( and Aerobatics ) .

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:34
Tortfeasor (Gold thoughts) ID#37463:
Copyright © 1998 Tortfeasor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Its hard to visualize gold being sold by Europeans because it had reached a two year high, all because the currence has depreciated against the dollar. It only proved you guys on here that require a dropping dollar before gold will rise have known your stuff all along. Interesting indeed. Its too bad I have all these paper losses ( I'm not selling anything metals related ) from all this newfound knowledge. It looks like another direct hit today both to my metals value. I suspect I am not going to get hit as hard as those in the paper markets. Well I am off to walk and mentally ruminate on all this bad news. More later.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:27
Donald (@Mike Sheller) ID#26793:
Because the recent years of inflation have been caused primarily by credit inflation; monetary inflation has been miniscule in comparison to the credit expansion. Credit is now contracting around the world at a far greater rate than monetary expansion, thus deflation is the result.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:23
APH (ABC corrections) ID#255226:
If you want to see a nice looking ABC correction, take a look at the daily Feb Pork Bellies. This is what the SnP chart should look like in a few weeks. Using the PB chart as a model, the B wave retracement on the SnP may already be in and the C wave is underway with a projection of 950 or lower.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:23
JTF (Deflation vs inflation -- ) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Mike S.: I agree that history is in the making. When I said deflation, I should have said US dollar deflation. It will not be long before gold is rising in all currencies with the exception of the US dollar, and perhaps one other. I think this happened with the British pound sterling before it collapsed as the world's currency.

I don't really think this is a worldwide conspiracy as some would say, but only the inevitable sequence of events. The problem is, most people -- even Europeans these days -- are accustomed to trade with 'fiat' currency in their daily affairs, not precious metals. So -- during times of crisis they rush for the currency considered to be the most stable -- at the moment, the US dollar. Must be a corollary of Gresham's law.

But -- eventually even the US dollar will be seen for what it is. And -- the use of gold as currency in the hands of the public will return -- to the consternation of the fiat currency crowd, who may feel that they must do something drastic.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:18
jims (Debt default the new voque) ID#252391:
Debt default could become the thing to do. If one country after another does it the thing will snow ball. No longer to big to let fail but to big to save. Big downside to the default movement: there will be an end to unsecured debt and a contraction in money supply further leading to deflation and depression.

Man . . . where's the happy ending. . . . I'm going back to TV . . .this is to gloomy here in reality.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:16
Donald (Malaysia announces decision to print money in attempt to avoid deflation.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980826/malaysia_e_4.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:13
JTF (Logging off -- BOE buys Canadian dollars ) ID#57232:
All: And what just what might the Bank of England be selling to protect the Canadian dollar? None other than the US dollar. When South America gets closer to the brink, there may be massive selling of US dollar reserves. Hard to tell what will happen to the US dollar -- it will probably go up -- on averge, anyway, until something shakes worldwide confidence in it, or the 'flight to safety' ends.

Would be interesting to see whether the same thing happened to the British pound sterling prior to its demise in the early thirties.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:10
Mike Sheller (JTF) ID#347447:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Sheller/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Not to in any way impugn Donald's thinking ( which has been brilliant, sound, and typically unrepresentative of dwellers across the L. I. Sound on the mainland ) - BUT - how can we call it deflationary if all this ruckus is being caused by countries ( Indonesia, other Asian tigres, Russia, perhaps soon Japan, certainly Mexico & Latin America, who are all experiencing periodic, dramatic, and systematic DEvaluations of their currencies - making money all over the world worth LESS in terms of real things ?
All a result of the over-creation or infusion of credit money. I am not being contentious - I am really struggling with this thought. Actually, RELATIVE to this phenomenon, the U.S. dollar is deflating - becoming more and more valuable relative to other currencies and stuff. Is this because the $US is the paper of last resort? Can the buck buck the trend? Will the strong dollar carry its own death sentence and self destruct at the hands of the print-meisters? This is a ( nother ) crucial moment in financial history, seems to me.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:08
jims (WOW - That's all I can say) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Notice that television watching is declining due to viewers turning to the internet. Watching the show here certainly keeps my attention. The violence is a little more subtle but the suspense is far greater. Plus its interactive.

Thanks for the great leads Donald.
Gollum I notice that the yen, Swiss and pound are up pretty smartly, as are the bonds - interesting cross currents. The metals arn't down that much - silver depending which quote you follw is as you say up for the moment a big 2 cents. Oil is down a nickle. Commodity price implosion I donot think is over yet, not with economies like Korea's falling further into recession - only leading the parade.

Notice that the German Stock index is about to cross 5000 where the 200 day moving average is. The DOW and S&P are about to cross their 200 day moving averages. Don't hear to many suggestions that we be out buying this dip.

Hey, I like Wheat at $2.50. Lows not seen since 1977 - man that's pre dawn.

Expecting to see the big cap stocks out pace the smaller on the down side with the comodity stocks ( oils and metal ) also beginnig to resist the trend in the later part of the Dow's decline to say 7500. If the Fed should use the deflating bubble as an excuse to lower interest rates perhaps we'll see the turn we've been waiting for in the metals.

Stay tuned the excitement I fear is only beginning.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:08
Donald (Aussie dollar at record low; forecast to fall to 55 cents) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/aussie_dol_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:05
JTF (Debt defaults now being discussed publically) ID#57232:
Great -- so Venzuela is talking about a solution to their problems. Probably is, to some extent. I think we can see where this is all leading -- in a few months or less, private and corporated investors all over the world will have to some to grips with their losses, or roll them over by raising taxes.

But - the financial reserves available from increased taxation will not be there.

We could have one last US market rally -- but not yet.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:03
Donald (S&P places Royal Bank of Scotland on credit watch-Negative) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/980820/s_p_rts_ro_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 07:02
Gollum (Japan situation report) ID#35571:
http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/bridge_news/700.1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:58
JTF (I may not need to) ID#57232:
Donald: In a few days, you may get the overcast, cool rain from hurrican Bonnie.

