KITCO GOLD FORUM
1997-1999

index
Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:51
Skeptic (Kitco slow? try) ID#288100:
http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~limweech/kitco.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:46
ddb3 (texasgoldpost) ID#8763:
Mounties should be about 319, 320 delivered, If you have any questions my email is dave@precious-metals.net , or also you can get prices from

http://www.precious-metals.net

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:45
Oliver (Texasgoldpost) ID#242325:
Texasgoldpost:

Sorry but I bougth all Mounties...no more in the governmint pocket..!

Ask Bart for a good deal on something else.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:45
Oliver (Texasgoldpost) ID#242325:
Texasgoldpost:

Sorry but I bougth all Mounties...no more on the governmint pocket..!

Ask Bart for a good deal on something else.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:35
MiloTrdr (Charles Keeling .... (22:34 post) Thanks ...) ID#350358:
GREAT POST.

I'm appreciative of your prior post,

and glad you didn't take up the copper pipe/better than PVC thread....




Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:33
zeke (@Dutchman) ID#307274:
Looks like Bowden and his Henchman Mickey Andrews are beginning to suspect that the cheating mayhem-minded football they teach their players eventually catches up and costs big time. There is a God in heaven and his name is not JoPa. It's so hard for a Gator, but here goes:
Go Vols!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:30
ORCA (A further thought re the FRB and its management of Gold.) ID#231337:
Copyright © 1998 ORCA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
May I add another personal observation to my posting of 20:03. The paper is written with an arrogance that stems from two positions ... an academic who has no experience to back up a personal argument while ignoring history which comes with the territory, as the thoughts expressed must make the point thus proving the authors credibility; combined with the perspectives of a faceless bureaucrat working from a position without risk, and working for the
best political outcome of the political direction in place at that time. The paper reeks with these characteristics.

Having read countless internal government documents this one follows all the classic patterns: a one sided argument, based upon an authors bias, supporting a political objective and with an extremely limited perspective. It's results in a fundamentally flawed argument that's put forward.

But, it's been swallowed... hook, line and sinker. I believe IT HAS BEEN COMMISSIONED with the intent of justifying the end now being achieved... that is a complete manipulation of the markets by powers behind this current government. They saw the weakness in the administration, and used the FRB to chart a version of manipulation that charted what's happening now. That paper is one of the defining documents. They actually found someone who could put their outcome into a plausable plan. Who commissioned it ... read 6pak's ( Business Taking Care Of Business @ Corporate USofA ( Be Quiet.Consume..And Die ) posting of 21:59. It will add another clue.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:27
HighRise (While waiting) ID#401460:

11:32pm test post - this does not count the time I waited for the message page.

Well I thought I would use this page while I waited for my last post to be posted. Does anyone know how Gold or Prez Clinton is doing these days?

Well the last post of 11:22pm just appeared it only took 7 mins this time.

TN just scored. 20 to 9

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:20
APH (SnowBird) ID#255226:
Copyright © 1998 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
With your name you should be here tonight, 22 new snow and a projected temp of -15.

We are in a new month on the S&P with the monthly resistance line now at 1265. A top of some sort is due in the first few days of Jan.. I missed going short today by one tick. Sell the S&P above 1260 with a mental stop above 1265 you'll have to watch the trading and play it by ear. A solid close above 1265 could be the start of another leg up. This Dow is way over valued and the put/call ratio is out of wrack etc. etc.. So What! The Nikei looked the same st 10,000 and went to 40,000. A market like this blows out all the usual indicators. Watch how the market moves and reacts, it has a personality and its a defiant one and cocky too. Wait for something to come along and knock its block off, then get aggressively short on the rebound.

The XAU is holding up nicely a bottom is most likley in on the gold funds. Not sure about the metals would still like to see 277 gold and 4.40 silver but the odds of that happening are getting less and less every day. I'm long silver at 4.94.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:19
HighRise (3-4 Kitco pages helps.) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Is anyone else having a problem with Kitco?

It takes so long to access KITCO that I have had to return to my old solution of having 3 or 4 Kitco pages open and working at the same time while I am waiting 10 mins for one to open I click on another, and if I do it just right I can pick up 5 mins. on a post or an update.

Bart please fix this site it is to good to let it fall apart like this AGAIN.

Later I am going to paste in a 10 page BS epissle ( that;'s a document ) just for the heck of it to see how long it ties up the site. Just kidding a long Post

And by the way, TN and FL are really sloppy tonight, OSU is a much better team. If FL wins OSU should be #1 or tied for #1

I have to go, one of the other pages is coming up now.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:06
Texasgoldpost (I want to buy a couple of mounties....) ID#37292:
in the United States -- anybody know of any sources? And at what price would I expect to pay? It seems that $30 per coin shipping is a little much on, say 5 coins in addition to a $15 premium over the $310 buyback floor. Any ideas?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 23:00
Mole (physicists Discover the Austrian School) ID#34883:
http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~gjackson/econ93davies.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 22:51
JTF (Fascism Again? Russia this time?) ID#254321:
Copyright © 1998 JTF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All: There is a fellow by the name of Ravi Sarkar who examined Indian History over thousands of years, and was able to discern a human cycle. This cycle seems to repeat over and over in other cultures, modified somewhat by the political system in which it is seen:

1 ) Acquisitor phase -- wealth slowly accumulated in the financial types, at the expense of others.

2 ) Worker Phase -- the people overthrow the 'shackles' of their financial rulers, and place a 'warrior' at the 'throne'.

3 ) Warrior phase -- if the warrior is benevolent, good times begin, with benefits for all. Otherwise -- trouble for all.

4 ) Builder phase -- Good times continue, with many great works/projects initiated by the warrior phase. Eventually as the energies/focus of the people weaken, the acquisitors gain control.

Well -- it looks like the 'worker phase' in Russia is beginning. If the new 'warrior' is anti-semitic, this does not bode well for Russia, or for the rest of the world, let alone the Jewish people. The real acquisitors in Russia are the Gangsters, not the Jews -- but you have to focus the anger of the people against something to gain power, and what more convenient group than the Jewish?

Just like the unfortunate Chinese in Indonesia.

The Russian situation is looking more and more like pre-Hitler Germany, when a convenient target for the anger of the German ( now Russian ) people is needed. The group currently in power must deflect the anger of the people to some other group -- preferably smaller and defenseless.

http://www.WorldNetDaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990104_xex_never_again_.shtml

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 22:34
Charles Keeling (@ longj RE: Gold Ownership without storage....) ID#344225:
Copyright © 1998 Charles Keeling/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This term has to come from the lunatic fringe of
environmentalist's who have been brought to us by
Al Gore. Bruce Babbitt, who is waiting his time
to be sentenced as a criminal of the WJC regime,
considers all of the publickly owned lands to be
the STORAGE PLACE FOR GOLD, that is ( or soon will be )
owned by the government. Thus the term: Gold
ownership without storage.

If the US embraces this BS, it will be the US that
winds up importing GOLD as well as oil. This is the prime
reason that I do NOT own any US Gold stocks.

No matter how you look at the issue, it goes back to
it's political roots. WJC, Al Gore, Bruce Babbit and the
current bunch of environmental nuts that run the government.
Bleeding heart LIBERALS. UGH!

All of it is there for one reason: To allow Capital to
escape overseas in order to avoid UNIONS. Cheap labor.
WJC is indeed SLICK. He convinced the unions to back him
and then sold them out while knowing that he would take
BRIBES from big business to send more USA jobs overseas.

This is a good thing for all large multi-national
Corporations, but in the end it will be a very bad thing
for those who prefer to live in the USA under our current
protection of human rights. Our CONSTITUTION.

Would you like to be in China making Nike tennis shoes?
How about working in Mexico making automobiles?

The current administration does not really care about the
environment. If they did,why would they tolerate the
environmental polution that goes on in Mexico. BIG busines
pays the bribes that politicians need to get re-elected.
Politicians do not need the small contributions of the
working class that pays the taxes.

Television time for political campaigning costs big dollars.
Politiciians sell their souls for the dollars that they need
in order to buy TV time so that they can get re-elected.

This impacts more than the POG.

You look to the South at Brazil. They burn the greatest
forrest in the world, and we send the IMF to bail them out.
If the USA cared about the Environment we would turn our backs
on their current economic problem. Instead, we pony up the
money neded by the IMF so that they can continue on with
poluting the entire world.

Mexico turned the lower Rio Grand into an open sewer that
caused untold human suffering and disease along the USA
border. The USA rewarded them with NAFTA. Our leaders
are hypocrites. They say one thing broadcast over TV to the
sheep, and they do something else behind our backs.

Mining company polution is not what it was 40-50 years ago.
Our government officials are living behind the times. I
personally think that the whole environmental issue is
nothing but a smoke screen to cloud the real reason why
business of all kinds are being driven out of the USA.

The USA can say: GOLD? We have it in the ground.
Asia & Europe could very well say: Gold? We have it in our
vaults. Is there any doubt who would come out ahead in
the long run?

The tobacco companys are suffering in much the same way as
mining companys are suffering. The government is driving
them out of the USA.

Enough ranting.....Go WJC government, and then GOLD will be
free.




Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 22:14
PCM (re: 17:28 post, big buyer of OEX puts) ID#169332:

January 4th index put-call ratio was moderately optimistic 1.00; equity put-call ratio was slightly optimistic: 0.38.

If there's a big buyer of OEX puts,he's way ahead of the band.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 22:13
Retearivs (G.A, GG.A) ID#410196:

Selby and others, thanks.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 22:11
Cyclist (Flashpoints) ID#339274:
With all the potential accidents to happen within the geographical
proximity of Europe.Anyone living in Europe and having their wealth to
protect,is and will turn their eyes to North America for solace.
Europe will have compounded nightmares to deal with, the Euro ,2yk, possible Russian pressures,and the multitude of refugees looking for the good life.
Longterm US and Canada will still be the place to live and to weather the storm looming on the horizon. The US dollar will rise in tandem with gold vis a vis the Euro after the first quarter this year.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:59
6pak (Business Taking Care Of Business @ Corporate USofA (Be Quiet.Consume..And Die) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
THE BANKERS' REGIME

Robert B. Reich

Democracy has turned upside down, of late. At this writing, the nation is mesmerized by Oval Sex and related scandal. Elected representatives in Washington are talking about little else.

Consider, first, the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) . In the old days, when America still had a fiscal policy to speak of ( that is, when presidents and Congress could spur the economy through public spending ) , and when money didn’t rush nearly as fast or as easily across national borders, the FOMC’s decisions were important, although not dominant.

And what happens to interest rates, both short-term and long-term, depends largely on the decisions made by the FOMC.

Who, exactly, decides? Alan Greenspan chairs the FOMC, but eleven other people sit on it, and Greenspan needs a majority of their votes.

Who are these people and how did they get there? Six seats go to the other governors of the Federal Reserve Board, who are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, for fourteen-year terms.

Four of the current crop were appointed by Bill Clinton, one was appointed by George Bush, and the other seat is empty.

The five remaining seats belong to the presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks.

One of them belongs permanently to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The other four rotate gradually among the other regional Fed Banks.

Among the current occupants is William Poole, age 61, now president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Poole is a strict monetarist who has been an outspoken advocate of zero inflation, regardless of the sharp increase in joblessness that would result. Until last March, Poole was a professor of economics at Brown University. In the 1980s, he was one of the three members of Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers.

From 1985 until last March, he was also an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.

Another regional seat belongs to Jerry Jordan, age 56, president of the Cleveland Fed. Jordan shares Poole’s views as well as his background as a former member of Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the U.S. Gold Commission.

And he has advised the German Bundesbank, perhaps the most inflation-phobic body in the world.

Who appointed Poole and Jordan, and the other regional bank presidents? The boards of the regional banks.

Who sits on the boards of the regional banks? Mostly, presidents or senior officers of banks and other financial institutions.

Who elected them to the boards? Their predecessors.

Prevailing interest rates in the United States play a critical role. Higher rates render America a relatively more attractive haven; lower rates, a less attractive one.

Thus it is not entirely coincidental that the Asian crisis commenced only months after the FOMC raised interest rates slightly in March 1997. The extent of the devaluation in any given place around the globe has been in rough proportion to the prior dependence of that place on American capital.

Only the American dollar and, significantly, the British pound, have been ascending. ( A key explanation for why the pound has joined the dollar as a magnet for world money is that the Bank of England has increased interest rates five times since Tony Blair gave the bank its independence in the summer of 1997. )

Thousands of people have been murdered in Indonesian riots. Workers have gone on strike in South Korea. Labor unrest threatens much of the East Asian region. If the crisis continues or deepens, democracy itself may be threatened, in East Asia as well as in the precarious democracy of Russia.

Who decides on these stringent conditions? The managing director of the IMF is Michel Camdessus, age 65, who began his third five-year term in January 1997.

Before his appointment, Camdessus was governor of the Bank of France. Camdessus’s first managing director is Stanley Fischer, age 55, who until his appointment was a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Who appointed the two of them? The Executive Board of the IMF.
Who are they? Mainly banking and financial types, placed there by the various governments who finance the IMF.

A third and final power center should be included in this inventory: the U.S. Treasury Department. Twice in the last four years, Treasury officials have directly intervened in world currency markets. In 1995 they assembled $40 billion in IMF and Treasury loans to prop up the Mexican peso. Then last June they converted an estimated $2 billion into yen, temporarily halting the yen’s slide.

Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin confers regularly with Alan Greenspan about what should be done to keep the global economy afloat. Greenspan’s views carry particular weight, because it’s up to Greenspan to reassure his colleagues—who might otherwise be inclined to follow Poole and Jordan—that the sharp run-up in asset prices in the United States caused by the vast inflows of foreign capital will not be inflationary.

Treasury officials, in turn, confer regularly with Camdessus and Fischer about how to get global money to stay put. The Treasury officials’ opinions carry particular weight with the IMF officials, because the IMF depends for much of its ongoing funding on the United States.

One question to ask is whether the risks and trade-offs implicit in their decisions—involving unemployment and growth, social insecurity and economic stability, in the United States and elsewhere around the world—are the correct ones.

The economic and financial specialists responsible for making these choices have no particular political or social expertise; and, let us emphasize again, they are neither directly accountable to democratic processes nor visible to the people whose lives are profoundly affected by what they decide
http://epn.org/prospect/41/41reich.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:58
Auric (DNA) ID#257312:

A little rusty on your genetics? Forgot the
difference between a phenotype and a marker?
Want to know what the odds are that that
nucleotide chain came from you? Then this is the site for you-- http://vector.cshl.org/resources/aboutdnafingerprinting.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:57
longj (more on 582) ID#30345:
-
The paper states that the goverment who sells first when all CBs are not selling makes more. More of what..well they are paid fiat for the gold sale. What happens when the currency they recieve devalues for lack of faith....they, the sellers, then become losers not gainers....

The paper assumes a constant marginal extraction cost...NOT...Miners will tend to mine the economical mine ores first leading the governemts to sell or lease their gold at lower than mean prices during those periods.....Further as the required resources ( energy, labor and chemicals ) become more scarce or plentiful the cost of extraction will change. Technological advances and regulation changes also dramatically affect the extraction costs.

The paper also suggests that the depletion demand is population driven.....this neglects shifts in sentiment and the fear/greed thing and the interaction of gold stores with the perception of economic health of a region which can also dramatically drive investment and overall welfare.


Also the assumption that the government can recover gold from it's borrowers is not without risk....the additional burden of borrowers who take excessive risks with gold lending capital will require loans to be forgiven and may result in the outright loss of gold for future lending ( LTCM? )

This paper may be driving the policy of CBs for lending practices but it downplays and dismisses the value of gold in settling international monetary crises..the fact that the authors treat gold in this essay as a monetary instrument with costs of production, while comparing it to the value of fiat ( with no real value ) and little relative production cost is laughable...this is the true irony of the piece: gold money in vaults is compared to paper money sitting idle. While storing printed paper may have little value ( since its value is always decreasing ) gold is a really stable form of storage. Paper fiat is a like leaky capacitor, gold is an efficient and elegant store of power.

While the equations, theorems, lemmas and look impressive; the simplifications, assumptions, and motives of this paper lead me to question the validity of the conclusions. This is not to say that the strategy will not be employed for a time, only that the model predictions may be questionable in the real cutthroat world of currency wars, political upheaval, policy changes, and investor sentiments.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:57
neer-do-well (Orca-Allen(USA)-Aurator) ID#391172:
Orca- Your 20:03 is what I've been looking for. Now to rationalize the effects of such policies and hopefully get a handle?

Allen ( USA ) - Your 19:20 struck a cord with me,especially those who would be masters rather than servants. Masters for awhile OK, remains to be seen how much longer.

Aurator- What is is, isis is.
What isis is, is is

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:54
kapex (To all: I've said it before, so I'll say it again,) ID#218249:
Copyright © 1998 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

SELL!!!!!! Sorry, it's just that no one is listening.
http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/CurrentPC.html
The market has reached a level on the put call ratio that was last seen just before a 550-point decline in 1997. This market is screaming, actually it's more like ringing a bell for those who know what it sounds like! Here is a measure of the markets health that has confirmed every new high in the NYSE up until July of 98.
http://decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/ADCurrent.html

It is truly amazing that there is no mention of an imminent decline like there was last summer before the July top. At that time people had been calling for some sort of top in the 2nd or 3rd week of July back in May. Now, it's so quiet you could hear a pin drop…
On the other hand Barons just listed a group of analysts that, if I'm not mistaken were all, or just about all were looking for the market to move higher than it's current levels at some point this year.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm… What about the AOL poll that I posted yesterday,Hmmmm
Once again after this monumental decline has all but taken place, we will hear how everyone saw it coming and were positioned properly.

Remember, it makes no difference what Event happens to ( so call ) trigger the imminent decline, hindsight will show how dangerous this market really is. Anyone who invests in this market is booking their bed in the loony bin.

Take a look at the Russell 2000, http://www.iqc.com/chart/default.asp?w=600&period=180&time=day&chart=bar&chart1=ma&i0=6&i1=3&i2=4&i3=2&s=linear&symbol=%24iux
or the Value Line index. They are confirming that this market is on very borrowed time. The last thing the market needs before it goes kaput is to have everyone convinced it can only go higher! LIKE NOW!!! Are you catching my drift guys? I'm not trying to claim timer of the year here, only LOUDLY expressing some grave concerns for this very sick market. Good luck with your trading but remember, the mistake ( if you make any ) should be that you were caught on the short side, not the long.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:35
BigFisherman (Nikkei continues plunge) ID#258273:
down 256 as of 11am

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:33
MoReGoLd (@Worth it's weight in G G G G... NAW........) ID#348286:
Copyright © 1998 MoReGoLd/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
EBay Hits a Homer
Reuters

4:30 p.m.  4.Jan.99.PST
Baseballs that Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa swatted into the record books in last year's race for the home-run crown will be auctioned online this week, in bidding that could reach US$1 million for McGwire's record-setting 70th home run of the season.

The auction, on the eBay trading site, will offer four record-setting balls -- the 63rd, 67th, 68th, and 70th home runs -- hit by St. Louis Cardinals slugger McGwire, as well the 61st, 64th, and 66th hit by Sosa, his friendly rival from the Chicago Cubs.

The bidding will run on eBay between 5 and 11 January, then move to New York's Madison Square Garden, where the sale will be concluded 12 January by Guernsey's auction house. The bidding that day also will be carried on eBay.

McGwire, chased by Sosa, broke Roger Maris' 1961 homer mark of 61 on 8 September, and never looked back, launching home runs seemingly at will to wind up with 70. Sosa finished with 66. Maris broke Babe Ruth's mark of 60 in a season 34 years before.

The eBay bidding will begin with seven separate private auctions. The top three bids for each home-run ball will advance to the final auction, and online buyers will be able to raise their maximum bids any time during the final auction against live bidders.

To take part in the auction through eBay, participants must follow a bidder verification process and become registered eBay users. They also must provide financial qualifications to Guernsey's by obtaining an irrevocable letter of credit for their maximum bid, with a minimum of $100,000, and purchase an auction catalog from Guernsey's.

On Monday, The New York Times reported that the fan who caught McGwire's 70th home-run ball already had been offered as much as $1 million for it.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:27
James (Greenstone Gold@You said AU is power & control. IMO, Power today comes) ID#252150:
Copyright © 1998 James/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
from a cruise missile. As you know the U.S. went off the AU standard in 1971, & is more powerfull now than ever. Switzerland has a AU backed currency, but they don't really have any power as can be witnessed by the way they have been harrassed & forced to make concession after concession over their natzi Au. Justifiably so, IMO.

We are in an era of realpolitik & until the U.S. has their currency seriously weakened, they will continue to be the most powerfull State.
I believe that if there is a real serious threat to their currency, they will take military action of some sort to maintain their hegemony.
Possibly, even against Euroland.

As for who is buying the AU. We have no way of knowing. For all we know they could be simply shuffling it among themselves.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:26
MiloTrdr (Charles Keeling ...PVC?) ID#350358:
I agree PVC sucks .... but

Considering all the pipes leading to a house are generally PVC, what's is to be gained by using copper?

( Have been thinking of building a little fortress .... )

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:21
6pak (Inflation/Deflation & Jobs/Wages @ Amgen & Think Tank Central Banker's & Thurow & unemployment) ID#335190:
Copyright © 1998 6pak/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Is There an Upside to Downsizing?

Robert Samuelson Irwin Stelzer Isabel Sawhill Lester Thurow

Airdate: April 19, 1996

ANNOUNCER: Think Tank is made possible by Amgen, recipient of the presidential National Medal of Technology. Amgen -- helping cancer patients through cellular and molecular biology, improving lives today and bringing hope for tomorrow.

MR. THUROW: But, see, I -- your original question was: Forget whether it's true or false, what's the politics of it? It seems to me the politics of it is, if Mr. Buchanan had been running in the Democratic primaries, he would have gotten more than 25 or 30 percent of the vote.
Because, if you think of it, he was sounding like Roosevelt. Malefactors of great wealth. You know, all of these kind of phrases. And I think there is a floating hostile group out there that are a little bit like that movie Network. Remember where he said, Throw open the window, throw your head out and scream, `I'm mad as hell'.'' I think a lot of --

MR. WATTENBERG: And I'm not going to take it anymore.

MR. THUROW: I think we're going to get a very unhappy middle class, because whatever you believe about absolute wages, the distribution is spreading out, and you get this very widespread sentiment at the moment among the middle class that

my children are not going to happen the standard of living that I had; they're going to have a lower standard of living. And I think in a country like the United States, that is politically explosive.

Now, I think we're going to have capitalism 20 years from now because there's no other system that exists. Socialism, communism, all these others -- Naziism -- all these other things have gone away.

But I think, if you think you don't have an unhappy middle class, then you're not living in the real America.
http://www.pbs.org/thinktank/transcript.304.html

THE CRUSADE THAT'S KILLING PROSPERITY

Lester Thurow

The great untold story of the American economy in the 1990s is the disguised high rate of unemployment and its direct impact on stagnating living standards.

Properly calculated, our rate of joblessness is well into double digits.
No wonder workers have no bargaining power to get their share of an increasingly productive economy.

Slow growth has also generated an enormous contingent workforce of underemployed people. There are 8.1 million American workers in temporary jobs, 2 million who work on call,

and 8.3 million self-employed independent contractors ( many of whom are downsized professionals who have very few clients but call themselves self-employed consultants because they are too proud to admit that they are unemployed ) .

Most of these more than 18 million people are also looking for more work and better jobs. Together these contingent workers account for another 14 percent of the workforce. In the words of Fortune magazine, Upward pressure on wages is nil because so many of the employed are these `contingent' workers who have no bargaining power with employers, and payroll workers realize they must swim in the same Darwinian ocean. Like the unemployed, these contingent workers generate downward wage pressures.

They have either been dropped from, or have dropped out of, the normal
working economy. Some we know as the homeless; others have disappeared into the underground illegal economy.

Put these three groups together and in the aggregate about one-third of the American workforce is potentially looking for more work than they now have.

Add in another 11 million immigrants ( legal and illegal ) who entered the United States from 1980 to 1993 to search for more work and higher wages, and one has a sea of unemployed workers, underemployed workers, and newcomers looking for work.

THE REAL INFLATION RATE

Inflation itself has already ended. But as long as the policymakers are convinced that the ghost of inflation will at any minute reappear, they will operate their policies as if inflation were a real threat.

Officially the rate of inflation in the consumer price index ( CPI ) fell from 3 percent in 1993 to 2.6 percent in 1994, and to 2.5 percent in 1995, but Chairman Greenspan had himself testified to Congress that the CPI exaggerated inflation by as much as 1.5 percentage points

Health care is a sector whose inflationary dynamics have little to do with macroeconomic pressures. Since health care accounts for 15 percent of GDP and health care prices were rising at a 5 percent annual rate in 1994, mathematically another 0.75 percentage points of inflation can be traced to health care ( more than one-third of 1994's total inflation ) .


Left to their own devices, those who operate central banks are never going to declare a permanent victory over inflation.

The reasons are simple. If the battle against inflation is primary, central bankers will be described as, and actually be, the most important economic players in the game.

Without inflation, they run rather unimportant institutions.

http://www.epn.org/prospect/25/25thur.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:17
Oliver (Keep hope alive!) ID#242325:
I am on the rebound...with more powder and psy strengh..!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:15
Speed (Jims) ID#29048:
Copyright © 1998 Speed/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I don't share your negative take on silver. News out of India is a minor irritation. Smuggling will increase to thwart the government tax-collectors.

Silver was shorted this morning and it is recovering nicely. This is from the CRB Index market review:

Traders said that silver was pushed lower by sales from a large trade house and a couple of funds, noting that sell-stops were triggered as it dropped below $5.
It hit light stops, then the selling sort of ran out of steam and it
bounced back a little, said one trader. After the initial selloff by the larger players, locals also jumped in as sellers, and then silver managed to find sufficient support to trade quietly for the rest of the session.
Traders said that it was difficult to find a reason for the move, noting that a big selloff in base metals possibly had a spillover affect on silver.

The whole review is found at:

http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/story2333.html

Cheer up!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:14
Auric (squeezer) ID#257312:

Come to think of it, haven't had an offer in the mail for a home equity loan in a while. Used to get 7 or 8 a week.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:09
Realistic (A year ago today (educational reality check!)) ID#410194:
Copyright © 1998 Realistic/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 22:35
cherokee__A ( @-------chaos-and-flux------be's-amux-us-all!!!! ) ID#344308:
+4 and counting.......very, very soon....the pressure wave from
afar approaches.......better be on high ground......
all hell is fixing to break out............
cherokee!; ) ---focused-on-the-locus-------

Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 21:05
The Hatt ( THE UNWINDING HAS BEGUN!!!!!!! ) ID#294232:
In fact it has been going on for sometime now as the rich slowly but
surely sell their soon to be worthless paper to the poor. The break in
S.E.ASIA was welcomed by those who could still create liquidity in the
markets by talking new year rallies and all that GARBAGE about buy and
hold! The Mutual Fund Meltdown has started and for anyone trying
to time their moves I have some solid advice,SELL SELL SELL!

Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 04:34
Tom Pirie ( Gold Market Price -Vs- Gold Lease Rate ) ID#37341:
I just received a mailing about the GOLD PANIC: Locked in for 1998!
Although I am usually leary about bulk mailings, get rich in stocks,
and stock market advice newsletters... this one had some info that might
be interesting to some of you. A gentleman by the name of Jim Blanchard
performed an analysis between the market price of gold and the short-term ( one month ) gold lease rate...

Date: Sun Jan 04 1998 18:53
vronsky ( GOLD LOAN DEFAULTS ) ID#426220:
IMCO, precisely because of the CENTRAL BANK GOLD LOANS ( among many other fundamental reasons elaborated upon here at Kitco ad nauseam ) , there is NOW a floor under gold prices.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:08
Oliver (longj a real good one!) ID#242325:
from longj: 20:43 hres

the CBs are about ready to re-learn the benefits of inflammable money......GOLD ROCKS.....paper flames ....and e-money is without
substance....
Thatsss a good one.....

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:01
BigFisherman (Japanese news) ID#258273:
Market continues decline.

Speculators hammer dollar to test its bottom...

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 21:00
BigFisherman (Japanese news) ID#258273:
Market continues decline.

Speculators hammer dollar to test its bottom...

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:57
squeezer (y2k test) ID#29036:
i attempted to test this site for y2k preparedness this weekend. the protocol: set the date to jan 1, 00, and hit the submit button. after some pause, it worked. am happy to report that the first post of the millenium was from rj, explaining why the price of gold should exceed $300 in the new year. suddenly, power failed and have been unable to duplicate the results...

all seriousness aside, have been trying to re-finance my mortgage. my banker called today, offered 6%, waiver of points if i can close in next 2 weeks.......makes you wonder what's going on in that realm.....

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:57
Charles Keeling (@ HighRise RE: Copper Plumbing) ID#344225:
Lots of building going on.

Lots of PVC pipe being used. Perhaps Copper is
not the indicator it used to be. Especially when it comes
to plumbing a house.

I know...PVC suks. But they still use it.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:52
gagnrad (Speaking of Old Guys, this old guy nearly had a heart attack) ID#43460:
When I saw that RANGY finally had an uptick today! http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=RANGY&d=3m

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:52
jims (If the Euro is to be bullish for gold you could have fooled me) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If the Euro is supposed to be bullish for gold by being bearish for the dollar you could have fooled me today. Gold is so weak that a slight increase in the import tax on Indian gold sent it tumbling and silver into a nose bleed dive. VERY WEAK FOLKS!!!!

The dollar was down, bonds were down, the stock market took a hit and silver and gold were on their tails.

Give it UP. These are controlled bear markets at best, weak over supplied long term sell offs in a deflationary trend most likely.

There will have to be a sea change in investor demand of gold and silver before $5.50 and $300 could be attained, let alone sustained.

1999 starting out to look like more of the same.

If you must be long precious metal stocks investigate Stillwater Mining ( SWC ) - best performing miner on the boards currently trading at $27 with $50 as a '99 target at current metal prices.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:52
jims (If the Euro is to be bullish for gold you could have fooled me) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If the Euro is supposed to be bullish for gold by being bearish for the dollar you could have fooled me today. Gold is so weak that a slight increase in the import tax on Indian gold sent it tumbling and silver into a nose bleed dive. VERY WEAK FOLKS!!!!

The dollar was down, bonds were down, the stock market took a hit and silver and gold were on their tails.

Give it UP. These are controlled bear markets at best, weak over supplied long term sell offs in a deflationary trend most likely.

There will have to be a sea change in investor demand of gold and silver before $5.50 and $300 could be attained, let alone sustained.

1999 starting out to look like more of the same.

If you must be long precious metal stocks investigate Stillwater Mining ( SWC ) - best performing miner on the boards currently trading at $27 with $50 as a '99 target at current metal prices.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:43
longj (@ORCA ---that FRB paper 582 ) ID#30345:
-
I too have read that entire piece more than a few times, I think this is being adopted by the CBs for their position toward gold ( for the moment ) . They neglect the stabilization benefits provided by a store of wealth ( gold ) ....these are not assigned any value....I also agree with your observation that there is a certain lack of reality in the piece....they do this because it is not easily treated in the math. Perception is a key element that is also lacking here; public sentiment and the fear/greed thing is no where to be mentioned....nor is the unexpected event that disrupts the plan like a good old fashioned war...They also fail to address the reverse side of the argument ( if the CBs cannot act in concert ) ..nowhere is the mechanism for restraint of fiat money growth addressed ..finally what is the corrupt cook that came up with government gold ownership without storage; what do they ( CBs ) plan to do keep a database of gold hoarders for future confiscation in a crisis?...Just enjoy the cheap gold if you can buy it..and hang on to it..the CBs are about ready to re-learn the benefits of inflammable money......GOLD ROCKS.....paper flames ....and e-money is without substance....JOPO.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:42
strat (FWIW) ID#93241:
Copyright © 1998 strat/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I was in Europe this fall and, and among other things, was looking for some graves ( my uncle who died in 1943 fighting the Germans in Italy and a particular Russian buried in France ) . I was very impressed by the French cemeteries and the legacy of war that is to be seen there. The Europeans have been fighting each other since time immemorial and I have a hard time believing that they will still be on the same page three years from now regarding the Euro. Personally, I don't think the Euro wil mean diddly squat to POG. Gold, when it rebounds, will stand on its own two feet and won't need the Euro or anything else to help it.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:31
Aragorn III (Allen(USA)...YOU say 'Tomato', I say 'Tomato'...) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
We both say gold is money, par excellence. I recognize that we are in FUNDAMENTAL agreement.
I mentioned the point in an effort to save you, and any like you, all undue aggitation. There is no avoiding the truth of the matter.

Money in a civilized and capable society should be rejected utterly if it is without value. A commodity has value, and as it is uniquely suited on other accounts, gold is a financial commodity par excellence--and its role as an industrial commodity is subservient; and truly such use ( as jewelry ) generally connotes luxury. ( You must admit, to go about with money as ornamental clothing or money as repairwork for teeth is flaunting while another substance might suffice! )
Given all possible choices for money, would it be prudent that something of no value would come into prominent use, and find much support for its continuation by all persons of clear thought? Certainly not. The requisite value is found in the non-consumable commodity uniquely suited for the purpose at hand...gold. Consider the infancy of man and substances of value for which he strove with vigor...foodstuffs, building materials, manufactural materials...all things of value...commodities one and all, including gold. The essence of money came later, and did not as a result strip the notion of value ( commodity ) from gold.

Be at peace. There is one gold. It is unique as a financial commodity ( silver was an evolutionary aide like clamshells ) .

You remain absolutely correct in your assertion that it is an odious practice, by those who generalize statements of commodities, to include gold in the mix for purpose of representing trends of one sort or another. I think you could as easly see a repugnance in letting gold reside in the same sentence with fiat currencies for similar purposes, yet out of practicality it does remain an immutable measuring device for such a unique purpose, does it not? As much as it stands alone, so it is worthy of comparison, but never to generalization with others--whether they be other commodities or other currencies. I think on that we can agree.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:26
Tantalus (@Spock - so sorry, got my deficits mixed up.) ID#317211:
Is the one so much different than the other?
Or are they different sides of the same coin?

A dying empire with ever more tenuous lines-of-supply.
( ie...Rome, Trantor )

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:12
gagnrad (dirt, re SWC, old news for an old guy!) ID#43460:
Try not to panic. An Old guy like you needs his rest! ( 8-^] ) SWC announced a 3/2 split some weeks ago. http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/981208/co_stillwa_1.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:11
ERLE (Nick Chase's Contrarian is always a good read) ID#190411:
http://206.33.81.20/view/1998/view1298.htm

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:09
BigFisherman (Spock) ID#258273:
You are blatently wrong. Kaplan has not been bullish for ten months. When gold hit 315 or so he said sell gold equities. He did not return to a strongly bullish stance until late Summer, just prior to the 70% rebound in XAU. Then he backed off a bit this Fall. He upgraded today to strongly bullish. We shall see if he maintains his record.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:06
Selby (Gold is a commodity) ID#286230:
wwwWebster says a commodity is:

1 : an economic good: as a : a product of agriculture or mining b : an article of commerce
especially when delivered for shipment *commodities futures* c : a mass-produced unspecialized product *commodity chemicals* *commodity memory chips*

Of course the definition does leave out --vehicle for wishes and dreams .

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:05
Selby (Gold is a commodity) ID#286230:
wwwWebster says:

1 : an economic good: as a : a product of agriculture or mining b : an article of commerce
especially when delivered for shipment *commodities futures* c : a mass-produced unspecialized product *commodity chemicals* *commodity memory chips*

Of course the definition does leave out --vehicle for wishes and dreams .

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:03
ORCA (Gold and the Federal Reserve Board ) ID#231337:
Copyright © 1998 ORCA/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I have read the article entitled A Note on Government Gold Policies, June 4, 1997, and would like to make a couple of comments regarding this very academic paper available at http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/pubs/ifdp/1997/582/default.htm and then open the full paper version. It was written by Dale Henderson of the Federal Reserve Board, and Stephen Grant, University of Michigan.

I have found, from personal experience that any approach to a real world problem through the eyes of a combination of a bureaucrat and an academic is fundamentally flawed. The real world experience is not there to temper what sound like a very logical argument on paper. That appears to be the case here, and if this paper and thought, formed any part of the current action on the part of the federal reserve board... look out!

A couple of comments, and then I leave it to others to add their comments. Firstly, the approach taken asserts that gold has no value but to be depleted, or at least depleted and replenished at no more than the depletion rate, thus using gold as nothing more than an asset which is to be sold to gain nothing more than the monetary and current economic value, or as is stated... to be valued in terms of welfare value. No knowledge of gold as a stabilizing monetary benchmark is demonstrated. Secondly, the paper strongly points to a concerted effort of the part of all governments to act together for this transfer of wealth... ( gold in the vaults to the welfare of the masses ) to work. Thirdly, it won't take anyone long to see where the $300 watermark came from. Its the design point of this strategy.

You need only read about the first 6 - 10 pages to get the drift. It won't take you long.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:03
Speed (Dirt) ID#29048:
SWC split 3 for 2 and continues to be the best mining stock around.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 20:02
snowbird (APH-- If you are available your opinion would be appreciated) ID#285392:
How do you feel about the Dow, S&P and precious metals?

Thanks

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:55
tolerant1 (The Hatt, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...America has no clue and they are going to) ID#20359:
get hammered...brutally...in every facet of their existence...all show and no go don't run forever...thud...

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:49
ERLE (Fleckenstine is back.) ID#190411:
I think that he's a bit exasperated.
http://www.stocksite.com/features/contrarian/rap/

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:43
Selby (Goldcorp) ID#286230:
Copyright © 1998 Selby/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
TORONTO, Jan. 4 /CNW/ - GOLDCORP INC. ( TSE/ME: G.A, G.B; NYSE: GG.A,
GG.B ) is pleased to announce today that it has entered into an agreement with
a group of three Canadian chartered banks, Bank of Montreal, The Bank of Nova
Scotia and Royal Bank of Canada, pursuant to which the Banks will provide to
Goldcorp a five-year term loan of US$60 million.
The purpose of the term loan is to finance the development of the High
Grade Zone at Goldcorp's Red Lake Mine. As previously reported by Goldcorp, a
positive feasibility study on the project dated September 1998 was completed
by Watts, Griffis and McOuat, an independent geological and engineering
consulting firm. The feasibility study indicates that the project has a
payback of 17 months with an internal rate of return of 49% based on a gold
price of US$300 per ounce, a recovery rate of 83% and an average cash
operating cost of US$88 per ounce.
The interest cost on funds drawn-down under the term loan will be LIBOR
plus 2.50%. After final completion of the development plan, the interest cost
will be LIBOR plus an amount ranging between 1.25% and 2.25%, depending on
Goldcorp achieving certain financial tests. In addition, Goldcorp is also
required to hedge 450,000 ounces of gold production from the Wharf Mine over a
period of five years.
The term loan and gold production hedging will be secured by, among other
things, a floating charge on all of Goldcorp's assets. After final completion,
all security will be released by the Banks. The loan will mature on December
31, 2003.
The closing of the term loan is subject to the finalization and execution
of definitive documentation by Goldcorp and the Banks, and is expected to be
completed during February 1999.
Surface and underground projects are being carried out at the Red Lake
Mine as per the development plan. Merit Consultants International Inc. has
been retained to act as Construction Managers for the development. Merit will
provide overall direction for scheduling, cost control and implementation of
the development plan.
Tender proposals for the detailed engineering of the processing plant and
for the underground development and construction program have been received
from selected consultants and contractors. It is expected that both contracts
will be awarded shortly.
Goldcorp is a North American-based gold producer. In addition to its Red
Lake Mine, Goldcorp owns and operates the Wharf Mine, an open pit gold mine
located in the Black Hills of South Dakota, and two industrial mineral mines
located in Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:43
The Hatt (America is fast asleep!) ID#294232:
Copyright © 1998 The Hatt/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Many Americans have been put to sleep and have no idea just how bad things are and the degree of economic disaster is out of their control. That is what you get for being a debtor nation. The world is beginning to see just how OVERVALUED the USD really is. The longer the EU remains strong the more pressure the USD will feel. Rates are about to rise as more dollars find their way home and the inflationary pressures begin to show themselves as a result of running those printing presses overtime. The future will be painful as the average citizen realizes that he or she has been sucked into a ponzi game that was designed to create the largest ever redistribution of wealth. Gold will shine but not until the average citizen understands that the smoke they smell is from their burning currencies and equities. IMHO the U.S. has crossed that line in the sand and a depression is unavoidable!!!!!!!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:37
Chicken man (AllenUSA @ Gold) ID#341297:
Right ON!...that is what this whole game is about...BTW..How cum we are not hearing anything about the % of gold reserves the EURO will have backing it?...IMHO..10%

Just a thought..Chicken man..

