Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:59
Gollum (Oh, I almost forgot.) ID#43349:
I hope you guys are noticing that gold is NOT slowly weakening in the overnight markets. Silver either. Ominous, eh?

Good night for sure this time.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:55
africanminer (goldy88) ID#257313:
Good advice...I try my best to distance myself from Ministers. but I have put a few of thier children through school, Foriegn countries are no place to fool around in.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:55
Gollum (Away for another night) ID#43349:
to dream of Falcons and Phoenix and snakes and bears and bulls and other creatures that go bump in the night.

Good night.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:52
Gollum (It take more to buy a cannon ball than a BB) ID#43349:
Some say that the mutual funds will continue to feed the internet mania using their 401K ammunition. Well the higher they go the more it takes to buy more, and I don't see any signs that the depositors are going to be putting it in at accelerating rates. Especially since they are starting to get layed off as the economy slows.

Some may think the mutual funds have deep pockets.

Think again:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:44
MoReGoLd (@Yep, me says the INTERNET thingy is almost history) ID#348129:
Many of those loft stocks will be trading at the price of a Silver Eagle.
Wall Street stocks fell overnight as fears over the global economy, sparked by Brazil's continued woes, reined in the U.S. bull market. The potential end of the Internet sector's frenzied run sent blue chip and over-the-counter stocks tumbling in tandem.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:42
sharefin (RJ - gidday stranger (:-))) - email chatter) ID#284255:
I know you had plenty of available margin, but Waterhouse has put a 100%
margin requirement on these shares..
Yeah, I've been following the margin deal too. I sold out of my internets
even though I wanted to hold them because you can't fight city hall ( unless
you can afford to sue them ) .
The fed calls have not changed but the exchange is pushing brokerage houses
to tighten up their credit to slow down margin buying in unfavored stocks.
House calls are up to the brokerage houses and vary wildly. Someone also
pointed out that the brokerage houses are under pressure from larger clients
to come up with a way to divert more money to them and not let most of the
new money go to Internet stocks.
I use Fidelity and Dreyfus for most of my trades.
Fidelity overnight jerked their margin requirements on most internet stocks
up to 80% and lowered the margin on some other stocks to as low as 30%. I
don't like this.
Dreyfus treated me like an adult. They simply told me that 50% margin, which
was sometimes winked at in the past, is now a dead serious limit and I just
needed to treat it with respect. If I get close to 50% I will get a house
call. I said fine and respected them for what they are doing.
Here's a real conversation I had with Fidelity that demonstrates why I don't
like what they are doing:
Me: I am holding YHOO, the stock is going up, and I just got a house call. I
don't see how this can be. Our margin agreement is 50% and I am well above
that. What is going on?
Fidelity: Yeah, we changed the margin requirements overnight. Now it's 80%.
We just want to protect against sudden falls.
Me: OK, how about this - I will buy more at-the-money puts than I have
stock. That removes all the risk for this stock. It is now below zero risk.
If the stock goes down one dollar we will make big money all the way down.
How about that?
Fidelity: No. Can't do it.
Me: What about IBM?
Fidelity: Oh, that's a good stock. You can margin up to 30% on that one.
Me: So does this mean that Fidelity is now in the business of stock picking
for it's customers? I mean, is Fidelity, which has never been known as a
first rate predictor of stocks, now going to give more of its investors
money to stocks it likes and less to ones it does not like? Isn't that a
little unfair diversion of capital? Is it true that if I give you $100K you
are now saying I can have margin to buy $70K worth of T but only $20K of
ATHM even though T damn near owns ATHM, will never let ATHM die, and ATHM
has better growth and professional recommendations than T?
Fidelity: It's our money and that's how it is.
Me: How do I know which are the blessed stocks and which are the damned? Do
you have a chart on the web somewhere?
Fidelity: No. You got to call us and ask us. It can change every day.
Me: So every day, before I buy a stock on margin, I got to call you and see
if it qualifies. Then, if it does qualify and I buy it, you may change the
rules overnight and give me a house call?
Fidelity: That's how it is.
Me: I'm glad I only gave you a small part of my portfolio. I'll do most of
my business elsewhere because I can't trust this situation. If I buy a
stock, it goes up, and I intend to keep the stock because I don't want to
pay the short term capital gains taxes, then this is not the place to be.
Fidelity may change the rules overnight and sell it for me. I am sure there
are a lot of people forced to sell stock now even though they do not want to
and they are within margin limits agreed upon when they bought the stock.
The final picture: An old lady has tons of T bought eons ago. She lives off
it and can not afford to sell it. It is on margin but within safe limits. T
goes up big ( which it may ) . So Fidelity adjusts the margin up and then sells
the stock for her and without her approval.
I don't want to go there.
You know, it almost seems like a class action suit is in the making. All
buyers have to go through brokers and brokers are together diverting margin
funds to favored stocks and away from stocks they don't favor. If I was
branded with the scarlet letter I for internet I would sure want to howl
for some kind of justice.
YZ, Some of what he says may be true. But the main reason for the higher
margins is these guys don't want to be left holding the bag when this turkey
collapses. And they will be if they don't raise requirments. Of course, the
entire tech sector and all of the nifty fifty stocks are in the same boat,
but they aren't treated equally, so the guy has a decent gripe.
Eagle Sales note: no silver, they are out, and are not producing.
also, January is not over yet:
121,500 oz. / 348,000 coins
Ahead of all of Jan. last year!

Stockmarket Crash Of 2000

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:39
Gollum (Who WAS that masked man?) ID#43349:
Something strange is going on. The shorts have made massive attacks on gold and especially silver. They have shorted it in thin markets, in the middle of the night, in the broad daylight, and thrown every trick they can think of at it.

But prices keep bouncing back.

So WHO is doing all the buying?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:35
Gollum (The Pendulum) ID#43349:
Copyright © 1998 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What goes around comes around.

The US and the Fed some years ago adopted a stromg dollar policy. As time went on and the hot money began to flow in cyclonic fashion toward the US, the seed of the Asian crises began.

Excess dollars in the US economy began to heat the economy and lower unemployment. The Fed, fearing inflation, raised US interest rates.

But not enough. The economy was robust enough to continue to expand. The higher rates with little inflation and a dollar growing in strength created even higher real interest rates which sucked even more foreign wealth into the US.

The Asian situation developed into a full blown crises. Now flight money joined the flow seeking, if not higher rates, at least the preservation of wealth which would be in jeapordy at home.

A so called budget surplus began to grow in government fiscal balances.

Russia collapsed, oil producing countries began to get into trouble, and commodities in general were faced with lack of demand as global economies deteriorated because of little local capital spending.

The Fed finally began to see that it wasn't inflation to be feared, but rather it's opposite.

A pendulum can only swing just so far. The US economy began to suffer as manufactures and producers of real goods found no buyers.

Now the government is beginning to plan policy based upon a budget surplus, will soon become dependant upon it, at a time when trade deficits are beginning to soar to all time highs.

The Koreans are starting to recover, the Japanese are finally getting serious about solving their banking problems, and the US dollar is starting to come under the pressure of the econmic cycle but also the fact that there is a new guy in town, the Euro.

The mighty sweep of the pendulum with it's spectacular deflationary ( for the US ) effect has reached the end of it's stroke.

Now comes the accelerating sweep back.

Already precious metals are showing an unusual resistance to the attack of short interests who haven't yet realized the old games have turned.

The political pressures alone from the baby boomers expecting that something constructive will be done about social security will be awesome. They have been offered the elixer of surplus.

There is only one way they will ever get the dollars they think they are going to get, and that is if each dollar won't buy nearly as much in the way of real goods as they do now.

But, of course, the inflationary back sweep of the pendulum will see to that anyway.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:33
TheMissingLink (Chicken Man) ID#371380:
Not a billion a month. It is up $600 billion in the past 12 months! Total money supply is $6trillion!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:31
Chicken man (EGG on my face) ID#341297:
REad the # wrong ...11% makes more sense....but I still beleive that before this all over we will see the same kind of #

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:25
MoReGoLd (@GOOD one from Kaplan: Internet boom has reached it's peak) ID#348129:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
BUBBLE, BUBBLE, TOIL AND TROUBLE: Barton Biggs, global strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said Thursday that if history repeats itself, the internet bubble is probably over. He noted that the two big speculative bubbles of the past 25 years each lasted for almost exactly the duration of the current internet bubble: in the early 1990s, the bubble in biotech stocks lasted for 99 days with a total rise of 140%, while in 1979, the bubble in gold shares [it will happen again!] lasted 111 days as prices rose 280%. As a sector group, internet stocks rose 260% over a 101-day period. According to Mr. Biggs, I promise you that like all bubbles this bubble will come to a very bad end. The trouble is none of us know when . . . . There is some reason to believe the internet bubble is close to its end. According to Mr. Biggs, if the internet bubble behaves like the gold and biotech bubbles, there will be a 50% drop in the first six weeks, and then another 50% drop over the next six months, for a total 75% drop in 7-1/2 months. Barton Biggs said that the internet bubble was brought on by ordinary people who have very little knowledge about investing and are buying internet stocks purely on the basis of their personal experience with the internet. [I call it the Peter Lynch on LSD effect: people think that if they are able to use a search engine without causing their computer to crash, the search engine equity issue deserves a P/E above 1000.]

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:24
tolerant1 ( ID#20359:
Copyright © 1998 tolerant1/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
President Clinton said Thursday that it was highly likely that a terrorist group would launch a germ or chemical attack on American soil within the next few years: I just want the American people to know what they need to know and have a realistic view of this, the president said in a 45-minute interview in the Oval Office, not to be afraid, or asleep. I think that's the trick. Clinton tells the NEW YORK TIMES that he is carefully weighing a proposal from the Defense Department to establish for the first time a commander in chief for homeland defense of the continental United States. The paper reports that Clinton smiled repeatedly, yet spoke of spending sleepless nights pondering the new security challenges facing America after the end of the Cold War...

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:17
Chicken man (The missing Link (?)) ID#341297:
A billon a month for 11 months ?....What's happening here?....looks like the start of a curriency the good ole USA...heck Brazil's money supply probably didn't grow that fast!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:16
EJ ( relaunched) ID#45173:
Whaddaya think?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:14
Auric (Money Supply (Fast Work, TML) ID#257312:

Looks like M3 grew at about 11% in 1998, and was showing an even faster rate of growth in the last quarter. If the Treasury Dept., Congress, and the public get their way, M3 will increase at an even more rapid pace than the 4th quarter of 1998. We should keep an eye on the money, eh!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:11
RJ (..........) ID#22849:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:10
HighRise (Dallas Morning News) ID#401460:

“Do you approve of the job President Clinton is doing?”

Total votes so far 12,786

NO 63.1%

Obviously not one of the administrations pollsters.


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:08
Charles Keeling (@ crazytimes re:WJC) ID#344225:
Yes indeed. Clinton himself has called the top.
AND....Greenspan agrees.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:08
TheMissingLink (Carville) ID#371380:
Interesting about the unregistered weapon. Could this be the unraveling of the presidency? So many witnesses say they were threatened with violence should they testify or go public.

I wonder where the ballistics may lead!

I cannot seem to find this on AP or UPI though. Is there confirmation of this story?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 23:02
nuggets (can anyone point me to a site) ID#386129:
where I can post a gold coin for sale...tamuchly

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:54
TheMissingLink (The International Millennium Challenge ) ID#371380:
Copyright © 1998 TheMissingLink/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Federal Reserve Board
Remarks by Governor Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
At the Bank Administration Institute, Orlando, Florida
January 21, 1999

The Public's Obligations with Respect to Year 2000

Finally, all of us as members of the public have obligations with respect to Year 2000. The first is to maintain perspective and rely on common sense. As we get closer to the century date change, there will no doubt be more sensational coverage in the media. Our obligation, as always, is to be smart consumers of information and to listen to responsible, not alarmist, voices. Remember, as with anything that has a degree of uncertainty, there will always be those who predict the most dire outcomes. They have generally been wrong in the past, and I expect that they will be wrong again.

Our second obligation is to maintain reasonable and responsible patterns of behavior. There are likely to be some disruptions from the century date change; nothing this complex can be perfectly faultless. However, we should remember that there have been serious disruptions to service in daily life before, from storms, temporary electrical outages, disruptions of telephone service, etc. In general, these prove to be annoying and inconvenient, but nothing more. Finally, we should all recognize that most systems are built to withstand reasonable service demands. If we stress them by changing normal usage patterns, we may experience delays, not because of Year 2000 problems, but rather due to capacity overload.


I believe that financial services industry has made great progress in addressing Year 2000 issues. I am cautiously optimistic that the United States and the global economy will weather the century date change without major disruptions to economic activity. During this next year you will not only need to do your best to continue to repair and test your own systems, but will also need to evaluate the risk of potential failures and the effect of these failures on your business. Further, financial institutions will need to test fallback procedures or work-around processes that mitigate the effect of such failures on their ability to continue to conduct business.

Commentary: So it is a reasonable and responsible behavior for banks to have contingency plans should Y2K overwhelm the system but if the public should change their normal behavior by stocking up on necessities which are usually available but may not be during Y2K, then they are being alarmist and are not maintaining reasonable and responsible patterns of behavior.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:49
Shadowfax (Gold Price Monitor thread on SI) ID#288264:
That Carville story sure is stirring it up over on the Gold Price Monitor thread on SI. Sure makes a good read.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:44
tolerant1 (Shadowfax, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...I saw that earlier and sent it to some folks) ID#20359:
one of whom responded by telling me it was a hoax...

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:42
Dave in CO (Carvile news story possible hoax) ID#229141:

The Free Republic site pulled this item becase it was identified as a hoax.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:33
Shadowfax (Keep him there till he rots) ID#288264:
Copyright © 1998 Shadowfax/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

News @6? W/House Carville Accused/Jailed 4 Domestic Violence The Montgomery County Ledger
By Lee Canular, 20-January-1999 Wednesday

ROCKVILLE, MD -- James Carville, vocal supporter and
confidant of President Bill Clinton, reportedly spent last
Monday night in the Montgomery County Jail after he was
arrested on suspicion of firing a gun into a sofa and
repeatedly plunging a knife into a wall during a fight with
his wife in their suburban home here earlier that evening,
according to local police sources.

Rockville police said neighbors called them to the
Carville home at about 6:40 p. m. Monday evening after
hearing gunshots.

Carville, an internationally known political consultant
and Democrat Party campaign manager, allegedly had twice
discharged a Glock nine millimeter semi-automatic pistol
inside the home, damaged a living room wall with an
oversized hunting knife, threatened the life of his wife,
radio talk show host Mary Matalin Carville, and used
physical force against her.

Rockville police subsequently took him into custody on
suspicion of domestic violence and brandishing a weapon,
both misdemeanors. He was also charged with discharging a
firearm in a negligent manner, a violation which could be
prosecuted as a felony.

Carville, 54, apparently was not shooting at his wife when
he twice fired at the couch, although she was in the room at
the time, said Rockville Police Lt. Bobby Masters. The
woman was not injured, Masters noted, and it did not appear
that the safety of the couple's two young children was ever

Masters also indicated that officers confiscated the
handgun, as well as the hunting knife, two shotguns, and an
AR-15 model semi-automatic assault rifle, and are holding t
hem as evidence as their investigation continues. The pistol
firearm, which has no serial number, is believed to be

After his night's detention, Mr. Carville posted bail on
a preliminary charge of domestic violence in the amount of
$3500 Tuesday morning, pending formal arraignment in
Montgomery County Superior Court on Friday, February 12,

Outside the court room, Carville's attorney, Mr. Harrison
Jackson of the Washington, D. C. firm of Waltham, Jackson
and Curtis, said neither of the Carvilles would be making
public comments on the matter. They both just want to
bring this whole thing to closure as soon as possible, said
Mr. Jackson.

Mrs. Carville did not attend the bail hearing and has not
eturned repeated phone calls.

The couple is known for their co-authorship of All's
Fair: Love, War, and Running for President ( Simon &
Schuster/ Random House, 1994 ) , one of the best selling
campaign memoirs in American history. During their 1992
courtship, Mrs. Carville, nee Matalin, was a campaign
manager for President Bush's re-election effort, and Mr.
Carville worked for the Clinton campaign.

Ami DeCour contributed to this article.

01-20-99 0937EST Copyright 1999 The Montgomery County
Ledger, Inc.