The cooling effects of La Nina are here. But -- I don't have a clue what that means about US weather. Or -- this winter for that matter.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:58
Donald (Leading Venezuelan presidential candidate supports debt default as policy) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980826/venezuela__1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:57
Speed (More sales from Europe...) ID#29048:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/markets_pr_1.html

The only bright spot is that India had a good growing season and is stepping up to the plate to buy. As gold hits 280, will the BIS really intervene? ANOTHER milestone to watch together.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:54
JTF (Here's one about Canada) ID#57232:
All: Bank of England steps in to support Canadian dollar - again.

http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/markets_ca_1.html

Canadian friends -- please protect yourselves -- the US dollar will be going down -- eventually. But for now it is going up. We could reach $0.50 US per Canadian dollar in less than 12 months, given what has happened to other non-US currencies.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:50
Gollum (I meant dollar is down. Yen is what's up.) ID#35571:

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:49
Gollum (Silver seems to be on the move) ID#35571:
Gold is down a little, silver is up. Nikkei is down, dollar is up. Looks like the DOW will be down when it opens.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:49
Donald (@JTF) ID#26793:
Ship some of that cool this way; steamy pre-hurricane morning here.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:44
Donald (China tightens grip on unruly commodity markets; raises margin requirements.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/china_futu_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:43
JTF (You were right all along!) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Donald: Good morning! Cool where I am, for a change. All this time you have been focusing on deflation ( and the more ugly one that sometimes goes with it ) . We other Kitcoites were hotly discussing inflation vs deflation while you knew all along which would hit first.

Now Russia has imploded, Japan is teetering, China has internal unrest, and South America is looking real bad. Also looks like the gold fire sales are probably over -- or almost over.

The script is not fully written -- we may not duplicate exactly the events of the late 20's culmonating in 1929 -- but things are similar. The main differences I see is the the huge earnings resource of the baby boomers ( as long as the economic machine holds up ) , massive US debt incontrast to the American wealth cushion available during the depression, and the fact that our current president is up to his eyeballs in impeachment proceedings -- or threats of same.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:40
Donald (Brazilian president calls for national unity as financial crisis deepens) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980826/brazil_eco_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:34
Donald (LTCB derivative position at 50 trillion yen ; they will have trouble paying) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980825/ltcb_s_not_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:29
Donald (South Korea slides deeper into collapse) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/korea_econ_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:28
JTF (Gold equities vs gold bullion) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Spock: I think the key question is whether you are talking about gold bullion or gold equities. Gold bullion historically tends to do better than gold equities during times of non-inflationary economic uncertainty. Gold equities are much riskier, but much more rewarding when they finally do rally. I must admit I never would have guessed that gold equities would drop this much -- we may be talking about a one in 60 year or so opportunity when the bottom is finally in. Although we are years from the big one in the US -- somewhere around 2015, IMHO, when gold may reach $2000/oz plus. For now, I'll be happy with a conservative $400/oz.

I agree with you that gold bullion has bottomed, IMHO -- even in the US dollar.

And, who would guess that the commodity futures price index ( CRY0 ) would drop as much as it has. Given all the 'fiat' currency price inflation over the last 20 years, my guess is that the CRY0 index is already oversold. Spot price commodity price indices may already be bottoming.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:26
Auric (Retraction) ID#255151:

There were no deaths in the Tel Aviv bomb. The frightening thing is, that this bomb only weighed one ounce, according to this report. I think we have stirred up a hornet's nest with this latest Clinton move.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:26
Donald (We are beginning to see some cracks in Latin American countries) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/latin_amer_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:23
Donald (Bank of Mexico imposes new restrictions on banks, foreign exchange) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/finance/980827/mexico_eco_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:08
aurator () ID#255285:
2bro2b?
When life goes by so quickly,
That you feel you're just a blur.
Mumble vaguely to yourself,
Sort of, mummble, ummble err.

Leunig

and a bad taste joke afore I turn in:

When asked if he ever regretted giving Monica a gift, ex-President Clinton said, I always regretted splashing out on that blue dress.

Caramba@Nick
You know why there's three gold balls over a pawnshop? 2:1 you ain't getting your stuff back.
Don't forget Zurich Axiom #3.




Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:07
JTF (Erratum in last post) ID#57232:
All: On second thought, I'm pretty sure that impeachment proceedings did progress with Nixon, but what was significant was that a formal vote was not necessary. My guess is that a formal vote for WJC will not be necessary, either. But WJC will not go as quietly as Nixon. And the really big items such as Commercegate, Vince Fostergate, and Chinagate will not surface. I think they got Al Capone on a technicality -- same idea.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:05
Spock (Spiralling Down........) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Greetings Kitcoites!!

Well Well Well, ( three holes in the ground ) its been a busy day. Australian dollar has fallen to an all time low; 56.1 c US. Australian gold at $A500 so I'm making a profit on my purchase one year ago at $A444.

Almost all stockmarkets considerably down including Nikkei and the Dow. BUT...... gold also down.

A previous poster said that Kitcoites should not pray for financial collapse as gold will only tank. Indeed gold fell through the US$ 282 support today.

My only hope is hat the world sits back and say we need a currency system. Floating excahnge is stupid. Unrestrained capital movements = unstable financial system. We have instituted the same uncontrolled free-market economic system and now we are seeing the same financial results - collapse and international recession; perhaps depression.

It's a mad mad mad mad mad mad mad financial world.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:03
Auric (Bomb in Tel Aviv Kills One, Injures 10) ID#255151:

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a562142.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 06:02
JTF (Chatter about WJC) ID#57232:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sharefin: I'm up early this AM -- checking up on Japan.

You might want to check out on Matt Drudge today what Evans-Pritchard Jones is saying about the president -- I think E-P J is right that the president is history when the Monica Lewinsky tapes become public knowledge. Just as with Nixon, formal impeachment proceedings will not be necessary, only constant innuendo in the news about this and that until the Democrats will be more eager to get rid of him than the Republicans. Even now Dick Gebhardt is mentioning the 'I' word.

The only question will be when and how WJC leaves the White House. His supporters could turn on him. I do not envy WJC, as there may be a feeding frenzy. I wonder -- what does Hillary think of all this? -- She is the more aggressive one. She may be thinking of jumping ship if she can. What reason would she have to stick around if WJC is history?


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:59
2BR02B? (when in trouble when in doubt run in circles scream and shout) ID#266105:

Panic in the face of carnage is no vice.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:57
Gollum (?) ID#43349:
Nikkei is and has been down. Yen is and has been up.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:57
Spock (Beaming in........) ID#210114:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:48
sharefin (Pure gossip? - Love my cyber friends....indeedy so..) ID#284255:
One thing he said was, know the blue dress. Well it first came back from the lab ok.
Then it came back not so okay. Well, when he went into hospital for the
leg, phony leg, well, it was to remove a birth mark on genitals and they
removed that and at same time, it was just as easy for them to put a tube in and extract some semen for the dress. He was set up.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:47
sharefin (Is this capitulation?) ID#284255:
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Beware the jaws that bite,
The claws that scratch.
Beware the Jabberwock, my son.

Or is a plain old boring bear in a market

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:43
sharefin (Mozel) ID#284255:
You humble me.
You should have seen the last half of the email...
Namaste

Nick@Canabeera
You, Sir have balls of gold.
Long may you prosper.
And may your paper turn to gold.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:35
Nick@C (Have you heard about the guy...) ID#386245:
Copyright © 1998 Nick@C/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
...who walked into a casino in Vegas at 4 in the morning with a large bag of money?