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:36
FOX-MAN (COMEX METAL WAREHOUSE TOTALS...) ID#288186:

COMEX Metal Warehouse statistics for Dec. 31

-- TOTALS
Gold 809,306 - 161 troy ounces
Silver 76,300,596 + 493,133 troy ounces
Copper 93,908 + 0 short tons
*******************************************************************
Be sure to check out Steve Kaplan's site for the COT numbers!
Here's the link: http://www.investor1.com/topframe_kaplan.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:36
longj (India to consider gold bond deposits) ID#30345:
http://www.yahoo.co.uk/headlines/19981229/financial/0914958731-0000024592.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:30
HighRise (Allen(USA)) ID#401460:

YES, I agree. Gold is not a commodity. as we define commodities.

Thanks for the post.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:23
HighRise (Japan) ID#401460:


http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sthome.html

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:20
Allen(USA) (Aragorn III) ID#257351:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Re: commodities

My thought is that a commodity is what is to be used, to be consumed. Wheat, copper, pig snouts. Whereas gold is not consumed. It is fabricated into jewelry ( which is used by most of the world as a form of savings ) or it is used as a real money ( international financial system ) .

Silver is dominated by industrial use. But it also has a history as money. By and large the metal is consumed in industrial manufacture.

Gold is used to a small degree as a manufacturing material. But the main use is as money and, to a much lesser degree, as adornment.

Its the 40,000 tonnes that CB's own as reserves which tells me a story. A story that says, Gold is the quanta of financial physics.

IMHO any mental model we construct that might mimic the behavior of gold in this 'market' must be pretty close to the market behavior itself. If gold's behavior were more commodity than monetary then we should expect to see commodity like behavior in its pricing. We don't see that. What we see is a monetary metal with supercharged political properties which must be chained to the pillars like Samson, lest the hero wreak havoc, by those who wish to be its masters rather than its servants.

So ,IMHO, it is still worth a mention that if gold does not behave like the other commodities it is because it is not a commodity.

I know it seems awefully pedantic to keep mentioning this. There are many here who disagree with that assessment. I guess I just need to say it to hear myself say it in 'public'. I just can't help it. I'm obsessive. And compulsive. And ...

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:15
Spock (MoReGoLd) ID#210114:
Yeah fair. Comment. Time will tell. But.....

The $US has weakened with the Euro's introduction. Now I'm always told that if the $US weakens, gold will go up. Well, gold WENT DOWN. All the old certainties seem to be disappearing.

Live Long and prosper.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:14
MoReGoLd (@NOW THIS SOUNDS REALLY SCARY:::::: speculators long 8,174, short 42,760 (AU)) ID#348286:
As of December 29, 1998, released at 3:30 p.m. on January 4, 1999, the commitments for COMEX gold futures show commercial insiders long 106,847, short 69,641; speculators long 8,174, short 42,760. Small traders were long 26,898, short 29,518.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:11
MoReGoLd (@SPOCK) ID#348286:
You say the EURO has not had an effect on Gold.
You gave it one whole day of trading, to make that proclamation!
IMO, we will have the answer, Good or Bad, in about 2 months, or
March/01, whichever may come first.......

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:08
HighRise (CRB A** Backwards) ID#401460:

Copper is now.. @ 6545 CRB 19382
Last NOV it was @7270 CRB 20412

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 19:05
HighRise (DEFLATION) ID#401460:

There has been a lot of deflation in the last couple of months. I have been tracking copper.

Copper is now.. @ 6545 CRB 20412
Last NOV it was @7270 CRB 19382

If no one is buying copper, what are they plumbing all of these new homes with? World demand is down so much even the incredible US housing boom can't help copper.

The US can't carry this much longer.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:55
Spock (Crystal Ball) ID#210114:
Yeah, Kaplan's been bullish on gold for the last 10 months.

Question? Has the price of gold gone up in the past 10 months

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:53
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
XAU/Spot Ratio = .228. The 233 day moving average is .247

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:50
Donald (@Kitco) ID#26793:
Dow/Gold Ratio = 31.95. The 233 day moving average is 29.55

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:48
Crystal Ball (Commitments of Traders) ID#287408:
Hey, how do you like the COT on gold? ( see Kaplan's site ) Incredibly bullish !! In spite of gold being down 70 cents, XAU was up. Still am looking for a juicy rally into next Friday.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:47
Spock (crazytimes (Thanks Spock!!)) ID#210114:
Keep em coming!! It's what you do best!!

No worries Crazytimes. I call 'em as I see 'em. When I see something positive for gold I'll say it. For the time being, there is nothing positive at all. For months I've been told theat the Euro will be ggod for gold.

Doesn't look like it........... Gold feel a little more this morning.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:45
Greenstone Gold (James........) ID#428232:

GOLD is not a threat to power and control......

GOLD.....IS the power and control.........

Who is buying all the GOLD that the Central Banks are, or are propossing to sell..........The Enlightened Ones ?!

http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/redbaronndx.html

Note: take the en out of golden

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:41
tolerant1 (Spock, Namaste' gulp and a puff...the US Government has been cooking the books) ID#20359:
for a very long time...to put it on Reagan is so much yada...yada...yada

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:38
Spock (Tantalus 8:54) ID#210114:
Yeah point taken.

However, your snippet was talking about the current US TRADE deficit. I and Lester Thurow were talking about the GOVERNMENT debt. I was making the point that Kitcoites love to bash Clinton because of the government debt, but it was in fact Reagan who was responsible.

Live Long and Prosper.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:37
crazytimes (Thanks Spock!!) ID#344326:
Keep em coming!! It's what you do best!!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:35
Spock (Another nail in the coffin?) ID#210114:
``It is still too early to say because the euro has not seen any crisis. But in the long term, central
banks may consider the euro as an alternative and that may put pressure on gold.''

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:34
Greenstone Gold (Africanminer...) ID#428232:

In the URL address, take the en out of Golden.....

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:34
Greenstone Gold (Africanminer...) ID#428232:

In the URL address, take the en out of Golden.....

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:30
MM (Aha) ID#347167:
Goldcorp Secured US$60 Million Red Lake Mine Financing
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/990104/goldcorp_r_1.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:26
Greenstone Gold (Afrcanminer............) ID#428232:

From an ex-African ( Scots ) miner........

http://www.golden-eagle.com/research/redbaronndx.html

Some bed time reading......

Och aye the nooooooooooooo...........

Haggis

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:25
EJ (Speed) ID#45173:
Ditto. My Morgans have done great since April will go up a lot toward the end of the year, then fall back. When to sell depends on whether there's a mania for them or a steady increase as has been the case. If there's a mania, I'll sell before Y2K, before prices collapse. If not, I'll sell after.
-EJ

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:23
dirt (Rocky Top, this market or song of Vols) ID#215379:

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:20
tolerant1 (Bob Dylan could write a song about the irony of the term nothing sucks like a big orange) ID#20359:
considering the game tonight...cheers or jeers...wonder who is gonna gettem...

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:18
ERLE (Kaplan is bullish,) ID#190411:
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
.
The old Kitco hangup at end of transmission is back.
Remember to hit the stoplight, or hold down the escape key if the traffic signal doesn't go off.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:18
dirt (Sorry, I meant 40 as of 12-31-99) ID#215379:

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:15
buff (Goldcorp news all positive.) ID#66144:
Red Lake funding package in place. It will be faster if you look up the news on Reuters

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:14
HighRise (RidgeRunner - The Game) ID#401460:

I hate to say this, but we are kinda hoping you loose.

How about those Buckeyes! number ONE ?

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:11
MM (Retearivs (?) r.e Goldcorp) ID#347167:
No press releases yet... ( but K1 is so slow there might be one now... )
http://www.sedar.com/dynamic_pages/assoc_docs_e/d00002830.htm

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:10
dirt (Silver prices ?) ID#215379:
Anybody help me with todays price action in silver ?
Did SWC split recently ? My data base shows close of 40 yesterday and 26 15/16 today.
Thanks

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 18:00
Speed (bottom$) ID#9337:
Prices for Morgan silver dollars are steadily going up at EBAY. I'm buying now and plan to sell when the price peaks in the fall prior to the Y2K mess. Once we get to January 4-5 in 2000, and nothing bad has happened, this stuff is going to be dumped with a vengeance, so don't fall in love with those pretty silver coins. ; ) I plan to keep some maples and eagles in case I'm wrong.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:57
Ridgerunner (Slooow KITCOOO) ID#356379:
Bart, we love you man! But something is screwing up our beloved KITCO. Access is incredibly slow. Too many old electrons in storage?

I miss how fast it was after the last big clean-up. The computer literate among us may have some suggestions.

Back to the still.

GO VOLS!

RidgeRunner

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:55
crazytimes (@ Crazytimes has the key...) ID#344326:
Cobra, You mean it's not the Golden Dumbells?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:44
Cobra (Crazytimes...Your post of 17:28) ID#34459:
Everyone on Kitco, Crazytimes has come up with the Key.
You must check out the URL he posted at 17:28 for your own financial well being, this is very serious stuff that coinsides with the price action we saw today in the markets, This action in the OEX puts means BIG CHANGE and FAST. Tke heed and go look at his 17:28 Post.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:30
Retearivs (Goldcorp halted) ID#403195:


Anybody with a rumor? Red Lake settled? Takeover offer? McEwen stubbed his toe?



Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:29
Retearivs (Goldcorp halted) ID#403195:
Copyright © 1998 Retearivs/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

+++++

Goldcorp trading halted pending news

Goldcorp Inc G.A
Shares issued 65,789,805 Dec 31 close $8.60
Mon 4 Jan 99 Halt Trading
Trading was halted at 12:48 p.m., Jan. 4, 1998, pending an announcement.
( c ) Copyright 1999 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.canada-stockwatch.com

+++++

Anybody with a rumor? Red Lake settled? Takeover offer? McEwen stubbed his toe?



Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:28
crazytimes (A MUST read...) ID#344326:
Something is brewing...Someone purchased a hell of alot of OEX puts on Thursday..... If the US Markets sink, bonds sink, and the US Dollar sinks.....where will people put their money? Hmmmmmmmm

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990104/2d.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:27
Retearivs (Goldcorp halted) ID#403195:
Copyright © 1998 Retearivs/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

+++++

Goldcorp trading halted pending news

Goldcorp Inc G.A
Shares issued 65,789,805 Dec 31 close $8.60
Mon 4 Jan 99 Halt Trading
Trading was halted at 12:48 p.m., Jan. 4, 1998, pending an announcement.
( c ) Copyright 1999 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.canada-stockwatch.com

+++++

Anybody with a rumor? Red Lake settled? Takeover offer? McEwen stubbed his toe?



Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:13
Cobra (Intraday Price Action.....) ID#34459:
Was quite revealing today, XAU held and closed on a strong note, Interest rates are turning back up as I thought they would and what looks like a KEY reversal in the DJAV today at the highs, We are probably seeing the very last Gasp of this long bull market in Tulip stocks and now We will see what happens when the tulip growers see some sure nuff fear. These are prime conditions for the AU to rise, and very soon........
CoBra

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:13
HighRise (International Markets) ID#401460:

Asia very weak this morning, And
What happened to Brazil today, they were way up, closed even. Mexico got hit hard?

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Tonight will be very interesting.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:12
Cobra (Intraday Price Action.....) ID#34459:
Was quite revealing today, XAU held and closed on a strong note, Interest rates are turning back up as I thought they would and what looks like a KEY reversal in the DJAV today at the highs, We are probably seeing the very last Gasp of this long bull market in Tulip stocks and now We will see what happens when the tulip growers see some sure nuff fear. These are prime conditions for the AU to rise, and very soon........
CoBra

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 17:09
Bottom$ (Silver coin prices skyrocket) ID#259221:
Copyright © 1998 Bottom$/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I was in talking to my coin dealer today. The bag of junk silver coins I bought in August ( ? ) of 1997 for $3100 are now worth $4300 though the price of silver is only about $.45 higher than it was then. He was exclaiming how this y2k crowd has forced the prices of coins into the stratosphere even though the silver price itself has been static over the last few months. Maple leaves and American Eagles- especially in the less than one ounce sizes are becoming harder and harder to obtain, he says. Common date silver dollars and even one ounce rounds are also starting to demand a premium that was not there just weeks or months ago.