And they leave this guy alone w/Clinton?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:31
James (Envy@Why don't you just short XLK-the SPDR tech sector. MSFT, INTC) ID#69112:
& the other big caps comprise about 60% of the mkt cap. It's cheaper, easier & less dangerous than shorting individual stocks. I was long XLK for a 2 day 6% gain, sold yesterday, but did'nt quite have the nerve to short it.
I still think that it'll take higher interest rates to kill the bull, and until then any retracemente will be limted to less then 10%. Just too much liquidity sloshing around.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:27
Envy (Interesting) ID#219363:
Pasted together a graph of some tech stocks. If it looks like a top and smells like a top, it might be a top. Who can say about these things though. Investors can't expect these things to return 20 percent or more per MONTH forever, I think the end is near.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 22:18
TheMissingLink (M3 in $Billions) ID#371380:
1990.01 4075.55
1991.01 4152.04
1992.01 4192.12
1993.01 4181.11
1994.01 4267.61
1995.01 4360.51
1996.01 4631.26
1997.01 4960.61
1998.01 5427.36

1998.02 5461.88
1998.03 5548.76
1998.04 5594.28
1998.05 5591.29
1998.06 5634.10
1998.07 5644.46
1998.08 5713.43
1998.09 5769.28
1998.10 5841.22
1998.11 5929.56
1998.12 6000.96

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 21:57
Auric (US Government on a Tear) ID#257312:

These guys are bound and determined to open wide the money spigots to save their miserable hides. Both Congress and the President are in big trouble if the economy hits the skids. The public wants the good times to continue, and those in power will do everything possible to make that happen. Looks like inflation to me. If so, look for weaker US$, higher Gold, and rising interest rates. Has anyone got the recent M3 numbers?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 21:50
Envy (Kitco, @ALL) ID#219363:

ALL: Here is Africa Miner's picture reposted.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 21:21
goldy88 (africanminer) ID#389171:
All right,so you know that thinking first in terms of profits like we,occidental people, use to do is wrong.You know too that LAW in these countries is not made for us but AGAINST US.
Always think of Safety for people&assets first.Ambassador or ministry protection is often a double blade sword which can be lethal ( economically and/or physically ) .
Be prepared to fight.
I know Sierra Leone particularly BO&KONO ,towns closed to liberian border and I make a difference between Ivorycoast and liberia/sierra leone.
Good luck.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 21:07
CPO@AU (Y2K ( precautions) in the denver something or other) ID#347268:
Just to be on the safe side get in 4 days of grub ?
and I was under the impression merikans kept grub in their cellars!!!

Denver airport is that the one with pyramids and eyes in the capstones?
saw a pic this week

go shopping

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 20:48
crazytimes (Good call on my part?) ID#344326:
Date: Tue Jan 19 1999 22:10
crazytimes ( Regarding Mike Sheller's comment about when the top is in...... ) ID#344326:
It may be now. Just listen to Slick speak. Everything is perfect....We've never had it better. As I listen to Slick, ( aside from wanting to vomit ) I can't help but see his speach as a contrarian indicator.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 20:13
africanminer (goldy88) ID#257313:
Thanks for the comment. I have lived in Liberia and the Ivory coast for years. 1990 was the first time we ever had to suspend operations. As far as protection is concerned we have that covered...Its a small price to pay when this project earns over $1 million per year. I guess it doesn't hurt that the Ivorian border is only 25 miles a way. check out the pitures: kitco graphic files: Africa-Liberia.JPG

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:37
goldy88 (AFRICANMINER) ID#389171:
Your project seems to be well organised and structured technically.Yes there is gold,yes there is diamonds ones of the nicest in the world and you can have a 8''dredge for both recoveries...Well ,this being said did you plan to invest in 20 M16,armoured landcruisers,nightvision systems... and a team of mercenaries from south africa Outcome Executives .

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:29
Charles Keeling (@ THE SCENE RE: A RARE BULL ON THE POG) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It's a rare breed nowaday's. A real BULL on the POG.

I had to cut & paste it since the URL would be hard to get to. This was taken from the SI, which is public domain:::

January 14, 1998 - Spot Gold $286. 80 up 40 cents - Spot Silver $5. 165 down 2 cents

Technicals -

Fasten your seatbelt. The bears called in Coxie's army in a futile, desperate attempt to bury the gold price. It did not work. A well known bullion dealer sold hard yesterday, trying to defend its massive short position. The Goon Squad has been waiving the bear flag ( see below ) and leading the charge. The specs said yes, and sold heavily too.
Yesterday, the open interest jumped 9100 contracts to 181,502 contracts, which is almost 40,000 off the recent lows. The specs are heavily short and the commercials heavily long. That should be confirmed in tomorrow's CFTC report. The gold market has bent, but not broken, again. We suspect the market is set up for a big rally.

The price action of silver continues to impress. Yesterday, it closed on the high of the day and 12 cents off its lows. Today, the shorts bombed it relentlessly, but it came back ten cents off the low again and closed near the high of its daily range. A bearish silver
market never does this. If the market were bearish, it would close near its lows - open a penny higher the next day and then tank. The bears tried for two days but could not even close the gap left at $5.04. We now have had a very healthy correction in silver and cleaned out weak longs. The market is set for a move up to $5.80 in the weeks to come.

Fundamentals -

Listened to a Scotia Capital Markets conference call today. It was a very good one and I picked up some very valuable tidbits of information that ties into what we have been telling you at Le Metropole. Before, I wander into what we consider the juicy tidbits, I was surprised how uninspired their analysts were about the upward price prospects for
gold and silver for 1999 ( although one does see a rally coming ) . Not one was very bullish for any length of time. They viewed gold strictly from a commodity supply/demand standpoint. Absolutely no delving into the issues that we think should propel the prices of both gold and silver much, much higher.

They did make comment about the European Systems Central Bank, which is an association of sorts for the individual european central banks of those countries in the ECB. There is serious discussion about whether the ECB will control their ( ESCB ) gold reserves. If the ECB does control their reserves, it would in effect raise the reserve backing of the euro to 30% from 15% as the ECB has said there will be no gold sales for the foreseeable future. In December, Midas told you that some kind of discussion of this sort was in the works:

Dec. 10 -We are hearing more and more about a revised, increased gold backing for the euro that might come about in 1999. The number bouncing around is 30 to 35%, up from 15%. Most hot on the idea are the French. There are two reasons for this sort of talk. The first is that a big portion of the euro reserves are denominated in dollars. Many high echelon Europeans think the dollar is tapioca for some time to come. They want a strong euro, not a soft euro. The French, among others, think a more significant gold backing for the euro would be a big plus.

If an announcement such as this is made, which we think has been in the works behind the scenes for some time now, it might be the spark that lifts gold toward our $400 objective. Scotia felt the highest gold would trade this year is $320.

The other tidbit that was very informative was talk that the ECB has started to encourage its underling bullion banks to push lending gold long and restrict shorter term gold lending. In the old days, bullion banks lent gold to producers against their forward production and not to borrowers for speculative purposes. That was before banking became more gogo. Over and over you have heard us tell you of the potential of a gold
market blow up because the gold loans are now too big ( possibly 8,000 to 14,000 tonnes ) . We made note to you last quarter that the central bankers would start reigning in these loans as a result of realizing how large they had become collectively and as a result of the greater lending scrutiny in general after the Long Term Capital blow up. We have also told you that it was our opinion that Merrill Lynch and Union Bank of
Switzerland exited this business because the knew of the lurking danger.

This bit of feedback from Scotia confirms our suspicions that this process would start occurring. The ECB central bankers know the US Fed had to bail out Long Term of their short gold position ( maybe 300 tonnes ) . They know they cannot bail out everyone. Greenspan lowered rates dramatically last year to give financial institutions time to get their houses in order. All the central bankers knew they could not let the
price of gold rise for the immediate period after the bailout because that event could wipe out many of the borrowers who could not find that much gold in a short period of time ( That was the is why they had to bail out Long Term's short gold position in an off market transaction ) .

We have also told you to LOOK for a breaking of the ranks. Not all central banks would sit idly bye forever and let this dangerous situation go on inperpetuum. Enough time has passed since our Fed bailout and it may be they have decided to quietly rectify the situation by slowing down short term gold borrowings. No one, ECB related,individual central bank wanted to act going into the formation of the ECB. Now, it is the ECB doing the acting, and probably breaking ranks with our Fed on the gold
issue, to protect their new banking entity.

Do you think we have made too much of the Goon Squad issue? We received a copy of The Barker Letter from Professor Von Braun today. Here is a quote from it about gold - Jan 14. The Financial Times of London has reported steady sales from Goldman Sachs! The Financial Times! Maybe they are receiving Midas?

They also report that Goldman Sachs is the broker of choice for United States Treasury Chief, Robert Rubin. Barker goes go on to say, however, that the Financial Times does not say Rubin is orchestrating gold selling. But, we do.

There is one other concern that the bullion lenders have to have, as bankers. Their bullion banks borrow short and lend long to producers. If, for any reason, the price of gold takes off, or short term lease rates explode because there is little available gold to borrow ( say in a financial crises ) , the bullion dealers could get squeezed into oblivion.
And, I mean oblivion. That is why the ECB is probably taking action.

This event should be a precipitating bullish one for the gold market for the rest of this year because it will restrict some aforeto available supply of gold for the players to put into the market.

Potpourri and the Gold Shares -

The XAU closed at 68.68 down .84. A move above 70 is needed for the gold shares to regain their bullish momentum. It should be noted that the XAU is acting very well under the bullion and general stock market pressures of the past two days.

The Hong Kong Tael premiums were at 80 cents today which is the highest in quite some time.

Because of unpresendented demand, the U.S. Mint has announced they are out of certain type of coins and won't have any new ones minted until spring. Y2K awarenes has been a contributing factor. Other factors given for this enormous demand was the economic calamities facing Russia, Asia and South America.

Robby Noel, co- owner of the Patriot Metal Trading group - a precious metals wholesaler - said the demand for gold and silver coins has gone up sharply because of fears over the Y2K millennium bug and the prospect for runs on cash and because of the perception of instablility in Washington with the Clinton administration. This party is just starting.

Year end precious metals price forecasts:

Company ----------------------------$ gold --------------- $ silver

ABARE, Sydney ---------------------- 295 ------------------4.95

Barclays Capital, London ------------295 av. --------------4.90 av.

Chase Manhatten Int.-----------------310-------------------5.35

Daiicchi Commod Co Tokyo ------------260-------------------4.90

Dresd Klein Benson ------------------310 ------------------5.00

Frankel Pollak, Jo'burg -------------305 av.---------------5.65 av.

HSBS Capel --------------------------310 av.---------------5.50 av.

ING Barings -------------------------250 av ---------------5.00 av.

JB Were & Son------------------------300 ------------------5.45

JP Morgan ---------------------------280 ------------------none

Macquarie Equities Ltd., London -----310 ------------------5.25

NM Rothschild & Sons ----------------315 ------------------5.65

Precious Metals Ltd -----------------288 ------------------5.40

T. Hoare and Co, London -------------340 ------------------5.70

Tokuriki Hontenm Tokyo ------------- 300 ------------------5.00

Virtual Metals London ---------------295 ------------------5.00

Warburg Dillon Read -----------------290 ------------------5.33

Midas du Metropole -----------405 ------------------9.78

Well, what can we say. We are a little more bullish than most. What we must say is that this is one of the most uninspiring forecasts from a group of pros that we have ever seen.
To us, this is most encouraging. All of these precious metals firms will be bringing in buyers since they are not very bullish at this point in time. That is why Midas says we will go much higher than ANY of them think is likely to happen. This is the kind of anecdotal bullish material we love to find. Do you wonder why they all look so similar?

The two major Swiss banks ( Credit Suisse First Boston and United Bank of Switzerland ) have broken down technically as their uptrend lines established in September have been broken. They have derivative and Brazil exposure. You are all aware that our own Charles Peabody is calling for a banking crash and is calling for a 60 to 80% drop in the share prices of US banks. This is an extraordinary call and was made as most Wall Street analysts remained bullish on the regional and money center banks. The banking index is reeling and closed down ANOTHER 3 1/2% today. We bring this up in Midas because it is what distinguishes us from the firms mentioned above.

We see gold going to $400 plus because of financial chaos, not because of jewelry buying. We say over and over that we see defaults coming, more Long Term Capitals going down for the count, and a severe credit crunch that will terrorize the financial markets. The stock investors of today know no fear. They will soon. Currencies all over
shall come under attack ( the rumor today was that the Brazilian Real may be allowed to float which is contrary to all that they had previously said ) . Peabody has predicted a Mexican devaluation. King Dollar is on a precipice and ready to go off a cliff. As this enfolds, gold demand will soar ( see coin demand above ) . The shorts will have to cover.
In the last Midas e-mail to you, the headline read, We got them right where we want them. Sound the bugle!!!

After the close, the Comex silver stocks were reduced 316,584 ounces and stand at 75,904,506 ounces. There is a play on for silver by some substanial buyer. That means we have a big price move coming. We clearly see it. The firms mentioned above do not. They will.

Most of the Wall Street comments dissed the importance of the Brazilian financial breakdown yesterday. Our David Tice did not as he posted his thoughts to you at the Dos Passos Table. Today, the Brazilian market dove another 9.97%. David is the articulator of the bear case in America. We think he is right on and his forecast of a stock market bubble burst will also be right on the money.


Bill Murphy ( Midas )

After graduating from Cornell University, Bill was a starting wide receiver with the Patriots of the old American Football League and has been around the financial and commodities markets ever since. He owned a futures firm in N. Y. that specialized in precious metals and was a contributor to Veneroso Associates, a global strategic investment firm and producer of the 1998 Gold Book Annual.



Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:21
TechTrader (The Yardeni Poll...sharefin) ID#372180:
Copyright © 1998 TechTrader/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I would venture to guess that the people hitting Yardeni's site are leaning towards the self sufficient...don't believe the hype....conservative types of folks like myself and the poll shows this. Unfortunately, I still think the polls in the main stream media are probably still correct in that most americans just want it to go away and leave Mr. Cliton in office.

My friends are wide ranging bunch of political freaks and most of them feel embarrased about the whole thing. And as we sometimes feel embarrased about certain things we like to just turn the cheek and walk away and hopefully the problem just disappears.

But just as we try to run from the embarrasing issues..or stop them so they don't ruin our our rosy little day...we humans also love a good thing and run to the markets to get that euphoric feeling of being wealthy. So everyones jumping in to try to buy before the next guy and hopefully he buys our share for a higher price. Human nature is the same as it always was....

So even though Yardeni's poll shows a group of folks with some smarts who go agianst the grain ( which I'm happy to see exist ) ...there are alot of very stupid lemmings out there and will run with the pack. I just hope they don't trample everyone on their way to the cliff.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:21
Speed (Iraq Moving Tanks, Troops Into South - BBC) ID#29048:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:20
africanminer (PICTURES ARE IN kitco graphic files: Africa-Liberia.jpg) ID#257313:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:13
Envy (@LongJ) ID#219363:
I'm trading entirely based on the sector, what the graphs are doing in other words. You're right, IBM has the lowest P/E of the bunch at around 30, but it's still gone non-linear. Last year it was trading at about 100, now it's trading at something like 190, most of that run-up happening in the past month or two. Also, I like to spread my bets out across different stocks when I do this, not just the tulips.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:11
longj (@envy) ID#30345:
Big blue P/E is 31. They just posted 12% gains in PROFIT.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:11
africanminer (Envy: pictures and info on my African mining project...thanks for asking) ID#257313:
Copyright © 1998 africanminer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
GRAND GEDEH previously engaged in placer gold mining and related operations in Liberia, West Africa during portions of 1992, 1993, and 1994. GRAND GEDEH is presently engaged in acquiring exploration and mining rights regarding Liberian minerals properties. It intends to conduct on such properties mining and exploration activities for gold, diamonds, and other minerals, and to engage in related activities regarding the development of natural resources in Liberia.

The Government has executed written exploration permits ( the Permits, or a Permit ) offering GRAND GEDEH two ( 2 ) exploration tracts ( block 331 and block 320-A ) covering approximately 60,000 acres each. Copies of the Permits are included herewith as Appendix A. Block 320-A ( Block 320-A ) is located adjacent to the Concession Area ( downstream on the Dubo River system ) . Block 331 ( Block 331 ) is located approximately 2 miles downstream from the Concession Area on the Nuhn ( also known as the Grand Cess ) River system. Principals of MINAFCO and its geologists have previously conducted limited exploration and placer mining operations on Block 320-A. Based on information available to it, GRAND GEDEH believes that the Dubo River system in Block 320-A contains placer gold deposits similar to those located on the adjacent Concession Area.

As more particularly hereinafter detailed, MINAFCO and GRAND GEDEH were forced to cease mining operations on the Concession Area because of conditions of civil unrest occurring in Liberia during the mid-1990's ( ending with a U.N. sponsored peace settlement and democratic elections in 1997 ) . Now that peaceful conditions again prevail in Liberia, the Government has invited GRAND GEDEH to return to Liberia to recommence mining and exploration activities. GRAND GEDEH intends to immediately raise $475,000 in capital to establish and operate Phase I of its planned placer mining operation as hereinafter more particularly described. Based upon the results of Phase I, GRAND GEDEH thereafter intends to expand its operations, to obtain and operate additional Liberian mining and other natural resource related properties, and to conduct additional exploration ( including hard rock exploration ) on such properties.


Liberia was formed as an independent nation in 1847 and is Africa's oldest democratic republic and second oldest independent black nation. Liberia was organized, in part, by black Americans who were instrumental in modeling its original constitution after that of the United States. English is the official language of Liberia and is used for governmental and most commercial business purposes, Liberia however, also has numerous tribal languages that are native to various segments of the population. Based on a common language and these historic ties, Liberia has traditionally maintained close political and economic ties with the United States.

Liberia enjoyed about 140 years of peaceful existence; however, the 1990's have been a period of political instability and civil war. The civil war was extremely disruptive to business operations and caused most international businesses and businessmen to cease operations and leave the country. During 1996, in conjunction with the United Nations, the contesting factions ceased hostilities and formed a new interim government. This was followed in 1997 by U.N. supervised elections leading to the installation of a permanent, democratically elected Government and the restoration of economic, political, and social stability.