He walked up to the cash window and said There is $700,000 in this bag. I wish to place it on one spin of the roulette wheel. If I win, I want this bag of money back, along with a check for $700,000. If I lose, I walk out.

After much consultation/counting etc., the manager agreed. The man walked along the row of tables, stopped, and placed his single chip on red. Round and round she goes. Red.

The man walked out with his bag and a check.
.....................

I read that many years ago in a newspaper. I reckon the guy replaced the money into the company safe, told the boss where to stick his job, and retired into a life of luxury. He probably had a ticket to Rio in case black came up.

.............................

What is the point of all this? Today I bought a whole heap of gold shares. Some at much less than the company's cash in the bank. Just couldn't help myself. I feel just like the man walking into the casino.

......................

Go red!!!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 05:00
Hedgehog (thats NUKES) ID#39857:
sorry, she's more up to speed in this area than I.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:55
Hedgehog (sharefin, Tank Girl would like to know if you) ID#39857:
Have any Y2K info on newks.? Thanks.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:54
aurator (indications are indicating that indicators are indelicately indictable) ID#255285:
Akau
Why would anyone want to sell an indicator that worked?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:53
mozel (@AKAU) ID#153102:
Many thanks for sharing the news and the links to source information. Very impressive.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:46
AKAU (@ mozel) ID#256217:
The August 1995 Futures magazine has a complete description of Sequential. DeMark also produces a software package - you can find it with a search. Supposedly some programs have incorporated it. I know Metastock had hoped to include it into their latest version but DeMark was asking too much.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:31
AKAU (Sequential) ID#256217:
Tom DeMark, who was the TA for Soros and Paul Tudor Jones, was the author of the technique. I have provided a site which describes the basics of the Sequential Analysis:

http://www.futuresmag.com/library/may96/tradetech.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:27
mozel (@Skip) ID#153102:
It's just paper you're losing. You coulda died a year ago. Hard to say when rescue will arrive. They aren't treating the prisoners well. Try whistling the tune from The Bridge on the RIver Kwai. Good for morale to whistle in the dark.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:23
sharefin (Charts) ID#284255:
-
Why is this so?
Information spike?
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/gcz8.jpg

Up/Down Volume ratios
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Updownvol.jpg

Swing charts, momentum, a/d and advancers/decliners.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Swing.htm

This must be how a bear feels.
Who can remember the feeling?
Who has been there before.
Who needs the Dow theory to accept what is happening.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Local news.
SE Queensland will experience power cuts for a longer duration.
On start-up, problems have occurred.
Remidation is still happening.
Got Y2k - sure thing...


Got Gold, Grub and Guns?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:19
mozel (@AKAU) ID#153102:
Where oh where can this S indicator be tracked ? Minds that have no indication, or clue, want to know.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:13
Gianni Dioro__A (Financial Times Lex section has an article on Gold. ) ID#384350:
-
http://www.ft.com ( Lex column ) you need to register to access article.
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/q84832.htm ( registered users )
Article says that in light of currency depreciation , one should give gold a hard look, especially mining shares in those gold-producing countries whose currencies have been ravaged like Australia and So. Africa.

Article finishes with, Take South Africa: brokers Fleming Martin reckons available industry profits will increase fivefold from the first to the third quarter. Against that sort of backdrop, even a dollar investor can afford to regard a 20-25 per cent loss on the currency as a barely visible blemish. Meanwhile, the forecast dividend yield of around 7 per cent means investors are paid to hold the shares. Share prices have yet to reflect this improved financial outlook. The irony is that it will probably take a rally in the dollar bullion price to focus attention.

@Sharefin, 1100 oz. is out of my price range. I do love mangoes, though.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:09
AKAU (Turnaround Near) ID#256217:
Copyright © 1998 AKAU/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have used the Sequential indicator ( descriptions in both Futures and Stocks & Commodities magazines ) for the past few years to gauge long-term trends in the XAU. During the past five years, it has given two major buy signals at the January 1993 low ( XAU doubled in the next 12 months with the indicator giving a sell signal at the end ) and the October 1995 low ( XAU rose approx 33% in 7 months ) . It has also kept me on the sidelines this year, until my bottom fishing caught a block of Durban a couple of days ago. Currently, the indicator will give a buy signal this week if we stay below 59.91 at week's end, which seems likely. Today, I did some more fishing but no strikes since I had a limit on my bait, but after this final low I will be increasing my bait size with the hope of landing a number of golden trophies.

Keep your head up goldbugs, the turn is coming. Finally, something positive tonight about gold!

P.S. - Backtesting the indicator also provided other signals at major tops and bottoms of the XAU.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 04:01
mozel (@sharefin @As you have nothing but friends and admirers on this site,) ID#153102:
your last post is cleverly titled. Also eloquent. You are one of the centerposts of Kitco. Well grounded and not susceptible to falling over even in a gale.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:54
EJ (@Rack and HighRise) ID#229207:
Rack, your prediction of a rapid demise of the US. I read in the WSJ today that US securities firms are setting up shop in Europe to take advantage of the new market for equities that the euro will create. Their reasoning? There are lot of rich Europeans but they are only invested in their stock markets at 60% of GNP while the US investors are at 160% of GNP. Therefore, there's 100% of GNP upside. Isn't that clever?

HighRise, I've been watching Japan too tonight. I think it's finally happening there. The final collapse. Very sad.

-EJ


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:45
sharefin (Thoughts to a close friend) ID#284255:
-
Mirrors within mirrors.
Sounds like you have been peering down coridors?
Around corners?

So many goings on amongst the power people of which we know naught.

THEY must be feeling very stressed by now.
So much to control, so much to keep under ones eye.
And they aren't holding it together very well - are they?

All hell about to break loose soon.
And my mind goes back to your 'ever so lucid' comments on physical.
Buy and hold for security in this ever changing world.

The dominos are leaning heavily upon each other.
Support is paramount.
Too much to lose.
Too easy to lose.

Much wealth is being flushed away down the gurgler.
Much is being done to protect what is left.

But when the pillars of support are the dominos that lean?
This is not good at all.

Our global society is on the edge.
Perilously close to the edge.
Leaning over the chasm.
Of this era of power lending.
This era of pyramiding debt.
Of milking the system.