Therefore, my question to this forum is this: from a profit motive, does it make sense to any of you to buy quantities of common date silver dollars ( and maybe even silver bullion one or ten ounce bars ) due to the likelihood of increased upward price pressure of the y2k scare? It sounds like fundamentals and current prices have been thrown out the window to a certain degree. Any thoughts from any of you pros?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:57
HighRise (africanminer) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The media, who controls the media? The media today is nothing more than a bunch of babbling talking heads trying to maintain their morally and ethically corrupt administration.

They wouldn't even talk about the teen having his DNA checked for a match with the Prez. This is news not a rumor, when it is their guy they call it a rumor. If Bush did this they would be screaming it from the roof tops.

Can't you just hear Jane Fonda ( CNN ) getting all upset about Goldman Sachs and the Rockefellers controling and manipulating the Gold market. She would have people in the streets - nope, I doubt it!

Now screw the producers to maintain the welfare stste - yes, that's Hanoi Jane.

I bet she would be all for helping little old China too.

Come on, CNN ( Ted Turner ) is talking about running for Prez!! First Lady .... Jane Fonda.

HighRise


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:56
crazytimes () ID#344326:
Don't forget fellow goldbugs, Contrarians are ALWAYS right....eventually

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:54
Goldteck (The Indian government would raise customs duty on gold to29.28US/ ounce from 18.30 US dollars/ounce) ID#431200:
Copyright © 1998 Goldteck/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

So black market will be more interesting.The Indian government said on Monday it would raise customs duty on gold imports to 400 rupees per 10 grams from 250 rupees, effective January 5, 1999 Translation The Indian government said on Monday it would raise customs duty on gold imports to 29.28US dollars per ounce from 18.30 US dollars per ounce, effective January 5, 1999 #1 ) One ounce troy=31.1034 grams #2 ) One US=42.49 Indian Rupee ## ( 31.1034grams/ounce ) ( 400rupee/10grams ) USdollar/42.49 rupee ) =29.28 USdollars/ounce ## ( 31.1034 grams/ounce ) ( 250 rupee/10 grams ) ( US dollar/42.49 rupee ) =18.30 US dollars/ounce

 

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:52
africanminer (Indeed these are crazy times!!!) ID#257313:
Japan believes the U.S. is a bubble economy. Normally, I don’t side with our Far Eastern friends but this time I am going to have to agree: http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=mys

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:41
crazytimes (Golden Dumbells...) ID#344326:
are what we need for the gold bull! Watch out gold shorts, HighRise and crazytimes made it to the gym today. Be afraid, be VERY afraid!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:34
HighRise (crazytimes - WORKOUT !!) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Me Too!
Gold is going to FLY, I worked out today.

I also bought some more BEARX, I hope I know what I am doing. If it is of any interest, I have the same scary/ sick feeling now that I had when I was loading up on Apple - just before it doubled.

What the heck, it's only money, and paper at that. Let er rip!

Anyone else notice how the market changes direction about the time Gold is closing.

By the way everyone is trying to blow off the rise in unemployment claims. This is just more proof of how Clinton Admin. fudges the numbers. They are just making up for all of the low numbers they fabricated for months in an attempt to keep public opinion high.

Everyone should go to the gym - me need to be strong in this crazy world. Plus ... Gold is Heavy!

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:25
africanminer (Isure) ID#257313:
Your going to have to post your data again as there is no file at that site.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:20
crazytimes (On todays short lived rally...) ID#344326:
I read on another thread that Japan topped out on the first day of trading, 1990. Hmmmm.....Interesting. I went to YAHOO to confirm and found this chart........

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=my

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:19
Silas_Marner (Silverbaron) ID#286461:
Copyright © 1998 Silas_Marner/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for that URL--I've already bookmarked it, it's very handy.
The problem is that the site just shows a bunch of numbers and
although it says that the data is supplied by the Bank of Canada,
it doesn't explain HOW the figures are calculated.

Does anybody know exactly what the NY spot price really is?
How does the spot-price differ from when you see a price like
Silver -$5.050 Handy & Harman?

Is it the spot price generated by the New York Mercantile
Exchange? If so, shouldn't they have this data online? I'm
confused.

~Silas~

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:11
aurator (The Illinois Enemy Bandit) ID#255284:
Copyright © 1998 aurator/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
cherokee
Isn't that dyna-MO-hum, dyna-MO-hum?

There's a starman, waiting in the sky,
He'd like to come and meet us....
( fergot the rest )

Isn't the point about UFO stuff that it has been part of our human bean phenotype for most of this century? Since HG Wells' Voyage to the Moon? Since Schiaperelli saw canals on Mars? It is inevitable that human beans shall one day be in touch with extra-terrestrial beans. [we could call them ET, or eatie-beans] The Green formula is mathematical proof of eaties. It's that meme word again.


Do ya want some mora?

All
What, though is the probability that human beans and eatie-beans will sit down for dinner on one of the remaining 360 days of 1999?

Perhaps I should start taking a book on this. Yes. I think I can safely begin taking odds of 10:1 against contact with eatie-beans on any specified day in 1999. Minimum wager 1 oz gold. I shall be the stakeholder.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:10
Aragorn III (Allen(USA) ...Hello my old friend!) ID#212323:
Copyright © 1998 Aragorn III/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Is it so distasteful to view gold as a commodity? I can think of no higher praise!

COMMODITY n,
1: an economic good: as
a: a product of agriculture or mining
b: an article of commerce esp. when delivered for shipment
2: something useful or valuable
Gold is a fine financial commodity, distinct from the typical market commodities consumed daily by industrial or edible usage.

Isn't it true enough that the money of modern kind, as received at banks upon cashing a paycheck for example, is distinctly NOT a commodity?

Do not trouble over gold as a commodity so much as having it lumped together with other commodities. Clearly, what is true for copper ( a commodity ) is not necessarily true for butter ( a commodity ) . Every person of able mind knows the truth of it, whether they allow it to be spoken or not. As with the riddle of the chicken and the egg, it is well known that the dollar came after gold--as a unit of account. The difficultly arises from those who lost understanding of the unit, and laziness withal.

Gold is certainly a special commodity, and gold is money.
Not all that passes as money, however, is gold or any form of commodity...a certain shame indeed. Its convertability via economic exchange to gold or any form of commodity will reveal its value. In a system such as we have, this test bears repeating. Again and again. And it bears preparing aginst its inevitable failure. Inevitable.

got excess?
got gold?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 16:07
crazytimes (Doing my share for the gold market...) ID#344326:
The last time I worked-out at my gym, I got back and the POG had soared over 4 dollars that day. That had to be 6 months ago. I havn't worked out since. Today, I knew I needed to do my share for the world gold market, so I went back to the gym.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:53
Isure (africanminer) ID#421269:

Print this and read it, then read it again.

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/pubs/ifdp/1997/582/default.htm

The answer to whats happening lies within this document

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:46
Silverbaron (Silas_Marner ) ID#288466:
Here's a site where you can get historical data. Use Base Currency = Silver Ounce and Target Currency = U.S. Dollar

http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/data.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:44
cherokee (@.....chop-asaki.city..........mike.sheller......you.are.the.MAN!.......glug.glug.glug.kava.is.good!) ID#343449:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee All rights reserved

what a spectacular equities rally.....off like
the proverbial rabbit....speed yet no endurance..

on what day will the liquidity cease to exist?

gold languishes in the doldrums of truth and lies...
lies have created a truth of lies....believed by
the peopleo-for-lunch-bunch...what a meal.........
it is a feast of epic proportions....the feathers await
those gorged upon the flesh of the many....as the romans
dis-gorged from excesses.....and they in turn were dis-gorged
by their own actions.....

'for every action.....there is an equal and opposite reaction'
sir isaac....

this law applies to everything.....the pendulum of life.....
she swings, arc peaked out too high......back into the fray...
man cannot say....stay...it is not the way....we ride upon the
crest of the wave.......or are consumed and carried along as
the flotsam and jetsam we truly are.....this wave is the greatest
ever......

cherokee!;..waxing.the.ssm...offering.the.silver.surfer.silver....dude.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:36
africanminer (If what everyone is saying is true then why does the Fed need the price of gold to be so low?) ID#257313:
Copyright © 1998 africanminer/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
If what everyone is saying is true then why does the Fed need the price of gold to be so low?

Some of you think this is a great thing b/c one can buy AU @ such low prices, others like myself are producers and have to lower production cost. This is done by mining the easiest deposits and curtailing exploration. Which in the long term will reduce supply, especially mine. Everyone thinks there is a conspiracy. If so then prove it! Reuters or CNN would be grateful for your help. Otherwise we are all just guessing.



Aragorn III

No. Longer life will reveal the truth of the matter, so I need say no more in answer on the matter ?

Isure

This should occur 2014 or 2015 and is in the Feds plan for gold. Why?


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:29
Silas_Marner (Getting verification of a silver price) ID#280443:
Copyright © 1998 Silas_Marner/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I'm trying to find out the NY spot price ( closing ) of silver
from Dec-31.

I thought from coming here that it was clearly over $5.00 but
I found a conflicting price from Yahoo at this URL:

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/981231/metals_1.html

It says there:
Silver - $4.988 troy oz., N.Y. Merc spot Thu.

But Kitco never gave me any hint of it dropping below $5.00
at anytime on Thursday. Who do I believe?

For that matter, where can I find simple closing price info
in a simple text-format, day by day? I would think that
Kitco would have this data readily available, and maybe I'm
kinda dense, but I just can't find it here.

Thanks
~Silas~

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:22
cherokee (@.......it.will.be.chaos.and.flux.that.will.move.the.pog!!!!!.......they .are.relative....) ID#343449:
Copyright © 1998 cherokee/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

crumpled...

get over it.......NOW...dbgb!

here just for you.....

http://www.wolflodge.org/1/sc2.htm


pictures....from goes satellite......gov't operated...

elf signals......un-explainable......from elfrad.....not gov't operated..

magnetic analomies......explainable....new astral bodies in our solar system.....from MANY different sources.....gov't and independent corroboration......

one of them plots to intersect earth orbit june '99.......
now.......hum on that...

or this...
dyno-hum....dyno-hum......frank zappa....

cherokee!;..looking.up....seeing.smoke.and.mirrors....

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:21
MM () ID#347167:
Sakakibara says US economy bubble-like - Nikkei
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990104/yo.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:06
Allen(USA) (Highrise (Why gold does not rise when commodities do.)) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1998 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Because gold is not a commodity. It is money. It is manipulated by those who fear its ability to disrupt the world financial system by casting/focusing doubt on that system. Those who have a vested interests in supressing it are in New York. Like the London Gold Pool in the 1960's there is a cabal of interests which is trying to buy time. That is all. They know it can not be forestalled forever, but just buying time is good enough for them. Its about positioning. Its about knowing when things will change and how they will change and being in a position to use change for one's own benefit. Sort of like letting go of the 'tug-of-war' rope when the other team is in full pull mode.

The pop overnight in Asia is a signal that this gold market has underlying upside. $288 to $296. That's alot of pressure and movement. There are two parties here; the US government using Goldman to sell down and everyone else who has two cents in their mental bank account. At a certain point resistance to increases will fade away. Once this is known, then we will see what we have been waiting for.

Go gold!!!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 15:01
James (Indians increase duty on AU@I've iterated & reiterated many times that all) ID#252150:
CBs by definition, see Au as the biggest threat to their power & control.
They will continue to do everything in their power to discourage Au as an alterative to their paper.
260 is starting to look like a distinct possibility.
Sometime within the next few months I expect Brazil to devalue & crash the equity mkts. If that occurs & does'nt push POG sharply higher, then, IMO, there is no hope for POG.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:50
beanzngold (Jo Anne) ID#212173:
@Mooney* - as I understand it, Jo Anne was/is a contributor to csy2k who pointed out that y2k problems would surface in y1k999 as programmes running then ( but dealing with non-calendar years, such as financial years ) would need to look beyond the rollover ( though within their programme year ) to find, and bring home, problems.

The impressive Nick@Consequences would know, hanging there as he did/does.

Just heard TV head describe our society as four meals from anarchy. Perceptive.

Got community?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:45
Aragorn III (africanminer--14:05) ID#212323:
No. Longer life will reveal the truth of the matter, so I need say no more in answer on the matter but shall merely repeat...no.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:39
Isure (@ africanminer @ your 14.05) ID#421269:

This should occur 2014 or 2015 and is in the Feds plan for gold.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:31
Earl (Sharefin:) ID#227238:
If our y2k fears turn out to be realized, rest assured that you will have been responsible for helping many adjust to a very uncomfortable period.

A tip o' the fedora to you ..... and all the best in '99 and beyond.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:10
Mooney* (@Cage Rattler and Rhody and All) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
All - Question. - If the Japanese yen is appreciating rapidly against the American Dollar where do I borrow a couple of Million American Dollars at those low Japanese rates to convert the American into Japanese? One year from now pay back the American loan ( after converting the yen back into dollars - sounds like a plan for 99! )
You can fool too many of the people too much of the time. --- James Thurber
Cage Rattler - What do you mean strange looking craft - I see spaceships on Star Trek all the time. They come in all different shapes and sizes and those ones look pretty normal to me! ( But hide your gold just in case. )
Rhody - This one's for you! What you don't know will always hurt you.
---First Law of Blissful Ignorance

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:06
Cage Rattler (Wires announcement of my story posted earlier re Indian gold import duties) ID#33184:
NEW DELHI ( AFX ) - The Indian government said it will raise customs duty on gold imports by 60 pct to 400 rupees for every 10 grammes. The increase, effective tomorrow, is aimed at controlling gold imports and raising the country's foreign exchange reserves, the government said in a statement.