Liberia has substantial commercially recoverable natural resources, including gold, diamonds, iron, and timber, and is one of the most highly mineralized countries in the world. Because of the current adverse economic conditions in Liberia, the Government is anxious to encourage economic development - particularly mining and other activities that will provide immediate employment opportunities for Liberian workers. The Government is actively pursuing the investment of foreign capital and management expertise as the best means of expediting economic recovery.

Based upon its prior presence and operations in Liberia, GRAND GEDEH has a good relationship with the Liberian Ministry of Lands, Mines and Energy ( the Ministry ) . The Ministry oversees all Liberian mining, timber, oil and gas, and minerals related rights and activities. GRAND GEDEH believes that its relationships and experience in Liberia, coupled with the present economic and political climate, provide an excellent economic opportunity to profit from the development of Liberian natural resources.


Geologists believe that the Guinean shield, a large Precambrian and Archaean metamorphic mass including gold bearing greenstone was cratonised approximately 2.5 billion years ago. This granite-greenstone terrain, characterized by complexly folded supracrustal volcano sedimentary successions enveloped by domes of granitoids and migmatites, hosts some of the largest paleoplacer gold deposits in West Africa. These geological formations extend into Guinea, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Liberia.

The country rock underlying the exploration area is ferromagnesian rich gneiss, schist, foliated granite, and a crystalline rock consisting entirely of hornblende. These have been intruded extensively by gabbros and undifferentiated granite. Coarsely crystalline pegmatite and stringers of quartz are the minor intrusions. The gneiss and schist are believed to be derived from mafic-laves and volcanic ash. The crystalline hornblende rock is also thought to be an altered periodotite dyke.

The granitic rock is mostly melanocratic gneiss. Outcrops of biotite-quartzdiorite are most common with some local concentration of magnetite within the series. Intrusives of pegmatite are also common. These are composed of graphic granite and quartz. There are also small outcrops of granodiorite.

The rock has a fairly consistent strike direction of 70 degrees with moderately high dip values to the SE or S. The topography of the Tiehnpo Mountains suggest that the NE-SW trending ridges fall within a major fault zone with the large rivers flowing parallel along the fault plane. However, the tributaries impart a dendritic drainage pattern.

Liberia is an equatorial nation on the West Coast of Africa. It receives 70% of its very high annual rainfall during a May through October rainy season. Liberia has hundreds of kilometers of rivers with conditions amendable to suction dredge mining.

Typical to most of the country, the gold of Liberia originates from hydrothermal fluids rising along the conjunctures of faults and shear zones producing areas rich in hydrothermal clays and iron oxides which provide the environment for the best development of coarse-grained crystalline gold. The laterite capping is of pre-fault occurrence, the events of natural erosion folding, and fracturing has transported the capping laterite and quartz to form alluvium deposits along the base of the mountains. The quartz rock has survived the softer rock thus producing gravel bars composed of rounded and semi-rounded quartz aggregates. The gold, which is found along with the quartz, is subjected to transport by stress action and is re-deposited along the courses of the creeks and rivers.

The terrain of Liberia consists primarily of a mature erosion surface that has been shaped by braided river systems formed by wide, slow moving and relatively shallow rivers, usually forming deltas as they near the ocean. Such rivers are ideal concentrators of placer gold because over much of their lengths they neither cut downward nor deposit a lighter than gold erosion load.

Apparently at some time in the recent geologic past the river valleys located on the Concession Area and Block 320-A were either lakebeds or broad, flat flood plains. During the flood plain period, the valley floors were cut by meandering streams, and these gravel filled channels were later cut and refilled many times. During abrupt weather changes, mud and silt buried the old channels under several meters of red, lateritic sediment. This covering was so drastic and sudden that the stream sediments were never exposed to air long enough to oxidize the iron particles, turning them brown or tan. This blue gray unoxidized sediment is what makes the horizon so distinctive. As the rivers continued they're meandering during the annual rainy seasons, gravel from the older stream channels were again picked up and redeposited further down stream. Each time the gravel was moved it was reconcentrated in traps, bends and turns of the new channels. It is this natural reconcentration that has brought the gold content up to economical and commercial values.

The Concession Area and Block 320-A are located near the northeast trending of the Dugbe shear zone ( USGS ) , encompassing part of the Bukon Jedah gold district. The gold potential of the Bukon Jedah gold district remained virtually unknown until the late 1970's when higher gold prices and improved road access attracted local miners to this remote region. The local miners, primarily employing primitive mining methods such as hand tools, suction pumps and wooden sluices, uncovered large alluvial and elluvial placer deposits throughout this drainage system.

The significance of the Bukon Jedah gold district is described in Origin of Mega-Gold Placer Deposits, a doctoral dissertation authored by Boadi, Isaac Opoku P.H.D. ( geology and geochemistry ) , New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, July 1992. The Bukon Jedah gold district is a major placer deposit. The deposit was formed in situ by deep chemical weathering of underlying minerals and is part of a greenstone succession emplaced in a volcanic arc setting. Gold grades range from 0.05 to 8 ppm. Dr. Boadi asserts the similarity between the Bukon Jedah gold district and the Ashanti gold belts located in Ghana. Dr. Boudi's dissertation concludes that favorable conditions exist for a world class mining play. ( See report )

The gold bearing gravel of Block 320-A and the Concession Area is located within the riverbeds ( alluvial deposits ) and also extends well beyond the riverbeds ( elluvial deposits ) in distances from 100 meters to a kilometer, depending on the width of the valley. The upper one to two meters of overburden is usually depleted in value, due to downward migration of the dense gold particles through water saturated soil. The gold bearing, pay zone gravel is deposited on decomposed quartz lying in a fairly even horizon one-half to two meters thick lying on bedrock or on a false bottom of hard blue clay. More importantly, the gold is not attached to rocks or other minerals and thus requires no milling processes or chemicals to separate it from the surrounding gravel.

MINAFCO and its predecessors conducted extensive geological testing on the Concession Area over several years. Studies of the Concession Area ( and the more limited available studies of Block 320-A ) confirm the high quality and accessibility of the gold bearing gravel. The MINAFCO geological reports estimate there are a minimum of 7,280,000 cubic meters of gold bearing placer material in the four ( 4 ) river system ( primarily the Nuhn and Dubo river systems ) located within the Concession Area containing an estimated $123,750,000 worth of gold. This estimate represents only a portion of the Concession Area's potential reserves. ( See Delineation Report )

Since 1979, several companies and consultants, including West Africa Consulting, Geo-Services, Inc., Clayco Petroleum, Chemex Corporation, Permeator Corporation, Tri-R Engineering Corporation, Nils Haagland, P.H. Ramsden, and Shannon and Associates, Inc. have conducted extensive exploration, testing, and/or production on the Concession Area. All of these organizations have made positive reports on the quality and quantity of placer gold deposits on the Concession Area and the potential for a profitable, commercial gold operation. While there has been considerably less exploration work done on the adjoining Block 320-A, the limited information available indicates the presence of placer gold deposits similar in type and quality to those of the Concession Area.

Despite adverse conditions and with permission from MINAFCO and the Government, GRAND GEDEH in 1992 and 1994 purchased and imported two ( 2 ) dredges to conduct tests on the Nuhn River. These tests confirmed previous geological work done on the Concession Area and yielded an average of 300 grams ( 9.64 oz. ) of gold per dredge per day ( recoveries ranged from 1.53 to 7.61 grams per cubic meter ) . GRAND GEDEH also located three ( 3 ) production areas with gold recovery values averaging over 3.7 grams per cubic meter ( 3.7 g/m ) . GRAND GEDEH was able to investigate previous production reports from MINAFCO site managers. Such investigation confirmed that one hundred forty-two kilos ( 4,565oz. ) of gold were recovered in its first year of operation.

The following additional factors indicate the viability of the area for systematic and mechanized mining operations:

A. The largest and most productive gold mining activity for primary vein gold in Liberia has been conducted in Bukon Jedah, which is located a few miles west of the Concession Area and Block 320-A ( Block 320-A is located between the Concession Area and Bukon Jedah ) .

B. The three ( 3 ) main rivers that drain the Concession Area ( including the Dubo River that also drains Block 320-A ) are physically controlled by the Tienpo Mountain range and have yielded some of the best concentration of placer gold in Liberia.

C. The target rivers ( particularly the Nuhn River, Dubo River and Kana creek ) are wide, slow moving and shallow. During the dry season there may be about one-meter of water above the gravel. During the rainy season the water typically rises up an additional one-meter. Because the increased water simply spreads out over a wider area, the river does not move much faster, thus making possible year round operations.

A. Phase I. GRAND GEDEH plans to recommence mining operations with a smaller scale, initial phase ( Phase I ) based upon operation of three ( 3 ) Keene ( or equivalent ) double sluice, floating dredges. GRAND GEDEH owns one such Keene dredge located in Liberia; however, it will likely require substantial repairs ( including a new engine ) before being placed back into service. GRAND GEDEH will purchase the additional dredges and most other equipment and supplies in the United States for shipment to Liberia. It anticipates that once the new dredges and equipment clear customs in Liberia, it will take about nine weeks to transport them to the site and to prepare them and the site for full operation. The estimated capital requirements for establishing and operating Phase I is US$475,000 as more particularly set forth in Operation Budgets, below.

GRAND GEDEH is a newly organized Nevada corporation. Under Liberian law, GRAND GEDEH will be required to form a subsidiary corporation ( GGR Liberia ) organized under the laws of Liberia to own all of its assets and conduct all of its operations located in Liberia, including employing Liberian nationals.

GRAND GEDEH seeks to recommence its Liberian mining operation on Block 320-A and/or the Concession Area. It anticipates requiring Four Hundred and Seventy-five Thousand Dollars ( $475,000 ) to fund the start-up of Phase I. In exchange for such funds, GRAND GEDEH would enter into a Joint venture or would issue capital stock in the parent company.

Terms of the capital stock are:

Persons or entities providing such funds will receive capital stock equal to 33% of its outstanding shares.

Terms of a Joint venture are:

Persons or entities providing such funds will receive 50% of profit distributions until the equity is recovered, at which point profit distributions will be 33% of total.

The joint venture is specific to the funding of this project; has the right to export gold, hold offshore accounts, and the use of expatriate personnel.

GRAND GEDEH will manage the joint venture and will have the tie-breaking vote on the board of Directors.

MINAFCO's average recovery from its 1989 production was 1200 grams of .900 fine gold per day. They operated four eight-inch dredges, one shift per day, six days per week. The four dredges moved about 420 cubic meters per day, which equals a recovery of approx. 2.85 g/m Au. In the summer of 1992, GRAND GEDEH imported two eight-inch dredges of comparable throughput. Test work done on pay gravel with GRAND GEDEH dredge's averaged 1.53 g/m Au to 7.61 g/m Au.

GRAND GEDEH plans to import three ( 3 ) double sluice dredges ( phase I ) and one Alaskan 100 wash-plant ( phase II ) . Work will continue eight hours per day, six days per week. A labor intensive operation is expected since labor costs in Liberia are extremely low, three dollars per day for unskilled labor and ten dollars per day for labor such as welders, divers and carpenters. The production estimate allows for time lost during start up, shift change, and shut down each day, and for scheduled and unscheduled down time. Assuming a conservative one and half grams of gold per cubic meter GRAND GEDEH estimates the following gross operating income:

Phase I Monthly Production: Three dredges ( six sluices ) x 90 c/m per dredge x 25 days x 1.5 g/m = 651.12 oz. @ $315.00 per ounce = $205,000.00

Phase II Additional Monthly Production: Alaska 100 x 900 c/m per day x 25 days x 1.5 g/m = 1085.90 oz. @ $315.00 per ounce = $342,000.00

Phase I and Phase II Total Monthly Production: = $547,000.00

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 19:08
longj (@envy) ID#30345:
Why short IBM their P/E is rather low? They make money, and they pay a small dividend? The others I can understand, but why big blue?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:46
Envy (Trade) ID#219363:
Short YHOO and MSFT. Friday going short Compaq, Dell, Cisco, IBM, and Microsoft even more than I was. Purchasing PUT options out into the early summer months. All of these graphs have gone completely non-linear, the end game is near, it just needs a trigger.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:44
James (Everytime I try to get positive on POG, this comes back & haunts me:) ID#69112:
As long as production costs keep declining, there's no

reason to cut production. Fundamentally, you have to be


Hoping that we get below 280 so I can start buying for a 20 pop.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:25
Charles Keeling (@ gwyz RE: Your Eagles) ID#344225:
Well, here is an offer: If you want to get rid of
5 of your Eagles at 290.00, I will buy them. We can eliminate
the middle man.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:23
sharefin (Swing chart) ID#284255:

Now broken the support line.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:16
Envy (Internet Stocks) ID#219363:
It's entertaining to watch these market guys on television try to defend the worthless Internet stocks they've been purchasing and recommending for the last year or two. A bubble makes everyone look like a genius until it bursts. Somebody left with the money, someone else left holding scraps of paper with the words Ebay, Yahoo, and Amazon on them. Bullish on YHOO and MSFT PUT options, they both did rather well today.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:11
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .238. The 233 day moving average is .246

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:08
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 32.17. The 233 day moving average is 29.82

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 18:01
sharefin (Email Chatter) ID#284255:
The following is the results of a poll that you can participate in at
Dr. Ed Yardeni's website. Even though this is an unscientific poll I
find the results startling. Especially the last one on our illustrious
president. 76%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you would like to participate in this poll go to:

Rate the economic impact of Y2K:

1 ) Minor disruptions. Business as usual. ( 459 ) 15%
2 ) Same impact as natural disaster. Business as usual within a few weeks. ( 396 ) 13%
3 ) Multiple problems will cause modest 6 month recession. ( 708 ) 23%
4 ) Major global recession lasting 12-24 months. ( 933 ) 31%
5 ) Depression lasting 2-5 years. ( 518 ) 17%

How much extra cash do you plan to have on Jan. 1, 2000?

No extra cash. ( 71 ) 12%
One to four weeks more than usual. ( 203 ) 33%
One to three months more than usual. ( 185 ) 30%
More than three months of extra cash. ( 153 ) 25%

US Stocks: Are you bullish or bearish?

1 ) BULLISH ( 122 ) 23%
2 ) BEARISH ( 329 ) 61%
3 ) NEUTRAL ( 85 ) 16%

Over the next 12 months, which asset will offer the best return?

Stocks ( 112 ) 22%
Bonds ( 128 ) 26%
Cash ( 82 ) 16%
Gold & other commodities ( 141 ) 28%
Real estate ( 35 ) 7%

How much of your retirement funds ( 401k ) is in stocks?

Zero-5% ( 157 ) 38%
5%-25% ( 65 ) 16%
25%-50% ( 62 ) 15%
50%-80% ( 68 ) 16%

What is the outlook for the US economy over the next 12 months?

Very good. ( 31 ) 7%
Good. ( 80 ) 19%
OK. ( 161 ) 37%
Bad. ( 121 ) 28%
Very bad. ( 38 ) 9%

Forecast economic growth ( real GDP ) .

The economy will be booming over the next 12 months. ( 26 ) 7%
The economy will grow moderately over the next 12 months. ( 130 ) 36%
Economic growth will be close to zero over the next 12 months. ( 88 ) 24%
A mild recession is likely within 12 months. ( 65 ) 18%
A severe recession is likely within 12 months. ( 53 ) 15%

Forecast the CPI inflation rate over the next 12 months.

It will be higher. ( 114 ) 33%
It will be lower. ( 46 ) 13%
It will be the same as now. ( 71 ) 21%
It will be close to zero. ( 42 ) 12%
Deflation is likely. Prices will be falling. ( 72 ) 21%

Should Bill Clinton resign?

Yes, he should resign. ( 464 ) 76%
No, he should stay in office. ( 143 ) 24%

Are we being manipulated by the mainstream media!!!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:54
BigFisherman (Farfel) ID#260279:
Copyright © 1998 BigFisherman/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
An astute perspective. The anti-gold conspiracy is just a bunch of old money bankers making money on the age old debt cycle. They are just waiting for a time to break ranks a leave the new money central bankers, who are clueless, holding the bag. Us Soros watchers have been seeing signs of this for a while. It may not happen soon, but it is inevitable. I'm sure that they would love to accumulate more gold at lower prices, but they are currently buying tickets on the lifeboats. Once the old money breaks ranks and starts to devour thier own young, we will see a nice little rally. Perhaps XAU up 300-400% over 3 to 4 months.

I prefer to sit in the lifeboat and wait. I am very patient.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:45
MM (Gollum) ID#347167:
Thank you for another contribution to the Kitco lexicon:
aurpkus : n., fiscal mirage, financial entity created through political expediency and or accounting slieght-of-hand. see also: budget surplus...
I like it! ; )

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:40
TYoung (Gollum....) ID#317193:
This may look like direction to you...not me...them birds need to fly high and then higher...or take a rest to prepare for such flight. FND....week from Friday...soar or rest.

We watch this new bird flying together. Yes!