When failure of the ability to milk.
The failure of security of assets.
Then our society tetters over this yawning chasm.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:40
tolerant1 (PUBLIC NOTICE, Namaste' to SILVERBARON, and gulps form the Island that is Long) ID#373284:
THANKS and still laughing...I will be down in Kentucky visiting friends and you can be sure I will get to your neck of the woods...you ARE a privilege...warmth to you and yours...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:28
mozel (@Ph in LA @ This Ain't Fun; The Real Inquirer Pays ) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:37
PH in LA ( Mozel: Further Clarification Needed! ) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My dear Mozel:

In case you live under any apprehension, I have long been convinced that your mind is as great as you appear to think it is. Maybe even greater! ( I'm OK, You're not! ) Therefore, you have nothing to prove to me other than exactly what you are saying. This being so, however, doesn't excuse your impenatratably murky prose. How can you say in one moment that The Title to a car or truck is also known as the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin. It may also be called a Manufacturer's Certification or Verification or Declaration of Origin. And then, in the same paragraph assert that A certificate of a thing is never the thing itself. It is a fallacy to think it so and an impossibility for it to be so.

I ask you: If the Title to a car or truck is known as the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin isn't that a case of A certificate ( Manufacturer's Statement... ) being the thing ( Title ) itself? Or is there some great distinction to be drawn between being known as and being that is worth pursueing?

#######
In the first place, a manufacturer's statement of origin is not a certificate. Even if you ( by parens ) attempt to make it so.
I see you are confused. Or just trying to aggravate the hell out of me. I think I need to increase the proportion of murk in my posts so certain individuals will just skip over them. The title to a thing is a legal concept. When the concept of title is expressed for a car or truck in a document, certain elements must be contained in it for it to be a valid expression of the concept. But, a particular heading is not among them. So, Manufaturer's Statement or Certification or Verification or Declaration of Origin would all be possible headings to the body of the document which in its contents actually expresses the concept of title to a vehicle. It is the document in its entirety and not the heading which makes it the title document. A parallel can be found in music. It is not the heading Blues which makes tablature on a piece of paper expressive of the concept of Blues, it is the nature of the notes, etc. thereon. Which may be called a blues composition, a piece of the blues, or a blues tune. To be called a thing is not to be the thing. Except when witches are speaking. The distinction between being called and being is great to me. It's one reason I examine deliveries before accepting them. And count change given. If you don't get this, I don't want to know about it.

###############

It would seem to me, as expressed in the English Language, a language with which I have some familiarity ( having spoken it since my birth ) , that the title to my car is the title to my car. Not the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin. The Manufacturer's Statement of Origin is the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin. Not the title to my car.

######
Lawyers hardly ever enlighten people like you who think because they know the meaning of a word in English they understand the word in legal language. You go right on thinking whatever you like.
######

Furthermore: You say, the bank doesn't care if you borrow FRN's to buy a silly hat or to make one out of FRN's. Yet doesn't the Federal Reserve Bank itself object to making of hats ( or bonfires ) out of its Reserve Notes? Doesn't every note say that it remains the property of the Federal Reserve and must be surrendered on demand? I seem to recall that the destruction of currency is a criminal offence. I would expect this to be a distinction which would not be lost upon you, of all people.

#####
The bank doesn't care. The government does. By the way, I think you have some counterfeit on your hands ( surrender on demand ? ) . When you make your silly hat out of FRN's, don't damage or destroy them if you wish to abide by the regulations of the US Treasury. Just fold two over and stick them between your ears.
####

Your post is also especially unspecific as to why The State, having the Title in its possession, is the legal owner of ( my ) car. ( I am ) just allowed to use it until the State wants it. Under what circumstances, for example, could the state insist upon taking posession of my car? And with what basis in law? Are you refering to your thesis that the only law is the law of force, and that the state, being a stronger entity than a mere citizen has the rights to his very belongings? Is the state, then, also the owner of my kitchen sink? The clothes on my back? My musical instrument which I use in the practise of my profession, and which is exempt from siezure even in bankruptcy proceedings?

#####
I have no thesis that the only law is the law of force. But, whatever passes for law among men always has force behind it. The state IS the legal owner of your kitchen sink, but I'm not going to explain that again. Your clothes and musical instrument are yours, probably. I hope you have a receipt. I wouldn't count on Congress not taking them in a bankruptcy proceeding. I haven't read the new bankruptcy statute myself.

But, about the car. The legal owner of a car is the party that has the title to the car in his or her possession. That's just how it is. Law, you know. If you don't use the car according to regulations as you agreed to do when you registered the car, the State will want it and take it. They will tow it and hold it until you pay FRN's to reinstate you as the user of it. Every time there is a session of the legislature, there is a potential change in the regulations. The regulations are all about moving FRN's from your pocket to their pocket. Or from your pocket to pockets in the insurance industry, the auto parts-repair-inspection industry, and the new car industry. As the legislature does not want to disturb you in your illusion that you are the legal owner of the car so it can continue to milk you of FRN's for violations and infractions and taxes and fees, it always has a plausible reason for a new regulation. It's a foolish government that kills the laying goose that it has tethered or that explains to the party who paid for it and who feeds it the law by which FRN's are exacted for the tethering. Americans like to say government can't do anything right even while government gets more and more FRN's out of their pockets.
##########
An enquiring mind wants to know.
##########
Wanting to know and being able or allowed to know are not at all the same.



Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:18
Jack () ID#252127:

A non IMF low interest rate package to Russia headed by the major European countries and the US may eliminate many gruesome possibilites down the road.
It would definately show we want her to succeed in her shift to a western style economy.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:08
Auric (Russian Financial Crisis Deepens) ID#240288:

Bank runs reported. http://msnbc.com/news/189765.asp

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:04
Auric (Global Chaos Spreading) ID#240288:

From MSNBC-- http://msnbc.com/news/190610.asp

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 03:01
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
-
14300 is also the Maginot line, if it crash through there, a lot of
discombabulation in the banking system could happen. You got to believe that
MOF will do whatever they can or is possible to defend the line. To take it
will require few assaults IMHO. But I also think that unless they move on
with their stimulation plans fast, the Maginot line will fold.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Commodities Fall to 12-Year Low Amid Weak Demand for Oil, Metals, Food
http://www.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=588696152
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Local news;
Power stations will be shutting down and everyone to expect wide-spread blackout.
Reason: Testing for Y2k.

Good to see, but raises awareness for what could happen.

I wonder about the results?
Will they tell all?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:52
Jack (Tid bits, Silver whose use is about 7 times greater than gold sells for 1/57th its price) ID#252127:

From Barts charts above, the gold/silver price ratio is 56.6

From 1997 fabrication statistics from WGC and The Silver Institute ( bar hoarding not included ) , the use of silver over gold 863.4*/120.6* or about 7.2 times.

The ratio of eligible Comex silver stocks to eligible gold 35.4*/0.131* or 270.5 times.