It said India imported 575 tonnes of gold in the first 11 months of 1998, an increase of 28 pct from a year earlier.

Officials said the government expects the increase in customs duty to draw additional revenue of nearly 60 mln usd.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:06
sharefin (Mooney - Jo Anne Effect) ID#284255:
-
http://www.computerpro.com/~phystad/jae.html
http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Vault/1157/jo-anne.htm
http://www.angelfire.com/mn/inforest/hamasaki798.html
http://www.nj.com/news/times/stories/10-26-MVRBFHTB.html

I'm starting to hear whispers coming in about the Jo Anne effect cutting in. And they're coming from all over the place in many different sectors.
Some data has vamosed into the never-never - gone forever.

-------------------------
Big and yellows aren't what they used to be.^o-o^

Email whisper......
On New Year's Eve, one of the BHP Info. Techn. guys here in Perth admitted that BHP were shutting the large haul tractors down at Yr 2000, due to the computers on the Truck engines. Which we discussed six months ago!

---------------------------
And this one should cut to the quick.
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Tip/Lord/lord9901.htm

---------------
And as for looking backwards from a forwards position.....
http://www.wavetrader.com/Slexamp1.gif

Guess he is a smart laddy.
Did he take profits

------
Email chatter:

Happy New Year to all!

Things are beginning to break...

Last year I stated that Y2K is not a Year 2000 problem, it is a Year 1999
problem and evidence is already coming in to support that.

Strap yourself in folks...it's going to be a wild ride into the Year
2000...

( If any of the links below are 'broken', just copy & paste the entire link
to your browswer )

---------------------------------
1999 computer glitches hit Sweden
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990102/V000309-010299-idx.html
---------------------------------
ABC News chart of where countries stand in their Y2K readiness
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/y2kcountries981228.html
---------------------------------
FOX News reports glitches to begin in 1999
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/scitech/123198/y2k.sml
---------------------------------
Chevron and AT&T admit Y2K failure inevitable
http://www.pathfinder.com/money/plus/news/nwsinside.oft?mode=bwire&storyid=RB/1998Dec31/628.html
---------------------------------

Yesterday I had a long conversation with a man who works on cell phone
systems. He said flat out that two household name cell phone service
providers ( BIG names ) will not be ready in Jan 2000. He should know...he's
up to his neck in helping them try to fix the problem. He was asked to
head up their Y2K task force. He declined.

He mentioned his concern over the way his contracts are written. All the
contracts basically say, We'll fix the problem, but, if we don't, we're
not liable for any problems you may incure.

---------------------------------

Folks, if at this late hour you're still not convinced that Y2K is going
to be a serious problem then stay tuned...you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Can you afford to wait before getting the things you'll need to prepare?

-Pastor Chris

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:05
africanminer (Price of gold @ fair value.....my conclusion: YES) ID#257313:
Is it possible that gold is price @ what the market will bear. Basic supply and demand, the producers continue to forward sell their gold @ market prices as their cost per oz. fall lower and lower. obviously if cost per oz. were increasing the price the producers would be willing to sell would rise. My conclusion is when all the cheap gold is mined out then POG will begin to rise. Its the producers fault for not organizing better and basically shorting their own interests by forward selling production. When they finally are out of business it will be to late.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:04
2BR02B? (Rumpled) ID#266105:

Serious? Of course. It's important to keep an open mind
so that just about anything can crawl in and breed.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:03
El Borak (Mooney - Jo Anne Effect) ID#230155:
The Jo Anne Effect deals with accounting software where fiscal year boundaries cross 2000. It has come to mean any system which must look ahead beyond 2000 at any time this year ( like your insurance policy, issued this year, which expires next ) .

It's named after Jo Anne Slaven, a Canadian accountant who hangs out in comp.software.year-2000.

Copyright 1999 El Borak, inc. Makers of Lice Krispies, 100% natural breakfast cereal. Picked by hand for that special taste.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:02
longj (Dollar troubles) ID#30345:
-
Weakening US economy forcast in japan
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/AC/TNKS/Nni19990104D04JFF07.htm

weakening dollar in japan
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/AC/TNKS/Nni19990104D04JF535.htm

fed reserves pumping out the door
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990104/rr.html

whitehouse in denial
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990104/py.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 14:02
Cage Rattler (I feel it is my duty blah ... blah ... blah ...) ID#33184:
Sun Jan 03 1999 12:43 Rumpled ( Clinton dates Newt's lesbian sister. )
Sun Jan 03 1999 12:37 Rumpled ( Looks like dem alien fellers already landed! )

Last two posts were on topic were clearly meant to be viewed through gold-tinted glasses I suppose ...

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:58
Rumpled (@2BRO2B---You Serious) ID#411251:


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:55
TechTrader (Great Arbitrage Oppurtunity) ID#372180:
Just think of the arbitrage ability of the sun cruiser people...buy low on earht and sell high on planet Oro...ruled by lord Au. Don't sell out to these slimy beings....keep your gold!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:51
2BR02B? (Rumpled) ID#266105:

The little green men are coming to take one's gold.
I've stashed mine with the Bigfoots for safekeeping.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:51
TechTrader (UFO's to buy gold!) ID#372180:
I beleive the aliens are coming to take advantage of low gold prices here on Earth and buy at a discount.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:48
Rumpled (I feel it is my obligation, to remind some people, that this is a Gold Discussion site,) ID#411251:
and not the place to post UFO nonsense! Thank you for your support.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:38
tolerant1 (Cage Rattler, Namaste' gulp and a puff to ya...the SunCruiser folks and the Wolf Lodge) ID#20359:
people seem to prove one thing powerfully...the old ones and the new ones are a bunch of money grubbing bastards...


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:17
Cage Rattler (Sun Cruisers - forgot to paste link - see below) ID#33184:
http://www.wolflodge.org/1/sc.htm

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:08
plaintalker (Electronic snail:) ID#225147:
Why is KITCO soooooooo Sloooooooow lately?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:04
Chrisophilos (Kyoto Revisited: The Hypocritic Oath) ID#277302:
Copyright © 1998 Chrisophilos All rights reserved
The big boys gathered, and reassured themselves
Of the need to protect the Great Bubble;
Vowed to stabilize, curtail, even reduce emissions
Spoke of rights to buy each other's unused emissions,
There would be no omissions: All would have a quota
For the right to burn to high heaven
The hydrocarbon remains of our ancestors.
And burn them we do, with abandon mindlesness
In our internal combustion engines and power plants;
And whatever we don't burn, we fashion into
Deadly chemicals and plastics; and when they
Escape or burn, they burn us back;
Unleashing vile toxins, bubbles over our cities:
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons ( PAHs ) ;
Volatile Organic Compounds ( VOCs ) ;
Polychlorinated Biphenyls ( PCBs ) ;
Clorofluoro-Carbons ( CFCs ) ;
Dioxins and Furans; the deadliest carcinogens
Detectable....so far: these are the airborne
Poisons that taint our own mother's milk;
They are the root causes for all our cancers:
And all our doctors should know, or oughta know
This Truth, and must speak out as one
To try and STOP THE MADNESS.
One litre of oil is now worth roughly
An American nickel; an irreplaceable resource,
Brewing for millionnia, is worth a decilitre
Of Coke; a centilitre of cheap wine; a rapidly
Dropping, evaporating millilitre of hoarded
And whor'd Y2K Champagne;
Nous buvons a notre exuberance irrationelle...Non?
Oil is a Geopolitical resource, and should be controlled
But not so irresponsibly manipulated, solely to
Satisfy and justify our irrational exuberance.
Flooding the Globe with cheap oil, is no way
To limit its abuse; it only undermines our efforts
To embrace alternative, environmentally benign forms
Of energy, as we foolishly continue to test
Mother Nature's patience; and She continues
To show us signs, that her patience is indeed
Wearing thin; especially at the Poles:
We test her limits, attempt to control her,
Defy her, ignore her, all in the name of progress,
For the glory of productivity gains;
Blind, deaf and dumb we step into the ring
To challenge her undisputed title
Of Great Equalizer.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 13:02
Cage Rattler (Way, way off topic - The Sun Cruiser) ID#33184:
Pictures of strange objects close to the sun

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 12:41
Cage Rattler (@SDRer - euro reference rates) ID#33184:
FRANKFURT ( AFX ) - The European Central Bank gave its first euro/dollar exchange reference rate, putting the euro at 1.1789 usd. The euro was also put at 133.73 yen, 0.711 stg and 1.6168 sfr.

On Thursday, EU officials gave the last reference rate for the ecu of 1.16675 usd, 132.80 yen, 0.705455 stg and 1.60778 sfr.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 12:24
Mooney* (@Cage Rattler @ Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:39) ID#350194:
But Cage Rattler - We all know that fundemental news NEVER affects the market - Don't We? ;- ) ( Seems that the only fundemental news that has been ALLOWED to affect the market in the last few years have been negative fundementals - not the positives. )
This has got to be the biggest new negative news dragging Gold down in the near term. Perhaps we will now test the lows, form a triple bottom, and take off - To The Moon!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 12:17
Cage Rattler (Dollar still going one way against yen - and it ain't up) ID#33184:
$/yen = 111.58

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 12:13
crazytimes (So let me see if I have this right....) ID#344326:
The US dollar is sinking, 30-Year Bonds are sinking, ALL commodity futures are up, and gold is DOWN?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:54
Cage Rattler (Blind leading the blind - euroland statistics) ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
PARIS ( AFX ) - Statistics institute Insee said the unemployment and jobs statistics collated for the 11 euro zone countries are insufficiently harmonised and cover too many different parameters between countries.

In a review of the euro zone statistical apparatus, Insee said the quality of external trade data for the 11 euro zone countries has also deteriorated since the advent of the single market in 1993. Whereas the total of imports and exports within the euro zone should theoretically be zero, it showed a deficit of 48 bln eur in 1996, Insee said.

Other economic data, such as those on consumer attitudes and business activity across various sectors, are among the strong points of the system, it said.

There has also been extensive effort to harmonise consumer price data, it said.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:51
Cage Rattler (Euro - One world stock market ?) ID#33184:
BRUSSELS ( AFX ) - The introduction of the euro will put pressure on markets to converge, said Olivier Lefevre, president of the Belgian bourse. I will decline to comment on on-going discussions between European bourses.

But obviously, the euro will put lots of pressure on markets to converge structurally, Lefevre said.

The real challenge is to combine all the blue chips into a pan-European bourse, or indeed a world-wide bourse, with second, regional bourses for smaller stocks, he said.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:45
Cage Rattler (Dollar plunging - $/JPY hits 111.89) ID#33184:
Also - U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond Extends Loss To Full Point

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:44
HighRise (TVX) ID#401460:

@YAHOO
TVX
11:19AM
1 13/16
+1/16
+3.57%
79,600

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:42
Novice (Earl: SWC) ID#375108:
Stillwater split three for two at the close last week.

Gold sux.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:39
Cage Rattler (Breaking: Bad news for gold) ID#33184:
Government of India has raised the import duty on gold by Rs 150.00 per 10 grams. ( $1 = 42.57 rupees )
This is bad news for gold since India is the largest consumer of gold ( nearly 25% of the world production ) . The last time the govt took such a measure, gold fell down in the international markets since they expect less demand from India.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:27
HighRise (Web site info ?) ID#401460:

Some of the webb sites don't seem to be keeping up with the markets. Still on holiday or stuck in the snow.

We have people still stuck in New Orleans. How about those Buckeyes?

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:26
Mooney* (Joanna Effect, the Changing World and Volatility) ID#350194:
Copyright © 1998 Mooney*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Selby - Thanks for the vote of confidence yesterday. Sorry I didn't even attempt to predict the Grey Cup final score this year, should have kept my streak alive. ;- ) Your hope that the world will change this year is hereby granted. After all - there's nothing we can do to stop it - is there? Someone yesterday was repeating the touted bank line of more of the same - low commodity prices ( included Gold/Silver/etc. ) and a minor stock market correction. Yada Yada Yada. Sorry folks. It ain't gonna happen that way. Too many opposing forces that have to be reconciled. Mooney's 1999 Predictions Continue With:
Rapidly Increasing Volatility on All Fronts!

ALL - Did we ever find out what the Joanna Effect refers to precisely, or is the reference to Dylan's 66 song - IT?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:26
Charles Keeling (@ Speed RE: TVX) ID#344225:
I am showing TVX at 1 9/16. However, it looks like it may have stopped trading. Nothing has passed the tape since 10:29 Eastern time, and my screen shows no bids or quotes.

Could be a major news announcement coming

I understand that 9 companies have expressed interest in TVX. Hold on for a quick 4 bagger.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:24
Earl () ID#227238:
What's with SWC. They're quoted at 27 3/8. Did they have a dilution or stock split?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:24
Elroy (Speed re: TVX) ID#228134:
TVX on the TSE is actually up .03 so I think there may be a problem with the qoutes you have been receving. Anyhow, good luck.
Regards Elroy,

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:23
jinx44 (Font patch for euro symbol---download site) ID#57290:
Be the first on your block............


http://www.microsoft.com/windows95/downloads/contents/wurecommended/S_WUFeatured/w95EuroPatch/w95europatchread.asp

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:23
Speed (TVX) ID#9337:
Quote.Com shows that 2 - 1000 share lots were moved at a price of 7/8. Then the trading stopped, then picked up at 1 13/16 ( ask ) . I give up.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:22
Tyro (Speed@TVX) ID#36977:
My broker shows TVX at 1 13/16, with day's low at 7/8. Someone probably forgot to put the 1 in their ask, and some lucky person got a bargain.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:21
HighRise (TVX) ID#401460:

I dunno what happened, maybe someone got smart and realized that if gold can't go up in this environment - it never will.