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:38
farfel (Revised Opinion: Is a Gold Bull Possible? Answer: Maybe.) ID#341226:
Copyright © 1998 farfel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I continue to have great doubts about the possibilty of a gold bull so longer as Greenscam and Robbin Rubin remain at the helm of America's financial policy.

Their incessant manipulations and subversions of the free American capital markets are best epitomized in their resolute anti-gold activities over the past several years.

HOWEVER, that said, I now believe there is tremendous likelihood that several major chronic gold shorters will break ranks from the gold short conspiracy. If this should happen, then it may not be in either Greenscam or Robbin Rubin's power to do anything about it. Although Greenscam has said publicly that the government would be ready to mobilize gold in order to contain its price, would he STILL say this if only HALF the number of investment houses and hedge funds came running to him in the next opposed to ALL OF THEM in the LTCM crisis?
In fact, if several investment houses actually came forward and strongly cautioned him against intervention owing to moral hazard or whatever, would he still be inclined to mobilize gold?

The most interesting thing about the LTCM crisis is this: it FORCED the investment houses to reveal to each other the TRUE state of their financial condition with warts and all ( as opposed to the beautified numbers presented by their accountants ) , not to mention an opportunity to provide a clearer look at the TRUE financial condition of major hedge funds in America. Apparently, Greenie demanded these revelations as a condition for the Fed to involve itself in its de facto bail-out.

As it turns out, some houses and funds were in much better shape than others. For those houses and funds that are in the best shape, a gold buy panic will afford them the opportunity to bury/destroy competition that is not in such great shape nor able to come up with the necessary gold to cover their short positions. The net effect: financial consolidation at its cheapest!

Why would a formerly cohesive group of gold shorts break ranks?

Competition, of course, is the ostensible reason. Yet, I think there is one more notable and compelling reason.

When the gold short cartel was formed years ago, it was a simple, straightforward, brain dead way to obtain cheap financing and invest in higher yield treasuries and/or stocks, derivatives, etc. Never did this cartel ever imagine a day would come where the very survivability of major Wall Street investment houses and enormous hedge funds would become an issue. Yet, speaking metaphorically, in any life threatening situation where there are only so many lifeboats available, it is essentially inevitable that certain parties will do whatever is necessary to ensure that they have the requisite lifeboats, even at the expense of former friends and business associates ( See TITANIC, the movie ) . Cartels are generally formed amongst friends and associates in an environment of calm congeniality...they fall apart during desperate times of every man for himself. ( See OPEC ) . They fall apart because certain cartel members feel they can survive the resultant turmoil of disunity which inevitably destroys others in the group...and in fact, the stronger members believe they will ultimately benefit from it.

Ironically, the gold shorts are facing this crisis of disunity just at the time when gold exponents have never appeared to be so united in purpose and resolution.

If I were a gold short today, I would spend every waking moment looking over my shoulder...and I would be most supicious of my former buddies and partners in crime.



Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:33
Gollum (Gotta go) ID#43349:
but I'll be back later.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:25
Gollum (Goblins) ID#43349:
Remember the gold goblin? He always used to appear right after the guys in NY came back from lunch and did hs best to short gold down for the afternoon.

Perhaps now he is a silver goblin.

If he was hoping to get silver down thru the support at 5.05-5.10, he failed. Of course, now he is shorter than before.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:24
cherokee () ID#343449:

crude oil up 5%....

why? over-supply.....all the funnymentals say down...
yet she flies....


the smell of war in the balkans and the middle east.....



Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:23
Supernaut (TechTrader) ID#288115:
You might want to try The Austrian 100 coronae, which is a modern re-strike of the original issues. The fine gold content of this coin is .9802 - I just purchased one for a close friend through Franklin Sanders for $291.80 and spot gold was trading at $287.60. Try this link to Franklin's site.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:10
Gollum (@TYoung) ID#43349:
This chart is a day old, but just add another green dot on the end.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:07
Gollum (@TYoung ) ID#43349:
Direction they have, they do. Ups and downs, but each new down is not as low as the last. First the wedge, then the breakout.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:06
gwyz (@TechTrader...) ID#44161:
Copyright © 1998 gwyz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I may be mistaken, but I believe the spot fees are much higher for silver because gold can be confiscated, silver cannot ( has not ) be confiscated. I believe you should have an equal mix of both, and stop worrying about the fees because they will continue to go up anyway, and both silver, and especially gold, are a good buy right now even with the current fees. If you really want to get into PMs, get in now. Then, remember I told you it will be a rough ride, just hang in there till payoff time. It *will* come sooner for you than for the rest of us who have been on this rollercoaster for awhile now.

Good luck to you and your investments.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:04
Gollum (Frown) ID#43349:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:02
Gollum (Here's a puzzle) ID#43349:
How will the US be able to solve it's social security problem using aurpkus while at the same time having record high deficits?

Perhaps polotcal motives will arise for not continueing the policy of the strong dollar, eh?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 17:00
JP (The Transport Index and A/D line on NYSE are sinking--Did you know? ) ID#25198:
Did you know that the big bear market of 1973-74 started on Jan 21,1973.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:55
TechTrader (Y2K will disrupt the easy life I'm sure) ID#372180:
Please don't think I'm ripping on those who are preparing for some rough times. I am prepping my home too. I'm just whining about paying more than the spot prices and trying to figure out a way to minimize my cost basis. What about those silver bars that are about 4 inches long or so andimprinted with 9999 pure silver, etc? Are those premiums lower per ounce?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:53
Paul Gold (DROOY December quarter results) ID#21484:
Durban Roodepoort profits are up 44% in US$ terms. See the full quarterly results released only hours ago at

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:51
Savage (...EJ...) ID#290202:
Ever hear of Brazil-Nuts?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:35
gwyz (@TechTrader...) ID#44161:
Copyright © 1998 gwyz/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Your approach to the purchase of gold is the best way to do it at current gold prices. I think that before the Summer, gold will either sky rocket or tank. Today I began a different approach to it. I am going to sell half of my golden eagles over the next few weeks/months whenever the spot hits 290 or above. I had originally paid for them at the beautiful low last year at 275. Im out with no loss and I still have half of my Bullion.

By the way, there are relatively few Y2k'ers. The majority of us are reasonable open minded people who are trying to get you to understand that you should prepare for about a week of disrupted services *in the middle of the Winter*. You simply need a weeks worth of food, water and a source of heat. That is something you would do if you were warned about a major storm coming. To argue with that is ignorant, foolish and a danger to you life.

Yes, there are people stockpiling gold and silver. They are not all Y2k'ers. *Many* of them are wealthy financial types who see the end of this current fiat monetary system coming very soon. They are seriously concerned about the Greenback being utterly worthless *without* the year 2000 problem. This is not about Y2k. It is about the world, and payback for years of financial corruption.

But you are correct. The fees for PM purchases are going up, and they will continue to go up. So if you are interested in going for what may very well be a big time gold rally, buy now if you can. Dont dollar cost average with this one as gold will go up as the year 2000 problem, and world financial concerns continue to raise demand for the product, and that will not ease the fees any time soon.

Just a bunch of IMHO : )

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:35
TYoung (Gollum...) ID#317193:
A request: either take the hoods off of both birds and let them take wing or put them both in the cage for a rest until February. As of the present, neither seems to have any direction.

EB...oh my...this is the new and different bull market...the don't fight the Fed bull...AG just told us that we are going down hill for a while...take the profits until after May...we watch this new bull market together. Yes?


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:17
Cobra (Chart Indications............) ID#34459:
Tommorrow looks to be a tough day for all but the gold stocks. All of the charts were headed down at the close, NASDAQ is really sick.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:15
SlangKing (@Silver Volatile) ID#246228:
Silver did it's dip 5 mins after I left my desk to travel the 200 miles home!
Tried its bounce up butfailed to breach 520 properly, back to sideways now?
But I hear the XAU Hobgoblins will be out to cause mishchief on Monday.
Lets see what they get up to then.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 16:11
jims (Can something be made of it) ID#252391:
For once the XAU managed to rally while the DOW dropped. In fact the XAU seemed to run pretty much counter to the DOW all day today.

The other item of note is the very light number of postings here on the Kitco board. Are Kitcoites tired I suspect so Are they complacent? very likely - but does it matter?

Volumn on most gold miners was lighter than average. I would seem there is not very much interest in this sector or expectation that gold and the related shares will do much in the short term. I like it when sentiment is so obvious.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:59

COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Jan. 21

Gold 808,401 + 0 troy ounces
Silver 75,475,382 + 0 troy ounces
Copper 99,819 + 67 short tons

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:59
EJ (Brazilian Bancos betting on real-underlying derivatives? ) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
What are these guys nuts?

Brazil shares end down 4.6 pct as the real weakens

SAO PAULO, Jan 21 ( Reuters ) - Brazilian stocks ended down 4.6
percent Thursday as the local currency weakened 7.6 percent amid a persistent wave of dollar outflows, even
though the government's austerity package had cleared a crucial hurdle in Congress, traders said.

Equity prices also came under fire amid speculation that investment funds faced potential difficulties after
high-risk derivative funds run by Banco Boavista Interatlantico posted huge losses in the wake of last week's
devaluation of the real, they said.

Sao Paulo's blue-chip Bovespa index ( ^BVSP - news ) closed at 7,321 points. Shares were ripe for
profit-taking, having risen 13 percent in January as of Wednesday's close, traders added.

``There were a number of reasons behind today's falls, one being the currency's weakness,'' said a trader at
Solidus brokerage. ``Talk that some other banks or funds may be in trouble after betting heavily on the
currency and interest rates before the devaluation also frightened some investors.''

The real dropped on Thursday amid concern that a daily net dollar outflow exceeding $300 million from the
currency market was drying up inventories of the U.S. currency held by private banks.

Dollars have grown scarcer in foreign exchange markets since the Central Bank allowed the real to float freely
last week, ending its regular intervention with dollar sales when the real came under pressure.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:58
Cobra (Nice Close for the XAU) ID#34459:
Pulled back intraday and filled the gap made at the open and made a nice run right at the close. This is a good signal for tommorrow to be up.
Still gonna go up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:45
MoReGoLd (@YIKES - There are still winners out there --- 10.8% nickel --- stock UP 169% !!!) ID#348129:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thursday January 21, 11:14 am Eastern Time

FULL TEXT-Nuinsco reports nickel assays

( Full text of press release from ISDN Wire Service )


TORONTO, Jan 21 - Nuinsco announced today partial assay results from diamond drill hole #LR-99-1, on the Company's 100% owned property about 120 km northeast of Mattagami near Lac Rocher, NW Quebec. These results are from the bottom mineralized portion of the drill hole where the highest mineral values are located. At the base of the hole a 3.2 meter ( 10.5 ft ) massive sulphide section ran 10.8% nickel. The lower 19 meters ( 62.3 ft ) assayed 3.68% nickel within a longer section of 37 meters ( 121.4 ft ) that ran 2.47% nickel. The 19 meter section contains significant but lower grade copper mineralization in the order of 1%. Drill hole #99-1 was targeted to test a geophysical response related to nickel-copper mineralization obtained during a diamond drilling program conducted by Nuinsco in 1998. The drill hole intersected 175.7 m of a gabbroic intrusion hosting disseminated and massive sulphide mineralization. Typically the intrusion contains 3 to 25% pyrrhotite and pyrite. At the footwall contact a band of massive sulphide, 3.2m wide, occurs. In the more heavily sulphide mineralized parts of the intrusion pyrrhotite, pyrite, pentlandite and chalcopyrite are observed. A complete set of assays has yet to be received by the Company but the 39 results received so far provide ample evidence of strong nickel/copper sulphide mineralization within the Lac Rocher gabbroic intrusion. The Company regards this result as a new and very significant discovery in a region that has received very limited exploration. These very encouraging results require a full evaluation of the economic potential of the discovery and the best strategy for follow up work. Nuinsco recently completed a rights offering to shareholders which raised $1.1 million. Nuinsco Resources Limited is an exploration and development company with projects in northwestern Ontario ( Rainy River ) and northwestern Quebec ( Lac Rocher ) . Both properties are 100% owned by Nuinsco. Shares of Nuinsco trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NWI. U.S. S.E.C. exemption: 12g3-2 ( b ) #82-1846.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:24
Charleston Gold Bug (HM) ID#344389:
HM 500,000 plus share block trade @ 10 3/4

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:24
Sovereign (SO SOOORRRRY) ID#275201:
The virus alert I posted earlier was circulated internally by a major corporation and was passed on to me with the request that I warn my internet friends. NAIVE! Never Accept Information. Verify Everything.
'Umble apologies from a right sap...

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 15:09
Dutchman (XAU/POG) ID#215235:
Why is the XAU NOT confirming the POG? Doesn't XAU normally lead the POG?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 14:50
2BR02B? (fun at home) ID#266105:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 14:18
24K (Mooney Re: Mean Queen) ID#81124:
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I'll beholdin' on to these beauties for quite a while.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 14:09
Chrisophilos (A screaming buy...Nuinsco Resources, TSE-NWI) ID#277302:
Copyright © 1998 Chrisophilos/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This could be the next Diamond Fields folks!

Thursday January 21, 11:14 am Eastern Time

FULL TEXT-Nuinsco reports nickel

( Full text of press release from ISDN Wire Service )


TORONTO, Jan 21 - Nuinsco announced today partial assay results from diamond drill hole
#LR-99-1, on the Company's 100% owned property about 120 km northeast of Mattagami near
Lac Rocher, NW Quebec. These results are from the bottom mineralized portion of the drill hole
where the highest mineral values are located. At the base of the hole a 3.2 meter ( 10.5 ft ) massive
sulphide section ran 10.8% nickel. The lower 19 meters ( 62.3 ft ) assayed 3.68% nickel within a
longer section of 37 meters ( 121.4 ft ) that ran 2.47% nickel. The 19 meter section contains
significant but lower grade copper mineralization in the order of 1%. Drill hole #99-1 was
targeted to test a geophysical response related to nickel-copper mineralization obtained during a
diamond drilling program conducted by Nuinsco in 1998. The drill hole intersected 175.7 m of a
gabbroic intrusion hosting disseminated and massive sulphide mineralization. Typically the
intrusion contains 3 to 25% pyrrhotite and pyrite. At the footwall contact a band of massive
sulphide, 3.2m wide, occurs. In the more heavily sulphide mineralized parts of the intrusion
pyrrhotite, pyrite, pentlandite and chalcopyrite are observed. A complete set of assays has yet to
be received by the Company but the 39 results received so far provide ample evidence of strong
nickel/copper sulphide mineralization within the Lac Rocher gabbroic intrusion. The Company
regards this result as a new and very significant discovery in a region that has received very limited
exploration. These very encouraging results require a full evaluation of the economic potential of
the discovery and the best strategy for follow up work. Nuinsco recently completed a rights
offering to shareholders which raised $1.1 million. Nuinsco Resources Limited is an exploration
and development company with projects in northwestern Ontario ( Rainy River ) and northwestern
Quebec ( Lac Rocher ) . Both properties are 100% owned by Nuinsco. Shares of Nuinsco trade
on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NWI. U.S. S.E.C. exemption:
12g3-2 ( b ) #82-1846.


More Quotes and News:
Nuinsco Resources Ltd ( Toronto:NWI.TO - news )

They also have an advanced Gold/silver/Pt/Pd property in Northern Ontario. I've owned the stock for the past 2 years, however, do your own due dilligence.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:53
Mooney* (Silver Volatile) ID#350194:
What made Silver drop like a rock after 1:00? ( Look on Kitco's 24 hour spot chart )
24K - The queen looks MEAN on that Gold Coin!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:51
TechTrader (Bullion Buys) ID#372180:
These damn Y2K'ers are screwing up my dollar cost averaging approach to bullion purchases! I'm hearing they're pushing premiums up. How can I buy gold and silver bullion or bars or whatever and minimize the premium costs associated with it. I want to get physical gold and silver but I don't want it in a form that requires assaying. I would think the immediate answer would be to buy 1 once gold instead of the smaller units, but this doesn't work for silver since I'm hearing half the cost of the eagles are premium now.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:46
24K (1999 Maple Leafs are shipping) ID#81124:
I just received some. They have a little 20 Year anniversary mark on the maple leaf side. Buy lots. They are sure to become a collector's item. :- )

I FTP'd a picture. Hope it shows up.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:41
MM (virus hoaxes) ID#347167:
FYI page - links

Computer virus myths

Returned mail hoax - detail

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:40
Sovereign (Psilver Psyched) ID#275201:
Tell that to IBM who made the announcement. AOL has said that the second of these two virus' is very dangerous and that there is NO remedy for it at this time. Simply passing on the information.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:36
Cobra (NASDAQ Market) ID#34459:
The 60 minute chart of the NASDAQ market has an island reversal on the chart for yesterday. This is a rare chart formation and is as bearish a chart pattern as you can get. We are going to see much smaller Tulips

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:32
Gollum (gap filled, please stand by...) ID#424140:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:29
Psilver Psyched (Sovereign) ID#15482:
You can't get a virus by simply reading e-mail.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:09
Sovereign (VIRUS WARNING!!) ID#275201:
If this has been posted already...apologies. If you receive an e-mail titled It Takes Guts to Say Jesus DO NOT open it. It will erase everything on your hard drive. This is a new, very malicious virus and not many people know about it.