* ( In millions of ounces )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:51
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
-
Nick, I caught Chuck Harder program tonite with Dick Gregory. Did you?
I am sure you didn't because have not seen you around.
Here's what I could get written. It was wild!!
He said that Clinton would resign in 6 wks, longest 90 days or he would be
assassinated. He said by Bin Laden, who has been trained, and funded under
the CIA and brought to Afganistan. He had been in Ft Bending, Georgia
Also in New York City at Waldorf Astoria

Said someone could kill Bill and Hiliary and call it suicide
Or Monica could die of natural causes and they would think Bill did it
Someone could go in and smoke Cocaine with Bill

If he is assassinated he will come out a hero, nothing will then come out.
The controlled press will say they have nothing on him.

He will give the speech he was supposed to give the other day and then step
down
He said that the speech the other day was not what he was supposed to give,
He will do it gracefully. Someone obviously showed him something before he
went on the air and he was mad as hell. That is why he appear so angry.

Rockefeller is one step into the Whitehouse

Then he mentioned that there were two more grand jurys going on and that one
of these will be where it will come out, the bombshell they have on him.

Guess what a homosexual affair

Well, whatch think of that. Dick Gregory is the spokesman for the black
population and very well known.

Interesting times coming up.

The powers to be are going to eliminate him one way or the other by the
look of things.





Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:46
sharefin (Email chatter) ID#284255:
MSNBC reports that NBC news has learned from WH staff, that perhaps as early
as tomorrow, Bill Clinton will go off topic in Worster, Mass. and do a
Mea Culpa II or that it would be no later than monday.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:35
sharefin (Servhard) ID#284255:
I collated the info from all his Kitco posts.
Many hours of work.

But pleasureable.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:27
sharefin (Cowgirl - don't get no blues) ID#284255:
Lots of preparation comments at the bottom of this page.

Spiritual, Physical & Financial Preparedness
http://y2kwatch.com/y2kman.htm

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:26
Servhard (Hi sharefin...) ID#287193:
just noticed your post on the way out...
One question: How did you create and collect the data base on 'Another'?
( among others )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:19
ROR (Gold) ID#412286:
How good is support at 275 or 260?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:17
Servhard (Cowgirl__A (Econ 101)) ID#287193:
for me it is late-
but try this:
http://www.tradertalk.com/tutorial/idrd.html

You may find some of your questions answered.
Good Night.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:10
Auric (Cowgirl--CEF (Central Fund of Canada)) ID#240288:
Last link didn't work. Try
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=cef&d=t

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:06
sharefin (Gianni Dioro) ID#284255:
Asking 1100 OZ of 'my precious'

Getting cheaper daily?