Those in the DOW should be worried about gold's weakness - DEFLATION and maybe Depression

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:19
BUFFORD (@SPEED SCHWAB REAL TIME SHOWING 1 /11/16) ID#263262:
BUT IT WOULD BE MY LUCK BECAUSE I LOADED UP ON TVX LAST WEEK

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:15
HighRise (Brazil) ID#401460:
Copyright © 1998 HighRise/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
razil
Bovespa Index
^BVSP
11:18AM
7031
+246
+3.63%

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:14
Speed (TVX disaster) ID#9337:
Anybody know why TVX just dropped 50%?

I'm showing price of 7/8 on both Yahoo and quote.com


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 11:11
HighRise (US $ and Gold?) ID#401460:

US $ DOWN and as expected all commodities are up, CRB +2.41, BUT what about Gold? Gold which is also valued in US $ is down - no surprise!

Boy is this market rigged.

I should have never got into this mess.

Does this mean that Gold is not valued in US $s?

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:47
rhody (@ ALBERICH: I agree with you. Any movement of the financial) ID#408236:
center of gravity of the world away from the United States, but
particularly towards Europe, can only benefit gold.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:42
ALBERICH (Manipulation of the Gold Price) ID#212197:
Copyright © 1998 ALBERICH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
How does the Euro influence the scenario?
So far, nothing seems to happen.
I do not expect that the Euro will not have a big impact on the financial markets. I assume this event will cause some earthquakes, because I do not expect the financial power blocks of US/U.K. and Continental Europe to be in any kind of pound-cake harmony. Neither are the Asiatic financial powers like China and Japan happy with the continuation of the status quo. I expect change, and I do not believe that the CBs are a homogenous block either. The CBs will develop a different strategy towards gold, which is not directed by the FED. Or else, we would have alredy have reached a kind of financial One World dictatorship. I assume there are very tense contradictions in the working and the different powers will act in a non-homogenous manner. That will be good for gold and silver. IMHO.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:34
jinx44 (RJ's cable modem) ID#57290:
You sure know how to make a fellow envious!!!!!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:32
lsc (Hard assets) ID#278287:
To all of you buggers out there.
Have a look at Rock Of Ages[ROAC] I own it.Believe me it is a great little co.,a real undiscovered money maker. Call the co.they are in Graniteville,VT.and get an investors package and makeup your own mind
802 476 3121.Or go to their website www.rockofages.com.Nothing lasts longer than granite.Regards

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:23
NTEOTWAWKI (Monday morning goldbug dance.) ID#389387:
La Cucaracha, crush them little critters.
Gold down in it's little drain pipe channel.
Silver banged down below $5.00. Again.
Platinum down.
Rhodium. Best performer.
DOW up. No hangovers for equities this morning.
NASDAQ way up. Internauts in boost phase.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:21
Cyclist (nem) ID#339274:
sold nem 17 3/4,weak sister.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:10
Cage Rattler (World economies slowing down) ID#33184:
NAPM PMI came in weaker than expected and German and UK indexes, which came out earlier, also remain firmly under 50. Slowing world economy, especially manufacturing, is not confined to the US.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:10
RJ (..... I'm still getting e-mail .....) ID#22849:
Copyright © 1998 RJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

At my old e-mail address, which I will keep active for only another week.

Please address all future correspondence to rjgold@home.com

OK

Strad -
I signed up with @Home - which is being supplied by Cox Communications. They come in and install a 10 base T card and run the cable ( the same cable your TV comes through ) to your computer. Total cost per month, about $45. This is comparable to the cost of a dedicated phone line and ISP combined. One nice thing is that you never turn of the cable modem; no waits whist logging on. Launch Netscape and, blip, blip, bloop, you are online in about 3 seconds.

Speed is limited by the sending sight, so I have noticed some slowness in Kitco at times. But the speed is so great on these cable modems, the big sites, like CNN, load in about a second or two, even with all those graphics. No busy signals, no drooped connections because of line noise, I like it. The same service should be available in your area.

Platinum is scraping up against the $365 resistance I mentioned a couple weeks ago. A $10 drop from here would make me more comfortable, not less. Gold will founder for a couple-o-weeks before a sustained rally can take hold. Silver still looks strong.

And that is

OK





Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:04
Gollum (XAU) ID#424140:
Some activity by shorts in the metals, but the equities are looking up...

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 10:00
Cyclist (nem) ID#339274:
long 17 3/4 ,difficulty with Kitco side

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 09:44
crazytimes (UUUGGGG!!) ID#344326:
Gold down? Another point for the People of the Fiat?

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 09:32
MoReGoLd (@AU Manipulation) ID#348129:
I one buys into the belief that the Gold price is and has been manipulated, then most certainly the POG will not rise with any major planned events such as the Euro launch. To keep the maniplulation on track, under no circumstances must it appear that Gold is benefitting.
Looks like there are 2 scenarious where the POG can rise:
1. The manipulation is abandonned.
2. There is MAJOR unexpected demand, where even the public finds reason to scramble and invest in Gold.

In both cases it will result in Major price increases.
Patience.........

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 08:56
Isure (250 here we come) ID#421269:

You notice that Donalds article points out , Gold to be pressured lower by Euro. Not the dollar but gold to be affected, oink, oink!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 08:54
Tantalus (@Spock's 03:47 Clinton/Reagan bashing. See Donald's Goldilocks post.) ID#317211:
Source: U.S News by Phillip J. Longman and Jack Egan.

The U.S. trade deficit rose an estimated $160 billion in 1998-
a record shortfall that, as a share of the U.S. economy, is larger
than the much criticized Reagan-era trade deficits.

I guess you can name any US prez, and we can go dig up good or bad
economic numbers to suit any political agenda. - Regards

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 08:54
Cage Rattler (Is the Kitco Backup site working ? ) ID#33184:
http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~limweech/kitco.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 08:52
POLARBEAR (new RANGY slides) ID#183109:
http://www.geocities.com/~polarbear47/tempslides.htm

They may take a while to download...

Net Asset Value recalculated. Book NAV now at $3.33 as of 25 Dec 98.

Closed Friday at 1 3/8.


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 08:10
Donald (Will the bears eat Goldilocks in 1999?) ID#26793:
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/990111/11outl.htm

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 08:00
Donald (London morning gold news; Euro success will put gold under pressure etc.) ID#26793:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990104/cj.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:52
Speed (Highrise) ID#29048:
I pulled the number from Bloomberg TV this a.m. Interesting move on Globex last night too. It was down 5 and then spun sharply around and moved up. Oh well, away to the day job.....BBML

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:51
THC (Gold up display problem) ID#367411:
Here in Japan Bloomberg had gold up to around $296 ( $293? ) or so in the morning, but it went back below $290 soon after.....

FWIW

THC

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:45
Cage Rattler (Last post 07:39 was about opinion on dollar outlook) ID#33184:


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:40
HighRise (Speed (Fed Funds question)) ID#401460:

If that is true, it looks like the Fed is trying to help member banks?

Last night somebody said Bloomberg had Gold up $6.

HighRise

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:39
Cage Rattler () ID#33184:
Copyright © 1998 Cage Rattler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The influential US economist and director of the Institute for International Economics Fred Bergsten said in an article published in today's International Herald Tribune that Europe's new currency will soon rival the dollar as the world's leading currency and the transition period could see a sharp decline in the dollar's value. He said The euro will start to challenge the dollar as the world's lead currency as soon as the ECB and the new currency establish their credibility, which will probably be quite soon. He continued by saying that During the transition period, conversions into euro assets could produce a sharp decline in the exchange rate of the dollar. The sheer size and trading clout of the euro bloc would bolster the new currency, which would in turn ensure liquidity and low transactions costs and encourage foreigners to use the currency for investment and trade purposes. The former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury argued, however, that a successful and strong euro could ultimately be a positive development for the US. He added that a decline in the dollar's value would help to cut the huge US trade deficit, but warned that the loss of the dollar's reserve currency status would make it costlier for the US to borrow the foreign capital needed to finance chronic external imbalances. He said It could trigger a dollar crisis if Americans fail to keep their house in order.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:33
Speed (Fed Funds question) ID#29048:
Bloomberg shows the Fed funds rate down to 1% from 5%, an 80% drop. Isn't this the rate charged to member banks for money? Is this a liquidity problem signal or is it insignificant?



Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 07:08
Mike Sheller (hmmmmmmm) ID#348257:
almost half the
economists surveyed nominated Wall Street as the big risk in
1999.

Looks like we're headed for Dow 12000!

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 06:52
Greenstone Gold (Jack....) ID#428218:

You may wish to source additional info thru'......

http://goldsheet.simplenet.com/

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 06:45
Auric (European Markets Roaring) ID#257312:

Euro launch proceeding smoothly. http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 06:28
Greenstone Gold (Jack.....) ID#428218:
Copyright © 1998 Greenstone Gold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Normandt currently have a substantial stake in Great central Mines ( 19.6%, with GCM having placed 25.4 million shares at AU$ 2.45 each ) . Normandy agreed to provide GCM with a special purpose facility of up to AU$ 155 million to asssist financing take overs ) . The loan was to be repaid in a combination of cash and securities, which could result in NYD owning up to 25% of GCM.

Homestake and Normandy a JV partners at the Superpit in Kalgoorlie. At this time, there are no rumours in kalgoorlie concerning a merger. There is presently a planned expansion of production to 1 Moz per annum from the Kalgoorlie operations.

There was some talk about a year ago concerning a merger between Homestake and Gencor of South Africa, but nothing came from it.

Aye,

Haggis


Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 04:04
Jack () ID#253298:
A while back posts appeared on both SI's and Yahoo's message boards about a possible merger between Homestake and Normandy Mining, both posts referred to Credit Suisse First Boston as the source and originated in Sidney, Australia. Also Joseph Gutnick's Great ( ? ) was mentioned as being involved. Do any Australian posters have any updates on the rumour.
Such a company would be about a 5 million ounce producer.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 04:03
THC (To Jim re PD Guru & Silver Riches) ID#367411:
Thanks for the update.....

I guess that is what to expect.....he is correct......the quick path to riches will not work 99% of the time....and even if one succeeds once, it will probably never be repeated in the same lifetime. However, if I ever do it I can probably make another million afterwards selling video tapes and books about How I made $1M Last Year Pyramiding Silver Options ( ggg! ) .

Thanks,

THC

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 04:00
Spock (Beware Wall Street) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
http://www.theage.com.au/daily/990104/bus/bus4.html

Downturn on Wall Street big risk ahead

By PHILLIP HUDSON
ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT

The overvalued United States sharemarket poses the greatest
risk for investors in the year ahead, and any severe correction
could drag down the Australian economy, according to The Age
economic survey.

While the most pressing domestic concerns are the rising current
account deficit, a rapid change in the value of the dollar, and the
implementation of the goods and services tax, almost half the
economists surveyed nominated Wall Street as the big risk in
1999.

Mr Rob Henderson, from Dresdner, said Wall Street was
``overvalued on practically all measures used by equity
analysts''. Using historical data by the Australian National
University academic Professor Adrian Pagan - who is a member
of the Reserve Bank board - Mr Henderson said the chances of
the US bull market continuing ``are getting very low''.

The Westpac analyst Mr Bill Evans noted concern about
``irrational exuberance'' in the US stockmarket while many
others simply said 1999 would be the crunch year when the
bubble would burst and the US economy would slow.

The other flashpoints to watch, according to the experts, include
economic troubles in Brazil and Russia, the continuing sluggish
performance of Japan, how the troubled South-East Asian
economies perform, and whether China is dragged into the
financial crisis.

The wildcard for 1999 comes from Mr Craig James, from
Colonial State Bank, who suggested plunging oil prices could
spell the end of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
Countries.

``If oil prices fall further, then the contagion spreads to the
Middle East with pressure for devaluations, the collapse of
OPEC could be the X factor for 1999,'' he said.

The primary domestic concern is not a slowing of economic
growth but what happens if growth remains strong.

Mr Saul Eslake, from ANZ, summed it up: ``If the Australian
economy does not slow, as almost universally expected, it will
raise renewed concerns regarding the current account deficit and
inflation, with the possibility that interest rates rise rather than
fall.''

Telstra's corporate economist Mr Geoffrey Sims said a
``rapidly'' rising current account deficit would constrain the
Reserve Bank in further cuts to interest rates.

The 33 experts were asked their view on the risk of a recession
in Australia in 1999.

Many said while there would be a recession at some stage, there
was less than a 20 per cent chance of it being in 1999.

The Melbourne Institute's Mr Peter Summers used historical
data to calculate that the possibility of a recession by the end of
1999 was 33.8per cent.

The Victorian Employers' Chamber of Commerce and Industry's
Mr Steven Shepherd was one of the few to mention the GST,
saying business must focus on how tax change would affect
investment strategies.

At the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr
Stephen Kates warned an ACTU wage claim of up to 7 per
cent ``would cause deep problems within Australian industry''.