Also, do not open any mail that says RETURNED OR UNABLE TO DELIVER. This virus will attach itself to your computer components and render them useless. Immediately delete any mail items that say this.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:08
Mooney* (OLEMAN) ID#348169:
Gusto - Thanks for the oleman update. Interesting story also from him about the 73 year old 'newbie' option trader.
oleman's comments speak for themselves but my slant is that this is another indication that the time frame is shortening. With some sense now being knocked into a few internet players it may only take a feather to drop before the panic ensues.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 13:03
Mike Stewart (Gusto) ID#270253:
Copyright © 1998 Mike Stewart/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have been a bull since October, and have done well. My timing models are still healthy...but I took a big chunk of money off the table yesterday. Oldman is a wise old owl. I agree with him. I have no nifty- fifty type stocks...only turnarounds, precious metals and cash. This is no time to be a pig.

Don Hays of Wheat First is another smart market veteran. He has stops on the market based on 4 of the following 6 breaking.

1. Nasdaq comp 1966 2.Nasdaq New Lows over 101 3.New York New Lows over 109 4.Value Line Arithmetic 864.95 5. Russell 2000 387 6.S&P500 1188

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 12:54
Speed (Durban Deep (DROOY) upgraded) ID#9337:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 12:26
Gollum (Time to fill the gap?) ID#424140:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 12:16
Gusto (OLEMAN Bids Us Sayonara) ID#42999:
Copyright © 1998 Gusto/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It appears OLEMAN will leave us for a while. I have always found his posts both interesting and instructive, once you take his short term trading style into account. There aren't too many posters that both tell us what they are doing and make money quite consistantly while doing it . He and APH are in such a group and are valuable teachers. This from AVID:

oleman... Wed, Jan 20, 10:19AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Liquidated longs on open today. It may go up another 20% from here. Heck, it may DOUBLE from here. I've done well for the last 3 months on the long side,
but I do not wish to participate in a market that is gapping higher repeatedly with bullishness at a high for the decade. With America worshipping its great leader,
and our leaders in Congress prayerfully supplicating before the divine Greenspan, and SS $$ just waiting to be poured in, there is no telling how high this thing c an
go. I am depending on my Financial Mgr. to handle the family jewels, but my trading account is outa here for a while. Good luck all. You're swimming amongst the
sharks now. Big $$ will be made and lost in the days immediately ahead.

oleman... Wed, Jan 20, 10:32AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
hagar, I have no way of analyzing he presen situation. I know its going higher, I just dont know when it will stop. I have nothing to compare it with, because
nothing similar to the present situation has existed since the dhys of the Roman Empire. Not since then has the vast majority of the world's leading power actually
WORSHIPPED their leaders. Anyone who doubts that this is the case has been asleep for the last 16 houjrs, at least. The power of True Belief to move the
masses must never be undreestimated. But, since I am toatlly atheistic vis a vis the religion of Klintonism, I stand aside to watch in amazement. bbmmmml.............

oleman... Wed, Jan 20, 10:54AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
hagar: I DID say I would be long at the top. I did not foresee at that time that I would be so completely nauseated by what is happening in the country my
ancestors loved and built. The top is not in. It may be in in 5 minutes, or it may be 5 months. I have no way of knowing, because it is unprecedented. I am going to
completely remove myself personally from the market for the nonce. Most of my $$ is managed for me. I do not have to trade, and i choose not to trade for a
while. it may very well double from here. The sheeple really believe that it will happen if their leaders will it to be so. It may very well continue until Hillary is
elected. I do not choose to be involved here, simply because it sickens me. But I will never underestimate the power of the people who control the banks,
governments, and nuclear arsenals of the western world. I dont have to join in worshipping them, however. BBML--------------gone.

oleman... Wed, Jan 20, 12:39AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
Just had lunch at clubhouse with some Happy Campers. On guy, 73 yrs old, has been living off muni-bond interest for about 15 yrs. ( Over $10M in munis ) . He
recently opened an account to trade OPTIONS. He bought $50k worth of MSFT calls last week, anticipating a bump on earnings.: ) : ) A quick double.: ) He says
options are great for someone as old as he is, cause, even tho the mkt is going up 25-30% a year, he needs to move faster, ergo he will just buy calls and count
his money.

oleman... Wed, Jan 20, 12:42AM CST ( -0600 GMT )
So we have a guy who hadnt even bought a share of stock in over a decade, now trading OPTIONS. And rolling in $$$ as a result.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 12:15
tolerant1 (JTF, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...regarding pawn not forget to keep an) ID#20359:
eye on PWN in the USA...yup uh huh...

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 12:08
sharefin (Foreign Nations Trail US On Y2K Fixes, Expert Says) ID#284255:

I'd like to see the CIA report.^o-o^

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 12:07
rhody (@ EB re your sheesh post. Mr. D. Canay, of the Commodity desk) ID#408236:
of COMEX? spews the usual Wall St. horsefeathers about the gold market.
I wonder how short he is on gold.

Try this: gold production: 2550 tons per year
gold consumption: 3100 tons per year

The price declines only because CB leased gold is well over 500 tons
per year. When leased gold becomes expensive, or unavailable then
we have a shortage and a short overhang. Then we shall see how gold
performs as an investment vehicle.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:59
lady_bug (PreACHER) ID#320202:

thanks again, got pom, got laptop, will post from vienna
tallyo there I go

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:57
Cyclist (Nem) ID#339274:
long 19 1/16

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:56
EB (Panda & Neotw) ID#187109:
powder form? In small containers? Is it legal? ;- )

got coke?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:51
Savage (...have you noticed...) ID#290202:
It's becoming macho to NOT prepare for Y2K.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:51
Mooney* (Flatline - Starting a pulse?) ID#348169:
Just after I mentioned today's Gold chart looked the same as Tuesday's it changed and started heading north. Hmmmmm. Maybe I should post more often. Personally I hope Cobra's limit up days hold off a while longer. I've got a house or two to sell before I'll be comfortably loaded up. THEN GOLD and SILVER - To The MOON!
The tendency of an event to occur varies inversely with one's preparation for it. ---David Searles
Did this guy forward view Y2K or was he talking about my investment timing?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:47
panda (NTEOTWAWKI) ID#50148:
I think Bart made reference to rhodium some time ago. I believe it comes in a powdered form in small bottles.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:47
EB (rational exhuburent profit taking....) ID#187109:
I like it......

One thing for can bet there will be sharks in the tank buying the netcrazestox soon.......the same ones who sold the bejeeesus out of 'em...........tomorrow? Today Monday? will happen...the run is not over. It has to reach such sick exhuberence and such lofty heights as to make the fall REAL BaaaaaaD....uh-huh. Numbers like 60% nowadays don't seem to bother people................. ( don't get me wrong, it bothers me ) .......hseehs....... the charts


go golf

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:46
panda (NTEOTWAWKI) ID#50148:
Internet money will probably 'rotate' in the the broader market. Probably looking for 'undervalued' traditional plays. SPX will probably give the clue. Even though gold has had something of a bounce, commodities just don't appeal to the masses. Check out the Feds Beige Book report at look at what they say about the semiconductor sector. This sector usually leads the rest of the tech sector. Looks kind of ominous. Also note their comments about commodities.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:36
NTEOTWAWKI (@rhodium) ID#389387:
Is crashing up!
Who sells this PPM?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:22
Selby (Y1K) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

By Ashleigh Brilliant ( )

Canterbury, England. A.D. 999.
An atmosphere close to panic prevails today throughout Europe as the millennial year
1000 approaches, bringing with it the so-called Y1K
Bug, – a menace which, until recently, hardly anyone had ever heard of. Prophets of
doom are warning that the entire fabric of Western
Civilization, based as it now is upon monastic computations, could collapse, and that
there is simply not enough time left to fix the

Just how did this disaster-in-the-making ever arise? Why did no one anticipate that a
change from a three-digit to a four-digit year would
throw into total disarray all liturgical chants and all metrical verse in which any date is
mentioned? Every formulaic hymn, prayer, ceremony
and incantation dealing with dated events will have to be re-written to accommodate
three extra syllables. All tabular chronologies with
three-space year columns, maintained for generations by scribes using carefully
hand-ruled lines on vellum sheets, will now have to be
converted to four-space columns, at enormous cost. In the meantime, the validity of
every official event, from baptisms to burials, from
confirmations to coronations, may be called into question.

We should have seen it coming, says Brother Cedric of St. Michael's Abbey, here in
Canterbury. What worries me most is that
‘THOUSAND' contains the word ‘THOU,' which occurs in nearly all our prayers, and
of course always refers to God. Using it now in the
name of the year will seem almost blasphemous, and is bound to cause terrible
confusion. Of course, we could always use Latin, but that
might be even worse -- The Latin word for ‘Thousand' is ‘Mille' – which is the same as
the Latin for ‘mile.' We won't know whether we're
talking about time or distance!

Stonemasons are already reported threatening to demand a proportional pay increase
for having to carve an extra numeral in all dates on
tombstones, cornerstones and monuments. Together with its inevitable ripple effects, this
alone could plunge the hitherto-stable medieval
economy into chaos.

A conference of clerics has been called at Winchester to discuss the entire issue, but
doomsayers are convinced that the matter is now one
of personal survival. Many families, in expectation of the worst, are stocking up on holy
water and indulgences.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:20
Preacher (lady bug and ESP) ID#225273:
Actually I don't have ESP. When I tried to get back to you earlier, the site was so busy I gave up. Today I had the time and the stie was running smoothly.

Have a good time in Vienna. I'm going to Vancouver on Saturday for the mining investment conference. But I'm sure Vienna is nicer.

Take care, and send us message from Vienna, if possible. Don't forget to take your Kitco password with you so you can post from a computer over there.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:18
NTEOTWAWKI (@EB double sheesh back at ya) ID#389387:
Sheesh sheesh.
I guess you could call a 60% drop in the value of a stock over 10 days profit taking. The term crash denotes a loss during a finite period of time. OK, so I I'll exercise my artistic license and concede your sheesh.

Rational Exhuberant Profit Taking.

How's that. Sheesh spelled backwards is hseehs.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:16
Preacher (crazytimes & the markets) ID#225273:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

My opinion is that yesterday's rally in the Dow and the NASDAQ were failures. The Dow did not make a new high and the NASDAQ closed up just a touch after being quite high in the morning.

I think today's action is just a mop-up detail before we head down, significantly down.

Notice the Dow Transports have not even come close to reaching the old all-time high set last Spring. And Dow Theory says that both the Industrials and the Transports must make new hights to confirm a bull market.

As things stand, the bear market signal from last August is still in tact. The rally since October has been one huge emotional outpouring unsubstantiated by any reality.

It's either over now or very soon.

In gold and the metals, we should see just the inverse. The new bull market began on September 1. I think we've just seen a successful test of those lows, which held. And we should see leg two to the upside either now or very soon.

That's not the gospel, but it's the best I can do.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:13
Aldebaran (what does it mean?) ID#86138:
according to Kitco and spot IS higher than gcg9 I am confused is this good or bad or what?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 11:05
EB (sheesh.....) ID#187109:

and gold will soar when the netstox crash........ ( N-O-T )

A little clue.....can you say p-r-o-f-i-t-t-a-k-i-n-g? They have taken back most of what they gave up this am...........on HUGE volume. These stox will not crash anytime soon and gold will not soar anytime soon and George Soros will still put his pants on one leg at a time and takes a sh!t just like everyone else..........soros schmoros.......


away......from wishful thinking



The market rallies 70 cents on reports of physical buying,

but it has a habit of falling $3.00 on the first sign of

trouble, said Scott Mehlman, bullion dealer with Credit

Lyonnais Rouse. We still view any rally as a selling


Investment demand has been on a steady decline, he said.

It's not really a political or inflation hedge anymore, he

said. As long as production costs keep declining, there's no

reason to cut production. Fundamentally, you have to be



ASB.......... ( not so tomorrow ) ................ ( kerplunk ) ........................ ( ouch ) .......... ( ugh ) ....................... ( sob ) ...............

if'n ya can't beat 'em............... ( ? )

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:43
lady_bug (Preacher - POM) ID#320202:
this is weird, we have a ESP going, I swear, I just went on to kitco to send you a message, I am tracking POM daily and am ready to get in, wanted to ask you your opinion ,if it is still ,ok, and there I saw your message, Thank you very much !
away to get POM , than packing in 6 hours my plane leaves for Vienna

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:40
NTEOTWAWKI (@crazytimes & Excite) ID#389387:
Which is being acquired by At Home Cable ISP at the top of the internet tulip. Why would a company with negative earnings buy this internet tulip at the top of the game and not wait a few weeks to buy it at pennies on the dollar is beyond my comprehension.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:39
crazytimes (Spot now pulling futures up?) ID#344326:
I just read that Spot gold is higher than March Gold. This is very good, yes?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:31
crazytimes (@ the Preacher) ID#344326:
Any comments on the markets? Always good to see you arrive on Kitco.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:29
Preacher (Lady Bug & Polymet) ID#227290:
Copyright © 1998 Preacher/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lady Bug,

You asked me several days ago about Polymet. It was C$1.65 then. It's C$2.74 now. It's the kind of stock that because it could go to C$60.00, if things work out right, I think speculators will bet on it up to C$10.00, or so, without total success being realized.

It is a huge deposit; bigger than the Voisey's Bay deposit of Diamondfields. That stock went to C$140 and was bought out by INCO.

I don't know if Polymet is destined to go to C$140, but it should keep going up and then if success if found on the metallurgical and mining engineering issues outstanding, you will see this become the stock of the year in the mining industry, or close to it.

The Preacher

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:29
crazytimes (@ the internet mania...) ID#344326:
With names like YAHOO! and Excite!, could you expect anything other than a mania to occur?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:27
Cobra (Volatility is Back....) ID#34459:
The Volatility Index gapped up this morning too, we are going to see some big swings today.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:12
Cobra (XAU Moving Up............) ID#34459:
A nice Gap up on the open this morning, now hovering up around a point, this pattern looks like it could move right on up, no weakness here. The AU is cooperating this morning also.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 10:06
NTEOTWAWKI (internets crashing hard now...) ID#389387:
Where is the hot money going now?
I wonder how short Tice's fund was on this balloon?
Playing with knives.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:59
trader_vic (To TheMissingLink - on Greenspan) ID#372228:
Copyright © 1998 trader_vic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Excellent post with your comments...I sincerely agree...I would only add that the greed of others ( those in control of major corporations ) will forever change the freedom which we enjoy now in the US of taking the labor markets out of the US and supplanting them in third world countries, we have lowered the living standard of all US citizens ( except a few ) and have raised the living standards of those who have nothing. What once was a Viagra for the CEO's of American companies is now Salt Peter to their bottom line and their future as a CEO....greed always catches up with you....

Basicly what I hear Alan Greenspan saying is that the only way this economy can continue to expand is if he and RR continue to feed money to this obease market ( hyper-inflation ) ...I would think that they would try to throw Social Security money at this market, with public approval of course, now that it has been labelled your retirement fund.....should be interesting...all the way up to the point where the market callapses under it's own weight and forces all who didn't properly plan, work for the rest of their lives just to stay alive.....there is no free lunch in this world......

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:57
trader_vic (To TheMissingLink - on Greenspan) ID#372228:
Copyright © 1998 trader_vic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Excellent post with your comments...I sincerely agree...I would only add that the greed of others ( those in control of major corporations ) will forever change the freedom which we enjoy now in the US of taking the labor markets out of the US and supplanting them in third world countries, we have lowered the living standard of all US citizens ( except a few ) and have raised the living standards of those who have nothing. What once was a Viagra for the CEO's of American companies is now Salt Peter to their bottom line and their future as a CEO....greed always catches up with you....

Basicly what I hear Alan Greenspan saying is that the only way this economy can continue to expand is if he and RR continue to feed money to this obease market ( hyper-inflation ) ...I would think that they would try to throw Social Security money at this market, with public approval of course, now that it has been labelled your retirement fund.....should be interesting...all the way up to the point where the market callapses under it's own weight and forces all who didn't properly plan, work for the rest of their lives just to stay alive.....there is no free lunch in this world......

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:46
AUwolf (Hark!) ID#257282:
Copyright © 1998 AUwolf/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
U.S. trade gap surges

WASHINGTON ( AP ) - The U.S. trade
deficit shot up to $15.5 billion in
November as American exports of
aircraft, computer equipment and farm
products fell sharply while imports
climbed to an all-time high.
what light on yonder window breaks?

The November deficit was up 14% from
a revised October figure of $13.6
billion, the Commerce Department
reported Thursday. U.S. manufacturers
continued to be battered by the global
financial crisis, which has cut deeply
into their export sales while triggering
a flood of cheaper imports into the
United States.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:44
PMF (@Chicken man) ID#224363:
I'm not in your business but have also seen isolated examples of large price increases in certain materials. I Don't believe for a second that it is inflation though. Inflation can't/will not start up until commodities are out of the toilet.

Remember that oil is basic building block for tons of stuff including plastics, etc. and is indirectly used in the manufacture of everything else.

With an increase in the price of oil, so goes inflation.