Don't forget the Bowen Mangoes ( :- ) ) )

~~~~~~~~~
Servhard
Many thanks
Namaste

Robnoel
Always stimulating talk.
Ta.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:06
Auric (Cowgirl_A) ID#240288:

Here is a stock that simply holds Gold and
Silver bullion in a Canadian Bank. Listed as CEF on the American Stock Exchange. They try for an equal dollar value of Gold and Silver holdings. Right now it is about 50 oz Silver to 1 oz Gold. http://quote.yahoo.com/p/c/cef.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:05
Skip (Wizened (Has everyone died on this miserable forum or just too depressed to post..) ID#287129:
Copyright © 1998 Skip/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I think that many of us are too depressed to post something intelligent or profound. Personally, I'm too busy licking my wounds and praying for the bleeding to stop. Every time I think that gold and gold stocks have finally hit the final bottom, more manipulation proves me wrong again, and again, and again, and again, and ...ad infitum, ad nasueam...

I'm beginning to think that the only way gold will ever go up is for me to be forced to sell out what little I have left; and then I'll wish to God that I could have held on a few more weeks. I'm sorry to be so pessimistic, but 3 years of relentless and incessant losses have made me somewhat pessimistic and cynical. Let's hope gold goes up soon.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:04
Who Cares?__A (Clinton - Daily Telegraph Story) ID#242328:

Just got this from Drudge's homepage -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000118613908976&rtmo=kexqZqZp&atmo=rrrrrrYs&pg=/et/98/8/27/wcli127.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:03
clktech__A (@Dirt - Greenspan's Legacy) ID#338111:
How do you deal with deflation? Easy - Just print more money. Start capital works programs. More government spending. Drop interest rates.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 02:02
HighRise (WHOA!) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Japan
Nikkei 225
^N225
2:03AM
14413.79
-452.24
-3.04%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:46
HighRise (Cowgirl__A) ID#401237:

Some Gold funds are just closing down and returning the balance remaining to fund investors.

I was in a Van Eck Gold Fund that changed it's name to Van Eck Hard Assets, I didn't find out till later that they were 40% in Oil....I found out that, rather than averaging down o=in Gold, I was buying Oil at the top.

Watch all funds closely.

HighRise

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:46
Rack (Japan and the USA) ID#402131:
Japan is now sitting at 14,400 +- Thats ground zero. At some point the USA, ( being the last to fall ) will start to crack. I suspect when it does the process will be so fast that anyone not in gold will find themselves screwed!!! This process is like waiting for someone to die.
It drags on forever-sort of. Then you remember so many things you should/could have done. I cashed out my brokerage cash and have it sitting in my basement hideout. I doubt I will miss the interest.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:42
Auric (G'day Cowgirl) ID#240288:
Copyright © 1998 Auric/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Think I'll give questions 1 and 2 a go. 1 ) Borrow money-- I would say no. Debt leaves you obligated and vulnerable in many scenarios. It's a bit of a risk to bet that borrowers will be winners. 2 ) Pay off mortgage-- First of all, get a fixed rate mortgage. You are protected from interest rate rises. If you are in a position to pay it off, I'd say wait. Keep that money in reserve. If we have a huge deflation, no problem, you have the cash. You can either pay it off then, or refinance at a lower fixed rate. If a big inflation comes about, no problem, you've got yourself a very low interest loan. Good luck!

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:33
Cowgirl__A (got GOLD) ID#34191:
What do you think of gold mutual funds? Specifically I have a minor amt invested in AmCent. Global Gold. Naturally it's in a dive like all the rest. How close to zero do they have to get to go belly up? I keep telling myself not to worry because I'm in it for the long term, at least till y2k is over.

Note: This does not replace my need for coins.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:32
Who Cares?__A (Not Depressed - Taking Money Out of the Bank :)) ID#242328:

Man, oh, man. I just read details of what went on in Russia today.

A FORTY percent drop in the Ruble. HOLY COW, that's BIG.

That's, that's, it's just GODZILLA. Holy cow. No wonder the
Nikkei took a dive. I'm surprised the Canadian dollar is still
trading. : )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:31
HighRise (GOLD it's not pretty!) ID#401237:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ASIA/EUROPE SPOT PRICE August 27, 1998 01:30AM New York Time Timezone Equivalents
Bid
Ask
Change from New York close
GOLD
280.80
281.40
-1.10
-0.39%

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:20
Wizened (Has everyone died on this miserable forum or just too depressed to post.. it's only paper money you ) ID#242303:
are losing.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:19
Cowgirl__A (Econ 101) ID#34191:
Copyright © 1998 Cowgirl__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I need some help on some terminology and what we expect in the future. Please dig out your crystal ball and tell me about the following:

Devaluation or Inflation or Deflation

1. Do I borrow money to buy a new car because I think inflation will make the car cost more and my loan appear smaller? ( inflation )

1a. Do I wait until after the crash and buy a car with cash because they will be giving them away?

2. Do I pay off my house because property values will decrease? ( deflation ) ( besides the money might not be safe in the mattress )

3. Does devaluation mean the same $ will only buy half as much? How is that different from inflation?

Thanks

Cowgirl

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:13
Wizened (Strad.. dey got to do somthin...) ID#242303:
Copyright © 1998 Wizened/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
To avert a serious crisis. It all very well saying it's not a US problem yet, but who's going to buy US products, how are domestic manufacturers going to compete with imports that are 40% cheaper.

Sure US companies have a lot of plants in cheap areas but who are they going to sell to, just US consumers, what happens to no more boeing jets sold, or MSFT software bought?

enough said. They have to do something, either throw soft mexico loans at the whole world or drop their interests rates so low that people are forced out of the dollar.

Either way how is good for gold?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:09
dirt (Greenspan's legacy) ID#215379:
I kept Inflation down, just like Volker told me. He didn't teach me how to deal with Deflation. So, what do I do now ?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:08
mozel (@SDRer @Constitution 101) ID#153102:
Copyright © 1998 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@SDRer Me, too, and we know it ain't easy.


@Constitution 101 The Constitution for the united States of America established a government to govern governments, not people. The parties to the Constitution are the several states. Except for the powers granted in the Articles of Confederation, the States were completely free and completely Independent states or countries before the adoption of the Constitution of 1787. So, the proper ground for understanding this document is that it is in the nature of a treaty. Therefore, violations of the treaty can only be redressed by the parties to it, the states.

The preamble part about WE THE PEOPLE misleads us. Because the States themselves derived their sovereignty from the people who formed them and were not granted power in their constitutions to delegate power, the grants of power from the States to the federal could only be made by the people. Hence, the preamble's statement. There was, however, no referendum on the Constitution of 1787. The Legislatures of the States would never have adopted the Constitution of 1787. But, they were bypassed by the provision submitting the Constitution of 1787 to conventions in the States. This meant the proponents of the Constitution needed only to concentrate on winning over the delegates to the convention in a State and not the majority of the people, which there is reason to doubt could have been done. Looked at in this true light, the Constitution appears more like a NAFTA or GATT scam than a true expression of the will of the people. There is also evidence this scam was carried out pursuant to terms of a 1783 Treaty with the King of England that were secret.

If the Constitution was adopted to govern states and not people, how have we come to the point where people are governed by Acts of Congress ? Stay tuned.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:06
Wizened (Correction Moddy's cuts rating on D. Bank) ID#242303:


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:05
Wizened (S & P Cut Deutche banks rating..) ID#242303:
As usual the rating agencies who get paid by those they rate, are a little late into the game and after everyone has already massacared share prices come out and say the obvious...


http://cnnfn.com/quickenonfn/banking/9808/26/moodys/

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:03
A.Goose () ID#20137:

Goodnight all.

Keep up the good work, everyone references your efforts.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:02
Strad Master (FWIW) ID#250297:
Copyright © 1998 Strad Master/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