The Australian Industry Group's Ms Heather Ridout said while
the threat of a recession in 1999 ``seems ridiculous, post 2000
might be another story''.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 03:54
THC (Silver Options) ID#367411:
Copyright © 1998 THC/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Jim & Delphi, thanks for your help!

To Jim:

Someday, silver and gold are going to go...how high who knows. ....I just don't think it is now. ....

OK....perhaps so....but personally, I don't have any faith in my ability to guess what the stock market, exchange rates, or metals will do today, next month, or even this season......however, I can see that fundamentally silver in particular may have the potential for an explosive move IF investment and/or monetary demand returns, and IF inventory levels are consumed to minimal levels.

One can buy options with 1-year of time, so there is a certain amount of time insurance.....for fun I plan to hold the line on level 1 for the next couple of years just to be in the game when it happens.....

Keep thinking big - it's contagious.

Absolutely!!!

Also interested in TAVA as a solution to the embedded chip problemun

Yours truly actually held some TAVA for a while....but I find it risky for the following reasons & sold:
*Will people scared of Y2K want to buy funky software startups with only a little time before Y2K?
*If Y2K is not a huge problem,after Y2K the glow will be gone.
*If Y2K is a huge problem, I would expect more interest in PMs than in software companies....

Just my 2c.

Good luck with SWC!!!

To Delphi:

Thanks for reminding me....I'm pretty sure I can find an option price calculator on the web. I'll look around & see what I find. Thanks!!

THC

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 03:50
Goldbug23 (Envy, I too have come to your view) ID#432148:
after long and deliberate consideration. That doesn't mean I do not believe the strong should not help the weak, I just think government has not solved the problems the way they try to do it. What other ways are there? Charity and MINIMAL government action. The old saying God helps those that help themselves has a lot of merit.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 03:47
Spock (For those who knock Clinton and Worship Reagan.... Yes Reagan the debt builder and closet Keynesian) ID#210114:
Copyright © 1998 Spock/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Reagan called it supply-side economics--a big cut in

taxes and a big increase in defense spending without offsetting cuts in domestic

spending--but in reality it was simply old-fashioned Keynesian economics in drag. It

worked: The economy pulled out of its recession and started expanding.

Since that time all the focus has been on cutting spending and raising taxes to close the

budget deficit and get the national debt ( the Reagan Administration's gift to the future )

under control. Now that the budget has been balanced, fiscal policies have been taken

out of jail.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 03:33
jims (THC - the PD Guru said) ID#253418:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Sometime ago I asked my friend ( who we will refer to as the PD guru ) aboput options. Apart from the normal reason's against there pruchase he mentioned the additonal negative of poor liquidity at the time of exit if the market is really moving. He recited experiences in sugar and oil where the exchanges just stopped taking limit orders. For those who must, he suggested the purchase of in the money options where the option price was less than would be a 10% margin requirement for a three month play. I notice that the May Silver 475 call at $2000 would fall into that category. The object, he told me, was to get a cheap foot hold on a future contract - exercise the option into a future as soon as the premium about gone.

Sorry not much help - affraid he's too conservative for our quick route to riches.....

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 03:20
James (Black Scholes@It worked well for LTCM, so there's no reason.....) ID#252150:
Envy--I appreciate & respect you point of view.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 03:02
Delphi (THC, 02:23 - how to price options in future) ID#258142:
Copyright © 1998 Delphi/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
So called Black-Scholes model is used. It was awarded with Nobel price and gives reasonable approximation. Following data is used:
· price
· option type ( call, put )
· option strike value
· days left till expiration
· current risk-free return on investment ( current interest rate )
· volatility
· annual dividend ( = 0 for silver )
Calculation is bit complicated to post it here, I have a program that does it and can calculate one-two samples for you - I do not remember from what site I have downloaded it. Or you can search for it yourself. In any case, the price will be significantly different depending on time left till expiration, while we don’t know when the rally will happen.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 02:57
jims (THC - Silver Millionaires) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
See you are really thinking about your silver call plans...good for you. Someday, silver and gold are going to go...how high who knows. ....I just don't think it is now. ....notice gold's weak reaction overnight to the falling dollar. Gold and silver rallied big back in the late 70's when there weren't the investment alternatives and hedges there are now. Interest rates were fixed, they didn't float with inflation. There were no index futures. There were no interest rate futures.

I notice in a poll earlier on this page that 78% of respondants ( and there were lot ) think that the DOW will rise 5% or more this coming year. And 75% said the place to be was technology.

Something tells me, that poll tells me something, but it isn't that gold and silver are about to get alot of investment attention. Perhaps being so small they don't need alot, but there is plenty of gold and apparently silver to satisfy current demand, and there has to be a big increase in investment interest in the metals sufficent to squeeze the shorts who are protected by the Central Banks - so it is widely believed - to get a rally going that will attract trend followers.

Still like Stillwater, thinking about a little Pan AMerican Silver, too - if silver twitches I'll probably take the bait here again - only to regret it, probably, but it's at a point where should silver rally it'd set off some buying.

Keep thinking big - it's contagious.

Also interested in TAVA as a solution to the embedded chip problemun

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 02:54
THC (To Jim Re Silver Pyramid) ID#367411:
Just for fun, the next time you talk to the Pd Guru pls ask if he has a strategy for option pyramiding......

Thanks!

THC

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 02:52
BigFisherman (Japan looks ugly tonite) ID#258273:
http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/stphome.html

Guess folks over there are dissapointed that they couldn't hold the line at 14,000 for year end.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 02:27
Envy (@James) ID#219363:
Copyright © 1998 Envy/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Of course you have a point and I won't debate it. I could post facts and figures, thoughts and strategies, etc, to back up my view that big government is bad, that social programs don't work and are wasteful, that individual responsibility is better, etc. Someone else could post facts and figures, thoughts and strategies, etc, to back up their view that local government doesn't work, that individual responbility leaves folks out in the cold, that social programs provide a safety net for all citizens, etc. It could be argued either way until the end of time. What's really at the heart of the debate is what kind of America the citizens of this nation want to live in. No vision of this country is right or wrong, they all have merit. We can live in an America with a strong central government, or a weaker one with more control at the state and local level. We can live in an America that minimizes suffering or or one that minimizes taxes. No particular vision for America is correct despite what Democrats, Republicans, or Anarchists for that matter might say. BUT, as an individual citizen of this country, I get to say what I want just like the next guy. I, Envy, am tired of large government, and I'm tired of high taxes and social programs. Getting rid of these things has advantages and disadvantages. My vision of America has strong individuals of character who have to be responsible, well educated, and think for themselves about what their doing, instead of a collective of like minded people who work exclusively for their mutual benefit. I like individual responsbility and strong citizens and tend to prefer politics that place emphasis on it. That doesn't make my view right, it just makes it mine.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 02:23
THC (To Jim re Silver Call Pyramid Madness) ID#367411:
Copyright © 1998 THC/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Hi Jim!

Thanks for the feedback......I got the idea about the calls from our friend the silvermaster Ray at SI.....remember his words of a millionaire making rally in silver? Well I thought about how a rally to $15 or $20 could make a millionaire out of yours truly......and I couldn't think of any except for the ultimate in leverage......silver calls......another great concept from Ray!

I am completely aware that the odds are 99.9% against me, so pls don't worry about the likelihood of it happening...I'd rather think about how to maximize the likelihood of it. FWIW, currently on the Dec. 99 $6.25 calls.

My current thoughts and what I would love some help with:
*When silver moves, it may move in a way bigger than anyone expects. It is now priced perhaps below $2 in 1970 $'s ( rough visual interpretation of Current Inflation Adjusted Prices silver chart from the Silver Institute ) . As you know it went WAY UP from that level.......

*It is IMPOSSIBLE to time up and down moves in short-term time frames, therefore I would like to adopt the buying time strategy and only go for 1-year or nearly 1-year options.

*Strive to buy at the maximum leveraged price, and sell as the option becomes less leveraged and starts to move with the price of silver.

What I hope someone can help me with is:
*How will the options be priced once silver starts to move towards $10 or so? Will the volatility double the price of options, or more?

*How does one determine the price range ( entry & exit ) for maximum leverage? As from my example, $1M can only be made by pyramiding.....buying & holding during a runaway bull to $15 or more will not take you there unless you risk a lot of seed money. So I hope to buy at max leverage, and sell as the leverage is worn down. How can this sweet spot can be determined?

Thanks and good luck to all!

THC

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 02:03
Delphi (EURO) ID#258142:
Just finished my 'private Euro-conversion': downloaded new codes and option series from the bank and then updated current status of my investment account. Now can stare at my position in Euro. Cool. Options looks funny: I have written several calls in December, for example with strike NLG 55, now it has strike 24.95. It shows it with to digits after decimal point but according to bank in case of settlement 5 digits after decimal point will be used.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 01:58
James (neer-do-well@When the younger generation finally take over the reins) ID#252150:
of power up there, don't go near the ice floes.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 01:44
James (Envy@It's great that you are able to take care of your Mother & Grandmother) ID#252150:
but, unfortunately, people in your position probably only comprise about 20% of your population, IMO. What would happen to all the other Mothers & Grandmothers that don't have well off children?
The Eskimos had a fairly good solution, but I don't think it would go over too well with the bleeding heart liberals.*g*

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 01:35
neer-do-well (privilige) ID#391172:
Copyright © 1998 neer-do-well/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Around here ( Alaska ) opportunity has been coralled by the last generation in the form of permits, individual fish quotas, and sky high property values. Once was a time a kid with a skiff could fish for halibut and salmon and get a start, no more, even federal contracts now go to good ole boys. Just about any reasonable economic activity has been squeezed off by the older crowd, impoverishing the young.

Senior's ( I'm one ) get tax breaks, S.S., free this and that's even monthly bonus checks for no reason except to keep them around to spend thier other income. I've never had it so good. Since I retired as a neer-do-well I've done quite well.

I agree with those who think we have to do a much better job helping the young to get a start...opportunity is the key..level this playing field..eliminate privilige..or we are consumming our own children. Disgusting.

My son does some prospecting, I'm going to encourage him to look for dirt, if he can find some we can sell it, it's in high demand around here. Compost would be even better, the truly good things of life, which support us, gold is nice but not good for much real use. I do like gold tho and will keep what I have until I see a better light.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 01:31
jims (To THC) ID#252391:
Copyright © 1998 jims/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Love your optomism on the silver calls - heck why stop at $17....

Problem with your analysis is the time premiums would go up faster and the call be more expensive than you calculated, and second would you have the gutts to stay with the trade and roll over four or five times risking everything....Would take a straight line move - which we've only had in reverse almost....but you know, because it seems so farfetched it would probably work - go for it......

I did the same thing on my walk this morning, again ( made a million ) also in silver....bought five contracts at $5 using $12,500, bought another every 25 cents higher till $10, then stopped buying more - rode it up to $15 where I had the million, then I sold calls with which I paid the taxes - so easy in fantasy.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 01:17
Squirrel (Dear fellow Kitcoites - I am proud of you!) ID#290118:
Copyright © 1998 Squirrel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
On another forum I just experienced a very heated exchange that resulted in one poster asking the host to banish the topic and yours truly.
The subject was on-topic, but it disagreed with the thin-skinned sensibilities of the offended subscriber. I'm still on the forum - so far. To the host I sent the following by private e-mail. Note that I am talking about our forum here of which I am proud ( even if we do get carried away at times ) .

I've engaged in forums where diverse opinions are welcome - even those
that get nearly all the subscribers lathered up in heated argument over
entrenched philosophical positions. We put up with socialist liberals and
those who believe the moon landings were a farce. We even put up with
people quoting scripture - if it supports their premise, ( but scripture just to proselytize is not welcome for long ) . We put up with both Clinton defenders and bashers. We tell others their ideas are stupid, baseless, and ridiculous. We tell them they've not the experience to know what they are talking about.We rant and we rave. We have food fights. And if it gets too personal, extending to attacks on the person rather than their ideas, then we often agree that it must stop - if only that we are tired of scolling past the invective. Though sometimes the bystanders jump in with humor, sarcasm, and some jibes to both parties to get their attention and cool things off.
BUT
as ticked off as each side gets, we all seem to agree that, regardless of the facts and barbs being slung about, we draw the line at telling someone their comments are not welcome. The first poster who writes something like that immediately draws fire from both sides and even some of the lurkers. We all recognize that we are free to use our scroll buttons or delete keys, that the freedom to express unwelcome opinions is far more important than our injured sensibilities, that the truest test of freedom of expression is our ardent defense of the right to express what we vehemently disagree with - at least as long as we have the freedom to not listen.

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 00:42
Auric (Powerful Magnetic Storm to Hit Earth January 01, 2000) ID#257312:

Here is a 2 month old story from cnnfn using NOAA as their source. The peak of this 11 year solar cycle will be much stronger than the one in 1989, which caused some blackouts in Canada. http://www.cnnfn.com/digitaljam/newsbytes/120235.html

Date: Mon Jan 04 1999 00:12
aurator (All The Gold in The World) ID#257150:
aussiedave
Noone seems to have given you an answer, so I’ll have a stab. It depends what you mean by a trillion, using 150,000 tonnes of precious that is:
4,822,611,360.44 troy oz @ US$287.50 per oz [my calculator spits at me with large nos so we cut off a few {in}significant figures]
= 4,822 m Oz = US$1,386,325 million

But a signficant part of that gold is not available at any price, from church relics and great-grandmother’s riding pin to the Crown Jewels, it ain’t for sale.



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