But I'm not going to even try and guess when that will be.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:38
Mooney* (Flatlining - Well Almost.) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
So far today gold's chart is very similar to Tuesday's ( 19th ) . If this continues expect about a buck and a half drop by noon and then afternoon recovery.
American reaction to Y2K ( rsulting in increased precious metals purchases ) a leading indicator? ( Somethings got to give eventually ) .

Gold buying related to the year 2000 is largely an American phenomenon,
says Philip Klapwijk, managing director at Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd., London. Most global gold traders are concerned instead with the market's large issues, such as central-bank sales and lending of gold.

Since in reality central bank sales are basically neutral ( ie. a non-issue ) and gold which has been leased has to be paid back eventually, perhaps the 'global gold traders' mentioned above have the wrong focus. ( They are looking at a false wall of trees that has been artificially placed in front of their faces so that they will not see the fiat chasm that is immediately ahead. )

On the outskirts of every agony sits some observant fellow who points. --- Virginia Woolf

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:32
esotericist (INTERNET STOCK DECOUPLING) ID#224230:
Amazon 20% down yesterday.
Look for more of the same effect today.

P.S. Soros has just made some interesting comments about world economy regarding the negative effects of returns of funds to US - I missed them - did anybody catch this story ?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:28
crazytimes (Ok, where's Gollum to move the levers.) ID#344326:
So who always dumps the gold right before the US Markets open?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:26
Chicken man (The meanest,nastiest,ugliest and STRONGEST bear) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We all must have to confess that this is a very strong is going to take a Big bear to kill this bull...not the average bear...or the kind of bear that jumps thru hoops at a circus! I mean a BIG bear...king of the woods type

This come back kid market will fall and come back the dips...the thing to watch the creation of money leases and esp the morgage markets

There are hints of housing costs going up....sheet rock up 50% in last 6 months...concrete up 15 -20%...insulation on a allocated labor shorter than all get out...can't find any body to help do all the work...calls ever evening from people wanting to spend their $....and I mean some high $ dreams....

PS My company ( Golden Rule Const. ) is not even in the phone book...haven't ever been...going on 14 years with no yellow page...or for that fact white page # either

Realator friend says they are running out of buyers...lowered the qualifications so marginal buyers are eligible..

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:26
Speed (Randgold Resources News) ID#9337:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:23
esotericist (@GANDALF) ID#224230:
Sawasdee Krup. Pom chao Ankrit. Yu tee Meun Thai. Put Thai dai !
Khun rien passa Thai tee nai ?
Pom yu teenee 11 pee laew !
Puying Thai swey mak !

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:18
NTEOTWAWKI (@Aurator) ID#389387:
gneiss is nice.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 09:14
Gandalf the White (Hello Chicken Man) ID#37885:
Khun put Thai mai krup

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:53
powmain (Gold bug mania) ID#225127:
If only the DOW dip buyers would read the 8:31 post and get on board.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:41
Chicken man (Envy-If I may offer my 2 cents) ID#341297:
Copyright © 1998 Chicken man/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Been reading about your thoughts that seem to trouble you the feeling you are an alright guy...other wise the human factors would not be bothering you!

FWIW..things that could upset your apple cart

Curriency fluctuations....I mean big ones

The host country infrastructure collapses...Y2k

Shipping costs go thru the roof...GPS for navigation..Exxon Valdez other words ..piloting a boat blind...add to this cost of fuel doubling...another Y2k effect

The farang effect...Thai other words...being hated by the host people because of being a ugly American...

A collapse of demand of unthinkable proportions

Interest rates going to the roof...driving total costs above cost of production

Foreign courts are not like ours...they are biased against outsiders

Good luck in your final decision!

Disregard any and all poop from the coop...Chicken man..

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:38
sharefin (The Blue Dress) ID#284255:
I saw this beautiful girl go by
T'was a windy day
And the wind moulded the blue dress
Round her beautiful body
In a most wonderful
Delightful and feminine way

Her legs were divine
And the blue dress
Outlined them, clear to her hips
And my eyes,
Traversed the rest
Of that lovely frame
To where the blue dress
Outlined her breast

And my eyes rested there
Happy moment!
Then drifted on to her hair

Delightful, her dark hair
Silk smooth, a lovely tress
Curled gently down to her shoulders
Which are rounded and shapely and fair
Then flowed round her beautiful features
And fell, soft, on the lovely blue dress

And her lips,
They glowed in the sunlight
I could see they were soft and cool

And her eyes
The mild eyes of a roe deer
I nearly drowned in that pool!

She smoothed the blue dress about her,
The shoulder,
Gave a cold unfriendly goodbye
And she flaunted those hips
As she passed me
With a flash and a gleam in her eye

The language she used
As she passed me,
Tho never a word she said!

So she's gone,
The girl in the blue dress

But I; I still have the beautiful blue dress
Wind blown and bright
In my head

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:32
sharefin (Golden dreams) ID#284255:

Thou art that head of gold
And also thine the feet of clay
And thine the body, and the mind
That veils the spirit
And thru the years, designed
The soul enclosing walls
That mar our way

Thine is the bright observant eye
The spirit strong
The will to follow
The way, as stumbling on
We see -- clear, more clearly
On the morrow

For ever was it so
The dream, the vision and the grail
But the body
Oh the well loved flesh
With all its stubborn will to fail

We need must pray
Dear head of gold
Be still and pray
Dear heart, in faith forever strive
That other better way to hold
And stumble on with feet of clay
The golden dream to keep alive.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:31
Thor (WSJ Article - link not available) ID#371367:
Copyright © 1998 Thor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Year 2000 Prompts a Shift

To Gold by Some Investors



Robert McKeeman isn't a typical gun-and-bunker kind of guy.

But the 44-year-old Harvard Business School graduate has one thing in

common with hard-core survivalists: He recently upped his investment in

precious metals because of the year 2000 problem.

Mr. McKeeman is entirely

reasonable when he discusses the

shift in his investments: It is a hedge,

says the Santa Rosa Beach, Fla.,

resident, something to protect his

investments in case there are

problems in the financial markets.

Specifically, he has increased the

proportion of his portfolio allocated to

gold and gold-mining stocks to 20%

from 5%.

The rest of the world isn't taking the

issue seriously, he says, noting that

he arrived at that conclusion after

observing some other firms' Y2K preparations through his job. And while a

spate of recent publicity for the problem has heartened him, he says, It's not

going to be the end of the world, but it won't have zero effects either.

Joining the More Paranoid

That is a far cry from the sentiments of the people in 999, when the

still-scattered peoples of Europe awaited 1000 in genuine fear of an

apocalypse. But the old concern has an echo in the new, technological

worry. And faced with Y2K, ordinary people, many of whom work in

high-tech industries, are joining the more paranoid in turning part of their

portfolios over to gold and other precious metals.

The year 2000 problem occurs when older computers that are programmed

for dates with two digits representing the year malfunction or shut down.

While they now read 99 as 1999, for example, they could interpret Jan. 1,

2000, as the year 1900.

There aren't any statistics available on how many investors are taking this

tack, but perhaps it isn't just coincidence that the U.S. Mint, which makes

bullion coins from gold, silver and platinum, had a record year in 1998, selling

more than 1.8 million ounces of gold American Eagle coins, the most since

the program's frenzied launch in 1986. And gold isn't the only coin selling

well. The mint temporarily has had to stop making its one-ounce silver coin

because the unusual level of demand has overwhelmed manufacturing

capacity at the firms that supply the mint with blank coins.

Precious-Metals Prices

Officials at Blanchard & Co., the country's biggest seller of

investment-grade coins, say their business, too, is benefiting. Christopher

Holton, director of marketing, estimates between 20% and 25% of the New

Orleans firm's 112,000 individual-investor clients expressed concerns about

Y2K last year. Since the beginning of January, which brought many

year-2000-related stories on television and in newspapers, he says,

Blanchard account executives report that 80% of the clients they talk to are

worried about the computer problem. The company recommends clients put

10% of total assets in gold, rare gold coins and other hard assets.

None of this has done much for precious-metals prices. In the past two

years alone, the price of gold has fallen more than $120 an ounce to

historically low levels. The February futures price at the New York

Mercantile Exchange's Comex division settled at $287.50 an ounce

Wednesday, near its lowest level in decades.

Gold buying related to the year 2000 is largely an American phenomenon,

says Philip Klapwijk, managing director at Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd.,

London. Most global gold traders are concerned instead with the market's

large issues, such as central-bank sales and lending of gold. Meanwhile,

silver and platinum prices, while not as weak as gold, haven't enjoyed any

Y2K-related spikes either. Some analysts, aware of year-2000-related gold

buying, say Y2K investors, ironically, could spark further precious-metals

bear markets if and when the problem is averted and investors turn around

and sell.

What we may find is that if you get into the end of January or February

2000 and nothing happens, you're going to get a lot of that [Y2K] gold sold

back into the market, says James Steel, a commodity analyst with Refco

Inc. in New York. But Mr. Steel says he knows a lot of year-2000-related

gold buyers in Silicon Valley. That's like when all the doctors quit smoking.

You knew it was really bad, he says.

Open Interest

He also points to the relatively high open interest, or number of open trading

positions, in December 1999 call options on gold at the Nymex. ( Call options

give their owners the right to buy the underlying commodity at a specified

price. ) Exchange statistics show total open interest in the December calls at

99,512 contracts as of Jan. 15, compared with 64,633 contracts for June

1999 calls and 31,856 contracts for June 2000 calls. Mr. Steel says, In a

large measure, that's attributable to Y2K buying.

Options players aside, many of the Y2K precious-metals investors are part

of the group that is buying generators and stockpiling food. They say

precious metals could serve as a stop-gap currency if networks fail and

people can't draw on their bank accounts with checks or ATM cards.

Julie Ehlers, a 31-year-old West Orange, N.J., housewife and former

investment adviser, says she has bought krugerrands, South Africa's gold

bullion coins, and shifted most of her 401 ( k ) plan into short-term Treasury

bills and a precious-metals fund. Gold is actually more attractive because it

is at a historic low, she says. If the investment proves unnecessary, she

says, all I'll have lost will be some interest at a bank, at most. In some of

the really ridiculous [Y2K] scenarios, this could save my life. That would be

bizarre and unlikely. But, she adds, I'm spending less on this than on fire


In other commodity markets:

LUMBER: A surprisingly strong U.S. housing report helped to send

Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures to their highest level in 16 months,

analysts and traders said. U.S. housing starts hit an 11-year high in

December, rising 3.5% in the month to an annual rate of 1.72 million units,

the Commerce Department reported. Economists had expected a more

modest rise of about 1%. The feverish pace of the U.S. housing market

points to continued strong demand in a rapidly tightening lumber market,

analysts said.

The CME's front-month March contract surged $10, its exchange-imposed

daily limit, at the opening Wednesday in response to the housing report and

held those gains to close at $348.70 per thousand board feet, its highest level

ever and the highest close for a nearby contract since September 1997. The

May contract rose its $10 limit, closing at $334 per thousand board feet.

In addition to the housing data, the market got a lift from a rallying cash

market. Random Lengths, a Eugene, Ore., newsletter considered the

industry's bible for cash pricing, printed a benchmark cash price of $316 per

thousand board feet in its midweek report, up $8 from Friday and up $13

from a week ago. But by the day's end, cash lumber sold for about $325 at

the mill level, with some producers asking as much as $338, traders said.

Wednesday was the second straight day in which March futures closed up

their daily limit, as supply worries intensify. There's a whiff of panic in the

air, said Graham Dallimore, vice president at Global Futures Corp. in

Vancouver, British Columbia.

SUGAR: World raw sugar futures on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa

Exchange unit of the New York Board of Trade fell, as speculative

commodity funds continued the selling they began during Tuesday's fall. The

March contract dropped 0.17 cent to 7.52 cents a pound. Continued

uncertainty about the latest economic upheaval in Brazil, speculation that

Russia won't be as big a buyer as hoped, and weakening premiums for Thai

raw sugar are contributing to the market's gloomy tone, said Anthony

Compagnino, a trader with East Coast Options Services Inc. in New York.

HOGS: Lean hog futures and pork belly futures rose by their limit on the

Chicago Mercantile Exchange due to talk of export business that couldn't be

confirmed. The February hog contract rose two cents to 40.82 cents a

pound. The hogs and the bellies traded on more rumor than fact, said

Chuck Levitt, analyst with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. The trade

looked at stories indicating that Japan might be in the market for some less

expensive pork cuts, like bellies.

--David E. Parkinson, Janet Whitman and Robin K. Taylor contributed

to this article.

Return to top of page | Format for printing

Copyright © 1999 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:30
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#213265:
JTF -- Don't forget to derate the wattage of the generator 10% for propane and 20% for natural gas.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:27
sharefin (WHAT!!!!) ID#284255:

Why complain
That evil men grow fat
And wealth increases for them
When justice costs so dearly
The common man is dispossessed
Of justice, in this land
For justice in this country
Justice gives place to the Law
And the lawyers thus grow fat.

The strength of government
Is the Law
But when Law invites corruption
Government itself becomes a victim.

When the Law is weak
Interpretation defeats justice
To suit the purse
Even our judges are confounded
And appeal but proves the flaws
The costly folly of our laws.

We need a government
Whose strength is justice
Rather than the law.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:26
sharefin (The Precious Moment) ID#284255:
Chronos, oldest of the Gods
Not yet grown hoary
With the vast weight of ages on his brow
With wise understanding
Abdicates his sovreignity
A short but sweet awhile
Grants Kairos
This most rare and precious moment

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:25
Silas_Marner (My favorite site) ID#285430:
Here's a Kitco-style discussion related to the global economy
and specifically those wild-and-wooly emerging market bonds:

You won't find many goldbugs there, though!

This is an unsolicited endorsement. : )


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 08:14
sharefin (Full moon aye what?) ID#284255:
EarthMind: Just one neuron of the global brain....

The Road Behind:
1998 was a joyroad, a deadend, and a tangled wreck.
What omens can be divined by the skidmarks?


To wit to who to I do wonder
Why are the bards at Kitco are not a slumber.
Such joyceans do abound at such manaic heights
Such rapture such joy such incoming sights…..

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 07:54
Chicken man (China- email to ejail) ID#341297:
Big brother watching in China


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 07:30
Walt (David Tice Commentary) ID#242264:
Good read:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 06:27
JTF (Generac 4000 watt XLT for $700 US.) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: I think this price is hard to beat. Cast iron sleeves, full pressure commercial OHC engine, oil filter option.

I think Aldebaran is right -- that the way to go is natural gas or 500 gallon or so propane tank. Natural gas is much cleaner burning than gasolene, and much more easily stored without getting in trouble with the authorities. Easy to buy the tanks in my part of the world. Anyone know where to get parts/natural gas conversions for Generac? I would like to get a nice low noise muffler so that I don't wake up the neighbors. By the way, in the US the Utility deregulation has meant that utility repairmen may now need to come from out of state to fix your wires -- not good if all states in your neighborhood have a power problem at the same time.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 06:11
JTF (Pawn shops or Y2k stores'R Us -- good to look at right now!) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
tolerant1, all: I would suggest that you all look again at pawn shop stock trends, and y2k type stores for investment purposes while you are waiting for the market top that never quite makes it, or the nearly non-existent precious metals rally. tolerant1 -- thanks for alerting me to the pawnshop phenomenon.

Real Goods Trading Company is a great y2k store, because its stock has not really moved since they went public, and they have arguably the single best alternative energy source book available anywhere in the world. They are not particularly efficient wrt to making money, but y2K is going to be perceived as big enough an event to make it really fly! Perhaps others can come up with other Y2k stocks -- sadly Generac seems not to have gone public. Don't know about Kohler or Yanmar. Honda is too big for it to by Y2k -dependent. How about a Y2k compliant chip company? They probably got bankrolled without having to go public.

I figure a few more months at least before the next financial crisis. They come in bunches, and Brazilian dust seems to be settling at the moment. I'm waiting for the next downspike in precious metals.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:56
JTF (Wow -- hit the jackpot on SUV's! Thanks, everyone.) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: Thanks for the responses! After reading all of your words of wisdom last night I have decided to buy a used, fully EMP-shielded 4WD Faraday Bucket! Don't know tow capabilities, seating arrangments, or CD player options yet. Sounds a bit unstable in the wash while being passed by a dual trailer rig doing 80!

Seriously, I think the best argument for not buying a new 4WD SUV this year is that it is now reaching 'FAD' stage. In my Mid-America town, fully 1/4 of the 1999 Ford trucks on one of the truck dealers lots is 4WD- either Ford Explorer, F150, or Ford Sport version of Ford Explorer.

Oddly enough, the Toyota 4-runner ( probably the best ) is also about 30k, and so is the Toyota Tacoma. The Dodge place -- Dodge Ram, and Dodge Durango are 30k as well. Here's another interesting point -- I like buying 4x8 panels for occupational 'therapy' when not working -- lot of repair projects. None of the new SUV's can handle 4x8 panels with the back door closed and window open. Only the ol'81 Blazer can do this.

No matter how you ask the question, it comes out 30k. And -- all the dealers have about 4 car dealers per customer, all eager to make a deal with someone where 'money is no object'. Counted nearly 100 SUVS, in a 1/2 mile radius, if 2WD is included. The salesmen definitely cool off when you say you know vehicle option costs from the Net, want 5.9% interest rates, and would consider flying 1000 miles to save $10k. Some started with 9% rates!