ALL: I don't exactly know what the effect of this would be, and it is just an unsubstantiated rumor, albeit from ( for me ) a reliable source with contacts in the know: According to them, the Fed will very shortly make a surprise move and DECREASE interest rates! If it pans out - remember, you heard it from me first. If it doesn't, don't blame me - I'm just passing along what I heard. Is this economically possible given the global situation? What would be the result for the markets both long and short term? I just read in IBD that the Fed had decided to keep its bias toward tightening, so this would really shock most investors. Any comments?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 01:00
sharefin (APH) ID#284255:
Now I know all about e-waves ( :- ) ) )
Ta.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:57
Selby (Ted Left Too Soon) ID#286230:
http://www.canoe.ca/MoneyNews/aug26_gold.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:54
Wizened (Pretty soon a couple of hundred US Dollars will buy you...) ID#242303:
...an ounce of gold, several barrels of the lightest sweetest crude, half a ton of best durum wheat, 1000 dollars of Canadian, NZ, and Ozzie dollars with change still left over for a big-mac...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:52
SDRer__A (Harbingers abound...) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Wednesday, August 26, 1998 at: Lon 12:22 p.m. Pra 1:22 p.m. NY 7:22 a.m. HK 7:22 p.m.

China, Germany Issue Identical Stamps

WUERZBURG, Germany -- ( Agence France Presse ) Germany and
China have for the first time issued stamps with identical pictures, a
spokesman for the German post office said here Tuesday.

The picture is a drawing by Chinese graphic artist Xiao Yutian that shows
the residence of the grand dukes of Wuerzburg and the temple of Puning,
250 kilometers ( 160 miles ) northeast of Beijing.

A total of 20 million stamps will be issued in Germany and China. The
stamps have a face value of 1.10 marks ( 61 cents ) , good for a standard
letter inside Germany and the European Union. ( ( c ) 1998 Agence
France Presse )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:50
AZAU (Fear) ID#257253:
I sense the building fear in Asian markets. Not just sense, but the numbers have been melting for a long time. Gauge for yourself the decreasing confidence in a recovery. The frog knows now he is being boiled alive slowly....

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:50
PH in LA () ID#225408:
TYoung:

If you have not sold your gold mining shares by now why would you bother? They are not worth much now. Gold lower means nothing but physical will have value ...soon.

Uncanny, isn't it, how exactly this fits into what ANOTHER has been saying? Something recently about gold shares being eventually worthless before they rise in price by a factor of three. That zero times three is still...?

He has always said to buy the physical. How wrong can he be?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:44
sharefin (The Jo Anne Effect - explained) ID#284255:
-
There had been speculation on what's the magic of Fiscal Year 1999,
Fiscal Year 2000. Jo Anne, in a classic c.s.y2k post, explained
that certain financial systems sort ( in the sense of 'group' rather than
'collate' ) transactions into last year, this year, next year piles.

Thank you for clarifying this for me. This is a fairly narrow range of
failures, but I can see how many management information systems will be
affected by this kind of thing. I understood the problem to be something far
broader. What happens when a service purchased by someone flops over into
the year 2000? Can a twelve month insurance policy be written after January
1st, 1999? Or will that choke some systems? Can something end before it
begins?
------------------------------------------
Prior to Jo Anne's posting, there was speculation on why Fiscal Year
2000 would be a problem and Fiscal Year 1997 would not. We intuitively
knew that at some point Y2K problems would hit fiscal year processing
but didn't think the logic through.

Jo Anne's expertise is in accounting. She pointed out that inherent in
the definition of a Fiscal year is two bounds, the date that marks the
previous year and the date that marks the next year.

For each transaction, the system must ask two questions: 1 ) is it before
the start date of this fiscal year? 2 ) is it after the end date of this
fiscal year?

The failure can occur either when the system generates the end date or
when it performs the comparison.

If the system generates the year of the end date as: 19100 or 1900, we
have one class of comparison problems. If it generates the end date as
00, we have a potential for another class of problems.

In some cases, the date will be generated correctly but the comparison
will still fail. For example, the date might be coded as 100001, year
100, day 001, which we recognize to be January 1, 2000, but the
comparison was coded to ignore the century indicator.

The exact details of the failures are the common Y2K got-cha's, we've
seen them before.... mismatches on the data, reversed comparisons, bad
date arithmetic, erroneous leap year calculations.

Jo Anne's contribution was explaining how these well known problems
will affect fiscal year processing and giving us a heads up.

Here's what I infer, the Jo Anne effect will be a general problem
starting in January 1999, that's 127 days from now. I don't know how
many systems exhibit this problem. In some cases, the company will not
notice the problem except that their accounting systems will lose 8% of
their annual totals every month. Odd, they'll say, why aren't we
earning any money?

The problem will take a jump in September 1999, when the other common
fiscal year switch takes place. This Y2K problem affects accounting
and management information systems, not the line systems that move fuel,
food, and other essentials.

Before the denial-heads ( I'm thinking, moshe ) jump in and deny the
importance of these systems, I'll tell you pre-emptively, if accounting
and management isn't important, lets shut them down rightnow. ...I'm
still reeling from the denial-spin on the ATC failure in New England, no
planes crashed, the ATC mainframes are not mission critical. I'm
watching the evacuation from the hurricane, they're interviewing people
who plan to 'ride out' the cat-3 hurricane... hey, it's -bks-!

The run-for-the-hills crowd should watch the two dates. Depending on
how the press plays it, the sheeple could start to bleat,
baaaa-baaaa-it's true., baaaa-waaaa-I'm scared.

I'll be counting on -bks- and the other Y2K denial-heads to pool their
funds and run ads in the major newspapers, Y2K is *not* a problem. and
Nothing to fear except fear itself.

The answer to Tom's other question is, it depends. Those issues,
expiration dates and such are certainly related but are not what Jo
Anne's article covered. Some of those systems will exhibit problems,
some will not. That's the reason for all the testing.
-----
The Jo Anne Effect is about sorting
transactions into fiscal years. It's not about what-if's and
projections.

While the Jo Anne Effect is relatively contained, it is significant
because it is a definition of a class of processing problems that appear
before January 1, 2000.

Since Jo Anne has explained it, it is a known and understood problem and
one that we need to test for.

cory hamasaki 11,823 hours._

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Got Gold, Guns and Grub?

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:43
SDRer__A (Good Russian site--) ID#290172:
Wednesday, Aug. 26, 1998
Trading takes a tumble…
Communists make a comeback…
The ruble plunges… Yeltsin's political gamble, that lost…
The ruble limps along…
Chaos cometh…
Rage at debt restructuring…
Russia's rampant indifference…
Is billionaire Berezovsky calling the shots?…
And hit men for hire.
http://www.russiatoday.com/

In Russian:
The wizard behind the curtain?…
And Kiriyenko was clearly on his way out.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:37
PH in LA (Mozel: Further Clarification Needed!) ID#225408:
Copyright © 1998 PH in LA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
My dear Mozel:

In case you live under any apprehension, I have long been convinced that your mind is as great as you appear to think it is. Maybe even greater! ( I'm OK, You're not! ) Therefore, you have nothing to prove to me other than exactly what you are saying. This being so, however, doesn't excuse your impenatratably murky prose. How can you say in one moment that The Title to a car or truck is also known as the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin. It may also be called a Manufacturer's Certification or Verification or Declaration of Origin. And then, in the same paragraph assert that A certificate of a thing is never the thing itself. It is a fallacy to think it so and an impossibility for it to be so.

I ask you: If the Title to a car or truck is known as the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin isn't that a case of A certificate ( Manufacturer's Statement... ) being the thing ( Title ) itself? Or is there some great distinction to be drawn between being known as and being that is worth pursueing?

It would seem to me, as expressed in the English Language, a language with which I have some familiarity ( having spoken it since my birth ) , that the title to my car is the title to my car. Not the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin. The Manufacturer's Statement of Origin is the Manufacturer's Statement of Origin. Not the title to my car.

Furthermore: You say, the bank doesn't care if you borrow FRN's to buy a silly hat or to make one out of FRN's. Yet doesn't the Federal Reserve Bank itself object to making of hats ( or bonfires ) out of its Reserve Notes? Doesn't every note say that it remains the property of the Federal Reserve and must be surrendered on demand? I seem to recall that the destruction of currency is a criminal offence. I would expect this to be a distinction which would not be lost upon you, of all people.

Your post is also especially unspecific as to why The State, having the Title in its possession, is the legal owner of ( my ) car. ( I am ) just allowed to use it until the State wants it. Under what circumstances, for example, could the state insist upon taking posession of my car? And with what basis in law? Are you refering to your thesis that the only law is the law of force, and that the state, being a stronger entity than a mere citizen has the rights to his very belongings? Is the state, then, also the owner of my kitchen sink? The clothes on my back? My musical instrument which I use in the practise of my profession, and which is exempt from siezure even in bankruptcy proceedings?