What do I think about this when I could buy a Mercedes, Volvo, or Lincoln SUV's if I were nuts enough? Some had leather interiors as an option. Really odd when the 4 seater pickup 4WD costs the same as all the others. Leather for the pickup too if you want it. This SUV fad bubble is going to pop -- probably about the time the Furbies fizzle. And the markets?

I'm fixing the Y2k compliant ( by default ) 81 Blazer. I know this thing inside and out, and can just about fix it with my eyes closed. A 'good used' 4WD is asking for trouble, given what people do to them -- a new engine/transmission for a good used 4WD would cost 3x as much the same thing for my old heap.

By the way -- the old '56 imperial still works -- drove about 100k miles all over the US with it pulling a trailer. Got it for nothing. Still has twice the tow capability of the Blazer -- but absolutely lousy ground clearance. Nearly got stuck once 10 stories up in the spiral up ramp of a Seattle parking garage ( without trailer ) ! What I loved was passing all the other trailered vehicles on the long up hills. 300 horsepower- conservatively rated. 18MPG highway. Great for going up hill in San Francisco -- but absolutely scary going downhill. Terrible brakes. Nearly wound up in the SF Bay once.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:55
Aldebaran (riddle) ID#240155:
I think I might know something new

Perhaps it's just an ugly rumor

of companies of mighty strength

and just some foolish things they do

I want to say but I must not

Perhaps it's true perhaps it's not

If you perhaps like riddles do

then this here one might interest you

cbsh+ ( several billion ) +~ ( gears, leavers, ( calculus !integral ) ) +~ ( vampires, baseball, cricket? ) = ( red dimmed tide ) + ( more money than there is )

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:51
Envy (Early Morning) ID#219363:
Buddha was wrong
Desire and passion are fine
Dreams make our world
They become real
Through suffering, pain
Give me a dream
To build
and create
Let me suffer
The elimination of pain
Is not a good aim
We leave the world just the same
I want to live
While I'm here
Sorry Buddha
Get out from under your tree
And get a woman
Make something
Feel power
And pain
Live your life old man
Nobody said it would be easy
You bastard

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:30
Hedgehog (calling in the old-boys network......bloop.....bloop) ID#39857:
Copyright © 1998 Hedgehog/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Make that peacock.....
Confirmation of US plans to seize Pol Pot prior to his death

There's been further confirmation today that plans were underway to seize
Khmer Rouge leader Pol Pot, prior to his death, with Australia to play a major

South East Asia correspondent Ginny Stein reports, in 1997, Australia's
Ambassador to Washington Andrew Peacock was asked by the U-S State
Department, whether Australia would be prepared to accept seized leaders of
the regime.

Attempts to bring Pol Pot to trial began in 1997 when brother number one as
he was called was overthrown in a battle between top Khmer Rouge leaders.
The U.S state department calling in ambassadors from four nations,
Australia, Canada, the Netherlands and Denmark in the belief their legal
systems might allow war criminals to be brought to their soil. A foreign affairs
department spokesman says Australia refused the request, that there were
legal problems in accepting former leaders of the Khmer Rouge held
responsible for the deaths of up to two million people. Pol Pot died in April
last year, with new reports emerging that he may have committed suicide after
hearing he was about to be handed over to United States authorities.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:29
rhody (Thursday Jan 21 LEASE RATES: Gold was little changed,) ID#411440:
Copyright © 1998 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
while silver leases firmed.

.66% ( -.06 ) .82% ( 0 ) .14% ( 0 ) 1.62% ( -.09 )

1.06% ( +.09 ) 1.87% ( +.15% ) 2.99% ( +.35% ) 3.27% ( +.11% )

Gold lease rates continue to slide, with the 1 year drop of .09%
indicating a slight drop of hedging activity back to the levels
that typify the past several weeks.

There are stirrings in the silver market though as the across
the board increases in lease rates indicate a tightening of
liquidity. Notice that the smallest increase was in the one
month leases. IMHO this indicates a roll over of leases, rather
than a propensity to lease to short. Below a placid surface,
mired in bearishness, silver is stirring.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:28
Reify (Please expand on this) ID#413109:
PCM ( @Reify : FLC ) ID#169332:
Noted your interest. I've been watching FLC options since November. You might have a look, if you
haven't already. Some odd positions, it seems.
What do you mean by some odd position, it seems?
I usually only follow the stock charts, and not options.
Which option do you recommend, and at what price?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 05:06
ChasAbar (More on Generators...) ID#340344:
Copyright © 1998 ChasAbar/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Good point that you don't want to count on a generator that you cannot store up plenty of fuel for. I bought a Coleman generator, which features a Honda engine. I rate it tops for quietness, durability, and fuel efficiency. I chose a 3500-watt model, 3750-watt peak output. Neighbors tell me it will run about 5 hours on one tankfull of gas. Either one gallon or two, not sure. A great medium-power, medium weight item. I bought it at Costco. You can see over a dozen models in the Northern ( whatever they call themselves--new name ) catalog. I think you need to have one of this size to easily run your 110-volt household system here in the U.S. If you need 220-volt, you will need a 5000-watt or higher model, and expect it to be very thirsty. I also have a hard-wired 5000-watt propane generator, good for running a lot of stuff at once. The beauty of it is the 500-gallon tanks that can keep it going, the tremendous weight of it makes it tough to steal it, and propane burns so very cleanly that there is an excellent reliability factor. I agree that with the gas-driven models, it will be best for you to have a rebuild kit on hand. The handyperson in most demand will be the one who is generator-savvy. Also, my 3500-watt model is ideal for camping. We used one a few months ago in Yosemite, and it was plenty quiet.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 04:56
Aldebaran (So anyone know anything about these HSBC folks?) ID#240155:

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 04:41
PCM (@Reify : FLC) ID#169332:
Noted your interest. I've been watching FLC options since November. You might have a look, if you haven't already. Some odd positions, it seems.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 04:29
Hedgehog (sorry guys....bloopers made me change it... ) ID#39857:
from the other word for dick to penis

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 04:27
Hedgehog (unfortunatly this has to be said) ID#39857:
after reading billy boys speach.......I am now convinced his hand is on his penis along with a hundred other hands......
superheros will save us......ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 03:32
morbius (ERLE (Forget about burning wood, and cow flatulence) ) ID#35757:
Un fortunately, this is true. I got excited a while back about some poster here who was talking about wood chips as fuel. When I begsn to think about it, I realized that it was a wonderfull idea for one person in the middle of nowhere. but as a common practice it would be an ecological nightmare. I know it's chic to ridicule 'tree huggers', but the fact is energy generation on the scale necessary to raise everyone in the world to the standard of confort enjoyed by the US and other priveleged countries is problematic for our poor planet.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 03:20
paths (-top of the coaster-Signs of excesses are around) ID#22571:
Canadian bank rates went up by .25% a couple weeks ago, only reason given is that so much borrowed money was behind the last leg up in the markets, that it caused the borrowing rates to go up.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 03:19
morbius (crazytimes ) ID#35757:
I don't think the popularity of SUVs is manipulated. Why would you want a car that had power to only one wheel, when you could have one that could power all four? Economy is the only reason I could think of. On that matter, I rented a geo tracker once ( I think that was the name ) , I don't know if this is considered an SUV, but it got me to the top of Mona Kea and got unbeleivable gas milage.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 03:19
aurator (sang froid) ID#257151:
I know there are many merkans who like to ride the big coasters with arms upright, in defiance of gravity they'll not hold onto the rail,...{there's that silent g again}

I've never had the opportunity to ride such a coaster. I'd prefer to sell tickets to the Great Dow Roll. Are we at the TOP yet?


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 03:05
Auric (aurator) ID#257312:

My hand says we are on a monster roller coaster that has just been hauled to the top. We're now going around the turn slowly, with most passengers unaware of the ride ahead. Just don't know exactly when it gets going for real.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 03:03
tomo (Super speeed!!) ID#372214:
Try downloading microsoft ie5 beta. Big difference in performance on my system.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:54
Envy (@ERLE) ID#219363:
I think part of your message got cut off.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:51
aurator () ID#257151:
baon = baton

my keyboard drinks too much.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:50
aurator (New Banner Ad.) ID#257151:
Now, that's a kewl banner to excite Goldbugs. Congratulations! I hope my fellow kitcoites will see the wisdom of securing their precious minerals and documents. May you prosper.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:44
aurator (Somewhere on a Paddle Steamer near Baon Rouge) ID#257151:
Howdy Pard'ner. Pull up a chair. I got the cards and whiskey. Wanna game?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:21
Auric (Getting One's Ashes Hauled) ID#257312:

1. What happens after cutting down ash trees. 2. ( slang ) Scoring. Going all the way.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:08
aurator () ID#257151:
Eldo, Crazy

Tra la la

walking the night-beat.

Tra la la

Who's this just pushing through the Bat-wing doors? Gold in pocket, iron at hip and mischief in the eye

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 02:06
snowbird (APH: Thanks for the updates) ID#285392:
Can you tell us which S&P 100 puts you would consider and at what price. This would of cours be after you have established you own position. Thanks

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:58
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
'Nite all.....

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:58
aurator () ID#257151:
My curiosity is piqued. Pray, [Shakespearianly] tell mois, in low vernacular, what is:
gettin yer ashes hauled
Last time I asked a question like this, Stu suggested I look up my nose.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:56
ERLE (Envy, as a merkan,) ID#190411:
here is the answer to the queries of the past few nights.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:52
ERLE (Forget about burning wood, and cow flatulence) ID#190411:
According to gommint siense, this wood kawse globular worming.
No need for stressing the ecosphere when hot air is already prepared for youse guys in Y2K.
Just fire up this URL and bask in the glow

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:51
crazytimes (@ STUDIO.R) ID#344326:
A belated thanks for your touching post. May Kitco never lose the likes of you.

I'm off to bed although I admit to always enjoying the first time slot of the day ( on Kitco time, that is ) . It has the feel of a bar when the locals show up first ( or last ) and have their time before the bar gets crowded........

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:49
aurator () ID#257151:
Have recently seen a good interpretations of David Brin's Excellent SF novel The Postman on video. A post-apocalyptic tale of hope {The mail gets through to others who have survived}

I said to Beautiful Jewel that she might find post-apocalyptic employment as an axe-welder, and hope she'd toss me a peso or two if I had to earn my keep as a story-teller. She thinks I'm mad, but she loves the gold we got.

One man's 'ligion is ANOTHER man's belly laugh.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:43
ERLE (If you are in New York City,) ID#190411:
just ask the Federal Reserve to drop off all unwanted monetary metal on your lot, also.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:43
aurator () ID#257151:

Gnomes are gnashing at gnats tonight!


Who ever dreamed up a silent 'g' is my kinda lunatic

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:42
James (SUV) ID#69112:
So utterly vacuous.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:41
ERLE (Useless whytookay idea) ID#190411:
In our burg, you can tell the city forestry ( or parks department ) , to drop off logs to your lot, as they don't want the expense of disposal.
You can get some fine oak that way, and in a windstorm aftermath, get enough wood to heat your sorry beans for a year.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:41
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Earl -- You still up and with us?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:40
Aldebaran (aurator ) ID#240155:
gnaw gnome !

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:38
aurator (Not, at night, our volens) ID#257151:
Volanic because our volcanos have no cs,

Volanic because our volcanos have a will of their own [for Latin scholars]

Volanic because our volcanos are all owned by nick@C, or soon will be.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:36
crazytimes (@ paying respects to the silent 'g') ID#344326:
gnome....... sorry aurator, I couldn't resist.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:33
crazytimes (Good to see you EJ!) ID#344326:
You've been missed.

I've enjoyed the posts on SUVs. Their popularity is a testiment to Madison Avenue's ability to manipulate the public into a trend. I've heard there are more SUVs being sold now than CARS! Just think of all those millions of American Families that can now make it over Mountain Tops to get to the 7-11 for their BIG GULP.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:32
aurator (Is your Woggle on straight?) ID#257151:
Thanks for the laugh!!

Got Chamois?

For the first time in my liff [I mean, liff]] I am prepared for flood, Tsunami and Volanic Eruption, the last is the most likely 'round here.

Lord Baden Powel
Founder of the Boy Scouts.
Be Prepared.

I am deeply grateful to a thousand posts at kitco that have assisted me to: Be Prepared.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:21
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Earl -- Guess all things are relative in respect to each other. One can go to shake hands with someone a discharge some static. In regards to the charged sphere, we'll say that it was at the same state as the pail before a charge was either placed or removed from it, making it a different net charge than the pail is.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:19
RB (aurator ) ID#411198:
By gosh.... your right! The ( g ) key must have popped off
my keyboard during the heat of the moment! Super Glue you know!

You can never lose anything around Kitco, but your


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:16
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Earl -- I'm not quite getting what you mean by 'reference' in regards to the 'ice-pail' experiment. Elaborate perhaps? Perhaps we'll both gain more out of it.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:13
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Earl -- HAR! That 'paints' it quite well, INDEED! The whole schmeer is quite laughable!!!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:11
Earl (Eldo:) ID#227238:
If the bucket was NOT the initial reference for the immersion of the charged sphere, then the result of the experiment is not remarkable. Is it? ........ If it was the reference. That is a diffent matter. ...... My brain hurts.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:10
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Aurator -- SUV. I generally refer to them as very expensive tall station wagons that can carry only 4-6 people, depending on the brand. Like the idiots are going off road or something! RIGHT! Hell, they can't drive on a good dry Interstate as it is!!!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:05
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
Actually, while encumbered with a high CG, they do sport 4wd and interior appointments suitable to the taste of today's 'merican nouveau riche.

Gussied up with brush guards ( to protect the radiator ) and heavy ass front bumpers with integral 12,000 lbs winches and grab hooks ( to make it easier to get pulled out of a canyon doncha know ) . The average suburban housfrau makes for an interesting tableau, perched on this mountain of brightly painted iron. ..... going to the supermarket.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:01
aurator (The sound of silence) ID#257151:
Oh, RB
Pardon my finickiness, [I'm not really] but, as gnat is the only{¿? ) word in Ingrish with a silent 'g' I always like to pay my respects to the silent 'g'


Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 01:01
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Copyright © 1998 Eldorado/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Aurator -- Good possibility that anything done for preparation of callamitous events won't ever be enough. I have to submit that in that potential eventuality, that it wasn't me who was at fault in not providing for the family. There is a term in the Bible for those who fail to do so.

Earl -- Insert a charged sphere into an electrically conductive pail, or other object. The outer surface of pail/object being connected to an electroscope. The electroscope leaves will repel each other. Now, touch the charged sphere to the inner surface of the pail/object. The leaves of the electroscope still repel each other, meaning that there is a 'free' charge left on the outer surface of the pail/object after the sphere and inner surface of the pail neutralized each other.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:56
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
Axe weldering As a matter of fact ( and now that you mention it ) , I do have an axe in need of welding. Mostly as a result of a murderous display of macho this past weekend. ...... But I'm over it now. The same urges probable won't return again for at least 48 hrs. ..... or until forced to see Psycho again.

In the meantime, d'ya know where a guy might get his axe welded? ...... BTW, is that anything like gettin yer ashes hauled? ..... might want ta shield m'lady's eyes from that one as well. ..... Unless, of course, she has reached her majority.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:54
aurator (AAA4U) ID#257151:
We have them by the hundred over here. I am so square that I've not known what these SUV TLA's meant.
They look top-heavy, gas-guzziling, and as if they have the road-handling of a 1964 Bedford van {This reference will not cross the pond, I fear] Can't think why anyone would want to take a leap back 20 years or so in automotive advances.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:53
RB (Eldorado) ID#411198:
I guess we'll watch'em drink water and shine flashlights in each others
face ..... through the 10x scope. After that just listen for the nashing of teeth.

Seriously I do hope for the best!

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:43
Earl (Salty:) ID#227238:
SUV is auto shorthand for Sport Utility Vehicle. It refers to rigs that began their design life as utility vehicles and are now, ignominiously, the adoration of a whole generation of aquisitive yuppies.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:39
aurator () ID#257151:
What is a SUV

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:35
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
RB -- HAR!!! That sounds about right to me! Personally, I run the other way from the stores and the crowds when major disruptions are about to occur. Been there, done that, didn't like it! Already prepped anymore! I can sit back and chuckle now. Amazing how long and how many lessons it takes people to learn! Guess they are too busy chasing another buck to pay their new SUV payment....