An enquiring mind wants to know.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:32
SDRer__A (Thanks Mozel--working hard to be an authentic) ID#290172:
PERSON...

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:31
SDRer__A (A.Goose--about gold) ID#290172:
From the hallowed halls comes soft hints about free banks issuing their own currencies, gold, islands of stability...Russia! At this juncture,
nothing would be a total surprise...

Also picked up a communique about small shipment ( under 150 tons ) from
North Korea to China... Year of the Dragon.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:28
mozel (@SDRer) ID#153102:
There are probably as many bogus security agreements in Federal Reserve Banks falsely posing as collateral as there in BOJ for real estate loans that are worthless. That's why no audit. Banks make a practice of hanging on to the original of a security agreement because so long as they have it, they can loan on it as if it were real collateral. The bank lawyers read the Uniform Commercial Code very closely.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:25
themissinglink (Lucianne Goldberg) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Unlike the US media, which beg for crumbs of gossip outside her grand, rambling apartment on the Upper West Side, she knows what Mr Clinton actually did with Monica Lewinsky in the Oval Office. It's psychologically shocking more than anything else. It's the cruelty of what he was doing to Monica, the torture of a girl with low self-esteem who wasn't strong enough to tell him to jump in the lake, she said.

When the American public hears these tapes, it will be the final straw that brings home what this whole story is about: abuse of power. The tapes: 20 hours of X-rated pornography recorded on C90 Radio Shack cassettes by a cheap, voice-activated tape-machine. They are her own special contribution to the history of the late 20th century.

Leave aside all the kinky sex, which I don't want to talk about. Here is this 22-year-old girl calling Clinton 'that bastard', 'that son of a bitch', she says. The tapes make it explicit that Betty Currie, the President's elderly black secretary, was used as a cover for the affair and knew she was being used. On one occasion she was trapped in a bathroom until late at night because she could not get out without disturbing the President and Miss Lewinsky at work.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:18
themissinglink (Alert Status Alpha) ID#373403:
Copyright © 1998 themissinglink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Just went over to the closing Fort Sheridan north of Chicago where I have been an environmental activist opposing the cleanup. Was not allowed on base to photograph myself with Landfill 7 for an upcoming article in the Shepherd Express in Milwaukee. Last month one could drive the base as there were no guards posted. Now one cannot even enter with an inspection.

Funny that the military conducted this bombing action against the great terrorist threat yet no guards were posted until after our bombing. Self fulfilling prophecy? Where is my protection? Seems like the DoD is only protecting their own.

http://www.familyjeweler.com/fortweb.htm

Steve

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:17
SDRer__A (A. Goose--It ate one of mine too!) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
JGBs rise to record high as Nikkei dips
[SINGAPORE]

Simex Japanese government bond ( JGB ) futures rose to a record close yesterday as the Nikkei Stock Average fell below the 15,000 mark.

Dealers said flight to quality buying was triggered by worries about a
worsening of Japan's banking crisis.

September JGBs rose to a record high at 134.95 but settled just a
touch lower at 134.94, up 0.16 point from their previous close.
Volume was light at 592 lots.

Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa on Tuesday warned of a
possibility of default by the Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan should
the bank find difficulty in paying for derivative deals it has done on the interest rate swap market.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/4/cfrpt02.html

US into denial bigtime! Asia implodes--that's the Japanese banks, won't affect OUR banks; Russian goes down for the third time--not a problem, that's the German banks...one can not but wonder to whom the US banks HAVE lent? They ( US banks ) evidently have some assets...are they ALL consumer loans? {:- ) )

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:16
mozel (@Dave @Eldorado @6Pak) ID#153102:
@Dave Things are bad enough without inventing confusion on our own. The real sh*t is in the states and that's where all the solutions have to come from. The states are the parties to the Constitution. But, where are the constitutional state governments ? People are going to have to learn to take the matters they now hand over to lawyers into their own hands.

@Eldorado I myself know of none.

@6Pak The stuff on enacting law would surely apply in Canada. Thanks for your kind words of appreciation.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:16
larryn__A (GENE, GOLLUM) ID#32078:
Copyright © 1998 larryn__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I sorta agree with Gollum, with the following comments.

There are two types of rates out there which affect the situation.

The first, the long bond rate is set by the demand for the dollar bond as the price of the interest paying bond moves up or down. This is the international market speaking. Today it is 5.421%, and used to be over 6% not too long ago. Since then gold has cratered.

As the demand for dollars increased, due to flights to the dollar due to other currencies falling/collapsing/devaluing, the value of the dollar went up and therefore commodities of all kinds measured in dollars went down, including gold and just about everything in the CRB index. As long as there is this continued demand for the dollar, gold won't go up much and gold rallies will be short-lived.

The other rate is the short term rate set by the Fed, basically known as Federal funds, now at 5.5% ( more than the long bond rate ) The Fed can control this through daily insertion or withdrawal of cash to banks and it is announced on CNBC. Changing the discount rate for bank loans is another method. This way, the Fed can control the short term rate, which the banks refer to in order to set their 'prime' rate, set by banks.

Since the Japanese interest rate to investors is only .5%, people borrow yen and buy dollars. Therefore, demand for dollars goes up and the dollar goes up and yen go down and gold goes down. The decreasing long bond rate is the market method of adjusting. However, if the Fed keeps the short term rate high ( relatively high at 5.5% ) , the dollar will stay high and gold low. The short term rate is not market driven.

Therefore, if the short term rate were lowered by Fed policy, demand for dollars would decrease ( by how much is anyone's guess ) and gold would go up.

All things being equal, if prime went to 2%, the dollar would fall and gold would go up. IMHO, gold is down because the dollar is up. Bring down the dollar and gold will rise. It's just a matter of time. The strong dollar is strangling other economies by robbing them of investor money.


Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:12
HighRise (Planet Hollywood) ID#401237:
Planet Hollywood may have been targeted as a symbol of America and the West and because of controversy surrounding the upcoming film ``The Siege,'' which stars Planet Hollywood investor Bruce Willis, according to observers.
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/en/story.html?s=v/nm/19980826/en/industry-blast_1.html

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:12
APH (REPEATS) ID#255226:
Sorry about all the repeats, either my computer or this site is screwed up tonight

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:11
John B__A (APH) ID#77134:
Thanks much, I'm trying to stay loose and hedged but my gold equities, though greatly diminished, still nibble away a bit every day.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:06
crazytimes (From the September Fleet Street Letter) ID#342376:
BUFFETT BEAR

In case you missed it, Buffett has become a bear. In a widely misunderstood and little noticed move, Berkshire Hathaway bought General Re, America's largest reinsurer. Those who bothered to comment said this move affirmed Buffett's bullishness. But before the purchase, as again noted by Grants, Berkshire had assets of $50 billion of which $40 billion was in equities. Now the combined company has $74 billion of which $45 billion is in equities. Big change in position, without selling, without paying capital gains taxes, without triggering a panic. Well done Warren.

Date: Thu Aug 27 1998 00:04
A.Goose () ID#20137:
Copyright © 1998 A.Goose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Wed Aug 26 1998 23:14
SDRer__A ( ) ID#290172:
Copyright © 1998 SDRer__A/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
A.Goose@Glad.your.back! You've been missed. FOX-MAN has gallantly supplied the data ( for which our THANKS FOX-MAN {:- ) )

Yes Fox-man is helping everyone with his efforts. Looks to me like we are in a full blown world currency crisis. Paper gold is at its lows, the price of actual gold bullion

When will actual bullion crush the paper gold market?

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 12:09AM 14406.19 -459.84 -3.09%

This is BIG Nikkei at new lows. Will it close like this? Very bad sign for the U.S. equities and bond markets IMHO.

Kitco is extremely slow tonight ( and it lost one of my messages ... another sign? )

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