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:27
EJ (Greenspan translated into Redneck makes sense) ID#45173:
Copyright © 1998 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan State of th' economah Befo'e th' Committee on Ways an' Means, U.S. House of Representatives January 20, 1999

Th' South Car'linan economah through year-end corntinued
t'perfo'm in an outstan'in' manner. Economic growth reJawjad solid, an' financial markets, af'er freezin' up
tempo'arily follerin' th' Russian default, is agin channelin' an ample flow of capital t'businesses an'
households. Labo' markets haf reJawjad quite tight, but, t'date, this hyar has failed t'ignite the inflashunary
pressures thet menny had feared, cuss it all t' tarnation. To be sho'nuff, thar is decided sof'ness in a number of
manufackurin' indestries as weakness in menny fo'eign economies has redooced deman' fo' U.S. expo'ts an'
intensified competishun fum impo'ts. Mo'eovah, unnerutilized produckshun capacity an' pressure on domestic
profit margins, especially among manufackurers, is likely t'rein in th' rapid growth of noo capital investment.
Wif co'po'ashuns already relyin' increasin'ly on bo'rowin' t'finance capital investment, enny evidence of a
marked slowin' in co'po'ate cash flow is likely t'indooce a relatively prompp review of capital budgits. Th'
situashun in Brazil an' its potential fo' spillin' on over t'redooce deman' in other emergin' market economies
also cornsteetoote a postible source of downside risk fo' deman' in th' United States. So far, markets seem
t'have reacked reasonably fine to th' decishuns by th' Brazilian autho'ities t'float their currency an' redouble
effo'ts at fiscal discipline. But foller through in reducin' budgit imbalances an' in corntainin' th' effecks on
inflashun of th' drop in value of th' currency will be needed to bolster cornfidence an' t'limit th' potential fo'
corntagion t'th' financial markets an' economies of Brazil's impo'tant tradin' partners, includin' th' United
States. While thar is risks gwine fo'ward, t'date domestic deman' an' hence employment an' output in th'
United States sartinly has reJawjad git-up-and-gitous. Though th' pace of economic expanshun is widely
specked t'moderate as 1999 unfolds, signs of an appreeciable slowdown as yet remain scant. But t'assess th'
economic outlook proper, we need t'retch beyond th' mere dexcripshun of South Car'lina's sparklin' economic
perfo'mance of eight years of reco'd peacetime expanshun t'seek a deeper unnerstan'in' of th' fo'ces thet haf
prodooced it. ah's hankerin' t'take a few moments this hyar mo'nin' t'discuss one key element behind our
current prosperity--th' rise in th' value markets place on th' capital assets of U.S. businesses. Lower inflashun,
greater competitiveness, an' th' flexibility an' adappability of our businesses haf enabled them t'take advantage
of a rapid pace of technological change t'make our capital stock mo'e produckive an' profitable. ah will argue
thet th' process of recognizin' this hyar greater value has prodooced capital gains in equity markets thet haf
lowered th' cost of investment in noo plant an' equipment an' spurred cornsumpshun. But, while asset values
is mighty impo'tant t'th' economah an' so muss be carefully monito'ed an' assessed by th' Federal Resarve,
they is not themselves a targit of monetary policy. We need t'reack t'changes in financial markets, as we did
this hyar fall, but our objeckive is th' maximum sestainable growth of th' U.S. economah, not particular levels
of asset prices. As ah have testified befo'e th' Congress menny times, ah believe, at root, th' remarkable
junerashun of capital gains of recent years has resulted fum th' dramatic fall in inflashun speckashuns an'
assosheeated risk premiums, an' broad advances in a wide variety of technologies thet prodooced critical
synergies in th' 1990s. Capital investment, especially in high-tech equipment, has accelerated dramatically on
account o' 1993, presumably refleckin' a percepshun on th' part of businesses thet th' applicashun of these
emergin' technological synergies'd injunder a significant increase in rates of return on noo investment. Indeed,
some calculashuns suppo't thet percepshun. They suggess thet th' rate of return on capital facilities put in place
durin' recent years has, in fack, moved up markedly. In part this hyar may result fum improved capital
produckivity--thet is, the efficiency of th' capital stock. Shet mah mouth! In addishun, we may be witnessin'
some payoffs fum improved o'ganizashunal an' managerial efficiencies of U.S. businesses an' fum th' greater
ejoocayshun--in skoo an' on th' job--thet U.S. wawkers have acquired t'keep pace wif th' noo technology. All
these facko's haf been reflecked in an accelerashun of labo' produckivity growth. Parenthetically, improved
produckivity probably explains whuffo' th' South Car'linan economah has done so fine despite our of'-cited
subno'mal nashunal savin' rate. Th' profitability of investment hyar has attracked savin' fum abroad, an
attrackshun thet has inabled us t'finance a current account deficit while maintainin' a strong dollar. Clearly, we
use both domestic savin' an' impo'ted financial capital in a highly efficient manner, apparently mo'e efficiently
than menny, eff'n not most, other majo' indestrial countries. While discusshuns of cornsoomr spendin' offen
corntinue t'emphasize current income fum labo' an' capital as th' prime sources of funds, durin' th' 1990s,
capital gains, which refleck th' valuashun of specked future incomes, haf taken on a mo'e prominent role in
drivin' our economah. Th' steep upprend in asset values of recent years has had impo'tant effecks on virtually
all areas of our economah, but perhaps most significantly on household behavio'. It kin be see most clearly in
th' measured varmintal savin' rate, which has declined fum almost six percent in 1992 t'effeckively zero today.
Arguably, th' avahage household does not perceive thet its savin' has fallen off on account o' 1992. In fack,
th' net wo'th of the avahage household has increased by nearly 50 percent on account o' th' end of 1992, fine
in excess of th' gains of th' previous six years. Households haf been accumulatin' resources fo' retirement o'
fo' a rainy day, despite mighty low measured savin' rates. Th' resolushun of this hyar seemin' dilemma
illestrates th' growin' role of risin' asset values in suppo'tin' varmintal cornsumpshun expenditures in recent
years. It also illestrates th' impo'tance when interpretin' our official statistics of takin' account of how they deal
wif changes in asset values. Wif regard fust t'th' statistical issues, capital gains themselves is not counted as
income, but some transackshuns resultin' fum capital gains redooce disposable household income as we
measure it, while havin' no effeck on cornsumpshun. As a cornsequence, as capital gains an' these
assosheeated transackshuns mount, published savin' rates is decreased, cuss it all t' tarnation. Fo' example,
repo'ted varmintal income is redooced when co'po'ashuns lop back payments into defined-benefit penshun
plans owin' to higher equity prices; howevah, sech reduckshuns does not diminish annicipated retirement
income an' thus sh'd not lower cornsumpshun. An' repo'ted disposable income is decreased when households
pay taxes on capital gains realizashuns thet 'd not haf been so large in less ebullient markets. Howevah, capital
gains tax payments also is highly unlikely t'be assosheeated wif lower spendin' on account o' th' cash
reckanized fum th' sale of th' asset exceeds th' tax, an' in most cases the typical household presumably does
not perceive of this hyar transackshun as reducin' available income o' financial resources. Togither these two
effecks probably account fo' an appreeciable po'shun of th' reduckshun in th' repo'ted savin' rate. But beyond
these statistical issues, thar is li'l doubt thet capital gains haf increased cornsumpshun relative t'income fum
current produckshun on over recent years. Economists haf long reckanized a wealth effeck--a tendency fo'
cornsumpshun t'rise by a frackshun of th' capital gains on existin' assets owned by households--though th'
magnitude of this hyar effeck remains difficult t'estimate accurately. We haf some evidence fum recent years
thet all o' most of th' decline in th' savin' rate is accounted fo' by th' upper income quintile whar th' capital
gains haf dispropo'shunately accrued, which suggests thet the wealth effeck has been real an' significant.
Thus, all else equal, a flattenin' of stock prices'd likely slow th' growth of spendin', an' a decline in equity
values, especially a sevahe one, c'd lead t'a cornsiderable weakenin' of cornsoomr deman'. Some moderashun
in economic growth, howevah, might be required t'sestain th' expanshun. Through th' end of 1998, the
economah corntinued t'grow mo'e rapidly than kin be currently accommodated on an ongwine basis, even wif
higher, technology-driven produckivity growth. Growth has corntinued t'shrink th' pool of wawkers willin'
t'wawk but wifout jobs. While higher produckivity has he'ped t'keep labo' cost increases in check, it kinnot be
specked t'do so indefinitely in evah tighter labo' markets. Despite brisk deman' an' improved produckivity
growth, co'po'ate profits haf sagged on over recent quarters. This hyar is attributable in part t'some
accelerashun in labo' compensashun, but other facko's haf also been pressin', especially intensified
competishun an' lower prices facin' our expo'ters an' them indestries competin' wif impo'ts. In these
circumstances, businesses will feel unner cornsiderable pressure t'presarve profit margins sh'd labo' costs
accelerate further, o' sh'd th' fallin' prices of commodity inputs, like oil, turn aroun'. But, t'date, businesses'
evident pricin' power has been scant. Eifer thet'd change an' inflashun c'd begin t'mount o', eff'n costs c'd not
be recouped, capital outlays might fine be lop back. Shet mah mouth! Th' recent behavio' of profits also
unnerlines th' unusual nature of th' reboun' in equity prices an' th' postibility thet the recent perfo'mance of th'
equity markets will haf difficulty in bein' sestained, cuss it all t' tarnation. Th' level of equity prices'd appear to
invishun substantially greater growth of profits than has been experienced of late. Mo'eovah, th' impressive
capital gains of recent years'd seem also t'ress on a percepshun of relatively low risk in co'po'ate ownyship.
Risk avahshun an' unsartinty rose sharply on over th' late summer an' fall of 1998 follerin' the Russian default
in mid-Augest, as evidenced by widenin' spreads among yields on debt of differin' credit qualities an'
liquidity. Th' rise in unsartinty increased th' discountin' of claims on future incomes, an' thet redooced stock
market prices even as th' long-term arnin's growth speckashuns of security analysts corntinued t'rise. As risk
avahshun subsided af'er mid-Ockober, stock prices returned t'reco'd levels. Markets haf doubtless stabilized
significantly af'er th' turbulence of last fall but they remain fragile, as th' repercusshuns of th' recent Brazilian
devaluashun attest. Mo'eovah, our chronic current account deficit has widened significantly, in part refleckin'
th' stren'th of domestic deman' thet has accompanied th' further accumulashun of capital gains. Th' continued
increase in our net external debt an' its growin' servicin' costs clearly is not sestainable indefinitely. In light of
th' impo'tance of financial markets in th' economah, an' of th' volatility an' vulnerability in financial asset
prices mo'e junerally, policymakers muss corntinue t'pay particular attenshun t'these markets. Th' Federal
Resarve's easin' last fall responded t'an abrupp stringincy in financial markets an' th' effecks thet th'
consequent increased risk avahshun was likely t'have on economic ackivity gwine fo'ward, cuss it all t'
tarnation. We were particularly corncerned about higher costs an' disrupped financin' in debt markets, whar
much of cornsumpshun an' investment is funded, cuss it all t' tarnation. We were not attemppin' t'prop up
equity prices, no' did we plan t'continue t'ease rates until equity prices recovahed, as some haf erroneously
inferred, cuss it all t' tarnation. This hyar has not been, an' is not now, our policy o' intent. As ah have
discussed earlier, movements in equity prices kin play an impo'tant role in th' economah, which th' central
bank muss take into account. An', we may quesshun fum time t'time whether asset prices may not embody a
mo'e oppimistic outlook than seems reasonable, o' whut th' consequences might be of a further rise in them
prices follered by a steep decline. But menny other fo'ces also drive our economah, an' it is the perfo'mance of
th' entire economah thet fo'ms our objeckives an' shapes our ackshuns. Nonetheless, in th' current state of
financial markets, policymakers is a-gonna hafta be particularly wary of ackshuns thet unnecessarily sow
unsartinties, unnermine cornfidence, an' interfere wif th' efficient allocashun of capital on which our economic
prosperity an' asset values rest. It is impo'tant not t'unnermine th' highly sensitive ongwine process of
reallocashun of capital fum less t'mo'e produckive uses. Fo' produckivity an' stan'ards of livin' t'grow, not
only muss capital raised in markets be allocated efficiently, but internal cash flow, includin' th' depreciashun
charges fum th' existin' capital stock, muss be corntinuously direcked t'their most profitable uses. It is this
hyar continuous churnin', this hyar so-called creative destruckshun, thet has become so essential t'th' effeckive
deployment of advanced technologies by this hyar country on over recent decades. In this hyar regard, drif'
toward proteckshunist trade policies, which is allus so difficult t'revahse, is a much greater threat than is
junerally unnerstood, cuss it all t' tarnation. It is fine known thet ereckin' barriers t'th' free flow of fines an'
services acrost nashunal bo'ders unnermines th' divishun of labo' an' stan'ards of livin' by impedin' th'
adjestment of th' capital stock t'its most produckive uses. Not so fine unnerstood, in mah judgment, is th'
impack thet fear of growin' proteckshunism'd haf on profit speckashuns, an' hence on th' current values of
capital assets. Proteckshunism was a threat t'stan'ards of livin' when capital asset values were low relative
t'income. It becomes particularly pernicious in a invironment, sech as today's, when thet is no longer th' case.
In sum, it has been th' ability of our flexible an' innovative businesses an' wawk fo'ce thet has inabled th'
United States to take full advantage of emergin' technologies t'prodooce greater growth an' higher asset values.
Policy has facilitated this process by corntainin' inflashun an' by promotin' competitiveness through
deregulashun an' an open global tradin' system, dawgone it. Our tax gwine fo'ward--at th' Federal Resarve as
fine as in th' Congress an' Administrashun--is t'sestain an' stren'then these policies, which in turn haf
sestained an' stren'thened our now reco'd peacetime economic expanshun.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:27
aurator (A quite unique post, really.) ID#257151:


It is possible to be a little dyspeptic. Unlike Uniquity and Pregnancy, there ARE degrees of dyspepsia.

Beautiful Jewel thinks that all merkans may be axe-weldering murderers [donja love her malaporopisms?] this is why I try to shield her from many posts@kitco, they'd reinforce her stereotype.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:22
Reify (ANOTHER prediction?) ID#413109:
Copyright © 1998 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It looks to me like we may have seen tops in the indecies!

However after a drop, maybe a substantial one, we should come
back up for a test of the tops. That could be a good time for
some of the smaller caps to have their day in the sun.
I refer to RDC, FLC, CRK, CYBD just to mention some that I've
been watching.

Also recommend keeping an eye on how the bonds, utilities, and
bank stocks behave from here on in. They, I feel will be the
indicators of what to expect in the future.

DA pointed out the bonds in particular. This to me, makes good

Also check with Mike Sheller- he can look to the heavens and
give us a clue of a different nature.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:20
aurator (Eschatology) ID#257151:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Oh! I had not realised you've hunkered in the bunker. Your question deserves the more serious answer that Eldo gave you. For you have a real problem...And one I cannot help you with....

I, of course, cannot treat this bunker-hunkering too seriously. I used to consume SF like a piranha breaking a 19-day fast. I guess I've read a hundred dystopia novels. And, when I looked mathematically at the number of days that earth has been spinning around old sol:
365 x 4,000,000,00 and then looked at one human bean's expected lifespan: 365 x 70, the mathematical probability that we got an End Of World Situation in my lifetime, I'd have to say.....God don't play dice [Wait a minute, that wasn't me, that was Ike Einstein] I'd have to say...


Okay, so where does that leave us? I can either be right [I am disappointed that Kitco won't read my Macintosh -Option +V- as a tick]
I can be wrong. Of course, in your terms, if I'm wrong, I shall I be toast. I wonder if you've seen the Australian black-humour video Smoke Em If You've Got 'Em


If I'm right, well, I'll be toast some day anyway.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:19
Earl () ID#227238:
EMPs? Lawd, ain't nuthin' like gloom and doomers when they're a little dyspeptic. ...... Aurator: It's possible to be a little dyspeptic, ain't it? As opposed to a little mendacious or a little pregnant?

Eldo: I'll bite. What was Faraday's ice pail experiment?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:16
RB ( Y2Batteries) ID#411198:
Copyright © 1998 RB/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
After reading this article I found myself comparing these folks response to disaster planning
to those memories I have of my aunt keeping a veritable pantry of can goods and
essentials stored in the trunk of her car, every day of her life, after surviving the
Great Depression.
Her home was realitivly self sufficient back then and even had a stash of gold coins.
It still made a 50 year impression in her mind.
My Grandmother went to the bank, herself, one week before the bank runs began
and pulled all of the families money out, and the rest, as they say, is history.

We can expect the general population to buy
and plan for y2k on New Years Eve Day 1999 and we can expect
them to buy two extra loafs of bread each and two or three extra
gallons of water 2 batteries and a flashlight.

Oh and more thing; one manager said they sell 50% more frozen
dinners per shopping dollar than normal in preparation of a possible
power outage -- when I called the other managers back they
laughingly agreed.

mapleman ( a few days ago ) .. The return of the programers of consciousness.
Clue# 6. ( 3-1-6 ) , and others.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:05
Reify (Highrise if interested) ID#413109:
Date: Wed Jan 20 1999 23:35
HighRise ( World Control ) ID#401460:

In our politics, contact me I have an intersting article for
you that may be a bit of a shocker.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:05
Eldorado (@the scene) ID#226299:
Zeke -- Actually, any highly electrically conductive material should work. Even aluminum foil I would think. No wrinkles pointing in. Good grounding. ALL six surfaces with no 'leaks'.

Speaking of Faraday, anybody out there aquainted with his 'ice-pail' experiment?

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:03
Earl (Zeke: @23:03) ID#227238:
Given any event that includes EMP's; I think you will find that it's God's way of saying: All bets are off.

Date: Thu Jan 21 1999 00:02
Earl (Zeke: @23:03) ID#227238:
Given any event that includes EMP's; I think you will find that it's God's way of saying: All bets are off.

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